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In baseball, we talk about the grind of a 162 game season, and how you can never get too high or too low. Those words usually ring true across a long season. However, seasons can still crumble very quickly, and that is exactly what happened to the Nats last week.

Last Monday, the Nats were coming off a monster series win against a fellow Wild Card contender in the D-Backs. Now, it was on to the last place Blue Jays. The best offense in baseball would be facing the best pitcher in Nats history in Max Scherzer, but a very diminished version of Mad Max. It was supposed to be a passing of the torch night. However, since the Nats let a laboring Scherzer off the hook, things have gone off the rails.

Since last Monday, the Nats are 1-7, going from one game back of the NL Wild Card to 5.5 games back. Such a promising season has gone so wrong so very quickly. Even if this is the beginning of a limp towards the finish line, it is important to remember that this season is still very likely to be a success. Key pieces such as CJ Abrams, James Wood and Cade Cavalli took major steps. They also got great production out of Curtis Mead, Luis Garcia Jr. and Foster Griffin before selling high on that trio.

That does not make this collapse out of playoff contention any less painful though. The most ironic thing is that the Nats greatest strength was the thing that did them in this weekend. Sure, the pitching and defense has not been stellar, but the biggest reason for this collapse has been the lack of offense, particularly with runners in scoring position.

They have been truly dreadful with ducks on the pond lately and it is why this offense has only scored more than 4 runs once in the last 8 games. Guys like James Wood and Keibert Ruiz picked bad times to start slumping. The offense has also really felt the loss of Curtis Mead, who was arguably the best clutch hitter on the team.

The slide started against the Blue Jays, but it was the Braves series that really did them in. These Nats have been a great road team all season, but they laid an egg in the 4 game set at Truist Park. The experienced Braves totally outplayed the Nats, who did not look ready for the moment. It was a comprehensive beatdown.

As the noise surrounding the trade deadline grew, this Nats team just seemed to shrink. The now departed Griffin basically admitted that the past week has been tough on him with the trade rumors surrounding him. It sure seemed like he was not the only one struggling with that pressure. 

When the Nats needed to rise to the occasion, they buckled. That is why Paul Toboni ended up selling. He can talk all he wants about how he believes in this team, but he threw in the towel at the deadline. With how the last week went, it is tough to blame him. For Toboni to buy, this team needed to show something and they did not.

Based on this quote, this was clearly a tough decision for Toboni, and he wanted to wait as long as he could to see which direction he would go. However, this past week made the decision less difficult. It was clear that Toboni knew that this organization needed more pitching depth and with the team falling out of the race, selling off pieces was the way to accomplish this.

I do think Toboni envisions this team competing for the playoffs next season (assuming there is one). Most of the pieces he got back in these returns are players that can contribute in 2027. A lot of them are role players, especially in the bullpen, but that is exactly what the Nats need. People have been asking what this season would be like if the Nats had an average bullpen. With this stockpile of arms, Toboni is trying to build that average, and eventually very good bullpen.

When the dust settled, the Nats got a lot deeper on the mound as an organization. However, they lost several of the main drivers of what made them great this season. Abrams and Wood remain, but that supporting cast is very diminished. Toboni is betting that he can continue to develop bats the way he did with Garcia and Mead.

The first game after the deadline showed us what the reality of the rest of this year may look like. This offense is not as explosive, but the bullpen sure is leaky. Derek Hill’s grand slam was the final nail in the coffin of the Nats playoff hopes. It was another bullpen meltdown combined with a lack of fight after they fell behind, as well as plenty of missed chances.

This season was a step in the right direction, but the Nats are going to have to build off this. That means ownership and the front office will need to be aggressive this offseason. With ownership, I am not that confident in this. Hopefully they spend, but I will have to see it to believe it. 

It has been a mostly fun season, but we got a real reality check last week. This team still needs to make plenty of improvements and the core players still need another year to mature. Hopefully this season was just the start of something special because it has been the best season of Nats baseball in a while.

Jonathan Hernández pitched the final two innings of the Dodgers’ loss on Monday night at Wrigley Field, the eighth time in 13 appearances this year he’s finished off a game, most of them lopsided scores.

What was notable was Hernández wearing number 26 on Monday, after getting called back up from Triple-A Oklahoma City. That was different from earlier this season, when he wore 29. But the Dodgers added Sunday added a two-time Cy Young Award winner in Tarik Skubal, and 29 is the only number he’s ever worn in the major leagues.

Skubal adds star power to the number 29 for the Dodgers, something the team hasn’t seen wearing the number since third baseman Adrian Beltré. In between, it’s fun to look back at the most recent numbers 29 with the team, a wonderful collection of remembering some guys.

In reverse chronological order:

• Pitcher Jonathan Hernández (2026)
• Pitcher Michael Grove (2024)
• Catcher Austin Wynns (2023)
• Pitcher Dylan Covey (2023)
• Outfielder Billy McKinney (2021)
• Infielder Andy Burns (2021)
• First base coach George Lombard (2018-19)
• Pitcher Scott Kazmir (2016-17)
• Third base coach Tim Wallach (2013-15)
• Pitcher Ted Lilly (2010-13)
• Pitcher Jason Schmit (2007-09)
• First baseman James Loney (2006)
• First base coach Mariano Duncan (2006)
• Hitting coach Tim Wallach (2005)
• Third baseman Adrian Beltré (1998-2004)

Inspiration.

The Diamondbacks are above .500 and I’m excited that they could play in the postseason. At the same time, many starting pitchers are on the injured list, and there is delay in the return of Corbin Burnes.  Also, performance at first base, left field, and center field are weak.  Despite limited resources, how will the Diamondbacks improve their chances at the trade deadline?

The Diamondbacks are contending for a Wild Card.

If the season ended today, the Diamondbacks would be a Wild Card in the playoffs.

Looking at the other contenders, since the All Star break the Diamondbacks have played very well against them, which is a positive for tiebreakers, if there are ties at the end of the season.

The following table compares the standings of the Diamondbacks and other contenders for the NL Wild Cards.  Also, it shows the games between the Diamondbacks and those teams since the All Star break – the results of games played and the dates of future games. 

In summary, the Diamondbacks are on track and strongly contending.

Acquisitions made impacts.

Instead of looking at every trade and acquisition, the first step was determine the biggest needs/opportunities of each team in the race.  Acquisitions (in July and August) that filled those needs would likely impact the Wild Card race.  The following table shows which needs were addressed (or not).  It excluded players in the minors. A subjective evaluation of the impact on the Wild Card race is shown in the last column.

Pirates.  My view is that the Pirates are doing everything they can to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.  Camilo Doval (relief pitcher) and Jacob Gonzalez (playing shortstop) will make a positive impact.  Luke Weaver, who was a starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks from 2019 to 2022), was acquired as a relief pitcher with a career best ERA of 1.84. Despite not adding a starting pitcher, my view is they added two wins down the stretch of the Wild Card race.

Phillies. The Phillies made a solid improvement at second base by acquiring Luis Arraez. His batting is much better than Bryson Stott (OPS+ 127 vs 93). His defense at second base is much better (11 OAA vs 6 OAA). In addition, the Phillies acquired relief pitchers Caleb Kilian and Brooks Raley. My view is they added two wins down the stretch in the Wild Card race.

Padres. The Padres acquired twostarting pitchers, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Ray pitched for the Diamondbacks for 6 seasons (2015 to 2020). In the next season (2021), he won the Cy Young. And Mize is having a career best season. My view is they added three wins down the stretch in the Wild Card race.

Nationals.  The Nationals added Connelly Early (starting pitcher who should be off the injured list by late August), Tom Cosgrove & Yovanny Cruz (relief pitchers), and some pitching prospects.  In September, their rotation will likely be at its peak.

On the other hand, the Nationals traded away two of their best batters (Curtis Mead with OPS+ of 134, and Luis Garcia Jr. with OPS+ of 137). In addition they traded away Foster Griffin for four pitching prospects. My take is that the overall impact is near zero.

The Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks need a starting pitcher, a left handed bat (either at first base or the outfield), and a relief pitcher (the recent collapse of Paul Sewald adds an exclamation point).

“There’s been a lot of conversation around a bunch of different stuff.  So we’re mostly in the starting pitching/bat market. Some in the reliever market, just to stay involved in that.” — Mike Hazen

August will be difficult for the Diamondbacks.  In August, they will play two teams contending for a NL Wild Card (Padres and Cubs), plus two first place teams (Dodgers and Braves).  Although every win counts the same, my view is the most important series is with the Padres.  The reason is that winning that 4-game series would make the most impact in keeping the Diamondbacks in a Wild Card position.

“I’m more worried about getting through August than what happens at the end of August and September.  August is going to be particularly challenging for us with no off-days and probably the toughest run of games we’re going to have all year.” —  Mike Hazen

The Diamondbacks added left-handed batter Lars Nootbaar, who plays in the outfield. This season, his batting is much better against right-handed pitchers (.737 OPS vs .483 OPS). He will likely play in left field.

My view is that the Diamondbacks added one win down the stretch in the Wild Card race.

Cardinals. My view is that the Cardinals were the team that did the least to improve their team prior to the trade deadline. My view is that they missed chances to improve their chances of reaching this season’s playoffs.

Summary.

The Diamondbacks are strongly contending for one of the NL Wild Cards. August will be challenging.  Although they met only one of their needs, they improved their chances in the race by acquiring Lars Nootbaar at the trade deadline.

Although they did not acquire a starting pitcher, the Pirates did a lot to meet their needs and make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

Although they did not acquire a starting pitcher, the Phillies made solid improvement in their team to ensure they retain their position as a Wild Card team.

Starting pitching was the primary need (perhaps the only need) for the Padres. It was impressive that they acquired two starting pitchers. They are strong contenders for the third Wild Card in the NL.

The Nationals addressed their pitching needs by trading away two of their top batters. And they traded away a relief pitcher for four prospects. The net impact may be zero.

Of the contenders for a NL Wild Card, the Cardinals did the least to improve their team prior to the trade deadline.

Your new and improved* Braves are here. Fifty games left in the 2026 regular season. Let’s get after it.

*your mileage may vary based on your trade deadline opinions.

August started off in sweet and sweep-y fashion – the Washington Nationals entered the series a game over .500 and left two games under. The Braves are now rocking their first five-game win streak since April.

A new NL East challenger arrives at Truist Park, and they’re going to be looking to cause some chaos. The Miami Marlins (58-55) are tied with San Diego to be just two games behind the Philadelphia Phillies AND Arizona Diamondbacks for a Wild Card berth.

It’s up to Grant Holmes to set the tone to start the series off right. We had hoped that by this time, Holmes (6-4, 3.88 ERA) would have made the official transition from the starting rotation to an incredible long-relief option in the bullpen. But this hasn’t come to pass. In July, Holmes completed five innings in 4/5 games started (and went 4.2 innings in the last one). His best by far was versus the Pirates on July 8, where he only allowed three hits and no runs. He’s looking to bounce back from his worst one, which was the most recent: in the 4.2 innings pitched against the Nationals on July 30, he allowed five hits including three (thankfully solo) homers. Grant hasn’t pitched six innings since June 3.

In his last time out facing Miami in mid-April, Holmes was lifted after four innings after a combination of three hits and two walks led to three runs. The Fish with the most at-bats against Holmes are Xavier Edwards (1-for-8) and Kyle Stowers (0-for-6).

The Marlins will counter with the right-hander Ryan Gusto (0-2, 5.31 ERA). Gusto has split time between the starting role and as a reliever, with eight outings as the former and five as the latter. He had started almost exclusively in the month of June before being optioned, and seemingly eased back in in the bullpen after being recalled on July 9. He made his longest start of the year with this final line against Philadelphia on July 29 by going five… but the rest of the final line? 9 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, and 3 K.

Gusto faced the Braves twice last season in August, and was the losing pitcher for both in lopsided 7-1 and 12-1 Braves victories. He was tagged for three and nine earned runs in those, respectively. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are tied with the most at-bats against him six. Ozzie and Matt Olson have homered off him.

First pitch is at 7:15 pm ET.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Tuesday, August 4, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country.

The trade deadline has passed and with it, most any reason to follow the Royals for the remainder of the year. They don’t have any high-level prospects to get excited about seeing, so it’s mostly going to be about trudging through the muck of the final third of the season and hoping to spot some diamonds in the rough.

Before we get there, though, we should take some time to look at how the Royals did at the trade deadline. We’ve got writeups of each of the trades individually, and Matthew Lamar wrote up some individual grades for the trades as well, so give those a look and then come back here and vote for how you think the Royals did overall. Keeping in mind that even if each individual trade looks good, you might still grade them poorly for not making very many of them.

Don’t forget to sign up for e-mails if you want to be notified to vote in more polls like this one!

Major League Baseball’s trade deadline came and went with excitement for nearly every team as either a seller or a buyer (maybe not the Reds). There was activity all over the league. And some of it will be relevant in the very first series after the deadline for the Red Sox. However there are a couple weeks remaining before we see a big upgrade at catcher. Adley Rutschman looms.

When the Red Sox were in Chicago a few weeks ago, during the winning streak, they swept the series. Since then Boston has largely continued to win. At home. On the road. Day. Night. East, West, and Central. Boston has passed the AL Central division leaders in wins entering this series at 60-51 vs the White Sox 59-52 record. Who saw that coming a month ago?

Davis Martin faced the Red Sox in June and allowed 5 runs in 4.0 innings. He followed that up with a strong start against the Blue Jays (5.2, 1 run) and struggles against the Astros (5.0, 4 runs) and Yankees (6.0, 4 runs). While the White Sox beat the Yankees, this run was mostly a good start against a weaker Toronto offense and lesser performance against the better offensive teams. Boston waited a season and a half to see Patrick Sandoval and as injuries gutted the rotation depth he’s now a permanent fixture. Sandoval will be facing the White Sox for the second time since coming off the IL. The first was a 4.1-inning surprise where he allowed a single run.

The Red Sox missed Sean Burke on the road and it’s probably good they did. He had an incredible July while allowing just 5 runs total (4 earned) over 31.2 innings. A righty who has held both same-side hitters and lefties to mid-.600 OPS totals, he was far more effective in July than June and has more or less gotten better as the season’s gone along. He’s struck out double digit batters in three of his last five starts and recorded 9 Ks in another. This could be a quiet night for the bats if he’s on his game. Sonny Gray had a rough start against Toronto but bounced back with a solid outing against the A’s. He allowed four runs but also tossed 7.0 innings. He’s been everything the Red Sox wanted this season, especially as he’s had to replace rather than support Garret Crochet. He missed the White Sox on the road trip so this will be a fresh team for him on the season.

The Mariners didn’t exactly sell high on Luis Castillo. This whole year has been a downward slide. Lefties are putting up an OPS of nearly .900 against the righty. The strikeouts are down to their lowest level (7.8/9) and he’s allowing hits at the highest rate of his career (9.7/9). Ranger Suarez is making his third start since landing on the IL. The Sox had him on a short leash against the Blue Jays (4.0 innings) and he stuck around a little longer against the Dodgers (4.2 innings) but had given up four runs. He’s tossed exactly one inning against the White Sox in his career way back in 2019, the 6th inning of a game on August 4th. He didn’t allow a hit and recorded one K. That game was started for the Phillies by Drew Smyly.

Munetaka Murakami is off the IL and up to his old tricks. He’s up to 24 home runs on the season.

Old friend Chase Meidroth continues to have a fine season slashing .273/.348/.391.

Another old friend, Andrew Benintendi, had a .957 OPS in June to get his season on track but a lesser July.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Tuesday, August 4: Davis Martin (3.52 ERA / 3.11 FIP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (3.32 ERA /4.15 FIP)

Wednesday, August 5: Sean Burke (3.04 ERA / 3.29 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.93 ERA / 3.62 FIP)

Thursday, August 6: Luis Castillo (5.06 ERA / 4.57 FIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (3.15 ERA / 2.55 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Tuesday, August 4: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, August 5: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Thursday, August 6: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Brady Singer is still a part of the Cincinnati Reds rotation, and he won’t have to waste any time in showing himself as a part of this club going forward.

The Reds first game after Monday’s trade deadline will be a home contest against the Athletics, formerly of Oakland, Sacramento, and currently of Las Vegas, and Singer will get the start for the upstart Redlegs. Cincinnati is fresh off taking 3 of 4 against the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, and they’ve won 4 of 5 series out of the gate since the All Star break in early July.

They are still pretty buried in the standings at the moment, sitting in last place in the NL Central and still 6 games back of the final NL Wild Card game (with 6 teams to jump to earn their way in). Still, Nick Krall & Co. thought it fit to hold on to several veterans who are due to reach free agency at season’s end, and that crew will get at leats a moderate opportunity to make a push towards season’s end and see if they can drum up a miracle.

Righty JT Ginn will start for the A’s in Tuesday’s series opener opposite Singer, with first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET. Top Reds prospect Hector Rodriguez was called up earlier on Tuesday to make his MLB debut, taking over the roster spot from the recently traded Nathaniel Lowe.

This was the 15th week of full minor league play (stats are entering play on Tuesday, August 4th).

According to FanGraphs (which factors in age and proximity to the big leagues), prospect Theo Gillen has usurped Caden Bodine to reign supreme in the system, although both prospects are among the top overall in all of minor league baseball; Gillen ranks 4th while Bodine ranks 16.

Meanwhile, Jacob Kisting was included in the deal to land Liam Hicks from the Miami Marlins, so a new pitcher must be crowned as the top hurler in the system. Basically by default, that goes back to Aidan Cremarosa, who is currently on the IL; Cremarosa ranks 590th among all minor leagues this year.

RUMBLINGS

• It’s promotion day!
  • Dominic Fritton, Brendan Summerhill, and Ryan Cermak are up to High-A
  • Justyn-Henry Malloy and Kody Whitley have been activated from their rehab assignments
• Jack Suwisnki will join Triple-A Durham, he was hitting .291/.386/.562 with 21 HR while in Triple-A for the Dodgers
• Austin Overn was left off of Baseball America’s Hot Sheet, but he enjoyed quite the weekend as he launched 4 HR and stole 3 bases, hitting .400/.478/1.100 over 23 PA

TEAM LEADERS

• Must currently be assigned to that team
• Baseball America’s top ten prospects are featured below each team they’re currently assigned to.
• (minimum of 180 TBF & PA)

Tampa Bay Rays

Top 10 Prospects

• None currently on active roster

Durham Bulls

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .260, Blake Sabol
OBP: .336, Logan Davidson
SLG: .420, Blake Sabol
HR: 11, Carson Williams
wRC+: 94, Blake Sabol
SB: 27, Homer Bush Jr

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 2.64, Evan Reifert
FIP: 3.78, Ty Johnson
K%: 32.5% Ty Johnson
BB%: 8.8%, Chase Solesky
WHIP: 1.07, Ty Johnson
AVG: .185, Evan Reifert
WHIFF%: 14.9%, Ty Johnson

Top 10 Prospects

• #3 Brody Hopkins
  • AAA: 4.93 ERA | 4.86 FIP | 27.1 K% | 21.2 BB% | .195 AVG | 12.0 WHIFF% | 84 IP

Montgomery Biscuits

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .311, Austin Overn
OBP: .394, Austin Overn & Xavier Isaac
SLG: .570, Austin Overn
HR: 20, Will Simpson
wRC+: 151, Austin Overn
SB: 48, Austin Overn

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 3.59, Chris Clark
FIP: 4.49, Chris Clark
K%: 28.4%, Jackson Baumeister
BB%:  2.8%, Santiago Suarez
WHIP 1.09, Chris Clark
AVG: .209, Jackson Baumeister
WHIFF%: 14.9%, Jackson Baumeister

Top 10 Prospects

• #1 Theo Gillen
  • AA: .287/.398/.537 | 18.0 K% | 14.8 BB% | 6 HR | 8 SB | 145 wRC+ | 128 PA
  • A+: .342/.449/.589 | 23.8 K% | 14.3 BB% | 12 HR | 28 SB | 165 wRC+ | 265 PA
    • 6/23: Promoted to Double-A
• #5 Caden Bodine
  • AA: .292/.377/.371 | 5.7 K% | 11.3 BB% | 1 HR | 2 SB | 106 wRC+ | 106 PA
  • A+: .341/.411/.477 | 6.6 K% | 7.3 BB% | 4 HR | 3 SB | 132 wRC+ | 151 PA
  • A: .379/.433/.614 | 3.9 K% | 9.2 BB% | 5 HR | 1 SB | 176 wRC+ | 152 PA
    • 6/30: Promoted to Double-A
    • 5/19: Promoted to High-A
• #10 Santiago Suarez
  • AA: 5.13 ERA | 5.20 FIP | 20.7 K% | 2.8 BB% | .253 AVG | 11.6 WHIFF% | 86 IP

Bowling Green Hot Rods

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .298, Connor Hujsak
OBP: .435, Ryan McCoy
SLG: .590, Connor Hujsak
HR: 25, Connor Hujsak
wRC+: 157, Ryan McCoy
SB: 42, Tony Santa Maria

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 3.83, Noah Beal
FIP: 3.62, Noah Beal
K%: 27.8%, Jack Kartsonas
BB%: 5.4%, Jack Kartsonas
WHIP: 1.33, Jack Kartsonas
AVG: .239, Jack Kartsonas
WHIFF%: 18.2%, Noah Beal

Top 10 Prospects

• #4 Nathan Flewelling
  • A+: .251/.381/.468 | 26.6 K% | 15.9 BB% | 18 HR | 7 SB | 120 wRC+ | 402 PA
• #9 Anderson Brito
  • A+: 3.34 ERA | 4.50 FIP | 28.8 K% | 14.4 BB% | .240 AVG | 13.4 WHIFF% | 32.1 IP
    • 5/23: Placed on 7-day Injured List

Charleston River Dogs

Team Offensive Leaders:
AVG: .354, Brady Marget
OBP: .457, Brady Marget
SLG: .513, Brady Marget
HR: 9, Cooper Flemming
wRC+: 164, Brady Marget
SB: 32, Alberth Palma

Team Pitching Leaders:
ERA: 2.68, Aidan Cremarosa
FIP: 2.67, Aidan Cremarosa
K%: 32.1%, Aidan Cremarosa
BB%: 4.6%, Aidan Cremarosa
WHIP: 0.79, Aidan Cremarosa
AVG: .170, Aidan Cremarosa
WHIFF%: 16.7%, Aidan Cremarosa

Top 10 Prospects

• #6 Cooper Flemming
  • A: .297/.390/.453 | 16.0 K% | 11.5 BB% | 9 HR | 13 SB | 131 wRC+ | 401 PA
• #7 Taitn Gray
  • A: .269/.385/.443 | 23.9 K% | 15.1 BB% | 6 HR | 4 SB | 126 wRC+ | 205 PA
  • CPX: .333/.400/.611 | 20.0 K% | 5.0 BB% | 1 HR | 0 SB | 140 wRC+ | 20 PA
    • 6/1: Placed on the 7-day IL
    • 7/14: Began rehab assignment
• #9 Daniel Pierce
  • A: .252/.336/.390 | 28.6 K% | 7.9 BB% | 4 HR | 6 SB | 101 wRC+ | 140 PA
    • 4/22: Placed on the 7-day IL
    • 5/2: Activated from the IL
    • Hasn’t played since May 30th. Underwent shoulder surgery. Likely out for the year

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Fresh off buying at the trade deadline and riding a hot streak, the San Diego Padres headline my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate. 

Let's dive right into my latest MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 4.

MLB moneyline picks for August 4

Matchup	Pick
Angels vs Orioles	-138
Mets vs Guardians	-141
Athletics vs Reds	-125
Nationals vs Phillies	+251
Cardinals vs Yankees	+178
White Sox vs Red Sox	+125
Marlins vs Braves	+133
Twins vs Royals	+135
Pirates vs Brewers	-141
Dodgers vs Cubs	+190
Giants vs Rangers	+178
Blue Jays vs Astros	-122
Rays vs Rockies	+156
Padres vs Diamondbacks	+108
Tigers vs Mariners	+114

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-4.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 4

Angels vs Orioles: Orioles (-138)

Orioles win probability: 58%

The Birds draw Grayson Rodriguez, who has been flat-out horrendous on the mound this season. The Angels right-hander owns an 8.18 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, while allowing a 47.6% hard hit rate and 11% barrel rate.

The Orioles have cooled off a bit, but Rodriguez is the type of pitcher who can get this lineup rolling again. Expect Baltimore's bats to take advantage.

Mets vs Guardians: Guardians (-141)

Guardians win probability: 58%

I already love Jo Adell in this spot against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea if he's in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I'll gladly back Cleveland here.

Manaea has been brutal on the road this season, posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On the other side, Joey Cantillo has been solid, and his underlying metrics suggest there's even more room for improvement. Over his last five appearances, he owns a 2.45 expected ERA.

Both offenses have been ice cold, so I'll ride with the better arm.

Athletics vs Reds: Reds (-125)

Reds win probability: 56%

The Athletics' offense has been abysmal for weeks now, and despite what we thought we knew about Brady Singer, the guy has been nails.

Over the Reds right-hander's last five starts, he's posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Cincinnati's offense has also picked things up, recording a 110 wRC+, .337 wOBA, and .751 OPS over its last six games.

Pay the juice. Trust the Reds.

Nationals vs Phillies: Nationals (+251)

Nationals win probability: 28%

Yeah, Zack Littell has been pretty bad this year, and Jesus Luzardo has been nails. However, the Nationals still have a very lethal offense. 

+251 is insane. Take the Nats.

Cardinals vs Yankees: Cardinals (+178)

Cardinals win probability: 36%

I'm starting to think the Yankees' name is the only reason they are constantly favored while sporting a 68 wRC+ over their last 12 games.

Ryan Weathers gets the ball for New York tonight, and he's actually been worse at home than on the road, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

On the other side, Hunter Dobbins' underlying metrics over his last five starts point toward positive regression.

I like the Cardinals to replicate last night's success.

White Sox vs Red Sox: White Sox (+125)

White Sox win probability: 45%

With the Red Sox coming off a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers this past week, I expect a bit of a letdown here.

They'll either keep the momentum rolling or come back down to earth, and I'm leaning toward the latter. That was an emotional statement series for Boston, and I think the Chicago White Sox have a chance to catch them at the right time.

Give me the White Sox to sneak out a win tonight.

Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+133)

Marlins win probability: 43%

This feels like a game that could see 20+ runs with Ryan Gusto and Grant Holmes taking the mound. Both guys have been struggling on the rubber lately.

With this matchup feeling more like a coin flip, I'll gladly take the underdog.

Miami's offense has started to heat back up, and even without Liam Hicks, this lineup is dangerous enough to pull off the upset.

Twins vs Royals: Royals (+135)

Royals win probability: 42%

With Joe Ryan posting a 9.82 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts, I'm riding with Kansas City. 

Randy Dobnak has been serviceable over his last five outings, and with both offenses running cold, I'll side with the hotter arm.

Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-141)

Brewers win probability: 58%

I doubt I've written one of these articles where I've faded the Brewers. It's hard to do when they consistently get great pitching, and their offense is always clicking.

The same can't be said for the Pirates, who own a 75 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and .603 OPS over their last 12 games.

Logan Henderson has been nails for Milwaukee, and I expect that to continue tonight. 

Dodgers vs Cubs: Cubs (+190)

Cubs win probability: 34%

Yes, I am dead serious. Take the Cubs.

What team has the biggest target on its back tonight? The Dodgers. Sure, they always do, but with this being Tarik Skubal's debut in Los Angeles, the Cubs will come out with a little extra edge.

Everyone is going to want to spoil the party, and I expect Chicago to claw its way to a win.

Giants vs Rangers: Giants (+178)

Giants win probability: 36%

San Francisco has been on a tear lately, and this price is simply wrong.

The Giants have sported a 113 wRC+ over their last six games, while the Rangers have managed just a 62. On the mound, left-hander MacKenzie Gore has struggled over his last five outings, posting a 6.41 ERA. Meanwhile, Blade Tidwell has looked much better over his last three starts.

There's a ton of value in backing the Giants here.

Blue Jays vs Astros: Astros (-122)

Astros win probability: 55%

I'm not even going to entertain backing an offense that owns an 89 wRC+, .297 wOBA, and .664 OPS over its last 12 games.

I don't care who's pitching for the Astros. I refuse to back one of the most lifeless lineups in baseball, especially with how red hot Houston's bats have been.

Give me the Astros.

Rays vs Rockies: Rockies (+156)

Rockies win probability: 39%

I have to be on the Rockies after the Rays hung two touchdowns on them last night. Expecting a team to replicate that kind of offensive explosion on back-to-back nights is asking a lot.

Add in the fact that this is Freddy Peralta's debut for the Rays, and the Rockies are catching Tampa Bay at the right time.

Give me Colorado to get its revenge at home tonight.

Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (+108)

Padres win probability: 48%

The Diamondbacks have cooled off over their last six games after being one of the hottest teams in baseball for the past few weeks.

Now they draw a red-hot Padres offense that's posted a 124 wRC+, .767 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last six games. Getting San Diego as an underdog feels like the right side.

Randy Vasquez also has solid underlying metrics pointing toward positive regression. Pair that with the hotter bats, and I'll gladly back the Padres tonight. 

Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+113)

Tigers win probability: 47%

The Tigers' offense is on fire right now, posting a 170 wRC+, .413 wOBA, and .967 OPS over its last six games.

On the other side, the Mariners are finally starting to wake up offensively, but Detroit should come out on top in this matchup.

Emerson Hancock has been allowing plenty of hard contact, while Troy Melton has posted a sub-1.00 ERA over his last five starts.

I love the Tigers as a road dog. 

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.