Heading into the 2026 campaign, we all knew who Austin Wells was as a hitter. His wRC+ ranged between 94 and 107 every season from 2023 to 2025, and he developed 20-homer power last year with a .436 slugging percentage. He racked up 3.5 fWAR in 2024 and earned a 3.0 mark last campaign.
He has regressed offensively this year, though, struggling to the tune of a .176/.288/.275 line, just four homers in 153 plate appearances, a 62 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR, mostly fueled by his still steady defensive contributions. Wells has been particularly bad in May, slashing an unfathomable .148/.212/.197 with an 18 (!) wRC+. He has a 7.6 percent walk rate and a horrible 37.9 percent strikeout rate this month, with a .049 isolated power and just one extra-base hit, a home run.
Of course, everything starts at the plate. That elevated strikeout rate makes it virtually impossible for a hitter to succeed, let alone someone who hasn’t really been showing home-run power. In May, Wells has a 14 percent swinging strike rate (SwStr%), higher than his 12.5 percent mark for his career. In addition to the whiffs, his contact rate has plummeted to 71.2 percent this month, down from 74.9 percent in his MLB tenure.
If we examine his season numbers as a whole, not just May, it does seem that he is being too passive at times. He is sporting a career-high 14.8 percent called strike rate, and a career-low 46.9 percent swing percentage. He is also swinging at pitches inside the zone at a 67.3 percent rate, much lower than his career mark of 72 percent and last year’s 71.5 percent.
On top of that, even though his chase percentage is actually marginally better this year than last, he has had some ugly swings out of the zone that often result in strikeouts. It’s like he gives up on at-bats at times, or is not fully focused:
As you can see in the videos above, down-and-away breaking balls are murdering Wells, who has looked helpless with two strikes on the count. This is probably why he has been so vulnerable against lefties, with a horrible -3 wRC+ this season against them as opposed to a 97 mark versus righties. Basically, if you are a southpaw, or a right-hander with a good changeup or splitter with arm-side movement, you have the upper hand against Wells.
Of course, there’s also the luck factor, which can’t be completely ignored. Wells’ .046 gap between his .259 wOBA and his .305 xwOBA is the 13th largest in the entire league among qualified hitters. This doesn’t mean he has been good, but that’s not the case, but his numbers should be a bit better based on his quality (and quantity) of contact.
It’s not like it’s all been bad with Wells. His 13.7 percent walk rate ranks in the 88th percentile among MLB hitters, and he ranks in the 90th percentile in Fielding Run Value, per Statcast. He remains a phenomenal framer and a good defensive catcher, not to mention a patient hitter willing to walk. However, he needs to hit if he’s going to remain the Yankees’ starting catcher in 2026 and beyond. It’s that simple.
The Yankees can surely tolerate a wRC+ between 85 and 95 if it means a catcher makes the difference behind the dish, which is the case with Wells. A 62 mark, however, is hard to stomach. Unless the Yankees are willing to start using Ben Rice at catcher more often, which hasn’t happened at all this year, or give more playing time to J.C. Escarra, they have no choice but to stick with Wells through his offensive struggles.
Kurt Helin
COVERS INTEL: Historically, the fastball is the only one of Pallante’s pitches teams can hit, and