Yankees Birthday of the Day: Lyn Lary

If I were to name every championship team from Yankee history and ask you to name some players from that year, any fan worth their salt could probably get at least a couple. The lore of the likes of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and plenty others is large enough that their names echo through even to Yankees’ fans born decades after any of them played.

However, just a couple stars does not a team make. Every Yankee team, successful or no, had players whose names you might only know in passing. Lyn Lary might be one of those names, who was a very solid player who helped the Yankees to the 1932 World Series title.

Lynford Hobart “Lyn” Lary
Born: January 28, 1906 (Armona, CA)
Died: January 9, 1973 (Downey, CA)
Yankee Tenure: 1929-34

Over a century before a 6-foot-7 fella from Linden would first make his mark on the Fresno State baseball team, Lary was born and raised in the Fresno area of California. His family later settled in Long Beach, where he was a multi-sport athlete in high school and planned to attend the University of Southern California. However at the last second, he instead opted to sign with a local semi-pro baseball team.

In 1925, he began his career in organized baseball when he was picked up by the Oakland Oaks of the Pacific Coast League at just 19 years old. Lary had a breakout season two years later, playing shortstop and helping the Oaks win the PCL pennant, as he finished second in league MVP voting. He had caught the eyes of several major league teams, and the Yankees decided to pick up him, as well as middle infield partner Jimmie Reese.

Over in the majors, the Yankees were come off a historically good 1927 season, so they elected to let the pair play another year with the Oaks in 1928. After another good year in the PCL in 1928, the Yankees brought Lary over for 1929. He mostly spent his first MLB season playing second fiddle to future MLB manager Leo Durocher, but Lary showed his potential, with his season grading out at a 113 OPS+ and 2.2 rWAR in only 80 games.

That led to the Yankees trading Durocher to the Reds ahead of 1930 (aided by the Babe’s annoyance with “Leo the Lip”) and letting Lary take the full-time reins at shortstop. Lary’s early career at the position wasn’t the smoothest defensively, but he showed plenty of potential at the plate. That eventually shone through with a career best year in 1931.

Appearing in every game for the Yankees in 1931, Lary hit .280/.376/.416, with 10 home runs (the only season in his career where he cracked double figures) and 107 RBI. He put up 4.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference and 4.7 according to FanGraphs.

The one thing the Yankees hadn’t managed to do in Lary’s career to that point was win the World Series, but he would help them there the following year. The 1932 Yankees are arguably the most underrated team in franchise history, as they went 107-47 and then swept the Cubs in the World Series. Hampered a bit by injuries, Lary only appeared in 91 games and put up a 86 OPS+, although he did win a ring as a member of the team, seeing time at all four infield positions and left field as well.

However, 1932 also ended up being the beginning of the end of his Yankees’ career. Yes, injuries partially limited Lary to 91 games, but so did the emergence of another young shortstop from California. Frankie Crosetti joined the Yankees in 1932, and seized the most of his opportunity, taking the full-time shortstop job from Lary, who — while solid — had never quite lived up to the potential he had shown in his PCL days.

The Yankees held on to Lary in 1933, hoping he could return to 1931 form, but his hitting stats never quite got back. After appearing in just one game at the start of the 1934 season, the Yankees decided to deal Lary to the Red Sox.

Over the rest of his career, Lary played for a variety of team and had some ups, but also some downs. He played through 1940, and performed well enough to get MVP votes in two different seasons (pacing the AL in stolen bases in 1936 with 37 for the St. Louis Browns), but never ended up living up to his full potential. A large part of what doomed him was mental mistakes. As mentioned, his fielding could be a bit sloppy, but miscues didn’t stop there. In one 1931 game, he apparently ran into the dugout instead of touching home on a game-tying, ninth inning home run from Lou Gehrig, leading to Gehrig passing him on the basepaths and instead only being credited with a triple with Lary being ruled out. Neither run scored and the Yankees lost. Lary claimed that the ball had bounced back into play after going over the fence, and he believed the ball had been caught, but that’s still a bad mistake.

Lary was a bit of a character off the field too. Babe Ruth had given him the nickname “Broadway,” and he tried to act accordingly, dressing snappy and driving flashy cars. Amusingly, he married actress Mary Lawlor, who had been in the play “No No Nanette” of Babe Ruth trade and “Curse of the Bambino” fame.

After his playing career, Lary returned to his native California, and passed away from heart failure in 1973.

You might only know the name Lyn Lary from looking at old Yankees’ stats, but as usual, the story goes far deeper than that.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 22, Yujanyer Herrera

22. Yujanyer Herrera (115 points, 15 ballots)

Herrera turned 22 a few months ago, but he has been a professional for over six years, having been signed in August 2019 out of Venezuela by the Brewers for only a $10k bonus. Due to the pandemic, Herrera didn’t throw a pitch in affiliated ball until 2021 and he didn’t come stateside until the next year. Indeed, the 6’3” right-hander was Rule 5 eligible after the 2023 season but not selected. I don’t blame teams, as Herrera truly didn’t pop up on the prospect radar until 2024. He seemed like a strong candidate to be added to the Rockies’ 40-man roster after the 2024 season, but unfortunately he underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2024 and missed the 2025 season.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: NR

High Ballot: 12

Mode Ballot: 25, 26, 28

Future Value: 35+, starter depth

Contract Status: 2024 Trade, Milwaukee Brewers, Rule 5 Draft Eligible, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2027

Herrera began his breakout 2024 back in Low-A Carolina for the third-straight year (though he was still 1.6 years younger than league average), where he quickly showed that he was ready for a new challenge with 17 innings of 2.12 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9 rate ball over four games. A promotion to High-A Wisconsin followed, where he was 3.1 years younger than league average. In 12 games there, Herrera threw 51 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 rate, and 3.0 BB/9 rate.

That was enough for the Rockies to acquire Herrera as part of the Nick Mears trade (along with Bradley Blalock) in July. After the trade, Herrera made six starts with Spokane, throwing 32 23 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.41 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 rate, and 3.0 BB/9 rate. Those were strong results that pointed toward an upper minors placement before his arm injury scuttled those plans.

Here is Herrera being dominant in April 2024 in the Brewers system:

Herrera is currently 18th in the system as a 40 FV player according to MLB.com with a 55 grade on his slider:

The 6-foot-3 right-hander has three pitches in his arsenal that he was just starting to really learn how to use effectively when he went down. He typically throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range and uses his hard above-average slider with bite as his go-to pitch. He misses plenty of bats with the pitch, showing the ability to backfoot lefties with it. He has a changeup, but it’s behind the other two offerings.

Because of that slider, Herrera’s strikeout rate took a nice step forward in 2024 and he uses the two-seam variation of his heater to get a lot of ground-ball outs. He threw a lot more strikes as well last year, but the Rockies will have to wait until 2026 to see if that sticks and if he can refine a third pitch so that he can stick in a rotation.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs was bullish on Herrera at the time of the Mears trade, ranking him as easily the best of the prospects Colorado received at the deadline (11th out of 92) as a 45 FV prospect despite not even ranking him in the Brewers system back in March. The injury caused him to back off that grade somewhat — he ranked Herrera 27th in the system as a 40 FV player last January with a 60 slider grade:

Herrera is listed at 175 pounds but is more like 250. He’s a below-average athlete who has struggled to throw strikes at various points during his career, and he still looks like he has below-average command despite his reasonable walk total from 2024. Herrera’s best pitch is his slider, a tight mid-80s hellraiser with late bite and good length for how hard it is. Still, too many of his sliders back up on him right now. He has a well-demarcated four-seam/two-seam fastball mix, but no cogent third pitch yet. Herrera’s velo keeled off at the very end of the year and he was put on the IL with elbow inflammation in September (he also had a hamstring issue last season); the Rockies left him off the 40-man roster. There’s a little too much development needed here to comfortably project Herrera as a starter, but he should be a fine sinker/slider middle reliever in time.

Herrera represents the kind of pitching prospect the system needs more of and I’m excited to see how he reacts to the challenge of Double-A once he is fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery — at least, that’s where I assume he will be. If his stuff is still there and he does well against upper minors batters, Herrera could be a rotation option for the Rockies soon and will be a no-brainer 40 man roster add this off-season. Due to the uncertainty, I couldn’t rank Herrera higher than a 35+ FV player, 25th on my list, though I love his potential to stick in the rotation and the quality of his slider.


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Mariners News: Carlos Correa, José Altuve, and Aaron Judge

Good morning friends! It’s Wednesday once more, and we’ve got some news and analysis to dig into.

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Is Jarren Duran the best left fielder in baseball?

Good morning! MLB Network is conducting its annual exercise in ranking the best players at each position. Yesterday, they tackled left field, and the top of the list is quite interesting:

Yes, the man that many Red Sox fans have been shipping out the door in imaginary trade scenarios all offseason is, according to MLB Network, the best left fielder in the game. Of course, the reason why so many fans are keen to ship him out is because of the guy that MLB has at number two on the list — not to mention a couple other guys who will end up on the center and right field lists to be published in a few days.

Is Duran really that good and does it still make sense to move him if so?

Talk about what you want, keep imagining trades that aren’t happening, and be good to one another.

MMB Lounge: Trade season then All Star break

The NBA Trade deadline is in about a week and seeing the comment count on the previous lounge thread means it’s time for a new one.

As usual this is your one stop shop for talking about whatever in the world you want to. Potential Maverick topics likely include the usual: trades, tanking, and the various prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Trade front has gotten weird. When Anthony Davis went down with his one millionth injury, the market for rumors cleared right up. I hope that’s a good thing because Dallas needs to move someone, they’re too bad to be this expensive. While I’d love for them to keep Naji Marshall, if they can get a future first for him they simply have to. Daniel Gafford should be movable, but there hasn’t been any chatter about him. It’s all very weird. But a lot can change in a week.

As for tanking or pushing towards the play-in… I think the loss to the Lakers broke the hope. That would’ve made five straight wins. But who knows. If thye win half these games going to All Star maybe they give it another go. But I somewhat wish they wouldn’t because…

The guys in the draft rule. I love watching these guys and hearing people argue about them. The top 5 seems to fun and then the depth at guard looks great. This is a real key for the Mavs future. Who is your guy at the moment?

Snake Bytes 1/28: The Business of Baseball Getting in the Way of the Game

Diamondbacks News

Nolan Arenado to Play for Puerto Rico in WBC
Somehow, I don’t think anyone will have an issue with this particular decision to play.

Examining the Potential Return of Gallen
What does it look like and what would it mean?

Marte, the Diamondbacks, and the Offseason
Has there been a bigger nothing-burger story propping up the offseason rumour mill?

Other MLB News

The Mets are Having a Swell Offseason
While there were a lot of eyebrows raised early in the winter, the Mets are shaping into a serious threat and are starting to resemble a big-money version of the Milwaukee Brewers.

2026 top MLB Prospect Rankings: Superlatives for 101-200
If even remotely accurate, this list does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, though Tommy Troy could change much of that, especially with a bit of help from Kohl Drake and Kayson Cunningham. It shouldn’t take long at all to see if pundits are sleeping on David Hagaman or have him pegged right.

Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa to Miss WBC Due to Insurance Issues
Houston’s Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa were expecting to represent Venezuela and Puerto Rico respectively in the WBC. Neither player was able to land insurance for their 2026 contracts though, so both are being prohibited from participating in the event. Stuff like this is what keeps the WBC from growing in stature faster. Hopefully, this won’t become a widespread problem for the rest of the stars.

Is MLB Parity Possible Without a Salary Cap?
Probably, though it seems highly unlikely as there would need to be too many things restructured. It is certainly the easiest and most straight-forward approach to finding parity of opportunity.

Brazil's Corinthians defeats Gotham FC 1-0 in Women’s Champions Cup semifinal

LONDON (AP) — Corinthians captain Gabi Zanotti scored late as her team beat Gotham FC 1-0 in the semifinals of the inaugural Women’s Champions Cup intercontinental competition on Wednesday.

The 40-year-old Zanotti connected with a cross and shot with her left boot to the right of Gotham’s German international goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger, who got her hands to the ball but couldn’t stop it slipping through in the 82nd minute.

It had been a scrappy game of few clear-cut chances for either team.

Gotham, which qualified for the inaugural FIFA event by winning the first CONCACAF Champions Cup, had pushed hard for the opener in the second half. Jaelin Howell forced Leticia in the Corinthians goal into action, then fired another good chance high and wide.

Gotham made a desperate push for a late equalizer with Berger going up for a free kick deep in stoppage time. Jaedyn Shaw sent it to the right of the post.

Corinthians, the Copa Libertadores champion, awaits the winner between Arsenal and African champion ASFAR of Rabat, Morocco in the second semifinal later.

Both the final and third-place match are to be played Sunday at Arsenal’s stadium.

___

AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer

Spurs vs Rockets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

It’s a “Battle of Texas” as the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets meet for the third time this season.

Both defenses have been particularly stingy as of late, and my Spurs vs. Rockets predictions call for a low-scoring matchup tonight.

Here are my top NBA picks for this Southwest Division showdown on Wednesday, January 28.

Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, with the game airing on ESPN.

Spurs vs Rockets prediction

Spurs vs Rockets best bet: Under 220.5 (-110)

On the season, the Houston Rockets have allowed the fourth-fewest points (110.5), and the San Antonio Spurs have allowed the seventh-fewest (112.4).

Over the last 10 outings, both teams have been even better on the defensive end. The Spurs have surrendered the fifth-fewest points (106.7), and the Rockets have given up the 10th-fewest (109.8). They’ve combined to allow just 216.5 points, four fewer than tonight’s line.

The Spurs are 1-9 to the Under across their last 10 games, and the Houston Rockets are 2-8 in that span. The Spurs are 9-14 to the Under on the road and 4-8 to the Under as the road dog. San Antonio is 18-29 to the Under overall.

The Rockets are 7-11-1 to the Under at home and 7-10-1 as the home favorite. Houston is 21-23 O/U overall. 

The teams have hit the Under in seven of their last 10 head-to-head matchups, including six of seven in Houston. I’ll take the Under in this clash of top-tier defenses.

Spurs vs Rockets same-game parlay

Houston sports the best home record in the Association at 16-3, but the Rockets are just 8-11 ATS at Toyota Center. San Antonio is 14-9 straight up on the road and 11-11-1 ATS, including a 7-5 mark ATS as the road underdog. 

Amen Thompson has taken a step back in the scoring department, but he's been excellent as a rebounder and facilitator. Across his last five games, he's averaged 15.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, hitting the Over on this combo line in each contest. He handed out a career-high 14 assists to go with eight rebounds in Monday's win over Memphis.

Spurs vs Rockets SGP

  • Under 220.5
  • Spurs +2.5
  • Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds + assists

Our "from downtown" SGP: Sengun Stands Tall

Alperen Sengun has grabbed 9+ rebounds in 21 of 37 games overall, including 10 of 15 at home.

Sengun pulled down 13 and nine rebounds in two matchups with the Spurs, and he should be leaned on more in that department with Steven Adams out indefinitely.

Spurs vs Rockets SGP

  • Under 220.5
  • Spurs +2.5
  • Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds + assists
  • Alperen Sengun Over 8.5 rebounds

Spurs vs Rockets odds

  • Spread: Spurs +2.5 (-105) | Rockets -2.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Spurs +125 | Rockets -150
  • Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)

Spurs vs Rockets betting trend to know

San Antonio has hit the moneyline in 17 of its last 30 road games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Rockets.

How to watch Spurs vs Rockets

LocationToyota Center, Houston, TX
DateWednesday, January 28, 2026
Tip-off9:30 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Spurs vs Rockets latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Red Wings Ink Three-Year, $11.55 Million Extension With Ben Chiarot

The Detroit Red Wings are bringing back veteran defenseman Ben Chiarot with a new three-year contract extension carrying an cap hit of $3.85 million per season, keeping him with the organization well into his late 30s. While the deal stretches beyond the typical comfort zone for players his age, the team is clearly betting on more than just what Chiarot brings on the ice.

At 34, Chiarot has been a steady presence in the top four this season, logging heavy minutes and continuing to handle some of the toughest matchups night after night. He’s averaging over 21 minutes of ice time per game and has quietly put together a productive campaign, recording four goals and seven assists for 11 points in 54 games, along with a plus-one rating.

Beyond the numbers, Chiarot’s value has shown up in his partnership with rookie defenseman Axel Sandin-Pellikka. The veteran has taken on a mentoring role, helping guide the young blueliner through the daily grind of being a regular NHL defenseman. Whether it’s positioning, decision-making under pressure, or simply knowing when to simplify the game, Chiarot has been there to steady things and, at times, clean up the inevitable rookie mistakes.

That leadership component appears to be a major factor behind the extension. With a wave of young defensemen pushing their way into the lineup, having a seasoned voice who can still play meaningful minutes is a luxury Detroit may not be taking lightly.

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Chiarot’s play suggests he still has plenty left to give after finishing last season with 13 points, he is on pace to surpass that total this year. He has remained a reliable contributor at both ends of the ice despite his veteran age and has helped the Red Wings maintain a 2.96 goals against per game average as a team, which is tied for 12th-best in the NHL. His physicality, reach, and willingness to block shots continue to anchor the defensive group.

The extension also puts a notable milestone within reach as Chiarot has appeared in 777 NHL games over his career, and if he can stay healthy through the duration of the new deal, the prestigious 1,000-game mark is firmly in sight and is a real possibility.

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Wizards Snap Losing Streak Against Avdija and Trail Blazers

The Wizards ended a nine-game losing streak by beating the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-111, in a chippy and kinda entertaining game, despite being nearly devoid of offensive competence.

Some of the fun was delivered by the return of Deni Avdija, who’s much improved and might be an All-Star this season. He’s been limited a bit lately with a back injury but still flashed what’s made him special for Portland — rocket-propelled transition pushes, physical drives that draw fouls, crafty (yes, crafty!) moves inside to get buckets or trips to the free throw line, and some accurate three-point shooting.

Former Wizards forward Deni Avdija returned to DC with the Portland Trail Blazers.

One thing I’ve liked about Avdija this season was on display last night. Some players seem to drive with a singular purpose. They’re either looking to score, or to get fouled, or to pass. It seems like their end decision is made before they put ball on deck. Avdija seems not to have made up his mind until he gets into the paint and the defense reacts, at which point he’ll try to score or kick to an open teammate. This is a good thing, and it gave his teammates several open looks. They missed a lot of them, but Avdija made some good basketball plays.

The biggest weakness of his game was also on display — six turnovers. For the season, he’s over five turnovers per 100 team possessions, which is high. His overall offensive efficiency is still very good (+5.5 points per 100 possessions relative to league average) and on a career-high 29% usage rate. This is quite good considering the dearth of offensive talent on the Portland roster.

Shaedon Sharpe is probably the best hope for an offensive helper, and he had a good game against Washington. For the season, his offensive efficiency is also nearly nine points per 100 possessions below average. Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday might help — Holiday is finally healthy and playing. Grant has been coming off the bench because of significant limitations in his overall game.

That’s more Trail Blazers stuff than I meant to write given that the Wizards won. They pulled off the victory despite giving up 29 offensive rebounds and an offensive rebounding percentage of 47.5%. Yes, Washington allowed Portland to get back nearly half their missed shots.

Big man Donovan Clingan sent a Trail Blazers franchise record with 13 offensive rebounds.

Washington won because they made threes (17-39, 43.6%) and free throws (18-21), and avoided turnovers (just 13 turnovers in 106 offensive possessions), and Portland didn’t (14-38 on threes, 13-23 from the free throw line, 20 turnovers). Portland shooting their “normal” free throw percentage would have given them 4-5 more points, which could have been interesting.

The Wizards starting group was bolstered by the returns of Khris Middleton and Bilal Coulibaly, and they won the minutes their starters played. Their bench was rough, and gave back most of the advantage the starters earned.

From the Notebook

  • Avdija on brand — drove on the game’s first possession.
  • Coulibaly maybe attempting to establish a brand, attempted a transition dunk on Avdija barely a minute into the game.
  • 10:41 of the first quarter — Coulibaly, Alex Sarr and Middleton did a nice job defending a pick and roll set. Coulibaly chased Avidja over a strong screen and stayed connected. Sarr switched onto Avdija and corralled the drive. Middleton rotated from the “low man” spot to pick up the roller and arrived in time to break up Avdija’s lob attempt. That’s good stuff.
  • Wizards ball and player movement was good in the early going. One example was on a Coulibaly drive. He touched the paint and kicked to Middleton in the corner. Portland closed out well, and Middleton passed it back to Coulibaly. He turned and hit Sarr, who was open at the weakside elbow. Sarr turned down the open midrange shot to drive. He got fouled and turned it into an and-one.
  • A theme throughout was Sarr turning down open threes. In the second half, I jotted, “If Sarr took all the threes Portland was conceding to him, the Wizards would never run halfcourt offense.”
  • 1:51 of the first quarter: Jamir Watkins stripped Avdija’s dribble and got a transition dunk out of it. I like the play, though in fairness, I thought Watkins fouled Avdija multiple times on the play. Wasn’t called though.
  • In the second quarter, Anthony Gill utterly wrecked an offensive possession by turning down a conceded three. Left undefended at the three-point line, he had two good choices — 1) take the shot, or 2) attack the space and force someone to defend him. He chose to stand there and wait for a teammate to come get the ball.
  • Sarr had a career-high 29 field goal attempts, making just 11. He struggled throughout the night against Clingan’s size. It was a marked contrast when Hansen Yang was in the game. Sarr seemed to do a little better shooting over Clingan in the second half.
  • One defensive possession I liked in the second quarter — Tre Johnson directed a Holiday drive to the baseline where Sarr loomed. Sarr’s presence prevented a Holiday layup and cut off easy passes. The result: a Holiday turnover.
  • 3:32 of the second quarter — Avdija hit the turbo button in transition while Kyshawn George jogged back. George was behind the play from that moment on. This should be a teachable moment about what it means to play hard in the NBA. There’s no reason for the guy with the ball to outrun an unencumbered defender.
  • Around 1:42 of the second quarter — this is the push-and-shove portion between Sarr and Clingan. The Portland broadcast showed replays that left Sarr’s umbrage taking inexplicable. The preceding second or two made it clear that Sarr was rightfully torqued at Clingan “boxing out” by throwing an elbow. The two got tangled up a few minutes later. I don’t think they like each other much.
  • Despite taking just two shots in 28 minutes, this was a pretty strong return to action for Coulibaly. He defended well, coming up with 2 blocks and 2 steals and forcing multiple turnovers. He also got some rebounds and produced 6 assists.
  • George shot just 5-16 but still had a very good game — 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks, and just 1 turnover. He committed just two fouls — one of them a semi-intentional “one to give” foul in the game’s final minutes. He went hard for a steal and ended up fouling, which was perfectly fine.
  • Middlton had one of his better games, in part because Portland kept fumbling the ball in his direction (three steals).
  • Sarr had 6 blocks to go with 6 offensive rebounds. He’s gotta get stronger. At one point in the third quarter, he got overwhelmed by Clingan’s size and physicality and did the NBA equivalent of tapping out. To his credit, he came right back and battled the rest of the way. The Wizards will want to add a physical presence to play alongside him in future seasons, I think.
  • Tre Johnson has become a lethal shooter. The Wizards didn’t seem to run as many actions to shake him loose last night as they have in the previous few games. I’d like to see them show more patience in the halfcourt so they can run off-ball actions for him. Too many of the team’s possessions end in stepback threes early in the shot clock. They can get that same shot 5-7 seconds later — after working to get a better shot.
  • The 29-year-old Skal Labissiere — freshly signed to a 10-day contract — made his Wizards debut last night.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSTRAIL BLAZERSWIZARDSLGAVG
eFG%45.0%49.5%54.3%
OREB%47.5%25.9%26.1%
TOV%18.8%12.2%12.8%
FTM/FGA0.1190.1840.210
PACE10699.6
ORTG104108115.5

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Khris Middleton275912724.9%1.724615
Alex Sarr36809935.2%-4.517616
Kyshawn George378111221.1%-0.716919
Bilal Coulibaly28612056.8%3.722019
Tre Johnson327114415.7%3.11674
Will Riley112415115.5%1.3195-10
Malaki Branham2529915.8%1.44404
Anthony Gill6148921.9%-0.864-8
Bub Carrington28627619.3%-4.82-6
Skal Labisseire4809.4%-0.9-70-8
Justin Champagnie18404512.2%-3.4-36-9
Jamir Watkins12274920.7%-3.7-61-16
TRAIL BLAZERSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Shaedon Sharpe357814122.3%4.4197-10
Rayan Rupert194313914.1%1.42911
Donovan Clingan306611624.9%0.2156-17
Toumani Camara337314813.3%3.21132
Deni Avdija31689426.3%-3.950-9
Hansen Yang122611323.9%-0.17511
Jerami Grant24536514.2%-3.8-36-1
Sidy Cissoko153405.6%-2.2-585
Caleb Love17377521.6%-3.2-71-5
Jrue Holiday25556527.0%-7.4-773

Good Morning San Diego: Jake Cronenworth could be key to success for Padres; Yu Darvish is an outlier who fans should appreciate

Jake Cronenworth has been a mainstay in the San Diego Padres organization since 2020 when he came to San Diego in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Cronenworth has proven himself to be a versatile defender who can play multiple positions at a high level. His offense has been an area of inconsistency during his time with the Padres and he has been unable to recreate the success he had at the plate in 2021. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball looks at the value Cronenworth brings to the major league roster and how he can be a key to the team’s success in 2026.

Padres News:

  • Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote a story about Padres pitcher Yu Darvish walking away from baseball and his contract, but the report was deemed premature. Acee himself stated the wording used in the report could have been better. No matter when Darvish decides to call it a career, Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball says fans should appreciate Darvish for the player he has been with the Padres and the man he has shown himself to be.
  • The Padres announced their 2026 promotional schedule and some of the hottest items each year are the bobbleheads. There are nine bobblehead giveaways this year with six regular season ticket items and three theme game ticket items. Gaslamp Ball asked readers which bobblehead would get them to Petco Park.
  • Shaun O’Neill of Padres.com says that if Joe Musgrove can return to the pitcher he was from 2021 to 2024 following Tommy John surgery that kept him out all of 2025, he might be the most important player on the current Padres roster.
  • 2025 was a breakout year for reliever Adrian Morejon. He established himself not only as the top left-hander in the Padres’ bullpen, but he might well be the best left-handed reliever in MLB. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at how Morejon can be more dominant in 2026 in his latest Padres roster review.

Baseball News:

  • New Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado waived his no-trade clause to be shipped from the St. Louis Cardinals to Arizona this offseason. He had the opportunity to change teams in 2024 with a trade to the Houston Astros but blocked the deal with his no-trade clause. Arenado sheds light on what went into his decision making then and now.
  • Aaron Judge will return to the cover of MLB The Show 26 after being the cover athlete in 2018. Judge is just the second player in the game’s history to make the cover more than once.
  • Willi Castro was announced as the latest player to be added to the Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic Team.
  • The trade deadline for the 2026 MLB season has been set for Aug. 3 according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Evaluating the 2026 Red Sox starting pitching with projections

In the dead of winter, when I’m not refreshing MLB Trade Rumors or yelling at Siri to ask if my Jeff Passan Twitter alerts are broken, I like to look at player projections on Fangraphs. Despite the fact that they are a complete fantasy land, they provide a good baseline for our expectations for the upcoming season. Drawing from past performances of players, the various systems weigh more heavily towards the most recent seasons, while also using historical data of career trends of previous players with similar age, experience, and skill level.

Today, we’re kicking off a series that digs into 2026 projections by taking a look at what they say about the Red Sox starting staff. I looked at three systems:

  • Steamer: Created and maintained by Jared Cross, these are always the first projections released, usually not long after the World Series wraps up. They’ve been around for a long time and are widely considered to be among the best systems for projections. 
  • The BAT: Derek Carty’s projection system, which is very popular in fantasy baseball and DFS circles.
  • OOPSY: Created by Jordan Rosenblum over the last couple of years. While I cannot approve of the name of this system, Jordan and I wrote together at a fantasy baseball site called The Dynasty Guru for several years, and he was the first person to try to convince me to trust projection models, so I’m going to give him a pass on the name. 

This comes with the obvious caveat that it still feels likely that there is still a trade to come. Moreever, with so many starting candidates, it’s hard to predict innings totals, so looking at the rate stats is probably a more worthwhile task than playing time at this point. 

1. Garrett Crochet

These may not look like the dominant numbers that you’re expecting from Garrett Crochet in 2026, but it’s important to remember that projection systems rely on “regression,” and try to predict 50th percentile outcomes. If you sort any of these three projection models by ERA, the list goes: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, (big gap), everyone else. Skubal’s projection of 2.63 on OOPSY is the best on any list, even though it’s very likely that the eventual ERA league leader will beat that number. The only pitchers, including relievers, who best Crochet in K-BB% are Skubal, Mason Miller, and Edwin Diaz. Expectations are high and there’s no reason to think that Crochet can’t deliver again, if healthy. 

2. Ranger Suarez

The hope for Suarez is that he will keep his walk rate closer to the past two seasons (6.2%) than in his first six seasons (8.4%, which was still a solid number) as the projections split the difference on that walk percentage. OOPSY is most bearish on the Suarez projection, adding three more home runs allowed than the others. With a 3.38 career ERA, we would hope for an output close to that, but The BAT’s projection of 3.78 is actually 12th-best among AL starting pitchers, and Steamer’s projection of 3.73 is 16th in the AL. That would be the “number two starter” outcome that we were looking for. 

3. Sonny Gray

Slightly ahead of Suarez on Steamer’s list is Sonny Gray, whose 3.68 ERA projection would be 14th in the AL and would round out a strong top three in Boston’s rotation. Those top three pitchers can match up with any team in the American League in a short playoff series, although Seattle’s rotation one-through-five likely has an edge. Gray has a 1.20 WHIP over 13 career seasons, and much like Suarez, his walk rate over the past two seasons (5.4% combined) has been the best of his career.

4. Brayan Bello

Bello’s career K-BB rate of 11.5% is closer to Steamer and OOPSY, where The BAT seems to think that his paltry rate of 9.3% in 2025 is a sign of what’s to come. Bello has started 28+ games in all three of his full seasons in the big leagues, and there is something to be said for that. With a .234 batting average allowed, thanks to a .268 BABIP in 2025, Bello needs to have a strong infield defense behind him to repeat a 3.35 ERA output. Projections expect closer to a .260 BA allowed in 2026, which would bring his ERA back up into the mid-4’s, closer to his xFIP and xERA a year ago. 

The #5 (through #10) Candidates:

A little conditional formatting never hurt anybody. 

When Steamer was released back in November, one of the most eye-opening projections in all of baseball was Connelly Early’s. Perhaps it’s the five pitches that all had a 20% Whiff Rate or better in his four regular-season starts a year ago. There are very few rookies who pop in projections before they’ve had much of a chance to show it on the field. Moreover, The BAT is notoriously harsh on rookie projections, with the great Derek Carty needing to fight off the Twitter prospect trolls on a weekly basis. 

Early’s 16% K-BB, and near-3.50 ERA in both projections, is startling. Of course, thanks to the logjam of pitchers on this team, he’s projected for only 50-60 innings at the moment. That being said, there are only six starting pitchers on The BAT, and seven starting pitchers on Steamer who are projected to have a better ERA than Connelly Early in the American League. I don’t know what to make of this, but as Rick James once said, “Now, THAT is ABSURD.”

OOPSY is more partial to the other starting pitcher who made his debut in the final month of last season, Payton Tolle. Its projected 27.2 K% for Tolle is bested in the American League by only Skubal, Crochet, Cole Ragans, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, and Joe Boyle (arguably a Quad-A guy) among starting pitchers. The BAT didn’t have time for Payton Tolle, apparently, nor Kutter Crawford. 

Johan Oviedo was enough of an attraction for Craig Breslow to move Jhostynxon Garcia, even though Oviedo has just two years of control left. For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oviedo made more starts for the Red Sox in 2026 than both Early and Tolle, and he does have a higher projected innings total than the rest of the bunch. However, the projections are fairly low on Oviedo, with the highest ERA and highest walk rate across all of the candidates. 

Both Kutter Crawford and Kyle Harrison have a decent output on Steamer. Crawford’s 17.6 K-BB% is very impressive, and not all that shocking for someone with a 16.6 career rate, which topped out at 18.8 in 2023. Harrison’s 3.91 ERA with a 16.6% K-BB projection would be more than serviceable. The other systems are not as kind to either of them. 

Lastly, there’s Patrick Sandoval. It should be mentioned daily that Sandoval was signed by the Red Sox to an $18.25 million contract over “two years”. You should mention it daily in your work meetings, if necessary, regardless of your line of work. Would the front office acknowledge that the team has nine better starting pitchers this season and take the L, selling Sandoval for half of his salary to help with payroll flexibility this year? Regardless, Sandoval has not pitched well since 2022 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game since early 2024, so it’s not surprising to see the projections be as low as they are on him, even though he is only 29 years old. The WHIP projections are ugly, but to be fair, OOPSY and Steamer both have Sandoval a shade under 4 in the ERA column. 

The last time that I did this exercise was heading into the 2024 season. After reviewing the hitters in Part One, my concluding sentence was, “Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitching projections and then all collectively vomit into a bucket.” Amazing what a difference two years makes. 

In Part Two we’ll examine the Red Sox lineup. And with the “ZIPS” projections coming out this week, there’s another robot we can be add to the mix!

Canadiens: St-Louis On Big Goaltending Issue

Much has been made of Ottawa Senators’ defenseman Jake Sanderson telling the media after their 6-5 defeat at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens that “Leevi made some good saves, but at the end of the day, you need more than 10 saves to win a game.” On Tuesday, after practice, Martin St-Louis was essentially asked if his job would be easier if the Habs had stability in net, and needless to say, the coach is not a Sanderson kind of guy:

If those things happened, it would be band aids. You know what I mean? And maybe we wouldn’t be paying attention to that, because if you’re focused on results, your process isn't always in the right place. And I’d say that in anything we do, we’re guided by a process rather than the result. So, if goalies are making big saves, it can sometimes hide things. So, when focusing on process, of course, you need saves, but we’re actually looking at what happens before the save is made or not. It doesn’t change what we coach in front of that. So, even if we had stability, as you say, it wouldn’t change the way we’re coaching.
- St-Louis on goaltending stability

That answer shouldn’t have surprised anybody. Just like St-Louis won’t throw his forwards or his defensemen under the bus, he won’t throw his goaltenders either. Any coach would like their goaltenders to make more saves; that goes without saying, but no goaltender would like their coach to say it out loud.

Dobes Wins One For The Canadiens
Canadiens’ Prospect Has Winning Attitude
Canadiens: Avoiding Self-Sabotage

Furthermore, St-Louis once again gave a well-thought-out answer, and he has a point. When coaching his players, a coach will speak to them about the mistakes made, whether or not the puck ended up in the back of their own net; if they don’t, they’re not doing a very thorough job. Whether the puck crosses the goal line or not, a mistake was made before the goaltender was tested, and if the netminder made the save that one time, it doesn’t mean he’ll do it the next time, so it’s the coach’s job to address the issue.

What’s much more worrying, however, is that Samuel Montembeault had to say after the defeat against the Boston Bruins. While he did admit that he could have made the save on Fraser Minten’s backhand, he added that on the goals against the Buffalo Sabres and the other ones against the Bruins, there wasn’t much he could do. That’s not the right attitude to have.

Back in October 2017, when the Canadiens had a bad start to the season, Carey Price had a 2-6-1 record, a 3.60 GAA, and a save percentage of .886, and after a 4-0 loss against the Los Angeles Kings, he said:

I just got to find ways to stop the puck and keep our guys in it until we bury the puck. It just seems that I’m not doing that right now. So, I just got to find a way to do it.
- Carey Price on his struggles in 2017

That’s the right attitude for a goalie to have. Whatever comes your way, you have to find a way to stop it. That’s why there’s a stat called goals saved above expected: a good goaltender will stop shots he’s not expected to save. A goalie who’s doing his job will be able to stop high-danger chances that should have been goals.

In Tuesday night’s 3-2 OT win over the Vegas Golden Knights, Jakub Dobes stopped 32 of the 34 shots he faced, and quite a few of those saves should have been goals. On the penalty kill, the Czech netminder frustrated Vegas with a few saves on one of their set play on the man advantage, the cross-crease pass to a player who’s alone on the doorstep. After the game, he explained:

I was kind of in my flow tracking, and I was feeling good.[…] Mark Stone is really good, around the net, and we had a pre-scout, we knew that they like to make those plays. So, it’s just something that you keep in mind, they probably won’t shoot it from that side of the net, and they’ll probably go back door. So, just a good pre-scout, and I was patient.
- Jakub Dobes on his game-saving stops against Vegas

He could have taken more of the merit, but he didn’t. Knowing a team favours a play is one thing; executing to stop it is quite another. The penalty killers also knew about that play, but Dobes was the only one who was able to neutralize it. None of the skaters was able to cut a pass they knew could be coming.

After the game, St-Louis agreed that Dobes had a great game, but it felt like he didn’t want to praise him too much. He didn’t want to say the Canadiens owed him one because he had made so many saves, it almost felt like he didn’t want to praise one goalie when the other is struggling.

The fact is, however, that Dobes is winning games. He hasn’t lost in regulation in his last seven games. Earlier in the season, when he was hot, the Canadiens kept going back to Montembeault instead of riding the hot hand, and that was a mistake, and one that led to Dobes starting to struggle as well. It’s time to face the elephant in the room; he’s playing better, and he should play more, period. The net should be his to lose by now; the Habs have been patient enough with Montmebeault, and it’s time to respect Dobes’ body of work.


Follow Karine on X @KarineHains Bluesky @karinehains.bsky.social and Threads @karinehains.  

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Playing With Draisaitl Now Could Pay Off For Semanski In Italy

Josh Semanski is in an interesting spot right now. He made his NHL debut against the Ducks earlier this week, already has a roster spot locked in for Team Germany at the Olympics, and for the next few weeks, he's playing for the Edmonton Oilers alongside Leon Draisaitl, who happens to be the best player Germany's ever produced.

The timing works out pretty well.

Semanski's not fighting for an Olympic spot. He's already on the roster. But what he's getting right now is something most international players don't: daily exposure to one of the best players in the world, who'll also be his teammate in Italy. He's seeing how Draisaitl prepares, how he operates, what his expectations are. That's useful information heading into a tournament where chemistry and trust matter.

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Most guys heading to the Olympics come from at least different teams, but even different leagues. They show up at camp with a week or two to figure things out. Semanski's already spending time around Draisaitl, which means when they get to Italy, he'll have a better sense of what to expect from Germany's best player.

"Very, very happy for him. (He's) such a great kid. He's got a great energy about him," Draisaitl said. "I think he's a great hockey player. He understands the game. And the way he plays the game is the right way. If he can continue to chip away at the little things, I think he's got a chance at becoming an NHL player."

That's solid praise from someone who doesn't hand out compliments casually. More importantly, it means Draisaitl's paying attention and recognizes Semanski as someone who can contribute. When they're on the ice together in Italy, that familiarity will help.

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The other benefit? Semanski's getting NHL game experience right before the Olympics. He's playing against some of the same players he'll see in Italy. He's adjusting to NHL speed and physicality in real time. Seven minutes of ice time against the Ducks isn't a ton, but it's more recent NHL experience than most of his German teammates will have heading into the tournament.

Now, let's be clear: Germany's not winning gold. They're not even favorites to medal. The Olympic field is loaded. Canada, the U.S., Sweden, Finland—these teams are stacked. Germany will compete, but expectations should be realistic.

What this is, though, is a useful opportunity for Semanski. He's getting a taste of the best hockey the world has to offer, sharing a locker room with some of the best players out there, and preparing for the biggest tournament of his life in about as ideal a setup as you could ask for. Most depth players heading to the Olympics don't get this kind of preparation.

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Semanski's been productive in Bakersfield—7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points, mostly 5-on-5. He's earned the call-up. But it's the timing that makes it so unique. It's the exact kind of preparation German fans love to see.

That's not going to win Germany a medal, but it's a better situation than showing up cold. When Semanski steps on the ice in Italy, he'll have recent NHL experience, he'll have spent weeks around Draisaitl, and he'll be more prepared than he would've been otherwise.

For a 24-year-old rookie, that's a pretty solid setup. 

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MMBets: Wolves at Mavs: Is Another Dallas Cover Coming?

As winter weather melts away in North Texas, the Mavericks return home to face a Timberwolves squad still figuring out its own identity. Despite injuries and inconsistency, Dallas has shown resilience — often finding ways to compete when it matters most. Tonight offers another chance to test that resolve against a top-tier Western opponent.

Let’s scan the lines in search of value.

🏀 Fixture:
Minnesota Timberwolves (28–19, 13–12 Away)
@ Dallas Mavericks (19–27, 11–12 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕢 7:30 PM CST, Jan 28, 2026
📺 KFAA / MavsTV / NBA League Pass

💰 DraftKings Odds (as of 4:45 AM CST):
Spread: MIN -7.5 (-102) | DAL +7.5 (-118)
Total: O/U 231.5
Moneyline: MIN -285 | DAL +230

🎲 Game Side Pick: DAL +7.5 (-118)

There’s something stubborn in this Mavericks team. Even when outgunned or undermanned, they tend to keep games close. Whether it’s grit, pride, or the unpredictability of youth, Dallas hangs around — not always to win, but often enough to cover.

Minnesota has the edge on paper. Their defense is elite, the shooting’s cleaner, and Anthony Edwards — if cleared — changes the game’s math. But they’ve also coasted through stretches this month, dropping winnable games when intensity dips. If they allow Dallas to dictate tempo or get loose from three, this could be a closer contest than expected.

Flagg and Edwards are both questionable, and the line reflects that. But Dallas catching over a touchdown at home — with some momentum in the rotation and recent wins over playoff-caliber squads — is enough for a lean here. It’s not about belief in dominance. It’s about acknowledging that effort shows up, and sometimes that’s enough.

📈 Prop Play: Caleb Martin Over 5.5 Points (-131)

A quiet, high-floor option with volume trending the right direction. Martin has topped this number in 5 of his last 7 games, averaging 5.5 points in January on 54.2% shooting. With Davis out and Flagg potentially sidelined again, Martin’s midrange game and transition cuts have kept him involved. He’s seeing ~17 minutes per night and isn’t shy about pulling when open.

Against a Minnesota team focused on perimeter containment, there’s room for secondary options like Martin to slip through in the seams. It’s not a flashy bet — but it’s a solid one.