Marcus Semien | (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images)
Meet the Mets
The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon as they attempt to snap an alarming eight-game losing streak.
Apr 15, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Tanner Gordon delivers a pitch during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
While there were several surprises on the Opening Day roster for the Rockies in 2026, the biggest — and most disappointing in my opinion — was Tanner Gordon being optioned to Triple-A on March 17.
Even though Gordon’s numbers weren’t amazing on the surface in 2025, when he posted an ERA of 6.33 in 15 starts with a 1.50 WHIP in 75 .1 innings, his growth and potential were notable. He threw seven quality starts, including in five of his last seven starts with 62 strikeouts and a 6-8 record, which helped build his confidence. The Rockies went 7-8 when Gordon was on the mound, giving Colorado a .466 winning percentage compared to their .265 mark on the season.
Not only was Gordon’s performance in 2025 enough to be a strong contender for the starting rotation in 2026, but he then also continued to make a strong case in spring training. In Scottsdale, Gordon went 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in four appearances (three starts) with 12 strikeouts and only two walks in 11 innings, while also working on new pitches and refining his arsenal.
Regardless, Gordon started the season in Triple-A Albuquerque and continued to find success. In three starts, Gordon went 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 15 strikeouts and four walks in 16.1 innings. That’s why I was so thrilled to hear Gordon was called back up to the 26-man roster — where he belongs — on Tuesday.
Considering the early injuries to Jose Quintana and Kyle Freeland, and the early struggles of Michael Lorenzen and Ryan Feltner, the Rockies rotation needs help. Thus far, the Rockies bullpen has been impressive in long relief appearances from Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela, but having a four-man rotation is not a sustainable model for the Rockies. We know the bullpen will be asked to enter many games in the fifth and sixth innings, and they can’t be doing bullpen days every fifth game on top of that.
That’s why Gordon deserves a spot in the rotation — and not down the road, either. The Rockies need to put Gordon in the rotation now.
Gordon provided dominating evidence of why he belongs in the Big Leagues in his 2026 debut on Wednesday against the Houston Astros. When Quintana didn’t have his best stuff and was lucky to only give up three runs in 3.2 innings of work, the Rockies turned to Jaden Hill to finish the fourth and then Gordon to finish the game. The 29-year-old RHP held Houston’s high-powered offense to two hits in four scoreless innings. He walked one batter and struck out four, including three straight sent down swinging in the sixth inning.
When you dig deeper, Gordon’s performance is even more impressive. Forty of his 60 pitches were strikes, demonstrating the ability to hammer the strike zone, which is a core pitching pillar for Rockies pitching coach Alon Liechman. In addition, he mixed his pitches expertly, mainly relying on a four-seam fastball (45%), but sprinkling in his slider (30%), curveball (13%) and changeup (12%).
“I had a little bit more adrenaline coming out of the ‘pen,” Gordon told Jeremy Rakes of MLB.com. “Close ballgame. There’s a bunch of different factors. The fastball was feeling good. I was riding on that.”
After the game, Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer was pleased with Gordon’s debut.
“The vert was good. TG was awesome today. First time in the big leagues this year. That’s exactly what we saw in spring training. For him to carry it out like that in a big-time game like that — very impressive, and he just fits right in with the rest of the boys out there.”
The vert was indeed good.
Insanely good.
The vert, aka induced vertical break (IVB), which measures the vertical movement generated by a pitcher’s spin (backspin or topspin), excluding the effect of gravity, was working for Gordon. Baseball Savant’s graphics break it down nicely.
Gordon was getting 17.9 inches of rise, which is an increase from the 14.4 inches he averaged last year.
For comparison, Dodger pitcher Alex Vesia leads MLB in IVB with his four-seam fastball at 21.8 inches. Gordon is ranked No. 72, which is the best for Colorado (Quintana is next at No. 121 at 17 inches).
The movement helped Gordon strike out Joey Loperfido, Nick Allen and Brice Matthews on nearly identical four-seamers that were up and in. They all came on the rising four-seamer. Even though it’s a small sample size, Gordon registered a 47.4 Whiff% on his four-seamer and a 28.6 Whiff% with his slider. Gordon’s velocity didn’t overpower hitters, as his four-seam fastball averaged 94.6 mph, but the deception was palpable.
Having lost seven of their last eight games and heading into a homestand where the Rockies are hosting the Dodgers and Padres, the Colorado pitching staff needs help.
Tanner Gordon is an arm that could help deliver it.
The City Comets jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but the Isotopes rallied back with a four-run eighth to complete the comeback win. Vimael Machín hit two doubles and walked to drive in three runs, Blaine Crim hit two RBI singles, Adael Amador and Chad Stevens each added three hits, one run and one RBI and Drew Avans chipped in two hits and one run for Isotopes. Albuquerque totaled 14 hits. Gabriel Hughes had a rough start, giving up four runs on nine hits in three innings, but Patrick Weigel gave up only one run in the following 4.2 innings and Sammy Peralta put up a perfect 1.1 innings for the win.
Cole Messina hit a two-run homer, Andy Perez hit an RBI double and Dyan Jorge added an RBI single as the Yard Goats fought off a late comeback to win on Thursday night. Carlos Torres threw two scoreless innings to earn the win and Davison Palermo put up a scoreless ninth for the save in Hartford’s win.
In a back-and-forth contest, Vancouver came out on top with a four-run 10th inning to win on Thursday in extra innings. The Canadians scored first, taking a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. Spokane rallied back with a five-run sixth inning to take a 5-3 lead. In the frame, Jacob Humphrey hit a two-run double to start it off and the Indians tied it up when Tommy Hopfe scored on a wild pitch. Alan Espinal walked in a run to help Spokane take the lead and then Kelvin Hidalgo scored on a fielding error for an insurance run.
As it turns out, it wasn’t enough as Vancouver’s Carter Cunningham hit a two-run homer in the ninth to send the game to extra innings. That’s when things got worse and Tucker Toman hit a grand slam in the top of the 10th for the win. Max Belyeu hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th, but it wasn’t enough for another comeback.
Matt Klein hit the game-winning, RBI single in the top of the 10th, while Seth Clausen pitched a scoreless ninth for the win and Austin Emener struck out to in a perfect 10th to earn the save for the Grizzlies. Kyle Fossum and Derek Bernard each hit solo homers for Fresno. JB Middleton gave up two runs in five innings in the start for the Grizzlies and Ethan Cole added 3.2 scoreless innings before Clausen entered the game.
This isn’t your average Rockies story. Apparently, there were more than six drone sightings around Coors Field during Opening Day weekend against the Phillies. While no one has been arrested, the Federal Aviation Administration and FBI issued a warning to keep drones away from the stadium because they violate safety rules. The warning was issued as the Rockies are set to begin a seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Padres today.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MARCH 25: A general view of the field during the game between the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The San Francisco Giants are on the road again this weekend, so we’re going to do another temp check. Which is maybe not ideal timing after the week that was, but I feel like they could maybe benefit from the feedback of the fanbase at this point.
This team is not fun to watch and the season has only just barely begun. I’d like to say “small sample size” but this is just about exactly what I expected from them this year given the lack of any significant improvements over the off-season and the seemingly delusional way in which they view themselves as being competitive in a division that has long since left them behind.
As someone with tickets to a game next weekend, if it weren’t for the special event taking place at said game, I would absolutely be considering donating my tickets. It’s a lot to ask from fans to fork out the money for tickets, food, and (in the case of non-local fans) transportation and lodging to watch…this. Especially given the astronomical rise in prices for everything under the sun at the moment.
And listen, I’m not asking for the moon. I know they are highly unlikely to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers any time soon. And that’s okay. Not in my heart, but in my brain. I get that that is how it goes sometimes.
But I would ask that they at least be honest with the fans. Admit that they’re in a period of development or rebuilding or whatever, and then actually commit to that. I can respect that. I can even enjoy that. There is a lot of fun to be had in terrible baseball. I should know! I started covering this team in the second half of 2016 after all, when they were constantly discovering new and demoralizing ways to lose games.
But you know the expression “don’t spit on my leg and tell me it’s raining?” Well, don’t tell us you’re fielding a competitive baseball team with playoff ambitions and then send the circus out onto the field. It’s insulting to the intelligence of everyone involved and sucks any fun that could possibly be had out of the equation.
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants begin their three-game road series against the Washington Nationals this afternoon at 3:45 p.m. PT.
It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.
It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year. Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side. They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”. Good question.
Yet, teams are doing these deals. Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets. Not just one or two rogue groups, either. What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do? As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.
Some notes about contracts
Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:
Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).
Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract. I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing. I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac. I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.
The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market
One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market. It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical. A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons. Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:
Tier
Player
Avg $ per WAR
1
0-1 WAR
$6.75m
2
1-2 WAR
$8.5m
3
Over 2 WAR
$12.8m
Produced by VEB alumni Ben Clemons
Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb. First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal. $700m contract. 10 years. $70m AAV. If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded). Interesting. Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3. I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3.
Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract. $175m contract. 5 years. $35m AAV. Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded.
So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR? Seems backwards in a way, given the players. And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.
An alternative way to compare contracts
A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines).
Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:
Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV)
That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR. At least, that is what I’m proposing.
Some more about baseball economics – net present value
One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract. It’s not really $700m in today’s terms. A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s. When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m. That’s a bit different than $700m. Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates.
Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions
A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts. There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values. I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.
Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability. Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson. Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.
Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?
I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama. Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions. Approximately 7 per year. How many have occurred this year? Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal. Not exactly a stampede, huh?
What do Pre-Arb deals look like?
As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics. Almost like there is a playbook on this.
The most common age for signing is age 24.
Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars).
The usual baseball premiums apply. Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin. Relievers are the street sweepers.
Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers).
Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.
Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.
Interpreting the Chart
This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions. Each contract is a point on the chart. All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms. I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals). The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions.
The red points are the FA contracts. Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract. Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.
The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020. Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?
The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms.
What is with that arc drawn in the middle?
This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else. FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani. PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco. Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.
Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:
The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
The length of contracts, however, are comparable.
In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract. While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low. As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise.
What about inside the arc?
These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents. Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference.
When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:
The contracts inside the arc are not so unique. Almost cookie cutter.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
The length of FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter. This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.
What do these contracts accomplish?
For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player.
The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years. Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr. Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations. Then they lose the player to free agency. If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years). Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.
For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player. First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team. For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.
How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?
If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool. They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract. Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length. Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime. How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?
What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?
These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.
For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR. Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR. That is for a 4-5 WAR player. Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract. For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR. But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure. They did it with years.
The key is the AAV and length. $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable. What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10th or 20th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker. Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years.
The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani. We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline.
A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years. 2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m. Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player. The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more. We call it “upside”. The money guys call it “surplus value”. Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll. That’s what makes it smart.
For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.
First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years. The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player.
Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation. As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.
Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well. This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player. And yet again avoids the decline years.
When is it not smart to do this?
Pitchers. They break. See Stridor, Spencer.
Older players. If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Low ceiling players. The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial. They need to discern who really can reach star heights. There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star.
High risk players. Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial. A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.
Who plays on this field?
Interestingly, most teams participate. In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension. Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals.
The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently? They fit into 2 neat categories. Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets. The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins. The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.
Would they? Should they?
Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions. They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3rd and final pre-arb year. If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration. Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.
JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model. 23 years old. Projected star. Less than 1 year of service time. The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.
If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.
If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 16: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) stands on the mound after pitching eighth no-hit innings to start the ninth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians on April 16, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Guardians got a big opening series win vs. The Orioles last night, featuring fans getting excited about Parker Messick and worried about Cade Smith.
Here’s Zack Meisel’s recap of the no-hit bid from Messick. He extolled Austin Hedges’ work behind the plate:
Stephen Vogt talked a little about Cade’s struggles:
“I think Cades still not 100% where he needs to be, and he knows that… their at bats off him tonight were unbelievable”#Guardians manager Stephen Vogt on Cade Smith’s outing#GuardsBall x @WEWSpic.twitter.com/2PUq0oF93z
There are plenty of recent Stanley Cup winners in the field, such as the Vegas Golden Knights (2023), Colorado Avalanche (2022) and Tampa Bay Lightning (2020, 2021).
And there are teams that are back in the hunt after long absences, such as the Buffalo Sabres, Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins.
So who survives the four-round grind and gets to skate around the ice with the Stanley Cup in June? USA TODAY's Mike Brehm, Jace Evans and Kevin Skiver make their predictions:
Stanley Cup Final: Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup winner: Colorado Avalanche
Playoff MVP: Nathan MacKinnon
Yes, I know that the Presidents' Trophy winner rarely wins the Stanley Cup, but this Avalanche team is deep and has run the gauntlet before. The same applies to the Lightning. Both teams are coached by Stanley Cup winners who know how to push the right buttons. The Avalanche will prevail again in a rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
Jace Evans, USA TODAY
Stanley Cup Final: Montreal Canadiens vs. Edmonton Oilers
Stanley Cup winner: Edmonton Oilers
Playoff MVP: Connor McDavid
Canada, rejoice! Your drought will end! Or, I think it will, anyways. Yes, I am putting a lot of faith in the Connor Ingram (or Tristan Jarry!) Experience in net, but I am also putting my faith in Connor McDavid, the best player in the NHL. He just wrapped up his sixth scoring title and has led the playoffs in scoring three of the past four seasons. He's a proven postseason performer in the prime of his career. You could say the same for Leon Draisaitl, assuming he's on the verge of a return. The biggest factor for Edmonton, though, might be its potential postseason path — the Pacific Division road is the smoothest, on paper.
Kevin Skiver, USA TODAY
Stanley Cup Final: Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup winner: Dallas Stars
Playoff MVP: Mikko Rantanen
The Stars have been knocking on the door in the playoffs for a while, but something in the West has continued to hold them back. This year, they harness that experience and get over the hump to win the Stanley Cup, overcoming a Lightning team with a wealth of experience itself.
Since Montreal Canadiens’ sniper Cole Caufield climbed up the goal scorer list to eventually come short of catching up to Colorado Avalanche ace Nathan MacKinnon, who currently has 53 goals with one game to play, there have been a lot of comments about the nature of the Rocket Richard Trophy winner-to-be’s goals. Many have lamented the fact that the leading scorer has eight empty-netters to his name this season, while Caufield has none.
If empty netters were removed from the equation, the Habs’ leading goal scorer would be first in the league with 51 goals, followed by MacKinnon with 45 goals, and a pair of Dallas Stars forwards, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, who both have 44 goals.
While that’s an interesting stat, it just doesn’t matter. The Rocket Richard trophy was created to reward the league’s top scorer, the player who got the puck across the goal line the most times. Whichever way you look at it, that’s the way it’s defined in the NHL, and there had never been chatter about taking empty netters out of the equation before this season.
Whichever way you score a goal, it’s a goal, and it counts, as long as it’s in the game. The same cannot be said about the shootout, but that’s a whole different animal since it’s not during an actual game, but rather in what amounts to a one-on-one duel.
While an argument can be made about empty netters being easier to score, the same could probably be said about overtime goals, which are scored while playing three-on-three, which some would say is not proper hockey. Caufield leads the league in overtime goals this season with five, while MacKinnon has only one.
It’s easy to understand the Canadiens’ fanbase’s disappointment with the fact that Caufield was ultimately unable to win the Trophy that commemorates the career of one of the biggest names in Habs’ history, but the American is still young and in the early stages of his career. He’s 25 years old and has only played 368 NHL games so far; there are plenty more to come, and he won’t forget how to score goals. Patience, Canadiens’ fans, Caufield will be in the conversation for that trophy for years to come, and something tells me it’s only a matter of time before he captures it.
The Philadelphia Flyers made the Stanley Cup playoffs largely through hard work and discipline, and one veteran leader took the discipline part literally.
Going back to the Olympic break, the Flyers have been one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL with one of the least effective penalty kills, and special teams would have cost them a playoff spot if they didn't tread carefully.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Flyers gave up 19 goals on the penalty kill over their last 26 games of the season, which is the fourth-most in the NHL dating back to Feb. 22.
Travis Sanheim, a penalty kill mainstay and the Flyers' No. 1 defenseman, went the entire final 26 games of the season without taking a single penalty.
That streak led to him playing 79:33 shorthanded, 16 minutes more than the next-closest player, Cam York, who played 63:25.
Over the course of the full season, Sanheim allowed 7.98 goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded, while Rasmus Ristolainen (8.14), York (9.13), Emil Andrae (15.67), and Jamie Drysdale (15.98) were all more porous to varying degrees.
With that math in mind, we can only imagine how much worse the Flyers' penalty kill would have been without Sanheim.
In addition to keeping Andrae and Drysdale off the ice for special teams purposes, Sanheim's play had an impact on the overall lineup, too.
Much to the chagrin of Flyers fans, head coach Rick Tocchet had a penchant for substituting Andrae out with veteran Noah Juulsen specifically to utilize the latter on the penalty kill when needed.
But, from Feb. 22 to Game 82, Andrae led all Flyers defensemen in Corsi per 60 (53.6), Corsi percentage (52.08%), expected goals percentage (57.15%), scoring chance percentage (53.88%), and high-danger Corsi percentage (59.34%) at 5-on-5.
So, because Sanheim simply stayed out of the box and played hard for the final 26 games, a ripple effect occurred that benefitted the entire Flyers team.
Andrae, despite playing 69 minutes less at 5-on-5 than every other Flyers regular on defense, was one of their most effective, and he may not have gotten the opportunity if the disciplinary issues and lackluster penalty kill had gotten any worse.
In such an event, it would have been very easy to tempt Tocchet into turning to a trusted veteran when the stakes were highest.
Instead, Tocchet and the Flyers regularly iced their best lineup and reaped the rewards, culminating in their first playoff berth since 2020.
Sanheim, while not overly vocal, did his job as a respected leader on this team and led the defense by example.
The results followed, and now the Flyers get to compete for a Stanley Cup.
Mar 26, 2025; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) is restrained by center Mitchell Robinson (23) in the fourth quarter against the LA Clippers at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
This is the third of a series of roundtable questions I’m asking the staff here at Peachtree Hoops about the Hawks as we approach the postseason. Today’s question: what’s the most difficult matchup that the Knicks pose for the Hawks?
Wes: Mitchell Robinson stands out to me, especially in the wake of the news that Jock Landale will be re-evaluated in two weeks from his ankle injury (effectively eliminating him from this series). He’s still arguably the best rebounder in the league (21 rebounds — eight offensive — in 38 minutes played against the Hawks this season), and his overall physicality and disruption (four blocks and four steals in those 38 minutes) has been tough for the Hawks and their thin front line to handle.
Jackson: Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT has feasted on the Hawks’ defense throughout his tenure with the Knicks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he, not Jalen Brunson, was New York’s leading scorer in this series. Onyeka Okongwu brings nice defensive switchability for Atlanta, but his lack of size to contend with Towns and backup Mitchell Robinson around the basket could be a major Achilles heel for Atlanta in this matchup.
Malik: Mitchell Robinson without a doubt. The last time these two played, Robinson controlled the glass on both ends of the floor and the Hawks didn’t have an answer. It will be interesting to see if Jock Landale can return at some point during the series, or will Quin Snyder try to play Tony Bradley a few minutes to try to offset Robinson.
Graham: Karl-Anthony Towns is the easy answer. He averaged 28.5 points on 63% shooting from the field to go with 13 rebounds; he just dominated this matchup and the Hawks have absolutely no good answer to contain him. And if they did manage to limit him, I have no doubt that you’d see Mitchell Robinson pick up the slack with the attention on KAT; and there’s no good answer for the Hawks for Robinson’s rebounding either – it’s just a fundamental flaw of the roster the Hawks have to find some way to limit (because I don’t think offensive rebounding/second chance scoring can be stopped in this series). Elsewhere, whoever Jalen Johnson’s matchup is, he has to win it convincingly in order for the Hawks to win this series.
Hassan: Jalen Brunson is New York’s best player, Karl-Anthony Towns has given Atlanta problems in each of their four matchups this season, but I’m going to go with OG Anunoby, New York’s best defender and their third-banana on offensive end. Anunoby has averaged 18.3 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 43.8% from deep in New York’s wins this season compared to just 13.4 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% from three in their losses. Keeping him in check is going to be crucial for Atlanta to win this series.
Jalen Johnson drew the Anunoby assignment during the regular season series against the Knicks – with Dyson Daniels guarding Jalen Brunson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on Mikal Bridges – and held Anunoby to just 5-for-15 shooting when the two were matched up. Will this defense hold up in the postseason?
All in all, I’m going into this series with the assumption that Brunson and KAT are going to get theirs every night, so the swing factor for Atlanta (in addition to winning the rebounding battle, as noted by my fellow writers) is going to be limiting the ‘other guys’ – and Anunoby is at the top of that list.
Apr 8, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) cheers his teammates from the bench during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
This season, the Spurs played the Portland Trail Blazers three times landing with a 2-1 edge over Rip City. In each of those three games, Victor Wembanyama sat out with an injury or injury management.
On November 26th, the Spurs played in Portland. Wemby was sitting out the fifth of twelve games while nursing a left calf strain.
On January 3rd, Wembanyama was sitting out his second game as a result of hyperextended left knee obtained during the New Year’s Eve matchup against the New York Knicks.
And then as the season was winding down, Victor once again sat out on April 8th with a left rib contusion after colliding with Paul George two days prior.
Portland, coming off a game-ending upset in Phoenix, secured the 7th seed and now face the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.
While the Spurs didn’t have much trouble with the Trail Blazers in those three games, there are some logistical considerations.
For one, Portland’s head coach is Tiago Splitter. Splitter won the 2014 NBA title with the Silver & Black, the run of which included a gentleman’s sweep of the Trail Blazers. He knows the Spurs playbook and was an adept big man, so counter strategizing will be something to watch.
With Donovan Clingan as their starting center and Robert Williams III as back up, Wemby will have his hands full on the boards as well as physically in the paint.
Portland also features Sidy Cissoko and Blake Wesley. While neither is expected to be an X-factor, never put it past a competitve player to motivate against their former team.
Over the years, the Spurs and Trail Blazers have met four times in the posteseason. The Trail Blazers got the best of the Spurs in 1990, but the Spurs have been victorious in the latter three, two of which (1999 and 2014) led to successful title runs.
History says this matchup means something.
3 out of 4 times the Spurs met the Portland Trail Blazers in the playoffs…
Tiago Splitter was asked if he thought Manu and Boris Diaw were rooting for the Spurs or for him as he leads the Trail Blazers.
He stated that he was confident Manu was all in on the Spurs, but that he’d be better off asking Boris Diaw after a couple of glasses of wine.
Series kicks off Sunday night.
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FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 18: Assistant General Manager, Head of Analytics Sunny Mehta for the Florida Panthers poses for his official headshot for the 2024-2025 NHL season on September 18, 2024 at the Baptist Health IcePlex in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. (Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
Mehta will be the hockey operations decision maker for the Devils. No immediate decisions on head coach Sheldon Keefe or any other staff. He will take time to evaluate. Media conference for introduction on Tuesday.
“The biggest takeaway from the New Jersey Devils‘ exit interviews is the one that didn’t happen. Star defenseman Dougie Hamilton ‘politely declined’ to interview with the media, remaining in hiding after his agent went public this winter with displeasure over a healthy scratch.” [New Jersey Hockey Now]
“I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that this is the most crucial offseason the organization has had in years. They have to get the front office structure right, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg. There are quite a few big decisions ahead for the next GM, and that should lead to an offseason of intrigue in the Garden State.” [Devils on the Rush]
“…We have spent the past few weeks canvassing many of the top player agents in hockey for their thoughts on key big-picture questions from around the league. In all, The Athletic polled more than 20 agents, who combine to represent hundreds of NHL player contracts worth billions of dollars, on nine key questions facing the league and its future.” [The Athletic ($)]
“Auston Matthews avoided playing fortune teller when addressing his career moving forward long-term with the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s captain met with the media Thursday following the Leafs’ final regular-season game the night before, a loss to Ottawa that signaled the end of a lost season for Toronto. Matthews wasn’t in the lineup — he has been sidelined by a torn MCL since mid-March — but with the Leafs heading into a transitional phase after missing their first postseason since 2016-17, Matthews was noncommittal on what lies ahead for him in Toronto.” [ESPN]
“Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin said he’s ‘pretty sure’ that Tuesday’s season finale at Columbus won’t be his last game, as the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer contemplates retirement.” [ESPN]
Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.
The Detroit Tigers are on a roll after a perfect 6-0 homestand that erased a five-game losing streak and put them over the .500 mark for the first time since late March. Next up on the agenda are the Boston Red Sox, who will host the Motor City Kitties for a four-game series at Fenway Park starting on Friday night.
The BoSox got off to a slow start to the 2026 campaign, dropping five straight after their season-opening win at the Cincinnati Reds, but have since earned series wins over the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Boston enters the weekend coming off a series loss at the Minnesota Twins, but it did prevent a sweep with a win on Wednesday’s finale.
Opening things up on the mound for the Olde English D is right-hander Casey Mize, whose trademark splitter appears to be finally reaching its long-awaited potential. Opposite him is lefty Ranger Suarez, who has had modest success so far this season.
Make note that Friday night’s tilt will be broadcast on AppleTV, while Monday’s matchup starts at an eye-rubbingly early 11:10 a.m. ET.
Detroit Tigers (10-9) vs. Boston Red Sox (7-11)
Time (ET): 7:15 p.m. Place: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts SB Nation Site:Over the Monster Media: AppleTV,Tigers Radio Network
Game 20: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (1-1, 5.02 ERA)
KMOX’s pre/post-game host Matt Pauley sets the stage for us for the Astros upcoming weekend series vs. St. Louis.
Q: Is Jordan Walker now the face of the franchise?
A: Interesting question. I’m not sure I’d say he’s the face just yet, but his start to the season has been spectacular.
He was literally one of the worst hitters in baseball the last couple of years, and I’d heard from fans and they were ready to move on from him, but now seeing what he’s doing, it’s unexpected. Some felt even coming out of spring training that he should’ve been optioned to AAA Memphis.
On Monday night, he hit his 8th home run in the first 16 games of this season. The only Cardinals players to accomplish that feat in team history are Stan Musial, Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols. He’s in rare air.
Q: Did you think J.J. Wetherholt would be this strong defensively?
A: No, I didn’t. His reputation is being an incredible hitter, so to see what he’s doing, especially going to his left, he’s getting just about everything which has been a surprise.
Q: One of the worst words in sports is “rebuild”. Are the Cardinals fully immersed in that process?
A: This is the first true rebuild year. Prior, they were trying to serve two masters. Last year didn’t work.
This is the first time in a while that there’s been clear intention of what they’re doing. It doesn’t mean they won’t be competitive. I know in talking to you, you lived through it in Houston 15 years ago. That was a complete and total tear down.
Q: Who will we see in this weekend series for the Cardinals’ starters taking the mound?
A: It will be a mix of Kyle Leahy, who actually throws six different pitches. He has a nice repertoire as someone coming from the bullpen originally.
Andre Pallante last year really struggled. He’s added a changeup but struggled against Boston recently. You’ll also see Matthew Liberatore, who is the leader of the rotation. He was the opening day starter. They believe he can be the guy to lead this staff.
Free of charge for the discerning reader.Happy birthday toCap Ansonand a mighty host of others, plus more baseball stories, such as the first pro game, Jackie’s first hit, Sam Snead’s big hit, Mickey LOVED Washington, and the debuts of Clemente, Aparicio, Drysdale and Frank Robinson.
Today in baseball history:
1869 – The first professional baseball game ever played sees the Cincinnati Red Stockings defeat the rival Cincinnati Amateurs, 24-15.
1951 – Golf great Sam Snead tees off from home plate and hits the center field scoreboard at Wrigley Field before the Cubs’home opener. The Associated Press reports: “Sammy Snead settled a long-standing argument today over whether a golf ball could be driven from home plate over the towering scoreboard at Wrigley Field. It can, by a golfer like Sam. Wearing street clothes, Snead sent a ball zooming well over the scoreboard with a No. 2 iron after hitting the board with a swing with a No. 4 iron. Snead calculated the carry was 175 yards. The scoreboard rises 89 feet in the air some 50 feet behind the 400-mark on the centerfield wall.”
1974 – C George Mitterwald has a career day in leading the Cubs to an 18-9 win over the Pirates. He goes 4-for-4 with a walk, a double, three homers, and eight RBI. The next Cub catcher to hit three homers in a game will be Dioner Navarro, in 2013.
1976 – At Wrigley Field, Mike Schmidt leads a Philadelphia Phillies assault with a single, four home runs in consecutive at-bats, and eight RBI to overcome a 12 – 1 deficit after three innings and beat the Chicago Cubs in 10 innings, 18-16. The Cubs tie the game in the ninth after the Phillies have taken a 15 – 13 lead. Hitting .167 going into the game, Schmidt connects for two homers off Rick Reuschel, one off Mike Garman, and the last, a two-run shot off Reuschel’s brother Paul in the 10th inning. Schmidt also becomes the first National League player in modern times to hit four home runs in a row.
858 – Benedict III’s reign as Catholic Pope ends with his death.
1492 – Christopher Columbus signs a contract with Spanish monarchs King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I to find the “Indies” with the stated goal of converting people to Catholicism. This promises him 10% of all riches found and the governorship of any lands encountered.
1853 – US Marine Hospital at Presidio, San Francisco forms.
1860 – Champion of England Tom Sayers and American John Heenan fight a brutal 2-hour, 27-minute draw that ends only after police stop the fight near Farnborough in England, acknowledged as the first world title bout.
1875 – Modern snooker is invented by Sir Neville Chamberlain, a bored British officer in Jabalpur, India.
1993 – Two Los Angeles police officers convicted in federal court of violating Rodney King‘s civil rights and sentenced to prison, while two others are acquitted, leading to the L. A. Riots. When the riots ended six days later, 63 people had been killed, 2,383 had been injured, more than 12,000 had been arrested, and estimates of property damage were over $1 billion.
2015 – American jazz composer and saxophonist John Coltrane is awarded a posthumous Special Citation by the Pulitzer Prize board.
2015 – Marianne Winkler finds “message in a bottle” on the shore of the German island of Amrum; it had been dropped in the North Sea by British marine scientist George Parker Bidder on November 30th, 1906, making its length of time spent adrift 108 years, 138 days
Apr 15, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies infielder Bryce Harper (42) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs in the ninth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Things are a bit tense in the Phillies fanbase. A series victory against the Braves would do a lot to remedy that. A series loss against them would do a lot to make things tenser.
It’s a three game series, so those are the only two options.
