There was a little optimism to close out the week with a winning Friday, but there's still a lot of home-run work to do, and this is a big week to crush some MLB player props.
Nobody is popping off more on the projections than Trent Grisham today, indoors vs. Jack Leiter, while Victor Caratini looks to do some damage against Luis Castillo.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Trent Grisham
+490
Victor Caratini
+920
Trevor Story
+880
💲Today's HR parlay
+44078
Trent Grisham (+490)
No player is showing more expected value today at Covers than Trent Grisham at +490. He projects for 0.23 home runs, with the price implying 0.19.
He could see five at-bats hitting leadoff and has gone deep twice over the last seven days. The matchup is favorable against Jack Leiter, a fly-ball arm who allows some of the best launch angles in baseball.
Grisham is also elite at squaring the ball up, leading the New York Yankees in that metric while ranking second in Blast Contact%. Only two players in baseball currently have a higher square-up rate.
On a small slate with poor weather expected on the East Coast, an indoor environment stands out as the best place to target home runs on Monday.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, YES
Victor Caratini (+920)
Let’s take a bigger swing with the projected cleanup hitter for the Minnesota Twins in a strong matchup. The Covers projections like the Over in this game, and suggest the Minnesota offense is being undervalued.
Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side, and the Seattle Mariners bullpen may be without both of its left-handed arms. He’s also very familiar with Luis Castillo, with 23 career at-bats against him.
Castillo may be on the back end of his prime. He’s been inefficient this year, allowing 31 hits in just 23 innings, and projects as a pitcher who could give up 25-30 home runs over the full season.
The fair price for a Caratini home run sits around +770, and double-digit winds blowing out only add to the appeal. Kody Clemens (+520) and Josh Bell (+590) also project as +EV in this game.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Twins.TV, Mariners.TV
Trevor Story (+880)
Trevor Story is set to return to the lineup after sitting out yesterday, and he’s been in the spotlight after calling out the organization for firing multiple coaches. Now he needs to produce, and projections like his chances to go deep at +880.
He gets an indoor setting in Toronto, which ranks as a Top-3 park for right-handed power, with the closed roof keeping conditions stable. The Boston Red Sox offense just scored 22 runs over the weekend, and while the matchup vs. Dylan Cease looks tough, Story has already taken him deep in 10 career at-bats.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen also ranks near the bottom of the league in HR/9. It’s a big number, with a fair price closer to +750.
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SN1, NESN
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 6-45, -12.2 units
Today’s HR parlay
Trent Grisham
Bet Now +44078
Victor Caratini
Trevor Story
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 24: Will Smith #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers taps his helmet to initiate an ABS challenge and is successful against the Chicago Cubs during the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium on April 24, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
LOS ANGELES — Dodgers catcher Will Smith did not start either of the final two games of the weekend series against the Chicago Cubs, while dealing with back tightness.
“He could play if he needed to, but we felt it was smart to give him an extra day, and I guess put him into the day-to-day category,” manager Dave Roberts said Sunday, while adding that he didn’t think Smith would require an injured list stint. “Even talking to the training staff, it’s something that he could have played last night, he probably could have played today. But we didn’t want to push it.”
Roberts first mentioned the back tightness for Smith on Saturday, noting that the original plan was for Smith to start two of the three games against the Cubs, and it was just a matter of when to fit in the Dalton Rushing start this series.
Smith hit a three-run home run on Friday night, and the three-time All-Star is hitting .266/.337/.392 with three home runs and a 106 wRC+. The Dodgers plan to keep monitoring Smith, but it doesn’t hurt having Rushing in reserve. Rushing in his second major league campaign is off to a blazing start, hitting .385/.455/.974 with a 284 wRC+ and seven home runs in only 44 plate appearances. Rushing has hit so well, he’s even started a game each at designated hitter and first base when the need arose.
“My hope is that he’s in there [Monday],” Roberts said of Smith, ”But to have Dalton Rushing going how he’s going, it just seems like only downside to push him right now.“
He wanted to throw his splitter harder, he told pitching coaches Mark Prior and Connor McGuiness, similar to how he threw the pitch in Japan. After months of inconsistency, Sasaki finally felt his delivery was in a good enough place to make the change. McGuiness made a couple of tweaks — the biggest one being a slight grip adjustment— and the two coaches gave Sasaki the all clear to try the pitch in his bullpen session in San Francisco.
“The first one was disgusting,” Prior said. “So we were like, yeah, let’s do that.”
“I think that my No. 1 problem hasn’t been my fastball but rather the percentage of forkballs I’ve been able to throw over the plate,” Sasaki said in Japanese.
By reducing the vertical break of the pitch, Sasaki made it easier to control — but also not as lethal.
Apr 26, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Kumar Rocker (80) is visited on the mound by pitching coach Jordan Tiegs (83) and catcher Danny Jansen (9) during the fifth inning against the Athletics at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
Good morning.
Shawn McFarland writes about what we learned regarding the Texas Rangers as they went 3-3 at home over the last week.
Kennedi Landry writes that Kumar Rocker recorded a second consecutive quality start in a unfortunate losing effort.
For the fifth consecutive season, the Los Angeles Kings have been eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first round. While their past four matchups have all been against the Edmonton Oilers, this time around, it was the Colorado Avalanche who dealt the final blow to Los Angeles, eliminating former Vancouver Canucks forward Andrei Kuzmenko.
The Kings kept things tight towards the start of the series, playing their heavy-forecheck style well and keeping Game 1 and 2’s scores separated by only one goal. In Game 3, Colorado managed to break through Kings goaltender Anton Forsberg by putting four past him compared to Los Angeles’ two goals. Colorado got off to an early lead, doubling-up by the end of the second period and then scoring three in the third to put the game out of reach for Los Angeles.
Kuzmenko missed the final couple of months of the regular season due to a knee injury, but made his 2026 Stanley Cup Playoff debut on April 23. In his previous post-season with the Kings, Kuzmenko scored three goals and three assists in six games for Los Angeles.
While not a player, another former Canuck has seen his 2025–26 playoff campaign end with Los Angeles’ elimination. Once an Assistant Coach for the Canucks on two separate occasions — from 2010 to 2013 and 2017 to 2021 — Kings Assistant Coach Newell Brown has also lost in the first-round for his second-consecutive season. Brown has been with Los Angeles since the 2024–25 season but has also previously worked in the same role for the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Chicago Blackhawks.
Having eliminated the Kings, Colorado will now advance to the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, where they will face the winner of the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild’s series. Regardless of which team wins, the Avalanche will face yet another former Canuck, with Tyler Myers and Casey DeSmith on the Stars and Quinn Hughes on the Wild.
Apr 23, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) is defended by Los Angeles Kings defenseman Brian Dumoulin (2) and left wing Andrei Kuzmenko (96) during the third period of game three of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Make sure you bookmark THN's Vancouver Canucks site and add us to your favourites on Google News for the latest news, exclusive interviews, breakdowns, and so much more. Also, don't forget to leave a comment at the bottom of the page and engage with other passionate fans through our forum. This article originally appeared on The Hockey News.
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MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 27: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets reacts while Jaden McDaniels #3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks to the bench during the second quarter at Target Center on October 27, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets Date: April 27th, 2026 Time: 9:30 PM CDT Location: Ball Arena Television Coverage: NBC, Peacock
Before we get to Game 5, the elimination stakes, the wounded Nuggets, and the suddenly very real possibility that Minnesota could end this thing in Denver again, we need to start with Donte DiVincenzo.
Those 79 seconds of Game 4 were certainly the lasat of his season, and given the time it takes to recover from an achilles tear, his contract situation, and the unforgiving NBA aprons, it’s very possible they were his last in a Timberwolves uniform. It’s worth pausing for a second and appreciating what he has meant to this team since arriving before the 2024-25 season.
Since arriving in Minnesota before the 2024-25 season, DiVincenzo has been exactly the kind of player every serious team needs. He’s been one of the hardest-working, scrappiest, most competitive players on the roster. On a team that has spent large chunks of this season having its effort questioned, Donte was never one of the guys you worried about.
Loose ball? He was diving. Extra rotation? He was making it. Broken nose? He was playing through it. Unfortunately, an Achilles tear is not the kind of thing you just slap a mask on and play through. DiVincenzo underwent surgery Sunday afternoon and now begins the long recovery process. It’s a brutal break for a player who has given this franchise so much toughness, and for a Wolves team that could use every ounce of his fire as it tries to finish off Denver.
The same goes for Anthony Edwards, who is now dealing with a second knee injury after clearly gutting his way through the first three-and-a-half games of this series. There’s no questioning Ant’s toughness. You could see him fighting through pain, trying to summon the explosiveness that usually defines him, trying to be the guy this team has leaned on for two straight postseason runs. But he wasn’t himself, and unfortunately, pushing through one issue may have helped lead to another.
The timeline for Edwards’ return remains uncertain, but you know it is killing him that he won’t be on the floor Monday night with a chance to end Denver’s season. That is the kind of stage he lives for. The kind of moment where his competitive wiring usually takes over and turns a playoff game into his personal superhero audition tape. Instead, he has to watch and hope his teammates can keep doing what they’ve somehow managed to do lately: pick up the slack, carry the burden collectively, and give him a chance to rest for whatever comes next.
So yes, there’s a somber cloud hanging over this team even after one of its most satisfying wins of the season. Two starting backcourt pieces down. One of them done for the year. One of them uncertain.
But here’s the thing about Game 4: the Wolves did not look like a team asking for pity.
They looked like a team that had found something.
It was obvious from the jump that Game 4 wasn’t going to be the start-to-finish demolition that Game 3 became. Denver is too good, too proud, and too experienced to simply roll over because Minnesota punched it in the mouth once. The Nuggets were always going to respond. Nikola Jokic was always going to push back (we’ll get to that in a minute…). A former champion does not usually go quietly into the night just because Target Center got loud and Jaden McDaniels started taking up space in everyone’s head.
But to Minnesota’s credit, it did not get high on its own supply. The Wolves came out in Game 4 with the same defensive intensity, the same physical edge, and the same willingness to make Denver uncomfortable. For the second straight game, the Nuggets failed to crack 100 points. In an NBA where everybody scores 120 by accident, Minnesota has turned one of the league’s smartest, most dangerous offenses into a team searching for loose change between couch cushions.
And then came Ayo Dosunmu. What else can you even say about that performance? Forty-three points. Five-for-five from three. Constant rim pressure. Transition bursts. Confidence dripping off every touch. A masterclass from a player who was asked to step into a void left by Edwards and DiVincenzo and responded by authoring one of the most stunning bench performances in NBA playoff history.
Now, let’s be realistic for one second: 43 points from Ayo is not something you can just pencil in again. If your Game 5 strategy is “Ayo turns into playoff Steph Curry with downhill burst,” that’s probably not the soundest plan. But what made the performance so encouraging is that it did not feel fake. He did not play outside himself. He did not hijack the offense. He did not stumble into a bunch of absurd, unsustainable nonsense. He played his game of fast, aggressive, decisive, efficient basketball and simply got enough touches, minutes, and opportunity for the whole world to see what Wolves fans have been watching in flashes since he arrived.
Even if the 43-point explosion was the outlier, the player underneath it is real. The pace, the rim pressure, the three-point accuracy is real, and the confidence is real. With Edwards and DiVincenzo unavailable, the Wolves need every bit of that to survive this series and maybe, somehow, extend this playoff run into something bigger.
But as electric as Ayo was, the foundation remained the same: Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels turning Denver’s two best players into frustrated problem-solvers.
Gobert has been magnificent. Not just good. Magnificent. He has neutralized Jokic in ways we almost never see. Rudy has made him work. He has made him feel size, length, resistance, fatigue, and the constant presence of someone who has fully embraced the biggest defensive assignment of the playoffs.
McDaniels has been every bit as important on Murray. He has hounded him, smothered him, picked him up full court, and made every dribble feel contested. That is what McDaniels can do when he’s fully engaged, and right now he is not just engaged, he is thriving in the villain role Denver seems desperate to cast him in.
The recipe has become clear. Attack the rim. Push the pace. Turn defensive stops into transition chances. Make Jokic and Murray run until the legs start to go. Then clamp down defensively, with Gobert owning the paint and McDaniels crawling inside Murray’s jersey.
That is what Minnesota did in Game 4. That is why the Wolves now lead 3-1. And that is why, even without Edwards and DiVincenzo, there should not be one person in that locker room who believes this cannot be finished Monday night.
Which brings us to the end-of-game chaos…
If you watched the final seconds, and if you’re reading this, let’s be honest, of course you watched the final seconds, you knew what was coming the second Mike Conley tipped that ball ahead to a wide-open Jaden McDaniels.
Jaden was going to score.
There was no universe where he was dribbling that out. Not after the way this series has unfolded. Not after his comments following Game 2 about Denver’s defenders. Not after spending four games buying up real estate inside the Nuggets’ collective brain like he was flipping mental duplexes. With the Wolves about to go up 3-1, with Denver already simmering, McDaniels putting two more points on the board was not just a layup. It was a cherry on top of Denver’s turd sundae.
Jokic did not appreciate the garnish.
He sprinted the length of the floor to confront McDaniels and shoved him toward the Wolves bench. Chaos followed. Julius Randle rushed in aggressively to defend his teammate. There were forceful arm movements, a lot of bodies, a lot of barking, and just enough uncertainty to leave everyone waiting on the league office. Jonas Valanciunas and Aaron Gordon appeared to leave Denver’s bench area to enter the scuffle, which by the strict letter of the law could carry consequences. Jokic, of course, was the one who initiated the whole thing by charging across the floor to start the confrontation in the first place.
And now we wait.
Hopefully, common sense wins. No one appeared to be hurt. This was mostly smoke. The last thing this series needs is more rotation players removed from the equation, especially with DiVincenzo already out, Edwards injured, and Gordon clearly hobbled. This might be the best rivalry in the league right now. Let it breathe. Let it play out. Let the players settle it in Game 5.
Of course, Wolves fans know how these things tend to go. If there is an opportunity for the league to turn the screws on Minnesota, history suggests the screwdriver will at least be removed from the toolbox. Suspending Randle would be weak given that Jokic clearly instigated the incident. But this is the NBA, and logic does not always get the final possession.
Either way, the situation now is brutally simple. Minnesota is one win away from ending Denver’s season. One win away from eliminating the best player on the planet. One win away from finishing off its biggest rival, in Denver, for the second time in three postseasons.
And with that, here are the keys to Game 5.
1. Defense Has to Remain the Anchor
This entire series has changed because Minnesota found the formula defensively.
It starts with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, the two players who have become Denver’s personal haunted house. Rudy has embraced the Jokic challenge in a way that should end any lingering doubt about his importance to this roster. What Rudy can do is make Jokic work. Make him finish through length. Make him think twice near the rim. Make him spend 48 minutes dealing with a defender who has decided this matchup is personal.
That version of Rudy changes everything.
And Jaden? Jaden has turned Jamal Murray into a man searching for clean oxygen. The full-court pressure, the length, the constant harassment, and the refusal to give him comfortable touches has worn Murray down possession by possession, quarter by quarter. Murray can still hit tough shots, but the Wolves have made him work for every inch, and by the end of these games he has looked like someone who just finished running a marathon while being chased by a very angry spider.
That has to continue. The Wolves cannot let Jokic and Murray breathe life back into this series. They cannot let Denver’s supporting cast get comfortable because the primary actions are generating clean looks. The defensive standard has been set. It has to travel back to Denver.
If Gobert and McDaniels continue to win their battles, the Nuggets simply may do have enough scoring punch to survive, especially with Aaron Gordon hobbled and the rest of the roster looking increasingly unreliable under pressure.
The Wolves don’t need a pretty game.
They need a suffocating one.
2. Keep Running Until Denver’s Legs Give Out
The Wolves have found another pressure point, and it’s not complicated: run Denver into the ground.
The Nuggets are not as deep. They are not as young. They do not have the same supply of fresh legs. And because their offense leans so heavily on Jokic and Murray, the minutes add up.
Minnesota has to make this game feel long. Every defensive rebound should be an invitation to push. Every Denver miss should become a footrace. Every turnover should turn into a sprint the other way. Make Denver’s thin rotation feel every second of the altitude that is supposed to be their advantage.
This is where missing DiVincenzo hurts, because he is one of the guys who naturally plays with that kind of force and chaos. But Minnesota still has enough. Ayo Dosunmu can push. Bones Hyland can fly. Terrence Shannon Jr. can attack. Jaden can run lanes. Even Mike Conley, in a smaller role, can make the right pass to trigger the break.
The Wolves cannot let this become a slow, comfortable, half-court Jokic clinic. That is where Denver regains control.
Make it fast. Make it exhausting. Make it uncomfortable.
And when the fourth quarter arrives, make Denver feel like it has already played five.
3. Attack the Rim Before Falling in Love With the Three
For most of the season, the Wolves lived and died by the three-point line. This series has shifted the equation.
Minnesota’s best offense has not come from launching threes first. It has come from putting pressure on the rim, forcing Denver to collapse, and then letting the perimeter game open naturally from there. That has to remain the offensive identity in Game 5. The Wolves need to collectively generate paint pressure and make Denver’s weak rim protection prove it can hold up for 48 minutes.
That does not mean ignoring the three. Far from it. The threes are going to matter, especially without Donte and Ant spacing the floor. But the threes need to come after the defense bends. Drive first, kick second. Collapse first, punish second.
Denver wants Minnesota to settle. Minnesota has to refuse.
If the Wolves win the points in the paint battle and keep generating high-efficiency looks around the rim, they can survive even without a volcanic three-point night. If they also hit a respectable percentage from deep? That is when this series ends.
4. Maintain Composure
The Nuggets are on the verge of snapping. We already saw the first cracks.
Jaden is in their heads. Rudy is frustrating them. The Wolves’ pace is wearing them down. Their defense is choking off Denver’s preferred actions. And now the defending champs are one loss away from going home.
That is when desperate teams start looking for emotional edges.
Expect the chippiness. Expect the foul baiting. Expect the flopping. Expect the extra shoulder after the whistle, the “accidental” contact, the verbal jabs, the crowd feeding into every complaint, and the officials being put in positions where the Wolves have to decide whether they want to play basketball or argue about injustice.
They have to choose basketball.
That does not mean backing down. Actually, it means the opposite. Minnesota has to be physical, mean, aggressive, and relentless, but under control. No stupid technicals. No retaliation that gives Denver free points. No letting Jokic, Murray, or anyone else turn this into a whistle-and-emotions game.
The Wolves have been the better team for three straight games because they have imposed their style. They cannot give that away by chasing the drama.
Let Denver be the team that unravels.
5. Put Down the Kill Shot
This is the moment.
There is no gentle way to say it. The Wolves have the Nuggets wounded. They have Denver down 3-1. They have the formula. They have the defensive answers. They have proven they can win without peak Edwards and, in Game 4, without their starting backcourt carrying the offense. They have taken Denver’s best punch, adjusted, punched back, and now they are standing over the Nuggets with a chance to end it.
You do not mess around with opportunities like this.
Because if Denver wins Game 5, this series changes. Suddenly it is 3-2 and Game 6 becomes a pressure cooker. Suddenly the Nuggets start believing in the old “one game at a time” mantra that every dangerous team convinces itself of when it is trying to crawl out of a grave.
Minnesota cannot allow that. This has to be a full-team effort. Ayo does not need to score 43 again, because expecting that would be insane. But he has to be confident and aggressive. Randle has to be forceful without being reckless. Jaden has to keep defending like a man who enjoys ruining evenings. Rudy has to keep anchoring everything. Naz has to bring the bench punch. Bones has to supply a few scoring bursts. Shannon has to be ready. Conley has to steady the ship if needed. Kyle Anderson has to glue possessions together. Every available player has to give Minnesota something.
This is not about one guy saving them.
This is about the pack finishing the hunt.
Finish It
The Wolves have Denver exactly where they want them.
They are one win away from ending the season of their biggest rival. One win away from eliminating the best player on the planet. One win away from proving, once again, that this roster was built for this matchup and that Minnesota is not just some annoying playoff obstacle for Denver, it is the problem Denver cannot solve.
But the hardest win in a series is often the closing one. Especially against a team with pride. Especially against a team with Jokic. Especially in Denver. Especially after a game that ended with tempers flaring and everyone in that building ready to treat Game 5 like a street fight with a scoreboard.
Let it be hard.
This is the playoffs. This is the rivalry. This is what they asked for.
The Wolves do not need to be perfect. They need to be connected, physical, fast, and composed. They need to be hungry enough to understand that giving Denver one more breath is the most dangerous thing they can do.
End it now.
End it in their building.
End it the same way they did two years ago, with the Nuggets staring around in disbelief and the Wolves walking off the floor knowing they took something.
After a resounding 114-98 win against the Hawks on Saturday in Atlanta, the Knicks regained homecourt advantage in their first-round playoff series. That wasn’t the only thing.
The Knicks rediscovered their mojo after two close losses. After notable performances from Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, New York has a chance to take a 3-2 series lead on Tuesday night.
Here are three keys ahead of Game 5 at Madison Square Garden...
Point KAT
It’s been a season of push-and-pull between head coach Mike Brown and Towns.
The All-Star has slowly become more acclimated to a role where he is more of an offensive hub with the power to score and facilitate. Towns had the first playoff triple-double of his career in Game 4, notching 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. Towns has also been more under control over the last few months -- he had just two turnovers on Saturday.
It was clear from the jump that the Knicks wanted to emphasize Towns as an initiator of the offense, and he excelled. New York found comfort in repeatedly having the big man with the ball at the top of the key, and Anunoby making a lex cut off a screen from Jalen Brunson. Since Atlanta was looking to prevent Jalen Johnson from switching onto Brunson, it opened up several easy passes for Towns to make for Anunoby at the rim.
The trouble with performances like these is consistency. Can the Knicks continue to operate the offense through Towns on Tuesday night? Or will they revert to a bogged down offense?
Going into Game 5, the Knicks should continue running the offense through Towns. As we saw on Saturday, he doesn’t need to score on every play, but the attention he draws should continue to open up opportunities for his teammates.
Halfcourt series
When this series has been played in the halfcourt, the Knicks have the advantage.
After giving up 20 fast break points in Game 3, New York held the Hawks to just seven in Game 4. Many of those quick strike opportunities came after the game was in hand. One of the keys to controlling the pace comes from mitigating turnovers.
New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) works against Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) during the first half at State Farm Arena. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
New York had 10 turnovers through the third quarter in Game 4. Four of the turnovers were live-ball miscues, limiting opportunities for the Hawks to run out. Also, in some of the live-ball turnovers, New York did a good job of getting back to limit easy scoring opportunities.
One concern has been Brunson’s struggles with full court pressure. Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels gave the Knicks captain fits as he brought the ball up in Game 4. Brunson finished the night with six turnovers, as the Knicks made more of a concerted effort to have Hart bring the ball up.
If New York can keep Atlanta in the halfcourt, the team should have control of this series the rest of the way.
Scoring leap
Anunoby has been New York’s most consistent player in the postseason. Through four games, the Knicks forward is averaging 20.8 points on 56 percent from the field and 8.8 rebounds. It’s arguably the best stretch of the nine-year veteran’s career.
Anunoby has made an impact on both ends, making him a must-have on the court. He played a game-high 40 minutes on Saturday, scoring 22 points and collecting 10 rebounds.
Defensively, he’s been the defensive force that the Knicks have come to expect every night. With Hart moving over to guard CJ McCollum more often, we’ve seen an increased amount of Anunoby defending Johnson.
That two-way play has been successful. In 152 minutes with Anunoby on the court during the first round, New York has a net rating of plus-6.7, per NBA Stats. When he has been off the floor, the Knicks have been outscored by 1.2 points per 100 possessions.
Amid Mikal Bridges' struggles and subsequent decrease in playing time in the series, Anunoby’s continued production on both ends has been paramount to picking up wins.
Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Pedro Avila was tagged for five runs in the second inning of game one of the doubleheader, pretty much removing any chance of Columbus getting back into the game.
Nolan Jones went 2-for-3 with a home run and a walk while Kody Huff homered and walked. Petey Halpin also reached base three times, going 1-for-2 with a pair of walks.
Game two was much more fun. Starting pitcher Logan Allen allowed four runs on six hits through 5.1 innings, but the bullpen was sensational after that. Daniel Espino pitched a scoreless 0.2 innings, coming in mid-inning for the first time with a strikeout.
Franco Aleman followed with a scoreless inning and a pair of strikeout to send the game to extra innings and Tanner Burns was downright sensational, striking out all three batters he faced in the 10th inning to earn his second save of the season.
Offensively, Juan Benjamin blasted off for his second home run of the season and he timed it perfectly in extra innings to give Columbus the lead.
Ralphy Velazquez had a solid game, going 2-for-5 with a walk and three RBIs while Jacob Cozart went 2-for-3 with three walks to reach base a whopping five times.Alex Mooney went 1-for-4 with a double, a walk and a stolen base while Jose Devers went 2-for-4 with a walk. Conner Barstad also walked three times and was hit by a pitch.
Starting pitcher Khal Stephen didn’t have his best stuff and also was a bit unlucky with sequencing. He only allowed three hits and walked one, but he gave up four runs in 4.0 innings with six strikeouts.
Adam Tulloch, Carter Rustad and Jack Carey all had scoreless appearances in relief.
I know I talk about him every time he starts, but Justin Campbell is too good to still be at High-A. He pitched 3.0 nearly immaculate innings on Sunday with four strikeouts, no walks, no runs allowed and just one hit allowed.
Melkis Hernandez followed and was solid, allowing one run on two hits in 4.0 innings while striking out five and walking three.
Luis Flores held on to preserve the win, allowing a pair of runs in his two innings of work to get a save.
Offensively, Lake County didn’t have any major standouts, but everyone contributed. The team’s nine hits were spread between eight players and the one player who didn’t get a hit (Dean Curley) walked three times.
Jace LaViolette went 1-for-3 with a pair of walks, Aaron Walton went 1-for-3 with a double and was hit by two pitches. Nolan Schubart went 1-for-4 with a hit by pitch. Ryan Cesarini went 1-for-4 with a walk. Bennett Thompson went 1-for-3 with two walks.
Esteban Gonzalez only went 1-for-5, but he blasted a two-run home run. Jeffrey Mercedes went 2-for-4 and Spencer Howe doubled and stole a base.
You can learn a lot about a team by how they perform against some of the best teams, and Hill City proved itself Sunday against the then 15-5 Hickory Crawdads. who have one of the best records in minor league baseball.
Trailing 8-4 in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Howlers rallied for four runs to tie the game, then held Hickory scoreless in the 10th and 11th innings before walking off in the bottom of the 11th to earn a massive come-from-behind victory.
The walk-off wasn’t anything particularly crazy. Robert Arias was the ghost runner and advanced to third base on a balk before trotting home on a game-winning sacrifice fly from Juneiker Caceres.
How Hill City tied the game was more exciting. The Howlers loaded the bases with no one out, then Anthony Martinez walked to bring in the first run. Jose Pirela then was hit by a pitch to bring in the second run. Tyler Howard walked to bring in run No. 3 and Jhorvic Abreus hit into a 4-6-3 double play, which scored the tying run.
Incredibly, Hill City managed nine runs on just four hits thanks in part to walking a whopping 13 times and getting hit by one pitch.
Caceres went 1-for-3 with two walks and the game-winning sacrifice fly. Robert Arias was a beast, going 1-for-3 with three walks and two stolen bases. Martinez went 0-for-2, but walked three times as well. The lone extra base hit came from Abreus, who doubled and walked. Yerlin Luis also walked twice and stole a base.
Starting pitcher Chase Mobley didn’t have his best stuff, allowing two runs on three hits with three walks and no strikeouts in 2.0 innings.
The first four pitchers all allowed runs, but the back half of the bullpen locked things down, not allowing a single hit or run over the game’s final 4.1 innings.
Wes Burton pitched 1.1 perfect frames with a strikeout. Miguel Flores pitched a perfect scoreless ninth inning with a strikeout and most impressively, Angel Perez didn’t allow a run in either the 10th or 11th innings despite starting both with a ghost runner on second base.
BALTIMORE, MD - APRIL 25: Colton Cowser #17 of the Baltimore Orioles at bat against the Boston Red Sox during the seventh inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 25, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Elias was pretty clear that Cowser isn’t going anywhere. “He’s frustrated,” Elias said “We know the talent level is there, he’s frustrated. Right now, he’s helping us, and we need him on the team.”
It is obvious to everyone that Cowser has not played up to his expectations or, as Elias said, his talent level. One month into the season, that has forced the Orioles to upend their planned outfield rotation, and it has Cowser’s future with the club in doubt, at least externally.
For the first two weeks of the season, Cowser was the team’s everyday center fielder. Since April 10, he has been used exclusively in the corner outfield spots. And even more recently, he has been treated like a fourth outfielder rather than a starter at all. Over the Orioles’ last 11 games, Cowser has started just four of them. He didn’t start any of the games against the Red Sox this weekend, not even the one against a right-handed starter coming out of an off day.
It’s hard to make an argument for Cowser to play any more than he is. The numbers just aren’t good enough. He owns a .200/.274/.236 batting line with two doubles, zero home runs, six walks, and 20 strikeouts.
Strikeouts have always been a problem for Cowser. His 31.7% K-rate this year is actually better than his career number (32.2%), though both are awful. And, as usual, he is pairing it with a fine walk rate (9.5%). The bigger problem is that he has shown no power in 2026. As a rookie, Cowser popped 24 home runs and had a .447 slugging percentage. Last year he hit 16 homers and had a .385 slug despite a myriad of injuries. This year his slugging percentage is the dumps at .236 and he is yet to go deep.
What has saved the Orioles center field position from being an offensive black hole yet again is the presence of Leody Taveras. Signed for $2 million this past offseason, the expectation was for Taveras to be a depth option across the outfield. Instead, he has earned the everyday spot in center with his .288/.400/.441 batting line that includes two home runs, 15 RBI, 11 walks, and 14 strikeouts.
This version of Taveras is much different than the one that found success with the World Series-winning Rangers in 2023. That year saw him post a 101 wRC+ while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center. This year, he has a 141 wRC+ and is just passable in the field.
How long can Taveras keep this offensive production up? That’s where things get tricky. His 15.5% walk rate is more than double his career rate (6.9%), and he has a .349 BABIP. Negative regression is probably coming for both of those numbers. He also has below average exit velocities, barrel rates, and hard hit rates.
We may be seeing the numbers start to slip already. Taveras is hitting .143/.217/.286 over his last 23 plate appearances. That has brought his season OPS from 1.016 on April 18 to .841 today. One bad week isn’t enough to take Taveras out of the lineup, especially with Cowser still scuffling. But it could be a warning sign that the Orioles need to figure something out in center field.
Dylan Beavers and Blaze Alexander are the other two Orioles that have played in center this year. Neither looks like a natural fit at the position, and should probably only be used there in emergency situations. But it could be an avenue to go down when one of them is hot at the plate and manager Craig Albernaz is looking to juice his lineup. That seemed to be the logic for Beavers to start there on Sunday.
Down in Triple-A Norfolk, there are two center field options that are at least somewhat intriguing.
Enrique Bradfield Jr. was the team’s top draft pick in 2023. He came out of Vanderbilt as an old school lead-off type. It’s good bat control, limited power, but elite speed and a great glove. The Orioles probably hoped for better batting averages out of Bradfield—he hit .242 last year and is at .224 so far this year—but he still walks a lot and can steal a base at any time. If you need a sparkplug type, he could be the answer. It just might be more a of bottom-of-the-order type of bat than a lead-off man.
Jud Fabian is another name to watch, though probably not an everyday solution. The Orioles coveted Fabian in the 2021 draft, but the Red Sox swooped in and took him instead. He declined to sign with them, returning to Florida for a year, which allowed the Orioles to get their man the following year. The guy is lauded for his physical skills, but has always been killed for his lack of a hit tool. That hasn’t changed this year. He is striking out 29.6% of the time, but he is also walking a ton (21.4%) and has shown tremendous power (five home runs, .440 SLG). The glove and arm are good too. He feels like a fourth outfielder type, but could plug and play with the O’s pretty soon.
Elias didn’t pursue any other center field upgrades this offseason beyond Taveras. He seemingly assumed that Cowser would be fine, and when he needed a breather the club had suitable fill-ins. All the while Bradfield could further develop and prove worthy of being the heir-apparent at the position. For now, that has been a reasonable solution. But if Taveras’ production dries up, which it may already be doing, it will exploit a hole in the Orioles roster than many pointed out all winter long.
Apr 26, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson (49) in the dugout during the game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
The Boston Red Sox pulled the trigger on a major coaching staff change this weekend when they fired manager Alex Cora and several assistant coaches. There is a brewing player revolt happening because of it, but the Red Sox made the decision to move in a different direction. They’re not playing particularly well and since you can’t fire the players, the “next best thing” was the option the front office chose.
Should the Phillies be considering a similar move?
If this was something they were truly going to think about, the time is probably right to do so. They have had a dreadful road trip that saw them end it with a 9-19 record, the entire operation feels stagnant at this time and there are actual reasons to do something. Maybe that involves Rob Thomson’s job being on the line, maybe it involves Kevin Long looking for his next place of employment. Maybe even Caleb Cotham should start sweating a little more than usual.
Would they actually do it? I’m not so sure about that.
PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 19: Jacob Melton #29 of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on in the dugout prior to the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Thursday, March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
This was the 3rd week of full minor league play (stats are entering play on Sunday, April 26th).
According to FanGraphs (which factors in age and proximity to the big leagues), 22-year old backstop Caden Bodine continues to be the top hitter in the Rays system; the Rays acquired the former 1st round pick in the Shane Baz deal. Bodine is currently hitting .408/.457/.662 with 3 HR over 83 PA; notably, he has only struck out twice (2.4%).
Meanwhile, Aidan Cremarosa is still the team’s top minor league pitcher. The 22-year old was taken by the Rays in the 8th round of the 2025 draft out of Fresno State. Thus far over four starts, Cremarosa has a 3.60 ERA | 1.76 FIP with a 39.5 K% & 3.7 BB% over 20 IP.
RUMBLINGS
SO MANY INJURIES
Jacob Melton looked awkward rounding third base and had to be assisted off the field. The injury would be disclosed as a sprained ankle and he is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Daniel Pierce was placed on the 7-day Injured List
Brendan Summerhill was placed the 7-day Injured List.
Other players placed on the IL (Some of these were last week):
RHP Jacob Kisting, RHP Nate Knowles, C Brady Donay, OF James Quinn-Irons, RHP Luke Jackson, & LHP Drew Dowd.
Baseball America’s top ten prospects are featured below each team they’re currently assigned to.
(minimum of 30 TBF for pitchers)
Tampa Bay Rays
Top 10 Prospects
None currently on active roster
Durham Bulls
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .323, Victor Mesa Jr OBP: .417, Victor Mesa Jr SLG: .565, Victor Mesa Jr HR: 4,Justyn-Henry Malloy and Dom Keegan wRC+: 157, Victor Mesa Jr SB: 17, Jacob Melton
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 0.00, Trevor Martin FIP: 2.93, Andrew Wantz K%: 35.3%, Logan Workman BB%: 9.0%, Chase Solesky WHIP: 1.12, Kodi Whitley AVG: .171, Trevor Martin WHIFF%: 16.0%, Alex Cook
4/23: Suffered sprained ankle. Expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Montgomery Biscuits
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .306, Cooper Kinney OBP: .431, Xavier Isaac SLG: .571, Xavier Isaac HR: 4, Will Simpson & Xavier Isaac wRC+: 159, Xavier Isaac SB: 18, Austin Overn
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 1.80, Michael Forret FIP: 2.79, Derrick Edington K%: 29.7%, Santiago Suarez BB%: 2.4%, Tommy McCollum WHIP 0.73, Garrett Edwards AVG: .130, Garrett Edwards WHIFF%: 14.2%, Santiago Suarez
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .364, Nathan Flewelling OBP: .464, Tony Santa Maria SLG: .867, Theo Gillen HR: 6, Theo Gillen & Connor Hujsak wRC+: 213, Theo Gillen SB: 9, Tony Santa Maria
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 0.93, Andres Galan FIP: 2.05, Anderson Brito K%: 32.8%, Anderson Brito BB%: 6.3%, Anderson Brito WHIP: 1.2, Andres Galan AVG: .216, Trevor Harrison & Andres Galan WHIFF%: 14.7%, Anderson Brito
By all accounts, Alex Cora is a good manager as far as these things go. Dan is correct in that you really can’t predict or even properly judge a manager’s contributions except in obvious outlier situations, but the buzz around Cora has always been positive. His strongest claim to fame is winning a World Series with one of greatest teams of all time, credit for which can go whichever way one is inclined. Did the manager inspire or ride the team to greatness?
Cora landed on the positive side of that unknowable gulf, having come out of the 2018 season with an incredible reputation that persists to this day even if it doesn’t necessarily stand up to scrutiny. Unfortunately, that was followed by a yearlong suspension by MLB for his role in the Astros’ cheating fuckery, leading him to being fired by the Sox, which honestly was probably a blessing given that the “season” he ended up missing was 2020, which was a fake idea (the playoffs were good tho). But let’s assume for purposes of this column it wasn’t and say getting fired for cheating was generally bad for his career.
So when Cora returned as the Red Sox manager in November 2020, several months and a “full” MLB season later during which the Mookie Betts-led Dodgers won it all, it was understandable from both sides. The Sox had been terrible and Cora needed to rebuild his reputation. But the last time Cora had suited up for the Sox, Betts was on the team. Cora knew the environment into which he was walking. He was returning to Dysfunction Junction.
Fast-forward to second Instagram post following his shock dismissal on Saturday, a reel of Mookie Betts talking about the business of baseball in Boston. I wasn’t moved. He came back into the fold with eyes wide open with respect to John Henry and Sam Kennedy — a Massachusetts Milhouse crossed with Walnut St. Wormtongue — and has been kicked to the curb like so many before him, including Betts and Rafael Devers. He didn’t appear to be too upset or surprised about it in the first post, that’s for sure:
It was, as I wrote on Saturday, probably just time for him to move on, but the Red Sox, in their inimitable way, botched it completely. And let me tell you something: the nostalgia dopamine blast for this nonsense I had for this was amazing. It wasn’t just a throwback to the more recent FSG fuckery. I’m 48 years old, which is older than most of you, and pre-FSG this was the norm. It’s sort of unreal that the Sox won 5 titles between 1900 and 1918 and 4 between 2000 and 2018 and decided, exactly 100 years apart, to aggressively self-sabotage. Billy Shakes would be proud; Claude could never. Even in the misery, life is beautiful, in its way.
But I don’t feel bad for Cora. He came back because they gave him money and power because they were chasing their tail, which they continue to do. Live by the disinterested billionaire and his quietly power-mad protege, die by them. Henry is cooked. Kennedy’s job is obscuring that, and he’s running out of other people to blame. Breslow is a patsy, one who’s supremely aloof but better at his job than his predecessor. But on the subject of Chaim Bloom I can firmly now say that I might have been too hard on you, given how absurd your bosses were.
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 7: Reynaldo López #40 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after hitting Jorge Soler (12) of the Los Angeles Angels with a pitch at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 7, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Reynaldo Lopez mechanics saga is, well, a saga.
First, we had his diminished velocity in Spring Training due to “mechanics” rather than injury or something else that persisted, as he was throwing in the high 90s in this 2026 debut. That debut went well without Lopez pitching all that well, but he looked and pitched much better in starts three and four, until essentially a career-worst outing in Washington upended the nascent trend of effectiveness and threw everything into question.
Since then, Lopez has been on a rotation hiatus, but really, a pitching hiatus. He was warming up in the bullpen in Sunday’s win over the Phillies, but didn’t make it into the game. The explanation? It involves “mechanics” again.
So, because I have no idea and am hoping someone else will do the work for me: what mechanical issues are we talking about, exactly? Mechanics have now been attributed to Lopez’ wide variance in fastball velocity from pitch to pitch and game to game, but also his overall effectiveness. I can’t tell whether it’s meant to be a vague catchall for everything under the sun, i.e., he’s not effective and we’re not sure why but he doesn’t want to go to on the Injured List, or whether there really is something that he’s unable to fix in a side session. Anyone have any ideas?
May 6, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans player Rajon Rondo controls the ball against the Golden State Warriors for game 4 of the 2018 NBA playoffs in the Smoothie Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Clause/The Advertiser via USA TODAY NETWORK
Former Kentucky Wildcat and two-time NBA champion Rajon Rondo is reportedly in the running to be a NBA head coach.
According to Marc Stein, the New Orleans Pelicans are largely considering Rondo for their HC position.
He spent the 2017-2018 season as the starting point guard, averaging eight points and as many assists in 65 games.
Clearly the Pelicans brass liked what they saw from Rondo during his time in New Orleans and throughout the rest of his career, as they’ve already interviewed him for the HC position.
Rondo most recently served as a special assistant on the staff of Doc Rivers in Milwaukee, having last played in the NBA during the 2021-2022 season for both the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers.
He was always a true floor general and locker room leader during his playing career, even dating back to his first few seasons when he was the starting PG for the 2008 NBA champion Boston Celtics where he was heavily mentored by Kevin Garnett.
Rondo’s basketball IQ has always been seen as one of the best, which should also help him in the coaching scene where the Pelicans have highly talented players such as Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson. He could also be a great mentor for someone like Dejounte Murray.
What do you think about Rondo’s chances of becoming the next young coach in the NBA?
Did it cross the line? We may never know — but what is certain is that the Oilers season is now on the brink.
The Ducks’ Ryan Poehling scored 2:29 into overtime after his sharp-angle shot hit an Edmonton skate in front and reluctantly trickled under goalie Tristan Jarry for a 4-3 Anaheim victory.
The refs officials made no call on the ice before huddling and ruling it a goal. An extensive video review revealed no reason to overturn the judgment on the ice that the puck had barely crossed the goal line underneath Jarry’s skate.
The puck was partially blocked out on the overhead angle by the goaltender’s skate, making it impossible to tell if it had fully crossed the line.
The puck is behind Oilers goalie Tristan Jarry and ruled a goal by officials. Getty Images
Poehling celebrated immediately, even though he wasn’t totally sure the game was over.
“I thought I saw some white (between the puck and the goal line) when I was behind the net,” Poehling said. “Then everyone was celebrating. Did it go in? I’m like, ‘I think so?’ But yeah, I thought so right away.”
Not all would agree with the Poehiling.
Longtime NHL player Ryan Whitney fumed in a video on X about the controversy.
“Bulls—t. This is bulls—t,” Whitney, who hosts the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast on Barstool. “This is a scam, you do not see the puck across the line… I don’t know how it was called a goal on the ice. Nobody can see anything and the replay doesn’t show the puck go over the line all the way.
“I feel like I’m taking crazy pills… This is a disgrace to the National Hockey League. This is the worst call I’ve ever seen in an NHL playoff game.”
Oiler coach Kris Knoblauch felt similarly, even if it didn’t quite use as strong as language as Whitney.
The Ducks react after Ryan Poehling scored what was eventually ruled the game-winning goal. AP
“I can’t see it going in,” Knoblauch said. “I can’t see the line. … The (initial) goal call on the ice was probably about 60 to 90 seconds after (the shot), maybe even more. They huddled when they got to center ice, and then they made the (initial) call that it was a good goal. I don’t know. Wasn’t very definitive.”
The Ducks now lead the first-round series 3-1 with Game 5 back in Edmonton on Tuesday night.
Jeffrey Viel tied it with 6:29 left in regulation for the Ducks, who rallied from an early two-goal deficit and another third-period hole with their third consecutive victory over the back-to-back Western Conference champion Oilers.
The Ducks completed their NHL-best 10th multi-goal comeback of the season when Poehling’s sharp-angled shot hit an Edmonton skate in front and reluctantly trickled under goalie Tristan Jarry, who had played well in his first playoff start for his new team.
Tristan Jarry’s skate blocks the overhead view. TSN/X
Cutter Gauthier and Mikael Granlund scored power-play goals in the second period for the Ducks, who have scored 20 goals in four games to begin their team’s first Stanley Cup playoff series in eight years. Lukas Dostal stopped 24 shots and made a pair of spectacular saves on Connor McDavid in the final minutes.
“We’re just playing so connected right now, and we’re doing a good job of doing the right things,” said Anaheim defenseman Jackson LaCombe, who leads the NHL in postseason scoring with eight points after recording two assists in Game 4. “We’re all just feeling great, and I think we’re all competing to the best of our ability, and it’s just paying off right now.”
Evan Bouchard scored a tiebreaking goal early in the third period and Jarry made 34 saves for the Oilers. Kasperi Kapanen and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored first-period goals.
"The issue I have with this is I don't understand how you can say that puck is completely crossing the goal line. There's no official behind the net there."
Edmonton nearly won it late in regulation, but Dostal made a sprawling pad save to deny McDavid on a late breakaway — and Dostal added another big stuff of McDavid in the final minute. The Oilers’ superstar center, who is suspected to be dealing with an injury, had two assists in Game 4.
Jarry struggled for Edmonton right after arriving in a midseason trade with Pittsburgh, losing his job to Connor Ingram. But with the Oilers struggling mightily to stop the fast, exciting Ducks, Knoblauch made the switch for Game 4 and got a solid effort from Jarry, who hadn’t played since April 8.
The Oilers also improved their defensive structure after a shambolic Game 3 – and yet the energetic, hungry Ducks still pumped in four more goals despite never leading.
The Ducks celebrate the Game 4 win. Getty Images
Kapanen silenced the raucous sellout crowd at Honda Center 38 seconds after the opening faceoff with his fourth goal in four games. Nugent-Hopkins then scored just Edmonton’s second power-play goal of the series.
The Ducks began yet another comeback with a vicious wrist shot from Gauthier, their 22-year-old top scorer. Anaheim’s once-awful power play has scored in eight consecutive games.
Granlund and Leo Carlsson then teamed up for a fluid give-and-go to tie it.
Bouchard ripped a wrist shot for a tiebreaking goal just 4 seconds into an Oilers power play, but the Ducks’ fourth line tied it again, with Viel punching home a rebound of John Carlson’s shot for his second career playoff goal.
This is the lab. In the lab we do experiments. Sometimes it is the moral and ethical equivalent of shining a magnifying glass on an ant. In other times, it is a little more serious. I should note that when I put things like this in the lab, it is not proceeded by “the Astros should…” or “the Astros should not….” This is not a hot take. If it were a hot take I certainly would not put it in a lab.
What we are looking at here is ultimately the value of a superstar. Branch Rickey is obviously known as the executive that broke the color barrier. He was also an executive with the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. He infamously told Ralph Kiner that he could finish in last with him or without him. We have obviously seen the huge numbers that Yordan Alvarez has put up and I have spent the last two labs comparing those numbers with the rest of the team and the best hitters in baseball history.
Obviously, if the Astros were shopping Alvarez it would be big news. There have been a few superstar level moves in baseball over the last several years. Heck, Juan Soto was involved in two of those deals as the teams that held him cashed in with prospects. I shouldn’t have to tell anyone that if Yordan became available, there would be at least a half dozen teams waiting in line to make their offer. So, what would a Yordan Alvarez trade even look like?
We should start by accurately pegging his value. Last time, we saw that he is on pace to get close to 12 wins at the pace he is currently at. However, that is not horribly realistic. The best thing we can do is look at what he has done and project from there. There are two ways to do this. We can look at the WAR numbers and project those over 150 games or we can look at the traditional hitting numbers and do the same.
Yordan Alvarez: 25.8 FWAR in 703 career games through Thursday, 5.5 FWAR per 150 games Yordan Alvarez: .298/.392/.580, 39 HR, 96 Runs, 111 RBI, 2 SB, 78 BB
Those are pretty sparkling numbers. We could surmise that this is a career season for Yordan and he might be closer to a seven or eight win player. This is where things get more dicey than what we might think. It would be simplistic to suggest that you want something equivalent to seven or eight wins to break even on the exchange. However, that misunderstands the designation of a replacement level player. The players coming up to replace injured bench players are replacement level players. Most teams are not employing those players as regulars and the Astros are no different.
I hate to pick sides in a debate over metrics because that would taint the lab and its purpose. However, most sabermetricians seem to prefer Fangraph’s WAR over baseball-reference.com’s WAR. Again, I use both because I like getting a cross-section of thought on a player. In this case, we will use FWAR just to keep everything simple. Below would be the Astros regular lineup according to their 2025 FWAR numbers when Yordan Alvarez is removed from the equation.
FWAR
C Yainer Diaz
1.6
1B Christian Walker
1.1
2B Jose Altuve
2.1
3B Carlos Correa
2.6
SS Jeremy Pena
5.7
LF Joey Loperfido*
0.8
CF Jake Meyers
2.3
RF Cam Smith
1.0
DH Isaac Paredes
2.4
Asterisk: Joey Loperfido’s 2024 and 2025 FWARs were combined to simulate the number of plate appearances he would likely get in a full season.
So, as you can see, none of the regulars would be a replacement level player, so you are not starting at zero. The effective difference between Loperfido and Yordan would be an average of five wins and maybe closer to six or seven wins this season alone. I have to emphasize again that we are not simply looking for six or seven wins. We are looking for players that would be six or seven wins better than the players they are replacing.
For instance, if you wanted to upgrade at catcher then you would take the wins above 1.6 as the net improvement. So, a three win catcher is not a net three wins. It would be a net 1.4 wins. As you might imagine, it would be a group of players (likely three or four) that you would hope would combine to add six or seven wins of value to make up for the six or seven wins you are losing. One could easily look at the lineup and pitching staff and identify the spots where an upgrade would be nice. I’d surmise at least one of the players would be a pitcher if not two. The thinner outfield would also be a place where they would likely add.
Unfortunately, that would not be the end of the ledger on any such trade. A look at the wins added would also have to include the element of time. Yordan would have considerable value this season as someone under contract through the 2028 season on a pretty friendly hometown discount (6 years, 115 million). So, we are not only talking about the seven or eight wins he would produce this season, but also those same wins in 2027 and 2028. If we assume Loperfido is fixed at about a win then the Astros would need to recuperate conservatively 18 wins total.
The good news is that they wouldn’t have to do this only through 2028. The players they would likely get back with have more club control than Yordan. If those players were on the younger side then you would be talking five or six seasons of club control remaining for each player. So, three or four players with an average of five seasons of club control each would need to add 18 net wins over the span of those five seasons.
For instance, the tale of the tape on the Kyle Tucker trade is still ongoing. The Cubs got 4.5 wins out of Tucker last season which is probably three to 3.5 wins more than a marginal starter would have gotten. However, the Astros get the services of Cam Smith for six seasons, Isaac Paredes for this year and next year, and Hayden Wesneski for three additional seasons after this year. The Astros have not recouped the four wins yet, but they have through 2030 to recoup a grand total of four wins.
Obviously, the downside is bringing in prospects that produce zero wins. That is always the chance you take with these kinds of deals. However, while it seems foolish to think that you could get bang for your buck when you trade a superstar, the math actually works out more often than not. Naturally, math is not making these trades and it is a lot harder to do because you have to pick the right prospects and accept the fallout of trading a superstar player. Keep in mind, this is a lab experiment where we explain the math behind a theoretical deal. I am not advocating trading Yordan and I’m certainly not predicting it. What do you think? Could we ever recoup that value back?
Trent Grisham
Victor Caratini
Trevor Story
