Yesterday, Paul Toboni finally made a move in the rotation. Bringing in Miles Mikolas on a one-year $2.25 million deal is not exactly what fans were dreaming of, but it is a move. With Mikolas highly likely to be in the rotation, I wanted to take a look at what the Nats pitching staff could look like entering 2026.

RHP Miles Mikolas and the Nationals are reportedly in agreement on a contract. pic.twitter.com/OvTHDDCkR8

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 11, 2026

While the rotation is full of uncertainty, I do think there are three locks. Those are free agent signings Foster Griffin and Miles Mikolas. The other is Cade Cavalli, who is the highest upside arm on the team. It will be an open competition for the last two spots. I think Jake Irvin will take one of them, but after how he performed last season, he is not a lock.

Brad Lord is an interesting case. He had an impressive rookie season last year, but was more effective in a relief role. In his 19 starts, Lord posted a 4.99 ERA. For 2025 Nats standards, that is not awful, but it is still not good. However, in his 29 relief outings, Lord posted a 2.79 ERA. With Lord’s increased velocity in the ‘pen and his limited pitch mix, a bullpen role could be a better fit. Still, Lord may be one of the five best guys for the Nats in the rotation.

The Nats are short on proven commodities, but they have plenty of options. Guys like Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez and even waiver claim Ken Waldichuk could get a shot to compete for rotation spots. The quality may not be great, but the Nats have more bodies than they have had in the past.

Projecting the arms who could make up the Nationals' rotation in 2026:

Cade Cavalli
Brad Lord
Miles Mikolas
Josiah Gray
Jake Irvin

Also receiving votes:
Foster Griffin
Mitchell Parker
Ken Waldichuk
Andrew Alvarez
Riley Cornelio

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) February 11, 2026

Gray is an interesting case as well. He has missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery. However, he made the All-Star game and posted a sub-4 ERA the last time he pitched a full season in 2023. Even in that season though, we saw Gray’s flaws and that sub-4 ERA was pretty lucky based on the underlying numbers. If his stuff looks good this spring, he should get a spot in the rotation though.

There are also a couple of guys on the mend that could play a role later this season. The Nats have already placed Trevor Williams and DJ Herz on the 60-day IL. This is not much of a surprise, as both are recovering from elbow surgeries. 

Herz is a guy I am particularly intrigued by though. He was super promising in 2024, and was a popular breakout candidate for 2025. However, he looked bad in Spring Training last year and then it was revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery. If Herz can come back and be the guy he was in 2024, he will be a massive piece of the Nats rotation.

Herz does have some command concerns, so there is a chance the Nats just decide to let him rip in the bullpen. Luis Perales is in a similar boat, but he is further removed from his Tommy John. He should start the season in the Minors, but could play a role, either in the rotation or the bullpen.

The biggest X-factor in the Nats rotation though is Cade Cavalli. On paper, Cavalli will be the Nats ace. He showed major promise down the stretch last season. His stuff looked very sharp, and his fastball averaged 97. 

Cade Cavalli first major league win comes against the Phillies

pic.twitter.com/R2uDIfgmtm

— Kev (@klwoodjr) August 16, 2025

Manager Blake Butera has already praised Cavalli’s mound presence. For the first time in a while, Cavalli will be entering a season with no health restrictions. He is ready to rock and roll. The 2020 first round pick is finally going to be able to be a part of the rotation on a full time basis. 

I also think he is going to really be helped by the Nats new pitching philosophy. He has the stuff, but his execution and sequencing could use some work. Hopefully, new pitching coach Simon Mathews can help him out with that.

For the guys who do not make the rotation, they could still make an impact as long relief options. Paul Toboni and Blake Butera do not seem married to the idea of having a set five man rotation where the goal is for these guys to go at least five innings every time. That philosophy could make the roles of Mitchell Parker or Andrew Alvarez important.

Alvarez showed some nice things down the stretch. He does not have amazing stuff, but he has a deep mix and can throw any pitch in any count. Alvarez also has a strong feel for spin and executes well. He is a guy who can fool lineups for one or two turns, but does not have the stuff to face hitters a third time. The Nats new regime will have a use for a guy like that.

There are still more questions than answers on this Nats pitching staff, but the pickup of Mikolas does provide some clarity. The Nats now have a guy they will be confident in to take the ball every fifth day and give them some length. I also wonder if the Mikolas pickup makes Irvin a bit redundant. Last year, he was the innings eater with not great stuff. If he comes out throwing 90-92 MPH again this spring, he could be in trouble.

There is competition all across this roster. For a team that is not very good, I like that. If we can find one or two unexpected breakout guys who could be a part of the next good Nats team, that would be a win. Also, so much can change between now and even the start of the season. Buckle up ladies and gentleman, because baseball is here.

Spring training is around the corner, and we've already got projected win totals for all 30 teams.

It's a simple market. If you think a team is projected for too many wins, take the Under. If you're more bullish on, say, the Cincinnati Reds than the books are, hammer the Over.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team projected to win more than 100 games, at 102.5. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies are on the low end of the spectrum, with a projected total of 52.5.

No team won more than the Milwaukee Brewers' 97 last season, while the Rockies indeed came in Under even this year's rock-bottom total with just 43 victories. The Brewers' total is set at 84.5 after trading ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets.

Here’s our initial look at the MLB odds for projected wins in the 2026 regular season.

2026 National League win total odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Popular MLB futures markets

• MLB World Series odds
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2026 American League win total odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning fewer than 92 games instead of winning 92+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

• OVER 91.5 wins (-105)
• UNDER 91.5 wins (-115)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

MLB teams from across the country have descended on Arizona and Florida to open their Spring Training camps for the 2026 season. Those camps will have a very different look them than most years because players from the MLB teams will leave to join teams representing their countries for the World Baseball Classic. While the level of competition and premier matchups like Mike Trout versus Shohei Ohtani gets fans excited to watch the games there is always an uneasy feeling until the players return to their MLB clubs. This feeling is caused by knowing an injury that could end a player’s season could happen, and if it did, it could derail the season for an MLB team. Gaslamp Ball asked its readers how they feel about Padres players competing in the WBC.

Padres News:

• Since the Padres started Spring Training, they have been watching free agent targets sign with other teams. Justin Verlander signed with the Detroit Tigers and Chris Bassitt signed with the Baltimore Orioles. There have been rumors San Diego is interested in signing Zac Gallen, but the price may be too high. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball thinks the Padres should look at a reunion with Ty France.
• In his scrum with members of the media on Wednesday, Padres manager Craig Stammen stated the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are open for competition. He admitted that Randy Vasquez has the inside track on the No. 4 starter spot, but nothing is set yet outside of Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Michael King.
• There was speculation at the start of the offseason that Mason Miller might return to the rotation. That speculation was dismissed when the Padres announced he would not move from the bullpen. It was assumed then that Miller would be the closer. In the event Padres fans dreamed of a Miller start at some point this season, it was made clear Wednesday that Miller is the closer.
• Sung-Mun Song was one of the key free agent acquisitions for the Padres this offseason and he has already suffered his first injury. Song suffered a rib injury and will miss some time in Spring Training but should be back for the regular season. Song will be playing various roles throughout the season according to Stammen.
• Bryan Hoeing returns to the mound for the 2026 season after missing significant time with injury during the 2025 season. He told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune “it was not a fun year.” Hoeing will compete for one  of very few spots in the Padres bullpen, but has potential to be a starter should the Padres want to explore that as an option.

Baseball News:

• New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor had hamate surgery, and the Mets are optimistic he will be able to return by Opening Day.
• Free agent reliever Liam Hendriks and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a minor league deal.
• Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll underwent hamate surgery and will miss the World Baseball Classic.
• The Milwaukee Brewers brought back a familiar face when they agreed to a one-year deal with Gary Sanchez.
• Free agent pitcher Chris Bassitt and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a one-year, $18.5 million deal, Wednesday.

Tyler Callihan was playing the best baseball of his career in early 2025. After reaching AAA Louisville for a cameo at the end of 2024 (and raking during it), he began 2025 at the highest level of the minors and picked up right where he’d left off.

He mashed to the tune of .303/.410/.528 across 106 PA, showing the gap power and patience at the plate that have been his calling cards (when healthy) all through his pro career to date. That earned him a call-up to the Cincinnati Reds, one that went awry almost immediately when he dove for a ball in the outfield corner and broke his arm in two to nine places, ending his season.

Several surgeries later, Callihan is reportedly back in action and ready to compete again for a spot on the Reds roster, and will do so in 2025 in his age-26 season after being drafted by the Reds all the way back in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB Draft.

He’s the #18 prospect in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, earning that honor after dominating the vote in a busy, crowded ballot.

In the last week, we talked about platoon splits for the various Astros position players, but platoon splits are only part of the equation. One of the more fascinating parts of sabermetrics is looking at how our conception of the game has changed over the years. If you watched the movie “Moneyball” you probably heard him utter, “his fielding does not matter.” That was an even bigger theme in the book. The entire message was that when teams make lineup decisions placing more value on defense than offense then they were doing it wrong.

I am ashamed to say I said something similar in one of my first books. I’d have to go back and look at how I said it exactly, but it pretty much echoed what Billy Beane had said. Were we idiots? I suppose that is a fair way to think of it, but I would prefer to say we were not informed or simply didn’t have enough data. That particular book was published in 2004. We have learned a ton since then and any team discounting fielding does so at its own peril.

Fielding and hitting are still two very different things and there is not one universal metric that is universally accepted as the go to metric for fielding. We will look at three different sources in this piece, but there are more. Furthermore, we can be sure that each team has their own internal metric that they use. So, what we will see here is not meant to be gospel. In fact, these numbers will demonstrate how evaluating fielding is still very much in the eye of the beholder. This is even for those that use data regularly.

Before we bust out the numbers, I should note that a number of people are familiar with WAR without necessarily understanding its components. A replacement level player is not an average big league player. That is the first misconception. A player with zero WAR would be a typical everyday player in AAA. That is true with hitting and with fielding. A player with zero runs in any particular category is average. Average is better than replacement level. Obviously, how much better depends on the number of innings and the particular formula.

In a 1200 inning season, we could surmise that the replacement level fielder would actually be closer to -10 at a position. Of course, that changes depending on the position. The positions up the middle are worth more than the positions on the corners. There is a ton of math involved and I don’t want to get bogged down in the gory details. What we will do is look at the raw numbers in the first table and then convert those into a 1200 inning season to see what each player’s value would be over a full season.

Actual Numbers

	INN	DRS	OAA	FRV
Yainer Diaz C	990	1	N/A	-3
Christian Walker 1B	1316	-7	2	2
Jose Altuve 2B	499	-8	0	1
Jose Altuve LF	371	-10	-5	-5
Isaac Paredes 3B	766	-4	-3	-2
Carlos Correa 3B	417	-2	2	1
Jeremy Pena SS	1061	5	8	6
Nick Allen IF	1070	12	17	12
Yordan Alvarez LF	116	-1	-1	-1
Jake Meyers CF	844	5	9	8
Cam Smith RF	1079	12	1	0
Jesus Sanchez OF	977	7	-1	0

It should be noted that I did not include Carlos Correa’s innings at shortstop because he is not likely to play shortstop this season. Paredes has innings at third base, but he is likely to play the bulk of his time at first base and/or second base. Sanchez played most of his time in right field, but theoretically could also play some left field. Nick Allen played mostly shortstop, but also logged some innings at second base.

Our three sources for fielding can all be found at fangraphs.com. DRS stands for defensive runs saved. It is the metric from the Fielding Bible and uses video scouting to rate plays and how likely a player was to successfully field it. OAA stands for Outs above average. That and Fielding run value are Statcast numbers which do not rely on humans, so they are more systematic in their methods.

I try not to judge between the three because just the simple act of choosing one over the other introduces bias. It also leaves us open to cherry picking. For instance, I could say I love DRS for Smith and Sanchez, but prefer OAA or FRV for almost everyone else. What we can say is that teams probably gravitate to one of these over the others and without knowing which one we should simply report them all and let the chips fall where they may.

When we convert these to 1200 innings we are creating a math problem. By sheer definition, only eight of these guys could possibly reach 1200 innings and given the balanced nature of the Astros lineup, it is quite possible that none of these guys reach 1200 innings. However, looking at a real estimated run value helps drive home the relative cost or benefit of playing any of these guys for 150 games.

Per 1200 Innings

	DRS	OAA	FRV
Yainer Diaz	1	N/A	-4
Christian Walker	-6	2	2
Jose Altuve 2B	-19	0	-2
Jose Altuve LF	-32	-16	-16
Carlos Correa	-6	6	3
Isaac Paredes	-6	-5	-3
Jeremy Pena	6	9	7
Nick Allen	13	19	13
Yordan Alvarez	-10	-10	-10
Jake Meyers	7	13	11
Cam Smith	13	1	0
Jesus Sanchez	9	-1	0

Like we said, the above mathematically can’t happen. However, we show this to show what would happen if Joe Espada simply plugged in eight guys into the same positions for 150 games. That would mean choosing between second base and left field for Altuve. As you can see, neither is an appealing option. This is why we will likely see a ton of mixing and matching.

Managers must synthesize this information along with the platoon splits to cobble a lineup together on a daily basis. Additionally, they have to consider load management, whether hitters are hot and cold, and what they have done individually against that day’s pitcher. It’s a lot to consider and it is important for us to keep that in mind the next time we want to crush Joe Espada for one of his managerial decisions.

Nick Allen wasn’t an Astro last year, but he and Mauricio Dubon are similar as fielders. It should be noted that when you total the number of runs together for the actual production we get +9 for DRS, +25 for OAA, and +17 for FRV. Effectively, that means that pitchers were a collective one to three wins better with this fielding team behind them than an average fielding team. If we added the 1200 inning totals together we get -31 for DRS, +17 OAA, and -1 for FRV.

Those numbers are obviously inflated since those amount of innings are not available, but it does show that simply putting the best hitters in the lineup and closing your eyes will create an inferior fielding alignment. The question is what is the effective difference between defensive runs and how that compares with the difference between runs created offensively. That is the whole ballgame.

While the signing of Justin Verlander is certainly exciting and nostalgic all at the same time, let’s talk about how he turned his 2025 season around, and about keeping expectations reasonable. The future Hall of Famer isn’t quite the beast he was even 3-4 years ago. Time catches up with everyone eventually, but Verlander’s willingness to keep experimenting with his approach, along with a good run of health, salvaged his 2025 season with a pretty strong finish.

A year ago things weren’t looking so hot. Back with the Houston Astros after a brief stint with the Mets in 2023, Verlander’s 2024 campaign was marred by a shoulder strain that limited him to 90 1/3 innings, and his 5.48 ERA was easily the worst mark of his career. The San Francisco Giants took a chance on him for the 2025 season, and for a few months, it looked possible that he was in his final season. With pedestrian strikeout and walk rates, another minor injury, and a few too many home runs allowed, Verlander produced a 4.70 in the first half of the season. His slider was still effective and his velocity was intact, but hitters were teeing off on his fastball and curveball to an egregious degree.

Verlander managed to shake off the neck strain in June and July, and as it turned out, he had a few more tricks up his sleeve. Adjustments he started in June were refined over the All-Star break, and he came back out for the second half, cut the home run rate down dramatically, and started collecting more whiffs and weak contact. A 2.99 ERA with a 3.47 FIP after the All-Star break says he figured some things out.

A nice, successful season in Detroit would see Justin Verlander throw 150 innings with a 4.00 ERA. ZIPS projections have him at a 4.24 ERA over 133 1/3 innings. We would celebrate either, but it may take some adjustment to stop expecting more. Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez are tasked with leading the way. The Tigers legend just needs to contribute good outings and hopefully have another mostly healthy season. That would be plenty, and plenty fun to witness as a fan.

We do need to check any wild expectations at the door for now. Tigers fans are used to seeing him in his prime, overpowering hitters and pitching through minor injuries, whereas this season putting him on the injured list for anything minor is the move. Ideally, you’d keep his starts short as well, especially early in the season. If the Tigers can keep Verlander relatively fresh throughout the season while getting Troy Melton, Drew Anderson, or Keider Montero a few starts in his stead, all the better.

Adjusting his delivery and angles

Two adjustments he made in 2025 were pretty straightforward. First, he started taking the ball out of his glove earlier in his delivery. The second adjustment was moving over to the third base side of the rubber. The different angles that created seemed to help his fastball, and he was still able to maintain enough deception out of the glove that hitters weren’t picking up any early visual cues.

Starting his arm motion a little earlier, as opposed to gripping the ball in the glove belt high until well into his leg kick may have helped keep him in rhythm. The late hand-glove separation he’s often used in his career required a quicker move early in his arm path to catch up to his torso and lower half, and perhaps separating a little earlier freed his arm to catch up with the rest of his motion and get into sequence. Pitchers are always tweaking little timing mechanisms, and something about it clicked for him.

It’s also possible that he just got healthier. After some shoulder trouble in 2024, and then a neck strain in 2025 that cost him about a month in May and June, Verlander made every start from June 18 to the rest of the season, and other than getting blown up on a few occasions, was consistently good the rest of the way. Health would also explain why he was able to get back to the higher arm slot he threw from in his best years with the Astros. That alone helped him to get a bit more riding action back on his fourseamer, a few more whiffs, and fewer home run balls launched.

Sweepers and changeups

Verlander has slowly dialed back his fourseamer usage as his velocity has dipped, and a lot of that extra workload has fallen on his slider. Early in 2025 he just didn’t have much else to work with. His trusty curveball was even less effective than the fourseamer in the first half, and right-handers in particular were hitting it harder than ever before. The solution there was to develop a sweeper at 84-85 mph. Much firmer than the curveball, the sweeper still has a lot of depth, but it has a sharper bit of gloveside break, while the curve is usually close to 12-6. All things being equal, it’s better to throw a harder breaking ball. Neither pitch needs to be more than a third offering from him, and by pairing the two, hitters had a harder time squaring either of them.

By season’s end, Verlander was mixing the curveball and the sweeper in equal doses, replacing a third pitch with two solid breaking balls that look similar out of the hand. Neither is a huge swing and miss pitch, but mixing the pair made it harder for hitters to barrel them up.

2025 Splits	ERA	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	FIP
First Half – RHH	5.08	19.6	5.4	1.2	0.317	3.88
First Half – LHH	4.30	20.1	10.1	1.2	0.315	4.57
Second Half – RHH	3.29	20.7	6.9	0.9	0.286	3.74
Second Half – LHH	2.62	22.5	9.3	0.5	0.317	3.14

While the sweeper is an interesting development, another thing that really helped Verlander squash left-handed hitters was using his circle changeup more effectively in the second half. Long-time Tigers fans will remember the early years of his career, when he routinely dropped in a straight 88-90 mph changeup. Back then, it played well mainly because the fourseam fastball was so terrifying. The version he’s started working with in recent years, and used more in the second half of 2025, is more of a classic circle change that moves away from lefties like a sinker.

Verlander threw the changeup about 14 percent of the time to left-handers in 2025, and hitters posted a downright horrendous .237 wOBA against it. He still uses all three breaking balls against lefties too, so it’s no surprise hitters weren’t looking for it often. Verlander doesn’t have a ton of confidence in throwing the changeup in the zone, but breaking out the changeup helped him handle certain hitters. Perhaps he’ll lean into that this season. It will be interesting to see if Chris Fetter and his staff has an impact on the pitch mix, or if it’s just mainly a matter of having more tools to work with so that if one pitch isn’t feeling great, he has other options to turn to in a pinch.

Don’t get too greedy

It’s fairly ridiculous to look back and compare Justin Verlander’s current fastball with its metrics 10 years ago back in 2016. At the time, in a season where the numbers say he should have won the AL Cy Young award, his fourseamer averaged 94 mph with 17.3 inches of induced vertical break. In 2025? He averaged 93.9 mph with the fourseamer, with 18.6 inches of induced vertical break. See? The old guy has really fallen off his game.

It’s interesting that he’s still getting more ride these days than he did with the Tigers in the early Statcast era in 2015-2016. The Tigers really didn’t get that higher arm slot, truer backspin, concept for a while. It took the Astros coaching staff to fully unlock it and maximize his fastball’s effectiveness. In fairness, he also got back to averaging 95+ mph from 2017-2022, along with hitting 19-20 inches of induced vertical break in that era of his career. When your fastball is that good hitters are in huge trouble. In 2022, Justin Verlander had the most valuable fastball in baseball at age 39. This man is not normal.

Verlander doesn’t get the extension down the mound that he used to, which is probably just a product of being less flexible and shortening his stride to compensate. He also isn’t holding as much back for later in a start the way he once did. It’s 92-94mph out of the gate, and then he’ll sit 94 the rest of the way while reaching back for 95-96 in tight spots. His best fastball in 2025 was 98.3 mph, and there were only eight fastballs total at 97 mph or better.

Back in the day, he would throw 92-93 mph early in a start, hoping to rack up quick outs the first time through the order. As he loosened up he’d sit 95-97 mph by the time the top of the order came up a second time, and then reach back for high 90’s and triple digits later in an outing. Verlander still shows signs of trying to do that— yes it would be fascinating to see Tarik Skubal attempt to implement this a little more, I agree—but there just aren’t as many gears available for JV these days.

In terms of secondary factors, the changes from the Giants to the Tigers defense, or from Oracle to Comerica as a home park, don’t look too significant. Verlander pitched to Patrick Bailey a lot last year, and the Giants main backstop is probably the best pitch framer in the game, so this isn’t a case where Dillon Dingler or Jake Rogers are going to give him a boost in that regard. On the other hand, the Tigers graded out a good deal better than the Giants defensively by both DRS and Outs Above Average. No doubt Verlander’s results this year will rest partly on how the his outfielders perform behind him.

The generational raw ability to pitch and drive to be one of the best ever, along with the smarts and willingness to keep making those little adjustments in all phases of the game, from diet, conditioning, pitching mechanics, to approach, have extended Justin Verlander’s career beyond anyone’s wildest dreams other than possibly his own. His legacy was secured long ago. There are already five distinct four-year eras in his career, and in the last one, he still won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring.

We can argue about what “best” means, but Verlander is the most valuable pitcher of this millenium by fWAR, 16th best all-time by fWAR, eighth all time in strikeouts at 3553 and needs just 149 more to pass Bert Blyleven for 5th all-time. He’s already fifth all-time if you count the postseason, and if you think about it, it’s weird that we don’t. In October, the top starting pitchers on playoff teams are making the highest pressure starts of the year while already at the end of their gas tank after a long season. Only Andy Petite has thrown more postseason innings in his career than Justin Verlander. But I digress.

This is the most delightful depth move in franchise history, and we shouldn’t be too greedy about it. If he’s healthy enough to get in a good groove and keep making counter adjustments to hitters, Justin Verlander will give the Tigers decent mid-rotation production, leadership, and perhaps a little extra edge. And it could be really special to watch.

I’m shamelessly stealing from the comments, here.

Unless there’s a move on the rotation side, Bryce Elder will probably begin the year in Atlanta’s rotation. Joey Wentz is out of options, as is Elder. Seems reasonable — unless you’re willing to roll the dice on the Braves going in a very different direction at this point in the offseason.

Anyway, I won’t linger because you get the contours of the question. The FanGraphs Depth Chart assignment has Elder throwing 109 innings as a starter and ten in relief; for Wentz, it’s 18 innings as a starter and 34 in relief. The range of other projection systems features the combination of these two guys going about 110 to 240 innings, though you shouldn’t take the upper end of that range seriously because that’s more of a “how healthy are they?” measure than a depth chart-informed one.

My own sense is that if both guys were given free rein, they’d basically total about 100, on average, before injuries/performance saw their playing time curtailed. But they’re also somewhat competing with one another for innings provided the pitching staff health isn’t entirely a shambles, so I don’t know. 150ish might be reasonable but not exciting; I responded to said comment earlier saying that it felt like placing the over/under at 130 would be great to maximize betting, but with the Braves not signing Chris Bassitt for his fine enough deal with the Orioles, bumping that towards 170 might make more sense — at least for the time being.

A player’s performance in Spring Training is not necessarily a sign of things to come. A strong performance doesn’t always portend a good season, and a poor performance doesn’t mean the season is lost. However, that doesn’t mean that a player can’t change the early narrative for his season in the spring.

There are plenty candidates for who to watch this spring in Phillies camp. Perhaps none bigger than the big three prospects of Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aidan Miller. Crawford and Painter can spark some excitement and give a better idea of how they will fare with the Phillies this season, as both are expected to travel north with the team and be on the Opening Day roster. Miller isn’t expected to be a factor for the MLB team until later in the season, but perhaps a good showing and a hot start to the Triple-A season can force the issue.

There’s no lack of roster mainstays to keep an eye on either. Bryce Harper is coming off of a down season by his standards and perhaps has a bit of a chip on his shoulder thanks to some comments from Dave Dombrowski. Aaron Nola is coming off of a disaster of a season and will be much more important in the middle of a Phillies rotation that will not have Zack Wheeler at least for the first few weeks of the season. Those two players and others will be participating in the World Baseball Classic however, so they will be absent from camp for a couple weeks starting at the end of February.

But that absence means there’s more opportunities for players like Otto Kemp and even free agent signing Adolis Garcia to impress. The team has talked up Kemp at almost every opportunity this offseason and is clearly high on him. He had a mediocre rookie season and apparently suffered a knee injury that was not revealed until after the year. Kemp will be given the first chance to be Brandon Marsh’s platoon partner in left field. Garcia meanwhile figures to be the Phillies everyday right fielder after they finally move on from Nick Castellanos. Can Garcia provide hope that he has rediscovered some of his 2023 form before he likely slots into the middle of the Phillies batting order on Opening Day?

These are just a few of many interesting player storylines to follow this spring. So, which Phillies player will you be watching the closest this spring?

The ZiPS projections are out, and they’re not impressed with the thump — or lack thereof — in the Red Sox lineup. If you visit Fangraphs and sort these individual player projections by home runs, you have to go all the way down to a tie for 127th to find the first name in a Red Sox uniform.

More specifically, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu are each projected to hit 18 home runs and lead a lineup with no clear alpha dog. For comparison, the Yankees have seven different players projected to hit at least 20 home runs in 2026 according to ZiPS.

Meanwhile, the top of the board spanning all of MLB is littered with guys who were just available in free agency and the Red Sox could have signed to fix this problem. This includes Kyle Schwarber (second at 43 home runs), Pete Alonso (fifth at 38 home runs), and Eugenio Suarez (eighth at 35 homes runs). (For anybody wondering, Rafael Devers comes in at a tie for 14th on this list and is projected to hit 30 home runs.)

So now for the real important question: How much does this matter?

Well, if recent history is any indication, quite a bit. Below is a list of the last 25 World Series champions (every team since the turn of the century minus the COVID season in 2020), the hitter who led the team in home runs, and how many they hit.

For the most part, there’s a pretty clear message here: You need at least one guy who can go deep 30 or more times. Not just because of the obvious ability to do damage, but also because having at least one big bopper in the postseason forces the opponent to game plan and pitch around them, which often paves the way for somebody else to make them pay in expensive fashion.

The only exceptions to this rule all came in a tight six year window between 2010 and 2015, when several stars aligned at the end of the steroid era and before the more recent launch angel era. Between these two power obsessed periods, you had one complete exception to everything in the 2015 Kansas City Royals, and a trio of San Francisco Giants teams, which were not only driven by pitching, but also played in about as unfriendly of a hitting environment as you’ll find anywhere in the sport. (Their 2012 team actually ranked dead last in home runs, but that was also Buster Posey’s MVP season, so you can sort of argue this one both ways.)

In other words, either the 2026 Red Sox pitching staff better resemble those early 2010s Giants teams, or somebody better step up internally and hit 30 bombs.

There are a few candidates, including Wilyer Abreu, who hit 18 jacks last year pre All-Star break before battling injuries in the second half, and Trevor Story, who averaged 31 home runs per year in each of his first four seasons, but hasn’t hit the mark since leaving Coors Field. But there’s one candidate who truly has the upside to solve this problem.

Before downplaying things and playfully giving it back to Rob Bradford in this clip from the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast earlier this week, Anthony gives us a pretty serios “that’s the goal” quote. It’s said so matter-of-factly, it’s hard for me to believe Anthony hasn’t been pouring his focus into that all winter.

Now of course, the front office doesn’t want to publicly put that pressure on a 21-year-old kid (even though that’s exactly what they’ve done implicitly with their roster building), so you get quotes like this gem from Craig Breslow yesterday when Alex Speier of the Boston Globe asked him about the aforementioned ZiPS projections.

Uh yeah, as noted, they probably need a guy who can launch 30 home runs, not 20, and for better or worse, Roman Anthony is the guy mostly likely to fill those shoes.

Here’s Lou Merloni on Anthony being in the best shape of his life:

Roman Anthony put on about 15 lbs of muscle and you can see it. To quote one of the great movies of all time "Babies all growns up". And he's only 21. #Monster

— Lou Merloni (@LouMerloni) February 11, 2026

Putting the weight of the world on the shoulders of one of the youngest guys in the league is exactly what you shouldn’t be doing, but that’s precisely where we’re at entering 2026. Roman Anthony is already the best everyday player in Boston, and now the Red Sox need him to be a superstar. Because if he isn’t, they don’t have one in the lineup.