OKLAHOMA CITY — There is an easy narrative heading into Game 5 of a 2-2 NBA Finals: Can Indiana bounce back from the kind of crushing fourth-quarter comeback loss it has handed so many other teams?
Of course they can — if there is one thing these Finals should have made clear, it's that the Pacers are tough.
"I think we've just got to move on. That's something that we've been good at..." Pascal Siakam said of his team. "I don't look at anything in life as like a missed opportunity. I always know that there's something coming up. You've just got to believe and move on to the next and do everything that we've been doing to get to where we're at today."
However, those Pacers now have to win another game on the road against the physicality and intensity of Oklahoma City on its home court. Indiana's first chance is Game 5, and here are four things to look for in this critical matchup.
Pacers lean into Pascal Siakam
With the intensity and physicality of Oklahoma City's defense taking the flow out of Indiana's offense for stretches, Pascal Siakam has become critical. He is one of only a couple of Pacers who create their own shot in isolation, most get those buckets out of the flow of the offense. It's when that flow breaks down that they turn to Siakam.
Siakam started hot and scored 20 points on 15 shots through three quarters of Game 4, but took just one shot in the fourth quarter, a 3-pointer.
"That can't happen," Pacers Rick Carlisle said. "He is a guy that if we are not playing through him, he needs to touch the ball more."
If Indiana is going to take Game 5 on the road, it's going to have to be a big Siakam night.
3-point shooting variance
We could have said this about roughly 1,000 NBA games this season, but it's especially true in a series like this one, won on the margins:
Making 3-pointers is critical.
Through the first three games, the team with the better 3-point shooting percentage won. The best example was Game 1, where the Pacers shot 46.2% from 3-point range, keeping them close enough to come back and win the game in the end.
Game 4 was different. Oklahoma City shot just 18.8% from 3-point range, but took only 16 shots — they focused on getting into the paint, attacking, and drawing fouls. Indiana attempted 36 3-pointers, with 34 of those being "open" or "wide open" under the NBA's tracking designations, and the Pacers made just 10 of them. That's 29.4% on good looks.
It feels rather simplistic to say "the team that makes its 3s will win," but that is also true.
Alex Caruso’s bigger role for Thunder
Alex Caruso averaged less than 20 minutes a game for Oklahoma City this season, playing more than 30 minutes just twice, and that was by design. The goal was to keep him healthy and fresh so he could be there for the critical moments in the playoffs.
The Finals are as critical as moments get and Caruso has played more than 30 minutes in each of the last two games, and he has scored 20 points in two of the last three games, in addition to his stellar defense.
" I haven't talked about being conservative with him at all this time of year," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. "I think this is the time you've got to do everything you can to try to win the games and pull out all the stops. That's been the mentality. He's been great."
The extra days off during the NBA Finals have helped, but this is the time Caruso wants that extra run.
"These are the games you are judged on," he said on the eve of Game 5. "You can win 68 games like we did, and you lose in the first round and everybody is going to be like, oh, they won 68 they but lost in the first round...
"This is the time of the year that I live for. This is the time of the year where games matter, stakes are high, wins and losses are more important."
Chet Holmgren vs. Myles Turner
Myles Turner has been relatively quiet over the past couple of games for Indiana, which is understandable, as he has played through an illness that has limited him.
"I'm all right. No excuses this time of year, it is what it is," Turner said Sunday. "People get sick all the time. You can't stop the train from rolling. Take it for what it is, take my medicine and get rolling."
Turner had nine points and two rebounds in Game 3, although he made his presence felt with five blocks, including a couple of key ones to stall out Thunder threats late. Then it was 12 points on 3-of-10 shooting and two rebounds in Game 4.
At the same time, Chet Holmgren has looked increasingly comfortable on the Finals stage and taken on a larger and larger role for the Thunder.
If Indiana is going to win two of three and take this series, it's going to need a big Turner game or two. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are the heartbeat of the Pacers' attack, but it needs Turner to outplay Holmgren — like he did in Game 1 of the series — to help get that critical road win.
