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The Pittsburgh Pirates have been more aggressive than usual in the offseason acquiring veteran players like Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Jose Urquidy. These moves have made a lot of Pirates fans excited for the 2026 season, but how high should the expectations for this team really be ?

The last time the Bucs had a winning record was in 2018 where they went 82-79. They were unable to make the playoffs that year even with the winning record. Since 2018, they have had three seasons with 60 or more wins. Their last three seasons, Pittsburgh has had 76, 76 and 71 wins, with the last two seasons resulting in last place finishes in the National League Central. 

The last time the Pirates made the playoffs was in 2015 where they lost in the wild card round to the Chicago Cubs. They made the playoffs for three straight seasons from 2013-2015, where they won the Wild Card Game against the Cincinnati Reds in 2013. 

Talking about the past gives a good baseline on what a successful season for this team will look like for 2026. The Buccos have the former Cy Young winner in Paul Skenes and a plethora of young talent in the pitching rotation and in the batting lineup. 

When you also look at the NL Central, it looks more open than it has in the past. The St. Louis Cardinals are projected to finish in last place in the division, while I believe the Reds will be on par with the Pirates. The Milwaukee Brewers lost Freddy Peralta who had a CY Young season, and they didn’t really add anyone major in the offseason. 

When you put all of those details into consideration, I think a successful season for the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning around 82 games this year. Last year the Reds got into the playoffs with 83 wins, so if Pittsburgh can get around that win total there is a shot they will be competing in October. 

Winning 80 or more games will show that the Pirates are on an uphill trajectory and are heading into the right direction.Although I don’t even think they need to make the playoffs for this season to be considered successful. With how rough the last couple of seasons have looked, I will take a winning season even if that means that there is another October that the Bucs won’t be playing in.   

I know fans in Pittsburgh are probably getting sick of the losing seasons and not competing in the postseason but I would tell everyone to trust the process. The Pirates have a lot of young potential that even if they can show that they can be competitive in the months of August and September to me that would be a realistic successful season. 

Tell us in the comments what you think qualifies as a successful season for the Pirates.

Hello all, and happy Friday! For those of you who enjoy the Olympics, happy Opening Ceremony day! We’re always fortunate during these Winter Olympics/World Baseball Classic years to have some sporting excitement to carry us to Opening Day.

In the meantime, let’s dig into the happenings from the world of baseball specifically.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners’ trade for Brendan Donovan will join a list of M’s deals made under strange circumstances — Justin Hollander and Jerry Dipoto finalized the move while visiting the Washington state capitol on behalf of the organization.

Around the league…

• In a monumental win for the MLB Players’ Association, left-hander Tarik Skubal was victorious in his historic arbitration case against the Tigers, earning a $32M salary for the 2026 season.
• Michael Baumann at Fangraphs dove into the immediate impact of the ruling for the Tigers and the league as a whole.
• The 2026 World Baseball Classic rosters were announced in full, with 306 MLB-employed players (78 of them MLB All-Stars) participating.
• Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase is being formally accused of rigging pitches in 48 games over the last two seasons.
• The Pirates have agreed to a one-year, $1.5M contract with former Astros right-hander José Urquidy.
• The MLBPA agreed to a deal with a tech company that will allow them to turn players’ likenesses into AI characters that can interact with fans.
• Former big league infielder Jonathan Schoop was among nine people detained at his home in Curaçao during a police search for illegal firearms.
• Jeff Passan and Buster Olney at ESPN outlined the biggest lessons they learned from this offseason.
• Bryan Joiner at Over the Monster took the Red Sox to task for seemingly breaking the law with their use of junk ticketing fees.

As discussed here and here, the Yankees’ bullpen has potential but is still, basically, a work in progress. Between this point and the start of the season, the team is quite likely to add at least one additional impact arm, whether it comes via trade, free agency, or after the spring training cuts have been revealed, à la Ryan Yarbrough last year.

Between a shoulder impingement and surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, talented right-hander Michael Kopech was limited to just 11 innings last year. Still, if he’s healthy, and the Yankees and other squads —like the Giants, linked to the power righty in early December — seem to believe he is, he could be that impact arm for the late innings that supports Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz, Tim Hill, and David Bednar.

2025 Statistics: 14 games, 11 IP, 0-0, 2.45 ERA (174 ERA+), 4.50 FIP, 5.76 xFIP, 22.6% K%, 24.5% BB%, 1.73 WHIP, 0.0 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depths Charts Projections: 44 games, 44 IP, 3-2, 4.37 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 25.3% K%, 12.3% BB%, 1.38 WHIP, 0.0 fWAR

Of course, it’s important to note that Kopech hasn’t been at his best for longer than a year. The last time that happened was when he landed in LA before the 2024 trade deadline. In 24 games and 24 innings in that stretch run with the Dodgers, the 29-year-old put up a brilliant 1.13 ERA with a 2.54 FIP and 29 strikeouts.

His woes started in January 2025, when it was reported he could miss the first month of the season with forearm inflammation. The fact that he was able to pitch just 11 innings last year tells us he was never quite right physically, and it’s impossible to analyze his performance based on such a limited sample. The walks — 13 in the precious few frames he was able to contribute — were particularly alarming.

If the Yankees bring him in, it would be a complete leap of faith on a pitcher who can be dominant when right, but is a near-lock to spend some time on the injured list every year. At this point, however, their bullpen needs upside, and despite the physical woes, Kopech has plenty of it.

To succeed, Kopech relies on that triple-digit fastball with elite run:

The pitch’s 24.4 percent whiff rate last year in the limited sample was already impressive, but if we take his last full campaign, 2024, it missed bats at an incredible 34 percent rate. That’s insane for a fastball. He also throws a slider and a cutter, and even tossed a couple of changeups last year to lefties.

A healthy Kopech would, of course, look excellent in the Yankees’ bullpen, taking care of jams in the seventh or eighth innings. It will all come down to health, though, and the organization convincing itself to pursue the talented but fragile flamethrower. A few days ago, a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Postlinked the Yankees to Kopech, who is still looking for his next home. There’s interest from New York’s side, so something could potentially happen.

When he’s at his best, Kopech definitely belongs in any bullpen, and that includes the Yankees’. At top form, he can locate that incredible fastball in all quadrants of the plate, and that’s the key to his success. After injuries to multiple body parts in the last few months, however, the team that gets him would need to gamble a bit. The Yankees, at this point, might need to gamble on upside and potential if they want to overtake the Toronto Blue Jays and other emerging forces in the American League. And that certainly can include making a run at Kopech to be one of the anchors of their bullpen. God knows the Yanks can use all the swing-and-miss ability they can get.

Yesterday, I released my preseason top 30 Washington Nationals prospects, which you can find here. The driving focus of my rankings was a combination of prospects’ performances so far in their careers, their underlying numbers for those performances, and the tools they have, which could lead to future success. Here are the 3 biggest takeaways from my list that you should know about.

#1: The Nationals’ farm system is the deepest it’s been in a long time

For the last few years, the Nationals’ farm system has had plenty of top-end talent, with names such as Dylan Crews and James Wood, but lacked the depth that rebuilding teams should be accumulating. Thanks in large part to the 2025 draft, where the Nationals selected Eli Willits first overall and acquired even more talent in the later rounds with the savings from the pick, 1-for-1 deals this offseason such as Jose A. Ferrer for Harry Ford and Jake Bennett for Luis Perales, and the big MacKenzie Gore trade this offseason, the Nationals farm system has depth it hasn’t had perhaps ever, with prospects ranked in the 10 to 20 range who could be plus big leaguers one day.

An important part of building depth in the Nats’ farm system is not only acquiring players in trades, but acquiring the right kind of prospects in those deals. Mike DeBartolo and Paul Toboni have done an excellent job acquiring prospects in deals that have the tools required to succeed at the big league level, such as power potential in hitters and strikeout stuff in pitchers.

Pitchers like Griff McGarry and Eriq Swan, who take up spots at the backend of my top 30, are valuable not because they’re excellent now in the minor leagues, but because they have the stuff and projection to be good MLB players one day. Once you have enough of these high-risk type prospects, over time, a few of them will break out and give you great major league talents.

#2: The MacKenzie Gore trade was a shot of adrenaline for the farm system

Speaking of the MacKenzie Gore trade, the deal is unique because not only did the Nats acquire 5 prospects in the deal, but all 5 prospects have tools that make them more than just throw-ins, with all 5 ranking in my top 15 Nats prospects, and 3 within the top 10.

Fien and Fitz-Gerald could wind up as top 100 prospects by the end of 2026, Rosario was a top 10 pitching prospect in the sport before his injury and could wind up being a steal if he returns fully healthy, and Cabrera and Ortiz have the tools to be solid regulars one day. All in all, while the headlines may say the Nats received 0 top 100 prospects in return for Gore’s services, the truth is they received a package with a high chance of producing 2 or more impactful big leaguers one day.

#3: Marconi German is a name to watch in 2026

The prospect in my top 30 Nationals prospects you are least likely to recognize is Marconi German, a 17-year-old, switch-hitting shortstop, and while my ranking may seem rather high for a player who’s only played in the Dominican Summer League in his career, I have complete faith this ranking will be justified once the 2026 season gets underway.

German was one of the best hitters in the DSL in 2025 while also being one of the younger ones, posting a 159 wRC+ and hitting 8 home runs in 53 games. He showed great plate discipline, posting a 1.02 BB/K ratio, and punished pitchers when he got his pitch, with a .513 slugging percentage. He also has great speed, with 33 stolen bases in those 53 games.

German’s first major test will come in 2026 when he heads stateside to play in the complex league. If he continues to hit well there, he’ll likely get a chance in Low A, his first taste of affiliated minor league play. I’m excited to see how German progresses in 2026, as I believe he has the tools to be a very good shortstop or second baseman in the big leagues one day.

The World Baseball Classic (WBC) rosters were announced yesterday on the MLB Network and MLB.com. There is no shortage of talent taking part in this year’s classic led by current and former league MVP’s. But don’t expect just wily veterans to show up because thirty of MLB Pipeline’s top one hundred prospects have made the rosters also and will get the nod in the tournament which runs from March 5-17.

The A’s young arms will be prominent for Chinese Taipei with Top 30 prospects Wei-En Lin (number 19), Tzu-Chen Sha (number 28), and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (number 29) all making the team. The Dominican Republic has two strong arms straight from the team’s 25-man roster Elvis Alvarado and Luis Severino. Other names familiar to A’s fans making international rosters are Denzel Clarke for Team Canada and Darell Hernaiz for team Puerto Rico.

Here’s the full list of A’s players participating in the classic:

ATHLETICS
Elvis Alvarado (Dominican Republic)
Brayan Buelvas (Colombia)
Denzel Clarke (Canada)
Carlos Cortes (Puerto Rico)
Max Durrington (Australia)
James Gonzalez (Panama)
Darell Hernaiz (Puerto Rico)
Wei-En Lin (Chinese Taipei)
Joey Meneses (Mexico)
Luis Severino (Dominican Republic)
Tzu-Chen Sha (Chinese Taipei)
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (Chinese Taipei)

For the first time in the tournament’s history, all four reigning MVP Award and Cy Young Award winners are on rosters. Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Aaron Judge will play for Team USA, and Shohei Ohtani is returning to Team Japan. In all, seventy-eight previous MLB All-Stars will play in the tournament including thirty-six from last year’s game. Twenty-two all-stars will don Team USA’s stars and stripes, the most of any team.

The tournament will begin on March 5 at the Tokyo Dome. The other pools — located at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Daikin Park in Houston; and loanDepot Park in Miami — will begin play on March 6. The finals will once again take place at loanDepot Park, home of the Miami Marlins.

A’s Coverage:

• Solve Today’s A’s Trivia Puzzle
• A’s single game tix on sale now
• A’s Announce 2026 Sacramento Promotional Schedule
• Athletics Sign Jacob Wilson to Extension
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Colome Takes Seventh Spot
• Extensions For Everyone! (Except Kurtz)
• Wilson extension signals shift for A’s ahead of Vegas move
• Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
• De Vries (No. 4 overall) leads Athletics trio on Top 100 Prospects list
• A’s Spring Training Report Date, and everything you need to know
• After monster stats as rookie, Nick Kurtz has a new number in mind: 162
• Projecting Nick Kurtz after Rookie of the Year campaign
• Analysts say this A’s outfielder could follow Pete Crow-Armstrong’s breakout path
• A’s Odds of Reaching the Postseason this year
• A’s prospect Mason Barnett has an atypical arm angle and an old school approach
• Blogfather Sabatoges Own Wins Over Replacement Hip (And A’s Stuff)

MLB News and Interest:

• Tigers, Framber Valdez Agree To Three-Year Deal
• Padres adding veteran bat Andujar on 1-year deal
• Red Sox, Kiner-Falefa agree to 1-year deal
• Eugenio rejoins rising Reds at perfect time: ‘It made it easy for me to be back home’
• Detroit Tigers World Series hero, Tigers great Mickey Lolich dead at 85
• Pirates Reportedly Avoided Andrew McCutchen Talks
• Hall of Fame reveals cap picks for incoming Beltrán, Jones, Kent
• Carlos Santana reportedly signs with the Diamondbacks
• Luis Arraez, Giants Reportedly Agree to Contract in MLB Free Agency
• Shohei Ohtani Won’t Pitch at 2026 World Baseball Classic
• NBA, MLB, NHL, WWE, Major Sports Leagues to Join NFL in Wearing ‘USA 250’ Uniform Patches
• Red Sox Trade Jordan Hicks to White Sox
• Why Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve, More MLB Players Can’t Play in 2026 World Baseball Classic
• Today In Baseball History

Best of X:

Heading into a baseball season, you have to think about depth, even when it’s not particularly pleasant to do so. Take the signing of veteran Dodgers’ catcher Austin Barnes for example. For Austin Barnes to have a meaningful impact on the 2026 season, something has gone wrong for either Luis Torrens or, more problematically, Francisco Alvarez. That might mean injury, ineffectiveness, or some equally unpleasant option, but nobody really wants to see Barnes in Queens in 2026. 

While that may seem unfair, there’s a reason that Barnes was signed to a minor league deal just a few weeks before spring training began. Barnes is 36 years old, playing a position that rarely ages well and is nine seasons past his last meaningfully productive season in the majors. Sure, he’s been essentially league average, give or take, since then, but he’s a glove-first catcher whose playing time has steadily decreased over time. His career slash line of .223/.322/.338 isn’t exactly awe inspiring, but he’s a steady hand behind the dish with veteran experience and still solid defensive metrics who will occasionally turn on one. He’s exactly who every team should have in their back pocket as a third or fourth option. 

The question is if Barnes is still willing, at 36, to play in Syracuse for the bulk of the season with the hopes of getting a shot at some more big league time down the road. If recent evidence is to be believed, the Mets will need a third catcher at some point. In fact, 2025 was the only year since 2016 that the Mets used just three, and not four or five, catchers over the course of a year. So if the goal is more MLB at-bats and another cap/jersey to frame for the den, then have at it, Austin. 

But for a guy whose knees have to be begging for a breather, it would be totally understandable if this was the end of the road for Barnes as a player. For his sake, I hope we see him in Queens at least once this season. For the team’s sake, let’s hope it’s a short stay. 

Good morning, LSB.

Shawn McFarland writes on MacKenzie Gore and whether or not the Rangers can unlock his true aceness.

Evan Grant takes a look at the most pressing issues facing the Rangers as they leave for Arizona.

New Rangers pitcher Cal Quantrill will pitch for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.

Jack Leiter is changing numbers to match his pops.

And finally the Rangers come in at a rather unflattering 19 on FanGraphs’ preseason power rankings.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday!

Last time, we took a look at the outfield and the platoon splits for our various outfield candidates. Today, we will do the same with the infield. I should note a couple of things before we move forward. The first and main thing is that we are looking at career splits for all of these players. Naturally, there are positives and negatives to doing it this way and we should acknowledge those here in the lab. After all, if we fail to acknowledge things that could impact our “experiments” then those experiments become less valid.

The reason why we include career numbers over 2025 numbers is that numbers in general become more valid when we include larger sample sizes. Some players have out of context seasons here and there, but the career numbers will be more relevant when we look at these things. However, some players have out of context numbers overall because they are no longer the player that put up those career numbers. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker are not likely going to put up their career numbers this season.

The key point here is not that the player is expected to meet their career numbers, but in the differences on both sides of the plate. The rate of difference will likely hold. The second thing we should note is that Brice Mathews will not be included in the infield for a couple of reasons. The primary reason is that he does not have the sample size to give us a valid entry. Also, he appears to be on the outside looking in in terms of making the 26 man roster.

So, to remind our viewing audience, we are simply looking at career slash numbers (AVG, OBP, SLG). I will include a fourth category which will be OPS. This is just a quick mental guide to bring in a familiar number to break everything down. When it is all said and done, we will look at a common trade that has been bandied about and why it makes sense for the Astros.

Infield Slash numbers

The important thing to note is that only one of these players is better against right-handed pitchers than lefties. When the Astros face lefties they will have five players with career OPS scores above .800. When they face righties they will have three. This is one of the many reasons why Dana Brown and Joe Espada have talked at length about adding a better left-handed hitter to the roster.

We often look at players’ overall numbers and forget that the aggregate does not represent what we see on a night to night basis. The truth is that tough right-handed pitchers will lock this team down on a number of nights. Baseball philosophers will tell you that the best thing you can do is as a pitcher is disrupt a hitter’s timing. Many things in baseball appear in a mirror image. If the job of pitchers is to disrupt timing then hitters can get pitchers out of rhythm by disrupting their timing.

If you set your team up with the same kind of hitters that all hit from the same side then it is easier for the pitcher to get into a rhythm. If you throw lefties and righties at them with some being selective and some more aggressive then you will force them to adjust to every single hitter that comes up. It is certainly possible to be successful doing that, but most pitchers would tell you that it is much more difficult.

Two players from the Boston Red Sox have been mentioned in potential deals for Isaac Paredes. Paredes is arguably a better player than one of them, but I want you to notice the breakdown of where they are most successful. Trades are often framed in the lens of who gets the better player, but it is really about making your team better.

It should be noted that Duran is a Gold Glove level defender in multiple outfield slots, so he carries some value in addition to his hitting. He would likely cost Paredes and considerable other compensation. Abreu is a more realistic target because it is feasible to see a one for one swap in that instance. Paredes might be the superior hitter overall because he doesn’t disappear against righties like Abreu does against lefties. However, we have to look at how this team is set up.

As it stands, we have five hitters with a career OPS over 800 against lefties and only three against righties. It should be noted that approximately 75 percent of the starters in baseball are right-handed. A theoretical swap would net you a balanced lineup against righties and lefties. Abreu would likely take the place currently occupied by Jesus Sanchez, but when you look at the career numbers you’ll notice he is the more dangerous player against right-handed pitching.

The current advantage of the Astros is that they have a number of players capable of playing more than one position. In reality, Christian Walker is the only player on the roster locked into one spot on the diamond. That affords Espada the opportunity to mix and match based on platoon splits. Both Abreu and Sanchez should not face lefties (whichever one would be in Houston), but there are creative options available to cover them up.

Obviously, time is on our side, so when we get into Spring Training we can look at theoretical lineups against righties and lefties to see how it all stacks up. It will difficult getting everyone at bats, but there is an opportunity to set up lineups that take advantage of these splits. Stay tuned.

The rosters for each of the World Baseball Classic teams were announced, Friday and the San Diego Padres were well represented on several teams. Mason Miller will play for the US, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wandy Peralta for Dominican Republic, Xander Bogaerts for Netherlands, Yuki Matsui for Japan, Ron Marinaccio and Alek Jacob for Italy, Carter Loewen for Canada, Josh Mallitz for Israel and Miguel Cienfuegos for Panama. It is an honor and in some cases a dream for these players to compete for their country, but with so many players leaving during Spring Training to compete in the WBC, there is concern about how productive they can be for the Padres.

Padres News:

• With the bulk of the lawsuit between Sheel Seider and Matt and Bob Seidler being settled, the probability of a new owner in San Diego seems to be growing more possible by the day. A report in The Athleticidentifies potential buyers and adds that the bids for the purchase of the franchise could come by the end of the month.
• Machado has been one of if not the de facto leader of the Padres throughout his tenure in San Diego. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribuneshifts his focus to the All-Star third baseman for his ongoing Padres roster review.
• Sanders also contributed a report on the Padres starting rotation as they prepare to open Spring Training next week. The five top arms have been discussed and dissected throughout the offseason. According to Preller he is still looking to add an arm in free agency,     

Baseball News:

• Detroit Tigers left-hander and back-to-back American League Cy Young Award-winner Tarik Skubal notched a win in arbitration. Skubal will make $32 million in 2026.
• The Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to a trade that sent Blaze Alexander to Baltimore in exchange for a right-handed reliever and a couple minor league prospects.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates and free agent right-hander Jose Urquidy agreed to a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
• The Los Angeles Angels agreed to a one-year, $1.5 million contract with left-handed reliever Brent Suter.