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Throughout the season, we have used FTN’s new NBA StatsHub to help separate surface-level production from true impact. Those advanced metrics have provided the necessary context to effectively identify emerging stars, analyze trades, give insight into awards races, and provide analysis on the league’s top playoff contenders.

Now, as the regular season enters its final stretch, the focus shifts to identifying which stars are peaking at the right time. Using NBA StatsHub, let’s take a look at a few players who are playing at a high level since the All-Star break.

Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets

In the coming days, Kevin Durant will surpass Michael Jordan for the fifth place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. Yet, the 37-year-old Durant, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon in the middle of his prime, isn’t just stat-padding his Hall of Fame resume.

Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 25.9 points on only 17.5 field goal attempts per game. He’s the only player in the league averaging 25+ points while shooting 50%-plus from the field, 40%-plus from 3-point territory and 90%-plus from the free throw line.

He leads the NBA by a substantial margin in Points Over Expectation (+5.5) in that span, with Luka Dončić (+4.1) and Anthony Edwards (+3.8) a distant second and third, respectively.

Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

Earlier this season, we examined the league’s most underrated scorers using Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and came away wondering if Kon Knueppel could be the NBA’s next superstar.

Since that point, he’s averaged 19.7 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the floor, including 44.0% from 3-point territory. Since the All-Star break, he ranks sixth in the entire NBA in Points Over Expectation. He’s been Charlotte’s most valuable player during that stretch, with an incredulous +22.4 Net Rating.

Knueppel was +500 in the Rookie of the Year race when we wrote Feb. 18 that he has been the NBA’s most impactful first-year player. One month later, he’s -200 to win the award, looking like a clear and obvious favorite if he can stay healthy during the final month of the regular season.

James Harden, Cleveland Cavaliers

Immediately following the Cavaliers trade for James Harden, ESPN gave Cleveland a B grade for the deal. CBS Sports gave Cleveland a C. Bleacher Report was the most critical, giving the Cavaliers a D+.

We gave Cleveland an A+ for the trade, arguing that Harden is still a high-impact player.

Since the trade, the Cavaliers own the second-best offensive rating in the NBA, despite Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen both missing substantial time due to injury.

A big reason for their success has been the play of Harden, who ranks 7th in the league in Points Over Expectation since the All-Star break. The team has a +4.7 Net Rating with him on the floor, benefitting from his playmaking ability, efficient scoring and veteran leadership.

The Cavaliers have emerged as the primary threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference. If healthy, they have their best chance to return to the NBA Finals since LeBron James left for the Lakers nearly a decade ago.

The Takeaway

Kevin Durant, Kon Knueppel and James Harden haven’t simply been filling the stat sheet on a nightly basis because they take a lot of shots or operate in a high-usage role for their respective team. These players are offering measurable, sustainable benefits to their club at the most important time of the season.

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If you thought the Utah Jazz’s overall record was bad, their mark against division rivals is even worse – and it’s not likely to get any better tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

This feels like a hopeless task for a Utah team that’s 1-11 against the rest of the Northwest Division and firmly in full tank mode, but my Jazz vs Timberwolves predictions target one of the visitors’ youngsters getting a chance in the spotlight.

Check on my NBA picks for this clash on Wednesday, March 18. 

Jazz vs Timberwolves prediction

Jazz vs Timberwolves best bet: Cody Williams Over 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

The Utah Jazz don’t seem focused on boosting their win total, but the coming weeks give them a chance to evaluate their roster. That’s good news for Cody Williams, who has played 36+ minutes in six straight games, hitting this combo Over in five of them.

Williams posted an eye-popping 34-7-7 stat line on Sunday and should be active again as Utah navigates games without Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George.

Even though the Minnesota Timberwolves can be elite defensively, Williams doesn’t need to match his season averages to make this prop a winner.

Jazz vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Even on the second night of a back-to-back set, the T-Wolves have the defensive studs to keep Utah at bay, but the offense will largely be in the hands of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.

Randle is coming off back-to-back 32-point outings, and I expect DiVincenzo to bounce back from last night’s 0-for-8 dud, as he boasts a 39% mark from downtown.

Jazz vs Timberwolves SGP

• Timberwolves -13.5
• Julius Randle Over 25.5 points
• Donte DiVincenzo Over 14.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Stifle Tower

No one needs to tell the Jazz about Rudy Gobert’s impact. 

This SGP jumps on the Frenchman’s presence around the rim at both ends of the floor, and he’s coming off a monster effort last night, finishing with 19 rebounds and four blocks.

Naz Reid’s absence should also mean an uptick in minutes for Gobert.

Jazz vs Timberwolves SGP

• Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 points
• Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 rebounds
• Rudy Gobert Over 2.5 blocks
• Timberwolves -13.5

Jazz vs Timberwolves odds

• Spread: Jazz -13.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +13.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Jazz +550 | Timberwolves -800
• Over/Under: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110)

Jazz vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Jazz. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Timberwolves.

How to watch Jazz vs Timberwolves

Jazz vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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Yesterday’s announcement that Giannis Antetokounmpo would miss some time with a hyperextended left knee probably came as a relief to many Bucks fans. Milwaukee is 6.5 games out of the East’s 10th seed with 14 games remaining, making it essentially impossible to climb back into the race, so there are plenty who feel the star should be—or should already have been—shut down. The temptation to tank and improve lottery position remains, even as other teams that exited the playoff hunt earlier already tanked harder. Though the Bucks are just 2-6 since Giannis returned from his calf strain, they have only just now moved into a tie for the ninth spot with the Bulls.

Today, we have a report from The Athletic’s Eric Nehm—later echoed by ESPN’s Shams Charania—that Giannis and the team are “at odds” about what to do moving forward. The Bucks, probably on the same side as most fans, want Giannis to remain sidelined as the year ends. A fair ask, considering he’s missed 32 games this season with a variety of lower-body injuries and the team isn’t really battling for seeding. Ever the competitor, Giannis doesn’t want to do that, though: he wants to play, presumably when/if he’s cleared.

Whether the team’s medical staff clears him anytime soon is unknown. Yesterday’s report stated he’d be reevaluated in a week, so nothing appears imminent, but it’s not just the knee: he also sprained his ankle last week. Add that to the calf strain that hampered him from December into March, plus a groin strain in November, and it’s not hard to see him as less than 100% on the floor, no matter what he’s self-diagnosed. To the organization and fans, Giannis’ health is a top—probably the top—priority.

The issue here is weighing what makes Giannis happy. Even if they’re far removed from the race, he clearly wants to be playing. I don’t think the Bucks’ sole motivation here is necessarily to lose more games and move into a higher lottery position, even though this from Nehm might suggest that’s the case:

The Bucks, per league sources, have made it clear to their franchise centerpiece that it would be in their shared interest for him to sit out with the team currently 6 1/2 games behind the Charlotte Hornets for the final Play-In Tournament spot. While injuries have forced Antetokounmpo to miss 32 games already this season, league sources tell The Athletic the 10-time All-Star forward has informed the team he has no desire to cut his season short.

And later in the same article:

Bucks leadership has already approached Antetokounmpo about the idea of not playing another game for Milwaukee this season, which the franchise’s all-time leading scorer firmly rebuffed, league sources told The Athletic Tuesday.

“Shared interest” can merely just mean “we want you healthy, you want to be healthy” with no regard towards the standings. After all, it’s going to be tough for Milwaukee to move further down: at 28-40, they could stay in ninth depending on how Chicago finishes, but they are at least 4.5 games clear of other teams. Memphis is in eighth, with Dallas and New Orleans—who own the right to swap picks with Milwaukee—tied in sixth. All have 23 wins and either 44 or 46 losses. Even without Giannis, it will be nearly as hard to surpass those teams as it would be to make the playoffs. Those franchises are also trying to tank. On the flip side, they are 4.5 games clear of Portland in 11th, so the 9–10 range seems all but guaranteed, regardless of how long Giannis misses.

What I think this ultimately comes down to is being on the same page with Giannis. Of course, neither party wants him to sustain a more catastrophic, long-term injury. For their part, the Bucks want Giannis to extend this summer: he’s the most important player in franchise history, and without him, their profits completely dry up along with whatever title odds employing him brings (which are never zero, as long as he’s here, healthy, and in his prime). Giannis wants to be back in the business of competing in the playoffs, which could happen in Milwaukee as soon as next year if the Bucks play their cards right this offseason. One-year gaps in contention are common: see Golden State in 2019–20, Philadelphia and Phoenix last year, etc.

For Giannis’ part, he needs to listen to the medical professionals. On Sunday, he told trainers he thought he could have reentered the game, but they convinced him it wasn’t worth it since they were up double-digits at the time. Good on him for taking their advice. He said after the game he didn’t think he needed any imaging, but the Bucks had him undergo it yesterday anyway. Those results came back clean, per Doc Rivers.

I was in that postgame huddle on Sunday, and Giannis seemed outwardly positive about his conversation with the trainers and respected their opinion. But that’s just a single game, not the remaining 14, and it’s a medical opinion not being relayed by the front office. I don’t necessarily think this is the high drama some will undoubtedly spin it as, but the Bucks have a delicate line to walk here. Tanking isn’t something Giannis wants, and he’s going to approach this offseason looking for reasons to stay in Milwaukee. Being told not to play when he’s medically cleared—which he currently is not, we can safely assume—probably won’t sit well with him.

I’m of the belief that when the medical staff clears him to play, the front office should acquiesce. It’s incumbent on those professionals to clear him responsibly, affirming that no, he won’t be risking significant injury to play NBA basketball, whenever that may be. Whether that’s in a week or two, or it’s the final week of the season, we don’t know. But since his presence is pretty unconnected from their record at this point, and assuming Giannis continues respecting trainers’ opinions (he’s never indicated he has anything less than complete trust in them), the Bucks should let him play when they say it’s safe. Shutting him down unnecessarily strains a player-team relationship that must be preserved entering the offseason.

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The Jazz have achieved 2 essential losses already on this quick road trip, and are looking to continue the trend Wednesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves. However, these are not the same Timberwolves we’ve gotten used to seeing in the Western Conference finals; they will be without star guard Anthony Edwards, who is projected to be out 1-2 weeks with right knee inflammation. This is unfortunate on 3 fronts. First; Anthony Edwards is consistently one of the most entertaining star players to watch in the league, and this contest will be worse without him. Second; a matchup with a player of Edward’s caliber provides very useful experience for the youngsters, who can use every minute of playtime versus star players in preparation for the Jazz 2027 playoff run. And, perhaps most importantly, third; the Jazz’s likelihood of pulling off a stunning win against the Timberwolves increases when Anthony Edwards is nursing a sore knee on the bench.

Nevertheless, the Timberwolves have every incentive to win – they’re currently tied for the 4th seed with the Nuggets and Rockets, so any separation in the race for home court advantage in the first round would be huge for them. And, on the other side of the same coin, the Jazz have a few incentives to lose. They are currently slotted with the 5th best lottery odds, which gives them a 99.4% chance of staying in the top 8 and keeping their pick in the loaded 2026 draft. However, they’re only 3 games behind the Sacramento Kings for the 4th worst record, which would guarantee their keeping the pick. This is to say that this game is enormously important for both parties.

Cody Williams will look to continue his momentum from his career high, 34 point night on Sunday versus the Kings. Additionally, Anderrson Garcia and Bez Mbeng will have another opportunity to show their defensive chops during their 10-day contract tryouts. If I had to bet on which Jazz player will have a big night, my money would be on Isaiah Collier – the combination of Keyonte George and potentially Ace Bailey (got whacked by Anderrson Garcia on a rebound all the way into the concussion report) out with injury, with the Timberwolves sometimes-shoddy guard point of attack defense, Isaiah will have the usage and matchups necessary to put up a big night statistically.

The Timberwolves, who have struggled a bit without Edwards this year (7 wins and 4 losses), will likely funnel additional usage to Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle. We will also get a good look at newest Timberwolf Ayo Dosunmu, acquired from the Bulls at the trade deadline, who took the open starting spot on 3/17 against the Suns with Edwards injured.

Which Jazz youngster are you hoping to see a big game from against the Timberwolves? Let me know below!

Injury Report

Utah Jazz:

Keyonte George – OUT (Hamstring)

Blake Hinson – OUT (Two-way)

Lauri Markkanen – OUT (Hip)

Jaren Jackson Jr. – OUT (Knee)

Walker Kessler – OUT (Shoulder)

Jusuf Nurkic – OUT (Nose)

Ace Bailey – QUESTIONABLE (Concussion)

John Konchar – QUESTIONABLE (Calf)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards – OUT (Knee)

Enrique Freeman – OUT (Two-way)

Julian Phillips – OUT (G League Assignment)

Naz Reid – OUT (Ankle)

Rokko Zikarsky – OUT (Two-way)

Jaylen Clark – QUESTIONABLE (Calf)

How to Watch

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis MN

When: 6 P.M. MT

Channel: KJZZ, SEG+

Radio: 97.5 FM 1280 AM, KSL Sports App