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I had it in my mind to write this article a day or so ago after hearing the rankings of MLB teams on successful ABS challenges.

So you’ll forgive me for writing it the day after the Cubs failed on two of three challenges in their loss to the Padres, including one by Matthew Boyd in the first inning, that he later said he shouldn’t have made.

Here is that challenge [VIDEO].

Yeah, that’s a bad one. Not only because it was pretty clearly a ball, but that’s only the fourth pitch of the game! Perhaps a bit rattled, Boyd wound up walking Ramon Laureano, helping trigger a three-run Padres inning.

But in general, the Cubs have done well in ABS challenges. A new site called Tap to Challenge has taken data that’s been made available by Baseball Savant and sliced and diced it in a number of ways.

This chart shows the Cubs as the sixth-best team overall in challenges at a 60.3 percent success rate (through Monday’s games), just behind the Tigers at 60.4 percent and Mariners at 60.6 percent. The Royals top the leaderboard at 62.3 percent.

Breaking this down further, Cubs batters rank 17th at 46.2 percent (the D-backs lead at 52.6 percent) and Cubs catchers rank second with a 73.3 percent success rate (the Tigers lead at 85 percent).

Just 41 challenges have been made by pitchers, with 17 being successful (41.4 percent). Boyd’s challenge was the second made by a Cubs pitcher so far this year. The other, which was successful, was by Edward Cabrera on April 11 against the Pirates [VIDEO].

The most challenges by a team’s pitchers is five, by the Yankees. Yankees pitchers have been correct three times. Eight teams (Twins, Royals, Padres, Reds, Blue Jays, Rays, Diamondbacks and Brewers) have not had any challenges by pitchers, and in general, teams are telling pitchers not to challenge. The 41 pitcher challenges are just 2.3 percent of the total of 1,767 challenges made in total by all players.

There’s been some discussion here about whether MLB should eventually go to a full ABS system. Personally, I like the challenge system. It creates some strategy — obviously, losing a challenge in the first inning and both challenges by the third hurt the Cubs Monday night. It gets fans involved, you’ve certainly heard the cheering by home fans when their player is correct.

Last week at The Athletic, Jayson Stark wrote an article that detailed more of the things I’ve mentioned here, headlined “When will MLB go ‘full ABS,’ let robot umps take over? Maybe never.” I know that’s going to make some of you unhappy, but here’s some of the reasoning:

Do we really want ABS to tell us whether 700,000 pitches a year are balls and strikes? That’s a momentous question because it would be such a momentous change.

“You should only make changes if it makes the game better,” former Cubs/Red Sox/MLB rules visionary Theo Epstein said, as far back as 2023, in an appearance on the Starkville podcast with me and my co-host, Doug Glanville. “You have to figure out exactly what you’re solving for. With ABS, you don’t want to force a solution without a problem.”

Theo is correct, in my view. What if MLB went to a system like this, with umpires no longer used to calling balls and strikes, and the technology went down? Then you’re asking for trouble, in asking people who wouldn’t be doing this important thing to suddenly have to do it accurately.

The article says that for a time in 2023 and 2024, they experimented with full ABS in Triple-A, then surveyed players and fans on the system. The results might surprise you:

Check out the results from this survey, conducted in August 2024. Players and coaches were asked: Which ABS format do you prefer? You might want to look away because “full ABS” is about to take a hellacious drubbing.

Challenge system — 54 percent
Full ABS — 8 percent
Human umps — 38 percent

(Source: Major League Baseball)

Eight percent? They were being offered a chance to get every call right, and not even one in 10 wanted that? I think they were trying to tell us something.

Fans in Triple A weren’t quite that vociferous. But it was still more than a 2-to-1 runaway win for the challenge system over full ABS.

Challenge system — 47 percent
Full ABS — 23 percent
Human umps 30 percent

(Source: Major League Baseball)

Personally, I think that as the challenge system in MLB gets better because players get better at it, the percentage answering “human umps” in a survey like that would get smaller. And don’t take it only from me, take it from a former player who’s now a Triple-A manager:

Take it from Morgan Ensberg, manager of the Rays’ Triple-A Durham team. He lived through more than 100 games of the full-robot experience. He described those games as having “no color, no spirit.”

“It’s just weird, man,” said Ensberg, a longtime challenge-system fan. “Like, a robotic voice is saying, strike or ball, and you’re going to have problems with that, because you kind of want humans. You know, we all have our brains. And you want to have humans hitting, and humans pitching, and humans calling the games, because we’re going to see things more similarly.”

So that is the “human element” you want. Humans playing and calling the plays, with the technology backing them up. I think that’s a good match. And also, remember this:

Is ABS improving the game?

The answer, from fans who attended games between March 26 and April 19:

Yes — 92 percent
No — 8 percent

(Source: Major League Baseball)

We eagerly await the results of independent polling on this topic. But if you’ve spent even one night in a big-league ballpark during the past few weeks, it couldn’t be more obvious. The buzz that accompanies every challenge cartoon on the scoreboard is telling us that the people paying to sit in those seats are gobbling up this stuff.

“I think that one of the virtues of baseball is, we have things that we can argue about in a bar as we’re watching a game,” the same official said. “So one of the things that makes ABS challenge interesting is, you’re sitting there and it’s a 3-2 count, and a guy gets rung up on a called strike in the third inning with a runner on second. And you say: ‘Why the hell didn’t he challenge?’ I think that’s an interesting aspect of the game.”

Remember: If you let those robot umps call every pitch, you lose all of that.

Because in the end, baseball is entertainment. And in my view, the challenge system definitely provides entertainment.

Stark’s article concludes with some thoughts about where the system might go from here. Maybe you add a third challenge, he cites an unnamed baseball executive, and I could see that happening. The whole article is definitely worth reading, if you haven’t seen it yet.

One last thing and then I’ll let you have at it. Going back to the charts from Tap To Challenge (a fantastic site worth your time), the site also has data on umpires. That’s also worth a look — you’ll find that quite a few umpires have been overturned more than CB Bucknor. Baseball Savant also has quite a bit of ABS data you can peruse.

I’m writing this before the Yankees take on the Rangers Monday night, so it’s subject to change, but at this moment Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the worst player in baseball when it comes to the ABS challenge system. His 14 percent success rate is the lowest in the sport, and this weekend against the Astros we saw two dreadful examples.

The first one annoyed me — it’s an eight-run game in the ninth inning, this is about as close to stat-padding as you get in baseball. The second failed challenge is somewhat offset by the fact that Jazz notched a single a couple of pitches later, but challenges are limited; once you fail you can’t use it again. Chisholm took away a potential review from another player on a call that wasn’t close.

I think Jazz is a pretty good player but it is perhaps time to concede that a guy with a near-20 percent career K-BB rate doesn’t have a great understanding of the zone. Chisholm makes his money by getting his A-swing off and hitting the ball into the gap, not by owning the strike zone the way a Juan Soto-type would. Suffice it to say, Jazz doesn’t get to challenge except in the most obvious of circumstances.

Chisholm isn’t the only guy that’s hurting the team on the review side of things though. The Yankees sit a tick below league average (47 percent) at hitter-induced challenges at 44 percent, and bang on league average on fielder-induced at 59 percent. For a team that has preached strike zone ownership for about as long as I’ve been alive, they’re sure not making any gains in this part of the game.

Four players have been a net positive in the challenge system, with Aaron Judge of course leading the way. The Yankee captain is 3-for-4 with reviews this year, and you could argue that the three-time MVP has been more cautious than he should be. Then again, he has won three MVPs without the challenge system, so while I’m sure he has the greenlight to review any pitch he deems necessary, it might just end up not being a part of his game.

Ryan McMahon and Trent Grisham have gone a combined 5-for-7 so far this year, and if Aaron Judge has a big, emerald-green flag, they have something that’s slightly paler but still very clearly a go. In general, I think challenges should be reserved for times there are men on base, the first pitch of the at-bat, or a potential final pitch. McMahon and Grisham can go outside that band slightly, but not wildly.

Then we have a middle grouping, of guys that have been neutral to slightly bad — the yellow lights. This includes Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, and José Caballero, the latter of which has called for 10 reviews, the most on the team. I tend to think that Cabby does this as a bit of gamesmanship, in the same way that he refuses to engage the pitcher until the eight-second required mark. Still, these three guys have to sit within tight parameters like discussed above, but as long as they stick to ‘em, they can tap their helmets.

Then there’s the dunce caps. Ben Rice, Austin Wells, Cody Bellinger, and Chisholm have actively cost the team runs with their challenge attempts. They’ve combined to go 3-for-13, which would be a pretty cold weekend series at the plate, and is even worse off when it comes to challenging balls and strikes. For now, unless there’s a deeply egregious call or the entire game can change on the result — a Rob Refsnyder-esque situation — these guys should focus on getting the bat on the ball more than anything else.

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Please, Baby Jesus, give me the strength to find some home run props today. The weather is getting cold for the seemingly third time this season, but there are some great matchup spots to target for dingers and MLB player props. 

The Orioles could be batting around, facing a bullpen arm as a starter, and the Pirates have to take advantage of one of the worst starters in BlastContact percentage.

These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, April 28, including a +17688 parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Pete Alonso	+490
Oneil Cruz	+370
Brett Baty	+570
💲Today's HR parlay	+17688

Pete Alonso (+490)

It’s a good day to back the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso, on Dinger Tuesday at a price near +500.

The weather is shifting again, but Camden Yards remains a solid setting for right-handed power with the wind blowing out. Alonso also carries a 33% opposite-field fly-ball rate, and Camden has one of the shallowest right-field fences, per THE BAT.

He’ll face Kai-Wei Teng, who is making his first start after working in a multi-inning relief role. His MLB track record isn't impressive, and his command has been inconsistent.

The Baltimore Orioles could also see plenty of a vulnerable Houston Astros bullpen, which boosts the outlook for power. Houston's relievers own the worst ERA in baseball. Alonso also homered off Teng in the only meeting between the two.  

The fair price here sits around +430.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network

Oneil Cruz (+370)

I’m getting square, but I’ll happily take a potential five-AB leadoff hitter in a strong matchup against Kyle Leahy, who ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball by Blast Contact%.

Only one starter has a worse mark, and Leahy has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters.

If swing speed is your angle, Oneil Cruz fits — he owns the second-fastest swing in baseball and is a prime target in plus matchups. The setting also helps, with temperatures in the 70s and winds blowing out to center.

If Leahy exits early, Cruz will see a St. Louis Cardinals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA and lacks strong left-handed options.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Cardinals.TV

Brett Baty (+570)

If you’re betting home runs today, make sure to include some New York Mets. Zack Littell has allowed 11 homers over 25 innings this year, with nine coming in his last three starts. He’s hanging on by a thread and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Left-handed hitters already have nine long balls off Littell, and while Juan Soto is a solid look at +300, Brett Baty at +570 stands out. 

He’s been the Mets’ best hitter over the last week, and his Blast Contact metrics support the surge. This is a strong spot to stack HR/RBI exposure.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Nationals.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Pete Alonso	Bet Now +17688
Oneil Cruz
Brett Baty

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

It is quite likely that the last two days will the slowest of the entire season for the Cincinnati Reds.

Despite winning the overall series (and being on a roll overall), the Reds spent Sunday afternoon dropping the series finale in Great American Ball Park to the Detroit Tigers. Compounding things was the manner in which they dropped it – they surged back in the same way they have in so many wins so far this year only for their always-reliable bullpen to implode.

Then, they had one of those rare days off during the middle of a homestand, so they got to mill around town thinking about Sunday for two days with no travel in there to break it up. Hopefully, that won’t leave them ripe for a letdown against the Colorado Rockies, who are in town Tuesday to open a three-game series in GABP.

These two clubs met one another at precisely the same time in 2025, with the Reds heading west to Denver to sweep the Rockies between April 25th and 27th. While these are your father’s Rockies – they’re in last place in the National League West once again – rest assured that the 2026 Rockies are, so far, not the 2025 Rockies, as that club was a miserable 4-23 upon being swept aside in Coors Field.

The 2026 Rockies are in last place so far, but they’re 13-16 and boast just a -11 run differential. They’ve scored 118 runs – same as the Reds – and they are fresh off winning all three games they played against the New York Mets in the Big Apple (sandwiched around one game that was postponed). They also boast burgeoning ace Chase Dollander, who (as of today) is the NL leader in bWAR by a pitcher.

Lucky for the Reds, though, they’ll miss Dollander, who pitched Sunday in the team’s final game in New York. Instead, they’ll open play on Tuesday against veteran lefty Kyle Freeland, who is off to a brilliant start of his own so far this season (2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP across 3 starts). Cincinnati, meanwhile, will counter with their own burgeoning ace in Chase Burns, who’ll look to fireball his way past this upstart Colorado offense.

First pitch on Tuesday is set for 6:40 PM ET. With a left-handed starter on the bump for the Rockies, the Reds have chosen to stack righties in their lineup like this:

The red-hot Nate Lowe remains in the lineup as the lone guy who’ll bat left-handed against Freeland.

Go Reds!

Shohei Ohtani snapped the longest home run drought of his Dodgers tenure in a three-hit game on Sunday, and collected three more hits, including an RBI double in the ninth on Monday to help set up Kyle Tucker’s walk-off winner. Ohtani has reached base nine times in his last 14 plate plate appearances over the last three games.

But he won’t hit in Tuesday’s game against the Miami Marlins, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed on Monday night. Instead, Ohtani will focus on pitching, part of the ever-present puzzle of managing the workload of a two-way player who excels at both pitching and hitting.

This is the second time in five pitching starts for Ohtani this season in which he was not also the designated hitter. The first time, on April 15 against the New York Mets, came two days after getting hit by a pitch on the back of his right shoulder, which factored into the decision.

By not swapping spots with Tyler Glasnow this series (to start the day before an off day), Ohtani on Tuesday will pitch on five days rest for the first time this season. After starting the fifth game of the season on the mound, Ohtani’s other pitching starts came on seven, six, and six days of rest.

Some of the cost of removing Ohtani from the lineup is mitigated somewhat by having backup catcher Dalton Rushing ready and able to fill in when needed at designated hitter. Rushing so far this season has started once each at DH and first base in addition to his nine catching starts, and is hitting .385/.467/.974 with seven home runs, second on the team despite batting only 45 times.

Speaking of Rushing, he pinch-hit for second baseman Santiago Espinal in the ninth inning and walked, helping to set up Tucker’s game-winner. But had the Dodgers only tied the game, things would have gotten weird in the 10th inning, because the Dodgers at that point were out of position players.

Roberts told reporters Monday night that in the 10th he would have moved Max Muncy to second base, and moved Freddie Freeman to third base with Rushing at first base. Muncy has 161 career starts at second base, but the last one was in 2022, before Major League Baseball put limitations on defensive shifts. Freeman started 16 games at third base way back in 2017 with the Atlanta Braves, but otherwise has only worn a first baseman’s glove in the field in his 17-year career.

Sure, the Dodgers won on Monday, but at the cost of expanding our sense of wonder.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Marlins
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Time: 7:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

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It's an AL East theme to our MLB best bets today, as we're starting the day off with two moneylines and an Over/Under involving that division, based on the prices at Polymarket.

See why our expert MLB picks are keying in on the prices for Boston and Tampa Bay to win today, plus Baltimore to be part of a slug fest.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: BOS ML	-104
Neil Parker: TB ML	+117
Joe Osborne: HOU/BAL o9	-108

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Red Sox moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

The Boston Red Sox have picked things up after ownership made coaching changes following a slow start. Since then, they’ve won two straight and may hold the starting pitching edge today against the Toronto Blue Jays, who were limited to two hits yesterday (with just one off starter Ranger Suarez through eight innings). Payton Tolle was dominant in his season debut, while Trey Yesavage is making his first start after a rough rehab stint, posting an 8.59 ERA over 14+ innings, and threw just 2 1/3 innings in his last outing. The fair price on this moneyline sits closer to -115, giving Boston value.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

The Tampa Bay Rays send the better offense to the dish, with a 10th-ranked wOBA and the lowest strikeout percentage in the majors against righties. Plus, I don’t think Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibee is completely healthy: He exited his first start of the season with right shoulder inflammation, yet never missed a turn in the rotation. His velocity dipped across the board in his most recent start, and he’s also surrendered an alarming 53.2% hard-hit rate this year.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Astros/Orioles Over 9

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

Kai-Wei Teng gets the start for the Houston Astros, but hasn’t reached the fourth inning in any outing this season, which likely forces heavy bullpen usage. That's not good, as the Astros bullpen has been a disaster lately. On the other side, Shane Baz is coming off back-to-back starts with four earned runs allowed. The Over has also hit in eight of nine for the Astros and in seven straight games for the Baltimore Orioles.

More MLB best bets for today

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The Athletics have endured four consecutive losing seasons as they relocated eastward to Sacramento on their way to Las Vegas, but they appear to climbing out of their hole with a young roster. They had a winning record (35-29) after the All-Star break last year, and are in first place early in this season.

Kansas City Royals (11-17) vs. Athletics (15-13) at Sutter Health Park, Sacramento, CA

Royals: 4.18 runs scored/game (21st in MLB), 4.86 runs allowed/game (21st)

Athletics: 4.25 runs scored/game (18th), 4.54 runs allowed/game (18th)

The Athletics’ offensive numbers are very similar to the Royals in runs-per-game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, and steals. They have a .360 on-base percentage at home and .291 on the road.

Twenty-nine year old rookie Carlos Cortes has been on fire, hitting .538 (14-for-26) with three home runs in his last seven games, earning AL Player of the Week honors. Nick Kurtz was fifth in the American League with 36 home runs last year, despite not making his MLB debut until April 23. Former Royals slugger Brent Rooker has struggled, but is just coming off the Injured List after missing time with an oblique injury. Infielder Jacob Wilson has the second-lowest walk rate in baseball, with just one free pass in 27 games. Max Muncy (not THIS Max Muncy) has a 35.6 percent strikeout, sixth-highest in baseball. Backup catcher Austin Wynns hit two of his six home runs last year against the Royals.

Aaron Civale has given up 17 hits and 8 runs in 10 innings over his last two starts. Salvador Perez is a career .333 hitters (7-for-21) with three home runs against him. He throws his cutter one-third of the time, but opponents are hitting .296 against it this year.

Luis Severino won his first game of the year in his last start, giving up one run in 6.2 innings against the Rangers. He’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals, but he has a 6.15 ERA in 17 starts at Sutter Health Park.

Jeffrey Springs has had a reverse split this year, with righties hitting .185/.269/.326 against him this year. He has a 48 percent whiff rate on his change up and has been good at suppressing hard contact.

The A’s have a 4.05 ERA from their bullpen, using a collection of unproven pitchers, and cast-offs from other organizations. Joel Kuhnel is a 31-year-old journeyman who barely has 100 career MLB innings, and has been anointed the closer early on, although 26-year-old Jack Perkins has also had some save opportunities. Former Royals pitcher Scott Barlow joined the A’s after posting a 4.21 ERA in 75 games with the Reds last year.

After a disappointing series loss at home to the White Sox, the Athletics went on the road and won series in Seattle and Texas. They have some talent, but a lot of inconsistent pitching. Sutter Health Park has been a very home run-friendly ballpark, so this is an opportunity for the Royals’ offense to keep rolling.

Last season, I revived the wonderful groug’s Bullpen Trust Power Ranking bit to… mixed results. This year, I thought I’d try something different and simply review it every month. It’s not yet the end of April, but it’s been over a month since the season started, so now is a great time to check in. My one sentence review:

It has been way better than three NRIs in a trench coat.

When the season started, the bullpen seemed like an experiment being conducted by Buster Posey and Zack Minasian to see just how anonymous they could make the group. The Giants obviously believe that spending lots of money on pitching is one of the deadliest things a team can do and so they look to cut corners there wherever they can. And, perhaps, Buster Posey’s memory of being a player might have him thinking about the “guy off the street” feeling the bullpens had during the championship era and letting that inform his decision-making. I am a big believer in the whole “relievers are fungible” philosophy. It feels like the Giants have taken it to an extreme.

That might have more to do with Posey being a Hall of Fame catcher than a sophomore exec, though, and after hiring a guy with a staff well-versed in coaching up and optimizing pitchers, it all makes a lot of sense. Our general unfamiliarity with it is less important than the results on the field. Which, as you’ll recall, weren’t great in the first week or so.

This morning, Alex Pavlovic pointed out in a post that the Giants’ bullpen looks incredible — a 1.51 ERA! — if you pick things up starting April 7th. That leads the sport. Their 2.73 xERA is 2nd overall and leads the NL, too, in this same span. Of course, overall, the bullpen has been good from an ERA standpoint (2.93 — 3rd in MLB), but this micro-split, timed with the Giants turning things around overall (10-7 from April 7th on), feels appropriate.

We’re in the small sample size fun zone of the early season for sure, but the improvised, figure it out as they go bullpen is being figured out before our very eyes. One important-ish stat I talked about two and a half weeks ago was the average fastball velocity, which at the time — in, again, what was a very small sample — was 10th in MLB at 94.7 mph. But with lots more Erik Miller, Keaton Winn, Caleb Kilian, and now Blade Tidwell contributing to the sample, they’ve sped up to 4th overall in MLB (95.7 mph) which is a big part of why the team is #7 in MLB in bullpen strikeout rate (24.8%). This is the really good stuff.

Where the bullpen remains troubling is in the other two outcomes: an 11.9% walk rate that’s 23rd in MLB. They’re hanging around middle of the pack when it comes to home runs on flyballs, too. These are all “for the season” results, so let’s hop back to that “since April 7th” cutoff that Pavlovic provided this morning.

Individually, while there’s a lot of JT Brubaker in the sample, his lesser stuff is balanced out by a bracing shot of Blade Tidwell, who probably didn’t think he would be destined for a bullpen role when the Giants traded for him, but he’s been really effective there. Another see-saw of talent is groundball rates. Keaton Winn and Matt Gage are closer to 40%, and along with JT Brubaker this trio represents the flyball sector of the bullpen. Brubaker is skating by on cunning and guile in that regard, but Gage’s 92.5 mph average velocity and 6.13 FIP on a .188 BAbip are yellowish-red flags for that pair. Meanwhile, Keaton Winn’s 1.23 FIP is the other side of those concerns. He’s just been that good. Even Ryan Borucki has been solid (1.93 ERA in last 5 appearances) and Ryan Walker has been good — nowhere close to the half-season disaster of 2025.

Another “since April 7th” stat: every reliever has helped the Giants win. They all have positive Win Probability Added. Click the link and check it out right now! We might never see that again. Sure, it might seem like cheating to toss out a handful of games to make the picture look better, but it’s such a stark difference and the eye test from this recent run of games only supports it that I declare it’s not bad or illogical to do that. The Giants left Arizona knowing they had to figure some things out.

So, the great bullpen experiment of 2026 has worked out positively so far, perhaps even sooner than expected. It’s a bullpen that features different looks. Not just from arm angles, but also velocity and general stuff. It’s funky and it’s working well.