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TODAY’S GAME: The Houston Astros (20-30) and Minnesota Twins (22-27) will play the rubber match of this 3-game series this afternoon at 12:40 p.m. CT.

RHP Mike Burrows (2-5, 5.72 ERA) will make his 10th start of the season as he takes on Twins RHP Joe Ryan (2-3, 3.20 ERA).

ABOUT BURROWS: RHP Mike Burrows is making his club-leading 10th start of the season this afternoon and his 2nd career start/app. vs. MIN (other was at Target Field as well). He took the loss in his last start on 5/14 vs. SEA (5 IP, 7 ER). Prior to that start, had posted a 2.50 ERA (5ER/18IP) over a 3-start span.

VS. THE TWINS: The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games vs. the Twins. HOU was 5-1 vs. MIN last season, going 3-0 at home and 2-1 here at Target Field.

The Astros won 2 of 3 in their last visit to Target Field, April 3-6 of 2025 and then later swept MIN in a 3-game series at Daikin Park, June 13-15.

Since 2021, the Astros are 10-6 at Target Field and 19-14 vs. MIN overall.

IN THE DAYTIME: Today is the 1st of 4 consecutive scheduled day games for the Astros.

All 3 games this weekend at Wrigley Field are scheduled to be day games. The last time that the Astros have played 4 consecutive day games was April 2-6 of last season (source: Elias).

ROADIES: Today is the 2nd game of a 10-game, 3-city road trip for the Astros.

After this 3-game set at MIN, they will visit Chicago for a 3-game series at Wrigley Field (Fri.-Sun.) vs. the Cubs and then travel back to Texas for a 4-game series vs. the Rangers at Globe Life Field (Mon.-Thurs).

ROADWORK: The Astros have been the AL’s top hitting team on the road in 2026. Entering today’s game, HOU leads the AL in road batting avg. (.272), OPS (.764), SLG (.422) and OBP (.342).

ROAD WARRIOR: In his young career, Brice Matthews has had success hitting on the road, as he enters today with a .282 (22×78) career avg. in 25 road games with 6 HR and 20 RBI with a .577 SLG and a .944 OPS.

In 2026, he is hitting .296 (16×54) on the road with 2 HR and an .881 OPS.

CLOSE CALLS: With last night’s win, the Astros are now 4-2 in 1-run games and 8-8 in 2-run games.

JAKE’S RETURN: Last night, Jake Meyers went 1×3 in what was his 1st game following a stint on the Injured List due to a right oblique strain (4/9-5/18, missed 36 games).

Traveling Well: Meyers is now 6×21 (.286) on the road this season after leading the Majors in road batting avg. last season with a .350 clip (min. 200 PA).

EE-SOCK: Last night’s HR for Isaac Paredes was #97 in his career. He needs 3 more HR to become the 4th MLB player born in Mexico to reach 100 career HR.

BRYAN’S SONG: After a slow start to his season, RHP Bryan Abreu has not allowed a run in his last 6 outings, covering 6.0 IP (3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO).

In his last 8 appearances, Abreu has posted a 1.12 ERA (1ER/8.0IP) with 9 K’s.

THE BIG OH: LHP Steven Okert punched out all 3 batters that he faced last night, giving him 7 K’s in his last 3.1 IP (3 app.). He has not allowed a run in his last 5 app. (5.1 IP).

AIR YORDAN: Yordan Alvarez is batting .309 with 11 doubles, 15 HR, 31 RBI and a 1.038 OPS (.419 OBP/.619 SLG).

In the AL, he ranks first in total bases (112), 2nd in OPS and SLG (.619), 3rd in OBP (.419), T-4th in HR and 4th in batting avg.

ON THE LEADER BOARD: As a club, the Astros currently lead the AL in hits (417) while ranking 2nd in OPS (.733) and SLG (.409) and 3rd in HR (60).

WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER: 1B Christian Walker is among the AL leaders in several offensive categories. He is 2nd on the club in HR (11) and T-1st in RBI (31).

Among the AL leaders, Walker ranks T-8th in RBI (31), T-10th in HR (11), 9th in total bases (90) and 11th in SLG (.500).

RECENT ROSTER MOVES: Yesterday, the Astros made the following roster moves:

-Placed RHP Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day Injured List due to right shoulder inflammation.

-Reinstated OF Jake Meyers from the 10-day Injured List.

-Reinstated RHP Nate Pearson from the 15-day Injured List.

-Optioned IF Shay Whitcomb to Triple A Sugar Land.

TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 1978 – J.R. Richard and Jose Cruz have banner days, leading the Astros to a 13-0 win over the Braves in the Dome. Richard hurls a 4-hit, complete game shutout with 8 strikeouts. Jose Cruz goes 4×5 with a HR and 6 RBI.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, May 20, 12:40 p.m. CT

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

TV: Space City Home Network

Streaming: SCHN+

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

One of the most common critiques leveled against the Yankees’ 2025-26 offseason was that they were simply running it back, and to those critics, no move was as emblematic of that than the re-signing of Cody Bellinger. Although the 2019 NL MVP had a stellar year in 2025, hitting .272 with 29 homers and accumulating 4.9 WAR, many were wary, myself included, of how his offensive approach of eschewing walks and making contact, coupled with his low bat speed, would hold up over the duration of his contract.

Well, looks like I’m having crow for dinner tonight. After Monday’s action — a game in which Bellinger drilled a game-tying two-run homer — his wRC+ is sitting at a healthy 141. What’s truly surprising, though, is how he’s doing it — his walk rate is sitting at an elite 15.2 percent, up 6.5 percent from his 2025 mark. That’s the eighth-highest increase among all qualified batters in MLB.

While we’re still in small sample size season, walk rates for batters tend to stabilize earlier than other metrics, at around 120 plate appearances; Bellinger’s now at 204. If he can maintain this clip for the rest of the year, it would be a new career high for him.

Am I getting ahead of myself here? Maybe — there’s still a lot of baseball to be played. But I’m confident that Bellinger’s revamped approach will stick, for two main reasons: one, he’s doing it without becoming overly passive and letting hittable pitches go by, and two, he’s shown the ability to drastically change his offensive profile before in his career. Without further ado, let’s dive into the data.

In a vacuum, taking walks is great. Doing so allows you to get on base more, increasing your team’s chances of scoring. However, there are drawbacks to being too passive. Big league pitchers don’t throw many meatballs; being too committed to taking pitches might result in letting some middle-middle fastballs go right by you. The ideal approach is to be selectively aggressive — knowing which pitches you can do damage on, swinging at those, and laying off the rest.

It’s difficult to quantify this skill to a T, because the “right” pitches to swing at vary between hitters. However, one statistic makes a valiant effort — SEAGER, developed by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus, and named for noted hitting extraordinaire Corey Seager, attempts to put a number on how selectively aggressive a certain hitter is, with the league leaders generally scoring in the mid-20s, and the laggards posting marks close to zero.

For our purposes, we’re interested in how 2026 Bellinger stacks up against his 2025 self. If the current version of Bellinger is drawing walks at the cost of letting hittable pitches go by, we can expect his 2026 SEAGER to be lower than his 2025 mark. Conversely, if he’s maintained or even increased his SEAGER, we can conclude that he isn’t just hunting for walks; he’s hunting meatballs too.

At first glance, Bellinger’s raw SEAGER number suggest he’s slipped a bit: while his 2025 SEAGER was 13.4, his 2026 mark to date is 11.0. However, once you contextualize his numbers against the rest of the league, they tell a different story. In 2025, Bellinger’s 13.4 SEAGER placed in the 56th percentile among all qualified hitters. In 2026, his 11.0 clip places him at… the 56th percentile, yet again. For all intents and purposes, Bellinger is just as aggressive when he needs to be now as he was in 2025. That’s truly impressive, given that he’s taking walks at a career-high clip.

Even given these encouraging underlying stats, though, some might say it’s still too early in the season to declare that Bellinger has truly changed. And for basically any other hitter, I would agree. But Bellinger? I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. After all, he’s no stranger to drastically changing his offensive profile.

When Bellinger first burst on to the scene in 2017, his age-21 season, he was a classic three-true-outcomes slugger: lots of homers, walks, and strikeouts. In 2019, a sudden decrease in strikeouts, coupled with the juiced ball, allowed him to post the best offensive numbers of his career en route to an MVP award, but his core approach remained the same — swing hard and hit the ball far. For the first three seasons of his career, Bellinger ran hard contact rates above 40 percent.

After regressing to a 112 wRC+ in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the bottom fell out for Bellinger in 2021. He hit just .165/.240/.302 over 350 plate appearances, for a wRC+ of 47. His strikeout rate ballooned to his pre-MVP levels, but his walk rate and power deserted him completely. While Bellinger “rebounded” to a 83 wRC+ the following year, many were convinced that his days as an impact bat were over.

However, Bellinger did not fade quietly into irrelevance. He underwent one of the most striking transformations I have ever seen, completely transforming himself as a hitter. He nearly halved his strikeout rate, slowed down his swing, and essentially became a contact hitter with pull-side power. The change paid off handsomely, rejuvenating his career with a 4.4 WAR season in 2023. And while he had a down year in 2024, we all know what he did in 2025.

My point is this: Bellinger has already shown himself to be extremely malleable as a player. Who’s to say he isn’t learning new tricks at this stage in his career? We’ve already established that the quality of his swing decisions hasn’t suffered as a result of his walk-taking ways. Neither has the quality of his contact; in fact, that’s improved. Bellinger’s hard contact rate slipped below 30 percent from 2023-2025; this year, he’s at 36.7 percent. The last three years saw his actual wOBA far outstrip his xwOBA; this year, he has a .376 wOBA against a .383 xwOBA. It’s like Bellinger heard every concern fans had about his signing, and made it his personal mission to alleviate all of them.

I know better than to declare a five-year contract a big win in just its first year. But I’d be lying if I said Bellinger’s stellar start hasn’t considerably improved my outlook. If he can just keep on what he’s been doing, the Yankees have a third elite offensive weapon behind Aaron Judge and Ben Rice.

It’s time for the St. Louis Cardinals to call up Jimmy Crooks. Ok, so I don’t quite feel it to an ultimatum level like the first sentence reads. Crooks isn’t the Strait of Hormuz, he’s a flawed catcher for a franchise in the middle of a stated “long-term” year. However, I do think there’s a compelling case that it’s time. So, let me lay out the case and you guys can adjudicate it in the comments.

If you’d like more context on the issue in spoken form, we hosted Kyle Reis on Redbird Rundown and had a nuanced conversation about this very issue. Yes! Nuance does exist on the internet if you know where to look. I know many in the VEB community have hopped on board with Redbird Rundown since we were welcomed into the family. We really appreciate that. If you’re interested, or missed it, here are the easy links to our full prospect check-in episode. Apple and Spotify.

Allow me to first start on a more philosophical level. This is my personal opinion, but I do not want the Cardinals to spend real assets on this trade deadline if they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot (and it’s very possible they’re still in the hunt!). That being said, I do think a winning culture is important and this team, so far, has surprised everyone with their competitiveness. The level of achievement so far does deserve support from the front office, even if it falls short of trading the farm to make this team a contender. Please, Chaim, do not do that. 

Similar to the way a pitcher can develop “loose bodies” in their elbow, I think there are some “loose bodies” on the roster that could be tightened up with pieces the Cardinals already have under control to give this current team the best chance to succeed. Jimmy Crooks is part of that plan in my mind.

Jimmy Crooks is rocking Triple A Memphis

There are parts of Crooks’ offensive profile that are on the verge of eye-popping. We all know about the power. He’s battered 13 homeruns to the tune of a 1.027 OPS and a 161 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but his under-the-hood metrics tell the story of just how real his pop is. He’s in the 98th percentile of barrel percentage. When he makes contact, he’s making excellent contact. This is leading to exit velocities that are very high end compared with his AAA peers. 

So far this season, power isn’t his only weapon. He’s running a 16% walk rate, which sits in the 83rd percentile. He’s got a robust .403 OBP. In Memphis, this is not simply a prospect that hits homers and doubles and nothing else, there’s a burgeoning on base skill that is clearly improving. 

The biggest hitch in Crooks’ game

For two paragraphs now, some of you have been mentally screaming (or maybe actually screaming) about his K rate and whiff percentage. It’s there. There’s no doubt. He’s striking out 31.3% of the time and has a whiff percentage that ranks in the 22nd percentile. These are limiting factors to his offense. This is what makes a prospect like Rainiel Rodriguez so incredible. The power is there without the whiff issues.

I do think it’s worth noting that his K rate has actually come down lately. There was a period when Crooks was swinging at everything like your family dog chases every car that drives by. His displayed a better selectivity rate that has led to his increased walk rate as well. Make no mistake, this is a swing and miss type of guy, but the ability to improve on that flaw while still bashing homers deserves a hat tip.

Defensively, Crooks has always been well regarded. Reliable metrics can be a little iffy to come across for the minors, but the aforementioned Kyle Reis reported the club loves his defensive prowess and specifically praised his ability to call games. Crooks is not a perfect prospect (who is?), but he gives off a lot of markers for a 25 year old ready for his first real big league run. Catcher is clearly a position that calls for good defense (someone alert the Cardinals about Herrera’s innings at catcher then). Everything in Crooks profile says he will be a good defender at the big league level.

Now that you’re undoubtedly convinced on Crooks the prospect (ha!), what happens with the roster? You may be aware that the Cardinals are overstocked on catchers right now. Some of them can hit. Others can’t. Some bunt. Some can’t throw to second base. Others rub Oli’s feet for all we know. So, something would have to change to call up Crooks.

I would propose something very simple. Move Pages to a backup role that suits his ability level much better. It keeps him present every day in the clubhouse to mentor Crooks as a major league catcher and prevents the kind of black hole offense he can fall into for spurts of games at a time. Ivan Herrera can still take some time at catcher, because Crooks immediately becomes a palatable option for some DH appearances. What of our king, Yohel Pozo? Honestly, if you don’t want to release him because of the clubhouse vibes and bat flips on singles, send Saggese down to Memphis for everyday playing time. Jose Fermin has performed admirably in several defensive alignments. He can simply soak up more bench innings/at bats if it’s necessary to keep Pozo. It’s laughable to have four catchers on the roster, but it’s an option.

There are continued knock on effects down the system. Leonardo Bernal gets additional development time behind the place at Memphis. If they want to be very aggressive with Rainiel Rodriguez promotions, then he’s not double blocked at Memphis and St. Louis. Crooks gets additional major league experience in a “long-term” year so that he’s more ready to catch the stable of strikeout arms when they surface in St. Louis.

Could Jimmy Crooks strikeout at rates that make his presence in St. Louis unsustainable? Yep. But, what if he doesn’t? What if he gives this lineup some serious pop in the 7th hole? This team deserves the most resources it can get to contribute to winning. This plan, while certainly containing drawbacks, leverages as many positive attributes of the current players in the system to win the maximum number of games possible.

Chaim just go tarps off and get it done. 

Let me know what you think of this line of thinking in the comments. Reasonable minds can disagree. Thanks for reading!

The Tampa Bay Rays' latest quest for a new stadium passed another hurdle Wednesday, May 20, when Hillsborough County commissioners approved a non-binding memorandum of understanding for their contribution to the $2.3 billion ballpark by a 5-2 vote.

The Rays aim to construct a domed stadium across Dale Mabry Boulevard from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' home, and not far from the New York Yankees' spring training complex. While it's been nearly two decades since the franchise first sought an alternative home to Tropicana Field — antiquated even before it first hosted Major League Baseball in 1998 — this particular effort aims to rally support from the state, county and city level.

New owner Patrick Zalupski, a prominent donor to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is counting on $150 million in state funding to build the stadium on the Dale Mabry campus of Hillsborough College. The state legislature is currently in special session.

Yet the city and state contributions are slated to be much larger. The memorandum of understanding voted on Wednesday includes $976 million from Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa, according to the Tampa Bay Times. That's a slight decrease from the roughly $1.1 billion ask by the ballclub, which had stressed a goal of June 1 to secure agreements from the municipalities.

More: Tropicana Field roof repairs looking good with Rays ready for MLB return

When you look at Jose Tena, you do not see a huge physical presence. He is a pretty unassuming guy, listed at 5’10 195 pounds. You would guess Tena was a speedy, contact oriented player if you had not seen him play before. However, his defining trait is how hard he hits the baseball and how much force he generates from his small frame.

This season, Tena has seen a huge spike in his bat speed. It has gone from a below average 70.8 MPH to a well above average 73.5 MPH. After yesterday’s game, I asked Tena how he has improved his bat speed. He told me that he was working on getting stronger, especially in the core area. Tena also said that working with the Nats hitting coaches has helped as well.

The added bat speed has resulted in a ton of hard contact. His average exit velocity is 93.2 MPH this season, which is easily a career high. Over the past couple weeks, he has been absolutely torching balls. In the past 10 days or so, Tena’s average exit velocity is 97.7 MPH. That has him sandwiched between Kyle Schwarber and Drake Baldwin on that leaderboard. 

Seeing Tena next to those two hitters when it comes to exit velocities is pretty crazy when you look at him. We all know that Kyle Schwarber is an absolute unit, with a 5’11 230 pound frame built for power. Drake Baldwin is another powerful athlete, who is listed at 225 pounds. Tena is at least 30 pounds lighter than those guys, but has been packing a similar punch.

The thunder in Tena’s bat is resulting in a ton of extra base hits. Tena is not really a guy who hits a ton of flyballs to the pull side, so most of those extra base hits have been doubles. However, as we saw last night, he has the ability to hit balls out. Tena went to James Wood territory and hit a ball into the left field bullpen off of Nolan McLean.

Nine of Tena’s last 10 hits have gone for extra bases. That sort of impact is why Blake Butera has been giving him a lot of reps at the DH spot and hits him towards the top of the order at times. For the season, Tena has a .748 OPS and 109 wRC+.

There are still areas of Tena’s game that could improve though. He has been striking out a lot this season. His K rate is hovering around 30% for the season, which is a big jump from his 22% K rate in 2025. He is taking big hacks, and there are times where he comes up empty. We saw some frustrating strikeouts from him in the first game of the Mets series.

Tena has some chase in his game and does not walk a ton either. However, he does not chase an egregious amount. His 30% chase rate is pretty close to league average. This profile does mean Tena has to do damage to have success. He has been doing just that this year.

The Nats lead all of baseball in doubles, and Tena plays a role in that. Blasting rockets into the gap is a massive part of Tena’s game. A perfect example of that is the RBI double he hit the other day that drove in Joey Wiemer. It was a 108 MPH liner right into the gap.

Jose Tena is showing that you do not have to be a huge guy to hit the ball hard. If you are strong and have good swing mechanics, you can hit the ball hard. Honestly, Dylan Crews is another example of this and is fairly similar to Tena as a hitter. Seeing Crews at his locker yesterday, I was surprised at how small he was.

When you see guys like Crews and Tena on the field hitting rockets, they appear to be bigger guys than they actually are. Not all power hitters have to look like James Wood or Aaron Judge, and that is pretty cool to see. Every time I see the unassuming Tena hit a 110 MPH rocket into the gap, I am always slightly taken aback even though I have seen it plenty of times now. 

CJ Abrams and James Wood are the engines of this Nats offense, but you need more than two guys to be an elite offense. The contributions of players like Tena, Curtis Mead, and even the recently demoted Joey Wiemer are what pushes this offense from good to great.

Texas Rangers lineup for May 20, 2026 against the Colorado Rockies: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies.

The Rangers take on the Rockies in an afternoon rubber match for their three game series. They are facing Kyle Freeland. On the one hand, Freeland has been bad this year, with a 7.22 ERA in 33 innings over 7 starts, with a 5.42 xERA and 5.40 FIP. On the other hand, Freeland is a lefty, which means that the Rangers are running out a lineup that everyone is going to be mad about.

The lineup:

McCutchen — DH

Foscue — 2B

Nimmo — RF

Jung — 3B

Duran — SS

Burger — 1B

Helman — CF

Higashioka — C

Haggerty — LF

2:10 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -120 favorites.

On Tuesday night, the Pittsburgh Pirates fell to the St.Louis Cardinals 9-6 in 10 innings. That was the ninth extra inning game of the season for the Pirates, which is second in the league right behind the New York Mets, who have 10.

The Bucs now have a record of 3-6 in extra inning games. Those six losses are the most extra inning losses by any team in the Majors. In the last four games, the Pirates have had two extra inning games. In both games, Pittsburgh blew a late-game lead. 

One of the main reasons for the Buccos extra inning struggles is their bullpen. Tuesday night’s game we saw Mason Montgomery blow the game allowing a three-run, 410-foot home run by Ivan Herrera. 

The bullpen has been an overarching issue for Pittsburgh early in this season. The Pirates don’t have a single guy that is dependable and reliable in late game situations. A lot of people thought that Dennis Santana could be that guy, but Santana blew the game in the Pirates 11-9 loss to the Phillies in 10 innings on May 15. 

Gregory Soto was also supposed to be a dependable reliever for the Bucs, but in that same game, Soto allowed three runs in the ninth inning to give up the lead. 

In the last couple of games, the starting pitching is also starting to struggle, which is just awful news for Pirate fans. Now that both the starting and relief pitching is struggling, that puts a lot of pressure on the offense to step up and produce. 

The Pirates are now on a four-game losing streak and are now last place in the NL Central. The Bucs have a record of 24-24 and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. 

The extra inning struggles is a big deal because it shows that this is a team that cannot finish. If the Pirates want to get back to winning ways and be a playoff team, they have to start finding ways to finish out close games and they need to find their guy they can rely on in the bullpen.  If they can’t do those things, it will be a long next couple of months for the Pirates.     

Bunting in Major League Baseball is the ultimate tool of confirmation bias, stretching from the most anti-analytics “he’s got a great swing” truthers to those who watch baseball on a spreadsheet — all of them can love the bunt.

Traditionalists will enjoy the old-school approach of bunting as a way to advance runners into scoring position. Some who hate the pitcher-dominant game will delight in the refusal to indulge the swing-and-miss world by just not swinging. Others, who love analytics and Moneyball, will point out that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.

But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.

First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies. 

As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical. 

First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.

Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best. 

That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason. 

As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about. 

Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?

Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order. 

And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy. 

Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask. 

I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally. 

There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better. 

Some time recently on Bluesky, I saw someone make a comment that resonated with me. They said that the thing about the Orioles this year is that it feels like every loss is going to lead to a ten-game losing streak and every win is merely a temporary reprieve. I’ve forgotten who said it; if it was you, good job.

It does feel that way about the 2026 Orioles. A segment of people, myself included, are primed to feel this way after what we experienced in April and May of last year, with the attached disappointment of the second half of the 2024 season as well. One game of a helpless pitching staff, one game of a helpless offense, it all can seem like any win is just an accident and they’ll be right back to losing the next time. They are going to have to rip off an extended stretch of good baseball to ward off this feeling. They haven’t been capable of that for quite some time.

Winning today certainly would not be enough to do it, because even if they explode for like 20 runs, that will mean nothing unless they can sustain the effort into the weekend’s series and beyond. Even so, it would be nice if the Orioles win today, because it’s more fun when they win than when they lose, you know? This is especially true for each day’s game recapper here on Camden Chat. That’s me today. So come on, Orioles. Win one for yourselves, win for your position in the standings, and also, you know, maybe win for me?

Orioles lineup

1. Taylor Ward – LF
2. Gunnar Henderson – SS
3. Adley Rutschman – C
4. Pete Alonso – 1B
5. Tyler O’Neill – RF
6. Samuel Basallo – DH
7. Jeremiah Jackson – 2B
8. Weston Wilson – 3B
9. Blaze Alexander – CF

This is the lineup in support of Shane Baz, who, as you likely already recall, was acquired by the Orioles from the Rays. Nine games into his Orioles career, Baz has two games where he has pitched well and seven games where the sum total of what happened in them is that Mike Elias looked like an idiot for trading four prospects and a draft pick for this guy and then giving him a contract extension before he ever threw a pitch for the team.

Rays lineup

1. Chandler Simpson – LF
2. Junior Caminero – 3B
3. Jonathan Aranda – DH
4. Ryan Vilade – 1B
5. Richie Palacios – 2B
6. Jonny DeLuca – RF
7. Cedric Mullins – CF
8. Hunter Feduccia – C
9. Taylor Walls – SS

Steven Matz is the Rays starting pitcher. It’s weird that Matz is on the Rays. He has a 3.86 ERA through seven starts, and will cost less over his two-year contract than Chris Bassitt will cost for one year.