The Cubs looked like they were going to have a great 2026 after they started 27-12. They had a 3.5 game lead in the NL Central with that record after defeating the Rangers 7-1 on May 8.

Since then, as you know, the Cubs are 8-22 and trail the first-place Brewers by 7.5 games. I’ll save you the math — that’s an 11-game drop over a 30-game span. Clearly, that isn’t good.

But the Cubs never dropped below .500 during this 30-game swoon, or collapse, or whatever you want to call it. There are still 93 games remaining in the 2026 season. If the Cubs can win 55 of them, that’s 90 wins, which should be enough for at least a wild-card spot. 55 wins in 93 games is a .591 winning percentage, which is a 96-win pace. That’s a pretty good pace, but it should be noted that the 27-12 record posted to start the season is a .692 winning percentage, or a pace for 112 wins.

These Cubs aren’t that good. But can they be .591 good over a 93-game span? I think they can.

Here are 10 teams that made comebacks from large deficits over fairly long periods of time to make the postseason over the last 25 years. Of these 10, six reached their low point in June, two in late May and two as late as August. Two of these 10 are Cubs teams, and you’re likely very familiar with at least one of the others.

Here’s hoping the 2026 Cubs join this list by the end of the year.

2002 Athletics

After losing to the Mariners June 5, the A’s were 28-30. They went 75-29 the rest of the way to finish at 103-59 and won the AL West by four games. This included their famous 20-game winning streak. The 2002 A’s lost a division series to the Twins.

2005 Astros

After losing to the Orioles June 15, the Astros were 26-38 and 14.5 games out of first place. They went 63-35 the rest of the way and were the NL’s then sole wild card. They wound up getting to the World Series, where they lost to the White Sox.

2007 Cubs

After losing to the Braves June 2, the Cubs were 22-31 and 7.5 games out of first place. That loss was the famous Lou Piniella dirt-kicking game [VIDEO].

In those pre-video review days, Lou came out for a vehement argument with umpire Mark Wegner. He later said he knew Angel Pagan was out, but he wanted to “light a fire” under his team.

It worked. The Cubs went 63-46 the rest of the way and won the NL Central by two games before losing a division series to the Diamondbacks.

This is one of only two Cubs teams in franchise history to be at least nine games under .500 and finish with a winning record (the other: 1968, when they went from 35-45 to finish 84-78).

2009 Twins

The Twins were 56-62 after losing to the Rangers Aug. 17. They went 30-14 the rest of the regular season and won a tiebreaker game for the AL Central title over the Tigers before losing a division series to the Yankees.

2017 Cubs

The “World Series hangover” Cubs were under .500 at the All-Star break at 43-45 after losing to the Pirates July 9, and 5.5 games out of first place. They went 49-25 the rest of the way and won the NL Central by six games. They won a division series over the Nationals before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers.

2019 Nationals

They were 32-38 after losing to the Diamondbacks June 15. They went 61-31 the rest of the way, made the postseason as a wild card, and won the World Series, the only such win in their franchise history.

2021 Braves

They lost to the Red Sox June 16 to drop to 30-35. They went 58-38 the rest of the way, won the NL East by 6.5 games and won the World Series, their first WS win since 1995. Dansby Swanson hit .259/.329/.463 with 17 home runs during those 96 games, playing in 93 of them.

2022 Phillies

They were 21-29 after losing to the Giants May 31. They weent 66-46 the rest of the way, though they backed into postseason after being 80-62, then going 7-13. They made it to World Series, but lost to the Astros.

2024 Tigers

They came to Wrigley Field in late August and lost two of three, looking bad doing it, to drop them to 62-66. They went 24-10 the rest of the way, winning the AL Central. They won a wild card series over the Astros, then lost a division series to the Guardians.

2025 Brewers

They were 25-28 after losing to the Pirates May 24 and were 6.5 games behind the then-division leading Cubs. They went 72-37 the rest of the way, including winning streaks of 11 and 14 games. As you know, they defeated Cubs in the division series before being swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS.

So it can happen. I continue to believe this Cubs team has good players on it and can make a comeback like that. Let’s hope that comeback started Thursday in Denver.

Is Craig Breslow being fired? Better not tell you now.

Is Boston selling? Reply hazy, try again.

Is Chad Tracy going to lose the interim title? Outlook not so good.

But the Texas Rangers are in town for three games andm like Boston, they’re struggling. Unlike Boston, that means staying at .500 rather than going below. The Rangers are sitting in second place in the AL West with a 34-34 record, 2.0 games behind the Mariners but in control of a Wild Card.

As usual it seems, the pitching matchups are in Boston’s favor. But playing at home with little offense outside of Caleb “Home Run” Durbin what can possibly go right?

Jack Leiter opens things up for the Rangers and he’s pitching, well, not great. He’s coming off a 4.2 innings, 5 run loss to the Cleveland Guardians. He gave up 4 runs to the Rockies and Astros a couple weeks before that. He has 76 Ks in 71 innings but also has 31 walks. Sonny Gray won the only game in New York. With 6.1 innings, 3 runs against the Yankees lineup he’s continued to have a great season. The pitching usually gives them a chance to win. Maybe he can convince the bats to show up? My grandfather would say they call him Sonny because he’s bright, so maybe he’s got a trick up his sleeve?

deGrom remains good, if fragile. At the moment he isn’t hurt. He might get hurt during the game. Who can say. He’s struck out 84 in 70.2 innings. The stuff is still there. And Boston loves striking out. He only has two outings longer than 6.0 innings. Maybe they’ll wear him down? Ranger Suarez had a bounceback start against the Yankees that the Sox should have won. But we all remember the bullpen setting the game on fire. That 6-1 loss really hurts. The Sox can’t get out of their own way in these games and it’s that sloppiness that has really killed them.

Old friend Nathan Eovaldi has thrived in Texas but he’s in a rough patch right now, dragging his season down to something the Sox might exploit. In his last three starts he’s allowed 4 in 5.2, 4 in 6.0, and 5 in 7.0. He still strikes out almost a batter per inning. He’s allowed 15 homers in 13 starts, although 4 in one game skews that a tad. Connelly Early, who has been plagued by the home run ball, has given up just 12 long balls this season. Maybe this is a strategy Boston can exploit? Homers in Fenway? Is that…legal? Craig Breslow will make it legal. The Ks have been there for Early, at least 6 in four of his last 5 starts. They’ve lost three of his last five starts 3-1, 4-2, and 3-2. So while the rookie isn’t lights out, he’s keeping them in the game.

Jake Burger leads the Rangers with 11 home runs and no one else has double digits.

Evan Carter has 10 steals and no other Ranger has more than 5.

The Rangers are a bottom five offense in terms of runs scored.

They’re, really, not a great team. But that gets you a .500 record in the AL this year. Boston can win this series. Or rather they can pitch to win it. Can they score enough to keep the weak part of the bullpen in the ‘pen?

As a reminder, Sunday is a night game on Peacock.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, June 12: Jack Leiter (4.69 ERA / 4.46 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.20 ERA / 3.94 FIP)

Saturday, June 13: Jacob deGrom (3.76 ERA / 4.07 FIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (3.18 ERA / 4.45 FIP))

Sunday, June 14: Nathan Eovaldi (4.26 ERA / 4.59 FIP) vs. Connelly Early (3.30 ERA / — FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, June 12: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, June 13: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, June 14: 7:20 PM ET on Peacock

The Astros missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016, but still finished with 87 wins. This year, the bottom may be dropping out, as they are tied for the eighth-worst record in baseball and are headed to their first losing season since 2014. Their dynasty run that included nine playoff appearances, four pennants, and two titles, appears to be coming to an end.

Houston Astros (31-39) vs. Kansas City Royals (28-41) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Astros: 4.50 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 5.04 runs allowed/game (24th)

Royals: 3.90 runs scored/game (29th), 4.62 runs allowed/game (20th)

Despite playing in Minute Maid Park, the Astros have hit better away from home this year, and only five teams in baseball have hit more road homers. Jose Altuve is one hitter who has struggled on the road, hitting .189/.252/.263 away from Houston. Yordan Alvarez leads all qualified hitters in slugging percentage (.636) and wRC+ (189), and is second in on-base percentage (.430) and home runs (22). He is hitting lefties equally as well as righties. Jeremy Peña is hitting .328/.418/.534 with three home runs over his last 17 games.

Isaac Paredes has a 53.8 percent pull rate, seventh-highest in baseball. He’s a lifetime .196/.328/.373 hitter in 14 games at Kauffman Stadium. The Astros have the worst success rate on stolen bases, getting caught 33 percent of the time. Altuve and Paredes rank as poor defenders by Outs Above Average, but much of the rest of the team rates well.

Tatsuya Imai struggled in his first few starts in the big leagues after coming over from Japan, but he allowed just four runs in 17 innings over his last three starts. He has a 3.24 ERA in four road starts. He throws his slider 44.7 percent of the time, helping him induce a 51 percent groundball rate.

The Astros acquired Mike Burrows in the offseason in a trade with the Pirates, but he has struggled. He leads the majors in losses (8), home runs allowed (17), and he has the highest ERA among qualified starters at 5.77. He has given up four or more runs in 7 of his 13 starts. Lefties are hitting .321/.397/.575 against him. Noah Cameron has allowed just six earned runs in 30 innings over his last five starts for 1.80 ERA, but the Royals have won only one of those games.

Spencer Arrighetti is tied for third in the American League with seven wins, with five Quality Starts. Opponents are hitting just .185/.322/.260 against him. He throws his curveball one-third of the time, and the pitch has a 42 percent whiff rate. Stephen Kolek has allowed just seven earned runs in 32.1 innings over his last five starts.

The Astros have a 4.82 ERA from their bullpen, seventh-worst in baseball, with the third-highest walk rate. And yet, they have the fewest blown saves in baseball with just three. Josh Hader missed the first two months with shoulder and bicep injuries, but earned a save in his first game back. He has struck out 7 of the 13 batters he has faced so far, without allowing a hit. Bryan King, Bryan Abreu, and Enyel de los Santos had each earned saves prior to Hader’s return. Abreu has the highest walk rate among relievers. Steven Okert has a 60 percent flyball rate, third-highest in baseball.

The Astros had an awful month of April, but have played .500 ball since then. They split their season series with the Royals last year, with Kansas City winning the series at Kauffman. This is the fifth consecutive series for the Royals against a team that currently has a .500 record or worse. They’ve gone 6-7 over that stretch so far, and will need to do much better if they any hopes for climbing back into contention.

This week, our Rangers Reacts Survey asked y’all to give new manager Skip Schumaker a grade for his work as manager so far.

Y’all seem to find him to be, generally, just okay.

Just over half of you gave him a “C” grade, and over 80% of you have him with either a “B” or a “C.” So a fairly unremarkable performance so far from Skip.

As for the national questions, Yordan Alvarez narrowly edged out Shohei Ohtani for the title of “best hitter in baseball”:

Asked about the looming labor negotiations, over half of respondents are following, and a large majority are worried about a work stoppage.

This has been brought to you by FanDuel.

The day after Hurston Waldrep made his first rehab stint, we now have news that Waldrep will have a partner joining him on his rehab journey. They won’t be in the same level but it’s still truly a sight for sore eyes to see this particular guy getting back into action.

The Gwinnett Stripers have announced that catcher Drake Baldwin will be doing a rehab stint at the Triple-A level. He’ll be back in action starting on Saturday as the Stripers take on the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp this weekend.

Here’s more from the Stripers on the press release:

The Gwinnett Stripers, in conjunction with the Atlanta Braves, have announced that catcher Drake Baldwin will join the Stripers on an injury rehab assignment on Saturday, June 13. Baldwin, on the Braves’ 10-day Injured List since May 19 (strained right oblique muscle), is scheduled to play in Gwinnett’s 6:35 p.m. game against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp at VyStar Ballpark.

The 25-year-old Baldwin played in 48 games with the Braves prior to the injury, batting .303 (57-for-188) with six doubles, 13 home runs, 38 RBIs, and a .932 OPS. Including his 2025 National League Rookie of the Year campaign, he is hitting .283 (168-for-593) with 24 doubles, two triples, 32 homers, 118 RBIs, and an .848 OPS across 172 career games with Atlanta.

Baldwin’s rehab assignment marks his return to Gwinnett. The Madison, Wisconsin native played for the Stripers from 2023-24, batting .300 (86-for-287) with 13 doubles, one triple, 13 homers, 57 RBIs, and an .893 OPS in 75 games.

While the Braves (and Walt Weiss in particular) were initially hopeful that Baldwin could just eschew the rehab stint and jump right back into action at the big league level, it appears that the Braves have decided that it would be better for everybody involved if Baldwin did indeed take that rehab stint. The target arrival for Baldwin was initially this next week’s homestand so we’ll see if this’ll be a quick rehab stint or if they’ll let him cook a bit longer with the Stripers before bringing him back into action with the Braves.

Either way, the Braves can now start thinking about having their star catcher back at some point in the near future. With all due respect to both Sandy León and Austin Wynns (along with Chadwick Tromp’s contributions while he was here), Baldwin’s bat is sorely missed in the catcher’s spot of the lineup and he’ll also provide a very valuable DH bat as well. Hopefully this rehab stint goes smoothly and we see Baldwin back in the Atlanta lineup sooner rather than later.

The Cubs have lost 2 out of 3 in their last 4 series, including last weekend in Chicago against the San Francisco Giants. By the way, the extra innings game on Sunday Night Baseball wound up being the fourth-largest primetime audience of the MLB season. The Giants didn’t look like one of the worst teams in the sport and the Cubs, despite losing, still had the veneer of a good team despite being 8-22 in their last 30 games.

They managed to win their finale in Colorado yesterday, and it looks like this turn through the rotation will feature everything they’ve got from the starting pitching front. Javier Assad reliever Jameson Taillon in that thrilling Sunday Nighter and pitched 6.1 shutout innings, allowing only a hit and a walk to go with 5 strikeouts. Ben Brown is their best starter and shutout the Giants for 5.1 innings in the Cubs’ Saturday win, allowing only a hit and a walk to go with 5 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Colin Rea has thrown the second-most innings on Chicago’s staff (69.1 IP). He has yet to have a start where he hasn’t allowed a run, though, on three separate occasions he’s allowed only 1 run.

When we last saw the Giants at home, one of the coolest things that you will ever see in a baseball game happened. If you don’t know what I’m talking about for some reason…

All I can say is that I was listening to this game on radio until the 9th inning comeback started and I decided to switch over to watch Eldridge’s at bat. I’m not kidding, I turned the game on as he stepped in to the box. As great as Krukow and Kuiper’s hogs out banter was before the final pitch, let history never forget Jon Miller’s call.

The Giants are also throwing their best part of the rotation at the Cubs too, though, as Logan Webb has looked great since returning from the IL and Landen Roupp and Trevor McDonald at home is a good matchup.

The Cubs need this series very badly. The Giants are playing for vibes. Even with baseball, you’d like to think that the more relaxed team has the advantage.

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Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (28-41) vs. Chicago Cubs (35-34)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 7:05pm PT, 12:10pm PT
National broadcasts: ABC/ESPN (Sunday)

Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-6, 4.00 ERA) vs. Javier Assad (RHP 3-1, 4.73 ERA)
Saturday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-3, 4.15 ERA) vs. Ben Brown (RHP 2-2, 1.74 ERA)
Sunday: Logan Webb (RHP 3-4, 3.88 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (RHP 5-4, 5.19 ERA)

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Players to watch

Cubs

Just 4 Cubs have been better than league average since May 1st: Michael Busch (166 wRC+), Pete Crow-Armstrong (145), Ian Happ (136), literally Michael Conforto (114), so let’s focus on the recent underperformers:

Nico Hoerner: The Oakland native and Stanford alum has done well when he’s returned to the Bay Area. He’s a career .275/.351/.392 at Oracle Park in 14 games (57 PA), but over his last 37 games (162 PA), he’s hitting just .208/.290/.257 (60 wRC+).

Alex Bregman: He was practically nonexistent against the Giants (0-for-12) and is hitting just .236/.317/.338 since May 1st (167 PA). Over the last two weeks, it’s just .178/.296/.333.

Seiya Suzuki: Since May 1st, his line has been a substandard .207/.280/.348 (74 wRC+), but over the past two weeks, he’s picked up his production, slashing .279/.326/.512 (134 wRC+), hitting well enough that he became the subject of a Ken Rosenthal thinkpiece about the Cubs possibly moving him for some badly needed pitching. He did well against the Giants (3-for-9 with a homer) and is on an 8-game hitting streak.

Giants

Bryce Eldridge: Of course.

Trevor McDonald: He was the starter of that Sunday night thriller and he’s bounced back nicely from that 7-run disaster against the White Sox (not entirely his fault anyway), but this entire series is a test to see just how much familiarity persists between these two teams with so few games between the rematch.

Ryan Walker: He has been recalled from Sacramento and taking Carson Seymour’s spot. Seymour wound up being batting practice for the Cubs and Nats in his two appearances this season, but Walker has been that to a large degree, too. We’ll see if his scoreless wizardry in the minors comes back up to the big leagues with him. The Giants could certainly use some outs from the bullpen.

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Prediction time

The Cubs are 1-6 at Oracle Park over the past two seasons, so, I’ll predict that the Giants won’t get swept?

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It’s a busy night of the diamond, and I’ve got three MLB same-game parlay predictions to cover you for all the action Friday, June 12.

My top MLB picks begin with an AL Central showdown between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians and wrap up with an SGP for the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins.

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Tigers vs Guardians SGP: Detroit motors to another win

The Detroit Tigers are turning the corner with a fifth-ranked xwOBA and 6.9 runs per game during their active 7-2 stretch, while the Cleveland Guardians rank 29th in xwOBA while averaging 3.5 runs per game during their own 3-8 skid.

Additionally, Detroit starter Jack Flaherty has fanned six or more batters in four consecutive starts with a sterling 2.37 xFIP, and outfielder Riley Greene has been a force against righties over the past three years with a high-end .374 wOBA and .237 ISO while hitting in the heart of the lineup.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CLEG, DSN

Phillies vs Brewers SGP: Misiorowski builds on Cy Young bid

Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski paces the majors in both ERA and xFIP, so with the Brew Crew also ranking third in wOBA across the past 30 days, I’m anticipating them pulling away from the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. 

Still, I’m expecting Philly rookie Andrew Painter to pitch deep enough to record four or more strikeouts. His 4.68 xFIP is way below his 6.21 ERA, and Painter has limited opposing hitters to a below-average 34.9% hard-hit rate.

Finally, Brewers second baseman Brice Turang is ripe to snap out of a 0-for-9 slump, considering he sports a .304 batting average and .419 wOBA against righties this season.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BREW, NBCSP

Cardinals vs Twins SGP: Minny lambastes Leahy

St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy (4.42 ERA and 4.34 xFIP) has surrendered the highest blast-contact rate among pitchers with at least 50 innings, so I’m anticipating a short outing paving the way for four or fewer strikeouts from the righty.

Left-handed bats have teed off on Leahy to the tune of a .421 wOBA and .962 OPS, and Minnesota Twins infielder Tristan Gray has been sneakily productive down the lineup with four runs, 11 hits and 12 RBI across his past 13 games.

Of course, the Twins have a sizable edge on the mound with Joe Ryan sporting a solid 3.02 ERA and 3.60 xFIP.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, CARD

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

At times this year, never for more than three days at a time, the Orioles can almost convince you that maybe they will be able to be a good team, or at least a good enough team. If there are a few good games in a row from the starting pitchers at the same time the offense does positive things, when they’re doing that, it doesn’t feel foolish to believe. The only problem is that they can’t do it more than three games in a row. Or at least they haven’t done it yet.

In this week’s survey, I asked Orioles fans whether they think the team can get back above .500 before the All-Star break. At the time I posted the survey, that would have required an 18-12 record before the break. They went 2-1 in the remaining games in the Mariners series since then, so we’re now talking 16-11 between now and July 12’s game. Can they do that? Here’s what you said:

That’s a resounding no. It’s almost even a shocking no, because in my experience these surveys have tended towards the optimistic, perhaps even the foolishly optimistic. With the way the Orioles managed to lose on Monday and Tuesday – the two freshest games in people’s minds as they would have been voting this week – it seems the optimism was temporarily beaten out of them. I don’t blame them. I don’t think this team can get back above .500 before the break either.

They’re probably going to have to fire off at least a five-game winning streak to do it. That’s a tall order with the recent state of the rotation. There aren’t five good pitchers out there. There might not even be two. We’ll see if they can do anything to make us feel a little better in hosting the struggling Padres.

This week’s survey was sponsored by FanDuel.

We asked, you’ve spoken.

This was our initial survey post:

SB Nation Reacts Survey: How Many Games Will Astros Win in June?

June is a huge month for Houston, as they face primarily teams with losing records and need to show they can get back to .500 and legitimately chase a playoff spot.

Here is what you said:

More optimism than pessimism among readers, but not optimistic they can crawl to .500 by month end.

Do you think the Astros can get to .500 by the deadline?

Survey is powered by FanDuel.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Fernando Cruz can certainly frustrate. But far more often of late, Cruz has dazzled with both dominant displays and gritty performances coming out of the bullpen. Perhaps no performance better encapsulates these game-changing abilities than his five-out save in the middle game against the Guardians Tuesday night. He struck out four of the five batters he faced including three in a row in the ninth to lock down the Yankees’ 3-2 victory in Cleveland. As impressive as several of the other Yankees pitchers have been, there was really no competition for this edition of Yankees Sequence of the Week.

We join Cruz with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Chase DeLauter standing on first after drawing a leadoff walk. The Yankees cling to a 3-2 lead courtesy of Spencer Jones’ first big league home run and the go-ahead solo blast from Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the eighth. The bullpen has performed spectacularly to this point in relief of a laboring Gerrit Cole, Paul Blackburn, Tim Hill, Camilo Doval, and Jake Bird have all put up zeroes following Cole’s departure after four. Cruz has already worked his magic in the previous frame, inheriting a pair of base runners from Bird but striking out Travis Bazzana and getting José Ramírez to line out to strand both in place. Angel Martínez steps to the plate as the Guardians’ last hope having already collected a pair of base knocks on the day.

Cruz has been experimenting with varying his first pitch selection in recent weeks, usually looking to establish a called strike one with a four-seamer or slider to set up chase on the splitter for the rest of the AB. However, he has a single-minded approach in this spot, not wanting to mess around with either of his less dependable pitches. He throws perhaps the best splitter in baseball and goes full send with his number one pitch.

It’s pretty obvious that Martínez is sitting dead splitter in this spot, given the way he is able to track this pitch that starts as a ball above the strike zone and ends as a ball below it. His swing is matched perfectly to the movement of the pitch, but he’s just a tad early as he rips it foul to the right.

Despite seeing that Martínez was all over that first pitch splitter, there’s no flinch from Cruz. It’s almost like he’s saying, “Here’s my best against your best, let’s see if you can beat me.” He maintains supreme confidence in his splitter, knowing that if he executes to his spot, there are very few hitters in the league if any that can hit it.

This is frankly an unfair pitch from Cruz. This splitter breaks downward ten more inches than the previous one. You can see the look of bewilderment on Martínez’s face as he just nicks the top of the ball for a foul tip into J.C. Escarra’s glove. He swung exactly where he thought this pitch would end up based on the movement of the prior splitter, only for this one to dive downwards way more than he was expecting.

Now that Cruz has shown he can throw the splitter in the zone and still get a swinging strike, he has Martínez in big trouble with the count 0-2. If he can execute another splitter just a little lower than the one he just threw, the hitter should have no shot at making contact.

Decent execution from Cruz, even better take from Martínez. This splitter leaves Cruz’s hand looking like an elevated, centrally-located strike before plummeting down and away almost into the dirt — just insane movement on the pitch and kudos to the hitter for not chasing.

That ball doesn’t change anything in this AB. Cruz still has the count leverage overwhelmingly in his favor and knows he can enforce his will upon Martínez with one more well executed splitter.

Swing and a miss, good night. Cruz caps of this untouchable sequence with his best splitter yet. The pitch travels about halfway to home looking like a meatball strike on the inner half. Just after the ball passes through the hitter’s swing decision point, it drops off the table falling over three feet before it reaches Escarra. Martínez has already started his swing before the pitch’s movement kicks in, meaning it is actually impossible for him to make contact.

Here’s the full sequence:

I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Cruz is the Yankees’ most trusted reliever at the moment. He has by far the best swing and miss stuff of their entire relief stable. With David Bednar’s recent upturn in form, the Yankees once again have a formidable duo for the final two (or more) innings of a winning ballgame. For anyone who may have missed the game on Tuesday or didn’t get to see all five outs that Cruz recorded, I leave this for your viewing pleasure:

After a strong start to their series in Baltimore, the Mariners had to settle for a split series after two lackluster efforts on Wednesday and Thursday. That eight-game win streak a week ago is doing a lot of heavy lifting for Seattle’s overall place in the standings. It feels like the team has slipped back into the listless play that defined a lot of the first two months of the season. Maybe it’s just the fatigue of a long East Coast road trip. Whatever it is, they’ll wrap up the trip with a three-game set in Washington DC.

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Nationals Starter	Mariners Win%	Nationals Win%
Game 1	Friday, June 12 | 3:45 pm	RHP Bryce Miller	RHP Zack Littell	59.1%	40.9%
Game 2	Saturday, June 13 | 1:05 pm	RHP Luis Castillo	RHP Cade Cavalli	50.9%	49.1%
Game 3	Sunday, June 14 | 10:35 am	RHP Emerson Hancock	RHP Miles Mikolas	58.5%	41.5%

Overview	Mariners	Nationals	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	107 (2nd in AL)	107 (3rd in NL)	Mariners
Fielding (FRV)	-16 (14th)	1 (8th)	Nationals
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	90 (3rd)	114 (11th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	92 (6th)	119 (14th)	Mariners

The Nationals have been one of the feel good stories in the National League to start this year. Stuck in a long rebuilding cycle since winning the World Series back in 2019, this is the first time they’ve shown a little progress towards actually breaking out of their doldrums. This big step forward comes after they hired Paul Toboni to take over as their new president of baseball operations last fall, becoming the youngest top executive in baseball. While there’s still plenty of work to do on the roster, especially on the pitching side of things, the lineup has been one of the most potent in baseball this year.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
James Wood	DH	L	322	29.8%	17.4%	0.263	160
Luis García Jr.	1B	L	217	15.2%	3.7%	0.202	107
Curtis Mead	3B	R	192	17.2%	12.5%	0.242	134
CJ Abrams	SS	L	288	20.1%	10.1%	0.239	150
Dylan Crews	RF	R	76	19.7%	2.6%	0.099	45
Daylen Lile	LF	L	300	17.3%	7.7%	0.159	107
Keibert Ruiz	C	S	142	13.4%	2.8%	0.215	113
Nasim Nuñez	2B	S	222	22.1%	9.9%	0.026	51
Jacob Young	CF	R	228	18.4%	4.8%	0.160	90

The Nationals have scored the second most runs in baseball thanks to a handful of breakouts from their young stars in the making. James Wood is looking like he’s ascended to a true superstar level this year; he’s absolutely crushing the ball and has mostly gotten his high whiff rate under control too. He’s already accumulated 3.0 fWAR, just shy of his total from last year, and has slugged 18 home runs. CJ Abrams has also taken a star turn, pushing his wRC+ up to 150 behind a huge increase in power output and patience at the plate.

It’s not just their two stars who have ascended, they’re seeing big steps forward from a bunch of their role players too. Curtis Mead, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García Jr., and Jacob Young have all enjoyed varying levels of newfound success this year. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Littell	64.1	14.0%	7.2%	14.6%	35.5%	4.76	5.95
Bryce Miller	27	29.3%	5.1%	7.4%	41.3%	1.33	2.47

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	25.1%	35.4%	91.6	80	57	102	0.397
Sinker	24.8%	9.6%	91.1	82	35	69	0.501
Splitter	15.0%	25.9%	83.9	91	51	125	0.300
Slider	35.1%	29.1%	87.9	81	68	90	0.372
Sweeper	17.4%	5.7%	79.3	81

Zack Littell has carved out a nice little career as a back-end starter after spending the first five years of his career as an up-and-down long reliever. It took a trade to the Rays to unlock his potential and he accumulated 4.4 fWAR across parts of three seasons in Tampa Bay. He signed with the Nationals this offseason and got off to a really poor start with his new ballclub. Through his first six starts of the season, he was running a 7.85 ERA and a 9.03 FIP. As soon as the calendar flipped to May, he turned things around, lowering his ERA to 2.27 and his FIP to 3.47 over his last seven appearances (four starts and three bulk relief appearances). He lives on the margins with a deep repertoire of modest pitches that he can usually command to any part of the strike zone.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Cade Cavalli	69.2	24.3%	8.0%	7.0%	46.3%	3.88	3.36
Luis Castillo	61	22.5%	8.5%	10.7%	36.9%	5.16	4.18

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	39.9%	38.7%	96.5	97	84	67	0.376
Sinker	32.4%	7.4%	96.0	100	79	118	0.346
Changeup	2.4%	15.4%	88.9	90	57	79	0.277
Curveball	25.3%	38.6%	85.3	107	132	118	0.270
Sweeper	25.3%	5.3%	85.5	117	77	123	0.322

It’s been a long and winding road for Cade Cavalli over the last few years. A former first-round draft pick back in 2020, he quickly made a name for himself as a top prospect the next year and made his big league debut in August 2022. He made one start in the majors and then was shut down with a shoulder injury. He injured his elbow the next spring and missed all of ‘23 and most of ‘24. With all that missed development time, it’s no surprise he struggled after rehabbing from his injury. He’s been excellent this year, showing off all the skills that earned him such a high prospect rating all those years ago. His best pitch is a hard curveball and he’s added a variation on that breaking ball that has a bit more horizontal break which Statcast labels a sweeper.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Miles Mikolas	61	14.5%	6.1%	17.7%	45.4%	5.90	5.63
Emerson Hancock	75.2	25.0%	5.8%	12.2%	41.4%	2.74	3.72

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	25.4%	29.1%	93.3	84	90	70	0.366
Sinker	36.4%	19.3%	92.7	88	78	109	0.350
Changeup	1.6%	14.3%	85.8	83
Curveball	11.0%	16.5%	76.5	100	57	124	0.349
Slider	25.7%	20.8%	87.5	94	66	118	0.289
Sweeper	14.7%	1.3%	81.7	94

After years of soaking up innings in the Cardinals rotation, the Nationals signed Miles Mikolas to do the same for their young roster. As you’d expect from a wily veteran, he’s got a deep repertoire of six different pitches that he mixes well to keep batters off balance. His usually excellent command has waned a bit as he’s grown older — his 6.1% walk rate this year is higher than it’s been since 2014 (!). There really isn’t much more to his approach. He doesn’t strike out very many batters, his batted ball profile is pretty average, and his stuff isn’t getting any better with age.

---

The Big Picture:

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Mariners	36-34	0.514	—	+26	L-W-W-L-L
Rangers	34-34	0.500	1.0	+16	L-W-L-W-W
Athletics	33-35	0.485	2.0	-41	L-W-L-W-W
Astros	31-39	0.443	5.0	-38	W-L-W-L-L
Angels	27-42	0.391	8.5	-42	L-W-L-W-W

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Yankees	41-26	0.612	+7.5	+103	L-W-W-W-W
Guardians	37-33	0.529	+2.0	-6	W-L-L-L-L
Rangers	34-34	0.500	—	+16	L-W-L-W-W
Athletics	33-35	0.485	1.0	-41	L-W-L-W-W
Blue Jays	33-36	0.478	1.5	-18	W-W-L-W-L
Orioles	33-37	0.471	2.0	-30	L-L-L-W-W

The Rangers won their series against the Royals this week, climbing back to .500 and inching closer to the Mariners in the AL West standings; they’ll travel to Boston this weekend. Playing in the Las Vegas heat/altitude/Triple-A band box, the Athletics played three wild games against the Brewers this week. They’ll continue that Vegas homestand with a three-game set against the Rockies. The Astros wound up losing their series against the Angels, squeaking by with an extra-innings win on Monday but losing the deciding game on Wednesday in extras again. They’ll take the place of the Rangers and play the Royals in Kansas City this weekend.

Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski first caught the attention of Phillies fans when he was named to the 2025 National League All-Star team. The selection was somewhat curious because Miz (Sorry for the nickname usage, but I’m not typing out Misiorowski every time) was a rookie with only five career starts. And it was annoying for Phillies fans since they had two veteran pitchers in Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez who merited inclusion over the rookie.

"I love the kid, but he's made five starts."@AJPierzynski12 sides with what Phillies players had to say when asked about Jacob Misiorowski making the All-Star Team. pic.twitter.com/1PltYf99h4

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) July 14, 2025

In 2026, when Miz makes the team, it will be deserved. He consistently throws pitches above 100 MPH and hitters aren’t having an easy time of it.

Jacob Misiorowski is 6-0 with 65 K in his last seven starts, including a 103.7 MPH fastball last Saturday 🤯

"How do you catch up to it? Hope it's a ball." #MLBCentralpic.twitter.com/s1UikKmLCW

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 10, 2026

The best competition in baseball this season might be between Sanchez and Miz to see which of them starts the All-Star Game. Miz fans will point to his higher strikeout rate and minimally lower ERA. Sanchez fans will (correctly) counter that he has a higher WAR due to throwing more innings (Miz has never pitched in the eighth inning of a major league game), walking fewer batters, and having a worse defense behind him.

There’s no shame in being the league’s second-best pitcher, so Miz should be proud to get the ball after Sanchez gets the start. It’s not like this is a tough decision for NL manager Dave Roberts. With the game in Philadelphia, does he really want to choose someone besides Sanchez and have the starting pitcher get booed by the crowd?

The Phillies can help their ace’s chances on Friday night when Miz is scheduled to start. The Phillies haven’t done all that well against flamethrowing phenoms in recent years, but they had some success when they saw Miz last season, scoring three runs in 4.1 innings.

Bryce Harper was certainly not impressed by the velocity.

Bryce Harper takes Misiorowski dead center.

One of those few instances where the pitch velocity is faster than the exit velocity.

4S Velo: 101.1 MPH
Exit Velo: 100.7 MPHpic.twitter.com/bFelVpeegL

— Joseph Cammisa (@jmcammisa) September 1, 2025

Hating on the Brewers

It’s hard to say that any one MLB franchise is the most irrelevant, but the Brewers are probably on the short list. Back in 1998, when MLB needed a team to switch from the American League to the National League, they went with the Brewers, figuring nobody in the AL would miss them. (And as far as I can tell, they haven’t.)

Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Milwaukee originally got their franchise by stealing one from Seattle, but unlike the Thunder, the Brewers haven’t rewarded their new home fans with a championship.

The Seattle Pilots, 1969. They were an expansion team that played only one season before relocating to become the Milwaukee Brewers in 1970. The franchise was founded due to a rapid expansion spurred by the loss of the Kansas City Athletics. pic.twitter.com/A7aYV8thFs

— Baseball In Pics (@baseballinpix) March 6, 2026

They’ve only made it to the World Series once, and the majority of people reading this probably weren’t even alive for that.

“The World Series” (Sports Illustrated – October 25, 1982) Great action shot of Milwaukee #Brewers shortstop Robin Yount leaping over a sliding #STLCards Lonnie Smith! #MLB#Baseball#History#WorldSeriespic.twitter.com/MEcqaVuHkU

— Baseball by BSmile (@BSmile) October 26, 2025

Franchise great Paul Molitor did win a World Series MVP award, but that’s probably not especially comforting for Brewers fans since he did it as a member of the Blue Jays. (Boo!)

As for this year’s team, they’ve established a 3.5 game lead in the NL Central, which means they’re likely headed back to the playoffs. And they’re just as likely to once again lose once they get there. At least the Phillies gave the Dodgers a good fight in the NLDS. The Brewers pretty much rolled over in the NLCS, scoring a total of four runs in the sweep.

The Brewers are somewhat annoying in that they seem to lose a key player or two every offseason and still come back and make the playoffs. They traded Freddy Peralta to the Mets in the offseason, and while Peralta has been a bit disappointing in New York (LOLMets), the Brewers’ pitching staff hasn’t missed him much.

Also, the Brewers retired the number for Bud Selig, which ew, no. When you do something like that, your franchise doesn’t deserve to ever win a World Series.

The #Brewers have announced that they will retire number 1 in honor of Bud Selig during the 2015 season. pic.twitter.com/6YlzcclwY6

— MLB Jersey Numbers (@NumbersMLB) September 26, 2014

Trivia

Last week’s question: In the first ever game between the Phillies and White Sox, future Phillie Kenny Lofton delivered a game-winning hit. Chappdaddy got it right.

This week’s question: The Phillies’ first game at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (nee Miller Park) was a 10-4 win on August 14, 2001. Which Phillie had three hits in that game?

Additional thought about the series

The Phillies have been doing well in the series when both Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler make starts, while the others haven’t gone as well. Sanchez will start on Sunday, but they’ll need to hope that Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola can deliver quality starts the other two days.

Nola has good career numbers against the Brewers, but most of the success against them has come at home. He has a 4.60 ERA in Milwaukee. Some of that was skewed by last year’s start in which he was knocked around for five runs in the first inning, but sadly, there’s nothing about Nola’s performance this season to think that we won’t see a repeat of that.