BRONX, NY - APRIL 19: Kansas City Royals Manager Matt Quatraro (33) takes the ball from Kansas City Royals Pitcher Cole Ragans (55) as he makes a pitching change during the fifth inning of a Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees on April 19, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After a disappointing 2025, everyone in the Kansas City Royals organization–from the coaches to the players to the front office–were adamant that this year’s goal was making the playoffs again. Unfortunately for everyone involved, the season has been a complete and total disaster. We’re 22 games in, and the Royals stand at 7-15, tied for the worst record in Major League Baseball.
The good news is that there are 140 games left in the baseball season. That’s a lot of baseball! Even after playing so poorly so for long to begin the year, the Royals are only five games out from the third Wild Card spot. That’s a plenty workable gap in July, let alone May.
The bad news is that the Royals have probably functionally played themselves out of a playoff spot, even if they’re mathematically in the running.
Let’s start with some simple math here. Over the last five years, the the third Wild Card team (or what would have been the third Wild Card team in 2021) averaged 86.5 wins. Yes, you could get lucky and sneak in with 83 wins, but you could get unlucky and fail to get in with 90. So a win target of 87 is reasonable.
Team
Year
Wins
Blue Jays
2021
91
Blue Jays
2023
89
Mets
2024
89
Phillies
2022
87
Tigers
2025
87
Rays
2022
86
Tigers
2024
86
Diamondbacks
2023
84
Reds
2025
83
Reds
2021
83
MEDIAN
86.5
Here, you can see why the poor start has such a big impact. To get to 87 wins now, the Royals must go 80-60 the rest of the year. That’s a winning percentage of .571, or a 93-win pace.
This is…a tall order. To put it into perspective, the Royals have won 93 games over a full season once in 46 years–that was 2015, when Kansas City won the World Series. The Royals essentially have to play nearly as good as the 2015 team did for the rest of the season. Considering that this team is significantly less talented than that 2015 squad, we have a pretty big problem.
How much less talented these Royals are than a real 90-something win team, a mark that some around the league predicted would happen? That’s the real question. The Royals have made it a nearly yearly tradition to suffer through extended early-season losing streaks. And as longtime Royals writer Rany Jazayerli pointed out, the only times the Royals avoided doing so was when the team made the playoffs (or, in other words, was actually a good team).
For the 20th time in the last 23 years, the Royals have lost 6 in a row in the first 60 games of the season. (And in 17 of the 20 years it happened by Game 35.)
The only three seasons it did *not* happen (2014, 2015, 2024) are the only three seasons they made the playoffs. https://t.co/qaV54cL3sR
The crux of the matter is that good teams don’t start so poorly because they have enough talent to stave off big losing streaks. While I think the Royals are clearly better and more talented than their first few weeks of baseball has shown, I also think it’s clear that the Royals just aren’t a playoff team. They have the same excellent starting pitching and same poor offense as last year, when they went 81-81. Add in what is literally the worst bullpen in the big leagues, though, and this year’s squad is starting to look worse than last year’s squad.
Again, I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if the Royals fought their way back into standings relevancy. It’s just that playoff teams tend not to what the Royals have been doing over this long of a stretch of time. And when you look at the math, well, it just looks grim–just like the experience of watching Royals baseball this year.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - APRIL 13: Starting pitcher Ryne Nelson #19 of the Arizona Diamondbacks is relieved against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 13, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Recaps
[AZ Central] Nelson rocked, Carroll exits early in Toronto rout – Nelson’s outing unraveled almost instantaneously. Each of the first seven Blue Jays hitters recorded hits, doing so after just 20 pitches. At that point, it was 4-0, and only three of those first seven hits were well-struck. After walking No. 8 hitter Myles Straw to load the bases, Nelson struck out Brandon Valenzuela before giving up a bases-clearing double to Nathan Lukes. He was gone after that. “The game can be pretty unkind to you at times,” Nelson said. “I felt like we were one or two balls going a foot or so in the other direction away from getting out of it.” Said manager Torey Lovullo: “He just made some mistakes today. He paid for every mistake he made. That’s part of the game.”
[Dbacks.com] Bumped from rotation, Pfaadt saves ‘pen in 1st relief appearance – Pfaadt, who compiled a 5.94 ERA in three starts, made his first appearance of the year out of the bullpen — and it was a beauty. Pfaadt covered the remaining 6 1/3 innings while allowing just one run.“ Without Brandon Pfaadt’s 6 1/3 innings coming in, we would be up against it for another three or four days,” Lovullo said. “The fact that he’s able to throw 84 pitches and protect the entire bullpen and give them a day off, that was fantastic.”
[SI] Brandon Pfaadt Makes Elite 2026 Bullpen Debut in Ugly Circumstances – Six and one-third innings of one-run baseball would generally be considered a dominant quality start. But right-hander Brandon Pfaadt put up those numbers out of the bullpen on Sunday, following the worst outing by an Arizona Diamondbacks’ starter since, ironically, Pfaadt’s own start just under a year ago. Pfaadt had previously allowed eight runs on six hits without recording a single out in a start against the Washington Nationals back on May 31 of 2025. But on Sunday, he was the hero who cleaned up Nelson’s similarly-tough outing.
Team news
[Dbacks.com] Carroll, D-backs downplay star’s back injury following early exit – The television broadcast showed him grimacing after a swing in the bottom of the third inning and then appearing to stretch out his back in right field in the top of the fourth. Both Carroll and manager Torey Lovullo downplayed any concern, and both said he would have remained in the game if not for the lopsided score.“He’s definitely got some low back issues that have been taking place,” Lovullo said. “You know, I told you guys that there were some things that were happening around his body, but he’s just tightly wound.” “It’s just a little tightness,” Carroll said. “It was enough where, in a game like that, I was fine getting out of there — but in a closer game, [I] definitely would have stayed in there.”
[Arizona Sports] Brandon Pfaadt on move to bullpen: ‘Good opportunity to grow’ – With Merrill Kelly returning this past week from the injured list, the D-backs decided to move Pfaadt to the bullpen, a new experience for him with one career relief appearance after an opener in 2023. “It’s a little different, but it’s a good opportunity to grow from and go out there and have a different perspective of the game,” Pfaadt said on Friday. “Probably keep it more extended, stretched out, but obviously depends on the situation and everything, but probably more than likely still built up to a degree,” he added on his role.
[SI] What D-backs’ Series Win Over Blue Jays Told Us — And What It Didn’t – Geraldo Perdomo has been one of the savviest, most mature players on the D-backs in recent years. But he’s had some struggles on both sides of the ball this season. That came to a head in game two, as he made outs on the bases twice and made a costly defensive mistake that led to a run scoring. Manager Torey Lovullo gave Perdomo the day off in the series finale as a result. The manager maintained his confidence in the shortstop, but it is a bit uncharacteristic to see Perdomo make mistakes of this nature.
And, elsewhere…
[ESPN] Mets’ losing streak reaches 11 games; longest since 2004 – The losses are piling up for the New York Mets, and Francisco Lindor thinks the criticism surrounding the team is about to get very loud. New York dropped its 11th consecutive game when closer Devin Williams blew a ninth-inning lead in a 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs in 10 innings Sunday. It’s the longest slide for the Mets since they lost 11 in a row from Aug. 28 to Sept. 8 in 2004. “Eleven losses, that’s a lot, whether it’s in April or any point of the season,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “But nobody is going to feel sorry for us. We have got to find a way.”
[MLB] Miller blanks his way to 1 inning shy of franchise scoreless streak record – “Success is a scary place sometimes, where you get complacent,” he said. “So I’m just staying up on everything and always focusing on getting a little better.” Better? It’s hard to imagine Miller being better than this. Forget runs. He is barely even allowing baserunners. He’s faced 38 hitters this season, and only four have reached — two via walks and two via singles. Of those 38 hitters, Miller has punched out 27 of them — a ridiculous 71.1% clip. That 71.1% strikeout rate is the highest by a pitcher in his first 11 appearances of a season since at least 1900. Put it this way: Miller struck out two of the three Angels hitters he faced on Sunday afternoon — and his strikeout rate went down.
Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) rebounds in front of guard Josh Hart (3) during the second half of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Game ones of a playoff series often show us how teams want to defend, attack, and use their strengths and weaknesses. They are also just the first step in a complex and sometimes long process that is followed up with adjustments and tweaks. Regardless, the opening game tends to give us a good idea of at least the foundation on which the teams want to build. So what did we learn about these two teams after Saturday night’s game? And what might it mean going forward?
The Hawks want to attack Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks let them.
Over the last decade and change, the league has leaned more and more into attacking the opposing team’s weakest defender and finding ways to make them defend your team’s best player. Unlike the early 2000’s and the decades leading up to that, the strength of a team’s defense is now more dictated not by the level of your best defender, but by the level of your worst defender.
And last night, the Hawks, as every other team should, and often does, decided to attack Jalen Brunson as much as possible to make him expend more energy on that end of the floor, and, even more importantly, see if the Knicks’ team defense would dip to the level of their worst individual defender.
Spoiler alert, it did not. On multiple occasions, Atlanta looked to pick on the point guard, with Jalen Johnson, Nickel Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, and Jonathan Kuminga all taking turns at going at him. And while McCollum had a great game, New York saw some success with Brunson holding his own and forcing some tough contested shots.
Knicks defense has to remain active, Hawks have to continue to work to find openings. Okongwu screens for CJ, OG does not automatically switch. CJ screens for NAW and Brunson *does* switch. NAW looks to attack, KAT helps off Daniels in the paint. pic.twitter.com/5WmsvrBkVq
The biggest surprise, though, came not from how Brunson defended those players, or from how those players attacked him. It came from a much-welcomed change under head coach Mike Brown. During large portions of the regular season, Brown opted to send help when teams decided to isolate Brunson despite talking up the captain’s individual defense. This often leads to overreacting to switches, which in turn results in open layups and open threes.
Much to my surprise, Brown chose to trust Brunson and live with the results. The Hawks likely won’t, and shouldn’t, stop attacking Brunson. But they’ll likely need to do so more effectively and more creatively to keep this series close. If and when they do, the hope is Brown doesn’t overreact and fall back into the habit of over-helping.
Josh Hart’s rebounding may be needed more than ever.
As many expected, the Knicks had Karl-Anthony Towns cross-matched onto Dyson Daniels for much of the game. In theory, this allows Towns to play off Daniels, roam, and act as a free safety. Daniels and the Hawks were able to have some success, though, in keeping Towns out of the paint defensively and having him engage in more perimeter actions. And to be fair to Towns, he had one of his best defensive games as a Knick.
But with Towns, one of their two best rebounders on the team, spending more time outside of the paint, the Knicks needed every single one of Josh Hart’s 14 defensive rebounds. Hart may have struggled to leave a positive mark on the game in his first quarter stint, but his work on the boards cannot go understated. While how and where Towns defends may change as the series goes on, chances are the Knicks will continue leaning on Hart to be the fearless rebounder he was Saturday night.
Can the Hawks help make up for Jalen Johnson’s deficiencies?
Johnson still ended the night with 23 points, but it took him 19 shots to get there. He had some big three-pointers, and had some ferocious dunks off of some nice cuts, and actions the offense ran for him. But when the game slowed down, he struggled to consistently get good shots against the Knicks, and in particular, Hart. While Johnson has the athleticism and size advantage over Hart, his lack of a mid-range game and his good, but not great, handle clearly held him back from being an even bigger and stronger force offensively.
Defensive Film: Jalen Johnson🎥
– Going under on screens, making him a pull up shooter (29% on pull-ups threes)
It’s not unforeseeable that this ends up being his worst game of the series, but it’s clear that either he needs to find different ways to score, or the Hawks need to find more ways to get him downhill and into open spaces where he can really excel. If they can do that, they’ll not only unlock his scoring, but also his passing, which is arguably his most important skill set as it pertains to how it impacts the Hawks’ offense.
Towns needs to be great, and he was
We’ve seen multiple iterations of Towns and his role on the offensive end this season. In the early part of the season, we saw Brown try to turn him into a Domantas Sabonis-esque player with little success. We then saw Towns play a lesser role in the offense through the middle of the regular season. Then we saw Towns really find a solid balance between attacking, not forcing things, being decisive, and utilizing his passing abilities. And last night, we saw a lot of that.
We're back to the well: KAT as a hub, 30+ feet from the basket.
While he did have a few turnovers where he got a bit overzealous or just overthrew passes after making the correct read, he was instrumental in the Knicks winning this game. Besides playing amazing defense, Towns started the game off being the focal point of an offense that saw Mikal Bridges and Brunson get easy looks off his gravity and decision-making. It was justifiably Brunson’s 19-point first-quarter outburst that got a lot of the attention, while Towns and his slow, inefficient start from the field frustrated some. But if you actually watched the game and didn’t rely simply on box scores to judge impact, Towns’ process, patience, and decision-making were every bit as important as Brunson’s.
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) April 19, 2026
Given how tightly the Hawks are playing Brunson and how nobody on the Hawks can defend Towns, he’ll likely continue to have a large role both as a passer and scorer this series. The more Towns can serve as an outlet and initiator for Brunson, the easier his job becomes.
Brunson may decide the floor of this team, but the ceiling of how good this team can be, and how far they can go, ultimately will be decided by Towns. And if he can continue to play even remotely close to the level he did yesterday, the Knicks should feel very good about their postseason run.
Depth difference
While most NBA fans look at the matchups between the starters and what they did, it can often be the bench players and the plays on the margins that really separate the great from the good. And last night, we saw some interesting takeaways from both benches.
One, while I am not someone who often reads too much into the plus-minuses of a single game, it was clear that the Knicks’ bench outplayed the Hawks’ bench. Atlanta’s bench struggled mightily with only one player, Mouhamed Gueye, having a positive plus-minus, and the other three bench players having a plus-minus no better than -5. Shoot, former number one pick, Zaccharie Risacher, may not play another second this series after the awful 120-second stint he had last night.
Meanwhile, the Knicks’ bench was all in the positive. Mitchell Robinson, as he often is, was a force to be reckoned with and was great on both ends of the floor. Deuce McBride, despite struggling with his shot in the first half, came alive in the second half and played his usual great defense. Landry Shamet couldn’t get much to go offensively, but he took the shots they needed him to continue taking, and he fought defensively. And last, but certainly not least, is Jordan Clarkson, whose game was eerily similar to the trajectory of his rollercoaster season. He started off the game shaky, but in the second half, he looked more and more like the re-invented version of him that we saw in the final weeks of the season. One who bought into ball pressure, offensive rebounding, and ball-handling.
The Knicks’ bench was actually so solid that they even put up a very commendable effort over a several-minute span to start the fourth quarter. If the Knicks’ bench can outplay the Hawks’ bench by this much and find a way to stay even close in their minutes without Brunson and Towns, this could be a very short series.
Hack a Mitch back in play?
Robinson’s free-throw shooting has been one of the only real weaknesses in his game throughout his career. And last night, as coaches have done in the past, Quinn Snyder decided to hack Robinson. This has multiple benefits besides just sending the poor free-throw shooter to the line. It also takes the Knicks and the rest of their players out of rhythm offensively, and it also can shake up the Knicks’ rotations a bit as they have to take Robinson out before they usually like to.
In a potential seven-game series, each game, every quarter, evolves into a series of chess moves between the coaches and players. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how Snyder and Brown counterplay each other when it comes to Robinson. Brown may respond to Snyder’s strategy by playing Robinson more in the early portions of quarters to get the Hawks into the penalty earlier. Regardless of how it plays out, with Robinsons being such an impactful force, it will be an interesting strategic back-and-forth to keep an eye on.
Same old story
It’s no secret that putting a big man on Hart and putting a wing on Towns is one of the most effective ways to slow down the Knicks offense. We saw throughout most of the game just how effective Brunson, Towns, and the rest of the Knicks were when the Hawks defended them in a more traditional way. When Atlanta did eventually decide to put Daniels on Towns and Okongwu on Hart, the Knicks’ offense looked significantly worse, with most possessions leading to Hart screening for Brunson.
Atlanta made a big change to close the game out and it stalled the Knick offense. Notice Dyson on KAT and OO now on Hart. Knicks start running PnR's with Hart as a result and the offense struggled. Something to watch for next game pic.twitter.com/iKnQIAvJox
I still don’t think Snyder goes to this to start games off. Nor do I think it becomes his most-used defensive scheme. I do think, though, that he goes to it more often and earlier. And when he does, it will be interesting to see what Brown and the Knicks have planned. Over the course of the season, while the Knicks never truly found a solution to beating this strategy, they seemed to be able to do just enough. That being said, it’s been almost two full seasons of teams doing this, and they’ve yet to have a consistent enough counter. If the Hawks end up winning the series, or even push it to six or seven games, it will likely be due to this strategy continuing to haunt the Knicks.
The last time I saw a bunch of dinosaurs taking that much of a pounding, Morgan Freeman was narrating an asteroid hitting Earth in the late Cretaceous.
The Cleveland Cavaliers crushed the Toronto Raptors by 13 points in their series opener this weekend, but that margin doesn’t reflect just how strong the Cavaliers look.
They took a 21-point lead into the fourth quarter, allowing Cleveland to rest some of its key contributors, like Evan Mobley.
Our Raptors vs. Cavaliers predictions are optimistic about Cleveland’s forward, and my NBA picks are taking him to clear his points prop again in Game 2.
Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction
Who will win Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 2?
Cavaliers: The Cavaliers have too many options. The guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden was especially tricky in Game 1. If the Raptors overcommit to slowing them down, bigs like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will feast inside. Game 2 could be closer, but there’s no easy solution for the Raps' defense in this series.
Raptors vs Cavaliers best bet: Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points (-115)
Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley just topped his 16.5-point scoring prop in Game 1, doing so through only three quarters.
With the Cavs holding a comfy 21-point cushion entering the fourth quarter, Mobley logged less than six minutes and missed his only shot attempt in that final frame. He finished with 17 points on 6-for-9 shooting through 33 minutes.
The versatile 6-foot-11 forward is a matchup nightmare for the Toronto Raptors. Toronto can put big bodies on Mobley or counter with quicker defenders, but the Raps lack Mobley's combo of size and speed.
After getting shredded by the guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in Game 1 (shooting a collective 8-for-14 from 3-point range), expect Toronto to hedge harder on the Cavs’ screen-heavy schemes and not drop as much in an effort to limit those 3-point looks.
That will generate a ton of space for screeners like Mobley, who will also force bad switches and enjoy exploiting size mismatches when the Raptors’ guards swap off pick-and-roll action.
Game 2 has the same spread as the opener, so oddsmakers expect a more competitive effort from Toronto. That will keep Mobley on the floor for more minutes — or at least more involved in the offense.
Player projections range from 17.5 to as high as 18.3 points from Mobley in Game 2, with my number at 17.9.
Raptors vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
The Cavaliers have too many options, including a much stronger bench. Cleveland’s reserves made a massive impact in Game 1, contributing 40 points. Tonight’s tilt will be more competitive than the series opener, but the Cavs will take a 2-0 series lead north of the border.
Toronto can’t just trade threes for twos against the Cavs. The Raptors need production from the perimeter, and Brandon Ingram was very quiet in the opener. He missed his lone 3-point attempt, but closed the regular season with at least two triples in four of his final six games. Game models lean toward two 3-point makes from B.I. tonight.
Raptors vs Cavaliers SGP
Cavaliers moneyline
Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points
Brandon Ingram Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Tall Order
The Cavaliers' guards gashed the Raptors in Game 1. With Toronto overcommitting, Cleveland's big men have their time to shine. Both Jarrett Allen and Mobley are projected to top their scoring prop tonight after taking their foot off the gas in the final frame of Game 1.
The Raptors have gone Under the total in 27 of their last 40 away games for +12.70 units and a 29% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 2
Location
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Date
Monday, April 20, 2026
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock/NBCSN
Raptors vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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PITTSBURGH — The Flyers on Monday night will try to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series against the Penguins.
Rick Tocchet’s club has had a businesslike approach in Pittsburgh. The Flyers took Game 1 with a 3-2 decision Saturday night. They know they have plenty of more work to do against a Penguins team with all kinds of pedigree.
“Hall of Famers over there, right?” Trevor Zegras said Sunday. “We didn’t do much so far. We played a good game and won. Obviously we love winning and that’s what we’re trying to do, but far from over and far from what the main goal is here, for sure.”
Puck drop at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled for around 7 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia. Coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. ET with Flyers Pregame Live.
Here are some updates and visuals from the last few days.
Rick Tocchet said Flyers got back to their hotel, ate, got therapy and had a mindset of get ready for Game 2. Seems like he really likes the all business kind of approach. pic.twitter.com/Yp1sxgjRDv
Rick Tocchet really liked Porter Martone’s maturity. Once again the 19-year-old got better as the game went on, stuck with it. pic.twitter.com/HLJPKCBDhB
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 19: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels is out at second base in the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 19, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Joe Scarnici/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres dropped the first game in their series with the Los Angeles Angels, but they bounced backto win the next two games thanks to scoreless starts from German Marquez and Micael King. The offense was not stellar in any of the games in Los Angeles, but in the two wins, the San Diego lineup did enough to put the team over the top. The result of the back-to-back wins was the fifth consecutive series win for the Padres. San Diego will have an off day today and will open a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies in Denver on Tuesday before another day off and a trip to Mexico City to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday and Sunday. It has been a successful couple of weeks for the San Diego ballclub and the hope is that they can continue that success this week with a Colorado team that was swept in a four-game series at Petco Park to open the last homestand.
Padres News:
The San Diego offense in Los Angeles did not look like the same offense that won seven games and two series at Petco Park last week. If the Padres can find offensive consistency, it could be an exciting year in San Diego.
Mason Miller closed out the last two games against the Angels and with two more scoreless innings, he finds himself staring at Padres history, needing just one more scoreless inning to tie the record for the longest scoreless streak in the franchise’s history.
Padres fans invaded Angel Stadium for their three-game series. Watching the games and listening to the broadcasts, chants of “Holy Sheets” and cheers for successful San Diego plays were clearly heard.
Jake Cronenworth was hit in the face by a pitch on Saturday night, prompting manager Craig Stammen to remark on his toughness. Cronenworth was out of the lineup Sunday, resulting in Fernando Tatis Jr. getting another start at second base. Because of his absence, it was good to see Cronenworth made a pinch-hit appearance late in the game, even if it resulted in a strikeout.
Rosman Verdugo and Alex McCoy took the headlines for the San Diego minor league system with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas being postponed due to weather conditions.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Shortstop Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles throws out Austin Hedges #27 of the Cleveland Guardians at first during the fifth inning at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In last week’s episode of the podcast, we could tentatively feel a bit better about the Orioles because they were in first place. They went on to defend that position with a thrilling comeback win last Monday night, providing a tantalizing look at what this team could be if enough things click into place at once. The rest of the week was not so fun, as the Orioles went on to win just one game in the three-game set with Arizona and then only one game in a four-gamer in Cleveland. That’s heading the wrong direction.
This week, after watching a couple of high-impact botch jobs that resulted from playing natural infielders in the outfield, I’m feeling frustrated about the ways in which it seems like the Orioles essentially outsmart themselves by thinking that they’re so clever that they can do obviously stupid things and make them work out. “Sure, it’ll be fine if we play Blaze Alexander in center field and Weston Wilson in left field to stack the lineup with righty bats against a lefty pitcher.” “Of course we can put some completely anonymous big minor league power guy in the cleanup spot and have that go fine.”
Typing them out, they sound absolutely ridiculous, and yet the Orioles have tossed Alexander into center field multiple times now, with it costing them both times. They have done the Johnathan Rodríguez as cleanup hitter thing multiple times too. It hasn’t worked yet. There are a number of problems that the Orioles have that they can’t do much about until either players get healthy or players with no immediate replacements start playing better. Even with this patchwork roster, though, they don’t have to post Alexander in center field. They should stop being stupid while trying to be so smart.
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How are you feeling about the way things are going so far? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.
It’s a quieter slate across the Majors tonight, with only 10 games on the schedule. My MLB player props analysis will highlight Yordan Alvarez, Sonny Gray, and Dylan Cease.
Yordan Alvarez is off to a wonderful start in 2026. The Houston Astros slugger leads the big leagues with 10 home runs, and he just went deep in three straight games over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. Why not make it four?
While Alvarez only has one at-bat against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi, the right-hander has struggled at suppressing the long ball, giving up three in only four starts. Alvarez is obviously red-hot, and five of his bombs have come off righties. Cecconi has also allowed two homers to left-handed batters.
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SCHN, Guardians.TV
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts
Sonny Gray has always been a strikeout pitcher. While he’s only racked up 11 Ks in 20 1/3 innings for the Boston Red Sox, today’s start against the Detroit Tigers profiles as an opportunity to collect his fair share of swings and misses.
The righty has held the Tigers’ lineup to a .141 average over 71 at-bats, and he’s struck out 34. The likes of Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres have not been able to touch Gray. Detroit ranks 12th in team strikeouts, and they’re striking out even more on the road.
Time: 11:10 a.m. ET
Where to watch: DSN, NESN
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Dylan Cease has proven to be a massive pickup for the Toronto Blue Jays. His elite stuff has played early on, compiling a 1.74 ERA over four starts, striking out 32 in just 20 2/3 innings. Cease has cashed the over in Ks in two of his four appearances, and he even struck out eight Dodgers on April 8.
Tonight’s matchup is a clear opportunity for him to rack up the Ks.
The Jays face the Los Angeles Angels, who rank second-last in the majors with 9.70 strikeouts per game. Angels batters have 36 Ks in 86 at-bats vs. Cease. Mike Trout has six Ks in nine ABs, while Jorge Soler has 13.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet 1, FDSN West
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 2-3, +0.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Youngster beaten 10-7 at Crucible after leading 7-3
Higgins beats Carter to set up possible O’Sullivan clash
Stan Moody blew his chance to become the first teenager to win a match at the World Snooker Championship since 2005 as he fell to a 10-7 defeat to the 2024 champion, Kyren Wilson.
The 19-year-old from Halifax began his Crucible debut in blistering fashion with two centuries and two further breaks over 80 to establish an improbable 6-3 lead at the end of a memorable morning session. Moody duly extended his lead by taking the first frame upon the evening’s resumption, only for Wilson to reel off seven frames in succession to shatter the qualifier’s hopes of emulating Ronnie O’Sullivan, the last teenager to win a Crucible match 21 years ago.
‘You are loved’: father Ben Hollands shares public message
Blues player admitted to hospital on Monday night
Carlton’s management of Elijah Hollands’ public mental health episode will come under scrutiny from WorkSafe Victoria.
Hollands, 23, was admitted to hospital on Monday night, after his concerning and erratic performance in the Blues’ game at the MCG against Collingwood last Thursday night.
It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit.
See why I like Junior Caminero in a controlled environment to cap off our home run props alongside Jordan Walker and Kyle Tucker.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, April 20.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Jordan Walker
+680
Kyle Tucker
+410
Junior Caminero
+410
💲Today's HR parlay
+18198
Jordan Walker (+680)
I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.
The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.
The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
Kyle Tucker (+410)
Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.
Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.
Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA
Junior Caminero (+410)
You can’t go wrong with Junior Caminero at +400 or better, and today’s +410 price is making the card.
It’s an indoor environment that ranks as a Top-10 park for home runs to left field, and Caminero sits in the Top 5% for pulled fly balls.
It’s a great setting for a hitter with the second-fastest swing in MLB.
Chase Burns can miss bats, but he can also struggle with command and give up the long ball with a decent fly-ball rate. The Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is also showing signs that its early success could regress. The fair price here is around +370.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rays.TV
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 5-33, -2.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
Jordan Walker
Bet Now +18198
Kyle Tucker
Junior Caminero
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Former player P. K. Subban skates during the 2023 NHL All-Star Skills Competition at FLA Live Arena on February 3, 2023 in Sunrise, Florida.
P.K. Subban’s pants stole the spotlight during ESPN’s coverage of Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday.
The former 13-year defenseman, who played for the Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators and New Jersey Devils, donned a pair of oversized wide leg pants and the internet had a field a day.
“You could park a Chevy Suburban in each one of PK Subban’s pant legs right now,” wrote Rob Gucci, a social media personality and podcast host, in a now-viral X post. “This is insane.”
You could park a Chevy Suburban in each one of PK Subban’s pant legs right now. This is insane. pic.twitter.com/pnORgPvqQ8
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy added, “Totally normal pants on @PKSubban1. Find a new slant.”
In a reply tweet to Portnoy, Subban wrote: “F–king rights Dave! Wooo! u can borrow ’em anytime.”
Subban, known for his eccentric fashion style, paired the pants with a long sleeve black fitted shirt.
P.K. Subban’s pants stole the spotlight during ESPN’s coverage of Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday. X
While his pants were a hot topic online, Subban was posting Instagram videos of his live reaction during Sunday’s games.
The NHL analyst was a part of an ESPN doubleheader, with the Boston Bruins taking on the Buffalo Sabres and the Utah Mammoth facing the Vegas Golden Knights.
P.K. Subban arrives for the 2024 Navy Federal Credit Union Stadium Series at MetLife Stadium on February 17, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Getty ImagesFormer player P. K. Subban skates during the 2023 NHL All-Star Skills Competition at FLA Live Arena on February 3, 2023 in Sunrise, Florida. Getty Images
The Sabres defeated the Bruins in a 4-3 thriller, while the Knights beat the Mammoth 4-2 in the best-of-7 first-round series.
There are plenty of storylines across this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Buffalo is in the postseason for the first time since 2011.
Utah Mammoth center Nick Schmaltz (8) and Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Jeremy Lauzon (5) battle for the puck during the third period in Game 1 of a first-round NHL hockey Stanley Cup playoff series Sunday, April 19, 2026, in Las Vegas. AP
Utah is making their first-ever postseason appearance after joining the NHL in 2024.
Boston are making their 16th postseason appearance in 20 years, while Vegas are making their eighth postseason appearance in the past nine seasons.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 29: Ryan Rollins #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks poses for a portrait during media day at Fiserv Forum on September 29, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In our first pop quiz, you were tested on the most iconic player in franchise history, Giannis Antetokounmpo. And while his season might have been his most disappointing yet, Ryan Rollins just had his best. By far.
Prior to the season, the forecast on Rollins’ free agency seemed clear: as a restricted free agent, all signs pointed to his return to Cream City. Then the Bucks rescinded his qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent, and his time in Milwaukee seemed to be over. But unlike his first pitch with the Brewers, which followed a linear path—even if it did bounce to the plate—the offseason threw another curveball, with Rollins returning to the Bucks on a three-year, $12m deal. And shortly after, he rocketed to eighth in our preseason rankings, where we envisioned him battling for the starting point guard role but more likely being part of the rotation, playing steady minutes as one half of the “Mosquito Fleet” next to his “T-shirt Twin,” Cole Anthony. Remember him?
Of course, when the season got underway—and Kevin Porter Jr. went down with an ankle injury after playing just nine minutes against the Washington Wizards on opening night—Rollins assumed starting point guard responsibilities. And he did not disappoint. Solid outings against the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers turned into statement games against the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors, and it soon became apparent that Rollins was cut from a different cloth. Yet, despite his brilliance, as the Bucks continued to disappoint, even Rollins found himself subject to fans’ scrutiny, with 43% feeling he isn’t untouchable in trade talks this offseason. Regardless, 2025–26 was a major breakout season for the 23-year-old and, as the onlyplayer in the entire league to finish with averages of over 17 points, five assists, and 1.5 steals, while shooting over 40% from three, Rollins is sure to feature in end-of-season Most Improved Player voting (even if somehow he isn’t a finalist).
Tantalising totals
(1) Rollins had a career-high 36 points in a blowout loss against which Western Conference team?
Click to reveal answer
The Portland Trail Blazers.
(2) Rollins had more than 10 assists just four times for the season. What was his highest assist total: 10, 12, 14, or 16?
Click to reveal answer
14, vs. the Philadelphia 76ers.
(3) Rollins led the Bucks with 298 deflections on the season. Where did this rank him in the entire league?
Click to reveal answer
Fourth, behind Cason Wallace (339), Ausar Thompson (317), and Dyson Daniels (314).
Atypically advanced
(1) Rollins’ season-high game score of 33.0—after posting 29 points, eight assists, four rebounds, three steals, and a block, while shooting 11/13 from the field and 6/7 from three—came in a one-point win against which team?
Click to reveal answer
The Charlotte Hornets.
(2) True or false: Rollins finished with a higher clutch time* true shooting percentage than notable clutch performers Anthony Edwards (68.7%), Jamal Murray (68.6%), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (66.8%)?
Click to reveal answer
True, 69.5%.
*Clutch time is defined as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points.
Obscure optics
(1) True or false: More than 70% of Rollins’ career minutes were played this year?
Click to reveal answer
True, 2377 of his 3336 career minutes (71%) were played this year.
How did you fare? Share your score in the comments and don’t forget to drop your thoughts along with it—which stat stands out?
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 19: Joc Pederson #3 of the Texas Rangers looks on during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning.
Evan Grant writes that McKenzie Gore’s subpar road trip shows that he’s not yet at the level that the Texas Rangers hope that he can achieve.
Kennedi Landry writes that Gore allowed three home runs in a start for the first time since 2023 in the series finale loss to Seattle.
The scientific method has been long established. Unfortunately, when it comes to human endeavors experiments are a bit messy. The first step in the scientific method is to actually observe what is going on. This is where things get a bit tricky. The human mind is a peculiar thing and that is particularly true when it comes to memory. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget. Other factors color that memory and sometimes alter it. Criminal justice experts constantly tell us that eyewitness testimony is extremely unreliable.
This is why the lab exists in the first place. There is nothing more emotional than following your favorite sports team. Millions of people form their mood and rate their day based on what their favorite team does. In that universe it is easy to bypass facts and go with feelings. I may seem like a cold, unfeeling analyst but I am a fan too. I have emotional reactions to what I see. The numbers insulate me from that. That’s why the lab exists.
So, we get to the question of slow starts. Before we can analyze why we have slow starts we have to establish the fact that the slow starts have been patterns. If we go through the annals of this current run we can split the Astros dynastic period into two relatively equal parts. There are the A.J. Hinch Astros and the Dusty Baker/Joe Espada Astros. We eliminate 2020 because there was no April. So, we are splitting it to 2015 to 2019 and then 2021 to 2026. We will throw in March into April when it is applicable.
2015-2019
Wins
Losses
2015
15
7
2016
7
17
2017
16
9
2018
20
10
2019
18
12
Total
76
55
If we look at the winning percentage we see .580 winning percentage. That would be equivalent to a 94-68 record in a 162 game schedule. Obviously, 2016 is an outlier and it is the only season in that run where the team did not make the playoffs. In fact, it was the only season before 2025 where the Astros did not make the playoffs. If we remove that season then the winning percentage shoots up to .645. That would be equivalent to a 104-58 record. So, if it felt like those Astros teams got off to fast starts it is because they did.
2021-2026
Wuns
Losses
2021
14
12
2022
11
10
2023
15
13
2024
10
19
2025
16
14
2026
8
15
Total
74
88
Obviously, I don’t need to translate this to a 162 game record. Given that this team went to the playoffs in four of the five seasons and came within one game of the playoffs in the other one, these starts are pretty significant. So, the first step of the scientific method is complete. There is in fact a difference between these two eras. We now move onto the next step in the process. This is where we come up with a hypothesis we can test. Unfortunately for us this will be the last step in the process. I can think of two possibilities and I will leave the reading audience to determine which one they think is more plausible.
Hypothesis One: Finding the sweet spot
One of the things you will notice when looking at the records above is that they seem to get progressively worse as we get closer to the present. When the Baker era began, the entire dynasty was intact. With each passing year, one more brick was kicked out of the wall. First it was George Springer. Then it was Carlos Correa. We then moved on to Justin Verlander (a couple of times), and finally Framber Valdez.
Each manager has their own style. Joe McCarthy might have been the best manager in baseball history record wise (.627 with the Yankees). He plugged in the same lineup every day and sat in a rocking chair. That’s easy to do when you have Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Earle Combs, and Tony Lazzeri. Baker will be a Hall of Fame manager someday and his style was wholly different. Espada seems to have taken on that style in the interim, so it makes sense to lump them together.
The Astros have used a different lineup every game this season. It wasn’t quite that bad in seasons past, but the pattern is still there. Of course, necessity is the mother of invention. When you don’t have thoroughbreds you have to do some experimenting. So, both Baker and Espada spent the early months figuring out what players could do and when they could do them. That meant how to shape platoons, what the batting order should be, and which relievers we could trust.
One old baseball adage is that Memorial Day is the day when performance stops being a trend and become something resembling reality. Unfortunately, that means another month of flailing around. Some of that is due to the “back of the baseball card” mentality. Yet, some of that is genuine small sample size issues. This is particularly true when looking at relievers. Obviously, Espada in particular has come under fire for how he uses his relievers. Either way, by the end of May this team finds its level based on figuring out who they can trust that particular season.
Hypothesis Two: It’s a training issue
My podcast partner and I (“Born on the Bayou Sports”) raised this issue earlier this year. We were wondering why certain pitchers weren’t building up innings this spring. Suddenly, you have four starting pitchers on injured reserve. Luck? Possily. Coincidence? Maybe. However, when you add that to the total number of injuries the team has faced in recent seasons in the early going.
Obviously, the change in trainers this offseason put that in the spotlight. Last season, the Astros had the most injuries in baseball and they are currently in the lead in that department. Is it an aging roster? That could be one explanation. Maybe it is just bad luck. The team was extremely healthy in 2022 when they won the World Series. Some seasons just go that way. Yet, when you have two consecutive seasons of players going down at a record pace it is difficult to chalk that up to chance.
This leaves us with two possibilities (of which both can be true). Either there are still issues with the day to day treatment of aches and pains. There are still issues with how often those are happening, how often they keep players from playing, and possibly their return to play. The second possibility comes back to Spring Training itself. Are these players ramping up in the right way during Spring Training? Are they getting ready?
Putting it all together
Of course, both is a possibility. Neither is a possibility. We are not in a position to test these hypotheses yet. That will have to come later. It would involve breaking down how the other 29 teams do business and determining how the Astros are different if at all. My own hypothesis is that both are true in part. A fungible roster demands time to figure out exactly who can do what. There are also probably some things the team could do differently to remain more healthy and start faster out of Spring Training. What do you think?
Yordan Alvarez
Sonny Gray
Dylan Cease
Jordan Walker
Kyle Tucker 
Junior Caminero
