Fabian Lysell arrives in Denver as the latest low-risk, high-upside swing for a Colorado Avalanche team that has made a habit of betting on talent others couldn’t quite unlock.
The track record is real. Andre Burakovsky turned a fresh start into a Stanley Cup ring in Colorado. Valeri Nichushkin—once written off by some around the league—became an indispensable piece of a championship core despite a turbulent path that included a recent trade to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for the 43rd overall pick in the NHL Draft.
Valeri Nichushkin was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday for three draft picks. Credit: Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
Nichushkin’s own path serves as a reminder of what’s possible. After his career stalled with the Dallas Stars for similar reasons—questions about consistency, fit, and whether his game would ever fully translate at the NHL level—he arrived in Colorado and, over time, developed into one of the Avalanche’s most important players and a key piece of a Stanley Cup-winning core.
Now, it’s Lysell’s turn to try and follow that same blueprint.
The Avalanche acquired the former first-round pick from the Boston Bruins in exchange for Ivan Ivan, a depth forward who spent much of last season with the Colorado Eagles but left a strong impression on teammates and within the organization.
Drafted 21st overall in 2021, Lysell has appeared in just 12 NHL games to this point in his career. The flashes are easy to spot—the pace, the hands, the creativity that once made him a top prospect—but he has yet to find real traction at the NHL level or steady consistency in Providence.
A 50-point season in 2023-24 looked like a potential turning point. Instead, it was followed by 34 points in 52 games in 2024-25 and 42 points in 57 games this past season, leaving his development stuck in neutral rather than accelerating forward.
Part of that responsibility sits with the player, as it does with any prospect trying to establish himself. But there’s also a broader question of fit and development in Boston—whether Lysell was ever given the runway to lean fully into the offensive instincts that made him a first-round pick, or instead asked to adapt before his game was truly ready.
Bruins general manager Don Sweeney hinted at that complexity when addressing the move.
“He hasn't fully grasped at the NHL level what it probably requires to play each and every night. He took ownership of that today,” Sweeney said. “We took ownership that, could we have done more and better in supporting him? Probably.”
Now, the reset begins.
When Lysell eventually makes his way to Denver for offseason training and pre-camp preparation, the spotlight shifts to how quickly he can translate talent into trust at the NHL level—and whether the Avalanche can unlock something Boston couldn’t consistently sustain.
Before turning pro in North America, Lysell developed in Sweden, spending parts of two seasons with Luleå HF in the SHL while also starring for Frölunda’s junior program. He posted three points (2G, 1A) in 26 SHL games during the 2020-21 season.
After being selected in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft, he came to North America and found immediate offensive success with the WHL’s Vancouver Giants in 2021-22, finishing with 62 points (22 goals, 40 assists) in 53 regular-season games. He elevated further in the postseason with 21 points (4 goals, 17 assists) in 12 playoff games, leading the WHL in assists that spring.
Internationally, Lysell has represented Sweden at the 2021 U18 World Championship and back-to-back World Junior Championships in 2022 and 2023, earning bronze medals at both the U18 and 2022 World Junior tournaments.
For Colorado, the talent is the easy part to see. The harder question is whether structure, opportunity, and patience under Jared Bednar can turn it into something permanent.
Fabian Lysell arrives in Denver as the latest low-risk, high-upside swing for a Colorado Avalanche team that has made a habit of betting on talent others couldn’t quite unlock.
The track record is real. Andre Burakovsky turned a fresh start into a Stanley Cup ring in Colorado. Valeri Nichushkin—once written off by some around the league—became an indispensable piece of a championship core after arriving in Denver via a change of scenery.
Valeri Nichushkin's impact on the Colorado Avalanche was undeniable. Credit: Jerome Miron - Imagn Images
Nichushkin’s path stands as the clearest blueprint. After his career stalled with the Dallas Stars amid questions about consistency, fit, and whether his game would ever fully translate at the NHL level, he found new life in Colorado and eventually developed into one of the Avalanche’s most important players.
Now, it’s Lysell’s turn to see if he can follow a similar trajectory.
The Avalanche acquired the former first-round pick from the Boston Bruins in exchange for Ivan Ivan, a depth forward who spent much of last season with the Colorado Eagles but left a strong impression on teammates and within the organization.
Drafted 21st overall in 2021, Lysell has appeared in just 12 NHL games to this point in his career. The flashes are easy to spot—the pace, the hands, the creativity that once made him a top prospect—but he has yet to find real traction at the NHL level or steady consistency in Providence.
A 50-point season in 2023-24 looked like a potential turning point. Instead, it was followed by 34 points in 52 games in 2024-25 and 42 points in 57 games this past season, leaving his development stuck in neutral rather than accelerating forward.
Part of that responsibility sits with the player, as it does with any prospect trying to establish himself. But there’s also a broader question of fit and development in Boston—whether Lysell was ever given the runway to lean fully into the offensive instincts that made him a first-round pick, or instead asked to adapt before his game was truly ready.
Bruins general manager Don Sweeney hinted at that complexity when addressing the move.
“He hasn't fully grasped at the NHL level what it probably requires to play each and every night. He took ownership of that today,” Sweeney said. “We took ownership that, could we have done more and better in supporting him? Probably.”
Now, the reset begins.
When Lysell eventually makes his way to Denver for offseason training and pre-camp preparation, the spotlight shifts to how quickly he can translate talent into trust at the NHL level—and whether the Avalanche can unlock something Boston couldn’t consistently sustain.
Before turning pro in North America, Lysell developed in Sweden, spending parts of two seasons with Luleå HF in the SHL while also starring for Frölunda’s junior program. He posted three points (2G, 1A) in 26 SHL games during the 2020-21 season.
After being selected in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft, he came to North America and found immediate offensive success with the WHL’s Vancouver Giants in 2021-22, finishing with 62 points (22 goals, 40 assists) in 53 regular-season games. He elevated further in the postseason with 21 points (4 goals, 17 assists) in 12 playoff games, leading the WHL in assists that spring.
Internationally, Lysell has represented Sweden at the 2021 U18 World Championship and back-to-back World Junior Championships in 2022 and 2023, earning bronze medals at both the U18 and 2022 World Junior tournaments.
For Colorado, the talent is the easy part to see. The harder question is whether structure, opportunity, and patience under Jared Bednar can turn it into something permanent.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 22: Luis Lara #89 of the Milwaukee Brewers bats during the third inning of the spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Camelback Ranch on February 22, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jeremy Chen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Luis Lara looked like he had solved the biggest question surrounding his prospect profile.
Through May 6, the recently extended outfield prospect had already hit seven home runs, shattering his previous career-high of four. It looked like he’d finally unlocked his power.
Nearly two months later, he still has exactly seven home runs.
March 27–May 6: 7 HR, 4 2B, 1 3B
May 7–June 27: 0 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B
The initial surge vaulted Lara up prospect rankings. Baseball America now ranks him No. 52 in all of baseball, while MLB Pipeline has him No. 89. Yet Pipeline still grades his power as just a 40 on the 20–80 scouting scale, well behind his 70-grade defense and 60-grade arm and speed.
So which version of Lara should Brewers fans believe? Was his early-season power surge real? To answer that question, we need to look beyond the home run totals and into Lara’s underlying Statcast data.
As the Brewers saw during their recent series in Las Vegas, Triple-A environments can be considerably more favorable for hitters than major league parks. Home run totals alone don’t necessarily tell the whole story. To determine whether Lara’s early power surge represented a legitimate change in skill, we need to look beneath the results.
Thanks to the recent expansion of Statcast to Triple-A, we can do exactly that. Lara’s batted-ball data provides four useful indicators of raw power: average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Average Exit Velocity: 80.68 mph
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 99.4 mph
Maximum Exit Velocity: 109 mph
Hard-hit Rate: 20.72%
At first glance, Lara’s Statcast profile doesn’t scream plus raw power. His average exit velocity is below average, and his 90th-percentile exit velocity is solid rather than elite. On the other hand, his 109-mph maximum exit velocity shows the raw strength is there when he squares the ball up.
The disconnect is consistency. Lara’s 20.7% hard-hit rate is well below the roughly 33% major league average, suggesting he currently doesn’t produce loud contact often enough to project as a true power hitter.
Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as one struck at least 95 mph because that’s where offensive production begins to spike. Leaguewide, balls hit at least 95 mph produce dramatically better results than those hit below that threshold. In 2023, hitters batted .506 on hard-hit balls compared to just .221 on all other balls, which is why hard-hit rate has become one of the most useful indicators of a hitter’s ability to consistently drive the baseball.
Lara’s hard-hit rate sits at just 20.7%, well below the roughly 33% mark that represents a typical major league average. In other words, while Lara has demonstrated that he can hit the ball exceptionally hard, he simply hasn’t done so often enough for the data to suggest a meaningful change in his underlying power profile.
The ideal comparison would be Lara’s Statcast profile this season versus last season. Unfortunately, he spent all of last year in Double-A, and Statcast data from that level isn’t publicly available.
Instead, we can compare the two very different halves of Lara’s 2026 season: the six-week stretch in which he hit seven home runs and the seven-week drought that followed. That split offers the clearest window into whether anything actually changed beneath the surface.
March 27 – May 6:
Average Exit Velocity: 83 mph
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 100.2 mph
Maximum Exit Velocity: 109 mph
Hard-hit Rate: 28.25%
May 7 – June 27:
Average Exit Velocity: 80.05 mph
90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 98.9 mph
Maximum Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph
Hard-hit Rate: 18.34%
Lara’s average, 90th-percentile, and maximum exit velocities didn’t change drastically.
What jumps out is his hard-hit rate, which dropped by roughly one-third. Combined with his average exit velocity falling nearly three mph, it suggests that while the shape of Lara’s contact remained largely unchanged, the quality of that contact declined. But why?
My first thought was that perhaps Lara’s launch angle had changed. It hadn’t. His average launch angle fell from 19 degrees before May 7 to just 18 degrees afterward — a negligible difference.
Next, I wondered whether Lara had changed his approach at the plate, sacrificing power for contact. The numbers don’t support that idea either. Through May 6, he struck out 18 times in 123 plate appearances (14.6%). Since then, he’s struck out 25 times in 172 plate appearances (14.5%). His batting average also remained remarkably consistent, dropping only from .333 to .324.
Finally, I considered whether the power outage could simply be the product of bad luck. If that were the case, one would expect fewer balls in play to fall for hits. Instead, the opposite happened. Lara’s BABIP actually increased from .347 before May 7 to .391 afterward, suggesting that balls in play were becoming hits more often, not less.
The biggest change appears to be in Lara’s approach at the plate. His first-pitch strike rate — the percentage of plate appearances that began with an 0-1 count — rose from 38.9% to 44.8%, almost exactly mirroring the increase in his overall swing rate (38.3% to 43.2%). His chase rate climbed slightly, his contact rate dipped slightly, and his in-zone swing rate jumped from 57.6% to 63.9%.
All things considered, those numbers suggest Lara became more aggressive after his power surge. Pitchers weren’t attacking the strike zone any more frequently, and aside from a modest decrease in fastballs, they weren’t pitching him that differently. Instead, Lara appears to have expanded his swing decisions. Because he’s such a good contact hitter, that added aggression didn’t translate into more strikeouts or a lower batting average. It may, however, have led him to swing at pitches he was less likely to drive.
If that’s the case, the issue isn’t that Lara’s raw power disappeared. It’s that he stopped getting to it as consistently. The underlying strength is still there; the challenge now is being selective enough to access it more often.
As I wrote about last week, even if Lara never develops into a 20-home-run hitter, extending him was still a good idea. A plus defender in center field with elite speed, excellent bat-to-ball skills, and an above-average on-base profile has plenty of value on his own.
The encouraging part is that the raw power doesn’t appear to be missing — it simply isn’t showing up consistently. Lara has already demonstrated that he can drive the baseball at 109 mph, an exit velocity that few players reach by accident. The challenge isn’t adding strength; it’s learning to produce that kind of contact more often by continuing to make quality swing decisions.
That’s one reason the extension makes sense. Milwaukee has built one of baseball’s strongest player-development systems by helping talented hitters maximize the tools they already possess. Lara already has the bat speed to produce 109-mph exit velocities. If the Brewers can help him pair that raw power with more consistent swing decisions, there’s another level for his offensive game to reach. And if they can’t, his defense, speed, and contact ability still give him the profile of an everyday major leaguer.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 16: Tanner Banks #58 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch during a game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on June 16, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies won 8-2. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Let’s dive into the action!
Lehigh Valley 8, Syracuse 6
The IronPigs score six runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to take the 8-6 lead that would go onto be the final score. Kolby Allard threw 5.1 innings of 6-hit, 3-run ball. Old friend Tanner Banks struggles in his 1.1 innings of ball with 3 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks. The offense had the long ball working with Dylan Moore (3), Bryan De La Cruz (12), Dylan Carlsson (5), and Rene Pinto (1) all mashing one. Shockingly Felix Reyes DID NOT hit one tonight, go figure.
Reading 14, Altoona 5
In one of Jean Cabrera’s best outings of the season, he goes 4 innings giving up only 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks. Progress! Like the IronPigs, the ball was flying out of the park up in Altoona with Luke Ritter (1,2), Bryan Rincon (11), Raylin Heredia (14), Alex Binelas (18) and Bryson Ware (13) all sharing in the glory.
Brooklyn 9, Jersey Shore 1
A rough one all-around for the BlueClaws as Tanner Gresham and Titan Kennedy-Hayes combine giving up 8 runs (6 earned) over 6.1 innings. Devin Saltiban was 2 for 4 on the night and Tyler Pettorini had the only extra-base hit for Jersey Shore.
Clearwater 17, Jupiter 6
Somehow the Threshers scored 17 runs and only had one homer (a two-run shot from Griffin Burkholder, his 7th). They had 7 run first inning and a 6 run 7th innings. Ryan Degges started the game on rehab, giving up 1 run in 2 innings of work. Zuher Yousuf pitched the bulk of the game with 4 innings of work, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks.
Jacob Misiorowski. Sheesh. Why can’t the Cubs find and develops guys with just 80 percent of his ability (because there’s no possibility of hitting 100 percent because he’s a freak (respectively)).
Kudos to Seiya Suzuki for picking out a 90 mile per hour slider and sending it over the wall. And for Colin Rea’s yeoman performance by finishing five innings of work, allowing just one run out of eight baserunners and striking out four.
But – the bullpen. Ethan Roberts blew a save (in the sixth) and Jayden Murray allowed a home run to blow the game open. These men would be used in mop-up duty in a normal Cubs bullpen, but it is what it is. They need help here as much as starting pitching.
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Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Hoby Milner to IL, Tyler Ferguson Recalled. “The Cubs have placed reliever Hoby Milner on the IL with appendicitis, which was probably caused by pitching way too often.”
Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): Try to Laugh Before You Cry: Hoby Milner to the Injured List. “I know there’s an instinct to blame the Cubs training staff for the, at this point, HISTORIC volume and rate of pitching injuries this staff has sustained, but most of these things aren’t even close to something within their control.”
Albert Collins (October 1, 1932 – November 24, 1993) was an American electric blues guitarist and singer with a distinctive guitar style. He was noted for his powerful playing and his use of altered tunings and a capo. His long association with the Fender Telecaster led to the title “The Master of the Telecaster”.
Robert Cray (born August 1, 1953) is an American blues guitarist and singer. He has led his own band and won five Grammy Awards. By the age of 20, Cray had seen his heroes Albert Collins, Freddie King and Muddy Waters in concert and decided to form his own band. Two albums on HighTone Records in the mid-1980s, Bad Influence and False Accusations, were moderately successful in the United States and in Europe, where he was building a reputation as a live artist.[4] In 1985, he released the album Showdown! with his hero Albert Collins and Johnny Copeland.
John Copeland (March 27, 1937 – July 3, 1997) was an American Texas blues guitarist and singer. In 1983, he was named Blues Entertainer of the Year by the Blues Foundation. He is the father of blues singer Shemekia Copeland. In 2017, Copeland was posthumously inducted into the Blues Hall of Fame.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
Jun 26, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman (15) celebrates hitting a two run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the ninth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
Hunter Goodman is having a fairly different season than he did when he was an All-Star in 2025. He’s chasing and striking out more and hitting less for average. The trade-off is that the 26-year-old catcher is obliterating baseballs at an alarming pace.
Between Friday and Saturday, Goodman hit four home runs. He hit home runs in three straight at-bats, and hit three home runs on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. He became the 21st player in Rockies history to hit three home runs in a game.
What’s more wild about Goodman’s season is that the bulk of the damage is coming away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. After Saturday, his 18 home runs on the road prior to the All-Star Game are the most in franchise history. This sets him above Larry Walker, who hit 16 home runs before the break in his 1997 MVP campaign.
Goodman now has 25 home runs this season. He is the fourth catcher in Major League history to have 25 or more home runs before the All-Star Game, and the first to do it since Hall of Famer Johnny Bench in 1970 with 28. There are 15 games left for the Rockies to play before the break, and Goodman will have the chance to pass catchers Iván Rodríguez (26) and Bench for their pre-break home run totals. He can also become the first Rockies player in franchise history to hit 30 or more home runs before the break.
Recently we explored the idea of trading Hunter Goodman as part of the Rockies’ rebuild. However, fans were in agreement that Goodman is one to keep and build around for the future. With him proving his 31 home run season in 2025 wasn’t a fluke and performing more than adequately behind the plate–and getting excellent results from ABS challenges while doing so–Hunter Goodman might be proving a perfect piece to build around.
With that being said, here’s what our staff here at Purple Row had to say this week:
Back near the end of 2022, I praised Hunter Goodman as an unsung prospect who could even stick around as a catcher if the Rockies didn’t choose to move him to first base or the outfield. Nearly four years later, Goodman is one of the Rockies’ most valuable players and appears to be on track to become a franchise great.
Who is a prospect you ended up being right about–for better or for worse–in Rockies history? Let us know in the comments!
The Warriors don’t have their hilarious in-house back-and-forth between Jimmy Butler and Buddy Hield anymore, but a new frenemies situation might be developing in its place.
And it appears that college rivalry isn’t lost on these two new teammates, who already have an ongoing beef on social media.
Here’s how it started. During Lendeborg’s introductory press conference on Friday, the first-round pick was asked if he had already talked to Green and Steph Curry yet.
“Steph actually welcomed both of us in the group chat the night of the draft, so when [Lajae Jones] got drafted and I got drafted,” Lendeborg told reporters. “And I reached out to him yesterday. I asked one quick question, and then I reached out to Draymond as well. I haven’t got that response back yet from Draymond, but …”
Lendeborg laughed, while general manager Mike Dunleavy interjected to add, “Don’t worry, [Green] doesn’t respond to me, either.”
Yaxel said Steph Curry welcomed him and Lajae to the Warriors groupchat:
“Steph actually welcomed both of us in the groupchat the night of the drafts, when he (Lajae) got drafted, I got drafted. And I reached out to him yesterday I asked one quick question and then I reached out… pic.twitter.com/PiwaYs53oZ
However, Green then pulled out some receipts, posting a screenshot of texts between him and Lendeborg in an Instagram story. The four-time NBA champion also added some commentary of his own, saying “Rookie Hazing heating up for these lies Rook,” as well as a barb at Michigan.
Lendeborg then refuted Green’s attack in an IG story of his own; it seems to be all in good fun, though, based on the amount of laughing emojis from both sides.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 24: Mitchell Robinson #23 of the New York Knicks looks on during a break in the action during the first quarter of the game against the Orlando Magic at Madison Square Garden on October 24, 2022 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After spending a week, if not two, celebrating the 2026 NBA championship nearly non-stop, the New York Knicks are back in business.
New York and Jose Alvarado pacted a delay to his player option, and on Friday, Alvarado finally rejected it only to, reportedly, sign a three-year deal. Up next, things will get a bit more serious as the Knicks will need to deal with the free agencies of many players, most importantly, sixth-man and backup center Mitchell Robinson.
The uncertainty about Mitch’s future in New York has grown in recent days, with the big man expected to depart and sign elsewhere once he becomes a free agent on June 30, if only because James Dolan wants it like that.
Now, we’ve heard from Robinson himself. In an interview with WGNO (h/t New York Basketball, Robinson was asked about the possibility of returning to New York and building on the franchise’s first title in 53 years.
“We can see what happens. It would be great, try to do it, try to run it back again, try to go back-to-back… Defending champs, so we’ll, that’s very a possibility.” — Mitchell Robinson.
Robinson’s comments arrive as multiple reports continued to emerge throughout Saturday, all of them doubting whether a reunion is financially realistic, and pointing toward the center’s days in New York being numbered.
WGNO "Free agency…Do you hope to be back with the Knicks…maybe build a dynasty in New York?"
Mitchell Robinson "We can see what happens. It would be great, try to do it, to run it back again, try to go back to back…defending champs, so we'll…that's…very a possibility" pic.twitter.com/AMiPn26k8F
According to the New York Post’s Stefan Bondy, Robinson is “unlikely to return to the Knicks next season,” with the decision tied directly to Dolan’s stance against crossing the NBA’s second apron.
That self-imposed restriction will inevitably shape the Knicks’ offseason approach and New York’s roster for the upcoming season. The front office already traded out of the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft to avoid adding guaranteed salary, signaling an obvious intent to preserve flexibility under the apron, and ended up taking a couple of second-round fliers.
Even with those moves, and following the Alvarado news, retaining Robinson remains complicated. Per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, New York has only about $14 million to fill four roster spots before hitting the second apron, set at $222 million. For context, Robinson just completed a four-year, $60 million contract with an average annual salary of $15 million per year, already more than the Knicks can offer, let alone leaving room to fill the rest of the roster.
SNY’s Ian Begley was optimistic in writing that the Knicks may be able to keep one of Robinson or Landry Shamet, but “not both.” It’s actually going to be hard to even bring Shamet back at a reasonable price, given his market is expected to be good following his title run with the Knicks, and still have enough money to build a competitive bench.
At the same time, Robinson’s market appears strong. League-wide interest has already surfaced, with teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings linked as potential suitors.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst summarized the situation earlier this week, noting: “There is a real possibility that they won’t keep Mitch Robinson… I would say Mitch Robinson is 50/50… maybe 51/49 to come back.”
Front Office Sports later confirmed Bondy’s report and cited Robinson’s injury history and free-throw struggles as additional factors in New York’s reluctance to commit long-term money at a higher cost.
Fred Katz, meanwhile, wrote a story about the Knicks’ second-apron saga, revealing that New York’s front office, led by Leon Rose, wants to get into the second apron while Dolan is simply refusing to allow them to.
Despite all of the reports, rumors, and speculation, Robinson’s own stance suggests he has not closed the door to a return. The 28-year-old center, the longest-tenured Knick after being drafted in 2018, remains open to returning to the title-winning Knicks, as impossible as that looks from the outside.
Free agency is set to open on June 30 at 6 p.m. ET.
Rob Pelinka, the Lakers' general manager and president of basketball operations, glances to his left during a news conference. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
If only. If Rob Pelinka could use the Dodgers’ blueprint to renovate, Lakers fans wouldn’t even be sweating this summer.
But, you know. Baseballs and basketballs, apples and oranges.
The windup and sales pitch are the same, though: Deliver a sustainable, high-rising, championship build. On time and … about that budget. One team has none. The other’s is tight.
In baseball, they wear caps. In the NBA, they’re compelled to stay under them.
In baseball, they can swing freely (for now). In basketball, they’re hamstrung by aprons.
Ned Colletti had it easier, and he lasted only two relatively successful seasons in his role as Dodgers general manager after Mark Walter’s Guggenheim Baseball Management group bought the ballclub in 2012.
Pelinka has it tougher as the Lakers’ general manager and president of basketball operations. But like Colletti before him, with Walter having purchased the majority stake in the Lakers, Pelinka is going to have to crash the hourglass and build a winner with haste. Er, the winner.
If the Lakers lay anything but an 18th brick on their championship foundation in the next couple seasons, Pelinka’s story probably is going to go a lot like Colletti’s.
When free agency opens Tuesday, Pelinka is just going to have to show us how creative he can be, how clever and cunning.
He already hit a grand slam with the Luka Doncic trade in 2025. In one of the NBA’s all-time heists, Pelinka brought the then-25-year-old Slovenian superstar to L.A. from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for essentially an aging and injury-prone Anthony Davis and just one first-round draft pick.
Before that, Pelinka hit another home run with Austin Reaves; a four-bagger so deep that Doncic’s undrafted backcourt-mate has now procured the proverbial bag. (Four years, $185 million worth of baggage to the Lakers.)
With those pillars cemented, Pelinka’s job is delivering the A-list center Doncic reportedly desires.
Lakers GM Rob Pelinka pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic. Can Pelinka build a winner around Doncic? (Carlin Stiehl / Los Angeles Times)
Doesn’t matter that all the perceivable candidates — from the Utah Jazz’s Walker Kessler to the New York Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Myles Turner, the Detroit Pistons’ Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Jarrett Allen, the Mavericks’ Daniel Gafford, even old friend A.D. — sit on a spectrum of unlikely to unwise.
Still, the best plan: Make Doncic happy; make a run at Kessler.
He’s a 24-year-old, defensively adept big man who would be a great pickup, just hard to get. But whether it’s overpaying in restricted free agency or working out a sign-and-trade deal, pry him away from the Jazz.
After nailing down a center, Pelinka also needs to really hit on the margins. Because in the modern NBA, the marginal is major.
The current contenders have depth borne of seasons spent tanking and loading up in the draft on athletic, affordable young talent or, in the case of the recently crowned Knicks, having a leading man take $113 million less than he was eligible for, as Jalen Brunson effectively did, to be able to play with his best buds.
In L.A., the Lakers don’t really have the first option and shouldn’t ever expect the second.
But Pelinka doesn’t have to swing for the fences every time; he doesn’t need to wow us now, he needs to have wowed us later. Take swings like he did trading for Rui Hachimura or netting sharpshooter Luke Kennard.
Former Laker Pau Gasol, right, speaks with GM Rob Pelinka during a Lakers practice in 2025. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
No one bats 1.000, of course, not even Andrew Friedman, the architect of the Dodgers’ three World Series titles since taking over as president of baseball operations in 2014.
But for the Lakers’ potential $51 million of cap space, for all of this summer’s much-hyped optionality, Pelinka’s competitive new boss isn’t the type to forgive errors that are forever front of mind for the Lakers’ faithful.
Pelinka can’t strike out on free agent signees like Gabe Vincent and Kendrick Nunn. Can’t let someone like Alex Caruso walk. Can’t whiff on draftees like Dalton Knecht or Jalen Hood-Schifino — and better hope he hasn’t on this year’s selection, Cameron Carr, who fell to the Lakers at No. 24.
The wrinkle, this offseason: Last year’s Lakers — 41-year-old LeBron James, Hachimura, Kennard and, if he opts out, Marcus Smart — will be among the most attractive free agents on the market, and they’re proven fits for a team that reached the second round of the playoffs.
But merely re-signing those guys won’t improve the Lakers’ odds of getting past the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs.
And simply outspending those teams isn’t an option, either. So Pelinka is going to have to go bargain hunting, he’s got to find some hidden gems, pull some tricks out of his sleeve. Surprise us, like great general managers are supposed to do.
This is Pelinka’s opportunity to show us his blueprint for bringing another title to Los Angeles, to build a case for himself.
NHL insider Frank Seravalli released his latest trade board for Hockey 24/7, and three Pittsburgh Penguins were among the players featured on it. Tommy Novak, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust all made the cut.
Novak was given the No. 23 spot on Seravalli's trade board. The 29-year-old forward is entering the final season of his contract in 2026-27 and will be a pending UFA. With this, he could be a decent trade chip for the Penguins to dangle if they do not view him as a long-term part of their plans. He is a solid top-nine forward, as evidenced by his 16 goals and 42 points in 82 games last season.
Rakell was given the No. 24 spot, and it makes sense when noting that he has created plenty of chatter in the rumor mill for a long time now. With this year's UFA class not being strong, the Penguins could get a significant return for a top-six forward like Rakell. In 60 games last season for Pittsburgh, he had 24 goals and 48 points.
As for Rust, he landed the No. 37 spot on Seravalli's trade board. Like Rakell, he has been a popular name in the rumor mill for a while now. The Penguins trading Rust would be significant, as he has spent his entire 12-year career in Pittsburgh. However, it could be worth dealing him if they get a significant offer. In 72 games last season, he had 29 goals and 65 points.
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MAY 27: Assistant Coach Amile Jefferson and Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics embrace after the game against the Indiana Pacers during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2024 NBA Playoffs on May 27, 2024 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Things have seemed somewhat quiet lately for former Duke star and assistant coach Amile Jefferson since moving from Durham to Boston to be an assistant with the Celtics, but that’s from the outside.
He’s an assistant. By definition, he’s a background figure for the team, at least as far as the public is concerned. That will change soon, however.
Among other things, this will be their first time seeing draftee Chris Cenac on the court, and Jefferson might be the ideal guy to mentor him.
When he was a freshman at Duke, injuries forced him into action too soon, and he took his lumps.
After that, he bulked up, and emerged as a force for the Blue Devils, and was a key to Duke’s 2015 national championship. That should resonate with Cenac, who arrives after just one year at Houston.
It’s not clear who else will be on the roster yet, but if Cenac is smart, he’ll listen to Jefferson, because that guy can really help.
In his first media availability following the conclusion of the 2026 NHL Draft, Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka addressed a wide range of topics, but questions about the club’s goaltending future carried particular weight. With a veteran Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, getting a tender of quality like the two-time Stanley Cup champion could certainly look like an upgrade, for the right price.
“For Brandon, I think it was a fresh start. And so I think that’s important to him. I think it’s a good fit with St. Louis,” he said. “And I think it’s a good fit for us to get some fresh blood in the back end.”
The move also aligned with Chayka’s desire to alter how the team defends and transitions the puck. It’s a position he’s been consistent about since taking on the role in May.
“He was a part of the transaction, and the harvesting of their asset off of that transaction made a lot of sense for us,” he explained.
Talks with Ersson’s camp about a potential fit and contract ultimately led the Leafs to prioritize the return over retention.That backdrop made Chayka’s comments on the current goaltending situation and future plans especially relevant. The Leafs enter the summer with Anthony Stolarz as their primary netminder and a developing pipeline that includes recent draft selections Artur Akhtyamov and Dennis Hildeby. But is that enough to go with next season?
“We’ve got this really interesting goalie pipeline,” he said. “And part of our evaluation is the young guys and what they’ve shown. So I think we’re trying to balance that. Anthony’s (Stolarz) been, by our models, a top goalie the last two years. Obviously health and durability has been the question, but we can’t guarantee that it’s going to be different. On another goalie that we bring in, that’s always a bit of a question mark. So we’re trying to find some balance in all of that, but it’s a key position, and if there’s a chance to make it better, like any position, we’ll do that. But that’s where we’re at today.”
Toronto selected two goalies as part of a broader 10-pick haul at the Draft.
Financially, the Leafs are well-positioned to act if the right opportunity presents itself. Following the Carlo trade and other adjustments, Toronto projects to have approximately $22 million in cap space for the 2026-27 season against the NHL’s $104 million ceiling, per PuckPedia.com.
“I think we’re going to try to make the team better. I think that’s an avenue for us. And up to today we created more flexibility even with the move,” he said.
Would the Leafs be willing to pull off a Darren Raddysh-style move before free agency? Chayka poured cold water on the idea. But you have to wonder if they are done in goal or if another move at the position is coming.
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If the first-round of the 2026 NHL Draft dragged on, things proceeded much faster on Saturday, as is customary; still, the seven rounds took over five hours to wrap up. As always, there was a lot of pick swapping, and the feel-good story of the day was the Pittsburgh Penguins picking Markus Ruck at 39th overall, allowing him to join his twin brother, Liam, who they had picked up on Friday. Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings drafted Derek Roy’s son, Victor, two years after picking his brother Max.
Just like on Friday, the Montreal Canadiens made a trade to move up in the second round. They sent pick 61 and pick 125 to the Carolina Hurricanes and then selected Timofei Runtso. The 6-foot-2 and 186-pound right-shot defenseman was ranked 48th among North American skaters. Playing in the WHL with the Victoria Royals, he put 44 points in 68 games. The soon-to-be 19-year-old was ignored at last year's draft but became a fast riser on the Central Scouting list thanks to a breakthrough season with the Royals after joining from the St. Cloud Norsemen of the North American Hockey League, a tier two junior league.
At number 93, they picked Cooper Cleaves, yet another big right-shot defenseman out of Dartmouth College. The 6-foot-3 blueliner weighs in at 203 pounds and put up 10 points in 30 games. He projects as a depth defenseman and describes himself as a two-way defenseman. Last summer, he attended the Canadiens development camp. He also played with Emmett Croteau, a Canadiens’ goaltending prospect this season. Interestingly, he played with Martin St-Louis’ kids growing up and told the media he was very tight with them. He’ll be going back to college for his sophomore season.
With pick number 117, the Canadiens went for yet another defenseman, a left shot one who’s 6-foot and 174 pounds and in his first year of eligibility: Brayden Klimpke. He put up 46 points in 68 games with the Saskatoon Blades. Described as big and tough, he’s a two-way defenseman and was an alternate captain last season. He has some leadership qualities, and he’s described as a character guy with a high compete level.
Montreal then went for a couple of forwards at picks 189 and 190. The former was used to select Parker Trottier, the grandson of former NHL legend Bryan Trottier. While the youngster has great bloodlines, his game is not the same as his grandad’s. At 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds, the USNTDP product is a power forward who loves to finish his checks, works hard on the forecheck and is good at puck retrieval. All the little things Canadiens’ coach Martin St-Louis classifies as “not fun to do” but that must be done to win hockey games.
At 190, the Habs picked up Wesley Royston, also a winger but with an even bigger body at 6-foot-4 and 186 pounds. He only picked up 19 points in 59 games played, mostly with the Owen Sound Attack in the OHL. He has rare speed for a player of his size, and he loves laying big hits all over the ice.
The Canadiens had three picks in the seventh and last round: 221, 223, and 224, but they traded pick 223 to the Los Angeles Kings in return for the California side’s seventh-round pick in 2027. With pick number 221, Montreal selected Jean-Samuel Daigneault, a 6-foot-3 and 190-pound left-shot blueliner who specializes in hitting opponents hard and often. Finally, with pick 224, they opted for forward Tyler Deakos, a 6-foot-1, 174-pound right winger.
This year's draft for the Canadiens can be summed up in two words: size and aggression. As Kent Hughes said on Friday night, the team is no longer just looking to add talented pieces; they are also looking for pieces to address particular needs. Should the Habs fail to address their size issue via trade, this draft class should definitely help down the line.
All things square, the Philadelphia Flyers failed to leave the NHL Draft with more than one or two good-value selections. and it makes you wonder about where things are headed for the organization in the near future.
The crown jewel of their draft class, the Flyers drafted Maksim Sokolovskii with the 27th overall pick after trading down with the San Jose Sharks to recoup some mid-round draft capital.
In a vacuum, I actually liked this pick.
Reviewing the Flyers' 2026 Draft Class
Sokolovskii, a 6-foot-7 monster on defense who actively seeks to punish his opponents, has a ton of potential. He's quite young for this draft class, is already filled out at 240 pounds, and defends well and hits hard.
The best way to look at this pick is that the Flyers basically have five or six years to teach him how to play offense and do stuff with the puck.
Sokolovskii is a wildly good skater for his size and has enough talent to put moves on defenders, but his passing ability isn't very expansive, needs to learn how to shoot (when and where, not how hard), and needs to practice making decisions under pressure.
The physicality and stick work are already good, but the Flyers are going to need to teach Sokolovskii how to do anything with the puck on his stick and in the opposing zone. Flyers general manager Danny Briere believes that the massive Kazakh rearguard made significant strides throughout the year, and how far Sokolovskii can go will determine if he's a first-pair guy or a third-pair guy at the NHL level.
Another question I have with the Sokolovskii selection: who is he going to play with? As a natural insulator, you have to imagine he would be best suited playing alongside an offensive player. Is that Jamie Drysdale? That's looking increasingly unlikely.
The Flyers left this draft without a true power play specialist or offensive defenseman, and that's a sticking point for me, even if it doesn't have anything to do with Sokolovskii directly.
He already struggles with the puck, and the last thing the Flyers should want to do is stick him with another defenseman who either can't skate or pass the puck, or both.
Grade: B
I was less a fan of the Brek Liske pick at 53rd overall in the second round.
Liske is a 6-foot-2 right-shot defenseman, but the Flyers already have a ton of those. Think names like Oliver Bonk, David Jiricek, Spencer Gill, Carter Amico, Luke Vlooswyk, Austin Moline, and even Helge Grans. Why use a third second-round pick in as many drafts on another right-shot?
Liske is a well-rounded defender who doesn't do anything particularly special, and his draft stock was undoubtedly boosted by a WHL playoff run that saw him score 17 points in 18 games, despite having only 24 in 52 regular season games.
Left-shot defensemen Alexander Bilecki and Ben MacBeath, who are both highly regarded for their skating ability and are both 6-foot-2, would have been much better choices if defense was the play.
Grade: C
Goalie Martin Psohlavec was a fine bet at 62nd overall, but this goalie class was not the greatest, and a second-round pick felt a bit rich, even with his outstanding size (6-foot-5) and production. He went one spot ahead of MacBeath, who was picked by the rival New York Rangers.
With their next selection, the Flyers went with another Czech goalie in Marek Sklenicka, who is 6-foot-4 and quite athletic for his size. Sklenicka, all things considered, was a better value pick than Psohlavec was.
Grade: B
Flyers' Strange Asset Management
The Flyers hadn't drafted a goalie since 2023 before this draft, but it is a bit strange that they both drafted two of them and did so back-to-back.
It is unfortunate that high-upside talents like Mikey Berchild and Lavr Gashilov went to two rivals in the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, respectively, in the same round the Flyers drafted Sklenicka.
Sure, the Flyers didn't have many draft picks, but it would have been nice to see them get aggressive and move up to get someone they really want.
Berchild (105th) and Gashilov (119th) weren't out of reach with the Flyers sitting at 120th, but they opted for the goalie in Sklenicka instead of a forward.
Speaking of forwards, the only forward the Flyers drafted in 2026 was K.J. Sauer, who played high school hockey for Andover High in Minnesota before getting into 13 games with the USHL Lincoln Stars.
He's big and physical, but we'll have to wait until he plays for the WHL's Edmonton Oil Kings next year to get a better read.
Alex Bump was drafted out of high school, after all, but this is a file-it-away pick until this time next year. Beckham Edwards and Giorgos Pantellas were still on the board here, and better options at that.
Grade: D
With their last pick in the 2026 draft, the Flyers took Max Laatikainen, a smaller Finnish defender at 5-foot-11 who played in some Liiga games last season, 213th overall. He picked up two assists in six games for Kiekko-Espoo.
Laatikainen was one of five draft-eligible players to record multiple points in Liiga this season.
Alberts Smits, Oliver Suvanto, and Juho Piiparinen were all first-round picks (and regulars), and Anttoni Uronen went to Columbus in Round 6.
Laatikainen played in 23 fewer games than Piiparinen and had only one less assist, so there's potential there.
Grade: A
Similarly to Max Westergard last year, I liked that the Flyers threw a dart at a kid who already played some pro hockey and was productive doing it, especially compared to much more esteemed peers.
The Flyers' Path Ahead
Overall, though, it was a pretty uninspiring draft for the Flyers, who made some boring picks going after the same traits as always: size and experience.
The Flyers did not draft any speed or skill this year whatsoever, and that isn't hyperbole.
It is a recurring theme, at this point, in the fourth draft I covered since I started writing about the Flyers in 2023.
It hasn't all been bad, to be fair, but the lows have been too low, and the highs haven't been high enough.
That 2023 draft saw the Flyers take Carter Sotheran and Matteo Mann, and neither player signed a contract with the team. Alex Ciernik, injury issues notwithstanding, was probably lucky to get a contract from the Flyers, too.
The 2022 draft was Cutter Gauthier and... that was what it was. In 2021, the Flyers traded their first-round pick for Rasmus Ristolainen, and used their second-round pick to take Samu Tuomaala, who isn't with the team anymore and has yet to play an NHL game, over Logan Stankoven and Matthew Knies.
In 2024, it was Jett Luchanko over Konsta Helenius, and in 2025, it was Jack Nesbitt over Jackson Smith and Cam Reid.
Overall, the Flyers have just made a habit of making uninspiring picks and hunting for concepts of players, rather than the players themselves.
The outlook in Philadelphia hasn't changed much after this draft, and that isn't a good thing. This draft class will likely hinge entirely on the continued development of Sokolovskii.
PORTLAND, OREGON - MARCH 19: AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars dribbles the ball while being guarded by Nic Codie #10 of the Texas Longhorns during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the first pick in the 2026 draft, the Washington Wizards got the guy they think will spearhead the team’s offense and lead them into contention over the next decade-plus. Now comes the hard, fascinating, long-term work of turning AJ Dybantsa’s many strengths into an elite NBA player.
Because Dybantsa will be just 19-years-old for the first half of his rookie season, and NBA history tells us that teenagers entering the league are unlikely to be great immediately. The league is arguably the most challenging in pro sports — the difference between the NBA and the next level down is bigger than any other league.
Playing big minutes with reasonable production would set AJ Dybantsa up for a long and productive career with the Washington Wizards. | NBAE via Getty Images
Even being the top pick doesn’t eliminate the growing pains of young players entering the NBA. The exceptions underscore the rule.
Through NBA history, just three players age 20 or under produced at least 10 Win Shares in their rookie season, according to Basketball-Reference (NOTE: per Basketball-Reference methodology, this will be Dybantsa’s age 20 season, so I’m using 20 and under as the cutoff):
Magic Johnson, Los Angeles Lakers | 10.5 — 1979-80
Shaquille O’Neal, Orlando Magic | 10.4 — 1992-93
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets | 10.4 — 2005-06
Only five players total had at least eight Win Shares. Just 20 had five or more. Number 20 on that list? LeBron James, who lands just above a few other prominent names who just fell short of the 5.0 cutoff, including Luka Doncic, Derrick Rose, James Harden, and Kevin Garnett.
Wunderkind Victor Wembanyama had 3.7 as a rookie. Wizards guards Bradley Beal (3.0) and John Wall (2.2) were tops for 20-and-under rookies in Washington.
Under the leadership of Michael Winger and Will Dawkins, the Wizards have invested heavily in player development, from expanding their developmental infrastructure to hiring coaches with a record of helping young stars. Their goal should not be to maximize Dybantsa’s rookie statistics but to make sure he’s great from 24 to 33.
While there are no firm rules when it comes to 20-and-under rookies, there are some indicators worth tracking. Rather than points per game or other standard metrics, I’ll be keying on three things:
Offensive involvement.
Availability and minutes.
Overall production.
The Wizards will do everything in their power to set Dybantsa up for a successful career. The question today is what might be some signals that he actually is succeeding, even if his on-court performance is uneven.
Let’s start with this: Lots of playing time. As the cliche goes, the number one ability is availability. While missing games has become more common and minutes totals have declined as teams try to maximize career length, the most productive under-20 rookies played a lot both in terms of games played and minutes. They also had more productive careers.
This isn’t about gifting minutes to a youngster. Being talented enough to win a starting job (even if it’s not to begin the season), good enough to convince the coach to keep him on the floor, and conditioned enough to play significant minutes and not miss games are positives for a youngster and bode well for how his career may unfold.
Whether I look at under-20 rookies using a simple volume metric like total minutes or games played or a rate production stat like PPA, the trend is clear: production begets minutes begets production. The big the Wizards don’t want to see from Dybantsa is missing games due to injuries.
Benchmarks I’d like to see: 70+ games played, 60+ starts, 2,200+ total minutes. If he’s getting 32 minutes a night as a teenager, it’s because coaches think he helps them win possessions and ultimately games.
The next big indicator: Production. Once again, whether I look at totals or rates, the guys who became truly elite tended to be productive as young rookies. Here’s the top 10 in PPA for 20-and-under rookies:
Nikola Jokic
Chris Paul
Zion Williamson
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Chris Webber
Shaquille O’Neal
Magic Johnson
Victor Wembanyama
Kawhi Leonard
The only guy on that list I’d classify as unlikely to make the Hall of Fame is Williamson. He played just 24 games and 668 minutes as a rookie and has gone on to miss similar chunks of subsequent seasons. He’s one of the reasons playing a lot is the first indicator.
Sort the list by total production (total PPA) and the result is similar:
Shaquille O’Neal (played 81 games as a rookie)
Chris Paul
Magic Johnson
Karl-Anthony Towns
Elton Brand
Chris Webber
Dwight Howard
Joe Smith
LeBron James
Victor Wembanyama
No specific standard box score category (such as points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, etc.) stands out as being particularly predictive of future success. Overall production — however the rookie does it — does matter, though.
A benchmark I’ll be watching: PPA of 70 or higher (in PPA, 100 is average and higher is better). There are exceptions — youngsters who rated below a 70 and went on to be excellent like Kobe Bryant, Shawn Kemp, DeMarcus Cousins (sorta), Alperen Sengun, Jamal Murray, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Dirk Nowitzki, Devin Booker, DeAaron Fox, and Zach LaVine. But the “hits” are much less frequent the further down the PPA list you go.
One “advanced” category to watch: usage. While efficiency is what drives winning in the NBA, for a 20-and-under rookie, trying to do stuff seems to matter more than actually doing stuff. Think Doncic with a 32.8% usage rate and an effective field goal percentage of 49.7% or LeBron at 28.4% usage and 43.8% eFG%.
There are exceptions, of course, though they’re usually smaller guards who burned possessions on horrific efficiency like Dennis Smith (28.6% usage and an offensive rating more than 15 points per 100 possessions below average) or Scoot Henderson (27.9% usage and a -21 relative offensive rating).
For a benchmark, I’ll be watching 20% — the league average rate. Given Dybantsa’s skills and athletic tools, and the Wizards roster, I’d expect him at or around that level as a rookie. Below that wouldn’t be much of a concern, unless his usage goes ultra-low (sub-14%).
I say this because low-usage 20-and-under rookies have gone on to become All-Stars and better. Here are a few:
Giannis 15.5%
Gordon Hayward 15.2%
Aaron Gordon 15.1%
Domantas Sabonis 15.1%
Joe Johnson 14.5%
Nicolas Batum 14.0%
Kawhi Leonard 14.0%
Some useful players used even fewer possessions as rookies (OG Anunoby had a 12.1% usage rate!), but the cutoff point seems to be around 14%. Side note: that holds out some hope for Coulibaly and his 14.2% rookie usage rate. Only some, though.
High usage means the coaching staff and teammates trust a rookie to create offense. Teenagers capable of carrying that burden — even inefficiently — often develop into stars because they possess skills that can’t easily be taught. Just as important, high usage is a signal that the player is trying to make things happen and that he’s confident in his own abilities. Even if he’s laying bricks or committing turnovers.
These are benchmarks I’ll be watching this season, though I want to emphasize that there are no hard and fast rules. For example, as a 20-year-old rookie, Greg Monroe posted a 150 PPA with a 120 offensive rating on 16.1% usage but never learned to translate individual production into winning basketball. On the other hand, Devin Booker had a replacement level 45 PPA and a 100 offensive rating on 22.1% usage but developed into an All-NBA level player who helped lead a team to the NBA Finals.
While ideally, Dybantsa will be an All-Star level producer (whether he’s selected to the team or not) right away, simply being a competent NBA player at 19-20 years old is a pretty good indicator of future success. The Wizards don’t need him to be a world-killer from day one. For a 20-and-under rookie, staying on the court as a decent player is more than enough.
The Wizards didn’t draft Dybantsa to win Rookie of the Year (he’s currently third in the FanDuel ROY betting odds), though he has a good of chance of winning the award. They want him to be All-NBA level for years to come. History suggests those futures rarely begin with spectacular rookie seasons. They begin with teenagers who stay healthy, earn big minutes, shoulder responsibility and prove they already belong on an NBA court.
