Predicting what NHL teams might do at the NHL Draft every year is a tricky bit of business, and you can go at it from one of two angles. You can try and rank things based on where you believe players will be selected in the draft. Or you can also rank things based on the level of impact you believe the player will one day have in the NHL.
There's definitely some degree of overlap in the two projection styles, but it's unbelievably difficult to know for sure if a player who thrives at the pace and competition of the amateur level will be able to do the same against the bigger, stronger, faster pace of the NHL.
As we look back on The Hockey News' 2020 NHL Draft Preview Issue, published right before the greatest draft in Sens history, it sheds some light on just how hard these predictions are.
For example, everybody's number one that year was Alexis Lafreniere, but five years later, no one would rank him in that spot again in a re-draft. THN's 100 projections that year included six future Senators and one that didn't make the top 100 but was still drafted early in the second round.
Tim Stutzle prediction: 3rd overall (picked 3rd overall) Correct
The die isn't fully cast on the 2020 Draft class, but it's getting there, and it's always interesting to look back at how people felt about certain players. Some players proved everyone right, while others proved everyone wrong.
The Hockey News Archive May 11, 2020/vol. 73, issue 06
Prospect Rankings
Games were cancelled, but the show must go on. So we look ahead to a draft featuring elite-level talent and depth. Oh, and watch out for the Germans!
WHILE THE SEASON didn't end the way anyone predicted, scouts and GMs will still have to select their future – and by all accounts, it’s a great draft class.
Alexis Lafreniere went post-to-post as the No. 1-rated prospect, and the Rimouski Oceanic phenom only strengthened his grip on the top spot as the campaign went on. Quinton Byfield is a good bet to go No. 2 thanks to his incredible upside, but what happens next will be fascinating.
Tim Stutzle could become the highest-drafted German since Leon Draisaitl went third in 2014, but don’t count out Lucas Raymond or even Jamie Drysdale. No matter what happens, it’s going to be a celebratory draft for German hockey. Stutzle, J.J. Peterka and Lukas Reichel make up the nation’s best class ever.
In the following pages, you will find our ranking of the top 100 players in the 2020 draft class. The top 62 prospects get full reports, written by senior writers Ryan Kennedy and Ken Campbell, featuring quotes from NHL scouts, while we provide snapshot descriptions of the remaining hopefuls. From Alexis Lafreniere to Alex Laferriere, we’ve got you covered.
This article originally appeared on The Hockey News:
We’re in the thick of The Hockey News’ NHL summer splash series – our rankings of the off-seasons of each NHL team, moving in reverse from the 32nd-place Buffalo Sabres to the No. 1 spot. And today’s team is No. 14 in the series – the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Looking at every team’s lineup additions, departures, and hirings and firings where applicable, we’ve come up with a consensus on where teams are in the moves they’ve made this summer. Some teams have clearly improved, some teams have made a slight improvement or have been radio silent when it comes to trades and signings. And some teams have regressed.
The Penguins are a good example of a team that’s made some extensive changes – particularly, regarding their defense and goaltending – and we’ve judged Pittsburgh to be slightly better than they were at the end of another disappointing season. As we’ll explore below, they’re a team that’s gotten slightly better, but that doesn’t mean you should start planning to see the Pens in the playoffs next year. They changed things up with trades and signings, but we’re not sure they’re even going to be in the mix for post-season hockey.
Additions
Arturs Silvovs (G), Anthony Mantha, LW; Justin Brazeau, RW; Matt Dumba, D; Connor Clifton, D; Parker Wotherspoon, D; Alexander Alexeyev, D
The Breakdown: When you’re fortunate enough to employ superstar Sidney Crosby, star forward Evgeni Malkin, and defensemen Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson, you have fewer needs than many teams. Thus, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas went out and made seven additions to bolster his team, but we don’t expect all six of the above players to be needle-movers for Pittsburgh.
The one big question mark that could propel the Pens into the playoffs is new goalie and former Vancouver Canuck Silovs. The Penguins desperately need better goaltending than they had last year, and if Silovs can provide it, that will be a huge advantage for Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Mantha is a reclamation project who has hit the 20-goal mark just once since 2018-19. Brazeau is known for his physical play, but he’s not going to body-check the Penguins into the victory column. Dumba was a salary dump by the Dallas Stars, and Clifton and Wotherspoon were acquired to fill out the last defense pairing.
All of this is to say that, weighed against the players they parted ways with, the Bruins have indeed slightly improved. But there’s still a long road ahead for some of these players, and Pittsburgh’s defense corps in particular was the focus of Dubas & Co. as he worked his way through the off-season. In sum, we’d say this is a “nothing to write home about, but technically speaking, they did improve” team.
Departures
Alex Nedeljkovic (G), Matt Grzelcyk, (D), Conor Timmins, (D), P.O. Joseph (D), Matt Nieto (LW)
The Breakdown: In some ways, this category is a plus for the Penguins. They didn’t move heaven and earth to trade Karlsson – but that may still happen – and after getting rid of five fringe players, they didn’t take too big a hit. The most visible loss is Nedeljkovic, who had some stretches of good play last season, but he didn’t do it consistently.
So, the primary loss for Pittsburgh is Grzelcyk – a decent-enough blueliner who somehow still is without a contract as of early August – and after that, you’re talking about a regular healthy scratch in Timmins, and two players (Joseph and Nieto) who combined to produce six points last year. Six. These players may be strong positive influences in the dressing room, but if we’re talking purely about how they slot in on paper, you can see why the Penguins weren’t notably better, but they still had a better off-season than half of the league.
Indeed, the focus of the Pens should be about the future, and sometimes, doing that means you have to strip things down. Dubas hasn’t bought into that concept at this point, but if the Penguins stall and start to spiral, there will be a strong push to trade veterans Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. And it’s getting close to high time that Dubas makes more substantial moves than he’s done this off-season.
The Bottom Line
The Penguins have missed the Stanley Cup playoffs for the past three seasons, and they haven’t won a playoff round in seven years. And that’s with some of the top talent in the world on their team. That’s a stunning reality that should sober up Pens management and get them advocating a push to be out of the Mushy Middle of the league – not good enough for playoff action, and not bad enough to land a top prospect at the beginning of the draft.
So, when we have them relatively in the middle of the pack this summer in these ratings, don’t take it to mean we see the Penguins storming out and securing a playoff berth. They should be viewed with skepticism until they prove themselves worthy of fan and management confidence. And if things go sideways and they’re near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference standings, you better believe there will be a PR nightmare until Dubas shows he’s going ahead fully focused on the future and starts making blockbuster moves.
Otherwise, it all feels like the Penguins are running to stand still. They’ve got too many third-and-fourth-line talent and too many question marks on defense and in net. They were active this summer, but the bottom line is that we don’t see their additions/departures column as having moved them much at all in our summer splash rankings. Yes, they didn’t regress, but a slight progress isn’t much to write home about. And time will tell whether these moves were precursors to blockbuster deals during the year.
Tkachuk finished tied for the team lead in scoring in both the 2024 and 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He has 88 goals and 254 points in 211 regular season games and 69 points in 67 playoff games in three seasons with the Panthers.
Florida have made the Stanley Cup Finals all three years Tkachuk has been on the team.
He is the first Florida Panther to be on the cover since John Vanbiesbrouck in NHL 97. Olli Jokinen appeared on several editions of NHL 2005 is Europe.
Mets right-hander Frankie Montas had another rough outing on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, with manager Carlos Mendozanon-committal after the game as to whether or not Montas would make his next start.
Speaking on Monday afternoon, Mendoza explained that Montas will indeed pitch on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers, but his role is still to be determined, as the Mets could potentially opt to use an opener in front of the veteran.
“We’re having those discussions here. He is going to pitch against the Brewers,” Mendoza explained. “So, [Kodai] Senga is going to go Friday after the off day, but because we have an off day in between that series, we could get creative.
"So, maybe an opener in front of him, but as of right now, on Saturday, he’s going to play a part in that game. Depending on how we get through on Friday, we’ll see, but like I said, on Saturday he’s pitching.”
Mendoza spoke with Montas about that decision, saying that Montas will prepare as if he’s making the start, whether or not an opener is used.
“He’s willing to do whatever it takes,” Mendoza said.
After missing the bulk of the first half of the season due to a lat strain suffered in spring training, Montas has struggled since returning to the mound. In seven starts, the veteran has pitched to a 6.68 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP. He’s allowed 4+ earned runs in four of those starts, and is yet to go 6.0 innings in any outing.
With Montas’ issues front and center, there’s been plenty of chatter about whether the Mets should promote one of their top pitching prospects from Triple-A Syracuse, namely Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean.
Asked on Monday if he’s been watching those two any more closely of late, Mendoza said he’s always keeping an eye on the minor leaguers, though he did note that both players are seemingly ready, or at least very close to being ready, to pitch in the majors.
“I’ve been watching those guys for a long time,” said Mendoza. “Every time they pitch, I read the reports, I watch some of the outings, a couple innings, but nothing changes as far as my routine goes. … I know they’ve been pretty good down there, and that’s all they need to do. Continue to do what they’ve been doing.”
“They continue to put themselves in a position where, like, ‘Alright, we’re going to have that conversation.’ They’re knocking at the door. … We like where they’re at in terms of their development.”
Paul Blackburn Update
Elsewhere on the rotation front, the plan is for Paul Blackburn to make one more rehab outing for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday. After that, the Mets will have a decision to make on how to use the veteran right-hander.
Blackburn has been on the IL since early July with a right shoulder impingement. In his first three outings for Syracuse, Blackburn has allowed four runs on 14 hits with 14 strikeouts to four walks in 16.2 innings
When the basketball gods handed San Antonio the No. 2 pick and the chance to draft highly-touted point guard Dylan Harper, there were questions in other front offices if the Spurs might play hardball in negotiations with De'Aaron Fox and not give him the max that was expected after a mid-season trade for the former All-Star.
No, they paid him the max. The Spurs and Fox agreed to a four-year max contract that could be worth up to $229 million, his agent Rich Paul told ESPN's Shams Charania. (The actual total will likely be closer to $22.4 million, the $229 million figure is based on the salary cap going up 10% next year, while the NBA projects it will rise by 7%.) This is a straight four, with no options for the player or team, and kicks in for the 2026-27 season, keeping Fox under contract until the summer of 2030.
The Spurs traded for Fox at the deadline in a massive three-team deal (which included Zach LaVine to the Kings) after Fox's representatives reportedly told Sacramento management he would not sign an extension with the team. Fox had previously questioned if the Kings were committed to "competing at a high level." San Antonio was Fox's preferred landing spot, giving him the chance to pair up with Victor Wembanyama on a team building a contender.
However, Wembanyama and Fox only played five games together before the French center was out for the season due to blood clots in his shoulder. Fox averaged 19.7 points per game shooting 27.4% on 3-pointers — both numbers well below his career averages — in 17 games before ending his season in March to undergo finger surgery.
San Antonio is a patient organization and coach Mitch Johnson is expected to spend this season figuring out how Fox, Harper and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle fit together — and especially how they mesh with Victor Wembanyama. The expectation around the league has been that the Spurs will eventually have to move on from at least one of their guard trio, although this Fox contract ends right when Harper's second contract would kick in, so the timing may work out. Fox, especially if his numbers dip, will be challenging to trade on this new contract. Wembanyama can sign an extension after next season, and it would kick in for the 2027-28 season.
So far the trade from Sacramento to San Antonio has worked out as well as Fox wanted. Now he needs to earn that money on the court.
Florida Panthers superstar forward Matthew Tkachuk has been revealed as EA Sports’ NHL 26 cover athlete, becoming the first Panther to grace the cover since John Vanbiesbrouck on NHL 97.
Tkachuk is as popular a hockey player as you’ll find nowadays. The two-time Stanley Cup winner totals 258,000 Instagram followers and 71,900 followers on X, but that’s just the start of his popularity.
Tkachuk dealt with a major injury this season, forcing him to dress in just 52 games. He returned for the start of the post-season but was still nursing the injury. Despite the injury hampering his abilities, Tkachuk poured in eight goals and 23 points in 23 games. Unfortunately for the former sixth overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, the injury issues will carry into the 2025-26 season, as he’s expected to miss several months while rehabbing from corrective surgery after suffering an adductor injury and a hernia.
Tkachuk joins a list consisting of the Hughes brothers, Cale Makar, Trevor Zegras, Sarah Nurse, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Alex Ovechkin and former Panthers teammate Vladimir Tarasenko as recent players to appear on the cover.
Seattle’s Cal Raleigh — better known by the catchy nickname “Big Dumper” — has lived up to the moniker, dropping baseball into the outfield seats all over the big leagues this season.
Manager Dan Wilson has been in awe of his talents.
“That’s what you get from Cal,” Wilson said. “Night in, night out, blocking balls, calling the game, leading a pitching staff, throwing runners out — that’s what Cal does and he does it very well.”
Oh ... wait a second. Wilson obviously wasn’t taking about Raleigh’s prodigious power — he’s talking about how the 28-year-old handles the most demanding defensive position on the baseball field: Catcher.
Raleigh has smashed 42 homers this season, putting him on pace for 60, with a chance to catch Aaron Judge’s American League record of 62. That would be fun to watch under any circumstance. The fact that the All-Star and Home Run Derby champion is also responsible for guiding the Mariners’ pitching staff on most nights makes it even more impressive.
Seattle is currently in the thick of the American League playoff race with a 60-53 record, and the Mariners are relying on Raleigh’s bat and his brain to try and make the playoffs for just the third time since 2001.
There’s the mental side of the job — meetings, film study, calling pitches — but there’s also the wear and tear of the physical side. The 2024 Gold Glove winner is also squatting, handling the run game, taking painful foul tips off all parts of his body, putting his 6-foot-2, 235-pound frame through the ringer four or five nights a week.
All while hitting those homers.
Catching is demanding and can wear on power hitters
The fact that it took Raleigh a few years in the big leagues to emerge as a true superstar — this is his fourth full season with the Mariners — isn’t surprising. The learning curve for young catchers can be severe and the defensive part of the job takes precedence. There’s a long list of backstops who couldn’t hit a lick yet carved out long MLB careers.
Raleigh is a man of many talents and his power was always evident. He hit 27 homers in 2022, 30 in 2023 and 34 last season. Now he’s on pace for 50 long balls and maybe more. There are only five other players in big league history who have hit at least 40 homers while primarily playing catcher: Salvador Perez, Johnny Bench (twice), Roy Campanella, Todd Hundley and Mike Piazza (twice). Bench, Campanella and Piazza are Hall of Famers.
It’s evidence of a player at the top of his game — and one who has come through plenty of experience.
“I don’t think I’m trying any harder or doing any more than I have in the past,” Raleigh said. “Maybe a little more focused on the right things, and not constantly trying to tweak or change something that I have been in the past. So, I think that’s been the biggest part to the success, and just trying to keep that consistent and steady.”
Wilson was more direct, putting into perspective what Raleigh has accomplished through the first four months of the season.
“It’s pretty staggering,” Wilson said.
Raleigh’s big numbers are part of an offensive surge for MLB catchers: Will Smith, Hunter Goodman, Logan O’Hoppe, Shea Langeliers, Alejandro Kirk, Salvador Perez and William Contreras are among roughly a dozen at the position who are more than holding their own at the plate.
Veteran catcher Carson Kelly is on pace to have his best offensive season in the big leagues at 31, batting .272 with 13 homers and 36 RBIs for the Chicago Cubs. He’s been in the big leagues for 10 years and said the balance between offense and defense is tough for young players.
“It’s almost like you’re drinking from a firehose with how much information you have,” Kelly said. “And I think, as you see catchers, as the years go on, you get smarter.
“You get smarter in your routines. and you’re able to focus on the little details,” he continued. “When you get called up as a young guy, there’s so much going on. And as the years go by and as the days go by, you get more comfortable. ‘OK, I know this, I know that, how do I really funnel this down into a couple points?’
“I think that’s, you know, when you see catchers kind of take off.”
Some adjustments are helping catchers stay fresh
One major factor for the increased offensive production for catchers could be the one-knee down defensive stance that’s been adopted by nearly every MLB catcher over the past five years.
The argument for the stance is its helpful for defensive reasons, including framing pitches on the corners.
But there’s also the added benefit that it’s a little easier on the knees than squatting a couple hundred times per game.
“A hundred percent,” said Goodman, the Rockies primary catcher who is hitting .279 with 20 homers. “You think about back in the day when everybody was squatting … being in a squat for that long can be can be hard on your legs. Getting on a knee gives your legs a little bit of rest for sure.”
Statistical trends suggest he has a point. Catchers have accounted for 12.2% of all MLB homers this season, making a slow climb from 10% in 2018.
Raleigh’s been the best of the bunch and fans — along with his catching peers — are noticing.
“It just seems like on both sides of the ball, when he’s behind the plate he’s really focused on his pitchers and calling a good game and all the things that a catching position entails, and then when he comes up to the plate, he can do damage,” Kelly said.
Hockey Betting Is Growing Rapidly - Nov. 2 1990 - Vol. 44, Issue 07 - Stan Fischler
Though the NHL may officially object, hockey betting continues to grow. Evidence is abundant in the continent’s betting capital, Las Vegas, where casinos now regularly post NHL odds. And the second annual, 250-page book, Betting Hockey 90-91, has been published by the city’s foremost ice oddsmaker, Bobby Bryde. Bryde lists the Flames as 3-1 favorites to win the Stanley Cup, followed by Boston and Edmonton at 5-1. Quebec is the longshot at 100-1. Kirk Brooks, director of Vegas’ Imperial Palace sports book, also lists the Flames at 3-1 and Edmonton at 5-1. But Brooks places Boston and Buffalo in a tie for the next spot at 7-1 and Quebec at 200-1…Flyers’ leader Rick Tocchet is one of many NHLers who are concerned about a walkout next season. “We don’t want a strike,” says Tocchet. “Nobody wants a strike but we have to use the word ‘prepare.’
Right now we have things we’re looking at but this much is certain; it’s going to be an interesting summer for (NHLPA director) Bob Goodenow.”…The Flyers are understandably worried about Ron Hextall suffering yet another groin injury and the effect it may have on his future. “I felt good coming into camp this year,” the goalie insists. “I worked out all summer with Pat Croce (Flyers’ physical therapist) and didn’t even consider injuries-.”…Washington’s substantial early game attendance at home indicates that the blemish of last spring’s ‘sexpose’ has been effectively neutralized. Insiders say a summer-long advertising campaign by marketing head Lew Strudler saved the club from an image disaster.
RISKY BUSINESS
The latest issue of Financial World magazine describes the NHL’s 1990s expansion plans as “a risky strategy that could backfire on president John Ziegler.” FW asserts that what makes “the NHL’s scheme truly agamble”, is the $50 million franchise price. “How do you justify investing $50 million, when each club’s media revenues are so small,” asks Mike Megna of Minneapolis-based American Appraisals. “It’s unrealistic. Hockey isn’t like other sports that have a network TV contract. It is primarily a local market revenue generator.
Ranger fans will be shocked on Nov. 7 when arch-foe Denis Potvin strides to center ice before the Sabres game for a Rangers’ presentation. The hook is that Potvin has become frontman for the Alka-Seltzer plus-minus award (formerly the Emery Edge) and gives the prizes in arenas across the league. Crowd control that night might be a problem, but Madison Square Garden’ has embarked on a program to curb the negative behavior of rowdy fans. During the summer, MSG enforced its policy by cancelling the subscriptions of 25 Ranger season ticket-holders. “We’re drawing the line in the use of language that is no longer acceptable,” says MSG’s communications director Bobby Goldwater. But based on early games this season, there has been no significant change for the better.
The feeling among many Penguins is that Mario Lemieux will not be available until the New Year, at the earliest. The sombre air in the Penguins’ organization is echoed by teammates who say, all we can do now is hope and pray. Speculation is Pittsburgh management is looking to the future without Mario in its plans…One of the better comeback stories belongs to Brennan Maley, who signed a one-year contract with Tom McVie’s AHL club (Utica) after being out of competitive hockey for four years.
Kid brother of New Jersey’s David Maley, Brennan spent four years at Omaha’s Creighton University where he pitched for the varsity baseball team and tied a record for most appearances with 24. “I feel like I have a new lease on life,” says Brennan. “I know I’m a longshot but I always wondered if I could play hockey at this level…Scouting for the Edmonton Oilers, Hall of Fame defenseman Harry Howell says the difference between contemporary back-liners and his ilk is that “today’s defensemen feel they have to be offensive. In my day it was defense first. Goals were a bonus. But that all changed with the advent of Bobby Orr of the Bruins.” So, who are 1990-91’s best defensive defensemen in Howell’s mind? “Kevin Lowe, Rod Langway, Mike Ramsey, Brad Marsh and Scott Stevens. Ramsey is the best of them all. Marsh isn’t pretty but he’s very effective and knows how to get in the way.”
ON THE MOVE?
North Stars’ defenseman Peter Taglianetti is one Minnesotan who’s not anxious to move to San Jose next season. “I thought I was secure in Winnipeg,” says Taglianetti. “But I moved to Bloomington and got settled. Maybe the weather is nicer in California but I wonder about the hockey atmosphere. Most of the players on the North Stars feel the club was mismanaged before and they’re wondering if it’s going to happen again.”
Teammate Dave Gagner says he’s not concerned about moving to California. “What’s more on our mind is the low turnout of fans in Minnesota,” says Gagner. “It’s very disappointing but I don’t know one guy on the team who doesn’t like being in the Twin Cities. When I played for the Rangers, everyone left New York for the summer. In Minnesota, the players all stay.”
…Mats Sundin has been winning raves since becoming a Nordique, but the best statement comes from Whalers’ defenseman Ulf Samuelsson who says, “He reminds me a lot of Lemieux.”
The Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani has been hitting .230 since resuming pitching duties this season, a stretch of 40 games. (Chris O'Meara / Associated Press)
The Dodgers are leading the majors in on-base-plus-slugging percentage as an offense this year. They are second in the National League in scoring, and third in team batting average.
They have the league’s top players in hitting (Will Smith batting .324 and Freddie Freeman batting .306) and OPS (Shohei Ohtani at .982 and Smith at .963).
They figure to have several players who will get MVP votes at the end of the season, including the odds-on favorite for the award in Ohtani.
And yet, as the club enters the stretch run of the season, their lineup might be the biggest question mark in their bid to defend last year’s World Series championship. Since the start of July, they have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors, have the second-lowest team batting average and the fourth-lowest OPS.
They stayed relatively quiet at the trade deadline, hopeful a number of struggling superstars would get things going over the campaign’s final two months. But to this point, only Freeman (who endured a two-month slump before heating up again on their recent nine-game trip) has shown tangible signs of a late-season revival.
“If you look at it from the offensive side, as far as our guys, they’ll be the first to tell you they’ve got to perform better and more consistently,” manager Dave Roberts said this past weekend, after utility outfielder Alex Call became the team’s only deadline addition to the lineup. “That’s something that we’re all counting on … Now it’s up to all of us to go out there and do our jobs.”
While that’s true of most hitters in the lineup, all the way down to Andy Pages and (even before his most recent ankle injury flare-up) Tommy Edman, there are three star-level players in particular the Dodgers have been waiting to round back into form.
Here’s a look at the problems plaguing each of them:
Mookie Betts
First 15 games: .304 average, .554 slugging percentage, .954 OPS
Last 87 games: .222 average, .327 slugging percentage, .616 OPS
When asked on Sunday for the umpteenth time this season if he knew what was wrong with Mookie Betts' swing, Roberts failed to come up with an answer.
"Honestly, no,” Roberts said. “I know that he and the hitting coaches have been working diligently, consistently, intentionally. I think that the first thing, the easiest thing, to say is it's a mechanical thing. So I guess kind of that's where he's at. But also, I do believe that there's a mental part of it, too, which is sort of beating him down a little bit.”
When Betts was presented with the same question later Sunday afternoon, after running a season-long hitless streak to 17 at-bats and watching his batting average dip to .233, he was left searching for divine intervention.
“I’ve done everything I can possibly do,” he said. “It’s up to God at this point.”
Betts’ struggles are not for a lack of effort. He spends hours in the batting cage before (and sometimes after) almost every game. He has tried mechanical tweaks and mental cues and fundamental drills that in the past would get him back on track.
His approach has largely remained sound, as he ranks in the top 20% of big-leaguers in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeouts percentage, per Baseball Savant’s Statcast data.
And while his bat speed is in the 11th percentile of MLB hitters (and down almost two mph from his 39-homer season in 2023), it’s also about the same as he had last year, when he was still a .289 hitter with 19 home runs (in just 116 games) and a .863 OPS (which only trailed Shohei Ohtani for the best on the team).
“I really don’t know what else to do,” he said. “I don’t have any answers.”
Perhaps the most confounding metric: Betts is in the 99th percentile in “squared-up” rate, a metric that effectively determines when a ball is hit off the sweet spot of the bat.
But, even when Betts does make solid contact, he simply isn’t generating as much power as he usually does — ranking among the bottom third of big-league hitters in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage; and watching fly balls that used to leave the yard die at the warning track, if they even make it that far.
While he has been a victim of some bad luck (his expected .252 batting average is almost 20 points higher than his actual mark), he has had no choice but to “go back to the drawing board” time and time again this year — gradually grating on his confidence as answers continually fail to appear.
“I don’t know anybody in the world that would have confidence in the stretch that’s going on [for me],” he said. “It sucks when you don’t get stuff done.”
Betts can be a streaky hitter. And the Dodgers’ hope is that, at some point over these final two months, he’ll find something that unlocks more pop in his bat, and go on the kind of heater that can make him an effective producer at the top of the lineup again.
Until that happens, however, questions will persist. About whether his shortstop play is to blame for his offensive decline (a theory multiple rival evaluators have increasingly pointed to of late as a reason for his struggles). About whether age is simply catching up to the soon-to-be 33-year-old veteran. And about whether he will ever be the same hitter he was once, amid a season-long slump almost no one saw coming.
Shohei Ohtani
First 70 games (before resuming pitching): .297 average, 1.034 OPS, 24% strikeout rate
Last 40 games (since resuming pitching): .230 average, .886 OPS, 31% strikeout rate
The easy demarcation line for Ohtani this year has been before and after he returned to pitching in mid-June, with offensive production dropping even as his stuff has ticked up on the mound.
Ohtani has still been a relatively productive hitter since then, continuing to hit home runs at a league-leading pace (he is tied with Kyle Schwarber for the NL lead with 38 on the year).
But he has become a much easier out the last couple months, as well, epitomized first and foremost by his climbing strikeout rate.
An over-aggressive approach would figure to be the easy explanation here. And there have been times, Roberts noted, the slugger appears to get into a “swing mode” that prevents him from laying off bad pitches.
But on the whole this season, Ohtani is actually swinging less often than he did last year, chasing pitches at an almost identical rate and continuing to draw more walks than almost anyone in the majors (his 71 free passes are seventh-most this season).
Ohtani’s problem has been an increase in swing-and-miss, with the reigning MVP coming up empty on more than one-third of his hacks.
It might simply be a byproduct of the added physical workload he has taken on since resuming two-way duties. But he has insisted such problems remain fixable, citing a lack of balance and consistency in his swing mechanics.
Like Betts, Ohtani can also be prone to more extreme highs and lows over the course of a year. Last season, for example, he hit just .235 with an .886 OPS in August, before turning around in September and batting .393 with a 1.225 OPS.
The Dodgers could use another late-season tear like that again this term. Whether he can do it while also ramping up as a pitcher looms as one of the biggest questions facing the Dodgers down the stretch this year.
Teoscar Hernández
First 33 games (pre-groin strain): .315 average, nine home runs, .933 OPS, 18% strikeout rate
Last 57 games (post-groin strain): .211 average, seven home runs, .619 OPS, 28% strikeout rate
Hernández's midseason drop-off is perhaps the easiest to explain of any recently scuffling Dodgers hitter.
Before suffering a groin/adductor strain in early May, he was on an All-Star (and potentially even MVP-caliber) pace after re-signing with the Dodgers in the offseason.
Since then, however, the 32-year-old simply hasn’t looked the same — both at the plate, where he hasn’t been able to drive the ball as he usually does, and in the field, where his range has been clearly limited.
To that end, a foul ball he took off his foot last month hasn’t helped matters either.
There have been some recent signs that Hernández is getting healthy again. His slugging percentage has started to tick back up since getting a week off for the All-Star break. He has had more hard contact, especially to center and the opposite field.
“At the beginning [after my injury] it was a little hard,” Hernández said after hitting home runs in consecutive games at Fenway Park last week. “First I got my groin, then I got the foul off my foot. Couldn’t put a lot of weight [on it] for like two weeks. Thank God there was the break in there. I got those four days off, going through that and getting some treatment, getting some rest. And finally feel like myself again.”
But, it still hasn’t resulted in a total reversal of fortunes, with Hernández finishing the road trip going just five-for-25 with nine strikeouts and only one extra-base hit.
Last year, Hernández’s ability to be a run-producer behind the Dodgers’ star trio of hitters was crucial to both their regular-season and postseason offensive success. Lately, though, he has been more strikeout-prone and less opportunistic at the plate, contributing to a string of frustrating recent defeats marked by squandered chances in leverage opportunities.
“He's bearing down, and he's not trying to give at-bats away,” Roberts said. “He's grinding.”
Much like the Dodgers’ other scuffling stars, the team will need him to fully snap out of it, and live up once again to the expectations the club had for him and the lineup at large.
The Pirates scored two runs off new closer Randy Rodriguez, getting a 5-4 walk-off win. The tying run came on an RBI single by former Giants top prospect Joey Bart, and the winning run came a batter later on a slow roller to first. Jack Suwinski, the runner at first, slid home safely just ahead of the throw.
Rodriguez’s rough outing — and the poor night for the bullpen overall — cost Justin Verlander his 264th win. Verlander looked like a 35-year-old Verlander, but the Giants gave up four runs after he departed.
Coming off a series win in New York, the Giants initially found a soft landing in Pittsburgh. They were up against right-hander Johan Oviedo, who was making his season debut after missing two years with injuries, including Tommy John surgery.
Oviedo lasted just one inning, and the Giants left him off the hook. He needed 43 pitches in the first and walked three, but the lineup pushed just two runs across. That was it until the sixth, when Jung Hoo Lee made it a 4-1 game with a two-run triple, but the lead wouldn’t last.
The Pirates had Verlander on the ropes in the fourth, with an error putting runners on second and third with one out. A groundout erased the runner on third, and J.P. Martinez came out for a meeting to let Verlander catch his breath. He responded with his most impressive sequence of the season.
Old friend Joey Bart fell behind in the count and then took a 98.3 mph fastball. On 2-2, Verlander went back to the heater, freezing Bart with a perfect 97.8 mph fastball on the outside corner.
The pitches were the two fastest of the season for Verlander, and the 98.3 mph bolt was his first at 98-plus since Aug. 16, 2022. Not too bad for a 42-year-old.
Climbing The Charts
With his five innings, Verlander reached 3,510 for his big league career. That moved him past a Giants legend on the all-time leaderboard.
Verlander passed Juan Marichal (3,507) and moved into 71st in MLB history. Next up is Adonis Terry, who last pitched in 1897 and is four innings ahead of Verlander. (Terry once pitched 476 innings in a season; it truly was an entirely different era.)
Verlander only has thrown 94 1/3 innings this year, but in his prime he was as durable as anyone in the game. He reached 200 innings 12 times and led the majors in innings four times.
A New Look
Without Tyler Rogers (Mets) and Camilo Doval (New York Yankees), the Giants have to experiment in the late innings. That led to some new faces as they were trying to hold on for Verlander on Monday night.
Rookie Carson Seymour had a quick sixth, striking out a pair, but manager Bob Melvin sent him out for the seventh and paid for it. Seymour gave up a two-run blast to Suwinski, giving him five homers allowed in 11 innings this year.
Spencer Bivens got the eighth, which belonged to Rogers for four months.
Bivens retired a pair and gave up a single to Nick Gonzales. When Rodriguez entered for a four-out save attempt, Gonzales was thrown out trying to steal second on Patrick Bailey.
With the Yankees in need of adding some pitching depth, the club has signed right-hander Kenta Maeda to a minor league contract.
Maeda, 37, was designated for assignment and later released by the Detroit Tigers in early May and had been pitching in the Chicago Cubs organization before being released on Saturday.
In seven games this season with the Tigers, the right-hander pitched to a 7.88 ERA over 8.0 innings.
Maeda has had mixed success during his major league career, finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2016 and then finishing as the AL runner-up for Cy Young in the shortened 2020 season, when he pitched to a 2.70 ERA.
If Maeda were to sign and make the big-league roster, it’s unclear if the Yankees would use him as a starter or a reliever. He hasn’t started a game this season, but does have 172 career big-league starts.
The Yankees saw Luis Gil make his season debut on Sunday in Miami, but the right-hander looked rusty in his first start following a lat injury. The Yankees also recently released Marcus Stroman, leaving them with a current five-man rotation of Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, Will Warren, Cam Schlittler, and Gil.
