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It wouldn’t have been a proper Yankees-Twins series in Minnesota without a game that devolved into extra-innings madness. The Yankees failed to cash in multiple bases loaded opportunities and so missed a chance to sweep, falling farther behind the Rays in the standings. Nonetheless, the Bombers took care of business in the first two games of the series, and it is from the middle game that we pull our candidate for Sequence of the Week.

We join Max Fried with two outs in the bottom of the fifth on Tuesday at Target Field. The Yankees have a 3-1 lead courtesy of a Cody Bellinger two-run homer and George Lombard Jr. RBI single. However, the Twins are threatening to cut the lead to one with Emmanuel Rodriguez on second with a two-out double. That brings the number nine hitter Austin Martin to the plate, a batter Fried absolutely wants to retire to avoid the lineup turning over with a runner in scoring position.

After going almost all fastballs the first time he faced Martin, Fried looks to steal a called first-pitch strike with a backdoor sweeper.

After seeing mostly hard stuff that moved away from him, you can understand why Martin would give up on this pitch early given how far from the strike zone it is initially aimed. Fried sweeps in a dandy on the outer half for called strike one.

Establishing that backdoor breaking ball for a called strike forces Martin to respect any pitches that start away, even those that look like balls out of the hand. This opens up a host of possibilities for Fried, including the changeup low and away for chase.

This is a pretty well-executed changeup out of the zone down and outside. It looks like it is aimed at that corner of the zone before fading away from the hitter. You can see Martin was initially tempted to chase the pitch — a product of that first pitch backdoor sweeper — before holding up for an impressively disciplined take.

With Martin taking against that last pitch away, Fried and Ali Sánchez feel that there is an opening for another backdoor sweeper.

Another decently executed pitch, just a little too low to nip the bottom of the zone for a second called strike. It is worth noting that Martin showed some willingness to offer before backing off, so that outside pitch is still open for chase opportunities.

Not wanting to fall any further behind in the count, Fried throws his first fastball of the encounter. However, unlike the four-seamers and sinkers he threw Martin in the first AB, this cutter breaks toward the hitter instead of away. Therefore, if the hitter succeeds in reading fastball spin out of the hand, a backdoor cutter that starts off the plate away should freeze Martin.

That is precisely what happens, Fried pinpointing this cutter with precision on the corner up and away. Martin leaves the bat on his shoulder, only to watch the pitch cut across the black of the plate for called strike two.

Now that he has established his fastball in the zone and has the count leverage in his favor, Fried has an opening to climb the ladder with the cutter hoping for a chase and whiff under a pitch elevated above the zone.

Even though this offering misses the top of the zone by about a foot, it’s not a complete waste pitch. Fried has reset the hitter’s eye level for the fastball up, which should open the door for a breaking ball down and in.

That is just what Fried’s thought process is with the count full. He doesn’t need to give in with a fastball with first base open, knowing that it will be very hard for Martin to lay off a breaking ball that looks like a strike out of the hand.

Now this is what you call a back-foot sweeper. The pitch looks like a strike for much of its journey toward home until the lateral sweep really seems to accelerate in the final 15 feet. It’s just where you want to land a pitch like this, close enough to the strike zone to extract the chase but close enough to the batter that he is not able to pull in his hands in time to make contact.

Here’s the full sequence:

Asked after the start what positives he would take away, Fried cited breaking ball command and an economical pitch count to go seven strong on just 88 pitches, the first point certainly highlighted by this sequence.

The Yankees desperately needed this start from Fried, not only to boost their chances of winning this particular game but also as a sign of continued build-up from the recurrence of his left elbow bone bruise. Fried labored in the start before this one, needing 80 pitches to complete 3.1 innings. Seeing him back to his best when it comes to pitch efficiency and damage limitation has to be encouraging as they formulate their postseason rotation plans.

San Diego Padres (83-69) at Colorado Rockies (56-96), September 17, 2026, 12:10 p.m. PST

Watch: Padres.TV

Location: Coors Field – Denver, Colo.

Listen: 97.3 The Fan

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Closing out the road trip. pic.twitter.com/nZiOgGx7k7

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 17, 2026

Thursday afternoon baseball ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/HQbPGCWZxT

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 17, 2026

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The offense fell flat for the Colorado Rockies as Mason Adams struggled on the mound, leading to a 9-3 victory for the San Diego Padres. The Rockies will now look to settle for a series split in their final match-up against the Padres in 2026.

Tanner Gordon (1-4, 5.55 ERA) takes the ball for the Rockies, still trying to figure out a role with the Rockies. Since rejoining the rotation on August 21, Gordon has had two brilliant starts surrounded by three not-so-great starts. In his last two outings, he has allowed nine runs on 18 hits in 8.2 innings of work. Specifically, he allowed four runs on 10 hits in four innings against the Detroit Tigers. A familiar issue is that Gordon may throw a lot of strikes, but he gives up a lot of contact and that gets him into trouble. He doesn’t walk many and can get a modest number of strikeouts, but if he isn’t inducing the kind of contact that leads to groundball outs, things can get away from him in a hurry.

This will be Gordon’s first appearance against the Padres this season. He has made three previous starts in his career, going 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA. He made two starts in 2025, allowing seven runs on eight hits over 9.2 innings of work. He had 14 strikeouts against two walks, but was stung by four home runs. The Padres have a knack for hitting the ball hard, especially at Coors Field, so that will be something that Gordon has to be mindful of.

Michael King (11-9, 3.03 ERA) makes the start for the Padres. It’s been business as usual for King since his transition into a full-time starter when joining the Padres in 2024. In 175 innings of work, he has 148 strikeouts against 66 walks while opponents are hitting just .215 against him. King has been an effective workhorse all season, working at least six innings in all but nine of his 30 starts. He’s been on a hot streak lately, allowing just three runs over his last four starts, all of which came in seven innings. King’s command can get shaky at times, but he combats that with a strong strikeout ability and by getting weak contact.

He last faced the Rockies on July 28, allowing four runs on six hits over six innings. In five career appearances against Colorado, King has a 5.54 ERA over 26 innings of work. He has given up five home runs while striking out 30 against eight walks. A free-swinging Rockies offense will need to make him work and find a way to square up the ball like they did Tuesday night.

First Pitch: 1:10 pm MDT

TV: Rockies TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

Padres SB Nation Site: Gaslamp Ball

Lineups:

Closing out the road trip. pic.twitter.com/nZiOgGx7k7

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 17, 2026

Thursday afternoon baseball ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/HQbPGCWZxT

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 17, 2026

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The myth

Nobody FOLDS like a Torey team in September.

Same movie every year.

— PHX Fans (@PHXFansAZ) September 5, 2026

Now, a heavily upvoted shitpost from the Diamondbacks subreddit, and a Tweet by one of the most toxic members of fandom may not seem worth bothering about. And they probably are not. But it does reflect a general feeling that September is the cruelest month for Arizona fans. It is true that this is the fourth consecutive season where the team could be seen as imploding. There was the “backing into the post-season” meme from 2023, missing out by a narrow margin in 2024 and 2025, and while the story of this year has yet to be completed, at the time of writing the team is on the outside of the NL playoff picture. Never mind that their record would be winning two of the three divisions in the AL…

So, first stop. Is there any truth to the perception?

The reality

TL;DR No.

The team’s performance in September over the past few years is not particularly better or worse than their performance the rest of the year. Indeed, the last time the D-backs had any kind of losing record in September was in 2022. Here’s their performance by each calendar month since the beginning of the 2023 season:

• Mar/Apr: .517
• May: .495
• June: .551
• July: .495
• Aug: .554
• Sep/Oct: .511

The overall win percentage in that time is .521. Based on that, over the 3.5 seasons and 92 September games, you would expect their record in the month to be 48-44. It is actually… 47-45. If that’s the “choking” demanded for the narrative, it’s an underwhelming one. Now, I also hear, “The meltdown is when they need to win the last few games to make the wildcard they lose.” So let’s take a look at each recent season specifically, and see what actually happened.

2023. Well, the above doesn’t exactly support the idea of a meltdown, does it? On September 13, Arizona had just a 30.7% chance of making the post-season. But they were about to go on an 8-2 run which included sweeps against both the Cubs and Giants. The former was particularly huge. They came in to Chase Field on September 15, with a 2.5 game lead over the D-backs, and left three days later, behind Arizona and broken. Including that series, Chicago went 5-10 the rest of the way, and their odds cratered from 58% to zero in five days. Now that’s what I call a genuine September meltdown. Losing the last four games, as the D-backs did? Irrelevant, as the subsequent playoffs proved.

2024. This is the season where I would say there is the best case for a meltdown, and it’s likely where the myth began. Though September as a whole was hardly a disaster, Arizona going 13-13. That, however, perhaps felt like a meltdown after the Diamondbacks went a stellar 35-17 in July and August. With seven games to go, the D-backs were three clear of the Braves. However, they’d lost the tie-breaker. Arizona went 2-5, while the Braves went 5-2, and the rest is history. But four of those games were against the Padres and Brewers, who were ahead of us in the standings. It included a loss by the odd run in nineteen in Milwaukee. A win there and the meltdown myth never gets started. That’s the margin we’re talking about here. Maybe we should be blaming the team which started 4-7 that year, not the one which finished 6-5.

2025. For there to be a “meltdown” in September, I’d say there has to be a significant chance of success there to begin with. But the highest chance of the D-backs making the post-season that month was only 12.3%. The last day it was even twenty percent – still an outside shot – was back on July 19. Sure, as in 2023, they finished the year on a losing streak: five games this time. But also as there, that ignores the good run the Diamondbacks went on immediately before that, winning seven of nine. They’d have needed to go 4-1 thereafter to reach the playoffs, for an overall 11-3 record over the last couple of weeks. Not doing so, going “only” 7-7, is hardly a meltdown.

Why the difference?

What I think is interesting is why some people choose to think the D-backs collapse, when the facts really don’t particularly support that as a narrative. I think part of it is actually a back-handed compliment, in that this is the first time, literally in a generation, where the D-backs have been consistently competitive for several years in a row. Put it this way: nobody cares very much right now about September meltdowns over at Purple Row, despite the Rockies playing 42 points worse after August 31. Below, you’ll see the team’s winning percentage through 136 games, which is there or thereabouts around the end of August (save for 2020, when I used the number through 35 games).

The 2023-26 run is the first time the Diamondbacks has been above .450 (the line highlighted above), through that point in the season, for five consecutive seasons since 2003. It’s the first time in over twenty years where Arizona have had four seasons in a row with meaningful baseball in the second half of this month. We’re not used to having September baseball that matters. Or, at least, it seems to. The reality, of course, is that wins and losses count exactly the same. If you’re looking for a reason why we “backed into the playoffs” in 2023, the 8-16 record of the D-backs in July is a far bigger explanation than anything in September.

Maybe fans remember failure better than success? Just ask Byung-Hyun Kim. Or this season, where we’ve had perpetual complaints about D-backs’ LOBsters. They actually score a higher percentage of baserunners than 23 of the 30 MLB teams. Or demands the Diamondbacks do a better job with a man on third and less than two outs, when only three teams bring those runners home at a higher rate than Arizona. I’m not sure if it’s a result of baseball being a game where a 30% success rate at hitting is considered elite, and 70% of baserunners will be stranded. It goes against studies which have shown team victories tend to be better remembered.

Yet here we are, some recalling meltdowns that barely happened. Of course, some people simply have a narrative to push, e.g. “Torey sucks!“ and will make up whatever history they want to support it.

Conclusions

“My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f___ luck.”
— Billy Beane

The reason he said that is because baseball has the biggest element of random chance in any of the major sports. The difference in the spot where ball meets bat, between a game-ending fly-ball and a game-winning home-run, is so small as to be beyond the bounds of human skill. Sure, some are better at it than others. But even Mark McGwire hit a home-run fewer than every ten at-bats. A baseball game is a series of chaotic and inherently unpredictable events. Over a season of 162 games, less so. But the smaller you shrink that, the greater the odds of something unexpected.

If we presume a 26-game month, there’s a better than even chance that a .500 team will lose at least four games in a row. It’s about a one-in-three chance for a five-game losing streak, so having one is basically meaningless in terms of “proving” anything. The problem is that, when a season comes down to the last few games, you’re basically in “playoffs before the playoffs”. Take 2025, where the D-backs would have needed to win four of the last five games to make it in. At that point, to quote Beane, what happens is “f___ luck”. It’s really not up to Torey very much. And you can expand the principle backwards.

The Diamondbacks are, let’s be honest, not going to compete for the division title any time soon. The Dodgers simply have too many competitive advantages. From having the reigning MVP on their books for $2 million this year, to that Godzilla-sized television contract, alone worth more than all of the D-backs’ revenue streams combined. While the scales of balance have the Dodgers’ thumb pressing down on one side, all we can hope for is to compete for a wild-card spot. And four years in a row, Torey Lovullo has got us there, successfully negotiating the shoals of injury and MarteGate to have the team playing meaningful baseball into late September.

Maybe it’s just me, but realistically, it’s hard to demand anything more.

The Cubs took two of three from the National League East division-leading Braves at Wrigley Field, winning the series. Once again, likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong led the Cubs offense with two home runs and a triple, but as has often been the case this season he’s had company with another teammate having a big game. On Wednesday night that backup act was Alex Bregman who put on an offensive show of his own [VIDEO].

In addition to hitting his 26th bomb of the year, Bregman added a triple and a double on the night. It was just another great night at the ballpark for the 32-year-old third baseman who has a 5 fWAR season in his first year with the Cubs, the first such year for him since 2022. Bregman has really turned a corner since the All Star Break, as you can see from his splits below:

Half	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+
First Half	94	431	9	45	41	2	11.4%	15.3%	.119	.267	.241	.336	.359	.312	.310	97
Second Half	56	250	17	43	47	1	9.6%	13.6%	.318	.294	.305	.384	.623	.427	.340	174

It’s been a pretty big turnaround since mid-July for Bregman and it’s mostly apparent on the power front. You can see that in both the Isolated Slugging (ISO) above but also just in the home run tally with Bregman almost doubling his home run total from the first half in 180 fewer plate appearances. But what really puts these numbers in perspective is the league context. Below you can see the top 15 players in MLB by fWAR since the All Star Break (is it any wonder the Cubs lead the league offensively with three guys in the top 15?):

Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	WAR
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	57	269	23	52	52	13	11.52%	26.02%	.389	.280	.269	.357	.658	.419	.400	169	4.4
Alex Bregman	CHC	56	250	17	43	47	1	9.60%	13.60%	.318	.294	.305	.384	.623	.427	.340	174	3.4
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	57	253	13	44	30	12	12.25%	25.69%	.258	.375	.303	.387	.561	.406	.402	156	3.2
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SDP	55	248	18	45	43	12	10.48%	14.11%	.311	.287	.301	.379	.612	.416	.432	169	3.1
Jackson Merrill	SDP	56	236	15	36	45	7	4.66%	21.19%	.279	.344	.315	.349	.594	.398	.422	157	2.9
Gabriel Moreno	ARI	53	239	9	31	43	2	10.46%	14.23%	.227	.331	.314	.385	.541	.396	.360	151	2.7
Steven Kwan	CLE	54	245	2	40	14	4	13.06%	9.39%	.081	.385	.351	.437	.431	.389	.348	153	2.5
Alejandro Kirk	TOR	46	188	8	15	32	1	11.17%	11.70%	.164	.328	.321	.394	.485	.377	.340	145	2.3
Pete Alonso	BAL	56	246	16	32	37	3	10.98%	22.76%	.259	.326	.292	.386	.552	.401	.424	163	2.2
Ty France	SDP	53	227	9	29	33	0	9.69%	19.38%	.205	.367	.323	.396	.528	.398	.344	157	2.1
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	55	254	9	45	33	2	16.54%	22.05%	.214	.317	.262	.390	.476	.380	.352	143	2.1
Rafael Devers	SFG	52	226	18	39	46	0	13.72%	22.12%	.337	.278	.275	.376	.611	.413	.367	165	2.1
Ezequiel Duran	TEX	56	232	7	28	32	4	8.19%	24.14%	.174	.336	.271	.341	.444	.343	.303	122	2.0
Randy Arozarena	SEA	56	251	14	44	30	4	10.36%	21.12%	.237	.289	.265	.367	.502	.377	.334	151	1.9
Carter Jensen	KCR	52	221	11	32	25	1	14.48%	26.24%	.280	.263	.226	.344	.505	.366	.355	134	1.9

Bregman hasn’t just been good in the second half, he’s been the best hitter in baseball by some metrics. The above chart is sorted by fWAR but if it were resorted by wRC+, a stat that measures hitters run production off a league and park normed baseline of 100, Bregman would rank first, followed by a virtual tie between Fernando Tatis, Jr. and PCA. Bregman is also pacing the field in wOBA, a fancy on-base percentage that gives hitters more credit for extra base hits.

Bregman hasn’t just turned it on in the second half, he’s returned to vintage Bregman. In fact, by the end of 2026 a glance at his slash line will show 2026 as his best season by fWAR since 2022. His process in scrutinizing his at bats and making adjustments is obvious to anyone watching him study the tape in the dugout after an at bat, but if you’re more of a chart type you can also see the adjustment below:

You can see how Bregman’s wOBA and ground ball rate are inversely correlated pretty clearly in this chart. As Bregman has hit the ball in the air more, he’s gotten better production. The results speak for themselves [VIDEO].

It’s a good sign that the Cubs offense has kept rolling as they past the mid-point of September. With nine games left to play, they’ll need Bregman, PCA and Seiya Suzuki to keep setting a torrid pace offensively as they try to out hit their pitching woes down the stretch and into the Wild Card round.

Happy off-day. I don’t know about anyone else, but I am happy to have an off-day.

I am happy we have meaningful baseball to watch in September. If you go back a month or so, I didn’t think we’d get that, so this is a bonus. It would be nice if we could be consistent, but this is the hand we’ve been dealt. When people ask if we are going to make the playoffs, I’ve been saying ‘no’, but I’d be happy to be wrong.

So, what do you think? Do you think the Jays will pull it out? Are you just enjoying the ride? Is it too much of a rollercoaster?

It has been a weird season—so many pitching injuries. We seemed to have too many starters at the start of the season, and now we are having two bullpen days every five. The team seems to be doing its best to be careful with the pitchers, but we have several older pitchers with a lot of innings on their arms. And a handful of young arms who are being pushed harder than they’ve ever been.

And, of course, so many guys not hitting. Too many guys not hitting, starting with Vlad, of course, and going pretty much down the whole roster. Other than Brett Bateman, it seems everyone has had long slumps (and he hasn’t been around long enough to slump). I have said before that I believe in changing hitting coaches every year. Not that it is fair. Not that it is the coach’s fault. And it would be a lousy way of doing business. But I believe players sometimes need to hear things a different way. Even if they are saying the same things, which they pretty much will.

But none of it is the coaching. The coaches didn’t get dumb over the winter.

I said, in the game thread, that I zone out when people try to tell me how easy hitting is. Anyone who thinks it is easy hasn’t watched a curveball with a bat in their hand.

Anyway, what do you think? Will the Jays pull it off and make the playoffs? And are you enjoying the ride? Or is it too much of a rollercoaster?

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MLB Pipeline picked out a ‘breakout prospect’ for each time in the MLB. For the Jays, they picked Nolan Perry:

The 2022 12th-rounder missed the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery and didn’t crack the Jays’ preseason Top 30 list as a result. He looked revitalized after rehab, however, and finished with a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 117 strikeouts over 82 2/3 innings across the Single-A, High-A and Double-A levels, and he jumped into the Top 100 when it became clearer that he had the stuff to back up the results: a 93-95 mph heater with improved velo, two whiff-inducing breakers in a slider and a curveball and an improved offspeed option in his mid-80s splitter.

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And Baseball America has graded all the MLB farm systems. They grade the Jays a B+. Of course they graded nine teams A+, A or A- so maybe they are easy graders.

Even as the major league team has been inconsistent, the Blue Jays have had a very successful year on the farm. They graduated several key contributors to the major league team, including Brandon Valenzuela and Spencer Miles, who have drastically outperformed their prospect rankings. Johnny King and Nolan Perry took major steps forward on the mound, and Sean Keys and Charles McAdoo did at the plate. Ricky Tiedemann also finally returned and reached the majors.

They traded their top prospect Arjun Nimmala, but got back a team-controlled starter. They also boosted their depth, acquiring Dasan Hill from the Twins and Brett Bateman from the Cubs. Bateman has been a revelation and has taken over the leadoff role that they’ve struggled to fill all season. Overall, the good far outweighs the bad with this system, and they are positioning themselves to bounce back in 2027.

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Tomorrow we start the next ‘most important series of the season’. Three games with Texas. I’m thinking a series will would be good and a series loss might be the end of their chances. They have 9 games left. They are a game behind the Rangers, and 1.5 behind the White Sox, 2 games the Guardians. And they need to pass two of those teams.

Tomorrow Dylan Cease starts. Saturday José Soriano. And Monday, some version of Spencer Arrighetti and the bullpen

Any baseball season has its share of ups and downs, but the 2026 Red Sox take the cake for extremes. For today, I want to break down the rollercoaster into three parts, with a particular focus on the last two.

• In the first 78 games of the season, the Red Sox were horrible, going 32-46.
• In their next 37 games, they were historically fantastic, going 32-5.
• However, in their last 37 games, they’ve slipped into a mediocre malaise, going 18-19.

To be fair, these last 37 games come with all sorts of caveats: The first handful are guaranteed to be filled with losses because whenever you divide these things after a hot streak, you always draw the line right where the wins end. The team also seemed to run out of gas a little bit after expending so much energy in July to get back in the race, and then lately, they’ve been resting guys and trying to get things aligned for the playoffs.

But it’s the last caveat that really muddies the waters here. Not only does it obscure how good Boston might have been in September if they had to fight to the finish line, but it also poses a tricky, potentially season ending question if the Sox get this wrong. Can you just turn the magic back on whenever you want?

On one hand, we’ve already gone deep into why the Red Sox are doing the correct thing on paper in punting September thanks to the ridiculous setup MLB has for the postseason structure. However, watching these games every night after the highs of July and August is jarring. That “it” factor, whatever it is — real or perceived — is gone. Maybe it was going away anyway, but now that the Red Sox have turned it off somewhat intentionally by prioritizing rest over results, it feels like watching a hangover.

I guess what I find so uncomfortable and unsatisfying about watching this play out is that in July and August it felt like the Red Sox saved their season, and they very much did. But what does that even mean anymore? Historically, it meant you were going to get a September chock-full of meaningful games. Now, you get a sleepwalk September with a short Wild Card series that may or may not yield a glorious October run. Maybe I’m just getting old, but I don’t like that.

I want urgency in volume, and I’m nervous that after all that work, all that winning, and all those storylines that played out all summer, it’s possible the Red Sox only play two truly meaningful games after Labor Day (Game 1 and 2 in New York on September 29th and 30th). Doesn’t that feel odd?

Now of course, if they win that Wild Card series, it’s awesome! The doors to October truly open and the matchups on paper keep getting more and more favorable until / if they reach the World Series. But man, it’s such a strange dynamic. We could be living in a world where we’ve already seen the last meaningful win of this crazy 2026 Red Sox season weeks ago. Or, we could be living in a world where the last meaningful win of the 2026 Red Sox season is still be weeks away. Bonkers!

The only thing we know for sure is that we’re right in the middle of September, and there’s no urgency as the games click down. Then all at once, twelve days from now, all the urgency will hit at once like a tsunami, and the Red Sox will need to instantly recapture that magic they had all summer. Can they they do that? Can they emerge from this cocoon of complacency all at once? I don’t know.

They’re certainly doing everything they can to load the guns and the set the table for that happen, but I don’t know if you can just flip a switch like that in this sport. With each passing day, it feels more and more like this is either going to work like a dream or be a complete disaster. The magic is either going to regenerate in full force and last well into October, or it already left for good in August. We just don’t know which until we wake up when September ends.