Starting tonight, two small market teams who have never won a title will attempt to do so when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays for Game 1 of the 2026 World Series.
With a lockout looming and owners clamoring for a salary cap they say is necessary to restore competitive balance, the teams with the No. 19 (Milwaukee) and No. 28 (Tampa) payrolls are facing off against one another for all the marbles. Both teams led their respective leagues in victories and entered the postseason as the No. 1 seeds.
The fact these two teams are playing in the Fall Classic is proof that one does not need to have a payroll north of $250 million in order to be successful. Having money certainly helps, as the Los Angeles Dodgers have proven over the last few years and, all things being equal, fans should want their teams to spend money on players. The only reason the Phillies have gone on this five-year run of postseason appearances is because they’ve had one of the top-five payrolls in the sport.
The goal should be to spend a lot of money, but also to do it wisely.
Instead of dumping cash into the 26-man roster, the Rays and Brewers instead choose to spend their resources on hiring scouts and a deep analytics department whose goal is to give them a competitive advantage and help them develop their minor leaguers. Tampa and Milwaukee have done a marvelous job on both accounts, consistently producing top prospects that, upon entering the Majors, become low-cost productive players and, sometimes, even stars.
It would be easy to assume, given the Phils’ inability to make adjustments during slumps and their lack of top-end homegrown talent among position players and relievers, that the front office isn’t investing in those things as much as teams like the Brewers and Rays. That, however, is not true.
According to those tweets (neither of which I have independently verified but both come from reputable sources), no team in baseball has more people working in their analytics department (51) than the Phillies, and only two have more employed scouts. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb said last week the team had roughly 40 people working in analytics, but noted “most teams are secretive about their staffing.”
Regardless of the specific number, it’s a lot, among the most in Major League Baseball and certainly as robust as Milwauee’s 46 analytics employees and the Rays’ 39. The Phils have come a long way since 2014 when I interviewed Scott Freedman, the very first analytics employee hired by the Phillies, under Ruben Amaro, Jr. According to his LinkedIn page, Scott is now involved in sports and real estate planning and development.
But he got the ball rolling. Quite a difference in 12 years.
At his year-end press conference, Dombrowski talked about how the team has been using data. When you employ 51 people to provide information solutions for the field staff and front office, it’s clear work is being done. This is not an area the front office is pinching pennies. However, given Dombrowski’s comments, it sounds like either there are issues with the way the data is being produced and formulated, or the coaches and players throughout the organization aren’t using it or are using it incorrectly, especially on the hitting side (quote via The Athletic).
“They [the analytics department] supply good information that we are looking to improve upon. But I think they’re very good. I think that they really have a good foundation.
“For example, they work with (pitching coach) Caleb (Cotham) all the time, right? Well, from the pitching perspective, we’re known as being very progressive. So I think it’s not only how you get the information, but then how other people want to use it, too. That is information we need to do a better job at using. That’s not the analytic people’s fault. It’s something we need to do a better job at emphasizing ourselves.”
Matt Gelb also noted the team promoted Dan Aucoin in August to run the research and development arm of the analytics department:
On the hitting side, the Phillies have had analysts embedded in the underground cage for years. Hitters were often citing data presented to them by Kevin Long and other coaches. Maybe it could be better incorporated.
Since his promotion, Aucoin has rearranged the department by establishing a clearer hierarchy through new positions: an assistant director of pitching research (Kyle Lennon) and an assistant director of hitting research (Kyle Lindley).
The Phillies overhauled the R&D department’s “predictive modeling” staff in September. At least seven members of the R&D team have departed the Phillies since then. The predictive modeling group formed “the organization’s forecasts of player performance,” according to the team’s media guide.
All this requires some tea leaf reading, but it’s obvious something is amiss with this robust analytics department, the information they were providing and who and how the data was being used.
Dombrowski appears to want to create a hitting school, backed by data, that will behave in a way similar to the team’s pitching lab that has seen a good deal of success over the last couple years. They turned Andrew Painter around mid-season, helped Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo find another level, and gained success with relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman a few years ago.
But it’s not all analytics. Part of the Moneyball debate from the mid-2000s was a push back against big league scouts who only wanted to use feel, the eye test, and other intangibles when making their assessments of ball players. Teams today realize that scouts still serve a vital role, provided they are speaking the language the front office wants them to speak.
Even with a robust analytics department, the Phillies have the third-largest scouting department in MLB, according to Baseball America, with only the Yankees and Dodgers featuring more scouts. Their 89 scouts are more than the Rays’ 84 and the Brewers’ 78.
Again, these numbers may not be exact, but they paint a picture of an organization that is investing in the same ways the so-called “small market” teams are.
The Phillies have pro scouts, amateur scouts, international scouts and others scouring the country and the world for talent. So the question isn’t simply about numbers. Instead, important questions need to be asked.
Are they looking for a particular set of traits from hitters and pitchers? If so, is it aligned with what the analytics department is emphasizing? Is it aligned with traits the coaching staff wants? Are these players ill-fitted to what the coaching staff looks for? Should they be focusing less on pro scouting and more on amateur scouting? Are they putting their resources in the right places?
There has been a lot of shakeup in the organization’s front office, farm system hierarchy and analytics departments over the last calendar year. These kinds of changes indicate something wasn’t working.
But part of solving a problem is admitting there is one, and the best news is that the Phillies aren’t trying to solve these problems on the cheap. They have invested heavily in both of the areas, more heavily than the two World Series participants.
Milwaukee and Tampa are simply doing it better, and it’s up to the Phils’ front office to figure out what they’re doing wrong with the multitude of resources they have at their disposal.
