The Yankees (28-20) and the Blue Jays (21-26) continue their four-game series tonight at Yankee Stadium.
New York rallied late and then held on to take Game 1 of the series last night, 7-6. Trailing 5-3 heading to the bottom of the seventh inning, Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. each belted two-run homers to put the Yankees in front 7-5. Jesus Sanchez doubled home Ernie Clement in the top of the ninth off of closer David Bednar but was stranded there as New York celebrated the win.
Tonight’s matchup features a couple of right-handers who have enjoyed consistent success this season. Toronto sends Dylan Cease, who enters the game with a 3–1 record, 2.41 ERA, and 75 strikeouts. New York counters with Will Warren, who has quietly put together a strong start of his own. Warren comes in at 5–1 with a 3.42 ERA and 59 strikeouts.
The pitching matchup sets the tone for what should be a fun game. Cease’s high‑octane fastball and sharp breaking pitches give him the ability to dominate any lineup, but the Yankees have several hitters who have handled him well in small samples—most notably Aaron Judge, who owns a .308 average and 1.104 OPS against him. On the other side, Warren’s challenge will be navigating Toronto’s right‑handed power, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has started the season hitting .500 in limited at‑bats against him.
The New York offense averages 5.09 runs per game while the Jays’ bats produce one run less per outing (4.09 runs/gm.).
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
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The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-137), Toronto Blue Jays (+114)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+144), Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)
Total: 9.0 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Pitching matchup for May 19:
Yankees: Will Warren Season Totals: 47.1 IP, 5-1, 3.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 59K, 12 BB
Blue Jays: Dylan Cease Season Totals: 52.1 IP, 3-1, 2.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 75K, 21 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Anthony Volpe is 4-7 with 3 RBIs and 2 runs scored in his last 2 games
Trent Grisham is 3-30 over his last 10 games
Austin Wells is hitting .125 in May (5-40) without an extra base hit or an RBI
Aaron Judge has not gone yard in 8 games
George Springer picked up a couple hits last night but is still just 8-47 (.170) in May
Kazuma Okamoto has struck out 6 times in his last 12 plate appearances
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are 8-15 on the road this season
The Yankees are 15-6 at home this season
The Yankees are 25-23 on the Run Line this season
The Jays are 20-27 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 22 times in Toronto games this season (22-23-2)
The OVER has cashed 21 times for the Yankees this season (21-24-3)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Yankees and the Blue Jays:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Run Line
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PHOENIX, AZ - MARCH 21: Emil Morales #96 of the Los Angeles Dodgers stands in defensive position in the third inning during the game between the Chicago White Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Camelback Ranch on Saturday, March 21, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
— Great Lakes Loons (@greatlakesloons) May 19, 2026
Morales, who turns 20 in September, joins fellow top-100 prospects Josue De Paula (start of 2025) and Eduardo Quintero (last July) as Dodgers teenagers getting promoted to Great Lakes.
Morales hit .323/.385/.570 with a 134 wRC+ and 24 extra-base hits in 36 games for Class-A Ontario, and counting his time with Rancho Cucamonga last season hit .330/.401/.560 with 26 doubles, 11 home runs, and three triples in 66 games in Class-A.
He hit home runs on both Saturday and Sunday, his final two games with the Tower Buzzers.
— Ontario Tower Buzzers (@towerbuzzers) May 17, 2026
With Ontario, Morales played 23 games at shortstop and nine at third base this season, with Joendry Vargas splitting time between shortstop and second base. Kellon Lindsey, another shortstop and the Dodgers first-round draft pick in 2024, returned from the injured list last week and played his three games at second base. This frees up time at shortstop in Class-A. Jose Izarra and Eduardo Guerrero covered the innings at shortstop for Great Lakes before Morales’ arrival.
Amid a sea of talented outfielders, Morales stands as the Dodgers’ best infielder. After early struggles last year in the Arizona Complex League, he righted the ship and continued his success at Low-A before the close of the season. That success has extended into 2026, which has seen him hit for both average and power. He might not stick at shortstop, but his bat should profile easily at any position on the diamond.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 8: Curtis Mead #45 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring a run in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on May 8, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Leonardo Fernandez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
So far this season, Curtis Mead has been the Nats most underrated hitter. The Aussie infielder has put up really impressive numbers to start the season. Mead has an .815 OPS, a 133 wRC+ and has more walks than strikeouts. Entering the season, this was seen as Mead’s last chance to prove himself, and he is taking advantage of the opportunity.
There was a time where Curtis Mead was a big time prospect. Entering 2023, he was the 33rd ranked prospect in all of baseball with a 65 grade hit tool. However, he struggled to translate his minor league production into big league success for the Rays. Eventually, Tampa traded him to the White Sox, who DFA’d Mead and traded him to the Nats for Boston Smith.
Trade summary:
Nationals get – Curtis Mead White Sox get – Boston Smith
At this point, Curtis Mead knew he had to make changes before time ran out. Mead told Federal Baseball that he attributes his early success this season to, “controlling the zone and trying to swing the bat when I think I can do damage”. The numbers bear this out as well. Last season, Mead had a 27.8% chase rate, but has dropped that to 23.2% this season. Mead’s walk rate has also gone from 5.7% to a crazy 15.8%.
For hitters with great bat to ball skills, they can sometimes fall into the trap of swinging at pitches just because they are able to hit it. As Mead is maturing as a hitter, he is learning to key in on pitches he can drive. He also told me that he thinks he is doing a better job digging into opposing pitcher scouting reports and looking at what pitch types are the ones they want hitters to chase.
By finding better pitches to hit, Mead is tapping into his power. His four home runs are already a career high. As a prospect, Mead was seen as having at least average power, but it had not translated because he was not swinging at the right pitches. Now he is, and Mead has hit some clutch home runs, most notably a two run blast against the Giants.
Last season, Mead had just 14 extra base hits in 240 at bats. This year, he has 12 in just 94 AB’s. This has been a crazy breakout, and it is really cool for the Aussie. Over the past couple years, he has been known as the guy that got traded for Cristopher Sanchez. For a while, it looked like the Rays were going to win that swap, but Sanchez blossomed into the best left handed pitcher in the National League, while Mead struggled.
Now, Mead is also having big league success. Part of the reason for that is that there is not as much pressure on him now that he has pretty much been written off. He told me that “It has been nice to just play my game and not worry about my situation as much”.
Part of that is having less pressure on him, but he also has a defined role now. Mead starts just about every game against left handed pitching, and usually comes off the bench when a lefty reliever comes in. While he has been used as a lefty killer, his splits are actually pretty similar, with his OPS being slightly higher against righties.
We saw Mead come up with a huge hit against a right handed pitcher last night. The 25 year old hit a game tying double against Tobias Myers in the 8th inning. It was a great piece of hitting, with the Aussie shooting a line drive into the right-center gap. That is the type of thing scouts expected Mead to be doing all the time when he was coming up through the minors.
It has taken a while, but it really does seem like Mead has found his footing. There are not many guys that can walk more than they strike out in the modern game, but that is exactly what Curtis Mead is doing. Playing for his former minor league manager, Blake Butera, Curtis Mead is coming into his own.
With the 2025-26 season long since in the books, let’s take a few moments to look back at the performance of each member of YOUR Marquette Golden Eagles this year. While we’re at it, we’ll also take a look back at our player previews and see how our preseason prognostications stack up with how things actually played out. We’ll run through the roster in order of total minutes played going from lowest to highest, and today we talk about a freshman who we got to see more of than maybe we expected this season……
I want to start this with what the BartTorvik.com projections say for Stevens, because we’re going to get out of pocket as to what his ceiling this season might be pretty quickly. Okay? So, listen. The Torvik algorithm says that, based on the other abilities and histories of the returning players and how the freshmen fit in around them when taking the average production of a player with the same recruiting rankings into account, that maybe we’ll see Adrien Stevens for seven minutes a game this year.
That’s rounding up on what 17% of 40 minutes is, and that’s what he’s projected to do. Seven minutes, 2.8 points, 1.2 rebounds, maybe an assist.
Think about it: He’s probably not going to be playing a lot of point guard in place of Sean Jones or Nigel James, right? So, that means he’s fighting for playing time at the 2, maybe the 3. Chase Ross is absolutely starting in one of those places, and then there’s Zaide Lowery and Damarius Owens to try to figure out the other spot. After that, there’s fellow freshmen Ian Miletic and Michael Phillips to compete with for minutes. You can see why the algorithm isn’t 100% fired up about Stevens as a major contributor here.
Now, there’s a certain amount of reason to believe that Stevens is going to play more than this season, and we’re going to talk about those reasons in the Get Excited section. I think those are valid reasons to at least believe that Stevens is going to play more than seven minutes a night. How much more? Well, we’ll have to wait and see, but…. okay, let’s just get into it, shall we?
[But the biggest freshman eye-opener was Stevens, the 6-foot-4 guard who was not afraid to mix it up defensively. He led the team in deflections over the summer, a sure way to get playing time for Smart, and also in total wins in all the drills that MU coaches track.]
Led the team. Not the freshmen, the team. Not just in deflections, but in wins in drills, however that’s counted from drill to drill.
Shaka Smart, talking to the media about what they saw from Stevens in the practice:
[“He’s got some real toughness and physicality and a great body for a freshman,” Smart said. “He can get his hands on the ball.
“He’s really done a good job, particularly in the second half of the summer, buying into the advantages for him that he can press on a daily basis. Heat on the ball. Physicality on the ball. Getting his hands on the basketball. And being someone that, even though he is a freshman, uses his body to his advantage.”]
Chase Ross, who knows a thing or two about making a steal here and there:
[“I hope Stevie don’t watch this, but I think (Stevens) can be (as good) if not better than Stevie,” Ross said. “And y’all seen what Stevie did last year.”]
Okay, so. Expecting First 30 Games Of College Basketball Adrien Stevens to instantly be better than Last 34 Games Of A 135 Game Career Stevie Mitchell is a bit much. I’m going to presume that Ross’ point was that Stevens’ ceiling is ultimately higher than Mitchell’s. Down the road. Eventually.
buuuuuuut also Stevie Mitchell had a steal rate of 3.6% as a freshman according to KenPom.com, and if he had the minutes to qualify, that would have been top 90 in the country. The way to get on the court for Shaka Smart is to play defense. It seems very clear that doing that is not going to be a problem for Adrien Stevens. The question is what his freshman year ceiling is on that end of the floor, and if he’s the guy leading the team in deflections over the summer AND Chase Ross thinks he has a brighter future than Stevie Mitchell on defense….. well. I’m very curious to see what we get from Stevens in 2025-26.
Potential Pitfalls
A whole summer’s worth of being the most pesky defender and biggest drill winner is indicative of Stevens’ abilities relative to his teammates. That’s probably a sign that things are going to work out for him. If he’s beating out the rest of the team, then that should push him towards minutes, right?
The flipside of that coin is that he’s putting up these deflection numbers and drill wins against his teammates. That’s not the competition that he has to be able to defend to actually get minutes, and the fact of the matter is that we’ve seen guys look interesting and possibly successful in the open practices/scrimmages before and then they don’t quite pan out to a notable role on the team, or even come close to what we thought was their best case scenario. Getting familiar with your teammates’ abilities and finding ways to beat them over and over again in summer practices isn’t a perfect indicator of success, and if Stevens can’t get it done against Indiana and Maryland in the third and fifth games of this coming season, it might be a minute before we see him again.
Part of the reason Shaka Smart said the things about Stevens that we listed up above is because that’s what he saw from him in his high school and club circuit games, not just what he did this summer. That should be encouraging, but until we see the rubber hit the road in November, we have to acknowledge the possibility that maybe this doesn’t quite work out this year.
As we sit here in May looking back at the 32 games of Adrien Stevens’ freshman year at Marquette, it’s easy to declare what we saw from him to be an unqualified success. That’s almost assuredly where we are going to end up when get to his season grade, but the fact of the matter is that up until the point where head coach Shaka Smart swapped Stevens into the starting lineup, he appeared to mostly just be “a freshman who was able to take on playing time right away.”
Through Marquette’s first nine games, Stevens played in all of them, landing mostly somewhere between 14 and 20 minutes with a surprise 30 minute outing in Game #9. He averaged 5.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game, and he was shooting just 32.3% from behind the three-point line. That three-point shooting was cratering his overall shooting percentage because Stevens was finishing at the rim really well — 7-for-11 on twos through nine games — but he had taken nearly three times as many shots behind the arc than inside of it. That 64% on twos wasn’t enough to make his overall shooting look better than 41%.
This was fine. Tell me in the comments if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember anyone clamoring for a lot more Adrien Stevens than we were getting at that point. Perhaps immediately at that moment as Zaide Lowery managed to go 0-for-7 in 15 minutes against Valparaiso and after three missed layups in the first two minutes of the second half, Lowery didn’t play again in that game and was, in retrospect, officially on his way out of the program. I can see why right at that exact moment, there may have been a “well, it’s time to let Stevens have all of Lowery’s minutes” thought, but it wasn’t a prevailing and insistent idea. Again, tell me if I’m wrong, but there’s nothing about Stevens’ 5/2/1/1 and 32% three-point shooting that said “yes, please, much more.” To make matters worse? Marquette’s defense was actually better with Stevens on the bench. The net differential between offense and defense was about the same with or without him, but through the first nine games, ignoring garbage time, the defense was better with Stevens on the bench. That’s not really a knock on a freshman in his first nine games, just saying what the numbers say, and if his defense was his calling card coming out of the summer workouts, that’s a problem.
And so, as Zaide Lowery’s departure from the program began, it was Stevens that benefitted. This may be because Smart and his staff couldn’t bring themselves to trust Damarius Owens at that point of the campaign as we discussed in his review. Going into the year, I would have figured that Stevens would be fighting with Lowery and Owens for minutes, and as we hit the 10th game of the season, neither of the other two guys had the backing of the coaching staff. That meant it was time to see if Stevens could hack it…. and I think it worked out pretty well.
Once Adrien Stevens became a starter, it seems like the more regular playing time helped him settle into playing Division 1 basketball. Over the final 23 games of the season, Stevens averaged 9.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. His three-point shooting went through the roof, connecting on 39% of his nearly five attempts per game the rest of the year, and in 20 games of Big East competition, he hit on nearly 42% of his tries. That made him the fifth most accurate shooter in the entire conference based on KenPom.com’s qualifying math. Stevens was still taking more than twice as many three-pointers as two-pointers, but since he was taking more twos, his shooting percentage did come down…. to 56%, and that is absolutely better than fine when mixed with nearly 40% three-point shooting. Even his 54% in BE competition was okay because anything over 50% is super when you can hit 42% of your three-pointers.
The other part about all of it is that Stevens started becoming a big impact player on both ends of the floor. For the final 23 games of the season, Marquette was +13.6 points per 100 possessions with Stevens in the game according to Hoop Explorer….. and -2.0 with him on the bench. Stevens boosted Marquette by nearly seven points per 100 trips on offense and nearly nine points per 100 possessions on defense. I don’t know if we can quite click it over to calling the defense elite with Stevens on the court as they were averaging 100.4 per 100 possessions…. but HE says that was #37 in the country. Again, that’s probably not good enough to be elite, but you’re going to win a lot of ball games as a top 40 defense.
+20.8 per 100 possessions with Stevens playing +6.4 without him
More importantly here though, Marquette was better on both ends with Stevens in the game. Good on offense — #59 in the country — but elite on defense. Just 98.4 points per 100 possessions, and that ranked #26 in the country in that stretch.
Stevens’ own stats in those games: 10.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 steals in 31.0 minutes per game. 37.7% three-point shooting, 55.6% two-point shooting.
For the final third of the season or so, Adrien Stevens had turned himself into a perfectly competent if not good Big East caliber starting guard. I don’t know if there was ever really a Light Goes On moment for him, just a “we’re going to keep trusting you to do stuff, and maybe here’s some more stuff” and he just kept on doing the stuff. You really can’t expect much more from a freshman.
BEST GAME
Adrien Stevens picked up his first KenPom.com game MVP award for Marquette’s 78-56 road win over Providence on March 4th, and it’s hard to argue with that as his best game. Season/career high 21 points on 8-for-12 shooting which including 5-for-8 from long range, four rebounds, an assist, and four steals. If you wanted to say the road win over Georgetown where he had 16 points as MU had to get through a 16 point victory over the Hoyas without Royce Parham, I’d listen to the argument. Same for his 6-for-9 three-point shooting game at home against Butler in MU’s 70-55 win that came with four rebounds, three assists, and two steals as well.
SEASON GRADE
For the first — and I presume not last! — time this season, we have to ask the question “How high is too high?”
We started out the year thinking “well, there’s obviously a way for him to earn playing time on this team, the question is how much can he actually get?” Situations that kind of had nothing really to do with Stevens popped the door open to lots of playing time even though he was already an obvious rotation guy from Day 1. Once that door popped open, Stevens went flying through it and established himself as a cornerstone of Marquette basketball for the rest of his tenure in Milwaukee. It’s possible that we’re actually underrating Stevens as a performer this season because Nigel James is over there on the other side of the room saying “hey, check this freshman year out!” and that’s not really Stevens’ fault!
I think that because Stevens landed on “obvious starter caliber guy” by the time the season ended but not any further than that, I have to pin his grade at a 9. He’s not a superstar caliber player, or at least didn’t jump off the TV screen as that this season relative to what we thought he could be this season. He definitely shot past a reasonable expectation for him in 2025-26, so I think a 9 is fair.
UNDATED: Rick Cerone of the Toronto Blue Jays poses for an action portrait. Rick Cerone played for the Toronto Blue Jays from 1977-1979. (Photo by Louis Requena/MLB via Getty Images) | MLB via Getty Images
Rick Cerone celebrates his 72nd birthday today.
Cerone was one of the original Blue Jays. Four months and one day before their inaugural game, Toronto traded for Rick and John Lowenstein, sending Rico Carty to Cleveland. The Jays had selected Carty from Cleveland in the expansion draft and reacquired him in March 1978.
Cerone appeared in the Blue Jays’ first-ever game, going 2-for-4 with a double in a snowy victory over the White Sox. He played four games that first week before being sent to AAA. Cerone returned for a game in May and rejoined the team for good in mid-August, finishing the season with a .200/.245/.270 line in 31 games.
In 1978, Cerone played 88 games, hitting .223/.284/.298 with 3 home runs while sharing catching duties with Alan Ashby. After the season, Toronto traded Ashby to the Astros, making Cerone the full-time catcher in 1979.
Cerone improved at the plate in 1979, hitting .239/.294/.358 with 7 home runs over 136 games.
Following the 1979 season, Cerone, along with Tom Underwood and Ted Wilborn, was traded to the Yankees for Chris Chambliss, Damaso Garcia, and Paul Mirabella. The Jays then sent Chambliss to the Braves for Barry Bonnell, Joey McLaughlin, and Pat Rockett. Damaso Garcia went on to play seven seasons with Toronto. Both trades proved beneficial for the Blue Jays.
Yankees catcher Thurman Munson tragically died during the 1979 season when he crashed his plane while taking flying lessons.
Cerone had an outstanding 1980 season, hitting .277/.321/.432 with 14 home runs—by far his best offensive performance—while helping the Yankees finish first in the AL East. He finished 7th in MVP voting. Rick would go on to play five seasons with the Yankees, reaching the World Series once, where they lost to the Dodgers in 1981.
After his time with the Yankees, Cerone played for the Braves, Brewers, Yankees again, Red Sox, Yankees yet again, Mets, and finally the Expos, where he became the backup to my favourite player, Gary Carter.
Cerone enjoyed an 18-year MLB career, hitting .245/.301/.343 with 59 home runs in 1,329 games. While he was never a great hitter—he had only two seasons with an OPS+ over 100—he embodied the hard-nosed catcher. Cerone was sound defensively, possessed a strong arm, and excelled at blocking the plate. My lasting memory of him is his perpetually dirty uniform.
Of all the Blue Jays who played in the team’s first game, Cerone had, by far, the best career.
After retiring, Cerone worked in broadcasting for a few years. It would be fascinating to hear his thoughts on the early days of the Blue Jays and his reaction to the trade to the Yankees. I imagine he was thrilled to join a contending team.
He has started four games against teams ranking in the Top-10 in OBP and Top-16 in walk rate. Liberatore allowed four earned runs in three of them.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a good spot to score, and it'll be difficult for the St. Louis Cardinals to keep up. Mitch Keller has allowed two runs or fewer in five of six starts against teams outside of the Top 10 in OBP.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates rank eighth in line drive rate against left-handed pitching this month.
Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (-115)
Keller has performed much worse against left-handed hitters, and the Cardinals are expected to start five, headlined by JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson.
This total should be half a run higher.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 18-14, -0.78 units
Over/Under bets: 15-16-1, -3.46 units
Pirates vs Cardinals odds
Moneyline: Pirates -110 | Cardinals -110
Run line: Pirates -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-115)
Pirates vs Cardinals trend
Pittsburgh has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 30 away games (+4.3 units, 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Pirates vs Cardinals and game info
Location
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
First pitch
7:45 p.m. ET
TV
SNP, Cardinals.TV
Pirates starting pitcher
Mitch Keller (4-2, 3.59 ERA)
Cardinals starting pitcher
Matthew Liberatore (2-2, 4.40 ERA)
Pirates vs Cardinals latest injuries
Pirates vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Coming off a 12-0 thumping, their worst loss of the year, the MLB-leading Atlanta Braves look to get back in the win column as they continue their series with the Miami Marlins.
While the books have Atlanta as the road favorite today at loanDepot Park, they’re getting just -133 moneyline odds.
That makes my Braves vs. Marlins prediction and free MLB picks pretty easy: back the visitors on Tuesday, May 19.
Who will win Braves vs Marlins today: Braves moneyline (-133)
The Atlanta Braves have just two losing streaks all year (of two and three games, respectively), so I expect them to bounce back large behind Martin Perez.
In five starts, he’s got a cool 2.25 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across 36 innings, striking out 28.
Shut out for the first time all year, baseball’s second-highest scoring team should tee off on Miami Marlins starter Braxton Garrett.
Against lefties, the Braves rank first in total hits and RBI and lead the NL in homers (20).
Moreover, when you get such a low price for the best team in baseball to win straight up against an opponent it typically handles with ease, I'll take the Atlanta moneyline every time. That's as valuable as any in-game stat to convince me to take the visitors.
Braves vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+102)
The Over has been thriving in the recent matchups, going 6-0-1 over the last seven head-to-head meetings.
Miami has seen the Over cash in six straight games, while Atlanta has gone Over the total in back-to-back contests.
Atlanta is baseball’s second-best scoring team on the road, while Miami ranks in the Top 10 at home.
The Marlins also don’t know what they’ll get out of Garrett. In his lone start this season, he was chased after just 1 1/3 innings, giving up four hits and five earned runs, while walking five. That's not a recipe for Unders, especially with baseball's best lineup looming.
Eric Rosales's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 6-6, -0.03 units
Over/Under bets: 9-2, +6.66 units
Braves vs Marlins odds
Moneyline: Braves -133 | Marlins +127
Run line: Braves -1.5 (+127) | Marlins +1.5 (-138)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Braves vs Marlins trend
Atlanta has won each of their last seven games against the Marlins following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Marlins.
How to watch Braves vs Marlins and game info
Location
LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Date
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
First pitch
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
BravesVision, Marlins.TV
Braves starting pitcher
Martin Perez (2-2, 2.25 ERA)
Marlins starting pitcher
Braxton Garrett (0-1, 33.75 ERA)
Braves vs Marlins latest injuries
Braves vs Marlins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Montreal Canadiens are moving on, but they shouldn't expect the entirety of Canadian hockey fans to be joining them.
Following a thrilling, emotional Game 7 overtime victory against the Buffalo Sabres, the Canadiens have officially punched their ticket to the Eastern Conference Final. Standing in their way are the rested and ruthless Carolina Hurricanes, with Game 1 set to puck-drop in Raleigh this Thursday.
But before the players even hit the ice, the off-ice psychological warfare has already begun.
The Hurricanes, who have built a notorious reputation for their sharp-witted and snarky social media presence, wasted no time taking to X (formerly Twitter) to roll out the welcome mat for a specific demographic: Toronto Maple Leafs fans. Knowing full well the deep-seated, historic animosity between the Leafs and Habs, Carolina openly invited displaced Toronto fans to jump on the Hurricanes’ bandwagon for the upcoming round.
It touches on a fierce, annual debate across the hockey landscape. As the lone Canadian franchise remaining in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Montreal technically carries the torch for a country that hasn't seen the Cup cross its border since the Canadiens last won it in 1993. Yet, the concept of "Canada's Team" remains highly polarized; asking a die-hard Leafs fan to cheer for Montreal is a bridge too far for most.
If Montreal wants to keep defying the odds, they certainly have history on their side. The Habs are the first NHL team to win their first two playoff series in Game 7s on the road during a single postseason since the 2014 Los Angeles Kings—a squad that famously dispatched the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks en route to a Stanley Cup championship. Furthermore, this current Montreal group is the youngest team to advance to a conference final since that legendary 1993 Canadiens roster. In an eerie statistical coincidence, both squads featured an identical average age of just 25.8.
The Montreal Canadiens are the youngest NHL team to advance to the conference final since the 1993 #habs, per @NHLPR.
But the Hurricanes are their own statistical juggernaut. Carolina has been sitting on their latest social media post for ten days, waiting out the break after a dominant sweep of the Philadelphia Flyers. They are the first team to skate to a perfect 8-0 start in the playoffs since the 1985 Edmonton Oilers, another historic powerhouse that went on to hoist Lord Stanley’s mug.
Something has to give in this series. But whether you are wearing Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge, or begrudgingly donning Hurricanes red, one thing is guaranteed: the battle on social media will be just as entertaining as the war on the ice.
LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 10: Alex Freeland #76 of the Los Angeles Dodgers bats during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Sunday, May 10, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jessie Alcheh/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Last Monday, Alex Freeland was the odd man out in the Dodgers infield when Mookie Betts was activated off the injured list. Freeland was optioned to Triple-A, but made the most of things with Oklahoma City, winning Pacific Coast League player of the week in his first week back in the minors.
The switch-hitting Freeland hit .400/.464/.920 with three home runs — one hit right-handed, two left-handed — and two triples, with three walks, eight runs scored, and 11 runs batted in in five games on the road against the Albuquerque Isotopes, a Colorado Rockies affiliate.
A shortstop by trade, Freeland has played second base and third base in his major league time with the Dodgers last year and this year. Back with Oklahoma City last week, he started three times at third base and twice at second base.
Freeland was not the only Dodgers minor leaguer to capture an award on Monday. Class-A Ontario Tower Buzzers right-hander Isaac Ayon took home California League pitcher of the week after his 10 strikeouts in five scoreless innings last Wednesday at home, allowing only one single and no walks to the San Jose Giants.
— Ontario Tower Buzzers (@towerbuzzers) May 14, 2026
Ayon, drafted out of Oregon in the 18th round in 2024, has a 2.96 ERA in seven games, including five starts for Ontario this season, with 35 strikeouts against only five walks in his 27 1/3 innings. Among all Dodgers minor league pitchers with at least 20 innings in 2026, Ayon’s 28-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate ranks third, trailing only Christian Zazueta (33 percent) for High-A Great Lakes and Ayon’s Ontario teammate Brady Smith (29.9 percent).
May 5, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Avalanche goaltender Scott Wedgewood (41) looks on during the third period against the Minnesota Wild in game two of the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
We’ve looked at the forwards and the defense; now, we’ll examine the final and, as some may argue, the most critical position for both the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights: goaltending.
Colorado Avalanche
Projected Starter: Scott Wedgewood
Projected Backup: Mackenzie Blackwood
The tandem effort of Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood powered the Avalanche to the top of the NHL for the near entirety of the NHL regular season. Still, it’s been Scott Wedgewood who has emerged as Jared Bednar’s go-to netminder for the Avs’ 2026 playoff run. Wedgewood, who’s had a storybook year as one-half of the Jennings Trophy-winning duo for Colorado, has put together an impressive, albeit small, body of work. On the eve of his first Western Conference Final as a starter, Wedgewood’s 2.21 goals against average and .914 save percentage rank seventh and sixth, respectively, among playoff goaltenders. His only blemish was the 5-1 loss in Game Three to Minnesota, which snapped a six-game consecutive win streak that stretched over a first-round sweep of the Los Angeles Kings and halfway through the second round against the Minnesota Wild.
Love this view of Scott Wedgewood after the Avalanche’s epic comeback and OT win. He didn’t allow a goal for his 44 minutes on the ice. pic.twitter.com/GcYjYAYb4S
Not bad for a goaltender who never started in a playoff game before.
The solid play of Wedgewood has limited Blackwood to relief duties to this point in the Avs playoff run. To his credit, Blackwood provided stability in a critical Game Four, stopping 19 of 22 shots to put the Avs in position to eliminate Minnesota two nights later. Unfortunately, a flaccid first period by the Avs in Game Five spelled an early exit for Blackwood. Still, a vastly improved effort by the Avs—and seven saves by the returning Wedgewood—led to the eventual knockout blow in overtime. Without Blackwood’s solid play in Minnesota, things could have played out much differently. Even though he got the hook in Game Five, his efforts in Game Four played a pivotal role in the Avs’ success in the second round.
Thanks to the Avs making quick work of their opponents, Wedgewood’s 435 minutes of game time puts him at ninth overall among playoff goaltenders. However, two other active goaltenders, Montréal’s Jakub Dobeš and Vegas’ Carter Hart (more on him later) have played more postseason minutes. Despite playing fewer games than Hart through two rounds, the reduced workload could favor Wedgewood and the Avs if this series goes the distance.
Scott Wedgewood takes the net to start the second after Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 3 goals on 13 shots 👀 pic.twitter.com/fC8qFv0wTV
— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) May 14, 2026
With only one postseason loss and an incredible comeback win to close out Minnesota, Wedgewood certainly shouldn’t be lacking in confidence heading into this series against Vegas. Wedgewood is undefeated on Ball Arena in postseason play, and both of his regular-season victories over Vegas—including another remarkable 6-5 comeback win—took place at T-Mobile Arena. Should he stumble, the Avs have the option to go to Blackwood for that opportunity to reset.
Just don’t expect the reset to last for very long.
Vegas Golden Knights
Projected Starter: Carter Hart
Projected Backup: Adin Hill
When Vegas succeeded Colorado as Stanley Cup champions in 2023, they did so off an incredible run by Adin Hill. Three years later, injuries limited Hill to twenty-seven regular-season games, and controversial free-agent signee Carter Hart has since guided Vegas into the playoffs. Hart’s signing back in October certainly raised eyebrows, but his postseason play has paid dividends for a franchise that leans into controversy rather than shying away from it.
Hart has started all twelve playoff games for Vegas and is tied with Dobeš and Carolina’s Frederik Anderson for the lead in playoff wins (8). Having defeated both Utah and Anaheim in consecutive six-game series, Hart has compiled an 8-4 record as he makes his first appearance in a Western Conference Final. His 2.37 goals against average and .917 save percentage are eighth and fifth, respectively, among playoff goaltenders. Going head-to-head by these numbers, Hart fares slightly worse than Wedgewood when it comes to GAA, but owns a slightly better save percentage.
Hart’s 322 total saves also rank second to Dobeš (363) among playoff goaltenders. While this certainly is an impressively high number, the problem is that it is an impressively high number: while Wedgewood’s 171 total saves—eighth among playoff goaltenders—can be attributed to playing fewer games through two rounds, Hart’s total also points to seeing an average of just over 29 shots per game. With Colorado averaging over 31 shots on goal per game in these playoffs, Hart will continue to stay busy in this series. Staying busy hasn’t been an issue for Hart (yet), as his 758 minutes of playing time trails only Dobeš among playoff goaltenders (858).
— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) May 15, 2026
Despite the high save volume, Hart didn’t get off to the best start in the first round. He gave up nineteen goals against Utah—including four goals in three consecutive games—compared to the six goals allowed by Wedgewood in Colorado’s first-round sweep of Los Angeles. He improved through the second round, however, limiting Anaheim to two goals or less in each of his wins. Despite allowing twelve total goals in the series against Anaheim, this figure bests both Wedgewood and Blackwood’s seventeen allowed goals against Minnesota.
Hill, who last played on April 9 (a 4-3 shootout decision over Seattle), could be pressed into service should Hart struggle against the potent Colorado offense. If Vegas is forced to roll the dice on Hill, it wouldn’t be the worst gamble to turn back to the goaltender who backstopped them to their first championship. Hill has met the pressure of the moment before, and already knows the expectations to meet that moment again.
Stepping into that moment, especially against the playoff juggernaut that is the Colorado Avalanche, isn’t for the faint-hearted.
SACRAMENTO, CA - MAY 13: J.T. Ginn #35 of the Athletics throws the ball to first base during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Athletics at Sutter Health Park on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Don Collier/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Welcome to Tuesday everyone!
We were treated to some grade-A pitching last night from young right-hander J.T. Ginn. For eight innings the 26-year-old only allowed one walk while taking a no-hitter into the ninth. We’re going to ignore what happened in the final inning from last night’s game because we can.
That performance dropped Ginn’s season ERA to a nice 2.98 through 11 games. That number alone is good for ninth-best in the American League but his dominance goes deeper than that. One must remember that Ginn didn’t even begin the season in the starting rotation, instead acting as a long man out of the bullpen for the first couple turns through the rotation. If we’re only looking at his starting appearances that number drops to 2.64 in eight starts.
Not a lot of people expected Ginn to take off quite like he has this year. In his first cup of coffee in 2024 he showed glimpses of what had the A’s so high on him. He had some bumps and bruises in his first extended action last year though, going from starter to reliever and back to starter again as a rookie. Not an easy situation for anyone to deal with, especially someone who is still trying to find their footing in the big leagues. Add on top of that Ginn allowing 17 runs in 16 innings of work this spring and no one would blame you for being caught off guard by Ginn’s ascent.
Since getting his shot he’s done what tons of pitchers in this league try and fail to accomplish: take advantage of their opportunity. Ginn could have very easily been a spot-starter had he struggled, with someone like Mason Barnett waiting in the wings for his own chance. Instead he’s relied on terrific command while keeping the ball in the ballpark. The strikeouts aren’t the name of his game as he’s instead relying on that heavy sinker to get the ground balls he wants. That’s especially useful in a hitter’s park like Sutter Health Park.
Going forward it’s good to be hopeful that Ginn has truly unlocked something and this isn’t just a hot streak. Every A’s fan was perfectly happy to let Ginn go for history tonight, pitch count be damned. That said, it may be prudent to keep a handle on his innings count going forward. Acquired in the trade that sent Chris Bassitt to New York, Ginn already has a Tommy John surgery on his ledger and he pitched a career-high 112 1/3 frames last year. He’s already departed one game earlier this year with “arm soreness”.
How high is the limit for Ginn? Scouts always believes he would, at best, settle in as a backend 4th/5th starter type but he’s making everyone rethink that calculus. And if he keeps this up he’s going to be in the rotation long-term, waiting for guys like Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold to hurry up and join him in the big league rotation.
Same time same place for tonight’s game. Have a great day A’s fans.
A’s injuries: – Denzel Clarke will continue rehab with Triple-A Las Vegas tomorrow – Jacob Wilson continues to strenghten and stabilize his shoulder. No timetable for return – Max Muncy has begun a swing progression. Still no timetable – Gunnar Hoglund shut down from throwing
Baseball America's updated top 10 A's prospects list: 1) SS Leo De Vries, 2) LHP Jamie Arnold, 3) LHP Gage Jump, 4) LHP Wei-En Lin, 5) SS Johenssy Colome, 6) OF Henry Bolte, 7) RHP Braden Nett, 8) SS Edgar Montero, 9) SS Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, 10) OF Devin Taylor
— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) May 18, 2026
Stefanic heading down to Triple-A:
Michael Stefanic has been outrighted to Triple-A Las Vegas.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - MAY 18: Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with teammate Richie Palacios #1 after hitting a three-run home run in the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field on May 18, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
You can’t really call a game in mid-May with the team still in comfortable playoff position and only two games behind the leaders a “must win,” but for vibes reasons, the Yankees sure could’ve used a victory on Monday. They got one, but it was quite the nerve-wracker.
For one, they had to come from behind, taking a lead on a Jazz Chisholm Jr. home run off the foul pole. Then after Sunday’s adventure, they still called on David Bednar for the save, but he made things as stressful as possible before getting Vladmir Guerrero Jr. — of all people — to ground out to end the game.
With the Yankees at least halting their woes for the day, let’s see if the win allowed them to gain any ground anywhere, as it’s time for today’s Rivalry Roundup.
Tampa Bay Rays (31-15) 16, Baltimore Orioles (21-27) 6
Unfortunately for the Yankees, the Rays stayed hot, as they scored early and often to crush the Orioles.
Tampa Bay took an initial lead on Ryan Vilade’s sac fly in the first inning, but they fully broke things open in the second. The Rays batted around, recording five runs on six hits and a walk. The biggest blow came on a two-run double from Johnny DeLuca, which took the lead from four to six.
Baltimore got on the board themselves after that, but the Rays, answered and then kept the offense coming. They cracked double digits by the fifth inning and ended up with 16 runs on 18 hits for the game. Both Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero had four-RBI days, with Díaz going 4-for-5, while only one Tampa Bay starter failed to reach base at least once.
On the mound, Shane McClanahan wasn’t even particularly good, allowing four runs in five innings. The Orioles’ six runs on 12 hits would be enough to win plenty of games, it just didn’t come particularly close in this one.
Other Games
Cleveland Guardians (27-22) 8, Detroit Tigers (20-28) 2: While the Tigers struck first, the Guardians slowly and surely pulled away to gain more breathing room in the AL Central. José Ramírez was, well, José Ramírez, going 3-for-4 with a walk and three RBI, including a late home run to put the game away. The Guardians also got 7.1 good innings from Slade Cecconi, who allowed only two runs on five hits.
Boston Red Sox (20-27) 3, Kansas City Royals (20-28) 1: Willson Contreras’ two-run homer led the way for Boston as they won a low-scoring game over the Royals. Sonny Gray was also solid on the mound for the Red Sox, allowing just one run in six innings, while striking out nine.
Colorado Rockies (19-29) 7, Texas Rangers (22-25) 6: The Rangers made a charge late, but they ended up falling one run short against the Rockies. Led by Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, the Rockies jumped out to a 7-3 lead through six innings. Texas chipped away at that deficit in the eighth, getting within one run, and putting the go-ahead run in scoring position, but were unable to complete the comeback.
Seattle Mariners (23-26) 6, Chicago White Sox (24-23): The Mariners cooled off the hot White Sox thanks to a strong outing from Bryan Woo. The Seattle starter allowed no runs on three hits in six innings, while a three-RBI game from recent call-up Colt Emerson, including his first major league hit/home run, allowed the M’s to win without much trouble.
SEATTLE, WA - MAY 18: Bryan Woo #22 of the Seattle Mariners pitches during the game between the Chicago White Sox and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Monday, May 18, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning! Last night’s Mariners win had just about everything: a first inning Julio homer, a wacky obstruction call in the third inning, a dominant Bryan Woo outing, and an incredible moment for Colt Emerson’s first major league hit in the form of a three-run home run.
Bryce Miller will hope to build on the momentum from the 6-1 win as he takes the mound tonight at 6:40 PM against Chicago White Sox LHP Anthony Kay.
PHOENIX, AZ - MAY 18: Members of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrate a win after the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Monday, May 18, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Brendon Baranov/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Not to be lost on Monday was a solid performance from D-backs starter Zac Gallen, who delivered his first quality start (six-plus innings, three earned runs or fewer) since April 1. That was the game when he blanked the Detroit Tigers for six innings, outdueling Tarik Skubal.
Gallen allowed two runs in the first three innings but settled down, retiring the final seven batters he faced. He only threw 81 pitches in the blowout.
Everyone got into the act with each member of the starting lineup collecting at least one hit, as the Diamondbacks won for the fourth time in their last five games.
Nolan Arenado set the tone with a grand slam as the fourth batter in the first inning, and Gabriel Moreno added a two-run shot in the fifth.
Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher A.J. Puk is scheduled to face live hitters at Salt River Fields on Tuesday, the first time he will do so since undergoing elbow surgery last summer, manager Torey Lovullo said on Monday.
Puk entered 2025 as a co-closer with Justin Martinez, and they along with starter Corbin Burnes made up the big three, so-to-speak, of key pitchers who needed season-ending elbow surgeries. Puk is ahead of Martinez (potentially August) and Burnes (July target) on their respective return timelines.
If all goes well on Tuesday, Puk could return to game action this weekend in the Arizona Complex League.
Reasons for optimism: Gallen has a 5.65 ERA in nine starts but he still has plenty of time to turn it around. The velocity and pitch movement are largely in line with his career norms and he’s still only 30, so there aren’t many physical reasons to fret too much. Even with the decline he’s shown in recent years, he’s never been this bad, and some ERA indicators (4.69 FIP, 4.51 xFIP) suggest he should be a bit better.
Reasons for concern: That aforementioned decline is hard to ignore at this point. His ERA and overall production has consistently regressed each season since his peak from 2022-23 and there are even more worrying trends this year. His strikeout rate is at a career-low 15 percent (he’s never been below 21.5 percent in a season) as is his 18.5 percent whiff rate. Until the whiffs come back, Gallen will likely continue to struggle.
Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen, in partnership with the Arizona Diamondbacks Foundation and the Barrow Women’s Board, will present a sizable donation to the Ivy Brain Tumor Center and Dr. Nader Sanai during Monday night’s pre-game festivities, the team announced in a press release.
Mike Hazen, alongside his sons John and Sam Hazen, will take the opportunity to honor late wife and mother Nicole Hazen, who tragically passed away from a brain tumor in 2022. The donation will be worth $200,000, as part of Brain Tumor Awareness night at Chase Field.
Like a modern Mount Olympus, the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s doors open only to the greatest of the greats, those remarkable ballplayers who stood out from their big league brethren the way the Greek gods towered over us mere mortals.
But for those players who didn’t put together the numbers necessary to reach Cooperstown, they no longer need worry about being forgotten by time’s cruel march forward. Enter: The Hall of Pretty Good.
Yes, in a world where social media seems hellbent on division and discord, there is one place on the internet that is a bastion of baseball positivity. It’s a place where fans and their ballplaying heroes can unite, sharing memories together in the Hall of Pretty Good’s comment section — a space traditionally reserved for only the foulest of trolls.
The incident occurred in the fifth inning after Crow-Armstrong crashed into the wall attempting to catch a fly ball off the bat of White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas. As Crow-Armstrong sat on the ground — in front of fans seated below the bleachers and near the visitors bullpen — a woman heckled him, leading to a vulgar response from the Cubs’ third-year player.
The interaction was captured by camera phones and went viral.
“I saw the cameras in my face, it’s not like I didn’t,” Crow-Armstrong said. “I’m definitely aware of the fact that it has blown up. … I am intense on the field. In a moment like that, I think I let it get away from me a little bit.”
It would be inaccurate to say that that Blake Snell saw what teammate Edwin Díaz and fellow two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal both had and decided he wanted in. Clusters of injuries, such as the wave of broken hamate bones from this spring or the more recent outbreak of loose bodies in pitchers’ elbows, are just coincidences instead of sudden fads or outbreaks. Nonetheless, like Díaz and Skubal before him, Snell will undergo surgery on Tuesday, with the expectation that he’ll return this season.
The Rangers announced that shortstop Corey Seager has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 15th, due to lower back inflammation. Infielder/outfielder Michael Helman has been recalled as the corresponding move. Prior to the official announcement, president of baseball operations Chris Young revealed the Seager news on 105.3 The Fan, per Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News and Kennedi Landry of MLB.com noted that Helman was with the club in Colorado.
It’s been a rough campaign for Seager so far. He currently has a batting line of .179/.286/.353. His defensive metrics are also notably worse than last year. He last played on Wednesday, with the back issue keeping him sidelined since then. It was reported yesterday that he had undergone an MRI and would be visiting a specialist. It appears the Rangers decided that he could use a bit more time off. Due to the backdating, he could be back in a week, though it’s unclear if that’s a realistic expectation.
Nov 9, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos answers questions from the media during the MLB GM Meetings at The Conrad Las Vegas. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
Back on October 9th of last year, an announcement came from the Atlanta Braves that may not have raised a ton of eyebrows at the time. However the effects of that move are being felt right now in a very noticeable way in the team’s farm system.
That move in question is the Braves parting ways with Paul Davis, who had been the team’s director of pitching development since 2020. Davis was there for the rise of pitchers like Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep among others who have already established themselves in the big leagues, and the likes of JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes, Jhancarlos Lara, and Owen Murphy who are now right there or just on the doorstep.
How big of an impact is this move having? Well let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the Braves full season affiliates for this year against the last few years to give you a better idea. Note that the FCL isn’t being mentioned due to the small sample size, and the DSL is yet to begin their season.
Gwinnett Stripers (Triple-A)
2021 was a team 3.72 ERA, 2022 was a 4.37 ERA, 2023 was 4.95, 2024 was 4.33, and 2025 was 4.07. Through 45 games the ERA is 4.33 this year. Note this is probably the level least effected, as a lot of these guys are more veterans than true prospects.
Columbus Clingstones (Double-A)
2025 had a 3.92 ERA, and is as far as we will go back here as the team was in Mississippi before 2025, and different park factors are at play. This year the ERA is 5.60 through 38 games, or almost 2 full runs higher than last year.
Rome Emperors (High-A)
2021 was a 3.97 ERA, as was 2022. In 2023 it was 4.09, followed by 3.47 in 2024. Last year it was 3.72. Through 39 games it is 4.82 this year, more than a full run higher than two of the five previous years and almost a full run higher than two more.
Augusta GreenJackets (Low-A)
2021 had a 5.11 ERA, which went down to 4.52 in 2022. In 2023 it was 4.41, then 4.04 in 2024. Last year it was at 3.70. Through 39 games it is 4.65 this year, which is quite a bit higher than four of the five years we have looked at.
It’s not just the affiliates that have struggled this year. In fact multiple Braves pitching prospects have seen their results go backwards as well, without many making the big leap in their development.
Jhancarlos Lara is pitching to a 9.28 ERA in Double-A and walking nearly two guys per inning through 10.2 innings. Fellow Columbus reliever Elison Joseph has also seen the walks skyrocket, while dropping nearly four off his K/9 total from the same level last year, and hasn’t looked to have the same stuff.
While it’s not an apples to apples comparison since he spent last year in Low-A and is in High-A this year, Cam Caminiti has also seemed to regress a bit. Cam is missing less bats, while giving up nearly 10 hits per nine innings pitched. Fellow top prospect Owen Murphy is in a similar boat, facing better competition this year and struggling more with his command than we had ever seen from him.
The examples there could go on and on, like Lucas Braun missing less bats. After making his big league debut last year following complete domination across the minors, Hayden Harris is walking guys at a career high rate and has 1.64 WHIP in 17.2 innings. Sixth round pick Landon Beidelschies is giving up almost two hits per inning in Low-A. Even Garrett Baumann is having more issues with his command than we’ve previously ever seen from him, leading to more hits and walks allowed than we’ve ever seen from him.
Conclusion
It may or may not have been the right call to move on from Davis after last season ended, as the pitching injuries had been an issue for the past couple of seasons for young Braves pitchers. However the changes they have made have had the opposite effect to date, and the Braves are going to need to take a really close look at this as soon as possible, in order to do something to right the ship and not cost all of these pitching prospects a year of lost development.
Note that I initially wrote this article last week, and over the last four to five games, things have gone slightly better overall. Team ERA’s have actually dropped by a little, while some of the individual pitchers have actually improved their numbers a bit – Lara, Baumann, and Cade Kuehler in particular. Still to this point, we have seen far more pitchers take a step backwards this year than forwards – really only Ethan Bagwell seems to have taken a step forward, and some of that is simply on the fact he is now healthy again after dealing with injury last season.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates rank eighth in line drive rate against left-handed pitching this month.
