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Somewhere between two emergency call-ups to Triple-A, a disaster day in Albuquerque, and a six-week stint on the injured list, Stu Flesland III put together one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the Colorado Rockies’ minor league system.

The 25-year-old left-hander enters the season’s final stretch with a 3.03 ERA across three levels, a 6-2 record, and an Eastern League Pitcher of the Week award to show for his second half at Double-A Hartford. None of that was the expectation. Flesland was Colorado’s 11th-round pick in 2023 out of Washington, for a modest $150,000 signing bonus — the profile of organizational pitching depth, not a prospect anyone circled for a breakout. Three years later, he’s forcing the issue.

The scenic route to Hartford

Flesland’s 2026 didn’t move in a straight line. He opened the year back at High-A Spokane, the level where he’d logged a full season in 2025, and was mostly excellent in a short look — a 3.63 ERA over 17.1 innings, with a career-high strikeout rate (9.87 K/9) but also his highest walk rate in that stretch (3.63 BB/9). From there, he was Colorado’s answer when Triple-A Albuquerque came up short on arms — summoned twice in the span of about three weeks, making one appearance both times. He went back to Spokane after the first call-up. The second, on May 15, was a disaster on its own — one inning, nine runs, four walks — and this time, rather than sending him back to Spokane again, the Rockies reassigned him straight to Hartford.

He didn’t miss a beat there: 3.1 innings, one run, in his Double-A debut on May 19, then five more relief outings into mid-June, working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (a 5.40 ERA over 11.2 innings in June, with a save mixed in). He then missed time after a June 16 outing. Flesland came back on July 3 as a starter and hasn’t left the rotation since: a 1.53 ERA in July, a 1.29 ERA in August, and a combined 61 strikeouts against 24 walks in 73.2 Double-A innings on the year.

What the numbers say — and what they don’t

The headline ERA is real, but it’s not the whole story, and it’s worth separating what’s earned and what’s been aided by good fortune.

The gain that looks sustainable isn’t the strikeout-to-walk profile — his walk rate is actually up from a year ago, from 6.5% at High-A in 2025 to 8.4% at Double-A this year (basically back to his 2024 level, and his K-BB (13.0% is a step down from last year’s 15.0%. What has genuinely changed is the shape of the contact he’s allowing: his ground-ball rate is a career high of 51.1%, real growth from the 45-46% he ran in each of the previous two full seasons. That’s a different pitcher than the one who finished 2025 in the Northwest League — more of a ground-ball arm, less of a swing-and-miss one — even if it’s not a cleaner strikeout-to-walk pitcher.

The gains that need a caveat: His 1.95 ERA at Hartford is dramatically better than his FIP (3.84) or xFIP (4.44) at the same level — the résumé of a pitcher who’s been helped by a .242 BABIP and an 80.6% strand rate, both of which are well outside what most pitchers sustain over a full season. An ERA- of 41 next to an xFIP of -94 is about as wide a gap as exists in this system, and it’s the single number most likely to normalize as time goes on.

The stuff itself is hard to fully evaluate from the data available: Statcast pitch-tracking only exists from his brief Triple-A cameo — 86 total pitches — showing a four-pitch mix of four-seam (33.7%, 91.0 mph), sinker (8.1%, 91.4 mph), slider (39.5%, 78.9 mph), and changeup (18.6%, 86.1 mph), with a slider-heavy approach.

It’s too small of a sample size to treat as a full scouting report on his repertoire, but the shape — a below-average-velocity fastball paired with a slider he throws almost 40% of the time — is at least consistent with a pitcher who misses more bats than his fastball alone would suggest.

The role question

The full-season starter/reliever split tells its own story about where Colorado sees him right now, or at least where he’s pitched best: as a starter in 2026, Flesland has a 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across 55.1 innings; in relief, a 4.99 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 39.2 innings. Some of that is the sample of a rough Triple-A look, but the gap is large enough, and the second-half rotation results strong enough, that the case for stretching him out as a starter or long reliever looks better than the case for a middle-bullpen arm future — at least based on what he’s shown since Hartford put him in the rotation in July.

At 25, Flesland doesn’t have the prospect pedigree that usually accompanies this kind of run — an 11th-round college arm three years off the draft is not a name most outside the organization are tracking. But a full-season strikeout-to-walk rate north of 12%, a career-high ground-ball rate, and back-to-back sub-2.00 ERA months are the kind of stretch that at least earns a longer look.

Weekly Pebble Report: August 25th-31st

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (3-3, 65-67 Overall)

Albuquerque split six at Round Rock (Texas Rangers) in a series between clubs that arrived with similar records. The Isotopes won three in a row in the middle — including an 11-3 game Thursday in which they trailed 3-1 through seven innings and then scored five in the eighth and five in the ninth — and reached exactly .500 at 65-65 before dropping the last two. Vimael Machín drove in a team-high seven runs, Sterlin Thompson (PuRP No. 16) drew nine walks, and Tyler Freeman homered. Six different Albuquerque pitchers finished the series without allowing an earned run.

⬆️ Stock Up:Condon rediscovers his swing

Charlie Condon (PuRP No. 2) hit .350 across all six games, going 7-for-20 with two doubles, four RBIs, and a club-leading six runs scored. The more telling number is the strikeouts: three in 20 at-bats. He reached base 12 times in all, adding four walks and a hit-by-pitch. It was the sort of week the organization has been waiting for since his cold stretch began.

⬇️ Stock Down: Cande gets hit hard

Jarrod Cande gave up nine hits and seven runs while recording eight outs across two appearances. The second was the damaging one: he entered Sunday’s finale and allowed five hits in two-thirds of an inning, including a three-run homer that turned a 4-1 deficit into a rout. He also walked three in Tuesday’s opener, a game Albuquerque lost on a walk-off. In a series where the bullpen was otherwise excellent, Cande’s two outings accounted for a disproportionate share of the damage.

Upcoming

The Isotopes return to Albuquerque for six games against the Tacoma Rainers (Seattle Mariners)

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (4-2, 61-64 Overall)

Hartford won four of six at New Hampshire (Toronto Blue Jays). The running game was the defining feature — Hartford stole 20 bases across the series, seven of them in Sunday’s finale alone — and the pitching was steady enough that only two starters allowed more than two earned runs. Dyan Jorge drove in six, and Roynier Hernandez, in his first week with the club, added five.

⬆️ Stock Up:Humphrey won’t stop hitting

Jacob Humphrey went 11-for-21 (.524) with multi-hit games in four of his five starts, adding a double, three stolen bases, and three runs scored. Two weeks into his time at Double-A, he is hitting .438 overall. The one caveat is that the production came almost entirely at the top of the order rather than driving runs in — he finished with two RBIs — but as a table-setter he has been close to unmissable, reaching base 14 times in five games.

⬇️ Stock Down: Hill Goes Quiet Against a Familiar Foe

GJ Hill hit .125 across five games, managing two hits in 16 at-bats with no RBI and six strikeouts. What makes it striking is the opponent: Hill hit .412 with two home runs and seven RBIs against these same Fisher Cats a month ago, a performance that earned him a spot in this column. He drew four walks, but a middle-of-the-order bat going a full series without driving in a run is a problem for a club that scored more than six runs only twice.

Upcoming

The Yard Goats will host the Reading Fightin’ Phils (Philadelphia Phillies) for a six-game series.

High-A: Spokane Indians (2-4, 56-69 Overall)

Spokane dropped four of six at Vancouver (Toronto Blue Jays), and one of the losses will sting for a while: a 15-14 defeat in 10 innings Friday in which the Indians trailed 8-0 after two innings, led 14-13 in the tenth, and lost on a balk with two outs. The two clubs combined for 29 runs and 33 hits. Tommy Hopfe hit .391 across all six games, Alan Espinal added three doubles, and Bryson Van Sickle threw seven innings of two-run ball. Kelvin Hidalgo struggled badly at the plate, striking out 11 times in 20 at-bats.

⬆️ Stock Up: May Gives Spokane a Clean Start

Aiden May made one start and made it count, throwing five innings without an earned run in Wednesday’s 5-3 win — the only run against him came unearned. He scattered four hits and walked two. It was a single outing rather than a body of work, and he struck out only one, but on a staff where six different arms allowed at least four runs in an appearance this series, a starter turning in five clean innings was worth something.

⬇️ Stock Down: Brito’s Bat Disappears

Roldy Brito (PuRP No. 3) went 3-for-22 (.136) with eight strikeouts across five games, driving in one run. It’s a stark reversal from the hot bat we’ve seen for much of the latter stages of August. He remained a threat on the bases with two more steals, and he’s still hitting .278 on the season, but that contact that’s made him so effective went missing entirely against Vancouver.

Upcoming

The Indians will return home for a six-game series with the Everett AquaSox (Seattle Mariners)

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (3-3, 68-58 Overall)

Fresno split six at Inland Empire (Los Angeles Angels) in a series where the offense mostly disappeared, and the Grizzlies won anyway. They scored 27 runs across the six games, and eight of those came in a single win. A couple of the victories arrived late: an eight-run night that survived a ninth-inning grand slam and a four-run eighth to break a tie. Cort MacDonald had seven hits, Wilder Dalis (PuRP No. 10) added six, and Ethan Cole threw four scoreless innings with six strikeouts.

⬆️ Stock Up: Natili Provides the Power

Jack Natili (PuRP No. 20) hit .333 over four games with two home runs and three RBIs, going deep in both Friday and Sunday’s games. In a series where the Grizzlies managed more than five runs only twice, Natili accounted for a meaningful share of what damage there was. He has settled into the full-season baseball quickly.

⬇️ Stock Down: Andujar Can’t Get Started

Ashly Andujar went 3-for-21 (.143) across five games without driving in a run, striking out six times from the top of the order. For a series in which Fresno scored 27 runs total and needed late rallies to win two of them, getting nothing from the leadoff spot made the math harder every night. He did double and draw a walk, but he scored just twice in five games and reached base only four times all week.

Upcoming

Fresno will close out the regular season by facing off against the San Jose Giants (San Francisco Giants) for six games.

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Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
• A June swoon so far
• Awful
• Fake it and maybe make it
• With some luck, back on the horse
• Dwelling in the dog days of August

On August 15, the Braves were enjoying an 8-5 month. They then had more or less the road trip from hell, only to return home and sweep the Dodgers and keep it going with another sweep of the Rockies right after. In total, they went 9-6 over August’s second half. That .600 winning percentage is right in line with their overall .594 winning percentage, so nothing strange there. But, the way they got there… I’ll keep saying it, but this is a weird Braves team.

How did the Braves do recently?

This is basically the crux of the weirdness of the month… and year. The Braves finished these two-ish weeks with a matching .298 wOBA and xwOBA. Both of those are bottom ten marks over this span. The defense wasn’t anything special, either, such that the Braves ranked 19th in team position player fWAR in this span.

The team did hit a little better in August as a whole — 17th in xwOBA, 20th in wRC+, 19th in position player fWAR — but again, this was not some kind of strong offensive performance.

Pitching was a little more clear-cut in some ways, and less in others. The Braves finishing third in MLB in pitching fWAR over August’s second half, but that came with a 73/82/97 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) where the success was highly driven by stuff they didn’t control. Going sixth in ERA-, third in FIP-, and tenth in xFIP- for a couple of weeks will play, don’t get me wrong, but it doesn’t quite feel like it really compensated for the poor offense. Both the rotation and bullpen benefited from a low HR/FB, and both ranked highly in fWAR as a result.

For August as a whole, the pitching staff was fifth in MLB in fWAR — second by the rotation, and middle of the pack by the bullpen. For all the hand-wringing about not getting a better starter at the Trade Deadline, the rotation really stepped up… even the rotation’s xFIP- in August of 91 is good for sixth in MLB for the month.

For these two weeks, the Braves’ accumulated WAR suggested an 8-7 record, so they weren’t very far off. (Thanks, pitching staff and lack of fly balls leaving the yard!) For August, where the Braves went 17-11, they should have gone 15-13 by fWAR-based wins. So, yeah, this team is good at outplaying their production, as they have been for a while now.

Schedule and game-by-game odds-wise, again, the Braves should’ve gone 8-7. They did a little better. They didn’t have any groundbreaking upsets either way, but it is worth noting that losing their makeup game against the Giants at home on August’s final day was the team’s second-worst loss in terms of pre-game odds. Not being able to handle the Giants amid a successful season definitely factors into the weird.

How are the Braves doing on the season?

Well, there’s the rub, right? With five months in the books, the Braves are:

• 18th in position player fWAR, including 13th in xwOBA, 16th in wRC+, and ninth in team defense.
• 11th in pitching fWAR, broken down as 15th in the rotation and sixth in the bullpen, with an aggregate fourth, 13th, and 11th in ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, respectively.

Put all this together and through 138 games, the Braves have a team fWAR of 30.0. A replacement-level team would win about 41 of 138 games, and the Braves, by that logic, “should have” 71 wins. But, y’know, the Braves have 82 wins and not 71. Which all circles back to the idea that this team isn’t particularly good at anything except accumulating a bunch of wins without the production to justify it. It’s a hell of a thing to be good at, because it’s not really a skill, just a quirk, but the Braves just keep doing it. Seriously:

• April: 22-10, 19-13 by WAR-wins, +3
• May: 18-10, 15-12 by WAR-wins, +3
• June: 9-14 (ew), 8-15 by WAR-wins, +1 (even in June they did it!)
• July: 16-11, 14-13 by WAR-wins, +2
• August: 17-11, 15-13 by WAR-wins, +2

The 2026 Braves’ most consistent skill has been winning games on and above their production. Yay?

How are the hitters doing?

Boy, what a strange two weeks in this regard. Even stranger than usual.

Only four guys performed well at the plate over the last two weeks: Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy. Of those four, three massively outhit their inputs, while Matt Olson somehow got saddled with a massive underperformance, such that he actually lost a fraction of fWAR. The other guys all kinda sucked, both inputs-wise and outputs-wise. Mauricio Dubon at least outhit his inputs enough to be respectable, but Mike Yastrzemski fell into another underperformance vortex.

For the season as a whole, the breakdown more or less remains what it is at this point. This is a team led by Harris and Olson, with some good production from Baldwin as well. Dubon has been a great fill-in but isn’t anything special as a regular; the best buds of Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña Jr. have kind of cancelled out each other’s inputs-outputs mismatch and have been below-average regulars thus far, which is a shame. We kind of stopped talking about Austin Riley, but he’s back to being bad again. The outfield platoon, such as it is, is in a weird spot: Yastrzemski has been fine against righties and Lane Thomas has crushed lefties… but the Braves’ lack of slavish devotion to a platoon has harmed both of their lines and value.

You can see that other than the aforementioned best buds duo, the wOBAs and xwOBAs have largely normalized for anyone with a decent sample of PAs.

Harris gets a special shoutout for his contributions during these two weeks: only three of his teammates even finished in the positive in terms of WPA (Ha-Seong Kim being one of them, delightful walkoff with two outs and all), and he had more WPA (1.02) than those three combined. He probably won’t catch Olson (2.66) for the team lead in WPA, but it’s not that far (Harris has 2.21). If Chris Sale weren’t around, the debate between Harris and Olson for team MVP would at least be marginally interesting, but… Chris Sale is very much around.

How are the pitchers doing?

The rotation did well these past two weeks, and in August, so the numbers here are mostly gladdening. Sale’s video game numbers aside, Tyler Mahle pitched very well, and Grant Holmes actually chipped in a decent starting performance as well, though a lot of that was HR/FB-driven. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez had basically what-you-expect-from-these-guys-at-this-point stretches. If things keep up, a playoff rotation of Sale-Mahle-Perez seems pretty good, but the “if things keep up” is doing so much work there it’s almost not worth typing. I think that if push comes to shove, the Braves might give Bryce Elder the third spot because he hasn’t come out of the bullpen before, which is a risky proposition given his ongoing homer issues. With this roster, I can see an attempt at letting Elder start and run a bunch of lefties into the opposing lineup, and then the insertion of Perez as soon as there’s any trouble… but again, you’re still banking on Elder not giving up a homer (or like a walk-walk-homer combo) before you do that.

A special shoutout to Didier Fuentes, who didn’t actually pitch super-great (he was good, just not super-great) lately, but managed to rack up over 0.80 WPA in just seven outings, even while having two meltdowns. Also, file under “bet ya didn’t know this”: Raisel Iglesias managed a 5/0 shutdown/meltdown ratio over these past two weeks.

See you in the middle of September!

Aaron Judge is considering skipping a rehab assignment and rejoining the Yankees in their next homestand.

Will he instantly provide a morale boost for the whole roster? Probably. Will Boone back his decision? Almost definitely. However, is it a smart decision by Judge? That remains to be seen. It isn’t guaranteed that he’ll be 100% as soon as he returns from the injured list, which is exactly the opposite of what this team needs heading into the stretch.

Before the series opener against the Angels on Monday night, Aaron Boone met with the media to discuss Judge’s return timeline and the possibility of his return when the Yankees get back to the Bronx.

“I think it’s possible. I’m not going to put a date on it, but I think those things are in play now. It’s again about getting the durability and workload built up on him, which is the biggest thing now.”

Judge rejoined the lineup instantly after recovering from a torn ligament in his right big toe in 2023 and seems confident that he can repeat history. However, this injury impacts his abilities differently and has kept him sidelined for more than three months.

Boone relayed that physicians are still evaluating Judge to determine the best timeline for his return. The Yankees captain joined the IL in June after suffering from a right rib fracture and hasn’t played in a game since May 31. He’s currently with the team in Los Angeles participating in batting practice and is expected to work his way up to more high-velocity reps in pregame workouts.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of Judge returning to the lineup without a rehab assignment?

Stan Kroenke reached an agreement to buy a control interest in MLB’s Los Angeles Angels from Arte Moreno. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, per a release from Kroenke Sports & Entertainment.

The deal still requires approval by MLB. No financial terms were released, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports the price is $4 billion, eclipsing the record $3.9 billion the San Diego Padres recently sold for.

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The move further expands Kroenke’s sports empire, which was already the biggest in sports. His major sports team assets include the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams, NBA’s Denver Nuggets, NHL’s Colorado Avalanche, Premier League’s Arsenal and MLS’ Colorado Rapids. KSE also owns the Rams’ home, SoFi Stadium, and the surrounding 300-acre Hollywood Park district in Inglewood.

Kroenke is worth $26.8 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Kroenke’s teams have been on a major roll in recent years. Arsenal just won the EPL title after three straight runner-up finishes. The Rams, Avalanche and Nuggets also won their league titles during the last five years. Kroenke’s pro lacrosse team, the Colorado Mammoth, has won two of the last five National Lacrosse League championships.

The success stands in sharp contrast to the Angels, which will miss the playoffs this year for the 16th time in 17 seasons. The lone appearance was a three-game sweep in 2014 at the hands of the Kansas City Royals.

Moreno bought the Angels in 2003 for $183.5 million, as the team was coming off its first World Series title. The Angels made the playoffs in five out of six seasons before the current drought started.

The losses piled up despite the franchise employing two of the greatest players in recent MLB history. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani won a combined five American League MVP awards for the Angels between 2014 and 2023, and Ohtani added two more MVPs since he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers under a 10-year, $700 million deal. The Angels drew at least 3 million fans every year through 2019 but have not topped 2.7 million since then.

Moreno hired Galatioto Sports Partners in 2022 to explore a sale of the franchise, but no deal was reached. The Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins also failed to find control buyers after hiring bankers to facilitate deals.

The Angels were hampered by their venue and TV deal. Angel Stadium, which opened in 1966 and is the fourth oldest in baseball, needs major renovations or replacement. The Angels’ 20-year, $3 billion TV deal with Fox Sports kicked off in 2011, but ahead of his season, the Angels and eight other MLB teams terminated their deals that were now with FanDuel Sports Network.

Sportico valued the Angels at $2.78 billion in its most recent MLB team valuations. It ranked No. 13 in baseball.

(This story has been updated with more information on the Angels and their sale, and with Heyman’s report on the price.)

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The New York Yankees continue a series with the Los Angeles Angels tonight at Angel Stadium, with New York favored at 66%.

Gerrit Cole draws a favorable matchup against a strikeout-heavy Angels lineup, while Grayson Rodriguez’s fastball gives New York a clear offensive advantage.

My Yankees vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1 are below.

Who will win Yankees vs Angels today: Yankees moneyline (66%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

I’m backing the New York Yankees, and would play them to 67%.

Gerrit Cole has returned from Tommy John surgery with a 3.19 ERA and 3.26 xERA while maintaining a 26.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate. That profile fits particularly well against a Los Angeles Angels offense with MLB’s highest strikeout rate at 25%.

In addition, the Halos have just a .680 OPS against right-handed pitching, and their recent 10-run outburst came after posting a .585 OPS across the previous six games.

Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez owns a 5.46 xERA, .461 xSLG, and 45.0% hard-hit rate, ranking near the bottom of MLB in expected results and contact suppression.

His August results improved, but the underlying matchup remains difficult against a Yankees lineup with the third-most home runs in baseball.

COVERS INTEL: Rodriguez throws his four-seamer 54.3% of the time, and opponents have produced a.484 xSLG and 51.5% hard-hit rate against it this season.

Yankees vs Angels Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (51%)

I’m taking the Over and would play it to 52%.

The Yankees have the clearest scoring path. Rodriguez’s primary pitch has been hit hard all season, and New York has 10 home runs and a .453 SLG over its last seven games.

Rodriguez’s 2.93 ERA across five August starts looks encouraging, but it came despite a season-long profile that still sits in the fifth percentile in xERA and sixth percentile in hard-hit suppression. New York should force him to prove that improvement is sustainable.

Cole should control a strikeout-prone Angels lineup, but his 42.3% hard-hit rate leaves enough room for Los Angeles to contribute two or three runs.

Yankees vs Angels home run prediction: Ben Rice (22%)

Rodriguez throws his four-seamer more than half the time and has allowed a 51.5% hard-hit rate and .484 xSLG with the pitch.

Ben Rice has demolished four-seamers, producing a .778 xSLG and 65.8% hard-hit rate against them this season. He also leads New York with 35 home runs and carries a 15% barrel rate. I think he's the most likely of any Yankee to go yard and, luckily enough, fits the best value as well. 

Yankees vs Angels weather

Conditions in Anaheim should be favorable with no significant weather concerns expected.

Yankees vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 64% | Angels 37%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Angels +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Yankees vs Angels trend

The Yankees have won four of Cole's last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels.

How to watch Yankees vs Angels and game info

Yankees vs Angels latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Paul Skenes was in the running for best pitcher on the planet after his 1.97 ERA in 187.2 IP last season which netted him the NL Cy Young Award. But here in his age-24 season, his 3.79 ERA on the season has raised questions about just how great he is and will continue to be. Now, he still has a sub-3.00 FIP (2.96), but even I’ll admit that after a 1.96 ERA and 2.40 FIP through the first two seasons of his career (55 GS 320.2 IP) even I’m wondering who he’s going to be going forward. Still, obviously, a great pitcher, but still on track to be one of the best ever?

Well, the way baseball works is that it usually doesn’t work out that way. And pitcher identities shift all the time.

Take, for example, Skenes’ opponent in the game 1 matchup: Logan Webb. Still the Giants’ ace, but maybe he’s no longer one of the top 5 pitchers in the sport as he has been the past few years. Now, admittedly, some of my Giants fandom is informing that (maybe he’s more accurately a top-10 since 2022), but all I’m really trying to do is point out that Logan Webb might be entering a new phase of his career just as Skenes might be.

So, is this a matchup of two pitchers heading in opposite career directions or figuring out what’s the next adjustment they need to make in order to continue their success? Both are being hit harder than they had previously, and this could all be a matter of ABS. Webb has lost some stolen strikes and now the challenge system allows some called pitches to be reclassified. Skenes is probably experiencing a similar squeeze. His walk rate is up from 2.08 BB/9 in years 1 & 2 to 2.54 this season. But, y’know, he’s still a 4-WAR pitcher at the moment. Logan Webb, despite missing a bunch of starts with injury is a 3-WAR pitcher. They’re both still good, but mid-phase.

In another phase shift, the Pirates, perennial non-contenders, raised hopes for a decent chunk of this season that they might be Wild Card contenders (32-28 through May 31). The Giants, of course, erased all hope that Buster Posey would bring them out of the doldrums to be a competitive franchise again. The Pirates might not be a Wild Card team in 2026, but they appear setup to finish strong and be in the conversation again next year. If the San Francisco Giants went away tomorrow, nothing would be lost and no future plans ruined. (In this scenario, all the players resurface in other organizations.)

22-year old Esmerlyn Valdez has 16 homers in 65 games, a 14.7% walk rate and… ahem… 37.5% strikeout rate. But also, a .290 ISO / .535 slug. That’s fun, right? Konorro Griffin has been out since July (and will miss this series), but a 20-year old up the middle defender with a .276/.332/.404 line in 247 PA is a promising early return. They’ve gotten good performances from free agents (Ryan O’Hearn, reliever Gregory Soto) and trade pieces (Brandon Lowe) and, offensively, they’ve scored the fifth-most runs in the sport (669; though, just a 101 wRC+). They’re also the #6 pitching staff by fWAR (17.0). They don’t allow home runs and they strikeout a lot of batters (#4 in K/9 in MLB).

Pittsburgh is 6 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and are definitely longshots. The Giants have been dreadful on the road (24-45), but now that they project to lose fewer than 100 games, maybe they’ll be more relaxed and, therefore, competitive? Hard to say.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (57-81) at Pittsburgh Pirates (67-71)
Where: PNC Park | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
When: Tuesday & Wednesday at 3:40pm PT, Thursday at 9:35am PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Tuesday: Logan Webb (RHP 8-8, 3.72 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP 9-11, 3.79 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 8-13, 4.25 ERA) vs. Jared Jones (RHP 2-6, 4.83 ERA)
Thursday: Blade Tidwell (RHP 0-1, 4.54 ERA) vs. TBD

Prediction time

Bryan Reynolds is having his best overall season (2.5 fWAR) since maybe 2022 (2.9)? His power numbers are way down (a .159 ISO in 2026 compared to .184 for his career) but he’s walking like crazy (13.1%) and just getting on base (.369 — 18th in MLB). However, he had a terrible August (.238/.322/.295 in 27 games, 118 PA) and in the last 5 seasons, he hasn’t been all that great against the Giants (21-for-100, 4 HR, 20 RBI since the start of 2022). But if the Pirates are to make one last push for a playoff spot, he’s going to have to be a part of that. So, my prediction will be that he heats up against the Giants, helping the Pirates win at least one game in this series.

Logan Webb has started just 2 games at PNC Park in his career and he has a 2.25 ERA in 12 IP with 16 K just 1 walk allowed and 0 home runs allowed. Both of those starts came in 6:40pm local start times as this game 1 start will be tonight. I bring that up because, this season especially, his day/night ERA split is stark: 2.31 ERA in the day, 4.98 ERA at night. I predict that the time of day won’t be an issue and he’ll have a 6-inning, 2-run game.

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A full slate of baseball games means a complete selection of MLB expert picks.

Our five best baseball brains have pored over the odds to come up with a slew of MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, Sept. 1, including the Chicago Cubs moneyline and the Over at Wrigley Field.

Let's kick the new month off right.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: CHW ML	53%
Jon Metler: ARI ML	45%
Neil Parker: CHC ML	54%
Joe Osborne: MIL/CHC o10.5	46%
Dustin Saracini: PHI/ARI u7.5	49%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 53¢ at Polymarket

There's a lot to unpack here, and a lot of it comes down to having no interest in the Houston Astros today.

First, the starting pitching matchup is much further apart than this line suggests. Ronel Blanco is not an MLB-caliber starter and just gave up 10 runs while recording only seven outs in his last Triple-A start. He currently owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings, along with the fifth-worst HR/9.

Making matters worse for Blanco, the Houston bullpen is taxed. The Astros are down four arms today, including high-leverage relievers Bryan Abreu and Steven Okert.

The Chicago White Sox, meanwhile, had a Top-7 bullpen last month and have all but one arm available. 

Finally, per Kevin Roth, a tropical storm is heading toward Houston today. I would think that situation could weigh more heavily on the home team, with roots and families in the area, than the visiting club. I have Chicago as a 57% favorite today.

For more on this game, Neil Parker has a full slate of White Sox vs. Astros predictions.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline

Price: 45¢ at Polymarket

Jesus Luzardo is one of the toughest starting pitchers in the National League, and his sweeper has been one of his biggest weapons this season, carrying a +20 run value and a 47.9% whiff rate. The pitch is especially effective against left-handed hitters, but it loses some of its effectiveness against righties.

That could limit its impact in this matchup, as the Arizona Diamondbacks are likely to feature a lineup with Corbin Carroll as their only left-handed hitter. On the other side, the Philadelphia Phillies' two most dangerous hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, also face a difficult matchup against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.

Rodriguez can use his changeup to fade away from barrels, giving him an effective weapon against Philadelphia's left-handed power. 

The Diamondbacks are trading at 45% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 49% underdog, which is why I'm hitting the button.

Neil Parker has the whole breakdown with his Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 54¢ at Polymarket

The Chicago Cubs pace the majors in wOBA, xwOBA, and ISO while averaging 7.5 runs per game across the past two weeks, and the Milwaukee Brewers are sending lefty Robert Gasser (4.52 xERA on the road) to the hill.

Chicago also leads the league in wOBA and ISO against southpaws, and Matthew Boyd is coming off a tidy start last time out.

I expect Boyd to keep the Brewers off balance enough for the Cubbies to pull away.

Check out Neil Parker's complete Brewers vs. Cubs predictions for more.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Brewers.TV, Marquee

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers at Cubs Over 10.5

Price: 46¢ at Polymarket

Both pitching staffs will have their hands full, with two red-hot offenses and a little bit of wind blowing out at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs and Brewers rank first and third in OPS over the past week, with the Cubbies scoring a ridiculous 47 runs in their last four games, including 17 last night!

Gasser has a 5.10 road ERA and faces MLB’s top lineup against lefties over the past month. Boyd owns a 5.44 home ERA, and Brewers hitters have had his number, combining for a .825 OPS against him in 86 at-bats. 

On the surface, both bullpens have been decent, but a deeper dive has them ranked 22nd and 26th in FIP over the past two weeks. Over 10.5 runs is the play.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: TBS

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Phillies at Diamondbacks Under 7.5

Price: 49¢ at Polymarket

We have a pair of aces coming off their best starts of the season against two offenses in the Bottom 10 for wRC+. Smells like an Under to me.

While Luzardo is coming off a seven-inning shutout, E-Rod has thrown 12 2/3 straight scoreless innings. Both thrive in this specific matchup, too, with Luzardo limiting this D-backs offense to a .293 xwOBA, and the Phillies owning just a .230 xBA against Rodriguez.

Worried about Schwarber here? He's hitless in eight at-bats against Rodriguez, striking out four times.

Don't overthink this one. I'd play it up to 55 cents.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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Anaheim Angels owner Arte Moreno is selling the team to Stan Kroenke, per multiple reports. Kroenke, a 79 year old billionaire, also owns the Los Angeles Rams, the Denver Nuggets, the Colorado Avalanche, Arsenal F.C., Arsenal W.F.C., the Colorado Rapids, and the Colorado Mammoth.

This would be the end of the tenure of an individual widely viewed as one of the worst owners in MLB. Moreno bought the Angels in early 2003, when they were coming off their first World Series title in 2002. The Angels have not returned to the World Series since, have made it as far as the ALCS on twice in that time, and haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. The team is currently 53-85, and has clinched the franchise’s 11th straight season with a losing record.

September 1 means roster expansion in Major League Baseball. Gone are the days where teams could call up as many players as they could fit onto the roster and into the dugout and bullpen. The Orioles and every other team now gets one extra position player and one extra pitcher to create a 28-man roster for September. The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka reported separately on the two additions coming on Tuesday: Outfielder Heston Kjerstad and lefty pitching prospect Luis De León.

There will be additional roster movement on Tuesday. The Orioles optioned last night’s pitcher, Cade Povich, back to Triple-A Norfolk after that game was finished. They are expected to bring repeated DFA-and-back guy Albert Suárez back again. Also, waiver claim outfielder Luis Robert Jr. will likely be reporting to the team for Tuesday’s game, which will necessitate another move. I’d expect outfielder Christian Franklin to be optioned back to the minors.

I think the Orioles are looking at this as the final opportunity for Kjerstad to prove that he can do something at the major league level. If he does, maybe he’s in next year’s plans in some way. If he doesn’t, then he’s probably not. In 79 games for Norfolk this year, he’s batted .289/.337/.462 with 11 home runs. That’s fine. It’s nothing close to what he did two years ago, when he had 16 home runs and a .998 OPS in 56 games before getting called up to the Orioles. He’s 27. Whatever he is now is probably the best he will ever be again.

De León is the most exciting addition since he’s actually a prospect – #7 on the team’s most recent MLB Pipeline list and the highest-ranked on that list who has been playing at Norfolk. The 23-year-old is a hard-throwing lefty who’s been racking up lots of strikeouts while ascending the minor league levels. That includes 121 strikeouts across 99 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s also battled command problems, to the order of 53 walks in the same amount of time.

That’s not a good K/BB ratio. De León has not exactly demonstrated that he’s adjusted to Triple-A yet either; he had a 6.50 ERA in a few starts and a few relief stints at the level. The team had moved him to the bullpen with an eye on having him reinforce the unit in September. He only has to be better than Grant Wolfram to improve the group. Your guess is as good as mine.

Robert Jr. was a waiver claim in recent days, having been dumped by the Mets. The 29-year-old Cuban was pretty good in his first four seasons on the Chicago White Sox. That took him up to 2023. A lot has happened since 2023 and Robert has hit a combined .223/.291/.377 in 268 games over those seasons. It’s not good. However, he missed a lot of this season and over the last month he has an .841 OPS.

The Orioles have made a $5 million bet – $3 million remaining in his 2026 salary plus a $2 million buyout on a 2027 option – that Robert will help them with the wild card push. That’s not chump change to lay out at this point in the season. Hopefully it turns out better than when their late-season addition was a former White Sox teammate of Robert’s, Eloy Jiménez. He only has to hit better than Franklin and play better defense than Dylan Beavers.

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The Philadelphia Phillies are short road favorites for the second tilt in their three-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Tuesday, Sept. 1.

First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET, and my top Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks call for Philly to secure a second consecutive low-scoring win tonight.

Who will win Phillies vs Diamondbacks today: Phillies (55.2%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

With two of the best lefties in baseball going head-to-head, I’m anticipating a low-scoring game and runs to be at a premium tonight with Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo and Arizona Diamondbacks veteran Eduardo Rodriguez toeing the rubber.

As a result, I’m simplifying my handicap to back the starter with the better underlying numbers, plus the Phillies' better offensive form and superior bullpen.

Luzardo ranks second among all pitchers with at least 50 innings with a 2.30 xERA across his past 14 starts, while Rodriguez ranks 66th with a 4.10 mark during the same stretch.

Similarly, the Phillies pace the majors in xwOBA over the past 30 days, while the Diamondbacks check in 15th.

I would play this to 58%.

COVERS INTEL: The Philadelphia Phillies rank fifth in bullpen xERA and sixth in xFIP over the past 30 days, while the Arizona Diamondbacks rank 29th and 27th.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (52.4%)

Even with a healthy gap in Rodriguez’s surface 2.50 ERA and underlying 4.43 xERA and 4.34 xFIP, he’s still held opponents to two runs or fewer in 12 of his past 14 starts while spinning a 2.48 ERA.

As a result, I anticipate him largely keeping the Phillies off balance deep enough into tonight’s game to help pave the way to the Under. 

Finally, both teams have also trended to the Under. The Phillies have hit the Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI), while the Diamondbacks have gone Under the number in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+5.05 Units / 9% ROI).

Phillies vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Alec Bohm (10%)

Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm sports a solid .184 ISO against lefties this season, and he’s put up a 1.750 OPS against Rodriguez across a small sample.

So, considering Rodriguez allowed a healthy .195 ISO to right-handed hitters over the previous two seasons, there’s regression ahead of this year’s .146 mark, which lands Bohm in flier territory to cash in and go yard tonight.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather

The retractable roof at Chase Field will be closed for tonight's game.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Phillies 58.3% | Diamondbacks 45.5%
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (44.4%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (60%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52.4%) | Under 7.5 (52.4%)

Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Phillies vs Diamondbacks and game info

Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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