The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their third game of the season against the Charlotte Hornets. They are 1-1 in their season series so far. Let’s take a look at what we should keep our eyes on tonight.
3PT Shooting
Last season, the Cavs were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the NBA. I’d argue that high-volume shooting and crisp ball movement were their identity. Now? Not so much.
Cleveland has gradually gone away from the three-point line after leading the league in attempts by a wide margin to start the season. The Cavs are now third in three-point attempts per game this season and have fallen to 13th over their last 15 games.
This is largely because the team has lost much of its three-point talent. Darius Garland, Sam Merrill and Max Strus haven’t been available. Ty Jerome, Caris LeVert, and Georges Niang are no longer on the roster. It’s hard to replicate last season when it simply isn’t the same roster.
That said, I’d like to see the Cavs re-establish themselves as a three-point shooting team. You don’t abandon the identity that made you a 64-win team last season just because the roster has changed. You stick to a process and figure out how to make it work.
Energy and Effort
I wish this weren’t such a theme this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. We might know the outcome of this game in the opening minutes.
Does it look like the Cavs are playing focused, high-effort basketball? Then they’ll win this game easily. But if we get to the second quarter and the team is disorganized, then get ready for a long night.
To their credit, Cleveland has been much more locked in than before. They’ve begun to turn their season around recently, even if a 32-point loss to the Thunder might make you feel otherwise. I have a reasonable amount of faith that the Cavs will approach this game with the appropriate energy.
Evan Mobley’s Usage
I’m going to make this last one simple. Evan Mobley, we need you to score 20+ points tonight. Or at least try to.
The Cavs have lacked offensive firepower this season. And, without Garland again in this matchup, they don’t have many options to turn to. There’s no reason why Mobley shouldn’t be thrust back into the spotlight and expected to carry them with his scoring.
Evan Mobley's FGAs have steadily dropped each month this season
OCT: 14.8 FGAs per game NOV: 13.5 FGAs per game DEC: 12.8 FGAs per game JAN: 12.0 FGAs per game
Cleveland experimented with Mobley’s usage earlier in the season but quickly pulled the plug. That’s not good enough. This team doesn’t reach its ceiling if they don’t push Mobley out of his comfort zone. It’s a two-way street, of course. But an aggressive scoring game from Mobley is long overdue at this point.
The NBA is officially at the midway point in the season with every team playing at least 41 games so far during the 2025-26 campaign. At this point, we have a pretty good feel for the season while acknowledging the many surprises that can still be in store.
Yes, the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are legitimate championship contenders who are way ahead of schedule from how they were seen coming into the season. The Eastern Conference remains wide open, and now the Boston Celtics feel like a legitimate contender for an NBA Finals spot if Jayson Tatum can return from his torn Achilles. The West is still led by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they don’t feel quite as overpowering now as they did during the first 25 games of the season.
With the Feb. 5 trade deadline and the 2026 NBA All-Star Game both approaching, here’s an updated ranking of every team in the league by their championship chances right now.
The Tankers
30. New Orleans Pelicans
29. Indiana Pacers
28. Brooklyn Nets
27. Washington Wizards
26. Sacramento Kings
25. Utah Jazz
24. Dallas Mavericks
23. Charlotte Hornets
The top of the 2026 NBA Draft is absolutely loaded, with Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and A.J. Dybantsa representing one of the strongest top-3s in recent memory. It was always inevitable that a trio this talented would cause mass tanking psychosis eventually this season, and that appears to be happening already. Some caveats do apply: the Pelicans aren’t tanking for anything after trading their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Atlanta for Derik Queen — they’re just really bad. The Mavericks are still hovering around play-in range, but Anthony Davis’ hand injury means they’re probably better off tanking ASAP to maximize the chances of the only first-round pick they control until 2031. The Washington Wizards signaled they’re ready to stop tanking with their trade for Trae Young … after this season at least, as he’s still recovering from various lower body injuries. The Pacers are set up to execute the perfect gap year as Tyrese Haliburton recovers from a torn Achilles.
With the exception of the Kings who need a full teardown and have to deal with a loaded Western Conference, the rest of the teams in this tier feel like they could be in the playoff mix next season with some lottery luck. Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson are franchise cornerstone level prospects to me, and while I have been consistent in ranking Dybantsa third, he could also quickly emerge as an All-Star in the right environment. The winners of this draft lottery will suddenly be gifted a way out of jail. The future of the league will change based on how the ping pong balls bounce, and all of the teams in this tier have at least given themselves a chance to luck into a young star.
Fighting for the play-in tournament
22 Atlanta Hawks
21. Milwaukee Bucks
20. Chicago Bulls
19. Memphis Grizzlies
18. Golden State Warriors
17. Los Angeles Clippers
16. Portland Trail Blazers
15. Miami Heat
This is the worst tier to be in: no shot at doing anything of substance in the playoffs while also having very low odds to cash in lottery luck … aside from the Hawks, who own the Pelicans’ draft pick this year. It feels like almost all of these teams are dealing with some sort of crisis: the Bucks are hopelessly trying to build a contender around Giannis without any assets, the Warriors now have no hope to go on a run after Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL, the Grizzlies are stuck in Ja Morant trade rumor limbo, and the Bulls are in the exact same position every year with no real hope of ever getting better.
The Clippers are surging over the last month, and feel like the one team in this tier could maybe win a playoff series this year. The Blazers also have some good vibes this year with Deni Avdija’s breakout and a solid young core around him led by second-year big man Donovan Clingan. Miami just feels like it’s always waiting to pounce on the next available superstar, but there have been some wasted seasons along the way while they wait. I’ll give credit to the teams in this tier for not wanting to lose on purpose, but at a certain point, the NBA is all about superstars, and if you don’t have one, you might as well try to maximize your chances at landing a future one in the draft.
Solid playoff teams without real title equity
14. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
12. Toronto Raptors
11. Orlando Magic
10. Phoenix Suns
9. Los Angeles Lakers
These teams could give their fans a thrill or two in the playoffs, but it’s hard to see them winning four straight series to claim the championship. It’s a tier with an equal mix of surprises and disappointments: the Cavs were supposed to be a legit title contender but haven’t looked the part all year, the Suns were supposed to be at the bottom of the West before morphing into the season’s most pleasant surprise, the Sixers’ youth movement has carried the team as Joel Embiid and Paul George have battled injuries, and the Lakers are just plain confusing with an encouraging record but a negative point-differential. I find Orlando — my preseason Eastern Conference champion pick! — to be the most frustrating team on this list. Paolo Banchero has been up-and-down and the team is once again better with him off the floor. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs should be ascendent two-way players but injuries keep slowing their momentum. Anthony Black is having a legit breakout year and gave us maybe the season’s best dunk, but the Magic are ultimately still a middling East playoff team rather than a real contender.
I still like the Lakers to have the most long-term hope out of this group, strictly because they have the best player in Luka Doncic. It just feels like there’s so much more work that needs to be done to fully optimize the roster for Luka’s talents (and deficiencies) that they’re a year away, at least. I also want to shout-out Raptors rookie Collin Murray-Boyles in this section, who has looked outstanding lately as a small ball five. Read my big pre-draft feature on Murray-Boyles here.
Puncher’s chance at the championship
8. Boston Celtics
7. Houston Rockets
6. New York Knicks
5. Detroit Pistons
Someone has to win the East, and the conference’s three best teams find themselves in the second tier of the league title race. The Knicks looked like the obvious favorite to reach the NBA Finals after their NBA Cup win, but they’ve folded like a chair ever since they disrespected the Cup by refusing to hang a banner. New York’s two best players are still horrible defensively and that complicates any run through the bracket. The Pistons have been an amazing story and should be built to last as an East contender, but it feels like they’re one move away from a Finals run even in a weak conference. Detroit’s defense is fantastic, but their offense is still outside of the top-10 and could face a whole new set of problems in the playoffs. I think the Pistons need another ball handler and a front court shooter before they’re Finals-bound, but it would be hard to blame them for slow-rolling it with such a young team in a wide open conference. I’m suddenly fascinated by the Celtics’ Finals chances with Jayson Tatum potentially returning. I’ve thought a Tatum return was a terrible idea all season, but at this point it’s clear he’s determined to come back, and the Celtics are way ahead of where they should have been entering this season. If Tatum somehow hits the ground running, Boston probably has the most balance of any East contender.
I would be very tempted to pick the Celtics in a playoff series over both the Pistons and Knicks at this point, but that’s mostly pending how Tatum looks if and when he returns. I had Boston at No. 16 in my preseason rankings, and really thought they would be in the lottery mix in a great draft. There’s no need to tank when you already have a wagon, and the Celtics really might be there. For now, I’ll give the Pistons the slight edge in the East because I trust their offense slightly more than I trust the Knicks’ defense.
True championship contenders
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. San Antonio Spurs
2. Denver Nuggets
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
I framed this season as “the Thunder vs. the field” in my initial season power rankings and it still feels that way … only now the field might have the upper hand. OKC started 24-1, but they’ve shown some signs of vulnerability since then, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being unable to keep up his sky-high free throw rate, Jalen Williams’ scoring efficiency plummeting after his wrist injury, and the team-wide three-point shooting dropping off significantly. The Thunder’s biggest challenger has felt like the Nuggets since the summer, and I’m still sticking with it. Nikola Jokic’s injury killed his chances at a fourth MVP, but it did allow the Nuggets to let Jamal Murray show what he can do with more creation reps, and give a bigger role to suddenly surging young wing Peyton Watson. A Thunder-Nuggets playoff rematch would be absolute cinema, but don’t discount San Antonio and Minnesota, either.
The Spurs have beaten OKC three times this season. Victor Wembanyama is a problem without a solution, and not even a top-3 center like Chet Holmgren can slow him down. I’m not sure the Spurs’ young guards are really ready for prime-time yet, and rookie No. 2 pick Dylan Harper has been struggling in particular over the last month. The Timberwolves might feel like a surprising pick for No. 4, but ultimately I feel like they’re a more complete team than the Knicks, Pistons, and Rockets with a better lead superstar. Anthony Edwards keeps taking his game to new levels, and right now it feels like he can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. The Wolves have been to the conference finals the last two years, and if they can add one more piece at the deadline, this team can go even further. For now, the championship still goes through OKC with Jokic looming as their biggest challenger.
The Dallas Mavericks’ rookie star and number one overall pick Cooper Flagg just played the 41st game of his young career on Monday against the New York Knicks. His inaugural season has been a little interesting. Head coach Jason Kidd experimented with Flagg at point guard to open the season, a tough situation for any young player. The Mavericks’ odd lineups made it even tougher for the first year forward.
Kidd eventually pivoted away from that experiment and put Flagg at the forward spot, and things improved drastically. Flagg won Western Conference rookie of the month in both November and December, and looks to be in a tight race with Kon Knueppel for Rookie of the Year.
With half of his first season in the books, I wanted to look back at the last ten years of number one overall picks and see how Flagg compares. I compiled each number one pick’s basic counting stats—field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and 3-pointers made. Slash stats are points/rebounds/assists per game. All stats are through a player’s first 41 games of their career, regardless of whether those first 41 games came in their rookie year or in later seasons.
Flagg didn’t land into the perfect situation. The Mavericks are still reeling from the Luka Doncic trade, left in an odd purgatory. The roster is built poorly, expensive, yet far from being a contender for much of anything besides the play-in tournament. Worse still, the best player on that awkwardly fit roster, Anthony Davis, is consistently injured. Yet the Mavericks haven’t made any moves toward rebuilding the team around Flagg.
Head coach Jason Kidd went full mad scientist and experimented with Flagg at point guard early in the season. With Davis in and out of the lineup, there’s been no consistent rotation. Trade rumors and the detritus from the Doncic trade still linger over the franchise.
Flagg’s first 41 games in the NBA haven’t been ideal. But he’s put up numbers just as good or better than several of the number one overall picks listed below.
Towns was a good scorer the first half of his rookie season, but really stood out on defense. He’s one of the better rebounders on this list, and is second only to Victor Wembanyama in blocks.
Flagg edges Towns in scoring and is a better playmaker early on, and has better on ball defense. He’s also a much better shooter (40 3pm through 41 games compared to Towns’ 11) than the self-proclaimed “best shooting big man in NBA history.”
Simmons’ career has derailed to a point where he is now a professional competitive fisherman (no really, he is), so it’s easy to forget what a stat-stuffing phenom he was early on. Simmons did a little of everything on the basketball court, except shoot 3’s.
The Sixers had a more coherent vision for their team when Simmons was drafted than the Mavericks currently do with Flagg on board. Simmons also missed his first season in the league, giving him a full calendar year of development that Flagg hasn’t had.
Fultz didn’t get to his 41st career game until his third season in the league. Even with the extra time in the NBA to develop, his stats are unremarkable. Due to all his injuries and issues with his jump shot, it’s impressive that Fultz has been able to carve out a career that’s going on eight years in the league. It speaks to his mental toughness, despite whatever went wrong early on his career.
Needless to say, Flagg definitively had a better first half-year than Fultz.
Ayton was a good scorer the first half of his rookie season, but didn’t do much else. For a big man, his rebounding and block numbers are low. On the other hand, 2.2 assists per game is pretty good for a rookie center. Ayton’s stats through 41 games as a rookie are decent, but considering who was drafted after him (remember Luka Doncic?), you’d probably want more out of your number one pick.
Flagg has been asked to do more than Ayton was in his rookie year, and the play on the court, as well as the stats, shows it.
Williamson didn’t get to his 41st game until his second season, but unlike Fultz, he took advantage of that extra development time. He’s the highest scorer on this list, and looked unstoppable with the ball in his hands those first few years. When he was healthy, of course. Williamson didn’t do a lot, else, however, with low numbers in every other category.
It’s a question that can spark some debate—would you rather have an electric scorer like Williamson, or a better all-around player like Flagg?
Flagg has similar numbers to Edwards, which should be encouraging to Mavericks fans. Obviously they have different games, but a half-season of numbers similar to a multi-time all-star and All-NBA player is what you like to see.
Cunningham grinded out a messy situation as a rookie and put up some solid stats. His assist numbers are low for a point guard, but remember, the Detroit Pistons had absolutely no one to hit shots at that point. He’s second only to Simmons in steals on this list.
There’s some comparison here to Flagg’s rookie year. The Piston’s poorly built roster and a front office in flux sounds familiar to Mavericks fans. Hopefully things turn around for Dallas and Flagg like they did for Detroit and Cunningham.
Banchero showed flashes of greatness early, and as is tradition in Orlando, without any shooting to space the floor for him. That’s tough for a rookie. Banchero took a leap in his sophomore year, making his first all-star game. He’s failed to build on that second-year bump, however, and hasn’t upped his game since.
Banchero’s first 41 games are a pretty good comp for Flagg. Hopefully the Mavericks rookie can level up the same way Banchero did next year.
Wembanyama is the third leading scorer on this list. When you add in the tremendous amount of rebounds and blocks, along with the surprising number of assists, it’s easy to see why the Spurs’ phenom is considered an alien. If Wembanyama can stay healthy, he’ll be a force in the West for years.
Flagg beats out Wembanyama in assists and 3-pointers, but I give Wemby the edge here. He’s just too dynamic on both sides of the ball in those first 41 games.
Risacher’s first season was not what you want to see out of a number one overall pick. Only Fultz had worse counting stats, and as mentioned above, Fultz’s first few seasons were a disaster. But Fultz has overcome all his early issues and carved out a decent career in the NBA. Maybe Risacher can do the same.
Flagg easily surpassed Risacher’s production, but as we’ve seen above, every rookie’s situation needs to be taken into context. Risacher can still turn into a good rotation player.
The shortstop is sometimes referred to as “captain of the infield,” and filling that role in a starting big-league lineup is a huge responsibility. There’s an added layer of pressure when assuming the role of New York Yankees Shortstop, following the career of our own Captain, the legendary Hall-of-Famer Derek Jeter. For the past few years, that responsibility has fallen on Anthony Volpe, the former top prospect who was deemed by many to be a storybook successor to Jeter due to his own lifelong Yankee fandom and a photograph he took with The Captain as a little boy.
As great a story as that would be, Volpe is entering his fourth season as the starting shortstop and has never been able to produce enough offensively to be considered a franchise cornerstone. His wRC+ over those three years (83, 87, 83) has been consistently underwhelming, and his defense suffered major regression last season as well following a strong 2024 with the glove. The Yankees have more star potential in their farm system at shortstop than any other position, so 2026 will be a make-or-break year for Volpe.
The Yankees acquired José Caballero from the Rays at the trade deadline in 2025, and he provided an immediate boost during the final two months of the season in the field, on the basepaths, and even at the plate. The team also signed veteran Paul DeJong in free agency. DeJong is another glove-first shortstop who hasn’t posted an above-average season offensively since 2019 and is unlikely to play a major role as a Yankee, but he could realistically make the Opening Day roster while Volpe recovers from shoulder surgery. Amed Rosario, who will likely make most of his appearances at second and third base or in the outfield against left-handed pitching, can also fill in in a pinch at short.
Behind all this major-league depth, there are a number of exciting young shortstops in the minor leagues looking to keep the momentum alive or break out in 2026. Here are the players working their way through the organization at short.
Projected to start the year in Triple-A are three shortstops with modest big-league experience the Yankees have acquired at some point over the last calendar year: Braden Shewmake, Zack Short, and Jonathan Ornelas. Shewmake is entering his age-28 season with just 31 MLB games on his resume, and he’s never been a reliable option at the plate in his career. He played 85 games with the RailRiders in 2025 and slashed .244/.318/.362 with four home runs. Short spent 2021-23 with the Tigers, bounced between the Red Sox, Braves, and Mets in 2024, and was an Astro in 2025. He has 243 games played in his career and has been a below-average option on both sides of the ball. The same can be said for Ornelas, who spent most of his 32 career games with the Rangers and has yet to homer or steal a base in 58 plate appearances.
The Yankees’ top prospect, George Lombard Jr, should take over the starting shortstop role in Triple-A at some point in 2026, but will most likely begin the season where he left off, in Double-A with the Somerset Patriots. The Yankees drafted Lombard in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft, and he quickly ascended to the top of the farm system thanks to his defensive upside, raw power, and advanced plate discipline. He obliterated High-A pitching in 24 games to start the 2025 season before earning a promotion to Somerset, where he underwent an adjustment period but finished strong. Lombard will not turn 21 until early June, at which point he may be with the Triple-A team. A 2026 MLB debut is probably not in the cards for Lombard, but he is Volpe’s most direct competition long-term for the starting role. His upside is through the roof.
Directly behind Lombard on the depth chart are three players from the Yankees’ most recent draft class who will either be in High-A or Low-A to begin 2026: Dax Kilby, Kaeden Kent, and Core Jackson. Kilby was the team’s first-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, and looks to be on a similar trajectory to Lombard as he’s already a consensus top-five player in the farm system. He was drafted out of high school and went directly to Low-A, where he slashed .353/.457/.441 with 16 stolen bases and a 159 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances. Kilby turned 19 in November, and his batted-ball metrics, plate discipline, and power-speed blend indicate star potential. He and Lombard could easily be the team’s two most enticing prospects by midseason.
Kent and Jackson were the Yankees’ third- and fifth-round picks from the same draft class. Kent (the son of recently elected Hall of Famer Jeff Kent) is a well-rounded player with slightly above-average tools across the board. His big-league debut in High-A was underwhelming through 25 games, but the sample size is small enough that it can be considered a footnote on a promising, high-floor profile. Jackson is in the same boat, as he hit .363 and .364 in his last two seasons at Mississippi but also struggled through a subpar 25-game sample with Hudson Valley to begin his big-league career. Both players will look to right the ship in 2026.
Also in the mix for at-bats around these levels is Roderick Arias, who once headlined the team’s international free-agent class in 2022 but has regressed mightily since then. Arias has spent the last two seasons with Low-A Tampa, and last year he slashed .208/.325/.315 with a 88 wRC+. Barring a major and immediate turnaround, it is difficult to be excited about Arias as a future big-leaguer at this point in his career.
The two main rookie ball shortstops to be aware of are Mani Cedeno and Stiven Marinez. Cedeno signed as part of last year’s international free-agent class, and is considered a promising young prospect due to his smooth right-handed swing and advanced plate approach. However, he struggled in his first season of rookie ball with a 35.7% strikeout rate in the Dominican Summer League. While this is certainly a red flag, Cedeno is still just 17-years-old and has time to turn it around. Marinez, who is a year older than Cedeno, has a similar offensive profile but found more success in the DSL in 2025. He posted a 116 wRC+ in 47 games with 22 stolen bases, and speed is considered one of his defining traits. Both players will need to develop physically before reaching their full game-power potential, but that’s to be expected at this point in their careers.
Shortstop is a deeply competitive position within the Yankees organization entering 2026. Those hoping for a Year 3 breakout from Volpe were sorely disappointed, but he’ll have at least one more opportunity to retain his role moving forward after recovering from shoulder surgery. If he’s unable to ever reach his full potential, the Yankees will hopefully be able to look to Lombard and Kilby as long-term options. The duo of first-round draft picks will look to continue developing into future stars this season, and we should hear their names a lot more as their careers continue to play out.
On Tuesday, Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones were elected by the Baseball Writers of America Association as the two latest inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Those of you who have paid some attention know that I’m a Hall junkie, so I thought it would be fun to take a look to the future, to see who is in a good position from this year’s results and who will be joining the ballot next year; we’ll also see if there are any former Brewers coming up for consideration anytime soon.
Who’s in a good position after this year’s results?
Next year’s Hall of Fame ballot will be a really interesting one. There’s one strong newcomer (see below) but there are no slam-dunk first-ballot choices like we saw with Ichiro Suzuki last year, and there are no players coming back to the ballot who just missed—both Beltrán and Jones were over 65% last year and needed to make only small jumps in support to make it.
We aren’t going to see that with returning players next year, and in fact, it’s definitely possible that no returning players get elected.
After Beltrán and Jones, the next highest vote-getter on Tuesday was the former Phillies second baseman Chase Utley at 59%. That’s a big jump for Utley, who got just 39.8% of the vote the year before, but he’d need another leap of almost 20% to make it in next year. It’s not inconceivable: as we saw with the selections of Ichiro, Billy Wagner, and CC Sabathia a year ago and no super-strong first-ballot candidates this year, others will tend to soak up votes from writers who now turn their focus elsewhere.
This could get Utley close. His case is a bit non-traditional—he finished his career with just 1,885 hits and 259 homers, he never won a Gold Glove, and he never finished higher than seventh in MVP voting. 20 years ago, he’d have no chance. But the analytics that have become the most popular tools to evaluate players suggest that we were missing something with Utley, and his WAR-based case does not just make him a borderline candidate; if you believe the WAR numbers, he’s a pretty ironclad Hall of Famer. Not everyone believes those numbers, which is why Utley is still 16 percentage points short after his third appearance on the ballot.
There are a couple of other interesting returning cases: Andy Pettitte, a staple of the late-90s Yankees dynasty and one of the most prolific postseason pitchers of all time, also made a big jump—even bigger than Utley’s, from 27.9% to 48.5%. Pettitte is also reaching the end of his time on the ballot; he’ll have two more chances before his eligibility expires. Pettitte’s case is complicated by his connection to performance-enhancing drugs, a connection which is viewed as far less egregious than some of his contemporaries but is, nonetheless, an issue for many voters.
The other big mover this year was Félix Hernández, who improved by 26.1 percentage points from year one to year two (the largest single-year gain under the modern voting system, according to Ryan Thibodaux, who runs the Hall of Fame tracker) and, at 46.1% after two ballots, is in excellent position. Hernández’s counting stats are far lower than the traditional Hall of Fame starting pitcher, but it looks like he may be the test case for what Hall voters will have to start looking for in an era when starting pitchers do not play the same way as they used to.
Other returners include Alex Rodríguez (who topped 40% this year on his 5th ballot but probably has a hard cap on the number of voters who will vote for him), Bobby Abreu (who made a modest leap to above 30% but is running out of time), Jimmy Rollins (the counting stats support him over his teammate, Utley, but the advanced stats do not), Dustin Pedroia, Cole Hamels, Mark Buehrle, David Wright, Omar Vizquel, Francisco Rodríguez, and Torii Hunter. Vizquel, who got 18.4% on his ninth ballot, will be back for the 10th and final time next winter. The one first-ballot player who will make a second ballot is Hamels, who received 23.8% of the votes on his first ballot. That’s an uphill climb, but it’s better than Hernández did on his first try.
Who’s new to the ballot?
The next big question is who the new players are. This group is headlined by a player who I think has a strong chance at becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer but has a tricky case: Buster Posey. Posey, from a quality perspective, certainly played at a Hall of Fame level: he won an MVP in 2012, something only two other catchers have done since the 1970s (Iván Rodríguez in 1999 and Joe Mauer in 2009), and by rate stats had one of the best careers of any catcher, ever. FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which includes a player’s pitch framing prowess, is especially fond of Posey.
But Posey had a short career. He played only 1,371 games (that’s almost 150 fewer than Pedroia and over 200 fewer than Wright, both great players who we think of as having careers that were “too short”), and in terms of counting stats, finished with just 1,500 hits and 158 home runs. Even at catcher, where physical demands tend to limit the number of games played per season and shorten careers, that’s low; that’s fewer hits than Thurman Munson, another catcher who some feel played at a Hall of Fame level but isn’t there because his career was cut short when he died in a plane crash not long after turning 32.
Posey’s case will be fascinating. I think the lack of great catchers, historically, will probably work to his advantage, and I think he’ll be recognized for what he was, which was—from a pure peak perspective—probably the best catcher of the 21st century (though Joe Mauer and Cal Raleigh fans will argue, and I’m sure Yadier Molina fans would argue too, though Molina’s case is more about longevity than peak prowess).
There is really only one other new name on the ballot next season who might garner enough support to make it to a second year, and that’s pitcher Jon Lester. Lester probably didn’t do enough to get real Hall support—he has just 43.4 bWAR for his career—but he won 200 games, a rarity in modern times, struck out almost 2,500 batters, had three top-four Cy Young finishes, and was a postseason hero who won an NLCS MVP and three World Series. That should be enough of a resumé to get him to the 5% needed for a second showing.
Other interesting but not exactly compelling first-year players include Brett Gardner, who won a World Series, was one of the best defensive corner outfielders of all time, and was about a league-average hitter; Ryan Zimmerman, one of the great heroes of the Washington Nationals franchise; and Kyle Seager, who has no shot at all at making the Hall of Fame but was a better player than people remember.
Are there any former Brewers debuting on next year’s ballot?
We will not know who the new players on the ballot will be until it’s announced late next fall, but we can make a few guesses at what former Brewers could join Francisco Rodríguez in representing the franchise.
One very notable former Brewer shouldget a spot on next year’s ballot: Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy, who is the best catcher in Brewers history (though William Contreras is coming for that crown), had a 12-year career that included a couple of All-Star games and a fourth-place MVP finish in 2014, the best season ever by a Brewers catcher. Lucroy was also one of the first players to get extra shine because of the new ways in which pitch framing was being measured, and FanGraphs’ version of WAR viewed him as a legitimate star, with four straight seasons with at least 5.6 WAR. Lucroy’s 17.7 career bWAR is nothing particularly special, but his 35.2 fWAR ranks 38th all time among catchers in that database.
The next former Brewer who should get a spot on this ballot was only in Milwaukee briefly, and that’s reliever Joakim Soria. From 2007-2010, Soria was one of the best relievers in baseball. A lost season in 2012 derailed him a bit but he continued to have solid seasons into the mid 2010s, and in 2018 the first-place Brewers acquired him from the White Sox at the trade deadline to bolster their bullpen for the stretch run (Milwaukee sent Wilber Pérez and former first-round pick Kodi Medeiros to Chicago; neither ever made the majors). Soria pitched 26 times for the Brewers in the regular season and suffered some bad luck (a 2.93 FIP but 4.09 ERA) but had a difficult postseason. He had three scoreless outings (including a win and a hold) in the divisional round against the Rockies, but he gave up multiple earned runs twice in four outings in the NLCS against the Dodgers. Soria became a free agent after the season and left for Oakland, and his brief Brewers career was over. In all, Soria amassed 229 saves and had a 3.11 ERA (137 ERA+) and 3.12 FIP in 763 innings pitched.
The last guess is more borderline, and that’s that Wisconsin native and former Brewer—for all of 5 2/3 innings—Jordan Zimmermann will get an honorary spot. Zimmermann pitched 1,614 innings across 13 years, almost entirely for the Nationals and Tigers, and he had a respectable career that saw him make back-to-back All-Star Games and seventh- and fifth-place Cy Young finishes in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Zimmermann, who was from Auburndale, Wisconsin and pitched at UW-Stevens Point, made his last two big-league appearances for the Brewers in 2021.
None of these players has any shot at making the Hall of Fame, and I’d be surprised if any got more than a token vote or two, but it’s still fun to see their names.
Brewers fans will need to wait until 2029 before anyone who spent time in Milwaukee will actually make some noise on the ballot. That’s the year when Zack Greinke should become a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But he’s not the only former Brewer with a good chance of getting a little support: Brewers Legend Josh Donaldson also debuts that year. (Let’s go out for a beverage and I’ll tell you why Donaldson should get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame.)
Bob Nightengale wonders why admitted PED-user Andy Pettitte moved towards induction when other tainted candidates have not. He also says if Pettitte gets into Cooperstown, there is no excuse to not elect the many others connected to PED use. He thinks this is a bad thing.
Sad news as former White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood has passed away at 84. Wood put up some insane innings totals from 1971 to 1975—insane even for the early seventies. I also wonder if the knuckleball isn’t dying out. There aren’t many living knuckleballers left. But our condolences go out to Wood’s family, friends and former teammates. Also to the knuckleball.
The Colorado Rockies have been busy lately with the signing of free agent pitcher Michael Lorenzen and the reported signing of utilityman Willi Castro. It’s been clear that the Rockies are hoping to build a team in 2026 that affords them the ability to let the young players of 2025 get more time to develop properly. It’s been about gaining depth with players that can allow them to rebuild a bit more smoothly this season.
The starting rotation remains the main area of focus as the team is interested in adding another starting pitcher in the same vein as Lorenzen. While it’s very unlikely they go after the high-profile, there are still several available free agents that could still be helpful in 2026. Particularly, there is one familiar face that could be an interesting flyer if both sides are willing to take a chance.
Left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson has settled into a fairly solid arm since his days with the Rockies. The Rockies’ 20th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Anderson turned in three solid years with the organization before an injury took him down in 2019. He became a journeyman over the next few years, once he was healthy, spending stints with the San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Los Angeles Angels. In his career, Anderson, now 36, has posted 17.3 WAR per Baseball Reference and owns a career 4.30 ERA through 231 games, including 223 starts, and was an All-Star in 2022 and 2024.
So, why could he be a fit for the new look Rockies?
Well, one of the first things that sticks out is that he is a relatively reliable innings eater. Now, he isn’t going to go out and deal 200 innings, but he can regularly take the ball every five days and throw five or six innings a game. Since 2018, he has worked at least 130 innings in each full season and made at least 25 starts. His career high of 179 1/3 innings came just recently in 2024. In 2025, Anderson made 26 starts and failed to complete at least five innings just seven times. Of those seven starts, he failed to record at least one out in the fifth inning just twice. For a backend veteran starter, that’s the kind of length the Rockies need in 2026 that they have been lacking for several years now.
Giving length is a useful skill, but what about the run prevention? Obviously, Anderson isn’t going to go out and throw up zeros night after night. He only had four scoreless outings on the year, but for a backend starter, that’s not necessarily required. The job of any starter, particularly one in Colorado, is to mitigate damage and keep things from spiraling out of control. Anderson has continued to do that in his career, and last season, he allowed more than four runs in a start just three times. He gave the Angels plenty of chances to win games, but bullpen failures and a rough offense just couldn’t offset some nights.
Still, Anderson can be effective on the mound and give you a chance to win a game if the offense can keep pace with the opposition. But the inner workings of Anderson’s game should still be intriguing for the new age Rockies.
Per Statcast, he finished with the 16th-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball last season. He remains around league average in Whiff rate with 25%, but places in the 68th percentile in Chase rate with 29.8%. He manages to limit hard contact and gets a decent number of ground balls and fly balls. He manages to do this with an arsenal of pitches to work with.
Anderson is the definition of a soft-tossing lefty. Over his 10-year career, nothing has really changed in terms of the overall velocity of usage of his pitches. The fastball roughly sits at 89 mph while he deploys an assortment of offspeed and breaking pitches. His changeup has been a particularly solid offering against right-handed batters. In all, he has roughly six pitches at his disposal that he could tinker with and deploy that could give the new pitching leadership more info to chew on.
There is a sense of familiarity that could also help the combined collaborative effort the Rockies are fostering now. Anderson has the reputation of being a studious pitcher, constantly taking notes and reflecting on his outings. He is a student of the game, a professor continuously trying to hone his craft and perfect his approach. That type of mentality would play well with the Rockies, as he can impart some knowledge not just from his time in other organizations, but also from Colorado. In 46 appearances at Coors Field, a total of 258 2/3 innings, Anderson sports a 4.04 ERA.
Now, of course, it’s worth pointing out some of the concerns. One of the main ones is that Anderson is not a pitcher who will strike out batters. With a career 19.4% strikeout rate, Anderson has at least been consistent in that department, but 2025 saw the lowest rate of his career at 17.4%. His career walk rate does come in under league average, but over the last three years with the Angels, he had at least a 9.5% walk rate.
Additionally, home runs have always been a concern for Anderson. In 2018, he led the league with 30 home runs allowed, but to his credit, he has reigned things in a bit and been more consistent, but last season some a spike in home runs. Coincidentally, his fly ball rates have also increased over the last few years.
It’s always going to be risky picking up a player who is pitch-to-contact, especially at Coors Field. Anderson would need to truly perfect his execution and utilize his defense accordingly. But that’s the type of problem that the new regime is eager to figure out and Anderson could easily fit the mold of what they are trying to do.
The biggest question would concern the price. Per Spotrac, Anderson’s market value is projected to be roughly $6.97 million. That’s not an awful amount for a one-year deal that he might have to settle for, but it’s unclear how much more the Rockies are willing to spend on the big league roster. Still, he’s an affordable free agent that could be worth serious consideration at that price.
Ultimately, the Rockies need another arm. I like Anderson because he is familiar, has carved out a nice career, is relatively cheap, and would add another lefty to the rotation to re-join Kyle Freeland. He’s older and wiser and could be a unique fit to help mentor the young pitchers on the team while bringing back some of the magic of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 2026 is all about throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks, and Anderson is worthy of joining that discussion.
We’ve heard a lot about how the organization is excited about the new additions to the coaching staff for pitching, but we haven’t heard as much from the players. Well, count Kyle Freeland as someone who bought in and is extremely excited about the new direction for the Rockies. Thomas Harding caught up with Freeland to discuss his thoughts on the team’s new front office.
When the Rockies made the signing of Michael Lorenzen official, Bradley Blalock was designated for assignment. After a few days, the team was able to swing a deal with the Miami Marlins, acquiring minor league pitcher Jake Brooks in return for Blalock.
This week, Evan Lang and I discuss the finalization of Lorenzen’s signing, what Willi Castro’s signing signals for the Rockies and what other moves they may still need to make, while also talking about the return of Nolan Arenado to the NL West alongside the Dodgers spending big on Kyle Tucker.
“Nic and I have built a relationship where we’re always bouncing ideas off each other,” Núñez said. “Always trying to keep each other in the loop at what’s going on at every level. Our communication is really good, and we complement each other. And we learn from each other. For us to be able to work together as one unit, it’s exciting.”
Núñez calls Jackson “The Doctor” because of his biomechanical knowledge, and Núñez brings vast playing experience and the ability to connect with young players, especially international signees. Their different backgrounds and perspectives stood out as they led the organization’s instructional league in Arizona last fall, as did the camaraderie and continuity in processes that Núñez, Jackson and Raccuia shared.
Beltrán played for seven teams from 1998 through 2017, collecting 435 home runs and 312 stolen bases while excelling in the postseason, hitting .307/.412/.609 across 65 games. A Rookie of the Year for the Kansas City Royals in 1999, Beltrán won two Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.
Jones won 10 Gold Gloves, patrolling center field for the Atlanta Braves with such aplomb that Willie Mays once called him the best he ever saw at the position. Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Schmidt are the only players besides Jones with 10 Gold Gloves and 400 homers, with Jones bashing 434 for five teams from 1996 through 2012.
Kansas City Royals — Moving in the outfield fences might be their biggest move of the offseason. The Royals traded for outfielder Isaac Collins, rolled the dice on outfielder Lane Thomas, and added some relievers (notably, left-hander Matt Strahm) but they haven’t made anything that qualifies as a splash.
Early in the offseason, on the Kauffman Corner podcast, I made a point that the Royals responsibility last winter likely meant they had to be a little irresponsible this winter to fix the issues that plagued them. I still stand by what I said last year in that I totally understood not wanting to overspend on players who probably weren’t good enough to overspend on, but I also disagreed with it. To their credit, I think they were generally right. Anthony Santander had a terrible first season in Toronto that was marred by injury. Jurickson Profar was suspended for 80 games almost immediately for PED use. And what I heard last year was that the Angels had asked for Carter Jensen for Ward. I think if everything went the way it had, we’d all be frustrated by that trade today with Ward approaching free agency.
Under scouting director Brian Bridges, the Royals leaned into versatile athletes in the 2025 draft. Tulane two-way player Michael Lombardi epitomizes this approach. He worked predominantly as a center fielder and reliever for the Green Wave, but Kansas City will develop him as a right-handed starter. “You’re dealing with an athlete who’s highly competitive,” Bridges said. “A two-way player who wants to concentrate on pitching, with limited mileage on his arm. He’s athletic with feel to pitch.”
Owners still have to determine what salary floor and ceiling they’re comfortable proposing, a discussion that’s expected to be a topic at next month’s regularly scheduled owners meeting. The floor, in particular, could be a contentious issue for smaller-market teams, some of which might stand to make more money on an operational basis in the current system. The value of all 30 franchises would instantly rise if a cap is introduced, however.
It would take at least eight owners of 30 to effectively hold up a labor deal, but when it comes to a cap, internal politics will not be the owners’ biggest hurdle. Players have historically been willing to miss many games to avoid a cap system.
“We just completed one of the greatest seasons in MLB history, with unprecedented fan interest and revenues,” union head Tony Clark said in a statement. “While the free-agent market is far from over, it is gratifying to see players at all levels being rewarded for their incredible accomplishments by those clubs that are trying to win without excuses.”
I am on the ship today, so I can’t get a link from YouTube. Instead, take this baseball and toss it at someone out of love. Shoot them a message, a quick call, or something to let them know you care about them.
The Vancouver Canucks (16-28-5) continue their homestand on Wednesday as they face the Washington Capitals. Vancouver enters this game looking not just to end an 11-game losing streak, but pick up their first win of 2026. As for the Capitals, they have also hit a rough patch of late as they enter Wednesday with a 3-6-1 record in their last 10.
While the Canucks did skate away with a victory the last time these two teams played, it was a costly game for Vancouver. The Canucks sustained multiple injuries, with Teddy Blueger and Filip Chytil yet to return to the lineup since the October 19 matchup. Based on Adam Foote's comments this week, Blueger may be ready to come off IR on Wednesday, which would provide the team a massive boost at center ice.
The big question heading into this game is, will the losing streak finally end? Vancouver has not won a game since December 29, while their last home victory came on December 6. Even though a loss hurts the tank, picking a win in front of the home crowd every once in a while would be appreciated.
Players To Watch:
Filip Hronek:
Filip Hronek has stepped up his game since the Quinn Hughes trade. The 28-year-old played 28:01 on Monday and has already surpassed the 25-assist mark for the third straight season. Hronek has become a leader on the ice for the Canucks and is showing he can be a successful top pair defenceman regardless of who is partner is.
Alex Ovechkin:
Wednesday could be the final time fans get to see Alex Ovechkin play at Rogers Arena. The NHL's all-time leading goal scorer hasn't indicated whether he will play next year or not, but he is an unrestricted free agent after the season. If this is the end of the road for the "Great 8", he has certainly made his presence known in Vancouver, as he has 16 goals and 27 points in 29 career games against the Canucks.
Oct 19, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) chases the puck in front of Vancouver Canucks left wing Evander Kane (91) during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Vancouver Canucks (16–28–5):
Points:
Elias Pettersson: 13–16–29
Filip Hronek: 3–25–28
Jake DeBrusk: 12–10–22
Brock Boeser: 10–12–22
Linus Karlsson: 10-12-22
Goaltenders:
Thatcher Demko: 8–10–1
Kevin Lankinen: 6–14–4
Nikita Tolopilo: 2–3–0
Jiří Patera: 0–1–0
Washington Capitals (24–20–6):
Points:
Tom Wilson: 22-20-42
Alex Ovechkin: 20-22-42
John Carlson: 9-29-38
Dylan Strome: 11-26-37
Jakob Chychrun: 18-18-36
Goaltenders:
Logan Thompson: 17-14-4
Charlie Lindgren: 7-6-2
Game Information:
Start time: 7:00 pm PT
Venue: Rogers Arena
Television: Sportsnet
Radio: Sportsnet 650
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After losing to the Minnesota Wild for the last nine games, the Montreal Canadiens were finally able to put an end to that losing streak by taming their pet peeve. It wasn’t always easy, even against a team that was playing its third game in four nights, but when all was said and done after 60 minutes, the Habs had scored one more goal than the Wild, even if they scored the last one with just 15 seconds left.
For the first time since November 15, Kirby Dach was playing, and while there was some understandable rust, he didn’t look out of place playing alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the first line. He spent almost 17 minutes on the ice despite missing over two months of action.
After mustering just 16 shots in regulation in their dramatic overtime win over the Ottawa Senators, the Canadiens did a lot of shooting at Monday’s practice in Brossard, and it showed. Martin St-Louis’ men had heard the message loud and clear, and they were shooting from left, right, and center throughout the first frame, reaching 15 shots, just one short of their Saturday night output.
Furthermore, they only allowed Minnesota to take two shots in the first 20 minutes, in what was perhaps their most dominant period of the season, even if the scoreboard didn’t make that overly obvious.
Montreal did struggle to get pucks on net at the start of the third frame, though, even though they enjoyed a power play. As the coach mentioned, their power play didn’t give them any momentum tonight, but there will be games like that. After 10 minutes, they had no shots, but once the Wild had equalized, they managed to test Jesper Wallstedt nine times, and the last one was the right one.
It Was A Struggle
If the Canadiens played well both offensively and defensively, Jakub Dobes struggled in net. It’s hard to fault him on the first goal, which came on a Vladimir Tarasenko one-timer on the power play, but the other two goals shouldn’t have gone in.
On the second one, Brock Faber took a shot that wasn’t all that strong from the blueline, and it wasn’t deflected, or at least not by anyone other than Dobes himself, who got some of it with his glove, but not enough, and the puck ended in the net.
It was the third goal that was the most unsettling, however, since the netminder lost his balance without being touched by anyone else, which unsteadied him, and less than 15 seconds later, the puck was in the net. Dobes has never been perfect from a technical standpoint, but if he loses his positioning when it’s not provoked, it won’t end well.
Oftentimes, he doesn’t look in control in the net, just like earlier in the third frame when he was scrambling madly to try to get the puck that was bouncing on the ice in the middle of traffic. He ended up looking like a bear skin in front of a fireplace back in the 1980’s, and while he didn’t have control of the puck, he mercifully got a quick whistle.
Since Jacob Fowler was sent back to the Laval Rocket, neither Dobes nor Samuel Montembeault has been very convincing in net.
Clutch Caufield
Once again, Cole Caufield came up clutch for the Canadiens, scoring his league-leading seventh game-winning goal of the season. There’s no denying that the sniper has talent, but he also has great instinct. Speaking after the game, St. Louis explained:
He takes a shot from there that’s not necessarily his spot, but it’s where the game was asking him to go, based on where everybody else was on the ice. We had a lot of motion […], but you have to have balance inside that motion. Danault was at the net, guys changed spots a lot during that sequence, Suzi ended up on the right, and then Cole came and supported that, to keep us in balance. It doesn’t guarantee he’s going to get it, but when you’re playing balanced, the guy who has the puck has options.
- Martin St-Louis on Caufield
That’s what’s special about Caufield: his ability to read the play and make the right decision. That’s the reason why a guy who many called “too small” can score so many goals in the NHL. Tonight’s lamplighter was his 25th of the season, meaning he’s on pace for 41 on the year.
It truly is surprising that Team USA considered that it didn’t need that kind of goal-scoring ability or that capacity to score when it matters the most.
The Canadiens will be back on the ice in Brossard on Wednesday morning to get ready for Thursday night’s duel with the Buffalo Sabres.
Vibes. They are impossible to quantify, impossible to pin down, but you feel their absence immediately. You feel their presence even faster. Tuesday night had them. The Phoenix Suns, rolling into the City of Brotherly Love for the second game of a back-to-back, walked onto the floor with a pulse. A hum. Something alive.
Why were the vibes humming? Health. Actual, real, honest to basketball health. For the first time all season, everyone was available. No asterisks. No caveats. The full roster. Including Jalen Green, the centerpiece of the Kevin Durant trade, finally upright and ready to roll.
It did not start pretty. The Suns opened the night 0-of-9 from the field, cold, clunky, searching for rhythm. Philadelphia tried to punch, tried to manufacture runs, tried to tilt the floor. Phoenix bent. Phoenix answered. Every surge met with a response. Every wobble met with composure.
The numbers tell part of the story. 16-of-39 from deep, a clean 41%. 20-of-20 at the line. Then there was the bench. 58-28 in favor of Phoenix. Wave after wave. Energy that did not fade. Meanwhile, the 76ers were grinding through their own second night of a back-to-back, short-handed without Joel Embiid or Paul George, asking too much of too few.
This one mattered. Not for style points. For tone. For trajectory. For vibes. The win locks in a road trip where the floor is now .500, sitting at 3-2 with one left to play. The math works. The vibes agree. Sometimes basketball is less about schemes and more about momentum, belief, and bodies being available at the same time.
On this night, the Suns had all three.
Bright Side Baller Season Standings
Collin is now up to 8 Bright Side Baller’s on the year after a hyper-efficient 22-point performance against the Nets. Who woulda thunk it?
Bright Side Baller Nominees
Game 44 against the 76ers. Here are your nominees:
The 2025-26 NBA rookie class is absolutely packed with characters certain to draw intrigue from all corners of the basketball map. Of course, you have your Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, and Kon Knueppel upper-echelon of players who seem poised to one day control the ground they walk upon, but it isn’t challenging or interesting to talk about how excellent Dylan Harper is as a downhill attacker, or how seamless a fit Derik Queen has proved to be in a professional environment. I could harp on about the unexpected 3-point renaissance ushered by Brooklyn’s Egor Demin. I could rave about Cedric Coward and his miraculous journey from basketball limbo to becoming one of the most promising young players in his class.
Those topics have been discussed to death and will continue to be the headlines of their respective memoirs, biopics, documentaries, etc. More studious individuals than I have the patience to dive play-by-play into each of these players’ bodies of work to this point in the year. I’ll leave the in-depth, broad-stroked analysis to those characters.
Here’s what captures my attention: a player whose arrival was preceded by the promise of salvation to an organization in desperate need of a hero. The prize of a team that had gutted itself, tearing its foundation to meager scraps, all in the hopes of acquiring an all-world talent. An individual who carries a tremendous burden of expectation — an expectation both to elevate the ceiling of his team and to ascend to stardom.
The Utah Jazz tanked in 2025. They tanked hard. And after successfully finishing with the fewest wins in the entire association, their great reward arrived via a reverse-order, lottery-finalized draft. That reward was Airious “Ace” Bailey.
Ace has not been the most impressive rookie in his class. He won’t get many votes for Rookie of the Year. He may not even be the go-to guy when Utah is finally prepared to compete for more than just a spot in the playoffs. Ace Bailey is a mystery; one with tremendous promise, but a mystery nonetheless. So, what does Utah have in its bright-eyed rookie forward? Where does he stand among his fellow rookie classmates, and where does his roadmap lead to?
Welcome to the rookie ladder: just as they arrived, each of these newbies has a spot on the totem pole. That order has changed since draft night, and understanding the “why” and the “how” will be critical in projecting future development in the NBA. Keep in mind, of course, this is the rookie landscape through my eyes, meaning it is far from inarguable. I am aware of this fact.
NBA Rookie Ladder, January 2026:
Name, Draft Position, Season Stats:
Cooper Flagg (1) – 18.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 4.1 ast
Kon Knueppel (4) – 19.0 pts, 3.5 ast, 43.5% 3pt
VJ Edgecombe (3) – 15.6 pts, 4.3 ast, 1.5 stl
Dylan Harper (2) – 10.6 pts, 3.5 ast, 3.2 reb
Derik Queen (12) – 12.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 4.3 ast
Egor Demin (8) – 10.4 pts, 3.4 ast, 39.8% 3pt
Cedric Coward (11) – 14.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.9 ast
Ace Bailey (5) – 10.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 0.5 blk
Jeremiah Fears (7) – 13.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.2 ast
Maxime Reynaud (42) – 10.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.2 ast
In the short term, the Ace Bailey experience has been more akin to a teppanyaki-style pyrotechnics display than an all-you-can-eat buffet. There will be pyrotechnics — fire shooting from his fingertips, jaw-dropping displays of skill, the works — but if it’s a sustainable, reliable, and consistent eating experience you’re after, you’d better push your money into the Flagg, Knueppel, Harper eatery.
Me? I love the idea of a Japanese steakhouse, where the meal’s preparation is on full display for all participants, and watching every step, every flash of spectacle (of which there are many, in Ace’s case), and the evolution of what promises to be an incredible result. Ace Bailey is a work in progress; there were many reasons why he slid in the draft from 2nd to 5th. Likewise, there are many reasons to believe that his final product will be well worth the wait.
With respect to Cody Williams, a player who is finally striding in the right direction after a harrowing rookie campaign, Ace Bailey is a far more complete prospect than the Jazz’s highest selection from the season prior. Much more than just a lengthy frame with athletic tendencies, Bailey entered the NBA with elite athleticism and a pro-level diet of shot selection.
He’s already thrown down more than a few dunks this season, with a degree of difficulty and defiance of the laws of physics that make me question his humanity. Just take a look at this flat-footed yam that turned a pivot point into a launch pad.
This Ace Bailey slam is crazy. The combination of size and athleticism needed to pull this off. pic.twitter.com/YaQZk6SKQA
Earlier in the year, a late-game situation was approached with a nothing-to-lose up-and-under reverse two-handed slam that has me exhausted simply trying to describe it. He is aerobatic, he is graceful.
His defensive upside projects incredibly favorable as well, with footspeed to match some of the league’s shiftiest ball-handlers, and the length to erase any perceived offensive advantage in a heartbeat.
In the midst of a league-wide return of the mid-range shot, Ace Bailey feasts on a supply of turnarounds, fallaways, and pull-ups. Eyes wide, grin flashing, Ace proudly declared that “[If] nobody wants to take [a mid-range], I’ll take it. I love it!” in an interview with Kevin O’Connor (am I allowed to reference O’Connor on a Utah Jazz platform anymore?).
And with a surprising amount of patience and maturity for a player with a one as the first digit of his age, Ace is deliberate, smooth, and skilled at getting his high-release jumper off with minimal interference.
Don’t be alarmed to see Ace falling below his draft order on the rookie ladder; everything is still moving according to plan. If you feel antsy while awaiting his development, exercise a bit of patience. If the early positives are any indicator, Bailey projects to be a highly dangerous weapon in Will Hardy’s arsenal.
Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Tokyo, Japan. He has covered the NBA and College Sports since 2024.
A season for the Hawks that started with so much promise has quickly turned into a nightmare. I wrote last month that the season was close to being flushed down the drain for good if they didn’t improve on three key areas.
They didn’t improve on any of those three key areas.
Let’s list off all of the things that have gone horribly wrong this year:
Regardless of how you felt about Young, it was always going to be an extremely difficult pivot midseason when so many resources over so many years had gone into building around him.
One extra note: the centerpiece of the Young trade to Washington is now public enemy number one to the fanbase after his last second gaff and general ball dominance. So, even the pivot has been fruitless.
Kristaps Porzingis was confident preseason that his bout with post-viral syndrome/postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) was in the rearview mirror. It was not. Most recently, he’s been out nursing an injury to his Achilles. To date, Porzingis has only played 413 total minutes and 17 games out of a possible 45. The all-in gamble on his health came up bust.
Jalen Johnson’s growing list of deficiencies on defense have been magnified with the absence of Porzingis. Has the tradeoff between his offensive growth for defensive regression been worth it? That’s at least a valid question to ask for what this team needs.
As an undersized 5, Onyeka Okongwu had begun to play the 4 part of the time — especially when sharing the floor with Porzingis. The plan was to make him a flexible third big man, splitting his time between both frontcourt positions while coming off the bench to limit his minutes.
He’s a genuinely impactful defender now, but Zaccharie Risacher didn’t take the step forward offensively all of us had hoped. Not even close, in fact.
Dyson Daniels, now the team’s starting point guard who has admittedly come on offensively, hasn’t made a three since December 14.
With the exception of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, you can point to every one of the Hawks’ top eight or nine players and argue that their impact has been levels below what was expected of them.
*Sidenote: often teams prioritize one of those areas over the other, but you really shouldn’t be bad at both. Either send bodies to the glass or get back on defense. The Hawks, worryingly, do neither.
The heavy minutes load on Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu, and Alexander-Walker is clearly showing a major toll. They’ve been blown out at home more times than I can count, including a calamitous 43-point deficit at one point in a 26-point beatdown at the hands of the Boston Celtics last week.
Even the close games aren’t going their way. The team has been dreadful in clutch situations since the start of December.
The Hawks started the season 8-4 in clutch games (any game within 5 points with <5 mins remaining).
They've gone 1-8 since. They're the only team in the NBA with one (or fewer) clutch win since the start of December.
Finally, as of Tuesday afternoon, the team is just barely clinging onto 10th in the standings, with the 11th and 12th place Bucks and Hornets respectively vying for that final Play-In Tournament.
From visions of a top-four conference finish to out of the postseason entirely would be a humiliating end to a season of collapses.
The team is a mess, and any hopes of being the next Indiana Pacers are over.
The team was projected to win 46.5 games (per basketball-reference), and they’re on pace to win a full 10 games fewer than that (roughly 36.5). Yes, the Hawks still have 37 games remaining, the Eastern Conference isn’t exactly a juggernaut, and the schedule gets easier after the All-Star break, but it will be way too little too late.
I do think they’ll make the Play-In Tournament at least and have a puncher’s chance at entering the playoff bracket.
But for what? A sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons? Yawn.
So now where do they go? For me, here are the biggest areas to monitor going forward:
Finding a franchise center
The trade deadline is on the near horizon. I have to imagine the decision makers have been working the phones heavy in wake of the wildly disappointing performance of the team.
We’ve heard the Hawks linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is now reportedly off the market), Anthony Davis (likely not happening with him nursing yet another injury), and other bigs who can fill in the huge physicality and rebounding gaps in the team.
This is almost certainly the end of the road for the persistently unavailable free-agent-to-be Kristaps Porzingis. I don’t foresee any team offering him a multi-year contract given his injury and illness recurrences — especially not the Hawks.
And Okongwu’s overburdening was discussed above — I still see him as a quality backup big on a friendly contract but nothing more.
Atlanta needs to find a dependable center who can anchor the defense, clear out space for rebounds, and provide a level a physicality the team needs (let’s just move past the fact that Atlanta had a real opportunity to do so two drafts ago).
Could they use their projected cap space this summer to sign Isaiah Hartenstein, likely the best center in the upcoming free agent market? That’s one thought. Or they could target someone else by trade.
But this, to me, is the most pressing issue given that the Hawks are headed for a ninth straight bottom half of the league finish in defensive rating.
Draft acquisitions
The one thing that has gone right has been the equally ugly collapse of the Milwaukee Bucks in addition to the (somewhat predictable) dreadful performance of the New Orleans Pelicans. More than halfway through the season, the best of both superpick acquired at the draft last year looks even better now than then.
It’s unlikely the Pelicans will finish with the worst record in the NBA given the many tanking teams just ahead of them and their own lack of incentive to tank. But all it takes is a few lucky ping pong bounces to possibly transform this franchise with a premium talent.
With the Cleveland Cavaliers also underperforming relative to preseason expectations, the pick swap they picked up through the De’Andre Hunter trade could land them a first-round pick in the teens.
It’s debatable that the Hawks focused a bit too much on youth over experience this past offseason, but with these two picks in a strong draft, it’s still a very viable avenue to add cheap — and possibly high-end — talent.
Assess whether Snyder is the right person for the job
Here is the elephant in the room.
Let me start by saying coaching in the NBA is an incredibly difficult job, and that so much of the position happens behind closed doors. You need to manage rich and famous NBA player egos, and navigate the politics of communicating with the media, one’s front office, and one’s ownership group.
Also, of course, comes the Xs and Os portion of the job. Implementing your system of basketball tactics and strategies — all that good stuff.
Putting a good product on the floor is clearly the most visible part of it all. And I’m not here to judge head coach Quin Snyder on anything but what the eyes can see.
One can argue this season’s roster isn’t fit to succeed (although bettors and oddsmakers certainly thought so preseason). One can are argue injuries have derailed the initial plan (although that hasn’t stopped the Celtics, Nuggets, and others from overcoming major injuries).
One can no longer argue that Snyder has elevated the individual play of players — as detailed above — or the team writ large.
Wins and losses are inarguable, and when a team’s record underwhelms relative to expectations, the coach tends to get the hook. This is just a universal truth throughout the history of the NBA.
Lloyd Pierce fell fate to that very scenario. Once the goalposts moved from player development to contention, his 14-20 record halfway through the 2020-21 season sealed his fate. Snyder’s 20-25 record to date looks eerily similar to Pierce’s record then and Nate McMillan’s 29-30 record in 2022-23 (although both previous coaches had some level of fallout in the locker room).
Maybe it’s best to wait until the end of the season for the higher ups to assess this situation. And if a different direction is desired, there will likely be a great availability of candidates to replace him in the offseason.
But a real, honest assessment needs to be made before tipping off next season lest we end up in the same place this time next year.
DETROIT — Jaylen Brown was asleep when the news first broke out: for the first time in his 10-year NBA career, he was selected as an All-Star starter.
Monday’s primetime game between the Celtics and the Pistons was hours away, and Brown was taking his usual midday nap. By the time he awoke, his phone was filled with congratulatory texts from family and friends.
“I think that’s who it matters most for — my support group,” Brown said. “I think it means a lot to them to see me celebrated in that light now.”
Asked Jaylen Brown about being named All-Star starter today:
“I woke up from a nap, and then I had some text messages from loved ones and family, but I think that's what it matters most for, like my support group. I think it means a lot to them to see me celebrated in that… pic.twitter.com/VbAihfC5MF
Among Eastern Conference players, Brown received the most votes from media members, the 3rd-most from NBA players, and the 5th-most from fans. That gave Brown the fifth-most votes among East players, edging out Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell for the final starter spot.
Next month in Los Angeles, he’ll represent the conference alongside Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham.
But Brown played down the personal significance of the accolade, noting he’s always felt he’s been this type of player.
“ I’ve always felt like, regardless of what people may think or whatever, that I’ve been one of the better players in this game,” he said. “Just now, I’ve got an opportunity to show it a little more.”
Jaylen Brown was ranked 1st among media, 3rd among players, and 5th among fans. pic.twitter.com/PHa5pyXcVA
Brown did not feel like being named an All-Star starter was validating.
“I’m a very confident guy,” Brown said. “I don’t allow other people to tell me what my validation is. I always felt like I was better than a lot of these guys.”
Jaylen Brown has benefited from a much greener light this season
This season, Brown has averaged 29.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists — while shooting 48.7% from the field, 36.3% from three, and 79.1% from the line.
He attributes some of his offensive improvements to having a much greener light than previous seasons of his career — particularly in the midrange, where Brown has been among the NBA’s most effective players.
“I was discouraged from taking midrange shots at different points in my career,” he said last week. “I’ve been literally told not to. Now it’s like ‘Jaylen, you can take whatever shot you want.’ I’m like, ‘sure.’ I’ve been shooting as many mid-ranges as I can get up. At different points in my career, that hasn’t been the case.”
Joe Mazzulla praised Brown for his leadership and improved ability to make reads this season.
“Really happy for him — it started in the offseason, just the way he approached it, the professionalism, the work ethic, the commitment to 1) getting healthy, to 2) coming in and setting the tone for the building and working with each guy separately,” Mazzulla said on Monday.
The Celtics are 26-16, good for the East’s second-best record. They also have the third-best net rating in the NBA.
And, Brown feels like they’re just getting started.
“I’ve enjoyed being with this group, I’ve enjoyed playing with the young guys, helping with their learning curve,” Brown said. “It’s been a joy. I’m looking forward to the next part of the season. We still have some work to do.”
