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For once, the Yankees made up some ground on Tampa. New York held on to win a nailbiter in Chicago Sunday afternoon and, in Tampa, the White Sox took down the Rays, enabling the Yankees to gain a game in the AL East standings.

The combination of the Yankee win and Rays loss moves the Bronx Bombers to within 2.5 games of first place in the division. But because we can’t have nice things, the Red Sox beat the Dodgers again Sunday night, meaning they’re hanging around a mere 2.5 games back of the Yankees. Sigh. Damned Dodgers can’t do anything right.

Tampa Bay Rays (65-46) 1, Chicago White Sox (59-52) 9

The Rays and ChiSox had split the first two games of this weekend set so the winner today was walking away with the series win as well. This game was never really close. The White Sox scored twice in the first, thanks in large part to blunders by Tampa starter Griffin Jax. A Jax throwing error allowed former Yankee Andrew Benintendi to scamper home with the game’s first run. Then, a wild pitch resulted in a second run scoring. In the end, that was all the offense Chicago needed.

They weren’t done there, though. Another former Yankee, Everson Pereira, was responsible for much of the damage. In the fifth, the former highly-touted prospect clubbed a two-run double. Not finished, he followed that with a two-run round tripper in the ninth. Speaking of the ninth, the Rays managed to get off the schneid with a run in the home ninth to avoid the shutout.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (59-51) 8, Los Angeles Dodgers (69-42) 4: The rare time I (and most Yankee fans, I suspect) am cheering for the Dodgers, and they blow it. The reigning champs just got swept at home by the Red Sox, continuing the latter’s surge up the standings. Sunday, Boston jumped all over Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan, hanging five runs on him and knocking him out after 2.2 innings. From there, a balanced Boston offense took over. By the time the game came to its end, five different BoSox had driven in at least one run. Please go away, Boston.

Texas Rangers (55-57) 3, Houston Astros (58-55) 7: “Dread it, run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.” The Houston Astros are in first place in the American League West. After their win over the second-place Rangers Sunday, their lead is 2.5 games. If they are inevitable, then Yordan Alvarez is playing the part of Thanos. The hulking slugger notched four hits on the day for the ‘Stros, including three doubles, driving in a pair of runs. He’s walking almost as much as he strikes out, hitting .330, and has a 196 wRC+ in the clubhouse after today’s game. Keep an eye on him as he has a realistic shot at an MLB Triple Crown. Some fellow named Mantle was the last to do that, 70 years ago. Yordan is currently 1st in BA, 1st in HR, and 3rd in RBI (one behind 1st place).

Cleveland Guardians (57-56) 5, Arizona Diamondbacks (59-53) 0: Gavin Williams, ladies and gentlemen. Sunday, the Cleveland ace threw 5.2 innings of nigh-perfect (one hit and one walk) ball while striking out 10. I know it is 2026 and everyone strikes out everyone – I’m a Yankee fan, I’m eminently familiar with hitters whiffing. But Williams is on quite the heater. In his last five starts he has struck out: 11, 11, 11, 12, and now 10. That will do. Offensively, Patrick Bailer gave Cleveland all they needed with a solo home run in the 3rd. To be safe though, Chase DeLauter knocked in three more to give the Guards some breathing room.

Minnesota Twins (56-57) 6, Seattle Mariners (55-58) 7: The stoppable force meets the moveable object. Though to be fair to both teams, with the state of the American League right now, both are “contenders” for the third and final wild card spot. Sunday, the Twins showed serious moxie, to give them credit. Down 6-0 entering the eighth inning, the Twins plated five on a two-run home run from Trevor Larnach and a three-run shot by Royce Lewis. That set the stage for the Twinkies to complete the comeback in the ninth, which they did on a solo home run off the bat of Luke Keaschall. Alas, that was where the magic ended. In the bottom of the ninth, Colt Emerson came to the plate with the bases loaded. His single plated the game-winner and rescued Seattle from what would have been a catastrophic loss.

Today is the MLB trade deadline, and the San Francisco Giants wasted no time being active. Early in the morning, news broke that the Giants had traded All-Star second baseman to the Philadelphia Phillies for right-handed pitching prospect Ramon Marquez. The Giants are also sending right-handed reliever Caleb Kilian to Philadelphia, while getting back right-handed pitching prospect Marty Gair.

The Giants held out for a nice return for Arráez, who is in line to win the National League batting title this year, and it seems they got exactly that with Marquez. A 20-year old who signed as an international free agent last year, Marquez has wasted no time becoming one of the top prospects in the Phillies organization. In the most recent Fangraphs rankings, Marquez graded out as the team’s No. 3 prospect, and the No. 67 overall prospect in baseball.

Marquez was thoroughly dominant in Low-A this year, posting a 1.86 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in six games, with 47 strikeouts in 29 innings, and just 10 walks. That earned him a promotion to High-A, where he’s kept the performance up: in six starts at the level, the righty has a 1.50 ERA, a 1.99 FIP, and 46 strikeouts to nine walks in 30 innings. He has a high quality fastball and slider, but his money pitch is a changeup that grades out as one of the best pitches in Minor League Baseball. He should immediately slot right behind the team’s No. 4 pick in last month’s draft, Jackson Flora, as the second-best pitching prospect in the system.

As for Gair, he was Philly’s 13th-round pick in the 2023 draft. The 23-year old is a gaudy strikeout artist but struggles with command. Across 36 innings this year (33 in Low-A and three in High-A), the right-hander has 66 strikeouts and just 20 hits allowed … but has walked 22 batters. He has a 4.50 ERA and a 3.88 FIP on the season, and has worked exclusively in relief.

The Giants have been exposed this year for not having nearly enough pitching. Seen through that lens, the addition of Marquez to pair with Flora, and fellow draftees Carson Bolemon and Kaden Waechter, is a big win. Suddenly, San Francisco’s pitching pipeline looks a whole lot better than it did in June. The Giants did wonderfully at last year’s deadline, and it sure looks like they’re off to a similar start this year.

It still hurts to see Arráez leave, though. Good Giant.

Congratulations to Jack Wheeler, who has been named the #19 prospect in the 2026 LSB Midseason Community Prospect Rankings, receiving a little under one-quarter of the vote.

Our list so far:

1 — Sebastian Walcott

2 — Caden Scarborough

3 — Malcolm Moore

4 — A.J. Russell

5 — Yolfran Castillo

6 — Rafe Perich

7 — Dylan Dreiling

8 — Josh Owens

9 — Jose Corniell

10 — Dalton Pence

11 — David Davalillo

12 — Yeison Morrobel

13 — Hector Osorio

14 — Cam Cauley

15 — Seong-Jun Kim

16 — Winston Santos

17 — Paulino Santana

18 — Emiliano Teodo

19 — Jack Wheeler

Moving on…

Who is the #20 prospect in the Rangers system right now?

Cast your vote below…

Luis Castillo is no longer a Mariner, but his impact on the rotation – and the club itself – will be felt for years.

Castillo came to the Mariners in 2022 as part of a splashy trade deadline deal with the Reds, joining a staff with established veterans Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as two of the Mariners’ bright young pitching prospects, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. (For a more comprehensive look back at Castillo’s tenure, make sure to read Zach’s ode to La Piedra from yesterday.) Ray and Gonzales would move on and be replaced by other, younger faces from the Mariners’ prospect pipeline; Castillo remained, the lone veteran presence in the rotation, and one of the few veterans in a clubhouse that was getting younger and more homegrown each year.

Castillo, 33, often said that he didn’t feel that much older than the other pitchers, but they unmistakably looked at him as a role model, the unofficial leader of the rotation. And Castillo’s light didn’t just touch the starters; coming in as a big-leaguer with significant service time, already a multi-year All-Star, made him an inspiration to younger players, who saw him as someone who’d already gotten where they wanted to go. With a warm, humorous demeanor and fluency in both Spanish and English, Castillo was easy for any player in the clubhouse to approach.

“He was the vet of the staff, and everybody could always lean on him if they needed to, and he was always willing to help,” said Bryce Miller, who was especially close with Castillo (the two shared both a bone-dry sense of humor and an interest in fishing, Castillo even promising to pick Miller up in Texas on his boat for a fishing trip – “now we’ll have to line that up in the off-season,” huffed Miller). “I leaned on him a lot.”

Andrés Muñoz, who was in the midst of his first full big-league season when Castillo arrived, acknowledged the significance of having another native Spanish-speaking pitcher to bounce ideas off of, but said Castillo’s influence ran much deeper than just a shared mother tongue.

“It wasn’t only that he was a Latin player, but he had almost ten years in the big leagues,” Muñoz said pregame on Sunday after news of the trade broke. “So that tells you a lot about how much he knows about baseball and all the things he’s doing to be consistent for so many years.

My first thought was ‘follow the leader.’ For me, he is a leader, and that is why [the trade] hurts a lot.”

Every player in the clubhouse – including Castillo himself – recognizes that this is the business side of baseball, one of the prices paid for the privilege of playing the game. That doesn’t lessen the sting for his fellow pitchers, even as they’ve grown from greenhorns to more experienced big-leaguers themselves, as they’re better acquainted than anyone with the exceptional steadfastness of Luis Castillo.

“He’s the best, man,” said George Kirby postgame, coming off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Twins that would make prime La Piedra proud. “The way he carries himself every day, he always has a smile on his face. That’s something I really admire, something I wish I could do a little more often.

I always looked forward to seeing Luis any day because he always made you feel better.”

Logan Gilbert concurred with Kirby, noting that Castillo was seemingly “always in a good mood” – something borne out in his final press conference, when he entered the Mariners interview room for the last time with his customary, musical “helloooooo everybodyyyy” that was the hallmark of the start of all of his media sessions.

“I was actually talking to my wife about this on the phone last night,” said Gilbert. “It’s so rare to have somebody where the outing never dictated his mood. The game, the season, where we’re at, what’s going on – if everyone else is panicking, he’s not. Like he just knows that everything’s going to be all right somehow. There’s a lot to be said for that. That’s really rare in this game.”

It’s not surprising to hear younger pitchers talk with envy about Castillo’s steadfastness and composure. That sense of ease is a separating quality at this level; frustratingly, it’s also something that becomes more difficult to attain the more it’s grasped after.

Not that Castillo didn’t try to impart those lessons on the younger pitchers. While leading by example, he also offered specific guidance, tailored to each pitcher’s personality. He encouraged Kirby to put down his Furious George persona after a bad outing and appreciate the moment; for the hyper-cerebral Gilbert, to not think so much; for Miller, master tinkerer and lover of the pitching lab, to not change things in response to a poor outing. He provided immediate direct assessments, both verbal and nonverbal, to Muñoz, who values peer feedback.

“He would tell you the truth right away,” said Muñoz. “He wasn’t going to go around the thing. As soon as he sees something that is wrong, he’s going to tell you, and that’s what I like the most about him. He didn’t go around anything. He would just go, hey, you’re missing this, you’re doing this wrong. He saw me throw in the bullpen a lot of times and I would just have to look at him – I’d be throwing a bullpen, and miss a pitch or miss something, and I’d just look at him and I’d know he was going to tell me something. Or just by the way that he’d look at me, I already knew what I had to do. That’s the kind of leader that other pitchers need.”

Gilbert had a specific anecdote summing up Castillo’s hands-on leadership.

“I think back to – I threw a bullpen in Minnesota two years ago, probably, one of my famous freakout bullpens where it didn’t go well. I’m panicking, trying to change everything, and threw too many pitches.”

In the midst of his spiral, Gilbert described Castillo watching the bullpen from the corner of the bullpen, amused, before taking the young pitcher aside afterwards.

“He told me, first of all, like why are you doing this?,” recounted Gilbert. “He said, ‘don’t change anything, don’t think too much, and don’t try so hard.‘ And I’m like, how did he just make it that simple that quickly? It seems like such a simple thing to say, but I’ll remember that the rest of my career. That’s stuff that I actually try to live by on the mound, in my practice. He just says it at the right time. He just has the perfect awareness, perfect feel for the situation.”

The old baseball cliché is that you can’t teach feel. But that didn’t stop Luis Castillo from trying, every day, over his Mariners tenure, from living as a model of consistency on the mound and in the clubhouse to showing what that looks like in interpersonal relationships, offering his time and his talent and his wisdom to anyone who might seek it.

“That is the thing I learned the most from him,” said Muñoz. “It doesn’t matter how your outing is going, you have to stay the same. He was the perfect example for everybody. And I want to follow in his footsteps.”

“He knows how to relate to everybody,” said Gilbert. “Pitchers, hitters, American guys, Latin guys. He just related to everybody.”

“I think that’s a really rare thing to see, especially on the pitching side of things. He did more for me and other people than fans will ever realize.”

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (57-50) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land and went 5.1 innings allowing 3 runs, though he also struck out 9 and generated 20 swings and misses. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Ferreras solo home run and Delgado RBI single. The bullpen was great keeping the scored 3-2 going to the 9th. In the bottom of the 9th, Sugar Land walked it off again on a Thaiss 2 run single as they won 4-3.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .331 in Triple-A.

• Pascanel Ferreras, DH: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Shay Whitcomb, 3B: 1-for-4, SB
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 2-for-4, R, RBI
• Jake Meyers, CF: 4-for-4, R
• Matt Thaiss, C: 1-for-4, 2 RBI

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
• Kai-Wei Teng, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (WIN)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (48-54) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Hicks got the start for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 1 run over 5.1 innings. In the 7th, Leach allowed 3 runs as Frisco extended their lead. The Hooks got on the board in the 8th inning on a Janek RBI single, Call walk and Holy walk. Unfortunately that was it from the offense as the Hooks fell 4-3.

Note: Janek is hitting .471 over his last nine games.

• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 1-for-5, R
• Walker Janek, DH: 3-for-5, R, 2B, RBI, SB
• Trevor Austin, LF: 1-for-4, BB
• Jason Schiavone, C: 1-for-3, R, 2 BB, SB
• Cameron Sisneros, 1B: 1-for-2, 2 BB
• Chase Call, RF: 0-for-3, RBI, BB, SB
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-3, RBI, BB, 2 SB

• James Hicks, RHP: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 0.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (33-68) lost 11-7 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning on a Thomas solo home run. After the Drive scored 2 in the third, Powell responded with a 2 run home run. Howard got the start but struggled allowing 5 runs over 3.2 innings. Asheville reclaimed the lead in the 5th inning on a Huezo walk and Walker 3 run double. The pen struggled down the stretch allowing 6 runs and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Asheville fell 11-7.

Note: Neyens has a .877 OPS in High-A.

• Justin Thomas, RF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Xavier Neyens, DH: 1-for-3, 2 R, 2 BB
• Caden Powell, LF: 1-for-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB
• Kyle Walker, SS: 1-for-5, 2B, 3 RBI, SB
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 0-for-1, 3 BB, 2 SB
• John Garcia, C: 2-for-4, R

• Dylan Howard, RHP: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• Raimy Rodriguez, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (52-48) won 5-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the second inning on a double play and a run on a double steal. They got another run in the third on a Sierra sac fly. In the 4th, Luciano added a solo home run. Weber got the start and went 5 innings allowing 2 runs. They picked up another run in the 8th when a run scored on a throw to second base. Smith closed it out allowing 1 run over 4 innings as the Woodpeckers won 5-3.

Note: Weber has a 3.18 ERA this season.

• Waner Luciano, 3B: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB
• Juan Sierra, RF: 0-for-3, RBI
• Luis De Leon, 1B: 2-for-3, R, BB
• Carlos Cauro, C: 1-for-2, R, 2 BB, SB

• Charlie Weber, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)
• Aubrey Smith, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

The Mets have reportedly agreed to a trade with division rival Phillies that will send lefty reliever Brooks Raley to their bullpen in exchange for a pair of prospects who were both drafted in 2024.

Raley has been with the Mets since the 2023 season, when he was traded from the Tampa Bay Rays for fellow lefty Keyshawn Askew. He excelled in 2023, but after requiring Tommy John surgery in 2024, he elected free agency. He was then re-signed by the Mets, who oversaw the remainder of his rehab. His return in July 2025 was electric for the Mets, as he became an elite and trusted piece of the Mets bullpen. He has continued to dominate this year, as his is ERA of 1.96, his WHIP is 1.09, his FIP is 3.10, and his K/9 is 8.71. Unfortunately, Raley also could be a free agent at the end of the season, so this move was somewhat inevitable.

In return for Raley, the Phillies will send John Spikerman, an outfielder, and Luke Gabrysh, a right-handed pitcher, to the Mets. Neither player is ranked in the MLB Pipeline, but the Phillies consider Spikerman their No. 27 prospect. Spikerman is twenty-three years old and was a third-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2024. He has notably stolen 55 bases during his time in the minors, and has only been caught stealing four times. He is still in High-A with the Phillies.

Gabrysh is also twenty-three years old, and was drafted out St. Joseph’s. He is not ranked for the Phillies. He is 3-8 this season, with an ERA of 5.18 in 68.1 innings pitched. He has started 17 of his 18 games pitched. However, you may or may not have heard Gabrysh’s name before, due to accomplishing the rare feat of striking out four hitters in the first inning against the Brooklyn Cyclones.

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The Texas Rangers head into tonight's series opener against the San Francisco Giants as a -117 home favorite at Globe Life Field, with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. 

However, my Giants vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks expect Logan Webb to silence Texas, while the San Fran offense will provide him with run support. 

Who will win Giants vs Rangers today: Giants moneyline (+105)

The San Francisco Giants hand Logan Webb the baseball this evening. He's posted a 2.51 FIP across his last two outings, and he hasn't allowed a single homer during that span. 

Webb will face a Texas Rangers lineup that's is in very poor form, posting an 84 wRC+ over their previous seven contests.

Cal Quantrill, meanwhile, has compiled a 5.15 FIP over his last five appearances, and his FIP also sits at 5.18 at home this season. While the Giants are in the midst of a three-game skid, they're swinging it a lot better than Texas, carrying a 104 wRC+ over the last week. 

There could be runs on both sides, but Webb gives San Francisco the cleaner starting-pitching profile, and the Giants’ recent offensive form gives them enough support. Our Colby Marchio has Rafael Devers helping the Giants' cause with his home run props today.

I'll play this pick down to -110. 

COVERS INTEL: Logan Webb has held opponents to a 28.4% hard-hit rate over the last month, compared to his season average of 39.2%. 

Giants vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

This total sits at 8.5, and the Under looks like the better angle. Neither starter is completely untouchable, but Webb’s ability to limit the long ball gives San Francisco a strong run-prevention base against a Rangers lineup that's been cold recently.

Texas has been better offensively at home with a 106 wRC+ this season, so the Rangers are not a complete fade. However, the Giants bullpen gives this Under a strong path, posting a 2.78 FIP over its last 25.1 innings without allowing a home run.

The Rangers bullpen is more vulnerable with a 4.21 xERA over the last week, but unless Texas wakes up offensively, this matchup has a clearer path to stay Under 8.5.

I'll play this pick up to -130. 

Giants vs Rangers weather

Weather looks hot and dry at Globe Life Field tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from the upper 90s into the upper 80s. Winds should be light, and there's no rain concern. If the roof is open, the heat could help carry, but conditions are neutral if closed.

Giants vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Giants +113 | Rangers -117
• Run line: Giants -1.5 (+170) | Rangers +1.5 (-178)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Giants vs Rangers trend

The Giants have cashed the team total Under in 21 of their last 35 games for +5.65 units and a 14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Rangers.

How to watch Giants vs Rangers and game info

Giants vs Rangers latest injuries

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A fresh week is in front of us as we look to back a pair of players and fade a pitcher on Monday's MLB slate.

Here are my three favorite MLB player props for August 3.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Brandon Lowe	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-108
Aaron Nola	Over 2.5 earned runs	+104
Brandon Pfaadt	Under 4.5 strikeouts	-158

Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-108)

First off, this is a complete misprice. Win or lose, this is a steal for Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI.

For starters, this marks Lowe's 106th elite rating on Batters-Box. Over the previous 105 elite ratings across the last three seasons, he has cleared this prop 62.86% of the time. Even more impressive, in 47 road elite ratings during that span, he's surpassed it 70.21% of the time. Those are trends I simply can't ignore.

Lowe enters Monday with one of the hottest bats in the Pirates lineup, batting .310 with a .517 SLG, .850 OPS, a 46.5% hard hit rate, and a 9.3% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

He now draws Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances against lefties, he's allowed a 42.1% hard-hit rate, 15.8% barrel rate, and 68.5% elevation rate. Those hitters have also produced a .453 xSLG, .390 xwOBA, and .240 ISO during that stretch.

There are plenty of reasons to like Lowe tonight, but seeing him clear this prop in more than 70% of his road elite ratings is the stat that's toughest to ignore. I'd play this all the way to -125.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BREW, SNP

Aaron Nola Over 2.5 rarned runs (+104)

No Luis Garcia Jr., no problem.

The Washington Nationals enter Monday with five hitters carrying either an elite or strong rating on Batters-Box, giving them the highest-rated offense on the slate. They will face Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola, who is the second-lowest-rated pitcher of the day and owns poor matchup ratings in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact allowed.

Despite a tough offensive week, I'm still confident the highest rated offense on the board can get the job done against a pitcher with a 6.70 home ERA this season.

It gets even better. Over the last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced, Nola has allowed a 70.8% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and a 75% elevation rate. Those hitters have also produced a .440 xBA, .817 xSLG, and .509 xwOBA. That's a recipe for disaster against a lineup with this much upside. All five of those highly rated bats will bats from the left side this evening. 

If you're hesitant about the 2.5 earned runs, the Nationals' first five team total is just 1.5 at -150. Asking the highest-rated offense on today's slate to score two runs in the first five innings feels like an insult, regardless of the outcome. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NATS, NBCS-Philadelphia

Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)

Despite the complete turnaround from Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Pfaadt over his last five outings, he's still not a strikeout pitcher. That's exactly why I love the under on his strikeout prop against the San Diego Padres tonight.

On the season, theheavy ground-ball pitcher owns just a 15.91% strikeout rate, and over his last three starts, that number has dropped even further to 10.39%.

Pfaadt also owns the lowest average strikeout rate on Batters-Box's current season ratings. Now he draws a Padres lineup that doesn't feature a single projected hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

Against right-handed pitching, San Diego has just three hitters above a 22% strikeout rate over their last 60 plate appearances. As a team, they've maintained a strikeout rate below 20% across their last 21 games.

Despite the heavy juice, I think this is a fantastic way to close out the night. I'd play this to -160.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, SDPA

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Hi there!

As you know, Thomas Smith is away on vacation.

To keep this feature going, I’m going to post simply the WPA numbers and plays of the game, and a poll so you can vote on your choice for Player of the Game. Thomas will update the Rizzo Award standings when he returns.

Game 112, July 31: Yankees 2, Cubs 1 (63-49)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.184). 0-1, 3 BB
• Hero: Michael Busch (.154). 1-3, RBI
• Sidekick: Ryan Rolison (.134). 1.1 IP, H, 2 K

Rolison helped keep the game close for more than an inning.

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.354). 0-4, K
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.244). 0-4, K
• Kid: Ian Happ (-.188). 0-3, BB, K

Those are relatively large negative WPA numbers from three players, all of whom came up with chances to drive in runs and didn’t do so.

WPA Play of the Game: José Caballero’s two-run homer in the third (.179).

Cubs Play of the Game: PCA’s walk in the eighth (.098).

Pedro Ramirez’s ninth-inning walk was just behind that at .096, but the Cubs could not score him.

Up next: The Dodgers come to town for a three-game series. Matthew Boyd throws the series opener against L.A. lefty Justin Wrobleski.

Time to win a series.