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The strange journey of the 2026 Orioles season continues, now with the team just one game back of .500 for the first time since the end of April. A whole lot of baseball has happened between now and then. A lot of that baseball was bad in May and June. Things have gone a bit better starting around mid-July, and now the Orioles have won five of their last six to keep themselves in a decent position.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’m trying not to get too excited about the Orioles having just swept the Athletics. After all, those were all ugly wins, and there are still concerns to be had about a big chunk of the lineup on a nightly basis, to say nothing else of other problems that are either ongoing or could flare up at any moment. Nothing is settled, except that with 25 games left, the Orioles have about a 25% chance to make it. That’s better than it looked like this season would go a few months ago.

I also go into the mailbag for some thoughts on the motivations behind trading Adley Rutschman. It’s easier to talk about now that close to a month has passed and the fresh feeling of shock has faded. Plus, y’know, he really hasn’t looked good yet for the Red Sox. I feel bad for him but I don’t feel bad for the Red Sox.

Check out the latest episode here:

If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.

This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.

For the second time in as many appearances, San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller allowed a home run that changed the outcome of a game. Last week, he allowed a solo home run to Oneil Cruz which allowed the Pittsburgh Pirates to get a 1-0 win over the Padres. Miller allowed a two-run home run to Jonny DeLuca on Sunday which allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to tie the game in the ninth. The end result was a 5-4 extra-innings loss for San Diego, resulting in a three-game sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay.

Miller came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning and allowed a single to Junior Caminero. That in and of itself was no big deal, the Padres had a two-run lead with their All-Star closer on the mound and after all, it was just a single. Miller bounced back to strikeout Liam Hicks and got Chandler Simpson to line out to put San Diego one out away from avoiding a sweep. DeLuca made the sweep a possibility with a fly ball to the left field corner that was actually caught by Samad Taylor before he crashed into the short outfield wall and the ball broke free from his glove and went over for a game-tying two-run home run. Miller struck out Jorge Mateo to end the inning one batter later, but the game was tied 3-3 and was heading to extra innings.

Bunting issues became prevalent yet again for the Padres in extra innings when Jake Cronenworth led off the top of the 10th inning with a failed bunt attempt that resulted in a pop out. The automatic runner Jase Bowen was then thrown out trying to steal third and Manny Machado struck out to end the inning, giving the Rays a chance to win in the bottom of the 10th.

Yuki Matsui continued his recent run of success and came up with a clutch scoreless inning to send the game to the 11th. Matsui struck out Cedric Mullins and then Mateo, the automatic runner stole third base. Matsui then struck out Taylor Walls for the second out of the inning. He walked Yandy Diaz to put runners on the corners but then got Jonathan Aranda to fly out to Jackson Merrill in center field to keep the game tied, 3-3.

In the top of the 11th, San Diego took advantage of a wild pitch, which allowed Manny Machado to advance to third base with no outs in the inning. Ty France brought him home on a sacrifice fly and the Padres took a 4-3 lead. Merrill and Xander Bogaerts each struck out to end the inning, but San Diego was in line for the second time in the game to win if they could prevent Tampa Bay from scoring in the bottom of the inning.

David Morgan replaced Matsui and struck out Caminero to start the bottom of the 11th. He then allowed a single to Liam Hicks to put runners on the corners with one out. Kenny Piper came in the run for Hicks and promptly stole second base to put two Rays in scoring position. Morgan intentionally walked Simpson to load the bases, but then a fielding error on a ground ball to Bogaerts on the turf in front of shortstop allowed the tying run to score and keep the bases loaded. With the game tied 4-4, Morgan allowed Mateo to hit a line drive to left field, which got over the head of Taylor to give the Padres their third consecutive loss, the second of the series where they had the lead late in the game. It would not have made a difference if Taylor were to have caught the liner rather than have it go over his head, the runner from third would have been able to tag up on the play and score.

San Diego will lick its wounds from a disappointing weekend in Tampa Bay as the Padres head to Cincinnati to take on the Reds today at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and manager Craig Stammen were ejected from the series finale with the Rays after Tatis was called out for running out of the baseline. It was a call the certainty impacted the game and resulted in the second career ejection for Tatis.

• Nick Pivetta looked dominant in his latest rehab start for the El Paso Chihuahuas in Oklahoma City.

• Luis Rengifo and Gavin Sheets were sent to the IL before the final game against the Rays. Samad Taylor and Sung-Mun Song were called up to the big-league club.

Baseball News:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong stays hot but cannot lead the Chicago Cubs to a win over the Cincinnati Reds.

• The New York Yankees took the season series over the Boston Red Sox with a blowout win.

• The Atlanta Braves walked off the Colorado Rockies to win their seventh in a row.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers got a series win over the Detroit Tigers.

• Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler delivered a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels.

• Curacao won the Little League World Series title.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (47%) have been one of the most successful home teams in the majors, winning 40 of 69 games at home.

My Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks expect their home cooking to continue in tonight's series opener on Aug. 31.

First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.

Who will win Phillies vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks (47%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Aaron Nola’s improved results over the past six starts coincide with a steep decrease in opponent quality. 

Each team he faced is sub .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture. He has faced only three playoff teams since June 6, and they've scored 13 runs over just 14 1/3 innings.

The Arizona Diamondbacks represent a step up in class from what Nola has seen of late. They’re nearly 10 games over .500 and sit ninth in xwOBA vs. righties this month.

They should provide Brandon Pfaadt enough support to pull off the upset. Play to 51%.

COVERS INTEL:Pfaadt has allowed 0.82 HR/9 at home. His strong power suppression will be very useful against a Phillies squad sitting 11th in homers.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)

Pfaadt has gotten touched up the last couple of starts, but his underlying profile remains very strong.

He’s allowed hard contact just 27.3% of the time over the past 30 days. He has also posted a 4.3% barrel rate, both of which rank him second among today’s starting pitchers.

His ability to limit quality contact will serve him well against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies lineup. While Nola has benefited from a soft schedule, he has taken full advantage with a 3.14 SIERA in his past five starts.

The pitching should be good, making the Under an appealing buy to 55%.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Corbin Carroll (16%)

Nola has allowed more power to lefties than righties, and Corbin Carroll is well equipped to do damage against what he throws.

Nola relies most heavily on the knuckle curve, also throwing fastballs and changeups at a healthy rate.

Carroll has a .300 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against the knuckle curve — albeit over a small sample — and ISOs above .230 facing the other two pitches.

Carroll’s average exit velocity and barrel rate against Nola’s mix have also risen over his last 25 at-bats.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather

Game will be played indoors.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Phillies 54% | Diamondbacks 47%
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (40%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (61%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend

Arizona has hit the moneyline in 27 of the last 45 games (+11.40 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Phillies vs Diamondbacks and game info

Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The dominant Tampa Bay Rays lineup draws a dream spot against a struggling Robert Stock when the New York Mets visit Tropicana Field, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET

Tampa is a heavy favorite at a 62% implied probability on the moneyline, and the pitching mismatch shapes my Mets vs. Rays predictions.

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31.

Who will win Mets vs Rays today: Rays -1.5 (43%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Robert Stock gives the Tampa Bay Rays a clear path to winning by multiple runs, and at 43%, I prefer the Rays run line to paying 62% on the moneyline. Stock has been dreadful this season, carrying a 7.40 ERA while opponents hit .307 against him.

His 4.90 xERA suggests he’s pitched a bit better than that ugly number, but even the kinder mark leaves a wide gap behind a locked-in Ian Seymour and a Tampa Bay staff that has been dominant lately.

If Seymour and the bullpen keep the New York Mets around two or three runs, Stock hands the Rays a clean path to the 5-2 or 6-3 result we need. 

I’d play Tampa Bay -1.5 to 46%.

COVERS INTEL:  Ian Seymour has settled into a groove, posting a 3.20 ERA with 49 strikeouts across 39 1/3 innings over his last seven appearances.

Mets vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The Under at 8.5 is the play, built on the Rays’ pitching edge and a Mets offense that hasn’t done enough lately. New York is batting just .242 with 8.2 hits per game over its last 10, and while it has shown some pop, it hasn’t strung together the sustained scoring a big number requires.

The other side of the handicap is Tampa Bay’s own bats, which have cooled. The Rays are hitting .234 with a .347 slugging and 7.7 hits per game over their last 10, so something like five or six Rays runs is more likely than an eight-run outburst.

The market context is useful, too. The broader market has this game at 8.0 runs, so the 8.5 we’re getting is a meaningful extra half-run, especially when the likeliest Tampa Bay-winning scores are 5-2, 5-3, or 6-2.

I’d play the Under to 57%. At 8.0, I’d pass.

Mets vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (24%)

Junior Caminero hit his 37th home run on Sunday — pushing his hitting streak to 13 games — and he’s been Tampa Bay’s hottest bat, hitting .378 over his last 10 games. 

His contact profile backs the power, headlined by a 93.0 mph average exit velocity and a 13.1% barrel rate. Caminero can attack Stock’s cutter, four-seamer, and sinker, which make up roughly 79% of his arsenal.

At 24%, we’re paying for Caminero’s status as Tampa Bay’s premier power threat, but the matchup justifies making him the selection over a longer shot.

I’d play Caminero to 26% for a quarter unit.

Mets vs Rays weather

Tropicana Field is a fixed-dome ballpark, so weather is a non-factor tonight. 

Mets vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Mets 39% | Rays 62%
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (56%) | Rays -1.5 (43%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (55%)

Mets vs Rays trend

Tampa Bay’s pitching staff owns a 2.80 ERA over its last 10 games, a run of dominance that backs both the Rays run line and the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rays.

How to watch Mets vs Rays and game info

Mets vs Rays latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

With their 8-5 win over the Athletics on Sunday afternoon, the Orioles improved to just one game under .500 for the first time since April 30. The four months in between have included a tumble down the standings, a roster sell-off, and now a renaissance on the field. It remains to be seen whether the Orioles can come all the way back, earn themselves a winning record, and eventually a spot in the playoffs. But regardless, their recent form has at least given us a glimpse of what they were supposed to be all summer long.

Back at the end of June, the Orioles were 39-48, fives games back of the final wild card spot in the American League. They needed to leapfrog five teams in order to get back into a playoff position.

Since then, the team is 29-21, outscoring opponents by 20 runs in total, and closing the gap in the wild card race to just one game. Nine of the 25 games left on their schedule will come against the Guardians and Blue Jays, the two teams closest to them in the standings, placing the Orioles firmly in control of their own fate. That alone is a surprising accomplishment given where they once sat in the junior circuit hierarchy.

Just about every aspect of this Orioles team has turned around in the last two months, starting with the lineup.

The team’s 104 wRC+ in that time is sixth in MLB, which has been helped by the 68 home runs (sixth in MLB) they have hit. Pete Alonso has been one of the sport’s best hitters, leading the team with a 168 wRC+ and 13 home runs. Coby Mayo may have turned the corner, boasting a 147 wRC+ with nine home runs. And Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been a lifesaver with his 122 wRC+ and seven homers. Slight improvements from Gunnar Henderson (103 wRC+) and Colton Cowser (101 wRC+) have also helped, as has Craig Albernaz’s openness to switching up his lineup with more regularity in recent weeks. The offense is more dynamic, less predictable, and generally more productive.

Looking at August alone, some of the individual performances have been even more impressive. Alonso (193 wRC+), Cowser (148 wRC+), Mayo (143 wRC+), and Henderson (140 wRC+) have been on fire, as has Dylan Beavers (128 wRC+). But the overall offense has been slightly worse (101 wRC+) due to dips in form from Encarnacion-Strand and Jackson Holliday, among others.

The 2026 Orioles were built with an expectation that the offense would carry the load most days. That has not come to fruition, not even with their improved recent play. But, if Alonso and Henderson continue to play up to their expected level, Mayo, Cowser, and Encarnacion-Strand can be quality depth, and the likes of Holliday, Beavers, Samuel Basallo, and Blaze Alexander can rediscover some of their earlier form, then this is going to be a lineup that is tough to beat the next four weeks.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff is also rounding into form, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

Since the start of July, Orioles starting pitchers are 12th in MLB in fWAR (4.3), 18th in ERA (4.18), 13th in FIP (3.97), and ninth in xFIP (3.84). Those numbers are not incredible, but they are competent. That’s exactly what a wild card hopeful needs down the stretch.

More crucially, if the Orioles are going to be a playoff team, is that they have three or four starting arms that you feel comfortable turning to for at least five innings a pop. That seems to be the case right now. Shane Baz (2.60 FIP since July 1), Trevor Rogers (3.36 FIP), and Kyle Bradish (3.92 FIP) each have Cy Young upside that they have flashed on occasion. Not to be forgotten, Brandon Young (3.72 ERA since July 1) consistently turns in solid outings, and is tied for the team lead in wins.

There are certainly better rotations out there, including some of the teams that the Orioles will be battling for a playoff spot down the stretch. But this team’s depth in the starting staff is enviable and puts them in position to be a tough out should they get to the playoffs.

What could act as a multiplier for the rotation is their support staff in the bullpen. Somehow, the Orioles have built out one of the hottest relief groups in baseball. Since the start of July, they rank in the top four of MLB in ERA (3.10), xERA (3.13), and FIP (3.50). The key to their success has been keeping the ball in the park. Their 0.59 home run per nine inning rate is the best in MLB since July 1.

It’s an unconventional group. With both Ryan Helsley and Félix Bautista on the mend, as well as the trading away of Tyler Wells in the beginning of August, the Orioles lack an obvious closer. Andrew Kittredge has stepped into the role most often, but Cam Sanders, Rico Garcia, Yennier Cano, Grant Wolfram, and Alex Hoppe each have at least one save in recent weeks.

A club that can throw so many different arms at you in late innings can be a tough one to match up against. Opposing teams can’t be sure of which reliever they will get in a given scenario. Albernaz has committed to riding the hot hand and finding favorable matchups. Lately that has meant an outsized role for someone like Hoppe or the recently-recalled Anthony Nunez, but nothing is written in stone.

The potential returns of Helsley and Bautista add another wrinkle. Should they be deemed ready, it won’t necessarily feel right for the Orioles to anoint either one as the unquestioned ninth inning arm. But being able to turn to two proven, veteran closers late in games isn’t something that many other bullpens have the option of doing.

The Orioles still have a lot of work to do. They have dug themselves quite a hole, and there is no guarantee that they will successfully dig all the way out it. But their turnaround is not confined to this recent 7-2 stretch that has seen them win series against the Rays, Cardinals, and now Athletics. It goes back two months, seen them survive a disappointing trade deadline, and come out on the other side with a little more swagger and the chance to right all of the wrongs they have dealt with throughout the regular season. You can’t ask for much more from a season that, at one point, seemed like it was headed off a cliff. Instead, these Orioles will be playing meaningful baseball deep into September at least.

Since acquiring Luis Arraez in a deadline day trade with the Giants, the Phillies have played really well. There was a patch of lethargy of course, but for the most part, Arraez has seemingly been exactly what they needed in the lineup.

Even the defense has been good!

While the season is still in progress, we have to at least ask the question as the calendar begins to flip to September: should the Phillies re-sign Arraez once the season ends? There are different machinations that would have to happen and the length of the deal would be a key aspect of it all, but the team does look like a better version when he is in the lineup.

I have strong feelings about this that will be its own separate post at some point, probably this week. But, what do you think? We’re five-sixths-ish of the way done with the season on a calendar month basis, and the Braves are very good in terms of record… but the way they’ve gotten there has been somewhere between bizarre and absurd. It’s like getting the right answer on an algebra test by doing everything kinda wrong, in some ways… but not in others.

Would you describe this team as particularly weird? And if so, why?

Good morning.

MLB dot com’s Zach Sweet writes about Ezequiel Duran leading the way for the Texas Rangers in Sunday’s series finale victory over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Evan Grant ponders not just Duran’s standing as the Rangers’ best player this season, but where he stands in the AL MVP race.

Grant writes about relievers Carter Baumler and Robert Garcia getting back on the mound for rehab assignments after being out since April.

And, for no particular reason, check out Sebastian Walcott’s fifth Double-A dinger in basically a month’s worth of playing time since his season debut:

Have a nice day!

It’s becoming clear again that Cubs left-hander Shōta Imanaga is not going to be able to be trusted with a start in a postseason game.

Imanaga has had his moments on the North Side, to be sure, but Sunday night’s game was not one of them, unless you are a Reds player or fan. Imanaga served up three home runs to the Reds and that turned out to be enough for a 7-5 Cincinnati win.

The game began 25 minutes late due to a late-afternoon round of rain, and in fact, it rained lightly for the first two innings. Raise your hand if you’ve had enough of the rain in Chicago this summer — one of the rainiest I can remember.

The Cubs, though, had the first homer of the game — yet another leadoff blast from Pete Crow-Armstrong [VIDEO].

That ball was crushed! [VIDEO]

Leadoff homer fact from BCB’s JohnW53:

PCA’s homer was the ninth of his career in the first inning with nobody on and nobody out, tying him with Brian McRae for the fifth most by a Cub.

Alfonso Soriano hit 22; Rick Monday, 17; Dexter Fowler, 12; and Ian Happ, 11.

All of PCA’s have come this season, six of them since Aug. 5.

Soriano hit 12 in 2007; Monday, eight in 1976; and Fowler, seven in 2016.

Soriano’s 12 in 2007 is the franchise record for a single season. The MLB record for such things is 15, set by Kyle Schwarber in 2024. Who knows?

The Cubs put another run on the board in the second. Ian Happ led off with a single and advanced to second on a single by Nico Hoerner. Hoerner was forced at second by Pedro Ramirez, with Happ taking third.

This single by Michael Conforto scored Happ [VIDEO].

Imanaga had breezed through the first three innings, but got himself in trouble with a one-out walk in the fourth. One out later, Matt McLain singled and Hector Rodriguez smashed a three-run homer to give the Reds the lead.

The Cubs tied the game up in the bottom of that inning. Happ led off with a walk and went to second on Hoerner’s second hit of the game.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

Happ was advancing to third on Ramirez’s deep fly to right, but Rodriguez’s throw got away and Happ scored, making it 3-3.

That lead lasted about five minutes, because Dane Myers led off the fifth with a homer. An infield hit and an out later, Tyler Stephenson smacked a two-run homer to make it 6-3 Reds.

The fifth inning was it for Imanaga; he allowed eight hits and six runs, and the three homers gave him 33 allowed for the season, a career high. He also now leads MLB in home runs allowed. This was after Craig Counsell flipped Imanaga and Kevin Gausman in the rotation to give Shōta an extra rest day. To me, it’s an open question as to what to do with Imanaga the rest of the way, never mind the postseason.

Facts about the three homers surrendered by Imanaga from John:

This was the 24th game of the season in which the Cubs surrendered at least three home runs. They had 26 such games a year ago, 19 in 2024, 21 in 2023, 25 in 2022 and 31 in 2021.

Those 31 are the team record, ahead of 29 in 2000 and 28 in 1999.

The 24 this year are the third most by any team, behind the Athletics’ 30 (including one Sunday) and the Nationals’ 27.

Another not-so-fun fact about all the Imanaga homers:

So the Cubs are down three heading to the sixth. They had the first two runners on in that inning thanks to another Reds error with Alex Bregman batting, and a single by Happ. But the next three Cubs went down in order.

Trent Thornton threw the seventh and retired the first two Reds easily before presumptive NL Rookie of the Year Sal Stewart homered, the Reds’ fourth of the game, to make it 7-3. More dismaying home runs allowed facts from John:

The Cubs now are tied with the Athletics for the most home runs allowed, 208. Both have played 137 games.
They are on a pace to give up 246, which would be the 13th most in any season, two behind the 2017 Reds and 2019 Yankees, tied for 10th.

The record is 305 by the 2019 Orioles, then 270 by the Rockies, 267 by the Angels and 260 by the Mariners, all also in 2019.

The Cubs’ high is 235, in 2021, followed by 231, in 2000, and 221, in 1999.

As you can see, the three seasons in which the Cubs allowed the most home runs were all very bad years. Only the very good Cubs offense — leading MLB in runs with 725, on pace for 857 — has prevented this year from being like that.

The Cubs did attempt to mount a comeback. Bregman led off the eighth with a double. He advanced to third on a ground out and scored on this sac fly by Hoerner [VIDEO].

Aaron Civale and Jacob Webb had kept the game (relatively) close with scoreless innings in the eighth and ninth. The first two Cubs went down quickly in the ninth.

And then PCA delivered one last thrill [VIDEO].

The five home runs in consecutive games tied the MLB record for such things. You can see all the players who have done that here. As for Cubs doing that, from John:

Pete Crow-Armstrong is just the fifth Cub to hit a total of five home runs in back-to-back games.

Cap Anson did it Aug. 5-6, 1884 (two and three); Billy Williams, Sept. 8 and 10, 1968 (two and three); Dave Kingman, July 27-28, 1979 (two and three); and Dansby Swanson, June 30-July 1 this year (three and two).

Fun, though too little too late, and Seiya Suzuki flied out to end the game.

PCA now has 38 home runs. It’s worth noting that puts him very close to a pair of Cubs milestones. First, it has been 21 years since any Cub has had a 40-homer season — Derrek Lee hit 46 in 2005. Also, only one Cubs left-handed hitter has ever had a 40-homer season — Billy Williams, who hit 42 in 1970. That’s how special this season is for the Cubs center fielder, whose WAR figures now sit at 8.5 (baseball-reference) and 9.3 (Fangraphs).

Also, he’s also a strong candidate for NL Player of the Week after batting .321/.345/.893 (9-for-28) with a double, the five home runs, eight RBI and six runs scored — and also NL Player of the Month, having batted .283/.372/.726 (32-for-113) in August with six doubles, a triple, 14 home runs, 28 RBI and 28 runs scored, with one game remaining this month.

You’re watching a special season from PCA, one of the greatest years in Cubs franchise history. Savor every moment. One more PCA fun fact:

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame remarks [VIDEO].

As for the Cubs? They should not be losing series at home to the Cincinnati Reds, but here we are. They are now tied with the Phillies for the top wild card spot, for which, thankfully, they have the tiebreaker. It will certainly be an interesting stretch run, with 25 games remaining.

And it won’t get any easier beginning tonight at Wrigley Field, when the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers come to town to start a four-game series. At eight games behind, the Cubs can probably forget about winning the NL Central and just focus on winning games to keep that top wild card spot. For Monday’s series opener vs. Milwaukee, it’ll be Clay Holmes against Kyle Harrison. Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Very little has gone right for Detroit’s bullpen this year. The three veteran closing options have all underwhelmed, or in Will Vest’s suffered injuries, and many of the optionable depth arms they’ve relied on in the past have struggled, too. Amidst those struggles, one surprising candidate has emerged as perhaps AJ Hinch’s most reliable option: Drew Sommers.

Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays for a DFA’d Mason Englert two winters ago, the pre-season book on Sommers was fairly common: big lefty with a good fastball, a quality slider, and poor command. His low arm angle and huge extension helped the fastball get past minor leaguers, but mediocre strike throwing and inconsistent secondaries seemed to limit him to a likely low leverage role. That’s certainly how his brief 3-inning debut in 2025 looked, and he was pretty buried on the 2026 depth chart to begin the year.

The 2026 season looked to be a bit more of the same early on, as the big lefty really struggled with his command. He was called up on May 28th due to Kenley Jansen’s groin injury and showed off both his contact-suppression skills and bouts of wildness. From the time he debuted through the end of June, his 34.3% K rate was the highest on the team, but his 11.4% walk rate was behind only Jansen’s 11.5%. He wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough to hang onto while other lefties like Brant Hurter were injured and the bullpen as a whole started to crumble.

Since July 1, though, Sommers has been a different beast. Over his last two months of games, Sommers has pushed that strikeout rate from good to elite at 38.0%, 5th best in the league among relievers with 20 innings or more. At the same time, his walk rate has dropped down toward average at 9.9%. He’s also allowing fewer home runs and running a groundball rate almost 50% higher than he was in May and June, two of the best things you can do to prevent a big inning.

How’s he doing this, you might ask? He’s throwing harder, basically.

I don’t mean to oversimplify things, but really, that’s the biggest thing I can see in terms of tangible changes to his stuff. His velocity has trended up all year from about average for a lefty reliever at 94 to up above 95, touching 97, which he just was not doing in May and June. Of course, with velocity comes confidence, and vice versa.

Certainly it’s not just the added velocity alone, but the ability to miss more bats in the zone and get away with a few more mistakes has been good for his heart rate on the mound. His zone percentage was 50 percent with a first pitch strike rate of 54.3percent from the beginning of the season to June 30. Since that point, he’s thrown 48.5 percent of pitches in the zone, but the Tigers have gotten him to attack the zone early in counts, with a whopping 69.8 percent first pitch strike rate.

When a young pitcher starts trusting their stuff, good things happen. Sommers’ velocity boost has made him more fearless in attacking the zone and getting ahead of hitters. Once he’s ahead, it’s easier to get hitters to expand the zone to chase heaters off the plate or his sweeping slider. Young pitchers are always trying to repeat their mechanics consistently, but that focus on trying to repeat your delivery is often counterproductive. Finding a way to relax and just attack the zone more is the path to better strike throwing, and often to unlocking a little more velocity as well. Sommers knows he can trust his heater at the major league level now, and with that added velocity he’s been able to pound the zone with sinkers and fourseamers early in counts with a lot less fear of failure. As they say, the most important pitch in baseball is strike one.

As a lefty who is still fairly inexperienced, Sommers doesn’t really profile as a future closer type at the moment. He certainly may handle some save chances, and with the season basically over from a competitive standpoint, it would probably be a good idea to put him in that spot a couple of times if possible to acclimate him. Even so, his profile probably works best as a lefty fireman, coming in to get groundballs and whiffs in tight spots. However they deploy him, it’s been a few years since the Tigers found an exciting high leverage relief option. Drew Sommers looks like that guy right now, and for a team that badly needs an overhauled and fortified bullpen, his emergence could be a big piece of the puzzle for 2027 and beyond.