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In yesterday’s SB Nation Reacts survey, Brady posed the question, “Who will return more when they’re invariably traded? Robbie Ray or Luis Arraez?”

I have to say that after going through the comments section I was a surprised by the fan responses even before knowing the poll results. Most seem to think that Robbie Ray would bring back the most value in trade, and that seems to be an opinion formed by two tenets: (1) everyone needs pitching and (2) fans want Luis Arraez to stick around. That’s not an outlier opinion, of course. At the end of May, this site’s founder, Grant Brisbee, wrote for The Athletic that the Giants should extend Arraez.

A few days later, I ranked him as the Giants’ third-most valuable trade chip, but acknowledged that there might not be many teams where he’d be a great fit, limiting a potential return.

Then there’s the factor of what teams value more: offense or defense. Only 11 of the 30 teams have positive defense and offense at second base. Plus, the teams that could use a boost at second base aren’t playoff teams for the most part, and the ones that could be are actually . Only the Rays (+0.3 fWAR, 100 wRC+), but 20 of the 30 teams have at least average defense there. So, how many of those teams would seek an upgrade at the position?

I mention all this to say that there seems to be a strong emotional component when considering Luis Arraez. Not many fans would log on to FanDuel and bet that the Giants would win on a given day without him on the team, I suspect. He was the gamble Buster Posey took this offseason — along with bringing Ron Washington onto the coaching staff — and it has paid out more than what could’ve reasonably been expected. Arraez is simply the 8th-most valuable player in Major League Baseball right now. His 3.3 fWAR places him in this top 10:

10. Nick Kurtz, A’s: 3.3 fWAR
9. JJ Wetherholt, Cards: 3.3 fWAR
8. Luis Arraez, Giants: 3.3 fWAR
7. Corbin Carroll, Dbacks: 3.5 fWAR
6. Kevin McGonigle, Tigers: 3.5 fWAR
5. Otto Lopez, Marlins: 3.6 fWAR
4. Dillon Dingler, Tigers: 3.9 fWAR
3. Yordan Alvarez, Astros: 4.0 fWAR
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 4.6 fWAR
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs: 5.3 fWAR

This is a testament to his improved defense. His hitting line of .326/.361/.463 is just 89th (126 wRC+). According to FanGraphs, his +8.1 Defensive Runs Above Average is 11th-best in the sport. Not quite the best second baseman, though. JJ Wetherholt ranks first with +11.4 Defensive Runs Above Average. Also, by SABR’s Defensive Index (SDI), a component of the Gold Glove voting, he’s far less impressive: 0.9 SDI. Just 8th out of 14 qualifiers.

So, do fan emotions have it right? Is Arraez more valuable to the Giants on the roster than as a trade chip?

I’ll still say no.

Arraez has been traded twice in his career (in 2023 from the Twins to the Marlins, in 2024 from the Marlins to the Padres) for 7 total players. Yesterday, I looked at the history of trading ace-type pitchers at the deadline and came away with the feeling that the Giants would have a tough time moving a player not only because of the entertainment cost but because the odds of getting back a truly great trade package are slim. I don’t feel that’s the case here with Arraez.

Here are the players traded for Luis Arraez:
OF Byron Chourio (18 at the time, now 21, has not appeared in MLB)
INF Jose Salas (20 at the time, now 23, has not appeared in MLB)
SP Pablo Lopez (27 then, now 29, an All-Star for the Twins who has amassed 9.6 fWAR in 2+ seasons and 455 IP)
RP Woo-Suk Go (25 then, now 27, has not appeared in MLB, has not appeared in MLB)
OF Dillon Head (19 then, now 21, has not appeared in MLB) — #25 in Miami’s system
OF Jakob Marsee (23 then, now 25; 96 RC+, 2.1 fWAR in 585 PA across 2 seasons for Marlins)
OF Nathan Martorella (23 then, now 25, just released, has not appeared in MLB)

In both instances, the trading team wound up getting back a major leaguer. It worked out best for the Twins, of course, because Pablo Lopez has been great for their rotation and the Giants sorely need starting pitching, but the truth is that the Giants might be able to get a couple of arms for him, or at least some intriguing volume that has more on-paper promise than what happened in the Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval deals last season.

Another trade to think about was the Orioles trade of Manny Machado back in 2018. No, no, no — not saying that Luis Arraez is Manny Machado… he’s more like 75% of Manny Machado, and in that deal Baltimore made with the Dodgers, they got back five players for Machado’s expiring contract.

The Dodgers sent the then-#84 prospect of MLB Pipeline’s top 100, OF Yusniel Diaz, along with pitcher Dean Kremer (their #28 prospect), third baseman Rylan Bannon, and major leaguers Breyvic Valera and Zach Pop. Let’s round down on the 75% to say that the Giants could get three players, none who would be on MLB Pipeline’s top 100, but possibly one of whom would be a current major leaguer (or on a 40-man roster). The other two could be in the back half of the receiving team’s top 30.

Currently, the worst teams at second base that otherwise have playoff aspirations are:

• Tampa Bay, +0.1 fWAR (82 wRC+)
• Washington, +0.4 fWAR (63 WRC+)
• Athletics, +0.6 fWAR (94 wRC+)
• Minnesota (lol), +1.0 fWAR (97 wRC+)
• Philadelphia, +1.0 fWAR (81 wRC+)

Somehow, I doubt the Giants would trade with the Athletics for a deadline headline deal like this, but they might also be fine with their tick above average situation same as the Twins. Dave Dombrowski might want to do something to shakeup the Phils’ infield, as Bryson Stott has been worse than the league average offensively for basically his entire career and now he’s scuffling even more this season. And the Rays’ situation is so rough that it’s probably worth addressing at the deadline, too.

Would Tampa Bay do Joe Boyle, Dean Moss, and Jackson Baumeister? Is that too much? Or would Bobby Evans simply kill the deal by reminding Buster Posey of the Matt Duffy trade? Doubtful. How about Alex McFarlane, Gabe Craig, and Raylin Heredia from Philadelphia?

In any case, even on an expiring deal, because he put in the work to make him one of the top up the middle defenders in the sport to go with his elite contact skills, he’s likely to bring back a healthy return. However…

The wisdom of the crowd thinks the pitching’s the thing wherein Buster Posey will catch the most value for the team. This is why I’ve suggested that there’s more of a desire to keep Luis Arraez than there is to keep Ray that’s motivating this result.

One of the reasons why I look to previous trades is to get a sense of how the industry values a player. In Arraez’s case, although he’s older and the contract is less favorable to the acquiring team (lots of money for 50 or so games), he’s somehow better and at an important position. While Ray is a starting pitcher — which always carries value — who saved his season in June (5 starts, 33 IP, 1.36 ERA / 3.20 FIP), he’s never been traded for much.

Jerry Dipoto and Farhan Zaidi balanced their books back in 2024 and prior to that, the Diamondbacks got back Travis Bergen. Before that, he was part of a 3-team trade where the Tigers sent him to Arizona and before that the Nationals traded him to the Tigers for Doug Fister.

Last year, the Rangers sent three pitching prospects to the Diamondbacks for Merrill Kelly. Is that the Ray comp for this year’s deadline? Kohl Drake was their #5 prospect, Mitch Bratt their #9, and David Hagaman their #13. All three are now in Arizona’s top 15. Okay, Drake and Bratt are already on the 40-man, and Bratt has already debuted, so, you could make the case that this is the model.

Ray is younger than Kelly was at the time of the deal, but he also lacks Kelly’s numbers. In 2021, Robbie Ray pitched like Logan Webb does every day he roles out of bed (3.9 fWAR), but since then, in 501 innings, he’s amassed just 4.3 fWAR across five seasons. That’s not great, and it’s not helped by a 4.23 FIP (career: 4.11). He tends to walk guys (career 3.81 BB/9) and give up home runs (1.35 HR/9), but balances those out with strikeouts (10.64 K/9). This year, he’s not striking guys out so much (7.71) while the walks and homers remain consistent. That wasn’t the case with Merrill Kelly last season. At the time of the deal, he was striking guys out above his career average, walking guys around his career average, and allowing slightly fewer home runs than usually. Like Ray today, his deal would expire at season’s end. The Rangers figured they’d catch a guy during his last gasp and the deal worked out just okay (3-3 in 10 starts, a 4.23 ERA, +0.8 FWAR).

But, at the end of the day, either Robbie Ray (the people’s choice) or Luis Arraez will bring back at least a trio of prospects for the Giants. Figure at least one of those would be in the zone of Drew Gilbert or Blade Tidwell, but also consider that the Giants could actually get a bit more impact from that in the case of Luis Arraez, especially if the acquiring team is especially desperate (ahem, Philadelphia). But, yes, if you’re looking for volume, Robbie Ray is likely to bring back some quantity.

George Steinbrenner was many things. Above all, he was passionate. Passionate about his Yankees and, according to those who knew him as a Thoroughbred owner, equally passionate about horse racing. So it was no surprise that when he met a horse breeder and future Harness Racing Hall of Famer named John Cashman, the two hit it off. In 1986, Cashman leveraged the relationship to net a Yankees internship for his teenage son. That simple favor would be among the most consequential decisions in Steinbrenner’s 37 years at the helm of baseball’s most iconic franchise.

Brian McGuire Cashman
Born: July 3, 1967 (Rockville Centre, NY)
Yankees Tenure (as GM): 1998-present

Brian Cashman grew up in Washingtonville, NY as one of John and Nancy Cashman’s five kids. The young Brian excelled at baseball in high school at Georgetown Prep before starting for all four years at Catholic University of America. The same man who was introduced to the world at large as a scrawny, bespectacled wunderkind 10 years later was a top-notch leadoff hitter for the Division III university, setting school records in both hits and steals in a season.

Upon graduating, Cashman began a rapid rise through the Yankees’ organization. Despite his connection to Steinbrenner, it was the mercurial owner’s banishment in 1990 that accelerated his rise. Gene Michael, the baseball savant who stewarded the club in Steinbrenner’s absence, took a liking to the detail-oriented Cashman, promoting him all the way up to assistant general manager by 1992. “Brian knew everything going on,” Michael said of his protege. “Nothing slipped by.”

“He was a mentor to many people in this office,” Cashman would later say of the man everyone called “Stick.” “He did it with me and plenty others. If you were interested, he would give his time and expertise to try and train you. He was a remarkable individual who was impactful.”

Michael was replaced by Bob Watson before the 1996 season. After two seasons working under Steinbrenner, he resigned. On his way out, Watson recommended his 30-year-old assistant GM for the job. Whether due to that endorsement or Steinbrenner’s own read on his old buddy’s son, the Boss agreed to make Brian Cashman the second-youngest GM in MLB history.

There would be no training wheels for the big job. Cashman was handed the reins of a team with World Series aspirations and a star-studded roster, with Steinbrenner breathing down his neck. A couple of months into the ’98 season, the trigger-happy owner was having second thoughts and put out feelers to see if Michael would return and displace Cashman. “Brian can do it,” Michael reassured Steinbrenner. “Just give him time.”

Of course, that team would go down as one of the best in baseball history. A roster mostly assembled by Cashman’s predecessors won 114 games and a championship. In the ensuing years, which saw two more titles and another two pennants by 2003, Cashman made his mark, acquiring key contributors like Roger Clemens, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui while signing international prospects including Alfonso Soriano and Robinson Canó. He also developed a reputation for tenacity and resolve. “He and George (Steinbrenner) would have scream festivals for hours,” Jean Afterman said, the assistant GM of the Yankees. “I’d close my door but could hear them down the hall. Brian backs down from no one — that’s why George loved him.”

After a few lean years, a retooled roster including Alex Rodriguez as well as the newly signed CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira took home the Yankees’ 27th title in 2009. This time, while the Core Four of the ’90s dynasty remained, Cashman could take the lion’s share of the credit for compiling a roster that rose to the top.

The 17 years since that title have been a mixed bag. In 2010, Cashman famously entered into a very public salary negotiation with Derek Jeter in which he encouraged the captain to test free agency and reportedly indicated he’d rather have Troy Tulowitzki playing shortstop in New York. In addition to souring his relationship with the face of his team, that fracas — which resulted in a three-year, $51 million deal — turned much of the fanbase against their GM. It didn’t help that the Yankees failed to return to the World Series in the years that followed.

By 2016, with the wheels falling off, Cashman engaged in his first ever honest-to-goodness sell-off at the trading deadline. It would be a turning point, with the ’17 “Baby Bomber” Yankees making a rare underdog turn the following year. A young roster led by Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge and other homegrown talent developed under Cashman made a run all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS. And, while that 28th ring has remained elusive, the team has remained competitive in the interim, missing out on the playoffs only once and making it as far as the World Series in 2024.

Where does that leave Brian Cashman’s legacy? For one thing, with the longtime GM only turning 59, there’s no reason to believe that legacy is fully written yet. Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies GM who still appears to be at the top of his game, turns 70 this month.

When it comes to regular-season success, though, neither he nor any other active GM can approach Cashman, who’s overseen winning teams for each of his 28 seasons at the helm. The only other team without a losing season in the 2020s is the Dodgers, for whom Ned Colletti and Andrew Friedman have ably carried the torch since their last losing season in 2005. While the title draught in which the Yankees remain mired is a legitimate pain point, that much winning is not to be taken for granted; for an example of another big-budget team unable to put a consistently competitive product on the field, look no further than across town.

Cashman has also earned superlative acclaim from those who know the challenges of his job best. “Based on Brian’s accomplishments, I would make the argument that he is the greatest executive in the history of the sport,” longtime A’s GM Billy Beane said. “He has four championships and the longest tenure. It’s not unlike Tom Brady’s career, from an executive standpoint. He is the Tom Brady of GMs.”

Brian Sabean, a Cashman protege who went on to helm the Giants during three championship runs before returning to the Yankees front office, agreed. “Cash doesn’t get enough credit,’’ Sabean said. “If there was ever a Hall of Fame for executives in all of sports, he’s on top of the list. They understand what the expectations are (in New York), which are greater than everyone, and they keep on winning.”

In addition to his work in baseball operations, Cashman has a long track record of supporting his community. The Yankees-Stonewall initiative awards $50,000 in scholarships annually to graduating LGBTQ+ student leaders from each borough, something he’s called the “most meaningful work” of his career. He’s taken an active role in amplifying Spanish-language media, hosting an annual Hispanic Heritage Media Day. He also sticks his neck out both literally and figuratively while spending the night outside in a sleeping bag each winter, inviting mockery from his detractors to raise awareness for the nonprofit Covenant House. Cashman has also quietly built a singular legacy in elevating women in sports, including Afterman, Kim Ng (who Jeter would later hire as the first female GM in American male pro sports) and Rachel Balkovec, who he brought on as the first female manager of an affiliated team, the Low-A Tampa Tarpons.

Whatever your view of Cashman’s performance over his long career, his accomplishments speak for themselves, and his staying power in baseball’s toughest market has given him the chance to build on those achievements. While I’m sure not all of you will partake, I invite you to join me in wishing a happy 59th birthday to one of the most consequential figures in Yankees history.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year, we ask questions of the most plugged-in Kansas City Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Earlier this week, we asked who bore the most blame for the Royals becoming the “proud” owners of the American League’s worst record by the halfway point

As always, I find the results fascinating. To get this out of the way, the plurality blames the roster construction, but that is among the smallest pluralities I’ve ever seen at just 37%. Poor Management got 27% of the blame, poor coaching got 23%, and the players only took 13% of the blame.

I’m not surprised to see management so high, but when I gave you the choice to separate the coaching out from the managing, I wondered if everyone might decide, actually, the baserunning, hitting, and defense were a greater problem than the lineups and bullpen usage. It was close, but many of you still think this is somehow Matt Quatraro’s fault. I said this in 2023, and I’ll say it again now: You cannot blame a manager for bad bullpen decisions when there are no good ones to be made. But the lineup stuff was and continues to be frustrating. I get that they’re missing many of their projected starters, but Salvador Perez batting fifth or sixth every night despite a .568 OPS is just completely incomprehensible to me.

I agree with the plurality, though, that the biggest issue that has caused the downfall of the 2026 Royals is roster construction. Where I suspect I disagree with many of you, though, is that I believe the roster construction problems should be laid at the feet of John Sherman and the rest of the ownership team far more than General Manager J.J. Picollo.

The Royals made exactly two major league free agent signings before the season, adding Lane Thomas and Starling Marte to the roster. They also made trades to bring in Nick Mears, Isaac Collins, and Matt Strahm. Obviously, the trade additions haven’t worked out the way that anyone had hoped. I do feel obligated to point out that Collins has carried an OBP over .330 in every month this year. If the 2025 Royals had had an outfielder playing at that level last year, they might have made the postseason.

But, honestly, the free agent signings have been about as good as you could have hoped considering that they cost a combined $6 million. Thomas is slumping a bit right now while playing nearly every day since the injury to Kyle Isbel, but you paid for roughly half a Win Above Replacement, and he’s on pace to be worth that. Starling Marte has been almost as valuable at 1/5 the cost. The problem is that the Royals only had $7 million to spend on free agents.

Now, that absolutely begs the question of whether the Royals could have reallocated that Jonathan India arbitration money elsewhere. But that’s similar to what Rob Refsnyder and Cedric Mullins got. Would the Royals be better with either of those guys on the team? (The answer is no.) I also wonder if there are different rules in place for keeping guys versus adding them, because the Royals have forked out money to keep guys like India, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha.

I think Picollo’s front office and the pitching coaching staff have a lot of questions to ask themselves about why exactly nearly every reliever this team has added for the past three years has turned into a roiling inferno. But when Picollo was given significant money to spend in an offseason, he added Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, who have been key parts of the Royals being good, and Hunter Renfroe, who was really good in 2024 outside of April. Even last season’s addition of Carlos Estévez ended up working out really well for the club until the second year of the deal kicked in.

I’m not saying everyone outside of Sherman is blameless, but we’ve seen good results from all other aspects of the club when larger amounts of money have been involved. Even the extensions to Wacha and Lugo have mostly worked out. I know Lugo isn’t living up to hopes this year, but he also had pitched quite well for the first two months, and we can hope he will rebound after a rough June.

Anyway, good voting, everyone. Let me know what you think of these results in the comments!

These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.

The Cubs are the hottest team in MLB, having won 15 of their last 19, and the Cardinals, as you’ll see below, are on a skid. Here’s hoping the Cubs keep that skid going.

Standings update: The Reds did the Cubs a favor Thursday by defeating the Brewers, so the Cubs enter Friday’s action five games behind Milwaukee, six in the loss column. The Cubs also moved half a game ahead of the Phillies for the top wild-card spot when the Phillies lost to the Pirates on Thursday.

For more on the Cardinals, here’s Doc Holliday, manager of our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos.

• Cardinals have been on a downward freefall, losing eight of their last 13 games
• JJ Wetherholt has gone through a mini-slump, 6-for-34 since June 23. Had two hits Thursday in Atlanta, though.
• Jordan Walker hasn’t completely fallen off the wagon, but he’s cooled off from his first two months of the season. Thursday, Jordan hit his first home run since June 13.
• Matthew Liberatore has been so off that there are many who think he should go back to mid-inning relief and be taken out of the rotation
• Since the last time the Cards/Cubs played, Nolan Gorman has been sent to Triple-A Memphis – Blaze Jordan is now manning third base and has provided better offense than Gorman
• Dustin May skipped his last start due to back tightness – he tossed one of the best games of the year a couple weeks ago, but got shelled the next
• Michael McGreevy is still producing best consistent results among the five starters – Andre Pallante also several solid starts and Kyle Leahy was great today

• The consensus among a majority of the fanbase now is that the rebuild will continue and Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero are likely to be wearing other uniforms after the trade deadline. It’s also 50/50 if the Cardinals move first baseman Alec Burleson.

Fun facts

It only took playing 87 other games first, but at long last the Cubs will welcome the Cardinals to Wrigley Field for the first time beginning Friday.

The Cards won two of three games at St. Louis on May 29-31.

The Cubs swept three games at Wrigley to close out last season, after having taken two of three July 4-6. In thefirst of those games, they hit eight home runs, setting a team record they tied on Wednesday against the Padres.

The Cubs are 715-551 at home vs. the Cards, a winning percentage of .565. They are .545 at home vs. all other teams.

In 2,529 total games between the teams since 1892, when the Cardinals joined the National League from the American Association, the Cubs have won only 54 more games than the Cards, 1,282 to 1,228, while scoring just 19 more runs, 11,057 to 11,038.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: David Peterson, LHP (4-6, 5.86 ERA, 1.588 WHIP, 3.92 FIP overall; 1-0, 3.18 ERA, 0.882 WHIP, 4.70 FIP in one start with the Cubs) vs. Andre Pallante, RHP (9-5, 3.83 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 3.97 FIP)

Saturday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (5-6, 4.30 ERA, 1.078 WHIP, 4.68 FIP) vs. Kyle Leahy, RHP (6-4. 4.09 ERA, 1.475 WHIP, 4.19 FIP)

Sunday: Javier Assad, RHP (6-1, 4.53 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 5.24 FIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (4-5, 5.33 ERA, 1.548 WHIP, 5.11 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 3:05 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 7:08 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map, scroll down to the bottom of that link). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market. Announcers: Joe Davis, John Smoltz and Ken Rosenthal.

Sunday: 1:30 p.m. CT, streaming on Peacock (full national broadcast, no blackouts). Announcers: Alex Cohen, Mark Sweeney and Taylor McGregor.

Prediction

As noted above, the Cubs are hot and the Cardinals are not. That should be enough for the Cubs to win two of three here.

Up next

The Cubs have Monday off, then travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a three-game series beginning Tuesday evening.

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Dylan Cease and his AL-leading strikeout stuff headline the series opener in Seattle, and I’m riding the Toronto Blue Jays ace.

The Blue Jays open a weekend series in Seattle riding high after a nine-run Canada Day romp, and they hand the ball to Dylan Cease against the Seattle Mariners and Luis Castillo.

Cease has been overpowering lately, and a Mariners lineup that hasn’t seen much of him sets up my favorite play of the night.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, July 3 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions

Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet: Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts (+120)

Dylan Cease is a push away from what feels like one of the best pitching seasons in Toronto Blue Jays history. The right-hander has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, a triple-digit fastball, a wipeout breaking ball, and an AL-leading 128 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.

That 13.8 K/9 usually carries him over his strikeout number, and he’s punched out eight or more in seven of his last eight starts. The one thing that trips him up is command, like last time out against the Texas Rangers, when he walked five.

I’m confident the ace settles back in against a Seattle Mariners lineup that ranks 20th in the majors at 8.64 strikeouts per game and hasn’t seen much of him. 

Julio Rodriguez has just two career at-bats against Cease, and Josh Naylor owns a modest .640 OPS in 25 at-bats.

I’d play this until even money, so make sure you’re getting it at +100 or longer.

COVERS INTEL:  That strikeout surge is powered by a deadly slider (+11 run value, per Baseball Savant), against which opposing hitters own just a .159 average and .215 slugging.

Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 against the Mariners, including an epic seven-game ALCS last fall to reach the World Series, and they’re rolling off that Canada Day blowout. 

I like Over 7 total runs, too, backing Toronto to break through against Luis Castillo. 

And Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts anchors it, especially with the extra off day helping him work deeper and rein in his command.

Blue Jays vs Mariners SGP

• Over 7 
• Blue Jays moneyline
• Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Mariners home run pick: Sean Keys (+790)

Bet on Sean Keys and turn the ignition. The Blue Jays rookie announced his arrival with a massive three-run homer on Canada Day, giving the fan base a well-deserved jolt of energy.

We don’t have much of a sample through 12 MLB at-bats, but the 23-year-old went deep 21 times in 67 minor-league games before his call-up, so the pop is very real.

Keys draws a nice matchup against Mariners starter Castillo. His first big-league homer came on a hard, outside fastball from Freddy Peralta, and Castillo is another fastball-heavy arm. 

Play this one north of +700, and keep it to a quarter unit.

Blue Jays vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Blue Jays -130 | Mariners +110
• Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Mariners trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight games at T-Mobile Park, a friendly backdrop for another road win in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and game info

Blue Jays vs Mariners latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Mariners weather

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The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight consecutive games yet are not favored against a sub .500 Houston team.

My Rays vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks believe that is for good reason, and see value in backing the home side.

Who will win Rays vs Astros today: Houston Astros (-110)

Nick Martinezowns an unfathomably low 18.9% ground ball rateover the last 30 days. He can’t keep the ball on the ground, and he’s leaking oil as a result.

Martinez conceded at least three earned runs in four of five starts during that stretch.

The Houston Astros are equipped to exploit his struggles, ranking seventh in FB% and tied for 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching since June 1.

If Spencer Arrighetti stabilizes as he should (he owns a 9 ERA the past month despite a 3.8 xFIP), the Astros should win.

Back Houston to -120.

COVERS INTEL:Nick Martinez ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA, indicating he has not pitched nearly as well as his 2.66 ERA suggests.

Rays vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)

The Tampa Bay Rays have a potent offense but it lacks power, particularly on the road. No team has posted a lower ISO, or hit fewer home runs, in away games when facing right-handed pitching.

Arrighetti has struggled with the long ball, allowing three homers in back-to-back games. This is a spot where he should be able to limit power, as he’s done effectively for the majority of the season.

Martinez has allowed only 0.87 homers per nine innings in away games while walking just 4.2% of batters. Those outputs put a ceiling on opposing offenses.

Bet to -130.

Rays vs Astros weather

The Houston Astros play in a rarely opened dome so hot temperatures should have little to no impact on this game.

Rays vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Rays -110 | Astros -110
• Run line: Rays -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Rays vs Astros trend

Houston has hit the moneyline in 24 of the last 40 games (+7.90 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros.

How to watch Rays vs Astros and game info

Rays vs Astros latest injuries

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Major League Baseball announced today that Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield has been selected as the National League’s Rookie of the Month for June.

The award is especially notable given that Rumfield also earned the accolade in May. He is the first player to win National League Rookie of the Month in consecutive months since Atlanta’s Michael Harris II in August and September 2022.

The rookie has had a remarkable season. He appeared in 26 games for the Rockies in June. During that time, he slashed .316/.400/.589, including 14 runs scored, nine doubles, one triple, five home runs, and 17 RBI. In addition, he led all qualified National League rookies in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles (9), extra-base hits (15) and total bases (56). Rumfield ranked among National League rookies in hits (30, T-1st), home runs (T-1st), walks (12, 2nd) and runs scored (14, T-3rd).

His 2026 slashline is .293/.373/.487.

Rumfield’s defensive work has been equally stellar. In 594.0 innings at first base, he has committed only two errors. He currently has 6 DRS and 2 OAA. His DRS total is the best in MLB among first basemen.

In May, Rumfield became the ninth Rockies player to receive the Rookie of the Month Award. In doing this, he joins Nolan Jones (September/October 2023), Antonio Senzatela (April 2017), Trevor Story (April 2016), Ian Stewart (July 2008), Troy Tulowitzki (August 2007), Garrett Atkins (June 2005), Clint Barmes (April 2005), and Jason Jennings (August 2002).

Rumfield came to the Rockies in January in a trade with the New York Yankees that sent RHP Angel Chivilli to the Bronx.

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2026 MLB Draft Preview: Andrew Williamson scouting report.

The 2026 is less than two weeks away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson.

Andrew Williamson is a 6’, 195 lb. lefthanded hitting outfielder for Central Florida. Williamson was undrafted in 2023 coming out of St. Petersburg, Florida. He turns 21 later this month.

Williamson is a well-rounded player who has a good but not great hit tool. There are some concerns about him having a hitch at the plate that could lead to timing issues in the pros, though its not seemed to have affected him so far as an amateur. BA says he makes good swing decisions but has some pitch recognition issues that will need to be improved upon. Despite not being especially big, Williamson has good power, particularly to the pull side. He’s described by MLB Pipeline as having a quick swing with quality bat speed.

Williamson played center field as a freshman, but has been in right field primarily since then. He probably ends in right field long-term, though one would think he’ll get a chance to play center as a professional until he shows that he can’t handle the position. He’s got good speed and has had a lot of success as a baserunner in college.

As a freshman, he slashed .258/.333/.411 in 176 plate appearances over 50 games for Central Florida. He was the MVP of the wood bat Cal Ripken League that summer, when he slashed .462/.546/.906 with 9 homers in 29 games. He carried that momentum into his sophomore year, when he slashed .352/.448/.662 in 261 plate appearances over 55 games, with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases, striking out 36 times against 34 walks. After a solid 15 game stint in the Cape Cod League last summer, Williamson slashed .322/.422/.645 for Central Florida this season, wirh 41 walks against 47 Ks and 16 home runs.

Baseball America has Williamson at #47 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Williamson at #52 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Williamson at #43 on his top 150 list. Keith Law does not have Williamson on his board. Fangraphs does not have Williamson on their board. Baseball Prospectus does not have Williamson on their top 30 draft board.

Williamson, the nephew of former major leaguer Sean Rodriguez, doesn’t have a real weakness in his game, but also doesn’t have a loud carrying tool, with his tools all grading out at around 50 or 55 (though BA gives his hit tool a 45). If the concerns about his swing and pitch recognition get addressed, he’s a potentially solid major league corner outfielder. If they don’t, is other tools likely aren’t good enough to make him major league regular material.

With a track record of performance in the Big 12, as well as success in wood bat leagues, he seems a fairly safe pick in the second or third rounds, and he’s someone you could see the Rangers taking in that range.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Justin Lebron

Cameron Flukey

Derek Curiel

Hunter Dietz

Logan Hughes

Carson Wiggins

Peyton Bonds

Ace Reese

Sawyer Strosnider

Gio Rojas

Chris Rembert

Jack Natili

For many Cincinnati Reds fans, the breakout we saw during Matt McLain’s half-season of excellence in 2023 still resonates quite loudly. It’s hard not to, really – he was a 1st round pick of the club and during his first shot at the big leagues looked like he was an immediate success story, posting a 127 OPS+ with both power and speed while manning a premium defensive position.

In many ways, he was emblematic of a time when it looked – if you squinted a bit – like the Reds knew exactly what they were doing, and it was beginning to pay off in spades.

Things went south quickly, however. That 2023 season was cut short due to injury. The 2024 season was lost altogether due to injury(s). In the two seasons since coming back from major shoulder surgery (and oblique problems likely due to his aggressive swing), McLain has posted just a 75 OPS+ in nearly 900 PA.

He’s also going to turn 27 years old in just a month, and this week the Reds began trying to shoehorn him into playing CF for the first real time since his days at UCLA.

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of the guy you were supposed to consider the everyday 2B, the player who has been given chance after chance to cement both that role and a role atop the batting order by manager Terry Francona since he arrived on the scene last year. And what we’ve seen lately suggests that the time of McLain as the regular 2B may already be on the outs with prospect Edwin Arroyo gradually settling in there himself.

We asked you this week which of McLain or Arroyo should be given the job as the team’s primary 2B for the rest of the season, and you responded in overwhelming fashion. 82% of you think it should be Arroyo who gets to show what he can do there to build upon the 82 PA of 67 OPS+ work he’s put in so far while getting his feet wet at the big league level.

I don’t think it’s time to write off McLain altogether, at least not yet. He’s been passable against LHP so far this season (.749 OPS) and we know he’s a good defender at both 2B and SS. Heck, if he shows he can figure out how to play a little CF again, too, he’s a wonderful depth piece to have as Francona mixes and matches his lineups and mid-game changes.

However, if the Reds are going to once again stay mired in last place in the division and out of the Wild Card race, it likely behooves the team’s front office to find out what they’ve got in Arroyo as soon as they can, and so far there’s been glimpses that the 22 year old has some chops that may make him a pretty good player for awhile in Cincinnati. If the team’s going to hit a reset button of any size, seeing whether he can cut it as a cornerstone piece now makes a lot more sense than continuing to give an older player another dozen chances to rediscover form.

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The San Diego Padres hope to snap a six-game losing streak and gain some ground in the NL West race as they face the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving San Diego (+223) much of a chance against L.A. (-233) with superstar Shohei Ohtani on the bump, but my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions believe the Ohtani tax is too high. 

Read on for my full MLB picks for Friday, July 3.

Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres (+215)

These odds are inflated since the San Diego Padres have surrendered a whopping 35 runs in their last two games alone, bringing their losing streak to six, and they now have to face Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (1.58 ERA).

However, that doesn't account for the fact that San Diego has been red-hot at the plate, posting a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Ohtani's great, but this is a premium price for someone whose underlying profile (3.33 xFIP, 3.42 botERA) points toward some regression.

I'd play the underdog down to +210.

COVERS INTEL: Shohei Ohtani has shown signs of mortality in his last three starts, surrendering nine earned runs. In that time frame, the Padres have eight different position players with a wRC+ above 130. 

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

Michael King induces soft contact and keeps the ball on the ground, ranking in the 73rd percentile or better in ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. That’ll help him avoid a fireworks show, and the Padres have hit the Under in 13 of his 17 starts.

Despite Ohtani showing some signs of weakness lately, he has the second-lowest ERA in the Big Leagues. Naturally, L.A. has played in low-scoring games with him on the bump, going 3-10 O/U. 

With two effective starting pitchers on the bump, that’s enough to counteract two in-form lineups. 

Padres vs Dodgers weather

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at Chavez Ravine, cooling into the 60s as the game progresses. Light winds shouldn't play much of a factor for either offense. 

Padres vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Padres +215 | Dodgers -240
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)

Padres vs Dodgers trend

San Diego is 4-13 O/U in Michael King’s starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info

Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries

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