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Games are going off all day long! Even with a small slate in front of us, there's still plenty of value in the MLB player props market.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picksfor Thursday, Aug. 20, including why I expect Pete Alonso to go nuclear again.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Taylor Trammell	Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, RBI	-148
Pete Alonso	Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI	-109
Grant Holmes	Over 2.5 Earned Runs	+118

Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 hits, runs, RBI (-148)

HALF. HALF a hit, run, and/or RBI. HALF!!!

Right out the gate, you can get Houston Astros outfielder Taylor Trammell to record a hit at a great price, but for HALF an HRR, this is a great price to pay.

Trammell enters Thursday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset. Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .500 SLG and 15% walk rate while generating a 51.6% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate. Over the last 10 days, the Astros' outfielder has been racking up a bunch of hard-hit outs, with one triple sprinkled in there.

If Trammell makes contact against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, he should be due for at least a base hit. Rodriguez has allowed left-handed hitters to produce a 49.1% hard-hit rate, 33% ground-ball rate, and 1.76 HR/9. Those lefties also own a .310 xBA, .506 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA against him.

Take this down to -150, or pivot to just a hit.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, ABTV

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI (-109)

We're going right back to Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso after he cashed for us last night while nearly providing another home run late in the game. This evening against New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole he's in another great spot with an even better price tag.

So far this season, when rated elite on Batters-Box, Alonso has gone Over this prop 68.18% of the time, which comes from a 22-game sample size. Alonso also covers over 85% of Cole's arsenal, which is huge. On top of that, the big fella owns a 1.000 SLG and .500 ISO while producing a 67.7% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate over his last 10 games.

Cole, on the other hand, comes with some concerning underlying metrics against right-handed hitters that Alonso should be able to exploit. Over the last 30 right-handed hitters he's faced, Cole is allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 36.4% ground-ball rate, while those hitters have produced a .445 xBA and .604 xSLG.

Even with Alonso going yard yesterday, the price for him to go over 1.5 HRR is simply too good to pass up this evening. Take this down to -120.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, MASN

Grant Holmes Over 2.5 earned runs (+118)

Despite the Chicago White Sox's tough week at Wrigley, their bats have been red-hot. Over their last 12 games, the team's lineup sports a 131 wRC+, .361 wOBA, and .818 OPS. This afternoon White Sox enter with the third-highest-rated offense, according to Batters-Box, with two elite-rated hitters and four with strong ratings.

The Atlanta Braves send right-hander Grant Holmes to the mound, who owns the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate. On top of that, he get poorly rated matchup ISO, hard-hit, and strikeout rates. The Braves' hurler owns a 5.04 xERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing a 43.59% hard-hit rate and 11.54% barrel rate over his last five starts. With the White Sox's lineup featuring seven left-handed hitters, combined with Holmes' 4.55 xERA against lefties, this matchup screams early runs for Chicago.

Take this down to +110 at the most, or pivot to White Sox first-five team total over 2.5.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn

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The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up the Cincinnati part of their road trip Thursday afternoon as they take on the Reds at Great American Ball Park. Michael McGreevy will start the game for the Cardinals while the Reds will turn to RHP Brady Singer. First pitch is scheduled for 11:40am central time and the game broadcast will be available through Cardinals.tv.

1928
White Sox rookie Art “The Great” Shires made a sensational debut, with four hits (including a triple) against the Red Sox in a 6-4 win. He’s one of only 11 players to ever get four or more hits in his first big-league game.

“The Great” nickname, by the way, was self-assigned!

1929
The White Sox honored pitcher Red Faber with a Day at Comiskey Park. The Hall-of-Famer won 254 games (all with the Sox), and had four seasons of 20 or more wins.

On this day, Faber threw 11 innings in a 5-4 loss to the Yankees. Before the game, he was given a check for $2,700, a Majestic radio, a diamond ring and several baskets of flowers.

1948
The White Sox played before the largest regular-season crowd in franchise history, on a Friday night in Cleveland. An amazing 78,382 were on hand to see the Tribe edge the Sox, 1-0, at Cleveland Stadium. The winning pitcher that night was none other than Satchel Paige, who only allowed the Sox three hits; it was his second shutout against the White Sox in the space of a week.

1957
Utilizing a new, “slow” pitching motion, Bob Keegan tossed the first night no-hitter in White Sox history, as he blanked Washington, 6-0, at Comiskey Park. It was the nightcap of a doubleheader, which the White Sox split. Keegan walked two Senators in the game, and only faced 28 men in a game that lasted just 1:55.

Only one ball was really hard-hit, and that came in the first inning when outfielder Larry Doby made a backhand catch of a drive by Herb Plews. Keeganalso drove in the last run of the night for the Sox, with an RBI single.

At 37, he became the oldest South Side pitcher to ever throw a no-hitter. Keegan would go 10-8 in a season that saw the Sox win 90 games and finish in second place. 

1964
Did you know that the White Sox played a key role in the downfall of the Yankees dynasty … thanks to a harmonica?

After the White Sox swept New York in a four-game set at Comiskey Park, the final win moving Chicago into first place by a half-game over Baltimore, Phil Linz started playing his harmonica on the team bus back to O’Hare Airport. In what became known as “The Harmonica Incident,” manager Yogi Berra told him to stop, as it made light of his team’s recent drubbing.

In Linz’s own words: “iI had this harmonica in my pocket for two days. We had Mickey Mantle, [Roger] Maris, [Joe] Pepitone, Tommy Tresh, we all kind of sat in one area, kidding around with each other. We were on the bus, waiting to go to Boston and I started thinking about ‘Mary Had a Little Lamb.’ It was my second day [learning to play] and I wasn’t too good. Yogi yelled back, “Shove that harmonica …,” which I didn’t know at the time. I knew he said something. I turned to Mickey and said, ‘What did he say?’ And Mickey said, ‘He said play it LOUDER.’ Yogi came back and we had a big argument, and the next day I apologized to him. And he fined me $250. I said ‘That’s fair,’ and he said, ‘I’ve got to do this for the writers.’ He never held that against me, ever. He never brought it up again.”

As Berra anticipated, The Incident became national news, and Linz got an endorsement contract with harmonica maker Hohner that well offset his fine. The Yankees responded to the conflict, winning 30 of 41 games to capture another pennant; the White Sox infamously finished the season 10-1 and won their final nine games, but couldn’t catch New York despite a 98-64 record.

However, The Harmonica Incident has been regarded as the tipping point that ended New York’s 17-year run of 14 pennants and 10 World Series titles. The 1965 Yankees would finish with their first losing season in 40 years and the 1966 team finished in last place.

For the White Sox, the first-place Orioles came to town next, and took three of four to knock Chicago out of first. Still, the White Sox would not fall farther than four games back for the rest of the season.

1977
The move didn’t make much of a difference for the fading South Side Hit Men, but would have interesting ramifications in the next season: Shortstop Don Kessinger was acquired from the Cardinals for minor league pitcher Steve Staniland.

Kessinger’s effectiveness as a major-leaguer was long over, but his veteran leadership saw owner Bill Veeck selected Kessinger as player-manager after the dismissal of Larry Doby as manager during the 1978 season. Kessinger remains the last player-manager ever in the American League, and most recent behind Pete Rose in all of baseball.

1989
After White Sox star Harold Baines was traded to Texas on July 29, the team retired his uniform number No. 3 when the Rangers returned to Chicago. He was only the third active player to have his uniform number retired by a club, joining Frank Robinson and Phil Niekro.

Knowing Baines’ reluctance to step into the spotlight, the White Sox kept the ceremony a secret. Jerry Reinsdorf felt the honor wasn’t announced in advance “because I felt Harold wouldn’t show up. He doesn’t like attention like that. He might have tried to talk us out of it.”

Baines was overwhelmed but understated: “As you know, I’m a man of few words. This is very gratifying. I had a great time in Chicago and made a lot of friends. Thank you very much.”

The White Sox gifted Harold a watch and some golf clubs, as well as a necklace for his wife, Marla.

The future Hall-of-Famer didn’t play in the 7-1 Texas victory, due to hamstring tightness. He was on-deck for a token pinch-hitting appearance when the Rangers were retired in the top of the ninth.

2007
After sitting idle in the bullpen for eight days, Bobby Jenks had his MLB record-tying 41 consecutive batters retired streak snapped, as Joey Gathright dribbled a single through third base leading off the ninth inning of a 4-3 White Sox win.

Brian Hendry is thrilled to be back on the mound again. 

The 26-year-old righthanded pitcher who was taken by the New York Yankees in the 10th round of the 2023 MLB Draft missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

But he has returned this season and, at three levels, he is a combined 1-0 with two holds, one save and a 3.00 earned-run average in 14 appearances. 

“Coming off Tommy John to end the 2024 season, it was a long 2025 rehab,” Hendry said. “Coming into 2026, I had to make sure my body was in a good spot. I’m here now, feeling great, so I’m really excited to be competing again. It’s been a while.”

This was the second time Hendry underwent Tommy John surgery. The first came in his junior year at St. John’s University in 2022. He went 3-3 with a 6.18 ERA in 20 appearances for the Red Storm (2019-22) with 46 strikeouts in 58.0 innings. Then, he went to Oklahoma State University for his final year of eligibility in 2023 and was 2-1 with a 6.63 ERA in 16 games with 51 strikeouts in 36.2 innings.

After being drafted by the Yankees, Hendry spent his first professional season in 2024 with High-A Hudson Valley. He started seven games for the Renegades and was 1-0 with a 0.48 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. 

However, he started to have arm issues again. 

“We tried to go the rehab route early on; you don’t want to have to get a second surgery unless it’s deemed necessary,” Hendry said. “So we tried to rehab it and it would have days it was working, days it was not. I did get back to game action from that rehab, which was great. But I got maybe three or four starts in and that same pain came back. Got even worse than it was prior. Imaging revealed it was something we had to do something about at that point.”

Having to undergo a second Tommy John surgery was frustrating. Hendry said he felt sorry for himself for about a week, then accepted it.

Talk to players who go through that rehab process and they say it is very long, difficult and lonely.

“It comes in waves,” Hendry said. “Up until I started throwing, which was about 26 weeks, it’s really slow. Doing the progression of everything I have to do physical therapy-wise and getting my body moving again. What I love doing is throwing and when I can’t do that, it’s tough. After that 26th week, there was a bit of light at the end of the tunnel that I started seeing. That helps continue to press forward. But it’s long. There’s no easy way to put it. You’ve just got to take it day by day. When you start looking a year down the road, it’s too far out. You really just have to be where your feet are at and try to get better that day, knowing in the long run it’s going to add up to something you want.”

As he came back this season, Hendry said he was a little more conservative this time than he was after his first surgery.

“Making sure I took the right steps and coming back healthy,” he said. “I took it a little slower but in a way to make sure I’m coming back good.”

On June 11, he began his rehab assignment, pitching a combined nine games with the Florida Complex League Yankees and Single-A Tampa Tarpons. Then, he was assigned to the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders on July 21. That came as a pleasant surprise. 

“I wasn’t looking out in advance planning where I was going to be,” Hendry said. “I just tried to attack each day at whatever level I was at, whatever team I was facing. Put my best foot forward. I obviously was ecstatic when I came up here, but I wasn’t really planning out too far in advance where I was going to be. I was just trying to attack the guys in front of me and make sure I was in a good spot.”

He has made five relief appearances with the RailRiders and has no record and one hold. He has allowed five runs and six hits with three walks and six strikeouts in 4.1 innings. 

Besides working on his pitches, Hendry also is working on his endurance so he can build up his arm and his body to pitch on consecutive days. 

“I was a starter in the past, so going to a relief role now, there’s adjustments my body has to make compared to having a five-day or six-day routine,” Hendry said. “That’s the biggest thing I’m working on really: the bounce-back of my arm to be able to throw back-to-back days eventually. I’m working on different pitches as well, see what fits my arsenal. The fastball, the slider, the changeup, those are kind of staples. I had a curveball in the past, I’m toying with that, trying to get that to where that used to be. Toying maybe with a cutter, a sinker. As hitters give me information, I’ll make those adjustments.”

Growing up in Medford, New Jersey, about 25 miles from Philadelphia, Hendry was a big Phillies fan. 

“It’s like South Jersey people are Philly-represent and North Jersey people are New York-represent,” he said. “I’ve always had an admiration for New York sports. It’s a big market, a great fan base. But where I’m at, it’s Eagles, Phillies, Flyers, Philadelphia Union, the whole lot.”

He was 10 years old when the Yankees beat the Phillies in six games in the 2009 World Series. 

“I do remember 2009 pretty well. I would have been rooting for the Phillies,” Hendry said. “I think both franchises are awesome. The Yankees, I’m very happy to be with them.”

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The Chicago White Sox are -107 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds for today's makeup game against the Atlanta Braves, with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET at Rate Field. 

With Grant Holmes struggling and Chicago raking, my Braves vs. White Sox predictions are backing the hosts to grab a victory today. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20. 

Who will win Braves vs White Sox today: White Sox moneyline (-107)

The Atlanta Braves send Grant Holmes to the hill this afternoon, and he's been in poor form. The right-hander owns a 6.02 xERA over his last two appearances while allowing a 43.6% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate over the last month.

He has his hands full against a Chicago White Sox lineup carrying a 135 wRC+ over its previous seven games.

Anthony Kay is not lights-out, but he is holding his own. The left-hander owns a 3.87 FIP across his last five starts while allowing 0.96 HR/9.

He faces an Atlanta lineup with a 96 wRC+ vs. southpaws and a 41 wRC+ over the last week.

Chicago has the clear edge. Play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Braves haven't performed well on the road this season, collecting a 90 wRC+. At home, that number jumps up to 107.

Braves vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)

With Atlanta practically invisible offensively, the Under is the better play.

I expect Chicago to score runs. The White Sox are thriving at the dish, and the Braves’ bullpen profile is concerning once Holmes exits. Atlanta’s relief corps owns a 5.67 FIP across the last week.

However, Kay should be able to limit the damage against the coldest lineup in baseball at the moment, and the White Sox’s relief corps is solid. Chicago’s pen has a 3.73 xERA across its last 42 frames while surrendering just 0.86 HR/9.

Chicago’s staff should keep Atlanta at bay, while the White Sox score a handful themselves.

Play this pick to -120. 

Braves vs White Sox home run prediction: Miguel Vargas (+350)

Miguel Vargas has been a home run machine this season for the Sox, and he's in great power form.

Vargas has clubbed three bombs in his last six contests, posting a .414 ISO during that span. The slugger also has a 54.2% hard-hit rate and 20.8% barrel rate over the last week. 

Holmes has given up 1.42 HR/9 across the last month, and the Braves' pen is extremely vulnerable to the long ball right now as well. They've allowed 1.80 HR/9 in their last 45 innings of work.

Vargas has multiple paths to leave the yard today. Play to +200. 

Braves vs White Sox weather

Weather at Rate Field looks excellent this afternoon, with clear skies, temperatures around 74–75°F, and rain chances at 0% throughout the game window. Winds sit around 7–8 mph before easing slightly later.

Braves vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Braves +100 | White Sox -107
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (+163) | White Sox +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-103)

Braves vs White Sox trend

The White Sox have hit the moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+15.35 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. White Sox.

How to watch Braves vs White Sox and game info

Braves vs White Sox latest injuries

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It's a getaway slate today, but home run props are still popping.

Alec Burleson has had Brady Singer's number, and Great American Ball Park is the best setting on the board, while right-handed bats get a boost vs. Robert Gasser, and Julio Rodriguez is answering the call.

Plus, Cam Smith is the bat that stands out vs. the gift of Grayson Rodriguez.

These are my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 20.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Alec Burleson	+325
Julio Rodriguez	+442
Cam Smith	+575
💲Today's HR parlay	+13440

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+325)

The big lefty bat has a plus-plus matchup today in the early game, and the price is still on the good side of three dollars.

Alec Burleson has taken Brady Singer deep twice in nine career plate appearances, and lefties have hit Singer hard this year. Left-handed hitters are batting .304 against Singer with 18 homers, compared to just six allowed to right-handed batters.

With the small slate today, it’s also a good time to pivot to the best HR setting on the board. Great American Ball Park is the best HR park in MLB and plays 17% better than the average park in terms of HR factors. The Reds’ bullpen also has the sixth-worst ERA in August, so the HR potential remains after Singer hits the showers.

Burleson has a great matchup and is 45 points above the fair price. He’s also swinging a great stick, with six homers and a 1.102 OPS in August.

• Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Cardinals.TV

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+442)

I have a need today for a right-handed bat against Milwaukee starter Robert Gasser, and Julio Rodríguez at +400 or better fits that need.

Gasser is coming off a career-high 102 pitches but averages 87 pitches per start, and he’s already at 100 innings this year after throwing just 90 innings combined in 2024 and 2025. After Shane Bieber, Gasser has the highest HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today.

Right-handed hitters are batting .290 against Gasser this year and account for 85% of the homers he’s allowed. That’s where J-Rod comes in. He leads the team in xwOBA this month, has gone deep three times, and leads all Seattle batters in WAR this month despite a negative defensive rating.

All the right-handed bats, including Taylor Ward and Randy Arozarena, are projecting +EV today.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Cam Smith (+575)

Grayson Rodriguez is always a great pitcher fade. He ranks in the bottom 50 among MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate, but those numbers could be even worse considering he’s been a little lucky.

Only three other starters have a worse HardHit% than G-Rod’s 48.6%, while his 35% ground-ball rate is also one of the worst in baseball.

Rodriguez is a 7.00 ERA pitcher who gets barreled and gives up plenty of fly balls. Lefties have hit him at a better rate, but right-handed hitters have done just as much damage when it comes to home runs.

Cam Smith at +575 stands out as the best play on the Houston side. He’s been the team’s best hitter this month, pacing the Astros in homers (4), slugging (.600) and wOBA (.427), while ranking second in HardHit% behind Yordan Alvarez.

Most bats in this Houston lineup are good bets at +475 or better.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, SCHN

Today’s HR combo

Alec Burleson	Trade Now +13440
Julio Rodriguez
Cam Smith

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The Dodgers just completed their third stretch this season playing 13 days in a row, going 8-5 in a stretch that was particularly taxing on a pitching staff in flux.

Getting Blake Snell back was a huge boon, and he pitched six innings and allowed just one run in each of hisfirst two starts back, totaling 15 strikeouts and looking very much like one of the starting pitchers the Dodgers will count on in October.

Snell’s return gave the Dodgers a true six-man rotation again, though that only lasted five days, until Justin Wrobleski got the rest that was expected when he was placed on the injured list Sunday with left forearm inflammation. But for those five days the Dodgers only had seven relievers on the active roster, which made for a particularly stressful time for the bullpen.

Landon Knack was called up for one day to eat innings, and he got the final eight outs last Wednesday against the Kansas City Royals in earning a save. Jonathan Hernández, who was designated for assignment on the first day of this 13-day stretch, became a free agent and signed a new deal with the Dodgers, and provided his own gift to the bullpen on Saturday, soaking up the final three innings of a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

The other relievers needed the rest. Edwin Díaz and Tanner Scott each pitched five times in an eight-day stretch, as did Evan Phillips in a span that started just before the 13 game days in a row. Alex Vesia and Jack Dreyer each pitched four times in six days. All five of those relievers pitched three times in four days during the 13-day stretch, Vesia doing so twice and Dreyer doing so three times if we count overlapping stretches.

“That’s the hard part, that a lot of people don’t have the information on availability and workload, and redlining guys, trying to keep guys healthy. I don’t have everyone available every single night, and what’s the cost of that night versus the next two or three games and looking also at the rest of the season,” manager Dave Roberts said last Friday. “Those things I gotta think through, and when you peel that layer back, then your options get a little bit smaller. Then you’re talking about lanes and what’s the best for a particular pitcher. All those things matter.”

In all, 17 different pitchers were used over the past 13 days. Vesia and Dreyer each pitched seven times in the 13 days, including three times in the last four days. Scott also pitched seven times in 13 days, including a season-high 27 pitches in a four-out save on Tuesday in Colorado followed by another save with a perfect 10th inning on Wednesday.

Seth Halvorsen was up for two days and impressed, pitching a scoreless 10th inning to earn the win on August 11, only to be optioned the next day in favor of a fresh arm. Same for Knack, who was optioned the day after his eight-out save. Much like Hernández, who was dispatched and then returned, Kyle Hurt was optioned on August 10 and returned six days later. Hernández got dispatched a second time during this 13-day stretch on Wednesday, when Brock Stewart returned from the injured list.

Charlie Barnes was not on the 40-man roster to start this 13-day stretch and he’s not on the 40-man roster now. But he was active for one game during the 13-day stretch, called up on August 10 only to be optioned the next day. It was the fourth time Barnes has been called up to the Dodgers this season, and the third time he’s been sent outright to the minors.

Emmet Sheehan was called up Tuesday but did not pitch in the last two days while active.

Even with the turnover, Dodgers pitching for the most part was pretty good during the 13-day stretch, going 8-5 with a collective 3.35 ERA.

Díaz is the exception, as he was terrible after returning from elbow surgery. He allowed nine runs in five innings during his six six games over the last 13 days, and blew three saves. The Dodgers were working on his mechanics to try to salvage what has otherwise been a lost season, but even that was derailed on Tuesday when he landed back on the injured list with neck inflammation.

Now the pitching staff can rest not only on Thursday, but the Dodgers have another off day on Monday as well, plus the following Monday, August 31.

Tyler Glasnow is also expected back off the injured list next week, adding another potentially stabilizing force to the pitching staff.

The Dodgers won’t play 13 days in a row the rest of the season, though they do follow up playing the first nine days of September with a 10-day stretch, making for 19 games in 20 days to open the regular season’s final month. But active rosters expand to 28 players and 14 pitchers on September 1, so they will have one more arrow in the quiver at their disposal.

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There's no shortage of MLB picks on a truncated Thursday slate!

Our MLB expert picks are targeting a couple of totals tonight. See why the Yankees and Orioles will struggle to score on August 20.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: SF/CLE u7.5	-108
Jon Metler: ATL ML	-108
Dustin Saracini: TOR ML	+145
Joe Osborne: NYY/BAL u7.5	-104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Giants vs Guardians Under 7.5

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

There's still room for this fall from 52 cents, as some books are already as short as 55 cents. It’s a perfect getaway spot in an interleague afternoon game between two teams that combined for just one run yesterday.

The Giants have the tougher task with Gavin Williams on the mound, and San Francisco has scored just two runs in the series. The Giants have also scored one or fewer runs in five of their last 10 games and now head to Boston tonight after the game.

Cleveland’s offense has been shut out in three of its last six and has to travel to altitude tonight to open a series against the Rockies that they need to sweep. Landen Roupp isn’t a top-end pitcher, but he has handled sub-.500 teams well, with the Under not losing in his last seven starts against losing teams.

There is a chance this moves to a flat 7 today if the afternoon lineups are weak.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCSBA, CleGuardians.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves are trading at 52 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 57-cent favorite, giving us a sizable edge at the current price.

The White Sox are expected to stack seven left-handed bats against righty Grant Holmes, but many of those hitters have long swings geared toward pull-side power. Holmes has an ideal counter, as he is comfortable attacking lefties with his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone to change their eye level before going to his best pitch, a sharp slider down and in, to finish the at-bat.

If Holmes can execute those two pitches, he should be able to generate plenty of swings and misses, allowing him to keep the White Sox offense in check.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BravesVision, CHSN

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 41¢ (+145) at Polymarket

This is a good spot to take a shot. The Toronto Blue Jays have all the momentum after coming just a run short of completing a seemingly insurmountable comeback following a couple of mind-numbing errors from Jesus Sanchez in left field.

This type of resiliency should carry over against Tampa Bay Rays' Ian Seymour, who the Jays own a .325 average and .439 xSLG against across 40 at-bats.

On the other side is Shane Bieber, who's rocking a much more respectable 3.63 ERA in August after two strong starts against the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. With the Rays owning just a .290 xwOBA over 52 plate appearances against the right-hander, I'm riding the Jays to win their seventh straight series.

I'd play this up to 45 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rays.TV, SN

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Yankees vs Orioles Under 7.5

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

Under 7.5 runs is the play in Baltimore, where Gerrit Cole should lead another strong Yankees pitching performance.

Cole has allowed only four earned runs across his last four starts, while nine of his last 10 starts have gone Under. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA over the past two weeks.

New York’s offense has been awful during that same stretch, ranking 25th in OPS with MLB’s highest strikeout rate. That sets up well for Kyle Bradish, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

We could also get a boost from 11.4 mph winds blowing in at Camden Yards.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Prime Video, MASN

More MLB best bets for today

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We’re now in the top ten of the mid-season 2025 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list. Previously we had PuRPs 30-26, 25-21, 20-16 and 15-11. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 29 qualifying ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.

For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2026 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.

10. Wilder Dalis (586 points, 29 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 24 — High Ballot 4; Mode Ballot 11

How did he enter the organization?

2023 International Free Agent, Venezuela

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Dalis had an impressive stateside debut last year and has hit well again this year. The 20-year-old Venezuelan switch-hitting third baseman and shortstop was signed as an older 16-year-old in May 2023 (most of the highly touted prospects sign in January) to a $70k bonus. Dalis went straight to the Dominican Summer League and though he struggled in 2023 there (69 wRC+), he was much improved when he repeated the DSL in 2024 (144 wRC+, 21 SB, more walks than strikeouts).

Dalis was a key player for a very good Rockies ACL team in 2025. In 219 plate appearances, Dalis hit .352/.440/.525 with three homers, five triples, and 12 doubles along with 10 steals while walking in 13% of PA — good for a 149 wRC+ and a top 10 ranking in many offensive categories. He was even named the organizational player of the month for July. After the ACL season ended, Dalis got a late-July promotion to full-season ball with Low-A Fresno. In 31 games at the level, Dalis hit .241/.333/.379 (100 wRC+) in 137 plate appearances, including three homers and seven doubles. In the field, Dalis played mostly third base for the Complex team but saw nearly half of his action in Fresno at shortstop with some second base sprinkled in. He committed 10 errors in 58 games at third, four in 22 games at shortstop, and another two in six games at second base.

This year, Dalis went back to Fresno, where he was about two years younger than league average. It wasn’t a smooth start for him there, as he hit .194 in 87 April plate appearances. The Rockies removed Dalis from the roster in early May (likely an injury), sending him back to the Complex League in early June for a week of games before he returned to Fresno in mid-June. That stint proved far more successful and Dalis saw his bat come alive, hitting for a .900 OPS in June and then a scorching .374/.444/.727 July that included eight homers and ten steals, earning him the player of the month award for the California League in July. Purple Row’s Samantha Bradfield was also able to interview Dalis during his time in the Complex.

Dalis got a bump up to High-A Spokane last week, where he is 3.5 years younger than league average. In six games there so far, he’s 4-for-18 (including a double and triple) with five walks and five strikeouts. Between the ACL, Low-A, and High-A this year, Dalis has a .296/.396/.545 line with 16 homers among his 39 extra-base-hits along with 25 steals in 28 attempts, good for a 135 wRC+. Dalis is walking in 13% of plate appearances while striking out in 24% of them and he’s been much more potent from the left side of the plate with a .996 OPS against a .735 OPS from the right. In the field, Dalis has split his time roughly evenly between second, shortstop, and third — committing 12 errors to date across those positions.

Here’s some video of Dalis in Fresno this past season, including some slo-mo looks at his swing:

What do the scouts say?

FanGraphs ranks Dalis as a 45+ FV prospect, sixth in the system with a 50 future hit tool to go along with future 55 grades on his raw power, speed, and defense:

[Dalis is] an athletic kid with quick hands and a whippy swing, and he has a puncher’s chance to turn into a low-end five tool player.

Dalis is a switch-hitter with similar swings from both sides of the plate. He has a lofted cut and direct path, with some ability to flatten the barrel on balls up. As it is for many his age, spin is a problem, and the way he pulls off the plate limits his ability to cover the outer half slightly. These are relatively minor quibbles for a teenager with above-average bat speed and bat-to-ball skills, though.

Defensively, Dalis has bounced all over the infield as a pro, and a future at shortstop isn’t out of the question. He has the actions and range of a middle infielder and just enough arm for the left side of the diamond. The safest guess is that he winds up at second, but if given 10 chips and an assignment to place bets on his ultimate home, I’d have tokens on all three spots.

Dalis was a standout this spring. In our looks, he took good at-bats, showed the capacity to make adjustments, and demonstrated that he can square up a good fastball above the belt. More tangibly, after posting a max exit velo of 108 mph last year, he hit a few balls that hard or close to it in the handful of at-bats we observed. It’s early, and caveats about going nuts on spring training looks apply to minor leaguers too, but the arrow sure looks like it’s up here.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Dalis 15th in the org in February:

Dalis is a Venezuelan infielder who hit extremely well in the ACL last year as an 18-year-old and then struggled with offspeed recognition in a brief stint in Low A to end the year. He played mostly third base with a little second and short, probably a utility profile but young enough that he could still have more upside and end up a regular if he tightens the approach.

Dalis is 27th in the system for MLB Pipeline as a 40 FV player:

Dalis gets some high praise from those who have been around the Rockies a while, earning comps to Ezequiel Tovar at a similar age in terms of how he plays the game. The switch-hitter has shown the ability to swing it from both sides of the plate, though he was stronger as a left-handed hitter in 2025, with a hit-over-power profile. He has gap power now with doubles-type pop, but he also isn’t close to being physically mature, so there could be more power to come in the future.

Hopefully, that doesn’t come at the expense of his speed and athleticism. He can steal a base and he has the agility to stay up the middle defensively, with an ease of operation defensively that’s fun to watch. He’ll keep seeing time at three infield positions and while he played he’s played mostly on the left side of the infield, some think second base might be his best shot as a long-term home if he turns into a table-setting every day type of player.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Dalis is an arrow up prospect with his performance and his scouting reports as well, forcing his way to High-A. He offers tremendous defensive utility while showing good power, patience, and is a switch-hitter to boot. That’s why I ranked him as a 45+ FV player, sixth on my ballot. Dalis will probably be back at High-A next year (where he’ll again be among the youngest players in the league), after which he’ll be Rule 5 eligible, so it’s possible the Rockies will want to get him a look at Double-A pitching by then.

9. Logan Reddemann (590 points, 28 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 6; Mode Ballot 9

How did he enter the organization?

2026 Second Round, UCLA

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Reddemann was the first pick in the second round this year, 38th overall, out of UCLA. The 21-year-old 6’2” right-handed pitcher was picked one slot behind fellow PuRP Daniel Jackson but received a $2.63 million bonus that was just below slot for the pick but was $333k higher than Jackson’s. As a prospect, Reddemann has mid to upper-90s heat paired with three different decent breaking balls as well as a cutter and good command. It’s a starter’s profile with some polish and good upside.

Reddemann began his college career with two years at the University of San Diego, then saw his prospect stock take off after transferring to UCLA for this season. Reddemann got some buzz as a top-15 draftee earlier this spring but that backed up a bit due to a flexor strain that limited him to just ten starts and 59.2 innings. The righty made good use of those innings though, posting a 2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 rate, and 1.7 BB/9 rate. In other words Reddemann struck out nearly 36% of batters he faced while walking less than 5% of them. To wit, in one April start against Rutgers, Reddemann struck out 18 hitters in eight innings while walking just one in just 104 pitches.

Reddemann hasn’t made any professional appearances yet, but he will likely be ticketed for High-A Spokane next year given his advanced arsenal.

Here’s a look at Reddemann’s arsenal from his time at UCLA, including some pitch data (and here’s a slo mo video of his pitching mechanics):

What do the scouts say?

Reddemann was 15th on Keith Law’s Big Board at The Athletic:

In mid-April, Reddemann was a lock to go in the top half of the first round, likely to go in the top 10, and maybe even approaching Jackson Flora as the top pitcher in the class. Then he got hurt and all bets have been off. A transfer from the University of San Diego, Reddemann showed plus control of a three-pitch arsenal with a 93-96 mph fastball that has late life up in the zone, a power slider, and changeup that can at least flash plus, and his command was among the best anywhere in the draft class. He has plus control — maybe plus command, too — of a 93-96-mph fastball with late life up, a power slider and a changeup that shows plus. He barely threw his cutter during the first month of the season, but was using it more in his last five-to-six starts and it missed nearly 50 percent of bats when hitters swung. He could be a real four-pitch pitcher with command and control, which, as you might guess, would have made him one of the very best pitchers in the class.

Here’s what Law said after the draft about Reddemann:

UCLA right-hander Logan Reddemann (2) was headed for a top 10 pick before the injury bug bit him. The Bruins called it arm fatigue, then called it a flexor injury, but never said the word “elbow” that I can tell. Before the injury, he was 93-96 with excellent command, working with a hard slider and a 55-60 changeup. He’d started using his cutter more as the spring went on before he got hurt. He returned to throw at the MLB Draft Combine, with his stuff down slightly. He has No. 2 starter upside when healthy.

After ranking him 31st in the draft, MLB Pipeline ranks Reddemann 7th in the system as a 50 FV prospect with 60 grades on his fastball and control, additionally he gets a 55 grade on the changeup and cutter:

Reddemann added strength and velocity, while all of his repertoire improved. His fastball now sits around 95-96 mph, and he’s touched as high as 99 mph, getting plenty of swings-and-misses with the pitch. In the past, his best secondary offering had been his changeup, and the 84-85 mph pitch still has the chance to be a plus offering in the future. But his go-to this year was a hard 87-91 mph cutter, a pitch he’s shown he can throw to both sides of the plate against both lefties and righties, with an ability to bury it on the corners. He also unveiled a newer, sweepier low-80s slider, and he’ll use an 80-82 mph curve to get ahead early in counts. 

Even with the uptick in velocity, Reddemann continued to fill up the strike zone with all of his offerings, and deception in his delivery helps all of it play up. He’s super-competitive on the mound, and scouts who saw him in San Diego have been impressed in the way he changed his breaking-ball profile and stepped up his game in his Draft year.

FanGraphs ranked Reddemann 38th among draft prospects and now place him 11th in the system as a 45 FV player with 55 future grades on his command, fastball, and changeup:

Reddemann has a funky, high-tempo delivery, but he repeats it well, the arm circle is relatively short, and he has no problem pounding the zone with his entire arsenal. He leans on his fastball and throws fairly hard, if without bat-missing shape. The heat sets up his secondaries, which are mature more than they are nasty. The change in particular stands out. It can be hard for guys with this kind of delivery to sell the cambio, but Reddemann maintains arm speed well and reliably misses bats when he locates competitively (he’s prone to spiking it). He’s also got a slider and a curve, the former of which he executes well enough to miss bats, while the latter works as a change-of-pace strike pitch. No one pitch or trait stands out on its own, but everything here is pretty good. He has the upside of a no. 3/4 starter.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Thanks to his advanced command and four pitch mix, Reddemann is a safer bet to remain a starter than others in the system. The arsenal was potent this year, but soon it will be time to test it against professional hitters. I’m optimistic about Reddemann’s ability to move quickly through the system given the profile and ranked him 7th on my ballot as a 45 FV player.

8. Jared Thomas (598 points, 29 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 5 — High Ballot 2, Mode Ballot 14

How did he enter the organization?

2024 Second Round, University of Texas

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Thomas went 42nd-overall to the Rockies as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, signing for an under-slot $2 million. He got that bonus due to excellent bat-to-ball skills, some emerging power, and above-average speed that gives him a high floor offensively. The 23-year-old, 6’2” lefty spent most of his time defensively at Texas (where he played alongside fellow PuRP Max Belyeu) playing first base, but he has split his time in center and left field as a professional, with slightly more time in left.

A strong 2024 cameo in Low-A Fresno (146 wRC+) was cut to only eight games when Thomas went down with a quad injury, but the Rockies saw enough to bump Thomas up to High-A Spokane to begin 2025. In Spokane, Thomas absolutely raked, hitting .330/.427/.495 with 11 homers among his 25 extra-base hits and going 22/24 on steals in 342 plate appearances (147 wRC+). His batting average led the Northwest League while his OBP was third and his OPS was fourth. The Rockies promoted Thomas on July 1st to Double-A Hartford, where he was 2.5 years younger than league average.

Facing upper-minors pitching, Thomas cooled down a bit, hitting a still respectable .245/.347/.374 with three homers among his 14 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 191 plate appearances, which is a 113 wRC+. Thomas struck out in 35% of his Double-A PA and had a decently large platoon split, producing a .726 OPS against lefties vs. a .874 OPS against righties (with a large home/road OPS split of .989/.696 as well). In the field, Thomas committed all six of his errors in left field but had four of his seven outfield assists from center field.

Thomas ended 2025 with a stint in the Arizona Fall League, during which he hit .302/.343/.524 with two homers (including a grand slam) among his nine extra-base hits with eight steals in just 67 plate appearances, but unfortunately a broken hamate bone ended his time in the AFL prematurely.

As Purple Row’s Eli Whitney noted earlier this week in his interview with Thomas (I highly recommend checking it out for much more on Thomas), that hamate injury was the beginning of a tough off-season and 2026 season for Thomas. The hamate surgery didn’t take, so a doctor identified and cleared out a bone spur on Thomas’s metacarpal during or just after spring training. Thomas began his 2026 in the Complex League to build up for the season and was along for the ride as the team won the ACL title last month. Thomas made his way back to Hartford in late July, where he is 1.7 years younger than league average. In nine games so far, Thomas is hitting .270/.342/.351 with a homer and three steals in 41 plate appearances while playing both center and left.

Here’s some video of Thomas in the 2025 Arizona Fall League:

What do the scouts say?

Baseball America ranked Thomas third in the system before the season and project him to be the starting left fielder in 2029:

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Thomas is an average athlete who moves well for his size. He began his pro career playing primarily center field, but when he moved to Hartford, he slid to left field, which is a better long-term fit. Thomas’ move to Double-A also exposed the key area of concern: swing-and-miss issues, particularly against better sequencing and breaking stuff. Still, when he makes contact, it is often loud contact—supported by consistently high exit velocities and quality barrel rates.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thomas 9th in the system in February:

Thomas can show you easy plus power — he hit a ball in the Arizona Fall League that probably hasn’t come down yet, putting it in the Charro Lodge in right field at Scottsdale Stadium, with an EV of 111 mph — but he doesn’t hold it through the year, wearing down in the second half before he got a break between the regular season and the AFL. He needs to keep that strength and muscle, and needs to really tighten up his approach; he misses a little too much in zone and swings a little too much at stuff out of zone, enough to add up to a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in Double A last year. He broke a hamate bone in the AFL, so his power may not be there when he returns this spring. There’s an everyday center fielder package here, somewhere, but he’s got to hit enough to get to it and show he can maintain that power through a whole season.

MLB Pipeline slot Thomas 10th in the org as a 45 FV player with a 50 hit, 55 Run, and 55 Arm grade:

When 100 percent, [Thomas is] very hitterish from the left side of the plate with a smooth swing that helps him typically barrel up baseballs consistently with sneaky power. When he got to Double-A, he did have more trouble recognizing spin, leading to high miss rates against breaking stuff. He’s dug into his swing decisions with the Rockies’ new hitting team to re-establish his approach.

An above-average runner who swiped 33 bags in 2025, Thomas has enough defensive chops to play center field, though he might be best in a corner, and has seen more time in left field than anywhere else. A post-hamate injury Thomas who sticks to his game plan at the plate could be mashing balls at Coors Field in the near future.

FanGraphs ranks Thomas 12th in the system as a 40+ FV player, highlighted by a 55 future raw power grade to go with 50 speed and fielding future grades:

[Thomas] has the skill set of a power-hitting fourth outfielder, with above-average raw and a little defensive versatility but a shaky hit tool. Thomas has a big move in his swing, with a high leg kick, a big hand load, and a long path. The combination of that and average bat speed makes it hard to direct the barrel and adjust off the fastball. We got a glimpse of the challenge ahead when he was promoted to Double-A midway through last year. After dominating High-A, he struck out in 34.6% of his plate appearances in Hartford and his slugging percentage tumbled more than 100 points.

Defensively, Thomas is average in a corner and stretched in center field. He’s an average runner with underbaked reads and tracking skills, and in Coors specifically, you’d much rather have him in left or right. One other thing to note: Thomas broke his hamate in the Arizona Fall League last year and saw limited game action this spring. The effects of this particular injury can linger, and so it behooves all parties to be patient if Thomas starts slowly in 2026. Regardless, he’s tracking like a low-variance fourth outfielder.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Thomas progressed beyond my expectations for him in 2025, producing at an above-average level in Double-A just a year after getting drafted. Even with a mostly lost year in 2026, Thomas is knocking at the door to the big leagues if he can work his way through the outfield logjam above him. Thomas’s ability to at least fake it in center field could be useful in setting him apart, but of course it’s going to be the bat that carries him to big league success.

I was encouraged by how Thomas performed in his first professional season and ranked him 10th on my list as a 45 FV player. I expect he’ll begin 2027 back in Hartford but will be a big league candidate by the end of the season.

7. Gabriel Hughes (654 points, 29 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 12 — High Ballot 2; Mode Ballot 7

How did he enter the organization?

2022 First Round, Gonzaga University

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

This is the final PuRPs appearance for Hughes, who went 10th overall in 2022 and signed for an under-slot $4 million bonus out of Gonzaga, because he has recently exhausted his rookie eligibility. The 24-year-old (he’ll turn 25 this Saturday) 6’4” right-hander was ranked more as a late-first rounder than a top-10 pick by national prospect watchers at the time, but the Rockies obviously liked the starter’s frame, feel for pitching and the three-pitch mix. The former two-way player has a fastball that sits in the low-mid 90s and a bulldog mentality that has been compared to Max Scherzer (you can see some of that in the video below).

Hughes is now over three years removed from a Tommy John surgery that cut a promising first full professional season short and delayed his climb to the big leagues. Hughes pitched well in High-A in his first full professional season in 2023 and mostly held his own in Double-A Hartford as one of the younger players in the league before the injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in July. Hughes rehabbed the injury throughout the 2024 season but was able to make Colorado’s Arizona Fall League roster, during which time scouts reported his stuff had largely returned post-surgery and he was working on developing his breaking balls.

In 2025, Hughes returned to Hartford — in nine starts there, Hughes got good results in short bursts (he was limited to five innings per start), throwing 41 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 rate, and 1.8 BB/9 rate — earning him a late-May promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque. In the tough Pacific Coast League, Hughes faced an uphill climb. In 14 starts there, Hughes (as expected) posted worse run prevention numbers across the board (5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 rate, 4.2 BB/9 rate) in 61.2 innings. These starts were interrupted by a month-long IL stint between mid June and late July (and a brief rehab start in the ACL). After returning, Hughes ramped up his pitch count (the highest was 96) and pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts.

Though Hughes didn’t blow upper minors hitting away in 2025 or go super deep into games, his blended 4.19 ERA in 105.1 innings in 24 starts was an encouraging sign in his first full season post-Tommy John. It was enough for the Rockies to add Hughes to the 40-man roster this offseason.

This year, Hughes was back in Albuquerque. He made six appearances in March/April and got roughed up before landing on the IL for over a month. Hughes made two rehab starts in High-A near his college stomping grounds in Spokane, then returned to Albuquerque in mid-June. Hughes made three starts and was nearly unhittable, allowing zero runs on four hits and five walks with 16 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. That was enough for Hughes to get the call up to the Show on July 1st, where he’s remained ever since.

Hughes started his big league career off with a three inning save in a blowout win, but all his subsequent seven appearances have been starts, including a quality start in his first start. Hughes has been knocked around over his last three starts, but he’s now accumulated 37.2 innings in the big leagues with a 6.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 rate, and 3.1 BB/9 rate. Hughes has strong peripherals, which is why his 4.22 xFIP is so much lower than his ERA and why his 0.8 fWAR (based on FIP) is so different than the results-oriented -0.1 rWAR total.

Here’s some video on Hughes from 2024 instructs and the AFL courtesy of FanGraphs:

What do the scouts say?

Hughes is ranked 29th in the system by FanGraphs as a 40 FV prospect with a 50 future grade on the changeup, slider, and curveball:

Hughes went 10th overall in the 2022 draft, which was a surprise, as most evaluators had him ranked at least a dozen picks lower. He’s occasionally looked like that kind of pitching prospect — including in a lights-out look against the Dodgers’ big leaguers the following spring — but for the most part, Hughes has tracked like a backend arm. His long and deep arm stroke limits his ability to hit spots, which isn’t ideal for a guy with no plus pitch on the ledger, particularly since Hughes’ stuff was also down in his return from Tommy John last year. He was sitting just 90-93 and with correspondingly less bite on each of his breaking balls than he had at his pre-surgery peak. He didn’t miss many bats at either Double- or Triple-A, and barring a significant bounce back in the quality of his repertoire, he’s now tracking like a no. 5 with middle relief fallback.

Keith Law of the Athletic listed Hughes 18th in the system in February:

Hughes’ stuff is down from pre-surgery, as he was sitting 90-92 in Triple A last year with fringe-average breaking stuff, bearing in mind that Albuquerque is about a mile high (with help from Walter White) and that may be contributing to Hughes’ problems. It was Hughes’ first year back post-surgery, so I want to believe the stuff will tick up with another year; as is, he’s a reliever, and probably would be better off in the majors than going back to pitch on the surface of a small Jovian moon again.

MLB Pipeline ranked Hughes 14th on the system list last year as a 45 FV player with a 55 slider grade to pair with 50 grades on the fastball, curveball, and control:

Hughes was able to use his 17 1/3 innings in the AFL to shake some of the rust off and the good news is that his stuff looked pretty much back to where it was pre-injury. His fastball averaged 93 mph and touched 96, thrown with good sink to frequently get ground-ball contact. His cutter-like slider was regularly in the mid 80s, a hard breaker that flashed plus in the past, and he has some feel to spin a slower 80-82 mph curve, though it’s behind the harder breaking ball. His upper-80s changeup is starting to improve as well.

Throw out Hughes’ surface numbers in the AFL given they came from his first post-surgery innings. He generally was around the zone previously, though his up-tempo delivery could get out of sync and cause timing issues, which in turn would lead to control problems. His ceiling might be somewhat limited, but once he really puts TJ behind him, he could be a big league back-end starter soon.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Hughes is now a Major League starting pitcher, full stop, which puts him above what many in this list so far will ever achieve. He’s got some pedigree and polish, though he probably won’t be a star, which is why I ranked him as a 40+ FV player, 13th on my list. Colorado’s starter depth entering 2027 is pretty dire, so Hughes is auditioning for a longer-term gig in the rotation down the stretch this year.

Tomorrow, it’s time to enter the upper echelon of the mid-season 2026 PuRPs list!

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The Cincinnati Reds hold just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs as of writing on Thursday morning, that coming from the fine folks at FanGraphs. The St. Louis Cardinals, though, are still clinging to a much more realistic miracle scenario with a 9.5% chance.

So, if the Reds are going to get anything tangible out of this dismal 2026 season, perhaps it needs to come in the form of playing spoiler for their most bitter of rivals.

The Reds can claim victory in this endless five-game series against their National League Central rivals with a win on Thursday afternoon. Sal Stewart’s late heroics on Wednesday night means the two teams have split the four games they have played so far this week, and Brady Singer will lead Cincinnati into the series finale in Great American Ball Park beginning at 12:40 PM ET Thursday.

Michael McGreevy will start for St. Louis.

Here’s how both clubs will line up to start: