When Brewers fans talk about the bullpen, names like Trevor Megill or Abner Uribe usually dominate the conversation. That makes sense. Closers and flamethrowers tend to get the attention. But one of the most important arms in Milwaukee’s bullpen is not the one finishing games or lighting up the radar gun. It is Jared Koenig, a pitcher whose value lies in how often he keeps games from getting away in the first place.
Koenig is not flashy, and he does not fit the archetype of the modern reliever who racks up saves or piles up strikeouts in highlight clips. His stat line — 2.67 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 131 Ks, 128 IP over 127 appearances in 2024 & 2025 — doesn’t blow you away either.
What he does instead is quietly stabilize games. Over the course of the last two seasons with Milwaukee, he has taken on a steady diet of meaningful innings and turned them into outs with remarkable consistency. That kind of contribution rarely drives headlines, but it often determines whether a team survives the grind of 162 games.
His path to this role makes his emergence even more notable. Koenig was drafted in the 35th round in 2014 and spent years bouncing around independent leagues, including stops overseas, simply trying to keep his career alive. There was no fast track, no top-prospect pedigree, and no guarantee he would ever see sustained major league time. That background usually leads to a brief appearance in the majors, not a dependable role on a contending roster. Yet Koenig has carved out exactly that.
The Brewers have built much of their recent success on finding value where others do not, particularly with pitching. Koenig fits neatly into that organizational identity. He commands the strike zone, limits free passes, and misses enough bats to escape trouble. As a left-hander, he provides matchup flexibility, but he is far more than a situational specialist. Milwaukee has shown a willingness to deploy him against a wide range of hitters and in a variety of leverage spots, which signals genuine trust rather than simple necessity.
What makes Koenig especially important is the role he plays in the middle innings. Not every game is decided in the ninth, and many are won or lost in the sixth or seventh, when a starter exits and the opposing lineup turns over again. Koenig has been one of the Brewers’ most reliable options in those moments. He does not just bridge innings. He prevents momentum from swinging. When he enters with runners on base or a slim lead, the game often slows down.
That reliability matters even more for a roster built on depth and flexibility. Milwaukee rarely leans on a single dominant bullpen arm for long stretches. Instead, responsibility is spread across multiple relievers, with roles shifting as performance ebbs and flows. Koenig’s ability to absorb innings without drama allows the Brewers to protect their higher-octane arms and avoid overexposing younger or less consistent relievers. Over a long season, that kind of workload management can be the difference between a bullpen holding together in September and October or unraveling.
There is also reason to believe Koenig’s performance is not a fluke. He showed signs of breaking out last season, and rather than regressing, he has built on that success. That kind of year-to-year stability is rare for relievers, whose results are often driven by small-sample volatility. Koenig’s continued effectiveness points to a skill set that is more repeatable than random.
Pitchers like Koenig are easy to overlook because they do not fit neatly into traditional narratives. They do not close games, do not collect awards, and do not dominate trade deadline discourse. But teams that consistently reach October almost always have several players like him. They are not stars, but they are indispensable. They turn close games into wins and prevent losing streaks from spiraling.
If the Brewers are going to sustain success and push deeper into the postseason, they will need contributions beyond the obvious names. Koenig represents the kind of hidden value that has defined Milwaukee’s approach for years. He is not the most exciting Brewer, but he may be one of the most important.
We have hit the lull in between the hot stove league and Spring Training. There will be more deals made between now and then, but your Houston Astros are probably winding down their additions and changes. This affords us time to dive into some side conversations that could prove interesting. Last week, the BBWAA elected former Astro Carlos Beltran into the Baseball Hall of Fame along with Andruw Jones. This year’s induction ceremony will feature two former Astros.
The Hall of Fame index is a systemic way to look at Hall of Fame fitness, but like most methods it needs context and counterbalances to be meaningful. The index combines baseball-reference WAR and Fangraphs WAR into one number. It is similar to JAWS in that it combines career value and peak value for one tidy number. The number itself is only relevant if we compare it to other players at the same position. Since Beltran spent much of his career as a center fielder, we will compare him with the four players closest to him in the index.
We will look at the index itself, but we will also look at offensive metrics, fielding metrics, overall metrics, and a deeper dive into WAR to see how those wins were parceled out. We do that because some people are not big on WAR and WAR itself has its own secret sauce which is difficult to understand for many fans. We want to look at its components so that it makes more sense. We will start with the index itself.
The Hall of Fame Index
BWAR
FWAR
BWAR10
FWAR10
Index
Billy Hamilton
63.2
70.3
55.8
61.0
250.3
Carlos Beltran
70.1
67.8
54.8
56.2
248.9
Andruw Jones
62.7
67.0
57.9
61.0
248.6
Duke Snider
65.9
63.5
60.0
56.1
245.5
Jim Edmonds
61.4
64.5
55.0
58.4
239.3
There are two important parts of the index that make it different from JAWS. The first thing is the addition of FWAR. is the first major difference. Different WAR formulas look at performance slightly differently and including both of those gives us a richer view of the player. Fielding seems to be most significant difference, but there are some differences on the offensive end as well. The second major difference is a ten year peak versus a seven year peak. The additional three seasons adds key data, but the biggest reason is that it takes ten seasons to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, so it felt appropriate to make the peak ten seasons.
The key is how we interpret the index. It is not meant to rank order players. It is meant to measure fitness. Beltran is not necessarily better than Jones. They are virtually similar in terms of value. Furthermore, all of these players are similar in value. It is more accurately used like Bill James’ similarity scores. If a player is similar to others that are universally seen as Hall of Famers then they are probably a Hall of Famer. If they are similar to players that are not seen as Hall of Famers then their case is a little more shaky.
We look at the other numbers (offense, fielding, and durability numbers) to provide more context and determine how WAR was arrived at. On the offensive end, we are using OPS+ which compares players with the league at the time. 100 is considered to be average with most of these players coming above that. We also include offensive winning percentage which assumes a regular lineup of nine players identical to him with average pitching. We will also use real offensive value and bases per out that I have used in previous articles. Real offensive value combines batting average and secondary average. Bases per out combines total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and divides that by total outs.
Offensive Numbers
OPS+
ROV
OW%
BPO
Billy Hamilton
141
.384
.731
1.178
Carlos Beltran
119
.312
.612
.835
Andruw Jones
111
.308
.554
.806
Duke Snider
140
.339
.707
.923
Jim Edmonds
132
.337
.659
.917
Offensive winning percentage is one of my favorite metrics. Imagine a team that has a .731 winning percentage. it is staggering. Hamilton’s numbers are just stupid. A part of the problem with 19th century players is that some of the data is unavailable. So, his numbers are relevant in comparison with his contemporaries, but not as relevant in comparison with these guys. However, that BPO is ridiculously good. He combined high average, on base skills, and speed to enormous value.
The biggest takeaway here is that Edmonds looks a lot better than we thought he would and I imagine better than most of the voters thought. In comparison, Jones and Beltran look a little more ordinary. Of course, hitting is not the only part of value. No single test qualifies or disqualifies a player. We take them all in concert to get an overall look at a player. This is why numerous statisticians like stats like WAR. It aims to include everything a player does into one tidy number. I include all of the components because WAR is not universally recognized as a valuable tool.
In terms of fielding we are looking at Rfield from baseball-reference.com. It is closely correlated to defensive runs saved, but obviously predates that for most of these players. DWAR and FG are similar numbers that measure a player against the replacement level fielder. In this case, it is an overall look at the baseball universe, so certain positions are assumed to be more valuable than others. Some of these players played other positions than center field, so their DWAR and FG will be affected. However, the differences between DWAR and FG can help explain the differences between BWAR and FWAR. In the last category we simply look at the Rfield for just center field.
Fielding
Rfield
DWAR
FG
CF
Billy Hamilton
30
-5.2
-5.0
30
Carlos Beltran
39
2.0
0.4
33
Andruw Jones
235
24.4
27.9
253
Duke Snider
-22
-5.9
-4.6
-21
Jim Edmonds
37
6.4
7.3
48
I don’t think it is hypebole to say that Jones is the most valuable defensive center fielder in the game’s history. He surpasses Willie Mays in Rfield and DWAR. Obviously, all rating systems include some level of subjectivity. However, Jones performance here helps explain where his value comes from. When you include off the charts defensive value with good offensive value you get a compelling case for the Hall of Fame.
When we remove Snider, we see that the other three are pretty similar in value. Hamilton’s DWAR and FG lag behind largely because of the era. Other positions were considerably more valuable and most of those came on the infield. It was likely the nature of the game itself which was what historians would call “inside baseball”. If homers are depressed then players will focus on line drives and ground balls. That puts more of a premium on infield defense.
In Beltran’s case, we see overall good defensive value and offensive value. When you are good at both then you are very good overall. The last leg of the value puzzle is longevity. We use Bill James’ total runs formula to calculate that. We add runs created, fielding runs, base running runs, and a positional adjustment to come up with total runs.
Total Runs
RC
Rfield
Rbaser
Rpos
TR
Billy Hamilton
1225
30
53
-86
1222
Carlos Beltran
1731
39
55
-15
1810
Andruw Jones
1255
235
9
16
1515
Duke Snider
1475
-22
13
-26
1440
Jim Edmonds
1408
37
-11
31
1465
This is the missing piece. Beltran doesn’t look overwhelming when we look at the offensive and fielding value numbers, but these numbers are staggering. If a good player adds 100 total runs a season then he has three seasons worth of production over all of these players. It helps explain how Hamilton could be so good in the value numbers, but similar in overall value to the other four.
When we combine these three tests we get a pretty clear picture of these five players. However, we have one more test to go. In this case, we are looking at BWAR seasons to determine how often they were among the league’s best. It isn’t always universal, but five WAR seasons make you among the league’s best. Four win seasons are usually all-star campaigns. Solid regulars get three WAR. Additionally, we will note how often each player led the league in BWAR.
BWAR Seasons
5 WAR
4 WAR
3 WAR
MVP
Billy Hamilton
6
4
0
2
Carlos Beltran
6
3
2
0
Andruw Jones
6
2
2
0
Duke Snider
7
1
1
2
Jim Edmonds
7
2
1
0
A lack of leading the league does not make someone unfit for the Hall of Fame. Obviously, the reverse is also true. However, it does add needed context to a career. Players can accumulate WAR over 20 seasons or 12. This table helps illustrate that. Most baseball fans are captivated by greatness. In many ways, that is the deciding factor when looking at a borderline Hall of Famer. How often were they great?
Each of these players end up being pretty close in that regard. I’d say the biggest takeaway is that Beltran overwhelmed through longevity, Jones overwhelmed with defense, and Jim Edmonds has gotten the shaft to date. He should be next in line.
The Pistons may have dropped a tight contest against a strong Houston Rockets team, but they are still sitting alone at the top of the Eastern Conference. With the trade deadline right around the corner, Wes and Blake break down that loss to the Rockets and what it might mean for the playoffs to come. How should the team counter the Rockets’ defensive strategy? How often will Cade see that defense? They also dive into a mock trade deadline that Wes was fortunate enough to participate in, hosted by the Bird Rights Podcast. What trades were these fake Pistons able to make? What do we think about the value of those deals and how the roster fits together in that scenario? Finally, the guys answer the big question… would this team be better with Malik Beasley than they are with Duncan Robinson?
We’ve got you covered for all this and more in this week’s episode!
Want to hear your voice on the Pindown? Call (313) 355-2717 and leave your question as a voicemail! The guys will play your message and answer your question on that week’s episode! All we ask is that you keep your questions to under 45 seconds.
The Mets have one of the best farm systems in baseball -- even after trading two of their top prospects in the Freddy Peralta deal -- and they're well-represented on The Athletic's new top 100 prospects list ahead of the 2026 season.
Law heralds McLean as someone who could be a top-of-the-rotation starter, and writes that Benge could end up being an above-average defender in center field.
Regarding Tong, Law says he has the upside of a No. 2 starter.
As far as Ewing, Law notes that he could profile as a regular in center field, adding that there's a chance he becomes a star "if he lifts the ball a little more to get to more home run power."
McLean dazzled in 48.0 innings over eight starts during his big league debut last season, posting a 2.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 57 batters. He is expected to slot near the top of the 2026 rotation.
The other two prospects on the list could open 2026 in the minors.
Tong showed flashes during his first taste of the majors in 2025, but his arsenal can use some refining.
As far as Ewing, he had a breakout season in 2025, slashing .315/.401/.429 (.830 OPS) across three levels, ending with Double-A Binghamton. The speedy Ewing smacked 10 triples and 26 doubles while swiping 70 bases.
Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, the prospects the Mets traded in the Peralta deal, ranked No. 45 and No. 75, respectively.
The Portland Trail Blazers hit the road this evening to face Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics at the TD Garden.
Shaedon Sharpe is showing out lately, and I’m eyeing him to keep it rolling in my Trail Blazers vs Celtics predictions and NBA picks below.
Trail Blazers vs Celtics prediction
Trail Blazers vs Celtics best bet: Shaedon Sharpe Over 21.5 points (-115)
Shaedon Sharpe showed promise from Day 1 for the Portland Trail Blazers, but he’s really stepped it up in Year 5. The Canadian guard is averaging a career-best 21.9 points across 42 games. Sharpe is one of Portland’s best players, and he continues to prove it on a nightly basis.
The former Kentucky standout has cashed the Over in points in four of his last five appearances, and even though he did cash the Under in his most recent contest, Sharpe still finished with 21 points.
Sharpe is averaging 21.9 ppg on the road, and he already balled out earlier in the campaign against the Boston Celtics, dropping 26 points. Sharpe is playing with boatloads of confidence, and he’ll bring his best again tonight.
Trail Blazers vs Celtics same-game parlay
Payton Pritchard has taken on a bigger role this season without Jayson Tatum around, averaging a career-high 16.7 ppg. He's cashed the Over in two of his last four games and three of his last five at home.
Sam Hauser is a sniper from deep, draining 2.7 triples on 6.6 attempts for a 40.7% clip. The 28-year-old has cashed the Over in five of his last six.
While the Blazers are holding opponents to a 27.6% clip from beyond the arc across their last three games, Hauser is feeling it right now from 3-point territory. He’s averaging exactly 2.5 makes at home as well for a 42% clip.
Trail Blazers vs Celtics SGP
Shaedon Sharpe Over 21.5 points
Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 points
Sam Hauser Over 2.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Over and Out
Jrue Holiday is averaging 7.1 dimes per contest, and he’s cashed the Over in back-to-back outings.
Trail Blazers vs Celtics SGP
Shaedon Sharpe Over 21.5 points
Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 points
Sam Hauser Over 2.5 threes
Jrue Holiday Over 5.5 assists
Trail Blazers vs Celtics odds
Spread: Trail Blazers +8.5 | Celtics -8.5
Moneyline: Trail Blazers +260 | Celtics -330
Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Trail Blazers vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers have won 14 of their last 21 games for +13.25 units and a 49% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Celtics.
How to watch Trail Blazers vs Celtics
Location
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date
Monday, January 26, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Trail Blazers vs Celtics latest injuries
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Pacers vs Hawks best bet: Andrew Nembhard Over 7.5 assists (-112)
Andrew Nembhard has had to take on a larger role in 2025-26 with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined, and while the Indiana Pacers are struggling, he’s played well.
From a playmaking standpoint, the Gonzaga product is averaging an impressive 7.3 assists per game. That ranks eighth in the entire Association.
Nembhard has cashed the Over in dimes in three of his last four appearances, and he just registered 11 assists on Friday evening against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Atlanta Hawks are nowhere near OKC in terms of defense, and they’re Top 10 in most assists allowed. Atlanta is also considered an easier matchup for point guards, allowing 9.24 dimes per contest to the position.
He’ll cook as a facilitator this afternoon.
Pacers vs Hawks same-game parlay
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is having a career year for the Hawks. However, the guard hasn’t been at his best lately, cashing the Under in points in four of his last five.
NAW has scored just 24 points combined across his last two appearances, and he’s cashed the Under in two of his previous three outings on home court as well.
Corey Kispert has given the Hawks more shooting since coming over in the Trae Young trade, and he’s been draining triples lately. The ex-Gonzaga star has cashed the Over in three of his last four appearances.
Pacers vs Hawks SGP
Andrew Nembhard Over 7.5 assists
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 19.5 points
Corey Kispert Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Long ball delivers
Pascal Siakam has cashed the Over in treys in five consecutive appearances, and he’s averaging 2.4 makes on the road.
Pacers vs Hawks SGP
Andrew Nembhard Over 7.5 assists
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 19.5 points
Corey Kispert Over 1.5 threes
Pascal Siakam Over 1.5 threes
Pacers vs Hawks odds
Spread: Pacers +5.5 | Hawks -5.5
Moneyline: Pacers +180 | Hawks -220
Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Pacers vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Indiana Pacers have hit the game total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Hawks.
How to watch Pacers vs Hawks
Location
State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date
Monday, January 26, 2026
Tip-off
1:30 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN-IN, FDSN SE-ATL
Pacers vs Hawks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
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San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove said he is anxious to get back on the mound for his hometown team and a year of good health as he and the Padres look to return to the postseason according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Musgrove spoke at a ribbon-cutting ceremony at San Dieguito Community Park where he and centerfielder Jackson Merrill were in attendance for the re-opening of a ballpark that is used for the Miracle League of San Diego. Musgrove said he wants to have a normal season but understands that the ultimate goal is to pitch in October.
Padres News:
Gaslamp Ball conducted a poll and asked readers which of three free agent pitchers they would prefer the Padres to sign, Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez or Justin Verlander? The three pitchers were named as possible targets for San Diego by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Readers overwhelmingly prefer to see Giolito on the mound for the Padres in 2026.
Baseball News:
MLB.com reported many teams are interested in signing Giolito and the most recent team to express its interest is the Detroit Tigers according to a report from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman.
For about 12 minutes, it looked like the San Antonio Spurs were going to pull off a big comeback against the New Orleans Pelicans. After going down 20 points in the third quarter, the Spurs came all the way back to take a 5-point lead with 5 minutes to go in the game. San Antonio couldn’t sustain the lead as New Orleans came away with a 104-95 upset victory.
The Spurs’ comeback started midway through the third quarter when Mitch Johnson subbed out his five starters for a bench lineup that included rookies Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant. The two first-year players immediately brought energy and helped the team get back in the game. Bryant has looked great in his last few outings. He’s been confident and aggressive in his minutes. Bryant had 6 points on a pair of threes in his 7 minutes.
Harper did what he does best – get downhill and make things happen in the open court. He had 5 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench. They aren’t eye-popping stats, but he provided a real spark when the team needed it.
Harper has caught a few defenders off guard this season with his bounce. At 6-6, he has the size to finish over the top in transition, even if he isn’t a high-flying athlete.
The game was Devin Vassell’s first in a month. He did exactly what you’d expect with 13 points off the bench. Vassell knocked down shots and gave the Spurs another floor-spacer from deep. It’s nice to know that a skip pass to the corner is going to fall into the hands of a shooter like Vassell.
Vassell’s tough shot-making ability will be a huge help for the Spurs as they enter the second half of the season. Vassell knocked down a few contested shots on Sunday night, including this tough mid-range jumper off the baseline out-of-bounds play.
Victor Wembanyama got in on the highlight action despite a relatively quiet night. Wemby had 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 blocks. This poster slam over Derrick Queen was Blake Griffen-esque. Just a big man throwing the ball into the basket through contact.
This sequence included some classic Wembanyama defense. He just had to go straight up against the smaller Yves Missi. He blocks him twice to stop the Pelicans’ big man from a sure layup.
We got a rare Area 51 sighting on Sunday night. It’s been a while since these two have found each other in the half-court, but here Stephon Castle draws two defenders and then finds the big man for the lob.
Next, San Antonio will travel to Houston for a rematch with the Rockets on Wednesday night. Catch the full game highlights from Sunday’s game below.
The Los Angeles Lakers’ extended road trip moves east with a stop in the Windy City to battle the Chicago Bulls tonight.
Deandre Ayton hopes a two-day break can bust his current funk. He’s struggled on both ends of the floor, which has led to him being benched in each of the past two games.
However, Chicago’s soft interior defense could be just what Ayton needs to get back on track. His scoring output is the focus of my Lakers vs. Bulls predictions and NBA picks below.
Lakers vs Bulls prediction
Lakers vs Bulls best bet: Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 points (-120)
Deandre Ayton’s recent struggles have ignited a firestorm of criticism from NBA analysts and basketball fans, but this game against the Chicago Bulls could help get things on track. The Bulls are among the softer defenses in the league, especially when it comes to protecting the interior.
Chicago allows the fifth most points in the paint (53.3) and the seventh-highest points per game to the center position (25.7). The Bulls are undersized around the hoop, topping out with 6-foot-9 center Nikola Vucevic, who has lost a step defensively.
The 7-foot Ayton had scored 12+ points in four straight games and six of his last eight before this current three-game backslide, and averages almost 14 points on the season.
NBA player projections for Monday have Ayton ranging from 11.1 to 15.5, with the majority of models sitting closer to 13 points. My number, given Ayton plays his normal 29 minutes, comes out to 13.6 points against Chicago. That should have the Over 11.5 priced around -170.
Lakers vs Bulls same-game parlay
The Lakers and Bulls aren’t the stingiest teams in the NBA, and Chicago’s up-tempo style will see a faster pace for this game.
LeBron James continues to impact games besides points. He’s dished out 7+ dimes in seven of his last 12 outings.
Lakers vs Bulls SGP
Over 237.5
Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 points
LeBron James Over 6.5 assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Running with the Bulls
Rui Hachimura has started to find his stroke from deep after missing time with injury, including 2+ triples in three of his last four outings.
Lakers vs Bulls SGP
Over 237.5
Deandre Ayton Over 11.5 points
LeBron James Over 6.5 assists
Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 threes
Lakers vs Bulls odds
Spread: Lakers -1.5 (-108) | Bulls +1.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Lakers -115 | Bulls -105
Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Lakers vs Bulls betting trend to know
The Lakers are 7-5 Over/Under in non-conference games while the Bulls are 9-6 O/U against Western Conference foes this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Bulls.
How to watch Lakers vs Bulls
Location
United Center, Chicago, IL
Date
Monday, January 26, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Spectrum SportsNet, CHSN
Lakers vs Bulls latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
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Basketball was played in Minneapolis on Sunday, Jan. 25, but the atmosphere surrounding Golden State's 111-85 victory over Minnesota was unlike any game those in attendance ever experienced.
"I thought the vibe in the stands was one of the most bizarre, sad games I've ever been a part of," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said afterward. "Their team ... We could tell they were struggling with everything that's been going on and what the city has been through. It was very sad. It was a sad night."
Steve Kerr called the arena atmosphere in Minneapolis today one of the most “bizarre, sad” vibes he’s experienced at a game
Before the game, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch fought through tears as he reflected on the city's second deadly interaction between agents and residents this month.
"As an organization, we are heartbroken for what we are having to witness and endure and watch," Finch said. "We just want to extend our thoughts, prayers and concern for Mr. Pretti, (his) family, all the loved ones and everyone involved in such an unconscionable situation in a community that we really love, full of people who are, by nature, peaceful and prideful. We just stand in support of our great community here."
Both Finch and Kerr said they discussed the situation with their players and everyone agreed with the decision to postpone the game on Saturday.
Emotions were still raw throughout the community as thousands of sign-carrying protesters marched in freezing conditions outside Target Center before the game shouting "ICE out! ICE out!"
And inside, several members of the trampoline dunk team wore shirts that also said "ICE OUT" in block capital letters.
"A lot of things – especially (for) this Minneapolis community (Saturday) – was rough. It’s been rough. … You can kind of feel it when we got here two days ago. The protests that were going on downtown, it was amazing to watch the turnout, and peaceful protests, the unified voice that was here. You feel like that would kind of turn the tide to a more positive direction, and then, you wake up in the morning, and you see what happened."
For just the fourth time, a player has topped the ballot in his first try, and technically No. 1 overall voted prospect Braden Montgomery sorta doesn’t count. But this round, Zach Franklin has joined Mathias LaCombe and Ky Bush as first-timers and Vote winners all in one sweep. Franklin romped in sparse voting, with 15 of 39 (38%) votes:
Franklin’s 38% was the biggest share of the Vote in the last 11 rounds. It’s the righty reliever’s first time on our ballot.
Past No. 32s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote 2025 Voting lasted only 31 rounds 2024 Eric Adler (29%) 2023 Voting lasted only 24 rounds 2022 Voting lasted only 17 rounds 2021 Will Kincanon (43%) 2020 José Rodríguez (29%) 2019 Ryan Burr (67%) 2018 Justin Yurchak (37%)
Franklin became just second righty and third relief pitcher (and second still with the club, with Peyton Pallette’s loss to Cleveland) to advance:
For this round, it’s another righty reliever, Phil Fox, who joins the fun.
South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2026
Alexander Albertus Third Baseman Age 21 2025 high level Arizona Complex League (Rookie) Age relative to high level +0.4 years Overall 2025 stats 8 games ▪️ 0 HR ▪️ 2 RBI ▪️ .333/.520/.444 ▪️ 3-of-3 (100.0%) SB ▪️ 6 BB ▪️ 3 K ▪️ 1.000 FLD%▪️ 0.3 WAR
What can you say further about Albertus? He seems to have great tools but an uncanny ability to stay off of the field (just eight games in a season-plus in the White Sox system). In 2025, he was assigned to Kannapolis but was … wait for it … injured. He lasted just eight games of ACL rehab before hitting the IL-60 again.
Marcelo Alcala Center Fielder Age 20 2025 high level ACL (Rookie) Age relative to high level -0.6 years Overall 2025 stats 42 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .233/.325/.479 ▪️ 14-of-15 (93.3%) SB ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 63 K ▪️ .935 FLD%▪️ 1.2 WAR
Alcala is a talent to dream on. Though still raw, he flashed power that we simply do not see in the White Sox system, especially when combined with the raw speed that can swipe bases at a 90%+ rate. Defense and bat discipline are issues to be sure, but imagine what additional outfield reps, AZ batting cage time, and even some training on the bases could do.
Aldrin Batista Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Age 22 2025 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 6 2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A) Age relative to high level -1.2 years Overall 2025 stats 2-0 ▪️ 7 games (2 starts) ▪️ 14 IP ▪️ 5.79 ERA ▪️ 17 K ▪️ 7 BB ▪️ 1.429 WHIP ▪️-1.2 WAR
Batista was our No. 6-voted player in last year’s poll and top righthander — and then disaster struck, as he started the third Dash game of the season on April 6 and then was out more than four months with a stress fracture in his right (pitching) elbow. His return in late August was iffy, with three poor relief appearances of five. But he ended the season with a scoreless (two-inning) “opener” start, which hopefully reverses the curse for 2026.
Reudis Diaz Right-handed relief pitcher Age 20 2025 high level ACL (Rookie) Age relative to high level -2.1 years Overall 2025 stats 1-1 ▪️ 1 SV▪️ 21 games (4 finishes) ▪️ 27 2/3 IP ▪️ 2.28.ERA ▪️ 18 K ▪️ 8 BB ▪️ 1.084 WHIP ▪️1.2 WAR
Who? You’re forgiven for being unfamiliar with an extremely young arm who hasn’t yet gotten out of rookie ball, but our No. 77 prospect a year ago (then a starter, repeating the DSL and killing it) made a successful adjustment Stateside. He’ll return to starting in 2026, likely getting his feet wet in Arizona and getting a promotion to Low-A in the second half of the season.
Phil Fox Right-Handed Relief Pitcher Age 23 2025 high level Birmingham (AA) Age relative to high level -2.7 years Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 2-3▪️ 11 SV ▪️ 46 games (23 finishes) ▪️ 63 2/3 IP ▪️ 3.25 ERA ▪️ 78 K ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 0.974 WHIP ▪️ 1.0 WAR
The clear closer among those arms with little experience in the higher minors, Fox absolutely dominated High-A in 2025. While his ERA is a touch high given his amazing control (5.57 K/BB), Fox was pitching significantly young for his level even while at High-A, much less Double-A. He and Zach Franklin are the true top late options in the system.
Ryan Galanie First Baseman Age 25 2025 high level Birmingham (AA) Age relative to high level +1.3 years Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 119 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 94 RBI ▪️ .276/.327/.422 ▪️ 14-of-17 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 35 BB ▪️ 79 K ▪️ .995 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR
It’s been a slow but steady climb for this 13th-rounder in 2023. The good news here is, with the caveat that Galanie has always competed older than his level, Galanie has found some footing. While his power/slugging numbers are merely OK, he drove in 94 runs in 2025. He disappeared a bit in the playoffs for Birmingham (just four hits in six games, with five walks as well) but started every game in the march to a second consecutive Southern League title for the Barons.
Jairo Iriarte Right-Handed Relief Pitcher Age 24 2025 SSS Top Prospect Vote Ranking 19 2025 high level Charlotte (AAA) Age relative to high level -4.3 years Overall 2025 stats (Rookie/AAA) 3-3▪️ 1 SV ▪️ 37 games (5 starts, 9 finishes) ▪️ 48 IP ▪️ 7.13 ERA ▪️ 50 K ▪️ 37 BB ▪️ 1.917 WHIP ▪️ -0.8 WAR
The 2025 season was an utter disaster for Iriarte, who went from prospective South Side rotation member to lost in space. The righty, who made his brief debut in the majors in 2024, both lost the plate and misplaced his strikeout power. The Brian Bannister Pitching Lab has its work cut out here, for sure.
Javier Mogollón Shortstop Age 20 2025 high level Kannapolis (Low-A) Age relative to high level -1.4 years Overall 2025 stats 51 games ▪️ 5 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .220/.347/.387 ▪️ 15-of-21 (71.4%) SB ▪️ 30 BB ▪️ 56 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.0 WAR
An ascending star just one year ago, we have to tap the breaks a bit on Mogollón after a lackluster first full season of minors ball. While still young for his level and managing to keep his head above water in a new league every season of his career, Mogollón’s undeniable hitting in Rookie ball fell off significantly with the Cannon Ballers. However, how much of that was due to battling injury is undetermined, as Mogollón was shelved for what turned out to be the season on July 2.
Yobal Rodriguez Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Age18 2025 high levelDSL White Sox (Rookie) Age relative to high level -1.5 years Overall 2025 stats0-3 ▪️ 13 games (10 starts) ▪️ 30 1/3 IP ▪️2.97 ERA ▪️ 33 K ▪️ 13 BB ▪️ 1.022 WHIP ▪️ 1.2 WAR
Rodriguez is a rare DSL pitcher, not for his relatively light innings load, but as a primary starter — and at just 17 years old (Yobal turns 18 on February 9). Inasmuch as it’s tough to project anyone out of the DSL, especially pitchers, you could hardly have hoped for more from him in his pro debut.
Tyler Schweitzer Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Age25 2025 high levelCharlotte (AAA) Age relative to high level -3.3 years Overall 2025 stats (AA/AAA) 8-2 ▪️ 27 games (10 starts) ▪️ 99 2/3 IP ▪️4.61 ERA ▪️ 81 K ▪️ 41 BB ▪️ 1.344 WHIP ▪️ 0.8 WAR
Schweitzer relieved in most of his games in 2025, but he remains a starter in our eyes given he was consistently paired with Tanner McDougal in Birmingham Barons starts. And in Birmingham, Schweitzer was divine: 1.27 ERA that included a long scoreless streak leading to a Charlotte promotion, 0.946 WHIP. However, everything the southpaw did as a Baron, he undid as a Knight (7.92 ERA, 1.740 ERA). While other gilded arms (Drew Thorpe, Grant Taylor) get to skip Charlotte entirely, Schweitzer was not so lucky. And that luck could prevent him from ever seeing the majors.
Round 24 of voting was the last of 2023 (we did not do an actual wrap for the voting, but Jordan Sprinkle ended up being our final pick), and the full archive.
The Orioles roster seems to be in pretty good shape. Mike Elias has beefed up the rotation and, if reports are to be believed, he could still bring in Framber Valdez. The additions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward should provide some pop in the middle of the lineup. And Ryan Helsley feels like a solid bet to bounce back and be a dependable ninth-inning option.
But that doesn’t mean that the squad is without flaws or question marks. The Orioles are far from runaway favorites in the American League. In fact, you could argue (pretty easily) that they are the fourth-best team in their own division, albeit with some untapped potential that others in the AL East lack.
Spring training is just two weeks away. Many of the players are likely to be in Sarasota sooner than that. Elias and the Orioles still need to sort out several things about their roster if they want to make a postseason run.
Is everyone in the rotation truly healthy?
It has become an annual tradition for Elias to address the media at some point in the spring and announce that at least one of the starters they were counting on has actually suffered a catastrophic injury.
The Orioles already have five solid rotation options in tow: Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin. And yet, they are continuing to seek out an upgrade.
Perhaps the plan is to proceed with a six-man rotation, or maybe they are just being extra cautious. After all, they got bit hard by the injury bug in 2025, and you can be sure Elias wants to avoid a similar fate in 2026. But there could also be an injury concern with at least one of the starters.
Eflin threw just 71.1 innings in 2025, and it’s unlikely the Orioles are going to expect him to go right back to be a 150+ inning pitcher in the next season. So don’t be shocked if he opens the season on the IL.
That makes the signing of Valdez, or anyone else, more important. Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, or Brandon Young could step in and pitch while Eflin recovers, but what if someone else goes down in the meantime? Then you have two of the fringy arms in the rotation, and we are right back where things where last year, when the rotation was scuffling.
Can the bullpen be trusted?
Just about every MLB team is crossing their fingers when it comes to their bullpen. It’s a fickle position group in which success one season does not guarantee success in the next. But the Orioles don’t even have a ton of prior triumphs to lean on in the unit.
FanGraphs’ Roster Resource tool projects Rico Garcia, Dietrich Enns, Colin Selby, and Kade Strowd to all be part of the Opening Day bullpen. Garcia is the most experienced of the group, but he only has 70 MLB innings under his belt, and nearly half of them came last year. Grant Wolfram, Yaramil Hiraldo, José Espada, and Cameron Foster are others that are expected to contribute, but they are similarly green.
The veteran duo of Helsley and Andrew Kittredge are likely to get most of the high-leverage innings. Helsely has a track record of success, just don’t look at his numbers with the Mets. There’s risk there, although the Orioles will tell you his stuff is fine. Maybe it was just mechanical issues that led to his struggles in Queens.
Even still, the relief group feels an arm (or two) light. Right now the middle innings are projected to belong to Keegan Akin, Yennier Cano, and Tyler Wells (if he doesn’t earn a spot in the rotation). That could be fine. It could also be a major concern. Signing or trading for a more dependable veteran wouldn’t be expensive, and it might level the group up just enough.
Who is going to be on the bench?
The Orioles have more MLB-quality position players than they have room for on their roster. That’s a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem.
The “everyday” lineup is pretty well set. Across the infield will be Alonso, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg. In the outfield it will be Ward, Colton Cowser, and either Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Beavers. Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo will be your catchers that also DH quite a bit.
That’s 10 players right there. Leody Taveras seems like the favorite to be the backup in center field. And then there is the Ryan Mountcastle/Coby Mayo dilemma.
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to have both players on the roster if they each still fit in the 1B/DH slot. Mayo can be demoted to Triple-A without losing him. Mountcastle would have to be on the big league roster. There is the outside chance that they co-exist, but only if Mayo takes on other positions. He has been a third baseman before. Maybe they drill that hard in the spring. Or perhaps he can learn a corner outfield spot, a move that has long been expected from scouts.
If the team keeps both Mayo and Mountcastle, then they won’t have room for Jeremiah Jackson, or any other “utility” player for that matter. That would mean no official backup to the infielders. They would have to rove around to give each other days off. Holliday can play shortstop. Westburg can play second base. Mayo would be the reserve at the hot corner. They would have a similar problem even if Jackson stuck around since he is not viewed as a shortstop option, although he can fill in at second and third.
Health plays a big role in all of this, and that could be why Elias is waiting on making a move as long as he can. Things happen in the spring all the time. If a significant player needs to open the season on the IL, like Henderson did last year, it would be nice to have a big league-quality solution in place rather than scrambling to add a Quad-A type in mid-March.
Despite temperatures in the feels-like single digits, you know baseball season is right around the corner when Evan Grant begins his roster projections.
Much like a group you may have heard about from Liverpool, the Red Sox have a quartet of young, talented lads who are breaking through a top 100 chart in the middle of the decade. Maybe that’s a stretch, I dunno, but I’m happy that we do have a Fab Four to call our own.
On Friday, MLB Pipeline released their updated rankings of the top 100 prospects in baseball. While it’s certainly not the be-all-end-all of prospect evaluation, Pipeline’s latest list gives us an opportunity to take stock in what we have at the top of our farm system.
The answer to that question: a trio of talented pitchers and a middle infielder. Left-handers Payton Tolle (number 19 in the league wide Top 100, according to Pipeline) and Connelly Early (number 56) are joined by 2025 first-round draft pick Kyson Witherspoon (number 84) on the bump, while shortstop Franklin Arias (number 31) represents the sole position player within the organization who currently makes the grade (another reference to that Liverpudlian band for ya).
Does that crop of players represent the most talent, on paper and in the eyes of Pipeline’s evaluators, across the sport? No, but there’s some legit juice among our representatives.
We’ve already seen glimpses of the potential that both Tolle and Early have from the left side; the former has a dynamite heater, while the latter has already displayed an ability to step into a massive role and provide his club with a chance to win a do-or-die game (they died, lmao, sure, but I’d hardly pin the majority of the blame on Early for how Game 3 in New York went down a few months ago). Witherspoon projects to be a guy who can deploy swing-and-miss stuff via multiple pitches, especially if he can develop his command. There’s a very real chance that Arias is up in Boston before we know it, possibly serving as a long-term solution on the infield dirt with his steady glove and ability to get lumber on the ball (Pipeline grades his hit tool as a 60 on the 20-80 scale; in plain English, that’s quite good).
This next wave, mixed with the group of guys who were on Pipeline lists of past and have already graduated from the minor league system, could very well be exciting! Of course, no prospect is a sure thing—although I’m still holding out hope for a Lars Anderson renaissance—but one can hope that this is a sign of continued progress within the Sox’s player development system. Craig Breslow has stressed his desire to build a sustainable winner, one that is primed to compete in both the short-term and for the long haul. Your opinion on that philosophy along with how the front office has actually done in carrying out that vision may vary, but if that master plan were to eventually bare fruit, it could look a little something like what we’re currently seeing: another hoard of players on the precipice of contributing to the major league club within the next 12 to 18 months or so.
Even with that in mind, I’m curious: does a continued faith in Boston’s player development open the door, perhaps, to some trades for veterans that can round out the roster—be it this winter, next summer, or in future offseasons (even if we might not have the patience for that)?
There are young position players already primed to play major roles in 2026, while you can point to plenty of young arms that can make an impact before their arbitration years are up. There’s an embarrassment of riches within the organization’s pitching depth—could that be leveraged in the future, especially if Breslow and Co. trust their own models and methods to develop pitching? Early was a fifth round draft pick a few years ago, and I can confidently assume that he wasn’t on many folks’ radars at this time last year (I can only speak with certainty for myself; if you had the Early emergence on your 2025 bingo card, hats off to ya), and he’s now been thrown around in trade ideas for multi-time All-Star players. Does the organization have faith in themselves to produce more Connelly Early-types?
Regardless of future transactions, the strides being made in the minors gives me some hope. There’s more work to be done—Tolle needs to work on his secondary pitches, Early has to be stretched out for longer outings, etc.—but the Red Sox aren’t in a bad spot right now. If they flip some of this prospect capital for a win-now type of player in the future, sure. If they keep them and they turn out to be big league contributors, sure. Either outcome would be a huge win for the work being done on the farm.
Now stop procrastinating and go shovel that snow, dear reader.
On Saturday night, Detroit Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal made baseball history by collecting his second straight American League Cy Young award. For all the conversation around Skubal as he prepares for his last season prior to free agency, the basic calculus for all parties involved revolves around the fundamental question; how long can Tarik Skubal stay at this level?
Since the middle of the 2023 season when he settled in after 2022 flexor tendon surgery, Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball. When we talk about his arbitration battle with the Tigers, whether he should be traded or extended, and what he will ultimately be paid in a long-term contract next offseason, it all comes down to an assessment of how good Tarik Skubal will be going forward, and for how long.
Assuming he has another great season in 2026, which certainly isn’t guaranteed, Skubal is set to ask for $400 million in free agency over a 10-year span, and he may end up making more than that. To be worth such a deal, Skubal needs to have numerous great seasons ahead of him, and to be able to still produce good numbers in his decline phase. No one is going to expect Cy Young caliber production out of him for 10 years, but they’ll be paying like he can average well above average production over the life of the deal. In reality, deals like this are really only about the first 5-6 years, with a big spending team expecting to eat much of the remaining contract.
The game has changed so much over the last quarter century that drawing reasonable comparisons to other great pitchers is difficult.
We can look to former Tigers ace Justin Verlander as one possible point of comparison. The future Hall of Famer has been the most valuable pitcher in the game over the last 20 years, though the title of “best” may go to Clayton Kershaw. It’s difficult to use JV as a comp because Verlander is a freak. He was throwing 100 mph by the time he was 21-22 years old, and he was able to reach back for triple digits with his max fastball for over a decade before settling into steady mid-to-high 90’s velocity for much of another full decade. Skubal had his first major arm surgery when he had Tommy John in his freshman year of college. A 2022 flexor tendon injury also required surgery and cost him over a season of work. Verlander had one stretch in 2014-2015 of core and shoulder trouble, but was otherwise unscathed until he finally blew out his UCL in 2020. He then returned at age 39 and won his long coveted second American League Cy Young award in 2022.
Verlander possesses a once in a generation type combination of arm strength, durability, hunger, and work ethic that can really only be surpassed by the likes of Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, and even now he’ll land himself a solid one-year deal in the coming weeks as he reaches his 43rd birthday. Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez had better careers than Verlander, though he’s closing in on Pedro, but they didn’t throw as hard nor maintain that kind of top shelf velocity deep into their careers.
Comparing aces
Other contemporary examples of a true ace, rather than just a good pitcher who had a peak season or two, may be a little more instructive than Verlander. So let’s take a quick look at the other top pitchers over the last 20 years and see what happened from age 30-35.
This chart below is the top 20 pitchers in fWAR from 2005-2025. Essentially you can see how much in fWAR they were worth prior to their 30’s, and then how much fWAR they earned in successive seasons. I left out guys who started their career in the 90’s like Roy Halladay. The 2020 season throws a bit of a wrinkle into this, and makes it a lot more of a project to take all these pitchers and get a fair average by each year of their career from age 30 onward. It’s not exactly cutting edge statistical analysis, but this is enough to give you a pretty good picture of the risk of a serious performance drop off from age 30 on.
Pitcher
20-29 fWAR
Age 30
Age 31
Age 32
Age 33
Age 34
35+
Clayton Kershaw
57.7
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.9
5.6
Max Scherzer
26.1
6.5
5.6
6.4
7.5
6.5
14.9
Felix Hernandez
52.6
1.1
0.3
0.3
-0.1
Jacob deGrom
15.5
9.0
6.9
4.9
2.2
5.3
Zack Greinke
31.4
4.5
5.3
2.3
4.9
2.7
11.7
Corey Kluber
16.6
4.9
7.2
5.5
0.6
1.4
Chris Sale
40.9
3.6
0.8
0.2
2.1
10.0
David Price
31
4.4
1.5
2.4
2.3
0.8
Sonny Gray
18.5
2.5
2.4
5.4
3.8
3.6
Aaron Nola
29.9
3.8
3.1
0.9
Zack Wheeler
12.4
7.2
4.2
5.9
5.4
4.0
Jon Lester
24.1
5.4
4.9
4.2
2.9
1.8
3.1
Cole Hamels
32.9
4.5
4.5
3.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
CC Sabathia
40.2
5.8
4.1
2.1
0.0
1.2
7.1
Adam Wainwright
17.6
3.9
6.2
4.9
0.9
2.8
9.4
Clliff Lee
14.8
6.4
7.3
7.1
5
5.6
2
Jake Peavy
32.1
2.9
4.3
2
1.5
1.2
0.7
Dan Haren
31.5
5.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.1
Justin Verlander
38.3
4.8
3.2
3.1
5.4
4.1
25.4
Avg fWAR
4.8
4.4
3.2
3
3.1
Again this only tells you so much, but it’s already pretty clear that paying a pitcher $35-40 million a year in their 30’s is never going to go very well. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll be a good pitcher for several more years, but the odds of many more Cy Young award caliber seasons isn’t great. Beyond 34, really only Justin Verlander remained a pretty valuable pitcher for a long time.
We should also note that most of these pitchers either never had a Tommy John surgery, or didn’t have one until they were already into their 30’s. DeGrom has already had two, and Zack Wheeler had the surgery in 2015 and came back very strong. Adam Wainwright had the surgery in 2011 and came back strong for another decade. Chris Sale had the surgery in 2020. Otherwise, the only other TJ guy on the list is Verlander, and he was 37 at the time with a crazy amount of mileage and high velocity heat behind him.
Now let’s consider the actual specimen himself.
Skubal is at the height of his powers
Tarik Skubal’s main attributes as a pitcher are velocity, a pretty unique fourseam fastball shape, a deceptive delivery, and one of the best changeups in baseball. The velocity isn’t going to last, but the other traits do bode well for Skubal remaining a pretty good starting iptcher even when he’s sitting 95 mph rather than the 97.6 mph he averaged in 2025. Frankly there’s a pretty good chance we’ve already seen peak velocity from the big left-hander. He averaged 95.8 mph in his 2023 return from flexor tendon surgery. He averaged 96.8 mph in winning his first Cy Young in 2024. That’s a pretty incredible trendline, but it can’t last forever.
Still, even when Skubal eventually falls back to averaging 95-96 mph again, his seam-shifted changeup is still going to remain a great weapon. Per Statcast, Skubal’s changeup was worth 26.8 runs above average, easily the best changeup is baseball. Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies was second at 19.8 runs above average, and only three other pitchers were above 10 runs above average. Certainly a great changeup benefits from a great fastball, and the changeup won’t be as effective when his velocity declines, but it’s so good it should remain a well above average pitch for Skubal for many years to come.
The distinctive thing about Skubal’s fourseamer is the fact that it’s basically a straight pitch. His ability to tie up right-handed hitters inside is predicated both on the velocity and deceptive delivery, but it’s also the fact that not many left-handers have a fourseamer with that shape. It’s almost a 97-98 mph cutter, and hitters cannot get used to the idea that it won’t run back over the plate at all. And just as he’s got you recognizing that fact, he’ll mix in a sinker that does swing back 10 inches on average more than the fourseamer, and he can start that pitch right at a right-handed hitters’ hands and nail the inner edge of the strike zone. There’s just no way to get experience against that combination of velocity and stuff.
If there’s any flaw in his game right now, it’s that Skubal doesn’t really have a good breaking ball indpendent of his other pitches. His slider plays up because his two main offerings are both elite, but it’s really a pretty average slider that thrives on velocity and the need for hitters to worry about the fastball-changeup combination. It’s a straight 90 mph pitch that doesn’t really break at all, with very pedestrian spin considering the velocity he’s throwing with. As the effectiveness of his two main pitches declines along with his velocity, he isn’t going to have that third pitch to fall back on unless he comes up with something new.
Of course, maybe he will. One of the unifying tendencies of the greats is the insane work ethic and dedication to keep making adjustments as their peak phase of raw athleticim starts to decline. Skubal can occasionally dump in a solid curveball, and as his velo declines perhaps he leans more into the sinker and converts to a pitcher who gets more ground balls than fly balls, playing the sinker and changeup off each other. When you have such outsized weapons, coming up with adjustments as they decline may be a little bit more straightforward.
Full steam ahead to 2026
For now, there’s nothing to suggest that Skubal isn’t going to go right back out there in 2026 and win his third straight Cy Young award. Garrett Crochett, Hunter Brown, Cole Ragans, and a few others, will try and step up to challenge him, but until Skubal starts losing velocity or gets injured, he’s going to remain really hard to beat.
At some point in the next few years, Skubal is basically guaranteed to have a letdown year. Maybe it will be an injury, maybe wear and tear will just sap a little gas out of the tank, but it’s bound to happen. No pitcher can maintain a peak like this for a half decade or more, particulary once they’re into their 30’s. Then the question will be if Skubal can adapt. Justin Verlander has been able to do so because he has a great slider, outstanding command, and the spin rates to continue throwing a good fastball even without the ability to scrape triple digits. Max Scherzer mixed fastball types and leaned into his excellent slider-changeup combination to continue pitching well through his mid-30’s.
Perhaps Skubal will simple mix fourseamers and sinkers more, while still relying on a changeup that wreaks havoc on either-handed hitters to remain a well above average starting pitcher. Right now, his stuff is so overpowering that he doesn’t rely on pinpoint command, but at lower velocities he may be forced to spot his stuff a little more precisely rather than just aiming over the middle and trusting his stuff.
What I hope this post illustrates, is why signing Skubal long-term was never really in the cards for the Tigers. With no apparent interest in an early extension after 2023 or 2024, he was always going to free agency.
Based on the Tigers payroll, they could afford $40 million a year for great Skubal. They would still be fine paying him $40 million a year for just good Skubal. The club is paying Javier Báez $24 million to be a quality utility player and that isn’t killing them right now. One underwater contract is not the end of the world. But what Scott Harris probably can’t do under the Ilitch family’s payroll restrictions, is pay $40 million a year for 5-6 seasons while Skubal is injured or just a fairly average pitcher down the road. That’s the fear. Such a deal could work out for the Tigers, but it’s hard to fault Scott Harris for not making that move without the Ilitch family committing to eating some of the back of that contract without limiting the rest of the Tigers’ payroll should things go that way. This is the kind of deal that ownership has to make happen. No doubt if Mike Ilitch were still around he would be pretty likely to push it through. Unlikely that the Ilitch family trust controlling the Tigers now feels the same way.
If Skubal is great for 2-3 more seasons and then is still a good starting pitcher into his mid-30’s, he’ll be plenty worth his money. If it all starts to unravel for him in his early 30’s, whoever signs him long-term is going to have a problem. But, for the likes of the Dodgers or the Mets? Just another huge deal they can easily absorb.
For now, we still have 2026 to enjoy this, so let’s just hope Skubal has at least one more monster year in him.
