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The Yankees continue to lean almost exclusively on their pitching staff to keep them in games, the offense managing two or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. It doesn’t feel like a sustainable approach, but for now it’s what they’ve got while they await the returns of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton from injury. Indeed, perhaps the best pitching performance of the last week belongs to Ryan Weathers, who completed six scoreless innings against the Cardinals to hand them their only win in that series.

We join Weathers in the sixth inning of the middle game against the Cardinals on Tuesday. His performance thus far continues a fascinating trend where the lefty seemingly pitches better the less run support he receives. Solo home runs by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr. on his MLB debut have staked Weathers to a 2-0 lead. However, he is facing the sternest test of this outing — runners on the corners with two outs following a JJ Wetherholt walk and Iván Herrera single with two outs as the top of the order faces Weathers for the third time.

Despite a pitch count of just 80, you get a sense that José Fermín will be the last batter Weathers faces — something Aaron Boone confirmed in his post game presser as he and Matt Blake perceived fatigue beginning to set in. To this point, Fermín has grounded out twice, Weathers attacking the righty with sinkers, changeups, and sliders, and there is no deviation in course as the Yankees lefty starts this encounter with a first-pitch sinker.

Weathers’ front shoulder opens a fraction early, causing him to sail this sinker well wide of the strike zone away. The result is a pretty straightforward take from Fermín against a pitch that never looked like a strike.

After Fermín spat on that outside sinker, a sneaky choice from Weathers would be a get-me-over backdoor sweeper for a called strike to get back into the count as it should look just like that sinker that missed out of the hand.

You can see how effective it is to follow a sinker called as a ball away with a backdoor sweeper. It looks just like the previous pitch, causing Fermín to give up on it early as it starts in the opposite batter’s box, only for its glove side movement to carry it back into the zone. It’s this type of sequencing that can cause a hitter to take a pitch that ends up pretty much down the middle.

Now that Weathers has shown Fermín a pitch that starts away before breaking back into the zone, it makes sense to follow it with a pitch away that breaks in the opposite direction — in this case the changeup.

Weathers executes an absolute beauty of a changeup dotted right on the corner low and away. You can see how much it looks like the previous sweeper that was called a strike, which explains why Fermín fouls this pitch to the opposite field, his swing expecting something that will break toward him resulting in the bat head staying too far inside a pitch that breaks away for him to barrel it.

It’s pretty obvious that Weathers is going to go away away away for the entire AB. Playing off of Fermín’s take on the first sweeper he threw for a called strike, Weathers tries to achieve the same result with another backdoor sweeper.

This time, Fermín is ready for the pitch. He too likely realized that Weathers is targeting the outer half of the strike zone, which means that a pitch that starts way outside is likely to be a backdoor breaker. Fermín correctly diagnoses that pitch out of Weathers’ hand and pulls the ball viciously down the third base line just foul. Despite the desired result with the first sweeper he threw, it’s a pretty dangerous pitch to throw multiple times against a righty. The sweeper suffers a significant platoon disadvantage against opposite-handed batters on account of the lift it generates relative to other breaking balls, and indeed you can see the way this sweeper enters the hitting zone pretty flat, which results in a pitch that breaks right into the nitro zone of a right-handed hitter.

Thankfully, Weathers abandons the pitch for the rest of the AB as he likely realizes that he dodged a bullet with Fermín not able to keep that batted ball fair. He returns to his trusty changeup — a much safer pitch to throw to a righty given that it breaks away from and not toward the barrel when employing an outer-half approach.

Unfortunately for Weathers, he opens his front side too early just like the first pitch sinker he threw, causing this changeup to sail way wide arm-side. You might think this was a non-competitive pitch given how far away it landed from the strike zone, but you can see how Fermín was initially tempted to chase away thanks to Weathers sequencing this changeup off the backdoor sweeper that preceded it.

With the sixth pitch, Weathers chooses to throw his first slider of the AB. Austin Wells sets an initial central aiming point, which should result in a back-foot slider given the pitch’s movement down and in.

Instead, Weathers nails that initial target that Wells flashes with his glove — an absolute cookie of a hanging slider right down the middle that he is lucky Fermín fails to punish. That’s three breaking balls — two sweepers and a slider — that Weathers leaves central, which should be enough to convince him to not throw another.

So far, the pitch that Weathers looks most likely to get Fermín to chase out of the zone is the changeup. If he can replicate his execution of the first one he threw, he should be able to end the inning with a strikeout or at least some weak contact.

This is now the third time that Weathers is unable to finish an arm-side breaking pitch to the outer half as it is now patently obvious that he has run out of steam and does not have the stamina to keep that front shoulder closed long enough to set his throwing arm down the correct path. Now, it’s just a matter of whether he can survive this AB as really only one of the seven pitches so far has been executed to its spot.

After six straight off-speed pitches, Weathers must feel that he can gas a heater by Fermín, his hand also forced a bit by Fermín battling back to work the count full and not wanting to load the bases for St Louis’ cleanup hitter.

Instead of commanding this sinker to the corner, Weathers leaves it up and catches more of the plate than you would like. This allows Fermín to barrel the pitch as he is absolutely ready to hit the fastball despite the steady diet of off-speed. It’s the first pitch Weathers has thrown that has an initial trajectory toward the inner half of the zone, which combined with the clear approach to pitch Fermín away makes it pretty obvious this is a fastball out of the hand. Luckily for Weathers and the Yankees, Fermín almost hits this ball too well, allowing it to hang up in the air long enough for Heliot Ramos to glove the liner for the final out, stranding runners on the corners as Weathers completes six shutout.

Here’s the full sequence:

Boone clearly made the right call to end Weathers’ night there at 88 pitches given the faltering command against the final three batters he faced. All the same, it represents yet another strong start for the Yankees’ southpaw, who has now allowed just one earned run in his last 20.1 innings pitched. As I hypothesized when writing about Weathers’ choice of fastball and as my colleague Andrés further investigated yesterday, Weathers’ U-turn comes courtesy of a shift in pitch usage, the lefty exchanging out many of his four-seamers for sinkers while also increasing deployment of the changeup and slider to mitigate the home run woes of the first half of his season.

This turnaround in form comes at just the right time for Weathers — he started his season off strong before encountering a serious sticky patch in May and early June, finding his footing as the Yankees crystalize their rotation plans with Carlos Rodón nearing a return from left elbow inflammation. Conversely, Will Warren has a 5.44 ERA in his last ten starts while Weathers owns a 2.89 ERA in his last nine over the same timeframe. At this point, it is clear who deserves to remain in the rotation vs. who has earned a demotion to the bullpen.

The Wild Card Race

Every win against the Dodgers is cause to celebrate, from the perspective that the underdog winner against the odds, and from the perspective that every win is a step closer to the NL Wild card into the playoffs, where anything could happen.

The Dodgers can be beat.  After the Red Sox swept the Dodgers (31 July to 2 August), Dave Roberts said, “…If you look at it unemotionally, they outplayed us.  You know, they were hungrier….”  Recent wins show that the Diamondbacks are intensely hungry to reach the playoffs. And in July, the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in a 3-game series.

Will the Dodgers avenge their lost series in July, or will the Diamondbacks repeat with a second consecutive series win?

Let’s compare the teams.

The Obvious. Two points.

• The Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach and win the World Series.  They added Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline.  Their players are talented and their depth is outstanding.
• The Diamondbacks are intensely focusing on their mission to reach the playoffs.  Although they are underdogs, they have real chances to win the series against the Dodgers.

The Subtle. Although the Diamondbacks have a well deserved reputation for excellent defense, one defensive metric agrees with that idea, and another defensive metric disagrees with that idea.

• Outs Above Average (OAA). Diamondbacks are better (32 vs 21). OAA emphasizes range to reach ball and play difficulty.
• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Dodgers are better (53 vs 20). DRS has a broader range of skills because it includes arm strngth, double plays, and other facets.

The Difference That Matters. The Diamondbacks defense is better in right field (7 DRS vs negative 5 DRS). The reason for the defensive difference is that Corbin Carroll has 9 OAA while Kyle Tucker has negative 6 OAA. In addition, Corbin Carroll bats better (OPS+ of 121 vs 100).

Dodgers Player to Watch.

Barring any last minute changes, the Diamondbacks will not see the new Dodgers starting pitcher. How would their trade deadline acquisition, Tarik Skubal, fare if he pitched against the Diamondbacks? 

In Skubal’s first start as a Dodger he lost, despite pitching a quality start. The Dodgers only scored one run in that game. For the season, the Dodgers have less runs scored per game than the Diamondbacks. Unless the Dodgers provide better run support, my view is that Skubal would not fare any better against the Diamondbacks.

Pitching Matchups.

The pitching matchups have not yet been announced. perhaps they will be as follows.

Friday, 6:40 PM MST.

Merrill Kelly vs Roki Sasaki. In July/August, Kelly had a better ERA (3.03 vs 4.00), while Sasaki had more quality starts (2 vs 1).

This matchup is slight advantage Diamondbacks.

Saturday, 5:10 PM MST.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Recently, each of these pitchers had a lot of quality starts (4 for Yamamoto and 3 for Pfaadt). However, in July/August, Pfaadt had a much better ERA (1.53 vs 3.00). 

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Justin Wrobleski. In July/August, Rodriguez had a better ERA (4.19 vs 5.32), and he had more quality starts (4 vs 2). 

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

The Mariners marketing machine has been building the hype for this weekend’s festivities for months, but I’m finding it extremely difficult to get excited about a team that seemingly has no interest in actually winning their games. Getting shutout twice against the Tigers — a team that sold at the trade deadline — was a product of the same frustrating listless offense that’s plagued the team since June. The schedule in August doesn’t get any easier from here; after this series against the Rays, the best team in the AL, the M’s embark on a nine-game road trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee. First, this anniversary weekend awaits. Surely, nothing bad will happen on a sold out event weekend with high expectations for the team.

The Rays have held the best record in the AL since the end of June and it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to let up. Yes, their underlying peripherals point to some regression at some point this season, they’ve also banked so many wins already they’re virtually guaranteed a playoff berth even if they come crashing back down to Earth. And again, it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to any time soon. They made some targeted improvements at the trade deadline, the pitching staff has been as solid as ever, and the top half of the lineup is carrying the offense. 

With the trio of Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda anchoring the top of the Rays’ lineup, they went out and added Liam Hicks at the trade deadline to improve the production they’re getting from catcher and significantly lengthen the lineup. Caminero has been absolutely scorching hot since the end of June; over his last 40 games, he’s blasted 18 home runs and posted a 180 wRC+. The rest of the lineup is filled with flexible role players and platoons which force opponents into uncomfortable matchups throughout the game.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Maybe it’s due to his lengthy injury history or simply the fact that he plays in Tampa Bay, but Drew Rasmussen is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He’s earned his flowers the last couple of years, earning All-Star honors in both 2025 and ‘26. His foundation is a trio of fastballs that each break in a different direction, presenting a headache for batters trying to sit on any one of them. He’s added a new changeup this year and that offspeed pitch is actually running the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches. He’s also got a pair of decent breaking balls he can mix in when he really needs to keep batters off balance. Oh, and his command is impeccable, elevating his entire arsenal.

From a previous series preview:

Griffin Jax was an odd trade deadline acquisition last July. The Rays weren’t in a position to buy, but they traded Taj Bradley straight up for Jax, who was one of the best setup men in baseball at the time. Jax struggled as a reliever with the Rays and the team decided to convert him to a starter on the fly in May. It’s not the worst idea in the world; Jax has a deep repertoire that didn’t fit a traditional high-leverage reliever. Things have worked out pretty well despite the odd timing of it all. Across 18 starts and 82.2 IP, he has a 3.16 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 3.91 K/BB out of the rotation.

Jax allowed just a single run against the Mariners during that series in Tampa Bay. He covered five innings, allowed four hits and three walks, and struck out three.

From a previous series preview:

Ian Seymour started off last year in the bullpen but had a brief but successful stint as a starter to finish the season. Tampa Bay stuck him back in the bullpen to start this year and he eventually worked his way into a high-leverage role for a while. He’s been working as a starter for the past month and that might be his most successful role to date. He’s posted a matching 3.71 ERA and FIP in 11 appearances — seven traditional starts — since moving into the rotation.

Seymour was the only pitcher the Mariners were able to figure out back in July; he was battered for six runs in 3.1 innings.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners couldn’t gain any ground on the Astros this week even though they lost their series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers managed to gain a game by taking two of three against the Giants. Houston travels to San Diego this weekend while Texas hosts the Orioles. The Wild Card standings are too difficult to parse right now.

The Nationals ended a difficult road trip with a 7-3 loss to the Phillies on Thursday afternoon, dropping three of four in Philadelphia and eight of their last nine games overall. Miles Mikolas allowed six runs and a season-high 12 hits over five innings, while the Phillies collected eight doubles among their 16 hits. The bright spot for the Nats was Andrew Pinckney, who hit his first major-league home run in his first career start. The loss dropped the Nationals to 56-61, five games below .500 and 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.

The Nats will now return home for a three-game series against the 56-58 Cincinnati Reds, one of the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break. Cincinnati has gone 13-6 during the second half and enters Washington on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Athletics. Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson both homered in Thursday’s 6-5 victory, while rookie Sal Stewart hit his 25th home run of the season.

Game One – Friday 6:45 PM ET

CIN: RHP Chase Petty (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (8-5, 3.52 ERA)

Petty will serve as the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Reds. He recently returned from the injured list and has not pitched more than 2⅓ innings in an appearance since June 4, so the Nationals should expect to see several Reds relievers Friday night.

Cavalli recorded his fifth consecutive quality start last Sunday against the Braves, allowing three runs—two earned—over six innings while striking out three. He has taken the mantle of most dependable Nats starter with Foster Griffin gone and will look to continue his success against a solid Reds lineup.

Game Two – Saturday 6:45 PM ET

CIN: RHP Chase Burns (13-1, 2.35 ERA)
WSH: LHP Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 3.94 ERA)

Burns has been one of baseball’s best starting pitchers this season and was dominant in his last outing against Pittsburgh, allowing one run on two hits over six innings while striking out nine. He earned his 13th win of the season in the 10-2 victory and has already beaten the Nationals once this season, throwing six scoreless innings against them in May.

Alvarez pitched very efficiently last time out against the Phillies, entering the 7th inning with a low pitch count and cruising, with zero runs allowed. Unfortunately, he allowed 2 runners on base and departed, and the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, surrendering a grand slam, adding 2 runs to Alvarez’s final line.

Game Three – Sunday 12:15 PM ET

CIN: RHP Brady Singer (5-10, 4.67 ERA)
WSH: TBD

Singer allowed three runs over six innings while striking out six in his last start against the Athletics. Although his overall numbers have been inconsistent, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and will look to give the Reds another solid outing in the series finale.

The Nationals have not yet announced a starter for Sunday afternoon. With an unusual 12:15 start time and national coverage on Peacock and NBCSN, the Nats will be looking to close the weekend—and a stretch of 17 consecutive games—with a much-needed series victory.

The Mariners have announced that as part of their 50 Seasons Celebration Night, when the top 50 players in team history will be welcomed at T-Mobile in a ceremony before first pitch, Alex Rodriguez will be in attendance.

It’s been 26 years since A-Rod left Seattle in free-agency and became a villain in the eyes of many Seattle sports fan, a wound that may still be left unhealed.

“I’m not sure if there will be cheers…well, I guess there will be cheers because my family will be with me,” he said in a conversation with Brock and Salk on 710ESPN with a chuckle. “They’ll have to be cheering loud to mute out the other 45,000 booing out of their mind.”

Lookout Landing staffers (and friends) met to discuss the impact of his fateful decision and the legacy that A-Rod has left in Seattle.

Evan: I’m relistening to the ARod segment and it’s so weird to hear the narrative be about him as a Seattle baseball pariah. Like dude…you are not a top 50 sports villain in this town. We don’t think about you (even if we should). In terms of Mariners specific antagonists I don’t even feel like he ranks very high.

Eric: I think about him, in regards to how fucking dumb the FO was to not make him THE guy after that 2000 season

Evan: I dont remember his parting as being all that contentious? They offered him 90 million compared to 250 million dollars.

Eric: Well the fans hated it bc uhhhh greed? Money? I dunno. But also the FO didn’t exactly make him feel like he could either a) be THE guy as Griffey was making it clear he wanted to go home and b) made a deal to keep them both somehow.

If they kept one or both of them, they win the 2001 World Series.

Evan: People boo him because he’s a cheater, not because he left the Mariners. I guess maybe what I remember as frustration with ownership and Pat Gillick for dismantling that 2001 team other people remember more as player specific animosity for leaving? IDK, my clear memory is that the ARod falling out really came after his suspension from the Yankees. That was the real watershed moment.

Zach Mason: Respectfully, you have no idea. This was extremely contentious. I’ve never heard mariners fans boo louder. People were throwing Monopoly money on the field. Now on the merits I think views about players taking the most money have changed over the past quarter century. But about what happened at the time you’re as wrong as you’ve ever been. Personally I love A-Rod and treasure my memories of him.

Evan: I remember it was contentious at the time, but it sure does feel like it’s come out in the wash given how the remainder of his career went. He’s a bigger villain in several other places, it feels small potatoes here in 2026. Baseball is a very different, distant landscape since that contract was signed.

Maybe the way to put this is he doesn’t feel, to me like OUR villian. We have Jesse Winker and Milton Bradley and Carlos Silva at home.

John: I am with ZAM on this one. He is top five still, and in terms of actual players I don’t think there are any competitors for most hated former Seattle athlete. The Monopoly money thing is one of the most iconic pieces of MLB history of the past 30 years.

I find it distasteful because my perspective has changed significantly since I was an angry six-year-old, which is not necessarily the case for many fans, but it was different than someone coming here and just sucking or disappointing. He was an all-time great and chose to leave to get more money, on the heels of Randy choosing to leave in a similarly heated, but slightly more understood, way, and Griffey doing the same where he also was subject to a lot of frustration, but was given the grace of a hero who just really wanted to go play at home. A Rod got none of that.

I think the closest comparable is Russell Wilson, but not only did he already win a title, he had declined enough to where it wasn’t quite as important that he wanted to leave, to say nothing of him getting traded to the other conference being quite different than signing with a direct divisional rival.

Evan: IDK, I feel like ARod immediately moved on from a Mariners pariah to a national entity and his shame lies with the Yankees. The Mariners stuff is very much a historical footnote at this point. Russell Wilson is, the exact comp in my mind though. We agree on that. Slightly different tracks, very similar arcs.

John: I agree that his national identity as a villain grew primarily once he became a Yankee. But he never did a thing to mitigate his villainy here, and he committed the three cardinal sins of an athlete in terms of turning fans against you without doing actual crimes against humanity:

1. Greed (taking the money from TEX),
2. Disloyalty (spurning Seattle for a division rival, then compounding that by going to the Evil Empire),
3. Cheating (repeatedly and at the apex of the sort of distrustful view towards baseball stars re: PEDs)

Evan: I don’t disagree with you, I just think that’s our very small angle and the rest of baseball doesn’t really remember it that way or any way. The zeitgeist remembers him as a Yankee and his Yankee story first and foremost, no matter the truth.

Ryan Blake: I’ve always wondered why ARod gets hate and Junior is beloved but I don’t know enough about how either left. I loved ARod growing up because I thought it was cool he used to play for the Mariners and they were otherwise irrelevant and didn’t realize until later there was animosity about him disappearing.

Isabelle: ARod gets the hate because he was so open about it being money-driven, and that felt like a particular betrayal vs Junior leaving to be nearer to his family. It just felt like such a keen betrayal, particularly for a region and fanbase where loyalty – through good and so much bad – is prized.

Nick T: The people of Seattle would’ve found all the grace in the world for him if he’d shown them a single reason to give it, and he didn’t. He could’ve literally made something up and gotten away with it!

Evan: You’re completely right, and I would be mad about it, if I wasn’t convinced he was truly one the most deranged people in the sport. So my feels are conflicted.

Nick: Yea and he bailed on the people who were trying to help steer him in the right direction

Amanda Lane: Just had to pop in and drop a little something:

The Hero Becomes the Villain: Alex Rodriguez Returns to Seattle

If you weren’t around then, you cannot possible understand without taking in the context of everything then. It simply cannot be understood through today’s lens at all. This was when athlete contracts in every sport were starting to get insane, when the cost of attending games was skyrocketing, when the Mariners lost Randy Johnson in 1998 and Ken Griffey Jr in 1999, then Alex in 2000. I say boo about him on Bluesky and end up blocking at least a few people because people are still INSANELY angry over him leaving. He was booed more than anyone else in the history of Seattle sports when he came back. And he wasn’t just booed here, it was everywhere. But nowhere as loud as here.

So much of the feeling of betrayal came from how deeply he was loved here, and how he said he wanted to stay and it wasn’t about the money, he just wanted to play for a winner. Then he signed for that much money with a really sucky Texas team. AND, something a lot of people hold on to too, is after he signed with Texas he was somehow roped into writing a letter urging Boeing to relocate to Dallas.

Evan: I will be 37 this month. I remember. Maybe it’s social media and the relationship people have with athletes now and the proximity, but it just feels so much closer now than it did 20 years ago, for me anyways. I wrote Arod a letter on his personal website page asking him why he left when I was in 4th grade, in front of a cheese grater Macintosh computer, in between sessions of WordMuncher and MathBlaster. It feels like so much has changed. Maybe I don’t remember it like I should.

John: I think if it happened now it would be a big deal and also he’d be not nearly as uniquely villainized. Like Kyle Tucker got booed massively the other day in his first return to Chicago and his postgame quotes were honestly fabulous and kinda heartbreaking. Basically “I played through a broken bone and multiple injuries to try and be good here, it didn’t work out and I wish it had. I get how passionate they are here, I’m glad they’re contenders too,.”

Amanda: Something I think about now too, sports writers drove a lot of public opinion about sports and they had been vocal for a long time about rising salaries and how it was ruining baseball. When Alex signed that contract with Texas, it had only been about 20 years of full free-agency. So many of those writers were working in the days before any free agency.

John: Exactly Amanda. My brothers are in their early 50s, they were in their early 30s when this all went down, they were huge baseball fans and diehard M’s fans. The first 10+ years of their lives, free agency didn’t exist!

Evan: It’s like when people say “you’re as close to Cleopatra as she was to the building the of the pyramids” but it’s “you’re as close to Carlos Triunfel as you are to free agency.”

ZAM: Ultimately, there’s four things going on here.

1. What happened at the time.

2. How you personally feel about it/how you think people should feel.

3. How most people feel about it now.

4. What A-Rod’s experience was.

I think 1 and 4 are very closely connected and that’s what sparked this conversation. I’m not surprised that A-Rod feels like there’s baggage. He’s obviously a messy bitch who loves drama in all facets of life (what was that post-JLo break up insta post with I wanna say Coldplay?), but I think anyone would have a hard time not dwelling on what it was like to come back here in the early 00s.

Also, please don’t put in the newspaper that I called A-Rod a messy bitch who loves drama.

For the second straight series, the Phillies will face a team that sold at the deadline. The defending American League champions have endured a massively disappointing season, and now players like Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Jeff Hoffman have been sent elsewhere. (Good luck to the Twins if they hope to use Hoffman in high leverage spots in a playoff game.)

The Blue Jays’ offense has been a disaster this season ranking dead last in runs scored despite the presence of stars like Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and George Springer. One bright spot earlier in the season was an import from Japan, but lately he’s been struggling as much as his teammates.

Opposition research: Kazuma Okamoto

When Japanese players come to MLB, they usually prefer to play for a West Coast team. But when former Nippon Professional League star Kazuma Okamoto came over, he took a different path. He apparently asked his daughter to pick her favorite logo, and she chose the Blue Jays.

It was suggested that the Phillies pursue him, but I’m not sure how serious their inquiries were. If they missed out, maybe this is a sign to change up their logo, perhaps to one that better appeals to the youth of Japan.

Despite getting off to a slow start, Okamoto had a solid first half of the season, putting up a .788 OPS with 22 home runs while playing solid defense at third base. (He won the equivalent of the Gold Glove in Japan, so this isn’t surprising.)

But he has slumped lately, batting just .208 over the past month.

The Phillies have done a relatively good job of shutting down his countryman Shohei Ohtani, and they’re off to a good start with Okamoto, limiting him to one hit in ten at bats when they faced him earlier this season.

Hating on the Blue Jays

The Dodgers are favorites to win their third straight championship this season, and that could have been prevented had the Blue Jays simply took care of business in the World Series last year.

Their misfortune this season is likely karmic punishment for not getting the job done.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: Joe Morgan showed up big in the 1983 World Series, with a 1.018 OPS and two home runs. (Too bad his teammates didn’t follow suit.) GoPhilsGoBirds was correct.

This week’s question: Paul Molitor was the MVP of the 1993 World Series thanks in part to his 12 hits in the series. Which of his teammates matched those 12 hits?

Additional thought about the series

Saturday’s scheduled starters are Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer, and I remember back in 2018 when they had an terrific pitching duel. Somehow, I don’t think they’ll be repeating that this season.

On Sunday, Shane Bieber is scheduled to start for the Jays, and I was shocked to learn that he’s only 31 years of age. It seems like he’s been around forever, even though due to injuries he hasn’t actually been around all that much. This is his third straight season shortened by injuries, and he hasn’t pitched very well since making his season debut in late June. (Although he is coming off a solid start).

As for the Phillies, the addition of Luis Arraez seems to have energized the offense. But until (if?) Kyle Schwarber can break out of his current malaise; the offense isn’t going to be all that good. The Phillies always seem to have at least a couple of players not doing much at the bottom of the lineup, so they simply can’t afford to have one of their stars mired in a massive slump.

Barring the kind of historic run the Red Sox are in the midst of, there will be no October baseball for the 2026 Mets -- a team that never found its way before dismantling about one-third of the roster ahead of the trade deadline.

But despite the fact that the Mets are essentially playing out the string, there are still important things to watch down the stretch.

And with New York planning to retool this coming offseason with an eye on being a playoff contender in 2027, there are five specific players whose performances over the final 46 games could have a big impact on how next season's roster is assembled.

Yes, the continued acclimation to the majors for outfielders Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing will be big over the next two months, as will the development of Nolan McLean and Christian Scott.

But their roles for next season are pretty much cemented.

The same can't be said for these five players, whose successes or failures could help shape how David Stearns and the club's front office operate this winter... 

Marcus Semien

Semien will probably always be a polarizing name for Mets fans because he was acquired in the Brandon Nimmo trade. But looking at Semien as a Nimmo replacement never made sense -- he was simply the means through which the Mets extricated themselves from the final two years of Nimmo's contract.

And while Nimmo is still a productive offensive player (127 OPS+ ahead of play on Friday), his power is down, with him pacing for 17 homers in 154 games this season. More notable is that Nimmo's outfield defense has continued to decline, with him in the 23rd percentile this season in OAA, via Baseball Savant (he was in the 41st percentile in 2025 and the 66th percentile in 2024).

Add to the equation that there would be no room for Nimmo in an outfield with Juan Soto, Benge, and Ewing, and I think it's fair to say we've reached the point where relitigating the Semien-Nimmo trade is pointless. 

In any event, Semien remains on the Mets, and he has two years left on his deal at $24 million annually for luxury tax purposes. That means that despite how Semien performs for the remainder of the season, he will almost certainly be a Met on Opening Day in 2027. But what will his role be?

Semien, who posted a 93 OPS+ last season after being a tick above average (103 OPS+) in 2024, will likely never again be the player he was between 2019 and 2023, when he had an .820 OPS. But it's fair to wonder if the hip injury he played through earlier this season had a serious impact on him.

The early returns since he came back from the IL suggest it did, with Semien putting up a .745 OPS with four homers in 17 games since being activated, and him playing much smoother defense at second base.

If Semien can simply be a league average hitter, and he shows his poor defense was due in large part to the hip injury, he could fit firmly in New York's plans for next season.

Jorge Polanco

It would be an understatement to say it has been a rough go for Polanco in his first season in New York.

Signed in part to play first base (though it always felt like he would be mainly a DH), Polanco has been limited to 30 games due to an Achilles issue and has been relegated to strictly DH duties for now due to his physical issues.

In those 30 games, Polanco has hit just .144/.202/.243 with two home runs, mustering a .445 OPS.

And if you're looking for a silver lining in Polanco's advanced stats, you won't find it.

Polanco has been trying to swing out of his struggles, recently taking 300 swings before Wednesday's game -- where he had a homer and double.

It remains possible that Polanco gets healthy and produces at a level that warrants his inclusion as a regular player on the Mets in 2027.

If not, parting ways with him this offseason or at some point during the 2027 campaign wouldn't be terribly complicated, since next season is his final year under contract -- though the $20 million luxury tax number is hefty.

Kodai Senga

Following the trades of Luke Weaver (who was under contract through 2027) and Huascar Brazoban (who was under team control through 2029), the Mets are going to have to basically rebuild their bullpen from scratch.

Devin Williams will be a part of it next season, but it's mostly question marks beyond that.

Senga, in two appearances since being asked to transition to a high-leverage relief role, is showing that he could potentially be one of the answers.

Interim manager Andy Green said that Senga's stuff -- specifically his high-octane four-seam fastball and devastating ghost fork -- should play up in relief. And that's what has happened in the small sample size we have to go by.

On Thursday against the Guardians in Cleveland, Senga fired a 1-2-3 inning while throwing primarily four-seamers and forkballs -- with his fastball topping out at 100 mph.

That came after a promising performance in Tuesday's series-opener where Senga worked around a walk in an otherwise spotless ninth inning. 

Nate Lavender

Also a possible part of a remade Mets bullpen in 2027, the early returns for Lavender have been good.

The left-hander has tossed 2.1 hitless innings over two games, allowing one walk and striking out three.

Along the way, Lavender has generated plenty of uncomfortable swings from opposing hitters, which is something he did throughout his career in the minors.

In parts of five minor league seasons, the 26-year-old had a 2.78 ERA while fanning 244 batters in 158.2 innings -- a strikeout rate of 13.6 per nine.

Dedniel Núñez

The Mets already know what they have in Núñez, who was one of the team's best relievers in 2024 (2.31 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 35.0 innings) before getting hurt.

Núñez's 2025 season was then wiped out by Tommy John surgery after just 10 games, with him recently returning.

If Núñez can stay healthy and maintain his fastball velocity, his four-seamer/slider combo could be a key part of New York's bullpen going forward.

On Wednesday against the Guardians in his first big league outing since returning, Núñez's four-seamer (which averaged 96.3 mph in 2024) averaged 97.0 mph and topped out at 98.4.

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Drew Rasmussen might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now - it’s a no-brainer to ride with him in our Rays vs. Mariners prediction.

The Tampa Bay Rays walk into T-Mobile Park as +105 underdogs at Polymarket despite running away with the AL East and having 12 more wins on the season over the Seattle Mariners. Let’s take advantage, shall we?

Let’s get right into my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7, and build that bankroll for the weekend.

Who will win Rays vs Mariners today: Tampa Bay Rays (+105)

Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays has been incredible this year, sporting a career-low 4.3% walk rate and 3.14 xERA across 117 innings pitched. Truly outstanding stuff.

We’re catching him during the best stint of his campaign tonight, too, having thrown 13 frames of shutout baseball across his last two starts.

It only gets better against the Seattle Mariners, punching them out at a 26% clip across 46 plate appearances.

It helps that the sticks are just as successful against Logan Gilbert on the other side, with Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero a combined 6-for-19 with an xBA of over .300 against the Mariners ace in their career.

No matter which angle you look at in this game, it’s all screaming Rays (they’re 4-0 in their last four games against a righty), which I’d price closer to -105. Let’s take advantage of this value and run with it.

Looking for more plays for today? Our Colby Marchio drops his MLB moneyline picks for the entire slate tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Can Logan Gilbert handle the Rays? Not only do Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have his number, but afer 59 plate appearances against the right-hander, Tampa Bay owns a .270 xBA and .430 xSLG. That should be enough to get us the W.

Rays vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 runs (+109)

One of the biggest reasons I love the Rays in this spot is because of Mr. Rasmussen, so it’s no surprise we’re rocking with the plus-money Under in this situation.

Looking at the MLB trends, the Under is 8-1 in the Rays’ last nine road games against a team with a winning record - that’ll play tonight.

Gilbert is no slouch, either, owning a career-low 5.4% walk rate himself, meaning both teams are going to have to earn their runs at T-Mobile Park - the most pitcher-friendly diamond in baseball.

I’m all over this Under at a full unit, and I’d play it up to +100.

Rays vs Mariners weather

It's a perfect night for baseball in Seattle, with temperatures sitting at a balmy 25 degrees farenheit around first pitch.

Rays vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rays (+105) | Mariners (-116)
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (+180) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-126) | Under 6.5 (+109)

Rays vs Mariners trend

The Rays have simply risen to the occasion this year against good pitching, going 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners.

How to watch Rays vs Mariners and game info

Rays vs Mariners latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Buster Posey didn’t mince words during his interview with KNBR on Thursday.

Three weeks ago, a KNBR producer unknowingly shared his honest feelings about the Giants exec during a live segment of the morning show “Murph & Markus.”

“Posey sucks, man,” the unnamed producer said while testing out a microphone.

For the first time since the hot mic moment, Posey returned as a guest on the show and left no doubt that he had heard what the KNBR employee said.

“Make sure the mics aren’t hot before you talk trash about me,” Posey said as his parting words before leaving the studio.

Host Markus Boucher and guest host John Dickinson didn’t bat an eye, however. Boucher laughed it off and reassured Posey the hot mic incident wouldn’t happen again.

Posey has been the recipient of much criticism over the course of the Giants’ 2026 season because of his handling of the team as well as the media. San Francisco has struggled significantly under first-year manager Tony Vitello and was active at the trade deadline because of its disastrous performance.

“Yeah, we’ll make sure the behind-the-scenes boys don’t press any hot mics. Appreciate you. Love you, Buster. Thank you, man. Buster Posey with the mic drop. Yeah, his mic was hot for that one,” Boucher said.

But beyond the team’s spiral, Posey has looked inadequate or ill-prepared in front of the media, especially following the Giants’ LGBTQ Pride Night controversy when he had no answers for reporters.

This week, however, Posey seemed primed to respond, and he did just that on Thursday to conclude his KNBR interview.  

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The New York Yankees are -131 favorites at home against the Atlanta Braves tonight, and my Braves vs. Yankees predictions are laying the juice.

This is a strong storyline game, with Max Fried making his first career start against the organization he came up with, and Tyler Mahle making his Braves debut after being acquired from San Francisco. The betting angle starts with the matchup: Fried’s contact control against a scorching Atlanta lineup.

Here are my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.

Who will win Braves vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-131)

I’m backing the New York Yankees moneyline for two units down to -145. There’s some anecdotal appeal in Max Fried facing his former team for the first time, but the matchup is the real reason.

Fried has allowed only three barrels on 197 batted balls this season, with a .254 xSLG and 2.39 xERA. That profile plays well against an Atlanta Braves lineup that ranks fourth in barrel rate but is closer to average when forced to string hits together.

Tyler Mahle is not a disaster (despite what his ERA says), but his 4.07 xERA and 9.2% walk rate are easy pressure points for the Bronx Bombers.

COVERS INTEL:Fried’s barrel rate has dropped from 6.9% last season to 1.5% this year, the biggest reason his xERA sits more than seven-tenths of a run below his actual ERA.

Braves vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-126)

I’m playing the Under because Fried gives this game a strong run-prevention base. His 49% ground-ball rate and .241 xwOBA allowed are elite indicators against a Braves lineup that is reliant on fly balls.

The Yankees’ offense also been ugly recently. They were held to one run Wednesday, going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Mahle is exploitable, but he's still a more-than-capable arm to slow down a stagnant offense.

You'll also get a well-focused pitcher hoping to make a strong impression with his new team.

Playable to 8 at +100.

Braves vs Yankees weather

Weather could matter more for timing than run environment tonight. It is hot at Yankee Stadium, with temperatures expected to sit in the low-to-mid 80s around first pitch, and there is thunderstorm risk in the early evening.

Braves vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Braves +119 | Yankees -131
• Run line: Braves +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Braves vs Yankees trend

The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in seven of their last nine games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees.

How to watch Braves vs Yankees and game info

Braves vs Yankees latest injuries

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Your 2026 former New York Mets: Oh, that was the problem, before the deadline the Mets had ’winning’ way lower on their priority list. Glad, the Mets brass caught that so they can begin their 2015-esque run.

“My first priority [said that day] is winning.”” -Bo Bichette [New York Mets]

Full disclosure, I’ve been on vacation the past two week with (thankfully) spotting internet, so I’m literally catching up on who was traded and who remains as I blog…

“Any time you find yourself in a situation like this, it’s not the most fun thing. You see people leave that you have good relationships with. It means that you’re not in a great place in the standings. But for us, we still have to show up and try to win every day, continue to be professionals. That’s what we’re looking forward to doing.” -Bo Bichette [New York Mets]

…so with h/t to David Roth of Defector,Let’s Remember Some Guys!

First, do you guys remember Bo Bichette? I remember him as well as his father Dante Bichette, who had a four-year run where he drove in 514 declines Rib Eye Steaks that paired with a somewhat edible four-year cumulative 0.6 fWAR. Which is just a wonderfully perfect mid-90s stat line that Dante was able to parlay into a three-year, $21 million extension for his age 35, 36, and 37 year old seasons. The contract ended up being a steal…/checks Baseball-Reference/…oh, wait, it went immediately south and the Rockies bailed one season into the three-year deal.

“I think [Bichette’s] in a good spot — as good as you can be. His intent coming here was competing for a World Series, and I think that is heavy on a lot of guys where we find ourselves at this moment. At the same time, carrying that heavy burden doesn’t make you perform well. Going out and believing you’re one of the best players on the planet and swinging the bat like it does.” -Mets Manager Tom Andy Green [Mets]

Anyways, absolutely not apropos of Remembering Some Bad Contracts to players with surnames of Bichette, Bo Bichette knows he’s having a down year and doesn’t feel great about it. But I bet he was Remembering Some Contracts and can console himself knowing his contract has $84 million guaranteed after this season and he will still have leverage to opt out if somehow that’s will be lead to being paid more than $42 million.

In other words, we’re going to start getting lots of quotes about how much he loves NY because he’s not opting out and no team will trade for him unless Cohen/Stearns eat at least the worth of 514 Rib Eye Steaks of his contracts.

“The way I look at it is, I think there’s no doubt this team is going to be better next year. I really believe that. There’s still a lot of talent in this room, a lot of young talent that’s really hungry, combined with guys that have been around who have done a lot of great things in this game. And then on top of that, typically when you have a season like this, people show up a little bit more motivated. So I think that this group is going to be well prepared to be better next year.” -Bo Bichette [Mets]

Honestly, I don’t really Remember Andy Green as A Guy and it might be tough for him to earn a spot as in Let’s Remember Some Former Mets Managers but he’s trying to hit the ground running because his use of MBA Buzzwords during post-game interviews might be making David Stearns roll his eyes.

I had to read additional context prior to the quote to realize Andy Green was talking about Jorge Polanco (another Guy I might not Remember) breaking out of a slump and not that the Mets might be paying his salary via some kind of equity in lieu of cash agreement.

“Sometimes, the sweat equity gets you rolling again.” -Andy Green [Mets]

I know the season is lost, but it’s nice the Mets are brought in former rival Placido Polanco to have the Farewell Tour he always wanted while giving Mets fans a chance to Remember him.

“It feels great to come through after putting a lot of work in.” -Jorge Polanco [Mets]

I’m going to level with you, while I think I’m pretty good at Remembering Some Guys, specifically former Mets from the mid-90s through today [Eric Valent, Desi Reliford, Bartolomé Fortunato]; I’m no David Roth.

Because while I’m confident David Roth will be able to Remember Jefry Yan in the future; I’m going to need Jefry Yan to do something so good or so bad in order for him to earn a spot in my brain where Guys like Dae-sung Koon have permanent residence.

“Once I had him at two strikes, I said, ‘You know what? I’m going to throw that slider,’ and if I freeze him, which is exactly what I did, I’m going to celebrate accordingly.” -Jefry Marte Yan [Mets]

“Honestly, I don’t think about [the Cleveland booing him or something, I did not see the game TBH]. They can do whatever they want there. They’re paying their tickets, so if they want to yell at me, they want to boo me, they can do whatever they want. I’m in my zone, and I’m going to enjoy my game any way that I want to.” – Jefry Yan Gomes [Mets]

The Mets should have Remembered Some Guys with real stuff instead of the fake stuff they went with in the first half.

“It’s real stuff. The fastball is alive.” – Shawn Andy Green [Mets]

Of course I Remember Kodai Senga. I also remember convincing myself his injury plagued 2024 was a blessing in disguise because /putting on my David Stearns-Andy Green MBA fedora/ it meant Senga could not opt out and the Mets were going to get SOOO much Surplus Value.

“Whatever role is given to me, I’m going to throw in that role — regardless of what I say,” Senga said through an interpreter. “If I say I want to be a starter, the team could tell me, ‘Just look at your stats.’ And I don’t have anything to say back to them.” -Kodai Senga [Mets]

I’m not in the ‘giving up’ on David Stearns camp yet,but when I Remember Some Front Office Guys, I remember how excited I was when Sandy Alderson was hired. To be fair to Alderson, he was dealt a bad hand with a barren farm, bad contracts and *cough /The Wilpons/*. With that said, and to put it very lightly, the second Sandy Alderson run included some notable missteps.

I know these Mets are not going to go on a run, but I’m going to continue to watch as is my wont, so Godspeed Jared Young or ChaseChac Chaise ChayseChayce McDermott, you have a chance to do something that can earn you a coveted spot in Mets Sickos Fans’ Remember Some Guys rolodex.

“First and foremost, we added a tremendous amount of talent all throughout our system. Different shapes and sizes, different positional groupings, arms and bats, really good defenders. So overall, we believe that we’ve added to our system. We added players that will help us in New York and overall strengthen the quality of our farm system.” -David Stearns [Mets]

Hitters who step into the box against Andrés Muñoz in the late innings have a good idea of what they’re going to see: a triple-digit heater or his wicked biting slider. But since last season, Muñoz has been integrating a tiny new wrinkle in his arsenal: the changeup that he developed prior to spring training last year.

Last spring, all the talk was about Muñoz’s hot sexy new “kick change”, even as he acknowledged the pitch was still in developmental form. Despite the spring buzz, Muñoz threw the pitch only sparingly last year (~2% of the time). This season, he’s still throwing the pitch infrequently, but he’s doubled his usage of it from 2025, to about 5%, and he’s used it even more heavily at times, most notably in his recent outings against the lefty-heavy Twins and Tigers. Muñoz uses his changeup almost exclusively to lefties; of the 32 he’s thrown this season, he’s only thrown one to a righty. Ryan did a great writeup on Muñoz earlier this season, in which he noted that Muñoz had been struggling to get his heater past lefties; it looks like Muñoz started to dip into the changeup more heavily as a weapon to deal with lefties.

Mariners fans have been quick to point out the similarities between Muñoz’s changeup and the other most famous changeup in Seattle’s history, that of Mariners legend and king of the cambio, Félix Hernández. Like Félix’s changeup, Muñoz’s features similar heavy drop, between 5-7”, and comes in around 92 mph, about half a tick faster than it averaged last season, when he was still throwing it as a “kick” change, something he said he doesn’t always do now that he’s throwing the pitch more, as the grip is uncomfortable. Traditional pitching wisdom holds that a changeup is effective when there’s a large velocity differential between that and a pitcher’s fastball, but as our own Jake wrote about Félix’s changeup back in 2019, even when Félix’s fastball velocity started to decline, the changeup remained effective because it featured such a different movement profile than his fastball.

Declining velocity isn’t a concern for Muñoz, but the changeup does play off his other pitches well. While Muñoz is a traditional fastball-up slider-down reliever, the slider cuts gloveside, biting in on lefties and away from righties. The changeup tails armside, giving Muñoz a whiff-getting weapon against lefties – if he can tempt them to swing.

That’s the big if; of those 32 changeups Muñoz has thrown this season, 22 have been balls, and one a called strike (fun fact: the one called strike was also the one changeup thrown to a righty, and it was Jose Altuve). But when hitters swing, they don’t make contact – the pitch currently has a 100% whiff rate. Sometimes the changeup comes in just fully noncompetitive, too far outside to tempt even the most swing-happy of fellas.

But the changeup is more than just a pitch Muñoz hopes to throw for strikes or as a weapon against lefties. It’s a pitch he can use to give hitters a different look as opposed to just the fastball/sinker and slider. And it’s a pitch he can go to when he’s being taxed in an inning or having to throw multiple innings. In his two outings during the Giants series, he threw no changeups, mostly because he didn’t need to, both times blowing through his assigned slate of hitters on just nine pitches each time. But in a multi-inning outing against the Twins where he needed 24 pitches, he threw the changeup six times, or about 25% total.

But what Muñoz says he really values about the changeup – and why he’s not as concerned about throwing it for swinging strikes, even if that’s a nice bonus – is how it can help him reset his mechanics. Muñoz has a famously wonky delivery, falling hard off the mound to the first base side on his finish: something that’s not as noticeable when he’s getting whiffs on his heater and slider, but is a tough look when he’s walking hitters, which he’s always done at an above-average clip. But for all the sturm und drang about Muñoz’s season this year, he’s actually right in line with his career walk rate while striking out a career-high: almost 37% of hitters facing Muñoz are punching out. Muñoz credits his changeup for helping him get back in line when he’s struggling with his command.

“I used to use that pitch to reset when I have some issues with command,” said Muñoz, who has thrown a changeup since 2019, but only rarely at the big-league level until recently. “Like if I’m not able to control, I throw a changeup, and that’s my reset, like, okay, I can go back to the fastball, I can go back to the slider. It just helps me get back in line.”

“Even in the throwing program, when I throw and I feel like something is off, I throw a changeup and I throw the next fastball and it’s good. So that’s why I say that’s like a reset for me.“

But Muñoz doesn’t discount the power of the changeup when he can land it close to the zone – hence that 100% whiff rate when hitters do choose to swing.

“If it looks like it’s in the zone, they’re going to swing at it, especially with two strikes.”

For now, Muñoz is happy to use the changeup primarily as a way to check in with his body when he feels like he’s getting out of his mechanics. It’s still a distant third offering behind his heater/sinker and slider. But whether it develops into a true swing-and-miss weapon or just settles in as a way for Muñoz to check in with himself, it’s a useful tool in Muñoz’s arsenal. Sometimes change is good.