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We had noted last week that we’d likely see AJ Smith-Shawver rejoin the team during this week’s four-city road trip, and this has come to pass: not only have the Braves have recalled the 23-year old right-hander, he’s slated to start tomorrow’s Twins series finale. Chris Sale will shift to start the makeup game versus the White Sox.

AJSS back in the rotation, we all cheered. However, we still have Walt Weiss on record sticking with Grant Holmes and musing on if AJ would be the one best suited for the bullpen. We hope it’s not true, but time will tell.

The corresponding move for Smith-Shawver is saying farewell to Tyler Kinley. The Kinley experience truly had its ups and downs, and now this chapter concludes with being designated for assignment. We’ll see if he’s another candidate for the Carrasco/Hernandez cycle.

If anything can pierce through the droning noise of JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart's names as they're muttered over and over as the supposed leaders in the National Rookie of the Year race, perhaps it is the sound of Mets right fielder Carson Benge's throws to home plate made on Monday night at Citi Field as they whizzed through the air.

In the first inning against the Padres, Benge came up firing from right field twice. On both occasions, he nailed a San Diego runner trying to score. His second outfield assist, which was clocked at 103.9 mph, capped the frame and sent the crowd of just over 27,000 into a frenzy.

The reaction from Gary Cohen up in SNY's TV booth was a mix of excitement and bewilderment: "Are you kidding me? Stop running on him!" 

As a former pitcher, Benge's arm in the outfield is a serious weapon.

His arm value is in the 95th percentile, with his arm strength in the 99th percentile, via Baseball Savant. And it's Benge's arm that has been grabbing most of the headlines lately.

But he's also been doing serious damage at the plate, hitting .304/.368/.461 (.829 OPS) in 212 plate appearances over the last two months while raising his OPS for the season to .750 and his OPS+ to 109.

So why is Benge viewed as being a distant third in the Rookie of the Year race?

The odds via BetMGM look like this:

JJ Wetherholt: -160
Sal Stewart: +140
Carson Benge: +1400

The betting market and narrative don't align with what's actually happening on the field, with Benge having a higher OPS+ than Wetherholt (109 to 107) and closing in on Stewart (119 OPS+), who doesn't provide nearly as much value defensively as Benge and Wetherholt.

When it comes to Wetherholt, it seems like he was simply anointed the winner after a hot start with the Cardinals that resulted in having an .856 OPS at the end of April.

But since May 1, Wetherholt is hitting just .239/.338/.340 (.678 OPS) in 399 plate appearances.

What makes Wetherholt a unique candidate for ROY is that his second base defense has been spectacular, with him in the 100th percentile and worth 22 OAA, via Baseball Savant -- albeit at a position that is not valued very highly.

As far as Stewart, his power is his best attribute, and he's already smacked 26 homers in 125 games for the Reds. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's offense has taken a step back since a hot start that had his OPS sitting at .943 entering May.

Since then, Stewart is slashing .251/.320/.442. That's still strong production, especially for a rookie catcher. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's hot start built the Rookie of the Year narrative for him.

Defensively, Stewart has been a tick above average when it comes to OAA (+1), but his arm strength (20th percentile) ranks near the bottom of the league.

Benge's season -- at least offensively -- has been the opposite of Wetherholt and Stewart, with him starting incredibly slowly before coming on strong.

After his first three weeks in the majors, Benge was struggling badly, with a triple slash of .136/.219/.197. And he looked a bit overmatched. But the Mets chose to let him work through it instead of sending him to the minors, and the results have spoken for themselves.

Since April 23, Benge is hitting .296/.355/.452 (.807 OPS) with 13 homers, 15 doubles, 46 RBI, and 57 runs scored. So while he's taken it up another notch since June 18 (as mentioned above), Benge has been terrific offensively for roughly four months.

Benge's arm has rated nearly as well as Wetherholt's range/OAA does, but Benge's range/OAA has been just a tick above average (in the 54th percentile), due in part to some misplays earlier this season. That number has improved recently, and better play from Benge in that area down the stretch would make his ROY case even stronger.

Another key metric to watch in the ROY race is wRC+, which measures a hitter's overall offensive value while taking his contributions at the plate and translating them to his impact on runs created for his team.

Here's how things break down in terms of wRC+:

Sal Stewart: 114 Carson Benge: 112 JJ Wetherholt: 107

Given the narrative surrounding the award, it might take a continued surge by Benge and more regression from Wetherholt and Stewart in order for Benge to snag it.

But Benge's name should be firmly in the conversation with the two of them -- not some kind of distant afterthought.

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This is the week that I get back into the black after a great run across August with MLB player props and cashing home run predictions, and what better day to go big than on Dinger Tuesday.

How does one leave Pete Crow-Armstrong off the home run card after last night’s performance, and with today’s matchup? Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu is the unstoppable force, and Merrill Kelly is the movable object.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+330
Wilyer Abreu	+425

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong

I don't mind going chalk when that chalk is MVP betting favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just hit a walk-off extra-inning dinger last night to reach the 30/30 mark and is being priced on the good side of $3. PCA should be shorter than +300 in any matchup that isn't against an elite starter.

Today is anything but an elite starter, as the White Sox are going with lefty opener Bryan Hutson before handing things over to right-hander Erick Fedde, who just lost his rotation spot and is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, ranking 37th-worst in HardHit% among MLB starters and 21st-worst in Blast Contact%.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and PCA will see some very hittable arms to keep padding those MVP numbers.

He is a buy to +290 today.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: TBS

Home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+425)

It's tough to find a hotter hitter this month than Boston's Wilyer Abreu. The lefty bat leads the league in slugging and xwOBA in August, and sits second in ISO. The HardHit% over that stretch is at a Dinger-sexy 62.5%, which is only behind three other hitters. The form is there, and the matchup is the deciding factor.

Merrill Kelly has been hit hard all season and ranks in the Bottom 25 in HR/FB and HR/9 among MLB starters. He is one of a handful of pitchers who rank in the Bottom 25 in all four of my favorite fade categories: HR/9, HR/FB, HardHit%, and BlastCont%. 

It's a great price in an average matchup, but this is elite form vs. a hard-hit pitcher and a number I'd buy to +350.  

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, DBACKS.TV

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Between the sign stealing scheme of recent years, the steroid/PED news cycles of the past couple decades, and the many other scandals through the history of the sport, cheating has always been a hot topic in baseball. Very few of the scandals are as amusing as the “spitball.”

For one, the spitball was legal for quite a while, and even when it was made illegal, some guys were still allowed to use it. While altering the baseball clearly can benefit a starter, the idea of it happening via old fashioned saliva is just an amusing mental image.

One of the fathers of the spitball was Burleigh Grimes, who did have a very brief Yankees’ stint. With today being his birthday, let’s look back at the life and times of “Ol’ Stubblebeard.”

Burleigh Arland Grimes
Born: August 18, 1893 (Emerald, WI)
Died: December 6, 1985 (Clear Lake, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1934

Grimes was born in Wisconsin in 1893. When the pitcher was still quite young, Grimes’ father passed away, leaving his mother struggling to try and support their family. Eventually, Grimes himself had to help and got a long and strenuous job at a lumber camp. He very nearly died when one stack of logs fell on him, but through good fortune he survived without major injury.

However, Grimes’ love was for baseball, and he developed an affinity for one particular aspect early. Before his early death, Grimes’ father, who had played for several local teams himself, taught young Burleigh how to play. He also had a formative experience while attending a minor league game in neighboring Minnesota. He was dazzled by pitcher Hank Gehring, who was a proponent of the spitball, which was then still legal. Grimes went home and began to practice and tinker with using the spitball in his own game.

Eventually, Grimes became good enough that professional teams began to take notice. When he was 18, he signed his first deal with a Class D minor league team in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Over the next couple years, he worked his way up, playing for a variety of minor league teams, and generally impressing on the mound. The Tigers held his rights at one point, but they were eventually sold to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who called him up in late 1916.

Grimes spent his first two major league seasons in Pittsburgh. He was a bit up and down and walk happy, so after the 1917 season, the Pirates included him in a trade to the then-Brooklyn Robins. The headliner at the time was the other pitcher Pittsburgh sent to Brooklyn, Al Mamaux, and included future Yankees’ manager Casey Stengel going the other way. But Grimes ended up being the biggest piece of the deal when things were all said and done.

In 1918, Grimes hit the ground running in Brooklyn, posting a 2.13 ERA (130 ERA+) in 270 innings. He took a bit of a step back the following year, but did spend a bit of time away from baseball, serving in the Navy during World War II. He then responded with dominant campaigns in 1920 and ‘21. He would’ve been a Cy Young contender in both seasons had the award existed then.

Grimes soon became a master of the spitball, which he accentuated by chewing slippery elm, saying:

I used to chew slippery elm – the bark, right off the tree. Come spring the bark would get nice and loose and you could slice it free without any trouble. What I checked was the fiber from inside, and that’s what I put on the ball. The ball would break like hell, away from right-handers and in on lefties.

MLB did actually officially ban the spitball following the 1919 season, but a group of pitchers were grandfathered in and could continue using it until their careers ended. Originally, the spitball was set to be banned outright, but Grimes was among those to lead a campaign against this, leading to the grandfathering in. Grimes would be the longest lasting of that group, not retiring until 1934.

Besides the spitball, Grimes could also be a bit ornery on the mound. He was known to throw brush back pitches at opposing batters and purportedly once threw at a hitter who was in the on deck circle. While some disputed this, he could also be somewhat aloof, and had a bad relationship with Dodgers’ manager Wilbur Robinson, who would send others over to talk to the pitcher.

Grimes helped the Dodgers to the 1920 World Series, where they lost with the pitcher struggling a bit in his three starts. While Grimes himself remained mostly good, Brooklyn didn’t get back to the Fall Classic in the next couple years. The team and the player also regularly bickered over salary, and Brooklyn eventually decided to move him to the cross-town New York Giants.

Over the next couple years, despite success in the meantime, Grimes became a bit of a journeyman. He spent just one year with the Giants before going back to the Pirates, where he had two of his career best years in 1928 and ’29. However, more salary disputes led to Pittsburgh trading him to the Boston Braves. He had a bad run there, leading to the Braves trading him to the St. Louis Cardinals. In St. Louis, Grimes got back on track and helped them to the 1930 World Series. Grimes performed much better in that World Series, but his team fell to the Athletics. However, the Cardinals won the NL pennant again the following season, and Grimes put in an arguable MVP performance in the 1931 Fall Classic. He had a 2.02 ERA in his two starts, including allowing just two runs in a Game 7 victory, winning his first and only World Series title.

Despite that, the Cardinals had a loaded rotation and ended up trading Grimes to the Cubs. In Chicago, he helped the Cubs topple the Cardinals in the NL in 1932, but they fell in the World Series to the Yankees in the series that featured the Babe Ruth “called shot.”

Partway through the 1933 season, Grimes was released and returned to the Cardinals. Partway through the following season, he was again released and this time signed with the Yankees. Grimes’ Yankee stint wasn’t particularly notable, as he had a 5.50 ERA in 10 appearances out of the bullpen. His signing was almost certainly just an attempt to see if “Ol’ Stubblebeard” — a nickname gained from Grimes’ habit of not shaving on days he was pitching — still had anything left in the tank. The Yankees also released him, and Grimes returned back to the Pirates, where his MLB career ended following the 1934 season.

After ending his playing career, Grimes remained in baseball. He had a successful run as a minor league manager, earning him the big job with his old Brooklyn Dodgers team in 1937. His Brooklyn teams finished well under .500 in both seasons before they let him go. After further minors managing jobs, he became a scout and a coach for several teams, including back with the Yankees from 1947-52.

Grimes eventually retired back to his native Wisconsin, where he resided until his death in 1985. Before that, he got the honor of being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1964 via the Veterans Committee. You can definitely debate whether his Hall status is warranted, but there’s no doubt that he was a very big figure in baseball for many years.

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The National League MVP odds race is shaping up for a thrilling finish, as Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a legitimate contender to dethrone Shohei Ohtani, who has won three straight MVPs (one in the AL, two in the NL) since 2023.

The current odds at Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, have PCA and Ohtani as a virtual coin flip, with both players listed at 50% probability. However, the Chicago Cubs outfielder has a slightly higher cost at 51.7 cents.

If the season ended today, I'd pick PCA, but it's admittedly a narrow margin. This is especially the case after both players brought their best selves to the ballpark on Monday night.

Odds to win 2026 NL MVP 

Player
Pete Crow-Armstrong	-107
Shohei Ohtani	+100

Odds last updated on 8-18. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.

The NL MVP odds have fluctuated over the last several weeks. Shohei Ohtani has been favored across the board, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has gradually gained ground.

At the end of July, Ohtani was -156 to win NL MVP, and PCA was +186. That has flipped, and the pair are almost equal to earn the honors.

PCA leads MLB with 2.2 WAR since the All-Star Game, while Ohtani hasn't pitched in nearly two months, limiting his edge.

PCA vs Ohtani: A statistical breakdown

Stat	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Shohei Ohtani
Home runs	30	29
RBI	78	78
Runs scored	89	81
AVG	.281	.295
OPS	.929	.948
SB	31	7
ERA	N/A	1.79
Pitcher strikeouts	N/A	95
Defensive runs saved	14	1
Outs above average	23	N/A
FanGraphs WAR	8.2	7

The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong

Remember when the Chicago Cubs traded half a season of Javier Baez for outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong? New York Mets fans do.

This is the worst-case scenario for trading a top prospect. While PCA's ceiling was always through the roof, you never really know what you're going to get from a 20-year-old who was drafted out of high school, especially during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

After barely playing in the Mets' organization, PCA immediately flourished for the Cubs, eventually reaching the majors to wrap up the 2023 season. His results were poor, but the future remained bright. He was fine in 2024, showcasing elite speed and defense while scuffling at the plate. He then had a red-hot first half of 2025 before cratering in the summer months.

The question became: will he adjust?

If you are into fantasy baseball, you know there was a lot of skepticism. His highs were bound to be high, a true five-tool talent offering speed and newfound power (he hit 31 home runs and stole 35 bases in 2025), but he also seemed to be a very streaky player.

Well, he seems to have adjusted. He's striking out more, yes, but he's also increased his walk rate by more than 7% year over year. He's aggressive but also selective. And while the .349 BABIP is very high, he's also extremely fast, able to beat out grounders that otherwise might send him back to the dugout.

He's built for the moment. After Shohei Ohtani clubbed two home runs in a game against the Colorado Rockies (at Coors Field, natch), PCA came through in the clutch at Wrigley Field against the crosstown White Sox on Monday night. 

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG

WALK-OFF HOME RUN FOR 30/30 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TSUSXmb8vi

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Huge. He led off the game with his 29th homer and capped it off with a walk-off blast, sending the Wrigley faithful into hysterics.

Offensively, the tale of the tape remains very similar for the two superstars. But I ultimately give PCA the edge because of the defense.

He is the best defensive center fielder in MLB. Ohtani only plays the field when he pitches. When Ohtani won NL MVP as a designated hitter, becoming the first DH ever to win, he hit a career-high 54 home runs while slashing .310/.390/.646. He was undeniable.

Ohtani's offense is really good this year. It'd be disingenuous to say otherwise. But he's not overwhelmingly superior, which opens the door for PCA, who combines similar/equal offensive numbers with truly elite glovework.

The case for Shohei Ohtani

For as good as PCA has been, it still feels somewhat contrarian to take him over Ohtani. That the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way phenom has pitched at all this season, and as effectively as he has, could be seen as enough. Crow-Armstrong is an elite fielder. Even if he's the best, there are several excellent defensive players throughout MLB.

No one other than Ohtani both pitches and hits at a high level of competency. Not now, and not really ever. Not like this.

Before a lingering knee injury pushed Ohtani back to full-time DH duties, he posted a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings over 14 starts. He was even better over his first 10 starts, boasting a 0.74 ERA while allowing zero earned runs six times. 

He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate. 

Even with the diminished results in his other four starts, Ohtani finished six innings each time. Had he stayed on the mound, I don't think this debate would even happen, and that could be interpreted as an argument in his favor. His numbers are simply too good to allow a technicality to disqualify him. 

Voting against Ohtani may be perceived as a result of voter fatigue, with baseball writers looking for any reason to go elsewhere for the NL's top honor, bored by "The Unicorn's" sustained excellence. 

The final verdict

The NL MVP battle is heating up 🔥

-Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2 homers (walk-off HR), 4 hits
-Shohei Ohtani: 2 homers, 4 hits

Both earned Player of the Game honors!

(MLB x Primo Brands) pic.twitter.com/mdiBvTGUFR

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Ultimately, I don't buy the "voter fatigue" argument. If Ohtani were hitting at the same level as his DH MVP campaign, then he'd be the clear front-runner. Likewise, if Ohtani were able to pitch at a high level for the entire season with his current offensive production, it's a no-brainer.

But neither of those things has come to fruition to this point. 

Defense is historically underrated, and PCA wouldn't have a snowball's chance in Hell at winning if his bat wasn't doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

A lot can change in a month and a half, and if Crow-Armstrong runs into a streaky stretch like the one that torpedoed the second half of his 2025 season, Ohtani will win. If Ohtani can get back on the mound in late August or early September, that will also make threading the needle difficult for PCA.

But as last night showed, Pete Crow-Armstrong is game to match Ohtani swing for swing right now. And that, plus his otherworldly defense in arguably baseball's most important position, is enough for me to favor him here. 

Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-107 at Polymarket)

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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The St. Louis Cardinals head into tonight's clash with the Cincinnati Reds as a-113 moneyline favorite at Great American Ball Park, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. 

With Kyle Leahy in impressive form, my Cardinals vs. Reds predictions expect St. Louis to come out on top.

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Reds today: Cardinals moneyline (-116)

Kyle Leahy continues to throw the ball well for the St. Louis Cardinals. He owns a 2.55 FIP across his last five starts, allowing just 0.64 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9 while consistently pounding the strike zone.

He’s also facing a Cincinnati Reds offense in horrible shape. Cincinnati has posted a 64 wRC+ across its last eight games with a .140 ISO.

As for Andrew Abbott, his 4.50 xERA over the last month is manageable, but the lefty has struggled with command, walking 5.14 hitters per nine innings. The Cardinals are also swinging it well with a 105 wRC+ over the last week.

St. Louis has the edge on the mound and at the dish.

Play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals have been slightly better against left-handed pitching, posting a 98 wRC+ compared to a 95 mark vs. right-handers. That gives St. Louis a small matchup boost against Abbott.

Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)

The Under is looking like the play here. Cincinnati is struggling offensively, and Leahy is in strong enough form to take advantage. The Cardinals’ bullpen has also held its own, posting a 4.06 FIP over the last week.

The Cards may be doing more at the plate, but they will have it tough once Abbott departs. Cincinnati’s relief corps is dealing, owning a 3.29 FIP over its last 29 2/3 frames. The Reds have limited the long ball during that span, too.

With Cincinnati’s lineup ice cold and both bullpens capable of limiting damage, this contest should stay relatively low-scoring.

Play this pick to -120.

Cardinals vs Reds home run prediction: Joshua Baez (+442)

Joshua Baez homered three times in his MLB debut, and all of those bombs came off left-hander Matthew Boyd. While the youngster hasn't done much since that contest, the success against lefties is hard to ignore with Abbott taking the hill. 

Also, 58.3% of his contact has been in the air since being promoted to the big leagues, and Baez has a 75% hard-hit rate. Abbott has allowed 1.22 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season, and a 51.5% fly ball rate. 

This matchup is a great chance for Baez to smack No. 4. 

Cardinals vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks excellent tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 79°F to 72°F through the evening. Winds are extremely light around 1–3 mph, and rain chances sit at 0%. Conditions should be clean and neutral, with no delay concern or major weather impact.

Cardinals vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals -113 | Reds +108
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+144) | Reds +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-100)

Cardinals vs Reds trend

The Reds have hit the Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Reds.

How to watch Cardinals vs Reds and game info

Cardinals vs Reds latest injuries

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The first-place Milwaukee Brewers are priced as a -150 moneyline favorite tonight against the Seattle Mariners, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field. 

With Kyle Harrison in top form at home this season, my Mariners vs. Brewers predictions are backing him to silence Seattle while getting run support. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Mariners vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-155)

The Seattle Mariners send Bryce Miller to the hill, and he is still looking to find his form. The righty owns a 4.45 FIP across his last two starts while giving up 1.64 HR/9, and his monthly FIP sits at 5.71.

The Milwaukee Brewers aren't in great offensive shape, but the Brewers are much better at home with a 111 wRC+, compared to a 95 road mark.

Kyle Harrison has a 4.01 xERA over his last two appearances, but has been a completely different pitcher at American Family Field, posting a 2.14 home FIP compared to a 4.87 mark on the road.

Harrison should bring his best, and Milwaukee can capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles.

Play this pick to -160.

COVERS INTEL: Miller has a 4.66 FIP on the road, compared to a 2.88 mark at T-Mobile Park. That gives Milwaukee's lineup another advantage. 

Mariners vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)

This total sits at 7.5, and it's low enough to hammer the Over. Milwaukee’s offense has been cold lately with a 74 wRC+ over its last six games, but theBrewers are much better at home, which gives them a path against a struggling Miller.

Seattle’s offense is also in solid form, posting a 122 wRC+ over the last week. Harrison has been better at American Family Field, but the Mariners are seeing the ball well enough to contribute.

The bullpen edge is not overwhelming either, with Seattle’s relief corps owning a 4.55 FIP over the last two weeks.

Play this pick to -130.

Mariners vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+474)

Jackson Chourio has gone deep four times in his last 13 contests, and he carries a 60% hard-hit rate and 17.1% barrel rate during that span.

Chourio is always a dangerous hitter, but he's thrived against right-handers. He's hit 12 of his 17 bombs off righties. 

He's clubbed that same number of bombs at home this season, and Miller's HR issues lately are evident. The Mariners' bullpen has also surrendered 1.67 HR/9 across the last two weeks, giving Chourio another path to leaving the yard when Miller departs. 

Mariners vs Brewers weather

Weather at American Family Field looks messy early, with rain chances around 54% at 7 p.m. ET before gradually dropping later in the night. Temperatures sit in the low 70s with moderate winds, but the retractable roof could easily neutralize those conditions.

Mariners vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +144 | Brewers -150
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-156) | Brewers -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Mariners vs Brewers trend

The Mariners have hit the Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Brewers.

How to watch Mariners vs Brewers and game info

Mariners vs Brewers latest injuries

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With a vulnerable arm on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Boston Red Sox sit as a heavy -156 moneyline favorite for tonight's clash at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

My Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions see no issues with Boston grabbing another convincing victory behind left-hander Ranger Suarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Red Sox today: Red Sox -1.5 (+129)

The Boston Red Sox should be looking forward to this matchup with Merrill Kelly taking the bump for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been very hittable lately, posting a 6.36 FIP over his last two starts while surrendering 1.69 HR/9.

Kelly is also hurting himself with walks, issuing 4.44 BB/9 over the last month.

The Red Sox have cooled off a bit offensively, but they just exploded for 11 runs Monday, and Boston still owns a 125 wRC+ over its previous 15 contests.

Ranger Suarez should provide stability. The left-hander owns a 3.19 FIP at Fenway Park in 2026 and a 3.39 FIP over his previous four appearances.

Boston’s offense can create separation.

Play this pick to +110.

COVERS INTEL: Arizona’s offense has traveled poorly this season, posting an 88 wRC+ on the road compared to a 103 mark at Chase Field. That gives Suarez a cleaner matchup and strengthens Boston’s path to separation at Fenway.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)

After the Over comfortably hit on Monday, I'm eyeing it again. 

The Red Sox are still smashing baseballs, and Arizona’s bullpen is shaky, which means more runs are possible when Kelly exits. The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has a 5.33 xERA over the last week while allowing 1.40 HR/9.

Boston’s bullpen has been a lot steadier during that span with a 3.17 FIP, but Suarez isn’t untouchable. The Diamondbacks’ offense is also above league average right now, and if the Sox score as much as I expect, Arizona won’t need to chip in much for this contest to cash the Over.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox home run prediction: Willson Contreras (+474)

Willson Contreras has been showing his power lately. He's gone yard twice in his last six games while posting a .381 ISO during that span. This matchup against Kelly also screams value. 

While it's not a huge sample size, Contreras is 7-for-13 lifetime vs. Kelly with three doubles and a home run. Kelly is having major trouble with the long ball, and the majority of Contreras' homers have been against RHPs.

Kelly has also given up 1.38 HR/9 on the road. 

Play this pick to -130.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather

Weather at Fenway Park looks mild and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting around 73°F at first pitch before dipping to 71°F later. Winds are light around 3–5 mph, and rain chances stay low near 10–13%. Overall, conditions look fairly neutral with no major delay concern.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +150 | Red Sox -156
• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) | Red Sox -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have covered the run line in 30 of their last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.

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The Texas Rangers, despite their sub-.500 record, continue to be in the Wild Card race, and are currently tied with Detroit and Baltimore for the third Wild Card spot, as well as being just two games out in the American League West.

In our latest Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked, in a playoff series, who would you want to see as the #3 starter for the Rangers, behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi?

(And yes, deGrom left his most recent start with a triceps issue and Eovaldi is on the injured list, but we are assuming both are healthy and are going 1-2 in a playoff series.)

While he’s only been back off the injured list for a short period of time, almost half of you went with Cody Bradford as your pick. MacKenzie Gore got a little over a quarter of the vote, with about one in six of you opting for Jack Leiter.

And I have to say, there was a surprising amount of support for Cal Quantrill…

This has been brought to you by FanDuel.

Over the last few days, the future of the Nats shortstop position has been discussed very heavily following CJ Abrams’ move to second base. For the rest of the season it seems like Nasim Nunez will be the team’s primary shortstop. Honestly, that is not an idea I am thrilled about given Nunez’s lack of production.

Even with Abrams at second base, I believe that the Nats have a better answer at the shortstop position in Seaver King. This weekend when I was in Rochester, King’s bat looked big league ready. However, in Spencer Nusbaum’s recent sourced piece, he theorized that Nunez’s glove could provide more value in each of the next two seasons.

Nunez does have a good glove, but I do not buy the idea of him being an everyday option past this season. The bat is not good enough for Nunez to be an everyday player. On the season, Nunez has a 67 wRC+, meaning he is about 33% worse than even the average hitter. To have that kind of production in the lineup nearly every day, your defense has to be perfect. Nunez has good defense, but he has been pretty mistake prone this season with 13 errors. 

Simply put, the batted ball data is ugly. His 84.9 MPH average exit velocity is lower than Max Scherzer’s in 2021, the last year where pitchers hit. After showing flashes of power at the end of last season, that has totally evaporated in 2026. His .265 slugging percentage is one of the lowest numbers you will ever see. Sure, it is not Nunez’s job to slug, but there also needs to be a certain floor you have to hit.

This season, Nunez is not reaching that offensive floor. His .578 OPS is the worst among all qualified hitters this season. For me, that is a sign that he is being overplayed and his skills are being overextended. Nasim Nunez in small doses can be effective, but it is just not working as an everyday player.

Interestingly, the two WAR models disagree pretty heavily about Nunez. Baseball Reference has Nunez at a 2.1 WAR, which is actually quite solid. However, Fangraphs has him at 0.7 wins above replacement. 

Personally, I think the truth is a lot closer to Fangraphs assessment, but that is up for interpretation. Second base defense has value, but I struggle to see how very good but not quite Gold Glove caliber second base defense and great baserunning get you to 2 WAR with that bat.

I am actually curious to see how Nunez does at shortstop to finish the season. Everyone seems to assume he will be a great defender, but I am not 100% sure. We know Nunez can make exceptional plays like the one he made against the Cubs on Opening Week. However, he has been shaky at short when he has played there.

It has been a small sample size, but Nunez has already made 4 errors at short this year and has -3 outs above average at the position. Once he is playing the position every day, I think those numbers will improve, but the question is how much.

Nunez can’t just be an average defender at short, he needs to be great. His lack of offensive ability gives him very little margin for error on the bases and in the field. Nunez is very good in those two areas, but I would like to see a bit more consistency.

On the bases, it has felt like Nunez has been getting a little sloppy lately. He had an incredible run on the bases to start the year and still leads the majors in steals. However, in the last two months, Nunez has 8 steals but has been caught 4 times. In August, Nunez only has one steal and has been caught twice. With a .368 OPS and .133 average this month, the opportunity just has not been there.

Nunez brings good vibes and has clear athletic ability. I think he has a spot on a big league roster. However, this is just not a player that I value in an everyday role. The only reason I would keep Seaver King down is concern about the looming lockout. If King is on the 40-man, he will not be able to play minor league games next season during a potential lockout.

I do not buy the idea that Nunez can be a long term bridge to Eli Willits though. At the start of next season, the Nats should have King as the starting shortstop with Abrams at second, assuming he is still around. Nunez can be on the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. However, this season has shown us that he is not a viable everyday option.

It can be thrown around a bit too often, but that game certainly felt like playoff baseball. You can slice it, dice it, stir it, and shake it, but no matter how you spin it, through four games these White Sox have given the Cubs all they can handle. The games have been old fashioned pier six brawls. The Cubs jumped out early and for three innings this felt like a lovely night at the park. But the Sox added three in the fourth to take the lead. The Cubs got two back in the fifth to retake the lead. But then the Sox got two in the eighth to take it one more time. There was scoring in six of the 10 innings of this game, but in no inning did both teams score.

WPA loves a good momentum swing. So there was WPA flying all over the place in this one. I’ll write more tomorrow about the WPA from this one as the numbers often swing between the time I’m writing about them and the following morning when Al is editing and posting. As I’m writing, there were 11 events that swung the win probability of this game by more than 10 percent (and two more that would round to 10). WPA recorded 90 events in the game, so on 11 percent of the plays in the game, the win probability changed by 10 percent or more. That’s wild. Four of those swings were by 25 percent or more. Nico Hoerner was at the plate for two of those four. And that’s how Nico Hoerner stole a Superhero from the one most of you probably had in your head.

I do this on a daily basis and I know I was thinking of Pete Crow-Armstrong as I was pre-writing in my head. A walk-off homer will overshadow a whole game. A walk-off homer after a first pitch of the game homer? That’s a 70-year occurrence. Well, it’s been that long since it happened. Being fair, it’s more likely to happen going forward than it was going backwards. Power hitters didn’t often lead off until the modern game. The two National League front runners for MVP both lead off for their respective teams that are expected to make deep playoff runs.

In fairness, Pete did generate a lot of WPA. A lead-off homer in a more than 10 percent event (10.1% percent). A walk-off homer is a significant event. It’s crazy that a walk-off homer in extra innings isn’t a bigger event. But, it’s a little less than 20 percent. In part, modern baseball tilts it so much that in extra inning game, if you don’t allow a run in the top of the inning, you have to feel like you are a very good bet to win the game. That’s exactly how WPA sees it. I couldn’t readily find statistics, but a significant majority of games that do go extra innings go exactly one extra inning. The Cubs and Sox each played their 17th extra inning game Monday night. The Sox have gone past 10, doing it recently with the Red Sox(13). Two Cubs game have gone 11. The White Sox have actually had five go more than 10.

The White Sox are experiencing just a few growing pains. They are 7-10 in extra innings, 28-35 on the road and 15-18 against the NL. There’s some randomness in extra innings to be sure. But it helps to have veteran guys who know their role. Jacob Webb will be another unsung hero for the Cubs in this one, gritting through the 10th inning. Winning on the road is tricky too. Winning against the other league has a lot to do with adapting quickly to players you haven’t seen much of. When they figure those things out, that team can be a handful. This is a very good win.

My three stars are going to be exactly the three guys we talked about up here. Pete Crow-Armstrong, good evening and then good night. Nico Hoerner, two momentum swinging hits in one game. A wild two-run single in the fifth turned a one-run deficit into a one-run lead (with a little help from an errant Sox throw). An enormous one-out, RBI single in the ninth to keep the game alive. Jacob Webb picks up a win for surviving the 10th. It’s so hard to avoid a run with the ghost runner. He issued two walks, but got two huge strikeouts and a weak grounder, getting credit essentially for all three outs. As always, in these razor thin margins, just about every positive contribution was absolutely vital to the win. So hat tip to all of the other key contributors. But I do think these three stand a fair bit ahead of the rest.

Game 126, August 17: Cubs 7, White Sox 5 (73-53)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.797). 4-5, 2 RBI
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.372). 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R, SB
• Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.311). IP, 5 BF, 2 BB, 2 K (W 5-2)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.422). IP, 6 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, K
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.232). 1-5, R
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.211). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s single with runners on first and second and one out in the ninth, the Cubs down one. He tied the game. (.492)

White Sox Play of the Game: Andrew Benintendi’s two-run homer in the eighth to give the Sox a one-run lead. (.475)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 125 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 39 of 47 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
• Alex Bregman +19
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton +13.5
• Carson Kelly +12.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -19.5

Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (seven back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (one up). Dodgers win (two up). Brewers were off (4.5 up).

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the White Sox. Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.53) gets another start for the Cubs. He’ll look to bounce back after allowing six runs in 4.2 innings of his last start. I haven’t seen a formal listing of the Sox starter, but Fangraphs suggests Bryan Hudson (3-4, 3.14). Hudson would be an opener. If I look back for the corresponding turn in the rotation, Erick Fedde was the “bulk” guy behind an opener last week for the Sox. Fedde is 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA.

Regardless of how the Sox deploy their pitching, that’s going to look like a win. Fedde never really lived up to the potential associated with a first round pick. Go win another series. This one would be against a very good team. Take advantage of catching them when your rotation is better positioned than theirs.