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If it feels like the Cincinnati Reds just got swept by the Milwaukee Brewers a minute ago, you aren’t wrong. That’s what happened in Great American Ball Park at the end of just last week, Milwaukee eeking out a pair of 1-run wins alongside a 2-0 victory in extra innings.

Though the margins between the two teams were slim in those games, the reality is that Milwaukee is light years ahead of the Reds in the standings. 11.5 games, to be exact. The first place Beers have a +120 run differential so far this year that’s second best to only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the entire sport, and they have owned the NL Central by winning 12 of their 17 contests played within the division this year.

The Reds, sporting just a 4-17 record against the Central, enter the four-game series in Milwaukee today with a -51 run differential that’s the second worst in the National League behind only a Colorado Rockies club that barely exists. Maybe the Reds barely exist at this point outside our little corner of the internet – it would be hard to argue otherwise – and this series might well be their last shot to prove that they actually are tangible for the remainder of 2026.

Four games to make a statement. Four games to dig back into the race. Four games, while currently sitting four games under the .500 mark with the All Star break and trade deadline looming.

These are the biggest four games of the Cincinnati Reds season.

Getting the start for the first one will be lefty Nick Lodolo, whom the Reds desperately need to be the vintage version of himself again. He enters with a ghastly 5.59 ERA across 46.2 IP, though he did look hands down the best he’d looked all year in his most recent start before taking a 107 mph comebacker off his left wrist and being forced to exit early. All signs point to his long-term prognosis being just fine, but we’ll have to cross our fingers that there are no lingering issues with it during tonight’s start.

Going for the Beers will be lefty Robert Gasser, and the Reds have juggled their lineup accordingly. The bad news is that despite a lefty on the mound, Eugenio Suarez is not in the starting lineup after being beaned on the hand by the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday. The good news, I suppose, is that he wasn’t placed on the IL, so hopefully it’s just a day to day thing that he’ll get over quickly.

Elly De La Cruz will DH in this one, while the middle infield will feature the red hot Edwin Arroyo at 2B with Matt McLain back in the lineup at short.

Here’s how the Reds will line up to start tonight, which features a first pitch at 7:40 PM ET:

Not much is going right for the Atlanta Braves at the moment as they’re essentially riding on the excellent pace that they set during the first half of the season as they try to navigate this current rough patch. They certainly need some starting pitching help at the moment and while the following news is defintely good news, it’s not anything that’ll help in the immediate near future.

Still, it’s nice to hear that Spencer Schwellenbach is eying a return for this season. Mark Bowman of MLB.com has reported that Schwellenbach could be heading to the Florida Complex League in the near future and that could be the start of Schwellenbach’s path back to Atlanta’s rotation.

I hate to go full Chip Caray on y’all but if Schwellenbach does indeed make it back for this season and hits the ground running, it would, in fact, be like making a trade after the trade deadline. It would also come at a position of need for the Braves, as the uncertainty that surrounded the rotation heading into this season has finally materialized here in the early second half of the season. Chris Sale and Martín Pérez have emerged as the only truly reliable starters at this particular moment with Spencer Strider injured and inconsistent, Bryce Elder crashing back down to earth and the fifth spot being in complete flux as well.

Before Spencer Schwellenbach went under the knife to end his 2025 season, he was a consistent source of production on the mound as he delivered an ERA of 3.09 (73 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.25 (81 FIP-) and his career numbers over two seasons have been solid as well with an ERA of 3.23 (77 ERA-) and a FIP of 3.27 (81 FIP-). It would be wishful thinking to see Schwellenbach make his return a seamless one but it sure would be nice to see and something that the Braves would gladly welcome — no matter what the rotation looks like once Schwellenbach eventually makes his return.

Again, this isn’t anything that’ll move the needle right now (and to be quite honest, the words “could” and “likely” are carrying a lot of weight when it comes to Bowman’s reporting here) but it’s good news for the future. Hopefully things will get to the point in the future where Schwellenbach’s return is a luxury and not a desperate need. We’ll see what happens.

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The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game set tonight, with the struggling Texas bullpen looking to find its form behind opener Tyler Alexander. 

However, with Parker Messick dominating, my Rangers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks are targeting Cleveland to walk away with a victory here. 

Who will win Rangers vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-142)

The Texas Rangers will hand Tyler Alexander the ball tonight, but after working just one inning in each of his last two starts, they'll once again lean heavily on their bullpen. That's a concern, considering Texas' relief corps owns a 5.24 FIP over the last week while allowing a 39.8% hard-hit rate.

The Cleveland Guardians counter with Parker Messick, who has been outstanding lately. The left-hander owns a 2.15 FIP across his last two appearances while striking out 12.63 hitters per nine innings and allowing just 0.66 home runs per nine.

Cleveland holds the clear pitching edge, and I'll play this pick to -150.

COVERS INTEL: This Rangers bullpen has given up 2.57 HR/9 across the last week, compared to just 1.13 overall this season. 

Rangers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-116)

Parker Messick has been excellent lately, but I don't expect him to completely silence Texas. The Rangers are swinging the bat well, carrying a 45.3% hard-hit rate over their last seven games, and should be capable of scratching out a few runs.

Cleveland's offense hasn't produced consistently, with just a 69 wRC+ over the last week, but this is still a favorable pitching matchup after Tyler Alexander exits early. The Guardians don't need an offensive explosion to cash this Over, and a game in the 5-4 range feels well within reach.

I'll play this pick up to -130.

Rangers vs Guardians weather

Conditions at Progressive Field should provide a slight boost to offense tonight. Temperatures around 90 F and warm summer air could help the ball carry a bit better, while light 4.7 mph winds aren't expected to have much impact. Overall, the weather leans modestly toward hitters and supports a few extra scoring opportunities.

Rangers vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Rangers +133 | Guardians -138
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (-163) | Guardians -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-104) | Under 7.5 (-100)

Rangers vs Guardians trend

The Rangers have cashed the Over in 20 of their last 35 games for +5.80 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Guardians.

How to watch Rangers vs Guardians and game info

Rangers vs Guardians latest injuries

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The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners meet tonight, with the dominant George Kirby on the hill. 

Behind the righty, my Angels vs. Mariners predictions eye Seattle to grab a home victory in the series opener. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 29. 

Who will win Angels vs Mariners today: Mariners -1.5 (-103)

The Los Angeles Angels hand Ryan Johnson the ball tonight. He's only made two starts since being recalled, but opponents have still managed a 40.8% hard-hit rate while Johnson has allowed 1.64 home runs per nine innings. That's a dangerous combination against a Seattle Mariners lineup that sees the ball better at home.

George Kirby, meanwhile, has been lights out. Over his last four outings, the right-hander owns a 2.82 FIP while allowing just 0.82 home runs per nine innings. Kirby also sports a solid 3.79 FIP at T-Mobile Park this season.

I'll play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Seattle's offense has compiled a 109 wRC+ at home compared to just 94 on the road.

Angels vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 runs (-103)

While Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable, Seattle's offense hasn't exactly been rolling either, carrying just a .290 wOBA over the last week. That should help keep this total in check, even if the Mariners find some early success against the Angels' starter.

Both bullpens have also been outstanding lately. Los Angeles owns a phenomenal 1.24 FIP across its last 26 1/3 innings, while Seattle's relief corps has posted a 2.33 FIP over the past week. Both units have done an excellent job limiting damage late in games.

I expect Seattle to score enough to win behind George Kirby, but runs could be difficult to come by after the starters exit.

I'll play this to -120.

Angels vs Mariners weather

Conditions at T-Mobile Park should have little impact on tonight's matchup. Temperatures around 70°F with light 8.1 mph winds create a fairly neutral environment, offering minimal assistance to either hitters or pitchers. The game is more likely to be decided by the starting pitching and bullpen matchups than by the weather.

Angels vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Angels +194 | Mariners -203
• Run line: Angels +1.5 (-113) | Mariners -1.5 (+104)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Angels vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in six of their last eight games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Mariners.

How to watch Angels vs Mariners and game info

Angels vs Mariners latest injuries

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The San Diego Padres visit the heavily favored Chicago Cubs (-150) at Wrigley Field to start a three-game set Monday, June 29.

My top Padres vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for the Chicago lineup to pull away and take the series opener tonight.

Who will win Padres vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+129)

The wind is forecast to be blistering out at Wrigley Field, and the Chicago Cubs have paced the majors with 6.6 runs per game during their 12-4 heater while also ranking fourth in wOBA and seventh in xwOBA.

So, with the San Diego Padres sending righty Griffin Canning to the bump tonight, I’m anticipating another big night from the Chicago lineup.

Canning has surrendered a 52.1% hard-hit rate, which is tied for the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with 40 innings.

Of course, the Padres also rank 29th in baseball against left-handed pitchers, so I’m expecting Chicago southpaw Shota Imanaga to hold the San Diego bats in check enough for the Cubs to pull away tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga boasts a high-end 30.3 whiff percentage and 14.5 swinging-striking percentage, which positions him to both keep the San Diego Padres off balance at the plate while paving the way to Chicago covering the run line and keeping the number Under the inflated total.

Padres vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 11.5 (-126)

The wind is forecast to be blistering out at Wrigley Field tonight, so we’re receiving an inflated total. 

In addition to the noted struggles the Padres have had against lefties this season, they also rank 24th in overall xwOBA while averaging just 3.9 runs per game in June. 

Plus, San Diego has played to the Under in 26 of its past 45 road games (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI), and the Padres have only hit the Over in 21 of their last 50 games (-11.10 Units / -20% ROI).

Padres vs Cubs weather

High temperatures reaching 90°F paired with a strong 12-to-16 mph wind blowing straight out to left field will create favorable hitting conditions at Wrigley Field tonight.

Padres vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Padres +130 | Cubs -150
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-145) | Cubs -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 11 (-110) | Under 11(-110)

Padres vs Cubs trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.

How to watch Padres vs Cubs and game info

Padres vs Cubs latest injuries

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The powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers are small -115 favorites over the Athletics in the series opener.

While it's rare to get the Dodgers at such an enticing price, my Dodgers vs. Athletics predictions and MLB picks believe the home team is set up for success Monday night.

Who will win Dodgers vs A's today: Athletics (-105)

Gage Jump has posted a 2.56 xERA or lower in four of six starts, including three in a row.

He should make life difficult on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who surprisingly rank 24th in wOBA and 26th in average vs. lefties since May 1.

Although Eric Lauer has pitched better since being scooped up by the Dodgers, he has benefited from luck. He owns a 2.83 ERA over the last month despite a 5.17 xFIP.

Regression should set in against an Athletics attack sitting first in home wOBA and SLG against lefties.

Back the Athletics to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Gage Jump ranks in the 88th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and xERA.

Dodgers vs A's Over/Under pick: Over 10.5 (-110)

Lauer is sporting a sky-high 51% fly-ball rate and has allowed 2.23 homers per nine innings.  

He profiles as the exact kind of pitcher who will struggle mightily against a powerful Athletics offense in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. 

The Dodgers haven’t fared all that well against lefties of late, but there is no doubt they have the talent to be much better. Jump has also allowed at least three runs in two of three home starts, with a putrid Angels team being the lone exception.

Both offenses should chip in plenty. Bet the Over to -125.

Dodgers vs A's weather

Temperatures in the 90s are expected with slight winds blowing outward. Perfect conditions for the offenses to hit for power.

Dodgers vs A's odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -115 | A's -105
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+135) | A's +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-110) | Under 10.5 (-110)

Dodgers vs A's trend

The Athletics have hit the game total Over in 10 of the last 17 home games (+3.35 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. A's.

How to watch Dodgers vs A's and game info

Dodgers vs A's latest injuries

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The San Diego Padres continued their trend against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, winning Game 1 before dropping the next two. It was an electric first game followed by two depressing contests against L.A. The club’s biggest struggle was its starters. Randy Vásquez and Michael King combined to surrender 11 runs between their two outings.

In hindsight, it’s easy to say that manager Craig Stammen could have pulled both earlier with plenty of the bullpen available. That said, in the moment, both starters have proven they deserve a longer leash, and the Friars should have been able to put together more run support for King in the series finale. The lineup went a measly 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. They’ll need to do much more against the Chicago Cubs before facing the Dodgers again this weekend.

Taking the mound

Shota Imanaga (CHC) v. Griffin Canning (SD)

The left-hander returned to the Cubs despite a song-and-dance routine this offseason that saw him decline a $15 million player option before accepting a qualifying offer from Chicago. He’ll be a free agent at the end of this year but hasn’t done much to boost his stock.

Imanaga owns a 4.40 ERA on the season, continuing to shown signs of regression since his stellar rookie campaign in 2024 (2.91 ERA, 173.1 IP). He struggled in his last outing against the New York Mets, surrendering four runs in 5 1/3 innings, but has a good history against the Friars. The Padres will need to jump on his mistakes to end their current losing streak.

Canning, like most of the Padres’ rotation, has been woefully inconsistent this season. He just had his worst outing yet against the Atlanta Braves, going just 2/3 of an inning while giving up four runs. Hopefully, the right-hander can bounce back from the tough start and deliver San Diego a much-needed win.

It was rumored that Germán Márquez could be a part of the Friars’ pitching plans today, but the club announced he’ll be making another rehab start on Tuesday in El Paso. He’ll likely be activated later this week to replace either Canning or JP Sears.

Batter up!

It’s hard to pinpoint just where the Friars’ offensive switch-up came, but Samad Taylor was certainly a problem. After being a spark plug for the San Diego offense, Taylor would go a dismal 0-for-10 against L.A., with four strikeouts in the series finale alone. That being said, he took his walks (four BBs), but found himself in the first slump of an otherwise incredible start to his Padres tenure.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Samad Taylor, RF
3. Jackson Merrill, CF
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Gavin Sheets, LF
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. Miguel Andujar, DH
8. Ty France, 1B
9. Freddy Fermin, C

Andujar has the most success against Imanaga, albeit in a smaller sample size. In four at-bats against the lefty, he’s gotten two hits including a solo home run for a 2.000 OPS. The slugger has been mired in a slump since breaking out in early May and has struggled to get out of it. Perhaps tonight will be the night.

Relief corps

Thankfully, King was able to make it through four solid innings of work before reaching trouble in the fifth. He tried to pitch through it but couldn’t, with the Padres calling on Yuki Matsui to get him out of the jam. He recorded two strikeouts and pitched the sixth inning as well. Jason Adam twirled a one-hit seventh before Wandy Peralta finished out the game with two perfect innings.

That saves the Friars’ ‘pen for tonight’s series opener. If the Padres can manage to put together some runs against Imanaga, the ‘pen will have no shortage of arms to turn to. Kyle Hart, Ron Marinaccio, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan will each be available for San Diego.