The Yankees aren't just going to be buyers this deadline season.
According to multiple reports, the Yankees are trading reliever Camilo Doval to the Pittsburgh Pirates for two prospects. The deal is in the medical review stage.
Doval, who was acquired from the Giants at last year's deadline, has struggled in his brief time in pinstripes.
In 22 appearances last season with the Yankees, Doval pitched to a 4.82 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, converting one save out of three attempts.
This season, Doval started as the bridge to closer David Bednar and those struggles continued. In 44 games, Doval has pitched to a 4.54 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP.
Doval is still owed around $2 million for the season, which the Pirates will assume $750,000 of it, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman.
New York tried to get Doval back to his All-Star self, but others in the bullpen have stepped up. Brent Headrick, Fernando Cruz, Tim Hill and, most surprisingly, Paul Blackburn are pitching very well for the Yankees this season, whichmade Doval expendable. The Yankees will still look to add to the 'pen, but they now have a spot they can fill.
The Yankees are receiving catching prospect Omar Alfonzo and outfielder Luis Cruz back in the deal. Both will come from the Pirates' Dominican Summer League affiliate.
Alfonzo is the Pirates' No. 17 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. This season, he's played 60 games in Double-A, where he's slashed .239/.338/.420 with an OPS of .758. He has nine home runs, 10 doubles and 35 RBI. The 22-year-old is left-handed.
Cruz, 18, is still in the rookie development system.
CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Guardians acquired outfielder Blake Perkins and right-handed pitcher Craig Yoho from the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday for catcher Bo Naylor and right-hander Codi Heuer.
Naylor and Heuer have been assigned to the Brewers 40-man roster and assigned to Triple-A Nashville. The Guardians have not determined where Perkins and Yoho will report.
The 26-year old Naylor has spent his entire career in Cleveland but has struggled offensively the past three seasons. He was sent down to Triple-A Columbus after the Guardians acquired Patrick Bailey from San Francisco and batted .225 with seven home runs in 45 games for Columbus.
Heuer, 30, was in his first season with Cleveland and split time between the major league club and Triple-A. He was 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in eight appearances out of the bullpen.
The 26-year old Yoho has a career 1.10 minor league ERA. He was 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three stints with the Brewers this season.
Perkins, 29, played 121 games and was a Gold Glove finalist two years ago but has been shuttling between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville this season. He had a .157 batting average in 55 games with the Brewers this season.
NORTH LITTLE ROCK, AR - APRIL 23: Michael Arroyo #8 of the Arkansas Travelers bats during the game between the Corpus Christi Hooks and the Arkansas Travelers at Dickey-Stephens Park on Thursday, April 23, 2026 in North Little Rock, Arkansas. (Photo by Braeden Botts/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
At the All-Star Break’s conclusion, I wrote on expectations, and their virtue as an exercise with this franchise towards a more hopeful future near and far. These Seattle Mariners, 3.0 games back of the AL West and the third Wild Card spot alike, have earned little and less belief. They’ve played poorly, wasted chances, and frittered opportunities to cleanse their palates. Much has rightly been made of the necessity for the core players to perform at or near the standards they’ve set for several years. But Seattle is giving up massive production on the fringes, and they’ve forced themselves into an uncomfortable, desperate position.
It is time for them to call up Michael Arroyo.
Seattle needs right-handed hitting, and with J.P. Crawford sidelined at least for several weeks, there is no easy solution at third base. Brendan Donovan returns on Tuesday to rotate around the field, but it’s hard to look at the lineup as constructed and see anywhere for him to play more frequently than the hot corner. Arroyo has played some third base, but it’s realistically not where he could be thrown in, although his defense is less egregious and more limited if asked to play second base or corner outfield. But they need his bat, because the Mariners need to take some risks, and rotating Weston Wilson, Victor Robles, Rob Refsnyder, Leo Rivas, and Mitch Garver through to take flaccid swing after flaccid swing is a Wile. E. Coyote kind of road that the Mariners have been slamming into the wall of all summer. The Rainiers’ roster is stocked with similar players who’ve struggled to set themselves apart this year and over many years, from Connor Joe to Patrick Wisdom to Stuart Fairchild, along with injured options like Ryan Bliss and Brennen Davis. With Luke Raley seemingly ailing, the M’s have to be more aggressive to rev up their offense before it’s too late.
Arroyo is a 21 year old Colombian ~utilityman whose profile made him the most-heralded hitting prospect from his burgeoning baseball nation since Colombia’s first and greatest star: SS Edgar Renteria. The 5’10, compact youngster has never been at the top of Seattle’s prospect list, but has hit his way into top-100 status nationally over the past couple seasons, with an approach I first wrote about in the winter before the 2024 season. Following a strong debut at age 18 with the Low-A Modesto Nuts, I said this of Arroyo:
Undersized but not underpowered, Arroyo was an excellent offensive force on a Nuts roster that boasted a quintet of potent teenage position players by season’s end. Arroyo’s .234/.389/.373 line belies a few factors: firstly a staggering 18 hit by pitches in just 265 California League plate appearances that both aided his OBP and sent Arroyo to the IL once and to the bench for a few days on multiple occasions. Still, his 9-16 line with a 2B, 3B, HR, and 4 BB in the playoffs and championship helped showcase the young Colombian’s advanced offensive toolkit. Arroyo will turn 19 in November, and already has a knack for elevating the ball with authority due to quick hands and strong wrists. He may be a 2B or 3B, but the bat will be putting him on the radar for a quick progression up the ladder.
Two and a half seasons later, every bit this remains the same, simply against better and better competition. Arroyo is now in Triple-A, where he’s spent nearly a month performing almost identically to each other level. His .300/.368/.479 line between Arkansas and Tacoma this year comes with just a 16.6% strikeout rate and 13 homers alongside 15 steals in 18 attempts. The righty-hitting youngster impressed me early with his ability to make swing decisions later than most hitters could manage, using those strong wrists to flick breaking balls into the outfield grass with acuity far beyond his years. It’s a skill that’s often slowest to develop, if it ever does, for young hitters, where as professionals they face consistently competent off-speed pitches for the first time in their lives.
And yet, that’s part of why Arroyo may never seem overmatched in the moment. His father Carlos was a Mariners prospect who made it up through then-Short Season-Everett, Low-A Wisconsin, and High-A Inland Empire (the latter once again being Seattle’s affiliate, now at Low-A). Alongside his elder brother, young Michael has been steeped in baseball throughout his upbringing in Cartagena, the baseball capital of Colombia. Michael’s pedigree and performance placed him on Colombia’s national teams at every level, starting in his youth and allowing him to represent his country against the best international talents all throughout his teenage years. In the World Baseball Classic, on a roster with established big league veterans like Gio Urshela, Harold Ramírez, and Donovan Solano, Arroyo set himself apart as the premier hitter, ensuring the club’s qualification for the 2026 WBC and then starring to ensure a performance that locked them in for the 2029 WBC as well.
It’s ample preamble to say Arroyo has yet to be overmatched. That’s not to say the big leagues won’t provide ample challenge for him. But his style of play is suited to a transition from the minors in a way some prospects are less clearly. Arroyo is exceptional at putting the bat on the ball when he swings at pitches in the zone, a 91.3% contact rate on such pitches since starting in Triple-A where the data is public, but I’ve watched enough Arroyo to know that’s a continuation of the same thing he’s been level by level. This is dramatically different than, say, Lazaro Montes, who is a player I don’t think merits a call-up, nor even Colt Emerson who was given an aggressive promotion this year as well. Arroyo’s style as a hitter works in the way many of the most successful recent debutants have. If any player in the M’s organization is going to improve Seattle’s offense right now, it is Arroyo.
This club has pushed itself out of the clear driver’s seat it had maintained for months to defend their division title. That forces Seattle’s hand. If they still see themselves as contenders, they have to get uncomfortable and take a swing with a young player who can pour fuel into the engines of the foundering Mariners.
LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 31, 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani (17) walks back to the dugout after being called out on strikes against Boston Red Sox pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) in the first inning at Dodger Stadium on July 31, 2026 in Los Angeles, CA. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Winning the last two World Series has cemented the Dodgers status in baseball history, but it’s really the culmination of a decade of excellence that was present even before the ring count swelled from one to three.
Consistency has been the hallmark for the Dodgers, who over the last 10 seasons have a .628 winning percentage, the equivalent of 102 wins over 162 games. They’ve kept up that pace for an entire decade, after previously topping out at 102 wins (twice) in their first 59 years in Los Angeles.
Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 49 different regular season baseball months (including March/April and September/October), and in 46 of them they’ve outscored their opponents.
The three months the Dodgers were outscored:
July 2024: 104 runs scored, 137 runs allowed
July 2025: 91 runs scored, 114 runs allowed
July 2026: 105 runs scored, 113 runs allowed
In addition, July 2024 (11-13) and July 2025 (10-14) are the Dodgers only losing months since March/April 2018 (12-16). Despite getting outscored this July, the Dodgers managed a winning record (13-11), thanks to winning their first four series after the All-Star break.
Now August is upon us, with 12 home games and 15 road games on the docket. The Dodgers finish off the interleague portion of the schedule this month, with two more games against the Red Sox this weekend followed by the Royals at Dodger Stadium (August 10-12) and facing the likely Skubal-less Tigers in Detroit (August 28-30).
Two National League West opponents await this month, at the Diamondbacks next weekend (August 7-9) then at the Rockies from August 17-19. Also in August, the Dodgers (69-41) face the other two division leaders jockeying for seeding in the NL playoffs, hosting the Brewers (68-41) from August 13-16 and visiting the Braves (65-45) in Atlanta from August 25-27.
The Dodgers get August off on the right foot, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound on Saturday. Left-hander Peyton Tolle starts for the Red Sox.
The Detroit Tigers are -145 favorites against the Athletics this evening.
With their powerful offense set to face a pitcher who can't keep the ball down, my Tigers vs. A's predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team on Saturday, August 1.
Who will win Tigers vs A’s tonight: Detroit Tigers moneyline (-145)
That will help him sap power out of the Athletics offense, as will the absence of Shea Langeliers – who ranks a distant first on the team in wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitching.
Jack Perkins takes grounders to a different extreme. He ranks in the 11th percentile in GB%, which could be disastrous on a scorching hot day with the wind blowing out.
Valdez owns a 6.28 ERA and has surrendered 1.63 home runs per nine innings across eight starts against teams that rank among the Top 10 in OPS versus left-handed pitching. The Langeliers injury hurts, but the Athletics still have guys who can do damage.
Bet to -125.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 66-60, -7.25 units
Over/Under bets: 69-52-5, +8.49 units
Tigers vs A’s weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around 100 with winds blowing out. Clear boost to the offenses.
Tigers vs A’s odds
Moneyline: Detroit -145 | Athletics +125
Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+105) | Athletics +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-115) | Under 10.5 (-105)
Tigers vs A’s trend
The Over is 4-0-1 in Detroit's last five games against sub .500 teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. A’s.
How to watch Tigers vs A’s and game info
Location
Sutter Health Park, Sacramento, CA
Date
Saturday, August 1, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
Detroit SportsNet, NBC Sports California
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez (5-7, 4.53 ERA)
A’s starting pitcher
Jack Perkins (2-6, 6.45 ERA)
Tigers vs A’s latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
There are few franchises in sports with more history than the Chicago Cubs and the New York Yankees. It is fitting that they will face off tonight in a national game showcased on MLB on Fox at 6:15 p.m. CT. As Al noted in his series preview, in their infinite wisdom Fox has once again decided that the booth for a Cubs game should include a former White Sox catcher who Michael Barrett once punched in the face and long time Cardinal pitcher, Adam Wainwright. At least Adam Amin is a Cubs fan.
But questionable announcing is why Baseball Bingo exists. The original impetus for this series was the ESPN booth that saw Matt Vasgersian rant about the audacity of bachelorette parties in the bleachers and Alex Rodriguez make the case that Javier Báez would be a better baseball player if he were more boring. The ESPN booth got much better over time, but they also no longer host Sunday Night Baseball. Enter, stage right, Baseball Bingo during the Cubs non-Marquee Sports Network games.
One fun fact to keep an ear out for, while the Yankees have 27 World Series Championships and the Cubs lag far behind with just three World Series wins in their 150-year history, this meeting of these crown jewel franchises occurs with the Cubs having won the more recent Commissioner’s Trophy. The panic in Yankee Fandom over not having won it all since 2009 is real and palpable.
As always, if you want a challenge make it a blackout game, I really don’t recommend making it a drinking game unless you’re trying to black out.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 21: Starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez (40) of the Atlanta Braves sits in the dugout between innings during the Tuesday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres on July 21, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
With a comfortable win Friday, the Braves will have two chances to win the series against the Nationals ahead of the trade deadline Monday, with this first chance coming behind Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. Reynaldo has been serviceable since returning to the rotation but there are still weird inconsistencies in his arsenal and velocity and he hasn’t blown people away either. Fortunately his counterpart for the Nationals is a 37 year old Miles Mikolas, who boasts a 4.75 xFIP that is by far the most favorable among xFIP, FIP, ERA, and xERA.
Reynaldo has largely been a two pitch pitcher, with his fastball and slider that still boast solid traits even with diminished velocity (that velocity sure does help though). He mixes in a curve about 10% of the time and the ever so occasional changeup, but those two pitches are mostly what he uses. As long as he continues to be a serviceable rotation starter that would be entirely acceptable, however.
Mikolas has generally has a very Bryce-Elder-plus-type of career, with a few extra ticks of velocity on Bryce and a bit better command, but chronically low strikeout rates and more durability than value above replacement level. Now at 37 years old, his strikeouts have cratered down to around 1 strikeout every 2.0 innings and there’s only so much walk avoidance and a decent ground ball rate can carry a pitcher without strikeouts. This is a game that the Braves’ offense should be able to handle against a diminished pitcher, but its baseball and Reynaldo Lopez is not Chris Sale, so only the game can truly show us what will happen. Mikolas has a large arsenal and doesn’t walk hitters, but his pitches aren’t very good so the Braves’ hitters should hit them hard, far, and often. How’s that for tactical analysis?
Sep 2, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kevin Herget (57) pitches in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images | David Reginek-Imagn Images
After pitching five innings in last night’s loss to the Marlins, Xzavion Curry was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse ahead of today’s game. In his place the Mets recalled New Jersey native Kevin Herget to take his spot in the bullpen.
In Curry’s five Mets appearances in 2026, he’s been worth 0.2 bWAR, pitching 11 innings to a 3.27 ERA. Last night, he took over for Kodai Senga with no one out in the fifth and allowed two runs on six hits while striking out two and not walking a batter across his five innings of work. Curry saved the bullpen for the last two games of the series and has been rewarded for his hard work by a trip back upstate. He would not have been available for a few days after his performance last night, and with the likely departure of a few additional bullpen pieces over the next few days, this does not appear to be Curry’s last time on the big league roster.
Kevin Herget is making his 2026 MLB debut for the Mets. Last season, he appeared in six games for the Mets and one for the Braves across 13 total innings. Herget has spent most of 2026 on the Injured List, and was just assigned to Syracuse four days ago.
The Boston Red Sox move on from their most successful month in franchise history as they face the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine tonight.
The market still isn't giving them much respect (+144 on the moneyline), but my MLB predictions are.
See why I fancy the visitors with my Red Sox vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.
Who will win Red Sox vs Dodgers tonight: Red Sox (+140)
Substantial plus money available on the hottest team in baseball? I'll bite.
The Boston Red Sox have won four consecutive Payton Tolle starts. The precocious southpaw has a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road, and he can hold down a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that has underperformed against left-handed pitchers this month (98 wRC+).
Boston's edge in the bullpen (2.50 FIP since the Break to L.A.'s 5.36) isn't accurately accounted for in the price. I'd play the underdog to +130.
COVERS INTEL: Tolle finds success in large part due to his 90th percentile chase rate and superb 19.5% K-BB%. That'll play against the Dodgers, who have been prone to swing and miss since the Break (12.7% SwStr%).
Red Sox vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-107)
It may be a low number, but it's that way for a reason. Sign me up for the Under with two elite starting pitchers on the bump.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than two earned runs in nine of his last 11 starts. Here's for yet another strong outing against a lineup with an 81 wRC+ against RHP in the last 14 days.
Boston has cashed the Under in six of Tolle's last nine starts due to his excellence. This team is 2-8 O/U in its last 10, and the low-scoring ways will continue, especially when the relief pitchers are hurling with unprecedented effectiveness (1.61 ERA since the Break).
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 28-29, -5.2 units
Over/Under bets: 36-22, +12.6 units
Red Sox vs Dodgers weather
It will be a warm and slightly humid evening in La La Land, with slight winds blowing out to centerfield.
Red Sox vs Dodgers odds
Moneyline: Red Sox +144 | Dodgers -150
Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-144) | Dodgers -1.5 (+138)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-104)
Red Sox vs Dodgers trend
The Red Sox have won seven straight games when priced as the underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Red Sox vs Dodgers and game info
Location
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Saturday, August 1, 2026
First pitch
9:10 p.m. ET
TV
NESN, SportsNet LA
Red Sox starting pitcher
Payton Tolle (6-6, 3.32 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-6, 2.72 ERA)
Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Rasmussen will face the Chicago White Sox tonight, who have a pedestrian 98 wRC+ over the last week. The veteran has also cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in two of his previous three appearances.
The 31-year-old has also pitched well at home, posting a 2.81 FIP this season. He'll keep the White Sox at bay.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN, Rays.TV
Alex Bregman Over 0.5 singles (-110)
Alex Bregman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He's batting .407 over his last six games, and the Chicago Cubs star is in the midst of a five-game hitting streak.
During that span, he has smacked 11 hits, and five of them have been singles. I would've targeted total bases for Bregman, but due to limited odds at DraftKings, I'm eyeing him for a base knock tonight against Max Fried.
Bregman has historically swung it well against Fried as well, going 6-for-16 lifetime with five singles.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: FOX
Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 runs (+115)
Jeremy Pena has been a production machine for the Houston Astros lately. He's hitting .393 over his last six games with eight runs. Pena also has a .414 OBP and .507 wOBA during that span.
The shortstop has reached base safely in 12 straight games, and he's collected at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances. Pena will face Jacob deGrom tonight, who has a 4.26 xERA over his last two starts.
For what it's worth, Pena also has a good track record against him, although it's a small sample size. He's 4-for-13 lifetime.
I'll play this pick down to -120.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: RSN, SCHN
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 2-1, +1.12
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
May 23, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets pinch hitter Tyrone Taylor (28) celebrates after scoring against the Miami Marlins during the ninth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Last week, Ken Rosenthal estimated that the Mets would likely trade ‘around six’ players this trade deadline. This morning, he continued with the same logic, citing six as the over/under for the club.
“I recorded a video last week saying the over-under for the Mets was six trades. They easily could make more than that if they dug deeper into their roster. I don’t anticipate that happening, but imagine if they traded all of their players on expiring contracts, one of their catchers AND Francisco Lindor. Yikes.”
According to Bob Nightengale, never exactly the most reliable source, the Mets are telling teams that Lindor is off-limits “for now.” The hypothetical trade of Lindor has always been more speculative than rooted in any real reporting, and if the Mets are serious about contending in 2027, it seems awfully hard to do that without Lindor.
With A.J. Minter already off the table, there are a number of players on expiring contracts that the Mets seem most likely to trade, starting with left-handed reliever Brooks Raley. Starrer Freddy Peralta and outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor, all on expiring contracts seem poised to be moved as well.
The other players that the Mets may unload depend on a few factors. Do they believe that Huascar Brazobán will ever have as much perceived value as he does right now? Are they willing to risk the stigma for future free agents by trading their newly extended backup catcher in Luis Torrens or their closer under contract for two more seasons in Devin Williams? Will they be blown away by an offer to Luke Weaver? Can they not work out an extension with Clay Holmes, and therefore move him as well?
It figures to be a busy 50 hours before the deadline.
We usually don’t do labs over the weekend, but with the trade deadline looming it seemed like a good time to put the Astros offense under the same microscope that we put the pitching. It is one thing to look at overall numbers and it is something else to break it down further to see exactly what we are looking at. The numbers you will see are up to the minute numbers through Friday night’s schallacking of the Texas Rangers.
We will also put one player under the microscope as well. It isn’t the most pleasant of news, but we have to face some pretty grim things before the deadline when we are deciding whether to add more pitching or whether to add more offense. First, let’s break down the overall offensive numbers the same way that we broke down the pitching.
Runs per game
Slash
HR/G
SO/G
BB/G
March/April
5.25
.365/.345/.457
1.25
7.72
3.94
May
3.55
.219/.287/.376
1.34
8.41
2.55
June
4.67
.238/.310/.414
1.37
8.52
3.44
July
5.17
.251/.327/.436
1.65
8.39
3.30
More than one thing can be true at the same time. The Astros offense can both be better than last season and also not quite as good as it looked early in the season. The team had a collective .802 OPS in March and April. There was no way they were going to keep that up. All of the gains they made in April they nearly gave back in May. That is one of the reasons why they reached their low mark in May 20th. It was a perfect storm of historically bad pitching and then matched with historically bad offense.
The team has stabilized since then to be better than they were in 2025 but not quite as good as they were in March and April. If we agree that the hitting is a mirror image of the pitching then we would also surmise that we could look at March and April and compare it with May on to see what the Astros offense actually is. We could then compare that with the MLB average.
Runs/G
SLASH
HR/G
SO/G
BB/G
March/April
5.25
.265/.345/.457
1.25
7.72
3.94
May-July
4,41
.235/.306/.408
1.44
8.44
3.08
Just like with the pitching, we have to look at the offense in the way it is producing right now. The months of March and April were unique for both the hitters and the pitchers and they don’t accurately reflect who they currently are. Make no mistake, the offense is still okay when you factor in that May was an unusually bad month offensively. As we saw with the pitchers, a .720 OPS is the league average OPS. The Astros offense has been producing at that clip from May 1st forward.
A large part of the offense and the fluctuating numbers are the individual components. We have seen an uptick in July as Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes have gotten hot. However, there is one key figure that has fallen off since March and April. In order to soften the blow I will utilize the Player A and B test. However, this one is a trick question.
SLASH
HR/150
SO/150
BB/150
Player A
.219/.286/.344
15.6
121.8
53.1
Player B
.222/.271/.382
17.1
87.3
22.8
This is a trick question. Both players are Jose Altuve. The first is Jose Altuve from his disastrous 2020 season. The second is Altuve from May forward this season. Obviously, there are a different number of games involved, so we did most of the numbers projected out to 150 games played. Make no mistake, that 2020 season was a special kind of awful for Altuve and might be the main thing that keeps him from getting to 3000 hits if he does fall short.
However, the 2026 season has been nearly as rough in many ways. In particular, the lack of patience has been glaring and that is especially true considering how the year got started. When one major cog in the system falters then that can explain an overall drop in production for the lineup. Fortunately, Altuve’s play has been covered up by Pena and Paredes resurgence, but if we include what Christian Walker has done the last couple of months then we can see the push and pull factors that impact an offense.
Essentially, Jose Altuve has been the same player as Cam Smith since May 1st. Couple that with the overall production at catcher, left field, and center field since that time and you can see why the Astros offense sometimes sputters. On some days it looks like it did last night when the hitters at the bottom of the order come through. On other nights it can look bleak. The Astros can’t really replace Jose Altuve, but they can cover him up by improving elsewhere. The need for hitting might be more acute than the need for pitching. That especially depends on how everyone feels about Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesnescki.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JULY 23: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves takes the field to start the game against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park on July 23, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The post All-Star Break portion of July was a fun one for the Braves. You probably recall that June was terrible for this team, and the start of July was… okay, because the team played .500 ball instead of continuing to plunge through a June-esque abyss.
Two weeks ago, I asked whether 6-6 to start July was going to serve as a springboard from recovering from both June’s record and the fact that the team just didn’t actually produce for a whole calendar month. The answer is complicated. Or, maybe it’s simple, because it’s a similar answer to when the Braves faked it to that .500 record.
The Braves went 10-5 in their final 15 games of July. They won three straight series coming out of the All-Star Break, including taking three of four from the Padres at home (they hadn’t taken a home series from San Diego since 2018). They then dropped a series to the Mets in New York, but ended the month winning three straight, including two over the Nationals. That’s the second-best record in baseball in that span. All problems solved, right?
On the position player side, the Braves produced enough. They finished sixth in fWAR and seventh in runs and wRC+. I opined at the end of June that they’d need to find a way to have a top-ten offense going forward to succeed, and that’s what they did. They had the fifth-highest wOBA, the ninth-highest xwOBA, and the league’s fourth-biggest xwOBA overperformance. To be clear:
Start of the season through June: eighth-biggest xwOBA underperformance
July: fifth-biggest xwOBA overperformance
Thanks, baseball gods! After so many seasons and months of underperforming, no help will be scoffed at.
On the pitching side, the Braves narrowly escaped a bottom-five performance. However, the FIP was stung by HR/FB, as the staff finishing 21st in xFIP-, but 26th in FIP- (also 21st in ERA-). It was kind of a weird turnaround with a middling rotation performance for two weeks and one of the league’s worst bullpen performances… but the bullpen performance was largely just weighed down by letting Connor Thomas eat a blowout loss, the continued roster existence of Tyler Kinley, and a few homers given up by Raisel Iglesias and JR Ritchie.
Put this together, and the Braves are still doing their weird record-versus-production thing that I noted in the middle of this month. A combined 3.5 fWAR in 15 games suggests an 8-7 record, not the 10-5 the Braves pulled off. But, the Braves continued to win close games and leave their terrible performances for hopeless contests. In theory, a team hitting pretty well but not insanely so, even with some a lot of luck, shouldn’t be able to pull away if it has a dire pitching situation. But, the Braves overcame. The game-by-game odds for these 15 games also suggested 8-7 would’ve been expected, so, again, yay.
How are the Braves doing for the season?
The Braves now have MLB’s third-best record. Their division lead is back up to eight games, meaning that despite playing just 15 games after the All-Star Break and winning ten of them, they somehow gained six games on the Phillies. That’s pretty efficient! As a result, playoff odds are back to about 99 percent, and division odds are up to 90 percent. These numbers don’t really budge even if you consider alternative forecast schemas (i.e., ones where the Braves’ current production governs how they’ll play going forward), because August tends to be the point of standings inertia, and an eight-game lead is pretty inertial as far as things go.
Overall, the Braves are middle of the pack (and close to dead average in MLB) in most position player categories. Their July run has made their wOBA equal their xwOBA. The aggregate is still being weighed down by June, of course. The pitching is also middling in similar fashion, split between a bottom-ten rotation performance and top-five bullpen performance. The rotation has a silly eighth/23rd/14th delineation in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, respectively; the bullpen is a much more consistent third/ninth/ninth.
Put all this together, and the Braves’ production without any context suggests a .500 team. Average hitting, average fielding, average pitching. That they’ve been able to pull out one of MLB’s best records amid all this… it’s a little dizzying. This sort of thing is also somewhat starting to catch up to the team in other measures. For example, the Braves are now +4 over BaseRuns, one of the bigger marks in the majors. However, since the Phillies are an absurd +6 over BaseRuns, it’s hard to fret too much about this sort of thing as far as the season standings go.
Still, the Braves do need to make some real improvements if they want the next two months to be as enjoyable as the last two weeks have been — they can’t hope to coast on divine baseball providence. We know as well as anyone just how fickle the presence of that boon can be.
How are the hitters doing?
Maybe the funniest and/or most informative biweekly cut of these data for the season so far.
Drake Baldwin went nuclear after the All-Star Break. He had a rough two games to close out the month, but was batting like a berserker in the ones before that. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Dominic Smith, Joey Bart, Eli White, and Brewer Hicklen were the main beneficiaries of excellent luck on balls in play in this span. On the flip side, Mauricio Dubon caught the opposite, and for some reason, the universe still has it out for Ronald Acuña Jr. Anyway, if you look at the right-hand side, you’ll see that the aggregate lines for Harris, Dubon, and Smith have converged after some large discrepancies in smaller cuts throughout the season. Baldwin-Acuña and Albies-Olson seem to be occupying some sort of grand balancing across them, with the former still substantially unfortunate through the arc of the season, and the latter getting undeserved rewards to make up for it.
You can see the extent of Baldwin’s dominance since his circle up there is like some sort of sinister descending planet that can’t even be fully captured in-frame. Also, Acuña is quarantined in the “punished for crimes of unclear provenance” zone. On the flip (right-hand) side, you can see the inputs and outputs are kinda-sorta working as intended, with only Albies defying the natural order of the universe.
A special shoutout to Jim Jarvis for: 1) producing a respectable .306 xwOBA while also 2) leading the hitters in WPA over these 15 games. It’s actually really impressive that he managed to get a number of big hits, and avoid big outs, while not actually producing particularly good outputs in this span. Again, that’s pretty efficient.
How are the pitchers doing?
I feel like I type the same thing about the rotation every time, more or less.
Chris Sale is awesome. Sometimes he is super-awesome, like in this span, and sometimes he’s just his regular level of hard-to-believe amazing. He’s having another elite season, even if it is a little overshadowed by some freaky young arms doing even better.
The Braves have a few other guys that intermittently pitch like generic middle-of-the-rotation arms with homer problems. These past few weeks, it was Bryce Elder and Reynaldo Lopez; Martin Perez is that kind of guy over the course of the season.
The remaining rotation guys are worse-than-average and may or may not have homer problems. Grant Holmes continues to be miscast as a starter and would really help the bullpen as a multi-inning option that can be deployed in close games appropriately (instead of Elieser Hernandez, Victor Mederos, and a sacrilegious level of prayer from the dugout), but here we are, approaching August.
On the bullpen end of things, Dylan Dodd had a very nice two weeks or so, and Didier Fuentes didn’t take a hit numbers-wise despite doing stuff like pitching in both games of a doubleheader. Raisel Iglesias gave up a few homers, and Tyler Kinley is a problem — or will be, if he gets any more higher-leverage opportunities.
A special shoutout is warranted to Danny Young, who has the most bizarre line. On the season, he’s at 49/142/137; over the last two weeks, it’s 0/127/147. He appears to be the team’s lucky charm — in seven games in this span, he garnered positive WPA in each (and two shutdowns), despite only actually pitching well twice. I think Young can be useful in theory, but he’s still recovering from Tommy John Surgery and is only about 16 months removed from the operation. The current version, where he’s apparently the luckiest man in baseball, is preferable to him still working his way back to full effectiveness and causing the Braves to lose games as he does so.
So, the Braves head towards Monday’s Trade Deadline in a great place standings-wise, if not production-wise. Will that compel them to make a move? I can see it either way.
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: Trea Turner #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies fields against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Nationals Park on June 23, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Earlier this week, we asked you a question about Trea Turner and changing positions. Many of you felt it was fait accompli.
Turner’s defense has been a hot topic for some time now, but it seems that after the All-Star break, it has gotten louder. He has not helped things by playing a poor defense in that time, so naturally we wonder if he will be somewhere else on the field in 2027.
Making such a move in-season would probably never happen unless they make some unforeseen trade that no one sees coming, so now we can really only talk about what happens next season. I had written about his going to center field next season, to which many people thought left field would make more sense. I can see that, but I’d really rather see him using his speed to cover more ground in center. Either way, he should not be the shortstop next year.
Edward 'Slim' Love, New York AL (baseball), 1918, Glass negatives, 1 negative: glass. (Photo by: Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
In the modern era, you can probably recall the exact prospects the Yankees have had that excited you but didn’t pan out. However, thinks like prospect rankings and outlets that cover up-and-coming players are all things that have come about in most of our lifetimes. If you were to open up the history books, you may find a random player who played in just 10 career games and never made it after that. To us, they’re just a name, but at the time, they may very well have been a potential superstar.
Slim Love was one such player.
Edward Haughton “Slim” Love Born: August 1, 1890 (Love, MS) Died: November 30, 1942 (Memphis, TN) Yankees Tenure: 1916-18
Edward Love was born in the aptly-named Love, Mississippi in 1890. The future big leaguer would say that wasn’t a coincidence and the town was named after his grandfather, but that’s a disputed claim. He grew up working on his family’s farm, but played baseball on some local amateur and semi-pro teams, and showed an aptitude for the sport. Helpful to that pursuit was that Love shot up in height, eventually growing to be 6-foot-7. (He was the tallest pitcher in the majors during his career.) His tall, lanky build got him his nickname of “Slim,” but also added a dimension to his pitching prowess.
Love rose pretty quickly from semi-pro player to getting a deal with the minor league Memphis Chickasaws. While his pitching ability impressed Memphis — he even struck out future Hall of Famer Nap Lajoie in an exhibition — he was a bit too raw and didn’t have a great grasp of other fundamentals, such as fielding. He was sent to some lower minor league levels. A good run with the Selma Centralites in 1913 got him noticed by the Southern Association’s Class-A Atlanta Crackers, which at that time was the second-highest level of the minors. His raw talent shone through there and after just a handful of starts, he was signed by the major-league Washington Senators.
Debuting in September 1913, Love made five appearances for the Senators, including one start. He was pretty decent, posting a 1.62 ERA, but was still considered very raw. That plus an injury led to him going back down to the minors and joining the old Los Angeles Angels of the Pacific Coast League. He spent two years there, and — especially in 1915 — was excellent, having refined some of his offspeed stuff. That got him back on the major league radar and the Yankees swooped in and acquired him ahead of the 1916 season.
Love’s first season in New York was a bit of a weird one. He missed time during spring training after injuring himself tripping over railroad tracks, and then contracted malaria in June. Those issues wouldn’t have helped, but he also wasn’t particularly great on the mound. Love posted a 4.91 ERA (60 ERA+), and walked more batters than he struck out.
However, Love’s potential was too much for the Yankees to ignore. Ahead of the next season, manager Bill Donovan said, “If that big fellow ever acquires control he will be as difficult to hit as Rube Waddell was in his best days. No left-hander since Rube’s time had such a good fast ball. His curve breaks fast and his great height will add to his effectiveness.” In 1917, he showed signs of that being true.
Working mostly in a swingman role for the 1917 Yankees, Love was very solid. He posted a 2.35 ERA (115 ERA+) in 130.1 innings, including nine starts. He also put up one of the more impressive pitching performances you’ll see throwing 14 scoreless innings in a game against the Athletics on May 30th. Besides that, Love also lowered his walk rate a bit, giving some hope for the future.
For 1918, Love became a mainstay in the Yankees’ rotation. However, he couldn’t maintain his improvements from the prior season. In 228.2 innings, Love issued a league-high 116 walks, and also put up a 3.07 ERA, which doesn’t sound bad, but equated to a 91 ERA+ in that Deadball Era season. That ended up being the Yankees’ limit, and that winter they traded him to the Red Sox.
Love wasn’t with Boston for long, as the Red Sox traded him to the Tigers just a month after acquiring him. After initially having a salary dispute with Detroit, he eventually joined them and had a pretty solid 1919. However after one bad game and reported rule violations, the Tigers released him in April 1920. While he continued on in the minor leagues though 1930, he never made it back to the majors. He just never managed to get his control under, well, control.
Following his baseball career, Love returned to the Memphis area, where he lived with his wife and worked as a pipefitter. He was killed in 1942 after being struck by a car while attempting to cross a road.
With all the technology at hand today, Slim Love is the type of player that teams today would love to acquire and try and work through his issues. However in the 1910s, there wasn’t a ton you could do besides just asking him nicely to stop walking people.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
COVERS INTEL:
Drew Rasmussen 
Alex Bregman 
Jeremy Pena
