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Let’s welcome the weekend in with a trio of NRFI/YRFI bets to cover you throughout the 15-game slate of baseball on Friday, May 8.

My top MLB picks begin with an NL East clash between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins before wrapping up with another National League showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres in the late window.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI/YRFI	-135
/ - NRFI/YRFI	-115
/ - NRFI/YRFI	-115

Twins at Guardians: NRFI (-135)

Minnesota Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp has limited opposing batters to a .455 OPS while allowing just a pair of hits and a single run across seven opening innings.

Additionally, the Cleveland Guardians have overachieved at the dish of late, sporting a .336 wOBA (.310 xwOBA) across the past seven games.

I’m also expecting the Twins to struggle against emerging Cleveland star Parker Messick. He’s spun a tidy 2.40 ERA and 2.86 xERA while also pitching seven consecutive scoreless opening innings and allowing just two hits and a minuscule .247 OPS.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

Nationals at Marlins: NRFI (-115)

Miami Marlins lefty Robby Snelling is set to make his MLB debut after posting a 1.86 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and 40.0 K% across six Triple-A starts.

I’m fully anticipating Snelling to keep the Washington Nationals off balance in their first look at him, and the Nats also have the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws. 

Meanwhile, the Marlins are in tough against Washington LHP Foster Griffin. He’s held opposing hitters to a .442 OPS without allowing a single earned run through seven opening innings, and I also value him keeping batters to a 36.0% hard-hit rate. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Marlins.TV

Cardinals at Padres: NRFI (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy has pitched a scoreless first frame in six of seven starts and boasts a positive pitch value on each of his three most frequent offerings. This spells trouble for a San Diego Padres offense that has failed to score a run in the first inning in 83.8% of their games.

Similarly, the Cards rank middle of the pack in games without a first-inning run (70.3%) and now face Friars righty Griffin Canning following a solid season debut.

Canning scattered six baserunners across five innings while allowing just one run and striking out seven in his last outing, which also included a scoreless opening frame.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

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The Pirates have had a handful of big name free agent signings in the offseason. The Bucs signed players like Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’hearn, Marcell Ozuna and Gregory Soto to name a few. Who has been the most impactful free agent signing so far for the Bucs ? 

To me, the obvious pick for most impactful free agent has been Brandon Lowe. Lowe was not a free agent signing, as he was a part of a three-team trade, but was still a move made in the offseason so we are counting it here. Lowe was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, and he leads the team in home runs with 10 and is third on the team in RBIs with 23. Oneil Cruz is first on the team with 28 RBIs, while Ryan O’hearn is second with 25. 

It has been a long time since Pittsburgh has had a second baseman who can hit for serious power, and Lowe is doing just that.

The veteran second basemen went on an absolute tear in their last series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Lowe had five hits in two games played in Arizona. He also hit two home runs in the series, with both of them coming in the first inning. Those home runs were a huge reason why the Pirates won two out of three against Arizona, securing a 1-0 and 4-2 wins.

Pittsburgh is now 21-17 on the season, and that early success is because of the Pittsburgh offense. The Pirates had one of the worst offenses last year, but the addition of Lowe specifically has turned them into more of a power team this year.

That is surprising too, because everyone thought that O’hearn and Ozuna would be the additions that would bring the power, but really it has been the opposite. Lowe’s power has been so nice, especially in the top of that lineup. Having Lowe bat second in the lineup behind Cruz and in front of Bryan Reynolds is the best lineup decision in my opinion.

We have talked a lot about his offense, but his defense has been really solid too so far. His veteran presence has also been important especially with Pittsburgh still having a younger lineup and team. The Pirates will need Brandon Lowe to continue to play well if Pittsburgh wants to contend in what is the most competitive decision in baseball.  

Comment below who you think has been the most impactful acquisition from the offseason so far for the Pirates.  

Baseball is full of statistical oddities, but the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008 and 2009 had one of the strangest name coincidences in franchise history. Enter Brian Barden and Brian Barton.

Both were born in California. Both were born in April. Both were trying to find their footing in the big leagues at the exact same time—often on the same roster.

In this week’s episode of Random Cardinal of the Week, Jim Plaza dives into the overlapping careers of these two players who flashed brilliance before fading into baseball trivia.

In this episode, we discuss:

The 2008 Rule 5 Draft pick that cost the Cardinals a fan favorite (So Taguchi).

Brian Barden’s blistering April 2009 that saw him named NL Rookie of the Month.

The “switch” that happened between the two Brians during Spring Training.

The surprising link between Brian Barden and World Series hero David Freese.

Whether you remember them as the future of the Cardinals’ infield or just as a confusing duo in the box score, we’re breaking down the full “Two Brians” saga. Unfortunately, the quick stay in the majors made it more difficult to find relevant pictures and highlights, so the YouTube video is a little bare on the visual this week. Either way, we hope you have been enjoying this weekly segment and are always welcome to feedback!

Drop your favorite Brian memories below!

This past offseason, many Yankees fans grew anxious as Cody Bellinger remained unsigned and the club’s only outside addition appeared to be Ryan Weathers. These were the days before the “run it back Yankees” became the reality surrounding the roster construction for 2026. Even after signing Bellinger and making a few additional moves, many felt the team did not do enough to go all in for a chance to finally capitalize on Aaron Judge’s championship window.

Most of the frustration centered around the team not addressing third base, finding a right-handed backup catcher, or fortifying the bullpen. That bullpen, mind you, had just lost the previous off-season’s prized closer acquisition from the Brewers in Devin Williams, as well as Luke Weaver, the former Cardinals castoff turned bullpen staple of the past few seasons, as they both headed across town to Queens.

How could a team with championship aspirations seemingly not address losing two high-leverage relievers from the previous year? Before the season, Brian Cashman pointed toward last summer’s trade deadline acquisitions of David Bednar and Camilo Doval as part of the organization’s reasoning for staying relatively quiet. Sure, those high-profile trade acquisitions bring traditional high-octane stuff to the late innings, but there’s another player who has been even more instrumental in stabilizing the Yankee ‘pen, and his name is Tim Hill.

Hill’s performance during the 2026 season has been nothing short of spectacular and has helped buoy the bullpen while the unit struggled through parts of early April. Now just over a month into the season, the Yankees entered Thursday with the sixth-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.35 across 129 innings pitched.

Of those 129 innings, Hill has pitched 14.1 of them in 16 games, entering Thursday. So far on the season the thirty-six-year-old journeyman has posted a 1.26 ERA and had allowed zero of his nine inherited runners to score (he finally let an inherited runner cross home plate against the Rangers on Thursday afternoon). This is the type of performance that is expected from big ticket relievers, not a cheap, soft tossing lefty. So how has Hill been so successful?

Since he was released in 2024 by the White Sox and claimed by the Yankees, Hill has seen the organization’s pitching lab significantly alter his pitch usage. Prior to joining the Yankees, Hill threw his four-seam fastball roughly 30 percent of the time while in Kansas City and closer to 50 percent on average in San Diego. That number dropped to 13.7 percent last season and fell even further to just 8.1 percent in 2026.

Instead, the Yankees have leaned heavily into Hill’s sinker. This season, the pitch accounts for more than 80 percent of his offerings. Before arriving in New York, the highest sinker usage rate of Hill’s career came in 2022 with the Padres when he threw it 54.5 percent of the time.

Besides throwing his sinker more, Hill has upped the usage of his slider. After trending downward for several seasons, the pitch now accounts for 11.9 percent of his arsenal. The slider is also coming in roughly eight miles per hour slower than it did last season, giving it more sweeping action and further disrupting hitters’ timing.

Hill also does an excellent job keeping his release point on all three of these pitches very consistent, making them even more deceptive to the hitter. The results have been dramatic. Hill currently has the highest groundball rate of his career at 79.1 percent.

Opponents have been hitting the ball hard off Hill with an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph. For reference, the league average is 87.7 mph. But much of that contact comes in the form of sharply hit groundballs rather than dangerous lift. That can be seen in Hill’s tiny 2.3 percent barrel rate and -9.2 launch angle.

The Yankees have increasingly emphasized the sinker and deception, and several pitchers on the staff have reaped the rewards. Hill’s profile fits that mold perfectly. While he is not the modern-day flamethrower, he offers a change of pace from a unique arm slot and has become a trusted option out of the pen for Aaron Boone.

In addition to posting incredible numbers, Hill was also the recipient of the 2025 Tony Conigliaro Award from the Boston Red Sox. The award recognizes a big leaguer who “has overcome adversity through the attributes of spirit, determination, and courage.”

Adversity has followed Hill throughout much of his life. He lost his father to colon cancer during his sophomore year of high school in 2007. Then, after being selected in the 2014 MLB Draft, Hill was diagnosed with Lynch syndrome and Stage 3 colon cancer during spring training in 2015 at just 25 years old. He underwent surgery, radiation, and eight months of chemotherapy while facing a projected five-year survival rate between 65 and 75 percent.

I am sure Tim Hill’s baseball career has not gone exactly as he once scripted it in his dreams. It certainly has not followed a conventional path, but it has produced another story that simply makes you want to cheer for the guy.

As the summer unfolds, I expect the Yankees to do their due diligence on every available high-leverage relief pitcher ahead of the trade deadline. As we all know, you can never have too much pitching, and Cashman has never been afraid to make a move if he believes the value is right. However, the efforts and success of players like Hill allow the organization to approach those decisions deliberately rather than out of necessity or panic as it continues chasing championship number 28.

The Cubs’ starting rotation has actually done pretty well in 2026, considering they lost Cade Horton for the season after two starts, and now are missing Matthew Boyd with an injury for the second time this year (and Boyd has a 6.00 ERA in five starts in 2026).

The team’s 3.77 starting pitcher ERA ranks seventh among all teams, which is really pretty good considering the injuries. Colin Rea and Javier Assad have done a good job as fill-ins, and Ben Brown will get a chance at a start tonight.

Clearly, Jed Hoyer will be looking for starting pitching help going forward, particularly as we approach the trade deadline. But that’s two months away and most teams aren’t going to trade a quality starter in early May.

One starter who might become available somewhat soon is Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta.

The Mets are off to a terrible start, currently tied with the Giants for MLB’s worst record at 14-23. They’ve had injury issues and some of the changes they made in the offseason simply haven’t worked. They stand 11.5 games behind the first-place Braves just 37 games into the season.

Would the Mets trade Peralta now? Possibly not; there have been teams that started this poorly who have made the postseason, though it seems unlikely. The Mets lost 12 in a row last month, including being swept by the Cubs, and no team that has had that long a losing streak has ever made the postseason. So maybe they’d be open to a trade now, instead of waiting until the deadline.

Peralta is a pending free agent who turns 30 next month. He’s been consistently good throughout his career and has been so this year as well, entering Friday’s action with a 3.12 ERA and 1.200 WHIP, with just four home runs allowed in 43.1 innings. He’s made at least 30 starts each of the last three years and seems durable. And, Cubs manager Craig Counsell managed Peralta for six years in Milwaukee, so he’s quite familiar with the right-hander.

Also, Peralta is making $8 million this year, so he could likely easily fit into Hoyer’s budget.

Now, what would the Cubs have to give the Mets to get Peralta?

This article suggests sending Kevin Alcántara and Jefferson Rojas to New York in exchange for the veteran right-hander. Those two currently rank third and fourth in MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Cubs prospects. This past offseason, Josh ranked them fifth and third.

So that’s a fairly high price for a rental pitcher, though it’s not impossible that the Cubs could keep Peralta past this year.

Would you make that trade?

Thanks to an offensive outburst by Keibert Ruiz, which included 2 doubles and a solo shot, the Nationals beat the Twins 7-5 to secure the series win and an even 3-3 homestand. The win brought their record on the year to 18-20, good for sole possession of second place in the NL East and 2 wins shy of the .500 mark. They’ll have an opportunity to climb over the .500 mark with a three-game set in Miami against the Marlins, who are in the midst of a 4 game losing streak.

The Marlins have been led offensively by a pair of middle infielders in Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards in 2026, who have a 143 and 145 wRC+, respectively. Like the Nats, the Marlins lineup is extremely young, with none of their usual starting 9 hitters being over the age of 28. On the pitching side, they are led by a mix of former top prospects, journeymen, and a former Cy Young winner, and the result has been a respectable 4.09 ERA on the year as a club.

Friday – 7:10 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (3-1, 2.27 ERA)

MIA: LHP Robby Snelling (Major League Debut)

Despite throwing 6 innings and allowing 0 earned runs last time out, Griffin earned the loss due to some unearned runs in the first inning and the Nats’ offense failing to get going. He’s been a monster for the Nats every 5 days, and will look to keep it going against a young Marlins lineup.

Robby Snelling, one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, will make his major league debut tonight against the Nats, a left-handed heavy lineup. Acquired from the Padres for reliever Tanner Scott in 2024, Snelling had a 1.86 ERA in Triple-A this season and will now get his first crack at the big leagues.

Saturday – 4:10 PM EST

WSH: Zack Littell (1-4, 7.24 ERA)

MIA: RHP Janson Junk (2-3, 2.82 ERA)

Littell was effective in his last outing after PJ Poulin opened the game, throwing 3 2/3 innings of 1-run ball. The best the Nats can hope for out of Littell is to get through the order twice unscathed, before handing it off to Mitchell Parker to pitch the bulk of the innings.

A 22nd-rounder in 2017 by the Yankees, Junk has turned himself into an effective starter in Miami, with a 4.17 ERA in 21 outings in 2025 and a 2.82 ERA in 7 starts in 2026. He’s allowed just 1 run in his last 3 starts, so the Nats are catching him in the middle of a hot stretch.

Sunday – 12:15 PM EST

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.15 ERA)

MIA: RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 4.01 ERA)

After back-to-back 10-strikeout starts against the Braves and Mets, Cavalli took a step back in his outing against the Twins, allowing 3 runs over 4 innings and walking more batters than he struck out. When Cavalli has his command, he’s a tough guy to get runs off, so hopefully he has a feel for his stuff on Sunday in Miami.

Alcantara’s season has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s been brilliant in 6 of his 8 starts, going deep in the outings and limiting damage, but in 2 of them, he has allowed 7 runs, including last time out against the Orioles. Hopefully, the Nats get the bad version of Alcantara on Sunday and can drop a 7-spot of their own.

The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss of the season earlier this week. All three games were incredibly close affairs as you would expect in a series between two playoff contenders. Seattle now embarks on a seven-game road trip and the beginning of a stretch of 13 straight games without an off day. Despite possessing a record two games below .500, the M’s are still in fine position in the standings because it seems like no other team in the American League actually wants to win — there are just four teams with winning records currently and the Mariners are in possession of a Wild Card berth with their 18-20 record.

The White Sox have made some quick progress in their rebuild after losing more than 100 games in three straight seasons. It’s easy to improve after losing a record 121 games like they did in 2024, but the forward progress this year has been shocking. The team was the surprising landing spot for Munetaka Murakami this offseason and their crop of young prospects have already started to make big impacts in the majors. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Chicago is 11-7 over its last 18 games. Even though they’re in a pretty favorable spot in the standings — third in the AL Central and just half a game out of a Wild Card spot — I don’t think this team is suddenly a contender this year, but they’re definitely a lot closer to breaking out of their rebuilding cycle than expected.

I think there are a bunch of teams who really regret missing out on Murakami this offseason now that they’ve seen what he can do against MLB pitching. Yes, the contact issues are still present — he’s running 34.4% strikeout rate and a 58.9% contact rate — but his walk rate has been surprisingly robust and the power is obviously big enough to play. He’s currently second in the majors with 14 home runs. He’s not the only power hitter in the middle of this lineup either. Colson Montgomery made a splash last summer, blasting 21 home runs in just 71 games after being called up in July. He’s hit another nine to start this year and is playing solid defense at shortstop to boot. Miguel Vargas is the other youngster showing some real progress this season. Pushed off the fringe of the Dodgers roster a few years ago, he’s been able to establish himself with regular playing time in Chicago. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball hard enough to run an above average batting line at third base.

Jarred Kelenic deserves a mention as well. He was recalled from Triple-A last week after Everson Pereira was sidelined with an injury. Kelenic couldn’t establish himself in the two years he spent in Atlanta and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox this offseason. Still just 26 years old, his issues are still the same as ever: trouble making consistent contact.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn’t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He’s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn’t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results.

After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn’t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he’s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn’t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six.

Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He’s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches — his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year — so even if they’re making good contact against his fastballs, they’re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics managed to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia with a 12-1 blowout win yesterday. They head to Baltimore this weekend looking to maintain their grip on the AL West lead. The Rangers lost their series in New York against the Yankees and will return home to face the red-hot Cubs this weekend. The blows just keep coming for the Astros: Carlos Correa has been sidelined for the season with an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday. Houston wound up losing its series against the Dodgers and will head to Cincinnati this weekend.

What if before the season, I told you that a former Phillie would be leading the National League in OPS come the second week of May? You’d probably assume that Nick Castellanos was having some sort of revenge season out in San Diego, right?

Well, don’t worry. Nicky is batting .183 and playing his usual bad brand of defense out West. However, Mickey Moniak is absolutely crushing it in Colorado.

Most of you probably know the story: The Phillies had the top pick of the 2016 draft, and there were no obvious standout prospects to take. So, they took a chance on a high school outfielder, with hopes that he could develop major league power and defense. He didn’t amaze anyone in the minors, but slowly progressed through the system, and made his major league debut in 2020.

He struggled in the minors but looked poised to start the 2022 season as the Phillies’ centerfielder before suffering an injury on the last day of Spring Training. He couldn’t regain his hitting form after returning from the injury and the Phillies shipped him to the Angels in exchange for Noah Syndergaard.

He underwhelmed in Los Angeles and didn’t make the team out of Spring Training in 2025. The Rockies, who were barely even attempting to field a major league team decided to take a chance on him.

In 2025, despite being regarded as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, his bat showed some life in the thin Colorado air, and he hit 24 home runs. He’s shown even more life this season, with a .318/.367/.700 slash line.

Obviously, he’s unlikely to continue hitting at this pace, and he’s definitely benefitting from playing in Colorado, since his road OPS is almost .500 points lower than it is at Coors Field. But for now, it’s a nice story to see him finally experience success after being such a disappointment.

The funny thing is: If you told Phillies’ management back in 2016 that Moniak might be in Philadelphia for the 2026 All-Star Game, they’d probably be thrilled.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The 2012 Phillies’ first visit to Marlins Park ended with them getting swept. The three losing pitchers were Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton. Nobody was able to name two of the three.

This week’s question: On August 23, 1993, the Rockies earned their second ever win in Philadelphia, behind a home run by what former Phillie?

Non-Phillies thought

It didn’t take long for the optimism around the Sixers and Flyers to fade. The Flyers look completely outmatched by the Carolina Hurricane, and the Sixers have spent the first two games of their series against the Knicks looking like they used up all their energy against the Celtics. (To be fair, a 48-hour turnaround after an intense game seven is kind of tough.)

When the Sixers vs. Knicks series began, I had optimism that the Sixers’ home games wouldn’t be taken over by Knicks fans like they were in 2024. The fans were mostly checked out on that year’s team, while people seemed pumped about this year’s team after beating the Celtics. But falling into an 0-2 hole likely changed the math, and unfortunately, I expect there to be a very healthy contingent of Knicks fans in the building.

Additional thought about the series

A home series against the Rockies should allow the Phillies to continue their recent run of hot play. The key to the turnaround has been that the starting pitching – Andrew Painter aside – has met expectations lately.

The Rockies have a mediocre offense – 16th in runs scored overall, 21st in road games – so the Phillies’ starting trio of Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez should be able to turn in strong outings.

I’m less certain about the Phillies’ bullpen. Jhoan Duran looked shaky in his return from the IL, but the hope is that was just him getting readjusted. The bigger question is do they have a late inning lefthanded reliever they can depend on? With both Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks struggling mightily, who do they call upon if they have to face Moniak in the late innings? (There’s something I didn’t expect to be writing before the season.) Will Tim Mayza become their primary setup lefty? (Something else I didn’t expect to write.)

Someone needs to assert themselves, because I don’t want to spend the entire season holding my breath in the seventh and eighth innings.