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Start your weekend right with some MLB best bets, based on trading prices available at Polymarket (which allows fans coast-to-coast to participate in baseball action).\

Our expert MLB picks for May 1 have found value in the Jays and Cubbies winning, along with a pitcher's duel taking place in Tampa.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TOR ML	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-127
Joe Osborne: SF/TB u7.5	+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

It might be scary backing a Patrick Corbin start, but the Toronto Blue Jays have already handled Simeon Woods Richardson this year, tagging him for five runs in just 12 outs. The familiarity factor leans toward the hitters in this spot.

Toronto’s lineup is getting healthier and can make up for Corbin, who has actually looked solid, allowing just four runs over his last three starts. If this game is decided late, the edge goes to the visitors — and the league’s best bullpen over the last seven days.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced this afternoon. His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8 hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA — checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.

With the Chicago Cubs on a 12-3 heater, while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Rays Under 7.5

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

Runs should be tough to come by tonight in Tampa with a lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup featuring two lineups that have struggled against southpaws. The San Francisco Giants have been especially bad, ranking 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has been sharp at home, while Robbie Ray is back in top form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in five of his six starts.

More ammo for an Under wager: The Giants' bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last 14 days.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Somerset Patriots 9, Portland Sea Dogs 6 (BOX)

Franklin Arias went four games without hitting a home run and I was starting to get concerned. That changed in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth on Thursday night, when Arias tied the Sea Dogs game at 6-6 on a two run bomb to center. 

My favorite rating on any FanGraphs page at this moment is Arias’ Game Power:

The 20 is for “present” Game Power, with 45 as “future”. This was Arias’ eighth home run of the season, in 20 games. I’d suggest that Fangraphs update that Present rating ASAP. 

Unfortunately, the Patriots (NYY) walked it off in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer by Coby Morales off of reliever Cooper Adams. Starter Patrick Halligan struck out six batters, allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 

On the hitting side, Arias and Nate Baez had two hits, and Brooks Brannon knocked in three runs. 

Worcester Red Sox 4, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 1) – BOX

The Woo Sox got solid pitching from starting pitcher Alec Gamboa, who struck out six over 5 ⅔ innings in game one on Thursday, beating the Red Wings (WAS). Jack Anderson, who may be needed again in Boston once his 15-day minors clock is up, gained his first save to close down the seven-inning affair. 

Matt Thaiss homered for Worcester, and Kristian Campbell was 1-for-2 with a walk, a run, and an RBI. 

Worcester Red Sox 7, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 2) – BOX

The Woo Sox completed the sweep in game two, thanks to home runs from Vinny Capra and Braiden Ward, accounting for the first two runs of the ballgame off of Red Wings starter Riley “The Great” Cornelio. Anthony Seigler knocked in two runs and was on base all four times in this one. 

It was more of a bullpen game for Worcester, with Devin Sweet, Angel Bastardo, and Wyatt Olds splitting the work. Bastardo picked up his second win, now throwing five shutout innings on the season. 

Hub City Spartanburgers 6, Greenville Drive 2 (BOX)

First round pick a year ago Kyson Witherspoon continued to struggle in his start on Thursday against Hub City (TEX). He walked five batters and hit another in 2 ⅔ innings of work, allowing four runs as his ERA jumped to 7.13 on the season. He struck out six batters but threw just 32 strikes on 66 pitches. 

The Drive had five hits on the day, with two of those coming from Justin Gonzales who was on base all five times he stepped to the plate, walking once, and being hit by two pitches. Yoeilin Cespedes continued his heater with two more hits, as well. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Wilson Warbirds 5 (BOX)

Salem trailed the Warbirds (MIL) 5 to 1 after six innings before the game flipped in a hurry. Two home runs from Starlyn Nunez, another from Ty Hodge, and a fourth from Luke Heyman accounted for nine unanswered runs to close the game. Nunez, Heyman, and Hodge all had three RBI on the day. Here’s the second of two bombs from Nunez:

All three runs that starter Madinson Frias allowed were unearned, and Ethan Walker went 5 ⅓ strong innings in relief to get the win, striking out nine. 

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 10-3 since we last checked in. No team did better; the Yankees and Cubs matched this pace from April 16 through the end of the month. That’s a 125-win pace over a full season, which is absurd… but that’s what the Braves managed. The division lead increased from three games over the Marlins to 6.5 games (still over the Marlins).

Though the Braves were very successful, they didn’t exactly blow everyone out of the water on paper. Over this 13-game stretch, they finished tenth in MLB in position player value, including ninth in hitting value and inputs, eighth in defensive value, and 19th in pitching value. The defense remained a key aspect of their run prevention, as their pitching line in this span was 86/106/102 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Basically, they didn’t pitch that well, and they actually got a bit stung by HR/FB these two-ish weeks, but the run prevention ended up being on point anyway.

Going game-by-game and looking at pre-game odds, the Braves “should have” gone something like 7-6. They obviously overperformed that by a ton. Their most incredible win was the Matt Olson walkoff-aided victory in a JR Ritchie-Tarik Skubal matchup. They only had three losses, but they were actually pre-game favored in two of them, including the 11-4 walloping they suffered in Washington that snapped a six-game winning streak. Still, they’ve largely been streaking positively — the team now has four different win streaks of three or more games, while it’s had just one period where it lost consecutive games at all (a three-game losing streak at one point).

Over this two-week span, the Braves raised their estimated win total to 93, up by about three wins. Their playoff odds gained ten percentage points and now sit around 95 percent. Only the Cubs, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, and Yankees added more of the former, while only the Yankees, Cubs, Reds, and Athletics added more of the latter.

How are the Braves doing for the season?

Well, they now have MLB’s best record at 22-10. They’re up two in the win column over the next-closest contender, and one in the loss column. They now project to have baseball’s second-best record, have the second-highest odds of winning their division, and the third-highest odds of making the playoffs and winning the championship. Things are going well, basically. It hasn’t been a particularly tough schedule yet, but the Braves are still 22-10 when a game-by-game expectation would be 18-14, so they’re still doing better than probably anyone expected. They have the second-best expected record by both run differential and BaseRuns — and unlike earlier in the month, they’re no longer substantially underplaying both, now just -1 relative to run differential and even with their expected BaseRuns record.

They’re third in position player value and 12th in pitching value; their WAR-wins total through 32 games is 19, so that’s at least one sense in which they’re outplaying their production. But as you’ve borne witness to, this isn’t a lucky team rocketing to the top of the standings, but a team that’s producing and getting largely-commensurate rewards, with a bit of luck thrown in to compensate for the past two years of misfortune and/or misery. In terms of overall rankings:

• The Braves are fourth in both wRC+ and xwOBA, and eighth in defensive value. The defense slipped a bit, the hitting didn’t.
• They’re 12th in pitching value, but second in ERA- (barely, at that), while being 15th in xFIP-. As noted above, the pitching was notably worse later in April, and, at least right now, this is a team that is going to rely on its position players to both hit and catch the ball.

How are the hitters doing?

I’m continuing the irresponsibility of the grayshaded, per-600 PA column. Hitter-wise, the second half of April was driven by Michael Harris II’s insane, beyond-video-game-numbers line, along with legitimately good performance from Ozzie Albies (along with overperforming said performance by an insane amount), along with Olson and Drake Baldwin. No one else really helped all that much. The struggles of Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski were actively detrimental to the cause.

For the season as a whole, it’s that same quartet driving the proverbial bus, though Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith continue to maintain good lines largely based on what they did earlier in April. Matt Olson has played like an MVP from basically MVP-on; in addition to his actual production, he was fourth in MLB in WPA in April’s second half, and is fourth again for the month as a whole. The timing of Olson’s contributions might overshadow Drake Baldwin’s similar production for some, but not for us, right? That said, Olson is pretty clearly the Braves’ MVP for April — he had a huge game nearly half the time, and if the season ended today, he might very well be the NL MVP, as his 1.7 fWAR is the league’s highest (and fourth in MLB, with two other guys just fractions ahead of him and behind Yordan Alvarez’ 2.2).

The following chart is just for the second half of April. It was a month of justice in this regard. Harris’ insane two weeks made this chart stupid. More broadly — do you find this chart useful? I won’t include it if it doesn’t help relative to the table above.

Here’s the same chart, but for the month as a whole.

The only thing I’ll add to this is that Riley struggling is kinda brutal in and of itself, but when you combine that with his uncanny ability to draw the WPA vortex upon himself, well… not much has gone wrong for the Braves, but that definitely has. Mauricio Dubon is also having a WPA vortex-y month, where he’s come up what feels like an inordinate amount in key spots. He was getting lucky with bloops and such earlier, but his WPA has taken a beating over the last few weeks as they haven’t fallen in those same big spots.

How are the pitchers doing?

The pitching situation continues to be fluid, so sample sizes wreak havoc on the ability to say much of use here every two weeks.

Bryce Elder’s topline looks great because he’s not getting killed by HR/FB. That said, this was not a great two weeks of actual pitching for him, and unless you think he’s suddenly immune to getting blasted into a higher HR/FB again, you should prepare for his numbers to take a tumble. Chris Sale had a much more Sale-like two weeks compared to early April. Grant Holmes did not have a fun time in late April. He probably needs to improve fairly quickly in May before the Braves go in a different direction in the rotation and he fixes the team’s “we have no one we like to pitch longer-stint middle relief” issue that Didier Fuentes has been conscripted into managing for some reason.

I’m loathe to talk about even smaller-sample performances among relievers, but for April as a whole…

Reynaldo Lopez was removed from the rotation after not pitching well. We’ll see what he does with a different role. Jose Suarez is an enigma with a great FIP-, an okay xFIP-, and a horrid WPA. This will probably work itself out, by which I mean, “he will be removed from the roster.” I can see why the Braves were so interested in keeping him around, but I am guessing their patience will run out before he manages to get the consistency to not blow up the game with a spate of walks each time out, even if he’s striking out the side while doing so. Dylan Lee is f’n awesome and is barely outside the top five in reliever fWAR right now. I don’t know if this is in the cards, but with how much the Braves like to spend on relievers, maybe they could give him a modest extension rather than just dumping the same resources into someone else in a later offseason. Tyler Kinley continues to pitch in a weird way that warrants its own post, but it hasn’t hurt the team so far. He’s another thing that could have gone terribly and really ruined this excellent month for the team, but things have worked out for the best so far. Robert Suarez has not been an expensive reliever contract that’s blown up in their faces — he’s basically done what they were hoping for when giving him all that moola. And then there’s Aaron Bummer, who is really delivering on “May you get what you wish for” this year. He’s being used in high leverage! Unfortunately, he’s a complete mess in the early going. Maybe he’s just aged out of effectiveness. Maybe it’s related to him missing time with arm issues last year. Either way, it’s a cruel twist of fate.

See you in two weeks! Again, if you have stuff you do want to see in these, or stuff you don’t, let me know and I’ll think about it.

Another week, another Baseball America staff draft to cover. Why not? I love the draft, probably because it was the only chance for hope for much of the Al Avila years; even now, with the Detroit Tigers in first place, I can’t shake the habit. So here we are yet again.

A ‘Staff Draft’ is like a mock draft, but without any real information connecting specific players to specific teams, the analysts and writers at Baseball America just guess based on what organizations have tended to do in recent drafts, and who they like that fits the bill. For the Tigers, that typically means investing early draft picks in high schoolers up the middle, underscouted college pitchers, and maybe an additional underslot college option to balance the books. Look at 2023, when the Tigers selected Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Max Anderson, and Jaden Hamm with their first four picks. Or 2024, when they went Bryce Rainer, Owen Hall, Ethan Schiefelbein, and… well, you get the picture. If you’re an athletic up the middle defender or a raw pitcher to build up, look for Detroit to call your name.

With this most recent staff draft, BA covered Detroit’s first 3 picks: 22, 61, and 69. Their first and second picks are standard, while that third one comes in Competitive Balance Round B for being a smaller market team. For the whole draft, they have $9,165,100 in bonus pool money to spend and can exceed that total by 5% without any penalties besides a small financial tax. In addition, the Tigers will not receive any extra picks for Qualifying Offer compensation, so their bonus pool is relatively low. With those out of the way, let’s move onto the real selections.

22. Coleman Borthwick, HS RHP

Firstly, the staff mentioned Coleman Borthwick, an oversized pitcher out of South Walton High School in Florida’s panhandle. Borthwick is a bit of a throwback pick as a massive, hard-throwing righty listed at 6’5, 255 lbs; he certainly would fit right into a typical Dave Dombrowski draft. Beyond the measurables, Borthwick is pretty much what you’d expect. He throws up to 98 on his fastball, has a sharp slider he can usually locate on the corner, and generally bullies high schoolers in the zone. Right now, he’s repeating his delivery enough to track as a starter, but he would need to develop a changeup to really pop. Good thing the Tigers are typically good at finding some sort of changeup; speculatively, I’d assume the 6’5 guy would have hands big enough to create a solid splitter.

Borthwick has drawn some buzz for his offensive skills, too – he’s a big, strong power hitting corner guy – but his pitching seems to have taken off in 2026. Reports indicate teams are much more attracted to his arm than his bat. As with any 18 year old pick, there’s a lot of work to be done, but the goal would be to get him away from his Auburn commitment and onto a pro mound full time. The big frame, high velocity, and solid slider make for a strong foundation to build up from.

Wes Mendes, FSU LHP

Next we have Wes Mendes, a lefty from Florida State University. Mendes is a third year pitcher, having previously transferred from Ole Miss’ bullpen to FSU’s rotation for 2025 and 2026. Mendes is a lefty who sits around 91 with an uphill fastball that plays up in the zone and a plus changeup in the high 70s. His initial attempt at starting went very poorly as he built up to a full time workload, but this year he has posted a 2.43 ERA in a very hitter-friendly college league.

The continued positive development – from bullpen to bad starter to good starter – in only three years is a big arrow up for a lot of organizations. Seeing the aptitude for improvement early can often be a sign of further improvements or adaptations later down the road. FSU is in the ACC too, so this isn’t a product of jumping to a small school with poor competition, either; he’s facing real college hitters as the Friday-night starter for a D1 program. Whatever team grabs Mendes will be banking on three simple things: getting the fastball from the low to mid 90s, developing a breaking ball, and getting him ready for 150+ innings.

Luke Williams, HS SS/CF

Finally we have my favorite of the three names mentioned, Luke Williams. Williams is a hyper-athletic HS SS/CF from Pennsylvania. This sounds highly Tiger-ish. BA specifically mentions his 70-grade speed and 70-grade throwing arm as indicators he’ll be fine at either CF or SS, but doesn’t say much about his right handed stick. He’s listed at a fairly typical 6’0, 180 lbs, and likely has a bit of room to add some strength but nothing crazy. He reportedly has plus bat speed but missed time in 2025 with a serious ankle injury, so scouts have had a fairly limited timeframe to check out the hit tool. That’s especially notable because Pennsylvania isn’t known as a baseball hotspot and there’s no indication he played for any of the international teams that put someone like McGonigle on the map.

All that being said, when you get into the 60s of any draft, this is the type of bat I think you should be targeting. You’ve got a plus or double plus defender up the middle with strong hands, a quick bat, and room to grow into power. Unless he shows terrible plate discipline or no feel for the barrel when you see him in person, this feels like a risk worth taking. The Tigers are doing pretty well developing this type of player these days. Nobody mentions that in their April scouting reports, so for now I’m inclined to guess he’s about average for the level there and doesn’t stand out in either direction. That’s enough to start from.

If you’re reading this, you know as well as I do it’s April. Mock drafts the day before the draft get information wrong all the time, so don’t take anything written this early as gospel. Players will pop or bust, teams will do in-person negotiations, money will come into play, all that. For now, it’s better to view these names as representative of the options the team might be considering. Or might not. It’s April, after all.

The New York Mets (10-21) travel across the continent to face the Los Angeles Angels (12-20) for the start of (another) western swing. At this very moment, the Mets are having one of the three worst starts to a season in franchise history, being even more inept at baseball than the famously inept 1962 Mets, the owners (until very recently) of the worst record in baseball history. The big difference between 1962 and 2026, vibes wise, is that the ‘62 Mets weren’t expected to do much as an expansion club, and had a ‘lovable losers’ vibe that people accepted and embraced. The 2026 Mets are not that; this team was supposed to be a playoff contender. This fanbase was told not to worry as cornerstone players were sent elsewhere or spurned by lack of a offer. This team was supposed to be the first true vision of a still new front office.

Well, that’s not what we got. What we have is a collection of players that look less like a baseball team and more like a quartet of toddlers standing on each other’s shoulders trying to pass off as a baseball player. Whatever can be going wrong seems to be.

Before I go any father, I want to acknowledge that things feel pretty terrible right now, and so that makes even the slightest issue seem magnified to epic proportions. For instance, the same crowd that was laughing at the signing of Carl Edwards Jr. in the offseason was lamenting his being designated for assignment yesterday. If the key to this season’s success was Carl Edwards Jr., then we’ve all been guilty of atrocious miscalculations.

But there are real issues at play here for this team. While Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes have been quite good and Freddy Peralta more or less pitching to his career norms, the other two spots in the rotation have been atrocious. With Kodai Senga on the Injured List and David Peterson having a truly dreadful start in his first start in weeks, the Mets need to figure out the band end of their rotation. Help is on the way in the form of Christian Scott, who will start the first game of the series, but his first outing of the season saw him walk five batters in one and a third innings. Scott is better than that, and has been quite good in Triple-A this season, so perhaps he will stabilize one of those open spots.

But then there’s the bullpen. Aside from Brooks Raely, Huascar Brazobán, and Tobias Myers, everyone has been a mess. Sean Manaea and Craig Kimbrel are shells of their former selves, and both Luke Weaver and Devin Williams have looked shaky at best since coming over from the Yankees. Austin Warren has been very good in limited time, and hopefully he can stick with the club this time.

But the biggest issue remains the offense. It’s nice that MJ Melendez had a big day on Thursday, but that can’t be the strategy going forward. Players like Bo Bichette and Francisco Alvarez need to be consistently driving the ball, and that simply hasn’t happened yet. Brett Baty and/or Mark Vientos need to start producing on either side of the ball. Without Lindor, without Robert, and without Polanco, the lineup is thin already, but when everyone not named Soto is struggling, it is decimated.

The only good news for the Mets this weekend is that the Angels are a bad ball club. Losers of six straight and ten of their last 11, the Angels continue to be an even more extreme ‘little brother’ team to the Dodgers than the Mets are to the Yankees or White Sox to the Cubs. The Mets are also missing José Soriano, their best pitcher, and so that is a minor blessing as well.

For the Mets fans, this is also an opportunity to watch Mike Trout, undeniably one of the best players of his generation, and one whose talents have been wasted on a less than spotlighted team.

Friday, May 1: Christian Scott vs. Walbert Ureña, 9:38pm on PIX11

Scott (2026): 1.1 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 6.75 ERA, 15.13 FIP, 169 ERA-

Scott’s first 2026 Mets start was ugly: he faced ten batters and walked five of them. But there are reasons to see that as an isolated incident, the primary one being that it was his first start after Tommy John surgery on a big league mound. But in Triple-A, his strikeouts are there and his walk rate is nice and low. Without the first start nerves, far away from home, perhaps Scott will be able to settle in more tonight.

Ureña (2026): 11.1 IP, 13 K, 10 BB, 1 HR, 4.76 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 111 ERA-

It is rare that you see a pitcher give up six unearned runs, let alone in one inning, but that is exactly what Ureña did against the Astros in late March. Since then, he’s started two games and given up six earned runs total across the two, including a three and two-thirds innings start against the Royals where he walked five and gave up six hits.

Saturday, May 2: Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers, 9:38pm on SNY

McLean (2026): 35.1 IP, 45 K, 10 BB,  2 HR, 2.55 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 64 ERA-

Things are progressing nicely for McLean, even if the results have been a little more of a mixed bag than the Mets would like. Part of that is lack of run support; aside from the one start they won, the Mets have been outscored 21-9, and only nine of those runs were earned against McLean. But he’s doing the things he’s supposed to be doing as a young starter, and he hasn’t shown any regression or real issues just yet.

Detmers (2026): 33.2 IP, 36 K, 9 BB, 3 HR, 4.26 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 100 ERA-

Detmers had two great starts against the Mariners on April 3 where he tossed six and two-thirds scoreless innings and against Yankees on April 14 where he went seven innings, striking out nine and giving up just one run. Aside from that, it’s been a struggle for Detmers, who has given up at least three earned runs in every other start.

Sunday, May 3: Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz, 4:07pm on SNY

Holmes (2026): 36.0 IP, 25 K, 11 BB,  3 HR, 1.75 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 44 ERA-

Raise your hand if you thought Clay Holmes would be the most effective Mets’ starter and bWAR leader through April? If any of you have your hands up, you’re liars. But Holmes has been excellent so far this season, even if he’s never quite the most exciting or dominant pitcher to watch work.

Kochanowicz (2026): 35.0 IP, 24 K,  18 BB, 1 HR, 3.09 ERA, 3.76 FIP,  72 ERA-

The second best starter on the club, Jack Kochanowicz is walking too many folks but otherwise looking good for the Halos. After a rough first start, he’s only allowed more than two earned runs once, and has been consistently working into the sixth and seventh innings.

For much of his professional career, Cade Cavalli was somewhat of a myth to Nationals fans. A 2020 1st round pick with loads of upside, blazing his way through the minor leagues with electrifying stuff. He got a taste of the bigs in 2022, but an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training kept him out of the spotlight and the field for the following 2+ seasons.

He fought his way back to Washington at the back end of 2025, posting decent statistics, but looking far from the prospect he once was. Many labeled him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026, but he struggled with putting hitters away in his first few outings.

However, at long last, Nats fans’ once-promised frontline starter may be knocking on the door.

Definite conclusions can’t be fully drawn from a 2-game sample, but Cavalli seems to have unlocked something. In appearances against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, the righty threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowed just 4 total runs, and struck out 10 hitters in back-to-back starts, something that has only been done by 4 other arms in Nationals’ history.

The stuff is ticking up, and Cavalli has simply looked in complete control of the game for much of the time. His strikeout rate has climbed from 18% in 2025 to to 27% in 2026, his HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has been lowered from .259 to .246.

Digging even deeper, his 3.82 ERA, which already registers as a decent mark, may also be discrediting just how effective Cavalli has become. To say that he’s gotten unlucky so far would be an understatement. His FIP is all the way down to a 2.82, an entire run below his ERA, and his BABIP has climbed to over .400, a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon.

Most of the issues that plagued the beginning of his 2026 campaign stemmed from not being able to miss bats and put away hitters. In the same fashion as just about every other one of his metrics, that has changed for the better, including during his latest start against the Mets, where he generated 18 whiffs, finishing 2nd among MLB starting pitchers in that regard on April 29th.

His 5-pitch mix has found a blend of timing, movement, and command that has given opposing lineups major struggles recently. If the underlying data doesn’t do it for you, just turn on his next start, because he certainly passes the eye test. Putting it bluntly, Cavalli looks like the future of the Nationals’ rotation.

With CJ Abrams and James Wood playing like the true backbone of their offense for the foreseeable future, it’s about time that the pitching staff produced a star of their own. For all intents and purposes, Nats fans, Cade Cavalli is your guy, and it’s time to embrace him.

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Although the New York Yankees couldn’t sweep the Houston Astros on the road, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball.

With the Baltimore Orioles entering tonight's matchup facing plenty of pitching questions, we don’t expect that to change. 

Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-175)

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles, sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him.

The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball.

That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month.

I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

COVERS INTEL: Cade Povich's chase percentage grades in the 89th percentile, but the Yankees swing out of the zone just 25% of the time.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Will Warren continues to overachieve, sporting an expected ERA that’s a full run higher than his actual one, with his expected FIP telling the same story.

While I expect the Yankees to prevail, Warren will run into issues with his bottom-30th percentile hard-hit rate, and the Orioles should do their part to help plate a couple of runs in the Bronx tonight.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +150 | Yankees -175
• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Orioles vs Yankees trend

New York has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info

Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries

Orioles vs Yankees weather

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The surging Seattle Mariners will be looking to keep it rolling tonight as they welcome the Kansas City Royals to T-Mobile Park.

Seattle has won two straight, and my Royals vs. Mariners predictions are eyeing Bryan Woo to set the tone for another victory.

Read more for my MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Royals vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (-147)

The Seattle Mariners just took two out of three from the Minnesota Twins, winning back-to-back games to close out the series. While Bryan Woo is coming off a difficult start where he allowed seven earned runs, the righty has been dominant at home.

Across two outings in Seattle, Woo sports a 2.77 ERA, holding opponents to a .178 average. He owns a 3.86 ERA overall, and he’s coming up against a Kansas City Royals team that has been underwhelming offensively, averaging just 4.1 runs per game.

On the other side, Cole Ragans allowed seven earned runs in his last road start, and the lefty owns a 5.00 ERA overall. His road ERA balloons to 8.40, despite being dominant at home with an ERA under one. He’s held the M’s to a .194 average, but it’s a very small sample size.

COVERS INTEL: Cole Ragans has a 6.06 FIP so far, the worst of his big league career.

Royals vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7 runs (-110)

While both of these teams rank 20th or worse in runs scored, Seattle, in particular, is producing more lately, scoring 12 runs across this two-game winning streak. Two of the last three meetings have also cashed the Over, and the M’s score more at home, averaging 4.67 runs.

The matchup clearly plays in their favor, too. Ragans has struggled immensely to find any consistency on the road, and Seattle is in a rhythm. Although Woo is wonderful at home, he has been a bit shaky lately, so I could see KC tagging him for a couple of runs as well.

Also, the Royals’ bullpen owns an atrocious 5.33 ERA. Seattle will win, and they will do the majority of the scoring.

Royals vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Kansas City +124 | Seattle -137
• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-167) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+114) | Under 7.5 (-137)

Royals vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.

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It's a busy Friday in Major League Baseball with 15 games on tap, and a litany of MLB player props to choose from.

We'll kick things off in the Mile High city, where Ozzie Albies looks to stay red-hot against a pitcher he's lit up regularly.

Read below for the rest of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Ozzie Albies	3+ total bases	+140
Jacob Misiorowksi	7+ strikeouts	-136
Andy Pages	1+ doubles	+250

Ozzie Albies 3+ total bases (+140)

Ozzie Albies has been tearing it up for the MLB-best Braves, with hits in 12 straight games, including picking up at least three total bases in five of his last seven games.

He has absolutely owned Rockies starter Jose Quintana, going 9-for-19. That's a .474 average, and a slugging percentage of 1.053, as he's homered off him three times, adding two doubles and four RBI.

There's not a better situation for him to keep raking.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, Rockies.TV

Jacob Misiorowksi 7+ strikeouts (-136)

You can chase some better juice, like +128 odds for 8+ strikeouts, but Jacob Misiorowski is facing the Nationals for the first time in his career, and that's always a factor to consider.

This still feels like a decent number and odds, considering the Brewers' righty has recorded at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts on the season.

Washington isn't exactly looking for great pitches. As a team, they're tied for 19th in team strikeouts per game at 8.72.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Nationals.TV

Andy Pages 1+ doubles (+250)

Andy Pages continues to hit well after a forgettable postseason run, 12th in the majors with a .321 average, as the Dodgers open a set with St. Louis on Friday.

He has hits in five of his last six games, including three games with at least a double. Pages has picked up at least a hit in two straight vs. the Cards, including a two-double game.

It's a nice time to take a flier on a double, especially with those nice +250 odds.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, Cardinals.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

April offered an early snapshot of who the Royals are – for better and worse. Mostly worse. The Royals ended the month tied for the fourth-worst record in baseball. While they’re not an expensive flaming dumpster fire like the Mets, Phillies, or Red Sox, the start is a huge disappointment for a team that had designs on making a run to the post-season.

How did the Royals get here? Here are the numbers that defined their April.

73

That was the Royals wRC+ with runners in scoring position (RISP), dead last in baseball. Overall, they hit .221/.316/.306 and had a 43.9 percent flyball rate, second-highest out of any team with RISP. Just 12.8 percent of Royals baserunners end up scoring, the sixth-lowest total in baseball. The bulk of the issues have come from the middle of the lineup, with expected run producers Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino among the worst in baseball in clutch situations. Both players had over 100 RBI last year, but Salvy is hitting just .135 with RISP this year, while Vinnie is hitting just .097.

This isn’t a new problem either, the Royals struggled to hit with runners on in the first half of last year. They improved significantly in the second half, but another slow start has fans wondering if the team needs to change their approach or even make a change in the hitting coach department.

13

Royals baserunners have made 13 Outs on the Bases so far this season, fourth-most in baseball. They’ve also been picked off six times, one shy of the league lead. Their success rate on steals is just 70 percent, the sixth-worst in baseball. Overall they’re in the middle of the league in Baserunning Runs, so I won’t go as far as to say they’re a terrible baserunning club. They have some speed, and they like to be aggressive, and when a team is struggling, you can understand trying to make something happen with your legs.

But for a team that struggles to score runs, they can ill-afford to give up baserunners. You can excuse some aggressiveness, but some of the gaffes seem to be the result of poor focus or preparation.

2.6

The Royals moved in the fences at the K this year to make it a more neutral park, and the team has responded by being a solid offensive team at home. They’re hitting .275/.364/.445 in the friendly confines of the K, for a 121 wRC+ that ranks as the fifth-best in baseball, and scoring a healthy 5.4 runs per game.

Road games have been an entirely different matter. The Royals are averaging just 2.6 runs-per-game on road trips, by far the worst in baseball. Salvy is hitting .161 on road trips. Isaac Collins must really miss Kansas City BBQ – he’s 1-for-32 on the road with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

It’s not like the Royals aren’t hitting home runs on the road. Instead, their poor hitting is due to hitting just .202 on the road, the worst in baseball. Maybe John Sherman is coddling them?

5.33

The Royals were the only team in baseball last year that did not lose a game they led going into the ninth inning. That streak ended in the second game of this year when closer Carlos Estévez coughed six runs in the ninth in a loss to the Braves. He was immediately shelved to investigate his velocity drop, and the bullpen has struggled ever since. The once-dominant Lucas Erceg has been inconsistent, and the back of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess. Adding injury to insult, the pitching depth has begun to be deplted with Stephen Kolek and Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the Injured List and Ryan Bergert out for the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Daniel Lynch IV has been a bright spot, and Nick Mears and Matt Strahm have looked good at times, so there is hope the bullpen can find its footing. But the team is 1-5 in one-run games so far, and the offense does not leave the bullpen much room for error.

3.5

Despite stumbling to a poor start, the Royals end the month just 3.5 games back of first place in a mediocre division. No team in the AL Central has a winning record. After a series in Seattle this weekend, the Royals will have a stretch of ten consecutive games against divisional foes, and a hot stretch could get them right back in the mix. Baseball is a marathon and there is still plenty of season left to be played. The Royals have been a very flawed team, but they still have one of the best players in baseball and some talented players that can turn things around. But they’ll need their May numbers to bloom far more than their April showers.