Going for a series win behind Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves are shuffling their lineup a bit, swapping Michael Harris up to the leadoff spot and Drake Baldwin down to cleanup. Jim Jarvis gets another start at shortstop, facing the righty Peralta.

Meanwhile, AJ Ewing gets the start at leadoff for the Mets and Francisco Lindor takes a day at DH.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Monday, July 6, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

With a 37-53 record that has them just a half-game ahead of the worst record in the National League, the Mets are set to be sellers at the deadline. And Will Sammon of the Athletic and Chelsea Janes of SNY have provided some insight into the organization’s thinking as the August 3 trade deadline approaches.

Sammon writes that teams will be interested in trading for one of the Mets’ catchers, but he sees a move of either Francisco Alvarez or Luis Torrens as unlikely. He also brings up the question of whether or not the team will trade Luke Weaver, who is under team control through the end of the 2027 season on a $12.5 million salary. And he mentions that the team is expected to trade Brooks Raley and A.J Minter, while noting that it seems very unlikely that Bo Bichette will be dealt given his underwhelming season, massive salary, and no-trade clause.

Janes mentions some of the same names in writing that players on expiring contracts will be available, adding Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Tyrone Taylor to the aforementioned pair of left-handed relievers. She says that the Mets will prioritize getting the best players in return—regardless of how close they are to the big leagues or what position they play. She floats the idea of other relievers like Huascar Brazobán and Devin Williams having appeal on the trade market, and she writes that the Mets aren’t in a rush to start making trades, as front offices are heavily focused on the upcoming amateur draft.

If you feel a breeze, don’t doubt yourself, it’s MLB Draft week once again. Since 2021, the MLB Draft has taken place over the All-Star Break, in an effort to combine the enhance the prestige of the event and turn the week into a baseball bonanza. It’s a move that has been lamented by scouts and front office folks, who note that the experience creates a cartoonishly packed weekend of work, however the fan experience may be more pleasantly what MLB is hoping for. This year, there are some small tweaks to make note of, and here at Lookout Landing we’ll have draft coverage rolling out all week in the leadup to Saturday and Sunday.

The majority of MLB’s All-Star Week this year will be broadcast by NBC, as well as simultaneously livestreamed by their Peacock service/app. However, the first broadcast event is the Historically Black College/University Swingman Classic Game on Friday, July 10th at 4 PM PT/7 PM ET on MLB Network and MLB.com.

When/Where is the MLB Draft, & how do we watch it?

The 2026 MLB Draft will occur Saturday, July 11th and Sunday, July 12th, in Philadelphia, PA as part of the All-Star Week festivities. Coverage will begin on NBC and Peacock at 10 AM PT/1 PM ET on Saturday, with rounds 1-3 being completed on day one. On Sunday, NBC/Peacock will pick things back up at 10 AM PT/1 PM ET again for rounds 4-20. Both days will also have live coverage on MLB Network and MLB.com

The Saturday outset is a tweak from years past, perhaps a slight genuflection to the requests of the clubs, moving the draft’s outset to a day slightly less packed with festivities. The MLB Futures Game will occur on Sunday, starting at 9 AM PT/12 PM ET, also to be broadcast on NBC. While it is a seven inning game, it may overlap with draft coverage, which seems likely to be pushed to MLB Network and MLB.com but is not entirely clear based on MLB’s website.

When do the Seattle Mariners pick?

The Seattle Mariners have the 24th pick in the draft, second-to-last in the “1st round” ahead of only the Milwaukee Brewers due to their reaching of the ALCS a season ago. The Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Yankees all had their first picks dropped 10 spots as a “fine” of sorts for exceeding the second payroll tax threshold (also known as the “Competitive Balance Tax”).

Their second round selection is the 65th overall pick, and their third pick (the final to be made on Saturday) will be the 101st selection. Seattle also had a pick given to them due to their eligibility for receiving “Competitive Balance Picks” in Round B, just after the second round, however they dealt that 68th overall selection to the St. Louis Cardinals as part of the Brendan Donovan trade this winter.

After picking 129th in the fourth round, Seattle picks every 30 selections afterwards for the remaining rounds as scheduled, save for rounds five and six wherein the Dodgers forfeited their picks as compensation for signing players who’d declined a qualifying offer.

What’s Seattle’s bonus pool situation?

Pretty small. Seattle has only $8,218,200 they are allowed to spend on signing bonuses for their draftees this year, 24th-most in MLB. The Pirates and Rays both are allowed to utilize over $19 million, by contrast. A season ago, Seattle selected LHP Kade Anderson 3rd overall and inked him to a $8.8 million bonus by himself. That was possible, of course, because after missing the playoffs in 2024, Seattle famously sprung up the lottery ladder to the third overall pick despite being projected for 15th, in the fairly new lottery system MLB has employed as part of their anti-tanking efforts. This, plus ineligibility to pick in the top-10 in consecutive years (or more than two consecutive years, depending on the market size of the club) have seemed to be savvy and successful disincentives towards active non-competitiveness instituted by MLB. You’ll see some less-favorable sentiments about draft-related proposals by MLB later on here, so it is important to note that they seem to have absolutely gotten this right.

Bonus pools are determined by draft slots in the first 10 rounds, and Seattle can save any funds unused initially to splash on players throughout the entire draft, so long as they sign those initial players. Seattle has nailed a number of major picks in recent years, and should be able to snag some impressive talents, but the realistic outcome is a less immediately eye-popping set of selections than some recent years.

Who is eligible to be drafted?

Anyone residing in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, or other U.S. territories who has never signed a previous MLB/MiLB contract and is either

• A high school graduate, OR
• Attending a junior/community college, OR
• Attending a four-year college/university which they have attended for at least three years/have reached their 21st birthday, whichever occurs first

The draft does not include players born and raised anywhere else in the world, wherein players are eligible to sign anytime after their 16th birthday to a contract with any big league club from each team’s capped bonus pool (players like Julio Rodríguez, Shohei Ohtani, or Yordan Alvarez), or as a true free agent once they are 25 years of age (almost exclusively established stars in countries with robust internal summer baseball leagues like Japan, Cuba, and South Korea, e.g. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jose Abreu, or Jung Hoo Lee).

There have also been recent changes to the draft’s rounds, with more dreamed of by MLB’s ownership groups. If you do not care for a bit of analysis on those suggestions, feel free to skim to the next headline.

Since MLB owners halved the number of rounds in the draft in recent competitive bargaining agreements, the draft has dropped from three days to two, and to 20 rounds from 40 since 2019 (and from 50 to 40 in 2011). The draft is once again a wish list item to warp for owners, who recently fantasized publicly with a dream of dropping to just 12 rounds, excluding high schoolers entirely (the players with the most leverage to negotiate their signing bonuses) and necessitating a higher age of eligibility for drafting to 20 years of age. While this could open up a batch of additional college players to eligibility, the intent is overwhelmingly a labor cost reduction. Players who debut earlier reach free agency earlier, and therefore can negotiate with more than just the team that claimed their right to work for the coming decade on draft day. From a pure on-field perspective, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodríguez would have seen their careers quite differently, while Colt Emerson and Ryan Sloan would still be on campus. Part of baseball’s distinct joy is in its many avenues to plausibility, and it would be nice not to see those curtailed.

What’s coming next on LL?

Plenty! Check out some of our draft profiles if you’ve not already, and keep an eye out each day for a roundup of coverage around the scouting world, our own mock draft of the first 50 or so picks, some deep dives from Max, Kate, and myself, live draft coverage this weekend, and more!

There’s no denying that we’ll know a lot more about the St. Louis Cardinals by the time this week is complete. 5 games over the next 4 days will be played at Busch Stadium against the NL Central division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals have momentum, but on paper the next 4 days look difficult for St. Louis.

Let’s start with the pitching matchups which feature some questions for how St. Louis will lineup the rotation:

Monday, July 6 – Dustin May – 5-6, 4.80 ERA, 78 SO vs Shane Drohan – 3-2, 3.12 ERA, 59 SO

Tuesday, July 7 (day game) – Cardinals starter unannounced vs Jacob Misiorowski – 9-4, 1.47 ERA, 156 SO

Tuesday, July 7 (night game) Starters unannounced for both teams

Wednesday, July 8 – Cardinals starter unannounced vs Kyle Harrison – 8-1, 2.82 ERA, 99 SO

Thursday, July 9 – Starters unannounced for both teams

Monday night’s starter Shane Drohan is 1-1 in his last 7 games. His 3 most recent starts have been no decisions. In his last start, Shane threw 5 2/3 innings on July 1 against the Reds giving up 2 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk. What can I saw about Tuesday’s starter Jacob Misiorowski that you don’t already know? He’s 5-2 in his last 7 games including that infamous 105.5 mph record-breaking fastball. His most recent 3 games are interesting, though, as he’s lost 2 of them, but those were instances of lack of run support. Jacob’s last start on July 2 against the Reds was a loss, but he struck out 10 and only gave up 1 earned run. Wednesday’s starter, Kyle Harrison, is having a great season as he’s 8-1 with just a 2.82 ERA. The Milwaukee Brewers currently lead the league in team ERA.

The Brewers are not without big injury issues as Brandon Woodruff exited the team’s loss on the 4th of July in the 4th inning and was reportedly headed to the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. The Brewers injured list is full of pitchers.

Entering Monday night’s game, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the St. Louis Cardinals by 7 games. They have won 6 of their last 10 while the Cardinals are 5-5 over the same period. The Brewers team leaders are as follows:

Batting Average – William Contreras – .295

Home Runs – Jake Bauers – 15

RBI’s – Jake Bauers – 52

OPB – Jake Bauers – .365

Hits – William Contreras – 95

How successful or not the St. Louis Cardinals are during the upcoming homestand vs the Brewers and Braves prior to the All-Star break will likely play a large role in whether they are buyers, sellers or a mixture of both at the trade deadline. Successful management of the pitching staff will be crucial over this 5-game/4-day series. A strong start Monday night by Dustin May will be key.

The good news is that we face a sub .500 team.

Ah, like I said in my previous preview, which was #27, for every Series there is good news and there is bad news.

The good news is that Brazil has lost. Ouch, just like last time, let me try this again: the good news is that no longer is the Padres a team with a record over .500. You all know what that means: the Diamondbacks have a terrible record against teams that are above .500, so with the Padres no longer being there, we have a terrific opportunity to go over Mount .500 again.

The bad news is that our best pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez, will not take the mound in this series, so it will all be a gamble.

This series is 4 games. That is a lot of games. Sweeping is probably out of the question, but taking 3 should be possible, right?

Let’s take a look.

We have seen the San Diego Padres in just one series so far this season, and that was a 2-game series on April 25 and April 26. The Padres were tied as league leaders when they visited Chase Field at that moment, with a solid 17-8 record. The Diamondbacks were also in la la land, standing at 14-11, though the series loss against Chicago White Sox might have been a bit sour.

The first game was a 6-4 loss, Arizona could not hold a 4-0 lead after 2 innings: Pfaadt loaded the bases and Taylor Clarke emptied them, in a way a pitcher should not. The second game was pretty much the other way around, with the Padres taking a 6-0 lead after the top 5, a weak performance from Ryne Nelson, only to go down 12-7, with the Snakes scoring 10 runs in the 7th and 8th inning, amongst them a Tim Tawa grand-slam.

That was then, and this is now.

What is now?

Now is a Diamondbacks’ record that has not changed that much, going from 15-13 to 44-45. Now is also the total collapse of the San Diego Padres. After that first win against the Diamondbacks the Padres were 10 games above .500 and took the sole lead of the NL West. After that they pretty much gave good competition against the Dodgers, sitting closely behind them for almost the entire month of May, going 11 games over .500 at a certain moment, until the Phillies came to San Diego on May 25 and swept the Padres, the beginning of a slow downfall.

Ever since that series, the Padres have gone 13-24.

Over that span, the Padres still have a better offence than the Diamondbacks. Ha, you would not have suspected that, right? Truth is that, despite not being an All Star, Fernando Tatis Jr. still has been able to provide a 144 WRC+ in that time period, despite the lack of power and pop. Except for Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ batting lineup has still been able to provide a run here and there, though sporadically, but all above or close to 100 WRC+.

Their starting and relief pitching has been bad, except for their star closer (and their top relievers are solid too), but more or less similar to the Diamondbacks’ pitching. As a matter of fact, xERA is slightly better than Arizona’s, though the ERA is not. Most likely, the Padres are not as good as they were the first two months of the season and are probably not as bad as they have been ever since. Their current record might be a good reflection of who they are this season, so this series will probably balance out or the luckier team might win.

The Padres receive the Diamondbacks with an injured list full of pitchers, a la Diamondbacks: Joe Musgrove (setback), Yu Darvish (out for the year), Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito, Randy Vasquez, David Morgan and Jason Adam (the latter being of the better relievers) all have no timetable for return.

The past two years, the Padres have had the Diamondbacks’ number. Arizona still maintains an all-time lead over San Diego, though it is shrinking: 248-234.

Matchups.

Game #1 Mon 07/06 6:40 PM MST, Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Walker Buehler (SDP).

• Brandon Pfaadt. 14 G, 4 GS, 43.1 IP, 1 W-1 L, 5.40 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 33/18 K/BB. $3,400,000.
• Walker Buehler. 17 GS, 82.0 IP, 5 W-4 L, 4.61 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 76/30 K/BB. $1,500,000.

Brandon Pfaadt might still piss his bed when he thinks about the last time when he faced the Padres. It was in long relief, loading the bases and seeing Taylor Clarke relieve and gift him with 4 runs. But that Pfaadt no longer exists. We now have a renewed and rejuvenated Brandon Pfaadt, who knows how to strike the batters out, but, above all, keeps the hard hits limited. Unlike his fellow veterans Gallen and Kelly, Pfaadt now knows how to keep the balls in the park, something he had no idea about until going back to Reno. There, in the desert, he learned in 10 innings all that there is to know about baseball and how to become an ace in the major leagues. Pfaadt will lead the Diamondbacks to a victory and himself to everlasting success!

One who was on that road of success as well, was Walker Buehler. He was a menace in Los Angeles, an All Star and Cy Young contender, until he had to undergo Tommy John and ever since, he has never been the same again. In 2025 he was bad in Boston, but better in relief in Philadelphia. San Diego offered him a one-year contract. If Buehler continues to pitch like he does, he is a good candidate to get a Mike Soroka-like contract next season and the next ones, getting one year deals that flirt with 8 digit figures.

Game #2 Tue 07/07 6:40 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs TBD.

• Zac Gallen. 18 GS, 92.0 IP, 3 W-8 L, 6.36 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, 56/28 K/BB. $16,199,618.
• TBD.

The Padres don’t have a starter for this game yet, because this is the spot of Randy Vasquez, who hit the injured list recently and is without a timetable of return. Good chance the Padres call up Jhony Brito, who pitched briefly in the majors in 2023 and 2024 but was injured in the 2025 season. He recently returned and has pitched to an excellent 0.96 ERA in the PCL in 4 starts in June (18.2 innings). If he ends up starting this game, he will probably be on a short lease.

In my last series preview I said that it was hardly possible to get any worse than Gallen has pitched so far, but I was wrong, because his ERA keeps on rising. Last time Gallen held an opponent scoreless or limited to less than 2 runs was on April 25, against these Padres, when he had a brief appearance of 3 innings because of an injury. Maybe the Padres will inspire him again to a scoreless performance.

Game #3 Wed 07/08 7:10 PM MST, Jose Cabrera (ARI) vs Michael King (SDP).

• Jose Cabrera. 3 GS, 79.2 IP, 3 W-6 L, 6.10 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 52/25 K/BB. $412,929.
• Michael King. 15 GS, 89.0 IP, 6 W-2 L, 2.73 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 55/17 K/BB. $9,000,000.

After an encouraging debut, Jose Cabrera is experiencing the major leagues, with a tough performance against the Rays and an even tougher one against the Brewers. Maybe the Padres’ lineup will offer Cabrera a breeze, but more likely he will continue to learn the hard way in the major leagues. If he is hit hard, good chance it will be his final performance in the major leagues because he won’t be necessary for the final series before the All Star break, and after that, who knows.

Michael King has been the sole starting pitching star on this Padres’ squad, in what will most likely be his final year in San Diego, before skipping the player options and testing the free agency market, looking to sign a new contract before a lock-out becomes inevitable. King has faced the Diamondbacks four times in his career, all as a Padre, and has never lost.

Game #4 Thu 07/09 6:40 PM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Griffin Canning (SDP).

• Merrill Kelly. 15 GS, 86.2 IP, 6 W-8 L, 5.71 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 53/35 K/BB. $18,000,000.
• Griffin Canning. 12 G, 9 GS, 51.0 IP, 1 W-6 L, 6.71 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 1.61 WHIP, 50/30 K/BB. $1,000,000.

Good chance that the final game of this series will become an absolute spectacle of a slugfest, with Merrill Kelly, the homer-prone pitcher, facing Griffin Canning, who is having a nightmare of a season. Merrill was once again hittable, but the Brewers couldn’t hurt Kelly too much, and despite one homerun, only gave up 2 runs. That is what we call a quality outing.

Canning did his starting and has also been used after an opener this season. In either case, it has not really worked for him. Canning is in the rotation because all others are injured, otherwise, he would have probably seen himself working in either long relief / mop-up or bumped off the roster. Canning was one of those prospects the Angels tried to rocket into the major leagues, but after an encouraging start, he never could cement himself as a major league starter, though he had an okay bounceback last year for the New York Mets. He faced the Diamondbacks last year with the Mets, getting a win, allowing only 1 run in 5 innings. It looks like the league has adjusted to this groundball pitcher once more, because the changeup he so successfully deployed last season, is now getting hit hard by the batters.

No, the trade deadline hasn’t arrived, nor are the Detroit Tigers getting an early start as a seller. Still, given the way this season has gone, it’s a bit amusing to think of the Tigers as having surplus relief help that is in demand by other clubs around the league. The Tigers dealt two Triple-A relievers, RHP Woo-Suk Go and RHP Matt Seelinger to the Twins and the Mets over the past two days, receiving cash considerations in return.

The key factor involved in the trades were the escalator clauses in both right-hander’s minor league deals with the Tigers. Both had the right to opt-out if not added to the 40-man roster shortly, and that wasn’t going to happen. So in a sense these are just procedural moves, the type that come up for the Tigers every year as president of baseball operations stockpiles minor league relievers via claims and minor league signings to try and fill out a pretty weak farm system in terms of upper level pitching prospects.

The 27-year-old Go, who has closing experience in his native South Korea pitching in the KBO, compiled a 2.60 ERA with a 2.43 FIP for the Toledo Mud Hens this season across 27.2 innings of work. His walk rates were a touch on the high side, but a 29.1 percent strikeout rate and no home runs allowed at the Triple-A level made him an interesting candidate who seemed like he might get a shot at some point. He developed a pretty good splitter over the past year, but still works with a pretty modest 92-94 mph fastball.

Seelinger’s numbers were more modest, and this was the 31-year-old right-hander’s third season in the Tigers’ farm system. His strikeout rates have been good, and he has both good extension and a solid mix of breaking and offspeed stuff, fulfilling much of what the Tigers like to look for, but his fastball shape has always been a problem, and the walks and power against him never really got under control for too long.

So ultimately, this is more about the state of the Twins and Mets at this point than anything to do with the Tigers. Both pitchers were bound to move on shortly anyway, with no real path to the major leagues for Seelinger, and only a slim one for Go. Flipping them for cash before that happened is just a standard decision.

As for the Tigers’ bullpen, finding the right arms to close out high leverage situations remains a challenge, but overall they were much better over the past five weeks. Since June 1, the Tigers bullpen ranks seventh best by ERA, and 11th by FIP, putting them comfortable into above average territory. Will Vest’s injury issues and struggles have presented a pretty big problem for them, but with Vest out again with an arm injury, they’ve gotten more aggressive with possible solutions.

The addition, at least temporarily, of Keider Montero should remain a big boost to that group, helping to close out games and pushing some lesser arms back into setup and middle relief territory, where they belong. Kenley Jansen will keep getting selected save opportunities for a while, but ideally Drew Anderson would clean up his tendency to make one big mistake and start contributing more in tight spots. We’ll see if that happens to play out. It’s also not impossible that the Tigers might decide to use Jackson Jobe out of the pen once his rehab is complete in August, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out. Otherwise, this is still a group that is deep enough in solid arms, but still lacks a real ace in the pen to shut the door on opponents. The probability that the Tigers will trade some starting pitching over the next month and need Montero right back into the rotation says the pen is going to remain their key problem.

The Tigers bullpen has gotten in much better shape, but it’s still far from a top unit. If Go and Seelinger couldn’t crack this group, the Tigers aren’t going to miss them.

It’s been a wild run of Cubs baseball over the last few days. The Cubs put an exclamation point on a 16-10 June with a 23-run barrage against the Padres before promptly giving up 17 runs against the St. Louis Cardinals, because baseball. The bats have been hot generally, but one player in particular is in the midst of a historic hot streak: Dansby Swanson. I mean, just check out the three home runs he clubbed on July 1 against the Padres [VIDEO].

It’s a remarkable turnaround, and you really don’t have to look further than Dansby’s splits before the hot streak and during it to see how big of an impact he’s had during the last three weeks for the Cubs. Baseball is such a random game of hot and cold streaks that I don’t generally recommend pulling cherry picked streaks in this way, however, what Dansby is doing right now is so noteworthy I think it’s helpful. Below you can see Dansby’s numbers on the season through June 16 compared to the absolute heater he’s been on since June 17:

I mean, the home run and RBI totals alone are mind-blowing stats. Dansby has had more long balls and runs batted in during this 65 plate appearance stretch than he’s had during the first two and a half months of the season. It’s been an unbelievable span of production. In fact, in the 150-year history of the Chicago Cubs only two other players have put up more RBI in a 16-game span than Dansby Swanson: Sammy Sosa and Hack Wilson.

Sammy Sosa had one 16-game span where he had 32 RBI and 15 home runs. I’m sure you remember it well, it was the summer of 1998 starting May 25 and ending June 15, part of his historic June that ultimately saw him club a record 20 home runs. Hack Wilson had an unbelievable run through late July and the end of August in 1930 en route to setting the all time single season RBI record of 191, that season included multiple 16-game spans that saw him post 30+ RBI. Next up on the list is Dansby Swanson.

Kiki Cuyler also had a span of exactly 29 RBI in a 16 game span, tying Swanson’s mark. Intriguingly, Cuyler’s mark maps almost perfectly calendar-wise on Dansby’s current streak. Cuyler built his run from June 19, 1930 to July 4, 1930.

One fun fact about all of the numbers above, because spans start and stop on different days, Dansby should have a handful of shots between now and the All Star Break to pad those numbers and potentially pass Sosa and/or Wilson. He’ll lose two RBI next game as the Cubs contest with the Orioles replaces a June 17 game against the Rockies where he went 1 for 4 against the Rockies with a home run and two RBI, he’ll lose another RBI the day after that as he replaces the June 19 game against Toronto that saw him go 1 for 6 with an RBI. Given the hot streak he’s been on, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see him put together a performance worth more than an RBI or three over the next two games.

Here’s hoping Dansby stays hot so the Cubs can keep their winning ways going as they head into the All Star break. He won’t really start to lose the core of his current streak until the doubleheader from June 24 against the Mets falls out of the span. That day he notched 11 RBI across two games, going a combined 5 for 9 over two games with two home runs and a triple. Let’s check out the seven-RBI affair that started it all one more time [VIDEO].