CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 25: Gleyber Torres #25 celebrates with Wenceel Pérez #46 and Riley Greene #31 of the Detroit Tigers after the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 25, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Tigers defeated the Guardians 4-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’re trying a new series at Royals Review, a daily mid-day question of the day to hear about your opinions on a fun or pressing question affecting the Royals or baseball in general. Chime in and drop your answers below!
News broke late last night that the Tigers had signed the best remaining free agent, Framber Valdez, to a hefty three-year deal worth $115 million. There’s some concern that this signals the Tigers’ intention to trade away Tarik Skubal, but if they’re going to have both lefties in their rotation, they just became much more formidable. Prior to the move, the Tigers and Royals were seen as about even in their odds to win the division, and it seemed reasonable for the Royals to potentially go into the season without making another move to improve their roster, wait to see how Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen do, and then potentially load up at the deadline. That now seems like a much riskier choice.
One initial reaction from a fellow RR writer was that the Royals should really go get the lefty-mashing Miguel Andujar, but he was signed a few minutes later to the Padres on a one-year/$4 million deal. With Austin Hays and Harrison Bader getting signed last week, free-agent, right-handed-hitting outfielders have essentially gone extinct.
I threw together this trade idea last night in response to the moves:
Do the Royals need to make a trade? Or is there a free agent out there you’d still be interested in? Or would you be OK if the Royals continued to wait for the opportune moment to strike?
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 11: Luke Maile #17 of the Kansas City Royals runs out a single during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 11, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Royals announced they have brought back catcher Luke Maile on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Maile appeared in 25 games with the Royals last year, hitting .244/.346/.356 with one home run in 54 plate appearances.
The 34-year-old has played in parts of ten seasons in the big leagues with the Rays, Blue Jays, Brewers, Guardians, and Reds. In 458 career MLB games, he is a lifetime. 209/.277/.320 hitter. Maile is a very solid defensive backstop who has thrown out nearly 30 percent of base-stealing attempts in his career. Last year he excelled in pitch framing metrics.
The Royals had previously signed MLB veteran Jorge Alfaro, who has produced more with the bat over his career, to a minor league deal. The team will likely have Salvador Perez split time behind the plate with rookie Carter Jensen most of the time. But the team may carry a third catcher for the days Salvy is at first base or DH, as they often did last year when Maile was on the team.
The Chicago Blackhawks have made a roster move, as they have assigned defenseman Sam Rinzel to their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Rockford IceHogs.
With the Blackhawks now on their Olympic break, it makes sense that Rinzel is heading back to the IceHogs' roster. With this, the young blueliner will get to continue to get into game action while the Blackhawks are not playing.
Rinzel has appeared in 31 games this season with the Blackhawks, where he has recorded two goals, seven assists, nine points, 30 penalty minutes, and an even plus/minus rating. This is after he recorded five assists in his first nine NHL games with the Blackhawks this past season.
Down in the AHL with the IceHogs this campaign, Rinzel has recorded two goals, eight assists, and 10 points in 19 games.
Rinzel is considered to be one of the Blackhawks' top prospects, as the 2022 first-round pick has plenty of upside. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact he can make with Rockford after being sent back down from here.
Late-game collapses have become far too regular for the Toronto Raptors, as they fell apart in the fourth quarter against the Timberwolves last night.
Luckily, they’ll be able to quickly put that behind them as the Chicago Bulls come to town. Chicago is in the middle of a fire sale ahead of today’s trade deadline, making Toronto a big favorite.
My Bulls vs. Raptors predictions and NBA picks are betting that one player in particular will take advantage of Chicago's depleted roster tonight.
Bulls vs Raptors prediction
Bulls vs Raptors best bet: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points (-115)
The Toronto Raptors have made some baffling decisions late in games, costing them several wins recently, including last night against the Timberwolves. That has me looking at Brandon Ingram.
You can bet the Raptors feed Ingram to overcompensate for last night. Additionally, he’s averaging 23 points while shooting 41.5% from deep over his last eight games.
Then there’s the matchup with the Chicago Bulls. Between injuries and trades, it’s hard to recognize this team. One that already ranked 25th in defensive rating.
Mix in no RJ Barrett, and BI should go Over 21.5 points for the sixth time in nine games.
Bulls vs Raptors same-game parlay
Here's what's going on with the Bulls. Josh Giddey is out, and two starters from their last game, Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White, have been traded away.
They had already allowed 116+ points in five of their last six games. If the Raps can’t get to that number tonight, something is wrong.
Still, someone will have to score for Chicago, and I’m looking at Jalen Smith. Chicago's big man has topped this number in five of his last six games, and the Raptors have little to no presence in the paint.
Bulls vs Raptors SGP
Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points
Jalen Smith Over 12.5 points
Raptors team total Over 115.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Bulls and Raps on parade
The Bulls don't play much defense, and the Raptors should have tired legs. I'm betting on some easy buckets in this game.
Bulls vs Raptors SGP
Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points
Collin Murray-Boyles Over 10.5 points
Jalen Smith Over 12.5 points
Matas Buzelis Over 19.5 points
Bulls vs Raptors odds
Spread: Bulls +8 | Raptors -8
Moneyline: Bulls +270 | Raptors -340
Over/Under: Over 224 | Under 224
Bulls vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Bulls have only cashed the first-half moneyline in 17 of their last 50 games for -19.70 units and a -30% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Raptors.
How to watch Bulls vs Raptors
Location
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
Prime Video
Bulls vs Raptors latest injuries
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PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 29: Rickard Rakell #67 of the Pittsburgh Penguins battles against Connor Murphy #5 of the Chicago Blackhawks at PPG PAINTS Arena on January 29, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Penguins only have one game left before their Olympic break but are experiencing a bumpy road to get to that finish line. It was already announced that Blake Lizotte will be out for tonight’s game against Buffalo due to the birth of his child and that Noel Acciari is a game-time decision while dealing with an illness that kept his off the ice for the morning skate.
To make matters worse, Rickard Rakell was unable to get through the skate and won’t be able to play tonight either.
Updates from Dan Muse: ▪️Arturs Silovs starts in goal ▪️Rickard Rakell left morning skate early – he has a lower-body injury and will not play tonight ▪️Noel Acciari (illness) is a game-time decision ▪️As @PenguinsPR posted, Blake Lizotte is not available for personal reasons
Hayes would surely be in the lineup tonight should Acciari not be able to play now that Rakell is unable to play. If Acciari can go, the team would have an extra forward available.
The bigger question for Rakell as a member of Team Sweden is how big of an injury that he has and what that could mean for his participation in the upcoming Olympic games. The tournament begins on February 11th.
For the Pens, the Rakell injury will mean a new forward playing with Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust tonight, and possibly the NHL debut of another player in Avery Hayes depending on how the health status of Acciari looks by game time.
Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is more than happy to welcome another top-tier left-hander to the team's starting rotation, even if newly signed free agent Framber Valdez will be making a little more money this season than the two-time reigning AL Cy Young award winner.
"Dinners on you," Skubal said in a post on his Instagram story shortly after the Valdez signed his three-year, $115 million deal with the Tigers.
Skubal is in for a pretty sizable payday himself, with his salary arbitration hearing decision expected to be resolved this week. He's seeking $32 million for the upcoming season while the Tigers have countered at $19 million.
Skubal is a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, and the money the Tigers paid to land Valdez could be a sign they expect him to take over the No. 1 starter role if Skubal leaves.
For now though, Tigers fans can relish the idea of both pitchers carrying the team toward a possible World Series appearance.
And the two lefties can look forward to an enjoyable − and likely very expensive − meal together.
October 7, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) pitches the second inning against the Atlanta Braves in game four of the National League divisional series playoff baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Unlike in movies, in real life, the hero doesn’t always triumph over adversity in the end, and even when he does, it might not happen as neatly as one would have hoped to build the perfect storyline. No matter how you slice it, Clayton Kershaw’s postseason career has been one of primarily heartbreak, but we mustn’t let it overshadow its finest moments, of which there were plenty, definitely far more than he gets credit for. Here’s an intro to a series of articles that’ll break down specific memorable Kershaw performances in the postseason that might not debunk his narrative of woes in October but at least add some perspective to it.
On a very basic level, all those shortcomings became irrelevant the moment Kershaw won his first ring in 2020 might reasonably be pointed out. The future Hall of Famer also later went on to be involved in two other championship teams, with minimal roles — injured in 2024, and coming out of the bullpen last season. As fulfilling as those rings likely were, Kershaw, the individual, won them at a different stage in his career. By the time he reached the mountain top for the first time, however impactful and crucial he still was in 2020, the narrative had basically been set in stone, and he was no longer at or particularly near the height of his powers.
Sadly, missing a few postseasons at his prime as the Dodgers as an organization had yet to truly take off, particularly so once the new ownership group really established itself, Kershaw still got plenty of opportunities to be the leading man on a postseason team. Time and time again, those opportunities with rays of hope on different levels ultimately met the same bitter end, oftentimes with the southpaw undone by the lack of support that became pivotal to World Series wins in later years. Certain remarks and a more meticulous evaluation aren’t the specialty of the common fan, and thus, the simplest explanation is the commonly accepted one — Kershaw couldn’t get it done in the playoffs.
Time of year
IP
ERA
FIP
PA/HR
BB rate
K rate
Regular season
2855 1/3
2.53
2.85
48.0
6.3%
27.1%
Postseason
196 2/3
4.62
3.98
25.1
6.7%
26.5%
Anyone taking a journey back through those playoff runs of the middle to late 2010s will quickly recognize a second theme emerging right next to that of eventual eliminations. Without fail and with teams that in no way resembled the current powerhouses the Dodgers can routinely send out there for a postseason run, Kershaw found a way to deliver magnificent outings that rank alongside the very best in the 21st century, not just among Dodger starters but all of baseball.
Another overlooked element is one to which Kershaw was one of the pioneers, alongside the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, that of prolonged exposure to the postseason setting due to an ever-expanding postseason bracket. Out of the three, Kershaw is easily the one who suffered the most in the playoffs, which is justifiable given that this narrative is in no way built around a house of cards, something we’ve already established. Still, it’s no wonder all three of these Hall of Fame starters have postseason ERAs significantly over their regular-season numbers.
As was the case with Kershaw and the other two, those numbers overshadow many instances in which these elite pitchers delivered at the highest possible level on the biggest stage against the toughest opponents. Here we’ll comb through some of the greatest Kershaw postseason performances and the context around those games.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - APRIL 01: Ryan Rollins #13 of the Milwaukee Bucks drives to the basket against Nick Richards #2 of the Phoenix Suns during the second half of a game at Fiserv Forum on April 01, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After more and more reports came out in the last 24 hours that the Bucks were increasingly likely to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo through the deadline, the most recent intel from ESPN’s Shams Charania also indicated they were going to move on to other trades. Almost immediately after, we got notification that Milwaukee had completed their first deal of 2026, sending veterans Cole Anthony and Amir Coffey to Phoenix for big man Nick Richards and former Wisconsin Badger Nigel Hayes-Davis.
A name that might be familiar to casual NBA fans, Richards was a speculative trade target for Milwaukee last year before Charlotte flipped him to Phoenix. He developed into a solid rim-protecting center during four-plus years as a Hornet, topping out at just under 10 PPG and eight RPG, plus good block numbers for a 22–26 MPG guy. The Suns packaged Josh Okogie and three second-round picks for the 6’11” Kentucky alum in January 2025, then he assumed their starting center gig from Jusuf Nurkic, who was later traded to the Hornets in a separate deal. He maintained his typical production, but Phoenix pivoted this offseason: first, they acquired the 10th pick in last year’s draft as part of their return for Kevin Durant, using it to select Duke center Khaman Maluach. Then, in their third trade with Charlotte of 2025, Phoenix dealt a future first for another Duke center, third-year vet Mark Williams.
That all left the 28-year-old Richards on the outside looking in of Phoenix’s big man rotation. He was on the floor for each of their first 21 games, but for more than 10 minutes in just nine of them. Since December 1st, he’s seen only seven games of action, and only once for more than 8 minutes. He hasn’t played since January 13th. This year, he’s averaging 3.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.5 BPG on 49.3% shooting, far below his career 63.1% FG%. But he has a reputation as a good interior defender and occasional lob threat, who also developed a decent touch from floater range prior to this season. Perhaps he’ll develop some P&R chemistry with Kevin Porter Jr. or Ryan Rollins. He’s on an expiring contract worth $5m, and if the Bucks decide they want to keep him around, they’ll be able to use his Bird rights for a new deal over the summer. Our pals at Bright Side Of The Sun had a preview of him before the season that you may want to read.
Hayes-Davis is a name that will definitely be familiar to Wisconsin basketball fans after a stellar career as a Badger. He was a key reserve as a freshman on Wisconsin’s 2014 Final Four team, then a starter and the third-leading scorer on their 2015 squad that fell to Duke in the national championship game. Adding Davis to his surname in 2021 to honor his stepfather, the 6’7” forward spent nine games with three teams way back in 2017–18 before taking his talents to Europe. Throughout multiple seasons in Turkey, Lithuania, and Spain, including with powerhouses Fenerbahce and Barcelona, he became one of the Euroleague’s top performers, setting a single-game scoring record with a 50-point game in 2024. After leading Fenerbahce to their second Euroleague title last year and winning Final Four MVP, NBA teams became interested again.
Phoenix snapped him up on a minimum deal, but in 27 games stateside, he hasn’t looked the part of an NBA player: he’s averaging 1.3 PPG on .326/.125/.500 shooting in just 7.2 MPG. The now 31-year-old hasn’t factored into the Suns’ rotation either: after logging double-digit minutes four times in their first five games, he’s mostly been a deep reserve, with 24 DNPs. Since the new year, he’s only seen garbage time in six contests. It’s possible Milwaukee will just waive him to open up their 15th roster spot, since they have plenty of breathing room beneath the luxury tax threshold. Regardless, he is a free agent this summer as well.
Anthony was signed to a veteran’s minimum this summer after being waived-and-stretched by Memphis, who acquired him as salary ballast in the Desmond Bane trade. Though he had a productive first couple weeks in a Bucks uniform (11.1 PPG on .516/.333/.500 shooting in his first seven games), he soon began to struggle in his typical 15–20 minutes per game. His shooting numbers cratered to 42.4% from the field and a career-worst 30.6% from deep. Even right before Kevin Porter Jr. came back from his opening night injury, he was largely out of the rotation until the last few weeks due to further Bucks injuries. He actually had a few nice nights in that span, but his Milwaukee tenure will go down as disappointing. But for a minimum contract, it’s no real skin off the Bucks’ back.
Coffey was signed to an Exhibit 9 deal and given a standard contract after preseason, but the six-year vet never made an impact in Milwaukee. He saw scarce rotation minutes in the opening few weeks, did basically nothing with them, then was relegated to garbage-time duty until January. Somewhat surprisingly, his contract became guaranteed earlier last month as the Bucks probably hoped they could flip them at the deadline, so it worked out. He too re-entered the rotation due to injuries since mid-January, and actually started Milwaukee’s last two games. He had his best game of the year yesterday evening with 16 points and five boards on 7/8 shooting. Maybe that pushed this deal over the finish line!
All in all, this is a good deal for the Bucks. They took two unproductive vets and turned them into a big man with some real NBA credentials. We’ll see what this means for Bobby Portis and Jericho Sims, the latter of whom has been underwhelming. Financially, this adds about $2.4m to Milwaukee’s payroll, decreasing their tax room from $11.5m to $9.1m. Their standard roster remains full. The motivation here for Phoenix is to duck the tax: Dana Gauruder of Hoops Rumors reports that they’ll drop $2.5m beneath the tax line.
TORONTO, CANADA - OCTOBER 10: Chris Boucher #99 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the game against the Toronto Raptors during Preseason on October 10, 2025 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Boston Celtics used the closing hours of Thursday’s NBA trade deadline to finalize a trade sending center Chris Boucher to the Utah Jazz, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
Update: Reports indicate that the Jazz are also getting a Denver 2027 2nd round pick for taking on Boucher’s salary.
Boston’s decision to cut ties with Boucher comes as no surprise, bringing the organization to just $3.6 million above the luxury tax threshold. It also opens a roster spot for Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla to explore expanded minutes for role players such as Luka Garza and Amari Williams, as the team awaits the arrival of newly acquired center Nikola Vučević.
Boucher initially joined the Celtics as a solution to the team’s need for frontcourt depth. He signed a one-year, $2.3 million deal with Boston in the offseason, but as the season progressed, he gradually fell out of the rotation. Boucher failed to match the 16 minutes he logged on Opening Night in any of his next eight appearances, which were scattered over more than three months. He averaged 2.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 0.3 assists, serving more as a veteran presence than an on-court contributor with a defined role in his brief stint with the team.
During Boucher’s final appearance in a Celtics uniform, the 33-year-old played the final four minutes of a 112-93 blowout win over the Sacramento Kings last Friday. As the clock wound down, Boucher broke one of basketball’s unwritten rules by calling for a pass from Josh Minnott and knocking down a buzzer-beating 3-pointer with the game already decided, scoring his first points in more than two months. Sacramento’s Russell Westbrook made a beeline toward Boucher, while Mazzulla, visibly frustrated, walked off the floor midway through a brief postgame scuffle between the two teams.
He was subsequently listed as out due to personal reasons for the team’s two most recent games against Dallas and Houston.
The trade marks the first transaction between Boston and Utah since former Celtics executive Austin Ainge reunited with his father, Danny Ainge, now the Jazz’s team president.
This story will be updated as additional details emerge.
Wing unable to complete training session on Thursday
Daly the leading alternative if Exeter player ruled out
Immanuel Feyi-Waboso has given England a late injury scare before they start their Six Nations campaign against Wales on Saturday after pulling up in training.
The Exeter wing was unable to complete England’s session at Pennyhill Park due to a leg injury with Steve Borthwick’s medical staff investigating its extent on Thursday night.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 31: Jose Alvarado #15 of the New Orleans Pelicans reacts during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on January 31, 2026 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Jose Alvarado is no Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Jose Alvarado is a New York Knick.
Alvarado might have been the most rumored target not named Giannis for the Knicks all season long, and unlike their attempt at prying Antetokounmpo, the Knicks had enough to trade for Alvarado, finally pulling the trigger hours before the trade deadline.
The Knicks are sending Dalen Terry, two second-round picks and cash to the Pelicans for Alvarado, sources said. https://t.co/Dqb6As7uAI
Shams Charania of ESPN reported that New York acquired the Brooklyn native for Dalen Terry, who the Knicks acquired for Guerschon Yabusele last night, two second-round picks, and cash.
Alvarado, who is averaging 7.9PPG, 3.1APG, 2.8RPG, and 0.9SPG this season, brings a level of toughness and physicality the Knicks have missed at times this year. And while plugging in a 6-foot point guard into a rotation that already includes the undersized Jalen Brunson and Deuce McBride may seem both redundant and unnecessary, this is still a short-term upgrade considering the Knicks brought in a proven rotation player for Yabusele, who had been unproductive in his limited minutes thus far.
Alvarado also gives the Knicks more flexibility in the kinds of lineups they can field. If head coach Mike Brown chooses to do so, he can now play McBride next to Brunson much more, without worrying about back-up point guard minutes. His ball-handling abilities will be a breath of fresh air for a team that lacks playmaking and creativity. That should allow him to thrive both next to Brunson, as well as the other starters, and more specifically, Karl-Anthony Towns, who has looked and performed better next to Tyler Kolek, a more traditional point guard. Additionally, Alvarado also gives them an additional point-of-attack defender, something they’ve badly needed.
His counting stats may not stick out, and his splits of 41.8%/36.3%/83.3% aren’t going to wow anyone either. But his contagious energy, combined with having his hometown crowd behind him, should lead to some fun and memorable moments.
To reiterate, Jose Alvarado is truly appealing to me on the condition that he opts in to his deal and extends six months after a trade. That would help the Knicks enter the upcoming offseason below the second apron, setting them up to finally go above it for the 2027-28 season
Ultimately, this move will be judged on two things, though.
One, obviously, will be how he plays. Seeing as Yabusele spent most of the season looking like one of the worst free-agent signings this decade, that likely won’t be a very high hurdle.
And two, Alvarado also gives them an additional point-of-attack defender, something they’ve badly needed. The 27-year-old has a $4.5 million player option for next year, and as Jeremy Cohen cleverly pointed out, if he can opt in, it would give the Knicks some much-needed flexibility, as it would help them enter the offseason below the second apron.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 09: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves smiles in the dugout during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Truist Park on September 3, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Quiet as kept, FanGraphs has released their updated MLB Playoff Odds for the upcoming 2026 season. As of right now with the offseason beginning to transition into the ever-optimistic days of spring training, FanGraphs’ projection model feels like the Atlanta Braves should have very good reason to feel optimistic heading into the regular season.
While FanGraphs figures that the American League is shaping up to be a big ol’ Battle Royale between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles), the Tigers and the Mariners, the picture in the NL figures to be a bit clearer. As of right now, while the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to not just win the National League but retain their World Series crown yet again, the projection model figures that the Braves have the best shot at dethroning the Southern California juggernaut.
FanGraphs is currently projecting that the Braves will win 92 games (I’m rounding up and will do so for the rest of the article, when necessary) and lose 71 — giving them a 47 percent chance to reclaim the NL East title, a 39 percent chance to get a bye, a 40 percent shot at a wild card berth and then an 87 percent shot at simply making the Postseason. All that culminates with FanGraphs’ model giving the Braves an 11 percent shot at winning the World Series — good for second-best odds in not just the NL but in all of baseball right now. Now granted, the Dodgers are currently standing head-and-shoulders over the field with a projected 27 percent shot at winning the World Series but still, Atlanta’s odds are nothing to sneeze at.
It also goes to show that the model appears to be very impressed with the job that the Braves have done to fortify their bench in order to withstand the losses of both Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the initial portion of the season. It also goes to show the faith that the model has in Atlanta’s star players performing like stars going forward. ZiPS is currently projecting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin to lead the way in terms of batter WAR and they also figure that Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach should serve as a pretty formidable top three for Atlanta’s rotation when it comes to pitcher WAR.
Now, as the saying goes: You can’t play the game on a spreadsheet. The Braves have had some rosy projections for a few years now and they’ve managed to come well short of those projections for the past couple of seasons. The team still has to go out there on the diamond and get the job done and they’ll of course have to deal with two very tough divisional foes in the form of the Mets (projected for 90 wins) and the Phillies (projected for 87). This certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Braves and ultimately it’ll just come down to this team living up to the back of their respective baseball cards. We all know that this core group of players is capable of doing great things on the field — we’ve seen it over the years. Again, they’ve just got to get the job done.
Either way, the Braves once again have some high expectations heading into the upcoming season. Here’s hoping that they’ll meet those expectations so we can have ourselves another fun season around here. We’ll see what happens!
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
FanGraphs has given us some projections as to how the 2026 season will go for the Phillies. One projection is optimistic about their chances at winning a third straight division title, while the other thinks that run ends at two. So as not to be accused of being hostile to those with a more pessimistic outlook on the team, I’ll discuss both.
Dan Szymborski annually creates his ZiPS projections, which evaluates a full range of outcomes for each player on each team, and using that, runs a million simulations of the season. ZiPS seems to like the Phillies, predicting a 91-win season and a first-place finish in the East.
Here’s a look at the NL East projections from FanGraphs with their ZiPS Projections.
The #Phillies are: -projected to win the NL East -Have a 71.5% chance to make playoffs. -Have a 7.6% chance to win the WS which is second to the Dodgers (18.2%) pic.twitter.com/7lau2E3hd3
Some of the key ZiPS predictions for individual Phillies:
Trea Turner will lead the team in WAR, mostly because the defensive improvements of 2025 will stick.
Bryce Harper will once again not be elite, hitting 29 home runs and playing poorly on defense.
Justin Crawford will have a decent rookie season with 1.6 WAR.
Zack Wheeler makes 21 starts, and is solid, if not spectacular with a 3.43 ERA.
Andrew Painter makes 24 starts with a 4.80 ERA.
It’s somewhat confusing that ZiPS likes the Phillies’ chances considering it doesn’t seem to be especially optimistic about any of their individual players’ seasons – except perhaps for Adolis Garcia (a projected 28 home runs) and J.T. Realmuto (.742 OPS with 15 home runs).
FanGraphs has also released their playoff odds for 2026, and these are less positive towards the Phillies’ chances. They expect the Phillies to fall to third place in the East behind the Braves and Mets. They give the Phillies an 18.9% chance of winning the division, and a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs. Those playoff chances are fourth best in the National League behind the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers (99.1%!).
It makes sense that they’re so bullish on the Braves. That team has been ravaged by injuries the past two seasons, and if everyone on the roster is healthy and playing close to capabilities, they’ve probably got the most talent, particularly in the starting rotation.
Nor is it a major surprise that the Mets are ahead of them. Their lineup is expected to hit a lot of home runs, and they have a strong pitching rotation with the addition of Freddy Peralta. (Although Fangraphs doesn’t think Peralta will have that good of a year.)
If this depresses you, it would be helpful to look at Fangraph’s projections for the 2025 season. They thought the Phillies had just a 21.1% chance of winning the division, while giving the Braves a 64.2% chance. And in 2024, they thought the Braves had an 88.8% of winning the East. (Like I said, the Braves have suffered a lot of misfortune in recent years, not that I’m complaining.)
I suspect that most Phillies fans will treat these projections the way many Americans treat information these days: Take whatever matches up with your pre-existing notions, and treat that as valid, while largely ignoring whatever doesn’t. If you already believed the Phillies would be a playoff team, then this helps to reinforce that belief. If you think the Phillies are on the decline and they’re going to fall behind the Mets and Braves, well, this provides some ammunition for you as well!
Eight months from now, we’ll know which side was correct.
Feb 4, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo looks on from the bench during the first quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
After gauging offers for several days for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Milwaukee Bucks have indicated to teams that they are keeping their two-time MVP through today’s trade deadline. ESPN’s Shams Charania first reported the news today, with several others following up to confirm the story.
This has been the prevailing sentiment over the past couple of days. Jamal Collier of ESPN put out an article today that backs up much of the other reporting, saying the Bucks felt no pressure to deal Giannis at today’s deadline:
“The Bucks don’t feel the pressure to move Giannis Antetokounmpo on Thursday, team sources told ESPN hours ahead of the deadline. Rival executives have grown dubious in the past 24 hours about whether the Bucks would actually move their franchise star after more than 12 seasons together.“
Jake Fischer later spoke to a team executive who said the Bucks were “never serious” about trading Giannis at the deadline.
The Bucks got right to work adding new pieces to the squad after the news, with Shams reporting that the Bucks are sending Cole Anthony and Amir Coffey to the Phoenix Suns for center Nick Richards and wing Nigel Hayes-Davis. This deal fits right in line with what Collier said the Bucks would do from this morning:
“Milwaukee has still scoured the market for a potential upgrade to its roster, sources told ESPN, hoping to benefit from a team looking to offload salary in the future.”
Bucks fans likely no longer have to sit in dread by their phone, waiting for a potential Giannis deal to go down. After months of ESPN’s prognosticators saying the best offer was from Golden State, or that it was 60/40 he would head down to South Beach, the silence will be bliss. This isn’t a full-fledged guarantee that they won’t revisit a potential deal in the offseason, but at least Giannis should be in green and white for the rest of the 2025–26 season.
