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Welcome to OCTOBER BASEBALL.

We have for you another Thursday baseball discussion thread, but this time, featuring 100% more playoffs! Which, of course, means no Royals 🙁

Only one game today as three of the four Wild Card series ended in sweeps yesterday.

First, the White Sox knocked out the Astros. Crane’s Boys are out! No great shock.

The Yankees disposed of the Red Sox last evening. Not much of a series as the nonJudgemental Yankees smoked Boston to the tune of 18-2 over two games.

Lastly, the Padres swept the Cubs, winning last night 4-1. I hope you agree with me that the playoffs just became 10 times more enjoyable with the Cubs eliminated.

The only series left is Philadelphia vs Atlanta. The Braves took game one on Tuesday 5-3 with three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Last night, the Phillies scored twice in the top of the eighth to tie the game at 3-3 before winning it in extras, 4-3. Alec Bohm, somewhat of a local kid—went to high school in Omaha before attending Wichita State—hit a home run in the top of the tenth to give the Phillies a lead it would not relinquish.

ALEC'S BOHM RUN GIVES US THE LEAD IN EXTRAS pic.twitter.com/tmlFqG9IrY

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) September 30, 2026

The pitching matchup will be Aaron Nola for the Phillies against Ray Kerr for the Braves.

Nola, a 12-year vet, all with Philadelphia, finished the season only 7-12 with a 4.67 ERA (3% below league average) and a 4.87 FIP. He also allowed the most home runs with 37. This will be his 12th career playoff start.

The Braves counter with Ray Kerr, more of an Opener than a Starter. The 31-year-old lefty only opened one game for the Braves this season, which was his last outing against the Marlins. He fared well, going three innings in which he walked one, allowed two hits, but didn’t give up any runs. He only pitched in nine games this season, but in that limited action, which totaled 18-and-1/3 innings, he sported a 1.47 ERA, 3.97 FIP while striking out 11 and walking two.

More importantly, Kerr faced the Phillies twice in September, and held them scoreless over both outings. In those two appearances, he pitched 6-and-1/3 innings, allowed two hits while walking zero batters and striking out five. None of his four inherited runners came around to score.

Kerr has never before pitched in the playoffs.

You can catch the game on NBC or Peacock at 7:00 p.m. CDT.

Lineups with the visitors first:

Gotta have it.#RedOctoberpic.twitter.com/yg6CVaoWTa

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 1, 2026

And for the home squad:

Game 3. #LetItFlypic.twitter.com/t1p31mOp0U

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 1, 2026

May the best team win.

Hello, October. We would like more Braves games this month.

The Braves will don the Friday home red uniforms tonight in order to bring those dominant vibes to this Wild Card series finale. Whatever it takes – just win today.

Game Notes

Pitching preview

Lineups

Wednesday brought an entertaining day of games as most of the Wild Card matchups wrapped up. The Chicago White Sox rolled over the Houston Astros 7-2 to take the series and will head to Cleveland to face the Guardians next. The New York Yankees offense continued to torment the Boston Red Sox 9-2 and will head off to face the Tampa Bay Rays. The San Diego Padres then finished off the Chicago Cubs with a 4-1 victory and will now square off against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The only game slated for today is between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The Phillies pulled off a 4-3 victory in extra innings to even the series. Now, it’s do-or-die to see which team will move on and face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Here are the details:

Philadelphia Phillies (1-1) at Atlanta Braves (1-1) — 6:00 pm MDT

Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA) vs. Ray Kerr (0-0, 1.47 ERA)

TV/Radio: NBC/Peacock, ESPN Radio, MLB Gameday Audio (Phillies and Braves local radio feeds)

SB Nation sites: The Good Phight, Battery Power

Lineups:

Gotta have it.#RedOctoberpic.twitter.com/yg6CVaoWTa

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 1, 2026

Game 3. #LetItFlypic.twitter.com/t1p31mOp0U

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 1, 2026

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On March 25, 2026, the San Francisco Giants began what would quickly prove to be the worst season in franchise history. You don’t need me to explain all the things that went wrong, but don’t worry: it’s a long and cold offseason, so I will in due time.

A few hours before that horrific journey got underway, I published an article with 26 predictions for the ‘26 season. Now, more than six months later, I can say with confidence what so many of you have uttered to me in the comment sections of articles over the years: you should not listen to a damn word that comes out of my mouth.

The smartest thing I said in the 5,000 blabbering words came before I even got to the predictions. I stated in the intro that the bulk of the predictions were optimistic, justifying it as such: “Because if you’re a Giants fan who doesn’t have optimism on March 25, when will you have it?”

If only I knew just how true that question would be. Tucked at the start of an article where I look as capable of intelligence as Sam Hentges looks capable of accepting the queer community, I accidentally dropped the smartest sentence I’ve ever written. Go figure.

I thought I should revisit those 26 predictions. Publicly reflecting on past predictions is not something I often dabble in, because 10% of the time it looks braggadocios and 90% of the time I’m just admitting to being bad at my job, which my bosses have informed me I should stop doing. But in a season where the bad news rained down from the ownership suites to the front office to the coaching staff to the players to the broadcast booth, it seemed only fair that I get in on the action.

So here are my 26 predictions, starting with the one I got the most wrong, and ending with the one I got the most right (yes, there were a few accurate predictions).

Feel free to tell me how dumb I am in the comments. Just don’t expect me to learn from it.

Tier 6: Seriously, why do you ever listen to me?

These are the predictions that are so wrong they defy explanation.

For years, my sister and I have had an idea wherein I let her write a game recap for me. To paint a picture of my sister’s understanding of sports: once she texted me from a bar bathroom saying she was being hit on by a college football coach, and wanted to know if there was any intelligent talking point she could bring up. I told her to mention the new rule wherein if the shortstop runs backwards into the goal you get extra points. I figured this was such a ludicrous joke that she would know immediately that I was teasing her. She called me an hour later to berate me for embarrassing her in front of an attractive man. This is a true story.

Anyway, we’ve both long thought it would be funny if she wrote a recap for me, on account of her knowing absolutely nothing about sports. It would be entertaining and, no doubt, stupid. The following predictions are so bad, that I had to stop and think about if I let her moonlight for me in this article. Sadly, she did not.

26. The Giants finish second in the NL West and make the postseason

I’m gonna go make a cup of tea. You can have these 10 minutes to guffaw audibly.

Okay, I’m back. Still laughing? Damn. I deserve that. I’m laughing too, honestly.

The Giants, of course, missed the playoffs. Not only did they miss the playoffs, but they missed the playoffs by 23 games. Worse yet, they missed out on second place in the NL West by 26 games. There were only four teams in the Majors — including the Giants — that were 26 games behind first place, and the Giants were 26 games behind second place, in a division where second place was the second-furthest away from first place.

In other words, this prediction really could not have been more wrong. Let’s move on.

25. Gregory Santos will be their best reliever

My stubbornness really showed itself with this prediction. I was adamant that the Giants signing Santos — once one of their top prospects — to a Minor League deal was one of the best moves of the offseason. I held that stance even when he struggled in Spring Training and even when he started the year in the Minors and even when he struggled in the Minors, and even when he was called up and almost immediately optioned.

And then he was designated for assignment with no corresponding move. Just removed from the 40-man roster because the Giants would rather have 39 players than employ Santos. Not only that, but he didn’t even get to make me look smart, because no one else picked him up.

Santos ended the year with five innings pitched, one strikeout, a 3.60 ERA, a 4.50 FIP, and 0.0 fWAR. Which, in fairness, did make him one of the team’s best relievers.

24. Bryce Eldridge has a distinctly mediocre season

Before you all call me a hater, I contextualized this as a mostly good thing. I ended my blurb on Eldridge by saying, “He’ll see pitches and gameplans that he’s never been exposed to before. He’ll struggle to tread water. And if he holds his own, just at an average level, that will be a sign of how good he is, not how bad he is.”

I stand by that. If Eldridge had posted a league-average wRC+ of 100, I would have been very encouraged and optimistic about who he would be in 2027.

Instead, Eldridge looked more than comfortable. He looked like a veteran in the batter’s box, controlling at-bats, controlling the zone, outsmarting pitchers, drawing walks, and hitting for both average and power. His 131 wRC+ ranked 25th out of 205 Major League hitters (minimum: 400 plate appearances), directly ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Schwarber.

If I was going to be wrong about a prediction, this was the one. So at least there’s that.

23. Willy Adames and Rafael Devers start the season hot

There was a lot of fear-mongering surrounding Adames and Devers going into the season. Adames has a history of slow starts, got off to a brutal opening to his Giants tenure in 2025, and was having a rough Spring Training. Devers had been fairly awful in his first month with the Giants, and looked lost in Scottsdale.

I thought nothing of it. Spring Training means so little, and I figured these two established sluggers would hit the ground running when the season began.

Instead, when April came to a close, Adames was hitting .197/.240/.352 and Devers .207/.248/.289. And the season was essentially over.

22. Luis Matos has a big year … somewhere

I wrote this shortly after the Giants designated Matos for assignment. My thought was that a bad team would claim him and give him some run. I recognized there was little reason for optimism, admitting that, “This is not rooted in anything analytical: it’s really hard to look at Matos’ stats and underlying metrics and find a reason for optimism. Instead, it’s just a vibes and hope-based bold prediction, that the Matos who has shown flashes over the years finally puts it all together.”

Well friends, I regret to inform you that he did not. Matos was not claimed by a bad team that would give him some steady run, but instead by the playoff-bound Milwaukee Brewers, who gave him all of 21 plate appearance before designating him for assignment. This time he wasn’t claimed, and he was outrighted to Milwaukee’s AAA affiliate, where he posted a measly 77 wRC+ across the year.

Tier 5: No one ever accused me of being smart

These predictions are wrong. Incorrect. Inaccurate. Just plum not right.

But they’re not as brain-meltingly idiotic as the last batch was. Those first five are enough to bar me for life from applying to the BBWAA. These ones are just wrong, but less embarrassing.

21. Logan Webb throws multiple complete game shutouts

In hindsight, this was even bolder than I imagined. Webb entered the season having thrown just two complete game shutouts in his career, and I thought he’d get to that mark multiple times this season alone. Not only did Webb not have multiple complete game shutouts, but no player in the Majors threw multiple complete games, period. Forget the shutout. No one even went nine innings on more than one occasion.

Webb did throw one complete game, but, hilariously, it was a loss in which he only had to pitch eight innings.

20. We get more bullpen heat

As I mentioned, I wrote the initial predictions article on Opening Day, which meant the Giants had already informed me of some of their thinking for the year. They had released the Opening Day roster, and I was pleasantly surprised to see that both Keaton Winn and Caleb Kilian had made the cut. With Joel Peguero rehabbing an injury and Santos tuning up in AAA, I thought this was the year that we see some modern gas from the Giants bullpen.

Instead, they traded Kilian and Erik Miller. They broke Winn by pitching him three games in a row, an atrocity from which he never recovered. Peguero made it through just 11.1 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. Santos never panned out. The closest heat in the Minors, Will Bednar, saw his velocity take a tumble as he was demoted down to AA. Blade Tidwell was used primarily as a starter.

And as such, only the late-late reunion with Camilo Doval left the Giants with any notable heat coming out of the bullpen at the end of the season.

19. Tony Vitello doesn’t get thrown out early on

Before the season began, there was a common thought that Vitello would be quick to get ejected, given the energy and fire that he brings to managing. I thought it would be the opposite: that Vitello would be so conscious of wanting to be in the fight with his players that he would view an ejection as an abandoment.

I’m still not sure I’m wrong, given the quotes he’s had after his ejections. But even if he views it that way, his actions suggest otherwise. Vitello was thrown out in just the 10th game of the season, and led the Majors with seven ejections on the year.

18. They have five 20-homer hitters

This one ended up looking tremendously dumb, as the Giants fifth-best home run hitter this year was Drew Gilbert, who had just 11 blasts. They had only six players clear the double-digit mark, and I thought five would get to 20?!?

You can see the vision. Devers and Adames were locks. Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos were likely to get there with full, healthy seasons. All it would take was one player popping, be it a leap for Casey Schmitt or Jerar Encarnación, or an early promotion for Eldridge.

As it was, just three players hit the 20-homer barrier, and only just, as Adames and Schmitt both had 21.

17. We see Tim Lincecum

Can you blame a boy for hoping?

16. Someone plays 160 games

This one was trending towards accuracy. Only an out-of-the-blue Devers injury reveal kept him from getting to the mark for the second straight season. As such, he ended up 12 games shy of 160, and this prediction ended up looking dumb. The Giants only had six players who appeared in 100 games, which is pretty jarring.

Tier 4: Wrong, but not idiotically so

I had to make a new tier just to hide how many of these I got wrong. The incorrect predictions take us all the way into the top 10, so I’m hedging on the predictions where yes, I was wrong, but by a slim enough margin that I don’t look foolish. In a few instances, I’m even technically right, but spiritually wrong. It’s a purgatory of sorts.

15. Heliot Ramos rebounds in the right ways

I’ve always been a fan of Ramos, and I’ve always been a believer. One of the things about Ramos’ game that has inspired confidence from me has been his ability to make offseason adjustments.

When he was struggling to make an impact in the Majors, while going outside the zone and hitting balls straight into the dirt, he spent an offseason controlling the zone and lifting the ball. When he broke out as an All-Star on the back of hitting lefties at a historical pace, but struggling against righties, he spent the winter learning how to hit right-handers. And when he came back last year with a renewed ability to hit righties, it was accompanied by a huge step back in his slash line against southpaws, and an even larger step back in his defense.

So I thought this year he would address those things, and improve his defense while getting back to his lefty-mashing ways. And by the letter of the law, I think this prediction was right. He raised his Fielding Run Value from second percentile all the way to … third percentile. Although honestly even that is overselling it, since it’s probably just due to less playing time this year.

Ramos did rebound against southpaws, as he hit posted a 150 wRC+ against lefties. But the performance against same-handed pitchers suffered, and ultimately Ramos was not only a much worse player this year than last year, but he was also traded.

14. ABS has no impact on Patrick Bailey’s defense

ABS definitely impacted Bailey’s defense. After three consecutive seasons of being 100th percentile in both framing and fielding run value, Bailey dipped to 79th and 84th percentile, respectively. I don’t think the new technology hurt the Gold Glover as much as many people feared, and it seems there were other things going on that led to his defensive decline. But ABS certainly had some negative impact.

13. They have three All-Stars

The Giants had two All-Stars, which I guess makes this prediction 66.7% right. Or maybe it only makes it 50% right, since each team is guaranteed at least one All-Star. Luis Arráez was a lock for the team, and Webb made it even though he probably didn’t deserve it.

You can envision a world where they had three All-Stars, though. If Robbie Ray’s heater started a few weeks earlier he could have wiggled his way on. Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee certainly warranted some consideration, and if Devers had played his season in reverse he would have easily made the team.

12. Rafael Devers is a Gold Glove finalist

MLB hasn’t announced the Gold Glove finalists yet, so technically this one isn’t wrong yet. But given that Devers didn’t grade out very well by any defensive metric, we can put this one in the “wrong” bin.

Still, I think in spirit this prediction had some accuracy to it. Devers had some bad moments, but he also had some excellent moments at first base, and looked like he could hold down the position for years to come (though it still remains to be seen how the Giants will handle time at first with both Devers and Eldridge). Perhaps I’m just desperate to find something to paint in a positive light, but I was impressed by Devers’ defense this season.

11. They figure out second base

On the surface, this one is very, very, very wrong. The Giants traded away their All-Star second baseman, and ended the year by cycling through a combination of five backups who risk being DFA’d this offseason, while mixing in a center fielder here and there.

And yet, no one expects the Giants to pursue a second baseman this offseason, because it does feel like they have all the options they need. Whether it will be Schmitt, Marcelo Mayer, or a rotating cast that includes Jonah Cox remains to be seen. The Giants are a long ways away from figuring out second base, but they surely think they have the answer. Now they just need to figure out what it is.

Tier 3: I’m right … kind of

This small tier has the predictions that I’m not really sure about. They’re kind of right, but they’re kind of wrong. We can debate them … hypothetically speaking, of course. Hopefully we all have better things to do than actually debate these.

10. They swing another big deadline deal

This one is technically correct, but I’m not sure it’s accurate in spirit. The Giants made a number of big deals at the deadline, to make nothing of the Bailey trade in May.

Here’s how I described the prediction: “I don’t expect the Giants to redo the Devers trade this summer, and take Bryce Harper or Fernando Tatis Jr. off someone’s hands, though I’d love to see that. But I still think they make a big trade. Likely that means giving up a few of their best prospects for a young, cost-controlled talent, but if they struggle in the standings, it could mean parting ways with some of their MLB-level players, and really re-upping the farm.”

If you squint they did the latter, but I don’t think the trades they made quite qualify. Ramos, Kilian, and Miller were the only players under contract in 2027 that they traded and, especially with the season Ramos was having, none of those names are particularly notable. I think to call this prediction accurate, the Giants needed to have traded one of their core players, or one of their core prospects, and Bailey was too early to be a deadline deal. We’re dealing with semantics here.

9. Daniel Susac survives the year, but…

I labeled this one as a double prediction: “I think Susac survives the year and plays well, but [Jesús] Rodríguez also becomes a huge part of the team at some point, be it as a second baseman, a third catcher, a fourth outfielder, or a super-utility player. There’s room at the table for both of them.”

Susac didn’t really survive the year in the literal sense, given that he suffered a season-ending injury, but he survived the year in the baseball sense, in that he was not returned to the Athletics as a Rule 5 rejectee. And he even enters the offseason as the team’s starting catcher, though truthfully, I’m not entirely ready to declare that he played well.

Rodríguez, however, did not establish himself this year, in part because of his own injury. It’s a little bit hard to parse this prediction because I was assuming that Bailey would still be the franchise catcher, and Susac and Rodríguez would be battling for a backup role.

8. Adrian Houser is replaced

Houser was, indeed, replaced. In mid-June he was moved from the rotation to the bullpen. But, amid a slew of trades and injuries, he kind of returned to the rotation late in the year. In his fourth-to-last game of the season, he pitched five innings, but the Giants used an opener. In his third-to-last game of the season, he started and pitched six innings. In his second-to-last game of the season, he entered in the third inning and pitched five innings. And in his final game of the season, he started before leaving early with an injury.

So this one is kind of a shrug.

Tier 2: I’m right, but you’re not impressed

I only got seven of my 26 predictions right. That’s a pretty nice batting average though, so I can’t be too upset.

Still, it’s pretty easy to get predictions right if that’s your main goal. All you have to do is hug the trunk of the prediction tree, and never step out onto any limbs. Rafael Devers will hit a home run and Logan Webb won’t get traded and The federal government will intervene with the Giants over inclusive hats were all obvious things. I could have included them in my predictions post and upped my winning percentage.

Instead, I tried to at least be a tiny bit bold. But in a few cases, I took the easy way out. These are the correct predictions that probably elicit a “well, duh” from you.

7. There are more Tommy John surgeries coming down the line

This was my lone prediction that was unequivocally negative. And it brings me no joy that I was correct. It seemed that the Giants unparalleled luck with avoiding Tommy John surgeries couldn’t last forever, and when Hayden Birdsong kicked off the spring by needing TJ, I assumed it was just the first domino falling … or the second one, if you want to go back to Randy Rodríguez late last year.

It took awhile for the other dominoes to fall, but fall the most certainly did. First Trevor McDonald, and then Carson Whisenhunt, and finally Tidwell. You could see it coming a mile away, but it doesn’t make it any more enjoyable.

6. Kyle Harrison dominates them

For a while this year, it started to look like the Harrison-for-Devers trade was backfiring in a big way. Devers spent the start of the season looking like he forgot how to hit baseballs, while Harrison made a very strong bid for the All-Star game.

Their trajectories reversed as the season went on, with Devers being the third-best hitter in all of baseball from the start of May until the end of the season, while Harrison fell apart down the stretch (after his first August start, Harrison had a 2.84 ERA and a 2.91 FIP; he ended the season with a 4.20 ERA and a 4.03 FIP).

But along the way, the most predictable thing happened: Harrison dominated the team he grew up rooting for, and was drafted and developed by.

On June 2, the Brewers hosted the Giants. Harrison took the mound sporting a 6-1 record and a 1.57 ERA. He only pitched 5.2 innings in the game, but still struck out 12 batters, while allowing just six baserunners and one run. And you weren’t even mad.

5. The rotation looks worse entering the offseason than last year

This wasn’t exactly a bold prediction either, what with Ray and Tyler Mahle both set for free agency, even if the Giants hadn’t traded them. The hope was that some of the youngsters would become reliable enough options that San Francisco would have the bones of a solid rotation entering the offseason, but sadly that didn’t happen. Not only that, but Webb took quite a step backwards, while Landen Roupp struggled following a strong start to the year.

Last winter, the Giants entered the offseason with a rotation that had question marks. This winter, they enter it with a rotation in shambles.

4. The bullpen will look dramatically different at the end of the year

This was an obvious one, for two reasons: three key bullpen contributors (Jason Foley, Sam Hentges, and Joel Peguero) all began the year on the Injured List, and bullpens always have a lot of turnover.

But they don’t always have this much turnover. As evidence, I present a blurb from this original prediction: “I think the eight arms in the ‘pen for Game No. 162 will have more than 50% turnover from the octet that will be behind the outfield wall at Oracle Park tonight.”

I said that forgetting that the team gets an extra arm because of the September rules, and I still dramatically undersold it.

Of the eight bullpen arms the Giants started the year with, four ended the year injured (Winn, Brubaker, José Buttó, and Matt Gage); two were traded (Miller and Killian); one was released (Ryan Borucki), and one was in AAA (Ryan Walker). Exactly zero of the Opening Day relievers were available to pitch in the final series of the year.

Tier 1: Even a broken Brady is right three times a year

We’re left with just three predictions. Three out of 26 that make me actually look like I potentially know a thing or two.

And you know what? I’ll take it.

3. They have a top-five farm by the end of the year

This was one of the predictions I most wanted to get correct. And admittedly, it took a lot going right for me to get there. Had I been correct about my most egregious prediction — that the Giants would make the playoffs — then I probably would have been wrong about this prediction, because the Giants don’t climb to the elite ranks of farm systems if they trade away Jhonny Level and Bo Davidson instead of trading for Ramon Marquez, Henry Lalane, Joniel Hernandez, and so many others.

Despite graduating Eldridge, the Giants are widely viewed as a top-five farm system now, and there’s no shortage of reasons why. They’ve made excellent trades, they’ve signed big-name international free agents, and they’ve developed players well. The future is exciting, which is good because the present sure ain’t.

2. Harrison Bader and Luis Arráez go in different directions

It’s hard to imagine a prediction being more right than this one, and I’m not even sure if the No. 1 prediction on this list is more right. The reason this one isn’t a spot higher is simply because I hedged my bets.

I didn’t say that Bader will be awful and Arráez will be great; I just said that one of them will struggle, and the other will excel.

My reasoning was fairly simple. There were reasons to be excited about both players (strong defense and an excellent offensive year in 2025 for Bader; preternatural contact skills for Arráez), and reasons to be exceedingly skeptical (poor underlying metrics with no history of sustained offensive success for Bader; awful defense and downward-trending offense for Arráez). There seemed to be a good chance that one of those gambles would work out, and one would not.

I had no idea how intensely that would be true. Bader’s first (and likely last) season with the Giants could not have been more of a disaster. He was one of the worst players in all of baseball when on the field, posting a 49 wRC+ with mediocre defense, while accruing a whopping -0.4 fWAR in just 30 games. He dealt with multiple injuries, and then officially lost his season when, while rehabbing a foot injury, crashed a scooter into a fire truck in the marina in the middle of the night. The Giants docked his pay for the second half of the season, and will almost certainly look to void his contract for 2027.

Arráez, on the other hand, did the opposite. He rejuvenated his defensive reputation, going from a tire fire at second base to someone who will almost surely be a Gold Glove finalist. His spiraling offensive production course corrected, as he posted a 121 wRC+ with the Giants (though that number went tumbling down the stairs with the Phillies). He led all Giants players in fWAR (3.8) despite playing in just 105 games before being traded. He represented the team at the All-Star Game and brought them back an impressive haul at the deadline.

Bader was the Giants worst player this year and Arráez their best. I’ll pat myself on the back for this one. But not as much as for the next one…

1. The Giants have more debuts this year than last year

In hindsight this doesn’t look like a particularly bold prediction. But if you go back to the start of the year, it was far from obvious. The Giants hadn’t protected a single player from the Rule 5 Draft, and as such had just two players on the 40-man roster — Susac and Jesús Rodríguez — who had yet to debut. Buster Posey had earned a bit of a reputation in his first year for being very cautious with promotions, not just in the lower levels of the Minors but from the Minors up to the Majors. And the bulk of the AAA talent that seemed ready to contribute — Eldridge, Gilbert, Whisenhunt, and Tidwell — had debuted the year prior.

So it wasn’t all that easy to see how the Giants would have more players debut than the six that played their first MLB game in 2025.

But my goodness did they. And I put this prediction at No. 1 on the list because they blew past my prediction entirely, and mocked it as they did so.

In all, the Giants had a hilarious 18 different players make their MLB debut this season (and that number should have been 19, but they did Zach Morgan dirty). 18!

For this year, this prediction made me look smart. Just don’t expect me to try it again next year.

Phillies' season ends with the pain of another early postseason knockout originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

ATLANTA – While the Phillies tried to extend their season Thursday night against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park, their Delta 757 charter sat 23 miles away at Hartsfield-Jackson International airport.

A win would send the Phillies west, to Los Angeles and a second straight National League Division Series matchup with the Dodgers.

A loss would send them home, to Philadelphia and another long, cold winter.

It didn’t take long to figure out which way the Phillies would be heading. Aaron Nola was tagged for three runs in the first inning. The Phillies never recovered. Their season came to an end in a 6-2 loss to the Braves in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series.

For just the second time in franchise history, the Phillies qualified for the postseason five years in a row, matching a team-high streak first reached from 2007 to 2011. The Phils won the World Series in 2008, but have not since. They made a surprising run to the World Series in 2022 but were beaten by the Houston Astros in six games. They were a win away from returning to the World Series in 2023 only to collapse and lose Games 6 and 7 of the NL Championship Series at home to Arizona. Since then, they have gone the wrong way, losing in Division Series (their first round of play) in 2024 and 2025 and now in the Wild Card Series.

Meanwhile, their core group of high-priced veteran players has gotten older.

Heading into the offseason, the Phils have many questions, first and foremost: Will Don Mattingly return as manager in 2027? He took over, with an interim tag, for Rob Thomson after the team got off to a 9-19 start in April.

The Phillies played .590 ball (79-55) under Mattingly, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski tried to hire Alex Cora when he let Thomson go, and he seems likely to try again in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

If Cora comes on board, he will be taking over a team of highs and lows, one with an inconsistent offense that is seemingly up one month (see August) and down the next (see September). He will be taking over a team that lacks pitching depth, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Both weaknesses reared their head in recent weeks as the Phils had to scramble to make the playoffs, using ace Zack Wheeler on the final day of the regular season, a circumstance that prevented him from starting Game 1 of the postseason.

Jesus Luzardo pitched well in Game 1 and the Phillies held a 3-2 in the seventh. With few trusted arms in his bullpen, Mattingly went to his All-Star closer, Jhoan Duran, in the bottom of the seventh. Duran got through that inning but gave up the lead on a three-run homer in the eighth and the Phillies lost, 5-3.

They bounced back to win a wild Game 2 Wednesday in 10 innings on the strength of three late home runs and the clutch pitching of Cristopher Sanchez, Alex McFarlane and Andrew Painter. They seemed to have momentum heading into Game 3.

But the momentum disappeared quickly as Nola had big trouble throwing strikes.

Just three of his first 13 pitches to open the game were strikes. He fell behind Ronald Acuna Jr., and Matt Olson, the Braves’ Nos. 2 and 3 hitters, with 3-0 counts and eventually walked both. He then fell behind Michael Harris II, 2-0. Harris hit the next pitch, a sinker down and out of the zone, over the right-field wall for a three-run homer.

Nola did not make it through the second inning. Tim Mayza got the final out of the frame before handing off to Wheeler in the top of the third. The Phillies’ brain trust opted not to start Wheeler on three days’ rest. He’d never done that before. They reasoned that Nola’s best chance of succeeding would be to stay in a starter’s role.

“We’re going to need Nola in this game,” Mattingly said before the game. “Starting him gives us the best version of him.”

The Phillies weren’t sure Wheeler would even be able to pitch until he tested himself by playing catch before the game. He ended up pitching four innings but was not particularly sharp. He gave up three hits and walked three. One of those walks turned into a run when Ozzie Albies stroked a two-run homer in the fourth to give the Braves a 5-0 lead.

Later in the game, Olson hit the Braves’ third homer of the night, a solo shot against Jonathan Bowlan in the seventh.

Atlanta used lefty Ray Kerr as an opener. He pitched 3 1/3 innings and did not allow a run. The only hit Kerr allowed was a single to Kyle Schwarber in the first inning. Kerr then struck out Bryce Harper.

Grant Holmes, Robert Suarez, Didier Fuentes, Dylan Dodd and Chris Sale finished off the Phillies. Sale, the Braves’ ace lefty who started Game 1, entered with two outs in the eighth and struck out Harper.

Before the 2019 season, Harper signed a 13-year, $330-million contract with the Phillies. He came looking for a parade down Broad Street. Eight years later, he boarded a flight back to Philadelphia, still looking.

(More coming…)

Here’s all the info you need for tonight’s Wild Card Series decisive game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The series is tied 1-1.

Aaron Nola, RHP vs. Ray Kerr, LHP

The Braves are going with a bullpen game. Kerr, a lefthander, is obviously starting to try to neutralize the LH power hitters at the top of the Phillies lineup. Not sure who their bulk guy will be.

Lineups:

Gotta have it.#RedOctoberpic.twitter.com/yg6CVaoWTa

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 1, 2026

Game 3. #LetItFlypic.twitter.com/t1p31mOp0U

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 1, 2026

TV: NBC. Announcers: Matt Vasgersian, John Kruk, C.J. Nitkowski, Joey Votto.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Enjoy the game, and discuss amongst yourselves.

Phillies at Braves

First pitch: 8:00 PM EDT
TV: NBC/Peacock
Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola, RHP (PHI), Ray Kerr, LHP (ATL)

It’s the deciding game 3 between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves Thursday afternoon. RHP Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies while the Braves will give the ball to LHP Ray Kerr. First pitch is scheduled for 7pm central time and the game broadcast will be available via NBC/Peacock.

In just a couple days, we will know the Guardians’ 26 choices for their ALDS roster. But, that won’t stop the impatient among us from guessing ahead of time!

Most choices are obvious:

Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedgees – Catchers

Nathaniel Lowe and David Fry – First Basemen

Travis Bazzana and Angel Genao – Second Basemen

Brayan Rocchio – Shortstop

Jose Ramirez – Third Baseman

Angel Martinez, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, Jo Adell, Petey Halpin – Outfielders

Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo – Starting Pitchers

Daniel Espino, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Shawn Armstrong and Cade Smith – Relief Pitchers

All of these players will make the roster. So, who gets the final four spots?

That leaves four positions.

Tanner Bibee, Foster Griffin, Slade Cecconi, Matt Festa, Daniel Schneemann, Rhys Hoskins, Craig Yoho, Franco Aleman and Austin Peterson would seem to be the top remaining options.

If Hoskins is healthy, I suspect he will make the roster to provide an additional right-handed hitter against Hagen Smith, Anthony Kay, Bryan Hudson and Sean Newcombe. Is he healthy? Supposedly, he is scrimmaging. Is he going to actually help vs. LHP? The jury is definitely out there. But, I have a feeling he will make it.

So, who gets the last three spots? Who SHOULD get them? With the depressing news that Colin Holderman is out, I think one answer should be Foster Griffin. Griffin has a 3.08 FIP against LHH. He should be a weapon to be deployed against left-handed hitters and seen as more reliable in that spot than Tim Herrin for the ALDS, given that the team will not need his services as a starter. He is the perfect pitcher to deploy with 1 or 2 runners on and 1 or 2 outs, given his penchant for getting groundballs, if a lefty is at the plate.

Ok, so two spots left. I think you can make a strong argument for Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee and for Daniel Schneemann. Is 14 positions players and 12 pitchers the right mix, or would it be helpful to have an additional left-handed bat on the bench? It is not going to be Kyle Manzardo as there have been zero signs that the team wants him back, at least yet. Would the team pull a 2025 Chase DeLauter and bring Ralphy Velazquez up as a bench bat? I WOULD BE SO HAPPY IF THEY DI… but, I don’t think that’s likely.

If the goal isn’t to get a serious left-handed bat to pinch-hit against Grant Taylor late in a game, then I vote Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi to fill out the roster. Both have experience, both have moxie and both can give you a really good inning of work if needed. In fact, I think the team should consider moving Espino to the back end of the pen and making Cecconi Cantillo’s opener for game three. I don’t oppose Schneemann making the roster but I do think if they want a left-handed bat, they should choose someone with consistent home run power. I know Schneemann provides a ton of defensive versatility and pinch-running skills, but, if that’s what they want, they should probably pick Schneemann over Halpin, and I don’t see them doing that.

So, there you have it. Add Rhys Hoskins, Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi and Foster Griffin to the names listed above and that’s my prediction for the ALDS roster.

By Austin Humphrey

Adrian Rodriguez is done switch-hitting, at least for now. The Texas Longhorns junior shortstop is staying on the left side of the plate, and he’s learning he doesn’t need nearly as many swings to get ready.

Rodriguez hit exclusively left-handed down the stretch of Texas’ 2026 run to Omaha while managing a left-hand injury that has followed him through his first two college seasons. The Longhorns plan to keep it that way heading into 2027.

Texas head coach Jim Schlossnagle said Monday the doctors and specialists Rodriguez saw recommended rest, and that batting right-handed bothered his left hand more than batting left-handed did. “With that rest, the best thing for him, at least at this point in his career, is to just hit on one side of the plate,” Schlossnagle said.

Switch hitting also meant twice the workload. “When you’re a switch hitter, it’s double the work, and whether you’re doing 10 swings in a day, you’ve got to do 10 from each side, or whether you’re doing 1,000, then it’s both sides,” Schlossnagle said.

The decision came through what Schlossnagle called “a series of conversations” over “a very long amount of time.” They involved Rodriguez, members of his family and Troy Tulowitzki, the former major-league shortstop who is now a star assistant for the Longhorns. Tulowitzki’s credibility, built in this case around his ability to “recite off examples of major leaguers that he’s played with” who have done more with fewer swings helped convince Rodriguez to stick with a reduced-volume approach from the left side. The goal was getting everyone on the same page “because we want him to feel supported by everyone around him,” Schlossnagle said.

Part of that process meant changing how Rodriguez prepares. Schlossnagle described telling his star shortstop  that “if some guys need 200 swings before a game to be ready, you need two and you’re ready to go,” even if that’s not an exact swing count.. “A lot of players find comfort and confidence in their work ethic,” Schlossnagle said. “I think he still has that.”

The hand has interrupted Rodriguez’s development more than once. His trouble dates to March 2025, when a pitch against Missouri fractured his left hamate. He finished his freshman season batting left-handed and had surgery that fall to insert a staple. The hardware came out around the end of March 2026 after inflammation that Schlossnagle attributed to an apparent reaction to nickel and cobalt. Rodriguez missed eight games after the procedure and returned against Alabama on April 17.

Even before the full switch, the left side was doing more damage. In an April 30 scouting report, Prep Baseball’s David Seifert listed a .461 slugging percentage for Rodriguez batting left-handed and .244 batting right-handed. The report didn’t include at-bat totals for each side, so those numbers are a midseason snapshot rather than a final split. By June 8, Burnt Orange Nation reported, Rodriguez was hitting exclusively left-handed because it caused less pain.

During Texas’ NCAA tournament run, Rodriguez went 19-for-31 (.613) with 16 RBI in eight games. His best afternoon came June 15, when he went 5-for-5 in a 14–2 elimination-game win over Alabama and hit for the third cycle in Men’s College World Series history. His sixth-inning home run completed the cycle, and his seven RBI tied a single-game event record.

That afternoon will be the easy reference point next spring, but his full season is a steadier measure of what Texas brings back: a .327 hitter with 18 doubles and 47 RBI in 53 starts.

So far, the hand has held up. “I haven’t seen any flare-ups. Certainly going to knock on wood about that,” Schlossnagle said. He added that it would be nice for everyone, Rodriguez most of all, “just to play a season without taking a swing and knowing that if you miss the ball, it’s going to hurt.”

Schlossnagle also said Rodriguez has “some clarity in his own mind about who he is as a player” and pointed to “so much success left on left.”

As for getting the Omaha version of Rodriguez every day, Schlossnagle kept his expectations simple.

“I just want to see him healthy and confident and smiling,” the Texas head coach said. “When he’s doing that, he’ll be just fine.”

So, here we are. One team is going to be having a champagne shower and booking a flight to Los Angeles for the National League Divisional Series and one team will have to face the cold, dark (and in this case, uncertain) offseason having to deal with the extra sting of having been eliminated by a divisional rival.

I think we’re all hoping that it’ll be the Atlanta Braves getting on the plane instead of the Philadelphia Phillies and if it’s going to happen, they’re going to need Ray Kerr (and Johnny Wholestaff, really) to come up huge and keep Philadelphia’s lineup quiet while the offense gets to work against Aaron Nola (and, well, Philadelphia’s whole pitching staff as well).

Obviously, the spotlight is on Kerr who will be making his fourth start and first-ever Postseason appearance. It’s been a long and winding road to get here for Kerr and now the Braves will be leaning on him to make it happen for them on the mound in a winner-take-all situation.

Walt Weiss was asked in the pregame press conference about how Kerr is approaching making this big start and agin, his history is definitely a factor in making sure that the moment doesn’t become too big for him. “Ray is a pretty easygoing guy. He’s got a great story, too, if you haven’t seen it,” said Weiss. “He’s overcome a lot of things in his life. He’s very grateful to be here and I’m sure really excited about the start.”

As far as the strategy goes, Weiss made it pretty clear what he had in mind when he was asked about that as well. “[The Phillies have] obviously a pretty tough left-handed top of the order,” explained Weiss. “Ray has thrown the ball well against these guys, and it’s been recent. I think two different outings within a week, three, three-plus each time, scoreless, did a nice job. Keeps a right-handed starter away from that top of the order for a minute. Ray has thrown the ball really well, he’s done a nice job for us.”

He was also asked about when he came up with the idea and it seemed like one of those ideas that came as a matter of circumstance. “I would say the last week of the regular season, just starting to look at some scenarios,” stated Weiss. “Look, we’ve lost all these starters. We lost three more starters toward the end of the year in Elder and Martin Pérez and Reynaldo López. We started to think a little bit creatively because we knew we might run into something like this. So it was good. It was good that Ray got that start under his belt.”

Meanwhile, the other big move of the day is that Dominic Smith has been given DH duties for this one, despite only receiving liited at-bats and playing time over the course of this season. Obviously his at-bat to end Game 2 didn’t exactly engender a ton of confidence amongst the Braves faithful but Weiss is feeling confident that Smith can come through when called upon.

Weiss was asked about why he thinks Smith can come through for the Braves tonight he explained that it was mostly due to the matchup. “Dom has got a lot of history against Nola. Not saying he’s dominated Nola or anything, but he’s had his fair share of success against him, a lot of at-bats,” said Weiss. A lot of the underlying numbers for Nola favor left-handers against him. Dom has been a big part of our success.“

“Look, he hasn’t had a lot of at-bats recently because when [Sean Murphy] came back, Murph was doing the lion’s share of the catching, which made Drake [Baldwin] the DH, and Dom was the odd man out,” stated Weiss as he also explained why Dominic Smith hadn’t received many ABs in recent times.

“…in the latter part of the season, I was using that DH spot to get guys off their feet, Ronald [Acuña Jr.] in particular. Several times he was the DH, [Ozzie] Albies was the DH. So Dom was the odd man out,” continued Weiss. “But [Dominic] is a professional hitter. He was instrumental in our early season success. He was one of the guys carrying us the first couple months of the season, and his at-bats got limited. Obviously the production was limited.”

Weiss continued to talk about the decision to start Smith and went back to his early-season results as an example (while also admitting that the Game 2 AB was rough). “But even when I’ve used him as a pinch-hitter, it’s almost always a quality at-bat. Tough at-bat yesterday, tough circumstances against a guy throwing 100, but I still felt good about Dom in the box yesterday. He just typically gives you a good — it’s usually a deep count by the time the at-bat is over. He can draw a walk. He uses the whole field. And we just needed a single right there. I thought Dom was our best option to get a single right there. Like I said, he’s a professional hitter.”

For what it’s worth, Dominic Smith has 11 hits in 41 plate appearances and has hit .268/.286/.488 with six doubles and a homer against Nola over the course of his career, so maybe there’s something there. Also, I’d imagine that Smith would be out of there once Nola is out of there (unless Dom just delivers a Big Dominic Smith Moment at the best possible moment) so this doesn’t feel like something we’re going to see for the full nine (or so) innings. Either way, it’ll be fascinating to see how this goes for Smith and the Braves.

Either way, the Braves are still feeling loose and confident heading into Game 3. When Mike Yastrzemski was asked about what the vibe of the clubhouse was like ahead of this big elimination game, Yaz stated that there was still a fun atmopshere in the clubhouse despite so much being at stake.

“It feels like any other day right now. I don’t know if you like to hear that or not, but that’s just the reality of things. It’s another game,” stated Yaz. “There are repercussions at the end of the game, but for us to play our best, it has to be just another game. Because if we start thinking about things and overanalyzing how a pitcher is going to throw, what a hitter is going to be looking for, that’s how you get locked up in those moments. Trusting our preparation, trusting all the work we’ve put in the whole season is the way we’re going to be able to play loose. Guys like Ozzie and Ronny and [Mauricio Dubón] that are laughing and having a good time and bringing out the best in everyone, that’s what they’re going to be doing today because that’s how we operate.”

Mauricio Dubón also seemed pretty loose and confident, though he’s always come off that way in my experiences with him and just observing him around the ballpark. When he was asked about the game moving to 8 p.m. ET, he stated that he was excited about being able to play in front of a full house in primetime. “The vibes are good. It’s the only game that’s being played today. Everybody is going to be watching. Phillies and Braves fans hate each other. So it’s going to be really fun,” said Dubón.

When I asked him about being able to deliver in those big, two-out, high-leverage sitautions, he explained to me that it was all about focus and stepping up in the moment. Just getting the job done, man. If you don’t do it, somebody else will. They’re going to bring somebody else to do it,“ explained Dubón. ”I think the sense of urgency, just try to get the job done. You don’t need a three-run homer to deliver. One at a time is going to be really important right there. If you get it, great. If not, just try to bring one in.“

So while they’re loose, the squad appears to be focused as well. They’re professionals and they know what’s on the line. Ultimately, everybody knows what’s at stake and they know that they’ve got to either produce or go home. It’s that simple. Hopefully once we reach the end of the night, we’ll be here discussing a joyous night at Truist Park instead of a bummer. We’ll see what happens!