After eight long years, the magic number is down to one for the Ottawa Senators.
As of Monday morning, any combination of one point gained by the Senators or single points lost by the New York Rangers and Detroit Red Wings will officially clinch Ottawa’s ticket to the postseason for the first time in eight years.
Even the most pessimistic of fans and pundits can finally breathe a sigh of relief after a three-game stretch where the Senators took down both Florida teams and outscored their opponents by a combined score of 9-1. Thanks to some hot goaltending, a few bounces, and commitment to defence, the Senators are not only virtually assured of a playoff spot, but they’re only 2 points behind the defending Cup champion Florida Panthers for 3rd place. Even Tampa in second place isn’t unreachable as the schedule winds up.
This means that there’s still plenty for the Senators to play for in the last five games, but there are also key decisions to make and scenarios to hope for. It’s been a long time since this town has had the chance to look beyond game 82.
Many pundits and fans seem to think that the Toronto Maple Leafs would provide the most favorable matchup for the Senators. I’m sure the NHL itself wants this matchup which would draw millions of eyeballs. The Leafs would have the edge on offense, but Ottawa has the superior defensive numbers and a Vezina winner compared to the Leafs’ platoon that has played well all season long but next to zero playoff experience.
All the pressure would be on the Leafs to avoid the rock-bottom scenario of losing to their smaller brother in the province. Of course, Ottawa swept the season series with the Leafs 3-0-0, which makes the Senators a pretty daunting first-round matchup for a historically fragile group at playoff time.
Regardless of the stats, do Ottawa fans really want their first playoff game on Canadian Tire Centre ice in eight years to be taken over by the fans of the blue team? Team president Cyril Leeder and his team are doing what they can to mitigate the big blue wave, but they still tend to find a way. The city and fanbase deserve a packed house, cheering loudly for the home team, a simple goal made much more complicated if the Leafs are the matchup.
The other possible opponents in Florida, Tampa Bay, and (unlikely) Washington all come with both significant challenges and championship pedigree. However, the Senators have played all of these opponents well this season and have avenues to victory against any of them.
Florida has faded down the stretch with a 3-6-1 record in their last ten games, including a shutout loss to Ottawa, and has been bitten hard by the injury bug. The Senators have played the Capitals tough all season as well, and perhaps there’s a letdown in energy now that Alex Ovechkin is the all-time NHL goals leader. The Lightning are always an intimidating opponent, but one that Ottawa has managed a 2-2 record against this season.
In other words, the playoffs are about proving you’re the best team, so it’s not in the team’s interest to get selective about which opponent the Senators will play. These teams could be just as eager to avoid the Senators as the Senators are to avoid them.
The best strategy is going into the playoffs hot, and letting the standings take care of themselves. No opponent will be an easy out, and while fans may be thrilled just by making it, it’s clear the organization has no interest in being first-round cannon fodder.
This is where Ottawa has decisions to make. Their decision to rest captain Brady Tkachuk seems to have been the wise choice as he deals with multiple injuries. Tkachuk is the team’s most terrifying weapon in the playoffs, so ensuring he’s fresh and gambling on the rest of the roster to get the necessary points has paid off. There should be no rush for Tkachuk now, and he'll likely bank even more rest and recovery time before getting back up to game speed.
What about the goaltending? Both Linus Ullmark and Anton Forsberg have been excellent over the last few games. Do you rest Ullmark up over the last few games, or do you keep him at his usual workload to keep his routine going? Given Ullmark’s injury history, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to give Forsberg two or three starts in the final five games.
Ottawa also has a much better veteran presence than in years past, but those players have significant miles on their bodies. Would it be the worst thing to rest Claude Giroux and David Perron as well? Some players, like the snakebitten Fabian Zetterlund, could use some extra ice time to try and pad their stats and confidence heading into the big dance while the older or injured players lick their wounds.
Coach Travis Green has some interesting roster decisions to make, and going into the playoffs hot while avoiding injuries is paramount. It will be fascinating to see what he does with the lineup. The panic button has been safely put away for the rest of the season, but it would be very tempting to break that "in case of emergency” glass if the Senators went into the playoffs on a losing streak.
This team has proven all season long that they approach every game one shift at a time, and there’s a composure, calmness, and professional competitiveness that’s been missing for years. Now, as they venture further into uncharted territory, it's time to see how they approach the next level.
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