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Let's get this weekend off and running!

Tonight's MLB player props feature some of baseball's most exciting hitters. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Alec Burleson	Over 1.5 Total Bases	-134
Yordan Alvarez	Over 1.5 Total Bases	-111
James Wood	Over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi	-122

Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-134)

A player I love this evening can be found in a game your father will be unable to watch, the first Apple TV broadcast of the night between the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.

I am in love with Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson tonight as he draws Royals right-hander Seth Lugo. The St. Louis slugger owns an elite rating in the current season dataset on Batters-Box and a strong rating in the default dataset. More importantly, his strong-rated trends are pretty mouthwatering.

In 40 strongly rated games:

• 1+ Hit: 75%
• 2+ Hits: 30%
• Double: 25%
• Home Run: 20%
• Over 1.5 Total Bases: 52.5%

On top of that, Burleson has been seeing the ball extremely well, posting a .357 batting average, .964 slugging percentage, and 1.364 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, he has also produced a 47.6% hard contact rate and a 28.6% barrel rate.

Lugo, on the other hand, has been getting knocked around by left-handed hitters this season. At home, he is allowing a 63.9% elevation rate, and over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced, they own a .356 xBA, .699 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA while generating 49% hard contact and an 18.4% barrel rate.

I think this is a great spot to back a hitter who is not only seeing the ball exceptionally well, but also owns nearly 90% arsenal coverage against a struggling arm.

If you are not in the juice-paying business, I would consider taking his home run and double props individually for a little more value.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-111)

Yup, our boy, Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

He finds himself in a fantastic spot this evening against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee. Alvarez not only carries an elite rating against Bibee, but he also owns 100% arsenal coverage against the entire pitch mix.

The Guardians starter has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season, and things have not improved over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced. Those hitters have produced a .460 xBA, .944 xSLG, and .461 xwOBA, while generating 45.2% hard contact, a 21.4% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 64.2% of the time.

As for Alvarez, the big fella has been on an absolute tear. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .444 batting average, .852 slugging percentage, and a 1.352 OPS, while producing nearly 60% hard contact and a 27.3% barrel rate.

At this price, it is hard for me to pass up the most dangerous hitter in baseball when he is en fuego. I would play this up to -125.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, CLEG

James Wood Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-122)

“Colby, are we really just running chalk today?”

Numbers talk. Good players are good for a reason.

James Wood is a good player, and today he is our guy as he finds himself in a strong spot against Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax. Much like Yordan Alvarez, Wood brings elite arsenal coverage, handling 87.1% of Jax’s pitch mix.

He also clears this prop 51.11% of the time, backed by a sample of 135 elite ratings, per Batters-Box.

Wood is having a career year, and the recent underlying numbers are borderline diabolical. Over his last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching, he is posting a .360 batting average, .680 slugging, and 1.113 OPS, with a 50% hard hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.

On the other hand, Jax has been allowing plenty of hard contact and high-quality contact. At home against left-handed hitters, opponents are lifting the ball nearly 71% of the time. 

Over his last 60 lefties faced, they are producing a 9.8% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 61% of the time. Those hitters also hold a .409 xBA, .591 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.

I would play this up to -130, or take the plus money on his bases.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RAYS, NATS

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The Boston Red Sox, fifth in the AL East with a 29-43 record, face the Seattle Mariners, who are first in the AL West at 39-37. Seattle is favored with a -132 moneyline compared to Boston's +111. Scheduled starting pitchers are Ranger Suarez for Boston, with a 3.21 ERA, and Bryce Miller for Seattle, with a 1.54 ERA.

How to watch Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

• Date: Friday, June 19

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET / 7:10 p.m. PT

• Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

• TV Channels: Mariners.TV, KING 5, NESN

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Boston Red Sox: 29-43 (No. 5 in AL East)

• Seattle Mariners: 39-37 (No. 1 in AL West)

Odds

• Spread: Seattle Mariners -1.5

• Moneyline: Seattle Mariners -132 (54.6%) / Boston Red Sox +111 (45.4%)

• Over/Under: 6.5

Starting pitchers

Boston Red Sox: Ranger Suarez (2-3, ERA: 3.21, K: 70, WHIP: 1.17)
Seattle Mariners: Bryce Miller (3-0, ERA: 1.54, K: 36, WHIP: 0.71)

Weather: 80°F at first pitch

Ballpark: Capacity: 47,929 | Roof: Retractable | Surface: Grass

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The weekend has arrived, as have our MLB expert picks for tonight!

We're calling for a Dodgers blowout of the Orioles, and a pitcher's duel in Arlington. 

Read on for our free MLB picks for Friday, June 19.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Neil Parker: Dodgers -1.5	+100
Joe Osborne: Padres vs. Rangers Under 7.5	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Baltimore Orioles rookie Trey Gibson brings a lackluster 6.62 xERA and 5.19 xFIP to the mound against a lineup pacing the majors in xwOBA across the past 30 days. The Los Angeles Dodgers counter with righty Roki Sasaki, and he sports a tidy 3.26 ERA at home, supported by an equally impressive 3.41 xFIP.

Additionally, the Orioles haven’t traveled well and sport a 22nd-ranked road wOBA.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: MASN, SNLA

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Padres vs. Rangers Under 7.5

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

Everything points to a low-scoring game in Texas tonight, where strong pitching should overwhelm two struggling offenses.

Jacob deGrom is in excellent form, allowing just four earned runs across his last four starts, and he’s been nearly untouchable at home with a 1.26 ERA through six outings. He draws a San Diego Padres lineup that ranks 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks.

On the other side, Randy Vasquez has been at his best on the road where he owns a 2.08 ERA, while Texas Rangers hitters rank 29th in OPS versus righties during that same two-week span and have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last six games.

San Diego’s bullpen deserves some love here too as they've been locking things down, posting a 2.28 ERA over the last two weeks.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, RSN

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

I bought a pocket radio recently. Although it’s posed a few problems (reception for my favorite station is a bit shaky), it’s been a real joy to have it. It really doesn’t offer any advantages over streaming the stations digitally, but there’s something charming about it, a tactile satisfaction in tuning it manually and hearing the voices emerge from the static. I sometimes use it to listen to baseball, of course, but I’m not yet the sort of nerd who brings his radio to the ballpark (though I will be as soon as I get around to buying earbuds that’ll work with it). That sort of appreciation for the old-fashioned and analog is growing, as anyone in the vinyl record business has noted. A similar appreciation for the joys of yesteryear is developing in baseball; it turns out that our delightfully crotchety and nostalgic sport can become even more so. You see, the bunt is back.

As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs recently noted, 2026 is the Year of the Bunt. Bunts are more common than they’ve been in years, and teams are getting an unusually large amount of value from those bunts. That’s in part the result of teams figuring out how best to deploy them. As Clemens noted, bunts with a runner on first, the other bases empty, and no outs, remain unfashionable, like Jell-O salads, but bunts in situations where you can get some real benefit from them are like vintage jeans— increasingly in demand.

The Phillies, however, have not joined this trend (all stats prior to Friday’s games). They’ve attempted just nine bunts this season, the second-least in baseball, and laid down just three of them for hits; only two teams have fewer. Contrast with the Rays, who lead baseball with a whopping 56 attempts and 21 hits. The Rays braintrust is famously savvy; if they think bunts are the future, there’s good reason to believe it (though this point may be a bit less effective for this audience, given that Phillies fans are reminded of one of the Rays’ most infamous errors in judgment every fifth game). Tampa Bay is an outlier; the median number of bunt attempts this season is 22, and the median for bunt hits is 7. Still, that puts the Phillies decidedly behind average.

The tiny number of bunts attempted so far means that any attempt to explore how good the Phillies are at bunting is going to fall prey to small sample size. Still, we can note that their success rate on bunts is 33.3%, which puts them squarely in the middle of the pack. The lion’s share of the Phillies’ bunt attempts and successes have come from Justin Crawford, who has two hits on four tries. The other bunt hit came from Brandon Marsh, in his lone try. Bryson Stott and Garrett Stubbs both tried twice, to no avail. No other Phillies have attempted to bunt.

Of the Phillies who have joined Bunt Club this year, Brandon Marsh probably shouldn’t renew his membership. He’s pretty fast (74th percentile sprint speed), and solid at bunting (7 for 22 in his career) but he’s hitting well enough that there’s probably no need for him to lay down more. Bryson Stott might want to give it a whirl, though. Unsurprisingly for someone with his above-average speed, he’s good at bunting, having turned half of the 18 bunts in play across his career into hits. In the midst of a down season at the plate (.235/.291/.393, 87 wRC+), a successful bunt here and there would help him add more to the team’s offense. The same can be said of Justin Crawford, whose blazing sprint speed (96th percentile) no doubt explains why he’s bunted more often this season than any other Phillie.

What about the Phillies who haven’t attempted any bunts so far, though? Most obviously shouldn’t try it; they’re either not fast enough, or would be better off just swinging. But there is one candidate who should perhaps ask if bunting is right for him. When you think about it, it is somewhat odd that the fastest Phillie hasn’t attempted a bunt this season. Actually, he hasn’t attempted a bunt at all since 2019. Said fastest Phil would be Trea Turner, of course. As the fastest player on the team, and the fifth-fastest in baseball this season, he’s got the legs for it (the fastest, if you were wondering, is the fittingly and marvelously named Henry Bolte, of the peripatetic Athletics). And he’s done well with bunting in the past. He’s converted 9 bunts into hits out of 15 he’s put into play. 14 of those attempts came in 2018. He had no bunts at all in the first four seasons of his career. I assume that the explanation for the sudden change in 2018 lies with a managerial change: Dave Martinez took over for Washington that year and presumably put that strategy into place. I don’t know why it was suddenly abandoned afterwards; perhaps Turner was hitting well enough that the Nats felt it wasn’t necessary to do it anymore.

But, unfortunately, he is not hitting well this season. With a .223/.274/.334 slash line, Turner has struggled mightily with the bat. Bunting isn’t going to be a solution to that: even if deployed frequently and successfully, it won’t change the larger picture at the plate. Still, Turner’s speed makes the bunt an arrow in his quiver, and thus that of the Phillies. If Trea Turner were born a few generations earlier, he’d have been bunting all the time. The fact that he was born in a bunt-shy era, though, certainly doesn’t mean he has to avoid it. You can live in the modern day and still appreciate the pastimes that are, or at least seem to be, truly past. At least that’s what I tell myself before dropping $45 on a new record.

The New York Mets’ bullpen has been a stable force for an otherwise disappointing club, and Thursday night in Philadelphia was no different.

Led by Luke Weaver’s continued scoreless inning streak and another save from Devin Williams, the bullpen backed up starter Sean Manaea to secure a 6-4 victory. The win was an example of what this bullpen is capable of when given a chance to protect a lead.

Weaver is in the midst of a career-best and MLB-leading 20-inning shutout streak that dates back to May 1. His current ERA (2.25) and WHIP (0.90) are at career lows, while the bullpen as a whole has been above league average.

Focusing almost exclusively on his fastball, changeup, and cutter, Weaver is using his changeup at a career-high rate. The result has been the lowest hard-hit and sweet-spot rates of his career.

A viral moment waiting to happen, Weaver has been the best offseason acquisition for the Mets’ front office, and he’s one of the few that hasn’t elicited groans from the Queens faithful. The bullpen is maybe the only portion of the roster that’s clearly improved over last year’s team that missed the playoffs.

At the end of New York’s brutal 12-game losing streak in April, Weaver offered perhaps the quote of the year in his postgame interview with SNY’s Steve Gelbs. A statement he’s been able to back up in resounding fashion.

“Look, people smell fear. I’m not the biggest guy in the room, but I ain’t scared of nobody,” he said. “That’s the attitude I try to take, and if I screw up, it’s on me, but at the end of the day I’m going to sleep at night, and I’m going to feel good about the effort I put in.”

As solid as Weaver has been, he might not even be the Mets’ best reliever. According to WAR, that would be Huascar Brazobán, who has done everything the coaching staff has asked of him. Opening games for struggling starters, or coming in late with runners on, Brazobán’s hard-hit rate is in the 99th percentile, even better than Weaver’s.

Williams has had some ups and downs in the closer role, including Thursday night, where he gave up a run and allowed the winning batter to the plate before notching his 11th save of the season. Another offseason addition, Williams has posted scoreless outings in 15 of his last 18 appearances.

New York has enjoyed depth beyond Weaver, Brazobán, and Williams. AJ Minter hasn’t given up a run in his first eight innings since returning from elbow surgery, while Austin Warren has a 2.63 ERA across a career-high 27.1 innings pitched. Brooks Raley had been able to stay healthy and effective despite being in his age-38 season.

The Mets can count on Weaver and the bullpen, but will they feel that way about the rest of the squad before it’s too late, if it’s not already? Getting a win in the series opener against the Phillies is helpful. Maybe take this series, go after the up-and-down Cubs, then rinse and repeat against Philadelphia at home as June winds down. It sounds simple, but it’s been so hard for this Mets squad to go on a run. If they ever do, this bullpen will be a big reason why.

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Hunter Dietz scouting report.

The 2026 is about a month away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at University of Arkansas lefthanded pitcher Hunter Dietz.

Hunter Dietz is a 6’6”, 235 lb. lefthanded pitcher who just wrapped up his junior year at the University of Arkansas. As a high schooler coming out of Calvary Christian High School in Clearwater, Florida, in 2023, he was seen as a potential top five round selection, but went undrafted due to signability issues. Dietz barely pitched his freshman and sophomore seasons due to injury issues, but was part of the Razorback rotation this year.

Dietz is a great big guy who throws his fastball in the mid-90s, touching 98. He has a cutter that touches 90 which MLB Pipeline describes as plus, and which Keith Law says is his best pitch. He also throws a slider and a curveball, which are also see as potential plus pitches. His stuff this season was described as “elite” by Baseball America and “spectacular” by MLB Pipeline.

After facing seven batters his freshman year and seven batters his sophomore year, he threw 11 innings over seven games in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out 13 batters and walking 12. This year, he logged 85 innings over 16 starts for Arkansas, with a 3.57 ERA, 131 Ks and 31 walks.

Baseball America has Dietz at #41 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Dietz at #15 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Dietz at #24 on his top 150 list. Keith Law’s rankings have Dietz at #13 on his board. Fangraphs does not have Dietz on their board. Baseball Prospectus doesn’t have Dietz on their top 30 draft board.

In the June 8 Baseball America mock draft, Carlos Collazo has Dietz going to the Red Sox at #20, and also mentions him in connection with several teams before that, including the Rangers. The BA staff draft on June 15 has Dietz going to the Phillies at #36. Jim Callis’s June 4 mock draft has Dietz at #23 to the Cubs. Jonathan Mayo’s June 11 mock draft has Dietz to Boston at #20. Jim Callis’s June 18 mock draft has Dietz going to the Brewers at #25, but mentions him as a possibility as high as the Rockies at #10. Keith Law’s May mock draft has Dietz going to the Marlins at #14. Law’s June 10 mock draft also has the Marlins at #14 taking Dietz. Kiley McDaniel’s May 29 mock draft has Dietz going to the Kansas City Royals at #30. Kiley McDaniel’s June 18 mock draft does not include Dietz.

As you can see, there’s a big spread in where folks have Dietz ranked and where they see him going. He was referenced as a possibility in the back half of the top ten in a couple of the mock drafts, while other mocks, as you can see, don’t have him in the first round at all.

In what has been a recurring theme with our profiles so far, if Dietz had been healthy during his college career, he’d probably be off the board when the Rangers are picking. The lack of track record and the injury history is worrisome, and, as with several others, what the medicals show when he’s at the Combine will be significant.

Dietz has the build, stuff and repertoire to be a mid-rotation starter, and possibly better if he continues to tick up. His workload would need to be managed early on as a professional, and the injury risk is real, but the upside he offers would make him an intriguing gamble at 16.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Justin Lebron

Cameron Flukey

Derek Curiel

Moisés Ballesteros had an excellent start to his 2026 season, serving mostly as the Cubs designated hitter. Over his first 25 games this year, “Mo Baller” batted .387/.435/.710 (24-for-62) with five doubles, five home runs, 16 RBI and 12 runs scored.

Unfortunately, he then went into an extended slump. Since that great start he’s batting just .128/.217/.170 (12-for-94) with one home run and 24 strikeouts in 34 games.

The Cubs quietly optioned Ballesteros to Triple-A Iowa on Thursday’s off day, per the team’s transactions page.

To replace Ballesteros on the 26-man active roster, outfielder Justin Dean was recalled from Iowa Friday.

Dean is 29 and a career minor leaguer who played in 18 regular season games for the Dodgers last year, mostly as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner (only two plate appearances). He also played in 13 games for the Dodgers in last year’s postseason, all as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement.

You might recall this play from Game 6 of the 2025 World Series [VIDEO].

That’s Dean in center field for the Dodgers, putting his arms up to indicate the ball hit by Addison Barger of the Blue Jays was stuck in the wall. That prevented Toronto from scoring a run on that play, and the Dodgers eventually won the game (and the World Series).

Dean wore uniform No. 1 for the Cubs in Spring Training this year and I assume he’ll continue to wear it when he makes his Cubs debut. Oddly enough, if he plays this weekend, that Cubs debut will be against the Blue Jays.

As for Ballesteros, he absolutely has the talent to hit at the major league level. The league appears to have adjusted to him and now he’ll have to make adjustments himself. I believe he’ll do so and will be back at some point later this season.

As always, we await developments.

This week’s MLB Reacts question may well feature a classic case of striking while the iron is hot. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll look back on it later as an example of being irrationally exuberant at precisely the wrong time.

Either way, this week we got some pretty definitive results!

On Tuesday, we laid out the case that the projected roster of the Cincinnati Reds in 2027 sure looked like it could use a thumper, a big bat capable of playing corner infield defense given the holes existing both on their roster as-is as well as on the farm behind it. We also highlighted that in Eugenio Suárez, they’ve already got a franchise icon who is capable of providing just about all of that, whose mutual option for next year could maybe be reworked into a contract for the 2027 season.

Of course, we also asked that the morning after Geno socked a pair of homers – one a grand slam – while driving in 6 runs in a 12-0 rout of the New York Mets. The timing seemed impeccable for some classic Geno love, and that’s precisely what happened.

70% of respondents thought bringing back Geno for the 2027 was a good idea!

In the two games since that two-homer night, Geno has gone 0 for 8 with 5 Ks. He’s hitting .212/.274/.376 on the season (a .651 OPS), with just 7 homers and 25 RBI through 47 games played. Baseball Reference values him at -0.5 bWAR, and FanGraphs concurs (-0.5 fWAR), and his 35th birthday is almost exactly one month away.

Perhaps we’d get a markedly different result here if we’d asked on just about any other day of the 2026 season. But this week, after Monday’s game, it’s clear that Geno once again endeared himself to the Cincinnati Reds faithful, who wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the uniform again next year.

MLB Reacts is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Writer error (yeah, Brett’s wearing this one) prevented the issuance of our customary White Sox question this week (it concerned the area on the roster to strengthen at the trade deadline), so we’ll table it for a week from now. But that doesn’t mean you didn’t get your national surveys this week, with some fun questions to weigh in on!

The first national question … was a bummer. But timely, given Rob Manfred’s announcement on Thursday that MLB owners would seek to slash the MLB draft to 12 rounds (and along with it the bonus pool) and instituting an international draft as well. Just as the White Sox are getting back to winning, ominous labor issues loom over the game. A majority — but frankly, not a big enough majority — anticipated pinning the blame on ownership, which is (always) the correct answer. Presumably, a South Side fan base voted anti-owner at a clip much bigger than 58%:

The second national question was much more fun, albeit predictable. It’s not looking good — nor should it — for the American League this year:

Bless you crazies who tabbed the White Sox to go all the way. You gotta figure that Every Single One of the White Sox support votes came from this very site. STUFF THE BALLOT BOX BABY!

Did you miss out on this round of questions? No worry, sign up here to participate in our weekly emailed surveys, and have your White Sox voice be heard!

This week’s Reacts is brought to you by FanDuel.

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The St. Louis Cardinals are small road favorites in Kansas City, priced -120 on the moneyline.

My Cardinals vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the Redbirds to come out on top in a high-scoring affair on Friday, June 19.

Who will win Cardinals vs Royals today: Cardinals moneyline (-120)

Neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence — both have red flags that suggest regression is coming — so I’ll defer to the offenses and bullpens, where the St. Louis Cardinals look better.

They sit 14th in SLG and 13th in runs, while the Kansas City Royals rank outside the Top 20 in both categories.

The Cardinals are 19th in bullpen FIP while the Royals are 29th, giving them a pitching advantage after the first handful of innings.

I think the Cardinals deserve to be bigger favorites, and would back them on the moneyline up to -130.

COVERS INTEL:Seth Lugo has posted a 42.6% hard hit rate over the last 30 days, fifth-highest among today's projected starters.

Cardinals vs Royals Over/Under pick: Over 9 (-115)

Seth Lugo is sporting a 3.86 ERA despite a 5.30 xERA. He has gotten much better results than deserved, and the Cardinals are capable of bringing him back down to earth.

They sit 10th in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching this month and will benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly park.

The alarm bells are ringing for Michael McGreevy, whose 2.99 ERA masks that he ranks in the 10th percentile with a 5.58 xERA.

Kansas City ranks sixth in wOBA against righties in June and has performed better at home all year.

Play the Over to -130.

Cardinals vs Royals weather

Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with slight winds blowing out. The bats will see a small boost.

Cardinals vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals -120 | Royals +100
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+140) | Royals +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)

Cardinals vs Royals trend

St. Louis has hit the team total Over in 24 of its last 35 away games (+11.45 units, 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Royals.

How to watch Cardinals vs Royals and game info

Cardinals vs Royals latest injuries

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