ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 01: Ray Kerr #62 of the Atlanta Braves acknowledges the crowd while walking to the dugout against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning in game three of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on October 01, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning everyone, and happy Friday!
The Wild Card round is over as we head into Division Series weekend. Let’s get you caught up on all of that and more.
MLB Postseason Scores…
Former Mariners farmhand Ray Kerr turned himself into a household name with a solid outing for the Braves in their 6-2, series-clinching win over the Phillies.
In Mariners news…
Kate Preusser spoke to several Mariners players to get their insights on what lessons were learned from this disappointing season.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon is set to undergo flexor surgery, which will likely cost him the entire 2027 season. Even at age 35, he intends to complete the rehab process and return to the sport.
Willson Contreras joined Sonny Gray in piling on Red Sox management in the aftermath of the team’s sweep at the hands of the Yankees.
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN spoke to baseball insiders to get predictions on where big fish free agent Tarik Skubal is likely to sign this winter.
It’s not just a Mariners problem — Davy Andrews at Fangraphs wrote about how the Orioles’ failure to manage and communicate about injuries cost the team wins this year.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 01: The Atlanta Braves pose for a photo after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in game three of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on October 01, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With Major League Baseball’s current postseason format, there’s always a chance that the Thursday of Wild Card Series Week is a universal offday. The sample is only so large, but the best-of-three format has not produced many series that have gone the distance — such as it were, as three is hardly much of a distance. Of the 28 Wild Card Series to be played since it was first introduced in 2020 (initially as part of the expanded COVID playoff field and codified in 2022 after one last one-game playoff in 2021), only eight have seen a Game 3 — 28.6 percent.
Indeed, three of the four Wild Card Series were already in the books by the time the sun rose yesterday. We know the Yankees will face the Rays, the Guardians will face the White Sox, and the Brewers will face the Padres. But one remained, and thank the maker for it! October days without any playoff baseball whatsoever are sad days, especially when there’s no personal investment in a short series. We’re already locked into one today, as the Division Series doesn’t begin until tomorrow. But the Phillies’ late rally in Game 2 on Wednesday at Truist Park helped force extras and then a 10th-inning victory to force a Game 3 last night.
Atlanta Braves 6, Philadelphia Phillies 2 (Atlantawins 2-1)
As far as pitching matchups go, this certainly was one. It wasn’t even as outright insulting as the Astros/White Sox “double opener” one, just… OK we’ll just say it: Aaron Nola vs. Ray Kerr. Yeah.
Nola is of course well known for long career in Philly, but hasn’t been his prime form for some time now and was most recently on the mound on two days’ rest to start the Phils’ doomed penultimate game of the season. As for Kerr, I’m literally married to a Braves fan and I have not heard of this gentleman. He’s mostly been a reliever, had Tommy John surgery in 2024, returned to the big-league level this past August, and he’s made just four appearances since Labor Day. But Atlanta manager Walt Weiss gave him a shot to at least cover the start of this do-or-die game, and he was excellent.
Kerr chose Game 3 of NL Wild Card Series to tie his longest outing of the season, recording 10 outs and allowing just one hit.
It was all a terrific beginning to the game for the Braves, desperate to shake off the awful late loss in Game 2. They got on the board quickly against Nola, who issued one-out walks in the first to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson to bring Michael Harris II to the plate. On a 2-0 pitch, Harris took out his driver and golfed a pitch out for a three-run homer to right:
The ball was literally only a foot and change off the ground, but Harris blasted it anyway.
And honestly… that was the ballgame! The Phillies never scored more than a couple runs, so Harris’ homer held up. It didn’t help them that when Zack Wheeler entered in relief—several wondered if it would’ve made more sense to just start him on three days’ rest for the first time in his career—he fell victim to the long ball as well, with Ozzie Albies smacking a two-run shot to make it 5-0 in the fourth.
In a bit of a curious managerial decision, Braves ace Chris Sale came out of the bullpen to record the final fours in a four-run ballgame. It was a cool moment in theory for him to strike out Bryce Harper and then finish the job in the ninth, but it’ll be interesting to see how this affects their pitching plans in the Division Series, when they’ll have to contend with the mighty Dodgers, too.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 12: Brice Turang #2 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws to first base after forcing out Jackson Merrill #3 of the San Diego Padres at second base to complete a double play during the fourth inning at Petco Park on August 12, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The 2026 MLB Postseason continues after four teams were eliminated in the Wild Card Series this week, leaving us with eight teams vying for the World Series. Beginning Saturday, the next round of the postseason, the Division Series, will begin, as the Brewers host the Padres for the first two games in a best-of-five series.
AL Division Series: (1) Tampa Bay Rays vs. (4) New York Yankees
In the American League, both Division Series matchups feature intradivisional matchups. This one, featuring the AL East winner and runner-up, has the two teams who finished with the best records in the AL. The Rays, who finished 98-64, beat the Yankees by 4.5 games, with an MLB-best 55-26 record at home. Tampa had a pretty balanced attack this year, though they finished way better than their run differential would suggest — at +86 runs (sixth best in MLB), they had an expected win-loss of 90-72. The Yankees, meanwhile, are coming off a pair of rompings against their rival Red Sox, winning 9-0 and 9-2 at Yankee Stadium in the AL Wild Card Series. They finished with the fourth-best run differential in baseball, primarily due to their pitching staff, which finished atop the league in several categories.
Schedule
Game 1 @ Tampa Bay: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 5:30 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
Game 2 @ Tampa Bay: Monday, Oct. 5 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
Game 3 @ New York: Wednesday, Oct. 7 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
Game 4* @ New York: Thursday, Oct. 8 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
Game 5* @ Tampa Bay: Saturday, Oct. 10 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
*if necessary
Team Rankings
Rays:
Offense: .258/.326/.402 (.728 OPS ranks eighth); 169 HRs (22nd); 736 runs (12th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
Pitching: 3.70 team ERA (seventh); 3.51 starter ERA (third); 3.99 reliever ERA (14th); 1,322 Ks (19th)
Yankees:
Offense: .235/.311/.409 (.720 OPS ranks tied for 11th); 223 HRs (second); 739 runs (tied for ninth); 153 SBs (sixth)
Pitching: 3.24 team ERA (first); 3.30 starter ERA (first); 3.15 reliever ERA (second); 1,450 Ks (tied for sixth)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
Game 2: TBD (TB) vs. RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY)
Game 3: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
Game 4: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
Game 5: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
Prediction
The Yankees looked like a different monster against Boston, even without Aaron Judge. But New York already had to use Cam Schlittler and Max Fried, meaning neither of them will be able to pitch two games in this series (unless Schlittler goes on short rest twice). With that in mind, I think this is about as evenly matched as possible, but the Rays’ home-field advantage makes me give them a slight edge. Rays in five.
AL Division Series: (2) Cleveland Guardians vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
The other intradivisional matchup on this side of the bracket, the Guardians got the No. 2 seed in the AL despite finishing just 85-77 — that wouldn’t have even been good enough to make the playoffs if they were in the NL. The White Sox, who finished right behind them at 84-78 after leading the AL Central for a good chunk of the year, are coming off a two-game sweep of the Astros in the AL Wild Card Series. Neither one of these teams are super flashy, but the Guardians have a good, not great pitching staff and the White Sox have a good, not great offense. We’ll see which one prevails.
Pitching: 3.77 team ERA (eighth); 3.93 starter ERA (ninth); 3.54 reliever ERA (sixth); 1,530 Ks (third)
White Sox:
Offense: .236/.320/.406 (.726 OPS ranks ninth); 211 HRs (fifth); 776 runs (fifth); 93 SBs (tied for 18th)
Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (15th); 4.60 starter ERA (26th); 3.70 reliever ERA (eighth); 1,337 Ks (tied for 16th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: LHP Parker Messick (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
Game 2: RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
Game 3: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
Game 4: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
Game 5: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
Prediction
As I said above, neither of these teams is flashy, and both squads are solid and one side of the ball and not so solid on the other. I think Cleveland’s combo of Parker Messick and Gavin Williams atop the rotation can get things done, though, as Cleveland wins in four.
NL Division Series: (1) Milwaukee Brewers vs. (4) San Diego Padres
I won’t say too much here just because Paul already took his time to write a lengthy preview for this series. All I’ll add is that I think the home-field advantage will come into play in a big way here — both of these fanbases are hungry for their first World Series title and based on how loud the fans in San Diego were when they played the Cubs this week, I’d expect all five games to be rowdy. This should be a fun one to watch.
Offense: .258/.341/.403 (.744 OPS ranks tied for third); 154 HRs (tied for 28th); 832 runs (second); 162 SBs (fifth)
Pitching: 3.51 team ERA (second); 3.61 starter ERA (fifth); 3.40 reliever ERA (third); 1,544 Ks (second)
Padres:
Offense: .244/.319/.398 (.717 OPS ranks 18th); 183 HRs (tied for 14th); 722 runs (15th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
Pitching: 3.99 team ERA (10th); 4.42 starter ERA (21st); 3.53 reliever ERA (fifth); 1,315 Ks (20th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
Game 2: RHP Logan Henderson (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
Game 3: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
Game 4: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
Game 5: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
Prediction
The Brewers have about as balanced of a team as you could ask for, whether out of the bullpen, offensively, or simply with Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson as a great 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Give me Brewers in four.
NL Division Series: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (3) Atlanta Braves
The winners of the NL West and NL East will face off, as the Braves escaped a matchup with the Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series, the only set to go the full three games. As has been the norm for over a decade, the Dodgers are good at everything they do, ranking in the top five in offense and pitching. The one thing they don’t have going for them is that they aren’t getting any younger — outside of 25-year-old Andy Pages in center and 29-year-old Kyle Tucker in right, all of their team leaders are in their 30s. That group includes Shohei Ohtani (32), Will Smith (31), Mookie Betts (34 next week), Freddie Freeman (37), Max Muncy (36), and Teoscar Hernández (34 later this month), among several others. The pitching staff is one of the deepest in baseball, but again, they aren’t all that young, and injuries are always a key consideration. For the Braves, they also have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, with one of the top starting pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale, who we’ll see at least once in this series. They also have a solid bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez. While their offense ranks right around the middle of the pack, slightly above league average, they still have several big names in Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Drake Baldwin, and Michael Harris II.
Schedule
Game 1 @ Los Angeles: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 3:00 p.m. (FOX & FOX One)
Game 2 @ Los Angeles: Sunday, Oct. 4 @ 7:00 p.m. (FS1)
Game 5* @ Los Angeles: Friday, Oct. 9 @ 7:00 p.m. (FOX & FOX One)
*if necessary
Team Rankings
Dodgers:
Offense: .257/.338/.424 (.762 OPS ranks second); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 801 runs (fourth); 72 SBs (28th)
Pitching: 3.55 team ERA (fourth); 3.43 starter ERA (second); 3.74 reliever ERA (ninth); 1,521 Ks (fourth)
Braves:
Offense: .246/.309/.409 (.718 OPS ranks tied for 16th); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 742 runs (eighth); 83 SBs (tied for 23rd)
Pitching: 3.63 team ERA (fifth); 3.76 starter ERA (sixth); 3.44 reliever ERA (fourth); 1,350 Ks (15th)
Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
Game 2: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
Game 3: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
Game 4: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
Game 5: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
Prediction
I feel like this postseason is the most vulnerable Los Angeles has been in several years. After completing back-to-back title runs in 2024 and 2025, I get the feeling that the window is at least starting to close. I think the Braves will make this closer than most would believe, but the Dodgers will prevail. Dodgers in five.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 27: A general view of the main gate of Oracle Park before the season finale between the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 27, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Numbers are helpful. Numbers make things plain when words muddy things up.
What follows are some numbers, basic numbers, that I found before putting some words next to them. They don’t tell the whole story of the 2026 San Francisco Giants — but who wants that? No thanks. Measurable data in small, manageable punches, please.
0 — Zero, it’s a number. Kind of. A number is a measurable value, and zero is measurable as an absence of value (see, numbers aren’t confusing at all). It’s a number in the same way that nobody is a presence. “Nobody is attacking me! Nobody is attacking me!” Polyphemus screamed from his cave after Odysseus blinded him, and all the other giant cyclopses who rushed to his aid at the sound of his shrieking, turned away grumbling. The ravings of a lunatic. Many of us, at our most dramatic and most sensitive, probably felt like Polyphemus in the last couple weeks of the season, watching a team that was notable in what it lacked. Absence as a presence — that’s the line-up in a nutshell. A bunch of nobodies. It was not the plan.
Zero players who took the field on Opening Day for the 2026 Giants way back on March 25th took the field as a Giant when the season concluded on September 27th.
Four were traded – Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian to the Phillies, Patrick Bailey to the Guardians, Heliot Ramos to the Yankees. Five players — Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt, Harrison Bader, Rafael Devers, and Keaton Winn — landed on the 60-day IL. Two — Logan Webb and JT Brubaker — are on the 15-day IL. Two more — Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames — are on the 10-day IL.
1 — One sweep. One real one. A real one is at least three games. A series sweep really only matters because it is more than two games. One win could be a fluke. Two in a row is like a broken clock being right twice a day. But three, and against the same team, now that’s something with substance.
There were 52 series (counting the split-up Braves as one) on the 2026 calendar. The Giants swept the 45th one they played in. Fans had to wait until the second week in September, with the Cardinals in town, to bust the brooms out. They flipped the script on us too with a 6-run comeback in the 8th.
2 — Two players. Christian Koss and Landen Roupp. Woke king Koss and Remember the Covenant! Roupp — diametrically opposed on the political spectrum, and yet tied together to the mast. There on the 26-man roster on March 25th when the boat left port, and (though Koss only had 14 AB before July 1st and was sent to Sacramento for most of May and June) there on September 27th when it washed ashore in pieces. The only survivors of this shipwreck season.
It’s fitting then that Koss was the last player to represent the Giants on a baseball field in 2026. He delivered the final joyful moment, the final disappointment when that joyful moment had the rug pulled out from under it, and the final out of the year.
3 — Three Giants starting pitchers suffered a torn UCL in their throwing arm during the regular season. The injuries actually all came within a month-and-a-half., the pitchers dominoing off the mound and onto the 60-day IL. Trevor McDonald went down in August, Carson Whisenhunt in the middle of September, Blade Tidwell in the last week of the season. Harken back to the halcyon days of Spring Training, when Hayden Birdsong heard the dreaded “pop,” and the writing was on the wall. Three became four. Four Tommy John surgeries levied on a whole generation of Giants’ pitching talent. All 25 year old rotation arms slowly being built up to handle a full season’s workload.
The “rising wave” of pitching depth never broke. Now 2027 will be missed, and it’s hard not to feel like when they return, they’ll be starting over. A hopeful normalcy, if it ever arrives, for these pitchers won’t be until 2029? Maybe? And who does the front office plan to put in their place? Will they still be stubborn about handing out long-term, six-figure contracts to free agent starters? Will the accelerated rise of Yunior Marte, Matt Wilkinson, and Cesar Perdomo, (another) 3 representatives dredged from the depths of the farm system to handle the final chunk of innings at season’s end, represent a new wave? The trio of replacements held their own to a certain extent — but expectations were low. Hanging sliders, demolished by Major League hitters were glossed over, elevated walk rates forgiven, and they were rarely pushed to pitch through the 5th. Though “Tugboat” is a Major League nickname, the jury is still out on the rest of him.
4 — Four wins in a row. The Giants didn’t do it. First time in franchise history its happened — rather, it hasn’t happened.
They won three in a row seven different times. They were an out from sealing a fourth W in Chicago on June 6th when future-MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong launched one of his MLB-leading 45 home runs off Keaton Winn. They nearly did it against Seattle in mid-July, but a Logan Webb cruise capsized after allowing a game-tying 3-run shot in the 7th. The Giants again lost in 10 innings.
Maybe that Cubs game was the moment we all should’ve recognized it wasn’t going to happen. It being anything good, or restorative, or sustained. Early June was plenty of time for reality to set in, but we (some of us? Just me?) were still counting on that one-in-a-half-century hot streak to pick the Giants up and lift them out of the funk. It happened to the Red Sox instead, which makes sense because the Red Sox had a bullpen.
5 — Five walk-off wins. On the other side of the coin is the dozen times the Giants were walked off, but that’s another number further on in this doom count. Focus on the present. Every game has a story. Over a long baseball season, it’s important to find excuses to celebrate. Those silly, over-the-top, on-field fandangos — as contrived as they can be at times — serve a purpose.
The 2026 Giants did deliver a walk-off for the ages. No fabricated excuse needed to go nuts after Bryce Eldridge’s “ultimate grand slam” capped off an 8-run comeback against the Nationals. Moments before Eldridge delivered his first (of hopefully many) highlight reel clips, Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow threw another on top of the career pile with the quickly infamous “drop trou and hog out” exchange.
Kuip: "It may be more than 'tarps off' if Eldridge knocks one out of here."
Kruk: "I'm gonna hold you to it. Time to drop trou, hog out."
The walk-off homer, aired-out to right, plopped down atop the Willie Mays wall, and everyone went ballistic. A routine out in many parks, but no one cared. It was ridiculous and comedic and unexpected and so needed, for the fans, for the players. A moment of pure, amnesiac bliss. Nothing before mattered. Tomorrow felt so far away. The Giants had won the game when they were expected to lose it. For once, they defied expectations rather than fell short of them.
Oct 1, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves players celebrate in the clubhouse after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in game three of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
October 17, 1996 feels like forever ago, especially to someone like me, who was born in 1990.
“Macarena” was the No. 1 song, while “Independence Day” was the No. 1 movie.
Atlanta was just months removed from hosting the Olympics.
Walt Weiss still had four years left in his major league career, while Matt Olson was two years old and Ronald Acuña Jr. was still over a year away from being born.
That was the last time the Atlanta Braves won a winner-take-all postseason game.
Until Thursday. The Braves exorcised three decades worth of demons, and some particularly pesky recent ones, with their 6-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies in the decisive third game of their NL Wild Card series, snapping the franchise’s six-game losing streak in elimination games.
Fittingly for a night of such catharsis, the Braves left little doubt.
From the moment Michael Harris II delivered a first-inning haymaker in the form of his three-run homer off Aaron Nola, the game never really felt like the Braves were teetering on the precipice of danger.
Sure, there may have been that “here comes the five-run inning for the Phillies” thought that you couldn’t quite get out of your head, but the reality of how it played out on the field was it never felt like that was coming.
After the early blow, the Braves kept the Phillies at arm’s length. The rare Philadelphia hits were never further complicated by additional issues. The Phillies scored their only two runs on an RBI groundout and a sacrifice fly, finishing 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.
It certainly didn’t hurt the feeling of comfort that the Braves kept adding on. Ozzie Albies’ fourth-inning two-run shot made it 5-0. And after Philadelphia got on the board in the sixth, Matt Olson responded with Atlanta’s third homer of the game.
Not long after that, Chris Sale, the baseball robot that he is — his own words he said this week — took care of the final four outs in typically dominant fashion.
“I can’t say enough about this group,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said postgame. “I’ve been saying it, repeating myself, but I said it on Day 1 of Spring Training that it was going to take more than our talent to get to where we wanted to go. We had to have the right mentality. We had to come together. We had to play for each other, all those things that you can’t quantify.
“They’re game changers, and I always felt all along — and I was saying at the end of Spring Training— I felt like we had the right guys on the bus, man.”
The way in which Thursday’s game played out was cathartic enough. That it happened against the Phillies made it a potentially spiritual experience for Braves Country.
The team that ruined Atlanta’s strong 2022 and 2023 seasons. The team that had been the thorn in the Braves’ side, both in the NL East and in the postseason. The team that seemed dead late in Wednesday’s game before rallying and bringing in what was widely believed to be a better pitching situation entering Game 3
The Braves’ strong performance made sure none of that remotely mattered or was a lingering thought in peoples’ heads this time.
”Definitely feels amazing to win against the Phillies,” Albies admitted.
Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski said pregame that the team was loose and there was no tension in the air from Wednesday’s blown chance at a sweep.
How the game played out proved they were right.
“I think in baseball you can’t do anything but try to stay loose. If you put more pressure on yourself, it’s just going to eat you up,” Harris said. “I felt like in the clubhouse today we talked more about fantasy football than baseball. It kept us ready. Once we had our meeting, we kind of locked in and knew what we wanted to do when we came out.”
And with a few monkeys firmly removed from the team’s collective back, the “house money” portion of the Braves’ postseason begins. Beating the Dodgers in the NLDS would be a bonus, but they certainly aren’t a trendy pick to knock off the two-time defending champs.
That being said, if the Braves are able to channel the same focus and clutch moments they delivered in this series finale, maybe they can drag the Dodgers into a contested series.
After all, they did beat them five out of six times in the regular season.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 29: Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 and Xander Bogaerts #2 of the San Diego Padres celebrate after the 8-0 victory against the Chicago Cubs in game one of the National League Wild Card Series at Petco Park on September 29, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres rode their momentum from a strong finish in the regular season to a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card Series at Petco Park. The two teams met a season ago and engaged in a three-game series that saw the Padres score just five runs. San Diego changed that this season and scored 12 runs in two games, which included home runs from Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Gavin Sheets.
Even more impressive than the Padres offense was their pitching. Michael King set the tone in Game 1 of the series and pitched seven innings of shutout baseball with one hit allowed. That hit was an infield hit in the top of the seventh inning that Machado kept from getting to the outfield grass, but he lost the ball on the transfer from his glove to his throwing hand and was unable to make a throw to first base to keep a no-hitter intact. Nick Pivetta followed with a start in Game 2 that got him into the fourth inning, but then the game was turned over to the San Diego bullpen. The function of the team that was the most lauded throughout the season showed once again it was worthy of praise with big arms Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller delivering a win.
The Padres head to Milwaukee to take on the top seeded Brewers and Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski. If San Diego can get similar performances from their offense and in particular their stars, and get solid contributions from the likes of Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler the Padres could have a chance to punch their ticket to the National League Championship Series.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 09: Former New York Knicks player Dick Barnett waves to the crowd during the first half between the Milwaukee Bucks and the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on January 09, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Two noteworthy Knicks birthdays today!
Dr. Dick Barnett was born October 2, 1936, in Gary, Indiana. Barnett spent eight seasons with New York, became an All-Star in 1968, and played for both the 1970 and 1973 championship teams. His number 12 hangs in the Garden rafters. He died last year at 88.
Barnett had one of the most unforgettable shots in basketball history. Starting in college (when nicknamed “Dick the Skull”), he became known for contorting his body into a question mark while shooting his jumper, kicking his legs back and telling defenders, “Too late–fall back, baby!” Barnett went on to turn his eccentric shot into more than 15,000 NBA points.
A beloved teammate of Walt Frazier, Barnett was featured in the documentary film, The Dream Whisperer, about his time playing at Tennessee State University for the Tigers. During segregation, the all-Black Tigers won three straight national championships. Captain Barnett tirelessly fought for their recognition, which culminated in their 2019 induction into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame. Watch the doc here, you’ll dig it.
After hanging up his sneakers, Barnett earned an MBA from New York University and then a PhD in education from Fordham University. He taught Sports Management at St. John’s University for four years.
And (feeling like Garrison Keillor here) Tyson Chandler was born today in 1982, in Hanford, California. Chandler came to New York immediately after anchoring Dallas’ 2011 championship defense and became the 2011-12 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, the only Knick ever to take the honor.
Drafted second in 2001, the seven-foot Chandler played for five seasons in Chicago before bouncing from NOLA to Charlotte to Dallas and then the Knicks. After three seasons at MSG, he was sent back to Dallas, then Phoenix, and finished out his 19-year career with the Lakers and Rockets.
Chandler joined the Knicks in December 2011 via a sign-and-trade between multiple teams, which also sent traded Ronny Turiaf, cash, and a 2013 2nd-round draft pick to the Wizards. While there was no denying his talent, Chandler appeared on the injured list often during his tenure here, with a hamstring strain, playoff flu and an upper respiratory infection, a bulging cervical disc (plus related neck spasms and weight loss from illness), and a fractured right fibula.
In June 2014, he and Raymond Felton were traded to the Mavs for José Calderón, Samuel Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Shane Larkin, a 2014 2nd-round draft pick (Thanasis Antetokounmpo was later selected), and a 2014 2nd-round draft pick (Cleanthony Early was later selected). (h/t basketball-reference.com)
Chandler concluded his time in New York with averages of 10.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks across 183 games. His career highlights, also from Wikipedia:
NBA champion (2011)
NBA All-Star (2013)
All-NBA Third Team (2012)
NBA Defensive Player of the Year (2012)
NBA All-Defensive First Team (2013)
2× NBA All-Defensive Second Team (2011, 2012)
First-team Parade All-American (2001)
Second-team Parade All-American (2000)
McDonald’s All-American (2001)
2× California Mr. Basketball (2000, 2001)
Quite a nice pairing: two Knicks born 46 years apart, one remembered for his offense, the other for defense. Closing my Writer’s Almanac loop, your poem for the day is a personal favorite, “The Bear,” by Galway Kinnell.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 15: Jacob Latz #67 of the Texas Rangers reacts following the team's win over the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Field on September 15, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, LSB.
Evan Grant plays the blame game and discusses how much Ray Davis deserves for the Rangers’ failed season.
Editor’s note: Sheng Peng is a regular contributor to NBC Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.
The Sharks played the way the Florida Panthers wanted to play; they played the way that they wanted to play, and then they beat the Stanley Cup contenders.
Physically, they stood up to the big, bad Panthers, be it Will Smith hanging tough with Eetu Luostarinen in the corners to help set up Mason Marchment’s goal, Darnell Nurse cross-checking Matthew Tkachuk, Jacob Trouba getting in a fight for Macklin Celebrini or Collin Graf getting in a fight for Ivar Stenberg.
Nurse got a penalty, but there were plenty of examples on Thursday of the ex-Edmonton Oilers defenseman imposing his will on the Panthers, reminiscent of their 2024 and 2025 Stanley Cup Final matchups.
Coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons -- with disappointing being an understatement when describing what the 2026 campaign was -- the Mets enter this offseason looking to get back on track.
The initial goal, which has been the same since Steve Cohentook over as owner, is to get back to the playoffs. The ultimate goal is to become a team that is in the postseason perennially.
With that in mind, the expectation is that David Stearns and the front office will be selectively aggressive this winter via free agency while attempting to fix the trouble spots that helped do the Mets in the last two years.
The trade market could also be fertile ground for New York, with their farm system recently fortified following their trade deadline sell-off.
As the offseason takes shape, it will be colored by New York's existing payroll commitments for 2027 and how the books are shaping up in the years to come.
It could also be influenced by the looming lockout that is set to begin on Dec. 1, and the potential that the new CBA could usher in harsher penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax thresholds.
Here's how the payroll looks for next season and beyond...
Jul 7, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) reacts with shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) after making a catch to end the top of the fourth inning at Citi Field. / Vincent Carchietta - Imagn Images
SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2027
The Mets enter the offseason with roughly $255 million committed for 2027, via Cot's Contracts, which is a number that includes the $18.5 million estimated for player benefits, the money owed to zero-to-three players in both the majors and minors who are under team control, and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.
The above figure will go up with arbitration raises owed to 10 players, including Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and Dedniel Núñez. But a handful of the arbitration-eligible group could possibly be non-tendered or traded, which would lower the total amount owed.
Of note: The $255 million total before arbitration raises includes the $42 million salary that will be owed to Bo Bichette if he opts in to the second year of his three-year contract.
For reference, the Mets ended the 2026 season with a 40-man CBT payroll of $359.48 million.
Now off the books is the $17 million owed to Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal is up.
Additionally, because the Mets traded or waived their notable pending free agents (Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only possible pending free agent on the active roster (aside from Montas) is Bichette.
The Mets are now clear of the contracts for Raley ($2 million), Peralta ($8 million), Peterson ($8.1 million), Minter ($11 million), Holmes ($12.6 million), and Robert ($20 million) that were on their books at the beginning of the season.
WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?
The Mets have 10 arbitration-eligible players.
New York Mets third baseman Brett Baty (7) reacts as he runs the bases after hitting a grand slam home run against the Texas Rangers during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field. / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
Those players (with their 2026 Mets salary in parentheses) are:
Even if the Mets tender contracts to all of the above players, their payroll would not go up dramatically -- perhaps the total arbitration figure would be around $18 million.
However, it's difficult to see them tendering contracts to Morel or Pache, and the writing seems to be on the wall when it comes to Vientos having perhaps played his last game for New York. So for the purposes of this exercise, let's put the arbitration number at $14 million.
After taking the arbitration money into account, the total New York could be on the hook for before making external additions is approximately $269 million.
HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?
The Mets, after arbitration raises, would likely be above the first luxury tax threshold for the 2027 season. However, because the CBA is set to expire, the first, second, third, and fourth thresholds for 2027 and beyond (and whether those exact kind of structures will still be in play) have not yet been determined.
For the 2026 season, the four thresholds were $244 million, $264 million, $284 million, and $304 million -- figures that had been increasing incrementally (around $3 million to $4 million for each threshold) on an annual basis.
Jun 26, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns speaks during a press conference before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. The club earlier today parted ways with manager Carlos Mendoza (not pictured). / Brad Penner - Imagn Images
New York has exceeded the luxury tax five seasons in a row and (barring something very unexpected) will be doing it for a sixth straight time in 2027.
But again, the tiers and penalties for exceeding them will not be known until a new CBA is agreed to, which throws a good deal of uncertainty into the offseason for every team that is ordinarily a significant spender.
Also of importance is that the Mets are set to get serious salary relief following the 2027 season, when the contracts for Sean Manaea, Jorge Polanco, and Kodai Senga end, which will free up roughly $60 million. So in theory, big spending this offseason could be offset a bit in a year when Manaea, Polanco, and Senga are off the books.
As far as this offseason, the free agent market is expected to include Tarik Skubal, Clay Holmes, Michael King, Seiya Suzuki,Adrian Morejon, and Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato, while the trade market could feature some intriguing starting pitching options (such as a few Mariners, given their relative glut of rotation options).
WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?
The Mets are in a unique position when it comes to locking up players before they reach free agency.
Because of the resources at their disposal, they can simply sign those players back once they reach free agency if they so choose. That kind of ability stands in contrast to smaller market teams like the Royals and Brewers, who have recently signed some of their core players to long-term extensions well before they were set to reach free agency -- Kansas City signed Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension after his second season, while Milwaukee inked Jackson Chourio to an eight-year contract before he even made his big league debut.
Even for the Mets, though, it could make sense to do these early extensions every now and then. That's because there is a benefit for both sides.
The player gets financial certainty years earlier than he otherwise would, with pre-arbitration seasons, arbitration seasons, and/or pending free agent seasons bought out and those years included in the extension. The team, if the deal works out as hoped, winds up paying less for those later arbitration years and the free agent years, and also gets certainty.
If the Mets were to explore that kind of deal this offseason, the two most obvious players to approach would be Carson Benge and Nolan McLean.
Jul 29, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Carson Benge (3) reacts after hitting an RBI double during the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. / Vincent Carchietta - Imagn Images
Benge is coming off an eye-opening debut season that saw him make a serious impact on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, Benge slashed .282/.346/.430 (.776 OPS, 118 OPS+) with 20 homers, 22 doubles, three homers, 86 runs scored, and 22 steals -- becoming the first Mets rookie ever to hit at least 20 homers and steal at least 20 bases.
The Yankees are going the expected route, starting Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rays on Saturday night in Tampa Bay.
Following dominant starts by Cam Schlittler and Max Fried in New York's Wild Card Series sweep of the Red Sox, Cole will look to keep things rolling for New York.
Cole last pitched on Sept. 23 against the Rays in the Bronx, when he allowed two runs on three hits while walking three and striking out eight in 5.2 innings.
The right-hander also fared well in his two other starts against Tampa this season.
On May 22, in what was his first start back after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Cole tossed 6.0 scoreless innings while allowing two hits, walking three, and striking out two.
On July 8, Cole allowed three runs in 6.1 innings while giving up three hits, walking one, and striking out six.
With Game 2 set for Monday in Tampa, the Yankees figure to turn to Cam Schlittler on five days of rest or Max Fried on regular (four days) rest.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Dean Kremer #64 of the Baltimore Orioles delivers a pitch against the Detroit Tigers during the bottom of the first inning at Comerica Park on July 28, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This past season saw the end of Dean Kremer’s time in Baltimore, as the longest surviving member of the Manny Machado trade ended his time with the Orioles with the same frustrating inconsistency that colored his entire career.
When it came to Dean Kremer’s role on the Orioles pitching staff, I always had the mindset of “if Dean Kremer is your 5th starter, you probably have a pretty good rotation.” The Orioles rotation heading into the 2026 season was so good (on paper, at least) that Kremer began the year at Triple-A Norfolk.
However, he returned from Norfolk after only two starts for the Tides. An early-season injury to Zach Efflin saw Kremer immediately return to the fifth starter role in Baltimore. The 30-year-old right-hander looked strong in his first two outings of the season; in his season debut he limited the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs over 5 innings while striking out nine. His next time out, against the Guardians, Kremer was an unlucky loser after posting a line of 6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 7 Ks.
From there, Kremer’s remaining tenure with the Orioles was largely derailed due to injury, After his start in Cleveland, he landed on the IL with a right quad strain. At first it looked like the injury would only require a short term recovery. Instead, Kremer didn’t return to the mound until June 21st and didn’t make it back to the big league roster until July 1st.
In his first start back from injury, Kremer once again looked his best self. He guided the Orioles to victory over the White Sox in Baltimore, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball while striking out four. Little did we know that that would be the last quality start of his Orioles career.
His next four outings in black and orange were largely disastrous. Over those final four games with the O’s, Kremer averaged less than 5 innings per start, pitched to a 9.47 ERA and gave up a .333 average with 7 home runs across 19 innings. His final start for Baltimore came in Detroit, where he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings as the O’s lost 14-0 to the Tigers.
Four days later, Kremer became the first of five major leaguers Mike Elias & Co. traded away at the 2026 Trade Deadline. The California native was sent from Baltimore to Minnesota, who at the time sat 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles for the final AL Wild Card spot.
At the time, the decision to trade away Kremer was viewed through a neutral lens. The O’s got back 18-year-old OF Jhomnardo Reyes, an athletic, power-first bat in the mold of a typical Mike Elias outfield prospect. Reyes immediately jumped in Baltimore’s Top 20 prospects. The decision to trade Kremer—in the moment—could also have been seen as the Orioles creating space in their rotation to acquire a level-raising starting pitcher.
Instead, Kremer became another example of the front office selling whilst tantalizingly close to playoff contention. To make matters worse, his second start for the Twinkies came against Baltimore in Target Field. That afternoon, Kremer delivered his best start of the season, tossing 7 innings while only allowing 1 run and 1 hit and punching out seven Orioles. Whether motivated by a sense of revenge or just the excitement of facing his old teammates, Kremer immediately made the Orioles look foolish for trading him.
The rest of his year in Minnesota was closer to what we’d come to expect during his 6+ seasons in Baltimore. In his final 8 starts of the season, Kremer pitched to a 4.04 ERA while allowing a .209 average against and striking out 39 in 42.1 IP. The right-hander did finish with a promising flourish, allowing only 2 runs and six hits over his final three starts. With one year left of team control before potentially entering free agency in 2028, Kremer should comfortably slot into the back half of Minnesota’s rotation next year.
Kremer never had true highlight moments with the Orioles, and therefore will not be remembered as fondly as contemporaries like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays or Anthony Santander. However, his 130 career starts are good enough for 33rd in Orioles history, while his 707.2 IP puts him just outside the Top 50 in club history. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Kremer’s 616 career strikeouts with the Orioles put him just behind Ben McDonald at 22nd in Orioles’ history.
If you can separate it from the optics of selling at the deadline when only a couple of games out of a playoff spot, the decision to move on from Kremer spoke/speaks to the improved health of the Orioles pitching depth. His 4.37 career ERA in Baltimore makes him the latest in the line of starting pitchers like Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera; professional innings eaters who every once and a while showed the ability to be something more.
Sam Harper’s first innings century and Liam Scott’s five-wicket haul were in vain as Australia A agonisingly fell one wicket short of a series-levelling victory against India A in Puducherry.
Welcome to this edition of the Vancouver Canucks “3 Standouts From The Game.” In this recurring series, The Hockey News’ Canucks team will do a deep dive into three standouts from Vancouver’s last game. This article will focus on the Canucks’ most recent 9–7 loss to the Edmonton Oilers.
Paul Cotter
Paul Cotter has been the Canucks’ best forward, offensively speaking, since the start of the 2026–27 season. Following his two-goal performance on Tuesday, Cotter scored yet another goal in Thursday’s 9–7 loss to the Oilers and also added an assist on a goal by Brock Boeser in his effort.
Cotter’s strong play earned him a promotion onto Vancouver’s second-line alongside Boeser and Liam Öhgren, with the trio playing a team-high 7:28 minutes together. Individually, Cotter also had five hits and recorded a faceoff win percentage of 64.3%.
Elias Pettersson
Is Elias Pettersson back? That’s the question everyone seems to be asking after the forward’s performance on Thursday night following his three-point, eight-hit night. The most notable part of Pettersson’s night was his slap shot on the power-play to give Vancouver their sixth goal of the game, with the play resembling a vintage shot by the forward. This was his 202nd-career goal, which gave him sole-possession of ninth all-time in Canucks history.
After Vancouver blended their lines up to start the second period, Pettersson and his wingers — Jake DeBrusk and Linus Karlsson — were given the difficult task of matching up against Connor McDavid’s line. Through a little over six minutes played together, the trio produced three scoring chances-for and surrendered one against.
Oct 1, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (40) shoots during warm up prior to a game against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
Arshdeep Bains
Dating back to training camp, Arshdeep Bains has been praised for his no-quit hustle even when not in game situations. The forward brought that same performance to Thursday night’s game alongside new linemates Marco Rossi and Jonathan Lekkerimäki, spearheading what would ultimately become a shocking consecutive four-goal output for Vancouver in both the second and third periods.
With less than a second left on the clock in the second period, Bains drove to the net to snap a rebound past Oilers goaltender Devon Levi, scoring Vancouver’s third of the game. He didn’t stop there, however, as it was his line that scored two goals for the Canucks five minutes into the third period to bring their total up to five goals on the night. An assist on the second goal made Thursday Bains’s first multi-point NHL game.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: Manger Chad Tracy of the Boston Red Sox removes Sonny Gray #54 from the game against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Baseball is a game of numbers. It’s played on the field, with balls and bats and gloves, but every action, decision, and outcome is measured by a number. Those numbers are presented to us during broadcasts, in gambling ads, and by people like me on Twitter and in pieces here on OTM. Most of the numbers we see are presented without context.
Just this week, there was plenty of chatter about how Payton Tolle has reverse splits and performs better against righties than he does against lefties. If you say that Tolle stats against righties are superior to those against lefties, you are correct. If you claim that opponents should start lefties against Tolle for that reason, citing that stat as evidence, you’d be a little bit off base.
I saw a lot of "Payton Tolle reverse splits" tonight, and while that's true, I think people are missing the details.
He had three pitches with 70% strike rates. His fastball and cutter had massive swinging strike rates. His sinker had a minuscule ICR% and a huge GB%.
In short, Tolle’s stats against lefties were worse than those against righties because he only throws to the best left-handed hitters. If he faced a lineup of nine lefties, he’d rack up strikeouts and groundball outs because of the pitches he has at his disposal. Tolle isn’t the point of this piece, though, so I digress.
Another example of this came after the final game of the season. The Red Sox bullpen got caved in by the Yankees, and the season ended in embarrassing fashion. During the postmortem, Sonny Gray, who was pulled after just 4.2 innings and 70 pitches, expressed his displeasure at not being allowed to continue. He said that he’s the best pitcher in the American League at facing a lineup for a third time.
His numbers facing hitters for a third time are in fact excellent: .515 OPS against, 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and a .180 batting average in 162 plate appearances across 28 games this season. Despite this, Gray wasn’t allowed to see Cody Bellinger for a third time; Erik Miller came in and gave up a run, and the game snowballed from there, ending the Red Sox season.
If you read my work, you know I like numbers. I do my best to provide context and try to blend the stats with on-field applications, but I admit that I tend to believe what the numbers say even if they go against conventional wisdom. Those choices that go against conventional wisdom have come to be known as “analytics”. If people don’t agree with something, they blame “analytics” without knowing what information was actually used in that decision.
In this case, the consensus was that Gray was removed because “analytics” say that seeing a lineup for the third time is a disadvantage. The numbers presented above disagree with that sentiment, but the Boston Red Sox, who pay people to research these types of things, aren’t making decisions based on slash lines in 150 plate appearance samples. Still, the decision was, at least in some part, motivated by statistics.
This piece is not in defense of Chad Tracy, Craig Breslow, or anyone else who might have had a hand in the decision-making process or game planning. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that I staunchly disagree with the decision. I didn’t have a suite of statistics at my disposal at the time, but I thought Gray had a better chance of getting the out than Miller. I actually messaged the rest of the OTM staff and said: “So this is insane, right?” Before the game, I published a piece on how the Red Sox needed Sonny Gray to go deep into the game, for the sake of both Game 2 and a potential Game 3. Even after looking at the numbers that I’ll share momentarily, I disagree with the decision, although that’s easy to do in hindsight.
Instead of supporting or tearing down the decision, what I’m trying to do here is reverse-engineer the thought process and provide some context, because despite what sports talk radio or faceless Twitter accounts might tell you, it is much more nuanced than “third time through the order bad”. Let’s do it.
I’ll set the scene. It’s the fifth inning with the Yankees leading, 1-0. Trent Grisham has reached on a single to start the inning, and swapped places on the bases with Austin Wells, who grounded out to second base but beat the throw from Trevor Story to break up the double play. Ryan McMahon struck out on a good sweeper, and Ben Rice singled on a hard ground ball through the infield to move Wells up to third base. After 70 pitches and one earned run, Gray walked off the mound.
The first thing I’ll look at is Bellinger’s other at-bats against Gray. In his first trip to the plate, he roped a first-pitch sinker to Nick Sogard, who made a great pick to get the out. His second time up, he grounded out again, this time after fouling off three two-strike pitches and spitting on a good sweeper to his back foot. If you’re judging based on those two matchups alone, I could understand the decision to not give Bellinger a third crack at Gray. Bellinger looked like he was seeing the ball well.
Next, let’s look at how Gray approached the lineup to that point.
Against the eight lefties in the Yankees’ lineup, Gray used his four-seam and sinker a combined 59% of the time. The rest of his arsenal was made up of 12 sweepers, 10 curveballs, and three changeups. The fastballs were in the zone (~60% zone rate on both the four-seam and the sinker), while all three of his secondary pitches returned zone rates between 20% and 33%. While that might seem intuitive — fastballs in the zone, putaway pitches below it — that’s not always the case for Gray. He’s usually willing to flip his curveball in for called strikes, and occasionally does the same with his sweeper. On Wednesday, the plan was clearly to attack with fastballs for strikes, and breaking balls below the zone.
The Yankees’ lefties had the second-highest hard-hit rate against in-zone breaking balls from righties this season, as well as the seventh-highest barrel rate. They had the second-highest whiff rate, but Gray’s breaking balls didn’t miss bats in the zone this season. With those statistics in mind, it’s likely that Gray wasn’t going to change his game plan.
Now let’s look at the fastballs. The third time through the lineup, their performance seriously suffers. Entering the postseason, he threw his four-seam and sinker each about 18% of the time. He also used his cutter 15% of the time, but didn’t throw a single cutter to lefties on Wednesday and used it sparingly in his final start of the regular season, so it appeared to be removed from his game plan. The fastballs that he did use weren’t nearly as effective as they were early in games. The shape and velocity held, but the results did not. His four-seam ideal contact rate jumped from 40% to 56%, as the pitch found the middle of the plate often.
The sinker returned weak contact, but that was likely because the zone rate dropped from 60% the first two times through to 40% the third time through. Because of this, the called strike rate plummeted, and the strike rate fell to near 50%.
His breaking stuff wasn’t much better. The curveball had a huge swinging strike rate and chase rate, but when hitters did connect, it was hammered to the tune of a 67% ideal contact rate. The sweeper, his best whiff pitch, saw its chase rate drop 15% the third time through, thanks to bigger misses off the plate.
Bellinger is an excellent breaking ball hitter. Gray’s fastballs lose effectiveness later in games, and hitters don’t expand the zone as frequently against his sweepers. If those are your cards, you probably want to fold that hand in favor of another. The card that Tracy chose to play is a whole other can of worms, but there was a case for Gray to be removed.
If you read this and thought, “the analytics have gone too far, who cares that Gray’s sweeper is less effective the third time through the order it’s playoff baseball you pitch with your nuts not your arm blah blah blah”, I don’t blame you. As I wrote this, I questioned if I was too in the weeds myself, and still would have probably rolled the dice with Gray. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Gray’s early exit, I hope this provided some insight into what the team might have been thinking, because it really is deeper than blanket truths discovered by “analytics” that have been parroted 1,000 times by people who think Billy Beane ruined baseball.
