There’s an old saying that we’ve all heard plenty of times throughout our lives:
“Be careful what you wish for.”
In sports, the saying can be applied to preferential matchups in the postseason. While there’s no such thing as being able to choose your opponent (yet), there have been situations where teams try to position themselves in such a way to get a favorable first-round matchup.
In 2024, the Eastern Conference was tightly packed, so much so that essentially nothing was solidified ahead of Game 82. To add further intrigue, a healthy Sixers team and the always-annoying Miami Heat were set to fight in the 7-8 play-in game, making the No. 2 seed a potential landmine with seemingly softer opponents in Indiana or Orlando awaiting the No. 3 and No. 4 seed.
As such, the Cavaliers mailed it in on the final day of the season, content with drawing the Magic in the first round. The strategy worked, as Cleveland won that series in seven games, but they then ran into a brick wall in the eventual champion Celtics. As we all remember, the Knicks won an overtime game with the Bulls to take the No. 2 seed, take on the challenge of the healthy Sixers, and win that series in six games.
You should never intentionally try to get the best possible matchup. Tempting the basketball gods is never a good idea, so regardless of how things look beneath the Knicks, they should be solely focused on getting the best possible seed, sitting a game back of the Boston Celtics for the No. 2 seed with eight to go.
But there are big, stylistic differences between the glut of six teams that could potentially match up with the Knicks. As they jockey for position, it’s only fair to wonder what would be the best path for the Knicks for a smooth pass through the first round and onto greener pastures.
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 41-32
Season series: 1-1
Record vs top-5 teams: 3-9
How hot are they? Blisteringly hot
Our old foes seemed to have realized Trae Young was the problem and have surged since trading him to be Washington’s new tank commander.
But even immediately after formally handing the keys to Jalen Johnson, the Hawks were 26-30 at the all-star break and looked like a lock to be playing in the 9-10 play-in game. Of course, they’ve since gone a blistering 15-2, although most of these wins have been against tanking or injured teams.
Both season series meetings came within a week of each other around the New Year, with the Knicks surviving a torrid comeback effort in late December in Atlanta before getting trounced at MSG in early January during the 11-game stretch of hell.
Johnson is a wrecking ball who could easily average a triple-double in a playoff series. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is enjoying a great breakout season that should earn him Most Improved Player consideration. They’re a great shooting team that’s red hot. They have several long, lanky role players that will make Jalen Brunson’s life hell over a seven-game series. They have the scoring. Why would you want to face them?
Well, some of their shooting is deceiving. Luke Kennard and Vit Krejci are gone, and Jonathan Kuminga is shooting at a baffling 48% clip from downtown. The active roster threats are NAW, Keaton Wallace, and Asa Newell. You won’t be threatened much by Johnson (34.9%), CJ McCollum (34.7%), and especially Dyson Daniels (15.7%). Towns dominated Onyeka Okongwu in their only head-to-head matchup this season, and with the poise he’s been playing with lately? I’d count on it again.
They’d be a fine opponent, frisky, but not the most dangerous. Big risk-reward here. On one hand, you have to deal with another 2o21 if you lose, but if you win, you can effectively erase it.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 40-32
Season series: 0-4
Record vs top-5 teams: 2-11
How hot are they? Very lukewarm
The Raptors are below .500 since their 14-5 start, which is the only thing keeping them out of the play-in at this point. We’ve seen them four times this season, and each time, the Knicks punked them. Sometimes they keep it close for a quarter, half, or even 40+ minutes, but they’ve given up a massive run to break the game open in all four meetings, going through stretches of putrid basketball.
Aside from stunning OKC on the road in January and a recent win against Detroit, they’ve been awful against teams with a better record. Their third-best win might be against a pre-Harden Cavaliers squad.
Their offense is completely reliant on Brandon Ingram, who’s cooked the Knicks all season long. Yet, in multiple games, he’s gone off early and been muted in the second half. Scottie Barnes has made tremendous strides defensively, but the offensive leap into superstardom has eluded him. OAKAAK’s RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley occasionally show brilliant flashes, but have been inconsistent.
If the Raptors are going to be competitive in the playoffs, they’ll do it on the backs of their defense, which has carried them at times this season. Rewatch the first seven-ish minutes of the last Knicks-Raptors game, and you’ll see what I mean. When they want to get nasty, they can get nasty.
Their downfall is multi-faceted. They don’t have enough shooting (23rd in 3PT%), they’re very reliant on Ingram, and maybe the most damning of all, rebounding. Jakob Poeltl’s return has muted some concerns, but he’s the only player on the roster taller than 6’9”. In every matchup with the Knicks this season, it’s been a bloodbath on the boards, and if these two teams square off, it’ll be the Mitchell Robinson show.
On paper, this is who you want to face, but again, be careful what you wish for. We’ve seen crazier things.
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 40-33
Season series: 2-2
Record vs top-5 teams: 4-10
How hot are they? Cold, but slowly warming
How do you judge the Sixers? They’re the most volatile team in sports.
When at full health, they’re as scary as they were in 2024, when teams tried to avoid facing them. Joel Embiid has looked close to MVP form when he’s been on the court, Tyrese Maxey is a full-blown star, and Paul George is back from suspension and playing team basketball. They have a great collection of role players that include OAKAAK Quentin Grimes, rookie phenom VJ Edgecombe, and sudden corner-3 aficionado Andre Drummond.
So why are they in the play-in? Well, they keep getting hurt.
Embiid has missed 39 games, and just when it felt like he was getting back in the groove after missing a month early on, knee soreness and an oblique issue cost him 16 of the first 18 after the all-star break. Maxey is recovering from a finger injury that might cost him All-NBA. George was suspended for PEDs. There are nights where Grimes is the first option, like last March.
To evaluate the Sixers, you have to see how healthy they are. The last time Embiid played in the playoffs, he barely made it through a six-game series with a re-injured knee and Bell’s palsy, and then essentially missed all of the next season. The Sixers remain a trainwreck without him, and he’s only played in five consecutive games once all season. Depending on how he feels, they could be a pushover or a force to be reckoned with.
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 39-34
Season series: 2-1
Record vs top-5 teams: 4-6
How hot are they? Hypernova
Where did this even come from? The first two times we saw Charlotte, they were the same mess of young players who couldn’t put it all together as they stumbled to a 16-28 start.
Since then? They’re 23-6. They’ve been pummeling good team after good team and made yet another statement with a dominant effort against the Knicks on Thursday night. Their average margin of victory is literally the greatest in NBA history!!!
I haven’t watched them much, so last night was an eye-opener. They have such effortless shooting ability from almost everyone on the roster. The finally healthy LaMelo Ball is the head of the snake who handles the playmaking and gets the ball to Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller for open jumpers. Their offense is a well-oiled machine that’s so hard to stop because they’re good at everything. Since they turned their season around, they have a 121.5 offensive rating, best in basketball.
The defense has been surprisingly stout as well, ranking fifth in that span, and it makes sense. Between Miller, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabate, Grant Williams, Ryan Kalkbrenner, etc, you have a lot of guys who can defend. They also don’t have any size disadvantages with Knueppel and Ball being taller than your average backcourt.
Speaking of size… I’ve never seen a team dominate the Knicks on the boards like they did last night. Since January 21, the Hornets have led the NBA with a 37 OREB% and 55.1% rebounding share. They effectively muted Robinson all night, and their size and length made KAT uncomfortable. It’s jarring how quickly Charles Lee has done this.
Knicks should want no part of them early. Nobody should. If Detroit’s struggles from deep continue in the playoffs and they draw the Hornets, they’re in serious danger.
Miami Heat
Record: 39-34
Season series: 2-2
Record vs top-5 teams: 4-6
How hot are they? Cooling off
Miami won 10 of 12 around the all-star break, but then lost five in a row to suddenly be in danger of playing in the 9-10 game. Still, they’re more than close enough to make a run to face the Knicks with their… 83-point scorer? I keep forgetting that it actually did happen.
Miami’s issue has been getting everyone healthy at the same time, but they seem to have Tyler Herro finally in a groove alongside Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo. Erik Spoelstra switched the formula for this season and has turned the Heat into a high-paced cheetah that sees most of their games turn into shootouts.
Despite this, they’re fifth in defensive rating, still employing the same nastiness as ever, while wearing teams out in transition. They play clean basketball, they can shoot, they have enough avenues to score that diversify their offense, they can be tough.
The Knicks haven’t seen them in a few months, and the matchups have certainly been interesting. There’s history here from 2023, even if both rosters have been significantly turned over since. Rekindling an old rivalry wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Orlando Magic
Record: 39-34
Season series: 2-2
Record vs top-5 teams: 4-10
How hot are they?Suddenly frosty
Orlando was floundering when March began, but rattled off seven consecutive wins to make it look like things were coming together. Then, of course, they immediately lost six in a row to fall to the back of the pack.
Their biggest enemy has been health once again, as Franz Wagner has played exactly four games since originally suffering a high ankle sprain against the Knicks on December 7. He’ll likely be back for the playoffs, but it’s hard to expect him to be playing at peak level after re-injuring that ankle twice in return attempts, not to mention rust. Paolo Banchero continues to refuse to acknowledge his physical strengths and keeps trying to be a shooter, so the absence of Franz looms large.
Speaking of shooting, they added Desmond Bane in the offseason to fix that glaring wart. How’s it been going? Well, they’re 25th in 3PT% so…
Bane and Tristan De Silva are snipers, but among healthy regulars, only Jett Howard is shooting above 34%. Even if they are still struggling to score enough points to win consistently, they still employ some absolute grinders that will slow down your offense, including Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Jevon Carter, and Wendell Carter Jr. (plus Jonathan Isaac, whenever he plays).
All four meetings between these two teams were before Christmas and were very annoying, but that’s a long time ago. With how Banchero has risen to the occasion in the last two postseasons, they could be a tough out, but if Franz isn’t healthy, they shouldn’t have much of a real pulse.
