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Pitching is the currency of baseball, and if you’re drafting, college pitchers tend to be a safer bet than high school pitchers. The Royals have had some recent success drafting college arms like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, and in the later rounds, Noah Cameron. If the Royals are looking for a college pitcher with the ceiling of a frontline starter, few prospects can match Jackson Flora. The UC-Santa Barbara right-hander has emerged as the consensus top college arm in a draft class considered light on pitching, combining premium velocity with one of the deepest repertoires available.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Draft rankings:

• The Athletic: #3
• Baseball America: #4
• ESPN: #4
• MLB Pipeline: #5
• Perfect Game: #4

Flora broke out in 2026 after serving as the #2 starter for the Gauchos the previous season. The 6’5”, 205-pound right-hander dominated opposing hitters, posting a 1.05 ERA, striking out 133 hitters in 102 innings. He features a blazing fastball that a sits comfortably in the mid-to-upper 90s, generally working at 94-98 mph and frequently touching 100. Scouts praise its carry, riding life, flat approach angle, elite spin characteristics and above-average extension, all traits that make it a nightmare for hitters to square up. Baseball America grades it as a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale, while Keith Law believes it has true 70-grade velocity and life. Flora does have trouble locating the pitch consistently, and will need to refine it to reach his full potential.

What separates Flora from most college pitchers is that he is no longer simply a hard thrower. After relying primarily on a fastball-slider combination during his first two collegiate seasons, he spent the offseason refining his secondary pitches, giving him a much more complete arsenal. Law calls Flora’s changeup a 70-grade offering and describes it as one of the best in the draft. Thrown at 86-90 mph, it mirrors his fastball out of the hand before fading away from left-handed hitters. The deception is exceptional, producing whiffs on nearly half the swings against it this season. Baseball America notes that the pitch became his primary weapon against lefties after significant offseason development, giving him an answer for opposite-handed hitters and eliminating concerns about platoon splits.

Flora also gives hitters multiple breaking-ball looks. He features both a harder, upper-80s slider with cutter-like characteristics and a sweeping slider in the low 80s with significant horizontal movement. MLB Pipeline notes both versions can flash plus, while Law particularly likes the sharper slider with late downward break that generates empty swings. Flora also throws a slower curveball, although both Law and Baseball America view it as his least effective secondary pitch and more of a change-of-pace offering than a true weapon.

Scouts generally agree Flora projects comfortably as a major league starter, though opinions differ slightly on his ultimate ceiling. Baseball America see him as a mid-rotation starter, noting that while Flora possesses premium stuff and solid control, he remains somewhat raw for a top college arm. MLB Pipeline similarly praises his combination of size, power stuff and durability.

Law is the most bullish evaluator. While acknowledging some effort in the delivery and occasional inconsistencies with his release point, Law writes that Flora has “no worse than mid-rotation” potential and could eventually develop into a true ace if he sharpens his fastball command or adds a two-seam fastball.

Royals scouting director Brian Bridges took a pair of college arms early in last year’s draft, selecting Justin Lamkin out of Texas A&M and Michael Lombardi out of Tulane. Jim Callis at MLB Pipeline reports the Royals are “most likely to not take a top six player”, although he notes he has also heard they like Flora.

Baseball America writes that the college pitching depth isn’t great after Flora, so this could be the opportunity to grab a high-ceiling, high-floor arm. There is a decent chance Flora is off the board by the time the Royals select at #6, but if he somehow falls, they may have little choice but to grab him as a potential steal.

America’s Ace is headed back to the Midsummer Classic.

For the third time in his young Major League career, former LSU star Paul Skenes is headed to the MLB All-Star Game as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates and the National League.

The 2023 Dick Howser Award winner has a 3.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP so far in 18 starts in 2026, along with 119 total strikeouts.

Skenes is the 14th Tiger to make an All-Star Game, and the Tigers have now been represented 13 times in the Midsummer Classic since 2015.

For his career, Skenes has a 2.35 career ERA in three MLB seasons with 505 strikeouts in 417.2 innings.

While with the Purple and Gold, he helped lead the Tigers to the 2023 National Championship while being the best pitcher in baseball with 209 strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA in 19 starts. He was charged with only 23 earned runs and 20 walks in that magical season, leading him to be selected 1st overall by the Pirates. His teammate, Dyland Crews, was selected second by the Washington Nationals, the first time the top two picks have come from the same program.

The All-Star Game is set for Tuesday, July 14 at 7:00 on Fox.

Another week of series comes to a close on the farm for the Phillies. Here’s a look at yesterday’s action.

Lehigh Valley 5, Rochester 3

Where it pertains to the Phillies, Brad Keller had another appearance with the IronPigs, throwing a scoreless innings, striking out one. The stuff looked better, which may mean he’s close to returning. With the kids, Robert Moore had two RBI to lead the offense, Payton Henry had two hits, all of which was backed up with a solid start from Drake Fellows (5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 K) and good bullpen work.

New Hampshire 5, Reading 3

Raylin Heredia, have a day. The young outfielder went four for four with a walk and a run scored to lead an offense that couldn’t do much more. Heredia interests me since he seems to be putting up numbers each time we write these up and indeed, he has an .840 OPS with 16 home runs on the year. Alas, he also swings at virtually everything, evidenced by a walk rate that falls below 5%. In his latest prospect rankings, Matt Winkelman did not list him among his top thirty Phillies prospects. Hey, you never know, maybe he’ll discover some plate discipline and turn himself into something useful.

Rome 2, Jersey Shore 0

It’s a little concerning that the BlueClaws team is basically the desert of the Phillies’ farm system. There is barely a top prospect there and they are performing as such, Sunday’s game a microcosm. There was a decent start from Tanner Gresham (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R) that was wasted by nothing coming from the offense. I read an article this weekend about the owners’ proposal to continue outsourcing minor league development somewhere else and how it’s being felt on rosters around the minor leagues. Maybe this is the example in the Phillies’ own system, where Jersey Shore struggles to field decent rosters. At least they have Ramon Marquez (and Cody Bowker, to a smaller extent).

Clearwater 6, Ft. Myers 2

I think we need to start paying more attention to Juan Villavicencio. Having another good day where he’s 2 for 4 with an RBI double continues to raise his profile. Matthew Ferrera had a double and three RBI, Will Vierling had a two-run home run and the offense showed a pulse. There seems to be something bubbling down in Clearwater.

The Yankees have done an excellent job of sucking all the fun from baseball the past two weeks. It feels like an entire June Swoon’s worth of misery has been stuffed into the past 10 days. Unfortunately, I am extremely skeptical we are out of the woods.

The situation could be more dire, however. Thankfully, the Astros made themselves useful this weekend. A day after Yordan Alvarez burnished his MVP candidacy at the dish, outstanding pitching led Houston to another win, thereby handing the Rays a series loss and preventing Tampa from building a daunting AL East lead as the Yankees fester in their own bumbling ineptitude.

Tampa Bay Rays (52-35) 0, Houston Astros (45-47) 2

Today was far from an offensive outburst for either club. But Houston had just enough juice in their bats to eke out the win. First, Christian Walker launched a solo home run in the fourth, his 20th dinger of the season. What a difference a year makes: On this day in 2025, Walker’s season-long slump had him with a .673 OPS and a sub-.400 SLG while today, those numbers are .781 and .470, respectively.

Isaac Paredes followed with a solo shot of his own in the sixth, his 12th. That was enough offense, as the ‘Stros completely shut down Tampa. Peter Lambert continued his strong first half now that he has escaped Coors Field tossing 5.2 shutout innings before handing it over to the ‘pen. A pair of relievers got the game to the ninth, where Josh Hader loomed. Hader walked Junior Caminero (probably smart) to start the frame prior to retiring the next three Rays he saw to seal the game and series.

Other Games

Toronto Blue Jays (42-48) 0, Seattle Mariners (47-44) 4: At least the Yankees scored a run Sunday. That’s more than Tampa and Toronto can claim. Emerson Hancock took the ball and completely stifled the Jays offense. Hancock tossed seven shutout before the M’s ‘pen took over and notched the final six outs. At the plate, a Seattle backstop hitting south of the Mendoza Line was the hero. No. Not “The Big Dumper.” Mitch Garver clubbed a two-run home run, though Cal Raleigh did manage an RBI on a sac fly. Man. Has anyone had a worse follow-up season after an historically good one?

Cleveland Guardians (47-44) 6, Chicago White Sox (47-42) 7: Early, this one looked like it might be a barn burner. Five combined runs in the first. Chicago scored in each of the opening innings. First team to 10 wins? After Cleveland tied it at six in the home fifth on a Gabriel Arias three-run bomb, that looked possible. But you can’t predict baseball. The White Sox reclaimed their lead in the sixth then both clubs’ bats went silent. The ChiSox bullpen got the final nine outs, allowing only two baserunners. This is a genuinely fun turnaround for a team that was historically awful in 2024. Hopefully they can keep it up.

Daily perspective: Four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on a perfect 90-win pace. 72 games remaining. The Cubs managed one win from the Cardinals. A disappointing weekend, but a good homestand winning four of six. Fangraphs has the Cubs at 71 percent for a postseason spot. The Cubs have an off day Monday before a six-game road trip to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The early Fangraphs projection of those matchups has the Cubs somewhere between a small and medium favorite for the first five of those six games and an underdog in the sixth. An off day, then six road games, then the All-Star break provides a somewhat unusual opportunity to be a little more aggressive with bullpen usage. Matthew Boyd is in line for the two start week. I’m not sure there is per se a better option right now. I haven’t followed injury notes, but Fangraphs thinks Jameson Taillon takes the Saturday start (and no starts for Javier Assad). Taillon threw 3.1 innings in a rehab start for South Bend Sunday, allowed one run, struck out two and threw 45 pitches. So he and Assad could possibly piggyback on Saturday.

Enough perspective for one day. That feels like it at least could be a decent trip. So it’s a good thing the Cubs didn’t spoil the homestand by getting swept. Four of six feels pretty good against two teams that Fangraphs thinks have 41.5 percent and 12.5 percent likelihood of being in the playoffs. Putting a nail in a in no way sealed coffin for the Padres was terrific. That team might be in some amount of disarray right now, but with their bullpen and some of the bats they have there, that’s a team that has a puncher’s chance in a series.

The Cardinals have a tough road ahead and appear to be the third (or fourth) best team in their own division. That’s a tough, though clearly not impossible, road to the playoffs. I think if I could flat out pick where the wins fell, I’d have chosen two in each series, but I really don’t mind the 3/1 split. This is not a year where I feel it totally needed to be 3/1 with the Cardinals being the three.

What went right on Sunday? Javier Assad had a decent start, though he didn’t finish five, using 80 pitches to get two outs into the fifth. He allowed two hits and two walks. The Cubs rode two Cardinals errors in the decisive sixth inning to put together a four run inning. A walk and two hit by pitches in the first inning by Cardinal pitchers also helped the Cub offense.

Long story short, the Cubs were better on Sunday, but they really won this one because the Cardinals were pretty sloppier. Drew Pomeranz returned to the team and appears to be a potential contributor. We’ll see how spotty that will be. But obviously this team had a lot of familiarity with him and a ton of need. The team continues to keep their eyes open. There are a couple of more veteran relievers throwing innings in Iowa for the organization, as the team looks to try to float their injuries until some of the plethora of injured Cub pitchers start working their way back.

I will hat tip that the Cubs led 6-3 after six and ultimately won a game. I’ve belabored a lot that the Cubs really haven’t been involved in games like this, games where the team leads after six and turns it over to the pen to nail it down. I’m not sure how often they can throw Jacob Webb for two innings to nail down a save like this, but he hadn’t thrown all weekend and won’t be needed Monday, so it was a spot where this was an option. Webb has looked better, but knowing they wanted him to get six outs while also knowing he had a three-run lead to work with, this was a fine performance.

Webb now has three saves, matching Daniel Palencia for the team lead. It was a rare three-save week for the Cubs. And true to form for this team, the saves were recorded by three different pitchers. An interesting question is what will the Cubs end up with more of: Different pitchers with saves or walk-off wins? With 10 different players already having saves, you’d knee jerk that it’s going to be hard to find too many other guys to get saves. Pomeranz comes to mind right away. Phil Maton is the only other semi-obvious candidate. But I’ll eat my hat if the Cubs don’t trade for at least one reliever later this month. Then there are also those two veteran arms working at Iowa. Walk-offs are not a thing that are guaranteed to happen. I would probably say walk-offs are at least a 60-40 favorite.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner had two plate appearances in scoring opportunities and had a sacrifice fly and an RBI-single, scoring two of six runners he batted with on base on the day.
• He had all of those opportunities because Michael Busch (single, two hit by pitch) and Carson Kelly (single, two walks) kept getting on base. Each scored a run.
• A hat tip to Jacob Webb for six outs even though he allowed a hit and a walk and an inherited run.
• Obligatory PCA update: two singles, hit by pitch, two stolen bases and a run scored. Pete is now on pace for a 30/40 season with 74 walks, 88 RBI and 101 runs. His ascendency to Superstar has been so much fun to watch.

Game 90, July 5: Cubs 6, Cardinals 4 (50-40)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Javier Assad (.252). 4.2 IP, 17 BF, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 2 K
• Hero: Michael Busch (.204). 1-2, 2 HBP, R
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.158). 1-4, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Tyler Ferguson (-.336). 0.2 IP, 3 BF, H, ER
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.089). 0-3, HBP (Cards hit four Cubs).
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.072). 0-4

WPA Notes: Despite Ryan Rolison starting the sixth inning meltdown for the Cub pen, most of the WPA falls on Ferguson because they scored while he was pitching. Webb gets knocked for allowing the inherited runner to score. Absent that run, he slips past Dansby for third. Nico’s day doesn’t land higher because his RBI-single didn’t really massive move the needle on expected scoring. Run expectancy thought the Cubs would score 1.83 more runs in the inning before Hoerner’s single and after his RBI-single, total run expectancy for the inning was 2.48.

WPA Play of the Game: Jordan Walker’s three-run homer off of Tyler Ferguson with one out in the sixth turned a two run deficit into a one run lead. (.370)

Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson batted with runners on first and second with one out, scored tied in the sixth. He grounded to third, but Jose Fermin’s error led to a run and runners on second and third. (.198)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 89 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 83% of 36 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Michael Busch +14
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13
• Seiya Suzuki -13.5

Up Next: That off day Monday. Matthew Boyd (3-1, 5.08) is scheduled for the first game of the trip. He’s 1-0 with three runs allowed in 9.2 innings since coming off of the IL. He threw 76 pitches in each of the two starts. I’d imagine at this point situation would dictate possibly going a little farther than that going forward.

The 42-49 Orioles have lost six of 10 and have a -28 run differential. They feel like the fifth best team in a division with two titans in it (though the Yankees are free falling right now). 27-year-old right Shane Baz (4-8, 4.19) will get the start. I know him best for his four years here in Tampa with the Rays, though he was the 12th overall pick of the Pirates back in 2017. He had a good start last time against the White Sox in Baltimore, allowing two runs over seven innings. He’s got a 3.30 ERA over his last seven starts (43.2 IP), so this is definitely no gimme.

The Orioles are 12th in runs scored in MLB. Their issue is the eighth most runs allowed. They are 13th in runs allowed by relievers, so the starters have been the problem. If you follow that set of stats around the circle, this is a decent chance for the Orioles to win a game.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are short home favorites against the New York Yankees, but I’m taking the near-pick’em road side.

Griffin Jax’s contact profile gives New York a buy-low power matchup, while Cam Schlittler gives the Yankees an edge.

Here are my Yankees vs Rays predictions and MLB picks for July 6.

Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Yankees Moneyline (-101)

I’m betting the New York Yankees for 2 units and would play them down to -135.

Cam Schlittler is coming off a rough start against the Detroit Tigers, and New York is in its worst stretch of the season, but this price has overcorrected.

My projection is well off the market (around -150), and Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax gives the Yankees the right rebound matchup. Jax has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and .483 xSLG, while New York still owns a 9.9% team barrel rate.

With Schlittler’s starter edge, I’m buying the dip. 

COVERS INTEL:Jax’s 5.37 expected ERA is the hidden concern. His 3.45 ERA looks playable, but it's a screaming signal for overdue regression.

Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)

I’m playing the Over because this number is low enough to buy a Yankees offensive rebound against the right starter. Jax's barrel rate is a problem against an offense that still ranks in the top three of the sport in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. 

This enables at least one crooked number inning, and that may be all you need.

Schlittler is the better arm, but asking the Rays to score around 3 runs isn't out of reach. I'd play this down to -130, with an 8.2-run projection.

Yankees vs Rays weather

Excessive heat with a chance of showers is expected in the Tampa Bay area tonight. 

Yankees vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Rays -120
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Rays -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Rays trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.

How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info

Yankees vs Rays latest injuries

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals wrap up a three-game set this afternoon, with Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound for the visitors.

My Phillies vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks lean toward Philly taking the finale, given their ace's recent dominance. 

Who will win Phillies vs Royals today: Phillies -1.5 (-126)

Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has been brilliant this season, compiling a 2.00 ERA overall. That success hasn't stopped lately, either. Sanchez sports a 2.69 FIP across his last two outings, allowing just 0.75 HR/9. 

On the other side, the Kansas City Royals send Noah Cameron to the hill. He owns an alarming 9.38 xERA over the last two weeks. He's allowed 11 earned runs across his previous two outings. 

Cameron's recent struggles are a recipe for disaster against a hot Phillies offense. They own a .211 ISO over the last six contests and a 44% hard-hit rate as a lineup during that span. 

Sanchez deals, and the Phillies jump on Cameron. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

COVERS INTEL: Cameron has surrendered 2.08 HR/9 and walked 6.23 hitters per nine over his last two outings, compared to 1.08 HR/9 and 2.68 BB/9 overall this season.  

Phillies vs Royals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+101)

I expect the Phillies to do the majority of the scoring off Cameron, but Sanchez doesn't need to have a poor outing for this game to reach the Over. Even a couple of runs from Kansas City before the bullpens take over would put this total in a favorable position

When it comes to the bullpens, Kansas City's relievers have posted a 4.50 FIP over the last week, allowing a 42.6% hard-hit rate. They've held their own, but the bullpen hasn't been unstoppable, either. As for the Phillies pen, they've compiled a 3.86 FIP over that same span, walking 4.85 hitters per nine. 

With a relatively low total and the Phillies offense capable of putting up five or six runs of their own, a 7-2, 8-3 scoreline seems realistic here. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

Phillies vs Royals weather

Conditions should be favorable for offense this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s under mostly clear skies. Winds are expected to remain light at around 5–6 mph. The warm weather could help well-hit balls carry a bit farther, giving hitters a slight boost, though the starting pitching matchup will likely remain the biggest factor in determining the outcome.

Phillies vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -194 | Royals +186
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (-122) | Royals +1.5 (+117)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Phillies vs Royals trend

The Phillies have cashed the team total Over in 10 of their last 14 games for +5.85 units and a 36% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Royals.

How to watch Phillies vs Royals and game info

Phillies vs Royals latest injuries

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After eight grueling games the San Diego Padres have ended their losing streak with a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of their four-game series at Dodger Stadium. Not only was it the end of the losing streak, but it was also the end of the San Diego road trip that saw them get swept by the Chicago Cubs in three games and drop the first three games to Los Angeles.

JP Sears was the unlikeliest of heroes for the Padres, making his third start since being called up from Triple-A El Paso. The left-hander completed five scoreless innings and allowed just one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. Sears actually had a no-hitter into the fifth inning but allowed a two-out single to Miguel Rojas before finishing the inning with a strikeout of Alex Freeland. Sears recorded three of his five strikeouts in his final inning of work.

San Diego gave Sears a 1-0 lead in the top of the fourth inning after a Manny Machado walk and a Gavin Sheets single. Jackson Marrill came to the plate with runners at first and second and two outs in the inning. He then hit a sharp ground ball through the right side of the infield which allowed Machado to score from second base to give the Padres the lead. San Diego added to its total in the seventh when Sung-Mun Song walked and stole second before Luis Campusano singled to open the inning. Fernando Tatis Jr. beat out an infield single and Song came into score to give the Padres a 2-0 lead. Miguel Andjuar followed Tatis with a flyball out, which brought Machado to the plate with two on and one out. The third baseman connected on a ball that went out over the center field wall to push the San Diego lead to 5-0.

Los Angeles responded in the bottom of the seventh inning after a leadoff walk to Teoscar Hernandez. Alex Call struck out for the first out of the inning and Kyle Tucker singled to right field off new reliever Adrian Morejon. Freeland followed with a single that allowed Hernandez to score to get the Dodgers on the board, 5-1. After a strikeout of Tommy Edman, Morejon allowed a single to Shohei Ohtani, and the Padres lead was cut to 5-2. Morejon ended the threat and the inning with a three-pitch strikeout of Andy Pages.

San Diego mounted another scoring threat in the top of the ninth with two on and one out but a groundout from Sheets and a flyout from Ty France left the runners at second and third and gave Mason Miller an opportunity to come in for the save in the bottom of the ninth. The right-hander made quick work of his inning and struck out Tucker before getting Freeland and Dalton Rushing to flyout.

Jake Peavy said it best on the NBC broadcast, for the Padres to get back into the playoff picture their stars have to star and that is what Tatis and Machado did in the final game against the Dodgers. Tatis finished 3-for-5 with an RBI and a run scored, while Machado finished 1-for-2 with three walks, three RBI and two runs scored. Of course, the biggest contribution was the three-run home run from Machado in the seventh which proved to be a game winning home run.

San Diego returns to Petco Park to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Two members of the San Diego coaching staff, including manager Craig Stammen, were ejected just three pitches into the game against Los Angeles on Sunday.

• The Padres damaged their playoff chances with their long losing streak, which means they now have to play catchup according to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

• El Paso got an 11-2 win thanks to home runs from Marcos Castanon and Nick Schnell.

Baseball News:

• Eury Perez pitched seven perfect innings for the Miami Marlins before he was taken out of the game in their 9-8 win over the Athletics.

• Joe Ryan dominated the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins got a series win.

• The Chicago Cubs solved the St. Louis Cardinals and earned a 6-4 win over their rival on Sunday.

• The Milwaukee Brewers edged the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 3-2 win.

• Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Konnor Griffin showed why he was the MLB’s top prospect with two stellar defensive plays against the Washington Nationals in Pittsburgh’s 11-5 win.

• The New York Mets almost squandered a seven-run ninth inning lead, but held on for a one-run win over the Atlanta Braves.

• Kyle Karros hit an eighth inning home run to lead the Colorado Rockies past the San Francisco Giants.

I might be one of the few writers here that has no experience in radio, but I remember my old journalism classes and one of the things they taught us is that the average audience turns over every 15 to 20 minutes. That was literally in the last century and I’m sure that ballpark has changed some, but the concept is still very much the same. I try to take the same concept to the writing game. There will be new readers all the time, so it pays off to revisit concepts every now and then.

Offensive efficiency is a very simple stat. You simply take the total percentage of base runners that have crossed home plate. Obviously, it’s not absolutely perfect. You get hitters that reach on an error and baseball-reference.com doesn’t keep track of those. It is what we in the stats world would call noise where we assume it is fairly constant throughout the 30 teams and simply move on. So, you add up hits, walks, and hit by pitches and then divide runs into that.

The results are important, but the why is probably more important. The main reason we do it is to guard against what we might call regional bias. In other words, we watch the Astros and mainly the Astros. So, it often seems they are bad at leaving runners on base and on third with less than two outs in particular. Are they really bad in comparison with the rest of the league? That’s where offensive efficiency comes in.

Of course, tracking this data tells us many other things. Where do the Astros rank in total base runners? Where do they rank in walks? Is this a good offense overall? They were one of the worst offenses in the AL last season and that was particularly true in terms of offensive efficiency. They ranked 13th out of 15 AL teams in that department and it got both hitting coaches fired. So, are the new hitting coaches doing any better? The stats below are the team stats coming into the fourth of July.

The average is pretty telling here and we can break this down with all kinds of regression analysis, but we should probably pair this down and keep it simple. The Astros have an above average offense in the American League. They are above average in runs scored, hits, total base runners, and offensive efficiency. They only really lag in one major category and that is walks. Of course, lagging needs to be put in air quotes. They are more or less league average in that category.

Numbers are always the easiest part of statistical analysis. The whys and what fors are the hardest. Are the gains primarily because of the hitting coaches or are they because Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing the best baseball of his career? Most would probably point towards the latter. In fact, if you do nothing but look at Alvarez and Christian Walker then you probably have seen all of the gains the Astros have made between 2025 and 2026.

Do the hitting coaches deserve credit for that? That’s a harder question. Is Walker’s resurgence due to adjustments he has made or simple regression to the mean? It’s always some of both in these instances. In other words, Walker was probably not going to be as bad regardless of who the hitting coach was. Suffice it to say, this is the Walker the Astros thought they were signing. When you couple that with Alvarez and a healthy Isaac Paredes and you have the bulk of your offense right there.

Our default expectation is always a regression to the mean. In other words, teams will eventually tighten and get closer to the average. In the Astros case, the expectation is some form of slowing down. Of course, the components can change and if they do then the results can change. Adding Lamont Wade and Taylor Trammel to the starting lineup could change that some. A trade down the line could change that some as well. Getting Jeremy Pena back and hitting the way he was before he went on IR could change that calculus some.

The worry is that both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are due for positive regression. The Astros have worked very hard to get back into the race, but their finish depends not only on their ability to keep their head above water but on the other teams in the AL West continuing to struggle. A large part of that is going to be to see what the other teams in the division do at the trade deadline.

Next time around we will look at the pitching side of this equation. We know (or think we know) that the Astros are one of the worst pitching teams in baseball. Is that simply a function of allowing too many base runners or have they been inefficient in limiting those base runners from crossing home plate? Stay tuned for the next lab. In the meantime, what do you think is the best way to avoid falling back to the pack? What changes would you make?