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Who’s the Pack playing?

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Mascot: Thanksgiving Dinner | School Location: Metallica, VA | Conference: ACC

2026 Record: 20-19 (9-12, 9th) | 2026 RPI Rank: 41

2025 Record: 31-25 (12-18, 12th) | 2025 RPI Rank: 56

2024 Record: 32-22 (14-16, 5th Coastal) | 2024 RPI Rank: 68

When? Where? How do I watch?

Location: English Field (Blacksburg, VA)

Game Time(s): Fri, Apr 24 @ 6:00pm | Sat, Apr 25 @ 3:00pm | Sun, Apr 26 @ 1:00pm

TV: Friday (ACCNX) | Saturday (ACCNX) | Sunday (ACCNX)

Live Stats: Stat Broadcast (Friday | Saturday | Sunday)

Tell me about this team

John Szefc is a hell of a good coach, but this Virginia Tech job may be getting the better of him. Szefc led Marist to four Regional appearances in seven years during his first go as a head coach from 1996-2002. The Red Foxes have been to just three Regionals since. After a four-year detour to the middle of the country for assistant gigs at both Kansas and Kansas State, he took over as the head man at Maryland and led the Terrapins to three Regionals – advancing to the Super Regionals in two of those – during a five year run there. Prior to Szefc’s arrival in College Park, Maryland hadn’t been to the NCAA postseason since 1971. They’ve made three Regionals in the eight postseasons since Szfec left.

That leads us to Szfec’s current gig, entering his 9th season as the Hokies head man. It started out slow, as you’d expect for a program rebuilding from Pat Mason’s four-year ditch driving run. Year five, though, saw Virginia Tech go 45-14 with a 19-9 ACC mark, hosting a Regional and Super Regional in Blacksburg with a team that had an RPI ranking of 5th in the country. It really looked like Szefc might turn the Hokies into a power, but since then it’s been a program stuck on average. Three winning seasons since, but no winning conference marks, with RPI’s between 49 and 68.

This year’s squad doesn’t look like they’re going to break that trend. The Hokies started off the year 7-1, but that included a 4-0 mark in one-run games. They went 1-8 in their next nine games, although that run included games against Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia, all potential NCAA Regional hosts this year. Things got a little better, winning the last game of the Virginia series, topping VCU in a midweek game, and then winning their series over Duke.

Unfortunately, a 4-8 run followed, including midweek losses to East Tennessee State and Liberty, as well as a series loss at home to Stanford. That series with the Cardinal was one the Hokies had to win, but dropped it in an extra-innings loss in the rubber match. NC State will catch the Hokies back on a bit of a heater, winning four of their last five after topping Pittsburgh last weekend.

That early season luck in close games has evened back out, with Virginia Tech going 3-3 in games either decided by a single run or that went extra innings. It’s not hard to find the culprit for the Hokies woes this year: the pitching staff.

Hokies hurlers are sporting a combined 7.21 ERA over 336.0 innings this year, with a walk rate of 12.6% and a strikeout rate of 23.1%. They do have two solid starters in JR RHP Brett Renfrow and rJR RHP Griffin Stieg and that group strikeout rate will play, but once you get past Renfrow and Stieg, only one of the next nine pitchers who have tossed more than 10.0 IP this year have a sub-10.0 walk rate. That’s an issue, and will obviously lead to giving up more runs.

The lineup hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been bad with a collective .267/.379/.440, 78 2B, 44 HR, 12.6 BB%, 22.6 K%, 43-56 SB. The issue is there’s not a player who does any one thing exceptionally well, so it’s hard to construct an offensive identity. It is a strong defensive team, though, although the lack of errors combined with the high ERA of the pitching staff does make you wonder what kind of range the team has in the field, and some of the advanced metrics tell that story. Only four VT position players have a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) total over 1.00 this year. Compare that to NC State that has 11 players over that mark.

Barring the Hokies going 6-3 or better down the stretch in ACC play and then making some noise at the ACC Tournament, it’ll be four straight missed Regionals for Virginia Tech.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: TBD vs TBD

Saturday: TBD vs TBD

Sunday: TBD vs TBD

Key Players:

Offense

C Henry Cooke (SR) – .252/.369/.409, 7 2B, 3 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.2 K%, 3-3 SB. Hitting .361/.467/.623, 5 2B, 3 HR, 17. BB%, 26.7 K%, 1-1 SB in ACC play. Has also thrown out 23.7% of base stealers, with an almost identical 23.1% mark in ACC play. Multiple hits in 4 of his last 7 games.

1B Hudson Lutterman (SO) – .291/.357/.545, 6 2B, 8 HR, 7.0 BB%, 17.1 K%, 0-0 SB. Undersized first baseman (5’10, 180 lbs) is having a big sophomore jump after hitting just .208/.291/.392 over 34 starts in 2025. Hit 2 HR last weekend at Pitt, including a walk-off in the series finale.

SS Ethan Gibson (JR) – .319/.385/.511, 6 2B, 4 HR, 10.9 BB%, 20.9 K%, 1-1 SB. Mostly used as a defensive sub over his first two years with the program, making 28 starts over 73 games across 2024-2025 with just a .193 batting average over that time. Has been fantastic with the glove, committing just 3 errors on the year with a .979 fielding percentage. Current 10-game hitting streak.

2B Ethan Ball (FR) – .299/.387/.565, 13 2B, 8 HR, 7.7 BB%, 33.3 K%, 3-3 SB. Started off his college career with a 10-game hitting streak before being more spotty over the last month. Only has four hits over his last six games, but they’ve all been doubles, including two in VT’s win over VCU on Tuesday.

Pitching

RHP Brett Renfrow (JR) – 2-4, 6.41 ERA, 46.1 IP, 7.8 BB%, 30.1 K%. Two-time 3rd Team All-ACC selection, he was listed by some as a Top 100 prospect entering this year, but has had a rough go of it. The 6’3, 220 lbs righty has some nice tools, with a mid-90’s fastball that will touch 97, a upper-80’s cutter, mid-80’s slider, low-80’s curve, and mid-80’s changeup. It’s a nice arsenal of pitches, and the peripherals show what he’s capable of with them. Got beaten up by GT, UVA, Miami, and BC, but shut down Duke, Stanford, and Pitt, so it’s been a mixed bag.

RHP Griffin Stieg (rJR) – 2-2, 5.87 ERA, 46.0 IP, 8.8 BB%, 17.6 K%. Started 13 games for the Hokies in 2024 (3-2, 4.70 ERA, 51.2 IP, 5.7 BB%, 21.1 K%), but then needed elbow surgery at the end of that year that wiped out his 2025 season. Despite that, was drafted in the 18th round by the Mariners last year, but turned down the Mariners – as well as his transfer portal commitment to Alabama – to return to the Hokies. He’s a low-90’s arm who will touch the mid-90s, adding in a slider and changeup.

RHP Preston Crowl (JR) – 1-2, 4 SV, 6.42 ERA, 33.2 IP, 12.0 BB%, 22.7 K%. Has 55 career appearances with the Hokies. Hasn’t had the success he did last year (2-0, 1 SV, 3.90 ERA, 32.1 IP, 16.3 BB%, 26.9 K%) in terms of ERA or strikeout rate, but his control has been better and he’s been counted on in bigger spots. He’s heavily relied upon, making multiple appearances in a single ACC series three times this year and has topped 30 pitches in each of his last 7 appearances, including a 74-pitch relief outing at Boston College two weekends ago.

LHP Brendan Yagesh (SR) – 2-2, 1 SV, 7.47 ERA, 31.1 IP, 12.7 BB%, 20.4 K%. Former transfer from Mount St. Mary’s, originally hailing from Urbana, Virginia. Started 16 games over two seasons for the Mountaineers, but has mostly been a reliever for the Hokies, although he did start three ACC games earlier this year, including tossing 7.0 shutout innings against Duke (he then gave up 13 ER over 7.0 IP in his next two starts). Outside of those two negative starts and one bad turn at Virginia, he’s been solid.

LHP ChaseSwift (SO) – 1-1, 4.00 ERA, 18.0 IP, 9.7 BB%, 45.8 K%. The mustachioed redhead is aptly named for a guy who ranks 12th in the country in whiff rate. Those peripherals say the guy needs more innings. He won’t blow the ball by anybody with a heater that only tops in the low-90’s, but he has a four-pitch mix (cutter, slider, changeup) that generate a lot of swings and misses.

Quick! Fun Facts!

The Hokies have four alums in the MLB this year: 1B T.J. Rumfield (Rockies), LHP Ian Seymour (Rays), OF Kerry Carpenter (Tigers), and LHP Joe Mantiply (Blue Jays). They had three other alums appear at the MLB level in 2025: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians; will miss 2025 with TJS), RHP Zach Brzykcy (Nationals; now with Marlins), RHP Jesse Hahn (Mariners; now with Blue Jays).

The seven former Hokies at the MLB level over the last two years is impressive for the program, given that there were only 11 former Virginia Tech players to make it to that level over the previous 25 seasons.

Virginia Tech doesn’t have a single player from the state of North Carolina. That’s wild.

The Hokies roster isn’t very deep on All-Name Team candidates, but FR INF Willie Hurt (.407/.619/.444, 1 2B, 0 HR, 27.9 BB%, 14.0 K%, 1-3 SB) is a no-doubt 1st Teamer. The lefty swinging DH currently has a 7-game hitting streak.

The Key To A Series Win For State

With Ryan Marohn unavailable for a second straight weekend, the Wolfpack bats are going to have to come alive against this Hokies pitching staff. The Hokies have been one of the best defensive teams in the conference, so State will need to also play clean to support the pitching staff and not supply any extra help to VTs lineup.

Prediction

There’s not a lot of confidence to be had for the Wolfpack after last weekend’s showing in Winston-Salem. With another road trip starting – and doing so without Jacob Dudan and Ryan Marohn – it’s hard to predict an NC State series win. Couple that with the Hokies coming off a series win of their own, it’s easy to see Virginia Tech coming out on top here in what should be a close, high-scoring three-game series.

Outcome: Hokies take two of three

One of the strengths for the Pittsburgh Pirates to start the season has been their starting rotation, and right-handed pitcher Braxton Ashcraft is a big reason because of that.

In his most recent start for the Pirates, he threw seven innings and 94 pitches, both career-highs, while only allowing two earned runs against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on April 22, earning an 8-4 victory.

Ashcraft is in his first full season as a starting pitcher at the major league level and he’s done incredibly well so far for the Bucs.

He has a 1-1 record in five starts, a 2.43 ERA over 29.2 innings pitched, 32 strikeouts to nine walks, a .202 batting average allowed and a 1.01 WHIP.

His strikeouts are tied for 15th in baseball, with his BAA 25th in baseball and his WHIP ranks 33rd as well.

The 26-year-old started the season with a little walk problem after walking four batters in his season debut on March 30th but in his four starts in April he only walked five batters. 

He also just gave up his first home run of the season against the Rangers, but soon settled in and got some ground balls and went the longest he has in his major league career.

This is massive news for Pittsburgh because of the fact that Ashcraft is the fourth pitcher in their rotation. The fact that the Buccos are getting that contribution from someone pretty far in the depth chart is massive. It shows how deep the Pirates starting rotation actually is, which is important because of the shaky start from the bullpen. 

The Pirates have a lot of faith in the young pitcher as well, with no real pitching limits. Ashcraft has had some injury problems in the past dating from his minor league days in triple-A. His 29.2 innings pitched lead the Pirates and are tied for 19th-most in baseball. 

Pirates fans knew that Paul Skenes was going to do his thing and that they were going to get solid outings out of Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler, so the fact they are also getting serious production out of Ashcraft is massive. Ashcraft has been one of the biggest surprises for the Pirates to start the season and if he can continue to pitch like this, the Pittsburgh starting rotation would be in a great place. 

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The home run vibes are high heading into the Friday slate, with some great spots to look for MLB player props, despite the weather still not in bettors' favor.

I'm going indoors with the Jays back home and some home-run potential on both sides of the field, and taking the easy route with one of the best home-run hitters facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball at +EV prices.

Plus, I'm backing a Cubs bat to keep his recent hot streak going.

These are my favorite HR props for Friday, April 24.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	+610
Munetaka Murakami	+320
Michael Busch	+520
💲Today's HR parlay	+14581

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+610)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might not be the home-run hitter he was in 2021, but +610 is a big price for an indoor game with a bland home-run setting on Friday’s board.

His swing speed is still elite, and his Blast Contact numbers are strong — he just needs to improve that launch angle, as he ranks last on the team in Ideal Attack Angle%. He needs to elevate the ball, and there are signs he can against Gavin Williams.

Guerrero has taken Williams deep once in eight career at-bats, and the Cleveland Guardians starter struggled with HR/FB% last year. That number looks even worse early this season, and his ground-ball rate could regress toward his career norms, and his .167 BABIP is unsustainable.

There’s a price point for any Guerrero home run in a favorable setting, and it starts at +600 or better. The fair price on this four-bagger is around +540.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, Guardians.TV

Munetaka Murakami (+320)

Let’s get a taste of the good life with one of the best home-run bats in baseball, at home, facing Miles Mikolas.

Munetaka Murakami just had his five-game homer streak snapped, but this may be the best matchup of that stretch. He’s 12-for-27, and every extra-base hit has left the yard. When he gets the ball in the air, it’s leaving at an incredible 39% clip.

Mikolas has been one of the worst HR/FB pitchers in baseball, and his early-season struggles have pushed that even lower. The only thing that can slow Murakami is swing-and-miss, which isn’t a major concern against Mikolas.

Despite the production, this price still shows value, with a fair line around +260.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, CHSN

Michael Busch (+520)

It took some time, but Michael Busch has found his power stroke, going deep in back-to-back games. Now he enters a strong matchup tonight at Dodger Stadium.

The No. 2 hitter for the Chicago Cubs still profiles as a 30-HR bat in a favorable hitting environment with winds blowing out to center. Emmet Sheehan is a solid target for home runs, ranking near the bottom of MLB starters in Blast Contact% while allowing plenty of fly balls — with nearly 20% leaving the yard this year.

Chicago enters on a nine-game win streak, gets the full nine innings on the road, and this home run price should be closer to +430.

• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV+

Today’s HR parlay

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Bet Now +14581
Munetaka Murakami
Michael Busch

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

We’re a week away from the end of the first month of the season, and the Mariners still haven’t found their groove. The walk-off win on Wednesday afternoon was a nice way to escape a sweep at the hands of the A’s, but it wrapped up a disappointing 3-3 homestand against AL West foes. Thankfully, no one else in the division has been running away in the standings. Everyone is still bunched together, which means the projections and playoff odds are largely unchanged from the start of the season. The other bit of optimism comes from Seattle’s underlying performance; the team has underperformed its Pythagorean record by two wins and their base runs record by three wins. They’ve been the “unluckiest” team in the majors by both those measures.

The Cardinals are in the initial stages of a major transition for the organization. Chaim Bloom took over as president of baseball operations this offseason and quickly traded away a bunch of high priced veterans. Gone are Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan. There was already a small core of young players already contributing in the majors, but the seemingly endless pipeline of talent coming through St. Louis’s farm system has dried up over the last few years. A lot of their recent top prospects have failed to make much of an impact in the big leagues, which is one of the root causes of this current rebuilding cycle.

Most of that young talent still on the Cardinals roster resides in their lineup. JJ Wetherholt, their first round pick in the 2024 draft, made his major league debut on Opening Day and represents a significant piece of the team’s future. The most impactful development has been the early season breakout from Jordan Walker. A former top prospect who has really struggled to establish himself in the big leagues, he’s looking like he’s finally put it all together this year. He’s still swinging and missing a ton, but he’s elevating all of his loud contact and has already blasted eight home runs. Iván Herrera and Alec Burleson are two solid everyday regulars that complete the backbone of the Cardinals lineup. The rest of the group is pretty questionable at the plate, though both Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II are defensive stalwarts. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Andre Pallante is a groundball specialist who has carved out a nice role as an innings-eating back-end starter in St. Louis. He doesn’t strike anyone out, walks a few too many, but gets away with it by inducing a ton of contact on the ground. His four-seam fastball is super weird. He throws from a really high slot and you’d expect a ton of carry from that pitch at the top of the zone. Instead, it’s arrow straight and drops a lot like his sinker. It has the highest groundball rate of any four-seamer in baseball. It’s almost as if he has two versions of his sinker, one that has a bit of armside run (like a traditional sinker) and one that doesn’t (his four-seamer).

Once upon a time, Matthew Liberatore was one of the Cardinals’ top pitching prospects. His development stalled out once he reached the big leagues and St. Louis actually tried to use him as a high leverage reliever for a while back in 2024. Back in the rotation last year, he had a great start to the season but wore down during the summer. It was his best showing in the big leagues and a stepping stone to continue growing this year. He has a wide arsenal but his big curveball is the only standout pitch. His command is good enough, and repertoire varied enough, that he can keep opposing batters off balance, but his stuff isn’t dominant enough to rack up a ton of strikeouts. 

Michael McGreevy is a throw back to a bygone era. He’s a kitchen sink righty with a fastball that barely touches 91 mph and seven different pitches in his arsenal. He’s got excellent command of his entire repertoire and locates well on both sides of the plate. That makes at-bats against him pretty uncomfortable for opposing batters, though none of his pitches are that dominant individually. Instead, batters are more likely to mishit any contact they make because any given pitch could break in or out, up or down. Like the other two starters previewed above, the Cardinals fantastic defense is capable of turning a lot of that contact into outs, which makes his low strikeout rate less of a liability.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers and Athletics head into this weekend tied atop the AL West standings, and those two division rivals meet up for a three-game series in Texas this weekend. The Angels have continued to be entertaining to watch, though they’ve slipped down the standings after losing back-to-back series to the Padres and Blue Jays; they’ll play in Kansas City this weekend. The Astros won their series against the Guardians earlier this week but still bring up the rear in the standings. Houston hosts the Yankees this weekend.

Your 2026 New York Mets: OK, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it’s called ‘two in a row.’ And if we win again tomorrow, it’s called a ‘winning streak’… It has happened before!

““He struck him out and the ball game is over! And for the first time in more than two weeks, the Mets can shake hands.” -Gary Cohen [New York Post]

I was dreamin’ when I wrote this

“That insidious 12-game losing streak has finally come to an end. Mets win it 3-2.” -Gary Cohen [New York Post]

Forgive me if it goes astray

“Swung on and missed, strike three! Put it in the books!” -Howie Rose [New York Post]

But when I woke up this morning

“For the first time in 15 days, the New York Mets have won a baseball game. They have ended their 12-game losing streak, and if this crowd is not exactly jubilant, they are more than simply relieved.” -Howie Rose [New York Post]

I coulda sworn it was Judgment Day

“It was good to get some wins [and] remember what that feels like.” -Bo Bichette [New York Post]

The sky was all purple

“It was a crazy game.’’ -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

There were people runnin’ everywhere

“Winning games in the big leagues is really hard. Good teams fight, no matter the ebbs and flows.” -Bo Bichette [New York Post]

Tryin’ to run from my destruction

“[Peterson, Manaea, and Myers have] been saving us.’’ -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

You know I didn’t even care

“The desire to help a new team and the desire to just perform at the level you know you can perform at — I don’t know if any of that was weighing on me, but I definitely still need to get better. I’ll make adjustments and get to the player I need to be.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]

‘Cause they say

“I think [Bichette’s] been looking for that moment, especially here at home. Meaningful for him to do it in front of our fan base.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

2000, zero, zero, party over

“Today, I felt good but like I said, I’ve got to show up tomorrow and do it again.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]

Oops, out of time

“You’re always worried, but you also trust those guys [in the bullpen]. Once Devin got to the mound, that’s what I told him. He got the job done.” -Carlos Mendoza [The Athletic]

So tonight I’m gonna party like it’s 1999

“Oh, fuck.” -Huascar Brazobán thought [The Athletic]

“The messaging there was: If it’s tied, you go back out. If we take the lead, Devin’s in the game. I speak Spanish. I need to make sure he gets the message.” -Carlos Mendoza [The Athletic]

“They told me clearly. I stayed on autopilot and just went out there. Really, it was my bad.” -Huascar Brazobán [The Athletic]

“I felt bad and a little embarrassed that I didn’t fully pay attention to what was going on. Luckily, I was able to get that out.” -Huascar Brazobán [The Athletic]

“Whenever I have to miss games, it’s super disappointing. It sucks to be on the side, but I’ll be there with them, cheering them on and probably just as nervous as every fan out there as well.” -Francisco Lindor [MLB]

“He’s going to be down quite a bit here. I don’t think we’re anticipating something like we knew right away with Juan that it was kind of like the best-case scenario and it was going to be on the short side of things. I don’t think we’re dealing with the same thing here.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“This kills me not being on the field, but I trust the trainers and I know they have good care here, and I’ll be back. I’ll be back hopefully sooner rather than later.” -Francisco Lindor [MLB]

When your favorite team is 150 years old almost everything has been done before. After all, Wrigley Field is the home of Babe Ruth’s called shot. It’s also the only MLB ballpark left that Jackie Robinson played a game in. You can almost feel the ghosts of baseball past whispering at you from the ivy when you step on the concourse. Wrigley Field has seen no-hitters, cycles, the Sandberg Game, Michael Jordan trying to make a second career out of baseball and so much more.

But fans on Wednesday night were treated to a rare first at the baseball cathedral at the corner of Clark and Addison: the first walkoff ABS challenge in the history of that old park. It was an electric environment as catcher Miguel Amaya tapped his helmet to request an ABS review of Hoby Milner’s pitch, putting to rest any fears that ABS challenges at the end of games would be anti-climactic.

Honestly, one of the most interesting developments of the 2026 season has been how engaging ABS challenges have been for fans. Don’t believe me? Just watch [VIDEO].

Miguel Amaya immediately goes to his helmet to challenge the call, he knows he’s right. The fans erupt with the joy of a crowd that has watched umpires blow those calls their whole lives only to finally have a mechanism to confirm what we’ve all seen with our own eyes all along. Even for fans who love the human element, the ABS challenge system is a good compromise:

MLB Network had this great breakdown of the ins and outs of the system early in the season:

However, the unexpected joy of the ABS system has been the fan reaction. Crowds are into it when their team challenges and are correct. Fans aren’t the only ones feeling the catharsis of a successful ABS challenge, just check out how the Reds welcomed CB Bucknor to the new world of ABS earlier this season:

It’s not just CB Bucknor, though. Watch veteran catcher Salvador Perez demonstrate he really knows the zone in this game against the Braves:

MLB has already seen more than 1000 challenges less than a month into the season according to Jayson Stark. It’s a wild pace:

So is it a surprise that we’ve already seen more than 1,000 taps on those caps and helmets? In the first three weeks of this season, there were 1,082 ABS challenges of ball/strike calls that used to be a job for humans alone.

If this keeps up, we’re heading for nearly 10,000 challenges … and more than 5,000 calls overturned by the time this season is over. That’s about 200 counts that will get flipped every week.

Understand what that means:

Innings change on those flips. Games change. Whole seasons could have a different narrative, all because one high-impact strike turned into a ball — or vice versa.

It’s a wild pace, but consider the outcomes that have already changed — or could have changed. The Phillies are a dangerous hitting team and while the Cubs seemed to have Wednesday night’s affair squarely in hand with a 7-2 lead, I’m not sure any of us wanted to see Hoby Milner throw more pitches to figure out if he could get out of that inning unscathed. Besides, more pitches lead to more injuries and that’s about the last thing the Cubs can afford right now.

Many fans including myself were worried this would be anticlimactic. Watching Samuel Basallo notch the first-ever walkoff challenge, I just have to admit I have rarely been so wrong [VIDEO].

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The New York Yankees and Houston Astros begin a weekend series tonight, and a situational angle has provided some value.

My Yankees vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks have us backing the underdog on Friday, April 24. 

Who will win Yankees vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 -133

Breaking character here by not being a huge situational bettor, but this one is overwhelming. The New York Yankees are riding their biggest high of the young season, having swept the Boston Red Sox in Fenway. 

This was capped by an emotional comeback win in the late innings, too. Now they immediately hit the road to Texas with no rest. It's enough to push me in the direction of the Houston Astros.

Will Warren has been solid this season, supported by an 84th percentile K% and an 85th percentile walk rate. His 3.68 xERA confirms the surface numbers are legit, but he simply isn't the type of arm you should be spotting a run and a half against.

His bottom 25th percentile hard-hit rate looms large against an Astros lineup that is top five in such metrics at home. On the other side, Astros hurler Lance McCullers does one thing very well: get chased. That should play nicely against an already swing-happy Yankees team that's a bit fatigued. 

COVERS INTEL: Will Warren's groundball % ranks in the 77th percentile at 50.7%, making him one of the better groundball inducers in the league

Yankees vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 +127

This is an appetizing price given the narratives outlined above. I made the fair even money, so I'll take some Under. This is basically a bet that McCullers' pending negative regression holds off for just a bit longer, and I think it will.

McCullers' 32% chase rate should yield some success, as I mentioned above. Beyond the situational aspect, the Yankees are starting to revert to some of the same things we've seen out of them over the past five years: a lot of swing and miss.

They have now climbed to third overall in the league-wide whiff rate. I'll back McCullers to lean into that and Will Warren to manage the game enough to keep this Under.

Yankees vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -144 | Astros +122
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+108) | Astros +1.5 (-130)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (-130)

Yankees vs Astros trend

The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.

How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info

Yankees vs Astros latest injuries

Yankees vs Astros weather

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