Following a second-half collapse for the ages, the New York Mets spent this past winter reinventing their team. They said let franchise legend Pete Alonso leave for Baltimore in free agency, dealt fellow longtime Met Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semien, saw their two-time NL Reliever of the Year Edwin Díaz leave for the Dodgers, signed former Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette to play third base, came to terms with former Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco to play first base, traded for former Brewers starter Freddy Peralta to be their ace, and signed Luke Weaver and Devin Williams away from the Yankees to reinforce their bullpen.
The end result? A 38-53 record heading into last night’s chaotic 16-12 loss. Manager Carlos Mendoza was kicked to the curb late last month, putting them firmly in the seller’s camp as the Trade Deadline approaches.
For a team playing as badly as they are — the Mets’ Pythagorean record of 39-52 shows that their performance has been no fluke — the Mets actually have a sizeable group of players who could draw quite a bit of value on the market, a testament to the fact that their roster really has been worse than the sum of its parts. While I do think Anthony DiComo’s statement that “the Mets would do well to consider trades for anything not nailed to the floor” is a bit overstated — he names only Nolan McLean, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge as safe, and places Juan Soto in the “too expensive to be easily dealt,” ignoring the fact that teams don’t generally trade players on 15-year deals — the reality is, there’s reasons to discuss, well, pretty much everybody.
Despite high-profile meltdowns from Williams, the Mets have quietly put together one of the game’s better bullpen units this year, as their 3.6 fWAR and 3.69 ERA rank sixth, and their 15.8 K-BB% third. After a rough start to the season, old friend Weaver has looked like the 2024 version of himself that helped the Yankees to the World Series, as he has not given up an earned run since April 30th; in that span he has racked up 34 strikeouts in 26 innings, allowing just 18 baserunners. Veteran Huascar Brazobán has been excellent at limiting soft contact this year, and can both provide length out of the ‘pen and pitch in high leverage situations. Furthermore, both players are under team control for next season. Southpaws A.J. Minter (0.56 ERA in 16 innings) and Brooks Raley (2.23 ERA in 32 innings) are both impending free agents, so they’d be pure rentals, but they’d also be cheaper because of that.
The Mets rotation has not been nearly as effective as the bullpen, but still may attract interest. Clay Holmes is currently on the 60-day injured list with a broken leg after being hit by a comebacker off the bat of Spencer Jones on May 15th, and looks to start a rehab assignment after the break. The former Yankees closer has taken to starting much better than anyone could have expected, and represents the closest thing to an ace that the Mets have to trade; his bullpen experience may even make him more valuable, as teams with rotation depth (e.g., the Yankees) could bring him in knowing that he would be comfortable coming on in relief during the postseason. Other than him, the Mets don’t really have any sure bets. Peralta, Kodai Senga, and Sean Manaea have all put together mixed performances, at best, and while a dearth of pitching may inspire a contending team to roll the dice that a change of scenery will help — they have pitched like aces in the not-too-distant past — question marks abound.
Given the team’s 89 OPS+, it should come as no surprise that the lineup isn’t exactly filled with players that most teams would be interested in. If it becomes clear that Bichette plans to opt out despite his lackluster performance (.260/.305/.385 slash line, good for a 92 wRC+), then expect to see him traded — though he does have a no-trade clause and a move would need approval.
Bichette’s relatively solid Statcast data might make him an interesting add for a team in need of infield help, and he did hit .311/.357/.483 just last year while playing in the same division. But said opt-out does complicate matters, as otherwise, Bichette will make $42 million next year and potentially another $42 million in 2028. Ownership would have to approve the expense risk, and it never really sounded like the Yankees were in play for Bo this past offseason.
Reports have suggested that the Soto/Lindor relationship has deteriorated significantly since becoming teammates, leading to vague rumors that the Mets may trade Lindor. Now, I don’t think that’ll happen this year: Lindor is under contract through 2031, and despite Steve Cohen’s attempts to place Soto at the front and center of the Mets’ marketing, the longtime shortstop remains the face of the franchise among many Mets fans. But if the relationship, which strikes me as somewhat akin to the Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez relationship of the mid-2000s, deteriorates any further … well, let’s just say, a future trade seems a very real possibility. If that happens, the Yankees should at least check in (even though it’s unlikely the Mets would send him across town), because Lindor was worth 6.3 fWAR last season, and players like that don’t grow on trees.
To my surprise, there has been reports that the Mets may dangle catcher/designated hitter Francisco Alvarez. About to hit arbitration this winter after his age-24 season, Alvarez has not quite lived up to his potential as the third overall prospect. He has struggled to put together a complete season, having been limited to 100 games or fewer in three of his four full seasons, and his pitch framing has rapidly gone in the wrong direction. But power-hitting catchers are hard to find, and he did have a .950 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season. While I expect the Yankees to be more interested in Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers, if Alvarez is made available, he might be the Mets position player most of interest to the Yankees.
Had they not existed in the same city, the Yankees and Mets look like ideal trade partners, especially if the Mets opt to trade their young catcher. But trades between crosstown rivals aren’t exactly common, and while I do think the Cohen Mets are less likely than the Wilpon Mets to have serious trade discussions, the two teams have only made 16 deals in their history, of which five were simple player purchases. If the Yankees want to match up, they may have to pay an extra New York City tax.
