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In mid-May, I went to a lovely afternoon game against the Padres. With a bowl of curry katsu from Tamari Bar and garlic fries in lap, surely, I thought, nothing could ruin such a pleasant day.

I was right, until the bottom of the eighth inning, when Rob Refsnyder was called to pinch hit for Dominic Canzone against a lefty reliever. A pretty normal decision, given that it is his actual, literal job.

As incensed as if someone had suddenly screamed directly into his ear, the man behind spent the next two minutes screaming directly directly into my ear. “You fucking suck! Rob Refsnyder, you fucking suck! Fuck you! Dan Wilson, are you fucking stupid? You’re worthless!” Never mind that Dan Wilson didn’t make the call, as he was ejected mid-way through the game. Never mind that we were only about 10 rows back from the field and not too far from the batters box, so his words were likely pretty audible.

On that day, Megan and I decided we were going to be big Rob Refsnyder fans. It’s been fun to root for a fellow Asian American and average height king! So, it brings me no joy whatsoever to say that the Refsnyder Era may have run its course. Like the Chicxulub impactor came for the Mesozoic and the dinosaurs, a knee injury and regression to the mean has come for Good Refsnyder.

A situation like this (a painfully underperforming, aging veteran signed to a $6m contract) always threatens to bring out the masses that howl for Jerry Dipoto’s head and that we need to fire Scott Servais NOW to turn this team around!! But, in fairness, criticism of the signing is in order.

True, Refsnyder had the 8th-highest OPS against LHP from 2022-2025 (min 500 PA), ahead of Mookie Betts and right behind Ketel Marte and Jose Altuve, good for a wRC+ of 155 during that time. However, it is also true that over that same time period, he ran a .377 BABIP against lefties and a .348 BABIP against righties. His career BABIP sits around .297, perfectly average, not indicative of some Williams-esque BABIP skill. It doesn’t take a Szymborski to see the cliff looming ahead of the Roadrunner-ing Refsnyder.

What Dipollander couldn’t have predicted, though, was that Refsnyder would suffer a vague but nagging knee injury that would bother him all season. That, plus some bad luck (a .149 BABIP feels a bit karmically heavy-handed here) has made Refsndyer the second worst batter this season by wRC+ (min. 100 PAs), his meager 26 beating out only Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 10 (!?).

Dan Wilson has recently referenced the veteran’s struggles recently in the most Dan Wilson-y way possible – standing by his Guys, vaguely but supportively.

“Every player has been through this at some point. [Refsnyder] continues to make his adjustments…we talk about the process a lot, and the process has been good. He’s getting good pitches to hit, he’s putting the barrel to the ball and he’s hitting the ball at people, and hit the ball on the ground a little bit. But you know, he’s close, and he’s had some big hits for us throughout,” Wilson said. “It’s a matter of trial and error and trying to find the right adjustment, and there’s no question that you know Ref is doing everything he can, and you know it’s coming soon.”

Wilson is never going to talk poorly of his players to the media, as he shouldn’t! It’s what makes him a great leader. But this feels more like Wilson supporting his player as a person more than true organizational faith being placed in Refsnyder turning this around now.

So, like it was for Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton (apparently), it’s time to make a decision. With the Mariners floundering around .500 and a precipitous grasp on the mediocre AL West, the Mariners can ill-afford to keep this roster spot on cruise control. I see two reasonable options here.

1. Refsnyder takes a phantom/sort of real IL stint. This would give him some time off the knee, which could help him in the medium-term return to at least being serviceable at the plate. In case some rest doesn’t help, the Mariners can take that time to try a couple different options and see who they feel most comfortable with taking those at-bats. A little more time to see Jhonny Pereda, Patrick Wisdom, or Brennen Davis (health permitting) surely couldn’t be worse than what we’ve been seeing from Ref recently.
   
2. Skip straight to the second part of option 1 and bid farewell to one of the several and truly Good Guys of recent Mariners history.

I’m inclined to go with option 1 here, as it gives the Mariners some time to kick the can down the road, which typically is a good thing – the more information you can gather before making roster decisions, the better. But something’s gotta give, and with the way Refsnyder has been playing, that roster spot has gotta be given somewhere a little more productive.

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Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.

Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Shohei Ohtani	Over 1.5 total bases	-138
Jake Bauers	Over 1.5 H/R/R	-131
Kyle Stowers	Over 1.5 H/R/R	-124

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-138)

“Colby, are you backing the power of dad because Shohei Ohtani just had a child?”

What? Now I am.

We back numbers here, folks. Off-field stuff is just a cherry on top. That said, I do love the great one this evening.

The number one rated hitter on Batters-Box today happens to be the Dodgers superstar, who continues to post some of the most delectable elite-rated trends.

In 133 elite road ratings:

• Hit: 75.19%
• 2+ Hits: 33.83%
• Home Run: 28.57%
• 2+ Bases: 59.9%

The great one has been on fire offensively as of late, posting a near 70% elevation rate while producing 77% hard contact and a 31% barrel rate over his last 30 road plate appearances. Over his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he also owns a .567 wOBA.

The Minnesota Twins send out right-hander Zebby Matthews, and like many others, we are still trying to figure out what a “Zebby” is. However, that is beside the point. Matthews owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and has struggled badly against lefties. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has a 9.00 ERA and 7.01 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact, a 16% barrel rate, and a 70% elevation rate. Those hitters have produced a .350 xBA, .644 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA against him.

This will easily be one of Matthews’ biggest tests of the season, and I fully expect Ohtani to take full advantage this evening.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, SNLA

Jake Bauers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-131)

Entering today with an elite rating on Batters-Box is Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers, who has been producing so much hard contact that I had to back him in some form this evening. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has generated 77% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate against right-handed pitching. Zooming out to his last 60 plate appearances, he still holds a 73% hard contact rate and a 13.3% barrel rate, while posting a .596 slugging percentage and a .428 wOBA.

He draws Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, against whom he holds 82% arsenal coverage. At home this season, Singer owns a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP, allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Those bats have produced a .280 xBA, .527 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA.

If you are not in the juice-paying mood tonight, pairing Bauers with one of the other plays on the card sets up a strong plus-money two-leg parlay.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, BREW

Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-124)

A consistently trustworthy hitter for his HRR prop is Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers, who enters with his 36th elite rating. In his previous 35, he has cleared this prop 54% of the time. At home, in 21 elite ratings, he has homered 28.57% of the time and gone over this prop 61.9% of the time.

The Fighting Fish slugger has been on a tear over his last 10 games, generating 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 63.2% of the time. He also owns a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA in that stretch.

Stowers draws Rangers starter Kumar Rocker, against whom he has nearly 70% arsenal coverage. Rocker has consistently struggled vs left-handed hitters, who over his last 60 faced are producing 51% hard contact, a 12.2% barrel rate, and a 67% elevation rate, along with a .434 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA.

I am trusting the trends tonight, and this feels like a strong spot for Stowers. If you are not a fan of laying juice, Stowers records a hit 71% of the time when he is elite. Pair him with Bauers for plus money.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAMI, RSN

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Tonight we start a three game series with the Astros and then four games with the Rangers all at Rogers Centre. And then Bo and the Mets come to town, to dazzle us with their vocal stylings.

They are pushing the starters back a day with the rain out. We will have:

Monday: Dylan Cease

Tuesday: Shane Bieber, making his first start of the season.

Wednesday: Trey Yesavage

Thursday: Kevin Gausman

Friday: Patrick Corbin

The Astros are fourth in the AL West at 37-42, but they are 10-8 this month.

The Rangers are much the same, 37-40 and 9-9 this month.

And, apparently, newly acquired Luis Urias will not be going to Buffalo, but will join the major league team because he had an ‘upward mobility’ clause in his contract. He had a date in his contract where had to be promoted to the majors or offered to other teams. I wonder who will be leaving to make room for him. I’m sure as soon as I hit publish, that news will come out.

MLB.com has “Three Questions The Blue Jays Must Answer Before The Deadline”.

1. Who is the #5 starter after the deadline?

We have more than a month before the trade deadline, many things can happen between now and then. Hopefully, none of those things will be injuries. Patrick Corbin has the job at the moment, but he’s had a rough time in his last 5 starts, with a 6.64 ERA, average just 4 innings per starts.

Jake Bloss has started on a rehab assignment. He might be ready to join the major league team by August. And Ricky Tiedeman has just started pitching, on his way back from Tommy John. He’s going to need longer that Bloss.

I’m sure the front office will be looking to see if they can make a deal for a starting pitcher.

• 2) Do the Blue Jays have something in Keys?

He does look like a good left-handed bat. The team has an abundance of lefty bats, but Keys has 18 home runs in just 64 minor league games, mostly with New Hampshire, but he’s in Buffalo now and hasn’t slowed down, .284/.411/.595 in 15 games. He can play first and third. We’ll know they are ready to bring him up when he starts playing some second base.

• Who are the likeliest trade candidates?

See question above. When I see the beat writers talking up a minor leaguer before the deadline, I starting thinking that they are shopping him. It would take a lot to make them give up JoJo Parker. Beyond that, for the right player, they would have to be willing to trade anyone.

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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet tonight at Petco Park, with Grant Holmes struggling and Michael King looking to rebound from a rough stretch. 

While both Holmes and King haven't been great, I'm eyeing San Diego to come out on top here in my Braves vs. Padres predictions due to King's home form. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 22. 

Who will win Braves vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-107)

The Atlanta Braves have pitched well this season, but Grant Holmes has been extremely inconsistent. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.29 FIP while allowing 4.22 walks and 2.53 home runs per nine innings. The right-hander also owns a 5.39 FIP on the road and continues to struggle with both command and damage prevention.

Michael King's recent numbers are concerning, as he owns an 8.24 xERA across his previous two outings. However, the right-hander has pitched much better at Petco Park this season, holding opponents to a .216 average while posting a 3.30 ERA.

I don't expect either starter to dominate, but King has a clear opportunity to rebound at home while the San Diego Padres get to face a pitcher in Holmes who has consistently allowed traffic and home runs.

I'll play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Holmes has allowed 7.94 BB/9 over his last two starts compared to his season average of 4.19 walks per nine innings. 

Braves vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (+105)

With a modest total of just 7.5, there's value in the Over. Despite Atlanta's bullpen compiling a respectable 3.97 xERA over the last week, Grant Holmes still profiles as a pitcher who could allow three or four runs before exiting. The Padres are also squaring up the baseball lately, carrying a 41.2% hard-hit rate over their last six games.

Michael King also draws a difficult matchup against an elite Braves lineup. While Atlanta is batting just .235 over its last six games, its offensive talent is difficult to ignore against a starter who is prone to mistakes. The Padres' bullpen has also been shaky, posting a 4.22 FIP and 40.8% hard-hit rate over the last week.

There are multiple avenues for runs tonight.

I'll play this pick up to -120.

Braves vs Padres weather

First pitch temperatures are expected to be around 68°F with light 6.9 mph winds, 75.8% humidity, and no chance of precipitation. The cool marine air and minimal wind shouldn't provide much assistance to hitters, making this a fairly neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly environment.

Braves vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Braves -100 | Padres -104
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (+170) | Padres +1.5 (-178)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-104) | Under 7.5 (-108)

Braves vs Padres trend

The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.

How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info

Braves vs Padres latest injuries

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Series Timing.

The series timing is better than expected for the Diamondbacks.  Recently, the Cardinals had a 3-game losing streak (17-19 June).  Last season, they collapsed in July (8 wins, 16 losses), and this season they seem to be starting their collapse in late June. 

Let’s compare the teams.

Offense. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals averaged more runs scored per game (4.55 vs 4.28 runs per game).

Runners Left On Base. This season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.60 vs 7.27).

Defense. This season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks had the better defense (19 vs 13 OAA, 35 vs 11 DRS)

Bullpens. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals had more shutdown performances by the bullpen (77 vs 71).

Starting Pitcher Matchups. This season through 20 June, the Diamondbacks had the most quality starts (30 vs 28). In this series, if the Diamondbacks starting pitching is good, the odds are good that the Diamondbacks win at least two games of the four game series.

Cardinals Player to Watch.

JJ Wetherholt is the Cardinals’ top prospect.  In his debut season, he is playing second base.  His defense is outstanding (13 OAA).  His batting is outstanding (118 OPS+ with 10 homers).  His baserunning is outstanding (2 runs created by his baserunnning, with above-average extra bases taken and above-average stolen bases). If the season ended today, he would likely win the NL rookie-of-the-year award. 

Diamondbacks Player to Watch.

Brandon Pfaadt will return to the rotation. In the Majors, he has not started a game since April. Nevertheless, I feel positive vibes that he will return from the minors at his best. It will be a confidence booster that recently the Diamondbacks offense is on a hot streak ( 8 or more runs on 17, 19, and 20 June) and that he will face a pitcher who, in June, had an ERA over ten.

Pitching Matchups.

Monday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallente.   In June, Pallente had the better ERA (2.41 ERA vs 8.27 ERA), and Pallente had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).

This matchup is advantage Cardinals.

Tuesday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy. In June Rodriguez had the better ERA (2.86 ERA vs 6.00 ERA), and Rodriguez had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Wednesday, 4:45 PM MST.  

(TBD, possibly Brandon Pfaadt) vs Matthew Liberatore.  In March/April, prior to pitching in relief, Pfaadt started 3 games. In his fourth start, he entered the game in the third inning and pitched 6.1 innings. In those four games, his ERA was 4.70. In those 4 games, he earned one quality start. If he had started the fourth game, it would have been a second quality start. On that bases, comparing Pfaadt and Liberatore, Pfaadt had the better ERA (4.70 ERA vs 10.45 ERA), and Soroka had more quality starts (2 QS vs zero QS).  Worth noting is that my expectation is that neither pitcher will be in the game at the start of the fifth inning. That is because Pfaadt is not stretched out, and 4.1 innings was the most innings that Liberatore pitched in June.

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Thursday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Zac Gallen vs Michael McGreevy.  In June McGreevy had the better ERA (4.30 ERA vs 8.85 ERA), and McGreevy had more quality starts (3 QS vs 1 QS). Worth noting is that Gallen allowed 9 earned runs in his latest start, which makes me think that the odds are favorable that Gallen will pitch better than indicated by his June ERA.

This matchup is advantage Cardinals.

Four games and four wins. That’s the track record of today’s starter for the Dodgers, Eric Lauer, as he gets ready to face the Twins in a second straight appearance against an American League team. The Dodgers knew exactly what they were getting after acquiring Lauer a little more than a month ago, and they have produced enough offense to take advantage of his serviceable but far from spectacular performances, beating the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Rays—three teams with a record above .500.

One predictable aspect of Lauer’s game that has appeared in this short period as a Dodger is his propensity to give up long balls. The left-hander has allowed at least one home run in each of his four starts since joining the Dodgers, totaling five of them and only eight earned runs. While he’s been able to finesse his way into productive performances, if the homers keep coming, a blowup is on the horizon.

Projecting this matchup against this Twins offense, don’t be fooled by their record below .500 in an underwhelming AL Central—it is primarily a byproduct of their lousy pitching numbers. The Twins come into this matchup averaging 4.91 runs per game, the second-highest mark in the American League, trailing only the Yankees. Specifically on the subject of home runs, one name stands out: Byron Buxton. The Twins’ star center fielder has homered seven times in his last 14 games, totaling 24 on the season. Lauer and the Dodgers pitching staff as a whole have their work cut out for them, trying to contain Buxton.

Monday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Twins
• Ballpark: Target Field, Minneapolis
• Start time: 4:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

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The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets kick off a three-game set at Citi Field tonight, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the action.

My top Cubs vs. Mets predictions call for the Chicago offense to continue putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight against New York. 

Who will win Cubs vs Mets today: Cubs moneyline (-121)

The Chicago Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO, and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. 

Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts.

The Cubbies are set for success against struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga, too. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings.

I’m confident backing the Cubs moneyline to -135.

COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga has the seventh-highest whiff percentage among qualified pitchers, and the Mets have the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in June, so I don’t expect New York to keep pace with Chicago in the series opener.

Cubs vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup to do damage against Senga to pave the way to this Over. In addition to the highlighted offensive surge from the Cubbies, they’ve also gone Over their team total in 21 of their last 35away games (+6.10 units / 15% ROI).

The Mets are also ripe to cash in on statistical correction. New York ranks 23rd in BABIP with their .311 wOBA below their 12th-ranked .321 xwOBA to go along with a sixth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days.

This Over is the play to -120.

Cubs vs Mets weather

The forecast is clear with 73°F conditions, no chance of rain, and a steady 10-mph wind blowing in from left-center field.

Cubs vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -117 | Mets +113
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+138) | Mets +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-113) | Under 8.5 (+108)

Cubs vs Mets trend

The Cubs have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in eight of their last 10 games for +5.80 units and a 48% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets.

How to watch Cubs vs Mets and game info

Cubs vs Mets latest injuries

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It’s kind of hard to believe that the final West Coast swing of the season has finally arrived and the season hasn’t even hit the All-Star break yet. Whether you consider that to be a blessing (that this won’t come in August or September) or a curse (that it’s usually rough going out there no matter what time of year it is), there’s no denying that it’s coming at a bit of a weird moment for the Braves.

It sure looked like things were hitting a bit of a nadir for the Braves after they dropped consecutive series to the White Sox (understandable), the Mets (annoying) and the Giants (concerning) with the Brewers looming in the near horizon. As it turned out, the Braves proved that they’re a resilient bunch and ended up taking a dramatic series win in order to salvage the homestand and also stop the bleeding in what had been a rough stretch of games.

Now, we’re going to see that resilience get put to the test. Will the Braves keep the good times rolling out West? Or will the state of California trip up the Braves yet again? It’s time to look at what lies ahead this week for the Braves.

June 22-24: San Diego Padres

Current Record: 39-37Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 80-82

I mean, it goes without saying that obviously we’d all like to see the Braves have the lead in the ninth inning for all three games this series. If they don’t or the game goes into extras, they’re more-than-likely going to see Mason Miller and opposing hitters have not enjoyed seeing Mason Miller so far this season. He’s currently sitting on an ERA of 0.87 (22 ERA-) and a FIP of 0.33 (8 FIP-. Yes, EIGHT. League average is 100, by the way) where he’s given up 13 hits and 12 walks opposed to 61 strikeouts across 31 innings of work. That is absolutely horrifying to deal with.

However, the Padres are in the unenviable position of a relief pitcher being their best player. Heading into Sunday’s action, Mason Miller (who is not an every day player) had produced 2.0 fWAR on the season in 30 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. (who is an everyday player) has produced 1.7 fWAR. That discrepancy basically sums up how things have gone for the Padres. They’ve got some solid pitching — Adrian Morejon is also incredibly tough coming out of the bullpen, Walker Buehler has been trying to get things back on track with the Padres and Michael King has a track record of success against the Braves. Combine that with the pitcher-friendly park factor at Petco Park and we could be in for some low-scoring games during this series.

That’s also assuming that the Padres continue to scuffle at the plate, themselves. It is a little concerning that this crew has started to heat up a bit — they’ve scored at least five runs in six of their last 10 games and they’ll be facing a Braves pitching staff that (while they did stabilize a bit in the series win against the Brewers) hasn’t exactly been in shutdown mode in recent times.

Of course, it’d be lovely if Atlanta’s pitching staff did round back into form but it’s still hard to dismiss a lineup that’ll include Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets and Ty France in it. Samad Taylor has provided some exciting moments as well and then you have the ever-looming threat of Manny Machado as well. Machado has been mostly scuffling so far this season but he’s got 13 homers so he could very well just pop one over the fence at any given moment. Grant Holmes, JR Ritchie and Martín Pérez will have to be on top of things in their starts this week.

Monday, June 22 at 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tuesday, June 23 at 9:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision, Gray TV)
Wednesday, June 23 at 8:40 p.m ET (BravesVision)

June 25-27: San Francisco Giants

Current Record: 31-46 Projected Record: 74-88

The last time the Braves saw the Giants, they were busy hitting balls all around Truist Park and over the fences as well — which was surprising considering how difficult it had been for this team to hit for power on a regular basis. Whatever magic they had in Atlanta was completely lost by the time they made it to Miami to complete their East Coast swing, as the Marlins ended up sweeping them.

San Francisco hit two homers (Rafael Devers in the opener and Casey Schmitt in the middle game) over the course of those three losses — now mind you, they hit back-to-back dingers against the Braves twice across two games in one day, so you tell me what’s happening there (other than baseball being a weird sport). It’s not like the Marlins were rolling, themselves, since they had just got done dropping a series against the Phillies. I guess that’s why you play the game on the field and not on a spreadsheet!

In Cobb County, the Giants got contributions from their usual suspects like Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman but Rafael Devers also did a lot of damage as well. Obviously, keeping those guys quiet instead of letting each and every one of them run rampant at the plate will be key to Atlanta’s chances of getting some revenge in San Francisco. Bryce Eldridge might just be difficult to keep quiet at the plate no matter what, so there’s that. Either way, it’s already evident that when these guys get rolling, they can be dangerous.

The good news as far as pitching matchups go is that the Braves are going to avoid Landen Roupp and apparently everybody in Atlanta’s clubhouse should be thrilled about (probably) not seeing Robbie Ray again. The bad news is that the Braves will likely have to face Logan Webb, who has given the Braves serious trouble nearly every time he’s faced Atlanta. The lone two exceptions happened in 2023 but that was the season where the Braves were taking nearly everybody out back behind the woodshed so that appears to clearly be an exceptional case for the Braves. The rest of San Francisco’s pitching staff is vulnerable so assuming the Giants haven’t just completely figured out the Braves, Atlanta could do some damage in this series. We’ll see what happens!

Friday, June 26 at 10:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Saturday, June 27 at 9:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, June 28 at 4:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)

The Phillies’ previous opponent was expected to be a contender but is mired in last place. Now, they’ll head south to take on a Nationals team that many expected to finish in last place but instead finds itself in the mix for a playoff spot.

It seems unlikely that the Nationals will remain in that mix as the pitching staff is a weakness and their league-leading offense is being fueled by some players with a history of falling off in the second half of the season. But for now, this four-game series is shaping up to be much tougher than most would have expected when the season began.

Opposition research: C.J. Abrams

There’s a strong argument that C.J. Abrams has been the best shortstop in the National League this season. Yet if you believe the scuttlebutt around baseball, it seems like there’s still a non-zero chance that he gets traded within the next year.

Abrams, pitcher MacKenzie Gore and outfielder James Wood were the centerpieces of the Juan Soto trade a few years ago. But this past offseason brought in a regime change in Washington, and the new president of baseball operations was not as invested in those players as his predecessor. Gore was traded, and there were plenty of rumors that the other two could be moved for the right price as well.

Abrams has had his moments in the big leagues, but there have also been maturity concerns, as well as questions if his defense will eventually force him to a different position. He has also performed dramatically worse in the second halves of the season. His career second half OPS is .150 points lower than in the first half, and the split was even more pronounced in 2025 (.836 vs. .633).

With Abrams likely headed to the All-Star Game, and the Nats currently sitting above .500, it seems unlikely that Abrams will be traded this season. But if the Nats’ weak pitching catches up with them, and Abrams has another poor second half, it’s quite possible that Abrams’ name will once again be a hot one in trade rumors come October.

Either way, Abrams comes into this series hot, having hit a home run in each of his last three games.

Remembering a guy who played for both teams

For some reason, I was very high on outfielder Roger Bernadina during his brief tenure with the Phillies. The speedy outfielder spent his first five and a half years with the Nationals, never establishing himself as much more than a passable backup. In August of 2013, the Nats released him, and the Phillies gave him a look.

In hindsight, I’m not sure what enamored me of Bernadina. He batted .187 with two home runs and played solid, if unspectacular defense in centerfield. He was a free agent at season’s end, and the Phillies didn’t make much of an effort to retain him. He caught on with the Reds the following season but did little to justify my belief that the Phillies should have kept him.

Hating on the Nationals

There’s another reason that Abrams is still being mentioned in trade rumors: People don’t think the Nationals will pay him enough to stick around once he reaches free agency.

After the Nationals fluked their way to a World Series win, they decided that their success was fueled by the head of their starting rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. Strasburg had an opt-out in his deal which he exercised, and the Nats responded by giving him a seven-year extension.

Strasburg was considered a long-term injury risk, and sure enough, he got injured almost as soon as the ink had dried on that new deal. He made just eight more appearances for the team, and combined with Corbin turning into a pumpkin, the Nats were paying an extraordinary amount of money for two guys who provided a combined negative value.

It’s strange that they chose to pay Corbin and Strasburg, while deciding that offensive stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon (to be fair, they dodged a bullet on this one), and Juan Soto were not worth paying market value for. Sure, in many of those cases, they offered contract extension, but the offers almost always included a large amount of deferred money.

Deferred money can be used as a weapon for some teams (The Dodgers in particular), but for the Nationals, it just seems like a way to save some money.

Also, the Nationals’ stadium is boring, their announcers are lame, they’ve never been able to figure out a good uniform combination, and the fans still boo Bryce Harper. Get over it, guys.

With the series during the week and the Nationals doing better than expected, we probably won’t get a full Phillies takeover this time around. But with nice weather expected (aside from possible Monday rain) and schools out of session, I imagine there will still be a decent representation by Phillies fans over the next few days.

Additional thought about the season

With Andrew Painter demoted, the Phillies have yet to announce a starter for Monday’s game. It seems likely that Alan Rangel will be called up to work multiple innings, if not given the start. It would be nice if the Phillies had a promising prospect or two waiting in AAA for this situation, but unfortunately, a 28-year-old minor league journeyman is probably their best option at this point.

Rangel has made six major league appearances over the past two seasons and has a 2.57 ERA despite allowing 19 baserunners in 14 innings. Maybe he’s just got a knack for stranding runners? (We can hope, right?)

It seems like the Phillies’ offense will need to continue to hit like they have over the past two games. On Monday, they’ll face lefthander Foster Griffin who is having a successful season after spending three years in Japan. The Phillies actually hit well against a lefty start on Sunday night. Do we dare dream that they can do it two nights in a row?