
Despite selling at the deadline, battling key injuries for months, and treading water all season long, the Orioles find themselves in sole possession of a playoff spot with less than a quarter of the schedule left to play. It has been an unlikely about face that has seen the O’s beat up on the AL’s best team and take advantage of a dip in form for just about every other team in the mix for the final wild card spot.
The Orioles have been one of the sport’s bigger disappointments to this point. They came into the season with aspirations of a deep playoff run after making several aggressive moves over the winter. But maintaining momentum has proven difficult. Their offense hasn’t been the juggernaut they hoped it would be, and several key injuries have cut into the depth they had built up. All of that has kept the O’s on the outside of the playoff picture for much of the summer, but that all changed over the weekend.
This recent improvement has perked up the ears of a fan base that had (understandably) written the team off a long time ago. Now, instead of begrudgingly turning our sporting attention towards football and the fall, we can lock back into baseball for a few weeks longer, at least. Can this team give us intriguing baseball heading into September? What about October? They have as good of a case to make as any of the AL’s many other mid-tier teams.
Their best hitters are producing
It’s not that the lineup has been “bad” this season, but they haven’t been nearly as good as they were supposed to be. The plan was for this to be a borderline Top 5 unit. Instead, they have fallen somewhere between 10th and 15th in MLB in most categories. Much of the blame for that underperformance goes to the team’s best hitters failing to reach their career averages. But there has been some improvement in that department recently.
Pete Alonso is leading the way with his 218 wRC+, four home runs and a .660 slugging percentage this month. Tyler O’Neill, signed prior to the 2025 season to be a mid-lineup threat, is having his best stretch as an Oriole, collecting a 163 wRC+ in August. Colton Cowser is still striking out a bunch, but he is balancing it with power (.633 slugging, three home runs in August). And, of course, there’s Gunnar Henderson.
Henderson was supposed to be an MVP candidate, in the conversation as the league’s top shortstop. It just hasn’t happened for him this season. That won’t matter as much if he can keep swinging the bat like the has the last two weeks. Since August 1, Henderson owns a 141 wRC+ and it deserves to be even higher. His .227 batting average and .409 slugging percentage are well below his .333 expected batting average and .610 expected slugging. The process for Henderson is solid right now. The results will follow.
Reinforcements are on the way
While it’s great that some of the highest paid and familiar players are carrying the offensive load right now, in order for the Orioles to maintain their hold on a playoff spot they are are going to need some help. Giving regular at-bats to Christian Franklin, Yohel Pozo, and Jeremiah Jackson probably won’t get it done.
Fortunately, the injury news in Birdland has been positive this week.
Samuel Basallo, nursing right shoulder inflammation since July 20, began a rehab assignment with Norfolk on Sunday. He went 1-for-4 with a double. It’s likely that he will need a few more days to knock the rust off before he returns to the Orioles everyday lineup. Getting his bat back into the catching mix will be a big boost over his current replacements. Pozo has good top line numbers (.286/.313/.500), but is playing well above his peripherals (.231 xBA, .308 xSLG). Carlos Narváez has provided good defense but nothing at the plate (.103/.161/.103) since joining.
Blaze Alexander, who has been out since July 13 with a hand fracture, took batting practice and fielding work over the weekend. He is expected to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week. Prior to his injury, Alexander was the Orioles hottest hitter. He had a .807 OPS on the season, which was weight down by a particularly poor April. From May 1 through his injury, Alexander was hitting .365/.414/.528 and had begun to take over the everyday job at third base, though he had spent time all over the field. His eventual return will allow Craig Albernaz to mix and match his lineup while greatly improving the team’s depth.
This is the most capable Orioles rotation in a long time
Mike Elias vowed that he would add a “frontline” starter this past offseason. The starter he identified to fill that void was Shane Baz, who the Orioles traded for from the Rays and then inked to a five-year extension through the 2030 season. Elias took some heat for it at the time since Baz wasn’t exactly a proven big league arm, though his talent was undeniable. Well, nearly five months into the 2026 season it is looking like a decent bit of business.
Baz has stayed healthy, made each of his starts, and leads the team with 139.1 innings pitched. FanGraphs credits him with 3.0 fWAR, which is also tops on the team and ranks 16th in MLB among starting pitchers. Baseball Reference is not as kind (1.5 bWAR). But no matter how you slice it, has been a positive influence on the team with his 103 ERA+ and 3.34 FIP.
Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Young fill out the rest of the core quartet of the O’s rotation, and each of them have been above average arms for the team this year. Bradish, in his first full season after Tommy John surgery, has seen his strikeouts dip and walks rise but manages to compete each time out. Rogers’s season totals (4.15 ERA) obscure how good he has been since the start of June (13 starts, 77 innings, 2.45 ERA, 2.85 FIP). And Young may be the most dependable of the bunch. He has allowed more than three runs in a start just twice since May 1, and the Orioles are 14-3 in games he has pitched since then as well.
In times of turmoil for the offense, the rotation is what has kept the Orioles afloat. Since June 1, they have been worth 6.4 fWAR, the fourth-highest mark in the sport. Much of that comes from the 353.1 innings they have pitched, which is also fourth in MLB during that stretch. But there is quality (3.71 FIP, fourth in MLB) and depth that is hard to find elsewhere in the league.
The rest of the AL is simply bad
You can see the elements of a good team within these Orioles. But we also have 120+ games of data to suggest that these guys are, collectively, a middling club. That’s not an insult. It’s reality. And in this year’s American League it might be enough to make the playoffs anyway.
The Orioles are one of seven teams in the AL that is currently under .500 and within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot. All of them are flawed, and one of them is going to make the playoffs. Why not the Orioles?
The 563 runs the Orioles have scored is more than any other team in the AL East, and only two of the other teams (Twins, Tigers) in the mix for the final wild card spot have scored more. As discussed earlier, there is reason to think the lineup could be even more productive down the stretch.
The Orioles are the only one of the seven clubs in the middle of the AL that has a winning record (30-28) in games against teams above .500. Maybe that comes in handy this week with games against the Rays and Yankees on the docket.
Since July 1, the Orioles are 22-15, which is the fourth-best mark in the AL. The Tigers are the only team in the mix that has played better (23-15) from that date.
Long story short, while it has been an insanely frustrating season to follow up close, and there are clear holes on this roster that need to be cleaned up heading into 2027, there is also plenty of reason to think that these Orioles can squeeze their way into the playoffs this year.









