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Ryan Clifford, a North Carolina native, attended high school at Leesville Road High School, a public school in Raleigh for his freshman and sophomore seasons. It quickly became apparent that he was a big fish in a small pond, as he posted a .526 with 4 home runs over 21 games in his freshman year, and hit .692 with 3 home runs over 4 games in his sophomore year, winning the 2020 Gatorade Player of the Year (North Carolina) Award for the COVID-shortened season in the process.

With his talent undeniable, Clifford and his family made the decision to have him leave Leesville Road High School and enroll him at the Pro5 Baseball Academy, a nearby baseball development program working in conjunction with Crossroads Flex High School to give students an elite, all-inclusive, year-round baseball development program while meeting state academic benchmarks. There, Clifford would be able to get year-round training and exposure in preparation for a professional baseball career. Over the next two years, his profile would rise and his name would commonly be bandied about by scouts and evaluators for his performance at workouts and in exhibition games across the showcase circuit.

Clifford was considered one of the better high school bats in the 2022 draft class, but due to a handful of circumstances, his name fell down most draft boards. A strong commitment to Vanderbilt University scared off most teams, but beyond that, Clifford’s less-impressive-than-expected numbers during his junior and senior seasons prompted many teams to pass on him. The Mets were one such team, high on Clifford and considering drafting him thanks to possessing the 11th and 14th overall selections in the 2022 MLB Draft but ultimately passing after not being able to make the financials work with the rest of the players Tommy Tanous and Mark Tramuta intended on selecting.

After not hearing his name called over the first ten rounds of the draft, Clifford was finally selected in the 11th round by the Houston Astros, the 343rd overall selection made. Astros scouting director Kriss Gross was initially unsure if the team would be able to find the financial flexibility to sign Clifford, but ultimately was able to make it work, buying him out of his commitment to Vanderbilt for a $1,256,530 signing bonus, roughly the equivalent of a second-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft.

Clifford made his professional debut later that summer with the FCL Astros Orange, the Astros’ Florida Complex League team. Appearing in 13 games, he went 8-36 with 3 doubles, 1 home run, 2 stolen bases, and 12 walks to 16 strikeouts, a .222/.440/.389 batting line. He was promoted to the Single-A Fayette Woodpeckers and finished out the season going 11-41 with them with 2 doubles, 1 home run, and 10 walks to 15 strikeouts, a .268/.412/.390 batting line. All in all, his professional debut went well, as he hit .247/.426/.390 with 5 doubles, 2 home runs, 2 stolen bases, and 22 walks to 31 strikeouts in 25 combined games.

He began the 2023 season with the Woodpeckers and got off to a hot start, hitting .337/.488/.457 in 25 games with 5 doubles, 2 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and 25 walks to 27 strikeouts. He was promoted to the High-A Ashville Tourists in mid-May and was even more impressive there, hitting .271/.356/.547 in 58 games with 11 doubles, 16 home runs, 1 stolen base, and 21 walks to 61 strikeouts.

On August 1st, the Mets traded Justin Verlander to Houston and received Clifford and Drew Gilbert in return. Clifford was assigned to the Brooklyn Cyclones and finished out the rest of the season there, hitting .188/.307/.376 in 32 games with 4 doubles, 6 home runs, 1 stolen base, and 18 walks to 51 strikeouts. All in all, with all three teams, he hit .262/.374/.480 with 20 doubles, 24 home runs, 5 stolen bases in 7 attempts, and 64 walks to 140 strikeouts.

Clifford returned to the Cyclones to start the 2024 season, and while the numbers did not exactly jump off the pages, he was solidly above-average in the 31 games he played there. The 20-year-old hit .216/.412/.304 with 6 doubles and 1 home run, his power numbers suffering but his walk rate benefitting from a weak Brooklyn Cyclones lineup that made it easy to pitch around the young slugger. When he was promoted to the Binghamton Rumble Ponies in mid-May, Clifford began showing off the plus power that makes him so dangerous as a hitter and capable of carrying an entire team for days at a time. Appearing in 98 games, Clifford hit .231/.359/.457 with 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and 63 walks to 117 strikeouts. On the whole, he hit a combined .228/.372/.432 in 129 games on the season with 27 doubles, 19 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and 95 walks to 160 strikeouts. His walk total led the Mets’ minor league system, while his home run and strikeout total both placed him in third.

The Mets had the 21-year-old remain in Binghamton to start the 2025 season, and he ended up playing the majority of the year there, suiting up for 105 games with the Rumble Ponies. Clifford hit .243/.355/.493 with 18 doubles, 1 triple, 24 home runs, 4 stolen bases in 6 attempts, and 63 walks to 113 strikeouts. In mid-August, the team promoted the slugger to Triple-A Syracuse, and he finished the season there, appearing in 34 games and hitting .219/.359/.395 with 5 doubles, 5 home runs, 3 stolen bases in 5 attempts, and 22 walks to 35 strikeouts. Overall, Clifford hit a combined .237/.356/.470 in 2025 with 23 doubles, 1 triple, 29 home runs, 7 stolen bases in 11 attempts, and drew 85 walks to 148 strikeouts. His 29 homers led the Mets minor league system, and his 85 walks led the system for a second-consecutive year.

The 6’3”, 200-pound left-hander stands tall at the plate, standing slightly open and holding his hands high with the bat head angled at 10:00. He swings with a slight kick/toe tap without much of a load or weight transfer. His left-handed stroke is smooth, efficient, and quick, producing light tower power, but it is also long and uppercutty, making him vulnerable to pitches in the upper half of the zone- though he may have made some mechanical adjustments to make himself more effective upstairs, as he hit .241/.477/.586 against pitches up in the zone in his 34 game sample size with Syracuse, where statcast data is publicly available.

Clifford boasts plus-plus raw power and is able to manifest much of that in-game, averaging a 93.6 MPH exit velocity on balls he put in play in Syracuse as per publicly available statcast data, but the swing-and-miss issues will make it difficult to fully tap into that power in-game consistently. Against fastballs, Clifford hit .410/.400/.667 with a 22% whiff rate and an average exit velocity of 96 MPH. Against breaking balls, he hit .231/.222/.577 with a 35.2% whiff rate and an average exit velocity of 90 MPH. Against off-speed pitches, he hit .214/.214/.286 with a 32.6% whiff rate and an average exit velocity of 93.9 MPH.

Clifford has an advanced approach at the plate and makes smart swing decisions, but he sometimes plays himself into poor counts by being too passive at the plate, waiting for pitchers to make mistakes instead of making contact with anything he thinks he can and letting his strength and power take over. Finding himself behind in the count, Clifford’s chase rate is virtually double in such two-strike situations, as opposed to when he is a more favorable counts.

After showing reverse platoon splits and struggling a bit against right-handed pitchers in 2024, hitting .216/.363/.415 against them as compared to the .290/.424/.449 he hit against left-handed pitchers, Clifford’s splits reversed in 2025. He hit an improved .247/.379/.497 against right-handers in 2025 but hit .204/.273/.381 against fellow left-handers.

Not much changed in Clifford’s batted ball profile. He pulled the ball at a 43.9% rate, went back up the middle at a 23.7% rate, and went to the opposite field at a 32.3% rate, all numbers comparable to his 2024 season. Likewise, his 21.3% line drive rate, 38.6% groundball rate, and 40.1% flyball rate were comparable to his 2024 season as well. The one area of noticeable improvement was the damage that was done when he hit the ball in the air. Clifford’s infield flyball rate dropped from 24.0% in 2024 to 19.4% this past season, and his HR/FB ratio increased from 15.7% in 2024 to 21.6% in 2025.

Defensively, Clifford provides little value at any of the positions that he plays. He played first base, left field, and right field in 2025, as well as DH, with the majority of his playing time coming at first base. At first, he is a sub-optimal fielder who will generally make the routine plays but will not do much more than that thanks to a lack of quick-twitch athleticism. In the outfield, he is also a net neutral fielder at best, with his above-average arm an asset, but his lack of athleticism and range a disadvantage. With more time in the outfield, his defense may improve in terms of his read of the ball off the bat, or the routes he takes may become more efficient. But with fringy speed to begin with, losing speed as he ages and matures may counter any experienced-based improvements.

In this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, Jacob Milham and Jeremy “Hokius” Greco take stock of the Kansas City Royals while balancing baseball discussion with the reality of current events and the importance of community support. The hosts dive into the MLB Top 100 player and prospect lists, breaking down where key Royals stand, what Bobby Witt Jr.’s national recognition means for the franchise, and how injuries can reshape expectations heading into the season.

The conversation also explores the Royals’ prospect pipeline, player development trends, and potential roster moves still to come before Opening Day. Along the way, Jacob and Jeremy tackle the complicated Hall of Fame case for Carlos Beltrán, discussing how legacy, performance, and controversy intersect in Cooperstown voting. With thoughtful analysis and grounded optimism, the episode offers Royals fans perspective, context, and a clear-eyed look at what lies ahead.

Email Jacob directly at: jm17971047@gmail.com

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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The MacKenzie Gore trade made it abundantly clear that Paul Toboni is thinking about the long game. It is not just that Toboni traded Gore that has me thinking this. The prospect package he chose is full of high upside players that are multiple years from the MLB. Four of the five pieces in the deal have no chance of making the big leagues in 2026.

This does not bother Toboni because he is thinking more about building the 2028 Nationals than the 2026 Nats. All of Toboni’s actions suggest he does not believe this team has a prayer in 2026. It may be a harsh reality to accept, but he is correct. Even with heavier spending, this team would not be able to pass the Phillies, Mets or Braves in 2026.

Instead, Toboni is trying to build a team that can compete in the NL East at the end of this decade and entering the 2030’s. There are plenty of reasons to do this. With a lockout looming, the 2027 season is in a state of limbo. The Phillies, who have won the division the last two years are an aging team with only a couple years left in their competitive window.

When 2028 hits, the Nats should be ready to strike. Young big league pieces like James Wood, Daylen Lile and Dylan Crews would be truly entering their prime at that time. The Nats would also have a ton of reinforcements making it to the MLB at that point, especially on the infield. This organization has an embarrassment of riches on the infield in A ball. You would have to imagine that some of these players will really break out.

The Nationals have a ridiculous amount of talent in the lower levels on the minor leagues, especially on the infield. Willits, Fien, Fitz-Gerald, Coy James, Marconi German, Luke Dickerson, Angel Feliz and Ronny Cruz are all infielders who are 20 or younger

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) January 23, 2026

There is no guarantee that CJ Abrams will be on the 2028 Nats, but Eli Willits should be on his way to take the shortstop job at that point. Gavin Fien, Devin Fitz-Gerald, Marconi German and others will also be charging towards their big league debuts. This has the chance to be reminiscent of those Orioles teams that seemed to have a new top 100 prospect debuting every week.

All of this sounds great on paper, but it is really frustrating for Nationals fans. We have been rebuilding for a long time now and this new guy is coming in asking for even more patience. It is tough for Nats fans and Toboni knows it. After the trade, Toboni talked about how tough it was to root for struggling Giants teams growing up and empathized with the fans. However, he made it clear that he thought these long term focused moves were what was best for the franchise.

Paul Toboni's message to Nats fans who have expressed frustration after another star-caliber player – and one of the main pieces from the Juan Soto trade – has been dealt away: pic.twitter.com/GfqNhNvTG0

— Bobby Blanco (@Bobby_Blanco) January 22, 2026

Back when Mike Rizzo was running the show, the Nats always felt like they were building towards 2026. Now, we are back to square one. That is not Paul Toboni’s fault though. It is not his responsibility to fix Mike Rizzo’s broken rebuild. His job is to build the team in his own image, something Barry Svrluga noted on the radio.

Is the Nats' rebuild more pain now for a sweeter moment later? That's Paul Toboni's idea, as Barry Svrluga elaborates. pic.twitter.com/sLjFb6ekmM

— 106.7 The Fan (@1067theFan) January 23, 2026

After losing 96 games last year, it was impossible to deny the rebuild was not trending in the right direction. Toboni has pointed that out on a number of occasions. He said that while it is not impossible to turn things around in one year, it is tough and that last season was a reality check.

With that in mind, Toboni does not feel like it is in the team’s best interest to build for 2026. Based on his actions, Toboni wants to use this year to evaluate what he has on the roster and go from there. There are a ton of unproven players with upside on this roster and Toboni wants to see who emerges from the pack.

This approach is probably going to lead to a lot of losses, but it is shrewd. If you want to see winning baseball in the Nats organization next year, the MLB team is not going to be the place to look. I think the minor league teams will take a major jump next year. That is where you will see what Toboni is building towards.

He is not going to neglect the MLB team entirely though. However, the goal of 2026 is more about individual progress than competing for a playoff spot. If James Wood, Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews, Cade Cavalli and Brady House make progress in their development, but the team wins 70 games, that is a successful season, at least in my books. I have a feeling Toboni would agree with me as well.

The wins will be taking place on the development side. Toboni’s Project 2028 will be a slower burn, but one that I believe will have steady progress. It is tough to talk about the 2027 season because of all the uncertainty. Right now, we are not even sure if there will be a season at all. The CBA expires and all the signs point to an all out war in the next negotiations.

I really hope the whole season is not wiped out because that would push back some of the Nats plans. The development of the Nats minor leaguers could be harmed by this strike. Minor Leaguers not on the 40-man roster would be able to play, but I imagine things would not be normal.

With all the young talent entering the Nats organization, I really do believe that this team will be good again. If the Lerner’s open up their checkbook eventually, this team could be great.

This version of the rebuild feels different to me. The people running the show have a much better understanding of the modern game. Mike Rizzo is a Nationals legend, but it did really seem like the game passed him by at the end. Meanwhile, Toboni is a young up and comer who is on the cutting edge.

It's early, but if I'm a Nationals fan, I'm excited about the tangible shift in the org led by Paul Toboni. The amount of upside acquired in these deals is eye-popping, even with creative smaller moves to complement and a total overhaul in scouting, PD and general approach.

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) January 22, 2026

Nats fans, this year is going to suck at the MLB level, let’s not sugarcoat it. While the lineup has the potential to be solid, this pitching staff is a barren wasteland. A few of these players could surprise us, but on paper this pitching staff is really bad. 

With Luis Perales, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora and others in the pipeline, there will be reinforcements. However, those reinforcements are probably not coming in 2026. When this team becomes competitive again, I have a feeling they will need to make an aggressive move for pitching in the free agent market. I do not have much faith that ownership will pull the trigger, but we can cross that bridge when we get there.

For now, Nats fans will have to take victories when they get them. In this new regime, I do think we will see more prospects break out and excite us. This should be a year of progress, even if it does not come in the standings.

Paul Toboni is not too worried about the MLB standings this year. To be frank, his goal is not to win the World Series in 2026, or even make the playoffs. His goal is to create Project 2028. If his plan works out, the Nationals should be ready to make a splash by 2028. As we enter the 2030’s, the Nationals should be a young and hungry team competing for championships. We are a long way away, but for the first time in a while, I truly trust the process. 

The number six prospect, according to you, in the team’s system is another in their quest to not have a baseball drop in the outfield once it is hit the air. Unfortunately, this one may not be a starter.

Dante Nori – 74
Francisco Renteria – 47
Gabriel Rincones – 26
Matthew Fisher – 7
Moises Chace – 15
Cade Obermueller – 3

I’m still not sure what to make of Nori. There was some clear improvement on his part last year, but the profile still isn’t one that will get anyone all that excited. There is almost no power and the whole thing depends on if he can hit major league pitching. That is true of any prospect, but with Nori, his lack of being able to impact a baseball with much authority is going to be something that keeps him pegged down any prospect list.

2025 stats (w/ Clearwater, Lakewood and Reading)

577 PA, .261/.361/.372, 72 R, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 52 SB, 13.0 BB%, 14.7 K%, 109 wRC+

Baseball Prospectus scouting report ($)

It was a relatively successful first full pro campaign at first glance, as he was an above-average hitter for the bulk of the season at Low-A and matriculated up to Double-A by September (albeit in the “this might screw with another team’s model” way more than on merit; Escobar also got one of these promotions if you’re tracking who they might be preparing to flip this offseason). His stabs at the plate tend to sell out for contact, and he did post an in-zone contact rate slightly above 90 percent in the FSL, which was enough to carry a nice batting average. But he simply does not seek to do or effectuate much damage (100.5 mph EV90 and five percent pulled fly-ball rate) and he’s simply not some sort of Luis Arraez or Jacob Wilson-level bat manipulator, to where his contact ability is so good it will carry an entire offensive profile.

With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.

Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!

Keith Law of The Athletic published his Top 100 prospects list for the 2026 season, and a pair ofYankees made the cut.

-- SS George Lombard Jr., No. 24

-- RHP Carlos Lagrange, No. 88

Here’s Law on Lombard:

If he’d spent half the year in High A instead of four weeks, his year would probably look more promising on the surface, and since he won’t turn 21 until June he has time to return to Double A and show he can handle the pitching there. He’s at least a future everyday shortstop and still has upside beyond that because of the potential for a plus hit tool.

And on Lagrange:

The Dellin Betances comps are inevitable here, but Lagrange moves better on the mound and has more weapons already. He should stick as a starter, and could end up in the top two spots in a rotation depending on how far his control improves.

Lombard was ranked No. 46 by Baseball America and No. 32 by MLB Pipeline. He still has some refining to do, as he struggled during his brief taste of Double-A. The former first-round pick hit .215 with 124 strikeouts in 108 games.

Lagrange, a big-bodied starter at 6-foot-7, pitched to a 3.22 ERA for Double-A Somerset in 2025, appearing in 15 games. There’s a chance he begins 2026 at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and he could potentially make an impact in the majors this season. 

There is latent hope in just about every baseball prospect. Prospect, by definition, implies a good bit of promise and a lot of expectation with variability.

With Arnaldo Lantigua, though, there’s an added bit of prospect pressure. Acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was dealt to the Cincinnati Reds for an amount of international bonus pool cash that was directly used by the Trolleys to sign Roki Sasaki out of Japan, meaning the Reds – with Lantigua now in-tow – directly financed their rivals adding a potential star.

Lantigua, to his credit, has hit the ground running since joining the Reds organization despite the otherwise outsized expectations. In Arizona Complex League play in 2025 he swatted 10 homers in just 49 games – a mark that tied him with Dario Reynoso from the Giants organization for most in the league – and he slugged .445 with a .763 OPS in 129 PA after being promoted to Class-A Daytona in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

For reference, the likes of Tyson Lewis (.417 SLG) and Sammy Stafura (.410) were his teammates in Daytona, and Arnaldo just turned 20 years old in December.

There’s a whole lot of power in Lantigua’s bat, and there’s a whole lot to like about his power potential. That makes for quite the intriguing prospect, one you collectively ranked 10th in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings over the weekend!

The Dodgers’ $240-million signing of Kyle Tucker revived anguished cries that the team is ruining baseball. It also revived a strange chapter in team history, with frenzied online commentary that the signing of Tucker was made possible in large part because Major League Baseball long ago rewarded the Dodgers’ owners with preferential financial treatment that continues to this day.

Is that true?

Yes and no.

Uh, thanks. Go on.

Remember Frank McCourt, the Dodgers’ former owner?

Read more:Shaikin: Kyle Tucker is really going to trigger a lockout? Come on now

In 2011, after then-Commissioner Bud Selig rejected a proposed $3-billion local television deal between the Dodgers and Fox Sports, McCourt took the team into bankruptcy court before agreeing to sell. That meant Selig and the MLB owners would not pick the new Dodgers owner. McCourt would, in a process controlled by the court.

With the Dodgers’ local TV rights soon to expire, McCourt realized bidders for the team might offer more — and he might make more — if the bidders knew in advance how much the league would take from the sale of those rights.

In a settlement with McCourt — and to avoid the risk of the judge imposing a deal less favorable to the league — MLB agreed the fair-market value of a Dodgers TV deal would be based on the very Fox deal that Selig had rejected.

Why did that matter?

That value was $84 million for the first year and would increase thereafter, with the league taking its standard 34% cut and sharing that among all its teams.

However, with a bidding war looming between Fox Sports and Time Warner Cable, Selig knew the rights would be worth more than Fox had offered in its extension with McCourt, who needed immediate cash.

In bankruptcy court, an attorney for Guggenheim, the winning bidder and still the Dodgers’ owner, said the settlement represented a “substantial component of the value proposition of the transaction” — that is, a primary justification for the then-record $2.15-billion purchase price.

In 2013, one year after buying the team, Guggenheim sold those local TV rights. Were they indeed worth more?

You might as well ask if Shohei Ohtani is good. The rights that McCourt wanted to sell for $3 billion were bought by Time Warner Cable for a record $8.35 billion.

Because of the settlement, the league would take its cut based on a deal worth $3 billion rather than based on a deal worth $8.35 billion.

And the league was fine with this, because it wanted to help a marquee franchise return to glory?

LOL, no. In 2012, an MLB attorney had warned the court that the settlement could result in a league of “the Dodgers and the other 29 teams.” Under its terms, the Dodgers could keep tens of millions of dollars each year that otherwise would be shared with the league.

In the wake of the massive Time Warner deal, Selig’s office told other owners it planned to treat television revenue for the Dodgers like television revenue from any other team.

Read more:One last roundup for Clayton Kershaw: He'll pitch in World Baseball Classic

However, thanks to McCourt, the bankruptcy court was in charge, not the league. MLB did not have the power to redo the court-approved settlement, because Guggenheim could have asked the court to uphold the deal and order the league to abide by it.

After negotiations, MLB and Guggenheim made a modest adjustment, setting the “fair-market value” of the Time Warner deal at about $130 million for the first year rather than $84 million. That figure is used to determine the league’s cut, which for all local TV deals has since increased from 34% to 48%.

Just about every report on the Dodgers’ TV deal says the team is guaranteed $334 million each year. Is that accurate?

That $334 million is the annual average. The deal started at a lower value and increases every year.

By the time the deal ends in 2038, the Dodgers will be getting more than $500 million per year.

How is that possible? Aren’t local sports channels dying?

The parent company of the FanDuel Sports channels — including the one that carries the Angels — emerged from bankruptcy last year but now is fighting to remain in business. If your company spends millions upon millions on sports rights, and if your financial success depends on cable and satellite customers paying for a programming bundle that includes sports channels most viewers do not watch, you’re doomed.

The Angels’ local television revenue took a big hit last year and probably will do so again this year. The Milwaukee Brewers, the team that plays in the smallest market in the majors, reportedly got $35 million in its FanDuel deal last year.

The Dodgers own SportsNet LA through a related entity, American Media Productions (AMP), and the television revenue comes via a marketing and distribution agreement with Charter Communications, which inherited the deal when it acquired Time Warner Cable in 2016.

Charter’s revenue in 2024: $55 billion. The giant television, telephone and broadband company is not going out of business anytime soon, even as it is stuck with a money-losing Dodgers deal.

What did Dodgers chairman Mark Walter say upon the establishment of SportsNet LA?

“The creation of AMP will provide substantial financial resources over the coming years for the Dodgers to build on their storied legacy and bring a world championship home to Los Angeles.”

Read more:Shaikin: Make starting pitchers great again? MLB isn't. This independent league will try

Nailed it. So why would Walter consider forsaking some of those substantial financial resources?

In 2028, when MLB national TV contracts expire, Commissioner Rob Manfred would like to offer traditional networks and streaming services the chance to bid not just on national broadcasts but on an all-baseball, all-the-time outlet where fans could watch any team, wherever they lived, and with no blackouts. With that, the league believes, it could strike gold — and then share the wealth among all 30 teams.

That would require teams to turn over their local broadcast rights to the league. The Dodgers’ local television revenues provide a massive competitive advantage. It’s hard to imagine Walter (and owners of other big-city teams with similar TV riches) surrendering those riches without the league offering him something significant in return.

Like what?

Perhaps a chance to exempt the Dodgers from sharing ticket revenue, or to secure the Japanese television rights now controlled by MLB. Maybe the league would buy SportsNet LA. Could be anything. But that is a 2028 issue. First up is collective bargaining, and the possibility of owners shutting down the sport next winter in pursuit of a salary cap.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Ben Williamson doesn’t rush; he just moves quickly. The defensive standout’s quick feet and steady hands earned him a promotion to MLB after just 689 plate appearances in the minors, despite his college career coming in the decidedly mid CAA. And he spent most of the first two-thirds of the 2025 season as the Mariners’ starting third baseman, despite questions about his bat.

Yet by August 1, he was back in Triple-A. While he’d been showing improvements with the bat over the course of his rookie campaign, an Eugenio Suárez reunion was too tempting for the Mariners to upgrade Williamson’s .253/.294/.310 line.

But that batting line only tells part of the story. Williamson’s 2025 reveals a fascinating development puzzle: he improved his plate discipline and contact rates as the season progressed, yet his power indicators collapsed. And while it’s as if a light bulb clicked on when he got back to Tacoma—turning in a 135 wRC+ over the last two months in AAA—key questions lingered.

The May Baseline

We checked in on B Willy after his first month in the show, when his 63 wRC+ looked concerning but there were promising signs under the hood.

The clearest room for growth was in his approach. He chased at unacceptable rates, swinging at 22.3% of pitches in the chase zone and 42.6% of pitches that were in the shadow zone but not the strike zone. And he was simultaneously too passive on hitter’s pitches, swinging at just 64.8% of pitches in the heart of the plate, compared to the league average of 72.4%. He was going fishing while avoiding meatballs like it was a Friday during Lent. While he made enough contact to avoid a Kelenic-esque strikeout rate, his walk rate jumped off the page in a bad way: 3.1%.

But under the hood, his power indicators offered hope. His dynamic hard hit rate (DHH%) was above league average, suggesting big raw power even if it wasn’t always showing up in good contact. DHH% is the best indicator for young hitters because it shows power potential by measuring how hard a player hits the ball relative to launch angle: Despite being a worse result, an 80-mph pop up requires much more strength than an 80-mph line drive, so DHH% gives a player more credit for the pop-up. In addition, despite not swinging at the right pitches, he still managed a hard-hit rate and a barrel rate around league average. It suggested that if he could improve his swing decisions, the offense would pop.

As the season progressed, so did Williamson, but not always in the ways the early data suggested.

Improving at a Cost

From there, Williamson’s plate discipline improved—mostly. He showed real improvement in the shadow zone, learning to lay off borderline pitches, and his walk rate doubled while he cut down his strikeouts by a quarter. But he didn’t improve much on pitches even farther outside the zone, in the chase region.

Zone	Pre-5/15	Post-5/15	MLB Average
Chase	31.5%	32.2%	22.6%
Shaddow (balls only)	56.1%	37.8%	43.1%
Heart	64.8%	65.5%	72.4%

How could both be true? The League figured out how to attack him. He’d go fishing on changeups and sweepers about 25% more often than average. So pitchers peppered those pitches and knew they had a fat margin for error outside the zone.

This isn’t just a question of spin on the sweepers—he also struggled with sliders, but it wasn’t as pronounced. And his swing decisions and contact rates were actually better than the league against curveballs. Nor was it purely a question of timing—again, he was better against curveballs. Rather, what this suggests is a problem with horizontal movement. That’s what the changeup and sweeper have in common.

Making matters worse, the hope that he’d tap into his power crumbled along with his launch angle. He started his MLB tour with an elevated groundball rate, at 47.8% through May 15, relative to the league’s 41.8%. But from there, it’s like he was deliberately taunting the Shai-Hulud, spiking his groundball rate to 61.8%, second-highest in MLB over that stretch.

The good news is that a lot of those groundballs got through, as he kept his hard-hit rate around average. The bad news is his DHH% was a small-sample mirage, as it went from above league average before May 15 to about half of league average afterwards. There’s not as much power potential as we’d hoped, and he’s not a swing-path change away from becoming a 30-doubles hitter.

So his overall results got better, raising his wRC+ from 62 to 83, but the adjustments he made in his swing decisions weren’t enough to outrun the league figuring him out or the collapse in his launch angle. He became a better hitter in some ways while losing what made him projectable.

The Tacoma Breakthrough?

Ben Williamson’s best  trait has long been his coachability. If you don’t believe me, ask his college coaches, as Kate did last summer. So it came as an encouraging sign that he seemed to learn some lessons from his first tour of MLB.

After he returned to Tacoma, his offense exploded, even by the standards of the PCL, where every night is 90s Night.

Metric	MLB 5/15 – 7/31	AAA post-7/31	PCL Average
Slash line	.262/.311/.311	.327/.417/.510	.271/.360/.440
BB%	6.1%	12.8%	11.0%
K%	19.7%	12.8%	21.6%
ISO	.049	.183	.172
wRC+	83	135	100

But the power was illusive. Even in Triple-A, his barrel rate was just half the PCL average, and his launch angle was just 1%. He wasn’t solving the fundamental bat path issue, just thriving despite it. His success came more from contact and discipline than from barrelling up the ball.

Unfortunately, his time in Tacoma tells us little about whether he solved his vulnerability to changeups and sweepers. He saw just 33 changeups and 43 sweepers after his demotion. The good news is he looked a lot better against the ones he saw. He cut his chase rate on changeups in half and then some, going from 45.1% in MLB to just 21.1% after his demotion; and he only whiffed twice on the 14 total swings on changeups. And against the sweepers, his chase rate fell from 39.1% to 23.1%; and he only whiffed three times out of his 19 total swings. The results were better, but the reality is that 33 AAA changeups and 43 AAA sweepers aren’t enough to know if he actually solved anything.

The Floor

Even if Williamson will never be Kyle Seager or Eugenio Suárez with the bat, his glove continues to give him a floor you could live with. He led AL third basemen in DRS at the time of his demotion, and ultimately finished sixth in MLB despite playing in just 85 games. While that didn’t show up in OAA, the eye test suggests DRS is truer to reality.

So even if his Tacoma results are his true AAA talent, and his MLB results are his true MLB talent—and it’s too early to know if either is true—you still can’t slap a Quad-A label on him.

Consider what it looks like if an 85 wRC+ bat with elite defense at third base is all he is? That’s the version of Williamson that we saw between May 15 and July 31, and it put him on pace for 1.2 fWAR over 150 games, but that’s using OAA for the defensive component, which I don’t trust for Williamson’s 2025. Looking instead at Ke’Bryan Hayes’s 2022 and Maikel Garcia’s 2023, I see pretty similar profiles (with slightly better baserunning) netting out to a 2-3 win player. Baseball Reference, which uses DRS for its defensive component, suggests a 1-4 win player.

That’s not a cornerstone of a championship favorite, but it’s good enough for an everyday player on a contender if he’s one of your weak points.

Seattle might be able to do better than that at third base in 2026. Suárez is still available for money, and Colt Emerson is knocking on the door. But having Williamson as a floor option leaves the Mariners in fine shape, even if his improvements in AAA don’t translate back to the bigs. And if they do, Williamson’s a star.