Earlier this offseason, we were all a little surprised to hear that the Red Sox were rumored to be interested in catcher J.T. Realmuto. He’s since resigned with the Phillies, but the Sox are reportedly still interested in upgrading at catcher. While the catching position doesn’t feel like a priority given Carlos Narvaez’s successful rookie campaign, the team may simply see upgrading from Connor Wong as low-hanging fruit. Admittedly, though, there isn’t much catching talent out there right now. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)
But the catching spot should take a backseat to upgrading the infield. As of today, it looks like Marcelo Mayer is being penciled in at third. After yet another season-ending injury, Mayer recently provided an injury update: “I feel good. I’m pretty much doing full baseball activities like a normal ramp-up. I feel like I’m in a good spot.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
And don’t forget: while nothing seems imminent, things can come together quickly. For example, the Ranger Suárez deal was apparently negotiated over the length of a single afternoon. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)
Suárez is one of three big acquisitions the Sox have made so far. As for on of the others, Willson Contreras, get ready to enjoy a fiery ballplayer: “I play to win. I don’t play to mess around. I don’t play to make friends on other teams. That’s the way I play, and I’m going to keep showing my emotions.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)
While it’s going to be hard to find a decent catcher or upgrade the infield, it’s not hard to sign international free agents. The international amateur signing period opened last week and the Sox have already signed 17 players, all of whom are expected to head to the player development academy in the Dominican Republic. It’s quite possible, if not probable, that none of these players will ever make it to the big leagues, but here’s a rundown of some of the top names, including two players who were ranked in the top-50 of international amateurs and one player out of Brazil, which is still emerging as a baseball hotbed, powered by Japanese immigration. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)
And look: we’ve got new minor league coaches! Not the most exciting news in the world, but we just don’t have a lot going on right now, folks. Interestingly, several of them have a history with Driveline. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)
Gavin Sheets was given the opportunity to make the San Diego Padres roster in Spring Training last season, and he took full advantage of it. He quickly become a fan favorite and chants of “Holy Sheets!” could be heard throughout Petco Park during his at-bats. Sheets even earned himself the nickname “Dairy Bonds” thanks some timely and powerful homeruns. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at what Sheets has done since becoming a member of the Padres and what he can do during the 2026 season to build on the success of last season.
Padres News:
Centerfielder Jackson Merrill signed a nine-year extension with the Padres early in the 2025 season. Some baseball pundits thought he sold himself short by excepting what was by all accounts a team-friendly contract, but Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball talks about how Merrill wants to be in San Diego, much like Mr. Padre.
Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball covers detail about the oblique injury suffered by Sung-Mun Song and provides readers with an idea of what to expect regarding the recovery timeline, rehab process and possible setbacks.
AJ Cassavell of Padres.com provides his list of the best Padres players by number, which includes former Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy with No. 44. Joe Musgrove still has time to change that, but since he wears 44 because of Peavy it may not happen.
According to reports, the Padres are one of many teams interested in adding free agent infielder Miguel Andujar to their roster.
The first half of the 2025-26 season is history, and the Wizards season has at times inspired hope, frustration, and laughter. There have been puzzling moments (like Kyshawn George trying to force James Harden to go left — TWICE in the final minutes of a close game) and some exciting ones as well (like Alex Sarr emerging as one of the game’s better rim protectors).
At 10-32, the Wizards have the NBA’s third worst winning percentage (the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers are percentage points ahead behind). They‘re 14th in the East, 8.5 games out of the play-in, and they have the league’s worst scoring differential adjusted for strength of schedule or not.
Washington big man Alex Sarr is having a breakout season for the Wizards.
As I’ve written previously, scoring margin is the best measure of relative team strength. Adjusted for opponent quality, the Wizards are -10.8 per game this season. That’s a whopping 2.6 points per game worse than the 29th ranked Sacramento Kings.
Barring a complete second half meltdown, the Wizards are out of “worst ever” historical status. Their adjusted scoring margin is 11th worst all-time, which is an improvement from last season when they were third worst. Ever. They remain on course for the worst two-year run — at least in terms of scoring margin — in NBA history.
The Measuring Stick
Here’s where the Wizards currently rank in the various key stats of team strength (where they ranked at the last update, which was Jan. 13, is in parentheses):
Offensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 28 (27)
Defensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29 (29)
The departures of CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have — at least temporarily — reduced Washington’s offensive efficiency. Kispert’s impact is less because he missed much of the season with injuries. Trading McCollum is more consequential because of his ability to create good shots and to make tough ones. Plus, his experience helped the team stay somewhat organized.
With McCollum gone, the young guys have to figure things out on their own, which at this point is probably a good thing for their long-term development. Call it a short-term quarter step back in hopes of taking a couple giant steps forward.
Offensive Four Factors
eFG%: 23 (21)
Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 19 (20)
Turnover Rate: 26 (26)
Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 27 (26)
Since the McCollum trade, the Wizards have shot worse and committed more turnovers. They’re also getting to the free throw line a bit less.
Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: 22 (23)
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 30 (30)
Turnover Rate: 28 (28)
Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 21 (15)
They’re still last in defensive rebounding, but the actual percentage has gone up to 71.0% — it was 70.0% just a few games ago. They’re still almost two percentage points from 29th. As I wrote after a recent game, the defensive results aren’t good, but the coaching staff is implementing a good defensive scheme, and we’re seeing the predictable growing pains.
Player Production Average
Below is a table with updated results from the Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.
PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.
Inputs include:
on-court team defensive rating
points
rebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)
assists
steals
blocks
shot attempts
turnovers
personal fouls
starts
minutes
In the table below, I’ve included each player’s PPA last time, currently (through games played Jan. 19 — game 42), as well as games played and minutes per game. The Garbage Time Brigade has their own section.
In the table below, LAST = the player’s PPA when I last ran an update, which was through games played Jan. 7, 2026.
PLAYER
GAMES
MPG
LAST
PPA
Alex Sarr
33
27.8
157
145
Marvin Bagley III
36
19.3
108
104
Justin Champagnie
40
18.5
99
96
Kyshawn George
33
31.2
89
94
Bilal Coulibaly
25
26.6
83
81
Tre Johnson
35
24.7
79
80
Khris Middleton
29
24.3
83
78
Malaki Branham
24
9.6
42
56
Bub Carrington
42
28.3
47
51
Cam Whitmore
21
16.9
49
49
Tristan Vukcevic
30
11.4
43
46
Will Riley
34
13.8
43
34
AJ Johnson
23
7.1
-7
-13
DEPARTED
GAMES
MPG
PPA
PPA
CJ McCollum
35
30.9
121
121
Corey Kispert
19
19.5
78
78
GTB
GAMES
MPG
PPA
PPA
Anthony Gill
19
3.8
56
48
Jamir Watkins
17
13.4
37
29
Sharife Cooper
4
2.5
-66
-66
2026 All-Star Ballot
Below is a table showing my picks right now for this year’s All-Star game based on a mix of stats and watching too many games.
EAST
WEST
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Donovan Mitchell
Nikola Jokic
Tyrese Maxey
Kawhi Leonard
Jalen Duren
Stephen Curry
Jalen Johnson
Luka Doncic
Michael Porter Jr.
Jamal Murray
Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Jalen Brunson
Victor Wembanyama
Jaylen Brown
Chet Holmgren
Josh Giddey
LeBron James
Norman Powell
Kevin Durant
Scottie Barnes
Deni Avdija
I paid no attention to position because apparently All-Star has now joined All-NBA as positionless.
I also paid no attention to the U.S. vs. International aspect of this year’s festivities. On a quick eyeballing of the lists, I see at least eight international players, which is the minimum required.
I’m not sure if Deni Avdija will actually make the team. He’s playing really well, and there are a lot of good vibes out there about him. In my view, he’s in an arguable group with maybe 6-10 other guys.
MVP is a two-man race, assuming Jokic can get to the stupid 65-game requirement. SGA’s PPA is 299 (the only player to crack 300 was Stephen Curry, who did it once). Jokic is at 288. Giannis is third at 257.
LeBron James isn’t on my list because of his status as the game’s elder statesman. His PPA is 182 this season, which is excellent. If I was to drop an old guy for someone playing a little better, it would be Kevin Durant.
I wanted very much to find a spot for Jimmy Butler, who’s having an excellent season, but I couldn’t see giving two spots to the Golden State Warriors.
The gravitational pull of the NBA’s play-in tournament is calling out to the Toronto Raptors. And it may be too late to escape its reach if the Raptors can’t salvage the four games that remain in their west coast road trip.
The Raptors (25-19) are currently one game ahead of the seventh-seeded Orlando Magic and only hold a four-game advantage over the 11th-place Chicago Bulls. Toronto doesn’t have a great history of coming back from its trip out west with a winning record. It’s realistic for this team, especially as they continue to navigate through their injuries, to experience a downward spiral in the Eastern Conference by the end of their business trip.
The challenges remain relentless, with the next hurdle in the gauntlet being the Golden State Warriors.
Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. EST on Sportsnet for Canadian viewers.
Here are three storylines to consider ahead of the contest.
Three-point woes
The Raptors’ inability to knock down shots from beyond-the-arc is hurting them. While it’s always been a concern when trying to construct a roster around Scottie Barnes, the need for shooters has become especially important since the acquisition of Brandon Ingram.
Golden State is averaging 16.2 three-pointers (1st) on 36.5 per cent efficiency (10th) this season. It’s important that Toronto breaks out of its shooting slump to help neutralize the home-run ball.
Teams have traditionally gone to zone against the Raptors over the last few years. But it’s shockingly embarrassing how often soft coverages have been deployed in the last month. Opponents don’t respect Toronto’s perimeter shooting and the stats support their reasoning.
The Raptors rank last in the league in three-point efficiency at 33.6 per cent. Since Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic replaced Nick Nurse, the team has finished in the bottom percentile from the perimeter. They shot 34.8 per cent last season (23rd) and 34.7 per cent in 2023-24 (27th).
After going 6-for-37 (16 per cent) against the Philadelphia 76ers on Jan. 12, the Raptors are 28-for-93 (30.1 per cent) over the last three games.
Expect the Warriors to go into zone anytime the Raptors’ offence looks like it’s gaining confidence.
Warriors eager to come out and play
Since their dramatic 141-127 overtime loss to the Raptors on Dec. 28, the Warriors are 9-3. They have also won their last four games by an average of 19.5 points.
Jimmy Butler’s season ended when he tore his ACL against the Miami Heat on Jan. 20. Stephen Curry continues to serve as the game-breaking engine of the Warriors’ offence, but Butler (alongside Draymond Green) has alternated with contributing memorable performances. In Butler’s absence, the team’s auxiliary pieces need to step up. Fortunately for Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, they’ve been an integral reason for their recent good fortunes.
Brandin Podziemski is averaging 16.6 points on a blistering 67.8 per cent shooting during the Golden State’s three-game win streak. He’s also contributing 5.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 steals in this stretch. Podziemski hasn’t scorched the net like this since mid-December, when he finished six straight contests with double-digit scoring.
Moses Moody is also finally realizing the potential the Warriors saw when the organization drafted him with the 14th overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft. Moody is averaging 15.6 points per game over the last three contests. He’s having a career-season in points (10.6), three-point percentage (39.2 per cent), steals (0.9) and blocks (0.6). Moody’s production as a three-and-d type of wing has helped offset Buddy Hield’s inconsistency and the drama of Jonathan Kuminga.
CMB down
While Jakob Poeltl (back) and RJ Barrett (ankle) are expected to miss the game, it’s Collin Murray-Boyles’ inclusion on the injury report that might be the most significant narrative thread.
Murray-Boyles’ defensive prowess for a rookie is abnormal. On the surface, his six-foot-seven frame and non-elite athleticism don’t look threatening for someone moonlighting as a centre. But for a team without a true big man in its lineup, his intimidating presence and defensive genius are what have held this team together, particularly during the offence’s cold stretches.
The vibes are high for the Detroit Red Wings these days, as they're in as advantageous a position through the first 50 games of a season as they've been in nearly 15 years.
For the first time since the 2011-12 campaign, the Red Wings have won 30 of their first 50 games and are currently in a first-place tie with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the top seed in the Atlantic Division.
It also won’t be long before the NHL Trade Deadline (March 6) arrives, and if the Red Wings continue on their current trajectory, there’s a strong possibility they could be buyers.
While rumors have linked the Red Wings to Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson, a pair of NHL Insiders have instead speculated about a different player who could land in Detroit, one with a well-known prior connection to forward Patrick Kane.
Insiders Jeff Marek and Pierre McGuire discussed potential landing spots for New York Rangers forward Artemi Panarin, who was informed last week by general manager Chris Drury that he will not be offered a new contract by the club.
"When you look at the landscape for Artemi Panarin, what teams jump to mind for you, Pierre?" Marek asked.
"I'm going to throw one at you - the Detroit Red Wings," McGuire said. "I think what they've done so far with this team and Todd McLellan there, I think they've amped it up. I look at that Moritz Seider/Simon Edvinsson tandem, that's a read-built defensive tandem for playoff hockey."
"You look at the quick strike capability of a guy like Lucas Raymond, you look at Alex DeBrincat's goal against Ottawa in overtime, the way he shot the puck; you look at the speed and creativity of Larkin," he continued. "Patrick Kane seems like he's having fun again."
McGuire then praised what he described as a plethora of talented young players in the Detroit system and suggested packaging some of them in a deal with the Rangers to acquire Panarin, whom he called a “perfect fit” for Detroit.
"Turn some of those young players into a guy like Panarin, I think that's the perfect fit," McGuire said.
Could Artemi Panarin be the piece the Detroit Red Wings need?@JeffMarek and Pierre McGuire discuss potential landing spots for the Rangers' pending UFA
One of the most talented players in the NHL, Panarin already has a prior connection with Kane, having played alongside him with the Chicago Blackhawks and later briefly with the Rangers in 2023.
Much like Kane’s connection with Alex DeBrincat, he developed instant chemistry with Panarin upon the latter’s arrival in the NHL in 2015. The duo routinely wowed fans in Chicago, becoming one of the league’s most dangerous offensive pairings and frequently combining for highlight-reel plays that resulted in goals.
The Red Wings currently have just over $13 million in available salary cap space, which would be more than enough to absorb Panarin's cap hit (a portion of which would likely be retained by the Rangers).
However, a potential holdup in any pursuit of Panarin, who is a pending unrestricted free agent, is whether he would be willing to agree to a contract extension.
While Detroit previously showed interest in acquiring now–former Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman recently stated that the absence of an extension was the reason no deal ultimately materialized.
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Good morning! Boston saw its first significant snow storm of 2026 yesterday, and it’s well below freezing today. In other words, it very much does not feel like baseball season here. But baseball is being played all around the world, including in the Dominican, where a spot in the LIDOM championship series was decided by a walkoff walk:
Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
UPDATE 1:15 p.m. ET: Injury reports are available!
For the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been ruled out for Monday hosting the Suns for right ankle injury management. As mentioned in the original post below, Embiid has not played a single game on zero days rest so far this season, so him missing tonight (after playing 33 minutes last night) isn’t a huge surprise. Paul George, who did not play last night, is listed as questionable for left knee injury management.
Seven-foot-one center Mark Williams is questionable for Phoenix due to right knee injury management. Williams has only played in two of a possible six zero-rest games for the Suns so far this season.
The big update from the Suns camp, however, is that it looks like Jalen Green will in fact make his return from injury for Phoenix against the Sixers. Green, a career 20-point scorer in four seasons with the Rockets, has been out since early November with a hamstring injury and has played only two games this season.
Another day, another Philadelphia 76ers game.
The Sixers are back in action on Tuesday evening to host the Phoenix Suns less than 24 hours after defeating the Indiana Pacers. This is the eighth of an NBA-high (tied with four other teams) 16 back-to-backs this season for the Sixers. So far this campaign, they are 5-2 in games on zero days rest. The Suns are also coming into Philly on the second leg of a back-to-back, having defeated the Brooklyn Nets in New York City last night.
You know what back-to-backs mean by now! No official injury reports until this afternoon.
Joel Embiid, after being listed as questionable throughout the day for left knee injury management and illness, ended up playing against the Pacers, putting up 30 points on 10-for-17 field goal shooting with nine rebounds in 33:18. Neither he nor Paul George have played a game on zero days rest so far this season, so one could guess that Embiid may not be available for Tuesday. PG, however, did not play on Monday night after being ruled out for left knee injury management. That leaves the door more open for him to be possibly available to take on the Suns.
For Phoenix, their only absence for their Monday contest was Jalen Green, out with a hamstring strain. Green was listed as questionable before that contest, however, which is notable as Green has been sidelined since early Nov. 2025 with a hamstring issue. He has played just two games this season for the Suns after being moved to Phoenix as part of the Kevin Durant trade, but is a career 20-point per game scorer in his previous four NBA seasons with the Houston Rockets. A return from Green could mean a big boost for the Suns’ offense. Phoenix coach Jordan Ott told reporters on Monday that Green being ruled out against the Nets was “just giving him the extra day” and that Green would make his return against the Sixers on Tuesday “if everything checks out.”
We will keep you posted on official availabilities when the teams’ injury reports are posted.
This is the Sixers’ first of two meetings with the Suns this season. Phoenix are led by franchise veteran Devin Booker, who is averaging 25.3 points, 6.4 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game in this his 11th NBA season. Dillon Brooks is right alongside Booker this year, averaging 20.9 points per contest and shooting 35.1 percent from three-point range on a 7.2 attempts per game clip. The Suns also have a decent supporting cast down the roster of players contributing well this season, including Grayson Allen, Collin Gillespie and 7-foot-1 Mark Williams. This squad, especially with the prospective addition of Green back in the mix, will be a formidable opponent for the Sixers.
The Suns come into Tuesday’s contest at 26-17, currently sitting in seventh in the Western Conference. They’ve won seven of their last ten games as they continue to battle for every inch of leverage in the conference, with just a game or less separating them from the three squads ahead of them, as of Tuesday morning.
This is game five of a six-game roadie for the Suns, and they’ll have some tired legs on top of that. The struggling Nets were able to keep things relatively close on Monday night against the Suns, so most of the Phoenix starters played a normal amount of minutes last night, ranging from 28 to 34.
The Sixers were in a similar boat against the Pacers in not pulling away until towards the very end of the contest, with the Philly starters logging anywhere from 24 minutes to 40 (Tyrese Maxey) on Monday. So, there may be some weariness on both sides tonight.
Maxey, by the way, had a stellar game last night to celebrate his first All-Star starter nod. He put up 29 points (14 in the fourth period to secure the win) on 12-for-24 field goal shooting with eight assists and a career-high eight steals. It was the perfect display of the guard not only continuing to develop offensively but also the massive leap his defense has taken this season.
The Sixers and Suns will tip off in South Philadelphia at 7 p.m. ET.
Game Details
When: Tuesday, January 20, 7:00 p.m. ET Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic Follow:@LibertyBallers
There are big expectations for Baltimore backstop Samuel Basallo as he heads into his official rookie season. The 21-year-old out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, doesn’t just represent the leader of a new wave of talent graduating from the Orioles’ farm system. Basallo represents the first real fruits of an increased emphasis on developing talent through the international free agent market.
Basallo signed with the Orioles in 2021 for a then-club record $1.3M signing bonus. After a relative sprint through the minors that saw him make his big league debut at 20, the now-No. 1 catching prospect in baseball showed flashes of his immense potential in 31 games last season. Highlights included a walk-off homer against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers, another walk-off winner four days later against the Pirates and a moonshot against the Yankees for his final long ball of the year.
That’s not to say that the rookie didn’t have his struggles. In the first 109 ABs of his career, Basallo posted a .165 average and .559 OPS and struggled with strikeouts. The 6’4” catcher certainly faded down the stretch of his first major league cameo. Over his first 15 games, he posted a modest .204 average with a .660 OPS and 24% strikeout rate—decent returns for a 20-year-old rookie. Over the following 16 games, that average dipped to .127, the OPS plummeted to .459 and his strikeout rate spiked to 31%.
One of the big tasks for Craig Albernaz and his staff will be getting Basallo to tap into his excellent tools on a more consistent basis. The big Dominican showed elite bad speed in his first month-plus in the big leagues; his 75.5mph average swing speed would rank top 20 in all of baseball and is on par with star SS Gunnar Henderson. If Basallo can start to make more consistent contact, that bat speed should lead to the hard hit rates and exit velocities that lead to the upper echelon power output we’ve seen from Henderson.
The new manager will also have to figure out the best role for his young backstop in 2026. Injuries to Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez meant that Basallo spent a lot more time at catcher last season than most could have anticipated. Twenty of his 29 starts came behind the dish as Basallo quieted some of those who doubted his ability to provide major-league-caliber defense.
With Sánchez not brought back and Alex Jackson traded to the Twins, Basallo comes into the upcoming season as the undisputed backup to Rutschman. Given that Rutschman’s OPS is over 100 points higher when he’s DH’ing instead of catching, and given Basallo’s undeniable offensive upside, the Orioles may elect to rotate Rutschman and Basallo between catcher and DH while keeping both in the lineup. Basallo is also currently the Orioles’ only left-handed-hitting 1B option, so he should see some starts to spell righties Pete Alonso, Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo.
If a combination of Basallo’s hard work, additional exposure to major league pitching and the benefits of the new coaching staff helps him take a leap, it’ll represent a success on two fronts for the Orioles. A fully-realized Basallo (or close to it) can provide a similar offensive boost to new additions Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. However, Basallo’s success would also represent the first major success of Mike Elias’ efforts to overhaul the Orioles approach in the international free agent market.
Under Elias’ predecessor, Dan Duquette, the O’s largely ignored international free agent prospects. Over Duquette’s eight seasons at the helm (2011 — 2018), Baltimore only had three former international free agent signings crack their top 10 prospects. Jonathan Schoop was a mainstay on the Orioles’ top 10 prospect list from 2011 until his debut in 2013. Eduardo Rodriguez was the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect when they flipped him for reliever Andrew Miller at the 2014 trade deadline. However, both of those players also predated Duquette, with Schoop signing out of Curaçao in 2008 and Rodríguez signing out of Venezuela in 2010.
The only player Duquette signed that ever cracked the Orioles’ top 10 prospects was infielder Jomar Reyes. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Reyes rose as high as the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect in 2016. Injuries and inconsistent performance then derailed his progress through the minors, ultimately leading to his release in 2020. Reyes’ failure to launch was an example of Duquette’s approach to developing foreign talent. While teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Braves were using the international free agent market to propel them to World Series titles, the Orioles fell further and further behind competitive organizations.
Since Elias took charge, the organization has done a complete 180 in the international market. The O’s have committed major resources to revamping their international scouting, opened a state-of-the-art academy in the Dominican Republic and continue to sign more and more top international prospects. Baltimore’s most recent class featured five players in MLB.com’s Top 50 international prospects, 10 total signings and saw the Orioles hand out a club-record $2.3M signing bonus to Dominican shortstop Jose Luis Acevedo.
It’s hard to say what impact Basallo’s ascension to the big leagues and subsequent contract extension had on the most recent class of international free agents, but it couldn’t have hurt. Should the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect reward the front office’s faith in him, it would be a signal to other budding stars in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and beyond that Baltimore is now a serious player when it comes to developing premier international talent.
The Orioles already have other top international prospects rocketing up their farm system. Many evaluators view Orioles’ top pitching prospect Esteban Mejia as a player who can develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Infielder Aron Estrada and LHP Luis De León both have outside shots at making it to the majors in 2026. Fellow top 30 prospects RHP Keeler Morfe and OF Stiven Martinez also present as high-upside prospects that still need plenty of development.
However, Basallo is undoubtedly the face of this new wave of Orioles international talent. A breakout during his rookie season can not just help the 2026 Orioles but also serve as a massive domino in turning this wave into a constant flow of international talent to Baltimore.
Forecasting most players has, well… constrained error bounds. A pretty good player with a point estimate of about 3 WAR might give you a couple more in a great year or lose you three wins in a worse-than-forgettable campaign.
Ronald Acuña Jr., though? He can make your season by himself, if things go his (and your) way. The difference between his MVP-winning 2023 and his unfortunate 2024 was over eight wins in fWAR terms. Eight wins turns a .500 team into a likely playoff entrant. Forecasting Acuña is probably less scary than facing him as a pitcher, but neither should strike you with confidence or zeal.
Career-to-date, status
Oh boy, how to summarize this? Acuña hit the ground running with over 9 fWAR in his first 1,200 career PAs, and then found another gear offensively in 2022-2021, approaching 7 fWAR in under 600 PAs. Unfortunately, there was that whole ACL injury thing suffered in 2021, and 2022 was an uncomfortably pedestrian season. He rebounded with an MVP campaign (9.2 fWAR) in 2023, socking 41 homers, stealing 73 bags, and putting up an absurd .460 xwOBA — he and Aaron Judge were the only two players that year to eclipse even .450 in xwOBA, and Judge only managed 458 PAs that year. 2024 ended up being a weirdly uncomfortable season for him (a career-worst .350 xwOBA) and he never got a change to dig out of that hole, as he tore his other ACL.
His defense also never really returned to anything useful after his first ACL injury — whether due to his own tentativeness, a direction for him to take it easy in the field, or some combination of the two.
Acuña is in the final guaranteed year of an eight-year, $100 million extension he signed early in the 2019 season, which was the largest contract at that time for a player with less than a year of service time. The Braves hold a couple of $17 million options for him in 2027 and 2028, which they’ll certainly exercise — unless they can somehow find a way to layer on an extension in the process. That seems to be in their favor for the obvious reason that Acuña can change an entire season around for a team given how good he can be, but, of course, the cost effectiveness of any deal that would get him to forgo a shot at free agency looms large. As we’ll see below, forecasting him is kind of a nightmare, so it requires a lot of risk tolerance to work out a solution that will result in fresh ink on contract pages (are MLB contracts e-signed now? I have no idea).
Recent performance
Acuña’s 2025 was weird. He approached a .400 xwOBA, and actually outhit it, the first time he’s outhit his xwOBA since his rookie year. (He has a sizable career xwOBA underperformance.) Still, his “new gear” offensively was notably higher than “just” .400. On top of that, it’s hard to make heads or tails of what exactly he changed (or didn’t) in 2025. He walked a ton, and he explicitly credited Tim Hyers and the team’s changed offensive approach to his ability to garner those walks… but the reality is that his chase rate didn’t really budge, and he had a bunch of contact issues, especially on changeups for whatever reason. When Acuña is going berserk, he’s crushing changeups and sliders as well as fastballs, but the changes he made in 2025 made him much more of a fastball-eviscerator. As noted, he really struggled to connect with changeups, while his contact quality on sliders straight-up died as he was fighting them off and flicking them rather than destroying them like he did earlier in his career. What does any of this mean for the future? I have no idea. Acuña’s ability to make on-the-fly adjustments is one of the many things that makes him a phenom, so there’s no reason he’s locked in to any system or mode of performance.
On the flip side, we can probably figure he’s going to continue to be tentative in the field, and might see a bunch of DH time, especially with Sean Murphy apparently not making it back for Opening Day. Acuña hasn’t been a positively defensively in an outfield corner relative to his peers since before the first ACL tear, and last season was as big of a mess defensively as you’ll see from a guy that isn’t miscast as an outfielder in the first place. Suffice to say: his ability to generate value is entirely on his bat, and moreover, on how well his hitting outpaces whatever he gives away WAR-wise from hanging out in right field or appearing as a DH.
All in all, Acuña managed 3.5 fWAR in 412 PAs last year. Nothing to sneeze at, and really, laudable numbers for nearly any MLBer. His 161 wRC+ was the second-highest of his career, but again, (slight) xwOBA overperformance helped there.
Forecasting
Yeah, I don’t know. To do this well, you not only have to somehow figure whether there’s going to be another catastrophic injury, how many small nagging injuries he’ll get breaks for, how much rest is baked in to his schedule, and even aside from all that, which offensive version of the guy you’re going to get. We’ve had two struggle-y seasons, one coming off injury (2022) and one before an injury struck (2024). Those sandwiched an MVP campaign. As noted above, his 2025 was weird but still good despite the weirdness.
If you’re struck by those numbers being “low” — they aren’t — except the PA tally, which resembles 2025 in point estimate terms. The wRC+ is basically in line with his career, and yeah, the defense is a drag, but it is what it is. My interpretation here is that the big question for Acuña is health — there’s basically a 1.5 WAR swing between figuring he misses up to seven weeks with issues, and he plays pretty regularly, and that matters.
And nowhere is that more evident than in the above chart, where, like Austin Riley before him, there’s this giant gap between the rate of production (which looks normal-ish, if skewed towards lower rates a bit) and how that actually translates into production given that he might once again miss a bunch of time. This bimodal distribution is the stuff of nightmares because of how far apart the two peaks are — that’s basically an entire meaty part of the win curve right there, as a result of one ultra-talented 28-year-old. Oof.
With regard to other systems:
Steamer has Acuña at a 148 wRC+ and basically the same WAR/600 as IWAG. The issue is, again, whether you discount his playing time at all given his track record.
ZiPS has him hitting notably better than IWAG/Steamer, and basically a half-win better on a per-600 basis — but also has a PA point estimate of well below 550 PAs. I don’t really know what to do with this, I’m just throwing it out there.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Ronald Acuña Jr. produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
Zac Gallen, also attached to a qualifying offer, fits in the same boat.
New York's continued openness to players attached to a QO is notable because they are going to lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 MLB Draft for signing Bo Bichette.
If Valdez or Gallen is signed by the Mets, they will also lose their third- and sixth-highest picks in the 2026 draft.
The Mets remain in need of a pitcher who can slot in near the top of their rotation, and have also been linked to Freddy Peralta, whom the Milwaukee Brewers have made available via trade.
In order to acquire Peralta, who is one year away from free agency but reportedly open to an extension, New York would likely have to part with one of its young starting pitching prospects and more.
If not Peralta, the 32-year-old Valdez could be a very strong fit.
After 30-year-old Ranger Suarez recently signed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, it's fair to believe that Valdez can be had on a three- or four-year pact with a higher average annual value than Suarez received.
Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina - Imagn Images
The above type of deal for Valdez would theoretically be in the wheelhouse of David Stearns, who generally prefers to not go long on contracts for pitchers over 30.
Valdez has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 767.2 innings.
After leading the American League in innings pitched in 2022 (201.1 IP), Valdez hasn't really slowed down. He fired 198.0 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192.0 innings this past season.
His ERA in 2025 was 3.66 -- the highest it's been since 2019, when Valdez was working mostly in relief. But while the ERA was a tick high, there wasn't much cause for concern elsewhere, as Valdez's WHIP, hit rate, walk rate, home run rate, and strikeout rate were all right around his career averages.
When looking at Valdez's relatively down 2025 season, it's also skewed a bit by a rough final six weeks.
Valdez had a 2.62 ERA ahead of his start on Aug. 3, but was hit hard in six of his final 10 outings. In the middle of that tough stretch, though, Valdez had one start where he fired 7.0 shutout innings, another where he allowed three runs across 7.0 innings, and closed his season on a high note, tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 on Sept. 25.
SAN FRANCISCO — The Warriors may have seen their title chances disappear Monday night.
Star Jimmy Butler suffered a torn ACL in the Warriors’ 135-112 victory over the Heat, according to ESPN.com.
Butler, 36, was helped off the court with a right knee injury at the 7:41 mark of the third quarter against his former team.
Jimmy Butler suffered a torn ACL for the Warriors on Jan. 19, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Butler was hurt moments after catching a pass in the paint when he went down hard and awkwardly following a collision with the Heat’s Davion Mitchell — who was called for a foul.
After the play, Butler was asking for two free throws, a positive sign to coach Steve Kerr that his spirits were good and “hopefully that’s a good sign.”
“We’re all really concerned but we’ll know more after the MRI,” Kerr said. “Everybody is subdued because of the injury, waiting to hear the news.”
Butler’s knee buckled upon his landing and he grimaced and grabbed at his knee while down for a couple of minutes.
He needed teammates Gary Payton II and Buddy Hield to escort him off the court and to the locker room after the fall on the Warriors’ offensive end.
When he finally got up with assistance, he was unable to put any pressure on his knee.
Worried Warriors teammates surround Jimmy Butler after the injury. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
“It’s something you hadn’t seen before, usually you expect him get up and even if he can’t finish the game just get off the sideline. I just told him to take his time and figure out what he needed in that moment,” Stephen Curry said.
“It’s kind of funny he was still cracking jokes over there while he was on the ground in true Jimmy fashion. He’s always going to have a good time no matter the situation is. I do love that perspective and that part of his personality, even in the worst of moment he’s still having a good time. He was trying to get to the free-throw line, he said it was two shots.”
In just under 21 minutes, Butler had 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting, four assists and three rebounds.
He is Golden State’s second-leading scorer behind Curry, having averaged 20.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists entering the week.
The Warriors currently sit at 25-19 and the eighth seed in the Western Conference.
A disgruntled Butler was acquired last season from the Heat to add another veteran star to Golden State’s aging roster.
The Warriors did make it to the Western Conference semifinals with Butler’s help, but Curry got hurt in Game 1 against the Timberwolves and Golden State was dismissed in five games.
This will only add to questions about whether the Warriors should consider a drastic move at the trade deadline.
“He’s an alpha. He’s one of those guys in the league who everybody else in the gym knows that’s the guy,” Kerr said.
“He has that presence but he also has that game where we can play through him possession after possession. So, assuming we’ll be without him for a little bit, we’re going to miss him, we’ve got a lot of players who can play and we’re showing our depth right now. We’ll just wait for the news to figure out what’s next.”
The Montreal Canadiens should be looking to add to their roster ahead of the 2026 NHL trade deadline. They are third in the Atlantic Division at this point in the season and should not be afraid to boost their roster because of it.
Adding another top-six forward should be one of the Canadiens' top objectives this season. When looking at trade candidates around the NHL, St. Louis Blues forward Jordan Kyrou stands out as a very interesting option to consider.
With the Blues having an incredibly disappointing season, several of their players have been in the rumor mill with the trade deadline less than two months away. Kyrou is among the top Blues players creating chatter, and he would have the potential to be a strong addition to the Canadiens' roster.
Kyrou has recorded eight goals and 20 points in 39 games so far this campaign. While these numbers are not the most impressive, there is reason to believe he should turn things around when looking at his past success. In three out of his previous four seasons, the 27-year-old winger has hit the 70-point mark. He also scored 31 goals in each of his last three seasons. Right now, he is struggling on a Blues team where everyone else is performing below expectations.
If the Canadiens acquired Kyrou, he could make some real magic on the Habs' first line with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. He would also give the Canadiens another impactful player to work with on their power play.
Kyrou would also be much more than a rental for the Canadiens, as he has an $8.125 million cap hit until the end of the 2030-31 season. This adds to his appeal, but he also has a full no-trade clause, so he would need to approve a move to Montreal for any chance of a deal going down.
The Phillies are reportedly ‘livid’ that Bo Bichette spurned their $200 million offer in favor of a shorter-term deal with the Mets, with reporter Jim Salisbury saying, “It feels like the Lufthansa heist at LaGuardia from ‘Goodfellas’.”
The Mets are looking to add reinforcements in their outfield and rotation following the Bichette signing.
Even with their recent moves, the Mets have yet to figure out how to escape the Dodgers’ shadow, writes Joel Sherman. In the piece, Sherman shared some insights into how personally Steve and Alex Cohen tried to recruit Kyle Tucker.
CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson ranked the top 20 prospects in the NL East, with Nolan McLean topping the list.
Sarah Langs explained how the team’s new-look infield could pull off a rare feat on Opening Day.
Around the National League East
One day after losing infielder Ha-Seong Kim for an extended period of time, the Braves inked infielder Jorge Mateo to a one-year deal.
Cole Weintraub identified some notable minor-league additions to keep an eye on in Phillies camp.
The Good Phight talked about Philadelphia needing to rely on pieces from their farm system to keep their window open.
With spring training set to begin in less than one month, there are still some big free agents remaining on the market.
Aaron Judge exemplifies the Yankees’ arc a decade into his career, writes Bryan Hoch.
The Orioles made their biggest splash yet on the international market—eight players from the Dominican Republic and two from Venezuela.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Lukas Vlahos graded the team’s signing of Bo Bichette.
Elian Peña came in at number 13 on the Amazin’ Avenue list of Mets’ prospects list.
This Date in Mets History
The reunion between Tom Seaver and the Mets ended on this date in 1984, as the White Sox picked up the right-hander after the Mets left The Franchise unprotected in the annual free agent compensation draft.
It appears the Athletics were ready to pull the trigger on a big move.
After acquiring second baseman Jeff McNeil in a trade with the New York Mets earlier this offseason, the A’s weren’t done searching for infield upgrades.
The Green and Gold had a deal in place with the St. Louis Cardinals for eight-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday, citing people briefed on the discussions.
St. Louis ultimately traded Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Jack Martinez on Jan. 13.
Rosenthal also reported that the A’s would have absorbed more of the $42 million remaining on Arenado’s contract in a potential deal than Arizona will, but, according to someone familiar with Arenado’s thinking, the third baseman, who has a full no-trade clause, indicated he would not approve a trade to the A’s.
Arenado batted an underwhelming .237/.298/.377 with 12 home runs and 52 RBI in 107 games with St. Louis last season.
With Arenado out of the picture, the A’s, according to Rosenthal, intend to use Max Muncy at third base, with Brett Harris and Darell Hernaiz also in the mix.
