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The AL West is an intriguing division to unpack. Last year was a bit of a turnaround, as the Astros failed to win it in a full season for the first time since 2016, and actually missed the playoffs for the first time since that season. The Mariners project to be the crema of the crop this year, and in fact, have one the better projections in the AL overall.

There’s a fair bit of uncertainty here beyond the Mariners looking like the best team in the division, and every team addressed the offseason in a different way.

Seattle Mariners

On paper, it feels like Seattle has a great chance to win the division in back-to-back years, something the franchise has never managed in their history. (Their only consecutive playoff appearances came in 2000-2001, thanks to the 116-win campaign in the latter year. The Mariners have this bizarre thing where, in their history, they’ve had ten different seasons with 85+ wins and no playoff berth; they’ve only had five seasons with 85+ wins and a playoff berth.)

The rotation was fine last year and looks pretty good heading into 2026. Josh Naylor is back on a big-money $92.5 million, five-year deal. The eventual Brendan Donovan transaction saw him make his way to Seattle, and Jose Ferrer cost a big-time prospect but will now pair with Gabe Speier as another lefty option in their bullpen.

Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez (a midseason (re-)acquisition last year) have moved on. Whether Cal Raleigh can pull off an encore season remains a question, but he’s projected to be the top catcher in the game in 2026. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a monster despite complaints about consistency, and gives the Mariners the best center field projection in MLB as well. One spot to watch will be shortstop, as J.P. Crawford is playing through a shoulder woe in Spring Training and had an unfortunate defensive season last year. He’s now in his 30s, and while the Mariners have Colt Emerson bumping around, the situation is somewhat fluid.

Overall, this is a dangerous team projected for 88 wins as a central estimate.

Houston Astros

The Astros and Braves both missed the playoffs in the first time in seemingly forever last year, and both have tried to reload. The Astros rejiggered their rotation, signing Tatsuya Imai from overseas and dealing for Mike Burrows. Overall, their roster doesn’t wow you, and the hope is that the Jeremy Pena-Carlos Correa-Yordan Alvarez triumvirate hits enough to make up for an unsettled situation in right field, while the bullpen carries some water for a rotation that will need someone (probably Imai) to step up behind Hunter Brown.

The FanGraphs Steamer-ZiPS blend is not a fan of their up-and-down roster, seeing the Astros as something like 80-82 as a central estimate. ZiPS alone is much more positive, with an 87-win central estimate that’s just one game behind the Mariners. The Astros are, overall, reminiscent of the Braves — not just because both teams need a bounceback into contention after what is hopefully a one-year blip, but also because there are depth issues that threaten to upend the whole thing.

Texas Rangers

Both the Depth Charts and ZiPS have the Rangers as around a .500 team. That’s what they’ve been the last two years after their 2023 title run, so that makes sense. They’ve retooled, swapping Skip Schumaker for Bruce Bochy in the manager seat, moving Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo, and acquiring MacKenzie Gore for a bunch of prospects. The team will definitely look different than its prior iterations, but whether that moves the needle, who knows?

There are question marks and potential downsides at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and in the bullpen. But there is also a ton of upside at shortstop (hi Corey Seager) and all over the outfield, not to mention that this looks like a top-five rotation on paper. It’s a mix-and-match roster construction that could be great with some good fortune, or awful if some of the expected producers get hurt or regress. If the rotation leads the way, maybe the offense does just enough to vault them out of the .500 range.

The Athletics

No one has the Athletics as particularly good, but you don’t need to be particularly good to make a playoff run these days, and at least their roster is pretty fun. They spent the offseason handing out extensions to youngesters like Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson, while also acquiring veterans like Jeff McNeil to play babysitter.

Overall, the Athletics are projected squarely below .500, but there’s some stuff to like here. Nick Kurtz was a monster and could be monstrous again. Combined with Brent Rooker and Soderstrom, there’s some real offensive heft here in a small park. The real issue is the pitching, both on the rotation and relief end. The rotation doesn’t have much upside (Luis Severino dominating the U.S. lineup for 3 1/3 innings last night notwithstanding), and the bullpen is more about hoping for breakouts and bouncebacks than anything else. This is a roster where the position players look like a fringy contender and the pitching staff looks like a miserly rebuilder. If they can force slugfests every night in that park, though, they might make some noise, though.

Los Angeles Angels

Ah, the Angels. Has a team ever done so little with so much? Maybe they’re thankful for the Mets.

Former Brave Kurt Suzuki is the Halos’ new manager, and GM Perry Minasian may be on the hot seat as well at this point. The roster has retooled, moving Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez, while signing a quintet of relievers and adding a bunch of position player depth. As the roster keeps changing, it’s hard to know exactly how it’s all going to play out, but the projections have them as the dregs of the division. You can see why, though:

• They’re projected to have the worst production from catcher and second base in MLB.
• First base, third base, the entire outfield, and DH are also poor in this regard, while projections don’t care for their bullpen additions.
• Zach Neto is one of the few exciting parts of this roster.

Basically, the Angels are hoping that a solid rotation provides cover for everything else, or that everyone gets better in a hurry. If those things don’t happen, then it’ll be consistent with prior years… again. No one will really notice that the composition of the roster has changed.

The Tampa Bay Rays head into 2026 in a somewhat familiar position: a payroll well below most divisional rivals, a roster built more on ingenuity than name recognition, and a front office quietly convinced they can squeeze more wins out of this group than any algorithm will give them credit for.

One potential area of difference: the Rays’ typical areas of strength and weakness. For one, the usually light-hitting team has one of the league’s more exciting bats in Junior Caminero. In 2025, the 22-year-old third baseman casually posted a 45-homer, .264/.311/.535 season in 2025, making him not just the face of the franchise, but the sort of player who seems like he’ll one day go and sign a 12-year deal with the Yankees. That’s a few years from now, anyway.

On the other hand, the pitching staff—where Tampa Bay usually shines—harbors a few reasons for concern. All told, since last season the Rays lost a total of nine pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen. This team seems to have a magic ability to find good pitching out of nowhere, but they still find themselves having to rebuild more than half of last year’s innings.

Let’s dive into some of the recent comings and goings.

Additions and Subtractions

Since 2025, the Rays lost nine pitchers and five position players. The former includes starters Shane Baz (you know where he went), Zack Littell (at last year’s trade deadline), and Adrian Houser, not to mention Zach Eflin the year before that. Relievers Pete Fairbanks, a longtime weapon, Eric Orze, Forrest Whitley and Mason Montgomery, among others, also flew the coop.

The departed position players include University of Maryland alum and longtime Ray Brandon Lowe (2B), dealt to Pittsburgh, and three outfielders in Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Kameron Misner, plus 1B/OF Christopher Morel.

To cover these holes, the Rays did what they do, which is go in aggressively on low-cost veteran talent. Perhaps the most notable acquisition was Cedric Mullins, the former Oriole who can hit for power, steal bases, and play a reliable center field. Tampa also brought back speedster Jake Fraley, an outfielder who was a former second-round pick a decade ago. The Rays acquired one more outfield glove in Justyn-Henry Malloy, via trade with the Tigers, and a veteran utility man in Gavin Lux.

The projected Tampa Bay batting order will lean heavily on its top four spots. In his second season, centerfielder Chandler Simpson will lead off and attempt to create chaos on the bases. Yandy Díaz (day-to-day this spring with an undisclosed issue) bats second and remains a scary-enough disciplined contact hitter to make his non-existent defense worth the investment. Infielder Jonathan Aranda is likely to hold down first base and hit solidly in the third slot. Then comes Caminero, and with his 45 home runs and .846 OPS last season, opposing pitchers should be ready.

After that? It gets thin, and conspicuously left-handed. There’s Mullins, Lux, Taylor Walls at short, Jake Fraley in right, and Hunter Feduccia behind the plate. It’s a lineup with a pretty limited floor.

Then, as I said, there’s starting pitching. The Rays are top-heavy, with Drew Rasmussen their clear ace. The righty had an elite 2025 season, going 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 31 starts. After that, well. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched a meaningful inning since August 2023, but he was darn good before that, and presumably is healthy now. Ryan Pepiot was fine last year. The 35-year-old Steven Matz was signed this offseason and will compete for a rotation spot. Same deal, Nick Martinez.

The bullpen figures to include Edwin Uceta (temporarily slowed down with a back injury in spring training), Garrett Cleavinger, old Oriole Bryan Baker, Mason Englert, Jesse Scholtens, Hunter Bigge (status also uncertain), and Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, two starters making a turn to relief pitching this year.

Projections

This is, on paper, a lineup that could work in a bad division. The AL East is not a bad division. So we might well have doubts about the Rays’ chances this year. Here’s what the pundits think:

PECOTA: 81-81 (5th in the AL East)
FanGraphs: 81-81 (same)
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 78.5 Wins, +250 to win the AL East, +3000 to win the AL Pennant, +8000 to win the World Series

The pundits place the Rays at between 78-81 wins, which in this division almost certainly means watching October from home. The Blue Jays project as division favorites, the Yankees will have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón back in the rotation at some point, the Red Sox’s rotation got significantly better thanks to acquiring Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have the talent to make a run.

None of that means the Rays can’t surprise. Manager Kevin Cash has coaxed more out of less before, and this organization has a habit of finding contributors where other teams dare not tread. But in the AL East, the margin for error is essentially zero. So maybe don’t fully count the Rays out. But also, just maybe, don’t pencil them in, either.

When the Rockies signed Thairo Estrada to a one-year deal ahead of the 2025 season, it seemed like the team had an answer — at least in the short-term — at second base in the post-Brendan Rodgers era. 

Injuries derailed that plan as Estrada started and ended the season on the 60-Day IL twice, first with a fractured wrist and then with a sprained hamstring. He also suffered a sprained right thumb for a shorter IL stint. In the end, Estrada played only 39 games and the Rockies second base position was made up of a quilt of players with no clear starter emerging in the season.

Adael Amador started the second-most games at second with 26, Kyle Farmer and Ryan Ritter followed with 28 starts apiece, Orlando Arcia started 13 games, while Tyler Freeman had 12 starts.

With the Rockies signing Willi Castro this offseason, and only three of those six players returning to spring training, second base will look different for Colorado in 2026. And it has to if the Rockies want to improve — Colorado’s second basemen combined to rank No. 29 in on-base percentage (.267) and OPS (.550), No. 28 in batting average (.213) and slugging percentage (.283) and tied for No. 26 in homers (eight) and RBI (53) among the same position in MLB in 2025.

The starter

When the Rockies signed Castro to a two-year, $12.8 million deal in January, he seemed like a great fit for the Rockies because of his utility abilities, as he can play second, third, and shortstop, as well as all three outfield positions, as well as his talent on the basepaths and bat that made him an All-Star with the Twins in 2024.

He’s pulled way ahead as the best candidate for second base in spring training, even if he only has a small sample size with the Rockies. In 11 at-bats in five games, Castro has seven hits, including two doubles, three runs scored, two RBIs, two walks, one stolen base and one strikeout. 

He also has the 2026 World Baseball Classic on his resume and had a standout performance for Puerto Rico. He earned a spot on the highlight reels with a leadoff homer against Italy in the quarterfinals on March 14. It was a cause for celebration as Castro only has 10 homers in seven MLB seasons.

In 15 at-bats in five games in the WBC, Castro recorded four hits, including a double and a homer, with three RBI, four walks, a stolen base and four strikeouts. Even before that homer, the Purple Row community dubbed Castro as the Rockie having the best WBC.

At age 28, Castro could give a boost to the Rockies lineup, offensively and defensively, as he works to show that his down year in 2025 with the Twins (slash line of .222/.404/.389) was an outlier.  

The backups

Ritter, the 25-year-old who finished the 2025 season as the Rockies second baseman, has been playing so well in spring training that he’s making a case to earn a spot on the roster. He can play second, shortstop and third base, and has even played six games in left field this spring. In 42 at-bats over 16 games, Ritter is hitting .357/.413/.524 with three stolen bases, four doubles, one homer, seven RBI and nine runs scored. 

Ritter made his MLB debut on June 6 last season, and started with a bang before being sidelined with a right middle-finger laceration. Despite the injury, Ritter returned and ended up playing 60 games, batting .241/.296/.337 with nine doubles, three triples, one home run, 18 RBI, three stolen bases (in four tries), 10 walks (4.8%) and 61 strikeouts (29.5%). He’s also a great defender with a solid glove and range.

Also vying for a backup spot, Amador has played the most at second base in spring training thus far. His 11 games lead the way with Roc Riggio at nine, Edouard Julien at seven, Castro at five and Jose Torres at one. Even though Amador made his MLB debut in 2024, he is still just 22 years old. In 10 games in 2024 and 41 games last season, Amador has struggled at the plate with a career line of .176/.242/.250 with two homers, 10 RBI and 27 strikeouts in 148 at-bats.

This spring, Amador has hit better, slashing .229/.270/.429 with two homers, five RBIs, six runs, one double, two walks, six strikeouts and two stolen bases with 34 at-bats. Amador’s first homer also happened to be the Rockies’ first of spring training — a solo shot on Feb. 21. 

Depth options

Julien is making a play for first base or second base — or both. The Rockies acquired Julien in a trade with the Twins in late January. Julien, who had a breakout rookie season in 2023 with the Twins when he posted a .263/.381/.459 slash line with 16 home runs. He’s struggled in the two seasons since, but he does provide versatility and a left-handed bat. Julien hasn’t performed well at the plate so far in spring training, where he’s only posted two hits in 15 at-bats with an RBI, two walks, one run scored and five strikeouts.

Freeman is also available to play second base and can also play in the outfield. Arriving just before the 2025 season from Cleveland in a trade for Nolan Jones, Freeman put up the best batting average of Rockies with at least 100 games. He batted .281/.354/.361 with 18 stolen bases, 20 doubles, two homers, two triples, 50 runs and 31 RBIs. While Freeman offered a solid bat, his defense can be a bit of a liability. This spring, Freeman is hitting .316/.435/.421in 19-at bats.

On the farm

There are lots of possibilities for second basemen in the Rockies farm system. 

Riggio (No. 14 PuRP) came to the Rockies from the Yankees in the 2025 trade for Jake Bird. The 23-year-old lefty-hitting, right-handed throwing infielder has a solid presence at the plate with power and a good eye. Riggio has posted two hits, including one homer, in eight at-bats this spring. After coming to Colorado’s organization on July 31, Riggio played the rest of the season in Double-A Hartford, where he’s likely to start 2026.

Also in the pipeline is Torres, a 26-year-old infielder, who was claimed by the Rockies in the 2024 Rule-5 Draft from Cincinnati. He split his time in 2025 between Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque and hit .242/.307/.426 with 15 homers and 17 doubles.

Roldy Brito (No. 11 PuRP) is a promising prospect in the Rockies farm system. He isn’t expected to arrive in the Big Leagues until 2028, but he has a lot of potential.

Closing thoughts

Considering the quality and depth of the second basemen — even if it’s through utilitymen who can play multiple infield and even outfield positions — the Rockies are poised to perform better at second base this year. Whether Castro becomes the Rockies next second baseman or serves as a bridge to the future, hopefully, the Rockies are closer to finding their second baseman of the future.

Can Castro ride his WBC hot streak into the regular season? Will the depth and versatility help the Rockies win more games this season? Will Ritter force the Rockies to slot him in the lineup more often? Let us know what you think.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Last season, the Washington Nationals bullpen was an utter disaster. They posted a 5.59 ERA as a unit, which was comfortably the worst in baseball. However, I do not see that happening again. In fact, I think the Nationals bullpen will surprise people in 2026. There may not be any star names, but I think the unit will be solid.

Don’t get it twisted, I do not expect the Nats to have an elite bullpen, but I do not think it will be among the worst in the league either. Honestly, I would expect the bullpen ERA to look something like the 4.14 mark the Nats posted in 2024. There will be some breakouts, as well as plenty of trial and error.

There is going to be a lot of churn in the Nats bullpen this year. It is part of Paul Toboni’s philosophy. We already got a taste of that with all the waiver claims this offseason. These waiver claims will continue into the season. If guys aren’t producing, they will be demoted or DFA’d, and replaced by pitchers the front office finds more interesting. The mixing and matching will continue until they find the right combination.

That means we are not going to see Colin Poche and Lucas Sims types get over a month of run despite clearly not having the goods. The fact the Nats do not have a ton of relievers on guaranteed big league contracts will also help them be more flexible. A lot of teams like to just churn through relievers, and the Nats are going to be one of those teams.

However, they will have a few guys who they rely on in high leverage spots. One of those pitchers is Clayton Beeter, who Mike DeBartolo picked up in the Amed Rosario trade. Beeter posted a 2.49 ERA in 24 appearances with the Nats last year. This spring, Beeter has bumped up his slider usage, which could help him out. His slider is an elite swing and miss weapon, which he will lean on this year.

I would not be surprised if the Nats have more of a closer by committee set up this season. However, if they were to have a set closer, Beeter would be my pick. While he has control issues, he has the swing and miss stuff to bail himself out. When batters do put the ball in play against him, they do not tend to make great contact either.

Another high leverage reliever for the Nats will be Cole Henry. The right hander had his moments as a rookie, but faded as the season went on. He posted a 4.27 ERA last year, but I think that will be improved upon this year. Henry has bumped up his cutter usage this spring. I like that a lot because it gives him a bridge pitch between his fastball and sweeper. That cutter makes his arsenal much more complete.

Those two were in the Nats bullpen last year, but I would expect them to take strides forward this year. Brad Lord and PJ Poulin are two more arms that should give the Nats more stability in the ‘pen. Beyond those guys, we should see a revolving door of arms. I am sure a couple of those pitchers they give chances to will blossom under this new pitching development program.

The pitchers I have named so far lack experience, but Paul Toboni did bring in a couple of veterans on minor league deals right before Spring Training. Cionel Perez and Drew Smith are both looking to re-establish themselves as bullpen mainstays. They have success on their resume’s, but Perez struggled in 2025 and Smith was injured the whole year. Both have looked sharp this spring.

If one or both of those guys recapture some of the magic they had a few years ago, that would provide a massive boost. It feels like Smith is getting sharper and sharper as he gets more innings under his belt. Perez has also thrown the ball well this spring.

Honestly, most of the Nationals pitchers have looked good this spring. Some of the usage tweaks the new regime has made seem to have positive early returns. It is still Spring Training, but I like what I am seeing.

I am calling my shot! If the Nats bullpen ERA is not at least a run lower than last year, I would be very surprised. A 4.59 bullpen ERA still wouldn’t be good, but after last year, I would take it. Like I said up top, I expect the bullpen ERA to look much closer to the 4.14 mark they posted in 2024. 

There are no massive names in this group, but there do not need to be. We just need less Colin Poche and Jorge Lopez type blow-ups. Based on what we have seen this spring, I expect that will happen. Even last Spring Training, you could see the cracks in the Nats bullpen showing. We have not seen that so far this spring. Instead, we have seen a plethora of arms who can get outs.

You never truly know until you get into the regular season, but I really think the Nats bullpen will be solid. The pitchers performing well will stay and the guys struggling will have a short leash. I expect the bullpen to be a pleasant surprise for Nats fans in 2026.

The World Baseball Classic has matured to the point where, like the World Cup and NCAA tournament, each edition is going to be remembered for a specific storyline.

In 2023, that storyline was the ascension of Shohei Ohtani to the level of Global Sports God. Over those two-and-a-half weeks we saw him definitively swipe the crown of “game’s best player” right off the head of his then-teammate, Mike Trout. We saw him hit a cultural Q-rating that no baseball player had approached in decades. And we reached a tipping point in the baseball GOAT debate wherein a critical mass of fans started saying “yup, it’s him.”

What will the storyline be for the 2026 tournament? Sadly, I think it’ll be last night’s atrocious strike call to end what had been a sublime baseball game.

Just an awful, inexcusable call. I’m sure someone in the comments will come up with something, but I can’t think of a single botched ball/strike call that was as impactful as that in recent baseball memory. The fact that Juan Soto was rung up with a similarly bad call at a similarly big moment earlier in the game only fuels the outrage. I have a feeling this is something we’re going to hear Dominican ballplayers and fans talk about for a long time. It’ll probably even be the main storyline heading into the next tournament.

But if there’s a second storyline this tournament will be remembered for — especially in the free and independent Republic of New England — it’ll be the outstanding play of the Boston Red Sox. We had Jarren Duran balling out for Mexico, Masataka Yoshida thriving in pool play,Wilyer Abreu hitting one of the most electric homers the tournament has ever seen, Brayan Bello carving up Israel, and Greg Weissert closing out one of the most notable upsets in tournament history.

And now we have Roman Anthony and Garrett Whitlock carrying Team USA into the finals.

Anthony — who has seven hits, four walks, two homers, seven RBI and an OPS of 1.014 thus far — hit this monster sockdolager that turned out to be the game winning hit:

Then Garrett Whitlock mowed down the heart of possibly the greatest lineup ever assembled to hold Anthony’s lead in the eighth (though, yes, this included that bad call against Juan Soto).

Team USA now awaits the outcome of tonight’s Venezuela-Italy game, while Anthony-induced giddiness has reached dangerous levels amongst Red Sox fans.

Talk about the WBC and whatever else you feel like and, as always, be good to one another.

In a week full of World Baseball Classic games, Guardians players have been finding success in Goodyear and in Houston.

Naylor’s Big Night

In Friday night’s WBC game between the United States and Canada, Guardians’ catcher Bo Naylor had a big night for his native Canada. Although his team lost and ultimately sent the U.S. to the semifinals, Naylor proved himself to fans all over the world. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Gabe Speier threw a two-out pitch to Naylor with a runner on base. He took that pitch deep into the seats at Daiken Field to cut the United States’ lead to 5-3. While his team wasn’t able to capitalize on that momentum and was ultimately eliminated from the WBC, Naylor made his name known on the biggest stage.

Halpin Helping Big

Cleveland’s 95th draft pick from 2020, Petey Halpin, has been making waves in Spring Training. The young centerfielder has had pretty consistent playing time this March, totalling 25 at bats so far. In that time, he’s hit .320/.433/.640 with eight hits and two home runs. He’s also continuing to show off his speed on the basepaths, claiming five stolen bases so far. He’s played just six Major League games during the regular season so far, but if he can get consistent playing time in 2026, he’ll definitely be a threat on the bases and at the plate.

Gaddis Nearing Return

As the start of the regular season inches closer, so does the return of setup man Hunter Gaddis. Gaddis was shut down early in Spring Training due to right forearm tightness. He received an MRI to assess the damage and found that there was no damage, however, the team had shut him down just to be safe. Since then, he’s been working towards a return with two bullpen sessions this week. While the timing of his return has yet to be fully determined, he’s been making good progress and has “been feeling really good” according to Manager Stephen Vogt.

Social Media Spotlight

This week’s social media spotlight highlights Matt Wilkinson who pitched for the Lake County Captains in 2025. He’s spent the last couple of weeks representing Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic, and he had a huge moment in Friday’s game against the U.S. He struck out the team’s heavy hitters, Cal Raleigh and Bryce Harper. The below video shows just how much spirit the young pitcher has.

Sometimes when we go over numbers things get missed. In this case, there were a few arms that got left out of the conversation and I would be remiss if I didn’t at least address them as camp is coming to a close. Some of the names are names you are familiar with, but they exist on the periphery of the conversation. Our numbers can help explain why that is.

There is one that came up late last season and actually looked pretty good. A third name is from one of the many non-roster invitees that has had major league time. As we do with most of the arms, we look at both major and minor league numbers when it suits us. There is a general rule in data analysis and that general rule is that we go with more data whenever possible. Nothing kills analysis quite like small sample sizes. All three of these arms have spent more time in the minors than at the big league level. As usual, before we get started let me remind everyone about our norms for the numbers we are using.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
• LOB%: It is pretty self-explanatory. It is the number of runners that get stranded on base. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. Of course, there is some debate as to whether pitchers control that or not.

J.P. France

It should be noted that 2023 and 2024 came at the big league level where 2025 came at AAA. That can help explain the dip in contact and hard hit rate. Otherwise, France is pretty average and maybe even below average when it comes to contact rates. 2023 was a magical year for him when everything came together. He had a higher than normal left on base percentage and lower than normal BABIP.

I suppose that luck could return in limited exposure. If you pitch him exclusively in the pen and don’t let the order turn around on him then you could coax above average results out of him. In all likelihood, he will be penciled into Sugar Land’s rotation and provide decent quality depth when and if some of the ML starters go to the injury list.

Jayden Murray

Let’s start with the good news. Murray is better than the AAA numbers he put up in 2023 and 2025. He pitched only three innings in 2024, so we did not include those numbers here. Ultimately, he has the look of an average AAA pitcher. Like most average pitchers, he is capable of short bursts of solid production and that happened late in the season in Houston. He had 11.2 innings and pitched to a 1.54 ERA. That came with a .3.78 xERA and 4.52 xFIP.

Those numbers are obviously much more in line with who he is. He is like most middle relievers pitching in the big leagues. There are going to be years when the ball bounces their way and they put up very good numbers. There are going to be years where it doesn’t. The Astros’ strategy seems to be to collect as many of those guys as possible with the hope of finding three or four guys (to go along with their two or three high leveraged relievers) to cobble together a solid pen.

Christian Roa

This is one of those calculated gambles that teams sometimes take. Roa seemed to find something last season. His chase rate went up and contact rates went down. His left on base percentage, BABI, and home run rate also improved dramatically. It could be fool’s gold and that is the risk. However, consider that Roa was brought in on a minor league contract. What’s the worst that can happen?

He has a 1.29 ERA in seven innings with seven strikeouts. So, maybe what he found last season has stuck with him. If we look at just the 2025 numbers we see that he is around the league average in contact rate, home run rate, and reasonably close in chase rate. He is just another guy that could potentially work out with good batted ball luck. The Astros have at least a half dozen of those guys and the expectation is that their pitching lab along with good batted ball luck could coax good performances out of half of them. Will Roa be one of those guys?

The San Diego Padres could not get much going against Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt in their game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale, Ariz. on Sunday. San Diego was unable to record a hit against the right-hander through five innings, but in the eighth and ninth innings, facing relievers, the Padres scored four runs and pulled even with the Diamondbacks and the game ended in a 4-4 tie.

Randy Vazquez started the game for San Diego, and he too had success controlling the Arizona lineup through his first three innings and he entered the bottom of the fourth with the game tied 0-0. Vasquez ran into trouble in the fourth when he hit the first batter, allowed a single to center field which was misplayed by Samad Taylor and resulted in a one-run lead for the Diamondbacks. Vasquez then allowed a single, a triple and a single and Arizona had a 4-0 lead in the fourth before an out was recorded. He did get a lineout following the consecutive hits and was replaced on the mound by Johan Moreno. A forceout on a ground ball and a runner caught stealing by Freddy Fermin ended the inning.

Vasquez returned for the fifth and put all three batters down in order. The rest of the Padres pitching staff shutout the Diamondbacks over the final five innings and San Diego rallied in the eighth for three runs to make the score 4-3 before tying the game in the ninth with a run.

Padres News:

• Nick Castellanos started his career on the dirt as a third baseman. He then spent several years on the grass as a right fielder. Since joining the Padres, he has said he will play anywhere the team needs him. That need may be at first base and Castellanos seems to be handling the transition as well as expected and could play a significant role for San Diego in 2026.
• There has been and still is an ongoing battle for the fifth spot in the San Diego rotation, but that may be decided after Spring Training once Griffin Canning is able to return to game-action. The free-agent pitcher is recovering from an Achilles injury and is expected to return early in the 2026 season. The addition of Canning and possibly reliever Jason Adam who is recovering from his quadriceps tendon injury could be a boost for Padres pitchers.

Baseball News:

• New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor made his return to Spring Training after Hamade surgery and had a successful day with plenty to build on with Opening Day just around the corner.
• New York Yankees pitcher Luis Gil is looking to improve as an MLB pitcher and part of that for him is reaching the “next level of electricity” with his fastball.

WBC News:

• Mike Trout and then Los Angeles Angels teammate Shohei Ohtani provided one of the most memorable WBC moments in tournament history when the USA slugger faced the Japanese pitcher in the final at-bat of the 2023 World Baseball Classic final. Trout is not participating in the 2026 tournament, but like most baseball fans, is still watching and is happy to see the success of the global event.
• Venezuela and Italy will face off today at 5 p.m. to determine who gets the opportunity to compete for the WBC title against the US, which defeated the Dominican Republic 2-1 in their semi-final on Sunday. Mason Miller closed out the game and earned the WBC save.

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland checks out what we’ve recently learned from camp as the Texas Rangers enter their final week in Arizona.

Evan Grant writes that Skip Schumaker has named Nathan Eovaldi as the Opening Day starter for Texas for their upcoming season opener in Philadelphia.

Kennedi Landry writes that 2023 World Series hero Eovaldi will be making his sixth career Opening Day start and will become the first starter to make three Opening Day starts in a row for Texas since Kevin Millwood started four consecutive openers a couple of decades ago.

Grant has a few observations from camp from yesterday where Marc Church made his spring debut and the bullpen battles continued.

Jeff Wilson writes that prospect Cam Cauley put himself on a trajectory to eventually contribute to the big league team with a head-turning spring.

Grant notes that despite his impressive spring, Cauley was among the players who were cut from big league camp yesterday.

In her weekly newsletter, Landry writes about how the late-spring signing of Jalen Beeks could impact how the Rangers construct their pitching staff.

Grant writes that the Rangers were needing to see something quickly from Andrew McCutchen, and the veteran former MVP has already delivered in his short time in Surprise.

As a standout for the Rangers this spring, Jim Bowden writes that Evan Carter could be due for a breakout year for Texas.

Landry tabs Rule 5 reliever Carter Baumler as a young player who has made a big impression for the Rangers so far this spring.

And, McFarland names 2025 prized international signee Elorky Rodriguez as the Rangers’ No. 9 prospect on the DMN’s top 30 list.

Have a nice day!