It’s Cinco de Mayo, and by the looks of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s series odds, they’re going to bust the Los Angeles Lakers open like a piñata.
Oklahoma City is laying more than -15 at home in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal after thrashing L.A. in the regular season. Rather than tangle with that pile of chalk, my Lakers vs. Thunder predictions swing my focus to the individual efforts in the series opener.
Here are my best NBA picks and Lakers vs. Thunder props on May 5.
Best Lakers vs Thunder props for Game 1
Player
Pick
Deandre Ayton
Over 0.5 assists
-130
Alex Caruso
Over 7.5 points
-105
Marcus Smart
Over 1.5 threes
-135
Game 1 Prop #1: Deandre Ayton Over 0.5 assists
-130 at bet365
It’s just one little assist. How hard could it be?
The Thunder roll out twin 7-footers in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, and Ayton shrank like he was swimming in cold water over his four matchups with OKC. He averaged 5.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and barely a blip in the assist column.
He’s not getting easy looks from the post here, which means passing to the perimeter or finding teammates in motion. Ayton will also wrangle a couple of offensive rebounds, likely kicking out to an open shooter. If this massive spread holds true, L.A. will be letting it fly from distance to keep pace.
Ayton did record at least one dime in four of his six Round 1 contests, and while he managed only a single assist in those four meetings with OKC, he registered eight potential dimes.
Player projections all lean toward at least one helper from the Lakers’ big man, with forecasts ranging from 0.9 to 1.2 assists in Game 1.
Game 1 Prop #2: Alex Caruso Over 7.5 points
-105 at bet365
The ghosts of "Purple and Gold" past will hunt the Lakers in Round 2. Former L.A. pest Alex Caruso is playing a key role for Oklahoma City with Jalen Williams sidelined with a hamstring injury.
The reserve guard is a two-way contributor for OKC, watching his usage jump from 12.1% to 17.5% since Williams went down in Game 2 against Phoenix.
Caruso opened with efforts of two and seven points on a combined 4-for-10 shooting in the first two playoff contests. His minutes and offensive activity increased, scoring 13 and 14 points in the final two games while firing up a 10-for-16 count from the field.
His scoring props have climbed from 5.5 O/U to 7.5 O/U, and Game 1 projections are pretty much on the fence with his current 7.5-point prop total. I see a higher ceiling.
Caruso has averaged more than nine points over the past two playoff runs and gets a bump in the offensive pecking order as long as Williams is out. And for what it’s worth, he put up six, 10, and 17 points vs. the Lakers this season.
Game 1 Prop #3: Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Threes
-135 at bet365
If Los Angeles is to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s powerful offense, it needs all hands to hit shots. For veteran guard Marcus Smart, that means making from beyond the arc.
Smart ran hot and cold vs. Houston in Round 1. He did hit two or more triples in four of six games — including a 5-for-7 Game 2 — and shot 44.8% from distance for the series.
Given the beefy spread, the game script says Los Angeles is playing from behind, prompting plenty of 3-point attempts to close the gap. And if OKC has any weakness, it’s protecting the perimeter.
The Thunder allow foes to fire at 36.7% on the season, including 36.3% from Phoenix in Round 1. Oklahoma City's tight interior defense prompts opponents to jack up almost 39 treys per game, while making 14.3 of those long-range looks. That's the third most 3PMs allowed in the NBA.
Smart faced Oklahoma City twice in the regular season, going 5-for-11 from beyond the arc. His Game 1 models range from 1.2 to 2.1 makes from downtown, with most forecasts leaning toward two 3-pointers tonight.
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NEW YORK, NY - MAY 4: Tracy Morgan and Jimmy Fallon hug after the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the New York Knicks during Round Two Game One on May 4, 2026 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
New York so good they can win games in two quarters and change.
Philly so bad they can’t even beat the Knicks’ bench mob in a garbage-time war.
Here’s the latest after Game 1.
"It's a lot of fun when you have concepts on either end of the floor and the guys are trying to embrace those concepts at the highest level"
“I thought it was a really good game by our guys.”
On his offensive concepts clicking in the playoffs:
“It’s a lot of fun when you have concepts on either end of the floor and guys are trying to embrace those concepts at the highest level. When they do, it doesn’t really matter what you call or initiates the action because guys are trying to play the right way. It can be any team out on the floor. If they’re trying to embrace what you’re throwing out there, sacrificing, all of that other stuff, it can be a lot of fun to watch.”
On Philadelphia’s record with Embiid and Maxey playing together:
“A lot of people when they look at this they see, I think they were seventh [in the East]. They see seven versus three and they automatically assume we’ll win. When that combination was on the floor together, they won I think almost 65% of their games. They were on pace to be almost a 60-win team . . . That’s better than us record-wise. They’re completely healthy. It’s going to be a tough series.”
On the foul trouble in Game 1:
“It was a good game by our guys. We have to be better with our fouling. We can’t expect them to shoot 34 [free throws]. They doubled us in free throw attempts.”
On Mikal Bridges defending Tyrese Maxey:
“He didn’t shut Maxey down. Maxey missed some shots, and our team defense behind him was pretty good. But the one thing that I give Mikal a lot of credit for is his alertness and his ability to have multiple efforts when guarding Maxey because Maxey is similar to [Stephen Curry], where he’s constantly moving, especially when it comes to the two-man game with [Joel] Embiid. You can’t ever relax. And Mikal did as good as he could, trying to stay with him whether he was moving or when he gave up the basketball.”
On Jalen Brunson attacking the drop coverage:
“Our guys did a good job of setting screens for him, and Jalen’s pace and his change of speed, all that stuff with the basketball, was really good. They like to play in the drop, and [Brunson] was able to come off and get a couple of pocket 3s because we had good screens. When he did that, they’d come up the floor a little bit, and he was able to get by them.”
"Tonight's over with, we have to focus on the next game."
Jalen Brunson speaks with Ashley ShahAhmadi after the Knicks' HUGE Game 1 win. pic.twitter.com/vqCKioMtyH
“I just feel like our focus has been better. Our attention to detail has been better. Honestly, I think those two are very important for us. We gotta continue to do so. Yes, it’s turned into big wins. But that attention to detail will help us in the close wins as well.”
On Mikal Bridges’ impact:
“He’s a huge factor for us and he’s been playing great. There are times throughout the season when every player has his ups and downs, but he stays mentally strong and he stays mentally focused. He comes into work and does his work and his routine and all that stuff. As long as you keep chipping away, things are going to fall in your favor.”
On not overreacting to Game 1:
“Honestly, you’ve got to take this game with a grain of salt. I don’t think we’re going to see that team that we saw in Game 1 in Game 2. They’re going to be ready to go.”
On resetting after a blowout:
“It’s only one game. We start the next game 0-0.”
On passionate Knicks and Sixers fans:
“One thing I know about Philly fans is they’re very passionate. One thing about Knicks fans is they’re very passionate as well. I think the real fans from both teams are gonna show up and support.”
“If it’s similar to what it was in the past, I’ll probably have as many catch-and-shoot opportunities as I want. I’ve got to go out there, shoot the ball with confidence. I’m a good shooter, I know I’m a good shooter. I trust my work.”
On the Knicks’ offensive growth through trial and error:
“A lot of trial and error. Seeing what works, seeing what doesn’t. We’re being unselfish. I think that’s the biggest thing. With where we’re at right now, everyone is unselfish. We’re willing to sacrifice individual numbers and stats for the betterment of the team. When we do that, we’re playing our best basketball.”
On how to deal with Philly going forward:
“We want to play a little fast, so being physical, getting stops, pushing the pace, doing those kinds of things is something we’re trying to do, and we’ve got to keep it up. We need to make sure we’re focused on Game 2 and mentally locked in… They’re definitely gonna come out aggressive.”
On the key to the Knicks’ world-beating form:
“Where we’re at right now, everyone is being unselfish. We’re willing to sacrifice individual numbers and stats for the betterment of the team. And when we do that, we’re playing our best basketball. Being unselfish, that’s the biggest thing.”
"You always want to peak later in the season. Just the process of the year, that's how it went. Now we're starting to click, hopefully continue to get better & better. We have a really talented team, threats all over the place. It's very hard to guard."
“You always want to peak later in the season, so this is the process of the year. We’re starting to click, and hopefully getting better and better. We’re a really tough team with threats all over the place. It’s very hard to guard.”
On playing to his standard:
“I think I work on my game very hard, and my teammates are finding me. I think I’m just playing the way I expect to play.”
On continuing to improve:
“There’s still room for improvement on both sides. Never be satisfied. You always want to improve.”
Karl-Anthony Towns was asked if he thinks the Knicks have saved their best basketball of the season for the playoffs:
"I would hope so. That's the hope, you hope that at this time, you're the best version of yourselves." pic.twitter.com/62zxEtsZf9
On the culmination of the never-ending regular-season tinkering:
“I think right now, we’re seeing the culmination of the trials and tribulations that we went through in the regular season.”
On quarterbacking the offense:
“I just love that I get to get my teammates involved and I get a chance to quarterback the offense and put them in positions where I feel they can succeed. They’re trusting me more with the ball right now, and I want to continue to repay their trust with the right plays and make the right decisions.”
On executing Brown’s system:
“I think we’re doing a good job of executing what we want to do and a better understanding of the new system. We’re doing a great job of cutting and bringing energy to our cuts and putting ourselves into positions where we can succeed.”
On the need for three more wins after starting on the right foot:
“We’re playing well, but it doesn’t mean anything if we can’t find a way to get three more wins.”
On hoping this is their best version of the Knicks:
“I would hope so, that’s the hope. You hope that at this time you’re the best version of ourselves. For all the guys who’ve been covering us all year, I’ve always talked about that, getting better one percent every single day. At the end, we need to be proud and happy of the result we bring in the playoffs. I think right now we’re seeing a culmination of the trials and tribulations we went through in the season to be at this point.”
On how the Knicks got here:
“For us to be executing at this level speaks to the unity our team has right now. The sacrifice being made by all of us for the greater good of the team. You see it even in a game like Game 6 in Atlanta, it was just a total team effort. I think tonight as well was a total team effort, everyone came to execute our game plan and I thought we did a great job of executing.”
This moment between Kelly Oubre & Karl-Anthony Towns. 🤣🤣
“They had it going. They were really great tonight. They’re a great team and they were really great tonight.”
On reviewing past matchups before the series:
“You look back, certainly some stuff you can take from it. You try to get as current as you can with what they’re doing in the playoffs. They had their ups and downs, finished on a huge up. You try to take anything from what Atlanta was doing, see what changes they made from game to game.”
On turnovers and playoff physicality overwhelming them in Game 1:
“It was super physical. I think they played really physical. We did get to the line some, but I thought in that same kind of run, I think we had three turnovers, and they were just kind of on-ball.”
On committing costly mistakes on Monday:
“You can’t do that in the playoffs.”
On the blowout loss feeling inevitable:
“It was too easy for them. I didn’t think we handled it great. It wasn’t any fun to be a part of. To sit and watch.”
On pulling Joel Embiid in the third quarter:
“I took him out because there was no sense in getting tireder than we were.”
On the team’s overall performance:
“It was a pretty tough night for everybody. I didn’t think we shot it particularly well, but I don’t think we generated nearly as good of shots.”
Joel Embiid was in a lot of pain after taking a hit to his midsection when setting a screen on Mikal Bridges last night.
"I guess I gotta protect it more. I don't know if it was dirty or not…Tyrese was already gone. It was after the play. It just felt like it was unnecessary." pic.twitter.com/YB9GZl5xu6
On not getting as many free throws as he thinks he should have:
“I don’t know. You got to ask Jalen Brunson (about foul baiting). I don’t think I got to the free throw [line] as much as as I wanted, but that’s not, that’s not the reason, you know, why we lost. We just gotta think defense was the biggest reason. We just weren’t connected enough, not physical enough. All the guys were just too comfortable. So, yeah. I’m only focused about what we could have done better on defensive back.”
“It doesn’t matter if we would’ve lost by one or 40 or 50. It doesn’t matter. A loss is a loss. But I think it just starts with playing harder.”
On Mikal Bridges’ ribcage-hit:
“I don’t think that [play] was necessary, (but) it’s playoff basketball. If that’s the reality of it, I guess we’ve got to go out and be physical, too, and do it, too.”
The Giants won the series opener, 3-2, versus the Padres on Monday. The three-game set continues with Logan Webb and Walker Buehler on the mound Tuesday night.
San Francisco's six game losing streak was snapped with the 3-2 win yesterday. The Giants have been outscored 29-12 over that seven game stretch. In the last week (six games), the Giants have a 3.10 ERA (8th) and a 1.17 WHIP (7th).
San Diego is now 1-5 over the last six games and have been outscored 31-14 in that six-game stretch. In the past week, the Padres are hitting an MLB-worst .176 with 27 hits.
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.
Game details & how to watch Padres at Giants
Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Time: 9:45 PM EST
Site: Oracle Park
City: San Francisco, CA
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Padres at the Giants
The latest odds as of Tuesday:
Moneyline: San Diego Padres (+109), San Francisco Giants (-131)
Spread: Giants +1.5 (+159), Padres +1.5 (-194)
Total: 7.5
Probable starting pitchers for Padres at Giants
Tuesday's pitching matchup (May 5): Walker Buehler vs. Logan Webb
The Giants’ Luis Arraez is hitting .316 with 42 hits and 53 total bases over 133 at-bats
The Giants’ Patrick Bailey is hitting .152 with 12 hits and 20 strikeouts over 79 at-bats
The Padres’ Xander Bogaerts is hitting .262 with 32 hits and 49 total bases over 122 at-bats
The Padres’ Jake Croneworth is hitting .144 with 14 hits and 23 strikeouts over 97 at-bats
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Giants
The Giants are 15-20 ATS this season
The Padres are 19-15 ATS this season
The Giants are 14-18-3 to the Over this season
The Padres are 15-18-1 to the Over this season
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Padres and the Giants
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday's game two between the Giants and the Padres:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Giants on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Giants at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Over on the Game Total of 8.0
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MACAU, MACAU - OCTOBER 10: Joseph Tsai reacts during NBA China Games 2025 between Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets at The Venetian Macao on October 10, 2025 in Macau, Macau. (Photo by Zhizhao Wu/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Back in October when the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns traveled to Macao for the NBA China Games, there was a lot of attention paid to the return of the league to China and, for Brooklyn fans, the debut of the Flatbush 5.
Then, near the end of the celebrations, somewhat out of the spotlight, NBA China and Alibaba, the giant e-commerce and AI/Cloud software provider headed by Nets owner Joe Tsai, announced an artificial intelligence/ Cloud deal that could ultimately change the way NBA fans everywhere watch their favorite teams, perhaps the whole fan experience.
The press release was filled with a lot of corporate and tech talk but the bottom line was that China will be a proving ground for Alibaba’s AI/Cloud technology … which, if it works in China, may find its way to screens from Brooklyn to Beijing. (Simple description of AI and Cloud: AI focuses on creating smart systems that can think, learn, and solve problems; Cloud computing lets people store and access data over the internet, offering flexibility, easy scaling, and cost savings.)
NBA China will utilize Alibaba Cloud’s AI and cloud computing services to support a wide range of digital fan engagement initiatives, including the development of a proprietary AI model for NBA China based on Alibaba’s Qwen series of foundational models. The proprietary AI model, fine-tuned with the league’s range of digital assets, will provide NBA App users in China with engaging content including real-time game highlights, historical basketball data, player insights and interactive discussions on trending basketball topics.
Call it “immersive,” sure. But a better description of the Alibaba’s 360 Real Time Replay System might be “hyper-personalized.“ Fans — and players — got a taste of it at the NBA House in Macao, set up by the league and featuring a very specific Nets experience…
There was also a taste of game action on whatever screen they prefer once the NBA games are broadcast in China next season…
Fans might ask isn’t this a bit of old hat? Haven’t we seen this on national TV games or even on YES Network?Things like 360 degree views, etc. have been a staple of sports programming for more than decade. BUT the difference now is that the technology was exclusively the realm of directors sitting in front of banks of monitors in TV studios or high-tech production trucks. Now the average fan will have it all right in front of them. Welcome to the age of hyper-personalized sports viewing, fan as director.
Fans will be able to create alternate endings, rejigger game flows, take events that occur and compare them to the opposite outcome and move on. Player impact and coaching decisions will get new scrutiny What if Nic Claxton nails a put back he had missed on the court? If Egor Demin’s foot was behind the line on a three? If Nolan Traore’s alley oop doesn’t go astray” or if A.J. Dybantsa or Cam Boozer or Kingston Flemings had more experience? Did Jordi Fernandez make the right call? And all of it won’t be in some dry static recitation, but a highly produced video. The technology in general is fast advancing.
That’s why the league’s enthusiasm level for the technology is so high: more fan engagement. In February at the All-Star Game in Los Angeles, Adam Silver spoke about it at his annual press conference. Although the Q and A that day was dominated by tanking questions, the commissioner suggested that the media was missing something about AI and the fan experience. His comments, though not well publicized, were extensive.
“One area in particular that I think is worth addressing is the impact on the fan experience. And one of the things that we’re beginning to see already is how we’re going to be able to, more than personalize, almost hyper-personalize our telecasts, allowing people to experience the game in any way they want.
“Many of you have probably experimented with this already, but in essence, you’ll be able to hear the game in any dialect, any language, you’ll be able to hear a hardcore X’s and O’s commentary, maybe one that’s more comedic if that’s what you’re interested, or somebody for a novice explaining each foul and the rules as it goes along.”
Adam Silver: "There's no doubt that AI will have the same impact on sports… how we're going to be able to [hyper-personalize] our telecasts… We're about to witness probably the most significant change, certainly in my lifetime, in how sports are presented." 🏀📺🎙️ #NBApic.twitter.com/ZS6ZZjvidv
“To me, we’re about to witness probably the most significant change, certainly in my lifetime, in how sports are presented,” Silver proclaimed. “Beyond that, the hyper-personalization, if people want to shop during a game, if they want to be on social media and having an ongoing discussion about some aspect about the game, I think it’s a really exciting moment and transformation.”
So, the NBA China deal with Alibaba has become, as Silver noted, part of an under appreciated movement in the league, one of several innovative programs dealing not just with video but new way to view statistics and game flow. In other deals, the NBA is developing similar AI/Cloud technology that will change other elements of the fan experience. But in the video arena, Alibaba has the most experience, most success … and it’s been driven by Tsai.
For the past four Olympiads, summer and winter, Alibaba’s Qwen technology has been the at the center of Alibaba’s role as the official AI/Cloud provider to the International Olympic Committee, developing new tools along the way that can be used in their NBA experience.
“The Olympics is the greatest sporting stage in the world,” Tsai told NetsDaily recently. “We help the Olympic Broadcasting System build a fan experience never seen before. Whether it’s a skier’s aerial rotation or a basketball player’s contested shot, when you see an instant replay in 3D from 360 view, the fan becomes a participant in the game.
“We also brought this replay technology to the NBA China Games last October to transform the fan viewing experience, and the NBA loved it.”
“It’s been an amazing enabler,” said Sotiris Salamouris, Chief Technology Officer of the Olympic Broadcasting Services of Alibaba’s technology at the Milan/Cortina Olympics said in February. “We’re so happy to be working with Alibaba because a could provider of that size and sophistication would be able to continue scaling up.
“Cloud is about efficiency, explained Salamouris who noted that Alibaba was able to deal with some unique challenges of the 2026 Winter Games. The Olympic Broadcast System produced nearly 1,000 hours of live sports coverage and another 5,000 of interviews, features. Moreover, the 2026 Games were also the most far flung with many venues in remote locations…
“It is an exciting time at the intersection of sports and technology,” Tsai said in October at the time of the NBA China deal. “AI and cloud technologies are enablers of connection—between player and fan, brand and consumer, global vision and local culture. By collaborating with NBA China and introducing Alibaba’s latest innovations, we are here to excite NBA fans through the enablement of exceptional experiences that they’ve never seen before.”
In addition to the NBA and Olympics, Alibaba has also signed deals with the international federations governing squash and aquatics to improve their offerings. It’s become a corporate priority.
Alibaba also is working its other technologies into the sports mix. One example is the company’s Qwen Glasses, their challenger to Meta’s Ray-Ban model. They’ll be marketed China next year as well. While not specifically designed or marketed for sports, both technologies share an underlying idea: using AI to layer real-time information into a live experience. The 360 replay does this at the broadcast level; the glasses bring that same concept to the individual user.
The NBA has other innovative AI/Cloud deals, particularly with AWS, the “Official Cloud and Cloud AI Partner of the NBA and its affiliate leagues, including the WNBA, NBA G League, Basketball Africa League.” Indeed, the Alibaba contract with the NBA is limited to China but the technology could make its way to NBA screens through AWS.
press release announcing that deal back in 2025 focused more on its “basketball intelligence platform” rather than video. The combination, of course, is ideal According to the NBA, it “turns billions of data points into compelling insights and interactive experiences for fans.”
There will be new AI-powered stats that capture aspects of basketball performance that have not been measured previously – Defensive Box Score, Shot Difficulty and Gravity.
Leverage, the newest metric from NBA, aims to quantify the moments and players that have the highest impact on the game’s outcome. “While the final minutes of a close game are undeniably high-leverage situations, a player’s back-to-back 3-pointers in the early 3rd quarter may have more impact on the game’s outcome than one might think.” the league said in announcing it earlier this year.
How will it filter down to the Net fans? National TV rights holders — like Amazon — will be incorporating more and more of AI/Cloud into their coverage, and over the long-term, it’s easy to imagine fans, particularly younger fans with video game experience, embracing the technology. As Tsai said just this past week, AI/Cloud technology is different, explaining that real time usage of the technology generates new data which in turn feeds back into the model which derives even more usage.
Moreover, the technology will not be limited to fans. It will become part of the coaching, scouting and other NBA front office decisions. The Nets haven’t publicized any AI cooperation with Alibaba … if indeed any exists. When Tsai was asked if AI is a component in the Nets scouting, he brushed it off by saying that the Nets have enough human intelligence.
AI/Cloud technology is, of course, the most controversial technology of this century as worries mount about the effect on unemployment, AI data centers’ need for huge amounts of water and electricity and the possibility that it could someday, somehow challenge human intelligence. For example, AI’s efficiencies have dramatically reduced NBC Sports footprint at the Olympics where so many of the thousands of employees sent to the venues were engaged with satellite technology. That’s now the realm of Al/Cloud technology. There are other geopolitical concerns as well. Alibaba is also a key driver of China’s AI/Cloud push. Will that ultimately become an issue?
But in the meantime, it’s going to be big in NBA fans’ engagement and appreciation of the game and the man who owns the Nets and Liberty is its big advocate.
It’s Shohei Ohtani Day at Daikin Park as the Los Angeles Dodgers face the Houston Astros on May 5.
My Dodgers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect Los Angeles to come away with the win in what will be a low-scoring affair.
Who will win Dodgers vs Astros today: Dodgers (-225)
Shohei Ohtani is an early leader for the Cy Young, allowing just two earned runs over his first 30 frames.
He gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a substantial starting pitching edge over the Houston Astros. Although Peter Lambert has been effective (3.52 ERA), he’ll likely regress toward his 6.12 career ERA given his underwhelming stuff (93 Stuff+).
When it gets to the bullpen, Houston has a league-worst 6.22 ERA in relief. The arms are taxed after essentially throwing two consecutive bullpen games, making this a tough spot.
COVERS INTEL: Houston thrives by hitting for average (.284), but it’ll be difficult to string together hits against Ohtani and his .183 xBA.
Dodgers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
The Under has hit in four of the five games Ohtani has started, and I’m going to keep riding that trend until it stops reaping profit.
It works twofold. On the mound, he’s arguably been the sport’s best starting pitcher, suppressing runs at an elite rate. Since Dave Roberts has been removing Ohtani from the lineup on days he starts lately, it deprives the Boys in Blue of their best hitter.
L.A. has been slumping at the plate lately, averaging 3.2 runs across its last six games. Without Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman in the lineup, this may not be a “blow-up” offensive spot but more of a low-scoring win instead.
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 9-8, +0.14 units
Over/Under bets: 12-6, +5.7 units
Dodgers vs Astros odds
Moneyline: Dodgers -220 | Astros +212
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | Astros +1.5 (+110)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Dodgers vs Astros trend
The Dodgers have hit the Under in five of their last seven away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Astros.
How to watch Dodgers vs Astros and game info
Location
Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
First pitch
8:10 p.m. ET
TV
TBS
Dodgers starting pitcher
Shohei Ohtani (2-1, 0.60 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher
Peter Lambert (1-2, 3.52 ERA)
Dodgers vs Astros latest injuries
Dodgers vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Milwaukee Brewers dropped the series opener to the St. Louis Cardinals 6-3 at Busch Stadium.
My Brewers vs. Cardinals predictionssee the road team flipping the script, facing a pitcher they’ve enjoyed plenty of success against.
Let’s dive deeper into my daily MLB picks for Tuesday, May 5.
Who will win Brewers vs Cardinals today: Brewers moneyline (-110)
Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.
He has also improved as the season progressed. Sproat pitched more than 16 innings over his last three starts, allowing four, four, and six hits, respectively.
If he can keep the ball in the park, the Milwaukee Brewers will be in good shape.
Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup.
COVERS INTEL: Pallante has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts against Milwaukee.
Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-120)
Sproat has done a better job of limiting baserunners of late. Untimely homers have led to bigger run totals, which is less of a concern in 50F weather, where the winds will be blowing in.
If Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and is tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.
Colder weather and Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the St. Louis Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 12-5, +4.88 units
Over/Under bets: 7-10, -4.06 units
Brewers vs Cardinals odds
Moneyline: Brewers -110 | Cardinals -110
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+160) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Brewers vs Cardinals trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Brewers vs Cardinals and game info
Location
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
First pitch
7:45 p.m. ET
TV
Brewers.TV, Cardinals.TV
Brewers starting pitcher
Brandon Sproat (0-2, 6.75 ERA)
Cardinals starting pitcher
Andre Pallante (3-2, 3.73 ERA)
Brewers vs Cardinals latest injuries
Brewers vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MAY 04: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Minnesota Timberwolves works against Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter in Game One of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Frost Bank Center on May 04, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Game One of the San Antonio Spurs second-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves was a tough, physical contest. Both teams struggled to score for most of the games. The Wolves went on a 14-2 run to build a 9-point lead, the biggest of the game. San Antonio surged back late, but fell just short in a 104-102 loss.
The Timberwolves have now grabbed a 1-0 series lead and stolen home court advantage. That’s important because Minnesota has not lost at home in these playoffs. Despite the loss, the Spurs are still -360 favorites to win Game Two at home on FanDuel.
San Antonio will need more offense in Game Two. Their two stars, Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox, combined for 21 points on 10-31 shooting on Monday. We’ll start with them for our Game One player grades. As a quick reminder, these grades are based on each player’s on-court performance, going beyond just the stat sheet. A “B” grade represents the average performance for an individual. If a player logs fewer than 5 minutes or plays only in garbage time, their grade will be incomplete.
If you just looked at the box score, you’d think this was one of Wembanyama’s best games of the postseason. He had a triple-double with 12 blocks, the most in any NBA Playoff game. He was great at protecting the rim for most of the game, but in the fourth quarter, the Wolves were able to pull him away from the basket or set Gortat screens on him under the rim, where he couldn’t get to shots. As a result, Minnesota ran a much more efficient offense than San Antonio and ultimately won the game.
The Spurs have to find ways to get Wembanyama the ball in advantageous situations in this series. He did not get many strong looks in the half-court. Most of his possessions were spent at the top of the arc as a screener and passer, rather than coming off screens for jumpers or rolling to the rim for lobs. As a result, Wembanyama never got into a rhythm and had a rare, inefficient shooting night. The counting stats were impressive, but his overall impact on the game was more limited than usual.
Bring out your pitchforks and torches! Fox had a bad game!
Hopefully, we’ve learned not to overreact to one game. Fox struggled mightily to make an impact on offense when the Spurs needed him most. He racked up turnovers, some of them very bad ones, and couldn’t get a shot to fall. Near the end of the game, he finally started to push the pace and score around the rim. It seems like he doesn’t have the same athletic advantage in this game that he had against Portland in Round One.
Fox is far too gifted for this to continue throughout the series. He started to figure things out late in the game. Perhaps that offensive outburst will continue into Game Two.
Castle will be vital to the Spurs’ success in this series. San Antonio needed his tough defense to match the Wolves’ physicality. He fouled out of the game, but some of those were just about getting caught in a bad situation with two physical players. With Anthony Edwards seemingly healthy enough to make a real impact on the series, Castle will be tasked with slowing him down.
Dylan Harper led the team in scoring, but Castle’s offense was the most impressive to me. He knocked down open spot-up jumpers and was one of the few Spurs who could get to the rim and draw fouls, going 6-8 from the free-throw line. They’ll need him to play more than 28 minutes to compete in this series.
Champagnie helped the Spurs tremendously with his rebounding down the stretch. He had 3 offensive rebounds, many of them contested, to keep San Antonio alive. That’s why it was fitting that the ball found him with seconds remaining on the clock. If Champagnie’s game-winning three-pointer goes down, we are having a different conversation about this series. It was a great look from the team’s best three-point shooter. He’ll have more chances to redeem himself in the series, as the Spurs will desperately need his floor spacing.
Speaking of shooters stretching the floor, Vassell did just that, shooting 3-for-6 from deep on Monday. His shooting gave the Spurs offense a boost. San Antonio could use more mid-range jumpers from Vassell. He wasn’t able to get many of them off due to the Wolves’ length. It felt like those mid-range J’s he usually nails were not available with Rudy Gobert roaming the paint.
Vassell swiped the ball away three times, but his defense may remain an issue in the series. Minnesota went at Vassell when he switched onto Julius Randle. That defensive matchup caused a lot of problems for the Spurs late in the game. Finding out how to deal with Randle while smaller players are on the floor should be a key for San Antonio moving forward.
Harper led the Spurs in scoring on Monday. He and Castle were really the only Spurs guards who could attack the basket in the half-court. His touch around the rim allows him to finish around or through Minnesota’s bigger defenders. Defensively, Harper did an inspired job on Edwards. Harper has the strength and quickness to keep up with the Wolves’ star. I’d like to see more of that matchup as the series progresses.
After struggling against Portland, Johnson finally got back to his game of bullying his way to the rim and finishing. He was limited on the boards, and his defense late in the game was not great. He missed key defensive rotations and was toast when he switched onto Edwards. The Spurs need more of the hard-nosed Johnson they saw in the regular season, especially against Minnesota.
The Wolves attacked the basket like crazy when Kornet was in the game. He was a liability on both ends in Game One, posting a -7 plus-minus in just 8 minutes. One thing Kornet could afford to add is a push shot in the paint, as so many big men have utilized to score when the defense is on its heels. There were several occasions when Kornet could have had a bucket if he had a floater or a pop-a-shot look in his bag of tricks.
Barnes grabbed three offensive rebounds and did a lot of the little things in his limited minutes. The Spurs might need him in this series as they are forced to play bigger to match up with Minnesota. If that is the case, they’ll need Barnes to hit a hot streak from three, as he’s been cold so far in the playoffs.
Grade:B-
Inactives: Harrison Ingram, David Jones-Garcia, Emanuel Miller
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 3: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers talks with pitching coach Mark Prior #92 in the dugout during the first inning of the spring training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Goodyear Ballpark on March 3, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Brock Stewart rejoined the Dodgers in Houston after his three weeks on a minor league rehab assignment. He did not get activated Monday, after pitching on Sunday for Triple-A Oklahoma City, but will likely end his injured-list stint at some point during this series against the Astros.
That means one pitcher will be optioned to the minors to make room on the active roster for Stewart.
Going by the “last in, first out” method, left-hander Jake Eder would be the one on the way out. Eder joined the team on April 20 when closer Edwin Díaz was placed on the injured list. Eder has been fine, allowing one run in his four innings, but he’s appeared at the end of lopsided games, entering while ahead by 10 runs, up eight, down two, and down three runs. His average leverage index is lowest among all Dodgers pitchers in 2026, save for the lone mound appearance by position player Miguel Rojas.
Kyle Hurt began the season in the minors and joined Los Angeles on April 13, when Ben Casparius was placed on the injured list. He’s excelled since, with 11 strikeouts and only one walk in eight innings in his eight appearances, with one run allowed, though he’s pitched in nearly as low-leverage situations on average as Eder.
Edgardo Henriquez has been active all season. After entering in a tie game on March 27 in his first appearance of the season, he’s either come into games when the Dodgers were trailing or up by five or more runs. He has 10 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings in his 11 games, but also a 5.23 ERA and 4.04 xERA and six walks.
Today’s question is who do you think will get optioned once Brock Stewart is activated?
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons meet in the semifinals of the Eastern Conference after seven game series in the first round. Cleveland beat Toronto after up 2-0 then tied 2-2, while Detroit beat Orlando after being down 3-1.
Detroit is the No. 1 seed and had the No. 1 net rated defense in the first round. The Pistons' main struggles were on offense. Detroit had a high turnover percentage (17.2%, 14th out of 16) and struggled with three-point shooting (32.7%, 12th). The Pistons went 3-1 at home versus the Magic in the first round and won three straight.
The home team went 7-0 in the Cleveland and Toronto series, which should give Detroit hope. The Cavaliers shot 27.8% from three (14th), 41.4% from the field (11th), and turned the ball over 19.3 times per game (15th) as the road team in the first round. Cleveland has lost four straight playoff road games.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Date: Thursday, May 5, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EST
Site: Little Caesars Arena
City: Detroit, MI
Network/Streaming: NBC Sports / Peacock
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Game Odds: Cavaliers vs. Pistons
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Detroit Pistons (-148), Cleveland Cavaliers (+124)
Spread: Pistons -3.5
Total: 215.5 points
This game opened Pistons -3.5 with the Total set at 214.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Cleveland Cavaliers
PG James Harden
SG Donovan Mitchell
SF Dean Wade
PF Evan Mobley
C Jarrett Allen
Detroit Pistons
PG Cade Cunningham
SG Duncan Robinson
SF Ausar Thompson
PF Tobias Harris
C Jalen Duren
Injury Report: Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
None
Detroit Pistons
Kevin Huerter (hip) is listed as QUESTIONABLE for Game 1
Important stats, trends and insights: Pistons vs. Magic
Detroit is 47-42 ATS and 19-20 ATS as the home favorite
Detroit is 47-41-1 to the Under
Detroit is 23-21 to the Under at home
Detroit is 20-19 to the Under as a home favorite
Detroit is 23-21 ATS as the home team
Cleveland is 36-53 ATS, ranking second-worst
Cleveland is 17-27 ATS as the road team, ranking second-worst
Cleveland is 8-5 ATS as the road underdog, ranking fifth-worst
Cleveland is 45-44 to the Over
Cleveland is 25-19 to the Over as the road team, ranking fifth-best
Cleveland is 7-6 to the Under as a road underdog
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s Cavaliers and Pistons’ game:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Cavaliers’ Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Cavaliers +3.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 202.5
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Tampa Bay Lightning captain Victor Hedman has revealed what kept him off the ice for the last part of the NHL regular season and the playoffs, acknowledging in a statement released by the team that he "made a decision to step away and focus on my mental health."
"I've always believed that being a leader means doing what's best for the team," Hedman said in a statement issued on Tuesday, May 5. "In this case, it also meant doing what was necessary to take care of myself, so I can be the best player, teammate, husband and father I expect to be."
The standout defenseman last played in a game for Tampa Bay on March 19. Over his 17 seasons in the NHL, all with the Lightning, he has played 1,164 games, tallying 172 goals and 639 assists for 811 points.
A nine-time All-Star and 2018 Norris Trophy winner, the 35-year-old Hedman also captured the Conn Smythe Trophy when he led the Lightning to a 2020 Stanley Cup title.
"Wearing this jersey – and serving as captain – is the greatest responsibility of my professional life. That responsibility doesn’t only apply on the ice," Hedman said. "Over the past couple of months, I made the decision to step away and focus on my mental health. It was not an easy decision, but it was the right one."
Liverpool principal owner John Henry has insisted Fenway Sports Group "don't settle for mediocrity" amid disappointing performances from its two biggest assets; the Boston Red Sox and the Premier League holders.
Henry was responding to his sacking of the long-serving Red Sox manager Alex Cora in April after the team won just 10 of their first games of their Major League Baseball campaign.
After Sunday's defeat by rivals Manchester United, Liverpool have now lost 18 times in all competitions - their most in a single campaign since suffering the same amount under Brendan Rodgers in 2014-15.
In an email to the Sports Business Journal, Henry referenced an incident when fans criticised the ownership recently, while emphasising the need for hard work in order to turn fortunes around.
"Fans get frustrated. The Sox looked terrible for (their) first 25 games," he wrote.
"I remember a plane flying overhead when we were beating Manchester United 7-0 that read 'FSG OUT!'.
"It doesn't mean you ignore them, it means you work harder – you don't settle for mediocrity. You have to win."
Some Liverpool fans have recently been protesting against planned ticket price increases over the next three years, while some supporters have called for Arne Slot to become the first Reds title-winning boss to be sacked the following year.
May 4, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford (3) celebrates with first baseman Josh Naylor (12) after hitting a two-run home run during the sixth inning against the Atlanta Braves at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
Happy Tuesday! In an exciting and much-needed win, the Mariners scored five runs in the sixth inning last night to secure a 5-4 win at home. Home runs from Luke Raley and J.P. Crawford powered starter Logan Gilbert to his second win of the season in the series opener against the Atlanta Braves. George Kirby takes the mound tonight against RHP Bryce Elder for the 6:40 PM start.
In Mariners news…
ICYMI: Gabe Speier was placed on the 15-day IL prior to yesterday’s game due to left shoulder inflammation. In a few additional roster moves, LHP Josh Simpson has been recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, RHP Cole Wilcox has been optioned to Triple-A Tacoma, and Jose Suarez has reported to the club.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 29: Luis Severino #40 of the Athletics pitches in the top of the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Sutter Health Park on April 29, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Justine Willard/Athletics/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to Tuesday everyone!
The A’s had their off day yesterday and now it’s time to get ready for game action to resume. The team is on the road and on the East Coast yet again, their third trip to the other side of the country already. Not a fun travel schedule to open the year but on the bright side they’re getting these longer trips out of the way early.
We’re in Philadelphia tonight to take on the Phillies in the first of three. The high-priced Phillies, whose $282 million payroll ranks fifth in all of baseball, came into this year with sky-high expectations after winning the NL East. They unfortunately ran into the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round and got knocked out in four games, but they brought back essentially the same team that won 96 games.
Things have not gone their way this season however. They’re sitting in fourth place in their division entering this series at just 14-20, behind the Nationals ($92 million, 26th) and Marlins ($77 million, 30th). They are 10 1/2 games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves, and a lot of that has to do with under performance on both sides of the ball.
The Philly offense ranks just 17th in home runs, but more worryingly for them they are near the bottom in batting average (28th), on-base percentage (also 28th), slugging (26th), and total runs scored (27th). They’ve gotten solid production out of players like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh, but the rest of their starting lineup all have an OPS below .700, which should cause panic for Philly fans.
As for their pitching, the team ranks second in all of baseball in strikeouts, but also is just 26th in team ERA. Their pitching staff has given up the most hits in the sport and are tied for fourth in total runs allowed. They’ve certainly missed Zack Wheeler (who only just returned from injury) and Ranger Suarez (FA departure), but veterans Aaron Nola (6.03 ERA), Jesus Luzardo (5.09 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (9.13 ERA) have crippled the Phillies’ starting rotation with poor performances, and top prospect Andrew Painter (5.28 ERA) hasn’t been any better. Meanwhile their bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack as they’ve certainly missed flamethrowing closer Jhoan Duran, who has been on the IL for the past month but is nearing a return, though he’ll likely be activated after the A’s leave town.
Tonight’s series-opening matchup will see right-hander Luis Severino get the ball for the home team. His season to date has certainly seen its peaks and valleys. He has a 4.46 ERA but generally pitches better away from Sacramento. He’s coming off a pair of very strong outings and looks to be on a role entering tonight. He’ll be opposed by Philly ace Cristopher Sanchez, who has kept the Philadelphia rotation afloat with a great 2.90 ERA through his first seven starts.
Wednesday evening’s game will feature left-hander Jeffrey Springs on the mound for the Athletics. The veteran started the year out strong pitching to a 1.46 ERA through his first four starts but he’s been more vulnerable in his past three outings. He actually departed his most recent start with hip tightness but it seems he’s dodged any sort of injury and looks primed for a bounce back against the Phillies, whom he doesn’t have much experience pitching against. He’ll be opposed by Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia’s true ace when healthy. This’ll be his third game since returning from injury and so far he’s looked like he hasn’t skipped a beat. He went five innings of 2-run ball against Atlanta in his first start back, then followed that up with one run allowed over six innings against the Marlins. This could be a tough matchup for the offense if he really is back to his normal self.
And finally the series wraps up on Thursday night with a pitching matchup pitting young right-hander J.T. Ginn against fellow young arm Andrew Painter. Ginn had his first truly bad outing last time out when he allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against the Guardians, though before that he’d been on a roll so he’ll be looking to bounce back and get back on the right path. Painter on the other hand has given up 11 runs over his previous three starts so the A’s may be getting him at the right time when he’s not quite on his game and still figuring things out. This is, after all, his first big league action of his career.
The A’s sit with a two-game lead in the division entering tonight. It’d be great to extend it with a win over an under performing Phillies squad. We’ll be without one of our biggest bats while in Philly as Shea Langeliers gets some time off to be with his wife and newborn son. Hopefully backup Austin Wynns is ready to take advantage of this opportunity. The A’s made a late night move yesterday evening to give Wynns his backup, trading for Jonah Heim from the Atlanta Braves:
The A's have acquired C Jonah Heim from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for cash considerations. In addition, the A’s have placed C Shea Langeliers on the paternity list.
The move reunited Heim and the A’s after the organization traded him to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Elvis Andrus way back in 2021. The catcher would go on to have a successful run in Texas, making the All-Star Team in 2023. He fell off hard after that excellent year however, spending two more years as the Rangers’ primary backup before moving on to Atlanta this past offseason. He’s only made it into 12 games for the Braves so far and now that former Athletic Sean Murphy is back, Heim’s role became redundant. But not for the A’s. He’ll be Wynn’s backup for this Phillies series, and who knows, he could end up sticking around a bit longer even when Langeliers returns.
First pitch is a little earlier than usual for us here on the West Coast. 3:40 start time this evening. Have a great day A’s fans.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 03: Xavier Edwards #9 of the Miami Marlins at bat during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at loanDepot park on May 03, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Wow that was ugly. After a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, the Orioles are making like the snowbirds, leaving the Bronx for the sunnier climate of Miami, and frankly, it’s a relief.
The Marlins are a less scary opponent, but they can’t be taken lightly, either. (And these hot-and-cold Orioles have had a way of playing down to the competition, so you can never get too cocky.) At 16-19, they’re holding down second place in the NL East. They, too, have hot-or-cold tendencies: they took two of three from the mighty Dodgers last week, but have also recently dropped series to St. Louis and Milwaukee.
The Marlins, unusually, are a good-hitting team this year. They’re not much in the power department with a fourth-lowest 25 homers, but their collective .252 average outranks all but seven teams. As a team, they’ve been led by three players playing out of their minds: shortstop Otto Lopez (.341 BA and a MLB-leading 45 hits in 33 games), second baseman Xavier Edwards (.336 BA, .896 OPS) and catcher Liam Hicks (.309 BA, .923 OPS). Hicks, in just his second year, has nearly exceeded his WAR from 120 games his rookie season. Former Orioles friends haven’t excelled: Kyle Stowers has missed time due to a hamstring, and infielder Connor Norby has just been just-OK, with a .238 average and 107 OPS+ so far.
Miami’s starting pitching staff has been a weakness over the last two seasons, despite having a guy like Sandy Alcantara fronting it. This year, the rotation is just above average, while the team’s main weakness lies in the bullpen. The team has blown nine games in which they had a lead, which seems like a sizeable number to me. Closer Pete Fairbanks is on the 15-day IL with nerve irritation, and others, like Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher, have been ineffective.
Following injuries to Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer, a pitching-strapped O’s will be countering with Chris Bassitt, Brandon Young and Cade Povich. Young and Povich in particular are giving Little Engine That Could vibes: you root hard for them, but frequently view them as outmatched.
Game 1: Tuesday, May 5, 6:40 ET
Chris Bassitt (2-2, 5.46, 17 SO) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.04 ERA, 31 SO)
Alcantara opened 2026 with his franchise-record sixth straight Opening Day start, throwing 7 shutout innings against the Rockies. He followed that up with a complete-game shutout of the White Sox on April 1, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in a 10-0 romp. After his rough 2025—a full season back from Tommy John surgery that produced a 5.36 ERA—this looks more like the vintage Alcantara, with a fastball that generally sits around 97 mph and maxes out around 101. His 3.04 ERA comes with a solid 1.16 WHIP.
Signs Chris Bassitt is figuring it out: he’s given up one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Signs he’s not: the Royals tagged him for five runs on eight hits on April 22. The veteran righty has a career 3.68 ERA. I choose to believe.
Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, 6:40 ET
Brandon Young (2-1, 6.14 ERA, 9 SO) vs. RHP Eury Pérez (2-3, 4.46 ERA, 39 SO)
Eury Pérez is 23 years old and already seems to have lived a lifetime in pitcher years. He debuted in 2023 at age 20, posting a nice 3.15 ERA in 19 starts. Then he missed all of 2024 with Tommy John. A 4.25 ERA on his return seemed like a dip, but he had a strong 1.05 WHIP and 3.67 FIP. This season has been his worst so far: his 4.63 FIP suggests he’s getting hit, hard, and so does a 13.9% barrel percentage in the bottom seventh percentile of pitchers. The strikeout stuff is very much present, but he’s also walking more hitters than he ever has. This is the matchup the Orioles need to take advantage of.
Thrust into the rotation by Dean Kremer’s quad injury, the big Texan has had one good start in three tries: a scoreless five innings against the White Sox on April 6. Since, he’s given up three runs in 5 ⅔ innings against Boston and—gulp—ten runs in four innings against Houston. There’s been talk about Young working on his offspeed pitches in the offseason: if so, this would be a good time to see it.
Game 3: Thursday, May 7, 6:40 ET
Cade Povich (1-1, 4.41 ERA, 11 SO) vs. RHP Max Meyer (1-0, 3.30 ERA, 33 SO)
Drafted third overall by the Marlins in 2020, Max Meyer is currently Miami’s best starter in sheer WAR (1.1, edging out Alcantara’s 1.0). Through seven starts he has a 3.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings, averaging 9.9 K/9, with opponents hitting just .207 against him. Length isn’t a strength of his, yet, as he’s averaging just five innings per outing, but he’s been effective. His most recent start saw him throw five scoreless innings against the Giants.
The only southpaw in the rotation right now, Cade Povich is always teetering on the edge of success in the major leagues, it feels like. But inevitably he’ll flash his significant strikeout potential, then lay an egg. This inconsistency works out to a kind of consistency, as he posted nearly identical ERA’s in 2023 and ‘24: 5.20, give or take one hundredths of a point. Like Young, Povich was not supposed to be in the rotation, but that’s where we are. In three starts so far, he’s allowed eight runs in 16.1 innings.
—-
It’s hard to feel massive optimism about the Orioles right now, fresh off a sweep in the Bronx and putting out a starter lineup of Bassitt, Young and Povich heading into Miami. Injuries stink, but this backup plan feels more typical of a rebuilding year than what fans were promised for these next few seasons. Maybe I’m just a grouch. We’ll see if these early May doldrums end up characterizing the season.
So, Birdland faithful, how do you think the Orioles will fare in their trip to the 305? Sound off in the comments.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 29: Detroit pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts during the MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and the Atlanta Braves on April 29th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Now that we are almost a week into May (yikes!) we’ve rearranged our coverage to reflect the risers and fallers in the AL. Gone are the last place Astros while the similarly bottom-dwelling Red Sox have been demoted from the main games into our “other games” section, the second-place Rays taking their spot alongside the Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay Rays (22-12) 5, Toronto Blue Jays (16-19) 1
The 35-year-old journeyman swingman Nick Martinez is quite well traveled in his baseball career, plying his trade for the Rangers, Padres, and Reds sandwiched a round a four-year stint overseas in NPB. He found a new home with the Rays this past winter, inking a one-year, $13 million deal, and has quietly been one of the best starters in the league. This was his seventh start of the year and he has yet to give up more than two runs in any of them. His five innings of one-run ball position his season ERA at a sterling 1.71 — sixth-best among all starters in MLB.
Toronto’s only run came on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI single in the third. By that point, the Rays had done most of their damage for the night. Chandler Simpson singled and Junior Caminero walked to lead off the first, setting up a no-doubter three run blast from Ryan Vilade on a first-pitch curveball below the zone from Eric Lauer.
Taylor Walls tacked on a pair of insurance runs in the sixth, his two-out single plating Jonathan Aranda and Ben Williamson after the Rays loaded the bases with three singles. The Blue Jays created plenty of opportunities with ten hits and two walks on the night. However, Martinez and a quintet of Rays relievers stranded a pair in the first, third, and sixth. Things got interesting when Casey Legumina surrendered three singles in the ninth, but Bryan Baker slammed the door as the Jays went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded ten runners.
Other Games
Boston Red Sox (14-21) 5, Detroit Tigers (18-18) 4
On the day the Tigers learned that two-time defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal requires surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and will miss three months at minimum, the Detroit outfit suffered a back-breaking loss in a game blown by the bullpen. Boston also received bad news on the injury front, Roman Anthony departing the game in the second after injuring his wrist on an awkward check swing.
Forced into an emergency bullpen game with Skubal getting scratched, the Tigers received essentially a Skubal start in the aggregate. Opener Tyler Holton struck out one in a scoreless first, followed by five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts from bulk guy Ty Madden. That allowed their offense to open the scoring with a pair in the sixth on a hit-by-pitch, walk, throwing error on a pickoff attempt, and a throwing error on a routine ground ball.
That would be all for naught, however, as reliever Ricky Vanasco imploded in the seventh. He walked Carlos Narváez and gave up a single to Andruw Monasterio to open the frame, setting up the go-ahead three-run homer from Jarren Duran. A Masataka Yoshida double knocked Vanasco from the game, but the implosion didn’t stop there. Enmanuel De Jesus gave up three straight singles to Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Marcelo Mayer allowing a further pair of runs to score.
Dillon Dingler brought his team to within one with a two-run double in the eighth, but that is where the comeback would end. Payton Tolle collected his first big league win with eight strikeouts across seven innings allowing the pair of unearned runs.
Kansas City Royals (16-19) 6, Cleveland Guardians (18-18) 2
Michael Wacha gave the Royals seven strong innings, the only blemish a David Fry two-run homer in the second. Kansas City scored the next six runs unanswered, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone weighing in with solo homers. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez contributed RBI knocks while Nick Loftin contributed a two-run single in the Royals’ four-run fourth. With the Guardians loss, there is not a single team in the AL Central with a record better than .500, Cleveland and Detroit tied for first at 18-18.
Seattle Mariners (17-19) 5, Atlanta Braves (25-11) 4
The baseball was uncharacteristically flying out of T-Mobile Park, the two teams scoring all nine of their runs via the long ball. Atlanta jumped out to a 4-0 lead with four solo home runs off Logan Gilbert. The first was by Drake Baldwin to lead off the game, while the final three all came in the sixth inning — all blasts of well over 400 feet from Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson (the 300th of his career), and Austin Riley.
The Mariners immediately picked up their starter, exploding for five runs in the bottom of the sixth. Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone drew a pair of walks to lead off, setting up a booming three-run rocket from Luke Raley. Mitch Garver was issued a free pass, and with two outs and a full count, J.P. Crawford smacked the go-ahead two run tank off reliever Tyler Kinley.
Deandre Ayton
Alex Caruso
COVERS INTEL: Houston thrives by hitting for average (.284), but it’ll be difficult to string together hits against 
