Worldwide Sports News

At the start of the offseason, we looked at the initial payroll projection for 2026. While not much has changed to the roster since then, there have been some adjustments. As the end of January approaches, and pitchers and catchers are set to report in just 13 days, the starting payroll is getting closer to a set amount. Let’s take a look at what has changed since then. (If you want to review the original projection from the end of October, you can find that post here.)

Here are some reminders for the projection.

• The majority of these numbers are from Spotrac, which has estimated payroll numbers for all MLB teams.
• Per the CBA, the minimum salary for players in 2026 is $780,000. Any pre-arbitration player has this salary listed by default. These salaries can be slightly different for each player, but not by a significant amount.
• This is not a roster projection for 2026. Some players on this list are currently in the organization but may be planned for a minor league role. This is just in place to show what a minimum commitment would be. Minimum salaries can be swapped out for any other minimum salary player that would be in the minors.
• While I do not think the Brewers will break camp with 14 position players and 12 pitchers, that is how it is set up below due to current commitments. That will change before the season.
• In the initial payroll for 2026, I included the declined options after the 2025 season. Spotrac has moved those numbers to the 2025 season, so I have also adjusted for that to keep the numbers consistent.
• The final projected payroll for 2025 was $156,266,827, per Spotrac. That was 18th in MLB.

First, here are the projections for the initial roster.

Here’s a summary of what has changed since the original payroll:

• Brandon Woodruff accepted his qualifying offer. That added his $22.025 million salary into the payroll. Even though Woodruff accepted the offer, he will also receive the buyout for his option being declined (that is factored into 2025 payroll).
• William Contreras is the one player who still has a pending arbitration decision. Currently, he is estimated at $9.9 million, which is what he filed for. The Brewers filed for an $8.55 million salary. A deal could still happen before the hearing, but the salary will be somewhere between those two numbers.
• Every other player that is in an arbitration year agreed to their salary. The contract amounts have been added above.
• The following players have been removed: Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, Nick Mears
• The following players have been added: Brandon Woodruff, Ángel Zerpa, Akil Baddoo

The total above is just the initial total based on the projected active roster. However, there’s still more money to factor in to the payroll. If you compare it to the active roster at the end of the season, the Brewers only had just over $84 million of their $156 million total on the active roster. Here’s where the rest of the payroll came from. (Some rounding is used in the table, so actual amounts will be slightly different.)

Some of those numbers will be in the 2026 payroll as well. Specifically, the last four numbers will be very similar to 2025. The first three will be different in 2026. For the moment, there will not be any options to consider after the 2026 season, so that number can be ignored.

As for the other two numbers, it’s difficult to include a solid projection. Those numbers can easily be inflated by circumstances during the season. For example, if we looked at the injured list at the end of 2024, that was highly inflated due to Yelich finishing the season on it. If we go back to 2022, the traded/release player number was significantly higher because Lorenzo Cain’s final year salary was included. That would also result in the active payroll having a lower figure due to the changes in players, but those numbers end up in the IL or traded/released categories instead.

There’s one other factor that Spotrac considers in their payroll estimate. Even though the initial projection factors in 26 players, Spotrac adds in the payroll for 12 additional pre-arbitration players. Considering the Brewers were paying for seven IL players and eight players not on the team anymore (not counting two who were paid under $10,000), adding in 12 more players is a reasonable estimate. Those 12 players would make $9.36 million total. (Spotrac uses a slightly higher $820,000 estimate for pre-arbitration players, but the CBA minimum is at $780,000.)

What we can expect for 2026 is similar to the 2025 payroll. In terms of cash payroll, the total will at most be around that $156 million mark. The Brewers have been in the $140-$156 million range in recent years and that likely will not change. With that in mind, here’s a comprehensive look at the estimated payroll for 2026.

That leaves $17.4 million in potential additional payroll space. That extra space would be needed for the team to make in-season moves. It gives them the ability to take on money in contracts for players acquired by trade. It would also factor in contracts for players who make the team that are on minor league contracts (such as the recently signed Reese McGuire). It also gives them the opportunity to bring in a low-cost contract in spring training if the team has a sudden need.

With the overall quiet offseason for the Brewers, the payroll appears to be heading to a similar point in 2026. Any space remaining will be needed for in-season flexibility. There is potential for a smaller signing, since the team gained $7 million in space after trading Peralta. However, the team may be content to just save that money for now. If that’s the case, what we’re looking at will be close to the current spending plan for next season.

For the second straight and now the fifth time, a player has topped the ballot in his first try (and technically, No. 1 overall voted prospect Braden Montgomery sorta doesn’t count). But this round, Phil Fox has joined Mathias LaCombe, Ky Bush and Zach Franklin as first-timers and Vote winners all in one sweep. Fox earned 12 of 50 (24%) votes:

Also like Franklin’s before him, this is Fox’s first time on our ballot.

Past No. 33s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote
2025 Voting lasted only 31 rounds
2024 Tanner McDougal (25%)
2023 Voting lasted only 24 rounds
2022 Voting lasted only 17 rounds
2021 Seby Zavala (28%)
2020 Matt Foster (55%)
2019 Lenyn Sosa (38%)
2018 Evan Skoug (35%)

Franklin became just the third righty and fourth relief pitcher (and third still with the club, with Peyton Pallette’s loss to Cleveland) to advance:

For this round, shortstop Ryan Burrowes joins the fun.

South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2026

1. Braden Mongomery — 59% (Smith 17%, Bonemer 9%, Schultz 7%, Antonacci 3%, Adams/Carlson/McDougal 2%, Fauske/Oppor 0%)
2. Hagen Smith — 40% (Bonemer 28%, Schultz 18%, McDougal 5%, Antonacci 4%, Carlson 3%, Bergolla/Oppor 1%, Adams/Fauske 0%)
3. Caleb Bonemer — 47% (Schultz 34%, Antonacci 10%, Carlson/McDougal 4%, Bergolla 2%, Adams/Fauske/Oppor/Perez 0%)
4. Noah Schultz — 49% (Antonacci 25%, Carlson 11%, McDougal 7%, Adams/Bergolla/Oppor 2%, Perez 1%, Fauske/Lodise 0%)
5. Sam Antonacci — 41% (Carlson 25%, McDougal 20%, Bergolla/Perez 4%, Oppor 3%, Adams 2%, Fauske 1%, Diaz/Lodise 0%)
6. Tanner McDougal — 39% (Carlson 36%, Bergolla 7%, Adams 6%, Pallette 5%, Fauske 3%, Oppor 2%, Lodise 1%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
7. Billy Carlson — 52% (Adams 18%, Oppor 12%, Bergolla 9%, Fauske 5%, Lodise/Pallette/Wolkow 2%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
8. Christian Oppor — 24% (Murphy 20%, Adams/Fauske 16%, Wolkow 10%, Bergolla 9%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
9. Shane Murphy — 34% (Adams 20%, Wolkow 13%, Fauske 16%, Bergolla 9%, Palisch 4%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
10. Mason Adams — 43% (Wolkow 22%, Bergolla 11%, Fauske/Pallette 10%, Lodise/Palisch/Perez 2%, Diaz/Hodge 0%)
11. Jaden Fauske — 24.0% (Perez 23.5%, Hodge 13.4%, Bergolla 12.9%, Wolkow 8%, Pallette 5%, Diaz/Gonzalez/Lodise/Palisch 3%)
12. Jeral Perez — 20% (Umberger 15%, Wolkow 13%, Hodge 12.3%, Palisch 11.9%, Bergolla 11.4%, Lodise 7.3%, Pallette 6.9%, Diaz 2%, Gonzalez 1%)
13. Grant Umberger — 28% (Palisch 19%, Wolkow 13%, Bergolla 12%, Hodge 11%, Lodise 10%, Pallette 4%, Diaz 3%, Gonzalez/Larson 1%)
14. Mathias LaCombe — 41% (Bergolla 19%, Wolkow 17%, Pallette 7%, Palisch 6%, Gonzalez 4%, Hodge/Lodise 2%, Diaz/Larson 1%)
15. William Bergolla — 35% (Wolkow 20%, Pallette/Palisch 13%, Larson 6%, Diaz/Gordon/Lodise 4%, Hodge 2%, Gonzalez 0%)
16. George Wolkow — 38% (Pallette 22%, Palisch 12%, Gordon 8%, Lodise 6%, Gonzalez 5%, Batista/Diaz/Larson 3%, Hodge 0%)
17. Peyton Pallette — 38% (Palisch 13%, Lodise 11%, Gordon/Larson 10%, Gonzalez 8%, Batista 5%, Diaz 3%, Hodge/Mogollón 2%)
18. Blake Larson — 21% (Lodise 18%, J. Gonzalez/Palisch 15%, C. Gonzalez 11%, Gordon 10%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Hodge 2%, Diaz 0%)
19. Ky Bush — 24% (Palisch 19%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 16%, J. Gonzalez 8%, Gordon/Batista 6%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Hodge 0%)
20. Jake Palisch — 26% (Paez 21%, Lodise 19%, J. Gonzalez 13%, C. Gonzalez/Gordon 8%, Batista/Hodge/Mogollón 2%, Diaz 0%)
21. Jedixson Paez — 45% (Nishida 20%, Gordon 14%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 8%, J. Gonzalez 4%, Mogollón 2%, Batista/Diaz/Hodge 0%)
22. Christian Gonzalez — 22% (Nishida 18%, Gordon 17%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Lodise 10%, Hodge 8%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Ziehl 0%)
23. Rikuu Nishida — 30% (Gordon 18%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Gowens 10%, Lodise 8%, Batista 7%, Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 3%, Diaz 2%)
24. Kyle Lodise — 23% (J. Gonzalez/Gowens 18%, Gordon 14%, Batista/Carela 7%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
25. Jacob Gonzalez— 26% (Gowens 21%, Gordon 20%, Schweitzer 11%, Batista 6%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Hodge 3%, Carela/Diaz 2%)
26. Riley Gowens — 29% (Zavala 21%, Carela 13%, Gordon 11%, Batista 7%, 11%, Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Schweitzer 4%)
27. Samuel Zavala — 33% (Carela/Gordon 15%, Alcala 10%, Ziehl 8%, Batista/Schweitzer 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón 3%)
28. Lucas Gordon — 36% (Carela 19%, Alcala/Batista/Schweitzer 9%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge 3%, Albertus 2%)
29. Juan Carela — 28% (Diaz/Hodge 13%, Batista 11%, Alcala 9%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 7%, Albertus/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
30. Landon Hodge — 19% (Batista 15%, Iriarte 13%, Alcala/Diaz/Ziehl 10%, Albertus/Schweitzer 8%, Mogollón 6%, Rodriguez 2%)
31. Gage Ziehl — 19% (Albertus 17%, Alcala/Galanie 12%, Iriarte 9%, Batista/Diaz/Rodriguez/Schweitzer 7%, Mogollón 3%)
32. Zach Franklin — 38% (Alcala 15%, Batista 13%, Albertus/Diaz/Schweitzer 8%, Galanie/Iriarte/Mogollón/Rodriguez 3%)
33. Phil Fox — 24% (Alcala 16%, Batista/Galanie 12%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 10%, Albertus/Diaz 6%, Mogollón/Rodriguez 2%)

Alexander Albertus
Third Baseman
Age 21
2025 high level Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
Age relative to high level +0.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 8 games ▪️ 0 HR ▪️ 2 RBI ▪️ .333/.520/.444 ▪️ 3-of-3 (100.0%) SB ▪️ 6 BB ▪️ 3 K ▪️ 1.000 FLD%▪️ 0.3 WAR

What can you say further about Albertus? He seems to have great tools but an uncanny ability to stay off of the field (just eight games in a season-plus in the White Sox system). In 2025, he was assigned to Kannapolis but was … wait for it … injured. He lasted just eight games of ACL rehab before hitting the IL-60 again.

Marcelo Alcala
Center Fielder
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -0.6 years
Overall 2025 stats 42 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .233/.325/.479 ▪️ 14-of-15 (93.3%) SB ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 63 K ▪️ .935 FLD%▪️ 1.2 WAR

Alcala is a talent to dream on. Though still raw, he flashed power that we simply do not see in the White Sox system, especially when combined with the raw speed that can swipe bases at a 90%+ rate. Defense and bat discipline are issues to be sure, but imagine what additional outfield reps, AZ batting cage time, and even some training on the bases could do.

Aldrin Batista
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age 22
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 6
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -1.2 years
Overall 2025 stats 2-0 ▪️ 7 games (2 starts) ▪️ 14 IP ▪️ 5.79 ERA ▪️ 17 K ▪️ 7 BB ▪️ 1.429 WHIP ▪️-1.2 WAR

Batista was our No. 6-voted player in last year’s poll and top righthander — and then disaster struck, as he started the third Dash game of the season on April 6 and then was out more than four months with a stress fracture in his right (pitching) elbow. His return in late August was iffy, with three poor relief appearances of five. But he ended the season with a scoreless (two-inning) “opener” start, which hopefully reverses the curse for 2026.

Ryan Burrowes
Second Baseman
Age 21
2024 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 23
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking N/R
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -2.0 years
Overall 2025 stats (Low-A/High-A) 111 games ▪️ 6 HR ▪️ 39 RBI ▪️ .255/.342/.355 ▪️ 47-of-53 (88.7%) SB ▪️ 39 BB ▪️ 110 K ▪️ .976 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It feels like Burrowes has been around forever, and he’s still only 21 years old (and playing at a level significantly younger than his age). His first taste of High-A ball went pretty well, as his baserunning seems to have no trouble translating at any level. The hit tool is solid, although he continues to struggle with contact — a no-no for a speed-over-power guy.

Reudis Diaz
Right-handed relief pitcher
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -2.1 years
Overall 2025 stats 1-1 ▪️ 1 SV▪️ 21 games (4 finishes) ▪️ 27 2/3 IP ▪️ 2.28.ERA ▪️ 18 K ▪️ 8 BB ▪️ 1.084 WHIP ▪️1.2 WAR

Who? You’re forgiven for being unfamiliar with an extremely young arm who hasn’t yet gotten out of rookie ball, but our No. 77 prospect a year ago (then a starter, repeating the DSL and killing it) made a successful adjustment Stateside. He’ll return to starting in 2026, likely getting his feet wet in Arizona and getting a promotion to Low-A in the second half of the season.

Ryan Galanie
First Baseman
Age 25
2025 high level Birmingham (AA)
Age relative to high level +1.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 119 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 94 RBI ▪️ .276/.327/.422 ▪️ 14-of-17 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 35 BB ▪️ 79 K ▪️ .995 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It’s been a slow but steady climb for this 13th-rounder in 2023. The good news here is, with the caveat that Galanie has always competed older than his level, Galanie has found some footing. While his power/slugging numbers are merely OK, he drove in 94 runs in 2025. He disappeared a bit in the playoffs for Birmingham (just four hits in six games, with five walks as well) but started every game in the march to a second consecutive Southern League title for the Barons.

Jairo Iriarte
Right-Handed Relief Pitcher
Age 24
2025 SSS Top Prospect Vote Ranking 19
2025 high level Charlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level -4.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (Rookie/AAA) 3-3▪️ 1 SV ▪️ 37 games (5 starts, 9 finishes) ▪️ 48 IP ▪️ 7.13 ERA ▪️ 50 K ▪️ 37 BB ▪️ 1.917 WHIP ▪️ -0.8 WAR

The 2025 season was an utter disaster for Iriarte, who went from prospective South Side rotation member to lost in space. The righty, who made his brief debut in the majors in 2024, both lost the plate and misplaced his strikeout power. The Brian Bannister Pitching Lab has its work cut out here, for sure.

Javier Mogollón
Shortstop
Age 20
2025 high level Kannapolis (Low-A)
Age relative to high level -1.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 51 games ▪️ 5 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .220/.347/.387 ▪️ 15-of-21 (71.4%) SB ▪️ 30 BB ▪️ 56 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.0 WAR

An ascending star just one year ago, we have to tap the breaks a bit on Mogollón after a lackluster first full season of minors ball. While still young for his level and managing to keep his head above water in a new league every season of his career, Mogollón’s undeniable hitting in Rookie ball fell off significantly with the Cannon Ballers. However, how much of that was due to battling injury is undetermined, as Mogollón was shelved for what turned out to be the season on July 2.

Yobal Rodriguez
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age18
2025 high levelDSL White Sox (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -1.5 years
Overall 2025 stats0-3 ▪️ 13 games (10 starts) ▪️ 30 1/3 IP ▪️2.97 ERA ▪️ 33 K ▪️ 13 BB ▪️ 1.022 WHIP ▪️ 1.2 WAR

Rodriguez is a rare DSL pitcher, not for his relatively light innings load, but as a primary starter — and at just 17 years old (Yobal turns 18 on February 9). Inasmuch as it’s tough to project anyone out of the DSL, especially pitchers, you could hardly have hoped for more from him in his pro debut.

Tyler Schweitzer
Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age25
2025 high levelCharlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level -3.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (AA/AAA) 8-2 ▪️ 27 games (10 starts) ▪️ 99 2/3 IP ▪️4.61 ERA ▪️ 81 K ▪️ 41 BB ▪️ 1.344 WHIP ▪️ 0.8 WAR

Schweitzer relieved in most of his games in 2025, but he remains a starter in our eyes given he was consistently paired with Tanner McDougal in Birmingham Barons starts. And in Birmingham, Schweitzer was divine: 1.27 ERA that included a long scoreless streak leading to a Charlotte promotion, 0.946 WHIP. However, everything the southpaw did as a Baron, he undid as a Knight (7.92 ERA, 1.740 ERA). While other gilded arms (Drew Thorpe, Grant Taylor) get to skip Charlotte entirely, Schweitzer was not so lucky. And that luck could prevent him from ever seeing the majors.

Past South Side Sox Prospect votes

• Here is how 2018 wrangled out — all 42 picks. Also, here is an archive of every article in the 2018 series.
• Here is how 2019 came together, all 50 picks, and the archive as well.
• Now 2020, with the archive.
• Here is the 2021 wrap-up of just 35 picks due to flagging participation, along with the full archive.
• Here is the 2022 link to the 27-pick wrap, along with the full archive.
• Round 24 of voting was the last of 2023 (we did not do an actual wrap for the voting, but Jordan Sprinkle ended up being our final pick), and the full archive.
• In 2024 Abraham Núñez was our 34th pick to end the series, and here is the wrap-up post and full archive of each profile.
• And last year, we did 31 picks, ending with Eric Adler. Here is the wrap and full stream, of every article.

In Economics, there is a fairly basic concept known as the law of marginal utility. We usually explain this to students through the use of pizza. Each slice of pizza is a little less satisfying than the one before it. This lesson is usually taught at a similar time as the law of diminishing returns. They are similar concepts and both have a ton of relevance for big league baseball teams.

One of the more infamous lines from “Blazing Saddles” was when Mel Brooks character (the governor) said, “we gotta do something to save our phony baloney jobs!” I imagine the job of general manager is the same in many instances. Executives want to look like they are actually doing something. It comes down to being able to explain yourself when things don’t work. If you can point to moves that were popular at the time then you can plausibly deny responsibility for the failure.

Of course, this is organizational groupthink we are describing. This has little to do necessarily with what Dana Brown or Jim Crane might be thinking. It is an industry wide issue. We can illustrate this psychological dilemma with the Astros backup catcher situation. The Astros need a backup catcher now that Victor Caratini is in Minnesota. The temptation is to panic and go out and sign the biggest name available so you can show the fans you are doing something.

Some of this is about the name itself. Fans in general feel better about players they have heard of. We can dog Jeff Bagwell for hours, but he is generally right about casuals. Most people know the numbers on the back of the baseball card. Some of it is an overall perception. If Jim Crane says he is willing to spend up to the CBT then fans feel better if the team spends all of those available funds. That is true whether all of those funds are actually dedicated to making the team better or not.

The Astros currently have two internal options at backup. Cesar Salazar has come up for brief cups of coffee in each of the past two seasons. Framber Valdez notwithstanding, most pitchers enjoy pitching to him and he comes in with high marks as a receiver. The minor league offensive numbers are not sparkling, but he is slated to be a backup catcher and those players may make 40 starts in a typical season.

The club also signed Carlos Perez to what we commonly refer to as an NRI. That stands for non-roster invitee. It is officially a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He has spent parts of five seasons with the Angels and Athletics, but has never done anything more than perform as a backup at the big league level. However, he has seen a power uptick since 2021 where he has hit 27 or more home runs four different times.

Those players have little in their track records to compare with Jonah Heim and Christian Vazquez historically. Thus, we get to the Bagwell theory. Those numbers have relevance only insofar as they are likely to be repeated. Thus, we get to the crux of the law of marginal utility. A player’s extra income must justify additional production. If you are paying more money for the same thing then you are overpaying. In a universe where resources are limited, you cannot afford to pay extra for the same thing. Below are the ZIPS DC projections for the four catchers mentioned. ZIPS DC stands for ZIPS Depth Chart. They include the same percentage stats, but estimate playing time based who is likely to be on the team’s depth chart.

Most of you are familiar with the basic stats here, but you may be unfamiliar with weighted on base average (wOBA). Essentially, it takes everything a hitter does and converts into a number that approximates OBP. Therefore, it can be interpreted the same way. The league average tends to hover between .320 and .33o depending on the season. So, none of these guys are good offensive players. For instance, Yainer Diaz is projected to have a .317 wOBA according to ZIPS. So, none of these catchers are going to seriously challenge Yainer for playing time.

However, all of these catchers have roughly the same value because of differences in defensive skills. In a vacuum, signing either Heim or Vazquez is defensible based on their projected overall value. According to Fangraphs, the current going rate for wins is somewhere between eight and nine million dollars. Obviously, this is theoretical in nature since many players are pre-arbitration players making pennies on the dollar, but in free agency, these rates normally average out fairly well.

So, paying a Heim or a Vazquez in the neighborhood five million or less seems reasonable on its face. If the Astros signed such a contract with one of those two then it would be defensible on that level. Yet, when you already have two catchers projected to produce the same value it makes less sense. So, each additional catcher is like that additional slice of pizza. It is just less useful than the one before it.

Depending on the source, the Astros have approximately nine million left to spend under the CBT. That might not be enough for anything really useful, but if you shed some salary here or there you could afford an extra position player or starting pitcher. That money gets eaten away when you add in a catcher that might not be any better than the guys you already have.

Organizations limit themselves all the time by chasing veterans on the margins. There is some positive utility there. Veterans can help stabilize a clubhouse under the right circumstances, and there might be the slightest of bumps at the gate. Yet, when resources are finite, the teams that do the best are the ones that resist that temptation. They either get veterans for far underneath their going rate or they rely on younger players. The Astros probably will go that direction at catcher.

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season have the Yankees fighting for a playoff spot.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

• The Yankees finish with a record of 87-75, putting them in fourth place in the AL East (behind the 90-72 Blue Jays, 90-72 Red Sox, and 88-74 Orioles)
• That 87-75 record has the Yanks tied for the fifth-best record in the AL (behind the Jays, Red Sox, O's, and 88-74 Mariners) and tied for the eighth-best record in MLB (also behind the Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets)
• In this scenario, the Yankees would be tied for the third Wild Card in the AL with the 87-75 Astros
• The other projected AL playoff teams are the Jays, Red Sox, O's, Tigers (83-79, AL Central winner) and M's (AL West winner)
• The Yankees' World Series win percentage is 5.4, which is the eighth-highest in MLB.

On the Yankees and the AL East, Szymborski writes:

"ZiPS doesn’t see the AL East all that differently from how it did last preseason, though it does anticipate a slightly larger separation at the top of the division, with the Jays and Red Sox tied for first, and the Orioles and Yankees falling a couple of games back." 

Barring a late bold move, the Yanks will be mostly running it back in 2026.

Their biggest move this offseason was to re-sign Cody Bellinger. Beyond that, Trent Grisham accepted the QO to return. New York also traded with the Marlins for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers, and allowed both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to leave via free agency.

The San Diego Padres have needs, but to this point in the offseason, they have not been addressed. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball talks about the need for the Padres to address the first base position and includes a possible trade candidate in Nick Castellanos as well as a free agent candidate that San Diego fans are very familiar with in Luis Arraez. There has been some talk about the Padres possibly trading for a player like CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals which would likely result in Jake Cronenworth moving back to first base. San Diego has options and there are other trade possibilities and free agents available for the Padres to address their needs, but with Spring Training less than two weeks away, they should address the vacancy sooner than later.

Padres News:

• Ramon Laureano was added to the San Diego roster at the 2025 trade deadline and a big reason he was added by the Padres is his $6.5 million club option for the 2026 season. With Laureano in the starting lineup, San Diego will not have to have a committee of players like Jason Heywayd, Connor Joe and Brandon Lockridge to handle one position on the roster. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball reminds fans that Laureano should not be overlooked and expects him to have a solid year with a full season in San Diego. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune also focuses on Laureano for his Padres roster review adding further insight as to what Padres fans can expect from the left fielder in 2026.
• The Padres and left-hander Marco Gonzales reached a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. If he makes the roster, Gonzalez would make $1.5 million and could earn another $1 million in incentives.
• Keith Law of The Athletic listed catcher Ethan Salas as the No. 70 prospect on his top 100 list earlier in the week. He released his organizational rankings Thursday and the Padres farm system was 30^th in MLB.
• Late Monday it was reported the Padres had “checked in” on free agent pitcher Zac Gallen formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors reported that Jon Heyman said the Padres are longshots for Gallen.

Baseball News:

• The Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants agreed to a trade to send Kai-Wei Teng to Houston for minor league catcher Jancel Villarroel. The Astros also added former Padres reliever Tom Cosgrove on a minor league deal.
• The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees agreed to a trade that sent reliever Jayvien Sandridge to Los Angeles for cash considerations.
• It was announced Thursday that Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, Jackson Chourio and Wilyer Abreu were all added to the roster for the Venezuela World Baseball Classic team.  

Like a phoenix from the ashes, just like Daniel Espino the day before, George Valera returns to the Covering the Corner prospect rankings after not being included last year. Valera dominated the voting yesterday, earning 38.61% of the vote, beating out Jace Laviolette (28.6%) and Joey Oakie (12.7%). Valera had previously been ranked in every CTC top 20 from 2018 all the way to 2024.

I feel like I’ve been writing about him forever, but Valera’s journey was incredible, debuting at No. 10 in 2018 before he ever played a game in the Cleveland minor league system. He bumped up to No. 3 in 2019, dropped to No. 6 in 2020, moved up to No. 4 in 2021, soared all the way to No. 1 in 2022, dropped back to No. 3 in 2023, then to No. 6 in 2024 before being removed from the rankings entirely in 2025 after he’d been DFA’d by the team in the offseason following a major knee injury that required reconstruction.

It felt like everyone had given up on Valera — myself included — after he ruptured the patella tendon in his right knee attempting to make a catch on the outfield wall in September 2024. He also missed time due to suspension after making contact with an umpire while fighting an opposing team’s catcher in 2023. It seemed like that was the final nail in the coffin for the oft-injured, but always promising former top prospect.

He had consistently been excellent at almost every level, every year, a 162 wRC+ in 2018, a 165 wRC+ at High-A in 2021, reaching Triple-A in 2022 with a 123 wRC+, but injuries piled up. He broke his hamate bone in his right hand/wrist in 2018, strained his oblique in 2021, sustained another hamate injury in 2023, then strained his hamstring in 2024 before the knee injury.

It seemed his time with Cleveland was over after he’d been removed from the 40-man roster, but Valera re-signed with Cleveland on a minor league deal, then rehabbed his knee. He returned to Columbus for a whopping two games in early June 2025 before again hitting the injured list with right flank soreness. He returned again in late July and something was different this time. Valera played like a man with nothing to lose.

The talented Dominican crushed baseballs in Columbus, even hitting for the cycle on Aug. 22. Whispers turned into screams from the rooftops for him to be promoted to Cleveland and as soon as September rolled around … it happened. Valera made his debut Sept. 1, then picked up his first MLB hit by socking a ball off the green monster in his second career game. He blasted his first career home run off Joe Ryan on Sept. 20. In his 48 plate appearances spanning 16 games at the MLB level, he slashed .220/.333/.415, good for an above average 113 wRC+.

Valera then had a moment he’ll never forget, crushing a home run in his second ever at bat in the MLB Playoffs, a first-inning solo shot off Casey Mize that helped lead Cleveland to a 6-1 game two victory.

With Cleveland releasing Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan and not signing additional outfield help in free agency, a starting outfield job appears to be Valera’s to lose for the upcoming 2026 season.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 14 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:

Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Yorman Gomez, RHP (Age 23)
2025 (A+): 17 G, 76.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.11 WHIP
2025 (AA): 10 G, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 28.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.25 WHIP

Venezuelan prospect who broke out in with increased velocity in 2025, putting up nearly identical numbers at both High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. Gomez was added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster.

Josh Hartle, LHP (Age 22)
2025 (A+): 22 GS, 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 24.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.05 WHIP
2025 (AA): 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 16.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Joey Oakie, RHP (Age 19)
2025 (ACL): 9 GS, 35.0 IP, 7.46 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 27.6 K%, 13.5 BB%, 1.69 WHIP
2025 (A): 6 GS, 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 30.7 K%, 14.9 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Cleveland’s 3rd round pick in 2024 out of high school, Oakie got off to a rough start in the Complex League, but then absolutely dominated when promoted to Single-A Lynchburg with a pair of 11 strikeout performances.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season portend good things for the Mets.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

• The Mets finish with a record of 89-73, good for second place in the NL East (behind the 91-71 Phillies)
• That 89-73 record gives the Mets the third-best record in the NL (behind the Phillies and 96-66 Dodgers) and fifth-best record in MLB (the Blue Jays and Red Sox are both projected to finish 90-72).
• In this scenario, the Mets would be the top Wild Card team
• The other projected playoff teams are the Cubs (87-75, NL Central winner), Braves and Brewers (both 86-76 while making it in as Wild Card teams)
• The Mets' World Series win percentage is 6.1, behind only the Dodgers (18.2), Phillies (7.6), and Astros (6.8)

On the Mets' offseason and outlook, Szymborski writes:

Despite the loss of Pete Alonso, ZiPS thinks the Mets had a pretty effective offseason. 

The Mets have had a transformational winter, moving on from Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil.

New York's main moves have been signings of Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, and Luke Weaver, and trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr.

Greetings! It’s that magical time of the year when baseball pundits publish their annual rankings and Orioles fans can argue about whether Samuel Basallo should be the fourth-best prospect in baseball or the eighth. But beyond the fortunes of individual prospects, where does the organization as a whole stack up heading into 2026?

The Orioles’ farm system has seen significant turnover in the past six months. The team conducted a full sell-off at the July 2025 trade deadline, moving Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and several relievers in exchange for 16 prospects—11 of them pitchers—highlighted by lefty Boston Bateman (from San Diego), right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown (Toronto), and hard-throwing Wellington Aracena and control artist Anthony Nunez (Mets). The emphasis on arms addressed long-standing criticisms of the organization’s pitching development. Then, unexpectedly in December, the Orioles flipped some of that newly-acquired depth to land Shane Baz from the Rays, sending out four prospects including 2025 draft picks Caden Bodine and Slater de Brun, along with pitching prospect Michael Forret. The net effect: Baltimore restocked with young, high-upside arms in the summer, then cashed in some of that capital for a major league starter with three years of control.

In the last month, three major outlets have now weighed in on farm system rankings: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline’s executive poll. The results paint the Orioles of a system in transition—one that’s graduated significant talent but still has plenty of reasons for optimism.

The Rankings

Let’s start with where everyone has the Birds. ESPN slots the Orioles at 13th overall, while Keith Law has Baltimore ranked somewhat higher in his tiered system (No. 9 overall, third tier). And in MLB Pipeline’s executive poll, the Orioles received votes for best farm system but didn’t crack the top tier—a notable slide from the days when Baltimore was the consensus No. 1 system in baseball.

For context, Milwaukee now sits atop ESPN’s rankings, followed by Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Law agrees on Milwaukee, with Los Angeles and Seattle make up the rest of his Top 3. MLB Pipeline gives the top three spots to LA, Seattle, and Detroit, putting the Brewers fifth. When it comes to prospect depth, the Brewers have become something of a model organization, excelling on the international market (Jesús Made, Jackson Chourio) and finding later-round draft gems. It wasn’t that long ago when the Orioles were the ones being held up as the gold standard. Six consecutive No. 1 farm system rankings from MLB Pipeline feels like ancient history now.

The good news is that the evaluators remain bullish on the system’s top-end talent. Basallo continues to appear in the top ten on every list, with ESPN ranking him fourth overall. Keith Law has him at No. 8. The consensus is clear: when healthy and behind the plate, Basallo has as much offensive upside as any catching prospect in recent memory.

McDaniel notes that the Orioles “sent four players from their extensive farm depth to the Rays in the Shane Baz deal” but still “ranks seventh in quality depth.” That trade, which brought back the talented but oft-injured right-hander, represents the kind of calculus the Orioles have had to make as they try to balance building for the future with winning now.

Beyond Basallo, the evaluators identify Trey Gibson and Dylan Beavers as the other blue-chip pieces in the system. All three should see significant major league time in 2026—Basallo and Beavers essentially graduated last August and will be roster staples from Opening Day.

Law’s list differs somewhat from the others. He has five Orioles in his top 100: Basallo at No. 8, shortstop Wehiwa Aloy at No. 73, outfielder Nate George at No. 78, catcher/outfielder Ike Irish at No. 85, and outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. at No. 97. Notably absent from Law’s rankings is Beavers, who appeared at No. 21 on Baseball America’s list. Law is particularly enthusiastic about George, describing him as a player who “plays like his hair’s on fire” with “All-Star upside” if he can develop above-average power.

One recurring theme across the rankings is that the Orioles’ system is a bit thinner behind the top names than it used to be. That’s the natural consequence of a pipeline working exactly as intended. When Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez were all in the minors together, the system looked unstoppable. Now those players are either establishing themselves at the major league level, and not necessarily with the Orioles.

The executive poll is perhaps most telling here. When asked which teams “hoard prospects the most,” the Orioles have slid down the list—they used to be right at the top with Cleveland. Baltimore still appears in votes for best farm system and best at developing hitters, but the organization is no longer the unanimous choice it once was.

McDaniel offers some optimism on this front, noting “there’s a nice layer beyond them of nearly 20 prospects who could be in the top 200 prospects in the sport next winter.” Names like Luis De León, the 22-year-old lefty who dominated the Arizona Fall League, could be poised to rise. The system isn’t empty; it’s just younger than it was a few years ago.

The practical implications of these rankings matter less than the talent actually on the field. Basallo and Beavers will be in Baltimore fighting for Rookie of the Year honors, potentially earning the team an extra draft pick if either wins. Gibson and Bradfield are a level away and could debut this season. The pipeline, while not quite as loaded as it was during the peak rebuild years, continues to flow.

The Orioles also appear in one poll’s top for “best at developing hitters” and receive mention for their work on the international market. The organizational infrastructure that built this system remains intact, even as the headliners have moved on to Camden Yards.

Is 13th overall where Orioles fans want to see their farm system ranked? Probably not. But it’s worth remembering what that ranking represents: a system that has successfully graduated multiple All-Star caliber players while still retaining a top-five overall prospect in Basallo. The goal was never to have the best farm system in perpetuity—it was to build a sustainable winner.

The next wave is coming. It just might take a little longer to arrive than the last one did.

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Chris Sale
• Spencer Strider

The portent of the 2024 Atlanta Braves season being a morass of injuries was Sean Murphy getting hurt and leaving the first game of the season. The portent of the 2025 Atlanta Braves season being… really dumb and no fun was Jurickson Profar eating a PED suspension after the first series of the season.

By the time Profar came back, his new team was more or less dead in the water as far as playoff potential. Profar also didn’t really do anything to revive them — his 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which was only achieved due to a fair bit of xwOBA overperformance, was basically a bog-standard rate. It was better than Alex Verdugo, but it wasn’t actually good.

Career-to-date, status

Because he made his MLB debut at age 19, Profar has been around foooreeeeeveeeer, though his career was largely nondescript. He didn’t start sticking as a regular until 2018 (at age 25); he was replacement level in over 700 career PAs before that point. (A minorly funny thing was that he spent all of 2014 and 2015 in the minors. In 2013, he had 324 PAs and a 75 wRC+. In 2016, he had 307 PAs and a 75 wRC+. Heh.) After getting regular playing time, he largely oscillated between being an average regular and something worse. His aggregate hitting was fine, but he played poor defense at an already-low skill position, which tanked his value. He hit rock bottom in 2023, where his -1.6 fWAR was the worst mark among anyone in baseball. (He wasn’t the worst on a rate basis, though. For example, then-teammate Harold Castro managed -1.5 fWAR in just 270 PAs, while it took Profar 521 to “rack up” his -1.6 mark.)

Fortunately for Profar, he had a renaissance of sorts in 2024, as he broke out offensively (139 wRC+ without outhitting his xwOBA by any meaningful amount) and even went back to just plain bad defensively relative to his 2023. That, and potentially a lack of anything else to spend moolah on, led the Braves to sign him to a three-year, $42 million contract ahead of the 2025 season. The Braves “saved” about $6 million as a result of the PED suspension, but Profar is still owed $15 million in each of 2026 and 2027.

Recent performance

It’s hard to know what to make of Profar’s 2025, other than the fact that I guess, in the end, he more or less ended up where he was expected to be (rate-wise), just in a lot fewer games due to the suspension. The fact that it came with a big xwOBA overperformance could be a concern. Profar’s topline was a 122 wRC+ — better than any mark he achieved other than 2024 — and 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which is right around 2 WAR per 600 PAs. Unfortunately, Profar’s xwOBA was just .322 compared to a .346 wOBA; he actually had a higher xwOBA in each of 2018-2020. In addition, his defense ended up somewhere between the horrorshow that was 2023 (-13 OAA-based runs in about 800 innings) and the 2024 improvement (-6 in about 1,200 innings).

With fewer than 400 PAs and a lengthy layoff, it’s hard to read too much into Profar’s 2025 vis-a-vis his 2024. The key factor is that his big “discovery” from 2024, i.e., just whacking the snot out of the ball while continuing to make a high rate of contact, basically didn’t carry over. Profar’s well-above-average exit velocity from 2024, a total divergence from the slappy numbers he posted earlier in his career, once again declined to below-average in 2025, as did his hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate didn’t really change, and he continued to a walk a ton, like he did in 2024. He chased more than in 2024 but not any more than earlier in his career. He was more passive than before (like many of his teammates), and also made even more contact than before. Fundamentally, though, it’s hard to believe that he can regain something closer to 2024 without straight-up hitting the ball harder, and he absolutely did not hit it hard enough in 2025.

Forecasting

There’s nothing that weird in the point estimates below. You can compare then with the green stuff above. Profar will probably play a bit, and be average-y…

… at least, that’s the “safe” bet stochastically. In reality, while Profar’s ceiling isn’t super-high and it seems like he shouldn’t be a very variable outcome guy, the “problem” is that he has an absolute disaster scenario with reasonable weight (a la earlier in his career, and 2013), so the point estimate is dragged down by that in a way that just isn’t true for other players, who have some sort of skillset floor they can rely on. Basically, what I’m saying is that because Profar’s lows can get very low, when he gets a 1.5-2.0ish point estimate, that means there’s also a pretty good high on the other end to counterbalance. To wit:

Basically, there’s a substantially horrible tail on the left side that just kind of keeps going. If Profar had a “normal” stop-loss that didn’t involve a real chance that he’d be substantially below replacement and continue to get playing time anyway, his point estimate would be much higher.

But, he doesn’t, so what you get is this sort of bizarrely-skewed distribution where his mode outcome might be pretty close to his optimal (reasonable) outcome, yet the downside is just so bad that you can’t bank on him producing all that much. I have no idea if Steamer and ZiPS “think” something similar directly, but I do note that as far as ZiPS goes, his 20th percentile WAR is below replacement, where he’s joined only by Mauricio Dubon with that being the case. ZiPS, though, does have his 80th percentile WAR as being only slightly above 2, which is where IWAG totally diverges as you can see from the above.

Still, he’s basically “hit the ball hard again” away from being quite useful, and he already did it once, so… maybe? Please?

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Jurickson Profar produce in 2026?
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

Who is he and where did he come from?

He’s Nate Baez and he comes from Oro Valley, Arizona. Oro Valley looks like this:

…so I can only assume that baseball is Baez’s second career after robbing stagecoaches didn’t work out.

The Red Sox just acquired him from the Twins organization in exchange for Triston Gray — whose entire tenure with the Red Sox lasted all of two months in the middle of the offseason, and who will not be the next Romy Gonzalez after all.

What position does he play?

Baez was known for his defensive versatility in college at Arizona State, where he played every single position except for shortstop, center field, and right field. In the pros he’s split his time between catcher and first base.

Is he any good?

He’s better than you, but his professional destiny is probably that of an organizational catcher who might get a cup of coffee in the big leagues one day.

The 24-year-oldBaez reached AA for the first time in his career this past season, where he hit .237/.297/.400 with 5 homers in 51 games. The best part of his offensive game is probably his patience and batting eye. At the time of his promotion to AA last year, he was rocking a 17.4% walk rate in the single-A Midwest league, which would have been the second-best walk rate in the league had he qualified. But some statistical inflation is to be expected with players who are old for their level, and that rate dropped down to 6.1% in AA.

There isn’t much of a scouting report on him as a catcher yet, as, frankly, he hasn’t spent much time as a catcher. Since being drafted in 2022, he’s started a grand total of 110 games behind the plate, after catching just 46 games at Arizona State. But he did throw out 14 of 47 would-be base-stealers at AA last season, which is a pretty solid return for someone who doesn’t have much experience behind the plate.

Show me a cool highlight.

Though he’s only 25 total homers over 229 career minor leage games, Baez actually had two multi-homer games in 2024 alone. Here’s the second:

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

Getting ready to play third, because he heard the Sox might have an opening there…

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

While he’ll be at Spring Training, Baez is not currently on the 40-man roster and almost certainly will not have a role on the 2026 Red Sox. In fact, the primary motivation in the Gray-Baez swap was opening up a spot on the 40-man roster for Ranger Suárez. So in light of the fact that Craig Breslow managed to get some value in a situation in which he would have otherwise needed to DFA someone for nothing, it was a good deal, even if Baez never makes it to the big leagues. And who knows — catcher is the most demanding position and one that takes years to master, and Baez has effectively just begun his journey behind the plate. Maybe he’ll improve quickly and turn into a plus defensive player with a chance to have a career as a glove-first guy.