Lehigh Valley IronPigs 5, Worcester Red Sox 4 (BOX)

After falling behind 3-0 early, the Woo Sox battled back to tie the game on three solo home runs. Max Ferguson hit his first of the year, Tyler McDonough his second, and Tsung-Che Cheng his seventh. Cheng had a big day, going 3-for-5. Mikey Romero and Allan Castro also contributed two hits apiece, part of a 13-hit effort from the Woo Sox. Kristian Campbell (.217 BA) was 1-for-4.

Starter Raymond Burgos went five innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out four. Devin Sweet fell to 1-4 in relief, allowing two runs in the sixth inning to the IronPigs (PHI) for the loss. 

Worcester will play at 6:45 this evening and has not yet announced a starter. 

Portland Sea Dogs 7, Somerset Patriots 6 (BOX)

The Sea Dogs matched the Woo Sox effort with 13 hits of their own against Somerset (NYY) on Thursday, and were able to pull out a one-run affair. Portland got two-hit efforts from Marvin Alcantara, Will Turner, Brooks Brannon, and Stanley Tucker. A home run from Will Turner capped a four-run second inning, as well. 

Hayden Mullins struggled in the start for the Sea Dogs, allowing nine baserunners and three runs in three innings. Michael Sansone got the win, going 5 ⅔ innings, and allowing three runs, before giving way to Cade “don’t call me George” Feeney for the save. Yes, Mister Matthews. 

John Holobetz (3-3, 4.70) will toe the rubber at 6:00 tonight. 

Jersey Shore BlueClaws 8, Greenville Drive 5 (BOX)

A 1-1 game entering the fifth, things got ugly fast against the BlueClaws (PHI), when they exploded for a seven run inning. Tyler Davis allowed six of those runs, getting the loss. The Drive fought back a bit in the eighth inning with four runs, including a Luke Heyman home run, part of a two-hit day. Yophery Rodriguez also homered, his 11th, in the loss. 

The Drive will send Kyson Witherspoon (2-3, 5.28) to the hill at 7:05. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Fredericksburg Nationals 5 (BOX)

The RidgeYaks had just six hits on the day, but still managed to get ten runs, thanks to eight walks from Fredericksburg (WAS) and two errors. 

Salem got three runs apiece in the second, seventh, and ninth innings. Right fielder Andrews Opata homered in the ninth inning to break the game open. Avinson Pinto and Andruw Musett each had two RBI games. 

Control was not the story of the day in this one, as Salem pitching walked twelve, to go along with the eight from the Nationals. Six of those walks came from reliever Joey Gartrell. Cole Tolbert didn’t allow an earned run in three innings as the starter, and Harry Blum got the win with 2 ⅔ hitless innings. 

Brady Tygart (0-0, 5.79) takes the mound at 6:35 tonight for the ‘Yaks. 

You probably don’t remember the hiccup in time when infielder Otto Lopez was a San Francisco Giant, but it did happen. For 5 weeks or so, the team had a 25-year old second baseman who had hit .300/.365/.413 in 2,255 minor league plate appearances. Then, they designated him for assignment and he was claimed by the Marlins. Since then, he’s hit .275/.322/.395 across 2+ seasons (1,343 plate appearances) and with some well above average defense has amassed 7.8 fWAR. This year, he’s playing at an All-Star level: .336/.368/.473 (132 wRC+), 2.9 fWAR. He’s been exactly as valuable as Luis Arraez, but was this another miss by the previous front office?

You know, it’s pretty interesting to chart how we got to the “Aw, geez, I’m just trying to figure it out; baseball is hard” dynamic of the current front office. A general disgust and distrust of computer numbers and “phantom” value, certainly some anti-Dodger sentiment mixed in, and the inability to find a proper post-Bochy figurehead in the dugout; but mainly, the missteps and misfires piled up. I think six seasons was good and plenty for that experiment, but I’m starting to wonder if Buster Posey & Zack Minasian are simply speedrunning the Zaidi era.

Both Posey & Zaidi were both wiz kids in their respective areas of the industry. Both hired similarly inexperienced GMs to work under them. Both hired new managers after their first season on the job — those managerial choices were extremely controversial (for wholly different reasons, of course). Those managers were both well-groomed and appearance-focused. They both were prone to word salad. They both ticked off beat writers and fans alike for basically the same reason. Their managerial choices were somewhat inscrutable, though Gabe Kapler’s strategizing worked out more often than Vitello’s has. But, Buster has undermanaged and understrategized with the roster while Zaidi overmanaged and overstrategized. Both have had managers receive their vote of confidence only to see that manager lose control of the clubhouse (or, in Vitello’s case, never really seem to have had it at all). The key difference might be the upcoming minor league talent, which appears to be thriving a lot more under the new regime.

I mention all this because the Miami Marlins, led by Peter Bendix as the President of Baseball Operations, and now Gabe Kapler as their GM, seem to be what it would’ve looked like if the Zaidi era had gone right. A steady stream of important trades and savvy waiver & rule 5 pickups coalescing into a scrappy team that doesn’t cost much but stays competitive. Part of that is “analytics,” sure, but I’m not blind to the Marlins having a lot of useful inventory to sell over the years and get back some quality, well-scouted (both by human scouts and data analysts) major league talent. Their primary starting lineup does not scream home grown:

C —1st round pick (2021)
1B — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
2B — Acquired in trade with Rays for a pair of minor leaguers (2022)
3B — International free agent signing (2019)
SS — Waiver claim (2024)
LF — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
CF — Acquired in trade with Padres for Luis Arraez (2024)
RF — Acquired in trade with Cubs for Edward Cabrera (2026)
DH — Rule 5 pick (2024)

For this, the Marlins have a middle of the pack lineup (97 wRC+). I didn’t look at the pitching side, but that’s the 10th best in MLB heading into this series. If you’re the Marlins, you need to be able to stay on top of the roster by constantly reinventing it, but if you’re the Giants, all you really have to do — and, it’s not easy, as they’ve shown — is build a roster that is then supplemented by free agents rather than need to rely on them. A quick comparison.

C — Rule 5 pick (2025)
1B — Acquired in trade with the Red Sox for a bunch of dudes (2025)
2B — Free agent (2026)
3B — Free agent (2024)
SS — Free agent (2024)
LF — 2nd round pick (2020)
CF — Gilbert: trade, Bader: free agent
RF — Free agent (2023)
DH — 1st round pick (2023)

Of course, the real comparison point is the results. Since Buster Posey took over, the Giants are 112-124. The Marlins over this same span are just 116-121. Well, okay, that’s not right. The other comparison point is the cost. The Giants have committed $376.2 million since the start of last season while the Marlins have only committed $144.7 million. There’s also a bit more of a lottery ticket/upside play going on with the roster — and if any of the younger players really blossom, they become trade bait that can help refresh the system and the cycle can start anew.

Has the Marlins’ approach been better? Hard to say. But the Giants have been penny wise and pound foolish. Ditching the thought of Kevin Gausman only to spend a lot more money finding a #2 starter. Their inability to draft, develop, or acquire younger players has necessitated resorting to free agency again and again.

But this ship has sailed. The Giants have turned away from the analytical approach and the notion of building a roster from the bottom up — unless, of course, Randy Winn has really transformed the Giants’ farm system into a real winner, because that would really be nice, and there wouldn’t have to be much too much consternation when a player leaves the Giants and is productive elsewhere.

Who: San Francisco Giants (31-43) at Miami Marlins (37-38)
Where: loanDepot park | Miami, Florida
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None

Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.24 ERA) vs. Lake Bachar (RHP 0-0, 2.97 ERA)
Saturday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-4, 4.64 ERA) vs. Max Meyer (RHP 7-0, 2.75 ERA)
Sunday: Logan Webb (RHP 4-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP 0-2, 7.24 ERA)

Players to watch

Marlins

Liam Hicks: In June, he’s been just slightly better than Otto Lopez, posting a 159 wRC+ to Lopez’s 152. He’s done so by hitting for a bit more power (.189 ISO) and a higher on base (.422) thanks to impressive walk and strikeout rates (13.8% and 10.8%, respectively). On the season, he’s hitting .280/.362/.477 with 13 home runs and 52 RBI, a 10.2% walk rate and 9.5% strikeout rate. The Marlins got him in the Rule 5 draft from Detroit. The 27-year old left-handed first baseman/catcher has been another impressive find by the Marlins’ front office.

Kyle Stowers: He was the main piece of the Trevor Rogers deal with the Orioles back in 2024 and quickly became their middle of the lineup hitter, posting an impressive .912 OPS last season in 457 PA. He started this year on the IL and got off to a fast start (6-for-his-first-15), but it was a rough April and May after those first four games (.198/.276/.331 in 134 PA). However, in June, he’s picked it back up, with a line of .241/.323/.537 in 63 PA. He’s hit 4 homers and driven in 16 over this span, too. He has an .841 career OPS against the Giants, too (44 PA).

Lake Bachar: Don’t be fooled by the name. He might sound like a sixth-billed sitcom star from the 80s, but he has swing-and-miss stuff throughout his arsenal. A ~95 mph four-seamer hitters have just a .190 BA against; a 2,669 rpm slider with a 45.5% Whiff rate, a similarly wipeout sweeper, a curveball that has a 37.5% whiff rate, a splitter, and a sinker. He’s basically a reliever, but because the Marlins have two starters on the IL (Janson Junk and Eury Perez), they’ve resorted to opener/bullpen game situations, and you can see how this arsenal makes him a perfect option. This month, Bachar has appeared in 5 games, starting 3 of them, and in 10.2 innings combined he’s struck out 13, walked 3, allowed just 3 hits and a run (0.84 ERA / 1.78 FIP).

Giants

Jung Hoo Lee: .364/.391/.364 in 6 games (23 PA) at loanDepot park and in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 80 PA) he’s hitting .468/.475/.597 with a homer, a triple, 5 doubles, 3 stolen bases, just 1 walk (oof), but only 3 strikeouts.

Luis Arraez: .349/.385/.454 in 105 games (446 PA) at loanDepot park is a good sign, I think. Also, in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 129 PA), he’s hitting .339/.362/.513 with a pair of homers, 4 triples, and 6 doubles. He spent about 7 months in a Marlins uniform but was an All-Star for them in 2023 (.354/.393/.469 over the whole season). Chances are he’ll be the Giants’ sole representative this season… unless he’s traded before the All-Star Game.

Logan Webb: He certainly looks like he’s returned to form after that IL stint. He’s made just 2 starts in his career at loanDepot park (yes, the ‘p’ in park is lower case), but they came in 2022 & 2023; so, is his 6.35 ERA in 11.1 innings a portent or a fluke? The Giants are hoping for the latter, of course, and Miami’s middle of the pack strikeout rate and high groundball rate for a lineup (43.8% — 5th in MLB) certainly suggests that a Logan Webb who’s on point will be setup to have another great game.

Prediction time

This section sure has gone off the rails, hasn’t it? I blame myself, of course, but it would be nice if I could put a poll down here in place of any rambling narrative I think up at the last minute, don’t you think? Anyway, the Giants took 2 out of 3 from the Marlins back in April, which seems impossible given how bad the team has been this season, and the Giants have also taken the series in Miami the last two seasons, which also seems impossible, given how tough the Marlins have been on the Giants, historically.

Yhe Marlins are running out two relievers to stanch the bleeding in their rotation, but they’re also 23-16 at home this season with a +30 run differential. Hmm. But the Giants also have their two best starters going in the series, and even if one of them is unsalvageable bigot, I’ll still say the Giants manage to win the series.

The Phillies 3-9 record against the current three NL division leaders — Braves, Dodgers and Brewers — tells a pretty clear story.

Those three clubs are all significantly better than Philadelphia.

It was clear to see on the field in the two series against Atlanta, the series in Los Angeles and in the Phils’ trip to Milwaukee.

Here is how the Phils have fared against clubs currently holding down a playoff spot in the National League:

• Los Angeles Dodgers (1-2)
• Atlanta Braves (1-5)
• Milwaukee Brewers (1-2)
• San Diego Padres (6-0)
• Washington Nationals (2-1)

That’s a collective 11-10 record, although more than half of those victories came against one team, the Padres.

If you factor in the American League playoff teams they’ve played, it looks like this:

• Chicago White Sox (2-1)
• Cleveland Guardians (1-2)
• Athletics (2-1)

That would improve their record against current playoff teams to 16-14, 10-14 against teams not called the San Diego Padres.

Where the Phillies are doing real damage is against everyone else, which, makes a lot of sense.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (1-2)
• Boston Red Sox (2-1)
• Cincinnati Reds (1-2)
• Colorado Rockies (4-2)
• Miami Marlins (5-1)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (3-0)
• San Francisco Giants (4-2)
• Texas Rangers (1-2)
• Toronto Blue Jays (2-1)

They’ve gone 23-13 against teams that currently do not hold a playoff spot. The Marlins came to town this week and the Phils bludgeoned them by a combined score of 15-2 in the first two games until Miami beat up on a now-demoted rookie starting pitcher, Andrew Painter.

Here’s the good news. The schedule look mighty nice heading into next month’s All Star break.

• 3 vs. NY Mets (33-41)
• 4 @ Washington Nationals (39-36)
• 3 @ NY Mets
• 4 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (37-37)
• 3 @ Kansas City Royals (30-45)
• 3 @ Cincinnati Reds (35-38)
• 3 @ Detroit Tigers (30-44)

Over their next 23 games, they play four games against teams with a winning record, next week in DC against the Nats. Their opponents have a combined record of 204-241 and a winning percentage of .458. The Phillies have a better record than all of them.

It’s a recipe for the success they’ve experienced since Don Mattingly took over as skipper to continue into the All Star Break.

Even with the returns of Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, the Mariners continue to be beset by injuries. Julio Rodriguez was held out of Thursday’s game with a minor hamstring injury and Luke Raley missed the entire series against the Orioles thanks to the flu. Somehow, the only part of the team that hasn’t been affected by injury is the starting rotation. We’ll see the return of the piggybacking strategy this weekend to alleviate the issues the six-man rotation caused over the last few weeks.

The Red Sox entered this season looking like one of the stronger teams in the AL East. They had navigated an awkward transition away from their older core, graduated a bunch of top prospects in 2025, and brought in a bunch of talented players during the offseason. Things quickly went off the rails. Manager Alex Cora was fired at the end of April after the team had limped to a 10-17 start to the season. Injuries to Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony further depleted the talent on the roster and the lineup has been one of the most punchless in baseball. Things have gone so bad in Boston, the team is already considering selling at the trade deadline despite the gross mediocrity plaguing the entire American League.

It turns out, it’s really difficult to replace superstars like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. Those players were shipped out of Boston in the name of payroll flexibility, but the team has done an extremely poor job of replacing that talent on their roster. The result is an offense that has scored the fewest runs in the AL with a 90 wRC+. Sure, Roman Anthony was supposed to be a core piece in the lineup, and he has missed more than a month due to a sprained finger, but he had only produced a 91 wRC+ before getting injured. The lone bright spot has been the excellence of Willson Contreras. Acquired from the Cardinals to fill the gaping hole at first base, he’s been one of the best at the position in baseball this year, blasting 16 home runs and running a career high 157 wRC+. 

The real problem for the Red Sox is guys like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Caleb Durbin all taking a hefty step backwards this season. Combined with the lack of development from former top prospect Marcelo Mayer and you can see why the team has struggled to consistently score runs this year.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

After a stint in Philadelphia where he was constantly overshadowed by the bigger names in the Phillies’ rotation, Ranger Suarez signed a huge five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox this offseason. He wasn’t a big name prospect, doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he owns a 3.25 ERA and 15.2 fWAR since joining the starting rotation full time in 2021. Excellent command, a bit of deception, and a deep repertoire all combine to help him run excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios while also limiting the amount of hard contact he allows. His sinker is one of the best in baseball and his curveball provides plenty of whiffs when he really needs to get a strikeout.

Connelly Early made his big league debut last fall, showcasing strong strikeout stuff with good command. Ranked fourth overall on this year’s Red Sox prospect list, his first full season in the majors has been a little shaky this year. He moved through the minor leagues extremely quickly after being drafted in the fifth round in 2023, so it’s possible his struggles this year are simply normal speed bumps in his development trajectory. He’s got a deep six-pitch repertoire and likes to mix and match his pitch mix to avoid becoming too predictable. He’s got a pair of strong fastballs, an excellent changeup, and a trio of breaking balls to attack batters with.

Payton Tolle raced through the Red Sox farm system last year. After being drafted in 2024, he made his pro debut the following spring and was eventually pitching in the big leagues by the end of the season. His fastball is one of the best in all of baseball; he throws hard from the left side, the pitch has tremendous carry at the top of the zone, and his 6’ 6” frame provides a ton of extension down the mound. His secondary pitches are still a work in progress but his plus plus fastball has enough quality that he can get by without a breaking ball or offspeed pitch. If he ever develops a consistent secondary weapon or two, watch out.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics wound up losing their series against the Pirates earlier this week but started off a four-game set against the Angels with a win last night. The Rangers were swept by the Twins, slipping down the Wild Card standings into a tie with Minnesota; Texas hosts the Padres this weekend. The Astros just took two of three from the Tigers and will get an opportunity to affect the AL Central standings even further with a series against the Guardians.

The Yankees finally conquered one of their personal demons last weekend, winning a series at the Rogers Centre for the first time since September 2023. Principal to their success was the performance of the pitching staff, holding their hosts to just four runs across the final two games. Cam Schlittler was the catalyst for that stretch of shutdown pitching with his seven innings of one-run ball on Saturday to nullify another dominant start against the Yankees from his opponent, Kevin Gausman.

We join Schlittler with two outs in the bottom of the fourth. The score is tied, 1-1, following a Kazuma Okamoto solo shot in the third that Jasson Domínguez canceled out with a clout of his own to lead off the following half-inning — the only hit that Gausman would give up in his seven innings of work. With Domínguez having made it a new ballgame in the top-half and having seen how untouchable Gausman was on this given day, the pressure is on Schlittler to keep putting up zeroes.

However, he’s gotten himself into some trouble with runners on second and third with one out, Brandon Valenzuela drawing a one-out walk and advancing to third on a Yohendrick Piñango double. Schlittler then got Charles McAdoo to line out to pull within an out of escaping the jam. Schlittler could really use a strikeout, but stepping to the plate is a pesky hitter who has always been difficult to punch out in Andrés Giménez.

Schlittler’s typical M.O. against lefties is to attack early with the cutter, hoping to get to two strikes, where he can then target up and away with the four-seamer or up and in with cutters hunting the chase, whiff, and strikeout. True to form, Schlittler starts Giménez with a first pitch cutter up and in at 96 mph.

Giménez must be hunting something either low in the zone or out over the plate, because he never looks interested in offering at this cutter up and in that catches a lot of the strike zone. It’s still a devilish pitch at 96 and command to that location, and any contact would likely saw Giménez’s bat off at the handle.

Now that Schlittler has show Giménez an in-zone fastball with late movement down and in, he sequences the four-seamer trying to throw it out of the same tunnel as the previous pitch. If he can achieve that, it should look like a cutter that is going to break into the hitting are, only to then hold its vertical plane above the strike zone. The idea is to fool Giménez into chasing and whiffing under a pitch that looks the same as the previous one but does not break the way the hitter is expecting.

Of course, you actually have to execute to your spot for this strategy to work. Instead, Schlittler sails this four-seamer way above the zone. It’s a classic overthrow and a completely non-competitive pitch that achieves nothing in this encounter with respect to setting up future pitches.

Perhaps Schlittler didn’t like the way that four-seamer felt coming out of the hand, because he goes right back to the cutter with the count 1-1. Giménez was passive against the first one up and in so maybe Schlittler can extract a similar result with similar execution.

Schlittler commands this cutter to almost the same spot he hit with the first pitch of the AB except just a few inches higher. Interestingly, Giménez does swing this time at a pitch that is much harder to hit than the one he took for strike one. He has no chance of putting this pitch in play and only manages to foul it back with the handle of his bat.

With Giménez now showing a willingness to offer at the high fastball, and with the count to two strikes, all of the momentum is in Schlittler’s favor. The plan has become conveniently simplified: continue to pour in high heaters and let Giménez get himself out.

This is a perfectly located 1-2 four-seamer. It’s close enough to the zone to extract a chase but high enough to make solid contact almost impossible. Similarly, at 99 mph and in on Giménez’s hands rather than elevated but out over the plate, the hitter has zero time to pull his hands in and somewhat miraculously gets off an emergency hack to fight the pitch off foul and stay alive.

Two fastballs elevated above the zone and two chases — Schlittler simply needs to keep climbing the ladder just one rung higher than the previous pitch and eventually Giménez will be unable to raise his swing high enough to make contact.

Ask and you shall receive. Schlittler goes incrementally higher with this 96-mph cutter, and at last Giménez can’t adjust. Schlittler gets the swinging strikeout to strand the pair of baserunners in scoring position and hand it over to his offense with the score still knotted at one apiece.

Here’s the full sequence:

This sequence showcased several of Schlittler’s many talents. He has a unique ability to get chases and whiffs in bunches when he throws the four-seamer or cutter above the zone, which in addition to precise command suggests to me that his pitches just don’t move how hitters are expecting them to. We also noted that Schlittler recognized how Gausman was shutting down his teammates, necessitating that the likely All-Star be extra precise with his locations whereas he might have been able to attack the zone more freely had he been pitching with the lead.

Schlittler by his own admission was not at his sharpest in this game as evidenced by a season-high four walks. Still, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that Schlittler held Toronto to just one run across seven strong innings, a feat that very few starters in today’s game are capable of producing. I sometimes find myself falling into the trap of taking Schlittler’s ability for granted that he can go this deep in the game on a day when he doesn’t have his best stuff and/or command.

The Cincinnati Reds, ranked fifth in the NL Central with a 35-38 record, face the New York Yankees, who are first in the AL East with a 45-28 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -285 moneyline compared to the Cincinnati Reds' +225. Starting pitchers are Rhett Lowder for Cincinnati, with a 4.60 ERA, and Cam Schlittler for New York, with a 1.82 ERA.

How to watch Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees

• Date: Friday, June 19

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

• TV Channels: YES, Reds.TV

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Cincinnati Reds: 35-38 (fifth in NL Central)

• New York Yankees: 45-28 (first in AL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5

• Moneyline: New York Yankees -285 / Cincinnati Reds +225

• Over/Under: 8.5

Starting pitchers

Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder (3-3, ERA: 4.60, K: 37, WHIP: 1.43)

New York Yankees: Cam Schlittler (7-3, ERA: 1.82, K: 96, WHIP: 0.91)

Series: Game 1 of 3 (series tied)

Weather: 80°F at first pitch