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There have been some high highs and low lows for Jac Caglianone since being drafted by the Royals. He blitzed through the minors spending just 29 games in A ball, 38 in AA, and 12 in AAA before debuting with the big league club last June. That debut did not follow the stratospheric trajectory of his minor league experience. This season, Jac has gotten another chance to show that he belongs. So far, he is taking advantage of it.

Caglianone’s 2026 numbers are not going to jump off the page at anyone. His line of .263/.344/.425 is definitely in the good-but-not-great category. However, it is leaps and bounds better than his line of .157/.237/.295 last year.

These raw numbers are not what I am starting to get excited about, though the on-base percentage is much higher so far than I was expecting. It is the underlying numbers, both offensive and defensive, that suggest he is developing into a solid everyday player. Here are his Baseball Savant percentiles in 2025 vs. 2026 to help illustrate what I mean.

Jac has improved his overall skillset almost across the entire board. He is still a flawed player, mostly because of hi chase rate, whiff rate, and K%. However, he has elite exit velocity and is now getting to it at a much higher frequency. That has pushed his expected stats up into the area where it looks like he is going to be a well above-league-average hitter.

On top of that, his fielding is much, much better than last year. The arm strength was always there, the accuracy is starting to come too, so his throwing looks like it is going to be quite the weapon in right field. A full offseason of preparation to play outfield has also improved his range value immensely and he looks way more comfortable running around in the grass. We do not have a large enough sample size to say he is an above-average defender yet, but he has been so much better than last year that I am optimistic he will, at the very least, not be a liability out there. He even improved his sprint speed over last year, though that is more on a percentile basis than actually changing the top end speed. He is never going to be a burner running down balls deep in the gaps at that size.

Caglianone’s Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which evaluates offensive production based on actual outcomes, is encouraging so far. He ranks 122nd out of 274 MLB hitters with a wOBA of .330. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) – a metric that estimates offensive production based on quality of contact, strikeouts, and walks – is .341, ranking him as well above-average among MLB hitters.

That expected value is predicated on how hard he hits the ball plus being able to barrel the ball much more often than last year. Going from a 12% barrel rate to 17% may not sound like a ton to most people, but that is a 42.5% improvement and enough to put him in the elite. We knew he could hit the ball hard and now he is accessing that ability much more frequently.

The main reason he has not posted elite numbers yet has to do with his chase rate, swing and miss rate, and his launch angle. He is chasing less than last year, so that is exciting even if he is still below-average. This might mean he will progress to a higher peak as he swings at better pitches, but for now he is still missing and striking out too much. The launch angle is the one that is keeping the balls from leaving the park in droves. A miniscule 3.8 degree launch angle is just not where you want a power hitter to be – Eric Hosmer struggled with this during his career. For Caglianone to become the 40+ home run monster we all want him to be, the ball has to get in the air more.

If you chart every ball he has put in play so far, the trend line is slightly positively sloped, but modestly enough that without the line it is hard to tell any trend at all. For Cags to become the Royals’ fearsome middle of the order slugger, this needs to have way fewer negative angles and many more in that 10 to 40 degree range.

As Jac is right now, he is on pace to end the season around 2-3 Wins Above Replacement. That means he is playing as an average-to-slightly above-average everyday major leaguer, despite the flaws. He just turned 23 a few months ago and his progression, plus his power potential, indicates that he is almost certainly going to be a good player. It looks like he may have already surpassed his lower-end threshold.

If he is now an above-average hitter, and an average-ish defensive right fielder, then he is a solid player the Royals can depend on for the next half decade. But he has to get the K% below 30% to pull that off. His ceiling is still very high, and I think we have a decent chance of witnessing something special with the combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen, and Jac. After last season, Cags was the one that seemed like it just might not happen, but now I am fairly optimistic he is one of the cornerstones that this team can build on.

Over the last couple weeks, the Nats offense has not been as consistently excellent as it was to start the season. The start the unit got off to was unsustainable, so you can’t complain about that too much. However, one thing I love is that when the Nats have a bad offensive game, they tend to respond the next night. 

Last night was a perfect example of that. After getting shut out, the boys put up 14 runs on the Mets. In the games following a Nats loss where they scored two or fewer runs, the Nats have scored 6, 5, 7, 8, 4 and 14 runs in the next game. When the Nats have a bad night on offense, they respond by scoring over 7 runs a game the next night.

In the past, the Nats sometimes let a bad game carry over into the next performance. Now, with Matt Borgschulte, it is clear that they are making the adjustments and fixing what went wrong in the previous game. The other night, the Nats had zero extra base hits and 13 ground outs. Last night, they had 6 extra base hits and just 6 ground outs. 

Watching this offense is a ton of fun because of this resiliency. There will be some nights where they just don’t have it, but they will not let that linger. Sure, they have been slowly regressing to the mean and are not a top 5 offense anymore. However, they are still second in runs and top 10 in most offensive categories. 

Based on where they are in the roster building process, an elite offense is too much to expect. James Wood, CJ Abrams and Daylen Lile are the only three guys you can truly call very good hitters. Outside of that, the Nats have role players who can step up some nights, but not on a consistent basis.

However, those role players have done a nice job chipping in. Joey Wiemer had his crazy hot start to the season, Jorbit Vivas has had some nice moments and Curtis Mead has had a few amazing offensive nights. Luis Garcia Jr. is also a guy who is underperforming a bit right now, and I think he will get hot before too long. Jacob Young’s underlying data also looks better.

Overall, I think this offense will be a solid unit. They are very unlikely to end the season being the second highest scoring team in the league, but being a slightly above average scoring offense does not feel unrealistic. As long as Wood and Abrams stay consistent, they have the starpower. They also have a deep bench that allows Blake Butera to play the matchups.

You saw the Nats take advantage of matchups well last night. Curtis Mead and Joey Wiemer both matched up well with the lefties the Mets threw out there, which is why Butera put them in the lineup. Meanwhile, you have guys like Garcia and Vivas who hit righties well. There is also Jose Tena, who has proven himself to be an excellent pinch hitter.

This is not the most talented offense in the world, but it has starpower, and useful pieces. That allows the unit to be adaptable and score against different types of pitchers. The deep bench also allows Blake Butera to ride the hot hand.

The offense has been clicking all season, but they are finally getting some help from most of the pitching staff too. Outside of Zack Littell, the rotation has been stepping up their game lately. Cade Cavalli and Foster Griffin have both been excellent lately, while Jake Irvin is showing signs of improvement. Miles Mikolas has been better in his new role as well.

If this team can get consistent pitching, they could surprise some people as the season goes along. This is not a great team, or even a good one, but so far this season it has been a very watchable one, especially when they are on the road.

There are going to be nights this season where it is not pretty. The talent is not fully in place yet and the pitching staff is not great. However, this team has been resilient and fun. When they get knocked down, the Nats get back up the next game. You can see that in their offensive performances after a bad loss. This team clearly does not like losing, and that is a sign of a good culture. 

Credit to Blake Butera and the coaching staff for instilling this resilience. In addition to being resilient, it is also clear that this Nats team does their homework and learns from their mistakes. After bad games, they usually clean up their act the next night, and I think that is a great sign for the future of the team.

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The Kansas City Royals and the Athletics clash today in the rubber match of a three-game set at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, CA. 

My Royals vs. Athletics predictions are targeting the hosts to add to KC’s misery on the road in the finale. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, April 30. 

Who will win Royals vs A's today: Athletics moneyline (-125)

The Athletics have won two of their last three contests, and they walked away with a 5-2 victory on Wednesday evening. They’ve now won five of their last eight meetings with the Kansas City Royals, and one of their better starters takes the hill today in Jeffrey Springs. 

The lefty has a 3.79 ERA this season, and he’s held opponents to a .197 average.

While the Royals are hitting .304 against him, it’s a small sample size of 23 at-bats, and Springs allowed just one earned run against KC last season in one start. He’s also given up just one earned run in two of his three home outings in 2026. 

As for the Royals, Noah Cameron gets the call, and he owns a 5.13 ERA. On the road, his ERA sits at 5.59, and he’s surrendered 13 earned runs across his last three starts.

The Royals are just 3-11 on the road, and it'll get worse here.

COVERS INTEL: Cameron’s xERA sits at 6.98, which is towards the bottom of the majors. His opponent xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG are also among the worst in the big leagues.

Royals vs A's Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-105)

While I don’t expect either pitcher to be completely lights-out, we likely won’t see a bunch of runs, either.

The Under has cashed in five of the last six meetings. KC ranks 23rd with 4.1 runs per game, while the Athletics are 19th with 4.2. 

Three of the Royals’ last four games have hit the Under, and the Athletics have cashed the Under in seven straight contests.

Also, both ball clubs struggle against left-handed hurlers. Kansas City is batting .229 off southpaws, while the Athletics have hit .217 against lefties. 

Royals vs A's odds

• Moneyline: Royals +108 | A's -126
• Run line: Royals +1.5 | A's -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Royals vs A's trend

The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. A's.

How to watch Royals vs A's and game info

Royals vs A's latest injuries

Royals vs A's weather

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The San Diego Padres dropped a series for the first time since the opening week of the season with a 5-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, but they had opportunities to prevent that. In the end, the offense did not do enough, and the bullpen struggled to keep runs off the board. Miguel Andujar and Nick Castellanos hit their first home runs for San Diego. Both came in the bottom of the fifth inning and broke up what was a no-hit shutout for Cubs pitcher Jameson Taillon. The home runs allowed the Padres to tie the game 3-3, and with Adrian Morejon coming out of the ‘pen, most of San Diego thought the team could author another late-inning comeback to take the rubber match of the series. Instead, the Cubs manufactured a run off the left-hander following a leadoff walk to Michael Busch to start the top of the sixth inning. A ground out pushed him to second base before a double by Matt Shaw put runners at second and third with one out. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit another ground out for the second out of the inning, but Busch scored from third and Chicago took a 4-3 lead. Bradgley Rodriguez came in to get the final out of the inning, but the damage had been done.

Jason Adam came on in the top of the eighth after Rodriguez worked a scoreless seventh and he surrendered a solo home run to Shaw that gave the Cubs a 5-3 lead. The Padres had a golden opportunity in the bottom of the eighth inning. Chicago reliever Corbin Martin allowed three walks to open the inning, which loaded the bases for Fernando Tatis Jr. with no outs. Martin was pulled from the game and Tatis Jr. faced Ben Brown. Tatis Jr. hit a flyball to center field, which allowed a run to score and left runners at first and third with the score 5-4 and Manny Machado coming to the plate. Machado saw one pitch before hitting a ground ball to second base, which resulted in an inning-ending double play and essentially put an end to the game.

The Padres have the day off before hosting the Chicago White Sox for three games.

Padres News:

• Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com explains how Mason Miller could be the first reliever since 2003 to win the Cy Young Award.

• Samad Taylor is trying to keep his results from Spring Training going in the regular season and it resulted in a win for the El Paso Chihuahuas.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the three-game series between the Padres and Cubs could have been a preview of what is to come in October.

• Tatis Jr. is hitting the ball harder than ever according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, but it has yet to result in a home run for the star outfielder.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves stayed hot and kept to their winning ways thanks to a Matt Olson walk-off home run off Detroit Tigers closer Kenley Jansen after Tarik Skubal pitched seven strong innings to start the game.

• Ildemaro Vargas extended his hit streak to 22 games and helped the Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Milwaukee Brewers.

• The Miami Marlins beat the Los Angeles Dodgers, 3-2 and took the series from the defending World Series champions.

• The White Sox walked off the Los Angeles Angels to sweep the series before heading to San Diego.

• Nate Eovaldi delivered for the Texas Rangers as they knock off the New York Yankees.

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The San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies clash this afternoon in the first game of a doubleheader, with first pitch scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. 

My Giants vs. Phillies predictions are targeting Philly to grab another win, with Cristopher Sanchez in line for another dominant outing. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, April 30. 

Who will win Giants vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (-145)

The Philadelphia Phillies won the series opener on Tuesday, 7-0, before Wednesday’s contest rained out. Philly’s offense finally showed some promise in their first game since Rob Thomson was fired.

Today, Cristopher Sanchez takes the hill for the hosts, and he’s been impressive this season.

The lefty has a 2.94 ERA and a 2-2 record across six starts, also striking out 43 in 33 2/3 innings of work. At home, Sanchez is even better, compiling a 1.16 ERA. For comparison, his ERA sits above 6.00 on the road. He also had a 1.93 ERA against the San Francisco Giants last year across two appearances.

Logan Webb, meanwhile, has allowed at least three earned runs across each of his last three outings, and his 4.86 ERA overall rises to 5.00 on the road. The Phillies haven’t had a ton of success against him, but it’s a small sample size, and they’re coming off a seven-run performance. 

COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have won three of their last five meetings with the Giants at Citizens Bank Park.

Giants vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-115)

The Under has hit in three straight meetings, and the pitching matchup is solid. Sanchez is electric, and he clearly feeds off the Citizens Bank Park atmosphere. 

Although Webb has given up some runs lately, he’s still a guy who gives the Giants a respectable five or six innings each start. In fact, he’s gone at least six innings in each of his previous four starts.

Even if Webb gives up some runs, San Fran has faith he can still compete. 

We’re also looking at two teams that do not score a lot of runs. The Phillies are 27th in runs scored, and the Giants are 30th. Despite numerous stars on each roster, the results aren’t there so far.

We’ll see some runs here, likely more from Philly, but it’ll be a low-scoring contest. 

Giants vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Giants +122 | Phillies -144
• Run line: Giants +1.5 | Phillies -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Giants vs Phillies trend

The Phillies have hit the team total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies.

How to watch Giants vs Phillies and game info

Giants vs Phillies latest injuries

Giants vs Phillies weather

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There was a lot of flip-flopping yesterday with games getting rained out and guys not getting into the lineup, but I hit a winner for the third straight day and now have to thank the baseball heavens because of it. It's the only reason the balls are finally leaving the yard, and the MLB player props are starting to hit. 

Kazuma Okamoto is starting to figure it out at the plate, and he's a great option to target in the day's nightcap.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, April 30. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+320
Kazuma Okamoto	+600
Juan Soto	+310
💲Today's HR parlay	+8860

Yordan Alvarez (+320)

The rain stopped us yesterday, but our MLB picks are getting the best hitting matchup at a better price today with Yordan Alvarez vs. Chris Bassitt. Alvarez at +320 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270.

Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in multiple standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career.

Winds are blowing out to right field today, which is even better for the left-handed Alvarez than yesterday's wind. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.

• Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network

Kazuma Okamoto (+600)

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup is turning a corner.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ripping the ball, Ernie Clement is going yard, George Springer is back, and Kazuma Okamoto is putting it together.

There’s still some swing and miss with the rookie, but he’s adjusting. He owns the best Blast Contact numbers on the team and is squaring the ball up at a 54.5% clip over the last seven days.

Pair that with Top-3 bat speed and a strong HR price, and he’s the target indoors vs. Bailey Ober and a bottom-tier Minnesota Twins bullpen.

Minnesota doesn’t have a true closer right now and is using a three-man committee late. Eric Orze is part of that mix, just blew a save yesterday, and is likely unavailable. The fair price is around +500.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, MNNT

Juan Soto (+310)

Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card.

Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs.

Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SNY

Today’s HR parlay

Yordan Alvarez	Bet Now +8860
Kazuma Okamoto
Juan Soto

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The Mets have placed outfielderLuis Robert Jr.on the 10-day IL due to a lumbar spine disc herniation.

Robert was sent for an MRI on Wednesday after his back issue didn't improve with treatment.

Since he has not played the last two games, the IL stint is backdated to April 27.

In a corresponding move, infielder Eric Wagaman was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. Additionally, right-handed pitcher Carl Edwards Jr. was DFA'd and replaced by right-hander Austin Warren.

Losing Robert is the latest blow to a Mets lineup that is already without Francisco Lindor (calf) and Jorge Polanco (Achilles and wrist).

Polanco has been making progress and could return sooner rather than later.

Lindor is expected to get a follow-up MRI in roughly two weeks, at which point more about his timeline should be known. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week that Lindor could have a "relatively quick progression" if all goes well.

As far as Robert, the Mets had slow-played his buildup in spring training and had been giving him scheduled days off in an effort to prevent an injury -- to no avail. 

Aside from Robert, New York has six outfield options on the active roster -- Juan Soto, Carson Benge, Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez, Austin Slater, and Brett Baty.

The road back to pitching in Major League games took a significant step in the right direction for Jared Jones on Wednesday.

Jones made his first appearance of the 2026 season for Single-A Bradenton, marking the first time he pitched against live competition in over a year.

The results? Arguably the best performance by any Pirate in the minor leagues all season.

Jones delivered three perfect innings against the Lakeland Flying Tigers.

The rehab assignment start went well for the 24-year-old right hander. Jones didn’t allow a base runner and struck out five, throwing 41 pitches (30 for strikes).

He struck out the last batter he faced in every inning and the final two in the first and third frames.

The Pirates are building Jones back up to be a starter at the major league level.

Jones earned a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2024 following an eye-opening spring.

The 2020 second-round pick earned a 4.14 ERA in 22 starts with the Pirates striking out 132 and allowing a 1.19 WHIP in 121.2 innings.

Jones missed all of 2025 with a right arm injury that required surgery. Jones experienced discomfort in spring training and tried to rest, but eventually needed surgery to heal his arm issues. 

He last appeared in an MLB game on September 27, 2024, against the Yankees.

Pittsburgh needs Jones to be a considerable part of the rotation, or even back end of the bullpen, to help a staff that doesn’t have strong depth.

The Pirates have lost four in a row, including the first three of a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jones will continue to make rehab assignments across the Pirates’ affiliates and could return to the Bucco staff by the end of May or early June.