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Thursday was a lighter day on the Major League schedule, though the Yankees still had time to squeeze in a tough loss. The Bombers mustered just three hits at the plate and spoiled a solid Carlos Rodón start in their 2-0 loss at the hands of the Blue Jays. The loss locked in a split of their four-game series, but the task becomes even taller this weekend, as they welcome the Rays into Yankee Stadium for a huge series.

Elsewhere, it was a short day on the American League schedule, with just some movement in the Central taking place in the afternoon. Here’s a look at how things shook out. Spoiler alert: We will at least temporarily be bidding adieu to the Tigers from this daily feature after today unless they’re playing someone relevant because boy are they ugly right now.

Cleveland Guardians (30-22) 3, Detroit Tigers (20-31) 1

In some Thursday afternoon action in the American League Central, the Guardians sat in the driver’s seat wire to wire against the Tigers. It was a rather quiet affair on the offensive side, one that grew Cleveland’s lead in the division, as well as Detroit’s depth in the basement.

This one pitted Casey Mize against Joey Cantillo, both of whom have enjoyed terrific starts to the 2026 season on the mound. In line with what we’ve seen thus far, both hurlers continued that trend on Thursday. For the Guardians, Cantillo made his 11th start of the season a good one. The 26-year-old lefty tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and striking out six.

For Detroit, Mize had the good stuff going for the most part as well. The former first overall draft pick is enjoying easily the best season of his career to this point in year six, and Thursday’s performance did little to tarnish that thought. The right-hander worked two spotless frames to begin the outing, before the Guardians kicked off scoring in the third inning. With two quick outs already on the board, Brayan Rocchio was the rally starter, pitching in with a double, quickly being scored by another two-bagger from Daniel Schneemann. Before the inning was over, José Ramírez upped the Cleveland lead to 2-0 with a single into left field.

Aside from the two-out rally the Guards staged against him, Mize’s afternoon was another good one, as he ended up working 6.2 quality innings against his division’s first place club, with the two runs in the third inning being the only real mark on his record for the day.

Cantillo exited the game for Cleveland in the sixth, after recording a pair of outs, though the Tigers’ bats wouldn’t have much more luck against their bullpen. In the top half of the eighth, the Guardians tacked on some insurance against Burch Smith out of the Detroit ‘pen, when former Platinum Glover Patrick Bailey swatted his second homer of the season, a solo shot.

The Tigers finally woke up a bit in the eighth inning. Squaring off against Tim Herrin, Dillon Dingler led off the inning with a solo shot of his own, his ninth long ball of the 2026 season.

Despite a little bit of life out of the Tigers late in the game, it was too little, too late. Hunter Gaddis came in for the ninth out of the Guardians’ bullpen, the sixth pitcher they used in the game, and quickly locked things down for the save. The win marked the 30th for the Guardians in 2026, while the Tigers fall to 11 games below .500, as they find themselves in last place in the AL Central.

After a short schedule on Thursday, the Blue Jays will welcome the Pirates while the Rays head to Yankee Stadium for some important weekend series.

Former Major Leaguer Ryan Sweeney, who serves as studio analyst on Chicago’s Marquee Sports Network, sits down to preview the Astros upcoming series with the Cubs at historic Wrigley Field.    

Q:  When it’s all said and done, could the Cubs have the best rotation in all of baseball this season?

A:  Cubs have had a lot of pitching injuries so to say they have the best rotation in baseball would be a stretch. With Boyd and Steele and Cade Horton out they have been piecing it together, but up until last night Shota had been pitching like a true ace. Also to think where they would be without Ben Brown and Colin Rea, they have been great.

Q:  Does something just seem “right” in the universe when the Cubs are playing a string of day games at Wrigley?

A:  Yes.  Day games at Wrigley are the best especially when you are the home team.   The Cubs had won 15 in a row at Wrigley up until Monday Night when that was halted.   I think everyone coming into town loves day games as well because Wrigley is a special place.

Q:  Astros fans miss Alex Bregman and justifiably so.  How has he made the transition to the Northside?     

A:  Alex is a great dude and I have had some interactions with him especially with the racehorses haha I own some as well . He’s just a winner and I think people respect that . That being said, with the big contract people expect him to produce.

He is a historically slow starter but has been swinging the bat better as of late, and I expect his numbers to be great by the end of the year . But I also think he loves Chicago and the team all gets along and has a good vibe together .

One of the benefits of waiting until late May to look at statistics is that individual games have less of a difference on overall numbers. In April, it looked like the Astros hitting coaches were the toast of the town. The team was leading the American League in runs scoring. They were taking more pitches. They were taking more walks. It felt like there was a new message being delivered to hitters and they were listening. Of course, not we have gone most of the way through May (May 19th as of these numbers) and those gains may have slowed.

We have been looking at bases per out now for a couple of different articles. We looked at the catchers and we will look at the infield and outfield eventually, but this time we are looking at the offense as a whole. For comparisons sake, we will take a look at the 2025 numbers since those numbers were probably the numbers that got the past two hitting coaches sent out of town.

Now that the offense has seemingly come back to earth it bears asking whether there were any meaningful and lasting changes in the Astros offense. With one very notable exception, the players are basically the same. That exception is Yordan Alvarez as he spent most of 2025 on the shelf and wasn’t himself for most of the time when he was healthy. Is that enough to explain the difference?

Keep in mind that we will add BPO+ for reference sake. In case you missed our primer article, the major league BPO in 2025 was .670. The BPO so far this season is .663, Last year Daikan Park was perfectly neutral while this year it is playing one percent above average. Given that information let’s see if we have seen in real gains from 2025 to 2026.

That’s not an insignificant improvement. Of course, those gains might be short-lived as the Astros will live without Jose Altuve for a month and Carlos Correa for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t even mention any parts and pieces that will be bartered off before the August 3rd trade deadline. However, if we assume that forces will remain constant (never a good assumption) then we can note where the gains have occurred.

If we note where the gains have occurred then we can possibly isolate those gains down to either hitting talent or hitting approach. Keep in mind that the BPO formula is made up of four components. Total bases is obviously the biggest driver and one probably more dependent on hitting talent. The smaller components are walks, hit by pitches, and stolen bases. Walks are the main component tied to hitting approach.

Before we dive into the numbers, we have to acknowledge the impact of usage. This is why we will break down the infield and outfield in subsequent labs. Those numbers tell us who should play and how often they should play. Naturally, some of that is dependent on availability, but some of that is in the hands of the manager. A statistic like BPO can tell us more about damage than traditional numbers like batting average or more crude sabermetrics like OPS.

The Astros are 49 games into the season, so we will not look at the totals for these four components. Instead we will look at the per game averages to see where if any growth we see in the numbers. 30 BPO points is pretty significant, but as you will see the per game totals might be more subtle. It shows you how small tweaks can have a pretty significant impact on the numbers.

Seeing the numbers expressed this way also helps us understand the relative impact of each metric. The best team in baseball history in steals may have averaged 1.50 steals per game. So, an extra base per game is all you would get out of that exchange. However, as you can see, the 2026 is walking nearly 0.6 times more per game than the 2025 outfit. The impact of hit by pitches is also negligible.

So, the bulk of the difference will come from total bases and walks. The combined additions there equal almost one more base per game. That is the difference between a below average offense and an above average offense. Two total bases would probably take you from below average to elite. So, we aren’t really talking about huge differences this year.

The question then comes down to how we explain the improvement. It is an overall hitting approach improvement or are we talking isolated improvements in personnel. So far, Alvarez has not missed a game and has hit like expected, It turns out that 2025 might be the anomaly there. Otherwise, it looks like Christian Walker is the only significant hitter to show considerable improvement from 2025 to 2026. Can that be attributed to the hitting coaches? I suppose anything is possible.

it should be noted that Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena have done very little and they were solid and very good respectively last season. There is still a ton of time for them to look more like they looked last year and that could further boost the numbers we are seeing. A more productive Yainer Diaz could also give a little boost to the lineup. Nothing is ever fixed in the middle of a season. So, given these numbers do you lean more on the hitting coaches being the reason for improvement or is it because of individual performances?

Mason Miller joined the San Diego Padres at the 2025 trade deadline, and his acquisition came at a steep price. The top prospect in the San Diego organization, Leodalis De Vries, had to be in the return for Miller and left-hander JP Sears. Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller paid the price for one of the top closers in MLB with four-plus years of control, but the move was questioned by many. To his credit, Preller banked on MLB experience, which Miller had, and took a risk that the loss of De Vries, as vaunted a prospect as he is, may not hurt too bad in the future. He also saw an opportunity for Miller to become an even better closer under the tutelage of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. So far, Miller has made the trade a success. Prior to a throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the second game against the Los Angeles Dodgers this week, Miller coming into the game was a winning recipe for the Padres. He did not enter in a save situation, but manager Craig Stammen believed that Miller could get through the top of the ninth with the game tied, which would give San Diego a chance to win it in the home half of the inning. That opportunity was lost and so was the game, but it was not because Miller could not throw strikes, he rushed a throw to first base and Ty France could not bring it in, which put the runner at third with one out. He later scored on a sacrifice fly and that was all the Dodgers needed. Miller is looking for an opportunity to erase that memory and he may get the chance over the next three days against the Athletics. It is not a sure thing we see Miller in one of these games, but for now he is the biggest piece of the trade between the two teams that has any chance at making an impact at the MLB level. That may change when De Vries finally makes his debut, but that will not be this week or any time soon.

Padres News:

• The Padres offense has struggled to find its stride this season, and that is in large part due to the stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill getting off to slow starts. That has not affected the defensive play of Tatis, who has returned to the infield dirt and has assumed the role of starting second baseman.

• It was a tough day for San Diego minor league affiliates with El Paso and Fort Wayne taking losses.

• Preller is not waiting for the trade deadline to start looking to improve his team. It may come as somewhat of a surprise that the Padres general manager is looking at improving the team’s biggest and most consistent strength – the bullpen.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees were held to just three hits by five Toronto Blue Jays pitchers in a 2-0 loss.

• Yankees send Spencer Jones back to minors.

• The Cleveland Guardians got a 3-1 win to complete a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers.

• Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who had surgery two weeks ago, is throwing bullpens and his velocity is already near game speed.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Miami Marlins, 9-3 but their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. left the game early with a thumb injury.

• Corbin Carroll gets walk-off hit to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies, 2-1.

• The Athletics got a comeback win over the Los Angeles Angels and Jose Soriano.

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We're starting early with our favorite MLB picks for Friday, taking a side in the lone afternoon game on the MLB schedule.

Read on to see why our baseball experts like the Cubs to hold down the fort at Wrigley, while we also have plays in Dodgers/Brewers and Rockies/Diamondbacks — plus more picks coming this morning!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: LAD/MIL o8.5	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-138
Joe Osborne: ARI -1.5	+113

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers/Brewers Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

On a bad-weather slate loaded with rain concerns and heavy winds blowing in, let's target an Over 8.5 that appears as the best spot on the board. THE BAT is projecting 10.10 runs, with a fair price of -137. The pitching matchup looks appealing, if you’re only staring at the ERAs, but shaky BlastContact numbers suggest regression appears to be coming for both starters — Logan Henderson is stranding 98% of his runners over his last two starts, while Justin Wrobleski is carrying a .223 BABIP that feels due for some correction.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BREW/SNLA

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket

Jameson Taillon is holding opposing hitters to a well-below-average .300 wOBA, leading a tidy 3.28 ERA across 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish, especially with Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump, who sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been outstanding in Arizona, with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and allowing one earned run or fewer in four of those outings. That’s a tough matchup for a Colorado lineup sitting at 27th in OPS vs. RHP over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano faces a D-backs offense that leads MLB in runs scored over the last week. Arizona also holds a major bullpen advantage, ranking sixth in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while Colorado is 23rd.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ARID/COLR

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Marlins play a three-game series in Miami starting on Friday at 7:10 p.m. on PIX11.

5 things to watch

The starting rotation is in flux

With Clay Holmes out long-term, New York is patching things together in the rotation.

Against the Nationals in Washington, D.C., the four games were started by Christian Scott, Nolan McLean, Zach Thornton (in his MLB debut), and David Peterson (without an opener in front of him, as had become routine lately).

In Miami, Tobias Myers will start on Friday night, but he is not stretched out. That means he'll likely not go much beyond 35 or 40 pitches, and that the Mets will need plenty of length behind him. That length could come in the form of Jonah Tong, who has been held out in Triple-A just in case. Or, New York could possibly turn to Sean Manaea, who has been struggling.

The plan beyond Friday is unknown, though it will almost certainly include Freddy Peralta and one of Scott or McLean. 

Bo Bichette is heating up

Bichette went off during the series against the Nats, smacking three homers and driving in nine runs.

Over his last five games, Bichette is hitting .348/.375/.783.

Despite his prolonged slump to start the season, a rebound from Bichette wasn't hard to see coming. During his struggles, Bichette's BABIP was well below his career level despite similar metrics to his career norms.

In addition to Bichette, Carson Benge has been on fire -- and his tear dates back roughly a month.

Since April 23, Benge is slashing .347/.385/.469 (.854 OPS). He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, with six multi-hit games during that span.

Juan Soto is also scorching, with a 1.357 OPS and five homers over his last eight games.

How will Nolan McLean bounce back?

McLean had a rough night against the Nats on Tuesday, allowing nine runs (six earned) on eight hits in 5.2 innings.

There were some caveats, though.

Four of the six earned runs against McLean came on an inside-the-park home run by James Wood that caromed off the glove of left fielder Nick Morabito. It was a tough play, but one that could've been made.

Beyond that, there was some concern after the game that McLean was tipping his pitches. 

If McLean doesn't pitch on Sunday in Miami, he'll likely get the ball at Citi Field on Monday against the Reds. 

The Marlins have been sinking

Miami had a nice start to the year, racing out to a 5-1 record. But it's been a slog since then.

The Marlins are 6-12 since May 3, and have lost seven of their last 10 games -- including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this week.

Their offense has been feast or famine, with 16 runs over their last seven losses and 31 runs in their last three wins.

Miami's starting pitching remains solid, though, and will feature Eury Perez and Max Meyer this weekend, with Sunday's starter TBD. 

Otto Lopez is having a huge season

If there's one standout for the Marlins on offense, it's Lopez. 

Lopez had a .686 OPS in parts of four seasons before 2026, but a switch has flipped for him.

The infielder is leading the majors with a .342 batting average and 68 hits, getting on base at a .373 clip, and slugging .487. 

Lopez has been an extra-base hit machine, with 13 doubles, four homers, and two triples, and has also swiped eight bags.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto has been absolutely locked in since breaking out of a mini-slump about a week ago. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

Peralta will be looking to bounce back after an uneven start last weekend against the Yankees.

Which Marlins player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Jakob Marsee

Things haven't come easily for Marsee in his second season, but he's one of the most talented bats in Miami's lineup.

Columbus Clippers 2, Louisville Bats 4

Clippers fall to 25-23

Several top prospects had strong games, but it wasn’t enough. Cooper Ingle went 1-for-3 with two walks to reach base safely three times.

Kahlil Watson went 2-for-5 with a home run.

George Valera also reached base safely three times, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk while Angel Genao went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peteson allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits with four strikeouts and two walks in 5.1 innings.

The bullpen was terrific. Daniel Espino struck out two in 0.2 scoreless innings. Will Dion pitched 2.0 scoreless frames and Jake Miller struck out two in a scoreless frame.

Akron RubberDucks 1, Harrisburg Senators 0

RubberDucks improve to 24-17

Thursday was a pitching duel between Khal Stephen and former Guardians prospect Alex Clemmey. Clemmey struck out 11 batters, but made one mistake, an RBI double to Alfonsin Rosario, who went 1-for-2 with two walks and three stolen bases. No one else reached base safely twice.

Stephen was excellent, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings with five hits allowed while striking out four and walking one.

Adam Tulloch added a scoreless inning while Carter Rustad pitched 2.0 scoreless frames out of relief and Magnus Ellerts finished off the shutout with a scoreless inning to earn his second save.

Lake County Captains 11, Lansing Lugnuts 1

Captains improve to 21-20

Lake County once again got excellent hitting and pitching in another blowout of Lansing. Something appears to be in the water east of the Captains lately.

Leading the way was Dean Curley, who went 2-for-3 with a grand slam and a walk.

Nolan Schubart also homered, going 1-for-3 with a walk.

Aaron Walton went 2-for-4 with a double while Jace LaViolette went 1-for-2 with a triple and a walk. Maick Collado went 2-for-4 with a home run.

Starting pitcher Franklin Gomez allowed one run on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks in 6.0 innings.

Cam Schuelke and Donovan Zsak combined for 3.0 scoreless innings of relief to close out the victory.

Hill City’s came was postponed due to rain.

ACL Guardians 3, ACL White Sox 2

ACL Guardians improve to 9-6

No one had an extra base hit, but Steven Cruz went 2-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base while scoring two of the three runs for the ACL Guardians on Thursday.

Starting pitcher Edelvis Perez allowed one run in 4.0 innings on three hits. He danced around five walks while striking out four.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Evan Grant’s off day column details the life of the meticulous Brandon Nimmo.

Grant also writes that the Rangers have a golden opportunity this weekend against the crappy Angels.

MLB Pipeline lists a pleasantly surprising prospect from every team, and I have indeed been pleasantly surprised with the Rangers pick.

And finally former Ranger Marcus Semien is the coverboy of Jim Bowden’s piece on struggling MLB veterans. Woof.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series against the lowly Angels at the weirdly specific time of 8:38 tonight. Jacob deGrom pitches for Texas.

Happy Friday!

You know your team’s season is going badly when … Oh, here’s a surefire one: in-organization fights start to erupt about why the team is playing badly.

One erupted this week, as beloved MASN broadcaster and former pitcher Ben McDonald unleashed an on-air rant about the O’s overreliance on analytics. Following the O’s 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, McDonald vented as follows:

We can talk about analytics and what could happen and what should happen if you hit the ball hard. But … I don’t care if you hit it hard and you hit it to somebody. You’re out. I don’t care how hard you throw ball four. I don’t care what your spin rate was on your breaking ball if you bounce it three feet in front of home plate. I don’t care. What I care about is, do you make plays? Do you make pitches? Do you get hits when it matters? And that’s what the Orioles are struggling to do right now. … So, all this nonsense is eyewash to me about this analytical stuff. You either do or you don’t. And right now, the Orioles don’t.

It would appear Big Ben has a point. The Orioles (21-29) entered today tied for the second-highest average exit velocity in MLB (90 mph), but their offense ranked just 17th, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Adding insult to injury, the first-place Rays (33-15), who swept Baltimore this week in three games, own the sport’s lowest average exit velo, sitting at 87.6 mph.

This is not a totally new story. Last season, the Orioles were a thoroughgoing offensive disappointment, expected to contend but ultimately finishing tied for 24th in MLB in batting average (.235), 21st in OPS (.699), and 24th in runs scored (677). Injuries played a real role: Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Heston Kjerstad and Tyler O’Neill each missed fifty games or more, the latter earning himself the nickname “General Soreness.”

The organization didn’t just sit and take these body blows: instead, they took action (a pun!)—namely by firing the entire hitting staff. Coaches Sherman Johnson and Tommy Joseph were shown the door, and with new manager Craig Albernaz came Dustin Lind as lead hitting coach, who brought experience building the Giants’ and Phillies’ hitting programs.

Have these showy moves made much difference? The truth is: not really, at least not yet. Last season, the Birds hit .235 with a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 24.2% strikeout rate. This season, they’re hitting .233 with a 42.5% hard-hit rate and a 24.7% strikeout rate. (Cue the Spiderman meme here.) If anything, they’re swinging for the fences a bit more and the contact is slightly worse.

Broken down by pitch type, the pattern becomes easy to see. Against fastballs, the Orioles own a .266 average, .379 wOBA, and a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% of balls in play. All are above average. They’re better, too, than in 2025, when the Birds hit heaters to the tune of a .244 average, .334 wOBA, and 49% hard-hit rate.

The trouble, like the old saying goes, is with the curve. As of early May, pointed out a Baltimore Sports and Life piece (appropriately titled “At some point, someone’s gotta hit a curveball”), the O’s were hitting just .182 with a .250 wOBA and a 35.4% strikeout rate (league average is 29%)—among the worst numbers in baseball. (Last season, those numbers were .206, .272 and 32.1%, so the team is now appreciably worse.) That shouldn’t be surprising given some garish individual performances you already know about: Colton Cowser has two hits off a breaking ball all year; Coby Mayo boasts a 41% strikeout rate against curveballs.

Is it the exit velocities? I’m not sure. What I can say is that exit velocity does not correlate with offensive excellence—otherwise, the Mets and the Red Sox would be contenders this year. For that matter, these five teams are the best at hitting curveballs: LAD, SEA, CLE, PHI, MIL. In exit velocity, Philadelphia ranks fourth, LAD fifth, Seattle eighth, Milwaukee 28th and Cleveland 29th. I’m no statistician, but I think it seems like average exit velocity and hitting curveballs should have nothing to do with each other. I don’t know.  But I do think the Orioles should start to give press conferences explaining why they’re so bad at hitting curveballs.

One more trend that sticks out: the terrible splits against lefties. Last year the team batting average splits against lefty/righty starters were .230/.236. This year, it’s .210/.240. That’s pretty bad. The main offenders: Leody Taveras (.156 BA against LHP), Colton Cowser (.200), Gunnar Henderson (.211) and Jeremiah Jackson (.231).

Which brings us back to Ben McDonald. He’s right that hard-hit rates and spin rates don’t matter if you’re not producing. He’s right, too, to question whether there’s too much of an emphasis on hitting the ball hard, which seemingly has little to do with offensive excellence in general.

But it seems like the curveball problems are a different thing, and so are the roster construction problems that explain why this team is so outmatched by lefties, and why the young draft classes aren’t popping like other youngsters like Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Konnor Griffin.

Can all the Orioles’ struggles be laid at the feet of GM Mike Elias, wondered Steve Melewski the other day. No, he said, given the bad injury luck and underperformance. Can they be laid on the coaches? I’m inclined to think that yes, in part.

But regrettably, it feels like the blame has to go around: players, coaches, scouts, management. Losing in myriad ways, in such convincing fashion, is unfortunately a team job.