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There was a lot of flip-flopping yesterday with games getting rained out and guys not getting into the lineup, but I hit a winner for the third straight day and now have to thank the baseball heavens because of it. It's the only reason the balls are finally leaving the yard, and the MLB player props are starting to hit. 

Kazuma Okamoto is starting to figure it out at the plate, and he's a great option to target in the day's nightcap.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, April 30. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+320
Kazuma Okamoto	+600
Juan Soto	+310
💲Today's HR parlay	+8860

Yordan Alvarez (+320)

The rain stopped us yesterday, but our MLB picks are getting the best hitting matchup at a better price today with Yordan Alvarez vs. Chris Bassitt. Alvarez at +320 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270.

Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in multiple standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career.

Winds are blowing out to right field today, which is even better for the left-handed Alvarez than yesterday's wind. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.

• Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network

Kazuma Okamoto (+600)

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup is turning a corner.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ripping the ball, Ernie Clement is going yard, George Springer is back, and Kazuma Okamoto is putting it together.

There’s still some swing and miss with the rookie, but he’s adjusting. He owns the best Blast Contact numbers on the team and is squaring the ball up at a 54.5% clip over the last seven days.

Pair that with Top-3 bat speed and a strong HR price, and he’s the target indoors vs. Bailey Ober and a bottom-tier Minnesota Twins bullpen.

Minnesota doesn’t have a true closer right now and is using a three-man committee late. Eric Orze is part of that mix, just blew a save yesterday, and is likely unavailable. The fair price is around +500.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, MNNT

Juan Soto (+310)

Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card.

Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs.

Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SNY

Today’s HR parlay

Yordan Alvarez	Bet Now +8860
Kazuma Okamoto
Juan Soto

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Mets have placed outfielderLuis Robert Jr.on the 10-day IL due to a lumbar spine disc herniation.

Robert was sent for an MRI on Wednesday after his back issue didn't improve with treatment.

Since he has not played the last two games, the IL stint is backdated to April 27.

In a corresponding move, infielder Eric Wagaman was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. Additionally, right-handed pitcher Carl Edwards Jr. was DFA'd and replaced by right-hander Austin Warren.

Losing Robert is the latest blow to a Mets lineup that is already without Francisco Lindor (calf) and Jorge Polanco (Achilles and wrist).

Polanco has been making progress and could return sooner rather than later.

Lindor is expected to get a follow-up MRI in roughly two weeks, at which point more about his timeline should be known. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week that Lindor could have a "relatively quick progression" if all goes well.

As far as Robert, the Mets had slow-played his buildup in spring training and had been giving him scheduled days off in an effort to prevent an injury -- to no avail. 

Aside from Robert, New York has six outfield options on the active roster -- Juan Soto, Carson Benge, Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez, Austin Slater, and Brett Baty.

The road back to pitching in Major League games took a significant step in the right direction for Jared Jones on Wednesday.

Jones made his first appearance of the 2026 season for Single-A Bradenton, marking the first time he pitched against live competition in over a year.

The results? Arguably the best performance by any Pirate in the minor leagues all season.

Jones delivered three perfect innings against the Lakeland Flying Tigers.

The rehab assignment start went well for the 24-year-old right hander. Jones didn’t allow a base runner and struck out five, throwing 41 pitches (30 for strikes).

He struck out the last batter he faced in every inning and the final two in the first and third frames.

The Pirates are building Jones back up to be a starter at the major league level.

Jones earned a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2024 following an eye-opening spring.

The 2020 second-round pick earned a 4.14 ERA in 22 starts with the Pirates striking out 132 and allowing a 1.19 WHIP in 121.2 innings.

Jones missed all of 2025 with a right arm injury that required surgery. Jones experienced discomfort in spring training and tried to rest, but eventually needed surgery to heal his arm issues. 

He last appeared in an MLB game on September 27, 2024, against the Yankees.

Pittsburgh needs Jones to be a considerable part of the rotation, or even back end of the bullpen, to help a staff that doesn’t have strong depth.

The Pirates have lost four in a row, including the first three of a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jones will continue to make rehab assignments across the Pirates’ affiliates and could return to the Bucco staff by the end of May or early June. 

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It’s the rubber match of a three-game set between the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks and host Milwaukee Brewers.

My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers predictions and free MLB picks side with the visitors, who own the advantage in the pitching matchup on Thursday, April 30.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Brewers today: Diamondbacks moneyline (+112)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to win a series for the first time in four sets, sending Canadian Michael Soroka to the bump.

At 4-0, the righty leads the team in wins and boasts a crisp 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Soroka is blistering the opposition with an 11.06 K/9, leading the Arizona staff with 34 strikeouts. His slurve is especially lethal, creating a 35.8% whiff rate.

Brandon Woodruff will start for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he's coming off his first loss of the year. The veteran also hasn't been his best to date, boasting a 20% strikeout rate that would rank as his lowest since tossing 43 innings in his rookie season back in 2017.

He's simply not missing bats like he used to, and that will haunt him against Corbin Carroll & Co.

COVERS INTEL: The Diamondbacks are hitting .270 vs Woodruff, with a .778 OPS. Carroll is 4-for-8 with a triple, while Ketel Marte is 4-for-12 (.333) with a pair of doubles.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-125)

Offense has been the name of the game in this series, with the two teams combining for 23 runs through the first two games.

Even with Soroka on the mound, he will eventually need to turn it over to a bullpen that ranks Bottom-4 in the National League in ERA (4.93).

Woodruff lasted just five innings after surrendering three runs and five hits, and his bullpen is just middle of the pack with a 3.94 ERA.

These teams have cashed the Over in four of the last six head-to-head meetings, and the lowest total of the series is worth taking a run at in the finale.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +113 | Brewers -117
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+194) | Brewers +1.5 (-213)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Brewers and game info

Diamondbacks vs Brewers latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Last year, the Braves randomly swept the Tigers late in the year, pulling down the relatively competitive team into their own 2025 muck for a bit. This year, the Braves are rocking and rolling and having a great time, and can sweep the Tigers again with a successful performance on Thursday afternoon.

The Braves largely cruised to a 5-2 victory in the series opener, and then won the series when Matt Olson hit a walkoff two-run homer off old pal Kenley Jansen to deliver a victory in a game started by reigning Cy Young awardee Tarik Skubal. Will they have more heroics in store for us today, or will it be another ho-hum, wire-to-wire win? Or, dare they actually lose a game? We’ll see.

On the hill for Atlanta will be Bryce Elder, who comes in with a 47/77/92 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). That line is surprising in some ways, especially because his fWAR is a top-30 mark among starters in baseball right now due to his teeny-tiny HR/FB rate. Elder really turned heads during his first four starts of the year, where he was stellar in three of them, but he’s been more in line with expectations in the two since. He had a 6/2 K/BB ratio and gave up a homer against the Nationals, and then had a very weird game where he lasted seven frames but managed just a 2/1 K/BB ratio against the Phillies, which was the Braves’ most recent loss.

Opposing Elder and the Braves will be Framber Valdez, who is, in some ways, having a pretty unusual start to his year. Valdez signed a large, $115 million, three-year (ish, it’s a little complicated) deal with the Tigers relatively late in the offseason, after concerns about his personality cooled his market coming off another 4 fWAR year. Before free agency, Valdez was a model of consistency, between 3.7 and 4.4 fWAR over his past four seasons, with FIP- and xFIP- marks all tightly clustered between 75 and 82 in all four seasons. That’s kind of absurd when you think about it.

But, 2026 has been a different story so far as Valdez takes the ball in a uniform other than the one he wore for all eight prior seasons of his career: his strikeouts are down, his walks are up, hitters are finding it easier to elevate against him, and he’s getting by in part because of a low HR/FB. His line is 81/90/104, which vaguely resembles his 79/80/77 line over the past four seasons, but definitely not on the back of his pitching. In his six starts, three have been good, one has been so-so, and two have been problematic — including his most recent, where the Reds thrashed him and chased him after just 13 outs, while he posted a 4/5 K/BB ratio and gave up a homer. Even if the Braves battle Valdez to a relative standstill, they’ll still have a chance against a beleaguered and ineffective Detroit bullpen, so don’t count them out if Elder hangs in there, even if Valdez is lulling them to sleep with his sinker in the middle innings.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, April 30, 12:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv (and Braves.tv if you’re in-market, etc.)

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

At what point do the Houston Astros decide enough is enough?

This question isn’t just about the players on the field, it extends to leadership at every level, from the manager to the front office. Around Major League Baseball, we’ve already seen organizations take decisive action. The Boston Red Sox recently made sweeping changes, moving on from Alex Cora and much of his coaching staff due to a lack of results. The Philadelphia Phillies have also made headlines with similar decisions.

That raises a pressing question in Houston: will owner Jim Crane follow suit?

A Front Office Under Pressure

Both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are in the final year of their contracts. For Brown in particular, the scrutiny has intensified.

Throughout his tenure, there’s been a lingering sense of uncertainty surrounding his decision-making. While there have been occasional successes, the broader question remains: has he consistently done enough to improve the team?

That concern is magnified when looking at the offseason. The Astros’ need for pitching help was clear. With departures like Framber Valdez looming and multiple arms returning from injury, the expectation was that Houston would aggressively reinforce its rotation and bullpen.

Instead, Brown took a different approach, one that is now under heavy criticism.

Pitching Problems Mount

One of the most notable moves was the signing of Tatsuya Imai. So far, that decision has not paid off. His struggles have now extended to his rehab stint last night in Double-A Corpus Christi. He couldn’t even throw 3 innings, gave up 5 runs on 6 hits including a home run and only threw 31 strikes in 59 pitches. His inability to pitch deep into games or maintain control, as well as his documented struggles to adjust to Major League baseball and life in the United States. There is real reason to question whether he can figure things out and contribute at the major league level.

Meanwhile, injuries to key pitchers like Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier have left the rotation in flux. The constant shuffling has placed enormous strain on the bullpen, as they are being pressed into extended action and thus, taxing the arms that have actually been effective. As a whole, the staff has the worst ERA in baseball, allowing nearly six runs per game.

This is particularly troubling given Brown’s offseason confidence in the team’s pitching depth, a belief that now appears misplaced.

Missed Opportunities in the Lineup

Pitching isn’t the only issue. The Astros also entered the season with a clear need for a corner outfielder to balance a roster heavy on infield talent. Despite that, no significant addition was made.

This is where frustration deepens. Across sports, general managers on the hot seat often take bold risks to improve their teams in the short term. In Houston’s case, that urgency has been noticeably absent.

A Team Worth Saving

Ironically, the Astros’ offense has been one of the bright spots. They remain among the more productive lineups in baseball, good enough to keep the team within striking distance in the division. But at a certain point, you have to either go out and get what you need, or press the reset button and start to sell off what you have.

That’s what makes the current situation so frustrating. Even with their struggles, the Astros are still only a few games out of first place. There is time to turn things around, but only if meaningful changes are made.

Is Change Inevitable?

For Dana Brown, the message is clear: act now or risk being shown the door.

Joe Espada’s situation is more nuanced. As manager, he’s working with the roster he’s been given. However, in professional sports, managers often become the scapegoat when teams underperform. With his contract also expiring, he may not be immune to change.

One possible replacement already exists within the organization. Bench coach Omar Lopez, fresh off a World Baseball Classic victory and widely respected in the clubhouse, could be a logical candidate if Crane decides to make a move. Is it fair, no, but life isn’t fair and firing Espada may be Crane’s first move in an attempt to shake things up.

The Clock Is Ticking

Ultimately, the Astros find themselves at a crossroads. Between underperforming acquisitions, a struggling pitching staff, and expiring contracts in leadership, the pressure is building.

With a strong offense keeping them competitive, the opportunity to salvage the season still exists. But time is running out.

If improvements don’t come soon, it may only be a matter of time before Jim Crane makes sweeping changes in an effort to jumpstart the remainder of the 2026 campaign.

Arguably the Phillies’ biggest weakness in the start to a season that’s been full of them is left-handed pitching. As a team, they’re dead last in batting average (.180), OPS (.567), and wRC+ (61) against lefties. They have yet to win a game against a non-opener left-handed starting pitcher. Clearly, the Phillies need all the help they can get against lefties.

Could Randal Grichuk be of some assistance? The 34-year-old outfielder was designated for assignment by the New York Yankees yesterday after hitting .194 with a .534 OPS in 16 games played. Grichuk, who signed a one year, $2.5M minor league deal with New York in the offseason, is a right-handed hitting platoon option who has had success against lefties in the past. For his career, Grichuk owns a .268/.318/.498 batting line against left-handed pitching over the course of his 13-year career in the majors.

Grichuk’s most recent success came in 2024 as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He played in 106 games for Arizona and hit .291 with an .875 OPS and 12 home runs while being deployed in a platoon. Grichuk particularly mashed lefties, hitting .319 with a .913 OPS across 184 plate appearances. He re-signed with the D-Backs for 2025 but didn’t have the same level of success, hitting .240 with a .734 OPS in 70 games. His numbers against lefties drastically declined, with his average falling to .226 and his OPS dropping to .737. Grichuk was traded at the 2025 deadline to the Royals and cratered while in Kansas City, hitting .206 with a .566 OPS in 43 games. If you look at the sample size that dates back to his arrival in Kansas City and includes his time in New York this season, Grichuk is hitting .200 with a .556 OPS over his last 140 plate appearances with a 22.9% strikeout rate.

But the Phillies don’t currently have definitively better options. The team talked up Otto Kemp for the right-handed platoon role at every given opportunity over the offseason, but he has already been demoted to Triple-A after going 2 for 20 with 9 strikeouts in 10 games while playing brutal defense in the outfield. Felix Reyes is currently occupying Kemp’s role as Brandon Marsh’s platoon partner, but his results have not been much better. The surprising call-up hit a home run off of Chris Sale in his first at-bat, but has since collected just two hits, both of which were singles. Reyes’ tendency from his minor league career of chasing outside of the zone has carried over to the majors, as he’s swung at an alarming 58.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone through his first five games in the big leagues.

So, should the Phillies be interested in Randal Grichuk? Is he worth the flier to see if the Phillies can alleviate some of their struggles against left-handed pitching?

The Royals announced two major pitching injuries before yesterday’s 5-2 loss.

Right-handers Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna had elbow surgeries on Wednesday, with Bergert undergoing a full ulnar collateral ligament repair (Tommy John) and Kudrna – the Royals’ No. 9 prospect – undergoing an olecranon stress fracture repair on his elbow. Both are expected to miss the rest of the season.

Bergert was expected to be a major contributor for the Royals in ‘26 after they acquired him, along with Stephen Kolek, from the Padres at last year’s Trade Deadline. Bergert opened the season in Triple-A Omaha but was viewed as No. 1 on the depth chart should the Royals need a starter in the big leagues or even a fresh arm in the bullpen.

Kudrna made just one start that lasted two innings in Triple-A this year before he was placed on the IL on April 6. The olecranon is the bony tip of the elbow, and it can fracture due to overuse, typically in throwing athletes. The surgical option typically involves placing screws into the elbow to stabilize the fracture.

If you didn’t stay up late on Tuesday night, the Salvy splash got a little wild.

Columbia Fireflies SS Josh Hammond got a shoutout for being the hottest hitting prospect for the Royals currently.

Taken with the 28th overall pick last year as a North Carolina prepster, Hammond hasn’t needed any time to settle into his first full season with a .316/.398/.526 line through 20 games with Single-A Columbia. His eight doubles are third-most in the Carolina League, while his 11 extra-base hits are tied for fifth-most. The right-handed slugger was considered to have above-average power potential coming out of the Draft, and it may not be long until more of his hard-hit balls leave the yard as he gets even more comfortable this summer.

Royals Keep explained why the Royals are platooning a lot of their hitters.

Kevin O’Brien talked on why the Royals need to improve their road offense, which hasn’t been corrected yet in Sacramento.

Nathan Church of the Cardinals is robbing game winners left and right.

The Braves keep winning, and Kenley Jansen keeps giving up walk-off dingers.

Could Padres closer Mason Miller really win the NL Cy Young award this year?

D-Backs Ildemaro Vargas extends his hit streak to 25 games.

The Marlins turned one of the most improbable double plays to win the game and series against the Dodgers.

Today’s song of the day is Baker Street by Gerry Rafferty.

In the Mets’ loss to the Nationals yesterday, several of the team’s most glaring deficiencies were on full display, but David Peterson and Sean Manaea, the team’s pair of struggling left-handed pitchers, stood out the most. Neither pitcher looks competitive at the moment, and while the team’s lineup might be its downfall anyway, it sure would be nice to see the Mets putting capable pitchers out there on a daily basis.

Across seven appearances, two of which came out of the bullpen, Peterson has thrown 30.1 innings with a 6.53 ERA. Manaea has thrown 22.0 innings with a 6.55 ERA. Combined, they’ve thrown 19.4 percent of the Mets’ innings so far, making their combined contribution to the team’s struggles fairly significant. And the underlying metrics on their Statcast pages don’t look good, even as metrics like FIP and DRA suggest that both pitchers have been better than their ERAs would suggest.

If there’s any hope remaining in the Mets’ season, the team can’t just wait to see if both of these pitchers end up finding better results. But with both pitchers no longer having options thanks to their considerable major league service time, there are only two ways to get them off the active roster: placing them on the injured list, which the team did with Kodai Senga this week, or designating them for assignment and exposing them to waivers. In the latter scenario, they’d have the option of declining an outright assignment to Syracuse even if they were to clear.

Manaea has the remainder of this season and all of next season remaining on his three-year deal with the Mets that pays him $25 million per year. Should the team go the DFA route and lose him, it would be eating even more money than it is on the failed Frankie Montas contract that paid $34 million over the course of last season and this season. Peterson wouldn’t require eating nearly as much money, as he’s earning $8.1 million this year before he’s eligible for free agency following the season.

If the team goes either route to get either pitcher off the active roster, there’s also the issue of replacing them. With Manaea, that’s really not too much of a concern, as he’s essentially been used as a mop-up man, and his diminished stuff has gotten exposed in a big way lately. The Mets might feel like they need to have at least one long reliever in their bullpen, but any potentially useful reliever—Austin Warren is the one who comes to mind at the moment—would be an upgrade.

And if a keeping a long reliever in the mix is a priority, that might mean Tobias Myers is kind of stuck in that role, even if it would be awfully tempting to move him into Peterson’s rotation spot as a full-on starting pitcher rather than having him open for Peterson like he did a couple of times recently.

As for pitching prospects in the upper minors, Jonah Tong doesn’t look quite ready to get another major league look just yet. His strikeout rate remains phenomenal thus far in Triple-A, but he’s still working on walk and home run issues and currently has a 5.68 ERA for Syracuse. Jack Wenninger, who’s slated to start one of Syracuse’s games in a doubleheader today, has a much shinier 2.16 ERA for Syracuse so far this year. But his walk rate is an issue, and his last start saw him lose some velocity in the third inning while totally losing the strike zone. At minimum, you’d think he needs a strong outing today to get considered for a call-up in the near future.

Whatever the case, though, it seems like the Mets really should try doing something. The team’s biggest roster moves thus far have all involved the injured list. At the time of this writing, the organization continues to support manager Carlos Mendoza, even as the Red Sox and Phillies have fired their managers for similarly disappointing starts to the 2026 season.

Exercising patience beats reacting in a knee-jerk fashion, but staying the course with a team that collectively has a broken GPS seems like a bad plan.

Hickory starter Aidan Deakins threw 5.1 shutout innings, striking out four and walking four.

Yolfram Castillo and Daniel Flames each had a hit. In 10 innings, the Crawdads hitters struck out 15 times.

Hickory box score

Dalton Pence started for Hub City, allowing three runs on three solo homers while striking out six in five innings. Joey Danielson allowed two runs in an inning.

Malcolm Moore was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Maxton Martin had a double. Rafe Perich was 2 for 4 with a double and a walk.

Hub City box score

25 year old Aussie Blake Townsend started for Frisco, allowing two runs in four innings, striking out three and walking three.

Dylan Dreiling had a hit and a stolen base. Keith Jones II had a homer. Ian Moller had a hit and a walk.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter Josh Stephan struck out five and walked four in 4.1 IP, allowing one run. Emiliano Teodo went 0.2 IP, walking two, striking out one and allowing two runs. Thomas Ireland struck out two in a shutout inning. Alexis Diaz struck out two in a scoreless inning.

Cam Cauley had a double and a walk. Michael Helman was 2 for 5 with a homer and a stolen base. Justin Foscue had a hit and a walk.

Round Rock box score

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Almost half of the MLB schedule today starts before 1:00 p.m. ET, so we're starting nice and early with our MLB best bets, based on prices available at Polymarket.

Read on to see why our expert MLB picks start by targeting early offense in the first leg of the Astros/Orioles doubleheader, then look at the Reds to roll over a so-so starting pitcher and Arizona to win in a spot it appears mispriced.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: HOU/BAL YRFI (G1)	-113
Jon Metler: A's ML	-122
Neil Parker: CIN -1.5	+127
Joe Osborne: ARI ML	+117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/Orioles YRFI (Game 1)

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

The total in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles is 9.5, and the YRFI is trading at just -113 — I’m in. This is the best pitching matchup to target for early offense: Chris Bassitt has had issues with Yordan Alvarez, who has taken him deep five times in 22 at-bats. On the other side, Peter Lambert is likely punching above his weight early, and I’m not buying the turnaround after prior struggles. There are command concerns on both sides that point to traffic on the bases early — this sets up well for runs in the opening frame (and throughout the game).

Jon Metler's expert pick: Athletics moneyline

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

The Athletics are trading as a 55-cent favorite, and that number is too low — I make them closer to a 61-cent favorite in this spot. Sutter Health Park is a hitter-friendly ballpark, where the ball really carries, and the A's lineup is built to take advantage of that. That’s a major concern for Noah Cameron, the Kansas City Royals’ starting pitcher, who profiles as an extreme fly-ball pitcher. When you have power right-handed bats in the middle of the lineup (such as Shea Langeliers) who thrive against lefties, allowing that many fly balls becomes a dangerous game, especially with the wind blowing out and conditions sitting at a sunny 74 degrees in Sacramento.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Reds -1.5

Price: 44¢ (+127) at Polymarket

The Colorado Rockies rank 22nd in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws — so I’m expecting Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to string together some scoreless innings this afternoon, as he's a better pitcher than his .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate indicate. Colorado counters with Michael Lorenzen, a run-of-the-mill righty with a 4.20 ERA across 551 1/3 innings since transitioning to a full-time starter in 2022.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks ML

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

Sign me up for the Arizona Diamondbacks as a small dog when they have a clear edge in both starting pitching and hitting. Mike Soroka is in the midst of a breakout season, after injuries stalled his career, and Arizona is 4-1 in his starts as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of them. He's in a great spot to carve up a struggling Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks 28th in OPS over the past two weeks. Milwaukee SP Brandon Woodruff has been solid, but Arizona’s offense — fourth in OPS over the past two weeks — can give him trouble.

More MLB best bets for today

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