The Vancouver Canucks (21–41–8) have finally reached the end of their eight-game March home stand, with their final game taking place against the Los Angeles Kings (28–25–15) tonight. Vancouver has gone 2–5–0 so far through the home stretch, with their most recent match being a 5–3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. The Kings, one of the handful of Pacific Division teams battling for a wild card spot in the playoffs, last played in a 3–2 shootout loss against the Calgary Flames.
Vancouver will be seeing lots of the Kings as they prepare to round out their 2025–26 season. Tonight’s game marks the first of three that they’ll play in against Los Angeles ahead of the season end, with their other matchups coming on April 9 in California and April 14 in their final game at Rogers Arena this year. The last time these two teams faced off was on November 29 in a 2–1 overtime loss for Vancouver.
With Los Angeles still looking for a playoff spot, and Vancouver officially eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the week, tonight’s game could be one of a few that the Canucks play spoiler for in the Kings’ post-season wishes. Los Angeles has lost their last four games, though they have picked up two overtime loss points during this stretch, while yet another defeat would put them in an even deeper point deficit than before. If Vancouver stays consistent to some of their efforts through the home stand, they may end up being a big factor into the Kings missing out on the playoffs.
Players To Watch:
Elias Pettersson
Fresh off a night that saw him score his 500th NHL point, Elias Pettersson will be a player to watch on the Canucks tonight. He had two power play helpers in his team’s loss to the Ducks, with his line also scoring his team’s third goal of the game. Including this effort, the forward is now up to five points in his past four games. Adding to that, he is two goals away from becoming ninth-all time in franchise goals scored — a milestone that would see him pass former Canucks captain Bo Horvat on the list.
Artemi Panarin
Prior to his team’s loss to Calgary, Artemi Panarin had scored a goal in six of his past 10 games. Since joining the Kings via trade, he’s scored six goals and 11 assists in 15 games played. His most recent run of play has been even more impressive, with the forward putting up a six-game point streak before the loss to the Flames. As Los Angeles’ leading scorer, he’ll be a player to watch come tonight.
Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Kings left wing Kevin Fiala (22) and Vancouver Canucks right wing Brock Boeser (6) battle for the puck during the overtime period at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Vancouver Canucks (21–41–8):
Points:
Elias Pettersson: 15–28–43
Filip Hronek: 8–33–41
Brock Boeser: 17–20–37
Jake DeBrusk: 15–18–33
Linus Karlsson: 13–17–30
Goaltenders:
Thatcher Demko: 8–10–1
Kevin Lankinen: 8–24–5
Nikita Tolopilo: 5–6–2
Jiří Patera: 0–1–0
Los Angeles Kings (28–25–15):
Points:
Artemi Panarin: 25–49–74
Adrian Kempe: 26–33–59
Kevin Fiala: 18–22–40
Quinton Byfield: 17–23–40
Brandt Clarke: 8–30–38
Goaltenders:
Darcy Kuemper: 17–13–13
Anton Forsberg: 11–11–5
Pheonix Copley: 0–1–0
Game Information:
Start time: 7:00 pm PT
Venue: Rogers Arena
Television: Sportsnet
Radio: Sportsnet 650
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The Chicago Blackhawks, who defeated the New York Islanders 4-3 on Tuesday, are back in action on Thursday night. They come in 4-3-3 in their last 10 as they continue to develop young players who will impact them in the future.
This will be a match against the Philadelphia Flyers, who come in 6-3-1 in their last 10. For Philly, they sit five points below the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. The Blackhawks have a chance to spoil any chance of a miracle run for them.
Scouting Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Flyers are having a better year than anyone would have expected before it began, but they have a lot of work to do. There are good young players on their roster, but more steps must be taken for the organization to get over the hump.
Barkey-Zegras-Tippett
Bump-Dvorak-Konecny
Grundström-Cates-Michkov
Glendening-Couturier-Hathaway
Sanheim-Ristolainen
York-Drysdale
Seeler-Juulsen
Ersson
Vladar
Trevor Zegras has had a healthy bounce-back season, his first with the Flyers after a big trade with the Anaheim Ducks. Playing in their top six has given him a boost.
Travis Konecny didn’t make Team Canada at the Olympics after being on the 4-Nations Face-Off team, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t deserving. He is a great player that Chicago’s defense must have an eye on when his line is out there.
Matvei Michkov is on the third line, and his season isn’t going the way he had hoped after a strong rookie year, but the skills are there for him to change a game at a moment’s notice.
Philadelphia’s defense is a big reason that they are even in the race at all. Travis Sanheim was a Team Canada guy in Milano Cortina, and he plays a key role on this team in the NHL.
Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam York, and Jamie Drysdale lead the depth on the blue line, as they all bring different strengths that Blackhawks forecheckers/back-checkers must pay attention to.
In goal, the Flyers have found success with either Samuel Ersson or Dan Vladar in the net. Vladar started on Tuesday against the Columbus Blue Jackets, so expect Ersson against the Blackhawks.
Projected Lines, Defense Pairs, & Goalie For Chicago
The Blackhawks are going to have Sacha Boisvert making his NHL debut. This comes one game after Anton Frondell made his debut. The Blackhawks are continuing to get younger by inserting more prospects that are ready to compete and make the team better.
Greene-Bedard-Frondell
Bertuzzi-Nazar-Lardis
Burakovsky-Donato-Mik
Teravainen-Boisvert-Slaggert
Vlasic-Levshyunov
Kaiser-Rinzel
Del Mastro-Crevier
Knight
Anton Frondell is on the first line, as he should be. His play in his first post-draft season earned him that opportunity before he ever even stepped onto an NHL sheet. He impressed in his NHL debut, a 4-3 win over the New York Islanders.
Sacha Boisvert isn’t at the same level as Frondell, but multiple tough two-way players like him are needed on every team. Playing on the fourth line to dip his toes into the NHL waters is perfect
It looked a little strange for Teuvo Teravainen to be on the fourth line in the last game with Landon Slaggert and Sam Lafferty, but it makes a lot more sense with Boisvert down the middle instead. This line has some skill and a little bit of toughness that should make waves in all three zones.
Arvid Soderblom was excellent in the win over the Islanders. Now, expect Spencer Knight to get the nod against the Flyers. Each goalie will be heavily relied on as the season comes to a close.
How To Watch
The game can be heard locally on AM 720 WGN in the Chicagoland area. To view this game, it can be found on CHSN locally. Nationally, it is available to stream on ESPN+. The puck will drop shortly after 6:00 PM CT.
For action-packed issues, access to the entire magazine archive and a free issue, subscribe to The Hockey News at THN.com/free. Get the latest news and trending stories by subscribing to our newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or creating your own post in our community forum.
Well, here we are at the earliest-ever home opener for the Cubs. You already know how I feel about March baseball in Chicago (they generally shouldn’t, ever). And the forecast for the opener Thursday has temps falling from an early high of near 60 into the 40s. There’s a chance of rain that hopefully will hold off until the game is over.
For more on the Nationals, here’s Sam Sallick, manager of our SB Nation Nationals site Federal Baseball.
There is a lot of “new” for the Washington Nationals this year. They have a new front office, a new manager and a brand new coaching staff. It is a lot of change for an organization that had the same GM/manager combo for nearly a decade before this.
Paul Toboni and Blake Butera want to modernize the Nationals process. They have also provided an infusion of youth. Toboni is just 35 and Butera is the youngest manager in the league at just 33. The roster is also very young, especially on the position player side of things.
The Nats star players at the plate are James Wood and CJ Abrams. Wood had a tough spring after tailing off in the second half last year. However, he has some of the most impressive raw power in the game. Abrams saw his name in trade rumors, but unlike fellow Juan Soto trade piece MacKenzie Gore, he stayed in DC.
Speaking of Gore, the Nats pitching staff has looked very solid this spring. They are short on big names, but they’ve been throwing the ball well. Opening Day starter Cade Cavalli has been throwing the ball as well as anyone. He threw 14 scoreless innings this spring, which helped get him the Opening Day nod despite just 11 career starts.
Cavalli has an impressive arsenal. His mid to upper 90’s fastball and his power curve provide a strong foundation. However, he added a sweeper to give him a better weapon against right handed hitters, who he struggled against last year. I am bullish on Cavalli and think this will be a breakout year for him.
Behind him, the Nats actually have a few veterans in the rotation. Cubs fans know Miles Mikolas very well, and he is in DC now. They also picked up Zack Littell and Foster Griffin. I am intrigued by Griffin, who dominated in Japan the last few years before coming back to the States this offseason.
The Nats probably won’t be good, but hopefully they are better to watch this season. This new regime is rebuilding the rebuild in a lot of ways. However, I trust these new guys to get it right eventually.
Fun facts
The Cubs have a .486 winning percentage against the Nationals franchise since it began play in 1969 as the Montreal Expos. But they are .519 (69-64) since the team moved to Washington after 2004.
They are .526 overall at home vs. the Expos/Nationals, including .523 since 2005.
From 2021-24, the Cubs were 9-4 when hosting the Nationals. Last year, they won the series opener, then lost the next two games.
NOTE: The Cubs do not have starters officially listed for Saturday or Sunday as of the time of this post. Horton and Imanaga are listed here because that’s the order they last pitched in Spring Training games after Boyd. The Cubs are one of only three teams (also Angels and Rockies) that don’t have a starter listed for Saturday. Those three and the Braves are the only teams that don’t have a starter listed for Sunday.
Times & TV channels
Thursday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
I don’t see any reason the Cubs shouldn’t take at least two of three here.
Up next
The Cubs host the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field in a three-game series beginning Monday evening.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 13: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves and Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies speak during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park on September 13, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last year’s National League East race ended with the Phillies (96-66) winning their second consecutive division crown, while the Mets (83-79) and Braves (76-86) both underperformed expectations and missed the playoffs entirely. The Marlins (79-83), meanwhile, came close to .500 as they showed promise and play a key role in ending the Mets’ postseason dreams on the final day of the regular season, and the Nationals (66-96) showcased their potential with their young, up-and-coming talent, despite finishing in the cellar.
Heading into Opening Day, the NL East race promises to be one of the most exciting ones to watch around the league. The Mets are projected to bounce back and contend for their first division title since 2015, while the Braves are expected to rebound and the Phillies once again have a roster built for a run at the postseason. So let’s review where things stand at the start of the 2026 season, and what Mets fans might expect from the team’s division rivals.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are coming off back-to-back NL East crowds and four consecutive playoff appearances, though they have failed to make it beyond the Division series in either of the previous two seasons after going to the World Series in 2022 and reaching the NLCS in 2023.
In many ways, the Phillies are “running it back”, as they enter 2026 with a very similar roster to the one they showcased last year. Their key offseason moves were re-signing Kyle Schwarber to a 5-year, $150 deal—Mets fans will recall that the club was also reportedly in on the Schwarber sweepstakes—and catcher J.T. Realmuto to a three-year deal. The Phillies also, very recently, extended two cornerstones of their rotation in left-handers Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, which should offer them rotation stability for years to come. In terms of new faces, the club added slugging outfielder Adolis Garcia and reliever Mitch Keller. On the departure side, Philadelphia parted ways with Nick Castellanos, Harrison Bader, and Matt Strahm. The team will start the year without ace Zack Wheeler as he recovers from thoracic outlet surgery, but after a “successful spring,” he is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be back in April.
Both ZiPS and PECOTA have the Phillies taking a step back in 2026 and relinquishing their NL East crown, and that’s to be expected for a team that’s a year older and not necessarily better. Fangraphs projects the Phillies to win 87 games, which is actually down from their projection of 91 wins and an NL East crown from late January. This update lands them squarely in third place in the NL East but would secure them the second Wild Card in the National League. Baseball Prospectus is a little more bullish, projecting them to finish at 84.9 wins in their up-to-date model on March 25. The Phillies will once again go as far as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber can carry them, as their veteran core remains strong but, again, one year older. Their rotation remains a strength, even as they wait for Wheeler’s return, and they have the benefit of a full season with closer Jhoan Duran, whom they acquired ahead of last year’s trade deadline.
Atlanta Braves
The Mets’ collapse stole the headlines around the league and took a lot of heat off the Braves, who unexpectedly fell flat on their faces and finished in fourth place after seven straight postseason appearances. The Braves, who won six straight division crowns from 2018-2023, fell below the .500 mark for the first time since 2017.
Atlanta enters the year with a new skipper at the helm, as Walt Weiss is set to succeed Brian Snitker, who held the position for ten years but chose to step down into an advisory role. Weiss previously served as Snitker’s bench coach. On the field, the team added reliever José Suarez and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski. They also claimed Osvaldo Bido from the Yankees, inked Rowdy Tellez on a minor league deal, and brought in old friend Dom Smith, who is in position to potentially make the roster out of spring. Atlanta will be managing some injuries heading into this year, specifically to Spencer Strider, who begins the year on the injured list with a left oblique strain. Joey Wentz (torn ACL) and Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow inflammation) both begin the year on the 60-day IL.
Their roster is still loaded with talent, and the project models seem to agree that they will get back on the horse in 2026. Both ZiPS and PECOTA have them narrowly missing a division crown, falling just behind the Mets but handily securing the top Wild Card spot in the NL. Fangraphs sees them winning 88 games (matching the Mets) but falling short in the end. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, has them at 88.7 wins, just shy of the Mets’ simulated projection of 89.4.
Ronald Acuña Jr. remains their key player, and a healthy and elite season from their star outfielder could make all the difference (emphasis on ‘healthy’). There’s also Matt Olson, who played 162 games for the fourth straight season and finished with a 136 wRC+ and a 4.7 fWAR. Atlanta also desperately need a bounce back year from Austin Riley, who struggled last season and has not come close to his All-Star self from 2022 and 2023. The biggest bright spot for Atlanta last year was catcher Drake Baldwin, who earned Rookie of the Year honors after a stellar debut season, and he will now be thrust into a more prominent role going forward.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins surprised some folks last year when they came close to .500 and hung around the NL Wild Card picture until the late stages of the season—some of this is certainly due to the subpar competition, no doubt. They also flirted with trading ace Sandy Alcántara, who missed all of 2024 and struggled to regain his form in 2025 until well after the All-Star break. You can be sure that the team will again explore a trade this year, if they are not realistically in a playoff spot—Alcántara’s contract expires at the end of the 2026 season.
The Marlins did what they do best, which is trade their talented players for prospect capital. They made two headline moves in this vein: trading right-hander Edward Cabrera to the Cubs in a package centered around outfielder Owen Caissie, and trading left-hander Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects. It’s worth noting that Cabrera is under team control through 2028, and Weathers through 2029, which brought in a bigger return. To fortify their roster, the club signed utility player Christopher Morel and acquired Esteury Ruiz from the Dodgers. They also acquired right-hander Bradley Blalock from the Rockies and left-hander Kade Bragg from the Twins.
Unsurprisingly, their season last year has done little to sway perception of their team or inspire much from the projection models. They are, pretty much across the board, viewed as the fourth team in this division, as ZiPS sees them finishing 75-87 and PECOTA has them basically right around that with a sim W total of 74.7. In both scenarios, they fall well short of the third Wild Card spot, failing to earn a postseason spot for the third straight yea after their Wild Card appearance in 2023. They still have some bright young players to watch, including Xavier Edwards and 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers. At the very least, Mets fans should take comfort in the fact that New York does not play Miami during the final week of the season—their final games against the pesky Marlins are September 7-9 at loanDepot Park.
Washington Nationals
Despite some promising young talent, the Nationals still came close to 100 losses and seem to be nowhere close to contention in the division. They confirmed those thoughts by trading one of their best veterans, pitcher MacKenzie Gore, to the Rangers for a package of five minor leaguers. On the major league side, they made some minor moves, adding Zack Littell, Foster Griffin, and Miles Mikolas, all on relatively affordable one-year deals. The rest of their roster was filled in by waiver claims.
The Nationals are projected to finish right near the bottom of the league yet again. ZiPS sees them finishing the year 69-93, a three-game improvement from their 2025 results. This would give them more wins than just the Colorado Rockies, and would tie them with the projected win total of the Chicago White Sox. PECOTA, meanwhile, is a bit more pessimistic, simulating a total of 67.1 wins for Washington, ahead of just the Rockies (59.4) and Angels (65.5) in their model. This year will be all about the growth of rising stars James Wood and CJ Abrams, and their continued growth will be the main point of concern for Washington in what is ultimately another rebuilding year.
Projections and Predictions
The Mets have been a popular pick to win the 2026 NL East title, and not just from ZiPS and PECOTA (see standings below) but also from several seasoned baseball journalists at MLB, ESPN, SNY, Newsday, the NY Post and more. However, as we have learned far too many times, projections and predictions are a far way off from reality. With that said, the Mets find themselves in a good position and should be able to size up well against the Phillies and Braves as they look to capture their first division crown in over a decade.
Good morning. Unless you’re manager Tony Vitello or on the Giants, in which case I just say I hope tomorrow is a better morning for you. Because the Yankees’ spanked the Giants 7-0 in the first game of the year.
There was one thing that happened last night that has never happened in an official MLB game before. The Yankees’ José Caballero made the first ever Automatic Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge. The call was upheld, so we’re still waiting on that first overturn.
One thing the Giants did last night was break the weirdest streak in baseball. After 19 seasons of having a different left fielder start for San Francisco on Opening Day, Heliot Ramos made his second-straight Opening Day start for the Giants. This streak goes back to Barry Bonds’ final season in 2007.
Speaking of Bonds, on the broadcast last night he revealed how he almost became a Yankee, only to hang up on George Steinbrenner when the “Boss” wanted an answer immediately. There’s been some question of the accuracy of the story, as Steinbrenner was officially banned from baseball during the time Bonds described.
Jordan Schusterman has a preview of the Tony Vitello era in San Francisco. For someone with no professional experience before showing up to camp, he has certainly won over a lot of grizzled MLB veterans.
The Red Sox will be serving "Lobstah Poutine" at Fenway Park this year! This ballpark food features crispy fries, lobster meat, clam chowder and crispy bacon all served in a custom lobster boat 🤤
I never thought I say that the Marlins did something right that the Red Sox messed up. But this looks delicious.
The Marlins' new "Machete" menu item is served in a custom carrying case 😳
This TWO-FOOT homemade flour tortilla is griddled on the flat top with melted mozzarella and Oaxaca cheeses, house-marinated carne asada, smoky guajillo pepper sauce, salsa verde and cilantro 👀
May 16, 2022; Oakland, California, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Royce Lewis (23) and Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (25) celebrate after defeating the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Ah, a fresh season. Unlimited potential. Anything is possible! Or at least, it feels that way until the moment your favorite team fails to score after having a runner on third base with no outs, or if the bullpen blows a five-run lead. That is when you remember that baseball, while beautiful, may be the most frustrating game of all.
Alas, the Orioles will enter yet another brand new campaign anyway. This one does genuinely begin with lofty aspirations. They were one of the busiest clubs over the winter, and on paper they look like a team that could do some great things. At the very least, they should improve upon their 75 wins from a season ago
The Twins, on the other hand, seem like they could be headed in the opposite direction. They went 70-92 in 2025, which cost Rocco Baldelli his job as manager. Derek Shelton will take the reins. He was last the skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2020 through May of last year, when he was canned after a 12-26 start to the year. It’s not the most aspirational of hires, but Shelton is familiar with the organization, having served as bench coach back in 2018 and ‘19.
This past offseason was highlighted more by what the Twins did not do rather than what they did. Neither Joe Ryan nor Byron Buxton was traded. That would have made sense if the organization then went and made any sort of impact additions to their roster, but they largely sat on their hands. Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers were the “marquee” free agents brought on. While each of them are fine major leaguers, they won’t elevate this team at all.
Instead, their hopes will be pinned on Buxton and Royce Lewis being the best versions of themselves. That is asking a lot of Buxton, entering his age-32 season, who always seems to miss some amount of time. The 126 games he played in 2025 was his most in a season since 2017. Lewis gets hurt a lot too. He played in 106 games last year, the most he has ever played as a big leaguer.
The rotation will be without Pablo López. He had Tommy John surgery in February and will miss the entire 2026 season. He only tossed 75.2 big league innings last year due to a right shoulder strain that became a forearm strain during rehab. But they were stellar innings as he had a 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP prior to being shut down.
Who knows what will happen in the AL Central. Once again it looks like one of the league’s weaker divisions. So maybe the Twins could get some luck and sneak up on a few clubs. But the more likely outcome is that they deal with major injuries again and slump to be one of the worst team’s in the AL. That was the case in 2025, and they still managed to go 6-0 against the Orioles. That can’t happen again for an O’s team with postseason aspirations.
Game 1: Thursday, March 26th, 3:05 p.m., MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (9-3, 1.81 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Joe Ryan (13-10, 3.42 ERA in 2025)
Rogers threw just 109.2 innings last year, but he was so dominant that he earned some consideration for the AL Cy Young award anyway. OK, it was just one down-ballot vote, but it’s hard to argue the logic. The southpaw was spectacular, generating 5.4 bWAR, only 1.1 bWAR less than the award winner, Tarik Skubal, who threw nearly twice as many innings. He deserves the start here even if he is a strong candidate for some negative regression.
Ryan is likely to be one of the most sought after players at this year’s trade deadline if the season goes poorly for the Twins. The 29-year-old had a 3.42 ERA and struck out 194 over 171 innings last year, and he won’t hit free agency until after the 2027 season.
Game 2: Saturday, March 28th, 4:05 p.m., MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (1-1, 2.53 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Taj Bradley (6-8, 5.05 ERA in 2025)
The great X-factor of the 2026 Orioles could be Bradish. We know how good he can be. Over the last three seasons he has a 2.78 ERA and is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. Of course, he only has 240 total innings across those three seasons due to Tommy John surgery in mid-2025. So the big question will be how healthy he can remain. The O’s are likely to be conservative with him early, shortening starts, and skipping his turn occasionally. But when he does pitch it should be dynamite.
It’s not usually a good sign when the Rays trade away a pitcher. That’s an organization that tries to hoard pitching talent as much as possible, but they were OK with swapping Bradley for Griffin Jax last year. Bradley was even worse (6.61 ERA in 31.1 innings) for Twins than he was for the Rays (4.61 ERA in 111.1 innings). Minnesota is hard-pressed to find starting options, so Bradley will get plenty of chances to prove himself.
Game 3: Sunday, March 29th, 1:35 p.m., MASN
RHP Shane Baz (10-12, 4.87 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Bailey Ober (6-9, 5.10 ERA in 2025)
The Orioles have talked about Baz as the rotation’s ceiling-raiser all offseason. In essence, they swap him into Grayson Rodriguez’s place in the rotation. Right now, that looks like a wise decision. Rodriguez is opening the season on the IL for the Angels while Baz looked quite good in his final spring tuneup against the Nationals. There is no denying the stuff. It’s great. Now he just needs to harness it.
Ober was a disappointment in 2025. After back-to-back seasons worth 3.0 bWAR and an ERA under 4 in 2023 and ’24, he flopped badly last year. His numbers this spring were rather ugly too. Across 13 spring innings he had a 1.769 WHIP and struck out just 4.2 batters per nine innings. You gotta take those stats with a grain of salt, but his trajectory is not what you want if you’re a Twins fan.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 25: The Opening Week logos are painted on the field at Petco Park on March 25, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I’ll save the big kahuna question for the Braves’ Opening Day, which is tomorrow. Today is Opening Day for most other teams, so we’ll go with this no-stakes variant.
Normally, I’m pretty excited for Opening Day. Baseball season has a great rhythm, and I look forward to transitioning into it every year. That said, I indulged in a paragraph of how MLB is getting less interesting to me yesterday, and it follows from there that I’m less excited about this season. Maybe some of that is related to the Braves directly — it’s just less interesting to watch a sprinter try to navigate around banana peels than nearly any other story or framing device (other than a rebuilding entirely non-contender), and the self-inflicted season-ruining change they made offensively last year is like the ultimate excitement-excoriator for me.
So, I dunno. I think I’m less excited for this season than for any for 2018-onward. Yesterday’s snoozefest of an Opening Day contest between the Yankees and Giants didn’t help. Nor the fact that I usually take a day off on Opening Day, but the Braves have a night game so there’s no point in pushing it.
But, none of that has to apply to you. So, tell me, where’s your relative excitement meter at?
Oct 6, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Fans cheer prior to game two of the NLDS round between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Usually, this question of the day part is where we ask a niche question about the team. Maybe it’s about someone’s approach at the plate, their recent work at that craft, or what you think about a player’s recent play.
Today is simple. It being the Phillies’ home opener (and season opener), we’re looking for your predictions on how the season will go. You can be as specific as you wish, you can be as broad as you wish. But let’s talk about our prognostications together. Come back later today when we here at TGP give you our predictions for the season so you can all look down on us and ridicule us when we’re wrong.
GOODYEAR, AZ - FEBRUARY 19: Kyle Manzardo #9 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a photo during the Cleveland Guardians photo day at Goodyear Ballpark on Thursday, February 19, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Nic Antaya/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Get to know the 2026 Cleveland Guardians’ Opening Day Roster with the cheat sheets introducing you to the players you need to know below:
First, our hitters. You can save and paste on to a Word Document and print.
Now, the Guardians pitchers:
For friends, family and co-workers who want a brief refresher on which players will be part of this year’s unfolding Guardians’ story, please feel free to share the above images. Can’t wait to root for our guys!
The Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers begin their 2026 campaign this afternoon with the series opener of a three-game set at American Family Field.
Jacob Misiorowski gets the baseball for the hosts, and my White Sox vs. Brewers predictions are eyeing him to be lights out on Opening Day.
Read more for my MLB picks for Thursday, March 25.
White Sox vs Brewers predictions
White Sox vs Brewers best bet: Jacob Misioroski Over 5.5 strikeouts (-152)
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski was solid in a brief 15 appearances in his rookie season in 2025, pitching to a 5-3 record and 4.36 ERA. The youngster has serious swing and miss stuff, and that was clear from his 87 strikeouts in just 66 innings of work.
While the righty has never faced the Chicago White Sox, they were 15th in the majors last season in team strikeouts with nearly nine per game.
Misiorowski cashed the Over in Ks in two of his three starts in spring training, and the adrenaline will be at an all-time high for his first career Opening Day start.
He’ll miss numerous bats in the series opener.
COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski struck out a lot more hitters in Milwaukee last year, racking up 53 Ks in 36 2/3 innings of work compared to just 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 frames on the road.
White Sox vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
William Contreras is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime vs. White Sox starter Shane Smith with a pair of singles. That's a small sample size, but he also swung it relatively well in spring training, collecting at least one hit in seven of his eight appearances.
Sal Frelick has faced Smith three times, and his lone hit was a double. He also had a double in two of his final three Cactus League contests. The outfielder also ranked in the 87th percentile in sprint speed, making it easier for him to stretch a single into a double or to ensure he gets into second on a hard-hit ball in the gap.
The Brew Crew is 8-1 in its last nine meetings with Chicago, and the last time the White Sox came to American Family Field, Milwaukee swept them. Misiorowski will throw a gem and set the tone.
White Sox vs Brewers SGP
William Contreras to hit a single
Sal Frelick to hit a double
Brewers moneyline
White Sox vs Brewers home run pick: Christian Yelich (+540)
Christian Yelich had a bounce-back campaign in ‘25, smacking 29 home runs. That was his highest total since 2019, when he went deep 44 times. Twenty-five of his bombs last year were off right-handed pitchers, and Smith surrendered 17 long balls in 2025, with 13 coming off the bat of lefties.
Yelich also went yard 14 times at home. He got some confidence back last year, and I like him to start the campaign with a bang.
White Sox vs Brewers odds
Moneyline: Chicago +154 | Milwaukee -184
Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-138) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+116)
Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
White Sox vs Brewers trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 86 of their last 142 games (+21.35 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Brewers.
How to watch White Sox vs Brewers and game info
Location
American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date
Thursday, March 26, 2026
First pitch
2:10 p.m. ET
TV
Chicago Sports Network, Brewers TV
White Sox starting pitcher
Shane Smith (2025: 7-8, 3.81 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcher
Jacob Misiorowski (2025: 5-3, 4.36 ERA)
White Sox vs Brewers latest injuries
White Sox vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Welcome back to the Fantasy Baseball Closer Report. This first 2026 edition will feature my season-opening closer rankings. All year long, we'll be breaking down the last week in saves for every team and highlighting some relievers on the rise and potential stash candidates for saves.
Let's get started!
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Mason Miller - San Diego Padres
Edwin Díaz - Los Angeles Dodgers
Cade Smith - Cleveland Guardians
Andrés Muñoz - Seattle Mariners
Jhoan Duran - Philadelphia Phillies
Miller comes in as the number one reliever to start the season. With the departure of Robert Suarez, manager Craig Stammen made it clear early this spring that Miller would be assuming the closer role. The 27-year-old right-hander carries over a 21 1/3-inning scoreless streak from last season, striking out 42 batters to just nine walks and four hits across his last 20 regular-season appearances. He put his talents on display in the World Baseball Classic, striking out ten batters over four scoreless innings for the United States.
Elite talent, track record, and now he's bringing the trumpets to Los Angeles for the defending champion Dodgers. You can make the case for Díaz as the game's top closer. Coming off an excellent bounce-back campaign, the 32-year-old veteran brings a career 2.82 ERA and 253 career saves.
This might seem like jumping the gun, placing Smith among the top three closers, but there's no denying the talent. He's been one of the game's best relievers over the last two years, posting back-to-back 100-plus strikeout seasons in a setup role for the Guardians. Smith took over the closing role down the stretch in Cleveland following Emmanuel Clase's suspension and finished with 16 saves. Now set to close full-time for a team that has created numerous save chances in recent years, Smith has the skills to finish as the most valuable closer.
Muñoz was in Smith's position last season, an exceptionally talented young reliever poised for his first full season as closer. He made good on the upside, converting 38 saves with a 1.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts over 62 1/3 innings. It's the persistent walk issues that keep Muñoz just behind the top three. Still, he's solidly among the best in baseball.
Rounding out the top tier and the last of this elite grouping of closers in drafts, Duran is coming off his best season, in which he posted a 2.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 70 innings while converting a career-high 32 saves. The 28-year-old right-hander pitches to a little more contact, generating a whopping 65% ground ball rate while still collecting a solid share of strikeouts and limiting walks. The high ground ball rate does make him a bit more susceptible to a higher WHIP than the relievers ranked above him. Though that's just splitting hairs.
▶ Tier 2
Devin Williams - New York Mets
David Bednar - New York Yankees
Aroldis Chapman - Boston Red Sox
Daniel Palencia - Chicago Cubs
Ryan Helsley - Baltimore Orioles
This next tier features a group of closers that are all incredibly skilled, yet come with a slightly elevated level of risk. That starts with Williams, who will be looking to bounce back with the Mets after a disappointing season with the Yankees. The 31-year-old right-hander struggled to a 4.79 ERA over 62 innings while cycling in and out of the closer role. Though the underlying skills suggest he was more of the pitcher he's always been, the one with a 2.45 career ERA. And he still collected 90 strikeouts. There's a great chance we get that bounce-back season from Williams.
Next up is Bednar, who stepped in for Williams down the stretch to finish the season as the Yankees' closer, converting ten saves for New York and 27 for the year to go with a 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts over 62 2/3 innings despite being demoted by the Pirates for three weeks at the start of the season.
Chapman is coming off perhaps the best season of his 16-year career. It was certainly one of the best from a skills perspective as he posted a career-low 6.6% walk rate. But the improvements actually started in the second half of 2024. He was able to carry over, ending a volatile four-year stretch and posting a 1.17 ERA with 85 strikeouts and 32 saves across 61 1/3 innings with the Red Sox. The fact that Chapman is now in his age-38 season seems to be the only red flag.
The next emerging elite young closer, Palencia, enjoyed a breakout season with the Cubs, converting 22 saves with a 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 52 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old right-hander had some helium in later drafts this spring after putting his talents on display during the World Baseball Classic, tossing five scoreless innings with nine strikeouts for Team Venezuela. The concern with Palencia is his injury history, as he's missed time with a shoulder injury in each of the last two seasons.
Helsley had a down year after converting 49 saves with a 2.04 ERA in 2024. He finished the year with a 4.50 ERA and 21 saves across 56 innings with the Cardinals and the Mets. Helsley was actually worse down the stretch in a setup role with New York, giving them a 7.20 ERA over 20 frames. This season, he's set to operate as Baltimore's full-time closer and could be in for a bounce-back season.
Jeff Hoffman - Toronto Blue Jays
Raisel Iglesias - Atlanta Braves
Emilio Pagán - Cincinnati Reds
Ryan Walker - San Francisco Giants
Kenley Jansen - Detroit Tigers
Pete Fairbanks - Miami Marlins
Trevor Megill - Milwaukee Brewers
Josh Hader/Bryan Abreu - Houston Astros
We get a step down in either skills or situations in this next group, starting with Hoffman, who, despite collecting 33 saves for the Blue Jays, wasn't nearly the save pitcher he was in Philadelphia. He had some odd splits, with his underlying numbers suggesting he wasn't as bad as his first-half stats indicated, nor was he as good as his improved second-half surface stats. Still, the strikeout stuff remained, and that's good enough to project a bounce-back.
Iglesias turned his season around after the team briefly went away from him as the closer. That decision may come easier if he struggles again, given that the Braves brought in last season's National League saves leader in Robert Suarez. Still, expect Iglesias to handle the ninth inning out of the gate for as long as he's effective.
Pagán displayed nearly identical skills over the last two years, but had a 4.50 ERA in 2024 and a 2.88 ERA in 2025 while converting 32 saves. The true difference between the two seasons came down to a .351 BABIP and a .200 BABIP. The volatility is likely a product of pitching in Cincinnati, as his home and road splits last season exhibited (3.60 ERA at home, 1.88 away).
Walker would've come in a little further down the list before Spring Training after he finished last season with a 4.11 ERA and just 17 saves. The Giants seem to be trusting that he'll bounce back, as they didn't bring anyone in behind him to compete for save chances. There was some thought that it could be Joel Peguero, but Peguero will open the season on the 15-day injured list with a hamstring injury.
Jansen is still going strong as he enters his 17th MLB season. The 38-year-old right-hander converted 29 saves with a 2.59 ERA across 59 innings with the Angels last season. Now 24 saves away from 500 for his career, he's set to get the majority of save chances with the Tigers. Though Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest could still factor into the mix on occasion.
Fairbanks was able to stay on the mound all season for the first time in his career with the Rays, converting 27 saves with a 2.83 ERA across 60 1/3 innings. The strikeouts have been down over the last two years, coinciding with a slight decline in velocity. Perhaps that helped Fairbanks avoid the injured list while pitching effectively enough to get the job done in the ninth inning. He'll operate as the primary closer in Miami.
Things get riskier with a couple of high-ceiling plays to round out the tier. Megill has been excellent when on the mound and off the injured list. He converted 30 with a 2.49 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 47 innings last year, but missed time with an elbow strain late in the season. Abner Uribe filled in for Megill and held the role through the postseason. Megill looked excellent this spring, and while he should get the bigger share of save chances, Brewers manager Pat Murphy has indicated that he'll be smarter with all of the reliever workloads, potentially spreading out the save chances.
Another situation tough to project, Hader ended last season on the injured list with a left shoulder strain and starts this season on the 15-day injured list with a biceps issue. There's no doubt that when the 31-year-old left-hander is healthy, he's the solidified closer for the Astros. But until then, Bryan Abreu is set to fill in. Abreu has been perhaps the best and most reliable high-leverage reliever in baseball over the last several seasons. But he's raised some concerns with some struggles on the mound this spring, posting a 5/7 K/BB ratio over seven innings of work.
▶ Tier 4
Griffin Jax/Garrett Cleavinger - Tampa Bay Rays
Seranthony Domínguez - Chicago White Sox
Dennis Santana - Pittsburgh Pirates
Robert García/Chris Martin - Texas Rangers
Carlos Estévez - Kansas City Royals
We're not quite at last resort levels here, but you're not exactly feeling secure in the saves category if relying on this group. Jax is by far the most talented and should provide some category value regardless of his role. He had his worst season by results in 2025 but displayed some of his best skills, including a career-high 35% strikeout rate. The Rays are sure to utilize a committee in the ninth inning, so expect ratio help and strikeouts, and hope that he ends up leading the team with 15-20 saves.
The White Sox signed Domínguez in free agency and immediately made their intentions known in naming him the team's closer. The 31-year-old right-hander has flashed upside throughout his career, and even set a career high with 79 strikeouts across 62 2/3 innings with the Orioles and Blue Jays last season. What will get Domínguez in trouble is his high walk rate. Still, his swing-and-miss ability and role as a full-time closer made him worthwhile as an RP2 during draft season.
Santana won't wow you with his numbers. He had one of the lowest strikeout rates among the closers discussed so far. Still, he got the job done with a 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 16 saves over 70 1/3 innings with the Pirates last season. While manager Don Kelly has indicated that Gregory Soto could see some save chances, particularly against a left-handed-heavy lineup, Santana should be expected to get most of the ninth-inning work as long as he's effective.
It's odd to see last year's MLB saves leader this far down the rankings to start the season. Estévez was already a big regression candidate after his 2.45 ERA did not match the underlying skills, including an 11.9% K-BB rate. He did little to squash any concerns this spring, giving up four runs with a 3/4 K/BB ratio while showing significantly diminished velocity. Big red flag here.
▶ Tier 5
Riley O'Brien/Jojo Romero - St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Sewald - Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Beeter - Washington Nationals
Hogan Harris/Mark Leiter Jr./Justin Sterner - Athletics
Taylor Rogers/Cole Sands - Minnesota Twins
Jordan Romano/Drew Pomeranz - Los Angeles Angels
Victor Vodnik - Colorado Rockies
Now we're in desperation territory. For many of these situations, we'll have to see how things play out, starting with St. Louis, where Riley O'Brien and Jojo Romero are expected to work in a committee. They converted six and eight saves in 2025, respectively. Matt Svanson and Ryne Stanek are names to watch that can work their way into save opportunities.
The Diamondbacks brought Sewald back on a one-year deal. He made enough of an impression this spring for manager Torey Lovullo to name him as a potential closer candidate. Sewald is the most experienced reliever in the bullpen with 86 career saves and will likely get the first chance at running with the closer role.
The Nationals have another ambiguous situation. Beeter appears to be the leading candidate. He possesses some strikeout ability but struggles mightily with control, walking 17.3% of batters last season. He'll need to make significant strides there if he's to emerge as a consistent late-inning option.
The remaining closing candidates are hardly worth a look outside the deepest of leagues. The Angels placing Kirby Yates on the 15-day injured list to start the year came as a bit of a surprise. It paves the way for Jordan Romano to work his way into save chances early on, likely in a committee with left-hander Drew Pomeranz. And as far as the Rockies go, well, they're just punting wins and saves as some of us do.
95-67, first place in the AL East: The time is now! It’s not a perfect Red Sox team, but it’s the best Red Sox team they’ve fielded so far this decade, and its time for them to start making serious waves in the American League. There’s enough talent here where the goal should be to win the division and the pennant.
— Matt Gross
89-73, second place in the AL East: I don’t know why, but it feels like there’s something missing with this team.I like the pitching staff, but the lineup leaves a little something to be desired. Just one or two injuries and the offense could be seriously lacking. I think it’s a good team, but I see one of the Blue Jays or Yankees finishing ahead of them in the regular season. Maybe I’m just too conditioned to the Wild Card Red Sox, though.
— Jacob Roy
92-70, second place in the AL East: If they had gone out and acquired the middle-of-the-order power bat that was publicly stated as a priority for the offseason, I might feel differently, but I still have Toronto a notch above Boston at the moment. I don’t care how they looked on Opening Night, the Yankees running back the same squad and a staff that is mostly injured entering the season is lunacy. The Wild Card game will be at Fenway in 2026.
— Bob Osgood
90-72, second place in the AL East. This is a good team, kind of like last year, with a lot of improvements. The Roman Anthony-less September is looming like a shadow over everything Breslow has built here. Will a run of lefties shut down the roster? We know Duran and Abreu looked better against southpaws this spring but will it carry over? Can Trevor Story repeat his healthy year? Largely I think “yes” to these questions. But some will probably be “no.“ And that’s the difference between 90 wins and projecting, say, 95.
— Mike Carlucci
92-70, second place in the AL East. I think it’s immensely doable. Not adding a big bat is holding them up from taking the division, in my eyes, but putting the attention into the defense and rotation will pay off.
— Maura McGurk
This team sure looks an awful lot like the Seattle Mariners of recent vintage to me: A pitching rotation that could be the best in the game, but a lineup filled with question marks that could go through some ugly stretches this season. Over the past five years, those Mariners have averaged 88.6 wins, and that sounds about right to me. But the Mariners have been in a division with only two other legitimate playoff contenders, and I see three others in this AL East. This team definitely could win 92+ games and the division, but there’s just too much uncertainty on the roster for me to predict that. 88-72, third place in the AL East.
— Dan Secatore
94-68, first place in the AL East. Pretty simple calculus for me, folks: the offense is at least comparable to the 89-win team from 2025, while the pitching has certainly been improved by a considerable margin. It’s a tough division, yes, and maybe I’m too big of an optimist in your eyes. But hope springs eternal, and I think we can make some big strides in 2026.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
Who will have the most pleasantly surprising season?
I’m the Johan Oviedo guy, so I’m supposed to say Johan Oviedo, but his fastball shape in his final spring training start was concerning, to say the least, so I’ll pivot. Just about everyone is counting Triston Casas out. If he can get healthy, I’m willing to bet he’ll hit his way into the lineup. He’s too talented not to become a good player somewhere, at some point, so why not this year?
— Jacob Roy
Let’s go with Caleb Durbin here. His acquisition to play third base was one of the more interesting moves of the offseason, one that left the Brewers without a “true” third baseman themselves. Known as a strong contact hitter, I think that Durbin’s defense is what might truly become standout, leaving the Red Sox at worst with a solid enough infield to not be a liability and, at best, a team that excels finally with the glove. He’s still an unknown quantity going into his age-26 season, but I think the team will be well-served not having a sieve at third, not to name names.
— Jake Reiser
With Romy Gonzalez not ready for Opening Day, the infield bench options will have watchful eyes set upon them by Red Sox Nation. While pennant races usually aren’t won or lost by the bench, there are key moments down the stretch that are defined by a good pinch hit or a heads-up web gem by a guy not in his usual position. Andruw Monasteriomay only have 600 career at-bats, but he may surprise some folks as a righty option on an otherwise lefty-heavy club, and he’s also defensively versatile. Romy Gonzalez and many before him started with the same level of uncertainty. I’m not going to say he’ll be a world-beater or even an every day starter, but he’ll have some moments.
— Dean Roussel
Masataka Yoshida. It’s going to be a tough fight for at-bats but Masa is finally healthy again. He’s adjusted to the American schedule of baseball. His winter was mostly defined as “release him as a sunk cost.” I don’t know exactly what pleasantly surprising for a veteran looks like. 18 home runs, 150 games, and a lot of perfect running form?
— Mike Carlucci
Connelly Early. I think he’s the real deal and knows exactly what he’s doing with all of his vast array of weapons on the mound. He’s constantly getting better, takes the coaching, shows up ready every time it’s his turn, and is probably extra motivated to stay in the rotation now that he’s been handed Sunday’s slot in Game 3 of the season. I would not be shocked if he’s the second most reliable starter behind Crochet by the end of the season.
— Matt Gross
Brayan Bello. Now that he’s the fourth (or fifth?) starter in the Red Sxo rotation, it feels like counting Bello out is the trendy thing to do. But Bello is still just 26-years-old and is signed through 2029, with a club option for 2030. His peripherals may not back it up, but the full-season picture on Bello a year ago was solid. He threw 166 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. In an 18-game stretch from May 23rd to August 27th, Bello was 8-5 with a 2.69 ERA, going 6+ innings in 13 of those starts! Move on from the shaky final month of the season; Bello has something to prove in ‘26.
— Bob Osgood
I’m going to say Caleb Durbin, even though it wouldn’t be a true surprise to have him do well. He’s a young and motivated head-down guy. His competency at third will be refreshing, and I think he’s going to truly lean into his speed and any possible tool he can wield in service of the team.
— Maura McGurk
Wilyer Abreu: If he steps up against lefties and stays healthy enough to show the power Boston knows he has, the national audience will have no choice but to bring Abreu’s name to the forefront.
— Tim Crowley
I’m optimistic that Ceddanne Rafaela can continue to make some improvements offensively while playing Platinum Glove-caliber defense in center. His xwOBA has climbed each of the last three seasons (2023 wasn’t a big sample size to be fair to him), and while I’m not even expecting him to be a bang average hotter compared to players league wide, it would be great if he could even be a perfectly cromulent back-of-the-order hitter.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
Does anyone even remember that Triston Casasis alive? We don’t know when he’ll be healthy, or whether he’ll have a position waiting for him when he is. But we do know this: There are only two players on the Red Sox capable of hitting over 30 homers and putting up an OBP around. 380. Casas is one of them.
— Dan Secatore
Who will have the most disappointing season?
I’m reluctantly going to say Trevor Story. He cut down on his strikeout rate considerably year over year, but also saw a huge jump in pitches over the heart of the plate. Very few hitters with his power saw as many pitches to hit. I’d expect pitchers to be more careful with him, and I don’t know if he has the discipline to take his walks.
— Jacob Roy
Color me the pessimist here, I don’t see Connor Wong bouncing back to anywhere near his earlier career form. I understand he was injured for a good deal of last season, but that doesn’t prevent me from thinking he’ll be a replacement level defensive-first, ok-framing, poor-hitting backup to Narváez. It’s my biggest question mark on the roster entering 2026.
— Jake Reiser
Regression is a pain. Sonny Gray has been dropping off since 2023,and I don’t see that changing as he transitions into his late-30s. The discrepancy between his FIP and ERA last year would suggest that perhaps he’s gotten a bit unlucky. And, he says in games long enough to allow him to be unlucky. But his hard hit percentage historically, along with the 6.84 ERA in his career at Fenway (albeit with a small sample size), worry me.
– Dean Roussel
I’m feeling the same as Jake but the other way: I think it’s Carlos Narváez. There was nothing expected of him last year. And teams last year seemed to be scouting him to trigger nonsense interference calls. Challenges will hopefully make “framing” less valuable. I honestly think he is still fine. They don’t need a new catcher. But against expectations Narváez might come up short.
— Mike Carlucci
I don’t think there’s any way Aroldis Chapman is as good as he was a year ago, when he was so automatic the game was pretty much over if the Sox took a lead into the ninth. In fact, he was so automatic that the bullpen isn’t really getting any discussion compared to the rest of the team this spring, and bullpens have a funny way of cracking when that happens. Chapman just turned 38 last month, and while he can still dial up the velocity, some regression seems guaranteed. The only question is how far is the fall off.
— Matt Gross
Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Is it a hot take to say that a backup/utility infielder will not take the world by storm this season? No. But if he’s signed for $6 million, putting the team over the second luxury tax threshold, and prevents them in any way from adding additional payroll for a true impact hitter? Yes, I plan to be disappointed. IKF had an OPS of .631 in 2025, with a career rate of .660, alongside an 82 career wRC+. His speed and defense are average at best, and he hit .227 against left-handers a year ago, an area that the team badly can use help in. Nate Eaton can do what Kiner-Falefa has been signed to do.
— Bob Osgood
I’m torn between Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Narváez, simply because I don’t think they can replicate the shockingly good years they had last year, and that will register as disappointment. Particularly in Chapman’s case, when the plan is to rely on him being lights-out again. I hate writing this because I don’t like to throw up any jinxes.
— Maura McGurk
Brayan Bello: Despite the weight of a top rotation starter off of him, Bello still struggles to attack with his arsenal and shows similar struggles to a tough 2025 finish.
—Tim Crowley
Going to, unfortunately, piggy back on what Mr. Roy said about Trevor Story. If anyone is going to disappoint, there’s a good chance it’s the guy with some iffy stuff under the hood who has injury question marks as well. Hope I’m wrong!
—Fitzy Mo Peña
It seems like a lot of Red Sox Nation is already sold on Caleb Durbin being a good to very good infield piece for the next ~5 years. And, sorry, but it’s hard for me to see a guy who hits baseballs with all the force of a rolled-up newspaper being a good big leaguer over the long-term.
—Dan Secatore
Amongst the newcomers, whose City Connect jersey will we see the most at Fenway come September?
The world could collapse into an apocalypse, and sports could be stopped entirely, but Payton Tolle would find a way to say something goofy into a camera. His happy-go-lucky personality, juxtaposed with his pure power on the mound, will make him a fan favorite.
— Jacob Roy
It’s Payton Tolle, full stop. He’s charismatic alongside pretty darn talented.
— Jake Reiser
Connelly Early. He’s young, his stuff is incredible, and he’s a homegrown talent. Plus, he’s a big lefty. Red Sox fans love that.
– Dean Roussel
Given that Fanatics/Nike basically ignore most players these days I think it has to be Sonny Gray who, as a veteran, will have jerseys made. Demand might be Early but good luck finding any number other than 34 in stock.
— Mike Carlucci
If Tolle manages to pop production wise, it’s going to be him with his combination of velocity and personality, but I’ll stick with my guy Connelly Early, who I’m more confident in being a solid rotation piece out of the gate this year, which fans should gravitate towards by midsummer.
— Matt Gross
It’s Payton Tolle. Anyone who has this much pride for the WBC sendoff needs to be a part of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America.
— Bob Osgood
Payton Tolle, no doubt.
— Maura McGurk
Tolle. The kid is charming, man.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
Tolle. Could he even be top-five in team jersey sales?
— Tim Crowley
So, um, what’s going to happen with Kristian Campbell this year?
He finally is given a true lane to run in but is stuck in the minors for most of the season…again. His mechanics are still one heck of a work in progress at the dish; it feels like he isn’t the first call-up at all from Worcester. Between Eaton, Hickey, Romero, Sogard, there’s more than enough spot guys that will be called to the big club before Campbell gets a shot.
— Jake Reiser
Some success at Triple A but remains completely blocked. Flipped at the deadline for a bullpen arm.
— Mike Carlucci
I’m not optimistic he gets out of Worcester this year. We’ve pretty much established that Campbell can’t play infield defense at the major league level, which means he’s now buried under the already overcrowded outfield/DH logjam the front office did little to alleviate this winter. This means Campbell really only has two paths to Boston this summer: One, he demolishes Triple-A pitching so much the Sox have to call him up and give him serious at-bats in favor of some combination of the Roman Anthony / Ceddanne Rafaela / Wilyer Abreu / Jarren Duran / Masataka Yoshida (and maybe even Triston Casas). Or two, a bunch of guys get injured and he’s the next best option. Unfortunately, that second scenario feels far more realistic as his quickest ticket back to the big leagues. To be fair though, the one thing he does have going in his favor is he’s right handed, which may lower the bar a little for him to get back to Boston’s unbalanced lineup.
— Matt Gross
He needs to dominate Triple-A LHP to earn the chance to platoon and fill in up in Boston. The roster construction as it stands in the infield makes it really hard for him to play his way back into a starting role.
—Tim Crowley
He works out the kinks in his rebuilt swing throughout the first half of the season and plays a role on the Red Sox in the second half. Injuries will happen with the big club, and the team has made far too big an investment in Campbell to allow a Blake Swihart situation to happen again.
— Bob Osgood
Speaking of jinxes! I would love to see him turn it around but where’s the evidence? His finding a home in the outfield is a mixed blessing; at least he can focus now, which presumably relieves some amount of pressure. But for godsakes this is the worst team to find yourself on in 2026 if you’re trying to make it to the big leagues as an outfielder. Campbell will be available for depth in the second part of the season (I guess) but I think it’s very possible he gets traded at the deadline—and that the fresh start might be good for him.
— Maura McGurk
It’s illegal for you to ask me that.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
In 10 years the 2026 Red Sox season will be remembered for…
The next steps forward. Remember, the name of the game here is CONSISTENCY in making and winning in the playoffs, not just one-and-done. This team is still very young, even with the additions of 3o-year-old Ranger Suárez and 36-year-old Sonny Gray. Roman Anthony is still 21. Marcelo Mayer is 23. Caleb Durbin is 26. Garrett Crochet is 26. Wilyer Abreu is 26. Jarren Duran is 29. The core of this team is well on the short side of 30. This team is still most likely a playoff team, but it’s about your stars of the future taking the next step to being great—and guys like Anthony, Abreu and Duran showcased that in the spring. Let’s see how it translates to 162 games in Boston.
— Jake Reiser
Establishing a floor. This team didn’t really shock anyone when they made a playoff run last year, but just how good how quickly Roman Anthony was surprised even the most optimistic of champions of the young outfielder. Same may be able to be said of Garrett Crochet, who is a bonafide Cy Young candidate…. hopefully perennially. Still, though, a lot of the new additions are guys who come with some volatility, although not as much as last season. Sonny Gray is getting older. Wilson Contreras is getting older. Caleb Durbin has a small sample size in his career. Johan Oviedo does too. If half of these lottery tickets don’t cash in, we’ll still get a playoff team, or one on the verge. Maybe we get a team that goes to Game 3 of the ALDS. Maybe we see a team popping champagne. We don’t know if either result is the lowest or highest result a team can expect, but this year will help establish a floor and give some clarity.
— Dean Roussel
It better be a deep postseason run. This team is as good as any of the other flawed contenders in the American League. With the Dodgers on the other side of the board, this Red Sox team should be right in the mix down to the very end, and this season should be remembered for whatever happens in very meaningful baseball games in the fall. Anything less is an underachievement.
— Matt Gross
A team that took a major step forward to shed the disappointment of the 2019-2025 era. This is a team that feels like it could make the ALCS on the back of its pitching rotation and bullpen, while being an impact hitter short. Hopefully I’ll feel differently after the trade deadline or if Tristan Casas can return and look like the player he was in 2023.
— Bob Osgood
Step two if things go ok. They hang in the division race a while but settle for a Wild Card. Maybe win that first round. We celebrate the progress made since 2022-2024. If Roman is a star, the lefties make gains against same-handed throwers, Early and maybe Tolle are breakouts, well, it’ll be remembered a while no matter how far they go into October as the real Red Sox rebirth.
— Mike Carlucci
For the drastic reduction in errors and once more plying the old-fashioned craft of good infield defense.
— Maura McGurk
Roman Anthony’s MVP campaign and a wild card series victory at Fenway Park.
— Tim Crowley
For being the Red Sox team that formally confirmed that we are back, baby. Even if we don’t end up on top by season’s end, 2026 is going to be the year that confirms it for folks who may not have been convinced after 2025: we’re in a new age, one that will be delicious (to quote a former Boston mayor) for Red Sox Nation.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
Winning the World Series, obviously. Because there’s no other reason why. The Red Sox are the balls!
I was born and raised in Manhattan, just a couple years before the New Jersey Nets leapt directly from the basement to consecutive NBA Finals appearances. I remember Mikki Moore as my power forward, not Kenyon Martin, and I never experienced or felt particularly connected to the Jersey Pride dripping off the best Nets teams of the early 2000s.
I understand now that was a perfect marriage between franchise and fanbase, if not economically, then spiritually. The nation’s most insecure state embraced a small-market team that always beat the Knicks and Celtics, whose success was repeatedly name-checked in The Sopranos, but remained firmly the underdog. The team started winning after they traded the “selfish,” NYC-born Stephon Marbury for Jason Kidd, who ran — what else? — the Princeton offense dutifully. And thanks to the league’s best defense, Kidd got to throw plenty of dazzling, no-look passes in transition.
The Nets were was tough, fundamentally sound, and flashy, in that order. New Jersey’s self-conscious pride swelled, and showsyouhow weak the Eastern Conference is became the NBA equivalent of it’s just a highway surrounded by factories.
You likely know the rest of the story, but if not, Secret Base has a refresher on the rest of the Jersey years…
Now they are the Brooklyn Nets, playing their home games at Barclays Center, which sits on the edge of Prospect Heights. Bruce Ratner’s vision, in part, came true. Today, Barclays Center — unlike the Nets’ previous homes — is reliably full even when the team isn’t good, this year reporting an average attendance of 17,404 per game, or 99.18% of its listed capacity.
Most of those 17,404 are not Nets fans. If a star player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the visiting team — not to mention the LeBron James/Steph Curry class — the building bursts with their jerseys. This is also true for regional opponents like the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks, boasting huge fanbases that always travel well. Earlier this season, Jaylen Brown got “M-V-P” chants at the ’Clays.
Obviously, the Nets have been very bad over the last three seasons. They no longer have star-power on the roster. It’s no secret that the franchise’s move to Brooklyn only brought them deeper into Knicks-occupied territory, but the current state of the team plays a role here too.
Former Nets Bruce Brown and Theo Pinson described the crowd dynamic very well on the latter’s podcast a couple years ago…
Speaking about the 2021 playoff environment: “Their fans just love basketball. They’re there for the game. Like sometimes, it’s not for just Brooklyn, they’re just there for the game … They want to see a good basketball game. They want to see dunks, they’ll cheer for anybody, they don’t care who team you on.”
D’Angelo Russell echoed the sentiment last season: “They’re ready to just blow the roof off this place if you give them a reason. That may be for the opposing team, they may give them that reason a lot of the time. Or we can.”
When the Nets were briefly a winning team led by recognizable superstars, the crowd was behind them. They also attracted more young fans in the Clean Sweep years, namely their most impressionable targets: the children of millennial transplants.
But whether the Brooklyn Nets are good at bad at any given moment hardly affects the wider conversation about their fanbase…
Bill Simmons “What's Knicks-Nets ratio in New York?
Zach Lowe “Meeting a Nets fan in NY only slightly more common than a Magic fan…
"Nets fans hate when you say how dead Barclays is
BS “Not for Liberty…It's Nets…thinking they could come in NY…
(Notice that this clip from The Zach Lowe Show comes via a New York Knicks fan account, reveling in the cheapest way to unite their followers while extracting argumentative replies.)
So much handwringing over the Nets’ fanbase, but so little about what it means to actually be a Nets fan, two decades removed the peak of the fandom’s local pride. Blogger extraordinaire Ock Sportello is the leader of the genre — this post titled Who Are Nets Fans? in particular is a classic, explaining the “gentrifier’s anxiety” that now unites both team and fanbase.
These are the pathologies that condition Nets fandom. We are fans of the team who blacked out the stands upon moving, a move that not incidentally obscured how few people attended games. We are fans who ask, with bated breath, how the crowd looked or sounded on any given night.
About a month ago, I was on CT Rail, watching a nationally televised Cavs-Knicks game on my laptop. An exuberant ticket-checker noticed, asking me what the score was. I replied and mentioned that Jalen Brunson had just made three shots in a row. I noticed the Knicks pin affixed to her shirt as she complained about Karl-Anthony Towns and having to move from the city to Connecticut. I told her I didn’t envy her. She chuckled and said “at least Brunson’s got us this year,” at which point I told her I couldn’t wait for the playoffs, which hey, that’s the truth.
The ticket-checker strolled away. My girlfriend, sitting in the window seat, called me a name I’m not going to repeat here.
Can Nets fans be proud? Does that pride have to come from rooting for a team that plays in the same borough where Jean-Michel Basquiat and Christopher Wallace were born over a half-century ago, as the organization so often reminds us?
Perhaps that pride can sound like Josh Minott did after the Nets lost to the Knicks last Thursday. Visibly distraught, he sat at the podium and gave the most well-received postgame presser a Net has had in years.
“I wanted that s*** so f****** bad,” he began.
“Ever since we’ve been here, it’s like every game is an away game, you know? Tonight was just the night to really just stick it to everybody, man. As an organization, as a team, to show people that we got s**** here, yo. Man, just a sea of blue, a sea of orange. Every game we play, it’s a sea of the other team, and I saw it here when I was on the Celtics. But being here, it’s like, I got nothing but respect for the real fans, like, the real Brooklyn fans. Shout out to them, you know, because I know it’s tough being outnumbered every single game. But I really feel like what we have here isn’t b***s***. Like, we have pieces here. I’ve seen it. That’s what this ‘rivalry’ meant to me.”
Yes, Minott put the word “rivalry” in air quotes. After posting the answer on social media, I got dozens of messages and replies just like this, with many fans half-jokingly calling Minott their new favorite player…
Minott did not deny the reality of playing home games at Barclays, particularly for a bad team. He did not try to talk up a rivalry with the team whose fans just infiltrated the building, instead admitting that it stinks. That’s much more palatable than the meek “it is what it is,” type of platitude Mikal Bridges went with when he was still in Brooklyn, and it’s much more respectable than trying to well actually Knicks fans on the Internet.
Minott was brutally honest and defiantly proud to be a Net. That’s an ultra-rare combination, and he pulled it off during a season that might end with 17 wins. In Who Are Nets Fans?, Ock Sportello observed that, “We know that we are alone, then, but only we can say it.”
Well … what if Nets fans didn’t care who said it. One of their own players just did, and it was the most popular quote of the season. The Nets will not tank forever. At some point, they will, in Minott’s words, get a chance to stick it to everybody.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MARCH 25: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics reacts to a foul called against him during the second half of the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at TD Garden on March 25, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the Thunder 119-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images
#1 – Jaylen at the wheel
When you are on the road and the Thunder strikes, you need your driver at the wheel to get you through the storm. For the Boston Celtics, the man at the wheel has a name: Jaylen Brown. Despite the physical defense from the OKC Thunder, the 2024 Finals MVP was able to get to the rim repeatedly.
Lu Dort did his best to stay attached but, in the second half, Brown was really smart about the way he moved with and without the ball. On this baseline out-of-bounds play, he uses Neemias Queta’s screen to be a step ahead when he catches the ball and drives straight away while Dort is losing his balance.
And then, the exclamation point. He catches the ball at the key, back to the rim. He feels Alex Caruso is a little too much on his left. So he spins, drives, and explodes at the rim to deliver a new poster for Jaylin Williams’ bedroom.
As the Celtics saw how effective Jaylen was at getting to the rim last night, they kept calling plays for him to give him space. On this ball-screen, the OKC Thunder doesn’t want to switch and that creates a small gap. That slight difference allows JB to get going and here he is, at the rim again.
Yet, one of the hidden reasons the rim was so accessible last night might be related to the recent return of… Jayson Tatum.
#2 – Jayson Tatum’s gravity
Since coming back, the Celtics’ offense breathes a lot better. More space to execute because the defense can’t ignore him off the ball, leading to better driving lanes for Jaylen—but not only. When he is involved in an action, the defense often overreacts once he has the ball and that creates collapses. On this play (that led to yet another poster dunk), look how the defensive shell cracks as soon as he touches the ball.
There were other plays that stood out in this game and highlighted JT’s gravity, like here in the first half. Jayson Tatum has the ball on the wing, which draws a lot of attention. And do you know who is on the other wing? Another All-Star who is going to take advantage of that gravity.
Like Nik tweeted last night, questioning the power of attraction that Jayson Tatum has on a defense—and therefore his impact on the Celtics’ offense—doesn’t make any sense.
Don’t ever want to see anyone question Tatum’s gravity again
OKC literally coming all the way off of White and Chet getting ready to help on the other side pic.twitter.com/jpXfgBmp8b
Yes, he is not as explosive as last season. Yes, the finishing at the rim is still a bit weak and the pull-up threes are sometimes a bit too much. Nevertheless, the Celtics are better with Jayson Tatum on the court as a spacer, but also as a creator. Especially when they go to a certain play-call: the Spain pick-and-roll.
#3 – Spain all over the place
Throughout the season, I have written about this play after many games, but last night was different. First, because it was against the best defense in the league, so it was a great opportunity to test it. Second, because for once I was lucky enough to ask Joe Mazzulla about it.
For @celticsblog I asked Joe Mazzulla "why this action (Spain PnR) is so hard to defend?"
His answers "There is time it is easy to defend, it depends on how well you execute […] It's a stabilizing play for us, we got to continue to work on it against the different coverages" https://t.co/sp15tfJPBapic.twitter.com/ppYoCTjcGX
As often, Joe Mazzulla didn’t go into the details of why the action is so important. But he called it “stabilizing,” confirming the trend that it felt like they were going to that play a lot. Usually, the play works really well against drop coverage because it blocks the center from stepping back to protect the rim. Against the OKC Thunder, the Celtics had to deal with more hedge coverage, putting a lot of pressure on the ball.
But Jayson Tatum doesn’t care. Look at the speed and accuracy of the pass to Luka Garza, who rolls to the rim.
Repetition of a play that can beat different coverages is great for the Boston Celtics and also for Jayson Tatum. The beauty of that play is that different players can fill different roles. JB and JT can both be screeners or ball-handlers, and the same goes for Payton Pritchard and Derrick White. A deep team.
#4 – Protect the paint at all cost
Pretty quickly in the game, you could understand that the Celtics would live with shooting variance as long as the ball didn’t get into the paint. And looking at the stats, it made a lot of sense. The Thunder made 100% of their shots at the rim, but they generated only 11 of them.
In the meantime, the Celtics allowed the Thunder to take 40% of their shots from beyond the arc, but they made only 12 out of 37 attempts. The first three came early in the game, and you could have wondered if the Celtics would stick to that approach.
But they didn’t panic. They weathered the storm in the first half, slowly getting back into the game because the defense did a great job of limiting rim attempts in half-court situations. Bodies were all around SGA when he drove, because the Celtics know it takes more than one to stop an MVP.
The Celtics remained stubborn in their approach and it paid off in the long run. The second great thing they did defensively was turning misses into stops.
#5 – The rebounding dilemma
Going into the game, both Joe Mazzulla and Mark Daigneault knew their teams’ strengths and weaknesses. In the press conference, the OKC Thunder coach was transparent and called rebounding his team’s biggest weakness.
Mark Daigneault called the rebounding a “major weakness” for the Thunder.
He also said that, depending the lineups, they have moments where they are less threatened on than end.
This will be an interesting possession battle tonight in Boston against Celtics.
And the Celtics built their strategy on that. First of all, on defense, they knew there wouldn’t be many crashes on the glass, but they needed to make sure that hustlers like Caruso or Dort wouldn’t generate too many second chances. Overall, they limited the Thunder to four offensive rebounds, which is one of the best defensive rebounding nights for the Celtics.
But then, what do you do on offense? The Thunder is a fierce transition team, but at the same time they have that obvious rebounding weakness. To keep applying pressure, the Celtics did crash the glass—but less with Garza and Queta than usual, and more with the wings.
This was a smart approach to be aggressive without giving up too much on the glass and getting exposed in transition.
#6 – Mismatch hunting
This game felt like a good old Celtics game for that reason too. It has been a while since we have seen both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown hunt mismatches like they did yesterday with Ajay Mitchell.
They did their best to force the Belgian into switches so they could attack that mismatch and eat that waffle. Look how strong Tatum’s screen is here—there are no other options.
This other play is an even stronger example. They know Mitchell will switch unless it’s onto Brown. But the Celtics really want that matchup. On the first screen, Mitchell doesn’t switch, but he switches on the second (from Pritchard to White), then a third screen comes—and that’s Brown again. This time, he can’t escape.
Both Jays showed patience and great determination in getting these switches and making the Thunder pay for having a great offensive threat with defensive limitations.
#7 – No center, no problem
The Celtics also went back to that small-ball lineup we saw earlier, with Jayson Tatum as the tallest man on the court. This time, the defense was much more solid. They understood that for this approach to work, they had to be extremely aggressive and stay connected in their rotations.
This defensive play is a great example of how committed they were, and we saw our first block of the season from Jayson on that help at the rim.
And if the defense holds well enough with that small-ball lineup, then it becomes a great opportunity to get the offense going. With only shooters and drivers on the court, it is tough for the defense to keep up because they cannot double, but one-on-one defense becomes a trap against such elite isolation players. On top of that, look at that spacing.
This approach forced the Thunder to match it, showing that the Celtics were the ones dictating the rules last night.
#8 – Pritchard making a difference
Of course, Pritchard was attacked whenever he was on the court and sometimes weakened the defensive structure. However, the spacing he brings is so valuable against a team that is willing to stunt hard but can also recover quickly. That’s why his ability to shoot from so deep, again and again, is huge for the Celtics in these matchups.
The big bonus of his profile is his drive. If the closeout is too aggressive, he has the ability to get into the paint—and he has his spots there too. Here, against Chet Holmgren in the paint, he doesn’t panic, uses his footwork and soft touch to shoot over the seven-footer.
The positioning on offense is perfect. He does a great job of taking his time to get the best shot possible after Jaylen Brown’s smart pass to the corner. Then, back on defense against the MVP, he doesn’t panic.
He stays connected, denies him, and forces the offense to play at a slower tempo than expected. Once SGA has the ball, he does a great job of using his hands without fouling until they force a turnover from the MVP. Great work.
As usual, he crashed the boards, scored a putback, and kept providing playmaking on both ends of the floor. Impressive shooting night too, as he provided much-needed spacing. Funny enough, he beat SGA twice with the same move from the corner.
The previous matchups over the last two years have been such great games that we deserve seven of these in June. As SGA said, there is a playoff feel in these games. Now let’s make it an NBA Finals feel.
“Every time you play a Boston Celtics, you get a playoff feel. No matter what day it is. No matter who’s out there. They’re super well-coached. They have really good players… It’s a game that you see where you really are and they test you. We got a test tonight; we didn’t pass… pic.twitter.com/23yN0chlHx
Mar 25, 2026; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Devin Vassell (24) shoots as Memphis Grizzlies forward Taylor Hendricks (22) defends during the second quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Now that I’m writing these recap articles, blowouts like this can be a little frustrating. The reason is that I find myself looking at the box score as the second half progresses and thinking things like, “Wow, the Spurs could hold Memphis to 70 points on 20 field goals if they really wanted to, but — because they’re up by almost 40 — the last 15 minutes will only be ‘played’ in the most literal sense of the word.” In other words, I see the possibility of a glorious box score littered with statistical combinations that haven’t occurred in recent history, but know deep down that those gems will turn to dust as the fourth quarter unwinds.
Fortunately, these selfish moments quickly give way to the realization that the Spurs won easily, and that Memphis wanted them to, so this whole event was one big victory for all parties involved. What’s more, last night’s game did manage to produce some stunning statistical highlights, as I will outline below:
San Antonio put together another exceptional rebounding performance, logging TRB and ORB differentials of +26 and +10, respectively. In the 16,759 regular season contests played since the start of 2012-2013, this is just the 50th occasion that a winning team has put together TRB and ORB margins as good or better.
In their last three games, the Spurs have outrebounded their opponents by a total of +73, which is the second highest three-game differential achieved in the regular season since 2012-2013. First place is +74, recorded by Houston in 2025 between March 14th and March 17th, with successive TRB differentials of +33, +18, and +23.
Another interesting thing about this game is how balanced the offensive opportunities were across the two teams. For example, the Spurs held minor edges in FGA and FTA (+3 and +2, respectively), but faced a minor disadvantage in 3PA (-4).
Because offensive opportunity was roughly balanced, this game was ultimately decided by efficiency, and San Antonio had most of the critical advantages. In particular, the Spurs achieved a 12.15 percentage-point advantage in FG%, resulting in a +12 FGM margin. Because San Antonio and Memphis both made 16 threes, this means that the Spurs outscored the Grizzlies by 24 from the field.
In contrast to some recent games, the Spurs were not able to extend their lead meaningfully at the free throw line. Despite the fact that Memphis has two fewer attempts and shot just 70% from the charity stripe (14-of-20), the Spurs’ 68.18% FT% was even worse, so they only managed to outscore the Grizzlies by one at the line. Since the start of 2012-2013, only 92 other regular season winners have managed to outscore an opponent by 25+ points while shooting no better that 68.18% from the line on 22+ attempts.
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
Data Source: The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected from Basketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
COVERS INTEL: Misiorowski struck out a lot more hitters in Milwaukee last year, racking up 53 Ks in 36 2/3 innings of work compared to just 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 frames on the road.
Matthew Pouliot
