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It's a home-run, slump-busting day for me as last week's heater has turned into a cold snap. That's the world of betting on daily home runs, where one multi-hit day changes the tide.

There are 12 starting pitchers today who rank in the Bottom 50 in BlastContact% this year, but with very few great-hitting settings, fading pitchers and bullpens today might be the best approach for MLB player props. 

Despite one run scored last night, I'm going back to Coors and hoping Fernando Tatis can snap his own HR drought, and fading one of the worst BlastCon% pitchers in baseball indoors in Miami for a big price. 

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 22.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr.	+400
Otto Lopez	+1120
💲Today's HR parlay	+30863

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400)

I had this start circled for five days. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is closer to 8.00.

He’s been wildly lucky while allowing the eighth-worst BlastCon% among starters, and he’s posted one of the worst HR/9 rates over the last two seasons.

In short, the San Diego Padres lineup is a great place to look for dingers on Wednesday at Coors Field, especially with poor hitting weather elsewhere.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is +400 to go deep with a fair price around +330, per Covers projections powered by THE BAT. He’s the best +EV home run on the board this morning.

It’s surprising he hasn’t gone deep yet, but that’s why the price is discounted. He leads the team with a 27.5% BlastCon% rate, and it feels like a matter of time before that breaks through.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV

Otto Lopez (+1120)

I’m going four-digit hunting with the No. 2 hitter in the Miami Marlins lineup in a controlled environment with a plus-plus matchup.

Kyle Leahy has the second-worst BlastCon% among MLB starters this year, and it caught up to him last time out when Houston took him deep three times indoors. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, he ranks dead last in BlastCon%.

Miami isn’t known for home-run power, but Otto Lopez stands out at a massive price. He’s being priced like a No. 8 hitter with no pop, but he’s among the team leaders in power metrics and sits well above league average in key home-run indicators.

This may be the best pitching matchup for dingers on the board. The St. Louis Cardinals could also be without key bullpen arms, and they already rank 29th in xFIP among all MLB bullpens, adding to the appeal.

• Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Fernando Tatis Jr.	Bet Now +30863
Otto Lopez
Shane Langeliers

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It’s another busy day across the big leagues, with 15 games on the schedule. My MLB player props analysis will include Nico Hoerner, Munetaka Murakami, and Shohei Ohtani. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, April 22. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Nico Hoerner	Over 0.5 RBI	+180
Munetaka Murakami	Over 0.5 RBI	+150
Shohei Ohtani	Over 6.5 strikeouts	-122

Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI (+180)

Nico Hoerner has been red-hot lately. The Chicago Cubs infielder is batting .326 overall and .347 in the month of April. He’s logged an RBI in three of his last five contests, driving in four during that span. 

In fact, Hoerner is currently tied for third in the league in that category, registering 22 RBI already.

He’ll face Kyle Backhus tonight after going 2-for-5 with a home run and an RBI last night.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee, NBCS-Philadelphia

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBI (+150)

Hoerner may be hot, but I don’t believe anyone is swinging the bat like Munetaka Murakami is right now. The slugger has eight RBI across his last four games, and he’s also gone deep in four straight appearances. He can't be stopped.

He was 3-for-5 in Tuesday’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a home run, an RBI, and three hits. Murakami has six of his 17 RBI against lefties, and Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill tonight for Arizona.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, Dbacks.TV

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts (-122)

Shohei Ohtani takes the hill tonight against the San Francisco Giants, whom he’s dominated in the past.

They’re hitting just .176 against him, and he’s struck out 18 in 51 at-bats. It’s common knowledge that Ohtani has overpowering stuff, and he racked up 10 Ks in his last start against the Mets. 

While San Fran is around the middle of the pack in team strikeouts, they’re swinging and missing a lot more lately, striking out nearly 10 times per game across their previous three contests. Also, Ohtani has collected 16 Ks in 12 innings of work at Dodger Stadium in 2026.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet-Los Angeles, NBCS-Bay Area

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Columbus Clippers 5, Buffalo Bisons 2

Clippers improve to 12-10

Petey Halpin and Stuart Fairchild carried the Clippers offense on Tuesday, both garnering a pair of hits including a double.

Travis Bazzana stayed hot as well, going 1-for-2 with three walks and a stolen base to reach base safely four times. Kahlil Watson walked twice and stole a base and Cooper Ingle also went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base to keep his OPS sizzling at 1.357.

The pitching was the real story here. Logan Allen had his best start of the season, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with seven strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings of work.

Steven Perez struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Andrew Walters gave up one run in his inning and Cody Heuer and Franco Aleman locked things down with a scoreless inning apiece. Aleman struck out the side to earn his first save and maintain a 0.00 ERA on the young season.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Bowie Baysox 7

RubberDucks fall to 10-6

Fresh off the heels of throwing a combined no-hitter, Akron almost got no hit on Tuesday. The RubberDucks managed just one hit while being shutout.

Jose Devers had the lone hit for Akron. No one reached base safely twice.

A solid start from Khal Stephen was wasted. Stephen gave up two runs on three hits with two walks in 5.0 innings while striking out five.

Hunter Stanley had a scoreless 1.2 innings and Reid Johnson put the game out of reach by allowing five runs (four earned) in just one inning of relief.

Lake County Captains 4, West Michigan Whitecaps 2

Captains improve to 8-8

Justin Campbell continues to shine brilliantly. The towering right-hander tossed 3.0 shutout, no-hit innings on Tuesday while striking out four and walking one. I can’t imagine he stays in Lake County much longer unless they’re keeping him there to help stretch him out to 5-6 innings.

Melki Hernandez followed Campbell with two runs allowed on four hits in 4.0 innings to earn the win. He impressively struck out eight batters and walked two.

Luis Flores and Izaak Martinez closed out the win with a scoreless inning apiece.

Offensively, the usual suspects led the way for the Captain. Aaron Walton continues to impress, going 2-for-5 with his second home run of the season, an absolute moonshot in the fifth inning.

Bennett Thompson also blasted off, going 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks.

Luke Hill went 2-for-4 while Jaison Chourio walked three times and stole a base and Jace LaViolette walked twice and was caught stealing.

Hill City Howlers 7, Hickory Crawdads 6

Howlers improve to 10-6

Hill City jumped all over Hickory with four runs in the first inning, then held on to a win Tuesday.

Anthony Martinez led the way, going perfect at the plate, 3-for-3 with a home run, a triple and a walk. He just missed the cycle by a double.

Robert Arias went 2-for-4 with a double, Juneiker Caceres went 2-for-4 with two doubles, Jonathan Martinez went 2-for-4 with a double and Luis De La Cruz went 2-for-4 with two stolen bases.

Starting pitcher Cam Major allowed three runs on four hits in 3.2 innings of work. He struck out two and walked three.

Will McCausland faced his first adversity in long relief, allowing two runs on four hits in 2.2 innings. Luke Fernandez added a scoreless 1.1 frames and Angel Perez picked up a heart attack save by allowing one run in the ninth inning.

Following a 5-3 victory on Tuesday night, the Minnesota Twins wasted no time adding insult to injury for the New York Mets, who suffered their 12th consecutive loss.

The Twins seized the moment with a witty social media post. On X, the team's official account shared a celebratory photo from the game with the tongue-in-cheek caption: “Things that you can get in a dozen: Eggs, Roses, Mets losses.”

New York Mets fans haven't had much to cheer about this season, especially during the team's current 12-game losing streak. But help is on the way.

Star outfielder Juan Soto is set to return from a calf strain that has sidelined him since April 4. During that time, the Mets have fallen from first place in the National League East division to the worst record in the majors.

Soto, who finished third in the 2025 NL MVP voting in his first season after signing a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets, is skipping a minor league rehab assignment and is expected to be back in the lineup Wednesday, April 22, for a home game against the Minnesota Twins.

Michael Busch has been in a season-long slump.

Hopefully, his bases-l0aded two-run single that broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth inning will help him get back to who he was last year. The Cubs also got home runs from Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki and rode yet another outstanding outing from Shōta Imanaga to a 7-4 win over the Phillies on a warm April evening at Wrigley Field. It was the team’s seventh straight win, their longest winning streak since an eight-game run from July 21-29, 2023. It was also the Phillies’ seventh consecutive loss.

Let’s begin at the beginning. Imanaga breezed through the first four innings, allowing just a leadoff walk to Trea Turner and a fourth-inning single to Félix Reyes. Help came, as usual, from the defense. Matt Shaw made this nice grab in foul territory in the first [VIDEO].

The Cubs, though, could not break through in that four-inning stretch, despite having multiple baserunners in multiple innings. They stranded two runners in the second and had the bases loaded in the third with one out when Alex Bregman and Ian Happ walked and Suzuki was hit by a pitch. But Carson Kelly popped up and Busch grounded out.

Stranding runners was going to become a theme in this game.

Dansby Swanson led off the fourth with a walk and one out later was on third after a single by Pete Crow-Armstrong. But he ended the inning right there, on third base.

The Cubs finally got on the board in the fifth. Another walk to Happ was followed by a single from Suzuki. The next two Cubs were routine outs, but they loaded the bases on a walk to Swanson.

Moisés Ballesteros was sent up to bat for Shaw. With the crowd standing, he walked to force in a run [VIDEO].

Look how close that pitch was! (Pitch 7)

Ballesteros, who won numerous ABS challenges while catching during Spring Training, clearly has excellent strike zone judgment.

Scott Kingery was sent in to run for Ballesteros. This move would come back to hurt the Cubs, a bit, later in the game. Craig Counsell was making moves in the fifth inning that a team wouldn’t normally make that early.

PCA, unfortunately, grounded out to end the inning and the Cubs left the bases loaded for the second time.

Kyle Schwarber homered off Imanaga with one out in the sixth to tie the game. It was Imanaga’s only real mistake in seven strong innings. Shōta has allowed just three home runs in 29 innings so far this year, a huge improvement over 2025. He also currently has the best WHIP in MLB at 0.724 and 32 strikeouts in the 29 innings. Imanaga struck out just one in this game, but got 11 ground-ball outs. Here’s more on Shōta’s evening [VIDEO].

A few more notes on Imanaga’s start, from BCB’s JohnW53:

Imanaga is just the fourth Cubs pitcher in the Live Ball Era to start each of his first 59 career games. The first three were Kerry Wood, in 1998-2001; Mark Prior, in 2002-04; and Kyle Hendricks, in 2014-16.
Prior had the lowest ERA of the three, 2.99. Imanaga’s is 3.19. Hendricks’ was 3.31; Woods’, 4.06.
…..
Prior’s also is the lowest among 18 Cubs who made at least 50 starts among their first 59 career games. Rick Reuschel is second, at 3.10 in 56 starts, then Imanaga, Hendricks, Burt Hooton (3.39 in 55), Mike Harkey (3.47 in 58) and Moe Drabowsky (3.50 in 52).

Greg Maddux (55 starts) is tied with Dick Ellsworth (50) for 13th, at 4.05. Jamie Moyer had the highest ERA, 5.01 in 56 starts.

The Cubs broke the tie in the bottom of the sixth. Nico led off with a single. Bregman hit a line drive right at Turner for the first out. Happ singled, but Suzuki struck out. Another walk, drawn by Carson Kelly, loaded the bases.

That brought up Busch [VIDEO].

Busch has actually started to hit, a little, over the last week or so. He’s 8-for-30 (.267) over his last eight games, with four walks giving him a .353 OBP in that span. There’s no power, unfortunately — all eight hits are singles. Hopefully the power will come soon.

Anyway, after Busch’s single, Swanson walked — for the third time! — re-loading the bases. Kingery flied to right to end the inning. If you’re counting, that’s the third time the Cubs left the bases loaded in this game.

The Cubs broke the game open in the seventh. Nico led off with his fourth home run of the year [VIDEO].

Bregman walked and Happ followed with a fly ball to right.

That brought up Suzuki, who had not hit much so far this year. In this at-bat, he absolutely crushed one — to Waveland! [VIDEO].

That ball was hit really hard and went a long, long way:

Here’s where Seiya’s ball went:

Bryce Harper hit a two-run homer off Riley Martin in the eighth, the first runs Martin has allowed since he came to the Cubs. I still like what Martin brings to the team; no shame in giving up a home run to Harper. That made the score 6-3.

The Cubs extended the lead to 7-3 in the eighth. Busch led off with a walk. That was the 10th walk drawn by the Cubs in this game. From John:

The Cubs’ 10 walks were their most since they had 11 at home vs. the White Sox in a 7-3 win on May 17 of last season. Their last game with exactly 10 was on March 31 of last year, while routing the Athletics, 18-3, in the first big league game played in Sacramento.

One out later, Kingery singled — his first hit as a Cub — and PCA laid down a nice bunt to load the bases yet again. A wild pitch scored Busch to make it 7-3. After that, Hoerner was hit by a pitch to re-load the bases, but Bregman hit a line drive comebacker and Happ flied to center to end the inning, so the Cubs left the bases loaded for the fourth time on the evening. They had 12 hits, 10 walks and two batters hit by pitches for a total of 24 baserunners, stranding 17 of them. About that, from John:

Since 1901, the Cubs had played only one previous game in which they had left at least 17 runners on base in a nine-inning game, as they did Tuesday.

They stranded 17 while beating the Reds, 3-1, at Wrigley Field on July 3, 2010. The Cubs made 10 hits, received nine walks and had a batter hit by pitch.

It should be noted that in both those games, since they were both at home, the Cubs left 17 runners while batting in only eight innings! The MLB record for LOB in a nine-inning game is 20, by the Yankees Sept. 21, 1956 against the Red Sox. The Yankees lost that game 13-7 — the Cubs won both the games in which they stranded 17.

Anyway, with the game not in a save situation, Jacob Webb entered to finish. And he might have, if not for the second throwing error of the game by Kingery. This was the risk Counsell took by removing Shaw from the game after just five innings. With a four-run lead in the ninth, I think Counsell should have taken Bregman out of the DH spot and put him at third base for defense.

In any case, the Phillies were thus able to score on a sac fly to make it 7-4, and when Brandon Marsh followed that with a single, Counsell had to call on Caleb Thielbar to finish up. He got Edmundo Sosa to pop up and ended the game with another popup, by Turner [VIDEO].

Here are some postgame comments from Counsell [VIDEO].

And Taylor McGregor talks to Suzuki about his first home run of 2026 [VIDEO].

During the seven-game winning streak, the Cubs have outscored the opposition 51-18 and the 51 runs are the most in MLB over that span. (And they scored seven in the game before the winning streak in a 13-7 loss to the Phillies.) Everything seems to be working well right now so, at least for this game:

Tuesday’s victory also gave the Cubs four wins over the Phillies this year, which clinches the season series. Who knows, maybe that will be important come October. Also with this win and the Pirates loss Tuesday, the Cubs are tied with the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central at 14-9, 1.5 games behind the Reds.

The Cubs will go for eight straight wins, as well as a win of this series, Wednesday evening at Wrigley Field. Matthew Boyd will be activated from the injured list to start Wednesday’s game. The Phillies are starting left-handed reliever Kyle Backhus, likely as an opener with Taijuan Walker set to follow at some point as the “bulk guy.” Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Happy Wednesday, everyone! Just a light general news post for the day, where we look at Dillon Dingler’s incredible zone awareness, just how good Kevin McGonigle has been to start his rookie season, and in a more broad strokes look at baseball news we get a preview of the All-Star Week events, Craig Counsell calls Shohei Ohtani “bizarre” (well, not really), and we dabble into hot topics about pitching.

So let’s just jump right into it!

Detroit Tigers News

• That Dingler kid knows his strike zone.

• Guess the Tigers are feeling pretty good about this extension.

• Prospects on the move.

AL Central News

• Munetaka Murakami has been exactly what the White Sox hoped he’d be: a heavy hitter.

MLB News

• A Dodgers player, injured? Edwin Diaz is heading for surgery.
• Can the 2026 Mets still turn things around?
• Yordan Alvarez has been a real bright spot for the Astros this season.
• A first look at the MLB All-Star Week schedule.
• Is the NL Central the best division in baseball right now?
• Craig Counsell wasn’t shy about calling Shohei Ohtani’s roster flexibility “bizarre.”
• Where does Mason Miller’s scoreless streak rank among relievers?
• I’m sorry but this catch is absolutely insane.
• One Red Sox fan decided to bypass coffee for Monday’s early game and went right to drinking beer out of his shoe.
• What’s going wrong for the Phillies?
• What could the sale of the Padres mean for other small-market teams?
• Will Benson made a fun baseball oddity, scoring twice in one game without ever seeing a pitch.
• Is “lab-grown” pitching changing baseball? (Also a good reminder to read “Unhittable” in preparation for our May 1 book club!)
• Speaking of pitching, Jeff Passan looks at the rise of the 100mph fastball.
• The Blue Jays had to get between game cities by good old-fashioned bus recently after their plane was grounded.
• Jake Mangum, MVP

• A new Mets curse?

• I suppose those outfield lawns are good for something after all.

Essentially, the lab is a place where we can test what we see. That is what statistics are ultimately for. The whole goal is to explain mathematically what we are seeing and feeling. Sometimes we can explain it mathematically and sometimes we aren’t really seeing what we think we are seeing. It might seem like we are throwing a lot of pasta at the wall to see what sticks, but I am a firm believer in the idea that the more numbers we get that say the same thing the more likely we are to be accurate in our assumptions.

This brings us to real offensive value (ROV) and bases per out (BPO). Before we dive into these numbers we should define them, how they are calculated, and what they are looking for. Real offensive value is the easiest one to calculate. The idea behind it is the combine elements like batting average with elements that include everything but batting average. It includes two numbers that can easily be found at baseball-reference.com. Simply put, you add batting average to secondary average and divide by two.

Essentially, secondary average calculates everything a player does that does not include batting average. For most of us in the stats game, that would include isolated power, isolated patience, and stolen bases. A league average secondary average tends to mirror the league average in batting average, so a real offensive value can be interpreted the same way as batting average. A .250 ROV is probably close to big league average although early returns might be different this season.

BPO essentially measures the same thing in a different way. It is calculated by adding total bases, walks, hit by pitches, and stolen bases and dividing it by the total number of outs. Unfortunately, baseball-reference.com does not calculate either ROV or BPO, but the components are all there to do it by hand. While seasons vary, the league average tends to range between .650 and .700.

The first thing we are going to do is clean up our disclaimers and particulars. These are the numbers at the conclusion of Monday night’s game. Obviously, no two numbers will ever have a perfect 100 percent correlation. That is particularly true early in the season. ROV and BPO measure most of the same things, but there are some subtle differences. For instance, ROV does not penalize you for grounding into double plays, but bases per out does. On a long enough timeline, those things won’t matter as much, but in the span of 24 games it all matters a great deal.

These numbers confirm a couple of important things and highlight an area where we may have overlooked something. On the first count, Yordan’s numbers are just stupidly good. You’d have to track the best seasons of Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, or maybe Lou Gehrig to find numbers that would even approach that for a full season. For reasons that will hopefully be obvious, we won’t do that yet, but if this trend continues we will definitely look at those comparisons.

Secondly, Diaz has been historically awful both offensively and defensively (as Patrick pointed out yesterday). Again, this is about finding as many different ways to show the same thing over and over. It seems repetitive, but it also confirms something we are seeing with our eyes. This is one of those areas where Patrick has done the heavy lifting for me. It would be easy to look at Vazquez’s numbers and Diaz’s numbers and simply assume that Vazquez should be the starter from here on out.

That may turn out to be the case, but nothing is ever that simple. Vazquez’s underlying hitting numbers point to regression. We are looking at things like expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and exit velocity. Vazquez will not be an all-star catcher when all is said and done. If we are lucky he could be the equivalent of a mediocre regular catcher when all is said and done. The good news is that he doesn’t have to be.

A baseball season is a 162 game marathon, but within that marathon there are multiple parts. Each player has good parts and bad parts. The trick is to maximize the good parts and minimize the bad parts. Vazquez is hot and Diaz is cold. That will likely change within a few weeks, but Joe Espada might as well take advantage of the hot streak now. If he and the Astros are lucky, Diaz will recover at about the same time that Vazquez begins to falter. In the meantime, you milk as much as you can out of Vazquez and minimize the damage Diaz is currently doing.

The surprise in the numbers comes in the fact that Brice Mathews doesn’t look like hot garbage when looking at those numbers. Many of the Astros young hitters are cut from the same cloth. They bring power, patience, and speed to the offense. They also bring a ton of swing and miss. The outfield will provide Espada with opportunities to mix and match. Center field might be an interesting spot for a platoon when Jake Meyers comes back. A lefty/righty platoon between Trammel and Meyers could be intriguing.

Similarly, a lefty righty platoon between Joey Loperfido and Mathews might also be interesting in left field. Obviously, Yordan will play there some as well as they try to fit Isaac Paredes into the every day lineup. The point is that lackluster pitching might give this team some freedom to experiment with guys in a lower pressure situation. If the playoffs are not riding on the outcome, you can use a couple of spots to test younger players to see if they can be a part of the picture moving forward. We will definitely revisit this as the year goes on. Is there anything that surprised you?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers hope to break out of a funk as Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Game 2 of their series against the San Francisco Giants. 

Tony Vitello’s built some much-needed momentum with a series-opening victory, however, and his squad is laser-focused on this rivalry series as a turning point in the young season.

My Dodgers vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks are backing the underdog on Wednesday, April 22.

Who will win Dodgers vs Giants today: Giants (+186)

The odds indicate that this is supposed to be a squash match for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Shohei Ohtani’s pristine 0.50 ERA stands in stark contrast to Tyler Mahle’s (7.23), so the market expects a bounce-back from L.A. after Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat. 

Mahle’s due for positive regression, however, as he pitched to a 2.18 ERA across 16 starts a year ago and will benefit from the confines of pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. 

Ohtani’s control (94 Location+) hasn’t come back to bite him yet, but that and his unsustainable .158 BABIP indicate his pretty ERA will creep up eventually.

COVERS INTEL: Tyler Mahle has found success against some of L.A.’s best hitters in the past. He’s held Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, and Max Muncy to six hits in 29 at-bats (.207 AVG) with 10 strikeouts.

Dodgers vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+108)

The first game of this series flew Under the total in a low-scoring 3-1 San Francisco Giants win, and a similar result could be in store during a chilly Wednesday night in San Francisco. 

Temperatures in the high-50s for most of this contest will benefit both starting pitchers as well as the two Top-10 bullpens behind them (LAD 3.49 SIERA in relief; SFG 3.59). 

L.A. is in a bit of a slump, dropping three of its last four games while missing Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman in the lineup. San Francisco, meanwhile, has yet to get the bats going against right-handed pitching (79 wRC+).

Dodgers vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -200 | Giants +190
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-120) | Giants +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Dodgers vs Giants trend

The Dodgers have dropped three of their last four games, costing one-unit bettors a 5.75 unit loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants.

How to watch Dodgers vs Giants and game info

Dodgers vs Giants latest injuries

Dodgers vs Giants weather

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MLB.com’s Anne Rogers talks to the Kansas City Royals leadership following a terrible start to the 2026 season.

“You look back two months ago, month ago, no one in here would believe we’re technically the worst team in baseball,” Bobby Witt Jr. said. “We believe in each and every one in here. And that’s how we got to go about it. We got to get better every day and try to just improve.”

This is the answer the Royals continue to state no matter how bad things look on the field. General manager J.J. Picollo expressed outward confidence in his club Monday afternoon in his usual homestand-opening scrum with local media, acknowledging that the group is pressing some but that the only way out of it is to keep moving forward and trust the process just 23 games into the year.

“We all know how long the season is,” Picollo said. “If you break the season up in bunches, short bunches, it doesn’t take much to turn something around. But if we get too focused and caught up in what’s happened over the last couple of weeks, we’re not going to be able to move forward. You get one big hit, the energy changes. The excitement changes. That may lead into the next night, and now all of a sudden the mentality changes. That’s something that we need to have happen.”

That was not all Picollo had to say, especially when it came to sticking with manager Matt Quatraro.

Once again, the Royals find themselves stumbling out of the gate in the first full month of the season. The Royals have lost eight straight games following Monday night’s 7-5 defeat to the Orioles in 12 innings, and they have the worst record in baseball at 7-16. Some fans have called for a change, but Royals general manager J.J. Picollo on Monday met with the media and expressed confidence in manager Matt Quatraro. The reason for Picollo’s faith? He looked back at Quatraro’s first year as Royals manager in 2023 when the team lost 106 games. But the following season, they were in the playoffs. “That’s ultimately going back to ‘23 when you go through a really tough year, and the composure that he kept through ‘23, the positivity, the way we played in August and September of that year, where we played a lot better, led into ‘24,” Picollo said of Quatraro. “I think his steadiness is what allows us to do things well and right the ship.” That ship is currently taking on water.

Where is the Royals’ new stadium actually going to be located? Probably not Washington Square Park, apparently.

Johnathan Duncan, city councilman for the 6th District, told The Star the stadium footprint “that will be briefed tomorrow is not Washington Square Park.” The city has notably been referring to the project location as a combination of Washington Square Park and neighboring Crown Center. While the Royals have not publicly unveiled their vision for the area, Duncan’s suggestion would illustrate a remarkable shift in at least the public perception of the stadium plan. The City Council passed an ordinance Thursday authorizing City Manager Mario Vasquez to negotiate with the Royals a stadium deal up to $600 million. The financial framework has occupied the conversation over the ensuing week, but Duncan said, “there’s a lack of clarity about the site.” The Royals could provide that clarity during a planned Wednesday morning announcement at a Crown Center restaurant.

Win or lose, the Royals have a big announcement Wednesday.

The Kansas City Royals are scheduled to announce an “important update” about the team’s future in Kansas City on Wednesday, a long-awaited decision that could mark the culmination of the team’s stadium hunt. Royals Chairman and CEO John Sherman will make the announcement alongside Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe and Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas at 10 a.m. Wednesday, according to a release from the team on Tuesday. TOP VIDEOS The video player is currently playing an ad. The announcement is expected to center on a new Royals downtown stadium, according to two officials scheduled to attend the press conference and an email invitation sent to City Council members on Tuesday. That invitation references a “Bring the Crown Downtown Ballpark Celebration.”

David Lesky did not mince words after the Royals’ Monday night loss.

At some point, the hole is just too deep to get out of, but that point generally doesn’t come quite so early in the season. And yet, here we are after another Royals loss, their eighth in a row. The Royals had a gut-punch loss in the second game of the season when they blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth. They had another gut-punch loss just a few days ago when they came back from five down to take a lead into the ninth, but blew that. Last night may be worse than either of those. But having three examples to choose from in 23 games might be the bigger problem than any single game. The fact that I would have been shocked if they didn’t blow it last night is just sad.

There were 18 players who appeared for the Royals last night. Four of them carry zero blame of an ugly, ugly loss.

Lesky was not the only one who felt this way, after Royals fans made their feelings heard during Monday’s loss.

There were boos throughout the night. The Royals (7-16) own the worst record in Major League Baseball and have lost eight consecutive games. TOP VIDEOS The video player is currently playing an ad. You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. addressed the situation postgame. He felt the Royals’ fan base deserved a better product on the field. “Yeah, it sucks,” Witt said. “But if you’re the worst team in baseball, you might deserve to get booed every once in a while. It should motivate us to get better. Just motivate us to go out there and just lay it all on the field each and every night. Give it all every night, and so just go from there.”

Just in case you forgot the pain that was Monday’s loss, here is a good reminder from Vahe Gregorian.

Somehow, though, the Royals outdid themselves Monday night with a nauseating defeat — one that conjured the immortal wisdom of former Royals manager Buddy Bell. Following a 10th straight loss in 2006, he alertly said, “I never say it can’t get worse.” At least that losing streak ended after one more L. These Royals should only be so fortunate after the 7-5 loss in 12 innings against Baltimore extended the losing streak to eight — their longest since a 10-game string in 2023 on the way to a 56-106 season. Instead of being the fresh start they desperately need, this game was somewhere between a microcosm and fusion of all that’s been going awry all season: Again with the stupefying inability to produce with runners in scoring position, underscored by leaving 16 men on base. Fresh evidence that the bullpen that was such an asset last season no longer is slamming the door but … a trap door; in this case, it squandered Seth Lugo’s seven innings of one-hit, scoreless work into the eighth loss of the season by relievers after Alex Lange gave up five runs in the 12th.

Royals Keep says it is time to hit reset on our expectations for the 2026 Royals.

Is it Time to Rethink the 2026 Royals?
Yes. No big league team is or can be perfect, but Kansas City’s imperfections are glaring. Perhaps general manager J.J. Picollo found the offseason price of a new big bat too high and settled for less than he wanted and his club needed. Perhaps Perez is running out of gas. Maybe some of the club’s talent is overrated, and was from the start.

Improvement is needed. And sooner, not later; the club can’t wait for the midsummer trade deadline. But the history of this typically conservative franchise suggests no new, truly impactful major league hitter will arrive this season, and hoping the rotation and bullpen pick up the slack all season is too much to ask.

Although it’s still early, this club is in trouble.

The Royals minor-league affiliates are staying competitive to start the season, and one Omaha reliever is standing out from his peers.

On the pitching end, Chazz Martinez had a solid week, allowing no runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six in three innings of work. For the season, Martinez is posting a 41.7% K% and 20.8% K-BB% in six innings of work. While the TJ Stuff+ metrics aren’t great (98 overall), he’s done an excellent job limiting hard contact while generating solid whiff and chase rates, as seen below.

The four-seamer is an interesting pitch with crazy horizontal break (18.3 HB), and it generates a decent amount of chase (26.9%) and whiff (31.8%) as well as weak contact (.241 xwOBACON). As a result, the four-seamer has a 102 TJ Stuff+ and a 57 grade. Unfortunately, his other offerings don’t rate as well stuff-wise, with his sweeper having a 30 grade and changeup sporting a 47 grade.

Still, Martinez could be an Evan Sisk type who simply can generate chase and whiff effectively due to his arm angles, even if he may not have the most overpowering stuff profile.

All five of Kansas City’s starters are in The Athletic’s top 100 starting pitching rankings following the April update.

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Boston Red Sox starter Sony Gray hits the IL with a hamstring strain.

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New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel is still dealing with the fallout of photos showing him with reporter Dianna Russini.

Basketball coach Billy Donovan resigned from his head coaching post after six seasons with the Chicago Bulls.

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The three-game series is up for grabs when the Baltimore Orioles meet the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon.

Royals starter Michael Wacha’s peripherals point to regression, and my Orioles vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks are backing the underdog Orioles. 

Who will win Orioles vs Royals today: Baltimore Orioles (+115)

Michael Wacha’s 1.00 ERA looks dominant, but it’s misleading. His 3.95 xFIP suggests he hasn’t pitched nearly that well, and regression is coming. 

The Baltimore Orioles lineup is already rolling, scoring 12 runs in this series, and the Kansas City Royals' bullpen, ranked 26th in baseball, is unlikely to slow them down. The Orioles also hold a clear bullpen edge, and that matters once the starters exit.

The Royals are 8-16 for a reason; outside of Carter Jensen and Bobby Witt Jr., their sticks have been too inconsistent, and I'll take the plus-money Orioles today.  

COVERS INTEL:This Orioles bullpen strikes out the second-most batters per nine innings (10.38) with a third-best 3.26 SIERRA.

Orioles vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-126)

Wacha may be outperforming his metrics, but his 23.5% strikeout rate and 33% chase rate are legitimate, and Baltimore's lineup punches out 25% of the time against right-handers. 

That's a dangerous combination. 

Kansas City's bullpen may be a disaster, but they won't be tested much if Wacha deals deep into the game. Kansas City's lineup will swing early and often against Bassitt, and its 23.5% strikeout rate should help the struggling Orioles starter.

With two pitchers doing just enough against two aggressive lineups, runs might be hard to come by. Take the Under.

Orioles vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +113 | Royals -122
• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-170) | Royals -1.5 (+163)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+113) | Under (-117)

Orioles vs Royals trend

The Royals have cashed the Under in 29 of their last 50 games for +6.20 units and an 11% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Royals.

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