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Dylan Cease and his AL-leading strikeout stuff headline the series opener in Seattle, and I’m riding the Toronto Blue Jays ace.

The Blue Jays open a weekend series in Seattle riding high after a nine-run Canada Day romp, and they hand the ball to Dylan Cease against the Seattle Mariners and Luis Castillo.

Cease has been overpowering lately, and a Mariners lineup that hasn’t seen much of him sets up my favorite play of the night.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, July 3 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions

Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet: Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts (+120)

Dylan Cease is a push away from what feels like one of the best pitching seasons in Toronto Blue Jays history. The right-hander has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, a triple-digit fastball, a wipeout breaking ball, and an AL-leading 128 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.

That 13.8 K/9 usually carries him over his strikeout number, and he’s punched out eight or more in seven of his last eight starts. The one thing that trips him up is command, like last time out against the Texas Rangers, when he walked five.

I’m confident the ace settles back in against a Seattle Mariners lineup that ranks 20th in the majors at 8.64 strikeouts per game and hasn’t seen much of him. 

Julio Rodriguez has just two career at-bats against Cease, and Josh Naylor owns a modest .640 OPS in 25 at-bats.

I’d play this until even money, so make sure you’re getting it at +100 or longer.

COVERS INTEL:  That strikeout surge is powered by a deadly slider (+11 run value, per Baseball Savant), against which opposing hitters own just a .159 average and .215 slugging.

Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 against the Mariners, including an epic seven-game ALCS last fall to reach the World Series, and they’re rolling off that Canada Day blowout. 

I like Over 7 total runs, too, backing Toronto to break through against Luis Castillo. 

And Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts anchors it, especially with the extra off day helping him work deeper and rein in his command.

Blue Jays vs Mariners SGP

• Over 7 
• Blue Jays moneyline
• Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Mariners home run pick: Sean Keys (+790)

Bet on Sean Keys and turn the ignition. The Blue Jays rookie announced his arrival with a massive three-run homer on Canada Day, giving the fan base a well-deserved jolt of energy.

We don’t have much of a sample through 12 MLB at-bats, but the 23-year-old went deep 21 times in 67 minor-league games before his call-up, so the pop is very real.

Keys draws a nice matchup against Mariners starter Castillo. His first big-league homer came on a hard, outside fastball from Freddy Peralta, and Castillo is another fastball-heavy arm. 

Play this one north of +700, and keep it to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Blue Jays -130 | Mariners +110
• Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Mariners trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight games at T-Mobile Park, a friendly backdrop for another road win in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and game info

Blue Jays vs Mariners latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Mariners weather

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The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight consecutive games yet are not favored against a sub .500 Houston team.

My Rays vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks believe that is for good reason, and see value in backing the home side.

Who will win Rays vs Astros today: Houston Astros (-110)

Nick Martinezowns an unfathomably low 18.9% ground ball rateover the last 30 days. He can’t keep the ball on the ground, and he’s leaking oil as a result.

Martinez conceded at least three earned runs in four of five starts during that stretch.

The Houston Astros are equipped to exploit his struggles, ranking seventh in FB% and tied for 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching since June 1.

If Spencer Arrighetti stabilizes as he should (he owns a 9 ERA the past month despite a 3.8 xFIP), the Astros should win.

Back Houston to -120.

COVERS INTEL:Nick Martinez ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA, indicating he has not pitched nearly as well as his 2.66 ERA suggests.

Rays vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)

The Tampa Bay Rays have a potent offense but it lacks power, particularly on the road. No team has posted a lower ISO, or hit fewer home runs, in away games when facing right-handed pitching.

Arrighetti has struggled with the long ball, allowing three homers in back-to-back games. This is a spot where he should be able to limit power, as he’s done effectively for the majority of the season.

Martinez has allowed only 0.87 homers per nine innings in away games while walking just 4.2% of batters. Those outputs put a ceiling on opposing offenses.

Bet to -130.

Rays vs Astros weather

The Houston Astros play in a rarely opened dome so hot temperatures should have little to no impact on this game.

Rays vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Rays -110 | Astros -110
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Rays vs Astros trend

Houston has hit the moneyline in 24 of the last 40 games (+7.90 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros.

How to watch Rays vs Astros and game info

Rays vs Astros latest injuries

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Major League Baseball announced today that Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield has been selected as the National League’s Rookie of the Month for June.

The award is especially notable given that Rumfield also earned the accolade in May. He is the first player to win National League Rookie of the Month in consecutive months since Atlanta’s Michael Harris II in August and September 2022.

The rookie has had a remarkable season. He appeared in 26 games for the Rockies in June. During that time, he slashed .316/.400/.589, including 14 runs scored, nine doubles, one triple, five home runs, and 17 RBI. In addition, he led all qualified National League rookies in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles (9), extra-base hits (15) and total bases (56). Rumfield ranked among National League rookies in hits (30, T-1st), home runs (T-1st), walks (12, 2nd) and runs scored (14, T-3rd).

His 2026 slashline is .293/.373/.487.

Rumfield’s defensive work has been equally stellar. In 594.0 innings at first base, he has committed only two errors. He currently has 6 DRS and 2 OAA. His DRS total is the best in MLB among first basemen.

In May, Rumfield became the ninth Rockies player to receive the Rookie of the Month Award. In doing this, he joins Nolan Jones (September/October 2023), Antonio Senzatela (April 2017), Trevor Story (April 2016), Ian Stewart (July 2008), Troy Tulowitzki (August 2007), Garrett Atkins (June 2005), Clint Barmes (April 2005), and Jason Jennings (August 2002).

Rumfield came to the Rockies in January in a trade with the New York Yankees that sent RHP Angel Chivilli to the Bronx.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Andrew Williamson scouting report.

The 2026 is less than two weeks away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson.

Andrew Williamson is a 6’, 195 lb. lefthanded hitting outfielder for Central Florida. Williamson was undrafted in 2023 coming out of St. Petersburg, Florida. He turns 21 later this month.

Williamson is a well-rounded player who has a good but not great hit tool. There are some concerns about him having a hitch at the plate that could lead to timing issues in the pros, though its not seemed to have affected him so far as an amateur. BA says he makes good swing decisions but has some pitch recognition issues that will need to be improved upon. Despite not being especially big, Williamson has good power, particularly to the pull side. He’s described by MLB Pipeline as having a quick swing with quality bat speed.

Williamson played center field as a freshman, but has been in right field primarily since then. He probably ends in right field long-term, though one would think he’ll get a chance to play center as a professional until he shows that he can’t handle the position. He’s got good speed and has had a lot of success as a baserunner in college.

As a freshman, he slashed .258/.333/.411 in 176 plate appearances over 50 games for Central Florida. He was the MVP of the wood bat Cal Ripken League that summer, when he slashed .462/.546/.906 with 9 homers in 29 games. He carried that momentum into his sophomore year, when he slashed .352/.448/.662 in 261 plate appearances over 55 games, with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases, striking out 36 times against 34 walks. After a solid 15 game stint in the Cape Cod League last summer, Williamson slashed .322/.422/.645 for Central Florida this season, wirh 41 walks against 47 Ks and 16 home runs.

Baseball America has Williamson at #47 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Williamson at #52 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Williamson at #43 on his top 150 list. Keith Law does not have Williamson on his board. Fangraphs does not have Williamson on their board. Baseball Prospectus does not have Williamson on their top 30 draft board.

Williamson, the nephew of former major leaguer Sean Rodriguez, doesn’t have a real weakness in his game, but also doesn’t have a loud carrying tool, with his tools all grading out at around 50 or 55 (though BA gives his hit tool a 45). If the concerns about his swing and pitch recognition get addressed, he’s a potentially solid major league corner outfielder. If they don’t, is other tools likely aren’t good enough to make him major league regular material.

With a track record of performance in the Big 12, as well as success in wood bat leagues, he seems a fairly safe pick in the second or third rounds, and he’s someone you could see the Rangers taking in that range.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Justin Lebron

Cameron Flukey

Derek Curiel

Hunter Dietz

Logan Hughes

Carson Wiggins

Peyton Bonds

Ace Reese

Sawyer Strosnider

Gio Rojas

Chris Rembert

Jack Natili

For many Cincinnati Reds fans, the breakout we saw during Matt McLain’s half-season of excellence in 2023 still resonates quite loudly. It’s hard not to, really – he was a 1st round pick of the club and during his first shot at the big leagues looked like he was an immediate success story, posting a 127 OPS+ with both power and speed while manning a premium defensive position.

In many ways, he was emblematic of a time when it looked – if you squinted a bit – like the Reds knew exactly what they were doing, and it was beginning to pay off in spades.

Things went south quickly, however. That 2023 season was cut short due to injury. The 2024 season was lost altogether due to injury(s). In the two seasons since coming back from major shoulder surgery (and oblique problems likely due to his aggressive swing), McLain has posted just a 75 OPS+ in nearly 900 PA.

He’s also going to turn 27 years old in just a month, and this week the Reds began trying to shoehorn him into playing CF for the first real time since his days at UCLA.

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of the guy you were supposed to consider the everyday 2B, the player who has been given chance after chance to cement both that role and a role atop the batting order by manager Terry Francona since he arrived on the scene last year. And what we’ve seen lately suggests that the time of McLain as the regular 2B may already be on the outs with prospect Edwin Arroyo gradually settling in there himself.

We asked you this week which of McLain or Arroyo should be given the job as the team’s primary 2B for the rest of the season, and you responded in overwhelming fashion. 82% of you think it should be Arroyo who gets to show what he can do there to build upon the 82 PA of 67 OPS+ work he’s put in so far while getting his feet wet at the big league level.

I don’t think it’s time to write off McLain altogether, at least not yet. He’s been passable against LHP so far this season (.749 OPS) and we know he’s a good defender at both 2B and SS. Heck, if he shows he can figure out how to play a little CF again, too, he’s a wonderful depth piece to have as Francona mixes and matches his lineups and mid-game changes.

However, if the Reds are going to once again stay mired in last place in the division and out of the Wild Card race, it likely behooves the team’s front office to find out what they’ve got in Arroyo as soon as they can, and so far there’s been glimpses that the 22 year old has some chops that may make him a pretty good player for awhile in Cincinnati. If the team’s going to hit a reset button of any size, seeing whether he can cut it as a cornerstone piece now makes a lot more sense than continuing to give an older player another dozen chances to rediscover form.

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The San Diego Padres hope to snap a six-game losing streak and gain some ground in the NL West race as they face the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving San Diego (+223) much of a chance against L.A. (-233) with superstar Shohei Ohtani on the bump, but my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions believe the Ohtani tax is too high. 

Read on for my full MLB picks for Friday, July 3.

Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres (+215)

These odds are inflated since the San Diego Padres have surrendered a whopping 35 runs in their last two games alone, bringing their losing streak to six, and they now have to face Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (1.58 ERA).

However, that doesn't account for the fact that San Diego has been red-hot at the plate, posting a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Ohtani's great, but this is a premium price for someone whose underlying profile (3.33 xFIP, 3.42 botERA) points toward some regression.

I'd play the underdog down to +210.

COVERS INTEL: Shohei Ohtani has shown signs of mortality in his last three starts, surrendering nine earned runs. In that time frame, the Padres have eight different position players with a wRC+ above 130. 

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

Michael King induces soft contact and keeps the ball on the ground, ranking in the 73rd percentile or better in ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. That’ll help him avoid a fireworks show, and the Padres have hit the Under in 13 of his 17 starts.

Despite Ohtani showing some signs of weakness lately, he has the second-lowest ERA in the Big Leagues. Naturally, L.A. has played in low-scoring games with him on the bump, going 3-10 O/U. 

With two effective starting pitchers on the bump, that’s enough to counteract two in-form lineups. 

Padres vs Dodgers weather

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at Chavez Ravine, cooling into the 60s as the game progresses. Light winds shouldn't play much of a factor for either offense. 

Padres vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Padres +215 | Dodgers -240
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)

Padres vs Dodgers trend

San Diego is 4-13 O/U in Michael King’s starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info

Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The 2026 MLB Draft is a week away and MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo has released his latest mock draft as draft day nears. The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting near the top with the fifth overall pick, and Mayo projects that they’ll take one of the top high school players with that selection.

The Pirates are currently projected to draft outfielder Eric Booth Jr. from Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Booth is ranked as the sixth best prospect in this year’s class and is the top prep school outfielder. Perhaps the Pirates find lightning twice by drafting a top high schooler out of the state of Mississippi like Konnor Griffin.

Booth is a standout in this class for several reasons, one of which is his athleticism. His speed was on full display a year ago when he ran the fastest 60-yard dash at East Coast Pro showcase (6.33 seconds). Despite having a more compact frame (6’0” 207 lbs) he has some decent power at the plate. He’s projected to be a 20-25 home run hitter by the time he makes the major leagues, plus he’s got good bat speed and already impressive natural strength for a 17-year-old. Booth’s power has already been on display as he won the Home Run Derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic last summer.

After a successful summer Booth has shot up prospect rankings and is being viewed now as possibly the best outfield prospect in the class. His raw athleticism has jumped off the pages as he was given a 70 run grade to go along with a 50 arm grade. The Vanderbilt commit is being looked at as an exciting hitting prospect too, garnering plenty of attention for his low strikeout rates and reliability at the plate. Booth was given a 55 hit grade with 50 power. As a defender there’s certainly some fine tuning that needs to take place within his development but he was still given a 50 arm grade and a 55 field grade.

The Pirates are once again picking in the top five picks of the draft, and they have not been afraid to take top prep talent in recent years. Just a year ago they took the best high school pitcher in Seth Hernandez with the sixth overall pick, and the aforementioned Griffin was taken ninth overall in the 2024 MLB draft. To this point both of those draft picks are paying off as Hernandez is dominating the minor leagues right now, while Griffin has been one of the top contributors in Pittsburgh since making his debut in April. A player like Booth could be another success story for the Buccos.

The MLB Draft will begin on July 11, at the Philadelphia Convention Center starting 1 p.m. ET.

The MLB Draft is only 8 days away, which means we are firmly in mock draft season. For a while, the Nats were being heavily connected to high school two-way player Jared Grindlinger. However, as we get closer to the draft, the winds seem to be shifting towards a college hitter. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America mocked Mississippi State infielder Ace Reese to the Nats, with Pipeline saying that the Nats “like” Reese.

When you look at Reese’s profile, there is a lot to like. There is a strong argument to be made that Reese has been the most productive hitter in the SEC the last two seasons. After transferring from Houston to Mississippi State following his freshman year, the infielder hit the ground running. Reese hit .352 with 21 homers and a 1.140 OPS. This year he had a strong follow up campaign, hitting .336 with 24 homers and a 1.152 OPS. 

With Ace Reese, you are buying the bat. He is a third baseman right now, but his speed and defense are fringy. The 6’4 slugger has a chance to stick at third, but there is also a real possibility he will have to move to first base. With that sort of profile, you have to be very sure about the bat.

There is certainly a strong case that Reese has an elite bat. He has plus in game power and makes more contact than your average slugger. Reese has a real chance to be a .260ish bat with 30 home run power. Even at first base, that bat would play in a real way. 

However, his offensive profile is not perfect. The biggest flaw in Reese’s offensive profile is his tendency to chase. In each of the last two seasons, he has chased more than the average hitter. His contact numbers also took a slight step back this year, though he does not have a bad hit tool by any means.

Between the chase rates and the slight hit tool concerns, there are more yellow flags in the offensive profile than you would like to see from a bat first guy. You have to worry a little bit about whether his chase issues could be exploited more as he gets into the upper minors and the big leagues. Reese has the power as his calling card, but with his lack of patience, he will also have to hit for a reasonably high average to be a high end bat.

Reese is in a big clump of college hitters who all had good years but left some questions. Our guy Paul made a very cool graphic comparing some of their underlying data. As you can see, Reese has elite power and is a barrel machine. However, the chase and whiff does create some risk in the profile.

Honestly, Reese’s profile is not too different from Ethan Petry, who the Nats took in the second round last year. Petry had some chase in his game, which has actually gotten better in pro ball. Reese chases more than Petry did, but he also has a better hit tool.

I am a bit higher on Reese than Paul is because I have more faith in the hit and power combination. However, if they were to pick Reese at 11, I would like it to be on an underslot deal. In the MLB Pipeline mock, the Nats take Reese over Chris Hacopian and Tyler Bell, which would be interesting to say the least. Bell is a more well rounded profile than Reese, and Hacopian might be the best pure hitter in the draft.

The appeal with Ace Reese is real though. This is a player who can hit absolute tape measure shots and has a gorgeous swing. He has good bat speed, barrels balls up with ease and has a real chance to be at least a 30 homer bat. True middle of the order bats are not easy to find, and Reese has that potential.

It feels crazy, but the draft is just over a week away. Paul Toboni and the scouting team are entering crunch time when it comes to who they pick. For a while, it seemed like they wanted to make a big swing on Grindlinger, and that is still possible. However, as draft day gets closer, it seems like they are falling back on the safety of taking a college hitter.