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One of the my favorite bits in Mets discourse these days is that the only part of roster building that David Stearns is actually excited about is dumpster diving for relief arms. Signing a young superstar to a record-setting contract? Boring. Trading for a potentially electric center fielder or a very affordable #2 starter? Grunt work. Digging into NPB stats to pick out some minor league guys to invite to camp? There we go, that’s the good stuff.

Enter Mike Baumann (not to be confused with Michael Baumann the Fangraphs writer). A third round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2017, Baumann was never a top prospect not even a particularly notable one; even in the dog days of the Orioles rebuild, his stuff was never good enough to merit an extended chance in the rotation, nor was he very good out of the bullpen. The Orioles eventually cut him loose during the 2024 season, and he’d wind up bouncing between not one, not two, but four other teams before heading off to Japan for the 2025 season. After 15 mediocre innings with the Yakult Swallows (where he walked 7.2 batters per nine), he’s now back stateside on a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

What did the Mets see here? Well it’s definitely not the top-line performance as we just discussed, so it must be the underlying stuff. And indeed, all the public-facing stuff models have something positive to say about Baumann’s 2024 arsenal. His knuckle-curve was scored a 67 by PitchingBot (20-80 scale), a 118 by Stuff+ (100 is average), a 122 (100 is average) by Rob Orr’s metrics, and -1.1 by Baseball Prospectus’s StuffPro (negative is better). The movement profile isn’t amazing, but he throws it hard for a curve at 87.8 MPH. You can catch a couple shots of this pitch proving to be an effective put away offering in this 2024 compilation – watch out for the Miguel Sano jump scare at the start.

Baumann also has a fastball that’s consistently graded out as slightly above average (ignoring what I assume is a calibration or small sample size issue from PitchingBot in 2024), so you can see the potential building blocks. Maybe it’s a tweak to the fastball shape to make it a more effective offering and get Baumann two above average pitches. Maybe it’s an adjustment to his mix to focus more on the knuckle curve. Perhaps it’s a new third pitch or an improvement to his current slider or changeup that makes it all work better together. It could even be that some of this has already happened in Japan last year and we just can’t see it because we don’t have the data. There are a lot of different directions this could go.

Most minor league signings of this type never amount to much – a single appearance or three in the dog days of summer, or potentially only a couple of Spring Training outings before the club goes in a different direction. The success the Mets have had recently with pitching development is infectious though, as is David Stearns’ track record with building bullpens. You almost believe that everything they touch will turn to gold. Maybe that will be the case for Mike Baumann, providing him a respite from his professional odyssey and the Mets meme creators more fuel for their most reliable bit.

With actual (spring training) games about to start, all the major prospect lists entering 2026 are in, which allows us to form a consensus of sorts. For the Dodgers prospects, the outfielders lead the way.

Josue De Paula is the top-rated Dodgers prospect at Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and ESPN. Eduardo Quintero is the top-rated prospect in the system according to The Athletic and Baseball America. De Paula’s average prospect rank in baseball at those six sites is 18.5, with Quintero averaging 27.7.

Zyhir Hope is the other Dodgers prospect named in the top 100 at all six of those national outlets, ranging from 18th to 63rd with an average of 37.5. Mike Sirota, completing the Dodgers outfield quartet, was ranked between 34th and 60th at five of the six sites, but was outside of the top 110 at FanGraphs.

Those six sites have the longest track record of national prospect rankings, but the Dodgers outfielders lead the way elsewhere, too. Thomas Nestico at his TJ Stats newsletter ranked the four Dodgers outfielders among his top 52 prospects, while Aram Leighton had the outfield quartet among his top 41 prospects at Just Baseball.

Shortstop Emil Morales was also named to five top-100 lists, ranging between 56th and 92nd on those lists, missing out only on the Baseball America list.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, and ESPN all have standard top-100 lists, while Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 101 and FanGraphs went 110 deep. But there were also a few “just missed”lists of 10 or 20extra prospects, while Kiley McDaniel at ESPN decided to also rank his 101 through 200 prospects, too.

In all, 10 different Dodgers prospects were ranked within the top 111 in baseball entering 2026. If we limit it to top 100 only, seven Dodgers were included on at least one of those lists.

Player	Pos	2026 age	BA	MLB	Athletic	ESPN	BP	FG
Josue De Paula	OF	21	24	15	20	21	14	17
Eduardo Quintero	OF	20	20	30	9	37	27	43
Zyhir Hope	OF	21	63	27	36	40	18	41
Mike Sirota	OF	23	45	60	51	55	34
Emil Morales	SS	19		92	65	65	56	61
River Ryan	SP	27			55	125		107
Alex Freeland	SS	24			87	103	102-111
Jackson Ferris	SP	22		101-110		128
Ching-Hsien Ko	OF	19			101-110
Zach Ehrhard	OF	23				111

Good morning! The Red Sox will play an honest-to-god baseball game today, as Spring Training is finally under way. So my question to you today is: what are you watching for in Spring Training?

For fans, Spring Training tends to be about two things: the new guys and the rookies. But in the case of the 2026 Red Sox, a few of the big new names will be off playing in the World Baseball Classic (Ranger Suárez and Willson Contreras) while another (Sonny Gray) is more of a known commodity. Meanwhile, the club doesn’t really have any unknown rookies in camp this season, though there are plenty of young guys who still have questions to answer.

So here’s what I’ll have my eye on this spring:

• Will either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle force themselves into the rotation?
• Is Johan Oviedo a diamond in the rough?
• Is Caleb Durbin better than I think? (I do not think he’s that good!)
• Will Marcelo Mayer take a step up with the bat?
• Will Kristian Campbell take a step up with everything?

Talk about what you want to see over the next six weeks or whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.

5. Jared Thomas (476 points, 19 ballots)

Thomas went 42nd-overall to the Rockies as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, signing for an under-slot $2 million. He got that bonus due to excellent bat-to-ball skills, some emerging power, and above-average speed that gives him a high floor offensively. The 22-year-old, 6’2” lefty spent most of his time defensively at Texas (where he played alongside fellow PuRP Max Belyeu) playing first base, but he has split his time in center and left field as a professional, with slightly more time in left.

After a freshman year at Texas where he hit a strong .321/.398/.484, Thomas traded some contact for power for his draft year. Though his strikeouts increased from 15% to 21% of his plate appearances, Thomas also saw his home runs quadruple from four to 16 — a part of an increase in slugging percentage of 151 points. His 2024 college line in 291 PA was .349/.435/.635 with 35 extra-base-hits, and he was a perfect 18/18 on steals.

A strong 2024 cameo in Low-A Fresno (146 wRC+) was cut to only eight games when Thomas went down with a quad injury, but the Rockies saw enough to bump Thomas up to High-A Spokane to begin 2025 (he was 1.3 years younger than league average). In Spokane, Thomas absolutely raked, hitting .330/.427/.495 with 11 homers among his 25 extra-base hits and going 22/24 on steals in 342 plate appearances (147 wRC+). His batting average led the Northwest League while his OBP was third and his OPS was fourth.

The Rockies promoted Thomas on July 1st to Double-A Hartford, where he was 2.5 years younger than league average. Facing upper-minors pitching, Thomas cooled down a bit, hitting a still respectable .245/.347/.374 with three homers among his 14 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 191 plate appearances, which is a 113 wRC+. Thomas struck out in 35% of his Double-A PA and had a decently large platoon split, producing a .726 OPS against lefties vs. a .874 OPS against righties (with a large home/road OPS split of .989/.696 as well). In the field, Thomas committed all six of his errors in left field but had four of his seven outfield assists from center field.

Thomas ended 2025 with a stint in the Arizona Fall League, during which he hit .302/.343/.524 with two homers (including a grand slam) among his nine extra-base hits with eight steals in just 67 plate appearances, but unfortunately a broken hamate bone ended his time in the AFL prematurely.

Here’s some video of Thomas at Fresno in 2024, including some slo-mo looks at the swing in the back half:

Baseball America recently ranked Thomas third in the system (so did Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com) and project him to be the starting left fielder in 2029:

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Thomas is an average athlete who moves well for his size. He began his pro career playing primarily center field, but when he moved to Hartford, he slid to left field, which is a better long-term fit. Thomas’ move to Double-A also exposed the key area of concern: swing-and-miss issues, particularly against better sequencing and breaking stuff. Still, when he makes contact, it is often loud contact—supported by consistently high exit velocities and quality barrel rates.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thomas 80th before the draft and he ranked Thomas 9th in the system earlier this month:

Thomas can show you easy plus power — he hit a ball in the Arizona Fall League that probably hasn’t come down yet, putting it in the Charro Lodge in right field at Scottsdale Stadium, with an EV of 111 mph — but he doesn’t hold it through the year, wearing down in the second half before he got a break between the regular season and the AFL. He needs to keep that strength and muscle, and needs to really tighten up his approach; he misses a little too much in zone and swings a little too much at stuff out of zone, enough to add up to a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in Double A last year. He broke a hamate bone in the AFL, so his power may not be there when he returns this spring. There’s an everyday center fielder package here, somewhere, but he’s got to hit enough to get to it and show he can maintain that power through a whole season.

MLB Pipeline, who ranked Thomas 60th in their draft rankings, slotted Thomas 8th in the org as a 45 FV player with a 55 Hit, Run, and Arm grade last year:

Thomas showed off what a good feel he has for his left-handed swing. He has the chance to really hit at the next level, routinely finding the barrel and not trying to do too much. There’s some sneaky pop in there, and as he showed during his sophomore year, he can sacrifice a little contact for pop without completely selling out for it.

Thomas is a pretty good athlete who runs better underway and has the ability to play multiple positions. He played more first than anywhere else with the Longhorns, but showed he could capably handle center field as a sophomore and the Rockies will likely work him at all three outfield spots during his first full year of pro ball. He’s already opened some eyes across the industry as the Rockies were getting calls about him from other teams.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had Thomas 48th among draft prospects and ranks him 11th in the system at midseason as a 40+ FV player (up from 40 FV preseason) with a 60 future raw power grade:

Thomas has an ideal baseball frame at a super projectable 6-foot-2; he has above-average power to both gaps and is going to grow into more. His dynamic low-ball swing plays best when Thomas’ bat path is vertical; it tends to be too long when he has to flatten it out to catch fastballs away from him. His power can be neutered in the down-and-away part of the strike zone. Barring the shortening up of Thomas’ swing, what were average college contact rates will likely translate to below-average rates in pro ball, but he might grow into enough power for that to be alright. At Texas, Thomas played center field, left field, and first base. His reads in the outfield aren’t very good and unless they improve, his arm forces him to left. Thomas only has the two years of college experience, so it’s worth a shot to continue things in center for at least a little while, and the Rockies played him in left and center during his brief pro debut. Thomas’ realistic ceiling is as a power-over-hit 1B/LF platoon bat, and he requires a little more projection than is typical of a college hitter.

Shaun Kernahan of Three Quarter Slot wrote up Thomas after his AFL performance:

Smooth, compact left-handed stroke defines his game, producing consistent line drives and easy backspin from a polished, advanced approach. Thomas shows exceptional bat-to-ball skill and an ability to adjust mid-count without losing balance or intent, attacking hittable pitches with controlled aggression. The swing works gap-to-gap with emerging power that projects to reach average at peak, giving him a steady offensive profile built on timing and rhythm rather than raw strength.

A steady athlete with strong instincts, he moves well once underway and offers defensive flexibility across the outfield and at first base. He’s capable of handling corner outfield spots and even center in a pinch and has seen plenty of time at first where he is a quality defender. Advanced strike-zone awareness and refined baseball IQ give him a professional polish that fits neatly in Colorado’s system. The contact ability, approach maturity, and defensive versatility make him a high floor prospect for the team in the mile high city.

Thomas has progressed beyond my expectations for him in 2025, already producing at an above-average level in Double-A just a year after getting drafted. If that pace continues, it’s possible he could be a big league factor as soon as this season if he can distinguish himself from the Rockies’ outfield mob. Thomas’s ability to at least fake it in center field could be useful in setting him apart, but of course it’s going to be the bat that carries him to big league success. I was encouraged by how Thomas performed in his first professional season and ranked him fifth on my list as a 45 FV player (just behind Robert Calaz).

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Morning everyone and happy Friday!

News broke yesterday that a familiar face will be rejoining the Athletics. It’s not anyone that’ll take the field but his presence is invaluable in a different way. We’re welcoming back of course former manager Bob Melvin, who will be taking on a Special Advisory role with the team he managed for 10+ seasons:

Welcome back to the Green & Gold, Bob!

We have hired Bob Melvin as Special Assistant, Baseball Operations. pic.twitter.com/a6QHCg3L6j

— Athletics (@Athletics) February 19, 2026

Welcome back Bob! The return of BoMel is much welcomed for a young A’s squad that is looking to take that next step forward. While none of the players that he managed with the Athletics are around anymore, the young crop that the A’s have currently surely know the history of Melvin with the franchise. When Melvin speaks, players shut up and listen because he’s been around this game longer than most of them have been alive. BoMel, as he’s affectionally known, was a players’ coach during his time donning the Green & Gold and he won Manager of the Year in both 2012 and 2018, two of the most memorable seasons in recent A’s history. Overall he went 853-764 while managing our A’s and every player he coached had nothing but roses for him.

The Palo Alto native is the second-winningest manager in franchise history (behind of course Connie Mack), but Melvin exited unceremoniously from the team after the 2021 season. That was the offseason the A’s began their tear down of the roster and, while he was still technically under contract, both team and Melvin decided that a fresh start for both sides was in the best interest of everyone involved. He had no desire to oversee another years-long rebuild and he ended up going down south to manage the win-now San Diego Padres for a couple seasons before returning to the Bay Area as the manager of the rival Giants, which was a bit of a gut punch to us A’s fans. He lasted just two seasons there though and was surprisingly canned this offseason by Giants president Buster Posey after posting a 161-163 record.

While Melvin oversaw six playoff squads, advancing deep into the postseason always proved to be a challenge for him. The A’s lost five of six of those series in the first round, only winning the 2020 Wild Card series over the Chicago White Sox but then immediately losing to the Houston Astros in the next round. His squads did put up some tough battles against the Detroit Tigers early on in his time as manager but his postseason record of 7-13 isn’t great and he was 0-3 in Wild Card games as manager of the A’s.

That’s not all of the context though. Melvin repeatedly worked within the restraints of having one of the lowest payrolls in the league and still managed to coax plenty of production out of random names and other nobodies that had been forgotten by the league. The fact that Melvin was able to put together multiple playoff rosters while dealing with an absent front office and a lack of funds from the owner for upgrades is a testament to the kind of baseball mind he has on his head. This is a huge get for the A’s organization as a whole, though fans may not exactly see the impact he’ll have.

Reportedly Melvin is preparing to take on a role that allows him to help both the front office and players. During Spring Training Melvin is going to be around so keep an eye out and you might spot him! He’ll be watching the games, giving pointers to the players, and assessing the current crop along with the front office and scouts. He won’t be among an unfamiliar group of coaches either as many know him or even worked with him in the past. That includes current manager Mark Kotsay, who was on Melvin’s staff for years before taking over for him in 2022.

Once the regular season gets underway though BoMel will be hanging out down in the minor leagues with the top prospects coming up through the system. That’ll be a new experience for him as he’s been a major league coach for the past 27 years and hasn’t been able to see minor leaguers much up close before they arrive. Melvin will be a key voice for General Manager David Forst when it comes to promotions for those players. If they get his voice of approval, it’ll be hard to keep them down long.

“It means a lot,” Melvin said, of returning to the A’s. “I’m just going to try to help out however I can. The easy part for me is the familiarity with the people in the organization.”

BoMel is back! pic.twitter.com/6OVo2NSuXr

— Athletics (@Athletics) February 19, 2026

Melvin is going to slide right back in almost like he never left. After a few years of bouncing around, returning to a familiar team in the A’s will be a breath of familiar air for him. And the A’s are all the luckier to have such an important baseball mind around.

Have a great weekend everyone! Baseball is back!

A’s Coverage

• Bob Melvin returning to Athletics as special advisor
• Can The A’s Young Core Turn Defense Into a Strength?
• Pesky Drawback Of “Closer By Committee” (It Never Really Works)
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Cole Miller Lays Claim To #15
• Can Kurtz get his glove to match his monster bat?
• Zack Gelof: Outfielder?
• Athletics 2026 Top MLB Prospects Deep Dive
• Waiting For Gelof: What Do We Do?
• “Relievers Are Volatile”… But Why?
• Are The Final Two Rotation Spots Really Up For Grabs?
• Story Lines To Watch As Spring Training Unfolds

MLB News and Interest:

• Orioles’ Jordan Westburg ‘physically unable to participate’ at camp
• Brewers sign manager Pat Murphy to contract extension
• Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to get center field reps during spring
• MLBPA elects Bruce Meyer as interim executive director
• Is this the most stacked, competitive division in baseball?
• Buster Olney ranks top-10 first basemen for 2026
• Former A’s starter Chris Bassitt calls out MLB in blunt comments
• Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz plead not guilty in pitch rigging case
• Each team’s top projected player for 2026
• Dodgers righty Brusdar Graterol to miss beginning of season
• Rays right-hander Edwin Uceta undergoing tests on shoulder
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

It’s not too late for Kotsay to join in on the WBC fun:

A's manager Mark Kotsay would LOVE to be part of Team USA's coaching staff if the opportunity materializes in the 2028 Olympics.

"Doc, if you're watching this, bring me on your staff." 👀 pic.twitter.com/QceU6arPam

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) February 19, 2026

Possible closer versus starting first baseman:

Nick Kurtz vs. Hogan Harris Live BP pic.twitter.com/6r0KpUhuna

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) February 19, 2026

We would all more than welcome that. Needs to figure out lefties first:

"I just wanted to go out there and give it all I had for my team." — Lawrence Butler

Lawski 30/30 season loading? 😤⏳@athleticscast24#Athleticspic.twitter.com/ShpE9k7BQo

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) February 19, 2026

Higher hopes for the left-handers coming up:

“Last year it was Barnett and Perkins… this year it’s Arnold and Jump in the fold. It seems like you’re leveling up.”

Jack McMullen seeing the vision. 📈 https://t.co/GUPRsMeRif

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) February 19, 2026

Good morning my friends! It’s Friday and the Cactus League season is kicking off for the M’s today, who face off with the Padres at 12:10pm PT. Let’s check in on what’s happening around the league.

In Mariners news…

• Shannon Drayer gauged the temperature of Mariners’ camp as they prepare for their first Cactus League game.
• Ken Griffey, Jr. has been named a Global Ambassador for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. His duties include interviews and content creation alongside the tournament’s athletes on official social media channels.

Around the league…

• Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg is undergoing imaging for his elbow. Westburg has already been limited this spring due to an oblique injury.
• The Brewers have extended the contract of manager Pat Murphy through the 2029 season.
• The A’s are bringing longtime skipper Bob Melvin back to the organization to serve in a baseball operations role.
• The Tigers unveiled a new set of alternate jerseys for the 2026 season.
• The Guardians are planning to give Gold Glove-winning left fielder Steven Kwan some reps in center field this year.
• Derek Carty at Fangraphs proudly rolled out the brand new THE BAT X projection model for pitchers. Previously, THE BAT X only released projections for hitters.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs wonders which baseball players would make the best ice dancers, in which he shows some major respect for one of our favorite Mariners.

Anders’ picks…

• It was a big day for the USA in the Winter Olympics, with the women’s ice hockey team winning an overtime thriller over Team Canada in the gold medal game. Meanwhile, figure skater Alysa Liu completed a comeback for the history books to claim the first individual gold medal for an American woman in figure skating in over 20 years.
• This summer, ESPN is replacing Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts with Women’s Sports Sundays.

As you know, Marquee Sports Network has cut back on its live game coverage this spring. The Score, now also on FM 104.3 in the Chicago area, will carry some games as well, but radio and TV coverage overlap for some dates.

I’m here to tell you that of the 33 Cubs games this spring (32 major-league games and the Spring Breakout prospect game), 26 of them will have TV or radio coverage, or both, either via the Cubs broadcast outlets or the opposing team.

So, while that’s not perfect, it’s at least most of the spring.

Here’s where you can watch or listen to those 26 Cubs games this spring. If a line is blank after the opponent’s name, that means no broadcast coverage for that game.

Date	Team	TV	Radio
Fri 2/20	vs White Sox	Marquee	The Score/ESPN 1000
Sat 2/21	vs Rangers	Marquee	The Score/Rangers radio 105.3
Sun 2/22	at Giants	SF Video	KNBR 104.5
Mon 2/23	at Royals		ALT 96.5
Tue 2/24	vs Padres		SD Audio
Wed 2/25	vs Rockies
Thu 2/26	at Angels
Fri 2/27	vs Guardians
Sat 2/28	at Dodgers	SportsNet LA
Sun 3/1	vs White Sox	Marquee	ESPN 1000
Mon 3/2	at Reds	Marquee/Reds TV
Tue 3/3	vs Italy
Wed 3/4	at Brewers	Marquee/Brewers TV	WTMJ 620
Thu 3/5	vs D-backs
Fri 3/6	at Padres	Padres TV	KWFN 97.3
Sat 3/7	vs Athletics		The Score
Sun 3/8	vs Giants	Marquee	The Score/KNBR 104.5
Mon 3/9	OFF DAY
Tue 3/10	at Rangers
Wed 3/11	vs Royals
Thu 3/12	vs Mariners		Seattle Sports 710 AM
Fri 3/13	at White Sox	CHSN	ESPN 1000
Sat 3/14	at Rockies		The Score
Sun 3/15	vs Dodgers	Marquee/SportsNet LA	The Score
Mon 3/16	at Guardians	Guardians TV	WTAM 1100
Tue 3/17	vs Angels		The Score
Wed 3/18	at D-backs	AZ Video
Thu 3/19	OFF DAY
Fri 3/20	vs Reds (SS)		WLW 700
Fri 3/20	at Athletics (SS)	Marquee/NBC Sports CA	ATH Audio
Sat 3/21	at Mariners	Marquee/Mariners TV	The Score
Sat 3/21	Spring Breakout	Marquee
Sun 3/22	vs Brewers	Marquee/Brewers TV/ESPN Unlimited	The Score
Mon 3/23	vs Yankees		The Score/WFAN
Tue 3/24	vs Yankees		WFAN

I’ll also post broadcast information in every game preview, including today’s. Today’s game preview will post at 12 noon CT (2:05 p.m. CT game time).

The first three games, at least, you’ll be able to watch or listen to as they all have TV and radio coverage.

Enjoy the spring!

With the expiration date of the current competitive bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and the owners looming over the end of the season like a supermoon in the sky, you can be assured that there will be lots of digital ink spilled all year long about the key negotiating issues. This is, of course, one of those pieces discussing one of the key negotiating issues. The issue at hand is arguably the central issue: that of a potential salary cap.

You all know the generalities by now. MLB is the only major American sports league without a salary cap. The MLBPA has historically resisted any form of a salary cap. The owners increasingly want a salary cap. None of this has changed. What has changed is that we’re close enough to the new CBA negotiations that we’re starting to see some actual numbers floated about. Evan Drellich, probably the most well-versed and well-connected journalist on this particular topic, included what his sources are telling him could be some realistic proposed numbers in a recent piece for The Athletic:

Whatever the owners first propose probably is not where they’d be willing to end up. A reasonable goal from an ownership perspective might be $240 million at the top and $160 million at the bottom, one source briefed on management thinking who was not authorized to speak publicly said. 

There are a lot of arguments, many of them deep and interesting, about whether a salary cap would benefit players or owners or lead to more or less competitive balance. For now, let us set these gently aside as out of the scope of our little examination. Let’s pretend that, tomorrow, the league and the union magically agreed to this exact salary cap. What’s the fallout?

To find out, I looked at Cot’s Baseball Contracts and pulled the 2026 projected Opening Day payrolls for all 30 MLB teams. For any team under the $160 million floor, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $160 million. For any team over the $240 million ceiling, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $240 million. I then put them in a fun little spreadsheet so we all can see the results:

Team	2026 Opening Day Projected	2026 Salary Cap Adjusted	Difference
New York Mets	$355,204,181	$240,000,000	-$115,204,181
Los Angeles Dodgers	$314,895,813	$240,000,000	-$74,895,813
New York Yankees	$296,398,833	$240,000,000	-$56,398,833
Philadelphia Phillies	$280,583,618	$240,000,000	-$40,583,618
Toronto Blue Jays	$274,188,218	$240,000,000	-$34,188,218
Atlanta Braves	$259,586,000	$240,000,000	-$19,586,000
Houston Astros	$236,532,333	$236,532,333	$0
Chicago Cubs	$220,383,079	$220,383,079	$0
San Diego Padres	$215,130,898	$215,130,898	$0
Detroit Tigers	$203,747,859	$203,747,859	$0
San Francisco Giants	$193,459,922	$193,459,922	$0
Boston Red Sox	$187,500,905	$187,500,905	$0
Texas Rangers	$183,055,000	$183,055,000	$0
Arizona Diamondbacks	$181,129,256	$181,129,256	$0
Los Angeles Angels	$174,865,260	$174,865,260	$0
Baltimore Orioles	$165,694,000	$165,694,000	$0
Seattle Mariners	$159,446,881	$160,000,000	$553,119
Kansas City Royals	$140,459,488	$160,000,000	$19,540,512
Cincinnati Reds	$126,921,333	$160,000,000	$33,078,667
Milwaukee Brewers	$125,492,605	$160,000,000	$34,507,395
Colorado Rockies	$119,501,290	$160,000,000	$40,498,710
Pittsburgh Pirates	$105,673,500	$160,000,000	$54,326,500
Minnesota Twins	$104,090,857	$160,000,000	$55,909,143
St. Louis Cardinals	$98,125,000	$160,000,000	$61,875,000
Washington Nationals	$90,564,700	$160,000,000	$69,435,300
Wandering Athletics	$89,110,713	$160,000,000	$70,889,287
Tampa Bay Rays	$85,178,000	$160,000,000	$74,822,000
Chicago White Sox	$85,008,000	$160,000,000	$74,992,000
Cleveland Guardians	$74,552,140	$160,000,000	$85,447,860
Miami Marlins	$73,936,000	$160,000,000	$86,064,000
TOTAL	$5,220,415,682	$5,641,498,512	$421,082,830

The quick and dirty results: if MLB had implemented this particular version of the salary cap and floor, the players in aggregate would have gotten $421 million more in salary. Only six teams were above the ceiling. Meanwhile, more than double the teams—14!—were below the floor. There were as many teams at least $69 million below the floor as there were teams above the ceiling by any amount.

Sure, there are still some free agents out there, but Fangraphs’ free agent tracker lists only three players that project to get $10 million+ this year and have yet to sign: Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, and Zack Littell. And sure, this doesn’t include 40-man rosters, which cost each team a few extra million to fill out. On the other hand, a realistic scenario here wouldn’t have a whopping 14 teams at the exact $160 million floor; just a few million dollars spent above that floor for each team would cancel both things out.

So why has the union resisted if something like this would result in more money in the pockets of their members? There’s the principal of the matter, as the union likely feels it’s not their fault that teams like the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers are such incredible cheap-asses. Additionally, the union is trying to protect the earning potential for its best players. Under this scenario, the stars of the game would see their earning potential curtailed without the half dozen or so largest markets able to flex their financial muscles.

I don’t have a huge sweeping takeaway for you. The only thing I offer is the data’s perspective here, and a perhaps more subjective perspective informed by the data: if the players stay disciplined and focused, they can give the owners the salary cap that they want while securing terms that widen their slice of the revenue pie—all while catering to a public that’s generally sick of seeing big market teams push their way to the top.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be rolling out a series of prospect previews for Spring Training. This week we look at one of the top arms: AJ Blubaugh.

Blubaugh was selected in the seventh round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee after a solid, albeit limited, college career. In his first full professional season, he showed promise, striking out 112 batters over 100 innings. Despite a 4.41 ERA, he finished strong in Double-A with a 1.26 ERA. In 2024, he had a true breakout season, reaching Triple-A and finishing with a 3.71 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 128.2 innings, helping Sugar Land capture the Triple-A Championship.

Heading into 2025, expectations were high for continued success and a potential big league call-up. He made a couple solid starts before his MLB debut, where he allowed seven runs, two earned, over four innings. The next eight starts were a struggle, as he gave up 37 earned runs in 34.1 innings. Blubaugh regained his footing and earned a call-up in August, striking out eight over five innings in relief against Miami.

He finished the 2025 season in Houston dominant, posting a 1.69 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 32 innings while allowing just 17 hits. Blubaugh showcased a 98 MPH fastball and a devastating changeup which he didn’t allow a single hit with the pitch at the major league level, proving he has the tools to be a reliable big league arm. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player, which contributes to his strong arm and agility on the mound.

Now entering 2026, Blubaugh has a legitimate opportunity to establish himself as a reliable big league arm. Read more on his 2025 season here.