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You’d be excused if you avoided watching the Detroit Tigers in the month of May, as injuries and underperformance led to a 6-22 record for the month. If that was you, you might’ve missed Dillon Dingler’s early-season breakout. However, Dingler’s rampage through early June makes one thing clear: Detroit has a top catcher on their roster right now, likely the favorite to start the All Star Game for the American League.

Coming off a strong 2025 season, Dingler seemed like a solid starting catcher to begin with. He paired Gold Glove defense with a .752 OPS, basically league average. Considering the league-average catcher’s OPS was just .696, Dillon repeating 2025 would have made him an under the radar top-5 to 7 catcher in the league.

Instead, Dingler has improved across the board. The 27-year-old backstop has always taken an aggressive approach at the plate, looking to do damage and hit his way on base, which led to a 4.9% walk rate last year. That worked because he hit the ball hard anyways, but it’s a major limitation to his ceiling; there just aren’t many great hitters with walk rates around 5% anymore. Those that do need either outlier raw power or contact skills to stand out; Dingler had neither, so a bit more patience was probably his best path forward. So far, so good; he’s spiked his walk rate up to 8.9%, basically league average, to create a far more stable offensive approach.

However, if all Dingler did was walk more, he wouldn’t be a prime contender to start the All Star Game as the American League’s catcher; that’s only the first step. He also slashed his strikeout rate from 23.5% to a better-than-average 19.4%, and more importantly, has 16 home runs on June 10th compared to the 13 home runs he mashed in all of 2025.

This is what controlling the zone really looks like. Take your walks, lay off pitches you can’t handle, and punish the baseball if a pitcher throws you something he shouldn’t have. Despite some rough BABIP luck, Dingler’s hiked his OPS all the way up to .857 this year, 3rd among all catchers.

In terms of pitch type success, the big change for Dingler this season is that rather than chasing breaking balls, he’s forcing pitchers in need of an answer against him, because you don’t want to pump fastballs with abandon to Dillon Dingler, to try and spot their breaking stuff for strikes. That’s now a particularly dangerous game, as Dingler holds a .508 weighted onbase average (wOBA) against breaking balls this year. Last year his mark against breaking stuff was a .263 wOBA. The weakness pitchers could most exploit in 2024-2025 is now a strength. There’s even a minor argument that Dingler has outperformed his results. His overall wOBA on the season stands at a whopping .371 mark, but his expected wOBA based on contact and batted ball data is .407.

How’s he doing this, then? On the plate discipline side, it’s pretty simple. Dingler’s seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone, he’s swinging at about the same rates as always, and he’s whiffing a little less than he did last year. That means taking more pitches out of the zone and fewer swinging strikes, hence the improved walk and strikeout rates. Most likely, pitchers saw he was pretty aggressive last year, and haven’t adjusted back to his slightly more patient approach. Of course, what he’s doing when they put something in the zone could also be scaring them back out of it.

To put it simply, Dingler is crushing pitches in the zone with two basic tenets: making a lot of contact and hitting balls really hard in the air. In both respects he has improved from 2025, and combined, those are pretty big changes on the stat sheet. Seriously. He’s 15th in biggest gainers in contact rate and 19th in biggest gainers in barrel rate. Pulling that off at the same time is the simplest way to level up as a hitter. Why wouldn’t you want to make more contact while also making better contact?

For most hitters, they have to pick one or the other. The guys who do both are the names you know from teams you don’t follow. Dingler’s special, however, because he’s doing this as a Gold Glove caliber catcher. And yeah, he’s still one of the best defensive backstops in the game.

As of today, Dingler is tied for 5th in all of baseball in Fielding Run Value at 8, BasaballSavant’s best attempt at a catch-all fielding statistic. This incorporates Outs Above Average, Arm Value, and Catcher Throwing, Blocking and Framing, from all positions. It’s worth mentioning that FRV is a counting stat, and Dingler only plays about 70% of all Detroit’s innings, because he’s a catcher. Only Adley Rutschmaan, another excellent catcher, has 8 or more FRV in fewer innings than Dingler. And despite nearly 100 fewer innings than most other top defenders, he’s 5th, ahead of names like Fernando Tatis Jr and Andres Gimenez.

As icing on the cake, Dingler is also arguably the best catcher at challenging pitches, which is a totally awesome perk that isn’t (yet) included in FRV. Seriously, we went over this about a month ago, and he was top-5 then. Now, Dingler leads the league in ‘net overturns more than expected’ based on the opportunities he gets to challenge. He’s also 3rd in overturn rate among catchers with at least 40 challenges, at 70%. Add it to the long list of things Dingler is excellent at.

Basically, if you wanted to build a good position player in a lab, it would be what Dingler’s doing early in 2026. Start with an excellent up-the-middle defender, then make him coincidentally one of the best at handling the new ABS system for a smidgen of extra value. Then, double that player’s previous walk rates and home run rates, and for good measure, reduce his strikeout rate, all at the same time, so he’s now making more contact that’s also better. Put all that together, and you get Dillon Dingler, tied for 3rd in all of baseball in fWAR with Corbin Carrol. The guys he’s behind? Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez. You’ve heard of them, I’m sure.

Will he keep it up? Maybe. So many of his process stats have leveled up, it feels like most of the gains are legitimate so far. Maybe he breaks down in the second half as his catcher’s workload stacks up on him. Or maybe he just… keeps going. The defense is stable – he’s been among the best defensive catchers in baseball for almost 2 years now – and walks don’t typically dry up all of a sudden. Catchers are notoriously slow to develop at the dish, so peaking at age 27 really isn’t that big of a surprise. At this pace, the All-Star Game should be just the next step in an outstanding season full of accolades.

I don’t have to tell you that the Cubs have been just awful over their last 28 games, going 7-21 after a 27-12 start.

That leaves them just one game over .500 entering tonight’s contest against the Rockies at Coors Field.

Let’s look at some of the numbers from that great 39-game start, and then the same numbers from the 28-game collapse (and really, it can’t be called anything other than a “collapse” right now.

Over the first 39 games the Cubs batted .258/.354/.429. They scored 215 runs (5.51 per game) and had 62 doubles and 51 home runs (1.31 homers per game). They drew 185 walks (4.74 per game) and struck out 308 times (7.92 per game).

In the last 28 games, the Cubs batted .213/.304 /.334. They scored 98 runs (3.5 per game) and had 39 doubles and 25 home runs (0.89 homers per game). They drew 111 walks (3.96 per game) and struck out 254 times (9.07 per game).

So as you can see, the Cubs got significantly worse in every offensive category over the last 28 games. They’re still walking at a decent rate, but even that is down from earlier in the year.

But it’s not just the bats that have gone silent. The pitching staff has just gotten pounded.

Over the first 39 games, Cubs pitchers had a 3.75 ERA and 1.189 WHIP, with a 4.15 FIP. They allowed 47 home runs (1.21 per game), issued 123 walks (3.15 per game) and struck out 323 (8.28 per game).

In the last 28 games, Cubs pitchers posted a 5.17 ERA and 1.325 WHIP, with a 5.23 FIP. They allowed 51 home runs (1.82 per game), issued 80 walks (2.86 per game) and struck out 208 (7.43 per game).

The home run number is ghastly. It’s gone up by more than .60 per game, and the 98 homers the Cubs have allowed this season are the most of any team (four more than the Nationals).

So it’s basically everything. Over the 28 game slump the Cubs have been outscored 148-91. That’s an average of 5.29 runs allowed and 3.25 runs scoreed per game — so they’ve been outscored by an average of two runs per game for an entire month, basically. They’ve been shut out four times and scored one or two runs nine other times, winning just one of those nine (2-o over the Braves May 14, largely thanks to great pitching by Ben Brown).

What is the answer to this?

Well, if I knew that, I’d certainly tell Jed Hoyer and Craig Counsell.

It’s mystifying how an entire team can slump this badly, both offensively and the pitching staff. Some of the pitching issues are injury-related, but not all of them. What’s happened to Shōta Imanaga, for example, is almost inexplicable. How does a guy pitch lights-out for nine starts (2.32 ERA, just five home runs in 54 innings), then just get absolutely hammered by opposing hitters (four starts, 10.80 ERA, 12 home runs in 21.1 innings)?

I have to believe these guys are all better than they’ve shown over the last 28 games. Usually, when a team’s hitters or pitchers go into slumps, they have other guys on the team to carry them. The only Cubs hitters who have hit reasonably well over the last month are Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch. The only pitchers who have been solid for that time are Ben Brown and Jacob Webb.

It will turn around. It has to. Right? Right?

There’s no question that the Giants lost something when they traded away Patrick Bailey now one month ago, but the franchise seems comfortable with their new direction, even if it’s a little unclear in a bad way just how much has been lost. They embarked on it for two reasons: an offensive uptick and more leadership at the position. Have either of these tasks been accomplished since the trade went down 30 days ago yesterday?

Before the trade, Bailey hit .146/.213/.183 (.396 OPS) in 30 games and 86 PA. The Giants’ lineup had a team wRC+ of 81 through the first 38 games of the season while the pitching staff had a 3.63 ERA in his 238.1 innings catching (3.93 overall — 12th).

Now, I’m including the team’s total offensive production here because in looking at it by positional split I came away pretty surprised. Patrick Bailey was completely awful — one of the worst professional hitters on planet Earth — but with Daniel Susac’s .478/.500/.652 line in 24 plate appearances and .300/.300/.500 in 10 PA from Eric Haase, the Giants’ catching position was not the worst in baseball through May 8th. At 83 wRC+ (.244/.297/.345), it ranked 16th, ahead of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Rangers, Mariners , Guardians, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Blue Jays, and Phillies. So, the notion that the Giants had to get more offense out of the position was sort of… wrong? Remarkably, it was about as bad as the rest of the lineup. But Patrick Bailey’s .146 made him an obvious target.

[He has also hit .220/.276/.324 since the start of last season.]

Since the trade, the Giants’ lineup has a 126 wRC+ in 30 games, the best lineup in baseball. Ditching Bailey has raised the catching position all the way down to 17th in MLB with an 81 wRC+ (.206/.283/.346). The team’s ERA has been the third-worst at 5.16 though the stolen base success rate has dropped a bit, from 76.3% with Bailey to 73.5% without.

Compare to what’s happening over with Cleveland. Prior to the trade, their team ERA of 4.01 was 14th in MLB. Since then, it’s risen to 7th with a 3.45 result. What’s interesting about that is that Bailey’s catcher ERA in the 16 games he’s caught in is just 4.02 in 130 innings. Their catching position has dropped on the hitting side from a 65 wRC+ (23rd) to 55 (25th) “thanks” to Bailey’s abysmal .167/.196/.333 in 17 games (51 PA). I wouldn’t say it has been a slam dunk move, but it has certainly helped Cleveland more than it’s hurt them.

The results were pretty strongly in favor of the Guardians since the early going, prompting many people on social media to immediately respond with “Bailey isn’t starting in Cleveland so this is misleading!” but that’s sort of besides the point because it’s not as though the Giants couldn’t have done the same thing. Their options were to bench him entirely (which is the first thing they did), demote him, trade him, or diminish his playing time. That last option would’ve probably been the most difficult to do given all the success that he’s had and a trade might have been the only way to get him to “accept” the role, but it is pretty clear that the Giants found his value to be more theoretical than tangible, hence trading him for a draft pick and a pitching prospect, both “assets” of theoretical value.

Some consideration must be given to how the relationship between the team and the player could’ve frayed so much. It’s not as though the catching position has been a traditionally important part of a lineup and as a general scapegoat for the likes of Devers, Chapman, and Adames woefully underperforming (and let’s throw Jung Hoo Lee in there for good measure) it’s more of a bad look for the team than the player, but let’s put ourselves on the organization’s side here.

Like all of Buster Posey’s big moves (Adames, the Devers trade, dumping Bob Melvin and replacing him with a college coach), the trade was defensible in the moment. The relationship between player and team had hit a wall and there was a move to be made that netted them a meaningful draft pick and a pitching prospect who could boost a thin part of their farm system. And like all of these big moves, it sort of needs 2-3 years to really play out before we can say whether or not it was “good.”

In the podcast discussion between Roger Munter and Kerry Crowley that I linked to before, Crowley suggested that Buster Posey might have his idea of what a team’s starting catcher should be like in terms of personality. Someone a little more outgoing and leader-like. Roger was quick to point out that a Rule 5 pick and minor leaguer (at the time, Jesus Rodriguez was the de facto backup catcher) might not slip right into that role. Everything that we’ve seen suggests that the Giants just wanted different energy in that position and figured that the slumps of a Rule 5 pick, a prospect, or a journeyman backup couldn’t be worse than the full-time work Patrick Bailey offered with the bat. In terms of the defense? Maybe they thought that the ABS Challenge System would be a way to shore up whatever defensive deficiencies there might be in going from Bailey to Susac and backup.

The other part of this, of course, is that Patrick Bailey wasn’t one of Buster Posey’s successes. Farhan Zaidi gets credit for that. And that made it even easier to move him once he became a problem — which, to be clear, the front office and coaching staff affirmed that he had become a problem. But now the Giants have to live with the consequences of such a big move and a month out, it’s unclear if it’s one that’s worked out.

The Giants were 15-23 (.395) when Patrick Bailey was on the team. They’re 12-18 (.400) without him. Seems like a wash. Sure, the lineup got better, but the pitching staff seems to have gotten worse. But maybe this season was always destined for failure. So, let’s be real fair and revisit this in 2 years to see how that draft pick and Matt Wilkinson worked out for them.

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a favorable matchup tonight against Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, and his underlying metrics suggest a breakout performance at the plate may be imminent.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 10.

Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions

Phillies vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles (-135)

Jesus Luzardo owns a 4.35 ERA while ranking in the 59th percentile in opponent expected batting average this season. He also hasn't done a great job limiting quality contact, ranking in just the 58th percentile in barrel suppression.

That spells trouble against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who matches up well against Luzardo's arsenal (four-seamer, changeup, sweeper). He owns a .340 batting average against those pitches along with a 24.4% line-drive rate this season.

He's also displayed an excellent approach at the plate this season, ranking in the 91st percentile in expected batting average.

More so, Vladdy's hard-hit rate against Luzardo's pitch mix has jumped to 57% in June, up from his 45.8% season average. Given his naturally low launch-angle profile, that increase in hard contact should translate into more line drives and sharply-hit balls finding the outfield grass. I'd bet this up to -150.

COVERS INTEL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s singles make up for 79% of his 67 total hits this season.

Phillies vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Kazuma Okamoto matches up very well with Luzardo’s three-pitch mix, owning a .417 average and a 16% barrel rate against them when facing southpaws. I’ll add Over 0.5 hits for Okamoto to my SGP. 

Jays starter Max Scherzer has faced J.T. Realmuto 64 times in his career and owns a 31.2% strikeout rate against him. The Phillies catcher also owns just a .184 average against the four-seamer with a 19.6% K-rate, which is Scherzer's top pitch.

Phillies vs Blue Jays SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
• J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 strikeouts

Phillies vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+380)

Luzardo gave up three homers in his last outing, but went four straight starts prior without allowing one, so we’ll just make this a half-unit wager.

However, Okamoto’s hitting profile matches up extremely well against the Philadelphia Phillies starter, making him the best bet to go yard tonight for the Jays. 

Okamoto barrels the baseball well against left-handed pitchers, resulting in a .417 average against Luzardo’s three most-used pitches with an .833 slug and a 57.9% hard-hit rate.

Phillies vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia -130 | Toronto +110
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+120) | Toronto +1.5 (-140)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Phillies vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have gone Over the total in eight of their last 11 games for +4.8 units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Phillies vs Blue Jays and game info

Phillies vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Phillies vs Blue Jays weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

PITTSBURGH –– With plastic cups full of sparkling wine raised in the air around him, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts led a toast to Freddie Freeman in the visiting clubhouse at PNC Park on Tuesday night.

First, Roberts congratulated the team’s star first baseman on reaching 2,500 career hits –– the latest distinguished milestone in Freeman’s future Hall of Fame career.

Then, as Freeman later recounted with a laugh during his postgame address with reporters, Roberts turned to the 36-year-old veteran and took a peek down the road.

“You’d better get 500 more,” Roberts joked.

“That’s a challenge, a tall order,” the skipper later added. “But I’m not gonna bet against him.”

Entering this season, that had been Freeman’s plan following a rejuvenating and fully healthy winter: Play three more years. Retire at the age of 40. And, injury- and performance-permitting, join MLB’s exclusive 3,000 career hits club at some point along the way.

He knew it wasn’t a certainty. As he joked this spring, “Father Time is going to catch up.”

What he didn’t expect, however, was for his latest foray into fatherhood to so quickly change his perspective first.

“I would love to get to 3,000 hits. I would love to. I’m not going to deny that,” Freeman said Tuesday night. “But do I know if I’m going to get there? I don’t know.”

Indeed, while 3,000 hits remains a goal for Freeman –– who would be just the 34th player all-time to accomplish the feat –– the journey still required to get there has raised newly conflicting feelings for the nine-time All-Star and former National League MVP.

In April, Freeman and his wife Chelsea welcomed their fourth child and first daughter London Rosemary Joy into the world. In a family of all sons previously, having a baby girl in the house was like stepping into a whole new world for Freeman himself, too.

“We just stare at her all day,” he said upon returning from the paternity list two days after London’s birth. “It’s been special the last couple days. We got to take her home last night. So we had one night with her. And I already miss her.”

Over his 17-year career, of course, Freeman has long become accustomed to the trade-offs of being both a dad and a big-league ballplayer; to all the little moments that get missed, and all the FaceTime calls that only compensate for so much, amid long seasons spent largely at the ballpark or on the road.

Still, this year, the toll of it all has impacted Freeman more than he expected.

“It’s just hard when you’re seeing her growing up on the phone,” he told The California Post later Tuesday night, in a quiet moment of reflection from his locker after the plastic cups had been put away and the bottles of celebratory champagne re-corked. “She’s already moved up to bigger diapers, and I didn’t really get to see it. So that’s the hard part … It weighs on my heart.”

Freeman first noted such emotional complexities in an interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal last month.

Unlike with his three sons, who have become fixtures around Dodger Stadium during the slugger’s five-year tenure with the club, he pointed out then how his daughter won’t be old enough to remember his playing days, even if he hangs on until his 40th birthday.

“I’m missing things for something she’ll never know,” he said. “She’s not going to know I missed these things either.”

With each passing week and each new road trip, he reiterated on Tuesday night, that feeling has gnawed at him even more.

“If you would have asked me three days ago, I’d have said, ‘Oh, I’ve got three more years,’ because I had just been home and taking the kids to school,” he said. “But if you ask me [at the end of this trip] against the White Sox on Sunday, after five days on the road, I’d be like, ‘Next year is good.’”

That doesn’t mean the pull of 3,000 hits has gone away.

On Tuesday, when he eclipsed the 2,500 mark with an RBI single in the Dodgers’ 10-run seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates, he relished the reception he got from teammates and coaches in the clubhouse, and let his mind wander to what another 500 knocks would mean.

“The next one,” he said, “is the big one.”

The closer he gets, though, the more difficult the pursuit will become.

“When you get up there [in career hits], everyone is talking about it,” he said. “And I get it. I get how special it is, I do. But if that’s the only reason I’m still trying to play and leaving my family every other week, to go get a round number, is that really gonna change how people view it?”

Some of this might wind up being out of Freeman’s control.

There’s the threat of a lockout next season, which would likely dash his 3,000-hit dreams if much (or, in a worst-case scenario, all) of the 2027 schedule is wiped out by a work stoppage.

“I’m not gonna be 41 [and still] playing,” he quipped.

There’s also his uncertain long-term contract situation, with the Orange County native –– who has repeatedly stated his desire to retire with his hometown Dodgers –– set to become a free agent at the end of 2027.

“I’m not gonna go play with another team just to chase a round number,” he said.

That’s why, for now, Freeman is simply grateful to still be playing at a high level, to still be competing for World Series titles with a dynasty Dodgers club, and to still be experiencing other milestone moments like Tuesday’s.

“There’s always another goal to get to,” he said. “But to step back and realize how long you have to play, the consistency over that –– to play at a high level over many, many years –– to get there, it does mean a lot.”

As for where it leaves his pursuit of 3,000 hits?

“I’ve been blessed to play a long time, so if it didn’t happen, I would be OK with it,” he said. “I never played for individual numbers to begin with. So if I’m all of a sudden chasing individual numbers, then I’ve lost what baseball means to me. And baseball has meant everything to me. I’ve already accomplished a lot. So if I’m doing it for individual things, then I think I’ve lost what I set out to do this for.”

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