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2026 MLB Draft Preview: AJ Gracia scouting report.

The 2026 is less than a week away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at University of Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia.

AJ Gracia is a 6’3”, 195 lb. lefthanded hitting outfielder at the University of Virginia. Coming out of high school in New Jersey in 2023, Gracia was in the back half of the BA top 500 draft list that year but went undrafted. He spent two years at Duke before transferring to Virginia when his coach at Duke took the Virginia job. Gracia turns 22 in October.

Gracia is a well-rounded hitter with quality pitch recognition and excellent contact rates. He rarely chases out of the strike zone — Baseball America calls him “hyper-selective” — and set a school record for walks at Duke in his sophomore season. He is strong and makes good contact with a swing that’s described as “uphill,” but his exit velocities aren’t as impressive as you’d like to see. He has above-average raw power that translate well into game power due to his contact ability. He’s also seen as being able to potentially add some power going forward.

Gracia played right field for Duke as a freshman, and has primarily been a center fielder the past two seasons. However, he’s not considered a particularly strong defender, and there’s a very good likelihood he ends up having to move to a corner outfield spot, though MLB Pipeline says his “excellent instincts and efficient routes” give him a chance to stick in center. His arm is underpowered for right field, so if he does have to move off out of center field, he will probably end up in left field. His speed and his arm both get 45 grades from BA and MLB Pipeline.

As a freshman, Gracia slashed .305/.440/.559 with 48 walks against 55 Ks in 278 plate appearances, with 14 homers. His sophomore season saw him slash .293/.449/.558 in 285 plate appearances, with 15 homers, 57 walks and 36 Ks. This year for Virginia — still in the ACC — he slashed .354/.489/.632 in 272 plate appearances, homering 14 times, drawing 47 walks and striking out 38 times.

Baseball America has Gracia at #15 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Gracia at #19 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Gracia at #27 on his top 150 list. Keith Law has Gracia at #22 on his board. Fangraphs has Gracia at #2 on their board. Baseball Prospectus has Gracia at #16 on their top 30 draft board.

In the June 8 Baseball America mock draft, Carlos Collazo has Condon going to the Astros at #17, though he’s mentioned as a possibility with a number of teams before then, beginning with the Orioles at #7. The BA staff draft on June 15 has Gracia going to the Marlins at #14. The BA mock draft 5.0 of June 29 has Gracia going to the Diamondbacks at #15, though he’s also mentioned with a half-dozen other teams ahead of them. The BA staff draft 4.0 on July 6 has Gracia going to the Cardinals at #13. Jonathan Mayo’s June 11 mock draft has Gracia going to the Astros at #17. Jim Callis’s June 18 mock draft has Gracia mocked to the Cardinals at #13. The June 25 Callis/Mayo mock has Gracia going to the D-Backs at #15. Jonathan Mayo’s July 2 mock draft has Gracia going to the Rockies at #10. Law’s June 10 mock draft Gracia going to the Cubs at #23. Law’s July 6 mock has Gracia going to the Mariners at #24. Kiley McDaniel’s June 18 mock draft does not have Gracia going in the first 40 picks.

Gracia seems likely to go somewhere in the teens, and could well be off the board when the Rangers pick. Texas would have to really like his contact ability and plate discipline, though the lack of upper end exit velocities doesn’t necessarily fit what they are looking for in a position player.

Gracia’s future likely hinges on his ability to generate more power going forward. If a team thinks that there’s more exit velocity they can tap into, or that will come as he fills out, he’s got value as a guy who would offer above-average OBPs and above-average power. If not, his defensive limitations and lack of speed make him limited as far as major league value is concerned.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Justin Lebron

Cameron Flukey

Derek Curiel

Hunter Dietz

Logan Hughes

Carson Wiggins

Peyton Bonds

Ace Reese

Sawyer Strosnider

Gio Rojas

Chris Rembert

Jack Natili

Andrew Williamson

Trevor Condon

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The San Diego Padres were blown out by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the series opener of this NL West battle.

My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the home team to respond in Game 2.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-125)

Neither offense is potent against right-handed pitching, but the San Diego Padres are in better form. They are +1.6 weighted runs above average vs. righties over the last month, while the Arizona Diamondbacks come in at -12.4.

The Padres have potential for a ceiling performance against Zac Gallen, who has posted a 5.85 xERA or worse in seven consecutive starts — and conceded at least four runs in six of them.

If German Marquez can pitch an inning or two, Johnny Brito and his extreme ground-ball profile in the minors should help him survive. Bet this to -135.

COVERS INTEL: Zac Gallen has been one of the league's worst pitchers, ranking in the second percentile in pitcher run value.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 9 (-105)

These offenses are nothing to write home about, and I’m not sure it matters. The pitching is that poor.

Gallen has posted a 7.24 ERA over his past 12 starts, conceding an average of 4.6 runs when he takes the bump. Only once during that stretch did he allow fewer than three runs.

The Padres are going with Marquez as an opener, a minor leaguer in bulk, then turning to a bullpen that ranks dead last in FIP over the past two weeks.

I like the Over and would play it to -115.

Diamondbacks vs Padres weather

Temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s with winds blowing east. This weather shouldn't be impactful one way or the other. 

Diamondbacks vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +105 | Padres -125
• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Diamondbacks vs Padres trend

The Diamondbacks have only cashed the moneyline in 14 of their last 35 games for -8.45 units and a -21% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info

Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries

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For a team in a position where every win matters, continuing to hand away games simply cannot continue.

At some point, every branch will break. The branch carrying Mike Burrows on the Astros broke yesterday.

Staked to a 6-1 lead, Burrows proceeded to hand it all back in the 3rd inning, giving up a 5 spot as fans (and likely teammates) watched in horror as Burrows continues to get banged around the yard. He wasn’t fooling anyone, his manager Joe Espada admitted in the post game, lamenting Burrows inability to get a swing and miss with either his fastball or his changeup.

Burrows fastball has been the stuff of legend this season, for all the wrong reasons. It has been among the worst pitches in baseball this season. The league is batting .309 with an incredible .721 SLG vs Burrows 4-seam. He did not get a single swing and miss on 18 4-seamers yesterday against the Nationals. That is astounding. Astoundingly awful.

After 94.2 IP this season, Burrows is now 4-9 with a 5.99 ERA. That is the highest ERA for any Astros pitcher after 50 innings in the Astros uniform ever. Worse than Colton Gordon (5.95). Worse that Frances Martes (5.80). Worse than the Traitorous Rat Fink who shall not be named (5.22).

This isn’t “early struggles” anymore. This is broken.

That doesn’t mean Burrows cannot be fixed. As Espada so often reminds us, he is a young pitcher, and his stuff is there. The Astros Lab, which has made countless pitchers far more effective in a short period of time, has thus far been unable to solve the riddle of Burrows.

This far into the season, those riddles need to be solved in the minors.

Houston cannot in good conscience continue to send Burrows out every 5th to 6th day, and look the rest of the team in the yes and say they are committed to winning. Burrows is now a reclamation project.

Perhaps if this were not the 3rd straight year in which the Astros pitching staff had been beset by a plethora of injuries, things would be a little different. Maybe he would feel less pressure. Alas, that isn’t the reality in Houston.

To have seen Burrows be so thoroughly dominant in Spring Training and so abjectly awful in the regular season is also a point of frustration.

Yes, there was a point in time where Burrows was grading as an “unlucky” pitcher. The issue with that is he would give up an unlucky hit or two, and then groove one that got blasted into the seats with alarming regularity.

Where is the bulldog? Where is the desire to battle back?

Too often it seems Burrows simply melts down when there are men on base. It happened again yesterday, in the 3rd inning when he surrendered 5 runs without recording an out. He then allowed a leadoff homer in the 5th, and loaded the bases with one out before being lifted.

He put 11 men on base in 4.1 innings, he also committed an error.

By the time the 5th inning was over, Burrows allowed 10 runs, 7 earned. The Astros 6-1 lead had become a 12-6 deficit, one they would not be able to overcome in a 12-11 loss.

6-1 leads should be automatic.

This was the 10th start in which Burrows allowed at least 4 earned runs. He’s made 17 total starts. That is nearly 60% of his starts, the Astros need at least 5 runs to win. Houston is 2-8 is those 10 starts.

The Astros have been patient enough. Espada continues to speak in a coddling manner of him, always mentioning he is a young pitcher, and they need to put him in good situations. Is a 6-1 lead not a good situation?

The time has come and the time is now.

Cristian Javier is on the active roster. Lance McCullers Jr. and Ronel Blanco are both making what could be their final rehab appearances tonight for Sugar Land, in which they could both be looking at 70-75 pitches (they each threw 60 pitches in their last rehab starts). Ethan Pecko was just named PCL pitcher of the month after posting a 2.48 ERA in 29 IP with a 20/6 K/BB ratio.

All of them are better options than Burrows. Considering the Astros have relied on pitchers coming back from injury in the second half each of the past two seasons with suboptimal results, it is likely important to assess what you can expect from McCullers and Blanco (and later Hayden Wesneski, who isn’t far behind either of them) so that they don’t potentially make that mistake again this season. Houston needs to assess it’s needs at starting pitcher over the next few weeks leading to the trade deadline, because it already knows it needs a lefthanded outfield bat.

Houston has shown there is a limit to it’s patience with players they have invested in (time or money) this season when they recently demoted CF Jake Meyers. Meyers has been on the team since 2021, and they have tolerated awful offense from him before. That patience finally wore out, and centerfield has been turned over to the platoon of Taylor Trammell and Brice Matthews.

They need to do the same now with Burrows. Cut your losses. Quarterize the wound. Get him right at Sugar Land.

Maybe he comes back later in the year. Maybe he comes back next year. Maybe the deal winds up being a bust.

Should Mike Burrows be optioned is no longer a maybe. It’s a necessity. Time is up.

On Monday, ahead of their entertaining blowout victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, the San Francisco Giants released a bunch of medical updates for their injured players.

Perhaps most important is that third baseman Matt Chapman, who is dealing with an abdominal strain, was set to re-join the team on Monday, and will be re-evaluated. The Giants aren’t giving a timeline, but it seems likely that his return date will be the first game out of the All-Star break, which is on July 17.

Catcher Daniel Susac, who has a lower back strain, has started his swing progression, and is throwing up to 105 feet. He’ll start running later this week, so he’s still a little ways away, but not too far.

Center fielder Harrison Bader, who has left plantar fasciitis, took batting practice yesterday and will run today. The Giants will take it very carefully with him, but he’s at least trending in the right direction.

Lefty reliever Matt Gage, who left a game over the weekend with an elbow strain, had an MRI yesterday and was set to be re-evaluated. It unfortunately looks likely that Tommy John surgery is in his future.

Righty reliever Joel Peguero, who has been rehabbing his left hamstring strain in Arizona, is set to throw a live batting practice session today. Hopefully he can kick off a rehab assignment soon. Fellow righty reliever José Buttó is throwing four times a week, and up to 75 feet. It seems unlikely that he’ll pitch again this season, though.

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The Athletics visit the Detroit Tigers tonight as they look to take advantage of Tarik Skubal's struggles. 

My Athletics vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks are expecting the A's to jump on Skubal as they continue to hit the ball hard. 

Who will win A's vs Tigers today: A's moneyline (+158)

Tarik Skubal hasn’t looked like his dominant self lately. The Detroit Tigers lefty owns a 5.04 FIP over the last month while allowing 2.82 HR/9. Although opponents have only a 31.5% hard-hit rate during that span, his 13% barrel rate is concerning.

That could be problematic against an Athletics offense producing a 47.5% hard-hit rate over its last five games while averaging five runs per contest.

J.T. Ginn has been inconsistent, posting a 5.28 FIP over his last two starts, but opponents own just a 33.3% hard-hit rate against him. Ginn doesn’t need to dominate here, but he can keep Detroit within reach.

I'll play this pick down to +110. 

COVERS INTEL: Tarik Skubal has been worse at home, posting a 3.89 FIP compared to a 2.65 mark on the road. 

A's vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)

This certainly doesn't profile to be a pitcher's duel. We're looking at two offenses swinging it incredibly well, and both starters have also been vulnerable to the long ball lately. 

Detroit's lineup has a .212 ISO over the last week while carrying a 41% hard-hit rate. The A's offense, as previously mentioned, is also in good form.

This Tigers bullpen is also a concern when Skubal does exit, posting a 5.99 FIP across their last 16.1 innings. As for the Athletics pen, they've been even worse, compiling a horrible 7.32 FIP over their last 22.1 frames. 

We should see runs tonight, and I'd play this pick up to -110. 

A's vs Tigers weather

Conditions should be favorable at Comerica Park tonight, with clear skies and temperatures hovering in the upper 70s throughout the game. Humidity will sit around 68% to 73%, while winds remain light at roughly 6 to 8 mph. With virtually no chance of rain, delays aren't a concern, and the warm conditions could provide a slight boost to ball carry without creating a major weather edge.

A's vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: A's +163 | Tigers -170
• Run line: A's +1.5 (-127) | Tigers -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

A's vs Tigers trend

The Athletics have cashed the moneyline in 22 of their last 40 road games for +7.50 units and a 18% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Tigers.

How to watch A's vs Tigers and game info

A's vs Tigers latest injuries

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Joe Espada was dealt a rough hand before Monday’s series opener against the Washington Nationals.

He was sending one of Major League Baseball’s worst starting pitchers, Mike Burrows, to the mound against one of the game’s best lineups with only a five-man bullpen at his disposal.

Josh Hader and Bryan King were unavailable after pitching on both Saturday and Sunday. Cristian Javier also wasn’t available after throwing two innings Saturday in his first relief appearance since Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS.

That left Espada with AJ Blubaugh; Steven Okert, whose 43 appearances rank fourth in the majors after pitching in two of three games against the Rays; Enyel De Los Santos, who had allowed runs in five of his previous six outings; the wildly inconsistent Nate Pearson; and someone claiming to be Bryan Abreu.

Espada needed a good outing from Burrows, or at the very least a long outing. He got neither. Burrows allowed five runs in the third inning after being handed a 6-1 lead. He got through the fourth without allowing a run. Desperate to avoid his depleted bullpen, Espada sent Burrows back to the mound in the fifth. He surrendered his 21st home run of the season on his third pitch, then retired just one of the next four hitters before Espada had seen enough.

Burrows owns a 5.99 ERA through his first 18 games (17 starts) as an Astro. Only Arizona’s Zac Gallen has been worse among qualified pitchers. Bad luck and poor defense were legitimate excuses for a rough start to the season, but he has a 6.98 ERA over his last nine starts with a 6.55 FIP, so yes, he’s been that bad.

The Astros hoped Burrows could occupy a top spot in their rotation for five years when they acquired him from the Pirates in December. While it seems unlikely right now, he could still reach that potential. But for the good of everyone involved, the Astros need to send Burrows to Sugar Land—or maybe even West Palm Beach.

It would give Burrows an opportunity to work on things in a low-pressure environment. It would also allow Javier, who looked good on Saturday, to move back to the rotation, which would give Espada a bullpen arm he can use on back-to-back days. 

The Astros are just 1 ½ games back of Texas for the American League’s final wild card, and the AL West remains in reach. The team sent Burrows to the bullpen last month for what Espada called “a breather.” It lasted one turn through the rotation. He needs more than a breather right now, and with Javier back and Ronel Blanco and Lance McCullers Jr. on the way, the Astros can afford to do that now.