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Why Giants' Patrick Bailey is MLB's No. 1 overall defensive player, per analyst originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Since his MLB debut in 2023, Patrick Bailey has been — without a doubt — one of the best defensive catchers in the majors, as backed up by his consecutive Gold Gloves the last two seasons.

And on Friday, MLB analyst Mike Petriello took the recognition one step further, declaring the Giants backstop the current No. 1 defensive player among all major leaguers.

“If you look at [Bailey], he’s been in the league for three years — wasn’t even here the full year the first time — he has led in Statcast Fielding Run Value every single year,” Petriello explained on MLB Now. “That’s three years running.

“I know the bat isn’t there, but that’s not what we’re talking about. Elite framer, elite blocker, actually has improved his blocking … . He’s elite.”

For additional context on just how dominant Bailey has been in the Fielding Runs Value stat, he has +79 runs in his three MLB seasons. The next closest player, Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk, comes in at just +50 runs.

Much of Bailey’s dominance in this metric is a result of his framing, which accounts for 65 of the 79 runs. Of course, with the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system being added full-time in MLB for the upcoming season, it remains to be seen whether that neutralizes the effect of Bailey’s framing.

However, Bailey also ranks highly in other fielding aspects behind the plate. His +16 throwing runs are five more than any other catcher since his 2023 debut; Bailey has thrown out 55 attempted base stealers in that frame with a 29-percent caught stealing rate.

And finally, as Petriello noted, Bailey’s blocking — which was once a weakness — now ranks above average, too. After recording -2 blocking runs in his rookie season, he improved in that category to an even 0 in 2024 and +1 in 2025.

So even if Bailey’s framing isn’t as impactful in 2026, he still should remain one of the top defensive catchers — and overall players — across MLB.

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The answer here, on the surface, is obvious: don’t allow runs. But what are the factors which go into a bullpen that’s good at run prevention? There are some obvious metrics which clearly have an impact. A high strikeout rate, for example: you can’t score, if you are carrying your bat back to the dugout. A low walk rate, similarly: free passes are never a good thing. Not allowing home-runs, too. These really don’t deserve looking into much. But there are other numbers where the correlation is less apparent. Ground-ball rate, say. Does dialing up a lot of ground balls help a bullpen? Or are fly-balls, which typically turn into outs more often, better?

To find out, I pulled numbers from Fangraphs for the last five years, for each of the thirty MLB teams. That’s 150 data points in total. I chose eight metrics and worked out the correlation of each against both ERA and FIP. Correlation is a number between -1 and +1: the closer to the extreme, the greater the connection between the two sets of numbers. +1 is a positive correlation: as X goes up, so does Y. -1 means as X goes up, Y goes down. 0 means the two data sets appear not to be linked. I’d expect the number of runs the D-backs score and my calorie intake at breakfast that day to be a zero correlation.

Below, you’ll find the metrics ranked in increasing order of average correlation.

#8. Fastball velocity. Average correlation: -0.088

Well, this was a surprise. The least significant metric to both bullpen ERA and FIP was pure power. Now, there is a known and logical link between velocity and K-rate. But for bullpens as a whole, that doesn’t seem to apply much. I think that may be because the best relief corps don’t just blow pitches past people. They have a variety of arms, approaches and slot angles, which let them keep batters off-balance. If all you’re seeing is 98-99 mph, hitters will eventually settle in. Variety makes that harder. If you look at the 2017 D-backs bullpen (perhaps our last truly good one), yes, they had Archie Bradley averaging 96.4. But they also had T.J. McFarland.

#7. Ground ball rate. Average correlation: -0.216

The negative number means the higher the ground ball rate, the lower the ERA and FIP. Which is what you want. While short of a definitive link, anyone who remembers Brad Ziegler will know it helps, even though ground balls are more likely to become hits. That factor is countered by a couple of things. Firstly, ground balls are much more likely to lead to double-plays, which is the best possible outcome. They also won’t become home-runs (without significant help!), the worst possible outcome. All told the OPS on ground balls last year across MLB was .514, while on fly balls it was .840, and that doesn’t take into account the sweet, sweet joy of a well-turned double-play.

#6. Line-drive rate. Average correlation: 0.290

Line drives are bad, m’kay? They are far more likely to become hits, with a BABIP of .616, compared to .245 for ground balls and just .091 for fly-balls (though the last have the best home-run chance). That helps lead to a meaty triple-slash line of .629/.622/.871 on line drives, a 1.492 OPS. So, more important for pitching than ground balls or fly balls, is simply avoiding line drives. While that is a skill, it’s one which is subject to random variation. In theory, we could look to buy low on a pitcher with a typically good LD rate which has spiked. But there’s always the risk the spike is not random.

[Random aside. Bunts last year had a .482 batting average! You may be wondering why hitters aren’t trying it more often. That’s partly a false number, because if you bunt with a runner on-base, you’ll typically get credit for a sacrifice even if you fail, and that doesn’t count against batting average. Include those back in, and the average goes down to .269. With close to no chance of an extra-base hit, that’s why you’re usually better to swing away. We now return to your regularly scheduled article.]

#5. Exit velocity. Average correlation: 0.382

You might be beginning to detect a theme here, although this one might almost fall into the category of obvious enough not to need confirmation. If you give up a lot of hard-hit balls, bad things happen. Yeah. This is my unsurprised face. I am, however, gratified that my number is close to that from a Fangraphs study, which found a similar correlation at the individual player (rather than the team) level: “an r of .33 for ERA and an r of .40 for FIP”. The study notes that pitchers with lower exit velocities also tend to be better at limiting home-runs, which is logical – and also better at striking out batters. That seems a little less obvious.

#4. Hard hit %. Average correlation: 0.398

You’d think “Hard hit” would be easily defined, but note there are two different metrics here: Hard% and HardHit%. The former comes from Statcast, and is simply balls in play with an exit velocity of 95+ mph. But Fangraphs also has Hard%, which is those “classified as hit with hard speed by Baseball Info Solutions”. Nobody seems to know specifically what this means – it’s proprietary – but seems to involve trajectory as well. We will get to that in a bit, but the Fangraphs version here is only a few points better correlated than the simple average of exit velocity in the paragraph above.

#3. Barrel%. Average correlation: 0.492

Barrels are the best kind of hard-hit balls, the highest quality of contact when combining power and direction. They need to be at least 98 mph, and hit at a certain launch angle. That latter component varies depending on the velocity: the harder the ball, the bigger the range of acceptable launch angles. They aren’t common: only a half-dozen batters passed 70 barrels over all of last year. But when they happen, they are kryptonite for pitchers: the season they were initially defined in 2016, barrels resulted in a batting average of .822, and a 2.386 slugging percentage. Give up very many of those, and you’ll have a bad day on the mound.

#2. Hard%. Average correlation: 0.590

As noted above, this is best described as the BIS version of a barrel. Although nobody seems to know exactly what this means – it’s proprietary – but seems to involve trajectory as well as velocity. One comment on that post suggests its just BIS interns eyeballing things. But that is on Reddit, where anyone can claim anything (and frequently does). However, it clearly does a better job at correlating with bullpen results than the related metrics we discussed above. On the other hand, it may not be skills: studies suggest “hitters just have much more control over how hard their batted balls are hit than pitchers.”

#1. Left on base%. Average correlation: -0.666

Turns out nothing is better for a bullpen than stranding base-runners. However, this was the metric where there was the biggest gap in correlation between ERA and FIP. For the latter, the correlation was down at -0.515, but for ERA is was all the way up at -0.818. Why the difference? I suspect because LOB% is quite heavily dependent on defense. The problem is, pitchers don’t tend to have much control over this, unless you think “clutch” pitching i.e. with RISP is a thing. High K pitchers tend to be better there. But as we’ve seen, they tend to be better anyway. However, free agents with a lower than usual LOB% might represent good bounceback candidates for 2026.

What have we learned. Probably less than would justify me writing fifteen hundred words on the topic. Though I did gain some knowledge regarding these metrics, and it beat staring out the window and waiting for the D-backs to do anything. To build a good bullpen, you want pitchers that are adept at avoiding hard contact (however you want to measure it), and are particularly proficient at leaving runners on base. Good luck with that. Ground ball pitchers are somewhat preferred preferred, but you don’t necessarily simply want to load up on flamethrowers, because that will allow hitters to get comfortable.

However, I want to point out again that consistently creating a good bullpen is hard. Indeed, it may be close to impossible. In 2018, Jeff Sullivan plotted bullpen Win Probability against the same number the following year. The results are the amorphous blob shown above, and show almost no correlation (0.04). Having a good bullpen one season does little or nothing to help you the next season – for comparison, starting pitching and hitting WP both had a 0.14 correlation. So it’s possible Mike Hazen has simply had the equivalent of coming up tails ten times in a row. Maybe 11th time will be the charm?

The Vikings aren’t the only Minnesota team to shake things up at an odd time Friday.

The Twins and president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey “mutually” split roughly two weeks before spring training, the team announced.

The Vikings also axed general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on Friday, with his dismissal coming on the opposite end of the spectrum since the team’s offseason just started.

“Following a series of thoughtful conversations with (executive chair) Tom (Pohlad) that began after the ownership transition and progressed over the past few weeks, we both agreed it was the right time for us to party ways,” Falvey said in a statement. “Ownership transitions naturally create moments for reflection and honest dialogue about leadership, vision, and how an organization wants to move forward.

“Over the past several weeks we had those conversations open and constructively and ultimately reached a shared understanding that this was the right step both for the organization and for me personally.”

Splitting with your top baseball and business executive with spring training right around the corner is a rather odd move, even if its labeled as a mutual decision.

The Athletic noted that Falvey served as the lead speaker at the team’s media luncheon one week ago, indicating the sudden nature of this move.

It seem that Pohlad being named the controlling owner in December 2025 factored into this decision, with ESPN reporting at the time that never worked in baseball before.

There could be different visions for the team at play, and the Twins are now without an executive who helped build a competitive roster over the past decade.

The Twins made Falvey their Chief Baseball Officer in October 2016 and promoted him to president of baseball operations in 2019.

He earned another bump to president of baseball and business operations this past March.

Falvey’s tenure included four postseason berths and three AL Central titles, the latest coming in 2023.

The Twins announced general manager Jeremy Zoll will continue “leading” the baseball department and Pohlad will have “interim” duties overseeing business duties.

Pohlad said the team will immediately conduct a search for a new president of baseball operations.

“We reached a shared understanding that the needs of the organizations are evolving and that a leadership transition is the best way to move forward,” Pohlad said in a statement.

Falvey said in his statement he doesn’t have any immediate plans, but will enjoy being with his family while he considers his next step.

The Twins are coming off a disappointing 70-92 season that landed them in fourth place in the AL Central, but have done little to improve this offseason.

They hired ex-Pirates manager Derek Shelton to be their next skipper.

In another sign that spring training is drawing closer, today the Mariners announced their 2026 NRIs. If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that NRI stands for “non-roster invite”: that is, the players who are not on the 40-man who nonetheless receive an invite to spring training, and the perks (and per diems) thereof. This group tends to be divided between top prospects getting a taste of life in the bigs and minor-leaguers or veterans looking to catch on with a new club. At least, that’s how we have them divided below. We’ll be updating this article with blurbs about each of the players, so check back, and make sure to bookmark this for when you inevitably say “wait, who?” during spring training.

The invites are divided between 15 pitchers and 19 position players. Of the 34, 24 spent time in the Mariners organization last year, either as prospects or minor-league signings. One of the names that might jump out to fans of the Tacoma Rainiers is Bryan O’Keefe, a long-tenured catcher for Tacoma. Other familiar names include established big-leaguers Dane Dunning, Randy Dobnak, and former Mariner Patrick Wisdom, as well as former first-rounder Will Wilson, taken 15th overall by the Angels in 2019.

Seven of the invited players appear on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects. Those players are marked with a star.

A few things of note: Jurrangelo Cijntje, who was drafted as a switch-pitcher and has been announced as that previously, is listed here as a right-handed pitcher. Also, former top prospect Felnin Celesten, who fell out of the Top 100 rankings this season after struggling with injuries, did not receive an invite to camp. The Mariners’ top two 2025 draftees, pitcher Kade Anderson and catcher Luke Stevenson, both received invites; the two have been rooming together and working out in Arizona, and it will be exciting to (hopefully) see the battery of top draft picks this spring.

Pitchers:

LHPs (2):

Kade Anderson*, Austin Kitchen

RHPs (13):

Charlie Beilenson, Jurrangelo Cijntje*, Tyler Cleveland, Nick Davila, Randy Dobnak, Dane Dunning, Casey Lawrence, Teddy McGraw, Michael Morales, Gabe Mosser, Michael Rucker, Ryan Sloan*, Guillo Zuñiga

Position Players:

INF (6):

Michael Arroyo*, Colt Emerson*, Brock Rodden, Carson Taylor, Will Wilson, Patrick Wisdom

OF (6):

Brennen Davis, Jonny Farmelo*, Victor Labrada, Lazaro Montes*, Spencer Packard, Jared Sundstrom

INF/OF (1):

Blake Rambusch

C (6):

Josh Caron, Connor Charping, Bryan O’Keefe, Nick Raposo, Jakson Reetz, Luke Stevenson

We’re so close to Spring Training! So close! And we’re surprisingly close to finishing our ranking of the top 44 prospects in the San Francisco Giants organization, too. The list marches on, as we gear up for real baseball once more.

The next name on the list is a newcomer: it’s outfielder Cam Maldonado, who makes his CPL debut as the No. 34 prospect in the system. Maldonado, who hits and fields right-handed, was the team’s seventh-round pick in July’s draft out of Northeastern, and received a signing bonus ($287,400) right in line with his draft position.

He got into 17 games after being drafted, all with Low-A San Jose, where he hit .237/.352/.339 for a .691 OPS and a 92 wRC+.

Maldonado, who turned 22 in November, has some big time tools, notably his speed. He stole five bases in his short stint with the Baby Giants (without getting caught), and in his three years of college ball he swiped 90 bags, while being caught just 13 times. But he’s no tweener: he also has some exciting power, and bopped 15 home runs in just 60 games in his final season with Northeastern, while sporting a .631 slugging percentage and a .279 isolated slugging.

The downsides are ones that are shared by a few of his prospects in this area of the list. The biggest hole in Maldonado’s game is that there’s a large amount of swing and miss. He K’d in 18.8% of his at-bats last year with Northeastern which, on the one hand, represented huge improvement over his 25.9% rate the year prior but, on the other hand, is still a way-too-high number for college, especially outside of a power conference.

Maldonado also has, despite his speed, some question marks surrounding his center field defense, though those question marks are more of the “unknown” variety than the “red flag” variety, which is the case with most outfielders getting ready for their first full season of affiliated ball. Needless to say, we’ll likely get some clarity on his defensive abilities in the upcoming year, and if he can play decently in center, that will make his offensive profile a lot greener. I’d expect him to return to San Jose to start the year, where he should play every day in the outfield, and hopefully see a lot of time in the center of the grass.

Now let’s add to the list, and we’ve got some new names to vote on today.

The list so far

1. Bryce Eldridge — 1B
2. Josuar González — SS
3. Jhonny Level — SS
4. Bo Davidson — CF
5. Dakota Jordan — CF
6. Luis Hernandez — SS
7. Gavin Kilen — SS
8. Carson Whisenhunt — LHP
9. Blade Tidwell — RHP
10. Keyner Martinez — RHP
11. Jacob Bresnahan — LHP
12. Trevor McDonald — RHP
13. Argenis Cayama — RHP
14. Luis De La Torre — LHP
15. Trevor Cohen — OF
16. Jesús Rodríguez — C
17. Parks Harber — OF/3B
18. Carlos Gutierrez — OF
19. Drew Cavanaugh — C
20. Daniel Susac — C
21. Gerelmi Maldonado — RHP
22. Josh Bostick — RHP
23. Lorenzo Meola — SS/2B
24. Will Bednar — RHP
25. Yunior Marte — RHP
26. Joe Whitman — LHP
27. Joel Peguero — RHP
28. Alberto Laroche — RHP
29. Trent Harris — RHP
30. Carlos De La Rosa — LHP
31. Diego Velasquez — 2B
32. Lisbel Diaz — OF
33. Maui Ahuna — SS
34. Cam Maldonado — OF

Note: Clicking on the above names will link to the CPL where they were voted onto the list.

No. 35 prospect nominees

Rayner Arias — 19.9-year old OF — .173 OPS/-42 wRC+ in Low-A (30 PA); .699 OPS/87 wRC+ in ACL (178 PA)

VictorBericoto — 24.1-year old OF/1B — .478 OPS/16 wRC+ in AAA (46 PA); .784 OPS/130 wRC+ in AA (393 PA)

SabinCeballos — 23.5-year old 3B — .670 OPS/102 wRC+ in AA (420 PA)

JackChoate — 24.9-year old LHP — 3.51 ERA/4.17 FIP in AA (102.2 IP)

JakobChristian — 23.4-year old OF/1B — .950 OPS/155 wRC+ in High-A (92 PA); .815 OPS/119 wRC+ in Low-A (318 PA)

Reggie Crawford — 25.1-year old LHP — did not pitch in 2025; 1.04 ERA/4.07 FIP in AAA in 2024 (8.2 IP); 4.66 ERA/4.93 FIP in AA in 2024 (9.2 IP)

Reid Worley — 19.6-year old RHP — yet to debut

Note: Each player’s first name links to their Baseball-Reference page, and their last name links to their Fangraphs page. All stats are from the 2025 season.