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With left-hander Framber Valdez on the bump, the Detroit Tigers are a -122 moneyline favorite tonight against their AL Central rivals, the Cleveland Guardians. 

With the struggling Foster Griffin on the hill for Cleveland, my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions are targeting Detroit in-form offense to thrive. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, August 12. 

Who will win Guardians vs Tigers today: Tigers moneyline (-126)

Framber Valdez has been throwing the ball well for the Detroit Tigers. Across his last two starts, he owns a 2.37 FIP while not allowing a single home run.

Over the last month, Valdez also has a 3.79 FIP, and he now faces a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has struggled against lefties, posting an 88 wRC+.

As for Foster Griffin, he was lit up in his Cleveland debut last week, allowing five earned runs. Griffin also compiled a 5.74 xERA over his previous three appearances before that while still with the Nationals.

The Tigers are an offensive juggernaut right now, carrying a 130 wRC+ over their last 11 contests into tonight’s matchup. They also have a 100 wRC+ vs lefties. 

Detroit has the edge. Play this pick up to -140.

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians have struggled to produce offensively on the road, posting an 86 wRC+ compared to a 103 mark at Progressive Field. That gives Valdez another matchup edge in Detroit. 

Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

This total sits at 8.5, and I'm liking the Under. While neither bullpen has been perfect lately, both offenses are showing very little power right now. Cleveland owns a .111 ISO over the last week, while Detroit sits even lower at .090 during that span.

The Tigers’ bullpen has been manageable with a 4.07 FIP over the last week while allowing 1.27 HR/9. Cleveland’s pen is more concerning with a 5.19 FIP and 7.25 BB/9, but the Guardians’ lineup has not shown enough thump lately to fully push this toward the Over.

With both offenses lacking power, this profiles as a lower-scoring game.

Play this pick up to -130.

Guardians vs Tigers home run prediction: Jo Adell (+510)

Jo Adell may only have one home run in his last seven contests, but he is smashing the baseball right now, even if it has not left the yard as often as he’d like. The slugger owns a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate over the last two weeks.

What really stands out is the 20-degree average launch angle. Adell is consistently getting lift on the baseball, with a 60% fly-ball rate during that span. He has also smoked 10 homers off lefties this season and owns a .269 ISO against them.

Adell is a solid candidate to go yard.

Play this pick down to +500.

Guardians vs Tigers weather

Weather at Comerica Park looks playable tonight after some earlier afternoon storm risk in Detroit. Conditions should be partly cloudy to mostly clear by first pitch, with temperatures falling from about 81°F at 7 p.m. to 72°F by 11 p.m. Overall, it looks mild with no major weather edge for scoring.

Guardians vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Cleveland +117 | Detroit -122
• Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-186) | Detroit -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Guardians vs Tigers trend

The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.

How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info

Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries

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The Chicago White Sox sit as a -148 home favorite on Wednesday night against the Cincinnati Reds, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field.

However, my Reds vs. White Sox predictions are backing Cincinnati as a road underdog behind a pitching matchup that is far closer than the price suggests.

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.

Who will win Reds vs White Sox today: Reds moneyline (+134)

The Chicago White Sox have been the better team this season, but I don’t see enough separation in Wednesday’s pitching matchup to lay this price.

Luis Castillo owns a 5.30 ERA and is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA over his last five appearances, including five earned runs in four innings in his White Sox debut.

Rhett Lowder’s 5.26 ERA doesn’t look much better on paper, but his recent work is far more encouraging. He's allowed only two earned runs in each of his last three starts.

Chicago deserves to be favored at home, but at +134, the Cincinnati Reds don’t need to be the likelier winner for there to be value. With Lowder trending up and Castillo trending down, I’d play this pick to +120.

COVERS INTEL: Castillo’s four-seam fastball has cratered from a +11 run value in 2025 to -5 in 2026, with opponents’ slugging jumping from .411 to .466, and he still throws it more than 44% of the time.

Reds vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)

Lowder’s recent improvement makes the Under tempting, but there’s enough volatility on both sides of this matchup to prefer the Over at 8.5.

Castillo is the biggest reason, pairing his 5.30 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a career-high home run rate.

Chicago punishes mistakes as one of baseball’s stronger home run clubs, hitting three solo homers in Tuesday’s opener. Cincinnati’s relief group has been one of the weakest in baseball, while Chicago’s just coughed up a three-run eighth-inning lead in the opener.

With two starters carrying ERAs north of 5.25 and shaky pens behind them, I like the number at 8.5, and I’d play this to -130.

Reds vs White Sox home run prediction: Sal Stewart (+474)

I’m chasing a Reds home run here because Castillo has been extremely vulnerable to the long ball, allowing at least two homers in three of his last four outings. His most-used pitch, the four-seam fastball, has become a liability.

Enter Sal Stewart, the Reds’ best four-seam masher, who slugs .643 against the pitch with a +14 run value. The rookie has 25 home runs this season and has gone deep six times in his last 22 games.

I love his price and I’d play this down to +400, at a half unit.

Reds vs White Sox weather

Weather at Rate Field leans hitter-friendly on Wednesday night, with warm temperatures and high humidity near 90%, one of the muggiest environments on the MLB slate. The ballpark already ranks among the best in baseball for home runs, so those conditions give a slight boost to offense and to the Stewart home-run pick. 

Reds vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Reds +134 | White Sox -148
• Run line: Reds +1.5 | White Sox -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Reds vs White Sox trend

Cincinnati has cashed the moneyline in seven of its last 10 games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. White Sox.

How to watch Reds vs White Sox and game info

Reds vs White Sox latest injuries

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Who wins the rubbermatch today? Will Luis Arraez get a hit? Do the Phillies score more than 0-1 runs? Come find out starting 2:15 today with Zack Wheeler on the mound! Lineups:

We’re three-quarters of the way through the season, and while Drew Rasmussen and I really wanted the Yankees to trade for Reid Detmers at the deadline, there are two pitchers gunning for the AL Cy Young. New York’s Cam Schlittler has surpassed expectations for his sophomore season, and Dylan Cease has been just about the only watchable player on a bad Blue Jays team.

At time of writing, the two were separated by 0.1 fWAR, a difference that is quite literally negligible. Cease has done it in about 20 fewer innings, so on a per-inning basis he’s been slightly more valuable, but Schlittler leads the AL in innings pitched and I think that does matter, even in the five-and-fly era we find ourselves in. Although Cease is posting an insane 36.1-percent strikeout rate, Schlittler’s superior control means he’s a hair ahead in K-BB rate at 26.1 percent to 25.5 percent; I personally consider this to be the single most useful pitching stat.

To keep up the fun, they even mirrored each other in recent starts. Last Thursday at the Friendly Confines, Cease went seven shutout innings against a likely playoff team, striking out 10 against a single walk. The Jays lost. On Sunday, Cam went seven innings against a likely playoff team, allowing a single run, sitting down 11 on strikes while walking nobody, and the Yankees lost. It’s one of those strange things about baseball; position dictates the two men will never actually face off against one another, but they’re going blow-for-blow in a heavyweight fight.

There’s 40-ish games left this year, and that means about eight starts apiece for the two favorites. The question isn’t what they’ve done so far in 2026, it’s how they’ll close down the stretch. The big mark against Schlittler is his home runs, a symptom of throwing so many pitches in the zone — as of Tuesday morning, Cease put the ball in the zone 42 percent of the time, Schlittler 49 percent. It seems a major focus of the Yankee’s season has been making guys hit their way aboard, and while that’s worked for the most part, he’s allowed twice as many homers as his northern rival.

Now to Cease’s credit, one of the goals of his season seems to be controlling contact quality. He’s running the lowest barrel rate, average exit velo, fly ball rate, and second-lowest hard-hit rate of his career, exactly what you’d want to do to keep the ball in the yard. xFIP, which adjusts FIP to assume a normal home run rate, does expect some slight regression down the stretch, pegging him for a 2.68 mark instead of his current 2.40 ERA. This has less to do with any choices Cease is making, and more to do with the fact that it’s just unlikely for any pitcher to surrender so few home runs. (Indeed just yesterday, he gave up multiplehomers in a start for just the fourth time this year.)

We can try and map out who Schlittler will face down the stretch — it’s imperfect as the Yankees have a key series with Boston at the end of the month that Cam’s currently not tabbed to start in, and it might make sense for the club to shuffle the rotation around to make sure he makes an appearance over say, Will Warren. There’s also a persistent rumor that Carlos Rodón will return to the team, but hey I’ll believe that when I see it. Those caveats aside, Cam’s tabbed for four starts on the road, against the Blue Jays, Angels, Padres, and Diamondbacks. This is critical when we’ve seen him develop a pretty stark home/road split this season, with a paltry 1.10 ERA/2.39 FIP on the road, compared to a 3.95 ERA/2.95 FIP at the Stadium.

I also think the innings matter!

Cease has been more valuable on a per-inning basis, like I said above. On a 200-inning pace, Dylan would have a 6.9 fWAR season, Cam would be at “just” 6.3. But Dylan Cease isn’t going to throw 200 innings, averaging exactly six innings a start he may not make it to 180. If—and it’s a big if—Cam ends the season effectively tied with Cease across multiple metrics but has a clear lead across the AL in innings pitched, I actually think that makes him more deserving of the award.

Yes, yes, per-inning basis and all, but there’s a certain security you have when you know your pitcher is going to go deep into the game every fifth day. It brings stability to the rotation and nobody’s rotation stays healthy all season, it gives you more options the day before Cam’s start, where Aaron Boone can say “OK, let’s make XYZ move because Schlittler is probably pitching deep tomorrow.” It also gives you more options the day after, since the bullpen is probably a little more rested after the righty starts.

My biggest complaint with the rise of the bullpen game is that the more pitchers you use, the greater the chance that one guy just doesn’t have it that day. He slept funny the night before and his neck has a pinch, or he can’t get a handle on his slider, it’s not really his fault but he just doesn’t have it. The fewer pitchers you use, the fewer possible points of failure. Bulk does matter, to me.

With a quarter of the season to go, figuring out the home runs, the Yankee Stadium issue — which may be one and the same, Cam gives up 1.11 HR/9 in the Bronx and 0.70 away — and continuing to pitch deep into each start is the trifecta for a Cy Young season. Dylan Cease may see some regression, especially on the home run front, but you can’t win a major award by hoping the other guy slows down. I expect this to come right down to the wire, but hopefully Cam ends up on top.

FIRST PITCH: 1240p Central
TELEVISION: Twins.TV, presented by Progressive
RADIO: WCCO 830 AM, KMNB 102.9 FM, Dan Gladden Radio Network, Audacy App
KNOW THE FOE:Camden Chat

The Minnesota Twins walk into yet another rubber match as they look to take the series from the visiting Baltimore Orioles this afternoon. Winning this series will mean a sixth series victory in a row for the home nine as well as gaining a game against the Orioles as they are also in the hunt for the American League Wild Card race.

Shane Baz will take the mound for Baltimore. He faced Minnesota in the opening series of the season and went 5.1 innings en route to an 8-6 win for them. He gave up seven hits and four earned runs while striking out four and did not earn a decision in the game. The rest of his campaign has been good so far this year in a strong Baltimore rotation; he owns a 3.76 ERA/3.35 FIP over 23 starts, but his strikeout numbers are down compared to last year.

Minnesota will call upon Zebby Matthews to start today. He continues to stretch himself out from a season perspective has he’s already eclipsed his total number of innings pitched from last season. The Twins have won the last two games behind Zebby – both five-inning outings, both allowing three earned runs, both allowing two walks, and one game where he notched 10 Ks against the Seattle Mariners. He’s been dealing with a blister on one of his feet, so that is something on which to keep an eye. (That does not allow you to open the door to Twinkie Town After Dark!)

GO TWIMS GO

Today’s Lineups:

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After last night's win, the Atlanta Braves (-175 moneyline favorites) look to secure the series win over New York Mets.

My Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12, see Atlanta pull off the win at home.

Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-175)

Not the sexiest price tag for the Atlanta Braves to come out on top, but I really like this spot.

Tyler Mahle has been lights out over his last five starts, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while doing a great job limiting hard contact and barrels.

On the other side, New York Mets southpaw Zac Thornton has some underlying metrics pointing toward regression. He owns a 2.52 ERA on the year, but his xERA sits at 4.11, according to HandiGraphs.

The Mets’ lineup has been seeing the ball very well over the last week, but with how well Mahle has been pitching, I think he can hold them down.

Plus, the Braves own a 114 wRC+, .333 wOBA and .762 OPS over their last 12 games.

I think this is a great spot for the Bravos.

COVERS INTEL: Five Braves hitters own an OPS above .956 over their last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+101)

I am expecting a pitching duel this evening in Atlanta between Mr. Thornton and Mr. Mahle, as both pitchers have done an excellent job limiting hard-hit balls and, especially, barrels. Across both pitchers’ last five starts, their opponents have stayed under an 8.5% barrel rate.

Even with my concerns about Thornton’s expected numbers this season, he has done a spectacular job of not allowing opposing hitters to generate much hard contact against him.

Both offenses have been outstanding over their last 12 games, but if these pitchers are hitting their spots this evening, I expect runs to be at a premium.

Mets vs Braves home run prediction: Matt Olson (+325)

Another game with slim pickings for long-ball looks, but we’ll go with a bat that has been barreling up lefties a ton over his last 30 plate appearances against them.

That would be Braves slugger Matt Olson, who owns a 26.35% barrel rate, .714 SLG and .464 ISO during that stretch.

Despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Thornton has been allowing left-handed bats to produce a ton of hard-hit balls and barrel up his offerings at a 12.5% clip over his last 30 faced. During that stretch, those bats have a .296 xBA, .495 xSLG and .522 wOBA.

“But he homered yesterday.”

Okay? Junior Caminero went back-to-back days with a home run over the last two days. It means nothing!

If you’re looking for a Met, I’m leaning Francisco Alvarez. His barrel rate has been through the roof lately.

Mets vs Braves weather

Mets vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: New York +158 | Atlanta -175
• Run line: New York +1.5 (-142) | Atlanta -1.5 (+124)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (+101)

Mets vs Braves trend

The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 78% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.

How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info

Mets vs Braves latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

It feels cliche to ponder the possibility of the Pittsburgh Pirates shutting Paul Skenes down, even in what increasingly looks like another lost season for him and his team.

His overall numbers are far from bad relative to the rest of baseball. His 3.88 ERA is fine. His 2.99 FIP, which measures a pitcher’s effectiveness independent of the defense behind him, is very good. So is his 1.12 WHIP, which measures walks and hits per innings pitched. 

Yes, his velocity is down, noticeably. Skenes topped out at 96.5 mph on Aug. 11, and his season average is at 96.8 mph on his four-seam vs a 98.2 mph average in 2025. No, he doesn’t look like the dominant Cy Young-caliber ace he was his first two seasons. And yes, that reality raises existential questions about the club’s future, specifically his future with it. He also hasn’t fully turned into a proverbial pumpkin the way the narrative around this team would sometimes have one think. 

Required Reading: Pirates pull Paul Skenes from start vs. Marlins after just 65 pitches

It nevertheless became a lot harder to ignore the signs that Skenes may not complete the season Aug. 11 in Miami. Manager Don Kelly pulled Skenes after just five innings and 65 pitches against the Marlins, though he said after the game that the decision wasn’t injury related. 

The underlying stat line was deceptive. He allowed just one earned run while scattering five hits and a walk, but he needed Bryan Reynolds to rob Griffin Conine on his final pitch of the evening to avoid a two-run homer that would have given the night a very different feel. 

Before the game, Kelly made one of his frankest acknowledgements yet that something is wrong without pointing specifically to the physical element. 

“The league is adjusting back,” he told reporters. “Paul’s gonna have to fight to make the adjustment back to the league and find a way to adjust himself. Yes, the [velocity]’s down. I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me. That could come from multiple things. From trying too hard to trying to be too perfect. Maybe trying to get that [velocity] back. You can’t just go get it. How does Paul make the adjustment back?” 

Much has been made locally about Skenes’ workload, which this year included the early ramp up to the World Baseball Classic coming off a career-high at all levels of 187 innings during his Cy Young campaign in 2025. 

He’d have to average more than seven innings per start the rest of the way to hit that number again, assuming he finishes at or near his total of 32 games started last year. 

Through that lens, Kelly’s decision could be seen as a further attempt to manage the number downward. Continuing to allow Skenes the space to work through the necessary adjustments without overexposing him in increasingly meaningless games. 

The Pirates didn’t score a single run of support Tuesday night, after all. The bullpen pitched four scoreless innings the rest of the way, so Skenes’ early departure made no practical impact on the outcome.

Perhaps we should expect more of that the rest of the way, as opposed to an outright shut down. Especially as the race for the final wild-card spot in the National League becomes increasingly bleak. 

The Pirates are now six games back of the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, who are tied for wild card spots. The Marlins, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds all remain in front of them. And playoff odds via Fangraphs have almost halved again since Aug. 10. They now sit at 4.4%. 

For his part, Skenes seemed to feel afterward that he’d made progress while demurring on the question of being pulled early. 

POSTGAME: Paul Skenes on tonight's 2-0 shutout loss to the Marlins.

Final line: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, BB, 4 K

Pulled after 65 pitches, third fewest of his season. pic.twitter.com/OX1F4s1afs

— Tyler Boronski (@TylerBoronski) August 12, 2026

“I thought it was better in terms of attacking guys,” he told reporters. “Kind of making pitches earlier in the count. 

“If I were the manager, I’d probably do it, too. [Kelly] walked me through everything and it all made sense. Yeah, wish I could have gone more, but it kind of is what it is.” 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Are Pirates signaling a Paul Skenes shutdown? Or a more actively managed workload?

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It's a getaway day for some, and that's a perfect day to find some MLB player props and dig into what's not priced into the pitcher prop markets.

Drew Rasmussen and Eric Lauer will face offenses looking forward to a day off tomorrow, and their Overs are projecting well, while Zack Wheeler was pushed heavily in his last start and should lose some efficiency and leash today.

These are my favorite pitcher strikeout, pitcher props & MLB picks for Wednesday, August 12.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Drew Rasmussen	Over 5.5 strikeouts	+120
Eric Lauer	Over 4.5 strikeouts	+130
Zack Wheeler	Under 17.5 outs	+140

Strikeout prop: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

Drew Rasmussen might not go 100 pitches every start, but even with that 90-95-pitch leash, he can rack em up, and he's done so of late. Over his last three starts vs. teams with a big array of K%, the Tampa Bay Rays starter has 27 Ks over his last 20 innings. He has gotten to 5+ Ks in all but two of his last 11 starts since the start of June.

Tampa got a complete game with Nick Martinez last night, as the Athletics lineup has been one of the worst over the last two weeks and a bottom-10 team in K% over that stretch. THE BAT will never like Rasmussen's Overs because of that leash, but his range of outcomes and ability to smash his Overs separates him from other starters.

This price is tough to ignore for a K/inning guy who can get to six frames on a team that hates its bullpen and is looking to win a division.

The All-Star break was perfect for the right-hander as he has allowed just two runs over his last 25 innings and hasn't allowed a run in three straight games. He also gets an Athletics team that might be looking ahead to a day off on Thursday.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rays.TV

Strikeout prop: Eric Lauer Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)

Let's take a swing at another heavy plus-money Over K prop against a Kansas City Royals lineup that got carved up by another lefty last night in Blake Snell, who easily topped his 7.5 K prop with a 10-strikeout outing.

Eric Lauer is not Snell, but the Royals are a light-hitting lineup, and they're looking ahead to a day off tomorrow in California before heading to Anaheim.

THE BAT is projecting Lauer to go Over this number on 87 pitches with a fair price of +125, but the Dodgers should give him a six-inning leash with a pitch count that can reach the upper 90s. There’s a good chance he tops that projected pitch count today.

Lauer is also coming off a bad start at Wrigley, his worst as a Dodger, giving him some motivation on his side. The Los Angeles Dodgers could also be without three relievers today, including two lefties, which makes getting length from Lauer even more important.

I'm taking the Over and looking for Lauer to get through six innings with enough volume to cash this plus-money prop.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNetLA, Royals.TV

Pitcher outs prop: Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 outs (+141)

Sticking with the plus-money on these, this is my favorite fade of the day. Zack Wheeler is coming off an 116-pitch outing against the Blue Jays, which was the most he has thrown in over five seasons. Making that even heavier is that he threw just 110 combined pitches in his two previous outings.

His form has also fallen off that Cy Young pace, as he owns a 5.71 ERA since the break and has gone Over this number just once.

Looking at the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen, there could be a quicker hook than usual, as all but one arm is available and the high-leverage guys need some work.

There are also some lefties in that St. Louis Cardinals lineup who could end Wheeler's day, with JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson in the mix. There should be five lefties in the Cardinals' lineup today.

I love fading pitchers coming off massive workloads, and the distraction about Wheeler not touching the rubber is just another thing that works in this Under's favor. This isn't a coin flip, but 45%-47% looks like the outcome.

• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, NBCSP

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

I got a few things going on today, and I’m kind wanting a day off, so lets do an open thread.

I saw a tweet for a post saying “How could the Jays pull it off?“ and I was thinking win a lot of games? That’s it right? Cause blowing up the other teams’ ballparks, with the teams in them, seems a bit over the top.

Of course, having two starting pitchers go on the IL in the past couple of weeks makes it all that much harder.

2.5 games back now but they have to leap over five teams to get there, which is the tough part. If one of those teams goes on a run, it becomes that much harder.

Anyway, use the thread to talk about anything you’d like. If nothing else give me something I can watch on streaming, because I’m watching ‘Heros’ and, as I remembered it, the first season was fairly compelling, but the second season is just a mess.