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Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement is positioned for another productive day at the plate with sinker-baller Bryce Elder on the mound for the Atlanta Braves.  

That makes Clement Over 1.5 total bases my favorite play for my Blue Jays vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 2. 

Blue Jays vs Braves predictions

Blue Jays vs Braves best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 bases (+155)

Ernie Clement enters Tuesday's matchup leading the American League with 68 hits while recording a hit in 13 of his last 14 games, including nine extra-base hits.

His hitting profile matches up well against Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder, who pitches to contact with an 88.1% zone-contact rating, while primarily relying on a sinker/slider combination with an 85% usage rate against right-handed hitters to get outs. 

His 23.2% whiff rate also ranks him in the 23rd percentile. 

That all plays directly into the Toronto Blue Jays sluggers' strengths. 

Clement is a contact hitter, owning a 92.6% zone-contact rate, while crushing the sinker/slider combo with a .358 average and a .444 slug against those pitches. I’d play Clement Over 1.5 bases to +130.

COVERS INTEL:Clement’s consistency at the plate has resulted in a 176 WRC+ over his last 14 outings, averaging 2.4 total bases per game. 

Blue Jays vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

Nathan Lukes owns a .429 batting average and a 195 WRC+ in his last 25 at-bats since returning from the IL for Toronto and has cleared his 0.5 hits total in six straight outings.

I’ll play the strong matchup game between Jays starter Kevin Gausman and Braves’ Sandy Leon, who is 0-for-14 against Toronto’s ace with a 43% strikeout rate. He also owns a 50% whiff rate against the splitter this season. Add Leon Over 0.5 K’s to the SGP. 

Blue Jays vs Braves SGP

• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits
• Sandy Leon Over 0.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Braves home run pick: George Springer (+540)

Elder has allowed just five home runs all season, making this more of a half-unit sprinkle than a full-sized play.

Still, George Springer has shown encouraging signs lately, recording a hit in 10 of his last 13 games. Last season, he excelled against sinker-heavy pitchers, batting .371 with a .661 expected slugging percentage against the pitch type.

With his recent approach at the plate trending in the right direction, Springer is my home run pick for Tuesday afternoon.

Blue Jays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +113 | Atlanta -125
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-195)  | Atlanta -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Blue Jays vs Braves trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Braves and game info

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Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford will both be with the Frisco Roughriders on a rehab assignment today. The Roughriders players will be eating well tonight.

Seager last played on May 13. The Rangers had an off day on May 14, and then Seager had a planned day off on May 15. On May 16, Seager reported back spasms which ultimately landed him on the injured list.

Langford, meanwhile, last played in the majors on April 21. He left that game due to forearm soreness, and ended up on the injured list with a forearm strain. He was with Round Rock on a rehab assignment over the weekend, DHing on Saturday and playing left field on Sunday.

With the Rangers off on Thursday, my guess is that Langford and Seager play for Frisco today and tomorrow and, if everything goes well, would be activated on Friday when the team returns home.

The Rangers will have some decisions to make once Langford and Seager return, as well as Sam Haggerty, who is currently on bereavement leave. Alejandro Osuna has been playing left field against righthanded pitchers in Langford’s absence, and with Langford returning to full time left field duties, Osuna would seem likely to be sent back to AAA.

With Seager back at shortstop, Ezequiel Duran would go back to being the regular second baseman, as well as playing some outfield. If the Rangers were to keep Haggerty once he returns from bereavement leave, that would allow the team to send Michael Helman back to AAA, as Haggerty would be the fourth outfielder. Should they decide they want to keep Freeman and let Haggerty go, Helman would probably need to stay up as the fourth outfielder, and either Nicky Lopez would be cut loose or Justin Foscue would get sent back down. Alternatively, they could send Freeman down when Seager is activated, waive Haggerty, and keep Helman up as the fourth outfielder.

The Jays finally got a day off after finishing 17 straight games with a 10-7 record. But back at it tonight, they are facing the team with the best record in all of baseball: Atlanta Braves. The Braves have gone 40-20 so far this season, burying their closest competitors at 9.5 games back out of first. This has been powered by an offense that leads baseball in RBIs, is second in home runs, and sports a top five rotation and bullpen. They’ve managed this despite injuries that have benched 2025 RoY Drake Baldwin and starter Spencer Schwellenbach.

I reached out to Battery Power’s Ivan the Great to answer a few questions about the Braves team and how their fans view the 2026 season.

Atlanta has a commanding lead at the top of the NLE right now, clicking on all cylinders. What are the key elements that are driving their winning ways so far?
Comprehensively answering this question would probably take 3,000 words, so I’ll focus on a few. First, the team was already supposed to be pretty good; last year was the outlier driven by a completely unforced error of a top-down change to team offensive approach, and then intensified by an absurdly bad run of injuries. Second, it looks like last year has finally spurred some changes in how the team approaches individual games, with new skipper Walt Weiss implementing a much more “let’s try to win most games we’re in” mentality that was absent from about 2023-onward when the team’s projections were really good. Third, they’re back to focusing on what many hitters were acquired for and initially coached to do: hit homers. Even as MLB continues to “experiment” with increased drag on the ball, that still remains the dominant strategy where you have the personnel to achieve it. Lastly, the defense has been really good, with Mauricio Dubon and a hopefully-it’s-not-just-a-small-sample defensive resurgence from Ozzie Albies really making the pitching look more effective than it has been

Baldwin looked like he was recreating his rookie season before the injury. How soon are the Braves hoping to get him back and why do you think he’s been able to successfully build on last season so far this season?

It looks like the timeline for Drake Baldwin is about mid-June, but the Braves generally slow-play injury returns, and there’s little reason to rush him back given the standings. Baldwin has an almost-ideal profile in that he doesn’t have a particular long swing, nor is he jumping out to pull the ball, but he’s able to generate a fast, hard swing that can cover the zone and then some even though he doesn’t need to cheat or rely on a longer swing through the zone to do it. This year, a huge difference has been simply hitting the ball in the air more, letting that hard swing turn what used to be lasers through the infield into things that go a lot further than the infield. Combine his ability to cover non-strikes and hit them pretty hard with a teamwide approach that’s tilted back towards aggression and damage on contact, and you’ve basically got a monster at the plate at this point.

Matt Olson continues to rake for the Braves. Anyone still missing Freeman or regretting that deal?

I’m sure lots of folks are still missing Freddie Freeman, but I hope that Olson continues to take the sting out of those proceedings. It’s worth noting that post-trade, through May 2026, Freeman still has a sizable fWAR advantage (23.7 to 19.3) and a large xwOBA lead (about .020) as well. That said, I don’t think the Braves would’ve been able to get out of Freeman what the Dodgers did in his 30s, as the Dodgers re-oriented him towards something he probably enjoys more (spraying liners) than what the Braves were morphing into (hitting bombs and scowling disgustedly at the punishment meted out, something Olson excels at).

Which prospect are Braves fans most excited for that debuted or might debut this year?

I think this was probably JR Ritchie, and folks got their wish as he was ultimately called up and did… okay for a call-up but not so great for an MLB pitcher. That excitement only grew after Ritchie’s very fun MLB debut, but he never really got back to that level of performance and has some stuff to figure out in the minors.

Who is your favourite member of the team to watch right now?

Well, Baldwin’s on the shelf, so I’d probably have to go with Chris Sale, because it’s just such a confident form of dominance. He’s not necessarily outsmarting you (guys, it’s two pitches) and it’s not like he can’t be squared up at all such that he never even has to work out of a jam or anything. But, when it comes down to it, the combination of his delivery and arm angle just makes trying to face his slider comical… and then you remember that he can blow it by you in the zone, too. At this point, everyone pretty much knows how Chris Sale is going to pitch against them, but it doesn’t help them much, not even when they stand in the box against him multiple times a game. In a league where many pitchers kind of feel like cookie cutter-esque fastball/slider guys that are nonetheless effective if interchangeable, Chris Sale stands out as a completely different fastball/slider guy who might look similar-if-better on paper, but looks like he’s from a completely different league when he gets up there and gets guys to swing and miss by a foot on a slider that sweeps all the way across the center field camera view.

And just a fun little exercise, if you could make a guaranteed trade for one player from a division rival, who would it be and what would you consider a fair return to acquire them?

The Braves don’t have too much that they could, and would want to, offer to improve what already looks like one of MLB’s best rosters. So, I’ll focus on plugging a hole in this one. The Braves could use another lefty reliever, as Aaron Bummer’s shoulder cratered his effectiveness and he was sent packing a few weeks ago. Brooks Raley is a boring older lefty veteran type who isn’t making much this year, and wouldn’t cost much of anything that the Braves would likely miss, either. While the Braves probably won’t actually get Raley given general Braves-Mets animosity, I expect them to add one or maybe two Raley analogues before the summer ends.

Thanks Ivan!

The Royals have lost 16 of 20 games, and are now just a half game from having the worst record in baseball in early June. The season has been a huge disappointment for a team that largely returned a roster coming off back-to-back winning seasons and was expecting to contend for a post-season spot.

When teams fail to live up to expectations in such dramatic fashion, fans and media begin to call for people to be fired. Royals manager Matt Quatraro was hired in 2023, and the next season he was praised for one of the biggest improvements in recent baseball history, winning 30 more games and reaching the playoffs. The team took a step back in 2025, but still finished with a winning record.

But now, as the team stumbles to a 23-37 start, the calls for a change in the dugout grow louder. Quatraro signed a three-year contract extension in January, which would seem to make a change unlikely. J.J. Picollo has expressed confidence in his skipper, telling reporters last week that the data doesn’t suggest a change would matter.

“You can go back and look at all the historical research on changing coaching staffs. There’s not a lot of strong data on changing coaching staffs mid-season leading to what you need to do. It appeases the fanbase because you’ve made a change, but we have to be logical in our thinking.” 

Does firing a manager make a difference in team performance? Studies suggest a manager only has a net impact of a few wins or losses per year. Some moves backfire and blow the game, but other moves help win games and counteract those moves. Ultimately, a win/loss record is dependent largely on the level of talent.

But baseball is a results-oriented business, and a manager’s job is to win games. Aside from in-game tactical decisions, there is the question on how effective a manager is at getting the most out of his roster, or even getting it to overachieve. Leadership does matter, and if players are underperforming their expected talent level, questions will be pointed at the manager for what he is doing or not doing to get a better performance out of his players. Sometimes, a leadership style gets stale, a clubhouse vibe turns sour, and a clubhouse shake-up is needed.

Dan Syzmborski at Fangraphs took a look at this earlier this year after the Red Sox and Phillies each dismissed their respective skippers back in April. The Phillies have taken off since Don Mattingly took over for Rob Thomson, and are now over .500. The Red Sox have played near .500 baseball under Chad Tracy, a slight improvement over how they played under Alex Cora, but not enough to get them out of the cellar.

Syzmborski examined 40 managerial firings since the start of the 2004 season and found:

On a fundamental level, the teams did play better ball after firing their manager. The teams had a .414 winning percentage when their managers were fired, and the replacements accumulated a .467 winning percentage the rest of the way. Thirty two of the 40 teams saw their record improve. 

So teams do generally improve in the win/loss column. But how much of this is the manager’s doing, and how much of this is underperforming teams simply regressing toward the mean? The Phillies and Red Sox were projected to be talented teams that could contend for postseason spots. Did they improve because the new manager made a difference? Or was it the team reverting to their true talent level? Or perhaps even a “dead cat bounce” where no team can play that poorly for that long?

Syzmborski compared how the team projected to do based on “rest of the season projections” at the time of the managerial change, and compared them to how the manager actually fared. The result was that “across 3,061 games managed, the new managers won 1.5 fewer games than expected…..a statistically insignificant difference.” The Red Sox were on pace to lose 102 games when Cora was fired – the team may be playing better under Tracy mostly because the roster talent level isn’t that bad. Don Mattingly has fared well for the Phillies, but it also helps that he took over when the Giants, Marlins, and Rockies were on the schedule.

That doesn’t necessarily mean a managerial firing is the wrong move. Teams do not operate in a vacuum of projections and probability. When a club is careening toward a disappointing season, ownership and the front office are often compelled to show that someone is being held accountable. A managerial change can signal that the organization recognizes the failure and is unwilling to accept it, even if the move itself is unlikely to produce a dramatic turnaround. The problem is that accountability and improvement are not always the same thing. Royals history offers several examples of that distinction.

Here are some of the recent mid-season managerial firings in Royals history.

1991 John Wathan fired, Bob Schaefer named interim manager, Hal McRae hired

The Royals went on a free agent splurge in 1990, signing Mark and Storm Davis (no relation), only to see those moves backfire. The team lost 86 games, at the time tying for the third-worst season in club history, and the low-key approach of manager John Wathan drew scrutiny. The next year, the team got off to a 15-22 (.405) start when new GM Herk Robinson fired Wathan in May, replacing him with Expos hitting coach and former Royals star Hal McRae. McRae wanted a much more aggressive style on the bases, – their stolen bases per game went from 0.54 under Wathan to 0.79 under McRae. He may have light a fire under the team, as they went 66-58 (.532) under him and finished with a winning record.

1997 Bob Boone fired, Tony Muser hired

The Royals wanted a youth movement after the work stoppage in 1995, and they brought in the academically-minded Bob Boone to oversee the effort. His first season was near .500, but the team lost 86 games his second year, and once again had a losing record of 36-46 (.439) going into the 1997 All-Star break. The Royals canned Boone and replaced him with Cubs hitting coach Tony Muser, but the team fared much worse, going just 31-48 (.392) down the stretch.

2002 Tony Muser fired, John Mizerock named interim manager, Tony Peña hired

Muser had a dour attitude, seemed to dig at one of his best hitters (Mike Sweeney), and was criticized for overusing his few good pitchers. He had four full losing seasons – at the time, some of the worst in club history – and yet the team seemed to stick with him. They finally fired him in 2002, after an 8-15 (.347) start, replacing him with bullpen coach John Mizerock on an interim basis. They lost their first six games with Mizerock in the dugout, but after they swept Cleveland, some fans wanted Mizerock to get the job on a full-time basis. Instead, they hired Astros bench coach Tony Peña, at the time a hot managerial prospect who had success in the minors and had been a widely respected player. The team did not play much better, going 49-77 (.389), and suffering two eight-game losing streaks and a 7-19 September.

2005 Tony Peña resigns, Bob Schaefer named interim manager, Buddy Bell hired

After a surprising run in 2003, Peña’s Royals fell back to earth with a thud in 2004. In 2005, he resigned in May with the team 8-25 (.242), the worst record in baseball. At the time, it seemed as if the stress of having the worst team in baseball had caused the resignation, but later reports indicated Peña may have been distracted by his involvement in a contentious divorce case in which he was alleged to have had an affair with the wife. After going 5-12 with interim manager Bob Schafer (.294), the team hired former Tigers and Rockies manager Buddy Bell who was Cleveland’s bench coach. The Royals went just 43-69 (.384) with Bell, a preview of the losing to come under his helm.

2010 Trey Hillman fired, Ned Yost hired

The Royals made an unconventional hire in Trey Hillman, who had become a candidate based on his experience managing in Japan. He won 75 games his first season, and the team got off to a good start in 2009 (18-11!) only to see the bottom drop out in a 97-loss season. The Royals brought in former Brewers manager Ned Yost as a special adviser in the front office, and the writing seemed to be on the wall for Hillman. His team got off to a 12-23 (.343) start, and a week after Dayton Moore said the team was not planning any moves, Hillman was let go. The Royals played much better under Yost until a September swoon, but they still finished with a 55-72 (.433) record on his watch.

It was quite a bloodletting for seeded teams in the tournament this weekend. Seven of the sixteen seeded were wiped away in the first weekend, including the top two seeds in UCLA and Georgia Tech. There were some great performances in the tournament though. It’s possible some of these players that we’re tracking were able to move up the board.

To start off, let’s talk about Aiden Robbins.

Well, that’s some opposite field power. Per Baseball America, he’s not a player that puts the ball in the air a lot and has a “hit-over-power” profile. He appears to have made an exception today. If he keeps trending in this direction, he might not stay in the middle of the first round very long. Aiden continues play next weekend versus Oregon.

Justin Lebron looks like a solid five-tool guy. Here he is showing off the power, pulling a ball on the outside corner into the scoreboard area. He displayed some speed as well with two stolen bases. He plays solid defense as shortstop as well. The only knock is his contact skills, but it’s a smal knock. Justin will play against St. John’s this weekend.

Oklahoma took out the number two seed in the tournament with two wins over Georgia Tech. Brendan Brock helped lead the way with two home runs and 8/15 overall at the plate. He can play catcher and center field, which might make him an unique one in this year’s draft. Brendan will be at Kansas this weekend.

Here’s another catcher with pop. Daniel Jackson had two home runs and a double and went 5/10 overall. The power is there with above average speed. The defense is a bit of a question mark despite his good arm. Daniel will play Mississippi State this weekend.

Alex Hernandez went ham over the weekend in a losing effort for Georgia Tech. He grabbed 4 home runs and 3 other hits. There is a lot of swing-and-miss in his profile, but hoo boy the power is there. He has some work to do with zone recognition, but it’s nothing that a summer in High A ball wouldn’t cure. Georgia Tech’s season is over, but that just allows some of their players more prep time for the draft.

Speaking of Georgia Tech players getting ready for the draft, I present Drew Burress. If you can call 4/16 and 2 home runs as a quiet weekend, it’s because there were some ridiculous lines put up this week. Burress is listed at number 4 to 10 depending on what publication you are reading. A lot of mock draft have him going to the Braves. The hit, power, and speed tools are there, and most observers think he can stick in center field. 60 home runs in a college career for a 5-9 180 guy seems like a ton.

Want to see a late first round pitching prospect? Hunter Dietz punched out 14 Jayhawks in a loss to Kansas. Dietz is a big lefty at 6-6 230. He sits 95 on the fastball and touches 98. He features a pretty good slider/cutter and a curveball. He’s a guy with a lot of bullets left, as he dealt with a stress fracture early in his college career. I’m not saying he’s not going to the Braves. He’s too big to say that to him. We can say his college season has ended.

Gavin Grahovac had three home runs, three walks, and a single in a regional loss over the weekend. There were some questions about his contact skills, but he seems to have dealt with those. He has overcome shoulder surgery in 2025 to hit 47 home runs in his college career. The observers love his physicality, but it’s unclear if he will play corner outfield in the pros. Texas A&M’s season is over.

AJ Gracia displayed all of his skills over the weekend, reaching base 10 times. He was spraying the ball around the park and had this super catch to rob Jacksonville State of a home run. AJ put up a .354/.489/.632 line with 24 home runs for Virginia. Baseball America likes him in the 10-15 range. Virginia’s season is over.

I didn’t watch college baseball at all, but I did get to see some late Sunday and Monday. There are more 95+ MPH pitchers in college than I realized. These hitters are using he aluminum bats, but their contact skills are no joke. Their defense collectively looks to be a work in progress, but these guys will play two or three seasons in the minor leagues anyway. There appears to be a ton of hitting talent in the draft, and the Braves could even grab a catcher or center fielder.

With a .301/.416/.634 slash line through his first 60 games of the season, it’s not a question of whether Yordan Alvarez will be selected to his fourth American League All-Star team. The question is whether he’ll be traveling to Philadelphia alone.

It’s been 12 years since the Astros were limited to a single All-Star, and only once during that span have they had fewer than three representatives. So who could join Alvarez at next month’s Midsummer Classic?

Spencer Arrighetti

Arrighetti has been historically good since beginning the season in Sugar Land. His 1.34 ERA is the eighth-best mark in Astros history through a pitcher’s first eight starts of a season, and it would lead the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.

The Astros are 7-1 in Arrighetti’s starts, and he’s completed at least five innings in every outing while allowing two or fewer earned runs each time.

Arrighetti’s 3.97 FIP indicates he’s been a little fortunate, and his strikeout rate is below league average while his walk rate is above it. However, he’s been elite at limiting hard contact and has surrendered just two home runs.

The biggest strike against Arrighetti’s All-Star candidacy is his lack of innings, the result of making three or four fewer starts than the other pitchers competing for a spot. He won’t be able to make up all of that ground over the next month, but he’ll have a chance to narrow the gap. If he pitches anywhere close to the level he has through his first eight starts, he’ll likely join Alvarez in Philadelphia.

Christian Walker

What a difference a year makes for the 35-year-old first baseman, whom the Astros appeared ready to salary dump over the offseason. Walker finished May with 16 homers, 43 RBIs, and an .835 OPS after ending last May with seven homers, 25 RBIs, and a .630 OPS.

Walker leads the Astros in RBIs and trails only Alvarez in home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. This is the production the Astros thought they were getting when they signed Walker to a three-year, $60 million contract after the 2024 season.

The biggest hurdle standing between Walker and his first All-Star bid is that first base in the American League is stacked.

Ben Rice, Nick Kurtz, Munetaka Murakami, Willson Contreras, and Jonathan Aranda are AL first basemen with higher OPS marks than Walker. Murakami is currently on the injured list with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, which could create a slight opening, but an All-Star selection still feels unlikely unless Walker goes on a tear in June.

Shohei Ohtani had three more hits on Monday night in Phoenix, extending his on-base streak to 18 games. He’s been hot at the plate for the last three weeks, dating back to May 12, the day before he got a little two-game rest at the plate amid a hitting slump.

In those 18 games, Ohtani is hitting .415/.506/.723 with 11 extra-base hits. That includes a ringing double to left center field that bounced off the warning track on Monday night.

This wasn’t necessarily a near home run — Baseball Savant says the 102.8-mph drive hit 375 feet with a 22-degree launch angle would have been a home run only in Wrigley Field among the 30 MLB parks — but it was a sign that Ohtani is locked in at the plate. Orel Hershiser commented on it on the SportsNet LA broadcast, and manager Dave Roberts likes to say Ohtani is at his best when he’s using all parts of the field.

Ohtani has 10 home runs through the Dodgers’ first 60 games, which puts him on pace for 27 home runs this year. It’s hard to be disappointed in a hitter with a 153 wRC+ — even before considering that player is alsoone of the best pitchers in baseball — but Ohtani’s first two seasons with the Dodgers broke the scale for proper calibration. That’s what happens when you set a franchise home run record in each of your first two seasons, hitting 54 home runs in 2024 and 55 in 2025.

Ohtani hit six home runs in March/April, and four in May. Those are his two lowest home run months with the Dodgers, with April tied with July 2024 as his previous home run nadir in Los Angeles. In every other month with the Dodgers, Ohtani hit between seven and 15 home runs.

In his career, June is Ohtani’s best power month, with 62 home runs and a .723 slugging percentage in 163 career games during the month.

Ohtani career splits

• March/April: 43 HR (one per 18.3 PA), .559 SLG
• May: 53 HR (one per 16.1 PA), .546 SLG
• June: 62 HR (one per 11.3 PA), .723 SLG
• July: 46 HR (one per 15.6 PA), .543 SLG
• August: 47 HR (one per 18.2 PA), .537 SLG
• September: 39 HR (one per 17.4 PA), .582 SLG

Whether you think Ohtani has another June to remember brings us to today’s question: How many home runs with Shohei Ohtani hit this June? He hit 12 home runs in June 2024, and seven in June 2025, for reference.