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This has been one of those series. You know, the one where the Cubs make solid contact but it finds a glove. I mean, not a lot of solid contact in these first two games. But when they do, it finds a defender. Meanwhile, the Marlins feel like they’ve had a never ending run of seeing eye grounders. It feels whiny to say that. But I’m not whining about the occurrence. The Cubs have done it to other teams plenty. It’s definitely part of the game. Were I going to whine, it would be about the timing of it. Between that and the storm bearing down on Boston, these were the last things the Cubs needed right now. I suppose, of the two, the pesky Marlins are the more frustrating one. If the Cubs could win these games, those games might not matter, or at least would matter less. The most important clinch of all hasn’t happened yet.

It’s early for me to write about Scoreboard Watching, but I look at scores across baseball and I tip my cap to the also-rans of MLB in 2026. They understand their role as spoilers here in the final playoff push. I look around the league and I see the Mets beating the Rangers, the Royals beating the White Sox, and of course the Marlins beating our Cubs. No doubt I hate seeing the Marlins doing this, but if they were doing it to the Padres or the Phillies, I’d be delighted. So I get it.

It’s all just disappointing because the pitching has done its job in this series, save the 12th inning Tuesday. As painful as that was to watch, I’m not going to throw a bullpen under the bus that got the game to the 12th inning. That wasn’t teams exchanging runs as you sometimes see in modern extra inning games. That was the bullpen closing the door for several innings and giving the offense a plethora of opportunities to win the game.

Two games into this series, the offense has four runs in 21 innings. Even those four runs feel a little fluky. Certainly the Tuesday rally benefitted from a miscue by the Marlins defense. The other three runs in the series have come from a few of those seeing eye type of hits that have benefitted the Cubs. Both the wind blowing in and the absence of Alex Bregman have paired with an effective job by the Marlins staff to frustrate the Cubs for two straight nights.

It’s not hard to imagine the Marlins coaching staff talking to their team about these games being what a playoff atmosphere is. The Cubs are a team that is in a position that the Marlins are trying to get to. They’ve been playing these games for a little while now. Before this, it was the Padres. Before that it was the Diamondbacks. Before that it was the Dodgers. After this, it will be the Braves. That’s a brutal stretch to be sure. Credit where it is due, they are 6-5 with four to go in this stretch of 15 straight games against playoff teams. Young, hungry and aggressive.

As to the Cubs, I staked out my position a little while ago. Your mileage may vary. But I believe this team will answer the bell, be ready to go and not be intimidated by any team in the playoffs. That isn’t me saying they’ll win. Heck, I’m not saying they won’t get blown out. But they aren’t going to be a team moping around because they struggled some in September. That doesn’t mean they didn’t blow all kinds of good opportunities. It could result in them having to go on the road for games that should have been in Wrigley. We aren’t going to know that before at least Friday. If whomever is that first opponent isn’t ready to play, the Cubs are going to make them hate life. If that team is sharp, it may be tough for this Cub team.

I’m not about to jump off of the bandwagon. I see a bunch of people doing so. It’s okay, I’ll see you all back next week after the Cubs win their first game. Don’t forget to at least keep an eye out for Pete Crow-Armstrong to find his 40th stolen base of the season. He has a flair for the dramatic, don’t be surprised if he finds a homer or two and possibly the MLB home run championship. It’s been a great season. You made it this far, stay on the ride.

Three Positives:

• Michael Busch had a pair of singles and scored one of the two runs.
• Dansby Swanson had a single and a walk. He drove in both runs.
• The pitching was pretty good and one of them ought to get some love. I’ll give the kudos to Kevin Gausman. One out shy of a quality start. He allowed only two runs and struck out seven. He also made a neat play for that last out. And he threw the full 100 pitches that cap the day of most major leaguers these days. Hopefully, he just needs an ice back and a chiropractic visit after that last play and will be fine.

Game 158, September 23: Marlins 3, Cubs 2 (87-71)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.115). 1-3, BB, 2 RBI
• Hero: Jacob Webb (.095). 1.1 IP, 6 BF, H, BB, 2 K
• Sidekick: Michael Busch (.057). 2-4, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.215). 0-1, DP
• Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.173). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, R, K (L 9-2)
• Kid: Miguel Amaya (-.111). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s two-run single with two outs in the sixth inning tied the game. (.270)

Marlins Play of the Game: The two-run homer by Kyle Stowers with one out in the fifth for the first two runs of the game. (.241)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 157 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 31 of 63 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +26
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
• Shōta Imanaga +15
• Carson Kelly +13.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -14
• Nico Hoerner -16
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5
• Seiya Suzuki -20

Scoreboard Watching: The Phillies and Cubs both lost. That leaves the two of them tied. The Padres defeated the Dodgers and moved into the first Wild Card slot, the Cubs second by tiebreaker and then the Phillies. The Diamondbacks won and are serious about making all of these teams sweat a little. I still feel very confident that in some order it will be the Padres, Cubs and Phillies.

Up Next: The series finale. The Cubs have now lost three of five to the Marlins. In general, the Cubs were good against the best teams and mediocre against everyone else, the obvious exception being the Brewers. The Cubs can split the season series with a win in the finale. Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06) will get the finale. Boyd snapped a long, rough streak with a good start last time out. He allowed one run over five innings and beat the Reds in Cincinnati. He did not face the Marlins in Miami.

28-year-old righty Tyler Phillips will start for the Marlins. The 2015 16th round pick of the Rangers (468 overall) is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA. He beat the Cubs in Miami. He allowed three runs over five innings. He’s split his year between the rotation and bullpen, appearing in 36 games and making 19 starts. He has two saves. He’s been a part of the Marlin plan of having the back three-fifths of their rotation limited to five innings or less. It was June 28th the last time he threw more than six. There is only one other game he’s thrown more than five and that was back on August 13 against the Pirates. When he gets in trouble, it’s usually walks. He walks almost four per nine innings. That’s not an insane number by any means. But for a guy on a limited pitch count to begin with, that’s not optimal.

Gotta win this one at this point. Find a way.

Angel Martinez has had a good season for the Cleveland Guardians. Is what he is showing us likely to be repeatable?

Angel Martinez has a 110 wRC+ and a .306 xwOBA with a 22/3 K/BB%. Since coming back from a broken foot, Martinez has put up a 130 wRC+, but with identical K/BB% and xwOBA. Martinez has a 132 wRC+ against RHP and a 99 wRC+ against LHP, but a 125 wRC+ against LHP for his career. One would guess his splits against LHP will improve if he can continue to hit, period. But, there are questions if a player with Angel’s lack of walks and chase rate can sustain what he has done in 2026.

If you are like me, you may remember another fun Guardians’ outfielder who had a geeat season for them while chasing at an unsustainable rate. Oscar Gonzalez (in his age 24 season just as Angel is right now) had a 123 wRC+ with a .325 xwOBA, a 19.6/3.9 K/BB%, 47% chase rate, 21% line drive rate, 51% groundball rate and a 28% fly ball rate. He was a truly awful fielder putting up -6 DRS in two years and -12 OAA in the same time period. Gonzalez washed out of the MLB and has struggled to hit in the NPB so far, doomed by poor defende, an inability to stay disciplined at the plate and the failure to lift the ball with any consistency.

Angel Martinez is not a good defensive outfielder but he appears to be capable of average play in right field (1 DRS and 0 OAA) and not being Gonzalez level bad in left (-3 DRS and -2 OAA). I think we can be reasonably optimistic he can improve some given switching to the outfield was a late move for him, so he shouldn’t be unplayable… but he will also probably not be an asset out there.

The bigger issue is his underlying numbers, specifically his chase rate. Martinez has a 22% line drive rate and a 39% ground ball rate and a 39% fly ball rate. He pulls the ball almost 50% of the time, so he has the ability to make his best swings matter as seen in his 17 homers this season. But, the elephant in the room is Angel’s 42% chase rate. That’s about as bad as any starting player in MLB can manage, while still a little short of Gonzalez’s number. Both Gonzalez and Martinez make contact when they chase in the mid-60% range, but Martinez offers an 82% contact rate overall. He doesn’t miss any pitches in the zone, where Gonzalez would miss JUST enough to make his chase issues that much more glaring.

I want Angel Martinez to succeed. He is a truly special person and has saved this team multiple times. However, if pushed on this issue, I would have to guess that Martinez will probably not be a major league hitter longterm if he continues to chase at a 42% rate. If he can lower it to more of the 35% rate he flashed his first season, I am convinced that would be enough to make him a major league starter, especially if it resulted in his walk rate creeping closer to 6% and his opportunities to punish more pitches in the zone increasing. He has that dog in him with a 131 wRC+ in high leverage situations this season, and a general positive spirit that lights up the field. But, without showing he can lower that chase rate and increase the walk rate, I fear our Guardian Angel’s success may be as ephemeral as the dearly departed (to Japan) SpongeBob.

Angel fans… pin your hopes on his pulled fly-ball abilities, his knack of punishing meatballs when he sees them and his defensive mediocrity. Maybe he can find a little more of his minor league plate discipline (walk rate of 9.9% for his career on the farm) having established himself in the big leagues. If so, watch out, because an Angel Martinez who will take a walk even 7% of the time is an MLB All-Star. And, while there is no guarantee that can happen… it’s an exciting possibility that is not entirely out of the realms of reality.

Angel Martinez can enter 2027 with a starting outfield position in front of him, from my view. However, it would be wise to have plenty of depth just in case the chase issues that plagued another former Guardians’ outfield revelation come back to decimate Angel’s numbers as well. Here’s hoping Angel can rise above!

Entering 2027, there are going to be a few position battles to watch. There should be plenty of competition on the pitching staff in particular. However, one spot that intrigues me is the first base/DH position. It looks like there will be at least three players battling it out for that first base spot and I wanted to break things down.

For most of the season, there has been a lot of rotation at the first base and DH spots. Until he was traded, Luis Garcia Jr. got the at bats against righties. His platoon partner varied. At one point it was Curtis Mead, before the Aussie grabbed the third base role. Then it was Andres Chaparro, who had a great second half. With Garcia gone, there is now a lot of uncertainty.

Following the Garcia trade, the plan was for Abimelec Ortiz to slide into that role of being the first baseman against righties. However, that has not gone according to plan. Ortiz is hitting just .194 with a .592 OPS in 42 games. Despite having some promising batted ball data, Ortiz has not done enough to take the spot.

Ortiz is currently running a .220 BABIP in MLB despite 80th percentile pull-air, good launch angles, and great exit velocities (so the numbers are simply not representative of his performance at the plate). I'm disappointed to see the swing decisions being quite a major issue,… pic.twitter.com/QcmY65L6zm

— Josh L. (@jowole1216) September 23, 2026

I am not giving up on Ortiz, but you also cannot hand him a big role unless he shows a lot next spring. He has really gotten exposed after a hot start. In his last 28 games, Ortiz is hitting just .143 with a .390 OPS. The 24 year old has not been able to make the adjustments after pitchers figured out how to attack him.

However, the Nats have shown that they like to platoon a lot and Ortiz is the only left handed bat in the mix. This could give him a longer leash and put him in the mix for playing time. It also means the Nats could look to go outside the organization for a left handed first base option. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of left handed corner infield profiles set to hit free agency.

That either means they will give Ortiz more runway, or they will give more responsibility to their right handed bats. I think that second option is the way to go. Andres Chaparro has finally broken out of that Quad-A label this second half and has established himself as a big league slugger.

Since the break, Chaparro is hitting .292 with 10 homers and a .962 OPS. The 27 year old has consistently provided clutch hits and a lot of power. He has arguably been the team’s best hitter in the second half. Given his production, I would feel confident in giving Chappy a larger role, much like what the team did with Curtis Mead.

Andrés Chaparro since the All Star Break (48 games):

10 HR
30 RBI
.295 AVG
.385 OBP
.990 OPS (3rd in MLB)#Natitudepic.twitter.com/tJZPXzvN2o

— PaceBall (@paceball__) September 21, 2026

Chaparro has also shown an ability to hit right handed pitching when given the opportunity. In 71 AB’s against righties, Chaparro is hitting .296 with an .888 OPS. His numbers against righties are actually better than they are against lefties. That is impressive for a guy who is mostly known as a lefty crusher.

Obviously, Chaparro has locked down a roster spot for next season. However, I think he has made a strong case for every day playing time. Platooning is part of this front office’s philosophy, but I think the gap between Ortiz and Chaparro is wide enough to ignore that. Unless Ortiz takes a big offseason leap, Chaparro needs to be playing more next season.

There is also a third name that is making his case. For most of the season, Yohandy Morales was dominating in AAA. His surface level numbers in Rochester were better than Ortiz’s. However, some underlying concerns with Morales made the front office hesitant to call him up. Morales chases a lot, whiffs more than you would like and hits the ball on the ground quite a bit.

That is usually a very bad combination. However, Morales made it work in the minors thanks to how hard he hits the ball. The Nats finally gave Morales a shot in September, and he looks a lot like he did in AAA. Morales has yet to draw a walk and he strikes out a lot. He has still been productive thanks to his power though.

In 15 games, Morales is hitting .279 with 4 homers and a .930 OPS. That raw power is making up for some of the holes in his profile. So far, Morales has a 92.5 MPH average EV, a 64.5% hard hit rate and a 16.1% barrel rate. 

All of those numbers are elite and his power has been super impressive. The home run he hit yesterday was an example of his truly elite raw power. It is rare to see a righty hit one out the other way in a big ballpark like Comerica but that is exactly what Morales did.

Yohandy Morales did this at the MiLB level all season. He has some unnaturally good power into the opposite field gap

His 4th HR comes in his 42nd PA…he has yet to take a walk in his young career pic.twitter.com/nwgAr69qqD

— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) September 23, 2026

He has put his name in the mix for a roster spot in 2027. The difficult part is finding a way to fit both Morales and Chaparro. Ideally you would want a lefty to be part of a platoon. However, these two right handed bats have looked so much better than the left handed Ortiz.

This creates a bit of a dilemma for Paul Toboni this offseason. It was mentioned on the broadcast that the Nats are working on Morales’ third base defense. However, Brady House also needs playing time and has looked good since being recalled from AAA. 

Honestly, this is a position to watch in the offseason. I could see a world where one of Chaparro, Morales or even House get traded this offseason. There is a lot of overlap with their offensive skillsets. Maybe they give Ortiz another shot or they try to find a left handed corner bat. 

I don’t necessarily think you have to have a left handed bat in the mix. However, from everything we know about this front office, I am not sure they agree with that. The impressive showings by Chaparro and Morales, combined with Ortiz struggling has put the Nats in an interesting position this offseason. Paul Toboni will have to figure out what he wants to do with these corner bats.

Entering the 2026 season, the introduction of the automated balls and strikes challenge system was a major topic. Throughout the early part of the season, we were heavily focused on who was winning or losing challenges, and what the best strategies for hitters and for pitcher and catchers were to get the most calls in their favor without squandering challenges in low leverage spots. As the season went on, the whole process became more natural and integrated into the approach on both sides of the ball. In low leverage situations, you absolutely better be correct. In higher leverage situations, it’s more reasonable to take a shot at a pitch the hitter or catcher feels is really a borderline call. And so, the game of baseball changes and keeps moving.

Having watched the evolution of the technology unfold in Low-A and Triple-A, there was less of an adjustment period for fans who do follow the minor leagues. Indeed, the real annoyance for prospect writers now is the dark mode at High-A and Double-A, where there is no public Statcast data, and players who broke into full season ball using the system are then left up to the widely varying skills of minor league umpires through two levels, before getting back to ABS ball in Triple-A. Evaluating hitters in particular through those changing rule sets is a bit trickier.

Overall, the league did a really good job developing and implementing the ABS system. It’s quick enough not to impede the flow of the game much, and the two challenge allotment keeps it from being used excessively. We could argue about whether there should be one challenge allowed or three, or whether teams should automatically get an additional challenge in the eighth and ninth innings to help insure that in the highest leverage situations and most pressure packed moments, that the game isn’t decided by the umpires, but overall I’d call it a pretty solid success.

As a somewhat older fan now, do I love every aspect of it? Not really. Catchers used to be able to expand the zone with their target, and if the pitcher hit the glove without much movement required, you could expand the edges of the strike zone, which rewarded pitchers with good command. On the other side of it, if that catcher set up inside and you missed your target by two feet, it was never a strike even if it techically caught the by the book strike zone. Those differences have really taken some getting used to over the past few years as the system was tested in the minors.

And of course, this impacts how the game is played and how it will be taught and played moving forward. The strict zone now enforced really puts even more emphasis on raw stuff, because you have to be able to draw whiffs and weak contact in the zone. The emphasis on velocity, spin, and nasty offspeed stuff over precision command is only going to continue to grow, and the soft tossing command artists of the past have very little space in the game at this point. Such is the way of things as ambiguity becomes a problem to be solved rather than just a fact of life.

The benefits are there as well though. Watching a game end on a really bad ball or strike call was one of the more infuriating things in sports. Perhaps that sort of thing does build character, but it always felt brutal to be on the wrong end of one of those calls. Taking more of the umpire’s discretion out of the game was necessary, and it doesn’t help that the explosion of legal sports gambling has only added suspicion about games or individual pitches or plays in the major sports being rigged somehow. This short-circuited a lot of those concerns in baseball, at least in terms of the umpires.

What do you think? After a year of the ABS, do you like it or not? What would you change if you were running the Show?

It’s been an exciting September for Austin Wells off the field — and the Yankees hope there will be a thrilling October on it to match.

The Yankees catcher got engaged to girlfriend Caroline Nielson earlier this month, according to photos she shared of the proposal on Instagram.

Nielson posted Wednesday photos of a touching beach scene with Wells down on one knee before the couple embraces.

The “forever and ever” caption suggests that the proposal took place Sept. 3 — an off day for the Yankees between series in California against the Angels and Padres.

They also included a photo of their daughter, Lucy, as part of the joyous moment.

Several significant others of Yankees teammates were quick to toast the couple in the comments section.

“My heart!!!!! Let’s get these two married!!! ” wrote Ava O’Connor, who is dating outfielder Spencer Jones.

“The best off day in the history of off days,” wrote Carlos Rodon’s wife, Ashley.

“SCREAMING CRYING,” wrote Ben Rice’s girlfriend, Sara Falkson.

It is unclear when the couple first started dating. They announced that Nielson was expecting a child last November in one of the first public signs of a relationship.

Before the big day, Wells has an important postseason in front of him.

The 27-year-old catcher has somewhat rebounded from a miserable start to the season, pushing his average up to .185 after dipping down to .150 in July.

Wells, who is respected by the Yankees for his skills behind the plate, will likely be a mainstay in the lineup during the postseason.

That will begin next week when the Yankees in all likelihood will take on the Red Sox in a best-of-three wild card series in The Bronx.

Wells did have perhaps his biggest moment in pinstripes when the rivals met last season in the same round, driving home the game-winning run with an eighth-inning single in Game 2.

The Yankees evened the series that night and went on to win Game 3 the following evening.

Now, Wells and the Yankees will look for an even deeper postseason run with Nielson no doubt cheering him on from the stands.

A’s catcher Brian Serven left Wednesday’s game after fouling a pitch straight into his face and underwent a CT scan, according to manager Mark Kotsay.

It’s possible he could miss the team’s final four games.

“We’re not sure,” Kotsay said about Serven’s availability, per USA Today. “Right now, he’s getting a CT scan and they’re taking a look at the swelling area on the face. Scary moment for sure.

“Fortunately, looking at the video replay, the ball hit the bat, it also bounced off the earpiece. So we’re hoping that with the combination of that, in that direct impact area underneath the eye … There was a good amount of swelling.”

Brian Serven had to leave the game mid at-bat after a foul ball struck him in the face pic.twitter.com/cLSruT4QX3

— Athletics on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) September 24, 2026

In the sixth inning of the A’s 7-3 home win over the Angels, Serven squared up to bunt a 94-mph changeup from righty Jose Fermin.

The ball ran in on Serven and went straight off the bat and into his face, dropping him to the ground immediately while he touched the left side of his face.

Kotsay and a trainer immediately attended to him.

“Oh, no,” one A’s broadcaster said after watching the scary scene. “Goodness.”

Serven remained on the ground for a lengthy period before returning to his feet, and Jonah Heim replaced him mid at-bat and flied out to center for the first out of the inning with the A’s leading 5-3.

Kotsay reportedly said the team will know more Thursday morning about his status, with the team beginning a season-ending four-game home set against the Astros later that night.

Serven, 31, is in his fourth season in the majors and first with the A’s.

He’s slashed .179/.220/.385 across 28 games.

The former 2016 first-round pick of the Rockies has appeared in 129 career games and has tallied 11 homers and 34 RBIs while posting a .554 OPS.

He previously spent time with the Rockies from 2022-23 and the Blue Jays in 2024.

October isn't about six months of numbers. It's about who is hot right now, for three days or seven, and that can be anyone from a slumping star, a middle reliever nobody outside the clubhouse has heard of and a player coming back from an injury – (Aaron Judge, anybody?).

Here's the X-factors for each playoff contender, the ones who could swing a series.

Tampa Bay Rays

Freddy Peralta was a disaster for six weeks after Tampa Bay acquired him from the New York Mets on Aug. 3, a 7.17 ERA over his first four starts with the Rays. Over his last five starts, he's allowed just three earned runs in 28 ⅔ innings (0.94 ERA). He's not entirely fixed, though. His outing on Sept. 13 was a near no-hitter against the Houston Astros, but it still took 86 pitches to get through five innings because he walked three. If the newer version of Peralta shows up in October, the Rays have three dependable arms when including Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez. If the wild version shows up, the Rays might be walked out of the playoffs. If the version from August shows up, they are in trouble.

New York Yankees

The Yankees postseason hangs on the health of Aaron Judge. Just back after missing three months with a broken rib, Judge seemed to be getting back into form when he left the series finale against the Twins on Sept. 16 with a right calf strain. Manager Aaron Boone said the team is planning for Judge "not being a part" of the Yankees' wild-card series, but Judge insists he shouldn't be ruled out. New York has to hope it's just part of the ramp-up process, because without Judge in the lineup, the Yankees' October could be very short.

NIGHTENGALE: Yankees watch Rays party but NY is still AL's team to beat without Judge

Boston Red Sox

Garrett Crochet hasn't pitched in a competitive game since April 25. The Red Sox ace has missed almost the entire season, first with the shoulder inflammation, then a lat strain. He's been ramping up over the past two weeks, throwing his sweeper off a mound for the first time on Sept. 11, and Boston is skipping a minor league rehab assignment entirely, aiming instead to get him into live batting practice in the season's final week. The plan, if he's ready, isn't to start him. It's to use him in short relief, like he did as a rookie with the White Sox. The Red Sox rallied to get into contention without him. If he can be effective with essentially no tune-up, that's a heck of a playoff weapon.

Chicago White Sox

Colson Montgomery is a 24-year-old having a 30-homer season, and striking out at a rate that's putting him in the company of the biggest whiff totals in White Sox history. He is also going through a brutal cold stretch at the wrong time: 4 for his last 49 with 29 strikeouts during that span. Getting hit by a pitch on Sept. 16 didn't help, though X-rays came back clean. After leading the AL Central from July 4 until Sept. 16, the White Sox are still on the Cleveland Guardians' tails. In a race that tight, Montgomery is either a middle-of-the order threat, or an easy out and nobody will know which until it happens.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland traded for Jo Adell on Aug. 3, needing a jolt of power while Jose Ramirez was still finding his timing back from hamate surgery. The Guardians got a hitter who's two different players depending on who's on the mound. Against left-handers this year, he has hit .321 with a .593 slugging percentage. Facing righties, he's hit .209 and been close to unplayable. Since the trade he's hit three home runs of at least 450 feet. How much of a factor he is for the Guardians depends on how many left-handers that they face and if manager Stephen Vogt is willing to sit him against the rest.

Houston Astros

Hunter Brown was a Cy Young contender for Houston in 2025 with a 2.43 ERA that put him in the conversation for the American League's best pitcher. A shoulder strain cost him from April to mid-June, and the version that came back still throws just as hard, but he's lost the command that made him elite. His walk rate has nearly doubled since returning, and his ERA over that stretch has run closer to 4.75 than the number that made him a star a year ago. Houston doesn't have much rotation depth to lean on if he's off. Cristian Javier has an ERA over 5, and the Astros have already turned to a bullpen game just to get through a rotation turn. Tied with Texas heading into the final week of the season, the Astros need Brown to find himself or it will be a short October.

Texas Rangers

If the Rangers get in, they'll go as far as Jacob deGrom lets them, and lately that has meant something different every turn through the rotation. DeGrom left an August start against the Angels after two innings with triceps fatigue. Three weeks later, he struck out 12 over six shutout innings against Seattle – then left that game early, too, this time with groin tightness. He came back on schedule and pitched through it against Boston with eight strikeouts over five innings. His ERA sits at 3.86 for the season. At 38, deGrom's stuff still looks like peak deGrom, but whether his body holds up long enough to carry the Rangers in October is the question.

Atlanta Braves

Ronald Acuna Jr. has played 100 games in a season only five times in his career, and this (barely) is one of those years. A hamstring strain cost him from June 9 to late July, and for a former MVP, his season line is pretty modest. He's hitting .259 with 20 home runs for the season, buoyed by an 18-game stretch where he hit .366 with 10 extra-base hits. Then he fouled a ball off his leg on Sept. 22, leaving the game with a left shin contusion. If Acuna can get back and pick up where he left off, that's the X-factor the Braves need.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies rotation looked settled heading into September. Then Jesus Luzardo went on the injured list with left shoulder soreness, and Cristopher Sanchez, who has a 2.93 ERA for season, has put up a 4.48 ERA since July 1. That leaves Zack Wheeler as the only starter the Phillies don't have to worry about – even if he is coming off thoracic outlet surgery last year. Aaron Nola has a 3.03 ERA since the All-Star break, a real turnaround from a rocky start, and Andrew Painter has been nearly as good since midseason. How many of those arms steps up in October is going to be the difference between the Phillies celebrating or going home early.

Milwaukee Brewers

Trevor Megill opened the season so poorly that he briefly lost the closer's job. He posted a 14.40 ERA in April that included a blown save against Toronto. He turned it around with an 0.86 ERA over a 20-outing stretch that carried into July, but lately it looks like the heavy workload could be catching up (5.40 ERA in September). Milwaukee has the best record in baseball and a first-round bye, which will bring some much-needed rest for its closer. Which version of Megill shows up in October will determine how far the Brewers go.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' ninth inning is still up for grabs. Jacob Webb had it and put up a 24-appearance scoreless streak until he blew consecutive saves and has allowed 11 earned runs in his past nine innings. Daniel Palencia wants it back. He has a 100 mph fastball and 22 saves from a year ago, but he looked rusty coming off elbow inflammation in August, before stringing together enough clean outings that manager Craig Counsell called it the best stretch yet. Whoever is closing in October will hold the Cubs' fate in his hands.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani hadn't played in nearly two weeks, before returning Sept. 23. His two-way comeback ended for good in late August with biceps soreness that has since spread into his knee and neck. He says he feels good, but the Dodgers have already said he probably won't be at full strength in October. His season line, a .900 OPS with 30 home runs, still reads like an MVP, but since Aug. 8 he was hitting .198. Whether he can play at his elite level might be the single biggest X-factor heading into October.

San Diego Padres

The Padres rotation lost four projected starters to injury this year: Joe Musgrove, Lucas Giolito, Yu Darvish and Bryan Hoeing all done for the season. Michael King has emerged as the ace, and Walker Buehler has a 3.15 ERA over his past nine starts. Behind them it's a question mark. Nick Pivetta just came back from injury, and deadline pickups Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have settled in and a shaky start. Which of these arms the Padres can trust heading into October will make the difference.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB playoff X-factors: One player who could swing October for every contender

For most of the Mets, taking on the Rangers in Texas this week just marks the second to last series of the season.

For two of them, though, it serves as a homecoming. 

It’s an actual homecoming for Brett Baty, who was raised just hours away from Globe Life Field.

For Marcus Semien, the circumstances are a bit different. 

Semien, of course, spent the last four years manning second base for the Rangers before being shipped to the Mets this offseason in the Brandon Nimmo deal.

While it’s two different situations, both had a very similar feeling after hitting big homers late to help the Mets pull ahead of the Rangers and play spoiler once again on Wednesday night. 

“It was cool to go out there and greet the people who came to support me,” said Baty, who crushed a dagger pinch-hit grand slam. “You only get to play in Texas so many times in a year playing in New York, so it was really cool."

“Go-ahead homer in the eighth is obviously a good feeling,” Semien added. “Coming back here after four good years -- I really enjoyed playing here, it’s a place I love to play, so it felt really good doing that in that last at-bat.”

The 36-year-old Semien is now up to 15 homers and a .625 OPS in what he perfectly summed up as a “roller coaster” first season rocking the orange and blue. 

He knows it’s much too late to salvage it, but is simply looking to finish the year strong. 

That’s exactly what the red-hot Baty has been able to do over the past 50-plus games. 

After an up-and-down start of his own, the lefty-hitting slugger has settled into a groove at the plate, hitting .282 with 21 extra base-hits and a .850 OPS since the end of June.

“He’s a weapon for us,” Semien said. 

“This is who he is,” manager Andy Green added. “Our goal will be to get to that earlier in the season, but he’s having confident at-bats, has a ton of power, and is using the whole field -- he’s just had good at-bat after good at-bat.”