Life after Ranger: Evaluating Painter, Phillies' 2026 rotation originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Starting pitching has been the Phillies’ bread and butter over the past two seasons.
Since the start of 2024, the Phillies own a tied-for-league-best .590 winning percentage, and their starting pitchers have driven much of that success. Over that span, Philadelphia ranks first in the National League in ERA (3.69) and opponents’ OPS (.691) and second in Major League Baseball in strikeouts (1,817).
With pitchers and catchers reporting in just under two weeks, it’s fair to evaluate this staff a bit differently than in years past. Ranger Suárez is now in Boston, leaving the staff with one fewer reliable arm.
The margin between the rotation and the bullpen has narrowed. The relief group appears deeper and more stable, while legitimate questions exist near the back end of the rotation.
Those questions, however, do not begin at the top.
Sánchez enters 2026 as the ace
Cristopher Sánchez is positioned for another dominant season in his first year as the Phillies’ unquestioned ace and projected Opening Day starter.
Sánchez went 13-5 in 2025 with a 2.50 ERA and a league-leading 8.0 bWAR, completing his first 200-inning season — a “personal goal” he had entering the year. His profile remains unique, relying on a three-pitch mix that saw velocity gains across the board last season.
His best weapon continues to be his changeup, particularly against right-handed hitters. Since 2023, opposing batters have hit just .169 against the pitch. Sánchez leaned into it even more last season, increasing its usage by five percent to 37.4 percent.
Given his year-over-year growth and command profile, Sánchez appears poised to pitch himself into another Cy Young-caliber season and remains one of the most effective left-handed starters in baseball.
Luzardo enters a pivotal contract year
Entering his contract year, Jesús Luzardo is positioned to take on added responsibility following Suárez’s departure.
While his first season in Philadelphia featured inconsistency, it also showcased the ceiling that made him a priority acquisition. Over his first 11 starts in 2025, Luzardo posted a 2.15 ERA — sixth-best in the Majors during that stretch. His final 11 starts mirrored that performance, producing a 2.84 ERA and a 2.65 FIP.
Between those two runs, however, came a difficult 10-start stretch in which Luzardo recorded an 8.04 ERA — the worst mark in baseball during that span (Luis Severino ranked second at 6.37).
Despite the turbulence, Luzardo’s NLDS Game 2 start against the Dodgers helped reset the narrative. After entering the postseason with a 7.71 ERA across three career playoff starts, he delivered six innings of two-run ball in a high-leverage environment.
Luzardo led the Phillies in wins (15) and starts (32) last season. With Suárez gone and a contract year looming, Philadelphia will lean heavily on him to provide consistency behind Sánchez.
Wheeler’s health looms large
From there, the rotation becomes less certain.
Zack Wheeler’s outlook remains difficult to project. While the vascular form of surgery used to address thoracic outlet syndrome has produced improved outcomes historically, Wheeler will turn 36 at the end of May and has openly discussed the possibility of retirement when he reaches free agency in 2028.
There has been progress, but no guarantees.
“I don’t know where Wheeler’s going to be at spring training,” manager Rob Thomson said recently. “He’s out to 90 feet right now. He looks good, but there’s no guarantees when he’s going to get up on the mound or when he eventually will.”
If Wheeler is ready for Opening Day, expecting roughly 170 quality innings is reasonable, though expectations must be tempered given the injury. An ERA in the 3.30–3.50 range would represent solid No. 2 starter production, and his postseason track record only increases his value if healthy.
Nola searching for consistency
For Aaron Nola, effectiveness remains the primary concern, even after an injury-riddled 2025.
Before landing on the injured list with a right ankle sprain, Nola made nine starts and posted a 6.16 ERA. A subsequent rib injury delayed his return, and his first four starts back were even rougher, producing an 8.38 ERA.
His final four starts, however, offered some optimism. Over that stretch, Nola posted a 3.91 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, convincing Thomson to hand him the ball in Game 3 of the NLDS. Nola responded with two scoreless innings before giving way to Suárez.
Nola is just one year removed from leading the league with 33 starts and posting a 3.57 ERA. With a full offseason and Spring Training — including participation with Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic — the Phillies would gladly accept production in that range from a projected fourth starter.
Walker vs. Painter at the back end
If Wheeler is available to begin the season, the Phillies’ preference is clear: competition for the fifth rotation spot between Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.
That preference may already be leaning one direction, though. “You’ve got Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola, Taijuan and Painter, and I like those guys,” Thomson said. “Wheeler’s not far behind.”
Walker and Painter occupying the back end of the rotation presents different challenges.
Walker, now 33, has posted a 4.88 ERA across three seasons with Philadelphia. His struggles against high-end competition have been particularly pronounced. Since 2023, he owns a 6.67 ERA in 21 starts against playoff teams, with opponents hitting .306.
Walker is in the final year of his four-year, $72 million contract, and Wheeler’s uncertainty complicates any effort to move him via trade.
As a starter, expectations should be modest. Walker did find success in relief last season, posting a 3.15 ERA in 13 bullpen outings while holding opponents to a .647 OPS.
Painter represents the higher-upside option, but questions remain. In his first full season following Tommy John surgery — which cost him two years — command proved to be the biggest obstacle.
At the Major League level last season, none of the 339 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings finished with a first-pitch strike rate below 50 percent.
In the minors, Painter posted a 48.8 percent first-pitch strike rate, allowing hitters to sit in fastball counts. This would have tied the lowest big-league percentage since 2021. That lack of early-count control was a major factor in his 5.40 ERA at Triple-A.
If MLB’s No. 28 prospect can stay ahead in counts, his six-pitch arsenal certainly plays. Spring Training will offer the Phillies a clearer evaluation of whether Painter is ready.
Depth options and outside possibilities
If Walker struggles, Painter isn’t ready, or injuries arise, the Phillies may need to explore alternatives.
Internally, starting options on the 40-man roster are limited but notable. Seth Johnson, converted to relief last season, had a strong 2024 as a starter, posting a 2.73 ERA in 95.2 innings across 25 starts at Double-A and Triple-A. Alan Rangel made 25 Triple-A starts last season and recorded a 4.55 ERA.
Hard-throwing Yoniel Curet, acquired this winter, possesses big-league velocity but profiles more naturally as a bullpen arm due to command concerns. Jean Cabrera and Moisés Chace have also found success at Double-A and could push for consideration with strong springs.
Free agency still offers veteran depth options willing to accept minor-league deals with guaranteed-elevators. Former Phillie Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin and José Urquidy remain available, though a significant signing appears unlikely unless Walker is moved.
The outlook
The Phillies’ rotation should remain a strength.
It’s anchored by an ace, supported by veterans who should be healthier than they were six months ago, includes two pitchers in contract years, and features one of the highest-upside rookie arms in the game.
Spring Training will provide clarity, but with J.T. Realmuto back behind-the-plate, there is ample reason for optimism, even with the questions that remain.
Kurt Helin
