The NL East race takes center stage Friday night as the first-place Atlanta Braves (83-57) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (79-61) at Citizens Bank Park to open a four-game series. Each is firmly in possession of a playoff berth, so this weekend is all about the division. The Braves currently hold a four-game lead over the Phillies. Bryce Harper and co. have battled back from an horrendous start to the season to make this race interesting but Atlanta can all but wrap up the division with even a split of this series.
Atlanta arrives in Philadelphia after a brief two-game set against the Washington Nationals. The Braves dropped the opener 9-5 on Tuesday but bounced back with a 9-0 win Wednesday to improve to 8-2 over their last ten games. Philadelphia comes home after a successful trip out west. The Phillies closed out the trip taking two of three from the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning 2-1 Monday and 7-1 on Tuesday before dropping the finale 1-0. Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last ten.
Tonight features two of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball this season. Atlanta hands the ball to veteran left-hander Chris Sale (13-9, 2.06 ERA), who has quietly just dominated this season. How good? Sale has allowed more than three runs in a game (earned or otherwise) just once all season. The Angels tagged him for six in four innings on April 6. In his 23 other starts, Sale has allowed three earned runs five times and blanked his opponent seven times. The Phillies counter with left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (16-4, 2.52 ERA) who has been Philly’s ace especially when pitching at home. Sanchez holds a record of 11-1 with a 1.68 ERA in home starts this season. Philadelphia has gone 21-7 overall in games he has started.
Diamond Note: Bryce Harper has reached base in 34 consecutive games.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Braves vs. Phillies
Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
Time: 6:40PM EST
Site: Citizens Bank Park
City: Philadelphia, PA
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.
The Latest Odds: Braves vs. Phillies
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (-109), Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Spread: Braves -1.5 (164), Phillies +1.5 (-200)
Total: 6.5 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Braves vs. Phillies for September 4
Braves: Chris Sale Season Totals: 144.0 IP, 13-9, 2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 177K, 28 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Braves vs. Phillies
Ozzie Albies is 8-15 in his career against Cristopher Sanchez
Matt Olson is 6-20 including 2 HRs against Sanchez
Lane Thomas is 8-14 against Sanchez
Cristopher Sanchez owns a record of 11-1 with a 1.68 ERA at home this season
Kyle Schwarber is 5-19 with 2 HRs in his career against Chris Sale
Bryce Harper is 9-15 over his last 4GP but is 2-15 with 7 strikeouts in his career against Sale
Luis Arraez is 3-17 over his last 5GP
Chris Sale has struck out 8+ hitters in 5 of his last 6 starts
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Braves vs. Phillies
The Braves are 75-65 on the Run Line this season
The Phillies are 58-82 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 63 times in Atlanta’s 140 games this season (63-71-6)
The OVER has cashed 63 times in the Phillies’ 140 games this season (63-69-8)
Expert picks & predictions: Braves vs. Phillies
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Phillies and the Braves:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Braves on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 6.5.
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There were warm words for hat-trick hero Henry Crocombe last night from one who should know, Jamie Porter.
“I think he is very exciting.” said Porter. “He bowled with serious pace. The element that I felt was potentially missing from his game to take him to that level of being on the cusp of international cricket he seems to have added.”
BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 03: Adley Rutschman #31 of the Boston Red Sox acknowledges fans during the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Thursday, September 3, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Alyssa Piazza/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, Camden Chatters.
Well, gang, the vibes are…not great. The Orioles finally returned to Camden Yards last night after nearly two weeks on the road, but what could’ve been an uplifting series-opening victory against the Red Sox turned sour in the late innings. There were plenty of reasons for the O’s loss, which I’ll get to momentarily, but the biggest factor was that Adley Rutschman did Adley Rutschman things, only this time against the Orioles instead of for them.
It was an emotional night for Orioles fans as the Birds’ former #1 overall pick and franchise cornerstone played his first game in Baltimore as a member of the opposing team. Rutschman received a loud, extended standing ovation before his first at-bat in the top of the first, and another one after the inning when the Orioles played a tribute video on the Jumbotron. Adley was noticeably appreciative of the crowd, doffing his helmet and holding his hand to his heart, and his greetings with his former teammates were no less joyful (Pete Alonso gave him a hug in his first at-bat, aw).
And then Rutschman went out and beat the Birds, hitting not one but two home runs off an otherwise dominant Brandon Young and setting the stage for Boston’s late comeback. Ugh. Talk about a bittersweet reunion. Personally I was hoping we could see Adley succeed but his team fail miserably. We only got the first part of that.
Seeing Rutschman stomp the Orioles just opens old wounds about Mike Elias’s decision to trade him. On a baseball level, it made sense, and the O’s did get a nice haul of prospects. But man, I wish the Orioles, not the Sox, could be the team that’s locked into a playoff spot right now, with Adley helping to lead them to victory. But of course, that would have required the Orioles to put together a more competent team around him.
Last night’s loss laid bare the many problems that plague the Orioles right now. Their bullpen has collapsed, with almost no reliever proving to be a reliable option at the moment. Even Yennier Cano, who’s been the best of the lot for most of the season, fumbled yesterday by coughing up the go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth. Before that, the O’s had a chance to get out of the inning on a double play, but Blaze Alexander spiked the relay throw to keep the Sox alive. So, yeah, bad defense is still an issue for the Orioles, too.
First-year manager Craig Albernaz continues to befuddle everyone with his inexplicable in-game tactics. Last night he astoundingly let Carlos Narváez hit for himself with two on and two out in a tie game in the seventh. Why even have three catchers on the roster if you’re not going to pinch-hit for Narváez in such a crucial situation? Samuel Basallo, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, and Colton Cowser were all available on the bench, and while the Sox did have a southpaw on the mound, I’d take my chances with any of those left-handed hitters (or Yohel Pozo, if you insist on a righty) instead of Narváez, who is 5-for-55 as an Oriole and has a .486 OPS against lefties this year. Compounding the blunder, Albernaz did pinch-hit for both Coby Mayo and Luis Robert Jr., two far better hitters than Narváez, just one inning later. What are we doing here, buddy?
Overall, the Orioles just seemed fatigued, which is understandable considering their brutal travel schedule of late. Since Aug. 25, they’ve traveled to the Central Time Zone (St. Louis) to the Pacific (Sacramento) to the Mountain (Denver) and back to the Eastern (Baltimore), all without a single day off. The schedule makers did the O’s no favors, and the Birds may be paying the price.
That’s the third loss in a row for the Orioles, who remain 1.5 games behind the losing Guardians for the third wild card spot, but have now fallen a full game behind both the Rangers and Blue Jays. The O’s have yet to win since Colton Cowser’s game-saving catch in Colorado on Monday. I was hoping we’d eventually look at that play as the moment that sparked the Orioles into a playoff run. Instead, we might eventually look at that play as the last time we felt good about the Orioles this season.
That feeling is going to last for more than one night, I think. There are still three more games in this series for Adley to hit a bunch more home runs.
There’s a Jim Mora quote that perfectly sums up my response to this headline.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Former Orioles born on this day include catcher Mark Kolozsvary (31), infielder Luis López (56), right-hander Doyle Alexander (76), and the late first baseman Eddie Waitkus (b. 1919, d. 1972).
On this date in 1957, Orioles 18-year-old right-hander Jerry Walker threw a 10-inning shutout to beat the Senators, 1-0. What were you doing at age 18?
In 1969, the Orioles pulled off a ninth-inning comeback in Detroit in most impressive fashion. Down by three runs, they led off the ninth with three consecutive homers by Frank Robinson, Boog Powell, and Brooks Robinson to tie the game. Later in the inning, a Mark Belanger RBI groundout sealed the Birds’ 5-4 come-from-behind win.
Exactly a year later, Brooks Robinson contributed to another O’s win by going 5-for-5 with two home runs at Fenway Park to top the Red Sox, 8-6. Brooks loved hitting on Sept. 4, apparently.
In 1982, 36-year-old right-hander Jim Palmer threw a one-hit shutout to beat the Twins, 3-0. (And at twice Jerry Walker’s age!) It was Palmer’s 11th consecutive victory, improving his record to 13-3.
And on this day in 2012, the Orioles demolished the Blue Jays in Toronto, 12-0, behind an 18-hit explosion and Zack Britton’s seven shutout innings. The win pulled the O’s into a first-place tie with the Yankees, marking the first time in 15 years that the Orioles had been in first place in September.
Random Orioles game of the day
On Sept. 4, 2018, the Orioles…actually won a game! That’s a season where they finished 47-115, so it’s a legitimate surprise to discover a win on any given date. The O’s beat the Mariners in Seattle, 5-3, thanks to a four-run rally in the seventh. Reñato Nunez tied the game with a homer and Jonathan Villar, Joey Rickard, and Trey Mancini each collected an RBI in the frame. Even Chris Davis, well into his late-career collapse by then, contributed an RBI single in the ninth. Alex Cobb threw a quality start to run his record to 5-15, and Mychal Givens notched the last five outs for the save. The win “improved” the Orioles to 41-98. It snapped a four-game losing streak, though they started a six-game skid the next day.
36 years ago today, on September 4, 1990, the Montreal Canadiens, through Serge Savard, traded Claude Lemieux, who had put up 18 points in just 39 games in the previous season, for Sylvain Turgeon, who had recorded 47 points in 72 games with the New Jersey Devils.
Lemieux went on to play with the Devils for five seasons and win the Stanley Cup for the second time in his career in 1995, also winning the Conn Smythe Trophy with 16 points, including 13 goals in 20 games. Before the start of the next season, Lemieux was sent to the Colorado Avalanche, where he would win two more Stanley Cups, meaning that after leaving the Habs, Lemieux went on to win three more Cups, play another 15 seasons in the NHL (934 games) and score another 597 points.
Meanwhile, Turgeon spent only two seasons with the Canadiens, playing 75 games and scoring 32 points. Luck wasn’t on his side, and he suffered a fractured kneecap in his first year with the Habs, which set the tone for two tumultuous seasons. He was eventually left unprotected in the 1992 expansion draft and selected by the Ottawa Senators, ending his association with the Canadiens. Turgeon would go on to play three seasons for the Senators before hanging up his skates after just 699 games.
That trade wasn’t a great one for Savard, who was reportedly handcuffed by the fact that Lemieux had requested a trade, unhappy with how much ice time he was getting under coach Pat Burns. To this day, the Canadiens could still use a player of the same ilk as Lemieux; he was talented and produced offensively, but he was also a real pain to play against and could get in his opponents’ heads and under their skin.
Thankfully, before he passed tragically this summer, Lemieux had the chance to say goodbye to the public that loved him in the 1980s, as he returned as a torchbearer during the playoffs ahead of the Canadiens’ third game against the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final.
What does the Statistical Doppelganger Machine say about Tre Johnson’s rookie season? | NBAE via Getty Images
One the Tre Johnson comps produced by The Statistical Doppelganger Machine has me…hmm…the words “kinda stoked” flowed from brain to fingers to keyboard to screen. But “kinda” and “stoked” don’t really go together, so…let’s just go with “stoked.”
Editor’s Note: Kevin, you just used the words together while talking about how they don’t go together.
Kevin’s Note: I’m employing Literary License. Also, keep reading. Maybe I was initially stoked and then did more research and needed to add “kinda.”
Where were we? Oh yeah, stoked.
Which direction will Tre Johnson’s career go? | NBAE via Getty Images
Before diving into the comps, I remind readers of what I wrote earlier in the series this year: these comps are not necessarily predictive. The exercise is to see what players have similar production at a similar age. With very young players (Johnson was 19 last season), similar starts can result in wildly divergent career paths.
Johnson had some injury issues but managed 60 games and 1,443 minutes last season, which included 42 starts. What I saw from his rookie season largely reinforced my pre-draft evaluation of Johnson — both strengths and weaknesses.
The strength: shooting. His three-point percentage wasn’t great, but he plays with the confidence of a great shooter. His form was good, the release quick, and he was perfectly to let rip even when closely defended. The underlying shooting skill was evident in his 87.4% free throw shooting, which was elite. Compare with the 87.3% rookie free throw percentage of Kevin Durant, for example.
The anticipated weaknesses were also present however. Which…well…was kinda everything else. Lack of athletic explosiveness (just 7% of his field goal attempts were in the at-rim are, and nearly 18% were in the floater range), and lack of all-around dimension to his game. “Dimension” in this case meaning defense, rebounding, play making.
That shooting though — 45.8% from 10-16 feet and 51.1% on long twos. Those midrange percentages are enough to attract defensive attention, as is the three-point threat. He’ll shoot better from deep as he gains strength and experience.
That said, it’s tough to excel on a diet of midrange jumpers. Even very good shooters of long twos often are leaking efficiency. They’re sometimes necessary, and they’re a good tool to have in the bag for when you can’t get to the rim or get a three. But they shouldn’t be a first option.
The solution to getting so many shots from floater range isn’t for Johnson to work on a better floater. Rather, I’d prefer to see him work on his body and craft to get to the rim or get fouled. He averaged just 2.8 free throw attempts per 100 team possessions (about half the league average) — an indication that he wasn’t stressing defenses.
Hopefully the defense and perhaps playmaking will come around. I think he could become a “good enough” playmaker with experience despite the 1.3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio (league average was 1.9).
Let’s talk doppelgangers. For those just coming in, this is an annual “dog days” of the NBA tradition in which I run players through my Statistical Doppelganger Machine. The Machine then tells me which NBA player seasons since 1977-78 most closely resemble the reference player.
The Machine’s algorithm uses 14 categories, including age. It does not use position or size but tends to produce comparison players from a similar position group. In other words, it’s rare for a point guard to get a center comp and vice versa.
To the doppelgangers:
Tre Mann | 2021-22 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 20 — Mann showed some promise as a rookie but hasn’t managed to find his career footing. At least not yet. He’s hovered around replacement level for five seasons and has gotten hurt a lot too. He might have a shot in Washington this year after the team acquired him for financial reasons. If he makes the final roster.
Jamal Murray | 2016-17 | Denver Nuggets | Age: 19 — This is the comp that has me stoked. My initial reaction was to mentally reject it because Murray has become a very good playmaker. But that happened later. As a rookie, these two produced in very similar ways (per possession) as rookies — right down to two-point, three-point, and free throw shooting. One big and probably meaningful difference — 22.6% of Murray’s field goal attempts were at-rim.
Coby White | 2019-20 | Chicago Bulls | Age: 19 — Smaller and “more point guard” than Johnson, but the production patterns are similar and White’s playmaking uptick happened later.
Tim Hardaway Jr. | 2014-15 | New York Knicks | Age: 22 — This feels like something of a “worst case” for Johnson, which wouldn’t be bad at all. Hardaway is a good shooter and good-enough defender to have real value to good teams.
Malik Monk | 2019-20 | Charlotte Hornets | Age: 21 — I hesitate to include Monk here, though I can see the similarities despite Monk having better athletic tools. Monk’s career got sidetracked as he dealt with some personal issues and he emerged as a useful off-the-bench contributor when he moved on from Charlotte.
Some recognizable names in the honorable mention category:
Keon Johnson
Tyler Herro
Nick Smith Jr.
Klay Thompson
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
While Murray’s name landing second had me kinda stoked, I think there are enough stylistic and athletic differences to suggest that’s not a realistic trajectory for Johnson. Klay Thompson seems more the archetype (especially if Johnson can get stronger and improve his defense) or perhaps Reggie Miller (who did even less rebounding and playmaking as a youngster than Johnson did last season).
Feb 15, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Team USA Stripes forward Kawhi Leonard (2) of the LA Clippers and Team USA Stripes guard De'Aaron Fox of the San Antonio Spurs (4) celebrate after game two during the 75th NBA All Star Game at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
In the wake of the NBA doling out punishment for the Aspiration salary circumvention scandal involving the Los Angeles Clippers, Kawhi Leonard, and his uncle Dennis Robertson, the internet has blown up with suggestions for the Clippers future. Everything from relocating the team to Las Vegas, San Diego, or another worthy city (despite the recent construction of a state of the art arena in Inglewood) to trading their current assets immediately to acquire future draft picks.
It’s the latter that has potential to involve the Spurs.
Some of the worst contracts in the league that the LA Clippers could consider taking on at the deadline for draft capital:
• Joel Embiid • Jakob Poeltl • Ja Morant • Anthony Davis • Christian Braun • Paul George • Immanuel Quickley • De’Aaron Fox • Patrick Williams pic.twitter.com/yzcRQTtK2Z
In this scenario, the Clippers could take on some of the leagues worst contracts paired with draft picks to supplement the five that were taken from them as a result of the investigation. One post even stated that the Spurs could trade Darius Garland who has roughly $87M remaining over two years for De’Aaron Fox 4-year/$222M deal.
Strangely enough, Garland and Fox were initially considered by the Spurs for the point guard position. Both are represented by Rich Paul and he was pushing Garland toward the Spurs until Fox made it clear he did not mind giving up the spotlight in Sacramento for Victor Wembanyama’s shadow in San Antonio.
What has happened since the trade has seen the emergence of both Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper into two of the best young guards in the league. Paired with the injury Fox sustained before the NBA Finals, fans were writing off the inaugural NBA Clutch Player of the Year as the Spurs headed into the offseason shaking off disappointment.
Why trading Fox for Garland makes sense for the Spurs now
As mentioned, there is a potential logjam at the guard position. With Fox, Castle, and Harper in the mix, there may not be enough minutes to go around. Fox initially brought a much needed veteran presence to the young Spurs core. Now the team is growing up right in front of everyone’s eyes.
There’s a second consideration. Fox demands a significant chunk of the Spurs available funds. With each passing year, the young core will require larger paydays. The Spurs committed a 5-year/$252M to Victor Wembanyama, a huge increase from his 4-year/$55M rookie contract. As it stands, Wemby left $50M on the table allowing for some flexibility, but Castle is eligible for a rookie extension next summer and with Harper eligible for an extension in the summer of 2028. Trading Fox’s contract for Garland’s offers flexibility in the years the Spurs need to capitalize on their Big 3.
Why the trade is not ideal
For starters, who wants to be the first team to lend a helping hand to the Los Angeles Clippers? And do we really want to do Swipa that way? Business is business, but sending a player to the non-Lakers version of Tinseltown right now could be construed as a sign of disrespect. The Los Angeles Clippers is exactly where 2018 Kawhi Leonard deserved to go. Ironically, the Spurs refused to send him there. He eventually found his way now has now left it burning in his wake as he beelines it out of the country.
No matter what happens, it will be interesting to see how the continued saga of the Clippers plays out.
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Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers are in the midst of another solid winning stretch, and they’re one step closer to locking up the NL Central with just over three weeks to go in the regular season. After facing the Cubs for four games at Wrigley, they’ll continue their Central schedule with three games against the Reds, three games against the Cubs, three games against the Reds, and three games against the Pirates to get them to mid-September.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
Happy birthday to Andrelton Simmons, and a mighty host of others.
Today in baseball history, in 2024 – With Shōta Imanaga pitching the first seven innings, three Cubs pitchers combine for a 12-0 no-hitter against the Pirates at Wrigley Field. Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge pitch one inning each to complete the feat. Imanaga is responsible for all seven strikeouts in the game, while Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong both homer and drive in three runs to lead to offense. It is the first no-hitter by the Cubs in the normally hitter-friendly ballpark since 1972, and other stories as well.
1920 – In Boston, 33,000 are on hand for a doubleheader and to see Babe Ruth return to the Yankee lineup. The Babe hits his 45th homer in the opener to give New York a 5-3 win.
1935 – Carl Hubbell subdues the Reds, 6-4, for his 20th win of the season. King Carl scatters 12 hits including three apiece by Kiki Cuyler and Lew Riggs.
1961 – Roberto Clemente leads the Pirates to a 9-4 win over the Cardinals. After doubling and scoring the first of three first-inning Pirate runs, Clemente greets newly-inserted reliever Al Cicotte with a line-drive home run worth three more runs.
1961 – At Los Angeles, Don Drysdale stops the Giants, 4-0, allowing just two hits.
1982 – At Baltimore, Jim Palmerone-hits the Twins, 3-0, for Baltimore to get his 11th consecutive victory. It is Palmer’s second career one-hitter against the Twins.
1999 – The Red Sox defeat the Mariners, 4-0, as Pedro Martinez wins his 20th game, striking out 15 batters in eight innings of work.
2002 – Randy Johnson pitches a complete game in defeating the Dodgers, 7-1. The Diamondbacks’ ace improves to 20-5 on the year and punches out eight opponents to give him 300 or more strikeouts for the fourth straight season, the first ever pitcher to do so
1908 – In a game, the significance of which will not be recognized for another three weeks, the Pirates and Cubs are tied 0-0 in the last of the 10th at Pittsburgh. With two outs and the bases loaded, Pittsburgh’s Owen Wilson singles to CF, scoring Fred Clarke with the winning run. Warren Gill, on first base, does not get to second but stops short, turns, and heads for the dugout, a common practice. The Cubs’ Johnny Evers calls for the ball from Jimmy Slagle, touches second, and claims the run does not count as Gill has been forced. The lone umpire, Hank O’Day, has left the field. When queried, he rules that Clarke had already scored, so the run counts. The Cubs protest to league president Harry Pulliam, but are denied. This is the first time the Cubs try this tactic, but not the last, as the Fred Merkle game will demonstrate.
1916 – Reds player-manager Christy Mathewson, pitching his only game not in a Giant uniform, beats his long-time nemesis Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown and the Cubs, 10-8, in the second game of a twin bill, in what is the final career game for both pitching greats. Matty takes a 10-5 lead into the ninth, but wanting to match Brown’s complete game feat, hangs on to record the final three outs in spite of three runs scoring in the bottom of the ninth. In the 25 contests in which the two legends have faced one another, Matty, by winning the last decision, takes a 13-12 advantage over his rival.
2020 – Yu Darvish continues his dominant season as he allows just one hit – a solo homer by Matt Carpenter to lead off the sixth inning – and no walks while striking out 11 in seven innings in defeating the Cardinals, 4-1. The Cubs ace is now 7-1, 1.44 on the season.
1861 – British Association for the Advancement of Science proposes standard units of electrical measurement (the Volt after Alessandro Volta; the Ohm after Georg Ohm) at its 31st annual meeting (Manchester, England).
1888 – George Eastman patents the first roll-film camera and registers the brand name “Kodak”.
1950 – “Beetle Bailey” comic strip debuts in 12 newspapers.
1965 – Rock group The Who’s van is vandalized with $10,000 worth of equipment stolen while the group is inside Battersea Dogs Home buying a guard dog at the time.
1972 – “The Price is Right,” the US’s longest-running games show, debuts on CBS.
1998 – Google is formally incorporated by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, two students at Stanford University.
2025 – Long-lost painting, ‘Portrait of a Lady’ by Giuseppe Ghislandi, is handed over to the Argentine justice system after being discovered in an estate that belonged to the daughter of a Nazi fugitive; the painting was looted in Nazi-occupied Europe, missing for 80 years.
The Detroit Tigers are moving on to the second leg of their current American League Central road trip starting on Friday with a doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. The opener of the four-game series is a make-up for a matchup originally scheduled for June 14 that was postponed due to weather.
On Friday afternoon, right-hander Keider Montero will get the start for the visitors. It will be the 25-year-old’s third outing against the Guardians this year, having earned a loss in his first appearance back in May after giving up three runs in five innings; he earned a win in his second start against the AL Central rival with 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball in August. Both games were in Detroit.
Taking the mound in the second game is left-hander Andrew Sears, who will be making his first-ever MLB start. He has produced mixed results out of the bullpen so far, but hopefully, the just-recently-turned 24-year-old can find a groove as a starter.
For Cleveland, southpaw Logan Allen takes the hill in the first game of the doubleheader for his second start of the 2026 campaign. The 27-year-old spent most of the season at Triple-A Columbus — having hurled for the big league club in a pair of games during May and July — before being recalled in mid-August for his latest stint in the majors.
For the nightcap, another left-hander, Foster Griffin, gets the call for the 28th time this summer. The 31-year-old saw the Tigers last month at Progressive Field, spinning five frames of three-run (but one earned run) ball en route to his 13th win in a 6-4 final.
Make note that the second game of the doubleheader will be broadcast on Apple TV, while the first game will be shown on Detroit SportsNet and MLB.tv.
Detroit Tigers (64-75) vs. Cleveland Guardians (70-70)
Time (ET): 2:10 p.m. ET, 7:15 p.m. ET Place: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner Media: Detroit SportsNet, Apple TV, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Game 140: RHP Keider Montero (9-8, 3.24 ERA) vs. LHP Logan Allen (0-0, 3.77 ERA)
Player
G
IP
K%
BB%
GB%
FIP
fWAR
Montero
28
139.0
16.5
5.6
41.7
3.86
2.4
Allen
6
14.1
22.4
6.0
45.7
4.98
0.0
MONTERO
ALLEN
Game 141: LHP Andrew Sears (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. LHP Foster Griffin (15-4, 3.21 ERA)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 23: Kyle Leahy #62 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, August 23, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Michael Mooney/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
When I learned late last year that the Cardinals intended to make Kyle Leahy a starter, my first impression was….hmmm. I sifted some data on his past as an MiLB starter and was profoundly unimpressed. His starting history, last at AA, was quite similar to many young pitchers who never see a major league mound. Not promising. Yet, we had some more recent data where he was experiencing a fair amount of success as kind of a jack-of-all-trades reliever. Enough that I wasn’t sure what bucket to put him in. Swingman? Multi-inning relief? Leverage reliever? In 2024, he showed some promise. In 2025, he handled all the roles thrown at him adroitly, confounding the predictive stats that preceded him. His 88 IP of relief defied orthodoxy that would suggest overload, and yet he closed the year with a starting assignment! My (first) impression was that he was one of those guys who might be more than a reliever but perhaps less than a full-on regular starter. A tweener in the mold of Colin Rea or Chad Patrick. I wondered if the decision to move him to starter was motivated more by lack of starting depth than it was a real attempt to better leverage his pitching acumen. Like many things, I was willing to see how it turned out, and I put this date in my calendar of articles to write, and I would come back and re-assess. So, here we are.
We now have almost two years of data on Mr. Leahy. Albeit somewhat mixed because of his changing roles, but we are moving beyond small sample size. Starting with some raw counting stats showing what he has accomplished as a starter in 2026, I see he has accumulated 2.4 fWAR through the end of August. That places him 40th among MLB starters, almost in a dead heat with our own Andre Pallante. Some folks would describe this performance as a solid#2. I’m not sure I’d go that far. I look at good rotations (SEA, NYY, PHI) and see that they have multiple starters operating above this level, in some cases a fair bit above (5 pitchers have more than doubled Leahy’s 2.4 fWAR). In reality, in a strong rotation, Leahy’s performance would be 3rd or 4th best. That is nothing to sneeze at. So, overall, he has been pretty good.
Breaking his performance down by month, there are some striking numbers:
Month
FIP
xERA
xFIP
K-BB%
K%
BB%
Apr
5.57
6.28
4.21
8.20%
16.40%
8.20%
May
3.75
6.85
4.32
11.20%
20.70%
9.50%
June
3.01
4.42
4.24
11.10%
19.40%
8.30%
July
3.32
3.35
3.1
20.40%
24.50%
4.10%
Aug
0.87
3.11
2.15
29.30%
32.10%
2.70%
Overall
3.51
4.85
3.69
14.70%
21.70%
14.70%
When I look at any pitcher, these columns are my go-to, first look indicators. My very first? 3.51 overall FIP. I like anything under 4.00, and anything under 3.50 falls in the really, really good category. I was immediately curious about his FIP as compared to xERA and xFIP. I think of FIP as expected ERA based on pitcher controllables. xERA is expected ERA based on context-insensitive batted ball data. Across 3 years of MLB history, Leahy has consistently over-performed his xStats. Some of that is the ballpark he pitches in, some of that is the defense he pitches in front of, and some of that is his innate ability to avoid hard pull contact. It becomes hard to attribute much to good luck, not across 3 years.
What I really notice is that Kyle has improved as the season has gone on, with the inflection point appearing in June. He struggled across the board in April, his predictive stats (FIP) suggested better days in May and by June his actual results started to really improve. Notice how his xERA comes closer to his FIP as the season wears on. Not as much divergence. I note the striking difference in K-BB% from July onward. Something to explore when I mine the pitch-by-pitch data. My personal threshold is I look for a K-BB% of 15 or better. These last two months have been a fair bit better. Sustainable? Interestingly, he has improved both his K% and his BB% as the season has gone on. But that stark change between June and July sure stands out. What gives?
We will get there, but I follow my usual methodology in diving deeper and deeper until I find answers.
To go beyond the stat line, let’s look at some underlying (Statcast) metrics. On the left we see that Leahy has a six pitch assortment, which is it’s own advantage. None of the pitches exhibit extraordinary movement, although that Sweeper sweeps horizontally toward the high end of the average scale, as does the Slider.
These two pitches have plus movement, but I suspect having six pitches he can regularly throw for strikes makes each one of them a little better. First, it is easy for a hitter to eliminate a pitch or sit on one when a 2- or 3- pitch pitcher is having trouble throwing one of his pitches for strikes. Not so easy to do when that pitcher still have 3 more pitches in his arsenal.
Kyle pretty evenly distributes his pitches, also, throwing nothing more than 27% of the time nor less than 13%. His most thrown pitch, like most pitchers, is his FB. 27% is relatively low usage rate, however.
Here on the left, we see some blue (not so hot) and some red (good). Notice that HardHit% in the 2nd percentile. I’m thinking that is a vestige of early season woes. I do notice that FG has his HardHit% at 41% where as Statcast has it at 48%. Why the gap? Are their HardHit calc methods THAT much different?
We will see a chart that shows his rolling average later. HardHit% has steadily declined through the season and is better than average now. In fact, if you look at the table at the top and the chart on the left, you can see evidence that many of the blue lines are lagging his current output. The key question is … is the improvement sustainable, or is the aggregated, full season view more indicative?
On the more positive side, we see that Leahy has a strong GB% and an excellent walk rate. These numbers are in line with his historical norms, such as they are in a relief role.
About that striking change in the June-July timeframe, I got curious, so I went to Fangraphs and graphed out his pitch usage by month and added in hard hit % (shown below). Starting with the HardHit% (the dark blue line), you notice a steady decline as the season goes on, falling below (better than) league average in the June timeframe. I don’t have room for another visual, but I looked and xwOBA follows a very similar trend line. Interestingly, I notice that the downward trend in HardHit% (and xwOBA) follow a similar trajectory to declining reliance on his fastball (the purple line below). Instead, he has added more use of his breaking/off-speed pitches (ie. added more wrinkle to his game) as shown in the red, yellow and blue lines.
The pitch mix influence on HardHit% and xwOBA seems to be correlated. Cause and effect? Let’s continue.
If we look at Stuff+, Leahy’s FB is rated at 93 this year, or below average. That explains why it is getting hit hard and why he is using it less. His Sinker (115) and his Slider (111) Stuff+ ratings are excellent although his Curve (95) and Cutter (93) ratings are below average. I would note that he carries a strong Location+ rating of 105 (overall) and in the aggregate Pitching+ has him as a slightly above average pitcher in 2026 as well as across his career.
Here are some more things to peek at. The chart on the left essentially demonstrates how well Leahy tunnels his various pitches. When a pitcher “tunnels” well, he makes it harder for the hitter to discern spin well enough read what the pitch is going to be by making some or all them appear to spin the same. In this case, Leahy releases his 4-seam and 2-seam (Sinker) fastballs with nearly the same spin direction, but as you can see in the above chart, different movement. I’d personally like to see more differentiation there, but that is nitpicking.
The Sinker has above average rise, but in ways ends up being too much like his four seamer, although independently, the Sinker performs better. Likewise, he tunnels his Change well with the two fastballs, but gets pretty ordinary results, mostly as a result of sub-optimal pitch shape. His change simply doesn’t have enough fade at the end to fool a hitter and the velo difference itself isn’t enough. Notice on the opposite side of the spin cycle sit the sweeper and curveballs. The exact opposite spin on a pitch looks the same to a hitter with sharp eyes (ie. that’s also good tunneling). Guess what? Those pitches, while the spin looks the same out of his hand, the pitches behave radically differently when the get to the plate and they become highly effective. In the end, Sinker-Sweeper-Curve combinations are his bread and butter and show each having positive run value that leans elite. Oddly, his slider is not well disguised, but is still quite effective.
In the end, you have a pitcher with three pretty effective breaking balls (Sweeper, Curve, Slider) and a reasonably good 2-seam Fastball (Sinker). After looking at this, I am a bit surprised about the following:
Order
FIP
xERA
xFIP
K-BB%
K%
BB%
1st time
2.68
3.38
3.31
18.7%
25.8%
7.1%
2nd time
3.19
4.35
3.54
1.5%
21.6%
6.1%
3rd time
6.64
13.19
5.26
3.2%
11.8%
3.6%
Overall
3.51
4.85
3.69
14.7%
21.7%
14.7%
Here I mapped out the same stats as above, but instead of by month, I did by times through the order. Even with a pretty effective four pitch mix, Leahy is largely unable to successfully navigate an order for the third time (beware of SSS – only 19 IP pitched 3rd time through). I suspect some of it has to do with stamina (not being used to a starter’s work load) and perhaps a little bit to do with needing to show more of his breaking pitches early (due to a non-productive fastball) and just flat giving hitters too many looks at them by the third time through. That sinker spin has enough difference that once hitters get some looks, they will pick it up and that will allow them to either sit on it or ignore it, both of which reduce the effectiveness of having a deep arsenal (as it is no longer deep). Time will tell on this one. The fall off in K-BB% the third time through is striking, no?
One last thing I look at…run values for his pitches. This ends up being a little redundant, but there are some interesting tidbits when each pitch is summarized into one value. Why is the 4-seam having so much less run value this year than last? His velo is down more than 1 mph (probably typical in the transition from reliever to starter). Why is his good curveball not quite as good this year? I don’t know. This where comparing Kyle Leahy the reliever with Kyle Leahy the starter becomes challenging. So I note, and wait for more data.
Some questions going forward
So, do we know why his K-BB% has improved so dramatically recently? Is it the refined pitch mix? Will the league catch up to that?
How will his body and his arm react next year after setting new highs in IP and overall workload (pitches, up/downs, steps, etc.)?
Which pitcher is he? The April/May Leahy or the July/August Leahy? Is June the 50th percentile outcome for him? Have we seen floor and ceiling together this season?
Summary
My primary concern with Kyle is his IP and what it will be by season’s end. Pitchers who greatly exceed their prior workloads have a pretty strong tendency to be not as sharp in the following season and subject to greater incidence of injury.
As a pitcher, he seems solid, if unspectacular. His pitch mix, GB% and low walk rate seem like sustainable, steady-eddy results that will likely keep him from being super-volatile, either up or down. I really like how he has improved as this season goes on, and I think it is fair to say he has built on his successful 2025 season very well.
I wonder if we’d like him a lot more if he was doing this at age 24 or 25, than at age 29?
The Warriors’ interest fits a roster still searching for size and secondary playmaking behind an aging core, particularly with Jimmy Butler’s timeline for a full return from his torn ACL still uncertain. Simmons, a three-time All-Star and former No. 1 overall pick, offers exactly that kind of size and playmaking versatility when healthy — even if his recent NBA history has been defined more by absence than availability.
Simmons has not played since April 2025, when he finished that season with the Los Angeles Clippers after being bought out by the Brooklyn Nets, appearing in 51 total games across both stops. In the time since, his focus shifted almost entirely away from basketball — Simmons became the controlling operator of the South Florida Sails, a deep-sea fishing team competing in the Sport Fishing Championship, according to a Men’s Health feature published in June.
Whether Simmons can offer the Kings, or any team, meaningful minutes after more than a year away remains to be seen. For the Warriors, missing out means the search for more help continues elsewhere.
PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 30: Ben Kindel #81 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates against the Carolina Hurricanes at PPG PAINTS Arena on December 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
On Thursday we dove into the Pittsburgh Penguins roster and how it stacked up with the rest of the league on The Athletic’s player tier ranking, and how it showed the team is lacking some younger, proven impact talent.
Today, we are going to take a similar dive into the prospect pool after The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler published his prospect tier list with the help of some NHL scouts and executives. It is a slightly more promising look at the long-term outlook of the franchise, especially in comparison to where the prospect pool was just a couple of years ago.
In this instance the word “prospect” is doing a lot of work because it also includes young players with something of an NHL track record. It’s basically a look at the best young players connected to an organization, both in and out of the NHL.
Overall, the Penguins have seven players make an appearance on Wheeler’s list, including two players (goalie Sergei Murashov and center Ben Kindel) in the Tier 4 “Star” group.
Harrison Brunicke, Rutger McGroarty, Bill Zonnon, Liam Ruck, and Will Horcoff all appear in the Tier 5 “Contributor” section.
In a vacuum, all of that means nothing without any context with the rest of the league, or within the Penguins farm system itself.
If you go back two years, the Penguins had just one prospect appear, and it was also as a Tier 5 prospect (McGroarty).
So just based on raw numbers, going from one prospect on the list, to three prospects, to seven prospects, all in the span of just two years is a strong increase. Especially when two of the young players moved up into a higher tier.
But how does having seven players on the list stack up with the rest of the league? It is not bad.
Team
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Total
Tier 1-2
Chicago
1
0
1
3
6
11
1
San Jose
1
1
5
2
0
9
2
Anaheim
1
0
2
3
3
9
1
Detroit
0
0
0
2
7
9
0
Calgary
0
0
2
2
4
8
0
Nashville
0
0
0
1
7
8
0
Pittsburgh
0
0
0
2
5
7
0
Montreal
0
1
3
2
1
7
1
Utah
0
0
3
3
1
7
0
Vancouver
0
0
2
0
5
7
0
Philadelphia
0
1
1
0
4
6
1
New York Islanders
1
0
0
1
4
6
1
Buffalo
0
0
2
2
2
6
0
Columbus
0
0
1
2
2
5
0
St. Louis
0
0
0
2
3
5
0
Washington
0
0
0
3
2
5
0
Seattle
0
0
1
3
0
4
0
Boston
0
0
1
0
2
3
0
New York Rangers
0
0
1
1
1
3
0
New Jersey
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
Tampa Bay
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
Toronto
0
1
0
0
1
2
1
Winnipeg
0
0
1
0
1
2
0
Edmonton
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
Ottawa
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
Carolina
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Dallas
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Los Angeles
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Minnesota
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Vegas
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Colorado
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Florida
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
There are only 10 total teams in the league with at least seven players on the list.
There are only six that have more than that, and only four that have nine or more. Chicago is at the top of the list with 11, while San Jose, Anaheim and Detroit all have nine.
The one area where the Penguins are lacking, again, is in the Tier 1 and Tier 2 prospects, where they have zero (and also zero in Tier 3). But that is also not something that is completely unique to them. There are only seven teams in the league that have one Tier 1 or Tier 2 prospect, with San Jose leading the way with two of them (Macklin Celebrini and Ivar Stenberg). Chicago (Connor Bedard), Anaheim (Leo Carlsson), Montreal (Lane Hutson), Philadelphia (Porter Martone), New York Islanders (Matthew Schaefer) and Toronto (Gavin McKenna) all have one each.
There are simply not a lot of those guys to go around.
It is also important to keep in mind that not everybody on here is going to pan out. Nor do you need them to given the way NHL rosters are actually constructed. If even three of these seven players become NHL regulars I think you take that as a win. Anything after that is probably a bonus.
It then comes down to which players are in that group, and how far they can climb.
I am confident in saying Kindel looks like an NHL player, and as a center there is a lot of value in him. As I said on Thursday, Murashov becoming a “star” player would change a lot of things for the Penguins outlook in both the short-term and long-term outlooks.
Can Brunicke be a No. 2 or 3 defenseman?
Can one of McGroarty, Horcoff or Ruck become a top-six scorer?
Can Zonnon be a middle-six center?
Could a couple of players here be used as trade bait at some point, along with your collection of draft picks, to try and add somebody more significant that is more proven as a younger, impact NHL player?
All of that is still a work in progress, but it is still nice progress in a very short period of time. Especially when you consider the highest pick the Penguins have had over the past two years is No. 11 overall. It is also another reminder that even though this is not taking on the look of a traditional rebuild that we have become accustomed to over the past decades, the Penguins are very much focussed on the future more than the present. The number of draft picks they have accumulated (both already used and both still ahead, as well as the young NHL players they have focused on in trades) is absolutely the sign of a team that is thinking long-term.
They needed to improve their prospect pool. They are in the process of doing that. They still need to find “the guy” somewhere, but there is progress being made.
Ben Simmons is back in the NBA after agreeing to a one-year deal with the Kings. Simmons was once a promising prospect and will look to revive a basketball career that has gone off the rails in recent seasons. But not everyone is sold on Simmons’ return, especially ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith.
Speaking on “First Take” on Friday morning, Smith did not hold back on his thoughts, going as far as to say that Simmons should be the first player in the NBA to pay the team to let him play in an NBA uniform.
“I’ve seen one of the great, great talents; I’m talking about a dude at 6’10” y’all, this is not an exaggeration,” Smith said. “6’10”, was ambidextrous: the handle, the passing ability, the defensive prowess. This brother could do everything but shoot. He was something special. And somehow, someway, something happened to this dude’s mental and he treated taking a shot as if you asked him to be on the front lines in Afghanistan. It made no sense whatsoever… here’s my question, y’all. How come he isn’t paying Sacramento? He should be paying them to let him play.
“He should be the first player in the NBA that actually pays the team to let him play in an NBA uniform considering the thievery he engaged in for a few years disguised as an NBA player where he was scared of his own damn shadow.”
"[Ben Simmons] should be the first player in the NBA that actually pays the team to let him play in an NBA uniform."@stephenasmith did NOT hold back on Ben Simmons’ return 😭 pic.twitter.com/hnTlF6leVS
Simmons, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, had a strong start to his career with the Philadelphia 76ers despite missing his true rookie season with an injury. Making his debut in the 2017-18 season, Simmons won the league Rookie of the Year Award and was a three-time All-Star from 2019-21 while also earning two NBA All-Defensive Team selections and an All-NBA selection, among other accolades.
But starting with the 2021-22 season, Simmons started to struggle mentally and eventually decided he no longer wanted to play for the 76ers, leading to a trade to the Brooklyn Nets. Unable to regain his form in Brooklyn, Simmons was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers midway through the 2024-25 season, where he remained until he became a free agent.
Simmons then spent all of last season out of basketball but continued to train in the hopes of a comeback. Now getting his comeback shot with the Kings, Simmons will look to prove that he still has what it takes to be a valuable player for an NBA franchise.
Philadelphia, PA - April 24: Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla diagrams a play before the game. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers played in the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 24, 2026. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
There are few phrases in basketball that sound more universally agreeable than “win the margins.” About as agreeable as, “you want players who really know how to put the ball in the basket.”
Of course every team wants to win the margins! Take care of the basketball. Crash the glass. Don’t give away possessions. Make the other team earn everything. Anyone who played organized hoops can probably hear at least one former coach screaming those words.
The Celtics have spent the past few years taking those details increasingly seriously. Last season, with Jayson Tatum returning from a torn Achilles and a roster that didn’t have nearly as much talent or room for error as the championship team did, the philosophy made even more sense.
For the most part, it worked.
Boston won 56 games and finished second in the league in offensive rating. It did so while playing at the slowest pace in basketball, just 95.58 possessions per 48 minutes. That sentence alone should probably prevent me from spending the rest of this article aggressively typing out, PLAY FASTER, over and over.
Slow basketball was not bad basketball. But there’s a more interesting question hiding underneath those devilish numbers.
At what point does controlling the game become trying to control it too much?
The case for control: just look at the scoreboard
Let’s start with the obvious defense of Boston’s approach: the Celtics were really freaking good last year.
A team does not bumble its way into producing a 120.0 offensive rating across 82 games. Even with Tatum missing most of the season, Boston remained one of the NBA’s most efficient offenses.
2025-26 CELTICS (NBA Rank)
First three weeks… W-L 5-7 (20th) Offense: 14th Defense: 13th 3-point%: 27th O Rebounding: 12th D Rebounding: 27th Rebounding: 21st
Since… W-L 51-19 (3rd) Offense: 2nd Defense: 4th 3-point%: 5th O Rebounding: 5th D Rebounding: 3rd Rebounding: 3rd
This was also a team with obvious reasons to value possessions more than its predecessors.
The 2024 Celtics could survive a possession where Jaylen Brown dribbled the ball off his foot, Kristaps Porzingis missed a rotation, or Tatum succumbed to the allure of dribbling, dribbling, then settling for a step-back three. There was so much talent on the floor that individual mistakes frequently disappeared inside the larger machine.
The current Celtics do not have that luxury.
When your regular rotation includes a combination of Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Neemias Queta, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo González, and the rest of the gang, possessions begin to feel a little more precious. That doesn’t mean I don’t believe in those guys to perform (fun fact, I’m actually quite a big fan of the Celtics). It just means the difference between a good possession and a wasted one matters more when the automatic 25 points from Jaylen Brown are now showing up on somebody else’s box score.
Last season, Boston squeezed value wherever it could find it.
The most striking example was on the offensive glass. The Celtics’ offensive rebounding percentage jumped from 28.7% during their championship season to 33.6% last year. That’s winning the margins in its purest form. Miss the shot? Go get another one.
That alone isn’t concerning. Again, second-ranked offense. But other things changed too.
Their effective field goal percentage fell from 57.8% in 2024 to 55.3%. Their assist percentage dropped from 61.3% to 58.5%. Their turnover percentage actually rose slightly, from 12.1% to 12.9%.
If the Celtics are going to spend more time carefully assembling possessions because they’re afraid of wasting them, presumably they should, well, waste fewer of them.
Boston didn’t.
And while its three-point volume declined substantially from the sky-high levels of the previous season, that didn’t suddenly turn the Celtics into a rim-attacking team. At the All-Star break, only 40% of Boston’s shots had come in the paint, the lowest percentage in the NBA, which is a slightly strange outcome for a team that had also stopped attempting threes at a rate that made opposing broadcast crews question the future of the sport.
So where exactly was all this patience taking them? This is where the shot clock of it all becomes interesting.
But get below seven seconds and things changed quickly. Boston’s effective field goal percentage between seven and four seconds fell from 55.8% in 2024 to 48.2% last season. In the final four seconds of the shot clock, the Celtics managed just a 44.7% eFG.
When the pin gets pulled, someone eventually has to throw the grenade. The question is how often Boston was the one quietly holding it for 19 seconds before doing something.
There’s a difference between reaching four seconds on the shot clock because the defense blew up your first two actions and reaching four seconds because you spent the first 18 trying to force the exact matchup you wanted.
Basketball is full of possessions where a team passes up a good shot in pursuit of a great one. It gets trickier when the great shot never arrives and the original good shot is waving at you in the rearview mirror.
What the Philly series told us
For most of the regular season, Boston’s method was successful enough that these concerns remained mostly theoretical.
Then came Games 5, 6, and 7 against Philadelphia. In case you forgot, the Celtics entered Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead. Three games later, their season was over.
The strange part is that the traditional markers of sloppy basketball weren’t really the culprit.
Boston’s turnover percentage actually improved slightly in the series, from 12.9% to 12.6%. Its assist percentage rose from 58.5% during the regular season to 62.2%.
The Celtics were being careful. The possessions were intact. The offense was not.
Sometimes you need tracking data and possession analysis to figure out why an offense failed. Sometimes it shoots 3-for-22 and leaves the murder weapon on the kitchen table.
By Game 6, the offense increasingly looked like one player attacking a matchup while everybody else waited to see how it turned out. Before Game 7, I noted that Boston had climbed to the third-highest isolation frequency among playoff teams as its usual movement and paint pressure disappeared.
Offensive rebounding was the secret sauce of the Celtics posting the 5th best offensive rating in NBA history.
The Sixers held Boston to a 16.7% OReb rate in Game 6, that ranked 87th of 88 games this year.
Looking back, I’m starting to wonder whether “discipline” had quietly morphed into something else. Something yuckier. Because an isolation possession can be incredibly controlled in ways that feel beneficial. You know who has the ball. You know which defender you want involved. Everyone knows where to stand. There is very little chaos.
Unfortunately, defenses like knowing where everyone is standing too.
Maybe the Celtics need a little mess
This is the part that matters for the team walking into training camp in a little less than a month.
Boston has even less reason to expect perfection this season.
Brown is gone (apologies if this is how you’re finding out). We still don’t know exactly what Tatum’s post-Achilles peak will look like. Paul George is 36. And some of the most interesting players on this roster are guys whose usefulness may be tied to letting basketball become a little weird.
Pritchard has always seemed most alive when the game gets a little kooky. We’ve seen him grab a rebound and suddenly decide the Celtics are playing seven seconds or less.
Queta thrives in the part of a possession where the gameplan starts to crumble. Missed shots, loose balls, broken plays. That’s where his size and motor can turn something ugly into two points.
Scheierman’s best possessions often feel like they happen before the opponent has fully logged into the meeting. Catch it, move it, shoot it before the defense settles in.
And González enters the league with physicality and energy that feel much more useful in motion than they would standing in the corner while Boston spends 17 seconds negotiating the terms of a switch. We saw that energy provide a much-needed spark in Game 7 against the Sixers.
None of that means the Celtics should abandon structure and start playing like somebody accidentally set the shot clock to 14.
They still need discipline. Maybe this year more than ever.
But the best version of Boston’s offense may be one that knows precisely what it wants while remaining comfortable with the possibility that the possession will go somewhere else.
That was one of the luxuries of the 2023-24 championship team. Boston had so many good players capable of making decisions that possessions had room to breathe. Tatum might start something, White might continue it, Horford might redirect it and Brown might finish it. The first action didn’t have to work because the offense didn’t treat every possession like a math problem with one correct answer.
The old Celtics had enough talent to survive imperfection.
These Celtics have less margin for error, which makes the desire for greater control completely understandable.
But trying to eliminate mistakes can come with its own cost. Basketball advantages are fleeting. A defender leaning the wrong way for half a second, a big trailing the play, a rebound bouncing somewhere nobody expected. Those moments do not politely wait for the offense to finish organizing itself.
Sometimes the right decision is the imperfect one available right now.
That might be particularly important for a roster featuring players like Pritchard, González, Scheierman, Queta and the rest of the upstart Celtics. They may not give Boston the same overwhelming talent advantage it once had, but they might give the Celtics something messier and slightly less predictable.
Maybe the challenge for Joe Mazzulla this season isn’t figuring out how to make an imperfect team play perfect basketball.
Maybe it’s trusting that a little imperfection is where some of this team’s best basketball might actually live.
