Worldwide Sports News

Does a one-pitch homer count as a sequence for anyone? It’s a fair question but bending the rules is ok.

What’s also ok is what Adolis Garcia is doing at the plate. The results haven’t been flashy and the underlying stuff is just fine. He is hitting the ball harder but is also not pulling the ball as much, which generally suppresses overall numbers.

But there are real changes that have be made to his approach. He has sort of cheated his way into newfound plate discipline by simply swinging less in general. His zone-swing rate is down 5.6% but he cut his chase down 6%. Over three-fourths of his at bats start with a take, and he has been swinging less at the best kind of pitches to hit.

In the aggregate, these have led to productive changes that should allow for a solid season. Because he is swinging less, his walk rate jumped over three percent as well.

Teams have started to catch on to the adjustments and have changed their game plans accordingly. Garcia might be ready to lean back into an aggressive approach or this was just a really bad pitch from Jeffrey Springs.

There are some reasons to believe these adjustments have more or less raised his floor than anything else. The ball still jumps off his bat but his pull flyball rate has taken a nose dive, which is part of why he is hitting some loud outs.

But a .707 OPS with his defense in right field is a very good one-year deal. There are very good reasons to believe that will continue.

Jonathan Bowlan’s weird inning in Miami.

Jonathan Bowlan three 31 pitches in Miami against five Marlins hitters. He threw 15 four-seam fastballs in those 31 pitches and only started two hitters with one.

His four-seam fastball is roughly 97 mph with about 18.5 inches of induced vertical break and 8.6 inches of run. It’s one of the best in the majors and has gotten very good results in his limited time as a Phillie. Hitters are only hitting just .111, no extra base hits, and are whiffing over 30% of the time on it. Given that Bowlan is a one or two inning reliever, it just feels like the pitch needs to be thrown more.

15 out of 31 in Miami is actually better than his general season usage at 41.4%, which seems low. He does throw a lot of offerings but given the role, would it be best if he simplified the mix?

The other pitches in his arsenal have been mixed. The changeup has not played very well with hitters hitting .500 on the pitch with a slugging of .625. He picked up a sweeper after joining the Phillies and it’s looked like his best secondary offering to start the season with the slider looking solid as well. He has struggled to land curveballs in the zone consistently and the sinker has generated some weak contact but not a lot of whiffs either.

A four-seam, sweeper, slider pitcher is may run into potential platoon issues but given that those are clearly his three best pitches, they should be what’s featured. The plan around that has to get simplified, given the role he is in and the fact that it isn’t working. He is a much better reliever than the 8.31 ERA would indicate.

It has been very well established at this point, but Foster Griffin throws a lot of pitches, seven of them to be exact. In order of usage, Griffin throws a cutter, a 4-seam fastball, a sweeper, a sinker, a changeup, a curveball and a splitter. However, Foster Griffin is not just throwing a lot of pitches for the sake of it. All of these pitches work together to create a coherent arsenal.

I would not say that any singular pitch Griffin has is elite, but they are all at least average. He is also willing to throw any pitch at any time. Other than his changeup, Griffin throws all his pitches to either handedness of batter. That makes him very unpredictable. This unique arsenal, along with outstanding command is why Griffin has the lowest ERA of any left handed starter.

Let’s break down Griffin’s pitches and talk about how they play off of each other. The bread and butter for Griffin is his cutter. It is the pitch he usually turns to when he really needs a big out. He uses it 31% of the time, which is twice as much as the next closest pitch in his arsenal. His cutter gets solid results, with a .241 average against and 11 strikeouts generated on the pitch. 

However, like most cutter’s, Griffin uses it as a pitch to get soft contact. The average exit velocity against his cutter is just 85.5 MPH, which is very good. He loves spotting that cutter on the inside part of the plate to righties and moving away from lefties. It was his most used pitch before he went to Japan, and it is still the pitch he trusts the most now.

Against the Marlins last night, Griffin was locating the cutter brilliantly. He threw it in the zone 68% of the time, but stayed out of the middle of the plate. Griffin’s cutter set the tone last night, but there are so many other pitches he uses to make his cutter even better.

While Foster Griffin’s changeup is his fifth most used pitch on the season, he relied a lot on it last night. It was the offering he threw the second most, and it was very effective. Marlins hitters swung at the changeup five times, and came up empty on three occasions. The changeup is an offering Griffin uses a lot against righties. However, he has not thrown a changeup all year to a left handed hitter.

With the Marlins stacking their lineup with righties, it is not much of a surprise that Griffin leaned on the changeup. Batters are only hitting .111 on the changeup this year. It pairs well with his cutter. The cutter comes into right handed hitters, while the changeup moves away from them.

One cool thing about Griffin is that he throws a changeup and a splitter that have two very distinct movement profiles. As Nats fans know, Griffin pitched in Japan for three years. Japanese pitchers love throwing splitters, so Griffin picked up that pitch while he was over there. Early in the season, the splitter was one of his better pitches. However, he has not had a great feel for it lately. Last night, he only threw two splitters, preferring the changeup instead.

Having two offspeed pitches is very unique though. Most guys either have a changeup or a splitter, not both. For pitchers, being unique is good and boy is Foster Griffin unique. Not many pitchers have 7 different pitches that are all in different velocity bands and have different movement profiles. Griffin does that, and you can see it when you look at the pitch plot.

Another pitch that Griffin learned in Japan was a sweeper. That pitch has become a massive weapon for him, especially against left handed hitters. His sweeper has a 35.9% whiff rate, the highest of any offering in his arsenal. When Griffin faces big left-handed power bats like Munetaka Murakami, the sweeper is the pitch he usually turns to. He gets a ton of movement on the sweeper, with three more inches of break than the average sweeper. 

It is crazy that we have gotten this deep into the story, and we have not discussed Griffin’s fastball at all. His heater is the least flashy pitch in his arsenal, but his 4-seamer and sinker both play important roles. Griffin is a soft-tosser, who only averages 91 MPH on his fastballs. 

However, he is not afraid to show hitters his heater. Even though his fastball is not hard, you still have to respect the pitch. Batters are only hitting .200 on his 4-seamer and .118 against the sinker. The sinker generates a ton of weak contact, with the average exit velocity on the pitch being just 81.4 MPH. He loves spotting the sinker on the inside corner to lefties and away from righties. The sinker is another pitch he picked up in Japan.

While this play ended up being a disaster, a great example of how Griffin uses his sinker came in the first inning against Kyle Stowers. On a 1-2 pitch, he got the Marlins slugger to swing at a sinker just off the plate and inside. He hit a broken bat bouncer, but the Nats made an error on the play. The result was not what we wanted, but it was a good process.

Another thing that Griffin did really well last night was blowing the 4-seamer by guys. He does not have much velocity, but when he puts his fastball at the top of the zone, it can get whiffs, especially with two strikes. In those two strike counts, a fastball is the last thing these hitters are expecting when facing a junk baller like Griffin. That makes his 90-93 MPH heaters seem a lot harder.

Somehow, there is still another pitch that Griffin throws that I have not talked about yet. The last pitch I want to discuss is Griffin’s curveball. His curveball is a classic 12-6 hook with a ton of drop. Against the Brewers in his previous start, the hook was a big time weapon for him. While he threw it 11% of the time last night, it took a back seat to some of his other pitches.

Last night, Foster Griffin showed how valuable a deep arsenal can be. He threw 38 cutters, 15 changeups, 14 sweepers, 13 4-seamers, 11 curveballs, 10 sinkers, and two splitters. Foster Griffin was truly an artist on the mound last night. That artistry got him through seven innings, where he allowed one earned run while striking out 9 and walking just one batter. 

The craziest part is that I am not that surprised by his outing. This was definitely one of Griffin’s best outings, but it was not an outlier. He has gone at least six innings in his last four starts, and has only allowed four earned runs in those outings. That is incredible stuff for a guy who signed a 1-year $5.5 million deal.

He is just such a joy to watch on the mound. One of my favorite Foster Griffin clips is when he struck out the side against the Dodgers, using three different pitches to finish guys. That sums up the Foster Griffin experience so far. His ERA is 2.12, and he has been absolutely masterful. Some of the underlying numbers suggest he may have a tough time keeping this up, but even if he is half the pitcher he has been so far, that is a great deal for the Nats.

With how well he is pitching, Griffin should be a highly attractive trade chip. A lot of contenders need starting pitching right now, and Griffin should be one of the better rentals on the market. Who knows though, if the Nats keep playing as well as they have recently, will they be sellers? I still believe they will be, but it is fun to dream.

Griffin could bring in a real haul for Paul Toboni, and who knows, they could always bring him back as a free agent in the offseason. The Nats missed on a couple pitching signings this offseason, but Foster Griffin has been a grand slam for this front office. Griffin was a 30 year old soft tosser, who only had 8 career innings in the big leagues.

However, Paul Toboni believed in the changes Griffin had made to his pitch mix and mentality. That belief is paying off in a way that I don’t even think the Nats front office could have expected. Foster Griffin has been absolutely fabulous, and that is thanks to his deep and extremely well rounded pitch mix.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (17-20) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land and was solid tossing 3.2 scoreless innings while striking out 5 batters. Hendrickson pitched in relief and went 4.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board on a Nelson solo home run in the 9th inning but that was it as Sugar land fell 2-1.

Note: Pecko has a 1.04 ERA in Triple-A this season.

• James Nelson, DH: 2-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• CJ Alexander, LF: 2-for-4
• Carlos Perez, C: 1-for-4
• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-4
• Tommy Sacco, 2B: 1-for-2, BB

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (14-16) won 11-8 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a Sullivan solo home run, Encarnacion RBI single and Guillemette RBI single. They picked up another run in the third inning on an Austin solo home run. McPherson started for the Hooks but struggled allowing 7 runs over 3.1 innings. The Hooks picked up 3 more runs in the 5th on an Austin 2 run home run and Lytle RBI single. The offense tied things up in the 6th on a Holy steal of home. In the 7th, the Hooks took the lead on a Lytle RBI double and Garcia RBI single. The Hooks got one more in the 8th on a Whitaker RBI single. David tossed a scoreless inning in relief and the game was called due to lightning as the Hooks won 11-8.

Note: Holy is hitting .500 in Double-A.

• Joseph Sullivan, CF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2B, SB
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 2-for-5, 2 R, RBI, SB
• Trevor Austin, DH: 2-for-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB
• Garret Guillemette, 1B: 1-for-5, RBI
• Mason Lytle, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Alberto Hernandez, 3B: 2-for-4

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (8-23) lost 13-8 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville but struggled allowing 9 runs, 7 earned, over 1.2 innings. He was relieved by Pena who allowed 2 runs over 3.2 innings. Asheville got on the board scoring 2 runs in the 4th on a Daudet RBI single and Walker RBI groundout. They scored 2 more runs in the 5th on a Frey solo home run and Call RBI double. Rome picked up 2 more runs to extend their lead. In the 9th, the Asheville offense battled getting a 3 run home run from Frey and a solo home run from Schiavone, but unfortunately it wasn’t enough as Asheville fell 13-8.

Note: Frey is hitting .294 over his last 8 games.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Ethan Frey, LF: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-5, 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI
• Chase Call, RF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Narbe Cruz, SS: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 2-for-4, RBI
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Alain Pena, RHP: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Eurys Martich, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (12-19) lost 10-4 (BOX SCORE) 

Dixon started for the Woodpeckers and allowed 2 runs over 3.1 innings while striking out 7 batters. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring a run on an error. Serrano relieved Dixon but struggled allowing 5 runs, 3 earned, over 2.2 innings. The offense picked up 3 runs in the 6th scoring 2 runs on an error and another run on a Sierra RBI double. Wells relieved Serrano and allowed 3 runs as the Warbirds put the game out of reach. The Woodpeckers were unable to respond and fell 10-4.

Note: Sierra is hitting .349 over his last 13 games.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, R
• Juan Sierra, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI

• Joey Dixon, RHP: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Brandon Cassedy, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon Bielak – 6:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 6:05 CT

AV: TBD – 5:05 CT

FV: Ryan Forcucci – 6:05 CT

The 2026 Cubs are off to an historic start. It’s an exceedingly rare occurrence to have two distinct 10-game winning streaks over a team’s first 39 games. Certainly none of us have seen the Cubs do anything like this before. For what it’s worth, just from an overall standpoint, it only took the 2016 Cubs 40 games to win 29. The Cubs will take at least 41 to get there and that would mean sweeping this series. After reaching 29 wins, though, that 2016 team lost three straight. If these Cubs split their next four games, they will have matched those Cubs through 43 games.

I traditionally abhor comparisons like that. Chasing the best seasons (or best players) in your team’s history just sets you up for failure. This team is very much different than that one. But more importantly, this team could win more games than that one in the regular season and not win a championship. Or, it could lose more regular season games but go on to win anyway. While regular season success has some correlation to postseason success there are many factors that can be predictive of postseason success. That’s why I don’t like comparisons. Instead, I like to let each season breathe and be its own thing.

Through a fresh lens, I’m able to relax and enjoy myself more. To enjoy what each win can bring. Right now, I’m enjoying underestimating this team. I’m normally such an optimist when it comes to them. I feel like I’m usually a little bit disappointed because that they leave some winnable games on the table. Not this team, though. Over the first few weeks of the season, maybe they let one or two get away. But over these last 23 games? Just one game in San Diego that maybe a couple more plays might have flipped. Otherwise, this team just keeps winning. They win when everything clicks. They win when things are rough.

20 wins in 23 games. It really is quite remarkable. It’s the kind of run that an all-time great NBA team might go on. It’s usually the kind of run we only really see out of the best few NCAA hoops teams in a given year. It is a wholly remarkable streak for an MLB team to have. It’s frankly inconceivable. And a whole lot of fun. And I just don’t want it to end. Keep the greed rolling. I don’t know where all of this ends, but let’s just keep tearing up the script.

Three Positives:

• Ben Brown got things started (hat tip to two red-hot Cubs in Michael Conforto and Ian Happ for staking him a lead four batters into the game). Ben threw four innings with just one walk standing between him and perfection. I thought for sure that three innings would be the best we could possibly expect. And he beat that expectation.
• Seiya Suzuki gave the Cubs some cushion with a two-run homer. He also drew two walks and ended up scoring two total runs.
• Javier Assad threw 3.2 innings of relief, needing 12 batters to get 11 outs. Between Assad and Brown, they faced 25 Rangers and allowed two walks and one hit. The Rangers offense was kept very, very quiet.

Hat tip to just about everyone, but particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had two more hits including a double the other way and stole a base. OPS .721 and climbing (wRC+ 103)

Game 39, May 8: Cubs 7, Rangers 1 (27-12)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ben Brown (.212). 4 IP, 13 BF, 0 H, BB, 0 ER, 3 K
• Hero: Javier Assad (.194). 3.2 IP, 12 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, K (W 3-1)
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.133). 1-3, HR, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.155). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, H, 2 BB, ER
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.056). 0-4
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.052). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s two-run homer with no outs in the fourth extended the Cub lead to three. (.159)

*Rangers Play of the Game: Justin Foscue singled with runners on first and second and one out in the fifth, scoring the Rangers only run and briefly cutting the Cub lead to two. (.106)

Player of the Game:

Game 38 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 204 of 289 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +12
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Michael Bsuch +9
• Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -13

Current Win Pace: 112.15 wins

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set on Saturday night in Texas. Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.27, 41.1 IP) makes his eighth start as a Cub. He’s thrown at least five innings in every start and has allowed exactly three earned runs in five consecutive starts (winning three of those). So you kind of know what to expect out of him. In two road starts, he’s allowed three runs in 11.1 innings.

26-year-old Jack Leiter (1-3, 5.45, 38) makes his eighth start of the year. The second overall pick by the Rangers is one of five different family members to pitch professionally. Most of us know his cousin Mark Jr. best, former Cub. Al Leiter is Jack’s dad and Mark Leiter Sr. his uncle. One can only imagine what a family softball game might look like. Jack has made 45 appearances at the big league level, 42 of them starts, with a 4.91 ERA. So he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of the 2nd overall pick yet. But he does have 43 strikeouts in his 38 innings, so the stuff is real. Last time out, he allowed five runs on five hits and a walk in 6.2 innings, striking out 10. He was the loser in that one and hasn’t won since his season debut back on March 30.

Keep finding ways to win.

Go Cubs.

Good morning ,LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Cubs last night with what was, by my count, their fourth horrible loss in five games.

Evan Grant focuses on maybe the worst defensive play in MLB this season in his game story.

Kennedi Landry writes about the weird night for Kumar Rocker.

Jeff Wilson says far and away No. 1 on the Rangers list of needs is for Corey Seager to get it in gear.

Elsewhere the Rangers offered updates on a whole heap of injured pitchers, including Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery.

Josh Sborz has entered baseballs mechanical maintenance program.

Grant says don’t sell off quite yet in his weekly Rangers stock report.

MLB Pipeline released its first official 2026 mock draft.

And Shawn McFarland tells the story of how rookie reliever Payton Gray has drawn inspiration from his mother’s battle with cancer.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers look to bounce back today against the Cubs at 6:05 with Jack Leiter on the mound for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's another full slate across the Major Leagues today, and there's no shortage of value in my MLB player props. I'll include Shea Langeliers, Otto Lopez, and Jack Leiter. 

Read more for my MLB picks for Saturday, May 9. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Shea Langeliers	Over 1.5 total bases	+100
Otto Lopez	Over 1.5 hits	+159
Jack Leiter	Over 16.5 outs recorded	-120

Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Shea Langeliers has served as one of the Athletics' best hitters this year. He's batting .333 with 11 home runs, and Langeliers has already smacked six hits in May. The slugger has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last five contests. While Langeliers was just 1-for-5 on Friday, he finished 2-for-5 in the finale against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday with a long ball. 

Langeliers will face Baltimore Orioles righty Shane Baz today, who has a 4.99 ERA. Langeliers is 4-for-10 lifetime against him with a pair of doubles and a home run. Only one of his hits versus the right-hander hasn't been for extra bases. He's also hitting .323 against righties, and Baz is a very inconsistent arm.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, NBCS-CA

Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits (+159)

Otto Lopez has emerged as one of the top hitters in the Majors in 2026. He leads the MLB in hits with 50, and the infielder has cashed the Over in hits in back-to-back games. Lopez finished 3-for-4 in the series opener against the Washington Nationals on Friday evening, and he was also 2-for-4 on Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Lopez will be excited for this matchup as the Nats send Zack Littell to the hill, who owns an ERA north of seven. While Lopez is 0-for-3 vs. Littell, it's a small sample size, and Littell has allowed 40 hits in 32.1 innings of work this season. Lopez is batting .341 at home, and he's also hitting .454 in May so far. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV

Jack Leiter Over 16.5 outs recorded (-120)

Jack Leiter may not have the best ERA early on, but he's pitching deep into games lately. The Texas Rangers starter has hit the Over in outs recorded in back-to-back outings, lasting six innings on April 27, and another 6.2 frames last time out. While he gave up nine earned runs combined in those starts, the Rangers have given him a longer leash.

He's also pitched better at home, compiling a 4.50 ERA compared to a 6.14 ERA on the road. Leiter also has just four free passes across his last three starts, which is a big reason Texas has left him out there longer than usual. Facing the Chicago Cubs won't be easy, but Leiter will battle and keep his team in the game.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, CW33

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Offense may be in short supply for two losing teams

The New York Mets look to win their third series in a row as they play game two in Arizona. Despite the recent run of success, New York is still tied for the worst record in the National League.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are only 2.5 games better, however.

Neither team has been hitting, but the Mets have the better end of the pitching matchup. That's why my Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks have the Mets winning as a road favorite.

Who will win Mets vs Diamondbacks today: Mets moneyline (-108)

Both teams have been punchless, but pitching has been the difference. The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks each scored under five runs in seven of 10 games.

But New York is 3-4 as their pitchers matched opposing zeroes, while Arizona lost all of them.

The Mets are in better shape Saturday, with NL ERA leader Clay Holmes on the mound. His walk rate is the lowest in four years, and his hit rate is the lowest in five.

Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who has been a disaster so far this year. He's walking 7.1 batters per nine innings and allowing a home run every three innings.

COVERS INTEL:Kelly literally could not be worse so far this season. He's in baseball's bottom 1% in pitching run value, both fastball and offspeed run value, expected ERA, and opposing batting average, as well as opponent barrel percentage.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-108)

The Mets rank at the bottom of MLB in OPS and second-to-last in runs per game. They've hit slightly better over the last week, but were still 6% below league average over that span.

If Kelly, who missed spring training with an injury, can't figure out what to adjust to regain his old form, the Mets should be able to score. But in that case, Kelly likely won't be around very long.

The D-Backs have been better, but still below league average, at the plate all season, but their bats have abandoned them lately. Arizona is hitting .171 with .548 OPS over the last week, 42% below league average.

Mets vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Mets -108 | Diamondbacks +104
• Run line: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+104) | Under 9.5 (-108)

Mets vs Diamondbacks trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Mets vs Diamondbacks and game info

Mets vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Mets vs Diamondbacks weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.