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“And I love that dirty water … Boston you’re my ho—” oh, whoops, didn’t see you there. I was, uh, yeah I was celebrating the turnaround of the 2026 Boston Red Sox, I didn’t think I’d have to work today jeez. (takes off hat and Roman Anthony jersey) Oh, you want to know about the streak? Okay, let me get my glasses and then we can talk.

(ahem) The Boston Red Sox are on an absolute tear. They’ve gone 20-3 since June 25, won 15 straight games to tie their franchise record streak from the 1940s (!) and have turned around basically every aspect of their 2026 disasterclass to wrest control of the third American League Wild Card spot from the jaws of a confusing game of Musical Chairs/Duck Duck Goose. How on earth did we get here, and what does it all mean?

Since they began their fire-breathing rampage through everything in their path, the Red Sox have essentially doubled the offensive output of four players without seeing a major drop-off from anyone they were counting on for runs. Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs explains it all really well here, and has a nice table that shows how four guys — Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio, Masataka Yoshida and Caleb Durbin — have seen dramatic spikes in their wRC+ and associated power metrics since June 25. 

That list doesn’t even really account for the impact of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, who have been less consistent but defensively elite with some huge hits in big spots for both. Probably the most dramatic moment of the streak (tied with Caleb Durbin’s home run) was Abreu’s impossible go-ahead two-run shot against the Tampa Bay Rays after Boston had fallen down three. Baseball is funny like that; consistency wins divisions, but at the end of the day, when you need a home run right now… someone needs to hit one right now.

In short, this team was “clutch,” a dark word in baseball given that clutch sorta doesn’t exist for teams. Well, it does, and we have clutch stats to back it up: in the last 30 days, the Boston Red Sox are by far the most clutch team (which just calculates how much win probability you add in high-leverage spots) with 4.27 Clutch (wow that sounds weird to say). That is an insane number, and more than doubles Detroit at number two. 

But for the whole season, Boston has been the opposite of clutch; distinctively, un-clutch, one could say, at -1.31, which 24th in the Majors for the full season which includes this streak. And there’s no evidence that certain teams are “clutch” month over month, year over year or that clutch performances can be used as predictive for future clutch play. Jeff Sullivan wrote a great breakdown of this data in 2018, and I’ll quote from his piece here to illustrate the point: 

“There’s no historical reason to believe [clutch is] a trait. It’s all just a collection of things that have happened. Things at important times that have wound up deciding ballgames.”

That is, in essence, what Boston’s 15-game win streak was about. “Things at important times” decided a number of close ballgames in a row for one team. And while it should not be used to say anything about the 2026 Boston Red Sox being a clutch team (they literally aren’t, see above), the fact that they were clutch for 30 days was the difference between the 2026 season sitting at the bottom of the Boston Harbor to rot for eternity with that tea from 1773 and becoming a buyer at the trade deadline. They brought a crane and fished the season out.

For the 2026 Red Sox, clutch does exist; maybe not as a trait, but as an event that happened and is perhaps still happening that had a seismic impact on their destiny, relationship with the city and with each other. “Things at important times” may not be something we can predict, but it still feels pretty darn awesome when they happen. Boston needed exactly that type of run (or at least something close to it) to save a season in which absolutely nothing has gone right. And they did it! 

Could we have predicted it? Nope! At least not to that extent — I’ve written a lot about these Red Sox, and while they were basically always better than their putrid 32-46 record, the production they’re getting out of Durbin, Yoshida and Monasterio was not the recipe for success I had in the recipe book.

If we’re being cold and calculated, Boston will need more talent in this lineup if they’re going to oh I don’t know win the World Series or something ridiculous. Roman Anthony will need to return from the longest and most impossibly torturous Red Sox injury saga since peak Chris Sale, and Garrett Crochet will need to be back for the postseason.

Do the Red Sox believe that can happen? If they do, then buyers will be buying.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road tonight, and they enter the series opener against the New York Mets as a clear -138 moneyline favorite. 

However, with the struggling Roki Sasaki on the hill, my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions see value in the hosts as an underdog. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 24. 

Who will win Dodgers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (+119)

Roki Sasaki has been in horrible form for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's posted a 7.28 FIP over his last four appearances.

During that span, he's allowed a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. Sasaki is incredibly inconsistent, and the Mets are averaging a 40.5% hard-hit rate in the last five games. 

The New York Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Although his 4.76 xERA across the last month is nothing to write home about, the Dodgers haven’t shown much power against lefties, posting a .166 ISO in that split, and the Mets bullpen has been lights out lately with a 3.06 xERA in the last week. 

The Mets jump on Sasaki, and Manaea limits the damage enough before handing things over to the pen. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

COVERS INTEL: Sasaki has surrendered 2.89 HR/9 over his last four starts, compared to 1.97 HR/9 overall this season. 

Dodgers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+114)

This total sits at 9.5, and the bullpen situation gives the Over a realistic path. The Dodgers pen has been shaky lately, posting a 5.07 FIP over its last 19.1 innings while giving up 1.86 HR/9.

That’s important against a Mets lineup that has been solid recently, carrying a 103 wRC+ over the last week. 

Los Angeles hasn’t been as productive, sitting at 92 wRC+ during that span, but Manaea’s vulnerabilities over the last month still leave room for the Dodgers to contribute at the dish. 

If the Mets get to Sasaki early, it creates a clear path to the Over, especially given LA's bullpen struggles.

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

Dodgers vs Mets weather

Conditions should be very favorable at Citi Field tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the upper 70s into the low 70s. Winds will be light at roughly 6 to 9 mph, and there is no rain concern. Weather should have minimal impact on scoring or ball carry.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -133 | New York +127
• Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+122) | New York +1.5 (-127)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)

Dodgers vs Mets trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.

How to watch Dodgers vs Mets and game info

Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries

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We've got a stacked slate of MLB action tonight, so let's fill up those cards and kick off the weekend on a high note!

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 24.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
German Marquez	Under 3.5 Strikeouts	-138
Munetaka Murakami	1+ Hit	-156
Tomoyuki Sugano	Over 5.5 Hits Allowed	-132

German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Entering Friday, San Diego Padres right-hander German Marquez owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate among today's starters, according to Batters-Box.

On top of that, he has to face five elite-rated hitters and two hitters with strong ratings. The Miami Marlins also do not have a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

In 31 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Marquez has gone under this prop 58.06% of the time. Across his last five starts, he owns just a 13.83% strikeout rate.

Even with the Marlins going through a cold stretch over the last few weeks, there is too much data on their side against Marquez for me to have any concern.

The right-hander has struggled recently, posting a 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits (-156)

If you are not in the juice paying business, take Munetaka Murakami's hits+runs+RBI prop instead. However, at this price, the floor is well worth it in my book.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has maintained a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

Not to mention, he enters Friday evening with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he records a hit 66.67% of the time. He also covers over 73% of Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal.

Arrighetti throws fastballs and curveballs 68.9% of the time, and Murakami has found success against both offerings. He owns an expected batting average of at least .378 and is generating at least a 60% hard hit rate against each pitch.

Arrighetti has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, and his recent outings have not shown much improvement. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 42.4% hard hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and just a 24.2% ground ball rate.

I think Murakami is due for a big outing at the dish. Give me the floor at -156. 

• Time: 7:40p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132)

According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the highest rated offense on the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who own an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501.

To put that number into perspective, a hitter matchup rating above 0.450 is considered "elite." Milwaukee enters Friday with five elite-rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings.

Despite the Brewers' recent cold streak, I fully expect them to get after Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano this evening. Sugano enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters.

When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he allows 5+ hits 70.37% of the time, 6+ hits 55.56% of the time, and 7+ hits 29.63% of the time. In his last ten poorly rated outings, he has allowed 6+ hits in six games.

I would play this down to -135 at the most, or look toward the Brewers to go Over their first five team total.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, BREW

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Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out yesterday’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (49-48) POSTPONED

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (43-49) POSTPONED

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-60) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Oakes started for Asheville and went 3.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Frey solo home run. After the Hot Rods got a run in the 6th, Batista tied the game in the 7th with a 2 run home run. The Hot Rods immediately retook the lead though with a run in the bottom of the 7th. Asheville was unable to score again as they fell 4-3.

Note: Frey has a .773 OPS in High-A.

• Ethan Frey, LF: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-3, BB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Freuddy Batista, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Jordan Carr, LHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (46-45) won 10-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first on a Luciano RBI double. They broke it open in the 3rd scoring 5 runs on a Luciano RBI single, Flores groundout, Fielder RBI single and Cauro 2 run home run. In the 5th inning, Fielder added an RBI triple. The offense got 2 more runs in the 6th on a wild pitch and Sierra sac fly. Beck got the start for the Woodpeckers and was great tossing 6 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. Fielder added a run in the 8th on a bases loaded hit by pitch. Shoemaker tossed 2 scoreless innings in relief and Rosario closed it out allowing 2 runs as the Woodpeckers won 10-2.

Note: Luciano is hitting .400 over his last 14 games.

• Josh Wakefield, CF: 3-for-6, 2 R, 2 2B, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 4-for-6, R, 2B, 2 RBI, SB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 2-for-3, R, 3B, 3 RBI, BB
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• DJ Newman, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (WIN)
• Adam Shoemaker, LHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

AV: Andrew Taylor – 6:35 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

The Trade Deadline is just over a week away and the Cubs are expected to be aggressive buyers. So now is a good time to see what prospects the Cubs have that might interest other teams.

The Cubs farm system has had a good first half of the season. Both Double-A Knoxville and High-A South Bend won their first-half division titles. Several prospects, most notably Josiah Hartshorn and Owen Ayers, took huge steps forward and have established themselves among the Top 100 prospects in the game. I also think the Cubs had a good draft, although time will tell on that. But four recent draft picks made my new Top 25.

Several players have graduated off of my pre-season list. Pre-season top prospect Moisés Ballesteros may be back in the minors, but he exceeded the 120 plate appearances in the majors before going back down. Neither Kevin Alcántara nor Pedro Ramírez have 120 plate appearances yet, but both do have the 45 days in the majors, which is another marker of the end of prospect status. But it should be noted that while Mo Baller, the Jaguar and Ramírez (someone get Pedro a nickname!) are no longer considered prospects, they are the kinds of players with potential and six years of team control that teams are looking for when trading with the Cubs.

Here is where I see the Cubs’ Top 25 prospects at the moment. I think this list is a lot deeper than the one that I made this past winter. Still, there isn’t a lot of difference between someone ranked 19 and 25 nor between someone ranked in the 20s and a lot of people I didn’t rank. So if you’re asking “Why isn’t [so-and-so] here?,” the answer is almost certainly “I could have put him on instead of [player name].”

A quick reminder that this year’s draft picks—Cade Townsend, Brandon Sorrell, Myles Bailey and Carson Jasa—cannot be traded at the Deadline.

As always, I don’t rank players still in the Dominican Summer League. However, those players will also be available for trades. But major league teams only rarely want players that young and that far away from the majors in Deadline deals.

BCB Cubs top 25 prospects: Mid-season update

1. Josiah Hartshorn 1B/OF
2. Jefferson Rojas INF
3. Owen Ayers C
4. Kane Kepley OF
5. Cade Townsend RHP
6. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
7. Ethan Conrad OF
8. Kaleb Wing RHP
9. Caden Sorrell OF
10. James Triantos 2B/OF
11. Jonathon Long 1B/LF
12. Myles Bailey 1B
13. Ty Southisene SS
14. Brooks Caple RHP
15. Dominick Reid RHP
16. Juan Cabada 2B
17. Jostin Florentino RHP
18. Mason McGwire RHP 
19. Brett Bateman OF
20. Will Sanders RHP
21. Nazier Mulé RHP 
22. Jose Escobar LF/2B
23. Carson Jasa RHP
24. Grant Kipp RHP
25. Pierce Coppola LHP

Josiah Hartshorn has been struggling a bit lately, but he still shows an advanced approach at the plate and excellent power. There’s some risk here from the hit tool, maybe more than some of us would like to admit, but he’s probably one of the top 40 prospects in baseball right now and probably off-limits for all likely trades.

Jefferson Rojas, still just 21, is having an excellent season in Double-A after struggling in his first exposure there last year. With the Cubs major league infield set for the near future, he’s a strong candidate to get dealt.

Owen Ayers built off that strong Arizona Fall League performance and has played his way all the way up to Triple-A. He’s still a bat-over-glove catcher, but his defense is getting better and his arm has always been strong. Teams will ask about him and while I don’t think he’s off-limits, the Cubs will be loathe to deal him for anything short of a haul.

Kane Kepley is an on-base machine who steals a ton of bases. He’s also a very good defensive center fielder. With Pete Crow-Armstrong ensconced in center for the foreseeable future, Kepley has to be considered a trade candidate for the right price.

The injuries to Jaxon Wiggins have me moving him just behind first-round draft pick Cade Townsend. With the Townsend pick, Wiggins becomes more available. I’m not sure, however, that Wiggins has time enough to re-establish his value before next Monday for the Cubs to get enough back to deal him.

Ethan Conrad has only just started playing after being last year’s first-round pick. So far, he hasn’t looked all that impressive in Low-A Myrtle Beach, but he’s also missed more than a year of playing time. So it may just be rust.

James Triantos is making his major-league debut today. He’s re-established some value after a strong season in Iowa. But while Triantos could be a major league starter, he lacks the power to be an impact player and his major league role and skill set is duplicated by Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez, whom I’d argue do it better.

Ty Southisene is currently injured, but his value has gone up this year as he’s hit .302 with a .422 OBP. He’s also proven that he can at minimum play an adequate shortstop, which gives him a lot more utility infielder value. He has yet to hit his first professional home run, which lowers his value

Juan Cabada makes my list for the first time after playing in the Arizona Complex League. He showed a solid bat as an 18-year-old before he got injured at the end of May. He has not returned to the field since then.

I still think Mason McGwire is a reliever at the major league level, but after missing all of 2025, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year with better stuff and much-improved command. There’s also always the chance I’m wrong and McGwire ends up as a starter. I can imagine the A’s or the Cardinals asking for McGwire in any potential trade.

I’m still quite suspicious of Brett Bateman as his .306 batting average in Iowa is driven by a very high batting average on balls in play. He also has almost no power. But Bateman also makes a lot of contact, walks about as much as he strikes out, steals a lot of bases and plays good defense in center field. He’s more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, but he’s also in Triple-A and close to major-league ready.

Nazier Mulé touches 100 miles per hour and has greatly improved his control this year. He still walks too many batters, but he’s moving in the right direction. It should be noted that Mulé didn’t devote himself full-time to pitching until the Cubs drafted him out of high school in 2022.

Jose Escobar is having a breakout season in South Bend, in large part because he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 20.8 percent to 13 percent. The fact that he’s looking more “left fielder” than “second baseman” hurts his value, but a team that thinks he can still play second base might value him higher.

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In a recent Trade Deadline-focused piece for The Athletic, writer Jim Bowden proposed a trade between the Cubs and Royals that he would like to see:

Cubs receive: Michael Wacha, RHP

Royals receive: Matt Shaw, INF/OF; Kevin Alcántara, OF

[…]

In return, the Royals get two young bats who can’t crack the Cubs’ starting lineup in Shaw and Alcántara. Shaw, 24, can play second base, third base and corner outfield. As an everyday player, he projects to have 15-20 home run power. Alcántara, 23, has never been given a legitimate chance with Chicago, but he’s having another strong season in Triple A.

Both players are 24. Shaw is nominally a third baseman, but has played primarily in right field with some second and first mixed in. Alcántara is a centerfielder. Shaw was considered the 22nd overall best prospect in MLB by FanGraphs when he graduated last year and was hitting about league average before being sidelined with an injury on June 29th. He still needs to tap into some game power to be as good as he’s projected, but the projections are very good indeed.

Alcántara is still considered a prospect, and the fifth best in the Cubs’ system, despite debuting in 2024 due to a lack of plate appearances at the big league level. On his third run at AAA, he’s doing quite well for himself with a .936 OPS and a double-digit walk rate. He strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time, but if he can access in the big leagues the power that’s seen him hit 17 home runs in 55 AAA games this year, he could be a very valuable player indeed. Despite having well-graded speed, he’s never stolen as many as 20 bases in a single season.

Ideally, I think the Royals would want to focus on guys who were still true prospects rather than graduated and nearly-graduated guys. They might also prefer someone for whom baseball was more of a priority than Shaw has shown it to be for him. But these are still a pair of very talented hitters and would probably be a huge boost to the youth and talent of the Royals organization. How would you grade this trade if the Royals and Cubs agreed to it?

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As we put that five-game Thursday slate behind us, a full Friday slate is here. This evening, I am loving the underdog market, so let's dive in!

Here are today's MLB moneyline predictions as we break down a full slate of MLB picks for Friday, July 24, starring the Atlanta Braves.

MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Matchup	Pick
Rockies vs Brewers	+223
Royals vs Tigers	+264
Cubs vs Pirates	+108
Diamondbacks vs Nationals	+111
Yankees vs Phillies	-125
Braves vs Orioles	+106
Dodgers vs Mets	-133
Guardians vs Rays	-127
Padres vs Marlins	+125
Blue Jays vs Red Sox	-117
Astros vs White Sox	+125
Mariners vs Rangers	+108
Athletics vs Twins	+130
Reds vs Cardinals	-147
Angels vs Giants	+153

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-24.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Rockies vs Brewers: Rockies (+223)

Rockies win probability: 31%

Are you really going to lay -228 with a Brewers offense that has an 87 wRC+, a 25% strikeout rate, and just a 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games?

Meanwhile, the Rockies own a 41% hard-hit rate, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a .175 ISO over their last six.

Sure, Tomoyuki Sugano isn't the sexiest pitcher to put your money on, but at +223, it may be worth a sprinkle.

Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+264)

Royals win probability: 28%

Are you really paying -270 just because Tarik Skubal is on the mound? You shouldn't.

The Royals' offense is finally starting to heat up, posting a 115 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .762 OPS over its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have a 25.6% strikeout rate, a 35% hard-hit rate, and a 104 wRC+ over that same stretch.

Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Pirates: Cubs (+108)

Cubs win probability: 48%

Give me another underdog!

Sure, Jared Jones has been nails over his last few starts, but the Pirates' offense has gone cold lately. Meanwhile, the Cubs have posted a 130 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, and an .809 OPS over their last six games.

Matthew Boyd has been a bit shaky on the road, but over his last three starts, he's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just a 5.56% walk rate.

If the Cubs' offense can get to Jones while Boyd continues pitching at this level, I think they come out on top.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Nationals (+111)

Nationals win probability: 48%

You could not convince me to back the Diamondbacks when one of the most efficient offenses in baseball is an underdog.

While Arizona has started to heat up over the past week, Washington has been rolling for more than a month. On top of that, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4.91 xERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season, and he's carrying a 6.52 ERA over his last three starts.

Yankees vs Phillies: Phillies (-125)

Phillies win probability: 56%

Sure, Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Yankees, but how are they going to score runs? Over their last 21 games, New York has posted a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and .634 OPS.

Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Phillies, carrying a 0.69 ERA, 1.42 xERA, and 0.61 WHIP across his last three starts.

The Phillies offense has not been much better, but I believe Schlittler is due for some regression over his next few outings, which gives Philadelphia the edge in this matchup.

Braves vs Orioles: Braves (+106)

Braves win probability: 48%

The underdog leans keep rolling!

Trevor Rogers takes the mound for the Orioles this evening, and while he has looked excellent lately, his underlying metrics point toward regression.

Over his last three starts, Rogers owns a 1.04 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.26. His strikeout rate has been low, his walk rate has been a bit elevated, and the left-hander is allowing nearly 44% hard contact to opposing hitters.

Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Braves and has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Atlanta's offense has also started to heat up, making the Braves a very appealing underdog in this spot.

Dodgers vs Mets: Dodgers (-133)

Dodgers win probability: 57%

God, this is gross. Roki Sasaki versus Sean Manaea is not exactly a pitching matchup that inspires confidence, so expect some fireworks. Even so, I'm rolling with the Dodgers here.

Sasaki has been shaky all season, but Los Angeles still has the superior lineup and bullpen. In a matchup like this, I'll trust the better team overall.

Guardians vs Rays: Rays (-130)

Rays win probability: 56%

This should be a solid matchup based on how well both offenses have been swinging the bats lately, but I think the Rays come out on top this evening.

The biggest reason is Joey Cantillo. While his recent results may not look terrible, the underlying metrics suggest regression is on the horizon.

Across his last three starts, he has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate, a .463 BABIP, and owns a 1.80 WHIP. I think those numbers catch up to him tonight, giving Tampa Bay the edge.

Padres vs Marlins: Padres (+125)

Padres win probability: 44%

I find it difficult to back an offense that owns a 70 wRC+, .268 wOBA, and .602 OPS over its last six games, especially when the opposing team has posted a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .944 OPS over that same stretch. I want the Padres here.

German Marquez has been a liability for much of the season, but if he can simply be serviceable against this ice-cold Marlins offense, the Padres should be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-117)

Red Sox win probability: 54%

It's the Red Sox or nothing here.

The Blue Jays remain one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball, posting just a 67 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .115 ISO over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league during that same stretch.

Pay the juice.

Astros vs White Sox: Astros (+125)

Astros win probability: 44%

With Davis Martin's recent struggles on the mound and how cold the White Sox have been at the plate, even after coming off a series win, I want no part of them here.

The Astros offense has been humming, and if they can get to Martin early, I trust Spencer Arrighetti to keep Chicago's ice-cold lineup in check.

Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+108)

Rangers win probability: 48%

The Mariners can be everyone's AL sleeper all they want, but they still own an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .623 OPS over their last six games. Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged across their last 21 games.

On the other side, the Rangers offense is starting to heat up, posting a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .770 OPS over that same 21-game stretch.

I am willing to trust MacKenzie Gore here despite his ugly 7.09 ERA over his last five starts. His underlying metrics tell a much different story, as he owns a 3.11 xERA during that span. 

Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+130)

Athletics win probability: 44%

With Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews taking the mound, I want the Athletics. Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 5.86 xERA, and 2.19 WHIP, making him one of the easiest pitchers to fade on the slate.

Jacob Lopez has not been much better in terms of results for the Athletics, but his underlying numbers are far more encouraging. He owns a 2.78 xERA over his last three starts, giving me more confidence in Oakland to come away with the win.

The Athletics offense has been heating up, while the Twins have been cooling down. Give me the A's!

Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-147)

Cardinals win probability: 60%

Your mom's new favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, takes the bump for the Reds this evening while carrying a 9.64 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 2.36 WHIP over his last five starts. Not to mention, he is allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and has posted an extremely high .481 BABIP during that stretch.

Even with the Cardinals struggling over the past week, I think this is a clear bounce-back spot for them.

Angels vs Giants: Angels (+153)

Angels win probability: 40%

Holy gross. Both starters this evening are carrying ERAs above 8.00 over their last three starts, while both offenses have been completely frozen across their last 12 games.

Give me the underdog here. I am not paying $1.56 for a struggling arm paired with a struggling offense.

Do not pay the juice. Take the dog.

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The Philadelphia Phillies are -135 favorites to take the series opener vs. the New York Yankees tonight at Citizens Bank Park. 

But with two excellent starters taking on a pair of struggling offenses, I'm happy to take the value on the underdog with my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 24.

Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees moneyline (+115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are ice-cold on offense. They have hit just .222 against right-handed pitching in July and .202 over their last 10 games. 

Cam Schlittler has allowed only eight runs over eight starts against teams that ranked Bottom-10 in batting average in the 10 games prior to squaring off, and the Phillies sit 27th.

Jesus Luzardo is in exceptional form himself. However, he owns a 4.68 ERA against Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. The New York Yankees sit second on the year.

Back the Yankees to +100.

COVERS INTEL:Schlittler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value this season.

Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Scoring runs should feel like pulling teeth in this one.

The Phillies own a very underwhelming .296 wOBA and have struck out at the sixth-highest rate vs. righties in July. That should spell trouble against Schlittler, who ranks above the 90th percentile in both xwOBA and K%.

While the Yankees own excellent numbers against lefties this season, they have hit .204 with a 32.7K% during the month of July.

It’ll be tough to flip the switch against Luzardo, one of the most in-form pitchers in the majors.

Bet the Under to -125.

Yankees vs Phillies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s with winds blowing in. Very minimal boost to the bats.

Yankees vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Yankees +115 | Phillies -135
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Yankees vs Phillies trend

The Yankees have hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.30 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.

How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info

Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries

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Hello everyone and happy Friday!

The M’s are back in action this afternoon, traveling to Arlington to face the Rangers. What would you need to see from the club’s upcoming road trip to Texas and Los Angeles to consider it a success?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners parted ways with assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes.
• Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic provided the latest trade deadline intel regarding the Mariners, who are reportedly listening to offers on Luis Castillo and Emerson Hancock.
• Ryan Blake wonders what happened to Josh Naylor’s power stroke this year.

Around the league…

• Tigers ace left-hander Tarik Skubal has voiced a preference to stay with the Tigers as trade rumors swirl.
• Rintaro Sasaki — the Japanese slugger who made headlines a few years back when he chose to attend Stanford rather than enter the NPB draft — explained his reasoning for signing with the Marlins after being drafted in the 8th round, rather than heading back home to compete in NPB.
• Keith Law at The Athletic updated his list of the top 70 prospects in baseball, and he’s got some awfully good things to say about Kade Anderson. ($)
• Fangraphs updated its list of the top 100 prospects in advance of the trade deadline.
• How exactly does a three-team trade come to be? Stephen J. Nesbitt and Zack Meisel at The Athletic talked to some architects of recent three-team deals — including Jerry Dipoto — for a behind-the-scenes look.
• Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs checked back in on the Red Sox now that they’ve triumphantly re-entered the playoff picture.
• Former Angels shortstop José Iglesias is headed to Broadway to join the cast of Buena Vista Social Club. Evan Drellich at The Athletic has the story. ($)
• José Caballero continues to make enemies of umpires around the league.

• Passing along a plug here to help a local Harleem baseball icon’s family pay for his funeral expenses.