Ranking 5 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament second round

Follow all of Saturday's NCAA Tournament second round games with USA TODAY Sports' live updates.

Day 1 of the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament provided college basketball fans with upsets. Day 2 was all chalk.

Now that the second round of March Madness has arrived, what will fans get on Saturday, March 21 and Sunday, March 22? We saw a couple of No. 1 seeds tested in the opening round, while the others cruised to victory.

We also saw some injuries in the first two days that could impact the rest of the tournament. Could Otega Oweh's first-round performance give Kentucky a shot in the arm to make a deep tournament run?

With four double-digit seeds in action in the Round of 32, could we see one of them squeeze their way into the Sweet 16? Here’s a look at the five most likely upsets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:

1. No. 7 Kentucky over No. 2 Iowa State

Why it could happen: Four words. Two players. Otega Oweh. Joshua Jefferson. Oweh is coming off a career-high performance with 35 points, while Jefferson suffered an ankle sprain minutes into the Cyclones' win over Tennessee State. If Jefferson is our hindered, who will step up for the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder?

Why it won't happen: Kentucky has proven to be inconsistent this season. The way the Wildcats won against Santa Clara could be the spark for the team to make a run. Or it's just another blip on the radar for a team that's spent a lot on its roster for inconsistent play.

2. No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn

Why it could happen: If not for a heroic effort from Tarris Reed Jr. (31 points, 27 rebounds), UConn would have been knocked out in the opening round by No. 15 Furman. Couple that with losses to Marquette and St. John's in the final four games, and the Huskies look vulnerable. The Bruins looked dominant against UCF, until the final minutes.

Why it won't happen: UConn is UConn and Dan Hurley gives them a shot. As does Reed, who was one of USA TODAY's potential breakout players to watch ahead of the NCAA Tournament. The question is, do the Bruins have an answer for him? We'll have to find out.

3. No. 11 Texas over No. 3 Gonzaga

Why it could happen: Gonzaga struggled putting Kennesaw State away on Thursday, and looks susceptible to a potential upset. Texas, meanwhile, seemed to cruise to victory over No. 6 BYU and talented freshman AJ Dybantsa. Could the Longhorns have found their footing?

Why it won't happen: Texas lost five of its last six games heading into the NCAA Tournament, while Gonzaga lost three games all season. Yes, the NCAA Tournament is a reset, but the regular season matters, too.

4. No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 1 Michigan

Why it could happen: Saint Louis arguably had the most impressive win of the first round, beating Georgia 102-77, which is not even indicative of the 40-point lead it once held. With Yaxel Lendeborg dealing with an ankle issue, the Billikens can apply pressure early and potentially have a shot to knock out a No. 1 seed.

Why it won't happen: Michigan is elite. The regular season proved that, and Dusty May has brought his program very far in just two years of leading it. Lendeborg, if healthy, is the best player on the court, and that helps in March when the pressure begins to build.

5. No. 9 Iowa over No. 1 Florida

Why it could happen: Florida's Achilles' heel could be its guard play. The Gators were exposed a little by Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. Iowa is led by AP All-American Honorable Mention Bennett Stirtz, who could cause problems for Boogie Fland and Xavien Lee to defend. The Hawkeyes play slow and can win if they dictate the pace.

Why it won't happen: The Gators are coming off one of the most dominant wins in NCAA Tournament history. Iowa cannot match up with Florida's big men, giving the Gators the opportunity for several second-chance plays. Ultimately, Florida is more talented and deeper than Iowa.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely second round surprises

Mets divulge season-opening rotation with Sean Manaea’s fate revealed

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea (59) walks off the field, Image 2 shows New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza wearing a red baseball cap and sunglasses
Sean Manaea

The Mets’ six-man rotation will be a five-plus to begin the season.

Sean Manaea has been squeezed to the bullpen for the first two times through the rotation, manager Carlos Mendoza said Saturday, leaving the veteran lefty in a piggyback role.

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Freddy Peralta, David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga are aligned to pitch the first time through the rotation.

Peralta is slated to return for Game 6, in St. Louis.

“Six guys throwing the ball really well and we were pretty honest with all of them at the beginning of camp that if everyone was healthy, we were going to have to make some tough decisions,” Mendoza said.

Off days early in the schedule preclude the Mets from needing a sixth starter immediately.

Manaea, whose velocity has dipped in spring training, was “not happy” with the decision, according to Mendoza.

Sean Manaea is the odd man out to start the season. Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

“But he was very respectful and he understood,” Mendoza said.

“Right now, it’s Sean doing it, but it could easily be somebody else, and they are well aware of that.”

Manaea was a weak link in the rotation last season, pitching to a 5.64 ERA in 15 appearances.

Carlos Mendoza said the Mets will start with a five-man rotation. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

He missed half of the season rehabbing from a strained oblique and elbow discomfort caused by a loose body.

Manea’s schedule to pitch will remain fluid, according to Mendoza, with no set spot in which he will piggyback a starter.

The Rochester Red Wings will be stacked to start the season

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Jacob Young #30 of the Washington Nationals, center, celebrates with teammates Robert Hassell III #57, left, and Dylan Crews #3, right, after a win against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 21, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Heather Khalifa/Getty Images) | Getty Images

If you are a Washington Nationals fan, I would recommend making a trip up to Rochester, New York this April. Recent demotions have made the Nats Triple-A affiliate one of the most fascinating in the minors. Dylan Crews being sent down solidified the Rochester Red Wings as being must see TV.

There are multiple former top 10 picks, an All-Star, and a top 100 prospect the Nationals acquired this offseason. The Rochester Red Wings have never been more interesting than they are right now. I am not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing, but they certainly have my attention. Let’s run through some of the big names down there and discuss when we could see them in DC.

Dylan Crews is the biggest name down there, so I want to start by talking about him. Despite a woeful spring, the decision to send Crews down was a surprise. Crews still has so much pedigree and is a massive name. Sending him down is a gutsy decision by the new regime. At the same time, it makes all the sense in the world.

When Crews was in Triple-A in 2024, he was good but not great. He posted a .795 OPS in 49 games with the Red Wings. That was enough for Mike Rizzo to call him up to the big leagues though. Crews was pretty clearly rushed, with Rizzo looking at his college pedigree rather than his relatively mediocre minor league numbers.

Now Crews will truly get a chance to master the level and develop properly. Rochester will be a good place for him to do that. Matthew LeCroy is a beloved manager up in Rochester and they also have a pair of strong hitting minds. Brian Daubach was retained as the Triple-A hitting coach, a role he has had since 2018. His experience will be combined with the new analytically minded assistant hitting coach Travis Fitta. Hopefully those two can help rebuild Crews.

However, Dylan Crews is far from the only interesting character in Rochester. There will also be a former All-Star in the Red Wings rotation to start the season. That would be Josiah Gray, who is back after missing most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery.

In the first half of 2023, Gray was emerging as part of the Nats long term plans in the rotation. Gray was part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner return and was looking like a middle of the rotation arm in 2023. There was some luck involved in his great first half, but he was still a dependable arm.

Now, he is on the mend, looking to re-establish himself after missing so much time. The 28 year old is very likely to get his shot in the Nats rotation at some point. However, he still needs to find some sharpness in AAA. His breaking stuff looks crisp, but his velocity is down from his pre-surgery levels. Gray is confident that velo will come with more reps.

Gray will be throwing to a big name catcher in Harry Ford. The Nats acquired Ford in a trade that sent Jose A. Ferrer to Seattle. After the trade, I figured Ford would be the starting catcher right away. He had a great year in Triple-A last year and made his big league debut. Ford was even on the Mariners playoff roster.

However, the Nats decided that he needed more seasoning. Ford did not light the world on fire this spring, so the team decided to roll with Keibert Ruiz instead. He also spent some time away from the team at the WBC, which may have hurt his case. Ford did have a couple big moments, including a homer for Great Britain at the event.

That was not enough for him to lock down a job though. If he has a strong start to the season, I think he could be in the big leagues pretty quickly. There could be some service time games being played here with Ford. If he is down for a few weeks, the Nats will gain an extra year of team control.

The young catcher had an .868 OPS in AAA last year, so I expect him to hit while he is in the minors. After years of bad catching, I am really excited to see what Ford can do when he gets to DC. We will have to watch him in Rochester first though.

Those three are far from the only intriguing players in Rochester. Another big name in AAA is Robert Hassell III. The former top 10 pick was a big piece in the Juan Soto trade and made his MLB debut last year. While Hassell struggled in the big leagues, he did hit .310 with an .839 OPS in AAA.

Hassell’s development has not gone as expected since coming to DC, but he is still just 24 years old. He showed some of the hitting chops he was known for in the past last season. However, that did not translate to the MLB. If he can hit in AAA again, he will get another shot.

A few pitchers I am interested in seeing are Luis Perales, Riley Cornelio, Mitchell Parker and Andrew Alvarez. All of them have interesting traits. Parker has been in the Nats rotation the last two years, while Cornelio broke out in a big way last year. Perales is a top prospect the Nats got in a trade with the Red Sox. He is a fireballer, but his size and control questions give him relief risk. Alvarez is a crafty lefty who looked good at the end of last season and in the spring.

If you want to see one of the most interesting teams in Minor League baseball, go up to Rochester. You are going to have to do it quickly because some of these players will be in the big leagues soon. I know I will be checking Rochester Red Wings box scores every day and you should too.

Lakers vs Magic Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Los Angeles Lakers have won eight straight games, but the Orlando Magic will look to snap that streak and get back in the win column tonight at Kia Center.

Austin Reaves’ injury and a tightly compacted schedule give the visiting team a disadvantage, and my Lakers vs. Magic predictions call for an upset victory by the home team.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this cross-conference matchup on Saturday, March 21.

Lakers vs Magic prediction

Lakers vs Magic best bet: Magic moneyline (+125)

The Orlando Magic have dropped three straight games after winning seven in a row, and they can earn a much-needed victory tonight.

Over the last 10 games, the Los Angeles Lakers and Magic both rank in the top-11 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and despite LA’s recent surge, the Magic can hang with them.

The Lakers will play their fourth road game in six days, and Austin Reaves could sit this one out. LA sports a +3.4 net rating with Reaves, but that falls to -1.5 without him. Look for a rested and motivated Magic team to get the dub.

Lakers vs Magic same-game parlay

The Lakers sport a 120.9 offensive rating across the last 10 games, and the Magic aren't far behind at 118.5.

Even if Reaves is sidelined, the Lakers have a 116.3 offensive rating without him. The Lakers have hit the Over in five of their last eight, and the Magic have gone Over in six of seven.

Jalen Suggs is averaging 5.2 assists on the season, and he's dished 6+ dimes in 14 of 26 games at home. He's reached at least that many helpers in four of his last five outings.

Lakers vs Magic SGP

  • Magic moneyline
  • Over 233
  • Jalen Suggs Over 5.5 assists

Our "from downtown" SGP: Magic Tricks

Paolo Banchero has aveeraged 25.1 points across his last 10 games, going for 23+ six times in that span. He scored 36 in his first tilt with LA this season.

Desmond Bane has also hit the Over on his scoring line in six of his last 10, and he's reached that mark in 21 of 35 home games. He scored 22 against the Lakers in his first matchup. 

Jevon Carter has gone for 8+ points in nine of 16 games since joining Orlando, including each of his last three.

Lakers vs Magic SGP

  • Jalen Suggs Over 5.5 assists
  • Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 points
  • Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points
  • Jevon Carter Over 7.5 points

Lakers vs Magic odds

  • Spread: Los Angeles +3 (-110) | Orlando -3 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Los Angeles -150 | Orlando +125
  • Over/Under: Over 233 (-110) | Under 233 (-110)

Lakers vs Magic betting trend to know

The Orlando Magic have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Magic.

How to watch Lakers vs Magic

LocationKia Center, Orlando, FL
DateSaturday, March 21, 2026
Tip-off7:00 p.m. ET
TVSPECSN, FDSN-FL

Lakers vs Magic latest injuries

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Kentucky's NCAA Tournament win leaves Jamal Mashburn unimpressed; Where's Cinderella?

Follow all of Saturday's NCAA Tournament second round games with USA TODAY Sports' live updates.

Otega Oweh single-handedly kept his coach from facing a scorching hot seat.

And, still, Jamal Mashburn wasn’t impressed.

If you listened to Mashburn’s postgame studio monologue, you would have thought Kentucky lost to Santa Clara. It didn’t. Thanks to Oweh’s 35 points, including a buzzer-beating bucket to send the game to overtime, the Wildcats prevailed against the 10th-seeded Broncos. But, Mashburn spoke for Big Blue Nation when he said Kentucky is supposed to beat Santa Clara, especially with its pricey roster. Merely advancing to the second round won’t be enough to meet Kentucky’s standard.

“It's not an expectation to get to the tournament,” Mashburn said in the TNT studio. “It's about Final Fours and championships.”

The ‘Cats survived a first-round upset in a tournament filled with chalk, but now they’ll have their hands full with No. 2 Iowa State.

If the officials had granted Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek the timeout he wanted, this game might have ended differently. Up three points with a couple of seconds remaining, Sendek probably would have instructed his team to foul Kentucky to prevent a 3-point shot.

But, the officials didn’t see Sendek signaling timeout, Santa Clara didn’t foul, and Oweh banked in a bomb to stave off an upset.

Meanwhile, Pope’s predecessor John Calipari cruised into the second round with a red-hot Arkansas team. Pope’s not going to get that Final Four Mashburn talked about, but better go as far as Cal’s Hogs go, or face the heat.

Pope became a portrait of relief.

Sendek, who used to be an assistant coach at Kentucky, knows the expectations Pope must be facing.

“Coach (Rick) Pitino often refers to Kentucky as Camelot, and there’s a lot of truth to that,” Sendek said. “It is not like that everywhere else, you know. … I assure you, Big Blue Nation is one of a kind.”

By one of a kind, he means they’re more demanding than any other fan base in college basketball.

No wonder Calipari looks like he’s got the weight of the world off his shoulders.

Cinderella snoozes in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Blame NIL and the transfer portal if you must, or perhaps the Cinderellas are just enjoying a brief hibernation, but for the second straight year, the underdog napped in the first round of the tournament.

Tradition dictates we get a 12 vs. 5 upset, and so High Point delivered. Siena put a scare into Duke, but the Blue Devils rallied to fend off embarrassment. Otherwise, the biggest upsets were a pair of 11-seeds knocking out a couple of 6-seeds. That doesn’t count for madness, especially when you consider No. 6 North Carolina was playing without its best player, Caleb Wilson, and No. 6 Brigham Young was without one of its top scorers, Richie Saunders.

The good news about so much chalk prevailing? It heightens the chance for some epic Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four matchups.

Final Four still intact

Before the tournament, I uncorked a Final Four of Michigan State, Houston, Arizona and Michigan. No reason to modify those picks. All four cruised in Round 1, while No. 1 overall seed Duke threatened to join Virginia and Purdue in the Hall of Shame.

Head to the Missouri Valley

If you’re in need of a new coach, you might try the Missouri Valley Conference. A couple of ex-Valley coaches are wearing their promotion well.

Josh Schertz has Saint Louis in the second round after the Billikens trounced Georgia. Two years ago, Schertz took Indiana State to the NIT finals. At Iowa, Ben McCollum passed the test in Year 1 after getting a call-up from Drake. McCollum’s Hawkeyes beat Clemson in the first round.

NCAA Tournament expansion? Please, no

The first round won’t kill off tournament expansion dialogue, but it should. Did anyone watch those first-round games and think, “You know what we need? We need the 69th-best team in the bracket!”

The bubble was as weak as ever, and the favorites served a barrage of blowouts in Round 1. Please, leave the field at 68. Nothing about this first round made a worthy argument for tournament expansion.

March Madness second-round upsets

Who’s on upset alert in the second round? Here are three to watch:

∎ Few gave Tennessee much chance to reach the Sweet 16 before the tournament began, but the Vols looked better in the first round than No. 3 Virginia did against Wright State. Tennessee plays the type of nasty defense that Rick Barnes loves, and a Vols team that beat Houston and Louisville is good enough to topple Virginia, which would be a fourth straight Sweet 16 for Tennessee.

∎ Miami aced its hire of 37-year-old Jai Lucas. The Hurricanes torched Missouri in St. Louis, and they’re good enough to threaten No. 2 Purdue in the second round. Three of the four 7-seeds won in the first round. If you judge Miami by the way it played against Missouri, it should have been a 6- or even a 5-seed.

∎ Now, for my boldest second-round upset: Kentucky can beat Iowa State if the Cyclones are without Joshua Jefferson, who injured his ankle in the first round. Never mind Mashburn's groaning, a second straight Sweet 16 for Pope would alleviate some heat. Just get the ball into Oweh’s hands, and let him cook.

Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kentucky March Madness win leaves Jamal Mashburn unimpressed

Championship roundup: Millwall save point at Ipswich as Coventry go nine clear

  • Coventry win 3-0 at Swansea, Boro held by Blackburn

  • QPR put six past Portsmouth, Wrexham see off Blades

Kieran McKenna was left rueing missed chances after Ipswich’s promotion-rivals Millwall took a point home from a 1-1 draw at Portman Road.

Their opener came in the first half from Jack Clarke, with Millwall responding early in the second period through Josh Coburn. The result means Ipswich remain third, level on 69 points with their opponents in fourth, but Town have a game in hand.

Continue reading...

This MLB stadium has surprisingly allowed most home runs since 2020

Dodger Stadium used to suffocate offense, now it invites it. 

For decades, Dodger Stadium lived on the reputation of a pitcher’s park. A place where fly balls went to die under the Southern California night, where the marine layer rolled in like a silent accomplice.

Not anymore.

According to a RotoWire MLB study built on Statcast data from 2020 through 2025, Dodger Stadium has quietly — and now unmistakably — become Major League Baseball’s most prolific home run haven. Not Coors Field. Not Cincinnati’s bandbox. Not the Bronx. Los Angeles. With 1,241 home runs launched into its bleachers and beyond, it sits atop the sport, narrowly ahead of Great American Ball Park (1,221) and Yankee Stadium (1,216).

Dodger Stadium stands alone as baseball’s most prolific home run haven. Getty Images

Part of the shift in Dodger Stadium going from a pitcher’s park to the most home run-friendly park in baseball is hitting philosophy. The Dodgers hired Robert Van Scoyoc as their hitting coach ahead of the 2019 season, reinforcing a commitment to modern, launch-angle-oriented hitting philosophies. 

Another part is roster construction. You’ve heard of the Bronx Bombers, right? Well, what about the Dodger Destroyers. Los Angeles has been in the top five in total home runs every season going back to 2020, and they hammered 244 home runs alone in 2025, 142 of them at home. When you consistently trot a lineup full of former MVPs who love the long ball, your home run totals are going to rise. 

At the center of this power surge stands Shohei Ohtani, the game’s gravitational force, who has already launched 57 of his 109 Dodgers home runs within these same once-pitcher-friendly walls. 

“I think that our team is a big part of hitting them,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts when told that the most home runs launched in baseball since 2020 have been at Dodger Stadium. “We play 81 games at home. So offensively, we’ve done a good job of hitting homers in our ballpark. And when you get Shohei (Ohtani) it skews that number a little bit, too.”

Coors Field, home of the Rockies, tied for sixth. Getty Images
Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati came in second, 20 long balls behind Blue Heaven on Earth. Getty Images

But Roberts also pointed to something that isn’t talked about enough. The weather. 

The marine layer still lingers, and the physics of flight for a baseball have remained the same.

But over the last decade, due in large part to climate change and global warming, the average temperature in Los Angeles from April to September has risen by 3 degrees Fahrenheit, with five of the warmest years in California history having occurred since 2020.

“I think there’s something to the air in the summertime,” Roberts said. “The air gets light, and the ball flies. But it is a surprising stat of all the ballparks in the big leagues Dodger Stadium leads the league in home runs.” 

Yankee Stadium is third on the list. Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

It is surprising that Chavez Ravine was once known as a park that punished imperfection and now it rewards precision — and modern hitters are nothing if not precise.

Even Angel Stadium, another venue long held hostage by dense coastal air, ranks fourth with 1,150 home runs. The narrative that weather alone dictates offense is cracking, just like bats meeting 98 at the top of the zone.

Another surprising twist? Coors Field — baseball’s mile-high launching pad — didn’t even crack the top five, tying for sixth. Oracle Park, once feared for its cavernous dimensions, sits near the bottom. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium — baseball’s old soul — has become its loudest amplifier.

The Dodgers have won three World Series since 2020, but Dodger Stadium didn’t change its identity overnight.

It got rewritten by the recent history of success.


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Mets 2026 Season Preview: Jorge Polanco is a huge question mark at first base

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 10: Jorge Polanco #11 of the New York Mets runs onto the field prior to the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

When the Mets signed Jorge Polanco to a two-year, $40 million contract to be their first baseman just days after Pete Alonso got five years from the Baltimore Orioles, it was, to put it lightly, a surprise. Polanco has been a good offensive player for a number of years, with a standout 2025 for the Seattle Mariners. However, he had never played more than an inning of first base professionally and, entering his age 33 season, isn’t exactly at the stage of his career where a positional change this extreme is likely. 

Now, let’s get both extremes out of the way. Polanco was a not-great middle infielder for most of his career, but based on all available data, playing second base or shortstop is much higher on the defensive difficulty spectrum than playing first is. He is downshifting positional difficulty, which is the better approach for someone learning the position during spring training. So this isn’t like asking Juan Soto to learn shortstop.

But playing first isn’t, as Brad Pitt as Billy Beane once said, “not that hard.” First base is a very different position than any of the other infield positions because of the footwork, the stretching, and the picking, all of which don’t really resemble play at the other positions. While, yes, the worst defenders on the field usually play first, they usually know how to play first base. So this isn’t as simple as just giving Polanco a new glove and suddenly getting Lou Gherig out there. Plus, he’s going to be catching throws from a brand new third baseman in Bo Bichette, which adds to the difficulty.

The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle of that spectrum, and while Polanco has played a few games at first this spring, it isn’t as if his performance has sparked gobsmacked reactions on either extreme. This is likely going to be an open question until Polanco shows one way or the other what his first base defense looks like. 

That is only half of Polanco’s game and, frankly, the half that could change at the drop of a hat. If the first twenty games are an unmitigated disaster, Polanco could wind up the (close to) full-time designated hitter and put this question of first base behind us. So let’s look at who Polanco the hitter is. 

Actually, that is harder to do than you may think.

Polanco battled a lot of leg injuries, has an 80-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs on his record, and has had a lot of ups and downs in his MLB career. Using Baseball Reference’s 162 game average, Polanco has been a .263/.330/.442 hitter with 23 home runs, good for a 112 OPS+. While those aren’t exactly Pete Alonso numbers, given the mix of players the Mets brought in this season, that’s probably a passable performance. 

But those career numbers are not really who 2026 Polanco is. After a disastrous 2024 season, Polanco remade his swing and came out a very different hitter. Our Lukas Vlahos discussed this while grading his signing:

Under the hood, there are clear changes supporting the offensive jump. Polanco increased his bat speed by more than a full mile per hour and nearly doubled his fast swing rate without lengthening his swing at all. He also flattened his attack angle, a change that did result in more ground balls but which also improved the quality of his pulled air contact. All of this drove significant improvements to Polanco’s Z-contact and exit velocity metrics without harming his approach significantly or batted ball distribution in a meaningful way…Polanco had a 92nd percentile ISO and a 13th percentile strikeout rate…Among players with 100 PA last year, Ketel Marte is the only batter better than Polanco in both of these metrics. Jose Ramirez is the only other player somewhat close. That’s impressive company no matter how you slice it.

If the Mets believe that the changes he made are real and sustainable, then let’s use his 2025 as a more accurate comparison for this season: .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs. That’s a 134 OPS+, which is much more palatable for a first baseman. For context, Alonso’s OPS+ was 144 in 2025. 

I use Alonso purposely, as that is who Polanco is going to be compared to for his entire Mets tenure. I don’t think anyone, from David Stearns to Polanco, expects Polanco to put up Alonso’s power numbers in 2026. Alonso is, at this moment, one of the elite power hitters in the game, and over the course of Polanco’s two-year deal, he will likely always be the inferior power hitter to Alonso.

But signing to Polanco for two years is very different than signing Alonso for five. Polanco at first is a roll of the dice, but Alonso at first is a known quantity. And what’s known more than many of us want to believe is that Alonso is declining defensively, and doing so at a fairly steep rate. It is understandable to want Alonso, who you know what to expect from, versus Polanco, a total unknown at first base. But even if Polanco is a disaster at first base and at the plate, he’s a more affordable and short term disaster than Alonso may wind up being. 

But if Polanco can be a passable first baseman – a big if – and he can keep his changes from 2025 going – another big if – the overall performance between the two may be closer than we think. 

Of course, that doesn’t erase the many fantastic memories we have of Alonso as a Met, nor does it lessen the sting of his departure for those that wanted to root for him in blue and orange for the rest of his career. But what it may do is help the team win baseball games. And that is why we are all here, isn’t it?

Yankees fans think Will Warren could have a strong 2026

LAKELAND, FLORIDA - MARCH 12, 2026: Will Warren #98 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch during the sixth inning of a game against the Detroit Tigers at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 12, 2026 in Lakeland, Florida. The Yankees beat the Tigers, 4-3. (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Going into 2026, the Yankees have quite a number of interesting rotation options at their disposal. Some of those — the likes of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt — will miss some time to start the season, but are expected back at some point. In the meantime, the team will be relying on Max Fried at the top of the rotation, and hoping that Cam Schlittler is as good as his tantalizing rookie season made him look.

There are also another couple young players who, at least to start the year, will be tasked with rounding out the rotation. Two of them we’ve seen plenty of in recent years: Will Warren and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. Another is Ryan Weathers, who the Yankees picked up in a trade with the Marlins this offseason. With those three hoping to impress and get a longer run in the rotation, even when the Yankees start to get some guys back from injury, we wanted to know which of them you think will have the best 2026.

As you can see, Warren was the runaway winner in the voting. That’s understandable, as we have seen several flashes of being a good pitcher in his time in the majors. With a career 5.16 ERA and a 4.44 one last year — 92 ERA+, for reference — he hasn’t been able to find consistency at the big league level. However even when he has struggled, signs like his strikeout numbers point to there being something there.

Of the three, Gil has probably shown the most at the big league level, having won the AL ROTY, as mentioned. While he dealt with injuries of his own last season, keeping him out a while, he didn’t totally replicate that in 2025. His ERA was actually better than 2024, but some of his peripherals were worse, as he continued to struggle with control and walking batters. He’s also a bit older than a ROTY win might suggest, as he’ll be 28 in June.

Weathers is quite low on this post, probably because he has really struggled in spring training. Of course, you can’t always just copy and paste spring numbers into the regular season, as players use this time of year to work on stuff, trying things they might not in a regular season game. However, there’s only so much you can write off from a 8.68 ERA in 9.1 innings. His spring debut was very impressive, and he’s struck out a ton of batters, but it’s easy to understand why people are skeptical at this stage, when we’ve mostly only seen him struggle in a Yankees’ uniform.

Whether you voted in the poll or not, who of those three do you think will have the best 2026 and why?


These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.

Mets name five-man rotation to begin season with Sean Manaea in piggyback role

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza cleared up any confusion Saturday morning, announcing the team will go with a five-man starting rotation to begin the regular season.

Freddy Peralta was already announced as the Opening Day starter against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 26, but it was unclear the order of pitchers who will follow him. 

David Peterson will start the second game of the season on March 28 with Nolan McLean going on March 29 to round out the opening series. Clay Holmes will then take the mound on March 30 against the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by Kodai Senga in fifth game of the season on March 31. The manager also said that if Senga needs to pitch on regular rest this year, he will.

Mendoza then clarified that Sean Manaea will be used out of the bullpen and piggyback one of the starters, but did not say which game. 

"We are going to use him in a piggyback tandem, but we're not necessarily going to announce which game he's going to be pitching," Mendoza said.

Mendoza gave some more insight into what went into the decision to go with a five-man rotation over a six-man rotation, noting that plan will likely be used for two turns through the rotation.

"Six guys throwing the ball really well," Mendoza said. "And we were pretty honest with all of them at the beginning of camp. If everyone was healthy, we were going to have to make some tough decisions and one of them were going to be pitching in that type of role. 

"The way we see it is, he's taking that turn right now, probably two times through the rotation because of the schedule and the off days, we don't feel like we need that sixth starter yet. He's going to make starts for us. Couple times through, making sure guys go through their routine. We'll revisit when we have to and maybe there's somebody else's turn at the time. But for now, that's the decision there."

Mendoza added that Manaea was "not happy" about the choice, but was "very respectful" and "understood" the move. The manager also said Manaea's velocity dip in spring training did not impact the decision.

"He's a professional and he'll be ready to go," Mendoza said.

Manaea later spoke with reporters after the announcement, saying he is ready to step up in the different role. The left-hander also said he's built up to 60 pitches and is hoping to reach 65-70 pitches next game (Monday in an intrasquad scrimmage).

"For me, I just want to go out and pitch and help this team win. Whatever capacity that is, I know I'm going to be the best at that," Manaea said.

He added: "I consider myself a starter. To not be that is frustrating. At the end of the day, I'm just going to let my pitching do the work, whatever capacity that is, and we'll go from there."

Spring GameThread: Jays @ Pirates, Jays Prospects @ Phillies Prospects

Sep 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first round draft pick JoJo Parker takes batting practice before a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

I have a busy Saturday, in front of leaving for Japan on Sunday, so getting this together Friday night.

The Jays are in Bradenton, Florida, which is a very pretty town. But the game isn’t going to be on TV.

Also the Jays Prospect are playing the Phillies prospects in Clearwater. And this game is on Sportsnet. MLB is running these games to let us see some of the top prospect on our favorite teams. I like the idea. Apparently, the teams are using their MLB Pipeline top 30, plus others picked by their teams.

The Jays team will be players from this list:

Pitchers

Austin Cates, RHP
Javen Coleman, LHP
Daniel Guerra, RHP
Adam Macko, LHP
Landen Maroudis, RHP
Carson Messina, RHP
Nolan Perry, RHP
Grant Rogers, RHP
Gage Stanifer, RHP


Catchers

Edward Duran, C
Aaron Parker, C
Brandon Valenzuela, C

Infielders

Cutter Coffey, 3B
Josh Kasevich, SS
Sean Keys, 3B/1B
Charles McAdoo, 3B/1B
Arjun Nimmala, SS
JoJo Parker, SS
Tim Piasentin, 3B
Josh Rivera, SS
Juan Sanchez, 3B

We have seen many of these guys in spring games this year, but I’d love to see JoJo Parker play.

Golden Knights Desperate to Rebound as Predators Loom in Critical Road Test

The Vegas Golden Knights enter Saturday’s matchup against the Nashville Predators with a pressing need to reverse recent setbacks. A disappointing performance against the Utah Mammoth highlighted multiple areas of concern, leaving the team’s coaching staff and players with little margin for error as the regular season approaches its critical final stretch.

Vegas has now experienced consecutive shutouts, and the past seven periods have yielded no goals. The lack of offensive execution has drawn pointed attention from head coach Bruce Cassidy, who has emphasized the importance of structural adjustments, crisp passing, and sustained pressure in the offensive zone. With time limited to implement significant changes, the Golden Knights must address both systemic and individual performance issues to regain competitiveness.

Goaltending, Momentum, and the Road Ahead

The recent struggles in net have compounded the team’s challenges. Adin Hill, who showed promise in earlier appearances, saw his performance undermined in Utah, recording no saves in a brief span that erased prior goodwill. Akira Schmid, meanwhile, maintained momentum with strong work in relief. Both goalies now face critical opportunities to reestablish confidence in the back-to-back games against Nashville and the Dallas Stars, with each performance likely to influence goaltending decisions moving forward.

Despite these difficulties, the Golden Knights retain a path to the postseason. The Pacific Division remains highly competitive yet underperforming, with the Anaheim Ducks leading with a point total that would place them outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

For Vegas, strategic victories and timely offensive execution could shift the team from a position of preservation to a meaningful playoff contender. A focused road effort against Nashville represents a pivotal opportunity to stabilize performance and set a foundation for the final weeks of the season.

How To Watch

Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Date: Saturday, March 21

Time: 11:00 am PST

How To Watch: SCRIPPS, ESPN+

Best NBA Player Props Today for March 21: Doncic Puts Magic Under His Spell

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We have 10 games scheduled across the Association this evening. My NBA player props for all the action will include Luka Doncic, Evan Mobley, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Saturday, March 21.

Best NBA player props today

PlayerPickbet365
Thunder Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOver 28.5 points-120
Cavs Evan MobleyOver 19.5 points-125
Lakers Luka DoncicOver 33.5 points-105

Prop #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points 

-120 at bet365

The reigning MVP is doing his thing again this season for the defending NBA champions, averaging 31.5 PPG. That ranks second in the Association behind only Doncic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has cashed the Over in points in three of his last five. 

SGA dropped 40 on Tuesday against Orlando, and he’s up against the lowly Wizards tonight, one of the worst teams around. He’s hit the Over in two of his last three road contests, and Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.6 PPG on the road. 

After scoring only 20 points on Wednesday, expect the well-rested SGA to come in and show out here. 

  • Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FDSN OK, MNMT

Prop #2: Evan Mobley Over 19.5 points

-125 at bet365

Evan Mobley is having a nice campaign for the title-chasing Cleveland Cavaliers, averaging 18.3 points per night. The big man is killing the competition lately, hitting the Over in three of his last four. Mobley just scored 26 against the Bulls, and 27 against the Bucks. 

Both of those games were on the road, and the Cavs are in the Big Easy tonight to take on the Pelicans. The Pels are one of the worst teams in the league, and they’re allowing 22.6 PPG to centers. 

Mobley will keep it rolling at Smoothie King Center. 

  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FDSN OH, GCSEN

Prop #3: Luka Doncic Over 33.5 points

-105 at bet365

Luka Doncic has been the talk of the NBA this season, and he looks set to potentially win MVP. The Lakers superstar leads the league in scoring with 33.4 PPG, and he’s been on a different level lately. 

The Slovenian just scored 100 points across his last two games. Dropping 40 against the Rockets before pouring in 60 against the Heat. He also scored 36 against Houston last weekend. 

Doncic is averaging 37.2 points per contest in March, and he’s cashed the Over in three straight road outings. The Lakers visit the Magic tonight. 

  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBATV

These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.

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It’s Not My Moneyball 2026: Pandora’s Box

ORLANDO, FL - DECEMBER 08: Major League Baseball Commissioner Robert D. Manfred Jr. looks on during the MLB and the Dominican Baseball Federation announcement at the 2025 Winter Meetings at The Signia by Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek on Monday, December 8, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mary Holt/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

In 2022, the “It’s not my Moneyball” series was created in response to the lockout imposed by the owners that disrupted Spring Training and arguably cost Clayton Kershaw a perfect game in Minneapolis (I had fun). As the season starts, the World Baseball Classic concludes, we must revive this series as trouble looms in the distance, hanging in the air, exactly in the way a brick does not.

The current consensus among MLB pundits is that the sport will slam to a grinding halt in December 2026; to which I respond: Where were you lot literally three years ago, when I pointed out the clear writing on the wall?

At the risk of asking the owners how many times they need to learn this lesson, I am not generally in the business of making predictions, but I will venture out on a limb and make a prediction today:

The owners are going to lock out the players (again) in December 2026 when the current collective bargaining agreement expires.

[emphasis as in original.]

The following point needs to be repeated loudly because most owners are counting on everyone in the media and the fans to ignore the following immutable truth: there is absolutely no reason for a lockout to occur; if the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) were to expire, the players and owners could proceed under the current system until a deal for a new CBA is struck. The only reason owners impose a lockout is to pressure the Players’ Union into accepting a salary cap, which the Union is hellbent on rejecting.

Admittedly, I was wrong about who the “culprits” of the impending lockout would be, but my reasoning was generally sound, even if the owners were trying to act as if they were doing something while doing nothing. The owners have stopped playing around with optics and faux committees.

Back in 2023, the baseball world quivered in fear of Steve Cohen bullying the league with his seemingly limitless financial resources for the Mets, and looked at the efforts of Peter Seidler doing his best Mike Ilitch (Mr. I) of the Detroit Tigers impersonation as Exhibit B of why the sport would grind to a screeching halt in December 2026.

The fears were misguided as the Mets continued to find entertaining ways to set money on fire, and like Mr. I, Peter Seidler passed away all too soon, leaving a wake of family trauma, which rippled outwards to the organization and is only now reaching a conclusion.

A juggernaut did arise on the horizon, but it was not the (LOL)Mets, but our very own Los Angeles Dodgers.

If anything, if you want a starting point to the villain arc (apart from the league’s failure to punish the 2017 Houston Astros for cheating — just a piece of metal, huh? — and the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks whipping the mostly-busted 2023 Dodgers out of the playoffs), one need only look at the Dodgers after one particular signing: Shohei Ohtani in the 2023 offseason.

Lest anyone forget, Ohtani devised the structure of his massively deferred deal and presented it to the Dodgers (who clearly accepted), the San Francisco Giants (who probably should have offered more money), the Toronto Blue Jays (it is a sore subject still), and the Anaheim Angels (who declined).

Far too many people forget that Ohtani proposed the structure, likely in part because on a team with eventual-first ballot Hall of Famer Mike Trout, the closest the Angels could get to the playoffs was buying a ticket to see it with the rest of the hoi polloi.

The Dodgers largely operated with a standard deviation in spending during the first part of the current CBA until Ohtani. However, when presented with the opportunity to win with a unicorn like Ohtani, one would be an absolute fool not to try to leverage both the maximum results on the balance sheet and in the trophy room.

Unlike the Angels, the Dodgers read the room, read their hand, and shoved their chips into the middle.

  • 2022 – $293,330,382, including $32.4 million luxury tax bill
  • 2023 – $268,198,867, including $19.4 million luxury tax bill
  • 2024 – $353,015,360, including $103 million luxury tax bill
  • 2025 – $417,341,608, including $169.4 million luxury tax bill
  • 2026 – $538.7 million, including ~$142.6 million luxury tax bill (projected)

Half a billion dollars on a team’s payroll is the fever dream of those playing MLB: The Show. In essence, the argument about the Dodgers is really three parts of the same conversation, which will be separated below:

The Dodgers have more revenue than anyone in baseball; therefore, the season is over before the first pitch is thrown! And thus baseball needs to have a lockout in 2027 to stop the madness!

Half of the above statement is true and an ironclad fact, which we shall break down and examine over the next two essays.

Living that Scrooge McDuck Life — for better and worse

Detractors are correct: the Dodgers are lapping everyone in revenue, based on what we publicly know.

Having the biggest revenue deal in baseball (in part due to the incompetence of MLB’s other owners), leading baseball in home and road attendance every year since the pandemic, and having a generational international superstar who is a cross between Michael Jordan and Babe Ruth, worthy of a documentary that basically ignores him, will do that.

No one can credibly argue that the Dodgers do not lead baseball in raking in the money. One need only look at “probable Law and Order”-extra Kyle Tucker and the literal king’s ransom he will be paid over at least the next two seasons. So goes the cry before the impending lockout: the Dodgers broke baseball through wanton spending, and no other team has a chance to compete. In fact, reporters like Jeff Passan are starting to carry water for this position.

Along these lines, the Dodgers’ recent financial success is why players like Max Muncy, Enrique Hernandez, and Evan Phillips get to enjoy reunions, and where players like Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger (with justification!) were shown the door. When you have built a sponsorship engine that literally is equal to half of the league, when you have built a franchise that likely brought in a billion dollars in annual revenue, a team can flex its financial muscle and avoid saying farewell to veterans who might have been allowed to leave before the Ohtani Age.

Not setting $102 million on fire for a signing that never made an iota of sense, even with the benefit of hindsight, causes positive dividends in the future? Who knew! The team is thought to be the first MLB team to bring in a billion dollars in annual revenue, even going so far as to sell naming rights to the field that no one other than Joe Davis, Stephen Nelson, et al. will ever use.

Yes, the Dodgers have arguably perfected an imperfect system, much to the annoyance of the 29 other fanbases. Yes, the Dodgers are the first repeat champions in 25 years. But it’s not as if the team has slapped the league with impunity over the past 24 months.

If any one of these bullet points zigs instead of zags, the Dodgers are not the kings of the league. Dave Roberts would not be a surefire lock for induction in Cooperstown, etc., etc. Lex Pryor of The Ringerpublished an essay that largely covers these financial points from the position of a scold, rather than my position as a Dodgers fan and writer.

The Dodgers are not interested in winning 120 games in the regular season, only to lay an egg in the Division Series. They took that terrible route in 2022, which was arguably the last time that the Padres were relevant. Even in situations where things are relatively equal (say, the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes), the Dodgers still prevailed over the league. The Dodgers won 93 games in 2025, good enough for the three-seed, and, as a bonus, just about everyone was in peak form.

Did those facts stop the offense from being largely absent after the Wild Card round? Not really, but from the way people carry on, one would have thought the Dodgers went 13-0 rather than being pushed to the brink against the Blue Jays. If the Dodgers romp to 120 victories (they won’t) and sweep the postseason (inshallah), I will revisit whether the payroll disparity is truly bad for baseball.

What baseball does have in spades right now is a perception problem, one that threatens to engulf the sport in quick order.

The Party is likely over this December

Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer aptly summarized the state of things in MLB:

Are the Dodgers bad for baseball? Maybe. More accurately, though, they’re becoming a bad look for baseball. And they don’t seem to care what they look like, as long as they win.

The sport is having a renaissance with steady upticks in attendance and ratings. Game 7 of the 2025 World Series was the most-watched baseball game in over 30 years, drawing in about 24.3 million viewers in the United States and Canada. When Japan is included, that figure rises to 51 million viewers.

In contrast, the 2026 World Baseball Classic Final drew 10.784 million viewers, a record for the tournament but still barely a fifth of what Game 7 pulled in. Baseball should be basking in this era of success, but, like an illness that has been ignored for too long, things are less than 260 days away from slamming to a dead halt.

Like a dog that catches a chased car, nothing good will come from the perception that the Dodgers somehow broke baseball. It takes eight owners to scuttle a deal, and I see at least a dozen owners would rather burn the sport to the ground in the name of short-term thinking rather than refine the system that currently exists.

Accordingly, ownership is on the precipice of unleashing a Pandora’s Box of self-inflicted harm and stupidity by catering to the perception of inequality rather than the roots of inequality. I would encourage everyone to savor every last drop of the 2026 season, because while colleagues like Eric Stephen believe that no games will be lost in 2027, I do not share their optimism.

The stupidity and greed run thick, and I would genuinely be shocked if we get even half of a season next year. I have not lost a single case or a single night’s sleep by underestimating people’s greed and stupidity. Next essay, we introduce the twelve franchises that will likely run the sport aground in nine months’ time. I would dearly love to be wrong, but after all, it’s not my money(ball).

Snake Bytes 3/21

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 12: Kristian Robinson #62 of the Arizona Diamondbacks runs to first base during a Spring Training game against the Colorado Rockies at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 12, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Diamondbacks News

Soroka Sharp Against Sox
Michael Soroka looked to be in mid-season form in his final spring outing. The bounce back candidate had a strong outing against the lowly White Sox as he made his case for a place in the rotation.

Diamondbacks Game Pushed Back
At this point, it is mostly a reminder that all mid-day Cactus League games have been rescheduled due to the continuing heat wave hammering the Valley.

Gallen Discusses Final Start of Spring
Zac Gallen’s Friday start was the last outing he will have before the games start to count. The next time he takes the bump will be against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers in the season opener.

As Opening Day Looms Bullpen, Closer Questions Remain
It is hard not to believe that this winter’s drastic jump in the cost of pitching did not play a major factor in the roster that Mike Hazen wound up with. Paul Sewald continues to make fans nervous.

Eduardo Rodriguez Returns
Eduardo Rodriguez has returned from the Diamondbacks after leading his home nation of Venezuela to the WBC crown.

Other Baseball News

Padres Select Walker Buehler
The former Dodgers ace has managed to earn himself another chance to see if there is anything left in the tank after multiple Tommy John surgeries.

Marcelo Mayer Named Red Sox Starting Second Baseman
In what has been pretty much a foregone conclusion for a few weeks now, Marcelo Mayer has been named by the Red Sox as their Opening Day starter at second base.

Buster Olney’s Takeaways from Spring Training
No big surprises here, though some interesting predictions.

Andrew Painter Makes Phillies’ Rotation
The 6’7” right-handed Painter will break camp as a member of the Philadelphia rotation. The young man turns 24 on 10 April.