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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The MLB draft occurred over the weekend. It was at the same time as the Royals were losing to the Orioles, and Blake Mitchell and Kendry Chourio were having uninteresting (though at least not poor) performances in the MLB Futures Game. Only the first 10 picks were aired on TV, and, apparently, even MLB itself couldn’t be bothered to rent their space long enough or pay their workers enough to allow for their sets to be left up during the entire draft. So you can be forgiven if you aren’t particularly clear on what happened. That said, our own Matthew LaMar broke down the draft across a series of posts over the weekend, all of which can be found under the Kansas City Royals MLB Draft tag on the site.

Keith Law had an exciting breakdown of the Royals first day (the day I would argue is the only one anyone can truly know anything about this early):

The Kansas City Royals played it a little differently this year, but I also loved their draft. They took Louisville outfielder Zion Rose at No. 6, and he will probably come in under slot. He’s one of the best pure hitters in this draft class and a sneaky-good athlete for a former catcher. Then they took right-hander Taylor Rabe, a late-rising starter from Mississippi who could move pretty quickly through the minors. Their third-round pick was left-hander Maxx Yehl, who came back from Tommy John surgery to become the West Virginia Mountaineers’ best starter this year. At worst, he projects as a good reliever.

The money they might save on Rose and Yehl (a redshirt junior) will go to second-round pick Jack Slightom, one of the hottest names in my conversations with scouts the last few weeks. He’s a high school righty with a very fast arm, a big frame and good characteristics on his pitches. High school outfielder Dominic Battista, their fourth-round pick, is a sleeper among scouts who have the Chicago area, as he’s a little undersized, but some folks love the swing and potential for power.

I mentioned on the Royals Rundown podcast that I think a team should be drafting for upside instead of floor in the early rounds and that I hate underslot strategies. That said, the scout consensus I’ve seen is that there is very little difference between players taken in the first round after the first four or five, and that was especially true of college outfielders. And when the reason Zion Rose is considered a safe pick is his hitting ability rather than his fielding acumen, I think the calculus changes. I also really liked the addition of a pitcher who throws strikes but also hits 100 MPH with the supplemental pick, and Jack Slightom was a guy that several outlets think was undervalued for how much he had progressed over the previous season.

But those are just some brief thoughts on a handful of picks the Royals made. None of that tells me what I want to know today, which is: How do you feel about the Royals’ draft?

The All-Star game, as these things generally are, was pretty much a bore.

The three Blue Jays each had their moments:

• Dylan Cease pitched an excellent inning, three strikeouts with a walk. The strikeouts started a theme. AL pitchers stuck out 15.
• Ernie Clement went 0 for 2, with ground outs on the first pitch of each of the at bats, but he made and amazing play on defense. Easily the defensive play of the game, getting the ball on the shortstop side of second, and made a perfect jump throw:

• Louis Varland pitched a quick eight, getting a strikeout, getting out of the inning on 11 pitches.

I thought John did a good job of trying get everyone into the game. I think it would suck to be invited to the All-Star game and not play

We get two more days off before the start of the second half, which begins with the, very surprising, Chicago White Sox, visiting Toronto. My son sent me a meme, before the season started, saying the White Sox were already eliminated from making the playoffs. After that it is the Rays. A seven game home stand.

The Jays are 6 games below .500 so would need a sweep to get there, which is unlikely. I’d normally say a 4-3 stand would be good, but 5-2 would be a start in heading in the right direction.

Much short of that, I’d think they would have to start thinking of selling. Only 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot, makes it hard to think about selling. But there are a lot of teams within reach of a playoff spot, so there will be a lot of teams looking to buy. There might be some good offers out there.

I would imagine that, if they are offered something really good for one of the veterans, they would have to consider it. I’m not sure that Springer has a lot of value, but someone might like some veteran presents (don’t email me, it’s a running joke, but every time I do someone emails me).

I got my England jersey on and I’m going to watch the game in a pub. It would be nice if they won, so I could say I saw them win once.

As always use the thread to discuss anything you would like.

The Yankees come out of the MLB All-Star break at 54-42 and 3.0 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the division, but with a 3.5-game lead for the top AL Wild Card spot. Let's open up the mailbag and answer some Yankees questions...

Have you heard anything about the Yankees being linked to any starting pitchers at the trade deadline? -- @newyork5ny

Simple answer: I have not heard specific names yet. Like everyone, I have read rumors that the Yankees would pursue Tarik Skubal, but I have not heard that firsthand, and he might not even be traded if the Tigers continue to hang in there. So I’m not sure what to make of those rumors, other than I think if he is available, it is safe to assume the Yankees will inquire about what it would take to get him.

I do think the Yankees’ starting pitching situation has changed dramatically over the last few weeks with Carlos Rodon’s elbow injury, Gerrit Cole’s relative ups and downs as he works back from surgery, and the absence of Max Fried. Whether he was nudged to do so or truly made the decision himself, that Cam Schlittlerrethought his decision to pitch in the All-Star Game indicates some level of organizational concern with their starting depth. And indeed, with Fried still working his way back from injury and no guarantees he will be at his best right away, Schlittler is suddenly one of the more important starting pitchers in baseball when it comes to determining postseason fates.

If they merely need depth, old friend Clay Holmes could be an easy and familiar fit should the Mets decide to trade him. And if the top of the rotation ends up at full strength by October, he is proven out of the bullpen.

But the simple answer here is that until recently, my understanding of the Yankees’ deadline vision – particularly after the injury to Carlos Lagrange – was more focused on catching and bullpen help.

As evidenced by the Brewers’ trade for Lance McCullers earlier Wednesday, I think we will probably start to see the starting pitching market solidify over the next week. And as it does, I bet we will get a better sense of where the Yankees are looking and whether they are worried enough about the arms they have to pursue top-end types – to the extent that those are available.

Reid Detmers seems likely to go under new Angels management. If the Twins decide to sell, Joe Ryan will be coveted. The Marlins are winning, but they seem willing to subtract as well as add, and have a veteran asset in Sandy Alcantara, though Bob Nightengale recently reported that owner Bruce Sherman does not want him traded. The Giants have a sellable veteran in Robbie Ray, though he might not necessarily represent an upgrade from what the Yankees have in the back end of their rotation right now.

All of which is to say, I have not heard specific names in regards to the rotation, but I expect clarity to be coming in that market over the next week, if not over the next few days.

Why isn’t Belli used more as a leadoff hitter? We think his ability to get on base + speed + power would be great as a leadoff. But also understand the need to have him protect Judge. So if the Yankees don’t use Belli in the leadoff spot, do you think they’ll try to get a true leadoff hitter at the trade deadline? -- @Twinstripe_reporters on Instagram

This question was submitted a few weeks ago, but we didn’t get to it. I think it’s an interesting one, particularly because the leadoff spot has been a bit of a revolving door with Trent Grisham's injury and Paul Goldschmidt's slump, etc.

I think you are right that Cody Bellinger could handle the leadoff spot, at least in terms of profile. He is faster than their usual choice, Grisham, and he has a higher career on-base percentage. But what’s fascinating is that in all his years with three competitive, big-market teams, he has started in the leadoff spot just three times – three starts at leadoff, 1,179 starts elsewhere. That lack of experience, in itself, might be reason enough not to test him there: Bellinger has proven himself as an RBI guy, and moving to the leadoff spot might inspire a change of approach that could disrupt that.

But what his lack of time there tells me is that managers of multiple strong lineups see him as too much of an asset in the middle of the order to use at the top. I think part of that is he is nearly as good against left-handed pitching (.801 OPS) as he is against righties (.819), which makes him an ideal lefty for matchup purposes in the middle of the order. He can protect the big hitter without needing to be protected. And without Aaron Judge in the lineup lately, the Yankees have needed him to help fill the run production void.

I don’t necessarily know who the Yankees would identify as a true leadoff hitter in this market. None of the hitters who have been raised in connection with them behind the plate or in the infield necessarily fit there. But I do wonder how the lineup changes if (when) they acquire a proven hitter or two. I still don’t think Bellinger jumps, particularly because Ben Rice has shown he can handle that job if Grisham isn’t the right matchup. Still, super interesting question, and one you’ve inspired me to ask around about more after the break.

According to reports, the Houston Astros are finalizing a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers that would send pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Colton Gordon to Milwaukee.

The deal appears to be a salary dump for Houston, who is reported to be paying down some of the salary owed McCullers Jr., who is in the final year of a 5-year, $85M contract. McCullers Jr. is also waiving his no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player to facilitate the deal. The deal is designed to free up space for the Astros for potential moves at the trade deadline, and any return of note is not expected.

Prior to the deal, the Astros were listed by Spotrac as having an adjusted payroll of $238,392,177 for tax purposes. The first Competitive Balance Tax line for this season is $244M. The Astros have been very leery of exceeding the tax this season, as they have been taxpayers each of the past 2 seasons, and a 3rd straight season as taxpayers leads to stronger penalties.

McCullers Jr. (32) was one of 3 remaining players from the Astros’ first World Championship team in 2017, along with Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. McCullers was a big part of the team’s first championship, starting Game 7 of the World Series in Dodger Stadium. In that game, McCullers pitched into the 8th inning, earning the series-clinching win.

McCullers was also a part of the Championship team in 2022, returning from injury late in the season to make 8 string starts down the stretch, and pitching through the postseason.

McCullers was once considered an anchor of the Astros rotation, but a plethora of injuries and setbacks derailed a once-promising career. Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon surgery have conspired to steal over three years of his career, and have greatly impacted his velocity and effectiveness on the mound.

After returning last season, McCullers Jr. made 3 additional trips to the IL. he was limited to 16 games and 55.1 IP, posting a 6.51 ERA. His velocity was notably down from his pre-injury levels.

In Spring Training this season, McCullers Jr. was handled with care, but showed velocities he had not shown in years. Unfortunately, he was unable to maintain it with regular work. Shoulder inflammation then landed him on the IL May 19.

This season, McCullers Jr. is 2-3 in 8 starts with a 6.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

Gordon (27) made his MLB debut last season for the Astros, who once again dealt with a rash of pitching injuries. He pitched in 20 games for Houston, including 14 starts, going 6-4 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. While Gordon wasn’t very effective, he gave the Astros innings they desperately needed. His 86 innings last season were good for 3rd on the team last season, behind aces Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez.

Gordon made just 4 appearances (including 1 start) for Houston this year and struggled badly, posting an 11.57 ERA and 2.57 WHIP in just 9.1 IP. Gordon, who allowed 21 HR in 86 IP last season, allowed 6 HR in just 9.1 IP this season resulting in his demotion to Triple-A Sugar Land.

Gordon has gotten himself together with the Space Cowboys, where he is 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 70.2 IP.

A three-year letterman from Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, California that boasts alumni such as former Mets Tim Foli and Greg Goosen, as well as all-stars Hunter Greene and Mike/Giancarlo Stanton among others, Jacob Madrid’s baseball career started off slowly, hitting .255/.367/.352 in his sophomore season with the Knights in 2023. He was a bit more successful in his junior season, hitting .315/.381/.479, and closed out his career there hitting .276/.448/.736 in his senior year this past spring. All in all, the catcher hit a cumulative .284/.408/.555 in 78 games with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs, 2 stolen bases in as many attempts, and drew 42 walks to 59 strikeouts, experiencing a major power surge in his senior year and slugging 12 of his 15 total long balls.

At the plate, the 6’4”, 215-pound Madrid currently stands square, crouching slightly and holding his bat at the eyes, wrapping it behind his head almost parallel to the ground before getting into hitting position. The right-hander swings with minimal load and weight transfer, utilizing a toe tap timing mechanism. In the past, his swing wasn’t very efficient, not utilizing his hips as much, but over the course of his senior season, his swing has improved ergonomically, allowing him to drive the ball with more authority.

The right-hander also has experience on the diamond, possessing a low-to-mid-90s fastball with a high spin rate, a high-70s curveball, and a split-changeup.

Where Madrid shines is behind the plate; defense is his calling card. He moves well behind the plate, keeping the ball in front of him when blocking. He receives the ball well, has a quick release, and a strong and accurate arm, able to throw from his knees.

Madrid initially had a commitment to Long Beach State University, but now has one to University of Oregon after receiving a scholarship offer from the Ducks.

Who is he and where did he come from?

He’s Jahmai Fitzgerald Jones and he comes from suburban Atlanta, which seemingly produces more baseball talent than just about anywhere else in America right now (though the most notable alumn from his prep school is former Pats center David Andrews).

Jones was a second round draft pick back in 2015 and cracked the Baseball Prospectus top-100 prospect list three years in a row from 2017 through 2019. But despite his pedigree, he’s never managed to hold onto a big league starting job and now finds himself in his sixth organization. The Red Sox acquired him yesterday for a player to be named later after he was designated for assignment by the Tigers.

What position does he play?

He’s an outfielder but, despite being pretty fast (he ranks in the 84th percentile for sprint speed this year) he’s not a very good one. In fact, with a weak arm and unimpressive range, he’s spent more time at DH than he has in the field. He was mostly a second baseman in the minors, as well, and can occasionally moon light there at the big league level.

Is he any good?

He was very good at one specific thing last year: hitting lefties. He slashed a Rob Refsnyderesque .288/.393/.577 against lefties in 2025, with 7 homers in just 104 at-bats, good for an OPS+ of 173. He also tends to do most of his damage in the air and on the pull side, which, at Fenway Park, is deadly for opposing pitchers.

Unfortunately, that small sample size of success he had last year is the only success he’s ever had at the big league level. After recording career-best marks in both strikeout and walk rate in 2025, those numbers are back to his career average in 2026, leading him to put up an ugly .137/.219/.221 line with just 2 homers, with the vast majority of that anti-production coming against lefties.

Show me a cool highlight.

When he gets a hold of one he can really mash. Here he is sending a ball to Albert Belle territory.

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

Saying something to Jahmai Webster from across the diamond using the super secret sign language that all Jahmai’s know and won’t tell you about.

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

Jones seems like a classic example of swing-fix candidate, someone the front office would stick in AAA for a few weeks in hopes of getting him back to where he was last year. But here’s the problem with that: he’s out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Worcester. Any fixing the Sox attempt will have to be done in the majors.

If they can get him to be more productive, he could play a valuable role on this team as a platoon outfielder who can get Jarren Duran’s bat out of the lineup against lefties. But there’s a good chance that that’s just wishful thinking and that he could be DFA’d for the second time this season before you know it.

Livvy Dunne is addressing her animated game-day self while watching boyfriend Paul Skenes pitch.

During the MLB All-Star red carpet in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, the couple stopped to chat with MLB Network for a few minutes and Dunne was asked what it’s like watching the Pirate pitch.

She admitted she gets invested.

“Obviously, I think I got put on blast a few times while watching him,” Dunne said. “I get nervous because I obviously want him to do his best. I love him. He usually pops out, does his thing, does amazing. But I feel every emotion while he’s out there doing his thing.

“It’s completely out of my control, which is really hard because while I was competing, I mean, I was in control of my own destiny. Now I just need to sit back, relax and trust him.”

The answer calls back to a moment in May when Dunne was caught on the broadcast muttering profane language during a game between the Pirates and Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

After a crack of a bat for a homerun that brought Blue Jays fans to their feet, Dunne was seen saying “f-k” twice before leaning back in her seat, frustrated.

The announcers called out the moment at the time.

“Paul Skenes is on the mound today and his girlfriend — the equally famous, maybe more famous — Livvy Dunne is here,” the SportsNet TV commentator said. “She was a gymnast at LSU. They met in college and she has eight zillion on social media right now. I believe she attends almost every single game of his and she is invested.

“She is not just sitting around and looking around. She is into the game. Emotional and occasionally profane. But she is invested in the successes and rare failures of her Cy Young award winning boyfriend Paul Skenes.”

The Pirates went on to lose the game, 5-2.

Later on the All-Star broadcast, Dunne added that she got in the batter’s box to stand in as Skenes pitched to her. It made for a “scary” moment.

“I stood there and I was frozen,” she said.

Dunne and Skenes stunned on the red carpet Tuesday, matching colors with one another.

The former gymnast wore a black dress with light blue detailing in the center while Skenes wore a light blue suit with a black tie and sunglasses.

The two have been together since 2023 after meeting while they both attended LSU.

Currently, Skenes holds a career-high 3.57 ERA following a Cy Young-winning 2025 campaign after a season 1.97 ERA.

He did not pitch in the All-Star game because he pitched for the Pirates on the final Sunday of the first half of the season.

PHILADELPHIA — The Houston Astros wanted to clear some money for the trade deadline, and the Milwaukee Brewers badly needed an arm for the pennant race.

They got together over the All-Star break and Wednesday worked out a deal to accommodate each other.

The Astros are sending veteran starter Lance McCullers Jr. and reliever Colton Gordon to the Brewers for at least one prospect, a high-ranking official directly involved with the talks told USA TODAY Sports. The official was not authorized to speak publicly because the deal has yet to be announced.

The Astros will also sent money to the Brewers in the deal with McCullers being paid $17 million this season in the final year of his five-year, $85 million contract extension. McCullers, who nearly dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of the 2025 season before third baseman Nolan Arenado exercised his no-trade rights, has pitched only 39.1 innings in eight starts this year. He has been on the injured list with a rotator cuff infringement since May, but has made three starts in a minor-league rehab start.

Known ballhawk Zack Hample was at it again during the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday.

Hample was caught on video catching a ball in the top of the fifth inning and turning to his left to talk to someone.

At first glance, it appears Hample is taunting a fan for not getting to the ball before him, but as the camera zooms out you see Hample is actually engaged with his cameraman for a video.

As Hample does so, though, fans in the area boo the baseball collector and one fan interrupts his video, forcing him to shoot another take.

People reacted on X to the video as expected.

“MLB when does this madness stop?” One fan said. “Please ban this clown. He laughs in the face of kids after stealing foul balls. While wrapped in MLB logos.

“You are enabling a psychopath not grounded in reality. People pay good money to have this lunatic climb over them for a foul ball.”

Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, however, seems to have an unpopular opinion on Hample, claiming he is “one of the great misunderstood geniuses of our generation.”

The dislike for Hample spawns from the idea that he takes away opportunities for kids to get balls from their favorite players.

Hample has mastered the craft of getting foul balls and homeruns, collecting over 13,000 balls at 68 different MLB stadiums, per his YouTube bio.

The video of spectators booing Hample comes as Philadelphia fans have sparked controversy over how much they jeer rather than cheer.

During the MLB draft Phillies fans booed Rob Manfred and any division rival throughout the night, but it continued through to the Futures Game on Sunday and the entire all-star weekend.

Even the teenagers in charge of catching fly balls during the 2026 Home Run Derby were subject to jeers if they made a mistake.

“I think it’s an honor, to be honest,” 17-year-old Reed Weiner told The Philadelphia Inquirer after dropping a ball. “When I go to Phillies games, I’ll boo everyone…. I deserved those boos. I liked it.”

Shortstop Roch Cholowsky, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB draft, has agreed to a contract with the Chicago White Sox that will pay him a record $10.35 million signing bonus, according tomultiplereports.

Cholowsky, 21, hit .320 with 21 homers and a 1.088 OPS for top-ranked UCLA this past season. He was the overwhelming favorite to go first overall, and the White Sox made things official at the July 11 draft in Philadelphia.

"At the end of the day, we were most comfortable with Roch Cholowsky with our first pick, regardless of what the signing bonus was going to be," White Sox GM Chris Getz said Saturday.

Cholowsky's bonus tops the previous record of $9.25 million shared by Reds pitcher Chase Burns and Rockies slugger Charlie Condon in 2024.

The slot value for the top pick this year was $11,350,600.

“We had interest in him in high school," Getz said. "And then to be able to watch his college career unfold and see what he accomplished and the impact that he had on his teammates and that program and now to envision that type of influence within this organization is something that attracted us to select him at No. 1."

More: MLB draft takeaways: A hitter's haven, a family reunion, a Royal regret?

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
• A June swoon so far
• Awful

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 6-6 in July before the All-Star Break. 6-6 is… okay. The Braves went 6-5 in the first half of June, well before any alarm bells sounded. Lots of teams go .500ish in a short stretch. The Dodgers were 5-6! The Brewers were 7-6! The Marlins and Phillies both went 6-5, gaining just a half-game on the Braves. Meanwhile, a bunch of previously-moribund squads did really well. It’s 12ish games, anything can happen.

Is going 6-6 a springboard for recovering from June’s plunge into the abyssal depths of teamwide non-production? Well, ehhhhhh.

On the one hand, the Braves finished eighth in position player fWAR over the first part of July. Yay, the offense returned. If you recall, my one big fulcrum point is this: if the Braves hit like a top-ten team from July-on, they’ll make the playoffs. If they don’t, they won’t. They did in these 12 games, right? So, what’s the concern?

Well, the concern is that despite a better (12th in wOBA/wRC+) set of outputs in July, their inputs were still woeful: 21st in xwOBA, with a .299 mark. For a team that finished 29th in MLB in June in xwOBA (.283), this was not exactly heartening. Yeah, they faked it to a 6-6 record in July. The needed improvement on a team-wide wasn’t actually there if you peek even a tiny bit under the surface.

Did the pitching do anything to help? No, no it did not. Recall that in April, May, and June, the team’s pitching fWAR ranks went from 10th, to 13th, to 19th. In July so far? 21st. 18th in ERA-, 23rd in FIP-, and 21st in xFIP-. The bullpen continued to be a rock, finishing second in MLB in fWAR in this pre-All Star Break-part-of-July stretch. But the rotation was sub-replacement level.

Game-by-game odds-wise, going 6-6 is exactly what was expected. WAR-wins-wise, 6-6 is also exactly what was expected. There was nothing all that weird in these 12 games… except that the Braves massively outhit their xwOBA and yeah they probably need to hit better to have a shot of keeping a playoff spot.

How are the Braves doing for the season?

The season position for the Braves right now is really weird, and deserves some space of its own.

The residuals from early in the season are banked. The Braves have MLB’s fourth-best record, fifth-highest playoff odds, and seventh-highest championship odds. They have a two-game lead in the division, and are five games “up” on holding a playoff spot.

On the season, they are 16th in position player value, including 12th in offensive inputs, somewhere between 17th-19th in offensive outputs depending on what you count, and eighth in defensive value. They are 15th in pitching value, though fifth in ERA- to go with being 15th in FIP- and 12 in xFIP-. The rotation is 23rd in fWAR, but the bullpen ranks first overall.

• In particular, the rotation ranks ninth, 24th, and 15th in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-; while
• The bullpen ranks first, first, and third, respectively.

The FanGraphs playoff odds have a lot of “modes.” The default mode, the one I and everyone else tends to reference, involves using Steamer/ZiPS and forecasting the rest of the season based on how players are projected to play. This is fairly slow to integrate how players have actually played in 2026, because half a season isn’t enough to really sway projections. There are lots of other methods, too, and here’s basically what it looks like in terms of the Braves’ projected end-of-season wins and current playoff odds:

• Default: 90 wins, 91 percent
• FG WAR (my understanding is this uses performance-to-date for this season in terms of production, not accumulation of wins in the standings): 89, 88 percent
• ATC (a different, meta-projection system): 91, 93 percent
• The BAT X (a different, fantasy-focused projection system): 89, 88 percent
• OOPSY (again, another projection system): 90, 91 percent
• Season-to-date (actual wins-in-standings to date mapped across future games): 93, 88 percent
• Coin flip (all games are decided randomly for the future): 89, 83 percent

Given that there are only 67 games left, there is not a huge chunk of time left for the difference between how the Braves are projected to play (85-win pace, accounting for injuries), and how they have produced so far (82-win pace). They are fortunate that their current record is so far above their production, as I talked about in Monday’s daily question post. These things may not have substantial implications for the rest of the season unless the Braves completely fall apart as they did in June again… but, fundamentally, they’ve gotta do something to pull themselves to at least sustainably treading water. That could be offensive improvement to a decent xwOBA, that could be pitching that leans more heavily on the bullpen to remove the win-bleeding from weaker parts of the rotation, or a host of other things, like someone going on an insane heater. It could even be something not sustainable that bails the team out, like a freaky-low HR/FB from its pitchers or persistent xwOBA overperformance from the hitters, though those are harder to bank on. The bar for the rest of the season isn’t that high, but the Braves still need to figure out how to get from where they are to clearing it.

How are the hitters doing?

This sort of spread is kinda-sorta why I had the bubble charts in there originally, even if they weren’t always informative.

A bunch of guys were productive over these last 12 games: Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, and even Jim Jarvis and Joey Bart. But, of those guys, only Baldwin, Yastrzemski, and Bart actually did the hitting thing well. As noted above, a bunch of guys (Albies, Dubon, Jarvis) just got really, really lucky. Austin Riley and Dominic Smith continue to drag down everything with their performance. The Braves may feel like they want to keep giving Riley rope, but it’s past time to do anything other than starting Smith.

For the season as a whole, the wOBAs and xwOBAs are closer (which, duh), though Albies’ high-wire act is what it is. Leaving aside the injured members of the position player corps for the time being, this is a team being driven by Harris, Olson, and Dubon, while the other guys are largely hoping to produce enough that the misery of having Riley and Smith eat PAs doesn’t fully careen the team into disaster.

Kinda funny: in July so far (left side) the Braves largely avoided anyone in the bottom-right quadrant, but also had way too many guys in the upper-left. And then Riley and Smith hanging out bottom-left, sigh. For the season as a whole (right side), you can basically get the narrative of the season: three guys are (were?) carrying the team, Albies is very fortunate, and a bunch of guys have been very blah, led by Riley’s issues.

Something silly: Matt Olson leads Braves position players in WPA in July. He’s also second on the team in PAs in that span, and has been a positive bat, so yeah, sure, whatever, okay. But then, second on the team? Eli White, who didn’t even have enough PAs to appear in the tables/charts above. Braves, man.

How are the pitchers doing?

The table above doesn’t even include Bryce Elder’s disastrous start in July… and also kind of summarizes why everyone says the Braves need multiple pitches. Grant Holmes and JR Ritchie did okay in July in two outings… but their xFIPs are still very meh. Lopez had a nice few outings, but his season stats are also meh, and that includes a bunch of time as a reliever where you’d figure he would’ve had better peripherals. Hurston Waldrep has too few innings to really talk about, but even those few innings got him sent down. And, while Chris Sale is very awesome, he was not awesome in aggregate over the last couple of weeks, though a rain-shortened outing ate into his ability to bail his own poor start out.

From this table, it looks like that the minimum the Braves need is two guys who aren’t actually playing well, but their “poor pitching” is more akin to Holmes’ season-to-date performance. Of course, forcing a five-man rotation isn’t the only way to cover pitching innings, and the Braves gave us a brief glimpse of that when using Danny Young to open for Ritchie on the final day of the “first half,” but it remains to be seen whether they’ll get creative instead of, or in addition to, adding pitching from outside the organization over the next two-ish weeks.

Beyond that, what can you really say? Dylan Lee continues to be fantabulous. The other left-handed Dylan (Dodd) is also having a nice season so far, with a 56 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 92 xFIP-. Dodd seems like a fine guy-to-use-like-Tyler-Kinley-if-you’ve-now-acknowledged-Kinley-isn’t-good. Grant Holmes is in the midst of a silly “heater” where he has a 23 ERA-, but a 100 FIP- and a 108 xFIP-, over his last four outings. He’s only actually pitched particularly well once, but he’s gotten incredibly fortunate twice, which is preferable to just getting smashed without mercy once batter number ten rolls around. Holmes won’t keep that up, but so long as he keeps faking it until the Braves make it, they’ll take it. Rhyming!

Anyway, not the most sanguine biweekly recap, but it is what it is. The Braves need to hit much better, and they’ll be hunky dory. If they don’t, though, you’ll be hearing the complaints about the pitching reach a fever… pitch.