When the lights are brightest, Steve Staios is not afraid of pulling the trigger.
During last year's Stanley Cup Final, the Ottawa Senators' general manager unquestionably made the biggest trade of his tenure by dealing Joonas Korpisalo and a first-round pick to the Boston Bruins for goaltender Linus Ullmark.
The Senators find themselves back in the rumour mill with the 2025 Stanley Cup Final getting underway on Wednesday night.
In Tuesday's episode of 'The Sheet', host Jeff Marek was expounding on the Dallas Stars' situation after they were disappointingly bounced from the Western Conference final for a third consecutive season.
PuckPedia lists the Stars as having approximately $5 million in cap space with eight forwards, six defencemen and two goaltenders under contract for the 2025-26 season. They face an impending crunch wherein productive veterans like captain Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, and Evgenii Dadonov will hit unrestricted free agency.
Without much cap flexibility, it will put significant pressure on general manager Jim Nill to creatively find avenues to preserve this team's competitiveness and maintain the organization's quality of depth.
That search for flexibility was something that Jeff Marek alluded to during his podcast.
"They have just under $5 million of cap space, and they want to change this team," Marek asserted. "It's still going to be a competitive team. No one is talking about taking a step back. But how do you get over the hump?
"The one thing that a lot of people that I talk to keep coming back to is, could Jason Robertson and his $7.75 million contract -- which is a very, very nice number considering the production you get out of Jason Robertson -- is this, I don't want to say the only move, but is it probably the most obvious move that the Dallas Stars could make in order to get a return that can help them get over the hump?"
Drake Batherson Doesn’t Belong Anywhere Near Ottawa's Trade Bait BoardThere's been quite a bit of dialogue over the past few days about Ottawa Senators winger Drake Batherson and potential trade talks around the league. According to Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch, three NHL executives are out there telling people that Batherson is "a name to keep an eye on" as the NHL Draft approaches.
I presume the conversations Marek refers to are with hockey executives, analysts or journalists covering the league. Without any direct sources, it is certainly presented more as inference and speculation than anything, but if he is available, Robertson would be an attractive target -- especially for a goal-starved team like the Ottawa Senators.
Yes, the same Ottawa Senators that Marek would later reference in a separate blog post for the Daily Faceoff, believing them to be an aggressive suitor for Robertson should he become available.
"Could the Stars move someone like Jason Robertson, who has one more year on his deal at an incredible $7.75 million value, to try to recoup Draft capital and free up cap space to once again go big-game hunting in the summer? If so, I'd watch the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks as possible destinations."
The Senators finished tied for 18th in the league in total goals (242) with Pittsburgh. It is a pedestrian figure for a playoff team, but their real struggles occurred at five-on-five. According to NaturalStatTrick, only the Nashville Predators scored fewer five-on-five goals than the Ottawa Senators' 139.
Jason Robertson is a two-time 40-goal scorer, who finished the 2024-25 season with 35 goals and 80 points. His 23 five-on-five goals this season tied for the league's 12th-highest mark, while his 53 points were the sixth-highest total in the league.
His production in the last four seasons is pretty remarkable.
- 2021-22: 74 GP, 41 G, 79 Pts
- 2022-23: 82 GP, 46 G, 109 Pts
- 2023-24: 82 GP, 29 G, 80 Pts
- 2024-25: 82 GP, 35 G, 80 Pts
Only 13 forwards have produced more goals and points during this span and the analytics affirm that he is one of the best offensive players in the league.
The question for the Senators is, what would you give up?
Interestingly, the timing of these Robertson rumours coincides with recent reports that the Senators would consider moving Drake Batherson.
In a vacuum, trading Batherson admittedly does not make much sense. The popular veteran, Claude Giroux, is an aging asset and is an impending unrestricted free agent, so moving a 27-year-old who happens to be the team's youngest and most productive right winger feels odd given the team's struggles offensively.
Batherson was the Senators' second-leading scorer behind Tim Stützle. For the third consecutive season, Batherson finished with more than 20 goals and 60 points.
- 2022-23: 82 GP, 22 G, 62 Pts
- 2023-24: 82 GP, 28 G, 66 Pts
- 2024-25: 82 GP, 26 G, 68 Pts
Points aside, Batherson is just one of five players this season who scored more than 20 goals and 60 points while recording 140 or more hits. And, playoff performance notwithstanding, it is well-documented that Batherson is on a team-friendly contract carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $4.975 million.
To move that kind of production at that cost would be extremely difficult.
In saying that, however, with only two years left on his contract, if the organization wanted to sell high on Batherson, there may not be any better time than the present.
Under the hood, there are reasons to be wary regarding an expensive, long-term extension.
Defensively, Batherson is not terrible. He is closer to being league-average. The offence is interesting because most of his production tends to occur on the power play, where he has scored 34 of his last 76 goals across his last three seasons. He is not exclusively a power play merchant per se, but Batherson will be 29 years old when his current deal expires.
Analytics have demonstrated that a player's offensive peak is typically between 22 and 27 years of age before it plateaus in the late 20s and then declines progressively through their 30s. By the time Batherson hits free agency, the reality facing the team is that while he still represents being a good offensive player, he has likely played his best offensive hockey for the club.
If the Senators are exploring the market for Batherson, it is likely because they are considering both their short and medium-term outlooks. So, the weight of any prospective Robertson trade has to be, "If we trade Batherson for Robertson and sign him to an extension, how much different will their respective contracts be in AAV two years from now?"
With other reports suggesting the Senators are negotiating with Claude Giroux on an extension of his own, the congestion of forwards means that something has to give.
The Ottawa Senators’ Quiet Logjam Up Front: What Are They Planning?If the Ottawa Senators are planning a new contract extension for impending unrestricted free agent Claude Giroux, it is hard not to wonder whether an accompanying trade is on the horizon.
The portrayal of the Staios regime is of a measured and diligent group which will investigate every possibility to improve this team. Without knowing the other permutations of a trade package, flipping Batherson in a deal for Robertson would improve the team offensively and defensively.
But it would likely rob the team of their remaining valuable trade assets, as well.
Once Tyler Kleven inked his two-year extension with a $1.6 million AAV Monday, it left the Senators with approximately $15 million in cap space to shape their roster.
If the Dallas Stars wanted to preserve their competitive window, trading Robertson for a package that includes Batherson would work. He obviously would not replace all of Robertson's production, but he could replace a large chunk of it while saving the Stars $2.5 million that they could reallocate elsewhere to address another spot on the roster.
The two years remaining on Batherson's deal would also give the Stars an additional year of cost certainty that they would not get with Robertson needing an extension.
On the Senators' side of things, acquiring Robertson's cap hit would cut into their limited cap space, which they will need to maximize if they want to re-sign Giroux, add a top-four right-shot defenceman, and add quality depth to the fourth line.
Robertson is close to the same size as Batherson with both players being listed at 6'3" and a shade over 200 lbs. Robertson does not play with the same physicality as Batherson, however. And, based on the NHL's Edge data, he is not as good a skater as Batherson either.
If the Senators have designs for improving their team speed, it will not be accomplished by flipping these two players.
There is also the risk that Robertson would not want to play in Ottawa. Although his contract is not protected by a no-movement or trade clause, the reality of the Senators' situation is that they can ill-afford to move valuable assets for a one-and-done player.
Pierre Dorion's failed Alex DeBrincat experiment familiarly highlights the risks involved. The player holds all the contract negotiation leverage, with his final year of restricted free agent rights kicking in after the 2025-26 season. Without a contract extension in place, any trade involving a player in Robertson's situation has the potential to blow up in the acquiring organization's face.
With a measured front office, however, the likelihood of management incurring these risks without some measure of confidence or a guarantee that the player will sign an extension is small. It paid off last season with Linus Ullmark, and it may pay off again.
Whatever the case, it is encouraging to hear league insiders suggest that there are expectations that the Senators will aggressively be big-game hunting this summer.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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