The Flyers have successfully ripped the offense out of the series against the Penguins
This has been a wildly disappointing return to the playoffs for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Not only are they down 2-0 to the Philadelphia Flyers after Monday night’s 3-0 loss, they have lost both games at home, now have to go on the road, and seem to be the team that is not ready for the playoff intensity or playoff style. That is a stunning development given the locker room they have, the experience they have, and given that they were simply the better team during the regular season.
None of that has showed itself here.
The Flyers, to their credit, are putting on a defensive clinic through the first two games. They are controlling the neutral zone, blocking shots and closing off lanes in the defensive zone, not letting anybody get near the net and rendering the Penguins power play completely useless. It almost seems as if the Flyers have zero interest in trying to generate anything offensively for themselves and content to just wait for the Penguins to make a mistake and hand them an opportunity.
The Penguins have been happy to oblige. The two goals Philadelphia scored with a goalie in the net on Monday, for example, were the result of just brutal — and avoidable — mistakes by the Penguins.
The lack of offense is not just a lack of goals, but also a lack of chances itself. It feels like they are never in danger of scoring, whether it be during 5-on-5 play or on the power play.
Sure, they have put together a lot of extended shifts in the offensive zone. The Penguins have almost certainly won the territorial battle in terms of puck possession and offensive zone time. But it is not getting them anywhere. They finished Game 2 on Monday with a 73 percent expected goal share during 5-on-5 play. But they only actually generated 2.01 expected goals for themselves, and most of that came in the third period when they were were not only already trailing, but trailing by two goals. Philadelphia took its foot off the gas even more from an offensive perspective.
It has simply been a total power outage in terms of offense. For a team that had 12 different 15-goal scorers during the regular season, and was the third-highest scoring team in the NHL, and the highest-scoring team of the Sidney Crosby era, it is staggering.
Philadelphia is an excellent defensive team, and it has lived up to the hype in that regard. But should it be THIS good?
It is the perfect storm of the Flyers completely buying in to what Rick Tocchet wants them to do, and the Penguins repeatedly banging their heads against the wall. Which is something we have seen from this group in years past in the playoffs. Something has to give.
But what I really wanted to do is just see how these two games stack up to previous Penguins playoff games in the Crosby-Evgeni Malkin era. Where do they stack up in terms of offensive struggles, and in terms of pace?
I pulled data from Natural Stat Trick on every Penguins playoff game going back to the start of the 2007-08 season (as far back as their data goes) and just compared it all.
Including Games 1 and 2 of this series, the Penguins have played 187 playoff games over that stretch.
Some findings:
- Their 2.01 expected goals during 5-on-5 play in Game 2 rank 76th on the list, which is higher than I would have anticipated based on the eye test. Their 2.81 expected goals in all situations rank 96th. So … still not great. But also several games worse. About middle of the pack.
- Their 1.96 expected goals in all situations in Game 1 rank 163rd, while their 0.96 during 5-on-5 play in Game 1 ranked 178th.
- Game 1 was the truly dismal offensively showing, despite the closer score on the scoreboard. It was, by every objective measure, one of the worst offensive playoff games the Penguins have played in the Sidney Crosby era. Scoring chances, expected goals, high-danger scoring chances, shots on goal, attempted shots …. everything across the board was among the bottom-25 showings. A large portion of the games that were worse came during the 2008 and 2009 Stanley Cup Finals against the Detroit Red Wings, and that 2013 Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins. It was that level of bad.
- Game 2, in some ways, was better, even if the scoreboard did not reflect. That was especially true during 5-on-5 play. The power play is what largely ruined Game 2, not only by failing to score or generate much in the way of opportunities, but also by giving up one of the ugliest and sloppiest shorthanded goals you could ever imagine seeing in a playoff game.
The other side of this is the reality that the Flyers themselves are not generating anything offensively. And I suspect a lot of that is by design. Probably most of it. They do not have the scoring depth the Penguins do, and are doing everything in their power to keep this series from opening up.
In Game 2, for example, the Penguins allowed just 0.72 expected goals during 5-on-5 play, a staggeringly low number. So low that it is the third-lowest number they have allowed in any playoff game since the 2007-08 playoffs. Third. Lowest.
Even in Game 1, the 1.44 they allowed during 5-on-5 play were 122nd, which is still an extremely good performance in terms of suppressing chances. The Flyers certainly had their opportunities, but they were a handful of rush chances off turnovers and not the result of sustained territorial dominance.
I am not saying the Penguins are playing well defensively or dominating defensively. That is not what I think those numbers reflect. I think they are more a reflection on how the Flyers are playing, and how they have successfully sucked the offense out of this series. It is a big part of what they have done all season, especially after the Olympic break when they made a run to get into the playoffs. They are doing it as well as they have right now.
They have happily turned the series into a low-event rock fight.
In terms of total expected goals during 5-on-5 play, between both teams, these two games have ranked 158th and 174th out of every playoff game the Penguins have played since 2007 (187 games).
That is almost certainly exactly what Philadelphia wants.
The questions now become, 1) Can they keep doing it this well for a few more games, and 2) Will the Penguins pick up a few rocks of their own, or find a way to force the Flyers to play a style they do not want? Maybe getting on the road and having to play a road game will do them well. The Penguins have played well on the road all season. They need to find it again.
Who closes games for the Dodgers now?
Edwin Díaz won’t be closing games for the Dodgers for the foreseeable future, as he’ll be sidelined until the second half of the season. The Dodgers don’t seem all that interested in anointing another pitcher into the capital-c Closer role in the interim, which is to be expected given how they generally operate.
This is what manager Dave Roberts said on Monday afternoon at Coors Field ahead of the series finale against the Colorado Rockies. From Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register:
“I do feel comfortable with a handful of guys, really, that I feel that can close out games for us,” Roberts said. “So right now, I’m not gonna name a closer.”
The Dodgers have been hesitant to name a closer pretty much since Kenley Jansen left the organization. Even as Evan Phillips was the clear usual choice as closer when healthy in 2023 and 2024, they didn’t name him as closer. But even if anointed, the title can always be temporary. Roberts did not hesitate to remove Jansen from closing duties in his later years with the club, especially in the postseason.
Generally speaking, the Dodgers don’t like to paint themselves into a corner. Naming a closer doesn’t really accomplish much other than ego boosting. It took someone with Díaz’s stature and accomplishments to stray from that path.
Alex Vesia has earned the two saves not recorded by Díaz on the Dodgers this year. Given how they’ve been used and their career track records, expect Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen to get closing opportunities as well. Those three were mentioned by name by Roberts on Monday, and they’ve pitched in the highest-leverage situations this season on the staff among active pitchers.
A dozen different Dodgers recorded saves last year, and a whopping 14 pitchers did so in 2024 (15, counting Walker Buehler’s championship-clincher). Today’s question is a simple one: which Dodgers pitcher(s) would you like to see close games with Edwin Díaz on the shelf?
Timberwolves' Jaden McDaniels takes jab at Nuggets saying they are 'bad defenders'
As if the rivalry between Denver and Minnesota needed anyone to throw gasoline on the fire, Jaden McDaniels stepped up and did just that after a come-from-behind win by his Timberwolves Monday night evened the series. He took aim at the Nuggets stars, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray,
"Go after Jokic, Jamal, all the bad defenders," McDaniels said, via the Associated Press. "Tim Hardaway (Jr.), Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, the whole team, just go at them."
The whole team is bad defenders?
"Yeah, they're all bad defenders," McDaniels said, doubling down.
For the record, the Nuggets had the 21st-ranked defense in the NBA during the regular season, although that defense looked much better in Game 1 of the series, a Nuggets win.
In Game 2, McDaniels had 14 points on 7-of-15 shooting, on a night where Anthony Edwards had 30 points and 10 rebounds, and Julius Randle had 24 points, leading the way.
Minnesota had a 116.8 offensive rating in Game 2, which is right at the team's regular-season average. What won the Timberwolves the game was its defense, which wore down Jokic and Murray and kept the Nuggets to a 111 offensive rating, more than six points per 100 possessions below their season average.
McDaniels will be celebrated at home, with the series shifting back to Minnesota for games three and four. However, when the series shifts back to Denver for Game 5 next week, he can expect a very special welcome from the Nuggets faithful.
Mike Brown’s rotations need a major retooling ahead of Game 3
There’s been a lot of emotion pouring out of the Knicks-verse after the startling fourth-quarter collapse in Game 2 that turned the series from a Knicks stranglehold to anyone’s series. While not quite as jaw-dropping as the collapse against Indiana last year, this one was more methodical. In a way, though, it’s worse because it gave the Knicks countless opportunities to lock in, and it never happened, while there was this drowning sensation in that infamous Game 1 last May.
There are loads of reasons the game went the way it did. The timeout fiasco (Mike Brown did NOT have a timeout at the end of the game, but puzzling usage put them in that spot), the 10 missed free throws, Jalen Brunson’s off-kilter performance disrupting the offense, and a puzzling disappearance by Karl-Anthony Towns.
A reason that a lot of people are blaming is the rotations, which I don’t necessarily agree with for two reasons. For one, the Jose Alvarado-led lineup played effectively even in a 4-5 minute stretch in the second half, and two, the starters had a nine-point lead and the ball multiple times, and the offense shut off. For a lineup that’s been exceptional in fourth quarters and a team that’s historically good in these situations, that’s more to blame for me.
But you can argue that the lack of an optimized rotation allowed the Hawks to hang around in two stretches when they were struggling and to come back. As this series shifts to Atlanta in a suddenly even series, you might not have the margin for error that you had last night.
According to PBP Stats, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are a slight negative when on the court together, but I believe that’s skewed by the late-game charge in Game 1 and whatever the hell that was in Game 2. For six of the eight quarters, they’ve played well together. That’s because the Hawks are mostly using Onyeka Okongwu to guard Towns, but are switching to using Jonathan Kuminga on him in clutch time.
The reason behind that is pretty obvious: the Knicks go into an iso-centric offense around Brunson in these situations, and Towns is a non-factor, so you’re effectively able to take him out of the play and blitz Brunson while having his co-star two passes away. In fact, the only possession in the final five minutes where Okongwu guarded Towns last night was executed quite well, but resulted in a miss:
If Brunson makes this elbow jumper (or kicks to an open Anunoby in the corner), they probably win. Alas, that’s not what we’re here for.
The more startling number is that Mike Brown has now played lineups without Towns or Brunson for 20 minutes through two games, and those lineups are being crushed to the tune of a -13.5 net rating. Most of that is in the truly terrible stretch to start the second quarter, but it’s notable nonetheless.
The three lineups with both on the bench that we mostly saw last night were:
McBride-Shamet-Clarkson-Anunoby-Robinson
Alvarado-McBride-Shamet-Anunoby-Robinson
Alvarado-Clarkson-Bridges-Anunoby-Robinson
All of these lineups are a negative, albeit in a small sample. The first lineup, in particular, is the team’s second-most common lineup (11 minutes) in the series and is the worst-performing. That’s flat-out bad, especially when you’re playing a team that is as scrappy as the Hawks.
There are real issues with these lineups on offense. While the third lineup is theoretically playable with multiple shooters and ballhandlers, it lacks the alpha that is needed on the court in the playoffs.
There’s also a stylistic problem with how players are being used. Deuce McBride has been a non-factor so far and, for a guy with a reputation of being a plus-minus machine, is involved in all of these negative lineups.
Of the 35 minutes that McBride has played this series, 18 of them are coming without Brunson or Towns. In fact, 15 of them have come without a true point guard (which includes Alvarado). This forces the young guard to take on more on-ball responsibilities, which has never been his forte, especially against an aggressive defense.
In these possessions, you’re seeing either McBride sharing ball-handling duties with Landry Shamet or running in circles to try and create something to no avail. The 18 minutes that McBride has played without Brunson or Towns have a -18.4 net rating, while the brief stints he’s played with either Brunson or Towns have been much stronger.
You go back to the regular season, and these numbers are equally apparent.
McBride with Towns: +7.9 (323 min)
McBride with Brunson: +12.7 (273 min)
McBride with both: +11.8 (263 min)
McBride with neither: +3.5 (121 min)
Deuce thrives on his teammates’ gravity. When Brunson sucks in the defense on a drive, he has open shooters to spray to. When the defense collapses on Towns in the post, he has open shooters to kick it out to. The same can be said for Anunoby and even Mitchell Robinson off an offensive rebound, but these two are the keys. McBride has to play with one of them. He’s inarguably a top-seven player on your roster and needs to make an impact.
In the regular season, lineups without Brunson and Towns didn’t even play well, so choosing to go to them often in this postseason is baffling. It’s one thing when both have four fouls in the third; that’s understandable, but it isn’t in the second quarter. Mike Brown needs to stagger his stars better because complacency in the midst of trying things out is going to make this series a lot longer and more nerve-wracking than it should be.
Mets planning to activate Juan Soto for Wednesday's game against Twins: report
With the Mets currently on an 11-game losing streak, they could certainly use superstar Juan Soto back as soon as possible.
And it sounds like Soto's return date is now set.
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Mets' "current plan" is for Soto to be activated ahead of Wednesday's game against the Minnesota Twins, the second game of the three-game series.
The most recent update on Soto from manager Carlos Mendoza noted that Soto had been taking live at-bats and had been doing "high-intensity running."
Soto hasn't played since April 3, when he landed on the IL with a calf strain. The Mets won their first three games without Soto, and then started their current 11-game skid.
Soto had been off to a tremendous start, slashing .355/.412/.516 with one home run and five RBI. The Mets offense has struggled mightily over the last 11 games, averaging just 1.7 runs per game during that span, so adding Soto back into the mix should provide a much-needed boost.
The four biggest takeaways after NY’s Game Two loss against Atlanta
Game two’s loss on Monday night was a messy amalgamation of inexplicable coaching decisions, selfish play, bad and bad shot-making from both the three-point line and the free-throw line, and it led to one of the most frustrating losses of the season. So what are the biggest takeaways from a loss that I’m sure everybody will want to forget about? Hint, you’re going to see that a lot of guys just need to be better.
Jalen Brunson has to be better.
Jalen Brunson has meant more to this franchise than almost anyone who has ever been a Knick. He is the best player on the team, the steady captain of a team, and an organization that has longed for said steadiness. And without him, New York does not experience its first taste of sustained success in two decades. That being said, Brunson, like any other player to ever don a jersey, has his flaws. Among those flaws is his tendency to take matchups personally.
It can, at times, work in his and the Knicks’ favor. But when it doesn’t, it leads to a self-serving, heliocentric, stagnant offense, leaving teammates and fans watching and wondering what’s going on. Last night, and you can argue the last 7 quarters, have been a prime example of that. For a very large portion of this series, Brunson’s offensive process has been subpar, bordering on awful. There’s been a lot of isolation, forced shots, and open-court turnovers, and many of them have come at critical junctures of the game.
When his second option was a hobbled Julius Randle or Donte DiVincenzo, it was understandable for Brunson to play hero ball. But with an All-NBA player in Karl-Anthony Towns right beside him, it’s inexplicable. Towns has been feasting on the Hawks’ defense for much of the series, but only when he is given the ability to do so. Despite the big man toeing the line between patience and decisiveness incredibly well over the first two games, Brunson insisted on doing it by himself.
What Brunson has yet to understand is that not only does playing with Towns work very well, it also makes everyone’s life, including his very own, much easier. When Brunson either involves Towns in a pick-and-roll or plays off of Towns being the offensive hub, he can then conserve energy, while also often getting much better looks.
I expect Brunson to improve moving forward. During his almost two full seasons playing with Towns, he’s often backed up games like last night’s with very good playmaking games. But that doesn’t make up for last night’s loss, and it doesn’t make it any less frustrating. The two have been playing way too long for Brunson to still have games like this. And if he and the Knicks want to get as far as they’d like, Brunson will want to think real hard about whether personal matchups or winning matters more.
Deuce McBride and/or Landry Shamet have to be better.
I spoke very openly after game one about how much better the Knicks’ bench was compared to the Hawks’. Last night, the results were a bit different. New York’s bench has gotten a lot of flak in the last 12 hours, but I think it’s overstated a bit. Mitchell Robinson and Jordan Clarkson were still both effective and provided some great minutes. As did Jose Alvarado, who, despite only logging nine minutes, was tied for the second-highest plus-minus in the game.
What hasn’t been overstated is the ineffectiveness of Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet, two players who have been pivotal to the Knicks’ regular-season success, in Game 2. McBride made two key threes in Saturday night’s win, but went 0-3 from the field, just 0-1 from three, had two turnovers, and overall looked outmatched when met with perimeter pressure. Shamet attempted just one shot in 10 minutes, and missed it, making him just 1-7 from the field, and 1-6 from three this series.
Meanwhile, the Hawks’ bench was a big reason they won. Corey Kispert, thanks in large part to the Knicks ’ bench ineptitude, was a +10 in nine minutes, while Tony Bradley repeated some of his successes as a Pacer, giving them a very solid 12 minutes. And Jonathan Kuminga scored 19 crucial points off the bench as well.
With Robinson and Clarkson playing the way they have been, the Knicks don’t need a lot from McBride and Shamet. But with the Hawks now having homecourt advantage and the momentum, they can ill afford both of these players being as quiet as they have been.
Mike Brown has to be better.
While both players can and should be playing better, it is on the coach to put their best players in the best position to succeed, something Mike Brown failed to do last night. Brown, rightfully so, has caught a lot of flak for his lineup decisions last night. And while many have pointed out that the starters came back in with a nine-point lead, it’s still hard to justify Brown’s choices.
It is true that the starters had a chance to close out the game. It is true that Brunson can, should, and needs to be better. It is true that OG Anunoby cannot miss two free throws like he did last night. And it is true that if Mikal Bridges makes the final shot, the Knicks still escape with a victory.
But even the greatest players of all-time have missed shots and made bad decisions. One thing you can control is rotations and lineup choices. If Brown doesn’t go to a Brunson, and Towns-less lineup in the second and fourth quarters, chances are, the starters have more than a nine-point cushion. Instead of using lineups that he has gone to for the vast majority of the season, he went with lineups that either had very little success or no experience playing together, and that is just flat out not okay.
And it’s not just about having one of your two best players on the court at all times. It’s the fact that they make the jobs of the bench players easier. And, quite frankly, those bench players also make the stars’ jobs easier. For as long as McBride has been a rotational player, he has played extremely well with Brunson, and or Towns. It’s because McBride amplifies both of them with his shooting and perimeter defense, while they both make McBride’s job easier. The same, albeit to a lesser extent, can be said about Shamet.
Again, yes, those two can play better. But instead of putting his bench players in a position to succeed, he made their jobs more difficult, and that, regardless of how well the starters closed out the game, is a problem Brown needs to address going forward.
Offense against the bigs on Hart has to be better.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. As I touched on after game one, the Hawks went back to the Knicks’ biggest kryptonite-putting a big on Josh Hart-and it worked to perfection. As it so often has, the Knicks’ offense, which had already gotten stagnant, ran into even more problems when the Hawks went to this defensive alignment. And you can bet the Hawks are only going to rely on it more and more as the series goes on.
While the Knicks should still have the upper hand and should still out-talent the Hawks, this should, and likely will, be a key thing to keep an eye on the rest of the playoffs.
Knicks fall hours after ‘Mayor Mambino’ admin puts up display
Let’s Knick this bad magic in the bud.
New York Knicks fans warned Mayor Zohran Mamdani to steer clear of Madison Square Garden during the team’s playoff run – to block the Curse of the Mambino from spreading to the World’s Most Famous Arena.
The message from fans on Tuesday came one day after the Knicks choked away a Game 2, first round playoff matchup against the rival Atlanta Hawks and as baseball fans blamed Mamdani for an epically bad New York Mets losing streak.
“Mr. Mayor, you and your curse, bad luck, whatever you want to call it, stay away from my team,” said diehard supporter David Stento, who was visiting the city from Binghamton.
Follow live updates on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s socialist agenda and the latest in NYC politics
“I’ve been waiting for this win for a long time. Get out of the way.”
“The way [Jalen] Brunson and [Karl-Anthony] Towns and the other guys are playing, I believe they are going to win it all but to be on the safe side, he should not go to any of the games,” the 68-year-old retiree added outside the NBA Store in Midtown Manhattan.
The Mets 11-game losing streak through Tuesday including an 0-10 record since April 9, when Mamdani visited Citi Field and hugged mascots Mr. and Mrs. Mets.
The Post spoke to Knicks fans and posted a “Mambino Keep Out” sign outside MSG Tuesday with the hope no similar sorcery would affect the team as they try to rebound after Monday’s loss that allowed the Hawks to tie the series 1-1.
The Knicks are coming off a 53-29 regular season and an exciting 2025 postseason run that saw them reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Queens resident Ely Frank, who was at the Knicks’ Game 1 win, believes the hometown squad can top the Hawks, but “we don’t want the mayor jinxing this.”
“Just stay away,” the 34-year-old retail worker pleaded with the mayor while sporting a Knicks hat. “There is still hope so just keep your distance.”
Tomasz Racinowski also said he didn’t want any Mamdani “curse” lingering over the Knicks.
“We have been cursed for too long,” 42-year-old Long Islander said in reference to the franchise that hasn’t won a championship since 1973.
The democratic socialist was already facing flack for prematurely celebrating the team – and possibly jinxing their chances – by placing life-size cartoon cutouts of top Knicks players around City Hall just hours before New York’s stinging one-point loss to the Hawks in Game 2.
The art display from Tom Sanford included former Knicks greats like Patrick Ewing, Carmelo Anthony, Larry Johnson, John Starks and, as well as current superstar Jalen Brunson.
Did the curse of the Mambino hit the New York Knicks as well?
— Craig McCarthy (@createcraig) April 21, 2026
This went up yesterday, hours before the Knickerbockers lost by one point to the Atlanta Hawks. pic.twitter.com/1jT7C3q0u0
But some fans weren’t sure that the cloud over the Mets would extend to the Knicks.
“The curse can’t go from baseball to basketball,” avid fan Jonathan G., 28, said outside MSG. “It’s just unfortunate for the Mets.”
Manhattan resident Daniel Ross, 29, also didn’t think Mamdani could sway the playoff series.
“I mean, I wish I wish I could blame him, but, I mean, I’ve been a fan my whole life and nothing good has happened,” the finance worker said.
Mamdani hasn’t been shy about his Knicks’ fandom, and last week jokingly blamed former Hawks star and Knicks’ nemesis Trae Young for the sky-high ticket prices at MSG.
“I am still confident and hopeful of a championship this year, I do wish, however, all of these tickets were far more affordably priced,” he said at a press event.
The next showdown between Knicks and Hawks is set for Thursday from State Farm Arena in the southern city.
Former Mayor Eric Adams also faced scorn from sports fans last year when he temporarily renamed more than a dozen Big Apple streets after team members as the Knickerbockers advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals..
The team ultimately lost the series to the Indiana Pacers in six games.
Meanwhile Mets fans hoped the“Curse of the Mambino” didn’t linger as long as the “Curse of the Bambino,” which myths said blocked the Boston Red Sox from winning a championship after they sold Babe Ruth to the rival Yankees. The Red Sox went 86 years without a championship after the deal.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Tuesday, April 21
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It's Dinger Tuesday, which is a great day to get out of a home-run rut. The current weather might be suppressing some four-baggers, so bettors need to pick their MLB player prop spots today on a full schedule.
The spots I'm picking are in Anaheim, where two of my favorite pitcher fades are starting in Patrick Corbin and Jack Kochanowicz, and in Denver, where the thin air at Coors Field is always prime for exploiting power. In this case, I'm backing Colorado Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle.
Below are my favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, April 21.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Mike Trout | +350 |
 Kazuma Okamoto | +790 |
 Brenton Doyle | +700 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +29017 |
Mike Trout (+350)
I don’t dip too much into the mid-300s, but getting the most probable Los Angeles Angels home-run hitter 75 points better than fair is tough to pass up against Patrick Corbin. Mike Trout is priced at +350 to go deep for an eighth time this year, which is stronger than most of his recent closing numbers. The matchup sets up well, as Corbin owns one of the highest Blast Contact% rates among starters.
Corbin’s leash has been extended and could push 90+ pitches, but even if he exits early, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen may be without multiple high-leverage arms. Right-handed hitters are batting around .300 against Corbin since 2024, and the setting helps with 10-mph winds blowing out to center. Angel Stadium also has the lowest average fence height in baseball.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1
Kazuma Okamoto (+790)
Let’s stay in Anaheim, as Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday.
His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, they often leave the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year.
Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%.
There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1
Brenton Doyle (+700)
Brenton Doyle might hit near the bottom of the Colorado Rockies lineup, but his +700 home run price at home vs. Randy Vásquez is a great number that I’d play down to +600.
Coors Field is always a strong backdrop, but it stands out even more on this slate and projects as today's top hitting environment. The snow is gone, temperatures are up to 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out to left field — all pointing to a favorable home run setup.
Vásquez allows solid contact and ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball in Blast Contact% through the first month. Doyle may only have one homer so far, but it came against Vásquez two weeks ago, and he also brings one of the fastest swings in the Colorado lineup.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 5-35, -4.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Mike Trout | Bet Now +29017 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | |
| Brenton Doyle |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Craig Counsell made a very strange statement about Shohei Ohtani
While Cubs manager Craig Counsell was having his usual pre-game media scrum on Monday, he decided to opine about Dodgers pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani and the rule that allows an exception for the Dodgers to have essentially an extra pitcher on their roster, as MLB teams are now limited to 13 pitchers on their 26-man roster.
Counsell called the rule “bizarre” and added:
“I’ve never understood it,” Counsell said. “It’s an offensive rule, essentially. It’s a rule to help offense, more than anything, if you ask me. And then there’s one team that’s allowed to carry basically one of both, and he gets special consideration, which is probably the most bizarre rule. For one team.”
Well… yes, it’s for one team. At this time. Any team that has a player that meets these requirements can have a similar exception:
To qualify for a two-way designation, players must meet the following criteria in either the current season or any of the two previous seasons:
Pitched at least 20 major-league innings
Started at least 20 games as a position player or DH, with at least three plate appearances in each of those games
With his two-way designation, Ohtani does not count against the Dodgers’ pitcher total on their active roster, another luxury for a franchise with an enormous payroll.
The thing is, everyone in baseball knows Ohtani is a unicorn. There isn’t anyone in MLB history who’s done what Ohtani has — no, not even Babe Ruth, who was a good pitcher for several years before becoming the legendary hitter he was. Ruth only did the pitching/hitting combo for, really, two years (1918-19) before pretty much quitting pitching (he pitched in only five games after 1919).
Ohtani has been a top pitcher and hitter for several seasons, winning three MVP awards for his combined production (though it could be argued he could have been MVP only as a hitter, and won Cy Young Awards had he only been a pitcher). He has 17.0 career bWAR as a pitcher and 36.0 bWAR as a hitter — no one’s ever come close to that, though Ruth did amass 20.4 career bWAR pitching. Ohtani will easily double that. He’s a Hall of Fame player, right now, and could easily wind up with 600 career home runs, 300 career stolen bases and 100 career wins (in an era when wins are downplayed), and possibly 2,000 strikeouts.
Now if any other team can find a player like that, they’d get the same roster exception the Dodgers have. Only that’s not likely to happen, because Ohtani is unique. And I use the word “unique” as it’s supposed to be used, meaning “only one.”
Yes, the rule is called the “Ohtani Rule.” So what? Ohtani is good for baseball and Counsell’s comments, in my view, shouldn’t have been made.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts had a pointed response for Counsell, quoted in this Los Angeles Times article by Steve Henson:
“He’s an exception because he’s an exceptional player,” the Dodgers manager told reporters after his team’s 12-3 victory against the Colorado Rockies.
“It certainly benefits us, because we have the player,” he said. “But that’s something that, any team that had Ohtani would have that player.
“We’re more than willing for other teams to go out and find a player who can do both.”
It’s something Counsell shouldn’t have said, in my view, and especially not just before a weekend series coming up between the Cubs and Dodgers at Dodger Stadium this weekend. You can be sure this topic will be revisited before that series.
Oh, and Ohtani is starting tonight against the Giants. If the Dodgers hold to a five-man rotation (though this year, they’ve given Ohtani six, seven and five days of rest between starts), Ohtani could possibly start against the Cubs Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles.
That’d be interesting just for Counsell’s comments alone, but also — Ohtani has never pitched against the Cubs, one of just two teams he’s never faced (the other: the Brewers).
As always, we await developments.
Blue Jays vs Angels Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is swinging a hit bat right now, and my Blue Jays vs. Angels predictions expect him to remain hot tonight in a plus-matchup against Jack Kochanowicz.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 21.
Blue Jays vs Angels predictions
Blue Jays vs Angels best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 total bases (+110)
You’re getting great value on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +110 to go Over his bases total tonight.
He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, batting .354, the second-highest average in the majors.
Vladdy is also currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, averaging 2.54 bases per contest in that stretch.
Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has faced Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz three times in his career, going 2-for-3 against him.
Kochanowicz primarily uses his sinker against right-handed batters with a 43% usage. That’ll be dangerous against Vladdy, who owns a .444 average against the pitch with a 56% hard-hit rate.
COVERS INTEL: Guerrero Jr. owns a 1.136 OPS during this current 11-game hitting streak. Blue Jays vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)
I’ll continue to bank on the Toronto Blue Jays’ offense remaining hot and take the suddenly surging Nathan Luke’s to keep swinging the bat well by taking Over 0.5 hits. After an abysmal start, Luke’s has totalled eight hits while on a current four-game hitting streak. He is also 1-for-2 against Kochanowicz in his career.
For the last leg of the SGP, I’ll take Over 1.5 walks for Kochanowicz. The Los Angeles Angels righty has struggled right he zone this season, going Over the total in each of his four starts. He is also averaging 3.75 walks per game this season, which ranks in the 13th percentile in walk-rate among all pitchers.
Blue Jays vs Angels SGP
- Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Lukes Over 0.5 hits
- Kochanowicz Over 1.5 walks
Blue Jays vs Angels home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+600)
I’ll make this a half-unit wager.
Kochanowicz is a ground-ball pitcher who doesn’t give up many homers — just one on the year.
However, Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night.
Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.
2026 Transparency record
- Best bets: 5-16, -8.35 units
- SGPs: 2-19, -11.50 units
- HR picks: 4-17, +0.15 units
Blue Jays vs Angels odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +101 | Los Angeles -110
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Blue Jays vs Angels trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Angels.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Angels and game info
| Location | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, April 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-W, SN1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Patrick Corbin (0-0, 4.66 ERA) |
| Angels starting pitcher | Jack Kochanowicz (2-0, 3.47 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Angels latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Angels weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Orioles vs. Royals prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for April 21
The Baltimore Orioles (11-12) and the Kansas City Royals (7-16) continue their three-game series at Kauffman Stadium tonight.
The O’s took the series opener last night, winning 7-5 in 12 innings. The Royals led the game 1-0 heading to the ninth. Light-hitting Sal Basallo, though, drove in Dylan Beavers with a single to force extra innings. Leody Tavares did the rest cracking a grand slam in the 12th to propel Baltimore to a 7-5 win. Nick Loftin cleared the bases with a double in the bottom of the 12th inning, but it was not enough for the Royals. With the win, the Orioles snapped a modest two-game losing streak and, in the process, sent the Royals to their eighth straight defeat.
Tonight, Shane Baz (0-2, 4.91 ERA), still looking to find his footing with the Orioles, takes his turn on the bump for Baltimore against looking to find his form after a rocky start to his tenure in Baltimore. Baz has struggled with control, yielding at least three runs in three of his four starts this season. He will need to navigate a Kansas City offense that did manage to total 14 hits last night, but also struck out 13 times. The Royals counter with left-hander Kris Bubic (2-1, 3.97 ERA), who has been good, but at the same time unable to save Kansas City from a disastrous start. The Royals' bullpen has blown multiple leads, but the team’s bigger issue may well be a lack of timely hitting. Even with their five runs last night, the Royals have scored just 76 runs this season (3.3/gm).
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Orioles vs. Royals
- Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
- Time: 7:40PM EST
- Site: Kauffman Stadium
- City: Kansas City, MO
- Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, MASN, Royals.TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
The Latest Odds: Orioles vs. Royals
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Baltimore Orioles (+102), Kansas City Royals (-122)
- Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+156), Royals +1.5 (-190)
- Total: 9.0 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers: Orioles vs. Royals
Pitching matchup for April 21:
- Orioles: Shane Baz
Season Totals: 22.0 IP, 0-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 19K, 8 BB - Royals: Kris Bubic
Season Totals: 22.2 IP, 2-1, 3.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26K, 10 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Orioles vs. Royals
- Bobby Witt Jr. is 5-11 over his last 3 games and 8-20 over his last 5.
- Salvador Perez snapped a 2-12 streak with 3 hits in 6ABs last night
- Taylor Ward is 4-13 over his last 3 games
- Jeremiah Jackson has hit safely in 12 of 16 games in April (.305)
- Leody Tavares has hit safely in 8 of his last 9 games (9-26) with 9 RBIs
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Orioles vs. Royals
- The Royals are 8-15 on the Run Line this season
- The O’s are 9-14 on the Run Line this season
- The OVER has cashed 13 times in Baltimore’s 23 games this season (13-10)
- The OVER has cashed an MLB-worst 8 times in the Royals’ 23 games this season (8-15)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions: Orioles vs. Royals
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s game between the Orioles and the Royals:
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Orioles on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 9.0.
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How the NBA draft order was impacted by league's tiebreaking process
The league officially decided several crucial tiebreakers between teams on Monday, April 20 before the NBA draft lottery is held on May 10 in Chicago.
While the process is often referred to as a coin flip between teams that finished with the exact same record to determine the draft order, it is actually random number drawings conducted by the league. The tiebreakers between picks 15 through 60 are the official draft order. There were six total tiebreakers in the 2026 NBA Draft.
However, tiebreakers between teams picking in the lottery will not become set in stone until the draft lottery is concluded next month. Here were the most interesting results.
Biggest winner from the draft order tiebreakers
The Utah Jazz walked away as the team that benefited the most from this process.
They won the tiebreaker over the Sacramento Kings and will now have the fourth-best odds at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
With the fourth-best odds, the lowest the Jazz can pick in this class is now No. 8 overall. However, if they lost the tiebreaker and had the fifth-best odds, they would have had a 0.6 percent chance of falling to No. 9 overall.
That is significant because they traded a top-8 protected pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a Derrick Favors salary dump.
Now, it went from unlikely to impossible that Oklahoma City can get this pick from Utah. The Jazz now owe the Thunder a second-round pick in the 2027 NBA Draft.
What other lottery teams benefited from the tiebreaking process?
While the Jazz were the most impactful winners, others benefited from the tiebreakers as well.
The New Orleans Pelicans (who owe the better pick between their own and the Milwaukee Bucks pick to the Atlanta Hawks due to the Derik Queen trade) won the tiebreaker for the seventh-best odds over the Dallas Mavericks.
This means the Hawks improved their chances at a top-four pick via the Pelicans from 28.9 percent to 29.3 percent.
Which non-lottery teams benefited from the tiebreaking process?
The following picks were also determined via the NBA's tiebreakers:
- The 16th pick goes to the Memphis Grizzlies, via Phoenix Suns
- The 17th pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder, via Philadelphia 76ers
- The 18th pick goes to the Charlotte Hornets, via Orlando Magic
- The 19th pick goes to the Toronto Raptors
- The 20th pick goes to the San Antonio Spurs, via Atlanta Hawks
- The 22nd pick goes to the Philadelphia 76ers, via Houston Rockets
- The 23rd pick goes to the Atlanta Hawks, via Cleveland Cavaliers
- The 24th pick goes to the New York Knicks
- The 25th pick goes to the Los Angeles Lakers
The 2026 NBA Draft is held in Brooklyn, New York on June 23 and June 24 at the Barclays Center.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY Sports: How NBA tiebreaking process reshaped draft order
Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. hit by pitches twice vs. Nationals and leaves game
WASHINGTON (AP) — Ronald Acuña Jr. left the Atlanta Braves’ game against Washington in the sixth inning after Nationals starter Jake Irvin hit him with a pitch for a second time Monday night.
The Braves were trailing 2-0 when Irvin hit Acuña with a 92 mph fastball leading off the fourth. They were down 3-2 with no outs in the sixth when Irvin hit him with a 91 mph fastball.
The second pitch appeared to hit Acuña in the left hand, and he yelled in pain. The Braves said X-rays were negative and Acuña was day to day.
Acuña was in the on-deck circle when the sixth inning ended, but he didn’t come out for the bottom half. Eli White replaced him in right field.
Braves starter Bryce Elder hit Daylen Lile to start the bottom of the sixth, prompting umpires to issue warnings to both dugouts.
'Auston Matthews Wishes He Had Him': Maple Leafs Catch Strays During Raptors Playoff Game
The Toronto Maple Leafs are catching strays from the Toronto Raptors' media.
On Monday night, in Game 2 of the Raptors' first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Scottie Barnes was taken down by Jaylon Tyson. Toronto's RJ Barrett stepped in and gave Tyson a shove, which then created a commotion on the court.
Several players from both teams stepped in to help diffuse the situation.
Tempers are flaring in Cleveland 👀 pic.twitter.com/LBgQxRnYfA
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) April 21, 2026
While that was happening, TSN's NBA colour analyst, Jack Armstrong, said, "Auston Matthews wishes he had (Barrett) as a teammate. That's how you stand up for your guys."
Armstrong, of course, was referring to when Matthews got kneed by Anaheim Ducks defenseman Radko Gudas on Mar. 12, and none of the captain's Maple Leafs teammates immediately approached Gudas.
They followed it up in the third period with physical play and several goals, defeating the Ducks 6-4. But it wasn't a good look for a hockey club whose core has been together for quite some time.
"I mean, it was an unfortunate play, and I thought they responded in the third period," Matthews said during his end-of-season media availability on the hit and his teammates' immediate reaction.
The collision ended Matthews' season. He had surgery to repair a grade 3 MCL tear in his left leg seven days after the incident, but he will be ready for training camp next fall.
"Yeah, (rehab is) going good. Really good," Matthews added. "I'll be ready by next season and have a pretty normal summer, for the most part. I'm about a month down now, so a couple more months before I can kind of start to turn it up a little bit."
Maple Leafs' Reported Meeting With Mats Sundin 'More Exploratory Than Anything'Dreger adds that Sundin likely isn't willing to relocate to Toronto unless it's a prominent role within the organization.Matthews finished the season with 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games. Despite missing 22 games, Toronto's captain still finished fourth in team scoring, only behind Matthew Knies, John Tavares, and William Nylander.
The Raptors are two games into their series against the Cavs and have lost both games. They return to Toronto to play Game 3 of the series on Thursday night inside Scotiabank Arena.