When the Mets sat at 10-21 as the calendar flipped from April to May, they were at rock bottom. 

New York was fresh off a 12-game losing streak, with the end of it overlapping with a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals that led to loud questions about manager Carlos Mendoza's job as the club boarded its flight for a nine-game road trip -- questions that were at least temporarily put to rest soon after by president of baseball operations David Stearns. 

The West Coast jaunt started out in promising fashion, with New York going 5-2 to open it. But two listless losses to the Diamondbacks capped the trip, with the Mets mustering just two runs total in those defeats.

While the Mets have played a tick above .500 since bottoming out at 10-21, they need to turn it on if they hope to make anything of this season.

At 15-25, they have the worst record in baseball, and -- aside from A.J. Ewing, who could offer a jolt but should absolutely not be viewed as a savior -- there doesn't seem to be help coming any time soon.

Francisco Lindoris out long-term, and could be a few days away from a follow-up MRI on his calf injury. If the news is good, his progression could be "relatively quick." But he's still weeks away from being on the radar.

Meanwhile, the injuries to Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco are lingering, and there is essentially no timetable for either one of them, meaning New York is without three of its five most important hitters. 

Beyond that, the Mets are probably exhausted, having flown to the West Coast three times already this season -- an absurd bit of schedule-making that boggles the mind.

In any event, to sum things up: the Mets have a pitching staff that is good enough for them to be a playoff team (their 170 runs allowed are sixth-best in the NL, and the five NL teams better than them are all in playoff position), and an offense that is bad enough for them to be a last place team (their 139 runs scored are tied with the Giants for the fewest in baseball).

Will the offense wake up before it's too late? And which players should New York rely on daily to try to get out of these offensive doldrums?

Given Lindor's absence (opening up shortstop for Bichette) and the promotion of Ewing, it can be argued that the Mets should trot out this configuration most days, and not revolve lineups around the handedness of the opposing pitcher -- as they were doing until recently against lefties while sitting Benge:

A.J. Ewing, CF
Juan Soto, LF
Bo Bichette, SS
Francisco Alvarez, C
Carson Benge, RF
Mark Vientos, 1B
Brett Baty, 3B
Marcus Semien, 2B
MJ Melendez, DH

It's fair to believe Ewing will not be the leadoff hitter from the jump, but he certainly profiles there in the long run given his bat-to-ball ability and penchant for working deep counts.

A much more difficult thing to answer is whether this unit will be good enough to lift New York out of the doldrums.

Soto's slump will end, Bichette's advanced stats show a likely rise to the mean is coming, Benge looks comfortable as he continues to get acclimated to the majors, and Alvarez has produced at right around an average level. But there are enormous questions about the other potential main lineup cogs.

As the Mets try to get their undermanned offense going and stack wins, here's what their schedule looks like for the rest of May:

3 games vs. Tigers
3 games vs. Yankees
4 games @ Nationals
3 games @ Marlins
3 games vs. Reds
3 games vs. Marlins

Given their current place in the standings, the Mets are in no position to look down their noses at any team in the majors. But accounting for their expectations before the season and their personnel, they're going to have to win most series they play against teams like the Nats and Marlins if they hope to get back in it. As far as the Reds, they're reeling, having lost eight of their last 10 games and sporting a -33 run differential that suggests their 22-19 record is a mirage.

The Tigers are also flailing a bit, sitting at 19-22 and currently without Tarik Skubal.

The Yankees, despite their four-game losing streak, are one of the most well-rounded teams in baseball. They'll be a huge challenge, but perhaps the atmosphere at Citi Field helps ignite something in the Mets.

By going 15-25 to open the season, the Mets have given themselves little margin for error the rest of the way. They also have a ton of work to do if they want to prove that the first 40 games were an aberration.

In order to have a realistic chance to reach the postseason, the Mets will likely have to go about 71-51 between now and the end of the season, which would mean finishing with a record of 86-76. Over the last three seasons, the final NL Wild Card has finished with between 83 and 89 wins, so we split the difference for this prognostication.

The season won't be over if the Mets don't make serious progress between now and the end of May, but they'll certainly be closer to becoming a seller at the trade deadline than a team that stands pat or buys -- a situation that would've been unthinkable six weeks ago.

The Yankees offense is in a bit of a rut, losing their last four games by scoring three or fewer runs in each. It coincides with a period in which several of their hitters — Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Domínguez, and José Caballero — have dealt with or are dealing with minor injuries, but really the prime culprit has been a spike in strikeouts by the entire lineup. We therefore have to go back to the series finale against the Rangers for our At-Bat of the Week, courtesy of Trent Grisham.

We join Grisham with one out in the bottom of the sixth. The Yankees trail, 2-1, but have the bases loaded thanks to walks by Cody Bellinger and Ryan McMahon sandwiched around an Amed Rosario single and Jazz Chisholm Jr. pop out. It’s really only their second prime opportunity to score off of MacKenzie Gore, who had found his groove after yielding the pair of triples in the first. So far Grisham has flied out to left and singled on a pop up, Gore attacking him with four-seamers and sliders.

Gore got Grisham to swing over the top of a first pitch slider away the last AB, so he attempts the same tactic with the first pitch in this encounter.

Instead, Gore pulls this pitch badly and it ends up in the dirt for an easy take by Grisham. At no point was this pitch in the zone, meaning Grisham’s bat never leaves his shoulder.

After mis-executing the previous pitch, Gore switches gears to the fastball, but this time opts to go with the sinker instead of the four-seamer.

This is just rude from Gore, and highlights why it is so important for starting pitchers to possess more than one type of fastball. To this point, the only type of fastball that Grisham has seen from Gore has been the four-seamer. Grisham correctly diagnoses fastball out of Gore’s hand here and chooses a swing path based on the way he has seen the four-seamer move. However, rather than hold its plane vertically without much arm-side movement like the four-seamer, this sinker dives down and in. The result is an on-time swing from Grisham, but still a whiff over the top given how it is effectively impossible to distinguish sinker from four-seamer based on the ball’s spin.

After seeing Grisham whiff on the previous pitch by a fair margin, the logical course is for Gore to throw another one to the exact same location and see if he can induce the same outcome.

Gore leaves this sinker middle-middle, and Grisham does not miss. He stays back for an extra tick before firing a short-compact swing, driving the ball into the left-center field gap for a bases-clearing double to give the Yankees back the lead, knock Gore from the game, and spark an eventual six-run inning. I love how Grisham is able to make a mid-AB adjustment from one pitch to the next. All he needed was to see and swing over a single sinker, giving him enough information to doctor his swing path so that he can square it up on the very next pitch.

Here’s the full AB:

You might raise your eyebrows at a sub-.200 hitter batting leadoff. However, Grisham’s 15.5-percent walk rate places him in the 92nd percentile of qualified batters, making him one of the few on-base threats in the Yankees lineup. Much like Ben Rice last year, Grisham has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball when you compare his results to his batted ball and discipline data. He places in 100th percentile in squared-up rate and 99th percentile in chase rate while sitting comfortably in the top-20 percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The almost 50-point gap between his wOBA and expected wOBA is one of the largest deficits in the league, and his .184 BABIP is 75 points below his career average and is due for positive regression. As this AB showed, Grisham is one of the most adept Yankees hitters at making an in-game adjustment even one pitch to the next, which combined with the fact that Grisham’s under-the-hood metrics look quite similar to his career year last season gives me confidence that the results shouldn’t be far behind.

Inspiration.

One of my favorite players was named minor league pitcher for the month of April.  Two accomplishments follow:

• Allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 appearances with the Aces.
• His 0.66 ERA ranked second among all Triple-A relievers

In July of 2024, I wrote about the secrets of his success. Circumstances made his future uncertain. He kept his dream alive and he worked hard (extraordinarily hard) to prepare, not knowing if he would ever get an opportunity.

In November of 2025, I wrote his player review.  The review considered three possible additions to the rotation (Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, and Kohl Drake), and it noted that Diaz had the fastest average fastball velocity (95.3 MPH vs 94.1 and 93.3/92.7).  Also, the review looked at his control of the strike zone, especially walks per batter faced.  In 2025 AAA, his 28.4% walks per batter faced was high.   Spoiler:  In 2026 through 8 May, his 9.0% walks per batter faced was an awesome improvement (as was his 11.1% in spring training).

Let’s look at reasons he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

Two tables tell the story.

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  The first table shows four of the five statistics were improved.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing), which likely reduced the batters’ success.  Data from FanGraphs, games through 8 May 2026.

This season, Diaz had more strikeouts than walks. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA.  The second table shows nine statistics that were improved. Data from Baseball Savant, games through 8 May.

My conclusion is that he clearly showed he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

What delayed his call up?

In spring training he improved his walk rate. On the other hand, his .33 hits per PA and his barrels per PA were too high.  That sample size was small (18 batters faced) and spring training did not show his full potential.

I’m happy that this season in AAA he overcame the small sample size. With 67 batters faced, he reduced his hits per PA by 50%, and he reduced his barrels per PA by 50%.

A second reason for delay is that the Diamondbacks are a top-5 team in shutdown performances by bullpen pitchers. They are only three shutdowns from being the best in the Majors. My view is that this metric is important for bullpen pitchers (other metrics show them closer to an average bullpen). One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the bullpen.

Summary.

Last season, Diaz walked too many batters. That issue is gone. This season in AAA his walk rate was much lower, and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was much higher. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA. 

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone, which reduced the batters’ success. 

One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the Diamondbacks bullpen, which excels in shutdown performances.

Raise your hand if you knew that 41 games into the season — one-quarter of the way — the Braves and Cubs would have the two best records in the National League.

I better not see any hands raised because, no, you didn’t know that. None of us did.

But that should make this a good matchup for this early in the season.

For more on the Braves, here’s Demetrius Bell, manager of our SB Nation Braves site Battery Power.

It’s been a long time (well, a long time for Braves fans) since Atlanta’s looked this good. Despite coming into this series with all types of injury concerns and a lot of legitimate concerns about the pitching staff being able to compete at a high level, things have gone extremely well for the Braves to get this season started. Their 25-10 start through 35 games is actually the best start they’ve had to a season since 1892 (!!!) and while they did end up dropping a series to the Mariners last week, they ended a 6-3 road trip out West with a somewhat comprehensive series win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers. They hadn’t even won a game at Dodger Stadium since 2023 — much less a series. The Braves are rolling and there’s a real sense of excitement about the team at the moment. 

While there was plenty of concern about the pitching staff and the lack of offseason moves that were made to address the questions surrounding the rotation, this appears to have been all part of the plan for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos. He stated multiple times that he figured that the problem all along for the Braves over their past two seasons had been their lack of hitting (compared to how they mashed the ball in 2022 and 2023). Well, here we are in 2026 and right now, they’re one of the top-hitting teams in all of baseball according to wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA and Isolated Power. 

Matt Olson is playing like the best first baseman (and one of the best players, overall) in baseball at the moment, Drake Baldwin is starting to establish himself as an elite-hitting catcher, Michael Harris II is looking more like the star-caliber player he was during the second half of 2025 instead of the genuinely-awful player he was during the first half of that season and Ozzie Albies is on track for a big-time bounce-back season. Mauricio Dubón has been surprisingly good at the plate as well and they’ve been getting timely hitting from the bench. Walt Weiss has been pushing all the right buttons for most of this squad and some of his pinch hitting/running choices have paid off in spades. 

Pitching-wise, Chris Sale has continued to be consistently good but Bryce Elder has surprisingly been the top guy in the rotation so far. Spencer Strider is back and he looked great during his outing against the Dodgers, so he may be back as well. The questions surrounding the rotation have persisted and that could be Atlanta’s downfall in this series considering that they’ve been going on a series-by-series revolving door of starting pitcher in the back end of their rotation but so far they’ve been relying on Martín Pérez and JR Ritchie to deliver as well. The bullpen has been solid and again, Walt Weiss is managing like someone who understands what high-leverage and low-leverage is. 

The fact that they’ve done all of this with Austin Riley mostly struggling, Ronald Acuña Jr. looking like a normal human being instead of a supernova, Sean Murphy having only played a handful of games and Ha-Seong Kim having played no games is really impressive in my view. I’d say that we haven’t seen this team’s ceiling quite yet, which is exciting for us Braves fans. The Cubs are going to be tough, though and I am really looking forward to seeing how this series shakes out. It should be a fun one!

Fun facts

The Cubs’ next loss to the Braves will be their 900th since 1901, the first season of the Modern Era.

If it comes in this series, it will be their 600th on the road vs. the Braves since 1876, when both were charter members of the new National League. The Cubs have lost exactly 600 on the road against the Phillies.

They have won 556 when visiting the Braves. They are 700-466 at home, for a total record of 1,256-1,065-18. That .541 winning percentage is the Cubs’ second highest against a current NL opponent. They are .544 (285-239) vs. the Padres, who began play in 1969.

Last year, the Cubs won two of three at Atlanta. It was their first series win there since 2018. In 2019-24, they were 3-13.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 3.68 FIP) vs. Grant Holmes, RHP (2-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 5.03 FIP)

Wednesday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (4-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, 2.81 FIP) vs. JR Ritchie, RHP (1-0, 3.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.88 FIP)

Thursday: Ben Brown, RHP (1-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.910 WHIP, 2.66 FIP) vs. Chris Sale, LHP (6-2, 2.20 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 3.48 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, TBS (outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Wednesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, Peacock (streaming, Braves broadcast, outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Prediction

This series will be a good test for the Cubs, as they come in one game behind Atlanta for the best record in the NL.

The Cubs appear to have the advantage re: pitching matchups in two of these three, so I’m picking that, even though the Cubs have not done well at Truist Park historically (10-15 all-time there, though as noted by John, they did win two of three in Atlanta last year).

Also, the Cubs are 21-9 in games started by RHP and just 6-5 vs. games started by LHP, even though overall their OPS vs. LHP (.804) is better than their OPS vs. RHP (.746).

Up next

The Cubs return to Chicago and go to the South Side for a three-game series against the White Sox beginning Friday evening.

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The Padres head to Milwaukee for a possible postseason preview series. Milwaukee has won four straight, including a weekend sweep of the Yankees. San Diego leads the West despite struggling on offense.

The pitching matchup promises to give everyone a spark at the plate. That’s why my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks look for San Diego to get the road win on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Padres moneyline (+116)

A division leader with a better record at underdog prices is a surprise, even on the road. The San Diego Padres haven’t been hitting, but they should be able to get things going against starter Brandon Sproat, a rookie who is winless in MLB. 

Sproat walks 5.3 batters per nine and allows 2.1 homers. All of his pitches rank in baseball’s bottom quartile.

The Milwaukee Brewers will face Matt Waldron, who has struggled with a 7.71 ERA this season, but the Padres may have found a solution. He pitched much better after an opener in his last outing and San Diego may try that again.

COVERS INTEL:For his career, Waldron has allowed a .971 OPS and 148 OPS+ in the first inning. He’s allowed 11 first-inning home runs, more than any other inning. 

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

The Padres have had trouble at the plate, however. In their series split with St. Louis over the weekend, San Diego managed just 14 hits—a franchise record low for a four-game series.

Like the Padres, the Brewers have been below league average at the plate all season and even worse lately. Milwaukee has a .625 OPS with 88 OPS+ over the last week. The Padres are .590 and 76 over the last seven days.

While the starters are shaky for both teams, Milwaukee and San Diego have outstanding bullpens, led by the Brewers’ Aaron Ashby and the Padres’ Mason Miller.

Padres vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +117 | Milwaukee -122
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-178) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Padres vs Brewers trend

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The top two teams in baseball meet for three games when the Chicago Cubs kick off a series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park tonight.

Chicago has hit a two-game mini-slump after winning 10 straight, but my Cubs vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks looks for that to end with a win over Atlanta on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Cubs vs Braves today: Cubs moneyline (+108)

The Chicago Cubs have won 20 of their last 25. However, they were shut out the last two games.

Texas stopped Chicago with starters featuring overpowering fastballs. Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes throws a fastball 2 mph slower and with 100 fewer revolutions in spin, which should spark an offense that was scoring six a game.

Holmes is also getting squared up consistently, ranking in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate.

The Braves return from the West Coast. It’s their first home game since losing legendary owner Ted Turner and manager Bobby Cox. An emotional crowd might give Atlanta an early boost, but it will be a tired Braves team by the end of the night.

COVERS INTEL: Holmes actually throws his slider more than his fastball, but that’s also slower than the two Rangers starters that shut down Chicago. The Cubs have two players in MLB’s Top 50 batters against the slider and one in the Top 50 vs. the fastball.

Cubs vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

While the Cubs’ back-to-back blankings got more attention, the Braves have actually hit worse than Chicago over the last week. Both have been below league average: .606 OPS and 82 OPS+ for Atlanta, .644 and 94 for Chicago.

Holmes is far from the only pitcher who doesn’t throw as fast as Jacob deGrom, and his 94-mph heater has done well this season. The Braves have won four of his last five starts, and he’s been outstanding at getting batters to chase and swing & miss so far this season.

Chicago starter Colin Rea is 4-1 and has an even better chase rate. He’s been confounding batters with his offspeed stuff, and it should be enough to help keep this final below the somewhat lofty total.

Cubs vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Cubs +102 | Braves -122
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+157) | Braves +1.5 (-191)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Cubs vs Braves trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.

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What baseball god has it out for Sean Murphy?

After a long and windy road that includes his season-ending hip surgery and rehab after, Murph has played four (4) games since returning on May 4. The initial X-rays were fine per Mark Bowman, and Walt Weiss seemed optimistic. But the the catcher’s interference play in the Dodgers series finale on Sunday is officially a fractured left middle finger for #12. He has been placed on the 10-day IL backdated to yesterday, May 12. Absolutely brutal.

And exactly like the last time Murphy went down, the veteran Sandy León will step up to back up Drake Baldwin. Confused and wondering why he was a free agent to begin with? You’re not misremembering – León was with the team on a minor league contract and played ten games with the Gwinnett Stripers this season. However, the Braves granted him his release per his request on April 22 to pursue an opportunity with the Saraperos de Saltillo of the Mexican League. Now that we are Heim-less, the Braves have gone with the veteran and beloved presence in León instead of the current Triple-A options of Chadwick Tromp and Jaír Camargo.

Outfielder José Azócar also knows what the revolving door feels like, and here he is back with the major league club. To recap briefly, he was DFA’d May 6, elected free agency May 8, and signed his new minor league contract yesterday, May 11. He’ll occupy the fourth OF / pinch runner role. And as many predicted with the return of Ha-Seong Kim, Jim Jarvis (of MLB’s play of the week fame) has been optioned down to Triple-A in a corresponding move.