The Milwaukee Brewers (60%) get on base better than anybody against right-handed pitching, and they should have plenty of opportunities to do so facing Rhett Lowder.
I expect Milwaukee to put up a big number tonight, and my Brewers vs. Reds prediction and MLB picks reflect that.
Who will win Brewers vs Reds today: Milwaukee Brewers (61%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Rhett Lowder is very hittable, which becomes especially evident when he goes up against a quality offense.
He has posted a 7.22 ERA over 12 starts against teams ranking Top-10 in OBP vs. right-handed pitching. Unfortunately for Lowder, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the league in that category.
They are likely to string together hits in bulk, and Lowder’s 15th percentile barrel rate will also elevate their ability to generate power.
The Brewers are in a great spot to score early and often, making the Over an attractive buy.
Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Reds do possess real power. Aided by playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, only five teams have gone deep more times at home this season.
Play to 53%.
Brewers vs Reds home run prediction: Jake Bauers (23%)
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Isolating matchups against starters ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in xSLG and FB% against left-handed bats, Bauers has homered in seven of 12 games.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 98-89, -11.36 units
Over/Under bets: 94-87-6, -5.27 units
Brewers vs Reds weather
Temperatures are expected to comfortably sit in the 90s with winds blowing out. Very favorable hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark.
Brewers vs Reds odds
Moneyline: Brewers 60% | Reds 41%
Run line: Brewers -1.5 (48%) | Reds +1.5 (53%)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51%) | Under 9.5 (50%)
Brewers vs Reds trend
Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.0 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Reds.
How to watch Brewers vs Reds and game info
Location
Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio
Date
Friday, Sept. 4, 2026
First pitch
6:10 p.m. ET
TV
Brewers.TV, Reds.TV
Brewers starting pitcher
Shane Drohan (7-5, 3.75 ERA)
Reds starting pitcher
Rhett Lowder (6-8, 5.14 ERA)
Brewers vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Yankees (80-60) continue their swing along the West Coast with a weekend series in San Diego against the Padres (73-67).
Each of these teams is currently in the hunt for a playoff berth, but the Padres’ situation is far more tenuous. The Yankees are ten clear of the pack in the race for a Wild Card spot and are very much alive in the hunt for the division title trailing the Rays by just three games. The Padres are on the outside looking in, trailing the Diamondbacks by 0.5 games for the final Wild Card spot…and they are not catching the Dodgers in the NL West.
San Diego’s outlook is grim following a recent run of awful results. After being swept by the Rays last weekend, the Padres lost two of three against the Reds earlier this week. The Yankees arrive in San Diego feeling good after taking two of three to open this road trip in Orange County against the Angels. Last weekend they took three of four from the Red Sox.
Max Fried (4-4, 2.80 ERA) is scheduled to start for New York. Battling a bone bruise that has put him on the shelf at times, Fried has been exceptional of late. In four starts in August, the veteran has not allowed more than a run in any of them. For the month he has thrown 20.1 innings and allowed three runs. Walker Buehler (8-6, 4.66 ERA) takes the ball for the Padres. After a slow start to the season, Buehler has performed better of late. Last month, Buehler allowed 11 runs over 31.1 innings.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Padres
Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
Time: 9:40PM EST
Site: Petco Park
City: San Diego, CA
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, YES, Padres.TV
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The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Padres – September 4
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-121), San Diego Padres (+101)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+139), Padres +1.5 (-169)
Total: 7.5 runs
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Yankees vs. Padres for September 4
Yankees: Max Fried Season Totals: 90.0 IP, 4-4, 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 83K, 28 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Padres
Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have each gone yard in their careers against Max Fried
Max Fried has struck out 4 hitters in 3 of his last 6 starts and 7 in the other 3
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 6-10 including 2 HRs in his career against Walker Buehler
Ryan McMahon has struck out 14 times in 36 career ABs against Buehler
Walker Buehler has not struck out more than 5 in any of his last 6 starts and struck out 5 in just 1 of those 6
Cody Bellinger is riding a 6-game hitting streak (12-25)
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Padres
The Padres are 79-61 on the Run Line this season
The Yankees are 69-71 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 62 times in games involving the Padres this season (62-75-3)
The OVER has cashed 61 times in games involving the Yankees this season (61-75-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Padres for September 4
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Padres and the Yankees:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 7.5.
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LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 14: Cameron Carr #43 of the Los Angeles Lakers talks to the media after the game against the LA Clippers on July 14, 2026 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason. Today, we look at Cameron Carr.
If you rule out Dalton Knecht’s hot start in his rookie campaign before petering out pretty rapidly, the last time the Lakers got notable production from their first round draft pick was…Lonzo Ball in 2017.
In fairness, they’ve traded a number of those picks, either for Anthony Davis or Dennis Schröder or Luka Dončić or when acquiring or dealing away Russell Westbrook. But going nearly a decade without any real impact from a first round pick is putting the team behind the eight ball, especially in comparison with the likes of the Spurs and Thunder built on the back of lots of first round picks.
Fans have been yearning for a young player to get excited about, so when Cameron Carr showed out this summer, it built up a lot of excitement and anticipation. He showed an ability to score at multiple levels and is a high-flyer, qualities that would get any fanbase excited.
With the Lakers shifting to a younger, more athletic version of the team this offseason, Carr feels like a natural fit. But how quickly can he make an impact?
What is his best-case scenario?
In Summer League, Carr’s off-ball scoring stood out as one of the skills that could translate most quickly to the NBA. He was able to knock down threes coming around screens on the perimeter, connect on mid-range jumpers on pindown screens or get to the rim on curls to the basket.
With one of Luka or Austin Reaves basically a lock to be on the floor, Carr is unlikely to be on the ball much. If he can continue to be a high-level scorer off the ball, though, then he’s going to find minutes. While the Lakers have many guards on the roster, none have the skill set as a scorer that Carr does, which should very well lead to him getting time on the floor.
If he can knock down shots consistently and provide a threat all over the floor that opponents have to be aware of, then he’s going to be in the rotation. The more he’s able to be impactful offensively, the more leeway he’ll get defensively, too.
He has the length to be a chaos creator on that end. If he can do enough of that while learning how to be a consistent defender on that end as well, then it’ll also help keep him on the floor.
What is his worst-case scenario?
What if he’s just Dalton Knecht 2.0? It feels harsh to say about Knecht, but considering how far he’s fallen, it’s hard to deny it.
Knecht has always struggled defensively, but made up for it by being a flamethrower on offense. When those shots stopped falling, his minutes dropped and, now, he’s reduced to garbage time cameos.
As with basically any rookie, he’s going to be a bad defender from the jump. But if he can’t improve on that end, similar to Knecht’s struggles, then it might be déjà vu all over again.
For him to go down that track, though, it would also require his offense to disappear. Given the variety of ways he can score, it feels less likely for that to happen, or at least not in the same way it did for Knecht. Instead, it might come in the way of his indecision or hesitation about when to shoot, drive, or pass.
In short, he looks like a rookie overwhelmed by bigger, faster and stronger players in the NBA.
What is his most likely role on the team?
Carr impressed enough in Summer League that it’s hard not to envision him getting a shot. That being said, the team is full of guards and Carr is going to have to distinguish himself from the pack.
As mentioned, he has the skill set to do that, but he still has to produce. Whether by way of a bigger rotation this season or stepping up when players miss time, Carr is going to get chances. He’ll likely be on the edge of the rotation to start the season.
Whether he bucks the trend of a decade of Lakers first round picks will be up to him.
INGLEWOOD, CA - APRIL 26: Ben Simmons #25 of the LA Clippers looks on during Round One, Game Four of the 2025 NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets on April 26, 2025 at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Earlier this offseason, Ben Simmons hinted that he was eyeing a return to the NBA after taking the 2025-26 season off. He told Clay Skipper of Men’s Health that he didn’t “have a plan on where” he would sign, before adding, “Maybe I’ll go back to Philly.”
He is not going back to Philly. Instead, he agreed to a one-year, veteran-minimum contract with the Sacramento Kings on Friday, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
So, why did the Sixers let the Kings beat them to the punch? Aside from, well, you know…
Ben Simmons on passing up a dunk vs. the Hawks in Game 7 of the 2021 East Semis:
"I wasn't hitting my sh*t, so motherf*cker, you knock it down! I just gave it to somebody [Matisse Thybulle] who was shooting a higher percentage free throw at the time."
For one, they didn’t have the money to sign Simmons—or almost anyone else, for that matter.
The Sixers hard-capped themselves at the $209.0 million first apron in basically every possible way this offseason. After their flood of offseason moves, they’re roughly $1.8 million below that line at the moment.
Since Simmons is signing a one-year, veteran-minimum deal, he’ll have a cap hit of only $2.4 million—the same as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—despite earning $3.5 million in actual salary. Still, signing him would have pushed the Sixers roughly $600,000 above the first apron, so they would have needed to clear some salary first.
Even if the Sixers did have the financial wiggle room to sign Simmons, though, it’s hard to imagine that’s how they would have spent their last open roster spot.
Since his infamous blunder against the Atlanta Hawks in the 2021 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Simmons has played a total of 108 games over the past half-decade. The Sixers already have one gigantic injury question mark in Joel Embiid. The last thing they need is to fill their last open roster spot with an even bigger one.
While the Sixers could use another rangy defensive forward, it’s unclear whether Simmons is still the type of defender who earned a pair of All-Defense first-team nods earlier in his career. We haven’t seen that version of him in a half-decade.
The Sixers used Simmons as an oversized point guard back in his heyday, but in case you weren’t aware, they landed another jumbo playmaker this offseason. Some guy named LeBron James? He’s apparently pretty good. Still need to watch the tape to confirm.
Between James, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and even rookie Labaron Philon Jr., the Sixers suddenly have more ball-handling and playmaking than they’ve had in years. Heading into the season, backup center looks like their biggest question mark. That may be the best use of their remaining open roster spot once we get into the season.
We also still have no idea what this year’s Sixers will look like—and more importantly, what their strengths and weaknesses will be. They should be a dynamo in transition, and they have the talent on paper to boast one of the league’s best offenses, but that’s all theoretical right now. As Jaylen Brown would say, they need to roll the ball out to figure out what their biggest needs are.
Once they’ve had a few months to suss that out, they can look to address those holes either at the trade deadline or on the buyout market. As weird as this is to say, they could be one of the premier destinations for ring-chasers later this year. They might have their pick of the litter on the in-season free-agent market. Would it be worth giving that up in the hopes that Simmons isn’t broken anymore?
If Simmons stays healthy and looks like his former self, perhaps the Sixers revisit acquiring him at the trade deadline. Jabari Walker and/or Justin Edwards are easy salary matches, if so. But for now, they’ll just have to watch from afar to see how Simmons’ comeback tour goes in Sacramento.
Godspeed, Kings fans. You’re always welcome to take refuge here.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 02: Bryson Stott #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies gets ready to make a play against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 02, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
You don’t need a piece on TheGoodPhight or somewhere else to tell you the Phillies look different. Simply reading the lineup and seeing several players change positions will tell you enough. It’s very different.
Since the start of August, the Phillies are 22-8, roughly when the trade deadline came and went. They were active at that deadline, trading one of their best pitching prospects for Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian, then making a smaller trade for Brooks Raley. You would think that is why the Phillies have taken a massive step forward.
But what if I told you that those moves haven’t really helped them at all? Yes, Luis Arraez, even with an 80 wRC+ in a Phillies uniform, is a big indirect upgrade over Gabriel Rincones jr, Adolis Garcia, and whatever else the Phillies were trying. However, he still has an 80 wRC+ with solid but not world-beating defense. On top of that, Caleb Killian looked like a disaster in four outings before hitting the injured list and Brooks Raley looks like a serviceable middle reliever but nothing more.
In total, the Phillies trade deadline acquisitions have been worth a combined 0.0 fWAR so far, there is still plenty of time for that to change but it shouldn’t be labeled as a success at the moment.
So how did a team that went 57-53 over the first four months of the season balloon to 79-61? Here are some of the big steps forward from the Phillies’ most unlikely contributors.
Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter solidifying the rotation
Arguably, the Phillies most pressing need five weeks ago was to find one or even two more viable starting pitchers. Aaron Nola had an ERA over 6 prior to August while Andrew Painter was in AAA because his first 65 innings in the majors were a disaster. Alan Rangel and Brian Keller were getting bulk innings or starts at one point, without anyone on the injured list, because the Phillies back of the rotation had been such a mess.
There has been a little smoke and mirrors for Nola thanks to a 95.2% left on base rate (LOB%) but a 2.65 ERA in 34 innings is worth a lot.
Andrew Painter is now getting a more reliable fastball shape thanks to some delivery tweaks and has been working with a new changeup grip, ditching his unreliable splitter in AAA. Hitters are hitting just .075 on the new changeup, without any extra base hits and are whiffing at it 32.2% of the time.
It’s obviously not just those two who have taken a step forward. Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez have ERAs well below 2 but frontline-caliber starters have stretches like this. The Phillies issue was that two of every five days had big question marks about the starting rotation. That isn’t the case right now, even if Zack Wheeler hasn’t looked sharp.
Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm transforming in new positions
It’s unfair to not mention Bryce Harper playing like an MVP candidate in August and walking 25% of the time. So it’ll be mentioned here.
Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm did not have the biggest challenges in the world moving down the defensive spectrum to new positions. Stott has specifically taken to third base extremely well, already recording four outs above average there. Bohm’s first base has generally looked stable and just getting him off third has helped things.
Offensively, they’re both providing bottom half of the lineup offense the Phillies were lacking for months. Stott has hit a cold stretch but still has a 119 wRC+ in his last 124 plate appearances. Alec Bohm has started swinging nearly 2 mph faster on average with a slight decrease in groundballs. It has lead to an .851 OPS first baseman, which is significantly better than before.
Those are the two biggest surprises but Justin Crawford also deserves praise as a regular that is coming through. Even with a recent cold streak, Crawford has still looked roughly like a league average hitter since the start of August without a massive BABIP spike. For someone that is probably batting 8th or 9th in October, it’s a huge jump.
Alex McFarlane already looks like the Phillies second or third best reliever
A fastball over 100 mph with a sinker, and two very good horizontal breaking pitches, McFarlane has looked nasty since rejoining the Phillies. With every outing, he looks a little more comfortable and composed. His last outing, escaping a first-and-second-with-no-outs situation unscathed, probably gives him plenty of runway as a leverage arm down the stretch and into October.
The bullpen trust tree obviously starts with Jhoan Duran at the top and Jonathan Bowlan should absolutely factor in right behind him, even with the solo home run he allowed Wednesday (on a back-to-back after doing an up-down the day before). McFarlane is probably the third guy even if he might just walk the bases loaded in a playoff game, he also might just strike all of them out.
An upgraded bench
When Edmundo Sosa, Bryan De La Cruz, and Derek Hill have played this month, they do something. Whether it’s Sosa hitting a three-run bomb in the ninth to give the Phillies the lead, Bryan De La Cruz hitting .294 with 9 RBIs or it’s Derek Hill drawing a big walk, hitting a walk-off, or making a diving catch. It’s kind of the perfect bench, each player just finding a way to do something whenever the manager calls on them.
So even with an underwhelming trade deadline so far, the upgrades the Phillies have seen internally have completely changed the club’s expectations and performance. Just off recent trends, the Phillies look like a World Series threat with everything clicking at the right time. They might even mess around and win the division.
Boston, MA - August 21: Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet throws in the outfield before the game. The Boston Red Sox played the San Francisco Giants at Fenway Park on August 21, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Ceddanne Rafaela, who has mostly been a model of perfect health throughout his short big league career, missed last night’s win in Baltimore with a tight right quad. He’s not going on the IL at this point, but given that there isn’t that much on the line for the rest of the season, he’s going to get plenty of time off to get better. We’ll essentially be day to day,“ said Chad Tracy. ”He’s going to get treatment like crazy, and we’ll be day to day to see how he feels and how he’s progressing… we’ll get a better idea over the next couple of days of how much improvement you’re seeing, and that’ll be easier to answer. But right now, we’re not going to put them out there until we see good improvement.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)
Thankfully, the injury news isn’t all bad. Tanner Houck pitched in a Bridge League game this week (what the hell is the Bridge League?) and will throw another simulated game today. If everything goes well, he hopes to start a rehab assignment next week. Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet will also throw his first bullpen session today, but it sounds like he’s much further behind Houck. “I don’t think it’ll be an excessive amount of pitches,” Tracy said. “This is first time off the slope, actually pitching off the slope, not just playing catch. So we’ll see how that goes. Hopefully it goes well and we’ll progress him from there.” (Christopher Smith, MassLive)
I’m not getting my hopes up about either Houck or Crochet being big contributors down the stretch. But that said, the pitching does seem to need a refresher right about now. (Scott McLaughlin, WEEI)
If Tanner Houck does make it back and finds a way to contribute to the postseason, that that will have been quite the journey, considering that he’s been MIA for over a calendar year. But no Red Sox journey is more impressive than that of Mickey Gasper, who initially signed for just $5,000. The scout who signed him isn’t surprised at his ascent, though. “There’s certain things you’re drawn to as a scout, and one is this common thread of makeup, and the desire to be at the park and put the work in and just never give up,” said Matt Hyde. “Even getting sent back down to Worcester and then being brought back up and hitting another home run, it’s like, ‘Yeah, that’s no surprise.’” (Tyler Kepner, The Athletic)
Last night, though, it was Adley Rutschman, not Gasper, playing home run hero. Of course it was fitting that his breakout game with the Sox happend at Camden Yards. “The people of Baltimore have always treated me with an unbelievable amount of respect and love,” he said. “I always felt that when I was here.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
Baltimore is where Rutschman started his big league career, but it’s not where he began in baseball. That would be Oregon, where he comes from a family of baseball legends. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)
If you were writing the script of the Cubs season, I’m sending it back for re-writes. My son, not particularly a baseball fan, has found the path to conversation is being the sounding board for what I’m going to write. He’s always asking what the gist of my story is going to be about. Given that he’s not much a baseball guy, I often use non-baseball analogies. Here, I explained my thinking: “It is Empire Strikes Back for too long. You have to eventually get to Return of the Jedi.” If we’re at the movies or binging this on Netflix, you eventually leave or change the proverbial channel. No one wants to be watching the villains winning ad infinitum. The worm needed to turn.
Elsewhere, on social media I said it that the last 13 games was basically useless time. If you are a daily follower, you’ll have seen me recently yawning about a blowout win. Over the previous 13 games, the Cubs had lost nine games and had four blow-out wins. Totally useless. First off, there probably aren’t going to be 17-2 games in the playoffs. It’s not going to get that sideways. But if it does, we can do that. The Cubs are incredibly adept at piling on when the other team starts going sideways. They’ve been good at that for years and with souped up Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman post-fountain of youth, they are elite at it now. They can pile fast. And their pitchers seem to thrive in that environment. Yeah, who among us is surprised that marginal pitchers become good pitchers when they can pitch downhill and attack?
Ironically, this was exactly the game I was talking about yesterday. Offense bad, pitching good. For one, that’s where the Brewers try to take the game. They don’t want to slugfest with anyone. They want to play fundamental baseball and beat you with pitching and defense. Their offense, is incredibly adept at playing downhill. They are a quintessential sum of the parts better than the individual pieces offense. I’m sure I’m being equal parts flippant and naive, but it feels like they’ve got one maybe two players at best that the Dodgers or Yankees would chase from a position player standpoint. And yet, year after year that offense produces. And produces better than anyone expected.
This game matters because they beat the Brewers at the Brewers’ game. The Cub pitching was a little better which is saying something given that the Brewers held the Cubs to three hits. Three hits, one walk, no hits after the third inning. That’s elite. And the Cubs found a way to win. Here’s the thing, from a practical standpoint, the Brewers did what they needed to do in this series. Four days off of the calendar, no ground yielded. The division is over. The Brewers will never self destruct the way it would take to blow this lead. That’s the reality. They are going to win the division. Their battle is finishing the adventure and getting the No. 1 seed. In a world where the seeds hold, they get the Wild Card winner while the Dodgers and Braves have to slug it out against each other. That’s their objective. Don’t have to beat both the Dodgers and Braves to get to the Series.
But I will say this. The Cubs got everything they needed out of this series. They left a lot that they wanted behind. No question. It’s not an exciting pill to swallow a split and the cold reality of having to go the Wild Card route and risk not getting into longer series. But check these things out.
On Monday, the Cubs posted 17 runs. The first eight of that was in a competitive game against a guy who will probably start playoff games. On Monday, Clay Holmes shoved. The Cubs got good starting pitching. That pitching stifled the Brewer offense. And it got lopsided so the Cubs didn’t have to use their leverage guys. On Tuesday, Matthew Boyd was up and down. His line wasn’t great at the end of the day. Also, that game was 3-1 Cubs after four. Now that pitcher probably throws long relief for the Brewers in the postseason. So not HUGE. But there were positives in that loss. On Wednesday? They hung the worst start of the year on the Miz. Of course, for the second straight day, their pitching staff just gave it all away.
For three days, the Cubs offense showed it could score runs against the vaunted Brewers starters. Check. Now Kevin Gausman, the other big trade deadline addition, you know, the one with World Series experience, finished this series. He finished the series with an exclamation point. Seven innings of one run ball. Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. Nine strikeouts against a contact oriented team. Yes, please. More of that. And then the Ryans, Zeferjahn and Rollison came in and closed the door.
The Brewers split the series and that’s a win for them. But there were silver linings. Survive the back six of this 13 straight, then lock down the top Wild Card spot in the sprint to the finish. Take care of business against a Marlins team that is fighting to stay alive. It feels like we always catch them when they are playing with extra motivation. Oh yeah, now that we got this 2-1 win in the bag, feel free to get another blow-out win over the weekend. I’m sure after three days of fighting for inches that a good old fashioned clobbering would feel excellent. Though I’ll still be back here hoping there’s another 3-2 or 2-1 win in there.
Holmes and Gausman and throw a roster full of relievers at them. That can win a Wild Card round series. Hopefully Boyd and David Peterson can keep two other games close. You’re going to have all four of them on short leashes and that fleet of relievers. Also, don’t mess up. Get Javier Assad onto the playoff roster. I know what the metrics and your instincts tell you about him. I see it loud and clear. There’s going to be a game that’s skidding out sideways. Hand him the ball and turn him loose. Over and over again through his career he’s outproduced what your numbers and your instincts tell you to expect. If he fails? It was already skidding out, right?
Three Positives:
Kevin Gausman. The last time he threw seven innings and struck out nine or more batters was a complete-game shutout against the Astros last September. Everything the team needed, right when they needed it. I’ve seen him say he might retire. I respect a guy who doesn’t want to hang around, but I see a guy who can pitch at least one more year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong. We needed two runs to win and Pete gave them to us. “Perils” of playing on a strong offensive team, but I believe this to be the first time Pete has driven in all of the runs in a Cub win since May 1, 2024. He drove in the only run in a 1-0 win against the Mets in New York. One more iconic achievement in his season. His next iconic moment should be his 40th homer.
Ryan Zeferjahn. It says a lot about the start to his Cubs career that I was much more comfortable with Ryan Rolison of the two late relievers. But Zeferjahn has struggled more AND got to face the three most dangerous Brewer hitters and got them all. Rolison had a save before, we remain at 13 different Cubs with a save. But Zeferjahn is a candidate for No. 14. Justin Steele or Edward Cabrera are other off the wall options now entering the radar. Or Shelby Miller. Another pickup that was laughed at when it was made.
Game 141, September 3: Cubs 2, Brewers 1 (79-62)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Kevin Gausman (.362). 7 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, BB, R, 9 K (W 4-1)
Hero: Ryan Rolison (.166). IP, 3 BF (Sv 2)
Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong/Ryan Zeferjahn. (.123). PCA: 1-4, HR, R, 2RBI. Zeferjahn: IP, 0 R, K.
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.074). 0-3
Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.058). 0-3
Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.043). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s third inning two-run homer with one out for the game’s first two runs. (.200)
Brewers Play of the Game: Andrew Vaughn’s solo homer with two outs in the fourth cut it to one. (.105)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 140 Winner: Alex Bregman received 50 of 54 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Alex Bregman +27
Pete Crow-Armstrong +26
Ben Brown +13.5
Javier Assad +12
Carson Kelly +10.
Edward Cabrera -12.5
Jameson Taillon -13
Nico Hoerner -15
Dansby Swanson -17
Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers lost (8 up on Cubs). Everyone else except the Dodgers was off. So the Cubs gain half a game on everyone while they all get to rest. Hopefully a lot of them lose when the Cubs get their reciprocal day off because they had the same number of games played as just everyone. Now they’ve played one more than many teams. The Dodgers were losing early in the late game, staring down a potential sweep by the Cardinals. The Dodgers have a soft September schedule, but aren’t a lot more likely than the Cubs to catch the Brewers. The Braves are a bit of a toss up. The permutation you want is one where the Dodgers are the first Brewer opponent. Then you only have to beat one of them to get to the Series. Beating one is a monumental task. Beating both of them would probably take a miracle.
Up Next: The Cubs travel to Miami. The Marlins are 71-70 and actually only three back of the Wild Card.
I’ve not seen anything to suggest that Shōta Imanaga (8-10, 4.01) won’t be taking his turn in Miami. The numbers still don’t look as bad as it has felt, with 2-2 and a 4.33 over his last seven. Last time out, he allowed six runs in five innings of work while losing to the Reds. Miami should be a decent place to start for him.
The Marlins start 30-year-old righty Janson Junk (6-8. 4.11). Junk is 2-2 with a 2.15 over his last seven appearances, which includes one turn out of the bullpen. He’s thrown six innings once since the start of August, in a start against the Pirates. That was also his last win, back on August 12. He was a Brewers reliever in May of 2024 when he last pitched against the Cubs.
The Marlins are 10th in team OPS, making them a really far below the radar top third offensive team (by at least one metric). They are also 11th in team ERA. That’s a really narrow basket of stats, but suggests they should be a bit better than their record probably. The Marlins bullpen is 14th in ERA (two spots behind the vaunted Cub bullpen). Their bullpen is sixth in WHIP. So you’re not going to just roll them late. This is a solid, if unspectacular team and will be a good challenge this weekend.
Fangraphs has the Cubs with an edge in all three games this weekend, with the Friday one being by an eyelash and the Saturday one topping out at 55.7 percent. For what it is worth, FG had the Cubs winning this Thursday game against the Brewers. It most definitely does not like the Cubs at any point in the Milwaukee series ahead. But have to take care of business here and then try to slay some dragons.
Jac Caglianone and Noah Cameron just became the first pair of Royals teammates to win AL monthly awards in the same month since 1985, and Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco give the milestone its full due even as the season around it has slipped back into disappointment. Cameron’s August was more than enough to earn Pitcher of the Month honors despite modest strikeout totals, while Caglianone led the AL in batting average, slugging, OPS, and RBI in a breakout that now feels like genuine league-wide recognition rather than a stats-driven argument.
The September call-ups told a different story. Nolan Hoffman, Easton McGee, and Drew Waters headline a group that left both hosts underwhelmed, and the conversation turns to whether the front office should have used this stretch to evaluate younger players like Gavin Cross or Carson Roccaforte instead. The Royals’ fading playoff odds add an edge to the discussion, particularly as broadcast optimism around the team’s chances has started to feel out of step with reality.
Cameron’s rougher outing against Miami still showed signs of progress rather than regression, even as the Marlins series brought its share of chaos, including a balk reversal and Matt Quatraro’s animated ejection that left the broadcast crew disagreeing about what actually happened. Seth Lugo’s future and the uncomfortable reality of needing multiple new starters heading into 2026 round out the pitching conversation.
The broader baseball landscape gets attention too. MLB’s proposed free agency changes and the meaningful difference between a delay and a full transaction freeze draw real concern, while Arte Moreno’s sale of the Angels reopens the conversation about team value, spending, and Royals ownership specifically. Joe Sheehan’s sharp criticism of John Sherman gets a direct read, and Jacob and Jeremy float their own creative fix for position players pitching, proposing an emergency pitcher spot filled by an undrafted college player or a retired arm.
Similarly, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has had plenty of peaks and valleys this season, his 3.89 xERA and 3.82 xFIP across his past 11 starts also reinforce the edge on the mound.
In addition to the highlighted offensive struggles of the Marlins, they’ve played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI).
This is also a potential letdown spot for the Cubs.
Chicago just split a key, four-game divisional series with the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Cubbies were held to just 11 runs over the final three games of the set.
Cubs vs Marlins home run prediction: Michael Busch (15%)
There’s been a considerable dip in Cubs first baseman Michael Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026.
So, with Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 52-23, 31.2 units
Over/Under bets: 25-22, +1.63 units
Cubs vs Marlins market trends
Smart traders at Polymarket are leaning rather heavily to the visitors in tonight's Cubs vs. Marlins matchup. All of the action is backing the favorite, as of 4 p.m. ET.
Cubs vs Marlins weather
The retractable roof at loanDepot Park is expected to be closed for tonight’s game, but the official decision won’t be announced until a few hours before the game on the @loanDepotpark X feed.
Cubs vs Marlins odds
Moneyline: Cubs 60% | Marlins 43.5%
Run line: Cubs -1.5 (47.6%) | Marlins +1.5 (56.5%)
Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.4%)
Cubs vs Marlins trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Marlins.
How to watch Cubs vs Marlins and game info
Location
loanDepot Park, Miami, Fla.
Date
Friday, Sept. 4, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
Marquee, Marlins.TV
Cubs starting pitcher
Shota Imanaga (8-10, 4.01 ERA)
Marlins starting pitcher
Janson Junk (6-8, 4.11 ERA)
Cubs vs Marlins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Simmons stepped away from the NBA last season and purchased a controlling share in the South Florida Sails Angling Club, which is a part of the Sport Fishing Championship.
Simmons, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, flamed out with the 76ers and Nets while dealing with a number of injuries and mental hurdles.
Ben Simmons signs with the Kings. Noah K. Murray-NY Post
The 30-year-old played played 18 games with the Clippers at the end of the 2024-’25 season, averaging three points, four rebounds and three assists per game in a limited bench role.
Simmons now adds a veteran presence to a rebuilding Kings team that went 22-60 last season and drafted Darius Acuff Jr. out of Arkansas with the No. 7 pick in the draft.
It will be interesting to see if a year away from the sport will help Simmons the shooting issues that plagued him in his career — often seeming unwilling to shoot anything beyond a layup.
He certainly seemed to enjoy his time fishihing.
“It’s a very niche sport,” he told Andscape. “And if you don’t know, you don’t know. But once you experience it and get out there and see what it’s about, you’re kind of in awe of what the sport is. And that’s just something I’ve always been interested in in terms of the sport of fishing.
“The technique. And there’s so much to it that people just don’t understand. These guys are fishing on million-dollar vessels, and they’re out for days at a time. So, it’s tedious and gritty, but a lot of fun. It’s one of those worlds where you just got to kind of experience it, get into it and see what it’s about.”
Mike Hesson had only been in the UK to meet the king
Interim picks up the pieces after seven players sent home
Mike Hesson was only in the UK this week to meet King Charles. But now the New Zealander finds himself interim head coach of a Pakistan Test side that have sent seven players and his predecessor home. As Hesson put it after his first net session: “The guys are probably more used to a little bit of chaos than I am.”
Even by Pakistan’s standards, this past week has been more than a little chaotic, with their somewhat nuclear response to going 2-0 down to England the talk of the sport. Hesson, previously Pakistan’s white-ball coach, has been parachuted in to restore some pride in the third Test at Edgbaston that starts next week.
Sacramento was looking for a veteran point guard to back up and mentor rookie Darius Acuff. They have their guy, and it's an eyebrow-raising choice:
Ben Simmons.
Simmons agreed to a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Kings, which is the veteran minimum, reports Shams Charania of ESPN. It's not yet clear whether this contract is fully guaranteed.
Simmons, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft by the Philadelphia 76ers and a three-time All-Star, did not play in the NBA last season — he was focused more on deep sea fishing, even buying a controlling stake in the South Florida Sails of the Sport Fishing Championship. He went through a mini-camp with the Austrailian national team this summer, and while he looked good in social media workouts that is almost an annual tradition with him that has had little bearing on the regular season.
Simmons last played in the NBA in the 2024-25 season, splitting time between the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippers. In 18 games with the Clippers, he played solid defense and showed he could run the offense for a stretch, even if he didn't put up counting stats of note (2.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in 16.4 minutes per game) or score much from outside the paint. He was not part of Tyronn Lue's playoff rotation, but he looked like he might be a decent veteran backup point guard.
Which is what the Kings were looking for. Sacramento also is betting on Simmons staying healthy. Simmons has dealt with back issues since the 2021-22 season, missed considerable time because of it, and has undergone a couple of surgeries to help relieve the issue. He was largely healthy with the Nets and Clippers a couple of seasons ago.
Sacramento had talked to Russell Westbrook about returning in a backup role, but he chose to retire instead. The Kings also had conversations with Victor Oladipo, and there are veteran point guards available, such as Gabe Vincent and Cameron Payne.
The Kings have decided to go with Simmons. It's an interesting choice, and not necessarily a bad one.
Keider Montero has absolutely dominated the Cleveland Guardians over the course of his career, so I'm rocking with him as part of my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions.
The Detroit Tigers are a live underdog today at Polymarket, trading at 45 cents - we can't pass up that type of value.
Across 73 plate appearances (we love to see this type of sample size), he's limited Cleveland to a .169 xBA and .223 xwOBA. That'll play.
On the other side, the Tigers have beat up on Logan Allen, owning a .355 average in 38 plate appearances. This includes a 5-for-8 mark from Spencer Torkelson. If Detroit is scoring, he's probably at the center of it today.
COVERS INTEL: Keider Montero is generating weak contact at the highest rate of his career (5.8%), which should put us in a good spot to cash this underdog play against a contact-first team like the Guardians.
Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)
Not only is Montero having one of the best years of his career and is in a great matchup against Cleveland, but the trends are on our side, too. The Under is 7-0 in Montero's last seven starts as a road underdog, and you shouldn't expect Cleveland to smudge that perfect mark, either.
It helps us here that the Guardians are the worst-hitting team with runners in scoring position in the big leagues, owning just a .682 OPS in that situation this season.
All the numbers point toward the Under here - I'd play this up to 58 cents.
Dustin Saracini's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 8-11, -1.75 units
Over/Under bets: 9-10, -1.32 units
Tigers vs Guardians weather
We do have a risk of thunderstorms tonight in Cleveland, with temperatures at 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Watch out for a potential delay before first pitch.
Tigers vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: Tigers 45% | Guardians 56%
Run line: Tigers +1.5 (62%) | Guardians -1.5 (39%)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Tigers vs Guardians trend
The Under is 5-0 in Allen's last five starts vs. the American League Central. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Date
Friday, September 4, 2026
First pitch
2:10 p.m. ET
TV
MLB.tv
Tigers starting pitcher
Keider Montero (3.24 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Logan Allen (3.77 ERA)
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 03: Zach Cole #16 of the Houston Astros scores on a wild pitch in the eighth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Daikin Park on June 03, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.
AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (69-65) won 11-4 (BOX SCORE)
Sugar Land got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Salazar RBI double. Alexander got the start and went 5 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned, with 7 strikeouts. The offense rallied for 5 runs in the bottom of the third inning on a Cole 2 run home run, Dezenzo walk and Salazar 2 run single. The offense added 4 more runs in the 7th to extend the lead. The pen allowed a couple of runs but held on as Sugar Land won 11-4.
AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-70) lost 14-1 (BOX SCORE)
Tredwell started for the Hooks but struggled allowing 8 runs on 7 walks while retiring just three batters, despite not allowing a hit. The Hooks got a run in the 6th on a Janek sac fly but the pen allowed a few more runs and they eventually went to position players pitching. The Hooks ended up dropping this one 14-1.
A+: Asheville Tourists (42-86) lost 6-5 (BOX SCORE)
Asheville got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on a Powell 2 run single. Shoemaker got the start for Asheville and went 5 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned. The offense got a run back in the third on a Vasquez sac fly. They picked up another run in the 5th on a Monistere sac fly. Saunier pitched in relief but allowed 3 runs in the 8th as the Grasshoppers took the lead. Asheville got one back in the bottom of the inning on a Fielder groundout. The offense was unable to rally in the 9th as Asheville fell 6-5.
Brandon Nigh, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-56) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)
The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 5th inning on a Ramirez RBI single. Verdugo got the start and was pitching well but with 2 outs in the 5th, he allowed 3 runs. He finished allowing those 3 runs over 4.2 innings. The offense got a run back in the 8th inning on a Hughes solo home run. The offense was unable to rally in the 9th as the Woodpeckers fell 3-2.
COVERS INTEL:Lowder ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA, making him unlikely to hold up against an elite Brewers offense.
