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The Seattle Mariners welcome the San Diego Padres to T-Mobile Park tonight for the beginning of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. 

I'm targeting San Diego to grab their fourth straight win against Seattle in my Padres vs. Mariners predictions, with Randy Vasquez on the hill for the visitors. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 15. 

Who will win Padres vs Mariners today: Padres moneyline (+120)

The San Diego Padres are starting to turn things around, currently sitting in second place in the National League West. They've compiled a 12-8 record on the road this season, and the Padres swept the Seattle Mariners last month at Petco Park. 

Randy Vasquez pitched in that series, and while he gave up four earned runs in only four frames, the righty has been a mile better away from Petco. Vasquez owns a 1.93 ERA on the road compared to a 3.86 ERA at home. He's only allowed three earned runs across his last two road outings.

Emerson Hancock, meanwhile, gets the ball for Seattle, and he allowed five earned runs last time out against the Chicago White Sox. Hancock gave up only two earned to the Padres last month, but he's surrendered seven earned across his previous three home outings. 

COVERS INTEL: Seattle has lost four of their last six games at T-Mobile Park.

Padres vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 runs (-130)

When these two teams met in April, it was a very low-scoring series. Two of the three games cashed the Under, with just one contest going over seven runs scored combined. Considering the pitching matchup tonight, there is value again in that same play. 

Vasquez continues to show his best when on the road, and he owns a 3.05 ERA overall. Although Hancock can get hit around at times this season, he still has a 3.21 ERA, and the right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once in 2026, and that was in his most recent outing. 

Also, we're looking at two very average offenses. The Padres are 24th in runs scored and 30th in average. The Mariners aren't much better, ranking 18th in runs and 24th in team average. Plus, both bullpens are relatively solid. Seattle's pen owns a 3.53 ERA, while San Diego's relievers have compiled an elite 3.03 ERA. 

It won't be a high-scoring series opener at T-Mobile Park. 

Padres vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +122 | Seattle -127
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-130)

Padres vs Mariners trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.

How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info

Padres vs Mariners latest injuries

Padres vs Mariners weather

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The Mookie Betts trade shook the baseball world. A century after dealing away a superstar who helped them win a World Series, the Boston Red Sox did it again. Worse, it seemed as though they didn’t get nearly as much in return as they probably could have for Betts, at that time a four-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, three-time Silver Slugger, and 2018 American League MVP.

Since then, Betts has gone on to four more All-Star Game appearances and won four more Silver Sluggers, two more Gold Gloves, finished second in National League MVP voting twice, and, most importantly, won three more World Series to add on top of the one he won with Boston in 2018. However, while Betts has continued to pursue a place in Cooperstown (and likely already made enough of a case to be in the Hall of Fame), Alex Verdugo has slowly been pushed out of the major leagues. And in that frame came a brief stint with the Yankees.

Alexander Brady Verdugo
Born: May 15, 1996 (Tucson, AZ)
Yankees Tenure: 2024

Verdugo attended Sahuaro High School in Tucson, where he was drafted in the second round by the Dodgers in 2014. He hit only three home runs in his senior year, but he batted .532 and was a left-handed pitcher for his varsity squad, posting a 2.19 ERA. And after being selected, Verdugo decided to sign with LA rather than play college baseball at Arizona State University, where he had previously committed.

Over the course of three seasons in the minor leagues, Verdugo lit everything up, showcasing why he was considered such an elite prospect. In 2015 alone, he received multiple awards and honors from the Rookie ball Arizona League and was eventually promoted to High-A, hitting .385 in 23 games with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the California League. He hit for the cycle in that span as well and was eventually named the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year.

In 2016, Verdugo began the season with the Tulsa Drillers in Double-A. He made the All-Star team and also played for Mexico’s team in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, as his father Joe is originally from Hermosillo, a city in the northwestern part of the country, which made him eligible. Verdugo was then promoted to Triple-A, where he once again showed his prowess at the plate for the Oklahoma City Dodgers, batting .314 over the season, was named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star team, and was selected to represent the Dodgers at the MLB Futures Game.

Verdugo was promoted on September 1, 2017, and played his first game at the ripe age of 21 against the Padres, going hitless with a walk. He would play 14 more games for the Dodgers before his season ended, as he did not perform well enough in the short span to make the playoff roster.

The young Arizonan played more games for the Dodgers in 2018, but he spent most of his time in Triple-A, where he continued to develop. Overall, he played 37 games in a Dodgers uniform that season, slashing .260/.329/.377, a much-improved mark on all accounts, especially in the batting average category, where he was almost 100 points higher in a larger sample size.

Verdugo officially made the Opening Day roster for Los Angeles at 23 years old, and, once again, saw a jump in production as his playing time jumped as well. He only played 106 games due to an oblique injury (that would also keep him out of the postseason). He played 100 games for the first time in his career, and registered 101 hits in the 106 games he played with 44 RBIs and 49 strikeouts. Verdugo’s 113 OPS+ was more than enough to make him look to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward, but, as we know, a trade would eventually happen that would change the trajectory of his career.

On February 10, 2020, the Dodgers and Red Sox made the trade official. Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs, and catcher Connor Wong headed to Boston in exchange for Betts, left-handed pitcher David Price, and cash considerations. Although the names they received weren’t chopped liver at the time, the Red Sox seemingly placed a higher priority on moving Betts’ and Price’s contracts than getting the absolute best possible prospects.

With the 2020 season being cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic, everyone had to adjust. There were no bodies in the stands, only cardboard cutouts and fake noise pumped in from the sound systems. And in 53 of the 60 games that were played that season by the Red Sox, Verdugo was excellent, batting over .300 for a forgettable Boston team that finished 24-36. But with the Dodgers going on to win the World Series and the Fenway faithful still recovering from the scars of the Betts trade, there were, of course, some hard feelings.

Verdugo continued to produce in a Red Sox uniform, though, despite all of the outside noise. He wasn’t Betts, but he was enough to respectably fill an outfield spot both at the plate and in the field. He had some signature postseason moments for the Sox, too, including a three-RBI game against the Yankees in the 2021 AL Wild Card that was brought to life by a two-run single in the seventh inning that pretty much sealed the game. All of this occurred after he brought the fourth run of the game home for the Red Sox as well.

Verdugo played hero plenty of times in that postseason, specifically, saying to the media:

“I’m not nervous at all. I live for this. It’s still baseball, you know what I mean? The surroundings and fans and the noise outside of it are a lot different, with how much media is on the field before the games and all that, but for me — I just play my game. Baseball is baseball, and let’s not make it more complicated than that.”

Although Boston fell in the ALCS to Houston and missed the next two Octobers, tthe lefty outfielder became a staple on the Fenway grass over the next couple of seasons. In 2022 and 2023, he slashed a combined .272/.326/.413 with an OPS+ of 101, 24 home runs, and 128 RBIs in 294 games. However, 2023 would be the last time he donned a Red Sox uniform, as he was traded to the Yankees on December 5, 2023, as general manager Brian Cashman looked to fill a need both on defense and as a left-handed bat in an almost-strictly right-handed lineup.

However, the plan backfired. The outlook and potential versatility for the Yankees were exciting. And, of course, Yankees fans were thrilled when Verdugo hit a home run on the first pitch he saw back at Fenway following the trade.

Over the course of the season though, Verdugo dealt with lots of ups and downs. He began the season extremely slow at the plate, saying after the season in a quasi-post mortem that he was far too aggressive than he would’ve liked to be, and that he got away from his game. And not only that, but he also had continued issues developing with his hands. He was experiencing skin issues and pain in his hands, a problem that had been continuous since the 2021 season, and that led him to receive an allergy test over the All-Star break. The results showed that he had an allergy to materials in his gloves.

All in all, Verdugo still played in 149 games for the Yankees and slashed .233/.291/.356, and the Yankees were able to make the World Series against Betts and the Dodgers. His defense was good (as Octoberproved), but expectations were higher than an 84 OPS+, especially since he had at least had a league-average bat for Boston in his final two seasons at Fenway. Ultimately, Betts came out on top again, and Verdugo’s performance over the year wasn’t remotely enough to move the needle. It didn’t help that he made the last out of the season too, striking out against Walker Buehler to end the Game 5 collapse in the Bronx. Verdugo entered free agency shortly afterward, and there was little interest in a reunion from the fanbase.

Verdugo ended up joining the Braves in March 2025, where he was sent to Triple-A to get in shape after missing spring training due to his late signing. He would ultimately play 56 games for the Braves before being designated for assignment and released. Verdugo did at least register an impressive four-hit night in his debut, which helped the Braves defeat the Twins 4-3.

After being released, Verdugo was signed to a minor league deal by the San Diego Padres but was eventually released before requiring a season-ending surgery. In fact, that news just broke two days ago. This is unfortunate timing for Verdugo just before turning 30, but that is where the birthday lad’s baseball story ends — for now, anyway.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Atlanta Braves hope to keep rolling on Friday night when they open a three-game set with the Boston Red Sox.

The Braves have won four of their last five, and their pitching staff has allowed just nine runs in the last five games.

My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 15 explain why Spencer Strider will keep that trend going.

Who will win Red Sox vs Braves today: Braves (-147)

Spencer Strider overcame a rocky first start back with a dominant performance against the Dodgers last week.

One noticeable change since his return is an increased usage of his curveball, which has induced an eye-popping 81% whiff rate.

The Boston Red Sox have the 10th-highest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest ISO of any club the past two weeks. They’ve also scored just six runs in four games.

Connelly Early has an ERA that is 1.53 runs below expected. He ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate and faces an Atlanta offense ranked seventh in SLG at home vs LHP this year.

COVERS INTEL:Boston’s lineup is making poor contact, posting the second-highest ground ball rate (49.3% ) and pull rate (47%) in the majors over the past two weeks.

Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves are still hitting the ball well of late, but the run production is down.

Having the seventh-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest walk rate the past two weeks probably doesn’t help.

That’s a main driver behind a run of seven Unders in the last eight games for Atlanta, but it’s not the main reason I’m backing that trend to continue.

Boston’s been baseball’s worst team the past week at bringing in runs, posting a .136 BABIP and a .000 ISO with RISP. That’s led to an abysmal 57 wRC+.

That’s why I’m backing Boston’s seventh straight game under the number.

Red Sox vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Boston +138 | Atlanta -144
• Run line: Boston +1.5 (-150) | Atlanta -1.5 (+138)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Red Sox vs Braves trend

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.

How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info

Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries

Red Sox vs Braves weather

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In an exclusive interview with Federal Baseball, new President of Business Operations Jason Sinnarajah talked about a wide range of issues, including the decline in attendance, beer prices and a potential stadium reboot. Sinnarajah took his new role at the beginning of the year and has his hands full. However, he is working tirelessly to regain the trust of a weary fanbase.

One thing he spoke about that struck me was when he hinted at changes to the stadium itself. I asked Sinnarajah, what do you think will be different about the ballpark experience in like 2 to 3 years once you really make your mark here? In his answer he said, “Without speaking to it too much directly because we are working with our friends in local government to make it happen, but I think the ballpark itself will go through what I would call a tuneup or a change. It is a 19 year old ballpark, and there are areas that need to be refreshed. It needs to be modernized in some areas, our premium areas need to be better, our concession experience needs to be better, our connection to Half Street and the community could be better. People are going to walk in here in a few years and see an experience they can be really proud of”.

This was a newsworthy, and somewhat surprising quote. A so-called ballpark tuneup had not been on my radar, but it is a good idea. As Sinnarajah mentioned, the ballpark is not that new anymore. It is crazy to think about, but Nationals Park is 19 years old now. That is around the time when you see some of these ballparks have a bit of a facelift.

I think Nationals Park could use some refreshing. It is not a bad ballpark, but it is known as one of the more bland stadiums. In a USA Today piece ranking stadiums, they wrote, “It’s a solid, newer stadium. It has amenities but lacks overall character”. Jason Sinnarajah is well aware of that reputation, and is looking to change it. He is still early in his tenure, but he has ambitious goals.

Another thing Sinnarajah is aware of is the Nationals reputation for having some of the most expensive beer in the league. When you go on the internet, you see graphics that list the Nats as having the most expensive beer. So, I asked him what steps the organization has made on the affordability side of things.

Sinnarajah told me that he sees those graphics when he is surfing the internet. However, he told me, “I understand there are people that think we still have beer at $15.75 only. That is not true, we launched $8.99 16 ounce cans of Budweiser and Bud light. Sometimes there are these old habits and hearsay. Like I have been saying since Spring Training, I cannot speak to what happened here before and all the challenges we have had, but what we can do is listen to our fans and hope they come to the ballpark with an open mind. Hopefully they like the experience, and if they don’t we want to hear the feedback so we can get better”.

The Nats are taking steps in the right direction, but sometimes it can take time for those positive changes to translate into results. You can see that in the attendance numbers. On average, about 4,000 fewer fans showed up to the first 16 Nats home games compared to last year. That is the biggest attendance drop in baseball. A lot of that can be attributed to rebuild fatigue, but the ballpark experience plays a role too.

I asked Sinnarajah about these attendance problems. As you would expect from someone in his position, he was well aware of the issues, telling me, “I have obviously noticed that our attendance is down compared to prior years. I go back to the core principles of what we are trying to do. We are trying to listen to our fans, make sure they are being heard, listen and take fan feedback and adjust. We are aware of the attendance, but we feel like we need to continue taking a data driven approach and listen to our fans. We have seen improvements in the Voice of the Consumer metrics, we have seen positive feedback. I hear it from fans”. 

Sinnarajah also acknowledged that the ballpark experience is not where they want it to be yet, though he pointed out it is getting a little bit better with every game. He told me that, “If we can improve every game and every homestand, then we are doing a good job. On the attendance piece, there are all sorts of factors that go into that. What we are doing is we are trying to provide as good of an experience as we can when we come in. The attendance this weekend should be large, so we are excited”. 

Clearly, this is still a work in progress. Just like Paul Toboni did when he took over the baseball side of things, Jason Sinnarajah knew he had to refresh an already existing rebuild. It will be exciting to see the baseball and business side of the team hopefully take off and find their footing at the same time. Both sides of the operation are rebuilding, and I think they have good people in place now.

Sinnarajah came to the Nats after three years with the Royals. When he was with the Royals, the team ranked second in the Voice of the Consumer metric. He helped bring Joe’s BBQ to the ballpark and helped freshen up the ballpark experience at Kauffman Stadium. Sinnarajah hopes to have a similar impact here in DC. 

Another ambitious project that Sinnarajah is trying to pull off is to bring more female fans to the stadium. That is something he did in his previous role in Kansas City that he wants to bring here. Sinnarajah told me, “I believe we need to connect with female fans, especially young ladies. When we played Miami this weekend, they had a Barbie promotion. I have seen a Hello Kitty one. Things that bring people who don’t necessarily watch baseball everyday to the ballpark and try the product. To connect with that demographic would be really cool and we are having those conversations”.

This weekend’s series against the O’s is a time where Sinnarajah and his team can prove themselves. They have several promotions, including a fun hot dog hat and an Alexander Ovechkin bobblehead. Jason Sinnarajah has a lot of big ideas, and this weekend he will show fans what he has got. Hopefully the team can do some winning because that is the biggest key to a good ballpark experience.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous days recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (19-23) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Biggio solo home run. They got another run in the 6th inning on a Biggio RBI single. Gordon got the start and was solid allowing 2 runs over 5.2 innings with 7 strikeouts. VanWey allowed 2 runs in relief as Tacoma took the lead. Biggio added a sac fly in the 8th inning but that was it as Sugar Land fell 4-3.

Note: Alexander has a .899 OPS this season.

• CJ Alexander, LF: 1-for-2, 2 R, 3 BB, SB
• Carlos Perez, 1B: 1-for-4, BB
• Cavan Biggio, DH: 2-for-3, R, HR, 3 RBI

• Colton Gordon, LHP: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (16-20) lost 6-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the second inning on a Guillemette RBI single. Hicks got the start and went 4 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned. The pen allowed 3 more runs as the Sod Poodles extended their lead. The offense was unable to score the rest of the way as the Hooks fell 6-1.

Note: Bush has a .802 OPS this season.

• Will Bush, C: 1-for-4, 2B
• Garret Guillemette, 1B: 1-for-3, RBI

• James Hicks, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (8-28) lost 18-4 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board on a Schiavone solo home run in the first inning. In the third inning, Schiavone added another home run, this time a three run shot. Hertzler got the start and allowed 1 run over 4.2 innings, with another run scored after he was pulled. The bullpen really struggled allowing 16 runs as Asheville found themselves down 18-4. The offense was unable to score again as Asheville dropped the game last night.

Note: Hertzler has a 2.95 ERA this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-5, R, 2B
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-3, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB
• Kyle Walker, 3B: 1-for-4

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
• Raimy Rodriguez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• Nate Wohlgemuth, RHP: 2.0 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Keduar Trujillo, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (15-21) won 6-3 (BOX SCORE) 

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 6th inning scoring 2 runs on a wild pitch and a groundout. The offense added another run in the 7th on a Huezo RBI single. In the 8th inning, the Woodpeckers got some insurance on a Vasquez RBI single, Newman RBI double and Forrester RBI single. Perez started for the Woodpeckers and was phenomenal tossing 8 scoreless innings while striking out 7. He only threw 67 pitches. Rosario came on for the 9th and allowed 3 runs but held on for the 6-3 win.

Note: Perez has a 2.15 ERA this season.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB
• Nehomar Ochoa, 1B: 1-for-4, R, SB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-4, R, BB
• DJ Newman, LF: 1-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• German Ramirez, 3B: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB, SB
• Brandon Forrester, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI

• Javier Perez, RHP: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K (WIN)
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ethan Pecko – 9:05 CT

CC: Nic Swanson – 7:05 CT

AV: Parker Smith – 5:35 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

Through four starts, the back of the baseball card numbers look like Zack Wheeler’s numbers. His 2.55 ERA, 2.70 FIP and .193 batting average allowed all rank among the best numbers he’s ever put up.

But he’s getting there in a much different way than he has in the past.

Coming off his thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last year, Wheeler has yet to recover his typical fastball velocity thus far, averaging 94.7 mph on that pitch. That’s down from 96.1 mph a season ago, and about 1 mph lower than the upper 95s he featured from 2022-24.

Perhaps not coincidentally, he’s seen a drop in his strikeout rate too, which sits at 23.2%, well below last year’s 33.3%. He’s simply not able to throw the ball by hitters in the zone right now.

The good news is, he’s not trying to.

Instead, Wheeler has exchanged strikeouts for groundouts, and at a pretty incredible clip. He’s generated a ground ball rate of 48.5%, his highest since 2021. Last year, his ground ball rate was 39.9%. It is one of the reasons he has been so efficient with his pitches this season.

Instead, Wheeler is turning more to his secondary pitches, throwing his fastball 34% of the time in his first four outings, down from 41% in each of the previous two seasons. With six pitches at his disposal, he’s been able to mix things up and keep hitters off balance (numbers from Baseball Savant).

• Fastball: 34%
• Sinker: 19%
• Sweeper: 14%
• Splitter: 13%
• Cutter: 10%
• Curveball: 9%

Without his usual velocity, Wheeler has amped up some of the movement on his pitches, too, specifically, the horizontal movement on his sinker and sweeper.

The top line is his sinker, which has slowly increased in horizontal movement since 2023. His sweeper, a pitch he first started using in ‘23, has seen a dramatic increase in it’s horizontal movement. Both pitches are generating 18 inches of horizontal run.

Folks, that’s a lot.

Those pitches are sweeping through and out of the zone in a way that has allowed Wheeler to remain in the 90th percentile in chase rate in MLB.

So while his fastball velocity, whiff rate and strikeout rate are all middle-of-the-pack right now, there are other areas in which Wheeler is excelling.

Is this a profile that will allow Wheeler to have this kind of success all season? His xERA of 3.51 and xFIP of 3.37 indicate there will likely be some regression. But even if Wheeler’s actual ERA ends up being around 3.50, it should still be seen as a solid contribution for a team that doesn’t require him to be the Cy Young candidate he was even a season ago.

Just be ready for the occasional blowup game where Wheeler’s movement isn’t as crisp or hitters start laying off some of those sinkers/sweepers on days when he doesn’t have his best command. Unless his velocity increases as the weather gets warmer, he’s going to have to be a bit more careful in the zone with his fastball.

Perhaps this is the beginning of a re-invention of Zack Wheeler. Perhaps it’s a one year situation as he recovers from surgery.

Whatever it is, the results have been encouraging.