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The unofficial first half of the season wraps up with a three-game series in Detroit. For whatever reason, recent Phillies teams haven’t done well in “getaway” games, so I’m worried that they might just try to coast through what is somewhat of a “getaway” series. I’m especially pessimistic about Sunday’s game when about half the roster will be looking ahead to All-Star festivities while facing one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Opposition research: Matt Vierling

When the Phillies traded Matt Vierling (along with Nick Maton and Donny Sands) to the Tigers in exchange for Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens, it seemed like a sensible trade. Soto was a lefthanded reliever with two All-Star appearances under his belt, and thanks to the 2022 trade for Brandon Marsh, Vierling was mostly limited to a bench role. (As for the others, Maton never amounted to much, while Clemens had his moments.)

However, Soto could never find consistency in Philadelphia, while Vierling established himself as a solid, if unspectacular everyday player for the Tigers. Ironically, the Phillies spent years searching for a righthanded platoon complement for Marsh, and Vierling seemed like he would have been a good fit for that role.

The last two seasons have not been kind to Vierling. He spent most of 2025 on the Injured List with a variety of ailments and was limited to 31 ineffective games. He’s been healthier in 2026, but the on-field results have been bad. He’s batting just .199 with five home runs, and his once solid defense in the outfield has gone downhill.

The Phillies could still use another right-handed hitting outfielder, and Vierling is likely very available for a low price. But based on recent performance, it doesn’t seem like he’d be any sort of upgrade on what they already have.

Based on the reactions of Tigers fans, if Vierling was to be traded, they wouldn’t miss him.

Hating on the Tigers

Since their last World Series win in 1984, the Tigers have made it to the Fall Classic twice, winning a grand total of one game across those series. And it sure doesn’t look like that drought is going to end in 2026.

The Phillies’ roster is top heavy (a few stars are carrying an overall subpar roster), but at least those stars have the team in playoff position. The Tigers have three All-Star position players to go along with one of the better starting rotations in the AL, and they’re still seven games under .500.

This comes after a season when they lost 13 of their 16 final games to blow a 10 game lead in the AL Central. (Yes, they still made the playoffs and even won a series, but who cares? That’s still embarrassing.)

The Tigers are likely to trade ace Tarik Skubal because they don’t think they can retain him when he hits free agency in a year. It seems funny that they’d be stingy with Skubal after handing Miguel Cabrera a lifetime achievement contract over a decade ago. (I’d advise Phillies fans not to look at the last few years of Cabrera’s career if you don’t want to have nightmares about the tail end of the Harper/Turner/Schwarber era.)

On the positive side, their mascot, Paws, is the second best mascot in baseball.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: In game six of the 1980 World Series, Pete Rose had three hits. EbbyCalvinLaLoosh answered correctly.

This week’s question: The first Phillies vs. Tigers game in history was a 7-2 Detroit win at Tiger Stadium. What former first round draft pick took the loss in that game?

Additional thought about the series

Even with Zack Wheeler on the mound, I have almost no hope for the Phillies winning on Sunday. As mentioned, this team often seems to play poorly in the final game of road trips. Add in the fact that this is the final game before the All-Star Game in Philadelphia, and that lowers their chances even more. And finally, they’ll be facing Skubal, which means I’d put their over under on runs scored in the game at one.

Prove me wrong, Phillies. Prove me wrong!

It’s mock draft season and ahead of Sunday’s draft, any Lookout Landing staffer that Kate could beg/bribe/blackmail into taking part in our staff-wide mock draft has made their selections. As far as who chose to fake GM which teams, there were varied interests at play: some of us picked our “second teams” (may someone love you in this life like Isabelle loves the Rockies); some (Max) wielded their insider knowledge of the industry; some of us went with familiar AL West adversaries; others, like Nick, operated out of pure villainy and spite. The result is a very patchwork mock draft that honestly isn’t any more far afield than several of the mocks we’ve seen, because outside of the first three-to-six picks of this draft, there’s really just no consensus. Onwards!

First Round:

1. White Sox – C Vahn Lackey, Georgia Tech (Isabelle)
   
   Almost every mock draft has one of Roch Cholowsky or Grady Emerson going first overall to the White Sox, but I couldn’t resist the siren song of potential Gold Glove catcher who took his already strong contact-hitting skills and plugged in his power tool this season – without sacrificing said contact skills. Lackey excels at both the big and little pieces that make up an exceptional catcher, and he’s athletic enough to have some positional flexibility. This pick exposes me as a dedicated Kyle Teel nonbeliever, and I’m not that sorry about it. Catcher is the banana stand of positional player draft picks to me; there will always be value in them, especially one as athletic and projectable as Lackey, and I think the White Sox would do well to take advantage here.
   
2. Rays – SS Roch Cholowsky, UCLA (John)
   
   I often like to consider myself the Mark Wahlberg of The Iliad, in that if I’d been there it wouldn’t have gone down like that. Kassandra, I hear and believe you, which is crucial because I’ve never met a gift horse I didn’t like. This one clip-clops into Tampa Bay’s hands, especially if, as Isabelle intimates, the White Sox were to take Lackey and potentially save a bit of money to splash on several later picks. Cholowsky seems like the real deal across the board, a powerful middle infielder who rarely chases or whiffs, the type of player that could fill the hole left by the appalling misconduct of Wander Franco and allow the Rays to swiftly accelerate their infield’s construction towards a full constellation of stars.
   
3. Twins – SS Grady Emerson, Fort Worth Christian HS (TX) (Jake)
   
   Quick, before Carlos Correa signed his massive free agent deal back in 2022, who is the last shortstop you can name who played for the Twins? You probably can’t because it’s been a black hole of a position for Minnesota for a long time. (Spoiler alert: it’s probably Mariners legend Jorge Polanco who compiled 8.8 fWAR as a shortstop with the Twins.) Grady Emerson has the ceiling to reverse that weakness. He’s drawn Bobby Witt Jr. comps, was named the best high school baseball player in America, and could move through the minors pretty quickly despite his young age. A slam dunk pick for the Twins at number three.
   
4. Giants – OF AJ Gracia, Virginia (Ryan)
   
   I’m the least qualified person on staff to participate in this draft, which makes me perfectly qualified to pick for the Giants. As far as I can tell, taking AJ Gracia at four overall would be a reach. But when I think Giants, I think versatile hitters willing to use the whole field. And Gracia, a centerfielder out of University of Virginia, is lauded for his approach and ability to go the other way consistently.
   
5. Pirates – RHP Jackson Flora, UC Santa Barbara (Kate)
   
   I’ve seen a lot of mock drafts that have the Pirates taking a high school outfielder here, but my thinking is the Pirates competitive window is open now and they want someone who’s going to be fast-moving and fit that window. Flora is the best college pitcher in the draft, so I’m smashing the you don’t draft for need button here and taking the 6’5” flamethrower. I did debate going college bat here instead, but Flora is just too good to pass up, and the idea of Skenes, Seth Hernandez, and Flora as a three-headed monster should terrify the NL Central. Some folks are calling them Mariners East.
   
6.  Kansas City Royals – SS Jacob Lombard, Gulliver Prep HS (FL) (Max)
   
   The Royals would likely be thrilled to see both Lombard and Eric Booth Jr. available at their pick, and I think they’ll capitalize on the situation and opt for the immensely talented shortstop out of Florida. He’s arguably got as high of a ceiling as anyone in this draft and could be a transcendent talent if it all clicks, but the concern around his hit tool carries some pretty legitimate weight to it. Things are decidedly Not Good for the Royals after a few solid years, and Lombard could headline a weaker system as a way to kick off a potential rebuild.
   
7. Baltimore Orioles – OF Drew Burress, Georgia Tech (Kate)
   
   The Orioles are said to be in on college bats, and Burress, with his picture-perfect swing, is one of the best. He’s a consistently productive power hitter despite a smaller stature and would be able to move quickly to join the Orioles’ young core. He’s a good defender who could stick in center, even though the O’s have Colton Cowser manning things there for the foreseeable future, but Burress has a safer floor than Cowser, who has struggled to hit consistently in the big leagues.
   
8. Athletics – LHP Cole Carlon, Arizona State (John)
   
   Sacramento is poised to pick three times in the top 75 thanks to a competitive balance round B pick after the second round, but they’ll be more limited than in many recent years with numerous excess selections. That’s where I see Carlon as a fit, with massive stuff as a 6’5 southpaw who was a strikeout savant at Arizona State University. He has a fastball-slider combo that is arguably the most potent in the draft, though his remaining repertoire is less advanced. Carlon is a stellar fit organizationally, however, as a player accustomed to thriving in the desert heat. Pitch mixes that elude bats entirely are crucial for a club that will be playing somewhere between Sacramento and Las Vegas in all likelihood by the time he debuts, necessitating massive contact prevention in hitter-happy environments. The A’s took a chance on Jeffrey Springs despite some struggles for getting deep into games, and seem comfortable with a high variance player. Even if things pan out frustratingly for Carlon in the third pitch department, he could swiftly be a triple-digit pumping closer, but the stuff is there for a rotation stalwart.
   
9. Atlanta Braves – OF Eric Booth Jr., Oak Grove HS (MS) (Kate)
   
   Here is where the slide for Eric Booth Jr. stops. A Vanderbilt commit, Booth Jr.’s asking price might chill some teams, but he’s arguably the best pure athlete in the draft, and that upside is worth betting on. There’s also something about EBJ that feels very Braves-y of recent vintage, whether it’s the SEC football-playing father or very high Fun Factor in watching him play due to his outstanding athleticism and undeniable swagger.
   
10. Colorado Rockies – INF Chris Hacopian, Texas A&M (Isabelle)
    
    When one Armenian has the chance to draft another Armenian, you have to take it. Blind loyalty aside, Hacopian is regarded as one of the most well-rounded hitters in the draft, with a career strikeout rate of 9.5% and consistent contact regardless of swing adjustments. He lacks speed and his defense is a weakness, making it likely he’ll transition to 2B or potentially into the outfield, but that can work for the Rockies, who have enough young athleticism to afford a little productive lumbering. This was a tough pick between Hacopian and Baby Kyle Freeland, Cameron Flukey, but ultimately I’m of the belief that the most successful Rockies teams will feature young 90s rom-com villain position players swatting the ball all over, alongside a stable of wizened, wily starters. Enjoy Flukey, Nats!
    
11. Washington Nationals – Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina (Ryan)
    
    Everyone needs organizational pitching depth, the Nationals especially. Cameron Flukey is among the best in class, standing 6’6” with a big heater and a big bender to boot. He can access just about every velocity bin between 80-100 mph, though mostly sticks with the fastball and curveball. And he throws them from visually interesting (perhaps deceptive) over-the-top arm action. He missed a couple months with a rib injury, possibly impacting his draft position. It’s not often you find this much projection outside the top 10.
    
12. Los Angeles Angels – LHP/OF Jared Grindlinger, Huntington Beach HS (CA) (Jake)
    
    The Angels infamously fumbled Shohei Ohtani’s stint on their roster. With a shot at a sliver of redemption, Los Angeles should be ecstatic to pick Jared Grindlinger, this draft class’s best two-way prospect. One of the youngest players in the class, Grindlinger is all raw tools and moldable clay. The Angels have largely focused on drafting MLB-ready college players over the last half decade in an effort to try and quickly supplement their big league roster. When I chose to represent the Angels in this mock draft, I decided upfront to pick the toolsiest high schooler available, just to break that mold. Grindlinger is a long-term project for their development group that could pay big dividends way down the road.
    
13. St. Louis Cardinals – SS Tyler Bell, Kentucky (John)
    
    St. Louis has an enviable position in this draft. While they select just 13th overall, they boast the sixth-biggest draft bonus pool of any club in the league thanks to multiple additional picks accrued through competitive balance awardings and trades (including the Brendan Donovan deal). That’s not the initial draw of Bell, who is a college junior that had a taste of turning down the pros already when he headed to Kentucky for school after being selected in the second round back in 2024 by the Rays. Bell is versatile on both sides of the ball, covering the infield and both sides of the dish with aplomb. St. Louis has turned out many excellent multi-positional performers in recent years, including Donovan, Tommy Edman, and Edmundo Sosa. Bell is a superior shortstop to all of them, while rocking a well-rounded offensive profile that the Redbirds will be eager to cultivate. His selection here will open St. Louis up for several bigger swings in their next few picks.
    
14. Miami Marlins – OF Derek Curiel, Louisiana State (Kate)
    
    The Marlins have prized youth and athleticism, specifically power-speed combos, with recent picks, but I have them pivoting here to take an established college bat in Curiel, a member of LSU’s title-winning team alongside Kade Anderson. Curiel, a draft-eligible sophomore, still fits the Marlins’ mold of picking young players, and provides a safe floor to counteract some of the Marlins’ bigger swings in recent years. I had hoped that Hacopian or Bell would be available here because the Marlins could use infield help, and debated between Curiel and one of the college catchers, who I think also makes sense here.
    
15. Arizona Diamondbacks – OF Trevor Condon, Etowah HS (GA) (John)
    
    Few clubs target players like this the way the Diamondbacks do. A lefty outfielder with elite speed, a funky, line-drive oriented swing, and maximum effort play? This is the archetype from which Corbin Carroll was born, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas were hoped to mold into, and even what Ketel Marte began his career in Arizona as. Condon’s hack is almost a modern Lenny Dykstra, and the Georgia prep is in a position to be a huge asset for Arizona’s massive outfield while utilizing its spacious gaps to run wild and slash triples. While his name and Georgia ties might indicate a relation to UGA star and Rockies farmhand Charlie Condon, there is no connection.
    
16. Texas Rangers – LHP Gio Rojas, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (Max)
    
    Rojas is far too good for the Rangers to pass up here, and their second rounder last year (AJ Russell) has a similar low-launch, fastball-oriented style that clearly popped on their model. Most have Rojas as the clear-cut number one high school arm in this class, and Texas’ farm system is in no shape to be passing up on potentially elite talent.
    
17. Houston Astros – SS Justin Lebron, Alabama (Nick)
    
    I do believe that there’s an outside chance that Jim Crane might believe that he’s got a shot at signing LeBron James here, and push this pick through. But the real-life scouts and analysts would be delighted to find him on the board this late. They can teach him to put the bat on the ball. The rest (power, speed, defense, makeup) is already ready to go. 
    
18. Cincinnati Reds – OF Sawyer Strosnider, Texas Christian (John)
    
    This is a great get for Cincy at 18. Strosnider has the makings of an absolute star, in an organization that has been staggeringly bereft of consistency or competency, much less excellence in the outfield. The only four seasons with >2.0 fWAR since 2021 for the Reds have been TJ Freidl twice, who is having an atrocious campaign as he’s frequently been wont to do in between, and 2021 where both Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos had big hitting campaigns. It’s a huge hole, but Strosnider has the goods to overcome it. He’s got plus power and speed, enough to be a center fielder whose skills around the diamond cover every element of the game. He’s only shown some occasional overaggression at the dish, but still draws free passes with aplomb when he’s not slugging bombs.
    
19. Cleveland Guardians – C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas (Jake)
    
    With Bo Naylor looking like a bust at catcher, the Guardians traded for Patrick Bailey to shore up the position in the big leagues. This pick in the draft poses the question, “what if you could have the next Bailey but add a league average bat to the equation?” Helfrick is the best defensive catcher in this draft class with 60 to 70 grades placed on his work behind the plate. He enjoyed a bit of an offensive breakout this year, blasting 18 home runs for the Razorbacks. He still strikes out a ton, which gives him a bit of a Mike Zunino-esque profile, but the ceiling should be high enough to entice Cleveland to pick him here.
    
20.  Boston Red Sox – 3B Ace Reese, Mississippi State (Kate)
    
    The Red Sox like power and Reese provides plenty of it, having hit 20+ homers in each of his first two collegiate seasons with the Bulldogs. Sure, he’s probably more of a 1B at the next level and he’s already not particularly fast, but no need to hurry around the bases when you’re knocking homers over the Pesky Pole. The whiff rate is a little concerning, which is why this is a pick at 20 instead of a pick at 10, and if it calms down in pro ball after the pressure of the draft is off, the Red Sox will have added an advanced power bat to a system that’s already rich, varied, and deep.
    
21.  San Diego Padres – SS Archer Horn, St. Ignatius Prep (CA) (Max)
    
    Toolsy California prep with tons of helium? Sounds like a Padre.
    
22. Detroit Tigers – RHP Coleman Borthwick, South Walton HS (FL) (John)
    
    Resist the urge to say his name in the cadence of Big man Blastoise as you might, it comes to you in the night. Borthwick is a 6’6, 260 lbs threat of a youth that is a straightforward answer to the question of “why is the United States so underwhelming at men’s soccer?” The athletic righty is a two-way player as a prospect, capable of being a third baseman who can slug, but it’s unlikely we’ll see him afforded the opportunity in the pros. Still, he’s sitting mid-90s with a great heater and multiple solid breaking pitches as an 18 year old, with a compact and tidy delivery he repeats well. While it’s unlikely Seattle goes prep pitcher from our perspective, this would be the guy if he falls to the M’s. As it is, I’ve termed the Tigers to take the polished prep, whose solid system is laughably tilted towards position players.
    
23. Chicago Cubs – RHP Liam Peterson, Florida (Kate)
    
    The Cubs would be thrilled to see Peterson at 23: a 6’5” hurler who leads with his fastball but also possesses a wipeout slider, a hammer curve, and a changeup. With long levers and a whippy delivery, there are shades of Logan Gilbert here, although Peterson pitched against tougher competition in the SEC. Baseball America recently declared him, not Flora, the best pitcher in the class, so it’s bonkers he’s available here at 23 – not even the first college lefty pitcher off our board. That just goes to show you how polarizing this particular draft is outside of the top 5 or 6 picks (although we couldn’t even agree on those. Viva la chaos!)
    
24.  Seattle Mariners – OF Logan Hughes, Texas Tech (Max)
    
    I was lucky enough to pull the M’s in this endeavor and wound up going with a bat I really think could be in the mix for them at 24. It’s not the sexiest pick in the world, but Hughes is easily one of the most well rounded bats in this class and comes with a level of polish that’s hard to find this late into the first round. Being a left field exclusive at this point in your career is tough and definitely brings down the shine of his overall profile, but I went with someone that is both a great player and a realistic candidate to make it to their pick. Louisville outfielder Zion Rose was strongly considered, and though I think there’s a case to be made for him over Hughes, my gut says Hughes is more likely to be available when it all shakes out this weekend, and frankly, I prefer to bet on the bat of Hughes over the speed of Rose. Regardless, they are both talented players that could easily wind up being the Mariners’ guy on Saturday night.
    
25.  Milwaukee Brewers – LHP Hunter Dietz, Arkansas (Jake)
    
    An elbow injury derailed Hunter Dietz’s first two seasons at Arkansas but he returned healthy this year to post a 36.2% strikeout rate in 16 starts. He already possesses a plus cutter and slider and his fastball sits in the mid 90s and can reach 98 mph. His curveball and changeup are works-in-progress, but the fastball-cutter-slider foundation is so good that he should move quickly through the minors once he’s drafted. The Brewers aren’t exactly starved for pitching, but Dietz gives them a potential mid-rotation arm to bolster their big league roster.

Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks

26. Atlanta Braves – RHP Cade Townsend, Ole Miss (Kate)

Speaking truth to power (it’s me I’m power), I don’t know that Townsend makes it past the Mariners – he’s exactly the kind of college pitcher Seattle has had success with, boasting a deep arsenal over pure stuff with a real ability to spin the ball. Atlanta has valued something similar in pitching prospects, though, showing a willingness to look beyond pure stuff and chase long-term upside. The next order of business will be to properly anoint the Ole Miss prospect so he avoids the eldritch curse that hangs over Atlanta’s pitching. UPDATE: The curse that hangs over Atlanta’s pitching is so strong that apparently Townsend already has a shoulder injury which might push him a little further down draft boards.

27. New York Mets – 3B Bo Lowrance, Christ Church Episcopal HS (SC) (Isabelle)

After this pick, the Mets don’t have another until No.92. No pressure! That being said, it’s not my ass in the jackpot, so we’re swingin’ big with Bo Lowrance. BoLow is a Virginia commit and expected to be a tough sign, but you know who’s great at throwing money around? Your New York Mets.

28. Houston Astros – 1B Myles Bailey, Florida State (Nick)

Myles Bailey is the perfect pick for the Astros here. He’s a hulking lad with light tower power. That’s it. 

Competitive Balance Round A

29. San Francisco Giants – LHP Carson Bolemon, Southside Christian HS (SC) (Ryan)

Carson Bolemon. The ‘D’ is silent in America. It’s ‘Bo De Le Monde,’ or Bole The Isle of Man, in France, or Boledman in Greece, or finally the vulgar Bolemon in South Carolina, so actually, we don’t know where he’ll be drafted until we hear his last name pronounced.

30. Kansas City Royals – LHP Mason Edwards, Southern California (Max)

No qualified collegian struck out opponents at a higher rate than the 6’2 southpaw. There’s an element of Reid Detmers here for a pitching-savvy club to cultivate further, with a heater on the lower end in the low-90s, but bat-missing ride and VAA. His breaking ball tunnels brilliantly with the pitch, as a breaking ball that utterly baffled Big Ten opponents. There’s always some risk for pitchers who dominate with curveballs in the lower levels, as the big leagues seem to be better attuned to them compared to firmer sliders, but Edwards has one that could beat the odds.

31. Arizona Diamondbacks – RHP Tegan Kuhns, University of Tennessee (John)

Anywhere from the teens onward could be a landing spot for Kuhns, who has the type of stuff Seattle has often targeted as well. Instead, the Diamondbacks will get a chance to push the lean righty up their organizational ladder at a potentially rapid pace. Kuhns is a strike-thrower with a heater in the 94-99 range that he uses predominantly, ahead of any of his secondaries although they show promise. This is the second straight year the Volunteers of Tennessee have one of the top pitchers in the class with a profile arguably only carried by a single elite fastball. Kuhns lacks quite the hype of Liam Doyle, but he’s worthy of first round billing.

32. St. Louis Cardinals – RHP Joseph Contreras, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA) (John)

This is a spot for a prep pitcher if I’ve ever seen one. I’ve given the Cardinals the leeway to make such a swing by snagging the stellar-but-signable Bell in round one, allowing them to swing that big bonus pool around a bit in Comp Round A. Contreras is familiar with big swings, and is presumably the only eligible draftee who can boast having jammed Aaron Judge for a GiDP in a live game. The 18 year old Vanderbilt commit pitched for Brazil in the World Baseball Classic this spring, showcasing major league stuff and high school nerves. His lean frame whips in excellent velocity and, most impressively, an elite forkball like his father. He is the son of Cuban big league stalwart José Contreras, who spent 11 years in the big leagues, debuting at age 31 after a decade starring in his native Cuba. The All-Star had his finest season as part of the Chicago White Sox’ legendary World Series winning 2005 rotation, part of the legacy of connection between the ChiSox and Cuba. His son may also be destined to thrive in the midwest.

33. Tampa Bay Rays – SS Connor Comeau, Anderson HS (TX) (John)

He’s no Perry, but this Comeau can flat out hit. The Rays have prioritized athleticism and contact skills in their hitters, and the 17 year old Comeau is promising in both regards. While the 6’4 youngster might drift to third base, he’s got the goods to stick there comfortably.

34. Pittsburgh Pirates – OF Zion Rose, Louisville (Kate)

The Pirates double up on collegiates in my version of a hard pivot from their past draft tendencies, but Rose is an exciting, toolsy player who was getting draft looks as a high schooler at IMG. He went to Louisville instead where he transitioned off catcher and into the outfield, a testament to his natural athleticism – he’s a double-plus runner, which should help him in the spacious confines of PNC Park. Hit-wise, it’s a contact-oriented profile that’s currently more hit over power, but a strong, athletic frame and quick bat should translate into better power numbers as he matures as a pro.

35. New York Yankees – 1B Gavin Grahovac, Texas A&M (Nick)

I picked the best available player with a beard, because the Yankees love to cause emotional pain. 

36. Philadelphia Phillies – SS Aiden Ruiz, Stony Brook HS (NY) (Isabelle)

It’s hard to properly emphasize just how much of an exception Gage Wood was last year for the Phillies draft strategy. They like ‘em preppy and they like ‘em flashy, and Ruiz is one of, if not the best, defensive shortstops in this class. I implore you to watch some of his highlights. Forget Gold Gloves, this is the Golden Ratio of shortstop fielding.

37. Colorado Rockies – RHP Broccoli Rabe, Ole Miss (Isabelle)

Now you get pitching, Rockies. Rabe was an intriguing prep arm out of South Carolina, who underwent Tommy John before his freshman year and was used sparingly up until this season. He’s been a fast riser in recent months, powered by pinpoint control, stellar fastball and a very adult arsenal (a particular point of appeal in making this match, inspired by Antonio Senzatella’s success in throwing the kitchen sink this season). There’s a very real chance he is better than at least three Rockies currently pitching in the bigs. (Ed. note: this young man’s name is Taylor Rabe, despite everything we’d love to have you believe – JT)

WHEW that was a lot. And we swear we only made one of those names up. Here’s the full breakdown:

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The surging Atlanta Braves take on the St. Louis Cardinals this evening at Busch Stadium. 

My Braves vs. Cardinals predictions are eyeing Atlanta's red-hot offense to provide the dominant Chris Sale with run support. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 10. 

Who will win Braves vs Cardinals tonight: Braves -1.5 (+109)

The Atlanta Braves send Chris Sale to the hill tonight. He's compiled a 2.81 FIP over his last four outings while allowing just 0.81 HR/9. Additionally, the lefty has held opponents to a 3.1% barrel rate during that span.

The St. Louis Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy. He's been impressive lately, compiling a 2.85 xERA across his previous two starts. However, Leahy has allowed a 47.8% hard-hit rate, and he's up against a Braves lineup carrying a .252 ISO and 135 wRC+ over the last seven games.

Leahy's recent results could be difficult to sustain against a lineup producing this much power and overall offense.

I'll play this pick up to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Sale has a 2.54 FIP on the road, compared to a 3.26 mark at home this season. 

Braves vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-126)

We have a solid pitching matchup here, and both bullpens have held their own lately. Atlanta's relief corps owns a 3.88 FIP over the last week while allowing just 0.88 HR/9. The Cardinals aren't exactly thriving at the plate either, carrying a 90 wRC+ over their last eight games.

St. Louis' bullpen has compiled a 3.47 FIP across its last 33.1 innings while holding opponents to a 34% hard-hit rate and 0.54 HR/9.

Atlanta's offense is flourishing, and I expect some production, but Leahy's recent form could prevent a full explosion. Sale often works deep into games, and Atlanta's bullpen has been reliable.

I'll play this pick up to -140.

Braves vs Cardinals weather

Conditions will be warm and humid at Busch Stadium tonight, with temperatures around 87 degrees early before falling to 80 later in the evening. Winds will be very light at 1-3 mph, while rain chances range from 24% to 38%. A brief shower is possible, but weather should have limited impact overall.

Braves vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Braves -150 | Cardinals +144
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-117)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Braves vs Cardinals trend

The Braves have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Braves vs Cardinals and game info

Braves vs Cardinals latest injuries

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This magic carpet ride that Luis Garcia Jr. is on just keeps going. His insane June has carried over into July, with the Nats first baseman slugging as much as ever. After he hit 11 homers in June, he already has 4 in July. The 26 year old has 10 homers in his last 15 games and 15 in his last 30.

I have never seen anything like this before, especially from a player whose previous career high in homers was 18. Garcia already has 20 home runs, 15 of which have come since June 5th. In his last 15 games, Garcia has a truly insane 1.567 OPS. You can just keep going with these numbers, but as Mark DeRosa put it, he has had a career year, and we have not even gotten to the All-Star Break.

There have been so many success stories on the offensive side of the ball. Choosing who the best story is changes by the day. Right now, you have to give that title to Garcia. He has always had an exciting combination of hitting ability and power, but has taken it to the next level this year. Garcia is doing that by swinging harder, hitting the ball harder, and not sacrificing any contact ability in the process.

To be more specific, Garcia’s bat speed is up 1.2 MPH, his average exit velocity is up 2 MPH and his whiff rate is actually down 2.7%. His bat speed is in the 67th percentile, the average exit velocity is in the 90th percentile and the whiff rate is in the 80th percentile. 

Spencer Nusbaum of the Athletic wrote a great article about Garcia and the Nats offense, where he also talked about just how rare his contact and power combination is. Garcia is one of six players with a hard hit rate over 45% and a whiff rate under 20%. Usually hitters have contact skills or power, but Garcia has both.

For a long time, most people including myself thought the key to unlocking Garcia was somehow finding a way to lower his chase rates. However, that is not what is happening here. Garcia is actually chasing more than ever, but his strengths have become so strong that it does not really matter. 

One other part of Spencer’s article that I really enjoyed was when he talked about Garcia’s personality. He is a goofy, fun loving guy who keeps things light in the locker room. Even from the outside, it is easy to see that Garcia is quite a bubbly guy. He is the player at the end of the Nats home run line in the dugout, at least when he is not hitting them. Garcia is often the player pouring water on guys in post game interviews or throwing sunflower seeds on them after homers.

Garcia can goof around, but he is also becoming more of a leader as well. He is the longest tenured National now, despite just turning 26. When I am in the locker room, I have noticed that other players gravitate towards him. This is especially true for other Spanish speaking players, but it is not just those guys.

It feels like the Nats new regime is letting Garcia be himself, and it is bringing out the best version of him. This version of Garcia is so much fun to watch. He is hitting homers almost every night and setting career highs in early July.

Despite all of this success, I doubt Garcia is going to start tonight. This has been happening for a couple years now, but Garcia does not play a whole lot against left handed pitching. He just does not perform as well, and the staff wants to put him in a position to succeed. It is frustrating to see a hitter this hot not play every day, but the numbers show this is the right move.

Garcia has always had big platoon splits, and this year is no different. He is hitting .300 with a .927 OPS against righties, but those numbers drop to .229 and .650 against left handers. Andres Chaparro has not proven to be the best platoon partner, but the Nats could have the perfect fit on the way in Yohandy Morales. 

Luis Garcia Jr. has suddenly become one of the most electric players in baseball. Honestly, it is quite surreal to watch. Garcia has always had clear talent as a hitter, but never put it together. Now, at 26 years old, many years into his big league career, that breakout has finally come.

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Friday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.

Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+238
Kody Clemens	+339
Rafael Devers	+380

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+238)

My mouth waters when I see the name Cal Quantrill, because he is simply a gift to us home run-loving sons of guns.

So far this season against left-handed bats, the Rangers starter is allowing a 76.6% elevation rate, 15.6% barrel rate, and 40% hard-hit rate. Those hitters are generating a .460 xSLG and .377 xwOBA against him.

Yordan Alvarez enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box while covering all of Quantrill’s pitches. In 22 games this season when Alvarez has received an elite rating, he has left the yard 31.82% of the time. Over the last 3 seasons, he has hit a home run in 21% of his games with an elite rating across 233 appearances.

Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Alvarez has maintained a .286 BA, .551 SLG, .968 OPS, and .265 ISO while generating a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 19.4% barrel rate.

Leave the yard and make our Friday great, Yordan.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CW33, SCHN

Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+339)

The Rocket's son finds himself in another boom spot, as he draws Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Friday. Kody Clemens enters the matchup with an elite rating while covering over 91% of Rodriguez’s subpar pitch mix. In 27 elite-rated matchups this season, the Twins slugger has left the yard 22.22% of the time.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Clemens has been crushing the baseball, posting a .561 SLG, .844 OPS, and .298 ISO while generating a 58.7% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.

Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a 52.2% hard-hit rate and a 67.4% elevation rate. Lefties have also posted a .361 batting average, .651 SLG, and .469 wOBA against him.

With both sides generating plenty of hard contact, this feels like another spot for the Twins slugger to leave the yard.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, ABTV

Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+380)

It is hard to pass up a near 4-to-1 home run price on someone who has been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching. Over his last 60 plate appearances against righties, Giants slugger Rafael Devers  owns a .388 BA, .980 SLG, 1.480 OPS and .592 ISO, while generating a 55% hard hit rate and 20% barrel rate.

Devers draws Tanner Gordon, whom he holds a 64.8% arsenal coverage rating against across his entire pitch mix. Gordon’s arsenal grades below league average on FanGraphs, and he has been getting hit hard by left-handed bats, allowing a 62.7% elevation rate and 50.7% hard hit rate, while surrendering a .716 SLG and .454 wOBA.

On Batters-Box, Devers owns the highest matchup rating on the slate using the default ratings dating back the last 3 seasons. In 247 elite ratings, Devers has gone deep 22% of the time.

This is one of my favorite long ball matchups of the day. Let Devers MASH!

• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSBA, COLR

Today’s HR parlay

Yordan Alvarez	Bet Now +6700
Kody Clemens
Rafael Devers

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