How much do good bullpens correlate with winning teams in 2026? St Louis Cardinal fans want to know…

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - JULY 6: José Fermín #15 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits an RBI single against the Milwaukee Brewers in the third inning at Busch Stadium on July 6, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) | Getty Images

I was already leaning towards writing about this before the Brewers series, but after last night’s game, it really hammered the point home. So, through the lens of my own bullpen rankings, I will compare which teams are really thriving with a light’s out, effective bullpen, and which teams are bleeding wins because of theirs. In 2026, baseball continues to evolve, and I have a feeling that bullpens are more important than ever. It could end up that I reveal teams wasting resources on amazing bullpens, or maybe all the best teams will have the best bullpens; we shall see…

I’m going to do this in an odd sort of way, using something I am going to call Correlation Points. I am looking at team reliever stats on fangraphs, with a variety of different stats, including rate stats and fWAR.

There are 12 teams with a bullpen ERA under 4, and those teams are actually 3.8 ERA or lower. The rest of MLB is over 4 ERA. There are 10 MLB bullpens with an ERA 4.0-4.5. Then, the worst, most neglected bullpens are over 4.50 ERA, with only a handful of MLB bullpens performing at 5.0 ERA or worse. I am using a three tier system, assigning 3 CP (correlation points, remember?) to tier 1 teams, 1.5 CP to the mid-tier teams, and .5 CP to the worst teams. But wait, what about the absolutely elite bullpens? Don’t they mean something? Only 4 MLB bullpens have an ERA under 3.5. I’ll go ahead and assign those teams 3.5 CP. It ended up convenient that by my ratings sytem, the 4 best bullpens weighed out the 4 worse bullpens as the outliers. Instead of half a CP, the 4 worst get absolutely no Correlation Points. And that’s how I’m doing ERA.

Including xERA is a way to include a balance to the flukiness of ERA. I’ll again be assigning 3 CP to teams with a rate under 4.0. No bonus points this time because the teams are more tightly packed. In this case, the middle teams with an xERA under 4.40 will get 2 CP, and the worst bullpens of MLB will get .5 CP.

And then of course, you should look at it from a Fielding Independent Pitching perspective, normalizing and leveling the playing field when it comes to fielding/defense masking the effectiveness of a bullpen. I’ll use the same system for xERA here. Under 4.0 FIP = 3 CP. Mid teams get 2 CP, and the worst bullpens only get .5 CP. I’m going to skip using xFIP because you don’t want your bullpen giving up a lot of home runs and then trying to normalize that.

And because it’s good if your bullpen can eat a bunch of innings while also performing well, I’ll simply be using fWAR totals as correlation points, so the most valuable bullpens by counting stat WAR will have quite an effect on my Correlation Points system. But not all winning bullpens are used frequently, so I want to level that playing field by not just using fWAR. I want to see what teams have good bullpens across the board.

After I totaled the Bullpen Correlation Points, I listed teams’ Winning Percentage and then assigned Record Correlation Points, mirroring the Bullpen CP totals but assigning according to record. I was then able to tell what percentage of teams records match up with the performance of their 2026 bullpen.

Tiering MLB Bullpens

Tiers by ERA

  • Elite Tier: Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers
  • Top Tier
    SEA
    NYM
    SDP
    MIA
    TEX
    CLE
    TOR
    LAD
  • Mid Tier
    CHC
    DET
    ARI
    CHW
    STL
    BAL
    PHI
    HOU
    TBR
    PIT
  • Bad Bullpens
    SFG
    LAA
    CIN
    COL
  • Dumpster Fire
    ATH
    WSN
    KCR
    MIN

Tiers by xERA

  • Top Tier
    NYY
    SDP
    PHI
    MIL
    ATL
    LAD
    NYM
    MIA
    TOR
    DET
    BAL
  • Mid Tier
    HOU
    BOS
    CLE
    ARI
    TEX
    SEA
    LAA
    CHW
    ATH
    PIT
    SFG
  • Bottom Tier
    TBR
    MIN
    COL
    CHC
    STL
    KCR
    WSN
    CIN

Tiering Bullpens by FIP

  • Top Tier
    SEA
    ATL
    PHI
    NYY
    LAD
    MIL
    MIA
    NYM
    BOS
    SDP
    CLE
    TOR
    BAL
  • Mid Tier
    ARI
    TEX
    DET
    STL
    CHW
    PIT
    COL
    SFG
  • Bottom Tier
    HOU
    ATH
    LAA
    TBR
    MIN
    CHC
    WSN
    CIN
    KCR

Just to give you an idea on how these rankings can fluctuate depending on what stat we are using. Notice how the Cardinals bullpen is either mid-tier, or bottom tier by xERA. Compare and contrast teams, if you’d like.

Now, for the Bullpen Correlation Points! The more CP, the better the bullpen across all categories, also including bullpen fWAR.

Tiering MLB Bullpens with Bullpen Correlation Points

  • Elite Tier: Atlanta, Milwaukee, San Diego! All are among the best across the board using all major stat categories. The cream of the bullpen crop.
  • Top Tier: only a small step down. If your favorite thing in baseball is a very effective bullpen to shut things down for the starting pitcher or just keep you in the game, you might want to be a fan of the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Marlins, or Phillies, if that’s your thing (a second favorite team, of course!)
  • Mid Tier: The mid bullpens are ones like the Red Sox, Guardians, Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Pirates, Rockies, or Astros. These ‘pens get the job done well enough. You might have noticed, none of these teams are among the very best in Winning %. The best you can hope for in this mid tier is a team like the Mariners, or Guardians, two teams who have the same record just above .500. Which is good enough in their divisions, strangely enough.
  • Bottom Tier: The Cardinals bullpen is the best of the bottom tier, but what has weighed them down a bit is their low fWAR total. They are probably a more mid tier team, hopefully, but for now I’ll just have to rank them as among the bottom of the bullpens. The Giants, Angels, first place Rays, Athletics, Cubs, Twins, and Reds join them. The Reds of course have a much worse bullpen than the Cardinals, but let this be a cautionary tale that the Cardinals deserve some bullpen help!
  • Dumpster Fires: The Nationals and Royals bullpens are just dumpsters filled with napalm on a hot summer day. Fans of these teams must turn off the TV once the starter is out, unless they are up by 7+ runs or something.

And now for the fun part! Do bullpens really matter a lot? How much do bullpens correlate with a team’s winning percentage? Bullpens after all are almost like bench players, in many ways. The pitchers don’t play as much overall, and are a bit of a hodge podge motley crew of journeymen and prospects. What I found may surprise!

  • I was surprised to find SEVEN teams had a DIRECT correlation between their record and bullpen. By that I mean their bullpen correlation points exactly matched their ranking according to their winning percentage.
  • 11 teams had either a direct or a very strong correlation between bullpen effectiveness and wins and losses.
  • Over half the teams had a close correlation between bullpen and winning. That’s sort of impressive, all things considered.
  • 21 teams had some correlation between their bullpen’s goodness and their record. I think that says a bullpen is pretty important.
  • Only three teams appeared to have really no correlation between their bullpen and their win/loss record. Can you guess who they are? The Mets really damn good bullpen cannot save them from whatever is happening in NY… while the Cubs and especially the Rays cannot be dragged down by a bad bullpen. I don’t want to see how good the Cubs would be with a bullpen.
  • The Cardinals are another team that is outplaying its bullpen, saved by defense and some hitting. There is only a weak correlation between the team’s bullpen and its record. The flip side of the coin is the Padres having an absolute top tier bullpen, while playing under .500 baseball. One of the best bullpens cannot save them. Same with over half of the AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles are floundering despite effective bullpens.
  • Teams with a direct correlation between bullpen effectiveness and record: Brewers elite ‘pen means a top tier team (while they do everything well), Marlins bullpen making them a contender, Rangers and Diamondbacks midrange bullpens making them around .500, and the Athletics bottom tier bullpen keeping them towards the lower reaches of MLB.
  • I don’t think the Braves would be as good as they are without a top tier bullpen. Playoff ready teams the Dodgers and Yankees have bullpens that are not preventing them from winning many games.
  • The Mets should probably trade away most of their bullpen to make their team better but I have no idea how they could do that.

Given how tough a bullpen can be to pin down, I think 21 teams having some kind of correlation between their record and their bullpen is interesting enough to draw a conclusion that maybe teams shouldn’t skimp on their reliever corps. A good to elite bullpen is very difficult to assemble, but there is some evidence that you shouldn’t blow off the assembly of it. Sure, you will have freak teams like the Rays that can win a lot despite an ineffective bullpen (and to a much lesser extent, the Cardinals), but overall bullpens might be a little underrated.

1992 Music Part 2

So last week I ran out of time and only got through 15 of the 30 (non heavy metal) albums I had selected for review. I am nearly out of time this week, but I will howl at the moon a bit tonight and reveal 15 more! Night owl here…

  • Medicine – ‘Shot Forth Self Living’ I would describe Medicine as USA’s answer to the UK’s My Bloody Valentine, even more distorted and over the top but different, in some ways also more mellow. A shoegaze genre classic from the band that would later appear on the Crow soundtrack and gain many more fans.
  • Boredoms – ‘Wow2’ the Boredoms (perhaps one of the most uniquely captivating bands of all time, or at least from Japan) also released the more well known ‘Pop Tatari’ in 1992, but I have enjoyed Wow2 even more! You cannot go wrong either way if you love avant garde rock, experimental music, and weirdo punk.
  • Lush – ‘Spooky’ another album of shoegazer goodness, but also a bit dreampop and even goth or punk at times, the UK’s Lush made a splash in 1992 with Spooky, a really fun but dark album. Top song picks: Tiny Smiles, Superblast!, Laura, and Starlust.
  • Gang Starr – ‘Daily Operation’ all time hiphop classic, file somewhere between conscientious rap and gangster rap, with strong hiphop production elements. Guru and Premier at their best!
  • Thinking Plague – ‘In This Life’ totally mental, super advanced prog rock of the highest order. Only a few preview tracks on their bandcamp, so you’re just going to have to buy this one. I did years ago, and trust me, it’s worth it!
  • Pete Rock & CL Smooth – ‘Mecca and the Soul Brother’ stumbled across this excellent early 90s hiphop album and I think you should listen to it. It’s certainly going into my hiphop collection!
  • Ruins – ‘Burning Stone’ another highly original band from Japan, the contrast between Ruins and the Boredoms being that Ruins was a duo on this album, and are much more tightly controlled and focused on the music genre known to humans as Zeuhl. A band like no other. I have had the fortune of seeing them multiple times in Chicago. Flat out astounding!
  • Stone Temple Pilots – ‘Core’ I had this tape before they blew up, and before anyone else I knew. They were being promoted at some mall record store, on an end cap. They were opening for Megadeth so I gave it a try, and loved it! And they were even better live. That didn’t matter to the Megadeth fans though, they booed at the end. I thought it was funny, and it was my first concert. STP’s debut album!
  • Meat Beat Manifesto – ‘Satyricon’ Jack Dangers and MBM began to move away from noisy industrial hiphop party music to something a bit more nuanced… However, this album still retains much of that early Meat Beat Manifesto energy and is perhaps their most signature release, bridging the band into new sonic territories.
  • Frontline Assembly – ‘Tactical Neural Implant’ similar to MBM, Frontline Assembly delivered an all time industrial dance classic in 1992, all the while being more futuristic sounding than just about anyone else at the time outside of NIN and Skinny Puppy.
  • Showbiz and A.G. – ‘Runaway Slave’ and another classic hiphop release from 1992! Definitely adding this one to my hiphop collection as well.
  • Thinking Fellers Union Local 282 – ‘Mother Of All Saints’ I may end up moving this up the list further some day *same goes for Showbiz and AG* but for now, let me just say I’m intrigued and I want to hear more! Bandcamp link, go buy a lesser known bands tunes! Good stuff.
  • High Rise – ‘Dispersion’ Japan really exploded onto the scene in 1992 at least in my mind, with releases by the Boredoms and Ruins, but High Rise may have been the most impressive in the intensity department, taking psyche rock to new levels and loudness, soloing all over the place with no fucks given. One of the louder live shows I have scene, incredible. The most in-your-face stoner rock possible. (bandcamp)
  • Naked City – ‘Grand Guignol’ and ‘Leng Tch’e’ bandcamp and youtube links, respectively. I couldn’t choose just one album from 1992 Naked City by John Zorn. Grand Guignol includes covers of 20th century avant classical composers while Leng Tch’e is a longform sludge metal/drone release. Neither sound alike or like the previous Naked City album. All three albums completely necessary.
  • Steven Jesse Bernstein – ‘Prison’ little known “rapper” Bernstein reminds us of one of the roots of hiphop here, spoken word and beat poetry to a sampler collage. A piece of art melding a uniquely crafted vision, and one of the hidden gems I’ve unearthed doing this project. You won’t even remotely understand what I’m talking about until you hear this masterpiece.
  • Ween – ‘Pure Guava’ part of Ween’s early evolution into what they would later become, I’d describe this as one of my favorite Ween albums but I pretty like all of them, so I’m not sure what to say other than that Ween occupy their own corner of the music world and this is them becoming who they are.
  • Screaming Trees – ‘Sweet Oblivion’ and to round out my 1992 picks for music listening, I don’t think any list about 1992 is complete without Sweet Oblivion. Stacked with classic songs that conjure up that time period rather effectively. Music as time machine, no need to invent one. I could listen to the song “Nearly Lost You There” every day of the week. “Dollar Bill” is another classic track. The whole album is stacked, really.

And last but not least I actually have the complete 1992 (non heavy metal) playlist ready! Link here

1992 Heavy Metal Playlist next week! At some point I’ll just list a bunch of years youtube playlists.

Thanks for reading all that, if you did! You rock. Special all star break edition next week… stay tuned.

A Celtics fan’s survival guide to optionality

Philadelphia, PA - April 30: A Boston Celtics fan sits in the stands by himself before the game. The Boston Celtics played the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 30, 2026. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

Celtics fans have been dropped into the wilderness.

One minute, Jaylen Brown was one of the defining Celtics of the last decade. The next, he was headed to Philadelphia, Paul George was coming back, two first-round picks were handed over like Advil, and everyone was being asked to find comfort in a word that sounds like it was created inside a front office think tank.

Optionality.

That is where the Celtics live now. Brad Stevens explained the logic Monday. The Celtics wanted more flexibility, more depth, and more ways to build the next version of the team. The new CBA made life harder. Two supermax players eating up that much cap space made the path narrower. Paul George’s contract is shorter. The picks could matter.

For now, Celtics fans are stuck in the fog between the trade and whatever comes next. In situations like these, experts recommend staying put, keeping warm, and resisting the urge to identify every snapping twig as the sound of another move coming.

So grab your emergency whistle, your emotional support No. 7 jersey and a printed copy of the second apron rules you definitely understand.

This is the Celtics fan’s survival guide to optionality.

Stay calm. Panic burns energy.

The first rule of surviving optionality is simple: do not burn all your energy before the team takes the court.

I know, easier said than done. The Celtics have dropped us into the middle of July with a backpack full of pick protections, Paul George fit questions, depth expectations, and one granola bar labeled “Trust me. Love, Brad.” Naturally, the first instinct is to start running in circles until you either find civilization or pass out next to a tree stump muttering, “70% of the cap.”

Resist that urge.

The Summer League Celtics have not even played yet, while the real Celtics are still months from taking the floor. Paul George has not missed a regular-season game in green. The 2028 pick has not revealed itself as treasure, kindling, or a weird rock Brad convinced everyone to carry because it might become useful later.

There will be time to panic. That is what October is for.

For now, conserve your energy. Sip water. Build a small fire. Do not start eating random berries from your backyard when you see the Sixers posting Jaylen Brown highlights on Twitter.

That way lies danger.

Every mention of “flexibility” may still make you want to hop on a moose’s back and whisper, “Take me away from all of this.” Fair. But when you’re lost in the woods, you don’t sprint into the fog because you saw what might be a road. You stop, breathe, and take inventory.

The Celtics chose uncertainty.

That means we must learn how to survive inside it.

Two is one, one is none.

In the wilderness, redundancy keeps you alive. One flashlight breaks, you better have another. One fire starter gets soaked, you better have matches. One person says Luke Kornet is irreplaceable, you better have a Neemias Queta ready to pull out of your backpack.

That appears to be the Celtics’ new operating theory.

For years, the survival plan was simple: when in doubt, trust the Jays. Tatum and Brown were the tent, compass, first-aid kit, bear spray, and the guy who insisted he knew how to hang food from a tree. Everything else was built around them.

That starter pack worked for a long time. After all, Banner 18 is not imaginary. It still hangs there, despite the last week making everyone feel like they dreamt it.

But Stevens looked at the new NBA landscape and decided the Celtics were carrying too much weight in one part of the pack. Too much salary. Too much usage. Too few ways to maneuver if the trail ahead got blocked.

So Boston traded one huge answer for a pile of smaller ones.

Paul George. Future firsts. Second-round sweeteners. Shorter money. More flexibility. More pressure on Pritchard, White, Hauser, Scheierman, Gonzalez, Walsh, Queta, Harper Jr., Robinson, and whoever else gets handed a flashlight and is told, “Get us the hell out of here.”

That is the bet.

Brad Stevens didn’t try to tell us that one player will replace what Jaylen gave them. He told us that with enough smaller pieces, used the right way, the Celtics can replace the version of the team that had started to feel stale and boxed in.

That might be smart, or it could be a front office TED Talk with sneakers on.

Either way, this is the shelter they built.

Everybody get inside before it rains.

Leaves of three, let the overreactions be.

Every survival guide comes with a warning about poisonous plants.

Here’s yours: some post-Jaylen thoughts may look edible. Do not be fooled.

The first is the Payton Pritchard-Jalen Brunson comparisons, which already feels like something Celtics fans are going to find growing behind a log and immediately put in their mouths.

Resist the temptation!

Pritchard can (and should) become more important without becoming Brunson. He can start, create more, bomb threes in transition, irritate opposing guards, talk like every defender in the league called him small at recess, and still not become the best player on a championship team.

Another poisonous plant to avoid: “Paul George had a bad game, so the trade failed.”

This one will be everywhere by late-October. George will miss one pull-up three in the second quarter against Orlando, and someone will be halfway through typing, “We traded Jaylen for this?” before the rebound gets secured.

Leave it alone.

George is being asked to make the toughest first impression of any new Celtic in years. Every missed jumper, quiet quarter, and maintenance day will get dragged back to the trade that brought him here. He is not arriving at a normal campsite. He is walking into camp while everyone is still staring at Jaylen’s empty sleeping bag.

One more poisonous plant to be wary of: “Actually, I never liked Jaylen anyway.”

Stop it.

Even if you’re not ready to admit it, Jaylen is one of the best players to ever put on a Celtics uniform. You watched him posterize people, win Finals MVP, and grow from a raw 19-year-old into one of the most important Celtics of his era.

All of that happened.

You can understand the logic of the trade without pretending the Jays were some failed experiment. For almost a decade, they shared the floor, absorbed every lazy wedge people tried to drive between them, and kept showing up for each other and for Boston.

Leaves of three, let it be.

Pritchard-Brunson comps, instant George referendums, fake Jaylen amnesia.

Let them be.

Go slow to go fast.

When you’re lost, speed feels productive. Most of the time, it just gets you more lost.

Moving too quick is how you twist an ankle, drop your flashlight, walk past the trail marker, and end up trying to sleep under a damp Celtics poncho while Sixers fans in a nearby tree debate Jaylen’s on/off numbers.

The Celtics have pointed to a trail that fans cannot see yet and asked everyone not to burn the map before anyone knows where it leads.

That is both annoying and the entire concept of optionality.

Optionality is not a player. You can’t throw a lob to optionality or blame it when the bench unit gives up a 14-2 run. It’s a door the Celtics believe they needed to open and step through.

Maybe the trail leads somewhere good. Perhaps there’s a clearing ahead where Brad Stevens is standing with three second-round picks and a handful of acorns, wearing a look that says, “It’s not tasty, but it’ll keep us alive.”

The trail has not revealed itself yet, so go slow.

You do not have to love the trade today. We won’t know for a long time if Brad is a genius, a fraud, a hostage of the CBA, or just a human who sometimes makes mistakes.

Let George play. Let Pritchard’s role breathe. Let Tatum get back to being Tatum. Let the young guys be lovable spark plugs instead of instant proof that the front office knows what it’s doing.

The Celtics made the bet. Fans shouldn’t judge the survival shelter before anyone has slept in it.

Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it.

Here is the part where everyone groans and throws their marshmallow fireballs in my direction.

Assets matter. I know. Horrible. Disgusting. Not why anyone fell in love with basketball.

Nobody grew up dreaming of the day their favorite team would have usable future assets. No kid in a No. 7 jersey has turned to their dad in the past week and said, “It’s okay, Papa. Paul George’s shorter contract creates cleaner optionality in a second-apron environment.”

If your kid has said that, congratulations. You are raising Mike Zarren Jr.

But tools do matter, not because they make anyone feel better right now, but because they give the Celtics things to use when the next problem arrives.

A future first-round pick is not a hug, nor does it stare into the Garden crowd after a clutch corner three. It certainly does not make Jaylen in a Sixers jersey any less nauseating.

But it is a flare gun.

A shorter contract? There’s your pocket knife.

A tradable salary? One of those little crank radios everyone buys before a storm without knowing how to use it.

You may not want to build your fandom around emergency supplies. Nobody does. But if the Celtics are stuck later, they will be glad they packed something besides vibes and a framed photo of the 2024 parade.

The Celtics may be right to value the tools. Fans may be right to hate the cost.

It’s snug, but both things can fit in the same backpack.

Do not mistake Summer League for rescue.

Normally, Summer League is for convincing yourself the 13th man has “real rotation equity,” and determining a second-round pick’s ceiling based on seven Vegas possessions.

This year, Summer League feels like someone spotted smoke in the distance. At last, help is within reach! Celtics fans need a distraction in a major way. They need new names, new box scores, new clips, new reasons to stop watching Jaylen Brown meet up with his new 6-year-old best friend.

Distractions can be healthy. But do not make the kids rescue you.

Hugo Gonzalez is not going to erase your grief. Chris Cenac Jr. is not a trained wilderness medic. Jordan Walsh should not have to check into a Vegas gym carrying the emotional weight of everyone who recently Googled “2028 pick protections explained in simplest terms.”

Let Summer League be what it is: a weird little basketball campsite in the desert where everyone talks themselves into at least one player they will later pretend they were always right about.

Enjoy it, but do not build a permanent shelter there.

Just keep walking.

Optionality is not closure. Brad Stevens gave us his best Doctor Strange impression, presenting 14,000,605 possible future outcomes, each one as uncertain and murky as the next.

That is the hardest part. Optionality could become a trade. It might become a better-fitting roster. It might become a cleaner cap sheet, a deeper team, or a path the Celtics could not have taken with Jaylen still on the books.

It might also morph into the word Celtics fans mutter years from now while staring into the abyss and remembering that Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George and picks.

ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 23: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics exits the court after winning Round One Game Four of the 2023 NBA Playoffs on April 23, 2023 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Nobody knows yet.

For now, everyone is still in the woods. The map is illegible. The compass is spinning. The trail markers were removed by a wily bunch of raccoons.

So keep breathing. Watch your step. Do not eat that berry. Avoid trying to explain the 2028 pick to your family unless you packed enough water. And be mindful of the trail marker that now reads, “Under construction.”

A clear head will eventually find itself.

Sabres Should Sign The Best NHL Free Agent Left

The Buffalo Sabres have had an eventful off-season, but they should not be done making moves yet. After losing Alex Tuch this summer, they should be looking to add another impactful winger to their roster to replace him.

One way that the Sabres could look to address this need is through the free agent market. When looking at the remaining unrestricted free agents (UFAs), Anthony Mantha stands out as a prime potential option for the Sabres to consider. 

It is surprising that Mantha has still not been signed at this point in the off-season. The 31-year-old forward just had a strong 2025-26 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, setting new career highs with 33 goals, 31 assists, and 64 points in 81 games. With numbers like these, he could be a strong pickup for Buffalo's forward group if signed.

If the Sabres signed Mantha, he would have the potential to slot nicely in their top nine. Furthermore, he would be an obvious option for the Sabres' power play because of his offensive ability. 

On a short-term deal, a player like Mantha could make a lot of sense for a Sabres club on the rise. It will be interesting to see if Buffalo makes a push for him this off-season because of it. 

This Penguins Prospect Goalie Is Major Breakout Candidate

Pittsburgh Penguins prospect Sergei Murashov certainly demonstrated plenty of promise this past season. In 38 AHL appearances with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, he posted a 24-9-4 record, a .919 save percentage, a 2.20 goals-against average, and four shutouts.

Murashov also appeared in his first five career NHL games last season with Pittsburgh, where he recorded an .897 save percentage and a 2.56 goals-against average. He also recorded a 21-save shutout against the Nashville Predators on Nov. 16. 

With this, Murashov has undoubtedly given fans plenty to be excited about when it comes to his future with the club. Now, he is heading into the 2026-27 season as one of their top breakout candidates to watch. 

With Stuart Skinner leaving the Penguins and signing with the Winnipeg Jets, Pittsburgh now has an open goalie spot on their roster. With that, Murashov has a golden opportunity in front him to try and prove that he is ready to be a full-time NHL goalie. 

When looking at how well Murashov has performed in the AHL, it is clear that he has plenty of potential. It will be interesting to see if he can take another big step in his development next season and become a key part of the Penguins' roster in the process. 

Ryan O’Hearn has career night, sets Pirates record

Jul 7, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez (55) dumps water on first baseman Ryan O'Hearn (29) after O’Hearn recorded three home runs and ten runs batted in against the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a huge 11-4 win in their series opener against the Atlanta Braves, with Ryan O’Hearn leading the charge from the very first inning.

Hurston Waldrep was on the bump for the Braves and did not start off his night great as in the first inning the Pirates had quickly loaded the bases. With one out and bases loaded O’Hearn came to the plate. With a 1-1 count Waldrep gave up a regrettable looking curveball that O’Hearn turned on and smashed into the right field stands. With that grand slam the Pirates were quickly up 4-1.

In the bottom of the third, O’Hearn was back at the plate with two runners on and no outs. Waldrep again gave O’Hearn an off-speed pitch in the lower part of the zone that ended up being crushed off the back drop in center field. Bryan Reynolds and Esmerlyn Valdez were driven in and the Pirates went up 7-2 with 7 RBIs and two homers on the night from O’Hearn.

Connor Thomas would relieve Waldrep but the momentum that the Pirates offense had started with at the beginning of the night had no end in sight. In the bottom of the sixth inning there was two outs with Jake Mangum and Brandon Lowe on the base pads. With a 3-1 count O’Hearn took advantage of yet another off-speed pitch and armed the cannon with another cannonball into the right field stands. The Pirates went up 10-2 at that point in the game and O’Hearn had officially set a new record for most RBIs in a game by a Bucco, breaking Johnny Rizzo’s record that he set back in 1939 when he had nine in a game against St. Louis. With his 10th RBI he set the mark for most by any player in a game this season, and became the 17th player to have 10 RBIs in a game in the modern era.

O’Hearn would take a crack at getting a fourth homer on the night in the bottom of the eighth. He didn’t drive one home, but he did hit a line drive single into right field before exiting for a pinch runner and receiving a huge standing ovation from the fans at PNC Park. He would finish the night with four hits, 10 RBIs, three homers, upped his batting average to .293 and increased his season total of home runs to 16 which is just one shy of his career high of 17 that he had last season.

Although he was snubbed of a spot on the All-Star team, O’Hearn is having what could end up being the best season of his career. At 32-years-old it would be reasonable to see him start to decline, but he has enjoyed a career year with the Buccos so far and we’re only halfway through the season.

Open Thread: Spurs sign Tobias Harris

SAN ANTONIO, TX - JANUARY 23: Tobias Harris #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball during the game against the San Antonio Spurs on January 23, 2022 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2022 NBAE (Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

It’s been a busy week for the Spurs. They signed their draftees and sent them off to San Francisco for the California Classic. Starting Thursday, they’ll be competing in Las Vegas. They also finalized the signing of Tobias Harris, the free agency acquisition that will help fill the power forward position the Spurs desperately needed in the postseason.

Harris will wear number 23.

Because numbers have been my thing since joining PtR nine years ago, let’s take a look at some of the players throughout the team’s history that have also worn #23 as their jersey.

Jersey #23, from an NBA standpoint, is most widely associated with Michael Jordan. From a Spurs perspective, it has not been utilized by long term players. Most recently, Zach Collins wore it for the Silver & Black from 2022 to 2025. Over three-and-a-half seasons, he played 196 games. That’s the most he’s played for any NBA team and the most that any Spurs player has worn the jersey.

NBA: San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings

Austin Daye wore #23 during his stint with the Spurs. In 40 games over two partial seasons, but he did pick up a championship ring in 2014 with the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs v Dallas Mavericks

Speaking of rings, Devin Brown picked up a ring in 2005 with the Spurs. By then he’d been wearing #23 for two seasons.

Denver Nuggets v San Antonio Spurs

If your memory goes back to the 1970s, you’ll recall Mike Green. He played center for the Spurs over two seasons in 139 games. He rocked #23 while the Spurs were still establishing themselves in the NBA.

Tobias Harris is by far the biggest name to don the jersey. Hopefully he’ll make it memorable.


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Chicago Cubs history unpacked — July 8

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Jerome Walton, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1962 – With home runs in his first three at bats, 41-year-old Stan Musial of the Cardinals not only becomes the oldest player to hit three in a game but also ties the major league record of four straight home runs, as the Cards whip the Mets, 15-1. His home run in the second game the day before won the game, 3-2, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

Cubs Birthdays:Owen Caissie, Jaime García, Bobby Ayala, Jerome Walton*, Ken Patterson, Al Spangler, Charlie Gilbert, Rowdy Elliott, Buttons Briggs. Also notable: Hank O’Day HOF.

Today in history:

  • 1693 – New York City authorizes the first police uniforms in the American colonies.
  • 1776 – Colonel John Nixon gives the first public reading of the Declaration of Independence to an assemblage of citizens in Philadelphia.
  • 1889 – John L. Sullivan successfully defends the last officially sanctioned bare-knuckle world heavyweight prizefighting championship when Jake Kilrain’s trainer throws in the towel after 75 one-minute rounds near Hattiesburg, Mississippi.
  • 1913 – Alfred Carlton Gilbert‘s patent for the Erector Set is issued, one of the most popular toys of all time.
  • 1947 – Reports are broadcast that a UFO has crash landed in Roswell, New Mexico.
  • 2014 – FIFA World Cup: Germany defeats Brazil by a record 7-1 in the semi-finals to make it to the final; Miroslav Klose of Germany breaks the World Cup career goal scoring record with 16 goals (surpassed by Lionel Messi in 2026)

*pictured.

Orioles news: O’s fall to bottom of AL East with loss

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 07: Pete Alonso #25 of the Baltimore Orioles reacts after striking out in the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 07, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning Birdland,

It’s tough to win a game in which you have zero extra base hits and go just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. The Orioles proved that on Tuesday night as they lost 5-2 to the visiting Cubs. Andrea SK recapped the action for us, in case you missed it.

If you’ve seen one Orioles game this season, you have pretty much seen them all. The Tuesday night loss was boiler plate for this squad. Shane Baz was…fine. He provided a quality start and gave his team a chance to win. The bullpen, which is falling apart with injuries, did not hold up their end. Anthony Nunez coughed up a pair of runs in his two innings. And then the lineup, outside of Adley Rutschman, who drove in both of the team’s runs, failed to come through when the pressure was high.

The bottom of the fourth inning saw the O’s get the first two hitters on base. That was followed by three consecutive strikeouts. The seventh inning is where Rutschman came through with his two-out, two-run single. But then Gunnar Henderson went down on three straight strikes at the bottom of the zone to end the threat.

The loss (paired with another Red Sox win) sunk the O’s further down the standings. They are now at the bottom of the AL East, 12.5 games back of the division-leading Rays and 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot. It’s getting more difficult to make a case for the Orioles to truly “go for it” in 2026.

There could be a lane for the team to both buy and sell. That is, move players due to hit free agency this year or that you don’t see a role for in 2027, while also seeking out talent that is under team control beyond this season that would be an upgrade for a turnaround next summer. That can be a tricky proposition, but the Orioles are one of the rare teams where it might make sense.

That’s a problem to figure out in a few weeks. Right now, the focus has to be on winning games. They need to do something they haven’t done yet this year, which is to go on an extended winning streak. Bouncing back and going into next week’s all-star break on a heater would be pretty neat. Fingers crossed.

Links

Orioles Notes: Akin, Helsley, Selby, Detwiler | MLB Trade Rumors
The Orioles bullpen has had some moments of brilliance, but in general the unit has fallen apart this season. Injuries have been killer, and that has only gotten worse recently. Mike Elias made some comments recently that indicated the club was intrigued by Félix Bautista’s progress, but any possible return there is still a ways off. And by the time he could be ready, it may not make too much sense to force him back into action.

This, that and the other | Roch Kubatko
Lots of little nuggets in this one, including the fact that Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward have combined for the third-highest hit total for a duo that is in its first season with the Orioles. It’s a very specific stat, but still interesting given some of the great hitters the O’s have had. Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez are first with 213 hits. Alonso and Ward are at 172.

Bassitt ‘writing the script’ for second-half return after unique back surgery | Orioles.com
It’s great that Chris Bassitt is feeling better. It doesn’t sound like he is particularly close to getting back on the field though. Right now he is talking about pitching at some point before the season is over. So, don’t get too excited.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

  • Danny Ardoin turns 52 today. He played in five games for the 2006 Orioles.
  • Jerome Walton is 61 years old. The outfielder spent 26 games with the O’s in 1997.
  • The late John Powers (b. 1929, d. 2001) was born on this day. He made his way into 10 games for the Orioles in 1960.

This day in O’s history

1969 – The Orioles beat the Yankees 4-1 as Mike Cuellar throws a complete game three-hitter. All three hits come off the bat of Yankees centerfielder Ron Woods, who singles twice and hits a home run.

1970 – Using a ninth-inning rally that includes a home run from Frank Robinson and a two-out single from Don Buford, the Orioles come back from an 8-6 deficit to beat the Yankees 9-8.

2011 – The Orioles lose 10-3 to the Red Sox, sunk by a disastrous first inning. But that didn’t prevent some fireworks late. In the eighth inning, David Ortiz charges the mound after O’s reliever Kevin Gregg brushes him back twice and then yells at him as he fails to run out a pop out. Benches empty. Ortiz, Gregg, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Jim Johnson are all ejected.

Mets Daily Prospect Report, 7/8/26: Runs galore!

CINCINNATI, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 06: Kevin Herget #57 of the New York Mets pitches in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 06, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kareem Elgazzar/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (38-37/6-6)

POSTPONED (INCLEMENT WEATHER)

ROSTER ALERT: Syracuse Mets sent RHP Kevin Herget on a rehab assignment to Brooklyn Cyclones.

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (27-42/3-10)

BINGHAMTON 10, HARTFORD 4 (BOX)

With the score tied at 4-4 going into the later innings, Binghamton unloaded on Hartford with a six-run eighth inning.

·  DH Chris Suero: 0-4, 2 R, 2 BB, K

·  CF Jose Ramos: 2-4, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

·  3B Nick Lorusso: 1-5, R, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K

·  1B JT Schwartz: 1-3, 2 R, HR (9), 4 RBI, BB, 2 K

·  C Kevin Parada: 1-2, RBI, 2 BB

·  LF Vincent Perozo: 0-4, BB, 2 K

·  RF Matt Rudick: 1-4, R, BB, 2 K

·  SS Wyatt Young: 1-4, R, BB

·  2B Kevin Villavicencio: 2-4, R, RBI, 2 SB (2, 3)

·  RHP Channing Austin: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

·  RHP Justin Armbruester: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

·  RHP Brendan Girton: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

·  LHP Felipe De La Cruz: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, BLK, H (2)

·  RHP Douglas Orellana: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, W (7-2), BS (3)

·  RHP Garrett Stratton: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

·  RHP Saul Garcia: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

ROSTER ALERT: New York Mets sent CF Luis Robert Jr. on a rehab assignment to Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (25-40/7-8)

WILMINGTON 2, BROOKLYN 1 (BOX)

Noah Hall tossed a terrific game, and following scoreless inning after scoreless inning, the Cyclones finally got on the board in the bottom of the sixth to make him the potential winning pitcher. Kevin Herget promptly allowed a pair of runs in the top of the seventh, and that ended up being that.

·  2B Mitch Voit: 0-3, R, BB, SB (27)

·  SS Yonatan Henriquez: 0-4, K, E

·  DH Ronald Hernandez: 1-4, RBI, K

·  1B Corey Collins: 0-2, BB, K, HBP

·  LF JT Benson: 0-4, K

·  C Daiverson Gutierrez: 2-3

·  RF Yohairo Cuevas: 0-3, 2 K

·  3B Colin Houck: 0-3, K

·  CF Sam Biller: 0-3, 2 K

· RHP Noah Hall: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

·  RHP Kevin Herget: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, WP, L (0-1), BS (1)

·  RHP Parker Carlson: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

·  LHP Gregori Louis: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (33-33/4-10)

ST. LUCIE 11, JUPITER 2 (BOX)

Not only did St. Lucie knock around Jupiter starter Jonas Uzcategui, but they kept the pressure on, scoring deep into the ballgame. Antonio Jimenez was a big part of that, with the infielder having his best game as a professional, logging four hits including two doubles and a home run, and stealing a pair of bases.

·  SS Antonio Jimenez: 4-6, 4 R, 2 2B, HR (4), RBI, K, 2 SB (11, 12)

·  3B Branny De Oleo: 2-5, R, 3 RBI, K

·  CF Trey Snyder: 1-4, 2 R, BB, 3 K, HBP, CS (1)

·  1B Julio Zayas: 0-2, 2 R, 4 BB, K

·  RF AJ Salgado: 2-5, 2 RBI, K

·  LF Simon Juan: 1-3, BB, HBP

·  C Chase Meggers: 0-4, RBI, BB, 2 K, PB (11)

·  DH Taylor Darden: 0-4, BB, 2 K

·  2B Jeremy Rodriguez: 0-3, 2 R, 2 BB, K

·  RHP Jose Lopez: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, WP

·  RHP Zack Mack: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, W (3-1)

·  RHP Miguel Mejias: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

·  RHP Elwis Mijares: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

ROSTER ALERT: RHP Jose Lopez assigned to St. Lucie Mets from FCL Mets.

Rookie: FCL Mets (20-25)

FCL METS 1, FCL CARDINALS 0 / 7 (BOX)

·  CF Bohan Adderley: 2-3, 2B

·  REHAB ALERT DH Mike Tauchman: 0-2, BB

·  LF Vladi Gomez: 1-3, 2 SB (29, 30)

·  C Yovanny Rodriguez: 0-2, BB, K

·  2B Anthony Frobose: 0-3, 2 K

·  1B Yeider Mindiola: 1-3, R

·  SS Yorber Semprun: 0-2

·  3B Diover De Aza: 0-2, BB, CS (1)

·  RF Heriberto Rincon: 1-3, 2B, RBI, K

·  RHP Nathan Hall: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

·  REHAB ALERT RHP Candido Cuevas: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, HBP

·  RHP Eris Albino: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

·  RHP Yoralbert Cadiz: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

ROSTER ALERT: Syracuse Mets sent RF Mike Tauchman on a rehab assignment to FCL Mets.

ROSTER ALERT: Brooklyn Cyclones sent RHP Candido Cuevas on a rehab assignment to FCL Mets.

STAR OF THE NIGHT

Antonio Jimenez

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Kevin Herget

Phillies news: Jesus Luzardo, Zack Wheeler, Byron Buxton

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch in the second inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The Phillies led 3-0 after three innings. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I do believe that Zack Wheeler pitched that game with a decent sized chip on his shoulder. Actually, multiple chips on his shoulder – one from not being selected to the All-Star Game and one for Don Mattingly taking him out early from a game he wanted to stay in.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

MLB news:

Detroit Tigers can secure series win with victory over Athletics on Wednesday

The Detroit Tigers opened up their final homestand before the All-Star break with a 6-2 victory over the Athletics on Tuesday night. Tarik Skubal limited the visitors to just one run over five frames while striking out nine and the home team benefited from a two-out rally in the sixth inning to give them their fifth win of July and sixth in the last seven games.

With a chance to clinch their third-straight series on Wednesday, the Motor City Kitties send right-hander Troy Melton to the mound to do battle. The 25-year-old has thrown three straight quality starts since late June, posting a microscopic 0.98 ERA while the FIP gods are still a bit bearish at 3.39 over that stretch. His strikeout numbers have trended in the right direction as well, sending five or more batters back to the dugout over his last five outings.

Melton’s last start against the New York Yankees in the Bronx was among the best of his young career, tossing 6 1/3 frames of shutout ball on two hits and a walk while matching his career-high in strikeouts with seven en route to a no-decision in a 6-2 team victory in extras.

For the Athletics, left-hander Jeffrey Springs will toe the rubber looking to even the weekday series in a season that has seen his performance drop off precipitously after a strong start. Over his first four appearances of the 2026 campaign, the 33-year-old posted a 1.46 ERA and 2.46 FIP; in his 14 outings since, he has produced a 7.34 ERA and 7.09 FIP. Woof.

In Springer’s last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he surrendered six runs on eight hits (two home runs) and four walks while striking out for his eighth loss of the season. Hopefully, the Tigers can give him his ninth on Wednesday night.

Here is how Melton and Springer match up on paper.

Detroit Tigers (41-50) vs. Athletics (41-50)

Time (ET): 6:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site:Athletics Nation
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 92: RHP Troy Melton (4-1, 2.05 ERA) vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs (3-8, 5.79 ERA)

PlayerGIPK%BB%GB%FIPfWAR
Melton744.019.26.042.34.540.4
Springs1893.119.78.133.85.86-0.3

MELTON

SPRINGS

Pierce Mbuyi turns heads at first development camp

BUFFALO, NEW YORK - JUNE 27: Pierce Mbuyi, 86th overall pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins, poses for a portrait during Day Two of the 2026 NHL Draft at KeyBank Center on June 27, 2026 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images

One of the prospects that turned heads at the Penguins’ summer development camp for his standout play on the ice was 2026 third round pick Pierce Mbuyi. Mbuyi was all over the place creating offense at the 3v3 scrimmages, the perfect venue for a player with his creativity and skill to stand out. It was a great first impression from a player drafted 86th overall at the 2026 draft.

“Pierce is an underdog. He had 74 points this year, and we did a lot of work on him in the past couple of weeks. He’s dealt with some things in his lifetime that you don’t want people at that age to deal with. So, we see the look in his eyes, and we’ve got a lot of belief in the person.” —Wes Clark

Clark was referencing Mbuyi’s mother passing away from cancer in 2021.

“If I had a bad game I could just talk to her about the game . . . my mom would just let me tell her what I think. She didn’t know much about hockey, she just always wanted to help out and do her thing,” Mbuyi said. “Everything I do is for my mom. With everything I do, I try to make her proud.”

Mbuyi made himself into a pro prospect despite the immeasurable personal loss. He was drafted seventh overall in the OHL draft and has continued on his journey with the most recent step of being selected by an NHL team. After two successful seasons in the OHL, Mbuyi is off to State College in 2026-27 to continue the next step of his career in Pennsylvania.

“I was always just a hard worker. A grinder. When I dropped down to my age group I had a pretty good year, but it was my bantam year when I kind of took off and started scoring,” Mbuyi said. “I don’t know what happened. I got some hands overnight.”

“I was just really determined. For me it wasn’t even about the points, it was just about working my ass off and getting seen, you know? Make an impact,” Mbuyi said.

There were plenty of scouting eyes and models that liked Mbuyi higher than the 86th overall pick that he ended up being drafted at. Here’s a smattering of the input they found and shared about the player.

One reason Mbuyi stuck around until the third round was his size. At only 163 pounds, he’s got a long way to go physically to mold himself into a pro level player. His upside, as seen above, is evident. The reason the Penguins liked him was on display at prospects camp for the way he thinks the game and the skill he has to pull it off.

From Josh Yohe at The Athletic:

There is one other person that everyone I speak with in the organization is excited about. His name is Pierce Mbuyi.

The Penguins genuinely did not expect him to still be available in the third round. Though Mbuyi is undersized, the Penguins love his skill, hockey IQ and competitive spirit. They think they got a steal.

Time will tell, of course. But this is as excited as I’ve heard people about a third-round pick in a long time.

To that, some of us are old enough to remember 2019 third round pick Nathan Legare, who carried even more hype early after draft day, though we digress.

Pal Jesse Marshall did a wonderful deep dive into Mbuyi, complete with a 13-minute video package breaking down some highlights that make this a special prospect.

Mbuyi’s best asset and his calling card are his one-timers. As a rookie last season, he led the entire OHL in power-play goals, scoring 19 from his favorite spot on the ice: the half-wall. As an opponent, when you see Mbuyi sitting in that spot with his stick loaded up over his head, you had better close on him immediately. Mbuyi scored many brute-force goals this year and did a great job opening space for himself, stalking open ice, and finding the right space for his teammates to get him the puck. He generates great velocity and accuracy from that position.

This isn’t just standing around in the same spot with his stick loaded, waiting to strike. Mbuyi manipulates opponents with his decision making. Most of the time, he does this via deferential passing. Mbuyi will pick his spot, load his stick up, and get ready to rip his lethal one-timer. Upon receiving the puck, if Mbuyi doesn’t have a lane, he just makes a touch-pass. The touch-pass inherently forces the defenseman to re-position himself to account for the puck movement. As the defenseman re-positions himself, so does Mbuyi. He re-loads his stick in a slightly different spot than the one he was just in, and when his teammate passes back to him, he has more time and space than he had on the initial retrieval.

Much of Jesse’s scouting report about Mbuyi was on full display in Pittsburgh last week. He is a shifty skater, strong at controlling the puck and has a knack for scoring goals and setting them up, making things happen nearly every time he went out on the ice. A successful debut at his first pro development camp will make Mbuyi a player to monitor for how he develops moving into a new realm in the NCAA ranks.

Amen Thompson is reported to be “near untouchable” for Rockets

With the NBA trade market booming with multiple trades occurring, it’s natural to wonder whether the Rockets would trade any of their young core. Well, it seems we got the answer, as in a Kelly Iko article released in late June, Iko was quoted saying: “Rival teams that have contacted the Rockets recently have been informed that 23-year-old Amen Thompson is the only near untouchable on the roster,” Iko wrote. Houston isn’t actively shopping its All-Stars or other key members, sources said, but is merely expressing more of a willingness to listen than at previous junctures. We already heard that the team has no reservations about shopping Kevin Durant.

This adjustment follows a season in which Houston’s potential was put to the test due to injuries and the constraints of an incomplete squad. The Rockets won 52 games after adding Durant in July of last year, but season-ending injuries to Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams weakened the foundation that had enabled them to control pace and possessions.

Following Iko’s article, a tweet appeared on many people’s timelines, Tim MacMahon of the Hoop Collective Podcast stating

“As high as you think they might be on Amen Thompson, they’re higher. I literally dont know that they’d trade him for anyone but Wemby…”

Now, to some people, this may seem like a wild statement, but to be honest, in a way, it makes sense. It’s almost natural to gas up your own players if you’re a team’s front office to try and get the most you can for your player. Additonally, while the verdict is still out on Sengun, many feel Thompson is the last chance the Rockets have at getting a homegrown superstar from the draft since Jalen Green did not reach expectations before being traded, and Jabari Smith Jr. is likely just a high-end role player. If anything I agree with the statement to a point however, I personally would maybe include a few more players on the list of players I would trade Amen Thompson for, such as Nikola Jokic (yes, the fit would potentially not work because of Sengun, and you would have two centers, but let me cook), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and potentially Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson.

Now here is where the fun begins, now that I have given my opinion on who I would trade Amen Thompson for, I want you, the reader, to list your lists of players you would trade Amen Thompson for. It can be a large list, a small list, or you can straight-up say you don’t want to trade him at all. Bonus points for listing potential trade deals, and the only rule is that, for this exercise, the normal trade rules with salary matching don’t apply since, obviously, Amen’s salary does not match that of any of the players mentioned besides Wemby.

The Jaylen trade has set the Celtics up for Banner 19

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 06: Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens departs from a media availability at The Auerbach Center on July 06, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo By Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Boston Celtics traded Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks. While it’s a disappointing return, I still like the trade for the Celtics and understand why Brad Stevens pulled the trigger.

The Jays era had run its course in Boston. The current iteration of the team had flamed out in the first and second rounds of the last two playoff runs. It was time to make a significant change, and Brad Stevens decided that change would take the form of sending the 2024 Finals MVP to one of the franchise’s historic rivals. 

The purpose of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is to tear down teams like the 2024 Boston Celtics. It started last offseason when the front office said goodbye to Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet. The basketball penalties for staying in the second apron are real. The league is treating that apron as a hard cap. Jaylen Brown is the next casualty of that reality.

Brad Stevens alluded to it in his press conference: building a championship roster when two guys are taking up 35% of the cap is untenable which leads to an obvious follow-up question:

Brad, why were you going after Giannis Antetokounmpo, who would have been due his own supermax extension?

Oh, and Paul George is taking up 32.8% of the cap for the next two seasons.

And here comes the part that some Celtics fans don’t want to hear: Jaylen Brown is making top-five player money, and isn’t producing top-five player impact. While Brown produced at a top-10 level in the 2026 regular season, he has consistently fallen short of that standard in the playoffs. The 2024 Finals MVP played his best basketball en route to that championship. But even that player is hard to justify giving supermax money to. When you zoom out and look at Jaylen’s play in the playoffs over the last four seasons, it hasn’t been good enough to justify his contract.

In the 2023, 2025 (knee injury noted), and 2026 playoffs, Brown’s play cratered when the Celtics needed him most. In his press conference, the part that Brad refused to say out loud because he didn’t want to disparage Jaylen, is that it’s not that he believes that two 35% of cap guys can’t win a title, it’s that if one of them is Jaylen Brown and not someone of Jayson Tatum’s or Giannis Antetokounmpo’s caliber, you can’t win a title. On the Paul George side of things, the shorter contract and the additional premium picks provides the Celtics flexibility to build out the roster down the line. We will dive into this side of the trade shortly.

Moving on to the basketball mind of Brad Stevens. If you had polled Celtics fans and the basketball intelligentsia a month ago about Stevens’ basketball acumen, the consensus would have been that he is a basketball savant. Did Brad have a lobotomy last week or does he still know what he’s doing? There is no one on planet Earth who knows Jaylen Brown’s game better than Brad Stevens, from coaching the star forward in his first five seasons, to overseeing his prime as the President of Basketball Operations. Stevens has watched every second of his career. Given that knowledge, not only was Brad willing to trade Brown, but he was willing to trade him to an arch nemesis in the Philadelphia 76ers, a team the Celtics will face six times next season, including the preseason.

As I wandered through the history of this era of Celtics basketball, something jumped out at me. At the end of the 2021 season, Brad Stevens stepped down as head coach and into his current role. The following season, the Celtics hired Ime Udoka, and the Celtics proceeded to go on a magical run to the 2022 NBA Finals, which ended in heartbreak after going up 2-1 on the Steph Curry Warriors. This version of the Celtics went further than Brad ever did as head coach. It was the most successful season of the Jays era. There was no reason to be anything but utterly optimistic about the future of the Celtics.

A month later, Brad Stevens attempted to trade Jaylen Brown for Kevin Durant. The deal ultimately did not go through and was quietly swept under the rug as the team prepared for their 2023 campaign. I can’t help but wonder whether Brad has wanted to move on from Jaylen Brown for a while now.

If you continue to follow me down this rabbit hole, it brings us to the decision to sign Brown to a supermax extension after the disastrous Eastern Conference Finals series against the Miami Heat. Sidebar: to those who say that the Celtics have treated Jaylen poorly. The Celtics signed Jaylen to, what was at the time, the richest contract in NBA history, coming off his worst playoff series as a Celtic.

I digress. Brad, I believe, thought two things: one, Jaylen would have more value on a longer contract, even if it was somewhat bloated, than on an expiring contract; and two, he wanted to make sure that everyone on the 2024 team had no contract questions hanging over them so they could focus on achieving their goal of winning the title. That’s why the Jrue Holiday extension got done as well. I went down this rabbit hole because I wanted to answer the question of why trade Jaylen now and not last season (or before that). It would have made sense to tank the 2025-2026 season knowing what we know now.

But if we cast our minds back to the end of the 2025 season, Tatum had just torn his Achilles, and Jaylen had his own meniscus surgery, a procedure that has derailed numerous NBA careers. I think Brad believed he could pull off a Jaylen pump-and-dump scheme which almost worked. Jaylen had a career season in both raw box-score production and accolades. The problem was that the league was not particularly interested in trading for that Jaylen Brown. 

The number one source of frustration among Celtics fans, and the criticism from the national media, is that the return for Jaylen Brown fell drastically short of most people’s expectations. The market is the market. The Celtics front office could not force teams to give up more for Jaylen Brown. The league is telling us that the most toxic thing a team can do in the current CBA climate is to have a supermax contract on the books that considerably outpaces the production.

A common sentiment shared over the last week is “the Celtics should have waited because this deal or similar deals would have still been there in September.” It’s possible that this deal would have been there in a month or two. However, I don’t understand ignoring the possibility that the offers could have gotten worse.

When we get to July 26th, and the Celtics tell Jaylen Brown they are not offering him a supermax extension, that gives the Celtics even less leverage in trade negotiations. And if they do give him the extension, then there is no market for Brown. If they wait until next offseason, Jaylen can start leaking to teams whether he will or will not extend.

This was the time to make the trade. After Jaylen finished sixth in MVP voting, this was the peak of his value. Whether Celtics fans can accept that or not, that is the reality. Brad Stevens didn’t look at four different offers and decide to take the worst one. Stevens took the deal that he believes will give the Celtics the best chance to win the title. 

Let’s look at the incoming assets for the Celtics. Starting with public enemy number three, Paul George — Brad Stevens and Bill Chisolm are currently occupying spots one and two. If you did this exercise in December of last season, George would have ranked very highly on the league’s worst-contracts list. Fast-forward to July, and Paul George is coming off a playoff run in which he comfortably outplayed Jaylen Brown. 

Let’s be clear. The trade is not really about Paul George though. It’s about the future, and as Brad put it over and over again in his press conference, “optionality.” That’s what the two draft picks and shorter contract do for the Celtics.

However, when healthy, Paul George is still an elite basketball player. While Jaylen Brown is the better basketball player, George is a better fit on this Celtics team. Joe Mazzulla’s strategic philosophy is clear – shoot threes, defend, suppress offensive turnovers, and crash the offensive glass. We’ll start with the shooting. George is an elite shooter both off the catch and off the dribble, a career 38.4% three-point shooter on high volume and high difficulty. On just catch-and-shoot three-pointers over the past nine seasons, George is shooting a blistering 41.3%. For context, over the last five seasons, Jaylen Brown’s overall three-point percentage has been below league average at 34.4%. When isolating his three-point catch-and-shoot numbers, it sits at 34.9%. This leaves defenses with a very different decision when helping off Jaylen versus helping off PG.

Moving through the Mazzulla Ball tenets, next up is defense. Despite Jaylen claiming that he is the “best two-way player in the league,” that has never been close to true. The five-time All-Star can be an elite on-ball defender when he is locked in, but even that part of his game waxes and wanes, as seen in the first round of the playoffs, when Tyrese Maxey and Paul George fried his face off. But where Brown’s defense really falls apart is his off-ball defense. There is no perfect stat to encapsulate Jaylen’s disappointing off ball defense. However, it is a part of Jaylen’s game that I have been critical of for years. Here is a seven-minute film session on Jaylen’s off-ball defense from January 2025. 

With all that being said, the analytics conversation around Brown has gone too far. We have the now infamous assertion from an anonymous analytics guy that Jaylen was the seventh best Celtic on the team last season. Nonsense.  However, one analytic that has often matched the eye test is the swing on the defensive end of the court. Over the past three seasons, the Celtics have had a 113.4 defensive rating with Jaylen on the court, which would have ranked 8th in the league last season. With Jaylen off the court, the team had a 110.7 defensive rating, which would have ranked third in the league last season.

I believe this swing is largely to do with JB’s weakness when playing off the ball. Conversely, looking at Paul George’s defensive on/off swing, with George on the court for the 76ers over the past two seasons, the Sixers had a 114.1 defensive rating, and a 117.6 defensive rating with him off the court. When healthy, Paul George is still a high level two-way basketball player, and I think will be maximized in a streamlined role in Mazzulla’s system.

Admittedly, the “when healthy” part is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I expect George to be on the Al Horford programwith 28 minutes per game and no back-to-backs. If you get 50 games out of PG with him healthy going into the playoffs, that’s a win to me. The Celtics are a regular season wins machine who can afford to load manage both George and Mitchell Robinson while racking up wins. 

The last piece of the Mazzulla Ball puzzle is the contrast in how Paul George affects the team’s turnover rate in comparison to Jaylen’s. Mazzulla typically gets attention for his infatuation with the three-point shot, but the secret sauce is the Celtics’ league leading turnover rate. It’s simple. You have a 0% chance of scoring if you turn the ball over, and you exponentially increase the likelihood of the opposing team scoring when you turn it over yourself.

Jaylen’s biggest weakness on offense has always been his ability to hold onto the ball. The magnum opus was Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. When we compare the impact of each player on their team’s turnover rate, George has the edge here as well. In his time in Philly, the 76ers had a 13.1% turnover rate with George on the floor and a 13.2% turnover rate with him off and recorded a near identical number in his five seasons with the Clippers. If we look at Brown’s last three seasons, the Celtics’ turnover rate was 12.6% with Jaylen on the court and 11.6% with Jaylen off the court. If you isolate to the most recent season, that swing swelled to a swing of 1.4%. You might be thinking these margins are negligible. Joe Mazzulla and Brad Stevens would disagree. 

Another angle that sceptics of the Jaylen trade have brought up is how this further limits the Celtics ability to generate rim attempts. While it’s true that Jaylen himself gets to the rim more than Paul George, George creates more overall rim attempts with his passing, while also turning the ball over significantly less.

Moving on to Brad Stevens’ word of the offseason: optionality. While I think the Paul George fit is perfect for Mazzulla Ball, the trade was made for the picks that were acquired and the fact that George has one less year on his contract. Under the new lottery reform, both picks acquired have the upside of being top five picks. Under the new lottery rules, the Clippers are the type of team that should slot into the three lottery balls zone. They’re a bad team, but not bad enough to be in the bottom three in the league, but bad enough to miss the NBA Playoffs and likely the Play-In.

Brad is also betting that a team that has 80%-85% of its cap tied up in 35-year-old Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe are likely to be a Play-In team as well. With those picks, the Celtics now have seven first round picks and swaps to be used to build the next title team. Whether that’s swinging for Nikola Jokic next offseason, or a younger star in someone like Franz Wagner, the specifics are irrelevant. This trades gives the Celtics optionality in a way they did not have before. 

The last concern I will address is the concept that this trade went down because Bill Chisolm is a private equity guy, and private equity guys only do things to make money. Firstly, if I ever think Bill Chisolm is cheaping out on the roster, I will be at the front of the line accusing him of being a broke boy.

However, we do not have the answer to whether or not Chisolm is willing to spend into the luxury tax and into the second apron…yet. The basketball penalties for staying in the second apron are severe. Not a single team in the NBA has been willing to stay in the second apron for an extended period. Every team in the league would be attempting to reset the repeater tax like the Celtics did last season and will likely do this upcoming season, too. That was the purpose of the current CBA. As Chisolm told the media in his and Brad’s state of the union, “I will also prove it to you. When we have the opportunity, we’re gonna spend.” Time will tell. 

I understand Celtics fan’s emotional and practical attachment to Jaylen Brown. Brown will deservedly have his jersey retired in TD Garden once it’s all said and done. The positive impact he has had on the Boston community cannot be overstated. However, the Boston Celtics’ title window with Jaylen Brown had closed.

The Celtics blew the franchise’s first ever 3-1 lead in the first round to a mediocre Philadelphia 76ers team. It was time for change. Up until this point, it has been easy to have faith in Brad Stevens. Don’t lose faith now.