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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Orioles are about to play a hugely important series.

At this point, they’re all hugely important. With 47 games left and six teams within a game and a half of the third wild card spot, the O’s are going to need to start stacking wins if they have any hope of remaining in playoff competition. But more than that, they need to beat up on the teams they’re directly competing against.

Enter the Texas Rangers, who currently hold the coveted final wild card spot despite a sub-.500 record. They’re one game ahead of the Orioles, who could have tied Texas in the standings yesterday if they hadn’t botched their series finale against the Angels. So the Orioles have a golden opportunity to draw even with the Rangers with a series win or pull ahead with a sweep. But if the O’s get swept, well…let’s not think about that.

The Orioles haven’t faced the Rangers since March 30-April 1, the Birds’ first homestand of the year, before it was apparent how much of a slog this season would become for both teams. Texas took two out of three in that series, improving to 4-1 at the time, and it’s the last time they were three games over .500. Since then they’ve hovered around the .500 mark all year. For a while that was good enough to stay in first place in a lousy AL West, but they’re now 1.5 games behind the Astros. The Rangers are mediocrity personified — so, they’re a typical 2026 American League team.

The Rangers couldn’t decide whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline and ended up standing pat, other than acquiring ex-Angels reliever Chase Silseth. They could have used some more help if they plan on making a postseason push. Texas is basically a middle-of-the-pack team both in hitting and pitching.

Offensively, the Rangers are getting contributions from several guys, including Wyatt Langford and longtime Met Brandon Nimmo. Veteran Joc Pederson, who had an atrocious debut season with the Rangers a year ago (.181 AVG, .614 OPS), has rebounded in a big way with a team-leading 20 homers and .840 OPS. But a few hitters who were expected to play key roles have disappointed, including Corey Seager and Evan Carter, both of whom were prominent stars for the Rangers’ championship team in 2023.

The Rangers’ rotation, too, has underwhelmed. All of their primary starting pitchers have an ERA+ below 100, indicating they’ve been a tick below average but not disastrous. They’ll use their three best starters in this series. The O’s will not be doing the same. The Rangers’ bullpen, with a 4.31 ERA, is hittable, but it would behoove the Orioles to do their damage before the ninth inning. All-Star lefty Jacob Latz has emerged as a quality closer, posting a 1.94 ERA with 21 saves in 24 chances. He had saved 16 in a row before blowing a lead three days ago.

The Orioles and Rangers are evenly matched opponents, but if the O’s hope to win the series, they’ll need to put up a better offensive performance than the one they just showed against the Angels, MLB’s worst team. They’ve got a chance to make some real noise in the playoff race if they can take care of business in Arlington this weekend.

Game 1: Friday, 8:15 PM, Apple TV+

RHP Shane Baz (4-10, 3.86) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 4.31)

If ever there were a perfect example of how misleading win-loss records can be, Eovaldi has six more victories than Baz despite giving up more runs. The 36-year-old Eovaldi, now in his 15th major league season, is showing signs of age, with his hit rate, HR rate, and WHIP all at their highest levels in four years. His 90 ERA+ is his worst since an injury-plagued 2019 season with Boston. He’s coming off a particularly rough July in which he posted a 5.67 ERA in five starts. Eovaldi faced the Orioles on April 1 and they tagged him for six runs in four innings.

As for Baz, he hasn’t won a game since June 12, but that’s hardly his fault. Baz has held up his end of the bargain, throwing five quality starts since then, but he’s suffered from a criminal lack of run support. In Baz’s last eight starts, the O’s have scored two or fewer runs in six of them. At this point Shane might as well just pick up a bat himself and try to provide his own run support.

This game will air exclusively on Apple TV+, so if you don’t subscribe, enjoy your day off from watching the Orioles.

Game 2: Saturday, 7:15 PM, Fox

RHP Kyle Bradish (7-10, 3.79) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (7-7, 3.96)

In another nationally televised game, this is one dynamite pitching matchup. The Orioles’ newly extended ace goes up against the two-time Cy Young winner in a game where runs might be at a premium.

While deGrom’s ERA+ is just 98, far lower than his career mark of 146, he’s still capable of dominance. There’s a whole lot of red (red is good!) on his Baseball Savant page, and his underlying numbers aren’t much worse than his previous seasons. He’s been fully healthy for two straight years now, a welcome change from his first two seasons in Texas — when he made only nine starts combined — and his injury-riddled Mets career. There was some buzz that the Rangers might field offers for deGrom at the deadline, but the veteran put the kibosh on that by invoking his no-trade clause to stay in Texas.

The Orioles’ Bradish got jobbed by the weather in his last start. He went only three innings against the Phillies on Sunday before an extended rain delay forced him out of the game. He didn’t get a chance to fully redeem himself from his 10-hit, five-run slog in Detroit in his previous outing. This will be Bradish’s first time facing the Rangers since Game 1 of the 2023 Division Series, when they tagged him for two runs in 4.2 innings. Only two hitters from that day’s lineup, Seager and Carter, are currently on the Rangers’ active roster.

Game 3: Sunday, 2:35 PM, MASN

LHP Cade Povich (2-1, 3.91) vs. RHP Kumar Rocker (4-8, 4.08)

I thought the O’s might activate Chris Bassitt from the IL to make this start, but Povich’s solid showing against the Angels on Monday has earned him another chance. Povich, in his first major league outing in almost three months, blanked the Angels over six innings despite giving up seven hits. A better offensive team might have made him pay for all that traffic on the basepaths, but Cade deserves credit anyway. Povich’s first major league win came against the Rangers on June 29, 2024, and he hasn’t faced them since.

A fellow 26-year-old, Rocker, will take on Povich. The former Vanderbilt standout was famously a top-10 draft pick in two consecutive years, failing to reach an agreement with the Mets when they selected him 10th overall in 2021, then getting picked third by the Rangers the following season. After a brutal introduction to the majors last season, Rocker is starting to live up to his potential this year, serving as a capable back-end starter. The big right-hander’s best pitch is his slider, which has held hitters to a .171 AVG and a .268 SLG. The only current Oriole who has ever faced him is Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who is 0-for-2.

**

What do you expect from the Orioles in this series, Camden Chatters? Let us know in the comments.

Hello folks and happy Friday!

The Mariners had a not-happy Thursday, dropping the series finale to the Tigers 11-0 yesterday.

Importantly, don’t forget that after today’s game with the Rays is the Mariners Alumni Home Run Derby, available to stream for free! Who is your pick to win the contest?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, Major League Baseball issued Gabe Speier a three-game suspension for his role in the bases-clearing incident between the M’s and Tigers on Wednesday night.
• Everett AquaSox catcher Luke Stevenson was named the Northwest League Player of the Month.
• Adam Jude at The Seattle Times provided the latest updates on Carlos Vargas’ rehab progression. ($)

Around the league…

• Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas underwent wrist surgery yesterday. He has an unclear timetable for return.
• Twins right-hander Joe Ryan is likely headed to the injured list after an MRI revealed a mild left glute strain.
• Longtime Giants broadcaster Mike Krukow announced that he will retire at the end of the season.
• Former MLB players Nick Swisher and Adrían González will take on cricket stars in Mumbai this fall in a hybrid contest that merges the skillsets of both sports.
• Tania Ganguli at The New York Times wrote about how the election of Pope Leo XIV shifted the vibes in the south side of Chicago and resurrected the White Sox.

He’s the son of baseball royalty.    His father would play twenty seasons, capture eight batting titles and lead the Padres to a pair of World Series appearances.    Tony Gwynn Jr. joins us today exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes to preview the Astros upcoming series in San Diego.    Gwynn serves as color commentator for Padres baseball.   

Q: Do you personally relate to a guy like Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s also following in his dad’s footsteps with his baseball career?   

A: In some ways yes and some ways no.  We both grew up following the path of our fathers, so from that standpoint, I definitely can relate. The pressures of following a Hall of Fame father are tough no doubt.  That being said, I would say that having the responsibility of being the savior of an organization and having to live up to those expectations or something I never had to do.

Q: Is Tatis the future of Padres baseball?  

A: I believe Tatis is the future of this organization.  I think Jackson Merrill’s right behind him. Those two guys will lead this organization when Manny Machado’s time is done.

Q: Your dad never struck out more than 40 times in a season.    All these years later, he has so many stats, but that one is just crazy to think about.  Which of his numbers do you feel is indicative of his legacy? 

A: Yeah, my pops accumulated some crazy numbers in his career.  My favorite is he could go basically 1000 at bats without a hit and still be a lifetime .300 hitter.    That’s what hitting .338 for a career can do!

Q: How good is Mason Miller’s stuff?   Give Astros fans an idea of what he’s doing closing out games.  

A: Mason Miller is having a tremendous year.  He was 26 of 26 before blowing the save last Friday.   In that game the Padres asked him for five outs.  Outside of that one instance, he’s been flawless.  You’re looking at 103 mph fastball, but his equalizer is the slider which is probably one of the toughest pitches to hit baseball.

Q: We saw Jeremiah Estrada activated from the IL.    How crucial will he be for this club to remain in the thick of the wild card race the final several weeks of the season?      

A: Jeremiah will be extremely crucial down the stretch as will getting Jason Adam back sometime in September.  The padres expect to get David Morgan back before the end of the year as well.  All three of these guys will factor into this bullpen and will be a huge help once they get healthy.

Q: Craig Stammen took over in November.    What grade would you give him in his first regular season at the helm?  

A: I would give Craig Stammen a B grade.   If he had his players perform better in the first half, this grade would probably be higher.  I think as a first-year manager, no matter who it is, there’s going to be some misses along the way.  Despite this team not performing well offensively and having a ton of injuries to rotation and the bullpen, he’s helped keep this team close in the wildcard standings and they’ve started to play a lot better.

Good morning A’s fans. Happy Friday!

This week has not been kind to the Athletics, as going on the road did little to cure the team’s inability to win. They kicked off this road trip by dropping all three games against the Cincinnati Reds. Now, the deflated and demoralized squad begins a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox tonight, a matchup between two teams heading in completely opposite directions.

On June 19, the A’s were 38-38. Since then, they’ve gone 7-32. That’s 6 games worse than anyone else in MLB during that stretch. Manager Mark Kotsay’s squad has also lost 12 straight series for the first time in 110 years, un unfathomable yet not surprising feat given the losing culture that has permeated this franchise since Kotsay took the helm. It is hard to determine if the baseball gods are real, but one has to wonder if all this losing is some sort of curse or punishment for the A’s leaving their devoted, passionate Oakland fanbase behind.

Nevada politician Steve Yeager notably said that “Vegas doesn’t tolerate losers” while discussing the Athletics’ relocation to that city. Well, unless something changes before 2028, Las Vegas may be getting exactly that when the A’s bring their brand of baseball to Southern Nevada.

Given this extended stretch of losing, it seems unlikely that Kotsay will be managing the A’s when they open their brand-new stadium. Heck, he should not make it beyond this season, as this will mark his fifth straight losing campaign.

The best thing the A’s can do right now is play spoiler against teams still in the playoff race. That begins this weekend. Right-handers Jack Perkins and J.T. Ginn will start the series opener and finale at Fenway Park, with left-hander Gage Jump in between. The Red Sox will counter with left-handers Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett, followed by a bullpen game in the series finale.

Will the Athletics snap out of this extended funk and bring the Red Sox back down to Earth, or will they suffer a 13th straight series loss? What are you hoping to see from the Green and Gold for the remainder of this season?

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Misery Continues in 6-5 Loss to Reds
• A’s Losing Streak Continues with 3-2 loss to Reds
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• A’s roster moves: Kurtz & Springs to IL, Ginn activated, Muncy recalled
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• A’s Top Prospect Jamie Arnold Sets Career High in One of His Best Double-A Starts
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season
• A’s Late Comeback Not Enough in 8-6 Loss to Tigers
• Signs Of Hope And Signs Of Hopeless
• Athletics prospect Ryan Lasko says feeling in his legs returning
• Cuban’s investment group purchases minority stake in Athletics
• Chan Ho Park joins A’s group; 1st Korean to buy stake in MLB club
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice

MLB News and Interest:

• Iconic Giants voice Mike Krukow announces retirement at end of season
• Rushing (partial UCL tear) unlikely to catch in ‘26; could return as bench bat
• Pirates To Release Marcell Ozuna
• 2026 Top 100 MLB Prospects
• Blue Jays Place Trey Yesavage On Injured List
• Mariners reliever Speier suspended three games, Wilson one
• Jefry Yan has high-flying celebration after striking out 1st batter
• Sources: Freddy Peralta initiated sitdown between Mets’ Soto and Lindor
• Latest Rookie of the Year poll features a TIE atop the National League
• How To Acquire Players After The MLB Trade Deadline
• Trade Deadline poll: Best deals, biggest surprises, more
• Luke Raley Expected To Miss Remainder Of 2026 Season
• Power Rankings, post-Trade Deadline edition
• Sho-starter! Ohtani closer to Dodgers history with 29th leadoff blast
• White Sox Designate Austin Hays For Assignment
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Worth a listen if you want to get a sense of how some of the A’s top minor league hitting prospects are doing.

This Reds fan’s opinion seems appropriate, given how poorly the A’s have played over the past couple of months.

A’s top pitching prospect Jamie Arnold seems to be figuring things out at Double-A, if his start earlier this week was any indication.

Hi there!

As you know, Thomas Smith is away on vacation.

To keep this feature going, I’m going to post simply the WPA numbers and plays of the game, and a poll so you can vote on your choice for Player of the Game. Thomas will update the Rizzo Award standings when he returns.

Game 116, Aug. 6: Cubs 3, Blue Jays 2

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.453). 2-4, 2B, 2-run HR
• Hero/Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar/Trent Thornton (.312). 1 scoreless IP each

It should be obvious to everyone that Bregman’s homer changed the win probability big time — just look at the WPA chart! The Jays were at a 95 percent chance of winning when Bregman came to bat.

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.274). 0-4, 2 K
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.175). 0-4, K
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.169). 0-4, K

WPA Play of the Game: Isn’t it obvious? Alex Bregman’s two-run game-tying homer with two out in the ninth (.488).

Blue Jays Play of the Game: Alejandro Kirk’s RBI single in the seventh (.122).

Up next: The Cubs begin a six-game road trip in Kansas City. Kevin Gausman will make his Cubs debut. The Royals will go with a bullpen game, with left-handed reliever Daniel Lynch IV the opener.

The Cubs have won four straight and this trip would be a great time to keep stacking wins.

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The Chicago Cubs are -170 moneyline favorites in Kevin Gausman's first start for the team when they visit the Kansas City Royals.

Paired with a red-hot offense, I see some value in backing Chicago as heavy favorites with my Cubs vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Cubs vs Royals today: Chicago Cubs (-170)

Kevin Gausman’s2.27 FIP over the past 30 days indicates he has pitched much better than the 4.71 ERA, and the tide should start to turn in his Chicago Cubs debut.

He is limiting hard contact well, and hasn’t allowed a homer over 21 innings during that span. Gausman’s well-equipped to limit power against the Kansas City Royals, who only rank 25th in homers this season.

The Cubs are a distant first in OPS and wOBA vs. lefties the last month, and should cause problems for Daniel Lynch in his debut start of the season.

Bet to -182.

COVERS INTEL: Gausman ranks in the 95th percentile in fastball run value, and the Royals have only hit .238 against that pitch the past 10 games.

Cubs vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (+100)

I’ve talked about Gausman’s power prevention, and his ability to limit walks should help him keep traffic off the basepaths against a Royals team that can really run.

Chicago’s bullpen – although a little taxed – also sits 11th in xFIP the past 30 days. The Cubs are set up well to limit runs throughout this game.

I do project the Cubs for 5.2 runs against Lynch and a struggling batch of relievers, but my model still sees this game going Under the number.

I would play this to -114.

Cubs vs Royals weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s with small winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.

Cubs vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -170 | Royals +145
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (-105) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)

Cubs vs Royals trend

Kansas City has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of the last 15 games (+7.85 units, 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Royals.

How to watch Cubs vs Royals and game info

Cubs vs Royals latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Before the trade deadline, I asked who the Red Sox shortstop would be in the month of September. Nine days later, we only have a slightly clearer idea of that answer. Andruw Monasterio is hardly a wizard with the glove, but he has put up an OPS above .900 over the last 13 games, all of which he’s started. But Franklin Arias is tearing it up in his introduction to AAA and Trevor Story is said to be close to starting a rehab assignment. So who is it going to be? “Physical gifts and tools wise, you can watch Franklin and feel like this guy’s going to play in the big leagues. But you never know,” Chad tracy said of Arias. “The best thing you could do is [ask], does he have the physical skills to do it? And do you like the character and the mental capacity and the ability to overcome things when they aren’t going right? Those are two big ones. By all intents and purposes, from what I know about the kid, he’s got those skills.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

If you’re a believer in momentum, then the answer to the shortstop question is don’t mess with what’s working and keep Monasterio where he is. But the history of Major League Baseball suggests that momentum doesn’t exist — that’s the underlying message of the whole “momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher” thing we’ve been hearing forever. But in light of how this season has played out, it’s hard not to rethink things. “As it turns out, baseball streaks tend to be somewhat self-sustaining. A Globe analysis of Retrosheet data that includes the outcome of every MLB game from 1901 through 2025 revealed a striking pattern: The longer a winning streak lasts, the higher a team’s winning percentage in the next game.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Garrett Crochet has missed this entire run, of course. And while he’s finally started throwing baseballs again, he has likely run out of time to complete a full rehab that would see him return as a starter. So will he come back in a relief capacity? “If he’s healthy and right, and he looks like Garrett Crochet, I think we’d be foolish not to consider that,” said Chad Tracy. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

If Crochet does join the bullpen, Crochet will find himself alongside some of the best relievers in baseball, a list that no longer just includes Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, but Brayan Bello now as well. (Colin Kennedy, 98.5)

And when he comes back, hopefully he’ll be throwing to a completely healthy Adley Rutschman, who looked good on the field before last night’s game:

Regardless of what happens with Crochet, this season has already been one of the most improbable campaigns in Red Sox history. And it may end with one of the most improbable Manager of the Year awards in MLB history. (Matt Vautour, MassLive)

The Nats playoff dreams got buried this week with a 1-7 road trip against the Braves and Phillies. These veteran laden squads taught the young Nats a lesson and showed they were not ready yet. In a season where the Nats have taken so many steps in the right direction, winning against divisional foes remains a challenge.

On the season, the Nats have gone 11-24 against NL East foes according to my count. If you take out the last place Mets, the Nats are 7-21. These numbers are why the Nats are not going to be battling for a playoff spot down the stretch. If the Nats did not have such massive issues with the Marlins and did not blow all those leads against the Phillies, we could be in a very different spot.

However, the reality is that the Nats sit here on August 7th with a 56-61 record and have their tail between their legs. The roster is now depleted due to trades and injuries. It also looks like the confidence is starting to waiver. Given the lack of pitching on this roster, this day was likely inevitable, but it is still painful.

This week showed that the Nats still have a long way to go to catch these monsters of the east. You are not going to be a playoff team if you cannot beat teams in your own division. The inability to pitch to these veteran lineups is probably a reason Paul Toboni invested so heavily in pitching at the deadline.

Elite offense makes a team fun, but you need pitching to win championships. This lack of pitching shows up the most against teams that see your arms consistently. Braves and Phillies hitters were just all over Nats pitching this week.

That Braves series was particularly ugly. It just felt like the Braves took the Nats soul that weekend. Even Braves writers were struck at how much they absolutely buried the Nats. They showed this team levels.

As you would expect from a team that has been bad for a long time, teams in the division have feasted on the Nats. However, even last year it was not this bad. In 2025, the Nats went 21-31 against the NL East. The Nats would have to go on a real run to match that number this season.

Heading into 2027, whenever that season starts, a big goal needs to be winning against divisional foes. Teams like the Phillies and Braves in particular are measuring sticks for this team. Back in 2012, we knew that team was legit because they kept beating the Phillies, who had slapped them around for years.

Those Phillies, who feature former Nats extremely prominently will always be the ultimate measuring stick for this team. They are our biggest rival and have ruled the division with the Braves this decade. You cannot beat teams like this if you go 0 for 11 with RISP like the Nats did on Tuesday.

Under the new regime, this team has made a lot of progress. The offense has exploded and there has been so much development. However, this team is not where they need to be yet. It would be unrealistic for the regime to turn everything around in one year. Next year though, this team is going to have to be a lot better against the NL East.

This season has raised expectations moving forward. If the Nats are not in the playoff hunt down the stretch, that will be disappointing. This puts even more pressure on this group to beat the beasts of the east, which they have not shown the ability to do yet. Hopefully that will come as this team gains experience.

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Full slate Friday is here!

Let's get this weekend off and running by diving into my MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

Here are my latest MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.

MLB moneyline picks for August 7

Matchup	Pick
Mets vs Pirates	+125
Blue Jays vs Phillies	-203
Reds vs Nationals	+108
Braves vs Yankees	+135
Angels vs Marlins	-156
A's vs  Red Sox	+245
Guardians vs White Sox	-133
Twins vs Brewers	+170
Cubs vs Royals	-160
Orioles vs Rangers	+135
Rockies vs Cardinals	-156
Astros vs Padres	-115
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks	-167
Rays vs Mariners	+104
Tigers vs Giants	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-7.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 7

Mets vs Pirates: Mets (+125)

Mets win probability: 44%

I like the Mets as a dog, mainly because their offense has been heating up, sporting a 121 wRC+, .339 wOBA and .778 OPS while making a ton of hard contact and barrels over their last six games.

On the other hand, the Pirates have posted a 60 wRC+, .251 wOBA and .534 OPS during that stretch.

Carmen Mlodzinski has been great for the Pirates, but he has allowed nearly 55% hard-hit and almost a 14% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last three outings.

I want the dog!

Blue Jays vs Phillies: Phillies (-203)

Phillies win probability: 67%

From a moneyline standpoint, I hate that I wrote, “take the -203 favorite,” but there is nothing offensively for the Blue Jays that gives me even an ounce of hope here.

Over their last 12 games, they have not made hard contact or barrels, and their wRC+ is below 90. What am I supposed to believe in?

Meanwhile, the Phillies are making hard contact and own a 117 wRC+ and .775 OPS over their last 12 games.

Plus, Zack Wheeler has been phenomenal, while Jose Soriano, who is making his Blue Jays debut, has not been good since May.

Phillies.

Reds vs Nationals: Reds (+108)

Reds win probability: 48%

Question: what is with the Reds having pitchers with country-singer names? Rhett Lowder, now Chase Petty? I hear a dirt road lyric in the distance....

Anywho...

With the sudden coldness from the Nationals’ bats, plus losing James Wood to injury and Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees at the deadline, it is mainly CJ Abrams holding things down. Cade Cavalli has done a great job holding things down across his last few outings, but I can’t back a team that can’t score.

Reds.

Braves vs Yankees: Braves (+135)

Braves win probability: 42%

Do we not think this price is a little nuts?

Tyler Mahle has been solid in his last few outings, posting a 3.17 xERA over his last five starts and a 3.16 xERA over his last three. Max Fried makes the Yankees a -138 favorite? I’m good.

The Braves’ bats have been on fire as of late, while the Yankees can seemingly only score via the home run. Yeah, that’s one of the most sustainable ways to score. (Sarcasm.)

Angels vs Marlins: Marlins (-156)

Marlins win probability: 61%

I am not in love with paying this much juice for a lineup that has been pretty chilly as of late, but the Angels’ bats have been far colder.

Plus, Tyler Phillips has looked far better over his last five outings than George Klassen, who owns a 13.50 ERA over his last three starts while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.

I will happily take the fighting fish!

A's vs Red Sox: Athletics (+245)

Athletics win probability: 29%

The Boston Red Sox are easily the hottest team in baseball, coming off back-to-back sweeps against the Dodgers and White Sox. They needed extra innings to take down the White Sox on Thursday night, and I think continuing to back them as such a heavy favorite is silly.

Especially at -251. Should they really be this heavy of a favorite tonight? I don’t think so.

Yes, the Athletics’ offense has been a no-show as of late, but Jack Perkins has maintained a 3.61 xERA on the road this season. He also does not give up much hard contact or barrels.

For the price, I think it has to be the cityless Athletics.

Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-133)

Guardians win probability: 57%

Simply leaning with the better pitching in this spot, with both offenses being pretty lifeless. The White Sox are coming off a big loss to the Red Sox last night, while both teams are coming off getting swept.

Left-hander Parker Messick owns a sub-3.00 road ERA and a 1.46 ERA over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Noah Schultz has a 5.73 ERA over his last five.

I am out on the White Sox this evening.

Twins vs Brewers: Twins (+170)

Twins win probability: 37%

Trusting Zebby Matthews was not on my bingo card this morning, but here we are.

I’ll keep it simple. I am not paying near -180 for the Brewers here when their offense is cold. Sure, Shane Drohan has been lights out, but I just do not like the price.

Twins.

Cubs vs Royals: Cubs (-160)

Cubs win probability: 62%

Cubs or nothing here.

Mason Black has been horrendous over his last five outings and owns a 9.73 xERA on the road this season. The Royals are back to a wRC+ below 90 over their last 12 games, while the Cubs are absolutely scorching hot.

Pay the juice. Cubs or nothing.

Orioles vs Rangers: Orioles (+135)

Orioles win probability: 42%

Given how poorly Nathan Eovaldi has pitched over his last five starts, sporting a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, I want to trust the Orioles as underdogs on Friday evening.

Meanwhile, Shane Baz owns a 2.63 ERA over his last five starts. Both offenses have been pretty lifeless, so this feels like a spot to lean into the arm that has been performing at a higher level lately.

Rockies vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-156)

Cardinals win probability: 61%

I will make this one easy.

Ryan Feltner owns an 8.75 ERA, 5.18 xERA and 1.94 WHIP over his last five starts. Over their last 12 games, the Rockies have a sub-90 wRC+, 3.2% barrel rate and 25% strikeout rate.

On the other side, Kyle Leahy has been shoving, posting a 1.38 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts.

I do not care how much the Cardinals’ offense has been underperforming; Feltner will wake those bats.

Astros vs Padres: Padres (-115)

Padres win probability: 54%

Ronel Blanco could get shelled in this spot tonight against the Padres. The right-hander has yet to put together a solid start this season, and with how hot the Padres’ bats have been, I think they get to him early.

On the other side, Robbie Ray has been lights out, posting a 2.00 ERA over his last five outings.

I like San Diego here.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks: Dodgers (-167)

Dodgers win probability: 62%

As wild as it is to type this, is there another team in baseball that needs a win more than the Dodgers?

They have been swept in back-to-back series and now draw Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks.

With it being Merrill Kelly, who owns a 7.23 xERA at home this season, and Roki Sasaki having far better numbers across his last three starts, I trust the Dodgers here.

Rays vs Mariners: Rays (+104)

Rays win probability: 49%

Simple.

I will not touch the Mariners until I see their team wRC+ climb back above 100. It has been sitting below 100 for over a month, and I want no part of this lifeless offense.

On the other side, you have one of the most consistent teams in baseball, and you are giving me them at plus money?

Rays, PLEASE!

Tigers vs Giants: Tigers (-122)

Tigers win probability: 55%

The Giants’ offense since the deadline has mainly been Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee. The team owns an 80 wRC+, .277 wOBA, and .615 OPS over their last six games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have posted a 172 wRC+, .414 wOBA, and .947 OPS during that stretch. They are on fire!

Keider Montero has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.11 ERA, 3.08 xERA and 0.70 WHIP.

I want to be on the Tigers tonight on the road!

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The San Diego Padres took a business-like approach to their final game against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night. The end result was a 5-1 win that allowed the Padres to earn a series split and remain one game behind the Diamondbacks in the chase for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. There are still a lot of games to be played, but San Diego manager Craig Stammen treated this game like a must-win.

Walker Buehler got the start on the mound for the Padres and was not overly dominant, but he did enough to hold the Diamondbacks to one run on six hits with one walk and three strikeouts over four innings. San Diego gave him a lead with a run in the first and two in the third and that was all the Padres would need.

Buehler departed the game and Bradgley Rodriguez took over. He worked two scoreless innings without allowing a hit or a walk and recorded a strikeout. That allowed Jeremiah Estrada to work a scoreless seventh inning, Adrian Morejon to work a scoreless eighth inning and Mason Miller to close out the game in the ninth inning despite it not being a save situation.

San Diego tacked on a run in the sixth and one in the seventh. What was notable about the way the Padres scored their runs was how they did it. The first run scored on a double play groundout and the second also scored on a ground out. Ty France hit a sacrifice fly to bring home the third run. Freddy Fermin recorded the first hit to score a run with a single in the sixth and Jackson Merrill did the same with a single in the seventh.

The Padres return home today to host the Houston Astros to open a three-game series at Petco Park. Robbie Ray is scheduled to make his first start for San Diego at 6:40 p.m. The Trade Deadline acquisition will look to make a better first impression with the club than Casey Mize did against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

Padres News:

• The Padres made three additions at the Trade Deadline and with the game tonight, the Friar Faithful will have had an opportunity to see all three perform in a San Diego uniform. There was a ton of speculation about what the Padres could, would and should do. With the deadline passed and moves made, how do you feel?

• David Morgan is still working through his rehab progression in an attempt to rejoin the San Diego bullpen.

• Nick Pivetta will have his rehab paused to have his elbow reevaluated after feeling tightness in his first rehab outing.

Baseball News:

• The Boston Red Sox refused to lose and won their eighth straight game.

• The Atlanta Braves continued their winning ways and extended their win streak to eight games.

• The Chicago Cubs topped the Toronto Blue Jays, 3-2 in 11 innings.

• Dustin May made his first start with the Milwaukee Brewers and led them to a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• The Philadelphia Philles topped the Washington Nationals, 7-3.

• The Cincinnati Reds earned their first home sweep of the season with a win over the Athletics.

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A Hollywood, Florida bettor has turned an incredible stroke of luck into an improbable payout fit for the big screen.

Key Takeaways

• A Florida bettor turned a $15, 15-leg MLB parlay into a $149,477 payout after correctly picking every game on Tuesday's slate.
  
  
• The ticket included 14 moneyline picks and one runline bet, with upsets by the Mets, Cubs, and Tigers among the biggest results.
  
  
• The Rays' extra-inning comeback over the Rockies proved to be the bettor's closest call before the parlay was completed.

An unnamed bettor in the Sunshine State has won $149,477 thanks to a remarkable 15-leg parlay of MLB games across baseball’s Tuesday slate, nailing every single pick and returning nearly 10,000 times his mere $15 wager.

Per Hard Rock Bet, the sportsbook where the unidentified individual placed the parlay, the customer locked in his bets in the early hours of the morning at 6:35 a.m., putting together a parlay of 14 moneyline bets and one run line bet. 

Yesterday, a Florida bettor correctly parlayed ALL 15 games on the MLB slate...

The result? Almost 150K on a $15 dollar wager. 🤯 https://t.co/9wyHEHtfHwpic.twitter.com/YUMWylcz1s

— Hard Rock Bet (@HardRockBet) August 5, 2026

The full ticket included:

• Kansas City Royals +1.5 -125 (vs. Minnesota Twins)
• New York Yankees -165 (vs. St. Louis Cardinals)
• Cincinnati Reds -130 (vs. Athletics)
• Texas Rangers -185 (vs. San Francisco Giants)
• Philadelphia Phillies -230 (vs. Washington Nationals)
• Boston Red Sox -125 (vs. Chicago White Sox)
• Atlanta Braves -150 (vs. Miami Marlins)
• Houston Astros -125 (vs. Toronto Blue Jays)
• Milwaukee Brewers -155 (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates)
• Detroit Tigers +125 (vs. Seattle Mariners)
• Tampa Bay Rays -135 (vs Colorado Rockies)
• Mets +135 (vs. Cleveland Guardians)
• San Diego Padres +120 (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks)
• Chicago Cubs +190 (vs. Dodgers)
• Baltimore Orioles -145 (vs. Angels)

How the bettor won big

The bettor’s day started strong thanks to an Orioles win over the Angels; however, it didn’t take long for things to start falling in the Hollywood-native’s favor. 

In just the second game of the evening, the lowly New York Mets, who had sold off at the MLB trade deadline mere days before, upset the Cleveland Guardians 6-2 thanks to a trio of Mets home runs, including just the fourth of the year from Luis Torrens in the second inning to help New York out to a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The bettor’s next big stunner and perhaps most shrewd pick came thanks to the Chicago Cubs, facing newly acquired Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal in his debut in Dodger Blue following a blockbuster trade over the weekend. Despite the southpaw’s six punchouts, the Cubs mustered enough offense and shut down the L.A. bats in a massive 5-1 upset as home underdogs.

“You’ve got to kind of pick pitches at times,” Cubs skipper Craig Counsell said of facing Skubal. “With the great ones, that’s what you have to do. You have to pick pitches. We did a good job kind of creating a couple other scoring opportunities. That’s how you have to beat guys like that.”

The bettor’s' biggest scare, meanwhile, came from the ballclub just across the I-75 in the Tampa Bay Rays. On a day defined by good fortune for Florida sports betting, however, perhaps the Rays took inspiration, erasing a late deficit with a two-run ninth inning to force extra innings before knocking off the Colorado Rockies on the road in the 11th inning.

Tied in nine! pic.twitter.com/lY2JSNjztP

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) August 5, 2026

From there, it was smooth sailing until Detroit Tigers reliever Yilber Díaz slammed the door on the Seattle Mariners on their own home field in an 8-0 rout to conclude the day’s games and make the bettor a very wealthy man.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.