The Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns tonight at the Mortgage Matchup Center in a winner-take-all NBA Play-In finale to decide the eighth seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. The winner secures a first-round playoff date against the top-seed and defending NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The loser’s season ends tonight.
Golden State enters this matchup riding the momentum of a thrilling 126–121 comeback win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Stephen Curry scored 27 of his 35 points in the second half to lead the Warriors comeback. Draymond Green locked down Kawhi Leonard in the second half and veteran Al Horford buried four, three-pointers in the fourth quarter to seal the win in SoCal. Despite finishing the regular season with a 37–45 record, the Warriors' championship pedigree was on full display as they erased a 13-point final-quarter deficit to keep their postseason hopes alive. There may be a minutes restriction on Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) but they can overcome that if Horford and Green turn back the clock as they did against the Clippers.
Like the Clippers, the Suns also blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead in their initial play-in game. Because they are the seventh seed, however, they get a second opportunity to qualify for the playoffs. Defense has been at the foundation of the Suns’ success this season, but make no mistake, Devin Booker is the key to Phoenix advancing to the playoffs. They have few scoring options outside of the former Kentucky guard. Adding to the challenge is the fact the Suns are expected to be without Grayson Allen (hamstring) and may be without Mark Williams (foot). Their absences would be substantial.
Tonight's game is the fifth meeting between these Pacific Division rivals this year, with the Warriors holding a 3–1 regular-season advantage.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Warriors vs. Suns
Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
Time: 10PM EST
Site: Mortgage Matchup Center
City: Phoenix, AZ
Network/Streaming: Prime Video
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Game Odds: Warriors vs. Suns
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (+130), Phoenix Suns (-155)
Spread: Suns -3.5
Total: 219.5 points
This game opened Suns -3.5 with the Total set at 219.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Warriors vs. Suns
Golden State Warriors
G Stephen Curry
G Brandin Podziemski
C Kristaps Porzingis
SF Gui Santos
PF Draymond Green
Phoenix Suns
G Devin Booker
G Jalen Green
G Jordan Goodwin
SF Dillon Brooks
C Mark Williams
Injury Report: Warriors vs. Suns
Golden State Warriors
Jimmy Butler (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
Moses Moody (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
Quinten Post (foot) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
Phoenix Suns
Mark Williams (foot) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
Grayson Allen (hamstring) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Warriors vs. Suns
The Suns are 25-17 at home this season
The Warriors are 16-26 on the road this season
The Suns are 46-34-3 ATS this season
Golden State is 35-47-1 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 50 of the Warriors’ 83 games this season (50-33)
The OVER has cashed in 38 of the Suns’ 83 games this season (38-45)
Not one Warrior pulled down more than 7 rebounds in the win over the Clippers
Rotoworld Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s Warriors and Suns’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Warriors on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Warriors +3.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Total of 219.5
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!
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With the regular season finally coming to an end on Thursday night, the NHL released the schedule for the first round of the playoffs shortly after midnight. As had been heavily rumored over the last few days, the Montreal Canadiens will kick off their first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday, and it’s fair to say that the schedule leaves something to be desired.
There are three Canadian teams in the spring dance: the Habs, the Ottawa Senators, and the Edmonton Oilers, and none of them will be in action on Saturday night. In a country where hockey is pretty much a religion, with its faithful expecting their weekly sermon on Hockey Night in Canada, the masses will have to make do with a Saturday matinee, a Sunday almost-night, and a late Monday-night game.
The commissioner and the NHL are well aware that Canadian viewers will watch the games whenever and wherever they are set, which means they are focusing their energy on courting the American market; that is why the Philadelphia Flyers and the Pittsburgh Penguins get the primetime Saturday night slot. While it was to be expected, after all, the only two playoff games in Montreal last season took place on a Friday and a Sunday night, it’s still disappointing.
In any case, here is the Canadiens’ (and yours) schedule for the first round:
Game 1: Sunday, April 19, Tampa Bay 5:45 PM Game 2: Tuesday, April 21, Tampa Bay 7:00 PM Game 3: Friday, April 24, Montreal 7:00 PM Game 4: Sunday, April 26, Montreal 7:00 PM *Game 5: Wednesday, April 29, Tampa Bay TBD *Game 6: Friday, May 1, Montreal TBD *Game 7: Sunday, May 3, Tampa Bay TBD * if necessary
Even if the series goes the distance, there won’t be any Saturday night games for the Habs faithful in this first round.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - MARCH 25: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers helps up James Harden #1 during the first half against the Miami Heat at Rocket Arena on March 25, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images
CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Cavaliers played an uninspired first 43 minutes against a tanking Indiana Pacers team that only had nine available players in early April. The final five minutes were different.
Cleveland was up four with five minutes to play before hitting the accelerator. They scored 11 points over the next three minutes to push their lead to 13 as they cruised to what became a stress-free victory.
Controlling the last few minutes has been a trend over the back half of the season. Since the beginning of February, the Cavs have registered the third-best offensive rating (131) and best net rating (+34.6) in clutch situations (when the game is within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime). Before February, Cleveland ranked 23rd in offensive rating and 13th in net rating in that setting.
According to their head coach, there’s one reason for their success: James Harden.
“Give him the ball and get out of the way,” Kenny Atkinson said.
That simple plan has worked. The Cavs had an outrageous 143 offensive rating and a +57.9 net rating in just over 40 clutch minutes Harden has played since the trade. That has resulted in a 13-2 record in clutch-time games during that stretch.
The Cavs have done a good job of incorporating some of Atkinson’s motion-based offense with the traditional, isolation sets that Harden is used to working with. However, at the end of games, they’ve opted to slow the game down and space the floor.
“We do some stuff and some sets, and it’s more him getting the right matchup,” Atkinson said. “We have really worked on our spacing in his iso situations or pick and roll, we have worked on that. But 99% of it is James Harden making the right play.”
The simple and effective plan has worked for the Cavs, but only because the team’s franchise player has been willing to cede control of the offense late.
“A lot of the times I feel like if you want to deny me the ball, go ahead,” Donovan Mitchell said. “This man’s done it for 17 years at the highest level, you know what I mean? And vice versa.”
The two have had conversations about how to best work in the postseason, which shows through in the results. Mitchell pointed to multiple clutch-time plays from earlier this year to prove how those discussions have paid off. The first was from their win over the Golden State Warriors on April 2.
The Warriors were denying Mitchell on the wing, so he allowed Harden to dictate that possession. “James gets to his stuff, hits Evan, Evan hits Max, I cut. That’s one.”
And lastly, Mitchell highlighted the following possession. The defense didn’t blitz Harden, allowing him to take the off-the-dribble three. Sequences like this are possible when you have two elite playmakers. The defense can really only try to take away one.
“Sometimes our best offense is letting him operate and being able to find a way to manipulate the game and trust him that it’s going to be the right play,” Mitchell said.
The spacing is the key to making these three plays work. Harden’s game is built on creating mismatches. Having everyone properly spaced forces the defense to commit to a double or leave individual players on an island. No matter which the defenses chooses the Cavs are betting their talent can win out in the end.
“The spacing is the most important thing,” Harden said, “and once we got the spacing, then everything else should take care of itself, which is very, very key going into the postseason because you’re in late-game situations; you’ve got to make sure you execute.”
“They know he’s got to have the ball,” Atkinson said. “They know where to space. Communicating with them all the time. He’s always communicating with our screeners on what to do. So he’s coaching it too. It’s not just making the plays. He coaches it with the guys out there, which is what the great quarterbacks do.”
Quarterback play often decides tight playoff games in the NFL. While it isn’t a one-to-one comparison here, it’s fair to say that the Cavs didn’t have great quarterback play last postseason. They dropped all three games in the second round against the Pacers that entered a clutch situation. When games got close, the Cavs weren’t able to generate efficient offense. That cost them, especially in Game 2 when they blew a seven-point lead in the final minute and were outscored 36-21 in the fourth quarter.
Harden should help in this equation. Despite his previous playoff shortcomings, he’s at the very least shown he can solve what was previously an issue for the Cavs in the regular season by consistently generating quality looks late in games. That will need to translate over to the playoffs if the Cavs want to reach their goals.
“We’re not going to have our best games [all the time], it’s just natural,” Mitchell said. “No one’s had a perfect playoff run. So when the going gets tough, when you have a guy like him alongside you, you’re very calm. We’re very calm as a group and understand that, hey, we’re going to get the best shot somehow, some way.”
BUFFALO, NEW YORK - MARCH 25: Sam Carrick #10 and Zach Benson #6 of the Buffalo Sabres battle for position in front of Joonas Korpisalo #70 of the Boston Bruins against Mason Lohrei #6 and Fraser Minten #93 during an NHL game on March 25, 2026 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
Spring is in the air and it’s that time of year again: the best part of the season for hockey fans. The first round of the NHL playoffs is one of the top parts of the whole calendar with eight series all simultaneously providing the highs and lows of playoff hockey.
Let’s take a stab at the first round, but given the preseason projections here and everywhere, maybe this is the year to expect the unexpected.
Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic 1) vs. Boston Bruins (Wild Card 1)
It still is surreal that the Sabres are a first place team, emphatically ending a 16-year playoff drought. Their reward for that great season seems like a cruel joke to draw a 100-point Boston Bruins team in the first round. The Bruins’ soft road record (16-16-9) looms large in what undoubtedly will be a beyond fired up, passionate Sabres crowd finally getting a chance to cheer on playoff hockey after all these years. Usually atmospheres and intangibles don’t make a huge difference, but sometimes they do (the mind turns to the rabid Pirates crowd hosting a playoff game as a suitable comparable). Having the home ice advantage could and should be a factor within this series in Buffalo’s benefit, for whatever it ends up being worth.
In the end, I don’t think Boston (14th in the NHL with 3.01 goals/game allowed) is strong enough defensively to slow Buffalo down. The Sabres wagon rolls into the next round, to the delight of a delirious crowd.
Prediction: Sabres in 6
Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic 2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic 3)
Two 106-point teams square off in the first round that could be about a coin flip to find an edge. Tampa profiles as a sort of old guard with several pieces hanging around from their 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup wins. Montreal is the other side of the coin with many great young players hungry to take the next step. Both teams have a ton of firepower, the Nikita Kucherov led Lightning are 4th in the NHL with 3.51 goals per game, the Canadiens with 50-goal man Cole Caufield aren’t far behind in 7th with 3.40 goals/game themselves.
On one hand, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Tampa ended up being the Eastern Conference champions when the smoke clears. On the other hand, I can’t shake that since March 8th Jakub Dobes has a 9-4-0 record with a 2.22 GAA and .924 save% while Andrei Vasilevskiy isn’t exactly playing great lately (12-8-1 record, .899 save% since the Olympic break). I think Montreal has enough speed and skill to make it more competitive than the lopsided betting line would suggest (was seeing it at -250 for Tampa and +205 for Montreal earlier in the week). With much hesitancy and reluctance, I’m smelling an upset brewing.
Prediction: Montreal in 7
Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan 1) vs. Ottawa Senators (Wild Card 2)
This matchup represents a fantastic styles clash. Ottawa was the No. 1 team in the NHL in expected goals against but suffered from some of the worst goaltending in the league. That’s perhaps been rectified somewhat by the stability of Linus Ullmark (with an above average .908 save% in his last 14 games) but still is going to be a shaky proposition until proven otherwise. Their opponent, Carolina, remains the analytic darlings for second in xGoals for and xGoals Share, but struggles at finishing chances (29th, per Hockeystats.com). Who wins the battle between Carolina’s strong generation/weak finishing and Ottawa’s great suppression/bad goaltending will make for some incredible theatre.
Carolina is 6-0 in first rounds under coach Rod Brind’Amour, besides the August COVID bubble playoff of 2020. I don’t see that streak coming to an end this spring, though I really do like this potential matchup for Ottawa. There’s a way if things break differently that they could have a real chance, but in the end I’m going to call it as a series short in games which belies how tight most of the games will be.
Prediction: Carolina in 5
Pittsburgh Penguins (Metropolitan 2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Metropolitan 3)
Two surprise playoff teams from Pennsylvania matchup in what never fails to live up to the hype. We’ve talked a ton about this so to keep it short and sweet, I think the Penguins are better and/or deeper at every place on the ice, also aided by the fact that Pittsburgh is good in the first period (outscoring opponents 93-68 this season) and the Flyers are not (getting outscored 65-68). The Pens are used to being in the lead, having lead the third most minutes in the whole league. The Flyers are used to chasing games, and the playoffs are no time to consistently dig holes. Put yourself in enough holes and someone is bound to bury you, and let’s face it, Sidney Crosby always buries the Flyers as it is. It won’t be a smooth road, Penguins/Flyers is naturally going to have it’s twists and turns along the way but in the end the Pens continue onto the next round.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - APRIL 14: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals throws the ball to get Wenceel Pérez #46 of the Detroit Tigers out at first base during the bottom of the second inning at Comerica Park on April 14, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Earlier this week, the Yankees picked up a split in their series against the Angels, but it was a lot of work to get there. The two wins required ninth inning comebacks, while the two losses were both of the very dumb variety. With that over, the Yankees will remain home and welcome the Royals to town for a weekend matchup.
With the exception of the Dodgers, every team in baseball has gotten off to a middling start to the season, but the Royals sit at the lower end of that. Following a loss on Thursday, they sit at 7-12. Their lineup has been more to blame, as even Bobby Witt Jr. has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. Can the Yankees keep that going, or will we be sitting here Sunday night frustrated at another annoying series? Let’s look at what the pitching matchups might have in store.
Friday: Cam Schlittler vs. Michael Wacha (7:05 pm ET)
After a remarkable first two starts on the season, Schlittler has given up some runs in the last two, albeit both times, it was just three in five innings. The most remarkable stat of all was that a walk he issued in his most recent game against the Rays was the first he issued all season.
The veteran Wacha has gotten off to an incredible start to his age 34 season. In 21 innings across three starts, he’s given up just one run. In his perfectly fine 2025 season, he put up 3.6 fWAR and 3.8 rWAR, and he’s already at 0.6 and 1.1 respectively in 2026. Now, a non-zero amount of that had to do with throwing eight scoreless against a very bad White Sox offense in his last game, but the Yankees’ offense hasn’t covered themselves in glory so far, so we shall see.
Saturday: Will Warren vs. Noah Cameron (1:35 pm ET)
With a 2.45 ERA in his four starts so far, Warren has mostly been perfectly fine so far. That being said, he’s only lasted a full five innings once so far, and he did allowed four unearned runs in his last game. He’s also only issued six walks in 18.1 innings on the season, but if you look at the ball-strike breakdown, he has a habit of letting counts go long. While the Royals haven’t taken a ton of walks, they’ve struck out less than league average, so if he can’t put batters away cleanly and quickly in this one, that could lead to some danger.
Cameron debuted last season and had a very nice campaign, finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. However in his lone game against the Yankees so far, they did tag him for six runs in 5.2 innings last year on June 10th in Kansas City. His stats on 2026 so far are fine, but he has allowed a higher rate of hits so far.
Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Cole Ragans (1:35 pm ET)
Weathers’ 4.29 ERA only grades out as a little worse than league average. However, his start to the season feels way worse than that because he’s been a roller coaster. He has two pretty good starts, including one against the A’s where he gave up just one run in eight inning. However, his two bad starts have been very bad, including getting roughed up by the Angels earlier this week.
After a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2024, Ragans was limited to just 61.2 innings last year due to injury. He appears to be back and healthy this year, but did have to leave a start in the first inning a couple weeks ago after taking a liner to the thumb. His 3.78 ERA grades out as solid, but his 8.6 K/9 rate is way down from where it has been, including in 2024.
On Thursday, former New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson was honored for skating in his 1,000th NHL game when the Colorado Avalanche hosted the Seattle Kraken for their regular-season finale.
He reached the milestone back on Monday against the Edmonton Oilers, in Edmonton.
Former Islanders teammates Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck, and Josh Bailey, along with their wives, were in attendance for the celebration.
During his 1,000-game tribute video, his longtime Islanders' teammates Anders Lee and Ryan Pulock, along with Bo Horvat, had some words for their former No. 29:
bo horvat, ryan pulock, and anders lee congratulating brock nelson on his 1000th game 🥹 pic.twitter.com/WMo4Z8GFxK
Drafted 30th overall at the 2010 NHL Draft, Nelson played 901 regular-season games for the Islanders, recording 574 points (295 goals, 279 assists) over the span of 12 seasons.
Dealt to the Avalanche ahead of the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, Nelson has played 99 games for his new team, recording 78 points (27 goals, 26 assists), scoring 30 goals this season with 32 assists for 65 points.
Nelson and the Avalanche host the Los Angeles Kings, with Game 1 on Sunday, April 19 at 1 PM ET.
Good news: Red Sox fans get to watch the two best starting pitchers in the American League this weekend when the Detroit Tigers come to town.
Bad news: The pitchers miss each other by one game and Boston must find a way to beat the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner.
Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal will each take the mound. Last season, they represented the class of left-handed pitching in the sport. They each set the tone of excellence for their respective rotations.
There’s only one problem: We really have to miss this matchup?
Here are four thoughts on the excellent southpaws before the Tigers and Red Sox begin a four-game set on Marathon weekend.
So Close
Skubal will likely pitch Saturday’s contest against Brayan Bello while Crochet will take the ball for the Red Sox in the Sunday matinee.
Despite spending multiple years in the same division when Crochet pitched for the Chicago White Sox, the stars have only faced off against each other once.
Flashback to Opening Day 2024 and it was the pitchers’ duel baseball deserved. Crochet and Skubal each tossed six strong innings with just eight combined hits allowed and 14 total strikeouts.
The lone run against Crochet came when Andy Ibanez plated Javy Baez on a third-inning sacrifice fly.
Baseball deserves to see this matchup once again, especially as the reigning top-two finishers in last year’s American League Cy Young Award race.
ERA Crusher?
When it’s all said and done, there may be no greater winner from Crochet’s disastrous start against the Minnesota Twins.
The Red Sox starter imploded in the second inning Monday and exited after allowing 10 earned runs to the best team in the American League (so far). That performance ballooned Crochet’s ERA to 7.58 (!!!).
That could take him months to bring that number back down to Earth and legitimately return him to award conversations. Skubal is at 2.22 through his first four starts and could now very easily walk the red carpet to his third consecutive Cy Young win, though other AL contestants will surely arise.
All that in a contract year to boot (more on that later).
Revisiting 2025
Skubal won the Cy Young Award last season with the ERA title (2.22 ERA) and the league-leading WAR (6.5). He won 13 games to Crochet’s 18 (we don’t need to insert the lecture on the declining value of pitcher wins) while the Red Sox ace led the sport with 255 strikeouts and 205.1 innings pitched.
Red Sox Discount?
Boston wasted no time locking in Crochet for the future after acquiring him in a December 2024 trade with the White Sox. In the first week of the 2025 regular season, Crochet signed a six-year, $170 million extension through 2031 with an opt-out after 2030.
Getting the second best starting pitcher in the American League at $28 million per year already feels like a win for the Red Sox. That should resonate even more when Skubal likely breaks the bank in free agency next winter. Extension talks with Detroit seem to be over and Skubal will walk at the perfect time, especially after a potential three-peat Cy Young performance we alluded to early. If he exceeds $40 million per year, the Red Sox can have a rare reason nowadays to pat themselves on the back.
If you are a regular reader of this segment, you have seen this before. The best stats are the stats that can be used for hitting and pitching. Offensive and defensive efficiency is one of those. Today, we are focused on the worst pitching staff in baseball. At least, that is where the Astros ranked coming into Wednesday night’s game. They were last in hits allowed, walks allowed, and home runs allowed. In fact, if we throw in Wednesday night’s game they even led the league in hit by pitches.
I stepped out of the lab on Wednesday to question whether Joe Espada or Dana Brown were on the hot seat. Of course, they have no contract for 2027, so they started the season on the hot seat. I would never fire a manager or executive in April. It was more of a question of what would happen if these trends continue. The general law of statistics is that everything will regress to the mean. Today, I present the big table of how each major league team is doing in defensive efficiency.
In the case of pitching, the lower the number the better. It is a simple accounting of what percentage of base runners score. It is not a perfect accounting. We do not include players that reach on errors, but in this case we are short-circuiting the table to include the total number of runs, total number of base runners, and the defensive efficiency rating for each team. We will go last to first this time around.
Runs
Base Runners
Efficiency
Rays
85
178
.478
Blue Jays
89
204
.436
Nationals
108
249
.434
Astros
113
275
.411
Phillies
86
210
.410
Dbacks
82
202
.406
Cardinals
94
238
.395
Marlins
80
203
.394
Cubs
73
187
.390
White Sox
87
223
.390
Red Sox
81
210
.386
Angels
89
235
.379
Rockies
78
213
.366
Guardians
76
209
.364
Giants
74
206
.359
Brewers
73
204
.358
Mariners
62
179
.346
Mets
71
206
.345
Royals
67
197
.340
Orioles
70
210
.333
Athletics
74
223
.332
Dodgers
57
172
.331
Twins
77
233
.330
Yankees
61
186
.328
Reds
71
218
.326
Braves
59
181
.326
Tigers
61
190
.321
Padres
61
190
.321
Pirates
68
215
.316
Rangers
58
187
.310
Median
73
206
.359
I should go over some basic math before we dive into what it means. Each category stands on its own. So, if you were to take the median for each category and actually do the math, the median would be .354. Some of you are glazing over as you read this, but I know I have some intrepid readers out there that will notice these little things. Kudos to you for noticing.
Let’s start with the good news. The Astros are due for some positive regression on all counts. This team will not be the worst pitching staff in baseball for the whole season. They will surrender fewer hits and they will definitely get their walks down to a more reasonable level. However, the biggest thing is that their defensive efficiency will also approach the league median as well. This is because the entire league will approach the median eventually.
What exactly does this mean? If the Astros had league median efficiency they would have surrendered 99 runs instead of 113. In the early going, this would probably be equivalent to three wins. Suddenly, a 11-9 team would look a lot better than an 8-12 team. Of course, the hitting efficiency would also be closer to the median. So, maybe you would be looking at a .500 team.
The bad news is that getting to the median in hits allowed and walks allowed is not necessarily in the cards. The Astros will get closer to the median, but this might be a below average pitching staff with all of the injuries. This is mainly about efficiency. You will notice the numbers are over the board in terms of runs scored and base runners. The Rays are one of the better pitching staffs in terms of base runners. They are off the charts in a negative way.
So, in the end, the Astros have been bad, but they have also been unlucky. So, even if they continue to be bad, they will still improve overall due to a regression to the mean. They will eventually get there when health stabilizes and when they move to a more conventional rotation with AAAA type of starters to replace the injured ones.
We will revisit these numbers later in the year, so we should keep these in the back of our mind. You will see the numbers tightening and the Astros improve overall as the season goes along. The other good news is that teams like the Rangers will get worse. On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Do you agree?
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Jacob Melton #29 of the Tampa Bay Rays bats during the first inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Mets at Clover Park on March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Jacob Melton was acquired by the Rays as the centerpiece in the Brandon Lowe trade. He brings a high-impact toolset: fringe 70 power, plus defense across all three outfield spots (including center field), and above-average speed.
Through his first 15 games with Triple-A Durham, that hasn’t translated to production. Melton is currently running a 74 wRC+. Why would someone with a strong track record of upper-minors performance be struggling in AAA?
There are a few reasons for this. First, it’s likely just random variance in a small sample. It’s not even May yet, there’s no need to be concerned. Another reason is that Melton is currently undergoing an adjustment to his approach, so his early struggles may be less about regression and more about recalibration.
Damage on contact
In order to get the most out of his profile as a power hitter, Melton needs to ensure he’s consistently hitting the ball at optimal angles. He has seen year-over-year improvement in his SLG on contact (SLGcon), measured per “BBE” (Batted Ball Event, e.g. anytime a bat makes contact with the ball).
2024: .560 (127 BBE)
2025: .729 (97 BBE)
2026: .750 (22 BBE)
League average SLGcon in AAA typically sits in the mid to upper 500s each season, so we can see that he has gone from accessing his power from an average rate to a well above average rate so far this season. His launch angle (LA) distribution helps explain why.
Analyzing LAs in buckets adds an important layer than is often overlooked when one exclusively considers average LA. Categorizing LAs in groups paints a more detailed picture of a player’s batted ball distribution – something we can see with Melton’s LA buckets below:
It’s too small of a sample so far in 2026 to say that the data will be the same for the rest of the season, but the trends are more important than the exact numbers. Melton is getting into line drive and fly ball angles more consistently, and his hardest contact is coming at optimal angles for damage too. His average hardhit LA has climbed from just 9 degrees in 2024 to 19 degrees so far in 2026. I’d expect those improved angles to translate to more in-game production over a larger sample, but that production comes with a trade-off.
Next steps
Melton is whiffing significantly more this season as a result of his shift in approach. In many ways, this looks like a deliberate trade-off: sacrificing contact to unlock more impactful contact. After maintaining a solid 23.4 whiff% across 2024 and 2025 in AAA, it has significantly increased to 41.4% this season. That level of swing-and-miss would be difficult to sustain at the major league level.
Melton can hedge against this by improving his swing decisions and figuring out a two-strike approach. The two data points I’ll be following are his zone-minus-out-of-zone (Z-O) swing% with less than two strikes and his whiff% with two strikes.
He’ll need to be selective and disciplined to maintain his plus damage on contact. His Z-O swing% so far this year is a 38.9%. This number is currently better than average but getting it closer to 40% and higher would be ideal for Melton’s profile. It appears that he’s doing well in this area so far.
His two-strike approach is less polished as Melton is currently whiffing on 53.7% of pitches with two strikes. One possible adjustment is incorporating more opposite-field intent in two-strike counts. That would allow him to see the ball deeper and naturally shorten his swing, which could help reduce swing-and-miss. Importantly, this kind of situational adjustment wouldn’t necessarily come at the expense of his improved damage on contact.
Those two markers – early-count swing decisions and two-strike whiff rate – will be key to monitor as he works toward impacting the major league roster later this season and pushing for a role in 2027.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 14: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a RBI single against the New York Mets in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on April 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last season, a corner outfielder wearing the jersey no. 23 got off to a rough start in his first year as a Dodgers. This season, a shiny new corner outfielder wearing no. 23 has gotten off to an equally frustrating start.
Kyle Tucker was signed to be that impact corner outfielder at the top of the Dodgers lineup, and he is still an upgrade over the maligned Michael Conforto, who now finds himself struggling in Tucker’s old stomping grounds from the year prior. Tucker has demonstrated a remarkable eye at the plate, as reflected in a 15 percent walk rate that ranks 33rd out of 189 qualified hitters, but he has just three extra-base hits on the season with a slugging percentage at .343. His strikeout rate and chase rate are both uncharacteristically high to begin the season as well.
Tucker attributed his recent poor performances with being a bit too selective on his swing, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com, as he has struggled with adjusting his approach in unfavorable counts.
“Sometimes you just find yourself chasing more, you just have to try and just narrow your zone a little bit and look in certain parts in the zone, rather than just like swinging at whatever’s thrown,” Tucker said. “So I just try to do my best with that and just try to hone on that, and kind of pick my spots on locations where I want and just try to be early with it and try to do a little better job of that.”
Tucker did end the recent homestand on a positive note, delivering the go-ahead hit on Tuesday and drilling a home run in his final at-bat on Wednesday after lining a ball 107 miles per hour off the bat in his previous appearance. As the Dodgers prepare to open a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, a stadium that ranks first in park factor this year, the four-time All-Star is starting to find his footing at the right time.
Links
Wednesday was an atypical night for Shohei Ohtani, as it marked the first time that he only took the mound instead of both pitching and hitting in a Dodgers uniform. Fans were still treated to a spectacle from the reigning two-time NL MVP, as he delivered six full innings on one-run ball while striking out a season-high 10 Mets hitters.
The decision to have Ohtani strictly pitch on Wednesday was a precautionary move by Dave Roberts, as Ohtani had been plunked on the shoulder by David Peterson on Monday and is hitless since. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that this will not become a recurring theme on Ohtani’s start days.
‘“If he wouldn’t have gotten hit, he would’ve DH’d today,” he said. “So I just think in this one game, it just makes more sense to give him the best chance to kind of manage the shoulder and the back.
“I think that it’s something I’m going to keep an eye on if it makes sense but not just kind of do it proactively. … It’s got to make sense to not have your best hitter not in the lineup.”
Dylan Hernández of the California Post writes about Edwin Díaz’s knee issues that kept him out for the majority of the homestand. As noted earlier this week, Díaz’s availability for Wednesday’s game was dependent on how his pregame bullpen session fared. He was warming up in the bullpen during the eighth inning on Wednesday, and he would’ve entered the ninth inning for a chance to face his former team had Dalton Rushing not put the score out of reach.
BOSTON - APRIL 26: Miroslav Satan #81 of the Boston Bruins celebrates his game winning goal in the third period against the Buffalo Sabres in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Garden on April 26, 2010 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Bruins defeated the Sabres 4-3 to win the series. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After the regular season officially concluded late on Thursday night, the NHL finally released the full schedule for the first round series between YOUR Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres.
Bruins vs. Sabres schedule
As you know, the Sabres are the higher seed and will have home-ice advantage in the first round. Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 will be in Buffalo, with games 3, 4, and 6 at TD Garden.
Game 1: Sunday, April 19, 7:30 PM
Game 2: Tuesday, April 21, 7:30 PM
Game 3: Thursday, April 23, 7 PM
Game 4: Sunday, April 26, 2 PM
Game 5: Tuesday, April 28, TBD
Game 6: Friday, May 1, TBD
Game 7: Sunday, May 3, TBD
Bruins vs. Sabres TV channels
While the NHL website doesn’t specify this, a release from the Bruins confirms that all first round games will be broadcast on NESN locally.
This is in keeping with the usual tradition/contractual obligations, where teams’ regular season broadcasters get the first round before everything moves to national channels in the second round.
As you can see below, these games will still be broadcast on the national channels as well, but should be available on good ol’ NESN in the New England area.
Game 1: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVAS
Game 2: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVAS
Game 3: NESN, TNT, TruTV, HBO Max, SN360, TVAS
Game 4: NESN, TNT, TruTV, HBO Max, SN360, TVAS
Game 5: NESN, TBD
Game 6: NESN, TBD
Game 7: NESN, TBD
Bruins vs. Sabres radio broadcast schedule
Per the B’s, Games 1 through 4 are confirmed to be broadcast on 98.5 The Sports Hub, with “TBD” after that.
Normally, the games being on 98.5 would be, to use an appropriate metaphor, a lay-up.
However, Celtics games are also broadcast on 98.5 The Sports Hub, and their first round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers will conflict with the Bruins-Sabres series on:
Tuesday, April 21
Sunday, April 26
Tuesday, April 28
(Both teams have games on Sunday, April 19, as well, but the Celtics game is at 1 PM.)
As things look at the moment, it will be the Celtics who get bumped to 105.7 FM, with the B’s remaining on 98.5.
I know the formatting for this post is a little annoying, but…SEO, Apple News, etc. You get the idea.
Overall, this is a pretty standard schedule for the B’s, though the series does have two built-in back-to-back days off, which can help both teams during a rough-and-tumble playoff series.
A Sunday afternoon home playoff game at TD Garden should be a pretty fun atmosphere.
I’d imagine the Bruins-Sabres series should be near the top of the league leaderboard when it comes to eyeballs watching on TV in the United States, maybe only rivaled by the Flyers-Penguins series.
The Bruins always draw well on TV, and Buffalo is a leading “playoffs-on-TV” market even when the Sabres aren’t involved, so you can imagine how much the interest will spike with them back in the mix.
NHL playoff bracket challenge
Loyal SCOC reader tupty set up a Bracket Challenge over on the NHL website. For those unfamiliar, it’s basically like a March Madness bracket, where you pick your teams, series scores, etc.
The New York Knicks can take solace that Trae Young is nowhere to be found in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks, and thus, Knicks fans don't have a chance to spit on him because he was torching their team.
Young is in a Washington Wizards uniform after a January trade, but when he was in Atlanta five years ago, he single-handedly led the Hawks to a five-game drubbing of the Knicks, leading to more postseason dread for New York.
Nothing has changed in the big picture for the Knicks, who are seeking their first Finals appearance since 1999, and welcome the visiting Hawks to kick off the best-of-seven series.
Here is a breakdown of the Knicks-Hawks series:
How the Knicks can advance
Of course, Jalen Brunson wasn't on the Knicks roster in 2021 and joined the team the next offseason after leaving the Dallas Mavericks and signing a four-year, $104 million free-agent contract.
The Knicks' playoff fortunes begin and end with Brunson, the reigning Clutch Player of the Year, so it is imperative that he gets going early and also gets his teammates involved. That means Karl Anthony Towns needs to be aggressive on both ends of the floor, and in his two games this season against the Hawks, he averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds. But the bench is the X-factor for New York, which ranked third in offensive efficiency and fifth in 3-point percentage, and can generally go nine or 10 deep during the postseason, which might give them an advantage the longer the series goes on.
New York, winners of 53 games, played at a faster pace and hoisted more 3-pointers this season than under predecessor Tom Thibodeau. But one disadvantage is that, looking ahead to Boston, a healthy Jayson Tatum could be staring them right in the face in the second round.
How the Hawks can advance
Atlanta has played outstanding basketball over the last two months, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them advance out of this round.
Their defense must be elite, and the Hawks have a top-10 defense, just like the Knicks, who are more than capable of turning stingy defense into instant offense. Job number one for Atlanta is to stop Brunson on the offensive end and make him a liability on defense, using their guards' height advantage. They must also win the rebounding battle and pound the ball inside, as New York's lack of rim presence, especially shot blocking, can be used to their advantage.
Jalen Johnson has turned into a star, averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game, and teaming with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a nearly 21-point-per-game scorer, the Knicks will have their hands full against one of the best distributing teams in the league. The addition of Jonathan Kuminga should help, especially when Atlanta struggles in the half-court. But the Hawks must run the Knicks out of the gym to have a chance, but they might not have the offensive firepower to stay in the series.
Prediction: Knicks in five
Knicks vs hawks Series schedule: TV, stream information
Game 1: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, April 18, 6 p.m., Prime Video
Game 2: Atlanta at New York, Monday, April 20, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
Game 3: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 23, 7 p.m., Prime Video
Game 4: New York at Atlanta, Saturday, April 25, 6 p.m., NBC
Game 5: Atlanta at New York, Tuesday, April 28, TBD, (if necessary)
Game 6: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 30, TBD (if necessary)
Game 7: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, May 2, TBD (if necessary)
ASSEN, NETHERLANDS - APRIL 17: Alex Lowes of Great Britain riding bimota KB998 Rimini bimota by Kawasaki Racing Team competes in the practice sessions during the Pirelli Dutch Round (Round 3) of the WorldSBK or SBK FIM Superbike World Championship at TT Assen Circuit on April 17, 2026 in Assen, Netherlands. (Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images) | Getty Images
All four Rangers affiliates scored double digits yesterday. Yes, even Hub City.
Hickory starter Jormy Nivar allowed one run in four innings, striking out four and walking one.
Paulino Santana was 2 for 5 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was had a hit and a walk. Marcos Torres was 2 for 3 with two walks and three stolen bases. Hector Osorio was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, two walks, and three stolen bases. Josh Springer had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks. Esteban Mejia was 3 for 5.
Hub City starter J’Briell Easley threw two shutout innings, striking out three. Anthony Susac struck out two in 2.1 scoreless.
Maxton Martin tripled and drew two walks. Gleider Figuereo was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk. Malcolm Moore drew a walk. Chandler Pollard drew a pair of walks.
Dane Acker started for Round Rock and gave up five runs in 2.1 IP, walking four and striking out one. Emiliano Teodo allowed an unearned run in 1.2 IP, walking one and striking out two. Thomas Ireland, apparently sent to Round Rock as a filler arm after the Express lost Cal Quantrill, Gavin Collyer and Marc Church from their pitching staff yesterday, struck out three, walked two and allowed one run in three innings. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a two run homer in two innings, striking out one.
Justin Foscue had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.
We’re about 24 hours away from game one! Before the Minnesota Timberwolves begin on their postseason quest, let’s review their performance throughout the 82-game regular season. We had 42 voters chime in on their player grades as well as what they think will happen in the playoffs in…
(Note: Canis Pulsus Vol. 48 data was collected through 4/15)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 5: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves smiles after the game against the Charlotte Hornets on April 5, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Ant finishes the season with an A- grade, right around where he was all season. It feels like while Edwards leveled up in certain areas of his game, while there’s still some glaring holes in other areas. Worst of all, this was the most amount of games he’s missed in a season. He missed 21 games with a good chunk of those coming near the end of the season. As they say, the Wolves will only go as far as Ant can take them.
Full voting results:
Julius Randle
B (33.3% each)
Quarter 1: B+ (38.2%) Semester 1: A / B+ (31.9% each) Quarter 3: B (28%)
If you had to plot Julius Randle’s effectiveness throughout the season, it would look like a damn seismograph. High peaks early, immediately turning into low valleys, spiking up and down the rest of the way. Randle almost got the Andrew Wiggins “The Best Ability to Availability” award had he not been shut down for the final three games of the season for rest. His Hyde and Jekyll tendencies will be a huge factor in the postseason.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – MARCH 25: Jaden McDaniels #3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the Houston Rockets in the third quarter at Target Center on March 25, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Rockets 110-108 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It felt like Jaden was having a career-best season, especially early on. Despite some regression later in the year, Slim still finished with career-highs in scoring, shooting, and playmaking. The consistency must improve if he truly wants to emerge as that long-term second star next to Ant that many are hoping for. Perhaps most importantly, his mental game must keep improving. We had a fair share of “Jaden getting lost in the game” due the return of foul issues or other shenanigans.
Full voting results:
Rudy Gobert
B+ (31%)
Quarter 1: B+ (35.3%) Semester 1: A (33.3%) Quarter 3: A (28%)
Rudy finished the season as the league-leader in field goal percentage. He was fairly consistent and reliable as that “floor raiser” the Wolves have become used to. Gobert will surely end up on another All-Defensive team after a solid season. Opponents keep trying him in isolation situations, and they keep failing. Rudy did struggle at the charity stripe this season though, reverting to his first sub-60% season in 10 years.
Full voting results:
Donte DiVincenzo
B (35.7%)
Quarter 1: B (35.3%) Semester 1: B (34.7%) Quarter 3: B+ (36%)
The real Mr. 82 has been solidly “good” all season. Sometimes great, sometimes not so much, but for the most part, consistent. Donte saw a spike in playing time this season, averaging a career-high 30.4 minutes per game. He launched and sank more three-pointers than he did in his first season with Minnesota, but the efficiency has ticked down at all three levels. No matter how his stroke is feeling, the Big Ragu always is going to put his body on the line and make the hustle plays.
Full voting results:
DALLAS, TEXAS – MARCH 30: Ayo Dosunmu #13 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on during the third quarter of the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on March 30, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Ayo Dosunmu
A (42.9%)
Quarter 3: B+ (28%)
Ayo received the highest grade of any player and it’s much deserved. In just 26 games with the Wolves, Dosunmu notched 14.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on elite shooting splits (.521/.414/.925). He has simply been amazing and will hopefully be a part of the Timberwolves organization for a long, long time. He’s truly one of the biggest X-factors for Minnesota in their postseason run.
What a rollercoaster of a season it’s been for Naz. It began with a really tough start to the season on the heels of a heart-breaking family tragedy. He eventually found his form as the year progressed, but has been dealing with a bevy of injuries recently. Naz is trying to get right before the postseason starts because he will play a big role in Minnesota’s success.
Full voting results:
DETROIT, MI – APRIL 2: Kyle Anderson #12 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball during the game against the Detroit Pistons on April 2, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Kyle Anderson
B+ (31.7%)
The Wolves welcomed back their Chinese-Jamaican King! SlowMo has been deployed early and often by Coach Finch. After playing just 24 of 57 possible games this season between Utah and Memphis, Anderson played in 19 of 21 possible games with Minnesota. He’s picked up almost exactly where he left off on the defensive end of the court. You can bet he’s going to see the court during the postseason.
Full voting results:
Mike Conley
C- (28.6%)
Quarter 1: C (29.4%) Semester 1: C- (23.9%) Quarter 3: C (30.6%)
Minnesota Mike played in 46 of the Wolves first 60 games, which included a 2-3 week vacation during the NBA trade deadline. Then he essentially received 12 straight healthy scratches after that. Conley has since found opportunities on the court amid Minnesota’s injury spell, and he has taken advantage of those opportunities. Most importantly, he’s hit 45.2% of his three-pointers after shooting just 31.1% earlier in the season. Can he have one more magic (Mike) moment in the playoffs?
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – MARCH 25: Bones Hyland #8 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates against the Houston Rockets in the third quarter at Target Center on March 25, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Rockets 110-108 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Bones has been a revelation for the Wolves this year. Not quite as consistent or versatile as the other half of Twin Turbos, Hyland has provided much-needed bench scoring amid Naz Reid’s struggles. He’s having the most efficient season scoring the ball and is a spark plug that galvanizes both his teammates and fans. The Skelly Celly has also taken a grip around all of Minnesota.
There were a lot of high hopes for Clark County’s role this year. The defensive hole that Nickeil Alexander-Walker left behind was one that many thought Clark could step into, and despite some early season success, has found himself in a bit of a doghouse. Finch has only played Jaylen in 14 of the team’s final 22 games, and under 10 minutes in half of those games. The infamous stat of the Wolves record when Clark plays 15 minutes of more concludes at 20-5, for now.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – APRIL 12: Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 reacts as Joe Ingles #7 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans in the fourth quarter at Target Center on April 12, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Pelicans 132-126. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
TJ Shannon, similar to Clark, was expected to have a significant role with the Wolves this season. Unfortunately, he floundered early. He received just a C+ grade for the Quarter 1 Progress Report, then went missing in action due to a nagging foot injury for the next two quarters of the season. Shannon finished with a bang in this final quarter. Well, more like his final three games, where he averaged 27.3 points on 55.6% shooting from the floor. TJ sunk 3.3 threes and 7.3 free throws during that stretch, just a glimpse of his full potential.
The 19-year-old Frenchman appeared in 40 regular season games, but just double-digit minutes in seven of those games. Finch has been very selective with how he’s deployed the rookie much to the fans chagrin. There’s been enough flashes to be optimistic about his near-term and long-term future. Joan dominated by averaging a double-double in 11 G League games with Iowa, so hopefully we can see him continue next season with Minnesota.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MN. – APRIL 2026: Minnesota Timberwolves forward Joe Ingles (7) basket in the second quarter at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, final regular season game. (Photo by Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images) | Star Tribune via Getty Images
Joe Ingles played basketball! Well, 5.7 minutes in 27 games may not seem like much, that’s actually more than the 19 games he appeared in a season ago. Joe is always bringing the good vibes and as the kids say, “Unc still got it!” In his only non-garbage time game of the season, Ingles posted 15 points, 6 boards, and 10 assists against the Pelicans in game 82! A+ for Joe.
The three two-way players and Julian Phillips each had strong seasons and performances with the Iowa Wolves, helping them end their 11-year playoff drought. They didn’t have any true opportunities to play a meaningful role with the Timberwolves, but if you want to hear more about their seasons, check out my Iowa Wolves coverage.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – APRIL 07: Head coach Chris Finch of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on April 07, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Every year, we hear the “Fire Finch” chants. Every year, he proves how silly that would’ve been. This hasn’t been a banner regular season for Chris Finch, but is it all his fault? There’s fervent voices on both sides of this argument, but he has notched the same record with the Wolves as he did last season. There’s been considerably more injuries and roster losses, though many still thought Minnesota should’ve taken a step forward.
Full voting results:
Front office
A (28.6%)
Quarter 1: B (29.4%) Semester 1: A- (31.9%) Quarter 3: A (28.6%)
The front office did a great job at the trade deadline and putting together the Twin Turbos. Hindsight always makes it easy to nitpick though. Choosing Naz over NAW. Choosing Rob Dillingham. But in the meantime, the Wolves still have a lot of value on their roster and have the opportunity to keep the core together long-term this summer. There may be a lot of changes in the offseason, but Tim Connelly has done well once again.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MN. – APRIL 2026 Kevin Garnett acknowledges the crowd at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Behind Garnett is his daughter Kavalli. The Hall of Fame forward and all-time franchise leader in nearly every major statistical category walked into the arena after player introductions, receiving a roar from the crowd and patting his heart with his hand. Garnett, who had a falling out with previous owner Glen Taylor after his career was over, reached an agreement last year with the team to serve as an ambassador. His No. 21 jersey will be retired at a later date. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, final regular season game. (Photo by Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images) | Star Tribune via Getty Images
Ownership
A (26.8% each)
Quarter 1: B (26.5%) Semester 1: A (31.9%) Quarter 3: A / B+ (20% each)
Wolves fans finally got to enjoy the return of Kevin Garnett at Target Center. It was a beautiful night of basketball with a ton of highlights from the young guys and good vibes all around. Ownership has done their part to make fans enjoy the overall experience this season, but they may need to consider how to get them in the seats with the decline of attendance and rising prices.
Full voting results:
What will be the result of the round one Denver Nuggets matchup?
Wolves in 7 (28.6%)
The result is not too surprising with just 59.5% of voters going with the Timberwolves. There was a dueling pair of 21.4% of votes for Wolves in 6 and Nuggets in 6. Either way, fans are expecting a long and drawn out series between two teams who are 14-14 against each other in all-time postseason games.
Full voting results:
The key for the Timberwolves to defeat the Nuggets is…
Defense and limiting Jamal Murray
More than half the responses included locking in on the defensive end and limiting the non-Jokić players, particularly Jamal Murray. In his four regular season matchups against Minnesota this year, Murray averaged 31.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. That’s pretty good. The Wolves cannot simply rely on one of two players to slow him down though, as it will be a total team effort.
My hot take from the Wolves-Nuggets series is…
No ice packs will be harmed this time around
In case you forgot, Jamal Murray threw objects onto the court from the bench during a live play that could’ve severely injured players, yet received nothing but a fine.
I was glad to see there was a voter who felt certain that this wouldn’t be the case this time. Some other interesting answers included:
Jokic will not get a triple double
TJ Shannon will provide solid bench scoring
Jaden McDaniels will average more than 20 points per game
Ayo will be too much for Denver to handle
Kyle Anderson will have a triple-double
Jamal Murray crashes out
Chris Finch will get out coached again and his seat will be burning hot
Core vs non-core for next season will become obvious
DENVER, COLORADO – MARCH 1: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates the win against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on March 1, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the regular season over, my feelings on the direction of the Timberwolves are…
Slightly optimistic (61.9%)
Preseason: Very optimistic (63.3%) Quarter 1: Slightly optimistic (61.8%) Semester 1: Very optimistic (70.8%) Quarter 3: Slightly optimistic (54%)
There’s reason to not be overly optimistic considering the difficult task Minnesota has ahead of them. This iteration of the Wolves hasn’t stormed the league, but anything is possible in the playoffs. Will Ant, Jaden, and Naz be at close to full health? Will a fully rested Julius pay dividends? How about the debut of playoff Ayo and Twin Turbos)? There’s plenty of questions ahead.
Full voting results:
The Minnesota Timberwolves finish the season with a 3.19 GPA, just a slight dip from their 3.26 third quarter grades. That’s still an improvement from the 3.05 they finished with last season! Thank you to all who have participated.
There’s a strange, almost cruel symmetry to the way this first-round series between the Rockets and the Lakers has taken shape.
Three weeks ago, the Lakers looked like one of the NBA’s best teams, on the precipice of making a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, the Rockets were stumbling through March grasping for something to hold onto.
Now the roles have reversed, violently.
The Lakers limp into the postseason missing their top two scorers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves — that’s nearly 60 points per game gone like smoke.
There’s a strange, almost cruel symmetry to the way this first-round series between the Rockets and the Lakers has taken shape. Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesNow the roles have reversed, violently. Getty Images
The Rockets enter the playoffs soaring, winners of nine of their last 10 games. They’ve rediscovered their identity, and it starts and ends on the defensive end.
The Lakers will try to hold onto the rope long enough for their two stars to try to come back later in the series. Until then, here are some of the matchups to look for:
LeBron vs the Machine
The Lakers’ only chance of getting past Houston without Doncic and Reaves hangs on the back of a 41-year-old LeBron James.
Houston won’t treat him like a king. The Rockets will treat him like the head of the snake. Stop him and let the role players try to beat you. Unfortunately for the Lakers, Houston has a lot of players on its roster who can do that.
Let’s start with Amen Thompson — long, relentless and unapologetically physical. He finished fifth for NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, and we expect another top-five finish this year. Thompson will take on the assignment of guarding James straight up at times, stripping away the need for help defense thereby allowing the rest of the players to stay home on their assignments.
When Thompson’s not on LeBron, the Rockets can also throw 6-foot-11 forward Jabari Smith Jr. on him with his over 7-foot wingspan. If they want a different look, Houston coach Ime Udoka can also put 6-8 physical forward Tari Eason on him.
The Lakers’ only chance of getting past Houston without Doncic and Reaves hangs on the back of a 41-year-old LeBron James. NBAE via Getty Images
Alperen Sengun vs DeAndre Ayton: The Battle Beneath
In a series defined by perimeter defenders and NBA legends, the most important matchup in the series might happen in the paint.
Turkish big man Alperen Sengun is now a fulcrum. He’s a two-time All-Star and a problem in the paint who demands constant attention. The assignment of guarding him belongs to former No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton.
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In his first season with the purple and gold, Ayton has been inconsistent, his focus and effort drifting at times — until recently. The last six weeks have offered a glimpse into what he can be when he’s engaged, physical, present and focused.
Ayton has the most difficult assignment of any Lakers player. Rebound everything. Keep the Rockets off the offensive glass. Contain Sengun as much as he can, be the rim defender when the Lakers switch to a zone defense and run the pick and roll with James and Luke Kennard in order to make a dent on offense as well.
The assignment of guarding him belongs to former No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton. Getty Images
Different Defensive Looks and Disruption
Not an individual matchup, but we expect the Lakers to give the Rockets different looks on defense throughout the series. The team frustrated its opponents throughout the season by switching to a zone defense during games. We expect some zone looks in this series as well.
Houston isn’t a strong 3-point shooting team outside of Reed Sheppard, which could allow the Lakers to play zone sometimes and dare the Rockets to beat them from distance. They also want to disrupt passing lanes, force turnovers and blitz Kevin Durant. Blitzing Durant when he had the ball worked in their last two matchups in Houston. In their first matchup March 16, they erased a six-point halftime deficit by blitzing Durant and holding him scoreless the entire second half until a last-second layup in garbage time.
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The Rockets have one of the slowest paces of play and will want to slow down the game and grind it to a halt in the half court. The Lakers, meanwhile, need chaos and to get out in transition. Quick strikes before the Rockets’ defense can even set up.
Houston will need Sheppard’s 3-point shooting in this series, but when he’s on the floor, look for LeBron and the Lakers to hunt him on defense. Drag him into screens. Force switches. Attack.
Not an individual matchup, but we expect the Lakers to give the Rockets different looks on defense throughout the series. Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: The Last of the Mohicans
Durant is the quiet storm that hovers over this series. Houston’s elite perimeter defenders allow Durant to expend his energy on the offensive end of the floor, where he can take over entire games.
The Lakers will likely throw the smaller Marcus Smart and stronger Rui Hachimura at him, hoping the combination can disrupt his rhythm. LeBron will even guard him at times as well. Help will inevitably come. It has to. But every second defender you throw at Durant allows someone else to be wide open.
If Houston finds those players and they make those shots, the Lakers are in big trouble.
Expect James to have the ball in his hands most of the time on offense, hunting mismatches and forcing Houston to make tough decisions. On defense, LeBron will lurk, providing help on Durant.
This might be the final chapter between LeBron and Durant and who wins the individual battles could be the player who leads his team to victory in the series.
Game 1 on Saturday will go a long way to decide who will win the series. Both teams will try to set the tempo early and impose their will. Houston has the momentum, the depth and the defense that travels.
The Lakers have LeBron, shooting and the hope that if they hold onto the rope long enough, Doncic and Reaves can return to rescue them later in the series.
