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Garrett Crochet came to the Boston Red Sox from the Chicago White Sox in a move that surely made the southsiders groan and throw everything within reach as far as possible. All Crochet did once settling in Beantown was post a 6.3 bWAR season that featured and AL-best 205.1 IP and MLB-best 255 Ks, efforts that were buttressed by a sterling 2.59 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and minuscule 1.03 WHIP.

He finished 2nd in the American League Cy Young Award voting to Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers while making his second consecutive All Star Game and even inked a 6-year, $170 million extension to be Boston’s ace through 2031.

That’s a long-winded way of suggesting that it’s pretty obvious who Boston will roll out to start for them on Opening Day 2026 when they face the Cincinnati Reds, almost as obvious as stating that Crochet is left-handed.

The Reds will immediately get the chance to see how to line up against a southpaw, something they struggled with mightily in 2025. Their collective 79 wRC+ as a team against lefties was the 5th worst in all of baseball with bottom-feeders like the Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Pittsburgh Pirates among those few teams who did worse. Compounding that problem is that each of Austin Hays (155 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Miguel Andujar (153) are no longer with the club after being two of the precious few hitters last year who actually could perform against LHP.

In terms of the players we can actually expect to be part of the lineup, let’s walk through what manager Terry Francona has hinted at over the course of the offseason, beginning with the outfield.

Noelvi Marte struggled mightily against LHP in 2025 (55 wRC+ in 104 PA), but it seems as if he’s going to be given another shot this year to prove that was a fluke. It’s something he’s been working on a lot over the winter, and my best guess is that he’ll be in RF to start.

TJ Friedl (88 wRC+ in 198 PA) wasn’t as effective against southpaws last year as he had been in previous seasons, but he’s typically not terrible against them. Where Francona moves him is the wild card here, as Dane Myers (119 wRC+ in 117 PA against LHP in 2025 with Miami) is a plus defender in CF who the Reds brought over specifically because he can hit LHP. Friedl could, in theory, slide over to LF, but that’s likely where Spencer Steer will get some run given the options across the infield. Lefty Will Benson will undoubtedly be on the pine to start this one.

On the infield, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Reds are going to trust that the defense of Ke’Bryan Hayes will continue to be so monumental that it outweighs his abysmal output at the plate. He’ll start at 3B and likely bat 9th. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s lone switch-hitter, and he’ll bat righty and hit 3rd while playing SS. Matt McLain has regained the faith of Francona thanks to his electric spring, and all signs point to him hitting 2nd while playing 2B most everyday, but especially against LHP. At 1B, Sal Stewart appears poised to be the almost-everyday option there, particularly against LHP – and I expect that to be the case on Thursday vs. Crochet.

That leaves the DH spot for Eugenio Suárez, who has typically bashed LHP across his lengthy career (.824 OPS vs. .781 against RHP), while one of Tyler Stephenson or Jose Trevino will catch. In 2025, starter Andrew Abbott pitched to Stephenson in 18 games and Trevino in 10, so odds are it’ll be Ty Steves.

With that spelled out, here’s how I expect things to look on the card Tito hands to the home plate umpire tomorrow afternoon in Great American Ball Park:

1. Friedl – CF
2. McLain – 2B
3. De La Cruz – SS
4. Stewart – 1B
5. Suárez – DH
6. Steer – lf
7. Stephenson – C
8. Marte – RF
9. Hayes – 3B

Given the status of the game in Cincinnati, I think Francona will give Friedl the start, with Myers getting a chance to pinch-hit against Crochet at some point mid-game and remain in as defensive cover for Marte (if the game’s close, or if the Reds have an unexpected lead).

This may seem like a bit of a deep dive for one particular game, but it’s what I expect to be the thought process for Francona each and every time they face a southpaw this year with this particular roster in place.

We’re a few hours away from a brand new season of San Francisco Giants baseball. Over the last four years, the Giants have gone 321-327. The hope, then, is that starting tonight — when the Giants host the New York Yankees at 5:05 p.m. PT on Netflix — the Giants can put together a campaign that’s more than two games off of the center line for the first time since 2021 which, unfortunately, was also their last winning season.

To prepare you for tonight’s matchup, here are 26 predictions for the Giants 2026 season. They’re mostly (though not entirely) optimistic, because if you’re a Giants fan who doesn’t have optimism on March 25, when will you have it? And they’re mostly not incredibly bold, because … well … look … yes I’m optimistic, but I’m trying to also be realistic here. And we’ll make them quick (editor’s note: no, apparently, we will not), because it’s Opening Day, you’ve got things to do!

1. Willy Adames and Rafael Devers start the season hot

There’s no denying that Willy Adames and Rafael Devers are two of the team’s best hitters. There’s also no denying that their respective introductions to the fanbase last year didn’t go as planned. Adames, fresh off signing the (then) largest contract in franchise history, was hitting .193/.281/.303 a week into June. Devers, who came over later that month in a blockbuster trade with the Boston Red Sox, hit 21-100 with 36 strikeouts in his first 28 games following the deal.

Just for good measure, they were — among players who made the Opening Day roster — the two coldest hitters on the team in Cactus League play, with respective OPS figures of .438 and .510.

I’m saying it doesn’t matter, and they hit the ground running. Starting tonight. Speaking of which…

2. Someone plays 160 games

A year ago, Devers became the rare player who appeared in 163 games, thanks to the schedule at the time of the trade. It was the fourth time in his career he played at least 150 games. Adames? 160 games last year, and 161 the year prior. Matt Chapman has played in 150 games on four different occasions, while Heliot Ramos got into 157 games a year ago.

160 is a large number of games, and the smart money says that everyone will get dinged up enough that it doesn’t happen. But I don’t listen to the smart money. Which, unfortunately, explains a lot about me.

3. The Giants have more debuts this year than last year

Last year, six different Giants made their Major League debut, with an even split between position players and pitchers: hitters Christian Koss, Bryce Eldridge, and Drew Gilbert, and arms Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, and Joel Peguero.

I think we’ll get more this year. That’s perhaps slightly bold, given that the Giants didn’t make any Rule 5 protections this season, though they did make a Rule 5 selection in Daniel Susac, who made the Opening Day roster and thus, barring something truly unexpected, will be the first Giant to debut this season.

The bulk of the young, unproven players in camp this year (like the aforementioned Carsons) have already made their debuts, though there were a few standouts — Victor Bericoto, anyone? — who are still waiting for the first call. San Francisco has a set enough roster that this may be a bold prediction, but there’s also talent in the pipeline.

4. Logan Webb throws multiple complete game shutouts

I think Logan Webb ends the year still searching for his elusive first no-hitter, but along the way, I’ll say he makes it through nine donut innings on multiple occasions. Webb has just two such games in his career — once each in 2024 and 2025 — and, subsequently, has led the National League in them in each of the past two years.

5. Adrian Houser is replaced

This prediction looked smarter a few weeks ago, when it was accompanied by a rosier prediction: Hayden Birdsong ends the year as the team’s No. 2 starter. Since then, Birdsong was shut down and scheduled for Tommy John surgery, ending his 2026 before it began.

I still think that Houser ends the year outside of the rotation, and not because of injury. The Giants will give him every chance to stick, since he’s on a two-year deal, and I think he’ll be fine. Not good, per se, but fine. But at some point, something more enticing will come along — maybe the development of Whisenhunt, Seymour, Trevor McDonald, or Blade Tidwell; maybe a trade; maybe a reliever who gets a chance to stretch out — and the Giants will shift Houser to a different role (or the same role, with a different team).

On that note…

6. The rotation looks worse entering the offseason than last year

The Giants rotation doesn’t project to be good, but it’s not hard to see how it could overperform and be an asset. But even if that happens, the team has quite an issue ahead of them: after patching two spots in the rotation this past winter, they’ll enter the next offseason in at least the same situation, with Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle entering free agency. I already predicted that Houser will lose his spot in the starting five, but that doesn’t guarantee the Giants find a suitable replacement, as we all saw with Jordan Hicks a year ago. There’s a very real world in which the Giants enter the offseason with a rotation of Webb, Landen Roupp, and a trio of question marks.

7. They have three All-Stars

This one just feels right. The Giants have a quartet of clear All-Star talents in Webb, Adames, Devers, and Chapman. Patrick Bailey is an All-Star level catcher, though he doesn’t hit well enough to get recognized as such. Ryan Walker has been an All-Star level reliever in the past. Heliot Ramos has been a literal All-Star, and Luis Arráez has been three times. Harrison Bader and Jung Hoo Lee have it in them if everything breaks right.

Most of those players won’t be All-Stars this year. But three of them will be.

8. We see Tim Lincecum

Everyone’s favorite Giant, Tim Lincecum, has mostly been absent at 24 Willie Mays Plaza since retiring. That’s always been part of Timmy’s lore: I’m not sure there’s ever been a Giant who was more personable and fan friendly, yet I’m also not sure there’s ever been a Giant who so badly wanted to hide from the spotlight of stardom. He is, at once, as comfortable and uncomfortable as you can be with the idea of being adored by the masses.

That will never change. Fans clamoring for Lincecum to show up at the ballpark on a regular basis like Mays did and Barry Bonds does, will always be disappointed. You won’t see him yukking it up with Kruk and Kuip in the broadcast booth once a month, or running drills with Buster Posey in Scottsdale. The dam will never break, but at some point I expect someone to come along and meagerly splash some water from one side of it onto the other. Maybe it’s a Wall of Fame ceremony, maybe it’s to celebrate Brandon Belt, or maybe it’s entirely out of the blue, but I think we see the long hair and soul-healing smile of Tim Lincecum sometime this year.

Above all else, I hope he’s doing OK.

9. ABS has no impact on Patrick Bailey’s defense

When it was announced that the automated balls and strikes challenge system was coming to Major League Baseball, fans flocked to question how it would impact Bailey’s all-world framing statistics. I always felt like the answer was “not at all.” While Bailey has been known to egregiously steal a strike or two, the bulk of his framing value — to my eye — comes from the 50/50 balls. It sounds silly to say, but a lot of Bailey’s defensive wizardry comes in the form of helping umpires get the correct call, not the incorrect one. A good framer is less invested in getting the pitches four inches off the plate called for strikes, and more determined to ensure that the ones that just tickle the edge of the zone are properly called. With only two failed challenges allowed, it’s hard to see that skill being notably diminished under the new system.

10. The bullpen will look dramatically different at the end of the year

There’s always a lot of turnover in the bullpen. That’s the case for all 30 teams. Players surprise, for better and for worse; injuries abound; and guys need rest and reset time.

I predict an especially heavy turnover year for the Giants bullpen. I think the eight arms in the ‘pen for Game No. 162 will have more than 50% turnover from the octet that will be behind the outfield wall at Oracle Park tonight, though that’s not a very bold prediction given that Sam Hentges, Jason Foley, Reiver Sanmartín, and Peguero are all starting the year injured. And along those lines…

11. We get more bullpen heat

I’ll admit it: the Giants had me worried this offseason with their bullpen plan of action. They still do, admittedly, though that fear has been slightly reduced. I wasn’t a fan of the way the front office — which had already traded Camilo Doval and lost Randy Rodríguez for the year — targeted crafty finesse relievers, instead of chasing the electric stuff that defines every good modern bullpen. My fears were compounded when the team traded Kai-Wei Teng right before camp, and then Birdsong suffered his season-ending injury, and then they reassigned Gregory Santos and his triple-digit heater to Minor League camp.

But they happily surprised me with their Opening Day roster, which included the admissions of both Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian. I suspect those two will stick, and more heat will join them (and Erik Miller). Santos will likely get called up at some point, and Peguero will get healthy eventually. Will Bednar will likely factor into the mix some day, and perhaps Blade Tidwell moves from the AAA rotation to the MLB bullpen. Spencer Miles probably gets returned by the Toronto Blue Jays at som point in the season. As a result, by the end of the year, I project the bullpen to be modernized, with a whole slew of flame-throwing arms.

While we’re on the subject…

12. Gregory Santos will be their best reliever

I want to make it clear that this is a positive Santos prediction, not a negative Walker one. I think Walker will have a fantastic year, and I believe he’ll stay in the closer role all year long, and deservedly so.

But I also think that, by the end of the year, the reliever you think is best on the team is Santos. Perhaps it sounds like I’m a little high on the aforementioned 100-mph fastball. Maybe it seems as though I’m being very bold by predicting that an NRI who has already been reassigned ends the year as the star of the ‘pen. You might think I’m just clinging to an old belief in someone who was once one of the top prospects in the system, despite that being many years ago, before getting designated for assignment and playing for two other franchises before returning home.

No. It’s just an understanding that Santos, when healthy and in rhythm, is really good. He only has one healthy season (2023 with the Chicago White Sox), but in that year he ranked 11th out of all MLB relievers in FIP (2.65) and 15th in fWAR (1.5). His average fastball velocity (98.8 mph) was 98th percentile out of all MLB pitchers, while his walk rate (5.9%) was 85th percentile, and his barrel rate (1.5%) was 100th percentile. It is, frankly, a staggering profile.

He didn’t have the best spring, which is understandable: he’s only pitched 26.2 innings over the last two seasons, between both the Majors and the Minors. He has rust. But his injuries weren’t to his arm, and he’s only 26 years old. Expecting Santos to stay healthy might be a bold prediction; thinking he’ll excel if healthy, on the other hand, is a very mild one.

13. Rafael Devers is a Gold Glove finalist

Count me among those who were very impressed by how well — and quickly — Devers caught on at first base last year. And count me among those who think that anyone who can play third base in the Majors — even play it poorly, as Devers did — can handle first fairly gracefully. Give him a full season at the bag, and working with Ron Washington, and I think Devers will end the year as an asset at the corner, rather than a liability.

14. Harrison Bader and Luis Arráez go in different directions

It’s pretty obvious why the Giants went after Bader and Arráez this offseason, and made the pair the only two position players they signed to Major League deals. Both provide things the team desperately needed: in Bader’s case, center field defense and a third outfielder that isn’t a massive question mark; in Arráez’s case, a contact maven who can provide offense without regularly striking out, and frustrate opposing pitchers.

Yet while both offer some clear skills that the team desperately needs, they also have some glaring red flags in their respective games, and it’s why the market never fully materialized for either player (even in a modest offseason, Bader and Arráez earned just the 16th and 24th largest total contracts, respectively, among position players).

For Bader, the red flag comes from healthy pessimism that he can’t repeat his 2025 offensive performance. He hit so well last year (122 wRC+) that he ended up being a critical part of a sensational Philadelphia Phillies offense. But that came after a three-year run of hitting .239/.284/.360, for a wRC+ of 80. In other words, after three straight years of hitting like Bailey, Bader suddenly hit like Chapman in his age-31 season. The defensive savant has credited those improvements to a changed swing, but I’m dubious that it’s anything sustainable. His underlying statistics didn’t look much different, and still paint a fairly grim picture, and it’s easy to look at his success and see a lot of luck at play: he had a .359 BABIP, after entering the year with a career mark of just .292. Subsequently, his batting average (.277) outpaced his expected average (.220) by an outrageous 57 points, while his slugging (.449) was ahead of his expected slugging (.374) by a full 75 points. All while rocking a strikeout rate (27.1%) that was 7.4 percentage points ahead of his mark during his prior three years.

As for Arráez, the known concern is his poor second base defense, but I’m more worried about the declining numbers on offense. His wRC+ has gone from 131 in 2023, to 109 in 2024, to 104 a year ago, while his batting average has dipped from .354 to .314 to .292. If those trend lines continue, he’ll be a below-average hitter in 2026, with no defensive or baserunning value to make up for it.

The worst case scenario for each player is still a valuable addition to the Giants. Bader is good enough defensively to be a huge part of the team no matter how he hits, even if he eventually becomes a fourth outfielder. And Arráez is competitive enough with his at-bats that he’ll always provide something the Giants need in the batter’s box.

So my cop-out prediction is this: the red flags portend struggles for one of those players, but not for both of them. I don’t know which one. But the Giants will end the season either looking for a starting center fielder so Bader can be a defensive replacement, while bemoaning the fact that they can’t afford to re-sign Arráez, or they’ll end it geeked about Bader being their All-Star-level man in the middle, while wondering what the hell they should do at the keystone. Actually, let me amend that last point…

15. They figure out second base

The Giants haven’t hidden their concerns at second base, but they haven’t fully addressed them, either. They didn’t make a run at Bo Bichette in free agency. They flirted with trades for Brendan Donovan and CJ Abrams, but ultimately landed on a one-year deal for Arráez, with Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss backing him up.

I’m assuming there’s a belief within the organization that they only need a stopgap at the position for a few years. Four of their best prospects — Josuar González, Luis Hernández, Jhonny Level, and Gavin Kilen — play shortstop, which means at least one of them is likely to move to the other side of the bag, either to facilitate roster logistics or cover up defensive deficiencies. But none of those four have played above Low-A, so they need to figure something out for at least another year after this one, and probably two.

I predict they do exactly that. Perhaps Arráez rebounds offensively while showing off improved defense after a spring in the desert with Washington, and the team extends him before the year ends. Maybe he craters, and Schmitt or Koss takes the job and runs with it. Don’t sleep on Jesús Rodríguez, either: he may be the third-string catcher, but he was initially developed as a third baseman, spent much of spring at second, and has one hell of a bat. And hell, who knows … maybe they revisit those Abrams discussions at the trade deadline.

16. Kyle Harrison dominates them

My favorite move of the offseason didn’t involve the Giants at all: it was the Red Sox trading Kyle Harrison to the Milwaukee Brewers. Harrison, once the top prospect in the organization, hadn’t done well in his short stint with the BoSox, and now his fortunes have reversed. Instead of being in an organization that doesn’t value the pitches he throws the best, he gets new life with a team known for spinning gold out of hay bales of pitching prospects.

I expect big things for Harrison. He’s still just 24, and I haven’t forgotten the way he set Minor League records while tearing through the farm system. If there’s a place where he can succeed, it’s unequivocally Milwaukee.

So far, that’s what he’s done. Harrison not only made the Opening Day roster, but did so as part of the Brewers’ rotation. He’ll get a chance to prove himself every fifth day, and if he lines up to face the Giants this year … well … I expect that to go very, very well for him, and very poorly for the Giants. It just makes sense.

It should be noted that the Devers trade was, without question, a good one for the Giants. No amount of Harrison success will change that. But … if Harrison has a breakout season for the Brew Crew, it won’t reflect well on the Giants. While it won’t make them regret the trade in the slightest, it will open up the door for criticism. Why was their development team unable to get the most out of Harrison, when another team could? Why didn’t they push for a different prospect package and make their homegrown ace-in-the-making untouchable?

And as long as we’re talking about old friends…

17. Luis Matos has a big year … somewhere

As expected, the Giants designated Matos for assignment on Wednesday. He didn’t make the Opening Day roster, and he didn’t have options, and so his Giants story likely ends.

San Francisco waited until the 11th hour to DFA Matos, in hopes that he can sneak through waivers, but I doubt he does. He’d make a lot of sense on a bad team that can give him run, or on a team dealing with spring injuries that needs a fill-in, or on a team that just lost Jurickson Profar to a 162-game suspension, if such a thing happens to exist.

And I think he has a big year. This is not rooted in anything analytical: it’s really hard to look at Matos’ stats and underlying metrics and find a reason for optimism. Instead, it’s just a vibes and hope-based bold prediction, that the Matos who has shown flashes over the years finally puts it all together. There are certainly crazier things than a just-turned-24-year-old former top prospect figuring things out, even if it’s hard to envision how that would actually happen.

18. They swing another big deadline deal

I think the Giants are mostly done spending money. They still owe nearly half a billion to Devers, Adames, and Chapman, and their ownership group is openly, if not proudly, hesitant to dole out big contracts. And at some point they have to start planning for either a Logan Webb extension, or a big free agent to minimize the blowback after letting Webb sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

So I don’t expect the Giants to redo the Devers trade this summer, and take Bryce Harper or Fernando Tatis Jr. off someone’s hands, though I’d love to see that. But I still think they make a big trade. Likely that means giving up a few of their best prospects for a young, cost-controlled talent, but if they struggle in the standings, it could mean parting ways with some of their MLB-level players, and really re-upping the farm. Either way…

19. They have a top-five farm by the end of the year

This one is a fairly bold prediction. The Giants’ farm system has been steadily trending in the right direction, but they’re still a ways away from being in the top five. And while they’ll get a boost from having the No. 4 overall pick in July’s draft, they’ll likely take an even bigger hit, as top prospect Bryce Eldridge will almost certainly graduate this year.

But farms are built on top-end talent, and I think the Giants will replace Eldridge with the increased development of González and Hernández. I project the former is a top-five prospect at year’s end, and the latter a top-25. With players like Level, Kilen, Bo Davidson, Dakota Jordan, and Parks Harber threatening to rise the ranks as well, to make no mention of their cast of exciting young pitchers, it’s not inconceivable that the team could end the year with a farm system positively bursting with potential, even without Eldridge. And while I’ve got you here…

20. Bryce Eldridge has a distinctly mediocre season

Eldridge is unquestionably one of the top prospects in baseball. Yet there’s a reason that every projection system expects him to be, at best, an average bat with a sky-high strikeout rate. And there’s a reason he’s beginning the year in AAA.

He’ll be back in the Majors soon enough, and he’ll be must-watch TV when he is. And really, this prediction is less about throwing cold water on the Eldridge hype, and more about resetting your expectations. The lefty won’t turn 22 until a few days before the World Series, and will watch hundreds and hundreds of players older than he is get drafted in July.

Sure, we might all be dreaming of him anchoring the heart of the lineup with Devers, but here’s the reality: if Eldridge hits at the league average this season, that’s the type of performance that will have people writing sentences like this ahead of the 2027 season: Eldridge held his own as a 21-year getting his first taste of MLB pitching, so we can expect him to break out with a star-level performance this year.

That’s just how it goes. Eldridge is going to face the best pitchers in the world, who will have a scouting report on him. He’ll see pitches and gameplans that he’s never been exposed to before. He’ll struggle to tread water. And if he holds his own, just at an average level, that will be a sign of how good he is, not how bad he is.

21. There are more Tommy John surgeries coming down the line

The Giants have lost two of their most exciting pitchers to Tommy John surgery in the last eight months: Rodríguez last fall, and Birdsong this spring. Despite that, they’ve been remarkably good at keeping their pitchers from needing TJ over the years. That can’t last forever, and I fear that more such surgeries are in their future, be it at he Major League or Minor League levels. I’m not going to predict anyone in particular, though, as that would be supremely grim. Hey, let’s talk about something happier.

22. They have five 20-homer hitters

Last year, Adames finally broke the 30-home run curse that had lasted nearly two decades. This year, I predict the Giants have a remarkably balanced attack with the long ball, with a quintet putting the ball over the fence at least 20 times. Adames and Devers are locks if healthy: neither player has ever failed to hit 20 homers in a full season. Chapman is a near-lock. I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to project Ramos to pop for 20.

That still leaves one more spot though. I don’t know who it will be, but there are options. If Eldridge is called up sometime before June, he has a great chance of getting there. If either Schmitt or Jerar Encarnación gets consistent playing time, they could do it. Bader had 17 a year ago, so it’s not entirely inconceivable. Arráez surprisingly just got there if you combine his last three seasons…

Moving on.

23. Heliot Ramos rebounds in the right ways

The worst-kept secret in baseball is my undying belief in Ramos. If belief paid real dividends, you wouldn’t be reading this silly 5,000-word article, because I’d have retired to a beach somewhere after 2024. But 2025 was not just a step backwards for the now-26 year old, but it was an odd season. Much was made of his atrocious defensive play, and his uncharacteristic blunders on the basepaths, both of which are well documented. But what flew under the radar was his regression against left-handed pitchers. After crushing southpaws at a historic pace in 2024 — he had a .370/.439/.750 slash line, for a 222 wRC+ — Ramos fell back to earth in 2025, hitting just .254/.323/.420, good for a 107 wRC+.

But also flying under the radar was his emergence against righties. Ramos looked like he had potential to slip into a platoon in 2024, when he only hit .240/.286/.387, with an 89 wRC+ against same-handed pitchers. Remarkably, in 2025, he hit them nearly as well as lefties, slashing .257/.330/.392, with a 106 wRC+.

The result was that, while Ramos’ overall offensive package took a step backwards, he was the rare hitter who was comfortably above league-average against both right-handers and left-handers. The success against righties came in a huge sample size (more than 500 plate appearances), which gives us a lot of reason to believe it’s sustainable. I think we’ll see a rebound against left-handed hitters … not to the Aaron Judge-esque 1.189 OPS that he posted two years ago, but to something in between his 2024 and 2025. That, combined with sustained above-average hitting against righties, would make him one of the top hitters in baseball.

Perhaps more importantly, I think the defense recovers. It seems very clear that Ramos’ struggles in the grass a year ago were primarily mental, and both he and his coaches have said all the right things about him this spring. He has all the tools, he just needs to make them work. There’s a big year waiting for him.

24. Daniel Susac survives the year, but…

Most Rule 5 picks don’t last on their new team all year, and that’s doubly true for catchers. But I think Susac will be the exception to the rule (5). The Giants are fairly enamored with him, and they don’t need great production from their backup catcher, given how heavily they’ll rely on Bailey. They’ve been impressed with his defense, and his power — which is either excellent or underwhelming, depending on who you ask — was eye-opening in Spring Training, where his exit velocities were highly notable.

Susac has the makings of the rare Rule 5 pick who both has too much potential to not hoard, and is good enough to stick on talent alone. He entered the spring in pole position for the role due to his Rule 5 status, but ended the spring having won the job simply by outplaying veteran Eric Haase and Rodríguez, one of the team’s top prospects.

Which brings us to the “but…” This one’s a double prediction: I think Susac survives the year and plays well, but Rodríguez also becomes a huge part of the team at some point, be it as a second baseman, a third catcher, a fourth outfielder, or a super-utility player. There’s room at the table for both of them.

25. Tony Vitello doesn’t get thrown out early on

There’s been a lot of discussion about when Tony Vitello will get his first career ejection. He’s a manager who leads with a lot of energy, and wears emotions on his sleeve. He’s not afraid to mix things up. Those are the traits of someone who will get thrown out early and often.

I don’t buy the early part, though. Probably not the often part, either. For all his outward emotion, Vitello doesn’t strike me as the sort to pump up his team by getting ejected. I kind of feel like he’d view that as abandoning them. Especially in the early going, when he’s still establishing himself, he’ll want to make sure that he’s right there with his players, and not leaving them out on the grassy, playful battlefield.

Then again, MLB umps have more fragile egos than the ones in the SEC, so he may be in for a rude surprise at some point…

26. The Giants finish second in the NL West, and make the postseason

We end with the happiest prediction of all: postseason baseball returns to San Francisco. This prediction is partially optimism about the Giants, and partially pessimism about the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. I’ll stop short of saying they catch the Dodgers — wouldn’t that be fun, though? — but I think the curse of mediocrity is broken, and the Giants return to the postseason.

Happy Opening Day, everyone. Enjoy the optimism, even if it lasts for just a few hours.

SAN FRANCISCO — The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season begins at Oracle Park on Wednesday night with the San Francisco Giants hosting the New York Yankees.

Left-hander Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA in 2025) takes the mound for the Yankees, while the Giants turn to ace Logan Webb (15-11, 3.22 ERA) in the first game for new manager Tony Vitello. The Giants haven't reached the postseason or posted a winning record since 2021.

Three-time MVP Aaron Judge leads the way for the Yankees, who begin their campaign looking to snap a 17-year World Series championship drought.

This Opening Day marks the regular-season debut of MLB's new automated balls and strikes (ABS) system that allows players to challenge balls and strikes.

Follow for live updates:

1st inning: Giants 0, Yankees 0

The Giants opened the season with a couple of Logan Webb strikeouts, sending Trent Grisham and Aaron Judge back to the dugout. Giants were off the field and on to the bottom of the inning after getting Cody Bellinger out.

Rafael Devers made contact and sent one over the head of second-baseman Jazz Chisolm Jr. Grisham had to run it down but not before it could drop to the ground. Devers singled with one on base. Giants could not capitalize after Willy Adames was struck out and Jung Hoo Lee was grounded out.

MLB season gets underway

Baseball is season is officially among us in this classic battle of east versus west between the Giants and Yankees. Both teams leaned into their city's history as the Giants brought trolleys, a historic means of transportation in San Francisco, on to the playing field as they introduced their starters.

Yankees lineup was introduced running out of their dugout between taxi cabs with a "NY" logo near the rear while "Lean Back" by Fat Joe played on the ballpark's speakers. Giants opened the game with Logan Webb versus Trent Grisham at bat.

Webb opened the 2026 season with a strikeout.

Where to watch Giants vs Yankees

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco
• Live stream: Exclusively on Netflix

The Dodgers have won the last two World Series and are heavy favorites to return to the playoffs yet again. As the Dodgers try to become the first MLB team in 28 years to win three championships in a row, all of the authors at True Blue LA look ahead to the 2026 season, on the eve of opening day.

Let’s get to the predictions.

Season outlook

Eric Stephen: This is probably the best Dodgers lineup of my lifetime, with plenty of quality depth. The addition of Kyle Tucker puts them over the top. They have depth on the pitching side too, even with the inevitable handful of arms on the injured list at any given time.

Andy Lane Chapman: Last season everyone wanted to crown them 120-game winners. I think they’ll do slightly better than last year overall, and will still have that head-scratching stretch where nothing goes right.

Michael Elizondo: This team could go 116-46 and romp to 11-0 in the postseason as the top seed. But that outcome would require both everything going right and the naysayers being right about the competitive balance of the sport. When this team coasted last year, it was rough to watch – until October. Assuming good health, I expect more of the same. The Dodgers will romp in October beating the Seattle Mariners in five largely uncompetitive games to the enraged howls of the league.

Jacob Macofsky: Fresh off of two consecutive World Series championships, the Dodgers ensured they had no weaknesses by acquiring high end talent at positions of need. In a division where the Dodgers continue to remain supreme, the other three playoff hopeful teams know that it’s a race for a Wild Card spot. The Dodgers know what the ultimate goal is, so their priority doesn’t concern how the fare in the regular season, although I do see them hitting the century-mark in wins for the first time since 2023.

Estevão Maximo: It’s a tad strange to talk of positive regression having won the World Series in the last two seasons. Nevertheless, even before accounting for the upgrades of Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz, it’s difficult not to predict a better outlook for a team that only had one full healthy season from a starting pitcher last year—one that also saw a relatively pedestrian hitting performance from the likes of Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández.

Stacie Wheeler: The back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers added even more talent to their already stacked roster with the off-season signings of Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz. The Dodgers, deep with talent, will surely hit some rough patches in 2026. However, their experience will help them overcome the bumps along the way when they make a run for an unprecedented three-peat in 2026. 

Particular games we’re looking forward to

Andy Lane Chapman: The Dodgers play in Detroit on my 50th birthday. I predict I will decide to do something else that day instead of driving to Detroit and will miss a Tarik Skubal/Shohei Ohtani head-to-head matchup in person.

Michael Elizondo: My itinerary is what I’m looking forward to completing. Dates that jump out include May 1 at St. Louis (always look forward to first getting on the road), May 23 at Milwaukee (trying to out Vassegh David Vassegh by doing Bernie’s Slide and enjoy the game with Molly Knight’s contingent) and July 20 in Philadelphia (if everything goes right, that’s MLB stadium 30 in six seasons).

Jacob Macofsky: The one game I’m looking forward to seeing in person is on April 25, when the Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs. It’ll not only be Roki Sasaki’s bobblehead night, but it’ll be Kyle Tucker’s first series against the Cubs since signing, and a duel between former Astros teammates: him and Alex Bregman. I’ve also seen 22 out of 30 teams play in person, and, somehow, the Cubs have always alluded me.

Estevão Maximo: Watch as many games as possible.

Stacie Wheeler: I’m excited to go to my first game of the season at Dodger Stadium on April 13 vs. the New York Mets. 

Players we’re keeping our eye on

Eric Stephen: Emmet Sheehan was dominant over the last two months of 2025, having fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers just had all four workhorses atop the rotation healthy and thriving in October. This year, Sheehan gets an extended run to put up a strong full season.

Andy Lane Chapman: So many players are heading into this season finally healthy again. I’m going to take the slimmed-down Max Muncy. The Dodgers continue to re-sign him for a reason, and he’s going to have one of his better seasons this year as a ‘thank you’ and to prove it to himself and the team that’s he’s still one of the top half of third basemen in the league. Also, he can do a lot of damage now further down in the lineup due to Kyle Tucker’s addition.

Michael Elizondo: Roki Sasaki has been strangely mercurial on the mound. The sooner Sasaki figures it out, the easier the Dodgers’ regular season will be. Mookie Betts figured out how to play well at shortstop well last year. But hit worse than Cesar Izturis. While Betts had justification last year and has expressed confidence this year about returning to MVP form, I find myself skeptical. There’s multiple years left on Betts’ deal. I’ll happily set the bar at “don’t be an offensive liability in October,” which seems unfair until one remembers the crazy discourse arising from Game 3 of the World Series about changing the rules about intentional walks, which are fine.

Jacob Macofsky: Kyle Tucker is the one name I’m keeping my eye on for 2026. He provides a much-needed defensive facelift in the outfield and he is slated to be the No. 2 hitter in a very deep lineup full of former MVPs and All Stars. He’s a power-speed threat right in the physical prime of his career.

Estevão Maximo: I’ll leave the Sheehan breakout watch for the masses, instead focusing on the sophomore blossoming. A term I’ve coined to describe the bounce-back campaign from Tanner Scott, now somewhat away from the spotlight, with Díaz spearheading this bullpen.

Stacie Wheeler: Sasaki will have my attention in 2026. Dave Roberts has the young right-hander in the starting rotation to open the season, but there’s a good chance he’ll shift to a high-leverage bullpen role or perhaps a hybrid starter-reliever if his command issues persist.

Stone cold locks

These predictions are guaranteed to be 100-percent accurate.

Eric Stephen: Andy Pages will hit two home runs on Monday, May 22 against the Twins in Minneapolis. Tanner Scott will strike out 86 batters during the regular season. Kyle Tucker will have three hits on May 5 in Houston against one of his former teams.

Michael Elizondo: The Alex Freeland Experience will resolve itself by Memorial Day. Landon Knack will retain his frequent flier king champion status. Ben Casparius will somehow lead the team in three-inning saves. 

Jacob Macofsky: Shohei Ohtani last season homered in the home opener against the Detroit Tigers and in the regular season finale against the Seattle Mariners. I see him doing the same thing, this time with his final regular season home run being No. 56.

Estevão Maximo: Two Dodgers starters will record 15-strikeout games this season, something that has never happened in the history of this franchise. Kyle Tucker will steal no more than 13 bags in a healthy season.

Stacie Wheeler: Alex Freeland will hit two home runs in a game. Andy Pages has a big first half and is selected to the All-Star team. Edwin Díaz strikes out Juan Soto when they face off for the first time this April.

SAN FRANCISCO — After a five-month offseason break, baseball is back.

It's a classic East vs. West Coast battle to get things going on MLB Opening Day as the New York Yankees open the 2026 regular-season with a visit to the Bay Area, to face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.

The Giants have a couple of new starters added over the offseason in their Opening Day lineup. Second baseman Luis Arraez, whom that they signed a one-year deal earned the starting nod. Joining him as a new Giant is center fielder Harrison Bader. Bader signed a two-year, $20.5 million contract with San Francisco.

New York's lineup for the opener doesn't include any new faces for 2026, with three-time MVP Aaron Judge batting second for the Yankees on Wednesday.

Here are the full Opening Day lineups for the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees:

Yankees lineup today

Starting pitcher: LHP Max Fried

1. Trent Grisham (L) CF
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF
3. Cody Bellinger (L) LF
4. Ben Rice (L) 1B
5. Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
7. José Caballero (R) SS
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 3B
9. Austin Wells (L) C

AL West: Mariners (17 votes)

Crowd: Mariners (95.6%)

• Zach: Knock it off. Get serious.
• Isabelle: This is weird, it makes me nervous, but it doesn’t mean it’s wrong…
• Eric: Such confidence in a Mariners roster is a very unfamiliar feeling, but the rest of the AL West just doesn’t scare me at all.
• John: MARITIME LAW IS IN EFFECT!
• Ryan: goms

AL Central: Tigers (9)

Royals (6), Guardians (2)
Crowd: Tigers (71.2%)

• Kate: I picked the Royals for everything last year and then they were terrible, but this year will be different, I swear. Did you watch the Wittz Carlton digital short? They are powered by friendship!
• Eric: I picked the Royals because other smart people picked them.
• Ryan: The Royals brought in their fences so much that even Jonathan India can hit a home run there now.
• John: The Royals are plucky (see the Wild Card section) and Maikel Garcia is a monster. But the Tigers got better at multiple spots this winter, much as I’d like Framber to be laughable. It’s theirs to lose.
• Max: I hate this division. (Royals)
• Nick T: Someone has to win this accursed division. (Tigers)

AL East: Blue Jays (9)

Red Sox (4), Yankees (4)
Crowd: Blue Jays (50.8%)

• Isabelle: Evidently a hot-ish take, but I am afraid of the Red Sox and I think they’re going to be very good.
• Nicky V: People are sleeping on the Red Sox. They’ll finish one game behind the Jays.
• Eric: This is my reverse jinx on the Jays.
• Ryan: I love the Sox rotation
• Ezra: I’m a little surprised people are so low on the Yankees. The Red Sox will be a factor, but I think it’s far from a sure thing that they’re going to step over them into the playoffs. Especially considering the Yankees beat em 2 outta 3 in the wildcard last year. 
• Nick T: I’m emotionally hedging on the Blue Jays. I want so badly to be wrong. Toronto’s pitching is certainly a reason to assume there will be some regression but it still feels like their division to lose.

AL WC: Red Sox (12), Royals (8), Yankees (7)

Tigers (6), Astros (3), Rays (2), A’s (1), Orioles (1), Rangers (1)
Crowd: Yankees (69.9%), Red Sox (45.9%), Guardians (24%)

• Zach: Get you a man who believes in you the way Kate believes in the 2020s Rangers.
• Kate: It is important to have a brand.
• Eric: Any person who believes in the Texas Rangers is not someone Kate will want to spend time with, I would wager.
• Ryan: The Rays are sneaky good. If I were braver, I’d pick them in the East. 
• John: The Rays are too sneaky and will get trampled for at least one more year. I cannot take seriously their pitching staff, perhaps to my peril. Kansas City, meanwhile, will feast upon much of the Central and be pesky against the coasts.
• Ezra: Whoever picked the A’s let me know. I want some of whatever you’re smoking. 
• Nick T: I’ve said I’ll stop believing in the Astros when they miss the playoffs. Well, as it happens I’m not built like that. Might need some professional help process these fears. For now I’m dumping them in WC3, and dumping my trauma here.

AL #1 Seed: Mariners (12)

Red Sox (2), Blue Jays (1), Royals (1), Yankees (1)
Crowd: Mariners (61%)

• Ryan: Smitty Werbenjägermanjensen
• Nick T: Mariners have the highest odds in the American League to make the playoffs (80.4%) and win the World Series (8.9%). I am extremely susceptible to propaganda. 

AL Sleeper Team (FG playoff odds <33.3%): A’s (6)

Guardians (4), Rays (3), White Sox (3)
Crowd: A’s (55.5%)

• Isabelle: On a fundamental level, I think the A’s and Rays should not be allowed to count as sleeper teams, given that at this point in their franchise histories they’re more sleeper team than “serious” team. But also there’s so much parity in the AL there really aren’t any other good options. What, like we’re going to pick the Angels?
• Zach: I do not understand what John, Ryan, and Connor see here. The White Sox have just five players who FG projects for at least 2 WAR, and the best of those five clocks in at 2.5. Not so much of a sleeper team as a coma-ridden one.
• Kate: I think the White Sox are a sexy sleeper pick because they’re showing some forms of life with young intriguing players after being so historically awful, but also, no. The A’s are the best team out of this group and it’s not close, even if all their games will be won 15-13, but I do love entertaining the potential of a Ben Williamson-led Rays team making things hard on the AL East.
• Ryan: I am intrigued by the White Sox catching duo, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, and even the left-for-dead Andrew Benintendi. The pitching is going to be a disaster, but Shane Smith is a bright spot. To be clear, this is a sleeper, “they might win 75 games and make for an annoying road trip in May.” But I think they’re trending up.
• John: Sacramento’s lack of selection is a sign of respect to the second-best team in the AL West. The ChiSox are indeed not a high-level club by projection, but they are mostly made up of young players who’ve been blocked elsewhere or only gotten a first or sparing taste of big league play. 
• Ezra: Dread it, run from it, the Guardians arrive (in the playoffs) all the same. 
• Nick T: Fangraphs is projecting the Guardians for 76 wins? Now I’m not gambling man, but that doesn’t mean I don’t know an easy over when I see one.

NL West: Dodgers (17)

Crowd: Dodgers (95.1%)

• Zach: The Dodgers have assembled a very good baseball team.
• Eric: Huge, if true.
• Ryan: This will be closer than people think? Their pitching could be a disaster with all of their bandaged starters. Their lineup is aging quickly, too. I expect something closer to last year’s win total.
• John: I agree with Ryan. L.A. has also made no secret that they attempt to manage their rotation to be healthy for the playoffs – a near-disaster last year as they were forced into the best-of-three Wild Card round. Yes, they won and exposed Milwaukee and upset the Phillies to take another title, but this is not fait accompli. 
• Max: I hope you are right, but I unfortunately think you are wrong. The NL West has little to no pitching outside of the Dodgers staff, regardless of how poorly they seem to be able to manage injury. Logan Webb is great, but Nick Pivetta is the second best starting pitcher in this division that’s not based out of LA, and that is Not Great for the chances of anyone dethroning the reigning champs.
• Nick T: Two things can be true. The Dodgers ARE aging, but they also did more to improve this offseason than the rest of the division. Adding Kyle Tucker will kinda do that by default. Is the unanimous vote potentially disrespectful to other teams in this division? Not really. If you want to compete with the Dodgers, you have to spend like the Dodgers. Until then, I’ll write their name atop this division in Sharpie for the foreseeable future.

NL Central: TIE – Brewers (8), Cubs (8)

Pirates (1)
Crowd: Cubs (58.8%)

• Kate: I picked the Cubs but I see how this one is close. I think the Cubs are further along with the on-field product but I think the Brewers are the better organization, if that makes sense?
• Ryan: 100% agree with Kate’s assessment but lean towards org quality, assuming they know something about their guys the projections don’t see.
• Max: The Brewers are always built to win in the regular season. Tons of quality depth and elite organizational know-how. I thought they had a weird offseason, but they kind of seem inevitable in a relatively weak division.
• Nick T: I doubted the Brewers last year. Have I been wrong before? No, it’s literally never happened. It’s going to take a while to recover from this.

NL East: Mets (9)

Phillies (8)
Crowd: Mets, 47.5%

• Isabelle: I’ve been Phillies-pilled since Brad Hand joined their bullpen, but I think some combination of the clubhouse culture and general refusal to make substantial off-season upgrades is going to make it a rough season for the defending division champs.
• Ryan: Sometimes I forget just how good the Phillies pitching is when healthy, and I refuse to pick the Mets. 
• Ezra: ITS ALL ABOUT THE METS BABY, LOVE THE METS, LETS GO METS.
• Zach: On the one hand, the Mets have a dynamite roster. On the other hand, they are the New York Mets.
• John: I am astonished nobody picked Atlanta. But I am not about to be part of the solution.

NL WC: Braves (9), Brewers (8), TIE – Cubs (7), Padres (7), Phillies (7)

Mets (5), Pirates (3), Giants (2), Diamondbacks (1), Marlins (1)
Crowd: Phillies (49.2%), Brewers (41.5%), Padres (41.5%)

• Isabelle: The NL Central is so boring. Sorry. Get outta October and let the coastal elites play. (That last part is a joke, please don’t yell at me or tell my sister’s boyfriend who is an ardent Cardinals fan.) (Braves, Phillies, Brewers)
• Eric: I’m here for the Pirates to somehow make a run before they lose Paul Skenes.

NL #1 Seed: Dodgers (15)

Brewers (1), Phillies (1)
Crowd: Dodgers (86.8%)

• Nicky V: Whatever. You guys want us to write something for this?
• Eric: Atomic bomb versus coughing baby type shit.

NL Sleeper Team (FG playoff odds <33.3%): Marlins (7)

Padres (5), Reds (3), Diamondbacks (1), Nationals (1)
Crowd: Padres (63.5%)

• Isabelle: Call me WBC-brained, but the Marlins are intriguing… I wouldn’t say they have the sauce yet, but they sure are getting that mise en place ready.
• Eric: I love the Marlins because they’ve because it feels like they’ve been almost good for like 12 years now.
• Kate: I am sorry, I am saying Calle No-cho to the Marlins. You are being taken in by the electric sex of Miami and their sweet, sweet uniforms. The Padres having to be a sleeper team feels undignified, but them’s the breaks of playing in a division with the Dodgers. Poor Jackson Merrill deserves better.
• Nick T: I’m going to invoke health as a reason why I think the Reds are going to be good. Don’t look at Hunter Greene! Stop that! The core lineup is the healthiest it’s been in three years, and Elly De La Cruz looked straight-up superhuman this spring.

AL Champions: Mariners (14)

Yankees (2), Blue Jays (1)
Crowd: Mariners (84.2%)

• Kate: I picked the Yankees because I predicted a Yankees-Dodgers World Series because I famously hate whimsy in any form.
• Nick T: Better to have loved and lost…
• Eric: 84% picking the Mariners to win their first pennant ever, hell yeah. It’s called manifesting, sweetie.
• Ryan: goms

NL Champions: Dodgers (12)

Mets (3), Brewers (1), Cubs (1)
Crowd: Dodgers (69.4%)

• Isabelle: At this point, I don’t even know if I fully believe anyone can unseat the Dodgers, but I’m just so catastrophically bored by them that I’m manifesting something new.
• Ryan: Thwarting a three-peat will be ever so sweet

World Series Champions: TIE – Mariners (8), Dodgers (8)

Brewers (1)
Crowd: Mariners (61.3%)

• Connor: Marinerz r00l
• Isabelle: What are predictions if not wishcasting?
• Nicky V: If not wishcasting, they’re an opportunity to mitigate: If the Mariners lose, at least I can say I was right. 
• Eric: This is honestly one of the first times ever that one could pick the Mariners as a legit WS contender and not be accused of being a complete homer, an idiot, or both.
• Ryan: goms

WS MVP: Shohei (5)

Julio (3), Muñoz (2), J. Chourio, E. Díaz, M. Garver, J. Naylor, C. Raleigh, W. Smith, Y. Yamamoto
Crowd: Julio (21.9%)

• Isabelle: Listen, if the Seattle Mariners are going to win the World Series some weird shit is going to need to happen. (Garver)
• Nick T: rhythmically banging my fists on my extremely flimsy desk WEIRD SHIT WEIRD SHIT WEIRD SHIT (Naylor)
• Max: Can’t wait to see Shohei and Co. duke it out with Mitch Garver’s team of destiny (Julio)

Awards

AL MVP: Julio (7)

Witt (4), R. Anthony, J. Caminero, A. Judge, N. Kurtz
Crowd: Julio (38.6%)

• Anders: This one feels pretty wide open. I like Nick Kurtz as a dark horse. After what he did in just 117 games last year (38 bombs, 4.6 fWAR), it’s not hard to imagine another step forward yielding a peak Vlad Jr. kind of season, especially in that tiny ballpark.
• Zach: Wow, strong disagree, Ders! I think this is quite clearly Judge’s to lose. (Nevertheless, I picked Witt.)
• Isabelle: Julioooo to the moooon
• Nicky V: I hate to say it, but damn, Witt Jr. is so good. 
• Kate: Witt Jr. is annoyingly good and I have the Royals making the playoffs led by an incandescent BWJ (and his BFF Vinnie Pasquantino) so I think he has a chance to unseat Judge.
• Eric: Judge will never win MVP again, bad karma forever for winning it over a once-in-a-generation season by a catcher. This is why he didn’t do shit in the WBC. (Julio)
• Ryan: I might have chosen Witt, but then I was asked to predict Julio’s season.

AL Cy Young: Crochet (5)

Skubal (4), Gilbert, (2), Kirby (2), Woo (2), Ragans
Crowd: Skubal (31.2%)

• Zach: I’ve picked Gilbert every year, and I’ll keep doing it until I’m right because eventually I will be.
• Isabelle: ^I believe! Even if it does then make it particularly challenging to sign him to an extension at the All-Star break.
• Kate: It me, Cole Ragans believer. Do not speak to me of his ERA.
• Eric: I was not a Woo believer last year and I looked silly because of it, so now I am a Woo guy. 
• Ryan: Did you know Tarik Skubal went to Seattle U? 

AL Rookie of the Year: McGonigle (8)

Tolle (4), Early (2), DeLauter, Valera, Yesavage
Crowd: Colt Emerson (24.3%)

• Zach: Love to see the homerism from the crowd. I suppose it’s true that most outlets rank him higher than everyone here but McGonigle (and the injured Yesavage). But he looked overmatched during Spring Training, so while I like what he’ll do in his career, I don’t think he’s a burst-onto-the-scene-as-an-All-Star-at-20-years-old guy. (Tolle)
• Connor: I failed to update my Yesavage prediction in time after he hit the IL with a shoulder impingement, but I am famously terrible at the ROY predictions (Francisco Mejía and Curtis Mead,,, hello) so I’m sticking with it.
• Eric: More like Ye-Not-Gonna-Be-Savage in 2026. (McGonigle)

NL MVP: Shohei (10)

Soto (3), Tatís (2), Griffin, Lindor
Crowd: Shohei (60.3%)

• Nicky V: I’m going all in on Konnor Griffin – he’s the real deal and is going to be the MVP and the ROTY. 
• John: At some point in his career, Juan Soto will stop being the “who’s the best player you saw who never won a MVP” and I think this is the ideal season.

NL Cy Young: Skenes (8)

Sánchez (3), Yamamoto (2), J. Luzardo, E. Pérez, Webb
Crowd: Skenes (65.2%)

• Kate: I picked Yamamoto just because it’s so boring to pick Skenes over and over again, and it fits my narrative of the Dodgers winning the World Series.
• Ryan: I hope it’s anyone else, but I do not dare guess.
• John: #ForeverGiantWebb

NL Rookie of the Year: Griffin (8)

McLean (5), Stewart (2), Painter, Wetherholt
Crowd: Griffin (24.0%)

• Isabelle: The Mc’s have ROY locked on both sides. Especially for the Mets to fulfill my predictions, they’re going to need a deGrom 2.0 type of experience from McLean.
• Nicky V: Seriously, have you ever seen the guy? Griffin is an absolute freak. 
• Ryan: I’m reluctant to say anything nice about the Mets, but I will say th-
• John: Sue me, I like a Phillies pitcher, it’s actually a thing they’ve been good at lately.
• Max: Sal Stewart in Cincinnati’s baby park is going to hit one billion home runs
• Nick T: I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I drafted JJ Wetherholt in all of my fantasy leagues this year. He’s on the Cardinals Opening Day roster and while games played hasn’t exactly been a prerequisite for recent seasons, a steady-eddy infielder feels like a safe pick. 

Miscellaneous

Mariners Wins: Median – 93

High – 98 (Ryan), Low – 88 (Gotty)
Crowd: Median – 93

• Zach: I think the Mariners are better than 90 wins on paper. I just also think the Mariners have only very rarely been both lucky and good in the same year. I still have them as AL Champs, but I don’t think we’ll get a wire-to-wire magic carpet ride.
• Nicky V: At 91, I am on the same page as Zach. We’ll get unlucky for sure. 
• Ryan: goms
• John: PECOTA has them at 93-94. Just for our level-setting.

Julio fWAR: Median – 6.9

High – 10.3 (Ryan), Low – 5.5 (Matthew Roberson)
Crowd: Median – 7.0

• Ryan: This is it. This is the year. This is the one you will never, ever forget. 
• Isabelle: It doesn’t need to be his career year, but if the Mariners are winning (or even just going!) to the World Series, you bet your butt Julio is going to be on fire.
• Eric: Nice.

M’s Pitching fWAR Leader: Woo (8)

Kirby (5), Gilbert (3)
Crowd: Woo (48.0%)

• Zach: I really think Woo has maxed out, quality-wise. And even in the healthiest season of his career, last year, he still missed time. I voted Gilbert, who’s only ever hit the IL once
• Nicky V: Naur. Woo has more in the tank, he can continue to improve the breaking stuff or his change-up to unlock that last level. And, he will stay healthy! I swear!!
• Kate: As the resident Old, I would like to retroactively and honorarily pick Luis Castillo. I don’t actually think he will be the fWAR leader, but I don’t think we ever appreciated Castillo enough last year for literally being the Rock of the rotation, consistently making his starts while everyone else went through whatever they were going through. We love a millennial hustle-coded work ethic.
• Eric: Big Woo guy, always have been.
• Ryan: Please one of these guys take the step finally I don’t care who, but I think it’ll be Gilbert.

Highest WPA among Bazardo, Brash, Ferrer, Speier: TIE – Brash (7), Ferrer (7)

Speier (2), Bazardo
Crowd: Brash (54.7%)

• Zach: If I’m known for anything, it’s being the preeminent Gabe Guy, a personal brand I take enormous pride in. But for this question, I went with Brash, for two reasons. First, if anything happens to Muñoz, then Brash will get the save opportunities and the chance to eat up the WPA—Muñoz isn’t an option here not because he’s better, but because as the closer, he’s structurally more likely to accrue WPA. Second, with Speier and Ferrer both being lefties, they’re tracking to split the high-leverage opportunities where Brash is the obvious choice for a righty pocket. Bazardo has a sneaky opportunity to take this category though because he’s a heavy favorite to pitch a lot of 10th innings.
• Isabelle: Relievers kill me. But I’m into Ferrer, if for nothing else than he represented a final end to the HF discourse.
• Nicky V: I see Ferrer as the most consistent of these options moving forward, with Gabe right behind him. Plus, he’s likely to pitch a lot of 8th innings. 
• Eric: There’s one guy I trust when the game is on the line or there’s a huge rush at Waffle House and that guy is Gabe Speier.

More MLB PAs, Emerson or Young: Young (16)

Emerson (1) (Eric)
Crowd: Young (86.7%)

• Kate: Easy pickings when you see how Young has turned it on later this spring. Yadda yadda spring doesn’t matter but the improvements Young made over the off-season absolutely do. His defense is much better and he’s been hitting the tar out of the baseball consistently. My enemies-to-lover-of-Cole-Young arc surprises even me but I’d make some bold predictions about him if anything about Cole Young could possibly engender anything “bold.”
• Ryan: I think Young is the next Big Deal. 

Cal Raleigh HR: Median – 45

High – 56 (Evan), Low – 37 (Matthew)
Crowd: Median – 45

• Isabelle: He’ll have a 2021 Salvy-style year that will still be exceptionally good for a catcher, it will just pale in comparison to last year’s insanity. (41)
• Nicky V: I said 43, but in hindsight I might go more like 38-40. There’s a reason only seven catchers have ever done 40. Cal will consistently go for 35-45 in the next few years, but thinking we’ll see over that regularly is unlikely given the demands of the position.
• Ryan: I think he’s going to draw a lot of walks this year and still be very good.  (38)

Josh Naylor SB: Median – 20

High – 40 (Eric), Low – 9 (Jake)
Crowd: Median – 23

• Isabelle: Powered by Dad Strength and the security of a long-term contract, Naylz is bagging 20+ easy (20)
• Zach: See now you’ve got me rooting against him just because of my hatred for Dad Strength as a cultural concept. (22)
• Eric: Dad Strength is a myth perpetuated by Big Baby to further scam you into having kids. I’m in the worst shape of my life. Naylor, however, is going to have a generational season for a first baseman in 2026.
• Ryan: The word is out. (12)
• Ezra: Josh Naylor 20-20 season? Book it. 

Julio HR-SB: Median – 38-38

High – 50-50 (Ryan), Low – 29-34 (Matthew)
Crowd: Median – 38-33

• Zach: For years, I’ve been picking 44-44, for his jersey number. But this year, I’m ready to let Julio just be who he is without expecting another gear. This time five years ago, I was hoping for A-Rod, but it’s hard to be disappointed when what I got was Jose Ramírez.
• Ryan: This might seem bold, but after Opening Day he’ll be on pace for 324 of each, so really this is kind of disappointing. 

Emerson Hancock Games Started: Median – 10

High – 24 (Ryan), Low – 4 (Nick Tucker)
Crowd: Median – 9

• Isabelle: Part of my reasoning for being low-ish on Hancock starting games this year is that I think there will be other arms to potentially spell inevitable injury stints (“Hey boo,” she coos in Dane Dunning’s general direction) (7)
• Eric: I forgot about Dane Dunning! (10)
• Ryan: I’m encouraged by the tick up in velocity we saw at the end of last season and the impressive whiff totals this Spring. Yeah we’ve seen it before in flashes, but also yeah we’ve seen it before in flashes. That’s not to say I think Hancock will eclipse even 1.5 WAR or anything, but I think he’ll prove serviceable during a regrettably long Miller absence.  (12)

M’s #1 Prospect at the end of the season: Sloan (15)

Anderson, Montes
Crowd: Sloan (44.0%)

• Zach: I’m on this hype train with zero brakes. I think when the season ends, Sloan will not just be the Mariners’ #1 prospect, but the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball. That fastball is bananas and it’s not even his best pitch.
• Nicky V: Sloan will be a top-10 prospect in baseball this time next year. 
• Kate: If you haven’t yet, go watch the Spring Breakout game and watch Sloan’s performance. He absolutely stifled the best farm system in baseball.
• John: I don’t disagree with any of this, I just also think Sloan logistically is the likeliest to remain prospect-eligible compared to Emerson, Arroyo, and even Anderson and Montes.

M’s Biggest Prospect Riser: Stevenson (5)

Dickerson (3), Sloan (3), McGraw (2), Becker, Celesten, Peters, Rijo
Crowd: Arroyo (18.4%)

• Anders: Fascinated by the #1 crowd answer not even appearing on the staff board. Perhaps we as a staff went too “deep cut” here. I think Arroyo is going to pop off this year. (Dickerson)
• Isabelle: ^re Arroyo, I think at this point it’s hard for staff, who have been exposed for many years now to John Trupin’s unrelenting Arroyo Hype Train, to envision Arroyo ascending much beyond the heights he’s already soared to. I saw Stevenson by happy accident in a college game in North Carolina last year and loved everything about the way he played, and he’s only gotten better since the draft. (Stevenson)
• Nicky V: I think defining the biggest riser is kind of difficult. Is someone who goes from 30th to 15th a bigger riser than someone who goes from 10th to 3rd? Obviously not, right? Regardless, my lone vote for Juan Rijo is based on the Mariners’ keen eye for talent in the international market and a highly-projectable profile. Get him stateside, and I think we see him up in the upper echelon, maybe top 8 or so. 
• Kate: I agree, Isabelle, I think John has been Arroyo-pilling us for so long that we as a staff don’t even register him as a riser, rather just as someone finally getting his due regard. I’m surprised by only three votes for Sloan but I guess three to one doesn’t seem like a big jump, like Nicky V pointed out. I think it’s a significant difference, though; being #1 in the Mariners system to being the best pitching prospect in baseball is a pretty steep rise, and I think that’s where he will end up. (Dickerson)
• John: I have successfully propaganda’d Arroyo and I am resting on my laurels. I’m regretting not pushing Farmelo here, but feel good with Stevenson.

M’s Biggest Prospect Faller: Montes (7)

Celesten (6), Anderson (2), Farmelo, Sloan
Crowd: Montes (33.1%)

• Isabelle: I’m so sorry but I do not believe in Celesten at this stage in his development. I have no compelling reasons or evidence and, in all likelihood may be wrong, but that’s my feel.
• Nicky V: Everyone who says Montes is dead to me. LEAVE HIM ALONE
• Kate: I am baffled by the hit Laz’s prospect stock took over the off-season when he was literally not playing baseball. I will say I don’t think he had a good spring because he’s focused on trying to prove he’s a well-rounded ballplayer and trying to cut down the strikeouts, so I’m hoping he gets back to his game soon. Also, who picked Sloan? See me in my office. (Celesten)
• Zach: My main opinion about all three of the M’s Prospect categories is that John should not be allowed to make picks in categories in which he has a hand in the outcome. Someone get the Commissioner on the phone! (Montes)
• John: What’re you gonna do, ZAM, sue me? (Montes)

Number of Mariners All-Stars: Median – 5

High – 6 (Ryan), Low – 3 (Eric and Kate)
Crowd: Median – 4

• Eric: Cal should skip the derby, Naylor wins ASG MVP, and Woo pitches a clean inning.
• Ryan: Julio, Cal, Canzone, Young, Gilbert and Muñoz? I hope that’s consistent with my other picks.

Bold Predictions

Some Mariners Bold Predictions From the LL Staff:

Michael Arroyo, starting RF by June 1 – Ders
Michael Arroyo has more PAs than Emerson, and is more productive – Nick V
Dom Canzone gets MVP votes – Ryan
Cooper Criswell accrues more WAR than any other reliever – Kate

• Nicky V: I’m happy to have this tied to Ders’ prediction, though I think it’s more likely that RF ends up as a Refsnyder and Arroyo platoon until Arroyo really takes over in August/September. I think Arroyo pops off and earns himself a neat 1.5-2 WAR, while I think Emerson gets played slower than folks might expect. Early cup of coffee and then called up back in September or so. 
• Ryan: I buy the massive leap in ability at the plate, I’m not as low on his defense as many, and they vote for like 20 guys each year. 
• I cheated because I think Criswell will earn all that in bulk with spot starts. If I was really being bold I’d say Yosver Zulueta is the first arm from Tacoma brought up.

Some Mariners Bold Predictions From the Crowd:

Dominic Canzone leads the team in home runs
Luke Raley bounces back with >4 fWAR season
Ryan Bliss starting 2B in the playoffs
Randy Arozarena is traded at the deadline
Underperformance, Jerry fired at end of season
Naylor and Julio hit for the cycle in the same month
Julio goes 40-40, wins MVP, underperforms in World Series, sucks

• Nicky V: Ya’ll are smoking something good. Or bad, depending on the prediction. But ya’ll smoking.
• Kate: I wasn’t aware “bold predictions” were supposed to leave you bleeding from the eyeballs but okay. I like the Luke Raley one and support it.
• Ryan: If I didn’t think Cole Young were going to run away with the forever job, I’d be in on the Bliss pick. Canzone I could see as well. 
• Ezra: I want my fellow Blissciples to know I see you, and I stand with you. 
• Nick T: Luke Raley with a 4 fWAR season lines up surprisingly well with my own prediction. That’s  soon-to-be ALCS MVP Luke Raley to you, dear reader.

Some MLB Bold Predictions From the LL Staff:

A’s finish second in AL West – Max
Tarik Skubal is traded at the deadline – Kate
White Sox finish over .500 – Connor
Twins lose 100+; Rockies win 70+ – Isabelle
A reporter finds indisputable evidence that MLB games are rigged due to the influence of legal online gambling, Manfred resigns in disgrace – Eric
Rangers lose 110 games, deGrom retires midseason, Seager traded to Pirates – Ryan

• Connor: I certainly don’t expect the White Sox to seriously contend, but it’s not hard to look at their shrewd offseason and intriguing young position player core headlined by Colson Montgomery – who bashed 21 homers in just 284 plate appearances in his debut season last year – and visualize a scrappy, 75-80 win team that can easily steal a series from a better team if their opponent isn’t careful. Add in a bit of outperforming their run differential, and things could be looking sunny on the South Side.
• Isabelle: I think we are wildly underrating how bad the Minnesota Twins are going to be. I am also cautiously, lightly optimistic about the Rockies crawling out from the Cave of Total Catastrophe – especially if they can get a full season out of Ezequiel Tovar, who didn’t get the WBC MVP votes but was a major catalyst in Team Venezuela’s victory.
• Kate: This wasn’t my prediction, but I had an opportunity to hang out with the awesome Sam Bradfield from Purple Row at Spring Training and she is very enthused about the new Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer. The bar is subterranean in Colorado but I do think things will start to change there for the better.
• Ryan: A man can dream.
  

Some MLB Bold Predictions From the Crowd:

Rays win 90 games and miss the playoffs
A’s make the playoffs
Astros finish last in the AL West
Naylor and Caballero tie for most stolen bases
Trout is Top 10 in MVP voting
Every division has exactly one wild card team

• Kate: Who put in the Astros one? I admire your bravery for voicing a thing I’m scared to say aloud lest I be struck down for hubris by the baseball gods and I would like to buy you a taco.
• John: The A’s elbowing the 90-win Rays out of the playoffs would make me cackle. And also rhyme with 2001. Oh boy.

The MLB season is right around the corner, and ESPN has revealed their 2026 MLB season preview with rankings and every team’s playoffs odds.

It is not surprising that they have the Los Angeles Dodgers as the best team to start the season but where they have the Pittsburgh Pirates might disappoint some fans. 

ESPN has ranked the Pirates at 22 to start the season. Pittsburgh is projected to go 81-81 on the season. They are giving a 32% chance to make the playoffs but only have 1.0% to make it to the World series. 

It’s not too surprising that the Bucs are just 22nd because of how weak the offense was last year, but I think additions like Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O’Hearn should seriously improve the bats.

Another question mark to this team is how the pitchers outside of Paul Skenes are going to do. Skenes is favored to win his second straight NL CY Young award, but he is going to need help this year. If the former Cy young winner is the only pitcher throwing at a high level, then it will be a long season for the Pirates.

The Buccos are going to need Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller to pitch really well this season so the pressure isn’t solely on Skenes.

The Cincinnati Reds are ranked at 18, but only projected to win 78 games this season. The Reds last year finished third in the National Central and snuck into the playoffs. That could be the same path Pittsburgh goes down for this season, winning around 82 games and sneaking into the playoffs which would snap their playoff drought.  

I think where the Pirates are ranked is fair because they still have a lot to prove this season. This is still a young baseball team, but a team that can turn some heads this season, especially if the offense can help out the pitching.