Nikola Jokic: 'I still want to be a Nugget forever' but other changes coming to Denver

Whatever the Denver Nuggets are going to look like next season, they can't just run it back again and expect better results. After winning the NBA title in 2023, the Nuggets have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs, and on Thursday night, a shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves team eliminated them in the first round.

Whatever that team looks like, Nikola Jokic wants to be part of it. Here's his quote, via Anthony Slater of ESPN.

"I still want to be a Nugget forever."

Jokic is extension-eligible this summer. He is under contract for $59 million for next season, with a $62.8 million player option for the season after that. Jokic was directly asked if he would sign an extension this offseason. His response:

"I still want to be a Nugget forever."

Jokic averaged 25.8 points, 13.2 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game against Minnesota, nearly a triple-double. However, his 19.4% shooting from 3-point range and poor defense in the series were issues. That said, he's still a top-three player in the world, still an absolute franchise cornerstone.

Jokic's future is not in question, but a lot of other things are. Denver's moves last offseason — trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, locking up Christian Braun, bringing back Bruce Brown — combined with a healthy Jamal Murray led to the best offense in the league and a 54-win season (that's one more win than their championship season). However, for the third year in a row, regular-season success did not translate into playoff success, and the Nuggets need to address that.

A post by former Nuggets coach George Karl seemed to hit the nail on the head.

Denver's list of offseason issues starts with the fact that this team enters the summer already over the tax and first apron, and they are flirting with the second one. This is for an ownership group considered allergic to the tax (although they paid it the three seasons before this one). Along with that, the Nuggets' priorities are:

• A Jokic extension. Expect that to get done, Denver will offer the max and he will sign it. Jokic is not going anywhere.

• Re-sign Peyton Watson. He's a restricted free agent, but one the Lakers, Bulls and other teams are reportedly eyeing as someone they may try to poach. The Nuggets have the right to match any offer. That said, re-signing or matching an offer for Watson is going to be hard to do without moving above the second tax apron. There had been speculation in some circles that the Nuggets would not match a big offer from another team, but after he was clearly missed while out injured in these playoffs, can Denver afford not to match?

Re-signing free agents. Do the Nuggets bring back Tim Hardaway Jr., who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting and was critical for them this season? Also hitting the free agent market are Bruce Brown and Spencer Jones.

• Cameron Johnson extension? Do the Nuggets want to extend the deal of the two-way wing, set to make $23.1 million next season? If so, at what number?

There are bigger picture questions, too. Aaron Gordon is critical to this team's success. How can they lighten his load to keep him healthy? How do they add depth to the roster? Is David Adelman the right long-term coach? (Note, Jokic stuck up for Addelman after the Nuggets were eliminated.) It's going to be difficult to make trades because Denver has no first-round picks it can move in a deal.

It's going to be an interesting summer in Denver. The one sure thing is that Nikola Jokic isn't going anywhere.

Daily MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions May 1

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Start your weekend right with some MLB best bets, based on trading prices available at Polymarket (which allows fans coast-to-coast to participate in baseball action).\

Our expert MLB picks for May 1 have found value in the Jays and Cubbies winning, along with a pitcher's duel taking place in Tampa.

  • UPDATE: Added best bets for PHI/MIA, NYM/LAA, HOU/BOS

MLB expert picks for today

PickOdds
Josh Inglis Josh Inglis: TOR ML+100
Neil Parker Neil Parker: CHC ML-127
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: SF/TB u7.5+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

It might be scary backing a Patrick Corbin start, but the Toronto Blue Jays have already handled Simeon Woods Richardson this year, tagging him for five runs in just 12 outs. The familiarity factor leans toward the hitters in this spot.

Toronto’s lineup is getting healthier and can make up for Corbin, who has actually looked solid, allowing just four runs over his last three starts. If this game is decided late, the edge goes to the visitors — and the league’s best bullpen over the last seven days.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced this afternoon. His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8 hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA — checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.

With the Chicago Cubs on a 12-3 heater, while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Rays Under 7.5

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

Runs should be tough to come by tonight in Tampa with a lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup featuring two lineups that have struggled against southpaws. The San Francisco Giants have been especially bad, ranking 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has been sharp at home, while Robbie Ray is back in top form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in five of his six starts.

More ammo for an Under wager: The Giants' bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last 14 days.


More MLB best bets for today

PickOdds
Astros ML+108
Read analysis in our Astros vs. Red Sox predictions
Mets ML-125
Read analysis in our Mets vs. Angels predictions
Phillies ML-120
Read analysis in our Phillies vs. Marlins predictions
Yankees ML-175
Read analysis in our Orioles vs. Yankees predictions
Dodgers ML-167
Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Cardinals predictions
Reds ML+116
Read analysis in our Reds vs. Pirates predictions
Mariners ML-147
Read analysis in our Royals vs. Mariners predictions

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

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Red Sox Minor Lines: Another clutch home run for Franklin Arias

DUNEDIN, FL - MARCH 02: Boston Red Sox shortstop Franklin Arias (65) walks through the dugout with his helmet and bats during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays on March 2, 2026, at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Somerset Patriots 9, Portland Sea Dogs 6 (BOX)

Franklin Arias went four games without hitting a home run and I was starting to get concerned. That changed in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth on Thursday night, when Arias tied the Sea Dogs game at 6-6 on a two run bomb to center. 

My favorite rating on any FanGraphs page at this moment is Arias’ Game Power:

The 20 is for “present” Game Power, with 45 as “future”. This was Arias’ eighth home run of the season, in 20 games. I’d suggest that Fangraphs update that Present rating ASAP. 

Unfortunately, the Patriots (NYY) walked it off in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer by Coby Morales off of reliever Cooper Adams. Starter Patrick Halligan struck out six batters, allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 

On the hitting side, Arias and Nate Baez had two hits, and Brooks Brannon knocked in three runs. 

Worcester Red Sox 4, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 1) – BOX

The Woo Sox got solid pitching from starting pitcher Alec Gamboa, who struck out six over 5 ⅔ innings in game one on Thursday, beating the Red Wings (WAS). Jack Anderson, who may be needed again in Boston once his 15-day minors clock is up, gained his first save to close down the seven-inning affair. 

Matt Thaiss homered for Worcester, and Kristian Campbell was 1-for-2 with a walk, a run, and an RBI. 

Worcester Red Sox 7, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 2) – BOX

The Woo Sox completed the sweep in game two, thanks to home runs from Vinny Capra and Braiden Ward, accounting for the first two runs of the ballgame off of Red Wings starter Riley “The Great” Cornelio. Anthony Seigler knocked in two runs and was on base all four times in this one. 

It was more of a bullpen game for Worcester, with Devin Sweet, Angel Bastardo, and Wyatt Olds splitting the work. Bastardo picked up his second win, now throwing five shutout innings on the season. 

Hub City Spartanburgers 6, Greenville Drive 2 (BOX)

First round pick a year ago Kyson Witherspoon continued to struggle in his start on Thursday against Hub City (TEX). He walked five batters and hit another in 2 ⅔ innings of work, allowing four runs as his ERA jumped to 7.13 on the season. He struck out six batters but threw just 32 strikes on 66 pitches. 

The Drive had five hits on the day, with two of those coming from Justin Gonzales who was on base all five times he stepped to the plate, walking once, and being hit by two pitches. Yoeilin Cespedes continued his heater with two more hits, as well. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Wilson Warbirds 5 (BOX)

Salem trailed the Warbirds (MIL) 5 to 1 after six innings before the game flipped in a hurry. Two home runs from Starlyn Nunez, another from Ty Hodge, and a fourth from Luke Heyman accounted for nine unanswered runs to close the game. Nunez, Heyman, and Hodge all had three RBI on the day. Here’s the second of two bombs from Nunez:

All three runs that starter Madinson Frias allowed were unearned, and Ethan Walker went 5 ⅓ strong innings in relief to get the win, striking out nine. 

Pistons vs Magic Win Probability for Game 6 at Prediction Markets

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The Orlando Magic will look to advance to the second round for the first time since 2010 when they host the Detroit Pistons at the Kia Center tonight.

We break down Kalshi’s win probability markets and deliver some Pistons vs. Magic predictions to help guide your NBA picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Pistons vs Magic Game 6?

Pistons win probability:61% (-156)
Magic win probability:40% (+150)

Finishing the regular season with the No. 1 seed in the East, the Pistons are trading at 61¢ to stave off elimination and force a Game 7 back in the Motor City.

Our prediction:Magic to win

"Orlando entered the 2025-26 season seen by some as a possible Eastern Conference contender. Then injuries and frustrations knocked the Magic into the Play-In Tournament, while the Pistons surged to the top of the East. But perhaps this series represents a return to priors. And if so, Orlando should prevail in Game 6."

Read more in Douglas Farmer's full Pistons vs. Magic predictions.

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More Pistons vs Magic prediction markets

You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Pistons vs. Magic at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.

You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Pistons -4.5 spread means the Pistons will cover, while "No" means the Magic will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter).

Pistons vs Magic spread and total at prediction markets

OutcomeYesNo
Pistons -4.548¢ (+108)54¢ (-117)
Over 211.5 points47¢ (+113)54¢ (-117)

Our predictions:Pistons -4.5 — No

"Orlando is 4-1 against the spread in this series, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.1 points."

Other Pistons vs Magic prediction markets available

  • Paulo Banchero 25+ points (Yes: 46¢)
  • Desmond Bane 4+ threes (Yes: 25¢)
  • Jalen Duren 10+ rebounds (Yes: 45¢)

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts," which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Magic win tonight?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.

Why should I wager on Pistons vs Magic at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

  1. Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.

  2. Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.

  3. Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.

  4. Availability: Kalshi is available in 49 states (excluding Nevada) and D.C., including many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

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Malachi Moreno among 3 Wildcats invited to NBA Combine; Milan Momcilovic among other notables

Three former Kentucky Wildcats have received invites to the NBA Combine.

Malachi Moreno, Otega Oweh, and Jayden Quaintance are among 73 players who have been invited to the combine this year to work out in front of NBA scouts and front-office personnel.

The player most Kentucky fans will be watching closely is Moreno. Moreno has been penciled in as a returning starter and key piece for this Kentucky team next season, but if he impresses NBA personnel in the pre-draft process, those plans may not seem as solid as originally thought.

Moreno could benefit from another year in college as he continues to get stronger and improve his game, but no doubt fans will be keeping an eye on him in the pre-draft process.

There are a couple of other names of interest to Kentucky fans that have been invited to the combine.

Santa Clara forward Allen Graves, Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic, and Baylor forward Tounde Yessoufou were all invited to the combine. Those three players also entered the transfer portal, and are considered possibilities to return to college, although recent reports have indicated Yessoufou plans to remain in the draft.

It’s more likely than not that all three remain in the draft, but if any of those three decide to return to college, they will be highly coveted players in the transfer portal.

Pistons vs. Magic preview: Chance to force a Game 7

When the playoffs started a couple of weeks ago, I thought there was no way we would be looking at the possibility of a Game 7 in Round 1. If you told me it was the Pistons needing to win to force that Game 7, I would have called you crazy. However, that is the reality for the Pistons.

It is no longer a 7-game series, but a single-elimination tournament against the same team. No room for mistakes, no chance to redeem yourself if you have a bad game. Win and you have a chance to bring the series back home and send the Orlando Magic packing. Lose and you become one of the seven number one seeds to lose to the eight seed. You will enter a Summer full of questions and have to face the reality that this may have been your best shot at making the NBA Finals in a weaker East at the top.

The pressure is on the Pistons to perform. The Magic will once again be short-handed without Franz Wagner, but as they proved last game, they can still put up a fight without him.

Let’s get this series back home.

Game Vitals

Where: Kia Center in Orlando, FL
When: Friday, May 1 at 7 pm EST
Watch: Amazon Prime
Odds: Pistons (-3.5)

Analysis

As I mentioned above, the Orlando Magic will once again be without Franz Wagner due to the calf injury he suffered in Game 4. Given what has happened with players recently who have suffered calf injuries, I would suspect we would not see Franz in a potential game 7, but I guess that remains to be seen and ultimately may not matter if the Pistons aren’t ready to play tonight.

The Pistons injury report is not clean either as Tobias Harris is questionable with an ankle injury. I would assume that he plays given the circumstances, but if he does not play the Pistons will be facing an uphill battle offensively, as he has been their number 2 option throughout the series.

Luckily for the Pistons, the Magic had much less success slowing down Cade Cunningham without Franz Wagner’s size and strength. The Magic threw a slew of defenders at Cade in Game 5 and nobody had any success as he went off for a Pistons’ Franchise Record 45 points and did it on high efficiency. He was 13-of-23 from the field, 5-of-8 from beyond the arc, and 14-of-14 from the free throw line.

Cade has been successful scoring the ball throughout the series, but it came on poor 3-point shooting and low efficiency with a mind-numbing amount of turnovers. Cunningham still turned over the ball 6 times in Game 5, but they were not as damaging as the 24 turnovers he had over the previous 3 games since Orlando had less success with scoring off of them.

A noticeable change the Pistons made in Game 5 was allowing Ausar Thompson to play on the ball more while Cade Cunningham played off the ball. This allowed Cade to hunt mismatches, which he obviously had a lot of success with. The most important development from Thompson being on the ball is it allowed him to push the pace on rebounds, which scrambled Orlando’s defense and opened up the offense a bit, they also could not have Thompson’s man roam as much off ball to reek havoc in the passing lanes because they had to guard Thompson. When he is camped out in the corner, he is not a threat to shoot and you can get away with not guarding him since he won’t beat you from deep.

Some of the above is also likely due to the loss of Franz Wagner, who has done a fantastic job defending Cade Cunningham throughout the series. He is pretty much the only defender on Orlando’s roster that has the size, strength, and defensive chops to stay in front of Cade without needing much help.

The main reason why the Magic were able to keep Game 5 close and even almost steal it at the end is because of an out-of-body shooting night from Paolo Banchero. Banchero has a reputation as being a “playoff-riser,” but he rose to a level far beyond even his best playoff performance of his young career. He did absolutely everything for Orlando on offense. It started with drives to the basket that the Pistons could not stop. That lead to the Pistons bringing an extra defender to slow him down which opened up wide open 3s for the other players on the team who actually made them. Finally, in the 4th, Paolo was unconscious from 3 and many of them were pretty contested attempts.

It led to a 45% shooting night for the Magic from beyond the arc, which I don’t expect them to replicate given their 3-point shooting numbers on the season. If the Pistons are unable to find a way to slow down Paolo Banchero, the Magic have a shot at repeating what they did on Wednesday. It is one thing to overcome a shooting night like that when you are on your home floor, but it is another thing to try to do it on the road.

If Tobias Harris is unable to play, the Pistons may want to consider starting Isaiah Stewart at the 4 since he has the size and movement skills on the perimeter to at least slow down Paolo Banchero. It may lead to a disastrous night offensively, but I think that would be the case with anybody you start in place of Tobias Harris.

Game 5 was a thriller between two young superstars trying to will their team to the win and Game 6 likely has to have a similar formula. If the Pistons are forced to play without Tobias Harris, I have a hard time seeing how they can generate enough offense to win.

Jalen Duren probably had his best game of the series on Wednesday, but he still only scored 12 points on 6 shots and grabbed 9 rebounds. In theory, he should be the one to take on Tobias Harris’ scoring load if he cannot play, but he has given no reason to believe he can do that during this series.

Let’s hope Tobias Harris guts out the injury and the Pistons are able to steal a win on the road and bring it home for a Game 7.

Lineups

Detroit Pistons (2-3): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren

Orlando Magic (3-2): Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Jamal Cain, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr

Question of the Day

This one is pretty easy, will the Pistons force a Game 7?

Braves Biweekly: Atlanta looks even better in late April

Apr 29, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) celebrates with second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) after a walk-off two-run home run against the Detroit Tigers in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Past summaries:

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 10-3 since we last checked in. No team did better; the Yankees and Cubs matched this pace from April 16 through the end of the month. That’s a 125-win pace over a full season, which is absurd… but that’s what the Braves managed. The division lead increased from three games over the Marlins to 6.5 games (still over the Marlins).

Though the Braves were very successful, they didn’t exactly blow everyone out of the water on paper. Over this 13-game stretch, they finished tenth in MLB in position player value, including ninth in hitting value and inputs, eighth in defensive value, and 19th in pitching value. The defense remained a key aspect of their run prevention, as their pitching line in this span was 86/106/102 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Basically, they didn’t pitch that well, and they actually got a bit stung by HR/FB these two-ish weeks, but the run prevention ended up being on point anyway.

Going game-by-game and looking at pre-game odds, the Braves “should have” gone something like 7-6. They obviously overperformed that by a ton. Their most incredible win was the Matt Olson walkoff-aided victory in a JR Ritchie-Tarik Skubal matchup. They only had three losses, but they were actually pre-game favored in two of them, including the 11-4 walloping they suffered in Washington that snapped a six-game winning streak. Still, they’ve largely been streaking positively — the team now has four different win streaks of three or more games, while it’s had just one period where it lost consecutive games at all (a three-game losing streak at one point).

Over this two-week span, the Braves raised their estimated win total to 93, up by about three wins. Their playoff odds gained ten percentage points and now sit around 95 percent. Only the Cubs, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, and Yankees added more of the former, while only the Yankees, Cubs, Reds, and Athletics added more of the latter.

How are the Braves doing for the season?

Well, they now have MLB’s best record at 22-10. They’re up two in the win column over the next-closest contender, and one in the loss column. They now project to have baseball’s second-best record, have the second-highest odds of winning their division, and the third-highest odds of making the playoffs and winning the championship. Things are going well, basically. It hasn’t been a particularly tough schedule yet, but the Braves are still 22-10 when a game-by-game expectation would be 18-14, so they’re still doing better than probably anyone expected. They have the second-best expected record by both run differential and BaseRuns — and unlike earlier in the month, they’re no longer substantially underplaying both, now just -1 relative to run differential and even with their expected BaseRuns record.

They’re third in position player value and 12th in pitching value; their WAR-wins total through 32 games is 19, so that’s at least one sense in which they’re outplaying their production. But as you’ve borne witness to, this isn’t a lucky team rocketing to the top of the standings, but a team that’s producing and getting largely-commensurate rewards, with a bit of luck thrown in to compensate for the past two years of misfortune and/or misery. In terms of overall rankings:

  • The Braves are fourth in both wRC+ and xwOBA, and eighth in defensive value. The defense slipped a bit, the hitting didn’t.
  • They’re 12th in pitching value, but second in ERA- (barely, at that), while being 15th in xFIP-. As noted above, the pitching was notably worse later in April, and, at least right now, this is a team that is going to rely on its position players to both hit and catch the ball.

How are the hitters doing?

I’m continuing the irresponsibility of the grayshaded, per-600 PA column. Hitter-wise, the second half of April was driven by Michael Harris II’s insane, beyond-video-game-numbers line, along with legitimately good performance from Ozzie Albies (along with overperforming said performance by an insane amount), along with Olson and Drake Baldwin. No one else really helped all that much. The struggles of Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski were actively detrimental to the cause.

For the season as a whole, it’s that same quartet driving the proverbial bus, though Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith continue to maintain good lines largely based on what they did earlier in April. Matt Olson has played like an MVP from basically MVP-on; in addition to his actual production, he was fourth in MLB in WPA in April’s second half, and is fourth again for the month as a whole. The timing of Olson’s contributions might overshadow Drake Baldwin’s similar production for some, but not for us, right? That said, Olson is pretty clearly the Braves’ MVP for April — he had a huge game nearly half the time, and if the season ended today, he might very well be the NL MVP, as his 1.7 fWAR is the league’s highest (and fourth in MLB, with two other guys just fractions ahead of him and behind Yordan Alvarez’ 2.2).

The following chart is just for the second half of April. It was a month of justice in this regard. Harris’ insane two weeks made this chart stupid. More broadly — do you find this chart useful? I won’t include it if it doesn’t help relative to the table above.

Here’s the same chart, but for the month as a whole.

The only thing I’ll add to this is that Riley struggling is kinda brutal in and of itself, but when you combine that with his uncanny ability to draw the WPA vortex upon himself, well… not much has gone wrong for the Braves, but that definitely has. Mauricio Dubon is also having a WPA vortex-y month, where he’s come up what feels like an inordinate amount in key spots. He was getting lucky with bloops and such earlier, but his WPA has taken a beating over the last few weeks as they haven’t fallen in those same big spots.

How are the pitchers doing?

The pitching situation continues to be fluid, so sample sizes wreak havoc on the ability to say much of use here every two weeks.

Bryce Elder’s topline looks great because he’s not getting killed by HR/FB. That said, this was not a great two weeks of actual pitching for him, and unless you think he’s suddenly immune to getting blasted into a higher HR/FB again, you should prepare for his numbers to take a tumble. Chris Sale had a much more Sale-like two weeks compared to early April. Grant Holmes did not have a fun time in late April. He probably needs to improve fairly quickly in May before the Braves go in a different direction in the rotation and he fixes the team’s “we have no one we like to pitch longer-stint middle relief” issue that Didier Fuentes has been conscripted into managing for some reason.

I’m loathe to talk about even smaller-sample performances among relievers, but for April as a whole…

Reynaldo Lopez was removed from the rotation after not pitching well. We’ll see what he does with a different role. Jose Suarez is an enigma with a great FIP-, an okay xFIP-, and a horrid WPA. This will probably work itself out, by which I mean, “he will be removed from the roster.” I can see why the Braves were so interested in keeping him around, but I am guessing their patience will run out before he manages to get the consistency to not blow up the game with a spate of walks each time out, even if he’s striking out the side while doing so. Dylan Lee is f’n awesome and is barely outside the top five in reliever fWAR right now. I don’t know if this is in the cards, but with how much the Braves like to spend on relievers, maybe they could give him a modest extension rather than just dumping the same resources into someone else in a later offseason. Tyler Kinley continues to pitch in a weird way that warrants its own post, but it hasn’t hurt the team so far. He’s another thing that could have gone terribly and really ruined this excellent month for the team, but things have worked out for the best so far. Robert Suarez has not been an expensive reliever contract that’s blown up in their faces — he’s basically done what they were hoping for when giving him all that moola. And then there’s Aaron Bummer, who is really delivering on “May you get what you wish for” this year. He’s being used in high leverage! Unfortunately, he’s a complete mess in the early going. Maybe he’s just aged out of effectiveness. Maybe it’s related to him missing time with arm issues last year. Either way, it’s a cruel twist of fate.

See you in two weeks! Again, if you have stuff you do want to see in these, or stuff you don’t, let me know and I’ll think about it.

Baseball America projects first three draft picks for Tigers

ATLANTA, GA - JULY 13: Major League Baseball Robert D. Manfred announces Jordan Yost as the twenty-fourth overall pick by the Detroit Tigers during the 2025 MLB Draft presented by Nike at Coca-Cola Roxy on Sunday, July 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Another week, another Baseball America staff draft to cover. Why not? I love the draft, probably because it was the only chance for hope for much of the Al Avila years; even now, with the Detroit Tigers in first place, I can’t shake the habit. So here we are yet again.

A ‘Staff Draft’ is like a mock draft, but without any real information connecting specific players to specific teams, the analysts and writers at Baseball America just guess based on what organizations have tended to do in recent drafts, and who they like that fits the bill. For the Tigers, that typically means investing early draft picks in high schoolers up the middle, underscouted college pitchers, and maybe an additional underslot college option to balance the books. Look at 2023, when the Tigers selected Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Max Anderson, and Jaden Hamm with their first four picks. Or 2024, when they went Bryce Rainer, Owen Hall, Ethan Schiefelbein, and… well, you get the picture. If you’re an athletic up the middle defender or a raw pitcher to build up, look for Detroit to call your name.

With this most recent staff draft, BA covered Detroit’s first 3 picks: 22, 61, and 69. Their first and second picks are standard, while that third one comes in Competitive Balance Round B for being a smaller market team. For the whole draft, they have $9,165,100 in bonus pool money to spend and can exceed that total by 5% without any penalties besides a small financial tax. In addition, the Tigers will not receive any extra picks for Qualifying Offer compensation, so their bonus pool is relatively low. With those out of the way, let’s move onto the real selections.

22. Coleman Borthwick, HS RHP

Firstly, the staff mentioned Coleman Borthwick, an oversized pitcher out of South Walton High School in Florida’s panhandle. Borthwick is a bit of a throwback pick as a massive, hard-throwing righty listed at 6’5, 255 lbs; he certainly would fit right into a typical Dave Dombrowski draft. Beyond the measurables, Borthwick is pretty much what you’d expect. He throws up to 98 on his fastball, has a sharp slider he can usually locate on the corner, and generally bullies high schoolers in the zone. Right now, he’s repeating his delivery enough to track as a starter, but he would need to develop a changeup to really pop. Good thing the Tigers are typically good at finding some sort of changeup; speculatively, I’d assume the 6’5 guy would have hands big enough to create a solid splitter.

Borthwick has drawn some buzz for his offensive skills, too – he’s a big, strong power hitting corner guy – but his pitching seems to have taken off in 2026. Reports indicate teams are much more attracted to his arm than his bat. As with any 18 year old pick, there’s a lot of work to be done, but the goal would be to get him away from his Auburn commitment and onto a pro mound full time. The big frame, high velocity, and solid slider make for a strong foundation to build up from.

Wes Mendes, FSU LHP

Next we have Wes Mendes, a lefty from Florida State University. Mendes is a third year pitcher, having previously transferred from Ole Miss’ bullpen to FSU’s rotation for 2025 and 2026. Mendes is a lefty who sits around 91 with an uphill fastball that plays up in the zone and a plus changeup in the high 70s. His initial attempt at starting went very poorly as he built up to a full time workload, but this year he has posted a 2.43 ERA in a very hitter-friendly college league.

The continued positive development – from bullpen to bad starter to good starter – in only three years is a big arrow up for a lot of organizations. Seeing the aptitude for improvement early can often be a sign of further improvements or adaptations later down the road. FSU is in the ACC too, so this isn’t a product of jumping to a small school with poor competition, either; he’s facing real college hitters as the Friday-night starter for a D1 program. Whatever team grabs Mendes will be banking on three simple things: getting the fastball from the low to mid 90s, developing a breaking ball, and getting him ready for 150+ innings.

Luke Williams, HS SS/CF

Finally we have my favorite of the three names mentioned, Luke Williams. Williams is a hyper-athletic HS SS/CF from Pennsylvania. This sounds highly Tiger-ish. BA specifically mentions his 70-grade speed and 70-grade throwing arm as indicators he’ll be fine at either CF or SS, but doesn’t say much about his right handed stick. He’s listed at a fairly typical 6’0, 180 lbs, and likely has a bit of room to add some strength but nothing crazy. He reportedly has plus bat speed but missed time in 2025 with a serious ankle injury, so scouts have had a fairly limited timeframe to check out the hit tool. That’s especially notable because Pennsylvania isn’t known as a baseball hotspot and there’s no indication he played for any of the international teams that put someone like McGonigle on the map.

All that being said, when you get into the 60s of any draft, this is the type of bat I think you should be targeting. You’ve got a plus or double plus defender up the middle with strong hands, a quick bat, and room to grow into power. Unless he shows terrible plate discipline or no feel for the barrel when you see him in person, this feels like a risk worth taking. The Tigers are doing pretty well developing this type of player these days. Nobody mentions that in their April scouting reports, so for now I’m inclined to guess he’s about average for the level there and doesn’t stand out in either direction. That’s enough to start from.

If you’re reading this, you know as well as I do it’s April. Mock drafts the day before the draft get information wrong all the time, so don’t take anything written this early as gospel. Players will pop or bust, teams will do in-person negotiations, money will come into play, all that. For now, it’s better to view these names as representative of the options the team might be considering. Or might not. It’s April, after all.

The Mets travel to the City of Angels for a three-game series with the…Angels

Apr 17, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) enters the field before a game against the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images | William Liang-Imagn Images

The New York Mets (10-21) travel across the continent to face the Los Angeles Angels (12-20) for the start of (another) western swing. At this very moment, the Mets are having one of the three worst starts to a season in franchise history, being even more inept at baseball than the famously inept 1962 Mets, the owners (until very recently) of the worst record in baseball history. The big difference between 1962 and 2026, vibes wise, is that the ‘62 Mets weren’t expected to do much as an expansion club, and had a ‘lovable losers’ vibe that people accepted and embraced. The 2026 Mets are not that; this team was supposed to be a playoff contender. This fanbase was told not to worry as cornerstone players were sent elsewhere or spurned by lack of a offer. This team was supposed to be the first true vision of a still new front office.

Well, that’s not what we got. What we have is a collection of players that look less like a baseball team and more like a quartet of toddlers standing on each other’s shoulders trying to pass off as a baseball player. Whatever can be going wrong seems to be.

Before I go any father, I want to acknowledge that things feel pretty terrible right now, and so that makes even the slightest issue seem magnified to epic proportions. For instance, the same crowd that was laughing at the signing of Carl Edwards Jr. in the offseason was lamenting his being designated for assignment yesterday. If the key to this season’s success was Carl Edwards Jr., then we’ve all been guilty of atrocious miscalculations.

But there are real issues at play here for this team. While Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes have been quite good and Freddy Peralta more or less pitching to his career norms, the other two spots in the rotation have been atrocious. With Kodai Senga on the Injured List and David Peterson having a truly dreadful start in his first start in weeks, the Mets need to figure out the band end of their rotation. Help is on the way in the form of Christian Scott, who will start the first game of the series, but his first outing of the season saw him walk five batters in one and a third innings. Scott is better than that, and has been quite good in Triple-A this season, so perhaps he will stabilize one of those open spots.

But then there’s the bullpen. Aside from Brooks Raely, Huascar Brazobán, and Tobias Myers, everyone has been a mess. Sean Manaea and Craig Kimbrel are shells of their former selves, and both Luke Weaver and Devin Williams have looked shaky at best since coming over from the Yankees. Austin Warren has been very good in limited time, and hopefully he can stick with the club this time.

But the biggest issue remains the offense. It’s nice that MJ Melendez had a big day on Thursday, but that can’t be the strategy going forward. Players like Bo Bichette and Francisco Alvarez need to be consistently driving the ball, and that simply hasn’t happened yet. Brett Baty and/or Mark Vientos need to start producing on either side of the ball. Without Lindor, without Robert, and without Polanco, the lineup is thin already, but when everyone not named Soto is struggling, it is decimated.

The only good news for the Mets this weekend is that the Angels are a bad ball club. Losers of six straight and ten of their last 11, the Angels continue to be an even more extreme ‘little brother’ team to the Dodgers than the Mets are to the Yankees or White Sox to the Cubs. The Mets are also missing José Soriano, their best pitcher, and so that is a minor blessing as well.

For the Mets fans, this is also an opportunity to watch Mike Trout, undeniably one of the best players of his generation, and one whose talents have been wasted on a less than spotlighted team.

Friday, May 1: Christian Scott vs. Walbert Ureña, 9:38pm on PIX11

Scott (2026): 1.1 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 6.75 ERA, 15.13 FIP, 169 ERA-

Scott’s first 2026 Mets start was ugly: he faced ten batters and walked five of them. But there are reasons to see that as an isolated incident, the primary one being that it was his first start after Tommy John surgery on a big league mound. But in Triple-A, his strikeouts are there and his walk rate is nice and low. Without the first start nerves, far away from home, perhaps Scott will be able to settle in more tonight.

Ureña (2026): 11.1 IP, 13 K, 10 BB, 1 HR, 4.76 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 111 ERA-

It is rare that you see a pitcher give up six unearned runs, let alone in one inning, but that is exactly what Ureña did against the Astros in late March. Since then, he’s started two games and given up six earned runs total across the two, including a three and two-thirds innings start against the Royals where he walked five and gave up six hits.

Saturday, May 2: Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers, 9:38pm on SNY

McLean (2026): 35.1 IP, 45 K, 10 BB,  2 HR, 2.55 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 64 ERA-

Things are progressing nicely for McLean, even if the results have been a little more of a mixed bag than the Mets would like. Part of that is lack of run support; aside from the one start they won, the Mets have been outscored 21-9, and only nine of those runs were earned against McLean. But he’s doing the things he’s supposed to be doing as a young starter, and he hasn’t shown any regression or real issues just yet.

Detmers (2026): 33.2 IP, 36 K, 9 BB, 3 HR, 4.26 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 100 ERA-

Detmers had two great starts against the Mariners on April 3 where he tossed six and two-thirds scoreless innings and against Yankees on April 14 where he went seven innings, striking out nine and giving up just one run. Aside from that, it’s been a struggle for Detmers, who has given up at least three earned runs in every other start.

Sunday, May 3: Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz, 4:07pm on SNY

Holmes (2026): 36.0 IP, 25 K, 11 BB,  3 HR, 1.75 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 44 ERA-

Raise your hand if you thought Clay Holmes would be the most effective Mets’ starter and bWAR leader through April? If any of you have your hands up, you’re liars. But Holmes has been excellent so far this season, even if he’s never quite the most exciting or dominant pitcher to watch work.

Kochanowicz (2026): 35.0 IP, 24 K,  18 BB, 1 HR, 3.09 ERA, 3.76 FIP,  72 ERA-

The second best starter on the club, Jack Kochanowicz is walking too many folks but otherwise looking good for the Halos. After a rough first start, he’s only allowed more than two earned runs once, and has been consistently working into the sixth and seventh innings.

Cade Cavalli showing signs of the pitcher Washington Nationals fans dreamed of

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 23: Cade Cavalli #24 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on April 23, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For much of his professional career, Cade Cavalli was somewhat of a myth to Nationals fans. A 2020 1st round pick with loads of upside, blazing his way through the minor leagues with electrifying stuff. He got a taste of the bigs in 2022, but an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training kept him out of the spotlight and the field for the following 2+ seasons.

He fought his way back to Washington at the back end of 2025, posting decent statistics, but looking far from the prospect he once was. Many labeled him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026, but he struggled with putting hitters away in his first few outings.

However, at long last, Nats fans’ once-promised frontline starter may be knocking on the door.

Definite conclusions can’t be fully drawn from a 2-game sample, but Cavalli seems to have unlocked something. In appearances against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, the righty threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowed just 4 total runs, and struck out 10 hitters in back-to-back starts, something that has only been done by 4 other arms in Nationals’ history.

The stuff is ticking up, and Cavalli has simply looked in complete control of the game for much of the time. His strikeout rate has climbed from 18% in 2025 to to 27% in 2026, his HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has been lowered from .259 to .246.

Digging even deeper, his 3.82 ERA, which already registers as a decent mark, may also be discrediting just how effective Cavalli has become. To say that he’s gotten unlucky so far would be an understatement. His FIP is all the way down to a 2.82, an entire run below his ERA, and his BABIP has climbed to over .400, a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon.

Most of the issues that plagued the beginning of his 2026 campaign stemmed from not being able to miss bats and put away hitters. In the same fashion as just about every other one of his metrics, that has changed for the better, including during his latest start against the Mets, where he generated 18 whiffs, finishing 2nd among MLB starting pitchers in that regard on April 29th.

His 5-pitch mix has found a blend of timing, movement, and command that has given opposing lineups major struggles recently. If the underlying data doesn’t do it for you, just turn on his next start, because he certainly passes the eye test. Putting it bluntly, Cavalli looks like the future of the Nationals’ rotation.

With CJ Abrams and James Wood playing like the true backbone of their offense for the foreseeable future, it’s about time that the pitching staff produced a star of their own. For all intents and purposes, Nats fans, Cade Cavalli is your guy, and it’s time to embrace him.

Knicks 140, Hawks 89: “We witnessed Halley’s Comet”

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 30: Karl-Anthony Towns #32, Miles McBride #2 and Jose Alvarado #5 of the New York Knicks reacts to the score during the third quarter of a game against the Atlanta Hawks in Game Six of the First Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at State Farm Arena on April 30, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Most Knicks fans are younger than 65, meaning most have never seen this team win a championship. If you’re 40 or under, you missed Patrick Ewing. Any fan not yet old enough to vote wasn’t following Linsanity. But any Knick fan of any age who tuned in to last night’s rare bird of a Game 6 in Atlanta left with a brilliant feather in their cap: they witnessed the greatest single-game performance in franchise history — maybe league history.

An in-game graphic said the Knicks/Hawks game was one of 73,041 NBA games ever, regular-season and postseason. Winning in the most dominating fashion ever means accomplishing something that hasn’t happened 99.9999863091% of the time.

There were 14 unanswered points after the Hawks led 11-9, their last lead of the series and the season. That branched into a 17-2 burst by the visitors, who followed that up with with a 20-4 run. Zoom out a little and you’ll see all those separate rivulets of rampage merge into one long river flow, a.k.a. the Knicks outscoring the Hawks 67-14 over 16 first-half minutes.

The first thing Seth told me when I started writing recaps was not to drown them in numbers. Readers don’t go to the recap for stats; the box score’s got that covered. Numbers rarely, if ever, tell the story as truthfully and as colorfully as words.

Comrades: any one of a thousand numbers will tell you the story of last night. A few of the higher-quality gemstones:

  • Their 47-point halftime lead was the largest in playoff history.
  • Same with their 53-point lead after the third quarter.
  • Their biggest lead was 61, a playoff record in the play-by-play era (1996-97).
  • Their 140 points is a new franchise high.
  • OG Anunoby scored 26 in the first half. Atlanta didn’t score that many until the game was more than 20 minutes in.
  • With his second triple-double this week, Karl-Anthony Towns joined Walt Frazier as the only Knicks with multiple triple-doubles in the same postseason.
  • KAT was so in the groove playmaking that he didn’t score his first field goal until the Knicks were up 60. Not gonna research this, but I’m pretty sure that’s the first time in league history a team went up 60 before one of their future Hall of Famers had made a single basket.
  • The Hawks averaged 14.2 turnovers a game this season, a solid number (10th in the league). They committed 14 in the first half. If you ever wondered how you and your friends would look playing an NBA team, re-watch the first quarter last night. The Hawks didn’t just struggle to score. It was a moral victory when they even got a shot off, with most of their efforts tightly contested and involving way too much east-to-west action. Usually when one team bosses another, I imagine a varsity team schooling the JV squad. This was more like watching the Knicks play the JV.
  • Two players in the entire league averaged two steals a game this season: Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels and Detroit’s Ausar Thompson. By halftime, five Knicks already had multiple steals: OG with four, and KAT, Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and Jose Alvarado each with two.
  • Pacôme Djenon Dadiet score more points in eight minutes than two Atlanta starters (Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu) did all night.
  • 15 Knicks scored. None played more than 29 minutes.

I could go on, but there are decency laws.

I stopped cheering about halfway through the second quarter. Joy morphed into awe, and I mean awe in its original, terrified meaning — not scared, but aware that you are in the presence of something you didn’t think was real, or you never expected to encounter. Imagine a friend, a good friend, not a best friend but someone you always enjoyed, knocked on your door today after being dead 10 years. You’d pro’ly feel a kind of elation. But it’d def be stir-fried up with some WTFs. 

That’s how I felt last night. I don’t think I thought an NBA team could ever be up 60-19. Or up by 50-plus in the first half. And the effort never flagged. The Knicks were still flying around hustling up 60.

The one and only snag in the evening, or two, really, center on center Mitchell Robinson. He left for the locker room in the first half after landing awkwardly and hurting his ankle. Then he got elbowed in the chest by Daniels, who was wrapped up with Robinson and tried to throw him off, which is like me resenting that oak tree in front of me and trying to shove it out of my way. Mitch handled things well, I thought. Okongwu grabbed him from behind, which Richard Jefferson saw as a noble act of de-escalation; if you wanna turn the temperature down on the room, grab your man. Don’t be grabbing the other team.

Daniels — or maybe Jalen Johnson — must’ve said something, because after the initial shoves and whistles and swarming bodies came and went, Robinson felt the spirit move within him and the spirit was moving him back in the direction of his enemies. Given the league’s newfound (and grudgingly embraced) relaxed attitude in not suspending players for leaving the bench during altercations, one would hope with no punches thrown, both players ejected and no further shenanigans that Mitch will be available (and healthy) come Round 2.

Put a pin in these Hawks. They don’t figure to be going away anytime soon. They probably hit their ceiling this year, and they have reason to expect to keep moving on up next. They own the better of New Orleans and Milwaukee’s lottery pick. Their only rotation player not under contract or a team option next year is CJ McCollum, who Atlanta can likely bring back for closer to $20 million annually than the $30 million he made this year. Jonathan Kuminga, Mouhamed Gueye and Zaccharie Risacher all have team options. Jalen Johnson played all night like his team was down one. There’s something there.

As for what’s next for New York, we blessedly do not know. Won’t know till Saturday night, because somewhere out there some animal saw its shadow, and thus this spring there’s spring in Joel Embiid’s step. The heavily favored Celtics will face the Sixers in Game 7 instead of resting like our ‘bockers. It’s their bad luck to have encountered a foe more rarely seen in this world than the black mamba or the giant squid: a healthy 76ers. Can’t see Philly pulling it off. Then again, I didn’t think they could win Game 5 or 6.

Who would you rather play? What stood out to you last night? Did it change your expectations for the Knicks Quoth DavidLeebound22: “We witnessed Halley’s Comet.” When the solar eclipse hit a few years ago, it was the afternoon where I live. I will never forget the sound of alllllll of nature going silent when the sun disappeared, or the feeling it gave me. I felt the same last night. I may never live to see the Knicks win a ‘chip. But I’ve seen them play the game at the highest level possible, at the highest level possible. Last night was Mozart. It was Monk. It was indescribable.

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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Although the New York Yankees couldn’t sweep the Houston Astros on the road, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball.

With the Baltimore Orioles entering tonight's matchup facing plenty of pitching questions, we don’t expect that to change. 

Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-175)

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles, sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him.

The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball.

That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month.

I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Cade Povich's chase percentage grades in the 89th percentile, but the Yankees swing out of the zone just 25% of the time.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Will Warren continues to overachieve, sporting an expected ERA that’s a full run higher than his actual one, with his expected FIP telling the same story.

While I expect the Yankees to prevail, Warren will run into issues with his bottom-30th percentile hard-hit rate, and the Orioles should do their part to help plate a couple of runs in the Bronx tonight.

Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 11-9, +1.62 units
  • Over/Under bets: 12-9, +2.72 units

Orioles vs Yankees odds

  • Moneyline: Orioles +150 | Yankees -175
  • Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Orioles vs Yankees trend

New York has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info

LocationYankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
DateFriday, May 1, 2026
First pitch7:05 p.m. ET
TVMASN, YES
Orioles starting pitcherCade Povich
(1-0, 2.19 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcherWill Warren
(3-0, 2.59 ERA)

Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries

Orioles vs Yankees weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Royals vs Mariners Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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The surging Seattle Mariners will be looking to keep it rolling tonight as they welcome the Kansas City Royals to T-Mobile Park.

Seattle has won two straight, and my Royals vs. Mariners predictions are eyeing Bryan Woo to set the tone for another victory.

Read more for my MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Royals vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (-147)

The Seattle Mariners just took two out of three from the Minnesota Twins, winning back-to-back games to close out the series. While Bryan Woo is coming off a difficult start where he allowed seven earned runs, the righty has been dominant at home.

Across two outings in Seattle, Woo sports a 2.77 ERA, holding opponents to a .178 average. He owns a 3.86 ERA overall, and he’s coming up against a Kansas City Royals team that has been underwhelming offensively, averaging just 4.1 runs per game.

On the other side, Cole Ragans allowed seven earned runs in his last road start, and the lefty owns a 5.00 ERA overall. His road ERA balloons to 8.40, despite being dominant at home with an ERA under one. He’s held the M’s to a .194 average, but it’s a very small sample size.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Cole Ragans has a 6.06 FIP so far, the worst of his big league career.

Royals vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7 runs (-110)

While both of these teams rank 20th or worse in runs scored, Seattle, in particular, is producing more lately, scoring 12 runs across this two-game winning streak. Two of the last three meetings have also cashed the Over, and the M’s score more at home, averaging 4.67 runs.

The matchup clearly plays in their favor, too. Ragans has struggled immensely to find any consistency on the road, and Seattle is in a rhythm. Although Woo is wonderful at home, he has been a bit shaky lately, so I could see KC tagging him for a couple of runs as well.

Also, the Royals’ bullpen owns an atrocious 5.33 ERA. Seattle will win, and they will do the majority of the scoring.

Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets:9-9, -4.45 units
  • Over/Under bets:10-8, 0.48 units

Royals vs Mariners odds

  • Moneyline: Kansas City +124 | Seattle -137
  • Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-167) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+114) | Under 7.5 (-137)

Royals vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.

How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info

LocationT-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
DateFriday, May 1, 2026
First pitch9:45 p.m. ET
TVApple TV
Royals starting pitcherCole Ragans
(1-4, 5.00 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcherBryan Woo
(1-2, 3.86 ERA)

Royals vs Mariners latest injuries

Royals vs Mariners weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, May 1

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It's a busy Friday in Major League Baseball with 15 games on tap, and a litany of MLB player props to choose from.

We'll kick things off in the Mile High city, where Ozzie Albies looks to stay red-hot against a pitcher he's lit up regularly.

Read below for the rest of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Braves Ozzie Albies3+ total bases+140
Brewers Jacob Misiorowksi7+ strikeouts-136
Dodgers Andy Pages1+ doubles+250

Ozzie Albies 3+ total bases (+140)

Ozzie Albies has been tearing it up for the MLB-best Braves, with hits in 12 straight games, including picking up at least three total bases in five of his last seven games.

He has absolutely owned Rockies starter Jose Quintana, going 9-for-19. That's a .474 average, and a slugging percentage of 1.053, as he's homered off him three times, adding two doubles and four RBI.

There's not a better situation for him to keep raking.

  • Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: BravesVision, Rockies.TV

Jacob Misiorowksi 7+ strikeouts (-136)

You can chase some better juice, like +128 odds for 8+ strikeouts, but Jacob Misiorowski is facing the Nationals for the first time in his career, and that's always a factor to consider.

This still feels like a decent number and odds, considering the Brewers' righty has recorded at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts on the season.

Washington isn't exactly looking for great pitches. As a team, they're tied for 19th in team strikeouts per game at 8.72.

  • Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Nationals.TV

Andy Pages 1+ doubles (+250)

Andy Pages continues to hit well after a forgettable postseason run, 12th in the majors with a .321 average, as the Dodgers open a set with St. Louis on Friday.

He has hits in five of his last six games, including three games with at least a double. Pages has picked up at least a hit in two straight vs. the Cards, including a two-double game.

It's a nice time to take a flier on a double, especially with those nice +250 odds.

  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
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The numbers that defined the Royals in April

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 30: Vinnie Pasquantino #9 of the Kansas City Royals bats against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park on April 30, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images

April offered an early snapshot of who the Royals are – for better and worse. Mostly worse. The Royals ended the month tied for the fourth-worst record in baseball. While they’re not an expensive flaming dumpster fire like the Mets, Phillies, or Red Sox, the start is a huge disappointment for a team that had designs on making a run to the post-season.

How did the Royals get here? Here are the numbers that defined their April.

73

That was the Royals wRC+ with runners in scoring position (RISP), dead last in baseball. Overall, they hit .221/.316/.306 and had a 43.9 percent flyball rate, second-highest out of any team with RISP. Just 12.8 percent of Royals baserunners end up scoring, the sixth-lowest total in baseball. The bulk of the issues have come from the middle of the lineup, with expected run producers Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino among the worst in baseball in clutch situations. Both players had over 100 RBI last year, but Salvy is hitting just .135 with RISP this year, while Vinnie is hitting just .097.

This isn’t a new problem either, the Royals struggled to hit with runners on in the first half of last year. They improved significantly in the second half, but another slow start has fans wondering if the team needs to change their approach or even make a change in the hitting coach department.

13

Royals baserunners have made 13 Outs on the Bases so far this season, fourth-most in baseball. They’ve also been picked off six times, one shy of the league lead. Their success rate on steals is just 70 percent, the sixth-worst in baseball. Overall they’re in the middle of the league in Baserunning Runs, so I won’t go as far as to say they’re a terrible baserunning club. They have some speed, and they like to be aggressive, and when a team is struggling, you can understand trying to make something happen with your legs.

But for a team that struggles to score runs, they can ill-afford to give up baserunners. You can excuse some aggressiveness, but some of the gaffes seem to be the result of poor focus or preparation.

2.6

The Royals moved in the fences at the K this year to make it a more neutral park, and the team has responded by being a solid offensive team at home. They’re hitting .275/.364/.445 in the friendly confines of the K, for a 121 wRC+ that ranks as the fifth-best in baseball, and scoring a healthy 5.4 runs per game.

Road games have been an entirely different matter. The Royals are averaging just 2.6 runs-per-game on road trips, by far the worst in baseball. Salvy is hitting .161 on road trips. Isaac Collins must really miss Kansas City BBQ – he’s 1-for-32 on the road with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

It’s not like the Royals aren’t hitting home runs on the road. Instead, their poor hitting is due to hitting just .202 on the road, the worst in baseball. Maybe John Sherman is coddling them?

5.33

The Royals were the only team in baseball last year that did not lose a game they led going into the ninth inning. That streak ended in the second game of this year when closer Carlos Estévez coughed six runs in the ninth in a loss to the Braves. He was immediately shelved to investigate his velocity drop, and the bullpen has struggled ever since. The once-dominant Lucas Erceg has been inconsistent, and the back of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess. Adding injury to insult, the pitching depth has begun to be deplted with Stephen Kolek and Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the Injured List and Ryan Bergert out for the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Daniel Lynch IV has been a bright spot, and Nick Mears and Matt Strahm have looked good at times, so there is hope the bullpen can find its footing. But the team is 1-5 in one-run games so far, and the offense does not leave the bullpen much room for error.

3.5

Despite stumbling to a poor start, the Royals end the month just 3.5 games back of first place in a mediocre division. No team in the AL Central has a winning record. After a series in Seattle this weekend, the Royals will have a stretch of ten consecutive games against divisional foes, and a hot stretch could get them right back in the mix. Baseball is a marathon and there is still plenty of season left to be played. The Royals have been a very flawed team, but they still have one of the best players in baseball and some talented players that can turn things around. But they’ll need their May numbers to bloom far more than their April showers.