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The Atlanta Braves may have spent another season navigating a multitude of pitching injuries, but it was ultimately the lineup that let them down in October.

Bounced from the postseason after falling in four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, the Braves will attempt to solve the individual and collective offensive issues that spelled the end of their season.

At the center of those struggles was All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, who experienced the most challenging season of his eight-year career as he saw his production drop for the third consecutive season. With his power down and his strikeouts climbing to an alarming high, Riley heads into a pivotal offseason.

How exactly did the club’s highest-paid player and a key member of their 2021 World Series championship team become one of the Braves’ biggest offensive liabilities? And how did such extreme regression set in during what should be the prime years of his career?

More importantly, how can he reverse these troubling trends and get his career back on track? 

Both Riley and the Braves will be searching for the answers this winter.

“First and foremost, I’ve got to be better,” Riley said following Atlanta’s Game 4 loss to the Dodgers in the NLDS. “I was terrible all year. I had some stretches where I showed life, but this is a game of consistency, and I wasn’t that this year.”

Injuries were at least partly to blame the previous two years, but Riley’s 2026 campaign was a complete struggle across 159 games. The trademark power that made him one of the most prolific third basemen in the game was simply not there on a regular basis. Even more concerning was the amount of swing-and-miss. Riley set a franchise record by striking out 201 times in 630 plate appearances.

His career-worst year leaves the team and the third baseman searching for answers. Riley somehow went from one of baseball’s most prolific sluggers to one of the least productive everyday players in the game in a span of three seasons.

From 2021 through 2023, Riley produced a 5.5 fWAR annually while averaging 73 extra-base hits, 36 homers, 99 RBIs, and an .878 OPS. He was a two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and produced three consecutive Top 10 MVP finishes. His 16.1 fWAR during that three-year run was fifth-best in the NL behind Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto.

Riley was also one of the game’s premier power hitters during that stretch. He was one of only three NL players with 100+ homers – Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber were the other two. Riley was also the only player in the NL to amass more than 100 homers and 100 doubles while ranking fourth in the NL with 297 RBIs during that three-year span.

All of those accolades and accomplishments make what happened over the past three seasons even more baffling. 

From 2024 through 2026, Riley averaged 1.7 fWAR per season while totaling 18 home runs, 61 RBIs, and posting a composite .718 OPS over the past three seasons, with 2026 marking the sixth consecutive year his OPS has fallen – from .898 in 2021 to just .654 this year.

Riley’s 31.9% strikeout rate was the worst in the NL and the third worst in MLB. He was also one of just 20 qualified hitters in baseball with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. Perhaps more alarming was the .365 slugging percentage which was the seventh lowest in the NL, contributing to that aforementioned .654 OPS. That ranked fourth worst among the 68 qualified NL hitters.

How it happened may be irrelevant at this point, but ways to fix it are what Riley and the Braves will explore this offseason.

“I’ve had some thoughts, because I know the capability I have and the player I can be,” Riley said. “There’s obviously got to be some changes with my swing and what that looks like. I’m not sure yet, but we’ll definitely dive into it and get it figured out… I’ve got to do some serious recon of how to get this thing back to where I know I’m capable of. From a working standpoint, I’ve got a long and hard offseason coming for me.”

Fortunately for Riley, there are at least some tangibles he can work with.

A look at Statcast illustrates a puzzling combination of rates and outcomes. Riley’s average exit velocity (91.3 mph), barrel rate (12.4%), and hard-hit rate (44.3%) were all strong while his bat speed (75.8 mph) remained elite, ranking in the 91st percentile.

The rest of his profile, however, was troubling to say the least. Riley was near the bottom of Major League Baseball in squared-up percentage (18.9%) and strikeout rate (31.9%) while his chase percentage (32.3%) was in the bottom third as well.

All of that points to one undeniable fact: Riley failed to make the kind of consistent hard contact that previously defined his game despite still possessing the requisite skillset to do so. The mechanics and timing of his swing as well as pitch selection all worked against Riley this season.

When the results are not there over a long enough period, a hitter’s natural response — whether consciously or subconsciously — is to start pressing at the plate and further compound the issues.

Even in the depth of his struggles, Riley remained outwardly optimistic. His teammates and manager likewise maintained their belief that he would eventually find his way through the slump through hard work and dedication.

“Look, I’ve seen him really good for a long time, and I see the work behind the scenes,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said. “I know the person. You bet on the person. Obviously, (he’s) a very talented guy, but you couldn’t tell this year if he was the leading MVP candidate in the National League or if he was struggling. I mean that. He’s the same guy every day.”

Riley tinkered throughout the year to make adjustments to his stance and swing. He went back to hitting notes, prompts, and routines he recorded during his three-year run of success from 2021-2023 to see if there was anything he’d missed or could reincorporate into his regimen.

When that didn’t work, Weiss shared some advice with Riley: the answers may have to come from a different source because he’s older, his body has been through several key injuries, and change is a natural part of the game. In essence, rather than reflecting on past success, Riley should focus on tangible and incremental adjustments in the present in order to find answers at the plate.

The injuries certainly played a part in Riley’s declining numbers. He entered 2026 coming off two years marred by substantial health issues that curtailed his production and ultimately ended each season early.

In 2024, Riley suffered a fractured right hand when he was struck by a 97-mph fastball from Los Angeles Angels reliever Jack Kochanowicz in August. He missed the final 38 games of the season and finished with a .256 average, 19 homers, 56 RBIs and a .783 OPS. After three straight seasons of 5.0 fWAR or better production, Riley finished the 2024 campaign with a 2.5 fWAR.

Riley’s power was slow to return in 2025. He batted .287 over the first 47 games with eight home runs and 28 RBIs. That’s a 162-game pace for 28 homers and 97 RBIs – totals that would represent a dip from his three-year prime of 2021-2023 but certainly acceptable production.

What lay ahead was a downturn that Riley is still trying to fight his way out of.

Over his final 55 games in 2025, Riley hit just .235 with eight homers and 26 RBIs while turning in an OPS of .693 as he battled a lower abdominal issue throughout the summer. He eventually underwent season-ending surgery in August to repair a double sports hernia.

With that injury addressed, the Braves were hopeful Riley would have a chance at a normal offseason and a bounce back season. It simply did not play out that way.

“There were flashes at times, but he’d be the first one to tell you that he did not have a good year,” Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said. “He worked hard. We’ve definitely done everything we can on our end, and we’re going to continue to work at it.”

The work will start with Riley, who refused to deflect any of the blame or criticism for his season. He spoke highly of Atlanta hitting coach Tim Hyers and the work they put in throughout the season, even if the results never came as consistently as they’d hoped.

Once he gets a chance to recharge his batteries, Riley expects to get right back to work searching for fixes and changes that can get his swing back where he wants it to be.

“It’s a long season (and) you’ve got to let your body recover,” Riley said. “But at the same time, I think (the winter is) a really good time for me to sit down and really dive into what I need to do to get back to the production that I know I can (provide). I have some ideas on what I want to do, but there’s definitely going to be some marinating on just how I get back to that consistency showing up every day.”

Heading into his age-30 season, the Braves still believe in Riley’s ability and remain committed to helping him figure things out. Of course, Atlanta has a considerable vested interest in his turnaround. Riley has six years and $132 million remaining on the club-record 10-year, $212 million extension he signed in 2023.

With their third baseman at a crossroads, the Braves are hoping Riley can find a way to rediscover his stroke and contribute to a club that needs all of its star hitters pulling the rope in order to enjoy the kind of postseason success they tasted in 2021.

“He’s been one of the best third basemen in the game from an offensive standpoint,” Anthopoulos said. “He’s still a great defender and a great teammate. It was nice to get the health part put aside after back-to-back years of being hurt. From an offensive standpoint, he’s still a young player and is capable of so much more. He’s shown that, and we’re going to continue to work at it.”

Before we start, some obvious statements. Firstly, we do not know when Opening Day will take place in 2027. With the expiration of the agreement between the owners and the players, and the highly contentious nature of the upcoming negotiations (in particular, around the introduction of a salary cap), it’s possible there may not even be a 2027 Opening Day. However, I’d say odds are strongly on the side of there being some kind of season, albeit in a shortened form. Next, this is super early. We haven’t even had contract tenders yet. What follows also presumes perfect health, which on the basis of previous seasons, is not going to happen. That all said…

The definites

Let’s start with listing the roster spots which are, at the time of writing, definitely filled. We’ll then break down each area and look at the most plausible candidates to fill in the gaps.

• Catcher: Gabriel Moreno
• First base:
• Second base: Ketel Marte#
• Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo#
• Third base: Nolan Arenado
• Left field: Lars Nootbaar*
• Center field:
• Right field: Corbin Carroll*
• Designated hitter:

• Starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
• Starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
• Starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
• Starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly
• Starting pitcher:

• Closer: Justin Martinez
• Set-up: Juan Morillo
• Set-up: Brandyn Garcia
• Reliever:
• Reliever:
• Reliever:
• Reliever:

I don’t think many of the above need explanation. I’ve tagged the starting line-up with markers for whether they hit left-handed (*) or are switch-hitters (#), because this is a factor in what the team will look for to fill in the blanks. These players are all under contract for 2027. However, note that a blank doesn’t necessarily mean the team has to sign or trade for someone to fill the position. It may mean there is no overwhelmingly clear internal candidate, and as we’ll see, some of these may still be filled with players already in the organization. I also haven’t even mentioned the bench, because I’d say there are no “definites”. There are some “highly likelys” though.

The starting line-up

Three spots remain uncertain: first base, center field and designated hitter. The free-agent market at 1B is pretty terrible. Only three potential FA players put up even one fWAR this year: Ty France, Jake Bauers and Paul Goldschmidt. Much though the fan-base would like to see Goldy back, I’m highly skeptical. Bauers would be nice, also plays the corner outfield, and would add the left-handed thump, having hit 26 home-runs. He only turned 31 earlier in the week, so we’re not talking Carlos Santana v2.0. It’s been estimated the team might have around $20 million to add to the 2027 payroll. But that might not be enough for Bauers, predicted to earn almost $30 million.

This will probably cause some tiny heads on Twitter to explode, but I’d expect the team to go with a platoon of Pavin Smith and Tyler Locklear at first. Small sample size (33 PA), but Smith looked much better when he came back up in September (.290/.333/.548 for an .882 OPS). Locklear is a player for whom the health issue tabled above is perhaps the most serious concern. September has been a cursed month for him the past two years, tearing his elbow and shoulder in 2025, then fracturing a thumb this year. However, these seem more the result of bad luck than bad health. Smith, as a lefty, will see most action, with Locklear on the bench.

Center field is a spot where the team has clear internal options. We saw two of them play the position this year: Ryan Waldschmidt (53 starts) and Jordan Lawlar (29). Both are currently 24 years old and hit right-handed, so no advantage to either there. Lawlar hit better in 2026 (OPS+ 115 vs 94), albeit in about half the number of plate appearances. However, Jordan has his share of health concerns this year, including a fractured wrist, strained hamstring and a concussion scare after getting hit in the head. This is almost flipping a coin, but I’d give it to Lawlar, with Waldschmidt becoming the fourth outfielder.

Designated hitter is a spot where I can see the team spending some of the $20 million. There has been some suggestion about moving Ketel Marte to DH, but that would just create a hole at second, which might be harder to fill. The team has had some success in previous seasons with the likes of Joc Pederson in 2024. He had a decent bounceback season with the Rangers, producing a 134 OPS+ and will be a free agent this winter again, after signing a two-year, $37 million contract. Might be too rich for us, if he wants something similar, and I can see us going after a reunion with switch-hitting Josh Bell, who played for Arizona in 2024.

• First base: Pavin Smith
• Center field: Jordan Lawlar
• Designated hitter: Josh Bell (free-agent)

The bench

I’m going to presume we go with 13 position players, which would mean a four-man bench. Based on the discussion above, we already have two members on the bench, in Tyler Locklear and Ryan Waldschmidt. While I’d not be surprised by an Ildemaro Vargas re-signing, I’m adding Tim Tawa as one of the “highly likelys” I mentioned. He appeared in 104 games for the D-backs, started at five different positions plus DH, and had a respectable 91 OPS+. We still need a backup catcher. For the former, I can see a third year with James McCann filling the role. Torey Lovullo’s a big fan, singing the catcher’s praises after he signed last winter, and McCann seems to like the organization too.

• Bench: Tyler Locklear
• Bench: Ryan Waldschmidt
• Bench: Tim Tawa
• Bench: James McCann (free agent)

The rotation

Just a single spot to be filled in the Opening Day rotation, and this is an area where we’ll be going with one from the plethora of internal candidates. However, none of the ones used in 2025 exactly covered themselves in glory. Ryne Nelson (15), Mitch Bratt (10), Jose Cabrera (5) and Kohl Drake (5) combined for 35 starts, but went 4-12 with a collective 5.14 ERA in those. None of them had an ERA for the year below 4.70 or a FIP under 5.12. While the others are still young, Nelson will turn 29 before pitchers and catchers report – whenever that may be. After a breakout campaign in 2025, this year was a hard reality check. But his experience likely gives him the job, until the others prove themselves better.

• Starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson

The bullpen

The good news: the Diamondbacks bullpen in 2026 was the best in a while. Since exactly when, depends on your preferred metric. By ERA, since 2018. By FIP and fWAR, since 2017. And by Win Probability, since 2007. Part of that is, admittedly, relative. They ranked only 16th in the majors by relief ERA. Still, we’ll take it. The bad news? A lot of the innings need to be replaced. Our top three by bullpen IP (Taylor Clarke, Kevin Ginkel and Jonathan Loaisiga) are free agents, as are Paul Sewald and Ryan Thompson. All told? We have lost five of our top seven by IP, and must replace 285 innings (almost half all bullpen work), at a better than average 3.76 ERA. A full season from Justin Martinez is barely a start.

We didn’t get much help otherwise. Beyond those seven and JMart, seven other pitchers threw 10+ relief innings. While the usual caveats about reliever volatility and small sample sizes apply, of those seven only impending free-agent Dennis Santana and Gerardo Carrillo had an ERA below five. I’m hoping Andrew Saalfrank can return to something approaching previous form (career ERA+ 243!) after missing all of 2026 due to shoulder surgery. Beyond that though? While the back end looks solid, it really looks like Mike Hazen is going to have to rebuild much of the bullpen again over the winter. Expect more dumpster diving for depth, but I’d not be surprised to see one or more of Clarke, Ginkel and Loaisiga resign.

• Reliever: Gerardo Carillo
• Reliever: Andrew Saalfrank
• Reliever: Jonathan Loaisiga (free agent)
• Reliever: Taylor Clarke (free agent)

Feel free, of course, to disagree with me in the comments, argue over who will (or will not) be back, and discuss where the team should spent the relatively small amount of money it looks like they’ll have available.

A great defensive shortstop with solid bat-to-ball skills and a knack for reaching (and winning) World Series, Tony Kubek played in one of the best and most prolific eras in franchise history and shared the same clubhouse as some of the most relevant historical figures in the game. That wasn’t the end of his story though, as went on to offer his baseball insight and direct, outspoken style in the booth with a marvelous broadcasting career that earned him the Hall of Fame’s Ford C. Frick Award in 2009.

Today, Tony celebrates his 92nd birthday.

Anthony Christopher Kubek
Born: October 12, 1935 (Milwaukee, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1957-65

The son of Jennie and Anthony Alfonse Kubek, Tony was born in Milwaukee on October 12, 1935. The older Anthony played minor league baseball and helped a young Tony fall in love with the game at a very young age.

At Bay View High School, however, Kubek stood out in other disciplines, most notably football, basketball, and track. Baseball was actually dropped from the school program while he was there, so he played the game in sandlot leagues across the city of Milwaukee. There, he was spotted by Lou Maguolo, who worked as a scout for the Yankees from 1947 until the mid-seventies. A left-handed-hitting shortstop, Kubek signed with the Yanks after graduating from Bay View in 1954, and received a $1,500 bonus.

With the dream of eventually replacing Yankees legend Phil Rizzuto, Kubek started at Class D and worked his way up until reaching the majors. In the spring of 1957, manager Casey Stengel prepared the young and hungry prospect to play all over the diamond, since the Yankees had the solid Gil McDougald at shortstop. That year, Kubek started 31 games in left field, 22 in center field, 41 at shortstop, and 38 at third base, all while forming a close friendship with second baseman Bobby Richardson, another long-lived dynasty Yankee.

Kubel was 21 when he debuted in 1957, and he went on to earn American League Rookie of the Year honors after hitting .297/.335/.381 in 127 games and 475 plate appearances. He only hit three homers and stole six bases, but he doubled 21 times and played solid defense on a team that lasted until Game 7 of the World Series.

The Yanks lost that Fall Classic 4-3, but Kubek was excellent against his hometown Milwaukee Braves with eight hits, two homers (both in a 12-3 rout in Game 3 at County Stadium), four runs scored, four RBI, and a .786 OPS.

Sal Maglie, who was on the Yankees roster in that 1957 season but was ineligible for the World Series, offered an accurate scouting report on Kubek from that year while analyzing the series for Sports Illustrated:

“He’s going to be a great player. He’s a fine hitter right now. He hits with the pitch, and it’s hard to fool him. His wrists are so quick he can wait to see where the pitch is thrown before he commits himself, and then he can push it to left or pull it to right. And he’s never satisfied with himself. That’s the sign of a good ballplayer.”

The following year would see Kubek slump a bit offensively with a .265/.295/.317 line (71 wRC+), two round-trippers, and five thefts, but he was an All-Star and earned the first of three World Series rings with the Yankees. He only had a hit in 21 at-bats in this Fall Classic though, and the Yanks exacted revenge on Milwaukee with a seven-game triumph.

Kubek was also recognized as an All-Star in 1959 and finished the year with a .279/.313/.391 line, 25 doubles, seven triples, and six home runs. After hitting a career-high 14 round-trippers in the 1960 regular season, he was part of the team that lost the famous 1960 World Series to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In Game 7 of that Fall Classic, Kubek was rendered unable to field a groundball hit to him with the Yankees up 7-4, no outs, and a man on first. The ball took a weird bounce off the shoddy Forbes Field infield dirt and struck him in the throat, sending him down to the ground. He had to be replaced and sent to the hospital. The play haunted him for years, as it opened the door for a Pirates rally. It turned out to be the Bill Mazeroski walk-off homer game.

Fate would give Kubek a chance for redemption just one year later. As the Yankees shortstop, he witnessed Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris’ historic home run chase from up close and played on a World Series-winning roster, racking up five hits in the Fall Classic victory over Cincinnati. He played in both All-Star Games that year and finished second in the league with 38 doubles.

In many ways, 1961 was a big year for the Yankees’ shortstop. He got married to Margaret Timmel in October, and just a few days later, on November 4, joined the 127th infantry of the 32nd Division, a Wisconsin National Guard unit, according to his SABR profile.

The expectation was that the Yankees would lose Kubek for the entire 1962 campaign, and Tom Tresh turned in a Rookie of the Year-winning campaign of his own at the six in Kubek’s absence. But the veteran returned in August to post an excellent .314/.357/.432 line in 45 games. He logged eight hits with a .276 batting average as the Bombers beat the Giants in seven games in the World Series. It was his third and final title.

The 1963 and 1964 campaigns would bring World Series losses for the Yankees. His decline would start around those days, probably accelerated by injuries, most notably a back issue suffered in 1963.

After a rough 1965 season that saw him hit a paltry .218/.258/.295 line, Kubek was diagnosed with nerve damage at the top of his spinal column. He believes the origins of the injury stem from 1961, when he was playing touch football. He decided to hang up his cleats at 29. Not too long after that, he started what turned out to be a brilliant career in broadcasting.

Through NBC official David Kennedy, Kubek landed a job as a color commentator for Game of the Week. In a career that spanned over 20 years, the former Yankees great worked alongside voices such as Curt Gowdy, Jim Simpson, Bob Costas, and Joe Garagiola, among others.

Kubek went on to broadcast 11 World Series, 14 League Championship Series, and 10 All-Star Games. In addition to his work at NBC, he also had stints with the Yankees, the Blue Jays, and also at TSN and CTV before stepping away from the game in 1994.

You could certainly say that Kubek has lived life to the fullest. He and his wife Margaret had four children and five grandchildren. He was a star with the bat, the glove, and the microphone, while also serving his country. Not bad at all.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

What is there to say about the Royals’ 23-year-old slugger?

First, let’s let him do the talking.

You can take your pick of which of those videos you find the most impressive. If I could choose between them, I would have included just one, but all three are a lot of fun.

Cullen Jekel wrote Jac’s end-of-the-season review last year. I don’t agree with everything he wrote at the time, but the general sentiment was fair. Jac was bad in his first year in the big leagues. Maybe the Royals promoted him too early. I’d argue that they did not. He had destroyed multiple levels of the minors, and by the time they promoted him, it had become clear to me that AAA pitching simply wasn’t going to be able to challenge him enough to make him grow. He was tortured* by big league pitching, yes, but that seemed a necessary step on his journey. That all feels justified now, as Jac is tied for the 24th-best wRC+ in MLB and was 18th-best by OPS+.

*And I do mean tortured. He was so obviously distraught after every out that I was not alone in clamoring for the Royals to demote him to Omaha before the end of the season and help him regain his confidence.

All that praise aside, there are two different lenses with which we can view Jac’s 2026 season.

The first is the pessimist’s lens. Jac struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances and had the ninth-worst chase rate in all of baseball. He also walked only 6% of the time, a number that can only look good when compared to someone who prefers to use a Segway. He also finished the season with only 553 plate appearances. Parts of that was because he was platooned and batted low in the order early in the season, but another part of it where the series of small injuries he endured throughout the season. At no point did he ever play more than 24 games in a row. At no point did he start more than 23 in a row. In the end, he totalled 143 games. It’s not like it was a lost season, but you’d like to see the best bat in your lineup 150 games at least. He was also a liability on defense, whether in right field or at first, and despite his seven stolen bases, he didn’t add much value with his legs.

The second is the optimist’s lens. From June 1 on, he had the 16th-best ISO in baseball. He was tied for the 33rd-most home runs in baseball and the 35th-best fWAR. He won AL Player of the Month in August because he slashed .411/.429/.684/1.113, leading all of MLB in every category there except OBP because he hilariously only walked 2% of the time. But the closest to him in SLG among those with higher OBPs was Bryce Harper, more than 100 points behind with a measly .573. Who needs walks when you can hit over .400 with that kind of power?

And the best part is that you don’t even need to use arbitrary endpoints to highlight how good he was. Even taking the entire season into account, he finished with the 32nd-best ISO and 12th-best batting average in MLB. He had the 12th-best wRC+ among all outfielders – a number that only improves as you remove players like Bryce Harper and Chase DeLauter, who spent more time at other positions than the outfield.

Have you all seen Baseball Savant’s player comparison tool? It’s super fun. Here. Let’s compare Jac’s 2025 to his 2026.

As you can see, some already impressive red marks drastically improved in his second season. OK, yeah, some of you have already noticed the “2024” under the first player’s image. That’s actually Ben Rice in his first year. The second image really is Jac this season, though. But, uh, take a look at this:

Ben Rice has grown into an absolute monster after kind of a weak showing that first year. I know the comparison everyone loved to make when Jac was first drafted was to Aaron Judge. That was always an unrealistic comp; Judge is a generational talent. But Ben Rice is a much more attainable goal, and he’s still very good. He slashed .264/.363/.534/.897 with 41 home runs and 4.2 fWAR as a no-defense, no-baserunning first baseman this season.

Here’s the kicker: Rice was 25 in that first year and is 27 now; Jac will still only be 24 next season.

Many of us thought that if Jac could be playable this year, the Royals could be a true playoff contender. Unfortunately, the bullpen had other ideas. But not only did Jac become playable, he became a bona fide star. And there is an absolute blueprint for him becoming the kind of superstar that can slash .421/.500/1.105/1.605 in the postseason. It’s been said that Bobby Witt Jr. needed a sidekick to help him lead the Royals to competitive baseball. There was hope that Jac could be that guy. But by this time next year, we might be talking about Bobby having become Jac’s sidekick. And that’s pretty cool.

For the second time in three years and seventh time in my lifetime, the Cleveland Guardians are in the American League Championship series. This time, they face off against fellow, small-market, analytics-darling the Tampa Bay Rays.

During the 2026 season, the Rays were fifth in MLB at 104 wRC+, ninth in baserunning runs above average at +4.7, 13th in Defense at -12.6, third in starting pitcher ERA at 3.51 (3.79 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.99 (4.35 FIP).

During the 2026 season, the Guardians were a different team after the trade deadline offensively, so I want to provide their wRC+ from August 4th on. The rest of the numbers reflect the full season. So, after the MLB trade deadline, the Guardians were sixth in MLB at 106 wRC+, for the full season, eight in baserunning runs above average at +5.1, ninth in Defense at -7.3, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), and sixth in bullpen ERA 3.54 (3.70 FIP).

Looking at the numbers on paper, if you trust the Guardians are more of the offense they have been since making significant trade deadline additions, these teams are fairly evenly matched. The separator is superlative Tampa Bay Rays starting pitching… and, if you have watched these teams throughout the season, you know that the Rays consistently do ALL the little things to win baseball games. The Guardians often do these things… but definitely not as consistently and relentlessly as Tampa Bay has done. With that said, we will see how these dynamics play out in front of us shortly.

Keys to the ALCS for the Guardians

Leverage Your Lefties: The Rays were the 26th best offense against LHP in 2026 with a 90 wRC+ (the Guardians had a 91 wRC+, so… this is a mutual issue). They were fourth best against RHP at 110 wRC+. So, Stephen Vogt will likely need to maximize his left-handed pitchers value by putting them in position to neutralize Tampa’s offensive threats. Expect some heavy doses of Foster Griffin (game one starter), Joey Cantillo, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski whenever they are available. Junior Caminero at 152 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 146 wRC+, Ryan Vilade 126 wRC+, and Yandy Diaz 114 wRC+ are the primary threats on Tampa’s roster, so working around them (whether with walks or pitching changes) will be crucial to making this plan effective.

Manage Martinez: Angel Martinez had a nightmare ALDS going 0 for 15 with 8 strikeouts. Yet, he had a 152 wRC+ from August 1st onwards and led the team in homers. I suspect the Guardians probably are not going to win the ALCS without Martinez figuring something out. Does seeing how his team managed to win a playoff series without him hitting help him take a breath and stop chasing everything? Might manager Stephen Vogt start Petey Halpin vs. RHP from the Rays? Should he? Figuring out the role Martinez should play in the series ahead will likely prove critical to enhancing the team’s chances to shock the world.

Pounce on the Pen: Aside from not being great against left-handed pitching, the Rays’ other weakness is their bullpen aside from closer Bryan Baker. Now, Baker doesn’t strike out a TON of hitters (9 per 9) and his expected numbers don’t back up his 1.44 ERA from the season… but guys just don’t square him up, and, when they do, they seemingly hit it right at someone. Can the Guardians force the excellent Tampa Bay Rays starters to throw a lot of pitches and get into the bullpen earlier? They’ll have to foul off a lot of pitches to do so because the Rays are strike-throwers and unlikely to issue many walks. If Cleveland can find their way to some BABIP-led hits, some opportunistic home run swings, and some lengthy foul-ball led AB’s, they SHOULD be able to capitalize on a less than ideal Rays’ relief corps.

Resist Revenge: The Guardians eliminated the Rays in the 2022 wildcard series, after the Rays eliminated them in the one-game wildcard playoff in 2013, so this is a rubber match, of sorts. However, the revenge factor goes much deeper, as I’m sure we are all aware and as will be absolutely drilled into our heads by national broadcasters looking for narratives. The Guardians traded Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero to the Rays, and Richie Palacios is a prominent former Cleveland ballplayer, also. Shawn Armstrong and Nathaniel Lowe have played for the Rays… but more prominently, Guardians’ skipper Stephen Vogt was drafted and eventually cut by the Rays. I don’t think MLB teams, as a whole, think about this aspect of the game a lot, but individual players certainly do. I am sure Diaz, Caminero and Palacios would like to place an exclamation point on Cleveland’s decision to move on from each of them, and it will be up to the Guardians’ pitching staff to neutralize all narrative attempts in that direction.

Hold on to Hot Hosey: Jose Ramirez ended the ALDS with a 211 wRC+. If he is feeling good and able to sustain something like this as a hitter, that has the potential to upend this series. However, don’t expect the Rays to spend much time pitching to Hosey if he’s still seeing the ball this well. They will begin to pitch around him/intentionally walk him quickly, which will make it so the rest of the Guardians’ hitters need to come through. Speaking of that…

DeLauter Finds De Lift: After being clearly the Guardians’ best hitter in the 2026 season, DeLauter had a suboptimal ALDS with a 53 wRC+, not taking a walk and running a groundball of 60%. I would guarantee the Guardians will need more from Chase to have a good series this time to be able to go to the World Series. He needs to be a little more patient and find a way to lift some balls off of the infield. He’s more than capable of doing it, but a balky wrist issue may be playing a factor at this point. DeLauter is my key player to watch this series for the Guardians.

Messick Meets Moment: Obviously, the Guardians need Gavin Williams and Cade Smith to continue to be great. But, they somehow managed to beat the White Sox with their best pitcher in 2026, Parker Messick, underperforming. Was Messick off because of how well Chicago knew him? Is he tiring after surpassing career highs in innings pitched? We are about to find out the answers to this question, and Messick will have to return to something closer to his regular season top-3 Cy Young-award finisher form for the Guardians to have a good shot at making the seventh World Series in the history of the franchise.

Unstoppable Force Budges Immovable Object: The Guardians’ pitchers strikeout a TON of hitters, third best in MLB at 9.58 batters per 9 innings. The Rays have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB of 7 batters per 9 innings. Something’s gotta give. Even if the Guardians manage to find some strikeouts, they will need to play excellent defense to compensate for the huge reduction in whiffs their pitchers will get this series as compared to the matchups against the free-swinging White Sox.

Likely Pitching Matchups (All subject to change, to openers, to weather in Cleveland, etc):

Game One, Monday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen, RHP 2.67 ERA (2.81 FIP) vs. Foster Griffin, LHP 3.60 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Two, Tuesday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Freddy Peralta, RHP 3.25 ERA (3.93 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP 2.56 ERA (3.07 FIP)
Game Three, Thursday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Gavin Williams, RHP 3.76 ERA (3.47 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez, RHP 3.10 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Four, Friday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.62 ERA (3.98 FIP) vs. Griffin Jax, RHP 3.53 ERA (3.76 FIP)
*Game Five, Saturday, 8PM ET, @Cleveland: Rasmussen vs. Griffin
*Game Six, Monday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Peralta vs. Messick
*Game Seven, Tuesday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Williams vs. Martinez

*if necessary

The Rays in 2026 were led Junior Caminero 142 wRC+, Liam Hicks 130 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 128 wRC+, Yandy Diaz 125 wRC+, and Jonathan Aranda 123 wRC+.

The Guardians in 2026 were led by Chase DeLauter 131 wRC+, Steven Kwan 114 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 110 wRC+, Angel Martinez 108 wRC+ and Nathaniel Lowe 107 wRC+.

The Guardians will need to be incredibly crisp about their execution in pitching, in plate discipline, in defense, and in baserunning to have a shot of hanging with the Rays. Blink in ANY of those areas, and this will be a very quick playoff appearance. It feels amazing to have this opportunity, but you are never guaranteed another shot. It’s crucial for the Guardians to find a way to take advantage of the moment in front of them and fight their way to a shot a title. It is feasible they do so, and that’s all you can ask.

Glossary:
wRC+ is a measure of overall run production where 100 is league average, adjusted for ballpark effects.
Defense measures a team’s overall run value above average in fielding.
FIP looks at ERA independent from a team’s fielding abilities.

Memorable Blue Jays Playoff Moments

11 Years Ago

Eleven years ago, the Blue Jays triumphed in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rangers.

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Jays faced a daunting challenge. Yet, they responded with a decisive 8-4 victory, scoring early and often.

From the recap:

It started perfectly. Ben Revere put down an excellent bunt single, and Josh Donaldson followed with a home run. Then a Chris Colabello home run put us up 3-0 before the Rangers had their first at-bat.

Second inning: Kevin Pillar hits a solo homer.

Third inning: Donaldson walks, Jose Bautista doubled followed by an Edwin Encarnacion ground out (Bautista tried to go second to third, but Elvis Andrus decoyed him and got him at third), scoring Josh. Colabello doubled, bringing home another. A Russell Martin walk and a Pillar single were up 7-1.

One more run in the seventh got us to 8.

A bit of controversy emerged as R.A. Dickey pitched 4.2 innings, surrendering 5 hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts, and just one earned run. Despite a manageable pitch count of 78, manager John Gibbons removed him just one out shy of qualifying for a playoff win. It seemed strange to take the win away from R.A.

Gibbons brought in David Price, despite Price’s postseason struggles—he had allowed 5 runs in 7 innings in Game 1. Price had posted a stellar 9-1 record with a 2.30 ERA since joining the Jays at the trade deadline.

With only Game 5 remaining, and assuming the Jays would win, Gibbons had already chosen Marcus Stroman to start the finale. Perhaps he wanted to avoid any controversy regarding that decision.

Personally, I would have preferred Price to be available in the bullpen for Game 5, in case Stroman struggled. Dickey deserved the chance to earn the win, and it seemed unnecessary to use Price when Dickey could have pitched deeper, keeping the bullpen rested for the deciding game.

The win set up a very interesting game five.

34 Years ago

The Jays clinched Game 6 of the ALCS, advancing to the World Series for the second consecutive year with a 6-3 victory over the White Sox.

Dave Stewart delivered 7.1 strong innings, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. Duane Ward secured the save, surrendering a solo home run over 1.2 innings and striking out three.

On the offensive side:

Devon White went 3-for-5, capping the game with a ninth-inning home run. Paul Molitor contributed by going 1-for-3 with a walk and a triple, driving in two in the ninth—a key three-run inning, especially after Ward allowed a home run in the bottom half. Pat Borders added a 2-for-4 performance with three RBIs, highlighted by a two-run single in the second and an RBI ground out in the fourth.

The Jays would go on to defeat the Phillies in the World Series.

That team featured an outstanding lineup:

If Sonny Gray leaves, five pitchers Red Sox should pursue in free agency originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Red Sox should prioritize adding power to their lineup this offseason, but they may also need to fill a significant void in their starting rotation.

Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is set to become a free agent after a sensational debut season with Boston. The soon-to-be 37-year-old led MLB with 18 wins while compiling a 2.72 ERA and 1.148 WHIP across 29 starts.

Gray was the Red Sox’ de facto ace while Garrett Crochet missed most of the 2026 campaign due to injury. Without him, the projected 2027 rotation looks something like this:

1. Garrett Crochet, LHP
2. Payton Tolle, LHP
3. Ranger Suarez, LHP
4. Brayan Bello, RHP
5. Jake Bennett, LHP

Not too shabby, but extremely left-handed-heavy. Plus, Bello was astoundingly bad as a starter this year with a 7.18 ERA over 11 outings.

So, who could potentially replace Gray in the Red Sox rotation next season? Here are a handful of intriguing right-handers expected to hit the open market this winter:

Michael King

• 2026 stats: 12-10, 3.21 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 159 SO, 70 BB, 185 IP (32 starts with San Diego Padres)
• Age: 32

King bounced back from an injury-plagued 2025 with a stellar 2026 for San Diego. As a result, he’ll likely be one of the pricier free-agent pitchers this offseason.

That shouldn’t dissuade the Red Sox from pursuing the New England native and Boston College alum. King is as consistent as they come when healthy, and if he declines his $28 million option for 2027, he’d be an exceptional addition to the middle of Boston’s already-strong rotation.

Kevin Gausman

• 2026 stats: 9-12, 4.51 ERA, 1.272 WHIP, 184 SO, 47 BB, 177.2 IP (23 starts with Toronto Blue Jays, nine starts with Chicago Cubs)
• Age: 36

Gausman is coming off a down season during which he was traded from Toronto to Chicago before the deadline. It was the first time since 2019 that the veteran finished a season with an ERA above 4.00.

That makes Gausman primed for a bounce-back campaign at 36 years old, just like Gray was upon being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals last winter. Even if Gausman can’t put up Cy Young-caliber numbers like Gray, he can be counted on to post. He has made at least 31 starts in each of his last six seasons.

Nick Martinez

• 2026 stats: 15-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 109 SO, 26 BB, 180 IP (31 starts with Tampa Bay Rays)
• Age: 36

After a rocky 2025 with Cincinnati, Martinez returned to form with a career year for the Rays. The nine-year veteran pitched exclusively as a starter for the first time in his career and blew away expectations while earning his first All-Star nod.

Martinez has a $20 million mutual option with the Rays for 2027, but mutual options are rarely picked up. He should be near the top of Boston’s wish list if he’s available.

Casey Mize

• 2026 stats: 6-10, 4.32 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 110 SO, 38 BB, 131.1 IP (16 starts with Detroit Tigers, 10 starts with Padres)
• Age: 30

The 2026 season was a mixed bag for Mize. A first-time All-Star in 2025, he looked even better with the Tigers this year, posting a 2.70 ERA over 16 starts.

His strong start made him a valuable trade chip for Detroit, and he was shipped to the Padres for two prospects, including left-hander Kash Mayfield, San Diego’s No. 2-ranked prospect.

Mize struggled mightily with the Padres, posting a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts. That raises obvious concerns as the former No. 1 overall draft pick enters free agency, but the upside he showed with Detroit makes him an intriguing option for the back end of Boston’s rotation.

Freddy Peralta

• 2026 stats: 10-11, 4.42 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 156 SO, 63 BB, 169 IP (22 starts with New York Mets, 10 starts with Rays)
• Age: 31

The former Milwaukee Brewers star struggled in Queens, but nothing really went right for the Mets in 2026. With the Rays, Peralta looked much more like his All-Star self, sporting a 3.25 ERA and 1.012 WHIP across 10 starts.

If you believe Peralta’s midseason turnaround with Tampa wasn’t a mirage, picking him as Gray’s replacement is a no-brainer. His track record in his nine years in the league speaks for itself.

MILWAUKEE –– Shohei Ohtani might be absorbing much of the negative attention around the Dodgers lately.

But it’s catcher Will Smith who has been the team’s biggest offensive problem so far this postseason.

In a 2–1 loss to the Brewers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Sunday night, the perennial All-Star’s recent struggles finally came into sharper, harsher focus.

He went hitless for the fourth time in five games in these playoffs. He bounced into a double play –– the first of three for the Dodgers on the night –– that killed a potential first-inning rally against Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski.

On the bright side, he drew a walk and didn’t strike out (something he had done seven times in the last three games).

However, the veteran slugger is now a glaring 1-for-19 in this year’s playoffs –– prompting manager Dave Roberts to be asked whether the 31-year-old needs to be dropped from the No. 3 spot of the batting order.

His answer was somewhat of a surprise.

“It’s a fair question,” Roberts acknowledged. “But right now, I still like him at the top of the order.”

The numbers, even in a small postseason sample, tell a different story to this point, with Teoscar Hernández and maybe even Andy Pages playing like better options for such a crucial part of the lineup.

Hernández had two hits Sunday, raising his postseason average to .250. Pages drove in the Dodgers’ only run, and is now 5-for-11 with three RBIs in the last three games.

Smith, meanwhile, seems to have lost the swing that helped him hit .354 over his last 16 regular seasons, following a three-month absence earlier this summer with a neck injury.

He was not in the Dodgers’ clubhouse postgame during the period that was open to reporters.

“He’s not swinging the bat well,” Roberts acknowledged. “It’s just, it’s hard because the body of work. He just has that knack to get a hit –– to get a big hit.”

Indeed, no one (other than maybe Miguel Rojas) had a bigger hit for the Dodgers last October, when Smith belted a go-ahead, championship-deciding home run in extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series.

The moment cemented his status as a franchise legend. It affirmed his reputation as one of the league’s most overlooked star hitters.

It’s part of the reason why the Dodgers aren’t even considering potentially taking him out of the lineup now, either.

“That’s just not going to happen,” Roberts said definitively while batting away that possibility.

A drop in the batting order, on the other hand, could (and probably should) be under consideration. In what figures to be a low-scoring, tightly contested NLCS, the team can only afford a black hole from the three-spot for so much longer.

And five games in, the gravity of his slump is weighing on the team.

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The Guardians have announced their roster for the ALCS, making one change from the 26 guys they brought to the ALDS.

The Guardians have swapped right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi on to the roster for the longer ALCS (with more back-to-back games) and left utility man Daniel Schneemann off the roster.

There was some speculation about if Tanner Bibee would make the roster, but he’s still here after a ROUGH end to the season and terrible brief outing in game four of the ALDS. I don’t think there was a clearly better option for Bibee’s spot, but we will see what kind of exposure Stephen Vogt allows Bibee and unused Matt Festa and Cecconi to see for the series ahead.

Again, I would have liked to see the Guardians take a shot at getting some left-handed bench thump for this series (from Kyle Manzardo or Cooper Ingle, given Ralphy Velazquez is probably not an option at this point), but, hey, they just won a playoff series, so I have to trust their plan for the moment. Just feels like it would be nice to have one more home-run threat to help in potential pinch-hitting spots.

It will be important, given the length of this series and the lack of convenient off-days, for Vogt to use almost all of his 14 pitchers. Finding the right spots to let Cecconi, Festa and Bibee have a chance to contribute may become a crucial part of the Guardians’ chance at upsetting the Rays in the days ahead.