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All four Rangers affiliates scored double digits yesterday. Yes, even Hub City.

Hickory starter Jormy Nivar allowed one run in four innings, striking out four and walking one.

Paulino Santana was 2 for 5 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was had a hit and a walk. Marcos Torres was 2 for 3 with two walks and three stolen bases. Hector Osorio was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, two walks, and three stolen bases. Josh Springer had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks. Esteban Mejia was 3 for 5.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter J’Briell Easley threw two shutout innings, striking out three. Anthony Susac struck out two in 2.1 scoreless.

Maxton Martin tripled and drew two walks. Gleider Figuereo was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk. Malcolm Moore drew a walk. Chandler Pollard drew a pair of walks.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Winston Santos gave up six runs in three innings, including three home runs, walking two and striking out four.

Ian Moller had a hit and two walks. Keith Jones II was 2 for 6 with a double.

Frisco box score

Dane Acker started for Round Rock and gave up five runs in 2.1 IP, walking four and striking out one. Emiliano Teodo allowed an unearned run in 1.2 IP, walking one and striking out two. Thomas Ireland, apparently sent to Round Rock as a filler arm after the Express lost Cal Quantrill, Gavin Collyer and Marc Church from their pitching staff yesterday, struck out three, walked two and allowed one run in three innings. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a two run homer in two innings, striking out one.

Justin Foscue had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.

Round Rock box score

The Kansas City Royals are 7-12 and just lost a heartbreaker to the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon. Despite that, I imagine that there were still plenty of smiles at 1 Royal Way yesterday after the KCMO City Council passed a stadium financing ordinance that could provide up to $600 million for the construction of a new stadium in the “Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.” The vote passed 11-1-1. This vote was a big step for KCMO to keep the Royals in the city, but it’s just a step with more to come. This legislation authorizes KCMO City Manager Mario Vasquez to officially start negotiating with the Royals, as we see in Section 3 of the bill:

Section 3. That the City Manager is hereby directed to negotiate, in coordination with the appropriate
agencies, a comprehensive lease and a comprehensive development agreement with the Kansas City Royals
organization, developers, city incentive agencies, and other relevant parties for the development of a new
stadium and team offices in the Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.

Kansas City Star reporter Dylan Lysen wrote a quality article on what this does and does not mean, and what steps are next:

It mostly sets up a general framework and roadmap for city officials to reach agreements with the Royals and other government agencies who would all be involved in bringing the stadium to life.

Getting the project any further along will not only require buy-in from the team and the state, but the City Council will also still need to approve any funding promises, a lease and other details at a later date before construction can begin.

The Royals seem pleased with the vote; they released a statement stating:

The Royals remain grateful for the work and attention of local leaders. We respect the process, which includes the City Council and Parks Board consideration, and the City Manager’s presentation of a term sheet for review and negotiation, with a long-term vision that we expect to include one of the largest private investments in Kansas City history. As always, our motivation is to find the best solution for our team, our fans, and our community. We’re excited by the possibilities this opportunity presents for our hometown

The team’s success in local politics did not translate on to the field, as the team lost 10-9 in a walk-off in Detroit. Lucas Erceg, who blew the save in the ninth inning, shouldered the blame for the loss:

 “We finally turn the corner, and I just come out and blow the lead like that and lose the game. So, I feel like this loss is on me. But, then again, there’s always tomorrow. And I’m going to be ready for tomorrow. I hope that I’m in the same situation tomorrow night and get back to winning.”

For something more positive, Kiri Oler referenced a piece of literature I’d never heard of breakdown of Seth Lugo’s pitches that was way above my head but still an enjoyable read:

In defense of the hitters, Lugo gives them a complicated set of variables to consider during the small window of time allotted for a swing decision. He’s got seven(ish) pitches to his name, and they all make an essential contribution to who he is as a pitcher.

Maybe the Royals can channel the power of Mike Trout when they face the New York Yankees this weekend. The slugger hit his fifth home-run in the four game series at New York on Thursday.

Old friend Mark Canha has asked to be released by the Texas Rangers so he can pursue big league opportunities with another team.

Old friend Richard Lovelady has been acquired by the Washington Nationals from the New York Mets.

The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds had their benches clear after the final out of the Giants 3-0 victory.

The San Diego Padres could be sold as early as next week that could approach a record $3.5 billion.

Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects a lot of trades during the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Chainsmokers, Flo Rida and The All-American Rejects will all perform in Kansas City for the FIFA Fan Festival.

The NWSL is expected to vote on whether they will switch their calendar to a fall-to-spring season, much like the MLS did recently.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.

Europe is down to “six weeks or so” of jet fuel.

Song of the Day: Bilmuri – More Than Hate

Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 7, Durham Bulls (Rays) 2

Norfolk scored the only win on the farm last night. José Barrero led the charge with a pair of home runs and a triple. He finished 3-for-4 with four RBIs and four runs scored.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand played the Robin to Barrero’s Batman. Encarnacion-Strand finished 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored. Ryan Noda and Bryan Ramos added the only other Norfolk hits.

Tides starter Nestor German matched Barrero’s big day with 10 strikeouts on the mound. German allowed one run on three hits and one walk over 4.1 innings. He threw 49-of-81 pitches for strikes.

Double-A: New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays) 12, Chesapeake Baysox 6

After allowing 30 runs yesterday during a doubleheader, Chesapeake limited New Hampshire to only 12 runs on Thursday. Neither team scored in the first four innings, but the Fisher Cats sprung for six runs in the fourth. Baysox starter Evan Yates recorded only one out in the inning. He ended the day with six earned runs on six hits and six walks.

Frederick Bencosme and Douglas Hodo III cut the lead in half with RBI singles in the fifth, and Bencosme trimmed the deficit to two by putting the ball in play in the eighth. Unfortunately, the Fisher Cats posted their second six-spot of the day in the bottom half of the inning. Eric Torres and Christian Herberholz posted zeros, but Ben Vespi allowed the game to get out of hand with six earned in the eighth.

Tavian Josenberger plated two with a double in the ninth.

High-A: Hudson Valley Renegades (Yankees) 5, Frederick Keys 2

Frederick starter Joseph Dzierwa took the loss after allowing three runs in five innings. Baltimore’s second round pick from 2025 surrendered a two-out, two-run single in the top of the first. He settled in with four scoreless innings, but he left after issuing a leadoff walk in the sixth. Dzierwa ended his day with only two hits allowed, but the four walks proved costly. Juan Rojas allowed the inherited runner to score.

Frederick struggled to get things going at the dish. Vance Honeycutt scored the team’s first run on a bizarre play in the fifth. With the bases empty, Honeycutt snuck a ball beyond a diving center fielder. Honeycutt slipped when rounding second, but the throw sailed over the third baseman’s head. Honeycutt came all the way around to score on a little league home run.

Honeycutt plated Ike Irish with a base hit in the bottom of the ninth.

Low-A: Fredericksburg Nationals 8, Delmarva Shorebirds 2

Delmarva struck first when Stiven Martinez raced home on a wild pitch in the first, but Fredericksburg rattled off six straight runs. DJ Layton plated Martinez with a single in the sixth, but the Nationals tacked on two more to prevent things from getting interesting.

The Shorebirds managed only four hits in the game. Layton and Andrés Nolaya singled, Jordan Sanchez doubled, and Martinez tripled in the sixth.

Todd Kniebbe kept Fredericksburg off the board over the final 2.1 innings. Starter Brayan Orrantia allowed three earned over four innings, and Dalton Neuschwander coughed up five over 1.2 frames.
Box scores

Friday’s Schedule

Norfolk: at Durham, 6:45 pm. Starter: Levi Wells (1-1, 1.26 ERA)

Chesapeake: at New Hampshire, 6:03 pm. Starter: Luis De León (1-1, 6.00 ERA)

Frederick: vs Hudson Valley, 7:00 pm. Starter: JT Quinn (0-0, 1.00 ERA)

Delmarva: at Fredericksburg, 6:35 pm. Starter: Esteban Mejia (0-1, 7.20 ERA)

Happy Friday, everyone. The Cubs are back home tonight and looking to keep the good times rolling, and with the struggling Mets coming to town, they might just get their wish. In the meantime, we’ll take a look at what’s happening around baseball. The top stories of the continuing trend of teams extending their breakout rookies, as the Tigers sign Kevin McGonigle to a monster eight-year extension worth $150 million. His (also rich) teammate, Tarik Skubal, teased McGonigle in a press conference, asking if the rookie would be treating the boys to dinner in Boston.

We also look at the thrilling resurgence of Mike Trout, who had an unreal series against the Yankees, and is reminding everyone of the Mike Trout of old, something I think all baseball fans can enjoy. And one Mariners reporter is getting a lot of heat online for trying to use AI to help her craft her questions.

There’s also an updated starting pitcher ranking to look at, while the Rockies are just trying to keep drones out of their airspace.

So let’s just jump right into it, shall we?

• Dan Szymborski assesses how Ben Rice is dominating against the American League.
• Michael Baumann thinks it’s time for a victory lap over the Brandon Lowe trade.
• Sarah Langs looks at the showmanship put on by Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in the recent Angels/Yankees series.
• Ken Rosenthal likewise waxes poetic about the welcome reminder of Mike Trout’s greatness. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• A Mariners reporter came under fire for using AI to generate post-game interview questions, but she took the flak in stride. (It’s worth noting that said reporter has been doing this since 1997, so while some might not love AI (me), she has certainly proved herself as a capable reporter for almost two decades.) Story by Kristen Wong.
• Drone sightings around Coors Field have authorities issuing serious warnings. (AP)
• A moment that lives in infamy.

• Kiri Oler looks at the pitching arsenal of Seth Lugo.
• Is Taj Bradley an ace? Ben Clemens thinks so.
• A no-hitter lost in the ninth. Tim Stebbins looks at the heartbreaking conclusion of yesterday’s Guardians/Orioles game.
• Eno Sarris has an updated starting pitcher ranking now that we’ve seen several weeks of starts. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Nick Selbe rounds up the most surprising performers in the NL so far this season.
• Stephen J. Nesbitt looks at the insane process major leaguers face when it comes to filing their taxes. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Holy crackers…

• Jay Jaffe breaks down the monster extension of Tigers’ rookie Kevin McGonigle.
• Bryan Hoch reports that Aaron Boone has had his first ejection of the season over a balk.
• Mark Sheldon and Maria Guardado look at the bench-clearing brawl in Thursday’s Giants/Reds game.
• Ken Rosenthal thinks the A’s are going to keep things interesting in the AL West. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• The Dodgers set an MLB spending record in 2025, spending over half a billion dollars in payroll and luxury tax. (AP)
• Cody Stavenhagen explains how the ABS is shrinking the strike zone, leading to an increase in walks. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Getting the real hard-hitting answers here.

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.

Meet the Mets

The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon as they attempt to snap an alarming eight-game losing streak.

The team opened a big new development complex in the Dominican Republic.

Will Sammon wrote about the cracks showing in the Mets’ construction of their roster.

Jon Heyman writes about the Mets paying for the decisions that David Stearns made over the offseason.

Jorge Polanco was unable to play on Wednesday and could hit the injured list today.

The Mets traded left-handed reliever Richard Lovelady to the Nationals after designating for assignment for the fifth time in less than a year.

It’s time to worry about the Mets, writes Laura Albanese.

The Mets insist that their eight-game losing streak won’t define their season.

Around the National League East

The Nationals won a back-and-forth game over the Pirates to secure a series win.

Around Major League Baseball

Mike Trout hit his fifth home run of the Angels’ series at Yankee Stadium, breaking a record in the process as the Angels blew out the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal wrote about Trout after that performance.

The Dodgers picked up right-handed pitcher Chayce McDermott from the Orioles in a trade.

The sale of the Padres is almost complete.

With the ABS system in place, the strike zone has gotten smaller, as the league walk rate is the highest it’s been in decades.

The Tigers scored ten runs in a walk-off win over the Royals.

The Rays beat the White Sox by a score of 5-3.

Landen Roupp and the Giants’ bullpen shut out the Reds.

The Brewers won thanks in part to back-to-back bunts.

The Rangers scored nine runs in a win over the A’s.

This Date in Mets History

The first ever Shea Stadium home opener took place on this date in 1964.

While there were several surprises on the Opening Day roster for the Rockies in 2026, the biggest — and most disappointing in my opinion — was Tanner Gordon being optioned to Triple-A on March 17. 

Even though Gordon’s numbers weren’t amazing on the surface in 2025, when he posted an ERA of 6.33 in 15 starts with a 1.50 WHIP in 75 .1 innings, his growth and potential were notable. He threw seven quality starts, including in five of his last seven starts with 62 strikeouts and a 6-8 record, which helped build his confidence. The Rockies went 7-8 when Gordon was on the mound, giving Colorado a .466 winning percentage compared to their .265 mark on the season.

Not only was Gordon’s performance in 2025 enough to be a strong contender for the starting rotation in 2026, but he then also continued to make a strong case in spring training. In Scottsdale, Gordon went 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in four appearances (three starts) with 12 strikeouts and only two walks in 11 innings, while also working on new pitches and refining his arsenal.

Regardless, Gordon started the season in Triple-A Albuquerque and continued to find success. In three starts, Gordon went 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 15 strikeouts and four walks in 16.1 innings. That’s why I was so thrilled to hear Gordon was called back up to the 26-man roster — where he belongs — on Tuesday.

Considering the early injuries to Jose Quintana and Kyle Freeland, and the early struggles of Michael Lorenzen and Ryan Feltner, the Rockies rotation needs help. Thus far, the Rockies bullpen has been impressive in long relief appearances from Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela, but having a four-man rotation is not a sustainable model for the Rockies. We know the bullpen will be asked to enter many games in the fifth and sixth innings, and they can’t be doing bullpen days every fifth game on top of that. 

That’s why Gordon deserves a spot in the rotation — and not down the road, either. The Rockies need to put Gordon in the rotation now.

Gordon provided dominating evidence of why he belongs in the Big Leagues in his 2026 debut on Wednesday against the Houston Astros. When Quintana didn’t have his best stuff and was lucky to only give up three runs in 3.2 innings of work, the Rockies turned to Jaden Hill to finish the fourth and then Gordon to finish the game. The 29-year-old RHP held Houston’s high-powered offense to two hits in four scoreless innings. He walked one batter and struck out four, including three straight sent down swinging in the sixth inning.

When you dig deeper, Gordon’s performance is even more impressive. Forty of his 60 pitches were strikes, demonstrating the ability to hammer the strike zone, which is a core pitching pillar for Rockies pitching coach Alon Liechman. In addition, he mixed his pitches expertly, mainly relying on a four-seam fastball (45%), but sprinkling in his slider (30%), curveball (13%) and changeup (12%).

“I had a little bit more adrenaline coming out of the ‘pen,” Gordon told Jeremy Rakes of MLB.com. “Close ballgame. There’s a bunch of different factors. The fastball was feeling good. I was riding on that.”

After the game, Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer was pleased with Gordon’s debut.

“The vert was good. TG was awesome today. First time in the big leagues this year. That’s exactly what we saw in spring training. For him to carry it out like that in a big-time game like that — very impressive, and he just fits right in with the rest of the boys out there.”

The vert was indeed good.

Insanely good.

The vert, aka induced vertical break (IVB), which measures the vertical movement generated by a pitcher’s spin (backspin or topspin), excluding the effect of gravity, was working for Gordon. Baseball Savant’s graphics break it down nicely.

Gordon was getting 17.9 inches of rise, which is an increase from the 14.4 inches he averaged last year.

For comparison, Dodger pitcher Alex Vesia leads MLB in IVB with his four-seam fastball at 21.8 inches. Gordon is ranked No. 72, which is the best for Colorado (Quintana is next at No. 121 at 17 inches).

The movement helped Gordon strike out Joey Loperfido, Nick Allen and Brice Matthews on nearly identical four-seamers that were up and in. They all came on the rising four-seamer. Even though it’s a small sample size, Gordon registered a 47.4 Whiff% on his four-seamer and a 28.6 Whiff% with his slider. Gordon’s velocity didn’t overpower hitters, as his four-seam fastball averaged 94.6 mph, but the deception was palpable. 

Having lost seven of their last eight games and heading into a homestand where the Rockies are hosting the Dodgers and Padres, the Colorado pitching staff needs help.

Tanner Gordon is an arm that could help deliver it.

On the Farm

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes 9, Oklahoma City Comets 5

The City Comets jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but the Isotopes rallied back with a four-run eighth to complete the comeback win. Vimael Machín hit two doubles and walked to drive in three runs, Blaine Crim hit two RBI singles, Adael Amador and Chad Stevens each added three hits, one run and one RBI and Drew Avans chipped in two hits and one run for Isotopes. Albuquerque totaled 14 hits. Gabriel Hughes had a rough start, giving up four runs on nine hits in three innings, but Patrick Weigel gave up only one run in the following 4.2 innings and Sammy Peralta put up a perfect 1.1 innings for the win.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 6, Richmond Flying Squirrels 5

Cole Messina hit a two-run homer, Andy Perez hit an RBI double and Dyan Jorge added an RBI single as the Yard Goats fought off a late comeback to win on Thursday night. Carlos Torres threw two scoreless innings to earn the win and Davison Palermo put up a scoreless ninth for the save in Hartford’s win.

High-A: Vancouver Canadians 9, Spokane Indians 7 (10)

In a back-and-forth contest, Vancouver came out on top with a four-run 10th inning to win on Thursday in extra innings. The Canadians scored first, taking a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. Spokane rallied back with a five-run sixth inning to take a 5-3 lead. In the frame, Jacob Humphrey hit a two-run double to start it off and the Indians tied it up when Tommy Hopfe scored on a wild pitch. Alan Espinal walked in a run to help Spokane take the lead and then Kelvin Hidalgo scored on a fielding error for an insurance run.

As it turns out, it wasn’t enough as Vancouver’s Carter Cunningham hit a two-run homer in the ninth to send the game to extra innings. That’s when things got worse and Tucker Toman hit a grand slam in the top of the 10th for the win. Max Belyeu hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th, but it wasn’t enough for another comeback.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies 3, Ontario Tower Buzzers 2 (10)

Matt Klein hit the game-winning, RBI single in the top of the 10th, while Seth Clausen pitched a scoreless ninth for the win and Austin Emener struck out to in a perfect 10th to earn the save for the Grizzlies. Kyle Fossum and Derek Bernard each hit solo homers for Fresno. JB Middleton gave up two runs in five innings in the start for the Grizzlies and Ethan Cole added 3.2 scoreless innings before Clausen entered the game.

Drone sightings in restricted airspace at Colorado Rockies games prompt warning from authorities | Denver Post ($)

This isn’t your average Rockies story. Apparently, there were more than six drone sightings around Coors Field during Opening Day weekend against the Phillies. While no one has been arrested,  the Federal Aviation Administration and FBI issued a warning to keep drones away from the stadium because they violate safety rules. The warning was issued as the Rockies are set to begin a seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Padres today.

Kyle Karros on the Rockies.TV broadcast on Jackie Robinson Day

In case you missed it, Kyle Karros, who went to UCLA like Jackie Robinson, talked about what the legendary No. 42 means to him.

The Ultimate MLB Stadium Rankings for 2026 From Worst to First | Bleacher Report

Coors Field lands at No. 7. Let the debates begin.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Good morning, baseball fans!

The San Francisco Giants are on the road again this weekend, so we’re going to do another temp check. Which is maybe not ideal timing after the week that was, but I feel like they could maybe benefit from the feedback of the fanbase at this point.

This team is not fun to watch and the season has only just barely begun. I’d like to say “small sample size” but this is just about exactly what I expected from them this year given the lack of any significant improvements over the off-season and the seemingly delusional way in which they view themselves as being competitive in a division that has long since left them behind.

As someone with tickets to a game next weekend, if it weren’t for the special event taking place at said game, I would absolutely be considering donating my tickets. It’s a lot to ask from fans to fork out the money for tickets, food, and (in the case of non-local fans) transportation and lodging to watch…this. Especially given the astronomical rise in prices for everything under the sun at the moment.

And listen, I’m not asking for the moon. I know they are highly unlikely to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers any time soon. And that’s okay. Not in my heart, but in my brain. I get that that is how it goes sometimes.

But I would ask that they at least be honest with the fans. Admit that they’re in a period of development or rebuilding or whatever, and then actually commit to that. I can respect that. I can even enjoy that. There is a lot of fun to be had in terrible baseball. I should know! I started covering this team in the second half of 2016 after all, when they were constantly discovering new and demoralizing ways to lose games.

But you know the expression “don’t spit on my leg and tell me it’s raining?” Well, don’t tell us you’re fielding a competitive baseball team with playoff ambitions and then send the circus out onto the field. It’s insulting to the intelligence of everyone involved and sucks any fun that could possibly be had out of the equation.

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants begin their three-game road series against the Washington Nationals this afternoon at 3:45 p.m. PT.

It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.

It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year.  Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side.  They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”.  Good question.   

Yet, teams are doing these deals.  Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets.  Not just one or two rogue groups, either.  What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do?  As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.

Some notes about contracts

Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:

1. True free agent contracts (think Soto, Ohtani, Harper, et. al.)
2. Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
3. Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).

Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract.  I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing.  I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac.   I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.

The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market

One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market.  It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical.  A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons.   Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:

Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb.  First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal.  $700m contract.  10 years.  $70m AAV.  If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded).  Interesting.  Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3.  I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3. 

Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract.  $175m contract.  5 years.  $35m AAV.  Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded. 

So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR?  Seems backwards in a way, given the players.  And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.

An alternative way to compare contracts

A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines). 

Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:

• Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
• Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV) 

That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR.  At least, that is what I’m proposing.

Some more about baseball economics – net present value

One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract.  It’s not really $700m in today’s terms.  A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s.  When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m.  That’s a bit different than $700m.  Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates. 

Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions

A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts.  There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values.  I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.   

Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability.  Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson.  Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.

Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?

I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama.  Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions.  Approximately 7 per year.  How many have occurred this year?  Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal.  Not exactly a stampede, huh? 

What do Pre-Arb deals look like?

As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics.  Almost like there is a playbook on this.

1. The most common age for signing is age 24. 
2. Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
3. The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars). 
4. The usual baseball premiums apply.  Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin.  Relievers are the street sweepers. 
5. Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers). 
6. Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.     
7. Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
8. Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.

Interpreting the Chart

This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions.  Each contract is a point on the chart.  All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms.  I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals).  The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions. 

The red points are the FA contracts.  Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract.  Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.

The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020.  Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?

The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms. 

What is with that arc drawn in the middle?

This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else.  FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani.  PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco.  Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.

Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:

1.  The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
3. The length of contracts, however, are comparable.

In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract.  While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low.  As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise. 

What about inside the arc?

These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents.   Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference. 

When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:

1.  The contracts inside the arc are not so unique.  Almost cookie cutter.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
3. The length of  FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter.  This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.

What do these contracts accomplish?

For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player. 

The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years.  Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr.  Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations.  Then they lose the player to free agency.  If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years).   Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.

For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player.  First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team.  For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.   

How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?

If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool.  They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract.  Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length.  Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime.  How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?

What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?

These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.

For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR.  Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR.  That is for a 4-5 WAR player.  Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract.  For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR.  But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure.  They did it with years.

The key is the AAV and length.  $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable.  What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10^th or 20^th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker.  Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years. 

The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani.  We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline. 

A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years.  2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m.  Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player.  The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more.  We call it “upside”.  The money guys call it “surplus value”.  Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll.  That’s what makes it smart.

For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.

First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years.   The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player. 

Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation.  As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR. 

Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well.  This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player.  And yet again avoids the decline years.

When is it not smart to do this?

Pitchers.  They break.  See Stridor, Spencer.

Older players.  If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old. 

Low ceiling players.  The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial.  They need to discern who really can reach star heights.  There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star. 

High risk players.  Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial.  A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.  

Who plays on this field?

Interestingly, most teams participate.  In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension.  Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals. 

The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently?  They fit into 2 neat categories.  Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets.  The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins.  The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.

Would they?  Should they?

Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions.  They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3^rd and final pre-arb year.  If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration.  Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.

JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model.  23 years old.  Projected star.  Less than 1 year of service time.  The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.

If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.

If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?

The Guardians got a big opening series win vs. The Orioles last night, featuring fans getting excited about Parker Messick and worried about Cade Smith.

Here’s Zack Meisel’s recap of the no-hit bid from Messick. He extolled Austin Hedges’ work behind the plate:

Stephen Vogt talked a little about Cade’s struggles:

Paul Hoynes has news about pranks Stephen Vogt has played on Orioles’ manager Craig Albernaz.

AROUND MLB:

The Tigers beat the Royals and the White Sox lost.

Mike Trout became the first visiting player in the history of Yankee stadium to homer in four straight games.

The Detroit Tigers are on a roll after a perfect 6-0 homestand that erased a five-game losing streak and put them over the .500 mark for the first time since late March. Next up on the agenda are the Boston Red Sox, who will host the Motor City Kitties for a four-game series at Fenway Park starting on Friday night.

The BoSox got off to a slow start to the 2026 campaign, dropping five straight after their season-opening win at the Cincinnati Reds, but have since earned series wins over the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Boston enters the weekend coming off a series loss at the Minnesota Twins, but it did prevent a sweep with a win on Wednesday’s finale.

Opening things up on the mound for the Olde English D is right-hander Casey Mize, whose trademark splitter appears to be finally reaching its long-awaited potential. Opposite him is lefty Ranger Suarez, who has had modest success so far this season.

Make note that Friday night’s tilt will be broadcast on AppleTV, while Monday’s matchup starts at an eye-rubbingly early 11:10 a.m. ET.

Detroit Tigers (10-9) vs. Boston Red Sox (7-11)

Time (ET): 7:15 p.m.
Place: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
SB Nation Site:Over the Monster
Media: AppleTV,Tigers Radio Network

Game 20: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (1-1, 5.02 ERA)

MIZE

SUAREZ

KMOX’s pre/post-game host Matt Pauley sets the stage for us for the Astros upcoming weekend series vs. St. Louis.   

Q:  Is Jordan Walker now the face of the franchise?

A:  Interesting question.  I’m not sure I’d say he’s the face just yet, but his start to the season has been spectacular.   

He was literally one of the worst hitters in baseball the last couple of years, and I’d heard from fans and they were ready to move on from him, but now seeing what he’s doing, it’s unexpected.  Some felt even coming out of spring training that he should’ve been optioned to AAA Memphis.    

On Monday night, he hit his 8th home run in the first 16 games of this season.  The only Cardinals players to accomplish that feat in team history are Stan Musial, Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols.  He’s in rare air.   

Q:  Did you think J.J. Wetherholt would be this strong defensively?   

A:  No, I didn’t.  His reputation is being an incredible hitter, so to see what he’s doing, especially going to his left, he’s getting just about everything which has been a surprise.   

Q:  One of the worst words in sports is “rebuild”.  Are the Cardinals fully immersed in that process?

A:  This is the first true rebuild year.  Prior, they were trying to serve two masters.  Last year didn’t work.   

This is the first time in a while that there’s been clear intention of what they’re doing.  It doesn’t mean they won’t be competitive.  I know in talking to you, you lived through it in Houston 15 years ago.  That was a complete and total tear down.

Q:  Who will we see in this weekend series for the Cardinals’ starters taking the mound?

A:  It will be a mix of Kyle Leahy, who actually throws six different pitches.  He has a nice repertoire as someone coming from the bullpen originally.  

Andre Pallante last year really struggled.  He’s added a changeup but struggled against Boston recently.  You’ll also see Matthew Liberatore,  who is the leader of the rotation.  He was the opening day starter.  They believe he can be the guy to lead this staff.