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For the next few weeks we’ll be doing some theorizing on optimal returns at the trade deadline as the Red Sox look to do another tear down amidst a hopeless season. This week, we kick things off with the flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman.

Ah, rumors. Chris Cotillo heard it from a veteran scout this week: two prospects back for Aroldis Chapman, one of them a top-100 type. That’s only the floor. Bob Nightengale—though we can trust him as much as any bizzaro world character we can—has him rated as the top reliever on every contender’s board. With a 2.08 ERA and 14 saves (not surprising considering how many losses this squad has)— but still 378 in his long career (closing in on the all-time record), the market isn’t treating him like a rental. It’s treating him like the best available. For a 38 year old?! Ok.

The teams making headlines for Chapman are the Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies. In my opinion, there are five realistic suitors. Here’s what Breslow shudder should be targeting from each one.

Dodgers

River Ryan (RHP) + Chase Harlan (3B)

Of course the team that has all the money and continues to assemble super teams in the 2020s wants to add a flamethrower to their bullpen. The problem with the Dodgers is their best stuff is the stuff Boston doesn’t need. De Paula (#8), Hope (#17), Quintero (#34) land as their top three prospects…they’re all outfielders. The Red Sox have an outfield logjam that isn’t getting cleared any time soon between Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, the list goes on and on.

The package I’d push for snakes past all of that: River Ryan (#75, RHP) as the top-100 piece, plus Chase Harlan, an unranked third baseman quietly posting a 1.025 OPS with ten home runs through the first half. Ryan adds projectable front-end rotation depth the organization can actually use, especially in a right-hander. Harlan is the kind of raw power bat you stockpile when you don’t know who your future third baseman is (yes, I know we have Caleb Durbin, but keeping him at third feels like a giant mistake; I see him at second and slotting Mayer back to SS but that’s another piece). Do you hate trading with the new evil empire, the team that makes EVERYONE ELSE look bad? Yeah. Still, having one of the best farm systems in baseball to root from—and Boston still gets what it actually needs out of it? Fine.

Mariners

Ryan Sloan (RHP) + Luke Stevenson (C)

The most specific package out there has Luke Stevenson at the center. I’d flip it. Make Ryan Sloan (#33 Pipeline, #7 BA) the headliner and let Stevenson come with him. Sloan is a top-35 arm, one of the better pitching prospects in the AL right now. Stevenson fills a specific gap—a left-handed bat behind the plate at a position the Sox are thin at long-term behind Carlos Narváez. Do you really trust Connor Wong and Micky Gaspar long term? I don’t think so. This package does real work: pitching depth plus positional coverage at a premium spot. If Seattle is serious about October, they know the price. They have the system to pay it. Adding in Chapman to Andres Muñoz would be a scary punch.

Phillies

Gage Wood (RHP) + Aroon Escobar (2B)

The Phillies puzzle me. They always seem to be one or two pieces away and never hit their marks at the deadline. Is that a Dombo issue? Who knows. What Philadelphia does have is Gage Wood—70-grade fastball, tied with Andrew Painter (who isn’t moving), power curve that gives him mid-rotation upside or a high-leverage floor depending on how he develops. Baseball Prospectus has him at 66. He’s at Single-A, so he’s a few years away but a lot of room to rise. Aroon Escobar (2B, Double-A, 21) rounds out the package. Of the five teams in this conversation, the Phillies return is the thinnest and Breslow knows that going in. They can close this deal—just at a discount. I do remember the last time the Red Sox sent pitching pieces to the Phillies at the deadline…I think it worked out better for Boston, eh? (Nick Pivetta for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree)

Braves

Cam Caminiti (LHP)

Nobody’s writing about Atlanta, and they should be. The bullpen has been inconsistent all year—even with Raisel Iglesias dominating as closer—and Chapman is the kind of arm contenders acquire when they want an answer at the back of a postseason roster—not depth, a second closer who can step in at any time. Cam Caminiti (#44) is the top-100 piece: 2024 first-rounder, touched 98, six-pitch mix, front-of-the-rotation ceiling. His breaking stuff kinda blurs together but the Red Sox pitching lab might be the best place to find that differentiation point. JR Ritchie debuted in April and would have been a piece I wanted: seven pitches, 93-95 mph with two fastball shapes, control refined enough to handle high-leverage innings. Tantalizing. But off the list. Boston already has Early and Tolle as elite lefties, so Caminiti is a depth add rather than a direct need-fill. That’s fine. You can say yes to depth packages like this one.

Padres

Ethan Salas (C) + Kruz Schoolcraft (LHP)

This is the one to watch. Ethan Salas was the eighth-best prospect in baseball before a back injury wiped out his 2025. He’s at Double-A San Antonio this year slashing .320/.396/.546 with five home runs through 28 games, climbing 90 spots in the rankings since the season started. Elite defensive catcher, left-handed bat, real pop. If Boston was drawing up their ideal long-term power piece behind Contreras, this is the profile. Pair him with Kruz Schoolcraft—6-foot-8 lefty, taken 25th overall in 2025, fastball already in the high 90s—and San Diego has assembled the most compelling package in this conversation. A rebounding top-10 talent at a premium position, plus a recent first-round arm who’s going to be very good. I know I just said having a lefty in this package seems redundant with Caminiti, but Schoolcraft intrigues the hell out of me. Only way I would take him out is if the Red Sox draft Brody Bumila in this year’s draft. I also know the Padres have Mason Miller closing, but again, you need all the scary you get come October.

If Breslow is doing this to win, San Diego’s scenario is the one worth chasing hardest to me, followed by Seattle. Salas is a potential cornerstone. The Mariners package is the most balanced return—Sloan is a top-35 arm and Stevenson fills a real gap.

Breslow has the leverage here having the asset everyone seems to want. Is he smart enough to part with it and get the right value back? Less sold on that. Still, this is absolutely worth tracking in the weeks ahead in this lost season.

Two months into the season, Mookie Betts had missed over a month of time due to an oblique issue and was posting by far the worst offensive numbers of his entire career.

While sluggers at the top of the lineup like Shohei Ohtani and Andy Pages have mired in a funk over the last two weeks, Mookie Betts has ascended into the same hitter that fans were used to seeing in 2022 and 2023. Betts added his third home run in as many games during the Dodgers’ nine-run sixth inning on Saturday against the San Diego Padres, and over his last 13 games he is slashing .358/.407/.698 with five home runs and nine RBI.

Betts had primarily been the no. 2 hitter in the Dodgers lineup until he was slotted to cleanup on May 26 against the Colorado Rockies and has since remained there. That spot in the Dodgers lineup has been one of the weakest so far, notes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, and with Betts and Pages headed in opposite trajectories, another mixup could be in store.

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Kyle Tucker was an instrumental part of the Dodgers nine-run sixth inning on Saturday, crushing a two-run home run against Randy Vásquez and finishing the game 3-5 with four RBI.

Year 1 as a Dodger has not been kind for the All-Star outfielder, who entered Saturday’s contest with just a .700 OPS on the season, but he proved himself as a viable piece in the lineup and he spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA about the three-hit game.

“I didn’t love my swing tonight. The homer, I caught the ball at the right point of contact. The other ones, I got inside the ball a little bit and I got them over to left [field] over the infielder, so it just kind of works out sometimes.”

As soon as Roki Sasaki looked like he was starting to find his stride at the big league level, the ugly habits returned, as the right-hander has posted a combined 8.36 ERA over his last three starts, most recently allowing three runs and five walks against the Padres on Friday.

Sasaki acknowledged that he wasn’t able to execute his pitches in his preferred manner, and with his next start also coming against San Diego, he’ll attempt to create a more effective game plan, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“I’m not going to have it every time out, so that’s something I have to improve. And also the gameplan,” Sasaki said. “I was able to execute some of the pitches, but some of the pitches I couldn’t, so that’s something I have to go through before next start.”

Luis Lara looked like he had solved the biggest question surrounding his prospect profile.

Through May 6, the recently extended outfield prospect had already hit seven home runs, shattering his previous career-high of four. It looked like he’d finally unlocked his power.

Nearly two months later, he still has exactly seven home runs.

March 27–May 6: 7 HR, 4 2B, 1 3B

May 7–June 27: 0 HR, 5 2B, 1 3B

The initial surge vaulted Lara up prospect rankings. Baseball America now ranks him No. 52 in all of baseball, while MLB Pipeline has him No. 89. Yet Pipeline still grades his power as just a 40 on the 20–80 scouting scale, well behind his 70-grade defense and 60-grade arm and speed.

So which version of Lara should Brewers fans believe? Was his early-season power surge real? To answer that question, we need to look beyond the home run totals and into Lara’s underlying Statcast data.

As the Brewers saw during their recent series in Las Vegas, Triple-A environments can be considerably more favorable for hitters than major league parks. Home run totals alone don’t necessarily tell the whole story. To determine whether Lara’s early power surge represented a legitimate change in skill, we need to look beneath the results.

Thanks to the recent expansion of Statcast to Triple-A, we can do exactly that. Lara’s batted-ball data provides four useful indicators of raw power: average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

Average Exit Velocity: 80.68 mph

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 99.4 mph

Maximum Exit Velocity: 109 mph

Hard-hit Rate: 20.72%

At first glance, Lara’s Statcast profile doesn’t scream plus raw power. His average exit velocity is below average, and his 90th-percentile exit velocity is solid rather than elite. On the other hand, his 109-mph maximum exit velocity shows the raw strength is there when he squares the ball up.

The disconnect is consistency. Lara’s 20.7% hard-hit rate is well below the roughly 33% major league average, suggesting he currently doesn’t produce loud contact often enough to project as a true power hitter.

Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as one struck at least 95 mph because that’s where offensive production begins to spike. Leaguewide, balls hit at least 95 mph produce dramatically better results than those hit below that threshold. In 2023, hitters batted .506 on hard-hit balls compared to just .221 on all other balls, which is why hard-hit rate has become one of the most useful indicators of a hitter’s ability to consistently drive the baseball.

Lara’s hard-hit rate sits at just 20.7%, well below the roughly 33% mark that represents a typical major league average. In other words, while Lara has demonstrated that he can hit the ball exceptionally hard, he simply hasn’t done so often enough for the data to suggest a meaningful change in his underlying power profile.

The ideal comparison would be Lara’s Statcast profile this season versus last season. Unfortunately, he spent all of last year in Double-A, and Statcast data from that level isn’t publicly available.

Instead, we can compare the two very different halves of Lara’s 2026 season: the six-week stretch in which he hit seven home runs and the seven-week drought that followed. That split offers the clearest window into whether anything actually changed beneath the surface.

March 27 – May 6:

Average Exit Velocity: 83 mph

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 100.2 mph

Maximum Exit Velocity: 109 mph

Hard-hit Rate: 28.25%

May 7 – June 27:

Average Exit Velocity: 80.05 mph

90th Percentile Exit Velocity: 98.9 mph

Maximum Exit Velocity: 108.5 mph

Hard-hit Rate: 18.34%

Lara’s average, 90th-percentile, and maximum exit velocities didn’t change drastically.

What jumps out is his hard-hit rate, which dropped by roughly one-third. Combined with his average exit velocity falling nearly three mph, it suggests that while the shape of Lara’s contact remained largely unchanged, the quality of that contact declined. But why?

My first thought was that perhaps Lara’s launch angle had changed. It hadn’t. His average launch angle fell from 19 degrees before May 7 to just 18 degrees afterward — a negligible difference.

Next, I wondered whether Lara had changed his approach at the plate, sacrificing power for contact. The numbers don’t support that idea either. Through May 6, he struck out 18 times in 123 plate appearances (14.6%). Since then, he’s struck out 25 times in 172 plate appearances (14.5%). His batting average also remained remarkably consistent, dropping only from .333 to .324.

Finally, I considered whether the power outage could simply be the product of bad luck. If that were the case, one would expect fewer balls in play to fall for hits. Instead, the opposite happened. Lara’s BABIP actually increased from .347 before May 7 to .391 afterward, suggesting that balls in play were becoming hits more often, not less.

The biggest change appears to be in Lara’s approach at the plate. His first-pitch strike rate — the percentage of plate appearances that began with an 0-1 count — rose from 38.9% to 44.8%, almost exactly mirroring the increase in his overall swing rate (38.3% to 43.2%). His chase rate climbed slightly, his contact rate dipped slightly, and his in-zone swing rate jumped from 57.6% to 63.9%.

All things considered, those numbers suggest Lara became more aggressive after his power surge. Pitchers weren’t attacking the strike zone any more frequently, and aside from a modest decrease in fastballs, they weren’t pitching him that differently. Instead, Lara appears to have expanded his swing decisions. Because he’s such a good contact hitter, that added aggression didn’t translate into more strikeouts or a lower batting average. It may, however, have led him to swing at pitches he was less likely to drive.

If that’s the case, the issue isn’t that Lara’s raw power disappeared. It’s that he stopped getting to it as consistently. The underlying strength is still there; the challenge now is being selective enough to access it more often.

As I wrote about last week, even if Lara never develops into a 20-home-run hitter, extending him was still a good idea. A plus defender in center field with elite speed, excellent bat-to-ball skills, and an above-average on-base profile has plenty of value on his own.

The encouraging part is that the raw power doesn’t appear to be missing — it simply isn’t showing up consistently. Lara has already demonstrated that he can drive the baseball at 109 mph, an exit velocity that few players reach by accident. The challenge isn’t adding strength; it’s learning to produce that kind of contact more often by continuing to make quality swing decisions.

That’s one reason the extension makes sense. Milwaukee has built one of baseball’s strongest player-development systems by helping talented hitters maximize the tools they already possess. Lara already has the bat speed to produce 109-mph exit velocities. If the Brewers can help him pair that raw power with more consistent swing decisions, there’s another level for his offensive game to reach. And if they can’t, his defense, speed, and contact ability still give him the profile of an everyday major leaguer.

Let’s dive into the action!

Lehigh Valley 8, Syracuse 6

The IronPigs score six runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to take the 8-6 lead that would go onto be the final score. Kolby Allard threw 5.1 innings of 6-hit, 3-run ball. Old friend Tanner Banks struggles in his 1.1 innings of ball with 3 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks. The offense had the long ball working with Dylan Moore (3), Bryan De La Cruz (12), Dylan Carlsson (5), and Rene Pinto (1) all mashing one. Shockingly Felix Reyes DID NOT hit one tonight, go figure.

Reading 14, Altoona 5

In one of Jean Cabrera’s best outings of the season, he goes 4 innings giving up only 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks. Progress! Like the IronPigs, the ball was flying out of the park up in Altoona with Luke Ritter (1,2), Bryan Rincon (11), Raylin Heredia (14), Alex Binelas (18) and Bryson Ware (13) all sharing in the glory.

Brooklyn 9, Jersey Shore 1

A rough one all-around for the BlueClaws as Tanner Gresham and Titan Kennedy-Hayes combine giving up 8 runs (6 earned) over 6.1 innings. Devin Saltiban was 2 for 4 on the night and Tyler Pettorini had the only extra-base hit for Jersey Shore.

Clearwater 17, Jupiter 6

Somehow the Threshers scored 17 runs and only had one homer (a two-run shot from Griffin Burkholder, his 7th). They had 7 run first inning and a 6 run 7th innings. Ryan Degges started the game on rehab, giving up 1 run in 2 innings of work. Zuher Yousuf pitched the bulk of the game with 4 innings of work, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks.

Today’s Reflections

Jacob Misiorowski. Sheesh. Why can’t the Cubs find and develops guys with just 80 percent of his ability (because there’s no possibility of hitting 100 percent because he’s a freak (respectively)).

Kudos to Seiya Suzuki for picking out a 90 mile per hour slider and sending it over the wall. And for Colin Rea’s yeoman performance by finishing five innings of work, allowing just one run out of eight baserunners and striking out four.

But – the bullpen. Ethan Roberts blew a save (in the sixth) and Jayden Murray allowed a home run to blow the game open. These men would be used in mop-up duty in a normal Cubs bullpen, but it is what it is. They need help here as much as starting pitching.

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Stories from Friday’s game:

• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Cubs undone by Miz’s heat, near-triple play turned Brewers rally. “The third pitch that the Cubs saw from Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski on Friday night made it clear just how difficult the task at hand would be for the hitters.”
• Sean Hammond (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs bullpen crumbles in 6-2 loss — while Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski touches 105.5 mph. “The Chicago Cubs bullpen surrendered two late home runs in a 6-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, falling 7½ games behind the division leaders.”

Let’s see if there are any injuries on the Cubs’ pitching staff, shall we?:

• Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): That’s, Uh, Probably for the Best: Phil Maton Gets Another Stint on the IL. “With the Cubs, this year, it just isn’t going well. And now, he’ll hit the Injured List for the second time.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Hoby Milner to IL, Tyler Ferguson Recalled. “The Cubs have placed reliever Hoby Milner on the IL with appendicitis, which was probably caused by pitching way too often.”
• Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): Try to Laugh Before You Cry: Hoby Milner to the Injured List. “I know there’s an instinct to blame the Cubs training staff for the, at this point, HISTORIC volume and rate of pitching injuries this staff has sustained, but most of these things aren’t even close to something within their control.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Why Cubs’ Ben Brown sees injury as blessing in disguise, even amid threat to him starting again this season. “The Cubs righty has a stress fracture in a vertebrae in his neck, and it turns out that’s the same injury he suffered in 2024. Armed with that knowledge, he sees a much more efficient recovery than the mystery of two years ago.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Ben Brown explains stress reaction in neck and 2024 misdiagnosis — and another Chicago Cubs pitcher goes on IL. “The weirdness around a 2024 neck injury that cost Chicago Cubs right-hander Ben Brown the final 3½ months of the season has gained unexpected clarity two years later.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): With more clarity, Brown feeling optimistic about latest neck setback. “Milner the latest Cubs pitcher heading to IL after emergency appendectomy.”

Assorted Stories:

• Nick Deeds (Cubbies Crib): 2 Cubs players who looked broken are showing needed signs of life at the perfect time. “Are they finally back?”
• Mike McGraw (Daily Herald): The Milwaukee mystery: Brewer Ball is real, and a huge problem for Cubs. “This was supposed to be the year the Cubs wouldn’t have to worry about the Brewers anymore, right?”
• Anthony Kerr (Da Windy City): Pete Crow-Armstrong’s absence from the All-Star ballot is a slap in the face to both him and the Cubs. “Major League Baseball’s All-Star voting format once again shows the faults of fan voting, leaving Chicago’s superstar and the NL’s 2nd most valuable player off of the final ballots.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs hope change of scenery will get newly acquired lefty David Peterson nearer to All-Star form. “Peterson was an All-Star last season. But since heading to the Midsummer Classic, his results have been poor. The Cubs are hopeful a new look for Peterson, who’s only ever played in the Mets’ organization, will turn things around.”
• Joey Mistretta (Clutch Points): Cubs’ David Peterson drops bold claim after Mets trade. “David Peterson made a bold claim while speaking to reporters after getting traded from the Mets to the Cubs.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): Cubs hoping change-of-scenery trade will help unlock David Peterson after time in New York. “Peterson, a first-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, says “it’s hard not to be excited” about pitching in front of the Cubs’ defense.”

Food For Thought:

Albert Collins (October 1, 1932 – November 24, 1993) was an American electric blues guitarist and singer with a distinctive guitar style. He was noted for his powerful playing and his use of altered tunings and a capo. His long association with the Fender Telecaster led to the title “The Master of the Telecaster”.

Robert Cray (born August 1, 1953) is an American blues guitarist and singer. He has led his own band and won five Grammy Awards. By the age of 20, Cray had seen his heroes Albert Collins, Freddie King and Muddy Waters in concert and decided to form his own band. Two albums on HighTone Records in the mid-1980s, Bad Influence and False Accusations, were moderately successful in the United States and in Europe, where he was building a reputation as a live artist.[4] In 1985, he released the album Showdown! with his hero Albert Collins and Johnny Copeland.

John Copeland (March 27, 1937 – July 3, 1997) was an American Texas blues guitarist and singer. In 1983, he was named Blues Entertainer of the Year by the Blues Foundation. He is the father of blues singer Shemekia Copeland. In 2017, Copeland was posthumously inducted into the Blues Hall of Fame.

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Hunter Goodman is having a fairly different season than he did when he was an All-Star in 2025. He’s chasing and striking out more and hitting less for average. The trade-off is that the 26-year-old catcher is obliterating baseballs at an alarming pace.

Between Friday and Saturday, Goodman hit four home runs. He hit home runs in three straight at-bats, and hit three home runs on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. He became the 21st player in Rockies history to hit three home runs in a game.

What’s more wild about Goodman’s season is that the bulk of the damage is coming away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. After Saturday, his 18 home runs on the road prior to the All-Star Game are the most in franchise history. This sets him above Larry Walker, who hit 16 home runs before the break in his 1997 MVP campaign.

Goodman now has 25 home runs this season. He is the fourth catcher in Major League history to have 25 or more home runs before the All-Star Game, and the first to do it since Hall of Famer Johnny Bench in 1970 with 28. There are 15 games left for the Rockies to play before the break, and Goodman will have the chance to pass catchers Iván Rodríguez (26) and Bench for their pre-break home run totals. He can also become the first Rockies player in franchise history to hit 30 or more home runs before the break.

Recently we explored the idea of trading Hunter Goodman as part of the Rockies’ rebuild. However, fans were in agreement that Goodman is one to keep and build around for the future. With him proving his 31 home run season in 2025 wasn’t a fluke and performing more than adequately behind the plate–and getting excellent results from ABS challenges while doing so–Hunter Goodman might be proving a perfect piece to build around.

With that being said, here’s what our staff here at Purple Row had to say this week:

To Read: Rockpiles

• Monday:Yuto Sakurai reflects on his career as an interpreter for Japanese MLB players | Sam Bradfield
• Tuesday:Rockies general manager Josh Byrnes discusses pitching, the draft, and promotions | Renee Dechert
• Wednesday:The good, the bad, and the ugly halfway through the 2026 season | Skyler Timmins
• Thursday:The Rockies historic home/road splits | Cory Cohen
• Friday:Could Cole Carrigg be the clutch player the Rockies have been waiting for? | Joelle Milholm
• Saturday:Do not adjust your screens: The Human Glitch is working  | James Riggenbach

To Read: News

• Rockies news:Drew and Zach Goodman are relishing the ‘rare and unique’ opportunity to broadcast together on Father’s Day | Sam Bradfield
• Rockies roster:Rockies reinstate Mickey Moniak, option Sterlin Thompson | Sam Bradfield
• Weekly Pebble Report:Ethan Hedges got the hard part out of the way | Eli Whitney
• Rockies injuries:Chase Dollander undergoes surgery for an internal brace | Renee Dechert
• Rockies injuries:Rockies place RHP Jaden Hill on IL, recall RHP Seth Halvorsen | Evan Lang
• Rockies analysis:The 2026 Colorado Rockies my dad would have loved | Skyler Timmins
• Rockies news:“It’s ill-advised”: A farewell to Patrick Saunders | Eli Whitney

Weekly Discussion Topics

Back near the end of 2022, I praised Hunter Goodman as an unsung prospect who could even stick around as a catcher if the Rockies didn’t choose to move him to first base or the outfield. Nearly four years later, Goodman is one of the Rockies’ most valuable players and appears to be on track to become a franchise great.

Who is a prospect you ended up being right about–for better or for worse–in Rockies history? Let us know in the comments!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!