Hey, you, reading this. Who is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ best starter? Paul Skenes, yeah? That’s an easy one. But, who’s the Pirates’ second-best starter? Well, if you read the title of this post, you probably have an inkling… it’s Braxton Ashcraft.

The 26-year-old Texan was taken 51st overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Despite a series of serious injuries (meniscus, Tommy John Surgery) as he developed in the minors, he made his MLB debut last year in a swing role, and seriously impressed in a manner commensurate with his draft pedigree and top prospect status: a 63 ERA-, 68 FIP-, and 86 xFIP- in 69 2/3 innings spanning eight starts and 18 relief appearances, good for 1.6 fWAR.

Fully ascended to the rotation in 2026, Ashcraft has nearly rivaled Skenes in effectiveness so far. He’s made 12 starts, lasted 74 2/3 innings, and already has 2.0 fWAR with a 66/74/76 line. For the record, Skenes is at 74/64/71 this year (2.2 fWAR in 13 starts), so… that’s quite a one-two punch they’re packing in Pittsburgh these days.

How does Ashcraft do it? Well, mostly how you’d expect. He throws really hard (97 mph average on his heater) and has almost-excellent command. The only pitch that has notable inconsistency in mechanics is his curve, but when you’re fending off a 97 mph four-seamer and a 91 mph slider-cutter thing, it gets harder to punish an 85 mph curve that works more like a traditional slider with a bunch more depth, even if Ashcraft mostly tends to throw it in the zone. Does he have any weaknesses? Lefties tend to do okay against him when they’re not swinging through that curve, so the Braves’ best bet might be for Michael Harris II and company to guess a fastball or slider/cutter and let loose.

Ashcraft is also coming off a pretty dominant outing against the Twins with an 11/0 K/BB ratio in six innings, so… good luck, Braves!

On the flip side, the Braves will hand the ball to a once-dominant phenom who is still figuring out what his career will look like going forward. Spencer Strider comes into the game with a 91/116/93 line in 31 innings (six starts). The run prevention results for him and his defense are above-average, and his pitching’s been in that range as well… but boy, those homers. Strider started his season with just one longball against him in his first three starts, but then the Marlins hit three off him, and the Red Sox tagged him for two first-inning dingers in Boston. He rebounded with a very nice outing against the Reds (8/2 K/BB ratio, his best start of the year in six tries so far)… except that Ronald Acuña Jr. concentrated a series of defensive flubs in right field into the same game, and things didn’t go quite so great for the Braves in a loss — their first defeat in a Strider start this year.

Will the Braves win the set this afternoon, or will they need to rely on a rubber game victory to do so? Stay tuned and find out.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Saturday, June 6, 4:10 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

The Mets have granted the release of LHP Anderson Severino for him to play in Japan, according to The Athletic's Will Sammon.

Severino, 31, was recently designated for assignment by New York on May 30 to make room for Cionel Pérez on the 40-man roster.

While he did not pitch in the big leagues with the Mets, Severino went 2-0 with five saves, 20 strikeouts, and a 1.31 ERA over 18 appearances with Triple-A Syracuse.

Severino signed a minor league contract with New York in November 2025 and played in three spring training games this year, but struggled with a 13.50 ERA over 2.2 innings. He was then reassigned to minor league camp on March 1.

For his major league career, the left-hander has appeared in six games (all with the Chicago White Sox in 2022) and owns a 6.14 ERA with nine strikeouts over 7.1 IP.

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The Texas Rangers opened their series against the Cleveland Guardians with a low-scoring victory.

My Guardians vs. Rangers predictions are banking on more of the same Saturday night.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for June 6.

Who will win Guardians vs Rangers today: Texas Rangers (-115)

Tanner Bibee has really struggled on the road, posting a 5.96 ERA and alarming underlying metrics to boot.

Bibee has induced soft contact just 6.5% of the time on balls put in play, the lowest among today’s starting pitchers. He has also allowed a sky-high 26% line drive rate.

With Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager healthy again, the Texas Rangers have a more dangerous lineup to slow down.

Jack Leiter has pitched much better at home. He shouldn’t need much run support against a 22nd ranked Cleveland Guardians offense.

Back the Rangers to -125.

COVERS INTEL:Tanner Bibee ranks in the 26th percentile in Pitching Run Value.

Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-115)

Leiter has made three starts at home against Bottom-15 offenses in OBP vs. right-handed pitching. He allowed a total of five runs while averaging just under 17 outs.

The Guardians rank 24th in OBP and 29th in average against right-handed pitching. Hitting for power at Globe Life Field is difficult to do, and they aren’t well-equipped to string together hits against Leiter.

The Rangers average almost a full run less per game at home. Playing in such a pitcher-friendly environment should help Bibee mask his problems.

Play the Under to -125.

Guardians vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Guardians -105 | Rangers -115
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+160) | Rangers +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Guardians vs Rangers trend

Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 home games (+12.20 units, 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Rangers.

How to watch Guardians vs Rangers and game info

Guardians vs Rangers latest injuries

Guardians vs Rangers weather

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With the uncertainty surrounding Gavin Lux’s health, the Rays are relatively thin in the middle infield. Richie Palacios (103 wRC+ vs righties) and Ben Williamson (92 wRC+ vs lefties) have done their best to platoon the second base position into close to league average production, but the Rays would be wise to consider some external candidates to take over if Lux remains on the IL much longer.

A potential trade target is Giants second baseman Luis Arraez. Arraez hadn’t played much second base since 2023, but the Giants seem to have helped him find another gear defensively at the position. While I don’t think he is as good as his early-season Outs Above Average (OAA) numbers suggest, I do believe that he’s a passable defender there who will make the plays he’s supposed to make. But the Rays wouldn’t be trading him for his glove.

Arraez is as consistent as they come in his ability to spray line drives all over the field. His contact-oriented profile fits the Rays new offensive identity well, and his career 126 wRC+ against righties makes him even more enticing. It’s rare for a team in contention like the Rays to be able to improve second-base production from roughly league average to comfortably above average without a tradeoff in defensive quality. As a pending free agent, Arraez is one of the few veterans on the roster who could bring back meaningful prospect value if San Francisco decides to sell. His positional fit, production, and status on his current team make him an ideal trade target for the Rays.

So what could it take to acquire Arraez? Unlike a frontline starter, Arraez is a rental bat playing a lower-value defensive position, which should keep the acquisition cost below the Flewelling/Hopkins tier discussed previously. I think it starts with one of the players in the third tier of prospects I mentioned in my last write-up:

• SS Daniel Pierce
• C Caden Bodine
• RHP Michael Forret
• INF Cooper Flemming
• RHP Anderson Brito
• RHP Santiago Suarez
• RHP TJ Nichols

It might feel like a slight overpay to give up one of these guys to get a rental bat, but that’s generally what happens heading into the trade deadline; the Rays would not just be trying to give something of value to land Arraez – they would be trying to make a better offer than several other teams. The Rays may even need to throw in an additional low-minors level lottery ticket type to get the deal done.

The appeal of a move like this is that it addresses a legitimate need without materially changing the organization’s long-term outlook. Arraez would deepen the lineup for a postseason run, the acquisition cost should remain manageable, and the Rays would still retain enough prospect depth to address other needs before the deadline.

The Yankees eked out a win on Thursday to avoid being swept by the Guardians, largely on the back of an excellent start from Carlos Rodón. Rodón held Cleveland to a run on two hits and three walks against seven strikeouts in six innings. That makes it three straight starts by the veteran southpaw of at least five innings and just one run allowed, lowering his season ERA to 2.88 through five outings. There as a moment in the fourth inning that I felt showcased the Rodón of old, earning the nod for Sequence of the Week.

We join Rodón with no outs in the top of the fourth, facing Travis Bazzana. There are runners on first and second and no one out after José Ramírez led off with a single followed by a Rhys Hoskins walk. Bazzana was selected first overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, made his debut at the end of April, and has been one of the Guardians’ most productive hitters with a 128 wRC+ entering play, lauded for his bat-to-ball skills and all fields approach. Given the way the Yankees offense had been struggling in the wake of Aaron Judge’s broken rib, it became imperative that Rodón silence this threat.

Rodón starts Bazzana with an elevated 96 mph four-seamer.

This is exactly the type of fastball that Rodón was known for at the very peak of his powers — high velocity, late life, and pinpointed right to the top shelf of the strike zone. Bazzana has no shot at catching up with this heater and whiffs underneath it late.

Now that Bazzana has shown a willingness to swing at a fastball up and in, the logical follow-up pitch would be a slider down and away that starts down a similar tunnel before dropping off the table late.

Unfortunately, Rodón is a little too high with his release point. The slider therefore exits his hand looking like a ball well above the strike zone and never looks like a strike during its path toward home, making for an easy take from Bazzana.

Given how good the first pitch fastball must have felt coming out of Rodón’s hand, it is no surprise to see him return to the heat here to get back ahead in the count after the mis-executed slider.

He nails almost the exact same location as the first four-seamer he threw and the end result is effectively the same. Bazzana is late with his swing and underneath a pitch that just doesn’t drop as much as he is expecting thanks to its excellent life, fouling it back over the screen for strike two.

With the count to two strikes, Rodón instantly goes for the kill with his typical put-away pitch against lefties — the slider low and away. The question is whether he can make the mid-AB adjustment from the first one he threw.

The answer, as it turns out, was no. Rodón sails another slider, this one even worse than the first. It’s almost like the pitch slips out of his hand with how high it lands. This is about as non-competitive a 1-2 slider as you are going to see and about as automatic a take as Bazzana could hope for with the count leverage so overwhelmingly not in his favor.

Following two substantial misses with the slider this AB, I’ll admit I was surprised to see Rodón double up on the pitch in this spot.

That’s now three sliders and three pieces of poor execution. This pitch starts aimed at Bazzana’s front shoulder, the late glove-side movement and Bazzana’s evasive maneuvers combining to prevent this from being a hit-by-pitch.

Rodón has worked himself into a spot of bother with those two sliders, going from fully in the driver’s seat, 1-2, to being a ball away from walking the bases loaded with no outs. It becomes obvious from this point forward that all Bazzana is going to see is four-seamers, a fact of which I’m sure the hitter is fully aware. That being said, Bazzana has not shown in this encounter that he has the ability to put Rodón’s fastball in play, provided that Rodón keeps hitting his spot at the top of the zone.

That’s exactly what Rodón does, unleashing his third perfectly executed four-seamer of the AB. This pitch just nips the top of the zone, meaning Bazzana has to swing or risk being punched out looking. However, he has not made the adjustment to his swing path to be able to get on top of this pitch, and once again all he is able to do is fight it off foul despite knowing exactly what is coming.

With Bazzana’s eyes clearly set for the elevated four-seamer but with no other pitch he can reasonably throw in this spot, there is an opportunity for Rodón to exploit what Bazzana is hunting by climbing the ladder a little higher than the previous pitch, in effect throwing the pitch that the hitter wants him to but in a spot that is just out of reach.

Talk about a literal perfect pitch. Rodón elevates this four-seamer ever so slightly higher than the previous one, and this time Bazzana can’t fight it off to stay alive. This is such an enticing pitch given it is over the plate, and it’s close enough to the top shelf of the zone that Bazzana is forced to swing. But Rodón commands it inside enough such that the hitter is not given a chance to get extended, which would make it easier to foul off, and the heater handcuffs Bazzana as he whiffs underneath for a huge first out of the inning.

Here’s the full sequence:

This snapshot is as good as I can remember Rodón’s four-seamer in pinstripes. Over the spring, he talked about how the bone spurs were preventing him from really letting lose and throwing the pitch with full conviction in 2025. The pitch currently sports its highest whiff rate (25%) during his time with the Yankees with a little extra velocity and almost an inch less drop than last year, taking the pitch from a 104 Stuff+ grade to 108.

This was also a bit of a “welcome to the big leagues” moment of sorts for Bazzana, who has been otherwise great thus far for the Guardians. Look at that tight grouping of heaters at top of strike zone. The final four-seamer for the strikeout was 97 mph with 18 inches of induced vertical break, both elite marks that the Cleveland rookie will have to get used to seeing in the majors. Bazzana has done most of his damage off the off-speed in his young career, so the attack plan of heaters up and me confirms that Rodón and J.C. Escarra read the scouting report.

Lastly, I liked seeing the mid-game adjustment when it became obvious Rodón had no feel for the slider. Most of his sliders including the three in this AB sailed high, which tells me that Rodón hasn’t quite found the release point that made the pitch so deadly last year. It looks to me that he’s not quite finishing the pitch all the way out in front, which should be something to monitor in his next start. All the same, this AB tells me that Rodón is pretty much all the way back from his injury and can even improve upon his stellar results from last year, which would make it four straight seasons of getting better than the year before.

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For today's busy slate, I've found the value in the MLB player props home run market.

I'll include Michael Massey, Isaac Paredes, and Andrew Benintendi.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 6.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Michael Massey	+640
Isaac Paredes	+510
Andrew Benintendi	+435
💲Today's HR parlay	+24702

Home run pick: Michael Massey (+640)

He may not be a household name, but Michael Massey is torching baseballs right now.

He has three homers in his last six games and a 47.6% hard-hit rate during that span. The 21.2-degree average launch angle over the last week also stands out, and it's particularly important for this matchup.

Joe Ryan takes the hill for the Minnesota Twins, and he's allowed a 43.2% hard-hit rate across his last two outings. Additionally, 47.2% of the contact against him during that stretch has come through the air, with 17.6% of those fly balls leaving the yard.

With Massey consistently generating hard contact and lift, and Ryan struggling to keep the ball on the ground lately, this is an appealing spot for another long ball.

I'll play this pick up to +600.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, Twins.TV

Home run pick: Isaac Paredes (+510)

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes has an astounding .550 ISO over his last six games, and it's no surprise that he's also gone deep three times.

But it gets better.

He also owns a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate over the last week, with an average launch angle just above 20 degrees.

The matchup tonight will see him face Athletics rookie Kade Morris, who is making his big-league debut. While there's limited data on Morris at this level, he did allow eight home runs across 11 Triple-A starts before his promotion.

That's far from ideal against a hitter swinging the bat as well as Paredes.

With the Astros third baseman consistently generating elite power numbers, this looks like another favorable spot for a long ball. I'll play this pick up to +450.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Space City Home Network

Home run pick: Andrew Benintendi (+435)

Andrew Benintendi has a .500 ISO across his previous six contests, along with a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate. The Chicago White Sox slugger is consistently squaring up the baseball, and he'll face Philadelphia Phillies starter Andrew Painter this afternoon.

Painter has given up 1.86 home runs per nine innings across his last two appearances, while opponents have generated a 36.4% hard-hit rate against him. Additionally, 51% of the contact against Painter during that span has come through the air.

His 5.32 xFIP also suggests he's been vulnerable lately.

While Benintendi's fly-ball rate over the last week sits just below 40%, his recent power surge is difficult to ignore. If Painter continues allowing elevated contact, Benintendi has a strong opportunity to take advantage.

I'll play this pick up to +400.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Today’s HR parlay

Michael Massey	Bet Now +24702
Isaac Paredes
Andrew Benintendi

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