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The Phillies lost Thursday, so now the Cubs trail them by one game for the top wild card spot. Both teams have 15 games remaining. As you know, the Cubs have the tiebreaker.

Oh, yes, the Pirates. They just completed a sweep of the White Sox on the South Side, holding them to just five runs in the three games. Since Aug. 24 the Pirates are 11-4, the best record in MLB. The Cubs are 6-10 since then.

For more on the Pirates, here’s Austin Bechtold, a writer at our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Don’t look now, but the Pirates are getting hot at the right time.

It’s been an uphill battle for the Bucs to erase a sizable deficit in the National League Wild Card race, but the team is looking to make this a September to remember. 

The Pirates have won four games in a row and their last five series after sweeping the White Sox on the south side. They are over .500 for the first time since July 29.

Pittsburgh has won eight of its last 10 games and only the Dodgers (seven in a row) are hotter than the Bucs.

So what’s standing in their way? Shōta Imanaga, who pitches like 2025 second half Jake Arrieta against the Pirates… but better.  

In 38 career innings facing Pittsburgh, Imanaga has allowed only one run for a staggering 0.24 ERA. He is the Pirates version of kryptonite despite having a season ERA of 3.92.

The Pirates placed All-Star Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-day injured list on Thursday with right arm discomfort and so he won’t start against the Cubs on Friday.

Wilber Dotel will begin the game, but this will likely become a bullpen game. Khristian Curtis and recently recalled Antwone Kelly are also available to pitch in bulk roles. 

Refining Cy Young honoree Paul Skenes starts on Saturday against former Pirate Clay Holmes, who was acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline. Holmes owns a 3.51 ERA through his first six starts with the Cubs.

Bubba Chandler gets the ball opposite Matthew Boyd, on Sunday in the series finale.

The Pirates are 4.5 games back of the San Diego Padres for the final wild card with only 15 games left. It still feels like a nearly impossible feat for the Pirates to accomplish and dug themselves too deep of a hole after being six games under .500 on both August 13 and 23.

Oneil Cruz drove in both runs on Thursday, including a solo home run hit 117.4 miles per hour as the hardest-hit home run of the season.

Oneil Cruz! 117.4 mph

That’s the hardest-hit home run in MLB this season https://t.co/iR4E50V3Pu

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 11, 2026

Since returning to the team on August 18 after missing two months with a hand injury, Cruz is batting .315 with a .404 slugging percentage, four homers, and 18 runs batted in. 

Konnor Griffin returned last weekend and first baseman/right fielder Ryan O’Hearn might be back this weekend.

The arrow is pointing up for the Pirates, but the rival Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are waiting for them. It may be too little too late for the Pirates as their race to the postseason continues to take full shape.

Fun facts

From June 8, 2018, through June 15, 2023, the Cubs were 31-10 at home against the Pirates, including six sweeps, one of four games. Since then, they are just 9-11 and never have won the first two games.

The Cubs dropped two of three in April, losing by 2-0 and 4-3 before winning, 7-6. Since the rivalry began, in 1887, the Cubs are 691-607 at home vs. the Pirates.

They have played more regular-season games against the Pirates, 2,631, than against any opponent. The second most are 2,539 vs. the Cardinals, then 2,439 vs. the Reds.

The Cubs have a .505 winning percentage vs. the Reds and .511 vs. the Cards. But they are .494 vs. the Pirates: 1,291 wins, 1,322 losses and 18 ties. Their wins are the most vs. another team, by four over the Cards. Their losses are the most, too, by 89 over the Cards.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (9-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 4.68 FIP) vs. Wilber Dotel, RHP (1-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 3.10 FIP)

Saturday: Clay Holmes, RHP (2-3, 3.51 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 3.85 FIP in six starts with Cubs; 6-7, 2.83 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 3.46 FIP in 15 starts overall) vs. Paul Skenes, RHP (10-11, 3.83 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 3.09 FIP)

Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-4, 4.03 ERA, 1.216 WHIP, 4.41 FIP) vs. Bubba Chandler, RHP (7-9, 4.25 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 4.10 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Pirates market territories)

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

If the Cubs don’t win at least two of three here, their postseason chances are in trouble. And especially with Braxton Ashcraft out and the Pirates using an opener Friday, and with the Cubs’ past success against Skenes, I think they can do that.

Up next

The Cubs host the Atlanta Braves in a three-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.

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The winners kept coming last night, and it's moving day with the MLB player props. I've dug myself out of a massive hole, and now I'm enjoying the late-season heater with the home run props.

Riley Greene at his price is that bat I want vs. the Rockies, who are finding themselves on the hit list every day, and Shota Imanaga is a perfect pitcher to fade with his home run numbers. 

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, September 11.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Riley Greene	20%
Rafael Flores Jr.	16.7%

Home run prediction: Riley Greene (20%)

The Colorado Rockies pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Mason Adams getting the ball.

This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers.

It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%.

He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25 as well.

Fade the Rockies until Game 162.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rockies.TV

Home run prediction: Rafael Flores Jr. (17%)

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard.

That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty.

I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%.

He leads the Pittsburgh Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order.

It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh

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Now, will the Guardians walk through it? That’s the question.

The Guardians were off yesterday, but the Pittsburgh Pirates beat the White Sox again, leaving Cleveland trailing Chicago by only 1.5 games. Somehow. The Rangers also lost, and the Guardians still 1 game ahead for the third wildcard (the Blue Jays are in that next slot, Rangers are two back). The path to the playoffs is still there. I don’t see how this team has given anyone any confidence they will make this happen, but they certainly have the ability to change all that starting tonight in Minnesota.

CTC user Jurko67 caught Columbus Clippers’ play-by-play guy noting that Ralphy Velazquez has missed three games with “lower body soreness.” Hopefully nothing serious but explains his absence from the lineup. Kyle Manzardo also missed yesterday’s game. Still think the team needs to add a left-handed hitter with pop to pair with Adell, whether Ralphy, Cooper Ingle or even Manzardo, and demote Petey Halpin or Daniel Schneemann. Someone who can feasibly play in the outfield would be preferable.

Zack Meisel of the Athletic has a look at the Guardians’ playoff scenarios today in the Athletic.

Entering the final weeks of the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, four of the game's six divisions are still up for grabs, as well as the final wild card spot in each league – setting up a roller-coaster race to Game 162.

The New York Yankees still have runway to catch the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, the Cleveland Guardians are within two games of the Chicago White Sox in the Central and the Texas Rangers aren't dead yet in the West behind the Houston Astros.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been trying to chase down the Braves in the NL East all season and face the leaders for a three-game set in Atlanta beginning on Friday that could unofficially decide the division.

Here's a look at the latest standings:

In 2024, the Royals were in the ALDS. Second place in the AL Central. In 2025 they fell to third, missed the playoffs. They were likely hoping to bounce back. Better health and maybe they’re right back in the mix? Nope. In 2026 they’re coming to Boston in last place in the AL Central with as many losses (82) as they had wins in 2025. And there are a couple weeks left to go.

Seth Lugo was a big part of that 2024 breakout team. He’d demonstrated he could be a starter the year before with San Diego and he fully made the transition leading the league in starts. No bad after much of his career spent in the bullpen. Well, the bills have come due. Lugo is closing in on his career high ERA. He faced Boston as part of a sweep by the Sox but tossed a quality start: 6.0 innings, 2 runs, 5Ks and 2 walks. Since July he’s made 17 starts and put up a 6.24 ERA / 4.98 FIP. He’s still signed for another year and the Royals will likely try to help him provide veteran leadership to the rotation again. Just a couple weeks older than Lugo, Sonny Gray is in the Cy Young conversation and having a fantastic year. After a little extra rest Gray came out firing for 7.0 shutout innings.

Randy Dobnak had thrown just 15 MLB innings since the 2021 season came to an end before this year. Now 10 starts into a bit of a resurgence, he’s had his ups and down. He doesn’t strike out many guys (just 43 in 63.2 innings) walks just under half as many (18) as he Ks and gives up almost a hit per inning (61). But he’s largely keeping the Royals in games, aside from a start on 9/1 where the Marlins touched him for 6 earned runs. Ranger Suarez finally had the start we’ve all been waiting for since his return from the IL. Seven innings, no runs, only a single walk? If he can have a couple more of those and roll into Playoff Ranger, a nearly unstoppable October force? The Sox will take it.

Noah Cameron is in his second full big league season and the lefty has been solid. He’s struck out 7 in back-to-back starts and had 8 Ks against the Angels in a complete game shutout in the middle of August. But he probably won’t be the best southpaw starter on the mound Sunday. He’s matched by Payton Tolle. Mass Pike is coming off a casual 12 strikeout game against the Orioles. He was at 91 pitches over 6.0 innings and if this were a different part of the season you wonder if Chad Tracy would have left him go another inning because he was carving up the birds.

Bobby Witt Jr. has hit 18 home runs and stolen 39 bases. He’s spent some time on the IL buy has quietly had one of the best seasons in baseball.

Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino has 11 homers on the year.

Willson Contreras is expected to make a rehab start on Friday and, you never know, could be in Fenway for Saturday or Sunday.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, September 11: Seth Lugo (5.04 ERA / 4.17 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.69 ERA / 3.50 FIP)

Saturday, September 12: Randy Dobnak (2.54 ERA / 4.10 FIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (3.44 ERA / 3.11 FIP)

Sunday, September 13: Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA / 3.62 FIP) vs. Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA / 4.10 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, September 11: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, September 12: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, September 13: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

It seems like we were at this point a few months ago. Optimism was high, as all eyes were on San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta’s first rehab pitching appearance in Lake Elsinore.

If all went well, he was the obvious choice to join the starting rotation. However, those dreams were shattered after Pivetta walked off the mound before the inning was over. He was favoring his right throwing arm, which is never an ideal look in a rehab appearance.

The Friar Faithful thought it would be impossible to see Pivetta on a major league mound again in 2026. Despite all the setbacks, he continued with his rehab throwing program.

Now, Pivetta has earned another opportunity to make a difference this season. 

Veteran starting pitching is a hot commodity in September 

Organizations value veteran starting pitchers because they rarely get rattled in postseason games. Inexperienced starters have excellent raw skills, but they do succumb to the pressures of October baseball. Pitching in high-level situations can be overwhelming, as veterans rarely overthink the moment.

Young pitchers often struggle the second time through the lineup. Veteran starters quickly recognize which pitches get outs and which ones are hit with authority. The playoffs are all about making adjustments.

The matter of Vasquez

The loser in this move is Randy Vasquez, who was sent to the bullpen. While the front office believes in Vasquez’s potential, his production does not match Pivetta’s yet. 

Coming into spring training, Vasquez was considered a fifth-starter candidate. Quickly, he evolved into a hard-throwing mainstay of the staff with a drop-dead sinker. 

The right-hander prefers to start, but he will sacrifice his preference and slide into a bullpen role for the stretch run. The Padres expect him to excel because Vasquez is not afraid to challenge hitters. 

No question, he has upside and probably will be the No. 3 starter in the 2027 Friars starting rotation. 

Amid speculation about Pivetta’s return, the Padres’ decision to choose a pitcher with 214 big-league starts over a rising talent with just 73 career starts is tough to argue against. 

Padres searching for starters at deadline

At the trade deadline, the Friars were desperate for starting pitching. For the first time this season, they looked outside the organization for solutions. Before the bell rang, the Padres acquired Robbie Ray from the San Francisco Giants and Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers. 

Each move sounds great in theory, but adding Pivetta to the starting rotation gives the Padres a veteran-laden staff. It was never clear if the Friars fully considered him a pitching option after his latest rehab setback. But Pivetta is the perfect fit to start behind Ray and Mize because of his proven track record.

Yes, he is a slight upgrade over Vasquez because of his major league experience. He posted a 3.43 ERA in his first five starts before suffering a flexor strain in his right elbow. 

Pivetta’s talent is evident, but injuries have repeatedly disrupted his momentum. He still has time this season to showcase his pitching talents.  

Suddenly, the Friars are an enticing postseason option.

Padres News:

• Lake Elsinore began postseason play as seasons wind down for Padres’ minor league affiliates. Coleman Borthwick was impressive in his debut.

• The Padres know the season could come down to the final series with the Arizona Diamondbacks and that is how they are preparing for the stretch run of the season.

• Annie Heilbronn of the San Diego Union-Tribunetalked with new Padres pitcher Casey Mize to give fans more information about the new rotation piece.

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has reached 20 home runs on the season despite his long homer less drought to start the year. Dennis Lin of The Athleticlooks at what he did to rediscover his power.

Baseball News:

• Anthony Volpe returned to the lineup and helped power the New York Yankees to a win over the Colorado Rockies.

• The Houston Astros topped the Philadelphia Phillies, 2-1.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Tampa Bay Rays behind a solid start from Martin Perez.

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The Cincinnati Reds (38%) have hammered the baseball lately, barreling up right-handed pitchers at a higher rate than any other team the past three weeks.

I expect their offense to get to Dustin May, which is why I'm backing the road team to keep it close with my Reds vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for tonight's game in Milwaukee.

Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (56%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Cincinnati Reds are in sneaky good form at the dish, and I'm backing them on the RL to 59%.

They rank eighth in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching the last three weeks, and have barreled up the opposing pitcher at a much higher rate (11.4%) than any other team. Nobody else is within two percent.

I expect them to cause problems for Dustin May, whose xERA sits at 5.85 over the past month. He has also given up barrels at nearly a 10% clip during that span.

That should feed into Cincinnati’s power, allowing them to hang tough in this inner-division clash.

COVERS INTEL:Dustin May's seventh percentile ranking in hard hit rate will only feed into Cincinnati's power surge vs. right-handed pitching.

Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)

This total is a run too low, making the Over a buy to 57%.

Andrew Abbott has not pitched nearly as well on the road this season, sporting a 5.96 xERA while allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings.

The Milwaukee Brewers feature a prolific offense and are lights out at home, making this a difficult spot to envision a quality start from Abbott – especially having just faced the Brew Crew. They’ll be used to his stuff.

May owns an ERA and xERA above 6.0 since the trade to Milwaukee, and now has to deal with a Reds offense hammering the baseball.

Reds vs Brewers home run prediction: Tyler Stephenson (15%)

Tyler Stephenson has provided the Reds with real pop of late, and profiles very well against May’s mix.

Isolating May’s three most-used pitches, which account for well over 80% of what he throws to righties, Stephenson has posted a 14.8% barrel rate and generated hard contact at a 51.9% clip over the last 25 games. He has done real damage.

Stephenson hasn’t seen much of May over the years but is 2-for-4 with an extra-base hit in a limited sample.

Reds vs Brewers weather

This game will be played indoors.

Reds vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Reds 38% | Brewers 63%
• Run line: Reds +1.5 (57%) | Brewers -1.5 (44%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)

Reds vs Brewers trend

Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of the last 20 games (+5.15 units, 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.

How to watch Reds vs Brewers and game info

Reds vs Brewers latest injuries

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The Chicago Cubs are a sizable home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates ahead of the 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch of their series opener at Wrigley Field on Friday, Sept. 11.

My top Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga to lead the way in a convincing win this afternoon.

Who will win Pirates vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (45%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts.

Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.

Pittsburgh righty Wilber Dotel is scheduled to make his first career start before giving way to a bullpen that ranks eighth in xERA and 13th in xFIP across the past 30 days, but it’s also a potentially tired group that was tasked with 12 1/3 innings during their three-game series that wrapped up Thursday night.

With the highlighted statistical correction ahead for Chicago paired with them ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against righties for the campaign, I’m anticipating the North Siders giving Dotel early trouble before chipping in runs against the Pittsburgh bullpen.

I recommend Cubs -1.5 to 48%.

COVERS INTEL: Imanaga has generated the sixth-most swinging strikes while allowing the seventh-lowest walk rate among qualified pitchers.

Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The weather forecast calls for the wind to be blowing in modestly at Wrigley Field this afternoon, so with the noted offensive struggles of the Pirates against lefties, I’m not anticipating Pittsburgh piling up runs against Imanaga.

Pittsburgh has played to the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI), and Imanaga has held the Pirates to a minuscule .345 OPS across six starts against them, after all.

Additionally, while there is statistical correction ahead for the Cubs, Pittsburgh essentially going with a bullpen game should keep the Chicago lineup off balance just enough to keep this total Under the number.

This total is in play to 56%.

Pirates vs Cubs home run prediction: Michael Conforto (14%)

Cubs outfielder Michael Conforto has settled into a groove at the plate down the stretch with a massive .584 wOBA and .483 ISO across his past 36 plate appearances, and he’s also put up a high-end .227 ISO against right-handed arms for the campaign.

Pittsburgh righty Carmen Mlodzinski is a candidate to pitch multiple innings in relief Friday, so Conforto should see multiple looks to stay hot this afternoon.

Pirates vs Cubs weather

The forecast calls for a sunny 76°F afternoon with no chance of precipitation and a steady 8 mph breeze blowing inward from the outfield should give pitchers a slight edge.

Pirates vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Pirates 38% | Cubs 65%
• Run line: Pirates +1.5 (55%) | Cubs -1.5 (46%)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (52%) | Under 8 (52%)

Pirates vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have covered the run line in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.

How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info

Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries

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Mariners 4, Rangers 3

• I’m bummed. So bummed.
• This game…sigh.
• Jacob deGrom was, so, so good.
• 19 batters faced. 12 fanned. Just one hit, on a ball that goes for an out if he doesn’t get his glove on it.
• Everything seemed set up for the Rangers to take the finale and keep up in the playoff hunt.
• And then…
• Everything comes crashing down.
• The bullpen, which has been the source of so many problems of late, was to blame.
• But this time, it was one of the reliable guys, one of the pitchers we haven’t had cause to complain about.
• Jakob Junis, someone who feel good about, someone who we think, if we can just get the game to him and Jacob Latz, we are in good shape.
• A hit batter. A slow roller the other way that snuck through the infield. A single. And then a Julio Rodriguez blast.
• And like that, in a span of four batters, the game, and the Rangers season, has turned around.
• The Rangers had an uphill battle to make the playoffs even with a win in Seattle. The odds were against them.
• But I felt like they could do it. They could make it to the postseason. Not that they would, necessarily, but they could.
• Now? Now, it feels like the season is over.
• And we can think about all the games the Rangers could have won this year, but didn’t, all the missed opportunities.
• Or we can just think about this one game, about the ball caroming perfectly off the backstop to Cal Raleigh to tag out Nicky Lopez on what seemed at first to be a no-doubt run scoring wild pitch, about Wyatt Langford being tagged out at home two innings later on an inning-ending wild pitch, about the tying and go-ahead runs being on base in the ninth, only to be stranded.
• It makes me sad.
• I want to make myself set that aside, and appreciate instead the greatness of Jacob deGrom, appreciate what he did in this game, say that his excellence stands apart and can be enjoyed and embraced without regard to the final outcome of the game. That would be the rational thing to do.
• But sports fandom, and sports feelings, aren’t rational, are they?
• Jacob deGrom’s fastball topped out at 99.6 mph, averaging 98.3 mph. Jakob Junis reached 94.0 mph with his fastball. Robert Garcia’s fastball maxed out at 95.0 mph. Robby Ahlstrom touched 95.2 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 108.2 mph ground out. Joc Pederson had a 102.3 mph home run. Danny Jansen had a 101.6 mph single.
• Baseball continues, whether we want it to or not. On to Arizona.

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The New York Mets and New York Yankees enter play in strong form, both cracking the Top-5 in wins over the last 30 games.

I trust Nolan McLean more than Carlos Rodon, making the underdog an appealing target with my Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for the Subway Series opener.

Who will win Mets vs Yankees today: New York Mets (46%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The New York Mets have had a solid process against southpaws the past 30 days, ranking 10th in xSLG and 16th in xBA.

They should have an easier time turning those outputs into results against Carlos Rodon. His xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA over the last month, and he’s given up a ton of barrels (10.9%) and hard contact (45.7%).

Nolan McLean has done an exceptional job neutralizing power, allowing zero homers and two barrels during that span.

He’ll give the Mets a real chance of pulling off the upset.

Play to 49%.

COVERS INTEL:Nolan McLean's 86th percentile ranking in xSLG will make it difficult on a power-dependent Yankees offense to produce.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The Mets have shown signs of improvement under the hood, but the reality is their offense hasn’t produced much vs. lefties.

They sit 27th in BA, 26th in OBP, and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is poised to take a step back, but the Mets are an unlikely candidate to put forth a true ceiling performance against him.

McLean has posted an impressive 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA on the road this season, and given up next to no power of late. He’ll make it tough on a New York Yankees offense that relies heavily on the long ball.

Back the Under to 56%.

Mets vs Yankees home run prediction: Carson Benge (13%)

Rodon leans heavily on the fastball-slider combination, and that’s what Carson Benge hits best against lefties.

He owns a .398 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 18.2% barrel rate when facing fastballs or sliders thrown by southpaws this season. All of his home runs vs. lefties have come against those two pitches.

Benge has only had two at-bats against Rodon in his career but did take him for extra bases in one of them.

Don’t be surprised if he leaves the park this time around.

Mets vs Yankees weather

Neutral impacts are expected for hitters with temperatures hovering in the high 70s and winds blowing left to right.

Mets vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mets 45% | Yankees 56%
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (63%) | Yankees -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Mets vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 25 away games (+9.55 units, 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info

Mets vs Yankees latest injuries

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Two teams in the thick of the Wild Card race in their respective conferences open a crucial 3-game set Friday, when the Texas Rangers visit the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Prediction markets favor the home team, giving the D-Backs a 54% probability.

With Arizona playing better ball – winning four of its last five – my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks will back the home team on Friday, September 11.

Who will win Rangers vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks ML (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a half-game behind San Diego for the NL's final Wild Card, winning their last two series behind a staff posting a 2.73 ERA over the past week.

The Texas Rangers (2.0 games behind Cleveland in the AL Wild Card) have lost four of six, scoring three or fewer runs in three losses, and rank seventh worst in MLB at 4.15 runs per game on the road.

The Rangers have also dropped three of four in Arizona, averaging just 3.0 runs per game.

With Arizona pitching well and Texas struggling to score, I'd back the Diamondbacks moneyline up to a 60% probability.

COVERS INTEL: Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is on a nice run, picking up at least a hit in eight straight games and 12 of his last 14. During that time, Marte has added nine runs scored and eight runs batted in.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (56%)

We've already discussed Texas' pop-gun offense on the road, where they've dropped six of nine, scoring three runs or less in five of those losses.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has struggled this year with a 5.06 ERA, but he's kept the opposition to three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.

Arizona isn't exactly lighting it up at home, ranking middle of the pack at 4.43 runs per game.

While Kumar Rocker has struggled to a 5-11 record and a 4.61 ERA, Arizona is hitting just .176 against him – though in a very small sample size.

The Diamondbacks have also been an Under magnet of late, going Under the total in seven straight games.

Play this to 50%. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Joc Pederson (23%)

Rangers DH Joc Pederson has traditionally hit Kelly hard, though he's yet to homer off him in 28 career at-bats.

Pederson, who leads the Rangers in homers with 26, is hitting .286 against Kelly, picking up two doubles and two triples in his eight hits.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks weather

It will be a warm and humid night, with slight winds blowing out to center field. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 46% | Diamondbacks 55%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (34%) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (56%) | Under 8.5 (46%)

Rangers vs Diamondbacks trend

Arizona has the third-best moneyline record in baseball, at 38-22-0. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks.

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Leave it to the Orioles. With just fifteen games left in this season, and the postseason most probably out of reach, this team has come up with one new, creative way to make headlines: on September 10, word came down that Matt Blood, vice president of player and staff development (and one of Mike Elias’s longest-tenured and most trusted lieutenants), was out. The Sun’s headline called it a “mutual” parting. MASN reported that Blood was at the ballpark for Wednesday’s homestand, and now today, he’s gone.

So what happened? Nothing is on the record just yet. But there are several possible explanations (plus other likely ones I haven’t thought of).

Recall that Matt Blood was one of Elias’s first hires back in September 2019. Seven years a scout with St. Louis, Blood brought in to run the minor leagues from the ground up. He was promoted in October 2023 to vice president of player development and domestic scouting, and again in November 2025 — less than a year ago — to vice president of player and staff development, a title that explicitly expanded his job to include supporting new manager Craig Albernaz and overseeing major-league staff development, not just the farm system. That is a potentially relevant detail: as recently as last winter, Blood was getting promoted, an expression of trust in his judgment, not a demotion. So, something may have changed in ten months.

Was the front office unhappy with the farm system? This doesn’t seem to hold water. Yes, Baltimore’s system tumbled from No. 1 for three straight years (2022–24) to 14th by last season. But arguably that’s the life cycle of a loaded system finally cashing in on its prospects—Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Joey Ortiz, Caden Bodine, Slater de Brun, and others shipped out in trades—not to mention guys like Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, and Cade Povich all aging out of prospect eligibility.

Besides, not much has happened in the span of this season to give a reason to think Blood lost favor for that—if anything, the farm system has gotten healthier at the last two trade deadlines, with last year’s deadline bringing new faces like Boston Bateman or the power-hitting Victor Figueroa, and this year’s Rutschman trade bringing in prospects like Anthony Eyanson, who immediately became Baltimore’s new No. 1 prospect, and Enddy Azocar. A thin farm system just isn’t the smoking gun.

Was the front office unhappy with player development, full stop? This could have some merit. Blood’s November 2025 promotion tied his name directly to the major-league product for the first time—and in the last two seasons, that product has looked rather suspect.

Currently Baltimore sits 71-76, 16.5 games back of the first-place Rays, looking likely to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. It’s not just bad luck; all season we’ve been complaining of recurring lapses on the bases and in the field, plus the fact that plenty of former top prospects aren’t hitting (Gunnar and Colton Cowser come to mind), and that Elias’s administration has yet to develop a homegrown starter other than Brandon Young. If ownership was looking for someone to answer for any of that, it could have been Blood.

Could the split be about Blood himself—friction with the new staff, or wanting a different job than the one he got? I can’t verify this hunch either way, and neither has anyone else writing about it so far. The “mutual” framing in the Sun’s headline could cover everything from an amicable split to a forced-out executive being handed a soft landing.

Was this just fallout from a miserable, dissent-filled season? The organizational mood certainly supports it. This was the summer the Orioles looked at a roster sitting 2½ games from a Wild Card spot and sold anyway: Adley Rutschman to Boston, Dean Kremer to Minnesota, Taylor Ward to Seattle, Tyler Wells to Tampa Bay. Elias himself called the moves ones that “require some short-term heartache,” and said he wished “some of these seasons hadn’t gone the way that they had.” National graders were harsher: CBS Sports handed the deadline a C and suggested Elias’s own job security was now in question. The sell-off felt like an admission of sorts that Plan A had failed, and that seemed an indictment of the Orioles leadership.

None of this tells us definitively why Matt Blood is gone. But it tells us the Orioles may have a real morale problem in the back of the house. In sum, the team enters the 2026–27 offseason with a GM under pressure for the first time in his tenure, a roster that can’t crack the playoffs ceiling, and a player-development pipeline about to be led by someone other than the person who ran it for seven years. Whatever is going on in the Orioles organization, we’ll probably find out the same way we found out about this—quietly, unofficially, and only once someone else is already gone.

Today is a big day for me. Well, not for me but in my orbit. It’s the first time in seven and a half years that both of my spawn are at some semblance of school. It means that I can sit and write this post without someone trying to crawl over me. It’s a feeling akin to not knowing what to do with your hands when someone is taking a photo of you, but more relaxing. Anyway…

Today is also a big day for the Braves. Kinda. After splitting four games in Philadelphia last weekend such that a four-game lead stayed a four-game lead… albeit with four games off the dwindling calendar and the tiebreaker secured (which is kind of like a one-game lead in and of itself), the Braves now take on those same Phillies at home in a three-game set. Even if they get swept, they’ll retain a one-game (but kinda two-game) lead. If they win a game, it’s a three-game (but kinda four-game) lead. If they win or sweep the series, well, that’ll be even more metaphorical weight off our shoulders.

On the flip side, the current playoff format renders the three and four seeds pretty similar, in that both host a three-game series at home. Sure, you’d probably play the Diamondbacks or Padres rather than the Cubs, but in three games, the difference between those teams (and really any teams in MLB) isn’t very large in terms of what you should expect as far as advancement likelihood. So even if the Braves do somehow collapse out of the division lead, it’s functionally not very different, just kind of annoying.

Both the Braves and the Phillies are 4-5 so far in September. The Braves are once again June-ing, albeit in a different way, with the league’s worst offensive and position player performance by both outputs and inputs over these nine September games. But, the Phillies aren’t really much better, as they’re bottom ten in both inputs and outputs, and fourth-worst once you add defense into the mix in terms of value. The pitching is one place these teams are differentiated — the Phillies are sixth in fWAR in September, while the Braves are 23rd. (Phillies are fourth by xFIP-, Braves are 16th.) But, all of that just gets to the point where, again — the Braves keep winning mucho games on and above their production. If they keep doing that — and they haven’t stopped yet — they’ll probably coast to the division title, though it won’t look pretty.

One thing that might make you feel better is that the Braves lined up Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle for this series, while the Phillies had to use Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in their prior series. The Braves will still have to contend with Jesus Luzardo, who dominated on Monday, and I hope they’re cooking up a completely different approach against him than anything they’ve tried while he’s been in his Phillies uniform.

Me, I’m hoping they actually turn around the offense in a way they can build on going forward, but that’s unlikely to happen considering they’ve spent the last three-ish months wandering in the proverbial wilderness of offensive strategies, and their most recent win came as a result of bleeders through the infield while they got outhomered.

But, all that said, how are you feeling about this series?

Earlier this week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote about the possibility of MLB expansion, noting that there are already a few cities in the lead to possibly receive new franchises. Those cities are Salt Lake City, Nashville, Raleigh, Portland, Orlando, and Montreal. 

Of course, the impending fight over a new collective bargaining agreement will be an obstacle to expansion, but it’s something that both the owners and players likely align on. More teams means more revenue for the league and more job opportunities for players. The rest of the CBA will be contentious, but this plank feels like something that could be agreed upon quickly. 

Passan notes that commissioner Rob Manfred has stated that he wants two new expansion teams, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, before his planned retirement in January of 2029. That means the process would likely begin in earnest as soon as a new CBA is ratified. 

Each of the six cities listed above have their own unique case for why they should receive a team, but Nashville is one that should particularly be of interest in regard to the Phillies. If you remember, Dave Dombrowski was a large part of an effort to begin building a baseball infrastructure in Nashville before he was hired to be the Phillies president of baseball operations. It’s likely that Dombrowski will receive a new contract with the Phillies soon, as his current one expires following 2027. However, one cannot be sure that he won’t feel the pull of building something completely new again if Nashville does indeed win the expansion sweepstakes. 

In any case, it certainly appears as though we will see two new MLB teams in our near future. So, where do you think the possible expansion teams will be?