Reese McGuire is now a Brewer. The Cubs have officially signed three players. There are still two to go.
NBC is getting a deal — Anthony Rizzo is going to be good. His articulation and engaging personality will serve him well in that capacity.
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Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation*): How about some very early ZiPS Standings Projections for 2026? “… hopefully the Cubs can way outperform their median projection and finish with a top-two record in the league, earning that first round playoff bye.”
Randy Holt (North Side Baseball*): The absurdity of Nico Hoerner’s MLB Top 100 exclusion. “The question isn’t whether Nico Hoerner should have been on MLB Network’s list of the Top 100 players in Major League Baseball. It’s how high he should have ranked.“
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SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 13: Nick Martinez #28 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Athletics during the fifth inning at Sutter Health Park on September 13, 2025 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’ve broken down most of the notable free agent pitchers still left on the board this offseason, but one the Detroit Tigers have at least checked in on that we haven’t covered yet is right-hander Nick Martinez. The 35-year-old just spent two seasons starting for the Cincinnati Reds, and while his stuff doesn’t wow you, he knows how to pitch and get results. At this point that’s probably all the Tigers are really looking for with spring training now just over two weeks away.
Over those two seasons with the Reds, Martinez has put together a very nice 3.83 ERA across 308 innings of work. His strikeout rate is just 18.5 percent, well below average for a major league starter, but his 4.8 percent walk rate is outstanding. Just as impressive is a home run rate of just 1.0 HR/9, despite the fact that Martinez isn’t a big ground ball guy, instead getting a pretty even mix of fly balls and grounders, and was working in Great American Ballpark. Martinez made 42 starts in those two seasons, but had 82 appearances overall.
This is another feature the Tigers are no doubt intrigued by. You’re getting a solid backend starter who has smoothly moved between roles as required for the past few years, and generally been quite good out of the bullpen. Of course, other teams like that flexibility too. Jon Heyman has reported that the Yankees have checked in on Martinez recently, and they’re not alone.
There’s a pool of eight to ten starting pitchers left in free agency who seem certain to get a major league deal. Only Framber Valdez is the proven frontline starter of that group, but there are plenty of solid starters with some upside remaining. Martinez doesn’t really stand out among them except for that versatility, but that trait may create a competitive, if small in scale, market for him over the next few weeks. If he’s really set on pitching for a more star studden contender than the Tigers, he’s probably going to have that opportunity. Let’s look at Martinez anyway.
The Miami, Florida native was originally the 18th round pick for the Rangers way back in 2011 out of Fordham College. He broke in with the major league club in 2014. Martinez had some success over the next few years, but really cratered in 2017 and ultimately pitched for the Nippon Ham-Fighters and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks before the Padres picked him up for the 2022-2023 seasons. He was much improved, and after both years, he exercised player options and tested free agency, and the Reds plucked him on a two-year deal the second time around.
As a starter in 2025, Martinez posted a 2.61 ERA across 20 2/3 innings of work, while his 4.72 ERA as a starter covered 145 innings of his 165 2/3 total innings worked. Still, his 4.32 FIP as a starter, versus his 4.39 FIP in relief, says that the distinction may not really be that signficant. Martinez gave up a much higher rate of home runs in a starting role as you’d expect. It’s a deep mix of pitches, but he’s not overpowering. Still, the limited walks and plentiful weak contact often kept the damage limited even on off nights.
Martinez’s most used offering last year was his 89.1 mph cutter, but he throws similar amounts of his 92.5 mph fourseamer and sinker. He used the fouresamer 20.7 percent, and the sinker 17.1 percent, so it’s just hard for hitters to know which is coming from pitch to pitch. He’ll throw sliders at 84.9 mph,and curveballs at 79.8 mph, but the better pitch is his 81 mph changeup, and he uses that as much as both breaking balls combined.
That’s a deep, six pitch mix, and the fact that he posts well below average walk rates commanding six different offerings is pretty impressive. It also makes it very hard for hitters to guess what’s coming from pitch to pitch, and so he limits home runs well until they get at least a second look at him.
None of these pitches grade as plus, but from year to year they’re all roughly average offerings. The one exception in 2025 was the fourseamer, which did get hit a little harder than usual. Still, Martinez’s velocity has been pretty consistent throughout his career, particularly the last two seasons. There’s no sign that he’s losing anything, and at the same time his walk rates and overall strike throwing have gotten quite a bit better than his career averages.
If this all sounds pretty familiar, yes Tyler Holton certainly comes to mind. While the Tigers’ lefty stalwart is more of a ground ball pitcher, the style is very similar. Employ a deep mix that can be tailored to either-handed hitters, and command everything to a well above average degree. Martinez is basically a right-handed Tyler Holton with a lot more starting experience.
A pitcher like this can really tie a pitching staff together and they’re in need of some reinforcement. Martinez has a lot more experience as a starter in recent years, but if things somehow pan out perfectly and the Tigers don’t need him to start, now you’ve got a right-hander and a lefty in the pen that can get anyone out and go more than three outs whenever required.
Martinez presumably wants a shot at a starting gig, and the Tigers can provide at least that opportunity. But he’s also been through all the wars and is very much the type who does whatever is required to see his team win. After struggling some early in his career with the Texas Rangers, Martinez moved to Japan and spent the next four years perfectly his crafty stylings in the NPB. He returned with an extra mph of velo on his fastball that he’s lost the past two years, but his ERA marks the past four seasons are 3.47, 3.43, 3.10, and 4.45 in 2025.
The consistent results are impressive even if his individual pitches don’t wow you. ZIPS projections estimates a 2.1 fWAR 2026 season for Martinez in which he throws 138 innings, splitting time evenly between starting and relief, with a 4.26 ERA. That projection is roughly as good as any starter available in free agency not named Framber Valdez.
Certainly for 2026, Martinez’s versatility looks extremely appealing as the Tigers may experiment with any of Drew Anderson, Troy Melton, and possibly Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ty Madden and more in varying degrees in their rotation. Martinez would take that job himself, at least to start the season. If he struggled and a better option presented itself, he can move right back to the bullpen where he’s been outstanding the past few years. A team needs a lot of pitchers to cover starts throughout the season, but it’s a lot easier if you can option pitchers or flex some of them to the bullpen as needed. No doubt Martinez expects to start, but unlike signing most of the other starters available, it’s easier to just give him some time in the pen if he gets off to a rough start in the rotation.
The Reds paid Martinez $26 million over his two years there. He’ll cost more now, particularly as the Tigers may have to lure him away from other interested parties as the starting pitching market thins out over the next few weeks. Still it would be a pretty wise expenditure. It helps that unlike say, Zac Gallen, there’s no qualifying offer attached. It also helps that Martinez has been extremely durable for years. With the Tigers rotation looking like a shell of itself beyond 2026, a two-year deal to Martinez helps fortify the pitching staff now and for 2026 at a pretty reasonable price.
It’s not terribly exciting, but Martinez is generally more valuable than his modest reputation might suggest. With Chris Fetter game planning, and a catcher upgrade in Dillon Dingler, a command artist like this could absolutely thrive in Detroit. Another frontline starter isn’t in the cards, and the front office may see Nick Martinez as the perfect fit for their needs. Landing him will take some committment.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 27: Tyrese Maxey #0 and Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers smiles during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks on January 27, 2026 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Sixers will welcome the 13-37 Pelicans — sitting at 14th place in the West — to Philadelphia, and have a healthy squad on their side too.
Quentin Grimes, who’s been dealing with a right ankle sprain, is probable to return, and everyone else is available.
We’ll need to wait until closer to game time for the Pelicans’ injury report. New Orleans will have the rest disadvantage in this one, as they’re on the second night of a back-to-back after picking up a 114-106 win against the Grizzlies on Friday.
The headline matchup for the Sixers’ defense, of course, is Zion Williamson. After missing so much time throughout his career due to injuries, Zion has actually been in a run of good health and fine form lately. He’s played every game since Dec. 14, averaging 22.0 points with a 64.6 true shooting percentage while looking more like his high-flying self.
Apart from Paul George and Dominick Barlow needing to bring all the physicality and effort they can on the ball to try and cut off Zion’s drives, the Sixers will need sharp help rotations to keep Zion’s downhill scoring in check. Embiid and Adem Bona will need to be alert around the rim.
Trey Murphy III is having yet another strong season as well, tallying career-highs of 21.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game and a true shooting percentage of 61.7. He’s become more balanced as a scorer, becoming highly efficient as a finisher with simple yet strong drives and his transition play. The Sixers’ guards will need to follow him closely around screens to keep his high-volume threes contested and be ready to handle Murphy’s drive game when closing out.
It could be fun watching how Jeremiah Fears matches up against the Sixers’ guards as well. The Pelicans’ rookie point guard has been showing his potential from day one, although he’s had a role change over the last four games since moving to the bench. It can give him more time to lead the offense when not next to Zion and Queen, though, which is something Fears continues to improve at, and his defensive talent is still on show. It’s safe to say he’ll have a challenge on his hands against Maxey and VJ Edgecombe…
All that said, even with a few exciting young talents in their offense, the Pelicans still sit at just 25th in offensive rating.
It’ll be interesting to see how New Orleans’ super talented, crafty playmaking center Derik Queen fares on Saturday too. The rookie is averaging 12.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and an impressive 4.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game. He’ll likely bring some entertainment value this weekend — the way he drives, spins, and reads the floor as a playmaker at center is rare. However, he lacks much size at 6-foot-9 and vertical pop. And what with his lack of experience as well, he’s going to have a rough time not being physically overwhelmed by Embiid.
Which, in fairness, is the same for everyone facing the big fella right now. Jo’s moving fluidly again and truly back in dominant form.
There’s plenty to discuss right now as we wait for the NBA trade deadline to arrive, with Giannis-to-Philly talk continuing and Embiid calling out the team for repeatedly ducking the tax possibly ringing in the front office’s ears. And in the meantime, this should be a fun contest with the Sixers’ stars playing well and an explosive matchup to keep Zion in check. Before upcoming contests against teams like the Lakers, Suns and Knicks over the next two weeks, the Sixers need to take advantage on Saturday and grab what should be an easier win while they can.
With the extra firepower their offense has behind this version of Embiid and Maxey, Paul George perhaps in a better rhythm following his 32-point outing against Milwaukee, this team shouldn’t have many issues against the Pelicans’ 27th-ranked defense that’s playing on tired legs. If the Sixers can effectively protect the paint against Zion, they should have more than they need to extend the win streak to three.
Game Details
When: Saturday, January 31, 7:30 p.m. ET Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic Follow:@LibertyBallers
Something amazing is happening over the next several days in Sunrise.
When the Florida Panthers host the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday afternoon, it will be the start of something that hasn’t been seen in South Florida for quite some time.
For the first time in a month, the Panthers will be hosting an actual, real life homestand.
Even better, they won’t have to play any back-to-back sets! It’s truly like Christmas in July for the Panthers.
All joking aside, it will be nice for the Cats to have some stability in their lives for a couple weeks.
The only road game the Panthers will play between now and March is on Feb. 5 against Tampa, which also happens to be the last game Florida will play for the NHL breaks for the Winter Olympics.
Now the important next step for Florida will be to resume winning games on home ice.
Saturday’s game on Winnipeg, which comes on Jan. 31, will be the fifth home game of the month for the Panthers, including the Winter Classic that was planed at loanDepot park in Miami.
Florida has won just once on home ice this month, all the way back on Jan. 4 against Colorado.
Getting back on the right track and picking up some crucial points in the standings will go a long way toward Florida climbing back into striking distance of a playoff race.
Entering play Saturday, Florida’s 59 points is eight points back of Boston and Montreal, who are tied for the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference, and Buffalo, who hold the third spot in the Atlantic Division.
Florida has two games in hand on the Bruins, one on Montreal and the same amount of games played as Buffalo.
Here are the Panthers projected lines and pairings for Saturday’s matchup against Winnipeg:
Carter Verhaeghe – Evan Rodrigues – Sam Reinhart
Sandis Vilmanis– Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Mackie Samoskevich
Photo caption: Jan 22, 2026; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) shoots wide of Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) in overtime at Canada Life Centre. (James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images)
Today (this morning to be precise), the Spurs are playing an early game in Charlotte. The start time of the game was moved up three hours in anticipation of weather. The Spurs play and hopefully hightail it out of North Carolina for Texas, where they have another early game at the Frost Bank Center on Sunday afternoon.
Sunday’s game against the Orlando Magic has a Sesame Street theme. And there are still some tickets available if you want a limited addition t-shirt and the Courtside Experience.
In anticipation of the Sesame Street Day, two members of the Spurs were asked which Children’s Television Workshop characters they related to the most.
Keldon, the curator of chaos, naturally chose Cookie Monster, the most impulsive of Muppets.
Luke Kornet named Count von Count, distinctly for his survival skills.
It’s a shame they couldn’t get more guys on camera. It’s safe to say Victor Wembanyama could relate to Big Bird. But what about Jeremy Sochan, or Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes, or Devin Vassell? Who grew up relating to Oscar the Grouch, or Elmo, Ernie and Bert, or Mr. Snuffleupagus?…wait, maybe I just answered my own question.
What about you? Who did you relate to from Sesame Street? Personally, I am partial to the Two-Headed Monster.
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ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 19: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks drives against Jalen Johnson #1 of the Atlanta Hawks during the first quarter at State Farm Arena on January 19, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Hawks have all the assets necessary to put up a strong — and I’d argue a winning — fight in the great Giannis Antetokounmpo bidding war if they so choose to.
They have soon-to-be one-time All-Star Jalen Johnson locked up on a long, below maximum value contract, some young desirable talent, and of course a large piece of Milwaukee’s own draft picks in both the upcoming draft and the 2027 draft.
I outlined earlier that the Hawks also had control of every one of their first-round picks — excluding this year’s swap and next season’s pick outright — out to 2032. So, if Atlanta really desired to bring in the former two-time MVP, former two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and former Finals MVP, they could give the Bucks an offer they couldn’t refuse.
But they shouldn’t (and probably won’t) — and here’s why.
Let’s start with the latest from the rumor mill. Per NBA insider Marc Stein of the Stein Line substack blog from Thursday:
The early indications are that Atlanta has not joined the Giannis chase and does not intend to.
The Hawks do have control of Milwaukee’s picks in the next two drafts but have shown no interest to date in surrendering control of them. The Hawks are likewise said to be unwilling to surrender Jalen Johnson in a theoretical Antetokounmpo deal … even though Johnson’s agent Rich Paul said in one of his recent podcasts that the Milwaukee native is precisely whom the Bucks should target.
League sources say Atlanta continues to explore what moves can be made at this deadline with its $40-plus million in expiring contracts when combining Kristaps Porziņģis and Luke Kennard. And you can never forget that A) the Hawks hosted Antetokounmpo for the only pre-draft workout he conducted on American soil before the Bucks swooped in to select him with the 15th overall pick in 2013 and B) had conversations with Antetokounmpo’s agent Alex Saratsis last spring about joining Atlanta’s front office.
However …
Sources say that Atlanta has some level of reservation regarding the skillsets of Antetokounmpo and Johnson and how they would match after trading away Young in early January to make the 24-year-old their new centerpiece.
Onsi Saleh, the newly elevated general manager of the Hawks, on Tuesday spoke with Steak Shapiro and Sandra Golden on the Steakhouse, a show on 92.9 The Game Atlanta SportsRadio. In it, he talked through his team building philosophy including his desire to follow a model similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs — one in which sustaining winning over a long period of time is held in the highest importance.
“It’s development focused. It’s being flexible,” was one comment Saleh made in the interview as to what he wanted to see in this organization. But that development focus and flexibility would immediately go out of the window if the Hawks made the franchise-altering decision to acquire the former MVP.
“Patience is everything in this league. Once you start trading picks, that’s when you get in trouble,” was another quip from Saleh — something the Hawks now know all too well from the Dejounte Murray trade. Murray is obviously not Antetokounmpo, but there are legitimate reasons for hesitancy in this regard as well.
Three reasons stick out to me as to why it’s right for the Hawks to stay on the sideline for this move:
Giannis’ availability and signs of decline can’t be ignored
Giannis Antetokounmpo is very much still an all-world basketball player, even as he enters the heart of his 30s. Last season, he averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on 63% true shooting, and he deservingly finished third in MVP voting.
This season, the Bucks have a gargantuan 16.6 points differential per 100 possessions between Antetokounmpo being on versus off the floor. I can confirm with my own two eyes that he’s still a beast.
But any team that trades for him is trading for what the future holds for him, including very presumably the rights to hand him a four-year, $275 million maximum extension this offseason. That’s $68.8 million per season out until 2029-30.
Antetokounmpo has struggled this season with a rash lower body injuries — calf, adductor, groin, knee, ankle, you name it. As a result, he’s only played in 30 of a possible 46 games so far this season.
Add to that the fact that while his offensive impact is as clear as it’s ever been in his career, his defensive impact has fallen off a cliff since his Defensive Player of the Year days.
BBall Index’ LEBRON metric has estimated that Antetokounmpo has the third biggest falloff in defensive impact in the entire NBA between last season and this season:
DARKO D-DPM (Defense Daily Plus Minus) shows a career trajectory that is steadily aiming downwards:
And plain old defensive on-off rating has Antetokounmpo as not particularly moving the needle lately compared to his +7.8 on-off peak in 2019-20:
And the eye test largely matches these metrics. Antetokounmpo just doesn’t have the motor or defensive range he once had. Of course, he’s had to almost singlehandedly prop up the offense in the post-Holiday/post-Middleton era, so the heavy offensive load does matter, but it’s still a worrying trend.
You can’t live in the past when making a move of this importance. Projecting the future of a player you acquire is the most important aspect of which to be mindful. And if the Hawks gut their roster to acquire a great but no longer transcendent talent, the future state of the franchise could quickly turn grim.
The Hawks won’t be able to maximize the window with Giannis
With Antetokounmpo showing some signs of decline, any team that takes the plunge to acquire him has to try to compete as soon as possible. One must consider what is left over after a deal of that magnitude.
For example, if the Hawks send Jalen Johnson the opposite way alongside a bundle of picks, they’ll have very little ammo to upgrade the roster to maximize Antetokounmpo’s skillset. A devastating downhill scorer, Milwaukee has targeted a number of catch-and-shoot specialists and stretch big men over the past few years to open up the spacing for his drive and kick game.
The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are 24-26 and face an uphill climb just to make the postseason this season — adding to the fact that Antetokounmpo will be on the shelf for a number of weeks according to medical physician Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But look at the Bucks. You can point to some misguided moves there — stretching and waiving Damian Lillard over five years to sign Myles Turner was certainly a choice — but despite their best efforts to prove to Antetokounmpo that they will compete, they are now 18-28 and floundering.
The Hawks do have a surplus of shooters, but does Antetokounmpo fit with non-shooter Dyson Daniels long term? What happens when you take the ball out of the hands of others and centralize the gameplan around the Greek international? If he continues to have less and less range and impact on defense, where do you go for the defensive pieces to form a championship-contending team?
There are just so many difficult roster questions to answer that the Milwaukee Bucks themselves haven’t been able to answer (just one playoff series win since their title run in 2021). As great a player as he is, Antetokounmpo’s greatest gift may be his curse — he’s a dominant but inflexible centerpiece of a basketball team on the court.
Atlanta would lack the salary space and the draft assets to plug any holes if this trade were to go through unless they received a heavy price discount. And with teams like the Warriors ready to send virtually all future assets to give Stephen Curry a twilight sendoff, Atlanta matching that deal would be entirely too risky an endeavor I firmly believe.
The superpick is just too valuable
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery was recently announced to take place on May 10. Yesterday, January 30, marked 100 days until the date when the Hawks will find out their fate — assuming they hold onto the superpick that is the best post-lottery result of the Pelicans’ and Bucks’ first-round picks.
Let’s not mince words — this freshman class in college basketball is absolutely special.
There are five players on schedule to have the best BPM (box plus-minus) metrics in recent one-and-done history: Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Kingston Flemings, and Caleb Wilson. This quintet is joined by recent luminaries like Zion Williamson, Cooper Flagg, and Chet Holmgren.
Of course, a big BPM figure is no guarantee of superstardom at the NBA level (hello Bol Bol and Nerlens Noel), but this quantity of blue chip prospects is nearly unprecedented. Even beyond the presumptive top five, talent absolutely abounds.
NBA superstars just don’t hit the open market. They get extended or traded to a team that will extend their contracts almost exclusively nowadays in the NBA.
I understand the irony of this piece being about weighing trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the only other primary avenue to acquire franchise-pillar talent is through the draft — and typically you have to be a bad team to strike it rich.
The Hawks are near .500 (yes, once again), but they still may have a better chance at the top pick and at a top-four pick than whichever team finishes with the worst record.
As of Friday afternoon, the combined odds from the Pelicans (tied for the worst record) and the Bucks (alone with the seventh worst record) would give the Hawks north of a 20% chance at the top pick and north of a 55% chance at a top-four pick.
Onsi Saleh, in the above interview, acknowledged the strength of the draft class and the ability to add that talent to a young Hawks core. Preserving ownership of that pick is not a bet that the player they pick will eventually be better than Giannis Antetokounmpo (altogether unlikely) — it’s a bet to have a cost-controlled, moldable talent for the next eight, nine, or 10 seasons to lead this franchise over a costly superstar in his fading seasons.
If the Bucks consider inclusion of the superpick a must to get a deal done, then, for me, there is no deal there. The Hawks have dabbled with impatience throughout their history and been burned repeatedly. It’s simply time to play the long game.
Who:New York Rangers (22-27-6, 50 points, 8th place Metropolitan Division) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (27-14-11, 65 points, 2nd place Metropolitan Division)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET
How to Watch: National broadcast on ABC
Pens’ Path Ahead: The Penguins have a busy next few days heading into the Olympic break. The Pens have a back-to-back set next Monday and Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators at home and New York Islanders on the road, then get one day off before wrapping up this portion of the season with a Thursday road game against the Buffalo Sabres.
Opponent Track: It hasn’t gone as former Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan was likely hoping for his first year in Manhattan. The Rangers are reportedly sitting Artemi Panarin in case of a potential trade. They’ve waved the white flag with a Jan. 16 letter to fans. They’re 3-9-1 since the start of the calendar year, they’ve sunk down to bottom of the Eastern Conference and Tankathon currently gives them the fourth-best odds at the first overall draft pick this spring. They most recently dropped a 2-1 home loss to the New York Islanders on Thursday.
Season Series: The Pens and Rangers met twice early in the season, with the Penguins shutting the Rangers out 3-0 at Madison Square Garden to kick off the campaign before losing 6-1 at home four days later.
JT Miller was asked what more the Rangers can do:
"At some point, it's hard to come up with answers other than put the puck in the net more often. I think we all believe if you do the same thing a lot more times than you don't, you'll get the results" pic.twitter.com/a4FRucnPvF
Hidden stat: The Rangers just went 0-4-0 against the Islanders in their cross-city rivalry. This marked the first time in franchise history the Rangers never held a lead in the season series, per The Athletic’s Peter Baugh.
Getting to know the Rangers
Projected lines
FORWARDS
J.T. Miller – Mika Zibanejad – Gabriel Perreault
Will Cuylle – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafrenière
Injured Reserve: Conor Sheary, Adam Fox, Adam Edstrom, Igor Shesterkin
Artemi Panarin hasn’t played since Jan. 26. He isn’t expected to slot back into the lineup before rosters freeze for the Olympic break on Feb. 4, and ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reportedly it’s “likely” he’s already skated in his final game for the Rangers.
The Rangers lost two key players to injury earlier this month when star goaltender Igor Shesterkin and top defenseman Adam Fox were placed on injured reserve the same day. Fox was placed on LTIR, and Saturday is the first day he’s eligible to return. He returned to practice in a non-contact jersey on Wednesday.
With Panarin sidelined, Mika Zibanejad is the most dangerous Rangers player to look out for. He’s got goals in two straight games, although the Rangers were outscored by a total of 8-3 in those outings, and he was the lone player to score Thursday against the Islanders.
The Rangers have been leaning on Jonathan Quick and Spencer Martin in net since Sorokin went down with injury. The two have been alternating starts for the last six games. Quick hasn’t recorded a regulation win since Nov. 7— his lone victory since then came on Jan. 26 against the Boston Bruins in overtime. He got the last start Thursday against the Islanders, so it could potentially be Martin back in net tonight.
And now for the Pens
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Anthony Mantha – Sidney Crosby – Rickard Rakell
Egor Chinakhov – Tommy Novak – Evgeni Malkin (?)
Kevin Hayes – Ben Kindel – Justin Brazeau
Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Noel Acciari
DEFENSEMEN
Parker Wotherspoon / Erik Karlsson
Brett Kulak / Kris Letang (?)
Ilya Solovyov / Ryan Shea
Goalies: Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner
Potential Scratches: Bryan Rust (serving the second game of his three-game suspension), Connor Clifton
IR: Ryan Graves, Filip Hallander, Caleb Jones, Jack St. Ivany
What the Penguins’ lineup looks like today will depend on the status of Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin. The Pens announced Friday that an update was coming on both players.
Forward Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang will not practice today. Their statuses will be updated tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/as1DAv0noI
If Letang and Malkin are unable to play Saturday, Kevin Hayes will likely slot in on the second line and Connor Clifton will draw in on defense, while the Penguins will hope the upcoming Olympic break gives their veterans a chance to rest up. As one player pointed out to the Tribune-Review’s Seth Rorabaugh, they are “closer to 40,” after all.
Dan Muse confirmed Letang and Malkin were absent for health-related concerns. Still being evaluated.
A teammate suggested they should be available for Saturday's game and joked they're each middle-aged.
Penguins team reporter Michelle Crechiolo shared a fun article Friday about the chemistry on the Penguins this season, both in terms of the coaching staff and among the players in the locker room. That’s included Evgeni Malkin taking Arturs Silovs, Sergei Murashov, Egor Chinakhov and Ilya Solovyov out for meals, according to Crechiolo.
Erik Karlsson will enter Saturday’s matchup one assist away from career helper No. 700.
Mar 18, 2025; Bradenton, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher Josh Breaux (72) prepares for batting practice before the start of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates during spring training at LECOM Park. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
I’m actually kind of surprised how close we are to spring training. Had you asked me, I would have told you it was still like a month and a half away, but it’s kind of snuck up on us.
Which is a good thing since we’re all sick of waiting for it to arrive.
On to the links.
Phillies news:
In this version of the mailbag ($), there are questions answered about Aidan Miller breaking camp with the team and Justin Crawford’s defense.
Becoming a major league baseball player is extremely difficult. I know, breaking news… It definitely helps if a major league team signs you to a professional contract and sends you to one of their minor league affiliates, but even so, the odds are against you. With the recent excitement in Cardinals nation around the signing of top 10 international prospect, outfielder, Emanuel Luna, I wanted to dig into some data and see how often players, position players specifically, were able to make the trek all the way from the lowest rung of professional baseball, the Dominican Summer League (DSL), to a major league field. Going back to 2006, 7,655 players have gotten a plate appearance in the DSL. 226, or roughly 3%, of these young men have eventually made a major league debut. This 3% of players end up making a huge impact on major league rosters accounting for roughly 16% of total position player WAR produced over the last five seasons. Fortunately for the Cardinals, their last two international signing classes are off to terrific starts. Everyone has been following Rainiel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla from the 2024 class, but the 2025 class has at least seven interesting names on the position player side of things too. Today I want to focus on these seven players and evaluate if they really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis.
Before we get to our prospect discussion, I want to provide a bit of historical context for the Cardinals DSL hitter production. All of the aforementioned players will be following in the illustrious footsteps of Cardinals legend Ildemaro Vargas as the next superstar to make the long journey from the DSL to St. Louis. Just kidding, but only barely.. The Cardinals have had a tough time getting any position player talent out of their DSL programs over the last several decades. Since 2006, Vargas ranks behind only Edmundo Sosa and Ivan Herrera as noteworthy alumni from the lowest level of the Cardinals system. Oscar Taveras would have likely changed the narrative drastically had his story not ended so sadly. Herrera along with fellow catchers Leonardo Bernal and Rainiel Rodriguez will try to break the trend, but there is no denying that the Cardinals have struggled in this department. If you total up the career WAR of all the DSL (and now defunct Venezuelan Summer League) players since 2006, the Cardinals rank 26th in baseball with a grand total of 8 WAR produced (inclusive of all career WAR, not just with the signing team). The top teams in this department have found multiple star-level players. Houston leads the way with 106 WAR with notable contributions from Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Teoscar Hernandez. Boston is next led by Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.
Alright, back to the Cardinals 2025 DSL standouts. A quick summary before we dive into some more macro data.
Sebastian Dos Santos signed for only $75K and as an unheralded member of the 2025 international class, but had the most impressive debut of the group. His 158 wRC+ was ninth in the DSL and third among players 17 or younger. He walked more than he struck out and led all first-year DSL players with a .258 isolated slugging percentage (fifth overall). Dos Santos is noted as having a great approach at the plate and feel for hitting. While he does not have monster exit velocity numbers yet, his 21 extra-base hits in 38 games are extremely encouraging. While his season strikeout percentage was solid at 17.5%, Dos Santos finished on an incredible run striking out only one time in his final 51 plate appearances.
Yeferson Portolatin signed for $450K and had an excellent DSL debut. His 145 wRC+ was driven in large part by a 29.3% walk rate. He played mostly second base with a few appearances at short and third.
Yaxson Lucena is the only player on this list repeating the DSL. He put up an 89 wRC+ across 130 plate appearances in his age 16 season in 2024, and then crushed the league in 2025 with a 1.5 BB/K ratio and 140 wRC+. Lucena is another player with a great plate approach and excellent contact skills, but it remains to be seen how much power he can get to. He has played exclusively corner outfield and DH thus far in his career.
Kenly Hunter received the third-largest bonus in the 2025 class at $700K. He had an excellent debut as well putting up a 131 wRC+ while stealing 25 bases as the center fielder for the DSL squad. While he showed minimal power, Hunter is starting to pop up on some Cardinals prospect lists because of his pedigree and solid first professional season.
Miguel Hernandez is one of the younger players in the 2025 class and had an excellent debut with a 124 wRC+. Despite being seen as a hit-over-power prospect, he popped 5 home runs in 36 games while serving as the team’s primary shortstop.
Juan Rujano is a bat first catcher that signed for $750K out of Panama. While his K rate was slightly elevated at 23%, he still managed a 121 wRC+ with solid walk and power numbers.
Royelny Strop was the most heralded member of the 2025 class signing for $1.4M. The son of former Cubs reliever Pedro, struggled with injuries and performance for most of the year. Strop turned it on over his last six games collecting seven extra-base hits (out of nine on the season) and hitting for the cycle in his final game. The late barrage brought his season wRC+ up to 89.
Now, back to the question: do all of these seemingly promising prospects really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis? How much do their (mostly) promising starts at such young ages change their odds moving forward. The first thing working to the whole group’s advantage is age. All seven of these prospects were in their age 17 season in 2025. Below are the updated odds based on age for all players that accrued at least 100 plate appearances in a given season.
Note that this is showing individual seasons, so a player that played both his age 17 and 18 season in the DSL would be counted twice. I also cut the data off after the 2019 season. The 2020 season was canceled due to COVID and the more recent seasons have not started to see a meaningful number of players make major league debuts. These numbers aren’t surprising as we would expect players good enough to get to 100 plate appearances at a younger age are more likely to succeed relative to their older counterparts. For me the big takeaway is that it is a big red flag if a prospect is held back after his age 17 season and not advanced to the next level.
With the obvious age filter out of the way, we can move to performance. It is tricky evaluating DSL statistics for a couple of reasons. First, the seasons are short. Most of the seasons in our dataset are in the 100-200 plate appearance range, which creates triple slash lines heavily influenced by batted-ball luck. Second, there has been significant change in the DSL environment over the years. The league-wide walk rate was 14.7% in 2025 after hovering closer to 10% prior to 2018. To mitigate the sample-size issue, I will look at BB%, K%, and isolated slugging. While not perfect, these metrics stabilize in far fewer plate appearances than batting average or on-base percentage. To try to account for the change in playing environment, I converted the rate stats to plus stats relative to the league average that year. For example, Kenley Hunter had a strikeout percentage of 11.6% compared to the league average of 20.4% which works out to a K%+ of 176.
Here is a look at how the three plus statistics relate to chance of a debut:
Strikeout rate and isolated slugging have a very obvious relationship to debut rate. Striking out at an above-average (in a bad way) rate doesn’t preclude a player from making a debut but it more than cuts his chances in half relative to the overall average. The walk rate relationship is all over the place. Players that walk at half the league average or less actually debut slightly more often than the entire pool. This validates a common theme you will hear in scouting reports that talented players tend to swing more because they can hit anything at the lower levels. Our own Yohel Pozo shows up on the list of low walk players after pulling off a 5% walk rate back in 2014 in the Rangers system. Despite Pozo’s presence, I am comfortable throwing out walk rate as overly predictive at this stage.
Here are how the aforementioned redbird farmhands stack up on these metrics:
The obvious question looking at these two tables is how does a player that excels in multiple categories see their likelihood of a debut change. Because all of the Cardinals prospects here played their age 17 season, I will look exclusively at that cohort while throwing out the BB+ metric as a factor (sorry Yeferson). The grid below maps K%+ against ISO+. Using Kenly Hunter as the example again, he would slot into the fourth row down (150-200 K%+) and the second column from the left (50-100 ISO+). This maps him to a group of players that have historically made it for at least one big-league at-bat 9% of the time.
This table of all the 17-year-old prospects to receive 100 plate appearances in a season between 2006 and 2019 includes 1,901 player seasons. The extreme performances have relatively low numbers of players, but looking at the ranges gives a good sense of how these players have historically performed. The only player in the 200-250 bucket for both K%+ and ISO+ is Andres Gimenez.
Where the Cardinals Prospects Fit In
Sebastian Dos Santos fits in a cohort that has made a big-league debut 57% of the time as 14 players have had K%+ between 100 and 150 with ISO+ rates between 200 and 250. This group is led by Rafael Devers and Julio Rodriguez and also includes former top prospect Noelvi Marte.
Yaxson Lucena falls in the 33% bucket with a couple of former top prospects in Oscar Taveras and Victor Robles, but no huge major league success. It is fair to knock Lucena back a notch because he is the only player repeating the DSL.
Yeferson Portalatin falls in the 9% bucket with both metrics between 100 and 150. 14 of his 151 comparables have debuted with Xander Bogaerts, Gregory Polanco, and Ivan Herrera leading the pack. I know we cannot get excited about walks in the DSL, but it will be fun to see how Portalatin’s patient approach translates and evolves as he moves up the ladder.
Miguel Hernandez just missed the 100-and-up strikeout rate club. Only 6 of the 112 players in his bucket made it big but there are some fun ones with Oneil Cruz and Marcell Ozuna.
Our metric gives Kenly Hunter a 9% chance of making the show with Jean Segura as the most prominent player to come out of the high contact, low-power group.
Both Royelny Strop and Juan Rujano fall in the 50-100 K%+ and 100 to 150 ISO+ group that has historically made it 5% of the time. Willson Contreras is by far the best of this 225 player pool, but he is joined by Cardinals legends Yairo Munoz and Elehuris Montero.
All of these players should be stateside this spring preparing to start in the Florida Complex League. Best case scenario, a couple of them break out and make it to low-A before the season’s end. While none of this group is threatening the Cardinals’ top 10 or even 20 prospect list yet, the path from the DSL to prospect prominence has been well worn over the last year. In 2024, current top 100 prospects Jesus Made, Luis Pena, Rainiel Rodriguez, Edward Florentino, and Emil Morales were all excelling in the DSL.
With five days left till Thursday’s 3:00 p.m. ET trade deadline, the Brooklyn Nets have:
the youngest roster in the NBA, the average a little more 23 games:
four of the 20 youngest players in the league, the sixth (Nolan Traore), eighth (Ben Saraf), 11th (Egor Demin), and 19th (Drake Powell) plus two 21-year-olds who like them are on a rookie deal( Noah Clowney and Danny Wolf);
A total of as many as 32 draft picks going forward, most in the league, including 13 firsts, 10 of which are tradeable immediately;
Likely a high lottery pick in the loaded 2026 Draft, plus as many as three mid-to-high second rounders:
$15.3 million in cap space through the start of free agency, still the most in the NBA, then perhaps as much as $48.8 million next season, per Keith Smith. Still top three or four.
Michael Porter Jr., Nic Claxton, Day-Ron Sharpe;
An ownership group (the Tsai and Koch families) who have a combined net worth of $95 billion;
Oh yeah, they play in New York City.
Alas, they also have only 12 wins.
Do you really believe that all those assets, all that flexibility, the Nets won’t play some role in the Giannis Antetokuonmpo trade speculation? The front office and ownership are going to dismiss the possibility of acquiring a top 5 player, even with injury and contract issues? They didn’t sacrifice the past two years without fantasizing about Giannis in black-and-white!
We don’t know but in the past few days, the Nets have nudged their way into the Greek Freakout (trademark pending) conversation, either as a facilitator — friend with draft picks, so to speak — to an actual suitor for the 31-year-old who’s won two MVPs and the Finals MVP.
“The Nets make a lot of sense for him,” one Eastern Conference assistant GM told The Post. “They have some good future picks. [They] could, in theory, trade five future picks, keep this year’s pick, shut him down for the year? Tank?”
The GM said he believes that if there is a deal, the actual parameters would fall outside the speculation … that Michael Porter Jr. would be the key for the Nets.
“I’d speculate that Claxton and [Terance] Mann are the outgoing salary and Porter stays,” the assistant GM told The Post, adding, “But that’s not based on inside info.”
Michael Porter Jr. has been the subject of a lot of speculation over the last few days with speculation his $38.0 million deal this season would be a big help in both matching salary and addressing the loss of the 6’11” athlete from Greece.
That said, Shams Charania, Marc Stein, Jake Fischer and Lewis have reported, almost in chorus, that the Nets are NOT/NOT interested in moving MPJ who they and their fans have become fond of.
Brian Windhorst was the latest reporter to say while there’s all those assets sitting there the Nets want to keep Porter.
Windy on MPJ:
"I know everybody thinks that Porter's available, that would be news to me. I have not heard that he is available. If he is available wait for Shams to tell me because I haven't heard that" pic.twitter.com/z9i24WtGGI
Putting it that way implies that not this may not be posturing. More than one reporter has said that assuming the Nets get who or what they want in the June Draft, they’ll start the move from rebuild to contention. Another source of Lewis said that this now just may be the right time.
“Then this is their moment,” the source said. “Really depends on if they decide that their aimless tank is over. They could sure make the best offer.”
At the end of the day, though, no one is currently reporting that the Nets have made an offer. But oh those draft picks, as Frank Isola alluded to on YES pregame Thursday pregame.
“I did some reporting on this,” said Isola once the top Daily News basketball writer, “The Bucks have yet to received a ‘wow’ offer,” implying that the front office at Fi-Serve Arena is going to play hard bull once the nut-cutting routing accelerates as we get closer to the deadline.
“You hear about the Warriors, you hear about the Heat , but I think the Brooklyn Nets would be involved,” Isola said unsolicited. “I should say be in play because Milwaukee,, from everything I heard, are looking for young players and draft picks and be ready to rebuild completely. So when you think about the assets the Nets have in play and don’t rule out the Goldens State Warriors as well.”
Isola said the Bucks could also wait until the summer when teams will have more flexibility.
As we reported Thursday, Windhorst believes the Nets will ultimately make an offer.
“Brooklyn has 10 tradeable firsts and Michael Porter Jr. and 11 tradeable firsts as of draft night. Do we think Brooklyn will make an offer,” the ESPN’s top NBA insider asked amidst a back-and-forth among three ESPN writers. “I think Brooklyn will seriously consider making an offer.”
We also don’t know how Antetokounmpo feels about the Nets as a final destination. He wants to win more titles and the Nets are far from that. Also, we don’t know how the Nets see him. (Two years ago, Brooklyn wanted everyone to believe they were a natural fit for Damian Lillard. It was all a smoke screen.)
As for Brooklyn once again using their assets to facilitate deals — they’ve made four salary dumps since July — the general impression that this is more likely than a trade that would bring Giannis to Barclays. Among the assets Isola noted, is the cap space. Keith Smith this week did a rundown for Spotrac of where teams stand with the aprons and luxury tax threshold. The bottom line for the Nets is that around 10 teams could gain a lot of relief with salary dumps as long as the draft assets are good.
The Nets have flexibility going forward both now and at the Draft. Have they had the famous “internal conversations” about Giannis? How can you think they have not.
Meanwhile, speculation re: Day’Ron Sharpe grows. The most recent is a possible deal with Oklahoma City who is looking for a big man after losing three of four. Increasingly, there’s belief that the 6’9” big could fetch a first rounder. Just this week, it was revealed that Sharpe has the highest offensive rebounding percentage in league history at 18.3% surpassing both Jayson Williams, the former Net, and Dennis Rodman, the Hall of Famer.
The Indiana Hoosiers (14-7, 5-5) are on a road trip that includes a visit to the UCLA Bruins (15-6, 7-3) in a Big Ten conference game Saturday, Jan. 31 at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET) inside of Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, California.
UCLA is currently tied for fifth place in the Big Ten. The Bruins are coming off of a 73-57 win at Oregon on Jan. 29 led by senior forward Tyler Bilodeau with 18 points.
The Hoosiers come into the game feeling good after narrowly knocking off No. 12-ranked Purdue, 72-67, on Jan. 28. Indiana senior six-foot-six guard Lamar Wilkerson had 19 points to lead the way for the Hoosiers.
Their win helps their case for the NCAA Tournament as they're on the bubble. Their game against UCLA has even higher stakes as Indiana can make noise heading into February or UCLA can continue make their own case for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Indiana is currently 10th in the Big Ten with a 5-5 conference record and 14-7 overall.
UCLA, currently sixth in the Big Ten, has a 7-3 conference record and 15-6 overall.
The Bruins have won 10 of their last 14 games, posting a 5-3 record in the month of January. UCLA ranked second in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage shooting 37.6% in 21 games, through Thursday, Jan. 29.
How to watch UCLA vs. Indiana: TV channel, live stream
The UCLA Bruins will host the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, Jan. 31 at 2 p.m. local time (5 p.m. ET) on Peacock. The site of the game is Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, California.
Jan 30, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward/guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles as Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr (20) defends during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images | Brad Mills-Imagn Images
The Wizards took on the Los Angeles in the hostile road environment of…well…Washington, DC, and got stomped, 142-111.
If you’re a Wizards fan — and you probably are if you’re reading this — fire this game into the sun. Shoot into a memory hole. Nothing to see.
There’s stuff from this one the Wizards youngsters could probably learn. Maybe something about being mentally and physically prepared on the second night of a back-to-back. Perhaps some lessons about maintaining top physical condition and all-around fitness to sustain a long career. There were lessons about building skills, developing counters for when the defense stymies you, and learning the game so you can think a step or two ahead of your opponent. Possibly, something about staying humble when things have gone well recently (like a two-game winning streak).
This wasn’t the play, but Lakers great LeBron James threw down a poster dunk on Wizards big man (and the NBA’s leading shot blocker) Alex Sarr. | Brad Mills-Imagn Images
Maybe.
For me, the biggest takeaway: fugetaboutit. Young players, bad game against a veteran team coming in hot after a bad loss of their own — a team playing for something and with something to prove.
If you were a DC-based Lakers fan and could get a ticket, you were likely entertained by the nine alley-oop dunks Los Angeles successfully executed against Washington defenders who kept getting so mesmerized by The Ball that they forgot to defend the big guy standing near the basket. (The Lakers had a 10th lob attempt that Deandre Ayton couldn’t convert. He ended up getting the offensive rebound and drawing a foul. He made the free throws.
Or they forgot to rotate when Alex Sarr went to help, which was a lot because no one in a Wizards uniform could keep a Lakers player in front of him.
Or they kinda pointed vaguely where a teammate should go while the teammate’s back was turned instead of verbally communicating, as players are taught to do.
If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 20 Lakers points on 10 lob attempts. Yikes,
This one was over quickly. The Lakers kicked the Wizards in the teeth in the first quarter, and continued kicking in the second. Washington trailed by 29 at the half, and the Lakers coasted in from there.
The only real drama was whether Luka Doncic would get a triple-double by halftime (he did) and whether the Lakers would ever stop dunking on Washington (they did, but only because time expired).
Thoughts & Observations
LeBron James is still pretty dang good. Last night, he converted a left-handed catch and dunk on a lob pass that I thought was too high for nearly anyone, much less a 41-year-old. He also threw down a driving dunk on Sarr after drawing him on a switch and clearing the court so he could attack.
Luka Doncic was outright clowning the Wizards, who were incapable of slowing him. He finished with 37 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists. His point total would likely have been higher if the refs had called the 5-6 clear fouls Washington committed that didn’t draw a whistle.
The Wizards had a positive scoring differential with only one player: Anthony Gill. Gill basically had the game of his career — 9 points on 4-5 shooting and 10 rebounds in just 17 minutes of action.
Washington’s poor defense made Ayton look like an all-time great. He finished with 28 points on 14 field goal attempts along with 13 rebounds, and 3 blocks.
Washington did the same favor for backup big man Jaxson Hayes, who scored 10 points on 5 field goal attempts.
At least The Puppy Race at halftime was entertaining. Bark Carrington came through with the come-from-behind win when the race’s early leader succumbed to an apparent case of ADHD inches from the finish line.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORS
LAKERS
WIZARDS
LGAVG
eFG%
69.4%
52.5%
54.3%
OREB%
33.3%
32.7%
26.1%
TOV%
24.2%
16.7%
12.8%
FTM/FGA
0.282
0.071
0.209
PACE
107
99.5
ORTG
132
103
115.5
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.5. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
Australian duo Kubler and Polmans beaten 7-6 (4), 6-4
‘Christian has given me a new lease of life this year’
Neal Skupski continued Britain’s impressive recent record in men’s doubles by winning the Australian Open title in tandem with American Christian Harrison. The newly-formed pair, playing in just their second tournament together, defeated the Australian wildcard duo Jason Kubler and Marc Polmans 7-6 (4), 6-4 on Rod Laver Arena.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ - MARCH 2: Colt Emerson #85 of the Seattle Mariners in action during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 2, 2025 in Scottsdale, AZ. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | Getty Images
For those of you who can’t read all the hundreds of comments in the links posts every day, we’re hoping to isolate some of the most interesting conversations from the Moose Tracks and open them up to broader discussion, giving a little more space and time to issues that we feel especially deserve conversation. Yesterday, commenter USSDumper (an excellent username, indeed) posed this question:
Who of the following players would help the Mariners most by putting up a 3-4 win season next year:
Cole Young
Luke Raley
Colt Emerson
Ben Williamson
Victor Robles
Bryce Miller
Dom Canzone
I really enjoyed the conversation that stemmed from this prompt in the Moose Tracks, which gave me avenues to think about that I wouldn’t have originally taken into consideration—like the idea that a 3-4 win season from Colt Emerson not only helps the Mariners at a supposed position of weakness, but also potentially pays dividends down the line with an extra draft pick. My gut reaction, given yesterday’s injury news about Logan Evans, is to pick stability in the rotation with Bryce Miller. But honestly, I can see an argument for any player on the list. It was such a good conversation that I felt it deserved better than being buried in a links post on a Friday morning.
So, going forward, if this is something you’re interested in—even if not this particular prompt—please participate here. Maybe we’ll do this weekly, or semiweekly. In a time when authentic conversations are becoming less common in online spaces, we don’t take our community for granted, and we want to give space for the organic ideas brought up by community members to grow.
Doncic registered 37 points and 13 assists [Getty Images]
Luka Doncic scored a triple double in 20 first-half minutes as the Los Angeles Lakers thrashed the Washington Wizards 142-111 on Friday.
The 26-year-old, who on Tuesday became the quickest Laker to reach 2,000 points, showed no lasting injuries after he fell off Cleveland's elevated court in a 30-point defeat on Thursday.
Leading the way with 26 points by half-time, six-time NBA All-Star Doncic helped the Lakers to their second-highest scoring performance of the season.
Deandre Ayton bagged 28 points and a game-high 13 rebounds, while LeBron James grabbed 20 points and six assists.
The victory denied three straight wins for the Wizards, who had beaten the Portland Trail Blazers and the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Lakers next play the New York Knicks on Monday, while the Wizards face the Sacramento Kings on Sunday.
