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WHOOPS.

My bad, everyone.

I missed the window to actually get this post up in between the Philadelphia 76ers advancing to the second round to face the New York Knicks on Saturday and Game 1 of that Eastern Conference semifinal series on Monday. I totally had time to do it on Sunday night and Monday morning…. just totally did not realize that the series was starting up that quickly, and here we are.

This is going to be a shorter post than our first round entry in keeping track of the NBA Playoffs through a Marquette magnifying glass. That is due to Oklahoma City eliminating Oso Ighodaro and Phoenix in four games as well as Detroit rallying from down 3-1 to bounce Jamal Cain and Orlando in seven games. We got very close to being able to keep an eye on the Magic, as they had a 20 point lead at halftime of Game 6…. and then they lost by double digits and then lost Game 7 by 20 points.

That leaves us with just one former Marquette player involved in the NBA Playoffs, and as we’ll get to in a second, “involved” is a stretch of a word to use……

Tyler Kolek — New York Knicks

Kolek and New York advanced out of the first round with a 4-2 series win over the Atlanta Hawks. After Atlanta got a 107-106 win in Game 2 and a 109-108 win in Game 3, that series got out of hand in a hurry. New York won the next three games by 16, 29, and 51 points. That Game 6 wasn’t even as close as the 140-89 margin suggests it was as the Knicks were up 61 at one point in the third quarter not to mention it was 40-15 at the end of the first quarter and 83-36 at the half.

As mostly expected, our man Tyler Kolek was not that involved in the series. He appeared in just three of the games for a total of 19 minutes. We can’t help but notice that he played in the three games that the Knicks won by increasingly larger margins, so perhaps head coach Mike Brown should have been giving the former Big East Player of the Year a little bit more run, eh? Kolek averaged 2.7 points and 1.7 assists per game in his limited action, but his series against Philadelphia in the second round is off to a better start. One-for-one in games played, eight points and four assists in 10 minutes, and he got to celebrate the 137-98 win with Timothee Chalamet, who passed on going to the Met Gala with his girlfriend to be at Game 1 at The Garden.

New York was led by Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby in the first round series against Atlanta, with both men averaging at least 21 points per game. Brunson had the team lead in assists, barely beating out Karl-Anthony Towns, 6.2 to 6.0 per game. Towns was the leading rebounder for the Knicks with 11.3 per game to go with his nearly 19 points a night, and it’s kinda weird that a guy that was averaging 19/11/6/2/2 in a playoff series isn’t getting the spotlight.

As mentioned, Kolek’s Knicks are facing Philadelphia in the second round or the conference semifinals if you want to be fancy about it. The 76ers beat Boston in seven games maaaaaaaybe helped along by Jayson Tatum missing Game 7 with a knee injury of some sort…. and maaaaaybe helped along by head coach Joe Mazzulla starting Baylor Scheierman, Luka Garza, and Ron Harper, none of whom scored in a combined 35 minutes of action in a Game 7 that ended up decided by nine points. Weird!

The Sixers are 100% Tyrese Maxey’s team at this point as he averaged 27 points, five rebounds, and over six assists per game against the Celtics. Joel Embiid recovered from his appendectomy to play in the final four games of the series and average 28 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists a game. That’s pretty much vintage Embiid right there, but as always, the question is whether or not the 32 year old will remain available all playoffs long. He hasn’t played 60 games in an NBA season since 2022-23 and has never played in 70 games in a season. He only appeared in 38 this year for the Sixers, so we’ll have to wait and see how this series goes. It certainly seemed like KAT was able to abuse Embiid in an inside-outside game way in Game 1, which is perhaps a bad sign for Philly but a great sign for you and me trying to see a Marquette guy win an NBA title this year.

Which reminds me: Are the Knicks the favorite in the Eastern Conference right now? Detroit nearly got bounced in the first round by #8 seed Orlando, the Sixers knocked the #2 seeded Celtics out, and the Knicks are the #3 seed. Nobody’s taking Cleveland seriously as the #4 seed except for people in Ohio, and that’s because James Harden Melts Down In What Turns Into The Final Game Of The Season is looming out there for the Cavaliers. Interesting to think about, at the very least.

Game 1: Monday, May 4; Knicks 137, 76ers 98
Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, 6pm Central, ESPN
Game 3: Friday, May 8, 6pm Central, Prime Video
Game 4: Sunday, May 10, 2:30pm Central, ABC
Game 5*: Tuesday, May 12, TBD, TBD
Game 6*: Thursday, May 14, TBD, TBD
Game 7*: Sunday, May 17, TBD, TBD

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Lower seed on the road shocks higher seed at home in Game 1. It’s a tale as old as time (e.g., The 2003 playoffs when the number 8 seeded Phoenix Suns stole Game 1 on the road against the number 1 seeded San Antonio Spurs). They say a playoff series truly doesn’t start until someone loses at home. Well, consider this playoff series started!

Dylan Harper led the team with 18 points, plugging in while Stephon Castle battled foul trouble. Victor Wembanyama notched a triple-double with 11 points, 15 bards, and 12(!) blocks.

This atmosphere looked fun. Seemed almost collegiate-like energy.

Victor Wembanyama was on a warpath in the paint on Monday night. The 12 blocks represented the most all-time in a playoff game. That’s the new benchmark, Victor. Let’s go for 13+ next game out and at least triple that amount in points (insert Cheshire grin here).

Stephon Castle shot well from downtown in Game 1, draining 3 out of 5 attempts. Who knows, maybe if he was able to play at least 35 minutes, could have been 4 out of 6 or 5 out of 7. Seems a shame that your second-best player could not stay on the floor for at least 30 minutes because of some circumstances outside of his control (and others within his control, but mostly a lot outside of his control).

Am I biased? Yes. Am I (probably) wrong? Also yes (probably). Am I coping? Yes, but that’s why they play the game, babyyy (read that in your best Dick Vitale voice).

De’Aaron Fox with the nice dish to find Dylan Harper for the dunk. Fox led the team with 6 assists in a slug fest where both teams found difficulty finding any offensive rhythm. My wife said I should say something nice about the officiating. So if she asks, I did—it’s somewhere in this paragraph if you look close enough. It’s a good thing she doesn’t read my articles unless I ask her to.

OK no more coping. It’s a highlights article for Tim Duncan’s sake. Let’s focus up like Wembanyama was focused up on defense for this entire possession where he got two blocks in a row.

Even though I’ve watched this team all year, the increased minutes in the playoffs for Dylan Harper has made me really notice how smooth his game is around the rim.

Case in point, Harper going coast-to-coast for a left-handed (his dominant hand) lay-in on the right side of the rim to protect it from would-be blockers. He makes it looks so effortless and fluid.

If you told me back in 2016 that in ten years I’ll be watching two Frenchmen battle each other in the playoffs, I’d assume you meant Tony Parker and Boris Diaw because I love those guys. I’d still watch them play today, but I suspect Diaw is off the grid somewhere doing most interesting man in the world things like stealing the Declaration of Independence or the Magna Carta, because not everything in the world revolves around the U.S.—unless it’s the NBA playoffs.

Wembanyama set up this nice transition bucket with a volleyball swat on the defensive end. Castle scoops up the remains of that poor swatted ball and finds Fox for the flush. No one asked me, but if you asked me, if these three score just a bit more in Game 2, I like the Spurs’ chances.

Blocks aren’t easy. Even if you are as tall as a tree, the timing and athleticism required to swat a shot without hitting your opponent’s arm/hand/elbow/appendages used to type out some Mandalorian fan fiction is difficult as it is, much less doing it 12 times in a playoff game.

Shout out to my wife who didn’t roll her eyes or have me sleep on the couch while I was watching the Spurs on our anniversary. To be fair, she knew what she was signing up for seven years ago when I suggested naming our daughter Bruce Bowen.

If you missed the game because you were too busy researching the number of baby girls named Bruce Bowen, here are the full-game highlights:

Next up, the Spurs remain at home against the Timberwolves for Game 2 on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.

From celebration to concern.

Former Knick J.R. Smith got knocked to the ground during the postgame celebration outside of Madison Square Garden on Monday night in a hectic scene, with the folk hero sternly telling those around him, “Relax, man, relax,” after the Knicks’ 137-98 win over the 76ers in Game 1.

Smith, who played for the team from 2011-2015, often finds his way back to The Garden to watch big Knicks games, and he took to the streets after the blowout win to start this second-round series with a smile while smoking something rolled up in a white casing.

“Relax man relax “

JR Smith joined the crowd outside MSG

At one point it got out of hand pic.twitter.com/LCHRWM0EJN

— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) May 5, 2026

The scenes outside Knicks playoffs games are always hectic, especially after wins but even after losses, and fans quickly mobbed Smith while he ventured into the mass of humanity.

The situation quickly changed, though, with Smith — and others — being knocked from his feet and having to be helped back to an upright position several moments later.

One X user posted a video that seemingly showed the crowd pushing toward Smith from behind and the momentum knocking him forward to the ground.

The 40-year-old New Jersey native impressively did not lose his joint during the fracas.

One social media video showed Smith later holding out his right hand and telling fans to relax, seeming agitated after being knocked to the curb compared to the celebratory mood he seemed to have earlier in the night.

Not every ex-Knick who attends playoff games will have the courage to do what Smith did Monday night, and how the situation unfolded could be a deterrent for others to do the same.

JR Smith got trampled at the Knicks mosh pit after the Game 1 victory against the Sixers pic.twitter.com/G9rQVJahqq

— Ahmed/The Ears/IG: BigBizTheGod (@big_business_) May 5, 2026

The next chance for a celebratory mosh pit will be Wednesday night when the third-seeded Knicks attempt to take a 2-0 series lead after the seventh-seeded 76ers.

The Knicks’ offense steamrolled a tired Philadelphia squad in Game 1 just two days after the 76ers completed their rally from a 3-1 series hole against the Celtics.

It didn’t end up mattering in a blowout, but it’s something worth monitoring going forward.

Nick Nurse pretty much forced the Knicks to play Ariel Hukporti during their 137-98 bludgeoning of the 76ers in Game 1 Monday night at Madison Square Garden. It’s something that could actually play a factor in a closer game if Mitchell Robinson’s free-throw woes continue.

Robinson checked in for Karl-Anthony Towns earlier than usual in the first quarter, since Towns picked up two early fouls.

And, knowing the Knicks didn’t want to put Towns back in the game, Nurse opted for Hack-a-Robinson.

Robinson went 0-for-4 from the line, pretty much the only thing that temporarily slowed down the Knicks offense. With no other option, coach Mike Brown took him out for Hukporti.

Hack-a-Robinson is something the Hawks at times utilized in the first round to limit Robinson’s impact and slow down the Knicks offense. He is just 5-for-17 from the line this postseason.

Some of the Hack-a-Robinson could be mitigated if Towns stays out of foul trouble and is a viable option to check back in. That’s something that could dissuade Nurse from using the strategy.

“We can’t expect them to go to the free-throw line 34 times and for us to get a win like we did,” Brown said. “We have to be better.”

The 76ers’ grand plan to keep Knicks fans away from Xfinity Mobile Arena is so far failing.

For their Eastern Conference semifinal series’ first game in Philadelphia, 56 percent of ticket purchases on secondary markets for Game 3 have a ZIP code from New York or New Jersey, according to TickPick.

Only 15 percent came from Pennsylvania.

The 76ers previously announced that they were limiting their ticket sales to residents in the Philadelphia area. That does not limit people outside that area from purchasing tickets on the secondary market or through other means, though.

• CHECK OUT THE LATEST NBA STANDINGS AND KNICKS STATS

“One thing I know about Philly fans is they’re very passionate,” Jalen Brunson said after Game 1.

“One thing about Knicks fans is they’re very passionate as well. I think the real fans from both teams are gonna show up and support.”

Landry Shamet continued to ride the bench, only seeing action in garbage time. He’s been out of the rotation since Game 3 of the first round.

The NBA draft lottery, an event that places the league’s 14 non-playoff teams into a lottery based on their regular-season record, is scheduled for 3 p.m. Sunday.

After a brief preshow on ESPN, NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum will stroll across the stage and gradually reveal envelopes containing the logos of the teams that will pick from No. 14 to No. 5, then reveal the top four teams after a commercial break.

The Washington Wizards finished with the league’s worst record, which locked them into a top-five pick. They hold a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick — the best odds a team can have in the modern lottery system — and a combined 52.1% chance of landing a top-four selection.

The issue: Luck hasn’t been on the Wizards’ side.

The Wizards have moved up just three times in the 25 NBA draft lotteries they’ve participated in since the event began in 1985. Here’s how unlucky they’ve been:

Moved down: 11 times

Stayed put: 11 times

Moved up: 3 times

The Wizards moved up two spots in 2001 before selecting Kwame Brown with the No. 1 pick. Ten years later, they moved up four spots to select John Wall with the top pick. And in 2013, they jumped five spots before selecting Otto Porter Jr. at No. 3.

But since selecting Porter Jr., Washington has moved down or stayed put in seven consecutive draft lotteries, most recently falling four spots to No. 6 in the 2026 NBA Draft after finishing with the league’s second-worst record.

The Wizards were also one lottery ball away from winning the No. 1 pick in 2019 (Zion Williamson), 2023 (Victor Wembanyama) and 2025 (Cooper Flagg). Washington owned six of the possible 11 remaining numbers in 2023 but lost out on Wemby to the San Antonio Spurs.

Washington’s shaky lottery history hasn’t eased fans’ concerns surrounding Sunday’s event. And neither has the fate of the league’s worst team under the new lottery system, which began in 2019 and has yet to award the top pick to the team with the worst record.

• 2019 New York Knicks: 3rd
• 2020 Golden State Warriors: 2nd
• 2021 Houston Rockets: 2nd
• 2022 Houston Rockets: 3rd
• 2023 Detroit Pistons: 5th
• 2024 Detroit Pistons: 5th
• 2025 Utah Jazz: 5th
• 2026 Washington Wizards: ?

The last three teams to finish with the worst record have dropped to No. 5 — their worst possible result. It’s a reason Wizards General Manager Will Dawkins seemed resigned to his team’s fate during his end-of-season press conference.

“The priority on May 10 is just to get lucky … We’re already fortunate enough to add a top-five player in this draft. I feel very confident our staff will be able to pick the best player if we have five. I’m very comfortable at five.”

Washington successfully tanked to ensure they keep their top-eight protected pick and also secure a top-five selection in the 2026 draft. But that’s all they could do.

Now, it’s in the hands of a few lottery balls.

If Cormac Karl “Max” Christie had put up the numbers he put up in 2025-26 in support of a team battling for playoff positioning down the stretch, Dallas Mavericks fans would be calling him one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He’d be a bona fide up-and-comer.

He shot a career-best 40.4% from 3-point range in his fifth year out of Michigan State and also put up a career-high mark of 12.3 points per game in his first full year with the Mavericks. He played in 77 games, starting 68 of them.

The numbers say he’s developing into a nice complementary player. The eye test does too, at times. On a roster pockmarked with holes, salary fillers and projects, why doesn’t Christie’s status as a core member moving forward feel more cemented? Why does the mention of his name and place in the organization evoke little more than a shrug and a “meh.”

In the absence of anything better, Christie seems… fine. Why is that?

Season in review

The most glaring reason may just be the collective numbness Mavs fans feel after the team’s 26-56 effort this year. It is harder than ever to feel feelings about basketball under present circumstances. If that’s the case, don’t let a bummer of a year sour you on one of the few guys on this roster who could be useful moving forward as the Mavericks start to build around Cooper Flagg.

But another part of the ambivalence that Christie engenders may be due to his tendency toward exaggerated streakiness.

He’s been streaky in the extreme since he arrived in February of last season as part of the trade that sent Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. He scored 15 or more points in each of the first seven games he played in a Mavericks uniform. He promptly followed that with a month of March that saw him average just over nine points per game on just 33% shooting from beyond the arc. He was even worse from the perimeter toward the end of last season.

Christie sustained a really good start to the season for more than a month this year. He was one of the best corner 3-point shooters in the league for most of the year, but his shooting above the break wasn’t nearly as consistent. He had a down month in December, as his minutes tapered off some, before bouncing back with 16.5 points per game in January. He seemed to lose his touch from outside down the stretch of the season, but found other ways to score in an offense that threw everything up against the wall in search of something that would stick alongside Flagg.

Would Christie’s efforts be more appreciated on a better team? Or would Christie be relegated to fewer minutes and an even smaller impact on a winner? He brought with him to Dallas a reputation as at least a plus defender, but he’s neither big nor bad enough to solve the point of attack. He can be part of a good defensive unit, but he’s not individually brilliant enough on that end of the floor to lead one.

Best game

Christie scored 26 points on 8-of-10 shooting from 3-point land and grabbed six rebounds in a 114-97 upset win at the New York Knicks on Jan. 19. In retrospect, that win and two or three similar flukes in the second half of the season likely were the difference between the Mavericks having the fifth-best odds in the Draft Lottery and eventually ending up with the eighth-best odds.

Still, it was a hell of a game for Christie, and it came amidst another one of his patented streaks. It was the second of what would be four straight games of more than 20 points in January. He made 20-of-38 from 3-point territory in those four games, but he just couldn’t miss in that head-scratcher at Madison Square Garden.

Contract Status

In the end, this team needs so much help, that it seems the best idea to keep Christie around, especially on his current contract, which will pay him just north of $8.2 million next season, before his player option ahead of 2027-28, with just under $9 million waiting. If he can take one more step in the right direction, that deal will look like a steal. He signed that four-year, $32-million deal while he was still with the Lakers.

Looking ahead

Ideally, Christie would be an effective scorer and able defender coming off the bench as the Mavericks rebuild. He was forced into a higher-profile role on a really dumb team in 2025-26, and the Mavericks may need all he can give them next year, depending on who Dallas lands with their first pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

If he can improve his above-the-break 3-point shooting and show a little more on defense, he might grow into something akin to the guard version of Naji Marshall. Capable, lovable and something altogether more than “meh.”

Before his team’s first round playoff series victory over the Rockets, Lakers coach JJ Redick laid out what needed to happen for his team to have success: take care of the basketball and prevent offensive rebounds.

The Lakers won early in the series despite struggling in those areas, before finding the right formula in a series-clinching Game 6 victory.

Now, they’re doubling down on the first emphasis ahead of their second round matchup against the Thunder, the defending NBA champions, with Game 1 set for Tuesday night at Paycom Center. 

“The reality of their defense is that whatever moments we felt Houston pressuring, like the maximum amount of pressure they put on us, that’s OKC’s baseline,” Redick said. “That’s their core.”

The Thunder have had the league’s top-ranked defense for the last two seasons for multiple reasons. 

They’ve been the best team in the league at protecting the rim from an accuracy standpoint for three seasons in a row. 

In general, the closer opponents get to the basket, the stingier the Thunder’s defense gets. 

But on the perimeter, they’re the most disruptive team in the league. 

They were one of two teams, along with the Pistons, during the regular season to be top-five in deflections (league-most 20.7), steals (second-most with 9.7), blocked shots (second-most with 6.4) and turnovers forced (second-most with 16.7).

But unlike the Pistons, they don’t commit a lot of fouls, ranking No. 7 in personal fouls per game during the regular season compared to the Pistons being last in the league (No. 30). 

“You’re talking about a team that’s top five in every category that’s disruptive-base: Steals, blocks, turnovers forced, all that stuff,” Redick said. “And they don’t foul. They somehow do all of that without fouling, which is one of the most remarkable things I think in NBA history.”

Whether Redick was being sarcastic with his comment about the Thunder’s lack of fouling, that’s the challenge the Lakers will be facing during against the Thunder: Taking care of the ball and trying to create quality offense against a Thunder defense that has very few weaknesses. 

This was one of the biggest struggles for the Lakers during the four games of their regular season series against the Thunder.

They committed 17.5 turnovers per game against the Thunder, including 20 in the Nov. 12 loss and 18 in the April 2 loss in Oklahoma City.

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The Thunder averaged 25 points off turnovers in those home wins over the Lakers, and 22.3 per game during the regular season series. 

“You can’t hear yourself,” Ayton said of the environment at Paycom Center. “It’s definitely the “Thunder” for a reason. Their fans are thunderous. You can hear the floor shaking, the bleachers, you can’t even hear a play call. You gotta be super dialed in.”

Realistically, the Lakers can’t be expected to have a low turnover rate.

Even in their losses, the Thunder won the turnover battle by a decent margin, still recording 14.2 takeaways per game.  

Their physicality forces and playstyle force errors.

And with the Lakers being a more frequent passing team with the absence of Luka Doncic, there will be openings for the Thunder to take advantage of.

The Lakers’ focus will be on limiting their mistakes. 

Limiting the types of turnovers that feed the Thunder’s ability to go on quick runs that put the game out of reach. 

“They’re really good at runs, and part of that is how good their defense is, their ability to create turnovers,” Redick said. “The live-ball turnovers really kill you. And they don’t get out in transition a ton, but when they do, they’re the best in the NBA in terms of [points per possession]. Limiting their runs, [Pacers coach] Rick Carlisle is the master of that, the quick timeout. 

Redick added: “I’ve already told the staff, already told the players, I’ve got to be  more diligent than I normally am. I like my timeouts, I like going into the fourth quarter with four timeouts, I like having two in the last 30 seconds. I don’t think you have the luxury of worrying about that because the games get away from you so quickly because of how explosive they are when they go on their runs and they do that to everybody. It’s what they do. Mitigating the 12-15-point runs, I think, is really important.”

The lottery drawing for the 2026 NBA Draft was always going to have massive stakes. A.J. Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer have been hyped as an elite trio at the top of the class going back to their high school days, and their presence caused a tank-off for the ages this season. Add in a breakout freshman year from North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson, and the draft now offers major prizes at all four spots drawn in the lottery.

The tanking was so bad this season that the NBA is ready to push through lottery reform starting next year. The bottom three teams will suddenly have worse odds than those in the 4-10 range, and the floor for the worst teams has fallen out of the top-10. The odds are going to be flattened so much throughout the order that the results will feel completely random. Bad teams better cash in now on this lottery, because the chances of landing a top pick are going to be greatly diminished in the near future.

At this point, anyone who follows the draft closely has already run hundreds of lottery simulations. But who actually deserves lottery luck? We’re here to answer that. This is all very subjective, but there are still right answers. Here’s how the lottery will play out if there’s any justice in the drawing.

14. Charlotte Hornets

Odds at top-4 pick: 2.4%

The Hornets feel like the East’s team of the future after closing the season with the best net-rating in the league after Jan. 1. Landing a power forward who can defend and space the floor or a bigger rim protecting center would be ideal with this pick. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara would both be a great fit here, but if they’re both gone, I’d also like their teammate Morez Johnson Jr. in this spot.

13. Miami Heat

Odds at top-4 pick: 4.8%

The Heat never tank, and for that I was tempted to move them into the top-four. The odds are just extremely long for that to happen. If there’s a miracle coming Miami’s way, a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade feels more likely than a jump into the top-4.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Odds at top-4 pick: 7.1%

The Clippers failing to make the playoffs puts the Thunder in the lottery. OKC moving up is the nightmare scenario for the rest of the league, but it’s not likely to happen. OKC should be able to land a very good prospect even if it stays at No. 12, and I’ll just point out that Yaxel Lendeborg was already telling me about how he’d fit next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during March Madness.

11. Golden State Warriors

Odds at top-4 pick: 9.4%

The Mavs moved up from No. 11 in the lottery to the No. 1 overall pick last year for Cooper Flagg. Could the Warriors get the same bit of luck? Golden State has a convincing case for deserving some good luck after getting screwed over by Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL. It would be wonderful to see Steph Curry play meaningful basketball again before he retires, and a top pick could help him get there whether Golden State trades it or keeps it. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Warriors move up, and I think it would be kind of cool. They just missed the cut-off for the top-4 picks in these rankings.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Odds at top-4 pick: 13.9%

The Bucks owe a pick swap to Atlanta, who also has the rights to New Orleans’ pick, so Milwaukee can only land in the top-4 if the Hawks are ahead of them. The Bucks moving up might be the most explosive possible outcome for the lottery that doesn’t involve OKC landing a top pick. Taylor Jenkins is the new head coach here, and Giannis trade rumors are likely to be kicking into high gear again this summer. Landing a top pick might make Giannis more likely to stay. I could see it happening.

9. Dallas Mavericks

Odds at top-4 pick: 29%

The Mavs cashed in on a 1.8 percent chance to land Cooper Flagg last year. Do they really deserve more lottery luck after that? This pick will be extremely important for Dallas regardless of where it ends up because the team doesn’t control its first round pick until 2031 after this year due to a series of deals made to build around Luka Doncic. Whoops. Flagg needs a co-star in the worst way, but getting super lucky two years in a row would feel like a little much.

8. Memphis Grizzlies

Odds at top-4 pick: 37.2%

The Grizzlies tore down the roster because they thought they were stuck in the middle, but it certainly feels like they sold high on both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis has a good young core already emerging led by Zach Edey and Cedric Coward, and I feel confident this front office will find more good players in this draft (they also own Phoenix’s pick at No. 16 this year) even if they don’t move up. The Grizzlies have put themselves in position to get lucky, and no one can hold it against them if they do.

7. Utah Jazz

Odds at top-4 pick: 45.2%

Utah was at the forefront of tanking shenanigans this year by resting their best players in the fourth quarter of close games. They were already fined for this, and their main goal was just to keep their pick inside of the top-8, otherwise they would have to send it to the Thunder (seriously). You can make a case that a lot of teams deserve lottery luck this year, but the Jazz aren’t one of them. The good news for Utah is that they should be a lot more competitive next year with a core of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George. They can land a premium talent in this range like Illinois’ Keaton Wagler or Arizona’s Brayden Burries even if they don’t move up.

6. Brooklyn Nets

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

The Nets toed the line of gunning for a top pick without outright tanking the way Utah and Washington did. Brooklyn hasn’t gotten any lottery luck since moving off its Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden core from a few years ago, and next season they don’t own their first-round pick because Houston has swap rights. The Nets have a great young head coach in Jordi Fernandez, and they have a very good veteran wing in his prime in Michael Porter Jr. who enjoyed a career renaissance under Fernandez this year. You can’t be mad if the Nets land in the top-4.

5. Washington Wizards

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

Congrats to the Wizards: they were the worst team in the NBA with 17 wins, and because of that they can’t fall further than fifth in this draft. That still isn’t exactly a cause for celebration though because to me it feels like there’s a big drop off in talent between pick No. 4 and pick No. 5. It felt like Washington tanked hard and rested players at every opportunity, but they were never fined for it. It almost feels like the Wizards know they aren’t getting lucky after trading for Anthony Davis and Trae Young mid-season to accelerate their timeline. Getting a top pick would completely change Washington’s two-timelines approach, especially with rumors that AD doesn’t want to be there. The Wizards fell to their pick floor last year when they landed at No. 6, and I could see it happening again.

4. Chicago Bulls

Odds at top-4 pick: 20.3%

The Bulls have the fourth-worst cumulative record in the NBA over the last nine seasons, but they haven’t landed a top-3 pick over that time, and the only time they moved up they got stuck with Patrick Williams. Chicago actually has a little bit of hope right now after firing Arturas Karnisovas and landing the Portland Trail Blazers’ pick at No. 15 overall (which finally conveyed from the 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade), but ultimately they’ll need some lottery luck to actually start to build something sustainable. The Bulls have refused to tank for years, and spent the entirety of the AK era pushing for a play-in tournament bid to try to backdoor into the playoffs. This roster is pretty bleak beyond Matas Buzelis, Josh Giddey, and the hope that last year’s lottery pick Noa Essengue can provide something in his second season. If the league really wants to punish tanking, the Bulls deserve to move up into the top-4.

3. Atlanta Hawks

Odds at top-4 pick: 43.2%

The Hawks made a brilliant trade during the 2025 draft to earn New Orleans’ unprotected first-round pick, and they can add it into their swap rights with the Bucks for a convincing chance at moving up. The Hawks have a nice foundation in place and just stole a couple games from the Knicks in the first-round of the playoffs, and moving up in the lottery would make this a fantastic season for the franchise. The Hawks still feel like they’re searching for a No. 1 option even after Jalen Johnson’s rise this year, and landing a player like Darryn Peterson or A.J. Dybantsa could set them up with success for a long time. Atlanta absolutely whiffed on its No. 1 overall pick in 2024 with Zaccharie Risacher, but that front office has been fired, and the team has made a lot of good moves since then. It would be fun to see the Hawks move up.

2. Indiana Pacers

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

The Pacers gave the NBA a thrill on their underdog run to the 2025 NBA Finals. Indiana was on the doorstep of a championship when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7, and the result was a lost season this year in his absence. The Pacers have more at stake in this lottery than any other team after trading their top-4 protected first-round draft pick for Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline. If this pick lands at No. 5 or lower, it belongs to the Clippers. It’s easy to imagine a world where Pacers immediately become the class of the East again next season with a healthy Haliburton, a full season of Zubac, and a top-4 pick like Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson. I’d like to see them rewarded after putting together such an inspiring run before Haliburton’s injury.

1. Sacramento Kings

Odds at top-4 pick: 52.1%

Don’t lump the Kings in with all the other tankers this year. Sacramento badly wanted to win this season; they just failed spectacularly at doing so. A roster led by Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, and Russell Westbrook was ill-conceived from the start, but not because the Kings were trying to lose on purpose. Sacramento has been very bad for a very long time, and it feels even more painful right now after watching Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox go on to enjoy success with other teams after they were drafted in Sacramento. The Kings haven’t had the No. 1 overall pick since 1989 when they drafted Pervis Ellison despite finishing in the lottery 19 of the last 20 years. I think Sacramento fans deserve a little luck at this point. I’m also just worried the gap between Sacramento and the rest of the West is going to get even more stark in the coming years with the new lottery odds. In a season where tanking brought the NBA great shame, the Kings put forth a real effort every night. Plenty of other teams tried to manipulate the odds to their favor. The Kings were just flat out bad.

The Lakers are marching towards a storm. 

It’s in the form of a defense that encircles its opponents, obscuring their vision, sapping their energy, rendering them shells of themselves. 

The Lakers have lost to the Thunder in all four regular-season meetings, by an average of 29.3 points per game. Now they face them in the second round of the playoffs. 

The question on everyone’s mind: Do they have a chance?

So much must go right for the Lakers to compete against the reigning champions, who are younger, faster, deeper and more physical.

The Thunder have the top-rated defense in the NBA. The Lakers are missing the league’s leading scorer in Luka Doncic, who averaged 33.5 points per game before sustaining a strained hamstring on April 2.

That’s not exactly a recipe for success.

For the Lakers to stand a chance in this series, near-perfection is required.

They need to make their 3-point shots. They need to drastically reduce their turnovers. They need to control the pace.

The 41-year-old LeBron James, who’s the same age as both teams’ coaches in this series, needs to once again put the team on his shoulders and carry them as the first offensive option.

Austin Reaves, who returned in Game 5 of the first round from an oblique strain, needs to shake off his postseason struggles over the last two years and play the All-Star-caliber basketball he displayed for much of this season.

Luke Kennard, who led the league in 3-point shooting (44.8%), needs to be aggressive and hunt for his shot as though he were a star instead of deferring to his teammates.

Marcus Smart needs to channel his Defensive Player of the Year campaign in 2021-22, using all of his basketball IQ and energy to try to slow down reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Deandre Ayton needs to be DominAyton, the most dominant, forceful version of himself, not the guy whose intensity wavers.

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Doncic needs to… return.

The Lakers aren’t just facing an uphill battle. They’re facing the Mt. Everest of opponents.

Lakers coach JJ Redick likened them to the Bulls of 1995-97 and Warriors of 2015-2017.

“The Thunder is one of the greatest teams ever in NBA history,” Redick said. “It’s just the reality. They’re that good.”

It’s easy to look at this series and say the Lakers have no chance. But somehow this team thrives under those desert-like, harsh conditions.

When they were counted out of their first-round playoff series against the Rockets without Doncic and Reaves, they responded by taking a 3-0 series lead.

When James was dismissed as being too old to carry a bunch of role players into the second round, he responded by outplaying guys nearly half his age.

When Ayton and Smart were viewed as has-beens who were slipping out of the league, they reminded us that the former was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and the latter was considered the league’s top defender.

Doncic’s absence sharpened everyone. It heightened their awareness. It made them become the best version of themselves.

“As much as we see that narrative and feel bad, you would think that it hurts us not having him, but it actually helps,” Smart said. “It forces guys to have to elevate their game to a whole other level.”

Each rotation player has met the challenge.

Against the Thunder, the tide must rise even more.

Smart didn’t hesitate when asked where guarding Gilgeous-Alexander ranks among his toughest challenges.

“No. 1,” he said.

Ayton’s task is just as difficult.

He has to try and outmatch the skills and physicality of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

“He’s the person that changes our ceiling the most,” Redick said of Ayton.

The Thunder have no holes. No weaknesses. Their defense is notoriously suffocating. Offensively, they were rated seventh.

They’re a group of guys who like each other. Who play for each other. Who know how to win.

“You can respect the team,” Jake LaRavia said. “But you can’t fear them.”

The Lakers need to believe they belong.

They need to be hyper-focused. They need to star in their roles. They need to take their games to another level.

The storm is coming.

How will they weather it?