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Tonight, my MLB strikeout props are looking to back steady, consistent arms while fading a few of the game’s more vulnerable starters.

Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looks to get our weekend started, so here are my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, July 2. 

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Nathan Eovaldi	Over 6.5 strikeouts	-121
Bryce Miller	Over 7.5 strikeouts	+121
Randy Vasquez	Over 3.5 earned runs	+115

Strikeout prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (-121)

As I mentioned in my moneyline predictions piece today, I think this is a letdown spot for the Detroit Tigers after coming off a solid series against the walking corpse we refer to as the New York Yankees. They now draw a red-hot Texas Rangers team led by Nathan Eovaldi, who has been striking out hitters at a very high rate.

On the other side, the Tigers have not been striking out a ton, but this is still one of the most inconsistent offenses in baseball. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six bats own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate. Three of those six bats are 30% or worse.

With Eovaldi owning a strikeout rate above 30% over his last three outings, I expect that success to continue tonight. Take this down to -130 if you must.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, DSN

Strikeout prop: Bryce Miller Over 7.5 strikeouts (+121)

Seattle Mariners right hander Bryce Miller has been on a tear lately, posting a near 40% strikeout rate over his last five outings. Tonight, he draws one of the most swing-happy, lowest contact teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels.

The Halos have been one of the worst strikeout teams in the league this season, sitting second-worst in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, while also ranking third-worst in contact rate.

Those numbers have held steady on the road. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six hitters carry at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with three north of 25.4%.

Snagging this prop above +120 feels like a strong price.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SEAM, ABTV

Earned runs prop: Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 earned runs (+115)

Sure, asking any team to go off for four runs in the first five is a lot, but most teams are not the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plus, most teams are not facing a right hander who owns a 10.03 ERA, 7.80 xERA, and 2.40 WHIP over Randy Vasquez's last three starts.

Even going back to his last five outings, the Padres starter has a 7.59 xERA and 2.13 WHIP, while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate.

The Dodgers are scorching-hot at the moment, despite falling to the Athletics last night. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a 131 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .807 OPS, and .167 ISO.

I am already a massive fan of Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy this evening, so why not give me the rest of that lineup?

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLBN

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Pick a negative adjective and you can apply it to the 2026 Kansas City Royals. They’re awful. Terrible. Boring. Gutless. Embarrassing. They fail to do the big things, like scoring runs and preventing the other team from doing the same. They also fail to do the small things, like running the bases without making outs and avoiding crucial defensive errors when it matters most. 

If that sounds too harsh, well, I promise you that it’s just what the statistics and the eye test bear out. At 35-52, the Royals are on pace for just 65 wins. They have the worst record in the American League and the worst run differential in the American League; only the shambling corpse of the Colorado Rockies saves Kansas City from being the worst team with the worst run differential in the entirety of Major League Baseball.

Compounding these problems is the weight of expectations, as the Royals entered the season as contenders. The club itself had its sights set on making the playoffs one year after winning 82 games, two years after winning 86 and squeaking into the postseason. Pundits and fans expected good things, and so did the emotionless computers: PECOTA thought the Royals were an 84-win team, and ZiPS thought that the Royals would run it back as an 82-win team.

Kansas City’s response at each of the low points in the year has been to do nothing. A little over a month ago, I wrote that Royals leadership was asleep at the wheel. Despite a wide variety of potential moves available to them, they had chosen to do nothing–only eventually making the most cursory of changes to the lineup out of necessity. Since that point, the Royals have gone 13-18, further sliding down the slippery slope towards oblivion. 

Except for the Royals, oblivion has not come. There has been no reckoning even as teams in similarly dire straights made changes. Most recently, the New York Mets fired their manager, Carlos Mendoza, after a 34-48 start. On the same day, the Los Angeles Angels fired their general manager, Perry Minasian, after a 34-49 start. They’re not the only ones, of course; others have paid a price for failing to meet expectations this year. 

But not for the Royals. And on the first game of the homestand, we got another look into the reason why: they just don’t hold themselves to the standard that other teams hold themselves to. These few sentences of JJ Picollo’s interview provide some clear insight into that fact (emphasis mine):

“I know what this group is about,” Picollo said. “I know how they work. They’re very curious. They want answers. They want to try to find solutions to the questions we have. I know they’re prepared every day. And that’s all we can ask. At the end of the year, you take a look and say, ‘Is this really moving in the direction we want to go?’

“But right now, just keep having conversations with them, share what we’re seeing as a front office. Let them share concerns they have with us, so together we can be part of the answers with each other.”

A few caveats before digging in: Picollo here is talking about the coaching staff specifically, not the front office or the players. Additionally, there is a grain of salt you have to apply to these interviews: this is a PR play, and Picollo is not going to throw anybody under the bus publicly.

But with that out of the way…yikes!

Sports is simple: it’s entertainment. More winning, more entertainment. Less winning, less entertainment. And at the core is a social contract where if teams try hard to win games, fans will show up. If teams don’t try hard to win games, or if they’re really bad at it, fans stop showing up. Losing, therefore, is a very important part of the feedback loop because it ought to prompt teams to change things so they don’t lose fans.

For whatever reason, though, that part of the feedback loop is gone and is nowhere to be found. Losing just doesn’t stick. It isn’t a strong enough signal. It’s not even a signal that matters–to Picollo, what matters is effort. Are the Royals decision makers trying really hard? Are they curious? Are they prepared? He says it verbatim: “that’s all we can ask.” 

That’s all we can ask? Really? I don’t know about any of you, but I don’t decide what to do with my evenings based on how hard any group of people tries or not. I decide based on how much joy any given activity gives me. Right now, the Royals give me, a person who spends who knows how many hours every year writing and thinking about them, no joy. 

I don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors. But it doesn’t really matter what’s going on behind closed doors. Right now, it’s about the product on the field–which, objectively, sucks. Right now, it’s about what the Royals are doing about it–which, objectively, is nothing. Kansas City is trying to sell togetherness and solidarity when fans want competent baseball. The Royals should be asking more of themselves than trying really hard. They can ask more. They should ask more. The fans certainly are. 

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees host the Twins at Yankee Stadium for a three-game series starting Friday...

5 things to watch

Snapping the losing streak

New York enters Friday's series on a seven-game losing streak and 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the AL East. 

Luckily for them, they own the Twins. 

Over their last 10 meetings, the Yankees are 8-2 and have outscored the Twins, 63-39. If there was a time to snap the streak, this would be the weekend to do it.

Will Gerrit Cole get back on track?

Cole is still trying to round into form since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he has had some tough times recently.

In his last two starts, he's allowed nine earned runs across 9.2 innings pitched. His ERA has ballooned to 4.06 and perhaps a little home cooking will do Cole good. Those previous two starts were on the road and in his last home start -- against the White Sox on June 16 -- he allowed two runs in 6.0 innings pitched.

As the Yankees wait for Max Fried to return, and with the starters scuffling a bit, New York needs Cole. 

Is Ben Rice back?

Rice was in an 0-for-18 slump when he hit a home run off Tarik Skubal on Tuesday night. Although that was the only hit for him, he followed it up with a 1-for-3 day in the series finale against the Tigers on Wednesday. He also walked twice. 

Rice is still one of the best Yankees hitters this season, batting .269 with a .921 OPS to go with his 23 home runs. With Aaron Judge still on the mend, he'll need to carry the bulk of the offensive load. 

But he shouldn't do it alone...

Cody Bellinger, on the other hand....

Bellinger is in the midst of a 5-for-46 slump. 

The former MVP is still having a great season and is a big reason -- along with Rice -- that the Yankees got off to a hot start in June with Judge on the IL. Luckily for Bellinger, the Twins will trot out three right-handers (Mike Paredes, Zebby Matthews, Joe Ryan) this weekend, so it could be the get-right series the struggling lefty Yankees are looking for.

Reinforcements on the way

Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon are expected to be activated from the IL on Friday. While Grisham's bat could help during this stretch, what both provide defensively is key. During this losing streak, the Yanks have committed nine errors and allowed 16 unearned runs. A big part of that is having players play out of position -- mostly at third base -- and McMahon's Gold Glove-caliber defense will help. The same goes with Grisham in center field, allowing Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez/Spencer Jones to man the corners.

That allows Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario to play in position and -- in the case of Rosario -- be used off the bench. We'll see if Grisham and McMahon fix those defensive lapses.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

The young slugger is starting to look like himself. That continues.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Gerrit Cole

Cole will be rested and pitching at home will do him good.

Which Twins player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Royce Lewis

I would say Byron Buxton, but the All-Star outfielder is dealing with a hip injury so his status for this series is uncertain. Since Lewis was recalled on June 6, he's batting .279 with five home runs. 

The latest news and updates on the Houston Astros:

Cristian Javier will return to the Astros in the bullpen:

Javier’s inability to maintain effective velocity has plagued him since he returned from Tommy John surgery. It continues to be an issue for him on his rehab assignment. The Astros appear to be banking that shorter outings can allow Javier to maximize his best velocity in shorter bursts. How well his arm holds up to pen life is yet to be uncovered. Whether he can go back to back days, 3 out of 4, etc, whether he is comfortable coming in mid-inning with men on base (or can be trusted in such a situation as he does walk his share of batters) are all things the Astros must find out between now and the deadline.

Also noted in Rome’s piece:

Kai-Wei Teng will return to the team in the bullpen.

The Teng as a start experiment is over for 2026 (pending further notice). Teng developed arm fatigue starting, as he has pitched more innings in a short period of time than he was previously accustomed to. He was originally optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land to get some down time, but the Astros then discovered the knee injury. As a result, they cancelled his minor league assignment and placed him on the major league 15-day IL.

Teams are interested in P A.J. Blubaugh:

Blubaugh leads all MLB relievers in innings pitched. He has often been called upon to bail the Astros pen out when a starter fails to get any depth into a game (something that once again happened yesterday). Blubaugh make s the minimum, throws up to 98 MPH, and has pitched as a starter in the minors, making him highly attractive to suitors.

Could the Javier experiment in the pen be a precursor to Blubaugh being dealt to acquire a bigger need elsewhere? His stuff, early success, minimum contract and team control should make his value very high.

The maddening Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde act of Tatsuya Imai continues:

That Imai has such terrific stuff yet somehow loses all command so completely and so quickly is one of the biggest mysteries of the sport this season. That the Astros famous ‘pitching lab’ hasn’t been able to get him figured out may be the 2nd biggest mystery.

After being the first Astros starter to post double digit strikeouts in back to back games, Imai laid another colossal egg yesterday being unable to get out of the 2nd inning, allowing 2 HR and 5 BB.

Houston’s ability to get Imai straightened out will be a top 3 factor in whether the team makes the postseason or not. The swings from ‘Good Imai” to “Bad Imai” are simply too drastic to survive the dog days of August, as his bad days put far too much pressure on a bullpen that has already been overtaxed this season.

Ray Delgado: He’s here, he’s gone, he’s back, now he’s gone again:

It has been a whirlwind for the rookie infielder, who got his first taste of the bigs 2 days after the Astros acquired him for cash considerations. He has held his own at the plate, and been a versatile defender.

He then got caught in the numbers game when Nick Allen was ready to be activated, only to be recalled a day later when Jeremy Pena landed back on the IL. Unfortunately for Delgado, a bad hop just stole some of his opportunity.

Delgado has gotten the start at SS yesterday, his second game since being recalled following Pena’s injury. A bad hop ball that struck second base right in front of him led him to try to adjust to the new higher trajectory of the ball with his bare hand. The ball banged off his right pinky, dislocating it.

While the Astros have not made any official move as yet, it seems likely an IL stint is coming up.

Perhaps Braden Shewmake, who equated himself well previously this season before he landed on the IL, could be a candidate to replace him when the team will need to make a decision before Friday’s game.

Christian Walker left yesterday’s game with lower back soreness:

Walker has struggled in the month of June but has also been the team’s second best power bat behind Yordan Alvarez. Walker is tied for the team lead in doubles (16), second in HR (19), RBI (56), Hits (77) and Runs (45). His defense at 1B and ability to pick throws cannot be understated.

While Walker played down the significance of the injury, it is certainly something to monitor as the team is very much feeling the loss of Jeremy Pena right now. With Carlos Correa already lost for the season and the OF providing little offense, losing Walker for an extended period would be a big blow to the lineup.

The Astros top 2 prospects are going to the Futures Game:

Alvarez (18) and Neyens (19) are the jewels of the system. They will also be highly sought after at the deadline. In a season where top prospects should carry extra value with a looming long work stoppage expected, if the Astros decide to trade either of them, they must get absolute max value for them. They cannot be traded for marginal improvements, only for true impact players (should they be dealt at all).

Twenty-four years ago today, the Blue Jays traded Raul Mondesi, along with cash, to the Yankees for Scott Wiggins. The return wasn’t significant—Wiggins only pitched three games for Toronto—but the true benefit was shedding Mondesi’s salary and removing an unhappy presence from the clubhouse.

Toronto had acquired Mondesi from the Dodgers in November 1999 by trading away Shawn Green. The Jays hadn’t wanted to part with Green, but he demanded a trade after the team hired Cito Gaston as hitting coach. Green and Gaston had a rocky relationship dating back to Green’s early days with the team, when Gaston was manager. Gaston encouraged hitters to pull the ball, while Green favored hitting to all fields—leading to some disagreements, as detailed in Green’s autobiography.

The Jays hoped Mondesi’s statistics would improve with a move from the spacious Dodger Stadium to the more hitter-friendly SkyDome. That improvement never materialized, and Mondesi was openly unhappy in Toronto. Complicating matters, he had a hefty contract and Toronto boasted three superior outfielders in Shannon Stewart, Vernon Wells, and Jose Cruz.

Why did the Yankees want him?

It wasn’t the Yankees’ front office that wanted Mondesi, but team owner George Steinbrenner. He instructed team president Randy Levine to call Jays president Paul Godfrey to get the deal done, as reported by the Guelph Mercury Tribune:

As Godfrey tells it, the Yankees were struggling with injuries to their outfield at the time, and a play one day led a TV announcer to wonder why Steinbrenner was doing nothing with Mondesi on the market.

“Within minutes, Yankees president Randy Levine called me and said he wanted to make a deal for an outfielder,” Godfrey recalled. “I didn’t think he meant Mondesi, since we’d already tried shopping him around. So I asked, ‘Why isn’t GM Brian Cashman dealing with our GM, J.P. Ricciardi?’”

”And Randy yells, ‘George doesn’t want those two guys involved, they’ll never get a God damn deal done, I’m on instructions from George to get this God damn deal done now.’”

So Godfrey asked for five minutes, called Ricciardi and explained that he had to do the deal with Levine (to which Ricciardi replied, “I don’t care, get rid of Mondesi immediately”), got a list of prospects to ask for, and eventually settled with Levine on pitcher Scott Wiggins in return.

Toronto included $6 million with Mondesi in the trade. They’d been trying to move him for some time, but found no takers. Fortunately for the Jays, Steinbrenner was undeterred by his own front office’s reluctance. With Paul O’Neill retiring after the 2001 season, the Yankees were searching for a big bat in the lineup.

Mondesi played a season and a half for the Yankees, hitting .250/.323/.453 with 27 home runs over 169 games. At the 2004 trade deadline, he was sent to the Diamondbacks. Mondesi played for three more teams before retiring from baseball after the 2005 season.

While it might be considered one of J.P. Ricciardi’s better trades, he actually played a minimal role in making it happen.

After his baseball career, Mondesi became mayor of San Cristóbal, but was later sentenced to 8 years in prison for corruption and mismanagement of public funds during his term in office. That term ‘mismanagement is wrong. Embezzlement would be a better word.