If you had any doubts as to whether or not the Pittsburgh Penguins believe in Ville Koivunen, you can forget about it.
At least for now.
The Penguins showed everybody on Thursday morning that they do, in fact, believe in Koivunen, at least to some degree, by signing him an eight-year, $32 million contract extension with a $4 million salary cap number per season.
It’s a stunning bet that comes with some serious sticker shock.
It’s a max-term deal for a guy that’s played less than 50 games in the NHL and has scored only two goals.
You didn’t have that on your radar today. Nobody did. It is one of those deals where I had to read the press release five times and check the social media account with intense scrutiny to make sure it was real before I commented on it. Remember back when fake Twitter accounts posting fake trades and signings were a thing? The “Perguins” acquired every player in the NHL one summer.
I thought this was the Perguins.
But, no, it was in fact the actual Pittsburgh Penguins, and it is in fact a real contract.
So let’s try to make some sense of this.
It’s a gamble. That’s it. They are gambling that Koivunen realizes his potential, becomes an NHL regular, and slots somewhere into the middle of the lineup (or higher). If he does, it would become an insanely team-friendly contract in the future under the rising cap.
A $4 million cap-hit in 2026-27 would be the equivalent to a $3.3 million contract under the $88 million cap from a couple of years ago.
Under next year’s $113 million cap it would be the equivalent of a $3.1 million deal.
Assuming the cap goes up into the $120 million range after that, and every year beyond that, the value keeps going on that same trajectory. I don’t think you’re prepared for how small a $4 million cap hit is going to be in the future.
Honestly, the dollar amount isn’t even close to the main concern. Not now, and probably not even in the future. Not only because of the cap around the league and the way it is climbing, but also because the Penguins have almost nobody signed long-term. I said this about the Tommy Novak deal as well; this team has NOBODY signed. That doesn’t mean you just throw money at anybody, but at some point you’re going to have to fill out a roster and pay somebody. Even if Koivunen busts a $4 million cap hit in six or seven years is going to be on the low end of NHL contracts.
Koivuen also doesn’t need to be a top-line player for this contract to pay for itself long-term. I honestly think everybody is setting too high of a bar for what Koivunen has to be for this to be worth it. Your brain is still instinctively working on a sub-$90 million salary cap from the past two decades.
He really just needs to be a capable middle-six player.
If he becomes anything more than that, it’s a steal.
His ability to actually become even THAT level of player, as well as the term itself, are the big parts of the gamble.
In some ways, I can kind of see why the Penguins have that level of faith in Koivunen.
There is obvious talent. He is still only 23 years old. He has been wildly productive in the American Hockey League. He is also coming off a season where he posted some of the best underlying and possession-metrics in the league. And that is not an exaggeration or hyperbole.
There were 397 forwards that played at least 450 minutes in the NHL this season.
Koivunen ranked 16th in that group in expected goal share, 25th in total shot attempt share, 11th in scoring chance share, 26th in high-danger scoring chance share and 84th in expected goals per 60 minutes.
He played a lot of sheltered minutes in terms of offensive zone starts, but he didn’t really have the highest quality linemates at times. Even so, when he was on the ice the puck was typically in the offensive zone and they were typically out-chancing their opponents.
It just never translated into actual goals. For him, or the team. And that became frustrating. But it’s also still a ridiculously small sample size.
The biggest thing I kept going back to is he always just seemed to be a half-second slow in releasing his shot. There were countless times he had himself in a good spot, but ended up having his shot blocked or deflected away because he couldn’t get it off in time. Maybe that’s a red flag for his ability to turn his AHL production into NHL production.
But there is still something to be said for being in the right spots, and in potential scoring spots.
Honestly, given that profile, his age, talent and the numbers, he is probably the exact type of player the Penguins would be looking to trade for if he played on another team. He fits that profile of a talented player with strong underlyings that simply hasn’t put everything together to produce results.
In this case the Penguins are not gambling future draft picks, they are gambling future salary cap space.
I am not sure where Koivunen slots in this season. I am not sure if there is another trade to happen that moves out a forward to open a more secure roster spot for him. I also don’t know how his career is going to develop, if he will keep posting great underlying numbers, or if it will turn into actual, tangible production. The Penguins seem to at least have some level of faith that he is going to take some sort of a step forward, if not this season, than in the seasons ahead.
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