Worldwide Sports News

Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

Long Time, First Time asks: As his first extended stint in the show comes to a close, what are your impressions of Spencer Jones?

That there’s a lot of work left to be done before he’s a regular in the starting lineup. The obvious worry with Jones was that he carries a high strikeout rate with him from the minors and that was certainly exacerbated in the majors, striking out a whopping 41.5 percent of the time, but despite that he managed to find some moments to contribute. A .687 OPS isn’t going to wow anybody but it was far from the worst production the Yankees were getting during his stay with the team, and his playing time was rather inconsistent as the team did not give him starts against lefties which took him out of nearly the entire Boston series among other stretches. His defense in the outfield was mostly fine, definitely better than his counterpart in Domínguez and significantly better than running José Caballero out there, but between the two options the team sees a better chance for improvement down the line with Jones getting regular reps in Triple-A and will ride with Domínguez in right field for now. Jones didn’t do enough in his time up for me to argue passionately against that assessment, but we’ll see whether Jones can muster up a couple hot weeks mashing at Scranton to push the issue.

Cisforcookie asks:Let’s say that the Snakes are six games out of the WC at the break (3.5 or so right now and a bunch of teams right ahead of them). What would it take to get them to part with Moreno and his 2.3 years left? Given that Judge is not getting any younger, whatever the ask (apart from Cam) shouldn’t NY pay it?

I don’t know if I’m on board with going all-in for Gabriel Moreno, at least not yet. The team should certainly make a swing for an upgrade at catcher, as despite his homer yesterday I have little faith in Austin Wells’ bat the rest of this season and the options below him are even less appealing. But the future of the position doesn’t have to get solved here and now so much as the position needs to be covered going into the stretch run and the postseason. So if it’s more feasible for the Yankees to trade for the short-term rental in Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers and swing other deals to improve the roster overall rather than put their eggs in the Moreno basket, I would prefer to do that. Jeffers in just 37 games this season has produced 1.7 fWAR on the back of a tremendous 165 wRC+, and while he doesn’t have a season that’s reached the peak of his offensive prowess like this one he has enough of a history that I can believe he’ll hold up. Moreno has garnered 2.1 fWAR in 66 games and has been consistently an above-average hitter while also playing his best ball this year with a 124 wRC+.

If the market develops and there’s no other significant move the Yankees can make alongside getting a catcher, then I think Moreno makes sense. He would be costly to acquire, and I won’t speculate on a specific package as there’s no current news about Arizona even considering moving him even if they fall out of the race in the NL Wild Card, but if he’s the big piece they can get then you go for it. I’ve argued in the past that Brian Cashman’s playing for longevity has cost him opportunities to strike for more ideal acquisitions, and now that the core is pushing towards the latter stages of their careers with no ring in hand yet the pressure is on to do something a bit more desperate. We’ll have to see if he’s really feeling that pressure, or if Hal Steinbrenner is content with more of the status quo.

Hankflorida asks:Since Boone has to dance with who he brought, he is limited to what he can do, and Cashman may not have the cards to greatly improve this team; my question is what do you think that Boone can do with shaking up this lineup while he waits for Judge to come back and what are his choices with his starting and relief pitchers? Is Boone just limited to whatever will be will be and has to just continue to follow his analytics and wait and see with hope that things turn around?

There are moments you could argue that Aaron Boone has let things play out with a lack of urgency, or that his team’s general lazy defensive over the years (this one included) is a reflection on him and his staff, but by and large I don’t have a ton of criticism to levy on Boone right now. The injuries that piled onto the lineup were significant, and without their biggest boppers in the mix the rest of the team suffered as a result. As Bradford Willaim Davis put it the other day, at a certain point the Yankees simply have to play better. A full third of the offense can’t be playing like they’re overwhelmed minor leaguers on a regular basis and expect to compete, and thankfully they broke out of their reverie for a bit with this recent Rays series dropping five runs in the opener for just the second time in nearly three weeks and then ending it on a 12-run blowout. Will that carry on? They have one more series before the All-Star break to prove it and then get some much-needed rest, but with Trent Grisham back in the fold and Ben Rice heating back up the floor at least raises to a more competent team than we’ve seen during their week-long losing streak.

We may never find out what Casey Schmitt thinks about his aversion to walks. Is it a philosophical thing? Instinct? Last night, he finally drew a walk for the first time since May 24th. In his post-game interview with NBC Sports Bay Area, there was an opportunity for a question about his approach to hitting that could’ve addressed the walk situation in a positive way, but instead, the broadcast went in a different direction:

KYLEN HILLS: Casey, gotta ask about a unique stat that you probably haven’t heard yet, but, you’ve hit seven first inning home runs, which is the most of any Giant in the last 50 years through this point in the season not named Barry Bonds. What is it about the first inning? Can you give us any insight?

CASEY SCHMITT: You know, honestly, I thought this was gonna go a different way. I thought you were gonna say the at bats until I got a walk again [laughs]

KYLEN HILLS: [laughs] Come on. We wouldn’t do that to you. We’ve got your back.

CASEY SCHMITT: Yeah, I didn’t know that. That’s pretty cool. That’s a cool thing to know. But, uh, yeah, I mean, I’m just trying to get on base. I’m not trying to swing for the fences or anything. I’m trying to stay within myself every single at bat.

A wonderful moment that tells us everything and nothing at the same time. What does Casey Schmitt think about drawing a walk? Or, at the very least, why does he try to avoid them? I have some theories:

His favorite TV show is Hacks

Sure, the title could be a reference to hacking at pitches, but the spirit of the show is being your unapologetic self no matter what the world throws your way. A comedy about two women from different generations trying to understand each other just enough to get what they want. Maybe Schmitt really likes Jean Smart or her chemistry with co-lead Hannah Einbinder. But the message of getting what you want by going after it, well, yeah, that would certainly diminish the value of a walk in the eyes of a hitter.

Threats

At the beginning of Spring Training, Buster Posey brought into the clubhouse those items or people most important to the players. Casey was all, “Wait, what’s my dad doing here?” before Buster calmly explained that he was only going to allot a certain number of walks this season and that players who go over their allotments would be forced to watch something terrible happen to someone they love.

Instinct

When Casey Schmitt sees a baseball coming right at him, his internal monologue sounds like comedian Tim Robinson’s screaming voice and all he can think is “F**K, F**K, F**K — A BASEBALL’S COMING AT ME!“ And later he explains, ”It was coming right at me — like, RIGHT at me — 110, 120 miles per hour. It could’ve taken my head clean off.“

Hunter Mense

Okay, seriously, it’s got to be the approach the team imported from Canada’s Toronto Blue Jays in the form of the World Series team’s assistant hitting coach. Mense has brought a swing-first approach to the roster, it seems and it’s clear that it’s working. Since May 1st, the Giants are fourth in wRC+ (110) and fifth in batting average (.259). What’s interesting to note about him is that he’s a huge advocate of swing decisions, an obsession over which got the last President of Baseball Operations fired from the Giants. So, has he instilled something in Schmitt or given him a permission structure for giving into his baser swing instincts?

I guess we’ll never know! The team-owned media has his back! Walks are taboo? We can’t talk about them? Yeah, I guess that home run stat is pretty cool because being mentioned in the same breath as Barry Bonds is extraordinarily notable…

But, bro. Bros…

As Steven mentioned in his recap, “Schmitt worked a walk for the first time since May 24th — the longest span by a Giants player since Hal Lanier in 1964.” And, if you tweak that search to be any Giant of the Oracle Park era, you find that in the Oracle Park era, Schmitt’s 169 PA walk-less streak is second only to pinch hitter extraordinaire Shawon Dunston’s 246 PA streak (105 games!) that stretched from May 2001 to July 2002.

So, on the one hand, Schmitt can hang with a Barry Bonds stat. On the other hand, he’s in the same group as career .529 OPS Hal Lanier and career .712 OPS Shawon Dunston. And these players of recent vintage:

But then you see Jung Hoo Lee on this list with Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and even Marquis Grissom, and suddenly the lack of walks doesn’t feel quite so dire. Even Donovan Solano. I would not deprive a Giants fan of their Donnie Barrels love.

The career walk rates of everybody I just mentioned: 6.4%, 7.1%, 7.4%, 6.2%, 6.2%, and all of them with sub-20% strikeout rates (some greatly under that). Schmitt’s career rate of 4.7% and 22.1% strikeout rate check in as higher than this group, but this season, he’s at 2.2 BB% and 19.3 K%.

The reason why it’s worth pointing out is that this simply isn’t sustainable. The reason why walks matter is because it increases the rate by which a batter does not make an out. The lower the “out” rate, the higher the rate of runs scored. Yes, hits are more valuable, but treating on base as zero sum is foolish. The value of not making an out is greater than making an out, after all.

Schmitt has drawn 8 walks in 357 plate appearances. Let’s just say he gets to 600 plate appearances and ups the walk rate a bit to 2.5%; so, 15 walks to end the season. According to Baseball Reference, that’s only happened 27 times in the history of Major League Baseball (unless I’m entering the filtering options wrong).

The most interesting part is that the most recent 10 range from 1966-2017, but between the most recent 10 and the remaining 17, there’s a 31-year gap. Anyway, if Schmitt is able to pull this off, he’ll join these players:

It’s an interesting group. Alcides Escobar was 30 and would play just 3 more seasons. Tim Anderson was at the beginning of his career, and would have a great run after his 606 PA & 13-walk season from 2018-2022 without drawing many walks (.297/.329/.455 — 4.0 BB%, 21.5 K%), but he’d play just 3 more seasons after this run (.232/.269/.270 in 855 PA). Ben Revere played just 3 more seasons, too. Deivi Cruz played five more, but this was his last good season (.264/.293/.384, 3.5 BB%, 9.7 K%). So, let’s hope that this is more Tim Anderson than any other player worth comparing him to on this list.

It’s really tough to compare eras, too, but except for 2013-2015, the league walk rate since 2000 has been consistently around 8.5%. This season, it’s 9%. If you step back to last century and look at 1966-1990, it’s still around 8.5%, with the exception of a 3-year run when it was about 7.7%. So, historically, Schmitt is an outlier, and not in a way that typically signals long-term success.

But we have other measures, too. He’s making contact as frequently as Mike Trout and Junior Caminero (79.7%), for instance. It helps that he’s swinging more than average (54.6% — 12th-most in MLB), but he’s also swinging out of the strike zone more than average (39.9% — 13th-worst in MLB, 11th percentile), which isn’t great and evidence that he’s still probably guessing or still trying to do something at the plate rather than “stay within himself.” Still, he’s not swinging and missing a lot (11.1% — between James Wood at 11% and Ohtani at 11.2%) and he’s seen the fourth-most rate of pitches (44.4%) in the strike zone compared to any other hitter in the sport.

The batted ball results are undeniable…

So, I’d say he’s confident that he can get to a lot of pitches right now and confident he can do damage — because he is — but maybe over time he’ll start recognizing which pitches are actually worth the swing.

In his minor league and college careers, he walked around 8.5% of the time, which would be the league average if he could bring that sort of discipline to the major leagues. It’s entirely possible this season is motivated by some tricky psychologically: he knew he needed to hit to stick and he’s done exactly that. Once he settles into a position, will that consistency allow him to give himself the power to lay off some pitches?

On the other hand… if it’s working, why not keep doing it? The theory of why I’m engaging in any concern here is simply that plate discipline and swing decisions have been historical drivers of future success and if Schmitt will be sticking around for a while, I think I’d like to have some sense that he might be one of the players who makes the team better in the future. But for now, all of this is working for him, so, I guess I need to sit back and appreciate this breakout season.

The Mets have once again made a bunch of roster moves, as the team has called up Tobias Myers and Zack Short, placed Mark Vientos on the injured list with a right hand fracture, and designated Dan Hammer for assignment.

Myers was just optioned to the minors following his latest appearance with the Mets, but thanks to the injury that Vientos suffered, the Mets can call him back up much sooner than they would’ve been able to without someone hitting the injured list. After starting the season pretty well, Myers has struggled mightily since the Mets started sending him to Syracuse and bringing him back, and he now has a 6.14 ERA and a 4.86 FIP at the major league level this season.

Short, an infielder who had a very brief stint with the Mets in 2024 and and even briefer one earlier this season, gives the team a capable defender at shortstop. He’s hit just .200/.287/.275 in Triple-A this season across time with the affiliates of multiple organizations.

Vientos has been one of the worst regular players in baseball this year, as he’s been worth -1.1 fWAR, the third-worst mark in baseball among players who’ve made at least 100 plate appearances this year. On top of his shoddy defense, he’s hit just .211/.256/.388 with 11 home runs and a 77 wRC+.

Hammer was just the latest in an ever-rotating group of pitchers to get churned by the Mets’ front office. He was called up yesterday, having spent his season up to that point with Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. Should he clear waivers, he figures to return to Syracuse.

The Blue Jays have traded right handed reliever Tommy Nance to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for A+ catcher Ryan Sprock:

Nance has been with the organization for two years, after being acquired from the Padres in the middle of the 2024 season. He filled innings capably down the stretch in that lost season, and was a key part of the bullpen last year when he pitched 31.2 innings with a 1.99 ERA. This season he’s been more solid, posting a 3.82 ERA and striking out 34 against 13 walks in 33.0 innings.

Sprock was an 8th round pick out of Elon University last season. He was a two way player in college, splitting his junior season between third base and the bullpen. Naturally the Twins drafted him as a catcher, a position he hadn’t played in college. He seems to have taken to it, though, with some positive reviews on his early glove work. Fangraphs believes he could get to average there. Offensively, he’s shown a strong eye and excellent contact rate so far as a pro, with 64 walks to 52 strikeouts over 374 PA. He’s only managed 7 home runs in that time, but 21 total extra base hits shows that there’s a little pop there.

In terms of what this means for the Blue Jays, I wouldn’t take it to be all that much. Nance is 35 and missed time with a forearm issue this season. He’s a decent reliever, but not one any team is likely to have long term plans for. He’s also already been DFA’d and brought back onto the roster once this year, and Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman and Braydon Fisher are ahead of him on the right handed relief depth chart, with Spencer Miles possibly entering that mix if/when the rotation gets healthy. Sprock, meanwhile, is extremely the Jays’ kind of guy, a plus contact hitter with a plan at the plate who hit with wood bats in the Northwoods League as an amateur. My interpretation is that they were offered a guy they like for a pitcher who was somewhat on the roster bubble anyway and took it. I don’t see this as any meaningful move towards being sellers at the deadline. With three weeks to go and (with respect to the Rays recent hot streak) a soft schedule for the rest of July, 2.5 games out of a wildcard, I can’t seem them having made a buy/sell decision yet.

On the Twins’ side, Nance is probably instantly the third or fourth best guy in an awful bullpen with a league-worst 5.28 ERA. They have some offence and a Cy Young candidate in Joe Ryan, and they’re two games out of a very bad AL Central. Nance fills a need and could be a small but meaningful part of trying to win a very tight division.

Best of luck to Tommy in that endeavour, and welcome to the organization Ryan.

Update:

MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson confirms that international bonus pool space is going to Minnesota in the deal, although how much does not seem to have been publicly confirmed yet.

Update 2:

Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting it’s $250,000 in bonus pool money. That’s a meaningful amount, which as Ben says shows that the Jays were motivated to acquire Sprock, but doesn’t hugely change the shape of the overall deal.

PHILADELPHIA – Shohei Ohtani, baseball’s biggest star, will not participate in the All-Star Game after being scratched Friday, July 10, from his scheduled start on the mound with an inflamed knee.

Ohtani will still be the Los Angeles Dodgers’ designated hitter against the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend, but will not travel to Philadelphia to participate in the All-Star Game or festivities. He was scheduled to be the National League’s starting DH.

It leaves the game without the defending MVPs and leading vote-getters in New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge and Ohtani. The St. Louis Cardinals' Iván Herrera will replace Ohtani on the NL roster.

Ohtani, the four-time MVP, was scheduled to pitch Friday night against the Diamondbacks but was scratched in the afternoon with an inflamed left knee. The news comes just three days after Ohtani hit his 300th career homer in the fewest games in baseball history.

Shohei Ohtani will not make his scheduled start on the mound this evening against the D-backs due to continued irritation in his left knee. He will serve as the designated hitter the rest of the weekend, but following the series against the D-backs he will have some interventions…

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 10, 2026

It’s a huge blow to the All-Star Game, and a setback for Ohtani’s Cy Young hopes. It’s unknown how long he will be sidelined as a pitcher.

Ohtani, who turned 32 last week, is certainly in the running for his first Cy Young award. He is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA this season with 95 strikeouts in 85.2 innings. And he’s still considered the finest hitter in the National League, hitting .290 with 20 homers, 56 RBI and a .939 OPS.

Ohtani was not expected to pitch in the All-Star Game, with the starting nod expected to go to Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez, but he was scheduled to be the starting DH. That now will fall to Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, who leads baseball with 32 homers.

Ohtani also rejected an invitation to be in the Home Run Derby, but MLB officials are hopeful that Chicago White Sox star Muneteka Murakami, who hit 20 homers before missing the last 35 games on the injured list, will be the final participant in the derby. He was activated on Friday.

Mets first baseman Mark Vientos is set to miss 6-8 weeks with a fracture in his right hand, but will not undergo surgery, per SNY MLB Insider Chelsea Janes.

Vientos was hit by a pitch on his throwing hand in the second inning of Thursday night's 7-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals at Citi Field.

Mark Vientos has been removed from the game after being hit in the hand

He initially remained in before being removed for defense pic.twitter.com/Es46Tu69Ex

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 9, 2026

Talking to reporters prior to Friday night's series opener with the Boston Red Sox, Vientos expressed his disappointment on being sidelined long-term.

"I definitely want to be with the team, definitely want to play with the guys and I love playing baseball at the same time," said the first baseman. "It sucks, for sure."

With Vientos being moved to the IL, the Mets have called up infielder Zack Short. The 31-year-old has appeared in three games for the Mets this season, all at shortstop.

Players on the Mets active roster who could fill the void left at first base include Jared Young, Eric Wagaman, Brett Baty, and Jorge Polanco.

Vientos has hit 11 home runs and tallied 35 RBI in 73 games for the Mets this season, but has also recorded a dismal .644 OPS and 61:12 K:BB in that time.

PHILADELPHIA — St. Louis Cardinals rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt may have been snubbed by not being selected to the All-Star game, but certainly no one is having a greater weekend.

Wetherholt agreed Friday, July 10 to an eight-year, $112.5 million contract extension, a person familiar with the deal told USA TODAY Sports. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity since the Cardinals have yet to announce the contract.

It’s the largest contract extension given to a Cardinals’ player since first baseman Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130 million deal in 2019.

Wetherholt becomes the latest young star to sign an extension this year, joining Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle (8 years, $150 million), Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Konnor Griffin (8 years, $140 million), Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson (8 years, $95 milllion) and Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Cooper Pratt (8 years, $50.75 million). Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong also signed a six-year, $115 million contract extension this season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes looked just 5 games at the minor league level during his rehab stint due to a lower back injury, but in that time he managed to produce with aplomb. At AAA Louisville, in particular, Hayes went 7 for 12 with a homer and 5 runs scored in just a trio of games, and that was apparently enough to warrant a recall to the active roster by the Cincinnati Reds.

Hayes was activated on Friday afternoon with infielder Matt McLain heading the other direction with a calf strain, and the Reds will now begin the process of figuring out if the woeful struggles Hayes had at the outset of the 2026 were at all pinnable on the lingering back issues he has dealt with for years.

Those struggles, you may recall, were pronounced. Across 44 games and 128 PA, Hayes hit just .142/.195/.225 (.420 OPS) with only 2 homers and a lone triple. Even with his vaunted glovework factoring in, that meant he was worth -0.2 bWAR and a brutal -0.9 fWAR so far this season, numbers that are simply unsustainable for the Reds at the big league level regardless of cost.

Friday will begin Hayes’ quest to prove he can still cut it as a big leaguer, something that’s vital for this Reds club to know, too, seeing as they’ve got over $30 million still owed to him over the course of the contract they fully acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates just last July. Hayes is in the starting lineup for Friday’s series opener against the Chicago Cubs, playing 3B and batting in his customary #9 spot in the order.

The Cardinals host the Braves this weekend at Busch Stadium leading up to the All Star Break. If you haven’t heard, Jordan Walker will be in the Home Run Derby on Monday night on Netflix, AND be at the All-Star Game, as the Cardinals lone position player representative. Riley O’Brien was also added to the All-Star roster because certain pitchers were scheduled to play in games this weekend and would not have enough rest time for the exhibition game. Old news, I know, but the All-Star Break is just right around the corner after this series hosting Atlanta.

(Personally, I am going to watch the HR Derby for the first time in years, because I currently have Netflix… and probably ignore the All-Star Game as usual, unless I am bored and can find it on streaming TV somehow).

the 2026 Atlanta Braves

Over the last 10 games, the Braves are 5-5, two of those losses and one of those wins due to the Cardinals. Since the Cardinals went to Atlanta, the Braves split a 4 game series vs the Mets, and won a three game series in Pittsburgh. Before we won that series against them in Atlanta, the Braves had been bailing the water out of their boat, going 9-14 in June. So, I cannot tell if their going 5-5 in the last 10 games is them turning it around or, just treading water. Regardless of recency bias, they are one of the best teams in baseball and first place in the ultra tough NL East division, where 4 out of 5 teams possess winning records.

What must be really frustrating for Braves fans during their hapless June: losing series to teams like the Mets, Giants, and Padres, and being swept in two games by the White Sox, while doing well vs the Brewers. Go figure.

The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and they fare well at home, on the road, and vs over .500 teams. How can a team that has been floundering so much lately be that on top of things? They stacked up 22 wins in March and April, and 18 wins in May.

How is Atlanta so good?

It’s not so much the hitting, it’s the pitching. Their lineup can certainly hit home runs well beyond the midrange, tied for 6th in MLB with 3 other teams. Overall, their lineup is good not great, most similar to the Houston Astros. And similar to the Cardinals, the Braves don’t like to take many walks. They take even less walks than St Louis, and perhaps the biggest weakness to their lineup is on-base percentage. But hey, if you’re hitting the long ball, whatever about walks, amirite.

Braves pitching is what makes their team win a lot. Their best trait is most similar to the Giants, but all the Brewers: they don’t let you barrel the ball. As a team they are really doing well, but there’s a caveat…

Braves pitching has an airtight, lockdown bullpen. So it’s their relievers! Believe it or not, the Braves bullpen is worth nearly as much WAR as their starting rotation. The Braves are either proof that an elite bullpen can elevate your above average team to elite, without having anything more than an above-average lineup and above-average starting pitching by ERA/xERA (below average by FIP stats!).

Braves Defense

The Braves defense is good, especially because of center fielder Michael Harris II, left fielder Mauricio Dubon, rangey first baseman Matt Olson, and part time shorstop Jorge Mateo, if we are going by Fielding Run Value on Baseball Savant. They can certainly prevent some runs on defense, so maybe their starting rotation isn’t as important a factor in their winning ways.

Home runs, prime outfield defense, and a bullpen just as good as the Brewers, only bettered by the Dodgers and Padres by fWAR.

The Cardinals defense throws all their eggs in one basket, with arguably the best middle infield defense in MLB. Overall St Louis ranks higher than the Braves defense, but it’s not by a lot. _{Hopefully this can be a good series.}

Cardinals 4-6 in their last 10 games

The 2026 Cardinals as they stand today are road warriors. At home they are a game under .500. Earlier in the season the team was over .500 vs teams over .500, but now will need to take two of three from the Braves to go back over .500 vs good teams. That’s a lot of .500! Which is also their expected win/loss record, currently.

No matter how you critique Atlanta, the Cardinals are the underdog here. The Cardinals have a slightly better position-player group overall, with that elite middle infield and a slightly better lineup because of the years Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera are having, with the added on-base power of table setters JJ Wetherholt and Lars Nootbaar and the 134 wRC+ bat of Nelson Velazquez.

While the Braves don’t have stellar run producers like Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, they score more runs because of a deeper lineup. So as much as statcast and sabermetric stats like the Cardinals a little bit more, the Braves are winning more games because of scoring more runs… and having much better pitching.

courtesy of baseball savant / mlb statcast info

You might be surprised that the Cardinals rotation is about the same as the Braves in ERA, and actually a fair deal better in total fWAR. That is where the similarities end, the Cardinals bullpen ERA is 4.28 and the Braves is 3.13! And the difference by xERA is even more devastating. If you prefer the lens of fWAR, the Braves bullpen is 3.5 wins better than the Cardinals!

This will strike home but the Braves bullpen probably will not walk you. No free passes. Whereas the Cardinals bullpen corps is practically inviting you onto first base in comparison. When Riley O’Brien is your most stingy walks guy, there is a problem. Ryne Stanek, Ryan Fernandez, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo are the prime offenders, but George Soriano needs some work too. The usually reliable JoJo Romero isn’t having his best year, but his ERA is good at least.

Series Schedule and Matchups

7:15 PM Friday July 10, 2026: Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 58.1% to Cardinals 41.9% chance of winning

-Watch on: AppleTV (sorry guys)

Aging Ace Chris Sale is a lefty, so we should expect to see Nelson Velazquez in left field and batting cleanup. Blaze Jordan will probably play first base. Pedro Pages will likely catch Kyly Leahy.

Keys to the game: our outfield is like the inverse of Atlanta’s, defensively. Not good! Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez are having a race to the bottom in OAA numbers. At least Nathan Church is playing, it would seem! The Cardinals need to rely on pitch-to-contact, ground out style pitching. They must somehow get to and/or catch Chris Sale on a bad day. Because you don’t want to have to win vs Atlanta’s bullpen. Burleson needs a big hit in a big pinch hit opportunity, if the Cardinals pitching can even tame the Braves lineup.

Should we win this? No. But it sure would be nice.

6:15 PM Saturday July 11, 2026: Reynaldo Lopez vs Matthew Liberatore

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 53.6% to Cardinals 46.4%

-Watch on: CardinalsTV

Reynaldo Lopez looks really good by old school stats ERA and W/L record. Everything else looks prime for regression, whether it’s his xERA or FIP stats. He probably just isn’t that good. He will probably issue some walks. But on the flipside, he is still better than the Cardinals worst starting pitcher in 2026, Matthew Liberatore.

Liberatore is worse than Lopez across the board except he actually issues less walks. It could be argued that Reynaldo is having a lucky season while Matthew is having a .325 BABIP against disaster. Whatever the case, Liberatore is having a bad season and is getting hit harder. Lopez also has less miles on the tires, at only 50 some innings pitched. This game is winnable, but we are going to have to see a decent Liberatore outing.

Lopez is a right-handed pitcher, so look to see Burly man first base, with Herrera catching Liberatore and Nootbaar in left field. I am using roster resource projected lineups for the purposes of this preview.

Keys to the game: Let’s make Reynaldo Lopez regress quickly, shall we? Score as many runs as possible early on.

Should we win this: I’m going to call it a draw, flip a coin, whatever.

1:15 PM Sunday July 12, 2026: Hurston Waldrep vs Dustin May

Fangraphs odds: Braves favored 45.3% to Cardinals 54.7%

-Watch on: CardinalsTV

Hurston Waldrep sounds like a name in a sci-fi or fantasy novel, or maybe a steampunk character, but he doesn’t seem to be a very good pitcher. This would be like if it was Liberatore vs Sale, because our guy Dustin May is pitching vs their worst pitcher. Who knows what could happen since he doesn’t seem to be a regular starting pitcher and we are dealing with small sample size, somewhat… but this guy has a major, major walk issue.

Dustin May may have a babip against problem in 2026 (he usually doesn’t), but his underlying numbers and non-ERA rate stats look real good. He is on pace for a 4 fWAR season powered by a 3.21 FIP. His xERA is 3.78, making him the Cardinals ace by that measure. It is looking like the standard Burleson lineup Sunday as Waldrep is a righty. Look for Herrera to catch again Sunday, maybe.

Keys to the game: see if Waldrep will walk you first and foremost, and if not, do some damage. May will need to have a decent game, if the Cardinals lineup is mystified by the newbie starting pitcher. Or maybe it’s a bullpen game for them that day, great.

Should we win this: why the heck not! Winning the last game before the All Star Break seems key, somehow. Maybe this is the game where we prove we can outhit the Braves.

See you Wednesday on the other side of the All Star Game! Go Cardinals.

And of course, tomorrow afternoon starting at noon is the MLB Draft! Full coverage here on VEB for each pick! don’t miss it… google tells me that it is on both NBC and MLB Network, or on streaming through Peacock, Fubo, and MLB.com.

Cardinals baseball will resume next Friday night in Arizona, after this Braves series

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The Toronto Blue Jays open a weekend series looking to keep their bats warm against the San Diego Padres and left-hander JP Sears.

Ernie Clement has become a near-automatic source of offense and headlines a card built around Toronto's edge against southpaws, with Shane Bieber taking the ball for the Blue Jays.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 10.

Blue Jays vs Padres predictions

Blue Jays vs Padres best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

We're starting to talk about Ernie Clement as a hit-per-day guy. He's gone under this prop in three of his last four games, but he has recorded a hit in four straight and carries strong career numbers against Padres starter JP Sears.

The Toronto Blue Jays infielder is 3-for-8 lifetime against Sears without striking out. Clement is a contact machine who has cemented his place atop Toronto's order, and I'm backing him to spark the offense as the Jays carry their San Francisco momentum into San Diego.

I'd play this bet down to even money.

COVERS INTEL: Clement is batting .287 with a team-leading 27 hits against left-handed pitchers this year, with nine going for extra bases. That's exactly the matchup he draws against Sears.

Blue Jays vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Neither Shane Bieber nor JP Sears has been sharp lately, so I'm riding Over 8 total runs in what should be a hittable pitching matchup.

I'll pair that with the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at plus money. The Jays are 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters this year, while the market appears overly concerned by Bieber's tiny sample.

Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases rounds out the parlay, as Toronto's top power bat draws a favorable matchup against a homer-prone southpaw.

Blue Jays vs Padres SGP (+475)

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
• Over 8
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases

Blue Jays vs Padres home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+240)

I won't go so far as to say you should always bet Kazuma Okamoto's home run prop, but the Blue Jays rookie has been a power beast lately. He's homered in two of his last three games, including a grand slam in Wednesday's finale against the Giants, and leads Toronto with a .474 slugging percentage against left-handers.

That makes Okamoto a strong bet to go yard against Sears, who carries an inflated 6.05 FIP and has allowed 2.3 home runs per nine innings. I like the prop at +240, but I wouldn't play it below +230 and would keep the wager to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +105 | San Diego -125
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+160) | San Diego +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -120 | Under +100)

Blue Jays vs Padres trend

The Toronto Blue Jays are 7-2 on the road against left-handed starters this season, a strong backdrop with JP Sears on the mound. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Padres and game info

Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Padres weather

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