Hey, look at that… it’s the most important series of 2026 so far.

The White Sox are 45-40 with a +25 run differential, seventh in MLB in wRC+ at 106, 23rd in baserunning runs above average at -2.4, 14th in Defense at -9.9, 15th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.34 (4.26 FIP) and 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.13 (4.31 FIP).

The Guardians are 45-42 with a -8 run differential, 25th in MLB in wRC+ at 91, 9th in baserunning runs above average at +3.1, ninth in Defense at -4.8, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.66 (4.01 FIP) and 13th in bullpen ERA at 3.95 (3.87 FIP).

MATCHUPS:
Game one, Thursday, 6:40PM ET Cecconi RHP 4.18 ERA vs. Martin RHP 3.00 ERA (2.81 FIP)
Game two, Friday, 7:10PM ET Williams RHP 3.81 ERA vs. Kay LHP 4.56 ERA (4.86 FIP)
Game three, Saturday, 7:10PM ET Messick LHP 2.85 ERA vs. Burke RHP 4.39 ERA (4.07 FIP)
Game four, Sunday, 2PM ET Bibee RHP 3.69 ERA vs. Fedde RHP 4.47 ERA (6.06 FIP)

If Travis Bazzana and Kyle Manzardo have a good series, the Guardians should win this series. If they don’t, they won’t.

Watch out for freakin’ Randal Grichuk who is putting up a 167 wRC+ somehow right now, Sam Antonacci at 135 wRC+, Miguel Vargas at 135 wRC+, Tristan Peters at 118 wRC+ and Colson Montgomery at 117 wRC+. And, don’t excuse the Guardians’ this series because Jose Ramirez is hurt, as the White Sox’ best hitter, Munetaka Murakami, has yet to face Cleveland pitching this season. Chase DeLauter at 116 wRC+, Travis Bazzana at 111 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio at 106 wRC+, Kahlil Watson at 103 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo at 102 wRC+, Austin Hedges (STILL!!!) at 102 wRC+ and David Fry at 101 wRC+ lead the Guardians.

Hopefully, Cade Smith, Carl Willis and them boys can iron out things at the back end of games and make this series a lot more paltable for Guardians’ fans than the recent three-game stretch in Chicago was. That late inning Pope Leo magic is something to watch for.

Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the end of the month upon us, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.

Note: Records and stats are for games played as of Tuesday night.

First Place: Milwaukee Brewers (52-31)

Top Position Player: Brice Turang (2.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski (4.3 fWAR)

In our initial check-in at the end of April, the Brewers sat in third place, 3.5 games out of first. After yet another winning month in June, Milwaukee has gone 36-17, opened up a 5.5-game lead in the Central, and trail only the Dodgers for the best record in all of MLB.

You don’t do that without having a good team top to bottom, but the headliner of this Brewers’ squad has been pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Pretty much every start, he manages to set some new stat for fastest pitches thrown by a starting pitcher, and topped 105 MPH recently.

He also has the overall stats to match, with a 1.45 ERA and a 1.84 FIP.

While “The Miz” gets the headlines, they’ve gotten good efforts from all over the field. One notable one has come from former Yankee Jake Bauers, who has a 144 wRC+ in his 74 games.

Second Place: Chicago Cubs (48-38, 5.5 GB)

Top Position Player: Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.1 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Ben Brown (2.0 fWAR)

Despite the Brewers remaining on fire, the Cubs have only lost a game’s worth of ground since the end of May. They were pretty good themselves in June, going 16-10.

That being said, this could be a bit of a danger zone for the Cubs. At time of writing, they have 10 different pitchers on the injured list, including their ace from last year Cade Horton. Of the starters they still have healthy, Shota Imanaga is probably the best, but even he’s been below average for the season.

Throughout all those injuries, the Cubs have been kept going by a good offense. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been excellent in all areas of the game. Of their most used players are every position, only one dips below a 90 OPS+ on the season.

Third Place: St. Louis Cardinals (44-38, 7.5 GB)

Top Position Player: JJ Weatherholt (3.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Dustin May (1.8 fWAR)

The Cardinals remain pesky and as of now, they’re currently tied for the final NL Wild Card spot.

On offense, a decent chunk of their lineup has below average numbers for the season, it’s just the ones that don’t have generally been very good. Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Lars Nootbaar all have an OPS+ over 120. JJ Weatherholt is at 117 and has defense that also grades out very well. Nelson Velázquez has been around the league without much success, but he’s been a revelation in St. Louis so far, with a 180 OPS+ is his 16 games so far.

One interesting thing to watch will be their pitching, though. Michael McGreevy had put up a good ERA so far, but has a FIP that suggests that might not be sustainable. On the other hand, Dustin May has a FIP that suggests he might be a bit better than his ERA. Andre Pallante is slightly above average according to both, and the rest of their rotation has been below average.

Fourth Place: Pittsburgh Pirates (43-43, 10.5 GB)

Top Position Player: Bryan Reynolds (2.5 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft (2.8 fWAR)

The Pirates aren’t too far out of the last NL Wild Card, just a game in the win column behind the aforementioned Cardinals. They also have the raw talent that could go on a run, but they’ll need some things to go their way.

On the mound, Paul Skenes has been perfectly good, just not the Paul Skenes we saw win the NL Cy Young last year. His 3.10 ERA and 2.75 FIP is strong, and he and Braxton Ashcraft have provided a nice little duo at the top of the rotation, just not quite enough for the Pirates to take a clear step forward.

On offense, they’ve gotten good performances from all over the roster, although two of their more talented hitters — Spencer Horwitz and Oneil Cruz — are currently on the IL. If young prospect Konnor Griffin can take a step forward over the rest of the year and there’s not much regression elsewhere, it wouldn’t be that crazy if the Pirates stole the last NL playoff spot.

Fifth Place: Cincinnati Reds (39-45, 13.5 GB)

Top Position Player: Elly De La Cruz (2.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Chase Burns (2.8 fWAR)

The Reds record isn’t terrible considering that they’re a last-place team, but if you’ve only seen them take two out of three over the Yankees, you might not realize that they’ve been pretty bad for a while now. At the end of April, they led the division, and were 3.5 games up on the Brewers. Since then, they’ve gone 19-34, losing 17 games worth of ground in the process.

In June, their offense sputtered, averaging just 3.81 runs per game. The top end of their lineup — aka the likes of Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart — has been perfectly good, it just falls off a cliff. While he’s on the IL at the moment, Ke’Bryan Hayes has posted a 16 OPS+. I repeat: 16. Their pitching outside Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, and a couple bullpen arms has also been a bit of a mess.

The Colorado Rockies enjoyed a well-rounded victory Wednesday night against the Miami Marlins and will now look to secure a series split in today’s finale.

Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.83 ERA) will make the start for the Rockies as he looks to continue the success he found in June. Lorenzen was roughed up in his first outing last month, but seemed to figure some things out and then delivered four solid starts. He has worked at least five innings in each of his last four outings while allowing more than two runs just one time. He has continued to keep walks in check and can get his strikeout stuff working more consistently to keep hitters off balance. In his last start, he allowed two runs on seven hits over 5.2 innings with just one strikeout. Lorenzen has been quite successful against the Marlins in his career, posting a 2.62 ERA over 18 appearances, including seven starts. His first start of 2026 came against the Marlins, where he allowed three runs on seven hits over 4.1 innings of work.

Ryan Gusto (0-2, 5.06 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins. Gusto made 27 appearances last season, primarily with the Houston Astros, before getting sent to Miami at the trade deadline. He made just three appearances with the Marlins before being sent down in August, and then got injured when he was recalled near the end of the month. He spent the first two months of 2026 in Triple-A, where he posted a 3.83 ERA in 10 appearances. He was recalled to the big leagues at the start of June, throwing 20.1 innings with a 5.31 ERA over six games, including five starts. He has generally worked into the fifth inning but has yet to complete five innings. He hasn’t given up many hits and can get strikeouts, but he’s been on a shorter leash when starting games. In his last outing, he threw 3.1 shutout innings and allowed just three hits with four strikeouts on 63 pitches.

First Pitch: 1:10 pm MDT

TV: Rockies TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

Lineups:

Series finale.

📺: https://t.co/pMAEOPHNJ8
👂: @MarlinsRadio, @radiomambi710, 560 WQAM
⏰: 3:10 PM ET#FightinFishpic.twitter.com/8nU6Noi4Ac

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 2, 2026

Thursday afternoon baseball 😍 pic.twitter.com/1XRjKZBQYa

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) July 2, 2026

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The Cubs’ 10 walk-off wins have come in 43 home games, just a bit more than half the home season. That means nearly a quarter of the home wins in 2026 have ended in a pile-up around a Cubs player and an excited crowd at Wrigley Field.

The franchise record for walk-offs in a season is 14, set in 1930. Walk-offs aren’t something you can necessarily predict or shoot for, but there’s a real chance that record is broken this year. The MLB record is 17, set by the Pirates in 1959, and tied by them in 1977.

There have been 13 seasons in the Modern Era (since 1900) when the Cubs have had more than 10 walk-off wins. I thought I’d take a brief stroll through that history on today’s off day, look at each of the years and how the Cubs finished that season, and pick one game from each year that I think was the most memorable.

(A tip o’ the cap to BCB’s JohnW53, who compiled the list of years for me.)

1930: 14 walk-offs

The Cubs nearly won a second straight NL pennant in 1930. They held first place from Aug. 11 to Sept. 12, and won 90 games. They only missed out on the pennant because the Cardinals went 21-4 in September. That resulted in team owner William Wrigley, incensed because the Cubs didn’t win, firing manager Joe McCarthy, a colossal blunder.

All 14 of the walk-offs happened by Aug. 29. In those days teams had long homestands and long road trips and the Cubs played 21 of their last 26 games on the road.

The best of the 14 has to be the game of June 25, a 13-12 win over the Phillies. The Cubs trailed 8-4 going to the bottom of the seventh, but led 12-10 before the Phillies tied it in the top of the ninth. The Cubs got the tying run to third on a dropped pop-up, a sacrifice bunt and a passed ball, and then Gabby Hartnett singled in the game-winner.

1932: 13 walk-offs

This time, the Cubs took first place in the league Aug. 11 and held on to it, winning the pennant by four games.

Again, all the walk-offs were done early, by Sept. 5, mainly because they had another long road trip in September, 18 games.

The best walk-off in ‘32 was one I’ve written about here many times, most recently last November. Here’s how it went down:

Kiki Cuyler pretty much singlehandedly won this game, 10-9 over the Giants in 10 innings. He had five hits in six at-bats. His single in a four-run Cubs ninth tied the game 5-5. The Giants scored four in the top of the 10th, taking a 9-5 lead. In the last of the 10th, after the first two men were out, the Cubs scored two and have two on for Cuyler, who hit a walkoff home run for a 10-9 win, their 12th straight.

In addition to all of that, there was a total eclipse of the sun that day, which, though not 100 percent total in Chicago, did darken the sky somewhat an hour or so before game time. Also, during the game the Cubs batted out of order at one point, but no one noticed, so they got away with it.

Fun times. It was the Cubs’ 12th consecutive win, in a streak that eventually reached 14.

2015: 13 walk-offs

There were lots of fun walk-offs in this 97-win season, but I think the one I remember most was one over Cleveland, in a game rescheduled to Aug. 24 because of an earlier rainout.

The Cubs took a 1-0 lead to the ninth, when Jon Lester ran out of gas and allowed the tying run.

With two out in the bottom of the inning, Kris Bryant launched Zach McAllister’s first pitch into the right-field bleachers for the walk-off 2-1 win. That led to what was termed the “Strop Strut”:

Watch Pedro Strop “strut” the final 60 or so feet home alongside Bryant. Fun times.

1915: 12 walk-offs

Despite all the walk-off wins, the 1915 Cubs, playing in their final season at West Side Grounds, finished 73-80 and in fourth place in the National League.

This is a very long time ago and so I just picked a game that looked fun – 14-13 over the Cardinals on June 24. The Cubs led 7-3 after five, then gave up a five-spot to St. Louis in the sixth. The Cubs led 10-9 going to the ninth, but the Cardinals scored four in the ninth to go up 13-10. The Cubs then matched those four runs, winning the game on a steal of home by Heinie Zimmerman.

1923: 11 walk-offs

Again, this is over a century ago. The team finished fourth, 12.5 games out of first, but had some memorable wins.

On July 26, they trailed the Giants 10-6 going to the bottom of the eighth. A run in that inning made it 10-7, then in the ninth the Cubs had five straight hits – single, single, double, single, single – and the last single scored the fourth run of the inning for an 11-10 win.

1927: 11 walk-offs

Ninety-nine years ago, the Cubs finally returned to contention, nine years after their last pennant. They held first place for much of July and August before fading in September.

They had fallen into second place in early August when a 6-5 walk-off win over the Phillies put them back on top.

The Cubs led that game 4-0 going to the eighth but the Phillies scored five to take the lead. A home run by Earl Webb in that inning tied the game 5-5 and three ninth-inning singles, the last by Webb, won the game.

1931: 11 walk-offs

The Cubs were never really in contention in 1931, finishing third, 17 games out of first place.

In the first game of a doubleheader Sept. 13 against the Braves, the Cubs led 7-5 going to the ninth, when Charlie Root gave up two runs to tie the game. No one scored in the 10th. In the bottom of the 11th, a one-out double was followed by an intentional walk, then a ground out moved the runners up a base. Another intentional pass loaded the bases, and Rogers Hornsby hit a pinch-hit walk-off grand slam for an 11-7 win. It was one of 11 slams Hornsby hit in his career, but the only one as a pinch-hitter.

1936: 11 walk-offs

The Cubs again held first place in ‘36 for much of July and early August, but went 29-31 in August and September to finish second at 87-67, five games behind the pennant-winning Giants.

On May 6, the Cubs trailed the Braves 8-6 going to the bottom of the ninth. RBI hits by Chuck Klein and Frank Demaree tied the game at 8. In the bottom of the 10th a walk and sac bunt was followed by another intentional walk. Augie Galan struck out, but Billy Herman singled in the game-winner and the Cubs won 9-8.

1946: 11 walk-offs

The year after the ‘45 pennant, the Cubs finished third at 82-71, but still gave 1.3 million fans – the largest total since 1930 – some thrills with a lot of walk-off wins.

On June 6, the Cubs led the Giants 6-0 going to the top of the eighth, but allowed a pair of three-run innings in the eighth and ninth and the game was tied. It wound up in extras. No one scored in the 10th or 11th. In the bottom of the 12th with one out, the Cubs loaded the bases on a single, forceout that allowed the runner at first to advance, intentional walk and another single.

Frank Secory, who played three years for the Cubs from 1944-46 and who later served as a National League umpire from 1952-70, pinch-hit for pitcher Hank Wyse. He hit a walk-off grand slam, one of just seven home runs he hit in his MLB career. The Cubs won 10-6.

1967: 11 walk-offs

Now we’re getting into more “modern” times. The Cubs had only one winning season between 1947 and 1966, but suddenly were in contention by mid-1967.

On July 22, the Cubs trailed the Giants 5-3 going to the bottom of the eighth. Randy Hundley’s RBI double in that inning made it 5-4. In the ninth, Billy Williams homered with one out to tie the game and Ron Santo followed with a triple. The Giants intentionally walked the next two hitters to load the bases with one out, and Hundley singled in the game-winner for a 6-5 win.

The Cubs had been tied for first briefly earlier that month, but fell behind the Cardinals. This walk-off win tied them for first again, the first time they’d been in first place that late in the season since 1945. They faded and finished third, but it was still their best season in 22 years.

1969: 11 walk-offs

Much has been written about this star-crossed season, so I’ll just say that the best walk-off win of this year was a game that’s one of the most famous in Cubs history, the Opening Day walk-off home run by Willie Smith that gave the Cubs a 7-6 win and kind of turbocharged that whole summer.

Here it is:

1984: 11 walk-offs

This time, the Cubs did make the postseason (and we won’t talk about that) with a 96-win season, their most wins since 1945.

No question, we have another top walk-off in Cubs history, perhaps the single most famous game in Cubs history, the Sandberg Game.

While Ryno had his amazing game that pushed him into fame that afternoon, the walk-off hit was delivered by backup infielder Dave Owen (with Harry Caray’s radio call) [VIDEO].

1996: 11 walk-offs

This season did not end well. With the Cubs five games out of first with 16 left, they went 2-14 (and started 1997 0-14, so… a pretty bad run).

But ‘96 was fun up to mid-September, anyway.

On Opening Day at Wrigley Field, April 1, the Cubs had a 4-3 lead in the eighth but the Padres tied the game off Doug Jones, yet another former Astros reliever who had a bad year with the Cubs.

In the 10th, the Cubs loaded the bases off future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman on two singles and a walk.

Mark Grace singled in the winning run for a 5-4 win. Here’s that game-winning hit:

The Atlanta Braves are in position to win their first series since June twentieth as they take on the Cardinals in the finale this evening.

Hurston Waldrep is set to make his second appearance this season and his first start since late September last year. Waldrep was touching speeds upwards of ninety-nine MPH before he got injured in February where loose bodies were discovered in his elbow. Although Waldrep walked four hitters in two innings in his return, the front office has decided to give him the nod today.

If Waldrep can show what he did last season and Reynaldo López can pitch anywhere close to the way he did last night, the Braves are in much better position than they were just a few weeks ago.

Waldrep has never faced the Cardinals, and none of the players on their roster have faced him before either. With no history of matchups this is going to be fun to see the outcome.

Dustin May will be taking the mound tonight, and he is having as much of an up and down season as one could imagine. He currently holds an ERA of 4.30 over fifteen starts and 83.2 innings pitched. On the fifteenth of June, which was two starts ago he pitched a complete game shutout where he allowed one hit, zero walks, and struck out nine against the Padres. However, in his last start where he faced the Royals, he only lasted 2.0 innings where he gave up six hits to include two HRs, six earned runs, and a walk with two strikeouts. May has three starts where he gave up at least six runs and did not last more than four innings but also has seven starts where he gave up two or fewer runs.

May spent six seasons with the Dodgers so it makes sense that Mike Yastrzemski has faced him the most on the Braves. Yastrzemski has fourteen at-bats against him and has a .500 average and 1.206 OPS. It will be shocking if he does not get the start tonight. Kim has seen him eleven times, but let’s be honest, none of that matters with the way Kim is hitting. Outside of that, no one has faced May in more than eight at-bats and most of the Braves have struggled. Riley has a 2.000 OPS with 2 HRs in his five at-bats against May, and Smith has a HR in his three at-bats, but no other starter than the ones mentioned have an OPS above .400 in their small sample sizes.

This game will likely come down to what version we will see of Dustin May and if Hurston Waldrep can limit walks. A win this evening and a strong showing from Waldrep could go a long way to helping the Braves get back on the right track.

First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Thursday, July 2nd, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, , Atlanta, Ga

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Nationals and Orioles linked up for a pretty minor trade last night. Paul Toboni acquired the recently DFA’d Kyle Nicolas in exchange for minor league infielder Randal Diaz. However, this trade has deeper significance because it is the first time that the Nats and O’s have ever made a trade together.

For the very first time in their histories, the Nationals and Orioles have made a trade: The Nats have acquired RHP Kyle Nicolas in exchange for INF Randal Diaz.

Nicolas was optioned to Triple-A Rochester.

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) July 2, 2026

This is further proof that tensions are thawing between the two beltway rivals. For most of the Nats’ time in DC, the two teams have not had a great relationship, largely due to the contentious MASN deal. Let’s just say that Ted Lerner and Peter Angelos were not exactly best buds.

However, it is a new day now. Both Lerner and Angelos have passed away. Ted’s son Mark now runs the Nats and the O’s were sold to David Rubenstein. There has also finally been a resolution to the MASN debacle. As we know, the Nats are now on MLB TV.

Now that those factors have been ironed out, it makes sense that these teams would trade together, even if this is just a small deal. The O’s and Nats are just two teams making a deal now. While there will always be a rivalry, it is not like these teams are division rivals. Despite being in the same region, they are not city rivals like the Mets or Yankees either. 

As the years go by, we should see more trades between these two teams, especially under these two GM’s. Both Paul Toboni and Mike Elias are transaction happy executives. Both love hunting the waiver wire and searching for value, and that is exactly what is happening here.

As we get into the trade itself, the Nats picked up a hard throwing, but erratic reliever in Kyle Nicolas. The 27 year old had a nice year back in 2024, pitching to a sub-4 ERA in 51 outings. Last season, he regressed a bit, posting a 4.74 ERA in 31 outings. However, his control was taking steps in the right direction, with his walk rate at a not great but manageable 10.8%. 

After an offseason trade from the Pirates to the Reds, all of Nicolas’ control gains just vanished. He walked a preposterous 31% of hitters, and his control in the minors for both the Reds and O’s was not much better. Now, the Nats are taking a shot on him, hoping to get him back at least near the zone. There is a good thread about some potential solutions to his command crisis.

Kyle Nicolas has several traits I'd bet on: FB velocity, high spin rates, 92nd percentile extension—great ingredients held back by control.

Cincy (and later Baltimore) tried a couple of changes to help him find the zone that are worth exploring.

'25 vs. '26: pic.twitter.com/qCzTd337KL

— George (@georgerlewis) July 2, 2026

The control will never be good, but if it can get back to where it was in 2024 and 2025, he can be a solid piece of a bullpen. Nicolas’ stuff is very loud. He has a fastball that averages 97 and can touch triple digits. The righty also has two deadly breaking balls with his curve and slider. Last year, both got whiffs over 45% of the time, with his curve getting a 50% whiff rate.

At just 27 years old, this is a decent dart throw for the Nats. After picking him up, they immediately sent him to AAA. It is clear that Nicolas needs to make some serious tweaks to improve his control, but if he can do that, the righty has proven he can have success in this league.

This is also a solid deal for the O’s. Any time you can get minor league depth for an arm that was DFA’d, you take it. Randal Diaz is also not having a bad season. The 2024 5th rounder had a dreadful pro debut in Low-A, posting an OPS below .600. However, the 23 year old has a .766 OPS with High-A Wilmington this year. He has 5 homers and 13 steals to go with a .253 average.

The Orioles have traded Kyle Nicolas to the Nationals for High-A infielder Randal Diaz.

Diaz, 23, is a career .235 hitter in the minors with a .652 OPS.

Here’s a look at Diaz hitting a walk-off homer earlier this season: pic.twitter.com/7QG15YkQM0

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) July 2, 2026

The Nats have so many young infielders that Diaz never really had a shot of flourishing here. This move also allows Eli Willits, Ronny Cruz and Angel Feliz to man the infield just about every day in Wilmington. The Nats also needed to find playing time for youngster Jorgelys Mota, who just got activated from the IL. 

There really was just not a spot for Diaz, so he was a good candidate to be moved in a minor trade like this. In the first trade between these two teams, Mike Elias and Paul Toboni combined to make a small, but sensible move. The O’s bolstered their minor league infield depth, while the Nats got a high velocity righty they will try to fix.

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Tonight, my MLB strikeout props are looking to back steady, consistent arms while fading a few of the game’s more vulnerable starters.

Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looks to get our weekend started, so here are my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, July 2. 

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Strikeout prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (-121)

As I mentioned in my moneyline predictions piece today, I think this is a letdown spot for the Detroit Tigers after coming off a solid series against the walking corpse we refer to as the New York Yankees. They now draw a red-hot Texas Rangers team led by Nathan Eovaldi, who has been striking out hitters at a very high rate.

On the other side, the Tigers have not been striking out a ton, but this is still one of the most inconsistent offenses in baseball. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six bats own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate. Three of those six bats are 30% or worse.

With Eovaldi owning a strikeout rate above 30% over his last three outings, I expect that success to continue tonight. Take this down to -130 if you must.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, DSN

Strikeout prop: Bryce Miller Over 7.5 strikeouts (+121)

Seattle Mariners right hander Bryce Miller has been on a tear lately, posting a near 40% strikeout rate over his last five outings. Tonight, he draws one of the most swing-happy, lowest contact teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels.

The Halos have been one of the worst strikeout teams in the league this season, sitting second-worst in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, while also ranking third-worst in contact rate.

Those numbers have held steady on the road. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six hitters carry at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with three north of 25.4%.

Snagging this prop above +120 feels like a strong price.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SEAM, ABTV

Earned runs prop: Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 earned runs (+115)

Sure, asking any team to go off for four runs in the first five is a lot, but most teams are not the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plus, most teams are not facing a right hander who owns a 10.03 ERA, 7.80 xERA, and 2.40 WHIP over Randy Vasquez's last three starts.

Even going back to his last five outings, the Padres starter has a 7.59 xERA and 2.13 WHIP, while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate.

The Dodgers are scorching-hot at the moment, despite falling to the Athletics last night. Over their last 12 games, they have posted a 131 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .807 OPS, and .167 ISO.

I am already a massive fan of Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy this evening, so why not give me the rest of that lineup?

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLBN

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Pick a negative adjective and you can apply it to the 2026 Kansas City Royals. They’re awful. Terrible. Boring. Gutless. Embarrassing. They fail to do the big things, like scoring runs and preventing the other team from doing the same. They also fail to do the small things, like running the bases without making outs and avoiding crucial defensive errors when it matters most. 

If that sounds too harsh, well, I promise you that it’s just what the statistics and the eye test bear out. At 35-52, the Royals are on pace for just 65 wins. They have the worst record in the American League and the worst run differential in the American League; only the shambling corpse of the Colorado Rockies saves Kansas City from being the worst team with the worst run differential in the entirety of Major League Baseball.

Compounding these problems is the weight of expectations, as the Royals entered the season as contenders. The club itself had its sights set on making the playoffs one year after winning 82 games, two years after winning 86 and squeaking into the postseason. Pundits and fans expected good things, and so did the emotionless computers: PECOTA thought the Royals were an 84-win team, and ZiPS thought that the Royals would run it back as an 82-win team.

Kansas City’s response at each of the low points in the year has been to do nothing. A little over a month ago, I wrote that Royals leadership was asleep at the wheel. Despite a wide variety of potential moves available to them, they had chosen to do nothing–only eventually making the most cursory of changes to the lineup out of necessity. Since that point, the Royals have gone 13-18, further sliding down the slippery slope towards oblivion. 

Except for the Royals, oblivion has not come. There has been no reckoning even as teams in similarly dire straights made changes. Most recently, the New York Mets fired their manager, Carlos Mendoza, after a 34-48 start. On the same day, the Los Angeles Angels fired their general manager, Perry Minasian, after a 34-49 start. They’re not the only ones, of course; others have paid a price for failing to meet expectations this year. 

But not for the Royals. And on the first game of the homestand, we got another look into the reason why: they just don’t hold themselves to the standard that other teams hold themselves to. These few sentences of JJ Picollo’s interview provide some clear insight into that fact (emphasis mine):

“I know what this group is about,” Picollo said. “I know how they work. They’re very curious. They want answers. They want to try to find solutions to the questions we have. I know they’re prepared every day. And that’s all we can ask. At the end of the year, you take a look and say, ‘Is this really moving in the direction we want to go?’

“But right now, just keep having conversations with them, share what we’re seeing as a front office. Let them share concerns they have with us, so together we can be part of the answers with each other.”

A few caveats before digging in: Picollo here is talking about the coaching staff specifically, not the front office or the players. Additionally, there is a grain of salt you have to apply to these interviews: this is a PR play, and Picollo is not going to throw anybody under the bus publicly.

But with that out of the way…yikes!

Sports is simple: it’s entertainment. More winning, more entertainment. Less winning, less entertainment. And at the core is a social contract where if teams try hard to win games, fans will show up. If teams don’t try hard to win games, or if they’re really bad at it, fans stop showing up. Losing, therefore, is a very important part of the feedback loop because it ought to prompt teams to change things so they don’t lose fans.

For whatever reason, though, that part of the feedback loop is gone and is nowhere to be found. Losing just doesn’t stick. It isn’t a strong enough signal. It’s not even a signal that matters–to Picollo, what matters is effort. Are the Royals decision makers trying really hard? Are they curious? Are they prepared? He says it verbatim: “that’s all we can ask.” 

That’s all we can ask? Really? I don’t know about any of you, but I don’t decide what to do with my evenings based on how hard any group of people tries or not. I decide based on how much joy any given activity gives me. Right now, the Royals give me, a person who spends who knows how many hours every year writing and thinking about them, no joy. 

I don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors. But it doesn’t really matter what’s going on behind closed doors. Right now, it’s about the product on the field–which, objectively, sucks. Right now, it’s about what the Royals are doing about it–which, objectively, is nothing. Kansas City is trying to sell togetherness and solidarity when fans want competent baseball. The Royals should be asking more of themselves than trying really hard. They can ask more. They should ask more. The fans certainly are.