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Wins Above Replacement is a statistic that aims to give proper value to every part of what a baseball player does, be it defensively, at the plate, and on the basepaths. It even gives extra credit for players who are playing demanding positions. Bobby Witt Jr., meanwhile, is a shortstop who runs the bases like his hair is on fire, is a great hitter, and also just happens to be one of the best defensive players in the entire league.

As you might expect, Witt has accumulated a lot of WAR in his five seasons in the big leagues. Per Fangraphs’ version of the stat, Witt has 33.2 WAR. That total ranks fourth overall since 2021, with Witt only behind future Hall of Famers Shohei Ohtani (51.2 WAR), 15.7 Aaron Judge (44.6), and Juan Soto (33.3). That total is also, obviously, first among all Royals players during that time.

In fact, even though he’s only played five years, Witt has been the most valuable Royal if you move the bar further in the past. Since 2016, he ranks first, with second place being Whit Merrifield’s 17.3 WAR. Since 2006, Witt still ranks first, eclipsing the entire Royals careers of Alex Gordon (31.5 WAR) and Lorenzo Cain (20.9). Witt’s five years in Kansas City have also been more productive than the entire Royals careers of Zack Greinke (26.8), Carlos Beltran (24.9), Mike Sweeney (20.2), David DeJesus (19.7), Danny Duffy (16.3), and more.

You have to go all the way back to 1983 to find a player who has accumulated more WAR in that time than Witt’s five seasons with the franchise. That player, predictably, is George Brett, who accumulated 33.9 WAR from 1983 until he retired in 1993.

Why am I saying this? I’m saying this because I recognize that Witt is great. Everybody does. And yet, when I look at his 2026 and, heck, his 2025 campaign, I’m…disappointed, somehow.

This year, especially, it seems that Witt has not been himself. Witt hit a minimum of six triples a year every single one of his first four seasons; this year, he has one. Witt has never hit fewer than 20 home runs; this year, he’s at 17, with the lowest isolated slugging percentage of his career. His batting average has dropped significantly in two consecutive seasons.

And yet, when you look at his career averages, he is right on the money:

• 2026: .283/.360/.451, 124 wRC+, 3.02 steals per 10 games, 1.35 home runs per 10 games
• Career: .289/.343/.495, 128 wRC+, 2.47 steals per 10 games, 1.62 home runs per 10 games

This year is a little bit of a different mix; for the first time, Witt is walking over 10% of the time. He’s stealing bases at the second-highest clip of his career. He’s not hitting for much power, but he’s getting on base more, and so his overall offensive production is essentially what he’s done, in aggregate, over his whole career.

I think Witt’s monster 2024 season has warped everyone’s perceptions of what he is and what he can be. He posted a 170 wRC+, and we all thought that he could be an offensive powerhouse moving forward. But two years later, that is looking more and more like an outlier. I’m not going to say it was a fluke, because he earned it.

However, Witt’s 2024 was indeed an outlier. Really, Witt is more Francisco Lindor than Mookie Betts or Mike Trout: a consistently very good hitter and excellent shortstop. What Witt is not is a game-changing offensive force. He simply doesn’t hit for enough power, and I don’t think he will ever adjust his game to hunt for home runs.

Witt could prove us all wrong and put together another monster season. That would be fun. And, again, Witt is an incredible baseball player and Royals fans should thank the stars every time they see him. It’s just that we will walk down the road of disappointment if we’re hoping that he’ll be that game-breaking offensive force again. He is great as he is, and we’ll have to accept that rather than hunger for more.

The Washington Nationals did it! They made history last night and “accomplished” something no MLB team has ever done. Of course, I am referring to the 2026 Nationals setting the all time blown save record when they blew their 38th save late last night. This is a truly embarrassing feat that should stick with everyone involved for years to come.

From ownership to the front office to the coaching staff to the pitchers themselves, they all played a role in setting the worst kind of history. This bullpen has been an embarrassment all season long and now the record books show that. Entering this season, the plan was to build a bullpen on the margins and find enough hidden gems to have a mildly competent group.

As we know, that plan failed absolutely miserably. Teams like the Rays have shown this sort of plan can work. However, this front office is not the Rays front office. They have not shown a real ability to evaluate pitching yet, and it cost them dearly this season.

Don’t get me wrong, this front office has done some good things, especially on the offensive side of things. They have completely revitalized the offense. However, there has been more bad than good on the pitching side of things.

One example I keep going back to is a simple waiver opportunity they could have taken advantage of but did not. Bryan Hudson hit the waiver wire twice this offseason, but the Nats did not pull the trigger on the lefty. It might sound nit-picky to talk about one waiver claim they did not make. However, even at the time, it was something I wanted to happen.

While Paul Toboni was picking up just about anyone with a pulse on the wire, there was one name he did not pick up. On paper, Bryan Hudson would be a perfect fit. This regime has shown a love for low slot lefties with funk and that is exactly who Hudson is. He also had a 1.73 ERA in 62.1 innings in 2024 before a rough 2025.

This offseason he was on waivers twice. Toboni did not pull the trigger either time. For the season, Hudson has a 2.95 ERA in 61 innings in a variety of roles. He has 7 saves and has opened 8 times. This is the exact profile this front office was looking for and they missed their solution hiding in plain sight.

If you are going to build a bullpen the way Toboni wanted to build it, you cannot miss on the Bryan Hudson’s of the world. However, a big reason that Toboni even had to build a bullpen like this is due to ownership. Over the past 5 years or so, ownership has not given this team a shot.

Under Ted Lerner, this team consistently ran top 10 payrolls. Now, it has become a bare bones operation. For this franchise to get back to where it needs to be, the Lerner’s either need to spend money or give the team to someone who will. Hopefully this inglorious record is a wakeup call that spending is needed, particularly in the bullpen.

Adrian Morejon, David Bednar and Raisel Iglesias will be the top 3 relievers on the market this offseason. Given this franchise’s recent track record, I doubt any will be Nationals. However, if this organization wanted to be serious, one of them would be wearing the Curly W.

We just cannot go another season without proven high leverage options at the back of the bullpen. Orlando Ribalta can be part of the solution, but they need bigger guns behind them. This bullpen has been so bad, it has negatively affected development.

Honestly, if you do not laugh about this, you will cry. It has truly become comical to see this team even defend multi-run leads. When they get back home, maybe they could take out the rubber and give it to the Hall Of Fame.

While most of these relievers are obviously not up to the job, it is tough to place too much blame on them. Whenever you see quotes from these guys, they are obviously gutted. They are not trying to blow these saves, they are just not up to the task. Jared Simpson clearly did not have it in his first back to back and it cost this team. Clayton Beeter has not had it for months, yet this is all we have got right now.

Mass changes will need to come this offseason. It would probably be unfair to make Simon Mathews a one and done, but some tweaks need to be made to the staff around him. There just needs to be a different voice after the bullpen has failed this miserably.

This was a fun season, but between the deadline sell off and the bullpen woes, things got ugly in a hurry. It sure feels like the momentum heading into next season is gone. Maybe this team can just flip the switch after an offseason, but they need some help. 

The 2026 Nationals will be known for their high flying offense, but even moreso, their record setting bullpen. They set the all time record for blowing games. That is a stat that should make everyone in the building shiver. Cheers to 38 blown saves!

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The Philadelphia Phillies are home favorites over the Houston Astros ahead of the 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, Sept. 9.

My top Astros vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks are calling for Philadelphia ace Cristopher Sanchez to lead the way to a convincing win in the City of Brotherly Love tonight. 

Who will win Astros vs Phillies today: Phillies -1.5 (41.3%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez has been next to automatic and draws a below-average Houston Astros offense ranking 16th in wOBA against lefties and 30th in xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Sanchez also probably has a splash of statistical correction coming to his unsustainably high .346 BABIP across his past 10 starts, considering he’s held opponents to a minuscule 2.4 barrel percentage.

Of course, the Philly offense is fifth in xwOBA while striking out at the third-lowest clip over the past 30 days, too. It’s a good recipe for success against Houston righty Hunter Brown. He’s sporting a solid but unspectacular 3.90 xERA and 3.99 xFIP with a concerning 12.7% walk rate across his past 11 starts, after all.

I’d recommend the Philly run line to 44.4%.

COVERS INTEL: Philadelphia Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez is the only pitcher in the majors with two pitches ranking Top 10 in whiff percentage and Top 20 in put-away percentage.

Astros vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55.2%)

I’m anticipating a low-scoring game tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Brown’s been solid down the stretch, and Sanchez has pitched at an elite level all season. 

Additionally, both bullpens have shown off in the second half, with Houston ranking ninth in xERA and sixth in xFIP, while Philly respectively checks in 11th and 10th.

Finally, Philadelphia's recent strong offensive numbers also stand beside the Phillies ranking 16th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the campaign. 

This Under is the play up to 58.2%.

Astros vs Phillies home run prediction: Bryce Harper (17.4%)

Phillies star Bryce Harper has hit 23 of his 27 homers against righties, and his .300 ISO against right-handed pitchers is the third-highest mark among qualified hitters.

Plus, Brown has surrendered a healthy 45.7% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters across his past 11 starts, and it’s been 11 games since Harper’s last long fly.

Astros vs Phillies weather

The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, warm game-time temperatures around 84°F dropping into the mid-70s, and a breezy 10-11 mph southwest wind blowing out toward right field at Citizens Bank Park tonight.

Astros vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Astros 41.7% | Phillies 61.5%
• Run line: Astros +1.5 (59.2%) | Phillies -1.5 (44.4%)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (52.5%) | Under 8 (52.5%)

Astros vs Phillies trend

The Phillies have covered the run line in 14 of their last 23 games for +6.45 units and a 25% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies.

How to watch Astros vs Phillies and game info

Astros vs Phillies latest injuries

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The Seattle Mariners are home favorites over the Texas Rangers ahead of the 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch at T-Mobile Park on Wednesday, Sept. 9.

My top Rangers vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks are calling for Texas to pull off a second consecutive road upset over Seattle this afternoon.

Who will win Rangers vs Mariners today: Rangers moneyline (42.6%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

While expectations are high for Seattle Mariners prized prospect Kade Anderson, he lands in a tough matchup against the rolling Texas Rangers on Wednesday.

Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and the Rangers also sit eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game.

Anderson has also underwhelmed at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup, and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike percentage.

With the Mariners ranking last in wOBA against lefties, plus 24th in the overall metric and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I recommend the Texas moneyline up to 43.5%.

COVERS INTEL:The Texas Rangers have a 21st-ranked BABIP over the past two weeks despite ranking second in barrel percentage and fifth in hard-hit rate, so there’s potential statistical correction ahead of their already strong offensive numbers.

Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (54.1%)

The Mariners are also set up to do damage at the dish, even if their highlighted numbers don’t jump off the page. 

Texas lefty Cody Bradford was originally scheduled to pitch the series opener yesterday, but he had his start pushed back, and it’s also been a struggle across his six 2026 starts. 

Bradford sports a 5.48 xERA and 5.16 xFIP while allowing opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of a high-end .380 wOBA and 18.0% blast-contact rate.

I’d recommend this Over 7.5 at 55.6%.

Rangers vs Mariners home run prediction: Justin Foscue (14.3%)

The Rangers are giving Justin Foscue more opportunities to show off his power down the stretch, and he’s hit eight of his 11 homers off lefties for a mammoth .301 ISO.

So, with Foscue also sporting a high-end 1.087 OPS during an active 13-for-37 run at the dish, he’s an excellent target to leave the yard this afternoon.

Rangers vs Mariners weather

The forecast calls for mostly cloudy early skies giving way to pleasant afternoon sunbreaks, peak daytime temperatures reaching 73 F, and a consistent 6 to 7 mph northern breeze blowing at T-Mobile Park this afternoon. 

Rangers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 43.5% | Mariners 60%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (60%) | Mariners -1.5 (43.5%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.5%) | Under 8.5 (52.5%)

Rangers vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have only won 17 of their last 45 games (-16.95 Units / -30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.

How to watch Rangers vs Mariners and game info

Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries

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Happy Wednesday A’s fans,

Last night, the Blue Jays evened this three-game series with a 4-2 victory, setting up this afternoon’s rubber match.

With 15 games remaining in the regular season, the A’s main mission should be to avoid 100 losses while continuing to develop players ahead of what is hopefully a more competitive 2027 season. Lately, the team has done a good job of playing spoiler, which it will have the chance to continue doing in upcoming games against the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros.

The Green and Gold will get one of their best hitters back for the final part of the season. Shea Langeliers will start a rehab assignment tomorrow with Triple-A Las Vegas, lining him up to return during next week’s road trip. Langeliers will only serve as the designated hitter, as the team does not want its star catcher to re-injure himself on defense.

This offseason’s owner-imposed lockout will likely result in a shortened or unusual free-agency and trade market. With MLB’s CBA agreement expiring on December 1, that leaves around a month for free agents to sign contracts and trades to happen before the league shuts down for an uncertain period of time.

Given the unique circumstances, it would behoove the Athletics to hire a new general manager sooner rather than later so that person can get started on assembling a roster that will bring the A’s back to the postseason.

What do you think about Langeliers rushing back to get in some games before the long offseason? Which players are you looking forward to evaluating over these final few contests? Which pitchers should the A’s target this offseason to improve a league-worst pitching staff?

A’s Coverage:

• Blue Jays Win 4-2 to Even Series
• A’s Walk Off Blue Jays 6-5
• Mariners Defeat A’s 2-0 in Road Trip Finale
• “Fast Movers” Might Be Key To Contention
• Bi-Polar Performance Arcs Make Evaluation Difficult
• A’s Escape Texas With A Win, Beat Rangers 9-2
• A’s Designate José Suarez For Assignment
• Q&A: Clarke determined to finish strong with A’s after long IL stint
• White exits with back tightness as A’s injury woes continue
• It’s Been a Bummer Summer in Sacramento
• The A’s valuation rises with sales of 2 MLB clubs as Las Vegas move looms
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Daejon Love case brings back Eric Byrnes’ bizarre story of an A’s bat boy impersonation
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• Breaking down the candidates for MLB’s next expansion teams
• Bracket, tiebreakers and more: Here is the current playoff picture
• Predicting the 2026 Gold Glove Award winners
• MLB players on salary cap, CBA talks, potential lockout, more
• Previewing the top MLB free agents for the 2026-2027 offseason
• Judge is back! Yanks activate captain after 3 months on IL
• 250 for 250: Top 10 individual seasons
• 32-year-old journeyman throws first individual perfect game in Minors since 2017
• Burnes pitches three scoreless innings in return from Tommy John surgery
• Umpire Doug Eddings apologizes to Cardinals pitcher Hansel Rincon after MLB reportedly reprimanded him for telling rookie to straighten crooked cap
• MLB hot seat: Which managers and execs have jobs on the line this month?
• Rookie of the Year races in AL, NL coming to conclusion as favorites pull away
• Cheers, then TWO homers! Rutschman makes memorable Camden return
• New Rays Owner: Stadium Deal Should Lead To Significant Payroll Increase
• Each team’s hottest pitching prospect right now
• Ranking the 10 most impactful Trade Deadline moves, one month later
• Mike Trout on ‘needed’ sale of Angels: It’s a ‘fresh start’
• Angels Notes: Stadium, Trout, Front Office
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Some signs of progress. Hopefully both sides can reach a new CBA agreement before it is too late to have a 2027 season.

Yikes!

Athletics minor-league outfielder Devin Taylor earned praise from Baseball America after his hot start at Triple-A Las Vegas.

Photo day!

On a recent episode of Uncs on Lansdowne, the critical darling seldom featured on the Pod on Lansdowne podcast feed, host and Over The Monster editor Dan Secatore mentioned recently watching Tenet. If you’ve ever watched Tenet and claim to understand the plot, you’re a liar. If you haven’t watched Tenet, it’s a wildly confusing movie where things are moving forward and backwards at the same time, and Robert Pattinson is there, and John David Washington talks about hot sauce. As a movie guy and as a pitching guy, I feel the same way about Tenet as I do about Brayan Bello. I want to like it, but I don’t really understand what’s going on.

I’m a nerd. I like stats. I use my eyes to verify the numbers, but when in doubt, I lean towards what the stats are telling me rather than the intangibles. In the case of Brayan Bello, my head is in a pretzel. Just a few months ago, I posited that his success had little to do with his role, and more with some mechanical and strategic changes he made that coincided with his move to the bullpen. One day later, he allowed eight earned runs over five innings. He was demoted to AAA-Worcester, returned about a month later, and allowed four earned runs over his next 29.1 innings out of the bullpen.

I’m not the type to cross-reference the position of the sun and the moon with Bello’s astrological sign, or try to hack his Apple Watch to see how much he was sleeping the night before his appearances to try to get to the bottom of this. I’m stubborn, so I’m back to looking at the numbers. Here are some high-level numbers from his cold streak in the rotation, and subsequent hot streak in the bullpen.

He cut down the walk rate significantly, and more than doubled his strikeout rate against righties. How exactly he made such an improvement is a more complex question. Let’s start with the simplest explanation for the improvement — he was throwing harder. Across the board, his velocity was up. His sweeper was the smallest gainer at just 0.4 mph, but his sinker was up 1.7 mph, his four-seam 1.0, and his slider 2.4. Throwing harder, all else equal, is a good thing.

That’s not the only difference, though. We’ll start with lefties. Bello entirely cut out his curveball. In March and April, the pitch was in the zone just 35% of the time and returned 44% strikes while accounting for 13% of his arsenal. Any pitch that returns 44% strikes isn’t worth throwing, so cutting it out was low-hanging fruit. The curveball also accounted for 28% of his two-strike pitches against lefties, generating just three strikeouts. He also slashed his cutter usage from 22% down to 10%. The cutter had a huge swinging strike rate, but lefties were often able to get around the pitch, pulling the ball for massive slugging numbers. He replaced those two pitches with more changeups (+15.6%) and four-seam fastballs (+9.3%). The swinging strike rate against the changeup was down, but better locations created more ground balls and weak contact. His four-seam still, and likely never will be a good pitch, but he was able to keep it above the zone as something to change the eye level and away from trouble during his hot streak from the pen.

His sinker was also better. Aside from the higher velocity, his locations were vastly improved.

They’re probably more elevated than he’d like, but his early-season, low and glove-side sinkers weren’t effective. The strike rate in both samples was only about 60%, but keeping the ball away from lefties led to more ground balls and easy outs. A 6% K-BB% is still far from an encouraging mark, but it’s much better than the -2% mark he posted to begin the season. His changed approach against lefties was far from perfect, but it was a step in the right direction.

Against righties was where the major improvements came. Strike throwing was an issue to begin the season (8% walk rate against righties), but it improved out of the bullpen. His sinker strike rate increased nearly 15% thanks to a 15% increase in zone rate. His sweeper also became a big swing-and-miss pitch. The velocity and the usage rate remained roughly the same, but he returned to the majors with two extra inches of horizontal movement. The swinging strike rate jumped almost 8% with better locations low and on the glove side.

Bello also returned to an old game plan by throwing more changeups to righties. In each of his first three seasons, he used his changeup to righties about 15% of the time, getting massive swinging strike rates with it. The hard contact numbers were ugly, however, and he cut out the pitch almost entirely in 2025. The strike rate was low at 56%, but it was a source of whiffs for him.

With better strike-throwing and a legitimate whiff pitch in his sweeper, Bello was able to balloon his strikeout rate and keep righties off the bases, limiting big innings.

Of the changes he made, I think increased velocity might be the most impactful. He failed to locate his sinker on the arm side against righties out of the bullpen, but was still able to survive in the zone and get strikes at a high rate. It’s hard to attribute those velo gains to one thing, but shorter outings from the pen likely allowed him to throw harder. The increased sweeper movement and improved changeup command were important as well, but Bello will often go as far as his strike-throwing can take him.

On Monday, Bello took the ball as a starter for the first time since June 4th, a five-inning, eight-earned-run appearance. He turned in five shutout innings, allowing four hits, two walks, and striking out seven. So the monkey is off his back, and he can go back to pitching from the rotation, right? Right???

I’ll start by saying, yes, it was a good outing. He threw five innings without allowing a run. That’s the job. At the same time, the Bello that showed up on Monday was far from the dominant pitcher we saw in July and August. His sinker was all over the map and went for just 60% strikes. His four-seam caught too much of the plate and was hit hard, while his cutter found the zone just twice in eight offerings. His sweeper was still good, inducing seven whiffs, but his changeup wasn’t fooling anyone and went for just one whiff.

Is it because he was working as a starter? What is the plot of Tenet? The answer to both questions is: I don’t fully know. He struggled in his bullpen outings against the Yankees and Mariners, surrendering eight earned runs over 7.1 innings between the two outings as he had a hard time throwing strikes. If you forced me to answer the questions, I would probably say something about a “Temporal Pincer Movement,” which is a term Christopher Nolan wrote that has stuck in my head because it sounds cool despite me not really getting it. I’d also probably ask you why we consider John David Washington a good actor when he hasn’t really turned in many (any?) good performances besides Black KkKlansman. At that point, I’d expect you to tell me to shut up and focus on the Bello portion of the question, and I’d say he’s probably an okay pitcher, with streaky command, whose location issues were, at least in part, masked by increased velocity out of the bullpen.

Bello is talented. He’s been a dominant pitcher for stretches during his career. He’s also been wildly inconsistent. His arm angle has fluctuated, and he’s gone from using the windup to pitching solely from the stretch and back more than once. For the 2026 Red Sox, he’s a perfect inning eater as the team uses cruise control to finish as the second Wild Card. In the postseason, he’ll likely be on a short leash due to his volatility, if he’s on the roster at all. In the future, he’s a prime change-of-scenery candidate who could be a great pitcher with the right coaching.

P.S. Just because I can’t explain Tenet doesn’t mean I didn’t like it. It looks cool, and sometimes that’s all you need. Tune in next week when I explain why Dan’s wife was correct in saying that Richard Linklater’s “Before” series is pretentious and sucks.

Good morning friends!

The Mariners’ bats couldn’t keep up last night in a 10-5 loss to the Rangers, though Lazaro Montes dazzled with his light-tower power. Kade Anderson takes the hill today in the middle match with first pitch set for 1:10pm PT.

In Mariners news…

• Former Mariners first baseman Pat Putnam passed away recently at the age of 72.
• One of the Mariners’ recent draft picks spoke about the team’s development plan for him.

• Ace Reese is off to the best start offensively among his draft class.

• This is a pretty awesome group supporting such a great cause!

Around the league…

• Braves right-hander Bryce Elder will miss the next 3-4 weeks after undergoing a knee scope to clear bone fragments.
• George Bowles at Viva El Birdos outlined where it all went wrong for the Cardinals this year.
• Jeff Passan at ESPN ranked the cities most likely to be awarded an expansion franchise after this upcoming CBA is agreed upon — and the #1 on the list may surprise you.
• Ryan Blake tried to look on the bright side for the Pirates following a horrific second half offensively.

Anders’ picks…

• Matt Yoder at Awful Announcing shamed LeBron James and the other celebrities who joined him for his new Polymarket ad.
• Holy hell, this looks incredible.

Playoffs have begun for at least one farm team. How did the kids do?

Lehigh Valley 5, Worcester 4

Otto Kemp.

Jack of all trades, master of none.

It was pretty funny that the Phillies thought they could make something out of Kemp when they haven’t properly developed a hitting prospect in years. Thinking that Kemp was more than deserving of the dreaded “Quad-A player” label was a miscalculation on their part, but at least now he’s where he belongs. Kemp homered last night with the IronPigs as they start to wind things down on their own season. The star of the offense though was Carter Kieboom, who had a one out bases loaded single to score two in the bottom of the tenth to walk off the WooSox, giving the IronPigs the dub. Tanner Banks threw 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief as he continues to make his case to have a role with the Phillies moving forward as a multi innings reliever that can help them deeper into October.

Erie 6, Reading 1

A whole lot of nothing for the Fightin Phils, who begin their final week of the season with a meek showing on offense and a tired pitcher on the mound. Bryan Rincon accounted for the lone run of the game for Reading, homering in the bottom of the third inning, his 24th home run of the season. What a year this young man has had. On the bump, Cody Bowker was roughed up a bit, allowing five runs over five innings. He’s approaching 100 innings on the year and might be hitting a wall a bit, but there is a bright future for him if he can build on this season’s success.

Tampa 2, Clearwater 0

The Threshers began their playoffs with a rehab start from Nestor Cortes where he allowed a run in a long inning of work, Brad Pacheco allowing only one run in his bulk inning role, throwing 5 2/3 innings where he walked four and struck out five…..and a whole lot of nothing at the plate. Maybe the Tampa Tarpons just want it more. Three total hits was all they could gather for themselves, not giving themselves a chance to take the first game of the three game series. Game two is Thursday.

The Yankees got their Captain back on Tuesday, and while Aaron Judge didn’t collect a hit in the contest the good mood around the team was surely felt. Cam Schlittler stepped up and continued adding to his Cy Young case by tossing seven innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts, and even though Tim Hill had some misadventures in the ninth they weren’t enough to override the baffling defensive play of the Rockies that gifted the Yankees their lead.

With the win in hand, let’s see what happened around the Junior Circuit as the Yankees continue to chase Tampa Bay for first place in the division while holding off the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot.

Tampa Bay Rays (86-58) 7, Atlanta Braves (85-60) 1

While the Yankees were dealing with the lowly Rockies, the Rays had the task of taking on the first-place Atlanta Braves in Atlanta. Unfortunately, after the first inning everything skewed Tampa’s way.

Junior Caminero got the scoring started early with a solo shot in the first inning, but Atlanta countered with a rally in the bottom half fueled by singles from Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin to tie the game right away. That was the only mark against Freddy Peralta’s line, as he went six innings and allowed just a pair of hits the rest of the way — he only struck out two batters, but he was efficient in collecting easy fly ball outs.

Meanwhile, the Rays weren’t satisfied with just one run. They struck for three runs in the third inning, Liam Hicks providing the big blow with a two-run shot before Victor Mesa Jr. singled in Michael Harris II, and after a throwing error gifted them a runner on third to start the fifth inning Yandy Díaz hit a ground ball in the right spot to bring the run in. Díaz flexed his muscles in the eighth inning, lifting a solo shot to make it 6-1 Tampa, and Richie Palacios tacked on the final run with a homer of his own in the ninth.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (80-66) 1, Los Angeles Angels (55-90) 6: The Angels may be inept, but they can run into wins every now and then — especially against one of their former pitchers. Patrick Sandoval was an Angel for six seasons before missing all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Sox signed him before that season to a two-year deal to build him up for this year, and while he’s been mostly OK he’s had trouble keeping runners off the basepaths and that flared up big-time in this outing.

Los Angeles scattered 10 hits across six innings against Sandoval, a big chunk of the 15 hits they’d collect throughout the night, and managed to score four off of their former pitcher starting with a double play that converted a run in the second inning. Jose Siri and Vaughn Grissom singled in runs in the third to extend the lead to 3-0, and another double play ball that brought in a run made it 4-0 in the fifth — if it weren’t for the traded outs, Sandoval’s day could’ve looked a lot uglier.

Sandoval’s efforts to limit the damage hardly mattered though, because the Sox offense couldn’t solve Reid Detmers. Detmers matched Sandoval with six innings of labor, but he blanked Boston on the scoreboard as he allowed just a single hit and one walk against nine strikeouts. The Sox immediately got something going when Detmers was lifted for José Fermin to start the seventh, Trevor Story leading off with a double before Nick Sogard singled him in, but after Caleb Durbin walked the rally fizzled out and the spark never returned. The Angels added two in the ninth for good measure on a Zach Neto two-run shot, capping off a 4-for-5 day for the shortstop, but the insurance runs weren’t necessary as Boston stranded a leadoff single in the ninth.

Chicago White Sox (75-69) 3, Pittsburgh Pirates (72-73) 9: The Pirates scored all they would need in the very first inning, scoring five of the seven runs they’d get against Sean Burke right out of the gate. Konnor Griffin led off with a double, Brandon Lowe walked, and Bryan Reynolds doubled to start the scoring before Oneil Cruz doubled in both runners. Esmerlyn Valdez kept the double chain going with a ground-rule double that brought in Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz changed things up with a single up the middle to score the fifth run all before Burke could record an out. Horwitz would get up to bat in the second inning with runners on and single in two more to end Burke’s day after just 1.1 innings, and the White Sox never really recovered from there.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Houston Astros (74-71) 6, Philadelphia Phillies (81-64) 5: Don’t look now, but the Astros might be making a run to finally be the AL West team that breaks out of the Rock Fight. They’re a whopping three-games over .500 now after taking a narrow contest over a good Phillies team, fueled by four runs in the second inning as Christian Walker hit a three-run homer. Cam Smith added a solo shot in the fourth to make it 5-0 Houston, but Philadelphia answered back as Trea Turner hit a two-run shot in the sixth to pull within two runs. The Phillies got an RBI double from Edmundo Sosa to close the gap to one run and put the tying run in scoring position in the ninth, but a pair of fly outs and an easy pop up ended the comeback attempt.

Cleveland Guardians (74-72) 9, Baltimore Orioles (70-76) 5: Cleveland is right on Chicago’s trail after Tuesday’s contests, the Guardians winning thanks to an early outburst from their offense. A leadoff double was converted into a 1-0 lead on a Jo Adell RBI single in the first, and the second saw Cleveland plate four after Angel Martínez tripled and scored on a single before Travis Bazzana hit a three-run shot. Petey Halpin singled in one more in the third to make it 6-0, but Baltimore fought back with a run in the fourth before scoring four in the fifth capped off by a Pete Alonso two-run blast to close within a run. A run-scoring error on what would’ve been the second out of the seventh turned into a three-run frame for Cleveland though, putting the game back out of reach.

Toronto Blue Jays (73-73) 4, Athletics (58-88) 2: The Jays collected 11 hits against the A’s, but runs were still at a bit of a premium despite lifting a pair of those hits out of the park. Josh Smith and Kazuma Okamoto hit back-to-back homers in the second to give Toronto an early lead, the A’s cutting into that with a run in the fourth on a Carlos Cortes solo shot. The sixth saw them cash in the remainder of their scoring, Alejandro Kirk singling in one before a double play managed to still bring in another run. Donovan Walton lifted a solo shot in the seventh for the A’s, but the two blasts were all they could convert on.

Texas Rangers (72-73) 10, Seattle Mariners (67-78) 5: In the battle of disappointing teams out West, Texas came out on top thanks to a big five-run fifth inning where Wyatt Langford and Danny Jansen both homered to turn a narrow 4-3 lead into a comfortable 9-3 contest. Cal Quantrill turned in six innings of three-run ball for Texas, and the bullpen was able to limit Seattle to just two more runs over the last three innings to prevent this one from slipping back into the home team’s reach.

Davis Polo was a fringe prospect at best heading into this season, but with a blistering end to the year he has turned into one of the surprise breakouts of the second half. Polo marched into his Double-A debut and didn’t allow a hit until the sixth inning, while striking out 17 hitters on the best lineup in the league. Polo was backed up by another great game for John Gil, who is leading the Columbus lineup with an 11-game hitting streak.

(70-68) Gwinnett Stripers 0, (70-67) Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 1

Box Score

Statcast

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 0-2, BB, .301/.400/.438
• David McCabe, 1B: 0-3, .283/.333/.472
• Lizandro Espinoza, CF: 0-3, .250/.338/.375
• Owen Murphy, SP: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 3.07 ERA

(71-68) Gwinnett Stripers 3, (70-68) Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 1

Box Score

Statcast

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 0-2, 2 BB, .301/.400/.438
• David McCabe, 1B: 1-4, .283/.333/.472
• Lizandro Espinoza, CF: 0-4, .250/.338/.375
• Tyler Uberstine, SP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 3.22 ERA
• Rolddy Munoz, RP: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 3.59 ERA

That was more like the Owen Murphy we’ve gotten used to seeing, even if his velocity is staying low to close out the season. Murphy averaged only 91.5mph on his fastball, which dropped to just over 90 mph in his final inning, but it was more important for him that his command was much better than his past couple of games. He was able to get some swing-and-misses, though he still did leave too many pitches in the middle of the plate. He gave up a few solid fly outs that the park managed to hold, but still overall pitched a fine game as evidenced by the scoreboard. Murphy did well with his breaking balls in limited usage, forcing four whiffs on seven swings between the two pitches, and he didn’t make as many over-the-plate mistakes with his changeup. Murphy was unfortunately not backed up by any offensive confidence as the bullpen for the Jumbo Shrimp ran through the Stripers in game one. Rowdy Tellez had two hits by himself, but no one else recorded a hit in the game and there wasn’t much of a case that Gwinnett deserved better. They had only two hard hit balls in the game (one from Tellez) and Tellez was the only player to advance into scoring position where he was stranded twice. He had some moments where he wasn’t at his best with control, but this game felt much more like a comfortable outing.

Game two was a boatload more fun for Stripers fans. It was deadlocked at one run each after five innings, but the Stripers showed much more life and were knocking on the door of taking a late lead. In the sixth inning they got down to two outs with no one on after a caught stealing, but then a fire took hold of their bats. A walk was followed by DaShawn Keirsey Jr. digging out a slider for a double, and they found themselves with two runners in scoring position and an opportunity to take the lead. Chuckie Robinson smacked one up the middle that slid just past a diving attempt by the second baseman and rolled into center field where two runs scored to give Gwinnett a huge advantage. The scoring stopped there and it was in the hands of the bullpen, but the pitching staff came to play in game two as well. Rolddy Munoz managed to keep the ball around the strike zone, and the Jumbo Shrimp helped him out with some chases to keep him cruising through the lineup. His slider dived them up and allowed him to throw two easy innings and send the game to Danny Young in the bottom of the seventh. Young had an easy go of it, with nothing even leaving the infield, and the Stripers managed a split of the opening double-header.

Swing and Misses

Owen Murphy – 11

Rolddy Munoz – 5

Tyler Uberstine – 2

(63-65) Columbus Clingstones 2, (68-65) Montgomery Biscuits 1

Box Score

• John Gil, 2B: 2-5, 2B, .325/.399/.452
• Eric Hartman, LF: 0-4, BB, .195/.317/.288
• Alex Lodise, SS: 1-3, BB, RBI, .308/.353/.487
• Owen Carey, RF: 0-4, .241/.333/.371
• Dixon Williams, CF: 2-4, 3B, .240/.321/.640
• Davis Polo, SP: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 0.00 ERA

Davis Polo walked into the home of the best second-half offense in the Southern League and he absolutely destroyed them. Polo retired 14 straight hitters to open the game before he lost a batter to a walk in the fifth inning to ruin his streak. He had a run of bad luck in the sixth inning with a leadoff error and a seeing-eye single putting two on with nobody out, but he locked down and forced weak contact from the next three hitters to preserve the shutout. So far, Polo’s trek through the minor league ranks has seen him do nothing but get better at each stop of the journey. His slider being a weapon is no big surprise, but it’s how the rest of his arsenal has rounded out that makes him so dangerous right now. He is in complete command of the bottom of the strike zone with three pitches, and his changeup has gone from solid to arguably his most effective pitch in recent weeks. Polo’s changeup was masterful from the first inning and the lefty bats in this lineup couldn’t find an approach to deal with it, which showed up with his churning out whiffs and ground balls. Polo has opened eyes in the second half of the season and put himself in lofty conversations with the other young arms in this system, and the Braves have no reason not to continue pushing the envelope with him. He is facing Rule 5 eligibility this winter, and that he has solidified himself as a stash candidate and someone who should get significant run at the upper levels next season. He’s still got quite a bit of learning to do in regards to his command and could serve to add some muscle to his frame, but the arrows are streaking upward for Polo as of the end of this season. It’s really just as impressive for him to hold his stuff this well into September given he is coming off of injury and never crossed 60 innings in a season before. To continue making upper level hitters look silly after 110 innings is an accomplishment that can’t be ignored, and one we’re seeing other pitchers in the system struggle to achieve.

John Gil continued his outstanding run with two more hits, including a double. That marks 11 games in a row with a hit for Gil, who is finally starting to see the results catch up to his profile. Gil’s approach and talent has always shown out, but this is the first time we’re seeing an extended run of Gil being as good as he has shown he is capable of being. He still needs to show he isn’t going to suffer through the long slumps he’s been prone to the last couple of season, but this has been a terrific second wind for him to close the season. The rest of the lineup hasn’t managed quite as much excitement for the past two weeks as the strikeout regression for Alex Lodise has set in and Eric Hartman’s good stretch has evaporated into a slump, but it’s not all negative by any means. Owen Carey has been a bit more willing to take walks and work deeper counts, and even if results don’t follow for him that alone is progress headed into next year. Dixon Williams has been solid in his first week and a game with the team as well, and added another big game to his register with two hits. Williams is somewhat keeping the strikeouts at bay, though you’ll have to excuse any skepticism I have that he can maintain that pace over a long period. He hasn’t shown that the hit tool is there yet, but he’s hitting the ball hard and that’s the main draw to Williams’s profile when he is playing well.

Swing and Misses

Davis Polo – 17

Tyler LaPorte – 4

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The Cleveland Guardians are priced as avery slim 51% favorite tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. 

Both starters are in good form right now, but my Guardians vs Orioles predictions target the hosts to pull out a victory at home. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9. 

Who will win Guardians vs Orioles today: Orioles (50%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Shane Baz is throwing the ball well for the Baltimore Orioles, limiting home-run damage lately while posting a 3.88 xERA over his last two starts.

Baz also owns an impressive 3.20 FIP at home, and despite scoring nine runs Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians aren’t exactly flourishing offensively, posting an 83 wRC+ over the last week.

Foster Griffin has held his own, too. His underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than the recent results indicate, but he has still surrendered five earned runs across his previous two outings.

The O’s aren’t swinging it with much authority overall, but they’ve performed respectably against left-handed pitching, producing a 102 wRC+ this season.

I’ll side with Baltimore at home.

Play this pick up to 55%.

COVERS INTEL: Baz is consistently inducing weak contact, allowing just a 26.5% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks. That's a massive improvement from his season average of 41.3%. 

Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (48%)

I’m leaning to the Under. Neither starter is giving up a boatload of runs right now, and the offensive profiles of both lineups do not exactly scream slugfest, either.

Cleveland is well below the league average in wRC+ lately, and Baltimore is in the same boat. The bullpens are also holding things together late in games.

The Guardians’ relief corps owns a stellar 2.79 xERA over its last 47 frames, while the Orioles’ bullpen has a 2.96 xERA over the last seven days.

While Baltimore’s relievers have been slightly home run prone, neither offense is slugging many homers right now.

The starters should keep tonight low-scoring, and the bullpens should keep things controlled as well.

Play this pick up to 53%.

Guardians vs Orioles home run prediction: Coby Mayo (20%)

Coby Mayo is an intriguing value pick tonight. He has gone deep twice in the last week while posting a .389 ISO and .333 average during that span.

The slugger is also consistently getting lift on the baseball, producing a 50% fly-ball rate over his previous six contests.

Griffin doesn’t allow a lot of home runs, but he has been a bit more vulnerable against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering 1.21 HR/9 with a fly-ball rate just under 40%. Cleveland’s bullpen has also allowed 39.3% of its contact in the air over the last week.

With a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate recently, Mayo has enough underlying power support to leave the yard.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Guardians vs Orioles weather

Weather looks clean at Camden Yards tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the mid-80s into the upper 70s. Winds are noticeable around 12 to 14 mph, but rain chances sit at just 1% throughout, so there’s no delay concern and only a modest weather impact.

Guardians vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Guardians 51% | Orioles 50%
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (39%) | Orioles +1.5 (62%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (53%) | Under 8.5 (48%)

Guardians vs Orioles trend

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles.

How to watch Guardians vs Orioles and game info

Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries

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It's NFL opening day, but there's plenty of time to hammer home run and MLB player props this afternoon and build that kickoff bankroll. 

Kazuma Okamoto could pummel Sutter Health Park for a third straight day, but don't count out the Athletics vs. the Jays' bullpen.

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, September 9. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Henry Bolte	11.5%
Kazuma Okamoto	22%
Cody Bellinger	17%
💲Today's HR parlay	173.1x

Home run prediction: Henry Bolte (11.5%)

I'm going long on a leadoff hitter who leads his team in swing speed and home runs while ranking second in HardHit% over the last two weeks. Henry Bolte has great pop for a leadoff guy, and he'll get to see an average Jays middle bullpen that could need six or seven arms today.

He's already 3-for-6 in the series with a homer and three runs scored, while adding four stolen bases. It's almost 100 degrees at Sutter Health Park, which is the best park for runs today, per Ballpark Pal.

I have Zack Gelof as a good look here as well at 5.8x, but getting a similar projection at 8.7x is the move. If you can't get Bolte at 8x, I'd move to Gelof at 5.5x or better. There is a great opportunity for long balls this afternoon in Sacramento.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Kazuma Okamoto (22%)

If it weren't for rookie Kazuma Okamoto's power, the Jays would have hit just 110 home runs, as he's accounted for 21.4% of the club's total. He's already gone deep twice down the left-field line at Sutter Health Park and is looking to dinger-sweep the series.

Okamoto shouldn't be longer than 3x at this park, especially with near-100-degree temperatures and a plus-plus hitting matchup.

Both clubs will be going with bullpen days, and there are some stat-stuffers on the Athletics' side. Both teams can stack runs today, and I think the A's can be competitive. But with the heat and matchup, I'll take the only trusted Toronto bat at three percentage points above my fair price.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (17%)

I want a left-handed bat in the Bronx today, and Cody Bellinger is answering the call at 17%, with a fair probability of 20%.

He might not be in the best form since coming over, but he's at least hitting .290 and seeing the ball well. It's the matchup and setting that are pushing this into +EV territory.

There will be 14-mph winds blowing out to left-center field at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger also gets a matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 60 home runs over the last two seasons, the second-most in baseball behind Shoto Imanaga (64).

Lefties have taken Sugano deep at a higher rate, with a home run coming every 15.7 plate appearances, which is a huge number. The Rockies' bullpen is also very serviceable, adding to the dinger chances in a Mickey Mouse park.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES Network, Rockies.TV

Best home run combo for September 9

Henry Bolte	Trade Now 173.1x
Kazuma Okamoto
Cody Bellinger

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The Atlanta Braves are 54% favorites over the visiting Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga.

However, my Rays vs. Braves prediction and MLB picks fade the home team, with a returning Reynaldo Lopez slated to take the mound after missing more than a month with a knee injury in his plant leg.

Expect Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and the rest of Tampa's pesky lineup to drive a rusty Lopez mad. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Who will win Rays vs Braves today: Rays (47%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Reynaldo Lopez will slot back into the Atlanta Braves rotation today against the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran right-hander hasn't pitched in the majors since July 26 and has spent the last month and change on the injured list with left knee inflammation.

Before his injury, he put together a 4-3 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The latter stat is the concerning number, as it helps explain why his expected ERA is 4.63.

No team strikes out less often than the Rays, who have an 18.4% strikeout rate as a unit. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are the only other teams that go down on strikes less than 20% of the time.

That will be dangerous terrain for Lopez. His fastball is his most-used pitch, and it's down more than a full mile per hour (95.5 to 94.2) from his last healthy season, 2024.

Coming off injury and already showing less impressive stuff before hitting the shelf, Lopez will be in tough shape against a Rays offense that will pester him repeatedly, especially Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, both of whom limit whiffs with the best of them and do damage when challenged.

Tampa is a road underdog, but I'd take the Rays on the moneyline all the way to 53%. 

COVERS INTEL: Lopez wasn't missing many bats before his injury, recording a 14th-percentile chase rate and a 23rd-percentile whiff rate. Even in conditions that don't favor power, Tampa's best contact bats can chip away at the righty.

Rays vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)

Yes, I expect the Rays will get to Lopez, but that doesn't mean this will be a high-scoring affair.

Griffin Jax is a ground-ball pitcher and will benefit from the weather conditions at Truist Park. While it will be humid, the high barometric pressure and wind blowing in from left field will suppress power. Per Ballpark Pal, this game has the worst hitting conditions on the slate.

This will also help Lopez keep it in the yard after getting burned by gopher-ball before his injury.

The Braves surrendered seven runs in last night's loss, but they only used two relievers, so the bullpen is fairly well-stocked.

I'm surprised the O/U isn't listed at 7.5, so I'll happily take the Under 8.5 and would play it to 58%. 

Rays vs Braves home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (16%)

I don't love the hitting conditions and wouldn't go heavy on anyone to clear the fences.

But while Jax trends toward the ground ball, he has been somewhat prone to homers in 2026.

So, I'll take Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. The lefty slugger has hit the bulk of his home runs to right field this season, and with wind moving from left to right, he could get a little boost if he executes. 

Baldwin ranks in the 84th percentile in barrel rate, the 86th in average exit velocity, the 88th in bat speed, and the 93rd in hard-hit rate. This is the kind of profile that can overcome sketchy weather.

Rays vs Braves weather

It will be a fairly humid night in Atlanta, with temperatures ranging between 83 and 90 degrees, but wind blowing in from left field, capping power potential a bit. The high barometric pressure will also make it difficult to elevate pitches.

Rays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Rays 47% | Braves 54%
• Run line: Rays +1.5 (65%) | Braves -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Rays vs Braves trend

The Rays have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves.

How to watch Rays vs Braves and game info

Rays vs Braves latest injuries

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No Mason Miller, no problem for the San Diego Padres.

Adrian Morejon came in for the third time in as many days having thrown 27 pitches over the previous two outings. San Diego’s All-Star closer was unavailable to close out a 5-4 comeback win for the Padres over the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on Tuesday which set the stage for Morejon. The left-hander needed just seven pitches to get through the top of the ninth inning to save a one-run win over the Nationals. Morejon’s performance was just what San Diego needed after a four-run bottom of the eighth inning gave the Padres the lead.

San Diego trailed throughout the game and did not have a hit against Washington, which employed a bullpen game. Luis Campusano hit a line drive single to left field in the bottom of the fifth inning for the first hit of the game for the Padres and he was responsible for what proved to be the game-winner in the bottom of the eighth inning. Campusano hit a broken bat flare into shallow center field that fell between three Washington fielders. That allowed Manny Machado to score to give the Padres their fourth run of the inning and the first lead of the game.

Machado was at the plate earlier in the inning with San Diego trailing 4-2 with one out in the eighth. Freddy Fermin was on third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. was at second after a walk and a passed ball allowed him to get on base and move into scoring position. Machado battled in his at-bat before he was able to chop a changeup back through the middle of the infield into center field. Fermin scored easily and Tatis was able to score standing up to tie the game at 4-4.

The Padres got their first run of the game in the bottom of the seventh inning when Jackson Merrill hit a sacrifice fly ball to right field, with Machado on third base and Ty France at second. The sacrifice by Merrill allowed Machado to tag up and score to get San Diego on the board, 3-1. Yuki Matsui surrendered a run in the top of the eighth, which put the Padres down 4-1 before the eighth inning heroics gave them the lead and eventually the win.

Casey Mize started for San Diego and had a solid outing. He allowed three runs on four hits over 5.2 innings. Mize allowed one walk and struck out seven batters. He left the game with the Padres trailing 1-0 but had runners at first and second after allowing a double and a walk. Randy Vasquez came on to try to get San Diego out of the inning needing just one more out. He allowed a double to Brady House, which allowed both Washington runners to score, giving Mize three earned runs in the game.

San Diego will go for the series sweep today at 1:10 p.m. If the Padres can complete the sweep, they will finish their home stand with a 5-1 record before hitting the road for three games in San Francisco and four games in Colorado.

Padres News:

• Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes Joe Musgrove may have given the Friar Faithful a hint at his future in recent comments.

• Jason Adam is working in the minor league system, attempting to make his return to the Padres.

• The Padres added a veteran reliever on a minor league deal after releasing two other players in the minor league system earlier in the day.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers got a walk-off win over the Chicago Cubs to earn their 90th win of the season.

• Cam Schlittler continued his dominant season and led the New York Yankees to a win.

• Corbin Burnes returned for the Arizona Diamondbacks who got another extra-innings win over the Kansas City Royals.

• The Houston Astros edged out the Philadelphia Phillies in a 6-5 win.

• Kazuma Okamoto hit his 30th home run of the season and the Toronto Blue Jays topped the Athletics.