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It's an all-day baseball Wednesday with a ton of strikeout and MLB player props to comb through. There is no shortage of edges and angles on the bump today.

Grayson Rodriguez is on my all-time fade list. Casey Legumina might not go more than an inning, and Davis Martin has lost his K stuff.

These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Grayson Rodriguez	Under 4.5 strikeouts	-125
Casey Legumina	Under 1.5 strikeouts	+125
Davis Martin	Under 4.5 strikeouts	+125

Strikeout prop: Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

Five strikeouts? Grayson Rodriguez has reached four punchouts just once over his last six starts. He is fighting to keep his rotation spot, and only one other MLB starter has a worse HardHit% than the right-hander. He might be the worst starter on the slate, and that says something with Zack Littell also taking the mound today.

The velocity is trending the wrong way as Rodriguez battles through back and shoulder injuries, and all four of his pitches are getting hit hard with an average exit velocity of 88 mph or higher. His best swing-and-miss pitch is the slider, but he throws it only 10% of the time, and hitters are slugging .579 against it. His changeup can generate whiffs, but the spin rate has dropped in back-to-back starts.

The biggest concern is the leash. Rodriguez has been hit so hard that a 12-out outing could be the ceiling today. He has gone beyond 12 outs just twice over his last six starts and shouldn't be sniffing 90 pitches.

It's a little juice, but this is a massive number for a pitcher who looks cooked. I don't hate the Under 3.5 strikeouts at plus money either. I'm playing this to -135/-140.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, Space City Home Network. 

Strikeout prop: Casey Legumina Under 1.5 strikeouts (+125)

Casey Legumina is a right-handed opener who will likely turn things over to lefty Ian Seymour. He threw 40 pitches and recorded six outs in his last outing vs. Toronto, but that came against a Jays lineup featuring eight right-handed bats.

The Texas Rangers should present a much different challenge, with a projected lineup that goes L, R, R, L, L, R, L, L, and R. That gives the Tampa Bay Rays plenty of opportunities to get to the lefty Seymour early and limits the chances of Legumina seeing a full second inning.

With just 31 strikeouts over 43+ innings, Legumina is not a strikeout-per-inning arm, and there is a strong chance he works just one inning today, which has been the norm in most of his opener appearances.

It's a sweaty prop because opener strikeout markets are volatile, but THE BAT projects just 28 pitches and 1.5 strikeouts, making the fair price shorter than -100. If you can't find the K total right away, wait closer to game time, as these markets often reappear once books adjust.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: One National or Two local

Strikeout prop: Davis Martin Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125)

Davis Martin was shelled for nine runs and three home runs a month ago when he faced this New York Yankees lineup, but he still managed only four strikeouts. Since then, the surface numbers haven't been terrible, but the strikeouts have disappeared with just 17 punchouts over his last 29+ innings. He has also benefited from facing some bottom-tier offenses during that stretch.

Today, he is projected for a mid-80s pitch count, but I'm fading the projections that are leaning toward the Over. The market is moving the other way, and the leash remains the biggest concern.

Martin's fastball velocity has been trending down since May, and he is outperforming his expected metrics. This was a pitcher who posted just a 6.56 K/9 over 140 innings last season, and the workload could be starting to catch up as his strikeout rate continues to slide.

Betting Yankee Under Ks is always a sweat, but like Anthony Kay yesterday, these plus-money prices on short-leash pitchers with workload concerns are worth attacking. I'm playing the Under 4.5.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Amazon Prime Video

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As any college student knows full well, there's no real incentive to get to work until an imminent deadline is staring you in the face.

Major League Baseball GMs seem to have perfected that approach this season with rumors by far outweighing actual deals as the 6 p.m. ET witching hour on Aug. 3 approaches.

Of course, the silence could be broken at any time with one trade acting as the catalyst for many others in succession.

While there's a temporary lull in the action, let's go division-by-division in order of the standings (through games of Tuesday, July 28) and see which teams are likely to be buyers and which ones will be sellers.

Game three of the three game series. And it is an afternoon game.

Tomorrow’s an off-day, so we are going to see the Odyssey, so if you were going to bet on when the Jays first ‘deadline’ trade will happen, sometime in those three hours would be a sure thing..

Today’s lineup, no Vlad. They say he will be available for pinch hitting, if needed, but I very much doubt he’ll be used. Davis plays second, Just his eighth start at second this season. They seem to have decided he’s an outfield, unless they have little for other options at second.

Go Jays Go.

The San Diego Padres extended their winning streak to four games, despite the bullpen trying to give the game away. Bradgley Rodriguez and Adrian Morejon combined to allow three runs in two innings, but the offense bailed them out and the Padres got an 8-7 win over the Colorado Rockies.

San Diego has shown some fight through the first 11 games since the All-Star break and that was exemplified in the final win against the Miami Marlins and their win against Colorado. The stars have been starring and if that is the team the Padres are going to be, there is no reason to sell at the Trade Deadline.

San Diego will go for a fifth consecutive win and a two-game sweep of Colorado today.

Taking the mound

Kyle Hart (SD) v. Gabriel Hughes (COL)

It was announced late this morning that left-hander Kyle Hart would get the start today for the Padres. Hart is likely the first of many arms to be used by San Diego in the final game of the series with Colorado. The lefty has appeared in 27 games this season and is 0-2 with a 5.21 ERA. Hart last pitched July 24 in Miami. He completed two innings and allowed just two hits and had two strikeouts. If he can have similar success against the Rockies lineup he be given an opportunity to take down as many innings as he can before the ball gets handed to the next guy out of the’pen.

Gabriel Hughes is a rookie pitcher who has only appeared in four games for the Rockies this season. Sometimes the Padres have trouble with a pitcher they are unfamiliar with, so it is important for them to have the same approach at the plate as they have shown over the recent winning streak — be aggressive and punish mistakes in the zone. Hughes is 0-2 in his four appearances but has a 2.79 ERA on the year. He has 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings and has allowed five hits in each of his last two outings.

Batter up!

Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill combined for 11 hits in the series opener with the Rockies. That level of production cannot be expected game in and game out, but if all three contribute the season may not be lost for San Diego.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, DH
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Luis Rengifo, LF
7. Gavin Sheets, 1B
8. Sung-Mun Song, SS
9. Freddy Fermin, C

It was another solid night for the lineup in the opener against the Rockies. There is no reason to mess with a good thing, but Craig Stammen can move guys into different positions on the field. It would make sense to get Bogaerts the day off considering the quick turnaround with the day game after a night game. That is the same thinking when it comes to Fermin getting the nod over Luis Campusano behind the plate, but Campusano has been much more productive than Bogaerts offensively despite the game-winning sacrifice fly and gives the Padres some thump off the bench should they need it in a big spot.

Relief corps

Michael King pitched six innings which left the San Diego bullpen with just three innings to cover. Bradgely Rodriguez had a rough inning of work, allowing two runs and Adrian Morejon allowed a run in his inning as well. Mason Miller locked down the ninth and eventually got the win thanks to the Bogaerts sacrifice walk-off. The remaining pieces in the ‘pen will be available with Morejon likely off due to his bloated pitch count.

It’s a “guys who are maybe about to be traded” matchup on Wednesday afternoon as the Orioles and Tigers close out their three-game series. The starting pitchers, Trevor Rogers for the Orioles and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, could each be on the move regardless of what happens in this game. The losing team is going to be pushed hard towards a sell-off; the winning team might end up selling off this particular pitcher even if it tries some modest buying.

Each team’s record sucks, yet they really aren’t far out of the playoff picture. But it’s a seller’s market out there and if a team is able to get the right trade, they can probably get a package of prospects that’s superior to just waiting to make the qualifying offer to the pitcher and then collect a draft pick next year.

The trade deadline is August 3. Counting today, there are four games remaining before the deadline. Rogers and/or Skubal are making their final starts for their current teams. Enjoy it while you can. Skubal has won the last two Cy Youngs and is pitching like he’ll win a third, unless he gets traded to an NL team. Rogers pitched like a Cy Young candidate for 18 starts last year and has been pitching like one for the most recent nine of his 19 starts this season. These two things together do not add up to a Cy Young award.

The Orioles have shown us the good and the bad over this series so far. Last night’s blowout loss was rather pathetic. Monday’s win was a nice, competent game. They are both of those things this year, the pathetic one slightly more often than the competent one. Facing Skubal does suggest this is more likely to be another pathetic game. This team has surprised us frequently after people have given up on them for a game or even for the season. They don’t surprise us for long, but they can still surprise us.

We’re running a poll this week with the simple question: Will Mike Elias be the GM next year? If you haven’t voted yet, check it out:

Orioles lineup

1. Taylor Ward – LF
2. Pete Alonso – 1B
3. Gunnar Henderson – SS
4. Tyler O’Neill – RF
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B
6. Coby Mayo – 3B
7. Leody Taveras – CF
8. Jeremiah Jackson – 2B
9. Chadwick Tromp – C

Tigers lineup

1. Gleyber Torres – 2B
2. Kevin McGonigle – SS
3. Hao-Yu Lee – 3B
4. Dillon Dingler – C
5. Riley Greene – LF
6. Eduardo Valencia – DH
7. Spencer Torkelson – 1B
8. Matt Vierling – RF
9. Javier Báez – CF

I look at this lineup and I think, this team should be better. I have felt this about the Orioles lineup a lot of days this season. Today is not one of those days. This particularly lineup, it’s fairly clear why the Orioles are where they are. Even so, neither team should be where they are, and yet, here they are. One walks away a winner of the series today. The other seems to be ticketed for trade deadline selling.

Not only has the Chicago White Sox organization improved in the clubhouse and on the field, but they have also shown plenty of appreciation to their fans this season, who have been returning to the park in droves after several rough seasons. This past Sunday, the White Sox generously invited a couple of us here from South Side Sox — Di Billick and me — to take part in a wonderful, nostalgia-filled day of baseball to celebrate National Parents’ Day with our families. There were so many special moments throughout the day, beginning with Munetaka Murakami getting to catch the first pitch from his parents before mashing two homers on his bobblehead day.

As someone who has been a fan of the South Siders for as long as I can remember (thank you, Grandpa), it was amazing to experience the day with so many small, thoughtful touches from the White Sox to make the day as special as possible. Walking into the suite, we were immediately greeted with good vibes, the smell of delicious ballpark snacks, and a little goodie bag with a custom pennant featuring my last name.

Other members of local media joined in on the fun for Family Weekend, including WGN’s very own Dan Ponce, whose family was extremely kind and fun to hang out with for the day. To feed into the nostalgia-filled afternoon, the Sox set up a photo station to make a commemorative baseball card, which brought me right back to Little League, where you’d get your photo printed on a makeshift card; the only difference is I am (at least) 25 years older and have all of my teeth in this photo.

To further enhance the day’s nostalgic undertones, the White Sox also created personalized scorecards with our family’s name on them to keep score throughout the game. Whether you already knew how to keep score or not didn’t matter, however, as former Sox outfielder Mike Huff filled out a massive scorecard on the wall that fans could follow along with or learn the ins and outs of marking up a scorecard. My mom was the official scorekeeper for about 10 years of my softball career, so it was a blast getting to dive back into that while also hanging out with Huff for a bit. I’m not saying my mom could keep a better scorecard than Huff, but I’m not not saying it either.

There were also photo opportunities with a Polaroid camera they had set up, adding to the old-school vibe they were (perfectly) executing, and they even displayed photos some of us submitted to highlight our fandom over the years. Not to brag, but the majority of the photos were from Di and me, and they were a blast to look through, bringing back memories of all the moments we’ve shared as fans over the years.

Truly, I was decked out in Sox gear before I could even talk, and while it was before the Carlos Lee and Bobby Jenks era, my number 45 shirt shows that I knew baseball even as a baby. Impressive, I know.

With it being Backyard Baseball Day at the park as well, my childhood dream was nearly complete: meshing my favorite game as a child with my favorite baseball team. Hard to beat. Except the White Sox did beat it, by bringing us down onto the field to play some catch with our families after the game. I’ve been on the field a couple of times briefly, but it felt special to be able to walk out in center field after a glorious win and toss a baseball around in left field. Did my arm feel like it was going to fall off by the end? Yep. Was it worth it? 100%.

My partner Willie and I were having a blast while my mom watched on, probably bringing back memories of when she’d watch me play softball several times a week. Willie and I got to meet WGN producer Eli Ong, and the three of us lived out a childhood dream together, mixing in a little long toss to see if we still have it at our ripe ages, but wow, that was a blast.

I cannot thank the White Sox enough for such an amazing game-day experience this past weekend, and it’s great to see the organization getting more involved with the fans and giving back a little bit after being dedicated through some hard times. The White Sox have been turning a corner as a whole, and continue to show they’re moving in the right direction both on and off the field. Special shoutout to Colin McGauley and Sheena Quinn for continuing to amplify South Side Sox voices and create an inclusive environment for all.

The Nats are no strangers to rubber matches, and they find themselves in another one today. This time they will look to take the series from the Blue Jays. The Nats have won three straight series coming out of the break, and they will look for number four. This is a big opportunity for the Nats in the Wild Card race.

Blake Butera is making a couple tweaks to his lineup. Surprisingly, Dylan Crews is out after a big night. Following a key error, CJ Abrams will be at DH, while Nasim Nunez mans shortstop. Vivas will be at second while Brady House is at third. Harry Ford is behind the dish. Zack Littell will take the mound this afternoon.

After suffering an injury yesterday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of the lineup. Kazuma Okamoto will replace him at first base. Davis Schneider will make his first start of the series at second base. Alejandro Kirk will be back behind the plate. Young Trey Yesavage will be on the mound for the Jays.

Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 1:05 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

Every game the Nats play is of extreme importance with the trade deadline looming. Getting another series win would be huge. If the Nats want Paul Toboni to buy, they need to keep winning. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

The earliest game time the rest of the way, so you’ll understand if this is relatively brief. This is going to be an exercise in bullpen management for Torey Lovullo, as the above chart likely suggests. Six relievers were used last night, so this may be one of those days where we have to ride with Eduardo Rodriguez for a hundred pitches, regardless of the results. Hopefully he’ll go seven innings, and the offense doesn’t have another “24 outs with runners in scoring position” day, so we can hand the ball over to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga for a couple of low-stress innings. Or better yet, Ildemaro Vargas with another double-digit lead.

Just to follow up on something I mentioned in the GDT. Gerardo Carrillo’s heroics, stranding the Manfred Man in consecutive innings, is now confirmed as the highest Win Probability by a reliever in franchise history, at +76.9%. The only better performances are all by Arizona starting pitchers who threw complete-game shutouts in 1-0 victories, most recently Zac Gallen against the Cubs in September 2023. It’s also #6 all-time by any reliever in the National League. Not bad for a pitcher with [checks notes] precisely two major-league games under his belt before taking the mound last night.

After Tuesday’s game was rained out, the Braves will (weather permitting) close out their 2026 slate of Mets road games with a Wednesday doubleheader which is scheduled to begin at 1:10 p.m. ET.

AJ Smith-Shawver is set to make his season debut at the major league level for the Braves after completing his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery the last few weeks with five outings across Single-A Augusta and Triple-A Gwinnett.

The Braves are largely keeping the same lineup from Monday’s series-opening loss, making just one change in the lineup. Mauricio Dubón will play shortstop and hit sixth, while Eli White takes his typical place in left, likely because Atlanta doesn’t want Jim Jarvis to play both full halves of a doubleheader.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is back atop the lineup for the second straight game, and Joey Bart is catching the second straight game to divide those duties similarly across the two-game day.

The Juan Soto-less Mets are not playing Luis Robert Jr. — somewhat recently back from an extended IL stint — in the first half of the doubleheader. Carson Benge replaces him in the lineup while A.J. Ewing will hold down his center field spot.

Follow along as the Braves look to win the opening game of the doubleheader and force a rubber match in Wednesday’s nightcap with Chris Sale on the mound.

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The Cleveland Guardians enter tonight's matchup against the Cincinnati Reds as a -127 road moneyline favorite, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

Considering Cincy's success against left-handers, my Guardians vs. Reds predictions are eyeing them to win the rubber match as a home underdog behind right-hander Brady Singer.

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29. 

Who will win Guardians vs Reds today: Reds moneyline (+119)

The Cleveland Guardians send Joey Cantillo to the mound tonight. His 3.46 FIP across the last two weeks suggests he's been a lot better than the 9.35 ERA, but Cantillo has still allowed a 43.3% hard-hit rate over his last two outings. 

Unfortunately, the youngster is up against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that sports a 106 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers this season.

As for Brady Singer, he's calmed down a lot lately, posting an impressive 2.04 xERA over his previous two starts while surrendering just 0.66 HR/9 and 0.66 BB/9. 

Singer's recent dominance and Cincy's success against southpaws give the Reds a clear advantage. 

I'd play this to +100. 

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians have struggled offensively on the road this season, posting an 82 wRC+.

Guardians vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+109)

Neither team is in good offensive shape, with the Guardians carrying a horrible 45 wRC+ across their last seven games. The Reds have not been much better, recording a 70 wRC+ over the last week. 

Even though both starters are vulnerable to runs, the bullpens are a clear strength at the moment. Cleveland’s relief corps owns a stellar 3.04 xERA over its last 22.1 frames, while Cincy’s pen has been even better, logging a 2.54 FIP in the last week.

With two cold offenses and a pair of bullpens in good form, don't expect a lot of scoring in the finale.

Playable to -110.

Guardians vs Reds weather

Conditions look excellent in Cincinnati tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from around 80°F at first pitch into the low 70s by the later innings.

Winds should be light and fading throughout the game, with no risk of rain. Weather should have minimal impact, though early warmth could slightly help carry.

Guardians vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Guardians -127 | Reds +119
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+122) | Reds +1.5 (-127)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+109)

Guardians vs Reds trend

Cleveland has hit the game total Under in 13 of its last 20 road games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Reds.

How to watch Guardians vs Reds and game info

Guardians vs Reds latest injuries

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After three straight losses, the St. Louis Cardinals look to get back on track tonight against the Chicago Cubs. Will they be able to turn shake this cold streak?

St. Louis is -107 on the moneyline, and my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29, see the Cardinals take down the Cubs this evening.

Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (-107)

I wrote in my daily moneyline predictions piece that I have a tough time backing a team coming off a 10 run offensive explosion the following day, which is why I lean toward the St. Louis Cardinals here.

Their offense gets a favorable matchup against Chicago Cubs left hander Matthew Boyd, who owns below average hard contact and ground ball ratings on Batters-Box. If the Cardinals' bats are going to break out, this feels like the spot. Boyd has been prone to allowing hard hit, elevated contact, which plays right into St. Louis' strengths.

Luckily for us, Dustin May has been excellent at home this season. He owns a 3.34 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, and has allowed just a 4% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

If he can keep this Cubs lineup in check, the Cardinals should have a great chance to come away with the win.

COVERS INTEL: Matthew Boyd this season owns a 3.81 ERA, allowing 10% barrel and nearly 42% hard hit rate to opposing hitters. 

Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+105)

If I think Dustin May can keep this Cubs offense in check, while also expecting Chicago to come back down to earth after Tuesday night's offensive explosion, I think this game stays under 7.5 runs.

That becomes even more appealing when you consider how much the Cardinals offense has struggled to generate consistent production.

May's strikeout rate has ticked up over his last few starts, while the Cubs have struck out at a rate north of 26% over their last six games.

After the offensive fireworks we saw last night, I expect a much more controlled, lower scoring game this evening.

Cubs vs Cardinals weather

Expect hot conditions in St. Louis tonight, with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, plus a slight breeze blowing in.

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Chicago -103 | St. Louis -107
• Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+163) | St. Louis +1.5 (-167)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+111)

Cubs vs Cardinals trend

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info

Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.