Vladdy has crushed Bello throughout his career, going 12-for-30 with a 1.153 OPS and two homers.
It’s been a rough start to the season for Bello, who is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA. Analytically, Bello has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, ranking in the second percentile in xERA and a .314 xBA.
COVERS INTEL: Bello has a 50% usage on his sinker to righties, which favors Vladdy and his .364 average against the pitch.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
I’ll continue to fade Bello, and take Over 2.5 earned runs. He’s gone Over this mark in four of his five starts, averaging 4.4 runs allowed per game, and the Jays' lineup matches up well against him.
Which leads me to why I like Over 0.5 runs for Vladdy today as well.
Firstly, he’s scored nine times in his last nine games. However, it’s Toronto’s .320 average against Bello that makes me believe Vlad will not only get on base, but his teammates will drive him in, too, especially with the 1.115 OPS he’s allowed through five starts this year.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays SGP
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Brayan Bello Over 2.5 earned runs
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+575)
75-100 words about the home run pick.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 9-19, -6.95 units
SGPs: 3-25, -12.25 units
HR picks: 5-23, -0.73 units
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Boston +110 | Toronto -130
Run line: Boston +1.5 (-175) | Toronto -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 home games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Red Sox vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Wednesday, April 29, 2026
First pitch
3:07 p.m. ET
TV
Sportsnet
Red Sox starting pitcher
Brayan Bello (1-3, 9.00 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.75 ERA)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Late April is, in many ways, one of the most fun times to look at stats. Now that the season is a month old and can officially be considered “in full swing,” we’ve got just enough data that we have a true representative sample to begin analyzing, but not so much that weird beginning-of-season quirks haven’t fallen away completely. With that in mind, I feel this is a perfect opportunity to dive into the Statcast data and take a look at what we see in order to find some fun, but ultimately meaningless, stats from the first month of 2026.
Death Star Ignitions
We start by introducing the new stat I made up which inspired me to do this piece in the first place, the Death Star Ignition. As you probably know, every time a Yankees pitcher reaches a two-strike count when there are two outs at home, the Stadium plays the Death Star siren. After a rough introduction a couple of years ago, during which time David Cone referred to it as a pregnant whale, it has become a staple in the Bronx, and while not quite as iconic as the P.C. Richard’s whistle after a strikeout, the siren is well on its way to this status, especially among younger fans.
Of course, whenever a team does this sort of visual or audio cue to indicate that there are two strikes on a batter, it makes a subsequent strikeout all the more aesthetically pleasing. And so, I decided to dive into the Statcast data to figure out which Yankees pitchers have been able to most often record the inning-ending strikeout. For this exercise, I divided these strikeouts into two categories: single-reactor ignitions (inspired by the destruction of Jedha City and the military installation on Scariff in Rogue One) occur when a pitcher fails to strike out the batter on the next pitch, but is able to eventually record the K, while a full reactor ignition (such as the one in the original movie) represents a strikeout on the next pitch.
It probably doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the pitchers who have the highest rate of firing the Death Star this season are among the team’s leaders in strikeouts…with a catch, though. Fernando Cruz, whose 35.7 strikeout percentage heading into action last night leads the team, has struggled to get an inning-ending strikeout while at home. Well, you know what they say: that’s baseball, Suzyn.
Batted Ball Shenanigans
Of course, since we’re already on Statcast, let’s also see what players have been given gifts by the baseball gods (have lucked into a hit on a softly batted ball) and who has been cursed by them (a hard-hit ball straight into a glove).
Right now, the three softest hits by a Yankee this season — at 40.3, 35.4, and 28.6 mph off the bat — shouldn’t really count for this exercise, as they are bunts, although I do want to give props to Austin Wells for reaching on a bunt single. Outside of these, then, the softest hit on the year heading into action last night belongs to Randal Grichuk, whose single past a diving Caleb Durbin on April 21st clocked in at just 49.6 mph.
On the flip side of that, the hardest batted ball to become an out comes off the bat off, perhaps unsurprisingly, Aaron Judge, whose ground out to Trevor Story on April 22nd was 112.4 mph off the bat — just, unfortunately, straight down.
For the pitchers, Max Fried on April 11th is the beneficiary of some good luck, as Junior Caminero’s ground ball to Jazz Chisholm came off the bat at 111.1 mph — beating, by just one tenth of a mph, Jac Caglianone’s flyout on the 18th off Will Warren.
Note: Although if you want to get technical, Bobby Witt Jr.’s double on April 19th was technically hit harder, but since the out came at the plate, not on the batted ball, I didn’t count it.
Former Yankees prospect Agustín Ramírez, meanwhile, has the softest hit against any Yankee pitcher this season, dropping a soft grounder into No Man’s Land between third base and the pitcher’s mound at a whopping 48.6 mph.
Note: technically speaking, this was the fifth-softest ball, with the first four being bunts by members of the Tampa Bay Rays, three of which came off the bat of burgeoning Yankees Killer Taylor Walls.
Some final fun facts
Last, and certainly not least, we’ve got a rundown of some basic fun facts that don’t require much explanation, but are nonetheless amusing:
Last season, Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm invented a new stat: home runs plus stolen bases. So which Yankee currently leads this stat, affectionately called the Jazz Chisholm? What a surprise — it’s Aaron Judge, whose 11 home runs and 5 stolen bases give him a grand total of 16 Jazzes on the season. Behind him, we’ve got José Caballero’s 14 (3 HR + 11 SB), Jazz Chisholm’s 12 (3 HR + 9 SB), and Ben Rice’s 11 (10 HR + 1 SB).
Heading into action last night, Caballero and Rice were tied atop the team in Win Probability Added at 1.4. In two appearances against the Yankees this year, Jordan Romano has -1.7 Win Probability Added — yes, that means that Romano has contributed more to Yankees victories than anyone else this season.
Despite being the second fastest runner on the team according to sprint speed (behind only, checks notes, Amed Rosario?), Caballero has grounded into the most double plays so far this season (five).
While Trent Grisham’s overall performance at the plate has been below expectations, as he’s slashing .165/.321/.341 prior to last night’s game, he trails only Rosario and Paul Goldschmidt when it comes to getting runners in: 22.2 percent of runners on base score when he comes to the plate.
Brent Headrick and Tim Hill have yet to allow an inherited runner to score.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 28: Manager Craig Stammen takes relieves Walker Buehler #10 as Ty France #25, Fernando Tatis Jr. #23, Xander Bogaerts #2, and Luis Campusano #12 of the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park on April 28, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Walker Buehler was not sharp, but he was not terrible either. He allowed two runs on three hits and left the game after 4.2 innings with the score tied, 2-2. Kyle Hart came in from the bullpen to help Buehler and the San Diego Padres get out of the inning without allowing a run, but that was where the positives on the night came to an end for the San Diego relievers. The normally steady bullpen, which has been a bit shaky recently, allowed six runs and the Padres dropped the second game of the series to the Chicago Cubs, 8-3 at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Hart returned to the mound for the top of the sixth inning and faced three batters. Two of them reached base and he was replaced by David Morgan. The right-hander uncorked a wild pitch, which allowed the runners to advance to second and third with one out. Morgan then recorded a strikeout for the second out of the inning and gave the Friar Faithful hope that he would strand the inherited runners — he did not. Morgan allowed a two-run double to Nico Hoerner on an 0-1 pitch that put the Cubs in front, 4-2. He got out of the inning one batter later and the Padres responded in the bottom of the inning with a run to cut the deficit to one run. Morgan started the top of the seventh inning but allowed a leadoff walk, which resulted in Padres manager Craig Stammen replacing him with Wandy Peralta. That move did not pay off as the left-hander allowed a two-out pinch-hit RBI single to Alex Bregman that gave the Cubs a 5-3 lead. San Diego fell further behind when Peralta allowed a three-run home run to the next batter Pete Crow-Armstrong that put Chicago in front 8-3. The Padres’ offense did not put up much of a fight in the final innings of the contest, sending three batters to the plate in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.
Padres News:
Manny Machado got the day off following his early exit from the game on Monday night. Jake Cronenworth made the start at third base in Machado’s absence and Fernando Tatis Jr. filled the role at second base.
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 28: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers drives to the basket during the game against the Boston Celtics on April 28, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
An emergency appendectomy.
Just 10 days before the start of the playoffs.
If you had to guess which player it happened to, you’d say “Joel Embiid” before someone even asked. Just another bizarre and unfortunate moment for a player whose career has been derailed by them.
But for one night, there was no talk of bad luck. No concerns over how the Sixers can integrate such a unique player. No questions about what will happen this offseason.
In one of the guttiest postseason performances in Philly sports history, Embiid kept the Sixers’ season alive with a dominant 33-point effort in a 113-97 win over the Celtics in Boston Tuesday night. With the Game 5 victory, the Sixers have forced Game 6 at Xfinity Mobile Arena Thursday.
Embiid returning to the court at all is nothing short of incredible. He was able to play in Game 4, just 17 days after his surgery. No NBA player has ever come back that early from an appendectomy — let alone returned in the middle of an intense playoff series.
After the Sixers were crushed in Game 4, Embiid revealed more details about his most recent ordeal. He felt stomach pains playing against the San Antonio Spurs back on April 6, something he thought might’ve been a stomach bug or food poisoning. The pain only got more intense when the team arrived in Houston for a big matchup against the Rockets. After pushing through the pain at practice that Thursday, it was becoming more intense.
Embiid was unable to sleep that night. When it got to be 4 or 5 a.m. Friday morning, he knew something wasn’t right. He couldn’t go to the bathroom or even walk on his own. That’s when he was taken to the hospital and the surgery was performed.
It wasn’t smooth sailing post-surgery, either. Embiid said he dealt with complications, though he chose to keep the details of those private. Before appearing in Game 4, Embiid was only able to get up and down the floor in practice one time. He then went out and scored 26 points in 34 minutes, looking like the only Sixer putting forth serious effort.
Game 5 started off a bit rocky. The Sixers’ gameplan coming in was to jack up as many threes as possible — a sound strategy against Boston and one that worked to perfection in Game 2. But Embiid was ice cold from deep, missing all three threes he attempted and his first five shots overall. He was better in quarter No. 2, but missed two more threes.
In the third, he made a concerted effort to get into the post. Joe Mazzulla chose not to send help for his big men, allowing Nikola Vucevic and Neemias Queta to take on Embiid 1-on-1. It made sense for Mazzulla to force Embiid to prove he could operate down low.
And he did.
Repeatedly.
It got to a point where it was almost head-scratching for Mazzulla to continue leaving his bigs on an island. When Boston finally tilted the defense Embiid’s way, the Sixers’ offense really opened up. A 10-point third from Embiid whittled a seven-point halftime deficit down to one.
Embiid even had another scare, briefly exiting the game and heading to the locker room after knocking knees with Jaylen Brown. Luckily, Embiid quickly returned to the bench and the game.
In the fourth, as Embiid continued to see multiple bodies in the post, he made the right plays, finding Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes and the Sixers’ other perimeter players for open looks. Embiid finished the night with eight assists to three turnovers.
After many questioned his defense and his ability to move throughout the regular season, he turned in a terrific performance on that end in the fourth, as the Sixers held the Celtics to a paltry 11 points in the period.
Not bad for a guy who’s barely played basketball over the last month.
Say whatever you want about Embiid, just don’t ever question his toughness and desire to play basketball ever again.
“One thing about me,” Embiid told reporters in Boston, “I’ve dealt with a lot of stuff over my career. I don’t complain. I just want to give as much as I can every single time I step on the floor. I know a lot of people might have takes that I might be lazy or whatever, but every single time I’m on the floor, I want to play as hard as possible. I want to do whatever it takes to win a basketball game. …
“I just want to enjoy these moments just being a part of a basketball team that’s trying to accomplish something.”
Torn meniscus (multiple times).
Sprained LCL.
Torn thumb ligaments.
Gastroenteritis.
Broken face (also multiple times).
Add appendicitis to the list of weird, unlucky ailments Joel Embiid has overcome to cement himself as a legend in this city.
Enjoy him while he’s here and capable of nights like this, Sixers fans.
“I didn’t want to go home and think about all summer what could have been if I was healthy going into the playoffs,” Embiid said. “So, one more day and one more game to go out and try to make it back [to Boston for Game 7]. That’s the mentality. I’m just thankful I’m in a position where I get to play. I don’t know how long I have, [how long] I can do this, so I just want to enjoy it as much as possible.”
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 28: Payton Pritchard #11 of the Boston Celtics takes a shot in front of the Philadelphia 76ers bench during the second half of Game Five of the First Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoff at TD Garden on April 28, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images
1. Abysmal 4th Quarter
Going into the fourth quarter of Game 5, the Celtics allowed the 76ers to get back into the game, cutting a 13 point halftime lead to 1 point at 86-85. Boston would then go on to have one of the worst fourth quarters I have ever seen, being out scored 28-11 and Philadelphia was able to take another game in TD Garden, wining 113-97. The negative stats that came out of this abysmal fourth quarter are just something you don’t see every day.
Boston shot 3-22 (14%) fr0m the field, 2-8 (25%) from three, and 3-7 (43%) from the free throw line in the final quarter in this game. After Neemias Queta made an and-1 alley-oop layup at the 7:03 mark, the Celtics would proceed to score ZERO baskets for the rest of the game. Boston missed their last final 14 shots in a row during this time, the most in a playoff game since 2005. The Celtics made three more free throws to finish off their scoring night while the 76ers shot 9-17 (53%) in the fourth quarter. Just an overall, no good, very bad fourth quarter for the Boston Celtics.
2. Forced Embiid to Beat Them
Joel Embiid returned to play in Game 4 in Philadelphia and it looked like he completely threw off the 76ers offense. He finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists on 9-21 shooting and 1-6 from three, essentially shooting Philadelphia out of the game as Boston steamrolled them 128-96. In Game 5, it looked like the Celtics were trying their best to force Embiid to beat them and I would say he did just that. Embiid finished with 33 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds on 12-23 shooting from the field, 0-5 from three, and 9-10 from the free throw line. Boston’s defensive game plan looked to be just leaving him one-on-one and hoping he misses. Whether it was Neemias Queta, Nikola Vucevic, or Luke Gara, nobody could stop Embiid once he made it into the midrange.
This game gave me flashbacks of another big Embiid game that the 76ers won against the Celtics back on December 20th, 2021 when he dropped 41 points on 14-27 shooting. Enes Freedom at the time was the primary defender on him and spent 40 minutes just getting taken to town in the midrange. I never thought I’d see the Celtics run out that same defense scheme against Embiid again, especially in a playoff game, but this game was another example of the one-on-one defense not being a great strategy.
Another reason why the Celtics were so dominant in Game 4 of this series was due to the fact Boston was able to keep the team around Joel Embiid in check. The highest scorer outside of Embiid was Tyrese Maxey who had 22 points, Paul George who had 16 points, and Quentin Grimes who had 12 points. In Game 5, the other guys for the 76ers torched the Celtics with Maxey scoring 25 points, Grimes scoring 18 points, George scoring 16 points, and VJ Edgecombe scoring 10 points.
Grimes was maybe the biggest back breaker out of all of these players for the 76ers in this game for the Celtics, knocking down 5 threes and giving Philadelphia a reliable person to kick the ball out to. Edgecombe was this player in Game 2 when Boston lost at home when he scored 30 points with 6 three pointers. Boston did not to a great job when it came to closing out to shooters with Philadelphia shooting 15-42 (36%) from three. If the Celtics are going to allow Embiid to get what he wants that’s fine, but they have to make sure the rest of the 76ers roster is kept under wraps.
It feels weird to give any type of critique to Derrick White’s game after he has shown for years to be a complete player and an amazing third option on a championship team. However, his three point shooting in this series is really starting to hurt a lot. When White can’t knock down his open threes it can completely send the Celtics offense to a stand still and make it look uncomfortable when there isn’t another third guy like Payton Pritchard carrying the load offensively.
Derrick White is averaging only 8.2 points while shooting 14-47 (30%) from the field and 7-33 (21%) from three point range in this series so far, including Game 5 where he had another bad shooting night, going 2-8 from the field and 0-4 from three. White in this series has missed so many wide open looks from three and when they aren’t wide open, he has taken some head scratching contested ones. His decision making has not looked great so far and despite having his second worst three point shooting season of his career, I still have a hard time not having faith in him to turn it around.
Derrick White through 5 games in the playoffs so far: 8.2 PPG 14-47 FG (30%) 7-33 3PM (21%)
It's been a tough shooting performance so far from him but I still have faith he can turn it around pic.twitter.com/tX03UYUtRh
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both had pretty okay games when looking at the stat sheet. Brown finished with 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists on 9-23 shooting while Tatum finished with 24 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals on 8-19 shooting from the field and 4-12 shooting from three. However, the fourth quarter was brutal for everyone on the team but the Jays were a big part of it. They combined to score only 2 points on 0-8 shooting from the field and 0-2 shooting from three with 2 turn0vers.
No other play describes the struggles them and the entire team went through than the shot Brown missed at the 5:32 mark of the fourth quarter. Quentin Grimes to his credit played some really great defense on Brown, poking the ball away and making him go into the back court. Grimes continued to swarm Brown in the backcourt but no one on the Celtics came to help him. Brown was then forced to throw up a shot at the end of the shot clock and missed.
Hold up i’m still hot.
This is the representative play of the game in my eyes. Pretty careless with the ball and then *nobody* thought to flash up and help.
Just a collective *sigh* and “welp!” from everyone in a black jersey.
The 76ers put that kind of pressure on the Jays all night long and it led to some tough shooting nights. I don’t think these were the best games Brown and Tatum could have put out there but they were still doing a great job of carrying the load and finding teammates but with Boston shooting 11-39 (28%) from three, it just won’t show up on the boxscore. They have done so much heavy lifting for this Celtics team in this series that I don’t have any real problems with their play overall. I am just hoping for a bounce back Game 6 in Philadelphia to hopefully close the series.
6. Positive Pritchard Performance
Payton Pritchard built off his incredible 32 point Game 4 performance in Game 5, being one of only two Celtics players to finish with a positive +/-. Pritchard had 12 points and 6 assists on 5-10 shooting from the field and was a +8 overall. He only shot 1-5 from three in this game but he made a lot of great plays when it came to attacking the basket and in the midrange.
Via databallr, the Celtics are a +21.4 net rating when Payton Pritchard is on the court along with a 132.3 offensive rating and a 110.9 defensive rating. In only 26 minutes he was able to help the Celtics offense stay afloat but wasn’t a big part of the fourth quarter collapse, only playing 4 minutes in the middle of the drought. There a chance potentially playing Pritchard more in these kind of situations could help the offense when things are going slow. Either way, it’s nice to see Pritchard continue to be a positive, steady force for Boston in the last few games.
7. Queta Finally Got to Play
Neemias Queta despite playing really well when he is on the floor, has not been able to stay on it for most of this series due to foul trouble. He is averaging 4.0 fouls per game in only 18.3 minutes per game through the first four games of this series. Game 5 saw him once again get into foul trouble with 5, but he was able to stay on the court for a lot more minutes, playing in 26 and finishing with 8 points and 14 rebounds on 4-8 shooting. He did a great job finishing at the basket in this game and just being one of the only inside presences the Celtics had.
Queta showed why he can be such a X-factor for the Celtics in the first quarter when he played 9 minutes, scoring 4 points and grabbing 8 rebounds with any fouls. However, his foul trouble came back to bite him in the second quarter when he picked up 3 fouls in only four minutes. He played only 2 minutes in the third quarter where he picked up another foul but was able to get extended time in the fourth, finishing with 10 minutes played, 2 points, and 4 rebounds. If Queta can just find a way to not get into foul trouble, he will really be able thrive for Boston in these playoffs.
8. Vucevic Offensive Contribution
Although the numbers won’t say it, I think Nikola Vucevic has been a really positive contributor to this Celtics team with his scoring punch off the bench. He was shooting 38% from the field and 29% from three before Game 5 but in this game he was pretty solid, finishing with 8 points on 3-6 shooting and 2-5 from three. We even saw a poster dunk from him on Kelly Oubre Jr in the first quarter that got everyone out of their seat.
The defense was not great, especially on Joel Embiid but everyone knew that when the Celtics traded for him. I think he gets a lot of unnecessary slander from some parts of the fan base but when he is on the court he provides the five-out spacing that can make Boston so effective. If he can provide more positive offensive games like he did in this one, he will continue to be a big resource the Celtics use off of the bench in these playoffs.
9. Walsh Intensity On Display
Jordan Walsh has really opened some eyes in this series and it has come with his defense and intensity that he has played with on the court. He has done a solid job when it comes to guarding Tyrese Maxey off the bench and has knocked down the occasional corner three. In Game 5 he finished with only 1 point on 0-2 shooting in 16 minutes but everything else he did felt bigger with 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.
The first steal Walsh got is where I think his intensity showed the best. Off a missed three, Walsh and Embiid fought for the rebound. After Embiid fell and lost the ball, Walsh picked up and battled with Paul George until he eventually got fouled. Walsh proceeded to hype up the crowd who erupted, appreciating the hustle he put on display. This is a glimpse of the intensity that I love to see Walsh play with and I believe he is built for a playoff setting.
10. Rally Towel Theory
Now this final takeaway is a theory that I have concocted that has nothing to do with the basketball playing on the court. However, it has been a big indicator of who has won each game in this series so far. I call it, the Rally Towel Theory.
Before Game 1 in TD Garden, the Celtics put out t-shirts for every fan in the arena and Boston won that game in a 32-point blowout. However, ever since Game 1, in both TD Garden and Xfinity Mobile Arena, they have given the fans rally towels. Now theres a chance if they gave t-shirts to every game it could be too expensive and in the Celtics case people won’t wear them anyway, but the home team that has given out a rally towel now has a record of 0-4. Boston lost Game 2 at home, Philadelphia lost Games 3 and 4 at home, and Boston lost again at home in Game 5 all due to a small piece of cloth.
Does this theory have any direct correlation to any of these games whatsoever? Probably not. Is this cope for me as I try to understand how the Celtics lost 2 games at home? Potentially. However, there is an old saying from a song by Yo Gotti back in 2009 that goes, “women lie, men lie, numbers don’t lie,” and in this case the numbers are saying when you give out a rally towel, you are setting yourself up to lose. We will see in Game 6 if the 76ers give out rally towels or t-shirts but it could be the difference between the series being over or forcing a Game 7.
Rally Towel Theory is Undefeated so far in this Celtics vs 76ers series:
Home team record when giving out t-shirts: 1-0 Home team record when giving out rally towels: 0-4
The St. Louis Cardinals have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the NL Central rivals will play the third of four games at PNC Park on Wednesday, April 29.
My top Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks call for Pittsburgh to crawl back into the series tonight with a high-scoring win.
Who will win Cardinals vs Pirates today: Pirates moneyline (-142)
St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante hits the mound with a 4.26 ERA, 4.91 xFIP and an alarming 18.7% blast-contact rate. Add him sporting negative pitch values on two of his three most frequent offerings, and I’m expecting the Pittsburgh Pirates to rough up the righty.
The Bucs sport a ninth-ranked on-base percentage against right-handed arms for the year, and their 45.2% hard-hit rate (per FanGraphs) is second in baseball during their current 3-5 slide.
I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in at the dish against Pallante for the Pittsburgh lineup.
COVERS INTEL: St. Louis Cardinals rank 26th in bullpen ERA while sporting the second-lowest strikeout percentage in the majors.
Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
The Over 8.5 is my favorite bet in this game because Bucs righty Bubba Chandler has also started the season slowly, and the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at a decent clip at PNC Park.
Chandler checks in with a 4.88 ERA and 5.30 xFIP alongside a below-average 35.0% squared-up contact rate.
So, with St. Louis and Pittsburgh both sporting a league-average 102 wRC+ against righties this season, I expect nine or more runs tonight.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 13-8, +6.29 units
Over/Under bets: 5-6, -1.94 units
Cardinals vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Cardinals +125 | Pirates -145
Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Pirates -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs Pirates trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Pirates.
How to watch Cardinals vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Wednesday, April 29, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
Cardinals.TV, SportsNet-Pittsburgh
Cardinals starting pitcher
Andre Pallante (2-2, 4.26 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Bubba Chandler (1-2, 4.88 ERA)
Cardinals vs Pirates latest injuries
Cardinals vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Detroit Tigers opened up their three-game weekday series against the Atlanta Braves after a disappointing 5-2 loss at Truist Park on Tuesday night. Adding insult to… um, injury, was losing Casey Mize to right groin tightness and Javier Báez to a bum right ankle.
Both will undergo MRIs prior to Wednesday night’s game to assess the extent of their respective injuries.
Speaking of Wednesday, the Motor City Kitties have a chance to even up the series behind their ace lefty, Tarik Skubal, who is once again on pace for another superlative campaign. So far, the 29-year-old hurler has gone at least six innings in five of his starts and allowed just one run in four of them; the two others saw him cough up four, including his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers.
It has been a while since Skubal has seen the Braves, with his last appearance coming in Atlanta on June 19, 2024. He did not fare too well in that matchup, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits (two home runs) while walking two, hitting two and striking out seven over four frames of work in the loss.
The home team will send rookie JR Ritchie, who has just one major league appearance under his belt so far, to the bump to battle the Tigers. The former first-round pick’s ERA to FIP gap certainly raises an eyebrow but his overall peripherals look pretty tidy coming into the matchup.
Take a look at what each starter brings to the table on Wednesday.
Detroit Tigers (15-15) vs. Atlanta Braves (21-9)
Time (ET): 7:15 p.m. Place: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia SB Nation Site:Battery Power Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Game 31: LHP Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.72 ERA) vs. RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.57 ERA)
Back in December, the Columbus Blue Jackets traded Egor Chinakhov to the Pittsburgh Penguins. It was no secret that the 25-year-old winger wanted a change of scenery, and the fresh start in Pittsburgh certainly has benefited him.
In 43 regular-season games with the Penguins following the trade, Chinakhov had 18 goals, 18 assists, and 36 points. With numbers like these, the former Blue Jackets first-round pick has cemented himself as a key part of the Penguins' roster.
However, Chinakhov has gone cold so far during the playoffs for the Penguins.
In five games for the Penguins so far this postseason, Chinakhov has zero points and a minus-4 rating. He has also had zero shots in each of his last two games.
With this, there is no question that Chinakhov will be looking to break the ice for the Penguins in their Game 6 matchup against the Flyers. Given how well he performed for the Penguins following being traded by the Blue Jackets, he certainly has the potential to break out of his slump.
Chinakhov was selected by the Blue Jackets with the 21st overall pick of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. In 204 games over five seasons with the Blue Jackets, he had 37 goals, 40 assists, 77 points, and 195 hits.
Sometimes, it pays to put the numbers down and take a deep historical look at things. Teams fire managers in the season nearly every year, but it is fairly rare to see teams fire their manager before the halfway point in the season. In fact, coming into the season it had only happened six times since 2000. However, the Philadelphia Phillies were the second team this season to fire their manager on Tuesday morning. The Boston Red Sox also fired Alex Cora last week.
This is obviously pertinent since many in Astros nation are calling for the head of Joe Espada. Thoughts usually go back to 2004 when the Astros fired Jimy Williams after the midpoint of the season and Phil Garner led them to the NLCS. However, that one doesn’t count because Williams had made it through the halfway point. We can break these six situations down to see if success should be predicted with a change here in Houston. Obviously, every situation is different, so past results are not a guarantee of future results, but it pays to look at the history of these things.
The Marlins Can Everyone
The Marlins make the list three times since 2000. What we want to do with all of these is look at the record before and after the change to see if there was general improvement. Like I have said many times, our memories often play tricks on us.
2001: John Boles (22-26) Tony Perez (54-60)
Those winning percentages are almost identical. So, at best the move would be ineffectual and Perez did not continue to manage long after taking the job. As you can see, the Marlins did this again just a couple of years later. It would be fair to assert that few teams are run more shoddily than the Marlins.
2003: Jeff Torberg (16-22) Jack McKeon (75-49)
This is obviously probably the historical example people will go back to. The Marlins won the wild card and went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series. This was a veteran laden team that seemingly needed a kick in the pants. They may have turned around on their own. I suppose we will never know.
2011: Edwin Rodriguez (32-39) Jack McKeon (40-50)
So, lightening does not strike twice. The Marlins tried it again with the aging McKeon and the team did not get any better and eventually finished in fourth place in the NL East. When doing a longitudinal study one can look at the aggregate or simply go situation by situation. In two out of the three situations, the team’s fortunes were not improved.
The Phillies Have Done This Before
All that is old is new again. Rob Thomson was the beneficiary of this move in 2022 and that story should seem familiar since that was the team the Astros beat to win their second World Series title. Like with the Marlins, the Phillies were beneficiaries of the wild card as they were not able to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but got hot at the right time.
2022: Joe Giradi (22-29) Rob Thomson (65-46)
An 87 win team usually does not get very far in the playoffs and it is nothing to write home about. The Phillies got hot at the right time to be sure. Was that Thomson? Who the heck knows? Giradi had been a playoff manager with the Yankees and Phillies prior to that, so there is reason to believe he could have righted the ship on his own. Now, the Phillies will try to have lightening strike twice with Don Mattingly.
2025 May Have Started a Trend
Two teams did this last season as well. It is important to note what the objective is. If you fire a manager that early in the year you are trying to turn things around. Maybe you think you have an outside shot at the playoffs or maybe you are so far out of the hunt that you just want to get an earlier look at a managerial candidate.
2025: Bud Black (7-33) Warren Schaeffer (36-86)
I can’t call Schaeffer a failure per se. His winning percentage was better than Bud Black’s because can you really be that much worse a .175 clip over 40 games. They won 43 games, but this is one of the worst teams statistically in baseball history. Schaeffer deserves extra credit for avoiding what the White Sox had achieved before them. However, the further you get away from it, the more it looks like you are just spinning your wheels.
2025: Ron Washington (36-38) Ray Montgomery (36-52)
I’ve never been a Washington fan, but this one was more due to health concerns than anything else. The Angels obviously tabbed Kurt Suzuki this year, so Montgomery was not particularly impressive. This might be the only case where the interim manager performed significantly worse than the initial manager. I suppose at least any team thinking of doing this could hang their hat on that.
Putting It All Together
Simply put, most teams either performed about the same or worse before and after firing their initial manager. The 2003 Marlins and 2022 Phillies were notable exceptions. Obviously, every situation is different and the lab is not a place to recommend moves necessarily. Simply put, if history is our guide then it is more likely than not that any interim manager this year would fare about as well as Joe Espada has. However, I suppose there is always a chance it would work.
Our MLB best bets are scattered across the board today, both in terms of bet types and start times, based on some great prices available at Polymarket.
See why our expert MLB picks for April 29 like the Cubs early, some evening offense at GABP, and the Royals to end the night with a dub.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rockies/Reds YRFI
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
Tomoyuki Sugano has been circled yet again. He continues to run hot, but a matchup against the red-hot Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park is another tough test. He’s coming off a 101-pitch outing — the second-highest total of his MLB career — and could be vulnerable early. The Reds are in position to get to him quickly and cash a YRFI bet that has a fair price around -120. On the other side, Brandon Williamson has also struggled this year and can give it up early, especially with 11 mph winds blowing out.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
The Chicago Cubs are rolling at the dish during their 14-6 heater, with the highest wOBA in baseball and an average of 6.2 runs per game. Facing San Diego Padres righty Matt Waldron shouldn’t be too high a hurdle this afternoon, either: He sports a career 5.19 ERA and 4.53 xFIP across 201 1/3 innings in the majors. I also particularly value the sustainable surface of the Chicago offensive success, with the Cubbies sporting the fifth-highest walk rate and fifth-lowest strikeout percentage during this 20-game stretch.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Royals ML
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
I love the underdog spot for a Kansas City Royals team that’s riding its first wave of momentum of the season with four straight wins. The bats lead MLB in OPS over the past week, putting up 27 runs across their last three games, making it a tough matchup for Luis Severino, who’s been getting hit hard in Sacramento — a carry-over from last season's 6.01 home ERA. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has been steady, with two ERs or fewer in four of five starts, and is backed by a bullpen hitting its best stretch of the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ISLAMORADA, FL - JUNE, 1955: General view of a Tarpon fish jumping out of water circa June, 1955 off the coast of Islamorada, Florida. (Photo by Hy Peskin/Getty Images) (Set Number: X2717) | Getty Images
For Hickory, Aneudis Mejia struck out five in 4.1 scoreless innings, walking one.
Marcos Torres homered twice. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 6 with a homer. Paulino Santana drew a pair of walks. Yolfran Castillo had a double and three walks. Josh Spring had a hit. Daniel Flames had a pair of hits. Esteban Mejia had a pair of hits.
Hub City starter Aidan Curry went 4.1 innings, striking out four, walking five and allowing two runs. Andrew Susac allowed a three run homer in 1.2 IP, striking out one and walking one. Kai Wynyard allowed seven runs in 1.2 IP, including four home runs.
Malcolm Moore had a double and a walk. Maxton Martin had a walk and a stolen base. Paxton Kling had a hit.
Frisco starter Josh Trentadue’s difficult 2026 continued, as he allowed five runs in four innings, walking three and striking out one. Ryan Lobus threw a scoreless inning. Eric Loomis walked two and struck out one in a scorleess inning.
Ian Moller doubled. Keith Jones II had a hit. Dylan Dreiling drew a pair of walks.
For Round Rock, Dane Acker allowed a run in 1.2 IP, striking out three and walking two. Robbie Ahlstrom struck out one in 1.1 scoreless innings. Carter Baumler went 0.2 IP, walking one and striking out one. Ryan Brasier struck out one in 1.1 scoreless innings. Michel Otanez walked two and struck out one in a scoreless inning.
Justin Foscue had a double. Cam Cauley had a pair of hits. Aaron Zavala had a hit.
The Chicago Blackhawks may not be in the playoffs this spring, but many of their former players are currently competing for the Stanley Cup. Yet, two specific former Blackhawks have been among the NHL's top playoff performers early on: Brandon Hagel and Taylor Hall.
Hagel has been on a fantastic run with the Lightning so far, as he has a playoff-leading six goals and has one assist in four games. He has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning's first four games, which included him scoring twice in the Lightning's Game 4 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday.
As for Hall, he was one of the big reasons behind the Carolina Hurricanes sweeping the Ottawa Senators in the first round. Hall turned back the clock in Carolina's series against the Senators, as he had two goals, five assists, and seven points in just four games.
It will now be interesting to see how these two former Blackhawks forwards perform as the playoffs carry on. They have clearly been playing some great hockey early on.
Five former members of the Vancouver Canucks were on the verge of elimination on Tuesday night heading into their respective Game 5 matchups. In a surprising but exciting twist, all five have extended their post-season by at least one extra game.
The first players to successfully evade elimination were Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov of the Boston Bruins, who were down 3-1 in their first-round series against the Buffalo Sabres. They kept it close throughout Tuesday's Game 5 matchup as well, with this game going to overtime after Lindholm tied things up for Boston around halfway through the game. David Pastrňák ultimately scored the overtime winner, keeping the Bruins in the series for at least one more matchup.
Next up on the list of near-elimination saves were Vasily Podkolzin, Jason Dickinson, and Curtis Lazar of the Edmonton Oilers. Their first-round opponent, the Anaheim Ducks, managed to win three-straight to give themselves a 3-1 series lead by Tuesday night. However, the Oilers showed up big-time by defeating the Ducks by a score of 4-1. Podkolzin made his mark in this game by scoring the opening goal for Edmonton.
Lindholm and Zadorov, as well as Podkolzin, Dickinson, and Lazar will now set their sights on winning their respective Game 6 matchups to bring their series' to sudden-death for both teams. The Oilers will play in their next game on Thursday, April 30 at 7:00 pm PT, while the Bruins will play on Friday, May 1 at 4:30 pm PT.
Apr 28, 2026; Buffalo, New York, USA; Boston Bruins center Elias Lindholm (28) celebrates his goal with teammates during the second period against the Buffalo Sabres in game five of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images
Make sure you bookmark THN's Vancouver Canucks site and add us to your favourites on Google News for the latest news, exclusive interviews, breakdowns, and so much more. Also, don't forget to leave a comment at the bottom of the page and engage with other passionate fans through our forum. This article originally appeared on The Hockey News.
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Mar 26, 2026; San Jose, CA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) shoots past Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) in the second half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the West Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that the Dallas Mavericks desperately need guard help. Cooper Flagg was thrusted into the role early, which obviously led to a ton of early struggles. While development was certainly had, playing point is never going to be the way to best optimize the newest rookie of the year.
Because of that, it seems to be most logical that Dallas must use their lottery pick on a guard. However, this draft does offer a couple of interesting scenarios if the Mavericks choose not to do so. There are some very interesting depth pieces in this draft that could be available in the 20 to 25 range. Guys like Christian Anderson (Texas Tech), Bennett Stirtz (Iowa), Ebuka Okorie (Stanford) and Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt) are all mid-to-late first round guards that the Mavericks could very well fall in love with. If that happens, it makes this draft far more intriguing at the top. With that and mind, let’s run through some quick scenarios.
If the Mavericks jump into the top two…
Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Let’s assume the Mavericks stick and pick here, although trading back a couple of spots and recouping some of the draft assets they’ve traded over the years isn’t a bad idea. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson are likely going to be the top two picks, and whichever one the Mavericks would be lucky enough to take will be difference makers. Dybantsa is more of your scoring wing type, while Peterson is an elite combo guard. Regardless of who the selection is here, it doesn’t fill the point guard need for the Mavs. However, there’s simply nobody else you would select here.
If the Mavericks jump to third or fourth…
Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Things get a bit more interesting here, as the two players who are widely expected to go in this range are Duke’s Cam Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson. The talent of those two guys are both overwhelming, but the fit is more murky. Boozer’s athleticism concerns are real, as well as his fit defensively in the NBA. Wilson is an A++ athlete, with the potential to be the best defender in this class. However, his offensive fit would be very clunky, as Wilson will provide very little floor spacing around Flagg, who isn’t a marksman from deep himself.
I could paint a really good argument that Dallas should simply take the guard they like the most at this spot, even though he wouldn’t likely be drafted until fifth at the earliest. If they don’t, the talent is undeniable with Boozer and Wilson that they can easily justify the pick. This spot is a great place to be in, as you’ll either take a fantastic player, or get a nice package to move back from someone who is desperate for their guy.
This scenario is very simple to me. The Mavericks should simply take the best available guard on the board, unless they fall in love with a guy in the twenties. There are five really good guards in this class, with the run likely starting at pick five. At eight, you won’t get your first choice of who you like, but you’ll likely still be picking an elite, five-star prospect.
At nine and ten, the choices get a bit more funky. If they go with a guard, they have to accept that you’re dropping a tier level in talent that would certainly invite forwards into the equation. If you get to that point, I’d be hammering the phone lines to move back in the order. This isn’t a great forward class at the top, but the depth stretches all the way through the lottery and into the teens. If the Mavs choose to go forward early and guard later, getting an extra late lottery or mid-teens pick is a savvy way to go about it.
The verdict
The way I see it, there shouldn’t be a mandate that the Mavericks must take a point guard. Taking the best player available is always a prudent strategy, and if the Mavericks jump or fall to a certain point, taking a guard might not make sense. Because this team isn’t under pressure to win right now, they need to acquire as much top-level talent as possible and try and develop it together. Depending on where that is, it might come from someone other than a guard.
COVERS INTEL: Bello has a 50% usage on his sinker to righties, which favors Vladdy and his .364 average against the pitch.
