I usually want to wait a few days to let the dust settle before writing a commentary piece like this. Going through the trade deadline is a lot like going through the stages of grief. In Economics we teach the concept of opportunity costs. It is simply the idea of the infinite number of possibilities that the future holds. When the future comes and goes then there will always be a letdown. Those infinite number of possibilities gets dwindled down to one, two, or sometimes zero.
So, in the case of this deadline the first core emotion is anger. For those of us clued into the news wire, that anger builds as the day goes on. More and more names go off the board and none of them are coming to you. You look at all of your competitors doing more than you. Yes, we got Daulton Varsho, but there is not one single competitor outside of the AL West that did less.
That anger slowly dissipates the day of the deadline and turns into despair. You suddenly realize you are outgunned come playoff time and there is very little you can do about it. Brown can come on the radio and utter “we aren’t done” or “we’ll chase the fight” all he wants, but it doesn’t change the reality. You have the minor leagues and the waiver wire left. That’s not much to grasp onto. However, there were three factors that impacted the deadline that should be explored in more detail before casting judgement on Brown.
Crane did not want to exceed the tax
Depending on your source, the Astros were somewhere between five and ten million dollars underneath the tax apron following the LMJ trade to the Brewers. That automatically limits your exposure. You probably couldn’t add someone making much more than 15 million dollars due to the prorated nature of contracts at the deadline. So, the talk of adding a George Springer, Robbie Ray, or similar player is complicated given the salary constraints involved.
It is not even as simple as overall team payroll. There are intricate rules involved that go beyond cash actually owed a player. It takes a tax attorney and capologist to figure it all out. Obviously, going beyond the tax not only costs money but being a three time tax payer also comes with penalties and other limitations that go beyond simple cash. How does the new CBA impact that? These are all huge considerations.
Crane did not want to deal from the present roster
The nixing of the Larnach trade probably had more to do with this. So imagine you are given the parameters of not trading from the current roster, not exceeding the tax, or trading major farm pieces and tell me how many quality players you can add. Now, how much does vetoing a trade say about the faith in the current general manager? The last time that happened was James Click and the reported Willson Contreras trade. Who wouldn’t trade Jose Urquidy for even two months of Contreras? Well, apparently Dusty Baker and Jim Crane wouldn’t.
In terms of net WAR, the Larnach trade would have been a huge net win for the Astros. Not only would you get this season’s WAR, but next season as well. However, I suppose someone could make an argument for chemistry and all of that jazz. No matter how anyone feels about Brown, this veto says more than any of us could possibly say on the interwebs.
The farm system is barren
According to most experts, the Astros farm system ranks in the bottom five in MLB. Now, there is a ton of subjectivity there, but clearly teams are not as interested in our prospects as they are in other team’s prospects. Moreover, Brown was tasked with elevating the farm system and he has been on the job for four seasons. Is that enough time? That’s a fair question. Still, when you have only a handful of blue chip prospects, it can be frightening to part with any of them.
So again, if you can’t spend money, can’t trade from the current roster, and can’t trade any of your top prospects then how exactly are you supposed to add an impact bat or arm? I suppose some general managers are adept at making something out of nothing, but Brown has never been a big wheeler and dealer. So, the cards were stacked against him before he even got to the deadline.
What does this all mean?
Ultimately, it means a few things. First and foremost, it means that Jim Crane has likely lost faith in Dana Brown. Whether that means that Brown has done a bad job or not is not particularly important here. After all, we were in the exact same situation in 2022. It could be a function of poor performance or it could be a function that Crane simply won’t have a ton of trust in anyone after what happened during the Jeff Luhnow regime. I could hardly blame him if that were the case. That means that Brown is living on borrowed time and Joe Espada might also be living on borrowed time.
I have stated my piece on both and those opinions largely have not changed. My personal issues with Brown are more in what he has failed to do than what he has done. Most of his trades and free agent acquisitions are defensible given the available information at the time. In other words, if given the same set of facts about hypothetical players, I probably would have done many of the same things. Some of them didn’t work out because not everything in life works out even with the best laid plans.
The problems with Brown is in what he has failed to do. He has been chasing a lefty bat like Captain Ahab chased his white whale for three years. In multiple seasons he has talked about adding a starter at the deadline or adding a key bullpen piece and failed to deliver. You can also point to organization problems that were not addressed effectively. That could include waiting until this season to replace the hitting coaches, never really overhauling the medical and training staffs, or looking heavily into the return to play procedures. Additionally, the public face of the organization is problematic. Many of Brown’s public statements border on the comical. It seems like a very minor critique, but that is the access many fans have to the general manager and the job he is doing.
Brown comes off like a used car salesman at times. He overpromises and underdelivers on a regular basis. It is what some people would call “foot in mouth” disease. The irony is that the actual reasoning behind doing or not doing certain things often makes sense. I get not wanting to trade four or five prospects for a pitcher. I get not wanting to trade your top prospect for a reliever. I get past situations where gambling on health made sense. The public statements around them did not make sense. It’s almost like Brown needs to go to finishing school to learn how to talk to the press.
More than anything though, he will be graded on his two biggest selling points. He came in as a guy that would rebuild the farm system and lock up our younger players to team friendly extensions. He signed one extension and it ended up blowing up in his face. The farm system is still bottom five. Did he get enough time to turn things around? It’s a fair question. Sadly for Brown, it looks like he is out of time. It might seem like a happy moment for Brown critics, but there is the lingering question as to whether any executive will have the juice to get done what needs to get done. This organization is being held together by duct tape and the memory of some great players that aren’t great anymore. The gravy train is coming to an end. It is just a question of when and when that happens there will need to be someone in place that can make the decisions necessary to make the rebuilding quick and as painless as possible.
COVERS INTEL: The Athletics have been substantially worse offensively on the road, collecting an 
D.J. Short
