What's really behind Phillies' recent offensive drought originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The four-run seventh inning of Monday’s game at Oracle Park feels like forever ago.
That’s because the Phillies have not scored a run since then — 20 consecutive scoreless innings without one.
“Has it been that long?” Bryce Harper asked reporters after yet another shutout loss in San Francisco, sounding genuinely thrown by the number.
When the Phillies embarked on this West Coast trip after last Thursday’s electrifying comeback win, capped by Justin Crawford’s walk-off hit against the Nationals, it felt like the offense had some life again.
When they got to Colorado, they wasted no time carrying that momentum with them. They hung a statement seven-run first inning on the Rockies. Eleven batters came to the plate. They saw 44 pitches. It was an offensive clinic.
And yet, from that point on, the lineup has looked like a different group.
The Phillies did win the series in Colorado, but after that first inning, they scored only six runs over the final 26 innings against one of baseball’s weakest pitching staffs. Then they went farther west and into San Francisco, where they fell behind 4-0 through four innings in the opener before clawing all the way back behind six unanswered runs.
That game, more than anything, now looks like the exception.
Since that first inning in Denver, the Phillies have scored just 12 runs in 53 innings. That is the fewest in baseball over that span. They are batting .199 with a .574 OPS in the stretch, the third-lowest OPS in the sport.
So where is the real problem?
Recently, it has not been the top of the order.
That group was the main topic through the first six games of the season, all played at home. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper finished that first week slashing .164/.256/.315, a .571 OPS.
Over the last six games on the road, that same trio has slashed .302/.436/.508, a .944 OPS.
That is a massive swing, and it’s key, because the easiest storyline early on was that the stars at the top had not started hitting. Right now, that is not where the offense is breaking down. And it is hard to pin it on the bottom, either.
The Phillies have gotten quality at-bats from the last two spots in the order, mostly J.T. Realmuto and Crawford. Those lineup spots have combined for the second-highest on-base percentage in baseball at .362, trailing only the Dodgers.
That leaves the middle. More specifically, it leaves the fourth through seventh spots.
On the season, those spots are slashing .199/.256/.306, almost identical to what the offense has looked like during this recent dry spell. And when you split it apart further, the picture gets clearer.
Adolis García, who has spent time in that section of the lineup, has not been the issue. Neither has Brandon Marsh. García owns a .738 OPS. Marsh is at .727. Both have looked like contributors.
The bigger issue has been Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, who have primarily occupied the cleanup and fifth spots. Bohm is hitting .186 with a .550 OPS. Stott is hitting .167 with a .405 OPS, the fourth-lowest mark among qualified National League hitters.
That is where the offense has bogged down. Oddly enough, though, there is a caveat.
One issue that has been there since day one is the Phillies’ inability to hit with runners in scoring position. The club is batting .200 in those spots, second-worst in the league.
But the team’s two best hitters in those situations so far, even in a small sample, are Bohm and Stott.
Bohm is hitting .333 with runners in scoring position. Stott is at .250.
So the criticism of that four-five pocket is fair, but it is not as simple as saying those two have been the reason the Phillies have not scored. In the spots that matter most, they have actually been among the better producers.
The issue is that the lineup has not clicked in order. Too often, when one section has gotten going, another has stalled. That is why Rob Thomson’s postgame comments Wednesday were worth paying attention to. He did not sound like someone ready to overreact. But he also did not sound like someone ruling out a tweak.
When asked if he might shake up the lineup after the off day, he said, “Yeah, a little bit. I might.”
That is important because the likely changes are not hard to see.
García can move into the cleanup spot. Marsh, against right-handed pitching, can slide into the fifth spot. Bohm and Stott can each move down a couple of slots.
And if García and Marsh keep getting on, that could put Bohm and Stott in the exact situations where they have actually had success so far — with traffic on the bases and less pressure to be the engines of the offense.
A major topic all offseason was how to give Harper more right-handed protection in the middle of the order. Dave Dombrowski’s answer was García on a one-year prove-it deal worth $10 million.
Thomson, though, has long preferred a contact-oriented run producer like Bohm in the four-hole. That is understandable. It is also why this part of the season is magnified. It is where roles start to sort themselves out.
García’s biggest problem over the last two seasons has not been bat speed or power. It has been patience and pitch selection. His average chase rate over that stretch was 34.7 percent. His swing rate sat at 52.1 percent. His in-zone contact rate was 78.5 percent.
This year, in a smaller sample, the changes are real. He is chasing at just a 29.8 percent clip, swinging 48.2 percent of the time and making contact on in-zone pitches at an 87.5 percent rate. Those improvements mirror the progress he made in spring training, when he walked eight times and struck out only five.
If García can maintain that, and if Marsh continues doing what he has always done against right-handers, the middle of the order could start to look a lot more functional.
But that is the point. “Could.”
The Phillies are 6-6. They are playing .500 baseball. They are only 1.5 games out of first in the NL East. This is not a crisis piece. It should not be one. They’re just 12 games in.
Harper, looking at the bigger picture, put it plainly after Wednesday’s shutout loss in San Francisco.
“We have to be that team,” he said. “Because if we’re not, then we’re not going to be where we want to be at the end.”
That is probably the right way to read this. And a slump like this did happen last year.
The last time the Phillies were shut out for more than 20 straight innings was last June, when they went 26 innings without scoring against the Mets and Astros. Their next game, they scored 13 runs in Atlanta.
The Phillies and Thomson could certainly use one of those nights when they get back to home and face the Diamondbacks on Friday night. And if the skipper does make a tweak, it will not be because the lineup is broken.
It will be because right now, it just is not clicking in the right order.
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