KOLKATA, India (AP) — New Zealand opener Finn Allen smashed the fastest-ever century in a T20 World Cup game to help the Kiwis defeat favorite South Africa by nine wickets in the first semifinal on Wednesday.
Allen’s blistering unbeaten 100 off 33 balls featured 10 fours and eight sixes and propelled New Zealand to 173-1 in only 12.5 overs to end South Africa’s hopes of reaching its second successive final.
Allen’s ruthless power-hitting saw the right-hander smash Marco Jansen for 4-4-6-6-4 to reach one of the most memorable hundreds in the tournament’s history and lift New Zealand to only its second final.
West Indies great Chris Gayle had the previous record with his 47-ball hundred against England in the 2016 tournament.
South Africa, which came into the playoffs on the back of seven straight wins in the tournament that included seven-wicket win over the Kiwis in the group stage, had used Jansen’s unbeaten 55 off 30 balls to score 169-8 after Mitchell Santner won the toss and elected to chase at Eden Gardens.
“Just tried to get in good positions and perform for the team,” Allen said. “We wanted to start well and put them on the back foot early. Easy for me when Timmy is going like that … training is really important to get a feel of the wicket. We knew it would be black soil, we had that intel.”
And the chase was all over inside the first six overs when Allen and Tim Seifert (58) raced New Zealand to 84-0. Both batters smashed Jansen for two sixes and three boundaries in left-armer’s first two overs and then Allen rounded off the power play by smashing Corbin Bosch for 22 runs in the sixth over.
The return of Kagiso Rabada and leftarm spinner Keshav Maharaj also couldn’t stem the flow of runs as the pair swelled the opening stand to 117 in only nine overs. Rabada got the consolation wicket of Seifert when he knocked the top of leg stump, but Allen kept coming hard on the bowlers with his amazing power-hitting.
Jansen was punished by Allen and Seifert as the left-armer conceded 53 runs off his 2.5 overs. Bosch gave away 35 of his two overs while Maharaj (0-33) and Lungi Ngidi (0-22) were smashed for 55 runs off their five overs.
“Massive credit to Finn Allen’s knock and Seifert’s knock to kill the game off as early as they did,” South Africa captain Aiden Markram said. “We expected the wicket to play really well, looked really good to the eye. Maybe we had to try and scrape our way to 190 and we’d be in the game.”
Jansen leads South Africa recovery
Left-handed Jansen led the recovery in the second half of the innings after the top-order had slipped to 77-5 in the 11th over against off-spin of Cole McConchie (2-9) and the leftarm spin of Rachin Ravindra (2-29).
Santner was quick to gauge the matchup and his ploy to give McConchie the new ball brought New Zealand two wickets in two balls when Quinton de Kock (10) was caught at mid-on and Ryan Rickelton sliced a catch to point off the first ball he faced from the offspinner.
Markram (18) and David Miller (6) couldn’t capitalize on dropped catch and fell to Ravindra with Daryl Mitchell holding onto the catches of both batters in the outfield.
Jansen and Tristan Stubbs (29) revived the innings with a 73-run stand as Jansen raised his half century with back-to-back sixes against Lockie Ferguson and South Africa accelerated well in the death overs by scoring 68 runs of the last six overs.
“When you see how good South Africa are, to put on a performance like that in a crunch game is pretty pleasing,” Santner said. “I guess today was just about trying to keep pressure on throughout, and when you take wickets consistently it’s a challenge to keep going with the bat.”
New Zealand will take on the winner of Thursday’s semifinal between co-host India and England.
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 25: Clarke Schmidt #36 of the New York Yankees participates in a spring training workout at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 25, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Come Opening Day, the Yankees’ starting rotation will be far from full strength. Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole will both be on the injured list to begin the 2026 campaign, but the Bombers will also be without Clarke Schmidt for a significant stretch to begin the year. The right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent during last July with the newer internal brace procedure.
Whether Schmidt will even be among the top five starters when he is able to return remains to be seen, but nonetheless, the Yankees will be without another valuable arm for much of the campaign. He has missed ample time over the last two seasons, but his performance during that stretch has been the best of his career, so the Yankees would welcome a full return from their 30-year-old starter.
Schmidt debuted for the Yankees back in 2020, and after forgettable cups of coffee in that season and in 2021, the right-hander got his first real look at action the following year. The 2022 season saw him pitch in 29 games, only three of which were starts, but it was a solid body of work — a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 innings. A year later, he was a full-fledged member of that starting rotation, making 32 starts, doing so as an average back half guy, managing a 4.42 FIP in his 159 innings of work.
More recently, Schmidt is coming off of some of his best work, albeit limited due to the elbow injury. In 85.1 innings, the now 30-year-old managed a 2.85 ERA in 2024, the lowest figure or his career. His strikeout rates increased to over 25 percent, and he kept the walks at bay. When on the mound, Schmidt had shown himself to be a fairly dependable, and at times good, Major League starter. Of course, the primary issue was his ability to only stay healthy for 16 starts, though he was active as a member of the playoff rotation en route to the 2024 Fall Classic.
The good times continued in 2025, as Schmidt was nearly as good in 78.1 innings of work last season, although the peripheral numbers were slightly worse. If nothing else, the continuation of that impressive stretch likely convinced the Yankees that he could be a dependable arm every fifth day. But, once again, the injury trouble resurfaced with his aforementioned Tommy John internal brace procedure — the second TJ of his career, following a pre-draft operation in early 2017. He was sidelined in July, and likely won’t be back until the later months of the 2026 campaign.
As far as his ability is concerned, the Yankees should feel fine about Schmidt. He has posted three consecutive seasons of fine-to-very-good pitching, and has even shown flashes of excellent work on the mound. Expectations should be managed, considering the limited sample size and the significant injury, but it is fair to assume that he is a solid big-league pitcher.
The right-hander’s health, however, is the primary concern. Despite the impressive numbers, Schmidt has also posted consecutive seasons in which he basically pitched half of a full-time starter’s role. Between shoulder trouble and the elbow procedure, his health is far from a certainty. The Yankees will be without him for at least the first half of the season, and their first question will certainly be of whether he can stay on the mound for an extended period. Returning from a second Tommy John surgery only adds another hurdle. Schmidt will be familiar with the rehab grind, but one never truly knows how their elbow takes to the procedure until the possible return to game action gets closer and the intensity rises. Although we can be optimistic, the first year back—especially a partial year like this one will be—can be bumpy. A setback or two could potentially nix his 2026 as well. Will Schmidt be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by late summer?
They say you can never have enough pitching, and they say it for good reason. When Schmidt does eventually return, it will be welcomed by a Yankees staff that has several hurlers returning from significant injury. Baseball being baseball, others will likely be on the shelf by then, too. Until then, the Yankees will have to wait on Schmidt’s recovery. The latest updates say that Schmidt could be throwing bullpen sessions soon, and perhaps facing hitters in the coming month or two. Get well soon, pal.
Feb 27, 2026; Jupiter, Florida, USA; New York Mets second baseman Vidal Brujan (2) returns to the dugout against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Meet the Mets
The Mets beat Team Nicaragua 6-3 in an exhibition game before the World Baseball Classic begins. Jonah Tong made the start for the Mets, going 2.2 innings and giving up a run while striking out three. Brooks Raley and Craig Kimbrel also each gave up a run, while the other five pitchers on the Mets side escaped their appearances unscathed. It was an group effort on the offensive side as well, with Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Vidal Bruján, and Chris Cuero each driving in runs, with Bruján driving in two including the game-winning run.
After playing catch on Monday, Francisco Lindor will hopefully be able to take batting practice today, a good sign for his hope to return by Opening Day.
Nolan McLean is on the mend and with Team USA after suffering with some vertigo-like symptoms last week.
Not only is McLean likely to start for Team USA in the March 10 game against Team Italy, but he’s expected to start the final on March 17 (provided Team USA makes it).
Tom Seaver’s 1969 World Series ring sold for a tidy sum at an auction.
St. John’s University honored Shannon Forde, former Mets senior director of media relation until her untimely passing a decade ago, by presenting a jersey to her family.
Edwin Díaz went into more detail about his departure from the Mets, among other things.
Jon Heyman listed eight Mets who could make or break the Mets season.
Around the National League East
Jurickson Profar has tested positive for banned PEDs for the second year in a row and is facing a full 162-game suspension, which would encompass the entire 2026 season.
The MLB Players Association plans to challenge the suspension of Profar by the league.
Baseball Prospectus has published their season preview for the Miami Marlins.
Around Major League Baseball
MLB has compiled a guide to all the teams in each pool at the World Baseball Classic.
VJ Edgecombe is the latest significant addition to the Sixers’ list of sidelined players.
A Sixers official said Wednesday afternoon that an MRI on Edgecombe confirmed the rookie suffered a lumbar contusion during the team’s blowout loss Tuesday night to the Spurs.
Edgecombe will miss the Sixers’ matchup Wednesday vs. the Jazz. He’ll be re-evaluated before the Sixers visit the Hawks on Saturday.
The 20-year-old guard picked up his back injury when he thudded to the floor after being fouled by Carter Bryant on a three-point attempt with 0.2 seconds left in the second quarter. He was officially ruled out at halftime. Backcourt mate Tyrese Maxey went to the Sixers’ locker room to see Edgecombe in the third quarter.
“No one likes getting hurt, but he was the same — smiling, happy,” Maxey said. “We had a good conversation. That’s my little bro. I’m going to check on him; I couldn’t continue the game without checking on him.”
Edgecombe’s played in 57 of the Sixers’ first 61 games and averaged 35.1 minutes. He’s posted 15.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.5 steals per contest during an excellent rookie season.
The 33-28 Sixers will remain without Joel Embiid (strained right oblique), Kelly Oubre Jr. (illness), Paul George (suspension) and Johni Broome (right knee meniscus surgery recovery) against the 18-43 Jazz. Quentin Grimes started in Oubre’s usual spot on Tuesday and Cameron Payne opened the second half instead of Edgecombe.
Utah enters Wednesday on a six-game losing streak and down several key players, including Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler.
VIRGINIA WATER, England (AP) — European players chanted, “Two more years!” when they won the Ryder Cup in New York, and Luke Donald listened. He was named captain on Wednesday for the 2027 matches in Ireland, making him the first captain in 30 years to lead in three straight Ryder Cups.
At stake for Donald is a chance to become the first Ryder Cup captain with three straight victories.
“The last two Ryder Cups have meant a lot to me and my family," Donald said. "I didn’t imagine this third time would come. Celebrating on that Sunday night in New York after a pressure-packed week in a tough environment, I thought maybe my job was done.
“But maybe there is a little more story to tell.”
Donald, a former world No. 1 from England, was never meant to be captain in the first place. He seemingly lost out when Europe chose Henrik Stenson to be captain for the 2023 matches outside Rome. But then Stenson gave up the job when he joined Saudi-backed LIV Golf, and Donald stepped in and hasn't missed a beat.
Donald led Europe to a resounding victory in 2023, and then last September at Bethpage Black led his team to a seven-point lead going into Sunday singles. It held on to win while coping with a hostile New York crowd.
That prompted U.S. captain Keegan Bradley to say, “I think he’s the best European Ryder Cup captain of all time, Luke Donald."
The 2027 matches — the 100th anniversary of the Ryder Cup — will be at Adare Manor in Ireland. Europe has not lost on home soil since 1993.
Donald said he wanted time to soak up the big win at Bethpage Black, and it was only about a month ago that he began to consider whether he wanted the job again and whether to risk what already has been a stellar performance.
“You obviously do question the possibility of losing if you go again,” he said in a video call. "That is always the possibility in sports. You can only give yourself the best opportunity. Winning and losing is not something you can control. You can give yourself an edge and that’s what I hope to do.
“Again, you have those thoughts that, ‘What if this doesn’t go right and we are the first team to lose at home in 34 years?’ Does that taint anything?” he said. “I think there was many more pros than there were cons, and that’s ultimately why I’m sitting here.”
Now it's up to the Americans to decide who will go up against Donald. Tiger Woods again is the top choice to lead Team USA. Woods turned down the job last time, leading to Bradley being appointed just 14 months before the matches.
“Whoever the captain is, it doesn’t really change my role,” Donald said. “My role is to formulate a plan to give our team the best opportunity and what the U.S. are doing is kind of inconsequential to that. I look forward to whoever it is.”
Bernard Gallacher from 1991 through 1995 was the last captain to serve three straight times, winning his last one at Oak Hill.
Donald was seen as an obvious choice for 2027, part of that a product of LIV Golf because of other potential captains — Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell — who are with LIV. Justin Rose had said at the start of the year he was more interested in playing for the 2027 team. Francesco Molinari was viewed as another option.
“History is obviously important to me. As a team, as Ryder Cup Europe, we all play for history," the 48-year-old Donald said. "We talk about it a lot, about the guys who paved the way for us and the responsibility we have to inspire next generations. But I don’t think I have ever thought about history through a personal lens. I just try to enjoy the journey and the day-to-day work to create an environment that gives the players the opportunity for success. That is what I focus on.”
Walter Hagen was a winning captain four times for the Americans, while Ben Hogan led the U.S. team to three victories, though neither was in successive matches and those occurred in an era of U.S. dominance before Europe was part of the Ryder Cup.
Tony Jacklin was European captain three times, and his players left with the gold trophy all three times. The last one in 1989 was a tie, and Europe retained the Ryder Cup as the defending champion. At stake for Donald is the first to win outright three straight times.
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 3: Roki Sasaki #11 of the Los Angeles Dodgers heads to the dugout after being removed during the first inning of the spring training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Goodyear Ballpark on March 3, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a disappointing regular season and a shoulder injury that cost him four months worth of time, Roki Sasaki was the saving grace for the Dodgers bullpen during their most recent title run.
Sasaski was finally able to show flashes of his promising potential that was heavily advertised the offseason prior, and after his brief bullpen stint, he is now set to return to the Dodgers rotation this upcoming season. Just like how his 2025 regular season began, Sasaki has struggled mightily on the mound over his first two starts of the spring.
Sasaki allowed three runs in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, following that up by allowing another four runs against the Cleveland Guardians via a grand slam from Kyle Manzardo on Tuesday. Although the Dodgers were able to salvage both games after the right-hander’s departures, the early results have painted a bleak picture on Sasaki’s outlook ahead of opening day. Despite the struggles, the plan is to keep him in the rotation come the Dodgers opening series on March 26, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com.
“I think it can change. But I don’t think it’s gonna change before we break,” Roberts said. “Building him up, we see him as a starter, and giving him every opportunity for success. But again, we still gotta coach him up, and he’s still gotta continue to get outs and work ahead like Major League starters do.”
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River Ryan later came in relief during Tuesday’s contest against Cleveland, and tossed two scoreless innings while striking out three and allowing zero hits and one walk. Ryan’s stock for making the opening day rotation is rising with every appearance— especially with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone officially ruled out— but Dave Roberts won’t make any hasty decisions too early amidst the competition, per Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com.
“I think right now, where we’re at, I don’t think we need to really talk about a competition as far as the rotation. Once we get to the 21st of March, we’ll have a better idea once we break camp. But I think right now, there’s just too much that can happen.”
Dave Roberts spoke about the team’s top pitching prospect Jackson Ferris, as the left-hander has impressed with 2 2/3 scoreless innings so far this spring, per Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times.
“I like Jackson,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently. “I like the player. He’s a good kid. A lot of talent. I think for me, it’s just trying to harness his arsenal. It’s a good fastball. He needs to continue to get ahead, be able to put hitters away with the secondary pitches, be efficient with his pitches per inning, but I like Jackson.”
The Minnesota Timberwolves still well in the hunt for home court advantage in the playoffs. How did they get there? Their seesaw effort certainly had to do with it. The front office tinkering with some marginal moves had an effect. We asked, and 50 of you responded with who you thought contributed the most. It’s time for…
Canis Pulsus Vol. 47 – Quarterly Report 3
(Note: Canis Pulsus Vol. 47 data was collected through 3/1 through the Denver Nuggets game)
PORTLAND, OREGON – FEBRUARY 24: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center on February 24, 2026 in Portland, Oregon. The Minnesota Timberwolves won 124-121. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Anthony Edwards
A- (34%)
Quarter 1: A- (47.1%) Semester 1: A (40.3%)
The Wolves went 11-9 during their last 20 game stretch and Ant has been a big reason for the 11. However, some of his late game decision making and poor shot selection has certainly contributed to the 9 as well. Edwards continues to do whatever he can to try and push Minnesota into the playoffs, averaging 30.5 points on 48.1% shooting.
The curious case of what planet Julius Randle is on continues. For a small period of time, many had chalked up his underwhelming play due to “Giannis rumors/trade deadline saga,” but we’re well past that now. His 20.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists this quarter doesn’t seem too bad, but the eye test looks way worse than that.
Jaden may have his ups and downs throughout the season, but when he’s up, boy is it up. His last few games have really inspired more confidence among the fan base. Slim has to keep it together and not allow himself to get taken out of games mentally. He is the ultimate X-factor for Minnesota.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 09: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts against the Atlanta Hawks in the third quarter at Target Center on February 09, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Hawks 138-116. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Rudy Gobert
A (28%)
Quarter 1: B+ (35.3%) Semester 1: A (33.3%)
One of the most steadying forces for the Timberwolves this season has been the four, maybe soon-to-be five, time Defensive Player of the Year. It’s cliché, but Rudy’s “floor raising” ability continues to be on full display. I have no doubt if he didn’t have his ongoing battle with flagrant fouls, he would have earned an A+ this quarter.
Full voting results:
Donte DiVincenzo
B+ (36%)
Quarter 1: B (35.3%) Semester 1: B (34.7%)
Donte is peaking just at the right time of the season. His three-point percentage has steadily risen in recent months, reaching a season-best 44.1% from deep in February. Just as important has his been his “intangibles” which really look tangible. He’s always the first to sacrifice his body on both ends of the court. At some point soon, the topic of DiVincenzo’s future in Minnesota will need to be had.
Full voting results:
Naz Reid
B+ (34%)
Quarter 1: B- (35.3%) Semester 1: B (40.8%)
Similar to DiVincenzo, Naz Reid has been getting better as the season progresses. He had a particularly strong stretch in January where he scored 13 points or more in 11 out of 13 games. Naz can still be a liability on the defensive end of the court, but his scoring has been a necessity off the bench.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 20: Ayo Dosunmu #13 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the Dallas Mavericks in the first quarter at Target Center on February 20, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks 122-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Ayo Dosunmu
B+ (28%)
It’s only been eight games, but Ayo has made his presence felt on the roster. He’s immediately settled in as the seventh man after Naz Reid. Minnesota is blessed to have a two-way perimeter player who shoots over 50% from the field while being an above average three-point shooter (38.5%). The 26-year-old is certainly still learning his teammates, but the transition is going smoothly.
Full voting results:
Mike Conley
C (30.6%)
Quarter 1: C (29.4%) Semester 1: C- (23.9%)
Welcome back, Minnesota Mike! Though he hasn’t played much since his return in a Wolves jersey, perhaps a break is all the relationship needed. His days as an important piece of the rotation may be behind him now, but his presence as a trust sideline and locker room voice is still necessary.
Full voting results:
Bones Hyland
B / B- (26.5%)
Quarter 1: Incomplete Semester 1: B+ (30%)
Bones has been a breath of fresh air. On the days that he’s been “on,” he’s a flamethrower who ignites his team into an unstoppable offensive machine. Despite being a one-way player, he still adds value in addition to being a immaculate vibes guy.
Full voting results:
Jaylen Clark
C (22%)
Quarter 1: B+ (21.2%) Semester 1: B- (31.9%)
The downwards spiral of Jaylen Clark this season has been one of the handful of sad storylines for the Wolves. It seemed like it was just yesterday where we were praying for him to hit the 15 minute mark in a game, as it all but guaranteed victory for Minnesota. Nowadays, we’re pleased if he even enters a game during garbage time. He’s a worker though, so I’d expect for him to have a few more meaningful moments this season.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 22: Joan Beringer #19 of the Minnesota Timberwolves walks onto the floor during player introductions prior to the start of the game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Target Center on February 22, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The 76ers defeated the Timberwolves 135-108. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Joan Beringer
B (22%)
Quarter 1: Incomplete Semester 1: B+ (30%)
Joan’s grades were all over the place in this one. Finch doesn’t seem quite ready to unleash the 19-year-old to a steady role, and that may be warranted. He’s a ball of limbs and energy at this point, but sometimes that’s what the team needs. An active, athletic, big body. Hopefully Joan continues to develop at his current rate.
Full voting results:
Terrence Shannon Jr. / Julian Phillips/ Joe Ingles
Incomplete
Coaching staff
B+ (30%)
Quarter 1: B (29.4%) Semester 1: B+ (33.8%)
Chris Finch seems like he’s on his way to winning the “Survived the Most Calls for Firing by a Fan Base” award. Did he bench Julius Randle more? Did he get his team to “play harder” against lower competition? Maybe not. But he has continued to rack up wins.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – FEBRUARY 6: Tim Connelly talks to the media during media availability on February 6, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Front office
A (28.6%)
Quarter 1: B (29.4%) Semester 1: A- (31.9%)
It’s not often a front office turns an old player, destressed high draft pick prospect, and bench fodder into *checks notes* millions in savings, a key bench contributor, a previously important roster piece, bench fodder, and that same old player. Have yourself a season, Tim Connelly.
Full voting results:
Ownership
A / B+ (20% each)
Quarter 1: B (26.5%) Semester 1: A (31.9%)
There’s been some murmurs about Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez cutting some corners to save some money. It’s not clear how true those rumors are, but these things cannot be denied: They rolled out the best jersey rotation perhaps in Wolves history, reintroduced a beloved legend, and has their team on track for another extended postseason run.
Full voting results:
Will the Wolves make the play-in tournament?
No (Earn top 6 seed) (96%)
Quarter 1: No (Earn top 6 seed) (88.2%) Semester 1: No (Earn top 6 seed) (88.7%)
We finally have a lone dissenter who believes the Wolves will miss the play-in tournament due to being a bottom 11 seed!
Full voting results:
Will the Wolves make the playoffs?
Yes (100%)
Quarter 1: Yes (100%) Semester 1: Yes (100%)
That lone dissenter has disappeared again.
Full voting results:
What do you hope the Wolves accomplish during the next quarter of the season the most?
Earn a top three seed.
Quarter 1: Increase effectiveness and consistency of defensive effort Semester 1: Earn homecourt advantage with a top four seed finish
You people are never satisfied are you? 20 games ago, voters asked for the Wolves to get a top four seed. They’ve completed that. Now? Over 17% of voters all called for the Wolves to earn a top three seed. A large portion of voters also mentioned themes of consistency, effort, and maturity. All reasonable asks, I guess.
DENVER, COLORADO – MARCH 1: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates the win against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on March 1, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With a quarter of the regular season over, my feelings on the direction of the Wolves are…
Slightly optimistic (54%)
Preseason: Very optimistic (63.3%) Quarter 1: Slightly optimistic (61.8%) Semester 1: Very optimistic (70.8%)
Guarded optimism seems like the way to go with this team. You never know who you’re going to get every game, yet you kind of do know who you’re getting. When all the chips are on the table at the end of the season, rent will come due.
Full voting results:
Minnesota has hit a season high 3.26 GPA, an increase from their 3.13 a few months ago! You (and their parents) must all be very proud of your pups.
How to rank Steph Curry and Kobe Bryant on the NBA’s pantheon of greatest players is an all-time debate, but at least in terms of the tougher assignment, Iman Shumpert knows his pick.
“When I first got in the league, Kobe,” Shumpert said, when posed the question by Shannon Sharpe on a recent episode of the Club Shay Shay podcast.
How to rank Steph Curry and Kobe Bryant on the NBA’s pantheon of greatest players is an all-time debate Anthony J. Causi
Sharpe asked Shumpert, who debuted in 2011 and played for 10 seasons, to compare the experience defending Bryant, Curry, Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving.
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Shumpert built a career out of being a defensive stopper, known for being able to keep any ball handler in front of him. He acknowledged that “Kyrie’s handle is better.”
But Curry, Shumpert noted, doesn’t need to use his handle, at all.
“Steph was one of the only guys that the moment I slid with him and started a little bit figuring out his handle, it was like, pass, run off two or three screens, push me, and now he’s wide open,” Shumpert said.
“Y’all have never seen Steph’s handle. He got a handle. But the moment he feel like, ‘Oh, you can play defense pretty good,’ he’s gonna take it away from you.”
Curry famously runs more miles than any player in the NBA, zipping around off-ball screens in coach Steve Kerr’s motion system. Shumpert had a front-row seat for one of Curry’s earliest coming-out parties, dropping 54 points in a 2013 loss at Madison Square Garden.
Shumpert built a career out of being a defensive stopper, known for being able to keep any ball handler in front of him. He acknowledged that “Kyrie’s handle is better.” USA TODAY SportsCurry famously runs more miles than any player in the NBA, zipping around off-ball screens in coach Steve Kerr’s motion system Getty Images
Lest he overlook his long-time assist-man and screen-setter, Draymond Green, who he said was responsible for separating his shoulder with one pick in Game 3 of the 2015 NBA finals, when Shumpert was with the Cavaliers.
“You ain’t gonna get through three screens — not if Draymond is the last one. Or the second one, or the first one,” Shumpert said. “I ain’t saying you dirty, Dray, but you the reason my shoulder got separated that first year.”
“[Marte] is a longtime proven right-handed bat in the big leagues,” manager Matt Quatraro said. “He’s had pretty neutral splits over the years. Obviously, his leadership, the teammate that he brings to the table is something that’s been well talked about over the years. He’s clearly somebody who takes a lot of pride in keeping himself ready to play and keeping himself in shape.”
“I value the guys and I feel comfortable,” Marte said in Spanish on Tuesday morning. “For me this will be a new season and [I’m committing] to doing the best I can to help the team. I know and I hope that everything gets better through the difficult times, to work through it and keep moving forward.”
This spring is really the switch-hitting outfielder’s last shot at showing he can be an asset for the Royals, whether that’s with his power or speed or defense, and he’ll have to break through an already crowded outfield. Getting a few more starts — when hitters are more likely to face Major League-caliber pitching — rather than in-game replacement appearances gives him a better opportunity to do that.
“Having the opportunity to have three or four at-bats on a regular basis in starts, not only is that great leading into the season, but just as an opportunity to go out and show what you’re capable of,” Waters said.
They already have Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha, which is a pretty solid starting five. But Zack Littell, Nestor Cortes, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Marcus Stroman are still available as insurance options
There are also plenty of pitchers still on the market that can be used in both roles such as Joey Lucchesi and Max Kranick. The Royals don’t know how long Kolek is going to be out. If he returns quickly, then they should be fine, but a little more depth can’t hurt, especially if he ends up being out for a long time.
Team USA and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. had a lopsided 15-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants in an exhibition tune-up. Witt had multiple hits leading off for a stacked Team USA lineup.
Misner is a Poplar Bluff native. He knows all about the Kansas City Royals and has a little history with the organization. The Royals actually selected him in the 33rd round of the 2016 MLB Draft. It was a difficult choice to turn down the Royals. However, Misner decided to go to school — attending the University of Missouri — on a baseball scholarship. His decision was worth it. Misner was a 2017 Freshman All-American and set career marks during his junior season. It was enough for him to be selected by the Miami Marlins in the first round of the 2019 draft.
The short answer is that if everything goes right, Marte won’t need to feature in the starting lineup too often. The expectation is that he will offer the Royals added roster flexibility to start in place of the starters when needed and to provide rest to keep players fresh throughout the season.
The main area that Marte will be used against is left-handed pitching. The Royals greatly struggled against lefties in 2025. Despite the additions of right-handed Thomas and switch-hitting Collins, the outlook against lefties in 2026 was still not promising. Against lefties, Marte has posted a wRC+ above 100 in four of the last five seasons. Marte could offer relief for Collins or Caglianone in the corner outfield spots against lefties to help with the lineup’s overall production.
Now, two weeks of spring training is hardly enough time to call any signing a home run, however when it comes to lesser-discussed minor league deals, performances like Pérez’s are definitely worth something.
Though it may only be a couple of outings, Pérez has lived up to the Royals low-risk commitment in him, not allowing a single earned run and sporting a 0.73 FIP, 0.75 WHIP and .200 BAA with a 40.0% K-rate.
Again, does this make Pérez an option for Kansas City’s 2026 bullpen? Likely not. However, what it does indicate is that he could be a much needed depth arm in their system, something they lacked last season.
Good morning. There are lots of team WBC previews on MLB dot com. I put several of them here, but if your favorite country isn’t mentioned, check out the official World Baseball Classic page and see if a preview is there.
Feb 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang (2) takes a lead off second in the first inning against the against the Cleveland Guardians at American Family Fields of Phoenix. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Last week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s JR Radcliffe caught up with Baseball Prospectus’ Jonathan Judge to discuss the recent PECOTA projections. Those rankings, which I covered here, somewhat notoriously projected the Brewers for just 80.5 wins (it has since been inched up to 81.1), and Radcliffe wanted to give Judge a chance to explain in a little more detail.
There were a few things that Judge mentioned that I rolled my eyes at, and a few things that did give me pause. I wanted to look into some of the concerns that Judge raised about the Brewers and see whether I thought there was any credence to them.
The Brewers led the league — by far — in errors committed against them
This is true — teams committed 0.69 errors per game against the Brewers in 2025 (though the only source I was able to find on this was something called “teamrankings.com,” so take that for what it’s worth), which is about 12% more than against any other team. The gap of 0.08 errors against per game between the first-place Brewers and second-place Rays was as big as the gap between the Rays and the 10th-place Astros. I’m not sure exactly what that’s worth for the Brewers — Judge says “seven wins” but it’s not clear if he’s saying that casually as an offhand remark or not.
That might be a sign of good fortune on the Brewers’ part, and there’s no real indication that it’s a repeatable skill (the Brewers ranked 14th in the league in 2024 and 18th in 2023). But there might be something to the Brewers forcing a lot of errors — they’re a team full of speedy, aggressive baserunners who put the ball in play (as a team, they were tied with Miami for the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage in the league), and that’s going to put pressure on defenses.
In any case: the Brewers were third in baseball with 806 runs scored in 2025. PECOTA projects them for 699 runs. I don’t think a regression in errors against is going to make up 107 runs.
They don’t have enough slug
Judge also notes that the Brewers’ slugging percentage was “not good.” The Brewers slugged .403 in 2025, which was essentially exactly league average (.404) and 12th in MLB. Judge was perhaps referring to isolated power, which takes batting average out of the equation and looks purely at “power,” in which case the Brewers did considerably worse, and ranked 25th in the league (.145, against a league average of .159, or about 8% worse than average).
But the Brewer offense was hardly bad even by more advanced measures: by OPS+, they ranked 11th with 105 (5% better than league average), and they were even better via FanGraphs’ wRC+ measure (107, ninth in the league). We’ve already established that they scored a bunch of runs. Yes, the Brewers of 2025 didn’t hit a ton of homers (166, 22nd in the league), but they were able to make up for that in a variety of ways.
This is still a topic of conversation for the Brewers, and the question of where the slug comes from is a persistent one. But the Brewers might very well take a step forward in this area in 2026 anyway: yes, their leading home run hitter from 2025, Christian Yelich, will be a year older. But they’ll have a full season of the Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers platoon — their combined home run pace on a per-600 PA basis as Brewers was just over 20, but I’m optimistic they’ll outperform that — and we’re all waiting on a jump in power from Jackson Chourio. There are other places on the roster that could very plausibly outslug what the Brewers got in 2025, too: Gary Sánchez is gonna hit a few dingers, Brice Turang could see a jump if his late-season power surge lasts for closer to a full season, William Contreras could jump back to 2024 levels (he hit six more in 2024 than 2025), Luis Rengifo could get back to being the 16-17 homer guy he once was.
But we have a proven track record of the Brewers being able to score runs without the benefit of huge homer numbers, and I just don’t see a big reason to think that’s going to dramatically change in 2026. Maybe this isn’t the third-best offense in the league, but I don’t see them suddenly scoring 13% fewer runs.
Certain players without long track records are unlikely to repeat 2025 success
Two specific players who came up in this category were Turang and Quinn Priester. Both players struggled to varying degrees in their first two big-league seasons and then found success last year with Milwaukee.
Judge, in line with projection systems, is a bit skeptical of that success. To understand why, it’s important to understand how these projection systems tend to work: they typically look at three years of results and base the following season on how the previous three went, with allowances for aging arcs. That gives a larger sample.
Turang was quite bad in 2023, and as Judge says, “there’s simply no way a projection system is going to forget that.” Later, when talking about Priester, Judge explains that one could just look at last season with the Brewers, in which he was good, and ignore the previous two years, but “we just don’t do that because that’s a bet you’re just not going to win most of the time.”
Here’s the thing about Turang and Priester, though. Both were first-round picks. Both were once top 100 prospects. Both are young — Priester turned 25 in September, and Turang turned 26 in November. They are in the period of their careers where you would expect them to improve every year, and they were both expected to be good players based on where they were drafted and rated as prospects.
Yes, both players struggled upon reaching the majors, and that “record” still exists for the projection systems. But both players improved rather dramatically, and especially in Turang’s case, in a fashion that seems to follow a pretty logical, if steep, arc. PECOTA projects Turang to be worth just 1.8 WAR in 2026. By Baseball Reference’s WAR, Turang had 1.5 WAR even when he was a brutally bad offensive player in 2023; he outperformed 1.8 WAR by 260% in 2024 and by 310% in 2025. Even if you use FanGraphs’ lower numbers, Turang had 2.6 WAR in 2024 and 4.4 in 2025.
If Turang earns only 1.8 WAR in 2026, it would be massively disappointing. He’s still pre-prime in terms of age, so it’s reasonable to hope that players will continue to improve each year. The other thing about Turang, though, is qualitative: anyone who watched him regularly the last few seasons and in spring training this year can see that he is not remotely the same hitter he was in 2023.
Priester, perhaps, has more reason for concern — he significantly outperformed his FIP last season (3.32 ERA to 4.01 FIP) and there’s not much in his Statcast profile to suggest that he should be one of the best pitchers in the National League, which he was for much of 2025, at least in terms of results. But there’s also not much in that Statcast profile to suggest that he’s not, at least, a pretty solid starter. And the Brewers have clearly been strategic in acquiring groundball pitchers while they put out one of the best defensive middle infields in the league, and Priester’s groundball bona fides are legitimate.
Putting players in situations that are tailored to their strengths and set them up for success might not give a “fair” reflection of that player’s true ability, but it’s also just… smart. Sure, if Priester were pitching for a bad defensive team, he probably wouldn’t be nearly as valuable. But he’s not, so he will have value.
Conclusions
I am not by any means saying that Judge and PECOTA have no idea what they’re talking about. But for the third straight year, projection systems are down on the Brewers, and they’ll have a good chance of outperforming those projections, perhaps dramatically so. The last two years, Milwaukee caught everyone off guard, but now this is becoming a trend, and if the projections are wrong again, then there’s clearly an issue with the process.
This might be making some of the people behind those projection systems a little bit defensive, perhaps understandably so. But they should also understand that when those systems vastly underrated the Brewers in 2024 and 2025, fans are going to be up in arms when they appear to again be vastly underrating the Brewers in 2026.
Maybe the Brewers take a significant step back in 2026. I don’t really expect them to finish with the best record in the league again. But each of the last two years, I looked at the NL Central and thought the Brewers had the best chance at winning it, and both seasons I was right. I’d like to think I’m a fairly rational fan, and if I thought there was a team to take the mantle from the Brewers, I’d admit it. Maybe the Cubs do that this year. They have a talented team with a track record, which is why they outperform the Brewers in projections.
But I also think it’s just as likely that the team that won 97 games with a team filled with pre-prime players and seems to have creatively replaced the production it lost via Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin, and Isaac Collins is still going to be a darn good team in 2026. Excuse me for thinking so.
Mike Elias made a couple of unexpected trades this offseason. One was the trade for Shane Baz, a 26-year-old starting pitcher who has shown promise but mixed results in his Major League career. The Orioles sent three young prospects, including two first-round picks, to the Rays in exchange for Baz. The Rays also received a competitive balance draft pick in the deal. It was a big haul for the Rays, but the Orioles got back a pitcher who has three years before free agency.
After an injury-shortened but successful 2024 season, Baz struggled in 2025 with a 4.87 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays. For those looking for a silver lining in that high ERA, Baz had a respectable 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts to go along with an atrocious 5.90 home ERA. The Rays played their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees. That park is not suitable for regular Major League baseball, but the Rays were forced there after Hurricane Milton destroyed the roof on Tropicana Field.
Baz allowed 26 home runs last year, 18 of which came at Steinbrenner Field. His BABIP at home was .323 vs .283 on the road. Meanwhile, his walk rate and strikeout rate were quite similar regardless of where he pitched. After the trade, Mike Elias raved about Baz, saying, “He’s got great underlying metrics, five plus pitches. I think he’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete, and I think he hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter.”
So what do you think will happen? Will Baz rise above his poor Steinbrenner Field numbers to help the Orioles improve in 2026? Or was Mike Elias a chump to send so many prospects to to the Rays in exchange for a 4.87 ERA pitcher? Here are Baz’s projections from ZiPS and Baseball Reference:
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 27: Ezequiel Tovar #14 of the Colorado Rockies follows through on a swing against the San Diego Padres during a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 27, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
One of the biggest problems for the 2025 Colorado Rockies was hitting the fastball. It was such a problem that I wrote a piece in early May — which included a photo edit I’m rather proud of — highlighting the issue for the team after just a month into the season.
That was when the Rockies ranked near the bottom in most offensive counting stats and metrics against fastballs. Most things remained the same, but they did improve to the median in terms of batting average and total hits by the end of the season. The extremes still existed as they finished with the third-highest strikeout rate (20.5%), fourth-highest whiff rate (21.6%), third-fewest home runs (82), and the fourth-fewest balls in play.
In short, the team struggled mightily against fastballs and couldn’t generate much meaningful offense against them.
Fully aware of their problems, the Rockies’ new front office and coaching staff, including new hitting coach Brett Pill, have the task of helping the team cut down on the swings-and-misses and become a more productive lineup across the board. It stands to reason that the team is working to catch up on the fastball to mitigate some of the issues they were having, and the early spring training returns are promising.
Entering Tuesday, the Rockies’ offense has shown improvement and ranks among the more productive teams in spring training with promising gains in strikeout and walk numbers.
So, how are they doing with the fastball at this point in camp?
Thankfully, Baseball Savant has provided insight via Statcast for our search today.
For this investigation, fastballs include four-seams, two-seam/sinkers, and cutters. So, unless specifically identified, the numbers will involve how the Rockies are doing against all forms of the fastball.
A simple indicator of success will always be batting average, and the Rockies aren’t doing too shabbily a few weeks into camp. Sporting a .290 AVG, the club ranks ninth in all of baseball, right in line with the Seattle Mariners (.291) and the Boston Red Sox (.292). They are still well behind the San Francisco Giants, who sit at a dazzling .364 AVG on fastballs.
What’s interesting is that the Rockies have seen far fewer fastballs than the majority of the top 10 teams in batting average. At this point in spring training, the league average of fastballs hitters have seen is 57.4%. The Rockies have seen 55%, which ranks near the bottom of baseball despite seeing the ninth-most total pitches. An influx of breaking balls early in camp is to be expected as pitchers try to dial things in and experiment with new pitches, but the work the team has been able to do against fastballs is promising.
Making contact is priority number one to cut down on whiff rate, and the Rockies are making steady progress. At 18.4%, the Rockies have the fourth-lowest whiff rate against fastballs in baseball, with a 16.7% strikeout rate, which sits just below league average.
Fastballs in General
In the brief sample size, it’s clear the Rockies are putting into practice what they are preaching about improving control of the zone and taking advantage of the fastball. While coaching certainly plays a major part in the growth, personnel also have their role.
The Rockies made it a point this offseason to bring in players with improved plate discipline and contact abilities. Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have proven capable in their careers at making contact, particularly against the fastball. At his best in 2023, Edouard Julien was a menace against fastballs, and rookie hopeful T.J. Rumfield made a career in the minors with elite plate discipline and contact skills.
Check out this chart of players who have seen at least 50 pitches, sorted by batting average, and how the Rockies are doing individually against fastballs.
It’s promising to see young prospects like Cole Carrigg and Charlie Condon top the list, but the players who are seeing a good bit of action are finding success against fastballs. If you expand the search to include everyone, Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, Kyle Karros and Willi Castro make appearances with high batting averages in the .400 range.
Additionally, limiting the whiff rate to a sub-20% for the majority of players would go a long way to improving the Rockies’ offense throughout the system. Even more important is limiting strikeouts on fastballs, especially as camp progresses and both pitchers and hitters get up to game speed for the regular season.
There will always be concerns for players like Jordan Beck, who have the possibility of a power stroke, which would mean more strikeouts, but he is an example of a player who has to dial in on fastballs and make sure he isn’t missing opportunities against them.
Four-Seam Fastballs
What about the most fundamental pitch, the four-seam fastball?
Well, the Rockies are proving quite capable against the four-seam fastball with a .321 AVG, ranking fourth in all of baseball. Their .590 SLG also ranks third in the league, and the 17.9% whiff is the second lowest. A team 14.5% strikeout rate also ranks as the third-lowest in baseball.
As a whole, 15 players are batting over .300 against four-seam fastballs, albeit in limited sample sizes. The whiff rates are elevated, but it’s worth noting that on both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, the team is hitting the ball hard when they do make contact. They are at a 50% hard-hit rate against both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, both of which rank near the top in baseball.
The high slugging is also encouraging to see and will be most beneficial come the regular season. A pitcher is most likely to throw a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat, and if Rockies hitters can put competitive swings on on that first pitch, it could set a tone for the offense. The first pitch of the game on February 25 that Moniak blasted for a 375-foot home run is a prime example of jumping on a first-pitch fastball.
Conclusion
Jumping on fastballs, particularly early in counts, could go a long way to helping the Rockies combat a tendency to chase pitches the longer at-bats go on. Yes, it is early in spring training with small sample sizes; however, there are promising signs that the team is turning some things around. If they can continue showing improvement, especially when pitchers start using proper scouting reports leading up to the regular season, the offense could rectify the shortcomings of 2025.
This week, Evan Lang and I talk about the injuries in spring training, the first base battle, and the early impressions of the new faces brought into camp.
Jose Quintana didn’t get to throw much in games for the Rockies before heading out to anchor the rotation for Team Colombia in the WBC. He is the winningest Colombian-born pitcher in MLB history, but was forced to miss the 2023 World Baseball Classic after sustaining a rib injury in spring training. He is the team captain and will toss their first game against Puerto Rico.
EASTLAKE, OH - JUNE 26: Rayner Castillo #31 of the West Michigan Whitecaps pitching during the game between the West Michigan Whitecaps and the Lake County Captains at Classic Park on Thursday, June 26, 2025 in Eastlake, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
A year ago, young right-hander Rayner Castillo was one of the fastest rising players in the system. In 2025, he spun his wheels at the High-A level, suffering from some uncharacteristic wildness and more erratic velocity. He continued to rack up ground balls, but the contact got louder and the whiffs dried up a bit. It wasn’t until late in the season when he finally put it together and started shutting teams down again. That’s just a minor setback for a 21-year-old pitcher in his first look at the High-A level, but Castillo needs to get back on horse and make progress in 2026.
Castillo was a member of the Tigers’ 2021 international free agent class out of the Dominican Republic. He was just 16 at the time, and a fairly lean, undistinguished right-hander. It took him a few years to find himself as a pitcher, but advanced strike throwing got him to the Complex League for his age 18 and 19 seasons. He finally broke into full season ball after a great Complex League showing in 2024, now 6’3” and with plenty of muscle added to him frame. The strikeouts were lacking, but Castillo was throwing a very easy 95-96 mph sinker with advanced command and getting a ton of outs on the ground. His slider flashed plus and he had the makings of a solid changeup but both were very inconsistent. Progress with his secondary pitches, especially the changeup, was the main prescription for progress in 2025.
However, we didn’t get that progress. Instead, Castillo’s easy, balanced delivery wasn’t producing quite the same velocity and he sat around 93-94 mph most of the 2025 season at High-A West Michigan. Work to tune up the movement on his slider and changeup combo led to a little more wildness than we’ve seen before from him, and he really struggled to shut down opponents with runners on base. It wasn’t until August and September that he really dialed things in and finished strong.
So, to put a positive spin on it, Castillo got a lot of experience navigating better lineups with less than his best stuff, but finished the year looking back in form. An off year is natural at his age as he stretched out to 98 2/3 innings of work. But clearly there is plenty of work ahead if he’s going to break through at the Double-A level in 2026.
Castillo’s slider is typically 83-84 mph, and in 2024 he was already showing some feel for adding depth or sweep depending on the hitter and the situation. At the same time, he would still occasionally spike one pretty badly, and we were looking for more consistency as he continued to refine the pitch. That didn’t happen until late in the 2025 season. He was less prone to completely yanking it in the dirt, but it was slower and more rounded off than sharp during the summer months, and he continued to have it back up on him at times. Most of his helium coming into the season was on the basis of his easy command of the sinker at 95-96 mph and up to 98 mph, backed by a pretty sharp slider. He lost both for long stretches in 2025, and really only in his final starts in August and September did the two pitches come back to form consistently.
Castillo’s changeup didn’t show any real signs of improvement either, and developing that third pitch was a big goal for 2025. He was throwing a circle changeup in 2024, and while he appeared to tinker with a few different variations this season, he never really got it locked in. It’s still too firm, and with the sinker diminished for much of the summer, the velocity separation was pretty poor.
So, by season’s end, we basically had the same Castillo we saw in 2024. He got back to sitting 95-96 mph with pretty easy command of the sinker. The slider got sharper and he started picking up more whiffs again. But the changeup didn’t improve much if at all. The hope is that this was just a year of growing pains. When a young pitcher makes the leap Castillo did in 2024, there’s often a period of inconsistency as they work on things and try to take the next step.
We’re going to ride with Castillo again and not drop him down in the rankings or grade for now. He won’t be 22 until June, and as long as he has the velo and the slider back this season, he should do well and advance to Double-A Erie. He’s unlikely to ever be a big-time strikeout artist, and the hard sinker and his durability and typically good strike throwing remains the foundation of his approach to hitters, but a depth starter projection is still viable. More likely, he’s a future relief option, but he’ll still have to show better command of the fastball and the slider to get there.
JUPITER, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 26: Masyn Winn #0 of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on during a spring training game against the Houston Astros at Roger Dean Stadium on February 26, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I ask you, dear VEB’r, what could the Cardinals do to surprise the average fan? They have already been surprised with an Oliver Marmol extension, under a new President of Baseball Ops. Chaim Bloom had already worked with Marmol during the Mozeliak transitional years, and you can tell there is an affinity at least between the existing coaching framework and org veteran Oliver Marmol. There was already a pattern that things could and should work out, operationally and personally. The Cardinals will probably never take a gamble again on someone with anger management issues (same for just about every team). You might not like it, but Oliver Marmol is here to stay for a little while. And now they have a $29 all you can eat inclusive ticket, which was kind of surprising given how much they charge for concessions.
But this is about how the Cardinals could surprise us on the field, not about marketing, managers, and front office stuff. Who do you think will be the outliers this year? The overachievers, the come out of nowhere success stories, and also the disappointments… Sadly enough, it could be a bad season.
If all the worst projections come true, the Cardinals could be a 68 win team. And I’m not even considering PECOTA and Vegas. This data is from my four chosen projection systems ZiPS DC, Fangraphs DC, The Bat X, and OOPSY. On the higher ceiling side of things, the Cardinals, if hitting all the best projections, could win 78 games. That could still very well be last place, but that’s a 10 game swing, and if you bet the over on the Vegas odds on the Cardinals, there’s a VERY strong chance you’ll win, in my opinion.
The Reds also have a pretty big difference between the ceiling and floor, at around 8.5 games. The Pirates also are not easy to predict with an 8 game swing. The Brewers and Cubs at about 9 games difference from ceiling to floor. So maybe the Cardinals are only slightly more difficult to pin down, but the possibility is still there.
However, I am going to boldly predict the Cardinals winning even more than what the highest projection combination is saying. When I throw out all the outliers including the highest and lowest projections, this helps the Cardinals the most. They gain 4 games. The Cubs are not as affected when throwing out the outlier projections, probably because projections are more in agreement about that team as it is easier to predict with more veteran players. This illustrates how projecting a team like the Cardinals is a fool’s errand. There are too many known unknowns!
So why do I think they may be able to shatter the ceiling of 78 wins? They are no stranger to outperforming underdog projections, historically. Winn’s highest projection is from OOPSY at 3.7 WAR, I think he will crack 4 WAR. No projection I am choosing expects Herrera to crack 3 WAR, but I think he absolutely will. Is JJ Wetherholt’s rookie ceiling really 2.6 WAR? We are about to find out, starting in under a month! Is Alec Burleson’s ceiling 2.1 WAR? I think not! Or maybe it is, idk. He could certainly do better if he keeps ramping up his wRC+ like he’s done every season (89, 106, 124 over the last three seasons).
Is the Cardinals rotation worth a maximum of about 9 WAR? What if May, Fitts, Liberatore, and McGreevy are all 2+ WAR pitchers? Then it depends on if Leahy is a success story. Or maybe Pallante is more like 2024! There is a path for the rotation to exceed 10 WAR. The bullpen could rather easily outdo the projections as well. I would not write them off so easily. Sure, they will probably finish in last place, but I don’t think they will be quite as bad as some people are imagining they will be.
I predicted 85 wins in the VEB prediction poll! How could they do this? I’ll need to explain 7 games over the ceiling of 78 wins… Winn ups the ante to 5 WAR, Herrera also hits 5 WAR, and Burleson keeps improving his game every season by being a 3.5 WAR player. If those three players can perform at those levels, then the pitching staff just needs to cough up an extra 2 WAR by surpassing their ceiling of 9 by only one win. The consensus of projections predict they can do 8 WAR. This could come from difficult to predict players such as May, Fitts, or Liberatore, or it could come from the unproven bullpen. Does 85 wins mean anything other than being a successful season for a roster that could be seen as a AAAA group? Sure! I don’t think they would be first place at 85 wins, but it’s possible. The Cubs floor is actually below .500 if you imagine all the worst projections for them occurring.
Consensus projection prediction for NL Central end of season:
Cubs
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Now I’d like to think about removing all outliers from the projections and seeing what would happen.
When normalizing the projections, taking out all outlier projections, this is the finish:
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Pirates
Cardinals
Now the Pirates finish just ahead of the Cardinals, but the Brewers and Reds are not far ahead! This angle provides another look at the division, which has a lot of parity, actually. The Cubs aren’t running away with it, but still on top… but they’re only about 6 games ahead of the Cardinals win total. In this version of reality, the NL Central almost certainly does not have a wild card in 2026. Outside of Chicago, the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals are not all that much different. And if this version of reality happens, the Cardinals just have to get really good years out of Winn, Herrera, and Burleson, and the pitching cannot be a huge issue. Then the Cardinals could give the Cubs a run for their money.
Notes and Observations (related to the conclusion of my NL Central projections project)
Overall, looking at all NL Central teams, Fangraphs Depth Charts is the most down the middle overall, not giving outlier projections as much as the other systems
The Bat X is favorable to Cardinals pitching, Fangraphs DC is biased against it in this case
The opposite is true when it comes to Cardinals position players, Fangraphs DC has more outliers and The Bat X isn’t impressed
ZiPS likes the Reds (pitching) and Cubs (position players) moreso than any other system
OOPSY and The Bat X see the most upside to the Pirates, interesting because both incorporate statcast metrics (especially OOPSY)
OOPSY likes the upside of the Brewers position players, The Bat X sees the most upside to the Brewers starting rotation, and ZiPS likes the Brewers key depth pieces most. Confounding devil magic, probably!
Perhaps all the Cardinals needed to be better on offense was the training upgrades in the offseason, another reason for hope is that this transformation will make players like Walker, Gorman, and Scott better on offense… or maybe it’ll help the entire offense be more successful
1980
C0ntinuing on with my bonus coverage of years throughout my life, 1980 begins the all too important 1980s
John Lennon was murdered by Mark David Chapman on December 8, 1980. I only know who one of those guys are, and not the asshole who murdered someone. I only recognize the name of both.
Time is of the essence!
Top Movie picks of 1980:
Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back
Airplane!
Smokey and the Bandit 2
The Blue Lagoon
You let me know what I missed there, I’m sure it’s beyond comprehension!
20 Albums from 1980
Here are my 20 picks from 1980! I tried to go back to a top 10 but failed miserably! In a good way.
