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After cashing our best bet and same-game parlay yesterday, we're back with my Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction for Friday night.

The Toronto Blue Jays will be in tough today as they navigate a bullpen day against the New York Yankees and Cam Schlittler, but I think their offense can help keep it close.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for August 21, and fatten that wallet before the weekend.

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Blue Jays team total Over 2.5 (-125)

Don't look now, but this Toronto Blue Jays offense is hummin', and has gone Over this total in six straight games.

It's a different offense than it was the last time the Jays took on the New York Yankees and Cam Schlittler, who's limited this team to a .252 xBA across 104 plate appearances.

Offense has come from the entire lineup over the last month and change, but nobody has been hotter than Alejandro Kirk, who has 15 hits, three homers, and nine RBI across his nine-game hit streak.

Look for this team to scrape and claw to get three or more runs on the board, especially at one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the big leagues.

COVERS INTEL: Speaking of hot hitters, nobody is hotter than Ernie Clement in this matchup. Clement is 5-for-12 with a .340 xBA against Schlittler.

Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Yes, the Blue Jays will be going with a bullpen day, but it's a 'pen that's ranked the seventh-best in baseball (3.74 ERA), and one that's rested thanks to Shane Bieber going seven innings yesterday. That should be enough for Toronto to keep things close in a likely low-scoring affair.

Elsewhere, Clement has a variety of ways to cash this bet, and it helps that he feels right at home at Yankee Stadium, owning a .288 average with 17 hits, 12 RBI, and two homers.

Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP

• Blue Jays +1.5
• Blue Jays team total Over 2.5
• Ernie Clement 2+ H/R/RBI

Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+550)

Kazuma Okamoto has hit two homers in his last three games, and has one against Schlittler in his rookie season, too. Okamoto's in the 83rd percentile for barrel percentage (12.5%) and is in a good spot to go yard at Yankee Stadium... again.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (+170) | New York (-210)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Yankees trend

The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four series openers. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info

Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Yankees weather

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The Atlanta Braves just recorded a much-needed win against the White Sox as they travel to
Milwaukee to start one of the toughest stretches of their schedule. After the Brewers the Braves must face the Dodgers. After a short break where they face a six-game stretch against the Rockies, Giants, and Nationals they face then have seven games against the Phillies with the Rays sandwiched in-between.

If the Braves want to maintain their lead in the NL East during this rough stretch of schedule, they will need to pick up on their offense, which ranks as the ninth worst in MLB in terms of total runs.

In the game today, their likely won’t be much offense from either team as we have a pitching matchup that many dream about among two likely Cy Young finalists. Chris Sale, a likely Hall of Famer will face off against phenom and Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski.

Misiorowski was the second fastest to two hundred strikeouts behind the Braves’ Spencer Strider and sports a dazzling 1.75 and 0.75 WHIP. Chris Sale has been fantastic himself with a 2.16 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 129.0 innings while having the best HR9 and BB9 in the NL.

It will be interesting this afternoon for Sale because over his last five starts he has given up three earned runs each in two games but has given up zero in his other three starts (we are not counting that terrible scoring call last game where Dubón clearly should have been charged with an error).

Sale is clearly a veteran, but somehow many of the Brewers have not faced him much in their career. Outside of backup catcher Gary Sánchez with his twenty-nine ABs against Sale, no one else on the roster has more than twelve. Jackson Chourio is the player with twelve ABs and has been successful with an OPS of .917. There are a few other players with limited success against Sale as well. Contreras has a .888 OPS in nine ABs, Vaughn has a .804 OPS in seven ABs, and Ortiz has a .864 OPS in ten ABs.

Fortunately, all the other players who have faced Sale in the past have struggled mightily.

Misiorowski is the clear frontrunner for the Cy Young Award and that has carried over in the limited times he has faced Braves hitters. No player on the Braves have faced him more than three ABs, but also no one has an OPS over .666. Riley, Smith, Albies, and Dubón all have one hit against Misiorowski, but they were all singles.

This game may come down to the bullpen, and that is not a good sign for the Braves. The Brewers have the best bullpen ERA in MLB since the start of August with 1.57. The next best team has a 2.76. The Braves on the other hand have a bullpen ERA of 4.05 in that time span.

On paper, the Brewers seem to have an upper hand. However, anything can happen in baseball so there is a chance the Braves can pull this off. It will require the offense to catch a spark against the best pitcher on the planet or the hottest bullpen in MLB.

First pitch is at 4:10 EDT.  

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, August 21st, 4:10 pm EDT

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Eighteen years ago, the Blue Jays traded Robinzon Diaz to the Pirates in exchange for Jose Bautista. At the time, the trade received little fanfare—even Bluebird Banter didn’t cover it immediately. Only later did we discuss its significance. In hindsight, it became the best trade of J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure.

The news did get into a post I did a couple of days later:

With Diaz sent to Pittsburgh to complete the Bautista trade, he comes off our top 11 prospect list. I wasn’t sure how to feel about it. Diaz had struggled that year and J.P. Arencibia likely surpassed him, but I still thought Diaz was closer to being major league ready. Looking ahead, we’d need a catcher for next season—or risk a lot of passed balls.

I missed that one.

The next day, I posted a poll about the trade: 48% of readers liked the move, while 52% did not. Amusingly, I had thought Bautista was a middle infielder back then.

A few days later, I linked to a FanGraphs story, “Pirates Plunder Toronto,” and said this:

I also shared a FanGraphs article titled “Pirates Plunder Toronto.” At the time, I disagreed with the idea that the Jays were ‘plundered.’ While I liked Diaz, I doubted he’d become a star. I figured the trade would ultimately be inconsequential for both teams. But time would prove me wrong.

Wrong again.

It took him a few days to get his first hit as a Blue Jay.

It took about a year before we realized Bautista deserved more than a platoon role.

Ultimately, the trade was a big win for Toronto. Jose Bautista compiled a 37.0 WAR as a Blue Jay, according to Baseball Reference. Diaz, by contrast, played just 44 major league games.

Jose quickly became one of my favourite players to watch. His intensity and desire to win stood out, and he regularly helped his teammates with advice and support. Sometimes, I wished he’d show more joy on the field, but critics would likely complain no matter his demeanor.

Bautista often drew criticism, which is a common burden for a team’s best player—especially when the team falls short. I remember, as a kid, watching Gary Carter get blamed for the Expos’ disappointments and wondering why the less talented players escaped such scrutiny.

Acquiring Bautista was a turning point for the franchise. The team gained swagger and identity, and Bautista became the kind of player opposing fans loved to hate. As Reggie Jackson famously said, ‘People don’t boo nobodies.’

I can’t imagine—and wouldn’t want to—what those seasons would have been like without Bautista. His presence made them far more enjoyable.

Favorite memories?

• The iconic bat flip perfectly encapsulated Jose’s style. In a critical moment, he delivered the big hit, and his reaction represented exactly how we all felt.
• I was lucky enough to be in Boston in 2010 when Jose hit his 48th and 49th home runs of the season.
• In 2009, I attended Jays games in Seattle during Jose’s first full season with Toronto. Sitting near third base, I watched as the Mariners put a runner on second and a single was hit to left field—where Jose played more often that year. Expecting a run to score, I was amazed when Jose fired a laser to home plate, nabbing Kenji Johjima. Until that moment, I hadn’t realized just how strong his arm was. Roy Halladay started that game, and with the trade deadline looming, we thought it might be his last as a Blue Jay. Ultimately, he wasn’t dealt until after the season.
• Watching him work with Chris Colabello on his defense in the outfield.
• Jose quietly declined to do interviews with Sportsnet after they featured Devon Travis in a segment where he was taken suit shopping and then expected to pay for the suit. Jose felt it was unfair to use a rookie making the league minimum for promotional purposes, especially when the purchase wasn’t voluntary.
• What stands out most is his intensity.

Jose on the Blue Jays career leaderboards:

Career bWAR position players: 1st (38.4).

Offensive bWAR: 2nd (37.0).

On-base percentage: 4th (.372) minimum 1500 PA (tied with Otto Velez).

Slugging average: 5th (.506 behind Carlos Delgado (.556)).

OPS: 4th (.875, tied with Edwin Encarnacion).

Games Played: 5th (1235).

Home runs: 2nd (288, 48 short of Delgado).

RBI: 3rd (766).

Walks: 2nd (803, 24 behind Delgado).

Heading into the season, Daylen Lile was one of the players I was most excited to see. He was coming off a stellar rookie season that was capped off by winning NL Player of the Month in September. However, he has been unable to recapture that magic for most of this season and last night’s Golden Sombrero felt like rock bottom.

Two of the things that made Lile so dominant last season was his confidence and his swing decisions. When he was at the dish towards the end of last season, Lile looked like he was in a flow state. Last night though, Lile was caught in between. He was really trying to be more selective, but in the end, he was taking strikes and swinging at balls. 

Last season, Lile’s swing decisions were his super power, but now they are his achilles heel. In 2025, Lile chased just 26.7% of the time while swinging at pitches in the zone at a 75.4% clip. Chasing less than the average hitter while being ultra-aggressive in the zone is a rare skill.

However, it is not a skill that has translated this season. Lile’s zone swing rate of 75.9% remains relatively unchanged. His chase rate has ballooned to 39% though. The swing decisions are pretty much the root of all Lile’s offensive issues this season. His exit velocities and launch angles remain nearly identical. It is the swing decisions that have doomed Lile’s sophomore season.

It is really jarring to see the drop in numbers. Last season, Lile hit .299 with an .845 OPS. This year, those numbers are down to .241 and .691. Seeing a player with the pure hitting ability of Lile batting just .241 is shocking to see. Even if Lile was to regress this season, I thought it would be due to a dip in power rather than him just not hitting for average.

A player as gifted as Lile should not have an 88 wRC+. This is a negative season for Lile, don’t get me wrong, but I still think the talent is there. Even this year, he has had his moments, particularly against the Reds. He has 15 homers on the year, which is impressive. His defense has also taken major steps.

Honestly, the work he put in defensively may have come at the cost of his bat. Just about every clip I saw from Lile this offseason was him working on his defense. That made a lot of sense given his -10 Fielding Run Value. The work he put in has paid off as well. This season Lile is at +3 FRV. However, it seems like that work may have come at the expense of his bat.

Unlike Dylan Crews, I do think Lile has shown enough both last season and even this year to have a starting job in 2027. Next season is a huge year in Lile’s development though. The 23 year old will have to show that 2025 was no fluke and that he can be a productive regular.

I think Lile has it in him and that this season will help him in the long run. Blake Butera has spoken multiple times about how Lile is very hard on himself. I believe that this year will help Lile be better able to deal with failure and it will teach him some real lessons.

Simply put, Daylen Lile has been punched in the mouth by the baseball gods this year. He can either get off the mat or stay down. Based on what I know about Lile, I think he will get off the mat. It might not be this season, but he will get up eventually. The talent and work ethic is just too strong for me to give up on. However, this has been a true sophomore slump and hopefully Lile comes out the other side better than ever.

Syracuse Mets 5, Worcester Red Sox 0 (BOX)

Not a whole lot going on offensively for the Woo Sox on Thursday, facing a bullpen game from Syracuse (NYM). Brett Harris had two of the team’s four hits, and Franklin Arias was 1-for-3 with a walk and an error. Isiah Kiner-Falefa continued his rehab, going 0-for-3 at shortstop.

Gage Ziehl started, and allowed three earned runs in four innings. Noah Song was dominant in relief, striking out seven batters and allowing a run in three innings.

On Friday, Blake Wehunt (1-1, 4.05) gets the start for the Woo Sox at 6:35.

Reading Fightin Phils 11, Portland Sea Dogs 1 (BOX)

The final score does not reflect how this game unfolded, as it entered the eighth inning with a score of 3 to 1 before Reading (PHI) broke it wide open.

Hayden Mullins started and allowed just one earned run in five innings, and struck out eight batters. In the fifth inning, trailing 2-0, center fielder Will Turner hit his 14th home run of the season, one of his two hits on the day. A rehabbing Roman Anthony went 0-for-3 with a strikeout.

Relievers Caleb Bolden, Jeremy Wu-Yelland, and Griffin Kilander combined to allow nine runs in the late innings, turning it into a laugher.

On Friday, Devin Futrell (1-0, 5.40) takes the bump for Portland at 6:00.

Greenville Drive 8, Winston-Salem Dash 7 (BOX)

Finally, some offense to speak of across the Sox minor league affiliates on Thursday. The top of the order for the Drive powered things, with Luke Heyman (3-for-4), Isaiah Jackson, and Maximus Martin all providing multi-hit efforts. Heyman and Martin each hit solo home runs in the seventh inning as well, quickly erasing a 6-4 lead for the Dash (CWS). What’s cooler than hitting a ball onto someone’s balcony in straightaway center field?

Trailing again in the eighth, 7-6, Stanley Tucker tied the game with a double before Jackson scored him with a game-winning sacrifice fly. Trennor O’Donnell recorded his first win, allowing a run in three innings and finishing the game.

The Drive will send Dylan Brown (3-7, 4.06) to the hill on Friday at 6:45.

Wilson Warbirds 11, Salem RidgeYaks 10 (BOX)

What on earth was going on in the seventh inning last night?

The Warbirds (MIL) opened up a 10-1 lead in the top of the seventh by scoring six runs, before the RidgeYaks finally woke up. Featuring RBI doubles from D’Angelo Ortiz and Colton Coates, a two-run homer by Louis Andujar, among other things, the RidgeYaks cut the lead to one but could not complete the comeback.

Catcher Franklin Primera went 2-for-4 with an RBI, to improve his slash line to .339/.481/.537. The 19-year-old has a 171 wRC+ over 34 games at the level and recently skyrocketed to the number three prospect at Sox Prospects.

On Friday, Leighton Finley (6-4, 4.75) will take the ball at 6:35.

Kansas City officially approved a $600 million funding commitment for a downtown Royals stadium by an 11-to-2 vote, and Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco break down everything that led to it. Jeremy’s interview with Councilman Duncan, who voted no, adds real texture to the conversation, particularly his concerns about the lack of a completed financial analysis before the vote went through.

The deal structure gets a thorough examination, including the Royals’ private contribution, possible state funding, and whether the city actually used its negotiating leverage effectively. Jacob and Jeremy are not shy about their criticism, both of the rushed timeline and of the stadium renderings themselves, which they find generic and underwhelming given the scale of the project. For fans still opposed to the deal, the hosts lay out what options remain, including contacting city leaders directly.

On the field, the Royals are playing some of their best baseball of the season. A four-game sweep of the Athletics extended their winning streak to five games, and the team has been piling up comeback wins since the All-Star break. Vinnie Pasquantino’s return has been a major factor, with extra-base hits and better at-bats signaling that his power is fully back after hamate surgery. Bobby Witt Jr. is putting together a huge August that has a legitimate MVP case building, and Salvador Perez continues to climb the franchise RBI leaderboard.

The injury report remains crowded. Maikel Garcia is likely headed back to the IL, Jac Caglianone is dealing with ankle soreness even amid a huge August of his own, and Beck Way has begun a rehab assignment. Noah Cameron’s growing role gets spotlighted as the Royals look toward 2027, while Lucas Erceg’s demotion and Carlos Duran’s debut signal that the organization remains firmly in evaluation mode.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

After seven innings of one-run ball against the Marlins on Wednesday night, Aaron Nola’s month of August has been a return to normal for the veteran right-hander. Across four starts and 23 innings of work, Nola has a 2.74 ERA with 30 strikeouts to just seven walks. Really good results from anyone but especially a pitcher that seemed like an automatic loss roughly six weeks ago.

It is not all perfect, some of the results are a bit smoke and mirrors. He has a 100% strand rate this month, which isn’t sustainable and hitters are pulling the ball a lot more, which could be scary. Nola has not exactly returned to his prime years, but it’s the kind of hot stretch of pitching that seemed hard to imagine given the last two seasons.

Even if we make the safe assumption that Nola will not maintain a sub-three ERA moving forward, there are still plenty of positive takeaways to have moving forward.

Lefties

Nola’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been well documented all year. He came into August allowing a .528 slug to lefties because he allowed 16 home runs against them and plenty of more damage. Another troubling issue was his walk rate spiking to 11.2%. It was a combination of getting crushed whenever he attacked them in the zone but doing his best not to go after them consistently. Probably the worst combination of the two.

In August, lefties are hitting just .207 with a .310 slugging against him. The walk rate has dropped down to 6.5% but the biggest improvement has to be in his strikeout rate, up to 32.3% along with better quality of contact.

Whats the reason? Some of it is probably to do with the opponents he’s faced. His four starts have come against the Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, and Miami Marlins.

The Nationals threw several left-handed and switch hitters against him, including James Wood and CJ Abrams. There is no handwaving there but that also happened to be his worst start during this stretch, even if it was still solid. The Blue Jays and Twins rank in the bottom six in wRC+ for left-handed hitters, so they were good matchups on paper for Nola.

As for the Marlins, Liam Hicks was traded to the Rays at the deadline and Kyle Stowers is on the injured list. Strength of schedule is certainly a big factor but it does not tell the full story.

The biggest difference has to be in Nola’s slight velocity jump, going from 92.2 mph over the first four months to 92.7 in August. It is still allowing a .571 slugging on his four-seam to lefties but it is far better than before, a .750 slug from southpaws over the prior four months.

Being able to trust it in the zone just a bit more has allowed him to throw more strikes and walk fewer hitters. His curveball is also playing better against them because of it, with a 41% whiff rate against southpaws this month.

Righties

There have been some experiments all year with how Nola is attacking right handed hitters. He began the year leaning on a three-fastball approach with fewer curveballs. It didn’t work. He then nearly abandoned the cutter entirely in May. It still wasn’t working.

He then went into a full platoon pitching plan, leaning heavily on the sinker and curveball. That didn’t work either.

Since the start of July, Nola started to reintroduce the changeup to right-handed hitters to help protect the fastball but August feels like the month where the mix has fully come together. He is spamming the curveball 38.4% of the time, leaning just enough into the sinker and cutter, keeping the changeup usage around 12-13%, and throwing enough fastballs to keep hitters honest but not enough to get crushed.

It’s probably the best balance of all the different ideas Nola has tried this year. He tried a slider phase but it’s gone and he doesn’t really need it when he already can throw five different pitches to them.

What to think:

Well, no one should tell you what to think but if you want an opinion… (I’m done with dad jokes now).

It is unreasonable to expect Nola to keep up this exact pace but there is no reason to think Nola is cooked. It took a lot of different things and conclusions, and sometimes just throwing harder but he has found the proper adjustments that should keep him viable.

Projecting beyond 2026 is hard to do. He just turned 33 years old and the difference between the 6+ ERA pitcher he was to begin this season and what he is now is slightly different but not enough to forget the recent past. If he comes into next season throwing 91 and cannot reach for any more at that point, everything that was said here probably doesn’t matter.

But, at least for the rest of this season, Aaron Nola is good enough to be the number four starter in a postseason game and face roughly 18 hitters. He was not that guy a month ago.

Remember when Martín Pérez delivered what was arguably his best start of the season nearly a month ago? Pérez started on 90 minutes notice because before that game was set to begin, the scheduled starter’s knee was acting up on him and it was bad enough to result in an IL stint for the poor guy.

That poor guy was Reynaldo López, who has been on the IL since July 30 due to a knee injury. Fortunately, there was no structural damage revealed via an MRI shortly after he went down with the injury and now López appears to be close to recovering and eventually returning to the mound for the Braves. Before he does that, he’ll be joining the Gwinnett Stripers in Triple-A for a rehab stint starting on this coming Sunday.

Here’s more from the Stripers via a press release:

The Gwinnett Stripers, in conjunction with the Atlanta Braves, have announced that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez will join the Stripers to begin a rehab assignment on Sunday, August 23. That day is the finale of a six-game series vs. the Durham Bulls at Gwinnett Field.

Lopez has been on Atlanta’s 15-day Injured List since July 30 with left knee inflammation. In 24 games (11 starts) with the Braves this season, the 32-year-old is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .245 BAA.

Across an 11-year Major League career with the Washington Nationals (2016), Chicago White Sox (2017-23), Los Angeles Angels (2023), Cleveland Guardians (2023), and Atlanta Braves (2024-26), Lopez is 51-57 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .243 BAA, and six saves in 292 games (134 starts). He was selected to the National League All-Star Team with the Braves in 2024, a season in which he went 8-5 with a 1.99 ERA in 26 games (25 starts).

This rehab assignment marks Lopez’s second career stint with Gwinnett. He made one rehab start with the Stripers on August 13, 2024 vs. Norfolk (ND, 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HB, 1 BB, 4 SO) while working his way back from right forearm inflammation.

This has definitely been an up-and-down season for Reynaldo López so far, between the IL stints, the stints in the bullpen and the run he had in the rotation. Somehow, he’s stayed productive when he’s had an opportunity to contribute — he’s got an ERA of 3.64 as mentioned in the press release (with an ERA- of 87) and a FIP of 4.32 (105 FIP-). That’s not exactly spectacular and it’s nowhere near the relatively dizzying heights that he reached during his career year in 2024 but it’s perfectly fine and the Braves will be better upon his return.

Here’s hoping that the rehab stint goes well and that Lopez will be able to re-enter Atlanta’s pitching staff and continue to contribute down the home stretch of this regular season.