When the Mets sat at 10-21 as the calendar flipped from April to May, they were at rock bottom.
New York was fresh off a 12-game losing streak, with the end of it overlapping with a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals that led to loud questions about manager Carlos Mendoza's job as the club boarded its flight for a nine-game road trip -- questions that were at least temporarily put to rest soon after by president of baseball operations David Stearns.
The West Coast jaunt started out in promising fashion, with New York going 5-2 to open it. But two listless losses to the Diamondbacks capped the trip, with the Mets mustering just two runs total in those defeats.
While the Mets have played a tick above .500 since bottoming out at 10-21, they need to turn it on if they hope to make anything of this season.
At 15-25, they have the worst record in baseball, and -- aside from A.J. Ewing, who could offer a jolt but should absolutely not be viewed as a savior -- there doesn't seem to be help coming any time soon.
Francisco Lindoris out long-term, and could be a few days away from a follow-up MRI on his calf injury. If the news is good, his progression could be "relatively quick." But he's still weeks away from being on the radar.
Meanwhile, the injuries to Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco are lingering, and there is essentially no timetable for either one of them, meaning New York is without three of its five most important hitters.
Beyond that, the Mets are probably exhausted, having flown to the West Coast three times already this season -- an absurd bit of schedule-making that boggles the mind.
In any event, to sum things up: the Mets have a pitching staff that is good enough for them to be a playoff team (their 170 runs allowed are sixth-best in the NL, and the five NL teams better than them are all in playoff position), and an offense that is bad enough for them to be a last place team (their 139 runs scored are tied with the Giants for the fewest in baseball).
Will the offense wake up before it's too late? And which players should New York rely on daily to try to get out of these offensive doldrums?
Given Lindor's absence (opening up shortstop for Bichette) and the promotion of Ewing, it can be argued that the Mets should trot out this configuration most days, and not revolve lineups around the handedness of the opposing pitcher -- as they were doing until recently against lefties while sitting Benge:
A.J. Ewing, CF
Juan Soto, LF
Bo Bichette, SS
Francisco Alvarez, C
Carson Benge, RF
Mark Vientos, 1B
Brett Baty, 3B
Marcus Semien, 2B
MJ Melendez, DH
It's fair to believe Ewing will not be the leadoff hitter from the jump, but he certainly profiles there in the long run given his bat-to-ball ability and penchant for working deep counts.
A much more difficult thing to answer is whether this unit will be good enough to lift New York out of the doldrums.
Soto's slump will end, Bichette's advanced stats show a likely rise to the mean is coming, Benge looks comfortable as he continues to get acclimated to the majors, and Alvarez has produced at right around an average level. But there are enormous questions about the other potential main lineup cogs.
As the Mets try to get their undermanned offense going and stack wins, here's what their schedule looks like for the rest of May:
3 games vs. Tigers
3 games vs. Yankees
4 games @ Nationals
3 games @ Marlins
3 games vs. Reds
3 games vs. Marlins
Given their current place in the standings, the Mets are in no position to look down their noses at any team in the majors. But accounting for their expectations before the season and their personnel, they're going to have to win most series they play against teams like the Nats and Marlins if they hope to get back in it. As far as the Reds, they're reeling, having lost eight of their last 10 games and sporting a -33 run differential that suggests their 22-19 record is a mirage.
The Tigers are also flailing a bit, sitting at 19-22 and currently without Tarik Skubal.
The Yankees, despite their four-game losing streak, are one of the most well-rounded teams in baseball. They'll be a huge challenge, but perhaps the atmosphere at Citi Field helps ignite something in the Mets.
By going 15-25 to open the season, the Mets have given themselves little margin for error the rest of the way. They also have a ton of work to do if they want to prove that the first 40 games were an aberration.
In order to have a realistic chance to reach the postseason, the Mets will likely have to go about 71-51 between now and the end of the season, which would mean finishing with a record of 86-76. Over the last three seasons, the final NL Wild Card has finished with between 83 and 89 wins, so we split the difference for this prognostication.
The season won't be over if the Mets don't make serious progress between now and the end of May, but they'll certainly be closer to becoming a seller at the trade deadline than a team that stands pat or buys -- a situation that would've been unthinkable six weeks ago.