The Phillies and Astros will wrap up what has been a bizarre series on Thursday afternoon. In both of the previous games, the Phillies fell behind early, and while their comeback fell short on Tuesday, they were able to surge ahead on Wednesday.

Zack Wheeler will start for the Phillies. The righthander has given up just two runs across 12 innings in his last two starts.

Cristian Javier goes for the Astros. The righty has had a rough season, especially on the road where his ERA is 6.65.

Game time is 1:05 PM and will be televised locally by NBCSP and NBC 10.

Freddy Peralta looks like he’s back to his old self. Over his last five starts with the Rays, he has a 2.73 ERA and 3.80 FIP while cutting his walk rate from 9.4% with the Mets to 4.5% with the Rays. Kyle Snyder and his team helped Peralta clean up some mechanical things to help him get lower down the mound, but those were relatively minor tweaks compared to how Peralta has changed the way he uses his arsenal.

We know the Rays pitching team preaches two main things: winning the race to two strikes and expanding the zone with two strikes. It’s easy to tell a pitcher, “Okay, get to two strikes and then make them chase.” But what does that actually look like in practice?

It starts with how Peralta is attacking the zone. He’s actually finding the zone less with the Rays compared to his time with the Mets (40.5% vs 43.2%), but his strike rate is up (64.1% vs 60.5%). In other words, he’s throwing fewer pitches in the zone but getting more strikes overall. That’s the result of changing how and where he uses each pitch.

Aside from Peralta’s fastball, all of his secondary shapes are being used differently. The changes are dramatic. Peralta has taken his changeup and sweeper out of the zone more often while dramatically increasing the rate at which he lands his curveball in the zone. Each pitch now has a more defined job.

Two important pieces of a fastball-offspeed relationship are velocity separation and vertical approach angle (VAA) separation. His offspeed pitch doesn’t have much velocity separation from his fastball which makes it harder to generate in-zone whiffs, so the Rays are having Peralta lean into its vertical separation from his fastball and use it primarily as a chase pitch. His overall usage of it has increased – especially against righties – which makes sense because it’s his best pitch. But the bigger change is where he’s using it: out of the zone rather than trying to steal strikes with it. His sweeper is being used in a similar way, but mostly for chases against righties.

Peralta’s curveball usage is most interesting. It’s a relatively platoon-neutral shape, but it lacks the velocity and depth to suppress contact. The Rays have helped him shift his usage of the pitch to being more of a taste-breaker to earn called strikes in counts where batters don’t typically swing at breaking balls. Peralta is throwing curveballs nearly a quarter of the time on the first pitch of an at-bat and getting just a 20% swing rate against it compared to his called strike rate of 54.3%. Peralta is taking advantage of that tendency by using his curveball to steal called strikes before hitters are ready to react to it.

Once Peralta gets to strike one, the rest of his arsenal can do what the Rays want it to do: attack the edges of the zone and force swings outside it. He’s throwing 45% fastballs and just under 40% offspeed pitches when he’s ahead or even in the count. The tunnel between those two pitches is excellent, allowing him to attack the zone without giving hitters an easy pitch to sit on. He’ll occasionally sprinkle in a breaking ball to keep hitters off balance.

Eventually, hitters will start to adjust and they might be looking to do damage on a first pitch curve in the zone. Peralta and the Rays might already be preparing for his next adjustment – a cutter.

It appears Peralta introduced a cutter in his most recent start against the Braves:

I circled two pitches that Hawkeye tagged as four-seamers, but their movement profile looks much more like a cutter. Peralta is clearly still developing the shape, so it will likely vary as he continues to refine it. The two pitches sat in the upper 80s with less vertical movement than his four-seamer and similar glove-side movement to his breaking balls.

That combination could make the cutter a useful “bridge” pitch to his sweeper against righties. It’s relatively easy for hitters to distinguish Peralta’s four-seam fastball from his sweeper out of the hand, but a cutter occupying the space between them gives hitters another shape to account for. Both cutters appeared to be intended down and just off the plate glove-side. That’s where Peralta’s breaking-ball shapes are most effective, so the cutter could add another layer of deception to the way his arsenal interacts.

Cutter shapes also tend to play platoon-neutral, so this is something he can deploy against lefties but with a different purpose than being a bridge to a breaking ball. It’s not a perfect tunnel because of the difference in vertical movement, but the difference in velocity between his cutter and offspeed is essentially nonexistent. The cutter and offspeed pitch sit in the same velocity band, but have nearly two feet of difference in horizontal movement. That could create a difficult decision for hitters looking to protect with two strikes; if Peralta can maintain those shapes, the two pitches could be difficult to distinguish out of the hand.

It will take some time for Peralta to land on a consistent shape, but I’m looking forward to seeing him increase its usage into October. The curveball has already given Peralta a new way to steal strikes early in the count; the potential cutter could make those strikes harder to predict while giving his sweeper and changeup more room to work once he’s ahead. That makes it an especially natural fit for the Rays’ philosophy.

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The NFL betting volume took some heat off the MLB player prop market yesterday, and I took advantage with a big day on the diamond, including a pair of dingers. I still have juice to sprint to the finish line.

My home run props are looking for a Jake Burger blast vs. Logan Gilbert. But Ryan Feltner is the pitcher worth exploiting most, and we're buying Bronx Bombers Cody Bellinger and Luis Garcia to make some noise on Thursday, Sept. 10.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Cody Bellinger	18.3%
Jake Burger	16%
Luis Garcia	24%
💲Today's HR parlay	107.4x

Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (18.3%)

Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner is the biggest pitcher target today. He has the worst HR/9 among today's starters dating back to last year and is pitching in the toughest environment on the slate.

The wind is blowing out to the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and Feltner gives up more slugging to left-handed bats. It's another great day to target New York Yankees lefties.

Cody Bellinger cashed yesterday at 17% with a fair price of 20%. I might move that fair price closer to 21%, making today's 18.3% an easy call for my MLB picks.

Todd Cordell has a complete look at this game with his Rockies vs. Yankees predictions.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, Rockies.TV

Home run prediction: Jake Burger (16%)

Logan Gilbert has the fifth-worst HR/FB rate among starters in the second half at 21.8%, along with the 11th-worst HR/9 at 2.12. He just gave up four dingers in his last start and has surrendered 11 home runs since Aug. 1, with lefties and righties both hitting him for power.

I'll roll with Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger. I have his fair price at 20%, so there's plenty of value on a batter with nine homers in the second half.

He's gone deep three times over the last three games and brings a hot bat against a cold arm, with a great price on a small slate.

For a deeper dive into this afternoon's clash, consult Neil Parker's Rangers vs. Mariners predictions.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV

Home run prediction: Luis Garcia (24%)

Let's get one more left-handed bat against Ryan Feltner in the best home-run environment on the board. Feltner is the best HR target, and Yankee Stadium is the best backdrop for four-baggers. It makes sense to grab another left-handed Yankee bat on a small Thursday slate.

Garcia went deep yesterday at a similar price and has multiple hits in both games of this series. Aaron Judge is back in the lineup, and that only helps the hitters behind him, including Garcia.

The Rockies' bullpen is still one of the worst in baseball and owns the dead-last second-half ERA.

Garcia is good to 27%.

• Time: 11:59 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: One National or Two local

Best home run combo for September 10

Cody Bellinger	Trade Now 107.4x
Jake Burger
Luis Garcia

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

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I feel certain that if I look long and hard, I’ll be able to find some internet source material that says that Philadelphia is a lovely place to visit in October. I mean, it might be propaganda from the city’s tourism board or something, but it’s got to be out there somewhere, right? Right now, the Cubs find themselves on a death march in that direction. To be clear, I’ll go that far with doom and gloom, but no way and no how is it entering my mind that this team doesn’t reach the playoffs. As long as we are getting the record straight, I think the Cubs are going to take this off day and then get back to playing better baseball and winning games. It’s not optimal that they are looking up at Philly with 15 to play. But also, it’s 1.5 games. Tie goes to the Cubs, so that half isn’t scaring me in the slightest. Though I do recognize for Philly, it’s the “good” half. If you had to pick one, you want to be one less win than one more loss. But that’s splitting hairs.

I was relatively prepared to write something to the extent “The Cubs played and lost and none of us want to talk about it, so moving on.” After all, the top of the fourth inning was the first time the Cubs had a better chance to win at the end of the half inning than the start of it. That improvement in their odds? .002! The bottom of the inning kept it rolling. The Cubs progressed .005! The bottom of the fifth was a positive inning at .004. By the end of the sixth, the Brewers were at 99.2 percent to win. It was almost a straight line in the Brewers direction through six innings. For all of the seventh and eighth innings, the game was sliding around in the 99.0 to 99.9 percent chance of the Brewers winning. When the game looks like that, there is no WPA being generated anywhere.

I can imagine inquiring minds wondering, how close did WPA think this ever got? Pete Crow-Armstrong’s inning opening walk put the WPA at 99.8 percent chance. By the time Michael Conforto had a two-out, two-run double they had moved the odds all of the way to… 96.3 percent. So there you have it, nothing at all good happened for the Cubs by way of WPA. They never moved the needle and you’ll see that in the WPA scores as we move on.

I’ll give a few paragraphs on my thoughts and you can dismiss it entirely as cope if you want. I’m not at all bothered by losing five of seven to the Brewers. I saw a lot of these games in part or in whole. What I saw? A blow0ut in favor of the Cubs and a blowout in favor of the Brewers (this game, despite the late rally). The other five games went overwhelmingly to the Brewers, but I saw five games that were neck and neck. A few plays here or there wins those games. I’m not at all surprised the Brewers came out on top. They are the better team. They have been for a few years now. Good teams often find a way to win a close game. Though Jed was always right that in general, if you are really good, you’d rather it wasn’t close. But the Brewers are built especially well for close games. They are built on playing fundamental baseball, taking advantage of every little edge and limiting mistakes wherever possible.

I don’t care that they won these two sets of games. Obviously, it would have been a heck of a lot better to win them. I’m not blowing smoke at anyone. There is no significant contributor on this Cub team that thinks they can’t go toe to toe with the Brewers and win a series. If even one guy in their clubhouse eventually takes the field against the Cubs thinking they are going to roll and it’s all going to be easy, awesome. The Cubs are going to be ready for that fight. Of course it’s going to be an uphill battle. I shouldn’t have to say it, but I’ve said it dozens of times here for months and months. Nothing that matters is ever going to come easy for this team. It’s just too flawed.

Excellent hitting. Excellent fielding. Good baserunning. The National League MVP. A couple of battle tested starters with playoff experience. I’m saying there’s a chance. I lived through Cub baseball in the 80’s and 90’s, a chance is a heck of a lot better than we had most years. And I sure am glad I wasn’t around with Al and so many others for the 70’s. Roll it all out on the field. Hope everything breaks right. Be prepared for exiting with barely a whimper. Then get the offseason right. Take PCA out of your Cub season. Very little went well. Maybe you found some fringy relievers (to be depth and not key performers). You got a whole lot of data for making decisions on Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ and how each might age. But really, this isn’t a team boasting a bunch of career years or anything else.

This team can be better next year. Particularly if it has some actual pitching. But let’s enjoy this ride for a few weeks longer, shall we? Rest up on our day off. We’re gonna have to try to will this team to the finish line and beyond. What else are you doing? Even if you are a rabid football fan, that’s only a couple of days per week. You can put your honey-do’s off another couple of weeks. We’ve got work to do putting some positive mental energy behind this team over these last two plus weeks. Let’s do it.

Three Positives:

• Pete gets the top spot. He had a single and a walk. He scored twice.
• Michael Conforto had that two-run double I referenced in the open and was also hit by a pitch.
• Alex Bregman was the only other Cub to reach twice, with a double and a walk, though neither really impacted the game other than making Brewers pitchers work.
• Hat tips for Trent Thornton and Caleb Thielbar each working clean innings with no leverage.

Game 147, September 9: Brewers 8, Cubs 6 (81-66)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Conforto (.015). 1-3, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.006). 1-3, DP
• Sidekick: Trent Thornton (.004). IP, 3 BF, 2 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.355). 4 IP, 23 BF, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 R (6 ER), 6 K (L 4-2)
• Goat: B.J. Murray, Jr. (-.038). 0-1
• Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.035). 1-4, RBI

Note: the Heroes and Goats debut for Murray, the 51st Cub to join the list this year. Will he be the last?

WPA Play of the Game: Christian Yelich’s two-out, three-run homer in the first inning. You pretty much knew it was over already, right? (.250)

Cubs Play of the Game: Kevin Gausman actually struck out Andrew Vaughn just one batter earlier, providing hope of escaping that first inning unscathed. (.043)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 146 Winner: Carson Kelly received 52 of 78 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +27
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
• Michael Conforto +18
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Carson Kelly +13.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Seiya Suzuki -16
• Nico Hoerner -16.5
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: You’ll pardon me if I dropped all of the division leaders. I believe those ships have sailed. Though with the trajectories of the Phillies and Braves, I may review that decision again next week.

Padres win (2.5 back). Phillies win (1.5 up). Diamondbacks lose (3 back).

Up Next: The Cubs are off Thursday. The only consequential game is Thursday afternoon when the Phillies play that “game in hand” that they have. They host the Astros. The teams have split the first two games. The Phillies then fly to Atlanta for a three-game set to kick off a nine-game, three-city road trip. They have nine road games followed by hosting the Brewers and Rays. The remaining Philly schedule is tricky.

The Cubs begin the last “block” of games on the year. 15 games in 17 days with days off bracketing the Reds series September 18-20. So off day, six home games, off day, three road games, off day, three home games, three road games. Two of five series against likely playoff teams. The other three series are against teams mostly fighting to try to limp in with a winning record. Visiting Fangraphs for their model’s projections of those 15 games finds the Cubs winning eight more games, including all three against the Braves but only one each versus the Pirates and Reds. Go figure that out.

Shōta Imanaga (9-10, 3.91) gets the opener for the Cubs. He pitched well in Miami the last time out. He won, allowing a run on three hits over six innings. It was a nice bounce back after a handful of rough starts. Imanaga has two starts against the Pirates, one win and just four hits and no runs yielded in 12 innings of work.

The Pirates are 73-73 heading into play Thursday night in Chicago against the White Sox. They have won the first two against the Sox. They are 6-2 so far this month. They haven’t officially named starters for the series yet. Fangraphs projects Braxton Ashcraft to start. Ashcraft is having a terrific season at 14-6, 3.65. He did lose his last start against the Angels. He allowed three runs on seven hits in five innings of work. He’s finishing very strong though with 4-2, 2.51 over his last seven. He went nine and eight innings back to back August 13 and 18, winning both. So he gets deep into some games too. He hasn’t thrown even 90 pitches in a game since August 24 as the Pirates monitor his workload. They talked about loss of command and velocity as that last start went along.

Wednesday’s Pirates win was close and you’d hope Thursday’s will be a close game too, giving the Cub bullpen a huge rest edge. The Pirates used eight pitchers Wednesday. Pirate relievers are middle of the road in ERA (4.03, 15th), two spots behind the Cubs. Pirate relievers have thrown the ninth most innings of any bullpen. They are tied with the Cubs for 22nd in saves and have only four less blown saves (though I’ll keep reminding you that blown saves includes a lot of rather innocuous middle inning runs allowed in close games). Pirate relievers are 19th in WHIP but 7th in opponent batting average (read: a lot of walks). The Cubs might be able to steal a game in the late innings with patient at bats.

We’re likely catching both Ashcraft and Paul Skenes in the series (the answer to the go figure). But I still like the Cubs to come out with a couple of wins. But three sure would be nice.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rangers fans and fans across the country.

This week’s Lone Star Ball Reacts question looks to the upcoming offseason, and the various Rangers players who are scheduled to hit the free agent market this offseason.

We want to know, of the Rangers who are set to become free agents, who would you most like to see the Rangers bring back?

Cast your vote below…

Worcester: W, 8-3 (BOX SCORE)

While Jedixson Paez struggled to go far in Lehigh Valley against the IronPigs (Phillies AAA) some may wonder if him being pulled at exactly 60 pitches may signify some not too distant need to have him come up to toss another few innings soon, or at least give the club the option to do so if needed. Still, Paez threw ten scoreless outs and set the WooSox up well to take the win.

The team grabbed fourteen hits, 11 of those being singles but one being a home run by Vinny Capra in the ninth to combat the IronPigs breaking their scoreless run; Capra’s home run really put the game on ice and gave the team a five run lead. Most notable story from this box score, though, is Franklin Arias reaching base four times, going 2-for-3 with two walks. Chances are, if there’s a game, Arias is getting on.

Portland: L, 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

As the Red Sox fell to an Angels team that featured Vaughn Grissom, his return in Isaiah Jackson had both his first Double-A start in the Sea Dogs’ final series of the season, his first hit (a double) in Double-A, as well as his first stolen base and RBI. Henry Godbout also continued to hit as his Double-A batting average has now topped .300. Sadly, though, the hits came far and few between, and Hayden Mullins kept the ball in the yard in yet another quality start, going six innings with just one run allowed, Aaron Nixon’s promotion went less than stellar as he gave the lead up to the Rumble Ponies (Mets AA) in the 7th and the Sea Dogs would not recover, though they would thwart three opportunities to score with a runner in scoring position. Such is baseball!

The Braves sure do love “hey, this guy might have reverse splits, let’s do something about it!” Or, maybe they don’t really love it, but this is at least twice in recent memory that they’ve taken someone who might have… neutral splits, and gone with more righty bats. It doesn’t make much sense to me, but there it is. Lane Thomas and Brewer Hicklen are in the lineup this afternoon, as well as Ha-Seong Kim, while Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Mike Yastrzemski ride the bench.

Let’s take a wide view of Nick Martinez and his stats.

For the 2026 season, Martinez has a .283 wOBA-against by lefties, and a .310 wOBA-against by righties. This persists when you look at inputs by those batters, with a 3.78 xERA from lefty batters and a 4.89 xERA by righty batters.

However, the actual pitching is way less clear cut: Martinez has a 3.96 FIP and 4.50 xFIP against lefties, and a 3.94 FIP and 4.45 xFIP against righties. He seems more platoon-neutral than anything else. Considering that Lane Thomas is himself worse against righties, I’m not a huge fan of this, but whatever.

If you take the arc of Martinez’ career, “platoon-neutral” also seems tempting as a conclusion. His wOBA-against is within .001 against lefties and righties, his xERA is marginally lower against lefties (4.19 to 4.39), and his FIP and xFIP have a marginal split in the expected direction (4.53 / 4.66 against lefties, 4.45 / 4.49 against righties). So, I wouldn’t do this, but the Braves are.

Meanwhile, the Rays are giving Martin Perez a few more righties to contend with, including Ryan Vilade and Nick Madrigal, though Chandler Simpson and Cedric Mullins remain in the lineup despite batting left-handed.

Let’s talk about batter-versus-pitcher, too, just for the sake of having something else to add here, even though it doesn’t really matter. Martin Perez has been around a while, but most of these Rays batters have not. Both Nick Martinez and most guys in the Braves’ lineup are veteran-ish.

Everyone but Hicklen and Drake Baldwin on the Braves side has faced Nick Martinez at least twice; Matt Olson leads the pack with 19 PAs and a pretty hefty .508 wOBA / .384 xwOBA. Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mauricio Dubon have also done the business against Martinez in limited PAs. The collective line is a .351 wOBA and .336 xwOBA in 53 PAs.

For the Rays and Perez, it’s similar-ish: six of nine in their lineup have faced him. Yandy Diaz (.468 wOBA, .358 xwOBA) has 32 career PAs against Perez; Mullins has struggled with a .210-.220ish wOBA/xwOBA in 14 PAs. Collectively, it’s 64 PAs with a .364 wOBA / .316 xwOBA, so basically there’s a similar level of familiarity and performance in that sample by both of these teams against the scheduled starter.

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It's another short Thursday slate for our MLB expert picks.

Two of our analysts are eyeing lines from the Texas Rangers-Seattle Mariners clash at T-Mobile Field this afternoon, while Josh Inglis is backing the Chicago White Sox to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the nightcap on Thursday, Sept. 10.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: CHW ML	51%
Jon Metler: TEX ML	47%
Joe Osborne: TEX/SEA o6.5	51%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 51¢ at Polymarket

I got this at 51% and have the fair price closer to 54%.

The Chicago White Sox have already dropped both games of this series, and the threat of a sweep should provide plenty of motivation. There might be some interest in the Pittsburgh Pirates with White Sox rookie Hagen Smith making his first start, but he's been a nasty lefty out of the bullpen this year, with nine scoreless outings in 10 games and 23 Ks over 16 innings.

Jared Jones looks like a pitcher who struggles on visiting mounds, with a 4.0 BB/9 away from home compared to 2.6 at PNC Park. His road WHIP is also half a point higher.

I see this as a 50/50 game on a neutral field, and home-field advantage is worth at least another 2%, or 20 points, to me. The White Sox are fighting to hold onto the AL Central lead, while Pittsburgh has already secured the series and Chicago has one more chance to avoid the brooms.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, CHSN

Jon Metler's expert pick: Rangers moneyline

Price: 47¢ at Polymarket

The Texas Rangers are trading at 47%, and that's a number I'm buying because I price them closer to a 52% favorite. That's a sizable edge compared to what we typically see in this market. 

The middle of the Seattle Mariners' lineup, including hitters like Cal Raleigh and Dominic Canzone, features steep uppercut swings designed to elevate the ball. 

That's exactly what Jacob deGrom's high-velocity fastball with late riding life at the letters can neutralize, turning those uppercut swings into routine popups or complete whiffs. 

The Mariners will try to counter the right-handed deGrom by stacking their lineup with seven left-handed hitters, but that doesn't give them an advantage. DeGrom is equally tough on lefties as he is on righties, thanks to his ability to attack their hands with his fastball and use his back-foot slider to keep them off balance.

Neil Parker breaks this matchup down further in his Rangers vs. Mariners predictions.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers at Mariners Over 6.5

Price: 51¢ at Polymarket

Such a low total isn’t warranted with the 2026 versions of these two starters.

Logan Gilbert owns a 4.45 home ERA and just surrendered seven earned runs and four homers to the A’s, and deGrom has a brutal 5.86 road ERA across 13 starts.

Neither lineup is imposing, but each is in respectable form. Seattle ranks fifth in wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, while Texas sits second overall over the past week.

Add in two bullpens getting smacked around all September, and getting to seven runs shouldn’t be much of a struggle.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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The Seattle Mariners are a short home favorite over the Texas Rangers ahead of the 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch in their series finale at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, Sept. 10.

My top Rangers vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks call for the Rangers to pull off the afternoon win while the total goes Over the number.

Who will win Rangers vs Mariners today: Rangers moneyline (46.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

While there have been a handful of hiccups from Texas Rangers veteran Jacob deGrom, he’s still allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 27 starts. Perhaps even more encouraging, the 38-year-old righty’s 3.11 xFIP ranks ninth among104 starters with at least 100 innings.

The Texas offense is also trending in the right direction with a fourth-ranked wOBA, third-ranked ISO and fourth-ranked xwOBA over the past two weeks. For comparison, the Seattle Mariners check in at 24th, 26th, and 23rd, respectively.

Mariners righty Logan Gilbert has also started to slide late in the season with a ho-hum 4.10 xERA and 3.92 xFIP over his past six starts, and Seattle ranking 30th in bullpen xERA over the past 30 days only bolsters the case to back Texas.

As a result, I expect the Rangers to outscore the Mariners this afternoon and recommend the Texas moneyline to 50%.

COVERS INTEL: DeGrom ranking second in swinging-strike percentage, seventh in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and eighth in strikeout percentage reinforces that the two-time Cy Young winner is still among the best in baseball.

Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 (51.2%)

This is an aggressively low total, and I’m still bullish on the Over 6.5 to 53.5%.

As highlighted, the Rangers are rolling at the dish, and the Mariners have scored eight times through the first two games of the series and have hit the Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI). Texas has also cashed the Over in 11 of its past 15 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI). 

Seattle isn’t the only team with struggling relievers, with Texas ranking 23rd in bullpen xERA over the past 30 days.

Rangers vs Mariners home run prediction: Wyatt Langford (16.7%)

Gilbert has surrendered 11 homers across his past seven starts with an unheard-of .403 ISO allowed to right-handed hitters. Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford has hit 12 of his 16 homers against righties with a .210 ISO. He’s also faced Gilbert 21 times, so there’s a growing familiarity.

Rangers vs Mariners weather

The weather forecast calls for clear, sunny skies with warm afternoon temperatures peaking around 75 degrees, and a light 4-6 mph wind blowing out toward right-center field at T-Mobile Park.

Rangers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 47.6% | Mariners 56.5%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (67.7%) | Mariners -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (52.4%) | Under 6.5 (52.4%)

Rangers vs Mariners trend

The Rangers have hit the Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI), and the Mariners have gone Over in 15 of 22 (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.

How to watch Rangers vs Mariners and game info

Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries

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