The White Sox are over .500 this late in the season for the first time since 2022. Thus, the Cubs should not underestimate them. They might not be a great team, but they are certainly improved over what they were the last couple of years.

For more on the White Sox, here’s Chrystal O’Keefe, managing editor of our SB Nation White Sox site South Side Sox.

The White Sox have had a surprising start with their young core. As I write this, they sit in second place in the American League Central, just one game back from first place. They have stayed competitive in close games and have been able to come back from behind, especially in later innings. Had you told me the White Sox were down 5-1 in the third inning just last season, I would’ve assumed the game was over. But this year, an at-bat from Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, or Miguel Vargas can easily put them back in the game.

As far as pitching goes, the Cubs will see all right-handers this series in Sean Burke (3.68 ERA), our ace, Davis Martin (1.62 ERA), and a consistent veteran, Erick Fedde (3.77 ERA). The bullpen can be shaky, but it seems to be coming together as the season progresses.

The aforementioned home run hitters can certainly be a threat, but a few unsuspecting players can also be ones to watch, such as Chase Meidroth, Derek Hill and his clutch late-inning heroics, and rookie catcher Drew Romo.

Fun facts

The Cubs and White Sox have played the most evenly divided of all interleague matchups involving geographic rivals. The Cubs have won 77 games; the White Sox, 75. Oddly, the Cubs are 39-37 on the South Side, while each team has won 38 games at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs have dominated the Sox the past three seasons, winning 11 of 13 games, including both as the visiting team in 2023 and 2024, then two of three last year.

Today’s game will be the 603rd of all kinds between the teams. The Cubs are 283-307-12, a winning percentage of .480.

The Cubs are 2-4 vs. the Sox in the World Series and 204-228-12 in exhibition games, including 60-91-3 in the City Series from 1903-42, 25-26 in pre-season games in Chicago, 103-89-7 in pre-season games elsewhere and 16-22 in exhibition and benefit games played during the regular season.

In all games in Chicago, the Cubs are 180-218-5, .453.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (3-1, 3.88 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 4.25 FIP) vs. Sean Burke, RHP (2-3, 3.68 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 3.83 FIP)

Saturday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (2-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 5.67 FIP) vs. Davis Martin, RHP (5-1, 1.62 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.33 FIP)

Sunday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-2, 4.68 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 4.24 FIP) vs. Erick Fedde, RHP (0-4, 3.77 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 6.04 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, also CHSN and WCIU-Ch. 26 (Sox announcers)

Saturday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, also CHSN and WCIU-Ch. 26 (Sox announcers)

Sunday: 1:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, also CHSN and WCIU-Ch. 26 (Sox announcers)

Prediction

Well. The Cubs have won 13 of the last 15 meetings between these two teams.

But that time frame includes three 100+ loss Sox teams. They are better than that now. However, they are just 4-8 vs. teams currently over .500, and that implies the Cubs can win two of three.

So that’s my prediction. Two of three.

Up next

The Cubs return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers beginning Monday evening.

After a positive series hosting the Cubs, the Braves hope to get off to a good start in game 1 hosting the Red Sox. Spencer Strider starts for the Braves, hoping to continue his strong start in LA. The Red Sox will counter with Connelly Early.

The Red Sox have not had a great start to the season, emphasized by them cleaning house in their coaching staff. They are sitting in last place in the AL East at 18-24, with injury and performance issues abound. They rank 16th in MLB batting fWAR and 19th in pitching, though they are tied for the lead with the Cubs in fielding. This is a series the Braves should win at home and winning the first game always makes things easier.

Strider had a rough go of it at Coors Field after looking quite good in his last couple of rehab starts. He then came out and struck out 8 batters over 6.0 scoreless innings against the Dodgers, walking only 2. His fastball looked good at 96.5 MPH and good life, with his slider working and his curveball and changeup mixed in with effectiveness. Let’s hope that the Coors experience was an altitude-induced aberration and that version of Spencer Strider we saw in LA last weekend is the new normal.

Connelly Early is a fun name, but has also been a highly-touted prospect and has been a solid major-league starter in his short career. The 24-year-old lefty has a 3.28 FIP and 3.70 xFIP over 62.0 career MLB innings, with 9.87 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9. He struck out nearly 12 batters per 9 innings in the minors, but that walk rate is about in line with his minor league number, as he is also a solid ground-ball pitcher. Early features a six-pitch mix with average velocity, but good extension and movement on everything except for his slider. He throws his lively four-seamer a third of the time, with a good changeup and sinker each making up another 20% of his pitches and the slider, a sweeper, and curveball mixed in the rest of the time. Early has the looks of a good middle-rotation starter, despite his poor contact quality allowed so far this season. The Braves’ lineup is weird against lefties right now, as it is a pretty lefty-heavy lineup without Ronald Acuna, but Drake Baldwin absolutely rakes against lefties so far in his career and Ozzie gets to bat righty, which is always a good thing.

This game is heavily dependent on which version of Spencer Strider shows up, although Early is a quality arm to face for the Braves’ offense.

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, May 15, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA.

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Cardinals have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, suffering losing seasons in two of those years. After losing 84 games last year, they traded away veterans Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray. They now have the second-youngest lineup and fourth-youngest pitching staff, and have gotten off to a great start, winning 11 of their last 16.

Kansas City Royals (19-25) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (25-18) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO

Royals: 4.11 runs scored/game (25th in MLB), 4.57 runs allowed/game (19th)

Cardinals: 4.63 runs scored/game (9th), 4.58 runs allowed/game (20th)

By most offensive metrics, the Cardinals are nearly identical to the Royals, hitting .240/.321/.390 as a team, yet they have scored half a run more per game. JJ Wetherholt is a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, although he is hitting just .213/.327/.277 this month. Not only has he starred offensively, he is among the top players defensively, by Outs Above Average.

After years of disappointment, former first round pick Jordan Walker has turned a corner as is seventh in baseball with a 166 wRC+. Shortstop Masyn Winn is hitting .343/.400/.457 against lefties. Lefty Victor Scott II is hitting just .125 in 85 plate appearances against righties.

Michael Wacha starts the opener for the Royals. He has never lost to the team that made him a first round pick in 2012, going 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals. The Cardinals signed Dustin May last winter, and after two rough starts to begin the year, he has a 2.55 ERA over his last six starts. Opponents are hitting .302 against his 97 mph fastball, but he has a 31.4 percent whiff rate on his sweeper.

Noah Cameron has given up 20 runs in 25 innings over his last five starts. Kyle Leahy made 61 relief appearances for the Cardinals last year, with a 3.07 ERA. he tossed five shutout innings, allowing just two hits, but four walks against the Padres in his last start.

Andre Pallante had a 5.31 ERA last year in 31 starts, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. He relies a lot on a sinker/slider/curve combo that helps him net a 55.7 percent groundball rate. Vinnie Pasquantino is just 1-for-11 against him in their career matchups.

The Cardinals’ bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. Riley O’Brien made a career-high 31 appearances last year at age 30, and now leads the National League with 13 saves, although he has three blown saves. He throws a hard sinking fastball that generates a 61 percent groundball rate. Kansas City native Ryne Stanek joins the Cardinals bullpen with a 98 mph fastball. JoJo Romero has a reverse split, with leftie shitting .233/.303/.433 against him.

The Cardinals have a young, hungry team with a lot to prove, and Busch Stadium is always a difficult place to play. The Cards have been surprisingly mediocre at home – they’ve split their first 20 games there – but the Royals have been a dreadful road team. The Royals will need to show they can win away from Kauffman Stadium and stop the bleeding after a dreadful sweep in Chicago.

We’ve entered into a bizarro world where a series against the Astros can be viewed as a “get right” series for the Mariners. Back in April, the four-game sweep of Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and 1.5 games back in the AL West. This latest series win in Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and one game back in the AL West. The M’s will have to find a way to keep this momentum going without Cal Raleigh in the lineup which makes their margin for error much thinner than it already was. 

Somehow, the Padres have been keeping the Dodgers honest in the NL West. Sure, Los Angeles has struggled a bit, especially recently, but San Diego has also been one of the luckiest teams in baseball this year. The Friars have outperformed their Pythagorean record and BaseRuns record by four games, the second largest gap in baseball behind the Rays. It hasn’t been all luck — the team’s bullpen is elite, helping them close out close games — but the lineup has been the clutchiest in baseball by a pretty wide margin.

After sweeping the Mariners in San Diego back in April, the Padres are in the driver’s seat to win the 2026 edition of the Vedder Cup. Should the Mariners manage to sweep the Padres this weekend, tying the season series, the first tiebreaker to determine the Cup winner is run differential — San Diego won that previous series by a combined seven runs. The second tiebreaker is EV (short for Exit Velocity and Eddie Vedder) – the team with the highest exit velocity recorded on a hit will win the Vedder Cup. Dominic Canzone’s 114.1 mph double currently holds the lead should that second tiebreaker come into play.

The Padres lineup was supposed to run through their quartet of stars: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill. Thus far, only Bogaerts has been above league average; he’s currently running a 117 wRC+, his highest mark since 2023, his first season in San Diego. The biggest mystery is what happened to Tatis’s power; he hasn’t hit a home run yet this season despite maintaining excellent contact quality on his batted balls. Maybe he’s taken his new role as a part-time second baseman too seriously, turning himself into a light-hitting middle infielder.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

Randy Vásquez has spent the last few seasons as a reliable, innings-eating back-end starter for the Padres. Between 2023 and ‘24, he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified starters, though his ERA was a decent 4.27. All of a sudden, he’s throwing two ticks harder this year and he’s more than doubled his strikeout rate. The extra oomph on his pitches is obviously great, but it’s particularly helpful for Vásquez because of his seven-pitch repertoire. Discerning which of those seven pitches is heading towards the plate is a lot easier when you only have to worry about a 93 mph fastball rather than 95 mph heat. With the threat of a true, bat-missing heater in his back pocket, his entire arsenal becomes more effective because he has so many looks he can present to the batter.

With injuries ravaging their starting rotation, the Padres signed Lucas Giolito a few weeks ago with the hope that he’d be able to ramp up pretty quickly to provide some relief for the pitching staff. After four minor league starts, he’s ready to go and San Diego will be activating him for his season debut on Saturday. Giolito was a solid mid-rotation starter for Boston last year in a return to form after a few miserable years marred by injury and ineffectiveness. It wasn’t too long ago that he was the ace of the White Sox rotation, though that ceiling is probably past him. His best pitches are a tight slider and a straight changeup. Both of those secondary offerings play off his fastball to earn their deception which means the deterioration of his heater has some outsized knock-on effects on the rest of his repertoire.

From a previous series preview:

I can only assume that Walker Buehler’s 2019 and ‘21 seasons are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his reputation as he’s bounced between three different teams over the last two seasons. He put up 5.1 and 5.6 fWAR in those two campaigns but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. He hasn’t been the same since and he was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. His four-seam fastball was one of the best in baseball at his peak but it’s lost a ton of its carry and just isn’t an effective pitch anymore. He’s tried to adjust by deepening his repertoire and mixing in all of his secondary pitches a lot more often. It didn’t work in Boston last year, but the Padres desperately needed starting pitchers this spring, so they’re giving Buehler another shot to see if he can figure things out.

The Big Picture:

It’s “regional” rivalry weekend across baseball which means the two Texas teams are playing each other and the A’s are rekindling their Bay Area rivalry with San Francisco in Sacramento.

The Red Sox have returned to the Dead Ball era.

“Sell the team” chants have taken over NESN.

Alex Cora was fired at 10-17. Chad Tracy is at 8-8. Craig Breslow is probably fielding calls about Aroldis Chapman, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Garrett Whitlock…guys who can help winning clubs right now. And Boston travels to face the only team with 30 wins. Baseball being what it is, they could sweep, of course. But this is going to be a tough series. The pitching matchups might favor Atlanta despite the Red Sox having good pitchers too. Chris Sale won’t be pitching so at least one of their aces misses the weekend series.

Connelly Early takes the ball Friday night against Spencer Strider. Early is coming off an excellent outing against Tampa Bay, 7.0 scoreless innings in their lone win in three games against the AL East leader. Strider began the year on the IL and, after being knocked around in Colorado for 3.1 inning,s shut down the Dodgers for 6.0. Maybe he’ll be rusty again. Kinda of an even-odd thing. One hit, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts even during an Ohtani slump is nothing to sneeze at.

Payton Tolle, aka Mass Pike, has made three starts on at least five days rest and one start on four days rest. Those three have included two gems and one kinda OK start. In the one on four days he wasn’t as sharp and issued four walks. Hopefully the Braves are a good matchup for him. They are actually the 23rd ranked offense in walks but 24th in strikeouts. So maybe this will be a defense-heavy workload. Durbin to the rescue? Bryce Elder is a righty who strikes people out but not at the elite level. He has 53 Ks in 54.2 innings but struck out 8 and 9 batters, respectively, in his last two starts. He does have 20 walks over that time which is…fine. He only averages 87 pitches per outing so if they work a few deep counts (I know, I know) maybe they can hold him under the 6.0 inning mark. He has reverse splits and this year righties are hitting .268/.297/.310 with lefties at an insane .130/.246/.236. Basically every lefty becomes Caleb Durbin. Not great for Tracy’s matchups.

Brayan Bello just pitched on Tuesday. He could be the TBD after an opener again. That’s four days rest. Jake Bennett can’t be recalled yet. The opener is working out for him. Whatever is causing him issues at the start of the game just doesn’t seem to be there. With 6.1 and 7.0 innings and 1 run allowed each time the Red Sox should keep the arrangement going as long as they can. Grant Holmes is the weak link of the series. Not that it matters when a guy with an ERA of nearly seven can shut down the lineup and given Wednesday. He’s a righty with essentially even splits. He’s given up an OPS of .680 to same-sided hitters and .678 to lefties. He hasn’t made it into the fifth in three of his last five starts.

Ronald Acuña Jr. has been on the IL. With any luck they’ll miss him.

Drake Baldwin is having a tremendous season with 11 homers and 37 runs scored (leading the league) while slashing .295/.378/.520.

Matt Olsen has 14 homers and 15 doubles.

Old friend Dom Smith is hitting .358/.386/.543 in limited playing time.

Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michale Harris II…basically the entire lineup is dangerous. Must be nice.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, May 15: Connelly Early (3.16 ERA / 4.35 FIP) vs. Spencer Strider (2.89 ERA / 3.75 FIP)

Saturday, May 16: Payton Tolle (2.78 ERA / 2.80 FIP) vs. Bryce Elder (1.81 ERA / 3.09 FIP)

Sunday, May 17: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Grant Holmes (4.35 ERA / 5.19 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, May 15: 7:15 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, May 16: 7:15 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, May 17: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

In the meantime, imagine Craig Breslow slowly turning into a Batman villain…

Much of the Astros issues tie back to Crane’s decisions (or lack thereof). Is he willing to step up and fix them, or is he willing to eat his words?

“I made a statement the other day that as long as I’m here the window’s open. So I’ve got to live up to that.” Those are the words of Astros owner Jim Crane, as said to PaperCity Magazine’s Chris Baldwin back in February 2024.

Crane takes his belief that the “window is always open” very seriously. He is competitive, he wants to win. He’s also a very intelligent, very shrewd businessman, and he isn’t blind to what is going on with his franchise right now.

After dropping 3 of 4 at home to the Seattle Mariners, the Astros find themselves in a very tenuous position. They are now 11 games under .500 as we approach Memorial Day. Memorial Day is the unofficial quarter marker of the season, and the time when records start to matter. Being 10 games under .500 at Memorial Day is Red Alert.

There has been no end in sight for the litany of injuries this team continues to suffer from. With 14 players currently on the IL, the Astros’ depth has been seriously tested yet again, and with suboptimal results. For a team that entered the season without SPs Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter, it then lost Cy Young finalist Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and for a time Tatsuya Imai (more on him shortly).

The depth the team built in the offseason with starting pitching has been ripped through. Ryan Weiss, brought over from the KBO after several successful seasons there, has flopped. Jason Alexander, who pitched well for the team last season after they grabbed him off waivers, has also flopped. Colton Gordon, who pitched 86 sometimes good/sometimes not so good innings for Houston last season, has flopped as well.

Nate Pearson, signed in the offseason recovering from surgery with the idea he could get an opportunity to start, has already been converted to a reliever in the minors while rehabbing. Kai-Wei Teng, who succeeded as a reliever for Houston thus far, is being tried as a starter and the results have not been as strong. Cody Bolton has spot started and worked as a multi-inning reliever with middling results (4.76 ERA), and those middling results are among the most positive the team has received from is depth so far.

Crane did not want to risk exceeding the tax line in the offseason, so GM Dana Brown was forced to work in the margins. So far, those decisions have mostly failed.

The biggest moves the team made in the offseason were the trade for SP Mike Burrows and the signing of free agent Tatsuya Imai.

Burrows is a young pitcher who only had one season of MLB experience and showed some promise. He was tremendous all spring. As soon as the regular season began, he suddenly became homer prone with an inability to finish off batters. Burrows currently has allowed the most hits in the league (60 in 50.1 IP) and his HR/9 rate has increased from 1.2 last season to 1.8 this season. He has allowed 10 HR in 50.1 IP this season after allowing 13 in 96 IP last season. His walk rate from last season is about the same, but his K/9 rate is down almost a full strikeout from last year (9.1 in 2025 to 8.2 this season).

Tatsuya Imai was the top pitcher coming from Japan this season and one of the top pitchers on the free agent market. A surprisingly soft market for Japanese players allowed the Astros to swoop in and get him at a significant discount. Imai has tremendous stuff, and was a highly accomplished pitcher in Japan.

Imai dominated all spring, but like Burrows, once the regular season started, something went haywire.

Imai looked strong in the first 2 innings of his first start of the season, then experienced Steve Blass syndrome (can’t find the strike zone) in the 3rd inning against the Angels, walking a pair of guys while giving up 3 hits and had to be lifted. He was strong in his second start, and threw 5.2 scoreless with 9K. In his third start, he recorded only one out and walked 4 of the 7 batters he faced. He went on the IL with ‘arm fatigue’ afterwards.

Imai struggled to find the strike zone while rehabbing in the minors, but was called up anyway despite clearly not being ready because the Astros are desperate for starters. Imai was put in a bad spot, and predictably failed as he allowed 6 ER in 4 innings, with 5 hits, 3 walks and 2 home runs allowed. Despite having an arsenal with 5 pitches, he chose to only throw 2 of them, his fastball and his slider. The slider is what often did him in.

Perhaps the Astros could have made other decisions with their pitching, but the budget didn’t allow it. Despite Framber Valdez’ need for a personal therapist at times, he is still a top pitcher and workhorse who has pitched among the most innings in baseball the last 4 seasons. Considering the contract he eventually settled for, it seemed like a player the Astros could have re-signed if they wanted to. Maybe he had worn out his welcome in Houston, but for a team that for the past 2 seasons has been decimated by pitching injuries, he was going to be a difficult person to replace. Clearly, they have been unable to fill that void as well.

In the bullpen, Josh Hader had a setback after being shut down in August last season, and still has not returned. Of course, the team acted as if his return to start the season was a guarantee all offseason, and then his timeline suddenly started getting pushed back further and further. Hader is now expected to return approximately May 24. When it comes to a closer you have a $95M investment in, it is wise to be careful with his rehab. It also would have been wise to make better contingency plans.

Bryan Abreu, expected to fill his role as closer while Hader rehabbed, had a sudden loss of velocity and command, and started the year terribly. He was eventually removed from the closer role and put in lesser leverage situations to regain his form and confidence. While his velocity is still not where it should be from a total velocity or consistency standpoint, he has been improved in his performances of late. That said, he still doesn’t look like the Abreu who has been among the most dominant relievers in baseball the last 4 seasons.

Bennett Sousa, who assumed the mantle of the 8th inning setup man last season when Hader went down before he also went down with elbow inflammation, missed the start of the season rehabbing from an oblique strain and is now back on the IL after 5 appearances with elbow inflammation.

Steven Okert and Bryan King, both coming off career seasons, have not been as effective as last season. Their bullpen has been the worst in MLB this season.

Crane is well aware that the Golden Era of Astros baseball was rooted in pitching and run prevention. The Astros have the worst pitching in all of baseball right now, they lack the ability to fix it from within, and they have not shown that they can stay afloat until they get some of their horses like Brown and Javier back from injury.

The time for this team to act is now, before the hole they dig is too big to escape. Even in a weak division, they are burning runway in a hurry. At least one Wild Card team is likely to have a better record than the AL West division winner, possibly more. While the standings say the Astros aren’t so far back they can’t make it up, being the team that surrenders the most walks and most runs is certainly says the road will be too difficult to hoe.

Jim Crane now finds himself at a crossroads. He has chosen to have lame ducks at both manager and GM. While there is no indication that Joe Espada has lost the clubhouse or that players are tuning him out, there is also no way of knowing if Dana Brown truly has the authority to make the moves necessary to try to get this team turned around.

With an important amateur draft coming up for Houston in which they have 8 picks in the first 6 rounds, including picks 17 and 28 overall, the Astros have a chance to add some quality talent to their rebuilding farm system. Right now, 5 of Houston’s top 8 prospects are in A ball or lower. Their only two Top 100 prospects are both at Fayetteville, and both very young (Kevin Alvarez is 18, Xavier Neyens is 19).

A ‘rebuild from within’ for this team is essentially 3 seasons away at a minimum, and since Crane has stated he isn’t about a rebuild, it certainly seems something is going to be done. The question is what and in what direction?

Would Crane bite the bullet on this season, trade off veterans with 1-2 years left on expensive deals (Walker, Hader) and players the team is unlikely to be willing to re-sign to expensive, long-term deals (Pena) to shed payroll, get prospects, and re-tool in the offseason with a different group and make another run immediately?

Would the window that is always open simply be repaired? Would it be under construction for multiple seasons?

That one year vs multiple years situation is the key to the Astros doing the absolutely unthinkable, and that is trading Yordan Alvarez.

Trading the super-elite star player rarely works in baseball, because the prospects you get back – even if they pan out – very rarely pan out to be the same quality of player who is a total game changer. Boston tried this with both Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers and they are in last place in the AL East with a team that cannot hit. The Nationals did this with Juan Soto and despite 3 of the prospects they received panning out, are still under .500 and traded one of those players away already (Mackenzie Gore).

The Astros made a smart play in trading Kyle Tucker, who they knew they couldn’t re-sign. They got back a solid player in Isaac Paredes who has become a fan favorite. Hayden Wesneski has spent most of his time on IL. Cam Smith was the big prospect who they got in return, but they have pushed him too fast because they didn’t have another option for RF and his development has stalled.

In a smarter timeline, Cam Smith would have played last season at Triple A and then been promoted at some point this season. We aren’t in that timeline.

Crane is a very proud man. He does not take losing well, and he doesn’t take it lightly. However it isn’t a stretch to say that his decisions of payroll restriction on a team that has printed money for a decade and leaving his GM out to dry again (see Click, James) have led to what is mostly an untenable situation with his baseball team.

He can empower Dana Brown to make the moves that need to be made to improve the team (which could mean parting with a player like Walker, Paredes or Pena), though it’s usually hard to trade this early. He could give Brown the green light to cut some dead weight and bring up a player like Alimber Santa who is pitching very well in the pen for Sugar Land but isn’t on the 40-man roster yet.

He could give Dana Brown the direction to demote players who are badly underperforming, like Cam Smith, and give other players (Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb; Joey Loperfido when he returns from IL) a regular opportunity while letting Cam rediscover his swing in the minors. This seems to me like a simple, logical decision, but may be one Crane has to force.

Crane is not afraid to assert himself, nor is he afraid to insert himself into the day-to-day operations of the team (see Verlander, Justin; Greinke, Zack; Abreu, Jose; Montero, Rafael) for better or worse. Crane is not afraid of “the bucks stops here”, and it is something that made him the best sports franchise owner in the history of this city.

Yet here the Astros are, 45 games into a 162 game season but already 11 games under .500 and with a pitching staff both decimated by injuries and in disaster mode, needing answers and direction. There seems to be only one person who can give it to them.

He is also the person who writes the checks.

If Crane wants to stand on his word of “the window is always open”, he is going to be the one who needs to roll his sleeves up and make it work. He has done it before.

It’s decision time. Which way will Crane go? We probably find out very soon.

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Round one of the Subway Series gets going this evening, with the New York Yankees facing the New York Mets at Citi Field.

We've backed the best pitcher in baseball on the mound without much of a second thought this season, and tonight's series opener will be no different.

Read all about it in my Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 15.

Who will win Yankees vs Mets tonight: Yankees moneyline (-150)

It's Cam Schlittler day for the New York Yankees, and I'm backing them confidently up to -170.

The New York Metschase rate is nearly 32%, well above the league average. That should play directly into Schlittler's strengths as he enters this game with one of the highest chase-inducing rates in the league.

On the other side is Clay Holmes, facing the Yankees since the first time after leaving them this past offseason.

While it's not exactly quantifiable, the Yankees' familiarity with him matters. From a more tangible perspective, his groundball-dependent profile should struggle against a lineup that leads the MLB in barrel rate at 11.7%.

COVERS INTEL: Despite the names in the lineup, the New York Mets rank just 19th in hard-hit rate.

Yankees vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7 (+100)

I am fairly close to market here, but lean towards under 7 with a projection of 6.8 runs. 

A short-handed Mets lineup is going to really struggle to generate offense against Schlittler for most of the same reasons listed above. Schlittler doesn't give free passes, so you have to get contact against him.

I'm simply unsure how the Mets get much. While I think the top-heavy portion of the Yankees gets after Holmes (especially the second time around), his heavy groundball-inducing profile will have plenty of success against the bottom of the lineup. 

Yankees vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -150 | Mets +135
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+118) | Mets +1.5 (-145)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)

Yankees vs Mets trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.

How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info

Yankees vs Mets latest injuries

Yankees vs Mets weather

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