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The defending NBA champions open as the top seed in the Western Conference for the third straight year when the Oklahoma City Thunder hosts the Phoenix Suns in the opening game of the first round of the playoffs.

With a quirky offense and thorn-in-the-side defenders like Dillon Brooks, Phoenix could cause headaches for the defending champs.

However, my Suns vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks call for OKC to solve the puzzle and roll to a solid cover.

Suns vs Thunder prediction

Suns vs Thunder best bet: Thunder -13 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder had the best defensive rating in the NBA and allowed the second-fewest points, despite not playing at an exceedingly slow pace. The Thunder essentially took the last week of the regular season off, benching 10 rotation players.

That means a team that struggled with injury all year has had 11 days of rest.

Prior to the season-ending shutdown, OKC was clicking. The Thunder had won seven straight, going 5-2 ATS before their skeleton crew dropped the last two regular-season contests.

The Phoenix Suns were the last team to make the field, beating Golden State on Friday in the play-in tournament. Phoenix won two of five against OKC this season, going 3-2 ATS, including going 2-1 ATS in Oklahoma City.

However, one of those games was the regular-season finale, where both teams rested their starters and key bench players. There's a good chance some of the players who participated in that Suns win will even suit up for this series.

The Suns' fluid, pass-intensive offense is something the Thunder didn't see every day, and Phoenix had a top-10 defense. OKC has done well against the Suns' D this season, however, averaging 125 points in the four games where starters played.

That's six points above their season average and 14 more than Phoenix allowed. They also held the Suns to 106 points, more than a half-dozen below Phoenix's average.

Suns vs Thunder same-game parlay

OKC ranked 16th in the NBA in pace this season. Phoenix won't be trying to speed things up—it ranked 24th in pace. Last season, the Thunder turned up the defensive pressure in the postseason. 

Scoring dropped by eight combined points per game in the first-round series and seven points per game in the Thunder's entire playoff run.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been an MVP performer against the Suns this season. He averaged 30 points per game and hit half of his three-point attempts. He also hit 51% of his two-point shots, an area where the Suns were weak this season, allowing opponents to shoot .556 on the inside.

Suns vs Thunder SGP

• Thunder -13
• Under 215.5 points
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Dishing and Swishing!

SGA has also dished out 7.3 assists per game against the Suns this season. He had 33 assists in four April games. Getting plus odds on a 6.5 assist cutoff seems like a gift.

Jalen Green was blazing hot during the play-in games, scoring 35 and 36 and hitting eight treys against the Warriors. Getting plus odds on him also seems out of whack.

Isaiah Hartenstein averaged 9.2 rebounds this season and averaged 10.3 in games when he played at least 20 minutes. 

Suns vs Thunder SGP

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
• Jalen Green Over 2.5 made threes
• Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds

Suns vs Thunder odds for Game 1

• Spread: Suns +13 | Thunder -13
• Moneyline: Suns +561 | Thunder -800
• Over/Under: Over 215.5 | Under 215.5

Suns vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Thunder.

How to watch Suns vs Thunder Game 1

Suns vs Thunder latest injuries

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The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets square off in an intriguing first-round Western Conference playoff series.

The best-of-seven series could come down to who isn't going to be on the floor, instead of who is actually playing.

The Lakers are expected to be without Luka Doncic, who suffered a hamstring injury late in the season, and Austin Reaves (oblique) at least for Game 1, set to tip off April 18 in Los Angeles.

The Rockets have their own injury concerns, as forward Kevin Durant showed up on the injury report this week, with a knee injury.

Durant, who played the second-most minutes in the NBA regular season, and is only 15 points short of 5,000 for his playoff career, sustained the injury in practice.

Kevin Durant injury status

The Rockets say that the 37-year-old Durant is officially questionable after sustaining a right knee contusion this week in practice.

Houston reportedly isn't concerned about the injury, and Durant (26 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game), who played in 78 games this season.

Steve Kerr reflects on moment that ‘derailed' Warriors' 2025-26 NBA season originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

After a third consecutive NBA play-in tournament appearance ended in elimination on Friday night, what went wrong for the Warriors?

Following Golden State’s 111-96 loss to the Phoenix Suns, coach Steve Kerr pinpointed the moment this season that the Warriors went from hopeful NBA title contenders to fighting just to clinch the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed.

“I felt like we didn’t find it early in the season; we were blowing some games that we should have closed out, and I could have done a better job,” Kerr told reporters at Mortgage Matchup Center. “But when Jimmy [Butler] got hurt, it felt like we were finding it. And so I think that injury just derailed us.

“When you look at the rest of the West, you look at the league, teams are loaded. There’s so much talent and so much skill, and to lose one of the best players in the in the game in Jimmy, it can’t do anything but take you off course.”

The Warriors entered the 2025-26 NBA season eager to enjoy a full season of Butler after acquiring the forward before the trade deadline in February 2025. After a slow start this season, Golden State began to click and put together a three-game win streak before playing Butler’s former team, the Miami Heat, on Jan. 19.

Then, disaster stuck when Butler sustained a season-ending ACL tear in the game’s third quarter.

The Warriors went on to win the game and improved to 25-19. But missing Butler, coupled with Steph Curry’s extended injury absence, was too much for Golden State to overcome as they finished the campaign 37-45 with another play-in berth.

Butler’s injury not only impacts this season, but next season, too — as does Moses Moody’s season-ending patellar tendon tear. Both injuries require extensive, grueling rehabilitation, and both players are beloved by their Warriors teammates.

“Moses, he’s developed so well, and he’s such a great young guy, and it was heartbreaking to see him go down,” Kerr continued. “So two injuries that not only affect this year, but next year. That’s pretty rough.”

After years as an NBA dynasty, the Warriors have had to develop an attitude of resiliency during a roller-coaster season. For now, they’ll regroup in the offseason and look forward to the day they’re whole again.

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Editor’s note: part 1 of this Knicks series preview can be found here.

The key matchups: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Let’s look on the Hawks’ side of things, starting with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who averaged 28 points per game on 51% from the field, 45% from three on 11 attempts, and 84% from the line on over four attempts per game in the three-game season series. The incredible three-point shooting from Alexander-Walker was key to his success in the matchup, hitting five threes a game. These came in a variety of manners; all instrumental for Alexander-Walker’s success, and the Hawks need him to repeat his regular season numbers if they’re to have a chance to win this series.

Some of these threes I don’t anticipate repeating; there were a number of threes where the Knicks lose track of Alexander-Walker and allow him open shots that you have to imagine won’t be allowed to repeat in the playoffs. This three-pointer is one such example:

Alexander-Walker punishes a steal attempt and steps into an immediate, open three:

Alexander-Walker — and the Hawks — excel at creating turnovers and pushing in transition, with Alexander-Walker’s threes coming as he bursts to get to his spot on the perimeter.

A New York miss is pulled down by Jalen Johnson, and Alexander-Walker is already busting a gut to sprint ahead of the play. Johnson delivers the outlet to him, and despite the contest of OG Anunoby, Alexander-Walker hits the three:

Off of another miss at the rim, Alexander-Walker is the furthest Hawk forward, and after initially stepping inside, Alexander-Walker backs out and hits a tough corner three with the defense draped all over him:

Following a Knicks turnover, the Hawks are in less of a hurry to bring the ball up, but when Johnson draws a crowd, Alexander-Walker is in the corner and he hits another tough three:

After a steal from Johnson, Alexander-Walker gets to his spot on the right side of the floor, and he hits a three despite the contest of Anunoby:

Alexander-Walker is also unafraid to push the ball toward the rim in these fastbreak situations, as he does late in the game as he procures a crucial steal on Brunson and scores at the rim following the goaltend to give the Hawks a late lead:

After another steal, Alexander-Walker pushes in transition and is able to beat Mikal Bridges to finish at the rim:

Off of a bad pass resulting in a Knick turnover, Alexander-Walker is again the first player forward, bursting ahead and when he receives the ball he finishes at the rim with the dunk:

Looking at some of Alexander-Walker’s offense in the half-court against the Knicks, who made some great drives and finishes at the rim, such as this drive off the Okongwu screen and lifting the layup high off of glass with his left-hand:

Another fun new elements from the last game of the regular season matchup saw a bit of Dyson Daniels/Alexander-Walker screening action, with Josh Hart punished for his momentary lapse as Daniels delivers the ball and screen for Alexander-Walker to rise into the three:

When the Hawks run the same play in the second half, Brunson is undone by the Daniels screen, and Towns isn’t able to step up high enough to contest Alexander-Walker, who hits another three:

This play will likely be one the Hawks try to go to more, but the issues on the New York side I think speak to the other aspect I expect the Knicks to change from the regular season to the playoffs: Jalen Brunson guarding Alexander-Walker.

Often, Alexander-Walker’s height advantage meant he could just shoot over Brunson, who did well to contest some of these shots:

Starting off the ball, if Brunson ends up behind the play, Alexander-Walker is going to have no hesitation to rise into the shot, and if Brunson isn’t immediately there to contest, Alexander-Walker is just shooting over him:

One-on-one above the break, Alexander-Walker sizes up Brunson, sidesteps and hits the long two over the contest Brunson is able to provide:

On both ends of the ball, Alexander-Walker is an extremely important player, and since Johnson’s declining interest in defense, Alexander-Walker is the team’s best two-way player — there is a huge amount riding on his shoulders on both ends of the floor, and he was brilliant this season and the season series. However, I worry he may not be able to replicate his regular season success against the Knicks in the postseason than he did in the three regular season games.

I’d be surprised if Brunson is guarding Alexander-Walker again given his success, I suspect Hart or Bridges may be used to guard him, with Brunson/Hart guarding CJ McCollum/Daniels, and Anunoby guarding Jalen Johnson. Whoever the Knicks elect to guard him, I think that’s immediately going to make Alexander-Walker’s life more difficult. Additionally, teams tend to take care of the ball more, and I worry for the Hawks and Alexander-Walker that if the Knicks limit their turnovers — or the Hawks are unable to create steals/turnovers as they did — that a vital supply of offense may be cut off.

Another concern would be that Alexander-Walker hit some really tough shots ,and while it’s entirely possible he could carry that into the postseason series, I would be hugely impressed if he can repeat 45% shooting from three on 11 attempts per game.

The offensive success of Alexander-Walker is crucial if the Hawks are going to have a chance to advance: he has to, essentially, average what he did in the three-game regular season series against the Knicks — that is a lot of pressure, and pressure for a player who this is his first postseason appearance with this much offensive responsibility. If Alexander-Walker has a difficult series, there’s no chance for the Hawks to win this series — it’s as simple as that.

The key matchups: Jalen Johnson

Now the leading figure for the Atlanta Hawks, this series marks the first postseason appearance for Jalen Johnson as such a figure with the team. However, he didn’t have a standout season-series against the Knicks in terms of his scoring, averaging 19.7 points per game on 45% shooting from the field, 45% from three on 3.7 attempts, 10 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. Good counting stats, and while the Hawks absolutely need Johnson to rack up similar assist numbers, they need an increase in his scoring output if the Hawks are to advance: he’s got to average closer to 25 points or above.

What Johnson did well in the season series was finish in the paint/at the rim, both in full court and halfcourt scenarios.

Using the screen from Daniels, Johnson drives into the lane, rises, and hits the runner in traffic:

As Johnson brings the ball up the floor, Daniels comes to set a screen and slips back inside; the confusion between Brunson and Anunoby allows Johnson to drive inside and finish at the rim with authority:

Above the break, Johnson sees options for screens from both Daniels and Alexander-Walker, and off of the Alexander-Walker screen, Johnson drives on Anunoby, steps through the lane and gets his defender off his feet for an easier basket deep in the lane:

In transition, Johnson receives the ball and immediately knows he can attack the backpedalling defense, on which he has a physical advantage, one which he uses to finish at the rim:

Again in transition, Johnson seeks out the mismatch in Brunson to attack, and scores at the rim plus the foul:

When Johnson receives the ball, he’s quick to immediately pounce into action, seeking the gap between the defense, absorbing contact, and finishes over Anunoby:

Johnson did a good job exploiting mismatches, of which he was able to find multiple during this season-series, and he does so on Hart here on the drive, and absorbs the additional contact to finish at the rim:

Working from the post, Johnson is able to step inside the paint and score in the lane over his mismatch:

Using the Daniels screen above the break, Johnson is able to drive down the center of the lane and dunk over Anunoby and Towns:

Just as Brunson and Towns excelled in the paint for the Knicks in their respective matchups, so too does Johnson, and the Hawks will absolutely need his ability to put pressure on the rim, finish in the halfcourt and transition, and what it opens for himself and his teammates.

On that note, we should look at how Johnson finds his teammates in this matchup. We’ve actually already looked at many Johnson assists already when looking at Alexander-Walker, both in the open court off of misses and in half-court scenarios. What interesting when looking at the footage was how much cutting/slipping action would happen and how Johnson would find those cutters/pick-and-roll slips.

On the sideline action with Zaccharie Risacher, Johnson finds Risacher slipping to the basket, and he finishes with the dunk:

After Daniels sets the screen for Johnson, he drifts towards the rim and with Johnson drawing the double, he does a great job finding Daniels for the finish at the rim:

This time, Daniels is on the weakside corner as Johnson and Okongwu run a slip screen on the strong-side. Daniels cuts, and as Johnson swings around he spots and finds Daniels for the basket at the rim:

Again on the weakside there’s an open space, this time it’s Asa Newell who cuts to the rim, and he’s found by Johnson for the finish:

As Johnson draws a second body on the drive, Alexander-Walker makes a cut off the ball, and Johnson delivers the pass for the assist as Alexander-Walker finishes at the rim:

This last clip isn’t necessarily a cut, but I just wanted to include it. Johnson is harassed on the perimeter, and he still find some way to drive inside and find Daniels with the shovel pass at the rim:

If Johnson is able to find an uptick in his made threes, it’d be a huge boost for the Hawks in this series and Johnson’s production. He shot very efficiently in this series when he did shoot but just didn’t hit many threes. Johnson’s offensive contribution will be heavy, even if he doesn’t lead the team in scoring. What he offers the Hawks in terms of his rebounding, his ability to put pressure on the rim on drives, and his ability to find his teammates either off of drives, cuts, or the extra body the Knicks throw at him asks, arguably, more of him than any other Hawk in this series.

This series would also be a great time for Johnson to re-engage defensively and harken back to his defense before his offensive emergence. He has to show better defensive effort, and he may be an important piece in the help defense on Towns behind Okongwu.

The key matchups: Onyeka Okongwu

While we’re on the subject of Okongwu, his role in this series is — while not at the forefront compared to Alexander-Walker and Johnson — immensely important.

Okongwu enjoyed a great regular season series, averaging 22 points per game on 51% shooting from the field, 47.8% from three on over seven attempts, 10 rebounds, three offensive rebounds, 1.3 steals, and a block per game. These averages are very high compared to his regular season stats, and if the Hawks are to make an upset happen in this spot, they’ll need Okongwu to produce similar numbers. So, how did he do it?

The three-point success is the most important aspect for Okongwu in this series — it opens up everything for him. Okongwu got a lot of looks at open threes, especially in trailing situations.

As Johnson brings up the ball, Okongwu follows his path, and when Johnson offloads the ball to Okongwu, he pulls up and hits the three above the break:

In transition, Daniels gets a head of steam to the rim, and when his drive is disrupted he turns and finds the trailing Okongwu for three:

In transition again, CJ McCollum drives and kicks back to Okongwu who hits another trailing three:

On a drive from Daniels, Okongwu is left all alone above the break, and despite the Knicks’ late scramble to contest Okongwu hits the three:

Okongwu may also be found in pick-and-pop scenarios, and while it’s the departed Trae Young delivering Okongwu the assist on a pick-and-pop three, this drive and assist could come from anyone (Johnson, Daniels, McCollum, or Alexander-Walker):

The matchup with Mitchell Robinson could be interesting for Okongwu on the offensive end, as Robinson may be more reluctant to chase Okongwu out to the three-point line, leading to an easier opportunity from three here:

Okongwu also found success inside the arc, often spinning his way to opportunities to either get to his hook shot, or finish at the rim.

On the find from Alexander-Walker, Okongwu fakes the three, drives inside, steps through the lane and finishes at the rim:

Okongwu heads into the lane off the ball, and is found on the entry pass deep in the lane before rising into his hook shot:

On the catch at the free throw line, Okongwu spins and flips up a shot which is made:

This next clip is a great play where Okongwu fakes the hand-off, drives, spins, and hits the hook shot inside the paint:

You can see the pattern; drive, spin, and finish at the rim:

This last clip may be especially pertinent in this series, and it’s related to offensive rebounding. Dyson Daniels misses an open corner three, but Okongwu is on hand to collect the offensive rebound and score:

What Okongwu gave the Hawks in the regular season series was hugely impressive for the Hawks, great production and great efficiency. While I’m unsure if Okongwu will replicate his 45% shooting from three on seven attempts per game, I think he’s certainly going to see the opportunities to do so. The Knicks will have to focus on Alexander-Walker, Johnson, and probably even CJ McCollum and Dyson Daniels before focusing on Okongwu — I think he’s the player the Knicks will probably live with having big offensive nights at the expense of allowing those nights from Johnson or Alexander-Walker (Dyson Daniels would be the other player in this bracket). However, as Okongwu showed, he can absolutely take advantage of open opportunities and could work himself into opportunities near the rim — that hook shot is one the Hawks need Okongwu to be hitting inside.

However, as desirable as it is for Okongwu to have those scoring performances, it’ll have to be all hands on deck on the defensive end. We’ve discussed at length already how much of a task he has guarding Towns, and the mammoth task he has to be the main player to limit the Knicks offensive rebounding — especially in the absence of Jock Landale — and that threat comes in both Towns and Mitchell Robinson (where Landale’s absence is really felt). Okongwu’s performance on both sides of the ball will be one of the determining factors in this series, and I feel that warrants him as a focus in key matchups as opposed to just an ‘x-factor.’

X-factors: Atlanta

This next section will look at x-factors in this series: players who have important roles to play in this series but perhaps less so than those already mentioned.

Dyson Daniels

Daniels’ main contribution will be on the defensive end, and he has a very difficult prospect in that regard — as we’ve looked at — with Jalen Brunson. Despite Brunson’s averages, Daniels did a good job contesting shots and preventing penetration as much as possible — at some point, the Hawks will hope that those tough shots Brunson has made in this season series will begin to rattle out. Daniels will also be crucial in creating extra possessions for the Hawks, especially in a postseason setting, with any steals he can produce.

Offensively, Daniels is likely to be the player the Knicks will try and hide their worst defender, or to simply leave him open from behind the arc. This will undoubtedly happen at some stage, and how Daniels fares either shooting the three or attacking the space afforded to him will be important.

The stats suggest that Daniels has turned a corner of sorts shooting the three, shooting 40% on 1.9 attempts in his last 13 games of the regular season. A low sample, but an enormous improvement from what had transpired before from behind the arc. Daniels hitting those open threes wouldn’t swing the series but would be an enormous help to the Hawks. It would also allow Daniels to do what he does best offensively: drive, spin, and either get to his floater or create for his teammates. Daniels cutting off the ball could be a good source of points on a few possessions.

Daniels averaged 11 points per game on 51% shooting from the field, 20% from three, 8.7 rebounds, over three offensive, rebounds, 6.7 assists, and two steals — these seem like very replicable stats across the board in this series from Daniels, with potential for improvement in scoring and three-point shooting (even if marginally).

Daniels being a player the Knicks can’t just leave wide open would be a big help in this series, and he is an x-factor in this series for all the reasons outlined above.

CJ McCollum

An in-season addition, McCollum only featured in one game in this series, scoring 17 points on 19 shots, shooting 37.5% from three, along with six assists. McCollum showed his quality in shot-making and clutch plays at various stages with the Hawks down the stretch. When it comes down to any close game in this series, the ball is very likely to be in his hands. McCollum has shown that this can be a good thing, but the reliance on McCollum in these situations is concerning, especially when considering that Brunson will be the Knicks’ counterpart handling the ball down the stretch.

Let’s call a stone a stone: McCollum has been good, and he’s fit in well, but there’s a gap in quality between McCollum and Brunson in both shot making, ball-handling, and clutch shot-making. It concerns me that the Hawks have to rely as much as they do on McCollum for offensive initiation — McCollum needs to have a really good series in this regard, making his closer shots, and his perimeter shots. A good series from McCollum wouldn’t define the series but would be one aspect that could help tip the scales.

The Atlanta bench, led by Jonathan Kuminga

One of the biggest concerns for me in this series is the Hawks’ bench production. As a note, there is less reliance in the playoffs on bench depth in terms of number of personnel who play; this makes those who do play extremely important. From the Hawks’ side of things, they’re already missing Jock Landale’s size — this is a big blow. Whether it’s Tony Bradley or Mo Gueye, there is a lot of pressure to attempt to help with the defensive rebounding. Both would play small roles offensively, but Gueye’s ability to run the floor, and perhaps make some cuts from the weakside could help for a couple of possessions.

Outside of the bigs, the playoffs are a venture into the unknown for Corey Kispert, while Gabe Vincent has some prior experience of the postseason — both will be needed in short bursts to hit the shots that they find themselves with. Neither Kispert or Vincent, nor Gueye or Bradley, are likely to provide big offensive numbers off the bench. This is where Jonathan Kuminga becomes an extremely important player for the Hawks.

Kuminga will, surely, be the sixth man coming off the bench and he absolutely has to be the one who leads the scoring effort for the bench. If Kuminga struggles to make an impact off the bench, the Hawks are unlikely to see a ton of bench points come their way. This reliance on Kuminga’s scoring production off the bench is enough to concern me in a playoff series. Yes, Kuminga can come in and contribute to the scoring, but he’s just as likely to produce a dud off the bench and take bad shots in the process; this is something the Hawks cannot afford. It’s a worry that, in the face of this unpredictability, the Hawks are so reliant on those minutes Kuminga plays to score efficiently.

X-factors: New York

Mitchell Robinson

We won’t’ spend long here as much has been said about Mitchell already. Robinson’s biggest contribution to this series will be his offensive rebounding. It feels like a certainty that he’s going to have a big impact in this series and he’s going to provide the Hawks with a lot of headaches on the offensive glass. The question is just how many headaches is he going to give the Hawks?

Possessions become so much more valuable in the playoffs, and offensive rebounds can suck the life out of the opposing team — Robinson can provide so much life to the Knicks through these offensive rebounds. With Okongwu likely to be tied up with Towns, which means the Hawks are going to have to help Okongwu when it comes to fighting for rebounds. Such is the force of Robinson, even if Towns is off the floor and Okongwu is still on and guarding Robinson, help would still be required.

Limiting Robinson and the Knicks’ offensive rebounding is absolutely key to the Hawks having any chance to win this series.

Mikal Bridges

Mikal Bridges is an odd case. He has been the player that the Hawks would assign Trae Young to guard, and the Knicks never looked to exploit this obviously exploitable matchup. Bridges can be such a bystander offensively for the Knicks, and I wonder how the Knicks will deploy him offensively in this series. When Bridges scores 20 or more points, the Knicks are 8-8, so if he does have a good night offensively it doesn’t necessarily mean the Knicks are more likely to win, but with Towns and Brunson likely to excel in this series it certainly won’t help the Hawks to have that consistent third scorer.

Getting Bridges going offensively would certainly help them in the series but is not required for the Knicks to advance. To add, Bridges averaged just 26% shooting the three in the season series, a far shout from his season average of 37%. It speaks to what we discussed earlier that the Knicks are more than likely to shoot better from three in the postseason against the Hawks than they did in the regular season series.

Defensively, I expect Bridges to have an impact in this series, and I expect that the Knicks will look to see how he fares defensively with Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

OG Anunoby

Anunoby has a tough task defensively with Jalen Johnson, who he struggled to contain on drives at times during the season series. Anunoby averaged 18.7 points per game against the Hawks this season, and his scoring output would absolutely help the Knicks, especially if Bridges isn’t hitting his shots. Make no mistake though, Anunoby’s priority will be his defensive duties, arguably the Knicks’ strongest defender and will be kept very busy between Johnson, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him switched onto Alexander-Walker at times, too.

In closing: choosing a winner

I’m going to borrow somewhat from my contribution to the Peachtree Hoops’ roundtable when asking this question. When looking at all these factors, when looking at the results of the regular season matchup and what swung the season series, I ask this question: What is likely to carry over to the playoffs? When I look at this from both sides, I just see so much more from the Knicks’ side which is more likely to carry over.

Let me try lay it out from both sides what I think is/isn’t likely to carry over — and what would concern me in general — starting with the Hawks.

I like the Hawks’ ability to limit their turnovers to translate to the playoffs, but I worry about their ability to create turnovers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. This may limit the Hawks’ ability to get out in transition off of turnovers, though, they can still do this off of missed shots. Jalen Johnson is excellent at finding players in these scenarios, as is Nickeil Alexander-Walker in bursting ahead to provide an option for Johnson, or Daniels, too.

I’m not concerned about Johnson’s ability to score inside nor his ability to draw the defense and make the right pass to his cutting teammates. I’m more concerned about Alexander-Walker sustaining his regular-season average of 28 points per game and 45% from three on 11 attempts. The Knicks could certainly do a much better job defending and guarding Alexander-Walker, and I think they’ll go in a different direction than Brunson in a playoff series. If Alexander-Walker is limited in this series, the Hawks’ chance to win is greatly diminished.

I think Okongwu is going to see some of those open looks that we looked at from three, but I’m not sure if he’s going to shoot nearly 48% from three in this series. In short, there’s a number of Hawks who averaged 45% or more from three in the regular season series that I’m not sure will carry over.

The Hawks’ reliance on McCollum as an initiator of clutch offense down the stretch, and general reliance on Jonathan Kuminga to efficiently score as the sixth man concerns me, and while the Knicks don’t have a super bench themselves, Josh Hart is likely to be a much more effective bench player than anyone else in this series. If Dyson Daniels has regained a touch, of sorts, from three it would be very helpful, but this is not something that can be confidently relied on. If Daniels becomes a non-factor on offense, that’s another concern for the Hawks.

Elsewhere, the Hawks don’t have homecourt advantage in this spot and while no members of the team that defeated the Knicks in 2021 are with the team anymore, the Knicks’ crowd has absolutely not forgotten that loss and this series will be personal for them, even now that Young is gone. The atmosphere at Madison Square Garden will be electric, and this Hawks group has no playoff experience together; how much that matters or doesn’t matter’ will be a huge test for this squad.

“We can’t let the crowd dictate the game too much for us,” said Okongwu of the ‘MSG’ crowd.

From the Knicks’ side, Towns’ superiority in the regular season matchup is absolutely something that can be replicated in the playoffs — there is no good counter for his combination of size, strength (despite his tendency to fall over a lot), speed, and shooting ability. If he gets into foul trouble, the Hawks may have a window in the game, but relying on this to happen four times in the series may not be realistic. So, I think his production is extremely likely to carry over.

The same I think applies to Brunson. While he could miss some of those contested shots he hit over Dyson Daniels, his ability to get by his man and get into the lane and get to his floater or pull-up is almost unstoppable — the Hawks had no answer for it.

And the fact Brunson can penetrate so easily without the aid of a screen is really concerning — a lot of pressure on Daniels to stay in front, and Brunson is able to create space with spins and step-backs. If anything, Brunson could eclipse what he averaged in regular season — his three-point shooting is better than his displays against the Hawks this season, and that would be reason to worry if those threes begin to fall. The same could be said of the Knicks as a whole, who are likely to shoot higher than 29.7% from three, and that’s another aspect to be concerned with.

Then, there’s the offensive rebounding. The Hawks have no good answer for this, either, and I don’t know how the Hawks keep Towns and Robinson off the offensive glass. Those second chance points were something the Knicks were wasteful with in the regular season; the Hawks did very well at times to defend the second action — can that carry through over a seven-game series? I’m not sure, I think the Knicks are likely to perform better than they did in the regular season series against Atlanta.

In 2021, the Knicks swept the regular-season series 3-0 and most of the national media chose the Knicks to advance. Upon looking at the season-series in more detail, I felt confident that the Hawks could absolutely win that series because I was sure several aspects from the regular season would not repeat in the postseason. This time, however, I think there’s too much to overlook when looking at this matchup, and I think most of it points to New York advancing.

The Hawks themselves believe they can advance against any side, so long as they play to their strengths

“We believe we can go toe-to-toe with anybody in the NBA when we play at our best,” said Onyeka Okongwu. “It showed last week, and we’re ready for another test now.”

“We’ll grow to be favorites at some point,” added CJ McCollum. “Whether that’s this playoffs or in years to come.”

It’s easy to say the first two games of this series ‘shouldn’t count’ given the roster differences, but that’s not how the Hawks entirely feel about it.

“I think both teams will watch, as part of your preparation, try to find things that happened in that games, some of them less applicable than others,” said Quin Snyder. “As much as anything, we have tremendous respect for their team and what they’ve done in the course of the season. For us, we’re much a different team the third time we played them than previously, but we can’t discount the other games because we’ve got a few guys on that team too.”

“They’re a really sound team, I think that’s where they hang their hat” added Nickeil Alexander-Walker when asked what they can take from the regular season series. “Everyone plays to their strengths. They’ve been together for so long, that ties in with their chemistry, building that rapport, the physicality they play with. They have guys who take pride in changing the game. It’s imperative that they we pay attention to the details of the series. They got their stars, they got their guys who are gritty and play in the mud, so to speak. We’re not the team that’s feeding into the game they want to play. In the two games we played them, both times, especially at State Farm — and that one time they had guys out at Madison Square Garden — so it’s harder to compare…”

The series begins in New York on Saturday, and no matter what happens, in a few weeks the series will be over. When the dust settles, whatever the result is — whether the Hawks are eliminated or advance — the pertinent question remains: should they have allowed themselves to fall to the six-seed and into this situation in the first place?

If the Hawks fall to the Knicks, that decision will be obviously questioned. If the Hawks win, they’re likely to face the Celtics in the second round — the Eastern Conference favorites — and that will be questioned, too, when the Hawks could have potentially been facing a similarly untested Detroit Pistons, against whom you have to wonder if the Hawks may fancy their chances more against than the Celtics? No matter the outcome of this series, it will all lead back to their decision when facing the Miami Heat on the final day of the 2025-26 regular season.

Many, many questions linger but, very soon, the Atlanta Hawks will begin to discover the answers as they make their return to the NBA Playoffs.

Until next time.

The 2026 NBA Playoffs are finally set, and they won’t include the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors won their first game in the play-in tournament, but they failed in their bid to grab the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference on Friday night in a defeat to the Phoenix Suns. Golden State now has to pray for lottery luck after finishing 37-45 overall. The organization enters the lottery in 11th place with a 9.4 percent chance at a top-4 pick and a two percent chance at the No. 1 pick.

The Warriors’ loss forces a lot of uncomfortable questions on the franchise. Will Steve Kerr be the coach next season? Can they actually build a good team around Stephen Curry at age-38? Every player on the roster will have to be evaluated, and you can bet the Warriors will at least be mentioned as a possible trade suitor for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

As some things about the Warriors may start to change, at least Golden State has a constant in Draymond Green. The play-in tournament showed everything Green has always been made of: he locked down Kawhi Leonard in a virtuoso defensive performance in game one, then crashed out and a caused a ruckus at the end of game two with an unhinged on-court action and animated exit after an ejection.

With about a minute left in the game and the Suns’ win already decided, Green sprinted at Devin Booker and punched him in the chest really hard for no reason. Watch the play here:

First of all, what the hell? Secondarily, WHY?

Green fouled out on this play, but he kept barking at Booker from the bench. Eventually, referee Scott Foster had enough and ejected both players. Draymond definitely deserved his ejection. Did Booker?

Draymond is literally a professional wrestler who moonlights on the side as one of the greatest defensive geniuses of al-time. This is incredible stuff.

This tweet put it perfectly:

The Warriors’ season is over. Things are about to change, but Draymond will always be Draymond.