Worldwide Sports News

Sheng-En Lin claimed the #19 spot in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, doing so after finally getting shifted to a pitch-only player after having previously been considered a two-way prospect. The results were quite good on the mound as he reached Class-A Daytona, and the hope now is that as he focuses solely on the mound that he’ll continue to improve and refine his already talented approach.

Now, we take the voting into the final spot, with #20 next up on the list!

Per usual, you can find the link to the Google Form for voting right here, yet it’s also embedded at the bottom if you want to read through first and not have to embark upon the painstaking process of scrolling all the way back up here. Both link and embed will be removed once voting closes so you can’t stuff the ballot post facto, however, so be advised that this paragraph will make zero sense if you stumble back across it a year from now.

Here’s how the list has materialized so far:

1. Sal Stewart
2. Alfredo Duno
3. Rhett Lowder
4. Hector Rodriguez
5. Edwin Arroyo
6. Cam Collier
7. Steele Hall
8. Tyson Lewis
9. Chase Petty
10. Arnaldo Lantigua
11. Jose Franco
12. Zach Maxwell
13. Leo Balcazar
14. Adolfo Sanchez
15. Carlos Jorge
16. Aaron Watson
17. Julian Aguiar
18. Tyler Callihan
19. Sheng-En Lin

A large list of talented names exists below for spot #20. Have at it with the votes!

Liberts Aponte, SS (18 years old)

2025 at a glance: .247/.368/.461 with 7 HR, 9 SB in 193 PA for DSL Rojos (Dominican Summer League)

Pros: 29/35 K/BB showed greatly improving strike zone awareness; already a plus defender at short where he projects to be excellent both with range and arm long-term

Cons: Still not viewed as a potential plus with the bat, though early returns are already better than original scouting reports; has a long way to go in terms of physically maturing

The Reds doled out $1.9 million to sign Aponte last January, and that marked the single largest contract they doled out in that particular international signing window. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the #18 player overall in that class, noting he was ‘one of the most skilled defenders in his class’ and ‘offers solid wheels’ with ‘magic in his hands’ while doling out a 65 grade on his fielding ability.

The rest, we knew, would take time, as he was just liked at 6’0” and 160 lbs, and that even felt like a slight exaggeration. To his credit, though, he mashed 7 homers as a 17 year old in DSL play while showing more power than anticipated, and if that aspect of his game grows to match what’s already known the Reds have found themselves a gem.

It will be interesting to see if the Reds push him up to Arizona Complex League play at all in 2026 or give him another year in the DSL seeing as he just turned 18 years old in November.

Luke Holman, RHP (23 years old)

2025 at a glance: ER, 2 H, 10 K, 4 BB in 9.0 IP with Daytona Tortugas (Class-A Florida State League

Pros: Two plus breaking pitches (slider, curve)

Cons: Not a ton of velocity on his fastball, which sits 91-94 mph

Luke Holman threw 109 pitches for LSU in a 6-2 loss to North Carolina on June 1st, 2024, a game in which he yielded 4 ER in 6.2 IP with 7 H, 11 K, and a lone walk. Since then, he’s thrown just 9.0 IP on a mound, total.

Holman, Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2024, sat out the remainder of 2024 after being drafted, finishing his calendar year with 91.2 IP of 2.75 ERA ball that included a wonderful 0.98 WHIP and 127/33 K/BB. When his 2025 began in Daytona, all signs looked promising in his first pair of starts only for an elbow issue to subsequently sit him down and require Tommy John surgery, and we’ve not seen him since.

He sat 91-94 with his fastball (and touched 96) before, and has a pair of wicked breaking balls that he uses as his out pitches. If he returns to form in 2026 the way he ways before (or even better!), he still profiles as a back-end starter who should move quickly through Cincinnati’s system after dominating SEC play in stints first with Alabama and later with LSU.

Mason Morris, RHP (22 years old)

2025 at a glance: 9.00 ERA, 7/1 K/BB in 4.0 IP with Class-A Daytona Tortugas; 3.29 ERA, 78/31 K/BB in 54.2 IP with University of Mississippi

Pros: Fastball that can touch 100 mph; four-pitch mix

Cons: Lack of experience

Mason Morris landed with Ole Miss in 2023 primarily as a corner infielder, and the now 6’4” 225 lb righty only recently became a full-time pitcher prior to the Reds selecting him with their 3rd round pick in 2025. He’s got projection through the roof, though, with a 100 mph heater, plus cutter, and a pair of other breaking balls that look like they’ve also got the juice.

The question, though, is how Cincinnati plans to use him.

Morris only got a pair of outings as a pro after being drafted, and it appears the Reds have intentions on seeing if he can develop into a starting pitcher. That’s something he’s never really done before, however, and he’ll turn 23 years old in August of 2026. So, we’ll see how long of a leash the Reds give him with that avenue, since if they want to simply keep him in the bullpen there’s very little reason why he shouldn’t rocket through the minors and give them a legit relief arm at the big league level in short order.

Mason Neville, OF (22 years old)

2025 at a glance: .247/.333/.442 with 1 HR, 2 SB in 90 PA with Class-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League); .290/.429/.724 with 26 HR, 9 SB in 280 PA with University of Oregon

Pros: 60-grade power with potential plus arm and plus speed & baserunning; chance to stick in CF, though still profiles as a solid RF if moved to the corner; led Division I with 26 HR in final season at Oregon

Cons: Lots of swing and miss in his game, at times, including a 34.4% rate in his short sample with Daytona

The Reds clearly love Neville, as they drafted him in the 18th round out of high school 2022 only to watch him initially attend the University of Arkansas. After transferring to Oregon and swatting more dingers than anyone else in 2025, the Reds went back to him in the 4th round of the most recent draft.

Neville is incredibly toolsy, his left-handed swing producing significant power when he makes contact. He’s good at working walks despite his swing-and-miss proclivities, and posesses the kind of athleticism and speed to be a legitimate CF.

His tiny sample with Daytona has some red flags with the Ks, but it’s such a small sample that it’s hard to take it with too much certainty. For instance, he hit .298/.365/.526 through his first 17 games there only to go 2 for 20 with 9 Ks across his final 6 games – that could, and likely is, all small-sample noise.

Big tools, that Neville. He could well be the steal of the 2025 draft.

Ricky Cabrera, 3B (21 years old)

2025 at a glance: .187/.276/.240 with 0 HR, 0 SB in 89 PA with High-A Dayton Dragons (Midwest League)

Pros: Above-average power, speed, and hit tool, with an arm that’s good enough to play at 3B (if he can find his accuracy)

Cons: An absolutely lost 2025 season that included a season-ending knee injury

The optimist in you sees that Cabrera only just turned 21 years old in October, and in 2024 posted a 110 wRC+ with 11 HR and 19 SB in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Florida State League with Daytona (with said wRC+, along with his OPS, both ranking among that league’s top 10). That same optimist probably would point out that 2025 saw the Venezuela native play in the cold April weather of the Midwest League with Dayton for the first time, and he struggled mightily in those new conditions before a knee injury rendered his 2025 completely lost.

There’s still a lot to like about Cabrera, even though he’s physically matured off shortstop at this juncture and likely profiles as a 3B, or potentially at 2B defensively – with his defense needing just as much improvement as his bat at the moment, too. If the batting cage stuff can begin to translate onto the field again post-injury, there’s still a ton to like about the former $2.7 million signee and Top 5 overall international prospect from the 2022 class.

I’m assuming there is no pessimist in you, for now.

Hansel Jimenez, SS/3B (19 years old)

2025 at a glance: .269/.374/.445 with 5 HR, 12 SB in 147 PA for DSL Reds (Dominican Summer League); .229/.345/.364 with 4 HR, 3 SB in 142 PA for Sydney Blue Sox (Australian Baseball League)

Pros: 70 grade raw power (per FanGraphs) with potential to be a plus runner, fielder, and have a plus arm

Cons: Potential swing and miss issues (25.9% K-rate in the DSL, 64% contact rate); may end up at 3B long term

Signed for an undisclosed amount during the 2024 international signing period, Jimenez has immediately hit the ground running in prospect circles with his mix of potentially elite athleticism and batted-ball metrics that jump right off the page.

After dabbling in DSL play in 2024 at age 17 (6 for 14 with a double and 4 steals in 5 G), he repeated that level in 2025 and more than held his own with an .820 OPS. Those solid surface stats hide his pretty monumental 45% hard-hit rate, 106 mph EV90, and maximum exit velocity of 113 mph – all numbers posted by an 18 year old. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has him ranked 12th (right behind Tyson Lewis) and notes the multiple similarities between the two, though Jimenez is a full year younger.

We’re pretty partial to FanGraphs here at Bless You Boys. They combine outstanding writing with all the statistics you could want to understand baseball and baseball players, and their subscription cost is extremly reasonable and has remained low for years now. They also have Eric Longenhagen, probably the most thorough analyst on the national prospect scene.

So, the drop of their spring top 100 prospects list is always a notable occasion. It doesn’t hurt that the Tigers’ farm system is pretty great at this point, either. What’s particularly nice, is that you can go over and read their extensive reports on each top 100 player without a paywall, though you will then be subject to the ad-based version of the sight, as you deserve!

Seriously, FanGraphs deserves subscribers.

But I digress…the Tigers have five prospects on FanGraphs new list of 50 FV or better top prospects in the game. They go 110 players deep this year rather than the arbitrary 100 player cutoff found eldwhere.

You won’t be surprised to find Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Bryce Rainer, and Josue Briceño all made the list, but unlike a lot of other sites, FanGraphs still has Thayron Liranzo as a 50 FV prospect. Most of the national sites and a lot of local prospect coverage dumped Liranzo all the way down to the 45 and even 40+ tiers after a tough season in which he made the leap to Double-A full-time at age 21 and struck out 31.7 percent of the time, while looking very run down in the summer months and not playing that much behind the pate.

Personally, I kept Liranzo at 45+, just outside of top 100 level, knowing that he’d had some personal issues, and that a switch-hitting, 21-year-old catcher has an enormous workload and level of responsiblity compared to anyone else on the roster. Not only do they have their work behind the plate and plenty of extra drilling on framing, blocking, and throwing, but he’s also learning to hit upper level pitching from both sides of the plate rather than just one. That’s a lot for a player who was still younger than most of the 2025 draft class.

Evan Woodbery of MLive had a great article over the weekend detailing the difficulties of that season. That is paywalled, but the short version is that Liranzo’s long-time trainer, who was like a second father to him, died unexpectedly during the season, and fatigue really started crushing him in the second half of the season as the swing and miss piled up.

Here’s a key quote from Scott Harris in Woodbery’s article, which can be found right here.

In the middle of the season, Liranzo’s longtime trainer, whom he considered a father figure, passed away. He dealt with family problems back home in the Dominican Republic. A shoulder injury limited him to designated hitter duty at times.

“All these things were affecting me, and I didn’t really know how to handle it,” he said. “It was my first time going through something like that, and I wasn’t having a good year on the field either. Everything kind of piled up on me, and I felt like I lost my head a little bit.”

The Tigers pushed him to get leaner over the offseason, and Liranzo got his diet sorted out and went all out on the strength and conditioning program laid out for him heading into the offseason. He lost a ton of weight, showing up to camp looking much leaner and stronger, it’s glaringly obvious in pictures from camp, and put plenty of work into refining his defensive game.

This is still a catcher who switch-hits and has double plus power hitting left-handed and a good eye from the strike zone. His power is closer to plus hitting right-handed. Reaching Double-A at age 21 is already a minor accomplishment, but particularly impressive with all the added demands on a catcher. This is still the guy who mauled Arizona Fall League pitching back in October of 2024, and he’s still four years younger than Dillon Dingler was when he finally estabished himself as an everyday big league catcher last year. The jump to the upper levels is no joke.

There is still plenty of swing and miss in the zone, and Liranzo does need to clean up some wasted motion in his swing mechanics to simplify his hand path. He’s probably always going to strike out quite a bit, but as a catcher and first baseman who walks and has 40 home run power, the risk in his hit tool is counterbalanced pretty nicely by his enormous potential. So, a high risk, high reward prospect, still 22 years old. He’s not McGonigle or Clark, but that’s a lot of young player as the fifth ranked prospect in the system. With luck, the Tigers will essentially get something like a switch-hitting Alex Avila who is better as a second catcher on a squad rather than the everyday guy.

McGonigle, interestingly, checks in as FanGraphs 5th ranked prospect after landing in the second spot on most other rankings. Clark is 7th, with both of them getting 60 FV grades. Shorstop Bryce Rainer is 23rd as a 55 FV prospect. Briceño comes it at 63rd with a 50 FV grade, while a pretty deep group of prospects in that 50 FV tier leaves Liranzo 105th out of 110 prospects graded 50 FV or higher.

You find FanGraphs rankings and full reports on all 110 players here.

Previous Winner

Jose Urbina, RHP
20 | 6’3” | 180
A | 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 92.1 IP (19 GS), 26.4% K, 8.2% BB
A+ | 2 ER (2 HR), 4.0 IP (1 GS), 5 K, 0 BB

Good pitchers grow and adjust, and Urbina has done that consistently at an age young for his level. Physically he has grown in strength, sitting at 96 with the fastball after flashing high octane in 2024, and technically he has grown, refining his dialed up slider and his two-plane curveball into complementary pitches — which lack plus command but are thrown with feel. He shouldered a starter’s workload at 19, and was awarded one additional start at High-A, where he allowed two solo shots and struck out five. Overall, the age, body, and body of work have him on the trajectory of top prospect lists in the near future.

The push for Tre Morgan gained a seventh vote, but it was 2025’s Top Dog Urbina who made the leap this round. Will the similarly rated Baumeister be next, or will Morgan’s crew rally the support in the next round? This next round adds recent international signee Victor Valdez.

Elsewhere, FanGraphs dropped their Top-100 with Williams 28th, Hopkins 59th, and Forret 92nd (!).

Candidates

Jackson Baumeister, RHP
23 | 6’4” | 224
AA | 4.62 ERA, 4.15 FIP (15 GS) 62.1 IP, 19.5% K, 9.6% BB
AFL | 6 ER (1 HR), 9.0 IP (4 G, 3 GS), 10 K, 9 BB

A shoulder injury derailed what should have been Baumeister’s coming out party, as his previously plus breaking ball was expected to carve up Double-A. After a tough start to the year and two months on the sidelines, Baumeister returned in August and salvaged the season with a brilliant finish. The tough luck continued, however, in the Arizona Fall League, where a line drive struck him in the head, but he escaped without significant injury. Currently, Baumeister has taken on a fastball/slutter profile, with a slow curve in his back pocket, and has shown teachability and pitchability over the years. The former Seminole currently thrives on his frequently used major league fastball that may be better challenged by a promotion to Triple-A.

Homer Bush Jr.
24 | R/R | 6’3” | 215
AA | .301/.375/.360 (122 wRC+) 546 PA, 0 HR, 57 SB, 8.8% BB, 17.9% K

Acquired in the 2024 Jason Adam trade, the starting center fielder at Double-A passed the test of advanced pitching, but just barely. He lacks in-game power due to a lack of use of his lower half in his swing, and he whiffed more often than you can for long term success with a low-power approach. His calling cards are Rays-grade defense and plus-speed, having notably swiped 57 bags in back-to-back seasons.

Cooper Flemming, SS
19 | L/R | 6’3” | 190

One of the best high school bats in the 2025 draft, Flemming surprisingly fell into the Rays laps in the second round. He has a too-quiet swing that lacks the load necessary to hit for power, but he’s historically compensated for that with a high contact rate that would have rated him as first round material if his defense projected to stick. The Rays were able to convince him to forgo an education at Vanderbilt by going above slot ($2.3m, Comp-A money).

Brailer Guerrero, OF
20 | L/R | 6’1” | 215
A | 249.338/.399 (119 wRC+) 222 PA, 6 HR, 9 SB, 11.3% BB, 29.3% K
AFL | 2 H, 0 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB, 16 K, 29 PA

Good news: the $3.7 million 2023 signee made the leap out of the complex league in his final teenage season. Bad News: He was injured yet again, with hamstring and knee injuries limiting him to 51 games for Charleston. The Rays tried to make up for lost time with an aggressive assignment to the AFL that resulted in only two hits in 29 plate appearances. He makes loud contact from a quick, quiet swing which he pre-loads by reaching back for even more power. He appears to make early decisions to swing, leading to a bit extra whiffs against anything off-speed, but that could easily clear up with some consistent playing time.

OF Victor Mesa Jr.
24 | L/L | 5’11” | 195
AAA (MIA) | .301/.368/.510 (136 wRC+) 171 PA, 7 HR, 4 SB, 9.9% BB, 16.4% K
MLB (MIA) | 6 H (1 HR), 5 BB, 5 K (81 wRC+) 38 PA

This Cuban power bat already made his major league debut with Miami last year after bouncing back from a spring hamstring injury, and was dealt to the Rays in February. He profiles as a fourth outfielder but has an option remaining, so the organization may send him down for regular playing time and one last chance for something more in development. If not, he’s a center field capable on defense, which goes a long way for a platoon bat. In the running for the nicest guy in baseball.

Tre’ Morgan, 1B/LF
23 | L/L | 6’0” | 215
AAA | .274/.398/.412 (119 wRC+) 402 PA, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.9% BB, 19.2% K

Morgan continued to hit without power in 2025, a great discouragement for some evaluators, but his present 50-grade hit tool and feel for the zone allow a major league projection. He continued his improved, quieter two-strike approach in 2025 that built on his success retooling his swing in the AFL last year. The Rays gave Morgan 14 starts in Left Field last season, and Baseball America called the defense “playable,” but his value is tied to his plus-plus defense at First.

Austin Overn, OF
23 | L/R | 6’0” | 175
A+ (BAL) | .242/.367/.386 (127 wRC+) 341 PA, 8 HR, 43 SB, 15.5% BB, 28.2% K
AA (BAL) | .266/.326/.427 (112 wRC+) 136 PA, 5 HR, 21 SB, 6.6% BB, 25.0% K

Acquired in the Shane Baz trade, Overn was once a top draft prospect after committing to baseball over football at USC, but surprisingly struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore. That didn’t stop Baltimore from taking him in the third round (97th overall) in 2024. Now a professional, Overn overhauled his swing in the first half of 2025, and earned an early promotion to Double-A for his efforts, where he didn’t look overmatched. His biggest threat is his speed, which raises his floor and gives him an easy projection to a major league bench thanks to plus defensive instincts (BA gave 70’s to his run and field tools). His offensive profile is buoyed by his ability to work the count, but evaluators would like to see him punish fastballs more often for him to be considered a regular.

Aidan Smith, OF
21 | R/R | 6’2” | 190
A+ | .237/.331/.388 (114 wRC+) 459 PA, 14 HR, 41 SB, 11.5% BB, 31.2% K

Acquired in the Arozarena trade, Smith became the prince who was promised, a five tool athlete with a strong bat, good face, and a preternatural glove in center field. That promise unraveled a bit in 2025, with his strikeout rate rocketing nine percent and his power stroke faltering after facing harder velocities in High-A, causing both his hit and power grades to drop into the 40’s. It was a full transformation into a “center field” profile, but with his ceiling that’s not a compliment. He plays with a fire, but the dip in contact rate left some evaluators feeling burned.

Brayden Taylor, 2B/3B
24 | L/R | 6’0” | 180
AA | .173/.289/.286 (77 wRC+) 437 PA, 8 HR, 17 SB, 14% BB, 27.7% K
AFL | .264/.400/.472 (.384 wOBA) 65 PA, 1 HR, 5 SB, 12 BB, 19 K

Taylor entered 2025 as a top-100 prospect after demolishing High-A (154 wRC+), and left 2025 as an afterthought on prospect lists, although he was selected as an Arizona Fall League “Fall Star” in between, where he worked to keep his chase rate low and his hard hit rate high. The juice must have been worth the squeeze, as the Rays have elected to invite Taylor to major league Spring Training this year.

Victor Valdez, SS
17 | R/R | 6’1” | 186

A pretty swing with a low whiff rate earned Valdez a big payday this winter — $3.5 million — with as good of a power projection as you can reasonably ask for from a a teenage bat, having been given a 25+ home run projection by Baseball America, who also praise his plus foot speed, bat speed, and control of the zone. Reports say he has ever improving lateral movements on defense, with smooth actions and a strong arm. If it all clicks, it’s a middle-of-the-order bat on the left side of the infield. Rays internally gave him a comp to Francisco Lindor. It will be interesting to see if his first professional season can solidify his five tool profile.

With a new snippet of information, it’s time to examine what we might be able to infer about the Guardians’ outfield plans for 2026.

This weekend, Paul Hoynes of Cleveland dot com shared a quote from Guardians’ manager Stephen Vogt in which Vogt clarifies that David Fry is working exclusively as a catcher right now and will begin working at first base later in the spring, but that it wouldn’t be fair to expect him to play third base or right field, yet. Perhaps Fry works on getting back into playing shape for those positions during the season, but Vogt gave no indication whether or not this was the plan.

I had been assuming that part of David Fry’s presence on the roster was a return of his ability to play right field, so this is causing me to re-evaluate some roster projections. I don’t think there is really any chance the team will use one of Fry’s remaining options to send him to Columbus – he’s making the roster one way or another, if healthy. So, what does this mean for the remaining open spots?

The Established Spots:
Catcher: Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges.
First Base: Kyle Manzardo
Second Base: Gabriel Arias or Brayan Rocchio
Shortstop: Brayan Rocchio or Gabriel Arias
Third Base: Jose Ramirez
Left Field: Steven Kwan
Designated Hitter, First Base and Third Catcher: David Fry

First, please stop imagining the team will play Kwan in center. They will not. We don’t have to understand it. We just have to accept it. Second, join me in accepting that barring an act of God, we will see Rocchio and Arias up the middle to start the season. I’m optimistic that either Juan Brito or Travis Bazzana or both will see time at second base this season, but, barring injury, it won’t be until May at the earliest. Accept it, get mad, grieve it, move on.

There are five roster spots remaining, then. One spot WILL go to a utility infielder who can play shortstop. That player is Daniel Schneemann, as Angel Martinez and Juan Brito are NOT shortstops. A breakout camp for Carter Kieboom could make him an option here, but that’s unlikely for a variety of reasons. Expect it to be Schneemann, who does bring some value here in that he can also play competently in any outfield position.

So, that means there are four roster spots remaining, including two empty spots at center field and right field currently. Let’s look at our primary candidates:

Left-Handers: Nolan Jones, Chase DeLauter, George Valera, CJ Kayfus, Petey Halpin, and Khalil Watson.
Right-Handers: Stuart Fairchild and Johnathan Rodriguez.
Switch-Hitters: Angel Martinez and potentially Juan Brito.

I think all indications are that Chase DeLauter will break camp with the team, if healthy. The big question is whether it will be as a center fielder or a right fielder. If the team is truly fine with the idea of playing DeLauter in center field, than I (perhaps delusionally) expect them to DFA Nolan Jones and pass him through waivers to get an extra “option” on him and stash him in Columbus in case of injury. Far more likely, however, is that the team plans for Jones as the primary centerfielder and DeLauter as the primary right fielder. So, let’s pencil that in: Jones for center field, DeLauter for right.

The team will have a right-handed bat on the bench who can play center field. It will either be Fairchild or Martinez. Given that Martinez has remaining options, I expect that Fairchild gets first crack at sticking on the roster since he is the only outfielder the team has added (thus far) this offseason. Now, the team DID add Jones late in spring training last season; maybe they have a plan to do something similar to add a right-handed hitting outfielder this spring training. I am open to the idea, Antonetti. Make it happen, cap’n. But, for now, Fairchild secures that fourth outfielder spot.

We are now at the most interesting battle of the spring, in my opinion. Assuming that Halpin and Watson continue to get seasoning in Columbus given their ages and option situations, we will have Kayfus, Rodriguez, Martinez and Brito competing for that 13th roster spot. I am curious how much we will see Brito in right field in Spring Training, given Fry cannot play there. Brito has hit left-handed pitching extremely well in the minors and I found him to look passable in right field (he has a decent arm). Currently, I think that choice would be the best option for a roster above that lacks punch against left-handed pitching. Brito also looks competent at first base, and can clearly play second base in a pinch. If Brito isn’t ready for that fielding work yet, I wonder if Martinez will get first crack given his lefty mashing so far.

It is undeniably a struggle to leave either Kayfus or Valera off this roster, let alone both. To be clear, if the team is willing to play DeLauter in center, then both Kayfus AND Valera can make the roster. Kayfus looked passable in right field, and Valera and he could get time there and at DH (with Kayfus also perhaps being a late-inning-replacement-with-a-lead at first base). However, there’s no doubt that this thirteenth roster spot SHOULD be a right-handed bat if possible, given the construction of the rest of the roster.

It’s also a possibility that the team deludes themselves into thinking Johnathan Rodriguez can play right field. I refuse to accept that will happen for the sake of my mental health. Rodriguez, then, is just David Fry insurance. He can bat at DH if Fry is hurt or ineffective. Until then, he hangs out with the Clippers.

So, my current projection for Guardians hitters on Opening Day (given health):
C: Naylor and Hedges
1B: Manzardo and Fry
MIF: Rocchio, Arias, and Schneemann
3B: Jose
LF: Kwan
CF: Jones and Fairchild
RF: DeLauter and Martinez (or HOPEFULLY Brito)

But, what I WANT the Guardians to do is this:
C: Naylor and Hedges
1B: Manzardo and Fry
2B: Bazzana (rip the band-aid off and let him do his thing!)
SS: Rocchio
UIF: Schneemann
3B: Jose
LF: Kwan
CF: DeLauter and Fairchild
RF: Valera and Brito

Let us know your predictions and ponderings in the comments below!

Full Spring Training is officially underway with all pitchers, catchers, and position players in Fort Myers to get the Twins season started. This team, as always, is full of potential and hope for a strong 2026, but there remain a few distinct roles to be filled. Let’s break down the projected Opening Day roster at the start of Spring Training.

(Note: anyone in italics is a non-roster invitee that would need to be added to the 40-man roster before Opening Day)

Starting Pitchers

• Locks (4): Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
• In contention (4): Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel
• Out (9): Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Marco Raya, John Klein, Cory Lewis, Trent Baker, Christian MacLeod

The top 3 in the rotation are as locked as possible. SWR probably should be a “near lock” but I think it’s his spot to lose with so many questions behind him. The splitter he added in the second half last year was quietly his best pitch and could help him take things up a level.

The final rotation spot will come down largely to health. Festa and Zebby have flashed frontline ability over the past two seasons, but both have durability questions and Festa missed the end of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He’ll be built up as a starter, but I think is bullpen bound due to health concerns. Zebby and Abel have the best stuff, but have been hit very hard in their limited MLB time. As such, Bradley probably has a leg up here. 

Zebby, Abel, and Morris are likely the next men up for the rotation. Top pitching prospect Prielipp will see MLB time too, but likely out of them ‘pen after already having two UCL reconstructions in his young career. 

Relief Pitchers

• Locks (6): Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Cole Sands, Anthony Banda, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze
• In contention (13): Travis Adams, Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Marco Raya, David Festa, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Chafin, Julian Merryweather, Matt Bowman, Dan Altavilla, Cody Laweryson, Grant Hartwig, Andrew Bash, Raul Brito
• Out (1): Matt Canterino (IL) 

Almost no one is out of contention here because there are two WIDE open bullpen slots for whoever can take them. Left-handers Prielipp and Rojas’ chance of making the team straight out of camp took a hit with the additions of Rogers, Banda, and Chafin over the past few weeks. Combined with Funderburk, they need righty arms more than anything.

The only reason Hendriks isn’t a lock is because of his health. He only threw 14 innings last season with the Red Sox after barely pitching in 2023-2024 due to a cancer scare and Tommy John surgery, but flashed his strong breaking balls as usual. If he’s healthy, he will likely close games for the Twins. 

Your other choices for the final bullpen spot come down to pitchers who have good stuff with bad results (Festa, Merryweather, Brito) or bad stuff with better results (Chafin, Bowman, Altavilla, Laweryson, Hartwig). Given the lack of raw stuff in the bullpen as it stands, I think they take a gamble on the first group.

Catchers

• Locks (2): Ryan Jeffers, Victor Caratini
• In contention: none
• Out (6): Alex Jackson, David Bañuelos, Ricardo Olivar, Noah Cardenas, Patrick Winkel, Andrew Cossetti

Put it in pen. Even if there’s an injury, just sub in Jackson for whoever is out to start the season. This is the easiest group to project by far.

Infielders

• Locks (5): Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Kody Clemens
• In contention (4): Ryan Kreidler, Austin Martin, Tristan Gray, Orlando Arcia
• Out (5): Eric Wagaman, Aaron Sabato, Gio Urshela, Tanner Schobel, Kalen Culpepper

Wagaman doesn’t have a role in the infield, maybe in the outfield. Same could be said for Martin, but I wonder if Shelton gives him one last try at second base with their needs here. Clemens can’t play shortstop, unfortunately, but he should get plenty of time at 2B and 3B throughout the season.

The only real question here is who can provide any semblance of life as a utility man behind Brooks Lee. Ryan Kreidler, Tristan Gray, and Orlando Arcia will battle for the honor throughout Spring Training, but don’t be surprised if the Twins make an outside addition still. 

Outfielders

• Locks (3): Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach (for now)
• Near locks (3): Alan Roden, Austin Martin, James Outman
• In contention (2): Eric Wagaman, Kyler Fedko
• Out (5): Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Hendry Mendez, Walker Jenkins, Kala’i Rosario

I expect to see plenty of Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez with the Twins this year, but they all need some more seasoning in AAA first. Fedko had a breakout 2025 in St. Paul, but sits behind Wagaman as a right-handed platoon partner for OF/1B. 

Larnach is a lock for now because I still think he’ll get dealt to an outfield-needy contender before Opening Day. If he’s with the Twins, he’s obviously a lock. Roden’s fate is tied to Larnach’s as another lefty corner outfielder. In any other scenario he would be the Opening Day left fielder, but that is now Larnach’s spot with the acquisitions of Josh Bell and Victor Caratini taking up most of the 1B/DH reps.

Martin finished 2025 as one of the Twins’ most consistent position players. There’s no place for him to start, but he will start in an outfield corner against every lefty and plenty of righties as players need days off. Outman likely is a lock as well as the only other player who can play a good CF behind Buxton. Both of them could be pushed out due to roster needs elsewhere, though Outman is out of minor league options.

Final Roster Projection 1.0

Bold = camp battles

SP (5): Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Taj Bradley

RP (8): Rogers, Topa, Sands, Banda, Funderburk, Orze, Liam Hendriks, David Festa

C (2): Jeffers, Caratini

IF (6): Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Clemens, Tristan Gray

OF (5): Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Austin Martin, James Outman

Martin and Outman get Opening Day spots thanks to their versatility and ability to provide late game value off the bench with defense and baserunning. Bradley beats out Zebby for the final rotation spot. Hendriks is healthy and Festa shines in short spurts to give the Twins some electricity at the end of games. 

Most controversially, I have Gray as the final position player. Kreidler is a marginal defender at shortstop while Gray shines there. He also has the potential to be a much better hitter than Kreidler and have a mid-career offensive breakout like the Twins helped Willi Castro discover. I think Arcia is completely washed. If you can’t hit in Denver in August, you can’t do it in Minneapolis in April. Thanks for reminding me of Twins legend/your brother Oswaldo Arcia, though. 

Who do you see making the Twins out of Spring Training? Any surprises you think will come out of nowhere like Castro in 2023 or Jhoan Duran in 2022? 

Drew Smith’s time with the Mets has officially come to an end. 

The right-hander was among the clubs longest-tenured members, but now he’s landed a minor league deal to remain in the NL East with the Washington Nationals. 

SNY’s Michelle Margaux was first on the report. 

According to Margaux, Smith could earn $1.75M if he makes the big-league team. 

Smith, of course, missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. 

It’s unknown exactly where he stands in his recovery at this point, but you’d have to figure he’s at least close to or at 100 percent heading into spring training.

If so, the 32-year-old could quickly earn a high-leverage role in Washington’s bullpen. 

Smith pitched to a 3.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 202 strikeouts in parts of six big-league seasons with the Mets. 

He made his MLB debut in the Big Apple in 2018 after being acquired from Tampa Bay in the Lucas Duda trade (July 2017). 

AdAdam Macko is a 25-year-old, left-handed pitcher. The Jays added him to the 40-man roster in November 2023, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. He was born in Bratislava, Slovakia (he grew up in Ireland). A quick Baseball Reference search shows that the Jays have never had a player born in Slovakia. The most famous MLB players from Slovakia? Elmer Valo played 20 seasons, mostly for the Phillies, in the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, who played the outfield and had a 28.7 career bWAR, and pitcher Jack, who played 23 seasons, with 8 teams, between 1909 and 1933, missing a couple of seasons due to World War One, who had a 59.7 bWAR with 247 wins.

Adam’s family came to Alberta to go to the Vauxhall Baseball Academy. Apparently, Vauxhall is the potato capital of Canada and is a 2.5-hour drive from Calgary, but I’m almost sure I’ve never been there.

Adam came to us in the Teoscar Hernandez trade (with Erik Swanson). He was number 8 on our top prospect list last year (he’ll fall off the list this year, as he’s 25). Tom M wrote:

He pitches with a smooth left handed delivery that he repeats well in spite of a longish arm action. His fastball is a four seamer between 91 and 95mph that has average carry and plus arm side run. His primary breaking ball (and in some outings most thrown pitch) is a slider that averages 80mph but on which he can vary the speed and shape from a cutter-ish 82 to a curve-ish 78. He also has a big curve in the low 70s with easy plus depth and an 81mph change-up with major arm side fade and some depth. The velocity’s fringy but everything moves and he has feel for locating the fastball and slider especially that help them play up a little. The change might have the best movement profile but his feel to land it varies, and the curve is so big hitters tend to lay off it, so it might be more of a strike stealing weapon than a swing and miss pitch. His command is average when he’s on, but it can come and go a bit.

Right now, Macko checks all the boxes to fit as a back end starter. He’s put up decent numbers through AA, and his repertoire is good enough and deep enough to hold up in that role even if he lacks the true put-away pitch necessary to be a top three starter in a good rotation. The only thing left to do is prove that he can handle a full season’s starting workload by getting over 100 innings in a season. He’ll get his chance starting in Buffalo.

Keith Law has him 20th on his top 20 Jays prospect list this year:

Macko missed the start of the 2025 season after knee surgery, returning to Triple A in early June to be sort of mediocre as a starter, then moved to the bullpen and saw mostly better results. He works with four pitches, with the slider and curveball probably 55s and his fastball 92-94 as a starter. His command and control have always lagged behind his stuff. He gained almost a full mile per hour on the fastball when he moved to relief and was in the zone much more often, and hitters chased more of his pitches out of the zone, including the fastball. He should make his MLB debut this year, which would make him the first Slovakian-born big leaguer since 1961 and the first to grow up there in MLB history.

He’s in his last option year, which adds a little pressure to the season.

Unfortunately, he had a meniscus tear in spring training last year and later had a forearm strain, costing him a couple of months of the season. He ended up pitching in 18 games for the Bisons, including 10 starts, with a 5.20 ERA over 64 innings, 36 walks, and 65 strikeouts.

He throws a four-seam fastball averaging 94 mph, a slider, a slow curve, and a changeup.

Macko is in a tough spot; there are a number of pitchers battling for the ‘first to be called up if a starter goes down’ spot. Ricky Tiedemann, Lazaro Estrada, Jake Bloss, and some non-roster spring invitees will get a good look this spring. But then the team might be looking at Adam as a reliever now. A good spring would help him out.

If you want some video:

Steamer thinks he’ll play in 14 games, 2 starts, 21 innings with a 4.39 ERA.

After a busy Dodgers offseason, we have a pretty idea of what their roster will eventually look like. But the active roster over the 186 days of a major league regular season is an ever-changing organism.

The Dodgers last year used 62 players, for instance, including 40 pitchers, both the most in franchise history. If we increase the threshold of playing time to five games, the 2025 team used 48 different players. In other words, expect several players to contribute in some fashion in 2026.

With a full nine-player lineup and top six starting pitchers all signed through for at least two more seasons, the Dodgers have a relatively-set roster in the abstract. But there are still decisions to be made this spring, some of which are due to injuries and some uncertainty.

Blake Snell was dealing with some fatigue this offseason after shoulder trouble last season, and while he might be ready for opening day there’s at least a chance of a rotation opening at the beginning of the season. There’s also the returns of River Ryan and Gavin Stone after both missed last season after surgeries.

Among the position players, Tommy Edman is coming off right ankle surgery and making his way back with a goal of being ready for the whole season if not necessarily available in late March.

Kiké Hernández is back in the fold, but won’t be ready at the beginning of the offseason as he recovers from left elbow surgery. That opens up a spot on the bench even if Edman is fully ready, which could mean a chance for one or both of Hyeseong Kim and Alex Call.

In the bullpen, Brock Stewart had shoulder surgery in October and won’t be ready for opening day. Neither will Brusdar Graterol, who missed all of last season after his own shoulder surgery and will be slow-played this spring.

Today’s question is What position battles are you looking forward to seeing this spring training?

At this time of year, I tend to start thinking through what my expectations are for the coming season. Having a base model in my head helps me avoid overreacting to early-season noise. Part of that process includes looking at the AL Central, the main competition the Royals need to beat to reach the playoffs. It is not typically considered a very strong division, as the coastal, big-money teams are in the West or East in both leagues, with the possible exception of the two Chicago teams, who play in big media markets but have not traditionally acted like it.

I’m going to start with the weakest team and work through the other non-Royals clubs before getting to how Kansas City matches up.

Chicago White Sox

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 0.4% / 1.1%
BP: 0.5% / 1.1%

Both systems agree that the White Sox are going to need some very fortunate bounces to compete for even the last wild-card slot. They have some individually talented players, but there are simply too many holes in the roster to take them seriously as a contender. They don’t really have a unit that qualifies as a strength.

Their rotation features Shane Smith, who had a genuinely nice 2025 season but profiles more as a solid third starter than an Opening Day, top-of-the-rotation arm. After him, there are several back-end types who are really fifth or sixth starters unless Anthony Kay learned something in NPB that unlocked another level, or Erick Fedde rediscovers the weird magic that made him good for that stretch in 2024. Maybe Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith can come up from the prospect ranks and improve things.

The bullpen is very similar. I think Grant Taylor is really good, and there are a few other decent arms, but not enough, and none who are true back-end anchors. Seranthony Domínguez as your seventh-inning guy is probably fine; as your closer, it leaves a lot to be desired. His inconsistency over the years is concerning for that role. The pitching staff is almost certainly going to be in the bottom half of the league.

The offense is not much better. They again have a couple of interesting bats. Colson Montgomery had a very nice debut at age 23. Projection systems don’t believe he can come close to repeating it, but there’s some hope. Kyle Teel is similarly interesting as a catcher who should provide value at the plate. The outfield, outside of Luis Robert Jr., is rough. When Andrew Benintendi (still only 31!?) is hitting in the middle of your lineup, things are probably not going well. This unit is going to need a lot of luck to score enough runs to be competitive.

Cleveland Guardians

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 5.9% / 13.3%
BP: 5.4% / 9.4%

I still don’t really get how the Guardians did what they did last season, and the projection systems seem to agree. This is a flawed team — especially offensively — that somehow rides its pitching well enough to reach the playoffs on a recurring basis.

They don’t have anyone you’d call a true ace, but Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are both good. Maybe Parker Messick can give them a reliable third option at the top of the rotation, but this is not a scary group. There’s enough depth and competence to be middle-of-the-pack or slightly better, though.

The bullpen has been their strength the last few years and might continue to be. Cade Smith is a beast, though Hunter Gaddis backed up quite a bit last year after his dominant 2024. And of course, there’s no more Clase. I could see a scenario where this ends up below league average, but I’ll give the organization the benefit of the doubt, given its track record of building bullpens. They have eight or so other arms from which they’ll likely cobble together a third and fourth option, plus depth.

The lineup, on the other hand, is just bad. They’ve struggled to score runs for years. José Ramírez and Steven Kwan give them stability, and I think Kyle Manzardo provides a third consistently above-average bat. After that, it’s a lot of wishing. Can they find a way to score enough runs to stay competitive? They may need Travis Bazzana, Cooper Ingle, or maybe Ralphy Velazquez to come up and add a quality bat, but none of them are sure things. (Still love the name Ralphy.)

Minnesota Twins

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 17.1% / 32.6%
BP: 17.3% / 26.8%

Projection systems consistently seem to love the Twins. And the Twins love disappointing them — at least that’s how it has felt in recent years.

After the fire sale at last year’s deadline, many would assume they have little to no shot, but these probabilities disagree. I think it’s mostly a function of a very good rotation. Pablo López and Joe Ryan make a nice one-two punch. Add quality depth behind them, and you have one of the better starting fives in baseball.

For me, the problems arise in the bullpen. There’s no clear top-end arm anymore. Maybe Taylor Rogers or Justin Topa recaptures some of their previous dominance, but I wouldn’t bet on anyone in this bullpen as a true slam-the-door option. The depth was also thinned out at the deadline. It looks like an inconsistent group.

There are talented hitters. Byron Buxton is very, very good — and we also know he tends to disappear from the lineup. You can realistically hope for 100–110 games of his production. Luke Keaschall had a good 2025 debut and looks like a nice long-term piece, but he’s more of a table-setter than a top-tier bat, especially since that .340 BABIP is unlikely to repeat. Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers are solid, and maybe Royce Lewis finally pulls it all together (I sincerely doubt it).

They’ll score some runs, but I doubt they’ll finish in the top half of the league offensively. Left field, shortstop, first base, and DH are all considerable issues that bringing in Josh Bell does not fix. His projections are odd — I’m not sure why systems expect his best season since 2022 at age 33, but they do. One true middle-of-the-order bat is not enough, and there’s always the threat of ownership shedding more payroll.

Detroit Tigers

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 54.3% / 69.8%
BP: 36.1% / 49.7%

Now we get to the favorites. The Tigers have a lot going for them and have added a couple of large pieces to get even stronger.

Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and a back end of Jack Flaherty, Verlander, and Casey Mize is solid. I have concerns about Verlander, but he really just needs to be serviceable. The Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe injuries reduce their depth, which does hurt, but they’re still positioned to have one of the best rotations in the league.

The bullpen is significantly less intimidating. Will Vest was dominant for stretches last year, but counting on that for a full season feels risky. Any team planning on Kenley Jansen as its closer at this stage has questions. Nothing against Jansen, but last year feels a bit like fool’s gold statistically. Can they get reliable back-end production from Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, and others? It feels like they’ll have a lot of serviceable arms without true top-end dominance. That creates risk — and it contributed to their inability to hold the division late.

The other issue was consistent run scoring. That’s a theme in the Central: solid starting pitching, inconsistent bats. The Tigers probably have the most stable lineup top to bottom. Riley Greene has become a stalwart, and Spencer Torkelson finally put it together to add thump. I believe in those two, and adding Gleyber Torres helps.

It’s the Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Pérez, and Zack McKinstry group I’m less sold on. Most outperformed their underlying metrics last year. Javier Báez had a strange renaissance before reverting to below-average production. This is a good offense if those supporting pieces hold. If not, it becomes pedestrian. If Kevin McGonigle or Max Clark forces the issue, that would help considerably.

Given the rotation strength, they have to be considered favorites, regardless of BP slightly preferring the Royals.

Kansas City

AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 22.3% / 39.9%
BP: 40.7% / 55.8%

After looking at everyone else, I’m more optimistic about the Royals than I was initially.

Their starting pitching strength and depth match up well within the division. Injuries are the biggest risk, as we saw last year. Cole Ragans likely needs to return to Cy Young-level form for this team to reach its ceiling, but the rotation should be second or third in the division at worst.

I also like the bullpen more now. The back end of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Matt Strahm is better than any other in the division. I don’t even think that’s particularly arguable, though I do have mild concerns about both Erceg and Estévez. The depth — John Schreiber, Nick Mears, possibly displaced starters, and Luinder Avila focusing solely on relief — gives them the strongest bullpen depth in the Central. This may be the best bullpen KC has had in some time. Hopefully that’s not just spring hopium.

Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly the best player in the division, and Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Maikel Garcia give the Royals the strongest top-of-the-lineup core in the Central. The questions come at leadoff and in the back half. There aren’t as many internal solutions as Detroit has, and there aren’t elite prospects waiting in the wings. Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone may determine whether this lineup is good enough. Isaac Collins, Jonathan India, and Lane Thomas matter too — but mostly they just need to be useful and outproduce last year’s black holes.

I’m probably closer to the Fangraphs division odds – around 25% – because I think Detroit is slightly better overall. But I also believe this front office will add if needed, which could push that toward 30–35%. On overall playoff odds, I’m closer to BP.

The AL as a whole feels open. I see only five clearly better teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners. That puts the Royals somewhere near 50% to make the playoffs — and I’m ready for the season to begin.

What do you think?

Let’s get something out of the way right off the bat. The Yanks’ initial free agent contract for DJ LeMahieu will go down as one of the smartest moves they have ever made. We’ve sung its praises before! Pilfering the second baseman from the Rockies on a two-year, $24 million contract in October 2018, New York could not have imagined the bang they’d receive for their buck. It just wasn’t as notable at the time of its signing as the one we’re discussing today.

Anyway, back to the bargain for a moment. Over the next two seasons (the latter shortened by COVID-19), DJLM hit a combined .336/.386/.536, good for a 146 OPS+. He led the Junior Circuit in batting average, on-base percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage in 2020, and compiled 7.1 bWAR per 162 games. If you subscribe to the theory that 1 WAR is worth about $10 million, 2019-20 DJ provided $62 million in surplus value, a number that would have certainly been even higher had the 2020 season not been capped at 60 games.

Oh, and DJ provided one of the biggest playoff moments in recent Yankee history in Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS, smashing a clutch, game-tying, two-run home run in Houston with two outs to go against Roberto Osuna. He saved the season … for a whole 15 minutes or so. It was all for naught, of course, “thanks” to Aroldis Chapman.

But still. What an absolute steal that first contract was. When the Yankees 2020 season ended, ignominiously, at the hands of the Rays (oh hey, thanks again Chappy), so did DJ’s first contract with the Yanks. What would the Yankees do?

DJ LeMahieu
Signing Date: January 27, 2021
Contract: 6 years, $90 million

In the least surprising turn of events imaginable, the Yankees tendered LeMahieu the qualifying offer and he rejected it. Coming off that COVID-shortened campaign when he hit .364 to pace the Junior Circuit and finished third for the AL MVP (which he may have deserved with a league-leading 3.0 rWAR), it would have been stunning had DJ accepted the QO. It would have been equally unimaginable for the Yankees to let DJLM walk, as he was versatile with the ability to man second, third, and first, and he was arguably as central to the entire offensive operation as Aaron Judge.

So, off to free agency he went. And, like entirely too many free agent sagas in MLB, this one dragged on much too long. Thanksgiving, the Winter Meetings, Christmas, and the turn of the calendar all came and went with LeMahieu unsigned.

By mid-December, the Yankees and their star were roughly $25 million apart in negotiations, according to reports. Everyone and their dog knew DJ was their number one priority, but with the gap, news leaked that LeMahieu was ready to engage with other clubs. Meanwhile, our own Peter Brody wrote a cogent analysis of why the Yankees could (should?) pass on LeMahieu, given their self-imposed financial constraints.

Obviously, his flirtations came to nothing. In late January, the hot stove really heated up where DJ was concerned. Ominously, reports emerged that the Yankees’ priorities were perhaps askew. Jim Bowden reported (accurately) in the days prior to LeMahieu’s signing that the front office was concerned with the luxury tax implications of signing DJ.

“According to a source the #Yankees deal with LeMahieu will be for more than 4 years……now question is it 5 or 6 years… According to a source the #Yankees preferred more years and less AAV in LeMahieu deal for luxury tax issues. Deal will be for more than 4 years.”

LeMahieu was about to enter his age-32 season. A six-year pact would lock the Yankees in financially through his age-37 campaign. And lest readers wonder if this is all hindsight being 2020, it has long been a truism that second basemen have rough aging curves. Nate Silver touched on this as far back as 2005 in Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs revisited the topic in the context of the Yankees’ efforts in early 2013 to extend Robinson Canó before that superstar Yankees second baseman hit free agency. Anecdotally, it feels like one of those adages I’ve known my entire adult life.

Alas, Bowden was right. Instead of a four-year deal with a higher AAV, the Yanks opted for frugality and extended the total cost over six years. A fully functional Death Star, indeed.

The deal was agreed upon in mid-January but not until January 27th did it become official. New York had to keep DJ and they did, while minimizing the annual hit to their payroll. And as Lindsey Adler pointed out in the pages of The Athletic, DJ got a long-term deal likely to take him through to the end of his career. For his part, DJ was happy to be back in pinstripes.

The thought exercise here is fascinating. This article, and Yankee fandom’s historical memory of DJLM, likely looks very different if the Yanks had inked him to a shorter-term, higher AAV deal. Imagine a four-year pact. When injury and underperformance caused LeMahieu to crater in 2024, New York could have parted ways with him at any point, with no money remaining on the books past that season.

Instead, DJ was back last season because the Yankees were too reluctant to admit that they were getting nothing for their $30 million across the final two years of the deal. And while he was considerably better than in ’24, that’s not saying much. New York parted ways with him last July, but because of the decision to pursue a longer-term deal that lowered LeMahieu’s AAV, they’re still on the hook paying him in 2026.*

*He hasn’t retired, but no team has signed him in seven months and it feels distinctly possible that his long-term deal will have indeed taken him to the end of his career. So at least he has that, I suppose.

It boggles the mind that the Yankees, who boast resources and revenues few other teams can match, insist on pinching pennies at the weirdest possible times. The fatal miscalculation they made while garnering any luxury tax savings enabled by this deal was that there was an opportunity cost in the desire to keep running LeMahieu out there when he had long since been a productive ballplayer, just to try to get something. Superior present options could have been pursued, or at the very least, they could have stopped playing Jazz Chisholm Jr. out of position at third just to accommodate the hobbled LeMahieu, no longer physically able to man the hot corner.

Back on the field, it wasn’t all doom and gloom at the start of the new contract. LeMahieu did come back to Earth in 2021, but even a nearly 100-point regression in his batting average left him a league-average hitter who played a solid second base and provided veteran leadership. Part of it could even be blamed on a sports hernia that he was playing through down the stretch, which got to be so painful that LeMahieu was unable to appear in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game loss to the Red Sox.

LeMahieu’s 2022 season was even better. He had a 110 OPS+ and by bWAR, it was the third-best season of his career (ignoring the giant COVID-shaped elephant in the room that was 2020). He appropriately won the first-ever AL Gold Glove for a utilityman as well.

But it all went to hell in the middle of August, when LeMahieu broke a sesamoid bone in his right big toe — a mouthful of an injury that only got worse when he also suffered ligament damage in his second toe. Unable to generate any drive and with a brief IL stint not helping matters, he again missed the postseason. As it turned out, he would never appear in a playoff game on this contract.

In 2023, LeMahieu was fine, even showing signs of resurgence in the second half with an .809 OPS. But there were signs that it was a bit luck-driven, and in 2024, that train came completely off the tracks. I know we’re harping on it, but Aaron Boone and the Yankees stubbornly kept running him out there, and even ran it back in 2025 before finally admitting defeat and releasing him last summer.

The second DJ LeMahieu deal never even came close to the lofty returns of its predecessor. But, to a certain extent, that is the Yankees’ own fault. Letting DJ walk after his sensational 2019-20 was likely never an option and would have drawn the ire of the vast majority of their fans.

But choosing to extend the tenure of his contract over six years rather than a shorter term was an unmitigated disaster that has soured fans’ opinions of the front office and their memories of LeMahieu, who deserved a better fate given his initial smashing success.

References

Blum, Ronald. “After 4 straight injury-marred seasons, DJ LeMahieu hopes to regain former form as batting champion.” Associates Press. February 18, 2025.

Brody, Peter. “The case against re-signing DJ LeMahieu.” Pinstripe Alley. December 18, 2020.

Cameron, Dave. “Robinson Cano and Second Base Aging Curves.” FanGraphs. March 1, 2013.

DJ LeMahieu. Baseball-Reference.

DJ LeMahieu. FanGraphs.

Harding, Thomas. “Fan favorite LeMahieu signs with Yankees.” MLB. January 11, 2019.

Hoch, Bryan. “LeMahieu placed on injured list.” MLB. October 3, 2021.

Hoch, Bryan. “Yanks finalize LeMahieu’s 6-year deal.” MLB. January 27, 2021.

Kirschner, Chris. “Yankees release DJ LeMahieu, still owe him $15 million in 2026.” The Athletic. July 9, 2025.

Rosenstein, Mike. “MLB rumors: Yankees-DJ LeMahieu contract terms take shape | Deal won’t crack $100 million.” NJ.com. January 15, 2021.

Silver, Nate. “Lies, Damned Lies: A New Look at Aging.” Baseball Prospectus. September 22, 2005.

“Yankees, DJ LeMahieu in agreement on 6-year deal: Source.” The Athletic. January 15, 2021.

“Yankees, DJ LeMahieu more than $25 million apart in negotiations: Sources.” The Athletic. December 14, 2020.

See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.