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After dropping the series to the Baltimore Orioles at home over the weekend, the last place Cincinnati Reds fell to just 41-48 on the season. To wrap the first half of their schedule prior to the All Star break, all they get to do is host the red hot Philadelphia Phillies (who are 20 games over .500 since their dismal 8-18 start) and the mighty Chicago Cubs who, like the Phils, are 10 games over .500 on the season.

It’s looking obvious that the Reds should be sellers ahead on the August 3rd trade deadline even if they haven’t figured that out themselves.

As we opined over a month ago (when the Reds were in last place and looked like sellers), selling wasn’t even going to be easy for them this year. The short term pieces they brought in had underperformed or were already not valued, and longer-term pieces simply had been too hurt or playing poorly to be doing anything other than selling low on.

Has any of that really changed? Let’s take a look at who might be Cincinnati’s biggest, best trade chip for this particular trade deadline.

Off-limits

RHP Chase Burns, IF Sal Stewart

Unless the Castellinis and their consortium are literally selling everything – every player, the entire franchise, all of it – you don’t even listen if someone calls about these two young All Stars. They are the new cornerstones around whom you build.

Only if you are bowled completely over

SS Elly De La Cruz, LHP Andrew Abbott

Notice how I didn’t include Elly above?

You certainly don’t shop him, as news of that would leak and there’d be an insant maelstrom out of which you would not emerge. But if someone comes in with the Bartolo Colon offer, or the Juan Soto Washington Edition offer, or the Mark Teixeira deal on Atlanta’s end, maybe it’s time to consider it.

The insane talent is still obviously there, yes, but you can make a pretty decent argument that he has plateaud just slightly below superstar status. The ability to run has also been taken away from him, either by caution due to the quad and hamstring injuries or by design from the Reds powers that be. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for 2027 and no longer cheap, but just about every team out there probably already has a ‘what would it take to get Elly from the Reds’ in their trade deadline playbook.

Also, do you really think the Reds will be good between now and when Elly walks in 3.5 years? Or, rather, between now and when they’re forced to sell him before he walks?

It’s a somewhat similar story to former All Star Andrew Abbott, who shrugged off a bad April to look exactly like the All Star he was last year again. He’s got 3.5 years of team control, too, and is the classic case of ‘Baseball Refernce bWAR loves him, and FanGraphs fWAR thinks he’s pedestrian.‘

If there’s a BBRef-worshipping franchise out there who comes calling for a starting pitcher, maybe it’s not a bad time to consider cashing in on Abbott for the same reasons.

It’s not the right time

RHP Hunter Greene, IF/OF Matt McLain, OF Noelvi Marte, RHP Rhett Lowder

Greene is precisely the kind of pitcher the Reds should want to be pitching for them the rest of the year. He just missed half a season due to surgery on a right elbow that already had Tommy John under their watch, and he’s controlled long-term. Moving him now would be selling incredibly low, and on top of that he needs to build up innings over the last half of 2026 to be fully ready to return to form in 2027.

Once he does that, then you maybe consider moving him as a cornerstone type arm, not as a dice-roll after surgery that nobody will overpay to acquire.

McLain likely has minimal, if any value right now since he’s been bad or hurt since midway through 2023. Still, he’s a former 1st round pick of two different franchises whose managers have constantly adored him, so someone would probably take a flier on him with multiple years of team control still remaining. However, I think his defense and versatility mean you hold on and give him him another shot in 2027 – ideally under the tutelage of a whole different hitting coach all winter long.

In Noelvi Marte, you still have something of a wild card. Injuries, suspensions, massive positional moves, and he’s still just 24 and oozing talent. You continue to roll the dice on him (especially if you begin a rebuild that doesn’t immediately prioritize winning) and hope he figures it out.

Lowder is something of the Marte version of the pitching staff. You simply wait to see more with him, as there were legitimate reasons (and still are) why he was valued so highly by so many so recently.

Can you even give them away?

IF Eugenio Suarez, RHP Emilio Pagan, OF TJ Friedl, C Jose Trevino

There is a lot (by Reds standards) of money tied to these four this year. Almost $35 million, in fact, and that’s given the Reds a combined -1.5 bWAR. Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but this foursome has been an epic failure so far in 2026.

Someone would probably take Suarez off the Reds hands on a bet he does have a hot streak in him somewhere, but they certainly wouldn’t a) give up anything of value to do that or b) do so without the Reds eating money. TJ Friedl might have a taker somewhere who thinks they can fix him – he does have an option left and has team control for two years – but it’d be such a sell-low that the return would be near nil.

The other two? Well, Pagan’s contract literally has a kicker that pays him more if he’s traded, and Trevino’s got almost zero trade value with that money tied to him despite being a pretty OK backup catcher (when not hurt all the time).

You can’t even give him away

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Hayes, whose back was a problem when the Reds acquired him from Pittsburgh last year and has been partially behind him being the worst hitter on the planet in 2026, has no trade value. Not with more than $30 million guaranteed to him going forward.

The Reds are stuck with him until they release him.

Do you actually want to give him away?

RHP Brady Singer

Singer has been better lately than he was during a brutal two-month start to the year, but he’s still not been great. What he has been, though, is perpetually reliable, and that’s something the Reds might actually need for the last half of the year.

If they dealt Abbott, or Nick Lodolo, who actually soaks up innings on this roster? Is it worth keeping Singer around at the prorated portion of his salary so that someone can actually go 5 IP every fifth day, especially once Chase Burns gets inevitably shut down?

Do you really trust Chase Petty, or Julian Aguiar to step right in and get through 6 IP every week?

You can make the case that Singer will have a small market, and that’s probably true. What I’m saying here, though, is that if the Reds move him and make a larger move to deal another established starter, Nick Krall is going to need a Zack Littell-esque move to literally have a body out there who can get enough outs to get through the end of the year. It’ll be hard to find one more apt at that for cheaper than what they’ve already got in Singer.

The bullpen

There are some pieces here that good teams will want. Good teams needing only fringe additions in the middle of their bullpen won’t be sending over future superstar talent to acquire them, but they’ll send enough to make the moves.

This is the Brock Burke, Caleb Ferguson, Pierce Johnson category. If the Reds eat a million here or there with this trio, they’ll be able to get legitimate wild card pieces who are years away. You do this as soon as you can if you are Krall, and you look immediately at where the current Reds bullpen ranks and realize it won’t fall any further down the rankings if you just bring back Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, Luis Mey, etc.

(That’s a long-term problem to fix. Get what you can from what few pillars there are there right now.)

Sam Moll is controllable again in 2027, so perhaps you keep him around. Someone will need to be a reliever on the Reds in 2027. Still, if someone comes calling for him, might as well move him, too.

The obvious movers

1B Nathaniel Lowe, C Tyler Stephenson

Lowe was released by the Washington Nationals mid-August last year and Boston brought him in for a successful month and a half that mimicked his work for years in Texas. Still, nobody wanted Lowe this offseason and he came to the Reds on a minor league deal and has, ever since, looked more or less like the typical Lowe. There’s just a very light market for that right now, though someone will likely send at least some cash to move him on.

Stephenson might have suitors, especially if any of the typical catching injuries pop up to a key player at an opportune time. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so the Reds may as well move him for what they can. If they want him back on a 1-year deal this winter, he’ll be a free agent and they’ve got his phone number after 11 years in the organization, after all.

The legitimately OK pieces

OF JJ Bleday, IF/OF Spencer Steer, LHP Nick Lodolo

Here’s why we wrote the article. It took us over 1600 words to talk about how little the Reds should legitimately shop this trade deadline, but we made it to this trio – JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, and Nick Lodolo.

They’re a trio that each come with team control beyond 2026 – 2027 for Lodolo, 2027 and 2028 for Bleday and Steer. Each has their own solid pedigree, too.

• Lodolo was twice drafted in the 1st round and was a consensus Top 100 prospect, and his 2025 season established an ability to be a front-line starter.
• Bleday was a Top 5 pick, posted a 20 homer season back with the A’s, and was the NL Player of the Month in May when he was the best hitter on the planet.
• Steer finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting, played in the Futures Game the year before, and has a streak of 20+ homer seasons sitting at three right now with 14 already this year, has a 20/25 season under his belt, and he plays all over defensively (even if it’s mediocre)

Nobody is trading for Bleday or Steer to come in and be the best position player on their team, but each would likely be given a significant complementary role for just about any team (especially with Steer’s defense and Bleday’s bat vs RHP). That paired with team control has a good bit of value, even if Bleday’s is dented by his uncermonious exit from the A’s organization.

It’s Lodolo, though, who has the chance to be the buy-low steal of this trade deadline, and that’s my pick for the most apt combination of biggest and best trade chip right now. He just poured in his best start of the year over the weekend, and the blister issues that dogged him early finally look like they’re in the past. He also has a reptuation as being ‘injury prone’ because yes, he has missed a lot of time over the years, but none of those has been a structural injury to a key part of his prized left arm.

There are a lot of miles left on Nick Lodolo, and while he might not get a fraction of the haul that Tarik Skubal will net the Tigers this deadline, you can make the claim (especially while pointing at 2025) that he’s got every bit the next-best upside of any arm on the block. So, there could be some decent bidding on him despite the totality of his 2026 stats looking pedestrian by his standards.

The Reds could certainly wait on him, hope he pitches like we know he can during the season’s second half, and shop him this winter. But that wouldn’t be during a playoff chase for teams, and demand – while broader – might not be as intensely focused.

If Lodolo continues to round back into form over the next four weeks, he’s the single best chip the Reds should move as sellers this trade deadline.

The last two weeks have been downright depressing in Yankeeland; that much is obvious. Pretty much every facet of the game has been agonizing to watch, and even though several of these games have been winnable towards the end, only one of them have ended in the win column over the last 10 games. While injuries are a big factor, it’s also just maddening regression from the 26 guys on the roster. If you removed the contributions of Aaron Judge and Max Fried from the team’s first two months, they’d still probably have the best record in the AL through mid-June. Their struggles are much more predicated on the guys on the roster stumbling over themselves.

The team is doing a lot less of a lot of things right now. They aren’t slugging. They aren’t making basic defensive plays. The rotation has only put up a zero twice to start the game in the last nine games. Some of this can be explained, though. The slugging drop-off makes sense with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined, along with a slump by Ben Rice. The defensive miscues make more sense with how players are being played out of position out of necessity. The rotation is experiencing natural regression from a strong start and is without Max Fried or Carlos Rodón.

Something that can’t be as easily explained is the other big part of a formidable Yankees offense vanishing, their ability to draw walks. That and hitting the long ball carry a whole lot of weight for an offense that’s usually among the game’s elite. Since mid-June, the team has gone from one of the best at taking the free pass to one of the worst:

Walk Rate:
Through June 16th: 11.3 percent (first in MLB)
Since June 17th: 7.1 percent (26th)

Sure, Judge and Trent Grisham are big reasons why the team has the league’s best walk rate, but even with their absence, the team should still be pretty good at it. Even if you remove their plate appearances from the sample, something that would not be a clear representative of the data, they drop to sixth in walk rate through mid-June at 10.3 percent.

The raw numbers tell the story of a team that, overall, is walking less across the board, but maybe not as much as you’d think given the drop off.

BB% since June 17, change from pre-June 17th:
Ryan McMahon: 7.8 percent to 11.8 percent (+4.0)
José Caballero: 5.6 percent to 7.3 percent (+1.7)
Amed Rosario: 6.2 percent to 7.3 percent (+1.1)
Cody Bellinger: 13.5 percent to 13.4 percent (-0.1)
Anthony Volpe: 12.6 percent to 12.3 percent (-0.3)
Jasson Domínguez: 4.9 percent to 2.9 percent (-2.0)
Ben Rice: 13.3 percent to 8.5 percent (-4.8)
Paul Goldschmidt: 8.3 percent to 3.4 percent (-4.9)
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 11.5 percent to 5.5 percent (-6.0)
Spencer Jones*: 13.2 percent to 6.8 percent (-6.4)
Austin Wells*: 13.6 percent to 0.0 percent (-13.6)

The asterisks for Jones and Wells are for their inconsistent playing time, but I want to key in on Wells, whose descent offensively has been both bewildering and incredibly tragic for both his psyche and the organization. Even when he was objectively bad the first few months of the season, he showed improved plate discipline. He was striking out less and walking more. Through May 30th, Wells had a 13.5 BB%, but has since not drawn a single walk in 45 plate appearances. You really have to wonder at this point if those headaches he had is something closer to an Anthony Rizzo situation with how far he’s even dropped off from his pre-IL stint’s plate discipline.

The three players who’ve improved their walk rates are McMahon, Caballero, and Rosario, but the latter two are still decently below average in that regard (MLB average is 9.0 percent). Bellinger and Volpe are still well above average themselves, but the problems start after them.

Rice’s decline is pretty stunning. You would expect a guy like him to actually walk more with Judge out as the premier threat, but teams are just not scared of him right now. Maybe how mortal he’s looked lately is contributing to it? It could also be that his chase rate has ballooned from 23.3 percent to nearly 30 percent. Goldschmidt and Chisholm don’t necessarily come to mind when you think about walks, but both were drawing them at a decent rate before a recent fall-off. Goldy’s faced a ton of lefties of late, likely prompting more aggressive swing decisions, while Chisholm’s is harder to quantify.

Looking deeper, the decrease in walk rate is inversely correlated with a spike in strikeout rate. They were striking out more than league average before this recent stretch, but it’s been even more so:

Strikeout Rate:
Through June 16th: 22.8 percent (20th in MLB)
Since June 17th: 26.6 percent (27th)

K-BB% is more of a pitcher’s stat, but to give you some context, we’ll use it on the offense. Through mid-June, pitchers against the Yankees had an 11.5 K-BB%, which is like Jeffrey Springs. Since then? It’s 19.5 percent, which is similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s self-explanatory.

The more contact-oriented hitters on the team are making less contact, especially Bellinger, who’s up to a 22.4 K% over the last three weeks. He’s never been someone afraid to chase to spoil a two-strike offering or serve a single to left field, but this isn’t helping. His chase and whiff rates are both up five percent in the last three weeks.

You’d think with Judge and Grisham out, the Yankees would be seeing a lot more pitches in the strike zone. After all, there’s a lot less firepower to be worried about, right? I guess not.

Batting Zone%:
Through June 16th: 41.5 percent
Since June 17th: 41.7 percent

Negligible. This isn’t, though:

Chase%:
Through June 16th: 30.3 percent (sixth lowest in MLB)
Since June 17th: 35.5 percent (fifth highest)

That’s probably what it drills down to. They’re pressing. They feel the pressure of the situation and are flailing at more pitches, being more aggressive. The team’s overall swing percentage has increased from 44.6 percent to 48.4 percent, going from one of the most passive teams to one of the most aggressive. Aggressiveness on hittable pitches is good. That’s a major reason why the offense shook off a slump in the first two weeks, as they started swinging at hittable pitches more. This time, they’re eating out of the pitcher’s hands. It’s not a winning formula.

It also doesn’t help that the pitching staff has them trailing before they can even pick up the bat. Here’s some stats from the last nine games:

• The Yankees have not scored first once
• The rotation allowed a run in the first seven times
• They trailed before coming to bat five times
• They’ve allowed 4+ runs in the first three innings five times

The only two times the game was scoreless after one inning were on June 28th against Boston and July 1st against Detroit. In those games, the offense was dead silent for eight innings, trailed 2-0 after eight, forced extra innings, and lost in extras despite both being very winnable.

All told, nobody is contributing and that blows, but what the team could really use right now as they head into a do-or-die four-game set at Tropicana Field is to breathe, be more selective, and take the advice of Passion Pit:

At the time that I am writing this, it appears that top prospect Owen Murphy is being called up, but its unclear when he will be deployed, though presumably he will either start today’s game or tomorrow’s. The scheduled starter has been Reynaldo Lopez for today’s game. Lopez is coming off his best start in a while, against the Cardinals. We’ll either be hoping for Reynaldo to build on that success, or perhaps more interestingly, a successful MLB debut from the Braves’ former first round pick Owen Murphy.

For New York, Freddy Peralta will start today’s game, as the series will be decided between an Atlanta win or a 2-2 split. After being one of the jewels of the offseason last offseason, being traded from Milwaukee, Peralta has not lived up to expectations in Flushing. He’s been nothing more than solid on performance and worse on run prevention, with a 4.81 ERA and a 4.16 xFIP. His velocity is perhaps down a tick and his pitch shapes have moved a touch toward his arm-side, but the big change has been his extension dropping from very good to average and his arm angle dropping 6 degrees. The Braves’ offense has been good this series, a much needed change from the last month of play, so let’s hope that continues against Peralta and the Braves can seal a nice 4-game series win over their disappointing rivals in New York.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Monday, July 6, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The 2026 MLB Draft starts this upcoming Saturday at noon, Chicago time. The Cubs have the 23rd pick of the first round. Rounds 1 through 4 will happen on Saturday and rounds 5 through 20 will be on Sunday. So yeah, they’re compressing the usual three days of the draft down to two days this year.

Before we look ahead to whom is available and whom the Cubs might take, it might be a good idea to look back at the Cubs’ last five drafts. These are the five drafts conducted by current Cubs scouting director Dan Kantrovitz. I don’t think there’s much use in going over earlier drafts conducted by different scouting directors.

It’s clear that Kantrovitz has a preference for college over high school players, at least in the first round. All five of his first-round picks have been from a four-year college. He is willing to grab a high school player after the first round and is willing to pay an over slot bonus to sign ones he likes. James Triantos, Drew Gray, Jackson Ferris, Nazier Mulé, Zyhir Hope, Kaleb Wing and Josiah Hartshorn are all types of raw talents out of high school that the Cubs took a chance on, but not in the first round.

Kantrovitz has also shown a willingness to gamble on higher-ceiling players who fell to the Cubs because of health questions. While Kantrovitz’s first first-rounder in Wicks was more of a safe, low-ceiling guy, Cade Horton was a bold pick of a pitcher who had barely pitched in college because of Tommy John surgery. Ethan Conrad was another player whom the Cubs would never have been able to get with the 17th pick had he been healthy.

I also think that the Cubs under Kantrovitz tend to pick more hitters than pitchers, with the exception of that wacky 2022 draft. Kantrovitz will claim that’s just how the talent falls.

You’ll also note that a lot of these players have been traded already. That’s a good sign that other teams want what the Cubs have been picking in the draft.

So let’s review the five Cubs drafts under Dan Kantovitz. The round is listed first, followed by the number of the overall pick in the draft in parenthesis. Also, just because I didn’t list someone in “others of note,” that doesn’t mean they’re not a prospect. There’s only so many of them I can list, especially for the more recent drafts when lots of players still show promise.

2021 Draft

1 (21) LHP Jordan Wicks Kansas State

2 (56) SS James Triantos James Madison HS (VA)

3 (93) LHP Drew Gray IMG Academy (FL)

4 (123) OF Christian Franklin Arkansas

5 (154) SS Liam Spence Tennessee

Others of note: RHP Riley Martin (6th round), 3B BJ Murray (15th)

In Kantrovitz’s first draft, he went with someone considered a safe, low-ceiling college player in Wicks. Wicks certainly hasn’t become that back-end starter they hoped for, but he is a major leaguer (for now) and may still end up as a kind of spot starter/bullpen arm.

Triantos has struggled to find a position and is blocked in Iowa. He’s having a good year there at 23, but has only developed fringy power. He’ll probably play in the majors somewhere. It may not be in Chicago.

Gray has struggled to stay healthy and he’s out for the season. Franklin was dealt to Washington in the Michael Soroka trade and is struggling in Triple-A. Spence was released after the 2024 season.

Martin, a fifth-year senior who signed for a $1000 bonus, has the highest bWAR of any 2021 Cubs draftees. Murray is leading the International League in hitting at age 26 this year. There may be a major league future for him yet, but time is running out.

2022 Draft

1 (7) RHP Cade Horton Oklahoma

2 (47) LHP Jackson Ferris IMG Academy

3 (86) SS Christopher Paciolla Temecula Valley (CA)

4 (113) RHP Nazier Mulé Passiac County Technical (NJ)

5 (143) RHP Brandon Birdsell Texas Tech

Others of note: RHP Mason McGwire (8th round), RHP Brody McCullough (10th round)

This is the draft that Kantrovitz went wild and took 16 pitchers out of 20 picks. Kantrovitz took a chance on Horton, who hadn’t pitched much in college because of Tommy John surgery. It looked like a brilliant move until Horton went down with elbow surgery again this year. If he bounces back like he did from the last surgery, it could still turn out to be a fantastic pick, because Horton finished second in Rookie of the Year balloting last year.

Ferris proved useful to the Cubs as part of the Michael Busch trade. Paciolla was a bust and has been released. Mulé throws 100 miles per hour but has struggled with control. He has improved slightly this year. Birdsell would probably be in the Cubs starting rotation right now as a back-of-the-rotation guy were he not also recovering from Tommy John surgery.

McGwire missed all of last year with injuries, but this year he looks like a future major league pitcher. McCullough looked like a 10th-round steal out of a Division II school who has missed most of the past 2 1/2 seasons with injuries. But he’s just returning to the mound now and is a decent prospect who could be a back-end starter or a bulk reliever.

2023 Draft

1 (13) SS Matt Shaw Maryland

2 (68) RHP Jaxon Wiggins Arkansas

3 (86) SS Josh Rivera Florida

4 (113) RHP Will Sanders South Carolina

5 (149) C Michael Carico Davidson College

Others of note: OF Alfonsin Rosario (6th round), 1B Jonathon Long (9th round), OF Zyhir Hope (11th round)

I don’t think I need to tell you much about Shaw. Probably not Wiggins either, other than he’s rehabbing his way back to Iowa and should probably feature in the Cubs pitching staff next year. Rivera was traded to the Blue Jays for Nate Pearson and is currently in Triple-A. Sanders is Iowa’s best starter this year, which isn’t saying much, but he does appear on most prospect lists and could be in the Cubs rotation next year. Or this year if the injuries get even worse. The Cubs have pretty much given up on Carico as a catcher and he’s now a 1B/DH, where his bat just isn’t special.

Long is a tantalizing prospect at the moment who could be a major league starter somewhere. It would help if he proves able to handle left field.

Rosario was traded to Cleveland for Eli Morgan. Hope was part of the Michael Busch trade and is now a top prospect.

2024 Draft

1 (14) 3B Cam Smith Florida State

2 (54) 3B Cole Mathis College of Charleston

3 (90) SS Ronny Cruz Miami Christian (FL)

4 (120) SS Ty Southisene Basic HS (NV)

5 (150) C Ariel Armas San Diego

Others of note: C Owen Ayers (19th round)

You know what happened to Cam Smith. You probably also know what happened to Mathis, who was just dealt to the Mets for David Peterson. Cruz was dealt with Franklin for Soroka last year. He’s struggling a bit in High-A, but he’s also 19 and in High-A, so that’s not really a bad sign.

Southisene is having a breakout season in South Bend, putting up high batting and on-base averages, but no power. He could be a Tommy La Stella or Nick Madrigal-type player with speed. Armas is one of the best defensive catchers in all of the minors. It’s up in the air if he can hit enough to hold a backup catcher’s job.

Ayers is the real steal of this draft and is having a breakout year. Beyond the .318 batting average and 21 home runs in South Bend and Knoxville combined, he’s reportedly making great strides as a handler of a pitching staff. He already has a cannon for an arm. Ayers may always be a bat-over-defense catcher, but he’s starting to look like the Cubs’ catcher of the future.

Either in spite of or because of the Cubs trading away their first three picks, this is starting to look like a very good draft. The Cubs may not benefit from it as much as they would have hoped by trading the first three picks away, but at least they’ve gotten something out of each pick.

2025 Draft

1 (17) OF Ethan Conrad Wake Forest

2 (59) OF Kane Kepley North Carolina

3 (90) RHP Dominick Reid Abilene Christian

4 (121) RHP Kaleb Wing Scotts Valley HS (CA)

5 (151) OF Kade Snell Alabama

Others of note: OF Josiah Hartshorn Orange Lutheran (CA)

It’s obviously too early to say much about this draft class other than Hartshorn is looking like a very wise pick in the sixth round. Conrad is another one of those players that Kantrovitz tried to get a bargain with by taking an injured player. As Conrad has just started playing in Mesa, it’s too early to judge the wisdom of that. Kepley is also looking like a good pick with a .438 OBP and 40 steals so far in South Bend.

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Looking for today's best MLB picks? Our baseball experts have you covered.

Neil Parker and Joe Osborne each highlight their favorite play from today's schedule, with the latest Polymarket prices and matchup analysis to help shape your betting card.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Neil Parker: Mets moneyline	+117
Joe Osborne: Dodgers -1.5	-115

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Mets moneyline

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves have dropped to 29th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA through 21 games without star Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), while the New York Mets comfortably sit 16th and eighth in the two metrics. Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez also sports a 4.60 xFIP across his seven 2026 starts that’s well above his 3.34 ERA, so statistical corrections looms.

It’s just the opposite with New York righty Freddy Peralta, too. He’s held opposing hitters to the sixth-lowest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 75 innings to pave the way for a respectable 3.78 xERA that’s way below his 4.81 ERA. Peralta also has statistical correction coming to his unsustainably low 68.7% strand rate.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, BravesVision

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5

Price: 54¢ (-115) at Polymarket

A perfect storm has formed for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight with the Colorado Rockies coming to town. Los Angeles has demolished left-handed pitching over the past two weeks, leading MLB in OPS, and now gets a crack at Kyle Freeland, who's completely fallen apart with a 7.25 ERA through 15 starts.

Dodgers hitters have also crushed him for a .918 OPS across 200 combined at-bats. Eric Lauer has helped LA go a perfect 5-0 in his starts, while the Dodgers have won 10 straight home games against Colorado and are 13-1 in their last 14 following a loss, which is the situation tonight after losing to the Padres yesterday.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rockies.TV, SNLA

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

A year ago today, the trajectory of the Washington Nationals changed drastically. Manager Davey Martinez and President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo were fired on July 6th, 2025. The duo had led the Nats to a World Series title in 2019, but in the midst of a disappointing season, it was clear that they were no longer the right men to lead the franchise forward. 

After the World Series in 2019, the Nats quickly aged out of contention, and the lack of depth on the farm meant that there were no replacements. In 2021, Mike Rizzo decided to sell off veteran pieces and lead the franchise into a rebuild. With a World Series ring only a couple years prior, Rizzo and Martinez were allowed to lead the Nats into this new era.

In 2022, the reality of the rebuild set in. This would be an even longer process than expected. That meant 23 year old future Hall of Famer Juan Soto had to be traded. The move was a painful one, but it turned out to be the best decision Mike Rizzo made in the rebuild. He got three cornerstone pieces in James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore.

However, Rizzo’s lack of success in the draft and Martinez’s archaic coaching staff meant the fruits of that trade could not be fully realized. By 2025, the Nats were stuck. They had nice pieces, but there was a clear disconnect between the coaching staff and the players, and the roster was far too top heavy. With the Nats sitting at 37-53, the Lerner family made the big decision to fire Rizzo and Martinez.

A year later, that decision is looking very wise. Right now, the Nats are above .500 with a 46-45 record. Under Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, the organization has quickly modernized and embraced analytics in a way that they had not in the past. A big story this spring was how much new technology the Nats had. Between the trajekt machine, weighted bats and more, the Nats were finally embracing 2020’s baseball.

As you can see with the record, this new approach is paying immediate dividends. The Nats did not improve their record by going out and signing big name free agents. In fact, the Nats barely spent any money at all. Toboni’s three biggest free agent signings were Miles Mikolas, Zack Littell and Foster Griffin. 

The Nats biggest offseason move was actually to sell one of their core pieces away. After an offseason of speculation, MacKenzie Gore was shipped off to Texas for a five prospect haul. So far, that move is looking good, with Devin Fitz-Gerald becoming a top 100 prospect, and Gore failing to take the next step.

I am not going to sit here and say that Toboni’s trade history has been perfect. He has made a few moves that look dicey right now, such as the Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer swap and the Jake Bennett for Luis Perales deal. Toboni has also struggled to build a competent bullpen, much like Mike Rizzo had for the past few seasons.

However, it would be difficult to argue that the Toboni impact has been negative. He has made good moves like the Gore deal, the Foster Griffin signing and the Curtis Mead trade. His biggest impact though has been putting a development system in place that is helping improve players on the roster.

Right now, the Nationals have scored the most runs in all of baseball. Just about every player on the offensive side of the ball has improved. Already productive players like James Wood and CJ Abrams have taken the next step. However, the biggest success stories have been among guys who had previously been written off.

I thought I knew who Luis Garcia Jr. was. My perception of him has changed drastically in the past month though. He is swinging the bat harder, hitting the ball harder and hitting it in the air more often. That has led to an insane hot streak where he has 10 homers in his last 15 games. Garcia has already set a career high with 19 home runs.

Keibert Ruiz’s turnaround is a great example of what a new coaching staff can do. His career looked to be dead and buried after last season. He was awful on both sides of the ball, and had injury issues. Ruiz’s long term contract looked like an absolute albatross. With the help of catching coach Bobby Wilson and the rest of the Nats staff, Ruiz is having a career year.

He is hitting .285 with a .788 OPS while playing well above average defense. Despite not producing the last couple years, we knew that Ruiz had some offensive upside. The defensive turnaround has been nothing short of miraculous and the changes happened seemingly overnight. That is great work by the new coaching staff, but also a real indictment on the old staff.

By the end of his tenure with the Nats, Davey Martinez seemed stubborn and standoffish. He would rather go down with the ship than make any changes to his coaching staff. That stubbornness came to a head during his famous “never on coaching” rant.

A year after his firing, it sure seems like coaching does matter. Players like Ruiz, Garcia and Mead have been totally unlocked by this coaching staff. There is still room to grow, but for the first time in a while, you can really see coaches making players better. That is what they are here to do after all.

Blake Butera embodies the development first mentality that the Nats have. This should not come as a shock given the fact that the 33 year old worked in player development for the Rays prior to taking this job. He has given some great quotes about the importance of pre-game work and about how players are still not finished products when they get to the big leagues. This coaching staff is trying to make every player better, even grizzled veterans like Miles Mikolas.

The dedication to improving players is my favorite part of this new regime, and it is the biggest change. They are clearly working very hard to make these guys better, and they are seeing the fruits of their labor.

This is not just happening on the major league side either. We have seen some big breakouts on the farm as well. Seaver King had a disastrous first pro season, but after going in the lab with the new braintrust, he looks like a different player. He is hitting the ball harder, chasing less and whiffing less.

A year after the firings of Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez, the Nationals are in a much better position. Sure, a lot of the main pieces contributing to this team were brought in by the old regime, but it is the new regime that is unlocking them.