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It was a clean sweep here yesterday as the pitching board was as clear as glass. I'm looking to keep that heater rolling into an all-day slate loaded with pitcher predictions and MLB player props.

Chris Bassitt's strikeout market is moving to the Over for a reason. Sandy Alcantara's 100-pitch leash is perfect for his plus-money Over, and Drew Rasmussen's short leash has me reaching for a plus-money Under prop.

These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Wednesday, Aug. 19.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Chris Bassitt	Over 4.5 strikeouts	+105
Sany Alcantara	Over 4.5 strikeouts	+127
Drew Rasmussen	Under 17.5 outs	+150

Strikeout prop: Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)

The market is moving on Chris Bassitt’s Over Ks prop, and deservedly so. Bassitt rejoined the rotation off the IL in his last start and went 88 pitches against the Rays, so he is fully stretched out and ready for one of the best strikeout matchups in baseball.

The Yankees are the highest K% team in baseball this summer. In August, their 27.2% K% paces the league, and Bassitt has a solid track record against this lineup from his time with the Blue Jays.

Last season, Bassitt faced the Yankees four times and struck out 25 over 23-plus innings with a solid 1.141 WHIP. His strikeout stuff has dropped this year, but he was a K-per-inning pitcher during his rehab and can get to five Ks in 18 outs today with a 90-plus-pitch leash.

The K% matchup is what gets this across the line, and the 5.23 Ks projected on 91 pitches puts the fair price all the way at -150.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

Strikeout prop: Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 strikeouts (+127)

Sandy Alcantara is averaging 100.3 pitches per start over his last 10 games and has gone beyond 18 outs in 70% of those. His projections show value on the Under today, but that's based on a 92-pitch projection that could be short by 10 pitches.

The Miami starter's strikeout stuff is the same on the road as at home and better against lefties than righties. Since the start of June, Alcantara is 10-4 to the Over on this prop, but the real chase here is that plus money. He's also faced Philadelphia twice this year and gone Over in both games, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings.

There aren't a ton of angles here other than the longest-leashed pitcher in baseball with a great price and a profitable record.

This is a bet to +105.

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, Marlins.TV

Pitcher out prop: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 outs (+150)

Drew Rasmussen is a great pitcher, but he's a great pitcher with an 88-pitch leash over his last 10 games and has seen the Blue Jays three times this season. He's hit the Over at a 61% clip over the last three months but is priced at 66% probable today in a matchup that should be tougher than average.

The Jays don't strike out a lot and can run up pitch counts. Yesterday, I faded Nick Martinez in a similar spot at plus money for a winner, and I'm going back to the well today. The Rays also used just two bullpen arms yesterday, so there are plenty of fresh arms available to cover the fifth and sixth innings.

I'd play this down to +120. Rasmussen has thrown more than 90 pitches just four times over his last 10 starts, and this lineup is very familiar with him.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet

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The lineups are out for Wednesday afternoon’s getaway day game between the Atlanta Braves and the Minnesota Twins. If the Braves are going to get out of this mini-funk that they’re currently in, then they’re planning on doing it with most of the familiar faces.

Here’s today’s lineup for Atlanta:

Dominic Smith is making his first start of the series in the series finale and he’ll be the third different player to serve as DH during this series, as Ronald Acuña Jr. took on the role in the series opener and Drake Baldwin got the nod in the middle matchup. Meanwhile, Jim Jarvis returns to the lineup at shortstop, which means that Mauricio Dubón will be starting this game on the bench. Outside of that, everybody’s in their usual spots both in the field and in the lineup.

We’ll update this post once the Twins reveal their lineup but for now, how are we feeling about the lineup today? Let’s see some runs this afternoon, please.

The DSL Braves season has come to a close. On paper it wasn’t a good year at just 16-39, but this was the strongest DSL Braves roster we have seen in at least a decade – particularly on the hitter side of things. This article will highlight some of the successes and failures of the team’s season, as well as picking the team’s hitter and pitcher of the year.

DSL Hitter of the Year: Sherrintely Da Costa Gomez, OF

This ended up being a pretty easy choice after Sherrintely Da Costa Gomez slashed .248/.409/.440 with five homers and seven steals over 44 games played in his age-17 season. The main competitors for this were Jorwin Pulido (promoted after 22 games), Starlyn De La Cruz (injured after 16 games), and Edelson Cabral (his stat line fell off a bit towards the end of his first professional season). SDCG filled the box score all year, recording five doubles, two triples, 30 RBI, and 33 walks, which helped him be selected to the All Star Game. Really the only area of question was the fact he struck out 56 times over 164 plate appearances. He led the Braves in homers, RBI, and slugging percentage among qualified players. Sherrintely is looking like a possible steal, signing for just $250k this year – making him the 8th most expensive signing in this year’s Braves class.

DSL Pitcher of the Year: Martires Polanco, RHP

While the DSL pitching staff struggled this year, to put it mildly, Martires Polanco was a revelation. Sure he is already 19-years-old and pitching in the DSL, but this kid has potentially plus grades on both his fastball and slider, and he is only in his first professional season – so I wouldn’t look at him in the same lens as an older player who puts up big DSL stats while repeating the league. Polanco posted a 2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, and 4.3 H/9 over 37.1 innings in his 10 starts and made the All Star Game. The only red flag with him is he also walked 6.8 per nine innings, suggesting that the control is going to need to be worked on as he moves up. Polanco did have some competition for this spot, as 17-year-old Cesar Navarro posted a slightly better ERA (2.47) and WHIP (1.20) over more innings (47.1) – though he only struck out 6.8 per nine. Polanco technically signed last year, but not until mid-December, for an undisclosed amount – which usually means a smaller sized bonus, while Navarro cost $80k.

Hitting

This was one of the most fun DSL lineups we have seen in a long time, though the lineup looked very different at the end of the season as injuries started to add up and a promotion occurred. Still it was a positive year for most of the Braves top international signees. We already got into Sherrintely Da Costa Gomez, but the top three signings this year were shortstop Jose Manon ($1.5M), outfielder Starlyn De La Cruz ($1.2M), and infielder Edelson Cabral ($600k). Manon slashed .302/.400/.396 with one homer, seven doubles, and 19 steals as he walked 14 times to 22 strikeouts over 125 plate appearances – but his season ended on July 16th due to injury.

Starlyn was off to an insane start, slashing .300/.500/.560 with two doubles, a triple, two homers, and nine steals to go with his 14 walks and 14 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances – but his season ended due to injury on June 23rd. Cabral made it the whole season and hit .236/.397/.344 with three doubles, four triples, two homers, 13 steals, and 39 walks to 41 strikeouts over 204 plate appearances.

Though Cabral actually saw his numbers dip from an .849 OPS on July 27th after slashing just .036/.333/.107 over his last 42 plate appearances. It’s less of a concern and probably more of a 17-year-old in hitting a wall in his first professional season, especially considering he didn’t even turn 17 until July.

Beyond the big three signees and the emergence of Sherrintely, a couple more first year guys stood out. Catcher Jorwin Pulido hit .324/.402/.437 with six doubles and a triple with 10 walks to only five strikeouts in 87 plate appearances. His time here was cut short because he earned a promotion to the FCL, something the Braves almost never do for a player in his first pro season, let alone for a 17-year-old. Then there was catcher Jose Nelo, who came on late and slashed .296/.392/.428 with 12 doubles and three homers to go with 25 walks and 37 strikeouts in his 189 plate appearances. Pulido was signed for $350k, while Nelo was a $50k signing this year.

Among the other six-figure bonus players were Osmar Torrealba ($400k), Durban Arnedo ($275k), Elioberto Mondesir ($197.5k), and Luis Fortunato ($150k). Fortunato had the best year of this group, slashing .265/.392/.302 with four extra base hits, followed by Mondesir’s .221/.345/.287 with seven extra base hits. Torrealba (.449 OPS) and Arnedo (.468 OPS) both struggled in their pro debuts, but Arnedo did reportedly have some flashes of his talent.

In terms of guys repeating the league the Braves third, fourth, and fifth most expensive signings from the 2025 class were all back. Angel Carmona, who received $447.5k last year, was the most anticipated, but he didn’t see game action as he spent the entire season on the restricted list after a .827 OPS in 20 games here last year. Outfielder Elias Reyno, a $297.5k signing, went from slashing .178/.397/.271 here last year to posting a line of .208/.406/.292 in 10 games before being promoted to the FCL. The former Yassel Garcia, now Yassel Pena, who signed for $247.5k and posted a .686 OPS here a year ago would slash .246/.424/.336 with a homer among his eight extra base hits. It is worth noting that Pena played exclusively at third last year, and this year he played mostly first base with five games at third and one in left field – though he still had the speed to steal 13 bags in 17 attempts.

Among other players who flashed something were 17-year-old outfielder Luis Consoro (.665 OPS), and 18-year-old outfielder Elisandro Ramirez, who was repeating the league. Ramirez saw his OPS jump from .663 to .836 this year, posting an OPS mark above .915 in both July and August, though he played only 20 combined games in those months. Consoro didn’t sign and make his debut until mid-July, but did show some speed and on base ability in the 19 games he spent here.

Pitching

It’s safe to say that things were a mess here, as the 23 pitchers and three position players used this year combined to pitch to an 7.41 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Out of the 13 guys who pitched 10+ innings, only five had an ERA below 5.04 – a number that includes one 21-year-old in a league that is filled with 16-18 year-olds. Things are usually bleak in terms of the quality of DSL pitching, but this staff struggled more than most. Polanco and Navarro were the two most productive arms, but two more first year pitchers also had good seasons. Jesus Cova, an 18-year-old, pitched to a 3.07 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 7.7 K/9 over 29.1 innings, while 17-year-old Geowin Gomez had a 3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9 over 32 innings.

Gomez was actually a reliever who only made two starts among his 11 appearances, but based on his innings total might get a shot at starting in the future. The fifth guy with a strong year was Charlis Medina, who while also in his first year is a 21-year-old. Medina put up a 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 over 40.2 innings.

Among the other players who posted a strikeout rate of better than 9.0 per nine were three relievers in 17-year-old Giovanni Medina (6.08 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 10.6 K/9), 17-year-old Diego Ramirez (9.49 ERA, 2.51 WHIP, 9.5 K/9), and 18-year-old league repeater Ernesto Meza (5.04 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 9.4 K/9).

The only two pitchers who signed for $100K+ this year were Jonathan Hechavarria and Efrailin Caminero, and neither was able to do much. Hechavarria, who signed for $340k, didn’t pitch at all this year due to injury, while Caminero, who got $150k, went 0.2 innings over three relief appearances and walked eight guys.

It just keeps on going. The Cubs complete another walk-off win. Consecutive walk-off wins, consecutive PCA lead-off homers. I could get used to this. That’s 13 of them and that ties 1932 and 2015 for the second most in franchise history (14 in 1930). I keep seeing echoes of that 2015 season. That’s a really special season for what it was and what it led to. I’d be over the moon if this season is either part of or a bridge to the next Cub championship. But it won’t tarnish the fun that this summer has been. The walk-offs. The further ascendency of Pete to baseball royalty. A really gutsy trade deadline. So much to love this season. (Even if those trade deadline moves have so far produced uneven, at best, results.)

Before we dissect another fun win, let’s rewind a bit. There is a lag now between the WPA numbers I see at the time I’m writing and what is there when Al edits and posts what I write. So it is hard for me to put in perspective the season long implications of a WPA score. That is doubly true with extra-inning games. When the ghost runner became a thing, it broke the standard WPA calculators. I’m not a coder, so I don’t understand why there isn’t some “easy” fix for that runner. But the initial numbers always get confused as to how that baserunner is there. I’m imagining some casual fans are too, right? Trying to understand why baseball changes its rules at the end. I mean hockey and football also have different rules in their overtime. So it’s not insane. But still. It’ll always be weird to me.

Nico Hoerner’s .797 WPA for the Monday night game was indeed the highest WPA score of the season. Noting back to the prior paragraph, it originally posted over the .800 mark. As we get into that rare air, when was the last higher score by a Cub? In 2018, the Cubs produced two scores higher. One is essentially impossible in the modern game. Who remembers Eddie Butler? I remember him throwing a ball to my daughter in spring training of 2017. On March 30, 2018 Butler threw seven innings of one run ball. In relief. That one run? It lost the Cubs the game 2-1.

But that wasn’t even the highest WPA score of that season. That belongs to the ultimate WPA event. On August 12, 2018 David Bote batted with the bases loaded and two outs, the Cubs down three. He hit an ultimate grand slam, flipping a 3-0 loss to a 4-3 win. As it was pinch hitting, his WPA game score was the whole .901 event. That nudged out Butler’s .898.

One other fun WPA note. They tweak it. All of the time. I assume between seasons, but I’m not really sure. While the Butler game was .898 at the time I recorded it, it’s a mere .850 now. As they tweak it, it effects what you’ll see on a site like baseball reference. David Bote’s now shows as .904. So even a little more remarkable with time. That’s the ultimate event score. In theory, you could register a game score over 1.000. If you kept getting clutch hits and your pitching kept giving it up, you could amass a lot of WPA. An easy example for Cub fans is the “Sandberg game.” Homer to tie it in the ninth, homer to tie it in the 10th, five hits and seven RBI in total. That was a 1.088 WPA game.

So needless to say, Nico’s game was an almost once in a decade WPA score. If you said that PCA absolutely HAD to be the Player of the Game, I think you probably are underselling Nico’s game. I always hesitate to tell someone their opinion is wrong. But if you don’t see the two of those as 1 and 1a for the game, you are probably under valuing Nico a bit.

For this game, Tuesday night, Alex Bregman appears to have checked in with the fourth highest WPA score of the year. Alex isn’t what he once was as a player. We’re talking about a guy who was a real decisive offensive force in the game for a while. He’s not that anymore. But his defense is exceptional, guys who are often credited as leaders on this team look to him for leadership and the bat is slowly coming around to be pretty darn productive. I tend to like hitters who were first round picks and have been All-Stars before. Even when you get them in the twilight of their career. To be fair, I don’t think Alex (or Dansby Swanson) have reached their twilight. But, I love guys like them, because they don’t shy from the big moment. To use basketball language, they used to be the guy who hit the shot. Granted almost all of these guys were THAT guy in high school. But I think it is something different when you’ve done it on the biggest stage. I’ve seen Dansby be in a horrid slump, stand in with the game on the line and have a super high quality plate appearance. And now I’m seeing Bregman do it. Obviously, if you could get an army of this year’s Pete Crow-Armstrongs, you’d do that. I mean, how fun would it be to see him playing all over the diamond. But seriously, you grab in their prime stars when you can. But guys who have well rounded skillsets and aren’t one foot into retirement yet are pretty darn valuable too.

My last narrative of the game is going to be about Javier Assad. Can a player both be overrated and underrated? I think Cub fans tend to over rate Javier. The Cubs know he’s a valuable piece but also one that can be overexposed if he’s given a very long leash. Non Cub fans probably significantly under rate Javy. That guy has accepted every role they’ve given to him and he’s clearly pouring his heart out with every appearance. There aren’t many guys on the team that I want to see succeed more than him. I can’t think of too many guys in recent years who have gotten more of a percentage of their possible production than him. The last one I can think of was the run Albert Almora Jr. got on for a while until he was ultimately overexposed. And he didn’t do it for as long as Assad has. I truly don’t believe you could hand him a major role and have it work. But he’s really excelled in two long stretches over different seasons for this organization. I love that he’s under control for at least one more year. He’s so valuable in that utility role.

One last, last note. Jacob Webb. He threw a scoreless ninth to set up the heroics. There he is collecting both wins in this series. Between Webb and Michael Conforto, they’ve really carried last off-season’s acquisition class. Oh heck, why don’t I give everyone a hat tip. This is a good handful of huge runs I can remember Kevin Alcántara scoring for this team. The bat hasn’t worked yet, but the wheels play.

Three Positives:

• Sure, why not sneak in another one here. One at bat for Carson Kelly, he doubles and scores the winning run off of the bench. I was a little scared with a catcher running on a line drive single with the outfielder charging it.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, just the one hit. But leading off the game with a homer is a big deal. He did draw two walks, though one was intentional. He had to start picking up intentional walks eventually.
• I’m going to give a little love to Michael Busch here too. He had a solo homer in the first off of a lefty. He added a walk. He missed two homers by maybe 10 total feet on Monday. Feels like he’s getting the power stroke going for the stretch run. Sure would love to see him get on a heater.

As is always the case in a one-run win, there are a number of guys who played a key role in the win. I think I hit most of them somewhere along the way.

Game127, August 18: Cubs 4, White Sox 3 (74-53)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.537). 2-5, 2 RBI
• Hero: Javier Assad (.214). 3 IP, 10 BF, 2 H, 2 K
• Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.173). 1-1, 2B, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.289). 0-5
• Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.129). 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 R, 5 K
• Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.112). 1-4

WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s walk-off single in the ninth inning. (.390) For the second straight night, the same Cub was responsible for the two biggest plays of the game. His game-tying single in the seventh was the second. (.233)

White Sox Play of the Game: Tristran Peters doubled with a runner on second and one out in the fourth, giving the Sox the lead. (.125)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 126 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 84 of 115 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
• Alex Bregman +22
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -19.5

Notes: Javier Assad is now sixth at +12 and Seiya Suzuki is next on the negative at -9.

Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (eight back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (even). Brewers win (4.5 up). Dodgers win (two up). So, at least for one day, there are only three teams in baseball with better records than the Cubs and one of those is the Rays in the AL, just one ahead. Regardless of what you think of them, this Cub team isn’t going away. They are on a 94-win pace. 94 probably doesn’t win the division.

Up Next: An afternoon game Wednesday as the Cubs go for a sweep. It was fortunate catching the White Sox at the back of their rotation while the Cubs were in good position. We’ll take it. Clay Holmes (5-5, 2.56) starts for the Cubs. His last Wrigley start was awesome. One hit, one walk over 6.2 innings against the Cardinals. It’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back from that. Sean Newcomb will be the opener for the Sox, followed by José Urquidy as the “bulk guy.” Urquidy is 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and was the bulk pitcher behind an opener last time through. He threw 3.2 innings against the Tigers and picked up a win in doing so. He hadn’t actually started games at the major league level since 2023 with the Astros. There’s no way he’s fully stretched. The Sox bullpen isn’t crazy taxed out of these first two games though, getting good work from the main pitcher in each game.

Get greedy and finish the sweep. Deliver the bitter pill to a pesky young team and worry about them in a year or two as they develop.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up high-scoring victories in each of their first two games against the Colorado Rockies, and I'm expecting a similar formula from the -200 favorites tonight.

Their offense is well-positioned to score early and often against Kyle Freeland, which is why I'm targeting the road team to win by a margin with my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks on Wednesday, Aug. 19.

Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies today: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

Roki Sasaki has posted a 3.5 xERA or better in six of his last seven starts, with the lone exception coming against the league-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

His strikeouts are up, his hard-hit rate is down, and he’s held opponents to a 28.6% fly-ball rate over the last month. That will play well at Coors, where keeping the ball on the ground is crucial.

The Los Angeles Dodgers scored 18 runs over the first two games of this series, and should provide Sasaki with all the support needed against Kyle Freeland and a bad Colorado Rockies bullpen.

Play the RL to -135.

COVERS INTEL:Freeland sits in the ninth percentile in barrel rate, which is a recipe for disaster in favorable hitting conditions at Coors.

Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Over 11.5 (+105)

The Dodgers have averaged nine runs over the first two games of the series, and I trust them to do some serious lifting for the total in this one.

Freeland has gotten crushed by quality offenses all season long. He has posted an abysmal 10.85 ERA and allowed 2.91 HR/9 over seven starts vs. Top-10 offenses in ISO against left-handed pitching.

The Colorado Rockies are a very good offense at home — it’s hard not to be — and they won’t need to score much to push this total Over.

Play to -115.

Dodgers vs Rockies home run prediction: Andy Pages (+365)

Andy Pages is a beast against left-handed pitching, hitting .288 with a .252 ISO and eye-popping .911 OPS in the split.

He not only draws a lefty tonight, but a poor one at that. Freeland has bled power to righties, ranking in the fifth percentile in xSLG and 11th percentile in HR/9. The matchup is about as good as it gets.

When you factor in that this game will be played at Coors, with the environment projected to provide a 26% boost to homers, and it’s hard not to get excited about Pages in this spot.

I’d back him to +340.

Dodgers vs Rockies weather

With temperatures comfortably in the 80s, the hitting conditions will be very favorable at Coors.

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -200 | Rockies +165
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 11 (-120) | Under 11 (+100)

Dodgers vs Rockies trend

Colorado has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of the last 21 games (+6.10 units, 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info

Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Seattle Mariners were one game away from a trip to the World Series last season. This year, everything has fallen apart. Catcher Cal Raleigh went from baseball’s best power hitter with 60 home runs to someone with a .570 OPS this year. Raleigh’s struggles are emblematic of an entire team that just can’t seem to get right. Seattle is dead-last in baseball in runs per game (3.88), and no amount of pitching skill is going to save a team when the offense is that bad.

The Mariners were already out of the playoff race when they came to Milwaukee for a three-game series this week, but Tuesday night will be remembered as the low-point in their lost season. The mighty Brewers pounded Seattle, 22-0, in a game that was actually more embarrassing than the final score.

Seattle was only down 13-0 when third baseman Leo Rivas came on to pitch the eighth inning. He gave up nine runs in his one inning of work, but only seven of them were earned. Star outfielder Julio Rodriguez contributed the most humiliating error possible in baseball when he caught a long fly ball for the second out of the inning, and tossed it in the stands like it was the third out. Watch the video here:

If that doesn’t sum up the Mariners’ season from hell perfectly, I don’t know what does.

This is the worst mistake you can make on a baseball field, I think. There’s no excuse for not knowing how many outs there are. Obviously, Seattle was already getting blown out when this happened, and maybe it’s understandable in this situation for Rodriguez to let his mind wander. It immediately went viral, and made an awful game even worse. This is no way to be a professional, and someone as good as Rodriguez simply can’t make this error.

Larry Walker did this in 1994, and it’s still talked about.

This season has reached “sim to end” status for the Mariners. When fans think back to the disappointment of the 2026 campaign, Rodriguez throwing the ball into the stands with two outs, down 19-0 in Milwaukee, will be one of their first and worst flashbacks.

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Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include the Tigers at plus money on the road against Paul Skenes

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 19.

MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 19

Matchup	Pick
Tigers vs Pirates	+147
Padres vs Mets	-127
Braves vs Twins	-104
White Sox vs Cubs	-141
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox	+153
Marlins vs Phillies	+117
Yankees vs Orioles	+113
Giants vs Guardians	-208
Cardinals vs Reds	+133
Blue Jays vs Rays	-194
Athletics vs Royals	-135
Mariners vs Brewers	+117
Nationals vs Rangers	+122
Angels vs Astros	+144
Dodgers vs Rockies	-186

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-19.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 19

Tigers vs Pirates: Tigers (+147)

Tigers win probability: 60%

With how terrible right-hander Paul Skenes has been over his last five starts, and with the books continuing to give us the "Skenes Tax," the Tigers are the play.

The Tigers' offense has been fantastic across the last few weeks, sporting a 130 wRC+, .354 wOBA and .804 OPS over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates' bats have gone cold, just like their star pitcher.

Padres vs Mets: Padres (-127)

Padres win probability: 56%

Michael King takes the mound for the Padres this evening, owning a 3.72 ERA over his last five outings while limiting opposing hitters to just a 29% hard-hit rate. The Padres' offense has been scorching hot over the last month, posting a 122 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and .767 OPS.

The Mets' bats have gone cold across their last six games, with just a 96 wRC+, .303 wOBA, and .682 OPS. Additionally, Robert Stock is on the mound for them, and he's posted a 6.57 ERA through three outings this season.

At -127, taking the Padres is a great price.

Braves vs Twins: Braves (-104)

Braves win probability: 51%

Minnesota Twins starter Taj Bradley has been great this season at Target Field. But he's fallen off a cliff over his last three starts. The right-hander owns a 6.60 ERA and 1.93 WHIP during that stretch while walking hitters at a 13.33% clip. Bradley looked like he was turning a new leaf, until he wasn't.

Atlanta's bats are still cold, but taking on a pitcher who relies heavily on his fastball could be exactly what the lineup needs to get back on track.

White Sox vs Cubs: Cubs (-141)

Cubs win probability: 58%

The Cubs just have the White Sox's number in this series. It's clear the Cubs are looking to get their revenge after losing the initial series a few months back.

The White Sox send out Jose Urquidy, who owns an 8.10 ERA this season. He owns a 14.40 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP over his last three appearances. His arm won't instill much confidence in this White Sox team.

The only way the White Sox have a chance is if they pounce on Clay Holmes early and get to the Cubs' bullpen. That seems like an unlikely scenario given how well Holmes has been pitching.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox: Diamondbacks (+153)

Diamondbacks win probability: 40%

The Red Sox at $1.50 doesn't feel like an attractive price to pay when the Diamondbacks have been just as good. Arizona sends out Brandon Pfaadt, who looks as good as he did during the 2023 postseason. The young right-hander has posted a 0.00 ERA over his last three starts while limiting hard contact and barrels.

The Diamondbacks have been maintaining a 117 wRC+, .779 OPS, and .190 ISO over their last 12 games.

On the other side, Boston left-hander Payton Tolle is on the mound, and he's been unbelievable. The club's bats look great as well, but with how well both sides have been performing, the dog carries more value.

Marlins vs Phillies: Marlins (+117)

Marlins win probability: 46%

Aaron Nola has looked better in his last few starts, but Sandy Alcantara has been lights out. The Marlins' right-hander owns a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last five outings while allowing minimal hard contact and barrels.

The bats have been hot for the Fightin' Fish, and they're well worth trusting against a skittish arm.

Yankees vs Orioles: Orioles (+113)

Orioles win probability: 47%

The Yankees own a 73 wRC+ over their last six games, while the Orioles have posted a 139 wRC+ during that same stretch. It's extremely hard to overlook how poorly the Yankees' offense has been, and getting a team this hot at the dish as an underdog is a gift.

Will Warren has been struggling too, producing a 6.41 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over his last three starts. Orioles right-hander Chris Bassitt at least has a 3.77 ERA in the same span.

Take the dog!

Giants vs Guardians: Guardians (-208)

Giants win probability: 68%

No chance we try to back the Giants against a left-handed arm, especially one as good as Parker Messick. San Francisco against left-handed arms owns just a 91 wRC+, .294 wOBA and .661 OPS.

Of course, the price is horrible, but Messick has been nearly untouchable, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Meanwhile, Adrian Houser has an expected road ERA of 5.06.

Guardians or nothing here.

Cardinals vs Reds: Cardinals (+133)

Cardinals win probability: 43%

Snagging the Cardinals as a +133 underdog with how poorly the Reds' bats have been is a gift. Sure, right-hander Chase Burns has been unhittable, but the Reds still have to manage to score runs. Matthew Liberatore has been very solid in his most recent outings, owning a 2.80 xERA and 0.98 ERA over his last three.

The Cardinals have a 116 wRC+, .182 ISO and .334 wOBA over their last six games, while the Reds have an 88 wRC+, .678 OPS and a 25% strikeout rate.

Give me the dog!

Blue Jays vs Reds: Rays (-194)

Rays win probability: 66%

This is written every day here: HOW CAN WE TRUST THE BLUE JAYS? You can't!

The Blue Jays are ice-cold offensively, while the Rays have posted a .807 OPS, .174 ISO, and 132 wRC+ over their last 12 games. Max Scherzer has looked solid in his last few outings, but Father Time is on his tail. Plus, Drew Rasmussen has been nails, owning a 1.20 ERA across his last five starts while allowing little to no hard contact.

Rays or nothing.

Athletics vs Royals: Royals (-135)

Royals win probability: 57%

Death. Taxes. Fading Jeffrey Springs on the mound.

Even after the walk-off win last night, the Royals are the play here. Springs has posted a 9.00 ERA, 6.09 xERA, and 2.15 WHIP over his last five outings. Royals right-hander Seth Lugo hasn't been much better, but he owns a 3.70 xERA over his last five.

Kansas City's bats have been slightly cold, but Springs can bring that offense to life.

Mariners vs Brewers: Mariners (+117)

Mariners win probability: 46%

With how weak the Brewers' bats have become over their last 12 games and how hot the Mariners have been over the last week, snagging Seattle at +117 feels like the move.

The Mariners have a 121 wRC+, .338 wOBA, and .766 OPS over the last week, while owning a walk rate of almost 11%. On the other hand, the Brewers have a wRC+ under 80, .282 wOBA, and .082 ISO over their last six games.

Logan Gilbert has been great on the road this season, with just a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Dustin May has been solid as well, but with how cold Milwaukee has been at the dish, the Mariners offer some value as road underdogs.

Nationals vs Rangers: Nationals (+122)

Nationals win probability: 45%

Are the Nationals as an underdog one of the biggest mispriced teams of the day? Kumar Rocker has gone back to his old ways, posting an 8.10 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and 12.86% walk rate over his last three starts.

On top of that, Cade Cavalli has been soaring over his last five starts, owning a 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just an 8% barrel rate.

At +122, trust the Nationals.

Angels vs Astros: Angels (+144)

Angels win probability: 41%

The Los Angeles Angels offer a lot of value tonight against the Astros, especially with how well Walbert Urena has been pitching over his last few starts. He's put up a 2.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his last five outings. The right-hander is allowing just a 2.9% barrel rate.

Sadly, neither offense has been instilling much confidence, so we'll lean heavily into Urena to get the job done at +144.

Dodgers vs Rockies: Dodgers (-186)

Dodgers win probability: 65%

Kyle Freeland has been reliable recently, but the Dodgers will surely turn it up once the Rockies go to the bullpen. Additionally, the Rockies' offense has been lifeless, posting just a 78 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and .670 OPS over their last six games. The Dodgers own a 107 wRC+, .319 wOBA, and .214 ISO during the same stretch.

It's the Dodgers or nothing here with how cold the Rockies have been.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Mets are placing designated hitter Jorge Polanco back on the 10-day IL due to left ankle bursitis -- an injury that cost him significant time earlier this season and will now require season-ending surgery.

Interim manager Andy Green said the surgery will happen in the "near-term," adding that a recent MRI on Polanco showed it was necessary.  

"It's gotten to the point where he just can't get freedom from the pain," Green noted, adding that it's his belief that playing through the injury impacted Polanco mechanically at the plate. 

Polanco had struggled badly since returning from the IL in July, slashing .127/.169/.190 with one home run and two doubles in 84 plate appearances while being limited to designated hitter duties due to the lingering bursitis.

Before that, he spent roughly three months on the IL because of the issue, which resulted in a slow recovery and led to his rehab assignment being shut down at one point as it became a matter of pain tolerance.

As Polanco was working his way back, and shortly after he received a PRP injection, he said he wanted to get to a point where he had "more good days than the days I don't feel so good." That was in the middle of May.

After being activated from the IL on July 7, Polanco talked about how he was feeling.

"I was getting more consistent days feeling good," he said. "I think that's what I needed."

But Polanco added that he was expecting to have to manage the issue for the rest of the season, noting at the time that he wasn't sure if he would require surgery after the season.

Overall this year, Polanco hit .148/.201/.230 in 145 plate appearances over 37 games.

A deeper dive into Polanco's numbers doesn't really reveal anything positive to grasp onto, with him near the bottom of the league in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, walk rate, and bat speed.

Polanco is under contract through 2027, when he'll earn $23 million and count for $20 million toward the luxury tax payroll.