For all of the surprises we’ve gotten out of a wonderful first half of play from the 2026 White Sox, it feels perhaps a little fitting that they’ll head into the break by addressing (or at least attempting to address) one of the premier uncertainties that will have a heavy hand and determining whether we get October baseball on the South Side this year: What, exactly, can we plan on getting out of Noah Schultz the rest of the way?
The 22-year-old makes his third start today after a month-long injury layoff, and unfortunately, the backsliding and lack of consistency that were becoming worrisome prior to his IL stint are still major concerns. He’s got a 6.00 ERA through 10 starts, with fewer than a strikeout per inning and over five walks per nine. His start on Tuesday against Boston, in which he battled through five innings but couldn’t keep anyone off the bases and ultimately put the Sox in a multi-run hole, was pretty emblematic of what we’ve seen out of him at the big-league level thus far.
There’s clearly little to nothing for him left to prove in the minor leagues, so all we can see is where the adjustments will fall.
The biggest thing I’m looking at today? Schultz’s fastball usage. His sinker is his most frequently-used pitch at a touch more than 25%, and unfortunately it’s gotten hammered. His four-seam fastball draws three times as many whiffs and has held hitters to expected stats significantly more muted than what they’re doing against his sinker.
More important than the whiffs is the fact that he can’t actually keep his sinker on the ground. Over 60% of the batted balls against Schultz on the whole so far have been in the air, which is a really bad way to go about things in a place like Rate Field. The average launch angle on contact against Schultz’s sinker is 15°, just a couple degrees below his four-seamer. That’s one of the 20 highest rates in the major leagues.
So I must ask: If it doesn’t get whiffs, and doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, then what’s the point of throwing it? Perhaps today, we’ll find out.
Here’s the Athletics lineup that this hypothesis may or may not be tested against:
Meanwhile, despite another power outage yesterday, with a sweep and first place at the break on the line, Will Venable is putting out a full-strength Sox lineup against burgeoning Athletics starter J.T. Ginn.
It’s almost surreal, looking at a Sox lineup and thinking that it wouldn’t actually necessarily be that much better if you stuck Roch Cholowsky in there right now this second!
First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. CT at Rate Field in Armour Square. If you want to join us, broadcasts are available on CHSN (TV) and WMVP AM 1000 (radio), like always!
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