When Marvin Bagley III came to Dallas from in the trade that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards as the 2025-26 NBA Trade Deadline approached, he represented pure salary cap relief.
He was a letdown second overall draft pick who came off the books when the season was over. He was a key part of the Mavericks’ ticket to getting off Davis’ albatross of a contract for its remaining two years. He was an underachiever who had been done no favors with the talent surrounding him in his seven-plus NBA seasons.
The reaction to Bagley’s arrival in Dallas was a resounding “meh,” and rightly so.
But what if there’s something there? Bagley showed a budding talent for stretching the floor and the ability to finish on the break and execute at the dunker position in his 22 games with the Mavericks. He also showed off a budding 3-point stroke, shooting 48.5% from beyond the arc on his final 33 attempts. The Mavericks’ broadcast crew repeated the talking point that the coaching staff was encouraging Bagley to shoot more from the outside after he arrived. All the while, Daniel Gafford, his mate in the Mavericks’ frontcourt, was a man in the throes of full-on decline throughout Dallas’ season in the wilderness.
It all adds up to Bagley being an interesting name as the NBA offseason approaches.
Season in review
After averaging 10.1 points and 3.1 rebounds per game with the Wizards for 38 games to start the year, Bagley increased his production to 11.0 points and 4.4 rebounds after being traded to the Mavericks. Modest gains, to be sure, but he turned some heads in his first few games with the team and throughout the rest of the season with his knack for knocking down timely 3-pointers.
Bagley has been good from the outside for stretches at a time during his eight years in the league. When he got to Washington for the last part of the 2023-34 season, he shot 8-of-17 from deep in his first 24 games with the lowly Wizards. He was shooting just over 42% from 3-point land in the first 38 games of 2025-26, albeit on fewer attempts per game than he saw once he arrived in Dallas.
It’s at least plausible to view his stunted development as a byproduct of being on bad teams for the entirety of his career. Dallas, as currently constructed, is no world beater, mind you, but what if this situation is a better fit for Bagley, and what if he could take the next step with Dallas on what should be an affordable next contract?
Bagley played 24 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in his first game in a Mavericks uniform, in a 138-125 loss at the San Antonio Spurs on Feb. 7. Three games later, it was 15 and 13 in 24 minutes during a 122-111 loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two games after that, Bagley scored 22 on 10-of-13 shooting in a 123-114 win at the Brooklyn Nets.
It’s hard to know what to make of these kinds of performances during the NBA Silly Season of February-April. But Bagley was a spark off the bench, where Gafford, hampered by various injuries including nagging ankle issues throughout the year, was largely a bump on a log.
Bagley wrapped up the season by scoring 20 or more points in three of four games as his minutes increased when March turned to April. He didn’t turn the ball over when it came to him, and on a team that finished the year 18th in the NBA in turnovers per game (14.5), that’s a point in his favor, too. He recorded more than two turnovers only once in his 22 games with the Mavericks to finish the year.
Best game
Bagley’s best performance for the Mavericks came as part of that four-game stretch late in the season against another Western Conference playoff contender. He poured in 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field, including 3-for-5 from 3-point range and pulled down nine boards in 27 minutes in a 100-93 win at the Portland Trail Blazers on March 27. The opponent matters here because Portland still had hopes of securing the seven-seed in the west at the time with the dreaded play-in games looming. This was not a bottom-feeder with nothing to play for. As he showed earlier in the year in games at San Antonio and Minnesota, Bagley is up to the task against better than average competition.
He made three 3-pointers again three games later in a 112-107 loss at the Phoenix Suns. Bagley shot a collective 31-of-43 from the field in that four-game span. If he can be an efficient scorer playing with an effectively empty guard room running with him, is there even another step up he can make with better guards on the roster?
Contract status
Bagley is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. Retaining him after a few raised eyebrows to close out the 2025-26 season is by no means guaranteed. He made just over $3 million last year on his previous one-year deal. Even after showing improvement, he’s a guy you could get for under $10 million per year on another one- or two-year deal this offseason.
Looking ahead
Bagley’s potential return to the Mavericks may seem like a no-brainer, but with Dereck Lively II coming back after missing most of the year with swelling in his foot and with Gafford’s 3-year, $54-million contract extension kicking in next year, the Mavs may find it easier to chalk up Bagley’s improvement to Silly Season shenanigans and let him walk in free agency.
You want versatile bigs on your roster, though, and with the injury-prone Lively and a guy Luka Dončić made look a lot better than he may actually be in Gafford as the only two big ahead of Bagley in the Dallas pecking order, it may pay dividends to kick the tires on a guy like Bagley.
If a 15-point-per-game guy is hiding somewhere under all Bagley’s unmet expectations, why not try to be the team that solves the riddle of his first eight years in the league?
