For years, we've come to expect the MLB All-Star Game to feature players who have perennially been among the best in the sport. We become accustomed to seeing the same names fill out the rosters. Guys like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, and more. While some of those names are still here in Philadelphia, it feels like we're witnessing a little bit of a changing of the guard, particularly amongst the starting pitchers.
This year's All-Star rosters had 26 first-time players selected, and 14 of the starting pitchers will be making their first or second appearance in the Midsummer Classic. Six of those starting pitchers (plus Paul Skenes, who is making his third appearance) are 26 years old or younger, and all of them, apart from Skenes, have made fewer than 35 career MLB starts. For comparison's sake, Chris Sale, who is also participating in the All-Star Game, has made 329 career starts (even with his litany of injuries).
"I think the game's changing, the game's getting younger," acknowledged Reds' starting pitcher Chase Burns, who is making his first career All-Star appearance. "I know it probably sucks to say that for older guys, but, you know, it's because of them that the game's gotten better."
That deference to the veterans was common amongst the young hurlers who were present at the All-Star game: "It's a good mix of older, veteran guys that we can learn from, and then a lot of hungry guys that are trying to make it back here every year and stay healthy," said Yankees' starter Cam Schlittler, who is also making his first All-Star appearance.
The "hungry" young guys that Schlittler talked about have been making their presence known this season. Among qualified starting pitchers, five of the top 10 starters in WAR are current All-Stars who are 26 years old or younger. Seven of the top 12 qualified starting pitchers in terms of strikeout rate are 26 years old or younger, including the Guardians' Gavin Williams and the Mets' Nolan McLean, who were not selected as All-Stars.
Some of the success of younger pitchers can be attributed to technological advances that have enabled them to throw harder. The top three fastball velocities in baseball are all from pitchers at the All-Star Game who are 25 years old or younger: Burns, Schlittler, and the Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski, who is making his second All-Star appearance. Four additional starters aged 26 or under round out the top 12, including Williams, Skenes, his Pirates' teammate Braxton Ashcraft, who is making his first All-Star appearance, and the Twins' Taj Bradley.
"Now, there's so much technology, and everybody's just growing so much more," admitted Burns. That velocity has certainly helped the younger pitchers, but it's not the only reason they are succeeding. Especially since Guardians' starting pitcher Parker Messick, a first-time American League All-Star, doesn't even average 94 mph on his fastball: "I think I just try and fill up the zone and whatever happens, happens," said the left-hander.
What's funny is...that's not really true.
Through his first 26 MLB starts, Messick has just a 44.4% zone rate. The MLB average for starting pitchers, according to Pitcher List data, is 44.9%, so Messick is decidedly average when it comes to "filling up the zone." However, what Messick and his young peers are good at is getting ahead in the count, which is most likely what he's referring to. For his career, Messick has a 62.5% first-pitch strike rate, which is above average. He also has an above-average "True First Pitch Strike Rate," which removes balls in play on 0-0 counts to look at how often a pitcher legitimately gets to an 0-1 count.
Additionally, Messick has an above-average early called strike rate and is behind in the count less often than league-average, so, anyway you slice it, he has made a point of getting ahead of hitters. He's not the only one.
"The biggest thing is strike one," said Ashcraft. "I think that mentality for me came from throwing out of the bullpen last year. Just coming in and there being a huge priority on not walking guys coming into the game, limiting baserunners, mitigating free passes, whatever that looked like. Whether it's a dumb pitch selection, poor execution, walks, hit by pitches, stolen bases, etc. Free passes are never going to bode well in the back end of games, and taking that mentality to the front end of games has helped me a lot this year."
Seven of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball in walk rate (minimum 70 innings) are 26 years old or younger, including Ashcraft, Skenes, Schlittler, and Dodgers' first-time All-Star Justin Wrobleski. However, where most of these young pitchers shine isn't strictly in walk rate, but, as alluded to with Messick, in getting ahead of hitters.
In his 33 career MLB starts, Schlittler has been behind in the count 9.6% of the time, according to Pitcher List data. The MLB average is 12.1%. Skenes has been behind in the count 10.5% of the time, Wrobleski 9.8%, Ashcraft 11.1%, and Burns and Messick both at 11.8%. One of the biggest components in their collective ability to get ahead of hitters is an intense trust they have in their "stuff."
"I just trust that my stuff is going to be able to play," explained Messick. "That's just how I've always pitched. You go through the minor leagues, and you're always working on a new pitch or something different. Once you get up here, it's all about winning games, and I've just focused on trying to win... I do that by trusting my stuff."
"I think just being able to find my rhythm, find my identity a little bit," responded Schlittler when asked about why he's been able to have so much success. "It took me a little bit last year to figure out that I can just rely on my fastball. Now, being able to rely on three fastballs and a curveball. It takes time just to be able to make those adjustments."
Despite their confidence in their raw stuff, these young starters, who have grown up in an age of reflective thinking and with a wealth of information at their disposal, are also adept at making the adjustments that Schlittler alluded to. Part of that comes with being comfortable taking a hard look at yourself.
"Just being able to evaluate yourself on a daily basis," answered Ashcraft when asked about what enables a young pitcher to transition seamlessly to the big leagues. "Being able to look at yourself in the mirror and say today was not good enough in terms of the body of work you put in, or how you went about your attitude throughout your work."
It's also about simplifying your mindset.
"Let's keep it simple, stupid," added Ashcraft. "There are a lot of ways you can look at baseball as a whole. It can force you into getting really negative on yourself or getting really high on yourself, because, with success in the big leagues, there are a lot of rewards that come from it, right? And, with failure, there are some pretty swift and stark consequences for it. So, just trying to mitigate how high you get or how low you get when it comes to success and failure."
The younger crop of starting pitchers is prepped for that in a way that older players were not at the same age. Most organizations now employ mental skills coaches, whose primary focus ishelping younger players find their identity and become comfortable with the inevitability of failure. Additionally, while previous approaches to developing players at the minor leagues focused intensely on mechanics and skill fundamentals, organizations have begun to prioritize mindfulness or mental health approaches that focus on everything from reflective journaling, sleep habits, diet, and an understanding of the consequences this endeavor has on both your body and your mind.
"I think the biggest thing, honestly, comes down to the work you put into taking care of your body coming into spring training," reflected Schlittler. "You get to June and July, and your body's either going to wear down, or it's actually going to get stronger based on the work you put in the off-season... You take care of your body, and you'd be surprised how many players don't, and you work a little bit harder, and you can end up in the right place at the right time."
For Burns, that success and preparedness came from an intense focus on "sticking to the routine. Taking care of my arm. Just working hard every day, taking care of business."
Yet, for all of their early success, the young crop of starting pitchers isn't satisfied to rest on their early accomplishments. "They're all competitors," smiled Messick. "They're all great guys, and they just want to win." A large part of that desire to win also means acknowledging that you're never done evolving and growing.
"I've still got a lot to learn," admitted Schlittler. "I'm still out there making adjustments, especially over the last few starts, so I'm just trying to ride with it."
"It helps when you have guys that feel comfortable around," added Ashcraft, "that communicate on a very personal level to be able to hold each other accountable and say, 'Hey, man, you didn't get better today.'"
That intense focus on getting better every day is driving this young crop of starting pitchers. They're not doing it in a vacuum. They understand the value of the experience from the veterans who surround them. But they also know what they are capable of, and they're excited to show a national audience that their time isn't just in the future; it's right now.
"I feel like the future is really bright for this league," smiled Schlittler. "It's going to be really fun to watch it all unfold."
