I like home runs. I don't think I'm alone there. They're helpful for my fantasy teams, but also fun to watch. So I thought it would be fun to dig into some hitters who should be hitting more home runs than they currently are. For that, I made a custom leaderboard.
I looked at some stats that often lead to home runs: hard-hit rate, barrel rate, pull rate, HR/FB rate, bat speed, launch angle, and pull air rate. Then I deleted any hitter who was clearly below average in each of the categories. I know this isn't an exact science because there are hitters who can hit home runs without elite barrel rates or hitters like James Wood who can mash home runs despite having the 9th-lowest pull rate among qualified hitters. Still, I was looking for hitters who were doing everything necessary to get home runs but still had a HR/FB rate that was below average.
I also created two separate leaderboards for hitters who had all the quality of contact metrics we wanted but didn't pull the ball enough or lift the ball enough, because that could give us even more hitters to look out for who could do a home run streak with a slight adjustment.
At the end, I think we had an intriguing list of hitters who could see some positive home run regression. Some of these guys are already on your team, some are on the waiver wire, and others are just producing average results for other teams. Maybe this gives you a push to go out and grab a hitter who gets hot in the summer heat and lifts your team up the standings.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets
The league averages are a 39.6% hard-hit rate, 8.2% barrel rate, 10.8% HR/FB ratio, and 16.5% Pull Air rate.
Some of these names should not surprise you. Saying that Juan Soto, Brent Rooker, Corbin Carroll, and Logan O'Hoppe are likely to hit more home runs makes sense because we know they are quality hitters with good power production, or, in O'Hoppe's case, a power-centric hitter who should have more than one home run at this stage in the season. Still, they qualified, so they get listed here.
Austin Riley - 3B, Atlanta Braves
I did draft this on Wednesday night, so it's nice to see Riley come through with a home run on Wednesday. We can say all we want about his struggles, but he has a 10% barrel rate, a nearly 47% hard-hir rate, and an above-average Pull Air%. His bat speed is still elite, and he's swinging and missing less than he did last season. I think his pull rate may be a bit too high at 47% (41.1% is the league average), and he's chasing more than he has since 2020, but I think the bigger issue is that he's being too passive in the zone. His zone swing rate is down 5%, and his swing rate in the heart of the zone is down 6%. To me, that screams that this is more of a mental issue than a physical one. I expect Riley to turn it on.
Cole Young - 2B, Seattle Mariners
Not a lot of people think about Cole Young as a power hitter, and I know his 7% barrel rate is below-average, but a lot of things in his batted ball profile tell me that more power is coming. He has a better-than-league-average hard-hit rate, he pulls and lifts the ball more than average, and has a nearly 25% Pull Air rate. That should get the most out of his average 71.7 mph bat speed. His 111.3 max exit velocity shows that he has the ability to drive the ball out of the yard, and his 5.4% HR/FB ratio tells us that positive regression is coming, even if he doesn't make any meaningful changes. I think a strong second half is coming for Young.
Isaac Collins - OF, Kansas City Royals
I know Collins is another player who might be odd to see on this list, but look at what we have right now: a 10% barrel rate, a 43% hard-hit rate, a 42% pull rate, a 45.6% fly ball rate, and a 23.3% Pull Air%. All of this is the profile of a player who is hitting the ball hard and getting it in the air to the pull side. He also has a 73.3 mph bat speed, which is above-average bat speed. He also doesn't chase out of the zone and has a 9.2% swinging strike rate. He simply needs to be a bit more aggressive. A 20% called strike rate is now great, and he's swinging at pitches in the heart of the zone just 63% of the time, down from 76% last year. I'm not sure why that's the case, but the batted ball profile looks really good.
Nolan Gorman - 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
I feel like we do this every year with Gorman. We know he can hit for power, but he does have a 48% hard-hit rate, a 9.6% barrel rate, a 51% pull rate, and a nearly 30% Pull Air Rate. Yet, his HR/FB rate is basically league average. That profile with a 72.7 mph bat speed and 112 max exit velocity should lead to above-average home runs. Gorman has also flattened his swing this year and started swinging more often in the zone. That hasn't changed his contact profile much, but a hitter like Gorman who swings and misses a lot probably needs more bites at the apple, so I'm happy to see him being more aggressive in the zone. Could he be a .230 hitter with 25 home runs? I think that's feasible for him.
Curtis Mead - 1B/2B/3B, Washington Nationals
I just wish Mead got more at-bats. He has a 47% hard-hit rate, a 9% barrel rate, 21% Pull Air Rate, and a 72.8 mph bat speed. He looks to pull the ball often and gets it in the air 43% of the time. We haven't seen elite exit velocities from him so far, but he has just a 6.7% swinging strike rate and an 88.4% zone contact rate for his career. A player who can hit the ball with that kind of quality and also make consistent contact deserves more playing time to see if it can be for real.
Casey Schmitt - 1B/2B/3B, San Francisco Giants
Projections will tell you that Schmitt is not for sure, but I think he is. He has a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 14.6% barrel rate, 29.3% Pull Air rate, and 72.4 mph bat speed. All of which are above average. He looks to pull and lift the ball and has flattened his swing a bit this season, which has allowed him to square the ball up more often. He's always been an aggressive hitter and has a 90.5% zone contact rate with just a 10% swinging strike rate, so there's a good feel for the barrel here. I did notice that his swing rate in the heart of the zone is down by 9%, so I'm not sure what's up with that. Maybe it's all early in the count? Still, he has a 96% contact rate on pitches in the heart of the plate, so if he stops being so passive there, we could get even more production.
Coby Mayo - 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
It's a small sample size, but in the last 11 games, Mayo is hitting .265/.359/.471 with two home runs and six RBI. On the season, he has a 46% hard-hit rate, 8.4% barrel rate, and 31.3% Pull Air rate with a 116.5 mph max exit velocity that tops anybody on this list. His bat speed is elite; he's actually making contact in the zone 5% more often than last year, and his swinging strike rate is 12.4%, which is fine for somebody with his power. He's being more passive in the zone, which is not something I love to see, and I want to see more than a 66% swing rate at pitches in the heart of the strike zone. Maybe this was just about adjusting an approach that he's starting to do in recent weeks? Just keep an eye on his playing time with Jackson Holliday back.
Hitters Who Need to Hit More Fly Balls
A reminder that the league-average flyball rate is 38.6%
All of these hitters had good quality of contact, but hit far fewer fly balls than the league average, which has led to relatively poor home run production. You know that guys like Yandy Diaz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are going to be on here, but this has also hurt Roman Anthony, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jac Caglianone this year. Cags has a well-above-average HR/FB rate, so he really needs to get the ball in the air more. If any of these players start to lift more consistently, it's something to pay attention to.
Hitters Who Need to Pull the Ball More
A reminder that the league-average pull rate is 41.1%
These are hitters who have above-average contact quality (hard-hit, barrel rate, etc.) but are not pulling the ball enough. Now, this is not so simple because sometimes the quality of contact comes from the fact that they aren't looking to pull, but it also limits the power potential of players like Rafael Devers and Tyler Soderstrom. That being said, there are also guys like Pete Alonso, who technically qualified for this list but has more than enough power to hit the ball out without pulling it, so he has a better-than-average HR/FB rate. Still, I wanted to keep these players on the list, so you could see who might fall into some more power if they start to pull the ball a bit more.
Hitter Due for Home Run Regression
A reminder that the league-average HR/FB rate is 38.6%
Lastly, I wanted to cover some hitters whose HR/FB ratio is unsustainably high. I know some hitters will outperform the league average HR/FB ratio, but what these guys are doing right now is so far above the average that it's bound to come down, except for maybe Aaron Judge, who is the exception to most power rules and has a career 31.7% HR/FB ratio. Even Kyle Schwarber has a career 25.8% HR/FB, so he's vastly outproducing that right now. That means some of these guys could be interesting "sell high" candidates if you can get a large return for them; although, you obviously should not treat this as a list of players you MUST sell. Some of them will continue to outperform the league in HR/FB, just not at this rate.
