There are five teams in the contender tier, the big question heading into the playoffs is could one of the "in the hunt" teams knock a contender off?
Title Contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
(62-16, last week No. 3)
If the ESPN straw poll is to be believed (and it is), Shai Gilgeous Alexander has a massive lead in the MVP race. The Thunder, however, do not have a massive lead in the race for the No. 1 overall seed and need to pick up a few more wins this week to keep the Spurs at bay (San Antonio has the tiebreaker, if it comes to that). If the Spurs win out, the Thunder need to go at least 2-2, not easy with the Clippers, Nuggets and Thunder on the schedule (the game against the Lakers Tuesday is less threatening now). Getting the No. 1 seed in the West matters less for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs (though that helps) and more about avoiding Denver in the second round.
2. Denver Nuggets
(51-28, last week No. 5)
It feels like all season long we've been saying, "If Denver just gets healthy, watch out." Well, they're healthy, have won nine in a row, and if you have any questions just ask the Spurs just how good Nikola Jokic and company are. That Jokic fadeaway over Victor Wembanyama might have been the single best shot of the season. Jokic is on pace to be the first player in league history to lead the league in rebounds and assists (and yet he likely finishes third in MVP voting).
3. San Antonio Spurs
(60-19, last week No. 1)
Victor Wembanyama leaving the Spurs game at half Monday night against Philadelphia with a rib contusion is concerning. That said, this is not an injury that usually keeps players out for long, and Wembanyama needs to play 20+ minutes in just one of the Spurs' games this week to remain eligible for postseason awards. The Spurs have a few questions to answer this postseason, but the loss to Denver brought one into focus: How well will Wembanyama hold up when he has to play 35+ minutes a game in every game?
4. Boston Celtics
(53-25, last week No. 2)
Jaylen Brown is very likely to finish in the top five in MVP voting and get a First Team All-NBA nod for his work this season. He has stepped up his playmaking this season and remained largely healthy — a genuine question coming in — and deserves all the accolades coming his way. Boston is 12-2 with Jayson Tatum in the lineup and will enter the playoffs as the favorites to come out of the East.
5. Detroit Pistons
(57-22, last week No. 4)
Cade Cunningham has been upgraded to doubtful, a sign that he might return for a game or two this week, getting his legs under him before the start of the playoffs. The same is true for Isaiah Stewart. Don't read anything into Detroit's loss in Orlando on Monday night, the Pistons had already sewn up the No. 1 seed in the East and had nothing to play for. Don't be shocked if there's another ugly loss for Detroit this week, as they take their foot off the gas a little.
In The Hunt
6. New York Knicks
(51-28, last week No. 7)
This may be the biggest concern for the Knicks heading into the playoffs: Mike Brown's preferred starting five — Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns — has a pedestrian +1.1 net rating. That lineup's offense is more than three points per 100 possessions worse than the team average, and the defense is a little bit worse than average, too. New York too often finds itself trying to dig out of a first quarter hole created by the starters, as they did against Houston last week. That loss to the Rockets was their third straight, but the Knicks have bounced back with three straight wins, including a key comeback against the Hawks Monday. Tough week ahead with games against Boston and Charlotte, but New York needs wins to hold off Cleveland and keep the No. 3 seed (unless the Knicks want to fall to fourth and get out of the Celtics side of the bracket).
7. Houston Rockets
(49-29, last week No. 10)
Houston has won six in a row — including an overtime win over the Warriors, spoiling Stephen Curry's return — and now is just one game back of the shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers for the No. 4 seed in the West and hosting their first-round playoff series (likely against that same Lakers team). That said, Los Angeles has the tiebreaker so Houston needs to make up two games, not just one. That will have to come against a fairly tough schedule that includes Phoenix, Philadelphia and Minnesota.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
(50-29, last week No. 8)
Cleveland has won 50 games, is 8-2 in its last 10, sits fourth in the East with a chance to move up to third if New York stumbles, yet it's not striking fear in anyone's hearts. Maybe it's that they had to overcome fourth quarter deficits to the Pacers, Jazz and Curry-less Warriors. Maybe it's that they have James Harden, who has his share of playoff duds. It seems likely that Cleveland and Atlanta will play each other in the 4/5 series in the East — and they play each other twice this week.
Playoff Teams
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
(46-32, last week No. 9)
The Timberwolves are essentially locked in as the No. 6 seed in the West — exactly where they were a season ago when they made a run to the conference finals. What Minnesota needs to reach those heights again starts with getting healthy, which includes Anthony Edwards (who is now ineligible for postseason awards because of time missed), but also Jaden McDaniels.
10. Atlanta Hawks
(45-34, last week No. 11)
Atlanta's hot streak — going 7-3 in its last 10 and winning 18-of-21 — has it as the No. 5 seed in the East, 1.5 games up on Toronto and two games ahead of No. 7 Philadelphia and the play-in. Meaning the Hawks need wins in the season's final week. Atlanta also has two games against No. 4 seed Cleveland, very possibly a first-round preview. That leaves coach Quin Snyder with some interesting choices: If he has a matchup he really wants to exploit, or sees something he thinks can be a huge advantage for Atlanta, does he tip his hand and go at it in these two games to get the regular season win, or does he keep it in his back pocket for the playoffs?
11. Charlotte Hornets
(43-36, last week No. 13)
Kon Knueppel's march to be Rookie of the Year now includes another milestone: Most 3-pointers in a season in Hornets history. And Knueppel will be the ROY winner — don't get sucked in by recency bias (with all due respect to Flagg). Charlotte needs to focus not on getting Knueppel buckets this season, it needs wins to hold on to the No. 8 seed and keep Orlando at bay. It looks like a brutal schedule on paper, but the games later in the week against Detroit and New York will be against teams with nothing to play for.
12. Los Angeles Lakers
(50-28, last week No. 6)
What a brutal week for the Lakers. Luka Doncic is out and is now in Spain getting specialized treatment for his strained hamstring (does Spain have some magical trick for better healing muscle injuries?). Austin Reaves is out with a strained oblique. Both are out for the rest of the regular season — meaning the Lakers sliding to fifth in the West is very possible — and may be out for part or all of the first round of the playoffs. Right now, the role of primary offensive creator falls on 41-year-old LeBron James. The challenge for the Lakers is that their theory of winning is that their offense is spectacular and the defense is good enough, but as seen in the loss to Dallas, the offense isn't quite the same (and the defense has holes). It was a brutal week for the Lakers and the next couple may be the same way.
13. Phoenix Suns
(43-35, last week No. 15)
Things nobody saw coming before the season: Collin Gillespie setting the Suns' franchise record for 3-pointers in a season. This is a franchise with Steve Nash, Devin Booker, and even Dan Majerle back in the day, and Gillespie is the best of them. Phoenix has stumbled down the stretch, going 4-8 in its last dozen, but it needs a couple of wins this week to hold off the Clippers and keep the No. 7 seed. That includes a big game Tuesday night against Houston, part of Coast 2 Coast Tuesday on NBC and Peacock.
14. Toronto Raptors
(43-35, last week No. 14)
The Raptors need wins this week to hold off the 76ers and keep the No. 6 seed in the East, avoiding the play-in (which is why last week's loss to Sacramento was so brutal, Toronto cannot drop more games like that). Toronto hosts Miami for two games and needs both of them, then the Raptors travel to face the Knicks (who may not have anything to play for at that point). The Raptors need Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes to step up this week.
Play-In Teams
15. Portland Trail Blazers
(40-39, last week No. 17)
Portland had pushed up to the top eight in the West — and an easier path out of the play-in to the playoffs proper — by racking up wins against a soft part of the schedule, but they also beat the Clippers last week in a critical win, then took Denver to overtime on Monday. Portland is going to the play-in, but if they are the No. 8 or 9 seed may well come down to Friday night's rematch with the LA Clippers, one of the biggest games of the week.
16. Los Angeles Clippers
(40-38, last week No. 12)
That the Clippers are headed to the play-in after an ugly 6-21 start to the season — and trading away James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the deadline — is a testament to how well Kawhi Leonard is playing and Tyronn Lue's coaching. That said, to hold on to the No. 8 seed, the Clippers need to head to Portland this week and beat the Trail Blazers, who sit ninth (and beat LA last week). That is one of the biggest games of the week. Lose and the Clippers have a much tougher path out of the play-in.
17. Orlando Magic
(43-36, last week No. 19)
Franz Wagner returned to the court last week after missing 22 games, and while that didn’t help much in his first game back — a loss to Atlanta — Orlando has won three straight after that (including over Detroit, although it had clinched the No. 1 seed and had nothing to play for) and now is tied with Charlotte for the No. 8 seed (and a much easier path out of the play-in). Orlando will need another win in a tough game against Minnesota on Wednesday, and they close the season at Boston but the Celtics likely will have nothing to play for in that one.
18. Miami Heat
(41-37, last week No. 18)
What happened to the Heat defense? Before the All-Star break it was fourth in the NBA, after the break it is 5.8 points per 100 possessions worse and 17th in the league. Miami has given up 130+ points in 6 of its last 9 games [BEFORE THURSDAY]. It is going to be tough to even win a game in the play-in if the Heat can’t get stops. Miami sits 10th in the East and if it doesn’t want to have to win a couple of games on the road to make the playoffs it needs wins this week, including two against Toronto. Which is a big ask.
19. Philadelphia 76ers
(43-36, last week No. 16)
Philadelphia has its three stars healthy for the stretch run and the playoffs, but it needs a little more from them to climb out of the play-in and into the top six in the East. The 76ers have a +4 net rating when Joel Embiid, Paul George (looking like an All-Star), and Tyrese Maxey are all on the court together, a good number but not as dominant as one might hope. The 76ers lost to the Spurs and have a tough game against Houston next, but then get tanking Indiana and whatever Milwaukee is in the final two games — and Philly needs wins in maybe all of them to avoid the play-in.
20. Golden State Warriors
(36-42, last week No. 20)
Stephen Curry was back and showed very little rust in his return. Golden State will be the No. 10 seed in the West — losing Jimmy Butler to an ACL tear and Curry missing 25 games in February and March will do that — but with Curry back they are a threat to win two games on the road and reach the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. If nothing else, it will be entertaining to watch.
Tanking Teams
21. New Orleans Pelicans
(25-54, last week No. 21)
The Pelicans have gone 10-13 with a -1.3 net rating since the All-Star break, a radical improvement from the 15-41 with a -5.6 net rating before the break. Mostly, the Pelicans were just healthy, but can it be a building block for next season? Maybe, but a lot of changes are coming to the Big Easy this offseason.
22. Dallas Mavericks
(25-53, last week No. 23)
Cooper Flagg becoming the first teenager in NBA history to put up 50+ points has been framed by many as his late-season push for Rookie of the Year. I see it more as a reminder that he is going to be the best player out of this class long term, regardless of what happens with the postseason awards this year. Dallas has a cornerstone to build around.
23. Chicago Bulls
(29-49, last week No. 22)
Front office decision makers Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley are out, and the list of potential replacements includes former Bull (now Hawks assistant general manager) Kyle Korver and former Bulls front office person (now with Minnesota) Matt Lloyd. The new GM will have about $65 million in cap space this summer and a lottery pick, but will that be enough to get them out of the middle, where the Bulls have been stuck for too long?
24. Milwaukee Bucks
(31-47, last week No. 25)
What a mess in Milwaukee as Giannis Antetokounmpo is pushing to get back on the court to play with his brothers, but the team is saying he refused to take part in a 3-on-3 scrimmage and is not taking the steps needed to play again. For all the times we heard rumors about Antetokounmpo trades in the past that turned out to be nothing, this just feels different. Also, there is little chance Doc Rivers is back with the Bucks next year.
25. Sacramento Kings
(21-58, last week No. 30)
This year things were going to be different. They have not been — for the 19th time in the last 20 years, the Sacramento Kings will miss the playoffs. Take some solace in the fact that the Kings have gone 9-14 since the All-Star break if you want, but they still have a -9.5 net rating in that time. Changes are coming to Sacramento this summer, to the coaching staff, the roster, all of it. Which means next year is going to be different, right?
26. Indiana Pacers
(18-60, last week No. 26)
It feels like we can already start writing those "biggest statistical one-season turnaround in NBA history" stories we will see in a year for the Pacers. This team is poised for a massive leap, and the only question is where they fall after the NBA Draft Lottery and how a win-now team's approach to picking high in the lottery compares to a rebuilding team.
27. Memphis Grizzlies
(25-54, last week No. 24)
LeBron James caught a lot of flak for saying he doesn't like playing in Memphis and the team should move to Nashville, but what he said publicly has been a quietly discussed topic around the NBA for a long time. It may or may not happen, but the idea of an in-state move to a larger city did not come out of nowhere.
28. Brooklyn Nets
(19-59, last week No. 29)
It's a tankapalooza for the Nets, who beat the Wizards over the weekend and their three remaining games are against the Bucks (twice) and Pacers. Their draft lottery odds are not set.
29. Washington Wizards
(17-61, last week No. 27)
The Wizards are on pace to have fewer than 20 wins in a season for the third straight year. That will change next season with Trae Young and Anthony Davis on the roster, but it doesn't make the final week of this season any prettier.
30. Utah Jazz
(21-58, last week No. 28)
Much like Washington and Indiana, there is going to be a rapid turnaround in Utah next season when Jaren Jackson Jr. joins Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George in the starting lineup. This team may well be deep enough next year that Ace Bailey, despite a late-season surge this season showing promise, will be coming off the bench. There is real reason for optimism in Utah.
