There is a lot to like about the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-1 win over the Calgary Flames on Wednesday night. It was not only another workman-like win where they outplayed another opponent, but they did it without their top-two defenseman in Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. Calgary might not be a particularly good team, but that is still two points you want to get. Not only given the fact it is two points in the standings, not only because of who you were playing without, but also because you know you are going to have a tough game on Thursday night against the Edmonton Oilers in the second-half of the back-to-back. They did what they needed to do.
It also put them, for the time-being, in second place in the Metropolitan Division as they head into Game No. 50 of the 2025-26 regular season on Thursday night. We are not really talking about a small sample size of games for the season. They are more than halfway through the season and not only still collecting points like a playoff team, they are also playing like a playoff team.
They have a top-10 points percentage in the NHL and for the season are top-10 across the board in expected goal share, scoring chance share and high-danger scoring chance share. Over the past 25-30 games they have also started to defend at a really high level when it comes to suppressing shots, scoring chances and expected goals. They have the results and they have the process. It is all encouraging.
There are a lot of factors at play in this.
Obviously Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still playing great, and that changes the math on things and the overall expectations.
Head coach Dan Muse has brought a new voice and injected a new energy into the team.
Kyle Dubas has also been on a roll in terms of his roster moves and piecing together the roster and the future. That is the thing I want to focus on today.
When Dubas took over the Penguins job he was not exactly inheriting the best situation. The prospect pool was among the worst in the NHL, they had spent significant draft assets for years and had a relatively empty cupboard of picks, and had just seen their playoff streak end with a very flawed NHL roster. In his first offseason he took some pretty significant swings and tried to go all in on winning right away. It did not work. There were mistakes. There were bad moves. Things did not work.
From the start of the 2024-25 season, however, Dubas has been on an absolute roll in terms of his moves. It has produced a pretty good hockey team right now, some real long-term roster and salary cap flexibility, a rapidly improved farm system and a cupboard full of draft pick capital.
Let’s recap some of it.
Buying draft picks by taking on bad contracts created more trade opportunities
Going into the 2024-25 season the Penguins had real salary cap flexibility for the first time in years, and they put a lot of that to use by taking on some bad contracts to stockpile draft picks.
- They received a second-round pick from the St. Louis Blues in exchange for taking on the remainder of Kevin Hayes’ contract.
- They built off of that move by flipping that pick back to the Blues so they could use it for an offer-sheet, with the Penguins receiving St. Louis’ second-round pick in 2026 and a third-round pick in 2025. They basically got two draft picks for nothing other than taking on some salary and hiding Hayes in the lineup.
- Along with the Hayes move in 2024, they also acquired third-and sixth-round picks from Nashville in exchange for Jordan Frasca and taking on Cody Glass’ contract.
- That resulted in trading Glass at the deadline, along with minor league forward Jonathan Gruden, for Chase Stillman, Max Graham and a 2027 third-round pick. The third-round pick was the key piece of that deal, meaning the Penguins essentially added two third-round picks and a sixth-round pick for Jordan Frasca and Jonathan Gruden. That is a win in terms of asset management.
- Before this season the Penguins acquired a 2028 second-round pick from Dallas in exchange for defenseman Vladislav Kolyachonok and taking on Matt Dumba’s remaining contract.
- Those additional picks proved to be significant, with the Penguins trading that 2026 Blues pick, as well as one of their additional 2027 third-round picks, for forward Egor Chinakhov a few weeks ago. Chinakhov is still young, still extremely talented, and is off to a great start with the Penguins. It is a good gamble, even if it does not not pan out long-term.
- Even with that move the Penguins still have multiple picks in the second-and third-rounds in each of the next three classes.
None of these moves on their own are cornerstone moves or the type of thing that are going to move the needle much in a rebuild, or re-tool, or whatever you want to call it. They are, however, small little wins. Like I said on Tuesday, a bunch of small little wins add up into big wins.
The 2025 Trade Deadline looks like huge win
With realistic playoff expectations slipping away mid-way through the 2024-25 season, and with some pending unrestricted free agents they were probably were not going to re-sign, the Penguins went into another sell mode in advance of the 2025 trade deadline.
- They traded defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor, both pending UFAs, to the Vancouver Canucks for the New York Rangers 2025 first-round pick, Vincent Desharnais, Danton Heinen and Melvin Fernstrom.
- Desharnais and Heinen were nothing more than roster-filler, and both have already been traded. Heinen as part of the Chinakhov deal, and Desharnais for the San Jose Sharks fifth-round pick in 2028. Fernstrom is at least an intriguing prospect.
- The first-round pick was the key piece of that deal, and it ended up being the No. 12 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. The Penguins then flipped that pick on draft day for picks No. 22 and 31. After selecting Bill Zonnon with the No. 22 overall pick, the Penguins traded pick No. 31 and pick No. 59 (which was acquired at the deadline from the Washington Capitals for rental forward Anthony Beauvillier) to the Los Angeles Kings for pick No. 24 which was used to select forward Will Horcoff. Zonnon and Horcoff are both now among the Penguins top prospects, and very intriguing prospects.
- Along with that, they added another branch to the Jake Guentzel trade tree by sending forward Michael Bunting to the Nashville Predators for forward Tommy Novak and defenseman Luke Schenn. Novak has been a very solid middle-six player for the Penguins this season that has played a variety of roles. Not a star, but a talented player that is going to score 15-20 goals with 45-50 points on an affordable contract. There is value in that. They then turned around and immediately dealt Schenn to the Winnipeg Jets for their second-round pick in 2026 and their fourth-round pick in 2027. With Winnipeg sitting near the bottom of the NHL standings, that second-round pick is looking way more valuable than it did at the time of the trade.
- The trade that received almost no headlines at the time was the acquisition of forward Connor Dewar and defenseman Conor Timmins from the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a fifth-round pick. Dewar has become a key part of the Penguins strong fourth line, while Timmins was flipped on draft day for the No. 39 overall pick in the draft (defenseman Peyton Kettles) and defenseman Connor Clifton.
Again, a lot of little small wins adding up into one big advantage.
The current result of those in-season trade deadline moves has been:
Penguins traded: Marcus Pettersson, Drew O’Connor, Michael Bunting, Cody Glass, Jonathan Gruden, Anthony Beauvillier
Penguins acquired/currently have: Tommy Novak, No. 22 overall pick (Bill Zonnon), No. 24 overall pick (Will Horcoff), No. 37 overall pick (Peyton Kettles), Conor Dewar, Connor Clifton, Winnipeg’s 2025 second-round pick and San Jose’s 2028 fifth-round pick.
That is three of the top-39 picks in a draft class (Zonnon, Horcoff and Kettles), two productive NHL players (Novak and Dewar), a depth defenseman (Clifton), another potential top-40 pick in this year’s draft (Winnipeg’s second-round pick), Winnipeg’s 2027 fourth-round pick and San Jose’s 2028 fifth-round pick.
That is a lot of value, both current and potential, for three pending non-elite free agents and two organizational depth guys.
Ben Kindel looks like a player
The Penguins did not have any sort of NHL Draft Lottery luck, falling two spots when the numbers were actually drawn. They still ended up coming away with what looks to be a really good player in center Ben Kindel. Kindel is Dubas’ highest draft pick with the Penguins, and the early returns on it look outstanding.
Even though Kindel is in an extended goal drought, the fact he is more than holding his own as an 18-year-old center in the NHL, as a non-top-five pick, is largely unprecedented in the modern NHL. He is still on pace for more than 40 points this season while also playing an extremely advanced two-way game. He may not be a superstar, but he looks like a player that has an outstanding 15-year career ahead of him as a top-of-the-lineup player.
When you add in the aforementioned moves to get Zonnon, Horcoff and Kettles and that draft class significantly altered the Penguins prospect pool in a very positive way. While the farm system is still lacking a truly elite cornerstone player, there are at least future NHL players here. That is a complete 180 difference from what it was when Dubas was hired.
Bargain free agent signings are paying off
The expectation for the free agent signing of Anthony Mantha was that he would probably be this year’s version of Anthony Beauvillier. A cheap, low-risk veteran that would get plugged into a top-six role, score some goals and then get flipped at the trade deadline for a second-round pick.
Even with the Penguins in playoff contention, that very well still could happen. But going into play on Thursday he is already up to 14 goals and 32 points in 49 games, and has been a great bargain signing. Keep in mind, Beauvillier had just 13 goals and 20 points in 63 games before he was traded for that second-round pick.
Then there is Justin Brazeau, who was signed to a two-year contract worth just $1.5 million per season. He has already set a career high in goals (14) in just 35 games, while also showcasing surprisingly smooth hands for a big, power forward. He has been a late-bloomer, and eventually a productive player, at every level he has played at. Even if there is some shooting percentage regression in the second half or next season, he at least looks like a solid depth player at a cheap rate.
Defenseman Parker Wotherspoon’s two-year, $1 million per year deal has also produced more than reasonably expected. He has taken advantage of his biggest opportunity in the NHL yet and showed he can at least be a capable depth player.
None of this even gets into the addition of Rutger McGroarty or the Tristan Jarry trade, which were two other significant trades over the past two seasons.
The jury is ultimately still out on a lot of this. We have no idea how those draft picks are going to develop, what the Penguins are going to do over the next few months this season and what sort of form this rebuild is going to take on in the coming seasons. The fact remains that Dubas has built what looks to at least be a playoff contending team this season, while the Penguins still have one of the best long-term salary cap situations in the NHL, a rapidly improved farm system and more draft pick capital than any other team in the NHL.
He had some huge — and bad — misses in his first year. He has been on a roll ever since. The Penguins are better for it this season and arguably much better for it in the future.
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