BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 28: Jayson Tatum #0 and Paul George #13 of the Boston Celtics pose for photos during Boston Celtics Media Day at Auerbach Center on September 28, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Celtics basketball, how we’ve missed you. It’s been a long, strange offseason, so it feels good to turn the page and learn about a new team and, maybe more fittingly, a new era.
I love preseason because it’s the first real look at where the coaching staff’s heads are at, and who is standing out in training camp. It’s also a tryout for some to show growth or earn their spot.
You can usually get a feel for who’s going to be important, but it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt. Last preseason, Chris Boucher started all four games, then appeared in only nine regular season games before being traded. Xavier Tillman had a similar fate.
So with a dash of skepticism and a loose promise not to overreact, there’s still a lot to learn as the Celtics visit the Cavaliers for game one of the preseason.
BOSTON, MA – FEBRUARY 6: Payton Pritchard #11, Sam Hauser #30 and Baylor Scheierman #55 of the Boston Celtics celebrates during the game against the Miami Heat on February 6, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Who gets the start?
This is one of the more interesting big-picture questions of the season.
Joe Mazzulla recently said three or four starters are etched in stone. That’s slightly cryptic, but we can confidently assume Derrick White, Paul George and Jayson Tatum are the obvious three.
My anticipated starting unit has Payton Pritchard and Neemias Queta rounding out the five. But if only four are locked in, there are two ways to read it. One is that Pritchard is the fourth, and center becomes a matchup call between Queta and Mitchell Robinson. The other is that the center spot is settled, and they value Pritchard more in his bench role.
This game against Cleveland could reveal who that fourth starter is, and it may also tell us what they’re searching for in the fifth spot.
Are they targeting spot-up shooting, defensive activity, playmaking? Even if the answer isn’t permanent, we’ll see who gets the first crack at it, and what type of skills they want to round out the group.
A leap in the wing room?
On a similar note, a breakout from one of the Celtics’ wings could help the lineup take shape.
There is a lot of room in the rotation for change. As we saw last season, Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez were interchangeable. All of them had stretches as a starter or key rotation piece. This year could bring more of the same, but maybe someone breaks through.
Walsh could fulfill his goal of developing into a more versatile offensive player. He spoke at Summer League about wanting to be the answer in any situation, rather than someone who gets subbed out when the team needs a bucket.
Scheierman might carry a strong training camp into the preseason. His blend of shotmaking and ball handling makes him arguably the most natural offensive fit of the three next to their best players.
Boston, MA – March 4: Charlotte Hornets center Ryan Kalkbrenner dunks between Boston Celtics guards Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez in the third quarter. The Celtics played the Hornets at TD Garden on March 4, 2026. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
A sophomore leap from Gonzalez isn’t out of the question either. Between Summer League and the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers, he’s had the most real game experience of the group over the last few months.
Which of the three do we see first, and does anyone separate from the others? One of them could even start. If it’s not Pritchard in the first five, any of them makes sense.
Breaking through means getting past Sam Hauser, though. He was counted on more consistently than all three last season and held the fifth starter spot in the playoffs. I’ll be interested to see if that remains the case, or if one of them manages to leapfrog him on the depth chart.
Does the defense feel any different?
Something I wrote about this summer was that the Celtics’ strong defensive rating last season was built more on managing their opponents’ shot profile than on forcing turnovers.
They finished fourth in defensive rating while ranking 29th in opponent turnovers. That’s something to feel good about. They were already elite without forcing turnovers, so closing that gap could push them toward the best defense in the league.
They have the personnel to make takeaways a priority, and the additions of George and Robinson should only help.
What I’m looking for is whether the defense feels different. Do they let their bigs swap some drop coverage for switches or blitzes in the pick and roll? Will we see aggressive nail help and activity in the passing lanes from Tatum and George? Are Gonzalez and Walsh unleashed as point-of-attack defenders, tasked with creating chaos?
Turnover numbers will tell some of the story, but you can see the signs of an aggressive defense forming quickly. With Robinson and Queta (and Derrick White), they have protection on the back line that should allow them to take calculated risks. Additional influence over the possession battle would make them even more dangerous, since they’re typically very good at limiting their own turnovers.
Cleveland is a good first test, giving us some real tape on how they handle two strong creators in James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
SAN DIEGO — After yet another businesslike victory in a season full of them, the Milwaukee Brewers celebrated their National League Division Series clincher inside Petco Park amid beer showers, wafting cigar smoke and countless bottles of sparkling wine individually labeled with the names of various Wisconsin cities.
The Brewers are thrilled to head home with another playoff series victory during the best stretch in team history — but they also know the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to meet them in Milwaukee.
A year after the Brewers did not appear to be ready to meet the challenge posed by the intimidating World Series champions while getting unceremoniously swept out of the NL Championship Series, this team is certain it can do better in the rematch.
The Brewers’ tense NLDS win over the San Diego Padres — four games decided by five combined runs — only underlined their growing confidence in their ability to excel in October and to truly fight for this team’s first championship.
“I think we have a different type of confidence and belief in ourselves together as a team,” said center fielder Garrett Mitchell, the Game 4 hero with his bat and glove. “It’s just like a quiet, subtle confidence. It’s not showboaty. It’s just everyone who’s in this clubhouse, from the front office to the staff, everyone believes. ... I also think it’s a year difference. Guys are continuing to mature. We’re all excited to go out and compete and try to get it done.”
With their eighth playoff appearance in the past nine seasons off to a strong start, the Brewers are gradually knocking down the remaining barriers to their ultimate goal.
This group ended Milwaukee’s 12-game road postseason losing streak since 2018 with the clincher in San Diego, executing nearly flawlessly in the process. The Brewers held the Padres to three hits and got timely hits of their own while playing exceptional defense and gradually draining the spirit from the normally frenzied Petco crowd.
“That team right there can beat anybody in baseball,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said of the Padres. “Nobody has a winning record on the road in the postseason — except maybe the Dodgers. It’s just not the way it is. The environments are so tough to play in. Yeah, so that was going to happen at some point if we keep banging on the postseason door.”
And while the Dodgers will be the biggest challenge they’ve faced, the Brewers have never been better positioned to break through.
They won a franchise-record 103 games in the regular season, topping the majors and increasing their win total for the fourth straight season while winning their fourth consecutive NL Central crown. Milwaukee then took down the 91-win Padres, who were arguably the majors’ best team in September while streaking to 19 wins in 22 games.
The Brewers won a competitive series between two teams with no World Series titles to show for 58 seasons of existence apiece. San Diego’s drought stretches on, but Milwaukee is eight wins away from ending its own.
The Dodgers are in the way, but the Brewers believe it’s finally their time.
“Tonight is about us, but tomorrow we’re making a plan,” Game 4 starter Robert Gasser said. “We’re trying to execute and figure out, ‘How do we go in and get two wins at home and head over to LA and take care of business there?’ We’ve played them well this year. We saw them last year in the NLCS, but we’ve got all hands on deck, and we’re ready to go.”
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - MAY 30: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder handles the ball against Stephon Castle #5 of the San Antonio Spurs during Game Seven of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on May 30, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When those TV ads for personal injury attorneys run on TV (which is constantly), you will often see a disclaimer that “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Which is true, especially because the ads only tout the attorney’s big successes, not the losses.
How is this relevant to Pounding the Rock readers? Because this is my annual Overs and Unders predictions for the NBA’s Western Conference – a tradition unlike any other. Oh wait, that’s the Masters.
Anyway, the attorney disclaimer is especially appropriate because (a) I am an attorney (non-personal injury division) and (b) I somehow went 11-4 on my preseason over/under predictions for the 2025-26 season. Yes, 11 wins and only 4 losses. Hence – “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Note that I did not mention my record in prior seasons. Suffice it say those prior predictions were not as good as 11 and 4.
My biggest win last season was on the Vegas preseason prediction for the Spurs. Vegas said 43.5 wins, my prediction was “OVER, OVER, OVER”, and the Spurs won 62. So I went 11-4 overall and nailed the most important prediction.
But that was last season, and I am not one to rest on my laurels. Indeed, I don’t believe I own any laurels, don’t know what they are, and I don’t know how or where or why one would rest on them. Instead, I will wade into the breach once again and try to repeat last season’s successes (as will the Spurs).
Last season’s preseason article started with teams at the top of the conference and went down.. This season I will flip that and start with the lousy teams, ending with the good ones, thereby cleverly leaving the Spurs until the end. Because the Spurs are finally once again good. Very good.
I am adding one thing: how close the 2025-26 Vegas preseason prediction was to each team’s final win total. I will call that HDVD – How Did Vegas Do?
Remember that my past success is not a guarantee of future results. Especially because I have asked some basketball minds that I respect to weigh in on their favorite teams — you can expect some perhaps unjustified fan optimism. And away we go, starting with the dregs of the Western Conference:
Sacramento Kings
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted the Kings would win 35.5 games, a total whiff by the “smart guys”. The Kings won only 22.
Despite great fans, this is a very sorry franchise. At least the Clippers have taken over the spot for saddest NBA franchise. Vegas predicts that this year’s Kings will win 21.5 games, even less than last season’s disaster. Long-suffering fan Kings fan Brent weighed in with this:
“The 21.5 O/U number for the Kings is patently offensive—much like the Kings’ defense. On paper, the Kings have the pieces to blow past 22 wins. On the court, history suggests the Kings will try to win 40 games, but will win exactly 21 games, and somehow not even get a top 3 draft pick in return. It seems like a decade ago that the Kings were the 3 seed in the West, but it seems like yesterday that Robert Horry buried that 3 . As a loyal Kings fan, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season with the promise of Darius Acuff, Jr. I’ll take the over.”
New Orleans Pelicans
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Pelicans would win 30.5 games in 2025-26, but they couldn’t even reach that low goal, winning only 26.
This year, Vegas has the Pelicans winning 28.5 games. Like the Kings, another sorry franchise, though the food is better. Do you remember when people thought Zion Williamson would be a true force in the league? Maybe he should play in a city where the food isn’t so good. I have New Orleans as UNDER, again, as does New Orleans resident Steve:
“Wins and losses are less important than proving Bill Simmons’ speculation about the Pels leaving NOLA wrong. Just a few years ago, the Pels were a promising team that was a fun watch with a growing fan base. Now, it’s hard to see a path to the playoffs for the Pels in a stacked conference. I’ll take the under on 28.5 wins but the over on Simmons being wrong and the Pels staying in NOLA.”
Memphis Grizzlies
HDVD — Vegas’s worst over-confident prediction last season. Predicted to win 40.5 wins, the Grizzlies won only 25.
Vegas may have learned its lesson and now has the Grizz winning only 28.5. Memphis grew tired of tying their future to the mercurial Ja Morant, shipping him to Portland after the season. This was after trading Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah during the season. The new projected starting lineup: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jerami Grant, Cameron Boozer, and Zach Edey.
That line-up sounds a lot like an UNDER to me.
Los Angeles Clippers
HDVD — Another over-confident Vegas pick: Predicted to win 48.5 wins in 2025-26, the Clips limped in with 42 wins, and then lost to the Warriors in the Play-In round. Of course, news then got worse.
Clippers are the third team that Vegas has at 28.5 wins for this season. That prediction may be the high point for the next four or five years as the Clippers will both lose many games and have already lost all their draft picks for the next five years.The NBA may have done Steve Ballmer a favor by barring him from the arena for a year. I think the overall bad vibes on the team will lead to an UNDER, but Clips fan Adam has an optimistic take for this season:
“OVER. Sure our future has been completely destroyed, but that didn’t affect this year. After an extremely long off season and finally turning the page on trading our future for one Western Conference Finals, Ty Lue has a team with which he typically excels and does have several former All-Stars to utilize. I can see this team fighting for a Play-In spot, but unfortunately our league leading streak of winning seasons is in serious jeopardy. The life of a Clippers fan!”
Dallas Mavericks
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Mavs would win 39.5 games last season, missing badly as the Mavs won only 26 times.
Vegas has Mavs improving to 35.5 wins. Mavs fan Dylan has higher hopes than that:
“I’ll take the over on 35.5. Dallas won 26 games last year, but this team is bigger, longer, and healthier. Dereck Lively II anchors the defense when he’s right (opponents shot 58.5% at the rim against him as a rookie, a mark between Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo), and Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama, and Zaccharie Risacher add length, plus real shooting, since Aldama and Risacher both shot 35% or better from three last year. Cooper Flagg, now 6’10” barefoot by his own account, is set up for a big second-year leap, and Kyrie Irving is a year and a half removed from his ACL tear. It all hinges on health, but I like Dallas to clear 35.5.”
Utah Jazz
HDVD — The Jazz were predicted to be bad with 19.5 wins, and they were bad, but just not quite as bad as predicted, with 22 wins.
Vegas predicts significant improvement for the Jazz, up to 36.5 wins. I think they will exceed that, so I have OVER. Salt Lake City’s own Steve agrees:
“First: In Danny We Trust
Second: We aren’t trying to tank! Always a big plus when trying to win!
I think we are a 42+ game winner this year. The team is constructed much better and we have more depth than before.
Darryn Peterson is incredible. I watched him live in a couple of summer games and he can flat out play. He is one of the purest shooters I’ve seen. Expect mistakes, but he is a huge boost to the offense.
The “it factor” is that the players love the owner Ryan Smith. He treats them great, he isn’t in it for the personal fame, and the Jazz are a central part of his grand design to build up the state of Utah.“
Portland Trail Blazers
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted 34.5 wins. Blazers easily surpassed that, with a winning record at 42 – 40.
Vegas predicts the Blazers will beat that this year with 43.5 wins. Blazers fan Steve takes the UNDER:
“I’ve got the Blazers at 42 wins this year. They have more overall talent than last year, but I just hate how this roster fits together. After a decade of limiting themselves by pairing Lillard with another undersized guard that can’t defend, their big offseason move is putting an even older and slower (and post-injury) Lillard with Ja Morant? Something, something… definition of insanity. At least CJ McCollum could shoot!”
Golden State Warriors
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Ws to win a solid 45.5 games, but injuries to Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry made that impossible. Warriors finished at 37-45.
Vegas has the Warriors below .500 again this year with 39.5 wins. Former college roommate Corey thinks that is an accurate assessment, but leans under:
“Depends when Jimmy Butler gets back. With Jimmy, they’ll be over .500. Without him, they’ll be under .500. Like I said, 39.5 sounds about right. Those Las Vegas guys know their [profanity deleted].”
Phoenix Suns
HDVD — The Suns’ 45 wins vastly exceeded the Vegas prediction on 31.5 wins. Indeed, that was the second biggest over-performance by any team in the conference. We all know which had team had the biggest.
Vegas has the Suns dropping back to 39.5 wins this year. One projection I read said this: “Center Mark Williams is expected to miss roughly the first four months following labrum surgery, opening early minutes for players like Khaman Maluach.” If you are like me, you have never heard of (and cannot pronounce) Maluach. That alone makes the Suns an UNDER for me. Best friend Dave, who lives in Tucson, concurs:
“The Suns are setting on Devin Booker, who has been a high-level scorer his entire career…all of it in Phoenix. The frontcourt isn’t strong enough. The addition of Luke Kennard gives them another shooter to go along with Book and Colin Gillespie. Did they need another shooter? Suns were a nice surprise last year. This year, I say no. Under 39.5 wins.”
Los Angeles Lakers
HDVD — The 2025-26 Lakers outperformed the Vegas prediction of 47.5 win with a surprising 53 – 29 record. They then overcame a bunch of injuries to knock off the Rockets in the first round, before getting swept by OKC in a series that was not as close as 4 – 0 would indicate.
This year Vegas has the Lakers sliding back a bit — good-bye Lebron — to 45.5 wins. Always optimistic Lakers fan Mike disagrees with Vegas:
“Don’t short the Lakers this year boys. Luka and his merry band of young shooters, defenders, rim runners and one very large shot blocker in the middle. I like 50 wins and a 3/4 seed.”
Yup, that is an OVER from Mike. (I think that is Mike’s 27th consecutive “over” for the Lakers.)
Houston Rockets
HDVD — The Rockets 52 wins was slightly less than the 55.5 wins that Vegas projected.
Despite the return of point guard Fred VanVleet, the Rockets are predicted to fall back to 46.5 wins this season. Perhaps Vegas believes that the ageless Kevin Durant will finally start showing his age? If not, having an actual point guard should help the offense, though the defense and rebounding may drop a bit. All in all, I think 46.5 wins underestimates the Rockets. OVER.
Denver Nuggets
HDVD — The best prediction by Vegas last season. The Nuggets’ win over the Spurs in the last game of the regular season put them at 54 wins, right in line with the Vegas prediction of 53.5.
This year, Vegas predicts that the Nuggets will regress a bit to 48.5 games. That regression is probably based on health more than talent because the team still has Jokic, Gordon and Murray, and picked up ex-Spur DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan can still get buckets with the best of them (so long as those buckets, are twos, not threes). Hey, I see the Nuggets also picked up Lonnie Walker IV! I still root for that guy, now in his eighth (!!) year in the NBA. Let’s go OVER on the Nuggets and their two ex-Spurs.
And let’s also root for more Joker passes like this one:
HDVD — Another good prediction by Vegas last season. The Wolves won 49 games, just missing the 50.5 Vegas prediction..
This season’s prediction is similar: 48.5 games. The big news in Minnesota is the team’s pick-up of LeMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, giving up Naz Reid, Julius Randle and ex-Spur Kyle Anderson. Vegas presumably looked at all the changes, threw up its hands, and said “How many games did they win last year? Go with that.” I did something similar — flipped a coin and it came up “tails”. UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder
HDVD — At the start of last season, the consensus was that OKC was an unstoppable juggernaut. Vegas had the Thunder winning 62.5 games, and they beat that with 64 wins — an outstanding season. Happily ,four of the Thunder’s regular season losses were to one team, and that same team then beat the Thunder four more times in the playoffs. Put another way, the Spurs provided 8 of the Thunder’s total of 22 losses for the regular season and playoffs combined.
Vegas has OKC winning 60.5 games this season. OKC hopes Jalen Williams will be healthier this season, and that 7’3″ rookie Aday Mara can stand up to Victor Wembanyama better than Chet Holmgren did in the playoffs. The Thunder need both things to happen, because OKC surrendered valuable rotation guys Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in the off-season. For me, losing those guys pushes OKC just slightly below 60.5. I have the Thunder as a very slight UNDER.
But the OKC Thunder are still the primary impediment to the Spurs’ quest for the crown.
San Antonio Spurs
HDVD — The Spurs absolutely crushed everyone’s expectations in 2025-2026, including but not limited to Vegas’s 43.5 win prediction. The Spurs’ 62-20 record meant they exceeded the projection by 18.5 “extra” wins — Vegas’s biggest miss of the year, by a lot.
The Vegas 2026-27 prediction for the Spurs is the same as the prediction for the Thunder — 60.5 wins. I don’t think the Spurs will match last season’s 18.5 game over-performance — though a 79 – 3 record would be even more joyous than last season. I am contractually required to say OVER, but this season I will go with just one OVER instead of OVER,OVER, OVER. Let’s bring it on home with a 63-19 record and the number one seed.
SACRAMENTO, CA - OCTOBER 5: Ziaire Williams #11 of the Los Angeles Lakers plays defense during the game against the Sacramento Kings during a 2026 NBA Preseason game on October 5, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
In the Los Angeles Lakers’ 127-103 win over the Sacramento Kings Monday night, head coach JJ Redick praised his team’s defense, particularly its ability to generate 27 turnovers. Helping key that effort defensively were Ziaire Williams and Matisse Thybulle, both of whom received a starting nod. Williams consistently pressed ball-handlers full-court and picked up a steal while Thybulle yielded two takeaways of his own. They were two of the nine different Lakers to record a steal against Sacramento.
Williams also added 13 points on 4-of-6 shooting (3-of-3 from deep) and Thybulle went 2-of-4 beyond the arc. Their play drew compliments from Luka Dončić, who seems quite happy to be playing alongside these defensive-minded wings.
“It felt great. I think we all had fun out there, especially Matisse and Ziaire. Just that beginning of the game, just starting, that’s contagious for everybody,” Dončić said after Monday’s win. “How they started the game was inspirational and the other guys came from the bench and it was amazing just to watch. They were having fun and sharing the ball. I think the whole team had fun today.”
If the Lakers are to be a formidable defensive unit this season, Williams and Thybulle will be integral to their success. One of them will presumably start alongside Dončić, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes and Walker Kessler, while the other will be a crucial reserve.
For both of them, being viable offensive players is imperative. Both have shown some knack as cutters throughout their respective careers but will need to hit 3s at a respectable clip to maximize their opportunity for playing time and boost Los Angeles’ defense. Williams is a career 32.2% outside shooter while Thybulle is at 34.9%. Thybulle must also stay healthy after playing a combined 45 games the past two seasons.
Dončić recognizes how much the Lakers will benefit if they can replicate performances like Monday’s.
“It was amazing. Like I said, it was contagious for everybody,” he said. “The way they started the game, the way they play defense using their hands, it’s one of the best that I’ve seen. Being teammates with them and going against them makes us better and makes them better. It’s just really fun to have them on the team.”
SURPRISE, ARIZONA - MARCH 20, 2026: Wilian Bormie #40 of the Texas Rangers throws a pitch during the fifth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium on March 20, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
One of the rites of the offseason is that, early on, we take a look at the players in the Texas Rangers’ organization who will have to be added to the 40 man roster this winter, or else be eligible to be selected by another team in the Rule 5 Draft. It is usually a lengthy post that talks about guys who are locks (or near-locks) to be added, guys who are potentially on the being-added bubble, guys who are longshots, and analyzes how likely a player who isn’t a lock to be added would be to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
I regret to inform you that’s not the case this year. The Rangers have few players who will be Rule 5 eligible who would get serious consideration for being added to the 40 man roster, and the likelihood of the Rangers losing a player in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason* would seem to be slight.
* The last time there was a lockout, in the 2021-22 offseason, they ended up canceling the Rule 5 Draft because of how little time there was between the end of the lockout and the beginning of the regular season. I would be willing to wager that we’ll see the same thing happen this time around…that said, we will assume that is is happening until they say it isn’t.
Let’s go over the Rule 5 rules. A player signed at age 18 or younger — in other words, most (but not all) high school draftees and undrafted free agents and international free agents — are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft five seasons after they signed if they are not added to a team’s 40 man roster. A player signed at age 19 or older — pretty much every college player, and a few high school and international players — is eligible to be selected after four seasons if they are not added to a team’s 40 man roster. If a player is selected in the Rule 5 Draft,* he has to stay on the major league roster for a full season and accumulate at least 90 days on the active roster before he can be sent to the minors on an optional assignment. Otherwise, the player goes on waivers and, if he clears waivers, has to be offered back to the original team at half of the Rule 5 fee.
* The Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, anyway. The rules are different for the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, but you don’t have to add a player to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft.
The upshot of this is that high schoolers signed in 2022 or earlier, and international free agents signed in 2022 or earlier, will be eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason if they are not added to the 40 man roster by November 17 of this year. College players signed in 2023 or earlier, as well as IFAs and high schoolers who were 19 or older when they signed, will also be eligible to be selected if they are not added to the 40 man roster.
The Rangers do not have many first-time eligibles this offseason. The Rangers did not have second or third round picks in 2023, due to signing Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom. Their first pick, Wyatt Langford, is already on the 40 man roster. Their fourth and fifth round picks, Skylar Hales and Alejandro Rosario, have been traded. Their sixth round pick, Caden Scarborough, was 18 when he signed, and is thus not Rule 5 eligible.
The best of the rest, as far as 2023 college picks go, are pitchers Izack Tiger, Paul Bonzagni, Josh Trentadue and Michael Trausch. Tiger has a great arm but can’t stay healthy, having thrown just 77.1 innings as a pro, including 27.1 innings with a 6.91 ERA between the ACL and high-A in 2026 after missing all of 2025. Bonzagni missed all of 2026 with an injury after pitching just 5 innings in 2025. Trausch is a reliever in low-A. Trentadue is a reliever in AA who put up a 5.65 ERA. None of them appear to be in danger of being selected.
The 2022 draft also featured missing second and third round picks. First rounder Kumar Rocker is already on the 40 man roster. Fourth rounder Brock Porter was Rule 5 eligible last year as a 19 year old high school draftee, went unselected, and after walking 60 in 76.1 innings in 2026, is almost certainly going be left exposed again this year. Fifth rounder Chandler Pollard didn’t hit in high-A this year. Sixth rounder Tommy Specht was released two years ago. Seventh rounder Luis Ramirez has spent the last two seasons on the injured list. 11th rounder Kohl Drake was traded.
In the 2022 international class, the Rangers’ two big signings were Anthony Gutierrez and Jose de Jesus. Gutierrez hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and his 2026 season ended in the second inning of Opening Day when he tore his ACL for Hub City. De Jesus was released in May of 2025.
The two players who are first time eligible who could possibly get some consideration — though still probably won’t be protected — are relief pitcher Ryan Lobus and first baseman Arturo Disla, each of whom was an undrafted free agent signed in 2023. Disla turns 26 this month and is a bat-only guy who was good but not great in his partial season at AA this year. Lobus is a 26 year old righthanded reliever who put up a 4.90 ERA and 4.24 FIP between AA and AAA in 2026, and whose stuff is fairly pedestrian. I doubt either is going to be added to the 40 man roster, or selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
There are a handful of players who are under team control through at least 2027 and who have been Rule 5 eligible previously, but most of them would not be in serious consideration for a roster spot. We mentioned Porter and Ramirez already. Ian Moller, Yeison Morrobel and Gleider Figuereo have all made it to AA, but none of them have shown enough to believe a team would carry them on the major league roster. Larson Kindreich missed all of 2026 with an injury. Thomas Ireland pitched for Frisco and Round Rock but is pretty much an organizational depth guy. Aaron Zavala finally spent a full season in AAA but didn’t hit much and is a corner outfielder with little defensive value.
Again, its possible that the Rangers will feel like they have 40 man roster spots to spare and feel, say, Morrobel has made enough progress and is young enough that they protect him rather than take the risk that someone chooses to take him, or Porter’s got enough potential that they don’t want to risk losing him now that he’s made it to AA. But it is more likely, I think, that none of this group gets added.
To the extent that the Rangers really have a tough call to make, it is on guys they will have to make the call on before the normal Rule 5 deadline, because it involves guys who will be minor league free agents at the end of the season. Players who were signed in 2020 become minor league free agents the day after the World Series ends.
The 2020 draft was only five rounds because of the pandemic, and the only player from that draft class still in the organization who isn’t on the 40 man roster is pitcher Dylan MacLean, who would not seem to be a candidate for a 40 man roster spot. The Rangers also signed that year, as undrafted free agents, Aidan Curry and D.J. McCarty. Curry has shown flashes, but is probably someone who, like Gavin Collyer last year, will be a priority to re-sign to a minor league deal rather than someone the Rangers will want to put on the 40 man roster.
The other notable UDFA signee from 2020 was Josh Stephan, who was traded to the Blue Jays in the Josh Smith/Adam Macko trade a couple of months ago. Stephan was almost certainly going to be allow to become a free agent, though I imagine the Rangers will have interest in bringing him back on a minor league deal, assuming the Jays don’t roster him.
The Rangers did trade for 2020 draftees Dane Acker and Trevor Hauver, and Acker has shown promise at times, but hasn’t been healthy and was terrible in the limited amount of time he spent on the Round Rock active roster this year.
Finally, we have international signees Wilian Bormie and Bryan Magdaleno, a pair of relievers who are slated to become free agents this winter.
Magdaleno was Rule 5 eligible after both 2024 and 2025. There was some unhappiness over Magdaleno being left exposed in 2024, as he had put up 1 .27 ERA in 42.2 innings, though mostly in low-A, with 68 Ks, 21 walks and just 19 hits. After going unselected, Magdaleno was terrible in Frisco in 2025, then bounced back with a solid, if unspectacular, 2026 season that saw him put up a 3.05 ERA in 56 innings, though with 38 walks against 77 Ks.
Magdaleno turns 26 in February. He’s a lefty, which is nice, but he has struggled to throw strikes, and the Rangers kept him in Frisco all year rather than sending him to Round Rock. He’s a possibility to be added, I guess, but I imagine he’s not getting a major league deal from anyone, and Texas will try to bring him back on a minor league deal if they want to keep him around.
If the Rangers add anyone, I suspect it would be Bormie. The righthander turns 26 in April, and has a quality fastball and slider but (as is often the case with these fringy reliever types) struggles with command. Bormie split the season between AA and AAA, and per Statcast, while at AAA, averaged 98 mph on his fastball. In 49 appearances covering 58.2 innings roughly evenly split between Frisco and Round Rock, he struck out 72, walked 31 and put up a 2.61 ERA, with his ERA being below 3 at both levels.
However, Bormie’s peripherals suffered once he got to AAA. His K rate at AA was 33.6% but was just 24.1% at AAA, while his walk rate went from 9.2% at AA to 15.0% at AAA. The result was a 4.97 FIP and 4.72 xERA in his 29 innings at AAA.
The Rangers faced a similar decision last offseason with Gavin Collyer, who they opted to let enter free agency and then re-signed to a minor league deal. Texas could go the same route with Bormie, betting that no team is going to offer him a major league deal (or a more lucrative minor league deal), or they could decide that there’s room on the 40 to carry him for the time being and eliminate any risk of losing him.
So that’s it. Not much excitement for us, I don’t think, in the run up to November 17. Maybe next year…
It’s now confirmed that, despite not making the team out of camp, Jacob Fowler will start for the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night against the Nashville Predators. In a weird twist of fate, Fowler will play the game he probably would have played had he not been sent back down to the Laval Rocket. While the youngster had a good training camp, veteran Samuel Montembeault bounced back from a dreadful season, forcing the organization to keep him as the backup.
Unfortunately for the Becancour native, however, he sustained an injury at practice on Wednesday, which ruled him out for Thursday’s tilt. Habs VP of communications Chantal Machabee told the media the netminder would meet with doctors Thursday night, and the team will provide an update after that.
Fowler has played two games in the AHL this season and shone brightly, allowing only three goals in 120 minutes, for a 1.53 goals-against average and a .945 save percentage. Last season, the Florida native played 17 games with the Canadiens and posted a 9-6-2 record, a 2.43 GAA, and a .908 SV.
The goaltender won’t be the only one making his debut, as Adam Engstrom will enter the lineup, and Jayden Struble will be scratched. The Swede will likely join the third pairing alongside Arber Xhekaj. Don’t read too much into the fact that Struble is the one making way; coach Martin St-Louis said he was coming out of the lineup because someone had to make room for Engstrom. After the youngster sat the first three games, it made sense to let him back on the ice.
St-Louis didn’t give an update on what his lines will look like, but it stands to reason that Zachary Bolduc should get a chance in the top six after Kirby Dach failed to impress in his audition to fill in for Ivan Demidov on Tuesday. Oliver Kapanen did not take part in the optional skate, and there was no new information on his health, suggesting Florian Xhekaj will be in the lineup for a second game in a row.
During this off-season, former Buffalo Sabres forward Victor Olofsson reunited with the Vegas Golden Knights on a one-year, $1,638,330 contract in free agency. This was after he had 13 goals and 31 points in 78 games split between the Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames last season.
Now, after a pretty quiet 2025-26 campaign, the former Sabres forward is having a strong start to his second stint with the Golden Knights.
In four games so far this season with Vegas, Olofsson has recorded four goals and one assist. This included the former Sabres forward scoring two goals in the Golden Knights' recent contest against the Seattle Kraken on Oct. 6.
With numbers like these, it is clear that Olofsson is impressing early on with Vegas. If the former Sabres forward keeps this kind of scoring up, he would end up being a very good value signing for the Golden Knights.
Olofsson was selected in the seventh round of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft by the Sabres, 181st overall. In 314 games over six seasons with the Sabres from 2018-19 to 2023-24, he posted 90 goals, 92 assists, and 182 points. This included him scoring a career-high 28 goals and posting 40 points in 75 games for Buffalo in 2022-23.
Former Colorado Avalanche goaltender Jonas Johansson got a brief return to the NHL this week.
Johansson was recalled by the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday after starting goaltender Linus Ullmark left Monday’s game with an undisclosed injury. The 31-year-old spent the night on Ottawa’s bench as Samuel Ersson made 31 saves in a 5-3 loss to the Detroit Red Wings.
His stay in the NHL didn’t last long. Johansson was reassigned to AHL Belleville on Wednesday, suggesting Ullmark’s injury may not be as serious as initially feared. At the very least, Ullmark appears likely to back up Ersson when Ottawa faces the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday, with a return to the crease also possible.
Star defenseman Cale Makar following a 6-1 win over the St. Louis Blues on October 3.
For Johansson, it was a quick trip back to the NHL after putting together a solid start to the season in Belleville. He is 1-1 with a 2.92 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage in two appearances.
Johansson is no stranger to the NHL, though his results at the highest level have been inconsistent. He spent the last three seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning, going 32-23-10 with a 3.26 goals-against average and a save percentage below .900 during that span.
Before his time in Tampa Bay, Johansson spent parts of three seasons with the Avalanche and their AHL affiliate, the Colorado Eagles. He went 10-3-2 in 15 NHL appearances with Colorado, posting a 2.63 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage.
The Avalanche originally acquired Johansson after he was drafted 61st overall by the Buffalo Sabres in the 2014 NHL Draft. He also spent time in the Sabres organization before eventually finding his way to Colorado.
Johansson’s latest NHL stint may have lasted only one game, but for a goaltender trying to work his way back into the league, even a short recall is a reminder that opportunities can come quickly.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 07: Manager Dave Roberts celebrates defeating the Atlanta Braves in game four of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 07, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Wednesday’s win was also the 72nd career postseason win for Roberts, surpassing Tony La Russa for second-most in MLB history.
“It’s special,” Roberts said on Monday night in Atlanta. “I have a lot of respect for Tony and the managers that have done what I’m doing; they’ve done it for a long time.”
Roberts is now a dozen wins behind Joe Torre for the most postseason wins ever.
Roberts has done all this in 11 seasons at the helm of the Dodgers, and his 11th season isn’t finished yet. Torre managed a total of 29 seasons in the majors, though 76 of his 84 postseason wins came in his dozen years with the New York Yankees.
Modern managers have more opportunities to amass postseason wins, with both the wild card round and Division Series. Plus, League Championship Series before 1985 were only best-of-5 instead of best-of-7, making in harder for earlier managers to pile up the October victories. So here is every MLB manager with at least 30 postseason wins, broken down by series.
Manager
Postseason wins
World Series
LCS
Division Series
Wild Card
Joe Torre
84
21
29
34
Dave Roberts
72
16
24
27
5
Tony La Russa
71
13
34
24
Bobby Cox
67
11
30
26
Dusty Baker
57
9
21
25
2
Bruce Bochy
57
16
20
17
4
Terry Francona
44
11
15
16
2
Jim Leyland
44
5
16
23
Casey Stengel
37
37
A.J. Hinch
36
7
9
15
5
Sparky Anderson
34
16
18
Joe Maddon
32
5
9
16
2
Tommy Lasorda
31
12
16
3
Joe McCarthy
30
30
All of Casey Stengel’s 37 wins came in the World Series, and the same for Joe McCarthy’s 30 wins in the Fall Classic.
If we look at a more modern era, since the League Championship Series has been around since 1969, here are the most postseason wins in just the World Series and LCS combined:
ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 07: Los Angeles shortstop Mookie Betts (50) reacts following the conclusion of the NLDS game 4 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves on October 7th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Guardians 9, White Sox 3 (BOX SCORE) (CHW leads 2-1)
Jo Adell struck out three times in game 1 of this series, but it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. He had a mammoth game on Wednesday, driving in three runs with a triple and showing exactly why the Guardians went and got him at the deadline. His three-bagger along with another three-bagger from Jose Ramirez kept the Guardians out in front and extended their season by at least one more game as the White Sox look to put it away at home tonight at 8:00.
It truly was great seeing Chris Sale deal for at least the first portion of his outing Tuesday, even until Playoff Kiké Hernandez emerged and took him out of the park. On Wednesday, the Braves sure looked like they were going to make this series even more interesting with a run in the first inning, as they also put the pressure on Tyler Glasnow with walks and got to the bullpen in the fifth. Their own Tyler (Mahle) pitched 6 1/3 solid innings, but then Andy Pages put the game – and the series – away in the seventh. I keep seeing “this lockout going to hit hard if the Dodgers win the Series again” and I honestly think people saying that are kind of right.
Happy Yankees elimination day to you and yours. There are 2009 reasons to love the result of this series, but you also can’t help but wonder how good the Red Sox would have done against this dynamic Tampa pitching staff. Ryan Vilade and Victor Mesa. Jr., though, did what the Sox couldn’t; they took Max Fried out of the short porch twice. And speaking of that short outfield, Anthony Volpe hit a routine pop fly… I mean, a double straight into a fan’s hands with two men on. The crowd erupted, as they thought the game had become a tie on a play that started with the Yankees’ win probability at just 24%. That was not the case, as it was ruled fan interference (and was likely going to come about six inches short of the wall anyway) and Spencer Jones would unceremoniously strike out in the next at-bat and leave Volpe stranded. Another postseason . Cue Big Papi:
Even though seeing Xander Boegarts, Nick Pivetta and Walker Buehler play in postseason ball was fun, I like this Brewers team that just finds ways to beat teams. That Misiorowski outing against the Dodgers is going to be appointment viewing. Jackson Chourio has struggled in October but his single to score Garrett Mitchell made a big difference. Aaron Ashby, who feels like he’s linked to the Red Sox due to how many rumor wires I’ve had to read in the last decade that involve him, coming out of the pen and pitching three hitless propelled the Brewers to an NLCS berth. They went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position Wednesday, but the win didn’t need to be flashy.
Cadillac driver rode between Malaysia and Singapore
Bottas says four-day trip helped him acclimatise
Valtteri Bottas has revealed the details of an incident-packed 418km bike ride including encounters with snakes, being chased by dogs and the eerie atmosphere of riding through the jungle at night as the Cadillac driver cycled between Malaysia and Singapore this week.
The 37-year-old is a keen cyclist and after a suggestion from his girlfriend, the Australian Olympic cyclist Tiffany Cromwell, he decided to take on the challenge of riding from the last round in Sepang near Kuala Lumpur to this weekend’s grand prix on the street circuit in Singapore, under his own steam.
It may sound like one of the made-up crazy facts, but cheese rolling is an actual sport in England. Citizens would gather at the top of an incline, send cheese wheels rolling down, and then run along with their cheese. The festival is held annually in Gloucester.
The Aztecs invented popcorn.
Originally, they used this as an ornament and was used in headdresses. This ornament would be used as a way to praise their god Tlaloc, the god of maize and fertility.
The praying mantis is the only insect that can turn its head.
Praying mantises are the only known insects able to rotate their heads from side to side.
The player he is now drove in the runs that sank the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday night and sent the Dodgers on their way to a 4-1 victory in Game 4 of their National League Division Series.
“Tonight,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, “Andy picked us up huge with a big hit.”
The best-of-five series over, Pages walked around the visiting clubhouse at Truist Field in a commemorative gray shirt that was soaked with cheap sparkling wine and beer. A pair of goggles covered his forehead.
“Special,” he said. “Special.”
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Andy Pages speaks to the media during a press conference after defeating the Atlanta Braves in game four of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, in Atlanta, Georgia. Getty Images
The journey here started a year ago, when Pages batted just .078 in the postseason. By Game 5 of the World Series, he was on the bench.
But Pages said he considers that World Series to be a wonderful memory, and not just because he made a game-saving catch in Game 7 as a defensive replacement.
“Because we won,” he said.
And rather than sulk over not starting the last three games of the World Series, Pages decided to use his failures to guide his training.
To be the kind of player who could be trusted in big games, Pages figured, he had to become a more selective hitter.
Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages (44) hits a two-run RBI-single during the seventh inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Atlanta. AP Photo/Colin Hubbard
Improving his eye by stepping in against an artificial pitching machine called a Trajekt Arc, Pages made his first All-Star team this year.
A broken hand in late August nearly derailed his season, but Pages did what he could to remain sharp. Before he was able to swing a bat again, Pages was stepping in against the Trajekt Arc again.
Pages returned for the final week of the regular season and batted .333, which is why what happened next was shocking.
In the first two games of the NLDS, Pages was a combined 0-for-7. What was worse than the numbers was how he looked. He looked lost. He looked desperate.
At this point, manager Dave Roberts acknowledged he was concerned.
However, Roberts said, “This is one of those things where I’m gonna continue to give Andy leash. I believe in him. I feel that for us to win the World Series this year, we’re gonna need him to be an active part of our team.”
Pages rewarded Roberts with a two-hit performance in the Dodgers’ Game 3 win.
In Game 4, Pages stepped into the batter’s box with the game on the line.
Seventh inning. Two outs. Bases loaded. Game tied, 1-1. Fireballer Ryan Suarez on the mound.
Pages worked a full count.
Suarez threw him a 99.7-mph fastball on the inner half of the plate and Pages banged it up the middle.
Two runs scored, and the Dodgers were suddenly ahead, 3-1.
Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages (44) celebrates after hitting a two-run RBI-single during the seventh inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, in Atlanta. AP Photo/Mike Stewart
“I was waiting for that moment,” Pages said. “I prepared a long time for that moment, and thanks to God I was able to get the result.”
He prepared for the moment. He dreamed of the moment.
But he didn’t try to visualize it.
“I think that when you think too much about something, it doesn’t happen,” he said. “You have to let things happen.”
Did he ever.
Redemption, evolution, call it whatever you want.
Pages finally had his October moment in the batter’s box.
This season is shaping up to be the most interesting Rookie of the Year race in a long time. The intense debate about who should have been the top pick in last June's NBA Draft now carries over to the Rookie of the Year race.
Will No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa in Washington win? Darryn Peterson in Utah? Cameron Boozer in Memphis? Or could we see Caleb Wilson in Chicago, Darius Acuff Jr. in Sacramento or Brayden Burries in Milwaukee rise up and grab the award? It's going to be a fascinating race, and we asked a panel of NBCSports.com writers to make their predictions. Here they are, but first, here are the current Rookie of the Year betting odds, via DraftKings:
Cameron Boozer +300 Darryn Peterson +330 Caleb Wilson +350 AJ Dybantsa +425 Darius Acuff +1200
NBA 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
Kurt Helin, NBC lead NBA writer: Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz
Darryn Peterson won me over at Summer League. It wasn't simply his explosive athleticism — something not displayed enough at Kansas for a variety of reasons — or his confidence. It was the variety in his game and the mental adjustments he was making — he figures things out quickly, and that processing speed will suit him in his NBA career.
There are good reasons to pick Cameron Boozer to win this award: He has the most polished game of the top rookies and, more importantly, he's going to have opportunities with the ball in his hands in Memphis. A lot of what I like about Peterson you also can see in AJ Dybantsa, but will he get enough opportunities on a team with Trae Young and contract-year Anthony Davis? The argument against Peterson also is the opportunity one, but I think his fit between Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George is more natural, and Peterson is going to get his chances. In a close race, the fact Peterson isn't just putting up numbers but should be doing so in meaningful games for a Jazz team ready to be back in the playoffs will put him over the top.
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy basketball lead analyst: Caleb Wilson, Chicago Bulls
Win-loss record rarely comes into the equation when evaluating Rookie of the Year options, as the early favorites are drafted to poorly performing teams. Individually, Wilson is in a position to flourish immediately. Sharing the court with Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis should give the former North Carolina forward ample opportunities to attack defenses in transition, and he didn't get to show his full skill set in college. AJ Dybantsa has some vets to share the offensive opportunities with in Washington, while Darryn Peterson isn't guaranteed to start immediately in Utah. Memphis' Cameron Boozer may be Wilson's biggest threat in the ROY race, and Sacramento's Darius Acuff Jr. is also in a spot to take on a prominent role immediately.
Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst: Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies
Boozer projects as the most "pro-ready" of the top picks and also the one with the most immediate path to usage. AJ Dybantsa and Darren Peterson step into teams with established high-usage veterans. Boozer has no such blocker - he should fill up the stat sheet and be a positive impact from the start.
No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer showed off his skillset in front of the @memgrizz faithful tonight!
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports betting analyst: Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz
This award is typically a proxy for volume, and there are reasonable concerns that Peterson may have a more limited role for the Jazz than his competitors. However, the Jazz are built to compete now and will likely have a top-10 offense, one in which Peterson won't be the focal point for opposing defenses. His skill set is a perfect complement to breakout point guard Keyonte George, and preseason press makes clear he has already won over his coach and veteran teammates like Jusuf Nurkić and Lauri Markkanen. I expect he'll earn a spot in the closing five for a team in the playoff hunt. That should be enough to take him over the top against his rivals in Memphis, Chicago and Washington, whose teams will play far fewer meaningful games in the spring.
This could be one of the most exciting races for Rookie of the Year in recent history. Obviously the top four picks are the favorites, though there are some others that could start and have an outside chance, such as Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. AJ Dybantsa was the top pick and should be a fluid scorer from day one, but there is a lot of competition for shots and touches in Washington. Darryn Peterson may run into the same issue in Utah. Caleb Wilson should make a two-way impact immediately and be a productive play finisher for Chicago, but usage concerns could pop up there as well.
To me, Boozer is the safest pick to win the award, but it isn't simply because there aren't other strong candidates. There is a real chance the offense runs through Boozer from day one, and he should be more efficient than the other top rookies. We've seen some spectacular rookies in recent years, and Boozer should be next in line. Again, it should be an exciting race with how talented this class is. Whoever ends up winning the award will have to impact the game in a multitude of ways and have a spectacular season. Boozer is the best choice.
This could be the last MLB season with a “qualifying offer,” as it’s termed in the labor agreement between owners and players. It’s possible an entirely new system will be created.
Until then, the current labor agreement runs through Dec. 1 and so qualifying offers will be made, and accepted or rejected, under that agreement.
We now know the amount of this year’s QO:
I reported last week that the qualifying number for this offseason would be about $23.1M. For those who want more exact, a source told me: $23.15M.
That’s up 5.1 percent from last year’s figure of $22.025 million.
Last year, 13 free agents were given a qualifying offer. Four of them accepted the offer: Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff and Shōta Imanaga. The Imanaga acceptance was said to have surprised the Cubs front office, but in the end, Imanaga produced reasonably well for the $22.025 million, making 32 starts, posting a 3.77 ERA and 1.096 WHIP, and 2.0 bWAR. The 35 home runs he allowed were a problem, of course, and whether Imanaga returns to the Cubs remains to be seen. He cannot get another QO, as a player can get only one.
There are three Cubs who might get qualifying offers this year, so let’s look at each of them.
The first is obvious. Seiya Suzuki has been an outstanding player for the Cubs for five seasons and had another productive year in 2026, batting .270/.368/.473 with 26 home runs and a career high 5.1 bWAR. His right field defense was improved both by the numbers and by the eye test.
Suzuki will get a QO and almost certainly reject it to test the open market. There have been reports that the Cubs aren’t likely to re-sign him, which would be a mistake. They should do everything possible to keep him.
Ian Happ, who’s also been a productive Cub for many years, will get a QO as well. Happ’s 2026 season wasn’t quite as good as his previous years, with a slash line of .218/.326/.412 with 24 home runs and 2.9 bWAR. The .218 figure was a career low. He did continue to play good defense and likely wins another Gold Glove, but the batting line was that low largely because he just stopped hitting left-handers. He batted just .145/.217/.267 in 144 PA against RHP and by season’s end, was being platooned.
The Cubs will still likely give Happ a QO. It’s not that much more than the $20 million he made in 2026. And he just might take it, trying to rebuild his value before hitting free agency again next winter — possibly under a new FA system.
The only other Cub who might rate a QO is Matthew Boyd. Boyd was injured for much of 2026, making only 22 starts, but was reasonably productive for much of the time he was healthy. His year was only worth 1.0 bWAR and he’ll turn 36 in February, so he probably should not be given a QO, in my view. There’s also a mutual option for $15 million for Boyd or a $2 million buyout, and the Cubs will almost certainly pay the buyout.
There aren’t any other Cubs pending free agents who would rate a QO. Some are ineligible because they received one in the past (Imanaga) or were traded during the year (Clay Holmes, David Peterson, among others). As a reminder, teams have until five days after the World Series ends to extend a QO, and players then have about 10 days (the date will be officially set later) to decide whether or not to accept.
Of Suzuki, Happ and Boyd, who would you give a qualifying offer?
