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It was the type of start we’ve come to expect from Aaron Nola.

First inning, we see vintage Nola. Pinpoint command. Two strikeouts. A 1-2-3 opener. The type of beginning that makes you remember why the Phillies signed the veteran right-hander to a seven-year, $172 million contract before the start of the 2024 season.

Then, as if that dominant first inning never happened, it all fell apart.

The second inning starts with a line drive double, then a line drive single, then a ground ball double down the right field line to score a run. Nola records two outs and then allows the hit that turns what could have been an inning with minimal damage into one with a crooked number, a line drive single that scores two.

The third inning would feature two more singles, although neither player scored. In the fourth? A leadoff triple that smacked off the center field wall followed by an out and then another line drive, RBI single to plate the Reds’ fourth run.

After a clean fifth, Nola was done. His final line read: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB and 5 Ks.

This has been the norm. Through 10 starts, his ERA is 6.04. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 4.48. Neither number is good.

These are also not new numbers. In 17 starts last season, the EAR was 6.01. Among 144 starters with at least 100 innings pitched since the beginning of last year, Nola’s 6.02 ERA ranks 141st.

Aaron Nola has been one of baseball’s most ineffective pitchers since the start of the 2025 season.

He is scheduled to make $24.5 million each of the next five seasons, including this one. He is no longer expected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but there should be an expectation that he would not be one of the very worst pitchers in the sport.

There are any number of reasons why Nola is struggling, but it all starts with the fastball.

If Nola is not going to be able to throw his fastball, especially in fastball counts, he’s going to have to learn to feature his secondary pitches exclusively and use his fastball more sparingly. He’s already throwing it less (27.5) than he ever has. Manager Don Mattingly talked about Nola needing to learn to “pitch backwards,” but noted there is no one single flip that can be switched.

Catcher J.T. Realmuto feels Nola is simply not executing his pitches. The problem with Nola is that he absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, leave anything out over the middle of the plate. There is zero margin for error. And now, as noted by On Pattison’s Tim Kelly, it’s possible the new ABS system may be taking away Nola’s penchant for getting balls just off the plate called for strikes in the past.

It’s certainly an interesting thought.

Regardless, Nola is at a crossroads. There is simply no world where he can continue to pitch like this.

The hope is pitching coach Caleb Cotham and Nola can sit down in their pitching lab and cook up some ideas on how to fix Nola’s fastball. That’s easier said than done.

The more likely answer is that Nola may simply be cooked. And it would be understandable if he is, even as he approaches his 33rd birthday next month.

From 2017-2024, no pitcher in baseball threw more innings (1432.2) than Aaron Nola. That is an enormous workload, one that pitchers through the 1980s routinely piled up, but not so much in this era of baseball.

The problem is, there are five years left, counting 2026, on Nola’s free agent contract. So, what are the Phillies’ options?

While the Phils showed a willingness to eat some money by releasing Taijuan Walker last month, he was on the final year of his $18 million a year deal. Nola is due another $98 million after this season. That’s too much for any team to eat.

He cannot be traded. He has full 10-5 trade rights (10 years in the Majors and at least five years with his current team), and not only is it highly unlikely there would be another team willing to deal for him, it’s just as unlikely Nola would agree to a trade.

He cannot be optioned to the minors without his approval. Now, other veteran pitchers who were out of options have agreed to minor league demotions during times of struggle. In 2008, Brett Myers agreed to pitch in AAA for a few weeks to get things right. When he returned, he was a dominant force that helped the Phils win a World Series title. Would Nola be willing to do something similar if things don’t change?

The only other option is to send him to the bullpen. But without any logical replacements in AAA or AA as of yet, and the trade deadline still more than two months away, the only recourse the Phillies have is to send him out there every fifth day and hope he and Cotham can figure something out.

Nola’s stuff is good enough that he should be better than this. A pitcher of his talent, even with all those innings and a declining fastball, should be better than an ERA over 6.00.

Everyone will just have to grin and bear it for now. And hope Nola rights the ship.

Listen to more of my thoughts on Nola as well as the Phillies’ series loss to the Reds on the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, powered by WHYY!

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza spoke with reporters ahead of Thursday's series finale against the Nationals in Washington. D.C.

Here are the highlights...

Kodai Senga starting road back

Senga, who has been on the IL since April 28 while dealing with lumbar spine inflammation, is beginning a rehab assignment.

The right-hander will start for A-level St. Lucie on Friday, with the expectation that he'll throw roughly 50-to-60 pitches.

Before he landed on the IL, the situation with Senga in the rotation had become untenable, with him being unable to pitch more than 3.1 innings in any of his last three starts.

While Senga has been out, the Mets have lost Clay Holmes to a long-term fibula injury, which conceivably changes the calculus regarding the plan for Senga once he's activated.

New York's rotation currently consists of Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta, and Christian Scott, with David Peterson also factoring in every fifth day and rookie Zach Thornton in the rotation on a start-to-start basis. Jonah Tong, who has been with Triple-A Syracuse all season, is in consideration to come up to pitch this weekend against the Marlins in Miami. 

As far as Senga, the Mets could theoretically move him to the bullpen when he returns, but that seems like a very poor fit given his routines. 

A.J. Minter might have just one more hurdle

Minter's return could be imminent.

Following back-to-back appearances for Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday and Wednesday, Minter is set to pitch again for Syracuse on Saturday. If all goes well, Minter could be activated following that outing.

Minter missed most of last season after needing surgery for a torn left lat muscle.

His return would give the Mets another option at the back end of the bullpen, and could potentially put the roster spot of the struggling Craig Kimbrel in jeopardy.

Jared Young feeling good

Young, who is in the middle of a rehab assignment with Syracuse, feels good physically, with Mendoza noting that it is now a matter of getting his timing down.

The left-handed hitter excelled for New York earlier this season, hitting .350/.391/.450 in 23 plate appearances over 11 games.

At the 2025 Trade Deadline, one of the Yankees’ primary acquisitions was for a defense-first third baseman. Ryan McMahon, who had spent the past nine seasons with the Colorado Rockies, was known as one of the game’s finest defenders at the hot corner, one that could hit enough to get by in the majors, culminating in his first All-Star selection in 2024.

I will put my hand up: I liked adding RyMac to the fold. His glove gave him a solid floor, and he had enough pop with the bat to float around league-average and contribute a big hit now and then. Now, a good chunk into his first full season in the Bronx, it’s clear that something is not working for McMahon at the plate. He’s not putting the ball in play with much authority, and the basepaths are proving difficult to reach in 2026. He was never a bat-first guy, but at third base, at least some pop at the plate is expected, and it simply isn’t coming for the Yankees.

It took McMahon 17 games to get his first extra-base hit of the season, which in all fairness, was a clutch homer against the Royals. The pressure to produce that sort of hit is hammered home by Michael Kay’s “Ohhhh, did he need that!”

The issue arises in the fact that this hit did not really open the floodgates for McMahon, as he’s only amassed a handful of extra-base hits in his 137 plate appearances to this point. Now, all homers or doubles count the same, but you’ll notice that this homer wasn’t exactly a no-doubter. It was a wall-scraper the other way into left field. Unfortunately for McMahon this season, that seems to be all that he can buy.

Don’t mistake this chart for for Isaac Paredes’, these are all of Ryan McMahon’s extra-base hits this season — three doubles and four homers. Notably, all but one of these hits are to the opposite field, and rather extremely so. Not only has it been difficult for the Yankee third baseman to turn up the slug, but when he does, he’s not exactly doing himself any favors with a spray chart like this.

A pulled fly ball is the best category of hit a batter can ask for, something that McMahon cannot seem to find in his bat for 2026, and it’s clearly reflecting in his numbers. His 62 wRC+ would be an easy career worst since becoming a gular in 2018, as he’s reaching base at a miniscule .259 clip, strikes out 30 percent of the time, and is walking less than he ever has in his career. 2026 has been a rough go for McMahon at the plate, and his lack of production at the plate has necessitated the need for improvement at the hot corner for New York. Manager Aaron Boone hasn’t hesitated to play righty platoon partner Amed Rosario against same-handed pitching on occasion during McMahon’s deeper slumps.

For McMahon specifically, the production we’re seeing is a particular downgrade for him. Although his premier attributes have never come with the bat, the Yankees can and should reasonably expect a little pop from their third baseman. Instead of the guy who’s posted five consecutive 20-homer seasons, the Yankees have seen this version of McMahon. His production is substandard for anywhere on the diamond, but when considering the position he occupies, and the fact that he has been a consistent contributor for the better part of a decade, the trend becomes all the more troubling.

McMahon still hits the ball fairly hard (80th percentile in average exit velocity), and does so at a good rate (81st percentile hard-hit rate). But it’s clear that this sort of output is not all created equal, as his extra-base hits are fine in isolation, but they become part of a larger, more worrisome trend in the big picture. A full rebound with the bat feels less and less likely as time goes on, but nothing is out of question, as McMahon at least has a fine track record to back it up. But, as things stand, 2026 has been full of far more questions than answers for McMahon and the Yankees.

The Washington Nationals made a somewhat surprising move in the bullpen. With Clayton Beeter coming back from the IL, the Nats decided to option PJ Poulin to Triple-A. On the surface, this move seems pretty odd. Poulin leads the Nats in appearances with 23 and has posted a solid 2.91 ERA.

However, when you look under the hood, things make more sense. Despite Poulin’s low ERA, the underlying metrics agreed that he was getting lucky. Poulin’s xERA and xFIP are both 5.46, while his FIP is 5.51. You have to believe that the Nats front office was looking at those numbers when they decided to send Poulin down.

Frankly, if you watch Nats games on a consistent basis, you do not need those fancy stats to tell you that Poulin was flirting with disaster. Poulin rarely had a shutdown outing and was consistently dealing with traffic on the bases. He also issued 14 walks in 21.2 innings, which is not ideal for a guy without overwhelming stuff.

The strikeout to walk rate is also something the Nats considered when sending him down. For the season, Poulin has 6.65 K/9 and 5.82 BB/9. Having nearly as many walks as strikeouts is not a recipe for long term success. Last season, Poulin actually did show some swing and miss stuff with 9.85 K/9. However, the whiffs have not been a big part of his game this season.

This season it just felt like Poulin did not really trust his stuff as much. He was constantly nibbling and trying to throw the perfect pitch instead of just attacking guys. Maybe that was due to a slight drop in velocity forcing him to try and be perfect. Poulin usually got out of the jams he put himself in, but the lefty was putting himself in bad spots too often.

Interestingly, I thought Poulin was at his best this year when he was opening games. He was an opener 5 times, and posted a 1.42 ERA with just one walk in 6.1 innings. However, when Poulin was put in higher leverage spots, he really struggled to throw strikes.

Another factor here is Richard Lovelady, who has a lot of similarities to Poulin. It felt like Lovelady started to eat into Poulin’s role. Both are lower slot lefties who rely on funk rather than velocity. Like Poulin, Lovelady allows his fair share of baserunners, but he can get ground balls and whiffs when he needs them more consistently than Poulin.

I do not want to knock Poulin too much while he is down here. He is still a solid arm and is very likely to be back in the big leagues at some point. There are going to be injuries and guys who start to struggle. When that happens, Poulin is going to be an arm the Nats will turn to again. He just needs to attack hitters some more and get back to doing what he did at the end of last season.

As for Clayton Beeter, it will be interesting to see what his role is. Beeter also has walk issues, but has dynamic swing and miss stuff. He was the de facto closer at the beginning of the season, but it feels like Gus Varland has taken that mantle. Beeter will be in the mix for high leverage looks, but I do not think he will be the big dog in the bullpen the way he was to start the year.

 We just need to see more strikes from him. Beeter has the best raw stuff in this bullpen, but he can be erratic. However, when Beeter is on, he can be absolutely lights out. Beeter looked good on his rehab assignment in AAA, making two scoreless appearances. At his best, Beeter can be a real weapon.

The Nats are going to have to make another bullpen decision soon as well. Cole Henry is also on the mend, and has looked good during his rehab assignment. If he gets his spot in the bullpen back, who will the Nats send down? Paxton Schultz seems like an obvious candidate, but I wonder if Mitchell Parker could be in trouble. With Andrew Alvarez sticking in the big leagues, can the Nats afford to carry three long relievers?

There are some interesting conversations to be had with this bullpen. For the first time in a while, it feels like the Nats have a lot of options. Sure, none of the options are amazing, but they have plenty of guys who have shown they can have success in the big leagues if they are on their game. I am curious to see how the bullpen shakes out as we go through this season.

Some of the plans for the Dodgers’ bullpen went out the window in an unceremonious fashion quite early on, but the unit continues to function at a high level. Among other things, that’s down to the emergence of Kyle Hurt as one of the top setup men in the National League—a big statement for a young pitcher whose not only role, but mere presence on the big league roster this season, was undefined heading into spring training.

After striking out 12 hitters in 7.1 innings in spring training, Hurt impressed but ultimately couldn’t land a spot on the Opening Day roster. It wasn’t until Ben Casparius hit the shelf that Hurt joined the club, and firstly, amidst Edwin Díaz’ injury, and also partially just through his own merit, Hurt began climbing up the leverage ladder in the bullpen.

Yet another success story of the Dodgers utilizing their vast resources to work the trade market in their favor, a former Marlins farmhand, Hurt relies on a four-seam fastball that hurts hitters. He throws it over 60% of the time with a 22.0% SwSt%, one that puts him in the 97th percentile. As it is the case with pitchers that generate a lot of swing-and-miss action on their four-seamers, Hurt throws it upstairs quite often, relying on batters swinging underneath it, and so far in 2026, they’re 6 for 32 on the pitch with 12 strikeouts and just one extra-base hit. To complement that heavy four-seamer, Hurt has a changeup. While generally it’d be reasonable to express some concern about how the splits would translate against same-handed batters having the changeup as your primary off-speed pitch, Hurt is able to find success against righties and lefties.

Something that’s appealing about what Hurt is doing now, but more importantly, when it comes to the sustainability of his success, is that the tall right-hander is attacking the zone with everything he throws. He’s not nibbling around the edges too much. Hurt throws his changeup in the zone (43.6%) more than the MLB average (33.9%), and it’s not as if he is thriving because hitters have been passive and will eventually adjust. On the contrary, the swing rate against Hurt’s changeup (60.0%) is well above Hurt’s (45.6%).

Attacking the zone is so important because if you can accomplish that while still being able to generate the constant swing-and-misses that Hurt has been able to, you find yourself as one of only four relievers in baseball with a strikeout rate of over 30% and a walk rate below 5%.

The recent series against the Padres, particularly the matchups against Mason Miller, showed how oftentimes when dealing with the elite relievers, you’re at the mercy of a momentary loss of command from them. All of the threat and action that the talented Dodgers offense generated against Miller basically came from him pitching against himself more so than anything else. Obviously, Hurt still has a long way to go. We’re evaluating a sample size of 14 innings, but out of that, the sky is the limit with his tools. It’s no surprise that before the start of the year, when we asked you here who was the reliever you were most excited about seeing called up to join the Dodgers bullpen in 2026, Hurt won it quite easily. And to think that a key chunk of this bullpen consists of a couple of players acquired for the services of Dylan Floro some years ago. You could not ask for anything more.

After throwing two simulated innings yesterday in a bullpen session, injured Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has declared himself free of the shoulder inflammation that landed him on the IL. That’s great! What’s less great is that he also declared that his mechanics are out of whack. Crochet will take a few days off, throw another bullpen over the weekend, and likely be out until early June as he works out the kinks. “I feel like everyone that goes on the IL, it’s always a little longer than they want it to be. I’m not exempt from that,” he said. “It’s definitely taken longer than I had hoped it would when I initially went on the IL, but it’s part of it. Right now, I’m just trying to be a good cheerleader.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Barring any further injuries, Crochet’s return will likely mean that someone is going to get bounced from the Red Sox rotation. If the Sox base things purely on performance, that person would unquestionably be Brayan Bello, who, after two promising appearances in a bulk role following an opener, once again struggled as a conventional starter his last time out. Manager Chad Tracy said the Sox may go back to the opener strategy for Bello, but it will be decided on a case-by-case basis, depending in large part on the health and availability of the arms in the bullpen. (Justin Turpin, WEEI)

When Garrett Crochet does return, will he return to an improved offense? Jarren Duran broke out in a big way in Kansas City over the past three days, providing some hope that Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu might finally get some help in the lineup. “I’m trending in the upward direction, and I’m just trying to stay simple and do stuff to help the team win,” said Duran. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

But his bat wasn’t the only thing Duran was handling well last night, he also made a great catch at the wall. “I’m willing to get hurt to make a play for my pitchers,” he said. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)

It’s great that Duran’s willing to go all out on defense, but getting hurt wouldn’t exactly help the Red Sox at this point. And, speaking of getting hurt, Trevor Story still hasn’t decided on whether he’s getting surgery, and seems to be doing a little opinion shopping in the meantime:

With the way he was playing, an extended absence by Trevor Story wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. But it would be nice to get Roman Anthony back in the lineup, even though he may have been asked to do too much for this Red Sox team this year. (Chad Finn, Boston Globe)

Back in 2022-2023, the pitching matchup in tonight’s Braves-Marlins series finale would’ve been heralded far and wide. Things are a little different these days, but that doesn’t mean that either team will have an easy path to a victory. The Braves can no longer lose this series after yesterday’s victory, but they can indeed still win it, and that’s what they’ll try to do as Spencer Strider faces off against Sandy Alcantara in Miami.

From 2021-2023, Alcantara was not just a workhorse, but a dominant hurler. He pitched 619 frames across 93 starts in that span, going from 4.3 fWAR in 2021 to 5.9 in 2022, before wearing down into something worse but still above-average in 2023 (3.0 fWAR). Part of that wearing down was his elbow ligament making a sad face late in 2023, as he missed most of September of that season, and all of 2024, with Tommy John Surgery and the associated recovery. Alcantara’s 2025 comeback campaign was a mixed bag at best — the righty had a career 78/90/94 line through 2023 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), including a 73/82/85 line during the ‘21-’23 span mentioned. He stumbled around to a 126/103/101 line last year, giving the Marlins durability (31 starts) but less in the way of length (“just” 174 2/3 innings) or effectiveness.

In 2026, things are better for him in some ways, but not others. He’s once again pitching more deeply into games — 63 2/3 innings in ten starts — on the order of what he managed in 2021 and 2023 (but not 2022, where he averaged over seven frames per outing in his Cy Young-winning campaign). His ERA- and FIP- look better, both at 86… but his xFIP- is at 102. He’s running a career-low strikeout rate of just 16.9 percent at the moment, but riding high due to a teeny-tiny HR/FB.

He’s also been somewhat inconsistent in decently-long stretches. He had three nice outings to start 2026, including a complete game shutout of the White Sox, but then gave up four homers (the only four homers hit off him so far this year) in two starts, part of a bigger six-start stretch where he had a very blah 150/119/123 line. But, he then bounced back to dismantle the playing-very-good-ball Rays last Saturday, with a 6/0 K/BB ratio in what was arguably his best start since coming back from surgery, and perhaps his best start since winning the Cy Young Award back in 2022.

The Braves and Alcantara have a ton of history, as he’s made 16 starts against them in his career. His aggregate line includes a 3.99 FIP and 4.38 xFIP in 100 2/3 innings versus the Braves, which is notably worse than his performance overall. Even last year, facing a moribund team while perhaps still recovering himself, Alcantara’s performance wasn’t dominant: one good start, one okay start, and one where the Braves, diminished as they were, roughed him up.

On the flip side, the Braves will have Spencer Strider vying to suppress the Miami attack in the way that Chris Sale was able to on Wednesday. Strider’s three starts so far this season have also been a mixed bag: a struggle in his season debut at Coors Field, an evisceration of the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and then, most recently, a meh start against the Red Sox with a 4/3 K/BB ratio where he lasted 5 1/3 innings. On the season, Strider’s line is an appropriately-silly-for-three starts 60/90/101. I guess that makes this a pretty fitting matchup with Alcantara, as a battle of starters-that-are-currently-fortunate-to-have-a-low-HR/FB and who were once dominant, but are now working their way back to something more than mid-rotation candidates.

Strider has five career outings against the Marlins, though two were relief appearances in 2022. He completely obliterated them in two separate starts in 2023, and had a weirdly meh outing where he nonetheless went seven frames against them last season. There wasn’t much doubt about this, but Strider’s effectiveness in this one is going to be based on his own mechanics rather than any shared history.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, May 21, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Location: loanDepot (Stupid Capitalization) Park, Miami, FL

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Cubs, as you know, have had multiple pitching injuries.

That list got a bit longer Wednesday when Edward Cabrera left the game with a blister. Fortunately, that’s not usually a serious injury. Maybe he misses a start, maybe not.

The Cubs are not alone in having many rotation starters injured. Look at the Blue Jays, for example — and Toronto has had a rough time of it, currently sitting tied for third place in the AL East, 11.5 games out of first place at 22-27. At least the Cubs are still well over .500 at 29-21.

In the comments in the recap to Wednesday’s debacle, BCB reader D98 reminded everyone that the Brewers acquired a starting pitcher early in the season last year (April 7, to be exact) who turned out to be pretty good.

That guy was Quinn Priester, who in 20 games for the Pirates (14 starts) in 2023-24, had posted a 6.46 ERA, 1.585 WHIP and allowed 19 home runs in 94.2 innings. He’d been so bad that the Pirates traded him to the Red Sox for Nick Yorke, a bench player who currently has a .555 OPS in 27 games for Pittsburgh. The Red Sox gave up on Priester after one start and sent him to Milwaukee for two minor leaguers, neither of whom has played above Double-A.

Priester — who was a former No. 1 draft pick — turned out to be really good in Milwaukee, posting a 3.32 ERA, 1.239 WHIP and 13 wins in 29 games (24 starts). He’s currently on the IL, rehabbing from thoracic outlet syndrome issues.

It’s my thought that no one could have possibly known Priester would be that good when he was acquired. In fact, after his first five Brewers appearances he had a 5.79 ERA, which included getting absolutely pounded by the Cubs in this game.

Obviously, he turned things around and was a key piece for Milwaukee, including in the postseason.

So now I’m asking you: Can you identify someone like this, under the radar, who the Cubs might be able to acquire now? Any pitcher with any sort of reputation (Freddy Peralta, for example) isn’t going to be available in mid-May.

And don’t say “Well, I don’t have access to the Cubs’ internal scouting reports.” That’s pretty obvious.

I’m asking you to speculate, think about guys who might turn it around if given a chance, who the Cubs could get right now for a couple of prospects similar to the ones the Brewers sent to Boston for Priester.

Basically, here’s a discussion topic for an off day. Have at it.