The results from Tim Bontemps’ final 2025-26 NBA MVP straw poll over at ESPN are in, and though the race between Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama appears to be as close as it ever has been, Gilgeous-Alexander actually won it in what looks like a walk. SGA took nearly 90% of respondents’ (who are likely MVP voters themselves) first-place votes and appears set to nab his second straight MVP award.
You may look at the 88-8 disparity in first-place votes between those two and think, “What a blowout — the voters think he’s that much better than Wemby? Surely, it’s more of a 60-40 or 55-45 kind of race this year.”
It’s important to read the context as well as the results, though, both in the two-man race at the top of the MVP balloting and in the two-man race that has become the Rookie of the Year vote among media members this year. Because we have a similar result in Bomtemps’ Rookie of the Year straw poll, and it’s not one that many Dallas Mavericks fans are going to be happy with.
Kon Knueppel won the Rookie of the Year ESPN straw poll among the 100 media members asked who they have at the top of their Rookie of the Year ballot, getting 80 of the 100 possible first-place votes to Cooper Flagg’s 20. But that does not mean that the disparity is that wide, so cool your jets if they’re firing loud.
In a two-man race, if all 100 voters think it’s a close race, but Gilgeous-Alexander is just slightly ahead of Wembanyama at this point, and Knueppel is just slightly ahead of Flagg at this point, both of those two are going to win the poll, 100-0.
“When this is a binary choice, it doesn’t matter if you think it’s 60-40 for one guy,” Bontemps said on Friday morning’s episode of the Hoop Collective podcast, where he and fellow ESPN analysts Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon discussed the straw poll results. “If you think it’s 60-40 for one guy, and the majority thinks it’s 60-40 for one guy, the voting is not going to be 60-40. It’s going to be like 80-20, which is about where this is. It’s not like a ranked-choice scale where you can get percentage points for being close. You’re either first, or you’re second. You either win or you lose, and all fans look at it this way.”
Kon Knueppel is leading the entire NBA in 3-pointers made this season with 261 entering play on Friday. He’s shooting better than 43% from distance this year, something we haven’t seen from a rookie since Stephen Curry. His Charlotte Hornets are suddenly relevant, which is an unexpected point in his favor this year. Team relevance usually doesn’t play a role in Rookie of the Year voting, but the Hornets’ case this year is unique. The fact that Knueppel was on an absolute heater during the stretch of games that Flagg missed in February with a sprained foot, and Flagg’s slow start out of the gate after coming back from that injury also works against Flagg in the poll results.
Flagg has been great, and in 95 out of 100 years, his rookie stat line of 20.3 points (better than Knueppel), 6.6 rebounds (more than Knueppel) and 4.5 assists (more than Knueppel) would be good enough to win Rookie of the Year. Since the NBA-ABA merger, he’s just the fourth rookie to average more than 20 points, more than six rebounds and more than four assists per game as a rookie, after Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Luka Dončic all did it in their first years. The one knock on Flagg’s game is that he hasn’t been a good jump-shooter across his rookie campaign. He’s shooting just 27.8% from 3-point range this year and
“For [Flagg] not to be Rookie of the Year was going to require something pretty historic was going to have to happen,” Bomtemps said on Hoop Collective. “And, not only has Knueppel set the 3-point record for a rookie in the NBA, he’s currently leading all players in the NBA in [3-pointers made], he’s shooting 43% from 3-point range on crazy high volume. And on top of that he’s been the driving force, if not one of the driving forces, on the remarkable turnaround job in Charlotte.”
He called the Rookie of the Year straw poll result “pretty expected” under those circumstances, though I don’t expect Mavs fans to agree with them. It should be noted, though, that Windhorst was one of Flagg’s 20 first-place votes in the straw poll.
“It’s a perfectly defensible vote if you want to vote for him,” Bontemps said on the podcast. “He’s having an awesome season.”
INGLEWOOD, CA - APRIL 2: Dylan Harper #2 of the San Antonio Spurs dribbles the ball during the game against the LA Clippers on April 2, 2026 at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
I’m fascinated by limitations. I don’t think I’m alone in this, but in my case, the fascination borders on morbidity. Even when the ceiling on something is predictably low, I’m curious as to how precisely low that is.
NFTs seemed like such obvious snake oil (especially the whole ‘Bored Ape’ phenomenon), but I couldn’t stop tracking the ascent before the eventual downfall. Most of us knew it was coming, but I just had to know how astronomically overvalued they would become.
I had been a bit young to fully appreciate how farcical the value of beanie babies were in the mid-to-late 90s, but I couldn’t miss out on part deux, and I was riveted.
There was an almost fatal optimism around it that was spellbinding. It became a sort of litmus test for those you had previously considered reasonable and those who reeked of artifice. Immunity was unpredictable. Not because it exposed the unintelligent, but because it exposed what even the intelligent were not exempt from: the weaponization of hope.
I didn’t need the dulcet tones of Morgan Freeman’s voice to remind me that hope was a dangerous thing. I was living that reality as a Spurs fan.
Clinging to every peripheral acquisition. Holding my breath if the team strung two or more wins together in a row. Panning my way through game replays and box scores in search of the faintest glimmer.
I watched Keldon Johnson pile up rebounds and stumble his way into an unforeseeably hot streak from long distance. I fantasized that he could be a sharpshooting Charles Barkley-lite, never minding that those rebound numbers had been the result of an otherwise lone effort on the boards, or that his shooting form roughly resembled that of a medieval trebuchet.
I told myself that Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan’s mid-range games could easily be extended beyond the arc, and that Chip Engelland would work his magic, ignoring that even under his tutelage, Tony Parker had never really managed to become an outside threat.
Lord help me, I even let myself think that maybe Luka Samanic was right, and that something dimly resembling Kevin Durant could be looming somewhere off in his future. I grasped at every straw, I crawled down every rabbit hole, I tuned into every fluctuation.
And you know what? I was wrong. I was categorically, unquestionably, embarrassingly wrong.
But that’s the thing. No one is immune to the necessity of hope in one part of their lives or another. I was experiencing marital troubles. I was strained by a regime change at work. I was diagnosed with a degenerative condition just two weeks before my daughter was born, in the midst of a country-wide lockdown.
I needed to believe that something unreasonable was possible, even when the rest of my brain knew better. If there’s one thing you can say for the truly mad, it’s that they’re rarely suffering from a crisis of faith.
I find it to be supremely interesting that what the rest of us designate as insanity is often merely a belief in that which the collective agrees is preposterous. It makes me wonder how flimsy that agreement really is.
Because, honestly, are there any of us who do not believe in at least one vaguely absurd thing?
Sure, there’s a difference between believing that more than half the population has been replaced by beings who have assumed their identities and believing that Lonnie Walker IV could blossom into some variation of Vince Carter if he could just find the right confidence-restoring mantra, but I’m starting to surmise that it’s not as large a gap as one might think.
I suspect it (largely) has more to do with how much a belief consumes the rest of your life rather than the belief itself. After all, I have a Jock Landale t-shirt and no one’s come to put me away, yet.
The problem is that once you reach a place where you’re capable of recognizing the delusion for what it is, it can make you a little gun-shy regarding anything that threatens to seduce you in a similar fashion.
You recognize the sensation, and then connect it to previous hallucinations in relation to the potential of one Malaki Branham, and it kind of takes you out of it to the point of wielding your crosses and your holy water whilst bidding the devil begone.
That’s been my prevailing instinct all year.
The Spurs are on a double-digit win-streak? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
They keep beating the reigning NBA champions? I mean, it is just the regular season after all.
They go undefeated for the month of February? It was only 11 games.
They scored 110+ points in every game? Defense in the NBA isn’t what it used to be.
Hell, I even went as far as to declare the Spurs just shy of championship caliber two weeks into the very same month. And while the Spurs have certainly evolved into something different in the time that has passed, it’s not hard to see why I felt that way. The inconsistency was prevalent. The youth was without question.
But that’s the thing about rationality, it’s not a zero-sum game. Sometimes in our desire to be reasonable, we tilt too far in the wrong direction. We make a deity out of philosophy, and in our desire for the world to be coherent, we place our hope in something equally absurd.
According to the myth, the Pythagoreans, cultic in their belief in a rational universe, threw their compatriot Hippasus into the depths of the sea for bringing to light the irrationality of the square root of 2.
My takeaway from that story has always been that there’s no definitive mode of thought that can insulate you from the unpredictability of the cosmos.
I saw more people attribute the arrival of Victor Wembanyama to fate and/or the power of positive thinking than to mathematical chance. The numbers were just not as optimistic.
Sometimes you just have to place your hope in something, even within the framework of other faiths and creeds. Sometimes you just have to believe.
The difference is that this team isn’t fool’s gold. I had started thinking that long before they cut down the-nephew-that-must-not-be-name and the hungry Los Angeles Clippers without the aid of their gargantuan leader.
59 wins. The Spurs are going to win 60+ games. They’ve just tallied their 2nd 11 game win streak of the season, and looked supremely unbothered in the process of knocking down a team that’s played them close and hard all season.
De’Aaron Fox reminded fans that the jet-boosters attached to his legs are still in their prime, picking his spots with the selectivity and sleight-of-hand of a longtime carnival worker who knows all the tricks of the trade.
Stephon Castle continued to make teams pay for sagging off of him at the arc, upping his three-point percentage to 43% over the last 10 games, and navigating crowded space like the Millennium Falcon through an asteroid belt.
Luke Kornet did his best Wemby impression in protecting the paint, and Dylan Harper threaded passes with the delicacy of a jeweler crafting a Faberge egg and an audacity that opened up lanes so wide that it almost felt like the Clippers were begging him to start a layup line.
Everyone made their contribution. Nobody seemed to break a sweat. They’ve spent most of the season taking every team’s best shot, and in doing so have become a team for whom limitation exists at the boundary of what they can imagine.
The Spurs have arrived in a manner that is much more suggestive of the iPhone than a blockchain full of cartoon monkeys. And sure, there are gonna be people who sneer at them and cling to their Blackberry.
I have empathy for them, though. They have to hope their teams will remain relevant. That the tide is still high. That they’re not beating on against the current, being borne ceaselessly into the past. I’ve been on the other side of it, and I can’t begrudge them their fantasies.
Hope is the garment of every naked emperor, and we all take turns playing at the role.
They’re welcome to borrow my Jock Landale t-shirt, though. I hear it’s going up in value.
Takeaways:
I’ve been pretty vocal about this for most of the season, but if Stephon Castle can keep hitting threes the way he has been, Dylan Harper is the most natural fit for running the point. No player on the roster getting real minutes has been more turnover efficient than Harper, even as his touches increase. He converts passes that would make Manu blush. He finishes inside with an ease that would put rookie Tony Parker to shame. He can hit shots from the outside, and he sticks to guards and wings alike, forming a natural pairing with Castle in the back-court (who is himself capable of thwarting the forwards that Harper cannot handle). It’s really a shame that he’s not going to win ROY, because he definitely would have if he’d swapped draft years with Castle. He’s just that good. Whatever the case, San Antonio’s back-court is set up to be oppressive both now and in the future. I can barely contain myself thinking about what they’ll be capable of next season.
I did a bit of a deep dive data-wise yesterday afternoon, and discovered that Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie have the highest net ratings for low usage players in the league. They are the definition of efficiency on both ends, and they helped keep a healthy Kawhi Leonard in check last night, while adding their usual long-distance contributions. It’s no coincidence that the Spurs have led the league in offensive rating pretty much from the moment they both made their way into the starting lineup together. Wemby might be the engine that runs this train, but they’re the ones diligently throwing coal on the fire, and they’re keeping it hot!
Also, boy is this team different when they can lean on Luke Kornet. No offense to Mason Plumlee (who’s been a damn sight better in relief than Bismack Biyombo), but Kornet’s health is paramount to this team making it through the Western gauntlet in the postseason. He’s been a little banged up as of late, so I’d love to see the Spurs rest him a bit before the close of the season. Against most teams, as long as Wemby’s playing, they can get away with playing him less. Admittedly, the Clippers’ front-court squad is far from fearsome, but keeping them from getting any easy points was probably the difference in playing out a very stressful 4th quarter, and walking away with a double-digit margin of victory. He’s been one of the best signings in the NBA this offseason, I’d daresay.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 09: Ace Bailey #19 of the Utah Jazz dunks the ball against the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter of the game at Kaseya Center on February 09, 2026 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tomas Diniz Santos/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Tonight marks the Jazz’s preparation for their closing performance in the ceremony. They went through the depths of hell for the last four years, they made their bid for Ace Bailey, they got their win-now trade piece, and now we must bid adieu to what was the strangest Jazz season in the last decade.
Funnily enough, the Rockets clinched their second consecutive Playoff birth after Phoenix’s blowout loss against Charlotte. Unsurprisingly, they built this team on the backbone of the NBA Draft Lottery by throwing out the most putrid lineups imaginable from 2021-2023; the same precedent that Adam Silver wants to stop so that a first-round exit Playoff team can achieve a top-4 pick, for some reason.
Today’s Jazz injury report will feature all your favorite regulars, including Blake Hinson, who has been bestowed the highest honor one can receive for being capable of hitting three triples in a row. Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, Elijah Harkless (hamstring triplets?!), JJJ, Markkanen, Kessler, and Nurkic continue their comfortable ride on the Jazz bench during the final stretch.
OUT – Elijah Harkless (hamstring) OUT – Isaiah Collier (hamstring) OUT – Keyonte George (hamstring) OUT – Blake Hinson (2-way) OUT – Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) OUT – Walker Kessler (shoulder) OUT – Lauri Markkanen (hip) OUT – Jusuf Nurkic (nose)
Rockets are still all business despite their latest Playoff birth, featuring only their true injured players of Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) and Steven Adams (ankle surgery). That’s because they’re only 1.5 games back of catching up to 4th-seeded Denver and taking home-court advantage into the first round.
Catching up to the Jazz’s standings, on the other hand, Sacramento’s interesting 123-115 win over the Raptors only puts the Jazz 1 game ahead of them in the standings. Yes, DeMar DeRozan just played 35 minutes in a meaningless April game. Utah can’t afford any chances; they intend to keep the ball rolling and to continue throwing out a combination of lineups that only sort of resemble the game of basketball. That could be the difference between draft lottery immunity and an 0.6% chance of giving up their pick to OKC.
I would bet my buck that Ace Bailey is determined to finish this season strong. The media had a chance to propel Ace Bailey to All-Rookie 1st Team honors, and may have completely sabotaged that by giving Western Conference Rookie of the Month to…Maxime Raynaud?
Ace Bailey's March:
✅ More PPG than Raynaud ✅ More APG than Raynaud ✅ More BPG than Raynaud ✅ Higher Offensive Rating ✅ Higher Defensive Rating ✅ Higher Net Rating
Western Conference Rookie of the Month: Maxime Raynaud.
Don’t get me wrong Kings fans, I, too, remember when Kessler was the only promising young piece on my team. But it feels a little mundane not to reward Ace Bailey after having statistically one of the greatest months one could have as a teenager.
But the Jazz do, in fact, have more young promising pieces that they can barely even keep up with.
Kyle Filipowski has been juggling between the 4 and the 5 spot, playing out of position 90% of the time while still managing to average 15.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game since the All-Star Break. Utah’s gravest mistake may be choosing to unleash Sensabaugh. Since returning to the starting lineup on March 9, Ice Brice has scored over 20 points in 8 of 10 games. During this period, he is averaging 25.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 three-pointers made, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 steals per game, while shooting an efficient 53.7% from the field and 47.4% from three-point range.
Point in case, this is not a game for the Rockets to slack off, or the Jazz to…work hard, I guess. Utah can do the whole charade — maybe a 21-3 run sprinkled in there, a Svi Mykhailiuk sudden heat-check, perhaps even a Kennedy Chandler hustle montage. All that matters is that Utah comes in to collect that 57th loss, no matter how badly some Twitter loser tries to convince you that it’s ‘ruining’ the NBA product. Sometimes, as Neil Armstrong would say, you need to land the eagle.
This week's Sunday Night Basketball coverage features another thrilling lineup on NBC and Peacock. First at 7:30 PM ET it's the Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks. The excitement continues at 10:00 PM ET when the Houston Rockets go head-to-head with the Golden State Warriors. Live coverage begins with Basketball Night in America at 6:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock. See below for additional information on how to watch each game.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Game Preview:
Sunday's game marks the fourth meeting of the regular season between the two teams. The Lakers have won each of the first three contests.
The Lakers have officially clinched a playoff spot and earned their second straight Pacific Division title. They've been one of the best teams in the league over the last five weeks, going 16-3 in their last 19 games.
“There are a million different forms of leadership, and every guy has their own responsibility to lead in whatever way they can. Whether it’s [Marcus]Smart defensively, LeBron making hustle plays, or Jake [LaRavia] with his physicality. That’s leadership, said Lakers’ head coach JJ Redick.“Our team right now is the reason that we’re winning. Our team – because each guy has contributed to winning.”
For the third time in the last four seasons, the Mavericks have been eliminated from playoff contention. The team has surpassed 50 losses for the first time since the 2017-2018 season.
Despite the disappointing season, Cooper Flagg — the No. 1 pick in 2025 — remains among the favorites for Rookie of the Year. The 19-year-old leads the Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists, and steals.
Peacock NBA Monday will stream up to three Monday night games each week throughout the regular season. Coast 2 Coast Tuesday presents doubleheaders on Tuesday nights throughout the regular season on NBC and Peacock. On most Tuesdays, an 8 p.m. ET game will be on NBC stations in the Eastern and Central time zones, and an 8 p.m. PT game on NBC stations in the Pacific and often Mountain time zones.
Check local listings each week. Both games will stream live nationwide on Peacock. Sunday Night Basketball coverage will also be available on NBC and Peacock. For a full schedule of the NBA on NBC and Peacock, click here.
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Will Shōta Imanaga recover his 2024 form? | | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Earlier this week, I asked you what your biggest concern is about the Cubs. It’s very early in the season, but a small majority of respondents in the SB Nation Reacts survey said it’s the starting rotation:
This is a place where I don’t agree with the majority. As has been the case the last couple of years, the Cubs bench doesn’t appear very strong. On paper, with Dylan Carlson (who still hasn’t played!), Michael Conforto and Scott Kingery (plus whoever isn’t the starting catcher) as the bench players would seem better than last year’s selection of Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján (among others), but Craig Counsell hasn’t given those guys much playing time. Of the three mentioned above, only Conforto has started a game, and he doesn’t have a hit. Kingery has pinch-run — once — and as noted, Carlson hasn’t played at all.
I continue to believe that Carlson would be better in right field right now than either Conforto or Matt Shaw. But they don’t let me make that decision, so we’ll see what Counsell comes up with.
The survey was posted before Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd put together really good outings on Tuesday and Wednesday, so perhaps some of you who voted “starting pitching” might have a different vote now. How do you feel about the rotation after six games? Personally, I feel pretty good about it. Four of the five starters threw pretty well, and Shōta Imanaga made one bad pitch that was smacked for a three-run homer.
I think they’ll be fine, particularly after Justin Steele returns.
Here are the results of the national questions asked in the survey this week.
I’d concur with this vote, though now that the Pirates have called up Konnor Griffin and signed him to a long-term deal, perhaps he’d be the guy. Griffin is MLB’s No. 1 prospect and immediately becomes a strong Rookie of the Year candidate. And he doesn’t turn 20 until later this month.
I concur with this vote as well. Netflix paid big bucks to have the Yankees and Giants play a season opener as the only game, but… many folks don’t have Netflix and didn’t want to sign up just for that.
Over the past few seasons (before this year), MLB made a big deal about having all 30 teams play on Opening Day. I’d like to see them go back to that.
Thanks to all who participated in this week’s survey.
The Washington Nationals (3-3) welcome the two-time defending World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2) to Nationals Park for their home opener this afternoon.
The pitching matchup features Dodgers’ right-hander Emmet Sheehan against right-hander Miles Mikolas. Each hurler will be looking to take a step forward following rocky starts to their 2026 campaigns. Sheehan surrendered four runs in just 3.1 innings. The veteran Mikolasallowed four runs in five innings in his first start.
The Dodgers are on the road following a season-opening six-game homestand that saw them take three from Arizona and lose two of three to the Guardians. The quartet of Shohei Ohtani (.167), Freddie Freeman (.208), Kyle Tucker (.174), and Mookie Betts (.238) are hoping the road helps turn their fortunes around.
The Nationals’ offense has not been an issue. As a team, Washington is hitting .281 and scored 38 runs in their first six games. Joey Wiemer has 10 hits including two home runs 17 ABs and Daylen Lile has 11 hits and scored six runs in 27 ABs for Washington.
Lets dive into this afternoon’s matchup and the opener of this three-game series and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Dodgers vs. Nationals
Date: Friday, April 3, 2026
Time: 1:05PM EST
Site: Nationals Park
City: Washington, D.C.
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Nationals.TV, Sportsnet LA
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Nationals: Miles Mikolas Season Totals: 5 IP, 0-1, 7.20 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4K, 3 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Dodgers vs. Nationals
Kyle Tucker has struck out 9 times in 23 ABs and has just 1 extra base hit
Will Smith has 2 HRs and 5 RBIs
Shohei Ohtani has walked 7 times this season
James Wood has 3 hits in 27ABs
Daylen Lile leads the Nats with 3 doubles this season
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Dodgers vs. Nationals
The Dodgers are 2-4 on the Run Line this season
Washington is 5-1 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 2 times in LA’s 6 games this season (2-4)
The OVER has cashed 4 times in the Nationals’ first 6 games (4-2)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions: Dodgers vs. Nationals
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s game between the Dodgers and the Nationals:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Dodgers on the Run Line.
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It’s a busy 15-game slate across the Majors today, and I’ve dug deep to find the best HR props.
My MLB player props and home run analysis focus on Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber, and Shea Langeliers, who are all great options to clear the fences on Friday, April 3.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Manny Machado
+520
Kyle Schwarber
+172
Shea Langeliers
+280
💲Today's HR parlay
+6183
Manny Machado (+520)
Manny Machado has yet to go deep this season, but he is hitting .263. Today’s contest against the Boston Red Sox, however, feels like the perfect time for him to smack home run No. 1 of the campaign.
The San Diego Padres face Sonny Gray, and Machado is very familiar with him, going 12-for-35 with three long balls. Fifteen of Machado’s homers last season were off righties, and Gray’s lone HR allowed this year was against a right-handed hitter.
Despite entering his mid-30s, Machado's bat remains potent, as he ranked among the Top 10% in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate last season. We're getting a great number for our MLB picks, banking on his lumber to start heating up in Beantown this afternoon.
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SDPA, NESN
Kyle Schwarber (+172)
Kyle Schwarber is still one of the most feared power hitters in the game. While he’s only hitting .182, the slugger has gone deep twice already, and he’ll be up against former teammate Michael Lorenzen today, who is now a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Lorenzen had a tough start to the campaign, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against the Marlins while surrendering a homer.
Schwarber has had nothing but success against Lorenzen, going 9-for-24 with two deep flies. He also went deep twice at Coors Field last season, where the ball flies due to the high elevation.
The slugger remains an elite bat when he makes contact, ranking in the 99th percentile in barrel rate and in the 89th and 88th, respectively, in average exit velocity and hard-hit%.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, COLR
Shea Langeliers (+280)
The Athletics have some intriguing talent, and Shea Langeliers is right at the top of that list. He leads MLB in homers so far, with five, and he’s gone deep in all but two games this season.
The Athletics face Houston Astros righty Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed six earned runs in his season debut while giving up two home runs.
While Langeliers is just 1-for-6 lifetime against Javier, this could be an opportunity to take advantage of a guy who is still trying to find his confidence after a brutal outing.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SCHN2, NBC Sports California
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 2-9, -1 unit
Today’s HR parlay
Manny Machado
Bet Now +6183
Kyle Schwarber
Shea Langeliers
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 22: Roman Anthony #19 of the Boston Red Sox and Alex Bregman #2 talk during warm up prior to the game against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 22, 2025 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Happy Home Opening Day, everybody. If you feel like approaching today as the true Opening Day, no one would blame you. After nearly 48 hours of mild rage, I’m ready to turn the page.
A question for today: Who will step up to provide leadership for these 2026 Red Sox? Part of the issue with having so much turnover year over year is that it’s difficult for a first-year player with the team, regardless of experience, to be vocal. A year ago, Alex Bregman was able to take on that responsibility, which, according to Roman Anthony, continued during the WBC with all of their American teammates.
This season has gotten off to a rocky start, not only on the field with a 1-5 record, but off the field with starting catcher and, by all accounts, great teammate Carlos Narvaez being scratched from Wednesday’s lineup. While it has not been reported as disciplinary, manager Alex Cora didn’t state that it was not disciplinary when given the opportunity. Was Narvaez a repeat offender? Was there a mild offense that might have been let go if the team were 4-1? It seems to me that Cora is sending a message to the rest of the team that they need leadership on this team. Who are some candidates to step up?
Enjoy the home opener, and be good to one another.
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 3: The Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for the national anthem before the opening day game at Fenway Park on April 3, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We made it to Opening Day. It was hard to get here, literally. A 1-5 record before setting foot in front of the Green Monster is not what Red Sox Nation waited all winter to see. Already the winnable games in Cincinnati look like missed opportunities compared to the series in Houston. But now the Sox are back in Boston! A new Opening Day, a new beginning. Except for the record. That stays. The San Diego Padres will do their best to add to the misery, but at 2-4 things haven’t gone that much better for the Friars record wise.
If you’re reading this and headed to the ballpark make sure to get to your seats by 1:30 PM ahead of a 2:10 PM first pitch. They always put on a show for the Opening Day festivities.
Michael King will get things started for the Padres coming in off a 5-inning 1-run, 4-walk, 6-strikeout game against the Detroit Tigers. King had a big 2024 to begin his Padres career but injuries shortened his season last year to just 15 starts. He’s opposed by Sonny Gray, making his second start for Boston. His debut in Cincinnati was rather underwhelming, but with a 5:1 K:BB he was in line with this recent numbers and just needs to give up fewer hits and he can control the game.
Randy Vásquez gets the call on Saturday. Another product of the Juan Soto trade (along with Friday’s starter Michael King), the 27-year-old righty made 26 starts last year and 20 the year before that. He held the Tigers scoreless for 6.0 innings with an 8:3 K:BB which might have you raise an eyebrow based on the Astros carving up Boston like a turkey. However, his career K/9 is just 5.9, and was 5.3 in 2025. So maybe his luck is about to run out. Connelly Early held the Reds to 5 hits and 1 run over 5.1 innings in his 2026 debut. Hopefully they don’t still need a stopper on Saturday but if that’s the situation the kid has impressed since the start of Spring Training.
Closing things out for San Diego is old friend Walker Buehler. The less said about his time in Boston the better. He faced the San Francisco Giants in his lone start of the year so far and lasted just 4.0 innings. He struck out 3, allowed 3 runs, and walked 2. Ranger Suárez will pitch the finale for Boston and, like many of the pitchers listed here, is looking for a turnaround. Venezuela winning the WBC may have hurt his preparation as he faced an abnormal spring innings buildup, and the Padres on paper still have some big bat,s but maybe that’s the challenge he’s been looking for.
One thing about the Padres rotation for the weekend: they’re all righties. Which for a lefty-heavy lineup can’t hurt when you are looking for an edge to jump start the offense. So far the load-bearing Wilyer Abreu has been providing a lot of the offense but maybe others will take the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, April 3: Michael King (0.00 ERA / 3.77 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (6.75 ERA / 4.67 FIP)
Saturday, April 4: Randy Vásquez (0.00 ERA / 2.00FIP) vs. Connelly Early (1.69 ERA / 2.05 FIP)
Sunday, April 5: Walker Buehler (6.75 ERA / 7.17 FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (8.31 ERA / 8.48 FIP)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — On a day where a near-magnitude-five earthquake was the most interesting thing happening around the Toronto Maple Leafs, the club fell 4-1 to the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday. The loss officially eliminated Toronto from participating in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.
It had been evident for a while that the club wasn’t destined to be competing in the league’s greatest showcase. But what is less evident—and what made Craig Berube a bit more contemplative—is the way the regular season has gone. One thing he’s been unhappy about all season? The team is not shooting enough.
“I think we don’t look to shoot enough, personally. I mean, there’s a lot of times where it’s just a simple shot. It’s not our first instinct, in my opinion,” Berube said. “Even from the back end when we get pucks, like, we could move our feet quicker and get them through. I think it’s a mindset more than anything”.
I asked Berube if he felt it has something to do with his team being a little selfless, trying to get it to their teammates.
“Sometimes. In the second period there, there was opportunities where just, we’re right there and we’re trying to pass it into the net. And, you know, we’ve got to get that out of our system. You know, we’ve got to put more pucks at the net,” Berube explained. “You know, simple shots—like in the third, Max shoots one and hits the post. I mean, it’s from a ways out. But those are the types of things, like, and, you know, I can go back and look at when we shoot the puck, we recover it probably 80% of the time”.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2016. pic.twitter.com/SEoP3dys8v
Berube seems to feel that even low-quality shots would generate better chances for the Leafs on rebounds. That might be the case, but it’s also clear the club hasn’t bought into it, continuing to play the way they do.
While the Sharks were desperate for the win to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Leafs now face a different reality. Now that they face the mathematical reality of being out, it’ll be interesting to see if they use their last call-up to bring in another defenseman just to change things up.
On the same day the Leafs were eliminated, Mitch Marner—who departed the Leafs after being a part of Toronto’s previous nine seasons of consecutive playoff appearances—recorded his first hat trick with the Vegas Golden Knights. Meanwhile, forwards Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann each scored a goal for the Los Angeles Kings and Seattle Kraken, respectively. Both players were traded for picks as the Leafs shifted from Stanley Cup contenders at the start of the season to a team looking for its identity and a path for the future.
The Leafs will see Laughton and the Kings on Friday to close out their four-game road trip out West.
How The Math Worked For Elimination
Although the Maple Leafs are 11 points out with six games remaining behind the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets, who are in a three-way tie for the second wild-card spot at 88 points, Toronto could still finished with 89 points. However, Detroit and Columbus have a game against each other remaining on the schedule. Because one of those teams is guaranteed to win that game and collect an additional two points in the standings, Toronto was technically 13 points out instead of 11, and thus eliminated from the postseason.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MARCH 02: Payton Pritchard #11 of the Boston Celtics dribbles the ball against Ousmane Dieng #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the fourth quarter at Fiserv Forum on March 02, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Following their inspired effort against the Rockets, the Milwaukee Bucks face the red-hot Boston Celtics tonight as they try to replicate that effort. As fans, that’s really all we can ask for at this point in the season. Play hard, play together, and let the chips fall where they may.
Where We’re At
Look, the Bucks have lost a bunch of games recently, but as I alluded to in the intro, that Houston game should be what the team aims to be going forward. Play with purpose and confidence as a unit, and you can be proud of your game, whatever the result is. We just saw career highs from Ousmane Dieng, Pete Nance, and the newly signed Cormac Ryan. Ryan, in particular, is a guy I’d like to see play 25-30 minutes per game from here on out; they need to determine whether the shooting is real, and they’re running out of time to do that.
With Jayson Tatum now back in the fold and getting more and more comfortable, the Celtics may just be the odds-on favorite to get out of the East and into the NBA Finals, which is crazy to say when you consider that this year was considered to be a “gap year” for them. As a Bucks fan, I hate to say it, but this Celtics organization just oozes competence at every level. For instance, they grab castaways from other teams and morph them into serviceable role players, such as Luka Garza and Neemias Queta. Obviously, they are extremely well-coached too. This could be a rough one for Milwaukee.
Injury Report
For the Bucks, Giannis (knee), Kevin Porter Jr. (knee), and Bobby Portis (wrist) are out. Gary Trent Jr. (hip) and Thanasis (calf) are questionable, while Ryan Rollins (hip flexor) and Jericho Sims (knee) are both probable. For the Celtics, Nikola Vucevic (finger) is out.
Player to Watch
Let’s go with Jayson Tatum. Tatum has shot ineffectively since returning (40.2%), but his minutes are ramping up, and by all accounts, his movement has been very encouraging as of late. Tonight should be a good chance for him to test some stuff out against lesser competition (sorry, Bucks), so he’ll be a good one to monitor.
How To Watch
Tune in at 7:00 p.m. CDT on FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin.
Mar 30, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; The Dallas Mavericks players look on from the team bench during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
There are those of you who might say that the Dallas Mavericks are just plain bad, and that’s why they’re losing. And good for them, because working hard every night to try your best to win has a multitude of underrated payoffs, which will benefit both the players and the team down the line.
The Dallas Mavericks have put up a real fight in almost every game. Sure, it gets hard when you’re losing or keep losing, but head coach Jason Kidd keeps getting the team to go out there and work hard every night. That’s how he operates, and that’s a really good thing for the team.
What it does, is basically eliminating the issue of potentially creating bad habits during a tanking season, and that’s important because it is in the struggle that we find our identity and strength for adversity in the future.
Not in manipulation, pretense and stat-padding. No one ever reached greatness – or an NBA championship – by cutting corners. And that is what tanking is.
We cannot talk about this without acknowledging that tanking is offensive to sports as a whole. From the point of view of a European, it’s hard not to feel that the theatrics and manipulation around this whole thing is a sham. Losing in order to win is an inherent antithesis to the competitive nature of sports.
Not only are we teaching kids and fans that manipulating is a criteria for success, we’re also teaching them – along with players – that not putting your best effort forward could prove beneficial.
It’s all an artificial game of make believe. We pretend it’s normal and convince each other that rooting for a team to lose is a good thing.
But trying to lose in a competitive environment is not normal, especially for the people involved. Players, who have been brought up to focus on one thing and one thing only – winning – now have to pretend to be satisfied with being part of an organization that encourages not putting your best foot forward.
Players who have been encouraged to have tunnel vision focus can lose their perspective. It takes a special athlete mentality to make it to the NBA, and for that to become misaligned can prove detrimental, set careers back and in the worst case ruin them.
We call it bad habits, but it’s more than that. Players are not robots who you can just tell how to think, act and play. Do you think the best players ever become the greatest of all time by tanking? Do you think football players like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo or Zlatan Ibrahimovic would ever be part of an organization who “had” to lose?
No. And that’s why they’re among the best that ever played. They would not allow themselves to be distracted by the politics of tanking. By manipulating a system to get the biggest reward. They would want to play through adversity to prove that they are the best and deserve to be called the greatest.
But since the rules still are in place, teams have to play along – but there are ways to do it more gracefully and with less of the negative effect to the players especially. And luckily, that’s exactly what we’re seeing from the Dallas Mavericks right now.
Good habits can be formed while losing, character is shaped during adversity and all that. But it’s not until we take ourselves seriously, as fans, players, leaders and people in the world, that we can improve. Let’s not get blindsided and pretend tanking is a natural part of sports. It should be reformed, rethought and updated, because it provides nothing positive to sports, the NBA or basketball.
But at least we have finally found something the Mavs are winning at: being the most ethical tankers around.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MARCH 31: Taylor Ward #3 of the Baltimore Orioles bats against the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on March 31, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Bill Streicher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In 2025, the Orioles were supposed to be contenders to make a run at the AL East and deep into the postseason. Instead, they finished 75-87, in last place, with ineffectiveness a big problem on offense. Baltimore’s hitters batted a collective .235 (tied for 24th in MLB) and posted a .699 OPS (21st). Injuries shredded the pitching staff, but the position players were mostly healthy and still couldn’t hit. The organization knew it had a problem.
So the Orioles did some rebuilding on the offensive side. First-year manager Craig Albernaz brought in an entirely new coaching staff on the hitting side: Dustin Lind as hitting coach, Brady North as assistant hitting coach, and Donnie Ecker in the bench coach role. On the position player side, the team’s biggest move was signing Pete Alonso, the longtime Mets slugger who piled up 264 home runs in Queens and cashed in on a five-year, $155 million deal, to anchor the middle of the order. Dylan Beavers emerged as regular lineup options, and veterans Leody Taveras and Taylor Ward joined to provide steady bats on the corners.
On paper, the offense looked rejuvenated. But of course, following a busy offseason, the million-dollar question is: can they actually hit?
After the first week of the 2026 season, the answer is complicated—although this is at least better than bad.
On the downside, this team is slow. Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in stolen bases, and third to last in foot speed by Statcast measures. This is a little surprising considering the outfield got faster, and Blaze Alexander is, according to Statcast, true to his name.
They’re also sitting in the bottom ten in home runs, with just five through their opening games compared to the Los Angeles Angels’ league-leading ten. For a lineup built around adding a slugger and improving the overall quality of at-bats, the early power numbers are conspicuous, though it’s too soon for any real inferences. Moreover, the Orioles are hitting copious doubles (they’re seventh in in two-baggers). That hints at a team making contact and driving the ball into the gaps, even if they haven’t found the elevation yet to turn those into home runs.
Otherwise, the contact looks pretty good. The team batting average sits at .255 (ninth in the league), their on-base percentage is .332 (seventh), and they’ve scored 26 runs (thirteenth). These are not catastrophic numbers; they suggest, instead, a lineup with potential that hasn’t quite unlocked it yet.
As for the individual performances, the early standouts are Taylor Ward, Dylan Beavers, and Pete Alonso. Ward is batting .333 through the opening stretch, offering the consistent contact the club is looking for from the outfield corners. Beavers is hitting .286 with a homer, three RBI, and three runs scored. His three-hit game in Baltimore’s 8-3 win over the Rangers, capped by a solo shot in the sixth inning, was a showy and exciting showing by the rookie.
The player drawing the most scrutiny, Alonso himself, is also looking good in an early-season sample, even if he’s not slugging homers in bunches. He’s already reaching base with abandon, hitting .304 with seven hits and three walks in 23 ABs. Blaze Alexander and Adley Rutschman are also starting the year off hot, too.
On the cold side of things, Gunnar Henderson, despite an early homer, is 4-for-28, but the foot speed and athleticism are still on display. Coby Mayo, despite a hot spring, is 2-for-20. Tyler O’Neill isn’t rushing out of the gate, either.
This is just illustrative, and not meant to be predictive of anything. This season, the Orioles have the pieces. The new coaches have a philosophy. The new faces are hitting. The early returns are, well, early, but they suggest a lineup that’s more than capable of making noise—even if they’re not mashing taters just not over the fence yet. We’ll have to give them time.
Mar 31, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Adolis Garcia (53) hits a home run against the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
The Phillies signing of Adolis Garcia this offseason was met with at best a shrug and at worst rightful comparisons to former one year deal outfielders past. Garcia hadn’t been an average or above hitter since 2023 and was non-tendered by the Rangers after a 2025 campaign that saw him hit .227 with a .665 OPS. But the Phillies and Dave Dombrowski elected to sign Garcia to be their starting right fielder, believing that he could rebound into being a productive right fielder at best and a defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos at worst.
So far in 2026, that bet is looking good. Garcia is 7-22 (.318) with a home run and one walk to five strikeouts. The metrics also back up the eye test, with a 96.8 MPH average exit velocity, .314 xBA, and .460 xSLG all suggesting that Garcia is putting good swings on the ball. He’s routinely hit the ball hard, but some of them have been line drives right into gloves. One of the biggest things the Phillies worked on with Garcia this offseason was a change in his batting stance. That led to Garcia being late on some balls this spring, but it seems he is starting to get his timing down in the season’s early going.
The other thing the Phillies worked on with Garcia was plate discipline. He has always been a free swinger, but the Phillies wanted him to cut down on his contact on pitches outside the zone, as he made contact on 58% of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone in 2025. Entering Wednesday’s game, Garcia’s outside the zone contact was down to 46.2% while his contact rate on pitches in the zone was 84.6%. He was still swinging and chasing at his normal levels, but he was also making contact on better pitches to hit at a higher rate.
Garcia hasn’t exactly stood out in a major positive way on defense yet however, as he misplayed a fly ball on Sunday and had an errant throw skip into the dugout on Tuesday. But he did have an impressive sliding grab on Saturday that likely saved at least one run from scoring.
Adolis Garcia with a 4-star grab on this play, just a 30% catch probability.
No 4 or 5-star grabs for the Phils RF in all of 2025, got one in the first series of 2026. This just would have been a routine single last year. pic.twitter.com/RWy4f5I0yY
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 25: Marcus Semien #2 of the Texas Rangers looks on during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field on September 25, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Bailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
And finally Evan Grant and Sarah Blaskovich did their annual Rangers new food menu taste test that culminated in Evan wearing the giant Homer Simpson nacho hat.
That’s all for this morning. First pitch at the GLF is set for 3:05 today with MacKenzie Gore on the mound for Texas.
Kurt Helin
Manny Machado
Kyle Schwarber
Shea Langeliers
