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As we enter the home stretch of the 2025-26 NBA season, there’s no denying that it’s been a topsy-turvy couple of months for the Atlanta Hawks. At the end of November, Atlanta’s record stood at 13-8, they had picked up nine wins in their last twelve outings and were sitting as the five-seed in the East – perched above teams like Boston, Cleveland and Philadelphia in the conference standings.

Now, 11 weeks and 22 losses later, I wouldn’t blame you for wondering whether that late November surge will be remembered as the apex of the Hawks season. 

December was not kind to Atlanta, and in retrospect, proved to be a watershed month for the franchise. Amid a nebulous, illness-related absence for Kristaps Porzingis*, as well as an unsuccessful attempt to reintegrate Trae Young into the lineup**, Atlanta managed just three wins in their next 14 games, slipping all the way down to the 10-seed in the East. 

_{*After appearing in 12 out of the Hawks first 21 games, Kristaps Porzingis played just twice in the month of December – scoring 25 points on 9-for-13 shooting (4-for-7 from downtown) in a 1-point loss to Denver on December 5th, then chipping in with 16 points in 17 minutes in a New Years Eve drubbing of the Minnesota Timberwolves.} 

_{**Young was sidelined from October 30th to December 17th due to an MCL sprain suffered early in the season. His return to action coincided with a six-game losing streak before the team shut him down and eventually traded him on January 7th.}

Atlanta’s defense, which had played a vital role in their early-season success, deserves the brunt of the blame for their December woes. After allowing 113.1 points per 100 possessions through the first 21 games of the season (good for the 11th-ranked defensive unit in the league), the Hawks allowed 119.8 points per 100 possessions in December – a mark which ranked 27th in the league over that span. 

While Porzingis’ absence and Young’s presence* did nothing to aid their efforts on the less glamorous end of the floor, looking at the raw shooting numbers, though there wasn’t a significant change in where their opponents were shooting from, the most damaging difference between October/November and December was seen in their opponent’s three-point accuracy – with their opponents converting 37.8% of their looks from the perimeter in the month of December (fifth-highest opponent 3P% over this span) after shooting just 34% through the first 21 games of the season (seventh-lowest opponent 3P% over this span).

_{*Atlanta allowed an eye-watering 129 points per 100 possessions with Young on the court in December (141 minutes across five games) relative to 116.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.} 

In addition to their opponents shooting better from the perimeter, another factor that negatively impacted Atlanta’s defense in December was that they weren’t forcing as many turnovers as they were early on in the season. Per cleaningtheglass, the Hawks pressured their opponents into committing turnovers on 16.2% of their possessions (the fourth-highest rate in the league) through the first 21 games of the season, however in December, that number dropped to 14.2% – slightly below the league average.

After that disastrous December, the first seven weeks of 2026 have been marked by fluidity up and down the roster. Young was shipped off to Washington on January 7th, with CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert coming Atlanta’s way in the trade.

Porzingis continued to play sporadically – suiting up in three out of Atlanta’s first four games of the new year before reclaiming his spot on the injury report due to a bout with left Achilles tendonitis. Atlanta would eventually trade him to Golden State for Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield at the trade deadline on February 5th, bringing the Latvian’s stint in Atlanta to an end after playing in just 17 out of a possible 52 games this season.

With Porzingis’ spot in the rotation up for grabs, the Hawks gave in-house options Mouhamed Gueye and Asa Newell an extended look as the back-up ‘5’, though when neither played impressed, the team went out and signed fourth-year big, Christian Koloko to a two-way contract on January 16th for some additional depth at the position. Koloko got his first taste of action on January 21st, logging 11 minutes in a two-point victory against Memphis, and played valiantly in each of the next six games before being replaced in the rotation by veteran big-man, Jock Landale* – who was acquired by the Hawks on deadline day for cash considerations. Coming out of the All-Star break, the spot appears to be Landale’s to lose. 

_{*Landale had averaged 11.3 points and 6.5 rebounds in 24 minutes per game on 51/38/67 shooting splits (FG/3PT/FT) across 45 appearances (25 starts) for the Memphis Grizzlies this season before being traded to Atlanta.}

Still, integrating McCollum and Kispert as well as settling on a back-up ‘5’ weren’t the only rotation questions the Hawks have faced since the calendar flipped. After exploding for a season-high 25 points against New Orleans on January 7th, Zaccharie Risacher missed the next three weeks due to a bone contusion in his left knee. Onyeka Okongwu was sidelined for four games after suffering a gruesome dental fracture against the Celtics on January 28th. Both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson have missed time due to nagging lower body injuries. 

The Hawks were active in the trade market as well. In addition to the transactions outlined above, on February 1st they traded fan-favorite, Vit Krejci, to the Portland Trail Blazers for two future second-round picks and Duop Reath (who was subsequently waived). On February 5th, they flipped Luke Kennard to the Los Angeles Lakers in return for Gabe Vincent and a future second-rounder. 

Amid all the changes, the Hawks have gone 10-11 since the beginning of January, and with 26 games remaining in the regular season, find themselves in a precarious position as far as the 2025-26 season is concerned*. With a record of 26-30, they are clinging to the 10-seed in the East – sitting just 1.5 games ahead of Chicago and Milwaukee for a spot in the Play-In tournament. 

_{*Thanks to their front office’s maneuvering, Atlanta has ample cap space this summer.}

With Giannis Antetokounmpo slated to return to action for Milwaukee, the Charlotte Hornets surging (9-1 over their last 10 games), and teams like Miami and Orlando still playing hard-nosed hoops, postseason basketball is far from guaranteed for the Hawks. We’ll find out what this team is made of over the next few weeks.

Entering this crucial stretch of the season, here’s my projection of Atlanta’s depth chart, with a look at the updated cap sheet below (salary figures from Spotrac). 

Ahead of the home-stretch, these are two burning questions facing the Atlanta Hawks.

What’s wrong with the offense?

While the Hawks have patched things up on defense since December – allowing 113.3 points per 100 possessions since January 1st (similar to their performance through the first 21 games) – their offense has crumbled, with the team managing just 111 points per 100 possessions over this span, a mark which ranks 27th* in the NBA. It would be easy to pin this drop-off on the departure of Trae Young, who, for all of his flaws, remains one of the best offensive floor-raisers in the league, however I would push back on this notion given that the Hawks posted a 115.3 offensive rating between October 31st and December 15th (22 games) when Young was sidelined with an MCL sprain. 

_{*Tied with the Sacramento Kings – never a good sign.}

Comparing Atlanta’s offensive performance from that stretch without Young to their offense since January 1st, a few things stand out. First, while the Hawks have continued to play fast, they have actually done a better job taking care of the ball in the new year, posting an offensive turnover rate of 12.6% since January 1st, the fourth-lowest mark in the league and a vast improvement from their early season stretch without Young, when they were committing turnovers on 15.6% of their possessions. 

Additionally, while the Hawks free-throw and offensive rebounding rates have remained quite low, the main thing that’s hurt their offense has been the dramatic decline in shooting efficiency – with Atlanta ranking just 22nd in effective field-goal percentage since January 1st after ranking seventh during the early season stretch. 

Taking a closer look at their offensive shot profile, while the Hawks have indeed shot slightly worse from the perimeter, the driving factor behind this drop off has been the team’s struggles at the basket. Since January 1st, the Hawks have shot just 62.3% within five feet – the second-worst mark in the league, and a far cry from their rim efficiency from earlier in the season, when they were converting these looks at close to a 70% clip. 

Looking at the individual player’s finishing numbers below, the culprits begin to emerge. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, whose finishing wasn’t great to begin with, has shot just 55% at the rim since January 1st. Onyeka Okongwu, who was converting these looks at a 71% clip earlier in the season, has shot just 59% over this span. New addition, Corey Kispert, who has shot 73% at the rim for his career hasn’t been able to replicate this form in Atlanta, shooting just 57% at the rim in a Hawks uniform. Mouhamed Gueye and Zaccharie Risacher have seen significant declines as well, shooting just 52% and 57% respectively since January 1st.

Additionally, while Jalen Johnson has continued to finish at a high rate, he’s seen a significant decline in his rim-attempts over the past few weeks – averaging just 4.3 attempts per game since January 1st compared to 5.8 attempts per game during the early season stretch. 

It’s unclear what’s behind this drop off in the team’s finishing ability. The Hawks are playing just as fast, and are getting out in transition at the same exact rate as they were during the early season stretch. If I had to guess, I would say that the fluidity in the rotation as well as the process of integrating their new players took a bit of a toll on the team’s spacing, leading to more difficult attempts at the rim – though if that has indeed been the case, these issues should be ironed out as this new group grows more comfortable playing with each other. 

I also think that Jalen Johnson taking 1.5 fewer rim-attempts per game since January 1st is significant, as he is the team’s best rim finisher. If the Hawks are going to turn things around, I’d expect him to be a big part of the improvement – directly (getting to the basket more) or indirectly (using his playmaking prowess to create cleaner looks at the rim for his teammates).

All that to say, this team’s ability to finish at the rim is the no. 1 area to watch for me coming out of the All-Star break. 

What will Kuminga bring to the table?

Speaking of rim finishing, it is quite important to note that the Hawks added a dynamic finisher at the trade deadline in 23 year-old Jonathan Kuminga, formerly of the Golden State Warriors. While it’s unclear when Kuminga will make his Hawks debut – he’s been sidelined since January 23rd due to a bone bruise in his left knee – the former no. 7 pick has shot 71.6% at the rim for his career (on 3.6 attempts per game) and should help the Hawks put pressure on the rim on offense. 

While Kuminga’s finishing hasn’t been up to his usual standards this season (62.7% in 20 appearances for Golden State), this has been an extremely strange season for the 23 year-old. 

Kuminga has long been dissatisfied with his situation in Golden State, where the franchise’s push to maximize the twilight of Steph Curry’s career clashed with their ability/willingness to afford him the runway required to reach his potential. Last year was the final year of Kuminga’s rookie contract, and over the summer, despite Kuminga voicing his desire to play elsewhere, his status as a restricted free agent proved to be a difficult hurdle in negotiations with other teams, and ultimately, he returned to the Warriors on a two-year deal – with a team-option for the second season.

After starting the first 12 games of the 2025-26 season, Kuminga suffered a knee injury, and never found a consistent role when he was cleared to return. He appeared in just eight more games for Golden State, before requesting a trade on January 15th – the first day he was eligible to be traded after signing a new contract this summer. 

It was a peculiar situation, and one that was hard to assess from the outside looking in (no matter how hard ESPN tries), but regardless, I did go back and watch most of Kuminga’s actions from this season. The two clips below are just a taste of the level of athleticism that he brings to the table, and despite the down year efficiency-wise, I remain bullish on his finishing ability.

I mean… holy smokes. 

Still, it’s important to remember that Kuminga is far from a finished product. A few areas for him to improve on offense include his shot selection, decision making and outside shooting. 

As far as the shot selection, I’d like to see Kuminga cut down the number of mid-range attempts he takes and increase the number of rim-attempts as the latter is a more efficient shot. Kuminga’s rim shooting frequency was upwards of 40% in each of his first three seasons, however last year just 31% of his attempts came from this area of the floor, with the number rising to 34.5% this season. Conversely, he’s taken roughly 40% of his looks from the mid-range over the past two seasons. If he can eschew some of these mid-range looks for some more attempts at the rim in Atlanta, I like the fit on offense. 

In terms of his decision making, Kuminga posted the highest turnover rate of his career (4.7 turnovers per 100 possessions) this season in Golden State – with many of these turnovers coming down to simply making a bad read, or losing control of the ball on the gather*. Given how fast Atlanta plays, how Kuminga finds the balance between being aggressive on offense and taking care of the ball will be an important area to watch when he returns to the court. 

_{*To be frank, they looked like turnovers one might expect to see from a rookie forward, not a fifth-year player.}

Last but not least, Kuminga’s outside shot has been fairly inconsistent throughout his career (33.1% on 4 attempts per 75 possessions), and while I don’t expect him to suddenly evolve into a high-volume outside shooter in Atlanta, it would be nice to see some improvement in this area before the team makes a decision on his second-year option. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Kuminga has the athletic tools to be a high-level defender and has ranked in the 77th percentile or better in defensive-EPM in each of the past three seasons per dunksandthrees. While his steal/block rates have ranked right around the average for his position, he has ranked in the 75th percentile or better in Bball-Index’s defensive positional versatility metric (indicating the extent to which he guarded various positions) and has rated favorably in their perimeter isolation defensive metric in each year after his rookie season. He won’t be a liability on the defensive end. 

Atlanta will have to wait a little longer to see Kuminga in action – as it was announced yesterday that he is ‘progressing’ in his recovery from a bone bruise in his left knee and will be re-evaluated in one week. Given how strange his situation was in Golden State, Kuminga is viewed as one of the most enigmatic players in the entire league, and will have a lot to prove over the final eight weeks of the 2025-26 season.

Count him out at your own risk. 

Cooper Flagg's NBA debut jersey sold privately via Sotheby's earlier this month for $1 million, the auction house announced Thursday morning.

The price is a record for any Flagg-related collectible and comes mid-way through his rookie campaign, during which he is averaging 20.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists for the Dallas Mavericks.

"The $1 million result for Cooper Flagg’s rookie debut jersey is a powerful testament to the significance collectors place on true ‘first moments’ in sport," Brahm Wachter, Sotheby’s Head of Modern Collectibles, said in a statement. "This jersey captures the very beginning of a special career, one carrying huge expectations and excitement.”

Flagg's Summer League debut jersey sold in August for $95,250 in a Sotheby's auction.

Sotheby's is the NBA's official game-worn partner, and generally offers jerseys from key games in public auctions, such as the 2023 sale of Victor Wembanyama's debut jersey for $762,000. However, the auction house has recently become more strategic with its inventory, holding back jerseys that have the potential to gain in value.

Collectors will have the chance to scoop up other key rookie debut jerseys at auction this month, however, as Sotheby's will sell gamers from the first games of VJ Edgecombe, Kon Knueppel, Dylan Harper, Derik Queen and more, with bidding opening Thursday.

Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct, the premier company for collectible culture.

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The second half of the 2025-26 campaign begins tonight as the Houston Rockets visit the Charlotte Hornets at the Spectrum Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. 

Kevin Durant was shooting the three well before the ASG break, and my Rockets vs Hornets predictions are eyeing him to keep it rolling. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Thursday, February 19. 

Rockets vs Hornets prediction

Rockets vs Hornets best bet: Kevin Durant Over 2.5 made threes (+120)

Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant is nicknamed "Easy Money Sniper" for a reason. The future Hall of Famer is averaging 2.3 makes from downtown this season on 5.8 attempts for an impressive 40.3% clip. 

Before the All-Star break, KD cashed the Over in triples in back-to-back contests, going 3-for-9 and 3-for-7, with both of those games coming against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

The veteran is shooting the triple even better on the road, averaging 2.6 makes for a 44% clip. In one meeting with the Charlotte Hornets earlier this month, Durant could barely miss, going 3-for-4 from deep.

Rockets vs Hornets same-game parlay

Alperen Sengun is not only an imposing big man but also Houston's top playmaker, averaging 6.3 dimes this season, and I’m eyeing him to facilitate at a high level tonight, which will help KD get more looks from deep. 

The Turkish center has cashed the Over in assists in two of his last three appearances. He’s also averaging 6.5 dimes on the road compared to 6.0 at home. 

The Rockets won two straight heading into the break, and they’ve emerged victorious in four of their last six against Charlotte. 

Rockets vs Hornets SGP

• Kevin Durant Over 2.5 made threes
• Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 assists
• Rockets moneyline

Our "from downtown" SGP: Reed is the Sheppard

Reed Sheppard was on fire before the ASG break, hitting the Over in three consecutive outings. He scored a minimum of 16 points in each game.

Rockets vs Hornets SGP

• Kevin Durant Over 2.5 made threes
• Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 assists
• Rockets moneyline
• Reed Sheppard Over 10.5 points

Rockets vs Hornets odds

• Spread: Rockets -4.5 (-110) | Hornets +4.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Rockets -190 | Hornets +160
• Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)

Rockets vs Hornets betting trend to know

The Rockets have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.80 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Hornets.

How to watch Rockets vs Hornets

Rockets vs Hornets latest injuries

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The NBA All-Star break didn’t do much good for either the Indiana Pacers or Washington Wizards, as both have a laundry list of inactive players as they open a two-game set in the U.S. Capitol tonight.

It’s a battle between the two worst teams in the East, and my Pacers vs. Wizards predictions and free NBA picks target the Under on Thursday, February 19.

Pacers vs Wizards prediction

Pacers vs Wizards best bet: Under 232.5 (-110)

The Washington Wizards have the second-worst scoring defense in basketball, but the Indiana Pacers aren’t in a position to take advantage.

Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, and Obi Toppin are out, while T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith are questionable. Indiana already ranks third-worst in scoring at 111.1 points per game.

The Wizards can’t capitalize, as Anthony Davis and Trae Young still haven’t debuted, and Alex Sarr is on the shelf.

The Pacers have won six of seven in this head-to-head, but with roster uncertainty, stick to the Under, which has hit in three straight meetings.

Pacers vs Wizards same-game parlay

Andrew Nembhard is one of Indiana's few fully healthy regulars, and he’s been dealing, racking up at least nine dimes in seven of his last 11 games, missing the Over by an assist the other two times.
 
Jarace Walker led the Pacers in scoring with 24 last game against Brooklyn, but his follow-up hasn’t been great: in three previous games where he’s gone for 20+, he’s never scored more than 15 in the next game.

Pacers vs Wizards SGP

• Under 232.5
• Andrew Nembhard Over 8.5 assists
• Jarace Walker Under 17.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Three's a crowd

Let’s stick with this backcourt-frontcourt combo as we round out our big money SGP.

Nembhard’s 2.5 line on made threes is too inflated, considering the most moneyballs he’s ever hit in a game in nine career games vs. the Wiz is one.

Walker, meanwhile, has a gettable 1.5 line. He’s hit at least two triples in 12 of his last 16 games.

Pacers vs Wizards SGP

• Under 232.5
• Andrew Nembhard Over 8.5 assists
• Jarace Walker Under 17.5 points
• Andrew Nembhard Under 2.5 made threes
• Jarace Walker Over 1.5 made threes

Pacers vs Wizards odds

• Spread: Pacers -2.5 (-110) | Wizards +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Pacers -140 | Wizards +120
• Over/Under: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)

Pacers vs Wizards betting trend to know

Washington has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home games vs teams with a losing record. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Wizards.

How to watch Pacers vs Wizards

Pacers vs Wizards latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Dallas Mavericks (19-35) have sharply fallen out of the play-in race, seven games behind the 10th-place Los Angeles Clippers in the West. As Dallas enters the final third of the season, the Mavericks are looking to snap a nine-game losing streak. As play-in hopes continue to dwindle, the Mavericks will take a serious look (if they haven’t already) at “tanking” to maximize draft positioning ahead of the loaded 2026 NBA Draft.

Cooper Flagg is THE guy

The first reason is obvious — let’s just keep watching Cooper Flagg. Not enough can be said about the 19-year-old from Duke. He stepped onto the NBA hardwood with sky-high expectations, being one of the highest-touted players this century, in the same conversation as guys like LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama, and Zion Williamson. Flagg has not disappointed.

In his rookie campaign, Flagg is averaging 20.4 points per game, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. He’s also proved his value defensively, averaging 2.0 stocks (steals and blocks) per game. Curious what other rookies have averaged 20-6-4? It’s a small list – Luka Doncic, Tyreke Evans, LeBron James, and Oscar Robertson. That’s good company.

One of Flagg’s strengths is his ability to adjust, and he’s done just that over 54 games. In his first 10 games, Flagg averaged 13.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. By most rookie measuring sticks, these are great numbers. But with Flagg came higher expectations, and he’s delivered. Over his past 10 games, Flagg is averaging 25.3 points per game, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, including a stretch where he scored 30+ points in four consecutive games against the Celtics, Rockets, Spurs, and Hornets.

These numbers, even for Flagg, are almost too impressive to comprehend. It’s easy as a Mavericks fan to be spoiled with numbers coming off the Luka Doncic era, thinking these are normal. They aren’t normal. Cooper Flagg is not normal. He’s already shown the ability to be a generational talent. The path to contention could come quicker than previously expected. The only thing the Mavericks have to do is surround their star with the right talent.

Who are the two-way guys?

Dallas will probably lose a lot of games during this final stretch. But the roster still has enough rotational talent to win enough games to keep them from a free-fall collapse. That means some decisions will be made on who suits up each night. Don’t be surprised to see some “phantom” injuries, those we didn’t know anything about, show up more on injury reports. Don’t be surprised if Dallas sits players for rest or injury management, including Flagg, who was seen wearing a boot on his injured foot during the NBA All-Star break. If the goal is to optimize draft position, the Mavericks may have to shorten the rotation and give the two-way players consistent minutes. Suit up Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse and Miles Kelly. You’re up.

Dallas has no incentive to be bad next season since it doesn’t own its own draft pick. The focus will likely shift to getting back into the playoff picture. Good teams need depth. Playoff teams need depth. These last 28 games should be an opportunity for the two-way players to prove they can be valuable rotation pieces, even if they’re the 10th, 11th, and 12th guys off the bench.

As we’ve learned in the last two seasons, every healthy body matters. Nembhard (6.7 points per game, 4.9 assists, 1.8 rebounds) has shown signs of brilliance, but does his size ultimately matter as he reverts to the mean? Cisse (3.7 points, 4.5 rebounds) is the Energizer Bunny, but he’s raw and inexperienced. Can he show enough discipline to stay out of foul trouble and play double-digit minutes on a nightly basis? Kelly (2.8 points, 1.6 rebounds) can shoot the lights out, and Dallas desperately needs shooting. But can he string together higher volume shooting nights at a high percentage? All these questions should have some answers by the end of the season.

Who are the new guys?

The rotation has changed a lot since the February 5th trade deadline. The blockbuster deal that sent Anthony Davis, Jaden Hardy, D’Angelo Russell, and Dante Exum to the Washington Wizards got the Mavs a return of Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Marvin Bagley III, and Malaki Branham. Dallas re-routed Branham to the Charlotte Hornets for Tyus Jones.

That’s a lot of new names. Do any of them have a spot in the rotation next year? Now is the time to find out. The good news for the Mavericks is that the rest of the season for the newcomers is a free tryout. The new Mavs on expiring deals going into the offseason include Middleton ($33.2M), Jones ($7.0M), Johnson ($3.0M), and Bagley ($2.2M). Middleton sticks out as the obvious rental, since the 34-year-old is taking up a good chunk of cap space. However, if he decides he wants to stay in Dallas on a new deal, a cheaper version of the veteran may be an option. You know what you get with Middleton — a mid-range assassin who’s on the back end of his career but can still give you 20 points on any given night.

The other guys are interesting. The Mavericks will always be somewhat tied to Bagley because he was taken a spot earlier by the Sacramento Kings, over Luka Doncic. For being the second overall pick, Bagley has had an underwhelming career, averaging 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds. But he’s still only 26 and hasn’t been in many great winning situations, which can impact a player’s production. He’s had stops in Memphis, Detroit (before they were good), Sacramento, and Washington. Bagley could find some revitalization in Dallas, and if he does, he could be worth keeping.

Johnson was taken 23rd overall by the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2024 NBA Draft, and he just hasn’t seen the floor much. The 21-year-old is a high-flying and athletic wing who had high upside coming out of the Next Stars program in the NBL. With more minutes, he can prove he deserves a spot in the rotation.

Jones has been heavily sought after within the Mavs organization for years, and now they have him. His craftiness and ability to facilitate are needed this season, but do the Mavs have room for him next year? If the Mavs convert Nembhard to a standard NBA contract, they wouldn’t have much reason to re-sign Jones this offseason. He’s 29 years old and undersized at 6’0. With Kyrie Irving returning next season, the point guard position quickly gets crowded. Jones’s career averages of 7.4 points per game, 4.3 assists, and 1.0 steals are good, but probably not good enough to justify keeping him on the roster, unless it’s on a veteran’s minimum deal.

The new players have the opportunity to get re-established in Dallas as the Mavericks go full throttle in the Cooper Flagg era.

Don’t worry about wins and losses

The end of the season may not be pretty, but the goal should be seeing what the Mavericks currently have. What assets are good enough to keep around for the Cooper Flagg era? There’s no doubt Flagg will leap to stardom soon, and he’s worth watching every night. The only question is who’s going to be on the ship when the Mavericks start winning again. Dallas returns to play Friday, February 20, in Minnesota. Tipoff against the Timberwolves is set for 6:30 PM on ESPN.

The NBA All-Star break isn’t really the halfway point in the season, but rather a notice to contenders around the league that it’s time to get serious. About 65 percent of the 2025-2026 regular season is already over, and there’s only about eight weeks until the playoffs start. March Madness might be the next big event on the sports calendar, but the playoffs will be here before you know it, and there’s already an inner and outer circle of contenders forming.

The NBA Playoffs are becoming increasingly harder to predict. No one would have anticipated the Indiana Pacers making the NBA Finals as a No. 4 seed last year, and it was even harder to believe that they pushed the Thunder to Game 7 before Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles. The Dallas Mavericks also made a shocking Finals run in 2024 as the No. 5 seed in the West. In 2023, the Miami Heat became the first No. 8 seed to ever make the Finals.

Will the league get another big upset this year? It’s on the table with how shaky even the top contenders have looked lately. Here are the nine teams that can win the 2026 NBA championship, ranked by who’s most likely to do it.

9. Houston Rockets

It sure doesn’t feel like the Rockets deserve a spot on this list right now given their recent play and ongoing injury issues, but they’ve been good enough since the start to the season to at least earn a mention. Houston still grades out well statistically exiting the All-Star break at No. 6 in offense, No. 5 in defense, and No. 6 in net-rating. Losing Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury just feels like a crushing blow that takes away from the Rockets’ identity of owning the glass and generating extra possessions. This team could really use a healthy Fred VanVleet right now with Reed Sheppard still not fully trusted by Ime Udokda, but that’s not happening. The Kevin Durant burner scandal is a potential distraction in the locker room if it’s true, but the bigger issue is that this team is still dead-last in three-point rate and can’t afford any kind of off-night with the limited number of threes they do generate. We’ve seen some Cinderella runs to the Finals in recent years as noted in the intro, and to me the Rockets still feel better than whoever the fifth-best East team is (Sixers?) or another West challenger like the Lakers.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs entered the season as one of two favorites to win the East along with the Knicks. They never really looked like an NBA Finals contender as injuries hit Darius Garland and Max Strus, plus the loss of Ty Jerome took a toll on what was an elite offense that helped the team win 64 games last year. The Cavs had to act like a desperate team at the deadline if they really wanted to regain their contender status, and that’s exactly what they did. Trading Garland for James Harden is a true stunner that breaks a golden rule in sports to never trade young for old. In this case, the older player is far more durable, but it’s still difficult to trust Harden in big moments given his playoff history. Harden wasn’t the only new addition at the deadline, with Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder also arriving via the Kings to fortify what was a shaky bench. The Cavs fundamentally changed their team at the trade deadline more than any other contender, and putting them on this list so early in the Harden era is an acknowledgement that: a) they got better, b) the East really is wide open. With Donovan Mitchell playing as well as any guard in the world this side of SGA and Jarrett Allen potentially getting a big boost from Harden’s playmaking, Cleveland is suddenly a lot more interesting now than they were a few weeks ago. I’ll believe Harden can have the signature playoff run he’s always been missing when I see it, but on this team he doesn’t have to do the heavy lifting, just give them what Garland couldn’t in terms of reliability.

7. Boston Celtics

I really thought the Celtics would use Jayson Tatum’s torn Achilles as an excuse to take a gap year and try to land an elite young talent in the 2026 NBA Draft. After flirting with the idea for the first 20 games of the season, Boston took off and has been one of the best teams in the East ever since. Jaylen Brown has shined in a starring role without Tatum, putting together an All-NBA caliber season largely because he’s on fire as a mid-range shooter. Derrick White might be Boston’s real MVP so far, thriving in every way a great role player can thrive despite having a poor shooting season. Boston has discovered a few gems along the way, most notably in Neemias Queta, who has stabilized the front court with elite rebounding and play-finishing. Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez have also been critical bench pieces who defend and positively influence the possession game, while Nikola Vucevic came over at the trade deadline to add a stretch five look. If Tatum returns, he won’t have to do quite as much dirty work on this team as he’s accustomed to. How Brown and Tatum manage the scoring and creation burden will be interesting to watch, but it could be a good problem to have. The Celtics are once again super well coached, play their analytic-friendly style to a tee, and have a top-10 defense to fall back on. This team can absolutely win the East if Tatum looks anything like Tatum.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals the last two seasons, and they will be a factor deep into the playoffs again this year. Anthony Edward is one of the best guards alive at age-24, and this season he’s debuted an improved mid-range game to go along with his deadly three-point shooting and ferocious rim-attacking. Edwards has a team full of long and athletic defenders behind him, starting with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Gobert remains a plus-minus monster (+8 net-rating) because of his elite rim protection, and at this point it’s clear that Minnesota’s bold trade for him was a big win. The Wolves didn’t land Giannis at the trade deadline, but they did acquire Ayo Dosunmu, who does a lot to fill the void left by Nickeil Alexander-Walker when he departed in free agency. Dosunmu and Donte DiVincenzo need to hit shots when they’re on the floor, because otherwise it’s on Edwards to keep the team’s three-point rate alive. I’d love to see Edwards on a team with more spacing, but that’s the cost of a phenomenal defense helmed by Gobert. I’d probably pick the Wolves to win the East this year, but sadly for them, they remain in the West until expansion comes. There are other West teams I trust more than Minnesota, but they still have an outside shot at finally breaking through this year.

5. New York Knicks

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Knicks’ offense is awesome, but there’s reason to believe their defense isn’t built for the playoffs. New York had a similar problem last season, and firing Tom Thibodeau for Mike Brown hasn’t really solved things. It’s mostly the product of a highly talented but flawed roster-building product that put two of the league’s worst defenders (at least among offensive stars) together to start and close games. Jalen Brunson is a savant and a hero on his best days, but he’s also an 8th percentile defender by EPM who just doesn’t have the length and quickness to toughen up at the point of attack. Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t been quite as good as a shooter this year, and he’s still the same frustrating defender who even pissed off Victor Wembanyama in the All-Star Game with his poor awareness. The Knicks’ highly-paid core gets all the attention, but I’m interested in what Miles McBride can add to this team if he can return from a core muscle injury that could reportedly sideline him until the playoffs. McBride was having a fantastic season and feels like one of the more underrated guards in the league at this point. He crushes with Brunson (+13.4 net-rating) and without him (+7.6 net-rating), and I don’t think they can win the East without him being healthy and productive. Mitchell Robinson’s rebounding will be another important factor in a potential NBA Finals run, and he’s always an injury concern even if he’s been largely healthy so far. The Knicks are still in Finals-or-bust mode, and there’s a lot of pressure to get it done this year with Tatum and Haliburton injured.

4. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have been one of the best stories of the season, going from the worst team in the league two years ago to a young team on the rise that made the playoffs last year, to this season owning the league’s best winning percentage at the All-Star break. Detroit has gotten the job done with an elite defense, and Cade Cunningham making winning plays down the stretch as a lead shot-creator. Can that formula win in the playoffs? The Pistons do not have much shooting or spacing: they’re No. 27 in three-point rate, and No. 21 in three-point percentage so far this season. The rotation is deep, but it still feels like Cunningham has to do everything himself in crunch-time. I wanted Detroit to make a bigger splash at the deadline than Kevin Huerter (which was a trade largely made to move up in the draft), but given the state of the East, they still might be the favorites heading into the playoffs. I like that this feels like a classic Pistons team defined by defense and toughness. Good luck scoring on Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren inside, plus Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland on the wings. I’m not quite sold on Detroit’s offense yet, but they’ll have every chance to prove themselves on the biggest stages come playoff time.

3. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs shouldn’t be a championship contender this early into the Victor Wembanyama era, but at this point it’s impossible to keep them out of the conversation. Wembanyama hasn’t even played a playoff game yet, but he already has his team competing at the top of the West with his league-best rim protection and constantly evolving scoring profile. Wembanyama has the best supporting cast of his young career leading this charge up the standings. De’Aaron Fox has given San Antonio a sorely-needed on-ball creation element, while Stephon Castle has made big strides coming off his NBA Rookie of Year season and looks more comfortable and more efficient as a scorer despite still being a poor three-point shooter. The young guys can’t take all the credit, because veteran role players like Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, and Julian Champagnie have also been very good in what they’re asked to do. San Antonio’s profile is similar to Detroit’s as a young team that made a huge leap this season thanks to an elite defense, but the lack of shooting around a former No. 1 overall draft pick is a bit concerning. The Spurs feel like they’re at least a year ahead of schedule, but they’ve already showed they can beat OKC this season with three big wins, and that alone is enough to mark them as a serious championship contender.

2. Denver Nuggets

Will the Nuggets ever get healthy this season? If so, it still feels like they could be the best team in the league. Aaron Gordon has been bothered by another hamstring injury just like last year, and now his upstart replacement in the lineup, Peyton Watson, has been dragged down by the same injury. Nikola Jokic is back in the lineup even if he’ll probably miss too many games to win MVP, and he’s still the best player in the league for my money. Jokic has more help this year with Watson developing into a key piece, plus Jamal Murray having arguably the best season of his career, but it’s still on the Joker to put together a signature playoff run that gets this team its second championship. With a fully healthy lineup around him, I’d take Jokic’s Nuggets over anyone just as I did in the preseason, but there’s still so much uncertainty around their health that it feels like an increasingly risky bet.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder started this season at 24-1 and looked like they would be a heavy favorite to win the championship. Since then, OKC went 18-13 into the All-Star break, and looked a lot more beatable. Likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently sidelined with an abdominal injury, Jalen Williams is battling a hamstring strain after being kept out with a wrist injury to start the year, and breakout sophomore Ajay Mitchell has also been in and out of the lineup lately. OKC needs to know if Williams can get back to the All-NBA level he played at this year, because he just hasn’t been the same player this season. SGA can still take this team over the finish line, but his teammates need to hit some shots. The Thunder are still a pretty average shooting team from deep, and that can catch up to them in the playoffs. The defense will still be elite if Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Alex Caruso can all stay healthy for the playoffs, and that alone should make them the favorites before it starts. I really think SGA is a special player, and one of the three or four best guards the league has seen since Michael Jordan retired. He can carry the Thunder across the finish line to become the league’s first back-to-back champ since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors. It just doesn’t feel like this is an undeniable dynasty at this point.