Rays GDT: Get your right handed pitchers in while you still can, folks!

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 9: Griffin Jax #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on September 9, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Go Rays!

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Dodgers at Reds game chat

Sep 14, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker (23) reacts after hitting a solo home run in the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Dodgers are four for four against the Reds this year, all in the previous eight days. On Tuesday night they try a drive for five.

Tuesday game info

  • Teams: Dodgers at Reds
  • Ballpark: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
  • Start time: 3:40 p.m. PT
  • TV: SportsNet LA
  • Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Game Thread: White Sox (77-73) at Guardians (76-75)

HOUSTON, TEXAS - AUGUST 31: Randal Grichuk #34 of the Chicago White Sox bats in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on August 31, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Randal Grichuk is batting second tonight, and is slashing .339/.383/.677 in 133 PAs against left-handed pitchers. | (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Leave it to the White Sox to save all of the dramatics for the end of the season. The South Side offense finally came back to life in Monday’s series opener against the Guardians, allowing Chicago to not only secure a win when it severely needed, but give it the tiebreaker against Cleveland on the season series as the rivals battle through an AL Central division race that is way too close for comfort.

Of course, we as Sox fans can continue to relish even getting to play meaningful baseball games after three (four, really) disappointing seasons, but I’m sure many can agree that coming up short after such an exciting, magical season would be a gut-punch. Thankfully, the South Siders have put themselves in a great position to close out the division race with the tiebreaker, but defeating the Guardians outright is the best way to ensure they can snag a spot in the postseason.

Before we dive into the lineups for tonight’s game, let’s check in on some roster updates. After Monday’s game, the White Sox announced that righthander Tyler Davis was reinstated from the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency list, but was optioned back to the Triple-A Charlotte Knights. The righty has been mostly solid out of the bullpen despite a rough few outings in June, and in 29 games (30 2/3 innings) with the big league club, Davis has posted a 3.52 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP alongside a .190 opponent batting average. He’s also scoreless in his last eight outings (eight IP) dating back to June 20, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see Davis again this season.

The biggest news of the day is that the South Siders have recalled left-handed pitcher Noah Schultz from Triple-A and designated José Urquidy for assignment as the corresponding move. In six games (22 1/3 frames) for the White Sox the righty posted a 2-1 record and a 4.37 ERA, which looks much better on paper than the performance in real life. Despite a couple decent outings, and one incredible performance at Wrigley Field during the Crosstown Classic, Urquidy has been a bit of a loose cannon both as a starter and out of the bullpen. It’s unclear if Urquidy will clear waivers or what the next steps are there, but bringing Schultz up could be key with a struggling starting rotation.

In 15 outings with the White Sox, Schultz had accumulated a 6.06 ERA prior to being demoted to Triple-A, but in his last five starts for the Knights, he’s surrendered just three earned across his 21 2/3 innings with 10 Ks.

As for tonight’s game, lefthander Chris Murphy will be the opener in the second game of the series in Cleveland. The Good Guys are leveraging an opener in back-to-back games, as Davis Martin will own the bulk role on Tuesday. Using an opener while running a rough right-handed heavy lineup in a playoff race feels entirely unserious, but to Will Venable’s credit the White Sox absolutely suck at pitching in the first inning. As a team, the White Sox pitching staff ranks as the fourth-worst ERA (5.58), third-highest opponent SLG (.492) in baseball, and have surrendered the second-most home runs in the first inning of games.

When looking at every other inning, the White Sox hold the 10th-best ERA (3.92), opponent batting average (.237), and opponent SLG (.383). We can’t be sure what causes them to implode so much early, but perhaps we should just stop questioning the opener at this point, especially considering how great Sean Burke was in Monday’s matchup after a horrific outing in the start prior.

Murphy holds a 3.94 ERA in his 31 appearances (32 innings), and has worked as an opener two other times this season. Unlike the dominance that Sean Newcomb has displayed in pretty much every situation, Murphy hasn’t been as strong when used as an opener. While it’s a small, two-inning sample size, Murphy has posted a 13.50 ERA and surrendered three earned runs on three hits, including a home run and a double.

Righthander Davis Martin has solely pitched as a starter this season, holding a 4.05 ERA in 26 outings and 135 2/3 innings. Davis had started to struggled in July, and those struggles persisted into August, posting a 14.63 ERA in three outings before landing on the IL. Since being reactivated this month though, Martin holds a 0.84 ERA in his last pair of starts, tossing for at least five frames both times (10 2/3 total) and letting up just one run, on a solo homer against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week.

Given the left-handed Foster Griffin is making the start for the Guardians, the South Siders are rolling with their right-handed lineup — not their strongest. Chase Meidroth slots into the leadoff spot, essentially swapping places in the lineup with Sam Antonacci, who is batting sixth. Meidroth does hold the highest OPS (.859) among White Sox leadoff hitters, however, and is slashing .273/.359/.500 in 170 PAs.

The lefty-mashing Randal Grichuk will slide into the 2-hole, which is very apt considering his 1.061 OPS in 133 PAs against them, along with nine homers and 21 RBIs. After a bit of a rough week defensively, Colson Montgomery is getting a needed game off, and Luisangel Acuña will take over at shortstop and bat eighth. My one real gripe with tonight’s batting order is that Brenton Doyle is batting fifth in a playoff race, and he should really never bat higher than eighth, if at all, considering how he’s been at the plate.

Chicago White Sox Lineup

Griffin will make his 29th start of the season, posting a 3.65 cumulative ERA across 162 2/3 innings this season. Prior to getting traded to the Guardians, Griffin held a 3.06 ERA in 22 outings with the Washington Nationals. However, he’s not been as strong since being dealt to Cleveland. In his last seven outings with the Guardians, the lefty owns a 5.94 ERA in 33 1/3 innings with a 1.59 WHIP and elevated .299 opponent BA. Griffin is coming off a brutal outing against the Baltimore Orioles in which he yielded eight earned runs, so it would be fabulous if the South Siders could attack early and pile up some runs behind their pitchers.

For the most part, Cleveland’s batting order is similar to Monday’s series opener, though Travis Bazzana will DH today while Angel Genao takes over at second base. Chase DeLauter is also getting a night off after a tough offensive performance yesterday where he grounded into not one, but two identical double plays to bail the White Sox out of some jams. The Good Guys were able to hold off the top of the order quite a bit yesterday, but both Steven Kwan and José Ramírez are known to beat up on the Sox, so it’s still going to be a challenge to keep them from mashing the ball.

Cleveland Guardians Lineup

It looks like it should be a beautiful evening for an AL Central battle, with temperatures in the low-80s and clear skies. We have another earlier game lined up, with first pitch taking place at 5:40 p.m. CT at Progressive Field. Tune into CHSN for the TV broadcast, or listen in on the radio at ESPN Chicago AM 1000. Time to snag a series W.

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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Thread

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 13: Jacob Young #30 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammates after scoring in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Nationals Park on September 13, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Nats get a chance to play spoiler in a midweek showdown with the Phillies. After a sweep of the Angels, the boys are riding high. However, they will be facing tougher opposition this week. The Nats will need to avoid some of the mistakes and tighten things up if they want another sweep.

For some reason both James Wood and CJ Abrams are out of the lineup today. The Phillies do have a lefty on the mound, but those two have been everyday players all season long. Daylen Lile is also out of the lineup. That means the outfield is Andrew Pinckney, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews. Nasim Nunez is back in the fold as the starting shortstop. Jackson Kent will be on the mound tonight.

We know most of the big names in this Phillies lineup. The top 3 of Schwarber, Turner and Harper is well established. Luis Arraez has been a good fit in the cleanup spot as well. Nationals killer Derek Hill is at the bottom of the order and in center field. Ace Cristopher Sanchez will be on the bump.

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Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 6:45 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

Without Abrams or Wood, offense will be tough to come by. However, if we can keep the game close early on, those two and Lile can be threats off the bench. Being a spoiler should be a role we embrace and it starts tonight. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

WHITE SOX AT GUARDIANS: Griffin vs. Martin, discussion

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 14: Brayan Rocchio #4 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts after being caught stealing second base during the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on September 14, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Discuss the game below

Rockies reinstate Kyle Freeland from 15-day IL; make additional roster moves

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 19: Kyle Freeland #21 of the Colorado Rockies pitches during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Casey Paul/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Colorado Rockies announced today that they have reinstated LHP Kyle Freeland from the 15-day injured list ahead of this evening’s game against the San Diego Padres.

Freeland was originally placed on the IL on August 24 after suffering from cervical radiculopathy (a pinched nerve in his neck). The injury occurred on August 19 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, after Freeland threw just 3.2 innings and allowed four runs on six hits with two homers, a walk and two strikeouts. He will start tonight’s game and should be able to pitch two more games in 2026 — one at home and one on the road.

To make room for Freeland, RHP Blas Castaño has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque. Castaño was recalled from the Isotopes when the rosters expanded on September 1, and made five appearances in September. Across 6.2 innings, he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits with three walks and four strikeouts.

In addition, the Rockies did some shuffling in the field.

Catcher/DH Braxton Fulford was recalled and infielder Vimael Machín was optioned. Machín was brought up on September 5 and played in three games for the Rockies. In those three games, he went 3-for-6 with two strikeouts.

Fulford returns to the majors after being optioned on August 25. In 13 games with the Isotopes in that span, Fulford has gone 10-for-49 (.204) with two doubles, three home runs, six RBI, two walks and 17 strikeouts. In 43 games with the Rockies this year, Fulford has slashed just .174/.253/.275 with four doubles, one home run, 12 runs scored, seven RBI, seven walks and 31 strikeouts.


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Mets vs. Orioles: Lineups, broadcast info, and open thread, 9/15/26

Sean Manaea #59 of the New York Mets delivers the pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Citi Field on August 27, 2026 in New York City.

Mets lineup

Francisco Lindor – SS
Juan Soto – LF
Bo Bichette – 3B
Carson Benge – RF
Jared Young – 1B
Marcus Semien – 2B
A.J. Ewing – CF
Brett Baty – DH
Francisco Alvarez – C

SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)

Orioles lineup

Rece Hinds – LF
Pete Alonso – 1B
Coby Mayo – DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B
Gunnar Henderson – SS
Jeremiah Jackson – 2B
Yohel Pozo – C
Leody Taveras – RF
Colton Cowser – CF

SP: Shane Baz (RHP)

Broadcast info

First pitch: 7:10 PM EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

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Carlos Correa's 2026 Astros comeback bid ends in Houston injury update

The Astros are heading into the stretch run of the AL West race with the infield they already have, not the one they hoped they would. Manager Joe Espada told reporters Tuesday that Carlos Correa will not return this season, closing the door on a comeback that four days earlier had Houston's front office mapping out where to play him.

Espada told reporters that Correa did not have a setback, but the workload to get back into game shape was too much for a season that has less than two weeks left.

Correa tore the peroneus brevis tendon in his left ankle in May, a tendon that helps stabilize the outside of the ankle, and needed surgery. He had played just 32 games, with three home runs, 16 RBI and a .369 on-base percentage. He was told then that his season was over, but he chose not to believe it.

He kept working his way back: running the bases, taking live batting practice and fielding ground balls through the summer. On Sept. 12, a report had the Astros planning to bring him back at second base rather than third, a move that would have pushed Jose Altuve to DH and left Jeremy Pena at shortstop and Isaac Paredes at third.

That plan is dead now.

Houston leads the American League West with a 75-75 record heading into Tuesday night's games, clinging to a division lead more than running away with it. Correa's second half was supposed to help them hold on. Instead, the infield that's gotten them this far is the infield they will go into October with.

Correa is still owed $31.5 million this season on the six-year, $200 million deal he originally signed with the Twins, though Minnesota is covering roughly $10 million of it annually as part of the trade that sent him back to Houston. The man who made the trade to bring back Correa won't be around this October, either.

Owner Jim Crane pushed out Dana Brown on Aug. 24, weeks after Crane reportedly killed a deadline deal Brown wanted for outfielder Trevor Larnach. Crane is running baseball operation himself now, the job split across three assistant GMs and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Carlos Correa's 2026 Astros comeback bid ends in Houston injury update

Another Acuña DH day, Brewer Hicklin starts in right as Braves continue series at Cubs

Aug 26, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Brewer Hicklen (53) rounds second base against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Colin Hubbard-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Braves have managed Ronald Acuña Jr. carefully since his return from a second injured list stint this season due to a left hamstring strain

That plan has included mixing in days for Acuña as designated hitter, a role he will fill for the second time in three days when the Braves continue their three-game series at the Chicago Cubs Tuesday at 7:40 p.m. EDT.

Mauricio Dubón is also back at shortstop and hitting fifth, while Brewer Hicklen makes a somewhat rare start, hitting ninth and playing right field for Game 2 of the series.

Also of note, Ozzie Albies is down to the eighth spot in the batting order against a right-handed starting pitcher for Chicago.

The Cubs waited until nearly 6 p.m. EDT (over two hours after the Braves’ lineup was posted) to release their lineup.

No major surprises in there. Michael Busch drops from third to sixth against a left-handed starter. Tyrone Taylor, acquired from the Mets in the David Peterson trade, is batting cleanup and playing left field. Matt Shaw replaces Michael Conforto as DH in the seven-hole, and Miguele Amaya replaces at the bottom of the lineup and behind the plate.

The active Braves have a combined 100 career at-bats against Cubs starter Kevin Gausman, hitting .240 against him with just three walks and 22 strikeouts. The slugging percentage, though, is a more respectable. 450.

Of Atlanta’s six all-time homers against the right-hander, Matt Olson (6-for-19) has three of them, making this a possible night for him to hit homer No. 40. Austin Riley (4-for-9, one homer), Dubón (3-for-9, one homer) and Mike Yastrzemski (3-for-9, one homer) have all had success against Gausman as well, while Albies (1-for-7), Michael Harris II (2-for-9) and Ha-Seong Kim (0-for-6) have had less.

Of the Cubs’ hitters 77 all-time at-bats against Braves starter Martín Pérez, Alex Bregman has over half of them (42, to be exact). He’s 10-for-42 (.238) against Pérez with just one extra-base hit (a double) and one RBI. However, he does have a 373 on-base percentage behind nearly twice as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (five).

Overall, Chicago’s hitters are 15-for-77 (.195) against Perez. No one has had much success against him, with Taylor (2-for-7) posting the best batting average against him at .286. The current Cubs have never hit a homer off Pérez and have just four RBIs against him.

NBA Commish reacts to Clippers boss’ ‘precise words,’ alludes to possible federal hot water

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows Adam Silver reacts to Steve Ballmer’s careful statement as the Clippers face NBA sanctions and an ongoing U.S. Justice Department investigation today, Image 2 shows Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft, addresses a plenary session entitled

Adam Silver heard what Steve Ballmer said in his apology — and appeared to notice what the now-suspended Clippers owner did not say.

Speaking Tuesday after the NBA Board of Governors meetings, Silver was asked whether Ballmer’s Sunday statement went far enough despite stopping short of admitting that the Clippers circumvented salary-cap rules.

“Putting aside the precise words he chose to use, most importantly he indicated a willingness to accept the league’s decision in this case and the accompanying sanctions,” Silver said.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks to the media before the NBA Cup game between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post

That change in posture mattered. Ballmer had previously rejected the investigation’s findings, but said Sunday that the Clippers would comply, had paid their $30 million fine and would move forward. He also apologized and accepted responsibility as principal owner.

Silver suggested Ballmer may have had a reason to avoid an admission.

“There are other inquiries that have nothing to do with the NBA that the Clippers and Steve Ballmer are now dealing with,” Silver said, adding that Ballmer may need to “choose his words carefully.”

Silver did not identify those inquiries or accuse Ballmer of a federal crime. But the Justice Department has reportedly opened a criminal investigation into the Clippers’ dealings with Kawhi Leonard, leaving the owner potentially exposed beyond the league’s disciplinary process.

The NBA hammered the Clippers with a $30 million fine and the loss of five first-round picks after finding salary-cap violations. Ballmer was suspended for one year, while Leonard was ordered to pay $700,000.

The Clippers were not represented at the meetings because they are appointing an interim governor, who must be vetted.

Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer celebrates after guard Chris Paul hit a last second basket during the second half of Game 7 in a first-round NBA basketball playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, May 2, 2015, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 111-109. AP
Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft, addresses a plenary session entitled “Civic Engagement: Understanding Government by the Numbers” on the third day of the National Governors Association’s meeting Saturday, July 15, 2017, in Providence, R.I. AP

Despite the outside uncertainty, Silver signaled that the NBA’s case is effectively closed. The discipline is final, and Ballmer’s decision to stand down marked a sharp break from the organization’s early defiance.

Silver expects further conversations with Ballmer over the next year and sees every reason for him to return as an owner in good standing after serving his suspension.

The NBA is ready to turn the page. Whether federal authorities are is a separate question — and perhaps why Ballmer chose every word with care.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – Rhett Lowder vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 14: Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds gestures as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park on September 14, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Elly De La Cruz is truly ascending into Tungsten Arm O’Doyle territory of late.

Monday night saw him completely destroy a baseball, one that was conservatively estimated at 457 feet as it buzzed past the power stacks in left-center field in Great American Ball Park en route to exiting the stadium altogether. It was reminiscent of the superblast he hit from the other side of the plate off Los Angeles Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal just a week ago, feats of strength irreplicable by just about any other sole on the planet.

The Cincinnati Reds lost last night, though. Elly’s homer was their lone run in a 4-1 loss to those very same Dodgers, a loss that officially eliminated the Reds from any miracle chance at a spot in the postseason. It also sunk them to 10 full games under .500 at 70-80, and this season is rapidly deteriorating into yet another one to forget and chuck onto the scrap-heap of memories of this once proud franchise.

I digress.

Rhett Lowder has a lot to improve upon as he heads into a vital offseason for his overall development. Anything short of a rapid change of form means the Reds need to build in even more redundancy in their starting depth plans for 2027, and there’s been precious little in the way of advancement from their former 1st round pick so far in his own disappointing 2026. He’ll get the start tonight, while the Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

First pitch in GABP is set for 6:40 PM ET. Here’s how both teams will line up:

Today’s Lineups

DODGERSREDS
Josue De Paula – DHCarlos Jorge – CF
Freddie Freeman – 1BElly De La Cruz – SS
Mookie Betts – SSSal Stewart – 1B
Kyle Tucker – RFJJ Bleday – LF
Teoscar Hernandez – LFEugenio Suarez – DH
Max Muncy – 3BHector Rodriguez – RF
Tommy Edman – CFMatt McLain – 2B
Hunter Feduccia – CJuan Brito – 3B
Alex Freeland – 2BWill Banfield – C
Y. Yamamoto – RHPRhett Lowder – RHP

3 Prospects That Could Make Winnipeg Jets Roster This Season

The Winnipeg Jets' prospect pool doesn't get much respect around the league, often ranked toward the bottom when it comes to organizational depth. 

That knock has always felt a little unfair given how many young players are already contributing at the NHL level, with Cole Perfetti, Brad Lambert and incoming eighth overall pick Viggo Björck all projected to play key roles this season while still 24 or younger.

But the cupboard isn't as bare as the reputation suggests. Beneath that group of established or soon to be established names, the Jets have a handful of prospects who could realistically force their way onto the roster before the season is over. Here's a look at three names worth watching once training camp gets underway.

Brayden Yager

Yager, also 21, may not be quite as ready to make the jump, but he's making his own case. After playing his first full professional season with Manitoba, he produced 30 points in 68 games and closed things out strong with four points over seven playoff games. Some believe that next step is now Winnipeg.

He did get a brief look at the NHL level late in the season, appearing in three games with the Jets. He didn't record a point, but the taste of the top level, combined with an offseason of development, makes him a real candidate to push for a roster spot.

Elias Salomonsson

The 21-year-old Swedish defender was a regular presence for the Jets over a portion of last season, but with the addition of Jack St. Ivany on the right side of the defense, along with Haydn Fleury also capable of playing that side, it's not yet clear whether there's a spot for him on this roster.

The former second round pick from 2022 has finally grown into a defenseman ready to play at the NHL level, and last season he finally got the chance to show it, appearing in 32 games and recording a goal and four assists for five points with a minus six rating.

Salomonsson also spent 29 games with the Manitoba Moose at the AHL level, picking up a goal and eight assists for nine points and a minus two rating. After returning from a concussion to help fuel the Moose's playoff push, Salomonsson appeared in two games before sliding hard into the boards on a routine neutral zone hit, an injury that ultimately required shoulder surgery and closed out his season.

Thomas Milic

With the trade saga surrounding Connor Hellebuyck, if the Jets do not trade the three time Vezina Trophy winner and he sits out or if they deal Hellebuyck and don't get a goaltender in return, Milic should step into the Jets' backup role. 

The 23-year-old BC native had a tough start to his NHL career, allowing eight goals and recording an .871 save percentage over three appearances with the Jets. When back in the AHL, Milic rebounded in a major way. 

After a tough previous season in which he posted a losing record of 5-12-4 with a 3.44 goals against average and an .877 save percentage, he was much better this past season, finishing with a 20-13-8 record, a 2.64 goals against average and a .905 save percentage in 41 games. Milic took a clear step forward last season, and if he takes another one after this offseason, he could find himself playing a meaningful role up with the Jets this year.

Image

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Who is MLB's luckiest playoff team? Where all the contenders sit

On Aug. 30, the Tampa Bay Rays trailed the San Diego Padres by two runs with two outs in the ninth when Jonny DeLuca lifted a fly ball down the left-field line that looked like the final out of the game. Padres left fielder Samad Taylor ran it down at the short fence near the foul pole and had the ball in his glove − but then he slammed into the wall. The ball came loose, tumbling over the wall. What would be a routine out anywhere else became a two-run home run off Mason Miller, one of two the closer has given up this year.

Tampa Bay won it in the 11th on a bases-loaded single from Jorge Mateo. Nobody remembers that game as anything more than a win, and that's the point. The Rays have had a lot of luck this season, but the bottom line is they have been piling up wins this year, a lot of them. In fact, they have been collecting more than their own numbers can explain.

Tampa Bay was 90-59 heading into Tuesday night's games, but its run differential projects to an 82-67 team, an 8-win gap that's the largest of any team in this year's playoff field. Looking at all of baseball, no team has been unluckier than the Detroit Tigers, sitting 71-79 despite outscoring its opponents by 71 runs this year.

This isn't some exotic advanced analytics. It's the Pythagorean win expectation, a decades-old formula that turns runs scored and allowed into the record that gap should produce. When a team beats its own number, there's usually some luck involved.

With less than two weeks left in the regular season, this is a glimpse of who is riding their luck into October. The playoffs are one close game after another, the exact conditions that built these gaps all summer. Whatever has been carrying a team, good or bad, is about to get tested for real.

No team headed for October has caught more breaks than the Rays. Here's where the rest of the postseason contenders fall on the spectrum of luck:

Getting all the breaks

Houston is the closest thing to the Rays in the field. The Astros are 75-75, leading the American League West, but their run differential projects them to be 69-81. That's a six-win overperformance.

The Phillies aren't that far off, either. At 83-67, Philadelphia is four wins ahead of its 79-71 projected record. San Diego is also getting the breaks. The Padres have an 82-68 record against a projected 78-72 record, up four wins.

Cleveland (76-75) has had a smaller version of the same thing, just two wins above their projected 74-77, but that's enough to matter in a division race that sees them trailing just 1½ games heading into Tuesday night's games. It helps the Guardians that the White Sox are on the other side of this equation.

Taking their lumps

On the other side of the spectrum, the Cubs have gotten the least out of their season relative to how they have actually played. Chicago's 84-67, but its run differential projects to a 90-61 record. That's a six-win shortfall, the largest of any potential playoff team.

New York and Boston are not far off with a four-win deficit from their projected records. The Yankees are 87-63 instead of the 91-59 projected, while the Red Sox are 82-68 against 86-64.

Even the best teams in the game are dealing with some bad luck. Los Angeles and Milwaukee are each down three, the Dodgers 91-59 against a projected 94-56, while the Brewers have the best record in the sport at 93-57, but they are projected an even more dominant 96-54. So the best teams in the game are not getting the bounces − yet.

Then there's Cleveland's own division rival: the White Sox lead the AL Central at 77-73 but project to 79-71. Those two wins would be handy in such a close race.

The field of contenders splits pretty close to the middle. It's not quality, some of the best teams in baseball are on the wrong side of this. That's worth remembering when the playoffs start, when the Rays have to prove their season wasn't built on lucky bounces and the Cubs and Dodgers can show they are even better than their records. Close games are the norm in October and these teams are about to see how lucky they really are or are not.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who is MLB's luckiest playoff team? Where all the contenders sit

Game Discussion: Milwaukee Brewers (93-57) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (75-75)

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 12: Jacob Misiorowski #32 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks on during the game against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on September 12, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Brewers are on the verge of clinching the NL Central. It can happen any day now, and will likely happen on the first stop of this road trip in Pittsburgh. Not only could it happen tonight, but they have their best pitcher on the mound for it.

The clinching scenario for tonight is simple. Their magic number for the NL Central is at two. If the Brewers win and the Cubs lose to the Braves, the Brewers will clinch the NL Central for the fourth straight season. If either of those doesn’t happen, they will have to wait at least one more day. The good news is that regardless of the result, the Brewers will make some progress towards locking up the NL Central or a first-round bye (or both with a win).

If there’s one starter that has a strong chance to get them a win, it’s Jacob Misiorowski. After a rough start to the season, where the Brewers went 2-4 in his first six starts, they are 17-4 in his starts from May forward. One of those rough starts came in April against the Pirates. He allowed three runs in six innings while striking out nine. This is his fourth career start against the Pirates. In his previous three, he has a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings with 25 strikeouts. So far this season, he has a 1.95 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 236 strikeouts in 161 1/3 innings. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cubs, where he allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings while striking out nine.

On the other side, Lake Bachar starts for the Pirates. He was acquired from the Marlins at the trade deadline, but will function more as an opener. Since he was acquired, he has bounced between starts and relief, but his starts have not gone beyond the third inning. The Brewers have faced him three times this season, all in relief. He has allowed two runs in five innings, with one of those an unearned run when the Brewers scored their placed runner in an extra-innings win. Overall this season, he has a 3.52 ERA over 79 1/3 innings with 83 strikeouts.

The Brewers are using a similar lineup to what they used on Sunday, but with a few changes. The top three in the lineup will remain the same. Garrett Mitchell leads off, Jackson Chourio bats second, and Brice Turang bats third. William Contreras is back in the lineup batting fourth, with Jake Bauers and Christian Yelich in the fifth and sixth spots again. Luis Lara and Joey Ortiz switch spots and will bat seventh and eighth, with David Hamilton in the lineup and batting ninth. Ortiz will also shift over to shortstop with Hamilton playing third, as Cooper Pratt is out with an illness.

Here are the full lineups for today. First pitch is at 5:40 p.m.