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The Kansas City Royals are in a tailspin, and this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast does not look away. Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco take stock of a team that has two consecutive series sweeps and gone 3-10 over the last fifteen days, a stretch that has raised serious questions about accountability at every level of the organization.

The episode opens with a frank assessment of where the Royals sit in the MLB standings, including an uncomfortable comparison to the Detroit Tigers at the bottom of the AL Central. The offensive numbers are hard to look at: low OPS, poor contact angles, and a lack of consistency from players who were expected to anchor the lineup. Daniel Lynch’s struggles receive specific attention, and the hosts work through what the team’s exit-velocity and hitting-angle data suggest about whether these problems are correctable in-season or reflect something more deeply structural.

The pitching staff is in no better shape. The team ERA and bullpen performance both come under scrutiny, alongside injury updates that continue to limit the coaching staff’s options. Jacob and Jeremy address the growing calls for managerial accountability head-on, placing the current situation in historical context, examining what firing a manager mid-season has and has not accomplished for teams in similar positions, and what that conversation reveals about where real responsibility lies.

The front office does not escape examination either. Roster management, the lack of meaningful transactions, and the broader ownership and organizational decisions that have shaped this roster are all part of a candid conversation about what it will actually take to build a competitive team in Kansas City again, whether through trades, spending, or a more patient rebuild oriented toward 2027 and beyond.

A look around the rest of the league offers some relief, with notable performances from Shohei Ohtani and a resurgent Mike Trout providing context for what elite baseball looks like right now. The episode also marks a significant milestone, Michael Wacha’s 300th career start, before closing with a personal gaming recommendation and some final reflections on what, if anything, still offers reason for optimism this season.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

The New York Mets (26-33) travel across North America to play the Seattle Mariners (31-29) in a three-game series at T-Mobile Park. The series sees both teams arrive with winning streaks of four and six games, respectively, and it kicks off the Mets’ final West Coast swing of the year.

The last few weeks have been very strange for the Mets, who swept the Tigers, took two of three from the Yankees, split four with the Nationals, got swept by the Marlins, lost two of three to the Reds, and then swept the same Marlins that swept them a week earlier. There isn’t a ton to read into these patterns either, aside from a very simple note that seems too simplistic to even commit to print: when the Mets score runs, they win ballgames.

In their last 19 games, if the Mets scored four or more runs, they are 9-2. When they score three or fewer, they are 2-6. In the series where the Marlins swept them last weekend, they scored two runs in three games; in the series where they swept the Marlins, they scored 25 runs in three games.

If I had answers about specifically why the Mets could or could not score runs, I’d be calling Citi Field on the reg trying to get hired in the Mets’ front office. But there are a few good signs that, maybe, some of the offensive fluctuations may be evening out a bit, starting with the Mets’ two young outfielders, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge.

I know that batting average is not the best indicator of offensive success, but it gives us a good baseline of just how Benge has improved over the past month. On May 1, Benge was batting .181. Heading into play on June 1, he’s batting .253. Over that same time, his on-base percentage went from .238 to .318 and his slugging from .266 to .359. These are not All-Star numbers just yet, but they’re showing marked improvement and consistency, the two things that are most important when measuring rookie performance.

Ewing has about a third of the games under his belt that Benge does, and his offensive talents are revealing themselves in different ways than Benge’s are. Ewing is drawing walks, hitting singles up the middle, and running the bases extraordinarily well. He’s probably not going to have the power that Benge has shown, but he doesn’t need to in order to be an exciting and productive player.

Both players’ defense in the outfield has shone, and Gary Cohen said on the broadcast on Sunday how it seems like the pair are preventing extra-base hits multiple times a game by running down fly balls and playing smart when the balls do drop in. With Juan Soto in left, you’re still going to have some interesting moments in the outfield, but they’ve more or less stabilized center and right field for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of Soto, he has been on a tear as of late that is making even the Soto haters out there take notice. While he is still clearly banged up, he is compensating in other ways. He didn’t hit a single double in May (though he did hit a triple in Colorado), but he’s hit ten home runs and has collected a hit in all but six games in the month. His walk and strikeout numbers are nearly identical, and he’s begun to pick his spots to steal bases again, though another 30+ steals season seems unlikely this year.

But it goes beyond just the Mets’ outfield, in terms of offensive leveling up as of late. Bit players like Eric Wagaman and Hayden Senger have contributed in wins, Jared Young has returned with his stroke intact, and Luis Torrens keeps hitting the ball the other way with men on base.

However, the Mets’ infield is still somewhat in disarray, offensively. Of the four regular position players, only Brett Baty has a positive bWAR on the club. Mark Vientos has been better at first than many suspected, but still isn’t producing nearly enough. Marcus Semien has leveled out a little, but is still looking more like his miserable 2025 at the plate than his earlier success, confirming many fans’ fears about his acquisition.

That leaves Bo Bichette, who just cannot get his season going. In the first two games against the Nationals last week, Bichette went five-for-ten with three home runs, seven RBIs, and a walk. After those two games, it seemed like he was ready to break out a bit. Unfortunately, he’s only collected eight hits in the 11 games since, none for extra bases, and drove in just three runs. Driving in runs is what Bichette’s entire career has been based on, and so to see him not do that is very, very strange.

The good news for the club is that help is theoretically on the way. While Mike Tauchman seems to be rehabbing in the Bermuda Triangle, the rest of the Mets’ offensive injured players all seem to be on their way back. Jorge Polanco has been playing in Binghamton, hitting .400/.571/.1.000 in 7 plate appearances with one dinger. Whether or not he can play first base is still an open question, but getting another competent major league caliber bat in the lineup is huge. While he theoretically could play another dozen and a half games in the minors, it seems likely that Polanco will be back on the club sometime in the next week to ten days.

Both Franciscos, Lindor and Alvarez, have begun baseball activities and both hope to be back in June, though neither is exactly a lock to do so at this point. But just knowing that there is a limit to the amount of balls that Bichette will muff at short before Lindor returns is a blessing.

As for the pitching side of things, the bullpen has continued to be strong, even with the poor performance and demotion of Tobias Myers factored in. When David Peterson comes out of the ‘pen, as he did on Sunday, he’s looked like a totally different pitcher than the starter we’ve seen this season. Devin Williams gave up a game-losing grand slam in Miami, but otherwise, he and Luke Weaver have locked down the back-end of the bullpen nicely. The lefties have been good, Huascar Brazobán continues to be impressive, and Austin Warren is establishing himself as an important piece.

Nolan McLean has struggled for his last three starts, but made it work yesterday despite walking the farm. Christian Scott and Jonah Tong are both showing what made them so highly regarded as prospects as they get themselves into form. Freddy Peralta is exactly as advertised: a good, not great, five inning starter. We will see how Sean Manaea does when given the ball for a start sometime soon. And with Kodai Senga making rehab starts, there will be that adventure beginning again shortly.

All of this is to say that the Mets of June 1st are not markedly different than the Mets of April 30, arguably at the lowest point of the season thus far, but the roster is starting to come into shape a little better right now. With help on the horizon, young talent pulling their weight, and Soto being the superstar he is, the club still has a chance, albeit an outside one, of returning to relevancy at some point this month. With summer not officially starting for another few weeks, Spring hope still springs eternal.

On the Mariners side, the season started out fairly rough for them, as they didn’t get above .500 until this weekend against the Diamondbacks. But because the American League West is a bad division this year, the Mariners find themselves in first place, two and a half up on both the Rangers and Athletics. A big part of that early season dry spell was Cal Raleigh, after a career year last season, turning into a pumpkin in 2026 before landing on the Injured List. Josh Naylor is pulling a similar act so far, and the M’s offense misses those two big pieces.

That said, the Mariners’ offense isn’t struggling too mightily. They’re the ninth best offense in baseball as of press time, and they’ve been getting good production up and down their lineup from folks like Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez, and Cole Young. Luke Raley has hit 13 home runs already, with J Rod right behind him with 12.

Seattle is also seventh in pitching, with a rotation that looks solid, if unspectacular thus far. Emerson Hancock is having he best season of the bunch, putting up a 2.78 ERA over 11 starts, but aside from Luis Castillo, the entire rotation is looking solid. Unfortunately, the Mets are missing Castillo this series.

Monday, June 1: Austin Warren (but really Sean Manaea) vs Emerson Hancock, 9:40pm EDT on SNY

Warren (2026): 19.1 IP, 22 K, 9 BB, 1 HR, 1.40 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 36 ERA-
Manaea (2026): 34.0 IP, 38 K, 15 BB, 3 HR, 5.56 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 142 ERA-

The Mets are going with an opener ahead of Sean Manaea, who has been better in May as the mop-up guy out of the bullpen. His fastball velocity has been ticking up, as have his strikeouts, while limiting big innings against him. In his last three appearances, he’s thrown a collective ten and two-thirds innings, giving up four earned runs while striking out 12 and walking four. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but if he can give the team four or five innings of competitive ball behind an opener, that’s not nothing.

Hancock (2026): 64.2 IP, 63 K, 15 BB, 8 HR, 2.78 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 72 ERA-

Aside from a rough start against the White Sox on the 8th, Hancock has had a great May. In his last start against the Athletics, he one-hit them over six innings. He had a huge game against the Royals on the 2nd where he struck out 14, walking none, and allowing just one run. But aside from that gaudy strikeout game, he’s been a steady, if not dazzling, starter for Seattle. He’s pitched at least five innings in every start, and only has one game where he’s surrendered more than three earned runs.

Tuesday, June 2: TBD (but probably Jonah Tong) vs Logan Gilbert, 9:40pm EDT on SNY

Tong (2026):  6.2 IP, 3 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 0.00 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 0 ERA-

It is unclear if Tong is going behind an opener like Manaea, but Tong is also working to prove his readiness for a rotation spot. He wasn’t fantastic in Triple-A where he reportedly was working on secondary stuff, and has walked too many folks in his limited MLB time this season thus far. But in terms of stuff, he’s right up there with McLean, and the Mets are limited in their starting pitching options right now. In his second appearance, he gave up an unearned run on an error by [checks notes] himself, one of the quirks of baseball scoring, but otherwise has avoided any runs scoring on his watch thus far. That’s tough when you’re walking almost a batter an inning.

Gilbert (2026): 68.1 IP, 69 K, 16 BB, 11 HR, 3.69 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 92 ERA-

You’re going to notice a trend with M’s starters: they’re all throwing quality starts without jaw-dropping numbers. Kirby is coming off of two scoreless outings where he’s struck out six apiece. He’s been very good in nine of his 12 starts, and in two of those bad starts, it was the long ball that did him in. Of his 11 home runs given up this season, seven of them came in two games.

Tuesday, June 3: Freddy Peralta vs George Kirby, 3:40pm EDT on SNY

Peralta (2026):  66.0 IP, 68 K, 28 BB, 8 HR, 2.97 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 76 ERA-

When the Mets brought over Peralta, the knock on him was that he was usually nothing more than a five-inning pitcher. As a Met, that has more or less been true as well, though he’s made a few appearances later in games, but it rarely goes very well. But in those first five innings, he’s usually good. He’s in a little bit of a rough stretch right now, even though the team has won three of his last four starts. His strikeouts are still there, but he’s giving up runs in bunches.

Kirby (2026): 74.0 IP, 59 K, 17 BB, 7 HR, 3.77 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 98 ERA-

Of all three Mariners’ starter this series, Kirby is in the middle of the worst stretch.He’s given up 13 earned runs over his last three starts, only striking out 13 in that same stretch. Not that Kirby is a huge strikeout pitcher, but you never want your strikeouts and earned runs to match over a stretch of more than a game. He’s currently leading the league in hits, but most of those have been singles.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (23-34) lost 5-1 (BOX SCORE)

McPherson got the start and went 5 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning scoring a run on a Strahm RBI single. The pen allowed a few more runs and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 5-1.

Note: Bolton has a 2.25 ERA in Triple-A.

• Joey Loperfido, LF: 2-for-4
• Shay Whitcomb, RF: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Kellen Strahm, CF: 1-for-4, RBI
• Tommy Sacco, SS: 1-for-3, SB

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Tom Cosgrove, LHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Cody Bolton, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Brandon Bielak, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (24-27) won 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got the scoring started in the 2nd inning scoring 2 runs on a Sullivan walk and Whitaker groundout. Dombroski started for the Hooks and allowed 4 runs over 4.2 innings. The Hooks picked up 2 more runs in the 5th on a Spence RBI triple and a run on a fielder’s choice. They scored 2 more runs in the 7th on a Spence RBI single and Sullivan sac bunt. The pen allowed a run in the 9th but they held on for the 6-5 win.

Note: Perez has a 3.93 ERA this season.

• Trevor Austin, 3B: 3-for-5, 2 R
• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 3-for-5, 3 R
• Lucas Spence, DH: 2-for-3, R, 3B, 2 RBI
• Joseph Sullivan, CF: 0-for-2, 3 RBI, BB

• Trey Dombroski, LHP: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (11-39) lost 5-3 (BOX SCORE)

Howard got the start for Asheville and was solid allowing 2 runs over 5 innings of work. After Collins allowed a run in the 6th, the Asheville offense responded with 3 runs to tie it on a Garcia RBI double, Daudet RBI groundout and Lytle solo home run. Carr allowed two runs in relief and the offense was unable to rally as Asheville fell 5-3.

Note: Powell is hitting .303 this season.

• Caden Powell, DH: 1-for-4, 2B
• Ethan Frey, CF: 0-for-1, 3 BB, SB
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 1-for-3, BB
• Alejandro Nunez, SS: 1-for-3, R
• John Garcia, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, SB
• Mason Lytle, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI

• Dylan Howard, RHP: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Bryce Collins, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Jordan Carr, LHP: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (23-28) won 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning scoring a run on an Alvarez RBI double. They got another run in the 2nd inning on a Ramirez solo home run. Smith started for the Woodpeckers and was solid allowing 2 runs over 7 innings. The Woodpeckers took the lead in the 9th on a Ramirez RBI groundout. Mathiesen closed it out with 2 scoreless frames as the Woodpeckers won 3-2.

Note: Alvarez has five consecutive multi-hit games.

• Xavier Neyens, DH: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Juan Sierra, LF: 1-for-4, R
• German Ramirez, SS: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Camilo Diaz, 2B: 1-for-3, SB

• Aubrey Smith, RHP: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Ryan Mathiesen, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K (WIN)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

It’s not entirely true that the Cubs had a 10-game winning streak during the month of May. They, in fact, had the last eight of 10 straight wins to start May. So the reality ends up being that the Cubs started the month with eight straight wins. Then they finished the month 13-16 overall. By itself, that 13-16 record isn’t devastating. Certainly, a number of playoff teams through the years have had losing months. A 5-16 stretch is spectacularly bad. Not season-ending. But, all of their early momentum appears dead in the water.

Ahead, the June schedule is about as light as it can be. They have 27 games scheduled, pretty evenly split, 14 at home and 13 on the road. They have 12 games, home and home, with the Giants and Rockies who sit at the bottom of the National League and among the worst teams in MLB. This is the opportunity for the Cubs to wipe away May and reassert themselves as contenders in the National League. If they don’t win something like 18 games in the month of June, it’s hard to imagine them staying in contention when things toughen up in July. 18 wins would get them to 50 wins before the start of July.

They should hopefully continue getting healthier as June progresses. It looks like Matthew Boyd should return in the week ahead to reclaim the spot Jordan Wicks is presently occupying. It’s not a moment too soon, either. I continue to advocate for trying to break young potential starters in by way of multi-inning relief outings. Accordingly, I’m not entirely against Wicks getting a shot in low leverage spots to see if throwing max effort can help at all. It is increasingly unlikely he’ll ever get any long-term shot as a starter in the Cub organization at this point.

With Wicks struggling early, Ethan Roberts was pressed into the game early on in a bit of an unusual situation. Roberts allowed an inherited runner from Wicks and then two of his own. This is the roughest outing of the year for Roberts. A messy situation like that isn’t the ideal spot for him. But you hate it for Roberts. He’s been so good this year and had earned seeing a little bit more leverage. If he locks it down there, maybe the game plays out a little differently. But it wasn’t to be.

As the game wore on, the Cubs generated a little bit of traffic, but other than an Alex Bregman homer, they couldn’t get any kind of offense going. The Cubs had seven hits and drew just one walk. It wasn’t enough and they really didn’t apply much pressure on the Cardinals. Another disappointing loss in a disappointing month. Frustrating.

Three Positives:

• Michael Conforto came off the bench in this one and had a double in two plate appearances. He was one of the few Cubs who had a really terrific May.
• Alex Bregman supplied the offense, hitting a solo homer.
• Phil Maton threw a clean inning and struck out a batter.

Game 60, May 31: Cardinals 5, Cubs 1 (32-28)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Conforto (.051). 1-2, 2B
• Hero: Trent Thornton (.015). 2 IP, 7 BF, BB, K
• Sidekick: Phil Maton (.009). IP, 3 BF, K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jordan Wicks (-.149). 2 IP, 10 BF, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, K (L 0-2)
• Goat: Ethan Roberts (-.133). IP, 6 BF, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.068). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Alec Burleson faced Ethan Roberts with runners on first and second and two outs in the third inning, the Cardinals up two. He singled, driving in a run charged to Wicks. (.084)

Cubs Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong singled with a runner on first and no outs for the Cubs in the first. Such a nice start to the game, a pair of first inning singles. Unfortunately, both runners were stranded. (.055) Michael Conforto’s double with a runner on first and one out in the seventh also registered the same WPA. The two high points of the day for the Cubs, but no runs came from either situation.

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 59 Winner: Ben Brown received 183 of 233 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +21
• Ian Happ +10.5
• Nico Hoerner/Michael Conforto +10
• Alex Bregman/Ben Brown +9.5
• Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton -8
• Jameson Taillon -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -13
• Seiya Suzuki -28.5

Current Win Pace: 86.4 wins

Up Next: A much needed off day on Monday and then the vagabond A’s come to town Tuesday for a three-game set at Wrigley Field. The A’s are 28-31, but 17-14 on the road. Their road record suggests that the team might be a little bit better than their record suggests.

Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.37, 60.1 IP) looks set for the opener. Taillon was 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA in May, so he needs a strong bounce back. That has to start with keeping the ball in the park. He allowed 10 homers in just 25.2 innings in May. All together, it’s 19 homers in 55.2 innings on the season. The Cubs don’t have enough healthy options, but his spot in the rotation has to be in jeopardy. I’d be inclined to replace Jordan Wicks on the roster with Javier Assad, giving the option of going to Assad early in this one if things don’t click fast for Taillon.

23-year-old Gage Jump (0-1, 7.20, 5 IP) looks to make his second career start. The 73rd pick in the 2024 draft by the A’s debuted at home against the Mariners and allowed nine hits and a walk in just five innings. Things weren’t massively better for him in the minors this year either. Jump allowed 22 runs, 19 earned in 38 innings across nine starts. The number to circle was 56 strikeouts in 38 innings. So the stuff exists. It’s a matter of him learning to harness.

The Cubs need to get back to that patient approach and apply a lot of pressure. Jump throws left-handed. Notwithstanding the rough performance Sunday night, the Cubs have been one of the better teams in MLB against lefty starters this year. By just about any metric, the A’s bullpen has been a bottom 10 one in MLB. If they can keep these games close, they should be able to pull games out late.

Time to get back locked in.

Worcester: L, 0-1 (BOX SCORE)

The second home run of the series for George Lombard Jr., a solo shot, accounted for the only run in the game in this finale against the RailRiders (Yankees AAA). Alec Gamboa went four innings giving up three hits but, in the end, took the decision loss due to the WooSox’s inability to generate an extra-base hit or any run whatsoever. All in all, Adam Kloffenstein had the WooSox’s number as he went six scoreless and the WooSox as a whole struck out 15 times. Fun fact: Kloffenstein was once the 1-for-1 return from the Blue Jays to the Cardinals for a name we all remember: Jordan Hicks.

Portland: W, 3-1 (BOX SCORE)

Gage Ziehl had a near identical line for the Sea Dogs against the Rumble Ponies (Mets AA) as Gamboa did for the WooSox, allowing a home run, two other hits, and going four innings. The bullpen had just a touch more run support at the right time than the Triple-A squad, as even though Portland managed just five hits, all singles, they benefitted from two Binghamton errors, one that scored what would become the go-ahead two runs in the seventh. Cooper Adams had a strong nine-out save with five strikeouts to finish this one out.

Greenville: W, 5-3 (BOX SCORE)

Whatever the rest of the farm’s opposition was throwing to cause so much offensive ineptitude, the Drive got to Asheville (Astros High-A) in the form of four home runs, half of those coming from Jack Winnay, as home runs accounted for all of Greenville’s runs. Kyson Witherspoon settled down in his first pro scoreless appearance and kept the three walks he issued at bay. Danny Kirwin came in to pitch in the seventh and laid down the law for long enough for Winnay and Isaiah Jackson to each drift some balls over the wall and allow the Drive to take the lead in the eighth.

Salem: W, 1-0 (BOX SCORE)

And finally, another 1-0 game. Amidst an afternoon full of struggles in advancing runners, the victory against Hickory (Rangers A) would come all the way back in the top of the first. With a double, Andruw Mussett scored Andrews Opata, the only batter in the entire game to get multiple hits. And, while Hickory’s pitching was fine enough to not allow a walk and just six scattered hits, Salem’s pitching was just a bit better, as they only allowed two hits on the day.

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 9-6 in the second half of May. They went 9-4 in the first half of May, so it was kind of a dropoff. Really, it was a dropoff from what they did in April too… but given that this team probably wasn’t going to win 110-plus games, I’m not sure it was a reasonable expectation for them to keep running some kind of absurd winning percentage in every two-week stretch for the entire season. They may even have (gasp!) a losing week, or a month close to .500 or whatever. It happens. (Though maybe not to this team? We’ll see.)

9-6 is still good, mind. It was a top-ten record over that stretch, it’s equivalent to a 97-win season. It feels weird to be talking up that sort of performance, but that’s the bar the Braves set earlier.

The Braves continue to maintain a nine-game lead in the NL East. The Brewers and Dodgers had a good run in late May, so the nine-game lead is no longer something absurd like “bigger than the sum of all other division leads combined.” But, the Braves still have a 1.5-game lead on the Dodgers for best record in baseball, their playoff odds are approaching unity, and they actually gained half a game on the Phillies despite “only” playing at a 97-win pace for two weeks.

Let’s quickly talk stats. For this two-month period, the Braves were:

• 13th in position player fWAR, because…
• …despite being fourth in xwOBA, they were only 14th in wOBA (the fourth-biggest underperformance in this period). It’s a testament to how this team’s fortunes just feel different that this unpleasant input-output mis-sync didn’t lead to a bad two weeks.
• 11th in pitching fWAR, with ranks of 13th, 11th, and sixth in ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, respectively. Yes, after avoiding those issues for a while, HR/FB came back and punished the Braves a bit. Again, amazing that they didn’t get derailed as a result, just… won slightly less.
• 16th in rotation fWAR, sixth in bullpen fWAR.

For May as a whole:

• Seventh in position player fWAR (seventh in defense, ninth in wRC+, sixth in xwOBA)
• 13th in pitching fWAR (sixth, 14th, sixth in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, respectively)
• 17th in rotation fWAR, 10th in bullpen fWAR

Using game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone something like 8-7 in these 15 games. They did a little better. This wasn’t a particularly tough stretch; the game in which they had the lowest pre-game odds was a Martin Perez-Braxton Garrett matchup in Miami, and they won that handily, 8-4. On the flip side, they somehow lost the game against Jake Irvin and the Nats, 2-0, which was their second-biggest upset allowed this season. Their projected win total barely budged, from 94.5 to 94.8.

How are the Braves doing for the season?

For the season as a whole, through May:

• Fourth in position player fWAR (fifth in defense, third in hitting inputs and outputs)
• 12th in pitching fWAR (17th rotation, seventh bullpen | second, 13th, and 10th in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, respectively).

Basically, as the story has been for pretty much the whole year, this is a team with great hitting and defense and a strong bullpen, all of which prop up some pretty meh starting pitching.

The team’s Pythagorean and BaseRuns records are within two wins of their actual record (-1 Pythagorean, +2 BaseRuns). Both are top three in baseball. As a rejoinder from the last time I did this, it’s hard to find new, high-level stuff to say in these because the Braves are chugging a long. They’re good, yay. Rejoice.

How are the hitters doing?

Well, we’re at least at the point where the grayshaded fWAR/600 column in the “through May” isn’t ridiculous… for some players… the one on the left side is still not something to take seriously.

The main message here, I guess, is that the Braves persevered and succeeded with a performing-like-stars (Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Jorge Mateo), performing-like-scrubs (Ha-Seong Kim and the fill-in catchers) approach. On top of that, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Dominic Smith really didn’t do anything these last two weeks, though at least Olson managed a pretty good xwOBA. The next-man-up-ness of “who’s gonna come through today” has been a big part of the season, and Acuña and Yastrzemski stepped up right as a bunch of other guys stepped down (or were pressed into duty and were horrible).

Due to needing to include the catchers and Kim on these charts, they kind of lose granularity — but really, the story here is that the hitters have started to clump, whether talking about the last few weeks or the season as a whole.

The left-hand chart basically shows you how the “hit really well” quartet carried the last two weeks amid meh-to-bad performance from everyone else. The right-hand chart, which is the season to date, shows that there are really two different clumps: successful bats, and meh bats. There’s a little bit of variation in who is/isn’t getting unlucky on balls in play, but no one is off in a corner somewhere… except the catchers and Kim, which, woof. Chadwick Tromp had some moments, but get some hits, guys. If I told you before the season that, through May, Austin Riley and Mauricio Dubon would have too-close-to-distinguish bubbles on these charts, you’d either be really excited or really bummed. It turns out that the latter is the correct feeling in this regard — Riley had a nice run in early May, but went back to more-meh-than-we’d-like over the last two weeks.

On the season as a whole, Acuña continues to massively underperform his-now-.400 xwOBA, and is counterbalanced by both Ozzie Albies and Yastrzemski getting very fortunate for their worse-than-mediocre batting inputs. Yastrzemski continued to not only defy his inputs, but make sure that happened at key moments — he finished the month as the team leader in WPA, something also true over this two-week stretch. Also, Kim was last in WPA, which makes sense because it’s hard to get any positive WPA when nothing good happens when you’re at the dish.

How are the pitchers doing?

At this point, the rotation has shaken out to Chris Sale being dominant (duh), Bryce Elder being really good (whuh?), Spencer Strider and Martin Perez hanging in there (also whuh), and Grant Holmes bringing up the rear, in a way. For the handful of starts over the last two weeks, Sale kept doing his thing, Elder and Perez were mediocre, while Strider and Holmes actually pitched pretty well but got eaten alive by homers (in a way that wasn’t really happening to the team earlier).

The Braves can probably keep this going for a while, but it does lead you to wonder whether they will try to play for a big-time rental starter at the Trade Deadline. Theoretically, they should get Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach back eventually, but it’s unclear whether that will turn out as fantastically as it could. If Elder actually keeps doing his new-and-improved thing then I guess the Braves would have few qualms about letting him start a playoff game, though he’s been interspersing more problematic starts into the game log lately, and the Braves could probably fake a really effective frontline starter outing by mixing and matching Holmes, Perez, and Didier Fuentes or something. Strider remains a wild card (by peripherals, he’s had three great starts, two poor ones, and a meh one — though he also got blasted homer-wise in one of his great ones). So, a lot of eyes on how Elder and Strider navigate the next two months, I guess.

Bullpen-wise, it was a nice bounceback for Tyler Kinley, who struggled in early May — he was really the standout over these last two weeks, leading the team’s pitchers (including starters) in WPA and putting together a beautiful 32/13/57 line in seven outings. Robert Suarez had a weird month: 0/55/80 in his first six outings, which included five shutdowns and a low-leverage outing, and then 37/119/110 in his next six outings, with just one shutdown and one meltdown.

For the season as a whole, Dylan Lee is now up to 1.0 fWAR; he and Raisel Iglesias have video game-y numbers (32/35/61 for Lee, 25/30/65 for Iglesias). Lee, Iglesias, Suarez, and Fuentes (who I guess started one game) have more fWAR than any non-Sale, non-Elder starter.

See you in mid-June.

Hickory starter Evan Siary allowed one run in five innings of work, striking out seven. Aneudis Mejia threw a shutout inning. Owen Proksch threw two scoreless innings with a strikeout.

Hector Osorio had one of the two Crawdad hits.

Hickory box score

D.J. McCarthy went three innings in his start for Hub City, allowing six runs, including four home runs, striking out five and walking two. Case Matter faced four batters, striking out two and walking two. Joey Danielson struck out one and walked one in a scoreless inning.

Gleider Figuereo was 4 for 4 with a homer.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Dylan MacLean allowed one run in five innings, striking out seven and walking two. Bryan Magdaleno struck out one in a scoreless inning. Wilian Bormie struck out the one batter he faced.

Rafe Perich was 2 for 4 with a homer. Dylan Dreiling had a walk and a stolen base. Keith Jones II had a hit and a stolen base. Arturo Disla had a pair of hits.

Frisco box score

Ryan Brasier started for Round Rock and went one inning, walking three, giving up a homer and allowing three runs. Jose Corniell walked four and struck out two in 3.2, allowing three runs. Thomas Ireland allowed two runs in 2.1 IP, striking out two. Joe Ross and Michel Otanez each threw a scoreless inning.

Wyatt Langford continued his rehab assignment, going 0 for 3 while playing left field. Cody Freeman was 2 for 5 with a homer. Cam Cauley had a double and a stolen base.

Round Rock box score

The NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, who have acquired their 40th win on May 30th when it took them until July 9th last year, have made half an interesting active roster move on their off day.

Anthony Molina has been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. Molina was called up for the weekend series but never used. He will return to Gwinnett along with Carlos Carrasco apparently. Carlos Carrasco has been selected to the Braves and designated for assignment three times already. He will park the Cookie Carrasco Caravan in Lawrenceville for now until needed to soak up some innings. Today is an off day for both the Braves and Stripers and no corresponding move has been announced for either team. Rolddy Munoz looks to be the most appealing Gwinnett Striper on the Braves’ 40-man roster at the moment. Munoz has a 2.72 FIP for the season in Triple-A, and has a 13/6 K/BB rate with no homers in May. Also, Hurston Waldrep starts rehab today.

Hurston’s 2026 season has yet to get off the ground, as he required surgery for loose bodies in his elbow. I don’t believe we know the timeline for Waldrep, but things are definitely happening.

One of my main memories from the 2010 World Series season was being stuck in Las Vegas while the Giants played a 4-game series in Milwaukee. I’m not a gambler and I’m not a dirtbag and so Sin City doesn’t really do it for me and so all I had to look forward to was the Giants trying to hold their season together.

After dropping 3 of 4 in Colorado (the finale being the infamous game where Bruce Bochy pinch-ran Eli Whiteside for Buster Posey), they went to Milwaukee and swept a 4-game series to kickoff the second half of the schedule, going 51-30 the rest of the season. I don’t pretend that this series will turn around the long-dead 2026 Giants, but after yesterday’s fluky win, maybe rolling right into another series against a much better team gives them some added fight they’ve been missing all year long.

Easier said than done, of course, as the Brewers are — once again — one of the best teams in the sport. After running a 19-7 record in May, they have the fourth-best record overall (35-21) and run differential in the sport (+74) and the sixth-best home record (19-11). Their 268 runs scored is just 11th, but they’re tied with the Dodgers for #1 in pitching value (+9.8 fWAR). They’re 3rd in team ERA with 3.17. The Giants are none of these things and it’s almost unfair to the Brewers that they have to risk their better roster getting hurt or momentarily embarrassed by a team that probably should take the rest of the decade off. On the other hand, the beauty of baseball is that top teams can be embarrassed by stinky teams from time to time.

So, on paper, this should be an easy sweep for the Brewers with nothing new learned about our unbearably awful 2026 Giants, but at the same time, either in success or failure, this could be a valuable bonding experience for the team, perhaps as it was all the way back in 2010. Road trips are usually where fractured teams find their footing — or fall apart completely! I say all this because the vibes at the end of yesterday’s win were great and it was encouraging to see the players all pulling for each other. In previous wins like that, they’d usually follow it up with an off day. Not so here.

Yes, yes, the big story in this one will be that the Giants will face their former top pitching prospect, Kyle Harrison, who has bounced around since they traded him for Rafael Devers. The other little stories here:

• This is the first 4-game home series for the Brewers in 2026.
• The Brewers are “just” 12-9 against sub-.500 teams.
• Forgetting yesterday’s win, the Giants have average 4.53 runs/game over their last 15 while the Brewers have averaged just 3.93. The difference? The Brewers have allowed just 3 runs per game while the Giants have averaged 5.8.

Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (23-36) at Milwaukee Brewers (35-21)
Where: American Family Field | Milwaukee, Wisconsin
When: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday at 4:40pm PT, Thursday at 11:10am PT
National broadcasts: FS1 (Monday).

Projected starters
Monday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-5, 3.30 ERA) vs. Shane Drohan (LHP 2-1, 2.63 ERA)
Tuesday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-2, 4.34 ERA) vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP 6-1, 1.57 ERA)
Wednesday: Logan Webb (RHP 2-4, 4.82 ERA) vs. TBD
Thursday: Adrian Houser (RHP 2-5, 5.59 ERA) vs. TBD

Players to watch

Brewers

Kyle Harrison: The Brewers were able to get Harrison to adjust his arm angle and that has made all the difference. We’re approaching a year since this Eno Sarris post which laid bare “the trouble with Harrison”:

Of course, our Steven Kennedy was all over this when he broke down Harrison’s arsenal early last year, too, but the fact is that Harrison’s initial ace projection when the Giants drafted him had run into reality in such a way that the Giants moving on from him (and the Red Sox afterwards) only made sense. Of course, the Brewers are known for their pitching lab and look at what they’ve done (apologies in advance for Mark DeRosa being in this):

This season, he’s averaging 94.9 mph with his four-seamers (up +2 mph from his Giants days), and is slurve (which Steven had labeled his problematic pitch) has a .109 batting average against in 255 instances of it being thrown. A 27.4% Whiff rate right after his four-seamer (30.8%). Could the Giants have helped him make this adjustment? Probably not. If it were easy to do what the Brewers do then more teams could do it. Instead, the Giants got Rafael Devers for him and that’ll just have to do.

Andrew Vaughn & Jake Bauers: Vaughn hit the IL and Christian Yelich, too, and this gave longtime backup/platoon Bauers some run and he ran with the playing time, hitting .295/.354/.523 over the last 2 weeks with 3 homers and 11 RBI in his last 12 games. Meanwhile, Vaughn missed all of April and came back in May to slug .351/.431/.526 in 65 PA. He hit just 1 home run but 7 doubles in 20 hits.

Christian Yelich & Jackson Chourio: He has just a .710 OPS (58 PA) since returning from the IL on May 12 from a groin strain but is a notorious Giants Killer, hitting .293/.374/.479 in 68 career games. Meanwhile, Chourio was a young player signed to a massive extension last season (a trend that picked up this past offseason across the sport) and dropped a bit from a .791 OPS player to .770. He’s at .721 so far this season. Can the Giants tiptoe around this talent or will his bat wake up against them and spark a slightly struggling lineup?

Brewers’ bullpen: Milwaukee has the second-best bullpen in baseball for value (2.9 fWAR) behind only the Padres (3.9). Lefty Aaron Ashby is 9-0! There’s a little weakness in the closer role, with flamethrowing Abner Uribe having ceded the role to veteran Trevor Megill, but this is a tough group, and the Giants might once again find themselves unable to mount a comeback after the 5th inning.

Giants

Willy Adames: Last season, he had an overall great time against his former team, with a pair of homers in 7 hits and 5 walks against 4 strikeouts (.269/.375/.500 in 32 PA) in 7 games. Over his last 15 games, he’s hitting .311/.358/.672 (67 PA) with 5 doubles, a triple, 5 homers, and 5 walks against 14 strikeouts. Remarkably, it was almost immediately after I published this post about Willy Adames being the captain of the team that he started to annoy fans and pundits alike with his too-friendly ways with the opposition and his overall brain-less play in the field. Will he have 30 errors this season as Tim Kawakami surmised in the San Francisco Standard last week or is this return to Milwaukee, coupled with his hitting hot streak, a pivot point in his season?

Logan Webb: It was a questionable decision to bring the Giants’ most important player back from the IL in Colorado of all places, but the move worked out okay. He wasn’t good in his start against the Rockies, but allowing just 1 run in 4.1 innings wasn’t bad, either. Okay, you know… he was more good than bad. The Brewers’ lineup will be another big test for him, though.

Luis Arraez: .375/.424/.571 over his last 15 games (67 PA) with 3 doubles, a triple, a pair of homers, and 9 RBI along with 4 walks and just 2 strikeouts. For his career, he’s just a .264 hitter when facing the Brewers, and in Milwaukee, just .274 in 17 games (68 PA). With the Brewers starting at least two lefties in this four-game series, figure he won’t be white hot, but his bat still might be critical.

Giants’ bullpen: 25th in MLB by value (-0.2 fWAR) despite a 3.69 ERA (12th) overall. They’ve also held a not-terrible 3.85 ERA on the road, too, and with a Brewers lineup that is more “fine” than “awesome,” this might be a decent matchup for them to hold a narrow lead late in the game.

Tony Vitello watch

Milwaukee’s manager Pat Murphy was kinda-sorta known as a “college coach” before taking the Brewers job, but unlike Tony Vitello, he was a pro (signed with the Giants in 1982 and played in the minors), a special assistant in an MLB front office, a minor league manager, and finally a bench coach on a major league staff before being named as manager. Far from the same, but we’ll hear the comparison being made — and drawn as being much closer than it is — at least once this week (probably on the national telecast).

Prediction time

My last two times in the prediction corner have been spectacular flameouts (won’t get swept by Diamondbacks and the Giants will hit at least 5 home runs in Colorado). Will this be another one? The Giants won’t have double digit strikeouts against Kyle Harrison in Tuesday’s game. They’ve only struck out 10+ times in 13 games this season. Now, Harrison might K nine Giants or something and the Brewers’ stellar bullpen carves up the rest, but the former top pitching prospect of the Giants will, at best, only mildly embarrass them.