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Parsing through the NBA’s over/under win totals is a meaningful way to establish expectations for every team entering the new season even if you have no interest in gambling. At this point, it would be easy to look back on the San Antonio Spurs and believe their ascent atop the Western Conference was all but preordained last season with Victor Wembanyama, but in reality expectations were pretty meager. The Spurs’ win total was only 44.5 games before they roared to 62 wins and a trip to the 2026 NBA Finals.

The sportsbooks are really good at setting these lines. I went 4-3 on NBA my over/under picks last season, but it ended up being 3-4 for the lines in my story because the New York Knicks’ win total was one game higher at time of publish. That’s how thin the margins often are.

This season is particularly difficult to project because of the NBA’s new anti-tanking rules. There were a lot of free wins on the schedule last year against teams trying to prioritize ping pong balls in the lottery. Teams can’t game the system anymore with the lottery odds now almost completely randomized, especially when the league’s three worst teams actually have worse odds at the No. 1 pick. With the 2026-2027 season just around the corner, here are my best bets for the NBA over/under win total lines. All lines are via FanDuel.

Chicago Bulls under 29.5 wins

There’s finally some optimism around the Bulls with the arrival of a potential star rookie in Caleb Wilson and a new front office led by Bryson Graham. Graham signed Norm Powell, traded for Nic Claxton, and drafted Dailyn Swain with his second first-round pick, but there’s still a lot more work to be done. It’s hard to see many Eastern Conference teams worse than the Bulls this year. Chicago projects as a below-average team in rebuilding, three-point shooting volume, and defensive turnover creation, and that’s a tough way to win when you don’t have a true star player to fall back on. It’s likely that Powell is traded in Feb., and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few more veterans follow him out the door as Graham looks to put his stamp on the team. The Bulls could be fun-bad with Wilson and Matas Buzelis both among the league’s most explosive athletes, but this line still seems too high unless Wilson is an impact two-way player right away.

Houston Rockets over 46.5 wins

The Rockets won 52 games last year without Fred VanVleet for the whole season and without Steven Adams after January. Adams will be an injury risk every year, but he’s healthy to start this season, and that gives Houston its greatest strength back on the offensive glass. I’m buying improvement from both Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson this year, and even if that doesn’t happen, any of Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard could also take a leap. Kevin Durant will suffer age-related decline eventually, but he was pretty damn good last year and I wouldn’t expect him to fall off too much yet. The Rockets will turn every game into a rock fight. It won’t be pretty, but I do think it can be effective.

Los Angeles Lakers over 44.5 wins

The Lakers won 53 games last year with Austin Reaves being limited to 51 appearances and Luka Doncic limited to 64. This year’s team won’t have LeBron James to fall back on when Doncic and/or Reaves are out, but they majorly upgraded the center position while fortifying the rotation with players who should be more effective in the regular season than the playoffs. Walker Kessler will be there to protect the rim every time Doncic and Reaves get burned, and it won’t be hard for him to be more effective than Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes were last year. Sandro Mamukelashvili was an excellent offensive weapon in Toronto last season, and I like his pairing with Luka whether he’s at the four or the five. Matisse Thybulle also feels like a good buy-low candidate whose shortcoming won’t be exposed until the playoffs. Even if Doncic plays a similar number of games to last year, I think the Lakers have the star-power and the coaching to clear this win total with relative ease.

Memphis Grizzlies over 29.5 wins

The Grizzlies were shamelessly tanking to end last season, but it worked out wonderfully for them by moving up to the third pick to draft Cameron Boozer. I didn’t just call Boozer the best prospect in the draft, I also said he’ll be the next American-born player to win MVP! No pressure, man. Boozer will be the youngest player in the NBA this season, but I think he’s ready to rock from the jump. Zach Edey feels like the real swing factor in Grizzlies’ optimism. He’s consistently battled injuries during his short NBA career, but he’s super effective when he’s healthy and should be a great fit next to Boozer in the front court. I’m pretty high on Memphis’ collection of guards with Ty Jerome — one of the league’s most underrated players — leading the charge, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam Spencer makes a big leap this year too. Cedric Coward is another breakout candidate. Memphis is expected to be among the worst teams in the West this season, and while I get it, I think they’re going to be a lot better than that.

Golden State Warriors under 38.5 wins

I was really high on the Warriors last year at this time, but they were basically dead-on-arrival after Jimmy Butler tore his ACL in January. Butler will spend the first part of this season continuing his rehab, and it’s hard to believe the Warriors will hit the ground running without him. Stephen Curry remains spectacular, but can the Warriors really count on him for a full season at age-38? Draymond Green is still awesome on defense, but his offense gets worse every year and pretty close to unplayable. Kristaps Porzingis is really good when he’s healthy, but he’s never healthy. I really like Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Brandin Podziemski, and I can talk myself into a De’Anthony Melton comeback. The Warriors could make me look stupid if Curry plays 70+ games — he’s done it two of the last three seasons — but this line is still a little too rich for my blood.

Toronto Raptors over 46.5

The Raptors turned Brandon Ingram into Kawhi Leonard this summer, and I’d bet that’s enough to win one more game than last year to clear this line. Leonard was a top-5 player in the league last year, and he’s a huge upgrade over Ingram if he can stay on the floor. Obviously that’s always a big if when it comes to Kawhi, but I’d like to think he has motivation to show fans he can still ball out after his reputation took a hit from the Clippers’ cap circumvention scandal. Scottie Barnes suddenly looks like one of the best second bananas in the league, Collin Murray-Boyles should be in for a sophomore leap, and the Raptors’ bench has an intriguing mix of defensive bulldogs (Jamal Shead) and floor spacers (Ja’Kobe Walter). I’m worried about the center and point guard play, but still think this team should be very good if Leonard can get to around the 65-game mark.

Wizards under 33.5 wins

Okay, I have the Wizards at under 35.5 wins at my local sportsbook, and I much prefer that line. I’m still willing to fade this team even after bringing in Anthony Davis and Trae Young. Davis could still be one of the better players in the NBA if he’s healthy and motivated, but I just don’t see how he’s happy in Washington even if this team meets their meager expectations. Young was very good a few years ago, but his margin for error was always slim given his lack of size, and it feels like he’s endured enough injuries to slip just enough athletically to cut his peak short. A.J. Dybantsa should be awesome as the No. 1 overall pick, but I’m skeptical of the fit between him and Young. I like all the young guys here, from Kyshawn George to Tre Johnson to Alex Sarr to Will Riley, but I’m not sure they’re ready to impact winning. I also can’t believe head coach Brian Keefe is back. The defense is probably going to be terrible barring a vintage AD season, and there’s not a lot of floor spacing on offense. I’ll pound the under on the Wizards wherever the line is.

Jazz to make playoffs (+120)

FanDuel has the Jazz over/under at 37.5 wins, and I think I like taking them to make the playoffs as the better bet because the odds are more favorable. It’s hard to imagine the Jazz can crack the top-6 of the West this year, which means they will have to make it in via the play-in tournament. That’s always a scary proposition, but I like Utah’s combination of top-end talent and coaching better than some of their rivals for the last two West playoff spots like the Suns, Blazers, and Warriors. This is a big bet on Will Hardy, but after years of tanking, he should be ready to show world that he’s one of the league’s best head coaches. I’m a bit worried about the lack of playmaking on this team, and they will need Jusuf Nurkic to stay healthy if they want to compete on the glass, but there’s a lot of offensive firepower here, and it should be enough to sneak into the playoffs.

The Dallas Mavericks are gearing up for the 2026-2027 season, with players starting to transition their offseason regimens into training camp mode as next week nears. With the roster all but set for the upcoming season, there was still much to do behind the scenes. The Mavericks listed out no fewer than 10 additions or updates to their staff via press release earlier today.

Although mundane on the surface, these updates are intriguing in that they shed light on a variety of aspects that often go overlooked by team observers. For example, Ally Wade is the Director of Mind Health. The team psychologist is rarely spoken about, but serves a critical role for players relating to both on-court and everyday life situations. Chef John Bauer is the Director of Culinary Operations, because the days of grabbing fast food at the airport have given way to fully catered meals and custom nutrition plans. Joe Touomou will serve as Director of Africa/Player Development & Scouting, bringing nearly three decades of international developmental experience and perhaps indicating Masai Ujiri’s influence stemming from his own involvement in foreign affairs, especially in Africa. Then there are two other names to take note of: Nico Berg and Michael Finley

Nico Berg

Berg is the newly minted Executive Director of Health and Performance. This should be important to any and all Mavs’ fans who: a) watched a team come dangerously close to having to forfeit games on the grounds of not having enough available players; b) anxiously await the return of Dereck Lively, who was rumored to have nearly been put back on the court just before requiring a second surgery; or c) remember the days of Casey Smith and a team that kept their players healthy and their overall health as paramount.

On the heels of a training staff that allegedly in-fought and held atypical qualifications, the Mavericks bring in Berg, a physiotherapist with a resume featuring stints in the NFL and NHL. He also spent 2010-2014 with the Minnesota Timberwolves where he received endorsements from well-known players, including former Maverick JJ Barea, so he is no stranger to the NBA. If Berg can keep players on the floor and assist players like Kyrie Irving and Lively as they work back from injury, it will have a massive positive impact on the outcome of games and will help put the injury bug in the rearview.

Michael Finley

The longtime Maverick player and front office fixture garnered some speculation when Ujiri took over and Mike Schmitz was named GM. It soon became apparent Finley was staying put and now we have details on the role he will be in. Finley will be the Senior Director of Player, Community and Alumni Engagement. If we can properly infer Finley’s role based on the title, he ought to be a tremendous fit. Finley has been part of the Mavericks and the Dallas community with only a few breaks, going back to the 1990’s.

Don’t sleep on this role. The Mavericks experienced a lot of damage to their overall goodwill and community relations on the heels of the Luka Doncic trade. The fallout of that even seems to have put adopted son Dirk Nowitzki at arm’s length. Finley may be the perfect person to rebuild some of what was lost and he will hopefully be able to reengage Nowitzki and others. In the Patrick Dumont ownership era, it was in vogue to distance the team from its past. Dumont has since seemed to recognize that approach was less than ideal and has done a noble job in trying to rectify it. This move could be a key element in cultivating the culture that once was, while continuing to move forward.

I invite you to follow me @_80MPH on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.

There are players who leave their stamp on the sport of basketball and then there are those who become synonymous with the sport itself. The NBA world lost a quintessential legend on Wednesday. Bob Pettit, 93, was one of the earliest superstars of the game. In 1954, the LSU standout was drafted second overall by the Milwaukee Hawks. He was named 1955 Rookie of the Year.

He and the Hawks made a move to St. Louis that summer and the following season he was named the league’s inaugural Most Valuable Player, an honor he picked up again three years later.

In 1958, Pettit and the Hawks won their only NBA championship, though Pettit appeared in four NBA Finals series during his career. He garnered eleven All-Star appearances, every season of his career, and was the league’s scoring champion in 1956 and 1959, the same years he was named MVP.

Pettit holds the top two NBA All-Star Game rebounding performances – 26 in 1958 and 27 in 1962 as well as the second-highest All-Star Game points per game average. Pettit averaged over 20 points and 12 rebounds per game in each of his eleven seasons. Pettit is the only retired player in NBA history (with more than two seasons) to average more than 20 points per game in every season they’ve played.

He was the first NBA player to hit the 20,000 point mark. And in 1970, Pettit was inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Pettit, along with Bob Cousy, George Mikan, and Bill Russell is one of four players who was named to all four NBA anniversary teams.

Pettit’s #9 was retired by the Hawks, one of only five players in the franchise history.

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Point guard is the deepest position in the league, and it’s the hardest position to make a career out of as a role player.

The talent pool for bench guards is incredibly vast. The gap between the third point guard in the NBA and a good G League guard is thin — much thinner than any other position. Just thinking about this for a few seconds explains why.

The height and athleticism prerequisites aren’t as stringent for point guards as they are for centers. There’s only so many coordinated and athletic people in the world who are 6’10” or taller. That’s why older players who are well past their primes, like De’Andre Jordan, Mason Plumlee, and Bismack Biyombo, all spent time on rosters last season. The center depth just isn’t there, especially not at the G League level, where you typically have either severely undersized bigs trying to get by on toughness or appropriately sized bigs that don’t have the coordination or athleticism to make it onto an NBA roster.

Those same issues just aren’t there for point guards. Far more people meet the prerequisites to play point guard, meaning there’s far more people capable and qualified to take your spot. That’s worrying for someone like Craig Porter Jr., who is entering the final year of his four-year deal. Additionally, a prospect coming up from the G League to be the third point guard wouldn’t be making as much as Porter in what would be his fifth season, which is meaningful in a salary cap league.

Porter is certainly qualified to be the third point guard in the NBA. He’s shown this repeatedly throughout his three-year career when he’s been asked to enter the rotation due to injuries. While they aren’t typical point guard skills, his ability to accumulate an exceptionally high steal, block, and rebound percentage for a guard is helpful. That, combined with his ability to finish and create for others in the open court, has made him a quality end-of-the-bench player.

However, if Porter is going to continue collecting an NBA paycheck for multiple more seasons, he will need to prove that he’s more than just an adequate third guard. Ideally, he would show that he can be a solid backup guard that belongs in the rotation on a nightly basis.

There’s a few things keeping Porter from being a quality backup guard. We’ll start first with the offense.

Right now, Porter isn’t an efficient scorer despite having numbers that you would expect from someone who was. Last season, Porter finished 70% of his looks at the rim (86th percentile) and 37% from three (61st percentile). Those are both good numbers for a guard — even though you’d like to see Porter be less hesitant to take threes. The problems come when he drives and doesn’t get all the way to the rim.

Porter isn’t a physically imposing player, which is why he went undrafted out of Wichita State. When he gets cut off from the rim, he doesn’t have many options as a scorer. Last season, Porter took 29% of his shots between the restricted area and the free-throw line (87th percentile) and completed a dismal 32% of them (13th percentile). The floater and in-between game aren’t there. If you cut Porter off from the rim, you’re forcing him into a shot he’s missing two-thirds of the time.

The problems in the short midrange are why Porter finished last season in the 39th percentile for points per shot attempt (1.07). This is an issue when you consider that Porter isn’t a lockdown defender despite accumulating blocks, steals, and rebounds.

Porter struggles to stay with his opponent in the half-court. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness to be a good man-to-man defender and isn’t an adept screen navigator. The coaching staff has tried to compensate for this by having Porter pick up his opponent full court more often. This has led to mixed results, although this was something he became better at later last season.

Porter has been a quality third guard the last three seasons. This year, he’ll possibly have his final chance with the Cleveland Cavaliers to show that he can be more than that. And the stage will be set for him to do so.

The Cavs enter the season with Porter being the most accomplished point guard off the bench. Tyrese Proctor didn’t get many opportunities in his rookie season, and Meleek Thomas — even if he does play — projects more as a two than a one. This leaves the stage open for Porter to show that he can step into this role right now.

Porter will start the year in the rotation since Kenny Atkinson often plays 10 or more at the start of the season. Whether or not he stays there as the year progresses will depend on whether he can improve some of the issues that have plagued him in the past.

Back up point guard is one of the bigger concerns for this group coming into this season. It’s the position they’re most likely to address with a midseason trade. A step up from Porter could change that.

Every season is make-or-break for players at the end of NBA rosters. There’s always someone coming up behind you, willing to take your spot while demanding less money to do so. Porter has some intriguing tools. He just hasn’t put them together for an extended enough time to prove that he can be a legitimate backup point guard and rotation player on a contender. We’ll see if that changes this year.

NBA legend Bob Pettit died on Wednesday. He was 93.

Pettit was a blend of many things. Born in Louisiana during the Great Depression, Pettit attended LSU, and was one of the first great players in the NBA. Drafted by the Milwaukee Hawks in 1954, Pettit averaged 20.4 points and 13.8 rebounds per game that season, and won Rookie of the Year. He also had to move from center to forward, a position he had never played.

Didn’t matter: he excelled, anyway.

In 1958, the Boston Celtics had Bill Russell, and were building the greatest dynasty in the history of American professional sports. The St. Louis Hawks (the team moved after Pettit’s rookie season) nipped the Celtics in Game 6, 110-109, to win the title. Russell played injured for much of the series, but no one could control Pettit, who scored 50 points in that game.

His game was surprisingly modern. He was a good enough ball handler to drive and score, or he could shoot from well outside. And, as noted above, he was an excellent rebounder. If he played today, he’d be called a Stretch 4.

He earned a lot of respect during his career, notably from Russell, who said that Pettit invented the concept of second effort, and praised his fierce play.

In a small, kind, but still crushing anecdote, Russell once brought his grandfather to an NBA game. When Russell introduced his grandfather, who was born not all that long after slavery ended, Pettit shook his hand and said “Nice to meet you, Mr. Russell.”

On the way home after the game, the elder Russell told his grandson that that was the first time a white man had ever called him Mr. Russell.

In a small twist, Boston traded Ed MacCauley to St. Louis in order to obtain Russell, who the Hawks took with the #2 pick of the 1956 NBA Draft. Odds are Russell wouldn’t have lasted long in St. Louis, with the racism woven into the city at that time, but it’s fun to wonder what the Hawks would have been like with Russell and Pettit.

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Paul George has a Hall of Fame resume. 

Entering Year 17, George is a 9-time All-Star, 6-time All-NBA forward, 4-time All-Defensive Team member, an Olympic gold medalist, and is one of the most recognizable stars of his era. 

And yet, it’s a tricky legacy. 

No one will dispute PG’s impact on the game. He’s one of his era’s most dynamic two-way players, and he’s been recognized as such. When it’s all said and done, George has made a good argument to be considered a top-100 player all-time.

But true championship opportunities have always eluded him. 

A lot of George’s legacy has been defined by what could have been, or in some cases, what should have been. 

No one would fault George or the Pacers for falling short in three straight battles with Miami’s Big 3, two of which were during George’s ascension into superstar territory and one that went down to a Game 7 in Miami, but George’s era as a Clipper is more complicated. 

Their 3-1 collapse to Denver in the bubble was an all-time choke job, and it robbed us of what would have been a genuinely interesting series with a Lakers team they matched well with in the regular season. After that, Leonard and George played just 13 playoff games together across their next four seasons in LA, never seeming to find a way to stay on the court at the same time. 

There was also the weaponization of his “Playoff P” moniker, which has mostly settled into an outdated reference, especially after his admirable performance in the 2021 postseason without Leonard, and his revitalized play against Boston this past year as a 76er. Especially during his LA tenure though, if you were a true PG supporter, chances are you were having to fight against the notion that George was a playoff dropper.

As it stands now, he’s fighting within the category of “greats without a NBA championship,” but where he fits in that conversation can feel a little complicated. 

Legends like Charles Barkley, John Stockton, Patrick Ewing and Reggie Miller are some of the loudest names in that category, yet they all reached that final stage for at least one chance to capture a title. 

Maybe the closest situation to George’s would be that of Carmelo Anthony, who like PG, had a long and productive career with six All-NBA nods, is an Olympic gold medalist, and only made it as far as the conference finals. Both players aren’t just missing that ring, they’re missing the chance at even proving themselves on the defining stage of the Finals altogether.

His injury history, the playoff highs and lows, and even his podcast have played some role in the way George is both talked about and regarded within the upper echelon of NBA players. You can have dozens of All-Star appearances, you can be All-NBA ten times over, but nobody wants to be in the conversation of greats who never won the big one. 

“Yeah he’s great, but he was never a champion.” 

But what if he was? 

How does the perception of his career shift if PG-13 leads to Banner 19?

“I’m a guy that, when it’s all said and done, where my legacy falls being compared to guys in my category, I’ve yet to have something to show for it,” George said at his introductory press conference. “So for me, that’s where that chip lies on my shoulder.” 

The Celtics, now a third season removed from Banner 18, still have championship DNA left over from that historic 2024 team. They’ll hope that past identity combined with impactful new faces and budding young talent will be enough to get them back to the main stage.

The Celtics have done their best to get with the times. They’re trying to make a team that’s deep, captained by a true superstar, and isn’t held at gunpoint by the second apron. They’re trying to build a winner without sacrificing all paths to future improvement. He’s no longer the face of a franchise, but George’s impact and availability will be a vital element to a title chase.  

However long George’s Celtics tenure ends up being, this feels like the inevitable last chance as a major player to win a championship. And maybe it’s his best chance. 

At his current level of production, it feels like George’s Celtics tenure will have a contending window that goes at least into next season to capture that 19th championship. He’ll be 38 years old by the time his current deal ends, far removed from his prime. Perhaps by then he’ll slide into the “overqualified role player” archetype and provide the veteran savvy Al Horford left behind.  

Like Melo, who entered the Hall of Fame in 2025, George doesn’t need a ring as proof of his distinctive greatness on a basketball floor. A championship doesn’t fundamentally change just how good George became and just how fast he rose to prominence in the league. 

He doesn’t need to prove he’s a great player, or a Hall of Famer, or where his place rests among the era’s best. 

And yet there remains that chip on his shoulder because he knows that, for how great his career has been, it’s missing something. 

It’s missing a storybook ending, that last perfect sendoff to wrap up his NBA journey with one defining image on a podium, engulfed by green and white confetti. The mission finally accomplished. 

“The chip on my shoulder is, I’m a winning player,” George said. “I believe I’m all about winning, being a winning teammate, a winning locker room guy.”

What would a title do for Paul George’s legacy? It’d complete his story, while adding another chapter to Boston’s own. 

Perhaps he’ll find that storybook ending as a Celtic. 

It's been a tale of two summers for the Los Angeles Lakers.

After getting swept in the second round of last year's playoffs and losing LeBron James to free agency, president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka was emboldened by Mark Walter's heavy investment in building out the front office to overhaul the roster around Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves.

The first swing was the biggest one: trading for Walker Kessler from the Utah Jazz for two first-round draft picks and two unprotected first-round pick swaps and immediately signing him to a four-year, $129.47 million contract. It may have cost everything, to quote Thanos, but the Lakers secured the best available center this offseason to pair with Dončić for the long-term.

Pelinka used almost all of the cap space created by James' departure on depth, adding Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams. All solid signings, but there are still questions on what this Lakers team's ceiling truly is, especially in a stacked Western Conference in which they'll have to go through the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

Almost all of that was overshadowed by Walter's shocking decision to sell his majority stake in the Lakers to Joshua Kushner and former Disney CEO Bob Iger for a record $12.5 billion amid a federal investigation into disclosures involving Walter-controlled insurers and related investments. This all just 10 months after buying the team from the Buss family, the majority of whom in turn voted to sell their remaining 17.8% in shares to Kushner and Iger. The entire transaction, however, is on hold as Lakers governor Jeanie Buss contested her sibling's plans in court.

With no clear resolution to the Succession-esque power struggle seemingly in sight, it looks as if the re-tooled Lakers will start this season with just as many questions off the court as they have on it.

Here's a breakdown of the Los Angeles Lakers' offseason moves and what to expect from them heading into the 2026-27 NBA season:

LOS ANGELES LAKERS SCHEDULE: Dates, times and opponents for 2026-27 season