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It’s official: the Yankees offense is in a slump. They have hit a new low this season, getting swept in four putrid games at Fenway by the last place Red Sox. The bats got no-hit through five innings in each of the final three games, not managing a hit until the eighth in the finale. As such, we have to go back to the last time they won a game to find a worthy candidate for At-Bat of the Week. It was certainly a deserving nominee, as Jasson Domínguez hit a home run from the right side off none other than Tarik Skubal.

We join Domínguez with two outs in the sixth inning last Wednesday at Comerica Park. The score is tied, 2-2, a pair of Paul Goldschmidt home runs in the first and third negated by the Tigers scoring in the second and fourth. Skubal has struck out the first two batters in the frame, but a Ben Rice single keeps the inning alive.

Skubal has already struck Domínguez out twice in his previous two ABs, both times throwing one high fastball and three changeups low and away. As such, you have to imagine that Domínguez is hunting the changeup in this encounter. He doesn’t get it from Skubal first pitch, who starts this AB with a 97 mph four-seamer up and in.

This is probably the best pitch Jasson has gotten to hit to this point, and it almost seems like it surprises him, the bat never leaving his shoulder on a very hittable pitch.

When Skubal is at his best, he establishes that fastball up and in to righties, which makes the low and away changeup all the more deadly.

This is such an unfair sequence from Skubal for the first two pitches of an AB. Look at the way he tunnels the changeup off the first-pitch four-seamer that landed for a called strike. Out of the hand, the change looks exactly like the pitch Domínguez just took, so it is no surprise to see him fooled into chasing and whiffing early over the top of the off-speed.

Just like that, Jasson finds him self in the hole, 0-2, facing one of the best strikeout artists of his generation. Now that Skubal has gotten Jasson to swing over the top of a changeup down and away, setting the hitter’s eye level down, he has the situation perfectly set up for a fastball above the zone.

Jasson fires an impressive swing to foul this pitch away. It’s excellent execution from Skubal, the 98 mph four-seamer close enough to the zone that the hitter has to swing but elevated in a spot that makes it really hard for Jasson to put it in play.

Now that Skubal has seen a willingness from Jasson to expand against the elevated heater, the obvious pitch here is another fastball just a little higher than the previous one.

It’s classic climbing the ladder from Skubal, this four-seamer in the same spot laterally over the plate but elevated a few inches higher than the one that preceded it. Therefore, it is a good take from Jasson, who we can see initially starts his swing before recognizing that this pitch is too high.

Skubal likely senses that Domínguez can still be tempted into chasing a high fastball with a little better execution, because he throws his third straight four-seamer up and away.

This one catches a lot more of the plate than the last two. Domínguez has clearly adapted a two-strike approach by this point, letting the ball travel before fighting it off with a late but still well-balanced swing.

Now that Skubal has shown Domínguez three straight four-seamers up and away, he looks to steal a strikeout looking by attempting to front-door a sinker. To the hitter, it should look like four-seamer in off the plate. Many might give up early on that pitch, only for the sinker’s 10 inches more arm-side movement to carry it back to the corner.

Skubal can’t quite execute to his spot, sailing this sinker a bit high. This pitch starts as a ball out of Skubal’s hand and doesn’t drop enough on its path toward home, making for a pretty straightforward take from Domínguez.

Four straight heaters should have sufficiently sped up Domínguez’s bat to make the changeup a killer option.

Had Skubal executed to the corner, I think this AB would have ended here. However, this pitch catches a fat chunk of the zone, so despite being early with his swing, Domínguez is able to foul it off to stay alive. Jasson likely wishes he could have this pitch back – the first real mistake he has seen – but that is the effect of all the prior fastballs to speed up his bat.

Hanging that changeup scares Skubal off the pitch temporarily, and he goes back to the strategy of trying to throw the elevated heater by Domínguez.

Skubal doesn’t quite finish this pitch and it stays up and away for ball three. Good eye from Domínguez to halt his swing.

Jasson has done an admirable job grinding back from 0-2 to a full count. Four of the last five fastballs he has seen have been high and out of the zone, so he’s getting a good sense of where Skubal’s misses are. What’s more, I had the sense watching this entire AB unfold that Jasson never moved away from sitting on a changeup in a hittable zone just from the way he was fouling off those high fastballs. He knows that pitch is probably his best shot at doing damage as he’s just not catching up to the heater.

Domínguez’s patience is rewarded, Skubal throwing his second mistake changeup of the encounter. Unlike the one he fouled off two pitches ago, Jasson doesn’t miss this time. He wins the nine-pitch battle, barreling the pitch over the wall in left for the go-ahead two-run home run, an impressive place to go yard as a righty in Comerica Park.

Here’s the full AB:

This encounter was the epitome of a “good AB” as Aaron Boone is wont to say. Domínguez quickly fell behind 0-2 but didn’t panic, making sure to foul off close pitches to stay alive. He didn’t expand the zone when Skubal tried to get him to chase, eventually battling back to work the count full. And finally, when his hard work was paid off by a mistake in the zone, he did not miss it and punished it to the fullest, which is the only way you are going to beat a starter of Skubal’s quality.

Domínguez’s improvement batting from the right hand side is a serious developmental win for the 23-year-old. Last year, Domínguez batted .204 with a 32.7-percent strikeout rate and 63 wRC+ from the right side vs. a .274 average, 24.9-percent strikeout rate, and 116 wRC+ batting lefty. This year, those splits have flipped, with Domínguez now batting .270 with a 23.1-percent strikeout rate and 105 wRC+ from the right side vs. just a .182 average, 21.3-percent strikeout rate, and 69 wRC+ batting lefty. He has now experienced success from both sides of the plate in separate years, the question now is whether he can combine those on a consistent basis.

After a rough series in Tampa, Arizona comes home to hopefully get right again against the flailing Giants.

To say that Arizona had a rough go of things while in Tampa is putting things mildly. After a dreadful road trip, Arizona limps home with a record one game below .500 . They remain third in the NL West, but that doesn’t tell the story of their postseason aspirations, as even the Padres (the second place team) are now 10.5 games out of first as the Dodgers are finally putting the daylight between themselves and the division in the manner that most expected them to. No, their path to October baseball runs through the Wild Card, and they remain three games back in that race, trying to charge down the St. Louis Cardinals while also dealing with the four teams between them and the Red Birds from Missouri.

This series is going to force Mike Hazen and his advisors to make some difficult decisions. Continuing to kick the can down the road is not really much of an option anymore. The fallout from those upcoming decisions could go a very long way towards dictating Mike Hazen’s trade deadline strategy. If Arizona wants to have any realistic hope of achieving playoff baseball this year, they need to leave this series at or above .500. They also need to get there without losing any more players to injury.

Game 1

Tyler Mahle, RHP, 1-7, 5.49 ERA, 61 SO
vs.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, 6-2, 2.27 ERA, 70 SO

Eduardo Rodriguez has been every bit the pitcher they thought they were signing back in 2024. Quite frankly, he has been Arizona’s best starting pitcher this season. Without his return to form, Arizona would likely already been sharing basement space with the Colorado Rockies in the standings. On the other side of things, Mahle is having himself a season to forget. Mahle’s win-loss record is not as indicative of his 12 starts as one might hope. In fact, it makes him look better than he has been. Sporting an ERA+ of 72, Mahle has never struggled this hard at any point in his professional career. The 31-year-old journeyman is coming to the point of pitching for his place on the 26-man roster. This would be an excellent game for the Diamondbacks to make a statement, having the lefty hitters pile on to put a dagger into the heart of the Giants from the outing. The sooner they can swat Mahle out of the game, the sooner thay can burn down the bullpen. Of course, that will mean Arizona will have to finally start having better performances hitting with RISP and taking walks, as Mahle still averages over five innings per outing, despite his struggles.

Game 2

Landen Roupp, RHP, 5-7, 4.07 ERA, 95 SO
vs.
TBD

Despite some very pedestrian, essentially league average, results, Roupp is averaging a bit over six innings per start. This ability to pitch later into games is another reason for Arizona to do their best to get into the bullpen early in the first game against Mahle. Roupp is 0-2 in his last five starts. In the two losses, he was blown up. In the three no decisions, he held the opposition to two runs or fewer. Roupp does a fair job of limiting the free passes, so Arizona is going to need to be patient. Attacking early plays into Roupp’s ability to go deep. Making him work increases the chances of Arizona finding a crack to exploit. It will also continue to put pressure on San Francisco’s beleaguered bullpen.

To counter, Arizona will be turning to the ageless wonder, TBD. In this case, TBD is looking more and more like Brandon Pfaadt. Jose Cabrera remains in the rotation already. Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake are ineligible to return to the 26-man roster unless another injury move is made. Brandon Pfaadt did not pitch during the series in Tampa. How long Pfaadt will be allowed to go (assuming it is him) remains to be seen, as he was only throwing around 50 pitches for a while there in Reno. It could be that Arizona tosses a bullpen game, or potentially uses Pfaadt as an opener before going to the bullpen. There are a lot of moving pieces involved here and the speculation is running rampant while Arizona is (at least currently) playing this decision close to their chest.

Game 3

Trevor McDonald, RHP, 2-6, 4.94 ERA, 45 SO
vs.
Zac Gallen, RHP, 3-7, 6.15 ERA, 52 SO

Trevor McDonald, like the recently faced Drew Rasmussen, is stingy with the free pass. He isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, but he simply doesn’t give away at-bats. When he is hitting his spots, it makes him 2023 Merrill Kelly dangerous. When he is missing his spots, he looks like present-day Merrill Kelly. There is a reason McDonald is sporting an ERA+ of 80. Arizona needs to ambush McDonald and put their foot down on the gas. If they can get to him early, Zac Gallen might be nearly irrelevant. On that note, the Diamondbacks will be sending struggling former ace Zac Gallen to the mound. In his last outing, he was mostly adequate against the Rays. He gave up a terrible first inning before settling in and cruising through the next five, albeit without the strikeouts. If that version of Gallen shows up, Arizona should be in a good place for this game. If the Zac Gallen of many other outings this season shows up, this game could become ugly for both teams.

Players to Watch

At this point, there really is no primary player to watch. The questions greatly outweigh the answers right now. The players struggling, if they continue to struggle, will continue to weigh the team down. On the other hand, if Zac Gallen builds off his last outing and if the team can salvage the second game of the series, then this team continues to keep the playoff conversations alive. The Giants are having a terrible season and find themselves in much the same place as Arizona, needing to start looking at alternatives for future seasons.

The one exception to this might be Max Kepler. How long will the recently reinstated Kepler be given to make an impact. Even at his height, he was essentially an older version of Pavin Smith, who is already creating issues for Arizona. Kepler only has five plate appearances so far, so it is obviously early days. But it is hard to imagine that his leash is especially long. Look for him to either make an impact soon or to be sent to the DFA rejects heap.

Conclusion

This series presents Arizona with a great chance for a palate cleanser. They get to leave the AL East leading Rays in the rearview. They get to sleep in their own beds. They get to face one of the worst teams in the game right now. If Arizona takes two of three, they exit this series back at .500. If they can manage to dig deep and find their mojo in game two, they have a very good chance of sweeping this series, putting them back at two games over even as they prepare to host the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. It will be important for Arizona to come out of this series on a high note as their next three series are against the Brewers in Phoenix and then the Padres and Dodgers, both in California.

As everyone expected, there was a sweep at Fenway Park across the four games between the Red Sox and Yankees. The Sox are now 36-46, 12.5 games out of first place in the AL East, 4.5 games out of a Wild Card, tied in the loss column with the Orioles, one behind in losses against the Blue Jays. Boston is just 3 wins behind the Orioles and Jays. Those Jays have also lost 6 straight. Yes, the Yankees and Rays are the class of the East right now, but it’s back to essentially a pack of three battling for third. Facing “Red Sox Front Office – South” in the Washington Nationals is the next test. These Nationals can hit. And the Red Sox can pitch.

The Nats have allowed 5.22 runs per game on average, third highest in baseball behind only the Rockies and Athletics. That’s a cumulative 4.69 ERA among their pitchers. The Sox have allowed just 3.94 runs per game, fifth best in MLB with an ERA of 3.70.

Miles Miklolas is having, probably, his worst season. Even his FIP is approaching five-and-a-half. His numbers are slightly inflated from an 11-run outing in April but he’s also allowed 6 runs twice and 5 runs once. In June he’s been erratic in both runs and innings: 6 runs (6.0 innings) against the Marlins, 0 runs (4.2 innings) against the Giants, 0 runs (7.0 innings) against the Mariners, 5 runs (6 innings after an opener), and 2 runs (3.1 innings) against the Phillies. Ranger Suarez is rolling again. The Sox should have won his start in Colorado. Over his last four starts he’s allowed just 4 earned runs.

Cade Cavalli has cut his home run rate and boosted his strike outs since 2025. A righty, he’s been…pretty ok for the Nationals? He’s been on a good run in June: three 5.0 inning starts and one 6.0 outing with a 2.2 innings, 2 run performance mixed in. He was hit around for 6 runs (3 earned) once and 4 earned runs twice. He missed almost all of 2022-2024 and was up for just 48 innings in 2025. But the Nationals might have something here in the 27-year-old. Connelly Early started the sweep of the Yankees with a 6.0 inning / 2 run outing. He struck out a season-high 9 batters.

Andrew Alvarez is a 27-year-old southpaw from Anaheim, home of the Los Angeles Angels. He hasn’t gone more than 4.2 innings this season but was operating out of the ‘pen through May, although in 3.0-4.0 inning outings. Alvarez has the hard matchup in several ways going against Payton Tolle. Tolle took a no-hitter deep enough to get many people thinking about it. He didn’t allow a run to the Yankees over 7.0 innings. This Nationals team has power bats and he’s not getting an extra day of rest. It’ll be the next chance for Tolle to prove he’s going to be really special.

Nasim Nuñez is leading baseball with 32 steals.

Shortstop CJ Abrams is hitting .275/.358/.507 with 17 homers and 13 steals of his own.

James Wood is leading MLB in runs with 72. And walks with 64. And strikeouts with 121.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, June 29: Miles Mikolas (5.24 ERA / 5.31 FIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (2.83 ERA / 2.67 FIP)

Tuesday, June 30: Cade Cavalli (4.00 ERA / 3.53 FIP) vs. Connelly Early (3.59 ERA / 4.72 FIP)

Wednesday, July 1: Andrew Alvarez (3.44 ERA / 2.74 FIP) vs. Payton “72 Ounce” Tolle (2.78 ERA / 3.18 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday, June 29: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday, June 30: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, July 1: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

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With 13 games on the docket, it’s a busy night on the diamond Monday, June 29, and I’ve got a trio of MLB same-game parlay predictions to cover you throughout the action.

My top MLB picks begin with the Detroit Tigers upsetting the New York Yankees and wrap up with a high-scoring game in the nightcap between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
vs	+385
vs	+800
vs	+370

Tigers vs Yankees SGP: Mize quiets Bronx Bombers

The New York Yankees are in a 3-8 freefall while averaging just 2.6 runs per game and ranking 29th in both wOBA and xwOBA.

They draw Detroit Tigers righty Casey Mize on Tuesday, and he’s quietly turned in an excellent 3.14 xERA with 0.62 HR/9, so I’m expecting New York to be in tough offensively again tonight.

Of course, the Tigers are also beginning to pick it up at the plate with a fifth-ranked wOBA and sixth-ranked xwOBA while averaging 5.0 runs per game in June.

Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson rounds out the SGP, and he’s hit the Over in this market in six of the past nine games and sports an above-average .343 wOBA against lefties for the season.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, DSN

See full analysis of this game in our Tigers vs. Yankees predictions.

Padres vs Cubs SGP: Friars can't keep pace with North Siders

The wind is forecast to be blistering out at Wrigley Field, and the Chicago Cubs have paced the majors with 6.6 runs per game during their 12-4 heater while also ranking fourth in wOBA and seventh in xwOBA.

So, with the San Diego Padres sending righty Griffin Canning to the bump tonight, I’m anticipating another big night from the Chicago lineup.

Canning has surrendered a 52.1% hard-hit rate, which is tied for the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with 40 innings.

Still, I’m anticipating Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga to hold San Diego in check enough to keep this total Under the number thanks to his high-end 30.3% whiff percentage and 14.5 swinging-strikes percentage.

Finally, Chicago outfielder Ian Happ has teed off on righties this season to the tune of a .380 wOBA and .263 ISO, and he’s racked up 13 runs, 12 hits and six RBI across his past 15 games.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, SDPA

See full analysis of this game in our Padres vs. Cubs predictions.

Giants vs Diamondbacks SGP: Runs in bunches at Chase

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has statistical correction coming. His 2.27 ERA is miles below his 4.79 xERA, and the southpaw’s .251 BABIP and 86.9% strand rate are also way better than the respective .327 and 71.4% marks he posted during his first two seasons with the team.

I’m also expecting the San Francisco Giants to give Tyler Mahle a long enough leash to finish the fifth inning and record at least 15 outs for the ninth consecutive start, because their bullpen ranks 26th in ERA and 29th in xFIP across the past 30 days.

This is also perfect for the Over because he’s been beaten around on the highway the past two years with a 6.28 ERA while allowing a healthy .367 wOBA.

Arizona star Corbin Carroll rounds out the SGP, and he’s registered a hit in 14 of the past 19 games, and his .226 batting average against right-handed pitchers is way below the .250 mark he posted over the past two years.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, NBCSBA

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For 65 games, top Cincinnati Reds prospect Alfredo Duno mashed his way through Midwest League pitching for the A+ Dayton Dragons. He owned a .902 OPS while hitting .260/.390/.512, bashing 16 homers and driving in 47 runs while also serving as the team’s primary catcher.

Only two Midwest League players had more than Duno’s 16 homers as of Monday morning, one of them being his teammate Carter Graham, a 1B from Stanford University that the Reds drafted in the 8th round of the 2023 MLB Draft.

Those two will still be teammates come Tuesday – it’ll just be with a different squad.

The Reds are promoting both Duno and Graham to AA Chattanooga, along with shortstop Carlos Sanchez and outfielder Kien Vu. Right-hander Jose Montero is joining them in the promotion as well, according to Joey DeBeradino of Dayton’s WDTN.

It’s quite the honor for that crew, so congratulations to them. It will also temporarily create a pretty potent bit of star power on the Lookouts if they don’t make promotions of their own up to AAA Louisville.

Outfielders Carlos Jorge and Jay Allen currently anchor things on the grass, with Jorge having a breakout season in CF and Allen, a former 1st round pick, having the best offensive season of his pro career. Vu, presumably, will slot in alongside those two to form a solid, athletic-as-can-be outfield. Sanchez, meanwhile, will likely get time alongside Leo Balcazar on the middle infield with fellow top prospect Cam Collier anchoring 3B and Graham holding down 1B.

There’s no blocking Duno, of course. 25 year old Cade Hunter has been Chattanooga’s primary catcher so far this season, but he’s barely sporting a .600 OPS. Safe to say the Lookouts are about to get a big boost behind the plate beginning this week.

It does beg the question whether the Class A Daytona Tortugas will be promoting any Reds prospects to help fill these openings. 23 year old C/1B Jacob Friend is having a whale of a season in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and obviously there are now available PA at the A+ level for him at both positions. You’d like to hope that Sanchez’s promotion would pave the way for top prospect Tyson Lewis, too, whose overall body of work isn’t great (.687 OPS in 236 PA) although he has heated up a lot of late (.308/.386/.538 in the month of June).

We’ll find out exactly which dominos begin to fall soon!

The Mets had an eventful and generally brutal two weeks. The team had a 3-10 record since the last player meter and saw manager Carlos Mendoza fired and replaced with Andy Green on an interim basis. It wasn’t all terrible, as Juan Soto continued his domination, and the rookie outfielders Carson Benge and AJ Ewing remained bright spots.

Player	Last week	This week
Francisco Alvarez, C
Brett Baty, UTIL
Carson Benge, OF
Bo Bichette, 3B
A.J. Ewing, OF
Francisco Lindor, SS
Ronny Mauricio, INF
MJ Melendez, OF
Marcus Semien, 2B
Juan Soto, OF
Tyrone Taylor, OF		—
Luis Torrens, C
Mark Vientos, 1B/3B
Eric Wagaman, 1B/DH
Jared Young, 1B/DH

There’s not much to say about Juan Soto other than he continues to be fantastic for the Mets. Soto has a 210 wRC+ over the last two weeks and a wicked on-base percentage of .500. Despite missing two games with a sore back, Soto had eight games in which he got on base at least three times. He raised his average to .300 and maintained his NL-leading OPS of .973.

AJ Ewing had one of the best two-week stretches of his young career, notching 10 RBIs in his last 13 games. During that stretch, he had five extra-base hits and two go-ahead RBI hits in the most recent series against Philadelphia. Like Ewing, Carson Benge continued to prove why he’ll be a big part of the Mets’ future in the second half of June. While not as hot as he was in the early half of the month, he still had a 103 wRC+ over the last two weeks with at least one hit in 11 of his last 15 games.

Bo Bichette turned in his best month as a Met, remaining remarkably consistent throughout June. His wRC+ of 158 in the first half of June was nearly matched with a wRC+ of 154 in the second-half. Bichette did struggle a bit on the road trip to Philadelphia, where he went 1 for 12 and was booed by Philly fans for choosing the Mets over them in free agency last offseason. The word was Bichette, and the Phillies were close to a deal before the Mets swooped in, but Bichette made it clear that it wasn’t that serious and they were just friends. Bichette rebounded following that series and has an active seven-game hitting streak.

Francisco Lindor made his long-awaited return from the IL, getting two hits, including a triple, in three games played. Lindor hasn’t played in back-to-back games yet as the training staff eases him back into action following his calf injury. Ronny Mauricio also returned from an IL stint and has looked lost in his small sample size. Going 1 for 10 with three strikeouts, Mauricio got a pinch-hit opportunity with the bases loaded Sunday against the Phillies, but hit an infield pop-up.

Marcus Semien landed on the IL after an ugly few weeks that involved a 1-for-19 stretch and a wRC+ of 51. However bad Semien was before his injury, his struggles pale in comparison to Brett Baty‘s latest stretch. Baty has just two hits in his last 40 plate appearances, with an OPS of .340 and a wRC+ of 26. Mark Vientos has at least slightly overcome his poop emoji in the last player meter. He hit three home runs in the last two weeks with a 128 wRC+, but an ugly string of errors has him fighting for playing time once again.

The good news about Francisco Alvarez is that he has a 131 wRC+ over the last two weeks and appears to have picked up where he left off after missing time due to a knee injury. The bad news is that his 31.4 percent strikeout rate over that same stretch is hard to watch. Luis Torrens is trending down in his limited playing time since Alvarez’s return. Torrens went 4 for 22 in the second half of June with zero RBIs and five strikeouts.

Bless the hearts of Eric Wagaman and Jared Young as they fight hard to stay in the big leagues and try to help this sad Mets club. Wagaman had a 77 wRC+ in 22 plate appearances, mostly being used as a pinch hitter against left-handed pitching. He hit a pinch-hit two-run homer against the Chicago Cubs in a game that the Mets lost 4-3. Young appeared in 11 games, hitting two home runs with a wRC+ of 79.

MJ Melendez was sent down to Triple-A to make room for Tyrone Taylor, coming off the IL, after appearing in 10 games in the last two weeks. He registered an abysmal 36 wRC+ in those appearances, while Taylor has yet to get playing time.

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Fresh week loaded with plenty of opportunities to keep things green. Here are my favorite MLB picks and leans for tonight’s MLB slate.

MLB moneyline picks for June 29

Matchup	Pick
White Sox vs Cardinals	+125
Pirates vs Phillies	+100
Tigers vs Yankees	+130
Mets vs Blue Jays	+117
Rangers vs Guardians	-133
Nationals vs Red Sox	-160
Reds vs Brewers	-138
Pirates vs Cubs	-144
Twins vs Astros	-127
Marlins vs Rockies	+127
Angels vs Mariners	+190
Giants vs Diamondbacks	+125
Dodgers vs Athletics	+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-29.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 29

White Sox vs Orioles: White Sox (+125)

White Sox win probability: 44%

People are going to see that the Chicago White Sox are on the road and fade them just for that reason. I think it's foolish to fade arguably one of the most dangerous teams in baseball, regardless of where they're playing.

Snagging the power of friendship at +125 feels like a gift, as they own a 140 wRC+, .372 wOBA, and .848 OPS over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles own a wRC+ below 80, .264 wOBA, and .633 OPS during that stretch. Give me the Sox!

Pirates vs Phillies: Pirates (-100)

Pirates win probability: 51%

Aaron Nola is on the bump for the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up a hard-hit rate above 42% and a barrel rate above 10.5%. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates have Braxton Ashcraft on the mound, sporting a 2.93 road ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and giving up just a 3.45% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

I want to ride the hotter offense, and that's clearly the Pirates, as they own a 149 wRC+, .878 OPS, and .380 wOBA over their last six games. GO RATS!

Tigers vs Yankees: Tigers (+130)

Tigers win probability: 44%

Disgusting. 

These two offenses that are ice cold at the moment. It would be real easy for me to say this is a bounce back spot for the New York Yankees, after getting swept by the Red Sox this weekend, but at +130, I want the Detroit Tigers.

Over the last week, they've performed at a higher level offensively, and I love the value in taking them this evening. 

Mets vs Blue Jays: Mets (+117)

Mets win probability: 46%

Another team coming off a sweep is the Toronto Blue Jays, who now take on a New York Mets team that's starting to heat up. New York has a 111 wRC+ over their last six games, with a .182 ISO and sub-10% barrel rate. On the other side, Toronto has a WRC+ below 80, a 24% strikeout rate, and a 5% barrel rate in their last six games. 

Give me the Mets!

Rangers vs Guardians: Guardians (-133)

Guardians win probability: 57%

Sure, the Texas Rangers are scorching hot coming off sweeping the ice-cold Blue Jays, but now they have a real test in front of them: Parker Messick. The Cleveland Guardians southpaw has been nails this season, with a 2.89 ERA at home and a 2.45 xERA over his last three starts. The kid rocks. Sure, this Guardians offense has been abysmal, but we just need the bare minimum from them. 

Nationals vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-160)

Red Sox win probability: 62%

Real quick and easy, staying home after sweeping the Yankees, I think the Boston Red Sox keep it rolling into Monday night. Plus, Ranger Suarez has been lights out in his last five starts. 

Reds vs Brewers: Brewers (-138)

Brewers win probability: 58%

Without question: Milwaukee Brewers. Sure, both they and the Cincinnati Reds have been ice cold as of late, but the Reds are always cold in my opinion. They are the more inconsistent offense and have a much higher strikeout rate this season. 

Cincinnati left-hander Nick Lodolo has been horrible this season, owning a 5.09 xERA in his last five starts. I don't see that turning around this evening.  

Padres vs Cubs: Cubs (-144)

Cubs win probability: 59%

How am I supposed to back the San Diego Padres when Griffin Canning's 9.56 road ERA is in my face? Not to mention his 17% road walk rate, allowing nearly 45% hard hit and 10% barrel rate this season. I do not need to say anything more: take the Chicago Cubs. Canning will likely give up 4+ runs before the fifth. 

Twins vs Astros: Astros (-127)

Astros win probability: 56%

I will get to my reasoning once we figure out what a "Zebby" is. Whatever the origin of that name is, he's still sporting a 7.33 road ERA, while his opponent, Peter Lamber, has a 2.16 xERA in his last three outings. 

I love Yordan Alvarez today, so I have to lean with the Houston Astros.  

Marlins vs Rockies: Rockies (+127)

Rockies win probability: 44%

Sure, Sean Sullivan has been brutal for the Pebbles this season, but their offense as of late has been on fire. In the Colorado Rockies' last 21 games, they own a 123 wRC+, .837 OPS, and .209 ISO. I am fully expecting them to be out for revenge after failing to secure the series win over the Twins yesterday. 

Angels vs Mariners: Angels (+190)

Angels win probability: 34%

Two cold offenses, I want the value.

“But 34%, but 34%!”

Okay?

George Kirby has not looked like peak form over his last five outings, posting a sub-5.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP while allowing a 42% hard-hit rate. The Los Angeles Angels, meanwhile, have seven batters hitting above .333 over their last 30 plate appearances, with seven also carrying an OPS above .790.

Seattle’s offense has cooled off, and I want the plus money on the Angels at this price.

Giants vs Diamondbacks: Giants (+125)

Giants win probability: 44%

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone ice cold at the plate. Over their last 21 games, they own an 87 wRC+, .659 OPS, and .134 ISO. On the other side, the San Francisco Giants have been one of the hotter offenses in baseball during that same stretch, posting a 124 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .781 OPS.

Neither starting pitcher is particularly inspiring, but I trust the hotter lineup to capitalize. At plus money, I will gladly back the Giants in this spot.

Dodgers vs A's: Athletics (+104)

Athletics win probability: 49%

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just one hitter batting above .300 over their last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, with only two above .250 and six slugging under .357. I will side with the Athletics, who have been rolling against lefties this season. I already like Shea Langeliers to get things started, and hopefully the rest of the lineup follows him.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Today marks the returned of Bo Bichette to Rogers Centre.

Neither he, nor his team are doing well. The Mets are 35-49 deep in last place in the NL East, 7.5 games back of fourth. The fired their manager, though I think the GM deserves more of the blame. Their playroll is $328.3 million (Blue Jays aren’t all that fair behind at $307 million).

Both teams have a number of players on the IL. We won’t see Marcus Semien this series. He’s out for awhile with a hip flexor strain.

Bichette is having a tough season, hitting .245/.300/.388 with 10 home runs, but he has started hitting in June, .337/.358/.574. Maybe he could tell Vlad how to get hitting again. Bo’s been bouncing between shortstop and third the last couple of weeks. FanGraphs likes his defense better at third (+2 OAA) than short (-2).

Everyone is wondering how he’ll react to his tribute video. I’m sure he’ll give a nice wave and then try to forget it. But I hope he soaks in the cheering some.

For our side? I would be nice to get through the first couple of innings (or even first couple of outs) without giving up a run or several.

Probable starting pitchers:

Tonight: Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.87) vs. Trey Yesavage (3.56)

Tuesday: Nolan McLean (4-5, 4.03) vs. Kevin Gausman (4-6,4.36)

Wednesday: Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.53) vs. Patrick Corbin (2-4, 5.09). This one is a day game, 3:00 Eastern.

And then we have an off-day Thursday

Gausman’s had a rough June, 7.62 ERA. And the last two starts were pretty much over after the first couple of innings. Coming into the month he had a 3.13 ERA.

Maybe we could try holding the Mets of the scoreboard for the first couple of innings, at very least. Give us some hope.

That was a great weekend to miss a bunch of Jays games. Not that it was a great weekend for biking, cool, rain, strong wind, all the fun stuff. Two years in a row with crappy weather, but I still signed up for next year.

Three one run losses, though none of them seemed that close. Well, except for the one lost on the wild pitch, a terrible way to loss a game.

The Jays are giving away 500 tickets to the Canada Day game:

Tickets will be distributed on a first come first served basis on Tuesday, June 30, with 225 pairs given away in-person across the three surprise locations, each popping up at a different time throughout the day. An additional 25 pairs of tickets will be given away on Instagram. Details for the giveaways, including the timing and location of each pop-up will be revealed on Rogers Instagram beginning at 7 a.m. ET.

To qualify for the ticket giveaway, customers must show a wireless device connected to the Rogers network, a Rogers Red Mastercard, the MyRogers app logged in to an active account, or a hard copy of a Rogers bill with accompanying photo ID.

Personally, having to get up at 7:00 am is the opposite of free, but that’s me.

I’m hoping that Sean Keys gets into all three games. I hate when they bring someone up and he doesn’t play. I’d love to see Keys and Piñango play in every game.

The Jays are saying that Addison Barger is having some soreness. They say it is ‘normal soreness’ that happens with rehab. I’m not so sure, but then it doesn’t matter what I think. They are still saying he’ll be back sometime in mid-July. I’m a pessimist so I always take the over on these things.