About a month ago, I wrote about Cody Bellinger’s vastly improved walk rate. At the time, his season wRC+ stood at a robust 141, fueled by a career-high 15.2-percent walk rate. Since then, Bellinger’s numbers have slipped, but only slightly. His walk rate is a still stellar 13.5 percent, which would still be his highest since his MVP-winning 2019, and his .272/.366/.467 slash line comes out to a 133 wRC+. That’s squarely within middle-of-the-order territory.

What’s even more reassuring is that Bellinger has managed to maintain his strong walk rate without sacrificing his quality of contact or his strikeout-avoiding skills. His xwOBA is at .371, seven points above his wOBA and over 40 points up from last year. His strikeout rate is a measly 12.2 percent, an elite mark in this day and age — it places him 12th among 156 qualified MLB hitters this year, ahead of noted contact stalwarts such as Juan Soto or José Ramírez. Bellinger’s walk rate appears to be more than a weird one-year blip (see: Ward, Taylor); it genuinely feels like he’s fixed the weakest part of his profile while retaining his strengths.

In my earlier post, I mentioned that Bellinger’s increased walk rate had improved my outlook on his performance going forward. Well, it’s not just me; the projection systems also have a rosier view of Bellinger’s future performance given his strong showing so far this year. Here’s a comparison of his preseason projected wRC+ marks to his updated rest-of-season projections as of the time of writing.

Bellinger’s wRC+ projections have all seen an uptick due to his strong performance over the first two-and-a-half months of the season, and if you look at his triple-slash forecasts, you’ll find that most of that comes from his improved OBP projections. Yes, it still has just been a little under 44 percent of the season, but all three systems have seen enough over that span to re-evaluate his on-base abilities.

Even looking beyond this year, Bellinger’s increased walk rate provides him with a higher baseline as he enters the initial years of his decline phase. The low-OBP, mediocre-contact quality version of Bellinger was still a solid player, but he was heavily reliant on his contact skills to prop up his batting line – that’s a position you don’t want to find yourself in as a batter on the wrong side of 30. With his robust 2026 walk rate, though, Bellinger can afford to absorb some erosion of his contact skills and still maintain his offensive output. That makes his five-year, $162.5 million deal seem less like an overpay and more like a good deal, even if it ends up being underwater towards the back end.

Here, it’s important to note that the Yankees might not even be on the hook for the tail end of Bellinger’s contract. As readers pointed out in response to my earlier piece, if Bellinger keeps his current performance up, he will likely choose to opt out after next year and re-enter the free agent market as a 31-year-old; and if not next year, then in 2028, as a 32-year-old. That would free up a lot of money for the Yankees to spend on other needs; or, if the outfield turns out to be a pressing need, they could consider bringing him back. Either way, it’s a much better position to be in for the Yankees than to be beholden to Bellinger’s full contract with no chance of him going anywhere.

As fans, it’s easy to play the role of armchair batting coach and ascribe easy fixes to players’ flaws. Dude strikes out too much? Choke up and stop swinging for the fences! Guy can’t take walks? Stop swinging at junk!

Usually, it’s not that simple. Baseball is hard, and so is changing your profile as a player. However, in Cody Bellinger’s case, it was that simple, apparently. All he needed to do was take his walks, and so he did. And his team, and its fans, are so much happier because of it.

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Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Wilyer Abreu	Over 1.5 total bases	-104
Brandon Lowe	Over 1.5 total bases	-106
Dominic Canzone	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	+109

Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 total bases (-104)

I am already fading Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Max Scherzer on another prop today, so why not fully take advantage of the old man's weaknesses? Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu finds himself in a great spot to do damage against Scherzer's offerings.

The 26-year-old has been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, batting .310 with a .621 SLG and .921 OPS. He has also produced a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate during that stretch.

On top of that, Abreu owns nearly 60% arsenal coverage against Scherzer's pitch mix, with every offering grading below league average this season, per FanGraphs.

Against left-handed hitters, the future Hall of Famer has struggled to keep the ball on the ground, allowing nearly a 75% elevation rate alongside a 13% barrel rate. Those hitters have also generated a .544 xSLG and .388 xwOBA against him.

Getting this prop at nearly even money feels like a gift. I would comfortably play it down to -110.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, SN1

Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (-106)

Brandon Lowe and the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in a strong spot tonight against Aaron Civale and the Athletics. Despite a recent slump, this feels like a good opportunity for Lowe to get back on track.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Lowe is hitting just .222, but the underlying numbers are still solid with a 43% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel rate. He also brings strong familiarity here, with a 73% arsenal coverage against Civale’s pitch mix.

On the mound, Civale enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate per Batters-Box, grading poorly across matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. Left-handed hitters have given him fits all season, allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate.

At home, those splits jump to a .354 average, .646 slugging, and a .452 wOBA, with lefties elevating the ball 77.6% of the time.

This sets up well for Lowe, who profiles with elite underlying metrics, strong matchup coverage, and a track record of getting to this number close to 50% of the time, while also carrying roughly a 35% home run rate in similar spots. I would play this down to -115.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, SNP

Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+109)

CALZONES FOR EVERYONE!

Mr. Dominic Canzone steps into a strong spot tonight against Baltimore Orioles right hander Kyle Bradish. The Seattle Mariners outfielder checks in with the number one rated matchup on Batters-Box’s current season timeframe, along with nearly 75% arsenal coverage against Bradish’s full pitch mix.

Canzone has been on a serious heater lately, hitting .370 with a 1.285 OPS while posting 52% hard contact and a 20% barrel rate over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching.

On the other side, Bradish has been vulnerable to lefties, allowing 40% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate to his last 30 left handed hitters faced. Those hitters are producing a .339 xBA, .477 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA in that span.

With Canzone seeing it this well right now and the underlying matchup fully supporting it, the HRR prop at plus money feels like value. Take it down to +100.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SEAM, MASN

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Pirates fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

To piggieback off of Jaiman’s piece earlier today, there’s been a lot of chatter on social media, from Pittsburgh Pirates fans and baseball fans in general, that Paul Skenes is no longer a top 10 pitcher in the league.

Some of the numbers — like his 2.85 ERA, which is great for a Major League pitcher, but also the highest of his career — would suggest he has slipped. While others — like his 0.93 WHIP, which is the best of his career — would suggest he has not.

That ERA is 15th in the league. The WHIP is 5th. The Ks are also 5th. His Ks per nine innings stands at 4th. His walks and hits per innings pitched also stand at 5th.

So has Skenes slipped? Um, maybe? I guess if you go from the the best pitcher in baseball to simply in the mix for the best pitcher, is that technically slippage? What do you guys think watching him all year? Has he slipped?

Cast your vote, tell us in the comments, and we’ll be back soon with the results.

The Dodgers’ all-interleague homestand concludes this weekend, with the Baltimore Orioles coming to Los Angeles beginning Friday night. After a 2020 World Series rematch against Tampa Bay, this time it’s a 1966 Fall Classic rematch at Dodger Stadium.

Roki Sasaki starts Friday night for the Dodgers.

Friday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Orioles
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Time: 7:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

The world’s biggest sporting event is underway across the continent and the sports vibes are elite. We’ve already seen some classic World Cup upsets with Spain unable to score against Cabo Verde. We saw a thriller between Netherlands and Japan that ended 2-2. But I think my favorite thing that has happened in the World Cup so far was visible at the only ballpark in the country that rivals Wrigley Field as Scottish fans descended on Fenway Park over the weekend creating an environment at a Rangers vs. Red Sox game in June that rivaled the postseason and reminded me of my experience at the World Baseball Classic in March.

The Red Sox made one of the best marketing decisions any baseball team has made in years when they decided to offer a Scotland kit Red Sox giveaway while the Scots were playing in Boston. The Scots might have shown up at Fenway Park anyway, but this ensured they would. And boy, did they ever show up:

Not only did they show up, they were ready to party. With all due respect to the midwest and tailgate culture, Boston isn’t exactly a slouch when it comes to drinking culture. Boston bars indicated they were well-stocked, having ordered three times the inventory they normally anticipate for St. Patrick’s Day. The Scots drank the the bars dry:

Noelle Somers, chief operating officer at Hennessy’s Bar in central Boston, highlighted the scale of the phenomenon, stating that trade following the Scotland v Haiti match had tripled that of St Patrick’s Day.

She told the Boston Globe: “We’ve been here for over 30 years and we’ve never seen anything like it.”

The bar ran out of beer on Sunday night before being restocked on Monday morning. Another delivery is due on Thursday, ahead of the Scotland vs Morocco match on Friday evening.

Brewing company Sam Adams has also seen its Boston taproom running dry over the weekend as demand for its Boston lager was four times higher than during a holiday period.

The result was an incredible night at Fenway Park, and everyone understood the assignment. The Red Sox organist researched Scottish chants and songs before the game. Yes, you absolutely need to see the results:

The full stadium sing-a-long is an unrivaled experience, and filling up a baseball park with soccer fans turns out to be the perfect storm for a lot of full stadium sing-a-longs. I’m talking about more than “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” A couple of seasons ago when the Cubs looked like they might almost make it to the playoffs, but were flirting with elimination late in the season the DJ at Wrigley Field started playing Bon Jovi’s “Livin’ on a Prayer” late in games. Every now and again everyone would sing along. It was great. Fenway already has “Sweet Caroline” in the eighth inning, but on Sunday night they also had this:

The Scots were pretty clearly cheering for the home team, but the atmosphere was so electric, even the Rangers were appreciative of it:

Baseball needs more of this. I hope other host cities have giveaways planned to include their guests at the ballpark in similar ways during the World Cup. If they don’t already, they would be well-served to do it immediately. I can’t imagine there’s a Scot alive who won’t be a Red Sox fan for life after all of that.

Detroit Tigers (30-43) vs. Houston Astros (34-41)

Time/Place: 2:10 p.m., Daikin Park
SB Nation Site: The Crawfish Boxes
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Casey Mize (2-3, 2.27 ERA) vs. RHP Peter Lambert (5-4, 3.47 ERA)

This Red Sox season has been an exercise in one-step-forward-two-steps-back. And that rubric doesn’t just apply to the game-to-game results, but to the injuries as well. How many times have we gone from “minor injury, hopes to avoid the IL,” to “recovery progressing, hopes to begin rehab assignment soon,” to “RIP, gone but not forgotten”? Roman Anthony has already gone through that cycle, but we may have gotten good news recently. Anthony underwent yet another MRI this week — but this one was apparently one of the good MRIs, performed just to check in on how things are going. ““Everything looked good, healing properly,” Chad Tracy said. Of course we still don’t have any timeline on his return, but hey, we’ll take what we can get. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)

We also got some promising news on Garrett Crochet, which came with a bit more specifics. He’s been cleared to start some “light throwing of weighted plyometric balls, which, y’know, aren’t the kind of balls they use in MLB, but they’re better than no balls at all. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

Unfortunately, we may have reached the point where it’s too late for Anthony and Crochet to save the season. And if that’s the case, we can blame the Sox’ performance against the rest of the AL East. “The Sox have a horrendous 6-15 mark against divisional opponents – the second-worst record by any AL team within its own division. (Only the Tigers, with a 6-16 mark against the AL Central, had an inferior mark.)” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

The primary reason why the season may already be over is, of course, the Sox’ terrible offense. With so many individual hitters struggling, we’re starting to see something interesting at Fenway Park: private hitting instructors who do not work for the team. While the optics of this aren’t great, it’s not necessarily something novel. “At this level, players have had a lot of coaches throughout their careers. When they get to this level, there’s a lot of people who have helped them have success,” says Sox interim hitting coach John Soteropulos. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

And with the season slipping away, it’s no surprise that the Red Sox are involved in so much trade speculation. ESPN ranked the top-25 trade candidates for the upcoming deadline and included 4 Sox players on the list, led by Aroldis Chapman at number 8. (Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, ESPN)

But despite all the trade chatter — and the, uh, standings — CBO Craig Breslow isn’t yet prepared to surrender the ship. Yesterday he appeared on the NESN pregame show and said he was “absolutely not” giving up on the season yet. “Right now, given we’ve got six weeks or so before the deadline, our focus is on doing everything we can to give ourselves a chance to win the game each night.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

But while Breslow is probably prudent to wait for as long as he can before going into sell-mode, the fact that the only noise at Fenway is being made by traveling Scottish fans in town for the Wold Cup tells you all you need to know about the direction of this season. (Justin Turpin, WEEI)

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Boston Red Sox starter Jake Bennett draws a tough matchup tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays lineup that profiles extremely well against his pitch mix, making his Over 2.5 earned runs my favorite play of the night.

Find out more in my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 17. 

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Jake Bennett Over 2.5 earned runs (-120)

Jake Bennett owns a 5.28 ERA through three starts and has struggled to miss barrels, allowing hard contact at a 42.3% clip.

That sets up poorly against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that has handled his primary mix of four-seamers, sinkers, and changeups well this season — batting .269 with a .420 slugging percentage against that mix.

The matchup points to another difficult outing for Bennett. I'd play Over 2.5 earned runs allowed down to -130.

COVERS INTEL:Toronto owns a 114 wRC+ against Bennett’s pitch mix since June 1.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

The batter who profiles best against Bennett is Kazuma Okamoto, who owns a .324 average and a .622 slug-rate against Bennett’s pitch mix.

Since I anticipate a busy day on the base paths for Blue Jays batters, I’ll take Over 0.5 RBI for Okamoto. He’s eclipsed this total in four of his last five games.

Davis Schneider is red hot at the plate with four hits in his last three games since being recalled, including back-to-back games with a home run.

Additionally, he profiles well against Bennett, with a high barrel rate and a solid batting average against the sinker and changeup, two of his most-used pitches.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP

• Jake Bennett Over 2.5 earned runs
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 RBI
• Davis Schneider Over 0.5 hits

Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+425)

As mentioned, Okamoto profiles extremely well against Bennett, owning a 57.7% hard-hit rate against his primary pitch mix.

The Boston rookie doesn't generate much swing-and-miss, which should allow Okamoto plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play with authority.

There is some risk here, however. Bennett generates plenty of topped contact and ground balls, which can suppress home-run production. That's why I'm limiting this to a half-unit wager despite the strong matchup.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Boston -130
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info

Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather

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On the last episode of Dragon Ball: Braves, the Atlanta Braves made a curious decision to start a baseball game in the middle of a downpour. In their efforts to predict the weather, the weather proved to be, in fact, unpredictable. While they were treated to Drake Baldwin hitting the longest home run in Major League Baseball so far this season, it cost them Michael Harris II’s back acting up on him again and three runs given up by Grant Holmes while he admirably tried to pitch through the atrocious conditions.

With the rain being unrelenting, the teams were forced to stop play. Despite an admirable effort from the grounds crew at Truist Park, the rain had done its job and the field was deemed unplayable for the night. So now here we are, just a few hours later and it’s time to pick up where we left off in the bottom of the second inning with Atlanta down 3-2 to San Francisco.

Will the Braves take this as an opportunity to pull off yet another come-from-behind victory? Will the Giants and their beleaguered bullpen be able to hold the Braves at bay? Can Atlanta’s bullpen succeed in dry conditions when Grant Holmes faltered in a downpour? We’re about to find out!

UPDATE [1:56 p.m ET]: James Karinchak is reportedly going to be on the mound once it’s Atlanta’s turn to pitch in the top of the third. The GIants are going with Robbie Ray.

The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up their short homestand vs the San Diego Padres Wednesday afternoon. Kyle Leahy will start for the Cardinals while the Padres will send Bradgley Rodriguez to the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm at Busch Stadium.