MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - MAY 10: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts during the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game Four of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Target Center on May 10, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The disrespect continues for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
After the Timberwolves clawed back to even their Western Conference Semifinals series against the San Antonio Spurs at two games apiece, the latest NBA title odds dropped, and Minnesota somehow ended up with the longest odds of any remotely viable contender left standing. I’m excluding the Lakers who are currently hanging on by a thread against Oklahoma City with odds sitting at a hilarious +60,000 like somebody accidentally left an extra zero on the spreadsheet.
The Wolves are a team that already survived their matchup with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, has now been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals, and has repeatedly punched above its weight in the postseason over the past three years.
And Vegas looked at all that and basically shrugged. The Wolves currently sit at +8,000 to win the NBA title at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs, the exact team Minnesota is currently tied with 2-2, are sitting at +380.
Now, to be fair, nobody is arguing that the Wolves should be favorites. That would be ridiculous. The road in front of them is absolutely brutal. They already had to go through Denver and the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic. Now they’re in a trench war against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. And even if they survive this? Oklahoma City is looming like the final boss.
The Thunder, deservedly, have become the betting darlings of the postseason. They’re sitting at -180, the only remaining team with negative odds, and Vegas is treating them like Thanos after he finally got the last Infinity Stone. OKC is deep, athletic, relentless, and terrifying. Nobody is disputing that.
But +8,000 for Minnesota? That feels absurdly aggressive, especially when you actually look at what this Wolves team has already accomplished and who they’ve accomplished it against. They just eliminated Denver. Again. They beat the Nuggets in the playoffs for the second time in three years. They’ve now won playoff series in three consecutive seasons. They’ve proven repeatedly that when they lock in defensively, they can drag elite teams into ugly rock fights and survive. They split their regular season series with Oklahoma City 2-2. They’ve split this Spurs series down the middle despite being held together by athletic tape, pain tolerance, and whatever mutant healing factor Anthony Edwards apparently stole from Wolverine.
Yet somehow they’re still being treated like a novelty act. It’s funny because we’ve seen this exact cycle before. Nobody believed they could beat Phoenix in 2024. Then the Wolves stomped them into dust. Nobody believed they could beat Denver after dropping three straight games in that same postseason. Then Minnesota marched into Ball Arena and pulled off the largest Game 7 comeback in NBA history. Nobody believed they could survive the injuries against Denver this year after losing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo. Then they closed the Nuggets out anyway behind defense and one of the gutsiest team efforts this franchise has ever produced.
Every time, the Wolves have responded by making the doubters look ridiculous.
That’s part of what makes this current version of the Timberwolves so fascinating. They’re simultaneously battle-tested and doubted. Proven and dismissed. At some point, maybe people should stop acting surprised.
Now, again, let’s be realistic here. The Wolves are not some flawless juggernaut. Their offense can go into deep freezes. Their reliance on three-point shooting can make them look unstoppable one night and borderline unwatchable the next. Anthony Edwards is clearly compromised physically. The backcourt injuries have forced role players into critical minutes. Victor Wembanyama remains to be conquered and SGA is waiting in the wings after that.
There are legitimate reasons why Vegas is hesitant, but +8,000 still feels far from a fair assessment. Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last few postseasons, it’s this: counting out the Wolves is a dangerous hobby. This team has embraced the underdog role. They seem to genuinely enjoy being doubted. The more people pick against them, the more they lean into the “nobody believes in us” identity they’ve built over these playoff runs. Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels turning games into defensive hostage situations. Julius Randle bulldozing people downhill. Naz Reid detonating off the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. becoming a quick step freight train. Mike Conley somehow continuing to outrun Father Time like he found Tom Brady’s avocado ice cream diet. And then there’s Ant, who even without functioning knees still walks around with the confidence of a guy who thinks every arena belongs to him.
All of this matters in playoff basketball. Belief matters. Chemistry matters. Defense absolutely matters.
And if Minnesota survives San Antonio? Suddenly those +8,000 odds start looking a whole lot sillier. Because once you get down to the final four, weird things happen. Injuries happen. Matchups matter. One hot shooting stretch can flip an entire series. One defensive masterpiece can rewrite everything.
So no, Minnesota probably shouldn’t be favored to win the title, but treating them like they’re 20 times less likely than the Spurs to pull it off? If you’re the gambling type and feeling a little reckless, Vegas may have just handed you the basketball equivalent of finding a wallet on the sidewalk.
Because if this Wolves team keeps defending like maniacs, keeps embracing the fight, and keeps making everyone look stupid for doubting them…
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 16: Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians takes a photograph of Jose Ramirez #11 of the Cleveland Indians, Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox, and Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim during All-Star Workout Day at Nationals Park Monday, July 16, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Man, do the Guardians need to figure things out with the Angels coming to town.
The Angels are 16-25, 16th in MLB with a 99 wRC+, 28th in baserunning runs above average at -2.6, 27th in defense at -14.7, 17th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.05 (3.88 FIP), and 28th in bullpen ERA at 5.38 (4.98 FIP).
The Guardians are 21-21, 19th in MLB with a 96 wRC+, 16th in baserunning runs above average at 0.1, 16th in defense at -6.4, eighth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.91 (4.15 FIP), and 16th in bullpen ERA at 3.98 (3.98 FIP).
The Angels have a bad record and look, on paper, like a pretty bad team. Let’s see if the Guardians can take advantage of that… this time, unlike with the Twins.
Matchups: Game One, Monday, 6:10PM: Opener of Brent Suter, LHP 4.05 ERA (4.23 FIP) followed by Alek Manoah, RHP (has thrown 1 inning so far this year) vs. Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.43 ERA (4.41 FIP). Game Two, Tuesday, 6:10PM: Walbert Urena, RHP 3.22 ERA (3.88 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi, RHP 6.15 ERA (5.53 FIP). Game Three, Wednesday, 1:10PM: Reid Detmers, LHP 4.33 ERA (3.09 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP 2.30 ERA (2.82 FIP).
The Angels’ starters Urena and Detemers are actually solid starters. The Guardians need to try to get them out of the game as soon as possible and capitalize on a weak Angels’ pen. It would really help if they can get Manoah out of the game in 2-3 innings tonight and try to tire out the Angels’ relievers for the remainder of the series.
The Angels are led on offense by Mike Trout 158 wRC+, Oswald Peraza 127 wRC+, Vaughn Grissom 119 wRC+, Jorge Soler 115 wRC+, Adam Frazier 105 wRC+ and Zach Neto 104 wRC+. STEPHEN VOGT – DON’T LET MIKE TROUT BE THE ONE WHO BEATS YOU IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. GO AFTER EVERY OTHER HITTER IN THIS LINEUP BUT TROUT.
The Guardians are led by Chase DeLauter 152 wRC+, David Fry 133 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 132 wRC+, Austin Hedges 120 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 115 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 110 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 106 wRC+ and Rhys Hoskins 101 wRC+. Let’s see if we can get Kyle Manzardo to crack 75 wRC+ by the end of this series, huh?
The NBA has completed a review of Victor Wembanyama's flagrant 2 penalty for an elbow to the neck of Naz Reid and subsequent ejection, and has decided not to proceed with further discipline — no suspension or fine is coming, something first reported by Shams Charania at ESPN and confirmed by NBC Sports.
Wembanyama was ejected in the second quarter of Game 2 after he battled with Reid for a rebound and, after securing the ball, threw an elbow that hit Reid in the neck. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson stuck up for his star after the game, including saying of a suspension, "There was zero intent … I think it would be ridiculous." He then went on to say that teams are intentionally very physical with Wembanyama to throw him off his game, and that the Frenchman is allowed to defend himself.
"At some point, he's going to have to protect himself. We've been asking (the officials) to do that now for a while... the lack of protection is really disappointing. At some level, it's starting to get actually disgusting."
Despite the feelings in Minnesota, a suspension was never likely — postseason suspensions are based on a points system counting flagrant fouls, and Wemby isn't close to that mark. This Flagrant 2 gives Wemby two points, but it takes four (another Flagrant 2 or two Fragrant 1 fouls) for him to get there. This is similar to why Nikola Jokic did not come close to a suspension after an altercation and ejection in the first round. (For clarification, flagrant foul points and technical foul points are counted separately, but both can lead to a suspension.) Also, Wembanyama does not have the lengthy history of incidents like this compared to someone such as Draymond Green (despite what Green thinks).
However, no fine for Wembanyama was more of a surprise to many around the league, but was there a reasonable fine the league could have levied that would have been a deterrent in the future? The prospect of a possible future suspension is the real deterrent.
Behind a strong finish from Anthony Edwards and some key late plays from Ayo Dosunmu, the Timberwolves came back on the Spurs to win Game 4, 114-109, to even the series 2-2. Game 5 is Tuesday night in San Antonio at 8 ET, you can watch it on NBC or stream it on Peacock.
The Yankees (26-15) and the Orioles (18-23) open a three-game series at Camden Yards beginning tonight.
New York enters after being swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee over the weekend. Despite the three straight losses and falling a game behind Tampa in the AL East, the Yankees remain the team to beat in the American League. Powered by Aaron Judge (MLB-best 16 HRs) and Cody Bellinger (.444 average in May), New York carries an AL-best run differential of +73 into the game tonight.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have the worst run differential in the American League (-41). They have lost three of their last four. They sit nine games behind Tampa in the AL East. Gunnar Henderson is hitting .211 and Pete Alonso just .214. Those numbers are at the foundation of their issues.
On the mound, the Yankees hand the ball tonight to Ryan Weathers, a left-hander who has quietly become a reliable rotation piece for New York. He brings a 3.03 ERA and strong strikeout numbers (45 in 38.2 innings) into the matchup. The southpaw has already handled Baltimore earlier this month in the Bronx. The Orioles counter with Brandon Young (3-1, 4.35 ERA), a right-hander who has shown flashes of potential, but who has been consistently inconsistent through four starts on the season.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Orioles
Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
Time: 6:35PM EST
Site: Camden Yards
City: Baltimore, MD
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, YES, MASN
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The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Orioles
The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-156), Baltimore Orioles (+129)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+104), Orioles +1.5 (-126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers: Yankees vs. Orioles
Pitching matchup for May 11:
Yankees: Ryan Weathers Season Totals: 38.2 IP, 2-2, 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 45K, 10 BB
Orioles: Brandon Young Season Totals: 20.2 IP, 3-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 14K, 8 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Orioles
Pete Alonso was 1-12 (1 HR) against the A’s this past weekend
Leody Tavares is 6-27 (.222) in May
Cody Bellinger has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games (18-44)
Ben Rice is hitless in his last 13 ABs
Jose Caballero was 3-9 over the weekend against the Brewers
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Orioles
The Yankees are 12-9 on the road this season
The O’s are 10-11 at home this season
The Yankees are 23-18 on the Run Line this season
The Orioles are 18-23 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 26 times in Orioles’ games this season (26-15)
The OVER has cashed 18 times for the Yankees this season (18-21-2)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Orioles
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Orioles:
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It’s May, and the Boston Red Sox have a Trevor Story problem. Sound familiar?
Story’s early-season struggles were a hot topic last year, when he hit just .138 (20-for-145) with 49 strikeouts over a 38-game span from April 22 to June 6. The brutal slump sparked debate over whether Boston should designate Story for assignment despite owing him more than $50 million.
But the Red Sox stayed patient with the veteran, and he rewarded them by becoming one of the league’s most productive shortstops from June 7 onward. Story posted an .827 OPS over the final four months of the season and finished with a team-high 25 homers and 96 RBI.
It’s been déjà vu through Story’s first 38 games of 2026. The 33-year-old is hitting .200 (31-for-155) with 55 strikeouts and a .520 OPS. He can’t hang his hat on his defense either, as he has the third-most errors among MLB shortstops (five) with -1 Outs Above Average.
Again, the Red Sox face a difficult decision about Story’s future with the club, but he believes he can turn it around as he did in 2025.
“I mean, I think if you know exactly what it was, you could kind of fix it right away,” Story said of his struggles, per The Boston Globe. “But that’s not baseball. And there’s a lot that goes into it, physically, mentally, and effort-wise. I know that was a big one for me last year, and I think it’s just a matter of time before I get it right.”
“It’s tough to go through in the moment, but I have confidence that I can do it because I’ve done it before,” he added. “Takes one game, takes one pitch. And I’m always optimistic about it. I’m not gonna sit here and pout about it. I’m not gonna sit here and feel sorry for myself.”
So, should Boston stay the course and bet on another Story bounce-back, or is it time to make a major move? Below, we’ll weigh all the options with Story and share our take on how the Red Sox should proceed:
Option 1: Designate for assignment
Just like last year, many have grown impatient with Story and are clamoring for him to be DFA’d. While it might seem like the easiest solution, it’s hard to imagine the organization eating the $50 million remaining on his contract, especially given how he snapped out of his 2025 funk.
If Story is DFA’d, and he goes on to post an .800-plus OPS the rest of the season with another club, it will give fans yet another reason to lambast the Red Sox front office. He may give Craig Breslow & Co. no choice if this slump extends well into the summer, but now is too soon to pull the trigger. Story has earned additional time to figure it out.
Option 2: Trade in a salary dump
With a hefty contract and poor early-season numbers, Story’s trade value is at its absolute lowest. If the Red Sox look to trade him, it would likely be in an attempt to dump a good chunk of the $50M remaining on his deal, meaning they won’t get much of anything in return.
Perhaps there’s a club desperate for infield help that’s willing to take a chance on a struggling, high-upside veteran. Still, Story’s price tag makes such a move unlikely.
Option 3: Bench
Benching Story would be understandable, as he’s been a liability at the plate and hasn’t provided much value defensively. Perhaps that’s the kind of reset he needs, and he could look to regain form while Andruw Monasterio takes over as the starting shortstop.
That said, it seems doubtful that the club will sit its veteran leader, especially since he’s far from the only Sox player with awful offensive numbers.
Option 4: Move to second base and/or drop in the lineup
Story’s status as a veteran leader on an expensive contract is the only reason he remains a middle-of-the-lineup, everyday shortstop. Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora moved him down in the order earlier in the season, but Chad Tracy has put him in the fourth or fifth spot since taking over as interim skipper.
While the offense as a whole has been a massive disappointment, continuing to plug Story into the middle of the lineup is not a winning strategy. Moving him back down in the order while potentially switching him to second base, where there would be less pressure on him defensively, could help him get back on track.
Option 5: Stand pat and hope for the best
Story and the Red Sox seem convinced that another bounce-back is right around the corner. We wouldn’t be surprised if Option 5 is the organization’s pick, but if so, they’re playing with fire.
As of Monday, Boston owns the third-worst record in the American League at 17-23. The good news? The club is remarkably only 2.0 games back of a Wild Card spot, but it has to start stringing some wins together to stay in the mix. Sticking with this version of Story without making adjustments only hurts the Red Sox’ chances of doing just that.
Our pick: Option 4
DFA’ing Story would be a drastic move at this stage, though it’s fair to revisit the conversation if his struggles extend into mid-summer.
Heading into the upcoming series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Red Sox should move Story down in the lineup and consider a position switch. The latter seems less likely, as the organization has shied away from playing Marcelo Mayer at shortstop, but it has to be considered. If Mayer isn’t moved to short, Monasterio could take that spot while Story and Mayer platoon at second.
If those adjustments still don’t solve the issue, Option 3 comes into play. Options 1 and 2 will be on the table if Story can’t turn things around in June.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - MAY 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on during the first quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game Four of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Target Center on May 10, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As expected, the NBA will not be taking any further action against Victor Wembanyama after he was ejected from Game 4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves for elbowing Naz Reid in the throat area, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.
There will be no further discipline for Spurs star Victor Wembanyama after he was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in Minnesota on Sunday night, sources tell ESPN. No suspension, no fine. Wembanyama will play in Game 5 against the Timberwolves on Tuesday night in San Antonio. pic.twitter.com/GOGCbIcbQP
The incident occurred with 8:39 left in the second quarter, after Wemby had grabbed an offensive rebound, and Reid and Jaden McDaniels were swiping and draped all over him. Wemby then swung his elbow and hit Reid in the throat, and after video review, head referee Zach Zarba determined that the three key points of intent, wind-up and follow-through were met to meet the criteria of a Flagrant 2 foul, resulting in him being ejected from the game for the first time in his NBA career.
While making it clear that he did not justify the play itself, head coach Mitch Johnson had Wemby’s back after the game, stating his frustration with the officiating and how the amount of contact and physicality players are allowed to get away with on him led up to this point, perhaps at the risk of his own fine.
“Just the amount of physicality that people play with him, at some level, you have to protect yourself. Every single play on every single part of the floor, people are trying to impose their physicality on you. He’s gotten pushed down in transition, running freely. We don’t complain because we’re just going to play. We don’t really give a s—. But at some stage, he should be protected. If not, he’s going to have to protect himself, and unfortunately, stuff like that happens.
“It’s starting to get disgusting in terms of when he tries to fight through things, be professional and mature and deal with some of that stuff. I’m glad he took matters into his own hands. Not in terms of hitting Naz Reid, but he’s going to have to protect himself if they’re not. And I think it’s disgusting.”
Wemby reportedly had words of encouragement for his teammates at halftime, and to the Spurs’ credit, they didn’t fold or give up on the game without their star center (despite Carmelo Anthony’s idiotic suggestion that they should during NBC’s halftime show — perhaps that mindset is an insight into why he never even made the finals himself). Instead, they weathered the initial storm and rode their star guards to a 9-point second-half lead before what felt like an inevitable Anthony Edwards fourth-quarter storm, and they didn’t have quite enough time recover, resulting in a 109-114 loss with the series tied at 2-2.
The good news is Wemby will be available for Game 5 after avoiding suspension. That shouldn’t be a surprise considering it was a pretty standard flagrant 2 (or at least as standard as a flagrant 2 can be) without anything extra, plus we already saw Nikola Jokic attempt to throw a punch against this same team in the last round with no suspension, as well as several far more egregious fouls that didn’t lead to suspension, although Wemby will have to pay the mandatory fine of $2,000 that comes with a flagrant 2. His case is likely also helped by the fact that has no prior history of such acts (unlike Draymond Green or Isaiah Stewart, whom we’ve seen receive “repeat offender” suspensions in the past).
Speaking of Green, one thing that likely won’t impact Wemby but he will have to keep in mind is the NBA’s technical counter, which can lead to a player being suspended after accumulating 7 points in the playoffs, with 2 points for Flagrant 2’s and one point for Flagrant 1’s or technical fouls. While it is extremely unlikely he will reach 7 points, hopefully this is still something he learns and grows from.
The series will resume on Tuesday in San Antonio. Thanks to the Knicks sweeping the 76ers, there is no double-header to contend with, so tip-off will be at the preferred time of 7:00 PM CT (instead 8:30) on NBC and Peacock. (Game 6 may be another story, depending on if Cleveland vs. Detroit reaches a Game 6, but at least that’s on Friday.)
HOUSTON, TX - MAY 04: Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) gets high fives from teammates after scoring a run in the bottom of the first inning during the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros on May 4, 2026 at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Mariners took another two steps backwards over the weekend after such a promising start to their week last week. The 12-run outburst on Friday was very good to see but to follow that up by scoring two runs total over the final two games in Chicago was a huge let down. It feels like I write this same bit every week, but the uninspired play across the entire American League means Seattle isn’t really in too much trouble despite its struggles. The M’s are still the favorite to win the division and currently have the third highest playoff odds in the AL. The last time the Mariners faced the Astros, the vibes were in the toilet following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers. Seattle responded by sweeping Houston in four games. The team is in need of some of that schadenfreude this week.
Nothing has gone right for the Astros this year. They’ve been decimated by injuries and have limped along at the bottom of the AL West standings for nearly the entire season. Carlos Correa was the latest star to succumb to a significant injury; he injured his ankle last week and will be out for the season. He joins 14 other players on the IL, the most of any team in the majors. While the lineup hasn’t really been affected by all these absences yet, the pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader are all working through significant injuries and six other pitchers have been sidelined with minor maladies.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Jose Altuve
2B
R
163
19.0%
10.4%
0.132
99
Yordan Alvarez
DH
L
180
14.4%
13.3%
0.325
188
Isaac Paredes
3B
R
148
16.2%
9.5%
0.124
111
Christian Walker
1B
R
167
18.0%
9.0%
0.242
143
Cam Smith
RF
R
158
27.8%
10.1%
0.131
83
Zach Cole (MiLB)
LF
L
37
27.0%
18.9%
0.310
138
Brice Matthews
CF
R
95
33.7%
8.4%
0.212
93
Braden Shewmake
SS
L
21
14.3%
0.0%
0.450
218
Christian Vázquez
C
R
74
18.9%
8.1%
0.194
130
The lone bright spot for the Astros has been their offense. They’ve scored the second most runs in the AL and it doesn’t seem like a fluke. Yordan Alvarez has been one of the best hitters in baseball so far, running a career-high 188 wRC+. Christian Walker has also bounced back after a rough first season in Houston last year; he’s blasted nine home runs this year and is sporting a 143 wRC+. Even though the injury bug has hit the lineup hard, Houston has found enough depth to cover for its absences. Isaac Paredes has looked solid covering third base while Correa was covering shortstop for the injured Jeremy Peña and Brice Matthews and Zach Cole have been solid in the outfield while Jake Meyers and Joey Loperfido have been sidelined.
After struggling to make much of an impact with the Rockies to start his career, Peter Lambert signed a one-year deal with the Yakult Swallows of NPB last year. He didn’t exactly excel, but he showed enough promise outside the oppressive environment in Colorado to earn a minor league deal with the Astros this offseason. He’s been pressed into service thanks to all the injuries Houston has dealt with and he’s looked pretty solid across four starts this year. He developed a straight cutter in Japan and that pitch has been a solid addition to his repertoire. He’s also got an excellent changeup to round out his deep arsenal.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Tatsuya Imai (2025-NPB)
163.2
27.8%
7.0%
4.6%
48.3%
1.92
2.01
Bryan Woo
47
20.3%
4.3%
8.2%
30.9%
4.02
3.81
From a previous series preview:
The Astros emerged as the surprising suitors for Tatsuya Imai this offseason, signing him to a three-year deal well below what many were expecting. Perhaps his contract fell short because it’s really hard to figure out his arsenal. There were plenty of questions about how his fastball would play against MLB batters and pitch models had a terrible time trying to figure out his slider. That breaking ball is unique to say the least. The pitch has the least amount of horizontal movement of any slider thrown in the majors, and depending on how he locates it, it can look like a screwball at times. The heater has looked really good too, benefitting from a low arm slot and a lot of cutting action. Imai will also pepper in a splitter, changeup, and curveball to round out his pitch mix, but the fastball and slider are the two primary weapons.
Imai couldn’t work out of the first inning in his last start against the Mariners, walking four and allowing a single hit in just 0.1 innings of work. He was placed on the IL with general fatigue after that start in Seattle and will be activated from that list to make a start on Tuesday.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Lance McCullers Jr.
34
25.0%
13.5%
16.1%
42.7%
7.41
4.81
Bryce Miller (2025)
90.1
18.9%
8.7%
15.5%
37.9%
5.68
5.17
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
3.3%
6.5%
91.9
Sinker
57.1%
13.5%
91.4
91
100
177
0.349
Cutter
13.7%
40.6%
89.1
94
87
106
0.368
Changeup
16.5%
14.5%
85.5
83
Curveball
9.3%
24.9%
81.6
106
151
66
0.323
Sweeper
35.7%
10.5%
82.3
117
92
76
0.310
From a previous series preview:
Lance McCullers Jr. finally got back on the big league mound last season after missing more than two years following elbow surgery back in 2023. It wasn’t an easy return to his previous form. He struggled with his command throughout the season and his velocity was down two ticks across the board from where he was sitting way back in ‘22. His pitch mix looked a lot different too, with his sweeper taking the place of his trademark curveball as his preferred breaking ball. Command is usually the last skill to return after major elbow surgery and he’s now three years removed from that procedure. I’m not sure we’ll ever see peak McCullers again, but he’s got the deep repertoire and experience to be a solid starter as long as his health holds up.
The Mariners scored six runs off McCullers in that series in Seattle; he pitched 4.1 innings allowing five hits and two walks.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Mike Burrows
44.2
21.6%
7.2%
14.3%
37.8%
5.04
4.65
Luis Castillo
38.1
20.8%
7.3%
12.0%
34.1%
6.57
4.56
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
21.6%
33.9%
95.0
100
51
88
0.403
Sinker
24.3%
5.4%
94.6
97
78
94
0.380
Changeup
16.4%
34.2%
87.1
86
118
140
0.250
Curveball
16.4%
14.0%
79.7
97
119
66
0.271
Slider
21.3%
12.5%
89.8
95
88
80
0.250
From a previous series preview:
The Astros acquired Mike Burrows in a three-team trade involving the Rays and Pirates this offseason. He was surprisingly solid for Pittsburgh in his first full season in the big leagues, even as he was overshadowed by some of the bigger name pitching prospects that were coming up through their system. Those same prospects gave the Pirates a surplus to deal from and Burrows ended up in Houston. He throws relatively hard and has a plus changeup to keep batters from sitting on his heater. That offspeed pitch is his go-to swing and miss pitch too, though he has a pair of above average breaking balls as well. Because the Pirates treat their pitching prospects so carefully, most of Burrows’s work came in four- or five-inning stints. He’ll need to prove he can work through an opposing lineup a third time to really take a step forward in his development.
Burrows is coming off his best start of the season, a scoreless seven-inning gem against the Reds. In his previous start against the Mariners, he allowed six runs on 11 hits and a walk in six innings of work.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Athletics
21-19
0.525
-6
L-W-W-W-L
Rangers
19-21
0.475
2.0
-3
W-L-L-W-W
Mariners
19-22
0.463
2.5
+2
L-W-W-L-L
Angels
16-25
0.390
5.5
-24
W-W-L-L-W
Astros
16-25
0.390
5.5
-34
W-L-W-L-L
The Athletics maintained their grip on the top of the AL West standings, winning their weekend series against the Orioles. They return home this week to take on the Cardinals. The Rangers managed to quiet the red hot Cubs over the weekend, holding them scoreless across both games on Saturday and Sunday. Texas hosts the Diamondbacks to start this week.
The San Jose Sharks need to sign prospect Carson Wetsch to an entry-level contract this month, or the 20-year-old winger will be eligible to re-enter the NHL Draft in June.
The Sharks drafted Wetsch, who was then playing for the Calgary Hitmen of the Western Hockey League, in the third round of the 2024 NHL Draft. In his draft year, he scored 25 goals and 50 points in 67 games for the Hitmen. The following season, his goal-scoring ability took a step forward, as he scored 33 goals, but his overall point total barely rose, as he finished the 2024-25 season with 53 points.
In May of 2025, Wetsch was dealt to the Kelowna Rockets and was named their captain for the 2025-26 season. Overall, his offensive production hit new heights in Kelowna, but his goal scoring took a hit. He finished the season with 72 points in 65 games, but only scored 22 goals, the lowest total since he was drafted by the Sharks.
As a 2024 draftee who is still playing in Major Junior, Wetsch meets the criteria to re-enter the draft this summer unless he either signs an entry-level contract with the Sharks, or commits to an NCAA team.
"He’s a high-motor, high-effort, connective, physical player," Elite Prospects scout Daniel Gee wrote in February. "A lot of Wetsch’s best work comes below the goal line, chopping, crashing, and jousting for inside positions for second-chance offence."
"More forecheck and inside-driven than most WHL forwards, he plays a smart, low-risk game that doesn’t always generate highlight-reel moments but tends to produce results," Dobber Prospects' Ryan Downey added. "The 75 penalty minutes add some banger value on top of the offensive production."
If he reaches his potential, Wetsch projects as a bottom-six forward in the NHL, but it will likely take some time for him to get there. He'd be a beneficial addition to the San Jose Barracuda in the near future, at the very least.
PORT CHARLOTTE, FL - MARCH 18: Caden Bodine (18) of the Tampa Bay Rays runs after a hit during a minor league spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles on March 18, 2026 at Charlotte Sports Park in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This was the 5th week of full minor league play (stats are entering play on Monday, May 11th).
According to FanGraphs (which factors in age and proximity to the big leagues), 19-year old Caden Bodine has regained his spot as the top hitter spot in the Rays system. The backstop is proving to be too advanced for Single-A as he was hitting .411 entering play on Sunday. After a zero hit performance though, he has dropped to .397/.442/.629 with 4 HR, registering a 184 wRC+ over 131 plate appearances..
Meanwhile, Aidan Cremarosa is still the team’s top minor league pitcher and among the top performers in all of minor league baseball. The 22-year old was taken by the Rays in the 8th round of the 2025 draft out of Fresno State. Thus far over six starts in Single-A, Cremarosa has a 2.38 ERA | 2.01 FIP with a 38.3 K% & 3.9 BB% over 34 IP. Most recently, Cremarosa completed a complete game no-hitter, a rarity in Rays organizational history.
RUMBLINGS
RHP TJ Nichols began a rehab assignment with the FCL Rays
INF Andreimi Antunez, a 2024 international signing, had quite the day on Friday. He was 4-6 on the day and homered twice in the first inning, including a grand slam. Overall he had the 2 homeruns, 2 doubles, and 10 RBI.
Baseball America has also updated their top 100 prospect rankings, the Rays have players make the cut (this is a huge shake up, so I will not be updating the top 10 prospects futher below until Baseball America fully updates their rankings).
36. Theo Gillen
55. Brody Hopkins
91. Nathan Flewelling
95. Caden Bodine
97. Cooper Flemming
TEAM LEADERS
Must currently be assigned to that team
Baseball America’s top ten prospects are featured below each team they’re currently assigned to.
(minimum of 60 TBF & PA)
Tampa Bay Rays
Top 10 Prospects
None currently on active roster
Durham Bulls
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .323, Victor Mesa Jr (hasn’t played since 4/15) OBP: .417, Victor Mesa Jr (hasn’t played since 4/15) SLG: .565, Victor Mesa Jr (hasn’t played since 4/15) HR: 5,Blake Sabol & Dom Keegan wRC+: 153, Victor Mesa Jr (hasn’t played since 4/15) SB: 17, Jacob Melton (Placed on the IL on 4/23)
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 1.62, Kodi Whitley FIP: 3.01, Kodi Whitley & Trevor Martin K%: 40.0%, Joe Rock BB%: 6.3%, Kodi Whitley WHIP: 0.90, Kodi Whitley AVG: .135, Evan Reifert WHIFF%: 15.9%, Joe Rock
4/23: Suffered sprained ankle. Expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Montgomery Biscuits
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .341, Cooper Kinney (promoted to AAA on 5/5) OBP: .440, Xavier Isaac SLG: .605, Xavier Isaac HR: 8, Xavier Isaac wRC+: 170, Xavier Isaac SB: 21, Austin Overn
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 1.71, Michael Forret FIP: 2.60, Alexander Alberto K%: 33.3%, Alexander Alberto BB%: 4.4%, Hayden Snelsire WHIP 0.76, Hayden Snelsire AVG: .157, Michael Forret WHIFF%: 16.1%, Hayden Snelsire
Team Offensive Leaders: AVG: .309, Nathan Flewelling OBP: .471, Tony Santa Maria SLG: .610, Theo Gillen HR: 8, Connor Hujsak wRC+: 156, Theo Gillen SB: 15, Tony Santa Maria
Team Pitching Leaders: ERA: 1.72, Jacob Kmatz FIP: 1.87, Jacob Kmatz K%: 41.0%, Jacob Kmatz BB%: 4.9%, Jacob Kmatz WHIP: 0.83, Jacob Kmatz AVG: .172, Jacob Kmatz WHIFF%: 17.7%, Jacob Kmatz
Justin Foscue (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Are these two teams evenly matched?
Historically, yes. When these two teams met in the regular season, the Rangers won 32 games and the Diamondbacks won 31 games. Against all teams, they were nearly equal in runs scored per game (4.5 vs 4.6) and runs allowed per game (4.7 vs 4.6).
Last Season, perhaps not. When these teams met in the regular season, the Diamondbacks won more games (4 vs 2). Against all teams, the Diamondbacks had more runs scored per game (4.9 vs 4.2), while allowing more runs allowed (4.8 vs 3.7).
This Season, probably not. As of 7 May, four websites projected more wins for the Rangers. The Ranger projections range between 81.0 and 86.4 wins. The Diamondbacks projections are tightly bunched (79.4 to 80.3 wins).
In May, both teams are on a cold streak. In May, in games through 8 May, the Rangers lost 5 games out of 7, while the Diamondbacks lost 6 games out of 7. Whichever team loses the three game series may need their players to do a mental reset.
Which Ranger player will be at second base?
Each player is barely 27 years old, although this season is Duran’s fifth in the Majors. Ezequiel Duran has recently been on a hot streak (OPS of .976 in the 14 days through 6 May). However, on 7 May, the recently called up Justin Foscue played second base and Duran played left field.
Pitching Matchups.
Monday, 5:05 PM MST.
Michael Soroka. In his latest start, pitching against the Pirates, with some help by excellent Diamondbacks defenders he allowed only 1 earned run in 6.1 innings pitched. The only Diamondbacks starter with a better ERA is Eduardo Rodriguez.
Nathan Eovaldi. In his latest start, pitching against the Yankees, he allowed only 1 earned run in 8 innings pitched. Of the five Rangers starters, only Jacob deGrom has a better ERA.
This matchup of starting pitchers is even.
Tuesday, 5:05 PM MST.
Zac Gallen.On 25 April, a comeback hit his shoulder. Before that incident, this season he started 6 games with an ERA of 3.14. After that day, he started two games. He allowed a total of 10 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched. How long until he returns to his earlier pitching prowess?
MacKenzie Gore. In his latest start, pitching against the Yankees, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched.
This matchup of starting pitchers is even, but with some unpredictability.
Wednesday, 5:05 PM MST.
Ryne Nelson. He has pitched well this season except for 2 games in April. In May, he allowed 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched.
Kumar Rocker. Although he pitched well in April, in May he allowed 8 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
May 7, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (13) reacts to hitting a two-run home run as he crosses home plate during the ninth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
I do my best to try and avoid ever thinking about the Tampa Bay Rays, but they have forced themselves upon my attention with some excellent play across the season’s first quarter. I’m writing this as Logan Henderson delivers his first pitch to Trent Grisham, and Tampa’s .658 winning percentage has them nominally atop the AL East, with two games in hand over the Yankees.
It’s a little rudimentary in 2026 to immediately look at run differential, but the Yankees should have an extra win with their strong +74, even after a weekend with strong Milwaukee pitching, and the Rays should be six games back of them with just a +17 differential. By BaseRuns, which intends to neutralize sequencing, the difference is more stark, indicating that the Yankees should have a seven-game lead in the East.
But of course there’s what should have happened and what has actually happened, and the Rays have banked those additional five or six wins early. A good chunk of those wins have come on two fronts: home field advantage, and one-run games. The club is 14-4 at the Tropicana House of Horrors, and while that .778 winning percentage will not hold up through August and September, the Rays have always felt an outsized impact of their home cooking.
The last season they played in Tropicana, 2024, the Rays were not a good team, finishing 80-82. They were a paltry .469 team on the road, and 50 basis points better than that at home. In 2023, a much stronger Rays team before a couple tough seasons, they were nearly a hundred basis points better when sleeping in their own beds. I think the 2026 Rays team is better than the squad we’ve seen in the past two years, but probably not a 92-win side. The Curse of the Trop is likely to continue into the summer, but they’ll win less than three-quarters of their remaining home games.
The one-run game phenomenon is a little harder to project out. One-run games are a product of sequencing and bullpen performance, both of which can be extremely volatile over the course of the season. A groundball to the right side after a leadoff double puts you in a great position to push a run across, but that same groundball to the right side when you yourself lead off an inning objectively hurts your chances at scoring. This is the problem that BaseRuns attempts to solve for: the compelling variable is that a batter hit a ground ball to the right side, which generally speaking does not create a lot of runs. This kind of volatility, where the outcome is dependent on a pre-established context, usually means that this stuff balances out over a season.
What’s more interesting is that the Rays don’t really have a particularly strong bullpen — 15th in baseball by ERA, 21st by FIP, 19th by K-BB rate. This is something the club could fix on the trade market, but between the unpredictability of sequencing and the fact the relief corps at present doesn’t frighten me, that 8-1 record in one-run games should start to close up a little bit.
Of course all of this is subject to devil magic, and it’s been a little while since we saw good old classic Tampa Bay Devil Magic. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and the Rays can employ sorcery for longer than it takes for randomness to normalize. The Yankees looked perhaps the worst they’ve looked all year when they played Tampa, of course down at Tropicana, and keeping an eye on the devil magic meter will remain a concern all summer.
The Cubs were the hottest team in baseball for most of the past week, winning their first five games of the week against the Reds and Rangers, the last five of their second 10-game winning streak of the year, which also extended their home winning streak to 15 (and an 18-5 record at Wrigley Field in 2026).
Then, clunk… no runs scored at all over the last two games.
Still, it was a successful week, all things considered. Here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs over the past week.
Three up
Michael Conforto has found his role
Conforto hadn’t played much since he filled in for Seiya Suzuki while the latter was out for the first 12 games of the season.
But Craig Counsell gave Conforto some playing time against the Reds and Rangers and his bat came alive. He batted .500/.588/1.143 (7-for-14) with three doubles and two home runs.
Busch got off to a terrible start this year, but lately he has been hitting like the guy who hit 34 home runs for the Cubs a year ago.
For the week, Busch batted .348/.500/.500 (8-for-23) with a double, a home run, six RBI and seven walks. And since he bottomed out with a .377 (!) OPS after the game of April 11, Busch is batting .302/.414/.479 (29-for-96) with six doubles, a triple, three home runs, 17 walks and 21 RBI in 26 games, one of the biggest reasons the Cubs are 21-5 in those games.
Imanaga is flashing the form that got him an All-Star selection and fifth place in Cy Young voting in 2024. It seems clear that he had never fully recovered last year from the hamstring injury. Now 100 percent healthy, Imanaga has a 28.3 percent strikeout rate and just a 7.0 percent walk rate.
He’s also getting tons of swing-and-miss. ranking seventh in MLB with a 32.8 percent whiff rate, which is notable given that Shōta doesn’t throw 95+ like everyone else on the list ahead of him.
Honorable mention to Ben Brown for his four no-hit innings against the Rangers on Friday.
Three down
What is going on with Alex Bregman?
Sometimes Bregman hits for a while — .333 /.400/.456 for a 13-game span from April 11-24.
And then he doesn’t — .174/.296/.217 (4-for-23) over the past week, though with four walks. His .328 season OBP does provide some value, but he’s got just five doubles, a triple and three home runs in 159 at-bats. That’s not the guy the Cubs thought they were getting.
Craig Counsell gave Bregman Sunday off. Hopefully the extra day will help him reset.
The Cubs DH/catcher (mostly DH) started the season out hot, so much so that it was hard to remember that he’s just 22 years old.
The league appears to have adjusted to him. He was 0-for-16 over the week and Sunday, he struck out three times (okay, so those were all by Jacob deGrom, a very tough pitcher).
Ballesteros can hit, no question about it. But he will now also have to make adjustments. If he can’t, I would not be opposed to sending him to Triple-A Iowa for a short time, if for nothing else than to help him get his confidence back.
Edward Cabrera got hit pretty hard
Cabrera made two starts during the week and allowed 16 hits and three walks over 11 innings (1.727 WHIP), and eight earned runs (6.55 ERA). He did strike out 14, and overall has a 22.4 percent K rate, down a bit from his 25.8 percent rate a year ago. I still think Cabrera is a perfectly solid starter and he’ll be fine.
Here’s an interesting thread about Cabrera. Worth keeping an eye on these things.
Edward Cabrera is throwing slower with different mechanics and pitch shapes.
Let's talk about this in a thread. I'll frame each post here as a question/answer.
Perhaps the Cubs are trying to manage his workload in a way that will keep him healthy this year, which has been an issue for him in the past. As always, we await developments.
This comes as a massive relief for San Antonio, which is now in a 2-2 tie in the series. Wembanyama is the team’s best player and arguably the player in the entire NBA who most impacts games on both ends of the floor.
Once he left the game, the Timberwolves attacked the paint more freely because of the void Wembanyama left down low.
Wembanyama committed the foul with 8:39 to play in the second quarter.
During the play, Wembanyama was battling with Reid and Jaden McDaniels after Wembanyama hauled in a rebound. Reid and McDaniels both tried to grasp for the ball, trying to pry it from Wembanyama’s hands. Wembanyama then cocked his right elbow and flung it toward Reid, striking him around the neck.
Reid instantly fell to the court as McDaniels continued trying to wrap up the ball. Officials blew the whistle and separated both sides. They eventually reviewed the play, determining that the contact was "unnecessary and excessive," and elevated the call to flagrant foul penalty two, which results in an automatic ejection.
Wembanyama appeared to be surprised on the bench, seemingly unaware of the rule around a flagrant foul two. It marked the first ejection of Wembanyama’s career and, as he exited the court, he hyped up his teammates and clapped and gestured to the crowd.
After playing just 12:29 in the game, Wembanyama left with four points on 2-of-5 shooting, adding four rebounds and one assist.
Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 at 8 p.m. ET.
A marathon run of games continues for the New York Yankees, who are looking to snap a three-game losing streak as they start a series against the Baltimore Orioles.
New York has owned the O’s for a decent stretch, going 9-1 over the last 10 head-to-head matchups. My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Monday, May 11 expect this trend to continue.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Yankees -1.5 (+102)
This looks like a "get right spot" for the New York Yankees, and I’d play the run line to -120 with an obvious pitching advantage.
Baltimore Orioles hurler Brandon Young has a lot of room to grow. When he’s not inducing chase, he’s finding a lot of bats with a 42% hard-hit rate and slightly above average barrel rate. The Yankees enter this game with the fourth-lowest chase rate in baseball.
A pitcher who cannot generate swing-and-miss against a lineup that won't expand the zone has no path to surviving against a team with so much power.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
The ball could be flying tonight.
Young is a chase-reliant pitcher who won’t get much chase. This will cause him to throw competitive pitches, and his Bottom 30th percentile hard-hit rate will be exposed against one of the best power lineups in baseball.
That should do the heavy lifting for this total. I suspect the O’s can chip in some, too.
Ryan Weathers' 94th percentile breaking ball is a genuine weapon, but his 14th percentile barrel rate is a real liability against a Baltimore lineup that has enough pop. Play to 9.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 16-14, +2.16 units
Over/Under bets: 20-11, +11.72 units
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Moneyline: Yankees -155 | Orioles +140
Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Orioles +1.5
Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
Location
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date
Monday, May 11, 2026
First pitch
6:35 p.m. ET
TV
YES, MASN
Yankees starting pitcher
Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.03 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher
Brandon Young (3-1, 4.35 ERA)
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CHICAGO, IL - MAY 10: T.J. McConnell #9 of the Indiana Pacers looks on during the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery on May 10, 2026 at Navy Pier in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
CHICAGO – Indiana Pacers president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard could hardly sleep the night before the NBA Draft lottery.
Who could, in his situation? In a daring trade to acquire Ivica Zubac back in February, the Pacers sent, among other things, their 2026 first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers. It was protected 1-4 and 10-30, meaning the Clippers could only receive the selection if it landed 5-9. On Sunday, a machine full of ping pong balls would decide which team would be blessed by fate. 52.1% of the time, the answer would be the Pacers. The other 47.9% would benefit L.A.
It was basically a coin flip, at least by odds. Maybe that’s too tame. It was closer to Russian Roulette but with a shade under 2.9 bullets; with just a couple of spins in a chamber they didn’t have eyes on to decide their fate.
Coin flip odds are more instructive. Heads, the trade looks incredible for the Pacers. They acquire a center that they covet, one who nearly made an All–NBA team in 2024-25. They send out two first-rounders in future seasons with worse lottery odds, plus two players who were fading in their plans. A near-perfect addition. Tails, it looks much worse for them. Add a top-five prospect in a very strong draft to that above trade package, and that’s after Zubac barely suited up thanks to injuries. Worst of all, it would mean the Pacers finished with the second-worst record in the NBA and didn’t get the lotto luck for it. How the deal feels could change over the next five years as assets continue to be exchanged, but the Pacers 2026 first-rounder was the best non-Zubac asset moved in the deal. Who would actually use that pick came down to the lottery.
“The truth is, I didn’t sleep much last night. And [Pacers general manager] Chad (Buchanan) and I kind of got away and walked. And we were trying to plan out everything, for the good, for the bad,” Pritchard explained.
As the lottery results were being revealed, Pritchard said his heart was beating like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. He would have been a terrible poker player on Sunday – his emotional state was obvious even to onlookers 30 feet away. And truly, as a trio of Pacers involved in the lottery broadcast sat to witness their fate, only one was able to hide their emotions as a Clippers logo was shown to a room filled with hundreds of people. Millions more watched on television.
The draft lottery and subsequent unveiling of results were held in Chicago’s Navy Pier. A massive Festival Hall was sectioned off, with about one-fourth of the room converted into a stage and viewing area for the proceedings. Every team involved in the lottery had a table in the front of the room for their executives to sit at – the Pacers’ was in the middle row on the left side between the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets.
The only two at the Pacers table were Pritchard and Buchanan. They’ve worked together for years, originally overlapping with the Portland Trail Blazers over two decades ago. Now, they’re the leaders of Indiana’s front office – the other top figure of the group, vice president of basketball operations Ted Wu, was the team’s lottery representative who was in the room for the drawing.
So it was just Buchanan and Pritchard, the smallest number of team representatives at any table. The third figure in the room was guard T.J. McConnell, the Pacers’ on-stage lottery representative. He’s the longest-tenured Pacer and was a rookie with the 2015-16 Philadelphia 76ers, a team that went 10-72 before winning the 2016 draft lottery. McConnell wanted to bring that luck to the Pacers.
There was a hope emanating from the Pacers about 30 minutes before the big reveal. Pritchard and Buchanan spoke with league figures like any other big NBA event – Pritchard congratulated new Mavericks president Masai Ujiri on his new job. Buchanan caught up with executives on another lottery team. There were smiles, at first. They believed they were due for some luck.
“Obviously not good news,” McConnell would be saying about a half hour later.
The two executives sat down, still awaiting the results. Something about doing so made reality settle in. For the next eternity – okay, still just 30 minutes – the Pacers front office leaders had to sit there, powerless against their fate, with judgment coming their way regardless of the result. For a few minutes, neither said a word.
Pritchard showed the most outward emotion. He chewed gum the entire event. At 1:48 p.m. local time, he put on his glasses. Four minutes later, he took them off to fidget with them on the table. The next minute, he put them on for the second time in five minutes.
Kevin Pritchard and Chad Buchanan looking on with about 10 minutes until the reveal begins. pic.twitter.com/4PgEI6WUwx
Buchanan was far more rigid. At 1:51, he adjusted his collar, then was still for several minutes. Next to Pritchard, he looked like a statue. It was the perfect picture of the two and their personalities – and a display of why they’ve worked so well together for all these years as partners in the NBA.
At 1:59, Buchanan’s trance ended as he checked his phone. At the same time, Pritchard did the same. He put his phone away four minutes later, then frantically looked around the room before running his hands through his hair. Both executives were looking for something, anything, to distract them at that moment.
“I know the Twitterverse is probably going to be a little brutal. And I get it, man, I get it,” Pritchard would say later, fitting for someone whose phone became a key prop for fiddling and posting during the day. ”To those people, I’m sorry.”
In came McConnell to provide that diversion. In a sea of suit-wearing lottery representatives, McConnell took the court in a yellow button-up shirt and black pants. He was situated on the same side of the room as the Pacers’ executive table, so he had a clear view of Pritchard and Buchanan.
McConnell reached his seat. He gave John Wall – the Washington Wizards lottery representative – a high five before pulling his phone out and putting it on silent. The next moment, he gave a quick glance to the Pacers front office members gathered about 40 feet away from him. They all made eye contact. Suddenly, McConnell’s mood was serious. Nerves returned for everyone.
The broadcast began as ESPN’s Malika Andrews began to walk across the front of the room to interview the consensus top-three prospects in the coming draft. AJ Dybantsa was first. Right in the background of the interview, Pritchard could be seen as clear as day. Six minutes later, Andrews was finished and NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum took the stage. He was about to reveal the results.
As Tatum pulled the first card out of a folder to reveal which team would be picking 14th, Buchanan put his elbows on the table. It was his first movement in over five minutes. The Pacers had nothing to worry about until the sixth pick, but the start of the process increased the tension.
No teams jumped into the top four until the Chicago Bulls, who entered the day with the ninth-best odds to do so. When the Dallas Mavericks were revealed to have the ninth pick, that meant the Bulls jumped into the top four. Pritchard stroked his chin, thinking about how that would impact his team.
One minute later, the Memphis Grizzlies also jumped up into the top four. It’s 2:17 now, and both Buchanan and Pritchard are rubbing their chins. They each leaned forward. The team picking sixth was about to be announced. Time for the stressful part.
Tatum pulled out the card for the sixth slot. Up came a Brooklyn Nets logo. There was little reaction from Pacers executives. McConnell looked out over the crowd. There was one final reveal to go.
Between Tatum saying “Nets” and pulling out the card for the fifth pick, 13 seconds passed. To Pritchard and Buchanan, it felt like 13 days. Tatum began his lines. “The fifth pick in the NBA Draft will be made by…
“The LA Clippers,” he said, holding up a Clippers logo. McConnell stared off into space. Buchanan didn’t move. Pritchard took a few seconds before re-adjusting in his chair.
The team’s gamble was a loss. The best possible pick they could send to the Clippers is, in fact, going to the Clippers. It took five minutes before Buchanan moved at all, slightly loosening his posture at 2:23. McConnell walked off the stage and chatted briefly with Charlotte Hornets forward and lottery representative Kon Knueppel.
There was a commercial break before the top-four picks were announced, but that break in the action did little to change the demeanor of Buchanan, Pritchard, or McConnell. All three looked almost shell-shocked despite knowing the odds entering the event.
McConnell’s darting glances after it became reality the pick was going to the Clippers were intentional. Moments earlier, his heart was beating “so fast,” yet there wasn’t a thing he could do about it. LA got the pick, and McConnell couldn’t even look at his front office reps
“In a way, I felt like I was letting him down,” McConnell said. “I know there’s no reason to feel that way, but just weirdly do.”
Wall’s Wizards were announced as the winners of the lottery a few minutes later. The broadcast ended, then executives and some high-profile draft prospects all chatted at the front of the room. Buchanan and Pritchard stayed near their table area but stood up and joined in on some conversations.
The 47.9% chance of losing their pick had actually happened. The odds said that was the most likely outcome for the team, but something about the draft lottery messes with everyone’s brain. It just seems like nothing bad will happen, until it does.
Pritchard couldn’t hide his emotions all afternoon. He was so fidgety that it was clear he was nervous in some way. As he began to speak with reporters not long after the event ended, the team president made his mental state even more clear.
“We’re all disappointed,” Pritchard said. That was a theme. “Disappointed because this is a great draft,” he added later. As he continued speaking, Pritchard kept making it clear how talented the team thinks Zubac is. But he would also catch himself by repeating that emotion.
“What we’ve learned from (Zubac) so far is he’s super smart, and he wants to fit in, and he’s all about winning. And again, disappointed. I’m not trying to smooth over that. We wanted to pick, but we’ll be okay,” Pritchard said. Just over 30 seconds later, a repeat. “Again, I wanted to pick. We wanted to pick, and I know people are going to be disappointed. But you have to remember, our top seven or eight players are still with us. So today it stings. But wait till next season. Let’s give this group an opportunity to go compete for a championship. Because they’ve proven they can do it.”
Indeed they have. The Pacers made the NBA Finals in 2025, then upgraded at center from Myles Turner to Zubac. A top-four would have been a perfect addition to round out the team for the next few years.
Many Pacers players couldn’t sleep before Game 7 of that series. They were nervous for the big stage. That was identical to Pritchard on Sunday, who had a ton of anticipation and wanted the lottery win for his owner, longtime Pacers governor Herb Simon.
“My heart hurts for Mr. Simon, if I’m honest. He’s such a good person and he wants it for Indiana like we all want it. In a way, I feel like I’ve let the organization down,” Pritchard said.
He and McConnell shared that emotion. The lottery brings out the hope in everybody. But instead, the Clippers will pick fifth, a painful twist of fate. It’s why Pritchard couldn’t sleep the night before and why the Pacers trade was viewed as risky. This risk didn’t pay off, but the Zubac trade still can. If Pritchard has his way, his next sleepless night will come before an NBA Finals game with Zubac leading his team’s defense. But there could be more tossing and turning in store for him if Zubac isn’t a perfect fit right away or, worse, the fifth pick turns into a star for the Clippers. Time, as with all trades, will tell if Pritchard’s future sleepless nights will be for positive or negative reasons. He’ll just have to hope for better than 52.1% odds of positive outcomes this time.
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