The New York Knicks can take solace that Trae Young is nowhere to be found in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks, and thus, Knicks fans don't have a chance to spit on him because he was torching their team.
Young is in a Washington Wizards uniform after a January trade, but when he was in Atlanta five years ago, he single-handedly led the Hawks to a five-game drubbing of the Knicks, leading to more postseason dread for New York.
Nothing has changed in the big picture for the Knicks, who are seeking their first Finals appearance since 1999, and welcome the visiting Hawks to kick off the best-of-seven series.
Here is a breakdown of the Knicks-Hawks series:
How the Knicks can advance
Of course, Jalen Brunson wasn't on the Knicks roster in 2021 and joined the team the next offseason after leaving the Dallas Mavericks and signing a four-year, $104 million free-agent contract.
The Knicks' playoff fortunes begin and end with Brunson, the reigning Clutch Player of the Year, so it is imperative that he gets going early and also gets his teammates involved. That means Karl Anthony Towns needs to be aggressive on both ends of the floor, and in his two games this season against the Hawks, he averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds. But the bench is the X-factor for New York, which ranked third in offensive efficiency and fifth in 3-point percentage, and can generally go nine or 10 deep during the postseason, which might give them an advantage the longer the series goes on.
New York, winners of 53 games, played at a faster pace and hoisted more 3-pointers this season than under predecessor Tom Thibodeau. But one disadvantage is that, looking ahead to Boston, a healthy Jayson Tatum could be staring them right in the face in the second round.
How the Hawks can advance
Atlanta has played outstanding basketball over the last two months, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them advance out of this round.
Their defense must be elite, and the Hawks have a top-10 defense, just like the Knicks, who are more than capable of turning stingy defense into instant offense. Job number one for Atlanta is to stop Brunson on the offensive end and make him a liability on defense, using their guards' height advantage. They must also win the rebounding battle and pound the ball inside, as New York's lack of rim presence, especially shot blocking, can be used to their advantage.
Jalen Johnson has turned into a star, averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game, and teaming with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a nearly 21-point-per-game scorer, the Knicks will have their hands full against one of the best distributing teams in the league. The addition of Jonathan Kuminga should help, especially when Atlanta struggles in the half-court. But the Hawks must run the Knicks out of the gym to have a chance, but they might not have the offensive firepower to stay in the series.
Prediction: Knicks in five
Knicks vs hawks Series schedule: TV, stream information
Game 1: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, April 18, 6 p.m., Prime Video
Game 2: Atlanta at New York, Monday, April 20, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
Game 3: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 23, 7 p.m., Prime Video
Game 4: New York at Atlanta, Saturday, April 25, 6 p.m., NBC
Game 5: Atlanta at New York, Tuesday, April 28, TBD, (if necessary)
Game 6: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 30, TBD (if necessary)
Game 7: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, May 2, TBD (if necessary)
ASSEN, NETHERLANDS - APRIL 17: Alex Lowes of Great Britain riding bimota KB998 Rimini bimota by Kawasaki Racing Team competes in the practice sessions during the Pirelli Dutch Round (Round 3) of the WorldSBK or SBK FIM Superbike World Championship at TT Assen Circuit on April 17, 2026 in Assen, Netherlands. (Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images) | Getty Images
All four Rangers affiliates scored double digits yesterday. Yes, even Hub City.
Hickory starter Jormy Nivar allowed one run in four innings, striking out four and walking one.
Paulino Santana was 2 for 5 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was had a hit and a walk. Marcos Torres was 2 for 3 with two walks and three stolen bases. Hector Osorio was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, two walks, and three stolen bases. Josh Springer had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks. Esteban Mejia was 3 for 5.
Hub City starter J’Briell Easley threw two shutout innings, striking out three. Anthony Susac struck out two in 2.1 scoreless.
Maxton Martin tripled and drew two walks. Gleider Figuereo was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk. Malcolm Moore drew a walk. Chandler Pollard drew a pair of walks.
Dane Acker started for Round Rock and gave up five runs in 2.1 IP, walking four and striking out one. Emiliano Teodo allowed an unearned run in 1.2 IP, walking one and striking out two. Thomas Ireland, apparently sent to Round Rock as a filler arm after the Express lost Cal Quantrill, Gavin Collyer and Marc Church from their pitching staff yesterday, struck out three, walked two and allowed one run in three innings. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a two run homer in two innings, striking out one.
Justin Foscue had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.
We’re about 24 hours away from game one! Before the Minnesota Timberwolves begin on their postseason quest, let’s review their performance throughout the 82-game regular season. We had 42 voters chime in on their player grades as well as what they think will happen in the playoffs in…
(Note: Canis Pulsus Vol. 48 data was collected through 4/15)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 5: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves smiles after the game against the Charlotte Hornets on April 5, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Ant finishes the season with an A- grade, right around where he was all season. It feels like while Edwards leveled up in certain areas of his game, while there’s still some glaring holes in other areas. Worst of all, this was the most amount of games he’s missed in a season. He missed 21 games with a good chunk of those coming near the end of the season. As they say, the Wolves will only go as far as Ant can take them.
Full voting results:
Julius Randle
B (33.3% each)
Quarter 1: B+ (38.2%) Semester 1: A / B+ (31.9% each) Quarter 3: B (28%)
If you had to plot Julius Randle’s effectiveness throughout the season, it would look like a damn seismograph. High peaks early, immediately turning into low valleys, spiking up and down the rest of the way. Randle almost got the Andrew Wiggins “The Best Ability to Availability” award had he not been shut down for the final three games of the season for rest. His Hyde and Jekyll tendencies will be a huge factor in the postseason.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – MARCH 25: Jaden McDaniels #3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the Houston Rockets in the third quarter at Target Center on March 25, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Rockets 110-108 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It felt like Jaden was having a career-best season, especially early on. Despite some regression later in the year, Slim still finished with career-highs in scoring, shooting, and playmaking. The consistency must improve if he truly wants to emerge as that long-term second star next to Ant that many are hoping for. Perhaps most importantly, his mental game must keep improving. We had a fair share of “Jaden getting lost in the game” due the return of foul issues or other shenanigans.
Full voting results:
Rudy Gobert
B+ (31%)
Quarter 1: B+ (35.3%) Semester 1: A (33.3%) Quarter 3: A (28%)
Rudy finished the season as the league-leader in field goal percentage. He was fairly consistent and reliable as that “floor raiser” the Wolves have become used to. Gobert will surely end up on another All-Defensive team after a solid season. Opponents keep trying him in isolation situations, and they keep failing. Rudy did struggle at the charity stripe this season though, reverting to his first sub-60% season in 10 years.
Full voting results:
Donte DiVincenzo
B (35.7%)
Quarter 1: B (35.3%) Semester 1: B (34.7%) Quarter 3: B+ (36%)
The real Mr. 82 has been solidly “good” all season. Sometimes great, sometimes not so much, but for the most part, consistent. Donte saw a spike in playing time this season, averaging a career-high 30.4 minutes per game. He launched and sank more three-pointers than he did in his first season with Minnesota, but the efficiency has ticked down at all three levels. No matter how his stroke is feeling, the Big Ragu always is going to put his body on the line and make the hustle plays.
Full voting results:
DALLAS, TEXAS – MARCH 30: Ayo Dosunmu #13 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on during the third quarter of the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on March 30, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Ayo Dosunmu
A (42.9%)
Quarter 3: B+ (28%)
Ayo received the highest grade of any player and it’s much deserved. In just 26 games with the Wolves, Dosunmu notched 14.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on elite shooting splits (.521/.414/.925). He has simply been amazing and will hopefully be a part of the Timberwolves organization for a long, long time. He’s truly one of the biggest X-factors for Minnesota in their postseason run.
What a rollercoaster of a season it’s been for Naz. It began with a really tough start to the season on the heels of a heart-breaking family tragedy. He eventually found his form as the year progressed, but has been dealing with a bevy of injuries recently. Naz is trying to get right before the postseason starts because he will play a big role in Minnesota’s success.
Full voting results:
DETROIT, MI – APRIL 2: Kyle Anderson #12 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball during the game against the Detroit Pistons on April 2, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Kyle Anderson
B+ (31.7%)
The Wolves welcomed back their Chinese-Jamaican King! SlowMo has been deployed early and often by Coach Finch. After playing just 24 of 57 possible games this season between Utah and Memphis, Anderson played in 19 of 21 possible games with Minnesota. He’s picked up almost exactly where he left off on the defensive end of the court. You can bet he’s going to see the court during the postseason.
Full voting results:
Mike Conley
C- (28.6%)
Quarter 1: C (29.4%) Semester 1: C- (23.9%) Quarter 3: C (30.6%)
Minnesota Mike played in 46 of the Wolves first 60 games, which included a 2-3 week vacation during the NBA trade deadline. Then he essentially received 12 straight healthy scratches after that. Conley has since found opportunities on the court amid Minnesota’s injury spell, and he has taken advantage of those opportunities. Most importantly, he’s hit 45.2% of his three-pointers after shooting just 31.1% earlier in the season. Can he have one more magic (Mike) moment in the playoffs?
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – MARCH 25: Bones Hyland #8 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates against the Houston Rockets in the third quarter at Target Center on March 25, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Rockets 110-108 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Bones has been a revelation for the Wolves this year. Not quite as consistent or versatile as the other half of Twin Turbos, Hyland has provided much-needed bench scoring amid Naz Reid’s struggles. He’s having the most efficient season scoring the ball and is a spark plug that galvanizes both his teammates and fans. The Skelly Celly has also taken a grip around all of Minnesota.
There were a lot of high hopes for Clark County’s role this year. The defensive hole that Nickeil Alexander-Walker left behind was one that many thought Clark could step into, and despite some early season success, has found himself in a bit of a doghouse. Finch has only played Jaylen in 14 of the team’s final 22 games, and under 10 minutes in half of those games. The infamous stat of the Wolves record when Clark plays 15 minutes of more concludes at 20-5, for now.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – APRIL 12: Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 reacts as Joe Ingles #7 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans in the fourth quarter at Target Center on April 12, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Pelicans 132-126. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
TJ Shannon, similar to Clark, was expected to have a significant role with the Wolves this season. Unfortunately, he floundered early. He received just a C+ grade for the Quarter 1 Progress Report, then went missing in action due to a nagging foot injury for the next two quarters of the season. Shannon finished with a bang in this final quarter. Well, more like his final three games, where he averaged 27.3 points on 55.6% shooting from the floor. TJ sunk 3.3 threes and 7.3 free throws during that stretch, just a glimpse of his full potential.
The 19-year-old Frenchman appeared in 40 regular season games, but just double-digit minutes in seven of those games. Finch has been very selective with how he’s deployed the rookie much to the fans chagrin. There’s been enough flashes to be optimistic about his near-term and long-term future. Joan dominated by averaging a double-double in 11 G League games with Iowa, so hopefully we can see him continue next season with Minnesota.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MN. – APRIL 2026: Minnesota Timberwolves forward Joe Ingles (7) basket in the second quarter at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, final regular season game. (Photo by Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images) | Star Tribune via Getty Images
Joe Ingles played basketball! Well, 5.7 minutes in 27 games may not seem like much, that’s actually more than the 19 games he appeared in a season ago. Joe is always bringing the good vibes and as the kids say, “Unc still got it!” In his only non-garbage time game of the season, Ingles posted 15 points, 6 boards, and 10 assists against the Pelicans in game 82! A+ for Joe.
The three two-way players and Julian Phillips each had strong seasons and performances with the Iowa Wolves, helping them end their 11-year playoff drought. They didn’t have any true opportunities to play a meaningful role with the Timberwolves, but if you want to hear more about their seasons, check out my Iowa Wolves coverage.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – APRIL 07: Head coach Chris Finch of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on April 07, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Every year, we hear the “Fire Finch” chants. Every year, he proves how silly that would’ve been. This hasn’t been a banner regular season for Chris Finch, but is it all his fault? There’s fervent voices on both sides of this argument, but he has notched the same record with the Wolves as he did last season. There’s been considerably more injuries and roster losses, though many still thought Minnesota should’ve taken a step forward.
Full voting results:
Front office
A (28.6%)
Quarter 1: B (29.4%) Semester 1: A- (31.9%) Quarter 3: A (28.6%)
The front office did a great job at the trade deadline and putting together the Twin Turbos. Hindsight always makes it easy to nitpick though. Choosing Naz over NAW. Choosing Rob Dillingham. But in the meantime, the Wolves still have a lot of value on their roster and have the opportunity to keep the core together long-term this summer. There may be a lot of changes in the offseason, but Tim Connelly has done well once again.
Full voting results:
MINNEAPOLIS, MN. – APRIL 2026 Kevin Garnett acknowledges the crowd at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Sunday, April 12, 2026. Behind Garnett is his daughter Kavalli. The Hall of Fame forward and all-time franchise leader in nearly every major statistical category walked into the arena after player introductions, receiving a roar from the crowd and patting his heart with his hand. Garnett, who had a falling out with previous owner Glen Taylor after his career was over, reached an agreement last year with the team to serve as an ambassador. His No. 21 jersey will be retired at a later date. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans, final regular season game. (Photo by Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images) | Star Tribune via Getty Images
Ownership
A (26.8% each)
Quarter 1: B (26.5%) Semester 1: A (31.9%) Quarter 3: A / B+ (20% each)
Wolves fans finally got to enjoy the return of Kevin Garnett at Target Center. It was a beautiful night of basketball with a ton of highlights from the young guys and good vibes all around. Ownership has done their part to make fans enjoy the overall experience this season, but they may need to consider how to get them in the seats with the decline of attendance and rising prices.
Full voting results:
What will be the result of the round one Denver Nuggets matchup?
Wolves in 7 (28.6%)
The result is not too surprising with just 59.5% of voters going with the Timberwolves. There was a dueling pair of 21.4% of votes for Wolves in 6 and Nuggets in 6. Either way, fans are expecting a long and drawn out series between two teams who are 14-14 against each other in all-time postseason games.
Full voting results:
The key for the Timberwolves to defeat the Nuggets is…
Defense and limiting Jamal Murray
More than half the responses included locking in on the defensive end and limiting the non-Jokić players, particularly Jamal Murray. In his four regular season matchups against Minnesota this year, Murray averaged 31.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. That’s pretty good. The Wolves cannot simply rely on one of two players to slow him down though, as it will be a total team effort.
My hot take from the Wolves-Nuggets series is…
No ice packs will be harmed this time around
In case you forgot, Jamal Murray threw objects onto the court from the bench during a live play that could’ve severely injured players, yet received nothing but a fine.
I was glad to see there was a voter who felt certain that this wouldn’t be the case this time. Some other interesting answers included:
Jokic will not get a triple double
TJ Shannon will provide solid bench scoring
Jaden McDaniels will average more than 20 points per game
Ayo will be too much for Denver to handle
Kyle Anderson will have a triple-double
Jamal Murray crashes out
Chris Finch will get out coached again and his seat will be burning hot
Core vs non-core for next season will become obvious
DENVER, COLORADO – MARCH 1: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates the win against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on March 1, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the regular season over, my feelings on the direction of the Timberwolves are…
Slightly optimistic (61.9%)
Preseason: Very optimistic (63.3%) Quarter 1: Slightly optimistic (61.8%) Semester 1: Very optimistic (70.8%) Quarter 3: Slightly optimistic (54%)
There’s reason to not be overly optimistic considering the difficult task Minnesota has ahead of them. This iteration of the Wolves hasn’t stormed the league, but anything is possible in the playoffs. Will Ant, Jaden, and Naz be at close to full health? Will a fully rested Julius pay dividends? How about the debut of playoff Ayo and Twin Turbos)? There’s plenty of questions ahead.
Full voting results:
The Minnesota Timberwolves finish the season with a 3.19 GPA, just a slight dip from their 3.26 third quarter grades. That’s still an improvement from the 3.05 they finished with last season! Thank you to all who have participated.
There’s a strange, almost cruel symmetry to the way this first-round series between the Rockets and the Lakers has taken shape.
Three weeks ago, the Lakers looked like one of the NBA’s best teams, on the precipice of making a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, the Rockets were stumbling through March grasping for something to hold onto.
Now the roles have reversed, violently.
The Lakers limp into the postseason missing their top two scorers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves — that’s nearly 60 points per game gone like smoke.
There’s a strange, almost cruel symmetry to the way this first-round series between the Rockets and the Lakers has taken shape. Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesNow the roles have reversed, violently. Getty Images
The Rockets enter the playoffs soaring, winners of nine of their last 10 games. They’ve rediscovered their identity, and it starts and ends on the defensive end.
The Lakers will try to hold onto the rope long enough for their two stars to try to come back later in the series. Until then, here are some of the matchups to look for:
LeBron vs the Machine
The Lakers’ only chance of getting past Houston without Doncic and Reaves hangs on the back of a 41-year-old LeBron James.
Houston won’t treat him like a king. The Rockets will treat him like the head of the snake. Stop him and let the role players try to beat you. Unfortunately for the Lakers, Houston has a lot of players on its roster who can do that.
Let’s start with Amen Thompson — long, relentless and unapologetically physical. He finished fifth for NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, and we expect another top-five finish this year. Thompson will take on the assignment of guarding James straight up at times, stripping away the need for help defense thereby allowing the rest of the players to stay home on their assignments.
When Thompson’s not on LeBron, the Rockets can also throw 6-foot-11 forward Jabari Smith Jr. on him with his over 7-foot wingspan. If they want a different look, Houston coach Ime Udoka can also put 6-8 physical forward Tari Eason on him.
The Lakers’ only chance of getting past Houston without Doncic and Reaves hangs on the back of a 41-year-old LeBron James. NBAE via Getty Images
Alperen Sengun vs DeAndre Ayton: The Battle Beneath
In a series defined by perimeter defenders and NBA legends, the most important matchup in the series might happen in the paint.
Turkish big man Alperen Sengun is now a fulcrum. He’s a two-time All-Star and a problem in the paint who demands constant attention. The assignment of guarding him belongs to former No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton.
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In his first season with the purple and gold, Ayton has been inconsistent, his focus and effort drifting at times — until recently. The last six weeks have offered a glimpse into what he can be when he’s engaged, physical, present and focused.
Ayton has the most difficult assignment of any Lakers player. Rebound everything. Keep the Rockets off the offensive glass. Contain Sengun as much as he can, be the rim defender when the Lakers switch to a zone defense and run the pick and roll with James and Luke Kennard in order to make a dent on offense as well.
The assignment of guarding him belongs to former No. 1 overall draft pick Deandre Ayton. Getty Images
Different Defensive Looks and Disruption
Not an individual matchup, but we expect the Lakers to give the Rockets different looks on defense throughout the series. The team frustrated its opponents throughout the season by switching to a zone defense during games. We expect some zone looks in this series as well.
Houston isn’t a strong 3-point shooting team outside of Reed Sheppard, which could allow the Lakers to play zone sometimes and dare the Rockets to beat them from distance. They also want to disrupt passing lanes, force turnovers and blitz Kevin Durant. Blitzing Durant when he had the ball worked in their last two matchups in Houston. In their first matchup March 16, they erased a six-point halftime deficit by blitzing Durant and holding him scoreless the entire second half until a last-second layup in garbage time.
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The Rockets have one of the slowest paces of play and will want to slow down the game and grind it to a halt in the half court. The Lakers, meanwhile, need chaos and to get out in transition. Quick strikes before the Rockets’ defense can even set up.
Houston will need Sheppard’s 3-point shooting in this series, but when he’s on the floor, look for LeBron and the Lakers to hunt him on defense. Drag him into screens. Force switches. Attack.
Not an individual matchup, but we expect the Lakers to give the Rockets different looks on defense throughout the series. Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: The Last of the Mohicans
Durant is the quiet storm that hovers over this series. Houston’s elite perimeter defenders allow Durant to expend his energy on the offensive end of the floor, where he can take over entire games.
The Lakers will likely throw the smaller Marcus Smart and stronger Rui Hachimura at him, hoping the combination can disrupt his rhythm. LeBron will even guard him at times as well. Help will inevitably come. It has to. But every second defender you throw at Durant allows someone else to be wide open.
If Houston finds those players and they make those shots, the Lakers are in big trouble.
Expect James to have the ball in his hands most of the time on offense, hunting mismatches and forcing Houston to make tough decisions. On defense, LeBron will lurk, providing help on Durant.
This might be the final chapter between LeBron and Durant and who wins the individual battles could be the player who leads his team to victory in the series.
Game 1 on Saturday will go a long way to decide who will win the series. Both teams will try to set the tempo early and impose their will. Houston has the momentum, the depth and the defense that travels.
The Lakers have LeBron, shooting and the hope that if they hold onto the rope long enough, Doncic and Reaves can return to rescue them later in the series.
DENVER, CO - APRIL 4: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets handles the ball against Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs on April 4, 2026 at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
It feels like the difference between the NBA’s regular season and playoffs becomes more stark every year. While high-scoring games and tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.
The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.
With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.
13. Los Angeles Lakers
It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.
12. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.
10. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.
9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.
6. New York Knicks
The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.
5. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.
4. Boston Celtics
Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.
3. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.
2. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.
Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas speaks at a press conference on Friday, Jan. 23, 2025. (Emily Curiel/Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
The Kansas City Royals are 7-12 and just lost a heartbreaker to the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon. Despite that, I imagine that there were still plenty of smiles at 1 Royal Way yesterday after the KCMO City Council passed a stadium financing ordinance that could provide up to $600 million for the construction of a new stadium in the “Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.” The vote passed 11-1-1. This vote was a big step for KCMO to keep the Royals in the city, but it’s just a step with more to come. This legislation authorizes KCMO City Manager Mario Vasquez to officially start negotiating with the Royals, as we see in Section 3 of the bill:
Section 3. That the City Manager is hereby directed to negotiate, in coordination with the appropriate agencies, a comprehensive lease and a comprehensive development agreement with the Kansas City Royals organization, developers, city incentive agencies, and other relevant parties for the development of a new stadium and team offices in the Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.
Kansas City Star reporter Dylan Lysen wrote a quality article on what this does and does not mean, and what steps are next:
It mostly sets up a general framework and roadmap for city officials to reach agreements with the Royals and other government agencies who would all be involved in bringing the stadium to life.
Getting the project any further along will not only require buy-in from the team and the state, but the City Council will also still need to approve any funding promises, a lease and other details at a later date before construction can begin.
The Royals seem pleased with the vote; they released a statement stating:
The Royals remain grateful for the work and attention of local leaders. We respect the process, which includes the City Council and Parks Board consideration, and the City Manager’s presentation of a term sheet for review and negotiation, with a long-term vision that we expect to include one of the largest private investments in Kansas City history. As always, our motivation is to find the best solution for our team, our fans, and our community. We’re excited by the possibilities this opportunity presents for our hometown
The team’s success in local politics did not translate on to the field, as the team lost 10-9 in a walk-off in Detroit. Lucas Erceg, who blew the save in the ninth inning, shouldered the blame for the loss:
“We finally turn the corner, and I just come out and blow the lead like that and lose the game. So, I feel like this loss is on me. But, then again, there’s always tomorrow. And I’m going to be ready for tomorrow. I hope that I’m in the same situation tomorrow night and get back to winning.”
For something more positive, Kiri Oler referenced a piece of literature I’d never heard of breakdown of Seth Lugo’s pitches that was way above my head but still an enjoyable read:
In defense of the hitters, Lugo gives them a complicated set of variables to consider during the small window of time allotted for a swing decision. He’s got seven(ish) pitches to his name, and they all make an essential contribution to who he is as a pitcher.
Maybe the Royals can channel the power of Mike Trout when they face the New York Yankees this weekend. The slugger hit his fifth home-run in the four game series at New York on Thursday.
Old friend Mark Canha has asked to be released by the Texas Rangers so he can pursue big league opportunities with another team.
Old friend Richard Lovelady has been acquired by the Washington Nationals from the New York Mets.
The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds had their benches clear after the final out of the Giants 3-0 victory.
The San Diego Padres could be sold as early as next week that could approach a record $3.5 billion.
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects a lot of trades during the 2026 NFL Draft.
CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - MARCH 13, 2026: José Barrero #96 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during the third inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 7, Durham Bulls (Rays) 2
Norfolk scored the only win on the farm last night. José Barrero led the charge with a pair of home runs and a triple. He finished 3-for-4 with four RBIs and four runs scored.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand played the Robin to Barrero’s Batman. Encarnacion-Strand finished 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored. Ryan Noda and Bryan Ramos added the only other Norfolk hits.
Tides starter Nestor German matched Barrero’s big day with 10 strikeouts on the mound. German allowed one run on three hits and one walk over 4.1 innings. He threw 49-of-81 pitches for strikes.
After allowing 30 runs yesterday during a doubleheader, Chesapeake limited New Hampshire to only 12 runs on Thursday. Neither team scored in the first four innings, but the Fisher Cats sprung for six runs in the fourth. Baysox starter Evan Yates recorded only one out in the inning. He ended the day with six earned runs on six hits and six walks.
Frederick Bencosme and Douglas Hodo III cut the lead in half with RBI singles in the fifth, and Bencosme trimmed the deficit to two by putting the ball in play in the eighth. Unfortunately, the Fisher Cats posted their second six-spot of the day in the bottom half of the inning. Eric Torres and Christian Herberholz posted zeros, but Ben Vespi allowed the game to get out of hand with six earned in the eighth.
Tavian Josenberger plated two with a double in the ninth.
High-A: Hudson Valley Renegades (Yankees) 5, Frederick Keys 2
Frederick starter Joseph Dzierwa took the loss after allowing three runs in five innings. Baltimore’s second round pick from 2025 surrendered a two-out, two-run single in the top of the first. He settled in with four scoreless innings, but he left after issuing a leadoff walk in the sixth. Dzierwa ended his day with only two hits allowed, but the four walks proved costly. Juan Rojas allowed the inherited runner to score.
Frederick struggled to get things going at the dish. Vance Honeycutt scored the team’s first run on a bizarre play in the fifth. With the bases empty, Honeycutt snuck a ball beyond a diving center fielder. Honeycutt slipped when rounding second, but the throw sailed over the third baseman’s head. Honeycutt came all the way around to score on a little league home run.
Honeycutt plated Ike Irish with a base hit in the bottom of the ninth.
Delmarva struck first when Stiven Martinez raced home on a wild pitch in the first, but Fredericksburg rattled off six straight runs. DJ Layton plated Martinez with a single in the sixth, but the Nationals tacked on two more to prevent things from getting interesting.
The Shorebirds managed only four hits in the game. Layton and Andrés Nolaya singled, Jordan Sanchez doubled, and Martinez tripled in the sixth.
Todd Kniebbe kept Fredericksburg off the board over the final 2.1 innings. Starter Brayan Orrantia allowed three earned over four innings, and Dalton Neuschwander coughed up five over 1.2 frames. Box scores
Friday’s Schedule
Norfolk: at Durham, 6:45 pm. Starter: Levi Wells (1-1, 1.26 ERA)
Chesapeake: at New Hampshire, 6:03 pm. Starter: Luis De León (1-1, 6.00 ERA)
Frederick: vs Hudson Valley, 7:00 pm. Starter: JT Quinn (0-0, 1.00 ERA)
Happy Friday, everyone. The Cubs are back home tonight and looking to keep the good times rolling, and with the struggling Mets coming to town, they might just get their wish. In the meantime, we’ll take a look at what’s happening around baseball. The top stories of the continuing trend of teams extending their breakout rookies, as the Tigers sign Kevin McGonigle to a monster eight-year extension worth $150 million. His (also rich) teammate, Tarik Skubal, teased McGonigle in a press conference, asking if the rookie would be treating the boys to dinner in Boston.
We also look at the thrilling resurgence of Mike Trout, who had an unreal series against the Yankees, and is reminding everyone of the Mike Trout of old, something I think all baseball fans can enjoy. And one Mariners reporter is getting a lot of heat online for trying to use AI to help her craft her questions.
There’s also an updated starting pitcher ranking to look at, while the Rockies are just trying to keep drones out of their airspace.
Marcus Semien | (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images)
Meet the Mets
The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon as they attempt to snap an alarming eight-game losing streak.
Apr 15, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Tanner Gordon delivers a pitch during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
While there were several surprises on the Opening Day roster for the Rockies in 2026, the biggest — and most disappointing in my opinion — was Tanner Gordon being optioned to Triple-A on March 17.
Even though Gordon’s numbers weren’t amazing on the surface in 2025, when he posted an ERA of 6.33 in 15 starts with a 1.50 WHIP in 75 .1 innings, his growth and potential were notable. He threw seven quality starts, including in five of his last seven starts with 62 strikeouts and a 6-8 record, which helped build his confidence. The Rockies went 7-8 when Gordon was on the mound, giving Colorado a .466 winning percentage compared to their .265 mark on the season.
Not only was Gordon’s performance in 2025 enough to be a strong contender for the starting rotation in 2026, but he then also continued to make a strong case in spring training. In Scottsdale, Gordon went 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in four appearances (three starts) with 12 strikeouts and only two walks in 11 innings, while also working on new pitches and refining his arsenal.
Regardless, Gordon started the season in Triple-A Albuquerque and continued to find success. In three starts, Gordon went 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 15 strikeouts and four walks in 16.1 innings. That’s why I was so thrilled to hear Gordon was called back up to the 26-man roster — where he belongs — on Tuesday.
Considering the early injuries to Jose Quintana and Kyle Freeland, and the early struggles of Michael Lorenzen and Ryan Feltner, the Rockies rotation needs help. Thus far, the Rockies bullpen has been impressive in long relief appearances from Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela, but having a four-man rotation is not a sustainable model for the Rockies. We know the bullpen will be asked to enter many games in the fifth and sixth innings, and they can’t be doing bullpen days every fifth game on top of that.
That’s why Gordon deserves a spot in the rotation — and not down the road, either. The Rockies need to put Gordon in the rotation now.
Gordon provided dominating evidence of why he belongs in the Big Leagues in his 2026 debut on Wednesday against the Houston Astros. When Quintana didn’t have his best stuff and was lucky to only give up three runs in 3.2 innings of work, the Rockies turned to Jaden Hill to finish the fourth and then Gordon to finish the game. The 29-year-old RHP held Houston’s high-powered offense to two hits in four scoreless innings. He walked one batter and struck out four, including three straight sent down swinging in the sixth inning.
When you dig deeper, Gordon’s performance is even more impressive. Forty of his 60 pitches were strikes, demonstrating the ability to hammer the strike zone, which is a core pitching pillar for Rockies pitching coach Alon Liechman. In addition, he mixed his pitches expertly, mainly relying on a four-seam fastball (45%), but sprinkling in his slider (30%), curveball (13%) and changeup (12%).
“I had a little bit more adrenaline coming out of the ‘pen,” Gordon told Jeremy Rakes of MLB.com. “Close ballgame. There’s a bunch of different factors. The fastball was feeling good. I was riding on that.”
After the game, Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer was pleased with Gordon’s debut.
“The vert was good. TG was awesome today. First time in the big leagues this year. That’s exactly what we saw in spring training. For him to carry it out like that in a big-time game like that — very impressive, and he just fits right in with the rest of the boys out there.”
The vert was indeed good.
Insanely good.
The vert, aka induced vertical break (IVB), which measures the vertical movement generated by a pitcher’s spin (backspin or topspin), excluding the effect of gravity, was working for Gordon. Baseball Savant’s graphics break it down nicely.
Gordon was getting 17.9 inches of rise, which is an increase from the 14.4 inches he averaged last year.
For comparison, Dodger pitcher Alex Vesia leads MLB in IVB with his four-seam fastball at 21.8 inches. Gordon is ranked No. 72, which is the best for Colorado (Quintana is next at No. 121 at 17 inches).
The movement helped Gordon strike out Joey Loperfido, Nick Allen and Brice Matthews on nearly identical four-seamers that were up and in. They all came on the rising four-seamer. Even though it’s a small sample size, Gordon registered a 47.4 Whiff% on his four-seamer and a 28.6 Whiff% with his slider. Gordon’s velocity didn’t overpower hitters, as his four-seam fastball averaged 94.6 mph, but the deception was palpable.
Having lost seven of their last eight games and heading into a homestand where the Rockies are hosting the Dodgers and Padres, the Colorado pitching staff needs help.
Tanner Gordon is an arm that could help deliver it.
The City Comets jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but the Isotopes rallied back with a four-run eighth to complete the comeback win. Vimael Machín hit two doubles and walked to drive in three runs, Blaine Crim hit two RBI singles, Adael Amador and Chad Stevens each added three hits, one run and one RBI and Drew Avans chipped in two hits and one run for Isotopes. Albuquerque totaled 14 hits. Gabriel Hughes had a rough start, giving up four runs on nine hits in three innings, but Patrick Weigel gave up only one run in the following 4.2 innings and Sammy Peralta put up a perfect 1.1 innings for the win.
Cole Messina hit a two-run homer, Andy Perez hit an RBI double and Dyan Jorge added an RBI single as the Yard Goats fought off a late comeback to win on Thursday night. Carlos Torres threw two scoreless innings to earn the win and Davison Palermo put up a scoreless ninth for the save in Hartford’s win.
In a back-and-forth contest, Vancouver came out on top with a four-run 10th inning to win on Thursday in extra innings. The Canadians scored first, taking a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. Spokane rallied back with a five-run sixth inning to take a 5-3 lead. In the frame, Jacob Humphrey hit a two-run double to start it off and the Indians tied it up when Tommy Hopfe scored on a wild pitch. Alan Espinal walked in a run to help Spokane take the lead and then Kelvin Hidalgo scored on a fielding error for an insurance run.
As it turns out, it wasn’t enough as Vancouver’s Carter Cunningham hit a two-run homer in the ninth to send the game to extra innings. That’s when things got worse and Tucker Toman hit a grand slam in the top of the 10th for the win. Max Belyeu hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th, but it wasn’t enough for another comeback.
Matt Klein hit the game-winning, RBI single in the top of the 10th, while Seth Clausen pitched a scoreless ninth for the win and Austin Emener struck out to in a perfect 10th to earn the save for the Grizzlies. Kyle Fossum and Derek Bernard each hit solo homers for Fresno. JB Middleton gave up two runs in five innings in the start for the Grizzlies and Ethan Cole added 3.2 scoreless innings before Clausen entered the game.
This isn’t your average Rockies story. Apparently, there were more than six drone sightings around Coors Field during Opening Day weekend against the Phillies. While no one has been arrested, the Federal Aviation Administration and FBI issued a warning to keep drones away from the stadium because they violate safety rules. The warning was issued as the Rockies are set to begin a seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Padres today.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MARCH 25: A general view of the field during the game between the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The San Francisco Giants are on the road again this weekend, so we’re going to do another temp check. Which is maybe not ideal timing after the week that was, but I feel like they could maybe benefit from the feedback of the fanbase at this point.
This team is not fun to watch and the season has only just barely begun. I’d like to say “small sample size” but this is just about exactly what I expected from them this year given the lack of any significant improvements over the off-season and the seemingly delusional way in which they view themselves as being competitive in a division that has long since left them behind.
As someone with tickets to a game next weekend, if it weren’t for the special event taking place at said game, I would absolutely be considering donating my tickets. It’s a lot to ask from fans to fork out the money for tickets, food, and (in the case of non-local fans) transportation and lodging to watch…this. Especially given the astronomical rise in prices for everything under the sun at the moment.
And listen, I’m not asking for the moon. I know they are highly unlikely to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers any time soon. And that’s okay. Not in my heart, but in my brain. I get that that is how it goes sometimes.
But I would ask that they at least be honest with the fans. Admit that they’re in a period of development or rebuilding or whatever, and then actually commit to that. I can respect that. I can even enjoy that. There is a lot of fun to be had in terrible baseball. I should know! I started covering this team in the second half of 2016 after all, when they were constantly discovering new and demoralizing ways to lose games.
But you know the expression “don’t spit on my leg and tell me it’s raining?” Well, don’t tell us you’re fielding a competitive baseball team with playoff ambitions and then send the circus out onto the field. It’s insulting to the intelligence of everyone involved and sucks any fun that could possibly be had out of the equation.
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants begin their three-game road series against the Washington Nationals this afternoon at 3:45 p.m. PT.
It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.
It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year. Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side. They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”. Good question.
Yet, teams are doing these deals. Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets. Not just one or two rogue groups, either. What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do? As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.
Some notes about contracts
Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:
Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).
Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract. I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing. I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac. I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.
The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market
One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market. It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical. A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons. Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:
Tier
Player
Avg $ per WAR
1
0-1 WAR
$6.75m
2
1-2 WAR
$8.5m
3
Over 2 WAR
$12.8m
Produced by VEB alumni Ben Clemons
Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb. First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal. $700m contract. 10 years. $70m AAV. If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded). Interesting. Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3. I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3.
Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract. $175m contract. 5 years. $35m AAV. Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded.
So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR? Seems backwards in a way, given the players. And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.
An alternative way to compare contracts
A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines).
Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:
Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV)
That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR. At least, that is what I’m proposing.
Some more about baseball economics – net present value
One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract. It’s not really $700m in today’s terms. A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s. When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m. That’s a bit different than $700m. Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates.
Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions
A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts. There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values. I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.
Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability. Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson. Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.
Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?
I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama. Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions. Approximately 7 per year. How many have occurred this year? Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal. Not exactly a stampede, huh?
What do Pre-Arb deals look like?
As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics. Almost like there is a playbook on this.
The most common age for signing is age 24.
Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars).
The usual baseball premiums apply. Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin. Relievers are the street sweepers.
Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers).
Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.
Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.
Interpreting the Chart
This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions. Each contract is a point on the chart. All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms. I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals). The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions.
The red points are the FA contracts. Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract. Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.
The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020. Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?
The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms.
What is with that arc drawn in the middle?
This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else. FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani. PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco. Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.
Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:
The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
The length of contracts, however, are comparable.
In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract. While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low. As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise.
What about inside the arc?
These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents. Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference.
When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:
The contracts inside the arc are not so unique. Almost cookie cutter.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
The length of FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter. This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.
What do these contracts accomplish?
For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player.
The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years. Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr. Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations. Then they lose the player to free agency. If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years). Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.
For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player. First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team. For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.
How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?
If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool. They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract. Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length. Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime. How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?
What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?
These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.
For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR. Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR. That is for a 4-5 WAR player. Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract. For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR. But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure. They did it with years.
The key is the AAV and length. $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable. What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10th or 20th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker. Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years.
The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani. We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline.
A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years. 2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m. Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player. The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more. We call it “upside”. The money guys call it “surplus value”. Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll. That’s what makes it smart.
For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.
First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years. The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player.
Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation. As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.
Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well. This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player. And yet again avoids the decline years.
When is it not smart to do this?
Pitchers. They break. See Stridor, Spencer.
Older players. If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Low ceiling players. The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial. They need to discern who really can reach star heights. There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star.
High risk players. Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial. A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.
Who plays on this field?
Interestingly, most teams participate. In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension. Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals.
The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently? They fit into 2 neat categories. Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets. The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins. The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.
Would they? Should they?
Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions. They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3rd and final pre-arb year. If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration. Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.
JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model. 23 years old. Projected star. Less than 1 year of service time. The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.
If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.
If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 16: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) stands on the mound after pitching eighth no-hit innings to start the ninth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians on April 16, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Guardians got a big opening series win vs. The Orioles last night, featuring fans getting excited about Parker Messick and worried about Cade Smith.
Here’s Zack Meisel’s recap of the no-hit bid from Messick. He extolled Austin Hedges’ work behind the plate:
Stephen Vogt talked a little about Cade’s struggles:
“I think Cades still not 100% where he needs to be, and he knows that… their at bats off him tonight were unbelievable”#Guardians manager Stephen Vogt on Cade Smith’s outing#GuardsBall x @WEWSpic.twitter.com/2PUq0oF93z
There are plenty of recent Stanley Cup winners in the field, such as the Vegas Golden Knights (2023), Colorado Avalanche (2022) and Tampa Bay Lightning (2020, 2021).
And there are teams that are back in the hunt after long absences, such as the Buffalo Sabres, Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins.
So who survives the four-round grind and gets to skate around the ice with the Stanley Cup in June? USA TODAY's Mike Brehm, Jace Evans and Kevin Skiver make their predictions:
Stanley Cup Final: Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup winner: Colorado Avalanche
Playoff MVP: Nathan MacKinnon
Yes, I know that the Presidents' Trophy winner rarely wins the Stanley Cup, but this Avalanche team is deep and has run the gauntlet before. The same applies to the Lightning. Both teams are coached by Stanley Cup winners who know how to push the right buttons. The Avalanche will prevail again in a rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
Jace Evans, USA TODAY
Stanley Cup Final: Montreal Canadiens vs. Edmonton Oilers
Stanley Cup winner: Edmonton Oilers
Playoff MVP: Connor McDavid
Canada, rejoice! Your drought will end! Or, I think it will, anyways. Yes, I am putting a lot of faith in the Connor Ingram (or Tristan Jarry!) Experience in net, but I am also putting my faith in Connor McDavid, the best player in the NHL. He just wrapped up his sixth scoring title and has led the playoffs in scoring three of the past four seasons. He's a proven postseason performer in the prime of his career. You could say the same for Leon Draisaitl, assuming he's on the verge of a return. The biggest factor for Edmonton, though, might be its potential postseason path — the Pacific Division road is the smoothest, on paper.
Kevin Skiver, USA TODAY
Stanley Cup Final: Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup winner: Dallas Stars
Playoff MVP: Mikko Rantanen
The Stars have been knocking on the door in the playoffs for a while, but something in the West has continued to hold them back. This year, they harness that experience and get over the hump to win the Stanley Cup, overcoming a Lightning team with a wealth of experience itself.
Since Montreal Canadiens’ sniper Cole Caufield climbed up the goal scorer list to eventually come short of catching up to Colorado Avalanche ace Nathan MacKinnon, who currently has 53 goals with one game to play, there have been a lot of comments about the nature of the Rocket Richard Trophy winner-to-be’s goals. Many have lamented the fact that the leading scorer has eight empty-netters to his name this season, while Caufield has none.
If empty netters were removed from the equation, the Habs’ leading goal scorer would be first in the league with 51 goals, followed by MacKinnon with 45 goals, and a pair of Dallas Stars forwards, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, who both have 44 goals.
While that’s an interesting stat, it just doesn’t matter. The Rocket Richard trophy was created to reward the league’s top scorer, the player who got the puck across the goal line the most times. Whichever way you look at it, that’s the way it’s defined in the NHL, and there had never been chatter about taking empty netters out of the equation before this season.
Whichever way you score a goal, it’s a goal, and it counts, as long as it’s in the game. The same cannot be said about the shootout, but that’s a whole different animal since it’s not during an actual game, but rather in what amounts to a one-on-one duel.
While an argument can be made about empty netters being easier to score, the same could probably be said about overtime goals, which are scored while playing three-on-three, which some would say is not proper hockey. Caufield leads the league in overtime goals this season with five, while MacKinnon has only one.
It’s easy to understand the Canadiens’ fanbase’s disappointment with the fact that Caufield was ultimately unable to win the Trophy that commemorates the career of one of the biggest names in Habs’ history, but the American is still young and in the early stages of his career. He’s 25 years old and has only played 368 NHL games so far; there are plenty more to come, and he won’t forget how to score goals. Patience, Canadiens’ fans, Caufield will be in the conversation for that trophy for years to come, and something tells me it’s only a matter of time before he captures it.
