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The UNC-ECU baseball series that’s been happening for several years now is one of the best nonconference traditions in college baseball — two historically notable programs that are geographically close enough that they can pull off a weekend series where each team hosts one with a third game being played at a venue as cool as Durham Bulls Athletic Park. The two teams come into the weekend having started the season in kind of opposite ways: the #10 Heels swept their opening weekend series and stayed unbeaten in two midweek contests, while the Pirates lost an opening-weekend series to Xavier and then split their midweek games — a loss to Campbell before a bit of a get-right win against NJIT on Wednesday. Still, this series nearly always delivers some really good, fun baseball, and often tells us UNC fans a lot more about what we’ve got to look forward to. Last year’s ECU series featured Jake Knapp’s first action back from injury — while his 3-inning start with 2 runs allowed didn’t really foreshadow his eventual National Pitcher of the Year campaign, there was at least something there.

Leading up to this weekend, the Heels continued their display of pitching dominance in their two midweek contests. Kyle Percival, back from an injury that ended his season early last year, started Tuesday’s game against Richmond and tossed 4 scoreless innings, allowing 3 hits and one walk while striking out 2. A couple of those outs were on pretty loud contact, but Percival mostly missed barrels pretty effectively and used his pitch mix well — it’s a good early sign for UNC to have another reliable lefty in the bullpen, which for all of last year’s pitching success was something that the staff sometimes missed having. He got good run support, too — a pair of RBI doubles from Gavin Gallaher and Macon Winslow in the first, then a pair of 3-run homers from Winslow and Jake Schaffner in the second made it a 8-0 ballgame early. A Gallaher sac fly in the 3rd took the score to 9-0 before the offense slowed down, but that was enough for Scott Forbes to throw a couple of freshmen for an inning each in a low-stakes situation. Both of them, Talan Holiday and Jackson rose, threw scoreless innings while relying heavily on off-speed stuff, differing a little from the rest of their righty teammates who are more power-oriented. Camron Seagraves finished the shutout with a clean inning of his own in his first action of the season, and the game ended after Rom Kellis hit a pinch-hit double and was advanced home by a fly ball and a wild pitch to trigger the 10-run rule.

Wednesday’s game against Longwood looked like it might go similarly after a four-run first inning that featured two-RBI singles from Colin Hynek and Michael Maginnis, but the Lancers’ pen really locked in after the first and shut down the UNC lineup from innings 2-6. They had some legit stuff, with some of their arms reaching well into the mid-90s, and while UNC made a lot of good contact, they couldn’t seem to find grass. Boston Flannery started this game after his positive appearance last Friday, but functioned more as an opener than a starter. He threw two innings and continued to look pretty good — he did walk 3 batters, but struck out 5 and allowed just one hit. One run did score on a throwing error from the catcher, but Flannery still looked a lot more comfortable and effective than he ever had before as a Tar Heel. Cam Padgett pitched scoreless frames in innings 3 and 4, helped by an awesome throw by Tyler Howe from right field to 3rd base to deny an advancing runner, but Longwood was able to scratch one across in the fifth and make it a 4-2 game. Walker McDuffie once again suffused a high-leverage situation with a strikeout and pitched a 1-2-3 sixth before giving ground to freshman Caden Glauber, who allowed one run to score early in his outing before striking out 4 of the next 6 batters he faced. The Heels were able to match that run in the 7th, maintaining a 2-run stiff-arm, before Matthew Matthijs earned the save with a lockdown 9th that sealed a somewhat surprisingly hard-fought 5-3 victory.

The preseason expectation that the Heels would have one of the best top-to-bottom pitching staffs in the country appears to be holding true. The Heels have thrown 13 arms across 43 innings with nobody having pitched more than 5, and boast a 1.47 ERA and a .179 opponent batting average. They’ve walked a few more batters than you’d like with a 50:26 K:BB ratio, but are pitching well enough for that not to have translated yet into real damage — and we still haven’t seen a couple of guys who have been talked about as contributors, namely Olin Johnson and Amos Rich. Offensively, things are still being worked out, with the at-bats looking good (after 5 games, their mark of more walks than strikeouts holds) but the team average at just .279. Their on-base percentage is a healthy .429, but the relative lack of hits has bitten them in RISP and bases-loaded situations where they haven’t really been able to produce crooked numbers. Especially seeing the amount of good contact against Longwood that didn’t get rewarded, I tend to think that’s more variance than an actual sign of the kind of offense we’re going to see, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.

As far as ECU goes, the headliner is Ethan Norby, ranked the #3 pitcher in the country by D1Baseball. As a sophomore starter last year, he pitched 90 innings with an ERA of 3.80, striking out 119 and walking just 22 while shining in ECU’s biggest games, like a regional upset win over Florida. The Friday duel between him and Jason DeCaro promises to be an exciting one, even though Norby didn’t have a fantastic first appearance this year — he lasted just 3.2 innings against Xavier, allowing 4 hits and 2 earned runs. This Pirates team returns the bulk of a squad that got hot down the stretch last year and nearly won the Conway Regional last year as a 3-seed, so there’s definitely talent there. Names to look out for in the batter’s box include Braden Burress and Austin Irby. Right fielder Jack Herring has also been raking to start the season, but the Pirates have not gotten a lot of production from the back half of the lineup. Out of the pen, look for Sean Jenkins, the power righty who’s struck out 10 in 5.2 innings with no runs allowed.

The season hasn’t started the way they wanted, but this ECU team is still a talented group with high expectations led by a coach in Cliff Godwin who knows what he’s doing. This weekend promises to be fun and, like I said, a good litmus test for the Tar Heels. Game 1, in Greenville, will start at 5:00 PM Friday the 20th of February and be televised on ESPN+. Game 2 on Saturday will be played at the DBAP starting at 2:00 PM but will not be available on television or streaming, as far as I can tell, and Game 3 in Chapel Hill will start at 1:00 PM on Sunday the 22nd.

Batting Leaders

(among players with 2 PA/game and 75% of games played)

• Batting Average: SS Jake Schaffner, .421
• On-Base Percentage: C/DH Macon Winslow, .522
• Slugging Percentage: Schaffner, .789
• Home Runs: Winslow, 2
• Runs Batted In: C/DH Colin Hynek, 7
• Hits: Schaffner, 8
• Walks: CF Owen Hull, 8
• Runs: Schaffner and Winslow, 6
• Stolen Bases: Schaffner, Hynek, and Hull, 1

Pitching Leaders

(in the future, this will be among players with 1 IP/game; for now, I’ll set the line at 3 IP)

• ERA: Jason DeCaro, Boston Flannery, Kyle Percival, and Matthew Matthijs, 0.00
• Strikeouts: DeCaro and Flannery, 7
• Innings Pitched: DeCaro, Folger Boaz, and Ryan Lynch, 5.0
• Wins: DeCaro, Boaz, and Percival, 1
• Saves: Matthijs, 1
• Batting Average Against: Matthijs, .083

PORT ST. LUCIE -- On a 3-2 count, Jonah Tong threw a biting changeup that fooled Juan Soto, who is merely the most disciplined hitter in baseball. By the time Soto recognized the offspeed pitch moving down and away late, he tried to check his swing, but it was too late. 

Because it was Soto, even if it was only live BP in spring training, the strikeout got an audible reaction from players in the dugout watching, and a visible one from Tong, who smiled and did something of a playful fist pump. 

At his locker afterward, when I asked him about it, Tong smiled again and said, “I was really happy with that,” drawing the words out for effect. 

Well, why not? It was Soto, right? And coming on the heels of Tong’s not-quite-ready-for-prime-time big-league stint late last season, who would deny him a little joy in such a moment, spring training or not. 

After all, it was hard to watch Tong struggle last season after he came up with such hype, leading the minors in strikeouts. He had his moments, and clearly showed promise, but he was young, just 22 then, and seemed to lose confidence upon seeing he couldn’t throw the ball by major league hitters the way he did in the minors, as he wound up pitching to a 7.71 ERA in five starts, giving up 24 hits in 18.2 innings.

Yet the Mets say they are as high on him as ever, even making him off-limits in the trade talks for Freddy Peralta, as they gave up Brandon Sproat (and Jett Williams) instead. 

As manager Carlos Mendoza said on Thursday, “We know he still has a very high ceiling.”

The question now is how quickly he can reach that ceiling. Tong disagrees with any notion that he learned a hard lesson about just how good major league hitters are compared to the minors, and says his takeaways from his big-league experience were all positive.

“I think I learned that if I can execute my pitches, I can put myself in position to get results at that level,” Tong said. “But the other thing I took away is that I need to give myself more options to get big-league hitters out. 

“When I had my pitches working, I felt really confident. But I’m working to add to my repertoire.”

Yes, because his go-to pitches are his high fastball, which has plenty of deception, in part because of his unusually high release point, as well as his changeup, his arsenal is almost all vertical, if you will, and the Mets are working with him to add a cutter that breaks more horizontal.

Here’s how new pitching coach Justin Willard explained it to me on Thursday:

“We’re working with him on the ability to land something else in the zone to continue to leverage the four-seamer and the changeup. Those are really good pitches but it also becomes a really simple plan for big-league hitters.”

A major league scout agreed with Willard, saying that expanding Tong’s arsenal is critical. 

“You saw it when he came up,” the scout told me on Thursday. “He couldn’t throw his curveball for strikes, or even the illusion of a strike, and they started sitting on the fastball. As deceptive as it is, with his delivery, big-league hitters will catch up to it when they can look for it. He does have a good changeup but he needs a reliable breaking ball that hitters will have to think about.”

That said, there are contrary opinions as well. Former Mets’ reliever Jerry Blevins, now an SNY analyst, thinks the Mets should be careful about messing too much with Tong’s pitching foundation. 

“I think it could be hard for him with that over-top-delivery to develop a sweeper, and I’m not sure about a cutter either,” said Blevins. “I’d really like to see him get a little more time to develop what he has. That fastball-changeup combination can be lethal, especially if he can command his curveball.”

He couldn’t do that during his call-up, and that was partly the issue for Tong as a Met. He said his curveball actually has been his favorite pitch since he was a kid, but he lost the feel for it at times last season, especially in the big leagues, and that made him all the more predictable.

As a result, the Mets are working with him to throw the curveball with more velocity this season, while hoping to keep the same big-break depth. 

“It’s like with the cutter,” said Willard. “It’s adding pitches to the arsenal to help maximize what makes him really good.”

More than likely, barring injuries to other starters in spring training, Tong will get more time in Triple-A to refine that arsenal. Remember, as dominant as he was moving up the ranks last season, he made only two starts in Triple-A before the Mets, in desperate need of starting pitching, called him up. 

How much time does he need? And does he need to rebuild his confidence?

Tong insists he came away from his big-league experience feeling that he could pitch successfully at the highest level. When I asked him if he felt he’d been “scared out of the strike zone” by major league hitters, as scouts said last season, he didn’t hesitate. 

“Not at all,” he said. “To me I learned that if I execute my pitches, I can get those hitters out. I didn’t really see a different reaction to my pitches from big-league hitters. It was more about executing. I feel confident about that.”

Maybe it’s a matter of needing to believe that, and all the better if he does, since Tong does seem to understand the need for a more complete array of pitches. 

But that little show of joy on the mound Thursday, after he struck out Soto, said a lot as well. Maybe it’s exactly what he needed.

There was a time, in the history of baseball and its Hall of Fame, in which certain numbers almost brought automatic inclusion into the game’s most exclusive clubs. Things like 3,000 hits, 300 wins, and of course, 500 home runs provided a clear pathway to Cooperstown. For the 2026 season, the Yankees have a couple of players who could make significant headway with regard specifically to that 500 home run mark. Both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have put themselves in good position to reach the number before the end of their careers, and in turn, to reach Cooperstown.

The two Yankee sluggers, assuming all goes well, will present very different cases to Hall voters when their day comes. We’ll start with Judge, who at this point has the much easier path to enshrinement, and perhaps to the 500 home run mark.

As unfortunate as it is to consider, Aaron Judge is not exactly a spring chicken. 2026 will be his age-34 season, and his 11th in the Major Leagues. On the bright side, that is about the only thing holding back the three-time MVP from hitting host of huge milestones. Since turning 30, Judge has done things on a baseball field that can only be compared to names like Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds. At this point in his career, number 99 has four different seasons with 50 or more homers (including one with 62), and has posted an OPS+ of at least 210 in three of the last four seasons. It has been said time and again, but it is impossible to argue that we are seeing an all-time great at the peak of his powers.

With regards to his reaching of 500 homers, the path is fairly straight forward. Judge has six years remaining on the contract he signed with New York prior to the 2023 season, and for the argument’s sake, we’ll assume that brings him to the end of his playing career. With 368 career homers already in the bag, Judge would need to average 22 home runs per season for the remainder of the deal. That is easier said than done, but Judge benefits greatly from the fact that he could easily knock out more than two thirds of the 132 homers he needs to join the exclusive club in the next two seasons. In fact, he’s averaged well over 50 over the last four years, and nearly 60 per 162 games in that stretch. No matter how the final few years of the contract look for Judge, he can easily do much of the needed damage in the next two or three seasons.

As far as his Hall of Fame case stands, the rest would just be gravy at that point, as his case is already nearly settled after his first decade in the league.

The case becomes a little bit blurrier when it comes to his teammate Giancarlo Stanton. For the full-time designated hitter, the greatest enemy is simply getting enough games to reach the all-important 500 mark. This has been a theme for much of his career, as he’s averaged around 28 homers per season during his career, but that number jumps all the way to 43 on a per-162-game basis.

This issue has become even more pressing since joining the Yankees in 2018, as he’s topped 140 games just one time, and has topped out at 114 over the last four seasons. It appeared, for a stretch, that he would also be battling greatly diminished performance for the final stretch of his career. He hit below his standards back in 2022, before posting his first ever below-average offensive season in ‘23. He was slightly better in 2024, though he still played in just 114 games, and left plenty of room for reasonable doubt.

Last season, however, Stanton provided some hope. It was actually a concerning year on one front, considering that he played in just 77 games, but it was positive in another: he can still rack up dingers with the very best of ‘em. In an abbreviated 281 plate appearance season, Stanton found the time to pummel 24 homers, and it wasn’t just the long ball either. The 158 OPS+ he posted in 2025 was his best mark since winning MVP with the Marlins back in 2017.

Despite the continued injury trouble, 2025 was the best that we’ve seen of Giancarlo Stanton in pinstripes. And although remaining on the field will always be the chief concern, his renaissance certainly rejuvenated his chase for 500 homers and possible enshrinement.

Stanton has two years remaining on his enormous 13-year deal, which brings him through his age-37 season. The most realistic route to 500 homers is that he continues doing what he has been — playing in 100-110 games and hitting 20-25 home runs (he needs 47). Those aren’t exactly sky-high expectations, and they are certainly within reach for Stanton. Even if he doesn’t reach 500 under this contract, it feels reasonable to think he’d latch on somewhere after in an effort to chip away at the milestone.

Assuming he does eventually get there, his Hall case will be far more consideration-worthy than Judge’s. Even if things go well, it would be pretty unlikely for him to finish above 50 fWAR, and with much of his career coming as a designated hitter, the 500 home run selling point may be a bit harder to convince voters with.

Stanton has been a terrific hitter for his entire career regardless of the finish, but if he does reach that former auto-enshrinement number, things could get interesting once his name comes up on Hall of Fame ballots.

Had the deal not occurred in the early stages of the winter, with the club still reeling from their ALCS exit, Cole Wilcox’s acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays for cash considerations would’ve delivered a classic Jerry Dipoto quote. Something in the milieu of having had their eyes on Wilcox since his draft day, seeing him as one of the most talented arms available, yadda ft. yadda.

Instead, as I wrote upon his acquisition, Wilcox appears more as tertiary decor for the M’s bullpen pile; 40-man bunting that will remain past Opening Day but is unlikely to be in Seattle for the season’s debut. In the linked blurb, I outlined Wilcox’s growth mechanically from his starting days into a higher-effort, bullpen role. Once a notable feature of the Blake Snell trade that sent that ace from Tampa Bay to San Diego, Wilcox’s post-Tommy John trajectory is a reminder that the big leaguers we see recovering fully from the knife are those who’ve been more fortunate.

Wilcox’s velocity and efficacy has never recovered fully from his 2021 time on the surgeon’s table. His halting performance and health in 2023 and 2024 demonstrated a very different ceiling than his draft day promise, where as Emerson Hancock’s former rotation-mate he secured an ample $3.3 million signing bonus to leave campus early as the 80th pick overall. Now, he’ll be in the bullpen, or even possibly the rotation once again with Hancock, helping the Tacoma Rainiers compete for a Pacific Coast League title while filling a swingman role in the aftermath of Logan Evans taking his turn on the TJ roulette.

This isn’t conclusive for Wilcox. The 26 year old showed promise a season ago, sitting around 96 mph with his sinker as a reliever and making his big league debut with the Rays for a single frame. After an age 25 season with just two appearances in the majors, Eduard Bazardo burst onto the scene with… three more seasons riding the AAA-MLB shuttle between three organizations, throwing 133.1 minor league innings and just 60.0 in the majors. At age 29, Bazardo came into camp last year as a contender for the final spot in the bullpen. It would be, for the first time in his career, a year fully spent as a big leaguer, solidifying himself as a sinker-slider mainstay for the M’s. 40 in 40s are a snapshot, a moment only somewhat more predictive than one we might’ve taken in Chattanooga, TN in 1999 when Wilcox came into this world.

Keep slingin’ it, Cole. This year might be yours. Or maybe it’s just four away.