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Today’s Reflections

Yeah. That was fun Wednesday. Really fun.

There is a lot of talk about the 23-3 blasting of the Padres below, and plenty of talk about Dansby Swanson hitting out of his mind, so I won’t regurgitate all the names, numbers and legends involved.

I was just reflecting on this first half of the season. No matter where the Cubs finish this season, it will still be a season to remember. Two 10-game winning streaks in a 23-game span when everything was clicking. A 10-game losing streak when it all was falling apart. PCA doing things just a couple of guys have done before. Swanson matching a gathering of legends. While they were killing it, Seiya Suzuki was steadily pumping out key hits and improved defensive play. Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto are starting stir a bit at the plate. All of this during a 15-4 run in the Cubs’ last 19 games. And don’t forget the 10 walk-off wins they have already collected. All in all, the Cubs have positioned themselves for a run for the Central Division title.

Yes, we have to hold our breath with each start and pitching change as the staff keeps its head just above water. But there have been some remarkable games and performances we won’t forget.

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Stories from Wednesday’s game:

• Jesse Rogers (ESPN): Dansby Swanson hits 3 homers, 8 RBIs as Cubs torch Padres 23-3. “Dansby Swanson’s historic day included a grand slam and the most RBIs by a Cubs player since Sammy Sosa had nine in 2002.”

• Field Level Media (Deadspin): Cubs smack 8 homers, score 23 runs while steamrolling Padres. “The Cubs, hit five home runs Tuesday in a 9-7 win and eight on Wednesday to sweep the series and win their fifth consecutive game.”

• Casey Drotter (MLB.com): Dansby shines (3 HRs, 8 RBIs) in Cubs’ historic 23-run, 8-HR romp. “It wasn’t so long ago that the Cubs were scuffling, trying to regain their footing after navigating through a 10-game losing streak.”

• Casey Drotter (MLB.com): 100! Suzuki’s monster HR sends Cubs slugger into Japanese-born history. “The Cubs’ right fielder became just the fourth Japanese-born big leaguer to reach that milestone.”

• Zoe Grossman (Chicago Sun-Times): 3 Takeaways After Cubs Hit Record-Tying Number of Home Runs to Sweep Padres. “Dansby Swanson and Michael Conforto each had multi-homer games as the Cubs put up 23 runs in the series finale.”

A deserved block of stories about Dansby Swanson’s run of late:

• Zoe Grossman (Chicago Cubs On SI): Cubs’ Dansby Swanson Is So Hot, He’s Putting Up Sammy Sosa Numbers (Seriously). “The Cubs shortstop’s 26 RBI in 10 games surpassed Sosa for the most in that span.”
• Andrew Wright (Yardbarker): Cubs’ Dansby Swanson is on an all-time hot streak. “It took some time for things to click, but Dansby Swanson has officially caught fire.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Dansby Swanson’s RBI Binge Puts Him Rarefied Air Among Several Legends. “Not all that long ago, certain segments of Cubs fandom were begging for Dansby Swanson to be benched or even released.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Behind Dansby Swanson, Cubs’ resurgent bats bash 13 homers in two days: ‘RBIs are a good thing, right?’ “Swanson hit five homers and drove in 11 runs in two games as the Cubs’ offense exploded against the Padres, showing what it’s capable of as the team chases championship-level goals.”

Some PCA stories:

• Ryan Herrera (Just Baseball): Pete Crow-Armstrong Wins a Much-Deserved NL Player of the Month. “Pete Crow-Armstrong, the young Chicago Cubs star, put together a month to remember.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): As Pete Crow-Armstrong moves past spectacular June, is MVP talk in his future? ‘That dude can carry a team’. “The Cubs’ center fielder put up one of the best statistical months that baseball has ever seen in June. With him standing among the game’s best players midway through the season, will “MVPETE” become a reality?“
• Jake Misener (Cubbies Crib): Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong has turned his biggest weakness into a major strength. “Chicago Cubs superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong is closing the gap on Shohei Ohtani in the NL MVP race, thanks to a huge adjustment he’s made at the plate.”

Trade Talk and Injury News:

• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Cubs Injury Updates: Taillon, Cabrera, Palencia, Maton, Miller, Wiggins. “A few Chicago Cubs injury updates for your off-day updating … , Jameson Taillon’s rehab start will be for the Iowa Cubs on Sunday.”
• Steve Drumwright (North Side Baseball): Drew Pomeranz Returns To Cubs’ Bullpen. “The left-hander had been released by the Angels a couple weeks ago, but finds a second life in 2026 with Chicago, where he pitched last season.”
• Matt Sullivan (Sporting News): Cubs trade idea with Red Sox reunites with beloved closer for two notable prospects. “This would be a huge move for the Cubs, but a very fun one.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Amid pitching injuries, Cubs need Matthew Boyd to make big impact as summer goes on: ‘That’s our ace’. “The Cubs need Boyd, who has made only seven starts this season due to injuries, show up in a big way as they spend the summer waiting for health to return to their pitching staff.”

Assorted stories:

• Casey McAleer (Da Windy City): Cubs’ five-game winning streak has finally put the NL Central back within reach. “Chicago’s recent surge has transformed what once looked like a lost season into a manageable climb.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): 3 takeaways from Chicago Cubs’ series sweep, including Dansby Swanson’s hot streak and pitchers stepping up. “The Chicago Cubs’ 23 runs Wednesday were their most in a game in 31 years, while their eight home runs tied the franchise record.”
• Tyler Courtney (LastWordOnSports): Is the Chicago Cubs’ Hitting Getting Hot at the Perfect Moment? “How June Sparked the Cubs Hitting.”
• Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune {$}): Column: Chicago Cubs President Jed Hoyer defends Alex Bregman’s running lapse, calling it a ‘nonissue’. “Alex Bregman’s reputation should provide him with the benefit of the doubt from fans upset he didn’t run at full speed on a grounder during Sunday’s game in Milwaukee.”
• Tyler Courtney (LastWordOnSports): Who Can Fill the Gap in the Cubs Right Field? “The combination of (Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw) left the team feeling confident, with solid depth across the rest of the organization. However, that has quickly taken a turn for the worse due to injuries. Now, the team is desperate to find a solution as it looks to build on its recent hot streak.”

Food For Thought:

Big ED Sullivan comes from Brooklyn, New York. He grew not far from the Gowanus canal, but god knows he never fished there! But, he spent hours and hours shaprening his talents on guitar and harmonica while watching his friends falling like flies, victims of drugs and gang wars.

“Yes,” says ED, “Music for me was an escape, but at the same time, it was really what saved me from the street and from a choice that could have ruined my life.” It was this escape, like the influence of some of the great names of the blues and rockabilly — such as Slim Harpo, Albert Collins, Danny Gatton and Link Wray — which inspired Ed’s style. All these musicians hold a special place in Ed’s list of musical gods. No one plays the guitar like Ed. He has a way of transforming a melody of traditional blues or rockabilly by adding all his personality to it. His slide guitar playing is perfectly wild.

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

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Saturday's schedule is packed with intriguing matchups from start to finish, and I've broken down my favorite MLB picks for every game on the board.

From heavyweight contenders to live underdogs, these predictions are based on current form, pitching matchups, and where I see the biggest edge heading into first pitch.

MLB moneyline picks for July 4

Matchup	Pick
Pirates vs Nationals	-117
Twins vs Yankees	-170
Tigers vs Rangers	-122
Blue Jays vs Mariners	-138
Orioles vs Reds	+122
Rays vs Astros	-104
White Sox vs Guardians	-127
Cardinals vs Cubs	-127
Mets vs Braves	-163
Giants vs Rockies	-133
Phillies vs Royals	-138
Red Sox vs Angels	-138
Marlins vs Athletics	+113
Brewers vs Diamondbacks	-144
Padres vs Dodgers	-233

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-4.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 4

Pirates vs Nationals: Pirates (-117)

Pirates win probability: 54%

Pittsburgh is simply the better team right now. The Pirates own one of the league's best offenses, ranking near the top in batting average, OPS, and hits, while Washington continues to struggle on the mound. Zack Littell's ERA sits north of five, and that's a tough matchup against a lineup that consistently puts the ball in play. I'll back the deeper, more complete club.

Twins vs Yankees: Yankees (-170)

Yankees win probability: 63%

This one starts with the pitching matchup. Minnesota has been one of baseball's worst teams at preventing runs, while the Yankees lead the majors in ERA and continue to get quality starts from Carlos Rodón. New York also brings the league's top home run offense, giving it another edge if this turns into a power game. The Yankees are the side.

Tigers vs Rangers: Rangers (-122)

Rangers win probability: 55%

Neither offense has lit the world on fire this season, so I'll trust the steadier starter and the home team. Cal Quantrill has quietly put together a strong year, while Jack Flaherty has struggled to find consistency. Texas has been slightly better offensively across the board, and in what projects as a close game, that's enough to get my vote.

Blue Jays vs Mariners: Mariners (-138)

Mariners win probability: 58%

Toronto has been better at putting the ball in play, but Seattle has the much stronger pitching staff, and that's the difference for me. The Mariners rank among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP, and runs allowed, while Luis Gilbert has been one of their most reliable arms. In a game where runs could be hard to come by, I'll side with the better staff.

Orioles vs Reds: Orioles (+122)

Orioles win probability: 45%

Neither bullpen has been particularly trustworthy, so I'll lean on the better lineup. Baltimore has been more consistent getting on base and creating scoring chances, while Brandon Young has given the Orioles a solid chance to win nearly every time out. Cincinnati has enough power to stay in it, but Baltimore is the more complete team.

Rays vs Astros: Rays (-104)

Rays win probability: 51%

Everything points toward Tampa Bay. The Rays have been the better team on both sides of the ball, ranking near the top of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, ERA, and WHIP. Houston still has dangerous hitters, but its pitching staff has been far too inconsistent. With Drew Rasmussen on the mound, I'll gladly back Tampa.

White Sox vs Guardians: Guardians (-127)

Guardians win probability: 56%

The White Sox actually own the better offensive numbers, but I'm still backing Cleveland. Parker Messick has been one of the more effective starters in this matchup, and the Guardians continue to do a much better job limiting runs than Chicago. Pitching usually wins games like this, and Cleveland has the edge where it matters most.

Cardinals vs Cubs: Cubs (-127)

Cubs win probability: 56%

Chicago has the edge almost everywhere I look. The Cubs rank near the top of the league in runs scored, OPS, and on-base percentage, while the Cardinals have struggled to generate consistent offense. This isn't a matchup where I want to overthink things. Chicago has the better lineup and enough pitching to take care of business at Wrigley.

Mets vs Braves: Braves (-163)

Braves win probability: 62%

This is Atlanta's matchup to lose. The Braves own the edge offensively, defensively, and on the mound, and Chris Sale has been one of the best starters in baseball with a 2.10 ERA. Sean Manaea has struggled to find consistency, while the Mets rank near the bottom of the league in just about every major offensive category. I'll lay it with Atlanta.

Giants vs Rockies: Giants (-133)

Giants win probability: 57%

Colorado's offense has been solid, but the Rockies simply don't get enough outs. They rank dead last in both ERA and WHIP, and that's a dangerous combination against Robbie Ray, who's quietly put together another strong season. San Francisco doesn't need to light up the scoreboard here—they just need to take advantage of one of baseball's weakest pitching staffs.

Phillies vs Royals: Phillies (-138)

Phillies win probability: 58%

Kansas City has been competitive, but Philadelphia checks more boxes. The Phillies have the better lineup, more power, and a clear edge on the mound with Jesús Luzardo facing Michael Wacha. Kansas City's pitching staff has struggled to keep runs off the board all season, and that's not the recipe you want against a Phillies offense that can score in a hurry.

Red Sox vs Angels: Red Sox (-138)

Red Sox win probability: 58%

Boston isn't an offensive powerhouse, but this matchup sets up well. The Red Sox have been the better pitching team all season, and Sonny Gray has been outstanding with a sub-3.00 ERA. The Angels have a little more pop in the lineup, but they've consistently given those runs back with shaky pitching. I'll trust Boston's starter to be the difference.

Marlins vs Athletics: Marlins (+113)

Marlins win probability: 47%

These teams are fairly even offensively, but Miami gets the nod because of the pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara has looked much closer to his old self this year, while the Athletics continue to rank near the bottom of the league in ERA and WHIP. The Marlins don't need a huge offensive night if Alcantara gives them another quality start.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Brewers (-144)

Brewers win probability: 59%

Milwaukee has been one of the more complete teams in baseball, and the numbers back it up. The Brewers rank near the top of the league in runs scored, ERA, WHIP, and on-base percentage, while Arizona has struggled on both sides of the ball. Brandon Woodruff also owns a big edge over Merrill Kelly. This is one of my stronger leans on the board.

Padres vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-233)

Dodgers win probability: 70%

There's no need to overcomplicate this one. The Dodgers lead baseball in runs, batting average, OPS, ERA, and WHIP, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball against a Padres starter carrying an ERA over seven. San Diego simply hasn't hit enough to overcome that kind of mismatch. Los Angeles is the deserved favorite.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, baseball fans!

Another week of San Francisco Giants baseball comes to a close this weekend, so it’s time to make our picks for Player of the Week!

I’m picking Rafael Devers this week, specifically for his performance in last Saturday’s 5-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, in which he hit TWO home runs, knocking in four RBI in the process. As of the time this is being written, he also has a hitting streak going for seven of the last eight games. Not a bad week, in my opinion.

Who is your pick for Player of the Week?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants play game two of this three-game series against the Colorado Rockies tonight at 5:10 p.m. PT.

Growing up in the 80’s, my brother Chris would always select Nolan Ryan on Nintendo’s RBI baseball, and for good reason.  Nobody threw as hard in a video game or in real life for that matter.  

Often overlooked due to his dominant velocity, was the relative ease in which he’d strike out hitters with his curveball which was often just as effective.   

He was the stuff of legends, and on America’s 250th birthday, we sat down with an icon exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes.  Here’s the Strikeout King and Hall Of Famer, Nolan Ryan.    

Q: Of all the No-Hitters, was one more gratifying than another?   

A: My 7^th No-Hitter probably was the most gratifying because it came so late in my career.

Q:  How often are you asked about Ventura going to the mound, and what do you think about that sequence becoming part of baseball lore?  What do you remember most about it?

A:  It’s a question that comes up quite often when someone asks about my career, and I find it interesting that it’s still on people’s mind when they talk about baseball.

Q:  Who’s a guy pitching today that you’d personally pay to watch? 

A:  I enjoy watching Gerrit Cole.

Q:  What would have happened in your day if a manager had attempted to put you on a pitch count?   

A:  Well, I would have to visit with him and see why he thought that, and why that was the best for me and my team.

Q:  What’s the most pitches you think you ever threw in a single contest?   

A:  It was speculated that in an extra innings game against Boston that I threw in the 230s

Q:  Favorite teammate?    

A:  I played for Houston for 9 years, and the nucleus of that ball club was held together.  Terry Puhl and Craig Reynolds are two of my best friends from baseball.

Q:  Toughest hitter(s) to get out?  Was there one guy that you always had difficulty with?  

A:  The type of hitter that was most challenging was a left-handed contact hitter who didn’t chase bad pitches.  Hitters such as George Brett, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, and Pete Rose were in that category.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (43-42)

SYRACUSE 8, WORSTER 6 (BOX)

MJ Melendez broke the 6-6 tie in the bottom of the seventh with a go-ahead two-run home run that led Syracuse to victory. Jorge Polance reached base once in his rehab appearance.

• RF Nick Morabito: 1-5, K, SB
• REHAB ALERT: DH Jorge Polanco: 0-3, R, BB
• PH-DH Christian Arroyo: 0-0, BB
• 2B Ji Hwan Bae: 2-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• LF MJ Melendez: 2-5, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI
• 1B Ryan Clifford: 1-3, R, BB, 2 K
• 3B Yonny Hernández: 1-2, R, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• C Ben Rortvedt: 0-3, BB, K
• CF Cristian Pache: 0-4, 2 K, E
• SS Zack Short: 1-3, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB
• P Tobias Myers: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• P Xzavion Curry: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Daniel Duarte: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Jefry Yan: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (29-50)

CHESAPEAKE 5, BINGHAMTON 4 (BOX)

The Rumble Ponies scored four runs, but Nick Lucky was the driver, driving in three-runs and stealing a base. R.J. Gordon was good, going five and striking out two, allowing no runs.

• DH Chris Suero: 1-5, 3 K, SB
• CF Jose Ramos: 1-5, K
• 1B JT Schwartz: 1-4, 2B, BB, K
• C Kevin Parada: 1-5, 2B, K
• LF Vincent Perozo: 0-3, 3 K
• RF Matt Rudick: 0-1, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 SB
• SS Wyatt Young: 0-4
• 3B Kevin Villavicencio: 1-3, R, RBI
• 2B Nick Lucky: 3-4, 3 RBI, K, SB
• P R.J. Gordon: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Justin Armbruester: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Zach Peek: 1.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Felipe De La Cruz: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (32-46)

FREDERICK 8, BROOKLYN 7 (BOX)

The Cyclones hit three home runs in their loss to the Keys. The Mets were in the hole early, as Dakota Hawkins gave up six runs (five earned) in two innings pitched.

• SS Mitch Voit: 0-5, 2 K, 2 E
• 3B Yonatan Henriquez: 1-4, R, 3 K
• C Ronald Hernandez: 1-4, 2 K, E
• 1B Corey Collins: 0-3, R, BB, K
• DH Daiverson Gutierrez: 0-3, BB, K
• CF John Bay: 1-4, R, HR, 3 RBI, K
• LF JT Benson: 1-3, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB, 2 K
• 2B Colin Houck: 1-2, R, 2 BB, K
• RF Yohairo Cuevas: 2-3, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB, K
• P Dakota Hawkins: 2.0 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Parker Carlson: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Gregori Louis: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• P Ryan Dollar: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (35-42)

TAMPA 1, ST. LUCIE 0 (BOX)

The Tarpons scored in the second off of Christian Rodriguez, who allowed seven hits across his three and two-thirds innings of work. From there, the St. Lucie bullpen was phenomenal, allowing no baserunners in five and a third innings, striking out nine. Unfortunately, the Mets couldn’t push a run across on their five hits.

• SS Elian Peña: 0-4, 2 K, SB
• CF Trey Snyder: 2-4, 2B, SB
• C Chase Meggers: 1-4, 3 K
• DH Julio Zayas: 1-3, BB
• 2B Branny De Oleo: 0-4, K
• LF Simon Juan: 0-2, 2 K
• 3B Jeremy Rodriguez: 0-3, K
• RF Jackson Hauge: 0-3, 2 K
• 1B Jack Scanlon: 0-2, 2 K
• PH Antonio Jimenez: 1-1
• P Christian Rodriguez: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
• P Tyler McLoughlin: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• P Kevin Herget: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Ernesto Mercedes: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Rookie: FCL Mets (18-24)

FCL METS 1, FCL MARLINS 1 (BOX)

[Game was suspended in the bottom of the fourth)

• DH Bohan Adderley: 0-2, 2 K
• SS Vladi Gomez: 0-2, K
• CF Wyatt Vincent: 0-2
• RF AJ Salgado: 0-1, R, BB, K
• C Yovanny Rodriguez: 1-2
• 1B Josmir Reyes: 0-1
• 3B Roybert Herrera: 0-1
• LF Heriberto Rincon: 0-1, K
• 2B Yorber Semprun: 0-1
• P Roberto Pena: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Rookie: DSL Mets Orange (14-11)

DSL GIANTS BLACK 5, DSL METS ORANGE 4 (BOX)

• SS Wandy Asigen: 0-1, 2 BB
• PR-SS Jose Padilla: 0-1, K
• DH Cleiner Ramirez: 1-4, K
• 1B Cesar Acosta: 0-4, K
• 3B Sebastian Toro: 1-4, R, 2B, E
• CF Jhonael Cuello: 3-4, 2 R, 3B, RBI, 2 SB
• C Yadier Fuentes: 1-2, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB
• C Jesus Griman: 0-0
• 2B Oscar Pena: 0-2, BB, K
• LF Anthony Delgado: 0-1, K
• RF Elvis Teran: 0-4, K
• LF-2B Roni Garcia: 1-4
• P Maxgregori Harvey: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
• P Frandy Lora: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Mauricio Nunez: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Derlin Rojas: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Rookie: DSL Mets Blue (9-14)

DSL RANGERS BLUE 13, DSL METS BLUE 12 (BOX)

• SS Johnderis Sanchez: 3-4, 3 R, 2 BB, K, SB
• DH Dayron Oramas: 3-6, 2 R, 3 RBI
• RF Henry Manrique: 1-4, 2 R, 2B, 3 RBI, BB, K
• LF Jonnhan Sanchez: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB
• 1B Frank Moreno: 0-4, R, RBI, BB, 2 K
• 3B Michalle Mercedes: 2-5, K, SB
• CF Aiberson Blanco: 0-4, R, BB, 2 K
• C Adrian Silva: 0-3, 2 R, 2 BB
• 2B Jesus Minaya: 2-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• P Eduardo Pina: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• P Arnaldo Tejeda: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• P Enmanuel Feliz: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Maykol Vasquez: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

MJ Melendez

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Arnaldo Tejada

For the next few weeks we’ll be doing some theorizing on optimal returns at the trade deadline as the Red Sox look to do another tear down amidst a hopeless season. This week, it’s Sonny Gray—and unlike last week’s Chapman conversation, this one comes with a wrinkle.

Week two of Sock Drawer. Last week it was Aroldis Chapman and a relatively clean simulation—the Sox have the asset, contenders want it, Breslow sets the price. This week is messier, because Sonny Gray has a no-trade clause, and that changes the whole conversation.

Gray has been one of the few things working on this roster in 2026. This season, he’s commanding a 2.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 75 strikeouts across 83.2 innings. He’s somehow 9-1. On a team that’s going nowhere and gives NO support for its starting pitching. As a 36-year-old who wasn’t supposed to be anyone’s ace, that’s not a just real asset. That’s a legitimate AL Cy Young contender, and the market is starting to understand what it’s looking at. The Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Giants, and others are already circling. Jon Heyman has Atlanta’s name attached.

The complication is clearly the NTC. Gray restructured his contract when he came to Boston—the Cardinals are covering $20 million of his $31 million salary, meaning an acquiring team only owes the prorated remainder plus a $10 million buyout on a mutual option. That’s manageable. But Gray gets final say on the destination, and he’s been measured about it: “If someone came to me from the Red Sox and made a decision that that’s the direction this team was going to go, I would be open for a conversation.”

Open for a conversation is not a yes. The Sox can’t just shop him to the highest bidder. The field narrows to places Gray would actually approve. Frankly, I don’t blame Gray for being measured about it. I would think even for his age and long career, staying settled in one city might be more important to him and his family than title chasing.

The whole situation is actually fine if you’re looking at things from Craig Breslow’s perspective. The teams that make sense for Gray make sense for the Sox, and the NTC creates a different kind of leverage. The places Gray would approve are serious contenders with real farm systems (for the most oart), and serious contenders with real farm systems don’t get to lowball you. If you’re smart.

One more complication: Connelly Early just went to the IL with an elbow injury. On the surface, you might think that makes Breslow more reluctant to move Gray, now that the rotation has lost two legitimate arms and he’s even more exposed. That’s not wrong. But on a team that’s going nowhere, “we need pitching depth” is not a reason to hold a guy you can turn into a top prospect or a real bullpen piece. Early going down hurts the on-field product. It doesn’t change the deadline ethos.

There’s also a decision Breslow has to make before he picks up the phone: how much salary relief is Boston putting in? The answer to that question changes the return completely.

If Boston eats a chunk of salary: the acquiring team’s cost drops, Gray becomes easier to move, and the Sox can push for a real prospect from the top of the system.

If the full contract goes with him: the team absorbs more cost, and what comes back is an MLB piece, a bullpen arm who can contribute now rather than a name on a list, but isn’t the most valuable in general.

Neither is wrong, it just depends on what Breslow thinks this team needs more. I’ll give you both just to show you what that means.

Braves

Eats salary — Owen Murphy (RHP)/Tate Southisene (2B/SS)

Full salary — Dylan Dodd (LHP)/Dylan Lee(LHP)

Atlanta is the most obvious match here and maybe the most likely destination if this deal gets done. Their rotation is beaten up more than a room in Magic City—Spencer Strider, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver are all missing some time—and the Braves are still contending, which means they need a real arm, not a depth add. Gray is exactly that.

The NTC nearly solves itself. Gray is from Nashville. Atlanta is close, the organization is stable, and the Braves have been in October almost every year for half a decade. If I were him, I would approve this one. Breslow knows that and should price accordingly. The fact that Gray probably says yes to Atlanta when he might say no to someone else is leverage, not a concession.

Murphy is the arm I want here. He dominated High-A in limited action before the injury, has one of the higher ceilings left in an admittedly thin Braves system, and fits the pitching-for-pitching logic cleanly. If Atlanta pushes back on Murphy, Southisene is the alternative, different profile, still a legitimate top-five piece from a system that isn’t deep enough to be holding onto anyone. The Braves farm being ranked near the bottom of the league is exactly why the salary relief matters here. Boston is making the deal easier in exchange for a sweetened pot.

If the full salary goes with Gray, Dodd gives you a back-end MLB starter with some upside who could slot into a Boston rotation that always needs arms. Lee is the more established bullpen piece, lefty, track record, knows how to get hitters out. Either is a legitimate MLB contributor, not a lottery ticket. In a year where the Sox bullpen has been a problem, adding a proven arm to that mix has real value even if it doesn’t change the rebuild timeline.

Cubs

Eats salary — Jaxon Wiggins (RHP)

Full salary — Phil Maton (RH) or Porter Hodge (RHP)

Chicago’s rotation is a mess and they know it. Two Tommy Johns, two hammies, a neck, a back, you may as well walk into the recovery ward of any ER Northside and see the venerable Cubs starting rotation. They had to trade for David Peterson just to stay afloat right now! If the Cubs are going to make a run, they need another reliable starter, and Gray is the definition of a reliable, veteran presence, experience in big games, innings-eater who won’t need to be pulled in the fourth. The fit is clean.

The double-package angle is worth noting: there’s real reporting floating around that Chicago could go after both Gray and Chapman in the same deal. Whether that’s actually on the table or just a fun idea that got written up is unclear—I get it with Chapman winning the WS in 2016 with the Cubbies—but if Breslow can work that angle, he should. Two complementary needs from one buyer is a GM’s dream negotiation.

Wiggins is the one I want from Chicago. He just cracked the top 100 and the scouting reports have gotten genuinely interesting, the stuff was always there, now the polish is catching up. The Cubs system has thinned out from where it was a couple of years ago (Shaw and Horton graduated, Caissie got traded), which makes Wiggins the clear headliner of what’s left. Pitcher for pitcher makes the most sense for both sides.

Full salary to Chicago means pushing for Maton or Hodge. Maton is a power arm with swing-and-miss stuff who would fit well in the back of a Boston bullpen that needs exactly that. Hodge is the younger option with more upside but less certainty. Either gives the Sox a real MLB reliever back, which is a reasonable ask when you’re handing over a $21 million arm and not asking for a cent back.

Brewers

Eats salary — Jett Williams (SS/CF)/Bishop Letson (RHP)

Full salary — Aaron Ashby (LHP)/Abner Uribe (RHP)

Milwaukee is the most interesting team in this conversation that isn’t getting talked about enough. The Brewers have the best farm system in baseball, by most accounts the best in years, and they’re contending, which means they need what Gray provides. They also develop pitching better than almost anyone in the sport. A guy like Gray going to Milwaukee under their coaching staff could buy him another productive season-plus.

The Brewers tend not to overpay at the deadline—it’s an organizational strength of theirs, which means Breslow has to go in knowing his floor. But their system is deep enough that they can give up a real piece without gutting themselves, and that’s exactly the kind of trade partner you want.

Williams is the intriguing prospect here. Traded to the Brewers from the Mets in the Freddy Peralta trade, his ranking has slipped slightly but the tools are still there and Milwaukee’s development track record means the ceiling hasn’t closed. Letson is more of a pure pitcher profile with a legitimate shot to move fast. Either way, the Brewers have the depth to make this hurt a little, and when the top farm system in baseball is making a move hurt, that’s a good outcome for the Sox. I’ll also say this: I really want Shane Drohan back. Boston drafted him, developed him, and then let him walk. If there’s any version of this deal where Drohan is part of the return, I’m listening.

Ashby is the name on the full-salary track. Lefty, swing-and-miss, already knows how to pitch at the big league level. He’s exactly what the Sox bullpen needs and the Brewers have the depth to absorb losing him. Uribe is the higher-upside option: the stuff plays in high leverage and if he figures out the command piece, he becomes someone. Either way, Milwaukee has the bullpen to send a real piece back without hurting their October chances.

White Sox

Eats salary — Hagen Smith (LHP)/Tanner McDougal (LHP)

Full salary — Sean Newcomb (LHP)/Grant Taylor (RHP)

Here’s the one nobody is writing about. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s most historically futile franchises for the better part of a decade. Multiple 100-loss seasons. A rebuild that took forever and delivered mixed results. Guaranteed Rate Field on a Tuesday. None of that sounds like a Gray destination.

Except they’re leading the AL Central right now.

That changes everything about this conversation. Chicago isn’t calling Boston because they’re stockpiling assets for three years from now. They’re calling because they have a pennant race on their hands for the first time in years, a market that has been starved for relevance, and a front office that knows exactly how rare and fragile first place feels when you’ve spent most of your recent history losing 95 games. A team in that position does not let a shot at Sonny Gray pass them by.

The NTC is the real question here. Gray has to approve the destination, and Chicago’s recent history is not exactly a draw. But if the White Sox are still in first at the deadline, that’s a different conversation than it would have been in April. Pitchers want to pitch in October. Gray says he’s open to a conversation. A first-place team with a real need is the kind of conversation that moves the needle on a waiver.

The farm depth is real too. All those top draft picks from the losing years are still in the system. Smith is already in the top 100 and has the profile of a back-of-rotation starter with real MLB durability. McDougal is the longer-range bet, younger, rawer, higher ceiling if the stuff develops. The Sox adding another lefty arm to the system is never a bad thing given how they develop pitching.

The full-salary version of this deal is the one I find most interesting. Boston could have a funny reunion on their hands. Newcomb returning to the organization would be interesting, and he’s been more effective in this stint than his previous run in Boston that the Sox would have something to work with. Taylor is the option if Newcomb isn’t available, left-handed, serviceable, fills a need in a pen that has needed help all year.

Giants

Eats salary — Gavin Kilen (SS/2B)

Full salary — JT Brubaker (RHP)/Sam Hentges (LHP)

San Francisco is the most interesting team on this list and probably the most overlooked one. Tony Vitello took over as manager this past offseason, coming straight from Tennessee where he built one of the better college programs in the country. He doesn’t have the personal history with Gray that Bob Melvin did, so the NTC approval is less certain here than it might have been a year ago. Oracle Park is a great place to pitch, San Francisco is a good market, and the Giants are a respectable organization—Gray could do a lot worse. But this one is a harder sell than Atlanta, and Breslow should know that going in.

What makes San Francisco interesting is Gavin Kilen.

Kilen was a Red Sox draft pick. Boston selected him, he went back to college (Louisville first, then transferred to Tennessee), and now he’s a top-five piece in the Giants system. The Tennessee connection is the thread that makes this section worth writing: Vitello coached Kilen with the Vols before taking the Giants job. So you have a manager who knows this prospect intimately, which cuts both ways — Vitello may be the last person who wants to trade him, or he may be exactly the person who knows what Kilen is and isn’t at the MLB level. Either way, Breslow has leverage in asking, because the Giants need rotation help and the Sox hold the asset. He’s the name I want from San Francisco if Boston is putting money in. Jacob Bresnahan and Blade Tidwell are also in the top-five conversation if Kilen isn’t available, Bresnahan is a sneaky-good lefty who keeps getting better, Tidwell has the stuff to move fast.

Brubaker is the headliner on the full-salary track, a legitimate MLB arm who gives the Sox a real contributor and not a project. Hentges is the alternative, left-handed and serviceable, fills a pen need. Carson Whisenhunt is worth a mention too: still a top-30 Giants prospect but he’s been down in Triple-A and could be framed as MLB-ready depth, which makes him an interesting piece that straddles both tracks.

With the tsuris Buster Posey has put himself through this season alone in the Bay Area, I could see Breslow actually end up on the right side of a deal between these former players here. We’ll give Devers to Posey, even with the drama there of late.

Atlanta is the deal that should get done and probably will. Gray approves it, the Braves need it, and the NTC leverage means Breslow can squeeze them. Cubs are the second call because of the double-package angle and the Wiggins possibility. Brewers are the sleeper with the best farm in the sport.

The Giants are the wildcard. The NTC approval is probably the easiest of any team on this list, and the Kilen homecoming angle is the best narrative piece in this whole conversation. The White Sox are the sleeper. Nobody is putting Chicago in this conversation right now, and that’s exactly why Breslow should. A franchise that’s been irrelevant for years just found itself in first place and they know the window could slam shut by September. That’s panic-buy energy, and panic-buy energy gets you Smith or McDougal. Make all five teams think the other four are ahead of them. Then close the right deal.

The salary decision is the only open question. If Breslow is building toward the deadline as a genuine rebuild, eat the salary, get the prospect, add to the system. If he thinks this team has a window to compete sooner than the standings suggest, take the MLB piece and plug the bullpen. Both are defensible. Just know what you’re doing before you pick up the phone.