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First place is at stake in the American League Central as the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians meet in Cleveland for the third game in their four-game weekend set.

Cleveland are -133 favorites, having taken the first two games on walk-off hits, taking first in the American League Central Division by a game in the process.

The Guardians have beaten Chicago nine straight in Cleveland. My White Sox vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks call for that streak to hit 10 with a Guardians win.

Who will win White Sox vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-138)

The Cleveland Guardians have won three straight and five of their last seven, while the Chicago White Sox have dropped the last three and four of six. Cleveland has the No. 8 bullpen in MLB and has gotten stronger, calling up Franco Aleman, who had a 0.32 ERA in Triple-A.

Cleveland starts Parker Messick, who is 7-5, 2.85. Messick's fastball is in the 100th percentile in MLB, and he's in the top quartile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate and exit velo allowed.

The Guardians' offense is averaging 29 points higher than their season batting average this week, including 19 runs over the last three games.

COVERS INTEL:Sean Burke is not in the top third in MLB in any metric. His fastball velocity is just 53rd percentile, and his exit velocity allowed and whiff percentage are all in the bottom half of MLB pitchers.  

White Sox vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-108)

The White Sox start Sean Burke, who is 5-4, 3.69, but has troubling underlying metrics. His fastball is the only pitch above average in MLB, and Cleveland's Brayan Rocchio is one of the top fastball hitters in MLB, hitting .327 with five homers against the pitch.

Burke's walk rate is below average, despite improving it from last season, which is problematic against a Guardians lineup that walked 14 times in the first two games of the series.

Chicago's bats have heated up. They've scored 5.4 runs per game over the last two weeks, an increase of half a run a night over their average.

White Sox vs Guardians weather

There is a heat warning in Cleveland with the wind blowing in. There's also a good chance of a thundershower or two this evening. 

White Sox vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +133 | Guardians -138
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-163) | Guardians -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

White Sox vs Guardians trend

The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians.

How to watch White Sox vs Guardians and game info

White Sox vs Guardians latest injuries

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After a big win last night, the Nats celebrate this Independence Day by playing an 11:05 game against the Pirates. They will look to secure a 3rd straight series win on the 250th anniversary of this great country. It will be tough with the Pirates throwing out a hard throwing righty.

The Nats will make a few tweaks to the lineup. Jacob Young was supposed to be back in the lineup, but he was a late scratch. That means it will be the same outfield as last night. Curtis Mead will be back in there at third base. Drew Millas will also be catching in this one. Carson Palmquist will be opening for Zack Littell.

The Pirates are making some changes at the bottom of their lineup Tyler Callihan, who pitched yesterday, will be in the game at first base. Former first overall pick Henry Davis will also be doing the catching here. Besides that, it is a similar lineup to last night. Braxton Ashcraft has had a great season and he will be on the mound in this one.

Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 11:05 AM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

These 4th of July games are always fun, and should be even better with the Nats in the mix. This should be a hotly contested contest on a hot day in DC. Hopefully the Nats can come out on top again. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

Just as there are players who define eras for teams across major sports, there are also those who help make their moments even more unforgettable from high atop a stadium or arena. Names such as Gary Thorne, Vin Scully, Al Michaels, Bob Costas, Doc Emrick, and many others help add to these pieces of history through their voice, mannerisms, and iconic sayings. And for modern Yankees fans, there is no one more iconic and no one who has helped make more memorable moments than John Sterling.

The best part about Sterling being not just a member of the Yankees family, but a key ingredient to every Yankees game, is that he provided a feeling of warmth to every listener. He brought everyone listening on their radio or watching on their televisions at home into the ballpark, and he treated every Yankees fan, player, coach, and team member with the utmost respect. He was a man who not only received tons of awards and recognition, but he deserved them, and he accepted them with grace and humility.

Today, we celebrate the birth of not just an incredible broadcaster and Yankees icon, but the birth of a man who left an impact on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. We miss him dearly.

John (Sloss) Sterling
Born: July 4, 1938 (New York, NY)
Died: May 4, 2026 (Englewood, NJ)
Yankees Tenure: 1989-2024 (radio play-by-play announcer)

Sterling was born in New York and grew up on the Upper East Side. He was up a Yankees fan and listened to original “Voice of the Yankees” Mel Allen call games on the radio, which helped him develop his interest not just in baseball but in becoming a sports broadcaster. After his high school days, he briefly attended Moravian College and Boston University, but returned to New York following his mother’s passing and transferred to the Columbia University School of General Studies. Following his time there, he began his broadcasting career in Wellsville, New York, working at WLSV, where he called football, baseball, and basketball games for the local Wellsville High School.

Sterling then moved to Providence, Rhode Island, before taking a job in Baltimore to broadcast for the NBA’s Baltimore Bullets in 1970-71. In 1971, he returned to WMCA as a full-time employee. He hosted a talk show and also worked calling games for the New York Islanders and New Jersey Nets. He held that play-by-play position from 1970 to 1980, while his talk show—during which he often got to interview the legendary Allen—ended in 1978.

Sterling headed south to Atlanta in 1981 to work for TBS and WSB Radio, where he broadcast games for the Atlanta Hawks and the Atlanta Braves while also hosting a sports talk show through 1989. By that time, his boyhood team got in touch, and his Yankee years began.

From a moment in an elevator in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where Yankees former owner George Steinbrenner—another memorable July 4th birthday—said to Sterling that he was the person he wanted calling Yankees games, Sterling would go down in history. And it was not just for being part of some incredible Yankees title runs and around some of the best teams in MLB history (including the best team in baseball history by record in 1998), but also for his consistency in the booth. Sterling would sit in the radio booth calling Yankees games for the next 35 seasons.

Over those 35 seasons at the helm of the Yankees broadcast booth, Sterling shared it with a handful of announcing partners. Former major leaguer Jay Johnstone, was his first for the 1989 and 1990 seasons, and broadcaster Joe Angel stepped in for 1991. Then came in a young and spry Michael Kay, the current Yankees TV play-by-play announcer for the YES Network, from 1992 to 2001. Formerly a beat writer, Kay attributes much of his success behind the mic to the lessons he learned in the booth with Sterling, and he would often host Yankees events in the present day with his former mentor, including Old-Timers’ Day.

SportsCenter alum Charley Steiner was his next partner from 2002 to 2004 before Steiner moved on to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in 2005, in came Suzyn Waldman, who is a legend in her own right. They were on the call together the longest, until his (somewhat) abrupt retirement in 2024. Sterling and Waldman became a dynamic duo in the booth and, most importantly, they became the best of friends, which every fan tuning in could hear and see. They told incredible stories together, both about their individual and joint experiences off the field and, of course, about their experiences together in the depths of major league ballparks, talking to players, coaches, managers, and staff members of yesteryear teams. Their bond grew over time, giving every Yankees fan a way to feel included in their adventures as well.

All in all, Sterling ended up calling 5,060 consecutive Yankees games, which included every game of the entirety of Derek Jeter’s 20-year career, before the streak ended seven years ago today on July 4, 2019. He fell ill and missed three games the Yankees played against the Tampa Bay Rays, but it gave everyone a chance to see just how incredible Sterling had been for so long.

Over his time calling the Yankees (and even dating back to his early days in New York calling the Islanders and then with the Hawks in Atlanta), Sterling was best known for his catchphrases, particularly after home runs. He’d start every home run call with “It is high! It is far! It is gone!” And then he would lead into a signature tagline for every player. Older fans of the Yankees will remember, “An A-bomb for A-Rod!” “Bern, baby, Bern!” and so many others, while newer fans could hear, “A Judgian Blast,” “Gio Urshela, the most happy fella,” “Yes, inDidi,” through recent years.

Everyone knew it was coming, but every time seemed to feel like the first.

A successful day for the Yankees wasn’t over until Sterling belted “Yankees win! Theeeeeee Yankees win!”

Sterling began the 2024 season in his familiar spot, but he quickly regretted his decision not to step away at last. The travel over half a year was just too much to bear for someone in his eighties. So on April 15th, he announced his retirement, effective immediately. New York then honored Sterling in a pregame ceremony on April 20th. He then called two innings of a game on August 20th against Cleveland, which was due to a t-shirt giveaway celebrating the 20th anniversary of Sterling and Waldman working together in the radio booth. The day was planned before Sterling’s departure from the booth months prior, so he felt it was only right to come back and call a bit of the contest.

Perhaps that sparked a desire for a mini-comeback. The following Thursday, it was revealed that Sterling was discussing a potential postseason return before a final retirement. And it happened! On September 5th, Sterling confirmed he would return to the booth for the final homestand and the playoffs, including up to the 2024 World Series — where he would broadcast for the last time. It was a wonderful treat to have him on the call again, especially in big moments like Juan Soto’s pennant-winning homer in Cleveland.

Sterling made his final broadcast on October 30, 2024, in Game 5 of the World Series, when the Yankees lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers and he officially signed off for the final time. He occasionally popped back on the air for radio specials, but aside from that, his long career was over.

Sterling’s legacy amongst baseball and the Yankees earned him a lifetime of awards, including 12 sports Emmys (two for a biography-style television program called Yankeeography), multiple nominations for the Ford C. Frick Award by the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and he was awarded the Pride of the Yankees Award at the team’s annual Welcome Home dinner. It’s a true shame that Sterling won’t be around to see it, but hopefully he’ll one day get a plaque in Monument Park as well, just like Allen.

The number of incredible baseball moments that Sterling called over his tenured career seems incalcuble. He was a one-of-a-kind broadcaster with a one-of-a-kind spirit both for life and for baseball. He passed away on May 4, 2026, but he continues to be honored by Yankees and baseball fans alike inside and outside of the broadcast booth. His work will live on forever in the hearts and minds of everyone around the game, and the baseball world was blessed to have him be a part of such important pieces of the game’s history.

Happy birthday, Mr. Sterling! The first birthday after someone’s passing is always hard, and we send our best to his family on this day.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (39-45) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Weiss got the start for Sugar Land and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs. The offense got on the board in the 6th inning on a Ferreras sac fly. In the 9th inning, Sugar Land rallied for 2 runs on an error and a Spence sac fly to tie the game. Unfortunately the Comets walked it off in the 9th as Sugar Land fell 4-3.

Note: Santa has a 1.85 ERA in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-2, R, BB, SB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 2B: 0-for-2, R, RBI
• Cesar Salazar, C: 1-for-3, R, SB

• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (36-43) lost 8-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning on an Austin RBI double. They got another run in the third on a Biggers solo home run. Hicks got the start but struggled allowing 6 runs over 5 innings. The pen allowed a couple more runs as the Hooks found themselves down 8-2. The offense got one back in the 9th on Sisneros RBI single but that was it as they fell 8-3.

Note: Schiavone has a .807 OPS in Double-A.

• Cameron Sisneros, 1B: 1-for-4, R, RBI
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-3, 2 BB, 2 SB
• Drew Brutcher, RF: 1-for-4, BB
• Trevor Austin, 2B: 2-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, BB
• Yamal Encarnacion, CF: 1-for-3, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Jax Biggers, 3B: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB

• James Hicks, RHP: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (26-52) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Asheville offense got on the board in the first inning on a Moss RBI single. They got another run in the 3rd inning on a Powell RBI single. Smith started for Asheville and had a solid outing allowing 2 runs over 5.2 innings. In the 5th, the offense scored 2 runs on a Powell RBI double and Moss sac fly. The bullpen allowed a run in the 9th but was able to hold on for the 4-3 win.

Note: Moss is hitting .389 for Asheville this season.

• Justin Thomas, LF: 0-for-2, 2 R, BB
• Caden Powell, CF: 2-for-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-3, 2 RBI

• Parker Smith, RHP: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (40-38) won 3-0 (BOX SCORE)

Perez started for the Woodpeckers and was dominant tossing 5 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts. The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 6th inning on a Luciano 3 run home run. Gonzalez relieved Perez and pitched well as he closed out the game with 4 scoreless innings with the Woodpeckers winning 3-0.

Note: Perez has 10 walks to 86 strikeouts this season.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-3, R, 2B, SB
• Xavier Neyens, SS: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI
• Josh Wakefield, RF: 1-for-3, BB, SB

• Javier Perez, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (WIN)
• Rafael Gonzalez, RHP: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Colton Gordon – 7:05 CT

CC: Trey Dombroski – 7:05 CT

AV: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 5:30 CT

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The New York Yankees are -158 home favorites against the Minnesota Twins, and I’m laying the moneyline rather than chasing the run line.

Zebby Matthews’ barrel and air-ball issues line up poorly against New York’s elevated power profile, while Brendan Beck’s first career start keeps Minnesota live enough to push this total Over.

Here are my Twins vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.

Who will win Twins vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-158)

I’m backing the New York Yankees because Zebby Matthews’ biggest weakness runs into their biggest offensive strength.

After breaking through the slump yesterday, I'm more comfortable holding them to their regular-season priors too.

This profile looks like a matchup we’ve seen so often against New York: a starting pitcher with a high barrel rate problem that the Yankees expose.

Matthews enters this matchup with one in the bottom 5th percentile of the MLB. A metric the Yankees still top the league in.

Back the Yankees with confidence up to -165.

COVERS INTEL: Minnesota’s 39.4% ground-ball rate is below MLB average, giving the Twins more lift potential against Beck’s early hard-contact issues.

Twins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-125)

Both lineups have a clear team-level path to damage. Matthews allows too much lift, and the Yankees’ offense is built to punish that with an above-average fly-ball rate, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage.

The Minnesota Twins can answer against Brendan Beck. The sample size is super small for the young arm, who makes just his second appearance of the season and first career start; however, he allowed some loud contact in his first outing with an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph.

The Twins, who have a near-14 % barrel rate, can expose that. Play to 10.

Twins vs Yankees weather

Twins vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Minnesota +160 | New York -158
• Run line: Minnesota +1.5 | New York -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Twins vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 30 games at home (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees.

How to watch Twins vs Yankees and game info

Twins vs Yankees latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals, July 4, 2026, 11:05 a.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates are celebrating the 4th of July by facing off against the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital. It’s an early start for both teams to give fans an early and bright start to their Independence Day festivities.

Braxton Ashcraft is taking the mound for the Pirates. He’s won his last three starts, including his most recent appearance on June 29 against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he pitched six innings and gave up five hits and five runs. The Pirates’ offense had his back in the 11-7 victory.

He pitched against the Nationals at home on April 16, going 5.2 innings while giving up five hits and two runs in an 8-7 loss in 10 innings.

Zack Littell is getting the ball for the Nationals in the middle game of the series. Littell won his last start on June 28 against the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched five innings, giving up three hits and two runs in a 6-4 victory at Camden Yards. The Nats are 9-8 this season when Littell pitches, and he has won seven of 13 decisions he has been a part of.

If the Pirates play like they have in Ashcraft’s last three starts, they should be able to walk away with a win.

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet Pittsburgh

Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft (8-3, 3.33 ERA) vs. Zack Littell (7-6, 5.29 ERA)

BD community, chime off in the comments section below.

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Today's MLB same-game parlay predictions feature various stars. 

I'm eyeing Rafael Devers to stay hot at the plate, while Sonny Gray will dominate the Los Angeles Angels. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Jul 4. 

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
SFG vs COL	+475
BOS vs LAA	+236
SD vs LAD	+550

Giants at Rockies SGP: Devers Stays Hot

Rafael Devers has been torching baseballs lately. He's smacked four home runs across his last six games while averaging an elite 62.5% hard hit rate and 31.3% barrel rate.

Devers will be looking forward to tonight's matchup against the Colorado Rockies as he faces Tomoyuki Sugano. The righty has allowed 2.17 HR/9 across the last month, and the ball flies in Denver. 

Robbie Ray, meanwhile, takes the ball for the San Francisco Giants. He's compiled a 3.20 FIP across his last five appearances, and the left-hander hasn't allowed an earned run in three consecutive starts. He'll shut down the red-hot Rockies. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Rockies.TV

See full analysis of this game in our Giants vs. Rockies predictions.

Red Sox at Angels SGP: The Sonny Gray Show

Sonny Gray has been the Boston Red Sox's most reliable starter this season. The right-hander owns a 9-1 record, and he's compiled an impressive 2.48 xERA across his last five outings. 

Gray has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in three of his previous four appearances. The righty is up against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is hitting .214 over the last week while posting a horrible 51 wRC+. Gray is also racking up the Ks, striking out 20 in his last two starts. 

The Red Sox will face the struggling Sam Aldegheri, who has allowed 12 earned runs across his last three appearances. Boston will capitalize on his inability to limit hard contact, and Gray will toss a gem. 

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, ABTV

See full analysis of this game in our Red Sox. Angels predictions.

Padres at Dodgers SGP: Yamamoto Bounces Back

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 3.53 FIP over his last two starts, and he did allow three earned runs to the San Diego Padres last week. However, prior to his last two starts, the Los Angeles Dodgers ace cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in five consecutive appearances.

Over the last month, his ERA sits at 2.22, and he owns a 2.08 ERA across two starts this season against the Padres.  

Freddie Freeman is batting .370 over his last seven games while posting a 41.7% hard-hit rate. He has three multi-hit games over the last week, and the pitching matchup is favorable.

Griffin Canning has been getting torched, with opponents collecting a 49.1% hard-hit rate against him over the last month. Freeman is also hitting .314 off righties. 

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, SportsNet LA

See full analysis of this game in our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The San Diego Padres’ dirty little secret is Jackson Merrill’s steady decline at the plate, and the organization avoids talking about his struggles. It is tough to suggest Merrill is mired in a slump when his batting average has dropped 81 points since the All-Star’s rookie season in 2024.

Much of his decline stems from the Padres’ mismanagement, which created several bad habits that ruined his sweet swing.

Is Souza the problem?

2026 has brought a new hitting coach, Steven Souza Jr., into the fold. He has a different approach to hitting from the team’s previous coach, Victor Rodriguez. Souza emphasizes pulling more pitches for extra-base hits. 

The move from Rodriguez has caused an informational overload for Merrill at the plate. At times, he looks tentative, as Merrill is recognizing pitches too late to make solid contact. The regression is alarming, as the Friars need to re-evaluate whether he should go back to his old approach.

The Friars failed to hire a hitting coach capable of enhancing Merrill’s natural strengths as a hitter. In his rookie season, he excelled at hitting to all fields. But Souza’s approach has eroded those skills. 

Now, Merrill is attempting to pull every pitch, which results in either a sky-high pop-up that barely travels out of the infield or an easy groundball to the second baseman. Souza has failed to help him make the necessary adjustments to counter the pitching sequence during an at-bat.

It is time to hire a hitting coach who specializes in repairing swings. If not, the damage may be irreversible. 

Stammen backs his coaching staff

Padres skipper Craig Stammen backs his hitting coach. But at some point, someone has to take the blame for the offensive struggles this season. 

In Merrill’s case, no talk of him moving down the batting order. Team management is confident their young star will turn his season around.

Unfortunately, we’re in July, past the halfway point in the season, and Merrill’s past hitting prowess seems light-years away.

Chasing too many bad pitches

If we take a deep dive into his plate appearances, Merrill has decent power numbers. He has 25 extra-base hits with a .211 batting average, as Merrill will outpace his power production from a year ago.

However, there are concerns with his approach during at-bats. Merrill’s chase rate is poor at 34.2%, and his strike rate (24.9%) is the highest of his professional career. The Friar Faithful have seen too much of him swinging wildly as the ball tails outside the strike zone. 

Fortunately, Merrill’s hitting slump has not impacted his stellar defense. He is still considered one of the best to patrol centerfield in the game today.

The blame for this mess lies at the feet of Padres President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller, who has been too stubborn to recognize that his managerial choice is way over his head. Failing to hire a proven major league manager has stunted Merrill’s growth. 

Stammen’s coaching staff is the butt of the Friar Faithful’s jokes. The team’s loyal fan base has lost faith in the coaching staff’s ability to turn Merrill back into a top run-producer.

The first order of business is to hire a coach to work with him. It is never too late to fix Merrill and get the talented outfielder back to hitting the baseball with more authority.

After a game like this, I think it’s important to start with the big picture. There are only four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace for 90 wins. Deep breath and flush.

This loss doesn’t count extra and neither does Wednesday’s blowout win. Just two random, crazy games in a season full of crazy outcomes. First team in history to win by 15+ and then lose by 15+. Wacky.

Suffice is to say that the Cub defense isn’t a magic wand for David Peterson. Unsurprising for a guy who became available on one for one swap for a prospect that wasn’t creating a lot of buzz. I don’t think this means that Peterson can’t help this Cub team, particularly while so much of its regularly scheduled pitching staff is inhabiting the injured list. If you thought he was some panacea, then today was sobering. If you thought he was another guy who can pitch an occasional really good game and might get some boost from a strong defense, then throw this game out. If you aren’t a really elite pitcher, odds are you aren’t getting away with your clunkers.

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are a different team when they jump ahead early. We’re seeing a lot of that in Cub games in general. There is a lot of benefit to getting ahead early. That is the fun thing, even with the changes of the modern game. There is still an enormous benefit to having the better starting pitcher. There are more dynamics to the modern game the way it is played. A superb bullpen can steal a close game. A lousy bullpen can undo all of the hard work your starter did. To be fair, those things were always true, but they are amplified in the modern game because of just how many innings bullpens cover now.

All of the change in the game, and a three-run homer in the second, is still a sizable problem. Six runs over three is nearly insurmountable and the game was over after four. After the Cubs batted in the sixth, no play had any WPA. After the bottom of the fourth, no play was worth more than .001. Masyn Winn’s homer to make it 11-0 was that last play worth any real value at .010. And even that is very little value.

So basically, nothing to see here. Move along.

Three Positives:

• Pedro Ramirez came off the bench and had a triple and scored the only run.
• Alex Bregman had two hits and drove in that only run. One of the hits was a double.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had a double before leaving this one early.

Game 88, July 3: Cardinals 17, Cubs 1 (49-39)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Carson Kelly (.011). 1-4
• Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.006). 0-3, BB
• Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.004). 1-3, 2B

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: David Peterson (-.369). 3.2 IP, 23 BF, 9 H, 3 BB, 10 ER, 3 K (L 1-1)
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.043). 0-3
• Kid: Alex Bregman(-.027). 2-4, 2B, RBI

WPA Notes: Ramirez does finish fourth, but again there was basically no leverage by the time he gets in there. WPA registered 87 plays and 24 of them had a WPA score of .000.

WPA Play of the Game: Nathan Church’s three-run homer with two outs in the second. (.263)

Cubs Play of the Game: David Peterson struck out Jordan Walker with a runner on third and one out, the game scoreless in the first. (.057)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 87 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 168 out of 228 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +18
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Michael Busch +12
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera/Seiya Suzuki -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13

Up Next: Game two of the three-game weekend set. Shōta Imanaga (5-6, 4.30) starts for the Cubs. He’s just 1-2 with a 5.67 over his last seven starts (39.2 IP). He was pretty good last time though, against the Padres to start this homestand. Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09) starts for the cardinals. He’s 1-1 with a 4.29 over his last seven (35.2). He was also good in his last one, a start against the Marlins in St. Louis. Leahy hasn’t started on the road since June 12 when he allowed four runs over five innings in Minnesota. He held the Cubs to one run over 4.1 innings back on May 30.

Win a game, keep some positive momentum going. Blah, blah, blah. Momentum. Starting pitching. You go we go Shōta, ok? Doesn’t have the same ring, but still true.

Hello friends, and happy Fourth of July!

The Mariners dropped a snoozer to the Blue Jays last night, falling 2-0 thanks to a dazzling performance from Jays starter Dylan Cease.

The Mariners have the chance to do the most patriotic thing of all time today and vanquish the invading Canadians. Do you believe the Logan Gilbert-Emerson Hancock piggyback can get it done?

In Mariners news…

• Max Ellingsen continued his MLB Draft profiles with a close look at Texas Tech outfielder Logan Hughes.

Around the league…

• The Yankees have placed left-hander Carlos Rodón on the injured list with elbow inflammation.
• Orioles closer Ryan Helsley is also headed to the IL with elbow discomfort.
• Royals lefty Kris Bubic was shut down from his rehab with shoulder soreness.
• Padres right-hander Randy Vásquez hit the injured list after taking a comebacker to the ankle.
• The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen.
• Now at the halfway point of the season, Bradford Doolittle at ESPN checked in on the major awards races for both leagues.
• Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, and Bradford Doolittle redrafted the 2023-2025 MLB drafts in one big mega-draft.

Anders’ pick…

• Australian officials are warning residents not to interact with TikTok sensation Neil the Seal, the first male elephant seal to visit Tasmania in years — who is also a massive jerk.

The kids are celebrating Independence Day, so let’s see how they did last night.

Rochester 11, Lehigh Valley 5

So yeah, the Phillies are in trouble if someone in the rotation gets hurt, aren’t they? Kolby Allard allowed seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings for the IronPigs, dooming their game from the beginning. It wasted solid efforts at the plate from Dylan Moore (3-4, 2 2B, 3B, 2 R) and Otto Kemp (2-4, R) too. The lack of pitching depth has been an issue for a few years as the team has failed to bring in those starting pitchers on minor league deals in the winter thanks to their having so few opportunities at the big league level. This year it is really starting to show, so we’ll have to continue to hope for continued health.

Of note, Brad Keller had his first rehab appearance last night and it didn’t go great. He allowed two runs in his inning of work and didn’t strike anyone out. His fastball topped at 96.9 mph. He only got one swing and miss.

New Hampshire 12, Reading 4

Alex Binelas (3-4, 2 2B, RBI) and Raylin Heredia (2-4, HR, RBI) led the offense on the evening, but it was the same as the IronPigs. The pitching was a mess, particularly the late game relief and New Hampshire was able to pull away. Braydon Tucker allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings to start, but it was Tristan Garnett and Aaron Combs, allowing a combined seven runs in two innings of relief in the eighth and ninth innings, that salted the game away.

Rome 1, Jersey Shore 0

This game was shortened by a power outage that caused the game end after six innings, but the story was Ramon Marquez. He struck out nine over five innings, only giving up two hits and the one run scored in the game. The offense did nothing, so let’s focus in on Marquez.

That changeup is illegal in most states. The team seems to have really found something in Marquez, a pitcher climbing the ranks of many Phillies lists. How far up he goes remains to be seen, but don’t be surprised to see his name popping up in trade rumors this year. Maybe he doesn’t have ace upside, but this looks like a quality arm that can lead a trade package for something significant.

Ft. Myers 4, Clearwater 3

A clean sweep of the Phillies affiliates, the Threshers got home runs from Griffin Burkholder (3-5, HR, RBI) and Nathan Humphreys (2-5, 2B, HR, RBI) on offense, but not much in the way of starting pitching to hold on for a victory. Ryan Degges led up three runs in two innings of work to start the game to put the Threshers in a hole that they could not climb out of. Of note, Zuher Yousuf had four innings of relief and allowed only three baserunners while striking out five.

Meet the Mets

A two-run homer from Juan Soto was close to the only moment of joy for the Mets last night, as they fell to the Braves 5-3 in the series opener in Atlanta. Christian Scott took the loss after giving up three runs on two homers in four innings of work, and A.J. Minter and Kodai Senga both surrendered homers as well out of the bullpen.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, Daily News, North Jersey

Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor both downplayed reports of a fractured relationship between the two of them (the former doing so with a rather interesting analogy).

Last night saw A.J. Ewing move to the leadoff spot for the first time in his major league career.

The plan for Senga remains uncertain after another decent relief outing last night.

Luke Weaver has been on quite a remarkable run for the Mets.

The Athletic wrote about the Mets’ priorities at the trade deadline as they inch closer to selling.

Andy Green’s history as farm director can hopefully assist him in his new role as interim manager.

Around the National League East

The Nationals were unbothered by the tripe digit degree weather in DC last night, as they slugged their way to a 9-5 win over the Pirates.

Count the Marlins in as another team who hit bombs aplenty last night, as five home runs propelled them to a 12-5 victory over the Athletics.

The Braves have added a former MVP to their organization, inking Andrew McCutchen to a minor league deal.

Bryce Harper is looking pretty elite again these days.

Around Major League Baseball

MLB issued their monthly awards for June yesterday, with Junior Caminero and Pete Crow-Armstrong receiving Player of the Month for their respective leagues.

Several teams in the National League are facing questions heading into next month’s trade deadline.

The Yankee saw a couple players return from the injured list while also placing Carlos Rodón on the IL due to left elbow inflammation.

Aroldis Chapman has now recorded more strikeouts as a reliever than any pitcher in MLB history.

Shohei Ohtani will sit today after leaving last night’s game with a right biceps injury.

The Mariners have placed Julio Rodriguez on the 7-day concussion IL after he was struck by a ball in the back of the head.

Padres pitcher Randy Vásquez has also been placed on the IL after getting struck in the ankle by a comebacker and fainting on his way to get an X-ray.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Vasilis Drimalitis previewed the Independence Day weekend series in Atlanta.

Joe Sokolowski provided the latest installment of This Week in Mets Quotes.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets began a game that would end the following morning after nineteen innings on this date in 1985.

Happy Fourth of July! I hope everyone has fun plans and that the Cardinals celebrate with another 17 runs or so this evening. Today, I want to take a step back from the chaotic, and entertaining, iteration of the Cardinals and indulge in a little nostalgia by checking in on where some of the most memorable teams of this century were sitting on Independence Day. What is the point of this exercise? Mostly just for fun, but I will say, these snapshot views are a good reminder that anything can happen in baseball, and usually does. 

We will start our journey a quarter century ago at the dawn of the Albert Pujols era.

2001

Entering play on July 4, 2001, the Cardinals’ record stood at 40-41 after having dropped their sixth straight game and ninth out of their last 11 the day before. They trailed Chicago by seven games in the NL Central and were three games behind the Astros. 

Despite the mediocre record, the team looked pretty loaded on offense. Jim Edmonds was coming off a 6.5-WAR introduction to St. Louis in 2000. Mark McGwire had struggled mightily, but he was also coming off a 195 wRC+ season himself. The real excitement was with a couple of young guns leading the way. JD Drew was having a coming-out party in his age-25 season with 21 home runs and 3.8 WAR through the first half. There was also a rookie named Albert Pujols who was off to a historic start to his career. 

On the pitching side of things, Matt Morris had returned to the rotation after missing 1999 with an injury and pitching 31 games out of the bullpen the year before. His record was 10-4 and he carried the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 2.65. Darryl Kile was coming off a 20-win season the year before and was the only other effective starting pitcher, having posted 1.6 WAR through the first half of the season. After those two, veterans Andy Benes and Dustin Hermanson had been largely ineffective. Rick Ankiel had started six games in April and May, but after averaging over a walk per inning, was sent to rookie ball to sort out his problems. The Cardinals had another highly touted pitching prospect in Bud Smith, who had been given his first start several weeks prior. Smith was the 39th-ranked prospect in baseball heading into the season and was excelling in Memphis as a 21-year-old. 

The lineup the Cardinals rolled out on July 4 against the Brewers was missing Drew, but it was still a solid group.

*Stats through July 3

Game Recap

The game was a relative laugher as the Cardinals scored two in the third, one in the fifth, and three in the seventh to build a 6-0 lead in a game that ended 7-2. Fernando Vina hit his third home run of the season and Bobby Bonilla added a pinch-hit bomb in the ninth to back 6.2 scoreless innings from Mike Matthews. 

How did the season play out? 

The Cardinals stopped the bleeding with that July 4 win, but they limped along for another month carrying a record of 57-55 after being walked off by the Expos on August 8. The next day, Matt Morris pitched the team to a 9-6 win and kicked off an 11-game winning streak. When the dust settled, the Cardinals had 93 wins and took home the NL Wild Card after losing the divisional tiebreaker to the Astros. 

The second-half surge was fueled on the offensive side by continued excellence from Pujols (151 wRC+) and Edmonds (161 wRC+), and even a slight rebound from McGwire (22 home runs and 119 wRC+). 

The real difference was on the pitching side. Morris continued his torrid pace, putting up another 3.5 WAR while winning 12 games in the second half to finish 22-8. Darryl Kile kicked it into gear with a 2.74 ERA across his last 17 starts. In a brilliant move, Walt Jocketty flipped Ray Lankford for veteran righty Woody Williams. Williams went 7-1 in the season’s last two months while further stabilizing the rotation. Finally, Bud Smith was given 13 second-half starts and pitched to the tune of a 3.86 ERA, no-hitting the Padres on September 3. It would, no doubt, be the start of an exceptional career for the 21-year-old prodigy. 

The season would end with a Game 5 loss in the NLDS to the Diamondbacks, led by Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson.

Fast-forwarding five years and about 200 Pujols home runs later brings us to…

2006

The Cardinals had come off of consecutive 100-win seasons in 2004 and 2005. The roster had undergone some reshuffling over the offseason, particularly on the offensive side, as Mark Grudzielanek (2.8 WAR) and Reggie Sanders (1.7 WAR) left via free agency and Larry Walker (2.2 WAR) retired. Still, the MV3 was in place, with Yadier Molina and David Eckstein also in the fold and big offseason acquisition Juan Encarnacion expected to provide solid supporting production. Through June 18, the team was humming along as expected at 42-26 and seemingly tracking toward another 100-win season. Then came an eight-game losing streak. Heading into play on July 4, the Cardinals had lost 11 of their last 14 and had seen their division lead shrink to just one game. 

As the Cardinals prepared to play the Braves on July 4, their lineup looked less intimidating than in years past.

*Stats through July 3

Pujols and Rolen were chugging along, but Jim Edmonds had battled injuries and was off to a slow start. Chris Duncan had been recalled from Memphis and had provided some pop with three home runs in his first 18 games, but he had not yet walked and was an adventure in the outfield. 

Chris Carpenter was on the bump and was following up his 2005 Cy Young campaign with an excellent first half. He carried a 2.85 ERA and had already accrued 1.9 WAR. After him, the rotation was bleak. Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Mark Mulder, and Sidney Ponson had made the majority of the starts and all carried ERAs that started with a five or higher. Top prospect Anthony Reyes had just been inserted into the rotation and carried a 3.30 ERA through his first five starts. The bullpen was equally as troubling. Star closer Jason Isringhausen had saved 24 games in 30 opportunities and carried a 3.89 ERA, but his underlying metrics were terrifying with a FIP over six. Rookie Adam Wainwright was off to a decent start, and veteran Braden Looper had been solid, but, overall, it was an uninspiring group.

Game Recap

The game was relatively low drama. The Cardinals got two doubles apiece from Jim Edmonds and Yadier Molina as well as a home run from Juan Encarnacion en route to a 6-3 win. Carpenter was not his usual dominant self, but he got through five innings with only two runs allowed and handed the ball to Wainwright for two scoreless innings. The Braves threatened in the eighth inning, but Isringhausen was summoned to record a clean four-out save. 

How did the season play out? 

This July 4 win was not a grand turning point in the regular season. The win lifted the team’s record to 45-37, but the Cardinals played sub-.500 ball the rest of the way, finishing 38-41. Fortunately, the Astros limped along to an 82-80 record and the Cardinals were able to squeeze into the playoffs with an 83-win season. Chris Duncan and Scott Spiezio would provide just enough second-half firepower to offset the slumping Edmonds and Rolen, and Pujols would continue to obliterate the league, finishing with a 174 wRC+. On the pitching side, Jeff Suppan turned things around with a 3.13 ERA over his final 16 starts and Chris Carpenter cruised to another five WAR season. The rest of the rotation remained a dumpster fire. Midseason acquisition Jeff Weaver had a 5.18 ERA. After the promising start, Reyes struggled to a 6.02 ERA the remainder of the season. Not to be outdone, Jason Marquis went 4-10 with a 6.33 ERA over his final 16 starts.

We all know the rest of the story: the Cardinals made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the juggernaut Detroit Tigers in three games. 

The next few years were not as kind to the Cardinals as Edmonds and Rolen aged and moved on, but Pujols was still there preparing for the final year of his contract as the 2011 season began.

2011

The Cardinals, now five years removed from their magical World Series run, had not won a playoff game since 2006 and had missed the playoffs entirely in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Still, they had the consensus best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and a legitimate MVP candidate in Matt Holliday playing second fiddle. Yadier Molina had emerged as a defense-first, borderline star-level player, and Colby Rasmus was looking to build on the 4-WAR season he posted as a 23-year-old in 2010. The only real offseason move was taking a flyer on 35-year-old Lance Berkman, who had seen his wRC+ decline the last three seasons. 

Entering play on July 4, the Cardinals had the third-best offense in baseball by wRC+ at 110. Albert Pujols had fractured his wrist against Kansas City two weeks prior and was expected to be out four to six weeks. Pujols was having his worst season to date, having amassed just 1.5 WAR and a 136 wRC+. Still, the offense was looking pretty solid thanks to a resurgent Berkman and the progression of Jon Jay and David Freese, who had gotten their feet wet in 2010. 

The Cardinals lineup facing off against the Reds and Johnny Cueto was:

*Stats through July 3

Chris Carpenter was given yet another Independence Day assignment. He came into the game at 3-7 with an ERA of 4.00, but his underlying metrics were solid enough to support a WAR of 1.7. With co-ace Adam Wainwright out for the season, Jaime Garcia was leading the staff with a WAR of 2.1. Kyle Lohse was enjoying a bounce-back year and carried a 2.97 ERA through the first half of the season. Jake Westbrook and Kyle McClellan filled out the back half of the rotation and were providing roughly replacement-level production between them. The bullpen had accrued -0.8 WAR thanks to horrific performances to date from Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Brian Tallet, and Maikel Cleto. On the positive side, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and Eduardo Sanchez were doing an admirable job setting up for closer Fernando Salas. All four pitchers carried ERAs below three to keep the bullpen afloat. 

Game Recap

Unlike our previous two Fourth of July jamborees, this one was anything but a laugher. Carpenter locked horns with Reds ace Johnny Cueto. The game remained scoreless until the bottom of the eighth inning. Colby Rasmus led off with a single against Cueto and moved to second on a Yadier Molina bunt. Schumaker hit a deep flyout to center, allowing Rasmus to advance to third. Already at 119 pitches, Carpenter was lifted for pinch hitter Mark Hamilton. Hamilton had 11 career hits coming into play that day, but came through with a single to drive in the game-winning run. The hit would be the last of Hamilton’s major-league career, as he was sent down a few days later and never got another chance. The one run held up as Salas slammed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth inning. 

How did the season play out? 

Chris Carpenter continued his dominance, going 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA the rest of the way to lead the rotation. Edwin Jackson was acquired in the Colby Rasmus trade and helped stabilize things with a 5-2 record and 3.62 ERA as a starter. The bullpen was remade as Jason Motte eventually shifted to the closer role, posting a 1.83 ERA after July 4. Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski were both nails after also coming over in the Rasmus trade.

Pujols miraculously returned from his fractured wrist after just two weeks and carried a 157 wRC+ the rest of the way. It was, however, Yadier Molina who led the team in WAR in the second half as his offense exploded. He ran a 148 wRC+ while putting up 3.2 WAR in 62 games to kick off his three-year run as a legitimate offensive weapon. Rafael Furcal was also added at the deadline and helped solidify the infield by taking over shortstop duties from Ryan Theriot.

The July 4 win against the Reds moved the Cardinals into sole possession of first place in the NL Central, a game up on Milwaukee, at 46-40. The Cardinals mostly tread water in July, taking a half-game lead over the Brewers following a win on the 26th. The Brewers then decided to rip off 23 wins over their next 26 games to put the division out of reach. On August 24, the Cardinals were 10 games behind the Brewers and 10.5 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card. The rest, of course, is history. The Cardinals finished the season on a 23-9 stretch while the Braves collapsed, allowing the Cardinals to capture the last playoff spot. You know what happened after that. 

The takeaway from checking in on these three teams at the midseason mark is simple: you just never know.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Evan Grant’s weekly stock report revives the “buyers/sellers at the deadline” conversation.

Kennedi Landry writes that Evan Carter’s IL stint might have been a silver lining in terms of finding his bat.

Jacob Latz was named AL Reliever of the Month.

Aaaand that’s about all for this morning. The Rangers resume their weird series with the Tigers today at 3:05 with Kumar Rocker on the mound.

Happy Fourth of July and go Rangers!