Who will win Brewers vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (+100)
Chad Patrick owns a sparkling 2.47 ERA, but his underlying profile is littered with red flags.
He's posted a 5.52 xFIP, 5.56 SIERA, and a +2.6% K-BB% — the lowest mark among today’s projected starters.
He’s also allowing a 50% fly ball rate, which could be trouble against a St. Louis Cardinals offense that sits sixth in ISO and second in HR/FB vs. right-handed pitching over the past five weeks.
Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
The Cardinals rank ninth in runs per game and fourth in homers, with the emergence of young bats like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker really lengthening their lineup.
Patrick’s high fly-ball rate could be a problem, especially on a warm day with the wind blowing out.
The Milwaukee Brewers are also well positioned to produce. Kyle Leahy has conceded multiple runs in all six starts, and 3+ runs in four of six.
He’s giving up damage consistently and has not lasted six innings once. The fourth-ranked Brewers offense should cause him problems.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 11-5, +3.88 units
Over/Under bets: 6-10, -5.06 units
Brewers vs Cardinals odds
Moneyline: Brewers -115 | Cardinals -105
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Brewers vs Cardinals trend
The Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Brewers vs Cardinals and game info
Location
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date
Monday, May 4, 2026
First pitch
7:45 p.m. ET
TV
FS1
Brewers starting pitcher
Chad Patrick (2-1, 2.57 ERA)
Cardinals starting pitcher
Kyle Leahy (3-3, 5.52 ERA)
Brewers vs Cardinals latest injuries
Brewers vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks will open their Eastern Conference Semifinals series Monday night at Madison Square Garden on NBC and Peacock.
The third-seeded Knicks advanced from the first round with a playoff franchise-record 51-point victory over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 6, becoming the only team in the NBA to win a series in each of the past four seasons.
The 76ers, the seventh seed, eliminated the Boston Celtics and became the 14th team in NBA history to win a series after trailing 3-1. Philadelphia is also the first No. 7 seed to beat the No. 2 in the East since the first round was expanded to seven games in 2003.
Teams that win in Game 1 have won 75.3% of playoff series in NBA history. The Knicks are seeking to make the conference finals for the second consecutive season. The 76ers are trying to make the conference finals for the first time since 2001 (when they reached the NBA Finals and lost to the Los Angeles Lakers), the third-longest conference finals drought behind Washington and Charlotte.
See below for additional information on the 76ers-Knicks game and how to watch the 2026 NBA Playoffs on NBC and Peacock.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks game preview:
The 76ers defeated the Celtics largely on the return of Joel Embiid, who returned from an emergency appendectomy on April 9 to play in the final four games of the series. Embiid had 34 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in Game 7. Embiid led the series with 28 points per game and paced the Sixers with 9 rebounds per game and 7 assists per game.
"What changed in this series was Joel Embiid came back, and they were a completely different team,” Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla said.
When Embiid starts Game 1, it'll be his fifth consecutive game, his longest stretch since six in a row from Dec. 30-Jan.9. Since December 2023, he hasn't played in more than six consecutive games.
Tyrese Maxey also has been a major factor for Philadelphia, averaging 26.9 points, 6.6 assists and a 40.9 minutes (most of any remaining player in the playoffs), and 16-year veteran Paul George made 22 of 40 3-pointers against Boston.
The Knicks are aiming for their first four-game winning streak in the playoffs since 1999 (when they won a franchise-record six consecutive in reaching the NBA Finals).
“It really came down to our defense," New York point guard Jalen Brunson said of the Game 6 victory. "It allowed us to play fast. Allowed us to play in transition. And we made shots. Most importantly, it shows us what we’re capable of defensively. I think that’s really important.”
The Knicks also outscored the Hawks by 105 points in the First Round, the third-largest margin in a playoff series in NBA history behind Cleveland over Miami in the first round last year and Denver over New Orleans in the 2009 first round.
Karl-Anthony Towns had his second triple-double of the series in Game 6, becoming the first Knick with multiple triple-doubles in the same playoff series. OG Anunoby was also a presence for New York, averaging a personal-best 21.5 ppg in a playoff series while making 17 of 30 3-pointers and grabbing 8.7 rpg.
NBC Sports will present up to 23 games in the First Round and 11 games in the Conference Semifinals across either NBC and Peacock, or Peacock and NBCSN. Playoff programming concludes with exclusive coverage of the Western Conference Finals on NBC and Peacock.
Which playoff rounds will be available on Peacock?
Peacock’s NBA Playoffs coverage spans multiple rounds, including Round 1, the Conference Semifinals, and the Western Conference Finals, with coverage evolving as the postseason progresses.
Will Peacock show both Eastern and Western Conference playoff games?
Yes. During earlier rounds such as Round 1 and the Conference Semifinals, Peacock will carry a mix of Eastern and Western Conference playoff games.
How to sign up for Peacock:
Sign up here to watch all of our LIVE sports, sports shows, documentaries, classic matches, and more. You'll also get tons of hit movies and TV shows, Originals, news, 24/7 channels, and current NBC & Bravo hits—Peacock is here for whatever you’re in the mood for.
Coming off a series win in Anaheim over the weekend, the Mets (12-22) still own the worst record in baseball. Weather permitting, they’ll have an opportunity to overtake the Rockies (14-21) in a three-game series against them that’s scheduled to begin this afternoon in Denver.
The forecast for the next three days is the biggest story at the moment. There’s a chance of rain in Denver this evening, which is why the start time of the game was moved up to 5:40 PM EDT. Things are likely to get much dicier after the series opener, though, as there’s a high probability of rain for most of the day on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, there’s almost certainly going to be continued precipitation, and it might be cold enough for that to be snow.
If the second game of the series gets postponed, it might be possible for the teams to squeeze in a frigid doubleheader if the field at Coors Field is playable by a reasonable time on Wednesday. If not, both teams have an off day on their schedule on Thursday, and neither would have onerous travel ahead of them heading into the weekend. The Rockies are set to head to Philadelphia for a three-game series this weekend, and the Mets are scheduled to finish their road trip with three games in Arizona.
As for the Mets’ attempt to turn around their miserable season, well, at least they beat one of the other worst teams in baseball over the weekend. They’ll need to do the same against the Rockies in this one, but given the struggles of nearly every hitter in their lineup and the Rockies’ recent three-game sweep of the Mets in Queens, you really can’t take anything for granted here.
Thanks to his pair of two-run home runs in the series finale yesterday, Mark Vientos joined Juan Soto and MJ Melendez as the only Mets hitters with an wRC+ over 100. Melendez leads the way with a 177 wRC+ in 39 plate appearances, but he’s sporting a .474 BABIP and a 33.3 percent strikeout rate. Soto has a 158 wRC+ on the season and is on a six-game hitting streak. And Vientos is at a 107 wRC+ thanks to his big day at the plate, having entered the game with just an 84 wRC+. Francisco Alvarez is the only other Mets hitter who’s healthy and hovering around league average with a 98 wRC+.
With the Giants having plummeted to last spot in Major League Baseball in runs per game, the Mets rank 29th with 3.47 runs scored per game. Even in winning their series against the Angels over the weekend, they only have averaged 4.00 runs per game. League average so far this season is 4.50 runs per game, which means there’s still a lot of work to do. The fact that Vidal Bruján’s career numbers at the plate (.543 OPS, 54 wRC+) wouldn’t look too out of place in the Mets’ lineup if he were to be included in it is still pretty damning.
The Mets haven’t been spectacular in terms of run prevention, either, but they’ve been much better at it than they’ve been at scoring. At 4.38 runs allowed per game, the team has the 14th-lowest mark in baseball, one that obviously makes them slightly better than the aforementioned league average.
The Rockies, meanwhile, have allowed 4.91 runs per game, the seventh-highest rate in the sport. Their home ballpark always plays a role in that, of course, but the their struggling pitchers didn’t have much of a problem shutting down the Mets’ lineup in their recent series in Queens. The Mets managed just four runs total across that three-game series as Colorado swept them.
Rockies hitters have scored 4.29 runs per game, which isn’t all that impressive but is still quite a bit better than their counterparts in the Mets’ lineup. Among those with at least 50 plate appearances, Mickey Moniak is by far their best hitter this season, as he’s hit .327/.374/.724 with 11 home runs and a 185 wRC+.
Four other Rockies are hitting above league average by wRC+: Troy Johnston (124), Hunter Goodman (114), Edouard Julien (110), and Tyler Freeman (103). And two hitters are just below league average: Jake McCarthy (97) and TJ Rumfield (97).
The team isn’t without its own struggling hitters, as Willi Castro (68 wRC+), Brenton Doyle (49 wRC+), and Ezequiel Tovar (36 wRC+) have been pretty easy outs.
If these teams don’t play all three of these games this week and neither one gets into the playoff mix, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a game or two canceled entirely and not made up later in the season. Being that it’s early in the year, it seems more likely that one game today and a doubleheader on Thursday would be the worst case scenario in terms of scheduling, but if the Mets end up playing 160 or 161 games this season, this would be why.
Monday, May 4: Opener + David Peterson vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, 5:40 PM EDT on SNY
The Mets haven’t specified who their opener will be in the series opener, but Peterson’s traditional start against the Nationals his last time out couldn’t have gone much worse. He gave up seven runs, all earned, in just three-and-two-thirds innings. Having found better success in the two outings that preceded that, both of which came out of the bullpen after an opener, the Mets will be hoping for similar results in this game.
Coming off a so-so debut season in Major League Baseball last year with the Orioles that saw him finish the season with 157.0 innings pitched and a 4.64 ERA, Sugano signed a one-year deal with the Rockies over the offseason. The underlying metrics suggest that his impressive ERA is not sustainable, but the Mets have had a hard enough time this year when facing struggling pitchers. Maybe they’ll surprise us and beat a pitcher who’s off to good start.
Tuesday, May 5: Freddy Peralta vs. Michael Lorenzen, 8:40 PM EDT on SNY
Freddy Peralta has continued being himself, and his ERA was helped by his own error in his most recent outing, one that resulted in two of the three runs he allowed being unearned and helping to turn the game into a loss for the Mets. Peralta has completed six innings twice in his seven starts with the Mets and is averaging a bit more than five-and-one-third innings per outing. That’s on brand, as are his current ERA and FIP.
Lorenzen gave up just one run on seven hits in seven strong innings against the Mets on April 24. Since then, he’s made one start that saw the Reds get him for four runs in five-and-a-third innings. But he’s been particularly bad at home, which isn’t uncommon for pitchers in Colorado. Lorenzen has an 8.56 ERA at Coors Field this year in just 13.2 innings of work. Here’s hoping the Mets can take advantage of that.
Wednesday, May 6: Christian Scott vs. Jose Quintana, 3:10 PM EDT on SNY
After a disastrous return to the major league mound that saw him totally lose the strike zone, Scott returned when Kodai Senga went on the injured list and had a solid second start. He went five innings, gave up three runs, two of them earned, on three hits, struck out eight, and impressively didn’t walk anyone.
The former Met pitched well when the Rockies were in Queens recently, as he gave up just one run in five-and-one-third innings with five strikeouts, two walks, and just two hits allowed. And it might surprise you to read that he has a 3.98 ERA since the Mets chose not to pursue him in free agency following the 2024 season. He’s done that despite a 5.05 FIP over that span, but the difference in those metrics is more pronounced this year than it was last year with the Brewers.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - APRIL 20: Matt McLain #9 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after hitting a double in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on April 20, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cincinnati Reds clearly began to put an emphasis on defense at some point over the last year. It was the driving reason behind their acquisition of 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh at last season’s trade deadline, a move that locked them into a glove-first (if not glove-only) player for a handful of guaranteed years into the future.
Of the 116 MLB players who have logged at least 650 PA since the start of the 2025 season, none have a lower total wRC+ than Hayes’ 55. However, his DEF – per FanGraphs – has been the 6th best in the time, and clearly the team feels that what he provides at the hot corner with the glove is enough to offset his bat (for the time being).
Chalking up a position like 3B to being glove-only is rare in this day and age, as that has typically been reserved for players who also carry a pretty potent bat. It helps that Cincinnati sports Elly De La Cruz right next to him at short, since the combined output of those two positions wouldn’t totally make you blink if, say, you were getting Elly’s production out of 3B and Hayes’ out of SS.
Things get complicated when you begin to realize that the Reds don’t just have one infield position being chalked up to being glove-only, but they’ve had two – and had it that way for quite awhile now.
If we circle back to that list of 116 MLB players who have logged at least 650 PA since the start of 2025 – the one where Hayes ranks at the bottom on the wRC+ leaderboard – you’ll find Matt McLain ranking as the second worst by that metric. He owns a 76 wRC+ over that time (in a larger 720 PA sample), and while that’s still light years better than the 55 of Hayes, it’s an unavoidable fact that the Reds are now rolling out just about every single day the two lightest-hitting regulars in all of baseball together.
There are parallels between the two beyond that. Back in 2023, Hayes had seemingly cemented himself as a 3+ WAR per season regular after hitting .271/.309/.453 with 15 homers for the Pirates, good for a 101 wRC+ that more than complemented his elite defense. McLain, meanwhile, broke into the big leagues that year in a huge way with a .290/.357/.507 line in 403 PA that had FanGraphs value him at an identical 3.2 fWAR to that of Hayes that season.
Both, though, have hit significant hiccups since. Hayes has dealt with a back issue off and on that’s cost him time, and McLain famously lost his entire 2024 campaign after oblique and shoulder problems. So, ever since those duel 2023 breakouts, the two have looked like complete shells of themselves.
FanGraphs has at least loved McLain’s defense enough this season to value him at just 0.0 fWAR despite a 71 wRC+, one that has featured one game in which he hit 2 homers and 33 others in which he’s hit zero. He’s mired in a 3 for 31 slump since that game towards the end of April, and his collective work has Baseball Reference valuing his 2026 season a -0.5 bWAR so far.
McLain will turn 27 this summer, so it’s not as if he’s still got a ton of ‘maturing’ left to do. The question, as it was last year, is just how long it will take him to find his 2023 form again after major shoulder surgery, and the timetable to find out whether that’s a reality is beginning to extend a lot further than I think a lot of us imagined it would. In the meantime, we’re also now getting a glimpse at what prospect Edwin Arroyo can do two years removed from his own similar shoulder surgery, and the former consensus Top 100 overall middle infielder is off to a roaring .305/.386/.489 start in 160 PA with AAA Louisville in his age-22 season.
It’s not yet time to pull the plug on McLain completely. His glovework provides legit big league value at both 2B and SS, and those don’t grow on trees. But as he inches closer to both being 27 years old and to his first trip through the arbitration process, the clock is certainly ticking on just how much longer the Reds can wait to find out if he can truly be a co-star on this team as they try like heck to establish a recurring winner.
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 28: Payton Pritchard #11 and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics look on during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers during Round One Game Five of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 28, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Just wanted to highlight this post, which was well thought out and presented in an organized fashion.
In particular I liked the section on living and dying by the 3. I think most would agree that the 3 pointers have served us very well over the years and this isn’t a “they are shooting too many 3’s” critique. Rather, it is pointing out that we need to address the need of having another option to go to when they aren’t falling. Porzingis was the example given, but it doesn’t just have to be a big man. It might be a great downhill attacker or perhaps just a guard that is more skilled at feeding the rolling bigs.
That’s just one topic covered in this post, so check out the rest and jump into the discussion.
FREDERICKSBURG, VIRGINIA - SEPTEMBER 7, 2025: Eli Willits #13 of the Fredericksburg Nationals in action during a Carolina League game against the Carolina Mudcats at Virginia Credit Union Stadium on September 7, 2025 in Fredericksburg, Virginia. The Mudcats beat the Nationals, 6-3. (Photo by Rodger Wood/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
“I think we have the best talent in all of Minor League baseball”. That is what Nationals 11th round pick Jack Moroknek said about the Low-A Fredericksburg Nationals team he plays on. That is not much of an exaggeration either, with MLB.comranking them as the 5th most stacked roster in the minors. I got to see this group live and in the flesh yesterday, and they did not let me down.
Fredericksburg is your classic minor league town. As I entered the town with my dad, we passed a duck crossing sign and a plethora of fast casual food options. Before the game began, we were serenaded by the Garrison Elementary choir, who delivered a cute, but excellent rendition of the National Anthem. I got to see minor league baseball at its finest.
As much as I was charmed by the pageantry, I was here to see a ball game. While prized prospects Gavin Fien and Coy James were not playing, due to injury and an off day, I still got to see plenty of talent. The Fred Nats top three hitters were first overall pick Eli Willits, top 10 prospect in the system Luke Dickerson, and MacKenzie Gore trade piece Yeremy Cabrera. Those three players combined to get on base 8 times in this game.
Eli Willits was the main attraction though, and seeing him live and in the flesh was quite the experience. He is such a well rounded player, with hitting skills, outstanding defense and insanely aggressive base running. Willits got a base hit on the first pitch he saw yesterday afternoon, and finished the game with two hits, a walk and two stolen bases.
Jack Moroknek raved about Willits when I asked about him. He said that Willits is “35 in an 18 year old’s body. He is the most mature 18 year old I have ever met”. You can see that maturity on the field, with Willits playing shortstop at a big league level already on the defensive end.
Willits is just such a smooth player, and you could tell who the former first overall pick was pretty easily. Once he gets to the big leagues, fans are going to have so much fun watching Willits in the field and on the bases. He already has 21 stolen bases on the season, and is an absolute mad man when he reaches first base. Eventually, he may need to be tamed a little bit on the bases, but for now, his all out aggression is super exciting.
The fun thing about A ball is that you have elite prospects like Willits, but you also have lesser known guys chasing their dreams like Moroknek and Juan Cruz. Moroknek told me that, “I never thought baseball was going to be my job, so every day is a dream for me”.
While Moroknek acknowledged the velocity is different in pro ball compared to what he saw in college at Butler, he has adapted well. He has a .344 average and an OPS over 1.000. The 22 year old also had a 16 game hitting streak that was recently snapped, though he did say plenty of those hits came on “broken bat flub shots”.
Like Moroknek, Juan Cruz was also a small school guy, going to Alabama State University. He had an offer in the transfer portal to go play at Georgia, but when the Nats drafted him in the 20th round, he could not pass up the opportunity. Cruz told me he decided to sign because “it is every kid’s dream to play professional baseball”.
Cruz and Moroknek are two underdogs just following their dreams, while Eli Willits is the son of a big leaguer who is a former first overall pick. The great thing about minor league baseball is that these guys become brothers as they play six days a week, and ride the bus to small towns across Virginia and North Carolina.
Minor league baseball is so much fun, and it is not just because of the big name prospects. Players like Cruz and Moroknek who are the lifeblood of the system. It will be an uphill climb for these guys to make the big leagues, but the great thing about baseball is that it is possible. Baseball is a true meritocracy, and if these guys put up numbers as they climb through the system, they will make the big leagues eventually.
Back to the prospect side of things though, another player who really stood out yesterday was Yeremy Cabrera. At one point, Cabrera was an underdog just like Cruz and Moroknek. He signed for only $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic. Cabrera managed to turn himself into a real prospect in the Rangers system. This winter, he was traded to the Nationals as part of the MacKenzie Gore deal.
Last year, Cabrera played for the same Hickory Crawdads team he was facing yesterday. He put up solid numbers, but the Nats wanted him to repeat the level. Based on what he has done this season, a promotion should be on the way. Cabrera went 3-5 with a homer and a double yesterday. He is now hitting .297 with a 1.022 OPS at just 20 years old.
If you want to see this Fred Nats team, which is 19-8 to start the season, you should come down soon. Before too long, players like Willits, Cabrera and maybe even Moroknek will be promoted to High-A Wilmington with how they are performing. Minor League games are always fun, but they are even better when you get to see high end prospects like the Fred Nats have.
Even with a couple absences, this Fred Nats lineup was absolutely stacked. They set the tone in the first inning, with four runs against Hickory. It was a nice and easy win for the Fred Nats, who cruised to a 9-1 victory.
I did not get to see Miguel Sime Jr., or Landon Harmon, the Fred Nats top two arms, but the pitching was solid. Grant Manning, a minor league free agent signing, impressed me, striking out four in three scoreless innings.
As I was talking to Jack Moroknek in a little tunnel down the left field line, I could not help but compare the Fred Nats locker room I was looking at to the Nats locker room. Obviously, things are much more glamorous in the big leagues. However, these guys are not here for glamor, they are here to grind and play ball. As Jack Moroknek told me, “The grind is fun. With the group of guys we have, it does not make it seem like a grind for me”.
Awaiting the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, following New York's dominant defeat of the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, are the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid-led Sixers are coming off a 3-1 comeback to top the Boston Celtics, and are ready to keep that momentum going against New York.
Here's what to expect from what could be a drawn-out, physical series, and who will come out on top...
The biggest question for both teams is how they’re going to make life easier for their elite scoring guards without exposing them too much defensively. New York’s offense has largely figured this out forJalen Brunson, who started slow against Atlanta but should have more opportunities against Philadelphia.
The Sixers offer him a couple of targets in Maxey and Embiid, the latter obviously being a strong defensive player but less comfortable switching out on the perimeter. They do have an assortment of defensive wings who are likely to occupy his time, though, in Paul George, V.J. Edgecombe, and Kelly Oubre Jr.
That may leave them more inclined to play Brunson straight-up, switch fewer screens, and help off non-shooters less aggressively. The Knicks have a real wrinkle to throw at them now with Brunson involved in more off-ball and screening options, so expect a chess match from the jump.
Philly likely moves to all-but-ignore Josh Hart on offense early on, maybe starting Maxey on him, forcing him to hit some threes to punish them. Hart and the Knicks will have to be ready to make them pay.
There’s few other hiding spots for the Sixers star. If he’s on Mikal Bridges, the Knicks should feed him every trip down and get solid offense out of it. These matchups very often just come down to Brunson and Maxey calling for screens to face each other, and this series may serve as a larger version of that.
The Knicks have another edge over their previous meeting, which is Karl-Anthony Towns. The Sixers likely don’t want Embiid stretched out of the paint or having to watch his foul trouble guarding Towns one-on-one, so expect George to start out on him.
Towns will have to display much of the patience and passing ability he did against Atlanta, since these Sixers wings are built a bit better to deal with Towns and will be hunting those passing lanes. The Knicks will need another big series out of him if the Sixers overload on Brunson.
There’s two big advantages for the Knicks on paper: their rebounding and depth. New York is rebounding a third of its own misses in the playoffs after finishing top-five in rebound rate during the regular season.
Apr 9, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (23) secures a rebound during the fourth quarter against the Boston Celtics at Madison Square Garden. / Lucas Boland - Imagn Images
Philadelphia has been solid on the defensive glass in the postseason, but doesn’t boast the same offensive rebound playoff stats or regular season numbers. The Knicks' bigs should do their job against a weak Sixers frontcourt, but it’s the battle of the guards and wings that will decide this contest. Bridges, Hart, and OG Anunobywill need more big performances.
As for depth, the 76ers played only seven guys in their Game 7 win, with Andre Drummond and Quentin Grimes coming off the bench. Their next options are Justin Edwards and Trendon Watford.
Meanwhile New York just got great bench lifts in the first round from Jose Alvarado, Jordan Clarkson, Miles McBride, and Mitchell Robinson, and may tap back into Landry Shamet for shooting. If they can maintain this edge it would be massive on the series, owning the first few minutes of every second and fourth quarter.
With the Sixers offense, Maxey is the biggest puzzle piece, and the Knicks don’t have a simple answer. None of their one-on-one matchups are very clean outside of McBride, and Maxey pressures every screen coverage to its limits.
Drop and Maxey gets a full head of steam or clean pull-up, switch and live with bad matchups that likely involve Embiid putting someone in the cup, and he can blow right past or split a hedge if it’s not perfect. The Knicks will need a mix of their lead defenders and some aggressive coverages to slow him down.
Bridges or Hart likely gets the start so Brunson can hide on Oubre. There are also small things they can do try and slow Maxey down: get the refs hung up on Embiid screens, throw occasional unders in to force long pull-ups, and target him without mercy on the opposite end.
Towns will need to defend without fouling and most importantly, brush off the flop calls Embiid is bound to draw. A bad call or two may turn a game, but Towns getting in his head over bad officiating can turn the series.
If he does it right, the Knicks won’t need to be over-aggressive on help. Also expect to see some Anunoby on Embiid after past successes, especially with Towns showing he can be useful guarding and helping off a wing.
The 76ers are going to try to attack Brunson as part of their game plan, and he’ll need to be more prepared than when he gave up multiple big nights to CJ McCollum. Expect the fearless rookie Edgecombe to go at him with gusto early on.
Philadelphia has proven itself talented and viable, but they’re going up against a very tough New York team that isn’t trying to recover from a seven-game dogfight. Combine that with the bench and rebounding advantages, and it’s tough to see the Knicks not coming out of this one victorious.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 09: General Manager Mike Elias of the Baltimore Orioles watches the Orioles Hall of Fame ceremony before the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Athletics at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 09, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This time a week ago, it felt like the Orioles were treading water and that as long as they could continue doing that, they might avoid a disastrous outcome to the season. It’s harder now to feel like the Orioles are staying afloat after what we’ve watched over the first three games of this series against the Yankees. Problems that feel like they don’t have immediate solutions have been exposed and the team is going to have to contend with those or it will once again sink.
In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’m thinking about a number of the assumptions that Mike Elias made in assembling the roster this way and how they have or mostly haven’t worked out so far this season. Some things aren’t fair to blame on Elias, like Zach Eflin needing Tommy John surgery after one start. That’s just plain bad luck. Other things are the direct result of decisions that he has made where there were alternatives available to him.
There are seven big areas that are looking like bad bets right now, starting with “A top of the rotation of Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz will be competitive” and going down through, “The defense will be fine enough when considering the offense that comes with it.” The team is not yet in the same kind of free fall that they went into a year ago, but if you’re feeling like they’re right at the start of one, that’s probably because it’s hard to picture short-term solutions to some of these problems. It’s rough.
If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.
This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.
How are you feeling about the way things are going so far? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.
Gene Hackman is mauled by bear in a scene from the film 'Zandy's Bride', 1974. (Photo by Warner Brothers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Recaps
[AZ Central] Starting pitching tanks again, Diamondbacks swept by the Chicago Cubs – Right-hander Merrill Kelly was hit hard for the third consecutive start, allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings, and the Diamondbacks lost, 8-4, to the Chicago Cubs, who completed a three-game sweep on Sunday, May 3, at Wrigley Field. The loss wrapped up a miserable 2-6 road trip for the Diamondbacks, who split two games against the San Diego Padres in Mexico City before dropping two of three in Milwaukee before arriving here. Kelly’s performance was the latest poor outing for a Diamondbacks starting pitcher. Over the past 12 games, the unit has posted a 10.10 ERA while logging just a shade over four innings per start.
[dbacks.com] Road-weary D-backs head home determined to get back on track – The Diamondbacks opened the trip three games above .500, a good start for a team that battled injuries and a tough schedule. They split two games against the Padres, dropped two of three to the Brewers and were swept by the Cubs. They return home a game under .500, searching for answers. “Bad,” shortstop Geraldo Perdomo said. “Really bad. Win two out of eight? That’s not us. It was really bad. It was a disaster.” Spotting the problems is easier than finding solutions. For now, all they can do is vow to keep pushing forward.
[SI] Merrill Kelly’s Start vs Cubs Wasn’t As Bad As it Looked – Overall, Kelly picked up 15 whiffs and 12 called strikes. He struck out five batters, and was landing his pitches for strikes around the edges of the zone. He threw 58 of his 92 pitches for strikes — a 63% strike rate that was by far his best in a start this season. The main concern was how quickly that command evaporated, though if he had not been bitten for so many tough-luck hits, he may have had enough stamina to push his decline back an inning or two. Certainly, Kelly’s ineffectiveness this season has been a concern, and his numbers look no better. But if a few more balls went his way Sunday, the outlook might have been different.
[AP] Merrill Kelly’s struggles continue as Diamondbacks fall to Cubs in series sweep – Gabriel Moreno and Adrian Del Castillo each hit two-run homers for Arizona. Merrill Kelly (1-3) allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks had a chance to get back in the game in the seventh, loading the bases with two down. But Ketel Marte struck out swinging against Phil Maton, ending the inning. The Diamondbacks are off Monday before LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.03 ERA) starts Tuesday night at Chase Field against Pittsburgh in the opener of a six-game homestand.
Team news
[Defector] It’s Ildemaro Vargas Time In Major League Baseball – A career like Vargas’s can’t really be read by scanning his career OPS+ figures and making various distressed faces. Baseball is a job and a baseball team is a workplace, and Vargas’s role within that bigger whole was not necessarily—was, even, necessarily not—about putting up numbers. It was important that his glove worked fine at first, second, and third base was good, and that he always made contact even if that contact did not always amount to much. But Vargas emerged as a smiling, goofy human-sized point of consensus in the ongoing attempt to figure out the value of being what former teammate Joey Gallo described as “an A-plus dude”.
[Sporting News] Diamondbacks’ 34-year-old journeyman with .388 average has been biggest surprise in MLB – After being a bottom-of-the-roster option at-best this offseason, Vargas has become someone the Diamondbacks couldn’t afford to go without this season. He had a 27-game hitting streak to begin the season, and did so on just a $1.25 million salary. Vargas isn’t making much, but he’s been one of the best players in the sport. His .388 batting average has been the best in Major League Baseball, and it’s not just that he’s making contact for singles and cheap hits; he’s actually posting a .673 slugging percentage, the best in the NL.
[AZ Central] 2001 Diamondbacks celebration. ‘Rookie’ team leaders came at right time – For a baseball team that thrived because of a veteran roster that ranked as the oldest in Major League Baseball that season, it’s sometimes easy to forget the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks also relied an awful lot on a pair of relative “newbies” in a couple of rather important positions. One was their first-time general manager, Joe Garagiola Jr. The other was their rookie manager, Bob Brenly. And a case can be made that the Diamondbacks probably wouldn’t have won the World Series 25 years ago without them.
[KTAR] Valley groups, Diamondbacks team up to support brain cancer research in May – Several Valley organizations are teaming up to raise money for a Phoenix-based brain cancer research center during Brain Tumor Awareness Month. Sports fans can also get in on the action on May 18, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host Brain Tumor Awareness Night at Chase Field. The team takes on the San Francisco Giants, and the Ivy Center will be recognized on the field, including throwing out the ceremonial first pitch. [It’s of particular relevance to the team, because Mike Hazen’s wife Nicole, died of glioblastoma in 2022]
[Outkick] This year’s American League might be the worst in Major League Baseball history – 13 out of 15 teams in the American League would be either in last place or tied for last place in the NL Central. The combined record in the National League is 258-238, or a collective winning percentage of .520. The average NL team is on pace to win roughly 84 games. By contrast, the average AL team is on pace to win 77 games. That’s remarkable. In fact, it’s not just remarkable, it’s historic. Since the introduction of interleague play, the current .480 winning percentage in the American League would be the worst in the modern era.
[USA Today] Handing out MLB’s early awards: Best and worst of wacky opening month – Who could have envisioned that Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora and Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson would be unemployed before May? Who could have imagined, in their wildest dreams, that that the Colorado Rockies would have a better record than the Mets, Phillies and San Francisco Giants? How in the world of economics can four of the six highest-payroll teams have losing records: the Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays and Red Sox? It’s been a strange but certainly entertaining start to the season, so why not hand out awards to some of the best, worst and funkiest events of April.
The actual shark attacks aren’t at all badly staged, with some enthusiasm and in quite a convincing manner. The main problem is, there is never any doubt about exactly who is going to be eaten. Per Joe Bob Briggs, one of the marks of good horror is that anyone can die, at any time. That is so far from what we get here. It’s one hundred percent predictable, and if you are not on the sharks’ hit list, the resulting plot armour is +5 plate mail quality. As a viewer, this realization renders the whole experience less interesting, because there’s no sense of peril. You’re less interested in the central characters, than waiting for the next person who might get eaten to show up.
May 3, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Cam Smith (11) hits a two run RBI against the Boston Red Sox during the tenth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images
One of the clubs normally featured in here, the Baltimore Orioles, found themselves on the receiving end of a late-inning beatdown Sunday as the Yankees turned a close game into a rout in the eighth inning. But all the Yanks’ other rivals were in action with Sundays featuring full slates of games.
Sunday’s biggest takeaway in terms of the standings is that the Highly Irritating Rays won again to stay at New York’s heels. But the Red Sox and Jays lost, and you love to see that. Unfortunately, Sunday’s biggest stories could be injury related as both the Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins had their starting pitchers leave their respective games early.
Toronto Blue Jays (16-18) 3, Minnesota Twins (15-20) 4
This game quickly turned into a nightmare for Minnesota. And when I say quickly, it took nine pitches. After hurling that ninth pitch, Twins ace Joe Ryan immediately left the game with elbow soreness. It’s obviously too soon to know the severity of the injury but any time a pitcher leaves a game after showing diminished velocity (his final pitch was a fastball at 90.9 mph; his season average is 92.6 mph), you fear the worst.
To Minnesota’s credit, they did not flinch. Five relievers combined to cover this de facto bullpen game, with Andrew Morris taking over for Ryan, throwing 3.2 innings of scoreless ball, and earning his first career win. Offensively, the Twins notched a lone run in the first then three run-scoring doubles in the fifth extended the lead to 4-0.
The Jays meanwhile got four innings out of phenom Trey Yesavage in his second start of the season after returning from injury. Offensively, they mounted a late charge, getting on the board with a run in the sixth. Then, in the ninth, Kazuma Okamoto clubbed a two-run home run to get Toronto within one, before Minnesota finally slammed the door shut.
Boston Red Sox (13-21) 1, Houston Astros (14-21) 3 (F/10)
It was the Moveable Object versus the Stoppable Force this weekend at Fenway. Boston and Houston split the first two games this weekend, meaning whoever won Sunday’s game would take the series. Luckily for Boston, they had Ranger Suárez pitching, fresh off eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Toronto. He looked to be on form again today but, like Ryan in Minnesota, was felled by injury. Suárez left after four innings with a hamstring injury.
Boston then dipped into its bullpen and their parade of relievers did yeoman’s work, allowing a sole run. Meanwhile, the Astros pitching staff, which has been catastrophically bad, managed to match the Sox, allowing one run and sending this game to extras.
In the top of the tenth, Cam Smith came to the plate with the bases loaded and two out. Smith ripped a ball off the Green Monster to plate a pair, leaving Houston three outs away from taking the series at Fenway. Things got dicey in the bottom of the tenth with Boston loading the bases with only one out. But Bryan Abreu managed to induce a game-ending twin-killing to, for what feels like the first time all season, hold on to a Houston lead.
Tampa Bay Rays (21-12) 2, San Francisco Giants (13-21) 1 (F/10): The Rays continue to be Annoying. But it’s also the Giants’ fault for deciding not to score any runs after putting a one in the run column in the first. From there, the game remained 1-0 until the home eighth when Tampa tied it with a squeeze play. Of course. In the bottom of the tenth with super-speedster Chandler Simpson on second, Jonathan Aranda dunked a single into right field. Game over. Annoying.
Cleveland Guardians (18-17) 1, Athletics (18-16) 7: The first place Athletics. What a wild sport baseball is. Sunday, the Athletics’ offense was too much for Cleveland. The A’s put up three-spots in each of the fifth and sixth innings to provide the winning margin. The two clubs combined for four long balls on the day. And don’t look now but Jeff McNeil has rediscovered his form at the plate. The 2022 NL batting champion had three RBI on the day and is now hitting .314 on the season.
Seattle Mariners (16-19) 1, Kansas City Royals (15-19) 4: Luis Castillo has been catastrophically terrible in 2026. Entering Sunday, he “boasted” a 6.35 ERA and was allowing 12.1 H/9. In that context, the four runs he allowed over six innings Sunday is a downright masterpiece. And in all seriousness, he pitched better than his line suggests. He just couldn’t escape the meltdown inning. In the third, a bases loaded walk, a force out, and a sacrifice fly allowed three Royals to score and that was enough for the win.
Detroit Tigers (18-17) 7, Texas Rangers (16-18) 1: The final game of the weekend saw Jack Leiter, son of former Yankee Al Leiter, take the ball for Texas while Detroit went with a bullpen game. Leiter was up and down, going 6.2 innings and whiffing 10, but also allowing five runs. Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen stifled the Rangers offense outside of a lone run. Former #1 pick Spencer Torkelson supplied the power for Detroit, with a two-run bomb. Detroit’s rookie phenom Kevin McGonigle continued his outstanding debut season with a multi-hit game and a pair of RBI.
Feb 20, 2026; North Port FL, USA; Atlanta Braves infielder John Gil (93) poses for a photo during media day at CoolToday Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
(20-13) Gwinnett Stripers 9, (16-17) Charlotte Knights 10
A late collapse by the bullpen cost the Stripers a win, as the Knights scored seven of the last three innings of the game, including five in the eighth inning alone, to pick up the win. Lucas Braun got the start for the Stripers and was okay, navigating through four innings and allowing three earned runs. He was not his normal self as his command wavered shown by his four walks, and the fact that he threw just 44 strikes on 84 pitches. Braun was given a two run lead after the Stripers opened the game – scoring a pair of runs in the first inning following a Brett Wisely two run single.
The lead would be erased in the bottom of the second inning when Braun allowed two doubles, a single, and a pair of walks to the Knights up 3-0. The Stripers would then tie the game again in the fourth inning after back-to-back doubles by Aaron Schunk and Brett Wisely. The Stripers would respond once again in the sixth inning after….who else but Brett Wisely started the inning with a 103.4 MPH triple to center. Tristin English would hit a sac fly to push the lead to Gwinnett at 4-3. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. would then follow up that with his second homer of the season, and his first of the game, a 401’ blast.
After exchanging runs scored in the seventh inning, the Stripers entered the eighth inning up 6-4 when DaShawn Keirsey hit his second homer of the game, quickly followed by a solo homer by Chadwick Tromp to push the lead to 8-4.
With a four run lead the Stripers would turn to Blayne Enlow who was unfortunately horrendous (0.0IP 4H 5ER 1BB 2K, 2 HR) – entering the game and going BB, 1B, 2B, HR, HR, all on 17 pitches – swinging the game back to the Knights at 9-8. Rowdy Tellez would then tie the game once again, in the ninth inning, after hitting his seventh homer of the season – a 408’ homer with an exit velocity of 110.7 MPH.
Working his second inning of relief, James Karinchak struggled in the ninth – ultimately blowing the save on a bases loaded single, giving the Knights a walk off win.
A complete disaster of a pitching performance by the Columbus Clingstones staff who gave up a combined eight walks, 19 hits, 18 runs, and 12 extra-base hits, including EIGHT homers. Jacob Wallace (2IP 1H 0R 0BB 4K) was the only pitcher to have a scoreless outing. Ian Mejia kind of set the tone for the game – having a very un-Ian Mejia like start as he struggled mightily with his command giving up four walks in the single inning he pitched. He needed a robust 48 pitches to get through the first which necessitated the move to the bullpen for the rest of the game.
It’s unfortunate because the Clingstones offense was really strong – picking up five walks, 13 hits, and scoring 10 runs themselves. The Clingstones found themselves down 11-1 in the bottom of the fourth inning when Drew Compton hit this two run homer.
— Columbus Clingstones (@GoClingstones) May 3, 2026
Finding themselves now down 13-3, Lizandro Espinoza who is on an absolute heater, hit a two run homer of his own to lessen the deficit to…..13-5 in the sixth inning. After going up two runs in the top of the seventh, Ethan Workinger, and Cal Conley would hit back-to-back homers to reduce the new deficit to 15-7. Finally, moving onto the bottom of the eighth inning when the Clingstones then found themselves 18-7, Archer Brookman hit a two run homer, and Patrick Clohisy would hit a run scoring double to make it 18-10.
Of note, rehabbing Ha-Seong Kim went 1-for-4 with a walk, and run scored and is hitting .333/.538/.333 in four games so far.
(17-10) Bowling Green Hot Rods 5, (14-13) Rome Emperors 6
John Gil, SS: 2-for-5, HR, RBI, R, .290/.386/.473
Eric Hartman, CF: 2-for-3, 2B, 2 BB, R, .310/.389/.630
Cam Caminiti righted a bit of the ship, putting together a solid start in the lone win for the Braves minor league. Cam picked up 10 whiffs, utilizing his four seam, sweeper, changeup combination. He did get stronger as the outing went on, getting his first 1-2-3 inning in the fourth inning while picking up his final whiff on the last batter he faced. After a rough last couple of starts for Cam, surrendering 10 earned runs over 9.1 innings of work, Cam was able to locate his fastball a bit better and was a lot more in control.
He left the game with the score tied 0-0 and was relieved by David Rodriguez who was rudely greeted by a solo homer on his second pitch. That lead would last until the eighth inning when the Emperors would extend it to 4-0 after Justin Long came into the game, walking his first two batters. A sacrifice bunt would put runners on second and third before a two out single scored two runs to extend the Hot Rods lead to 3-0. They would then add onto the lead with a run scoring double to push the lead to 4-0.
Down 4-0, the Emperors offense joined the conversation in the eighth inning and it all began with John Gil who collected his fourth homer of the season to make it 4-1. Later in the inning Colby Jones would add on another run with a sacrifice fly that would score Eric Hartman, and put Dixon Williams on third. An errant pickoff by the pitcher would then allow Dixon Williams to score and make the deficit just one at 4-3. Logan Braunschweig would then hit a two out double to tie the game at 4-4.
After exchanging zeroes in the ninth inning the game headed to extra innings when the Hot Rods singled in the ghost runner to take back the lead at 5-4. Isaac Gallegos, working his second inning, would then get the next three batters out to keep it 5-4 and allow the Emperors a legitimate chance to win it. An RBI single by Mason Guerra tied the game, and a bases loaded sacrifice fly by Colin Burgess would walk it off for the Emperors.
(10-17) Kannapolis Cannon Ballers 7, (14-13) Augusta GreenJackets 6
It was a rough start of the game for Davis Polo who has had a great return to baseball in 2026. He surrendered a home run on the second pitch of the game, before allowing a single, stolen base, walk, double, walk, and one more walk before he registered his first out of the game. He would go on to allow a total of four runs in that first before he really got things together.
He would face just one batter over the minimum over the next three innings and leave the game down just two runs thanks to Tanner Smith’s first homer of the game, that would score Tate Southisene.
— Augusta GreenJackets (@GreenJackets) May 3, 2026
Kendy Richard (4IP 7H 3ER 1BB 4K, 2 HR), having a very rough start to 2026, came in for Davis Polo and struggled again including allowing a homer, double, and triple to give Kannapolis a 6-3 lead, in just a single inning. However, the GreenJackets would respond with two runs of their own in the bottom of the sixth via an rbi single by Dallas Macias, and Alex Lodise making it a one run game again.
The back-and-forth would continue the next inning with a home run by the Cannon Ballers to extend their lead to 7-5. HOWEVER, it was Tanner Smith yet again, this time in the seventh inning – who would homer for the third time in the game and make the game 7-6.
— Augusta GreenJackets (@GreenJackets) May 3, 2026
Styven Paez would pitch a scoreless ninth inning to give the GreenJackets a chance to tie it, or walk it off, in the bottom of the ninth. Alex Lodise would reach on the first pitch of the ninth, hitting a single to left but would be stranded there as the GreenJackets would fall.
It has been a tough stretch for major Boston sports teams.
Not that they are due any sympathy, we’re not here for that, but over the past few months we have seen the Boston Red Sox limp out of the gate and fire their entire coaching staff, the Boston Bruins get bounced out of the first round of the NHL Playoffs by the Buffalo Sabres, the New England Patriots get embarrassed in Super Bowl LX — and we will come back to them in a moment — and now the Boston Celtics blow a 3-1 series lead to the Philadelphia 76ers.
How historic was that Celtics’ collapse? Until their loss in Game 7 on Saturday night, Boston was 32-0 all-time when holding a 3-1 series lead. As for the 76ers, they were 0-18 in their franchise history when trailing 3-1 in a playoff series.
The win for the 76ers was also their first over Boston in a playoff series since 1982.
As you might expect, the fine folks at Inside the NBA had some fun at Boston’s expense following that collapse, putting together a graphic of both Celtics players and noted Boston figures together on their “gone fishing” graphic.
That graphic included Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and former NFL reporter Dianna Russini at the front of the boat, in true Titanic fashion:
'Inside the NBA' on ESPN includes Dianna Russini and Mike Vrabel on the "Gone Fishing" graphic for the Boston Celtics. pic.twitter.com/NxhFY302aq
The hosts of Inside the NBA tried their best to avoid the topic.
“Who are the two people at the front?” Kenny Smith asked as he perhaps tried to bait someone into addressing the topic. “I don’t know them.”
“Stop it, stop it,” pleaded Charles Barkley.
“Ben Affleck and Matt Damon on there, Tatum and Brown,” added Ernie Johnson. “That’s all I see on that boat. I don’t see anything else.”
Yes, that brings us back to the Patriots, who have been in the news these past few weeks thanks to the swirling rumors around their head coach, and his relationship with Russini. Rumors continue to follow the pair, and Vrabel even stepped away from the team for the final day of the 2026 NFL Draft for counseling, as he works towards becoming the “best version of me going forward.”
Until we see that version, we might see more and more moments like this.
BOSTON, MA - MAY 2: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball during the game against the Boston Celtics during Round One Game Seven of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on May 2, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
BOSTON — Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid had the last laugh on Saturday night.
F**k Embiid! F**k Embiid! F**k Embiid!
In the second quarter of Game 7, as Embiid took a trip to the free-throw line with over five minutes left, that was the only thing the 2023 NBA MVP could hear. Boston Celtics fans, accustomed to watching Embiid falter against them in the playoffs for years, tried everything to throw him off.
But nothing worked.
“Obviously, coming back down 3-1 is tough,” Embiid said after Philadelphia’s 109-100 win. “I understand it because we just did it. Then, missing three of those games, and really four, because the first game was kind of just me getting back to myself. It’s tough, but it feels good to win. Obviously, we got a bigger goal in mind, but finally beating these guys feels pretty good.”
Before Saturday night, the Celtics had Embiid’s number. He hadn’t survived a playoff matchup against Boston in three previous instances (2018, 2020, 2023), plus the Celtics — in their 79-year history — had never blown a 3-1 series lead, nor had they been eliminated by the Sixers in 44 years. Historically, Boston had gone 32-0 when holding a 3-1 lead, while Philadelphia had been 0-18 when trailing in that situation.
Three weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery in Houston, Embiid went toe-to-toe with the biggest moment of his career — and conquered. He dominated the Celtics and made an example out of their defense while coach Joe Mazzulla desperately threw the kitchen sink at him. Boston trainer Drew Moore even got in on the psychological antics by refusing to hand the game ball to Embiid after a Celtics turnover, leading to a tense encounter on the sidelines.
Still, nothing could faze Embiid — not a chant, not the antics, not even the 18 Celtics banners hanging above him or the playoff demons that have haunted him throughout his career.
Joel Embiid got creative on this shot! 👀@sixers lead after the 1st quarter of Game 7!
Embiid finished with a game-high 34 points with 12 rebounds and six assists to lead the Sixers to their biggest playoff comeback in franchise history. Twice, he dropped 30 points on the Celtics and single-handedly turned the series around just as Boston had Philadelphia on the ropes, battling for dear life.
When assessing the series immediately after Saturday night’s loss, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla began by highlighting Embiid.
“What changed in this series was Joel Embiid came back,” Mazzulla said, “and that’s what changed in the series.”
Boston failed to fully take advantage of Embiid’s absence to begin the series by losing the second game at home. Embiid returned when the series arrived in Philadelphia for Game 4 and proceeded to average 28 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists on 44.3 percent from the field for the series.
In Game 5, Embiid made a critical adjustment after shooting 0-of-5 from 3-point range in the first half. He abandoned the deep ball in the second half and flipped the script, shooting 7-of-10 from the field by finding offense exclusively inside the paint. Mazzulla threw Neemias Queta, Nikola Vučević, and Luka Garza at Embiid, and it didn’t make a difference.
Embiid backed them down, left them in the dust, and knocked down turnaround jumpers from the mid-range. In the second half, Embiid scored five times against Queta, five times against Vučević, and twice against Garza.
“It was tough,” Jaylen Brown said. “Embiid put a lot of pressure on us — on all our bigs, all our guards. We didn’t really have an answer for him. We tried a bunch of different things, and he’s just a big body. He also was flopping around, and he got some extra calls, and they rewarded him for that. But that’s the league that we’re in.”
In the fourth quarter of Game 5, Embiid dodged an injury scare when he took a fall and immediately grabbed his left knee — prompting a brief trip to Philadelphia’s locker room alongside a team trainer. It wasn’t the first fall Embiid took throughout the series, although the 10-year veteran, who’s battled scrutiny for his extensive injury history, claimed he feels just fine.
“I feel great. I feel amazing. I was faking it,” Embiid said of his health.
Relishing the moment Embiid had long awaited, he made sure to get everything off his chest when he spoke at the podium at TD Garden. Embiid credited his teammates for the jobs they did against Boston’s biggest offensive threats — the Celtics were held to under 100 points four times in the series.
“Those guys really took on the challenge of guarding those guys,” Embiid highlighted. “Whether it’s (Jayson) Tatum, (Payton) Pritchard — No. 11 — Jaylen Brown. So it helps when you have that. That means you can’t overhelp. You can just do your job, and obviously, knowing Boston, kind of live and die by the three. So you take that away.”
Embiid continued: “I told the guys if we wanna go two for twos against them, we’re going to win that battle because we have a lot of mismatches, starting with me.”
He refused to refer to Pritchard by name as a response to his comments from earlier in the series when Pritchard was asked about Boston’s game plan for Embiid’s then-possible return.
Embiid used Pritchard’s comments as fuel and revisited them following Game 7.
“It does also help when I saw No. 11 on their team before I came back, he said they didn’t care if I was playing or not, and they hadn’t even adjusted or had some sort of game plan for me,” Embiid said. “So, I think it also helps that when the other team doesn’t worry about you and have some solid game plan being prepared for you. So it helps you have better games. I thank No. 11 for that.”
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 30: Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics leaves the press conference after speaking to the media after Game Six of the First Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 30, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Boston Celtics 106-93. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We are defined by our choices. The ones we make, the ones we don’t, and those we make too late. For their last game of the season, the Celtics will be remembered for the latter.
The first decision that defined the game, and how it will be remembered, was the starting five.
It’s not about how you start, but it is
Late in Game 6, the Celtics coaching staff, led by Joe Mazzulla, decided to put the starters on the bench in the last 10 minutes of the game and see how the bench mob could answer.
However, when Game 7 was about to start, it was expected that the Celtics would go with their best lineup available—or at least a lineup that had played together before. But that wasn’t the case. The Celtics started with Luka Garza at center, Ron Harper Jr. and Baylor Scheierman on the wings. They also gave the Tyrese Maxey assignment to Jaylen Brown to try new things.
After five minutes, the Celtics were down by 11, and they finally put Payton Pritchard and Neemias Queta on the court. In the end, the Celtics lost the game by nine points. Maybe it was the late-game decision that cost them the season, or maybe it was the first decision of the game that knocked them out of the playoffs.
Hugo Gonzalez at the rescue
It took seven games—and a 13-point deficit after the first quarter—to finally see Hugo Gonzalez on the court. Hugo Gonzalez had already proven that he could defend quick ball-handlers like Maxey, strong wings like Paul George, or big men like Joel Embiid.
Hugo Gonzalez also led the Celtics in various impact metrics, such as net rating and possession impact. The Celtics knew that one of their best versions came with him on the floor because of the chaos and versatility he brings. Yet, it took them falling off a cliff to finally use him.
Spamming the pick-and-roll
The Celtics got back into the game in the second quarter thanks to the defensive hustle brought by Hugo Gonzalez, but also with a smart offensive game plan. They finally moved away from Brown isolations and spammed pick-and-roll actions to attack the Sixers’ big men, who were struggling whenever they were involved.
This is when the Celtics offense was at its best because they were attacking the Sixers’ weaknesses. Their wings and guards are strong, but their big men are old and slow. Once you get them moving, the defensive structure collapses. It was far more efficient than mismatch-hunting isolations, especially against this team.
Finally going away from the drop
Using the big man as a safety has been at the core of the Celtics’ defensive success since 2022. It worked with Robert Williams, it worked with Kristaps Porzingis, it worked with Luke Kornet, it worked in the regular season, and it worked in previous playoffs. However, we had to wait until the Celtics were down by double digits in the second half to see it deployed against the Sixers.
The Sixers found some answers to it—and the Celtics’ defensive execution of that tactic wasn’t at its best—but it bothered Embiid enough to give the Celtics a chance at another comeback, putting them in position to win in the final minutes.
Another great choice that came too late. The Celtics beat themselves by taking too long to make the right adjustments—the ones that had worked all season. They forgot what made them elite for so long and got turned upside down by a team that was tired of losing to them.
SAN ANTONIO, TX - JANUARY 17: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs drives on Minnesota Timberwolves in the second half at Frost Bank Center on January 17, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s been seven days since the Spurs vanquished the Portland Trail Blazers in Round 1 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs, and now, it’s finally gameday again. For Round 2, the Spurs face a Minnesota Timberwolves squad whose size gave them plenty of trouble in the regular season (as well as Nikola Jokic in Round 1) but is facing its own questions regarding health and offensive production, with Donte DiVincenzo out and Anthony Edwards and first round hero Ayo Dosunmo questionable. To get some perspective from the Wolves’ point of view, I enlisted the help of Thilo Widder from our sister site, Canis Hoopus.
J.R. Wilco
I think you’d agree that to say that you were down on Minnesota’s chances entering Game 6 would be a pretty serious understatement. Your piece on Denver’s win over the Wolves in Game 5 was about as serious an indictment of your team’s performance as the government’s charges against Harish Chidambaran.
And yet you guys made Nikola Jokic look ordinary and Jamal Murray look putrid. Minny took the “next man up” mantra to another level. See, that cliche is supposed to mean that when a guy goes down, his replacement is ready to play in his place. It’s not supposed to mean that the replacement suddenly auditions to be a starter on the all star team! I went from being ecstatic that the Spurs wouldn’t play Denver to being afraid that they’d be hard pressed to take down a team that’s currently under attack from the injury bug.
So tell me, a) how did you guys take down Denver while so shorthanded, b) what should I be most concerned about in Game 1, and what are you most afraid of, besides Wemby?
Thilo
Beating Denver in Game 6 came down to a few factors: paint touches, paint deterrence, and sheer, unadulterated hatred.
Before Ayo Dosumnu went down with a calf injury, his shot diet in his 43 point masterclass in Game 4 was functionally all layups outside of his 5/5 three point shooting. The rest of the Wolves team existed in a similarly slash-friendly environment.
There was, and this is no exaggeration, no rim protection whatsoever on the Nuggets roster to the point that Spencer Jones was the primary paint presence for Games 3-6. This enabled a TJ Shannon sighting (his only above-average skill at the NBA level is finding his way to the rim) and allowed the Timberwolves, one of the league’s most inconsistent offensive teams, to score over 110 in all but one game.
On the other side of things, Denver could not find a way to score at their normal level when run off the three point line. As much as we can point at Jamal Murray (and laugh), Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. turning back into pumpkins hurt just as much.
Funnily enough, Jaden McDaniels’ best defensive role is not as a perimeter stopper. While he’s more than capable there, he is arguably better suited as a help side defender (we’ll get to that later). To that point, I doubt we see a remotely similar strategy for San Antonio as we saw against Denver.
I’d say that role change for McDaniels is the biggest thing to be worried about. Outside of the obvious “we get to match your top-five player with our returning top-seven guy”, that’s the thing I hope would change.
A defensive matchup of Ayo on Fox, TJ on Vassell, and Gobert on Wemby, with Jaden roaming off of whoever of Castle or Champagnie is less intimidating could be incredibly fun, incredibly destructive, and disastrously low scoring.
As far as what’s the scariest in facing the Spurs, you guys just simply have more things you can count on than we do. While we have flexibility and house money, you have a winning formula that has been shaped by your whole season and has little to no restructuring needed.
For more concrete answers, the Wolves are already down a ton of initiators, and the defensive pressure the Spurs can put on guys who are already more used to and more prepared for facing third and fourth defensive options could instantly collapse the whole cobbled together formula the Wolves built so quickly.
That formula included a Game 6 lineup that was supersized, with Jaden McDaniels at the two, Naz Reid at the three, and both Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert filling out the space alongside TJ Shannon’s “go straight through them” play at point. The Spurs size comes primarily in the form of Wemby, how do the rest of the Spurs deal with that lineup and the size it brings?
J.R.
You say unadulterated hatred. I hear properly channeled distaste, because in my experience playing angry might work in spurts, but it will wear you out over a full 48 minutes. Shoot, even half a basketball game would probably be too much. That said, the way your crew was able to stick around with a dwindling roster until the clock struck midnight on Denver was one of the more impressive things I’ve seen in the NBA this year. Watching those Nuggets turning into pumpkins and mice was as enjoyable as it was unexpected.
You say that McDaniels’ defense isn’t best suited for being a perimeter stopper, but I’m going to expect Fox and Castle and Harper to put enough pressure on the Wolves that he’s going to need to spend time out there on the regular, regardless of how much he would prefer to play weak side help.
As for the lineup you asked about, my primary concern with this series is Randle and Reid wrecking San Antonio from deep when they have the ball, and causing Wemby all kinds of problems as they defend. Honestly, besides Aaron Gordon, Julius probably played the best defense I saw on Victor all season. As for how San Antonio will deal with all that size, that’s the $64,000 question, and I’m so glad it’s being asked.
For so much of the season, Mitch Johnson has allowed the Spurs to play pretty ordinary sets without much imagination or complexity. Or to be more blunt, San Antonio’s offense has often been very straightforward and bordering on elementary. In defense of this strategy, it’s been effective. Why push the team to do more when a basic offense is enough to win? Well, the answer is: the playoffs. They’re here now and Minnesota’s defense and size might be exactly what forces the Spurs to pull out all the stops.
Now I’m not expecting them to start whizzing the ball around the court like the 2014 Spurs, but I wouldn’t complain if they did. Lacking that, I think San Antonio’s offense is at its best when Wemby is off the ball and the team takes advantage of the gravity his vertical threat creates. When teams are terrified of him getting downhill without the ball, or receiving passes anywhere close to the paint without a man bodying him, it opens up space for guys to shoot open threes and gash defenses with aggressive drives and timely cuts. That’s when defenses react to the pressure from the rest of the team such that Wemby gets single-teamed or even forgotten – which is obviously a death sentence.
Which brings me back to Wemby, and this time I won’t ask you to not use him as an answer to your question. With so much of your success against Denver being to attack the rim, and with Wemby being elite at protecting the paint and guarding multiple guys simultaneously, what do you see as the best chance that Minny has to produce points and make San Antonio’s defense uncomfortable?
Thilo
I could take this answer in so many different directions. The answer I want to give, or rather the thing that I think people can’t read about elsewhere, is Rudy Gobert’s impact as a passer on the short roll.
We often think of scoring in the paint as the only way to maximize drives. Either you lay it up or you don’t. Either you dunk it or you’re blocked, and so on.
Gobert has never been one to lay it up confidently, or even dunk it safely. Describing his offensive game as invisible was doing him a kindness for many, many years. When a player’s primary offensive impact is screen assists, you need to be a real basketball degenerate to give him some credit for that side of the ball.
However, a compliment that was once hard to give has now found itself to a more obvious, highlight-worthy place.
Taking a page from his mortal enemy, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert has evolved not as a play finisher, but as a play extender. There was a single play in Game 6 that led to a TJ Shannon three pointer in the right corner that comes to mind.
Pointing out just one play implies that this was a special occurrence, but this happened throughout the series. The worry with Wemby is always as much about rim deterrence as it is actual block numbers. A past version of Gobert would’ve been more willing to flail wildly at the rim in an attempt to draw a foul or do anything once the original plan of “finish the pick and roll” was flushed.
Today’s version of Gobert can rethink and create a new plan.
What does this mean on a larger scale? Improvisation is alive and well in Minnesota. Each player that should be getting rotation minutes for the Wolves has some way to deal with the court ending eight or so feet further from the rim than they are used to.
Jaden McDaniels’ mid range was fantastic in Game 6. TJ Shannon is a blur in transition. Julius Randle has his elbow touches. The list goes on. The playoffs are often about good players losing their favorite options and having to make due with their third or fourth choice.
This is no different.
The “motion offense” has been a bit of a running joke in Wolves circles ever since Chris Finch arrived in Minnesota. As much as higher management has approached roster building, Finch individually has valued one skill above all else: consistency.
Whoever is guarded by Wemby will be responsible for pulling him from the rim. Even moreso, I assume that whoever the Wolves will want to attack on switches will be the target for four of five players on the court. For the Suns in 2024, that player was Devin Booker. Last series, it was Jamal Murray. Against the Spurs? My guess would be DeAaron Fox.
There are so many more questions I’d have, but I’m sure Mitch Johnson reads this, and I don’t want to give away too many answers! We will see how this game turns out!
COVERS INTEL: Seven of St. Louis’ projected starters own a wOBA of at least .397 against righties throwing Patrick’s three most-used pitches.
Kurt Helin
Vaughn Dalzell
