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We’re still in the stretch run for the 2026 postseason, but today Major League Baseball and the Cubs announced Spring Training schedules for next year.

As is the case for the regular season schedule, there will be the earliest-ever date for the beginning of Spring Training games. This, of course, is subject to the labor negotiations for the next MLB/MLBPA collective bargaining agreement, which could include an owners lockout. Thus these dates are all subject to change.

Here is the complete Cubs 2027 spring schedule. Home games in boldface. (ss) denotes split squad. The Cubs have two split squad games, Feb. 28 and March 12.

Game times will be added when available, all times Central. The Cubs say you can call 480-668-0500, email mesa@cubs.com or visit the Sloan Park website for additional information.

Fri 2/19: vs. Athletics at Mesa
Sat 2/20: vs. Reds at Sloan Park
Sun 2/21: vs. Padres at Sloan Park
Mon 2/22: vs. Diamondbacks at Scottsdale
Tue 2/23: vs. White Sox at Sloan Park
Wed 2/24: vs. Royals at Surprise
Thu 2/25: vs. Angels at Sloan Park
Fri 2/26: vs. Padres at Peoria
Sat 2/27: vs. Rockies at Sloan Park
Sun 2/28: vs. Royals at Sloan Park (ss)
Sun 2/28: vs. Rangers at Surprise (ss)
Mon 3/1: vs. Angels at Tempe
Tue 3/2: OFF DAY
Wed 3/3: vs. Guardians at Goodyear
Thu 3/4: vs. Rangers at Sloan Park
Fri 3/5: vs. Dodgers at Glendale
Sat 3/6: vs. Mariners at Sloan Park
Sun 3/7: vs. Brewers at Phoenix
Mon 3/8: vs. Giants at Sloan Park
Tue 3/9: OFF DAY
Wed 3/10: vs. Athletics at Sloan Park
Thu 3/11: vs. Rockies at Scottsdale
Fri 3/12: vs. Guardians at Sloan Park (ss)
Fri 3/12: vs. White Sox at Glendale (ss)
Sat 3/13: vs. Diamondbacks at Scottsdale
Sun 3/14: (DST begins) vs. Athletics at Sloan Park
Mon 3/15: vs. Dodgers at Sloan Park
Tue 3/16: vs. Reds at Goodyear
Wed 3/17: vs. Brewers at Sloan Park
Thu 3/18: OFF DAY
Fri 3/19: vs. Diamondbacks at Sloan Park
Sat 3/20: vs. Giants at Scottsdale
Sun 3/21: vs. Mariners at Peoria
Mon 3/22: vs. Brewers at Sloan Park
Tue 3/23: vs. Brewers at Sloan Park

Here’s a calendar style schedule if you prefer that format.

On September 1, it was announced that Stan Kroenke would buy the Anaheim Angels from Arte Moreno for more than $4 billion, eclipsing the highest sale price for an MLB team, set recently by the San Diego Padres. The Angels deal is noteworthy because the team’s lease on the city-owned land runs through 2032.

While word started circulating online that Kroenke was going to build a new stadium, nothing has been confirmed at this time. Angel Stadium is a bit of an underwhelming dump.

On August 28, Gov. Newsom signed AB-2512, “The Home Run for Anaheim Act.” Per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, the law provides the city of Anaheim with an incentive if the team wishes to develop the 150-acre Angel Stadium property; state law would prioritize affordable housing within the site. If the team sought an exemption to this requirement:

In an era when team owners covet the profits from development around stadiums and arenas — including places for fans to eat, drink and shop 365 days a year, not just on game days — Anaheim could seek an exemption from the affordable housing law. That wouldn’t rule out housing on the site, but it would give a team more flexibility to build whatever project might be considered most profitable.

If the city obtains the exemption, the new law says, “then any materials, including, but not limited to, a lease, deed of sale, and promotional or marketing materials, shall refer to that team as the Anaheim Angels.

If you are thinking that this law is a roundabout way to fix the name of the Anaheim team, you would not be wrong. While the Angels have officially been known as the Los Angeles Angels in recent years, I have made it a point to refuse to capitulate for three reasons:

1. It’s geographically wrong – Anaheim is not Los Angeles, nor is Anaheim in Los Angeles County
2. It’s a linguistic nightmare – Los Angeles in Spanish is the angels, so effectively, the organization is adopting the the angels angels as a name
3. I’m petty – I refuse to let Arte Moreno’s gambit to pander to Los Angeles work

Arte Moreno is set to make a massive profit, having bought the team for $184 million in 2003. We have made much merry as to the organization’s staggering incompetence over the past five years. The Angels had prime Mike Trout and prime Shohei Ohtani and could not get close to a .500 record, much less a championship after the pair’s first year together.

Ohtani has gone two-for-two in championships since arriving in Los Angeles. It is striking that the Dodgers have something in common with the Angels: they are bungling their handling of Shohei Ohtani.

Ignore your lying eyes?

There is something physically wrong with Shohei Ohtani. Only now, the Dodgers might finally be doing something about it.

As a fan, you’ve seen it with your own eyes for months. First, Ohtani hurt his left knee, which sidelined him from the start on July 3. On July 29th, Dave Roberts announced that Ohtani was also dealing with a right bicep issue.

Ohtani has not pitched in the second half.

The Japanese Superman has looked far more like Clark Kent at the plate in the second half, with a slash line of .250/.333/.476 with 9 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB (out of 6 tries), 19 BB, and 49 Ks. This slash line would be fine for a player with a lower ceiling, but over the past two years, Ohtani has been a dynamic force on offense, outside of the 2024 World Series when he injured his shoulder.

Now, Ohtani just looks normal, which should be setting off alarm bells all over Dodger Nation. This offensive malaise, which feels overly dramatic here but Ohtani has set the bar ridiculously high in his two previous campaigns, came to a head on September 2 when Ohtani had one of the more physically uncomfortable at-bats in memory, mimicking the Tin Man (sans oil) of “The Wizard of Oz.”

It was heroic when Kirk Gibson essentially was “all arms, no legs” against Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series. But circumstances and context matter. For Ohtani to be in the same position on September 2 borders on professional malpractice.

GM Brandon Gomes added fuel to this argument by disputing Ohtani’s struggles can be tied to how he’s been feeling physically. I do not see how one can credibly make this argument.

One need only compare Ohtani to Kyle Tucker, who is clearly physically fine but mired in an existential mental crisis that seems to deepen with each lazy pop up while at Dodger Stadium. Ohtani looks to be physically impaired, which is not the same thing.

Dustin Nosler of Dodgers Digestwrote an excellent, comprehensive breakdown of how Ohtani has been struggling at the plate in the second half of 2026. Rather than repeat or duplicate his work, I will instead heartily recommend that everyone read it, while I summarize the key points.

• Ohtani’s average and whiff rate are getting worse
• Pitchers are starting to work Ohtani up and away, but are also challenging him in the heart of the plate.
• As a result, Ohtani’s chase rate has gone up

Nosler comes to a stark conclusion based on what we have seen before:

Now, Ohtani didn’t suddenly forget how to hit. Superhuman ball players don’t just lose it in the span of a couple months. It can all be traced back to the knee injury (and, possibly, the bicep injury).

While this version of Ohtani is productive — and we’ve seen some flashes of him being pre-June 13 Ohtani — he isn’t what the struggling Dodgers’ offense needs. They need the guy he has been the last two years, but it’s increasingly unlikely he’s going to be that guy while managing the knee injury.

At some point, if/when do the Dodgers force the issue and put Ohtani on the injured list? Because if this is the version of Ohtani we get for the rest of 2026, coupled with no pitching, might not be enough to secure a 3-peat. Yes, the other hitters in the lineup have to do their respective part, but it all starts and ends with Ohtani.

[Emphasis added.]

The MVP cake is baked

When one takes a broader view of what is left in the year, a lot of the noise falls away when one remembers what the actual goal is.

While the Dodgers have played footsie as to when Ohtani will return to the mound, circumstances surrounding whether the team was asking the right question came to a head after the Dodgers coughed up another game against a sub-500 opponent in 2025-fashion. Dave Roberts spoke to Fabian Ardaya of The Athleticafter Game 2 of the Cardinals series about Ohtani’s status:

“Tonight was kind of the tip of the iceberg,” manager Dave Roberts said of his star, whose every limp and wince has become a major talking point for the reigning back-to-back World Series champions.

“I’ve seen it over the last couple weeks, where he hasn’t been who he is.”

Roberts downplayed Ohtani going on the injured list, while acknowledging that he and the training staff would talk to Ohtani about what to do in the remaining 22 games of the regular season.

“I know he feels that he needs to post and be in the lineup,” Roberts said. “(That) if he’s upright, he should play. I respect that. But if he’s feeling the way that visibly looks, then really not helping anyone.”

“I saw the same thing that everyone saw,” Roberts said. “I saw the shaking of the arm. I saw the wincing. Clearly, the swings aren’t who he is.”

“I think he’s just going to have to find a way to make do and do the best he can,” Roberts said. “But what can I do? Have the conversation. Get him off his feet. Kind of try to get some strength back. Get him feeling better, and then run them out there.”

[Emphasis added.]

For all the talk of Ohtani not having any restrictions this year as a two-way player, it sure is helpful that he expended all that effort on starts in Houston and San Francisco in May. Hindsight is 20/20, but it feels that everyone took their eye of the ball here.

The Dodgers’ personnel moves with the September roster expansion, which merit their own rant/discussion, only make sense if Ohtani is finally put on the injured list to recuperate. The Dodgers have a catcher on the roster who literally cannot catch right now: Dalton Rushing.

While no one is eager to relive the “Dalton Rushing is now accidentally important at work” arc, half measures of giving Ohtani a day off here and there seem woefully inadequate and short-sighted. Plus, Rushing has been out of action, so some daily reps might get him back to speed, especially if he ends up on the playoff roster.

Moreover, there’s no real point to having Ohtani drag himself to play right now, as battered as he is.

At worst, barring a collapse that would require people to be retired/forced out/sacked, the Dodgers will finish no worse than the third seed. That scenario is not ideal and likely creates the possibility of some darkly ironic situations in October. But the fact remains true with or without Ohtani.

As things stand, Shohei Ohtani’s streak of Most Valuable Player Awards is likely over, as the Chicago Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a bar trivia year (“Name the player to win the 2026 NL MVP award.”; see also “Name the player to win the 2018 World Series MVP.” — if you said Mookie Betts, you’d be wrong; it was Steve Pearce.).

The question I would ask

Ohtani wants to play every day, but it’s clear that every time he tries to take an extra base and every at-bat, he’s risking making his injuries worse.

If Ohtani still resists a stint on the injured list to recover, I would ask him the following question. And I apologize in advance for my awkward Japanese, as my studies are not to the point to let me communicate how I would in my native tongue even after two years plus of study:

大谷さん、あなたにとってより大切なのは何ですか。個人賞ですか、それとも団体優勝ですか？

(Otani-san, anatani totte yori taisetsunanowa nan’desuka kojin’shōdesuka soretomo dan’taiyūshōdesuka?)

(Mr. Ohtani, which is more important to you: an individual award of a team championship?)

At least, Ohtani demonstrated good sense in accepting sitting out Thursday’s finale against the Cardinals.

It appears unlikely that Ohtani will be stretched out or healthy enough to retake the mound as a starting pitcher in 2026. There have been rumblings that Ohtani should return to left field, which, honestly, is a terrible idea given the injuries we have covered in this article. If Ohtani can get back to some semblance of form, it might be wise to use him in a Sasaki-esque/World Baseball Classic-esque reliever role, which is fodder for later.

Frankly, if the Dodgers are going to go down in their title defense, I would rather Ohtani be on the mound than Tanner Scott or Edwin Diaz. I am hardly chicken on the matter, either.

No disrespect to Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez, but if Ohtani ends up going down for the year, the chance of a three-peat goes kaput, right quick.

A stretch that will likely determine the fate of the Braves’ pursuit of an NL East title begins Friday night in Philadelphia.

Atlanta, which holds a four-game lead over the Phillies in the division, kicks off a four-game series in Philadelphia at 6:40 p.m. ET, also beginning a run of seven games against the Phillies in 10 days which continues next weekend in Atlanta.

Luckily for the Braves, they do it with Chris Sale (13-9, 2.06 ERA) on the mound.

Unfortunately for them, they’ll have to face Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez (16-4, 2.52 ERA) in what sets up to be quite a matchup of southpaw aces.

Sale was given three extra days of rest after throwing a season-high 109 pitches in his complete-game shutout of the Dodgers last time out on August 27.

His first shutout since 2019 capped off another stellar month for the left-hander, even if his record didn’t show it. He was 1-3 despite posting a 2.00 ERA over 27 innings with 34 strikeouts to two walks in four August starts.

Sale now begins his final month of the regular season with his third start of the season against the Phillies. He made consecutive starts against Philadelphia back in April, recording a pair of wins while allowing one combined run on six hits over 13 innings, striking out 16 and walking three.

In nine career starts against the Phillies, Sale is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA, 70 strikeouts and 11 walks.

This will be the second time this season Sánchez starts a game opposite Sale. They opposed each other in an April 18 game in Philadelphia, with Sánchez taking the loss that night as he allowed three unearned runs on eight hits over six innings.

While he fell to a 2-2 record at that time, Sánchez has had much better luck with results since, losing just two of his 16 decisions since that point. After the left-hander appeared to hit a wall of sorts when he posted a 6.65 ERA in four July starts, he bounced back with a vengeance in August, going 3-0 in six starts with a 1.72 ERA.

Sánchez, who debuted in 2021, has never earned a win against the Braves. He’s 0-4 with a 3.09 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Atlanta.

There’s an approximately 50% chance of rain in Philadelphia Friday afternoon, but that percentage falls lower into the evening, hopefully paving the path for uninterrupted outings for Sale and Sánchez.

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, September 4th, 6:40 p.m. ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pa.

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Cubs last played the Marlins May 21, 2025. They won that game 2-1. That was 471 days ago, so long ago that it was the day of Cade Horton’s second MLB start and Matt Mervis was the Marlins’ designated hitter.

Things are, obviously, very different now for both teams.

The good news here is that the Cubs won’t have to face Miami’s best starter (and one of the best in the league), Sandy Alcántara.

For more on the Marlins, here’s Ely Sussman, who runs the Marlins site Fish On First.

The 2026 Marlins are an incomplete team, but that’s still good enough to hang around in the race for the National League’s third wild-card spot.

There have been extreme inconsistencies on an individual level. During the first half of the season, Otto Lopez, Max Meyer and Liam Hicks did a lot of the heavy lifting. Since then, Lopez’s bat has dramatically cooled, Meyer landed on the injured list and isn’t expected back this year, and Hicks was traded to Tampa Bay. As of late, Javier Sanoja and Eury Pérez have elevated their games to compensate for that.

The Marlins quietly have baseball’s lowest starting rotation ERA over the past month, but aside from Pérez and Sandy Alcántara, they keep their starters on a very short leash. That applies pressure to a bullpen which is lacking in experience with both Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender on the IL (and John King recently released). Until Fairbanks gets back, it’s a closer-by-committee approach.

In any matchup, the Marlins’ success largely hinges on how they navigate opposing right-handed batters without any reliable left-handed arms and how much damage they do to the other team’s southpaws given their own lack of pop from the right side of the plate.

Fun facts

The Cubs’ first visit of the year to Miami has come even later than today’s date in four seasons:

2010: Sept. 17
2022: Sept. 19
2004: Sept. 20
2007: Sept. 25

Their Sept. 22 game at Wrigley Field will be their latest first meeting there, breaking the record of Sept. 10 in 2004.
…..
The Cubs are 56-59 in games at Miami, including 20-23 at loanDepot Park.

Since sweeping three games there in April of 2019, the Cubs lost three straight in 2021, won two of three in 2022, were swept in 2023, then won two of three in 2024 and 2025.

Two years ago, the Cubs won the first two games and lost the third. Last year, they lost the first, 8-7, then won the next two, 14-1 and 2-1.

The Marlins’ eighth run in this year’s series will make them the 14th team to tally 1,000 vs. the Cubs. The only other current National League team with fewer than 1,000 is the Diamondbacks, with 935.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (8-10, 4.01 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 4.80 FIP) vs. Janson Junk, RHP (6-8, 4.11 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 4.15 FIP)

Saturday: Clay Holmes, RHP (2-2, 1.55 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3.23 FIP in five starts with Cubs; 6-6, 2.09 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 3.22 FIP in 14 starts overall) vs. Ryan Gusto, RHP (1-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 4.01 FIP)

Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 4.57 FIP) vs. Tyler Phillips, RHP (4-6, 3.43 ERA, 1,332 WHIP, 4.47 FIP)

NOTE: The Cubs do not yet officially have starters listed for Saturday and Sunday. Holmes and Boyd should get those starts based on the current rotation.

Times & TV channels

Friday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 3:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 12:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

Honestly, I have no idea. The Marlins have played well at times, not so well at other times. They’ve been good at home, with a 42-27 record at loanDepot Park. But they are 20-39 against teams at or better than .500 and since the beginning of August they’re 1-8 against such teams.

Further, Miami is 16-23 against left-handed starters.

So I’m going to say the Cubs should, and will, take two of three.

Up next

The Cubs travel to Milwaukee for a three-game series against the Brewers beginning Monday afternoon.

Worcester Red Sox 3, Buffalo Bisons 3 (Suspended after 9 innings)

(Link to Gameday for ongoing box score)

Rain hit at Sahlen Field in Buffalo at the most inopportune time, moments after the Bisons tied the game with a run in the bottom of the ninth. In to close the game, Hobie Harris walked four Bisons (TOR) hitters before it started raining. Kristian Campbell stood at the plate with a 1-1 count to start the top of the tenth when the skies opened up, and the game could not resume. 

Blake Wehunt started the game and went six innings, allowing one run and striking out six. At the dish, the Woo Sox had multi-hit games from Franklin Arias, Mikey Romero, Romy Gonzalez, and Vinny Capra. Gonzalez was 4-for-5 with one RBI. 

Romy has been on fire in recent weeks after getting the short end of the stick with the big league club. Rushing back from his rehab, Gonzalez was given just 65 at-bats (.185 BA) before his demotion. He deserves another shot this season, but it will be tough to find a spot for him with an already crowded infield, which just got more crowded with the return of Trevor Story and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and with Curtis Mead possibly returning later this month. Gonzalez is 9-for-14 in the past three games and is slashing .371/.423/.557 since returning to Worcester on August 7th, with three home runs and 16 RBI. 

Tonight’s game will restart at 5:05 PM before the regularly scheduled game to follow. John Holobetz (1-4, 5.47) will throw in that one.

Portland Sea Dogs 5, Chesapeake Baysox 4 (BOX)

The Sea Dogs made a late-inning comeback on the road last night, scoring two runs in the seventh and a run in each of the final two innings to pull out the 5-4 win. 

Brooks Brannon got the scoring started for Portland with his 21st home run in the second inning, off Baysox (BAL) starter Anthony Eyanson. It was Eyanson’s only blemish, striking out eight over six innings. 

Once Eyanson was out of the game, Henry Godbout and Max Ferguson hit back-to-back home runs in the seventh inning. After a Justin Gonzales sac fly tied it, Godbout came up again to hit the game-winner, his seventh home run since being promoted to Double-A. 

On the mound, when’s the last time you’ve seen a line like this?

Futrell “scattered” 13 hits and ended up with a no decision. Max Carlson got the win and Caleb Bolden the save, combining for three shutout innings. 

Michael Sansone (3-3, 5.36) will get the ball Friday at 7:05. 

Bowling Green Hot Rods 7, Greenville Drive 6 (BOX)

Dylan Brown started against the Hot Rods (TB) on Thursday and while the results weren’t elite, he continued his stretch of excellent command, striking out 8 and walking nobody. He has a 46:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his past seven starts (3.09 ERA). He left with a no decision, allowing three runs over 5 ⅓ innings. 

Ronny Hernandez, Givian Sirvania, and Nazzan Zanetello all homered for the Drive, with Zanetello dropping a two-run shot to tie the game in the top of the ninth inning. 

Unfortunately, Matt McShane gave up a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth to Tony Santa Maria, his second of the night. What a shame that Matt Vasgersian couldn’t be on the call for that one. 

Yordanny Monegro (0-0, 0.00) makes his second start since returning from Tommy John on Thursday at 7:35.

Hill City Howlers 1, Salem RidgeYaks 0 (BOX)

Starter Cole Tolbert was dealing on Thursday, getting through 5 ⅓ shutout innings on 63 pitches. He couldn’t get the win as the offense didn’t show up, as they were shutout on six hits. Franklin Primera had the lone multi-hit effort, improving his average to .327 at Low-A. 

Cam Padgett (0-0, 4.22) will be on the bump at 6:35 Friday.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are a massive home favorite over the Washington Nationals ahead of the 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Sept. 4.

My top Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks call for Los Angeles to win the series opener convincingly tonight. 

Who will win Nationals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 run line (53.7%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Dodgers land in a favorable home spot tonight, with the Washington Nationals sending rookie Jackson Kent to the hill.

Kent has spun a5.35 xERA and 4.83 xFIP across his four starts while walking 15 batters over just 19 1/3 innings. Issuing too many free passes is a major concern considering Los Angeles ranks sixth in wOBA against lefties for the season and sixth in xwOBA across the past 30 days.

The Dodgers are countering with veteran Blake Snell, and after a so-so season debut, he’s allowed just three runs across his past four starts with a sterling 1.82 xERA and dominant 34.1 strikeout percentage.

Expect Los Angeles to cruise to victory tonight. 

COVERS INTEL: The Los Angeles Dodgers pace the majors in xwOBA and rank third in xwOBA on contact.

Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53.5%)

With Snell’s highlighted run on the mound, I’m not anticipating the Nationals mounting enough offense to help send this total Over the number. After all, Washington has dipped to 18th in wOBA on the road in the second half.

The Nationals have played to their team total Under in 13 of their past 17 road games, and to the game total Under in 12 of their past 18 away games. Similarly, Los Angeles has played to the team total Under in 15 of its past 24.

Nationals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez (16.8%)

With just a single home run across his past 26 games, Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is eyeing statistical correction at the dish and has the handedness advantage against Kent this evening.

Hernandez’s .184 ISO against lefties this season is also well below the high-end .255 mark he posted across the past three years. Meanwhile, Kent has surrendered a healthy .215 ISO to right-handed hitters.

Nationals vs Dodgers weather

Clear skies and comfortable temperatures at Dodger Stadium tonight will offer excellent playing conditions, potentially giving a slight boost to ball carry for hitters.

Nationals vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Nationals 31.7% | Dodgers 73%
• Run line: Nationals +1.5 (48.8%) | Dodgers -1.5 (53.7%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (53.5%)

Nationals vs Dodgers trend

Los Angeles has hit the Under in eight of its last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info

Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries

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The Guardians announced today that they are designating Carlos Hernandez for assignment and bringing Austin Peterson up to the major league office.

Peterson is a 6 foot 6 right-hander, 26 years old and a 9th round pick in the 2022 draft. This year, in a tough environment for pitchers, he has put up a 4.27 FIP and a 9.6/3.2 K/BB% in Columbus. He has a six-pitch mix with a four-seamer, a cutter, a sinker, a slider, a curveball and a change-up. He has been throwing his slider the most at Triple-A at 27%, a four-seamer and sinker coming in for basically a second-place tie in frequency of use ratings.

I would like to see if Peterson can lower his 14% home run to fly ball rate outside of Columbus. If so, he can certainly be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. I hope he will be a piggy-back option with Logan Allen here in an hour so for game one of the doubleheader. While Peterson’s splits have been mostly even in the past, ij Triple-A, left-handed hitters have an OPS about 100 points higher than right-handed hitters do. So, it may be a good idea to bring Peterson in early today to face hopefully a good amount of right-handed hitters in the lineup to face lefty Logan Allen.

Welcome to Cleveland, Austin!

Two teams. One direction.

When the season began, there were some high expectations for the New York Mets, which had been remade in the offseason by their allegedly awesome President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns. For one brief moment in time, it seemed as though things were going to work out okay. After taking 3 of 4 in San Francisco back in April, the Mets were 6-4. But then, Juan Soto hit the IL and along with some other bad play, the Mets went just 41-60 through July. It has been a disastrous season.

In addition to the attendance loss, the Mets also have a different manager from the one who was leading the team in San Francisco back in May. Former Diamondback and one-time Met utility infielder Andy Green is now the manager.

When the season began, there were modest expectations for the San Francisco Giants, which was left largely untouched — basically, some flaps for wind resistance and some racing stripes — by their allegedly winning President of Baseball Operations, Buster Posey. There was never a brief moment in time when it seemed like things were going to turn around. The Giants haven’t won more than three games in a row all season.

Of course, Giants attendance is up and Tony Vitello is, unfortunately, staying put. Maybe that’s just credit to San Franciscans being generally more positive, less judgmental, and having lower expectations than New Yorkers.

Neither team came close to what was expected of them and both have played so badly that their futures are uncertain. For the true fans, both are just an offseason away from turning around their fortunes. But Mets fans have been saying that for decades now. Giants fans for a decade.

The Mets went 15-12 in August, though, so… maybe they’re setting themselves up to be better in 2027 (whenever that season actually begins)? For Giants fans, it’s about seeing which of the current players on the roster are able to play well enough to make themselves undeniable for the next roster and hoping that the farm system — which has famously been unable to produce quality talent for the MLB roster — can provide the next crop of mainstays.

The Mets are still in a better position than the Giants even in that respect, though, as the long summer of losing has still helped them figure out which of their young players are undeniable. 23-year old outfielder Carson Benge had a triple slash of .248/.312/.374 (.686) through his first 60 games of this season (234 PA), but has hit .300/.356/.454 (.810) since (320 PA / 74 G). He leads them team in wins above replacement (3.2 fWAR)!

24-year old catcher Francisco Alvarez has proven himself with another solid season. Brett Baty has affirmed himself as a utility player (78 wRC+, +0.3 fWAR) while Mark Vientos has probably played his way out of being in the team’s long-term plans (79 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR). Their youngish rotation fronted by 24-year olds righty Nolan McLean (3.0 fWAR in 27 starts) and lefty Zachary Thornton (0.9 fWAR in 11 starts) is off to a great start. The Mets have been middle of the pack all season in terms of their pitching (13.3 fWAR — 15th in MLB), but McClean, Thornton, and 27-year old Christian Scott (1.7 fWAR in 20 starts) have set them up to be even better in the future. They also have a solid bullpen (4.5 fWAR — 10th in MLB), helped in part by the recent move of Kodai Senga to the ‘pen (1.74 ERA in 10.1 IP since August 4th).

That group along with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette seems like a pretty strong foundation for a successful baseball team. The Giants are hoping to find a similar crop of young players to go with Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames.

There’s, of course, Bryce Eldridge, who is playing so well that it’s clear he should’ve been on the Opening Day roster. Drew Gilbert has played himself into a backup outfielder role. Jonah Cox is making the case that he should be the starting centerfielder. Turner Hill is having a nice moment, and the Giants seem to be pretty set at catcher given their soup of Daniel Susac, Drew Cavanaugh, etc. Meanwhile, Grant McCray and Osleivis Basabe seem like they’ve played their way out of long-term consideration.

This weekend’s pitching matchups will feature what the Mets have figured out versus what the Giants are still hoping to make work. If you sent “Matt Wilkinson and Anthony Molina will be starting for the Giants in games 1 & 2” back to Opening Night, you’d have imagined the Giants’ season going as poorly as it has. At the same time, with so many players on the 60-day IL and a preposterous number of DFAs expected this offseason, every pitcher has the chance to make his case with every successful inning. Tugboat’s not going anywhere with his three options and Anthony Molina is probably in a good position as well (he has 2 options remaining) — but, figuring out who’s a reliever and who’s a starter might be something this final month of the season helps determine.

But make no mistake, this is a battle of two laundry piles and both teams are trying to figure out how to sort the stained clothes, find which clothes are clean, which need to be donated, and which need to be repurposed as cleaning rags or thrown away (although, you’re not supposed to throw out clothes, I think).

The Mets are slightly better off when compared to the Giants, but if history’s any guide, that usually doesn’t mean much. This weekend might not feature much in the way of enjoyable baseball, but we might reasonably expect some silliness.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (58-83) at New York Mets (63-77)
Where: Citi Field | Flushing, New York
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Friday: Matt Wilkinson (LHP 0-2, 4.63 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP 10-8, 3.06 ERA)
Saturday: Anthony Molina (RHP 2-0, 3.77 ERA) vs. Zac Thornton (LHP 3-4, 2.93 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Christian Scott (RHP 4-4, 3.80 ERA)

Prediction time

The Giants will not be swept.

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Friday! The weekend has finally arrived. While some will be gearing up for Week 1 of college football, some of us will still be sweating out longballs.

Without further ado, here are my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight’s MLB slate, highlighted by Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone & Jordan Walker.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carter Jensen	18%
Jac Caglianone	19%
Jordan Walker	21%
💲Today's HR parlay	104.89x

Home run prediction: Carter Jensen (20%)

The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is the worst-rated pitcher in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset this evening. In that same dataset, Carter Jensen owns the third-highest matchup rating, behind only Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone.

Jensen has been tearing the cover off the baseball over his last 10 games, sporting a .914 SLG and .543 ISO while posting a 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.

Over his last 60 left-handed hitters, Taillon has allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .360 xBA, .597 xSLG and .388 xwOBA.

With the entire Royals lineup likely humming around Jensen, the home run upside is even more amplified.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (23%)

It was nearly impossible for me to pinpoint which Royal was in a better spot, so I took both Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.

The Royals’ young power hitters find themselves with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day, while covering nearly 100% of Taillon’s entire pitch mix. Through 30 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Caglianone has left the yard 22% of the time.

Across the big fella’s last 10 games, he sports a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

The entire Kansas City Royals lineup in a great spot, Jensen and Caglianone are the two that stood out the most.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jordan Walker (21%)

For this game being played at Coors Field, still getting a price around 20% is great, especially when backing a power hitter like St. Louis Cardinals big man Jordan Walker.

In his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, Walker has been creating a ton of hard contact while owning a .483 SLG and .207 ISO. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate, while producing just a 30% ground-ball rate.

Walker draws Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG to opposing hitters in his last three starts at home.

Hopefully, Walker can stay hot and connect with a weak offering from Feltner.

Take this down to 24%.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CARD

Best home run combo for September 4

Carter Jensen	Trade Now 104.89x
Jac Caglianone
Jordan Walker

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Max Fried is on the mound at Petco Park against a struggling San Diego team, so I'm riding with him as part of tonight's Yankees vs. Padres predictions.

The New York Yankees are narrow 53% favorites on Polymarket, and should be priced closer to 58% against a pitcher susceptible to the long ball — we're taking this value and running with it.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.

Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (53%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Walker Buehler has coughed up three long balls across his last two starts and will be in trouble against a New York Yankees team looking to deliver the San Diego Padres their eighth loss in their last 11 games.

The ever-entertaining Jazz Chisholm Jr. will likely be the offensive catalyst tonight — he's 6-for-10 with two homers against Buehler in his career (.356 xBA). On the mound for the pinstripes is Max Fried, who's allowed just three earned runs across his last 21 1/3 innings pitched.

What does this all add up to? A Yankees W.

I'd play this up to 58 cents.

COVERS INTEL: Just how good has Fried been this season? He's rocking career lows in xERA (2.50), xBA (.198), and xSLG (.262). Not bad.

Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (53%)

Aside from Chisholm, Buehler actually has a nice history against the Yankees, striking them out at a 30% clip while limiting them to a .229 xBA. I just don't see him outdueling Fried in this one, especially since the Padres own just a .691 OPS against lefties. 

The trends are on our side in this one, too, as both teams are a top-six Under team in baseball, hitting at a 54% clip or better this season.

Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Trent Grisham (15%)

Trent Grisham hasn't shown his power stroke in a handful of weeks, but he's in a good spot against Buehler. 

Not only does Grisham have two career homers against him, but Buehler has been missing his spots recently, allowing three bombs over his last two starts.

Grisham will look to sit on Buehler's changeup, a pitch he's given up five homers on this season. At 15%, you have to hit the button here — I'm playing this at 0.2 units. Let's fire him up with confidence. 

Yankees vs Padres weather

It's a perfect night for baseball in San Diego, with sunny skies and temperatures sitting at 72 degrees Fahrenheit.

Yankees vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 53% | Padres 48%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (39%) | Padres +1.5 (62%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)

Yankees vs Padres trend

The Under is 5-0 in New York's last five interleague games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.

How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

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Returning from the Bay with a disappointing series split but a 0.5 game lead over the Padres for the final Wild Card spot, the Diamondbacks would welcome the red hot Philadelphia Phillies into town for a quick 3 game homestand where they would look to add to their Wild Card lead over San Diego while also closing the gap between them and the Cubs/Phillies for the 2nd and 1st place spots.

The Snakes would be getting some reinforcements back to start the series as 2nd baseman Ketel Marte would be activated off the IL and play his first game since the series in Atlanta and the first one since the whole Marte saga was all the media would want to talk about for 2+ weeks.

The Dbacks would wind up dropping the series against Philly while struggling at the dish the entire time, Wednesday’s 1-0 win saved them from a sweep at the hands of the Phils but also gave them back their 0.5 game lead over the Padres after they dropped 2 of 3 in Cincy.

Lifeless Offense

A topic that is becoming all to familiar when discussing the 2026 Arizona DIamondbacks is their lack of clutch hitting abilities with runners in scoring position, and sadly that would be another issue that reared its ugly head in these 3 games as the Diamondbacks would not have a single hit with RISP (0-17) and would score just single run in each game. A big part of the lack of offense throughout this series can be attributed to the top 3 in the lineup in Geraldo Perdommo, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno basically disappearing and all combined to go 5-35 with only 1 walk.

It’s been no secret that Carroll and Perdomo have both had their struggles in 2026 (Perdomo did show signs of that turning around as he had a monster month of August) but the best hitter for the Diamondbacks for seemingly the last 2 months in Gabriel Moreno being limited to 2 hits was something that I’d guess most of us weren’t expecting.

Big Game…Bullpen?

In my years of being a DIamondbacks fan (24 of the 28 that I can actually remember at least) I have seen some bullpen arms have a solid season or two (Papa Grande, Putz, David Hernandez, Ziegler etc) but they would be one of the few reliable arms to call upon where I wouldn’t have an “oh boy…here we go” feeling as they came in for relief. The 2026 D’Backs bullpen on the other hand has been nearly the complete opposite, as Mike Hazen has put together the best bullpen he has had in his entire time as the Diamondbacks GM.

Previous years I would have heard “tomorrow is going to be a bullpen game” and my excitement would be drained almost instantly (Maybe I was still having flashbacks to Joe Mantiply starting game 4 of the 2023 World Series), but Wednesday’s masterclass from the pen arms, where they would allow just 3 hits, 2 walks while striking out 9 showed why a lot of us fans haven’t had the doom and despair mindset in regards to this bullpen for most of the year. As of the writing of this article, the Diamondbacks have a total of 8 relievers in their bullpen with an ERA below 3.00 (some of them have been in smaller sample sizes like Dennis Santana,  Derek Law or Justin Martinez but hey 8 sounds better than 5). 

Gabe wanted to give his unsung hero recognition to Brandyn Garcia and what he can provide for this team out of the pen in any situation, whether it’s the 7th against a tough lefty or in the 9th to close out a save situation. Brandon on the other hand believed that Morillo and his consecutive scoreless streak of 17 straight outings earned him the recognition, saying that while every outing hasn’t been the smoothest of rides he has been one of the most reliable arms all throughout 2026. I personally went with Taylor Clarke specifically because of his ability to be used in any situation from being an opener, to being middle relief or even being called upon for more high leverage outings later in games.

Midtember Call Ups

September 1st is the time of year when MLB rosters expand from their usual 26 players to 28 for the final month of the season. For most teams this means that fans might get to see their top young prospects finally get the call to the big league level and either get them excited for the next season (if their team is already out of the playoff race) or maybe even see if they can get an extra spark to ignite their push for October, but us Diamondbacks fans get to see Blake Walston and Lourdes Gurriel Jr  as our additions to the roster.

Instead of seeing young names like Spencer Giesting, Yu-Min Lin, Ashton Izzi or heck even Kristian Robinson get the call and maybe add a little juice to this team that could use any extra boost it can get, we got treated to a soft tossing left handed pitcher in Walston and an outfielder that could barely even seem to hit Triple A pitching as of late.

Blake Walston was a former 1st round draft pick (26th overall in 2019) by the organization but has struggled to really develop as a pitcher (I’ll take 500 for “Least Shocking News” please) and has also dealt with injuries along the way. He doesn’t seem to have much life on his fastball and in this day and age of baseball, MLB hitters aren’t going to be fooled often by 89-90 MPH fastballs. Lourdes on the other hand is now the 7th Outfielder on the roster along with Carroll, Lawlar, Nootbar, Barossa, Waldschmidt and Kepler (Kepler has to have some kind of blackmail on this team, I have no idea how he’s still on this roster) and struggled heavily during his rehab in Triple A Reno, slashing just .107/.182/.107 in his 28 AB’s. 

The three of us all had the same level of disappointment and confusion in regards to these moves, as Gurriel will only be taking AB’s away from the young outfielders in Lawlar and Waldschmidt, while Blake Walston seems to be another draft pick from the early Hazen era that they refuse to give up on and mark as a failed first round pick.

Heading Down to H-Town

With this disappointing but somewhat successful (Didn’t lose any ground to the Padres in the WC at least) series against the Phillies, the Diamondbacks would get ready to head to the Lone Star State to take on the Al West leading Houston Astros and former Diamondbacks in Christian Walker and Dalton Varsho. While yes the Astros are a division leading team, they are only in that position due to the American League West (and most of the AL in general) being mediocre at best on most days. 

The fellas and I agreed that this is a series that the Diamondbacks should be able to at minimum win with the potential to sweep and could be a great time for the Snakes offense to wake up again as the Astros have the 3rd worst ERA for any starting staff in all of MLB. The Astros do have some pop in Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, but outside of them the rest of the Houston lineup is filled with hitters that have sub .700 OPS’s on the year, so it could be the best chance for some of our struggling starters to turn it around and then hand it over to the bullpen to hopefully lock it down.