Despite the smashing success that was the 2025-26 season, the Philadelphia Flyers are not favored to repeat as a playoff team heading into 2026-27.
Popular NHL analytics site MoneyPuck released its first predictions of the 2026-27 season, outlining each NHL team's chance to make the playoffs, reach the Stanley Cup Final, win their division, the number of points they are expected to reach, and more.
For now, the Flyers are starting off in the bottom half of the NHL with their 43.1% chance of making the playoffs, which notably ranks below teams like the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Buffalo Sabres, and Utah Mammoth.
Those odds put the Flyers in the same tier as teams like the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets, who have 42.2% and 41.9% chances of making the playoffs, respectively.
MoneyPuck also projects the Flyers to have a 20.1% chance of reaching the second round of the playoffs, as they did last year; a 9.2% chance of reaching the third round; a 4.3% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final; a 2% chance of winning the Cup, and 6% chance of winning the Metropolitan Division.
As for points, MoneyPuck has the Flyers sitting at 93.4 points, which would be a five-point regression from the 98 they amassed last season.
Should the Flyers be underdogs?
At first glance, it does make some sense that the Flyers are not exactly expected to repeat as a playoff team for the second year in a row.
Goalie Joseph Woll was the Flyers' biggest addition this offseason. (Photo: Kyle Ross, Imagn Images)
Outside of the addition of backup goalie Joseph Woll and the attempt to bring in superstar center Leo Carlsson on an offer sheet, the Flyers bumbled through a mostly nondescript offseason where their only other noteworthy addition was veteran center Noel Acciari, who came over from the slightly more favored Pittsburgh.
Plus, teams that missed the playoffs last season, like Washington and New Jersey, made considerable upgrades in contrast, adding players like Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou, Boone Jenner, Luke Evangelista, Anthony Mantha, and Evan Rodrigues.
The Flyers can look at full seasons of Porter Martone and Tyson Foerster as new additions of their own, while David Jiricek and Simon Benoit should be able to contribute more than Emil Andrae and Noah Juulsen did last year.
Woll, too, is a considerable upgrade on the departed Sam Ersson, who went 14-11-5 with a .870 save percentage in his final season with the Flyers last year.
Comparatively, Pittsburgh's best players aren't getting any younger, and they'll be rocking an unproven tandem in goal with Sergei Murashov and Arturs Silovs.
Columbus has dealt with some major distractions between Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli, and now Kirill Marchenko, and defenseman Dante Fabbro will begin the year on injured reserve.
With a fast start, the Flyers should quickly overtake some of their peers in the eyes of the public.
With a little more than a week to go in the season, they were comfortably in a wild card spot, having gotten there with multiple long winning streaks. Then… they just stopped scoring runs. They went on the road at the end of the season and could barely muster anything crossing the plate. The team’s fans were beside themselves. What would happen to this club that at times seemed so dominant?
Oh, you think I’m talking about this year’s Cubs.
Nope, I’m talking about the 2022 Phillies, who with 12 games to go were 83-67 (psst… so were this year’s Cubs after 150 games). Then those Phillies lost five in a row. That streak included coming into Wrigley Field and being swept by a bad Cubs team and scoring just three runs in that series. I vividly remember talking to a couple of Phillies fans at Wrigley after that series was over and, well, I can’t post the language they used referring to their team.
Those Phillies then righted their ship, a little, winning four of five. Then they got shut out 10-0 by the Astros on the season’s penultimate day (in fact, they nearly got no-hit by Justin Verlander and two Houston relievers, including old friend Hector Neris, finally breaking up that effort in the ninth). They lost the next day, too, backing into the postseason when the Brewers lost.
Those Phillies then traveled to St. Louis for a Wild Card series and were losing 2-0 with one out in the ninth in the first game when seven of their next eight hitters reached base. They scored six runs in that inning and won 6-3.
That was the first of 10 wins in 12 games for Philadelphia, which included winning Game 1 of the World Series in Houston, against that same team that had nearly knocked them out entirely a few weeks earlier.
Ultimately the Astros won the World Series that year. (Incidentally, Alex Bregman batted .294/.379/.569 with three home runs in 12 postseason games for Houston in 2022; his solid postseason performance is one of the reasons the Cubs signed him.)
Now the Cubs are in a similar situation to those Phillies. Not identical, of course, but the clubs are quite similar. The 2022 Phillies were a slugging team near the top of MLB in offensive categories. They had a mediocre pitching staff that ranked 23rd in reliever ERA and had 22 blown saves, and their save leader — Corey Knebel, remember him from his Brewers days? — had just 12, with four of those blown saves.
This pretty much describes the 2026 Cubs, no? In fact, this year’s Cubs rank even higher than the 2022 Phillies in almost every offensive category. They were first this year in runs, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases and walks (a franchise record 674), and rank third in home runs. They also rank first in runners left on base, and I could cite RISP numbers but leaving a lot of runners also means that, well, you have a lot of runners in the first place. That’s what happens when you lead the league in walks and are sixth in hits.
This sort of offense shows in the Cubs’ record in “blowout” games (defined at baseball-reference.com as games won by five or more runs). They are 35-16 in those games, which is excellent. But they’re just 23-21 in one-run games, and that’s on the pitching staff, which has been horrific most of the year. How bad? This bad:
The Cubs pitching staff is one of the worst in MLB (only four teams, then Nationals, Royals, A’s and Rockies had as bad or worse pitching WAR), and if they didn’t lead the league in hitting WAR by a significant margin — 11 WAR over the Dodgers! — they’d be down near the bottom of the list. Instead, they rank third overall, behind only the Dodgers and Brewers.
Injuries are a big part of that. Only Shōta Imanaga, of all the starters, didn’t have a single day on the injured list, making 31 starts and throwing 173.1 innings, producing 2.0 bWAR. Even at that, the Cubs’ leader in bWAR (2.2) was Ben Brown, who threw only 68 innings and didn’t throw a single pitch after June 19. Brown’s injury was one of the major factors in making this pitching staff so awful. This Cubs team had a franchise-record 14 different pitchers record saves this year, including Corbin Martin (!), who posted a 10.80 ERA in seven games for the team in 2026.
Many of you will rightly criticize Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer for this patchwork bullpen that posted just 35 saves, with 23 blown saves. Granted and stipulated, the signings of Phil Maton (who was awful thanks to a knee injury, which he pitched through instead of having it taken care of) and Hunter Harvey (who threw only four innings for the team this year) were both wasted money.
But you know what, relievers are fickle and fungible. Last year Hoyer was praised for putting together a solid relief corps that included castoffs like Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar, all of whom were very good in 2025 (total 3.6 bWAR, which is half of what the entire Cubs staff put together this year). Hoyer tried a reunion with Thielbar this year; that didn’t work. Neither did six games of Pomeranz in 2026 after the Angels released him.
The larger issue is pitching development for the Cubs. Other teams seem to crank out endless lines of guys from their minor league systems throwing 98+. The Cubs don’t.
That’s a topic for another day, though. Today’s is: Why not the Cubs this year? We saw them run off a pair of 10-game winning streaks early in the year. (And then a 10-game losing streak.) We have seen them dominate games with their offense. They scored in double figures 21 times in 2026, the sixth-most such games for any Cubs team in the Modern Era (they also did it 22 times last year, and two of those years, 1929 and 1930, were juiced-ball offensive seasons). This sort of offense might, just might, be enough to overcome the shortcomings of this mediocre pitching staff.
When the postseason starts, things tend to reset from the regular season. Last year’s Brewers, for example, scored a bunch of runs in their first two Division Series games against the Cubs, then stopped hitting, scoring only 10 total runs in the next seven games, squeaking by the Cubs in that series, then getting swept in the NLCS by the Dodgers. There are tons of postseason examples just like this. In recent years, the 2024 Mets won a Division Series over a better Phillies team because Philly stopped hitting. The 84-78 Diamondbacks did it to the 100-62 Dodgers in 2023, outscoring them in a Division Series sweep 19-6.
Circling back to that 2022 Phillies team, they won two of the first three World Series games from the Astros and then… well, just stopped hitting, scoring only three total runs in the next three games as Houston won the Series. The point here is — at least the Phillies got to the World Series. I think this Cubs team can do that too, or even win the whole thing, if they hit like they are capable of. Let’s hope they start that tomorrow against the Padres. Go Cubs.
Tyrese Haliburton sat down for Indiana Pacers media day and made sure to every reporter in the room knew his latest injury update.
"Before you ask a question, I am healthy. I'm 100%. There will be no restrictions," Haliburton declared on Monday, Sept. 28. "That is not news. There's no source. I am the source. I'm good. I'm ready to go for the year."
That is most certainly good news for the Pacers, who enter the 2026-27 NBA season coming off a rough campaign in which Haliburton didn't play at all while rehabbing from the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Haliburton also endured a frustrating case of shingles that slowed his recovery.
During the 15 months he hasn't played, Haliburton kept tabs on all the doubts that formed about his ability to regain his All-Star form and the Pacers' viability as a contender. He already expressed shock last month upon learning his first game back from injury for Indiana's regular season opener won't be on national television.
"You guys know the type of person I am. You know that I search for any type of negativity at all times," Haliburton said on Monday. "My screenshots folder, my bookmarks folder on Twitter is pretty crazy. That's just who I am. That's always going to be who I am. The last 16 months have allowed for a lot, a lot of material for me and that's fun. That's going to make the year fun for us ... As a team, we have a lot of bulletin board material."
Haliburton said he expects Indiana to compete for an NBA title again with center Ivica Zubac joining the team's core at last year's trade deadline.
How Haliburton looks with him remains an unknown until it actually happens. The 26-year-old point guard has been playing 5-on-5 against team personnel and teammates in recent weeks and posted a video on social media completing a between-the-legs dunk to demonstrate his progress.
Haliburton mentioned having to "rebuild who I am" during this rehabilitation process and noted, "the first time that I fell and the gym didn't gasp, that's when I felt normal again."
"I feel great. I can only say it so many times," Haliburton said. "I'm looking forward to getting back on the floor and you guys being able to see it for yourself."
When the Jazz made the blockbuster trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. last February, a vision was put into place. A vision of a healthy Walker Kessler pairing up with JJJ to create the most daunting defensive rim presence in the NBA.
Everyone was on board. Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Will Hardy, Danny Ainge, Austin Ainge, the Jazz fanbase. Everybody bought in but Kessler, who apparently wanted to do everything in his power to not play in a purple mountain jersey ever again.
According to Marc Stein in his latest post of “The Stein Line” substack, Kessler’s camp told Jazz officials that he was “determined” to go the qualifying offer route this summer, and hit unrestricted free agency in 2027.
Kessler was set to leave Utah no matter what. Nothing could have convinced him to stay.
Walker Kessler's camp successfully convinced Jazz officials that he was absolutely determined to go the qualifying offer route this summer had he stayed in Utah and then proceed to unrestricted free agency next summer, per @TheSteinLine
This alleged sentiment contradicts an instagram post that Kessler made to Utah Jazz fans in the midst of free agency rumors in June.
“I’ve seen what’s being said, and I want it to be clear that I have always wanted to be here — I love this city, these fans, my teammates, my coaches — that’s real to me. You don’t grow roots where you don’t want to be,” Kessler wrote to Jazz fans via Instagram on June 17, 2026.
The entire Kessler-Utah saga is a perplexing one. Why did Kessler have so much reported animosity towards the idea of playing for the Jazz? Even before Utah acquired JJJ, Kessler and the Jazz could not agree to terms on his rookie extension, failing to come to an agreement before the September deadline last season.
Kessler only played five games before succumbing to a season-ending shoulder injury, and even then, the Jazz showed confidence in the big man. In a recent interview with team reporters Eric Spryopolous and JP Chunga, Austin Ainge claimed that he wanted to bring Kessler back for another season.
“ We really valued Walker. Walker’s a good player,” Austin Ainge said. “We were planning on keeping him. But that offer got high enough that we thought it was the right move to make for the Jazz for building a championship team.”
Austin Ainge on the Walker Kessler trade:
“ We really valued Walker. Walker's a good player. We were planning on keeping him. But that offer got high enough that we thought it was the right move to make for the Jazz for building a championship team." pic.twitter.com/6wTuRYeaGY
Austin Ainge was diplomatic in that interview, and while he was mostly truthful about the Kessler situation, what wasn’t mentioned was that Kessler ultimately did not want to play in Utah. Had Kessler been really committed to play for the Jazz, it looks like the Jazz would have happily had the fifth-year center back in 2026-27.
Kessler in L.A. hurts the Jazz for 2026-27. It is a noticeable falloff from Kessler as your starting center to Jusuf Nurkic — assuming that they are still trying to run a three-big lineup with Markkanen and Jackson at the three and four. But getting four first-round picks for a league-average center who has had an injury history already in his first four seasons in the NBA, is a fantastic deal.
It’s still weird to think about how the Kessler era in Utah ended. In his rookie season, it seemed that Utah had found its Rudy Gobert replacement for a fraction of the price. The Jazz were set to have another all-NBA defender for the next decade. He finished third behind Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams, both of whom are all stars now.
To think that he would only play four years for Utah after how great the marriage started is disappointing.
Expect some boos to rain down at the Delta Center when the Lakers visit Salt Lake City on Oct. 25.
James slightly deflected that question at media day on Monday at the 76ers training facility when asked about the structure of his two-year, $8 million contract with the 76ers, which includes a player option for the 2027-28 season, and whether he's looking at it as his last stop.
Instead, the four-time NBA champion said he is approaching his 24th season in the NBA, and his first back in the Eastern Conference in nearly a decade, by being in the "present."
"I'm just looking at it every single day on how I can be the best version of myself for this franchise while I'm here. I can't speak into the future right now. I think that would be doing a disservice to myself, just living in the moment, especially knowing that I am where I am in my career," James said.
James chose the 76ers over the reported interest of the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. The 76ers become the fourth franchise James will play for, marking the first time he will play in a new uniform since the start of the 2018-19 season.
In joining the 76ers, who were swept by the New York Knicks in the second round of the NBA playoffs last season, James will be teamed up with his close friend Tyrese Maxey, who served as a "major factor" in his decision to return to the East Coast.
After announcing his free-agent signing with the 76ers, James posted on social media that it was his "last decision" and that he wasn't "going for money."
The NBA All-Time Leading Scorer noted on Monday that while he'll not have a Year 24 season again next season, he will see "what happens" regarding a 25th season.
"Me trying to focus on what my future looks like, I wouldn’t be giving myself grace. I’m more in the present now, understanding that I’m in Year 24," James said. "... I just like being in the moment, and we’ll see what happens."
TORONTO, CANADA - SEPTEMBER 28: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors speaks to media during the Toronto Raptors media day at Hotel X on September 28, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Early during Kawhi Leonard’s highly anticipated 2026-27 Toronto Raptors Media Day availability, he fielded a question from The Toronto Star’s Doug Smith on what he learned about himself in the past year.
His response hit the Los Angeles Clippers fanbase like a wall more daunting than the one in their home arena:
“I need pressure or I need a winning situation.”
TORONTO, CANADA – SEPTEMBER 28: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors speaks to media during the Toronto Raptors media day at Hotel X on September 28, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
During Leonard’s seven-year stint with the Clippers, they accumulated a 325-229 record (.586). His tenure had a promising start, with a second-round appearance and a trip to the Western Conference Finals in his first two seasons. Leonard then missed the 2021-22 season with an ACL injury and the Clippers never recovered. Los Angeles eventually added three first-round exits to their resume in the ensuing years.
During his lone campaign in Toronto, the team went 58-24 (.707) and ultimately captured the city’s first NBA championship.
“The city took a liking to me, even before we won the championship,” said Leonard. “People were thanking me for how well I was playing and leading the Raptors to a historic playoff run.”
In addition to highlighting the energy and the people, Leonard is excited for his son to experience Toronto.
“My son was born here, now he’s back home, and he seems happier,” added Leonard.
While any worries about his off-court life can be cast aside, it’ll undoubtedly be what happens on the court that determines whether or not Toronto ultimately provides Leonard with his ‘winning situation’. While there are many fascinating pieces on the team, no one is more important to determining this team’s ceiling than Scottie Barnes. As brilliant as Leonard is, he has often required dominant on-ball players next to him, specifically during his Clippers run.
In his final season with the Clippers, Leonard finished with a 33.4 usage rate, good for the third-highest in the league. He played with James Harden (until he was shipped off to the Cleveland Cavaliers) and Darius Garland, who finished with usage rates of 33.1 and 29.9. Both would have finished higher than anyone on the Raptors last season:
Brandon Ingram: 26.9
RJ Barrett: 25.7
Scottie Barnes: 23.4
Despite that, Leonard has seemingly bought into what Head Coach Darko Rajakovic has planned schematically.
“I can play off anybody…I can catch and shoot,” said Leonard. “I’ve played with limited shots before.”
While it’s admirable of Leonard to publicly concede touches, the Raptors desperately need him to be the type of bucket-getter that they had hoped Ingram would be, especially in the post-season. Still, as defences load up on Leonard, it’ll be important for Barnes to meet those on-ball expectations.
Barnes is excited for the responsibility:
“Just trying to work on my offensive game in those iso and late-game situations is where I can take that next level,” said Barnes.
Before the Q&A started, Leonard quickly set the tone. He wasn’t going to address the cap circumvention situation. Instead, he proceeded to show off a charm and charisma that previously eluded him. From joking about K’wine & Dine to addressing his viral laugh, Leonard seemed loose and willing to be vulnerable.
“I’m not going to stop laughing because people thought it was funny,” said Leonard.
The pressure and expectations won’t stop building in Toronto either, but it seems like this version of Leonard is built for it and more.
The Florida Panthers hit the ice for a final practice in Fort Lauderdale on Monday morning before embarking on their season-opening road trip.
It’s the first time we received a look at what could very well be head coach Paul Maurice’s Opening Night roster.
There were 21 players on the ice, including 12 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders.
Among them was new Panthers forward Brady Tkachuk.
His last action came during Florida’s second preseason game on Tuesday night in Sunrise, when he played the first two periods but not the third.
Afterwards, Maurice downplayed any sort of injury, instead saying something that tightened up on Tkachuk and that he was expected back on the ice in the short term.
After sitting out a few practices, Tkachuk is good to go for Opening Night.
“He’s ready to roll,” Maurice said Monday.
Now it appears that the Cats will enter the season with only one regular player – Brad Marchand – missing from the lineup.
Marchand has been skating and working his way back from offseason surgery, with the expectation that he will be able to jump into the Panthers’ lineup sometime in November.
Florida rolling without many healthy scratches is something we’ve seen in the past from healthy Panthers squads, so it’s not terribly surprising to see the Cats apparently heading down that route again.
"Hey, everyone, thanks for coming," Leonard said Monday, Sept. 28. "I’m excited to be here. I know why some of you guys came – you want to hear about the investigation – but in talking with the NBA and (National Basketball Players Association), I think the best decision is to move forward and focus on my time being a Toronto Raptor."
Leonard, who had previously played one season for the Raptors in 2018-19 and helped deliver the franchise’s only NBA championship, agreed to a two-year, $115 million contract extension with the Raptors on Tuesday, Sept. 22.
After his one season with the Raptors, Leonard became an unrestricted free agent and opted to sign with the Clippers, where he played six seasons.
"I don’t really go back and think too about it too much about it," Leonard said when asked to reflect on his departure from the Raptors. "Cause when you think, the next year was COVID, and I kind of made my decision to go to LA based off my family. I’m a big family guy, had a lot of older people in my family that I was able to spend time with that passed away.
"And just seeing babies be born and their cousins and nieces – that was all great for me, and I can’t take that back. Those times, cherished, and being able to see family and hug them before they passed, it doesn’t make me think about the basketball aspect of it too much."
The seven-time All-Star and two-time NBA Finals MVP will lead Toronto alongside forward Scottie Barnes and guard RJ Barrett. Although Leonard said he didn’t want to take questions about the Clippers and the investigation, he did say he felt the Clippers "weren’t too competitive last year," as they struggled to a 42-40 record. Los Angeles qualified for the play-in game but lost to the Warriors and missed out on the playoffs.
"I need pressure," Leonard said. "I need a winning situation. I want to try to win."
Toronto, which made the postseason last year without Leonard and was eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, should be competitive in a deep Eastern Conference.
"I already was a distraction for the past 70 days and wasn’t able to meet my teammates and do any of that minicamp stuff with them," Leonard said. "So moving forward, I just want to talk about the Toronto Raptors today. I did release a statement that you can go back to. So, yeah, like I said, I just want to focus on basketball and being a Toronto Raptor. Like I said, I’m excited to play and be in the city."
USA TODAY Sports' NHL experts believe the Hurricanes will win the Metropolitan Division again, but none expect the team to reach the Stanley Cup Final in 2026-27.
Two of the three picked a Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1993, going with the Edmonton Oilers and Montreal Canadiens. The third picked a more recent champion, the Florida Panthers, who won back-to-back titles in 2024 and 2025 and have Aleksander Barkov back from an ACL injury.
Here are USA TODAY's predictions for division winners, Stanley Cup Final and champion, plus four major awards winners:
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 27: Jo Adell #7 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates with Nathaniel Lowe #46 after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cleveland Guardians have made it to the American League Division series – how can they use this position to break the longest World Series championship drought in the sport?
The Guardians enter MLB’s playoffs as an underdog, as usual. They spent most of the season struggling to stay over .500, and then turned it on from the end of the August through September for the third year in a row. Their flaws are easy to see: they lack a 20-home run hitter (Jo Adell hit 23 this season but most of those were with the Angels), they are missing a strong third starter, and the loss of Emmanuel Clase due to a gambling scandal has winnowed the depth of their bullpen. With that said, the Guardians have some important assets baseball fans shouldn’t overlook when considering potential contenders for baseball’s biggest prize. Let’s take a look at some things that will likely have to happen for the Guardians to end their 78-year title drought:
Playoff Experience Buoys the Team:
This is now Stephen Vogt’s third time managing a playoff team. Growing edge mistakes he has made in the past – failing to intentionally walk an en fuego Giancarlo Stanton, going one to many times to the same relievers in a short series, and putting the worst defender you have ever seen in the field while facing Tarik Skubal – should be lessons learned for one of the best managers in the game. Additionally, Carl Willis’s steady hand will guide a playoff pitching staff for the umpteenth time.
On the field, World Series winners Austin Hedges and Nathaniel Lowe will provide needed voices of experience, and, because of the playoff runs of the past two years, Jose Ramirez’s vast amount of playoff experience is not the only source of familiarity with baseball’s biggest stage on the team. David Fry, Chase DeLauter, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, and almost the entire pitching staff have postseason memories to draw upon to anchor them for the current run. Vogt has the pieces in place to position his guys to last.
Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Daniel Espino/Joey Cantillo Dominate:
The success or failure of the Guardians in these playoffs will ride on the top of their rotation asserting their abilities on their opponents. Williams has a 2.85 xFIP this season, Messick has a 2.56 ERA, and Espino (2.69 xFIP) and Cantillo (3.62 ERA) have allowed a total of three runs in their three appearances together as opener and bulk guy. All four pitchers are capable of missing a lot of bats, something that is crucial for playoff success.
Rest Gives Jose Ramirez’s Hand a Chance to Regain Some Strength:
The Guardians only winning 85 games this season may seem like a disappointment coming off of two-straight division-title-winning years, but it stands as an amazing accomplishment because the Guardians’ perennial MVP-candidate only managed a 92 wRC+ and a .235/.320/.368 slashline, while accumulating only 2.2 fWAR (his lowest of any season since 2015). The lower numbers seem almost entirely attributable to Ramirez getting hamate surgery in June and trying to get his hand/wrist strength back while playing major league baseball games instead of receiving extended rest. Well, counting Sunday, Jose will now get a full week’s worth of rest. Can that enable his hand to regain enough strength to make him something closer to his career norms? His contact rates and plate discipline numbers have remained strong, so if he can find some of his missing power with the rest he gets this coming week… watch out, American League.
Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin Help in Middle Innings:
The back-end of the Guardians’ rotation has not been great, however, both Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin are talented enough pitchers to be dangerous in two-inning stints if needed in the middle of a game. After a bad start against the Mets (about which the Athletic’s Zack Meisel recently revealed that the Mets were able to hear his pitches on Lowe’s PitchCom device at first base), Griffin has had a 3.08 FIP with the Guardians. He’s able to get a groundball when needed, which can be immensely helpful in a mid-game situation. Meanwhile, Bibee is far too prone to the longball and unable to reliably get whiffs when needed, but, as demonstrated on Saturday, he is able to pull himself together to get outs when needed. If placed mid-game and told to let loose and not worry about going through a lineup more than once (at the most), he’s a pitcher with the playoff experience and moxie to make a huge impact.
The Volatility of Hunter Gaddis Swings Back to the Guardians’ Favor:
The Guardians should feel good about Cade Smith (more on him later) and Erik Sabrowski at the end of games, but Hunter Gaddis has been shaky down the stretch. In Gaddis’s last six innings, he has an FIP over 7. He is giving up too much contact and it’s LOUD contact. However, in Gaddis’s prior 15 innings, he had a 1.17 ERA and a 1.99 FIP. Was Gaddis tiring down the stretch? Can a week off spent in the warm embrace of Carl Willis and the restorative cocoon of talking through his pitch mix with Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges get him back to the 9.39/2.93 K/BB/9 and near 50% groundball rate he flashed in his recent hot stretch? Gaddis has had huge splits in FIP this season, as well, with a 2.74 FIP vs. RHP and a 5.74 FIP vs. LHP. Leveraging Gaddis’s appearance in a game to ensure he faces two right-handed batters, if possible, will be key for Vogt to use him effectively.
The Guardians really have to hope there is an answer for Gaddis’s struggles, or that could prove their fatal flaw. It is possible that Colin Holderman, who has been treating a wrist injury, may get healthy enough to make the playoff roster this week, and that would be a huge boon if he can be something like the 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP he put up in the Guardians’ pen this season, and if Vogt is willing to let Holderman be the primary 7th inning guy instead of Gaddis.
Chase DeLauter and Steven Kwan Perform Like Top 20 Hitters in MLB:
It is virtually impossible to win a World Series without a top 20 hitter in MLB performing as such. The Guardians’ Chase DeLauter is 19th in MLB with a 131 wRC+. DeLauter is more than capable of getting hot and carrying a lineup in a short series, or two. As mentioned before in this article, Jose Ramirez is, of course, still capable of putting up top 20-hitter numbers IF that wrist/hand manages to recover in a significant fashion during this period of rest. However, in looking at potential hitting heroes, it’s important not to forget about what Steven Kwan has done since the All-Star break; few midseason turnaround compare to Kwan’s pre-All-Star break slashline of .225/.332/.282 becoming a .353/.443/.438 slashline to end the season. Kwan’s 155 wRC+ after the all-star break is the eighth best performance among all qualified MLB hitters. Kwan has also put up a very good 129 wRC+ in 92 playoff plate appearances for his career. Kwan and DeLauter at the top of the Guardians’ lineup should be a difficult assignment for any playoff opponents.
I would be remiss if I left this section about “best hitters” on the Guardians without mentioning Angel Martinez’s run to end the season. Since returning from a broken foot, after the MLB trade deadline, Martinez put up a 151 wRC+. Will he see a single strike from the best pitchers in MLB during the playoffs due to his first percentile chase rate? I don’t know. Will he be able to resist chasing those pitches? I really don’t know. But, he has been a wildly valuable hitter under the radar to everyone except Cleveland fans.
Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio Display that Clutch is Real:
I’m not saying that “being clutch” is real… but I am saying that if it IS real, Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio are probably clutch. Rocchio has a career 131 wRC+ and Bailey a career 114 wRC+ in high leverage situations. Neither have been quite an average hitter this season (or even close to average for their careers), yet both provide excellent defensive value at the most important positions on the field (shortstop and catcher, respectively) and have consistently found a way to come through with the bat when it really matters. Shoutout, also, to Austin Hedges for somehow being a 100 wRC+ hitter this season, which may come in crucial at some point this playoffs, as well.
Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell Perform:
The Guardians added reliever Craig Yoho, starter Foster Griffin, and hitters Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell to shore up their roster at this year’s MLB trade deadline. Yoho may or may not make the playoff roster, and Griffin can potentially help in middle relief or as the fourth starter in a potential ALCS, but it is Lowe and Adell who have the greatest chance to impact the Guardians’ playoff run of this bunch. Lowe has been unlucky at the plate since coming to the Guardians (.280 wOBA compared to .307 xwOBA), but can he still be the hitter who had a 123 wRC+ and a .351 xwOBA for the Reds prior to the trade deadline? If he can, that will immensely strengthen the Guardians’ lineup. Adell has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this year (67 wRC+) BUT he has an insane 168 wRC+ against lefties. Teams love to try to neutralize the Guardians with southpaws; Adell and past-postseason hero David Fry are here to try to make sure that’s not an easy task.
Travis Bazzana Gets Hot:
It’s not unusual for rookie hitters to be hot and cold but Bazzana demonstrated this tendency in a fairly stark fashion this season. For example, from May 1st to June 3rd, Bazzana put up a 138 wRC+ and from June 4th-July 17th he had an 81 wRC+. From July 18th-August 2nd, Bazzana put up a 137 wRC+, and from August 3rd-August 31st he had a 45 wRC+. From September 1st-September 18th, Bazzana had a 244 wRC+ and from September 19th through the final game, Bazzana had a 35 wRC+. Bottom line, if former 1.1 pick Bazzana is on a heater, he can be one of those top 20 MLB hitters for this team and carry them through a playoff series or two.
Cade Smith Pitches Like the Best Reliever in MLB:
Smith’s dominance is well-known in the game. He has a 1.95 ERA and a 13/2.8 K/BB/9. I am almost 100% confident he is not betting on the results of his pitches. Vogt has repeatedly shown the willingness to let him pitch two innings to close out a game and may very well allow that multiple times in a short series. If Smith performs at the level to which he is capable, he and Erik Sabrowski have the potential to make at least three games each series 6-inning affairs.
There are never any sure things when it comes to the playoffs in MLB. We can say for certainty that not every of the plausible scenarios listed above will come into play for the Guardians, as much as I might wish they would. However, this list of ten ways that would make a World Series title-runs for Cleveland demonstrates that this team has a number of potential ways to beat oppponents that should not be underestimated. With the #2 seed in hand and a bye through the wildcard, the Guardians would also have homefield advantage should they advance to the ALCS if either the Yankees or Red Sox manage to beat the Tampa Bay Rays. Time to watch and see if these Guardians can continue another legendary September run into late October.
Quick Glossary: 100 wRC+ is league average offensive production, wOBA and xwOBA look are similar metrics with solid offensive production being .320 woBA or above, and xwOBA looking at expected results based on quality of contact. FIP, xFIP and xERA look at ERA numbers without the influence of fielding differences and with the factors of quality of contact allowed.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 20: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman looks on during batting practice before a game between the Yankees and the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium on June 20, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees defeated the Mariners 3-1. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The thing about chasing an object is that if it matches your speed, there is really nothing you can do. The New York Yankees learned this hard lesson down the stretch when any goals they had of running down the Rays to at least make it a competitive fight down the stretch fell flat — not because the Yankees underwhelmed in the final month of the season. In fact, one could hardly ask for more out of this team given the obstacles it had to face as the Rays left nothing to chance. Despite winning 15 of 23 games in September, the Yankees couldn’t gain a game on the Rays, who won 16 of 24 to wrap up their season.
What looked like the likeliest scenario for quite some time now, given the state of the other two divisions in the American League, has come to pass. The Yankees, who are the second-best team in the AL, will have to go through the most difficult of schedules to make it out of their league for the second time in the past three seasons. A three-game Wild Card round against the feisty Boston Red Sox and all the potential pitfalls a short series can bring await—one with a feeling of déjà vu, happening for the second straight season. Then, if they make it out, it’s a date with the Rays while the AL Central and AL West clubs battle it out on the inferior side of the bracket.
It hasn’t been the smoothest ride to get to this point, and based on how Brian Cashman has polled all year long, it’s safe to say expectations were not met — even if there are obvious caveats beyond his control as to why the Yankees are exactly where they are. Early in the season, when Cashman polled at 41 percent, the Yankees were battling with the Rays for the AL East title — but if you polled most fans, you would’ve been hard-pressed to find many who bought the Rays as a 99-win team. Frankly, there are probably those who, even now, don’t buy them at that level even now, but that’s an entirely separate conversation to have in the analysis of the gap between these two clubs, particularly at full strength. Cashman’s approval rating nosedived as did the Yankees’ chances of winning this division, partially due to questionable moves but overwhelmingly due to absences that all the money in the world couldn’t plan for.
For three months between June and August, the Yankees put up a wRC+ below league average, clearly struggling in the absence of the best hitter in the sport. The deadline acquisition of Luis Garcia Jr. in particular gave the offense a boost as he delivered an .842 OPS in August — even that wasn’t enough to take the team’s line over 100, coming in with a 96 wRC+ for the month.
In September, though, the offense came through with a 104 wRC+ that may not seem like much, but with this team’s rotation, it’s how you go about winning 15 of 23 games. All of this after starting off the month with the bad news of yet another Trent Grisham hamstring injury, this one keeping him out for the rest of the regular season. Spencer Jones continues to defy the laws of what can be described as sensible production coming with obscene strikeout rates, with a 110 wRC+ on the month despite a strikeout rate above 38 percent.
While Aaron Judge’s brief return before getting injured again helps, this September improvement boils down primarily to the work of Ben Rice, who, after a disappointing summer — given the high bar he set for himself — came alive in a big way. Still, if you’re wondering about the changes in impact from Rice with and without a fully stocked lineup, the Yankees first baseman delivered 21 RBI with seven homers in 24 games in May. The same Rice then hit six homers in 22 games this past month and only drove in 11. Those 11 RBI did not lead the team, with the distinction left to George Lombard Jr., who drove in 16 with five homers, providing more power than he had in the previous month. Back to the deadline acquisitions, though, as Garcia cooled off, Heliot Ramos finally showed up, proving a worthy presence in the lineup, specifically against left-handed pitchers.
It was business as usual for this ultra-talented staff, with Cam Schlittler wrapping up a likely Cy Young campaign with yet another sub-2.00 ERA month. Carlos Rodón was nearly as dominant as Schlittler, with both kind of showing up Max Fried, who had a solid September, and, lastly, Will Warren impressing; the only one who had more than his fair share of issues was Gerrit Cole. But looking forward to the Wild Card round in which he’ll start the third game, if needed, Cole impressed in his final regular-season start against the Rays.
About the Wild Card round, the Yankees already announced their starters versus Boston, with Schlittler going in game 1, followed by Fried and lastly Cole. While Boston hasn’t officially announced their starters, expectations are that Sonny Gray, the AL leader in wins this season with 18, will take the ball for Game 1 and likely be followed by left-hander Payton Tolle.
When it comes to transactions, not a lot stood out. With a plethora of utility options, the Yankees chose to designate Oswaldo Cabrera for assignment when they had to open up a 40-man spot for Clarke Schmidt. Cabrera was picked up by the Reds and was one of two players to leave the Yankees this month, alongside righty Chase Hampton — picked up by the Nats (and recently discarded) after being DFA’d early in the month. Hampton didn’t appear in the bigs for the Yankees.
It’s a simple yet loaded question whether you approve of Cashman’s job in September, depending on how much emphasis you want to give to certain merits and demerits in how the Yankees have been managed this season. In many ways, the déjà vu doesn’t come strictly from a playoff series against the Red Sox. It’s more so from yet another second-place finish in the AL East against a team widely regarded as inferior to the Yankees before the start of the season.
So with the regular season officially over and the playoffs immediately ahead, do you approve of Brian Cashman? As always, there’s a lot to factor into a “yes” or a “no,” and you might feel like your answer is more of a soft “yes” or “no” than a stamp of approval or a sharp rebuke. However, the binary question is the best way to get a direct read on fans’ thoughts.
Vote in the poll below and let us know! We’ll revisit the results at the end of October.
Note: This is the same poll that is currently appearing on the Feed, so if you’ve voted there, that should already be counted.
Boston Red Sox left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet continues his comeback from left shoulder inflammation during a side session at Polar Park on Sept. 19, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co
Let’s start with the good news, because there is some.
Garrett Crochet threw a live BP this weekend and is traveling with the team to New York. Willson Contreras DHed in the finale after a hand injury that scared everyone—he’s healthy enough to swing a bat, even if nobody’s declaring him fully healthy yet. Ceddanne Rafaela was back in the lineup for the Cubs series. Tanner Houck made it back to the mound in Game 162. Those are real things.
Now the rest of it.
Mickey Gasper is dealing with a significant biceps injury from Friday’s doubleheader and is almost certainly not going to be available for the Wild Card Series. Tyron Guerrero—one of the four bullpen locks Boston was counting on in October—is also banged up and may not pitch again until next year. Eli White’s foot injury is in fact season-ending, having had Lisfranc surgery last week. Justin Slaten is out. Masataka Yoshida is out (though we’ve known that). The enigma that is Curtis Mead is down in Fort Myers, and nobody seems to know what his actual status is.
Garrett Crochet will be the only player down in Fort Myers joining the Red Sox on their trip to New York.
That’s a utility man who provides quality at-bats against right-handed pitching, a back-end bullpen arm, a speedy outfielder, a late-inning reliever, a left-handed power bat, and a middle infielder—all gone or in serious doubt for a three-game series that starts Tuesday at 8.
Not to make excuses for this team. But damn. These guys are hurt.
The pitching is legit
Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez will start in some order. Chad Tracy says the current sequencing against Cleveland didn’t give anything away, and maybe that’s true. What matters is that all three are healthy and available, and that’s more than a lot of teams can say.
Brayan Bello and Jake Bennett give Boston a pair of genuine multi-inning options out of the bullpen. Bennett’s numbers against the Yankees this year—2-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 10 Ks—can’t be ignored even if he’ll be pitching out of the pen against them. Those two going two or three innings in the middle of a game gives the starters a real off-ramp. This is also where Garrett Crochet could end up—bulk innings behind your main starters to get to your true back bullpen weapons in Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman.
The back end hinges on Chapman. He last pitched on the 23rd—locking down three Ks and the save against the Guardians in a 1-0 win—but the question is whether a full week off means he comes back at his usual level. Nobody knows the answer until he’s on the mound.
Crochet and Houck: the upside bets
Houck back on the mound in Game 162 is the kind of moment you wanted to see. He wasn’t sharp, but he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since July 2025—some rust is expected. It’s not clear whether he’ll make the postseason roster, but four solid rehab outings and then a real appearance in a real game is enough in my book to use him some time in the next two days. He’s not at his best, but compared to other options like Jovani Moran or Alec Gamboa, a healthy Houck in a short series could be a legitimate weapon.
We haven’t seen Garrett Crochet pitch at all, but he’s determined to make an impact. He’s the most talented arm on the Red Sox and one of the best pitchers in the world. It would be foolish to count someone like him out.
Contreras DHing in the finale is the good news we all needed. The hand is healthy enough to swing. Whether he can handle the rigors of a full Wild Card series is a different question, but he’s available.
Rafaela back in the outfield means Boston’s defense gets considerably better (sorry not sorry to Jahmai Jones and/or Nate Eaton). He changes that center field situation completely, and in a series at Yankee Stadium with Max Fried and Carlos Rodón likely on the hill, having an elite defender out there to cut down extra-base hits matters more than people will think.
The Gasper loss hurts the bench big time. Tracy loved having him available against tough righties. Hell, Tracy loved him more than Connor Wong, who really felt like he was on the outs with the way Evil Mickey was producing. With Gasper out, Jahmai Jones becomes even more important as a right-handed option to deploy against Fried or Rodón—and Boston will almost certainly see both of them. Not ideal, but Jones knows what his job is.
The bottom line
This roster is more battered than anyone would like going into a playoff series. The bullpen without a healthy Guerrero and with Chapman still proving he’s back to his expected level is thinner than the numbers suggested it would be a month ago. But Houck and Crochet could give the relief corps real upside if everything breaks right.
What wins this series isn’t going to be one player. It’s going to be Bello throwing three innings in the middle of a tight game, Bennett navigating a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup, Roman Anthony continuing to do what he’s done over the past 10 days (aka actually see the ball and put it in play), and Adley Rutschman being Adley Rutschman when it counts.
It’s going to be a total team effort or it’s not going to happen. That’s the honest take. No excuses, even with the sizable list of banged up players. The real season begins now.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 20: Alex Lange #56 of the Kansas City Royals reacts after giving up a game-tying home run to Willy Adames #2 of the San Francisco Giants (not pictured) during the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium on July 20, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The 2026 Royals season did not go as expected. After back-to-back winning seasons, the Royals felt they had the core of a team that could return to the postseason with a few minor tweaks to the roster. No team in the division won more than 85 games, so even a mediocre season would have put the Royals in the hunt. Instead, they limped to a 69-93 record, the fifth-worst record in baseball.
The record tells you the Royals had a bad season. The numbers can tell you why. Here are the statistics that defined the Royals’ 2026 season.
6.65
No lead was safe when Matt Quatraro called on his bullpen. Royals relievers had a 6.65 ERA in the ninth inning of ballgames, by far the worst in baseball.
In 2025, Carlos Estévez led all of baseball in saves, and the Royals were the only team in baseball not to lose a game they led going into the ninth. But this year, Estévez didn’t look right in spring training. The Royals rostered him anyway, and he immediately blew a lead in his first and only outing. He was quickly placed on the Injured List, never to return. Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm also struggled mightily, and the Royals scrambled for late-inning options. Royals relievers were atrocious this year with a 5.07 ERA, second-worst in baseball, with 26 blown saves. The bullpen was so thin, the team had to pitch Alex Lange 59 times despite his 6.75 ERA.
64
For the third consecutive year, Vinnie Pasquantino was ice cold in April. The Royals were depending on him to become the run producer he was in 2025 when he drove in a career-high 113 runs. Instead, he hit .165/.274/.320 in the first month, a wRC+ of 64, and the team limped to a 12-19 start.
The cold start may have been due to participating in the World Baseball Classic, and/or lingering injuries. He dealt with lower back soreness early in the year. Then he injured his wrist in June, then re-injured it in July. It wasn’t until August when he really started hitting, batting .289/.366/.617 with 11 home runs in 35 games after returning from the Injured List. If the Royals are going to compete in the future, they need Vinnie to be healthy and produce from the start of the season.
50
The Royals needed to lengthen their lineup, and were counting on their two youngest hitters – Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen. Those two were terrific this season, combining for 50 home runs. Caglianone went on an absolute tear in August, hitting .411/.429/.684 and winning American League Player of the Month honors. He finished fourth in the American League in batting average, sixth in slugging percentage, and ninth in OPS. He was the first Royals outfielder to hit 20+ home runs in a season since Alex Gordon in 2013.
Carter Jensen also ended the season strong, his .788 slugging percentage in September is the best for any Royals hitter with at least 20 games in that month. He set the Royals rookie record for extra base hits and the most extra-base hits by a rookie catcher since 1947. He is also just the fifth rookie catcher with 25+ home runs and 75+ RBI.
If you would have known that Caglianone and Jensen would each finish with an OPS+ of 120 or better, you probably would have thought the Royals were having a pretty good season. And yet, here we are.
.598
The designated hitter position was created to give the game of baseball more offense, but the Royals did not get the memo. Their designated hitters collectively hit .204/.275/.323, a .598 OPS that was the worst in baseball. It was the tenth-worst OPS by a team at the DH position in the Wild Card era. And this is an ongoing problem – Royals DHs over the last three years are hitting a combined .209/.279/.344, worst in the game. The main culprits this season were Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen – each hit worse as a DH than they did behind the plate. Even Jac Caglianone hit worse in the 12 games he hit at DH. It could be a bit of a fluke, but the Royals can’t turn what should be an offensive position into such a liability.
2.58
A bright spot for the pitching staff was the performance of Noah Cameron in the second half. The lefty had mixed results in the first half, and decided to start calling his own pitches in late July. He allowed just one run over 23 innings in his next three starts, then won American League Pitcher of the Month honors in August with a 1.87 ERA that month. From July 24 on he had a 2.58 ERA, sixth-best in the league. He began using his cutter more and relying more on deception. His strikeout rate was still just 22 percent over that time, but if Cameron can continue his success as a crafty lefty, the Royals will have a solid mid-rotation starter to count on next year.
36
Salvador Perez was signed by the Royals as a skinny teenager 20 years ago. This year he turned 36, and Father Time has caught up to him. Salvy hit some big career milestones this year – he became the franchise all-time leading home run hitter, and became just the fifth catcher ever to hit ten 20+ home run seasons. But overall, he hit just .229/.274/.383, and his 74 wRC+ was fifth-worst among all qualified hitters.
Despite that performance, Matt Quatraro batted him third or fourth in the lineup 117 times. Salvador Perez will return next year for the final year in his contract, and he deserves a proper send off, but the Royals need to have a hard talk about reducing his playing time, such as a potential platoon.
200.2
Michael Wacha was the only pitcher in the American League to reach the 200 innings mark, a sign of how the game has changed in the role of starting pitchers. The 35-year-old continued to be the workhorse of the league, earning the second All-Star nod of his career. He had a team-best 3.32 ERA and had 21 quality starts in 32 games. The Royals have him signed to a very team-friendly salary next year, although some fans wonder if it might be better to get some value for him in a trade considering his age.
1,766
The Royals lost 20 players to 1,766 days on the Injured List, according to data compiled by Spotrac. The key injuries included:
Carlos Estévez 184 days
Jonathan India 163 days
Cole Ragans 145 days
Kris Bubic 121 days
Nick Mears 124 days
Maikel Garcia 80 days
Kyle Isbel 53 days
Vinnie Pasquantino 46 days
Michael Massey 15 days
Bobby Witt Jr. 15 days
However the Royals were in the middle-of-the-road in terms of total days lost to the Injured List, and a study by Dan Szymborski in August found that the Royals had only lost about 6.5 fWAR of expected production to injury, less than all but ten teams. Aside from Estévez and India, most of the injuries occurred after mid-May, when the Royals had already fallen well under .500.
5.17
The Royals were hoping starting pitching would be a strength, but it quickly turned into a weakness. Some pitchers fell to injury, but Seth Lugo was just ineffective for most of the season, finishing with a 5.17 ERA, worst among all qualified starters.
The Royals signed Lugo before the 2024 season, converting a rubber-armed reliever into an All-Star starter. They were rightly praised for such a shrewd move, but they tried to double down by signing him to a contract extension last summer, and it has gone terribly wrong. Since July 27, 2025, when he signed a two-year, $46 million deal, Lugo has a 5.67 ERA, the worst of any pitcher in baseball with at least 200 innings. He has one more year left on his deal, but he may have a short leash next year if he can’t turn things around.
7.0
Bobby Witt Jr. finished this year with 7.0 fWAR, second in baseball only to likely National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bobby’s performance came despite his first-ever stint on the Injured List, and a career-low 143 games played. His slugging percentage was a career-low .441, but he finished tenth in the league in batting average (.281), ninth in hits (157), sixth in doubles (33), second in stolen bases (45), ninth in runs scored (94), and led all of baseball in Baserunning Runs. He also led all American League defenders in Outs Above Average with +23 and should be a candidate to win another Platinum Glove.
It’s another great season from Bobby, but it is also frustrating the Royals have squandered another terrific performance from him without making a postseason run.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 23: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves takes the field before the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park on September 23, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In September’s latter half, the Braves did a big thing: they clinched their first NL East title in three seasons (but seventh in nine seasons under the current Front Office). They did so with a sweep of the Astros in Houston, while dropping every other series they played. Of course, that sounds more woeful than it was, as it was really one series win against a contender, one series loss to a contender, and then six meaningless games where the Braves largely played their regulars but goofed around on the pitching end, and didn’t really do anything that well in the process.
So, as a result, the stats from their 5-5 end to the month (after a 7-7 start) are kind of meaningless. The Braves didn’t end their 2026 regular season on a high note, but… no one’s gonna remember that either way, given that the season’s story was pretty much written before these last few weeks, anyway. If the Braves have a postseason run, or if they don’t, these last two weeks won’t really matter to anyone either way.
Probably the biggest thing to note is that the Braves didn’t collapse. Collapsing is kind of hard to do when you win a bunch of games you shouldn’t in aggregate, but there was no karmic payback or anything. The 2026 Braves started with division odds of about 1-in-3, which shot up to 3-in-4 and higher in mid-April and stayed there until late June. They were coin flip-y with a slight edge around the All-Star Break, were up to nearly unity in mid-August, and then bounced around some more in the 70-95 percent range until becoming basically a sure thing once they fended off the Phillies. The clinch was just a formality, really.
How did the Braves do recently?
Keeping in mind that these stats don’t really tell a useful story given that the Braves largely mailed it in for six of ten games in this span, they were:
23rd in position player value — 21st in wRC+, 17th in xwOBA, 11th defensively
24th in pitching value (inclusive of goofing off, as noted) — 17th in ERA-, 26th in FIP-, and 11th in xFIP-, with no real difference between the rotation and bullpen.
So, what can you say, really? Of the four games that mattered, the Braves were favored in one but won three; if the remaining six, they were favored in five and won two. Eh.
How are the Braves doing on the season?
Well, they won 94 games and clinched the NL East with six games to go. They finished those same six games ahead of the Phillies, whom they’ll play in the Wild Card round best-of-three. 94 wins is good for MLB’s fourth-best record, and they also had MLB’s fifth-best run differential, but just the tenth-best BaseRuns-based record. (Only the Reds, Rays, and Phillies outperformed BaseRuns by more this season.) My own personal amusement is that if you went solely off BaseRuns, the NL playoff field would feature the Dodgers, Brewers, and Marlins as the division winners, and the Cubs, Pirates, and Braves as the Wild Card teams. (Of course, some of that would need to be rejiggered given that the Braves probably don’t goof off for six games if they trail the Marlins by a game.)
The overall team ranks are not kind to the Braves as far as the 2026 season goes.
21st in position player fWAR
20th in wOBA and wRC+; 14th in xwOBA
Sixth in defensive value (yay)
13th in pitching fWAR (17th rotation, 12th bullpen)
Fifth in ERA- (seventh, fourth)
15th in FIP- (17th, 12th)
11th in xFIP- (14th, 11th)
Yeah, this is not really a good team. While anything can happen in a short series, it’s easy to say that when the Braves lost those sets to the Phillies in 2022 and 2023, it was baseball being baseball, and the Braves were a better team. In 2026… sure, one or the other is better by some specific paradigm, but neither seems particularly good at all.
By the way, the 21st finish in position player fWAR was the team’s lowest since it also did so in 2017. The same goes for its hitting outputs (25th in 2017); hitting inputs had their lowest rank since the 2018 team finished 18th. I don’t know what’s going to happen this offseason, but this team needs a clear reinvention of its offensive wheel, with whatever strategic and personnel moves are needed to get there. Changes weren’t warranted from 2024 to 2025, and things somehow got worse this year, which I would never have guessed given how 2025 transpired.
How are the hitters doing?
Yeesh.
Three of the team’s good bats picked it up over these last two weeks. Mauricio Dubon decided to add some wild xwOBA overperformance for fun. Matt Olson could’ve had a better run, but whatever — he ended up with a really rough September in the end. But all the guys that struggled? Well, they pretty much struggled, except for seven PAs of Dominic Smith. Ozzie Albies absolutely collapsed. Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Ha-Seong Kim remained mired in their doldrums. Put this all together, and the seasonal lines look kinda nasty for a lot of these ten guys who crossed the 200 PA threshold.
Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin were legit. No complaints about Ronald Acuña Jr. or Mauricio Dubon. I won’t even touch Murphy and Kim, who maybe could’ve solved things with enough time (Murphy’s bat speed is a real problem). But, the inability to do much to help Riley, to play Smith for 300 PAs despite obvious backsliding in his offensive approach that led to him hitting poorly, Mike Yastrzemski running into a career-worst year… like I said, there are a lot of issues to address.
At least almost everyone basically ended up where expected but for Dubon, and no one fell into some kind of horrendous xwOBA underperformance trap.
How are the pitchers doing?
Let’s also include the relievers, I guess.
Everyone got kinda shelled HR/FB-wise these last two weeks, but whatever. Chris Sale was still awesome, everyone else was meh or worse, especially when including the homers.
On the season, this was a team with Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, and a bunch of standout relief performances… and that’s about it. Martin Perez was surprisingly helpful, even if he got there in an annoying way. Some guys were pretty awful; the Braves had the latitude to part ways with Tyler Kinley before he could do even more damage, but JR Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver really didn’t take any huge steps forward. Smith-Shawver only had like 30 innings, so not a huge deal, but it was kind of a bummer to not see more from Ritchie despite repeated chances.
If I had to give special shoutouts this season, I’d go:
Michael Harris II — led the team in both fWAR thanks to his defense, but also WPA despite not having the best overall batting line. Harris had a weird year where he had an insane .442 xwOBA in April but then it declined every month afterwards, dipping under .300 in August… but he bounced back with a pretty big September (.337) despite some underperformance.
Chris Sale – duh. While WPA does not really “accrue” to the pitcher because it includes defensive plays made behind the pitcher, it’s telling that Sale and the defense had a “shutdown” in 15 of his 27 outings, while only posting any negative WPA in seven outings, and a “meltdown”-level WPA in just three of them.
Didier Fuentes, who finished second in actual shutdowns and meltdowns, but nonetheless tied Dylan Lee with 2.1 fWAR, which ranks second on the team overall behind Sale.
All that said, with all the various struggles, I do think this was basically the Season of Chris Sale for the Braves, as he was consistently, unequivocally good.
Sep 27, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
They are in the playoffs. Let’s not dwell too much on the how; let’s just focus on the fact that they are in. That’s all they need to make some noise in the playoffs.
Three up
Zack Wheeler – Imagine this season without an Ace level Wheeler. He was always going to come back from the injury he had, if only because the trainers and medical staff of the Phillies were never really worried that it would end his career. How he would perform was an altogether different question. Would he be the Ace the team had relied on for many years, or something of a shell of himself? No one really knew until he actually started pitching….and then we knew. He was the one that the team would depend on each and every time. Many people outside of the organization point to the firing of Rob Thomson as the turning point of this season, but the real ones know: once Wheeler returned, that’s when it all changed.
Aaron Nola – I’m not going to get down on a guy that asked for the ball on short rest when the team needed someone to step up. Nola may have gotten blitzed in that start Saturday night, but good on him for wanting to do something to help the team. His resurgence this season was one of the reasons they are still playing baseball. Imagine if he was the bad version of Nola. Does this team make the playoffs at all?
Bryson Stott – The only bat worthy of this tier, Stott was good this week, boosted by his 3 for 3 performance on Sunday. While it will be how the stars fare against the Braves that determines if they are able to advance to meet the Dodgers, the complimentary bats like Stott and Alec Bohm also have to show something of a pulse if they expect to do anything.
Three down
Jose Alvarado – Let’s ask the true question when it comes to Alvarado: was Saturday night the final time we see him in a Phillies uniform? One can argue that there really is no reason to pitch him in the playoffs outside of a mop up appearance. Tanner Banks and Tim Mayza are more than likely ahead of him on the left handed pecking order if a southpaw is needed in the next week, so there really is no reason to call on him when the game is on the line. He might still have decent stuff (I’d argue he doesn’t), but the absolute loss of knowing where that stuff is going means he cannot be put into leverage situations, situations that abound in the playoffs. He was good when they needed him to be, but his time here is at an end.
J.T. Realmuto – Yes he had the big hit Sunday, arguably the biggest one, but boy is he bad right now. One could spin it in a positive direction and say he had bad luck, but that would be strictly looking at data and not watching with your eyes. He is not right at the plate.
Alec Bohm – Another that really isn’t swinging a good bat either, Bohm might be the key to the lineup outside of the big three. Hitting behind that trio, especially against Chris Sale, Bohm is going to have to have a key hit or two if they have a chance to steal Game 1.
