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The MLB draft is creeping ever closer, taking place exactly one week from today. This is our latest version of what the prognosticators believe will be happening. You can find each of the earlier roundups by clicking on the different links before you see how much things have changed.

Mock draft roundup, 1.0

Mock draft roundup, 2.0

As a reminder, the Phillies will not be choosing their first player until #36 because of passing the second luxury tax threshold too many years in a row, which is a good thing.

MLB Pipeline – Jack Radel, RHP – Notre Dame

Radel’s riding fastball now sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 while holding velocity deep into games. He’s doing a better job of locating a mid-80s slider with depth that has become a solid offering, while his new upper-80s cutter elicits plenty of chases. He lands his 78-82 mph curveball for strikes and mixes in an upper-80s changeup with fade and sink against left-handers.

Though Radel doesn’t have a true plus offering and his pitch shapes are fairly ordinary, he succeeds because of his pitchability and competitiveness. Combining a high release point with good extension gives batters a different look and he pounds the strike zone. He’s a high-floor starter who could fit into the middle of a rotation.

Baseball America – Caden Sorrell, OF – Texas A&M

Sorrell has better physical tools and athleticism than a handful of the hitters who are likely to go in front of him. His 23.9% career strikeout rate means he is probably going in the back of the first round or shortly after it, and the Phillies sound like one of the teams who could take a shot on his power/speed combo and center field profile.

SI – Caden Sorrell, OF – Texas A&M

ESPN – Will Brick, C – Christian Brother HS (Tennessee)

The Phillies love prep athletic-testing standouts at premium positions and Brick fits that profile while being young for the class after reclassifying from 2027. He’s a catcher/shortstop tweener with 25-plus homer upside and feel to get to it in games.

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There's value all across the board this afternoon, and I found three hitters I love to leave the yard.

I break down my favorite home run predictions and MLB player props below.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Jac Caglianone	+377
Andrew Vaughn	+760
Carson Kelly	+860
💲Today's HR parlay	+37907

Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+377)

A man who only seems to generate hard-hit balls is Kansas City Royals up and coming superstar Jac Caglianone. Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's produced a 68.6% hard-hit rate and a 23% barrel rate. Over his last 30 plate appearances, those numbers have climbed to a 73.68% hard-hit rate and a 26.32% barrel rate.

Caglianone draws Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.23 ERA against the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced. During that span, he has also allowed a 46% hard-hit rate, a 13.5% barrel rate, and a 70.2% elevation rate. Those lefties have generated a .583 xSLG and a .332 xwOBA.

The Royals slugger has excellent arsenal coverage against Nola's subpar pitch mix, making this a great spot for the young fella to take the veteran deep this afternoon.

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Home run pick: Andrew Vaughn (+760)

Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn finds himself in a boom spot against Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodríguez. Vaughn enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 80% of Rodríguez's subpar pitch mix.

The Brewers slugger has been tearing up left-handers all season. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .408 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.231 OPS, while generating a 48.8% hard-hit rate.

On the other side, Rodríguez has been torched by right-handed hitters. On the road against them, he is allowing a staggering 77.3% elevation rate and nearly a 40% hard-hit rate. Across the last 90 batted balls he has allowed to righties, they own a .599 xSLG and .356 xwOBA.

We are offered some pretty brutal home run prices regularly, but if +760 does not get your mouth watering against a pitcher allowing the ball to be elevated nearly 80% of the time, while the hitter you are backing is consistently making loud contact, this market is probably not for you.

• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Home run pick: Carson Kelly (+860)

Yet another price I could not ignore this afternoon, Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly to go bye-bye at nearly 9/1. Kelly carries an elite Batters-Box rating this evening, covering 80% of Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore's below-average pitch mix.

Kelly has crushed left-handed pitching this season while consistently making hard contact. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .364 batting average, .618 slugging percentage, and 1.045 OPS, while generating a 46% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrel rate.

Liberatore has struggled against right-handed hitters all season. Away from home, he has allowed them to elevate the ball 67.1% of the time while giving up a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 right-handed batters he has faced, opponents are elevating the ball 72.7% of the time, producing a 41% hard-hit rate and a massive 20.4% barrel rate.

They also own an .855 expected slugging percentage and .433 expected wOBA during that stretch. Sure, Kelly only has four nukes on the season, but with the amount of hard contact he has generated, he probably should have more.

• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Today’s HR parlay

Jac Caglianone	Bet Now +37907
Andrew Vaughn
Carson Kelly

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Yankees needed an emergency starter on Saturday in the wake of Carlos Rodón’s return to the IL—Brendan Beck was the man tapped to do it, and he struggled through 3.2 innings in an eventual 11-4 loss to the Twins. On Sunday morning, the Yankees made the expected move, optioning Beck back to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Angel Chivilli has been recalled in a corresponding swap as the Yankees search for some extra bullpen help.

Chivilli, who debuted with the Rockies at just 21 years old in 2024, made a brief cameo with the Yankees this April, appearing in two games. Chivilli hit the 15-day IL on April 25th with right shoulder discomfort, returning on June 11th and remaining in Scranton. He has pitched to a 1.08 ERA across 12 appearances with the RailRiders this season.

It’s unlikely too many will remember this minor transaction from the offseason, but Chivilli was traded last winter for first baseman T.J. Rumfield, who has enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign in Colorado. The Yankees would certainly like the young right-hander to eventually emerge as a useful option for a bullpen—they’re big fans of his stuff, particularly his changeup, which has flashed elite swing-and-miss potential. But as far as the here-and-now, he’s probably going to be deployed in low-leverage spots—as he did when he popped up earlier in the season.

It doesn’t always feel like it, but Yankees relievers have pitched to a 3.15 ERA this season, which ranks second in MLB behind the Braves. In terms of fWAR, the core grades out seventh in the league. Some individual relievers have struggled, however—Camilo Doval has a 4.81 ERA on the season, and allowed four runs in the eighth inning on Saturday.

With a right-handed starter on the mound for the New York Mets in Sunday’s 12:30 p.m. ET game, the Atlanta Braves unsurprisingly are pivoting back to a righty-focused batting order.

Drake Baldwin is back in the leadoff spot after Mauricio Dubón led off Saturday night, dropping Dubón into the five-hole. Additionally, Dominic Smith gets the start at designated hitter (batting sixth) and Jim Jarvis is back at shortstop and hitting ninth against Mets starter Nolan McLean (5-5, 3.78 ERA).

Over his two career starts against the Braves, Atlanta’s current hitters are a combined 4-for-23 (.174) against McLean. No one has more than one hit and all of the hits are singles, along with a combined eight strikeouts and three walks.

Smith and Mike Yastrzemski have the lone two RBIs for Braves hitters off McLean.

The Mets are largely keeping the same lineup from Saturday, with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in the top two spots, albeit with Soto DHing this time. Luis Torrens replaces Francisco Alvarez behind the plate, and AJ Ewing is in center field, replacing Eric Wagaman, who DHed on Saturday.

Current Mets hitters are a combined 21-for-64 (.328) against Braves starter Martín Pérez (6-5, 3.27). The players you would probably expect are leading that charge. Bo Bichette is 5-for-10 with two doubles, Francisco Lindor is 8-for-19 (.421) with a double, five walks and one strikeout and Juan Soto is 4-for-10 with the only Mets homer off Pérez and three of the four RBIs.

While the Mets have had some success against Pérez, he’s 5-0 with a 2.94 ERA in 11 career appearances (seven starts) against the franchise.

Let’s see if he can keep that rolling and the Braves can inch closer to a Mets mop on a sweltering Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

Recaps

[AZ Central] Del Castillo’s blast, Kelly’s new look ignite Diamondbacks in victory – “I wanted to come out aggressive today and just kind of let it fly,” Kelly said. “Just kind of let the chips fall where they may. Not try to be too fine or too precise. “Just be aggressive and get back to competing.” That manifested itself in a repertoire that was up across the board; each of Kelly’s six pitch types came in above their season averages in velocity, three of which registered more than 1.5 mph hotter than usual. “What I was doing wasn’t working and what I was doing was the opposite of competing and being aggressive and being on the attack,” Kelly said. “Clearly, it wasn’t working, and I just got to the point of, in my mind, it couldn’t get any worse.”

[Arizona Sports] Did Merrill Kelly find some answers in Diamondbacks’ Fourth of July win over Brewers? – He drew 13 whiffs after inducing only four in his last start in Tampa Bay. He struck out six batters, tying a season high, several of which with runners in scoring position to keep the scoring down. “I feel like the league is adjusting to what I try to do, and I need to adjust back,” Kelly said. “I think I haven’t really done a very good job of doing that this year. And I think that just comes with establishing the fastball. I think everything, just like it has for however long baseball’s been around, they pitch off the fastball and everything else plays off the fastball. So going into today, I wanted to make that an emphasis and be on the attack and try to find myself in better counts than I have up to this point.”

Team news

[Dbacks.com] Carroll, Rodriguez to rep D-backs at All-Star Game – “It means a lot to me, because I’ve been in this game for quite a long time, and to have the opportunity to go to an All-Star Game for the first time is just something amazing,” Rodriguez said… [He] credited the Arizona defense behind him for his success this year. “That’s No. 1 factor for sure, because they always play really good behind me,” Rodriguez said. “And second has been that I’ve been great to locate my pitches where I want, have a really good relationship with the catchers that catch me, have a really good plan, and we just go out there and execute it.” Both players had made plans for the All-Star break, with Carroll having some pre-wedding festivities of a friend he was going to attend, while Rodriguez and his wife were going to spend the few days off in the Southern California area.“I think he’ll understand,” Carroll said with a smile.

[Burn City Sports] Was trading Jake McCarthy a massive mistake by the Diamondbacks? – When the lineup isn’t getting production from its biggest names, the lack of depth becomes obvious. That makes McCarthy’s emergence elsewhere even more difficult to ignore. His historic performance for Colorado wasn’t just a career night. It was a reminder of the player Arizona developed but ultimately decided it could live without. Two home runs, six RBI, a stolen base, and relentless pressure on opposing pitchers showcased the complete offensive package the Diamondbacks once believed could be part of their future. The frustrating part for Arizona fans isn’t simply that McCarthy is producing. It’s how he’s producing.

[AZ Central] In a superstar year, Luis Gonzalez embodied 2001 champion Diamondbacks – “Spring training went well, I felt comfortable, and I got off to a great start in the opening series. You get out of the gates good, you start swinging the bat well, your confidence grows. That’s what happened to me. It seemed like every series I felt more confidence going out there and I was starting to feel like the guys were relying on me, counting on me, and I loved that part of being one of the leaders of a ballclub.” Gonzalez became — and remains — the Diamondbacks’ ultimate ambassador, making himself accessible to fans wherever he goes and always greeting them with a warm smile and genuine inclusion. His easy-going, good-guy aura has always made folks feel special, and he has never lost that charm because it’s simply him.He’s not too good to be true; that’s just who he is.

And, elsewhere…

[Milwaukee Journey-Sentinel] Brandon Woodruff leaves start early again with concerning ‘dead arm’ feeling – Just as he did the last time he faced the Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff departed his start early with an apparent injury July 4 at Chase Field. Woodruff came out for the fourth inning with a 85.8 mph fastball and never got above 87.3 in a strikeout to Gabriel Moreno. After that, seven of his final eight pitches before being removed were changeups, including four straight between 73 and 75 mph – more than 7 mph below his season average. An injured list stint is all but a guarantee for Woodruff now the second time around with the ailment.”It’s kind of the same thing he had before,” Murphy said. “It’s in the same area, same spot. That cyst develops. He’s got that tear in the labrum there and that cyst develops. It flares up. It’s probably going to be an IL.”

[ESPN] 2026 MLB All-Star Game rosters: Snubs, other takeaways – At least the NL added all those starting pitchers and no extra relievers beyond the three mandatory voted in by the players — Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran and Raisel Iglesias. If there’s one thing we don’t need, it’s more relievers in an All-Star Game. Oh, don’t worry, we’ll get to the AL. Who should start the game on the mound? Misiorowski has arguably been the best story of the first half, and that’s kind of the point of the All-Star Game. On the other hand, the game is in Philly and Sanchez leads in bWAR and is tied in fWAR. Considering the cost of an All-Star ticket, let’s give the ball to Sanchez and make the home fans happy.

[MLB] Trout becomes 3rd AL player elected to start 11 All-Star Games – Trout leads all active players in All-Star Game selections, but hadn’t been named one since 2023 after suffering a torn meniscus in his knee that plagued him in ‘24 and ‘25. It’s also extra special for Trout because the Midsummer Classic is being held at Citizens Bank Park, which is located just 40 miles from his hometown of Millville, N.J. When manager Kurt Suzuki announced in front of the team that Trout had been elected as an All-Star, the Angels had Trout’s wife, Jessica, and his two sons, Beckham and Jordy, on FaceTime, which made Trout emotional. Trout also fought back tears when speaking to reporters about what it meant to him. “It was definitely on my list when it came out, so it’s pretty cool,” Trout said. “Just the kids, friends, family. It just means a lot.”

And since Mel Brooks recently turned 100 years old…

Young Frankenstein (1974)

• Rating: B+
• Dir: Mel Brooks.
• Star: Gene Wilder, Marty Feldman, Peter Boyle, Teri Garr.

While Wilder is front and centre, the supporting cast are uniformly excellent. Feldman is a real standout, and it makes you wonder what he might have done, save his untimely early death. But the women – not just Garr and her knockers, Madeline Kahn and Cloris Leachman as well – are almost as impeccable. Though, for whatever reason, I think I laughed hardest at Inspector Kemp, with his false arm of 1,001 uses. This is the second time Kenneth Mars has stolen the show in a Brooks movie, after his turn as Nazi playwright Franz Liebkind in The Producers. It’s all almost entirely glorious, and will certainly ensure you won’t be able to watch the classics in quite the same way again. Or sing Putting On The Ritz either.

Read more

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (40-45) won 7-5 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning scoring 4 runs on a Biggio solo home run and Whitcomb 3 run home run. They got another run in the third on a Spence sac fly and 2 more in the 4th inning on a wild pitch and groundout. Gordon got the start and went 5 innings allowing 5 runs, though just 2 earned. The game was called after 6 innings as Sugar Land won 7-5.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .372 in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 2B: 1-for-2, R, HR, RBI, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 2-for-4, R
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB
• Shay Whitcomb, LF: 2-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI

• Colton Gordon, LHP: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (WIN)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (37-43) won 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

Dombroski started for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 2 runs, 1 earned over 6 innings of work. The Hooks tied the game in the 4th inning on a Whitaker solo HR and Rosario RBI double. In the 5th, Bush gave the Hooks the lead with a solo home run. The pen pitched well tossing 3 scoreless innings as they closed out the 3-2 win.

Note: Austin has a .855 OPS this season.

• Trevor Austin, LF: 2-for-3, 2 2B, BB
• Will Bush, C: 1-for-2, R, HR, RBI, 2 BB
• Tyler Whitaker, RF: 2-for-4, R, HR, RBI, SB
• Hemmanuel Rosario, C: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI

• Trey Dombroski, LHP: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (WIN)
• Alex Santos, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (SAVE

A+: Asheville Tourists (26-53) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Asheville offense got on the board in the first inning on a Call RBI single. They got another run in the 2nd inning on a Brown solo home run. DeVos got the start for Asheville and allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings. Asheville got a run in the 6th on a Moss sac fly to take the lead. The bullpen allowed a couple runs though and the offense was unable to respond as Asheville fell 4-3.

Note: Moss is hitting .398 for Asheville this season.

• Caden Powell, LF: 0-for-3, R, BB, 2 SB
• Nehomar Ochoa, DH: 1-for-3, R, BB, 2 SB
• Chase Call, RF: 1-for-4, RBI, SB
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 1-for-4, SB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-3, 2 2B, RBI
• Marcus Brown, SS: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB

• Nolan DeVos, RHP: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Jordan Carr, LHP: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (40-39) lost 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on a Luciano RBI single. Weber started for the Woodpeckers and allowed one unearned run over 3.1 innings. The offense got another run in the 3rd inning on a Luciano solo home run. Carrera pitched in relief allowing 3 runs over 4 innings. The Woodpeckers’ offense was quiet the rest of the way as they fell 4-2.

Note: Luciano has a .770 OPS this season.

• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-4, R
• Waner Luciano, RF: 2-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Josh Wakefield, LF: 2-for-4, 2B

• Charlie Weber, RHP: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ethan Pecko – 6:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 2:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 12:05 CT

FV: TBD – 1:00 CT

I’m going to start here again, there are still only five teams with more wins than the Cubs through July 4. On a pace to win 89 games. Go math. The Cubs played a game and lost. That lowered their overall win pace by an equivalent number. We’re getting to the point in the season where that pace doesn’t move a lot day to day and it takes streaks to move the number one way or the other.

Pete Crow-Armstrong was named an All-Star Saturday night. The Cubs are the fifth best team to date in the NL and they got a single player. Not that slots are apportioned relative to team strength, you could be a very bad team and have two superstars who make the team. Or a very good team that doesn’t get multiple players.

Ben Brown was the only other Cub who I felt flashed star level performance for any significant length of time. I didn’t think he’d done enough and then he got hurt. So this felt correct. I didn’t look over the rest of the roster or any of the usual noise out there that so and so didn’t belong there and so and so got snubbed. There are more good players than All-Star spots and typically the every team should be represented ruled leads to one or two guys who maybe otherwise wouldn’t be there. The most I’ve ever done is feel a guy was good enough to deserve consideration. I’d always rather they just got the days off. But I recognize it’s cool for the players to get to go at least once or twice in a career.

On the field in Chicago Saturday night, there wasn’t a lot of positive going on. Hat tip to Cubs pitchers, three runs over nine is a fine performance. They ended up using five pitchers to do it. But they didn’t really use many pitchers Friday in the lopsided loss, so not a huge deal. They were able to keep it close in case the offense ever came to life. This is exactly how you want to use your pen to try to steal a game. It just wasn’t to be on this day.

The Cub offense was limited to five singles, four walks and a hit batter. 10 baserunners, no slug. That’s a tough way to mount any offense. To make matters worse, Pete Crow-Armstrong was on four times with a single, two walks and a hit by pitch. That means the whole rest of the team reached base six times over nine innings. This is the same old story, the Cubs are one superstar player and a bunch of average to good players.

I don’t follow other teams with any high level awareness. So I don’t know how this compares to anyone else. The Cubs don’t have much chance against a team that is executing on either or both sides of the plate. On Friday, the Cardinals offense was locked in and on Saturday their pitchers shut the Cub offense down. The Cubs didn’t mount any real resistance either day. Not great. Not a lot of fun. Breathing some life into a Cardinals team that has been reeling a bit over the last few weeks. They certainly needed these games more and they’ve gotten them.

Three Stars:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong. Single, two walks, hit by pitch. He did get caught stealing once.
• Michael Conforto had a pair of singles and a walk. Two players were seven of the 10 runners.
• Caleb Thielbar retired all four batters he faced, striking out one.

Game 89, July 4: Cardinals 3, Cubs 0 (49-40)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.097). 1-1, 2 BB, HBP, CS
• Hero: Michael Conforto (.063). 2-3, BB
• Sidekick: Tyler Ferguson (.038). IP, 5 BF, H, 2 K, HBP

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.158). 0-4
• Goat: Miguel Amaya (-.138). 0-3
• Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.111). 0-3

WPA Notes: Michael Busch (-.108) was just behind Dansby Swanson for the last spot here.

WPA Play of the Game: This whole exercise never feels quite as useless as when the play of the game is the very first play of the game. JJ Wetherholt started the game with a homer and that held up as the top play. (.100)

Cubs Play of the Game: Shōta Imanaga faced Jordan Walker with runners on first and second with no outs in the third, the Cubs down two. He got a double play ball for the first two outs. (.076)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 88 Winner: Other was the winner with 46 percent of the vote and the suggestions were Alex Bregman or none of the above. It was definitely that kind of game.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Michael Busch/Michael Conforto +12
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton/Dansby Swanson -10
• Seiya Suzuki -12.5
• Caleb Thielbar -13

Up Next: Game three of the weekend series Sunday afternoon. Javier Assad (6-1, 4.53) gets another start. Last time out he was used as a reliever after he’d had three straight starts. The Padres scored four runs against him in 2.2 innings of work, but the Cubs had a good sized lead when he came in. I’m not sure Assad has a ton of experience working in that situation where you have a big lead and you are just trying to finish the string. We all know the old don’t walk anyone and go after hitters, but that’s not really the Javy style.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (4-5, 5.33) starts for the Cardinals. He’s coming off of a good start, against the Braves of all teams. He allowed just one run in five innings of work. Back on May 31, the Cubs were maybe his best start of the year. He held them scoreless over 5.1 innings, allowing three hits and one walk.

Javy’s whole style reads as “find a way.” He seems to always work into and out of trouble. This whole weekend series with the Cardinals feels like that for the team as a whole. Try to get out of the trouble, limit damage. That hasn’t worked for two days. Maybe, hopefully, the third time will be the charm.

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The Toronto Blue Jays head into the series finale in a get-right spot with Trey Yesavage on the mound against the Seattle Mariners and Emerson Hancock. Toronto’s bats are cold, yet Andrés Giménez is bucking the trend, and he headlines my card on Sunday.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for this Sunday, July 5 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions

Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet: Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 total bases (-135)

Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock is a tricky customer, equally as stingy against righties (.634 opponent OPS) as lefties (.647), but Andrés Giménez is the guy I trust to beat him.

The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop had a big Friday, ripping a key RBI double, and like most of the lineup, he went quiet in Saturday’s blowout loss. I’m betting on the bounceback.

Giménez is Toronto’s hottest hitter over the last seven days, with a .750 OPS and .417 slugging in that stretch. I’d play this until -145 today, which is where I think the value dries up.

If you can grab the current number, lay it with confidence, because Giménez is Toronto’s best bet to spark the offense.

COVERS INTEL: Andrés Giménez owns a .725 OPS in 27 career games against the Mariners, comfortably above his .694 career mark, and he’s shown he can produce in this ballpark with clutch homers here in last year’s ALCS.

Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

For the same-game parlay, I’m chasing +500 value again. I’ll start with the Blue Jays moneyline at +110. Saturday was rough, but that’s fair value with Trey Yesavage on the mound, especially with Seattle missing Julio Rodríguez. 

Speaking of Yesavage, I like his Over 5.5 strikeouts. He didn’t clear the number last time against the Mets, but he flashed the best command I’ve seen from him all year and worked deep. 

Finally, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will go Over 1.5 total bases. He profiles well against Emerson Hancock, and even through his struggles, I like his chances to stack a couple of singles, a double, or more.

Blue Jays vs Mariners SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Blue Jays moneyline
• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Mariners home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)

Blue Jays fans know Vladdy isn’t at his best right now, fighting through a slump and a sore back, but on Sunday, the first baseman is Toronto’s best shot to go deep, even if it’s been a statistical long shot all year.

Emerson Hancock lives off a strong, well-located fastball, and Guerrero has been essentially a pure fastball hitter this season, batting .317 against the heater with a .416 slugging mark.

Three of Guerrero’s four homers have come on the fastball, and all four have come on the road, right where he is today. I’d play this until +550 and keep it to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Seattle -130
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Seattle -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Blue Jays vs Mariners trend

Trey Yesavage owns a 2.22 ERA on the road this season, giving the Blue Jays a live shot as underdogs in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and game info

Blue Jays vs Mariners latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Mariners weather

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The Nationals ended up sending two players to the All-Star game in Philadelphia. Those two players are CJ Abrams, who will be the NL’s starting shortstop, and James Wood. It was neat to see the moment when Blake Butera announced that those two were going to the All-Star game. However, I want to talk about two players who did not make the cut, but were arguably deserving.

They were not slam dunk All-Stars like Wood and Abrams, but you can certainly make the case that Foster Griffin and Luis Garcia Jr. were snubbed. Both have had outstanding seasons, and are a big reason why the Nats sit over .500 this deep into the season. This team was supposed to be a bottom feeder, but they are not.

We figured that Wood and Abrams were going to have big years. However, the emergence of Griffin and Garcia has helped put this team over the top. The first guy I want to talk about is Griffin, who has been an absolute revelation this season.

After coming back from Japan on a 1-year $5.5 million deal, fans were not sure what to expect out of Foster Griffin. It seemed like another instance of the Nats dumpster diving. However, it has been so much more than that with Griffin. His 7 pitch arsenal has translated seamlessly to MLB. Griffin does not throw hard, but he finds ways to outthink and outexecute hitters on the mound.

He is truly a joy to watch take the ball every fifth day. On the season, Griffin has a 2.87 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 103.1 innings. He crossed the 100 inning and 100 strikeout threshold in his last start, though Griffin said he was more proud of the inning milestone. Griffin has 12 starts of 5+ innings with 1 or fewer runs, which is tied for second in baseball with Jacob Misiorowski.

That sort of consistent excellence is All-Star caliber in my opinion. I will concede that the NL starting pitching pool was stacked this year. However, I do think Griffin deserved to go over Paul Skenes, who is having a down year by his standards. There is still a decent shot we see Griffin in the All-Star game, as you have to think he would be one of the top candidates to replace a pitcher when someone drops out.

While Griffin has been consistent all season, Luis Garcia Jr. made an insane late push to become All-Star caliber. Garcia is on one of the hottest runs in Nats history. He has a 1.394 OPS in his last 15 games with 9 homers. With CJ Abrams slumping and James Wood just getting out of a mini-slump of his own, Garcia has been carrying the Nats offense. On the season, Garcia now has 18 homers 62 RBI and an .864 OPS. 

As I mentioned above, this is one of the best runs I have ever seen from a Nats hitter. It is truly up there with Kyle Schwarber’s run, the peak of Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper’s entire 2015 season. Name an insane heater by a Nats hitter, and what Garcia is doing right now is in that tier.

The timing of Garcia’s run is a big reason why he is not an All-Star though. His numbers have been climbing at a rapid pace in recent days. However, the voting for the All-Star game was probably wrapped up a few days ago. That would not be meaningful for most players, but Garcia has like 5 homers in the last few days.

Like starting pitchers, the first base position is pretty stacked in the NL. With famous veterans like Matt Olson, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman all having very good seasons, it is tough for an upstart like Garcia to break through. As much as we love Lui, the average baseball fan is probably going to want to see those veterans more.

Neither of these are outrageous snubs the way James Wood not starting was. However, both had rock solid cases to make the team. Griffin being a replacement pick would not surprise me at all, but I doubt Garcia will be going unfortunately. Both should use this as fuel to motivate them in the second half.

While neither are All-Stars, Nationals fans truly appreciate what both have done this season. They have been huge reasons for this team’s turnaround. We are playing meaningful games in July for the first time in years. Luis Garcia Jr. and Foster Griffin are a big reason why we are above .500 and still in the Wild Card mix.

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The Chicago Cubs will be looking to avoid the sweep this afternoon, and they're healthy -150 favorites to do so.

Given Chicago's recent form against left-handed pitching, I'm backing the home team with my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-150)

Matthew Liberatore is having a miserable season across the board. He owns a 5.34 ERA, and his xERA of 5.55 is even higher, ranking him in the ninth percentile league-wide.

He’ll have his hands full against the Chicago Cubs. They've feasted on lefties over the past five weeks, slotting first in wOBA, ISO, and OPS. This is a great spot for their offense to awaken.

While the St. Louis Cardinals also have a solid matchup against Javier Assad, he excels at inducing grounders, and the Cards rank first in GB% over the past month.

Back Chicago to -160.

COVERS INTEL:Matthew Liberatore owns a -17 pitcher run value, putting him in the second percentile.

Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-105)

After back-to-back duds offensively, the Cubs are primed to get back on track. They have hit .279 vs. lefties since June 1 while ranking first in almost every major power category.

Even with 11 mile per hour winds blowing in, they should be able to string together extra base hits against Liberatore.

Assad sits in the 23rd percentile in xERA and the second percentile in hard hit rate. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact, and the Cardinals — who are fourth in wOBA vs. righties on the road over the last month — are likely to capitalize.

Bet to -115.

Cardinals vs Cubs weather

Temperatures in the low 70s are expected with the wind blowing in. Boost to the pitchers.

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +130 | Cubs -150
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Cubs -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Cardinals vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have cashed the moneyline in 15 of the last 21 games for +7.45 units and a 26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.

How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info

Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries

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Juan Soto was officially voted to the National League All-Star team yesterday. Soto was voted a starter and finished second in votes among NL outfielders, trailing only Philadelphia’s Brandon Marsh. He will join Marsh and Andy Pages in the outfield and will presumably start in left.

Soto enters play today with a .296/.404/.560 slash line after going 1-for-4 in last night’s ugly 14-3 loss. Soto leads all National League hitters in OPS (.964), OBP (.404) and wRC+ (163) and has 18 home runs, 39 runs scored, and 41 runs batted in over 70 games played this season.

This will be the first time he’s been selected to the All-Star team as a Met. Last year, Soto got off to a slow start, which sunk his chances at making the team (despite putting up solid numbers heading into the break. Soto rebounded to finish third in NL MVP voting. This is Soto’s second time being voted an All-Star starter and his fifth nod overall. He also became the youngest player to be voted to the All-Star team for four different teams.

Unsurprisingly, Soto is the lone Met to make the team (at least for now). Luke Weaver probably had the strongest case among other Mets players, but middle relievers generally are low on the list for All-Star consideration. There is always the chance another a player could be added to the roster down the road as players withdraw from the game.

As a final bit of Soto news, he did express interest in participating in the Home Run Derby, saying, “I don’t know. I don’t know. I’ve definitely been thinking about it. We’re still thinking. Philadelphia, it seems like it’s going to be fun. But I will see. I will see.”

The San Diego Padres could not find an answer for Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the result was a 3-0 loss at Dodger Stadium that extended the San Diego losing streak to eight games. The Padres had a promising start to the first inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. singled to start the game and Gavin Sheets singled later in the inning to put runners on the corners with two outs. Ty France came to the plate and struck out swinging on three pitches and that proved to be the beginning of the end for San Diego.

The Padres managed just two additional hits over the next eight innings, with only one of those being allowed by Yamamoto. The Dodgers right-hander completed seven innings, allowing a total of three hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts. The third hit allowed by Yamamoto came in the top of the second inning when Xander Bogaerts singled to open the inning.

The final hit for San Diego came in the top of the eighth inning when Tatis hit a two-out double of Brock Stewart. Alex Vesia came in from the Los Angeles bullpen to face Jake Cronenworth and recorded a strikeout to end the inning, stranding Tatis at second base. Tatis finished the game 2-for-4 as the leadoff hitter, while Cronenworth and Manny Machado the second and third hitters in the Padres lineup both finished the game 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.

The pitching did what it needed to do and kept San Diego in the game. Wandy Peralta opened the game with a scoreless inning before giving way to Griffin Canning. The right-hander pitched four innings, allowing one run on two hits with two walks and four strikeouts, which was one of his better outings of the season especially against a potent Los Angeles lineup albeit without Shohei Ohtani. Kyle Hart allowed a run in two innings of work and that came in the form of a solo home run from Freddy Freeman. Mason Miller, who has not had regular work throughout this losing streak, pitched the eighth inning and hit the leadoff batter who advanced to second on a ground out. Miller then allowed a single to Freeman and the Dodgers scored their third run of the night.

The Padres will have a chance to break their losing streak and avoid a sweep today at 4:20 p.m.

Padres News:

• Jackson Merrill has not had the season anyone expected and while there is still time for him to get things turned around, Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ballquestions whether he has the right people in place to help him do that.

• Mason Miller is the lone All-Star selection for the Padres evoking memories of seasons past when another closer, Trevor Hoffman, was the only San Diego player worthy of the opportunity.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes the Padres should consider trading Miller if their freefall in the standings continues.

• Kavares Tears came through in extra innings to help the Fort Wayne TinCaps pull out a win.

• With Freddy Fermin on the IL for concussion protocol after another foul ball off his facemask, the Padres were in need of a catcher, and they welcomed back Luis Cammpusano off the IL.

Baseball News:

• Yordan Alvarez hit a walk-off home run to lead the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.

• The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Chicago Cubs another loss at Wrigley Field.

• Chris Sale recorded his 500th strikeout as a member of the Atlanta Braves and helped his team beat the New York Mets.

• Byron Buxton helped lead the Minnesota Twins to a win over the New York Yankees.

• The San Francisco Giants slipped past the Colorado Rockies, 6-4.

• All-Star rosters were announced for the game later this month in Philadelphia.