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The month of April is nearing a close, and thanks to the rotating outfield situation at the big league level with the Cincinnati Reds we’ve been privy all month to the offensive force coming out of the AAA Louisville lineup. Rece Hinds got the call to take over RF from Noelvi Marte when the former was mashing so incredibly that the latter’s lack of production simply could not demand more patience.

All Marte has done since his demotion is hit .452/.500/.714 in 46 PA. He might get Hinds’ job back at some point soon, but he already got skipped over for JJ Bleday, who homered as a Red yesterday after hitting an absurd .341/.462/.659 for Louisville in 104 PA before his promotion.

In other words, balls are flying for the Louisville Bats this year, and we’ve seen a lot of the successes their pushed into the spotlight with the Reds. What we’ve not highlighted much here this year, though, is the best of the best offensively from the other levels of the system. So, we’re going to do a bit of that Farmers Only style today!

Chattanooga Lookouts (AA Southern League)

The Lookouts are 16-5 on the season thanks to an offense averaging a rock solid 5.9 runs per game and a league-best pitching staff’s 4.04 ERA. We’ll get to the pitchers some other time, though, as it’s the hitters we’re going to highlight here.

It’s a lineup featuring a trio of former 1st round picks as well as two other ranked prospects, so it should be this productive. Leading the charge, though, is Austin Hendrick, who’s been written off by most everyone due to his struggles with strikeouts. The former 1st rounder was old for being a high school draftee, though, and maybe it’s just taking him a bit more time to find his legs professionally as he’s old (25) for the AA level. Still, he’s hit .307/.373/.480 with 3 dingers so far this season, leading the team so far in hits, homers (tied), ribbies, slugging, and OPS.

Heating up next to him is Cam Collier, who owns a .304/.393/.565 line over the last 7 days to boost his overall season numbers to .263/.344/.475 (.819 OPS). He, too, has a trio of homers and the power looks back after last year’s wrist-induced outage.

Jay Allen II still has no pop, but owns a .355 OBP so far this season with Chattanooga. Carlos Jorge, meanwhile, missed about two weeks of action on the IL but a) is back and b) is hitting .316/.409/.368 in a small 44 PA sample so far.

Dayton Dragons (High-A Midwest League)

We simply cannot talk about the Dayton Dragons withough highlighting their hard-hitting catcher who owns an excellent eye at the plate. That’s right, folks, it’s Ryan McCrystal!

As Alfredo Duno is off to merely an OK start (no pop yet but a 17/20 BB/K and .375 OBP), it’s been his peer at the position, McCrystal, who’s been red hot at the plate. He owns an .888 OPS through 69 PA to lead the team, the former 9th rounder out of East Carolina getting time at both 1B and DH as well as behind the plate.

As for breakout prospects go, it could well be happening (again) for Carlos Sanchez. Ranked #26 in the system by MLB Pipeline, he hit .308/429/.449 (.878) for Class-A Daytona last year in 264 PA before being bumped up to Dayton, and he struggled relatively (.244/.320/.373 in 201 PA) after the promotion. He was just 20 then, is 21 now, and has blasted out of the gate hitting .329/.420/.429 through 81 PA while playing every game at shortstop so far. I don’t care what lens you look at that through, that’s a quality prospect in the making.

Daytona Tortugas (Class-A Florida State League)

The Florida State League (and Daytona’s home park, in particular) has a long-standing reputation as a pitcher’s paradise. So, naturally they’ve got a guy down there who’s hitting the ball with more authority (and results) than anyone in the minors right now.

That’s former 6th round pick Jacob Friend, of course!

Friend, a 23 year old Boston native who played ball at Davidson College, has exploded out of the gate hitting .333/.446/.767 witha 5 homers, 7 doubles, and a pair of triples through just 74 PA. He has just 20 hits all season, and 14 of them have gone for extra-bases. He’s also primarily a catcher, which means that right now Alfredo Duno is being lapped in the lower minors by not one, but two future potential journeymen at the position. Huzzah!

The Tugas are just 6-15 on the season and there aren’t a ton more highlights, but it’s worth a shoutout to Bernard Moon, at least. Redan High School in Stone Mountain, GA has had some pretty notable names come through it, the likes of Wally Joyner, Taj Bradley, Domonic Brown, and a guy by the name of Brandon Phillips who just went into the Reds Hall of Fame this weekend. It also produced Moon, a 2B/OF who has a .794 OPS so far this year that ranks 2nd to Friend in just about every category so far this season.

Because this is a hype piece, we are not going to talk about how badly Tyson Lewis has struggled with Daytona so far. Nope, we just are not going to do it.

The New York Yankees (18-10) open a three-game series with the Texas Rangers (14-14). The New Yankees had an eight-game winning streak end on Sunday with a 7-4 loss to the Houston Astros. The Ranges lost 2-1 to the A’s on Sunday. Starting pitchers are Max Fried for New York, with a 2.40 ERA, and Jack Leiter for Texas, with a 4.97 ERA.

How to watch New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

• Date: Monday, April 27

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET / 5:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX

• TV Channels: Rangers Sports Network, YES

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Odds

• Spread: Texas Rangers +1.5

• Moneyline: Texas Rangers +145 (38.8%) / New York Yankees -180 (61.2%)

• Over/Under: 8.0

Starting pitchers

New York Yankees: Max Fried (3-1, ERA: 2.40, K: 32, WHIP: 0.77)
Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter (1-1, ERA: 4.97, K: 29, WHIP: 1.46)

Weather: 64°F at first pitch

Ballpark: Capacity: 40,000 | Roof: Retractable | Surface: Artificial Turf

After sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis, the Mariners continue their annual early-season cursèd march through the Midwest with a stopoff in Minnesota, the famous not-roof-havers. The Twins are fresh off their own sweeping, at the hands of former Mariner Ben Williamson and the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ve lost five straight and nine of their last ten, as they’re starting to really look like the team PECOTA predicted for under 80 wins.

The Twins are in rebuild mode, so have already brought up (and sent down) a couple of their MLB-ready pitching prospects, one of whom will make the start on Monday against the Mariners: lefty Connor Prielipp, meaning the Mariners will have to pull out their righty-heavy lineup again in the series opener. Offensively, Minnesota brought up contact-monster infielder Luke Keaschall for a couple months last season and he continues on with the team this season, but has dropped off significantly after a torrid start to his MLB career. The Twins’ other top offensive prospects, Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper, remain at Triple-A for now; Jenkins is working back from a hamstring injury, and Culpepper is still gaining experience at the level. The top prospects are close but still a ways away for Minnesota, so the Mariners will see the group that remained after the Twins stripped down the team last trade deadline (especially bullpen-wise), accented by their modest off-season upgrades rather than a full youth movement.

Byron Buxton is the Twins’ leadoff man and the spiritual heart of this team, although he’s slowing down as the perpetually-injured outfielder moves through his early 30s. He’s followed by Trevor Larnach, whose performance has annoyed Twins fans enough that they were trying to trade him to Seattle this off-season. Josh Bell, one of the aforementioned modest off-season upgrades, usually hits third, and those who have long clamored for Josh Bell, Seattle Mariner, will be pleased to know that he continues to be Josh Bell. We stan a consistent king. 

Things get spongy after that, as manager Derek Shelton has tried a few different lineup combinations. Usually one of the Twins’ catchers bats cleanup, usually Ryan Jeffers but switch-hitting Victor Caratini, who can also play first base, can slot in around there too. Then it’s a spin-the-wheel to see what the bottom half of the lineup spits out in what order. Third baseman Royce Lewis will be in there somewhere, along with shortstop Brooks Lee, off to a solid start this year; the outfield is a similar mix of bench players all steadfastly ignoring the “starting jobs this way” sign.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

The Twins promoted Connor Prielipp last week to make his major league debut against the Mets. He completed four innings, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out six. Entering the season, he was ranked as the Twins top pitching prospect and their third overall prospect. A pair of serious elbow injuries — one in college in 2021 and one in the minors in ‘23 — have curtailed his development somewhat, but his raw stuff has continued to look dominant. His best pitch is a superb slider that features tight, downward movement and higher than average velocity. His fastball is fine — it’s the pitch he can command the best at the moment — and his changeup has flashed some promise, though he has trouble with his feel for that offspeed pitch.

Joe Ryan survived the Twins sell off last summer, and with Pablo López sidelined with Tommy John surgery this year, he has become the de facto ace of the pitching staff. His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball. He’s able to generate an extremely flat approach angle with the pitch thanks to a good amount of ride and a really low arm angle. His ongoing issue has been trying to figure out the right mix of secondary pitches to pair with his heater. He’s now throwing three different breaking balls and a splitter to keep batters off his fastball.

The Twins acquired Taj Bradley from the Rays last summer in a deal that has turned out to be somewhat of a coup. Back in 2023, Bradley was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball, but he struggled to harness his impressive raw stuff across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Tampa Bay cut bait on him, and he continued to struggle in Minnesota after the trade, but he’s managed to put everything together this season. The biggest difference for him has been small adjustments to his cutter and splitter to differentiate those pitches from his fastball. His cutter is breaking glove side a little more and his splitter is diving out of the zone more often. With an extremely high arm slot and an arsenal that heavily relies on vertical movement, those small changes have had a huge impact on his results on the mound.

The Big Picture:

We’re still not looking at standings, but if we were, we would point out that the Mariners have firmly stepped on the Angels in climbing out of the cellar of the division while leaving Houston buried in the bottom. The A’s and Rangers just spent a series slugging it out against each other, pushing the Athletics to the top of the division for now, but the Mariners lurk just behind those two teams. The A’s welcome in Kansas City this week, while Texas has to cope with the Yankees team that just spent time beating up on the Astros. The Astros, meanwhile, travel to Baltimore, and the Angels make a similar journey to the Mariners, heading north to take on the Chicago White Sox.

Questions persisted all offseason as to what this 2026 St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation was going to look like. Matthew Liberatore has not quite found his stride early in the season. Dustin May, after 2 shaky starts to begin the year, has found a footing in the rotation over his last 3 appearances. Andre Pallante has been mostly good in his first 5 turns this year, and Kyle Leahy is early in his transition from the bullpen back to a starter’s workload.

On Sunday, we saw Michael McGreevy give the Cardinals another quality start, going 6 IP, the only run he allowed was on a solo shot to Cal Raleigh (it happens), and allowed scant traffic all game long. It was Mcgreevy’s 3rd time posting a QS in 6 games started this season. If McGreevy can maintain a QS% of 50% or higher, that’s going to go a long way towards the Cardinals navigating the 162-game season and a really refreshing source of “Bulk” innings, not a 30-something veteran starter on the back end of their career.

In 31.3 IP now this season, McGreevy has a 3.16 ERA, and his WHIP is down to 0.86, which is good for 6th in the NL. McGreevy has been the quintessential “pitch maker” for the Cardinals this season, living around 91-92 MPH on the FB so far this year. McGreevy has effectively mixed his pitches, featuring at least 5 pitches with more than 10% usage. His Hard-Hit% is only 36.5%, and his average exit velocity against is 87.9, and those are both above-average marks. The other thing that McGreevy is doing superbly is avoiding the free passes. His BB% is under 5% this year, and in the modern game, if you’re not a pitcher who can punch his way out of trouble, then you better not GET yourself into trouble often.

Michael’s Changeup has been a particularly effective pitch for him this season. Opponents are hitting .077 against the cambio and with a .114 wOBA and 25.6 Whiff%. So far in 2026, it rates out as a +4 in Run Value, which puts him in the 98th percentile of all offspeed pitches in baseball. McGreevy’s sinker and Cutter are also positive value pitches for him thus far this year, as well as using the breaking ball as a “strike stealer” early in counts, and can put hitters away with soft contact in play.

We spoke to Eno Sarris on last week’s episode of the podcast, and our wonderful Gabe Simonds asked Eno about Stuff+ and the ability to have outliers, and it is possible for certain players to outperform what they show, and Michael McGreevy would certainly seem to be one of those pitchers who will outpitch a lot of expected predictor type stats.

For the more experienced fans in Cardinal Nation, McGreevy is probably more of a favorite, as he does the things that Cardinals starters of a previous generation did well. He works quickly, throws strikes, gets groundballs, and gives his team a chance to win just about every start he makes. He won’t wow stuff metrics evaluators, but he’ll do enough to be your dad/grandpa’s favorite pitcher on the team.

-Thanks for reading

Every year there’s a prospect who doesn’t make our top 40 list and makes that omission look foolish almost immediately. This year it’s Nolan Perry, who did make Matt’s pref list but whom I have to admit to whiffing on entirely. Perry got $200k in the 12th round back in 2022 out of Carlsbad, New Mexico. He looked promising in the 2023 complex league and in his full season debut in 2024, striking out about 28% of batters he faced but walking too many. As Matt noted in his write-up, he had a tendency to lose his delivery and have meltdown innings, but tended to overpower A ball hitters when things were working. Then he went down with elbow troubles in mid-August which ultimately lead to a Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss 2025 entirely.

Command is usually the last thing to come back after TJ, but having had a full 19 months to recover before returning to game action, Perry appears to have not just gotten back to where he was but taken a step forward. So far in 2026 he’s both landing more pitches in the zone overall (45% vs 41%), but when he works out of the zone placing pitches more deliberately, drawing chases and some called strikes on fastballs up and sliders and curves low. It’s still below average command, probably, but he’s improved the quality and consistency of his location enough to increase the odds that he ultimately sticks as a starter.

Perry’s stuff has also improved. In 2024 he sat 90-93 and occasionally approached 95 with his fastball. Now he’s sitting 93-95 and occasionally cresting 96. He’s further defined the shape of the heater, which in 2024 StatCast classified as a sinker about a third of the time (though the movement profile was similar enough to his four seamer that I think he was just sometimes getting on the side of the latter pitch and sailing it a little). The pitch has above average vertical carry and plus arm side run, which should allow it to play as solid average.

Two distinct breaking balls make up most of the rest of Perry’s pitches. His slider, used just under 30% of the time, varies from 82-87mph. It looks like an average pitch, with pretty typical movement although it could use a little more depth. That’s too much for A ball hitters, who’ve missed a little more than half the time when they swing. He’s located it pretty well, missing down and away when he does miss and mostly avoiding hanging anything out over the heart of the plate. The curve, used 20% of the time, comes in just under 80mph and gets big two-plane break. It’s big enough that batters tend to read it out of his hand and have swung under 30% of the time he throws it (compared to 43% for the slider and 57% for the fastball). They can’t hit it when they do, with 9 whiffs on 16 tries, but he’ll want to get better at dropping it into the bottom third of the zone for strikes to really maximize its effectiveness.

His change-up is rarely used, and only to lefties. It comes in at 86mph with good vertical drop compared to the fastball, and at least as a rare ambush weapon it’s been too much for A ball hitters, who’ve whiffed on three of four swings so far. We’ll have to see whether it remains deceptive against better hitters with a bit more of a book on Perry’s arsenal, but to my eye it has considerably more bite than in 2024 and now flashes some potential.

It’s a pretty smooth looking delivery, with a high leg kick and an average stride, and he looks like he repeats it pretty well. Perry’s listed at 6’2” and 195lbs and still looks fairly lanky, although at 22 there isn’t likely to be a ton more development physically. The steps he’s taken with his command point to continued development as a starter for the forseeable future. He has the repertoire depth to make that work, assuming continued progress on the change-up, with no monster plus pitch but at least three that look like they could be above average consistently with development.

A ball is clearly beneath Perry’s level. His 47% strikeout rate and 2.07 xFIP are both second among pitchers at the level with at least a dozen innings. At 22, even with missed development time, he’s also old for the level. I would expect a move up to Vancouver sometime soon, possibly once the weather improves in the pacific northwest. From there, if he continues to outclass hitters in the Northwest league, a cameo at New Hampshire probably isn’t out of the question. That’s the track that last year’s Dunedin breakout arm, Gage Stanifer, took, although Stanifer had a base of 60 innings in 2024 to build off of and Perry might be under a tighter usage limit.

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Ernie Clement has been raking for the battered Toronto Blue Jays, and with a lefty on the mound for the Boston Red Sox, I expect that trend to continue. 

Find out more in my Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this April 27 matchup.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions

Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Toronto Blue Jays batter Ernie Clement is second in the AL in hits with 36, and is on a 10-game hitting streak — with knocks in 14 of his last 15 games. 

Over that stretch, he’s hitting .359 with 10 extra-base hits. He’s also averaging 2.2 bases per game during this heater. 

He's set to face Boston Red Sox southpaw Ranger Suarez, and the infielder has found great success against lefties over the last two seasons.

Clement has a .320 average this year against them after posting a .900 OPS vs. LHP in 2025. 

COVERS INTEL: Ranger Suarez has allowed four or more runs in three of his five starts this season, while posting a 4.99 xERA that ranks in the 28th percentile.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Suarez is more of a contact pitcher than a strikeout guy, which is great for the disciplined Jays who like to see balls in the zone. 

Additionally, the Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and Suarez ranks in the 15th percentile in that category with just an 18% whiff rate, which ranks in MLB’s 8th percentile.

I’ll also take the Jays to go Over their team total at 3.5 runs tonight. Toronto has exceeded this run total in five of its last six games, while the Red Sox have allowed an average of 4.57 runs per game against them this season. 

Red Sox vs Blue Jays SGP

• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Ranger Suarez Under 3.5 strikeouts
• Blue Jays team total Over 3.5

Red Sox vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+790)

I’ll make this a half-unit wager.

The lefty-on-lefty matchup has to be the reason the price is so juicy for Daulton Varsho at +790, however, the outfielder has fared better at the plate against southpaws this season, posting an .815 OPS against them. 

The matchup is great for him, too, as the lefty Suarez throws his sinker at a 45% rate against left-handed hitters. Varsho owns a .412 average and a .647 slug rate against the sinker with a home run, which was hit off a lefty at that. 

Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Boston +1.5 (-180) | Toronto -1.5 (+155)
• Run line: Boston +115 | Toronto -135
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)

Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend

Ernie Clement is currently riding a 10-game hit streak. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Red Sox vs Blue Jays and game info

Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather

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