While the official start to offseason free agency is less than a month old, teams are beginning to slow down with their roster maneuvering after a flurry of opening-week moves. With the dust settling, the team dove into the Pistons’ offseason so far.
1. The offseason is far from over, but it seems the Pistons’ offseason is near completion. Where do you think the Jalen Duren negotiations land?
Brady Fredericksen: I don’t see a world where he isn’t back. The FO likes him, Cade Cunningham likes him — it’s going to come together… just not as Duren or his agent envisioned. I’m guessing he lands a deal in the $35 million a year range over 3-4 years, which is likely $10-15 million less than he wants and more than the Pistons want to pay him. I could see him talking a shorter deal to get another swing at that max-level contract sooner, though.
Wes Davenport: I’ll guess a 4-year, $150M deal with a player option at the end of it. At this point, I just can’t imagine he turns down a contract to take the QO, so his camp pushes for a player option to save face.
Justin Lambregetse: The Pistons will split the difference with Jalen Duren and come to an agreement on a contract for $40 million a year in the next week or two. I don’t think they let this drag out into August.
Robbie Bettelon: He gets 5-years, $180 million. It’s basically the same total any other team can offer him ($177m), but over five years instead of four. This feels like a fair middle ground ($36m AAV) for both sides.
Brennan Sims: He’ll be back in Detroit on an Alperen Şengün-type deal ($185M/5Y). Maybe even a little less. I don’t see another ending to this story. Duren was phenomenal in the regular season, but the playoff woes were enough to pump the super-max brakes, especially in the second apron era.
Austin Flores: The Pistons probably want to keep it close to $30 million annually, and I think that would be fair given the totality of last season for Duren. There are only a select few big men in the league who are really worth a significant percentage of a team’s cap, and we’ve seen several teams make the mistake of overpaying bigs that don’t fit that mold. That’s not to say Duren isn’t a contributor to winning and can’t get better at 22, but with his limitations as a creator on offense, it’s hard to justify.
Max Sturm: I think they land somewhere in the middle, like others have said. The Pistons have some things going for them here. There doesn’t seem to be any other serious suitors for Duren at this stage in the game. The second apron continues to spook teams into making large commitments to guys who aren’t top 15 players. If Boston wanted out of the Jaylen Brown business, why would they want to turn around and max Duren? People forget that restricted free agency often goes into the late summer. I’m not sweating this…yet.
2. What is your favorite move this offseason and least favorite (or lack thereof) move?
Brady: Isaiah Joe is my favorite add by far. He’s one of the great shooters in the NBA, and we saw how valuable those types are. OKC and Philly were both oodles better with him on the floor. He’s a winner. The Pistons’ spacing was a hell of a lot better when they had two 3-point aces in Malik Beasley + Tim Hardaway Jr. As for my least favorite move, it’s related: the lack of an established, off-the-bounce scorer. Joe fills a big need, but I’m not ready to give the keys to Ebuka Okorie as the other outside scorer/creator yet.
Wes: My favorite move is probably the rookie, Okorie. We had Stephen Gillaspie on the Pindown before the draft, and he really solidified my already high opinion of Okorie. He has a high ceiling and offers something the Pistons plainly do not have — the ability to create a half-court paint touch at will in isolation. My least favorite would have to be losing Tobias Harris to the Spurs. Both because I’ll miss Harris’s game and locker room leadership, and because he went to the Spurs.
Justin: I really love the Joe trade. I think he’s better and cheaper than any shooter the Pistons could have gotten on the market this year, and only trading 2 seconds is not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.
Robbie: My favorite move is getting Joe for two seconds as I expect him to start and have a career year next to Cad. I also enjoy the archetype of John Collins at power forward for this team over the Tobias archetype, but I have some frontcourt depth concerns. One Jalen Duren sprained ankle means a center rotation of Paul Reed and Tolu Smith with no true backup PF.
Brennan: It hurts to lose Tobias from a shot-making and leadership perspective, but Collins is more comfortable sitting in the corner acting as a spacer. That could help the offense and clear the lane a bit for the core three. He’ll need to up his volume and remain efficient from deep to be a true spacer, but the pickup is interesting. He’s a great lob threat for Cade when he does cut. Detroit hasn’t addressed the creation hole on their team in a major way. Maybe Okorie can prove that wrong.
Austin: We may look back at gaining Joe for just 2 second round picks as one of the bigger steals Detroit has made in a while. I think he has a lot more to give than what he showed in OKC, and that’s probably not a secret. He certainly fills a much-needed role for this team in the short term, with potential for maybe being a part of larger plans if things break right for him. But for next season, Joe undoubtedly makes them better.
Max: My favorite move by far was the Joe trade. For the first time since drafting Çade, the Pistons can surround him with 2-3 elite shooters in each lineup. This team can trot out lineups like the ones the Cavs and Lakers surrounded prime LeBron with. Cade has shown he is that special. Losing Isaiah Stewart stings, as he was a massive part of the culture shift and defensive identity in Detroit. With Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland and Daniss Jenkins sticking around, plus J.B. Bickerstaff still manning the sidelines, there should still be enough there for this team to be a top 10 defense.
3. Assume the Duren situation plays out how you expect, grade Trajan Langdon’s third offseason in Detroit.
Brady: The lack of a real difference-making addition puts me at about a C-minus. The whole thing is “I guess.” I wanted more this summer and, though I’m not oblivious to the circumstances around a lot of their reported targets, I just don’t think the team is better suited to win the East. It’s about what it was last year, except it makes more sense offensively. The lack of a true sidekick scorer outside for Cade is glaring, and their status in a much-improved East will make for an extremely interesting trade deadline.
Wes: C-plus, expectations are a b****. If you told me, when the season ended, this would be the offseason, I would have been happy, though bummed to lose Harris and Stew. But as the rumors started to swirl, from Herro to Kawhi to Murphy III and even Reaves, the idea of that big swing became more tantalizing. Ultimately, the price was too high. That bit of disappointment from what could have been holds back a stronger grade.
Justin: I’d give him a B. I like going all in on adding shooting if the price for getting a secondary creator is too much. I like the John Collins signing in a vacuum, but losing Tobias in the process does worry me a bit. Add that on to also losing Stew and you are really banking on Cade and Ausar (and Duren) to take on the mantle as the culture setters. I think they are ready for it and will all get better, but not being able to get a secondary creator does leave me worried come playoff time.
Robbie: I’ll give this offseason a B-minus. I was hoping Murphy III was going to be the prize catch this summer, but the idea of getting a bunch of 40% three-point shooters to surround Cade/Ausar/Duren has grown on me. This roster seems constructed to give additional playmaking duties to Ausar and Duren in the starting lineup while being able to make that bigger move at February’s deadline. I’m on board for seeing how Detroit’s Big 3 operate with the most spacing they’ve had yet.
Brennan: A solid B seems fine. Detroit needs shooting and creating around their superstar. Joe, Taurean Prince and Collins were good shooting additions, and Duncan Robinson should be back next year. You wanted to see Detroit snag a more established creator, but there weren’t a ton of guys available and willing to come to Detroit who fit that bill. Murphy III was supposedly available, but the Pelicans’ asking price was a bit rich. I understand the hesitancy.
Austin: If a Duren (and possibly Ausar) signing is truly the end of this offseason, I’ll give it a C-. It’s been reported that Langdon tried to get Cade as his running mate but fell short of his top options. At this point, it makes sense to play out the first half of the season and try to get a Robin during the deadline when the asking price is lower. But even with some of the additions I like, they not only missed out on finding a secondary scorer but also lost their best one from last season in Tobias. Collins brings a unique skillset, but he’s not the type of player you can run an offense through like we saw with Harris in the playoffs. Not to mention losing their best front-court defender, and did nothing to really supplement that. They improved in some areas like shooting, but if Detroit doesn’t at least find a serviceable/seasoned player to get buckets before the season starts, I’d be concerned.
Max: I’ll give them a B-. The team got loads of shooting around Cunningham, which should help them maximize his skill set. But this iteration has less secondary creation and scoring than last year’s team did, and that is a major concern. It’s been rumored that the team went after Kevin Durant and Murphy III, but it ultimately takes two to tango, and Langdon can’t be faulted there. If Ausar shows that he can consistently do more with the ball in his hands or Jenkins takes a step as a scorer/creator, maybe this turns into a B+ or A-. But as it stands, losing Tobias hurts as he was the only other guy who could routinely get his own shot beyond Cade. I’d love to know who Detroit was bidding against for Kevin Huerter’s services. I would have much rather seen the team bring back Luke Kennard or Tim Hardwaway, Jr. as both inked shorter and cheaper deals than Huerter. That move alone makes a B feel generous.
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As always, play along and let us know your thoughts in the comments!
1. The offseason is far from over, but it seems the Pistons’ offseason is near completion. Where do you think the Jalen Duren negotiations land?
2. What is your favorite move this offseason and least favorite (or lack thereof) move?
3. Assume the Duren situation plays out how you expect, grade Trajan Langdon’s third offseason in Detroit.
