
TThe Phillies need offense. They need a lot of things but one of them is offense.
They could especially use it in the outfield, a group whose top performers by the end of the season were two short-side platoon options. The Phillies like the Justin Crawford and Derek Hill platoon in center but they shouldn’t be married to it. With Bryce Harper moving back to first base, they will need a right fielder. After Brandon Marsh’s second half, his spot in left field shouldn’t be written in pen either.
The free agent market is not robust on talent, especially in the outfield. Nevertheless, there will be guys who fans will clamor for the Phillies to sign. Randy Arozarena put together the best season of his career with the Seattle Mariners while playing half his games in the worst-hitting environment in the Majors. Seiya Suzuki was a really good hitter in a loaded Chicago Cubs lineup.
All of them will require real dollars and real term from someone. Given their past results, it’s incredibly justified.One of them may even be a Philadelphia Phillie and suiting up in red pinstripes whenever the season actually begins.
It’s not hard to see why. The Phillies need offense, especially from the outfield and don’t have many other places to turn. Maybe they try to take a shot on a veteran looking for a bounce-back season again but this situation seems different. It feels like they could throw some money around to try and solve real offensive issues, especially since they do not have the prospect capital to make significant trades.They could go for Teruaki Sato but I’ll believe they’ll land a star Japanese player when they actually do.
With all of that said, it would be important for the Phillies to beware of paying for aging corner outfielders. The recent history suggests that the best way to play that market is to not play it at all.
Here are the outfield contracts signed since 2021 that are at least three years, at $15 million average annual value or higher, and feature players beginning their age-29 season or later. All of these qualifiers could very likely fit the Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki markets.
- George Springer: 6 years, $150 million with the Toronto Blue Jays (2021)
- Kris Bryant: 7 years, $182 million with the Colorado Rockies (2022)
- Nick Castellanos: 5 years, $100 million with the Philadelphia Phillies (2022)
- Kyle Schwarber: 4 years, $79 million with the Philadelphia Phillies (2022)
- Starling Marte: 4 years, $78 million with the New York Mets (2022)
- Aaron Judge: 9 years, $360 million with the New York Yankees (2023)
- Brandon Nimmo: 8 years, $162 million with the New York Mets (2023)
- Masataka Yoshida: 5 years, $90 million with the Boston Red Sox (2023)
- Anthony Santander: 5 years, $92.5 million with the Toronto Blue Jays (2025)
- Teoscar Hernandez: 3 years, $66 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2025)
- Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $49.5 million with the Baltimore Orioles (2025)
- Kyle Tucker: 4 years, $240 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2026)
- Cody Bellinger: 5 years, $162.5 million with the New York Yankees (2026)
Before we go over the list, it’s fair to exclude Kyle Schwarber and Masataka Yoshida from this discussion, since they weren’t true outfielders to begin with. Aaron Judge is just a different player than everyone else on here so should he really count? Brandon Nimmo was supposed to play a lot more center field. Excuse Kris Bryant with a bunch of terrible injuries too.
Even with all of that said, there are more examples of bad contracts that not. Nick Castellanos was not a complete disaster but close enough to one. Teoscar is a trade candidate because he’s declining. Santander was terrible in 2025 and did not play this year. Tyler O’Neill has been hurt but also bad. Kyle Tucker?
George Springer has put together some very good seasons with the Blue Jays but he’s also not been very good for a decent chunk of his deal. Same for Starling Marte with the Mets.
These corner outfield, bat first types just do not age very well into their 30s. Cody Bellinger provides a lot more athleticism defensively and has more versatility than anyone else on that list which should explain why he signed for a lot more. He should be a more useful player as the bat declines.
How does this all decide how we should view the current class?
Randy Arozarena is going to command a lot of money and while it makes a lot of sense for the Phillies to do it for 2027, it might be a really tough pill to swallow, potentially even for 2027.
He traded off some bat speed to make more contact and that paid off in a career year. However, he will turn 33 for next season and he still featured below average swing-and-miss and an average strikeout rate. Once that goes, which can happen quickly for someone his age, you’re talking about a hitter that is just sacrificing power without enough other gains around it.
Arozarena also does not play a very good left field and that is likely only going to get worse as he ages. You need everything in the offensive profile to stay as he heads into his mid 30s and that is just not something you should expect.
Seiya Suzuki turns 33 and put together his best defensive season in 2026 (although some of that could be impacted by not playing with Pete Crow-Armstrong anymore). There is potential impact off the field if he is willing to sign in Philadelphia. The Phillies have been trying to land a prominent Japanese star but have failed over the last few years. Suzuki has at least played in Philadelphia a few times over the years so theoretically, there is less of an adjustment to make. Especially since he’s spent the last few seasons in America.
With that said, he saw sharp declines in his damage rate from 2025, and his hard-hit rate went down by nearly ten percent. There might already be some examples of a declining profile with an aging outfielder.
This is not to say that signing either player is some guaranteed failure. It’s to say that you probably need either of them to be an exception to the rule for it to work out on a long-term deal for significant money.
Given the Phillies’ position, with an aging roster and not wanting to waste the last few great years of Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber, it’s understandable. However, potentially digging the grave further is not going to be ideal for the long-term health of the franchise, which needs to take priority at some point.
















