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It has been two profitable weeks as I continue to try to dig myself out of an early-season home-run hole.

I've hit a dinger in five of my last six articles, and today's slate is setting up well for four-baggers and MLB player props.

The Mariners are projected to put up some crooked numbers vs. Mitch Keller and the Pirates, while nobody is swinging a better bat than Pete Crow-Armstrong, and that price vs. Kodai Senga is on the right side of expected value. 

Finally, if a Phillie bat is not on your HR card vs. Zack Littell, are you really betting on homers?

These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, June 23. 

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Josh Naylor (+660)

Give a bump to the left-handed bats of the Mariners today. Generous winds are blowing out to right field at PNC Park, and the pitching matchup is working in their favor as well. Josh Naylor at +660 is the target.

Mitch Keller has allowed 4+ runs in all but one of his last seven starts, posting a 7.64 ERA over that stretch. At home, he's been even worse, allowing 18 runs in 13+ innings across his last seven starts.

His fly-ball rate is lower than his career average, and his HR/FB rate is starting to normalize after some early-season months of keeping it below 10%. His SIERA and xFIP are both at five-year highs, suggesting these bad times are here to stay. 

Naylor has seen Keller eight times in his career, taking him deep once while hitting .375. I love the Mariners team total Over 4.5 today, and Naylor is one of the better +EV home run props on the board with a fair price closer to +520.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+382)

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks at .935, and his .500 ISO trails only Shohei Ohtani.

This is a great price in a game that could feature multiple home runs given the pitching matchup.

Kodai Senga owns the 13th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters this season, and only three qualified starters have a worse ground-ball rate. He's allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts, and this will be just his second outing after missing three weeks with a spine/arm injury.

Senga may be the biggest pitching target on the slate today, and getting a red-hot hitter at +300 or better in a plus-plus home run matchup is an easy way to make the HR card.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Marquee Sports Network

Home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+660)

I need a left-handed bat against Zack Littell, who continues to be a gift to home run hitters.

Brandon Marsh went deep yesterday and gets another favorable matchup against Littell, who owns the 19th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters and pairs it with a poor 31% groundball rate. Only three other starters have a worse Ideal Attack Angle percentage.

Hitters square Littell up consistently, and he's coming off a start where he allowed four home runs. The left-handed bats won't be hitting straight into the wind like the righties today with the wind blowing in from left field.

Littell is also coming off a 99-pitch outing — his second-highest pitch count of the season and well above his usual workload, which sits around 80 pitches.

I love the Phillies to pile on runs today, and Marsh at +550 or better is making the HR card.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, Nationals.TV

Today’s HR parlay

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You simply cannot deny that the Phillies have improved under Don Mattingly’s watch. Since Mattingly took over as interim manager after the firing of Rob Thomson on April 28th, the Phillies have gone 33-17 and resurrected their chances at defending their NL East division crown. That record is the best in MLB over that span entering Monday. Whether you thought this run was coming regardless of the manager or didn’t, Mattingly has to get credit for overseeing this dramatic turnaround.

That doesn’t mean that there haven’t been some interesting decisions from Mattingly along the way though. Most notably, he is more willing to push his starting pitchers further in the regular season than Rob Thomson was. Two examples of such came over the last week with Jesús Luzardo and Zack Wheeler. In Luzardo’s last start on June 16th, he threw 106 pitches in seven innings. It was the first time this season that Luzardo went over 100 pitches and the third highest pitch count he’s had in a start in his career. Mattingly elected to push Luzardo into the seventh inning despite the Phillies having an 8-0 lead and the lefty sitting at 89 pitches before the inning. Luzardo managed to get through the inning, but he did allow a double and a home run to the first two batters he faced.

The other example is more recent with Zack Wheeler on Sunday. Wheeler appeared to be tiring in the sixth when he allowed three walks to load the bases with one out in a 6-1 game. Jonathan Bowlan was warmed up and ready in the bullpen as Mattingly approached the mound, but the manager elected to leave Wheeler in for one more hitter despite the righty being at 101 pitches and the situation being somewhat precarious. Wheeler got A.J. Ewing to ground into a force out, but the Phillies weren’t able to turn a double play and a run scored. Mattingly then decided to remove Wheeler from the game after 104 pitches, tying his season high and only the second time he has gone over 100 pitches since his return from thoracic outlet surgery. Bowlan meanwhile was able to strike out Marcus Semien on four pitches to end the inning.

It’s clear that Mattingly has faith in his starters, and he has every reason to have that belief, as the Phillies rotation has the third best ERA (3.25) and fourth best WHIP (1.14) in baseball since he took over as manager. But it’s also reasonable to question the high pitch counts at this point in the season, especially in this case with two pitchers with injury histories like Luzardo and Wheeler. One unquestionable strength for Thomson during his time as manager was his ability to deliver the team, and especially his rotation, mostly healthy to the postseason. The jury is obviously still out for if Mattingly can do the same.

So, what do you think of Don Mattingly’s handling of pitchers? Do you like his tendency for longer leashes?

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that the Texas Rangers were buoyed by the Tartan Army for the second time in a couple of weeks as Scottish soccer fans took in Texas’ 4-3 win from last evening.

Kennedi Landry writes that the World Cup visitors were treated to a unique and dominant and uniquely dominant appearance from Kumar Rocker in the victory.

Grant writes that the Rangers are dealing with a lack of pitching depth during one of their more grueling stretches, exacerbated by Jack Leiter hitting the IL.

MLB dot com’s Brian Murphy and Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru check out the latest All-Star vote update where Ezequiel Duran remains second in the AL second baseman vote.

Grant has the daily Corey Seager concussion recovery update where, like the rest of us, Seager remains day-to-day.

And, at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski looks into the changes that MLB owners proposed for the draft and how much the changes would cost players (Spoilers: a lot).

Have a nice day!

After tonight’s game with the Angels, the Orioles will officially reach the 81-game mark of their 2026 campaign. Heading into Game 81, it’s safe to say that the first half of the O’s season has largely been disappointing. Seen by most as a strong wild card contender heading into the season, Baltimore currently sits below .500 and is sitting on the outside looking in for the American League wild card spots.

As we’ve seen countless times from Birdland over the last two years, there is again a growing chorus calling for Mike Elias to lose his job due to the Orioles’ underperformance. This renewed consternation for Elias and the front office comes after their most aggressive offseason in the 7+ years since Elias’ hiring — an offseason that saw Elias & Co. make their first major free-agent commitment with Pete Alonso.

It’s undoubtedly true that this Orioles team has failed to coalesce and become the contender many — including Baltimore’s front office —thought they’d be. After all, this team is only 4 games ahead of the pace of last year’s last-place team.

And yet, does that actually mean that the front office’s attempts to improve this team were all failures? As we reach the halfway point of the 2026 season, let’s grade the nine offseason moves that were supposed to transform this team.

The move: Signing OF Leody Taveras to a 1-year/$2M deal

The grade: C+

Taveras was signed to be outfield depth in CF the same way the O’s front office took chances on Ramón Laureano and Dylan Carlson last season. Through the first 30 games of his Oriole career, he looked like a Laureano-esque signing, hitting .277 with a .821 OPS while taking over the starting CF job from Colton Cowser.

Since the beginning of May, however, we’ve seen a noticeable drop-off from the former longtime Texas Ranger. In his last 126 ABs, Taveras is only hitting .238 with a .620 OPS while striking out 31% of the time.

This move still gets a passing grade as Taveras was a plus contributor throughout the first month-plus of the season and has allowed the Orioles to ride out an injury to Dylan Beavers and cold stretches from Cowser and Tyler O’Neill without having to resort to playing Triple-A talent in the Baltimore outfield.

The move: Trading RHP Grayson Rodriguez for OF Taylor Ward

The grade: B

Like Taveras, Ward started off the season incredibly hot and has cooled off as of late. Ward finished the first month of the season with a .304 average and an MLB-leading .438 on-base percentage and a . For an offense that was often struggling to find its rhythm, Ward was a consistent and elite producer at the top of the lineup.

Across May and June, his average has dipped to .223 and his OPS is down to .660, though he’s still maintained a strong .363 OBP amidst his struggles. We’ve yet to see anywhere close to the power output that Ward showed last year with the Angels, as he’s on pace for 40-45 extra-base hits after producing 69 for the Halos last season.

And yet, his on-base ability at the top of the lineup has been extremely valuable for Baltimore, and the front office will be faced with the tough decision of potentially trading his expiring contract at the deadline if the team’s play doesn’t improve. Given that the cost of acquiring Ward was only the perpetually injured G-Rod, this move has so far earned a solid, if not outstanding, grade.

The move: Signing 1B Pete Alonso to a 5-year/$155mdeal

The grade: A-

The Alonso signing was the biggest move the Orioles made this past offseason and his first three months in black and orange have been exactly what the O’s paid for. The five-time All-Star leads the Orioles in hits (74) and home runs (18), while his 52 RBIs are not only best on the team but good enough for fifth in the American League. The Polar Bear is also playing the best defense of his career in Baltimore. Alonso was paid to be the best player on this Orioles’ offense, and through the first half of the season, he’s been just that.

The only reason this signing doesn’t earn a higher grade is that Alonso started the season off cold. Through the first month of the season, the star 1B was slashing .198/.306/.362 with only four homers. Since then, he’s been blazing hot, slashing .282/.357/.547 with 14 long balls in his last 181 ABs. If not for that slow start, the Polar Bear is likely challenging Yordan Alvarez and Nick Kurtz for the status of best hitter in the AL.

The move: Trading RHP Kade Strowd and prospects for INF Blaze Alexander

The grade: B+

Our Tyler Young went into great detail yesterday about how Alexander has significantly outperformed the expectations placed on him when he was acquired to be a super utility player. On analytics alone, he might be the best hitter on this year’s team. His grade doesn’t surpass Alonso’s because his overall offensive impact has been much smaller. But it was still undoubtedly a strong move by the front office to acquire the 27-year-old from Arizona.

The moves: Trading for RHP Shane Baz, signing RHP Chris Bassitt and re-signing RHP Zach Eflin

The grade: C–

Elias & Co. made three moves to supplement the existing rotation options of Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Brandon Young and Cade Povich. The Baz trade (and subsequent extension) has been the most impactful acquisition. While his season ERA of 4.04 doesn’t jump off the page, he leads the Orioles with 89 IP and has put up a 2.62 ERA with a .223 BAA over his last seven starts. The former Ray is clearly a foundational piece that the O’s can build their rotation with going forward.

The other two veterans are what sink this grade. Perhaps including Efflin in this calculation is unfair because he only pitched 3.2 strong innings before blowing out his elbow and being lost for the season. Bassitt hasn’t been much better, posting a 5.27 ERA and 0.0 bWAR in 56.1 IP before landing on the IL with back discomfort two weeks ago.

Getting essentially zero positive impact from the $26.5M they invested in Eflin and Bassitt is far from ideal and may be enough to justify a lower grade. But the biggest swing was Baz, and that move looks better and better with each start, earning the front office a grade just above failing.

The moves: Re-acquiring RHP Andrew Kittredge and signing RHP Ryan Helsley to a 2-year/$28M deal

The grade: D-

The Orioles had a bad bullpen in 2025, with their relief corps ranking 25th in ERA at 4.57. The O’s went into this most recent offseason not only trying to patch the hole in their patchwork ‘pen, but also to find a new closer after another injury to Félix Bautista. The front office responded by reacquiring 36-year-old Andrew Kittredge and bringing in former All-Star closer Ryan Helsley.

Through the first half of the season, both have been plain bad. Kittredge is currently sporting a 6.11 and has more hits allowed (21) than strikeouts (16). Helsley is only slightly better with his 5.11 ERA in 12.1 IP, having missed most of the season due to right elbow inflammation.

The O’s currently sit 21st in bullpen ERA this season with most of that improvement coming via the strong seasons by Rico Garcia and Yennier Cano. And while the relative weakness of the bullpen isn’t this team’s biggest problem, it is certainly the place the front office failed to strengthen the most.

This isn’t a “how do you feel about Dylan Dodd” post. It’s more about the Braves. Two buckets of facts, and then I’ll add a third.

Bucket the first: in 2025, Dodd had an 85/94/83 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). That’s not a dominant reliever line, but it is a pretty good one. In 2026 so far, Dodd has an 46/96/83 line. That’s almost identical but for the small-sample ERA deficit. He’s got some HR/FB issues, but they’re not huge in his sample of under 55 innings over the last two seasons.

Bucket the second: in 2025, 85 percent of batters Dodd faced came in low leverage, and less than four percent came in high leverage. Remember that medium leverage is average; low and high leverage are uncommon. Also remember that in 2025, the Braves weren’t really playing for anything for a pretty long part of the season. In 2026, it’s 78 percent low leverage PAs, and one percent (one single batter) in high leverage.

That’s a pretty extreme split considering his performance. It’s perhaps even more stark if you look at actual games. In 2025, Dodd entered the game in high leverage twice, medium leverage three times, and low leverage 23 times. In 2026 so far, Dodd has entered the game in high leverage once, medium leverage twice, and low leverage ten times. It’s not quite pre-2026 Aaron Bummer-esque given Dodd’s homer issues, but it’s similar.

Okay, here’s the third bucket. In 2025, Dodd had six meltdowns to two shutdowns, and a highly negative WPA. To be very clear, WPA isn’t a measure of pitcher quality or pitching performance, and neither are shutdowns or meltdowns. Both are a descriptor of what happens to the team while the pitcher is on the mound, which is very different. But, still, having five 2025 outings that didn’t start in low leverage and six meltdowns is, uh… hmm. And in 2026, Dodd has two shutdowns and two meltdowns, and three non-low-leverage-starting appearances, so… yeah.

Hence, my question. What do you think the Braves think of Dylan Dodd? Is he doomed to low leverage the way Aaron Bummer found himself quickly? Does he have a chance of working out of it? If so, what will it take — beyond the mercy of things working out for him in the WPA department? Do you think there’s a HR/FB reaction here in some direction, too?

Rangers 4, Marlins 3

• That was a productive way to start a lengthy road trip.
• After Kumar Rocker had the best outing of his career roughly a monthly ago in Colorado, throwing 7.2 shutout innings while striking out seven after coming in behind an opener, I confidently predicted that the Rangers would do that again his next time out.
• The Rangers did not, in fact, do that again his next time out. Rocker was generally fine his next four starts, then got knocked around last week against the Twins, allowing seven runs, including two in the first.
• With a 9.69 ERA in the first inning of games coming into his start against Miami, compared to a 2.89 ERA in every other inning, Skip Schumaker went back to the opener well, having Tyler Alexander pitch the first inning, with Rocker following him.
• It is safe to say that it worked out well.
• After an uneventful 1-2-3 first from Alexander, Kumar Rocker pitched innings two through six, and did so in impressive fashion.
• Rocker faced 19 batters. He threw first pitch strikes to 16 of the 19. He struck out 9 of the 19. He allowed no walks, and gave up just two hard hit balls.
• Rocker’s slider has long been his money pitch, and Rocker had it working in spades Monday against the Marlins. He threw 39 sliders, resulting in 23 swings and 3 called strikes. 17 of the 23 swings against the slider resulted in whiffs, a remarkable 74% swing-and-miss percentage on the pitch.
• That’s the most whiffs off a slider that a major league pitcher has generated this season — Dylan Cease and Tatsuya Imai are next, at 15.
• Rocker went most slider/cutter, using his sinker and fastball just 18 times combined, and not throwing the changeup at all. The two pitch mix was working for him.
• The Marlins did get two runs off of Rocker. One came on a single-advance on ground out-wild pitch-sac fly sequence. The other came when Otto Lopez doubled with one out in the sixth, then came around to score on an Xavier Edwards triple. Edwards almost had an inside-the-park homer when Alejandro Osuna had misadventures fielding the ball in left field, but was thrown out at home.
• Overall, it was an outstanding outing for Rocker. Okay, yes, two runs in five innings isn’t outstanding, but if he pitches like he did in this game every time out, the Rangers will be in great shape.
• The Rangers didn’t take the lead for good until after Rocker left the game, so he didn’t get the W, though W’s for pitchers are outdated and not that meaningful. Robby Ahlstrom, who had an 8 pitch, 1-2-3 seventh, did get the W. Its his second career win, with the first coming retroactively, also in relief of Rocker, in the game where Rocker was pulled with two outs in the fifth and the official scorer originally awarded the win to Latz. That was originally changed to a win for Ahlstrom and a save for Latz.
• Speaking of Latz, he once again was asked to get a save of more than three outs, coming in with a two run lead with two outs in the eighth in relief of Jakob Junis. Latz allowed a double, allowing a run to score and putting the tying and go-ahead runs at second and third.
• I was nervous. I’ll admit it. Its okay. You can admit you were nervous, too.
• But an intentional walk was followed by a groundout, Latz retired the side in the ninth, and there was joy in Miami.
• Just, you know, not for the Miami fans.
• It was another game where you feel like the Rangers should have scored more runs than they did. A bunch of baserunners, a homer and a couple of doubles…there should have been more than four runs to cross the plate, right?
• The homer was by Ezequiel Duran, who came into the game in a 3 for 30 skid. He needed that.
• Brandon Nimmo had three hits and a walk, and we like that.
• Alejandro Osuna was thrown out at home trying to score in the fourth on a two out Elias Diaz single, and I thought he should have been called safe due to the Marlins’ catcher blocking the plate, but what do I know.
• Texas is back to 2 games under .500, and a game back of WC3. Wild Card Fever…catch it!
• Tyler Alexander topped out at 91.7 mph on his sinker. Kumar Rocker reached 95.9 mph on his sinker, averaging 94.2 mph. Robby Ahlstrom’s fastball maxed out at 95.1 mph. Jakob Junis’s sinker touched 93.3 mph. Jacob Latz hit 96.6 mph with his fastball.
• Jake Burger had a 111.4 mph line out. Elias Diaz had a 109.3 mph groundout. Brandon Nimmo had a 107.5 mph single, a 105.8 mph double and a 101.6 mph single. Alejandro Osuna had a 106.6 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 104.7 mph single. Ezequiel Duran had a 103.4 mph homer and a 100.7 mph GIDP. Wyatt Langford had a 102.5 mph groundout.
• One down, nine to go.