Arizona GM Mike Hazen hasn’t been shy about discussing what the team us looking to add as baseball heads towards the trade deadline. While the team does currently occupy a wild-card spot, there are clear areas for improvement. Speaking on MLB Network Radio over the weekend, he said “I probably need a little more thump in the lineup, probably a little more power, probably need to get a little more left-handed.” It makes sense. The D-backs currently sit 28th in the majors by OPS against right-handed pitching, at just .665. [They’re 4th vs LHP, at .771] So, on that basis, signing left-handed Kepler makes sense. Except there are a few things about the signing which don’t immediately make sense.
1. Kepler isn’t very good.
Over his career, the numbers are decent enough. A career 101 OPS+, and better than that against right-handed pitching (.770 OPS there, against .653 facing lefties). But he’s now thirty-three years old, and the past couple of seasons have shown father time to be catching up with him. In 2024-25, over 232 games for the Phillies and Twins, his OPS+ dropped to 89. In 715 PA there against RHP, his OPS was .689, hardly much better than the Diamondbacks are already posting. A lot of his success there is now well in the past, unless you think he’ll experience an Arenado-like resurrection in the desert.
However, it’s worth noting a couple of points. The team OPS vs. RHP may be .661, but that is significantly boosted by the success of Corbin Carroll (.813 OPS there) and Nolan Arenado (.791). The bar to improve the team is therefore considerably lower than .661. You would be looking to Kepler to replace the likes of Adrian Del Castillo (.638), Ryan Waldschmidt (.622) and Jorge Barrosa (.431), all of whom should be firmly ushered away from the plate with a rightie on the mound. Kepler is an improvement over the play we’ve got out of their spots this year – and especially over the last month. He doesn’t strike out much and has a little more oomph than most options we currently have.
2. The roster crunch
Even before Kepler was signed, eyes were being cast forward to the upcoming returns of Carlos Santana, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jordan Lawlar. All of them are now on their rehab assignments: Santana and Lawlar with the Aces, while Gurriel begins his in the Arizona Complex League today. Who will they replace on the current roster? The addition of Kepler would make the situation even more congested, especially in the outfield. LuJames Groover and Del Castillo are likely on thin ice, and may well be optioned back down in the coming week, when Santana and Lawlar are ready. But neither of them play the outfield.
It is possible Kepler is just being signed as a depth piece. In term of credible outfielders in Reno right now, it’s basically Kristian Robinson, and that’s it. The “rehab assignment” in Reno will give Arizona a chance to see what he can do. If he looks like he can play a role with the big-league club, he’ll be brought up to the D-backs. If not, he’ll be released, will likely get picked up elsewhere (because even teams that have no postseason chances still have to fill out a lineup card), and the Diamondbacks will barely be on the hook for anything. There isn’t that much difference to a minor-league deal, the likes of which get signed all the time. Last June saw the team sign Anthony Gose and Seth Brown as depth.
There is another possibility, and while I’d say it’s probably unlikely, is worth mentioning. This could be the first piece in a larger puzzle. Despite recent results, the biggest weakness on this team remains the rotation, with three current starters at an ERA+ of 90 or worse. There is a top-five (probably top-two) pitcher who is going to be on the market, in Tarik Skubal, plus potential other options such as Sandy Alcantara. Any package to get one of these pitchers likely starts with an MLB ready prospect. For the Diamondbacks, the area of greatest strength is outfielders. Kepler is a low-risk signing who can provide coverage there if a trade works out, and be easily jettisoned if one does not.
3. The PED problem
It has been interesting to see how the team’s attitude towards PEDs has changed and softened over the years. The team certainly hasn’t been immune from this problem. Matt Williams was named in the Mitchell Report as using HGH and steroids while on the roster. There was also the federal raid in 2006 on the house of reliever Jason Grimsley. Various minor league players have also failed drug tests, perhaps most notable Jose Herrera, who was suspended for 50 games after failing a drugs test in 2018. But the only Arizona major-leaguer I can think of to have failed a drug test was Domingo Leyba in spring 2020.
Going back, there have been rumblings that the Diamondbacks have traded away or let go players who have been linked to PED use. [And, no, I shall not be naming names] This previous position against signing proven users was driven by ownership. In 2013, Nick Piecoro wrote, “Their hardline stance appears to be spearheaded by Ken Kendrick, the club’s managing general partner and a longtime critic of PED users. When Jason Grimsley’s house was raided in 2006, Kendrick made sure the Diamondbacks immediately cut ties with the reliever — and even tried to have his contract voided. Team sources say Kendrick continues to discourage the acquisition of players, or even the hiring of coaches, who have ties to PEDs.”
This did not stop the team trading for Starling Marte, who had served an 80-game suspension in 2017. He was signed three years later, but only played 33 games for Arizona before being traded to Miami. Said Kendrick at the time, “When his incident occurred several years ago, he stood up and was totally remorseful for what he had done, realized it was wrong. I’m a believer also in second chances in life… That’s something I’m sure he wished weren’t on his record, but I don’t think he should have been excluded from being considered and ultimately we made the trade and we’re very hopeful he’ll go and perform.”
And now, here we are, signing someone on an active suspension for PED use. I haven’t been able to confirm any statement being made by Kepler in regard to the suspension, so the “stood up and was totally remorseful” escape clause doesn’t appear to be in effect here. I’m not going to lie: I personally – and this is just Jim here, opinion vary among SnakePitters – find it disappointing for the team apparently to be compromising a laudable moral stance, for a fringe upgrade. If Kepler makes the team, I’m going to find it hard to cheer for him. Minor league PEDs are one thing: I understand it’s a dogfight down there. But when you’ve already reached the show, the very pinnacle of the sport? Yeah, I find that unacceptable.
It’s also worth noting that, if the Diamondbacks reach the post-season, Kepler will still be ineligible. Though if we need him on the playoff roster, that’s probably a bigger problem. But if Kepler has been called up and is contributing enough during the regular season, we will then be without his services for the games that matter most. We’ll see what unfolds. Meanwhile, have a poll!