Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing some of the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. Without further ado, let the stat party begin.

MONDAY

The Mets scored 10 runs in the 12th inning. It was the fourth-most runs scored all-time in an extra inning, and the most in the National League since the Reds scored 10 in the top of the 13th on May 15, 1919.

The Mets played at least 12 innings for just the second time in five years, with the previous time being a 13-inning loss against the Dodgers on May 23, 2025.

The Mets played their 10th extra-inning game of 2026. That’s the most in MLB this season, and the most the Mets have played through the first 47 games of a season since 1978 (13). 

The Mets won the series opener in Washington for the 10th time in their last 11 series at Nationals Park.

A.J. Ewing became the fourth Met to reach base 14 times in their first seven career games, joining Mike Vail, Kazuo Matsui, and Daniel Murphy.

Brett Baty’s 451-foot homer was the second-longest of his career, trailing only a 455-foot homer hit in the same ballpark off Brad Lord on August 20, 2025.

TUESDAY

With an outfield of Nick Morabito, A.J. Ewing, and Carson Benge in the bottom of the eighth, the Mets had three outfielders age 23 or younger on the field for the first time since September 29, 1984, when the bottom of the eighth featured Billy Beane in left, Darryl Strawberry in center, and Herm Winningham in right.

After recording his first multi-homer game as a Met with two homers in his first two at-bats, Bo Bichette couldn’t deliver another dinger in his third at-bat; however, he did hit a 114.9 mph ground out that marked the Mets’ hardest-hit ball of the season thus far.

Carson Benge became the first Mets rookie with 10 hits in a four-game span since Pete Alonso from August 15-18, 2019.

WEDNESDAY

Juan Soto’s first home run marked his 150th career base hit at 110+ mph. He is the fourteenth player in the Statcast era (since 2015) to reach that mark, after Yordan Alvarez reached it five days earlier.

Soto also became the fourth Met in the Statcast era to hit multiple home runs over 400 feet at 109+ mph in the same game, along with J.D. Davis (April 6, 2019), Robinson Canó (August 17, 2020), and Pete Alonso (August 8, 2024).

THURSDAY

After going 0-4 in games ending with a final score of 2-1 to open the year, the Mets finally triumphed by a score of 2-1. The following night, the Mets lost their fifth 2-1 game, giving them the most such losses in MLB this season.

FRIDAY

Juan Soto recorded his 107th career hit against the Marlins, his most against any team in MLB by a considerable margin (his next-most is 94 against the Phillies).

SATURDAY

The Mets recorded three hits for the second consecutive game. It’s the first time they’ve recorded three hits or fewer in consecutive games since doing so in the final game of the 2023 regular season against the Phillies and Opening Day 2024 against the Brewers.

SUNDAY

The Mets surrendered their first walk-off grand slam since Jacob Stallings’ infamous moonshot off Edwin Díaz on July 17, 2021. It’s the second walk-off grand slam the Mets have allowed at Marlins Park, along with Giancarlo Stanton’s on May 13, 2012.

The Mets surrendered their sixth grand slam of the season. No other team has allowed more than three. Since the start of 2024, the Mets have now allowed nine grand slams in the eighth inning or later. No other team has allowed more than six such grand slams in that span.

The Mets have mustered just two extra-base hits over their past four games. It’s the first time they’ve recorded two or fewer extra-base hits in a four-game span since April 20-23, 2014.

The Mets have scored two runs or fewer through nine innings 27 times this season. The only other N.L. teams since 2000 with that many such games through their first 53 games of a season were the 2013 Marlins and the 2019 Marlins.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:
Since 1901, only two players have recorded 50 stolen bases and 20 triples in a single season: Ty Cobb, who did it three times, and Lance Johnson, who did it with the 1996 Mets.

The New York Yankees have had over 1,700 players play for the organization since its first season in 1901. Oddly enough, one of the repeated names in that history is Bobby Brown. You are never the other Bobby on your birthday, so to get that out of the way early this is not about Dr. Bobby Brown, the late dynasty Yankees infielder, physician, and former American League president (or the “My Prerogative” singer, for that matter). Today belongs to Rogers Lee “Bobby” Brown, the switch-hitting outfielder who spent parts of three seasons in the Bronx during the late 1970s and early 1980s.

“Uptown” Bobby Brown’s Yankees tenure came during a strange transitional window for the franchise. The late-1970s championship group was beginning to change, George Steinbrenner’s Yankees were still chasing big names and roster fixes, and plenty of players passed through the Bronx trying to carve out a role. Brown became one of those players, bringing speed, outfield versatility, and enough pop to earn some playing time.

Rogers Lee “Bobby” Brown
Born: May 24, 1954 (Norfolk, VA)
Yankees Tenure: 1978-1981

A native of Virginia’s Eastern Shore, Brown attended Northampton High School in Eastville, Virginia. The Baltimore Orioles selected him in the 11th round of the 1972 amateur draft, and Brown agreed to sign a contract to begin his professional career.

Brown spent several years in the minor leagues but was released by the Orioles in April of 1976. A few weeks later he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies and would be in their minor leagues until he and Jay Johnstone were sent from the Phillies to the Yankees for disappointing free-agent signing Rawly Eastwick in June 1978.

The “first stint” Brown had as a Yankee ended that December, after only a few months, when he was selected as a Rule 5 Draft pick by the New York Mets at the end of 1978. The Mets, however, eventually placed Brown on waivers and he was selected by the Toronto Blue Jays the following March. That marked Brown’s fourth team in less than a year.

Toronto kept the 25-year-old on their roster long enough for Brown to make his MLB debut. During the first month of the season Brown appeared in four games and did not record a hit in his 10 at-bats. On April 19th of the 1979 season Brown was purchased from the Blue Jays by the Yankees. Just in case you lost track this is the run of clubs starting in June of 1978, until the next May: Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees.

Following that crazy shuffle that must have felt like a real-life version of the hat shuffle jumbotron game, Brown would spend the next two complete seasons in the Bronx. After returning to the Yankees Brown was given the choice of the numbers 31 or 13 for the Columbus farm team. Brown allegedly stated “Things can’t get any worse, give me 13.”

Brown appeared in 30 games for the 1979 Yankees and hit .250, with skipper Billy Martin often deploying him in the outfield. However, most of the season was spent in Columbus where Brown hit .371 and stole 22 bases. His work ethic and speed was enough to impress Steinbrenner and scouting guru Gene Michael, who decided Brown belonged on the Yankees.

The 1980 season became the best year of Brown’s MLB career. Given a much larger role under new manager Dick Howser, he appeared in 137 games for the Yankees and spent most of his time in center field while also moving around both corner spots. Brown hit .260 with 14 home runs, 47 RBI, 65 runs scored, and 27 stolen bases. When lined up in center field Brown was flanked by Lou Piniella and Reggie Jackson. Brown’s ability to cover ground kept the outfield defense respectable.

That year was also the clearest example of what Brown could bring to a roster. He was not a star, but he gave the Yankees athleticism in the outfield, switch-hitting balance in the lineup, and speed on the basepaths during a season in which New York won 103 games before falling to the Royals in the ALCS sweep — a hitless series for Brown.

By the start of 1981, Steinbrenner’s game of managerial musical chairs continued, with Howser out, Michael in, and Bob Lemon eventually replacing Michael that September as well. Regardless, Brown’s role significantly shrank, as he appeared in 31 games during the strike-shortened season and hit .226 while bouncing between all three outfield spots. The Yankees returned to the World Series that year, but taking the first two games in New York, the Yanks fell to the Dodgers in six games.

The bench role in the 1981 Fall Classic represented the end of Brown’s Yankees career. The Yankees had made a trade with the Seattle Mariners to acquire lefty pitcher Shane Rawley, and Brown became a player to be named later in the deal. That year, he appeared in 79 games and stole 28 bases while continuing to add value as an athletic defensive outfielder.

The Mariners would release Brown in March of 1983, and he signed the following month with the San Diego Padres, with whom he spent the final three seasons of his MLB career.

Brown’s time in San Diego included another trip to the World Series. In 1984, he appeared in 85 games for the Padres as they won their first National League pennant in franchise history before falling to an overpowering Detroit Tigers team. That made Brown part of two World Series teams, in two different leagues, both of which fell in the Fall Classic. His career ended after an ugly showing in the 1985 season, and the 31-year-old never played pro ball again.

Across seven major league seasons, Brown appeared in 502 games and finished with 313 hits, 26 home runs, 130 RBI, and 110 stolen bases. A Hall of Fame writeup from a few years back noted that after asking for his release from the Padres, he teamed up with fellow 1981 Yankees outfielder Jerry Mumphrey to co-found company called Major League Dairies, distributing milk and dairy products nationwide.

For Yankees fans, Brown may not be one the first person people think about when they hear his name, but he had a nice run in the big leagues and earned a spot in the Eastern Shore Baseball Foundation Hall of Fame. Happy birthday, Bobby!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

For the last four seasons, I’ve dialed up the old analog machine to project the balance of that current season. As silly as it sounds, there have been time – like last year – when the predictive outcome was more accurate than anyone would like.

Before this goes any further – this is tongue-in-cheek. This is not real. Do not use this for anything else other than for a few minutes of person enjoyment (or angst). This is the Battery Power Almanac (BPA), similar to the Farmer’s Almanac, which hopefully most of you have at least heard of at some point in your life. If not, go ask an grandparent or aunt or uncle or the internet.

Here’s how this works: Each of the “6” years going back 40 years will be reviewed for composite team or player results to get prediction now how the 2026 will pan out. Basically, this is the anti-AI and probably about as accurate. Also, here’s a 2026-specific acknowledgement, the past versions of this folly took place several weeks earlier in the season. This year, well, 2026 is running late.

But hey, who’s counting? Admit it, you probably even forgot this was a thing!

That’s okay, because it is time to buckle in on a bench seat of a 1986 Caprice and get ready to go for an old-school ride. Be careful, the metal gets hot this time of year.

2026 is going to go really good or really bad

Last year, when BPA predicted 81 wins it seems an impossibility, and yet, it ended up erroring on the side of optimism. So this year when BPA dialed up a 79 win season, either the outlier 1996 season is going to be the predictive indicator or something horrendous is going to happen during the rest of the season.

I can’t imagine what that might be short of the Braves being sold to a bitcoin-rich clown who decides to fold the team and turn Truist Park into a clown training academy?

1986: 72-89
1996: 96-66
2006: 79-83
2016: 68-93

If you happen to be too young to remember 1996, that Braves team should have won the World Series. The team was much better than the 1995 one.

Jim Leyritz still haunts my dreams.

The other years? From the year than ended the Division streak (2006) to the trash that was 1986 and 2016, “6” wasn’t good. But with Bobby Cox passing away earlier this year, maybe his “6” will bring some luck to Atlanta in 2026.

World Series or bust

As mentioned above, that 1996 Braves team won the National League East and the NL pennant before facing the New York Yankees in the World Series. The Braves were up 2-0 in the series and then 2-1 going into Game 4. In Game 4 were up 6-3 going into the eight inning an then it happened. That home run; still too soon.

You know, ’96 was better than the alternatives because the other three seasons saw Atlanta finish an average of more than 20 games out of first place.

1986: Last place in the NL West
1996: Lost in World Series 4-2
2006: Third place in NL East
2016: Last place in NL East

Your 2026 Atlanta Braves All-Star or six

BPA is says three 2026 All-Stars because sometimes math isn’t hard. If three is the magic number, and through late-May it seems like three would be a pretty low bar, at least one of those players should be a starting pitcher. Chris Sale seems like a safe bet. As for the other players, based on history, an infielder and outfielder seem to be likely, which is probably good news for two of the three of Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II.

However, let’s get jiggy with it (okay, that was 1998, but close enough) and project six – yes, six All-Stars: Chris Sale, TWO-TIME ALL-STAR BRYCE ELDER, Matt Olson, Raisel Iglesias, Drake Baldwin and Dylan Lee.

1986: (1) Dale Murphy (OF)
1996: (6) Tom Glavine (SP), Chipper Jones (3B), Greg Maddux (SP), Fred McGriff (1B), John Smoltz (SP), Mark Wohlers (RP)
2006: (3) Andruw Jones (OF), Brian McCann (C), Edger Renteria (SS)
2016: (1) Julio Teheran (SP)

Trophy Time

How will the Braves fair when it comes to individual awards? BPA thinks it is time to get your polishing cloth out and get ready to shine a trophy or two.

MVP

No MVP for the Braves in 2026, but chances are there will be multiple vote-getters in the top 10.

1986: Dale Murphy (20)
1996: Chipper Jones (4), John Smoltz (11), Marquis Grissom (13),
2006: Andruw Jones (11), Chipper Jones (20)
2016: Freddie Freeman (6)

Cy Young

BPA used AI and AI said John Smoltz was going to win the 2026 NL Cy Young. Don’t listen to that noise. Using the 1996 Guide to Making Your Dreams Almost Come True the Braves end up with two of the top five in the Cy Young.

1986: Zero
1996: John Smoltz (WINNER), Greg Maddux (5)
2006: John Smoltz (7)
2016: Zip

Rookie of the Year

Last year, BPA thought Drake Baldwin could factor in the ROY race if they got in enough games. Admittedly, BPA didn’t foresee Sean Murphy getting hurt. If there’s no other reason to not listen to BPA for any of your personal prognostication purposes, it not able to project a Sean Murphy injury should be reason enough.

No chance the Braves get a ROY the year this year. Heck, no one probably even gets a vote.

1986: Sadly, no one voted for Paul Assenmacher.
1996: Jermaine Dye (6)
2006: Six Florida Marlins got ROY votes. Zero Braves did.
2016: Remember when we all dreamed on Tyrell Jenkins?

When the team sucks, the manager does not get awarded

BPA is just chuckling at this year’s project. Every result is just nope. Walt Weiss will get votes this year. Will it be enough votes? First-year managers with success often get rewarded, so never say never but BPA still says nope.

1986: Chuck Tanner won a World Series with the Pirates but not even close with Atlanta.
1996: Bobby Cox (4)
2006: Nothing to see here
2016: Nor here.

Best Boys

It feels like no one talks about WAR anymore. The whole bWAR vs. fWAR seems like a relic from a different era – sort of like WWE vs. WCW. Chris Sale seems like the safe choice as does Matt Olson.

1986: Starting pitcher, David Palmer (3.6 bWAR), Third baseman, Ken Oberkfell (3.4 bWAR)
1996: Starting pitcher, John Smoltz (7.7 bWAR), Third baseman, Chipper Jones (6.2 bWAR)
2006: Starting pitcher, John Smoltz (5.8 bWAR), Outfielder, Andruw Jones (5.6 bWAR)
2016: Starting pitcher, Julio Teheran (4.8 bWAR), First baseman, Freddie Freeman (6.2 bWAR)

What have we learned from this year’s BPA?

More than anything else, this is a reminder than 1986, 2006 and 2016 were unfortunate. There weren’t too many redeeming qualities about 2016 and 1986, especially.

If, for some reason, 2026 ends up like any non-1996 year, then next year maybe you should listen more closely to BPA and the whispers of the past.

Let’s all root for the 2026 get into the World Series but NOT face the Yankees.

The last time the Royals beat the Yankees was on October 7, 2024 – Game 2 of the American League Divisional Series. The Royals dropped the last two games of that series, and have not won a regular season game against the Bronx Bombers since in nine tries. They were swept in New York against them earlier this year, getting outscored 24-6.

New York Yankees (31-22) vs. Kansas City Royals (22-31) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Yankees: 4.79 runs scored/game (6th in MLB), 3.53 runs allowed/game (3rd)

Royals: 3.91 runs scored/game (25th), 4.38 runs allowed/game (14th)

The Yankees have hit the most home runs and have the highest walk rate in baseball, but they are a much more pedestrian team hitting on the road. Away from Yankee Stadium they are hitting .223/.306/.378 as a team, hitting just 31 of their 75 home runs on the road. Aaron Judge and Ben Rice are both among the top five home run hitters in baseball. Judge has hit .318 with 17 home runs in 46 games against the Royals in his career, but just .250/.298/.511 with seven home runs in 22 games at Kauffman Stadium.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is red-hot, hitting .432/.488/.649 over his last ten games. Ryan McMahon is just 5-for-his-last-43 (.116). Austin Wells is hitting .114 against lefties this year. The Yankees have become a threat on the bases with the sixth-most steals.

Monday’s game will air exclusively as the national telecast on ESPN with Jon Sciambi, Eduardo Pérez and David Ross on the call. Will Warren has not completed six innings in any of his last three starts. Lefties are hitting .255/.303/.422 against him this year. Michael Wacha has a 3.12 ERA in 13 games in his career against the Yankees.

Cam Schlittler has been the best pitcher in the American League so far, according to Fangraphs WAR. He is fourth in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio at 5.77. He throws his 97.8 mph fastball half the time, mixing in a cutter, sinker, curve, and slider. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Tuesday, but Bailey Falter and Luinder Avila will likely share innings as they did last Tuesday against the Red Sox.

Gerrit Cole tossed six shutout innings in his season debut against the Rays last week, his first MLB game since September of 2024. Cole won the Cy Young in 2023, and had a 3.41 ERA in 17 starts in 2024, but missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. Royals hitters are batting just .199/.246/.335 against him in eight career starts. Salvador Perez is just 1-for-15 (.067) against him. The Wednesday game will air on Amazon for subscribers in New York, Connecticut, north and central New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania.

The Yankees have a 3.51 bullpen ERA, 11th-best in baseball. Closer David Bednar has converted 11 of 13 save opportunities, but has given up seven runs in his last eight outings. Former Royals lefty Tim Hill has a 75.8 percent groundball rate, highest in baseball. He also has an 11.8 percent strikeout rate, third-lowest. Fernando Cruz has struck out or walked 47 percent of the hitters he has faced this year.

The Yankees are not an ideal opponent for a team looking to pick themselves off the map. They are a talented team, no doubt, but the Royals seem to be intimidated by facing such a marquee team, especially when a national television audience is watching. They’ll need to be fearless to finally beat these guys and win their first series against the Yankees since 2023.

Monday notes…

• EIGHT IS ENOUGH: The Cubs have not lost a ninth consecutive game since July 17, 2022, when they fell at home to the Mets, 4-3, in 10 innings in the second game of a doubleheader. They had lost the first game, 2-1, in 11 innings. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• LET’S NOT DO THIS: A loss today would give the Cubs the dubious distinction of having the longest losing streak, nine games, of any team that had multiple double-digit winning streaks in a season. The 1916 Giants had winning streak of 17, 14 and 12 games. The first came after they had lost eight in a row. The second and third were separated by a tie. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• IT’S AS BAD AS YOU THINK IT IS: In their eight losses, the Cubs have been outscored, 43-20, an average of 5.4-2.5. They have been outhit, 68-39, an average of 8.5-3.8. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: One day after Jon Lieber one-hits the Reds, Kerry Wood matches that feat by one-hitting the Brewers at Wrigley Field. The only Milwaukee hit is a leadoff single by Mark Loretta in the seventh. Wood walks two and strikes out 14. The Cubs win 1-0 with the only run a solo homer by Rondell White in the fourth. It happened 25 years ago today, Friday, May 25, 2001.

Cubs lineup:

The Pirates lineup was not available at posting time. Please check BCB social media for the Pirates lineup.

Ben Brown, RHP vs. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP

Ben Brown’s first two starts this year, after being pressed into the rotation due to injuries, were very good. The third, last Tuesday vs. the Brewers, wasn’t quite as good, though still decent — three runs in five innings with six strikeouts. He threw 82 pitches in that one so should be fully stretched out to go as far as needed today.

Brown’s only appearance vs. the Pirates this year was two scoreless innings of relief April 11 at Wrigley Field in a game the Cubs lost in 11 innings.

Here’s one really positive thing about Brown — he has allowed just one home run this year in 38.2 innings, and that was to the very first batter he faced this season on Opening Day (Daylen Lile of the Nationals), so he’s faced 153 batters since then without allowing a long ball. Keep up the great work, Ben.

Carmen Mlodzinski has made eight starts and two “bulk guy” relief appearances after an opener this year, after being mostly a reliever up to this year.

He threw 5.1 shutout innings against the Cubs April 10 at Wrigley Field, and last time out, last Wednesday vs, the Cardinals, he threw five shutout innings. He has allowed just two home runs this year in 50 innings. This will not be an easy game for Cubs hitters.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around PNC Park.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. If you do go there to interact with Pirates fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

The Mets open their three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field on Monday at 4:10 p.m. on SNY.

Mets Notes

• Nolan McLean (2-3, 3.57 ERA)looks to rebound from his uncharacteristic outing vs. the Nationals on May 19 when he allowed nine runs (six earned)
• A.J. Ewing had his third career two-hit game and picked up his third stolen base of the season in Sunday's loss
• New York has scored just four runs in their last four games (1-3) and find themselves tied for the second-worst record in the NL (22-31) with the Giants

Today's Lineups

What channel is SNY?

Check your TV or streaming provider's website or channel finder to find your local listings.

How can I stream the game?

The way to stream SNY games is via the MLB App or MLB.tv.

In order to stream games in SNY’s regional territory, you will need to have SNY as part of your TV package (cable or streaming), or you can now purchase an in-market SNY subscription package via MLB or Amazon. Both ways will allow fans to watch the Mets on their computer, tablet or mobile phone.

How can I watch the game on my computer via MLB?

To get started on your computer, click here and then follow these steps:

• Log in using your provider credentials. If you are unsure of your provider credentials, please contact your provider.

• Link your provider credentials with a new or existing MLB.com account.

• Log in using your MLB.com credentials to watch Mets games on SNY.

• Select the SNY Mets game you wish to view from the Multimedia Center.

How can I watch the game on the MLB App?

MLB App access is included for FREE with SNY. To access SNY on your favorite supported Apple or Android mobile device, please follow the steps below.

• Download the free MLB App.

• Open “MLB” and tap on “Subscriber Login” for Apple Devices or “Sign in with MLB.com” for Android Devices.

• Type in your MLB.com credentials and tap “Log In.” 

• To access live or on-demand content, tap on the "Watch" tab from the bottom navigation bar. Select the "Games" sub-tab to see a listing of available games. You can scroll to previous dates using the left and right arrows. Tap on a game to select from the game feeds available. 

For more information on how to stream Mets games on SNY, please click here.

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Start your week off right with a trio of Memorial Day MLB same-game parlay predictions for Monday, May 25.

My top MLB picks begin with the New York Yankees cashing in at Kauffman Stadium and wrap up with the Los Angeles Dodgers filling up the box score against the Colorado Rockies.

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
NYY vs  KCR	+330
CIN vs NYM	+370
COL vs  LAD	+315

Yankees vs. Royals SGP: Bronx Bombers rough up Wacha

Kansas City Royals veteran Michael Wacha is eyeing statistical correction with his 2.70 ERA way below his 4.08 xFIP and supported by an unsustainable 82.5% strand rate and .232 BABIP that are also way below his respective 72.7% and .287 marks from last year.

As a result, I like the New York Yankees to rough up the righty. In particular, outfielder Trent Grisham and second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. The pair of left-handed hitters respectively sport solid .360 and .351 wOBAs against righties since the beginning of last season.

This SGP is in play to +300.

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

See full analysis of this game in our Yankees vs. Royals predictions.

Reds vs. Mets SGP: Plenty of runs at Citi

Pairing the game total Over with the Over on Cincinnati Reds lefty Nick Lodolo’s strikeouts provides an odds boost because the legs are uncorrelated.

Lodolo’s 16.4% strikeout rate is miles behind the 26.2% mark through his first four seasons, and the Reds and New York Mets respectively rank third in sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks. 

Turning to the Matt McLain leg, he’s priced for profit because his .248 BABIP is way below his .292 mark from last year, despite his 34.4% squared-up contact rate checking higher than last year’s 32.6% mark. He’s also piled up five runs, eight hits, and seven RBI across his past 10 games.

I like this SGP at +350 and higher.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, CINR

Rockies vs. Dodgers SGP: Dodgers fill up the box score

Colorado Rockies righty Tanner Gordon has surrendered an equally poor .398 wOBA to left-handed batters and .390 mark to righty bats during his career, so it’s no surprise he’s been saddled with a 6.96 ERA and 5.68 xERA.

So, with the wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium, I’m targeting the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Freddie Freeman (.371), Will Smith (.375), and Kyle Tucker (.352) all sport high-end wOBAs against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of the 2025 campaign, and the Dodgers already teed off on Gordon earlier this season for six runs across just four innings on April 20.

I’d back this SGP to +300

• Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, COLR

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The Texas Rangers will be looking to get back on track after getting swept by the AL-worst Los Angeles Angels.

With a clear pitching advantage, my Astros vs. Rangers predictions expect the home team to rebound quickly.

Let's break down my MLB picks for Monday, May 25.

Who will win Astros vs Rangers today: Rangers (-130)

Houston Astros starter Tatsuya Imai owns an 8.31 ERA on the season and has conceded at least three runs in four of five starts. That is alarming, given he has only pitched five innings once.

His numbers are especially bad against left-handed hitters, as he has posted a .418 wOBA, 22.4 BB%, and 2.25 WHIP facing lefties.

The Texas Rangers are well equipped to take advantage with Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo, Evan Carter, and Alejandro Osuna projected to hit high in the order.

I think the Rangers will get to Imai, and see value in backing the home side to -140.

COVERS INTEL:Tatsuya Imai owns a 6.09 xERA on the year, putting him in the sixth percentile league-wide.

Astros vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-105)

The Astros rank 26th in average and 27th in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, hitting for neither average nor power.

That sets up well for Rangers starter Kumar Rocker, who has held opponents to a 36.4% hard-hit rate and 6.8% barrel rate over his last three starts. He will be able to limit power, and he has a well-rested bullpen behind him after the previous two Rangers starters combined to pitch 13 innings. 

I don't see the Astros scoring enough to push this game Over the number, and would play the Under to -120.

Astros vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Astros +110 | Rangers -130
• Run line: Astros +1.5 (-180) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-105)

Astros vs Rangers trend

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One of the things I am always sensitive to is the ratio between positive and negative news. The analysis itself is neutral, but what we choose to analyze is never neutral. We will always come in with preconceived notions about what we are likely to find. So, every once in awhile I want to highlight something we think will be positive to give us that lime wedge after a series of tequila shots.

Coming into the season, Christian Walker was predicted to go in one of two directions. He could go the Jose Abreu route and completely fall apart or he could rebound and have a year typical of what he had done in the past. Of course, the basic numbers indicate the latter, but we should dig a little deeper and see how similar these numbers are to his other full seasons. We will look beyond the COVID year and see how similar Walker’s underlying numbers are to those Arizona seasons that influenced the Astros to make the signing in the first place.

Before we jump into the numbers, we should look at some of the numbers we will be including. Obviously, numbers like strikeout rate and walk rate are self-explanatory. We will also look at BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Historically, the league average for that number usually rests around .300, but we sometimes see some minor fluctuations there. We will also look at isolated power and secondary average. Isolated power is a part of secondary average and it usually rests somewhere between .150 and .175 on average. Secondary average mirrors batting average, so a .250 secondary average is usually around the league average.

So, at first blush it doesn’t appear as if 2026 is way better than anything he has done before, but it appears that 2025 was way worse than just about anything he had done before. 2021 would be the only comparison and his strikeout rate was lower and his walk rate was higher that season. His BABIP was also higher that season as well. So, it could easily be said that 2025 was the worst full season of Walker’s career.

When we are looking for real improvement we often look at the statcast numbers. Sometimes a player can be lucky one year and unlucky the next. What we are looking for are reasons for the improvement outside of luck. Obviously, the K rate is the first really positive indicator. He is also walking more often as well. Let’s look at the quality of contact between 2025 and 2026.

What do these numbers mean? They mean what they usually mean. Walker was not as bad as he looked last season and he isn’t quite as good as he has looked so far this season. It is the implications of this that are more important for us to consider. Walker has one more year on his contract. He currently sits at 1.7 FWAR. That followed a 1.1 FWAR count last season for a grand total of 2.8 FWAR for the first year plus of his Astros tenure.

The Fangraphs standard for value is between eight and nine million per win. If we set it at the low end then we would expect Walker to produce five wins in his first two seasons to be worth the 40 million he will be owed over the course of those seasons. That means that he would need to earn 2.2 more FWAR between now and the end of the season to recoup the 40 million spent. Given his current pace that seems doable, but the Statcast above predicts some regression.

The elephant in the room

As many of you know, last week I called for a tear down and Walker was one of the names mentioned. Trading him will be easier said than done. He has a limited no trade clause that lists six teams he cannot be traded to. Who are the teams on that list? We are not sure. Those lists tend to be individual to the player. Sometimes they list teams that are perennially in the cellar. Sometimes they list organizations with players or coaches they don’t like. Sometimes they list cities they wouldn’t want to live in. It is impossible to know where his head is at here and how that would impact his market.

Yet, one cannot deny the desire to cash in on an asset while he is near the peak of what his value is. Walker is on pace to hit 40 home runs this season. He isn’t going to hit 40 home runs in all likelihood, but some rube somewhere in a GM’s chair might believe that he might. If that gamble comes with a good prospect then the prospect plus the financial savings is something to consider.

Of course, the Astros are also coming off of a three game sweep of the Cubs. They are currently 11-11 in May as the pitching has seemingly found some level outside the sewer. They could lean into the current uptick and hope that another rebound is possible. You obviously aren’t getting there without a productive Walker. They also could believe that a Walker is a key part of whatever run they could make in 2027. At any rate, Walker’s performance has been a positive this season and even if the Statcast results predict a regression, it would still be growth from last season. What do you think? Would you hold onto Walker if a team came calling with a good prospect?