We are now one week away from the start of the NBA season, which means many of our pre-season pipe dreams and fantasy scenarios will be doused in cold water from the reality of real NBA games. However, some of our pre-season darlings will emerge through the first few weeks and announce their arrival as players to keep an eye on in this new season.
Below is a breakdown of some of my favorite breakout candidates for the 2025-26 NBA season. Some of them have already flashed star upside, some of them showed it in college, and others are going to demonstrate it to the NBA fanbase for the first time. But let's dig in and find out why I think these players are get to soar to new heights this year. Eric
Breakout Players for 2025 Fantasy Basketball Season
Trey Murphy III (SF/PF, NO) - ADP: 52
I know it's weird to call a player with an ADP nearly inside the top 50 a breakout, but I just believe there's another level for Murphy. Last season, he averaged career highs in points (21.2), rebounds (5.1), and assists (3.5), but he played just 53 games due to injury, so his performance kind of went under the radar. People were also harping on his turnover rate increasing and his three-point shooting efficiency decreasing, but I think that's the nature of a young player stepping into a bigger role; there are some growing pains along the way.
Murphy is a talented player who can do a bit of everything and will start for a Pelicans team that will be without Dejounte Murray (Achilles) for a while. Zion Williamson is not the picture of health himself, so there could be stretches where it's just Murphy and Jordan Poole asked to shoulder the load for the Pelicans. I think Murphy's efficiency will continue to improve, and I'm going to bet on a player with his natural talents to continue to succeed.
Stephon Castle (PG/SG, SAS) - ADP: 109
You could argue that Castle started to breakout at the end of last season, when he averaged 19.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists over 26 games without De'Aaron Fox in the lineup. However, I don't think enough people are accounting for continued growth here. Castle was the fourth overall pick in last year's draft and won NBA Rookie of the Year, but he doesn't really come up in many conversations about ascending young talents.
Yes, Fox should be back a some point early in the season when his hamstring injury heals, and the Spurs drafted Dylan Harper with the second pick, but Castle doesn't really need the ball in his hands to be successful. He's an excellent slasher and understands the spacing of the floor well enough to cut into open lanes. We've also seen him look more comfortable shooting from behind the arc this preseason, which would be a major box ticked in the evolution of his game.
I don't expect him to become an elite shooter by any means, but it's just another tool in a pretty loaded toolbox.
Matas Buzelis (SF/PF, CHI) - ADP: 101
Buzelis is everybody’s breakout pick, and his ADP on Yahoo sites alone is now inside the top 80 picks. A lot of that is because of what he has done this preseason, but also because he showed what he can do in a high-usage role last season when he averaged 13.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 27 minutes per game over his final 33 games. There will be some inconsistencies because he's still a young player who just turned 21 years old this week (CHEERS!). Still, Buzelis will assuredly find himself in a high-usage role for a rebuilding Bulls team that lacks many playmakers apart from Josh Giddey and, sometimes, Coby White. Buzelis can do a little bit of everything, and I think he should be able to improve on those numbers we saw in the final 33 games, but do it for an entire season.
Toumani Camara (SF/PF, POR) - ADP: 110
Can I call somebody a breakout just because I like their vibe? I enjoy the way Camara plays basketball, and his nickname is “The Shadow,” which is almost enough of a case for him to appear in this article, but there are legitimate on-court reasons as well. Camara is an excellent defender, which will help you with STOCKS, but also will keep him on the court for major minutes. Last season, he also took a big step forward offensively, improving his usage rate and becoming more efficient as a scorer. However, he scored only 11.3 points per game, so I think another step is coming. With Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton out of town, there is more opportunity to go around, so I think Camara will see his usage rate increase again this year. He's not likely to be an elite scorer off the dribble, but he continues to improve as a shooter, so if we think of him as a 3-and-D wing with the tools to add a little value as a slasher and finisher in transition, there's a chance he pushes for top-50 value.
Reed Sheppard (PG/SG, HOU) - ADP: 111
Yes, Sheppard didn’t do much last year and played only 12.6 minutes per game, and is on a team that just traded for Kevin Durant, so he's clearly not going to emerge as a major offensive force in his second season. Still, Sheppard was the 3rd pick in last year’s draft and was a "high floor" prospect who could shoot, play defense, and see the floor well. Even as a rookie, he posted elite deflection rates that backed up his strong block and steal numbers from college. He's a strong shooter and should push for the starting PG job with Fred VanVleet out. Even if he settles in somewhere around 10-14 points per game, he's going to make some threes every game and initiate offense for a Durant-led team that should give him solid assist numbers to go along with STOCK upside. I think he can help across all nine categories.
Mitchell Robinson (C, NYK) - ADP: 182
Robinson has already “broken out” if you’re a New Yorker who has been waiting for him to start and be healthy forever. When he's on the court, his rebound numbers are insane, and he's an efficient scorer around the rim. However, things could be much better for Robinson this season. With Mike Brown now coaching the team, Robinson looks likely to start in New York with Karl Anthony Towns at power forward. That alone will allow Robinson to post tremendous rebound numbers with solid points/blocks. Yet, another level of breakout could happen because Mike Brown wants the Knicks to play fast and get out and run. Even though Robinson isn't the athlete he was as a rookie before all of his lower-body injuries, he's a great athlete for his size and could thrive in a transition-based offense. This could be a big year for Mitch.
Isaiah Jackson (C, IND) - ADP: 185
The breakout case for Jackson is simple since he will likely start at center with Myles Turner gone on a Pacers team that also needs to replace the scoring and usage of Tyrese Haliburton. Fantasy baseball drafters are aware of this, and Jackson is zooming up boards; however, there is plenty of breakout potential here. He has been great per minute as a reserve, and should have plenty of value for a team that is desperate for people to step up. Even if his offensive game doesn't take a huge step forward, he will have plenty of value in rebounds, blocks, and steals. We also need to note that he is coming off a torn Achilles, so the only question will be how quickly he actually does get back to 100%.
Adem Bona (C, PHI) - ADP: 226
Bona was basically a defense-first, high-efficiency big man off the bench for the vast majority of last season. However, he started 11 games at the end of the season with Joel Embiid hurt and posted 14.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, and 1.2 steals in those games. That's the kind of upside you're dreaming on here, and we know his breakout potential is fully tied to Embiid's health. However, Embiid is never healthy and is coming off yet another knee injury. Bona was solid for Turkey in EuroBasket, and I think he's ready for a bigger role this season. He won't be a huge scorer, but is a good athlete, with plenty of block/rebound value.
Moussa Diabate (C, CHA) - ADP: 228
The breakout case for Diabate is a little bit less for him to emerge as a star and more for him to emerge as a solid NBA starter. I think he can take over the starting center role in Charlotte, but he will have to beat out Ryan Kalkbrenner. When he was given the chance to start last year, he showed elite rebounding value and also solid STOCK value as well. He has always been a great rebounder and high-motor player, but he's also evolving as a scorer, and we've seen some nice post moves from him in the pre-season. I think he can get more involved in the offense this season, and his defense will keep him on the floor, which means he could be a legitimate double-double threat every night this season.
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