This was supposed to be the year that the Orlando Magic vaulted into a tier of true contenders in the Eastern Conference. After winning 47 games and earning the 5th seed in the playoffs in 2023-24, they posted a 41-win season and a 7th seed in 2024-25. Boasting the 5th-youngest roster in the league, this season was when their leap was going to happen.
Coming into the season, ESPN ranked the Magic as the 9th-best team in basketball and set their projected wins total at 48 games. The Athletic had the Magic ranked as the NBA’s 7th-best team, and general pre-season betting odds had them with the 9th-best odds to win the title and an Over/Under of 51.5 wins.
Yet, 12 games into the season, the Magic sit at 6-6 and are tied for 10th in the Eastern Conference. So what has happened in the early going that led the team to stumble out of the gate?
For starters, Orlando's shooting woes from last season have carried over into the new season as well.
Heading into Friday night's game against the Nets, the Magic are 20th in the league in effective field goal rate. They're hitting just 33.6% of their three-point shots, which is 24th in the NBA. Not a single player on the Magic averages two or more made three-point shots a game, and only four of them even attempt four or more three-pointers per game.
That was a big reason why the Magic went out andtraded for Desmond Bane this offseason. The 27-year-old is a career 40.7% shooter from beyond the arc and a 47.1% shooter overall. He was meant to provide the floor spacing and knockdown shooting that the Magic so desperately needed. Yet, so far this season, he is shooting just 30.2% from three and putting up just 4.4 three-point shots per game, well below his career mark of 6.3
Bane didn't just become a bad jumpshooter, so we have to expect that the shots are going to begin to fall for him, as they did on Wednesday against the Knicks, when he knocked down three of six from deep. However, Bane being fourth on the team in three-point attempts per game is more noteworthy.
Some of that can be attributed to the team's offensive scheme, which has not created many catch-and-shoot opportunities this season.
The Magic take just 22.1 catch-and-shoot threes per game, which puts them 28th in the league, and they make 34.2% of those shots, which is 23rd in the league. In fact, if you include shots from inside the arc, the Magic shoot just 36.2% on all catch-and-shoot opportunities, which is 21st in the NBA. What's more, 8.3% of Orlando’s shots this season are with a defender within two feet, which is the 4th-most in the NBA. On the season, the Magic are 26th in the NBA in percentage of threes that are deemed open (when the defender is within 4-6 feet). They attempt only 11.1 open threes a game, which is also 26th in raw amount. None of that is particularly good.
However, a more generous way to view the slow shooting start for both Bane and the Magic is that the team is still learning how to play with one another.
"We're still trying to figure out playing with each other," said Anthony Black after the win over the Knicks. "It looks a little different. Rotations are a little different. So I think, as we're finding out where to be on the floor, we're getting better looks, and we're figuring out how to convert... Dudes are starting to find their rhythm, their confidence, so I think we can keep that going and start to make more shots."
"It takes time," added Bane. "It’s new for everybody, so we're trying to get this thing to come together."
In addition to Bane, another new piece in the rotation is guard Tyus Jones, who was signed as a free agent in the offseason. The Magic are also adjusting to who is no longer on the court. Last season, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averaged nearly 30 minutes a game in 77 games with the Magic. Mo Wagner played nearly 20 minutes a game in his 30 games, and Cole Anthony averaged just over 18 minutes per game in 67 games. None of them are on the Magic roster currently or healthy (Wagner tore his ACL last December).
"I think that was a big portion of it," responded Magic coach Jamahl Mosley when asked about his team's performance on offense. "Guys finding a way to click together, both offensively and defensively. Putting some new pieces together, having that chemistry flow... Guys not being on minutes restrictions anymore. I think those things all play a part."
Part of the process of figuring each other out is also going to be encouraging Bane to be more selfish when looking for his own shot.
"Dez gets downhill really well," said Black. "You know, we joke around and say we need him shooting some of those shots that he's attacking, but he just does such a good job getting into the paint. He's fast getting past his man that it just makes it easy for the other dudes to play off of him."
While there is certainly nothing wrong with attacking the paint and looking to get looks for your teammates, Bane has the second-highest pass rate on drives of any player in the Magics' rotation, but just an 8.5% assist rate on those opportunities. That ranks 78th out of 121 guards in the NBA playing at least 20 minutes per game. Meanwhile, Bane is attempting just 1.1 corner threes per game and 3.3 above-the-break threes per game after taking 4.9 above-the-break threes per game last year and shooting 41.2% on them.
He's also been involved more as a pick-and-roll ballhandler than he was in Memphis, but that's a major part of Orlando's offensive DNA. As a team, the Magic run the pick-and-roll the 4th-most of any team, but they rank 24th in points per possession on the pick-and-roll and 20th in effective field goal percentage. They are 19th in scoring frequency on pick-and-rolls, so even though they have a propensity for utilizing it, it hasn't been overly successful so far this season.
Some of that could be that teams know it's how Orlando wants to attack, and Orlando doesn't have the luxury of adjusting that approach with their two highest-usage players.
The Magic use Paolo Banchero as a pick-and-roll ballhandler 24.2% of the time. However, he has recorded just 0.89 points per possession and a 46.1% eFG% in that role. Among players who average at least one opportunity as a pick-and-roll ballhandler per game, that ranks 93rd and 129th of 209 players. The Magic also score on 40.8% of the plays in which Banchero is the pick-and-roll ballhandler, which is 98th out of 209 players, one spot ahead of teammate Jalen Suggs.
The team also uses Franz Wagner as a pick-and-roll ballhandler 26.8% of the time after he was the main focus of the offense against the Knicks. He has been slightly better than Banchero in that role, but his 0.94 ppp and 49.2% eFG% are sitting around league average, which is not ideal if that's one of your team's main ways to create offense.
“I think teams switch us because they want to stall us out," explained Mosley before the Knicks game. "They both know those guys [Banchero and Wagner] get downhill very aggressively and get to the paint. So we talk about the screening angles because, if we know teams are switching, where you set the screen is going to be very important. Sometimes you set it, sometimes you slip, sometimes you set a low angle in order to create a problem because now that opens up for others."
Perhaps more time on the court and execution in practice will make those pick-and-roll opportunities more efficient as the year goes on. So far, it hasn't hurt the overall effectiveness of the team's starting five, which ranks 5th in the NBA in net rating for any five-man lineup that has played at least 50 minutes together. That lineup of Banchero, Wagner, Bane, Suggs, and Wendell Carter Jr. is also 2nd in the league in pace, and that's a huge component of how Orlando wants to play basketball.
As a team, Orlando is 10th in pace. They want to get a full head of steam and then use their size and physicality to attack opponents in the paint. They came into Wednesday's game against the Knicks 5th in the NBA in field goals made on drives with 11.5 per game. They were also 8th in the NBA in drives per game at 52.3, 10th in the NBA in the percentage of points that come on drives, and 7th in the league in points that come in the paint. That has also led them to average 10.2 free throw attempts per game on drive, which was 2nd in the NBA. As a team, the Magic average 32.6 free throws per game. They are the only team in the NBA to average over 30 attempts per game.
So their offensive pace does create opportunities at the rim and free throw chances, but their over-reliance on it as their only consistent source of scoring has been problematic in the past and has continued to be so this year. Yet, while Orlando may need to diversify its offensive identity to be more than physical attacks at the rim, that same level of physicality on defense has been central to their success over the last couple of seasons.
"Defense has been our calling card since I came here," admitted Black. "I think that's what leads to a lot of our wins, even a lot of our offensive success. So I think the more we keep getting into the ball, being physical, creating turnovers, I think that'll keep leading to better offensive performances and just a better vibe and just a better feel out there."
The evidence of that was on display on Wednesday in a win over the Knicks. The Magic jumped on the Knicks early, hounding the ball on the perimeter and showing active hands in the passing lanes. That led to 10 steals and forced the Knicks into 14 turnovers.
Yet, that type of performance hasn’t been the norm for Orlando this season. Coming into that Knicks game, the Magic were 15th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they had been 2nd at the end of last season. Part of that is due to Orlando being less active and effective in the passing lanes. This year, they’re 23rd in the NBA in steals with 7.8 per game, but they were 6th in the league last year with 8.9 steals per game. Last year, the Magic were also 6th in the league in deflections with 17.7 per game. This year, they’re 24th at 15.9 per game.
According to Coach Mosley, some of that was just due to preparation and execution: “We gotta do a better job of knowing personnel and then being able to keep them out of the lane, but also being able to get out to shooters at the same time."
The Magic are still hounding opponents on the perimeter, so their aggressive nature hasn't changed. Last year, Magic opponents took 7.9% of their field goals with a defender very tight (within 2 feet), which was 3rd-best in the NBA. 31.3% of their opponents' shots were with a defender tight (2-4 feet), which is also 3rd in the NBA. This year, the Magic are also third, so the issue has been more about poor execution as the Magic defenders close out on the perimeter, which has caused the Magic to average almost three more fouls per game than last year.
"We got to be smarter," admitted Coach Mosley. "That's a big portion of it. Understanding we are a physical team, but we got to be smart about how we're physical, where we're grabbing...A lot of those things that happen in the lane, those guys go up, you make sure you're showing your hands [to avoid foul calls]. I'm screaming it on the sideline. We got to make sure we're communicating that with our guys when they break that three-point line, we've got to be able to show our hands too."
When the Magic do complete a successful defensive possession, they also need to capitalize more often than they have been. This season, their defensive rebounding rate is down to 69.1%, which is 14th in the NBA. Last year, they were 6th in the league at 72%.
"The shot goes up, you don't watch the ball," said Coach Mosley. "You turn and check to see if that man is flying in. You make contact with him, and then you've got to know where that ball is flying off, and then you go pursue it. After you've cleared the box out, you don't just go chase the basketball, and you've got to put your body on them and make sure that after that, once it's secured, then you can get out on the break."
For the Magic, everything is about getting out on the break, but they need to execute their defensive principles in order to do that. "That's who we are, a defensive team that can get out and run and create opportunities because of our defense."
That wasn't who they were early in the season, but it's who they are becoming again. Perhaps heading into Madison Square Garden to take on a Knicks team that had yet to lose a home game was the extra motivation the team needed, but Coach Mosley doesn't believe the opponent the Magic defeat is any more important than what the Magic are doing themselves.
"It's not a statement [win]. It's our process. If we can sit down and guard the right way every single night, trust the pass, share the ball, get out on the break and convert on the break, do a better job defending without fouling That's our process, and the result will take care of itself, but we've got to continue to focus on our process, and it starts on the defensive end of the floor."
Focusing on that end is how the Magic have rebounded from a 1-4 start and won five of their last seven games. It's how the Magic emphatically defeated a potential title contender on its home court. It's how the Magic elevated themselves into the playoff conversation the last couple of years, and it's how they will be able to take the next step towards being a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. Just as all the pre-season predictions anticipated.
“I think the expectations of the outside are always going to be there no matter what we say," reflected Coach Mosley, "but our ability to just focus on our game plan and how we're trying to approach this game is going to be more important...Our guys know exactly how they can play, how good [our] team has been playing, and how we're trending.”
Now it's time for them to deliver that night in and night out.
