Oklahoma City is the clear favorite to repeat as NBA champions: They have the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgous-Alexander, bring back 14 players from the roster that just lifted the Larry O'Brien Trophy, and this roster is still young and improving.
However, repeating is hard. It takes not only talent but luck. It's not an accident that the NBA has had seven different champions in each of the past seven seasons (nobody has repeated since the Durant/Curry Warriors), it's incredibly difficult to do. What teams have a chance to knock the Thunder off the top of the mountain? Here are our five, complete with best bets from some of our experts.
Denver Nuggets
The case here is simple: Denver took OKC to seven games in last year's playoffs, then got a lot better this summer.
Denver added the steadier Cameron Johnson in place of Michael Porter Jr., added the best backup center Nikola Jokic has ever had in Jonas Valančiūnas, and added depth with Tim Hardaway Jr. and the return of Bruce Brown. Jokic and Jamal Murray is still the best two-man game in the league. Don't just take my word for it, two of the experts from our betting team chose Denver as their pick.
I do think there is one that you need in pocket before the season starts, and let's put aside for a second that the Thunder are the clear Tier One in terms of wins, in terms of championship equity as we start the season, in terms of neutral power rating. This is the best team in basketball.
However, the way their schedule is sequenced, and just the fact that there's no real urgency for them to race out to a fast start, I definitely see a world where the time to bet the Thunder is not preseason. It's probably around New Year's.
So I am going to save, keep my powder dry to bet the Thunder until we get a little bit more clarity in terms of what the rest of the West looks like, because the rest of the West is absolutely stacked. However, the second most likely team to win, in my opinion, is the Denver Nuggets. I thought their offseason was truly spectacular, and now they have a relatively complete team coming to challenge the Thunder.
I think a healthy Nuggets' squad absolutely can test this Thunder team. So I think you need Nuggets in pocket now in the +650 range and then bet the Thunder around New Year's.
The Denver Nuggets haven't made the loudest headlines this offseason, but they've quietly addressed the flaws that hurt them most in last year's playoffs. For years, Denver had no reliable backup center to spell Nikola Jokić, and the minutes he sat often turned into trouble. That weakness is finally addressed with the signing of Jonas Valančiūnas, who brings size, rebounding, and a steady interior presence for the second unit.
Depth had also slipped away since the 2023 title run, but the Nuggets worked to replenish it. Tim Hardaway Jr. adds bench scoring, and the return of Bruce Brown, a key piece of the championship rotation, should help steady the second unit and give them a ton of lineup versatility as well.
The biggest swing, though, is the addition of Cameron Johnson. His blend of smart cutting, knockdown shooting, and underrated passing is already changing how Denver's offense looks. His well-timed cuts, quick relocations, and feel for spacing pull defenders out of position, triggering extra passes and opening up easy catch-and-shoot threes for Denver's shooters while keeping the floor unclogged for Jokić and Murray. His fit is tailor-made for the Nuggets' half-court game—an area that becomes crucial in the playoffs when defenses tighten up. Johnson's complementary scoring could be the final piece that makes Denver's offense nearly impossible to guard in those grind-it-out possessions.
It's easy to forget this team pushed the defending champion Thunder to seven games last spring and was arguably a late collapse in Game 5 away from finishing the series in six. With more depth, a true backup for Jokić, and a wing like Johnson who elevates their half-court attack, betting the Nuggets to win the Championship at +600 is a solid bet.
Cleveland Cavaliers
By NBA rules, one team from the East is going to make the NBA Finals. As much as the West gets all the hype (deservedly so), one East team is going to get a best-of-seven shot in the Finals. Most of us thought last June that the Thunder would wipe the floor with the Pacers, only to have Indiana push the Finals to a Game 7 (and if Tyrese Haliburton doesn't tear his Achilles early in that game, who knows).
Cleveland has a shot here. This was a 64-win team last season that fell short in the playoffs, in part due to injuries (Darius Garland and his turf toe being at the heart of those issues). The Cavaliers are stacked with Donovan Mitchell and Garland in the back court, plus Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley (who needs to take another step forward on offense) and Jarrett Allen up front. Last season's playoff loss feels like a learning curve for them, and the Cavs are not throwing away their shot. (That said, if the Knicks make the Finals, they have a puncher's chance as well.) NBC Sports' lead betting analyst Jay Croucher agrees on this one.
I lean to think that the Thunder are just an absolute juggernaut, and that they are just going to waltz this with health. I think that the internal improvement from their younger players is going to be more significant than the upgrades that other teams in the West have made personnel-wise.
I think the fact that they sniffed 70 wins last year, despite Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein missing half the season each or more, is very instructive. I think Jalen Williams will get better. I think Kayson Wallace will get better. I think Chet will get better and I think that this team is just a complete juggernaut.
I also think that the Cavs, at 8-1, are worth a bet in the East, I think because the East is just so weak. I think with health, the Cavs are just so clearly the best team in the East. So I would just go to war with the Thunder at +245 and the Cavs at +800.
Houston Rockets
Did the Fred VanVleet injury knock the Rockets out of contention?
With him, this team was unquestionably a contender. Last season, the Rockets won 52 games with a top-five defense in the league and an impressive list of young players: Amen Thompson, All-Star Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and more. Where the Rockets struggled was in their half-court offense, a glaring weakness that was evident in the playoff loss to the Warriors. Enter Kevin Durant. Still an elite bucket getter in the half-court at age 37, KD instantly vaulted the young Rockets up to contender status.
Then came the VanVleet ACL tear, very likely ending his season before it even started. Houston is going to give Thompson and second-year backup point guard Reed Sheppard every chance to fill the role. If one of them can, or if the team makes a deadline trade for a floor general point guard, the Rockets move back to contender status. It's just that some of us are a lot more skeptical now.
Los Angeles Lakers
Any team featuring Luka Doncic and LeBron James must be included here. Both have proven in the past that they can win a playoff game and maybe a series, carrying other players who may not be ready for that stage.
However, if the Lakers are truly going to be a threat, it all starts with Deandre Ayton. The former No. 1 pick has to return to his 2021 playoff form in Phoenix (when the Suns reached the Finals), where he was a solid rim protector on defense while finishing his rolls to the rim with buckets on offense (Doncic and LeBron will find him). The Lakers also have to prove they can defend. Coach J.J. Redick is going to start Doncic, LeBron and Austin Reaves — none of them consistently high-level defenders — which puts a lot of pressure on Ayton and whoever the fifth starter ends up being (Marcus Smart or Rui Hachimura) to get stops. Jared Vanderbilt will have to bring the defense off the bench. The Lakers' offense shouldn't be in question, but if they can get stops, too, this team will be a very tough out in the playoffs and can potentially make a run.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Somehow, the team that has been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals, with one of the rising stars in the game in Anthony Edwards, gets overlooked in these conversations. We're not making that mistake.
That said, it's fair to ask if these Timberwolves will resemble the one that went a bland 32-29 through the first five months of last season, or the one that finished the season 17-4 and then carried that momentum over to the playoffs? If Minnesota is going to make another deep run, it needs Edwards to take another step forward to become a top-five player in the game, Mike Conley needs to stay healthy and not show a steep decline at age 38, and the team is going to need to show that it can handle the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency. Rudy Gobert needs to stay healthy, and just re-signed Julius Randle needs to find a better rhythm with Edwards and live up to that new deal.
A lot of things need to fall in place for the Timberwolves to get back to the Western Conference Finals and advance, but count Edwards and them out at your own risk.
One more to watch: Golden State Warriors. This would be a long shot bet that the gravity and shooting of Stephen Curry, the defense and passing of Draymond Green, and "playoff" Jimmy Butler bringing the physicality and grit can lead a team on a run. It's a bet that there is a little more magic in the tank for Golden State. I'm not sold it happens, but if the stars align... who knows.
