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The Los Angeles Dodgers are a massive home favorite over the Washington Nationals ahead of the 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Sept. 4.

My top Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks call for Los Angeles to win the series opener convincingly tonight. 

Who will win Nationals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 run line (53.7%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Dodgers land in a favorable home spot tonight, with the Washington Nationals sending rookie Jackson Kent to the hill.

Kent has spun a5.35 xERA and 4.83 xFIP across his four starts while walking 15 batters over just 19 1/3 innings. Issuing too many free passes is a major concern considering Los Angeles ranks sixth in wOBA against lefties for the season and sixth in xwOBA across the past 30 days.

The Dodgers are countering with veteran Blake Snell, and after a so-so season debut, he’s allowed just three runs across his past four starts with a sterling 1.82 xERA and dominant 34.1 strikeout percentage.

Expect Los Angeles to cruise to victory tonight. 

COVERS INTEL: The Los Angeles Dodgers pace the majors in xwOBA and rank third in xwOBA on contact.

Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53.5%)

With Snell’s highlighted run on the mound, I’m not anticipating the Nationals mounting enough offense to help send this total Over the number. After all, Washington has dipped to 18th in wOBA on the road in the second half.

The Nationals have played to their team total Under in 13 of their past 17 road games, and to the game total Under in 12 of their past 18 away games. Similarly, Los Angeles has played to the team total Under in 15 of its past 24.

Nationals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez (16.8%)

With just a single home run across his past 26 games, Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is eyeing statistical correction at the dish and has the handedness advantage against Kent this evening.

Hernandez’s .184 ISO against lefties this season is also well below the high-end .255 mark he posted across the past three years. Meanwhile, Kent has surrendered a healthy .215 ISO to right-handed hitters.

Nationals vs Dodgers weather

Clear skies and comfortable temperatures at Dodger Stadium tonight will offer excellent playing conditions, potentially giving a slight boost to ball carry for hitters.

Nationals vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Nationals 31.7% | Dodgers 73%
• Run line: Nationals +1.5 (48.8%) | Dodgers -1.5 (53.7%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (53.5%)

Nationals vs Dodgers trend

Los Angeles has hit the Under in eight of its last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info

Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries

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The Guardians announced today that they are designating Carlos Hernandez for assignment and bringing Austin Peterson up to the major league office.

Peterson is a 6 foot 6 right-hander, 26 years old and a 9th round pick in the 2022 draft. This year, in a tough environment for pitchers, he has put up a 4.27 FIP and a 9.6/3.2 K/BB% in Columbus. He has a six-pitch mix with a four-seamer, a cutter, a sinker, a slider, a curveball and a change-up. He has been throwing his slider the most at Triple-A at 27%, a four-seamer and sinker coming in for basically a second-place tie in frequency of use ratings.

I would like to see if Peterson can lower his 14% home run to fly ball rate outside of Columbus. If so, he can certainly be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. I hope he will be a piggy-back option with Logan Allen here in an hour so for game one of the doubleheader. While Peterson’s splits have been mostly even in the past, ij Triple-A, left-handed hitters have an OPS about 100 points higher than right-handed hitters do. So, it may be a good idea to bring Peterson in early today to face hopefully a good amount of right-handed hitters in the lineup to face lefty Logan Allen.

Welcome to Cleveland, Austin!

Two teams. One direction.

When the season began, there were some high expectations for the New York Mets, which had been remade in the offseason by their allegedly awesome President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns. For one brief moment in time, it seemed as though things were going to work out okay. After taking 3 of 4 in San Francisco back in April, the Mets were 6-4. But then, Juan Soto hit the IL and along with some other bad play, the Mets went just 41-60 through July. It has been a disastrous season.

In addition to the attendance loss, the Mets also have a different manager from the one who was leading the team in San Francisco back in May. Former Diamondback and one-time Met utility infielder Andy Green is now the manager.

When the season began, there were modest expectations for the San Francisco Giants, which was left largely untouched — basically, some flaps for wind resistance and some racing stripes — by their allegedly winning President of Baseball Operations, Buster Posey. There was never a brief moment in time when it seemed like things were going to turn around. The Giants haven’t won more than three games in a row all season.

Of course, Giants attendance is up and Tony Vitello is, unfortunately, staying put. Maybe that’s just credit to San Franciscans being generally more positive, less judgmental, and having lower expectations than New Yorkers.

Neither team came close to what was expected of them and both have played so badly that their futures are uncertain. For the true fans, both are just an offseason away from turning around their fortunes. But Mets fans have been saying that for decades now. Giants fans for a decade.

The Mets went 15-12 in August, though, so… maybe they’re setting themselves up to be better in 2027 (whenever that season actually begins)? For Giants fans, it’s about seeing which of the current players on the roster are able to play well enough to make themselves undeniable for the next roster and hoping that the farm system — which has famously been unable to produce quality talent for the MLB roster — can provide the next crop of mainstays.

The Mets are still in a better position than the Giants even in that respect, though, as the long summer of losing has still helped them figure out which of their young players are undeniable. 23-year old outfielder Carson Benge had a triple slash of .248/.312/.374 (.686) through his first 60 games of this season (234 PA), but has hit .300/.356/.454 (.810) since (320 PA / 74 G). He leads them team in wins above replacement (3.2 fWAR)!

24-year old catcher Francisco Alvarez has proven himself with another solid season. Brett Baty has affirmed himself as a utility player (78 wRC+, +0.3 fWAR) while Mark Vientos has probably played his way out of being in the team’s long-term plans (79 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR). Their youngish rotation fronted by 24-year olds righty Nolan McLean (3.0 fWAR in 27 starts) and lefty Zachary Thornton (0.9 fWAR in 11 starts) is off to a great start. The Mets have been middle of the pack all season in terms of their pitching (13.3 fWAR — 15th in MLB), but McClean, Thornton, and 27-year old Christian Scott (1.7 fWAR in 20 starts) have set them up to be even better in the future. They also have a solid bullpen (4.5 fWAR — 10th in MLB), helped in part by the recent move of Kodai Senga to the ‘pen (1.74 ERA in 10.1 IP since August 4th).

That group along with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette seems like a pretty strong foundation for a successful baseball team. The Giants are hoping to find a similar crop of young players to go with Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames.

There’s, of course, Bryce Eldridge, who is playing so well that it’s clear he should’ve been on the Opening Day roster. Drew Gilbert has played himself into a backup outfielder role. Jonah Cox is making the case that he should be the starting centerfielder. Turner Hill is having a nice moment, and the Giants seem to be pretty set at catcher given their soup of Daniel Susac, Drew Cavanaugh, etc. Meanwhile, Grant McCray and Osleivis Basabe seem like they’ve played their way out of long-term consideration.

This weekend’s pitching matchups will feature what the Mets have figured out versus what the Giants are still hoping to make work. If you sent “Matt Wilkinson and Anthony Molina will be starting for the Giants in games 1 & 2” back to Opening Night, you’d have imagined the Giants’ season going as poorly as it has. At the same time, with so many players on the 60-day IL and a preposterous number of DFAs expected this offseason, every pitcher has the chance to make his case with every successful inning. Tugboat’s not going anywhere with his three options and Anthony Molina is probably in a good position as well (he has 2 options remaining) — but, figuring out who’s a reliever and who’s a starter might be something this final month of the season helps determine.

But make no mistake, this is a battle of two laundry piles and both teams are trying to figure out how to sort the stained clothes, find which clothes are clean, which need to be donated, and which need to be repurposed as cleaning rags or thrown away (although, you’re not supposed to throw out clothes, I think).

The Mets are slightly better off when compared to the Giants, but if history’s any guide, that usually doesn’t mean much. This weekend might not feature much in the way of enjoyable baseball, but we might reasonably expect some silliness.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (58-83) at New York Mets (63-77)
Where: Citi Field | Flushing, New York
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Friday: Matt Wilkinson (LHP 0-2, 4.63 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP 10-8, 3.06 ERA)
Saturday: Anthony Molina (RHP 2-0, 3.77 ERA) vs. Zac Thornton (LHP 3-4, 2.93 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Christian Scott (RHP 4-4, 3.80 ERA)

Prediction time

The Giants will not be swept.

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Friday! The weekend has finally arrived. While some will be gearing up for Week 1 of college football, some of us will still be sweating out longballs.

Without further ado, here are my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight’s MLB slate, highlighted by Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone & Jordan Walker.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carter Jensen	18%
Jac Caglianone	19%
Jordan Walker	21%
💲Today's HR parlay	104.89x

Home run prediction: Carter Jensen (20%)

The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is the worst-rated pitcher in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset this evening. In that same dataset, Carter Jensen owns the third-highest matchup rating, behind only Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone.

Jensen has been tearing the cover off the baseball over his last 10 games, sporting a .914 SLG and .543 ISO while posting a 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.

Over his last 60 left-handed hitters, Taillon has allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .360 xBA, .597 xSLG and .388 xwOBA.

With the entire Royals lineup likely humming around Jensen, the home run upside is even more amplified.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (23%)

It was nearly impossible for me to pinpoint which Royal was in a better spot, so I took both Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.

The Royals’ young power hitters find themselves with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day, while covering nearly 100% of Taillon’s entire pitch mix. Through 30 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Caglianone has left the yard 22% of the time.

Across the big fella’s last 10 games, he sports a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

The entire Kansas City Royals lineup in a great spot, Jensen and Caglianone are the two that stood out the most.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jordan Walker (21%)

For this game being played at Coors Field, still getting a price around 20% is great, especially when backing a power hitter like St. Louis Cardinals big man Jordan Walker.

In his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, Walker has been creating a ton of hard contact while owning a .483 SLG and .207 ISO. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate, while producing just a 30% ground-ball rate.

Walker draws Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG to opposing hitters in his last three starts at home.

Hopefully, Walker can stay hot and connect with a weak offering from Feltner.

Take this down to 24%.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CARD

Best home run combo for September 4

Carter Jensen	Trade Now 104.89x
Jac Caglianone
Jordan Walker

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Max Fried is on the mound at Petco Park against a struggling San Diego team, so I'm riding with him as part of tonight's Yankees vs. Padres predictions.

The New York Yankees are narrow 53% favorites on Polymarket, and should be priced closer to 58% against a pitcher susceptible to the long ball — we're taking this value and running with it.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.

Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (53%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Walker Buehler has coughed up three long balls across his last two starts and will be in trouble against a New York Yankees team looking to deliver the San Diego Padres their eighth loss in their last 11 games.

The ever-entertaining Jazz Chisholm Jr. will likely be the offensive catalyst tonight — he's 6-for-10 with two homers against Buehler in his career (.356 xBA). On the mound for the pinstripes is Max Fried, who's allowed just three earned runs across his last 21 1/3 innings pitched.

What does this all add up to? A Yankees W.

I'd play this up to 58 cents.

COVERS INTEL: Just how good has Fried been this season? He's rocking career lows in xERA (2.50), xBA (.198), and xSLG (.262). Not bad.

Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (53%)

Aside from Chisholm, Buehler actually has a nice history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. 

The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.

Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Trent Grisham (15%)

Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler. 

Not only does Grisham have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts.

Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this season. At 15%, you have to hit the button here — I'm playing this at 0.2 units. Let's fire him up with confidence. 

Yankees vs Padres weather

It's a perfect night for baseball in San Diego, with sunny skies and temperatures sitting at 72 degrees Fahrenheit.

Yankees vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 53% | Padres 48%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (39%) | Padres +1.5 (62%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)

Yankees vs Padres trend

The Under is 5-0 in New York's last five interleague games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.

How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

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Returning from the Bay with a disappointing series split but a 0.5 game lead over the Padres for the final Wild Card spot, the Diamondbacks would welcome the red hot Philadelphia Phillies into town for a quick 3 game homestand where they would look to add to their Wild Card lead over San Diego while also closing the gap between them and the Cubs/Phillies for the 2nd and 1st place spots.

The Snakes would be getting some reinforcements back to start the series as 2nd baseman Ketel Marte would be activated off the IL and play his first game since the series in Atlanta and the first one since the whole Marte saga was all the media would want to talk about for 2+ weeks.

The Dbacks would wind up dropping the series against Philly while struggling at the dish the entire time, Wednesday’s 1-0 win saved them from a sweep at the hands of the Phils but also gave them back their 0.5 game lead over the Padres after they dropped 2 of 3 in Cincy.

Lifeless Offense

A topic that is becoming all to familiar when discussing the 2026 Arizona DIamondbacks is their lack of clutch hitting abilities with runners in scoring position, and sadly that would be another issue that reared its ugly head in these 3 games as the Diamondbacks would not have a single hit with RISP (0-17) and would score just single run in each game. A big part of the lack of offense throughout this series can be attributed to the top 3 in the lineup in Geraldo Perdommo, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno basically disappearing and all combined to go 5-35 with only 1 walk.

It’s been no secret that Carroll and Perdomo have both had their struggles in 2026 (Perdomo did show signs of that turning around as he had a monster month of August) but the best hitter for the Diamondbacks for seemingly the last 2 months in Gabriel Moreno being limited to 2 hits was something that I’d guess most of us weren’t expecting.

Big Game…Bullpen?

In my years of being a DIamondbacks fan (24 of the 28 that I can actually remember at least) I have seen some bullpen arms have a solid season or two (Papa Grande, Putz, David Hernandez, Ziegler etc) but they would be one of the few reliable arms to call upon where I wouldn’t have an “oh boy…here we go” feeling as they came in for relief. The 2026 D’Backs bullpen on the other hand has been nearly the complete opposite, as Mike Hazen has put together the best bullpen he has had in his entire time as the Diamondbacks GM.

Previous years I would have heard “tomorrow is going to be a bullpen game” and my excitement would be drained almost instantly (Maybe I was still having flashbacks to Joe Mantiply starting game 4 of the 2023 World Series), but Wednesday’s masterclass from the pen arms, where they would allow just 3 hits, 2 walks while striking out 9 showed why a lot of us fans haven’t had the doom and despair mindset in regards to this bullpen for most of the year. As of the writing of this article, the Diamondbacks have a total of 8 relievers in their bullpen with an ERA below 3.00 (some of them have been in smaller sample sizes like Dennis Santana,  Derek Law or Justin Martinez but hey 8 sounds better than 5). 

Gabe wanted to give his unsung hero recognition to Brandyn Garcia and what he can provide for this team out of the pen in any situation, whether it’s the 7th against a tough lefty or in the 9th to close out a save situation. Brandon on the other hand believed that Morillo and his consecutive scoreless streak of 17 straight outings earned him the recognition, saying that while every outing hasn’t been the smoothest of rides he has been one of the most reliable arms all throughout 2026. I personally went with Taylor Clarke specifically because of his ability to be used in any situation from being an opener, to being middle relief or even being called upon for more high leverage outings later in games.

Midtember Call Ups

September 1st is the time of year when MLB rosters expand from their usual 26 players to 28 for the final month of the season. For most teams this means that fans might get to see their top young prospects finally get the call to the big league level and either get them excited for the next season (if their team is already out of the playoff race) or maybe even see if they can get an extra spark to ignite their push for October, but us Diamondbacks fans get to see Blake Walston and Lourdes Gurriel Jr  as our additions to the roster.

Instead of seeing young names like Spencer Giesting, Yu-Min Lin, Ashton Izzi or heck even Kristian Robinson get the call and maybe add a little juice to this team that could use any extra boost it can get, we got treated to a soft tossing left handed pitcher in Walston and an outfielder that could barely even seem to hit Triple A pitching as of late.

Blake Walston was a former 1st round draft pick (26th overall in 2019) by the organization but has struggled to really develop as a pitcher (I’ll take 500 for “Least Shocking News” please) and has also dealt with injuries along the way. He doesn’t seem to have much life on his fastball and in this day and age of baseball, MLB hitters aren’t going to be fooled often by 89-90 MPH fastballs. Lourdes on the other hand is now the 7th Outfielder on the roster along with Carroll, Lawlar, Nootbar, Barossa, Waldschmidt and Kepler (Kepler has to have some kind of blackmail on this team, I have no idea how he’s still on this roster) and struggled heavily during his rehab in Triple A Reno, slashing just .107/.182/.107 in his 28 AB’s. 

The three of us all had the same level of disappointment and confusion in regards to these moves, as Gurriel will only be taking AB’s away from the young outfielders in Lawlar and Waldschmidt, while Blake Walston seems to be another draft pick from the early Hazen era that they refuse to give up on and mark as a failed first round pick.

Heading Down to H-Town

With this disappointing but somewhat successful (Didn’t lose any ground to the Padres in the WC at least) series against the Phillies, the Diamondbacks would get ready to head to the Lone Star State to take on the Al West leading Houston Astros and former Diamondbacks in Christian Walker and Dalton Varsho. While yes the Astros are a division leading team, they are only in that position due to the American League West (and most of the AL in general) being mediocre at best on most days. 

The fellas and I agreed that this is a series that the Diamondbacks should be able to at minimum win with the potential to sweep and could be a great time for the Snakes offense to wake up again as the Astros have the 3rd worst ERA for any starting staff in all of MLB. The Astros do have some pop in Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, but outside of them the rest of the Houston lineup is filled with hitters that have sub .700 OPS’s on the year, so it could be the best chance for some of our struggling starters to turn it around and then hand it over to the bullpen to hopefully lock it down.

The Nationals started the last month of the regular season the same way they began August, with 2 games against the Atlanta Braves. This time went a bit better than last, splitting the 2 instead of losing both. While they did drop the second game, they’ve been playing above .500 ball (6-4) across their last 10 games.

With playoff hopes all but gone, it’s time for Washington to play spoiler for the rest of the league. Their next opponent has a comfortable lead in the National League West, but the Nats have a chance to diminish their hopes of getting a playoff bye.

World Series hopes remain at the forefront of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ minds, but their chances of either the #1 seed or a playoff bye are much more pressing needs. They’re tied with Atlanta for the second-best record in the NL, and they sit 4.0 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the top seed. Los Angeles has been on and up-and-down swing as of late, sitting at a 4-6 record across their last 10.

Game One – Friday, 10:10 PM ET

WSH: LHP Jackson Kent (1-2, 5.59ERA)
LAD: LHP Blake Snell (2-1, 2.42 ERA)

Jackson Kent is coming off the best start of his young career the last time through the rotation, throwing 7.0 innings of 1-run ball against the Miami Marlins. He squares off against a veteran southpaw in Snell, who threw to a sparkling 1.17 ERA across 23.0 innings in his first full month back from injury.

Game Two – Saturday, 9:10 PM ET

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (12-5, 3.12 ERA)
LAD: RHP Tyler Glasnow 4-0, 2.79 ERA)

The ceiling for Cavalli continues to be raised with every start he makes, and he enters September with a real chance to finish the season with an ERA under 3.10. Another injury-riddled arm takes the mound for the Dodgers, with Glasnow making just his 3rd start since May 6th.

Game Three – Sunday, 10:10 PM ET

WSH: LHP Andrew Alvarez (2-6, 3.47 ERA)
LAD: TBA

Alvarez, like Kent, is also coming off the most effective start of his 2026 campaign. His 6.0 shutout innings against Miami dropped his ERA below the 3.50-mark, continuing his push for a rotation spot in 2027. Los Angeles will likely use a bullpen game in the finale, with health concerns limiting their starting options.

The Yankees and Angels treated us to a true pitchers’ duel Wednesday night. Reid Detmers held the Yankees to a run on six hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in seven innings while Cam Schlittler went a step better with eight innings of one-run ball on two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts.

While not the most high leverage spot of his start, there was a moment in the sixth inning that I’d like to highlight from Schlittler that shows him at his best as he whiffed Oswald Peraza for his seventh strikeout.

We join Schlittler with Peraza leading off the sixth. To this point, the Angels managed just one base runner, a Vaughn Grissom single to lead off the second. The Yankees opened the scoring in the fourth, Amed Rosario smacking an RBI ground-rule double off Detmers, but the Angels lefty has yet to allow another base runner since.

Schlittler really started dialing in his fastball command to the edges over the previous two innings and saw the strikeouts tick up. Therefore it’s no surprise to see him start Peraza with a four-seamer.

Schlittler paints the outside edge of the zone with this 96 mph heater. The pitch is quite as elevated as he wants, but the slight cutting motion on this four-seamer causes Peraza to hit it off the end of the bat foul the other way. This ability to vary the shape of his four-seamer, which sometimes cuts but other times runs arm-side, is a subtle but effective wrinkle by Schlittler to keep hitters off balance.

We see this variation in shape the very next pitch as Schlittler attacks with another four-seamer.

See the way this 97 mph heater runs instead of cuts? Perhaps fooled a bit by this wrinkle in movement, Peraza whiffs through a pitch that lands pretty close to middle-middle as the pitch moves in toward the label rather than towards the barrel.

Peraza has shown zero indication that he is able to put Schlittler’s four-seamer in play, so an obvious choice after back-to-back fruitless swings against the pitch would be to climb the ladder above the zone.

Once again, Schlittler isn’t quite able to elevate this pitch to the spot he wants, which is why Peraza is able to foul it off to stay alive rather than whiff underneath it for the strikeout.

At this point, Schlittler seems pretty determined that this AB has to end with him blowing a four-seamer by Peraza. Given how late Peraza continues to be with his swings, the opportunity still exists if he can just get it above the zone instead of at the top of the zone.

Same pitch, same result as the last two four-seamers. These fastballs are high enough to keep the baseball above Peraza’s barrel but not quite high enough to prevent him from fouling it off.

It’s worth noting that that last swing from Peraza was the most on time to the fastball. Perhaps Schlittler and Ali Sánchez pick up on this, because they throw the perfect pitch for a hitter hunting the hight heater — a curveball that starts high before plummeting below the zone.

Schlittler throws an absolute hammer of a curve, this pitch falling four feet during its course home despite being thrown at 87 mph. Peraza looks absolutely foolish as he whiffs through this pitch. He’s not the only hitter to be made to look silly against Schlittler’s curveball. It has emerged as a true unicorn pitch given the speed he throws it at, but still maintains superior downward depth, which explains why hitters whiff with close to the most vertical miss distance of any curveball in baseball. Not only does the pitch boast unique physical characteristics, but Schlittler’s ability to tunnel it with the four-seamer unlocks the true potential of the pitch.

Jut look at the way the curveball and the previous four-seamer look like the same pitch for much of their journeys toward home before the curveball drops off the table after the hitter has started his swing.

Here’s the full sequence:

Schlittler’s gem came at a critical time, both on a personal level and from a team perspective. On a personal level, this start represented a nice bounce-back from a career-high five walks in his previous start. There seemed to be a concerted effort to attack the zone more from Schlittler. This command was on display as seen by the tight, precise grouping of the four fastballs to Peraza, which is also evidence that Schlittler did his homework on the scouting report which reveals Peraza’s weakness against up-and-away heaters. It also shows the confidence Schlittler has to throw four straight heaters in or around the zone, knowing his fastball is good enough to beat you no matter the count. Finally, Schlittler had to author a gem to stay neck-and-neck with Dylan Cease in the AL Cy Young race, the Blue Jays starter having pitched six scoreless innings earlier in the day.

From a team perspective, the Yankees at a minimum needed to win two of three from the worst team in baseball. They also needed to capitalize after the Rays lost to the Mets earlier on, each game gained in the standings worth their weight in gold now that we are into September. To have their ace pitcher firing on all cylinders in effectively a must-win game bodes well for their chances in the final month of the regular season.

The last time the Braves came to town, the Phillies were a mess. The Phillies of mid-April couldn’t get out of their own way, and the Braves certainly took advantage, winning all three games by a combined score of 16-3. The Phillies did slightly better when they visited Atlanta the following week, as they were actually able to win a game, but the Braves’ 5-1 record in those two series was a big reason they were able to establish a lead in the National League East standings.

Thankfully, the Phillies are no longer a mess. Most importantly, the starting rotation is in nowhere near the same shape as it was then. In those two series, the Braves got to face Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, and Andrew Painter a combined four times. Walker is gone, Painter’s turn won’t come up (although that might be to the Braves’ advantage), and Nola has been resurgent.

As it stands, four games separate the two teams in the standings, which happens to be the number of games they’ll play against each other this series. The Phillies have done well to get themselves back within striking distance, but they have to take advantage of this head-to-head matchup.

Opposition research: Chris Sale

Chris Sale is once again in contention for the National League Cy Young Award, and will have a strong case for the Hall of Fame when his career is over. But we shouldn’t let those pitching accolades make us forget that the guy is kind of nuts.

In 2016, while Sale was on the White Sox, team president Kenny Williams decided that Adam LaRoche’s 14-year-old son Drake was spending too much time in the clubhouse and put restrictions on how much time he could spend there. Adam decided he’d rather retire than deal with tose restrictions, and Sale was extremely upset about it, unloading on Williams, and hanging two LaRoche jerseys in his locker in tribute.

Later that season, the Sox were scheduled to wear special throwback uniforms, but Sale found them uncomfortable. So, as one does, he waited until the rest of the team was warming up, and he cut up the uniforms with scissors.

Then in 2018, he missed a playoff spot after going to the hospital with “abdominal distress.” He explained it was due to irritation to a belly button piercing…which wasn’t actually true. Maybe it’s me, but if my star pitcher had to miss a playoff start, I wouldn’t be all that excited about hearing him joke about it.

It’s also worth remembering that at the end of the 2024 season, he skipped his final start of the season – a must-win for the Braves – possibly because he didn’t want to cost himself the ERA title, which would have hurt his chances in the Cy Young voting.

He’ll face off against Cristopher Sanchez in the opening game of the series, and its a shame that such a good matchup will feature the Phillies’ City Connect uniforms. Perhaps they should invite Sale into their clubhouse and conveniently leave out a pair of scissors so he can do his thing?

Hating on the Braves

I’d prefer the Phillies win the National League East, because winning is almost always better than losing. But if they do fall short, there’s a chance that they could face off against the division champion Braves, and as we all know, that hasn’t gone very well for Atlanta.

I’d take more pride in the Phillies’ 3-0 playoff series record against the Braves, but the fact is, the Braves have a rather poor playoff record against just about every team. Sure, they’ll pull off a fluky World Series win every 26 years or so, but most of the time, it’s a matter of when, not if the Braves are going to fall apart.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: In the Phillies’ first ever win against the Angels, Vicente Padilla, Rheal Cormier, and Jose Mesa combined for a shutout. SLDH got two of the three first.

This week’s question: What player had the most total hits in the 2023 NLDS between the Phillies and Braves?

Yay, Trea

I’m worried that my constant negativity about Trea Turner has helped bring about his downfall. Since I’m probably going to have to endure seven more years of him on the Phillies, I’ve decided to change my mindset and become his biggest fan. I’m going to ignore how bad his body language looks at the plate and try to treat every flail at a low and outside pitch with a “You’ll get ‘em next time!” I’m going to stop panicking every time a seemingly routine ground ball is hit to shortstop.

While I may not be in attendance at any of these games, I’m going to give Turner a personal standing ovation at home every time he comes to the plate. I encourage all of you to do the same. After all, it’s not like it could make his season any worse.

Additional thought about the series

We have a very interesting foursome of pitching matchups in this series, and it’s tough to give a clear edge to either team:

Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sanchez – As good as Sanchez has been, Sale might be the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break.

Martin Perez vs. Zack Wheeler – Wheeler is the better pitcher, but Perez has been better lately.

Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola – Both had bad starts to their season but have been good recently.

Grant Holmes vs. Jesus Luzardo – Holmes has had a solid season, but Luzardo has been amazing since the start of May.

With not much separation there, it seems likely that these games will come down to which bullpen performs better. Obviously, the Phillies are confident in Jhoan Duran for the ninth, but getting to him hasn’t always been easy. It looks like Don Mattingly is going to keep putting Jose Alvarado and Orion Kerkering out there in the late innings no matter how many times they fail.

It would be great if both Jonathan Bowlan and Alex McFarlane can show that they’re ready for those high leverage innings. My heart can only take so much of seeing Alvarado and Kerkering trying to record key outs with runners on base.

Or the Phillies’ hitters could just go off on the Braves’ starters and not even have to worry about high leverage relief innings. That would be swell too.

It seemed too far to think about back on May 22 when the Atlanta Braves were up by 10.5 games in the NL East standings. It felt terrifyingly frustrating when that lead was whittled down to just two games on July 12 following a terrible June and a slow start to July. There was nearly a sigh of relief on August 12 when the lead had gone back up to 9.5 games for the Braves.

So here we are in early-September and it turns out that these seven games between the Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies this month are likely going to decide who’s going to win the division. A lead that once felt comfortable early in the season (and even last month) has now gone down to four games — which is coincidentally the number of games that these two teams will be playing in Philadelphia through Labor Day Weekend.

The good news for the Braves is that, well, the lead is still four games. By hook or crook, the Braves have continued to find a way to win games and hold onto the lead, even with the Phillies having put pedal to the metal in recent times. As such, Atlanta’s still in the driver’s seat to hold onto the divisional title — FanGraphs is giving Atlanta an 84.7 percent chance of winning the division heading into this series and they even have an outside shot at getting the bye to the Divisional Round as well. They’re tied with the Dodgers but they have the tiebreaker thanks to winning that season series and while Los Angeles has a cakewalk (on paper) down the stretch, they’ve still got to play the games and there’s no guarantee that the Dodgers are going to avoid getting tripped up, themselves.

PECOTA is a bit more skeptical of Atlanta’s chances of holding onto the division but not by much — that model is giving Atlanta a 70 percent shot at winning the division and a 30 percent shot at making it as a Wild Card. Perhaps the most important thing to note here is that unless Atlanta has the ultimate collapse, the Braves are likely going to be playing baseball in October no matter what. So even if the worst-case scenario plays out over the course of this weekend’s series, as long as Atlanta avoids the collapse to end all collapses across the rest of September then they’ll be getting into the bracket.

With that being said, it sure would be nice to see Atlanta get on a roll, nail this division down and go for the bye. As frustrating as the past three trips to the Postseason have been for the Braves (especially the first two of those three appearances), getting the bye is still a pretty big deal. It’d allow Atlanta to reset their rotation, the bullpen would get some much-needed rest and they’d start out in a five-game series instead of an ever-volatile three-game series. As much as it would seem like simply going straight into the Postseason in the Wild Card round would be beneficial to keep everybody in the usual swing of things (pun intended as far as the offense goes), it is still extremely risky to have your entire season come down to just three games.

It’s especially risky to try to play the matchups as well. With the way the National League has been this season, there’s really no favorable matchup to try to “tank” for — no matter if it’s the Cubs, Diamondbacks or Padres (maybe even the Marlins if they get hot down the stretch or even the Phillies if they run out of gas), the Braves are going to be in for a fight no matter who they get drawn with in any given three-game series. The home field advantage will be huge but it’s still going to be difficult.

As such, it’s going to be absolutely crucial that the Braves get a move on for the rest of this month and it starts this weekend in Philadelphia. Of course the ultimate goal is to simply put everything way this weekend with a sweep but I think we’ve all got to operate in the reality that that’s a highly unlikely result. The series opener on Friday with Chris Sale starting against Cristopher Sánchez feels like it really might set the tone for the next three days. If the second game comes down to Martín Pérez having to get a result against Zack Wheeler (who’s been scuffling as of late), I’d have confidence in Pérez at least being able to keep Philadelphia within striking distance or even quiet. Pérez has been getting massive results all season and there’s no reason to have that faith waver at this point.

Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola is going to be a pretty massive matchup between the crown jewel of the trade deadline (go figure) and a Phillies vet who has been finding a bit of a second wind lately. Hopefully by Monday, the Braves will have clinched at least a split of the series since it would be asking a ton out of Grant Holmes to go out there and deliver a big performance with Jesús Luzardo looming on Labor Day. Essentially, I’d imagine that Atlanta going into Monday having to get the split or even attempting to salvage simply leaving town in first place would be a tough spot to be in so again, hopefully the Braves will have already picked up two wins before Monday rolls around.

The two biggest questions as far as the bats are concerned for both teams is this: Can Atlanta’s lineup figure it out away from Truist Park and can the Braves neutralize the lower portion of Philadelphia’s lineup? Bryce Harper has been on a real heater lately (even for his standards) and it’s part of the reason why the Braves decided that they didn’t want Bryce Elder going anywhere near the guy during this series. Kyle Schwarber is always a looming threat but he hasn’t been producing at a super-high level since the start of August. Still, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have been dangerous lately and it really feels like Harper, Bohm and Stott are going to be the guys to be extremely careful with. Luis Arraez could also be dangerous as well.

Still, the lineup outside of Harper isn’t too imposing and the Braves are not-too-far removed from having mostly neutralized the top of Los Angeles’ lineup. The main problem in that series was the bottom portion of the lineup doing damage and potentially setting things up for the top guys. The Braves got away with it against the Dodgers — they may not have the same fortune if the top of Philadelphia’s order comes up with ducks on the pond.

Still, none of this matters if the Braves can’t figure out a way to put runs on the board. Granted, most of their road trips since July have involved them dealing with some of the very best pitching that baseball has to offer this season and as such, Atlanta has only hit .224/.278/.341 with a .274 wOBA and just 70 wRC+ away from home since the break — tied with the Yankees for the worst mark in all of baseball in that span. At the same time, hitting away from Truist Park has been a bit of a struggle for the Braves throughout the season. Atlanta is hitting .238/.303/.392 with a .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ on the road throughout this season compared to a .259/.322/.433 with a .330 wOBA and 109 wRC+ so far this season.

Is the offense that showed up in Washington going to make their presence felt in Philadelphia? Will Ronald Acuña Jr. getting that 200th dinger finally encourage him to start getting things rolling at the plate? Can Mauricio Dubón keep coming up with massive two-out hits? Will Matt Olson come out of his recent doldrums in time for this series? Will an unlikely hero emerge like Ha-Seong Kim, Lane Thomas or even the suddenly-hot Sean Murphy? Does Michael Harris II have some more larger-than-life moments left in him in this particular ballpark? It’s all on the table heading into these next four games.

They’re going to have a massive task on their hands considering how the Phillies have pitched over the course of this season and especially in recent times but plain-and-simply, the Braves are just going to have to figure out a way to rise to the occasion and push some runs across the plate. Just like they’ll need to figure out a way to silence both the bats and the crowd in Philadelphia this weekend. Just like they’ll need to figure out a way to stay on top of the NL East going forward. Atlanta doesn’t need to win this series and a split will probably do the trick in order to keep them in the driver’s seat but they’ll have to go out there and grab it instead of letting the Phillies set the tone.

It may not be October quite yet but the vides are certainly moving in that direction considering just how many times these two teams will be seeing each other over the next 10 games. The most crucial stretch of the season begins this evening. Let’s see if the Braves are up to rise to the challenge that’s ahead of them.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are listed as huge home favorites over the Los Angeles Angels ahead of the 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch at PNC Park on Friday, Sept. 4.

My top Angels vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks expect Pittsburgh to rough up Los Angeles righty Ryan Johnson and take the series opener tonight. 

Who will win Angels vs Pirates today: Pirates -1.5 run line (45.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Angels rank last in wOBA this season while also sitting 29th in xwOBA over the past 30 days, so this is a perfect spot for Pittsburgh Pirates' promising righty Jared Jones to cash in on statistical correction.

Jones sports a respectable 3.84 xERA and 3.83 xFIP across 18 starts this season, so his 4.83 ERA is misleading.  

The Pirates pace the league in wOBA against righties, while Angels starter Ryan Johnson looks overmatched in the majors with a confidence-shattering 5.53 xERA, league-high 5.54 xFIP, and pedestrian 16.5% strikeout rate, setting Pittsburgh up for a productive night at the plate.

COVERS INTEL: The Pittsburgh Pirates boast the highest wOBA on contact in the majors, which measures the true damage and quality of a hitter's contact.

Angels vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (50%)

Pittsburgh has gone Over the number in 20 of its past 35 home games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI), and as highlighted, Johnson has struggled at the highest level.

Additionally, while Jones’ underlying numbers are sound, he’s still surrenderedthree or more runs in four of his past six starts and missed all of last season because of an internal brace procedure after dealing with a barking elbow in 2025.

The Angels only need to chip in to push this total past the number.

Angels vs Pirates home run prediction: Brandon Lowe (19.6%)

Pirates slugger Brandon Lowe has hit 49 of his 60 homers against right-handed pitchers.

In addition to all the noted Johnson shortcomings on the mound, he’s also allowed a healthy .193 ISO to left-handed hitters.

Angels vs Pirates weather

High humidity at PNC Park tonight will make the air dense, potentially limiting ball carry for the Angels and Pirates.

While early innings should proceed smoothly under cloudy skies, a 45% to 55% chance of scattered thunderstorms and light rain later in the evening introduces a high risk of a mid-game rain delay.

Angels vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Angels 38.5% | Pirates 65.5%
• Run line: Angels +1.5 (55.6%) | Pirates -1.5 (45.5%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (50%) | Under 8.5 (50%)

Angels vs Pirates trend

Los Angeles has only won 16 of its last 50 road games (-13.35 Units / -26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Pirates.

How to watch Angels vs Pirates and game info

Angels vs Pirates latest injuries

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