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With just six games to go, the Diamondbacks have a record of 82-74. While not technically eliminated from post-season contention yet, their playoff hopes would require a spectacular confluence of events in the first half of the week, probably followed by a sweep of the Padres in San Diego next weekend. Obviously, that’s disappointing. But on the other hand, the D-backs have, albeit in a small way, actually done better than what most neutral expectations were for team at the beginning of the year. Let’s start off by reviewing what various parties predicted Arizona would do before Opening Day.

The metrics

• Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): 78.4 wins. Our friends over at Purple Row captured this prediction in their preview of the division. They (and not BP) said, “The D-Backs still have some question marks and might not emerge as one of MLB’s top teams, but they certainly are positioned to push for the playoffs if they see a return to form for Gallen and some improvements to their pitching numbers overall. However, an uptick in pitching could unfortunately pair with a regression in batting, threatening those chances.”
• Fangraphs: 81-81. These came out in late January, once Dan Szymborski had finished running ZIPS for all thirty teams. We’ll get more into those later, as we look at which individuals out- or under-performed their projections. But there isn’t much said about them at the overall level, except for “ZIPS remains unsure of Arizona’s rotation.” However, at the end of spring training, the expected tally was still basically 81-81, with a 31% chance of making the post-season.

The pundits

• George Castillo, ESPN: 81-81. “Will the pitching staff sink Arizona’s playoff chances again? The Diamondbacks can score. Two years ago, they paced the majors in runs scored. Last year, they finished sixth… And yet, the Diamondbacks have not reached the postseason since their surprise run to the World Series in 2023, largely because their pitching staff ranked 27th in ERA in 2024 and 23rd last season.”
• Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: 82-80. “Lovullo has shown an ability to get the most out of his teams, and with Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte and Gerlado Perdomo anchoring his lineup, this is going to be a competitive team. They just have too much working against them in terms of pitching injuries.”
• Gabe Lacques, USA Today: 81-81. “In coming weeks, Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82) corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana will turn 35 and 40, respectively. They’ll need some gulps from the fountain of youth to ensure the bottom of the lineup isn’t an arid wasteland.”
• Ryan Phillips, Sports Illustrated: 77-85. “The Diamondbacks signed several late-career veterans, searching for the magic of 2023. But Arizona’s roster doesn’t look anywhere near pennant-worthy. Manager Torey Lovullo has just two playoff appearances in nine seasons.”
• Fred Zinkle, Yahoo! Sports: 82-80. “This figures to be a retooling year in Arizona, while the organization waits to get Burnes back in 2027. Success this season might look like determining which players, particularly among Del Castillo, Lawlar, Pfaadt, Nelson and Thomas, can be part of the next wave of success. There will also be more trade rumors around Marte in July, and the front office will have to decide whether to recoup a package of prospects or keep Marte in hopes of competing in 2027.”

The group exercises

• Sports books: 79.5 wins. This was more or less the consensus across the board, with the line being drawn here by Caesar’s, Draft Kings and BetMGM.
• Arizona Sports roundtable: 81.8 wins. The radio station polled 14 of their staff, with numbers ranging from 75 to 86 wins. They also asked if the team would make the playoffs, and “No” won that vote, ten of the fourteen polled saying there’d be no post-season.
• AZ SnakePit writers: 84.2 wins. The highest prediction and not unexpectedly, the usual optimism prevailing. This is in line with history over the last couple of years, the 2025 prediction being a (now somewhat embarrassing!) 91.3 wins, and the 2024 prediction also being higher than reality could deliver, at 86.7 wins. And that 2024 figure was before we signed Jordan Montgomery, which seemed like a big deal at the time…
• Fan vote: 84 wins. This answer is based off the median – half above, half below – for SnakePit voters in our poll. The most popular category was actually higher, at 86-88 wins. But that only got 21%, barely edging out the 83-85 win group, at 20%. The “tail” below that was also longer, bringing the median down.

A straight average of the eleven predictions above comes in at 81 wins – an expectation of just one more victory than the previous season. As we head into the final week of the season, the Diamondbacks are already above that. There is even a significant chance of reaching 85 wins, which would be better than any of the 11 pre-season projections mentioned above. Taking two of three in Colorado and one in San Diego would get us there. Get one less, and 84 wins is certainly very plausible. That would only be (very narrowly) surpassed by the SnakePit writers’ poll. But what are the individual contributors to the moderate over-performance?

Winners and losers

When it comes to looking at individual players, we are mostly going off the 2026 ZIPS projections for Arizona. [I had to chase down some players not present on that page, no longer with AZ] As with any projection system, these are expectations, not guarantees. Inevitably, reality will differ, and that’s no mark at all against the effort Dan Szymborski puts in to them. Don’t worry about the playing time numbers, especially for those we didn’t see. Cristofer Torin did not quite make 129 appearances. We’re looking only at the fWAR expected tallies, compared to the actual ones. Those are through Saturday night’s game, although with only about 4% of the schedule remaining, I didn’t bother pro-rating.

Hitters: Over- and under-performers

• Gabriel Moreno 4.9 vs. 3.3
• Nolan Arenado 2.7 vs. 1.9
• ———
• Carlos Santana 0.6 vs. -0.5
• Ketel Marte 2.3 vs 4.3
• Lourdes Gurriel 1.3 vs. -1.0

I’ve not listed on either side, players like Jordan Lawlar, whose playing time didn’t come close to the ZIPS figure, for reasons beyond their control. Though technically, Santana and Gurriel’s didn’t either. So yes, I am being very arbitrary about this. No question who the team’s MVP has been, and I’m sure Mike Hazen is regretting not being able to ink Moreno to a long-term contract last winter. The asking price will now be considerably higher, and a significant arbitration bump will be coming down Gaby Lane next year (lockout permitting). Arenado has also been everything we could have wanted, and more.

On the downside, hopes that Santana might be able to play a competent first-base proved wildly optimistic, and the team didn’t really have a Plan B. That’s why we have Ildemaro Vargas getting more at-bats at 1B than anyone else. This was a mistake by Hazen. The discovery Gurriel was now well below replacement level in left was also unpleasant, and Max Kepler wasn’t the answer either. Then there’s the whole Marte situation. Be very interesting to see what happens there over the winter, because if the sharp drop-off in production was not a blip, those four remaining guaranteed years might not be a lot of fun.

Pitchers: Over- and under-performers

• Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.1 vs. 1.5
• Michael Soroka: 2.5 vs. 0.9
• Juan Morillo: 1.5 vs. -0.1
• Brandyn Garcia: 1.3 vs. 0.0
• ———
• Zac Gallen: -0.1 vs. 1.8
• Merrill Kelly: -0.2 vs. 1.9
• Corbin Burnes: 0.0 vs. 2.6

Very much a rotation of two halves. ERod and Soroka have both performed much better than expected, while Gallen and Kelly have been sore disappointments. We should have let Zac just walk, and the lack of suitors for his services in 2026 turned out to be the reddest of red flags. Kelly will be around next year, and there is hope in that he has been better of late. Small sample-size, but over the four games since the spat with the Cubs, where he may have discovered he was pitch-tipping, Merrill has a 2.86 ERA and 3.55 FIP. Anything like those figures in the remaining year of his contract will be a huge improvement. But Burnes’ extremely belated arrival might have hurt most of all.

Previous years have seen mocking of Mike Hazen for his dumpster diving approach to building a bullpen. But it has worked very well. Discounting Gallen, the eight other current members of the bullpen are earning a total of less than $13 million this year. That’s several million less than the Dodgers are paying Edwin Diaz alone this year, for 15.2 innings of work and a 10.34 ERA. Morillo, Garcia and Jonathan Loaisiga have thrown 171.2 combined innings for an ERA of 2.15. That has been worth a total of 3.9 fWAR, while the trio are getting paid only about $3 million between them. After years of quiet desperation, this bullpen has been quite the refreshing change.

Conclusions

Projections are always going to be wrong. If you look at the Fangraphs totals, there are some big misses: most notably under-estimating the Padres, and over-estimating the Mets. But five of the six teams at the top of the NL will indeed (almost certainly, I guess I should caveat) be among the six teams representing the league in the post-season. While it’s obviously disappointing again not to be in the playoffs, I think it’s encouraging to see the team surpassing expectations. The sharp improvement in the pitching, especially the bullpen, is hopefully something which can be sustained. Get some improved offense and if there is a 2027 season, I expect the D-backs again to be playing meaningful baseball into September.

So it all comes down to this? After the Yankees dropped the last two games of their series against the Diamondbacks in the desert, the math is at least simple for the Yankees in their last-ditch Hail Mary: win all four games to flip the season series with the Rays to 7–6 in their favor, shrinking the division deficit to two games and securing the tiebreaker. Should such a miracle occur, then each team’s final series of the regular season comes into play (Phillies for the Rays, Orioles for the Yanks). Anything less than a sweep, and the Rays will celebrate clinching the AL East on the Yankee Stadium infield.

Both offenses come in having played pretty well over their last 10 games. Even with Aaron Judge not doing much and then returning to the IL, the Yankees have averaged 5.4 runs per game, while the Rays have averaged 5.7 over that span. This series, much like the whole year, will of course not feature the Yankees’ captain. With postseason baseball right around the corner, there are no longer places to hide or excuses to be made.

After the offday for both clubs today, the bullpens will come in ready to handle the doubleheader on Tuesday and the following two games. The Rays have three standouts ready to roll in Bryan Baker, who has a major-league-leading 40 saves while posting a 1.49 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Right behind him, Kevin Kelly has made 68 appearances, tossing 72.0 innings while maintaining a 0.90 WHIP and a solid 2.49 ERA. Meanwhile, left-hander Cam Booser has provided 38.1 innings with an outstanding 42:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.78 WHIP on the year. Now let’s dive into the starting pitching matchups.

Tuesday, Game 1: Carlos Rodón vs. Nick Martinez (1:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees will send Rodón out for game one of the doubleheader. Rodón has fully settled into his normal rhythm of ugly, but quality starts. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start all year long, though elbow inflammation cost him about seven weeks. Across 15 starts, he has delivered a sharp 2.95 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 76.1 innings, limiting opponents to a .178 batting average. Over his last three outings, Rodón has showcased his usual grind, allowing a total of just four earned runs over 17.1 innings while racking up 20 strikeouts.

Martinez takes the hill for the Rays to counter Rodón. The righty has quietly had a phenomenal campaign for Tampa Bay. Spanning 29 starts, he has an impressive 15-4 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 171.1 innings of work, all while walking only 24 batters all season. The journeyman was an All-Star for the first time in 2026 and won his most recent start on September 16th, throwing an efficient 72 pitches over five innings against the A’s. Martinez has given up five earned runs over his last three turns through the rotation and has been pulled with varying lower-pitch counts each time. Martinez’s primary weapon is a high-spin changeup that completely neutralizes left-handed bats.

Tuesday, Game 2: Max Fried vs. Drew Rasmussen (7:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees hand the ball to another veteran lefty in Fried for the nightcap of the twin bill. Despite managing his workload (and bone bruise) carefully down the stretch to stay completely fresh for October, Fried’s “full”-season body of work has been spectacular. In 19 starts this season, he has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP, racking up 100 strikeouts over 106 frames while holding opponents to a meager .198 average. In his last two starts, Fried struggled against the Rockies (only allowing a run on one hit but needing 80 pitches to record 10 outs) before rebounding in Minnesota, going seven strong innings of one-run ball on September 15th.

Tampa Bay counters with their top guy in the right-handed Rasmussen to finish out the doubleheader. The 31-year-old has put together a great season for the Rays and is the most likely candidate to start Game 1 of a playoff series for them, logging a 15-5 record over 29 starts and a 2.72 ERA, a 0.925 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. Rasmussen is coming off a good performance against the A’s, firing five scoreless innings before being lifted with a comfortable 6-0 lead. Over his last three starts, he has surrendered just two earned runs in 19.0 innings. Rasmussen attacks hitters with a dose of high-velocity cutters and hard-sweeping sliders.

Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Ian Seymour* (7:05 p.m. ET)

The mid-week spotlight features the Cole train hoping to find the rails he and Scranton have both abandoned of late. On the year, Cole has a 9-9 record with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts across 121.1 innings. Cole has been a bit volatile in his last three outings. He was tagged for five runs by the Mets on September 12th and four runs by the Padres on September 6th, but bounced back in his most recent start on September 18th in Arizona, firing six innings of four-hit, two-run ball with six strikeouts. Although Cole coughed up a combined seven long balls to the Mets and Padres, he at least kept the D-backs to one shot by Corbin Carroll. Aaron Boone has said that the old ace will get a playoff start, so it’s vital that he keeps the homers in check in his regular-season finale.

The Rays haven’t officially announced their Wednesday starter yet, but the next man in the rotation after Rasmussen is Seymour, and he would be on normal rest. The lefty from Madison, Connecticut has compiled a 9-7 record with a 4.38 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. Over his last three starts, he struck out 10 in a six-inning performance against Houston on September 12th, but was touched up for four runs by Boston on September 18th and three runs by Texas on September 6th. Seymour leads with a low-90s four-seam fastball that plays up due to a unique extension and arm slot, paired with a good changeup and a sweeping slider.

Thursday: Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta* (7:05 p.m. ET)

Schlittler has gone from a rising young fan favorite to the runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Over a sample size of 32 starts, Schlittler has thrown 190.2 innings and posted a stellar 1.94 ERA (ranking second in MLB) alongside a 0.91 WHIP (third in MLB) and 234 strikeouts against an unfair .184 opponent batting average. Schlittler has not given up more than a single earned run in a start since August 3rd. Here is to hoping Schlittler has another few amazing starts left in store for us in 2026. What a season! This will be his final tune-up before the playoffs.

The Rays are on track to wrap up the series by sending the veteran right-hander Peralta to the hill to counter Schlittler. Since coming over to the Rays at the 2026 Trade Deadline following a regrettable short stint with the Mets, he is throwing his changeup more and is showing a change in arm angle. On the year, he has a 9-11 record, a 4.56 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 158 innings. In his last three outings, he allowed one run over 5.2 innings against Boston on September 19th, spun five scoreless against Houston on September 13th, and gave up just four hits and a run over six innings in Atlanta on September 8th. That computes for a superb 1.08 ERA over his last 16.2 innings. Nicknamed “Fastball Freddy,” Peralta features a delivery that makes his mid-90s four-seam fastball almost pop into view for hitters. He relies heavily on that fastball, pairing it with a sweeping slider and that aforementioned fading changeup.

*Starter not yet finalized

Today Minor League Baseball has announced their post-season Double-A All Stars for each league, and one Atlanta Braves prospect was named to the team for the Southern League. That would be Brett Sears, who took one of the four starting pitcher spots, to be named just the second Clingstones player in history to be named to the team – as the team only started play for the 2025 season.

Sears made 17 appearances, including 15 starts, for Columbus totaling 94.2 innings. He pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 113 strikeouts and 22 walks. Sears allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings with the Clingstones, holding batters to a .228 average with a .282 OBP and .373 slugging percentage – a .655 OPS against him on the year. He also made five good starts to date with Gwinnett and one rehab start in the FCL after missing about a month of action in May.

Sears was a seventh round pick out of the University of Nebraska back in 2024 and this strong season was the follow up to his 2025 that saw him debut in Low-A and rocket up the system to reach Triple-A in his first professional season.

Three other Braves prospects had a case for the team, but fell short due to either competition for the spots or not enough playing time in Columbus. The biggest snub would be third baseman Jordan Groshans and his .932 OPS, who was left off the team because of the presence of Andrew Fischer (1.026 OPS). Catcher Adam Zebrowski (.932 OPS) and first baseman/DH David McCabe (.962 OPS) had a case as well, but both were under 240 plate appearances in Double-A this year.

We come to the last week of the season, and the Twins have officially been eliminated from playoff contention and will not be able to finish the season with a winning record. On the bright side, Walker Jenkins figured out major league pitching! The Twins wrap up the season with a series in San Francisco and finish at home against the Rangers. If you want something to root for, the Twins are tied for third with the Tigers, so maybe we can root for being right in the middle of the division.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• While this season has (maybe) not gone as expected, at least we’re not the 2016 team, as Zach Koenig reminds us.
• We’ve seen one week of Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Aidan O’Brien writes about why he has the makings of a star.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• It’s been an up-and-down year for Bailey Ober, but Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune looks at whether there’s still a place for a sub-90 pitcher in today’s MLB.
• Aaron Gleeman analyzes five breakout prospects from the 2026 season.
• Matthew Taylor at Twins Daily dives into two bullpen arms, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk, and their prospects for 2027.
• Aaron Sabato will finally have an opportunity to play in the majors after getting promoted for the final week of the season.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Yankees and the Red Sox joined the Rays as teams to clinch their spot in the playoffs. Due to a quirk in MLB playoff format, only one of these teams is going to make it to the ALCS. The Rays have not exactly clinched the #1 spot in the AL, but with seven games left in the season, they only need to win two of those games to finish in the top spot. The Guardians and White Sox are battling it out for the AL Central lead, after another classic September charge from the Guardians to go from a distant second in the division to now having the lead. However, neither team has clinched a playoff spot, as the Blue Jays, Astros, and Orioles still have an outside chance for the final wild-card spot. In the AL West, the Rangers hold a slim 1.0-game lead over the Astros, so it’s still anyone’s game there.
• In the NL, the Dodgers and Braves have joined the Brewers as division champs, while the Cubs, Padres, and Phillies are all virtual locks to make it to the wild card round. Only the Diamondbacks can take a spot, but it’s going to be tough, as they are four games behind the Phillies for the last spot.
• Boston started out the season 10-17, with the playoffs a distant hope. Tim Keown at ESPN looks at how the team pulled itself together and could potentially finish with the third-best record in the American League.
• While it might seem that the season is all but over, Brent Maguire at MLB.com looks at the top nine things at stake in the final week.

Each year, the Phillies select a position player and a pitcher from their minor league system that they believe to have had the best year in their organization. This year’s winners are probably easy to identify.

The @Phillies have named Alex McFarlane and Bryan Rincon as the recipients of the 2026 Paul Owens Award, presented annually to the organization's top minor league pitcher and hitter! pic.twitter.com/G2mC5oTobQ

— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) September 21, 2026

McFarlane has been making a name for himself of late at the major league level, but it’s important to know how well he was doing in the minor leagues. He struck out over 12 hitters per nine innings, showing his stuff was still quite good even as he climbed the minor league ladder (even if his control was a bit sketchy at times), posting a 1.83 ERA across 36 minor league innings.

Rincon was arguably the biggest breakout the team had offensively. His .267/.410/.517 line with 27 home runs and 67 RBI was eye opening, his added 30 steals less so as he’s always had the speed. His finally getting some consistent playing time with no real major injuries happening was huge for his development as a hitter, changing his trajectory with the organization. He has a real chance at cracking a roster as utility player in the near future, maybe even as a starter if he can continue these improvements he has made this season.

Congrats to both players.

The Texas Rangers enter the final week of the 2026 regular season in first place in the American League West with a 78-78 record, one game up on the Houston Astros.

One week ago today, we talked about how the 2026 Rangers were in almost exactly the same spot the 2025 Rangers were in 365 days earlier. Fangraphs had the Rangers with a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.

Three days ago, we talked about how, with nine games left in the regular season, the Rangers were still in the mix after taking two of three against the Red Sox. Fangraphs gave the Rangers a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.

Things have changed quickly over the past week, and in particular, over the weekend. Texas took two of three over the Toronto Blue Jays, who were one of the teams the Rangers were fighting for a playoff spot three days ago. The Astros, meanwhile, got swept at home by the Atlanta Braves, with former Rangers Tyler Mahle and Martin Perez starting two of the games for Atlanta and throwing a combined 10.1 innings with just two runs allowed. We appreciate the hard work, fellas.

Cleveland and Chicago, who are battling for both the American League Central crown and the third Wild Card spot, had strong weekend series as well. Cleveland swept the Swingin’ A’s at home, moving to 81-75 on the year, while the White Sox took two of the final three games of their four games series at home against Detroit, going to 80-76 on the season.

The success of Cleveland and the White Sox have pretty much eliminated the Wild Card as a path to the playoffs for the Rangers. The Rays have almost sewed up the American League East, and the Yankees (89-66) and the Red Sox (84-72) have largely sewn up the top two Wild Card seeds. Fangraphs gives all three of those teams a 100% chance of making the playoffs, even though the Red Sox haven’t technically mathematically clinched a postseason spot yet.

The third Wild Card spot is currently held by the White Sox, who are two games ahead of the Rangers, though they have the tiebreaker over Texas, making it effectively a three game lead. For the Rangers to claim the third Wild Card spot, they would have to be three games better than either the White Sox or the Guardians over the final six games, while losing at least one more game than the Astros. That’s mathematically possible, but not likely.

Fangraphs’ playoff odds gives the Guardians a 62.8% chance of winning the division and a 34.9% chance of earning a Wild Card berth, while the ChiSox are at 37.2% and 58.7%, respectively. Fangraphs has the winner of the Central having a 97.1% chance of earning a first round bye, so both teams have something to play for, since the division winner gets a few days to rest and arrange their pitching staff while the second place team will spend Tuesday, Wednesday and (if necessary) Thursday of next week playing in Arlington or Houston to advance to the Divisional Series.

We said Friday morning that whoever lost the Rangers/Jays series would likely be in need of a miracle to make the postseason. That’s where the Jays find themselves now, at 77-79, three games back of White Sox for the third Wild Card spot, and tied with the Astros. The Jays lost their season series to the ChiSox, split their season series with the Astros, and won their series against the Guardians, so Toronto needs to have a great final week and hope that either Chicago or the Guardians collapse.

Currently, Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. The only American League teams not eliminated that have lower odds are the Orioles and Mariners, each at 0.1%.

So, long tail/black swan outcomes notwithstanding, the Rangers’ task for the final week of the season is straightforward. Win more games than the Astros in the final week, and Texas wins the division and most likely hosts the Guardians or White Sox next week. Win fewer games that the Astros in the final week, and Texas almost certainly is sitting at home wondering what if.

Among the A.L. contenders, the Orioles and Jays start a three game series on Monday, and are off on Thursday before their final three games on Friday through Sunday. Every other A.L. contender is off today and then plays six in a row through the end of the season.

The Rangers have a three game series against the Mets at home on Tuesday and Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon, then go to Minnesota for games Friday night and Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The Astros play Tuesday and Wednesday evening in Seattle, Thursday, Friday and Saturday night in Sacramento, and then Sunday afternoon in Sacramento. The night games are West Coast night games, so all the Rangers’ games will be in the late innings or over when Houston plays this week except on Sunday, when every plays at the same time.

The Mets have lefty Sean Manaea (4.74 ERA/4.54 FIP in 17 starts and 14 relief appearances this year) going on Tuesday, righty Nolan McLean (3.18 ERA/3.65 FIP in 30 starts) on Wednesday, and rookie lefty Zac Thornton (3.40 ERA/4.50 FIP in 14 starts) on Thursday. McLean is the most difficult matchup for the Rangers — he has a 2.62 ERA in 65.1 innings over 11 starts in the second half, and has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just twice since the beginning of July. This is also the most innings he’s pitched in a season in his career, and the Mets may be cautious in regards to how far they push him in what would be his final appearance of the year.

The Rangers have TBD as their starters for the Mets series. My guess is that the plan is to have Nathan Eovaldi start Tuesday. That would set him up to pitch the season finale on regular rest, health allowing, and the Rangers also will have a full, rested pen after Monday’s off day if Eovaldi is limited to 70 or so pitches, having not thrown more than 46 in an appearance since being activated. My guess is that some combination of MacKenzie Gore and Kumar Rocker go Wednesday and Thursday — with Eovaldi potentially limited as far as how deep into the game he can go, the Wednesday starter may be whichever of the pair they think can go the longest. For most of the season, Gore has been able to eat innings, even if he’s not effective, but he has gone 4 innings or less in four of his last five starts and is battling the shoulder/back spasms that shelved him early in his last outing. Rocker has gone five or fewer in seven or his last eight outings, and is well past the most innings he’s ever pitched in his career.

(UPDATE — The Rangers have now announced that MacKenzie Gore will be starting the opener against the Mets on Tuesday.)

The Twins have TBDs as their starters for the Rangers series. Lefty Zebby Matthews is pitching in the series opener against the Giants today, and so would seem likely to start either Saturday or Sunday. Righthander Taj Bradley is going Tuesday against San Francisco, and could make the start on Sunday, but if he does, it would likely be a short outing, as he’s already passed his major league career highs in starts (31 after Tuesday’s start) and innings (172.1 before Tuesday’s start). Joe Ryan made his last start on Saturday, which would put him on schedule to start Friday against the Rangers. Righthander Dean Kremer (4.97 ERA/4.86 FIP in 16 starts this year), acquired from the Orioles at the deadline, started for Minnesota on Sunday and would seem likely to start Saturday.

As for the Rangers, if Jacob deGrom goes on regular rest, he’d start the opener in Minnesota on Friday. If the Rangers opt to give him an extra day of rest due to his groin, he could go Saturday, but that would mean that if the Rangers make the playoffs and play in the Wild Card Round, he’d go on regular rest in a potential Game Three, which is only played if the first two games are split. That means its possible the Rangers would lose the first two games without deGrom going at all, opening the organization up to second-guessing.

If Eovaldi is able to go on Tuesday without problems, then he would presumably start on Sunday if the game matters. If the Rangers are out of the playoff race by Sunday, there’s no reason to push him, and if the Rangers have already clinched by Sunday, you’d save Eovaldi to go on Tuesday in Game One of the Wild Card Series.

With Cal Quantrill on the injured list, the big question for the Rangers is who would start in on Friday or Saturday in Minnesota — whichever game deGrom doesn’t start. Cody Bradford would seem to be the best choice for the other game, with Jordan Montgomery available for length behind him. However, the Rangers could slot Bradford into one of the two games against the Mets, and push back Rocker or Gore. That would especially make sense if Gore needs additional recovery time.

The good news as far as the bullpen goes is that Peyton Gray appears likely to be activated for the Mets’ series, after throwing a bullpen over the weekend. Gray would likely replace Winston Santos, who was brought up when Quantrill went on the injured list. Gray was a 7th/8th inning guy for Skip Schumaker before going on the i.l., and given the state of the rest of the pen, would likely be put right back into that mix.

The Rangers could also churn some of the low-leverage arms in the pen as needed — Ben Peoples is eligible to be recalled on Wednesday, and Gavin Collyer can be recalled at any point, so if Adam Macko, for example, gets used for a couple of innings and they want a fresh arm, one of them could be pulled up and Macko sent down. The Rangers could also, I believe, send down Cody Bradford, who has options, if and when he makes his next start or lengthy appearance out of the pen, and bring up Peoples or Collyer, or purchase the contract of a Joe Ross or a John King just to have an arm to feed to the wolves in the pen, if needed.

The Astros have Cristian Javier going up against Logan Gilbert on Tuesday, followed by TBD against George Kirby. The Astros went with Ethan Pecko as their bulk guy last week after Javier’s start, then Peter Lambert. I would think they would have Lambert come back on regular rest against Kirby in Seattle on Wednesday, but that remains to be seen. Regardless, those pitching matchups have to be encouraging for us Rangers fans.

The A’s/Astros series is TBD for all four games currently. If Lambert goes on Wednesday, that would mean Hayden Wesneski would likely go in the opener in Sacramento, and Javier in the finale. The good news for the Rangers is that Hunter Brown — easily the Astros’ best starter this year — pitched on Sunday, so while he will be starting either Friday or Saturday in Sacramento, he’ll only be going in one game, and won’t be facing Seattle.

Man, I’m nervous. And excited. And nervous. This is exciting stuff.

And at the end of the day, if the Rangers win out, they get in. Let’s send positive vibes into the universe for that to happen, and then we don’t have to worry about all the rest of this.

Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman has returned to Chicago a day after being hit in the face by a foul ball while standing in front of the on-deck circle during a road game against the Cincinnati Reds.

Bregman shared that information — as well as a photo that appears to show that his left eye remains swollen shut — Monday morning on his Instagram Stories.

“Back in Chicago,” wrote Bregman, who also appeared to have a cut and bruising near his left cheekbone where the ball off teammate Michael Busch’s bat made contact during the fourth inning of the Cubs’ 9-1 victory.

Read more:Is it still a rivalry? Dodgers complete sweep of woeful Giants

It was the second photo and update posted by Bregman since the gruesome injury occurred. On Sunday evening, the three-time All Star shared a photo that appeared to have been taken in the team’s clubhouse. In addition to his eye being swollen shut and cheek cut, Bregman also has gauze inserted in his left nostril, where some bleeding had occurred.

“Thanks for the messages yall,” Bregman wrote. “I’ll be back.”

Before the incident occurred, Bregman hit a run-scoring single in the first inning and walked and eventually scored in the third. He was standing several feet in front of the on-deck circle when Busch fouled off a pitch by Cincinnati’s Luis Mey on a checked swing.

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Bregman lost his bat but maintained his footing as the ball struck him. He covered his face with his left hand and was able to jog toward the Cubs dugout, where a trainer helped him down the steps and into the clubhouse. The 11-year veteran was taken to a hospital for testing.

“It’s a terrible, terrible accident,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said after the game. “We hope he’s OK.”

Bregman is batting .262 with 26 home runs and 89 RBIs in his first season with the Cubs. He is probably best known to Los Angeles fans as a member of the Houston Astros team that defeated the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series and were later found by MLB to have illegally used technology to steal signs during that season. Bregman and the Astros also won the 2022 World Series.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

On August 22nd, during a divisional game between the Yankees and Blue Jays the YES Network invited to the booth a special guest: the retired slugger Cecil Fielder. Fielder had history with both franchises—he debuted as a member of the Blue Jays, and then later in his career came aboard with the Yankees after becoming a star, helping them win a championship in 1996.

Despite a brief detour in which he expressed befuddlement with modern hitting, Fielder’s conversation with Michael Kay and former teammate Paul O’Neill was ultimately a pleasant one. He spoke reverently about the 1996 team he helped bring to championship glory. “I didn’t have to do much; I just had to fit in,” he said. “All I had to do was come here and just play, and that’s what we did. We just went out, and if we play today we win today.”

Cecil Grant Fielder
Born: September 21, 1963 (Los Angeles, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1996-97

Fielder grew up in La Puente, outside Los Angeles, and was so dominant an athlete during his youth that opposing parents continually accused his parents, Edson and Tina Fielder, of faking Cecil’s age. A three-sport star at Nogales High School, he enjoyed basketball more than football and baseball but chose to pursue baseball because he didn’t think his bulky frame would allow him to succeed at the point guard position he played. Concerns about his size, though, would follow him throughout the early portions of his budding baseball career.

After the Orioles took a flyer on him out of high school, Fielder played at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas—but only for one season. His college coach wanted him to lose a whopping 50 pounds; he quit the program two games into his sophomore year. Shortly afterward, in June of 1982, the Royals selected him in the supplemental draft—but they too had their doubts about Fielder long-term. In 1983 Kansas City traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for veteran outfielder Leon Roberts.

Fielder made his MLB debut in the second half of 1985, the Jays’ first playoff season after a slow build. Over the next four seasons, he flashed the tantalizing power he was already known for, but couldn’t establish himself as a regular on a Toronto team which was perennially gunning for the World Series. So, Cecil went to Japan.

With Hanshin in 1989, Fielder overcame a sluggish start to become a fan favorite, wowing crowds with his prodigious pop. He hit 38 home runs and slugged .628 in his lone NPB season, earning some interest from a few MLB clubs. The Tigers brought him aboard on a two-year, $3 million pact, and were immediately rewarded, as Fielder tore the cover off the ball in a legendary 1990 season, once even demolishing a Dave Stewart pitch out of Tiger Stadium entirely. That was the kind of power that the man they called “Big Daddy” brought to the plate. His grand finale came in the Bronx.

On October 3rd, Fielder made history by hitting his 50th home run of the season off the Yankees’ Steve Adkins in the second inning. It had been nearly three full decades since an American League player last reached the 50-homer mark (and 13 years since George Foster for the Reds). Fielder pulled it off in his first season as a true big-league starter. He went on to hit his 51st homer of the season off Alan Mills in the top of the eighth. At this point, his pursuit of history was the only compelling storyline; Detroit and New York both finished well out of the playoff picture.

The next season, the Tigers improved substantially, and Fielder clobbered another 44 homers, but it was not enough to carry them to the playoffs—they finished tied for second in a crowded AL East, seven back of Toronto. That was as close as they’d come to the postseason while Fielder was under their employ—and by 1996, Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson was gone and the Tigers were back in the basement. Indeed, it was the middle of a nearly two-decade stretch of no playoff baseball in Detroit until 2006. Well on their way to 109 losses, they shopped Fielder, who had a season and a half remaining on his deal.

The Yankees, leading comfortably in the AL East, were an obvious fit. They would be willing to take on Fielder’s big salary (he was the highest-earning player in the league in 1996), and the offense lacked a true power threat from the right side of the plate. To that point, no one had hit more homers in the ’90s than Cecil, surpassing even Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Ken Griffey Jr. So on July 31st, they got their guy, sending Rubén Sierra—who Joe Torre wanted out of the clubhouse anyway—and preseason 12th-overall Baseball America prospect Matt Drews the other way in the deal.

Fielder’s production in pinstripes in the back half of the regular season was essentially consistent to what he did in Motown. He posted a 109 OPS+ before the trade, and a 108 after the trade. He socked 13 dingers to get to 39 on the season, and typically sat between O’Neill and Tino Martinez in the order. Despite Fielder’s quality play, the Yanks oddly scuffled to a 13-17 record in August before rebounding with a 16-11 September to clinch the AL East, their first division title in 15 years.

In the Yankees’ ensuing postseason run, Fielder made an immediate impact, hitting a home run in a 12-inning Game 2 win over Texas in the Bronx to even the ALDS. He added two more hits and RBI in Game 4 as the Bombers punched their ticket to the ALCS against the division rival Orioles.

Fielder provided quality over quantity in that five-game set. While he only grabbed three hits against Baltimore, one was a two-run homer against Mike Mussina in Game 2 which gave the Yankees some valuable insurance runs in a 5-2 victory. Then in the decisive Game 5, Fielder’s three-run jack was the first of back-to-back jacks with fellow powerhouse Darryl Strawberry.

It was easy to wonder whether that effort might be for naught when the Yankees fell behind the Braves two games to none to start the World Series as the series shifted to Atlanta. But the Bombers rallied heroically, first when David Cone outdueled Tom Glavine in a 5-3 win in Game 3, then when they overcame a 6-0 deficit to win Game 4 8-6 in extra innings. Fielder got the rally started with a two-run single to put the Yankees on the board. With no DH for the games at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, Torre had been tasked with a tough decision of whether to play Fielder or Martinez at first base. With Tino slumping, Torre had gone with Fielder; it was the right call.

With the series tied back up, it was Fielder’s RBI double off an otherwise-pristine John Smoltz in the fourth inning of Game 5 which provided the only run of the entire night—the Yankees pitching, led by Andy Pettitte, shut down the Braves and allowed New York to take control of the Fall Classic once and for all.

Fielder grabbed one last knock in Game 6, his ninth of the series, as the Yankees won 3-2 to clinch their 23rd championship.

Fielder stuck around in 1997, and remained a regular in the lineup until a thumb injury sidelined him in mid-July. He returned a few months later in time for the end of the regular season, but saw a reduced role in the playoffs. He only appeared in two games in the Division Series and picked up one hit as the Yankees bowed out to Cleveland. Fielder’s power had declined—across the full year, he only managed to hit 13 homers, the same number he had hit after the trade the previous season. His slugging percentage was .410, the lowest he’d posted in a full season to that point.

The Yankees, retooling their lineup with the additions of Chuck Knoblauch, Scott Brosius, and Chili Davis, let Fielder walk in free agency at year’s end. He signed with the Angels, and put together a solid first half near his hometown before struggling mightily after the All-Star Break. In August, the Angels released him—undeterred, he quickly joined up with Cleveland for one last opportunity to reach the postseason. But his steep decline continued there, and the AL Central champs cut bait after 14 games. Unable to catch on with Toronto the following spring, Fielder retired in 1999 with 319 career home runs: the exact total his son Prince would rack up in his own terrific career.

Cecil’s retirement was far from easy—he and Prince were estranged for a time and a purported gambling habit led to the collapse of his marriage. But by the time he joined the YES booth this August, he had repaired his relationship with Prince, remarried, and was able to reminisce about the good times with O’Neill, with whom he captured championship glory 30 years ago.

Happy birthday, Cecil.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.