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It's the first full week of May, and that dinger weather is knocking on the door. There are some great spots today with a lot of +EV home run props and MLB player props. Let's dig out our favorites today on a board with some bad starters and good wind. 

Michael Busch is in a great spot to break out of a home run drought with the wind blowing to right field at Wrigley today. I'll also circle some big-time power possibilities for Cal Raleigh and William Contreras.

These are my favorite home run props for Monday, May 4. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
William Contreras	+650
Cal Raleigh	+390
Michael Busch	+378
💲Today's HR parlay	+15121

Home run pick: William Contreras (+650)

The St. Louis Cardinals could be giving up runs from start to finish today, with Kyle Leahy sporting some of the worst BlastContact numbers and HR/FB rates among MLB starters. He’s a groundball pitcher, but when the ball gets elevated, it’s leaving the yard — and that has William Contreras written all over it.

Contreras has the best BlastContact% on the Milwaukee Brewers over the last two weeks and an elite Ideal Attack Angle, ranking second in baseball at 81.4% over that span.

The right-handed bat also benefits from a double-digit wind blowing out to left. Once he’s through with Leahy, he’ll get a crack at the Cardinals' bullpen, which has one of the worst ERAs in baseball lately.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Brewers.TV

Home run pick: Cal Raleigh (+390)

It’s not every day we get +EV on a stick like Cal Raleigh, but today is the day to back a big name at value. This is the top +EV home-run play on the board, per Covers projections, and has a fair price of +290. 

Raleigh draws a strong matchup vs. JR Ritchie, who has been fortunate with a .227 BABIP and carries shaky HR/FB numbers in a small sample. His ground-ball rate won’t bail him out much, and Atlanta Braves starters tend to be pushed into the 90–95 pitch range even with subpar stuff.

Ritchie has been tougher on righties, but all three homers he’s allowed have come off left-handed bats — and the switch-hitting Raleigh has six of his seven homers vs. RHPs.

There’s some risk after Raleigh sat out yesterday with right-side soreness, but a recent MRI came back clean. He took BP on Sunday and said he’s feeling better. The bat wasn’t slowing down anyway, with five homers over his last 11 games.  

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, BravesVision

Home run pick: Michael Busch (+378)

You’re looking at one of the best HR environments on the board at Wrigley Field. With ~16 mph winds blowing out to right field, and temps around 70°F, the carry is significantly boosted — ideal for left-handed power.

Michael Busch gets a great matchup vs. Chase Petty, who is making his season debut for the big club after being just average at Triple-A. He logged six innings last year with the Cincinnati Reds and gave up three home runs on 14 hits. He also threw just 2 1/3 innings in his last outing and will likely hand things off early to a bullpen primed for regression.

Busch hasn’t gone deep in nine straight games, but he had an extra-base hit in every game vs. Arizona and finished that series 5-for-10 with 10 total bases.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Marquee

Today’s HR parlay

William Contreras	Bet Now +15121
Cal Raleigh
Michael Busch

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Dodgers offense reached its nadir to date in 2026 last week, failing to hit a home run in any of their six games, losing four — two each to the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals. It’s the longest home run drought for Los Angeles in a dozen years.

Batter of the week

The choices on offense were sparse here, but we’ll go with Max Muncy with his two doubles, four singles, and three walks, narrowly over Teoscar Hernández with his five singles and five walks. No Dodgers regular had an OPS of at least .800 last week.

Honorable mention to Alex Call, who had three hits in six at-bats.

Pitcher of the week

Justin Wrobleski did not strike any Cardinals out on Sunday but still pitched six scoreless innings, something not done by a Dodgers pitcher in 35 years. Wrobleski since joining the rotation has 29 scoreless innings in his 31 frames.

A close call over Shohei Ohtani, who struck out nine in his six innings on Tuesday, while allowing two runs (one earned) against the Marlins.

Week 6 results

2-4 record
16 runs scored (2.67 per game)
20 runs allowed (3.33 per game)
.399 pythagorean win percentage

Year to date

21-13 record
175 runs scored (5.15 per game)
112 runs allowed (3.29 per game)
.694 pythagorean win percentage (24-10)

Transactions

Tuesday: Oklahoma City got another Fitzgerald, which the Dodgers acquiring infielder Tyler from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations. Landon Knack was moved to the 60-day injured list to make roster room.

Game results

• Monday: Dodgers 5, Marlins 4
• Tuesday: Marlins 2, Dodgers 1
• Wednesday: Marlins 3, Dodgers 2
• Friday: Cardinals 7, Dodgers 2
• Saturday: Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2
• Sunday: Dodgers 4, Cardinals 1

Previous reviews: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

Up next

The Dodgers run the Sonny Jackson gauntlet this week, finishing up the road trip with three games against the Astros in Houston, then return home to host the first-place Atlanta Braves in Los Angeles.

The Kansas City Royals are putting a terrible losing streak far behind them, and a winning West Coast stint solidifies their positive trajectory.

Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco open recapping of the Royals’ series victory against the Seattle Mariners, examining what that win reveals about the team’s trajectory while also putting their West Coast struggles in honest perspective. One of the brightest storylines right now is both the bullpen’s performance and the outfield’s improvements at the plate — breaking down what’s made them effective and what their continued development could mean for the roster.

Injury updates await for Jonathan India, Ryan Bergert, Ben Kudrna, and others, offering context on roster depth and how the coaching staff might manage those absences heading into a critical stretch of divisional play. In one of the episode’s more thought-provoking segments, the conversation ventures into the science of pitching injuries and what future medical advancements might mean for pitcher health and roster management league-wide.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

The FCL Braves are the lowest United States based affiliate of the Atlanta Braves, and they opened their 2026 season on Saturday. This is our chance to take a look at their Opening Day roster, which is filled with a bunch of teenagers, as well as some well known injured names.

Injured Guys

This is where you will find Raudy Reyes, Rayven Antonio, and also Marcos Pol. Those three are presently the only three guys listed on the IL. Reyes will miss the year thanks to a spring Tommy John, while Antonio and Pol’s statuses are less known. You will also see Luke Sinnard on this roster, but since he is listed as active you can find him with the pitchers.

Pitchers

There are two big names here on the active roster, Luke Sinnard and Briggs McKenzie. Briggs McKenzie was the team’s fourth round pick last year, but received the highest signing bonus at $3M. The North Carolina prep arm is still waiting to make his professional debut, but it will be highly anticipated. Luke Sinnard was the team’s third round pick in 2024, and injuries have slowed his career slightly – but he made 16 strong starts between Augusta and Rome last year in his pro debut, followed by five more starts in the Arizona Fall League. Sinnard has not yet appeared in a game this year after opening his season in extended spring training, but his stay here is expected to be short as they build him back up. Cristobal Abreu is a big armed reliever who opened the season in Augusta, but was sent down after walking eight in his first three innings of work. That was his first time appearing since getting injured in 2024, so they have decided to slow him down a little bit – not surprising since he just turned 20.

Among the players acquired via the draft and undrafted free agents, Cayman Goode was a slightly overslot 12th rounder out of high school in 2024. Goode was considered a bit raw, and his results here last year indicated that as he pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 25 strikeouts and 16 walks over 35.1 innings in his pro debut. Ryan Heppner was the 19th round pick out of a Canadian college last year, and he too opened this year in Augusta, but was sent down after giving up 10 runs over his 4.1 innings – though he did throw two and a third scoreless frames in on Opening Day.. Brody Fowler was the 17th rounder out of North Greenville last year, and is still waiting to make his pro debut, as is 16th round pick from last year Nico Wagner out of West Valley College. Daniel Brooks is a larger framed undrafted free agent out of College of Charleston waiting to make his pro debut, while Will Eldridge was an undrafted free agent out of Indiana, who made his debut on Opening Day in a save opportunity.

Among the international signees on the roster Luisberth Valdez is an 18-year-old who pitched to a 4.91 ERA with 34 strikeouts over 29.1 innings in his DSL debut last season. Gensi Angeles, the Opening Day starter this year, is also 18 and pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, but with just 24 strikeouts over 35.1 innings in his DSL debut last year. Wuilinyer Tovar is an 18-year-old who made his pro debut in the DSL last year, pitching to a 6.83 ERA. Jorge Nunez is an 18-year-old who repeated in the DSL last year, and dropped his ERA from 4.02 to 2.57. Yander Pinero is an 18-year-old who also repeated in the DSL, dropping his ERA from 6.75 to 3.57. Melvin Hidalgo is a 20-year-old who made his pro debut last year as an older DSL player, as did the 22-year-old Dayner Matos, 21-year-old Robinson Narciso, and 21-year-old Cesar Rodriguez. Edward Cedano is repeating the FCL this year, after also repeating the DSL previously, but he is still just 20-years-old, and did show growth last time he repeated a level. Juan Olmos is a 21-year-old former catcher in the Royals organization who only converted to pitching last year for the first time.

Catchers

Yoelvis Betancourt is a 17-year-old making his stateside debut after slashing .260/.393/.344 in 122 plate appearances in the DSL last season. Arlenn Manzanillo is 18, but also made his debut in the DSL last year and is coming to the US for the first time this year. Manzanillo posted a .540 OPS last year, though he did have a .319 on base percentage giving him some silver lining. Johan Rodriguez is also 18 and coming to the US for the first time this year. He slashed .225/.309/.271 in the DSL over 149 plate appearances, but he posted an OPS of at least .662 in both June and July, before a rough month of August made his stat line look worse. He brings some defensive versatility, playing mostly at first base last year too. Luis Parababire is a 20-year-old in his third season here. He posted a .900 OPS in 24 games in 2024, but just .600 in 15 games last year.

Infielders

The biggest name in the infield has to be Manuel Campos. The 18-year-old infielder signed for basically $150k last year and went to the DSL and slashed .291/.395/.380 with six doubles, two triples, two homers, and 13 steals with 20 walks to 31 strikeouts in 218 plate appearances. Campos split last year between second base and shortstop, but played short almost twice as often and got the Opening Day start there. Malvin Fernandez is a 17-year-old who played second, third, and short last year, slashing .195/.340/230 in 141 plate appearances in his professional debut in the DSL. Juan Elejandro played mostly at second, but got some time at third last year, and the now 18-year-old is coming off slashing .248/.369/.301 in 141 plate appearances in his pro debut in the DSL last year. Mario Baez is in his third straight year in the FCL, but is still just in his age-19 season. After posting a promising .815 OPS in the DSL in 2023, Baez has only posted .515 and .604 marks in his two seasons in the FCL, spanning 95 games combined.

Outfielders

The star that most people are eager to see is Diego Tornes, the Braves big money international signee from last winter. Tornes sat out Opening Day, but he has lived up to the hype so far, slashing .279/.395/.402 with 10 extra base hits and 24 steals in 32 DSL games last season. Michael Martinez is also a familiar name to some, as he slashed .316/.435/.649 with three homers in 16 DSL games last year, before getting into 11 FCL games and slashing .237/.310/.474 with two more homers. Tornes is just 17, while Martinez is now 19, and those two will be among the biggest names to watch on this FCL club. Juan Espinal is here for the first time. Espinal repeated the DSL last year, seeing his OPS jump from .587 to .845, though he still had 63 strikeouts in 190 plate appearances. He has big power, but the 19-year-old will need to continue developing his hit tool. Gabriel Cesa is also a 19-year-old making his US debut. Cesa repeated the DSL last year and saw his OPS jump from .477 to .833 with seven extra base hits in 118 plate appearances.

Worcester: L, 3-6 (BOX SCORE)

Jack Anderson got taken for a ride in that middle relief spot as the Red Wings (Nationals AAA) put this one out of reach for the WooSox. While Worcester didn’t have the same luck the Red Sox did with runners in scoring position, going 3-for-8, the lack of baserunners to drive in – eight on the day including just two doubles – was the difference on Sunday. Vinny Capra and Anthony Seigler continue to bolster the offense of the folks playing infield. But, outside of those two, the WooSox only had two guys get hits in the lineup, which wouldn’t have gotten it done.

Portland: W, 11-4 (BOX SCORE)

The Sea Dogs didn’t truly run away with this game in Somerset (Yankees AA) until the middle innings, behind the bat of Johanfran Garcia. Password’s brother – and a solid catcher in his own right – belted his third home run of the season and had four RBIs. Nelly Taylor, who’s been stably climbing the organizational ladder, pulled the game further into Portland’s sights. But this game wouldn’t be as decisive if not for six innings from Hayden Mullins in which he got ten strikeouts and allowed just two hits. And this was after Sunday afternoon’s starter… Justin Slaten! Slaten rehabbing is huge for the pitching staff; but it doesn’t help the injured rotation if not to simply eat some relief innings.

Greenville: L, 1-7 (BOX SCORE)

Some troubles in the Greenville rotation – Marcus Phillips couldn’t make it out of the fifth but the offense kept up until it simply couldn’t. The bats were there when they had to be, scoring all of their runs in the fifth and sixth innings, including a three-run shot by Mason White that put this thing within reach, but the Spartanburgers (Astros High-A) scored another couple runs in the seventh innings and the Drive couldn’t even it back up.

Salem: : L, 3-4 (F/10) (BOX SCORE)

This game was tied up at two going into extras, and the pitching kept the Warbirds (Brewers A) in check, but Salem was unable to take advantage of this, going 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position on Sunday. This was despite nine-hole hitter Ilan Fernandez going 4-for-4 with three doubles. Ultimately, the RidgeYaks got walked off in the tenth off of a home run after scoring just the Manfred runner in the top of the inning.

May the fourth be with you this Monday.

Well now, that feels much, much better, doesn’t it? After getting their manager fired with their poor play on the field, the Phillies turned around and swept the inept Giants, then took two of three in Miami before wrapping that series up today. It’s pretty impressive what good play will do for a team.

Three up

Zack Wheeler – Boy, it’s just nice having him back in the rotation. I know I wrote about him last week and how he looked good in the first start he made even if the results were so-so, but this week, he looked good and had good results to go with it. I think it was Tom McCarthy who talked about how when Wheeler is on the mound, it’s similar to when Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee in 2011 were on the mound: you just kind of expected to win the game they were pitching in. That’s a nice feeling to have.

Chase Shugart – Listen, let’s give credit where it’s due. Shugart has been a nice story this season. His fastball/sweeper combination has kept batters off the bases and he has missed barrels so far in the batter’s box. His being able to come on in a doubleheader and pitching in and win both games is commendable as they can be pitching staff crushers. Shugart ghostbusted the runner in the second game (hat tip, Phillies Therapy), which is a huge lift to a team that has to equal or better what is done in the top half of the tenth inning in an extra inning affair. Can he keep it up? Maybe! The team is likely just thankful he’s been competent so far.

Jesus Luzardo – Maybe it was Rob Thomson’s fault that Luzardo had been off at the beginning of the season. Because in two starts since Don Mattingly took over, Luzardo threw 13 1/3 innings and struck out 18, walking nobody. Coincidence? I think not.

Three down

Rafael Marchan – Marchan is not a major league hitter and should not be thought of as such. The idea that he and Garrett Stubbs and J.T. Realmuto should exist on the same roster is patently absurd, but this is the path that Don Mattingly and Dave Dombrowski have chosen. However, Marchan has been absolutely dreadful at the plate and should not have his defensive prowess behind the plate outweigh the fact that major league pitching is vexing to him.

Felix Reyes – Yeah, it’s probably time to send Reyes back to Lehigh Valley to get him some more playing time. If an outfielder is needed, best to bring back Bryan de la Cruz and let him twist in the 40-man roster limbo wind for a bit. Reyes is just proving he isn’t major league ready just yet (and that’s ok!).

The Phillies’ front office – First, the news came out that they were trying to hire Alex Cora before firing Thomson, then they just went ahead and fired Thomson anyway. Seems a bit bumbling if you asked me. Then, they had fans come to a game on Tuesday that was eventually rained out, but not before people were already there and in their seats. Maybe “bumbling” would be being kind with this one. Just not a couple of days of good looks here for the front office.