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Rangers 4, Guardians 2

• Another kind of weird win.
• Wyatt Langford on the injured list. Brandon Nimmo out of the lineup with an injury. Corey Seager in the lineup, only to be pinch hit for immediately because he couldn’t get his back loose.
• No problem, right?
• Jacob deGrom did his thing, despite allowing a two run homer to the third batter he faced.
• deGrom has allowed 16 homers this season. 8 of them have come in the first inning.
• Weirdly, he’s allowed 5 homers in the fourth inning.
• But while he has allowed only 6 runs, total, in the fourth inning despite allowing those 5 homers, deGrom has allowed 17 runs in the first inning of games this year. He’s allowed 20 runs in every other inning, total.
• I usually don’t buy the “you have to score runs on Pitcher X early or else you won’t score on him at all” cliche that announcers often use, but in the case of deGrom, it has been true this year.
• deGrom ended up going 7 innings, striking out 9 and not walking anyone. After allowing a Daniel Schneemann single to start the second, he retired the next 17 batters in a row. Schneemann broke the streak with another single and then stole second, which didn’t matter, because deGrom struck out Gabriel Arias to end the inning.
• With those nine strikeouts, deGrom passed Aaron Nola for 103rd on the all time strikeout list, with 1966, though Nola, who is just three Ks behind him, will likely move back ahead of him in Nola’s next start.
• Ahead of deGrom are Kenny Rogers (1968 Ks), Bob Welch (1969), Al Leiter (1974), Livan Hernandez (1976), and then John Clarkson and Ervin Santana (1978).
• Unusually, the Guardians were on deGrom’s slider — he got just 5 whiffs on 21 swings on his slider. However, he was blowing his fastball past them, getting 10 swings and misses on it.
• Peyton Gray and Jacob Latz handled the eighth and ninth, with Latz getting his 18th save of the season, putting him third in the A.L. in saves.
• deGrom going seven innings is also big in terms of getting most of the bullpen a day of rest, though Latz will likely be unavailable for the series finale on Wednesday after pitching two days in a row.
• The lineup, perhaps not surprisingly, didn’t put many baserunners on, but if you hit homers and time those homers well, you don’t necessarily need to have a lot of baserunners.
• Joc Pederson tied things up with a two run homer in the third after Nicky Lopez had singled.
• Josh Jung homered off of Shawn Armstrong in the eighth for the Rangers’ insurance run.
• Incidentally, Armstrong, whose departure caused such angst this offseason, has a 4.74 ERA and 4.73 FIP this year, with his walk rate almost doubling from 2025 and his home run rate more than doubling.
• Armstrong had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 and a 4.38 ERA in 2022, compared to a 2.31 ERA in 2025 and a 1.38 ERA in 2023. Maybe you should just sign him in odd numbered years.
• As for the third run…man, I’m reluctant to even talk about it, due to the secondhand embarrassment.
• Ezequiel Duran singled to start the seventh, and went to second on an Evan Carter U3 grounder that caused much discussion on the broadcast as to whether or not it should have been called a foul ball.
• Alejandro Osuna then hit a routine fly ball to left field. Cooper Ingle, playing in just his fourth major league game, made the catch.
• Then, apparently forgetting how many outs there were, he started trotting in, and threw the ball into the stands.
• That would have been fine if it was, as Ingle apparently thought, the third out. But since it was the second out, throwing the ball in the stands meant that Duran advanced two bases, scoring the go ahead run.
• The Rangers benefited from that play, but even so, I was cringing. I felt bad for Ingle. I was, honestly, relieved when Jung homered — I didn’t want that play to be the difference in the game.
• Ingle ended up striking out to end the game, as well. Honestly, I feel for that dude right now.
• That Osuna fly out was the only at bat the Rangers had with a runner in scoring position in the game. The Guardians had just two — Kyle Manzardo’s home run off of deGrom in the first inning, and the Arias strikeout after Schneemann stole second in the seventh.
• The win keeps the Rangers in first place in the A.L. West, a half game up on Seattle, two games up on Houston, and four games up on that team in Sacramento.
• Jacob deGrom hit 100.5 mph with his fastball, averaging 98.7 mph. Peyton Gray’s fastball topped out at 93.7 mph. Jacob Latz reached 96.4 mph with his fastball.
• Jake Burger had a 108.1 mph groundout. Evan Carter had a 104.0 mph fly out. Joc Pederson’s homer was 102.7 mph off the bat. Josh Jung’s homer was 101.0 mph.
• Nine down, one to go.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Pirates fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

As of this morning, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 43-43. Certainly an improvement over the Bucs teams of years past, but not quite good enough for the MLB Playoffs. They currently sit at 3 games back of a Wild Card spot. What we want to know is if you think the Bucs can battle their way into the Wild Card?

Cast your vote, tell us in the comments, and we’ll be back soon with the results!

Kyle Schwarber has more home runs than anyone else in baseball this season. If you are surprised by this, you are probably also shocked on a daily basis by things like the sky being blue or your stove being hot. It must be nice, one supposes, to have such an vast capacity for wonder.

But even those of us who have a somewhat more reasonable capacity for it can do some wondering. We know that Kyle Schwarber is one of the finest home run hitters of his generation. We know that he strikes fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers, cowardly and superstitious lot that they are. But we do not yet know if he will hit 500 home runs. He currently stands at 370. Someday, in a bittersweet moment that will not be recognized for what it is until it has past, he will hit his last. That is certain. The number assigned to that final round tripper, however, is uncertain.

Today’s question is: Will Kyle Schwarber hit 500 home runs before he retires?

The Orioles keep finding ways to beat themselves. This isn’t a hot take or even a fresh one. The book is out on the Baltimore Orioles. There are several talented players, but they will not beat you with sound baseball. They are the opposite of those pesky teams that play the game the right way and sneak out close wins. They are 6-13 in one-run games.

Still, the woeful American League has kept Baltimore within five games of a playoff spot. The third wild card, paired with a potentially desperate Mike Elias, has kept the concept of competing in 2026 alive. There is enough talent to see an above .500 baseball team if you look through the right lense, but it’s growing more difficult by the day.

I can’t manage an optimistic approach right now, but I can point out that several things need to change if this team is going to get hot in the second half. It feels like a cop-out to just say hit better, pitch better, and play better defense, so here’s my best crack at some changes that the team can implement starting today.

Give up the third catcher

Offensive catchers have been described as a “cheat code.” The Orioles have two of them. Both Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo possess legitimate middle-of-the-order bats, and the team routinely pencils them both into the lineup. It’s a luxury to have one catcher that can handle himself at the dish, but having two is extremely rare. On paper, Baltimore should receive a legitimate boost on day games when other teams are forced to implement a traditionally light-hitting backstop.

The Orioles are currently using an additional roster spot on catcher Chadwick Tromp. The Birds were happy to get Tromp back in the organization with Rutschman on the 7-day IL, and the team elected to keep Tromp over Sam Huff.

It’s easy to understand why the Orioles want to provide Rutschman and Basallo extra rest. Baltimore gave Rutschman a breather last night, but Tromp remained on the bench. Basallo is obviously capable of catching when Rutschman gets the day off, and the team could use the roster spot on the recently optioned Jeremiah Jackson or another position player.

Address the issue at third base

I’ve spend an unhealthy amount of time wondering how a healthy Jordan Westburg could help this team, but he’s not walking through that door. Right now, the Orioles only have Coby Mayo and Blaze Alexander for the hot corner. Mayo’s defensive woes have been well documented, but Alexander recently stepped into the spotlight. Alexander’s late error brought boo’s from the crowd on Monday night, and he holds a -4.2 UZR/150 rating at the position this year.

Coby Mayo was always going to be a bat-first baseball player. The corner infielder holds a .295/.368/.721 slash line against left-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting .148/.215/.235 against the righties. It’s fine if the Orioles want a bad defender on the field because of a 1.089 OPS, but they simply have to stop putting Mayo on the field when facing a right-handed pitcher.

I get that Gunnar Henderson doesn’t want to play third base, but he probably doesn’t want to keep losing games either. The Orioles probably do not trust Jackson Holliday’s defense at shortstop either, but it’s time to try something different. Sliding the two infielders to their right would allow Alexander and a recalled Jackson to split time at second.

If the team really is a buyer, they could strike a deal for a third baseman or a shortstop capable of hitting right-handed pitching. There’s no rule that you have to break the bank for a guy like Matt Chapman or wait until the end of July.

Activate Dean Kremer and keep a five-man rotation

The Orioles have forfeited their buffer when it comes to keeping Trey Gibson in the starting rotation. Gibson has pitched like a rookie that’s still figuring things out, and that’s completely reasonable. Craig Albernaz clearly does not trust the rookie to face opponents a third time through the order, and that’s something that really only comes with time.

Unfortunately, the Orioles are out of time. Gibson could use the reps, and Kyle Bradish could probably use an extra day of rest every once and awhile, but the team needs its best five guys taking the ball every five days. Kremer should return from the injured list this week, and Gibson should probably return to Norfolk’s starting rotation.

On Monday, the wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field at 15 miles per hour on a hot evening. Not a single home run left the yard.

On Tuesday, the wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field at 19 miles per hour on a hot evening, 92 degrees at game time. Nine home runs – five by the Cubs and four by the Padres – headed to the bleachers (and Waveland!). The wind didn’t actually have much to do with it, as only one of the home runs Tuesday was wind-aided. The Cubs outlasted the Padres 9-7 during this home-run festival, their fourth win in a row and 14th in their last 18 games.

The long balls began on the fifth pitch of the game by Matthew Boyd. Fernando Tatis Jr. deposited that baseball on Waveland:

But that’s all the Padres would get in that inning. Boyd set down the next three hitters on just seven pitches.

The Cubs wasted no time getting that run back. With one out, Alex Bregman walked. He was forced at second by Seiya Suzuki, but when Tatis’ throw went into the Padres dugout, Suzuki took second.

Carson Kelly singled in Suzuki [VIDEO].

In the top of the second, Nico Hoerner flashed some glove [VIDEO].

Nico stole a hit from Jackson Merrill and turned it into an out. This is just another example of how good the Cubs defense is.

The Cubs took the lead in the second. With one out, Swanson sent a ball deep into the left-field bleachers [VIDEO].

After that, Kevin Alcántara singled and Pete Crow-Armstrong walked.

Then Alex Bregman launched one [VIDEO].

That was Bregman’s first home run since June 11 and just his second of the month. Maybe, just maybe, this will begin a good run for him.

The Padres made it 5-3 off Matthew Boyd in the third with another long ball, this one a two-run shot by Manny Machado. That could have been more if not for yet another diving play by Nico [VIDEO].

After that, Boyd settled down and didn’t allow any further runs into the sixth. He helped himself out with his own defense to end the fifth [VIDEO].

Meanwhile, the Cubs extended their lead in the bottom of the fifth with more long balls. With one out, Michael Busch hit his 10th [VIDEO].

One out later, Ian Happ singled and Swanson smashed his second home run of the evening [VIDEO].

Swanson had a huge series in New York, didn’t do anything in Milwaukee and now has had two good games against the Padres. Over his last 12 games: .340/373/.830 (16-for-47) with three doubles, a triple, six home runs, 21 (!) RBI, four stolen bases and 12 runs scored. In that span he’s raised his season OPS from .587 to .691.

Boyd allowed two singles leading off the San Diego sixth and was lifted for Javier Assad, who immediately got Xander Bogaerts to hit into a double play, then got another out to end the inning. The Cubs made it 9-3 in the bottom of the inning on PCA’s 18th home run [VIDEO].

Okay, that one needed a bit of help from the wind.

Assad threw a scoreless seventh and then ran out of gas in the eighth. Gavin Sheets smacked a three-run homer and Tatis went deep for the second time to make it 9-7. A walk brought Machado to the plate as the potential tying run. Tyler Ferguson entered the game and struck him out [VIDEO].

The Cubs got two runners on leading off the bottom of the eighth, but could not score.

Ferguson began the ninth inning by getting two fly balls to left. With Merrill coming to bat, Craig Counsell summoned Ryan Rolison to finish things off. It took Rolison just three pitches to get another fly to left to end the game [VIDEO].

For Rolison, it was his first career MLB save. The Cubs have now had 10 different pitchers record saves this year. In addition to Rolison: Daniel Palencia, Jacob Webb, Caleb Thielbar, Colin Rea, Hoby Milner, Ben Brown, Trent Thornton, Jordan Wicks and Corbin Martin. The leader is still Palencia… with three.

About the Cubs’ five-homer game, from BCB’s JohnW53:

The Cubs had hit three home runs in nine of their 85 games this season before this game. This is their first with more than three.

Last year, they hit at least four in 17 games, eight of them at home. Their longest stretch with no more than three was 36 games.

They went 92 games between four-homer ones in 2024, 80 in 2023, 69 in 2022 and 64 in 2021.

Their last game before this one with at least five homers was the one where they set the franchise record of eight, July 4, 2025 against the Cardinals.

Here’s Dansby on his two-homer game [VIDEO].

And here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The Cubs thus finish June on a roll. After a rough start to the month they end it with a 16-10 record, and as noted earlier, a four-game winning streak and a 14-4 run. The Brewers also won Tuesday so the Cubs continue to trail them by 5.5 games in the NL Central.

The Cubs will go for a series sweep over the Padres Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field and it’s supposed to be hot and windy again. Colin Rea will start for the Cubs and Walker Buehler goes for San Diego. Game time is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

The Hall of Fame Indexwas first published in 201o. It had been in the works for nearly a decade at that point. The whole point was to establish a systematic way of looking at Hall of Fame candidates and those already in the Hall of Fame. At its best, it measures fitness for the Hall of Fame and aims to put players into groups with other similar players so we can compare them.

The sequel was published in 2020. It obviously updated numbers for players that were currently active, but also adjusted the formula as we got more information. One of the key things in statistical analysis is that we are always learning something new. The formula is similar to JAWS, but has a couple of key differences. First, it combines baseball-reference.com WAR and Fangraphs.com WAR into one number. I do that for two main reasons. First and foremost, the more data the better in most instances. It gives us a cross-section of what keen sabermetric minds feel about a player.

The second reason is that there is always an intellectual divide on these things. The old formulas included win shares, but since Bill James retired, there is no longer an update on current win shares, so that one has been dropped from the formula. Like JAWS, the index includes a peak value element. However, the peak value is made up of ten seasons. I have gotten push back on this and the push back is perfectly reasonable. I chose ten years because you need to play at least ten years to get into the Hall of Fame and ten years gives you slightly more data than the seven years that JAWS brings.

That is important distinction because I do not profile any players until they have been in the league for at least ten seasons. So, as we compare Alex Bregman to his contemporaries, there are five third baseman that make the list. I will not speak for Jay Jaffe (the creator of JAWS) but the index was never meant to rank order players. It was meant to place players into groups with other similar players so that we can directly compare them using other means. I have done this before with Bregman, but since we are at the midway point of the 2026 season, it is a good time to revisit it.

It’s at this point where I feel the need to reiterate the idea that the index was not meant to rank order players. I would argue that Ramirez is better because he is still trending up where Machado seems to be spinning his wheels, but the numbers by themselves do not prove he is better. They show he is slightly more fit for Cooperstown and that is an important distinction. It is the other tests that will show who is actually better.

As for Bregman, these scores are meant to peg him historically so that we can talk about his career in the proper context. Ironically, he is most similar to another well-known third baseman that finished his career with the Cubs. Ron Cey finished with a higher career value than Bregman, but Bregman is still going. When the dust settles they will probably sit right next to each other and almost look like the same player.

I should point out that Chapman is officially in his tenth season, so anything he does for the remainder of the year will be added to the career and peak value categories. So, he is also close to Bregman in terms of value. If you read the Altuve article, you know we will look at offensive numbers, fielding numbers, MVP voting, and playoff numbers to give us an idea of who might belong and who might not.

Offensive Numbers

I really invite you to read the Altuve article from Monday for a help with the statistical breakdowns. To put it in simple terms, rOBA can be compared to on base percentage and ROV can be compared to batting average. They both include both on base and slugging elements, but in terms of what is good or not good, they are fairly easy to interpret that way. Even without the explanation, we can clearly see that these guys are all fairly similar for the most part.

In a historical context this makes things challenging. How many Hall of Famers should an era have at any one position? If you are the fifth best third baseman from an era are you really a Hall of Famer? That’s a nuanced and difficult question to answer. Each period has strong positions and weak positions. We saw that second base is relatively shallow at the moment. We will see on Friday that shortstop is similar to third base in terms of depth. So far, none of these guys is really distinguishing themselves as above the rest. Ramirez comes closest in some categories, but we will need to look at fielding first.

Fielding Numbers

Perceptive people will notice one thing immediately: Rfield and DRS are basically the same. It’s because they are the same. Why do we include both? BWAR officially bases the fielding part of the formula on Rfield. If you go to Fangraphs, you will see defensive runs saved (DRS), outs above average (OAA), and fielding run value (FRV). Those two numbers are usually lower because they are more recent and have some seasons missing, but also because they are compiled differently. FWAR is built using OAA and FRV and not DRS.

I’ve made no bones about the fact that I refuse to take sides in the debate over which metric is best. All three are designed by people far smarter than me. What we can see in a general sense is that all of these guys are considered to be at least above average with the glove. Arenado and Chapman are clearly head and shoulders above the other three.

Arenado is likely in the finishing stages of his career, so his defensive value will be fairly fixed. Chapman is still close to the prime of his career, so he still could add some value on the back end. Similarly, Ramirez is also closer to his prime, so he could add some value there as well. As an analyst, I would stay these numbers tend to put Arenado’s career in a much different light.

MVP Voting

The MVP points test is important for two reasons. First, it is a different way of expressing peak value. It answers the question of whether a player was ever the best player in the league. According to BWAR, Bregman and Arenado led the league once in BWAR. Neither won an MVP. That spills us into the second reason why this test is valuable. It shows us the difference between how a player was perceived and how he actually performed. Four of the five third basemen here were under-appreciated.

The points are weighted more heavily the higher in the MVP standings you finish. Baseball-reference also does us a solid by enumerating how many times a player finished in the top ten in BWAR. In his landmark book “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame,” Bill James asks a series of questions. Usually it starts with how often you are the best player on your team? How often were you the best player at your position? Were you ever the best player in the league?

Answering no to any of those questions is not an automatic no. For instance, Tony Perez was never the best player on those Big Red Machine Reds teams, but fans and analysts alike would agree they aren’t who they were without him. However, an answer of yes in Bregman and Arenado’s case is a feather in their cap. It is another check mark on a spreadsheet of questions you ask if someone is trying to get into the Hall of Fame.

Postseason Numbers

The spreadsheet motif fits here. I have a hard time taking anyone knocking Arenado based on 35 plate appearances seriously. He does not check the postseason success box. Chapman doesn’t either even those his numbers are not awful. Postseason performance is a function of opportunity and we could say Bregman has made the most of his opportunity. At least we could say he has done more with his opportunity than any of these players did.

Postseason success is a tiebreaker. If you aren’t sure where to go on a player then the success in the playoffs can push him over the top. Bregman is not a borderline Hall of Famer yet. He could be depending on what he does for the next few seasons in Chicago. If he finds his way into the neighborhood where Ramirez, Machado, and Arenado are swimming then his postseason numbers will help considerably.

Alex Bregman is closest to Matt Williams and Larry Gardner historically. Who is Larry Gardner you ask? If you have to ask then that tells you Bregman is not quite there yet. He will likely be close to the likes of Toby Harrah and Josh Donaldson at the end of the season. That’s good, but not quite good enough. If he throws a few more three or four win seasons on the board then we can start talking. Like everything else, it will all depend on how he ages.