MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 04: A sponsorship view of Booking.com signage prior to Game Two of the National League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Sunday, October 4, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
Unfortunately, we have reached a day without baseball. The ALDS continues tomorrow, ostensibly, if it didn’t end last night. (Again, I write these in the past, so you have more information at the moment than I do.) And the NLCS doesn’t start until Sunday, with the ALCS starting on Monday.
So it’s as good a time as any to discuss how we’re feeling about the playoffs so far. Personally, there is not enough chaos. I want full series, dang it. And so far we’ve had four sweeps and two 3-1 series wins. That’s boring (I say, as a fan of a team who is not in the playoffs at all and who therefore doesn’t have to bear the stress personally).
Where’s the drama? Where’s the chaos and horrible stomachache of a double elimination game?
Hopefully those things are coming in the division championship series. And hopefully the Milwaukee Brewers are able to take out the Los Angeles Dodgers. I mean, realistically, if I can just get the latter, I will forgive the former.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers is safe at home when catcher Ben Rortvedt #47 of the Los Angeles Dodgers can't make the tag in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on August 16, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After taking down the San Diego Padres in four games in the NLDS, the Milwaukee Brewers are now set for a rematch with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, the second consecutive year and third time in nine years these teams will meet in the final step before the World Series.
The Brewers, who finished with an MLB-best 103-59 record, slightly outpaced the 100-win Dodgers, who finished with 100 wins for the sixth time in the last 10 seasons. Milwaukee was strong and balanced throughout the regular season, becoming the first 100-win team in MLB history to not have a win streak of six or more games. These two teams faced each other for a total of seven games in the regular season, with Milwaukee winning four of seven, including a 1-2 record at home in their May series and a 3-1 record in Los Angeles in their August series.
On the injury front, the Brewers are without a few pitchers, including Brandon Woodruff, who could potentially return for the World Series if his current throwing program progresses well. Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester, and Angel Zerpa all underwent season-ending surgeries this year and won’t be back until at least the start of 2027.
The veteran Dodgers have been dinged up throughout the season, and the latest injury is to utility man Miguel Rojas, who exited NLDS Game 3 early with lower back and hip pain. He remained on the roster for the remainder of the NLDS and is considered day-to-day, but it’s certainly possible he’s out for this series. Pitchers Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Ben Casparius, Jake Cousins, Gavin Stone, and Blake Treinen are all out for the year, while Will Klein, who has been out since the beginning of August, could be available as a depth arm if needed. It should also be noted that star Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching the rest of the year as he faced multiple setbacks in his return; he’s also a bit dinged up with lingering left knee inflammation and a right biceps injury, but it hasn’t kept him out of the lineup.
The Brewers have one of the most well-balanced offenses in baseball, and that’s a major reason they’re in the final four teams. Looking at NLDS performances, William Contreras led the squad with six hits, including a pair of homers, while Jackson Chourio drove in six with a homer and a pair of singles, coming up big in the clutch. Sal Frelick had two RBIs as part of a three-hit series, while Christian Yelich added five hits and an RBI. Cooper Pratt and Garrett Mitchell each had four hits, and Brice Turang and Jake Bauers seemed to hit a bit of a groove in the final game of the series after struggling for the first three games, a good sign for the coming NLCS. Joey Ortiz, David Hamilton, Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sánchez, and Luis Lara round things out. As a team, the Brewers hit .258/.341/.403 (.744 OPS ranks third) for the season, slugging 154 homers (tied for 28th), scoring 832 runs (second), and swiping 162 bags (fifth).
The Dodgers have a power-heavy team, as evidenced by their eight homers in the NLDS. Max Muncy led the way with three long balls, while Freddie Freeman added a pair. Enrique Hernández, Teoscar Hernández, and Kyle Tucker added one each, and Mookie Betts added three hits. Ohtani was fairly quiet in the series, slashing .154/.267/.154 with two singles, two walks, and a stolen base. Will Smith and Tommy Edman also struggled, combining to hit just 1-for-23 in the series. The NLDS roster also featured Josue De Paula, Hyeseong Kim, Andy Pages, and the aforementioned Miguel Rojas. As a team, the Dodgers hit .257/.338/.424 (.762 OPS ranks second) for the season, slugging 204 homers (tied for seventh), scoring 801 runs (fourth), and swiping 72 bags (28th).
On the mound, the Brewers used only six of their nine bullpen arms, meaning by the time the NLCS begins on Sunday, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, and Chad Patrick will have gone two full weeks without pitching in a live game. Among the six bullpen arms who did pitch, though, they all did pretty well — across 19 bullpen innings, they allowed three runs, just one of which was earned (a homer allowed by JoJo Romero). Trevor Megill, DL Hall, and Aaron Ashby led that group, with Ashby going 5 2/3 scoreless frames over three appearances, striking out five. Megill added a pair of saves, and Abner Uribe pitched in all four games, allowing one unearned run over 3 2/3 innings.
In terms of starters, it seems obvious that Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson will each take the mound twice in a full seven-game series. The other three starters are up in the air — we’ll likely see Dustin May and Robert Gasser as we did in the NLDS, but the other game could very well be a bullpen day. As a staff, the Brewers had a 3.51 regular season ERA (second), including a 3.61 starter ERA (fifth) and a 3.40 bullpen ERA (third). They struck out 1,544 batters (second) over 1,446 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers have arguably the scariest pitching staff in baseball, at least on paper. For the bullpen, that includes multiple guys who could conceivably be considered closers, led by Edwin Díaz, who had a bit of an up-and-down year but looked solid in three outings against the Braves, tossing three scoreless innings with one hit allowed and three strikeouts en route to a pair of saves. Evan Phillips also picked up a save in the series, and Tanner Scott and Roki Sasaki are both closer-esque arms as well, though Scott struggled in the NLDS, allowing two runs over 2 2/3 innings. The bullpen also features another long-relief arm in Kris Bubic (who very well may start in this series) and true relievers in Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia, and Brock Stewart.
They’ll be using Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow in starting roles, and you can bet that manager Dave Roberts will be looking for length out of each of them. They all pitched fairly well in the NLDS, allowing one run apiece, though with varying distance — Snell went just 3 2/3 innings, allowing five walks and three hits, whereas Yamamoto worked seven strong frames with 10 strikeouts and Skubal went six innings with seven strikeouts. Glasnow fell right in the middle, going 4 2/3 innings with five walks and a hit allowed while striking out five. As a staff, the Dodgers had a 3.55 regular season ERA (fourth), including a 3.43 starter ERA (second) and a 3.74 bullpen ERA (ninth). They struck out 1,521 batters (fourth) over 1,435 2/3 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Note: Pitching matchups will be filled in as they’re announced
Game 1: Sunday, October 11 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 2: Monday, October 12 @ 4:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 3: Wednesday, October 14 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 4: Thursday, October 15 @ 8:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 16 @ 8:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Sunday, October 18 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): Monday, October 19 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
How to watch and listen
Sunday, October 11: Nationally televised on FOX & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Monday, October 12: Nationally televised on FOX/FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Wednesday, October 14: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Thursday, October 15: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Friday, October 16: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Sunday, October 18: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Monday, October 19: Nationally televised on FOX/FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
This will be another fun battle with the two-time reigning champion Dodgers. You can be sure the Brewers aren’t overlooking them, but do they have what it takes to take down a team filled with high-paid veterans? I say yes. Milwaukee has plenty of young’uns, and the scrappy, fundamental baseball they play seems like a good counter to the Dodgers. As closely fought as the NLDS against the Padres was, I think we’ll see more of the same here — plenty of low-scoring games that come down to the bullpens. Give me the Brewers in six.
Jaiden Lo Re of the Delmarva Shorebirds hits the ball during a Minor League Baseball game at Arthur W. Perdue Stadium in Salisbury, United States, on August 2, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Orioles haven’t made a lot of noise outside the early rounds of the draft under Mike Elias. Of the Elias draftees currently on the 40-man roster, only Coby Mayo was drafted outside the top 100 picks of a draft (Mayo was pick 103 in the 4th round in 2020). However, with fast-rising prospects Jaiden Lo Re and DJ Layton, Elias may have found some mid-round picks that could turn into future major leaguers.
Lo Re was one of the true breakout players throughout the organization. The high school SS out of Scottsdale, AZ wasn’t one of MLB.com’s top 200 prospects for the 2025 draft, but caught the eye of Elias and his scouting department. Baltimore took the now 19-year-old with the 154th pick in the 2025 draft and signed him for an above-slot-value $562,500 to lure him away from a BYU commitment.
Despite being drafted in July of 2025, the 5’11”, switch-hitting infielder didn’t make his minor league debut until the start of the 2026 season. The Orioles chose to start him off in rookie ball, as he made his pro debut in early May. Lo Re only lasted 20 games in the Florida Complex League, however, thanks to his red-hot start to the year. In 65 ABs at rookie ball, Lo Re slashed .354/.421/.462 while walking 9 times against 6 Ks and adding 7 stolen bases.
That impressive showing earned Lo Re a step up to Low-A Delmarva at the beginning of June. In his first month with the Shorebirds, the infielder continued to be an on-base machine. In his first 20 games with Delmarva, Lo Re hit .333 with a .471 OBP, as he collected 23 hits and walked 18 times against just 8 strikeouts. July in Salisbury saw the 19-year-old cool off just a little, as he only slashed .299/.377/.433, but did start a 12-game hitting streak.
He started to show a little more pop in August, launching 6 doubles and a triple while hitting .343 and posting a .926 OPS. That final hot stretch for the Shorebirds earned Lo Re a late-season promotion to High-A Frederick. In his first seven games with the Keys, the teenager definitely showed signs of going through an adjustment. In his first 19 ABs for Frederick, Lo Re hit only .158 with a .638 OPS. However, he turned it around to end the year, slashing .387/.406/.484 across his last 7 games of the year to truly establish himself at High-A.
The former 5th-round pick also went from high school infielder to professional utility man in his first season as a professional. Split across the three levels he played at in 2026, Lo Re logged 100+ innings at 2B, SS, 3B and CF. One professional season in A-ball is far from enough to know if he’ll make it to Baltimore one day. But early returns on the Arizona native paint a picture of a Blaze Alexander-like player.
Charting a similar path in 2026 was fellow utility man DJ Layton. The 20-year-old came to the Orioles’ organization as a 6th-round pick (189th overall) in the 2024 draft. He was another high school SS whom the O’s paid over slot value for, giving out a $715,800 bonus to get Layton to forgo his Southern Miss commitment. The 2025 season saw little to write home about for Layton, who hit .183 with a .597 OPS in 40 games in rookie ball.
Despite that inauspicious start to his professional career, the Orioles promoted Layton to Delmarva to begin the 2026 season. Early on, that move paid off for Layton and the Shorebirds. Through his first 22 games with Delmarva, Layton hit .284 with a .896 OPS while walking 20 times and stealing 8 bags.
The 20-year-old’s performance dipped in May, with his average dropping to .250 and OPS dipping to .765. Those struggles continued into June, with his average dipping further down to .214, his power nearly non-existent with a .343 slugging percentage and a still declining OPS at .732.
Layton began to turn it around as the calendar turned to July, eventually earning a promotion to Frederick at the beginning of August. Over his last 30 games with the Shorebirds, his average ticked up to .242 while posting an elite .390 on-base percentage. When the switch-hitting utility man was promoted to Frederick on August 11th, he signed off on a Low-A career that saw him slash .247/.396/.389 with 73 walks and 32 stolen bases.
The North Carolina native opened up his High-A account with a 3-for-4 night that included his first Keys home run. He’d settle back to being much the same hitter he was at Low-A after that. Over 25 games with Frederick, Layton slashed .238/.390/.393 while walking 21 times and stealing 13 bases.
At this point, Layton is more projection than production. He’s a high-level athlete with 65-grade speed and a 60-grade arm. Eventually, that may turn into more over-the-fence production, but that’s yet to show up. In 117 games across the two levels of A-ball, he only hit 8 homers while collecting 25 doubles.
What he does extremely well already is get on base and create havoc on the base paths. He walked 92 times in 489 PAs, an 18.8% walk rate that would’ve led the majors by almost two whole percentage points. His 45 stolen bases were also one more than 80-grade speedster Enrique Bradfield Jr. His athleticism should also allow him to stick at a premium position long term, with Layton playing 500+ innings at SS in 2026 while also seeing significant time in CF and at 2B.
Hannah Keyser writes that Junior Caminero would be a household name if he played for the Yankees. Instead, his Rays just sent the Yankees home. She profiles of Caminero here.
LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 23: (L-R) Actors Glenn Howerton, Kaitlin Olson, Rob McElhenney and Danny DeVito act during a dance scene on the set of "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" on May 23, 2007 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Buckner/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Yesterday, you read Part I of our first Roundtable for the year, where we talked shop: Bucks record, offensive and defensive ratings, team MVP, and who will make the biggest leap. You know, the more typical season predictions. Part II similarly predicts what’s ahead—but gets a little bolder. Enjoy!
Who (or what) will be the biggest surprise—for better or worse?
Jack: If my “Rollins will put himself in All-Star consideration” answer doesn’t qualify, I will say that Myles Turner has a career-best season. I feel like Turner’s role last year was really suboptimal. He was basically asked to stand out on the three-point line while GA drove to the rim, and then, in the few opportunities he actually got the ball, he was expected to make shots. Doesn’t work that way. You need guys to feel like they’re involved in the game—I think MT will get that this year.
Jackson: I think Myles Turner is due for a resurgence this season. Anyone who followed my articles or ramblings on the podcast know that I was hammering the table for Turner to be used more as a floor spacer on offense and more than just a drop coverage guy on defense in the pick-and-roll. I think he has so much more to offer, and I think he’ll trend back to being an underrated player in the NBA, rather than a potentially overpaid one.
Zac: Nate Ament’s arrival. Folks were largely down on Ament when the Bucks drafted him—even before they drafted him, really—and since then it’s almost become widely accepted as fact that he’ll play most of his basketball this season with the Wisconsin Herd and will be largely ineffective against the big boys in the NBA. Call me overly optimistic, but I see Ament being thrown into the fire—and being all the better for it. He’ll find his niche with this group as a stretch forward who can attack closeouts, earn minutes on the regular, and find a way to have the naysayers rooting for him.
Imagine the wrath of a scorned Kryptonian. That is what the NBA has to look forward to this season… Thanks goodness Superman landed in Milwaukee.
Nate
Aiden: I see the biggest surprise for this Bucks team being fan favourite AJ Green slipping out of the rotation and possibly being traded. I love AJ Green; he has been one of my favourite players over these last few years—his card is one of my favourites in my personal collection. That being said, we have a logjam at the guard position, with the departure of Giannis his skill set has become expendable, and playing him at the three just isn’t feasible. He will be an enticing player for contending teams hoping to add an elite shooter, and the Bucks will be able to get some value from him.
Nate: Kel’el Ware, for better. Imagine the wrath of a scorned Kryptonian. That is what the NBA has to look forward to this season. Ware has had his motor questioned really since college, but his freakish athleticism has never been questioned. While motor issues are nothing to write-off, at 22 years old I am of the belief there is an element to his motor issues that deal with his processing of the game and decision making. That has shown signs of steady improvement each year he has been on our radar throughout college and his two seasons in the association, and this year will be his breakout year. I got the sense at media day he was very ready to start a new chapter, and I think that Jenkins will know exactly how to maximize his strengths. Thanks goodness Superman landed in Milwaukee.
Dax: Jaime Jaquez Jr. will surprise fans this year with his likability. While he may not “wow” in any specific statistical category, he’s a Swiss Army knife and one of the best at that—he took second in 6MOY voting last year. Though he can’t be the Mayor of Milwaukee, he can be Budget Bob. Not to mention, his flow goes crazy.
Jon Horst pulls off another trade deadline move. What is it? (Format as a Shams tweet)
MILWAUKEE, WI – JANUARY 24: General Manager Jon Horst of the Milwaukee Bucks talks to the media before the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on January 24, 2024 at the Fiserv Forum Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images). | NBAE via Getty Images
BROOKLYN, NY – JUNE 25: Shams Charania looks on during the 2025 NBA Draft – Round One on June 25, 2025 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE(Photo by Evan Yu/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Jack: BREAKING: The Milwaukee Bucks are trading Myles Turner to the Toronto Raptors for Jakob Poeltl and a 2028 first-round pick, sources tell ESPN.
Jackson: BREAKING: The Milwaukee Bucks are trading Tyler Herro to the Dallas Mavericks for Max Christie, Zacchaire Risacher, a 2028 first round pick via the Oklahoma City Thunder and a 2029 second round pick via the Houston Rockets.
Zac: BREAKING: The Milwaukee Bucks are Trading Myles Turner to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Jakob Poetl and a first round pick, sources tell ESPN. Turner’s agent, Austin Brown of CAA Sports, and Poeltl’s agents, Michael Tellem and Sam Goldfeder of Excel Sports Management, were pivotal to the deal going through.
Aiden: BREAKING: The Milwaukee Bucks are trading AJ Green to the Denver Nuggets for Zeke Naji, Julian Strawther, and two second-round picks.
Nate: BREAKING: The Detroit Pistons are finalizing a deal to send Jalen Duren to the Milwaukee Bucks for Myles Turner, Kevin Porter Jr., and the 2031 Miami Heat unprotected first round pick. Duren agreed to a four year, $172 million dollar deal with a player option on year 4. (This might age like milk in 12 hours).
Editor’s note: It did.
Dax: The New Orleans Pelicans are trading Zion Williamson to the Milwaukee Bucks for Myles Turner, Kevin Porter Jr., Pete Nance, and Miami’s 2031 first-round pick.
Stephen A. Smith calls you up as a guest panelist on First Take. What’s your hot take for the season ahead?
Jack:
Jackson: Brayden Burries wins ROY over the top three draft picks of the 2026 class.
Zac: The Clippers, Nets, Kings, Hawks, and Mavs aren’t the only ones Brayden Burries is going to make look stupid for letting him slip to 10. I don’t give a damn! AJ Dybantsa, Darren Peterson, Cam Boozer, and Caleb Wilson better be All-Stars, ’cause Burries is comin’.
Aiden: My GOAT, LeBron James, will lead this 76ers squad to a championship this season, securing his fifth ring.
Nate: Stephen A: If the Charlotte Hornets don’t give Brandon Miller a rookie-scale max extension it will be a travesty after the breakout year he is having.
Dax: The 2026-27 Milwaukee Bucks will be more fun than the 2018-19 Brooklyn Nets.
We’ve garnered the community’s perspective of this—and Camille Davis’ too—so finish this sentence:
I will judge this season a success if…
Jack: there is an easily identifiable direction with the team and franchise.
Jackson: the rookies look pretty good and the pieces the Bucks got from Miami pan out in some degree.
Zac: the Bucks are fun to watch again.
Aiden: the Bucks surpass the 20-win mark, and if Brayden Burries makes an NBA All-Rookie Team.
Nate: the Bucks exit the season with a discernible identity.
Dax: the Bucks beat the Heat on national television.
That’s a wrap on our preseason Roundtable, folks. We’ll reconvene like King Arthur’s men again in December for an early-season identity check. In the meantime, join the table by sharing your answers in the comments.
DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 5: Ryan Dunn #0 of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball during the game against the Detroit Pistons during a preseason game on October 5, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Preseason rotations can offer insight into how a coaching staff plans to construct its rotations once the regular season begins. They can also serve as an evaluation tool, giving us chances to see what individual players can offer, whether their offseason development translates to the court, and how those performances might shape decisions as the season approaches.
One interesting wrinkle we’ve seen through the first two preseason games is that Ryan Dunn has gotten the nod over Rasheer Fleming in the first wave of substitutions. With 3:41 remaining in the first quarter against the Pistons on Monday, Dunn entered the game for Dillon Brooks. The same pattern followed against the Bulls on Wednesday, when Dunn checked in with 3:46 remaining in the first.
So the question becomes whether this is something head coach Jordan Ott is simply experimenting with early in the preseason or a precursor to what we’ll ultimately see when the regular season begins on October 23 against the Portland Trail Blazers.
I think it makes sense. And that’s coming from somebody who’s a card-carrying member of the Rasheer Fleming fan club. While I certainly want to see Fleming receive opportunities this season, I believe the responsible approach is to give your third-year wing, a player whose fourth-year option you recently picked up, an opportunity to demonstrate whether meaningful development is occurring.
Because when you look at Ryan Dunn’s performance last season, he didn’t necessarily regress. He plateaued. His first and second seasons were remarkably similar, especially when you begin digging into the statistical analysis. The production was largely the same, and the developmental leap you hoped to see never really materialized.
That free throw percentage. Oof.
The question now is whether Year 3 will be when that potential growth finally materializes. And the only way you’re going to determine whether Dunn carries value moving forward is by giving him opportunities and putting him in the best position to succeed. That position? Coming off the bench with the second unit, a group fortified by the three-point shooting of Collin Gillespie and Luke Kennard.
Because ultimately, that’s where Dunn is going to earn his paycheck. His ability to be an effective defensive player alongside shooters who can generate offense while he’s on the floor is what makes him valuable. And if he starts knocking down three-pointers? Jordan Ott begins looking like a genius, and the front office and player development staff can start patting each other on the back. Because if Dunn can become a legitimate three-and-D player, he’ll earn rotational minutes this season and potentially for years to come.
Through the first two preseason games, we’ve seen the instinctive defensive abilities Dunn showcased at the University of Virginia, the same instincts that have earned him opportunities early in his NBA career. Playing alongside Jordan Goodwin, the two have created havoc for opposing offensive players, bringing an impressive level of energy and disruption to the second unit.
As for the three-point shooting? He’s still not there, going 0-of-3 through the first two games.
I expect Dunn to continue receiving these opportunities when the regular season begins, even if we see less of him as the preseason progresses and the coaching staff gives Fleming more opportunities to showcase his abilities.
Ultimately, it will be on Dunn to earn the right to remain in that rotation. Because if he falters, Fleming is waiting right behind him, eager to take advantage of whatever opportunity becomes available. That’s a good luxury to have if you’re the Phoenix Suns. But it’s only a luxury if those players can actually produce.
BROOKLYN, NY - OCTOBER 8: Tyrese Maxey #0 and LeBron James #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers talk during the game against the Brooklyn Nets on October 8, 2026 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Philadelphia 76ers headed north on Thursday night to continue their preseason campaign with a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.
The most exciting part is that it served as a first real glimpse of the new Sixers’ Big 5 — LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe — starting a game together. Of course, it’s preseason, so while not exactly a true representation of what we might see later this month when the regular campaign begins, it’s the closest thing to the real deal that we’ve gotten so far! The starting five had two first-half stints on the floor all together against the Nets, providing a look at how the offense may be run and the type of ball movement they’re aiming form together.
So, let’s see what the next era of Sixers basketball looked like on Thursday night. We’ll also take a specific look at LeBron in his preseason debut for Philadelphia after he missed their opening contest the other night. Plus, catch up with the entire squad with a full game highlight reel.
Let’s get into it.
The new Sixers’ Big 5
The Sixers' new Big 5 — LeBron, Embiid, Brown, Maxey and Edgecombe — played (preseason) together for the first time tonight.
Here's a glimpse into the pace they played with, the offensive progression, off-ball movements and more in a highlight reel of the 5 together ⬇️🔥 pic.twitter.com/LYdWew3UNH
This is what we’ve been waiting for! Well, kind of. Of course, it’s just preseason, but this was our first chance to see the new starting five of the Sixers all together. Thursday night provided a bit of insight into the pace of play this lineup seems to be looking for, the progression of their offense, off-ball movements and more.
A couple of things I noted in real time watching the game: the clear desire to get out in transition as often as they can, combining the speed of players like Edgecombe or Maxey with the excellent passing and awareness of someone like LeBron; Maxey and Edgecombe looking perfectly comfortable getting open off the ball with LeBron finding them for assists; and how often young teams like the Nets are going to have to resort to fouling when faced with trying to stop Brown, Embiid and LeBron under the rim.
There’s still a lot of work to do — especially on the defensive end and with overall sloppiness — to get this five all in better sync with each other, but they certainly seem to be on the right track so far.
LeBron James makes his preseason debut for the Sixers
LeBron James made his (preseason) Sixers debut tonight 🤩 A fun glimpse especially at the potential his playmaking has with this Sixers lineup, especially with off-ball movements of guys like Maxey and Edgecombe.
The King made his Sixers preseason debut on Thursday after missing their opener on Monday. Biggest theme that stood out to me was that James immediately went to work diming up everyone he could, whenever he could. He was clearly not focused on forcing shots up himself, scoring 10 points on just 1-for-1 field goal shooting, notching the rest of his scores at the line. James instead seemed laser-focused on racking up assists for his teammates, more often than not finding them in stride of their cuts right to the rim. I think players like Edgecombe, Maxey and even Jabari Walker are going to find a ton of opportunities to flourish as off-ball scorers with James around.
Of course, that’s just one thing that James did right, too. He had a few good high-effort plays, drew some fouls and shot well from the line. Seems like this guy is pretty good at basketball, huh?
Game highlight reel
Catch up on the entire contest, from the stars tipping off down to the final whistle, with the game highlight reel below!
And finally, catch up with all of the Sixers in their second preseason contest — from the debut of their new Big 5 together to players down the depth chart — with this full game highlight reel vs. Nets.
(Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There is a common narrative that European coaches struggle in the NBA because of their demanding and emotional approach. That it is one of the biggest things holding them back because they want to put themselves at the center of attention, while the NBA is ultimately a players’ league. They are often viewed as too tactically focused and not focused enough on catering to the people who are under the brightest spotlight – the superstars who have done the most to make the game a global phenomenon.
One coach who has managed to bridge the gap between the European and American approaches, preserving the essence of both and doing so successfully, is Darko Rajakovic. Highlights of his emotional exchanges with referees often make the rounds, but so do his moments with the media, such as when he called Scottie Barnes a future face of the league after what he described at the time as Barnes being treated unfairly.
At the same time, Rajakovic is widely regarded around the league as a player’s coach, someone who knows how to connect with stars. Russell Westbrook is perhaps the best example back when both were in Oklahoma City. And since becoming the head coach of the Toronto Raptors, Rajakovic has shown that he can successfully balance those two sides of coaching — perhaps his greatest strength.
However, the upcoming season will put him to a much bigger test and bring a different kind of pressure than he has faced previously. The reason is clear: the arrival of Kawhi Leonard has shifted the Raptors’ trajectory more firmly toward championship aspirations. FanDuel has Toronto with the sixth-lowest championship odds entering the 2026-27 NBA season.
“We entered the rebuilding process two years ago, and in a relatively short period of time, we managed to make significant progress. The core of the team was made up of young players we drafted and developed within our system, and with a few additions from outside, we took another step last season, going from 30 wins to 46,” Rajakovic told SB Nation, explaining how this team was built.
Along with all of those qualities, the Serbian coach is also known for his ability to develop young talent. Barnes is gradually approaching his full potential, while Collin Murray-Boyles has already begun showing that he can be a very valuable addition.
“That progress came through building our culture, developing different habits and establishing the style of play we wanted. So we give a lot of credit to our young players, who took a big step forward last season. Our ambitions are now as high as they can be. We want to get the Toronto Raptors to a point where we can compete for championships, compete against the best teams in the league and try to achieve the best possible results. Everything we do is geared toward that.
“That’s why we made the decision to make an important trade and bring in Kawhi Leonard. He’s a proven NBA champion who has already won a championship here, and that brings another level of seriousness and quality to our team. The ambitions remain as high as ever — to raise our level from game to game, compete with the best and see where that takes us. We expect this to be a good season for us.”
Rajakovic also had a demanding summer. The Raptors emerged as a potential destination for Leonard before the situation became entangled in an investigation. That complicated Toronto’s preparations for the season, but ultimately, everything ended the way the organization had hoped.
“We focused on what we could control. We did a great job with our young players, who worked extremely hard throughout the summer. We had certain expectations and wanted everything to work out in the best possible way for us and for Kawhi to come. Unfortunately, that process took 76 days before he finally arrived. It disrupted our plans a little bit when it came to integrating him with the team and having him around his teammates more during the summer. But it is what it is. Training camp has started, and we’re going to make the most of this time to prepare for the season,” Rajakovic said.
Many have compared Leonard and Barnes. Both can defend multiple positions, neither is a natural-born scorer, and both have built up their offensive games through hard work. They appear to complement each other well, while also sharing several similarities in their games.
“Kawhi’s arrival is going to have a really positive impact on Barnes, on the team in general, and on RJ Barrett, Quickley and all of our young players. We’re a very young team. Kawhi is 35 years old, he has a tremendous amount of experience, and I think all of our players have a great deal of respect for him and everything he has accomplished.
“He has matured a lot, both as a person and as a player. He’s going to bring a great presence to the locker room, be a good leader and be able to help our players individually, but also our coaching staff and the team as a whole. If we didn’t believe that, we wouldn’t have brought him in. He’s going to have a really positive impact on our entire team, bringing a new level of seriousness and accountability. All of our players can benefit tremendously from having him here and from growing alongside him.”
Early in his NBA career, Rajakovic was a scout for the San Antonio Spurs and was in attendance at the 2011 NBA Draft, when Leonard was selected 15th overall by the Texas franchise. He has therefore been familiar with Leonard’s abilities from the very beginning of his career.
“Kawhi is a generational talent, a player who has left his mark on the NBA over the past 15 years. When he’s healthy and on the floor, he makes an enormous difference. I’m glad he came back home. The Toronto Raptors are his team and his home. We hope he plays here and finishes his career with this team, that one day his jersey will be retired and hanging in the rafters of our arena. He’s a player who has accomplished so much individually, and he also helped both the Toronto Raptors and the San Antonio Spurs win championships.”
The Raptors will have a difficult path toward their ultimate goal. The Eastern Conference appears deeper than it has been in a long time, especially following LeBron James’ arrival in Philadelphia and several other major moves around the conference, as Rajakovic discussed.
“The NBA has never been stronger. There’s a group of veterans led by LeBron James who are incredibly good players and can make a huge difference, while at the same time, there are a lot of young players bringing tremendous quality, and many of them are capable of playing at a high level from the moment they enter the NBA. So I think the level of talent across the entire league is extremely high. The Eastern Conference is incredibly strong with the trades and players coming over from the Western Conference.
The Knicks won the championship last season, Philadelphia is very powerful, Boston has a great team, Detroit, Cleveland, us, Atlanta got better, Orlando got better… Miami with Giannis is there, too – I don’t want to forget anyone. There’s a group of young teams that are extremely talented – Chicago, Washington, Charlotte… The competition is fantastic, and this season is going to be one where nobody is going to tank, nobody is going to intentionally lose games. So it’s going to be an extremely competitive season, and I’m very excited about all of it. I can’t wait for the season to start,” Rajakovic told SB Nation.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are back at home tonight after a 5-day break to play the Pittsburgh Penguins at Nationwide Arena.
Pittsburgh Penguins - 2-2-0 - 4 Points - Lost 2 - 4th in the Metro
Columbus Blue Jackets - 1-1-0 - 2 Points - Lost 1 - 5th in the Metro
Team Notes Per CBJ PR
The Blue Jackets have played a league-low 2 games so far this season, and haven't played since October 3rd.
This is the first of two back-to-backs this month as they travel to St. Louis on Saturday.
Player Notes Per CBJ PR
Charlie Coyle has tallied 7-15-22 with four multi-point efforts in 38 career GP against Pittsburgh and has points in seven of his last nine games (3-5-8).
Conor Garland has picked up 3-4-7 in 13 career matchups vs. Pittsburgh with points in three of his past four matchups (1-2-3).
Sean Monahan has collected 6-9-15 in 27 career games against the Penguins, with points in four of his last five games (1-4-5) and 3-6-9 in his last 11 overall.
Dmitri Voronkov has tallied 6-1-7 in 11 career contests against Pittsburgh, with all points in his last seven games.
Zach Werenski has earned 6-12-18 in 25 career games vs. Pittsburgh, including points in three consecutive contests (2-3-5), as well as having 4-6-10 in his last eight matchups against the Penguins.
Blue Jackets Stats
Power Play - 40.0 - 2nd in the NHL
Penalty Kill - 66.7% - 26th in the NHL
Goals For - 7 - 10th in the NHL
Goals Against - 7 - 5th in the NHL
Penguins Stats
Power Play - 30.8% - 10th in the NHL
Penalty Kill - 90.0% - 6th in the NHL
Goals For - 18 - 3rd in the NHL
Goals Against - 13 - 25th in the NHL
Series History vs. ThePenguins
The Blue Jackets are 13-11-6 at home against Pittsburgh, and 20-30-11 all-time.
Columbus went 2-0-2 in 2025-26.
Columbus has earned points in four consecutive games against Pittsburgh (2-0-2), tying for the longest run of that kind in franchise history (2nd instance, other: 2/17/01 - 12/31/03, 2-0-2).
The Jackets have earned points in seven of the past eight games (5-1-2) and have earned points in nine of the last 13 contests in the overall series (6-4-3).
15 of the last 17 games in the overall series have seen the winning team score 4-plus goals (including SO goals).
Who To Watch For ThePenguins
Tommy Novak leads the team with 5 points.
Sidney Crosby has 0 goals and 2 assists.
Erik Karlsson leads the Pens with 4 assists.
Artūrs Šilovs is 2-1 with an .859 SV%.
Injured Reserve & Other Injuries
Dante Fabbro - Broken Hand - IR - 2 Games Missed
Isac Lundestrom - Achilles Surgery - LTIR - 2 Games Missed
Ivan Provorov - Lower Body - IR - 2 Games Missed
TOTAL MAN GAMES LOST: 10
How to Watch & Listen: Tonight's game will be simulcast on The Blue Jackets Hockey Network and 97.1 The Fan, with Steve Mears behind the mic doing the play-by-play.
TV: CBJHN (Spectrum HD Ch. 320/1320; IP Ch. 349; Prime Video, Fubo)
Next Up For Columbus: The CBJ take on the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight at 7 PM.
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ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 03: Austin Wells #28 of the New York Yankees slides into third base during Game One of the American League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Saturday, October 3, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Another year, another disappointing postseason exit for the Yankees, who were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series after another frustrating and heartbreaking defeat on Wednesday night. The Bombers haven’t won it all since 2009, and they are evidently falling behind other organizations in recent years despite their high payroll.
What’s preventing the Yankees from lifting the World Series trophy again? What’s keeping them from competing toe to toe against the very best? That’s a long, complex question, but from this particular writer’s perspective, five reasons stand out. This is not meant to be a ranking, rather a full accounting of possible causes. There’s no one cure-all; most, if not all, will need to be addressed come 2027.
Underachieving in the regular season
Since 2021, the Yankees have failed to win at least 90 games just once, when they were 82-80 in 2023 and missed the postseason. However, they have captured the division just twice out of those six seasons.
Home-field advantage is big in October, and failing to win the division means they won’t get it if they advance to the Division Series. Of course, winning on the road is a must for every top-tier contender—the 1996 Yankees famously went 8-0 on the road en route to their championship—but higher-seeded squads who additionally play most of their games at home are notoriously hard to beat, as the Yankees have repeatedly found out.
The Yankees haven’t enjoyed home-field advantage in any of the postseason series they’ve lost, dating all the way back to the beginning of this run with Aaron Judge in 2017. Houston somewhat infamously had it in the 2017, 2019, and 2022 ALCS battles; Boston had it in 2018 and 2021; Tampa Bay had it in 2020 (albeit at empty Petco) and 2026; the Dodgers had it 2024; and the Blue Jays had it in 2025. Obviously the Yankees have had issues fending off top playoff foes in their own ballpark anyway, but that’s also all after falling behind the eight-ball in a hurry in so many of those early-series games.
Failure to consistently put the ball in play
Unlike the Jays-Yankees 2025 AL Division Series, the home run output of both the Rays and the Yankees in this year’s matchup was fairly close, with Tampa Bay winning the battle 3-2. However, they struck out 18 times, and the Yankees 31. New York also lost the strikeout battle in that 2025 series vs. the Blue Jays, 37-24. Those are some lopsided totals. You can’t strike out that much and expect to win, especially if the power production isn’t there.
Yes, power is huge in the postseason. It’s almost always a deciding factor. But in instances in which pitching is so good, every detail counts. Putting the ball in play matters, too, and that’s a department in which the 2026 Yankees often failed: in the regular season, they were second in home runs, but 26th in batting average (.235) and fourth in strikeout percentage (K%, at 24.7 percent).
Lack of elite up-the-middle defense and athleticism
Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Ryan Vilade—just to name a few—aren’t particularly good defenders (Caminero did make some strides this year). However, they are all corner guys. Up the middle, they have mostly elite defenders such as shortstop Taylor Walls, second baseman Richie Palacio, and outfielders Chandler Simpson and Jonny DeLuca.
Walls finished the 2026 campaign with 21 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at shortstop, while Simpson had eight DRS and eight Outs Above Average (OAA) while playing mostly left field. DeLuca racked up five DRS and 13 (!) OAA in 787 innings in the outfield.
The Yanks had Trent Grisham and his -8 DRS and -6 OAA, clearly having lost much more than a step in center. Spencer Jones could be a bit of an adventure out there, too. The promising, but still inexperienced and erratic George Lombard Jr. was at shortstop. And, well, Jazz Chisholm Jr., doesn’t always make the best decisions on the field.
True contenders should have elite athletes making plays on the field and helping their pitching staff.
Flaws in player evaluation
At this point, it’s clear that the Rays have the clear edge here and make excellent use of their resources and modern approach to player analysis and evaluation. The Yankees, on the other hand, appear to be a step behind the elite and need new voices, methods, and practices. Whereas they have a good handle on their pitching apparatus with Matt Blake, James Rowson’s work since taking over the job at the start of 2024 has been a mixed bag, especially when Aaron Judge wasn’t available. No team plays at its best without its top player, but the Yankees were a bottom-10 offense from June 1st onward. Their ALDS was the worst of any offense in franchise history.
You see the difference between the two organizations in the seemingly ‘little’ things such as picking the right manager, lineup construction, defensive alignment, player development practices, coaching, and more. They are definitely not ‘little’.
Lack of fundamentals
Let’s face it: the Yankees lack fundamentals. We are not talking about playing small ball, executing sac bunts, hit-and-run, moving the runners, or things like that. We mean making the routine plays, swinging with purpose at the right pitches, laying off those outside the strike zone, running hard to first base and putting pressure on the fielders, playing defense the right (and smart) way, and exercising controlled aggressiveness on the basepaths.
Truly elite squads rarely give away outs on the basepaths, as Austin Wells did in Game 1. They don’t commit four errors in a postseason game (and even more misplays) as the Yankees did on Monday. They don’t try to force plays where they just don’t exist, or expand the strike zone so much.
Former Westlake High star Christian Yelich leads the former Southland products playing for the Brewers. (Charles Rex Arbogast / Associated Press)
If the Brewers are going to take down the heavily favored Dodgers, their group of Southland products will be key in the National League Championship Series that begins Sunday in Milwaukee.
This is awesome: @ChristianYelich sent a letter to the high school seniors at his alma mater.
Former Westlake star Christian Yelich is Mr. Brewer. He’s a three-time All-Star and the National League MVP in 2018. He’s always been willing to come back to the community and make contributions.
Giving back. Christian Yelich and Max Fried signing autographs on Saturday for Altadena Little Leaguers. pic.twitter.com/3fzOBF5bCw
First baseman Jake Bauers is a Marina High graduate who lost in the Southern Section Division 1 championship game at Dodger Stadium to Jack Flaherty and Harvard-Westlake 1-0. Here’s a look at Bauers this season.
Former Marina first baseman Jake Bauers has 21 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers. (Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)
Although they played their best game of the season overall, the Philadelphia Flyers' best still wasn't good enough, losing 2-1 to the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday night and dropping their fifth straight game.
Now 0-3-2, the Flyers will face the Boston Bruins in Boston on Saturday afternoon, and if they can't win that one, they will return home Sunday still winless. And on Sunday, they host Carolina... again.
The schedule isn't getting any easier for the juiceless Flyers, who were shut out at 5-on-5 for the second time already this season. In five games, the Flyers have scored just four times at 5-on-5, and the five teams tied with them (Calgary, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Columbus) have all played four games or fewer.
Nick Cousins got the Senators on the board following the expiry of an Ottawa power play, deflecting a Tyler Kleven shot past Joseph Woll after beating Cam York to the front of the net. Despite the fortunate bounce, the Flyers actually out-shot the Senators 11-8 in the opening frame.
The Flyers repeated the feat in the second period, out-shooting their opponents 11-9 with Matvei Michkov tucking in a loose Trevor Zegras rebound on the power play to tie the game at 1-1.
In the third period, the Senators punched back with a 9-7 shots advantage, which is generous to the Flyers, who generated the bulk of their offense trying to tie the game in the dying few minutes.
Carter Yakemchuk scored the game-winning goal for the Senators in a dark twist of irony, as Michael Bunting, the player signed to give the Flyers a spark, took the penalty that gave the Senators their fifth power play opportunity of the night, and one they didn't squander, in his first game action of the season.
So, while the Flyers finally didn't get crushed by their opponents in the run of play, it shouldn't be celebrated as progress or a building block. That's the expectation every night for all 84 games.
That's how the Flyers got in this mess, with conversations about "compete" and complacency a week into the 2026-27 campaign.
Stats dump and line changes
Matvei Michkov is the only Flyers player with multiple goals this season, and now he's playing center on the power play, too. (Photo: Eric Hartline, Imagn Images)
I was a bit surprised to see David Jiricek move up to the second pairing next to York after his high-profile backbreaker against Tampa Bay on Monday night, but he handled the added responsibility, including time on PP1, very well.
Jiricek recorded two shots on goal and played 18:25 (third to only Travis Sanheim and Jamie Drysdale). According to Natural Stat Trick, the Flyers out-shot the Senators with Jiricek on the ice at 5-on-5 in terms of attempts, unblocked attempts, and shots on goal, though scoring chances were 6-5 in Ottawa's favor.
With York on the ice at 5-on-5, though, scoring chances were 10-3 in Ottawa's favor. The 25-year-old's uncharacteristically poor play at both ends of the ice has dragged down his defense partners early on this season.
Matvei Michkov took over as the de facto center on PP1, winning four of seven faceoffs (57.1%) in place of Trevor Zegras.
There was once a time in the not-so-distant past that the Flyers refused to have the two on the same power play, and now Michkov has wrested another job from Zegras just five games into the season.
Tyson Foerster has just two goals, his only two points, in his last 15 games, including the playoffs. He is a -8 in that span.
Porter Martone has been held off the scoresheet through his first five games this season, though it's worth noting he's averaging just 12:55 of ice time a game.
Comparatively, Martone averaged 17:02 in his nine regular season games with the Flyers at the end of last season, and 16:48 in the playoffs.
SPRINGFIELD, MO - AUGUST 30: Tre Richardson III #8 of the Springfield Cardinals high fives teammates prior to the game between the San Antonio Missions and the Springfield Cardinals at Hammons Field on Sunday, August 30, 2026 in Springfield, Missouri. (Photo by Kaylee Vaughan/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
VEB points will be awarded to contributors who can identify the prospect on the opening screen. Hint…one of the most surprising break-out performances of the 2026 season, especially in regards to power.
What was going on in the minor leagues?
If you haven’t heard, power numbers are up throughout the minor leagues. Most notably, the power numbers are REALLY up in the levels AA back down through Low-A. AAA? Not so much. Almost flat-earth at AAA. The AAA league the Redbirds play in has seen only a .3% change in HR rate.
Baseball America (behind a paywall) recently published on article on the very topic I’ve been monitoring for a bit. For those with BA subscriptions, you can read it here. If you don’t have a subscription, you can satisfy yourself with my high-level summary of their work (which as usual is very good – their work).
You can see from the data points above the MiLB scoring has hit a high point in 2026. The data is a little slim to determine if that ratchet up from 2024-2025 is extreme or if it just looks that way because those 2024 and 2025 years were down years. Regardless, scoring is up.
Sure enough, homerun rates follow a similar trajectory. Lots more, especially this year. Why? First, BA stripped out AAA runs and HRs and found that the AAA experience is not nearly as extreme as the other 4 MiLB levels. Suspicious? They naturally land on the different baseball being used as a likely culprit. Intuitive, but I’m not sure they convinced me of the leap from increased HR = increased runs = juiced MiLB baseball. I checked with some Cardinal folks and they too believe that while there may be something there, the jury is still out on what or how much.
Moving on, BA focused on actual batted ball data out of the Florida State League (FSL). Every team (except Daytona) has Hawkeye systems installed, so they get the proverbial Statcast data that is publicly available.
Authors Note: You guys have seen my prior articles on Cardinals and the Technology Revolution. Through my research for this article, I was able to confirm that the Cardinals now have Hawkeye installed at all affiliates except the Florida Complex League (if you’ve seen the backfield they play on, you’d understand why not there). Now that the FSL is done, some FCL guys will play at RDS and they will get some fine detail on those players.
Long story short, in looking at the FSL data, BA found that a lot of the unusual increase in homeruns fell into a group of batted balls I would consider mid-tier EV fly balls (95-105 mph) hit at an optimal trajectory, where the avg fly ball seems to travel about 5-10 feet farther this year, leading them to suspect the ball. This finding appears to account for about 50% of the increase in runs/HRs. More specifically, they found that mostly it was the pulled and opposite field fly balls that experienced the unusual HR increase, not so much balls hit to the deepest part. Stated succinctly, a fly ball pulled (or hit opp0) that travels 350 feet instead of 340 has a pretty high chance of changing from a deep fly to a wall-scraping HR. Unlike a ball hit to centerfield, where a 350 foot flyball looks an awful lot like a 340 foot fly ball and likely has the same result as last year. Good points.
That is my summary of BA’s fine work. If you want more detail, check it out in the link above.
I’ll add to this a little science. Two batted ball metrics that affect the balls flight are the Coefficient of Resistance (COR) and drag. Interestingly, one of the weird effects of drag is that some balls hit in that mid-tier EV mph range and hit at an optimal angle tend to generate a little extra lift at the end of their journey and have a tendency to float, so a not quite barreled fly ball may float a bit if it was hit at the optimal launch angle (think: between like 27 and 30 degrees). Not dissimilar to how an airplane wing generates optimal lift at the right attack angle – not too steep, not too shallow.
So the BA data may indeed be showing us a different ball, but it may also be showing us that the hitting instructional evolution around optimizing swing path is beginning to take hold at the lower minors and making the hitting experience down there more similar to the upper minors and MLB.
How does it affect evaluation of Cardinal prospects?
I spoke with Director of Hitting Dalton Hurd about this topic. They really evaluate players on their process, less so their results. Swing path, swing decisions, launch angle, etc., etc. are what they look at. In a sense, they value process over results. Not that you ignore results, but if the process is right, they expect good results. If one year the environment produces great (instead of good) results due to the ball or the weather or whatever, they can kind of wash that out by remaining focused on the process of hitting. Not quite said, but suggested, was the implication that better coaching, league wide, is likely contributing to better launch angles and higher EV.
For years, we’d look at stat lines of players in a place like Low-A (or previously High-A) Palm Beach, and we would have to remind ourselves that a .710 OPS by a 19-year-old really wasn’t that bad, because the run environment was harsh on hitters, particularly ones who hadn’t fully matured yet. We’d attenuate our evaluation due to the environment the player experienced. Now we look in 2026 and find that the run environment isn’t quite so harsh. Why? Well, the BA article says about 50% of the offensive increase is likely due to the baseball. But what about the fact that RDS fences were moved in after the 2024 season? Also, what about the overall reduction in players due to minor league contraction and reductions in the draft length?
I did do a wee little bit of research to see if Park Factors for a renovated RDS might be part of the equation. Pre-renovation, using 2023 numbers, run production in RDS is pretty much the same (RDS suppresses runs by about 10%) as it was in 2026. Interestingly, HR suppression improved quite a bit, from an abysmal 81 in 2023 to 94 (still below average) in 2026. Ball? Or park? Or hitters? Or all of the above?
I was reminded not to overlook that the minor leagues were compresses and the draft shorten. This could theoretically have the effects that: 1) the remaining group is by definition higher quality and you’d expect higher output and 2) don’t be shocked if you looked closely and found that some higher OPS, higher whiff guys are now coming up the system faster, instead of marinating in the Complex League longer. Higher OPS, higher whiff translate to higher EV and higher HR rates, which is what BA observed as the major eye catcher when looking at the data. Even if that player strikes out a ton. True outcomes and all…
We discussed a group of players who blazed through High-A Peoria at a time when the whole Midwest League was experiencing quite a jump in HR rates. This group will include some familiar names – Tai Peete, Won-Bin Cho, Rainel Rodriguez, Jack Gurevitch, Tre Richardson III. If you are a honk for “the MiLB ball is juiced”, you will have some trouble explaining how exactly the plethora of HRs hit by that group at Peoria seemed to follow them to Springfield and didn’t stay behind in Peoria to boost up the other players, as Peoria saw a drop in offense mid-season as those guys moved up. Notably, at the same time a weak Springfield offense saw quite a surge. Everyone I spoke with denied shipping pallets of juiced baseballs from Peoria to Springfield along with the players. Also, a juiced ball doesn’t explain how each of these phenoms struggled early after their promotion and then found the right adjustment to take off (again). It’s not like the AA league quit using a “juiced ball” for a couple of weeks to confound RainRod honks.
Hurd told me they really discourage players from trying to take advantage of environmental things (like a short porch of whatever) and just stick with the process. A good swing will produce good results. Good launch angle, good EV will produce good results over time. Trust the process, they say. He said in all five cases, each of those players had successfully made observable adjustments that explains their success. Not spoken, but by implication, this suggests a player seeing an increase in offense but is not advancing may be someone who isn’t really adjusting their approach but perhaps riding the wave that lifts everyone. I didn’t ask specifically, but one might think of Sammy Hernandez in this vein.
He did acknowledge that the ball could be having some effect, although he thought the jury is still out on how much. I gathered they somewhat ignore the unusual results because they are universal. If Cardinal hitters were NOT experiencing some extra oomph and everyone else was, they’d be more concerned about it. Also, they recognize there are so many uncontrollable factors involved in hitting and it could swing back the other way next year. So they focus on what they can control – the hitting process.
In the end, the story seems to be about trusting the hitting process, and that good process leads to good results (and advancement). And recognizing that much of hitting involves a lot of things the hitters can’t control like game time, temperature, humidity, pitch quality, the ball, etc.
A rabbit hole
One thing that came up that I haven’t yet had time to fully digest. Part of the hitting evolution involves where to contact the baseball relative to the plate. Since pulling the ball requires getting to the ball further out front (and going oppo allows for the ball to travel further), I think we’d have to look not only at whether pulled/opps hits are more likely to scrape over the wall, we’d need to know if more balls are being contacted well out front (close to 36” in front of the plate) and/or allowed to travel deeper in the zone (less than 30” for an opposite field direction).
Note: This little morsel is something I’ve been poking on since it seems to be something the Brewers have discovered that no other team has. The Brewers have a pretty strong tendency to allow the ball to travel and hit the ball oppo during most game situations. They essentially sacrifice power for OBP through scattering the ball to all fields and having increased contact, instead of selling out for pull side power. This approach defeats shifting, but also sags HR rates.
Fascinatingly, in high leverage situations, they revert more to pull side power. While their overall HR rate is very low by modern MLB standards, their close-and-late HR rate is average. Like they change hitting approaches mid-game. Interesting. It stands to reason that some of the data on MiLB runs is the opposite of this…most teams are selling out for launch angle with pull side power, and those slightly mis-hit, wall scraping HRs might well be the end result of that. This winter, I might try and dig into a data source that tells me how much MiLB hitters are trying to make contact well out in front of the plate. Getting pitch-by-pitch data on MiLB batters that would include contact point might be challenging, though. If only StL made that Hawkeye data available…
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski reacts after striking out San Diego's Luis Campusano during Game 1 of the NLDS on Oct. 3. (Kayla Wolf / Associated Press)
Tanner Scott stuck upside-down beers in Friedman’s shirt. Alex Freeland dumped beer into his mouth and all over his face. Eric Lauer coordinated a sneak attack, announcing that he was heading to the showers before reappearing from a side entrance.
Friedman never stopped grinning. But it almost looked like he had an extra glint in his eye when asked whether he’d rather take on the Milwaukee Brewers or San Diego Padres in the NLCS.
Later that night, the Brewers advanced, locking in an NLCS rematch that could certainly deliver chaos.
The Dodgers and Brewers are meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time in nine years. Last season, the Dodgers swept Milwaukee in the NLCS.
Usually before playing a big-market team like the Dodgers, Brewers manager Pat Murphy leans into the underdog narrative by saying he suspects the opponent can’t name many of the Brewers players. But by becoming perennial playoff contenders, and posting the best record in the majors over the past two seasons, the Brewers have given up whatever anonymity they may have had when they promoted Murphy a few years ago.
The cast of characters on both sides has remained relatively consistent since last October. But even after trading away top pitcher Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee is a more complete team than last season.
But losing talented players hasn’t stopped the Brewers from winning the last four NL Central titles. They keep saying goodbye to top players — including Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, closer Devin Williams and shortstop Willy Adames — then raise their win total.
The biggest difference-maker has been Jacob Misiorowski, who had the lowest ERA (1.80) in the majors this season and is the NL Cy Young favorite. As a rookie last year, the flame-thrower was relegated to the postseason bullpen until the NLCS. This year, he was the Brewers’ Game 1 starter in the NLDS against the Padres.
The Brewers have long hung their hat on playing sound baseball, from pitching and defense to baserunning. But the knock on them has been the lack of thump in their lineup.
First baseman Jake Bauers had a career season, leading the team in home runs (26), on-base percentage (.389) and on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.873). Jackson Chourio, who was hobbled by a hamstring injury in the last NLCS, hit a career-high 25 home runs and led the team in slugging percentage (.487). And though the Brewers likely won’t out-slug the Dodgers — they hit 50 fewer home runs during the season — they have a pesky roster that stole 90 more bases.
The Brewers also had a better regular-season record (103-59) than the Dodgers (100-62), so the series will begin in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Signs point to a more competitive series than last year. The Brewers even entered the postseason with the better World Series odds (18.5%) than the Dodgers (16.7%), according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings.
“The mistake that the outside perspective kind of gets sometimes is to underestimate certain teams,” said Kiké Hernández as the Dodgers celebrated their NLDS victory. “And we knew we had a tough task ahead of us. [The Braves are] a team that was playing really good baseball, had a lot of momentum, and they were throwing the ball really well. They had a really good bullpen, a lot of different kinds of arms, and, fortunately for us, they were a little bit short on starting pitching, so they had to tax their bullpen to a point where it paid off for us.”
The Dodgers ended the series before it returned to Los Angeles for an if-necessary Game 5. So they got to turn their attention to the Brewers a couple days early.
“I think the strength of our team is our rotation,” Friedman said. “And so even if we weren’t able to reset it, we still feel like it would be a strength of ours. But to be able to line it up the way we want to, certainly advantageous. To be able to have a few days off our feet and rest up for Sunday, also really helpful.”
