Worldwide Sports News

Major League Baseball dove headfirst into the prediction market business on Thursday, announcing a multi-year deal with Polymarket after signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) regarding information-sharing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The deal, first reported by Front Office Sports, is for three years and worth between $150 million-300 million to MLB, according to the site. Polymarket will gain exclusive access to MLB licensed logos and branding.

MLB joins the NHL, MLS, and UFC in taking on official prediction market partners. Commissioner Rob Manfred began laying groundwork for a deal with discussions with the players’ union this summer and last month suggested that such partnerships would be a boon for integrity. Polymarket will have access to official league data to resolve markets.

Manfred told ESPN that federal oversight simplified integrity procedures.

“The fact that you have a federal regulatory scheme makes our life a lot easier as opposed to … for example, sports betting, where you’re going state by state,” he said.

Prediction markets: more big-name pals

Prediction markets keep adding high-leverage partners, even as the legality of controversial sports event contracts is litigated in multiple states. The sites assert federal oversight by the CFTC and states deem them unlicensed sports betting. But with CFTC leadership allowing prediction markets to swing for the fences in terms of expansion, and legal resolution perhaps years away, deals are forming and the market keeps growing.

Kalshi is reportedly negotiating a content-integration deal with Fox Corp., after making the same pacts earlier with CNN and CNBC. Massive sportsbook brands like DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction market platforms to harness national interest in the upstart mode of sports betting.

We’re honored to announce MLB has named Polymarket as their Exclusive Prediction Market Exchange Partner.

Polymarket 🤝 MLB pic.twitter.com/o192gdhpZm

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 19, 2026

Integrity a focus of MLB-CFTC pitch

The MOU with MLB is the first the CFTC has entered with a professional sports league. According to a CFTC release, it “establishes a framework for the CFTC and MLB to discuss, cooperate, and exchange information concerning issues of common interest, including protecting the integrity of professional baseball and the relating prediction markets.” 

While the pact is partly designed, according to the release, to “better anticipate emerging trends,” it emphasizes that it will allow “both parties to more swiftly respond to incidents,” at a time when regulatory structure and insider-trading concerns have dogged the prediction market industry. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman noted after signing deals with Kalshi and Polymarket that fans can be assured league markets on those platforms are “based on real data.”

That said, the first-pitch markets allegedly manipulated by suspended Cleveland pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were based on real data, too. But the new information cooperative should, in theory, allow similar episodes to be discovered more easily between MLB and Polymarket.

Today the @CFTC and @MLB made history by signing the first-ever MOU between a sports league and federal agency.

We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball.

Through this partnership, the… pic.twitter.com/SNfym65t0N

— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) March 19, 2026

“The MOU is a collaborative step toward promoting the integrity and resilience of the prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this MOU, the CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect these markets and its participants from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a release. “I thank MLB and Commissioner Rob Manfred for partnering with the CFTC and taking a leading role in protecting the integrity of these growing markets.”

Sportradar in 2025 extended its decade-long partnership with MLB as exclusive data-distributor and integrity partner. A Sportradar spokesperson said the company envisions a “significant opportunity to monetize our products and services in prediction markets.”

“Similar to our approach with [online sportsbooks],” a statement continues, “our commercial agreements will be varied and structured to optimize value. Our arrangement with MLB reflects this approach, providing Polymarket with MLB data and the opportunity to provide our broad suite of products and services, as well as an ability to provide these to other participants in the prediction markets.”  

Royals fans may be underwhelmed with what the club has done to address its outfield offensive needs, but even with Opening Day just over a week away, it’s not too late for the Royals to make a move. Teams around baseball are still sorting through roster crunches, injuries, and late-camp competitions, which can create opportunities for trades right up until the end of spring training. It would not be unprecedented for the Royals to make a trade in camp. Throughout their history the Royals have pulled off a number of spring training deals, some minor and some quite significant, that reshaped the roster just days or weeks before the season began.

Here are some notable trades the Royals made while players were tuning up for the season in camp.

April 1, 1969 – Acquired Lou Piniella

Piniella was originally signed by the Cleveland Indians, but bounced around to the Senators and Orioles organizations before the Indians reacquired him. But they left him unprotected for the expansion draft in 1968, and the new Seattle franchise selected him. Piniella had a fiery attitude that rubbed manager Joe Schultz the wrong way, so near the end of spring training, the Pilots traded him to the other expansion team, the Royals for outfielder Steve Whitaker and pitcher John Gelnar. Piniella would be the starting left fielder and collect the first hit in Royals history, on his way to hitting .282 and winning Rookie of the Year.

March 30, 1982 – Acquired Vida Blue

The Royals were quite active in the weeks leading up to the 1982 season, trading infielder Rance Mullinks to the Blue Jays in a trade for minor leaguer Phil Huffman, and sending infielder Manny Castillo to the Mariners for a player to be named later, a shrewd deal that would net them left-hander Bud Black.

The Giants were looking to get younger in their rotation, and the Royals considered a deal for veteran Doyle Alexander. But he refused to report unless he got a new contract, and the Royals were unable to meet his high demands. Instead, near the end of spring training, they acquired former Cy Young winner and six-time All-Star Vida Blue from the Giants in a six-player trade that included pitcher Atlee Hammaker and outfielder Renie Martin. Blue was just 32 years old and coming off a season in which he posted a 2.45 ERA, and gave the Royals an ace to pair with Dennis Leonard, Larry Gura, and an aging Paul Splittorff. Blue would win 13 games that year, but would soon be embroiled in a drug scandal that would rock the Royals’ clubhouse.

March 27, 1987 – Traded David Cone and Jim Sundberg

The Royals decided to go young behind the plate, having lost confidence in veteran Gold Glove catcher Jim Sundberg in 1987. Ed Hearn was a young Mets catcher who impressed many when he filled in for Gary Carter when the All-Star was injured. The Royals acquired him late in spring training in a five-player trade for a young pitcher named David Cone, a Kansas City native who had some control issues and posted an impressive 5.56 ERA in 11 games the previous season.

Just a few days later, the team sent Sundberg to the Cubs in a deal that saved the Royals some money and gave them sorely needed outfield depth in Thad Bosley. The deal stunned players in camp, and gave the Royals an unproven catching tandem of Hearn and Larry Owen. But the overlooked part of the move was Cone, who went on to New York and became a 20-game winner and All-Star pitcher.

March 10, 1992 – Traded Kirk Gibson

The Royals had long coveted Kirk Gibson and his fiery attitude, nearly signing him after the 1987 season before owners decided collectively not to sign free agents. But he instead went to Los Angeles and won MVP and a World Series with the Dodgers. He didn’t join the Royals until 1991, after his knees were banged up and he missed half the prior season with a hamstring injury.

He signed a two-year, $3.3 million deal, but slumped badly in September. He also clashed with new manager Hal McRae, who told him the next spring he would not be a starter. The Royals shipped him to the Pirates for high-priced lefty reliever Neal Heaton. Gibson spent just 16 games in Pittsburgh before they released him in March, but he would rebound the next year back in Detroit.

March 27, 1997 – Traded Michael Tucker for Jermaine Dye

The Royals had a young, up-and-coming, but very left-handed-heavy outfield in 1996 with phenom Johnny Damon, speedster Tom Goodwin, and former first-round pick Michael Tucker. They sought a right-handed bat to balance things out, and found a match with the Braves. Atlanta was fresh off a National League pennant, but GM John Schuerholz was making bold moves to revamp the outfield, sending David Justice and Marquis Grissom to Cleveland for Kenny Lofton. He needed another outfielder to platoon with rookie Andruw Jones, and acquired Tucker from the Royals for young right-handed bat Jermaine Dye.

Dye had impressed in his rookie season in 1996, but many observers felt the Braves had gotten the better of the deal. Star columnist Jeffrey Flanagan wrote “the Royals have lost their minds” while the usually optimistic Joe Posnanski slammed the deal.

“This was just one of those moves that hurts a team, even if Dye turns out to be good, which is no guarantee by the way. Dye had a reasonably good half-season for the Braves, but they were not sold on him. It’s hard to be sold on a guy who walks less than Marlon Brando.

This guy chases bad pitches like Tommy Lee Jones going after the Fugitive.”

-Joe Posnanski

Dye would struggle for a few seasons, but he hit 27 home runs in 1999, and started the All-Star Game the next year.

March 16, 2022 – Traded Mike Minor for Amir Garrett

Minor was a valuable reliever for the Royals in 2017, as he recovered from shoulder surgery. He went on to have a great stint in Texas, but returned to the Royals before the 2021 season on a two-year, $18 million deal. He struggled with a 5.05 ERA, and with young pitchers like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, and Daniel Lynch IV coming up, the team no longer needed his innings. The Royals were able to free up some money by sending him to the Reds for animated lefty reliever Amir Garrett. He struggled with his command and had mixed results in two seasons with the Royals, while Minor made just 19 starts with the Reds with an ERA over six.

February 17, 2024 – Acquired John Schreiber

After losing 106 games in 2023, the Royals sought to revamp the bullpen, adding Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson in the offseason. Just after pitchers reported to camp, they brought in another reliever, acquiring sidearmer John Schrieber from the Red Sox for pitching prospect David Sandlin. Schrieber was a late bloomer, having a terrific 2022 season, with mixed results in 2023. He posted a 3.66 ERA in 59 games, and had five scoreless outings in the postseason that fall.

Other notable spring training trades:

February 18, 2000 – Traded Jeremy Giambi to the Oakland Athletics for Brett Laxton.

March 23, 2007 – Traded Erik Cordier to the Atlanta Braves for Tony Pena Jr.

March 26, 2008 – Traded Jorge de la Rosa to the Colorado Rockies for Ramon Ramirez.

Morning, all!

Evan Grant’s final roster projection of the spring suggests that the Rangers should keep both Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker, and make a trade with Baltimore to remove Carter Baumler’s Fule 5 status.

Luis Curvelo turned down the opportunity to pitch for Team Venezuela because he wanted to concentrate on making the Rangers Opening Day roster and that decision looks to have paid off.

Cal Quantrill made the opposite decision and is just now returning to camp after pitching for Team Canada.

Kennedi Landry points out that, to the extent that spring stats actually mean anything, the Rangers have definitely made some positive changes to their offense.

After sending Harry Ford to Triple-A yesterday, the Nats sent a couple more big names to Rochester. This morning, the team announced that Josiah Gray, Robert Hassell III and Julian Fernandez had been sent to Triple-A, while Zach Penrod has been reassigned to minor league camp. Obviously, Hassell and Gray are the biggest names here, and we will break down why they are starting the season in Rochester.

The Nationals have made the following roster moves:

Optioned to Triple-A Rochester:
-RHP Julian Fernandez
-RHP Josiah Gray
-OF Robert Hassell III

Reassigned to Minor League camp:
-LHP Zach Penrod

— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) March 19, 2026

While Hassell’s demotion will be a surprise to some, it was not a huge shock to me. The Nats have a very deep pool of outfielders, and Hassell was on the outside looking in. There are a lot of mouths to feed between James Wood, Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young, Hassell, Christian Franklin and even Joey Wiemer. 

The fact that Hassell is left handed may have hurt him. With Wood and Lile being lefties, the Nats may have wanted a right handed bench outfielder. Christian Franklin and Joey Wiemer are both good against left handed pitching, so that may have given them the edge. Hassell also struggled pretty heavily in his first taste of big league action, with a .572 OPS.

Hassell was better than Dylan Crews this spring, but still only posted a .631 OPS despite a .286 average. Hopefully Hassell can either tap into more power or cut down his strikeouts in AAA. Right now, Hassell feels like a guy who is fairly well rounded, but does not have one thing he excels at. 

Despite the demotion, I think we will see Hassell at some point this season. If Dylan Crews continues to struggle and Hassell excels in the minors, he could take that spot. However, in a crowded outfield room, Hassell is going to need to stand out to get playing time.

As for Josiah Gray, this demotion feels like a way to buy time. The former All-Star has missed most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery and needs to make up for lost time. While he is healthy now, Gray could use some time to ramp up. 

Nationals have optioned Josiah Gray, Robert Hassell III and Julian Fernandez to AAA. Zach Penrod also reassigned to minor-league camp.

Not a surprise with Gray, whose workload can be managed in Rochester before he eventually gets called up. Hassell's demotion a bit of a surprise

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) March 19, 2026

This gives the Nats a set rotation of Cade Cavalli, Zack Littell, Foster Griffin, Miles Mikolas and Jake Irvin. If either of those last two guys struggle, Gray will be able to take their place. Both Mikolas and Irvin should be on short leashes entering the season given the starting pitching depth.

Gray’s lack of velocity is another reason why they sent him down. In his first inning of spring, he was sitting at 94, but after that he was living more in the 90-92 range. Hopefully more velocity comes back as he gets further removed from the surgery. 

Josiah Gray is making his second spring training start tonight.

He just got a punch out with a CB. Threw 7 breaking balls and just 4 FBs in a clean first. Topped out at 92. pic.twitter.com/uDf5oFvK49

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) March 7, 2026

Even if it does not come back, Gray is mostly a breaking ball pitcher now anyway. The velocity on his slider and curve were more in line with pre-surgery numbers. This trip to the minors allows Gray to get his feet wet and re-establish himself.

If he can get back to his 2023 ways, Gray can be a valuable, if frustrating piece of the rotation. The Nats new pitching philosophy is all about cutting fastball usage if you don’t have a good fastball, and that is right up Gray’s alley. He was already doing that, but now he can take that to the extreme. 

Hassell and Gray are both likely to get their shot at some point this season, but it will not be on Opening Day. With more cuts to make, Paul Toboni and Blake Butera still have big decisions to make. However, we are getting closer to seeing what that Opening Day roster looks like.

Howie Rose, a legendary broadcaster who has been a play-by-play voice for the Mets since 1996, is retiring after the 2026 MLB season.

Rose, 72, made the announcement on Thursday.

"Having grown up in Shea Stadium’s upper deck in the 1960s and early 1970s, my long career as a Mets broadcaster has been the epitome of 'Living the Dream,'" Rose said in a statement. "I have been honored and blessed to follow the lineage of Lindsey Nelson, Bob Murphy and Ralph Kiner and I look forward to savoring and sharing every moment of the 2026 season with the greatest fans in baseball."

Said Mets owners Steve and Alex Cohen:

"For nearly four decades, Howie Rose’s voice has been synonymous with New York Mets baseball. His passion for the Mets has carried across the airwaves and into the homes and hearts of fans everywhere, bringing the franchise’s most memorable moments to life. Generations of Mets fans have grown up listening to Howie call the game with authenticity, energy, and a deep appreciation for what this team means to our community. We are grateful for the relationship we’ve built with Howie and for the dedication he has shown to the organization and our fans since 1987. We congratulate Howie on an extraordinary career and wish him the very best as he begins this next chapter with his wife, Barbara, and their daughters, Alyssa and Chelsea."

Since 2004, Rose has been calling Mets games on the radio, with his famous "put it in the books" putting an exclamation point on wins.

A 2023 inductee into the Mets Hall of Fame, Rose has also been the emcee for major on-field ceremonies, including number retirements. 

Before becoming an in-game on-air voice, Rose -- a native of Bayside, Queens -- hosted pre-and postgame shows on Mets radio starting in 1987.

It’s just the nature of life that some people end up passing away at way too young an age. As we do our Yankees’ Birthdays series, we’re unfortunately going to come across some of them here too. While the name Fritz Brickell might not mean as much to you as some other tragic Yankee deaths, 30 is no age for anyone to pass away. With today being what would’ve been his 91st birthday, let’s look back on his life.

Fritz Darrell Brickell
Born: March 19, 1935 (Wichita, KS)
Died: October 15, 1965 (Wichita, KS)
Yankees Tenure: 1958-59

Born in 1935 in Kansas, Fritz Brickell was the son of former MLB player Fred Brickell. The elder Brickell played in the majors from 1926-33 for the Pirates and Phillies, appearing for Pittsburgh in their 1927 World Series loss to the Yankees.

With his size listed at 5-foot-7, 160 pounds, Fritz was never an overly impressive athlete, but he still played a number of sports in his youth. One of them was baseball, and it was on the diamond where he stood out. After impressing at a Kansas semipro tournament, he caught the eye of the Yankees, who signed him in 1953.

Mostly playing the middle infield, Brickell had solid power for someone playing those positions in that area, and worked his way up to Triple-A by 1957. The following year, he got a callup to the majors, and made his debut as a defensive replacement on April 30th. After making two appearances in the early part of the 1958 season, Brickell returned to the minors for the rest of that season. He suffered a setback later that season after breaking his ankle, which probably prevented a return to the bigs in ‘58.

Brickell was eventually called back up by the Yankees in June of 1959. He went on to record his first major league hit on July 4th, got his first major league start on July 19th, and his first major league home run on July 25th. It was actually a semi-important homer too, as it was a two-run shot that gave the Yankees a lead in a game they eventually won 9-8.

However, with the likes of Bobby Richardson, Tony Kubek, and Clete Boyer all around and pretty young, the Yankees didn’t have a massive need in the middle infield, and eventually sent Brickell back down to the minors. Upon his return there, he was actually suspended at first after failing to report on time.

In 1960, Brickell would spend the entire 1960 season with the Triple-A Richmond Virginians. The Yankees apparently began to try and find suitors for him in a trade, but nothing much would come until the following season. In spring training 1961, Brickell played very well, and the expansion California Angels developed an interest in him. A couple weeks before the start of the season, the Yankees sent him to the Angels in exchange for pitcher Duke Maas (who we profiled in a birthday piece already), who had only gone to California in their expansion draft earlier that offseason.

With the Angels, Brickell did get an extended chance in the majors. He was the team’s starting shortstop on Opening Day in the team’s first ever game in history. He recorded a hit as California got their existence off to a winning start, beating the Orioles.

Despite that decent start, Brickell couldn’t stick with the Angels either. While he had three hits in his first four games with the Angels, he then went into a 3-for-38 slump over his next 17 games. Eventually, the expansion Angels decided that wasn’t enough for them and sold him to the Triple-A Toronto Maple Leafs. He played one further season in the minors before returning to his native Wichita.

At some point in the next couple years, Brickell was diagnosed with cancer of the jaw. Former teammates like Mickey Mantle chipped in, holding a hitting exhibition back in Kansas at a “Fritz Brickell Night” held in Wichita. Brickell eventually passed away from the disease in 1965. He was survived by a wife and two children. Following his passing, he was inducted into the Kansas Baseball Hall of Fame, where he joined his father.

Oh, and before his MLB career actually began, Brickell appeared on the game show “To Tell the Truth.” Video of that appearance still exists today.

---

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

This weekend, Major League Baseball will hold its third annual Spring Breakout which features baseball’s top prospects facing off against one another as Spring Training winds down. Bragging rights are on the line along with some future roster spots as the sport’s best and brightest compete head-to-head.

The A’s Spring Breakout game is scheduled for 1:05 P.M. PT, Sunday, March 22, at Hohokam Stadium against the top prospects from the Brewers’ system. The rosters are developed by analyzing each franchise’s top thirty prospect list and then bolstering the lineups with additions submitted by the teams. The players will participate in the showcase then be dispersed to their minor league assignments. I expect some of them will not be out of our eyesight for long. Players who will headline the A’s team are familiar names such as Leo De Vries, Henry Bolte, Jamie Arnold, all top-five prospects who played well during Spring Training but will start the season down on the farm.

The final rosters were released today, the A’s in Martín Gallegos column this morning:

Gameday Roster

Pitchers
Jamie Arnold, LHP, No. 2/MLB No. 41
Corey Avant, RHP, NR
Steven Echavarria, RHP, No. 16
Jackson Finley, RHP, NR
Kenya Huggins, RHP, No. 24
Cole Miller, RHP, No. 25
Kade Morris, RHP, No. 12
Eduarniel Núñez, RHP, No. 22
Tzu-Chen Sha, RHP, NR
Zane Taylor, RHP, No. 19

Two-Way Players
Shotaro Morii, SS/RHP, No. 13

Catchers
Cole Conn, C, NR
Davis Diaz, C, NR
Dylan Fien, C, NR

Infielders

Bobby Boser, 3B/SS, No. 30
Leo De Vries, SS, No. 1/MLB No. 4
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, SS, No. 10
Edgar Montero, SS, No. 11
Drew Swift, INF, NR
Tommy White, 3B, No. 9

Outfielders
Henry Bolte, OF, No. 5
Breyson Guedez, OF, No. 23
Nate Nankil, OF, No. 26
Ryan Lasko, OF, No. 21
Cameron Leary, OF, No. 29
Junior Perez, OF, No. 20
Devin Taylor, OF, No. 8

Follow the Game
Watch:

Athletics Prospects – MLB Video
National – MLBN (out-of-market only)

Listen:

Athletics Prospects – ATH Audio

Good morning everyone!

The Mariners are coming off a 7-3 victory over the Brew Crew thanks to strong performances from Emerson Hancock and Luke Raley, among others.

Today is a big day in the sports world, as March Madness on the men’s side kicks off in full (and the women — including UW, Oregon, Gonzaga, and Idaho — get started tomorrow!). If you’re reading this before 9:15am PT, it’s not too late to join the Lookout Landing ESPN bracket challenge! Test your ball knowledge (or, let’s be honest: luck) against fellow members of the community!

If you made a bracket, who is your champ? What is your hottest take? Every year I try to pick a fun, out-of-the-box upset to give myself something to look forward to during those first round games. Sometimes it works. This year, I’ve got North Dakota State over Michigan State. We’ll see if it pays off!

In Mariners news…

• Get yourself refreshed on the Mariners Spring Breakout roster in advance of their game tomorrow at 2pm PT.
• Unsurprisingly, the Mariners are mulling over the possibility of breaking camp with Colt Emerson if J.P. Crawford needs to start the season on the injured list.
• After a down season for Luke Raley, Brent Stecker outlines why we shouldn’t be sleeping on the burly outfielder.
• Bryce Miller got back on the mound on Tuesday for a 30-pitch bullpen session and all went smoothly. He’s slated to throw again tomorrow, during which he’d like to get to 90% intensity.
• Bradley Woodrum at Baseball Prospectus provided his preview of the Mariners’ 2026 season, which includes a position-by-position breakdown. ($)
• Joe Sheehan released his predictions for the 2026 season, in which he picked the Mariners as the World Series champs.

Around the league…

• Blue Jays right-hander José Berríos is out with a stress fracture in his elbow. The team is not sure when he will be back.
• Harry Ford will not break camp with the Nationals, as he has been optioned to Triple-A Rochester. The team will carry Keibert Ruiz and Drew Millas as their catchers to start the season.
• Lookout Landing alum Matthew Roberson appeared on the latest episode of Tipping Pitches for a fun episode in which they drafted the MLB stadium sponsors they’d most want to work for.
• Luis Paez-Pumar at Defector celebrated this special championship for Venezuela, particularly at this moment in the nation’s history.
• Shout out to Araeclis for playing such a large role in this awesome moment!

• How can you not be romantic about baseball?

• Some changes may be coming to the World Baseball Classic, namely a shift of the tournament to the middle of the MLB season.

Overview:

After a season where they took a step back, I’m pretty confident that the Royals will bounce back in a big way in 2026. I expect Witt to be his normal MVP-caliber self (I actually think he ends up winning MVP this year), with bouncebacks from Pasquantino and Ragans, breakout seasons from Jensen, and for Maikel Garcia to continue his upward swing to become among the best 3rd basemen in MLB. For what it’s worth, if you don’t know Carter Jensen by now, you will quickly become accustomed to hearing his name whenever he inevitably gets called up to the big leagues this season. He’s, in my opinion, the best catching prospect in the league, and will take over the backstop anchored by Salvador Perez for the last decade. I assume Perez will slide to DH with occasional 1B stints mixed in when Pasquantino needs a day off. Back to Jensen. He broke out last year after a disappointing 2023 campaign and, to a lesser degree, a disappointing 2024 campaign. While he posted a sub-.800 OPS at AA in 2025, he put up a whopping 166 wRC+ at AAA over 40+ games. His strikeout rate rose, which is slightly concerning, but his walk rate rose with it. He had an ISO of **.359** at AAA. All of these next stats come courtesy of Thomas Nestico (@TJStats on X, his website is tjstats.ca). He hits the ball hard — constantly — registering a 100th percentile Hard-Hit rate last year at AAA. Barrel rate is in the 95th percentile, he doesn’t chase (87th percentile), and he pulls the ball in the air (72nd percentile). His weaknesses are his passivity (6th percentile swing% at AAA), and contact (28th percentile whiff%).

Offseason Additions/Subtractions:

One of the, funny enough, biggest reasons I’m so high on the Royals this year is because of the ballpark dimension changes they made in the offseason. As you all know, Kauffman Stadium has one of the biggest outfields in the league, which has made itself one of the hardest parks to hit home runs in. Conversely, it’s made it one of the easiest parks to hit doubles & triples in. No longer! According to the Royals’ MLB.com writer Anne Rogers, the Royals are moving in their left- and right-field walls between 9-10 feet. They’re also lowering the height of walls by a little over a foot. Here’s the article.

Royals announce new outfield dimensions at The K

Outside of Witt, both Pasquantino and Salvador Perez have inevitably suffered from the deep walls at Kauffman, and since neither are particularly fast, this change should help both slug a little more. Conversely, it could hurt their XBH total, but I’m assuming both will hit significantly more homers because of this change. According to Statcast’s expected home runs by park feature, Pasquantino would’ve had the fifth-fewest homers in the league last year if he’d played all his games at Kauffman. The only lower ones are Boston (weird right-field dimensions), Minnesota (high wall in right-field if I had to guess), St. Louis (no idea), San Francisco (no explanation needed). As an extreme pull-hitter, the right-field wall being brought in by any amount will vastly improve his HR total.

Of my lesser impact breakout candidates are the pair of pitchers Kansas City received in the head-scratching Freddy Fermin trade last year: Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Both project to be back-of-the-rotation arms, but should supplement a very deep rotation. Of course, with Ragans and Bubic at the top of the rotation, everything else is just the cherry on top. I’ve been high on Ragans for a while and, as an objective fan, I hope he stays healthy this year. As a Guardians fan, I hope he puts up a 5 ERA. Circling back to the dimension change subject, I do think Lugo takes a big step back this year. He has vastly overperformed his expected stats each year he’s been in Kansas City, and with his barrel rate getting continuously worse, I’m not sure he makes it through an entire year at MLB with them. But, having Ragans-Bubic-Wacha-Cameron-Bergert is not a bad rotation to fall back on. In fact, there’s a decent chance that’s the best performing rotation in the division. Of course, it helps having an all-world defensive shortstop behind you.

Per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource Tool, this is what the Royals’ lineup should look like:

C – Salvador Perez/Carter Jensen

1B – Vinnie Pasquantino

2B – Jonathan India/Michael Massey

3B – Maikel Garcia

SS – Bobby Witt Jr.

LF – Isaac Collins (acq. from MIL for LHRP Angel Zerpa)

CF – Kyle Isbel/Starling Marte/Lane Thomas

RF – Jac Caglianone

DH – Carter Jensen/Perez

That’s a really, really good lineup, albeit there are some question marks. But what is an AL Central team without question marks? That lineup could very easily have 7 above-average hitters (save for India & Isbel).

Isaac Collins was a decent acquisition for them, and although I don’t think he’ll be as good in 2026 as he was in 2025, he’s a massive improvement from the corner outfielders they trotted out last year. I’m also not as high on Caglianone as some are but, again, an improvement. They’re one of the few teams to consistently have as bad or worse outfield productions than the Guardians, but they’ve addressed that need pretty well recently.

My biggest concern is the bullpen, particularly the closing role. They traded for LHRP Matt Strahm from the Phillies in December, acquired Nick Mears in the Collins-Zerpa trade, and of course still have Lucas Erceg, but seem content with running out Carlos Estevez for the 9th again. Bad idea. Estevez should, under no circumstance, see the 9th this year. They have too much backend depth to risk Estevez blowing games. Either let Erceg run with the closer role, or platoon it between him and Strahm. Both have enough leverage experience to succeed in that role. Estevez has been flat-out awful in Spring Training. His velocity is down about 5 (FIVE!!!) miles per hour across the board. His fastball is down below 89 (EIGHTY-NINE!!!) miles per hour. Not gonna work. He does not have a single pitch above average in Stuff+ in Spring Training (credit @TJStats on X). He’s not controlling any of his pitches (34% zone%), and is giving up loud contact (11th percentile barrel%, 15th hard-hit%). Pair that with an abysmal ground-ball rate, and he is going to get rocked. I do think they probably should have gone after another reliever in free agency. That, particularly, concerns me for them. Because of that, I’m assuming Estevez will get the 9th to start the year based off his track record, and will inevitably be eclipsed by either Erceg or Strahm if he can’t get his velocity back up.

The bullpen is going to be the biggest question mark for this team in 2026, but it’s also the easiest thing to fix. I expect them to be active at the deadline in targeting, well, anyone. I doubt that the reliever market at this year’s deadline will be nearly as robust as last year’s (hard to beat Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran, David Bednar, Kyle Finnegan, Ryan Helsley, Camilo Doval, and Tyler Rogers), but they should still be able to pick someone up.

Prediction:

The Royals win 90+ games and win the division. I assume they trade for multiple relievers at the deadline, and that helps bolster their 2nd half fortunes despite the Tigers (who I assume will come in 2nd) having a very easy schedule to close out the season.

The Toronto Blue Jays went from finishing last in the AL East (74-88) in 2024 to being one inning away from a World Series title last season.

The Jays won the division (94-68) with a tiebreaker over the Yankees before securing the American League crown in 2025. The Orioles, after finishing 75-87 last season, can look directly at their division opponent for a template to follow in 2026.

Additions and Subtractions

The Blue Jays have leveled up in the MLB payroll standings over the last few seasons. According to Spotrac, Toronto is one of only five teams with a tax payroll that exceeds $300 million. The Jays are being assessed a 30% tax for exceeding the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.

The Orioles took some heat for not landing one of the available frontline starters. The Jays cannot receive the same criticism after inking free agent Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal. Is that a deal you would have liked to see Mike Elias pull the trigger on? It doesn’t matter now. Cease will be suiting up for a division opponent.

Cease will join a talented rotation that features former Oriole Kevin Gausman, 22-year-old phenom Trey Yesavage, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, Cy-Young winner Shane Bieber, newcomer Cody Ponce (three years, $30-million), and former All-Star José Berríos. The unit will not include former Blue Jay Chris Bassitt who signed a one-year deal with the O’s.

The bullpen will still include almost-Oriole Jeff Hoffman, but it also gained a boost from the signing of Tyler Rogers. Rogers posted a 1.98 ERA over 81 games between the Giants and Mets last year. Bassitt provided valuable relief for the Jays in the postseason, but Hoffman failed to convert a championship save.

Similar to Baltimore, Toronto’s crowded rotation could provide some help to a bullpen facing some uncertainty. However, Bieber will begin the season on the IL, and the Jays are expected to slow play Yesavage to some extent.

Toronto’s biggest loss of the offseason came when fan favorite Bo Bichette signed with the Mets. New York gave the 28-year-old $126 million over three years to play on the left side of the infield.

The Jays inked an intriguing international product to help offset the loss of Bichette. Corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year, $60-million deal that does not include opt-outs. Okamoto arrived with significant power but some concerns regarding his ability to make contact in the big leagues.

The Japanese slugger will look to provide a boost to an offense led by Vlad Guerrero. Unfortunately, the team expects to be without former Oriole Anthony Santander for a majority of the season. Santander signed a five year, $92.5 million deal ahead of last season, but he hit .175 over 194 at bats last year. Santander underwent shoulder surgery in February.

Projections

PECOTA: 89-73 (Win AL East)

FanGraphs: 85-77 (Second in AL East)

I’m not breaking any news when I say the AL East is a tough division. The Jays nearly beat the Dodgers in the World Series last season, but a repeat division title is hardly a sure thing. The Yankees are expected to be a factor, and the Red Sox have a real chance at another Wild Card appearance.

Toronto and New York both won 94 games last season. Unfortunately, both teams featured winning records against the Orioles. A contending Baltimore could bring the magic number in the AL East down to the low 90s.

The Jays look far better than their last place club from 2024, but last year proved that records can be volatile from year to year. Toronto should be considered a legitimate postseason contender, but its ceiling could hinge upon guys like Cease, Okamato, Yesavage and Hoffman reaching their full potential.