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It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit. 

See why I like Junior Caminero in a controlled environment to cap off our home run props alongside Jordan Walker and Kyle Tucker. 

These are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, April 20. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Jordan Walker	+680
Kyle Tucker	+410
Junior Caminero	+410
💲Today's HR parlay	+18198

Jordan Walker (+680)

I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.

The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.

The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV

Kyle Tucker (+410)

Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.

Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.

Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA

Junior Caminero (+410)

You can’t go wrong with Junior Caminero at +400 or better, and today’s +410 price is making the card.

It’s an indoor environment that ranks as a Top-10 park for home runs to left field, and Caminero sits in the Top 5% for pulled fly balls.

It’s a great setting for a hitter with the second-fastest swing in MLB.

Chase Burns can miss bats, but he can also struggle with command and give up the long ball with a decent fly-ball rate. The Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is also showing signs that its early success could regress. The fair price here is around +370.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rays.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Jordan Walker	Bet Now +18198
Kyle Tucker
Junior Caminero

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that McKenzie Gore’s subpar road trip shows that he’s not yet at the level that the Texas Rangers hope that he can achieve.

Kennedi Landry writes that Gore allowed three home runs in a start for the first time since 2023 in the series finale loss to Seattle.

Grant checks in on the options available to the Rangers should ailing Robert Garcia miss time with a sore shoulder.

Landry’s newsletter covers to rise of Gavin Collyer to the big league bullpen, despite debuting in a minor league park.

And, ESPN’s David Schoenfield has an extremely early look at the players that could be available at the trade deadline.

Have a nice day!

The scientific method has been long established. Unfortunately, when it comes to human endeavors experiments are a bit messy. The first step in the scientific method is to actually observe what is going on. This is where things get a bit tricky. The human mind is a peculiar thing and that is particularly true when it comes to memory. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget. Other factors color that memory and sometimes alter it. Criminal justice experts constantly tell us that eyewitness testimony is extremely unreliable.

This is why the lab exists in the first place. There is nothing more emotional than following your favorite sports team. Millions of people form their mood and rate their day based on what their favorite team does. In that universe it is easy to bypass facts and go with feelings. I may seem like a cold, unfeeling analyst but I am a fan too. I have emotional reactions to what I see. The numbers insulate me from that. That’s why the lab exists.

So, we get to the question of slow starts. Before we can analyze why we have slow starts we have to establish the fact that the slow starts have been patterns. If we go through the annals of this current run we can split the Astros dynastic period into two relatively equal parts. There are the A.J. Hinch Astros and the Dusty Baker/Joe Espada Astros. We eliminate 2020 because there was no April. So, we are splitting it to 2015 to 2019 and then 2021 to 2026. We will throw in March into April when it is applicable.

2015-2019

If we look at the winning percentage we see .580 winning percentage. That would be equivalent to a 94-68 record in a 162 game schedule. Obviously, 2016 is an outlier and it is the only season in that run where the team did not make the playoffs. In fact, it was the only season before 2025 where the Astros did not make the playoffs. If we remove that season then the winning percentage shoots up to .645. That would be equivalent to a 104-58 record. So, if it felt like those Astros teams got off to fast starts it is because they did.

2021-2026

Obviously, I don’t need to translate this to a 162 game record. Given that this team went to the playoffs in four of the five seasons and came within one game of the playoffs in the other one, these starts are pretty significant. So, the first step of the scientific method is complete. There is in fact a difference between these two eras. We now move onto the next step in the process. This is where we come up with a hypothesis we can test. Unfortunately for us this will be the last step in the process. I can think of two possibilities and I will leave the reading audience to determine which one they think is more plausible.

Hypothesis One: Finding the sweet spot

One of the things you will notice when looking at the records above is that they seem to get progressively worse as we get closer to the present. When the Baker era began, the entire dynasty was intact. With each passing year, one more brick was kicked out of the wall. First it was George Springer. Then it was Carlos Correa. We then moved on to Justin Verlander (a couple of times), and finally Framber Valdez.

Each manager has their own style. Joe McCarthy might have been the best manager in baseball history record wise (.627 with the Yankees). He plugged in the same lineup every day and sat in a rocking chair. That’s easy to do when you have Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Earle Combs, and Tony Lazzeri. Baker will be a Hall of Fame manager someday and his style was wholly different. Espada seems to have taken on that style in the interim, so it makes sense to lump them together.

The Astros have used a different lineup every game this season. It wasn’t quite that bad in seasons past, but the pattern is still there. Of course, necessity is the mother of invention. When you don’t have thoroughbreds you have to do some experimenting. So, both Baker and Espada spent the early months figuring out what players could do and when they could do them. That meant how to shape platoons, what the batting order should be, and which relievers we could trust.

One old baseball adage is that Memorial Day is the day when performance stops being a trend and become something resembling reality. Unfortunately, that means another month of flailing around. Some of that is due to the “back of the baseball card” mentality. Yet, some of that is genuine small sample size issues. This is particularly true when looking at relievers. Obviously, Espada in particular has come under fire for how he uses his relievers. Either way, by the end of May this team finds its level based on figuring out who they can trust that particular season.

Hypothesis Two: It’s a training issue

My podcast partner and I (“Born on the Bayou Sports”) raised this issue earlier this year. We were wondering why certain pitchers weren’t building up innings this spring. Suddenly, you have four starting pitchers on injured reserve. Luck? Possily. Coincidence? Maybe. However, when you add that to the total number of injuries the team has faced in recent seasons in the early going.

Obviously, the change in trainers this offseason put that in the spotlight. Last season, the Astros had the most injuries in baseball and they are currently in the lead in that department. Is it an aging roster? That could be one explanation. Maybe it is just bad luck. The team was extremely healthy in 2022 when they won the World Series. Some seasons just go that way. Yet, when you have two consecutive seasons of players going down at a record pace it is difficult to chalk that up to chance.

This leaves us with two possibilities (of which both can be true). Either there are still issues with the day to day treatment of aches and pains. There are still issues with how often those are happening, how often they keep players from playing, and possibly their return to play. The second possibility comes back to Spring Training itself. Are these players ramping up in the right way during Spring Training? Are they getting ready?

Putting it all together

Of course, both is a possibility. Neither is a possibility. We are not in a position to test these hypotheses yet. That will have to come later. It would involve breaking down how the other 29 teams do business and determining how the Astros are different if at all. My own hypothesis is that both are true in part. A fungible roster demands time to figure out exactly who can do what. There are also probably some things the team could do differently to remain more healthy and start faster out of Spring Training. What do you think?

The Phillies just suffered their worst homestand in quite a while. They didn’t hit well, they didn’t field well, they (honestly) didn’t pitch very well either. It’s not good baseball to watch, it’s not good baseball to analyze right now. Is there anything going right for the team at this moment?

Bryce Harper has been hot of late. That’s been cool.

Brad Keller has been better lately as well after his season got off to a rocky start.

Cristopher Sanchez is awesome again. There are some good things happening for the team; they’re just hidden under about ten feet of garbage.

The question for today is: of all the things that are going wrong for the Phillies at the moment, which is likeliest to turnaround quickly for them? Some of the hitters are hitting so badly at the moment, the laws of averages seem to be in their favor at some point that they’ll bounce back. The fielding can’t be this bad (can it?). At some point soon, there has to be positive regression with something…..but what?

Columbus Clippers 12, Iowa Cubs 8

Clippers improve to 11-10

It was a home run derby in Columbus on Sunday, led by none other than the scorching hot Cooper Ingle, who went 3-for-4 with two home runs and a walk.

Ingle now has a ridiculous 1.403 OPS to begin the season. It’s one of the hottest start of any prospect in all of minor league baseball.

Crazy as it sounds, Ingle was just one of three different Clippers who had three hits. Nolan Jones went 3-for-4 with a walk while Milan Tolentino went 3-for-5 with a home run and a triple.

Kahlil Waton also impressed, going 1-for-3 with a double, two walks, a stolen base and three runs scored while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with a home run and a hit by pitch. Stuart Fairchild also went 2-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base.

With that kind of offense, Columbus didn’t need much pitching to win … and they didn’t get much pitching. Starting pitcher Pedro Avila allowed five runs on nine hits with three strikeouts and a walk in 5.0 innings. Koby Allard allowed another three runs in his lone inning of work.

The big standout was Daniel Espino, who again tossed a scoreless inning to close out the win while striking out two. He’s getting closer folks.

Akron RubberDucks 4, Harrisburg Senators 0

RubberDucks improve to 10-5

Tugboat!

What an impressive turn from the Akron pitching staff, led by none other than Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson. Wilkinson was flat out sensational in this game, throwing 5.0 perfect innings with six strikeouts. He was pulled after throwing 70 pitches.

While the bullpen wasn’t able to keep the perfect game going, it did preserve the no-hitter. Matt Jachech pitched a scoreless frame with one walk. Magnus Ellerts walked two and struck out two in a scoreless inning. Jay Driver walked one in his scoreless frame and then Carey closed out the combined no-hitter after walking a pair of batters.

Offensively, Alfonsin Rosario left the game after a first-inning RBI double. I hope he’s OK.

Wuilfredo Antunez homered, Jake Fox walked twice, Angel Genao doubled and Jose Devers went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base. Nick Mitchell also walked and was hit by a pitch.

Lake County Captains 6, Fort Wayne Tincaps 9

Captains fall to 7-8

Lake County spoiled another excellent start from Franklin Gomez. Gomez allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits with five strikeouts and just one walk in 5.0 innings.

Unfortunately, piggy-back partner Michael Kennedy got blistered for six runs on six hits in his 2.0 innings of work to take the loss.

On offense, Jace LaViolette was given an opportunity to lead off and he responded by blasting his second home run of the season, also walking.

No one had a multi-hit game, but Aaron Walton impressively went 1-for-2 with two walks. Bennett Thompson and Anthony Silva also both reached base safely twice, going 1-for-3 with a walk apiece and Dean Curley doubled.

Hill City Howlers 3, Wilson Warbirds 5

Howlers fall to 9-6

For his second straight start, Chase Mobley dominated opposing hitters, this time tossing 3.2 no-hit shutout innings with four strikeouts and a pair of walks.

Petty immediately followed by giving up three runs on six hits in his 3.0 innings of work. The game was still within reach until Keegan Zinn took the mound in the bottom of the ninth inning with the game tied 3-3 and quickly gave up a two-run walk-off home run.

Outfield prospect Robert Arias continued his scorching streak, going 2-for-3 with a home run, a walk and a stolen base. Dauri Fernandez went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base and Anthony Martinez went 1-for-3 with a walk.

After a difficult two-week stretch, it was nice for the Yankees to have a laugher series against the Royals. They swept their first series since the opener against the Giants, the pitching staff bouncing back to limit Kansas City to six runs across the three games while Aaron Judge and Ben Rice are really finding their power strokes to lead an offensive awakening. They enter a well-deserved offday atop the standings in the AL East.

Many of their AL rivals were also in action on Sunday, so let’s recap the events of those games.

Houston Astros (8-15) 5, St. Louis Cardinals (13-8) 7

The Cardinals thoroughly outclassed the Astros in this series, scoring 23 runs in three games to continue their surprising start to the campaign just a half-game back of first. Matthew Liberatore gave St. Louis six strong innings, limiting Houston to a run on three hits and two walks with four strikeouts, the lone damage coming in the form of a Carlos Correa sac fly in the third after Taylor Trammel reached on a one-out triple. The Cardinals then ambushed starter Mike Burrows for four runs in the fifth. Masyn Winn and Pedro Pagés singled around Nathan Church walk to load the bases with two outs. Victor Scott II walked to force home the first run, JJ Wetherholt singled home the next two, and Iván Herrera singled home the fourth.

Houston wouldn’t go quietly, responding with three runs in the eighth to level the scores. Yordan Alvarez became the first in MLB to ten home runs with a two-out solo shot. Jose Altuve singled, Christian Walker walked, and a wild pitch advanced the pair to scoring position allowing both to come home on an Isaac Paredes game-tying, two-run single.

That sent the game to extra-innings, where a crucial error by Brice Matthews at third gifted St. Louis the win. His misplay of a Jordan Walker grounder followed by a Ramón Urías HBP loaded the bases, and Winn won the game with a bases-clearing triple. Houston would attempt to rally, an Altuve RBI single cutting the deficit to two, but it wasn’t enough to prevent their 13th loss in their last 16 games.

Seattle Mariners (10-13) 5, Texas Rangers (11-11) 2

Bryan Woo gave the Mariners seven strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk along with six strikeouts. He clearly ran out of steam in that seventh inning, allowing a Corey Seager leadoff walk, Wyatt Langford single, and Joc Pederson HBP to load the bases, followed by a Josh Jung sac fly and Evan Carter RBI double. Offseason trade acquisition MacKenzie Gore was nowhere near as sharp for Texas, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk in five innings.

All five of Seattle’s runs came vie three home runs off Gore. Rob Refsnyder led off the first with a solo shot, his first hit in a Mariners uniform. J.P Crawford struck with a two run bomb in the second after Mitch Garver drew a leadoff walk. Randy Arozarena capped off the trio with a two-run blast of his own after Julio Rodríguez kept the fifth inning alive with a two out single.

Toronto Blue Jays (8-13) 10, Arizona Diamondbacks (13-9) 4

On the verge of being swept for the second time this season, the Blue Jays bats broke out for double digit runs to salvage a win. Eight of the ten came in the first inning to tie a franchise record against starter Ryne Nelson, who managed to record just one out after allowing eight hits and a walk. In fact, the first eight Blue Jays reached safely as they sent an eventual 12 batters to the plate. Doubles from Kazuma Okamoto and Nathan Lukes were the big blows in the inning, Toronto scoring all their runs despite the ball not leaving the yard in the frame.

Okamoto would later add a solo home run to lead off the third while Lukes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. each contributed three-hit afternoons. Kevin Gausman has been one of the best starters in baseball to open the season, so spotting him an eight-run first inning lead pretty much meant the game was over before Arizona had even come to bat. He pitched six innings of two-run ball, allowing seven hits and a walk against four strikeouts. The Diamondbacks scored consolation runs in second and sixth, the lone bright spot a pinch-hit, two run home run by Jorge Barrosa in the seventh.

Detroit Tigers (12-10) 6, Boston Red Sox (8-13) 2

Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet entered the season as the consensus favorites in the AL Cy Young race. Skubal lived up to that billing with six innings of one-run ball and ten strikeouts to silence Boston on Saturday, but Crochet couldn’t return serve. Coming off his worst start with the Red Sox — 11 runs in 1.2 innings against the Twins — Crochet allowed five runs on seven hits including a pair of homers in five innings against Detroit. It’s the third of his five starts in which he has allowed at least five runs, the southpaw left with a 7.88 ERA after departing. On the otherside, Framber Valdez authored another stellar start for the team that signed him to a three-year, $115 million deal over the offseason. He held Boston to a run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in six innings, meaning he has allowed one or fewer earned runs while lasting at least six innings in four of his five starts with the Tigers.

The two sides traded runs in the first, Dillon Dingler opening the scoring with and RBI double before Willson Contreras answered in the bottom half with a solo home run. But then Detroit struck for four runs in the fifth, all with two outs after Crochet struck out the first two batters of the frame. Jahmai Jones crushed a solo blast followed by a walk from Gleyber Torres and single from Matt Vierling to set up a three run wall scraper from Dingler, giving the starlet catcher four RBIs on the day.

There would be no more scoring until the ninth, when again the teams traded runs. Torres collected an RBI single in the top half and Caleb Durbin an RBI double in the bottom of the frame to bring us to our final score, 6-2.

Other Games

Cleveland Guardians (13-10) 8, Baltimore Orioles (10-12) 4

It was the José Ramírez show in Cleveland, the future Hall of Famer slugging a pair of solo home runs as the Guardians tagged Orioles Opening Day starter Trevor Rogers for six runs on six hits and two walks in five innings. Taylor Ward crushed a three-run blast in the Orioles’ four-run fifth to make this a one-run game, but Cleveland restored their cushion by scoring a pair in the eighth. Rookie Juan Brito hit a two-run double and Brayan Rocchio collected three hits and three RBIs batting ninth.

Worcester: W, 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Red Sox farm, unlike the Major League team, actually enjoyed solid pitching all the way around on Sunday. Worcester’s shutout performance in Nashville (Brewers AAA) was courtesy of Michael Sansone. The 26-year-old Connecticut native may well end up putting together some innings on the Major League squad in 26; he lacks any sort of velocity but gets by with control. He allowed just two hits in six innings; Nate Eaton beat that on his own, including his 2nd home run of the series in the midst of his three-hit afternoon. This one, with Sansone’s great start, was never really in doubt, but the WooSox may have benefitted from a bit more offense. Still, you can’t look a gift horse that is a 4-2 win in the mouth, especially when it comes at the heels of five straight losses and a total of five runs in three games combined.

Portland: W, 5-3 (BOX SCORE)

Hayden Mullins, the former Auburn Tiger and 2022 12th round draft pick, had perhaps the best outing of his professional career. Mullins has more velocity and less control than Sansone, but the latter didn’t seem to be the case in Altoona (Pirates AA), as he rolled through eight scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and just one walk. That’s not to say he was constantly throwing strikes; 30 of his 76 pitches were outside the strike zone, but the strikes came at the right times. He’s been struggling so far to start 2026, so this was nice.

Day off for Franklin Arias, and in his absence the team had its three top slots in the lineup each strike out multiple times. In fact, the Sea Dogs only had one extra base hit on Sunday from Miguel Bleis. Even still, they strung together a W.

Greenville: W, 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The only problem with Marcus Phillips’ start on Sunday against Bowling Green (Rays High-A) was that it didn’t go super long. It lasted just 58 pitches, but he amassed seven strikeouts, and then things went south in the bullpen after Phillips was pulled in the fourth. But, things didn’t go SO well for the Hot Rods that the Drive couldn’t take the lead back in the bottom of the eighth with a Natanael Yuten RBI single, which had a .268 WPA. As the entire arm emerged victorious, this win was also not pretty, but it was a win!

Salem: W, 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

The RidgeYaks break their five-game losing streak holding a total run differential of -18 with a defense-first win. They got to scoring runs on Hickory (Rangers A) early, holding a 4-0 lead, peaking with Starlyn Nunez’ RBI triple, and the bullpen held their own following a short, but good, start by Kansas native Barrett Morgan. Prior to this game, the Crawdads had hung a total of 8.8 runs a game on Salem, so this was a refreshing display of effective pitching by committee!

The Orioles had a bad week. They lost two series, and went a combined 2-5 in that span. Neither win was particularly easy, the first requiring them to climb out of a 7-1 hole and the second seeing them take until the eighth inning to score at all. It’s just the latest development in what has been a challenging start to the 2026 campaign. Despite these struggles, could there still be reason for optimism with these Orioles?

Let’s start with the obvious, these Orioles were only “supposed” to good, not great, anyway. Think back to pre-season predications across the industry. Most outlets had the O’s pegged for 85 or so wins. Some more, some less. That represents a step up from 2025, certainly, but nowhere near elite contender status. If things went right for them, maybe they get t0 90 wins and snag the AL East crown. If they crater, they might not even be a .500 squad.

Well, with the season less than a month old, you would have to say their luck has been more bad than good.

Injuries have, yet again, been a problem. Before the season even started they lost Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, their projected starting second and third basemen, respectively, to the IL. Andrew Kittredge, potentially the team’s set up man, and Keegan Akin, an important middle-inning option, joined them on the shelf later in spring. Since the regular season has begin, they’ve added starting catcher Adley Rutschman, starting right fielder Tyler O’Neill, rotation piece Zach Eflin, bench bat Ryan Moutcastle, and left-handed reliever Dietrich Enns to the infirmary report. It has been a blood bath.

As a result, new manager Craig Albernaz has had less flexibility to adjust a lineup that has failed to meet expectations early.

Samuel Basallo is still getting his feet under him and carries a meager 49 wRC+ in his first full season. He’s starting behind the plate most days anyway, because the other option is Sam Huff, a fringy backstop with limited offensive upside.

Coby Mayo isn’t having the turnaround he hoped for at the plate, though his improvement in the field has been much appreciated. His 36 wRC+ is the worst on the team, and yet he is getting in the lineup regularly because injuries have eaten away the infield depth the team once had.

The outfield is a work in progress. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+) and Leody Taveras (190 wRC+) are adjusting just fine to their new team. But finding that third reliable member has been tough. Colton Cowser (39 wRC+) and Dylan Beavers (74 wRC+) have been slow out of the gate, and both are left-handed. Blaze Alexander, a righty, is getting into the mix now, though that feels like a band-aid given his lack of experience in the role, and his bat has cooled significantly the last week or two anyway.

But you probably already know about this negative stuff. Let’s talk about why the sky is not, in fact, falling.

Start with the schedule. Many folks pointed to the Orioles “soft” start to the season a reason why they needed to come out of the gate on fire. So to have a 10-12 record is disappointing. But the reality is that those perceptions were based on 2025, not 2026. The teams the Orioles have played aren’t all that bad. Ten of their 22 games have been against teams with .500 records or better. No one else in the AL East has played more than six games against teams with winning records. Obviously, you need to beat good teams in order to be a good team yourself, but the Orioles are not losing to a bunch of cellar dwellers here.

Back to the injuries. It sounds like things are improving, ever so slightly, on that front.

Rutschman is eligible to return on Tuesday, though he may play in a rehab game or two first. He is with the team on the road trip and has been participating in all of the baseball activities. Bringing him back will allow the Orioles to improve their defense behind the plate and give their offense a boost, since he was one of their top hitters when he went out.

Holliday has restarted his rehab after being pulled off of it briefly with wrist soreness. That doesn’t mean he will be ready to play at the big league level immediately, but it is a good sign. His return likely pushes Mayo back down to Triple-A. In turn, that will allow Jeremiah Jackson, who leads the team in RBI, to move over to third base. Perhaps that is an overall downgrade defensively, but it should help the lineup.

O’Neill’s return is more ambiguous since he is dealing with a concussion, which can linger. But reports have been fairly positive, and he is eligible to get back on the field any day now. Once he is back on the roster, it should be simple enough for the Orioles to DFA one of Jonathan Rodríguez or Weston Wilson, though they may instead option Cowser or Beavers if they think it would help them long term.

The point here is that the depth should be getting back to the level the team hoped for coming into the season. Depth alone doesn’t get you wins, but it does allow Albernaz to cycle through players and play the hot hand. The players coming back have a batter chance of actually getting hot than many of the names they would be replacing.

On top of that, there is some data you could, admittedly, cherry pick, to tell you that a few key players should start to see their season’s turn around.

Starting in the lineup, we are yet to get the absolute best from Gunnar Henderson or Pete Alonso. Henderson has just a .211 BABIP despite having a hard-hit rate that sits in the 88th percentile of MLB. That should balance out at some point, yielding a higher batting average, present stolen base opportunities, and create offense for the O’s. Alonso has one of the highest average exit velocities (94.7 mph, 96th percentile) and hard hit rates (57.7%, 95th percentile) in the sport. He needs to get the ball in the air more, and his career pedigree says he will. Once that happens, with runners on in front of him, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs.

Right now, the Orioles are tied for 19th in runs scored in MLB. That is only slightly better than where they finished (24th) in a disappointing 2025. In order for this team to compete for a playoff spot, they need to be a top 10 lineup. The talent that was accumulated this offseason feels like it should be able to accomplished that. But it needs its best players to perform to their ability, and they need to get healthier overall.

It’s a similar story in the rotation, where the Orioles need more out of their absolute best players: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz. None of them have performed to their ability, but the top line numbers obscure some good things. Rogers, for example, has a 4.08 ERA on the season, but his xERA is just 2.46 and his FIP is 3.69. Bradish looked much better in his most recent start, and that is reflected in the peripherals. His 5.49 ERA is massive compared to his 3.06 xERA and 3.18 FIP. The difference for Baz is not as stark, but it is there. He has a 4.91 ERA but a 4.21 xERA and 3.95 FIP. It’s not unrealistic to think each of them could lower their ERAs by up to a run in the next month. That would transform the team’s outlook.

On the whole, the Orioles’ pitching staff is right about where they need to be. They are 13th in ERA (3.91), 9th in xERA (3.60), and 13th in FIP (3.98). A middle-of-the-road pack of pitchers and a high-end lineup seemed to be the O’s path to success this year. But those numbers include their bullpen playing to a rather high level. A performance, by the way, that is largely backed up by solid peripherals. The rotation, on the other hand, has underperformed and has room to grow. That’s not a bad spot to be in if you believe in the Orioles’ ability to actually tap into those underlying numbers and get them to emerge on the field.

Of course, you can point out players that might go in the other direction too. Will guys like Jackson or Taveras keep hitting like all-stars? Probably not. Will the entire bullpen continue to pitch at such a high level? Eh, don’t bet on it. But getting more out of your stars, who are positioned at intentional spots in your lineup or rotation, should more than outweigh the dip in performance from the players coming out of nowhere to give you a temporary boost.

Things are not as bad as they have felt this last week. Given everything that has happened to the Orioles so far, they simply need to keep their head above water and give time for their talent to rise to the top. It is possible it won’t ever come to fruition, but it’s really all they can do at this point.

Mariners 5, Rangers 2

• The longest road trip of the Rangers’ 2026 season has come to an end.
• The Rangers went 4-6 on the road trip.
• Could have been better, could have been worse. 4-6 is about what I think one would expect, though.
• A very “at Seattle” loss in this one. A feckless offense, not great outing from the starting pitcher. The type of thing it feels like has become routine when in playing in Seattle.
• His last time out, MacKenzie Gore lost the strike zone, issuing six walks. This time, Gore was much better at throwing strikes — 61 of them, out of 90 pitches, with just one walk issued — but he was also way too hittable, giving up six barrels (per Statcast) and three home runs.
• All three home runs off of Gore were hard hit. The third of them, Randy Arozarena’s fifth inning two run shot, is a home run only in T-Mobile Park, per Statcast, but it was 103.8 mph with a 27 degree launch angle, so it was really hard hit, not one of those wind-blown fly balls that reaches the seats.
• In all, the Mariners had nine balls in play in excess of 100 mph off of Gore, who has shown both his immense ability and his maddening inconsistency so far in his Rangers career. You can see why the Rangers pursued him, why they prioritized him and see him as having top of the rotation potential. You can also see why he didn’t take an overwhelming package to acquire.
• The rest of the bullpen was perfectly acceptable, Tyler Alexander and Jalen Beeks maintaining their sub-1 ERAs, Gavin Collyer still not allowing an earned run in the majors, Jakob Junis pulling a Mitch Williams imitation by loading the bases with a pair of walks and an HBP before getting out of it unscathed.
• Bryan Woo bam-Woo-zled the Rangers bats for most of the game. Brandon Nimmo led off the game with a single, then didn’t allow another baserunner until Josh Smith singled with one out in the sixth.
• Texas did finally manage to get to him in the seventh, when a Corey Seager walk, a Wyatt Langford single, and a Joc Pederson HBP loaded the bases. Josh Jung hit a fly ball the opposite way that for one brief second off the bat had you hoping, but it was caught right in front of the wall for a sac fly. Evan Carter then doubled home Langford for the final Ranger run of the game.
• A Brandon Nimmo double in the eighth went for naught, and the only excitement in the ninth was Jake Burger getting to first base on a strikeout/wild pitch to lead off the inning. He was still standing there three batters later when Evan Carter grounded out for a game-ending 3U.
• It had the energy of a Sunday day game in Seattle. It had the energy of the end of a ten game in ten day road trip.
• The Rangers have played 16 games in 17 days, and after Monday’s off day they play nine in a row at home, meaning 25 games in 27 days. That’s a really hectic stretch of baseball.
• So here’s the thing about Bryan Woo.
• When I see his name in my head I go, “My name is Woo! How do you do! Now you’re gonna die!”
• Is life easy for a pitcher named Woo? It appears to be when he’s facing the Rangers…
• The thing that always bothered me about “A Boy Named Sue” was that you would think that the protagonist of the song would, at some point, just decide to go by a different name. If he’s going to “roam from town to town” to hide his shame, he could just say when he got to the new town that his name was “Frank or George or Bill or Tom, anything but Sue…”
• Thinking about it, if the narrator hated the name “Sue” so much, you’d think that he’d have gone by something else. Even if he didn’t have the scratch or initiative to go to the courthouse and do a legal name change, there’s nothing that would keep him from just telling people he encountered that his name was something else. People do that all the time. It isn’t like last year’s second half platoon first baseman’s government name is “Rowdy,” after all.
• So here’s the thing…I think that there’s something deeper going on here. The narrator, for whatever reason, didn’t want to go by a different name. Maybe it was a way for him to have an easy excuse for his own failures in life, something to blame it on. Maybe it was due to a streak of misanthropy — a desire to give people a reason to mock him, so he would be justified in hating them. Maybe it was a perverse sense of unconscious pride, the one thing that made him unique in a world full of anonymous, gray people that blurred one into the other.
• He claims that he was going to kill his father until his father gave his explanation for naming him Sue, but I don’t buy that. He wasn’t ever going to kill the man that gave him the name that he claimed to despise but nonetheless embraced. He was going to go through the motions, act like this was some act of vengeance, but ultimately he wasn’t going to land the death blow. How could he, after all, kill the man who gave him the name he had built his entire identity around?
• MacKenzie Gore’s fastball hit 96.6 mph, averaging 95.6 mph. Tyler Alexander’s fastball hit 92.2 mph. Jalen Beeks reached 95.2 mph with his fastball. Gavin Collyer’s sinker topped out at 96.8 mph. Jakob Junis reached 93.4 mph with his fastball.
• Evan Carter had a 107.7 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 107.7 mph ground out. Brandon Nimmo had a 106.5 mph double, a 103.5 mph fly out, and a 101.8 mph single. Josh Smith had a 104.9 mph single.
• And now an off day, a much needed day of rest, and then the Rangers are home for a stretch.

Meet the Mets

You bolt awake in the mountains of Carthage. You are not watching the Mets. It is 217 BC. You are the general Hannibal, and you have changed your mind. The future cannot come to pass. Rome must burn.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic

Your feelings may vary, but the Mets players are standing by Carlos Mendoza and blaming this skid on themselves and themselves only.

If you want good news, Juan Soto is still on track to return to the Mets during this upcoming homestand.

When the rest of the team returns to Citi Field tomorrow, they aren’t exactly expecting a warm welcome from the fans.

Around the National League East

Curtis Mead hit a two-run homer and three Nationals pitchers combined to shut out the Giants in a 3-0 series finale victory.

The Marlins got to Jacob Misiorowski early for three runs and never looked back from that point in their 5-3 win over the Brewers.

On Peacock, Kyle Schwarber started the Phillies’ half of the first inning with a home run, but the core of the Braves would get the last laugh as they completed a weekend sweep of the Phillies with a 4-2 win.

Around Major League Baseball

Mason Miller continued his streak of essential unstoppability, extending his scoreless streak to 32.2 innings and coming one more appearance shy of breaking the Padres’ team record.

Reaching base in his 51st consecutive game, Shohei Ohtani moved into third place on the Dodgers’ all time on-base streak leaderboard and finds himself a week’s worth of games away from first place.

With a pair of home runs on Sunday, Jose Ramirez is nine home runs and three stolen bases away from becoming the eighth member of the 300-300 club and the first since 2012.

Perhaps unaware that he is on the Dodgers instead of the Mets, Edwin Diaz has continued his early season of horrors, giving up three runs and not recording an out in his first appearance in nearly a week.

Still in uniform and using Cleveland’s incredibly long scoreboard, Austin Hedges got engaged to his girlfriend on the field after Sunday’s contest.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1967, Tom Seaver won the first of 311 major league games in his career.