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Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the season’s final month upon us, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.

First Place: Cleveland Guardians (16-16)

Top Position Player: Daniel Schneemann (1.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Parker Messick (1.3 fWAR)

The Guardians sit atop what has to date been the weakest division in baseball with a .500 record and without having strung together more than two consecutive wins throughout the entirety of the month of April. That has been less a testament to the Guardians’ performance, though, and more to the fact that the entire division has, well, grossly underperformed expectations in the early going.

Over the past few years, Cleveland has not exactly been known for their offensive prowess, and this year is no exception. Their 3.84 runs/game sits last in the American League, and their 92 OPS+ ranks better than only the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Steven Kwan (73 wRC+) and Bo Naylor (-1) have been absolutely dreadful, José Ramírez has been stealing bases but hitting for less power (12 SB without being caught, but just a 115 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR). Should these veterans begin hitting like the back of their baseball cards, though, the emergence of utilityman Daniel Schneemann (167 wRC+), the strong start of rookie Chase DeLauter (130), and the high potential of recently-promoted top prospect Travis Bazzana mean that the Guardians could find their offense in a different place when the summer comes.

What has allowed Cleveland to fight their way to the top of the division so far has been the top of their rotation, as the trio of Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, and Parker Messick (who flirted with a no-hitter) have each posted sub-3.00 ERAs, while Tanner Bibee has been a veritable innings eater alongside them. While their pitching staff has been let down by a shaky bullpen, their underlying metrics suggest that they’ve been let down by some bad luck, and will ultimately face some positive regression.

Second Place: Detroit Tigers (16-16)

Top Position Player: Kevin McGonigle (1.6 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1.6 fWAR)

The only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential (+9), the Tigers begin the month of May in a bit of a precarious position. Rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle (164 wRC+) leads an offense that is tied with the Angels for third in the AL in OPS+ (106) and in the Junior Circuit’s top half in runs/game (4.44), but which has seen injuries to Javier Báez, Zach McKinstry, and Parker Meadows. On the flip side, though, their defense has been absolutely terrible. Their -15 Outs Above Average is even with the Mariners for the worst in the majors, and while Defensive Runs Saved isn’t quite as low on them, their -2 DRS is tied for the AL’s third-worst. To put it bluntly, there’s a real case to be made that Gleyber Torres is their best defender.

Fortunately, Detroit has one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Tarik Skubal is an early contender for his third-straight AL Cy Young, although strong starts by Yankees starters Cam Schlittler and Max Fried and by Angels starter José Soriano, combined with his 1.104 OPS the third time through the order, puts him in a bit of a hole early on. Behind him, Framber Valdez gives the team one of the league’s best 1-2 punches. Injuries to Casey Mize and Justin Verlander, however, have sapped some of the depth, and it’s debatable whether the Tigers have the bullpen arms to engage in the “pitching chaos” that they did back in 2024.

Third Place: Chicago White Sox (14-17)

Top Position Player: Colson Montgomery (1.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Davis Martin (1.2 fWAR)

It’s rare for a 14-17 team to be one of the season’s darlings, but here we are. Just two years after losing 121 games, Chicago looks like a fun team again. Much of this has to do with the performance of first baseman Munetaka Murakami, who has exceeded all expectations in his first month in the United States. His dozen homers thus far are tied with Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez for the MLB lead.

Between Murakami, shortstop Colson Montgomery, and third baseman Miguel Vargas, Chicago has its most dangerous middle of the order since their 2021 AL Central division winners — i.e., before everything all came crashing down. Atop the rotation, meanwhile, Davis Martin has been dominant, Sean Burke has been effective, and Erick Fedde has been capable. Thanks to the top of their lineup and rotation, Chicago has been able to put together two three-game winning streaks this season (including a sweep over the Blue Jays) and win 8 of their past 12 games.

So why does The Athletic still rank Chicago as the 30th team in this week’s power rankings? Like most bad teams trying to emerge from rock bottom, the White Sox have some solid players, but lack depth. Edgar Quero (35 wRC+) and Luisangel Acuña (28 wRC+) have combined for 164 plate appearances, and Andrew Benintendi has shown that last year’s above-average performance may have been a dead cat bounce, as he now sits at a 72 wRC+. Anthony Kay and his 6.12 ERA is fourth on the team in innings pitched with 25.0.

Chicago is trending in the right direction, but barring divine intervention — hello, Leo — they’re likely to find themselves back in the cellar of the division soon enough.

Fourth Place: Minnesota Twins (14-18)

Top Position Player: Byron Buxton/Trevor Larnach/Ryan Jeffers (0.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan (1.1 fWAR)

After their fire sale last season, the Minnesota Twins came into 2026 with absolutely no expectations, even if they themselves refuse to admit it. And so, naturally, they began the season on a tear: after shutting out the Red Sox 6-0 on April 14th, they were 11-7, sitting in first place in the AL Central. Since then, though, they’ve fallen down to Earth, losing 11 out of their last 14 games — including sweeps at the hands of the Reds and Rays — to plummet all the way down to fourth place.

The calling card of this Minnesota team has been their starting rotation. Joe Ryan (3.76 ERA, 3.10 FIP) and Taj Bradley (2.85 ERA, 4.03 FIP) have allowed them to withstand the loss of Pablo López, who underwent Tommy John surgery in February and will miss the season. If Bailey Ober (3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP) continues to bounce back from a subpar 2025, then the Twins might have just enough rotation depth to compete in what is clearly a lackluster division.

That’s assuming they can patch the holes in their lineup and bullpen, of course. Offensively, Ryan Jeffers (155 wRC+), Austin Martin (163 wRC+), and Trevor Larnach (138 wRC+) have been able to make up for Byron Buxton’s comparatively slow start (106 wRC+ until yesterday’s three-hit day). But if Minnesota truly wants to compete, they need Buxton to both stay healthy and be the five-tool player that has made baseball fans frustrated by his inability to stay healthy for 12 years now, and they need to find some more offense at the hot corner (Royce Lewis currently has an 88 wRC+) and the cold corner (Kody Clemens, the team’s most common first baseman, has an 87 wRC+ and is more known for his defensive versatility than his bat, anyway). In the bullpen, Anthony Banda and Taylor Rogers either need to lock in and play more akin to their career norms, or else drop down in the bullpen pecking order considerably.

Last Place: Kansas City Royals (12-19)

Top Position Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (1.7 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Seth Lugo (1.2 fWAR)

Just two years ago, the Kansas City Royals won 86 games, gave the eventual AL champion Yankees a run for their money in the ALDS, and looked to all the world a team on the rise. Now, though, they seem to be a team stuck in neutral, clearly scuffling but without any obvious path to improvement beyond hoping that players begin to turn their seasons around.

Offensively, pretty much everyone has been struggling, from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and his 63 wRC+ to superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., whose 117 wRC+ is far from bad, but ever further from the 169 he put up in 2024 and a step down from his 130 last season. Captain Salvador Perez is technically on pace for the 10th 20-homer season of his excellent career, but beyond the five dingers, he’s been abysmal as he appraches his 36th birthday with a 54 wRC+. Rookie catcher Carter Jensen (124 wRC+) and second-year outfielder Jac Caglianone (103 wRC+, up from a 46 in his rookie campaign) have been the two big positives so far, as the team struggles to figure itself out. Furthermore, the season-ending injury to Jonathan India opens up a massive hole at second, for while he had been struggling, his replacement Michael Massey isn’t exactly an improvement.

On the mound, Seth Lugo looks much like the pitcher who was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young back in 2024, with a 2.63 ERA across his first six starts, and Michael Wacha has continued to pitch better in his 30s than he did in his 20s (3.13 ERA, 3.96 FIP). Behind them, though, question marks abound. Opening Day starter Cole Ragans is an absolute mess (5.00 ERA, 5.42 FIP), 2025 rookie standout Noah Cameron has been bad (5.40 ERA, 6.32 FIP), and the entire bullpen aside from Daniel Lynch IV (0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings) and Nick Mears (2.45 ERA in 11.0 innings) has been a veritable hit parade.

For all the consternation about the Mariners’ slow start in April, they wound up finishing the month with a .500 record thanks to two straight series wins on the road. Despite sitting a game and a half behind the A’s in the division, FanGraphs gives Seattle coin flip odds to win the AL West (54.4%) and a 78.0% chance of returning to the postseason, the second highest playoff odds in the AL. All that bad luck that was skewing their early season results has started to correct itself. Surely nothing could go wrong during a big weekend series celebrating a franchise legend against a historically pesky team, right?

Note: now that the calendar has flipped to May, I’ll be using 2026 stats where appropriate in these previews.

The Royals came into this season with an eye towards building off their two successful seasons in 2024 and ‘25. They had their one surprise postseason appearance a few years ago but it seemed like they were on the verge of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle if they could get one or two of their youngsters to take the next step forward. Unfortunately, the team has really stumbled out of the gate. A sweep of the Angels was their first series win since the first week of the season and an eight-game losing streak a few weeks ago really hurt their April record. They’re tied with the Red Sox for the second worst record in the AL, but because no one has run away with the AL Central, just 3 ½ games back in their division.

The biggest reason why the Royals have struggled to really break through these past few years is because they haven’t been able to build a complete lineup around Bobby Witt Jr. Maikel Garcia took a huge step forward last year, but Vinnie Pasquantino hasn’t been able to recreate the magic of his rookie campaign. Those two are solid sidekicks to Witt; the bigger problem is the bottom of the lineup has been an absolute black hole. There was some hope that a breakout from Jac Caglianone and average production from Isaac Collins in the outfield would help lengthen the lineup, but neither has impressed this year. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the heart of the team, Salvador Perez. He’s still chugging along, though it seems like age has really caught up to him this year. His eventual replacement, Carter Jensen, has shown flashes of top-end talent and has been the team’s best hitter so far.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Cole Ragans had a really weird season last year. His peripherals were better than they’ve ever been in his career — his strikeout rate was all the way up at 38.1% — but his ability to actually prevent runs was pretty terrible; his ERA was more than two runs higher than his FIP, xERA, and xFIP. Then, in June, he was sidelined with a shoulder injury, though he was able to make it back onto the mound by late September. The start to this season has been a big mixed bag for Ragans. He’s had three solid starts interspersed with three absolute clunkers, and those blowouts are really weighing heavily on his season statline. Ragans’s best pitch is his four-seam fastball and he has a trio of excellent secondary pitches — a changeup and a pair of devastating breaking balls — to help him earn tons of swings and misses. 

Seth Lugo throws the kitchen sink — and the bathtub too, for good measure. I have eight pitches listed in the table above, but I combined what Statcast calls his curveball and a “slow curve” into one line. And really, his sweeper-slurve is actually one pitch that he varies the speed and shape of based on the situation. That deep repertoire has served him well since making the transition to the starting rotation in 2023. He struggled with his normally excellent command last year, leading to a bunch of additional walks and home runs, but has seemed to have gotten over those issues to start this year. Despite mediocre raw stuff and advancing age, he’s been able to keep batters off balance because they often have no idea what pitch is coming next.

Kris Bubic changed the trajectory of his career back in 2023 by adding a much needed third secondary pitch to his repertoire, a slider in this case. He only lasted three starts that season before succumbing to an elbow injury that wiped out most of that year and the next. After a brief stint as a high-leverage reliever in ‘24, he returned to the starting rotation last year with a brand-new arsenal; gone was his curveball and in its place was a fantastic sweeper alongside the slider that fueled his breakout. His changeup looked a lot different too, and that offspeed pitch has been critical in his efforts to keep right-handed batters at bay. A shoulder injury cut his season short last year but he’s been healthy to start this year.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics just finished a series win over the Royals earlier this week and will host the Guardians over the weekend. The Rangers have only won one series since sweeping the M’s back in early April, but they’ve managed to hover around .500 for the last few weeks. Texas lost its series against the Yankees this week and will travel to Detroit this weekend. The Astros split a double-header with the Orioles yesterday, avoiding a sweep in that series; they travel to Boston next. All the fun of the Angels start to the season has quickly disappeared; they were just swept by the White Sox and have now lost 10 of their last 11 games. Los Angeles will host the miserable Mets this weekend.

The trade between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays in November 2022 didn’t make a lot of headlines. Part of that is because people – including those who live in Florida – don’t pay all that much attention to the two Florida teams. More importantly, the trade didn’t involve any headline talent. In exchange for two low-minors players, the Rays sent pitcher JT Chargois to the Marlins along with another minor leaguer in infielder Xavier Edwards.

Chargois has already come and gone, but Edwards is emerging as a star player. In 2025, he spent time at both second base and shortstop, mostly playing well at the former but was lacking at the latter. He didn’t show much power but got on base at a .343 clip and stole 27 bases.

This season, he’s been the team’s full-time second baseman and his defense has solidified. He has also stepped up his offensive game. His on-base percentage of .432 leads the National League, and while he’ll likely never be a huge power threat, his slugging percentage is up almost 100 points from 2025.

You know how we’ve talked about the concept of a “cleanup hitter” changing over the years? Despite not hitting a lot of home runs, Edwards has been batting fourth in the Marlins’ lineup, and it’s worked out well so far.

He’s also shown excellent taste in role models:

This being the Marlins, there’s a strong chance that Edwards gets traded in a couple of seasons as he approaches free agency. But for now, the Marlins can enjoy their young star!

Non-Phillies thought

A few comparisons have been made between this year’s Flyers and the 2022 Phillies: After several years missing the playoffs, the team finally qualified for the postseason thanks to a late surge, and in the first round, took down a favored team with multiple older stars on the roster.

Much like the 2022 Phillies, the Flyers will be underdogs in their next series. However, unlike those Phillies who took on the Atlanta Braves, they don’t have the additional motivation of playing a traditional rival. And there’s also the definite possibility that the team is happy just to have gotten this far. But sometimes, the “playing with house money” team can be the most dangerous.

Saturday is setting up to be a massive sports day in Philadelphia with the Phillies in action along with Sixers (game seven!), and Flyers playoff games. And there’s also the Kentucky Derby. While I’m sure this year’s race won’t compare to the 2004 edition, it’s still fun to watch.

I will have to set up multiple TVs to catch all the action, although my last multiple TV night was on October 9th, and that went…poorly.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The Phillies’ first game at Truist Park was June 5, 2017. In the first inning of that game, a home run was hit by Tommy Joseph. (Nobody answered that one correctly)

This week’s question: In the first series the Phillies played at LoanDepot Park (nee Marlins Park) in June 2012, they lost all three games. Name two of the three losing pitchers from that series.

Additional thought about the series

Under Rob Thomson: Phillies play poorly for eight of nine innings in a game and lose.

Under Don Mattingly: Phillies play poorly for seven of nine innings in a game, but one of those good innings is the ninth and they win.

After how poorly most of the season has gone, we needed a day like Thursday where the team pulled off two ninth inning comebacks. (With Chase Shugart earning both wins, exactly like they drew it up.)

However, LoanDepot Park has often been a place where good Phillies vibes go to die. The Phillies’ worst years at the Marlins’ stadium seem to happen when they’re expected to be good and the Marlins are expected to be bad. The Marlins weren’t expected to be playoff contenders this season, but they are in second place (albeit with a losing record) and are coming off a series win over the Dodgers.

Perhaps the three game lead in the standings will cause the script to flip, and the Phillies will be the underdog team that hurts the Marlins’ chances?

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Philadelphia has turned a corner of late, winning three straight games and four of the last five.

With Zack Wheeler set to take the mound, my Phillies vs. Marlins predictions expect the road team to extend its winning streak in Miami.

Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 1.

Who will win Phillies vs Marlins today: Phillies moneyline (-120)

Zack Wheeler showed little rust in his season debut, holding a top-tier Atlanta Braves offense to two runs over five innings while striking out six. The velocity was high, indicating he’s already close to 100%.

If Wheeler is on his game, he doesn’t need much support to grind out wins – and he should get it against the Miami Marlins.

Eury Perez has allowed at least three runs in four of six starts and ranks Bottom-5 on the slate at limiting fly balls and hard contact. That’s cause for concern against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies offense that sits sixth in hard hit rate.

COVERS INTEL: Eury Perez has allowed an alarming 14.9% barrel rate, putting him in the seventh percentile league-wide.

Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (+100)

The Phillies are heating up at the dish. They have scored 36 runs over their past seven, good for an average of 5.14 per game.

Their hard hit numbers against righties are strong and Perez is giving up a lot of quality contact. This is a good setup for them to build on strong recent production.

Miami should struggle early against Wheeler, but they’re unlikely to run him into the ground in just his second start. With a taxed Phillies bullpen behind him after Thursday’s double-header, there’s a clear path to late offense.

Phillies vs Marlins opening odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia (-130) | Miami (+110)
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Miami +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-1.5)

Phillies vs Marlins trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Phillies vs Marlins and game info

Phillies vs Marlins latest injuries

Phillies vs Marlins weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

David Stearns has removed any cloud that might have been hanging over Mets manager Carlos Mendoza amid the team's 10-21 start.

"We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more," Stearns told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change."

Regarding Stearns, DiComo notes that owner Seve Cohen has given "at least some assurances" that his job as president of baseball operations is safe.

Mendoza is in the third and final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Mets holding a team option for the 2027 season.

Stearns' above comments on Mendoza echo ones he gave on April 17, when he expressed confidence in the third-year manager while disagreeing with the notion that there should be more scrutiny on Mendoza.

"No. I think Mendy is doing a really good job," Stearns said. "I think he's putting our players in position to succeed. He's enormously consistent. So, no, I don't agree with that."

Asked how Mendoza was putting players in position to succeed, Stearns elaborated.

"I think both in terms of how he's managing in the clubhouse, how he's getting guys to the right pockets -- whether it's matchups out of the bullpen, the right matchups in games," Stearns explained. "I think he's doing a good job."

Mendoza has a 182-173 career record at the helm of the Mets.

In his first season in 2024, Mendoza oversaw a team that finished 89-73 and made a run to Game 6 of the NLCS.

In 2025, with the Mets' pitching staff largely ineffective in the second half of the season, New York tumbled all the way out of a playoff spot while finishing 83-79.

Stearns hired Mendoza in November of 2023, shortly after his stint leading the front office began. 

Daniel Palencia news:

Friday notes…

• STREAKING: The Cubs have won eight straight home games, the entire last seven-game homestand and the last game of the previous one. The last time a Cubs team won eight straight at home was Sept. 12-30, 2017. That streak was snapped when they lost to the Reds, 3-1, on the final day of the season, and all but one of their starters were lifted after one or two plate appearances. The last time any Cubs team won nine straight home games was Aug. 18-Sept. 2, 2017. The franchise record is 18, set during the team’s overall team record 21-game winning streak in 1935 (the first 18 of those 21 straight wins). (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SCORING FIRST: The Cubs are 7-0 when they have scored first at home. They are 12-5 in all games in which they scored first. In 14 of the 17 games, they did so in the first three innings: four in the first, seven in the second and three in the third. Last year, the Cubs were 33-8 at home when they scored first and 17-23 when they did not. They won 15 straight when they scored first at home from May 5 through July 19. They had two nine-game winning streaks when they scored first on the road. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• GETTING ON BASE: The Cubs are first among all 30 teams in on-base percentage, at .353. The Diamondbacks are 27th, at .308. The only teams lower are the Phillies, .302; Giants, .293; and Mets, .289. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HIT PREVENTION: The Cubs are tied for fifth in fewest hits allowed per nine innings, at 7.6. The Diamondbacks are tied with two teams for 25th at 9.1. The only teams worse are the Nationals, 9.2; Orioles, 9.3; and Phillies, 10.1. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Andre Dawson and Hector Villanueva homered off future Cubs broadcaster Jim Deshaies as part of a five-run first inning and the Cubs went on to defeat the Astros 11-8 at Wrigley Field. It happened 35 years ago today, Wednesday, May 1, 1991.

Cubs lineup:

Diamondbacks lineup:

Colin Rea, RHP vs. Zac Gallen, RHP

Colin Rea was going along just fine when the Dodgers torched him pretty good over the weekend.

That out of the way, Rea has been solid this year (and was last year, too). I don’t think one bad start erases all the good things Rea has done for the Cubs rotation.

Rea started vs. Arizona April 18, 2025 at Wrigley Field and allowed one run in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, probably on a pitch limit (threw 69 nice pitches). That was the crazy game where the D-backs scored 10 runs in the eighth but the Cubs came back and won anyway.

Ketel Marte is 4-for-6 with two homers off Rea, so it might be good to hold him down today.

Remember when Bob Nightengale said Zac Gallen was going to sign with the Cubs? According to this Awful Announcing article, here’s what happened in the Gallen household after Nightengale made that social media post:

“So I was sitting there at breakfast with my dad,” Gallen told MLBFits. “A family friend of ours came over, and he’s like, ‘Oh nice, you’re going to Chicago,’ and I was like, ‘I don’t know what you’re talking about.’ So there was a hectic kind of 20 minutes or so there. I was getting calls from family, and then from my now-wife, was like ‘We’re going to Chicago?’ I’m like, ‘No, I would let you know if we’re going to Chicago.’”

Gallen and his wife actually got married the weekend after that news broke (and un-broke), which only amplifies how wild that report must have seemed in the moment.

So that must have been fun!

Anyway, as you obviously know, Gallen re-upped with the D-backs and has had a pretty good year so far: 3.14 ERA, 1.360 WHIP in six starts. His K rate is down a bit, but otherwise he’s showing that last year was an aberration in an otherwise fine career.

The last time he faced the Cubs, April 19, 2025 at Wrigley Field, they hit him pretty hard (seven hits, six runs in six innings), including home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. If you do go there to interact with D-backs fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Jordan Walker’s first month has contained some of the highest highs any player is ever going to reach, and some familiar lows. How do we rationalize what we’ve seen so far?

We’re about one month into the baseball season for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. In the grand sweep of the season, this is but the opening line. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen thus far. But, if you’re like me and watching essentially every inning, it feels like a lot of baseball has been played. Which brings me to a thought I’ve been wrestling with for the last few games. What’s the rational way to react to Jordan Walker’s start?

Let’s go to caveat land first. He should play the whole season no matter what – this is the year to learn what he’s really got in the tank. It’s still early. We’ve seen two versions of Walker and that will likely normalize as the year goes on. He’s the same age as JJ Wetherholt and has had an odd career track up to this point. (Now, hold these residents of caveat land in your head all the way through – please and thank you!)

Through roughly 30 games, we’ve seen two versions of Jordan Walker. Let’s start with the Thanos version of him first. (Yes, I’m using Thanos positively here as a kind of destroyer-of-worlds-template in favor of the Cardinals.) From the hallowed stretch of April 4th through April 16th, Jordan Walker turned the difficulty level down to Rookie and treated the league like MLB the Show. Let’s just laugh together at some highlights: .370/.408/.848, a .478 ISO, a 246 wRC+, and 7 homers. Try to export those numbers to another country and Walker would be charged with war crimes. 

He ran career lows in groundball rates, sprayed the ball all over the field, and ran a miniscule 6.5% weak contact rate. The eye test confirmed this. Every ball off his bat was a scud missile buried somewhere in the side of the wall or doing architectural damage to the stadium beyond the fence. Every single problem we wanted him to solve was solved to a Sherlock Holmes degree in this microdose of games. 

It went beyond the numbers, though. Walker seemed in control at the plate. He was jumping on hittable pitches early and was patient on balls out of the zone. He didn’t seem to be lunging like Richard Simmons at every slider low and away. The defense was quite improved (still is!) and he was even stealing bases like Victor Scott II. (Or, not like Victor Scott II – yikes.) In a nutshell, it was everything that everyone who roots for the Cardinals had ever wanted for Jordan Walker. He was a national topic – Eno Sarris was buying in!

Ok, now take a deep breath. Remember, there have been two Jordan Walkers so far. From April 17th through this writing (April 29th), Jordan Walker has looked like Old Jordan Walker. As Ecclesiastes says, there is a time for dancing and a time for mourning. Let us mourn together: .216/.333/.243 (the OBP isn’t bad there!), an .027 ISO, a 78 wRC+, and one extra base hit. 

It’s worse than that (do you still have you citizens from caveat land on board?), he struck out 37.8% of the time and doubled his groundball rate from his thermonuclear streak. He’s been lunging at low and away sliders like I lunge at toasted ravioli (just trust me!), and working seemingly every single count to 0-2 immediately. It’s been ugly the last couple of weeks – and it’s been ugly in a recognizable way.

So, let’s step back. What do we make of this first month? It seems to be a matter of perspective. If you told Cardinal fans at the beginning of the year that Walker would have a 151 wRC+ after the first month, they’d probably ask you how someone got ahold of Yadier Molina’s blood for ritual purposes. That’s an unqualified success – no doubt. 

However, it’s more complicated than that because of the nature of his performance. He went from Aaron Judge lookalike to Old Jordan Walker all in the same month. This is where opinions are going to vary. If it scares you to see the old habits rear their heads, then you’ve got all the ammunition you need to worry. If you’re thrilled that we’ve seen Peak Jordan Walker, then you’re probably feeling good that we’ve seen what’s possible from a 23 year old. 

In short, Jordan Walker is a walking Rorschach test. His ink blot can be read in either direction you’d like to read it. Obviously, as he plays more this season, that ink blot will begin to take a more definite shape that we can use to adjust our expectations.

I can’t and won’t tell you how to fan, but I will share my perspective. I’m worried. We have an enormous amount of data that tells us that Jordan Walker may never figure it out. He turned into an MVP for roughly two weeks and then reverted back. I’m not rooting against him. I’m just concerned that his body of work shows that he’s back to the approach and habits that landed him in an early career tailspin in the first place. I’d like nothing more than for Jordan Walker to develop into the cleanup hitter of the future for the Cardinals. I’m not ruling it out by any stretch. His underlying physical gifts are such that he could flip the switch at any second by refining his approach again. That’s what I want. I just don’t know if the Cardinals inkblot is going to deliver.

Let me know how you’re feeling in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!